亞德諾半導體 (ADI) 2019 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Analog Devices Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2019 Earnings Conference Call, which is being audio webcast via telephone and over the web.

早上好，歡迎參加 Analog Devices 2019 年第四季度和財年收益電話會議，該電話會議正在通過電話和網絡進行音頻網絡直播。

I'd now like to introduce your host for today's call, Mr. Michael Lucarelli, Director of Investor Relations.

現在我想介紹一下今天電話會議的主持人，投資者關係總監 Michael Lucarelli 先生。

Sir, the floor is yours.

先生，地板是你的了。

Thank you, Cheryl, and good morning, everybody.

謝謝你，謝麗爾，大家早上好。

Thanks for joining our fourth quarter and fiscal 2019 conference call.

感謝您參加我們的第四季度和 2019 財年電話會議。

With me on the call today are ADI CEO, Vincent Roche; and ADI CFO, Prashanth Mahendra-Rajah.

今天與我一起參加電話會議的是 ADI 首席執行官 Vincent Roche；和 ADI 首席財務官 Prashanth Mahendra-Rajah。

For anyone who missed the release, you can find it and relating financial schedules at investor.analog.com.

對於那些錯過了該發布的人，您可以在 Investor.analog.com 上找到它以及相關的財務時間表。

Now on to the disclosures.

現在開始披露。

The information we're about to discuss, including our objectives and outlook includes forward-looking statements.

我們將要討論的信息，包括我們的目標和前景，包括前瞻性陳述。

Actual results may differ materially from these forward-looking statements as a result of various factors, including those discussed in our earnings release and our most recent 10-Q.

由於各種因素，包括我們的收益報告和最近的 10 季度報告中討論的因素，實際結果可能與這些前瞻性陳述存在重大差異。

These forward-looking statements reflect our opinion as of the date of this call.

這些前瞻性陳述反映了我們截至本次電話會議之日的觀點。

And we undertake no obligation to update these forward-looking statements in light of new information or future events.

我們沒有義務根據新信息或未來事件更新這些前瞻性陳述。

Our comments today about ADI's fourth quarter and fiscal 2019 financial results and short-term outlook will also include non-GAAP financial measures, which exclude special items.

我們今天對 ADI 第四季度和 2019 財年財務業績和短期前景的評論還將包括非 GAAP 財務指標，其中不包括特殊項目。

Comparing our results to our historical performance, special items are also excluded from prior periods.

將我們的結果與歷史業績進行比較，特殊項目也被排除在前期之外。

Reconciliations of these non-GAAP measures to their most directly comparable GAAP measures and additional information about our non-GAAP measures are included in today's earnings release.

這些非公認會計準則衡量指標與其最直接可比的公認會計準則衡量指標的對賬以及有關我們非公認會計準則衡量指標的其他信息均包含在今天的收益發布中。

As a reminder, 2018 was a 53-week year and thus included an extra week of operations.

提醒一下，2018 年是 53 週的一年，因此包括額外一周的運營。

In today's remarks, we have normalized our fiscal 2018 result to a 52-week year, so that our comments on annual growth rates make for more accurate compares.

在今天的講話中，我們將 2018 財年的結果標準化為 52 週的一年，以便我們對年增長率的評論能夠進行更準確的比較。

And with that, I'll turn it over to ADI CEO, Vincent Roche.

接下來，我會將其交給 ADI 首席執行官 Vincent Roche。

Vince?

文斯？

Thanks, Mike, and good morning to you all.

謝謝邁克，祝大家早上好。

Well, we delivered solid fourth quarter and full year results against what was a backdrop of challenging macroeconomic conditions and ongoing trade uncertainty.

在宏觀經濟形勢充滿挑戰和貿易不確定性持續存在的背景下，我們實現了穩健的第四季度和全年業績。

Importantly, we made progress positioning ADI for continued long-term success, which I will discuss in more detail shortly.

重要的是，我們在 ADI 的持續長期成功方面取得了進展，我將很快對此進行更詳細的討論。

In the fourth quarter, revenue was $1.44 billion and adjusted earnings per share was $1.19.

第四季度營收為 14.4 億美元，調整後每股收益為 1.19 美元。

For the full year, revenue was approximately $6 billion, down slightly year-over-year as double-digit growth in our communications market was offset by slower demand across other markets.

全年收入約為 60 億美元，同比略有下降，因為我們的通信市場的兩位數增長被其他市場需求放緩所抵消。

Specifically, collective revenue from our B2B markets of industrial, communications and automotive increased slightly compared to 2018, led by strong demand across the wireless communication sector.

具體而言，在無線通信行業強勁需求的帶動下，工業、通信和汽車 B2B 市場的總體收入較 2018 年略有增長。

Given the current operating conditions, we continue to actively manage our business, reducing operating expenses.

鑑於當前的經營狀況，我們繼續積極管理我們的業務，減少運營費用。

All told, full year adjusted EPS was $5.15.

總而言之，全年調整後每股收益為 5.15 美元。

We generated approximately $2 billion in free cash flow.

我們產生了大約 20 億美元的自由現金流。

While this year's 33% free cash flow margin is below our long-term operating model, we continue to be in the top 10% of companies in the S&P 500.

雖然今年 33% 的自由現金流利潤率低於我們的長期運營模式，但我們仍然位居標準普爾 500 強公司前 10% 之列。

ADI is a diverse business across customers, products and applications that positions us to succeed in any macro environment.

ADI 是一家涵蓋客戶、產品和應用的多元化業務，這使我們能夠在任何宏觀環境中取得成功。

And in 2019, we added to our cutting-edge technology portfolio through strategic investments, while partnering even closer with our customers.

2019 年，我們通過戰略投資增加了尖端技術組合，同時與客戶建立了更緊密的合作關係。

The resiliency of our business model in any economic environment is evidenced by our B2B revenue outperforming the industry in both fiscal 2018 and fiscal 2019.

我們的業務模式在任何經濟環境下都具有彈性，我們的 B2B 收入在 2018 財年和 2019 財年均優於行業，這證明了我們的業務模式。

And we're not standing still.

我們並沒有停滯不前。

To that end, let's turn to our priorities for 2020.

為此，讓我們談談 2020 年的優先事項。

Priority one is deepening customer centricity.

首要任務之一是深化以客戶為中心。

We possess the broadest product portfolio, applications expertise and manufacturing capabilities in high performance signal processing.

我們在高性能信號處理領域擁有最廣泛的產品組合、應用專業知識和製造能力。

This enables us to solve our customers' toughest challenges at the intersection of the physical and digital worlds.

這使我們能夠解決客戶在物理世界和數字世界交匯處面臨的最嚴峻的挑戰。

The factors driving customer demand are: first, our customers are facing a scarcity of available analog design engineering talent, and thus, they're increasingly turning to us for that expertise.

推動客戶需求的因素是：首先，我們的客戶面臨著可用的模擬設計工程人才的稀缺，因此，他們越來越多地向我們尋求專業知識。

Second, the challenges our customers face in the third wave of information and communications technology are becoming ever more complex.

其次，我們的客戶在第三次信息和通信技術浪潮中面臨的挑戰變得越來越複雜。

In this world, digital systems increasingly rely on real-world information to make mission-critical decisions.

在這個世界上，數字系統越來越依賴現實世界的信息來做出關鍵任務決策。

And the accuracy and the integrity of this information is becoming more important.

這些信息的準確性和完整性變得越來越重要。

As a result, our customers are partnering with us more deeply to get the full benefit of our technology capabilities and product inventions and innovations.

因此，我們的客戶正在與我們進行更深入的合作，以充分受益於我們的技術能力以及產品發明和創新。

We are uniquely positioned to provide the enabling solutions with our comprehensive portfolio of high performance mixed signal, RF and microwave and power management technologies.

我們擁有獨特的優勢，能夠通過高性能混合信號、射頻和微波以及電源管理技術的全面產品組合來提供支持解決方案。

To that end, as we enter 2020, our opportunity pipeline value is at record levels and increased more than 15% year-over-year.

為此，當我們進入 2020 年時，我們的機會渠道價值達到創紀錄的水平，並且同比增長超過 15%。

Priority 2 is the efficient use of capital.

優先事項 2 是資本的有效利用。

First, R&D is critical to our company's success.

首先，研發對於我們公司的成功至關重要。

And in 2019, we invested $1.1 billion there.

2019 年，我們在那裡投資了 11 億美元。

To continue this virtuous cycle of innovation-driven success, we choose our investments wisely and when necessary, pivot quickly, targeting the most attractive opportunities, particularly across our B2B markets.

為了繼續這種創新驅動成功的良性循環，我們明智地選擇投資，並在必要時迅速調整方向，瞄準最具吸引力的機會，特別是在我們的 B2B 市場中。

This long-term approach to R&D allows us to continue to innovate and fortifies our position against any economic backdrop.

這種長期的研發方法使我們能夠在任何經濟背景下繼續創新並鞏固我們的地位。

Second, we're extracting value from our acquisitions to complement our R&D and drive long-term value creation.

其次，我們從收購中獲取價值，以補充我們的研發並推動長期價值創造。

With the Hittite acquisition, we became the market leader in high performance RF with a portfolio that spans DC to 100 gigahertz.

通過收購 Hittite，我們成為高性能 RF 領域的市場領導者，產品組合涵蓋 DC 至 100 GHz。

Since the acquisition 5 years ago, we've more than doubled Hittite's revenue.

自 5 年前收購以來，我們已將 Hittite 的收入增加了一倍多。

And in the last year, our RF franchise revenue increased over 30%, led by industrial and wireless communications growth.

去年，在工業和無線通信增長的帶動下，我們的射頻特許經營收入增長了 30% 以上。

The LTC acquisition added high performance power management and precision signal processing to our portfolio, positioning us to provide more fully integrated solutions and capture additional value.

收購 LTC 為我們的產品組合增添了高性能電源管理和精密信號處理功能，使我們能夠提供更全面的集成解決方案並獲取額外價值。

Due to the combination with LTC, we're building our power pipeline, which is up nearly 40% over the past year and beginning to deliver new revenue streams.

由於與 LTC 的合併，我們正在建設我們的電力管道，該管道比過去一年增長了近 40%，並開始提供新的收入來源。

For example, in power, we've won designs across 5G infrastructure, data center and automotive that are moving to low volume production in 2020, ahead of a more meaningful ramp in 2021.

例如，在電力方面，我們贏得了 5G 基礎設施、數據中心和汽車領域的設計，這些設計將在 2020 年轉向小批量生產，然後在 2021 年實現更有意義的產量提升。

This puts us on a path to double the LTC historical revenue growth rates in the years ahead.

這使我們有望在未來幾年將 LTC 歷史收入增長率翻一番。

In addition, we're making steady progress on the next phase of our LTC cost synergies, which Prashanth will elaborate on in just a while.

此外，我們正在下一階段的 LTC 成本協同效應方面取得穩步進展，Prashanth 稍後將對此進行詳細說明。

Third, we're committed to delivering strong shareholder returns.

第三，我們致力於為股東提供豐厚的回報。

Our target is to return 100% of our free cash flow after debt repayments to shareholders in the form of dividends and buybacks.

我們的目標是在償還債務後以股息和回購的形式將100%的自由現金流返還給股東。

And in 2019, we returned more than 120% of our free cash flow to shareholders after debt repayments.

2019年，我們在償還債務後將超過120%的自由現金流返還給股東。

Priority 3 is capitalizing on secular trends to expand our addressable markets and drive diversified growth.

優先事項 3 是利用長期趨勢來擴大我們的潛在市場並推動多元化增長。

And some examples include, for example, in 5G wireless, we're pushing the innovation curve on our market-leading integrated transceiver by adding digital capabilities, algorithms and optimized power solutions.

一些例子包括，例如，在 5G 無線領域，我們通過添加數字功能、算法和優化的電源解決方案來推動市場領先的集成收發器的創新曲線。

This enables customers to scale channel count by 8x while managing size and thermals.

這使客戶能夠將通道數擴大 8 倍，同時管理尺寸和散熱。

And 5G isn't just about wireless, it will also require a complete re-architecting of the core and wireline network to meet the 5G vision of gigabit speeds, low latency and high reliability demanded by mission-critical applications.

5G 不僅僅涉及無線，還需要對核心和有線網絡進行徹底的重新架構，以滿足關鍵任務應用所需的千兆位速度、低延遲和高可靠性的 5G 願景。

This network expansion will require a significant upgrade of the backhaul system, opening a new revenue opportunity for ADI's optical and point-to-point microwave solutions.

此次網絡擴展需要對回程系統進行重大升級，從而為 ADI 的光纖和點對點微波解決方案帶來新的收入機會。

For electric vehicles, we have the highest performance BMS solution, providing customers with up to 20% more miles per charge than our competition.

對於電動汽車，我們擁有最高性能的 BMS 解決方案，與競爭對手相比，客戶每次充電的里程數最多可增加 20%。

Next in our road map is revolutionizing how monitoring and controlling batteries will be solved, and that is wirelessly.

我們路線圖的下一步是徹底改變電池監控和控制的解決方式，即無線方式。

This creates a more accurate, reliable and necessary approach to measurement for the entire battery life from formation to implementation to reuse.

這為從形成到實施再到再利用的整個電池壽命創建了更準確、可靠和必要的測量方法。

With the rise of Industry 4.0, factory floors are becoming more digital, within -- with greater sensing, measuring and actuating activities.

隨著工業 4.0 的興起，工廠車間變得更加數字化，並有更多的傳感、測量和驅動活動。

In turn, this creates additional demand for our precision-signal-chain franchise as well as extensions to this franchise into new areas.

反過來，這對我們的精密信號鏈特許經營權以及將此特許經營權擴展到新領域的需求產生了額外的需求。

For example, our innovative software IO solution enables greater flexibility across the factory floor, and high performance power is essential to managing heat dissipation as information density increases at the equipment level.

例如，我們的創新軟件 IO 解決方案使整個工廠車間具有更大的靈活性，隨著設備級別信息密度的增加，高性能電源對於管理散熱至關重要。

However, it's not just about our core technologies, digital factories are also creating new TAM for our suite of connectivity and sensor solutions.

然而，這不僅僅是我們的核心技術，數字工廠還在為我們的連接和傳感器解決方案套件創建新的 TAM。

And last but not least, in health care, to build upon our strong growth trajectory, we're extending our high-end component franchise with integrated modules, increasing our BOM.

最後但並非最不重要的一點是，在醫療保健領域，為了建立我們強勁的增長軌跡，我們正在通過集成模塊擴展我們的高端組件專營權，增加我們的 BOM。

We're also extending our signal processing hardware and algorithms into new areas such as glucose meters, surgical instruments and digital health applications that predict and manage chronic disease.

我們還將信號處理硬件和算法擴展到新領域，例如血糖儀、手術器械和預測和管理慢性病的數字健康應用。

So in closing, at the start of this year, I shared the adage with you that a rising tide lifts all boats and that the true test of a company's strategy and business model is its performance during the low tide.

最後，在今年年初，我跟大家分享了一句格言：水漲船高，真正考驗公司戰略和商業模式的是退潮時的表現。

Despite the external turmoil, for the full year, we posted approximately 70% gross margins, best-in-class across the semiconductor industry, and almost 41% operating margins, in line with our long-term operating model.

儘管面臨外部動盪，我們全年的毛利率約為 70%，在整個半導體行業中名列前茅，營業利潤率接近 41%，符合我們的長期運營模式。

As we look ahead, we're hopeful that market demand will improve as early as our second quarter.

展望未來，我們希望市場需求最早能在第二季度有所改善。

And in an ever-changing world, we remain focused on being agile and responsive to market dynamics, demonstrating courage in creating and seizing opportunities, showing additional prudence in our investments while driving continuous improvement across every facet of our business.

在不斷變化的世界中，我們仍然專注於靈活應對市場動態，展現創造和抓住機會的勇氣，在投資中表現出額外的謹慎，同時推動業務各個方面的持續改進。

Longer term, the data era is creating an inflection across our industry.

從長遠來看，數據時代正在給整個行業帶來變化。

I believe that ADI's prospects are extremely compelling as our product portfolio is aligned with favorable secular trends that I believe will provide tailwinds for many years to come.

我相信 ADI 的前景極其引人注目，因為我們的產品組合符合有利的長期趨勢，我相信這將在未來許多年提供順風車。

And so with that, I'll turn it over to Prashanth.

因此，我會將其交給 Prashanth。

Thank you, Vince.

謝謝你，文斯。

Good morning, everyone, and let me add my welcome to our Q4 '19 earnings call.

大家早上好，請允許我對 19 年第 4 季度的財報電話會議表示歡迎。

As usual, with the exception of revenue, and non-op expenses, my comments on the P&L and our outlook will be on a non-GAAP or adjusted basis, which excludes special items outlined in today's press release.

與往常一樣，除了收入和非運營費用之外，我對損益表和前景的評論將基於非公認會計原則或調整後的基礎上，其中不包括今天新聞稿中概述的特殊項目。

So let's start with fiscal 2019, which was a solid year for ADI.

讓我們從 2019 財年開始，這對 ADI 來說是豐收的一年。

Revenue finished at $6 billion, down a modest 2%, while our B2B revenue was up slightly despite continued trade and macro uncertainty.

收入最終達到 60 億美元，小幅下降 2%，而儘管貿易和宏觀不確定性持續存在，我們的 B2B 收入仍略有增長。

As Vince shared, our margins continue to be strong.

正如文斯分享的那樣，我們的利潤率繼續保持強勁。

Gross margins were approximately 70% and operating margins were 40.6%.

毛利率約為 70%，營業利潤率為 40.6%。

Adjusted EPS was $5.15.

調整後每股收益為 5.15 美元。

Free cash flow was approximately $2 billion.

自由現金流約為20億美元。

We repaid $850 million of debt, paid $780 million in dividends and repurchased over $600 million of stock.

我們償還了 8.5 億美元的債務，支付了 7.8 億美元的股息，並回購了超過 6 億美元的股票。

All told, after debt payments, we returned 120% of free cash flow to our shareholders.

總而言之，在償還債務後，我們將 120% 的自由現金流返還給股東。

So now let's look at the fourth quarter.

現在讓我們看看第四季度。

Revenue of $1.44 billion was down 6% year-over-year as flat industrial was offset by broad-based weakness across our other end markets.

收入為 14.4 億美元，同比下降 6%，原因是扁平工業被我們其他終端市場的廣泛疲軟所抵消。

So I'm going to go through some commentary on the individual markets.

因此，我將針對各個市場進行一些評論。

Industrial, which represented 52% of revenue in the fourth quarter, was flat year-over-year.

工業佔第四季度收入的 52%，與去年同期持平。

Trends were similar to the previous quarter where we saw strength in aerospace and defense, health care and electronic test and measurement offset by weakness across automation and memory test.

趨勢與上一季度類似，我們看到航空航天和國防、醫療保健以及電子測試和測量領域的優勢被自動化和內存測試的弱點所抵消。

These fourth quarter application trends were consistent throughout 2019.

這些第四季度的應用趨勢在 2019 年全年保持一致。

And for the full year, Industrial revenue decreased 2%.

全年工業收入下降 2%。

Our Industrial results highlight the benefits of having a diverse product portfolio and tens of thousands of customers across many applications.

我們的工業成果凸顯了擁有多樣化產品組合和跨多種應用的數万客戶的優勢。

Communications, which represented 18% of revenue in the fourth quarter, was down 19% year-over-year, with both wireless and wired down double digits.

佔第四季度收入 18% 的通信業務同比下降 19%，無線和有線業務均下降兩位數。

For the full year, comms revenue was up double digits driven by a notable pickup in 5G-related revenue.

全年通信收入在 5G 相關收入顯著增長的推動下實現了兩位數增長。

As we have mentioned, the comms market is inherently lumpy, and we believe this softness is largely timing-based.

正如我們所提到的，通信市場本質上是不穩定的，我們認為這種疲軟很大程度上是基於時間的。

We are at the early stages of the global 5G rollout, and we remain confident in our expectation that our comms revenue will grow in 2020 and beyond given our market-leading position and higher content opportunity in 5G.

我們正處於全球 5G 部署的早期階段，鑑於我們在 5G 領域的市場領先地位和更高的內容機會，我們對 2020 年及以後的通信收入將增長的預期仍然充滿信心。

Automotive, which represented 16% of revenue in the fourth quarter, was down 8%.

汽車佔第四季度收入的 16%，下降了 8%。

While BMS continues to be a bright spot, growing double digits, we did face sour headwinds, which impacted our other application areas.

雖然 BMS 仍然是一個亮點，並以兩位數的速度增長，但我們確實面臨著不利的阻力，這影響了我們的其他應用領域。

For the full year, auto revenue declined 6%, in line with the decline in vehicle sales.

全年汽車收入下降 6%，與汽車銷量的下降一致。

And in total, fourth quarter revenue from our B2B markets decreased 6% year-over-year.

總體而言，第四季度 B2B 市場收入同比下降 6%。

As Vince mentioned, full year B2B revenue increased slightly.

正如 Vince 提到的，全年 B2B 收入略有增長。

Consumer, which represented 15% of revenue in the quarter, was down 7%.

佔本季度收入 15% 的消費類業務下降了 7%。

And our performance for the full year was down 16%, in line with our outlook.

我們全年的業績下降了 16%，與我們的預期一致。

Moving on to the rest of the P&L for the fourth quarter.

接下來討論第四季度損益表的其餘部分。

Gross margin was 68.4%, a decrease of 200 basis points sequentially.

毛利率為68.4%，比上一季度下降200個基點。

Approximately 140 basis points of this decline was related to a onetime inventory charge associated with a customer within our Communications market.

這一下降的大約 140 個基點與我們通信市場內客戶的一次性庫存費用有關。

OpEx was $427 million, a decrease of more than 5% year-over-year.

運營支出為 4.27 億美元，同比下降超過 5%。

And sequentially, OpEx was down 2%, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of OpEx declines due to our discipline on discretionary spend and lower variable comp.

隨後，運營支出下降了 2%，這是由於我們對可自由支配支出的嚴格控制和較低的可變薪酬，運營支出連續第四個季度下降。

Operating margins were approximately 39%.

營業利潤率約為 39%。

Excluding the onetime charge, operating margins were above 40%.

不計一次性費用，營業利潤率超過 40%。

Interest and other expenses were down $6 million year-over-year as we continue to focus on reducing debt.

由於我們繼續專注於減少債務，利息和其他費用同比減少了 600 萬美元。

Our tax rate was 13%, which came in at the lower end of our guide.

我們的稅率為 13%，處於我們指南的較低水平。

And all told, adjusted EPS for the fourth quarter was $1.19, or $1.24 excluding the onetime inventory charge.

總而言之，第四季度調整後每股收益為 1.19 美元，不包括一次性庫存費用為 1.24 美元。

Now moving on to the balance sheet.

現在轉向資產負債表。

Sequentially, inventory dollars decreased $28 million and days declined by 5 to 124.

隨後，庫存金額減少了 2800 萬美元，天數減少了 5 至 124 天。

As a reminder, our target for inventory days is 115 to 125.

提醒一下，我們的庫存天數目標是 115 到 125。

But as we have communicated in the past, ADI is currently in the process of closing 2 legacy LTC facilities.

但正如我們過去所傳達的那樣，ADI 目前正在關閉 2 個遺留的 LTC 工廠。

During this transition, we plan to carry an additional 5 to 10 days of bridge inventory to support our customers.

在此過渡期間，我們計劃額外保留 5 到 10 天的橋樑庫存，以支持我們的客戶。

Channel inventory ended the quarter at 8.5 weeks, above our 7 to 8 week range.

本季度末渠道庫存為 8.5 週，高於我們的 7 至 8 週範圍。

For the fourth quarter, our sell-in revenue was below sell-through.

第四季度，我們的銷售收入低於銷售收入。

Fourth quarter CapEx was $51 million and for the year was $275 million or approximately 5% of revenue.

第四季度資本支出為 5100 萬美元，全年資本支出為 2.75 億美元，約佔收入的 5%。

Looking to 2020, we are forecasting CapEx to be slightly below 4%.

展望 2020 年，我們預測資本支出將略低於 4%。

And now on to the first quarter outlook for 2020.

現在展望 2020 年第一季度。

In our seasonally weaker first quarter, revenue is expected to be $1.3 billion plus or minus $50 million.

在季節性疲軟的第一季度，收入預計為 13 億美元上下 5000 萬美元。

At the midpoint of guidance, we expect B2B revenue in the aggregate to decrease mid-teens year-over-year, and there are a few items factored into this outlook.

在指導的中點，我們預計 B2B 總收入將同比下降 15%左右，並且這一前景考慮了一些因素。

First, we are planning to meaningfully reduce channel inventory in the first quarter and return to our target range of 7 to 8 weeks by the end of the second quarter.

首先，我們計劃在第一季度大幅減少渠道庫存，並在第二季度末恢復到 7 至 8 週的目標範圍。

Next, we expect 5G demand to remain modest through the end of this calendar year with a positive inflection in demand to occur in the fiscal second quarter as the global 5G rollout ramps.

接下來，我們預計 5G 需求將在今年年底保持溫和，隨著全球 5G 部署的推進，需求將在第二財季出現積極變化。

And lastly, in fiscal 2020, the Chinese New Year falls in the last week of our first quarter.

最後，在 2020 財年，農曆新年是在我們第一季度的最後一周。

So during this time there is minimal activity across our Chinese distributors.

因此，在此期間，我們的中國經銷商的活動很少。

So turning to the rest of the P&L for the first quarter.

因此，轉向第一季度損益表的其餘部分。

Op margin is expected to be approximately 36.7% at the midpoint mainly due to lower revenue and lower utilization.

預計運營利潤率中值約為 36.7%，主要是由於收入下降和利用率下降。

Our non-op expenses are expected to be approximately $49 million.

我們的非運營費用預計約為 4900 萬美元。

And for fiscal 2020, we are reducing the low end of our long-term tax rate and guiding 12% to 15%.

對於 2020 財年，我們正在降低長期稅率的下限，指導稅率為 12% 至 15%。

Based on these inputs, first quarter adjusted EPS is expected to be $1 plus or minus $0.07.

根據這些投入，第一季度調整後每股收益預計為 1 美元正負 0.07 美元。

As Vince stated, one of our priorities is the efficient use of capital, and I want to highlight the actions we are taking related to this effort in the current environment.

正如文斯所說，我們的首要任務之一是有效利用資本，我想強調一下我們在當前環境下為此採取的相關行動。

The first action is preserving working capital by managing inventory both on our balance sheet and in the channel.

第一個行動是通過管理資產負債表和渠道中的庫存來保留營運資金。

In the fourth quarter, we reduced factory utilization and plan to do so again in the first quarter.

第四季度，我們降低了工廠利用率，併計劃在第一季度再次這樣做。

To put this in context, our current factory utilization is at levels consistent with prior cycle troughs.

綜上所述，我們目前的工廠利用率與之前的周期低谷一致。

The second action is restructuring, in line with our disciplined approach to managing cost and operational efficiency.

第二項行動是重組，符合我們管理成本和運營效率的嚴格方法。

In the fourth quarter, we executed a restructuring and realignment of our business.

第四季度，我們對業務進行了重組和調整。

This restructuring, combined with the previously announced LTC facility closures, will result in $135 million of total cost savings over the next 2 years.

此次重組，加上之前宣布的 LTC 設施關閉，將在未來 2 年內節省 1.35 億美元的總成本。

As we exit 2020, we expect to realize approximately $50 million of savings with around 75% coming from OpEx and the balance from cost of goods sold.

2020 年結束時，我們預計將實現約 5000 萬美元的節省，其中約 75% 來自運營支出，其餘來自銷售商品成本。

These cost reductions will begin in the first half.

這些成本削減將於上半年開始。

And in 2021, after the facilities are closed, we expect to realize the remaining $85 million of savings in cost of goods sold.

到 2021 年，設施關閉後，我們預計將實現剩餘的 8500 萬美元的銷售成本節省。

Together, these position us to drive operating margins towards the high-end of our long-term operating model over time.

總之，這些使我們能夠隨著時間的推移將營業利潤率推向長期運營模式的高端。

And the third action is continuing to return 100% of free cash flow to shareholders after debt payments.

第三項行動是在償還債務後繼續將100%的自由現金流返還給股東。

In 2020, we plan on paying down between $300 million to $500 million of debt.

2020 年，我們計劃償還 3 億至 5 億美元的債務。

We expect to return all remaining free cash flow to shareholders through dividends and buybacks.

我們期望通過股息和回購將所有剩餘的自由現金流返還給股東。

So in summary, the external environment will continue to present headwinds at least in the near term.

綜上所述，外部環境至少在短期內仍將繼續面臨阻力。

However, as Vince noted, we are seeing early indications of improving conditions beginning in the second quarter.

然而，正如文斯指出的那樣，我們看到第二季度開始情況有所改善的早期跡象。

And with that, let me turn it back over to Mike to lead our Q&A.

接下來，讓我把它轉回給邁克來主持我們的問答。

Thanks, Prashanth.

謝謝，普拉珊特。

Okay.

好的。

Let's get to our Q&A session.

讓我們進入問答環節。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Operator, can we have our first question, please?

接線員，我們可以問第一個問題嗎？

(Operator Instructions) And our first question comes from Vivek Arya from Bank of America.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自美國銀行的 Vivek Arya。

This is Jamie Zakalik on for Vivek.

我是傑米·扎卡利克 (Jamie Zakalik)，代表維韋克 (Vivek) 發言。

My first question is on gross margins.

我的第一個問題是關於毛利率。

I know you mentioned that onetime inventory charge.

我知道您提到過一次性庫存費用。

But going forward, how should we think about the sensitivity of gross margins to sales and mix?

但展望未來，我們應該如何考慮毛利率對銷售和組合的敏感性？

And is there something else that could impact those?

還有其他什麼可能影響這些嗎？

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you for the question, Jamie.

謝謝你的提問，傑米。

So first, let me start by reiterating our model.

首先，讓我重申我們的模型。

70% is our long-term model.

70%是我們的長期模型。

And as you saw in the good times, we were operating above that, closer to 72% plus.

正如您在經濟繁榮時期看到的那樣，我們的運營水平高於這一水平，接近 72% 以上。

And in these last 2 quarters -- or last quarter and the current quarter, with some of the revenue compression, we're in the high 80s.

在過去兩個季度，或者說上個季度和本季度，由於收入有所壓縮，我們的業績處於 80 多歲的水平。

So through a cycle, we're still going to see 70s.

因此，經過一個週期，我們仍然會看到 70 年代。

But the way I kind of guide you to think about it is there are 2 factors, utilization and mix.

但我引導你思考這個問題的方式是有兩個因素：利用率和混合。

Mix doesn't change, and given kind of where the outlook is, industrial is going to be above 50%.

混合不會改變，考慮到前景，工業將超過 50%。

We have lower utilizations in the first quarter, and this is going to impact the first quarter margins and bring us down to that sub-70%.

我們第一季度的利用率較低，這將影響第一季度的利潤率，使我們的利潤率降至 70% 以下。

The first quarter does not have the reserve headwinds, but it does have the lower utilization.

第一季度沒有儲備逆風，但利用率確實較低。

So on a go-forward basis, what happens is really going to be macro dependent.

因此，從長遠來看，發生的事情實際上將取決於宏觀因素。

As volume comes back, we will have pretty significant leverage from where we are.

隨著銷量的恢復，我們將擁有相當大的槓桿作用。

And then on top of that, I just mentioned the additional cost reduction actions that we're taking, $100 million in cost synergies exiting 2021 and roughly kind of $15 million of that will come in by the end of this year.

除此之外，我剛剛提到了我們正在採取的額外成本削減行動，2021 年將產生 1 億美元的成本協同效應，其中大約 1500 萬美元將在今年年底實現。

Do you have a follow-up question, Jamie?

傑米，你還有後續問題嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Great.

偉大的。

That was helpful.

這很有幫助。

And then just a quick follow-up on the 5G comm side of things, you guys gave some great color on timing.

然後是 5G 通信方面的快速跟進，你們在時間安排上給出了一些很好的說明。

But I was just wondering if there was any specific geography or area that was weaker on the comms 5G side?

但我只是想知道是否有任何特定的地理或區域在通信 5G 方面較弱？

Or if it was more broad-based?

或者是否基礎更廣泛？

Yes.

是的。

Jamie, the downturn -- the short-term downturn here in 5G was broad-based.

Jamie，5G 的短期低迷是廣泛的。

It was all regions and all customers.

這是所有地區和所有客戶。

We'll go to our next call -- question.

我們將進行下一個電話會議——問題。

Our next question comes from Tore Svanberg from Stifel.

我們的下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Tore Svanberg。

Congratulations on managing through this environment.

祝賀您通過此環境進行管理。

So first question, if we look at revenue's down 15% year-over-year for the January quarter, how would you qualify that between; a, seasonality; b, lowering channel inventory; and c, weaker end demand?

所以第一個問題，如果我們看到 1 月份季度的收入同比下降 15%，您如何確定這一點： a、季節性； b、降低渠道庫存； c、終端需求疲軟？

Just trying to understand, between those 3, what's driving the down 15%.

只是想了解一下，在這 3 個因素中，是什麼導致了 15% 的下降。

Yes.

是的。

Thanks for the question.

謝謝你的提問。

So first, the outlook is mid-teens on B2B.

首先，B2B 的前景處於十幾歲左右。

In that sense, on a year-over-year basis, I would say Industrial does a bit better than mid-teens, maybe down about, say, 10% or so year-over-year, that implies, I would say, worse than seasonal sequential growth.

從這個意義上說，與去年同期相比，我認為工業行業的表現比十幾歲左右要好一些，也許同比下降了 10% 左右，這意味著，我想說，情況更糟高於季節性環比增長。

Part of that is demand, part of it also reducing the channel.

一部分是需求，一部分也是渠道的減少。

Automotive, it's right around that mid-teens percent down year-over-year, and comms is down a bunch more in the mid-teens and down sequentially as well.

汽車行業的同比下降幅度約為百分之十幾，而通信行業的下降幅度更大，為百分之十幾，並且連續下降。

And on Consumer, the math on that implies about 20% or so down year-over-year.

在消費者方面，計算結果表明同比下降約 20% 左右。

Tore, as a rough estimate, I'd say that, if you took the combination of what we're doing in the channel plus the impact of Chinese New Year, roughly like a $50-ish million impact on a revenue impact to kind of how we're guiding the outlook.

Tore，作為一個粗略的估計，我想說的是，如果你把我們在渠道中所做的事情加上中國新年的影響結合起來，對收入的影響大約是 50 多萬美元我們如何引導前景。

Do you have a follow-up, Tore?

托雷，你有後續嗎？

Yes.

是的。

That was really helpful.

這真的很有幫助。

So a follow-up for Vince.

這是文斯的後續行動。

Vince, you talked about connectivity now for BMS and including wireless.

Vince，您現在談到了 BMS 的連接性，包括無線連接。

I assume that is based on a proprietary WirelessHART technology?

我認為這是基於專有的 WirelessHART 技術？

If not, maybe you could elaborate a little bit on that, please?

如果沒有，也許您可以詳細說明一下，好嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Thanks for the question, Tore.

謝謝你的提問，托爾。

Yes, so we've got the highest precision battery management, the sensing and measurement portfolio.

是的，所以我們擁有最高精度的電池管理、傳感和測量產品組合。

Now to that, we are beginning to sample this wireless signal.

現在，我們開始對該無線信號進行採樣。

It's a proprietary, rugged, robust self-healing radio technology.

它是一種專有的、堅固耐用的自我修復無線電技術。

And so yes, it is proprietary based on proprietary ADI hardware as well as software stack.

是的，它是基於 ADI 專有硬件和軟件堆棧的專有技術。

Can we have our next question?

我們可以提出下一個問題嗎？

Our next question comes from Ambrish Srivastava from BMO Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的 Ambrish Srivastava。

I had a question on distribution inventory, and I'm just confused in the -- why the difference between the disti work-down, the channel work down that your Analog as well as broader diversified guys have seen versus your channel inventory went up the last quarter.

我有一個關於分銷庫存的問題，我只是很困惑 - 為什麼你的模擬以及更廣泛的多元化人員所看到的分銷工作下降、渠道工作下降與你的渠道庫存上升之間存在差異上個季度。

And so you're taking the action now.

所以你現在就採取行動。

But just wanted to understand why the difference in timing, Vince?

但只是想了解為什麼時間上有所不同，文斯？

Yes.

是的。

So just remember that we manage the business on a sell-through basis.

因此，請記住，我們是在銷售的基礎上管理業務的。

We're recording revenue on a sell-in basis.

我們以售入為基礎記錄收入。

And over the course of 2019, our sell-in was roughly equivalent to sell-through.

2019 年，我們的賣出量與售出率大致相當。

But as we've seen revenue come down towards the later part of 2019, the levels in the channel have gotten outside of our preferred range of 7 to 8. So we're taking specific action.

但正如我們看到的收入在 2019 年下半年有所下降，渠道中的水平已經超出了我們首選的 7 到 8 範圍。因此我們正在採取具體行動。

We began in Q4, we'll continue in Q1 with a goal that, by the end of Q2, we will get channel inventory kind of back in that 7- to 8-week range.

我們從第四季度開始，我們將在第一季度繼續，目標是到第二季度末，我們將使渠道庫存恢復到 7 到 8 週的範圍內。

The result is that we're going to be putting less into the channel than the channel is selling out.

結果是我們投入渠道的資金將少於渠道銷售的資金。

And the answer I gave Jamie earlier is that -- or sorry, Tore earlier, is that roughly, if you include that plus the Chinese New Year impact, which is at the end of our fiscal first quarter, is, at a rough estimate, kind of $50-ish million worth of revenue impact.

我早些時候給傑米的答案是——或者抱歉，托爾早些時候，粗略地估計，如果你把這一點加上農曆新年的影響，也就是我們第一財季末的影響，大約 5000 萬美元的收入影響。

And Ambrish, I'll just add one thing that Vince and Prashanth said in their script, our industrial business was only down about 2% last year, which I think, versus the market, was very -- performed very well.

Ambrish，我只想補充 Vince 和 Prashanth 在他們的劇本中所說的一件事，去年我們的工業業務僅下降了約 2%，我認為與市場相比，表現非常好。

So there's always timing and all the different things.

所以總是有時機和所有不同的事情。

But on a performance basis, we outperformed in '18 and again in '19.

但從業績來看，我們在 18 年和 19 年都表現出色。

Do you have a follow-up, Ambrish?

安布里什，你有後續嗎？

Yes, it did.

是的，它確實。

And this was with respect to the write-down, typically in the analog world, inventory write-down usually then results in a tailwind down the road.

這是相對於減記而言的，通常在模擬世界中，庫存減記通常會導致未來的順風車。

But I was wondering, are we seeing something different here?

但我想知道，我們在這裡看到了什麼不同的東西嗎？

And I'm assuming, it could be a wrong assumption, that this is related to Huawei.

我假設這可能是一個錯誤的假設，這與華為有關。

So does that come back?

那麼這會回來嗎？

And are you able to sell that inventory?

你能賣掉這些庫存嗎？

Or are we looking at -- we always think of analog as companies with deep moats, which I'm sure you do.

或者我們一直認為模擬公司擁有很深的護城河，我相信你也這麼認為。

But are we seeing a change at Huawei that they're also developing analog parts that go into their infrastructure?

但我們是否看到華為發生了變化，他們也在開髮用於其基礎設施的模擬部件？

Yes.

是的。

Let me take the first part of that.

讓我來談談第一部分。

And I'm going to recap what I said in the prepared comments.

我將回顧一下我在準備好的評論中所說的話。

We took a $20 million inventory reserve related to a onetime charge for a customer in the comms market.

我們為通信市場的客戶一次性收取了 2000 萬美元的庫存儲備金。

We were building to one forecast and then the demand changed pretty rapidly after they were added to the BIS entity list restriction.

我們正在建立一個預測，然後在它們被添加到國際清算銀行實體名單限制中後，需求發生了相當快的變化。

So it was our determination that it was the prudent thing to do, and absent another law change, we believe we have minimal to no more inventory exposure for this customer going forward.

因此，我們認為這是謹慎的做法，並且如果沒有另一項法律變更，我們相信我們對該客戶未來的庫存風險將降至最低甚至不再有。

Is it possible to sell some of that inventory?

是否可以出售部分庫存？

It's possible but obviously not probable given that we did take the reserve.

這是有可能的，但考慮到我們確實採取了儲備，顯然可能性不大。

Yes.

是的。

So I think the second part of your question there was regarding potential competition there in China.

所以我認為你問題的第二部分是關於中國潛在的競爭。

So I think it's not a surprise that Chinese customers are going to look for security of supply, they're going to look for alternate sources.

因此，我認為中國客戶尋求供應安全，他們將尋找替代來源，這並不奇怪。

But there's nothing to suggest that we're losing designs anywhere.

但沒有任何跡象表明我們正在失去任何設計。

And as you said, the analog market naturally has deep and wide competitive moats given the complexity of the technology, the diversity that's required to be a stable, long-term supplier into those markets.

正如您所說，鑑於技術的複雜性以及成為這些市場的穩定、長期供應商所需的多樣性，模擬市場自然擁有深厚而廣泛的競爭護城河。

And of course, the life cycles as well are very, very long.

當然，生命週期也非常非常長。

So I guess, the way to look at it -- the threat from local suppliers in China, well, it really isn't anything new.

所以我想，看待這個問題的方式——來自中國當地供應商的威脅，嗯，這確實不是什麼新鮮事。

But you know, there's a lot of other facets of -- that require just beyond the product.

但你知道，除了產品之外，還有很多其他方面需要滿足。

The quality levels we ship are in the parts per billion.

我們運送的質量水平為十億分之幾。

The support required is very, very sophisticated, very complex.

所需的支持非常非常複雜。

And I think the asymmetry between the skill set and talents that we have as an analog supplier compared to anybody else, that asymmetry is pushing more and more towards ADI.

我認為，與其他公司相比，我們作為模擬供應商所擁有的技能和人才之間的不對稱性正在越來越多地推動 ADI 的發展。

So the gap between the skills that we have and many others, that gap is growing.

因此，我們所擁有的技能與許多其他技能之間的差距正在擴大。

So I think to just finish up my commentary here on China, it's a -- it has been and will continue to be an important market.

因此，我想結束我對中國的評論，它一直是並將繼續是一個重要的市場。

And we expect to be doing a thriving business there in the years ahead for many, many, many decades.

我們預計在未來的許多年裡，我們的業務將會蓬勃發展。

Go to our next question, please.

請轉到我們的下一個問題。

Our next question comes from Toshiya Hari from Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Toshiya Hari。

Vince and Prashanth, I think you both talked about a potential recovery in demand starting in the fiscal second quarter.

文斯和普拉山斯，我認為你們都談到了從第二財季開始需求的潛在復蘇。

Is that -- was that a comment specific to comms?

那是——這是專門針對通訊的評論嗎？

Or was it more broad-based?

或者它的基礎更廣泛？

And I guess more importantly, what gives you the confidence to make those comments given the uncertainty both from a macro and trade standpoint?

我想更重要的是，考慮到宏觀和貿易角度的不確定性，是什麼讓您有信心發表這些評論？

Okay.

好的。

Why don't I start on that and, Vince, any -- if there's anything you want to add.

為什麼我不從這個開始呢，文斯，如果你有什麼要補充的。

So there's some macro and some kind of specific to ADI.

所以有一些宏和一些特定於 ADI 的東西。

So from a macro level, it's our take that we're kind of bouncing along the bottom.

因此，從宏觀層面來看，我們認為我們正在底部反彈。

Because certainly, there's ongoing uncertainty with the trade war that's impacting overall demand and customers are putting a pause on CapEx spend.

因為當然，貿易戰持續存在的不確定性正在影響整體需求，而且客戶正在暫停資本支出。

It is weaker than a year ago, but it seems to be stabilizing at this level.

它比一年前疲軟，但似乎穩定在這個水平。

For comms and 5G, there is a lull between deployment.

對於通信和 5G，部署之間存在間歇期。

As I said in the prepared remarks, comms is inherently lumpy.

正如我在準備好的發言中所說，通信本質上是不穩定的。

It's very early days on the 5G, and we're expecting demand to kind of stay soft through the end of this calendar year but pick up nicely for 2020.

5G 還處於早期發展階段，我們預計到今年年底需求將保持疲軟，但 2020 年將出現良好回升。

And as I mentioned in the remarks, we're expecting comms to grow year-over-year in 2020.

正如我在評論中提到的，我們預計 2020 年通信量將同比增長。

Specific to ADI, we've got a couple things that are impacting our first quarter.

具體到 ADI，有幾件事影響了我們第一季度的業績。

So as I had mentioned, I think we've had a couple questions on this now.

正如我所提到的，我認為我們現在對此有幾個問題。

We are proactively reducing inventory in the channel and then, on top of that, the Chinese New Year, which is normally a nonevent if it falls in the middle of a quarter, this time is falling at the end of our fiscal first quarter.

我們正在積極減少渠道中的庫存，最重要的是，農曆新年，如果在季度中期通常不會發生，但這次是在我們第一財季末。

Yes.

是的。

I think the only other thing I'd add to what Prashanth has said is that, typically, our first quarter is weaker than our second.

我認為我要補充普拉山斯所說的唯一另一件事是，通常情況下，我們的第一季度比第二季度要弱。

There is a seasonality to that, particularly in the Industrial and the Automotive businesses.

這是有季節性的，特別是在工業和汽車行業。

And that's how we see things shaping up at this point in time.

這就是我們對此時此刻事情發展的看法。

And as Prashanth just said, we're confident that 5G demand is really poised to ramp at the beginning of our second quarter.

正如 Prashanth 剛才所說，我們相信 5G 需求將在第二季度初真正增加。

So I think that's the summary of demand here for you.

我認為這就是您的需求摘要。

Thanks, Toshi, do you have a follow-up?

謝謝，Toshi，你有後續嗎？

I do.

我願意。

And then Prashanth, you talked about $135 million in cost reductions over the next, I suppose, 2 years.

然後 Prashanth，您談到了在接下來的兩年內削減 1.35 億美元的成本。

How should we think about that number kind of sticking to the P&L?

我們應該如何看待這個數字是否符合損益表？

In other words, should we expect a pretty high percentage drop through to margins?

換句話說，我們是否應該預期利潤率會出現相當高的百分比下降？

Or should we expect you guys to reinvest some of the savings in your high-priority areas?

或者我們應該期望你們將一些節省下來的資金再投資到你們的高優先級領域？

Thanks, Toshi.

謝謝，托西。

Let me break that down again.

讓我再次分解一下。

So we had talked about $100 million of cost savings when we closed down the 2 facilities.

因此，當我們關閉這兩個設施時，我們談到了節省 1 億美元的成本。

And then in addition to that, we made some -- we took some actions in the fourth quarter to generate an additional $35 million.

除此之外，我們還做了一些——我們在第四季度採取了一些行動，額外籌集了 3500 萬美元。

So those actions are in process.

因此，這些行動正在進行中。

In 2020, we would expect to exit the year with about $50 million of those savings in the run rate, and that will be split between OpEx and cost of goods sold.

到 2020 年，我們預計在運行率方面節省約 5000 萬美元，這將在運營支出和銷售成本之間分配。

We'll have those savings sort of feather in over the course of the year.

我們將在這一年中實現這些節省。

That is, at this point, kind of roughly a net number.

也就是說，在這一點上，大致是一個淨數字。

So that is -- the expectation is we're going to be able to drive most of that down through the P&L and into the EPS number.

所以，我們的預期是，我們將能夠將其中的大部分降低到損益表中，並轉化為每股收益。

We can go to our next question.

我們可以進入下一個問題。

Our next question comes from William Stein from SunTrust.

我們的下一個問題來自 SunTrust 的 William Stein。

And I want to address the optimistic April commentary.

我想談談四月份的樂觀評論。

By my math, I think normal seasonality in April's about up 3%.

根據我的計算，我認為 4 月份的正常季節性增長約為 3%。

And it sounds like the real recovering end market is comms infrastructure related to 5G.

聽起來真正復甦的終端市場是與 5G 相關的通信基礎設施。

I'm wondering if there's any insight into other end markets.

我想知道是否對其他終端市場有任何見解。

And if normal seasonality is up 3%, do you think we wind up posting meaningfully better than that?

如果正常季節性增長 3%，您認為我們最終發布的內容會比這更有意義嗎？

And any -- it would seem an outside possibility that we could be up year-over-year in that quarter, but any comments would be helpful.

任何 - 這似乎是我們在該季度同比增長的可能性，但任何評論都會有所幫助。

Thanks, Will.

謝謝，威爾。

I'll sort of give you some basis of seasonality.

我會給你一些季節性的基礎。

We don't guide outside of a quarter, I would say.

我想說，我們不會在季度之外提供指導。

We did give you some context around comms being a growth market for us in 2020 despite the slow start.

儘管起步緩慢，但我們確實向您介紹了 2020 年通信市場將成為我們的增長市場的一些背景信息。

Seasonally speaking, Industrial in 2Q is up, call it, 5% to 10% sequentially.

從季節性角度來看，第二季度工業指數環比上漲了 5% 至 10%。

Automotive is up also, I'll probably call it 5% to 10% maybe, sequentially.

汽車行業也上漲了，我可能會依次稱其為 5% 到 10%。

So both those seasonally are up.

所以這兩個季節性因素都上升了。

We don't have visibility into those orders today.

我們今天無法了解這些訂單。

But seasonally standpoint, they do -- there is some tailwinds to those businesses.

但從季節性角度來看，它們確實存在——這些業務有一些順風車。

And Communications, we're talking about a pretty big uptick in Q2, which helps drive that business to grow for 2020.

至於通信業務，我們正在談論第二季度的大幅增長，這有助於推動該業務在 2020 年實現增長。

Do you have a follow-up?

你有後續行動嗎？

Sure.

當然。

Any comment as to where we are in the comms, and -- pardon me, the Consumer end market.

關於我們在通信領域以及消費者終端市場的地位的任何評論。

We know there was this Force Touch design win that's been sort of fading from the model, you've declined this year.

我們知道，Force Touch 設計的勝利已經從模型中消失了，今年你已經拒絕了。

Maybe an outlook as to the coming year in that end market would be helpful, both in that sort of one charismatic design win and then maybe the core business.

也許對終端市場來年的展望會有所幫助，無論是在那種魅力設計的勝利方面，還是在核心業務方面。

Yes.

是的。

So my sense during 2020 is that we will have a continuing headwind.

因此，我的感覺是，2020 年我們將面臨持續的阻力。

It's lasting a little bit longer than we initially thought.

它的持續時間比我們最初想像的要長一些。

But -- so I think 2020, we expect it to be down in the range of 10% to 15%.

但是，我認為到 2020 年，我們預計這一數字將下降 10% 到 15%。

And it relates really to the ongoing mix issue in our portable business.

這確實與我們便攜式業務中持續存在的混合問題有關。

But what I'd like to report to you is that I believe, overall, that 2020 will mark the bottom for this business.

但我想向您報告的是，我相信，總體而言，2020 年將標誌著該業務的底部。

The diversity of our products, across products, across customers and applications is stronger than we've seen actually for several years.

我們的產品、跨產品、跨客戶和應用程序的多樣性比我們幾年來實際看到的更加豐富。

And so based on that diversity and the strength of our pipeline and diversity of our pipeline, that gives me the optimism that we're going to get back into a pretty solid growth trajectory, I think, in the 2021 and beyond period.

因此，基於這種多樣性以及我們的管道的實力和管道的多樣性，這讓我感到樂觀，我認為，我們將在 2021 年及以後的時期內回到相當穩健的增長軌跡。

We'll go to our next question, please.

我們將討論下一個問題。

Our next question comes from Chris Caso from Raymond James.

我們的下一個問題來自雷蒙德·詹姆斯的克里斯·卡索。

My question's on the automotive market.

我的問題是關於汽車市場的。

And I think your comments were that it's looking down 6% year-on-year this year in line with industry units.

我認為您的評論是，今年的增長率與行業單位一致，同比下降 6%。

I presume you're still gaining some content there.

我想你仍然在那裡獲得了一些內容。

So is the difference there inventory that's come down?

那麼庫存下降後有什麼區別嗎？

And perhaps you could -- if that's the case, what's the setup as we go into 2020 as perhaps some of that inventory normalizes?

也許你可以 - 如果是這樣的話，當我們進入 2020 年時，隨著部分庫存可能恢復正常，情況會怎樣？

Yes.

是的。

Thanks for the question, Chris.

謝謝你的提問，克里斯。

Let's do this in 2 parts.

讓我們分兩部分進行。

I'll kind of lay out how we're thinking about our auto performance in 2019 and then let Vince talk about a bit more on the growth drivers.

我將闡述我們如何看待 2019 年的汽車業績，然後讓 Vince 進一步討論增長動力。

So to -- as a recap, our fourth quarter was down 8% for the full year and -- sorry, our fourth quarter was down 8%, the full year was down 6% year-over-year in line with SAAR.

回顧一下，我們第四季度全年下降了 8%，而且——抱歉，我們第四季度下降了 8%，全年同比下降了 6%，與 SAAR 一致。

And we saw that across all applications on the year-over-year decline except for BMS, which continues to show very strong double-digit growth.

我們看到，除 BMS 之外的所有應用程序都同比下降，該應用程序繼續呈現非常強勁的兩位數增長。

As we look to 2020, I'll let Vince kind of talk about the outlook for auto, 2020 and beyond.

在我們展望 2020 年時，我將讓 Vince 談談 2020 年及以後的汽車前景。

Yes.

是的。

So during the past year, we've grown our pipeline of designs at -- across the globe with all the key automotive customers.

因此，在過去的一年裡，我們與全球所有主要汽車客戶一起擴大了設計渠道。

And I think one of the areas that I'm pleased -- most pleased about is in our power portfolio, which cuts across all the various sub application areas in automotive.

我認為我感到高興的領域之一——最高興的是我們的電源產品組合，它涵蓋了汽車領域的所有各個子應用領域。

I'll give you a couple of examples.

我給你舉幾個例子。

We've won an integrated power management solution for a market-leading Tier 1 radar platform.

我們贏得了市場領先的一級雷達平台的集成電源管理解決方案。

We're the key reference design at a market-leading vision camera supplier.

我們是市場領先的視覺相機供應商的關鍵參考設計。

And given the strength of our infotainment business as well in DSP and audio signal processing solutions, we've been able to bring more power management from the OTC portfolio into that particular suite of applications as well.

鑑於我們信息娛樂業務以及 DSP 和音頻信號處理解決方案的實力，我們也能夠將 OTC 產品組合中的更多電源管理引入到特定的應用套件中。

We've talked before about our A2B and -- our A2B solution.

我們之前已經討論過我們的 A2B 以及我們的 A2B 解決方案。

So today, that only represents kind of low -- very low single digits of our auto portfolio.

所以今天，這僅代表我們汽車投資組合中非常低的個位數。

But the design pipeline is gaining robustness.

但設計流程正在變得穩健。

At this point in time, we've got design wins at around 14 OEMs, and half of them are currently in production.

目前，我們已經贏得了大約 14 家 OEM 的設計，其中一半目前已投入生產。

So my sense is that, over the next 3 years, we can double the size of our A2B business.

所以我的感覺是，在未來 3 年裡，我們可以將 A2B 業務規模擴大一倍。

And also the other facet of A2B is that the TAM for it is expanding into being able to participate in active noise cancellation and power delivery.

A2B 的另一個方面是，它的 TAM 正在擴展到能夠參與主動噪聲消除和電力傳輸。

Prashanth has touched on the BMS side of things.

Prashanth 已經觸及了 BMS 方面的問題。

So that will continue to be, we believe, a strong growth driver for the company, probably up around double digits in 2020.

因此，我們相信，這將繼續成為公司強勁的增長動力，到 2020 年可能會實現兩位數左右的增長。

And on the autonomous vehicle side of things, we're sampling a CMOS-based radar solution that doubles the dynamic range against anything else that's out there from our competitors.

在自動駕駛汽車方面，我們正在對基於 CMOS 的雷達解決方案進行採樣，該解決方案的動態範圍比我們的競爭對手的其他解決方案翻倍。

So I think we have some very, very good innovation drivers in the business as well as the fact that we are bringing the LTC portfolio into many, many new accounts in new geographies.

因此，我認為我們的業務有一些非常非常好的創新驅動力，而且我們正在將 LTC 投資組合引入新地區的許多新客戶。

So hopefully, that gives you a sense for what's going on in the auto sector.

希望這能讓您了解汽車行業正在發生的事情。

Thanks, Chris.

謝謝，克里斯。

Do you have a follow-up?

你有後續行動嗎？

I do.

我願意。

The follow-up question will be on production.

後續問題將涉及生產。

You talked about being at cycle trough utilization rates.

您談到了利用率處於週期低谷。

What would be the plan going forward if you did see some of these indications of improvement going into the second quarter?

如果您確實看到第二季度出現一些改善跡象，那麼接下來的計劃是什麼？

Would the plan be to start increasing production at that point?

計劃是否會在那時開始增加產量？

And generally, how are you looking to manage inventory as you go through next year with an understanding that you're going to be keeping some of that bridge inventory for the fab closures?

一般而言，您打算如何在明年管理庫存，並了解您將保留一些過渡庫存以應對晶圓廠關閉？

Right.

正確的。

Yes.

是的。

Thanks, Chris.

謝謝，克里斯。

So yes, so the -- I guess, the way to think about it is utilizations are -- we're comfortable utilizations are at trough levels, so as -- and you can see the impact of that on our gross margins.

所以，是的，所以——我想，考慮利用率的方式是——我們對利用率處於低谷水平感到滿意，所以——你可以看到這對我們毛利率的影響。

So as the demand comes back and revenue improves, then we'll have great leverage from an internal manufacturing on being able to capture that demand with new manufacturing.

因此，隨著需求的回升和收入的改善，我們將從內部製造中獲得巨大的槓桿作用，從而能夠通過新的製造來捕獲需求。

And then in addition to that, we mentioned we're taking the channel down.

除此之外，我們提到我們正在關閉該頻道。

So there will also be likely some opportunity to provide product into the channel to meet that growth.

因此，也可能有一些機會向渠道提供產品來滿足這種增長。

So we're setting ourselves up for what we believe is a good trough in Q1, and then we'll grow from here.

因此，我們正在為我們認為第一季度的良好低谷做好準備，然後我們將從這裡開始增長。

And Cheryl, we'll move to our last question, please.

謝麗爾，我們將討論最後一個問題。

Our last question comes from Harsh Kumar from Piper Jaffray.

我們的最後一個問題來自 Piper Jaffray 的 Harsh Kumar。

Thanks for managing the business extremely well and actually taking actions to get better profitability.

感謝您出色地管理業務並實際採取行動以獲得更好的盈利能力。

I had one on gross margin.

我有一個毛利率。

So all things put together, based on what you've said, we should think about gross margins for the January quarter, take the 140 bps charge that you had.

因此，根據您所說的，將所有因素放在一起，我們應該考慮 1 月份季度的毛利率，採用您所收取的 140 個基點的費用。

Prashanth, is that a good way to think about it and down maybe 50, 60 basis points?

Prashanth，這是一個思考這個問題的好方法嗎？也許會下降 50、60 個基點？

I think maybe you're saying the same thing, Harsh, but we're going to -- we're essentially going to swap the inventory charge with the underutilization.

我想也許你說的是同樣的事情，嚴厲，但我們將——我們本質上將用未充分利用的庫存費用來交換。

So that's probably how you should think about gross margin for the first quarter is we don't have the recurring inventory charge, but we do have the headwind from kind of trough factory utilization levels as we kind of bottom out in the first quarter.

因此，這可能就是您應該如何看待第一季度的毛利率，因為我們沒有經常性庫存費用，但我們確實面臨工廠利用率低谷的不利因素，因為我們在第一季度觸底反彈。

Do you have a follow-up, Harsh?

哈什，你有後續嗎？

Yes, please.

是的，請。

And then just real quickly, in the auto business next year, do you think with all that's happened this year with the [flushing] of production and SAAR being down mid- to high -- 6% to 7%.

然後很快，在明年的汽車行業，你認為今年發生的所有事情都會導致產量下降和 SAAR 下降到中高水平——6% 到 7%。

Do you think we're at a point where we can basically say that Automotive for ADI will grow next year on a year-over-year basis?

您認為我們現在基本上可以說 ADI 的汽車業務明年將同比增長嗎？

Well, it's very, very hard in what has been a very uncertain environment in automotive over the last several quarters.

嗯，在過去幾個季度汽車行業非常不確定的環境中，這是非常非常困難的。

Very, very hard to call.

非常非常難打電話。

I think if SAAR stabilizes, my sense is that we'll have a normal year.

我認為如果 SAAR 穩定下來，我的感覺是我們將度過一個正常的一年。

And for the last 5 years, we've been outgrowing SAAR.

在過去 5 年裡，我們的增長速度已經超過了 SAAR。

So my expectation is that if SAAR stabilizes, given the length of the product life cycles of our legacy business as well as the new designs we have, that the business should behave normally, we should have growth [SAAR].

因此，我的期望是，如果 SAAR 穩定下來，考慮到我們傳統業務的產品生命週期的長度以及我們擁有的新設計，業務應該表現正常，我們應該有增長 [SAAR]。

So one of the things as well that we've got -- I think we've mentioned in the prepared remarks as well, is that our power business is poised given the design wins that we've got across infotainment and safety systems, in particular, we expect that during the course of the year here to gain momentum and start to show meaningful revenue in the 2021 period.

因此，我們所擁有的一件事 - 我想我們在準備好的評論中也提到過，鑑於我們在信息娛樂和安全系統方面取得的設計勝利，我們的電力業務已做好準備，特別是，我們預計今年將獲得動力，並在 2021 年開始顯示出可觀的收入。

And thank you, everyone, for joining us this morning.

感謝大家今天早上加入我們。

A copy of the transcript will be available on our website, and all of available reconciliations and information can also be found there.

我們的網站上將提供文字記錄的副本，所有可用的核對和信息也可以在那裡找到。

Have a happy Thanksgiving, and thank you, again.

祝您感恩節快樂，再次感謝您。

This concludes today's Analog Devices conference call.

今天的 Analog Devices 電話會議到此結束。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連接。