Arch Capital Group Ltd (ACGLN) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the 3Q 2025 Arch Capital earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded.

各位女士、先生，大家好，歡迎參加 Arch Capital 2025 年第三季業績電話會議。（操作員說明）提醒各位，本次電話會議正在錄音。

Before the company gets started with its update, management wants to first remind everyone that certain statements in yesterday's press release and discussed on this call may constitute forward-looking statements under the federal securities laws. These statements are based upon management's current assessments and assumptions and are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties. Consequently, actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied. For more information on the risks and other factors that may affect future performance, investors should review periodic reports that are filed by the company with the SEC from time to time, including our annual report on Form 10-K for the 2024 fiscal year.

在公司開始更新之前，管理層首先要提醒大家，昨天新聞稿中的某些陳述以及本次電話會議中討論的某些陳述可能構成聯邦證券法意義上的前瞻性陳述。這些聲明是基於管理階層目前的評估和假設，並受到許多風險和不確定性的影響。因此，實際結果可能與明示或暗示的結果有重大差異。有關可能影響未來業績的風險和其他因素的更多信息，投資者應查閱公司不時向美國證券交易委員會提交的定期報告，包括我們 2024 財年的 10-K 表格年度報告。

Additionally, certain statements contained in the call that are not based on historical facts are forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. The company intends the forward-looking statements in the call to be subject to the Safe Harbor created thereby. Management also will make reference to certain non-GAAP measures of financial performance. The reconciliation to GAAP for non-GAAP financial measures can be found in the company's current report on Form 8-K furnished to the SEC yesterday, which contains the company's earnings press release and is available on the company's website at www.archgroup.com and on the SEC website at www.sec.gov.

此外，電話會議中包含的某些並非基於歷史事實的陳述，屬於 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》意義上的前瞻性陳述。本公司希望此次電話會議中的前瞻性陳述能夠受到相關法律法規所規定的「安全港」條款的保護。管理階層也會提及某些非公認會計準則的財務績效指標。有關非 GAAP 財務指標與 GAAP 的調節表，請參閱公司昨天向美國證券交易委員會提交的 8-K 表格當前報告，該報告包含公司的盈利新聞稿，可在公司網站 www.archgroup.com 和美國證券交易委員會網站 www.sec.gov 上查閱。

And I would like to introduce your host for today's conference, Mr. Nicolas Papadopoulo and Mr. Francois Morin. Sirs, you may begin.

我謹向大家介紹今天會議的主持人，尼可拉斯‧帕帕多普洛先生和弗朗索瓦‧莫蘭先生。先生們，你們可以開始了。

Good morning, and welcome to Arch's third-quarter earnings call. We delivered record results in the quarter with over $1 billion of after-tax operating income and over $1.3 billion of net income, both up 37% year over year. After-tax operating earnings per share of $2.77, another record, represented an 18.5% annualized operating return on average common equity. These results reinforce the strengths of our diversified platform, which enables our underwriters to pursue opportunities and deploy capital across the enterprise. Meaningful contribution for all three segments, combined with solid investment returns, push year-to-date book value per share growth to 17.3%.

早安，歡迎參加Arch第三季財報電話會議。本季我們取得了創紀錄的業績，稅後營業收入超過 10 億美元，淨收入超過 13 億美元，均較去年同期成長 37%。稅後每股營業收益為 2.77 美元，再次創下紀錄，相當於普通股平均年化營業報酬率 18.5%。這些結果鞏固了我們多元化平台的優勢，使我們的承銷商能夠在整個企業範圍內尋求機會並部署資本。三大業務部門的顯著貢獻，加上穩健的投資回報，推動今年迄今每股帳面價值成長 17.3%。

Our quarterly consolidated combined ratio of 79.8% reflect excellent underwriting and low cat activity in the quarter. Big picture, our nine months combined ratio of 83.6%, which include the impact of California wildfires and severe convective storms, highlight the strong underwriting performance across our businesses.

本季綜合比率為 79.8%，反映了本季優異的承保業績和較低的巨災風險。從宏觀角度來看，我們九個月的綜合比率為 83.6%，其中包括加州野火和強對流風暴的影響，凸顯了我們各項業務強勁的承保業績。

Now some comments about market conditions. As you have heard on other calls, competition is generally increasing. As cycle managers, we lean into the strengths of our brand, including underwriting discipline and using risk-based pricing tools to generate profitable business. We deploy capital into businesses we believe will generate superior risk-adjusted returns.

現在談談市場狀況。正如您在其他電話會議中聽到的那樣，競爭總體上正在加劇。作為週期管理者，我們充分發揮品牌優勢，包括嚴格的承保紀律和使用基於風險的定價工具來創造盈利業務。我們將資金投入到我們認為能夠產生優異風險調整後收益的企業。

However, given relatively weaker market pricing and an attractive entry point for our stock, we repurchased $732 million of shares in the quarter. Critically, our strong balance sheet and strong capital-generating capabilities permit us to both invest in our business and return capital to investors. Our objective is clear throughout the cycle: to maximize return for our shareholders over the long term.

然而，鑑於市場價格相對疲軟，且我們的股票有有吸引力的入場點，我們在本季度回購了價值 7.32 億美元的股票。至關重要的是，我們強大的資產負債表和強大的資本創造能力使我們能夠既投資於自身業務，又向投資者返還資本。我們的目標在整個週期中都很明確：那就是在長期內為股東實現最大回報。

Importantly, I want to emphasize that we are actively looking to deploy as much capital as possible towards attractive underwriting opportunities. Our playbook remains consistent: allocate capital to attractive opportunities that meet our risk-adjusted target returns, pursue profitable growth while prioritizing renewals that meet our return thresholds, and take full advantage of our operating flexibility across Insurance, Reinsurance, and Mortgage. Over time, this playbook has been key in enabling us to deliver consistently strong returns without regard to market cycles.

重要的是，我想強調，我們正在積極尋求將盡可能多的資金投入到有吸引力的承保機會中。我們的策略始終如一：將資本分配給符合我們風險調整後目標回報的有吸引力的機會，在追求盈利增長的同時優先考慮符合我們回報門檻的續約，並充分利用我們在保險、再保險和抵押貸款方面的運營靈活性。隨著時間的推移，這套策略一直是我們在不受市場週期影響的情況下持續獲得強勁回報的關鍵。

I will now provide some color from our reporting segment, starting with our Property and Casualty Insurance group. Underwriting income for the quarter was $129 million, up 8% year over year on nearly $2 billion of net premium return. Our combined ratio was 93.4%, with a current accident share ex-cat combined ratio of 91.3%, reflecting the strong underlying margins of our Insurance portfolio.

接下來，我將從我們的報道部門為大家介紹一些情況，首先從我們的財產和意外保險部門開始。本季承保收入為 1.29 億美元，年增 8%，淨保費收入近 20 億美元。我們的綜合比率為 93.4%，目前事故分攤（不包括巨災）綜合比率為 91.3%，反映了我們保險業務強勁的潛在利潤率。

A distinguishing strength of our Insurance segment is its breadth across specialty lines, areas where our team applied deep knowledge and experience to drive better risk selection. Successfully navigating a transitioning market demands that our underwriters employ the capabilities and experience they have developed to leverage our differentiated offerings and market leadership position as we look to drive profitable returns.

我們保險業務的顯著優勢在於其涵蓋的專業領域之廣，我們的團隊在這些領域運用了深厚的知識和經驗，以便更好地進行風險選擇。成功駕馭不斷變化的市場要求我們的核保人員運用他們所培養的能力和經驗，利用我們差異化的產品和服務以及市場領導地位，以期獲得獲利回報。

When compared to the third quarter last year, we grew net return premium in North America other liability occurrence by 17%, supported by growth in middle market and double-digit rate increase in E&S casualty. Net written premium in our North America property and short-tail book increased 15%. Growth in middle market admitted property more than offset declines in excess and surplus property. International premium volume was essentially flat.

與去年第三季相比，北美其他責任險的淨回報保費增加了 17%，這得益於中端市場的成長以及 E&S 意外險兩位數的費率成長。我們在北美的財產險和短期保險業務的淨保費收入成長了 15%。中等價位合法房產的成長超過了超額和剩餘房產的下降。國際保費收入基本持平。

A strategic element of our Insurance growth is our middle market business in North America, which was significantly enhanced through the MidCorp and entertainment acquisition last year. As discussed previously, the acquired business provides a significant platform from which we intend to build further scale in the middle market sectors. Importantly, it is already driving growth and yielding tangible returns.

我們保險業務成長的策略要素之一是我們在北美的中端市場業務，該業務去年透過收購 MidCorp 和娛樂業得到了顯著增強。如前所述，收購的業務為我們提供了一個重要的平台，我們打算以此為基礎，在中端市場領域進一​​步擴大規模。重要的是，它已經推動了成長並帶來了切實的回報。

At the outset, we set three integration priorities for the acquired business: rollover the portfolio, remediate less attractive areas, and separate from legacy systems. We have completed the portfolio rollover. Remediation and separation are on target. Even though there is still work to do, we remain excited about this opportunity, which has been well received by our distribution partners.

一開始，我們為收購的業務設定了三個整合優先事項：延續產品組合、改進不太有吸引力的領域以及與遺留系統分開。我們已完成投資組合轉移。補救和隔離工作進展順利。儘管還有一些工作要做，但我們仍然對這個機會感到興奮，我們的分銷合作夥伴也對此表示歡迎。

Next, to Reinsurance, which delivered another strong quarter with a record of $482 million of underwriting income. The 76.1% combined ratio was a significant improvement over last year's cat-heavy third quarter and illustrates our ability to generate attractive underwriting returns.

其次是再保險業務，該業務又迎來了一個強勁的季度，承保收入創下 4.82 億美元的紀錄。76.1% 的綜合比率較去年受巨災影響較大的第三季有了顯著改善，這表明我們有能力產生有吸引力的承保回報。

Net premiums written were $1.7 billion, down roughly 11% year over year, reflecting current pricing conditions in short-tail and property cat lines and increased retention by cedents. The diversity of our insurance platform means we aren't overly concentrated in any one line. For example, property cat, which has been a hot topic of recent industry conferences, represents only 14% of Reinsurance total net premium return for the training 12 months ended September 30.

淨保費收入為 17 億美元，年減約 11%，反映了短期險和財產巨災險的當前定價狀況以及分保人增加的留存率。我們保險平台的多元化意味著我們不會過度集中於任何單一業務領域。例如，財產巨災險一直是近期行業會議的熱門話題，但在截至 9 月 30 日的 12 個月培訓期內，它僅佔再保險總淨保費回報的 14%。

Our diversified reinsurance platform, supported by strong partnership with our broker and ceding company across multiple lines and geographies, further enhances our ability to navigate a competitive environment. We continue to like our prospects in most lines of business, and with improving conditions in casualty lines, our agility and ability to create opportunities is an advantage for us in this market.

我們多元化的再保險平台，以及與我們在多個險種和地區的經紀公司和分出公司的強大合作關係，進一步增強了我們在競爭激烈的環境中應對挑戰的能力。我們依然看好大多數業務領域的前景，隨著意外險業務狀況的改善，我們的靈活性和創造機會的能力是我們在這個市場中的優勢。

Moving to Mortgage, which continues to operate exceptionally well, generating $260 million of underwriting income for the quarter. The segment remains on pace to deliver approximately $1 billion of underwriting income for the year and is a steady diversifying contributor to Arch's earnings. While Mortgage originations remain modest due to affordability challenge, our high-quality in-force portfolio continues to outperform expectations. We are well positioned to support first-time homebuyers when the US housing market eventually expands. The broader mortgage insurance market remains healthy with disciplined underwriting and stable pricing.

接下來是抵押貸款業務，該業務繼續保持非常優異的營運水平，本季創造了 2.6 億美元的承銷收入。該業務部門仍有望在今年實現約 10 億美元的承保收入，並為 Arch 的收益做出穩定多元化的貢獻。儘管由於負擔能力的挑戰，抵押貸款發放量仍然不高，但我們高品質的現有貸款組合繼續超出預期。當美國房地產市場最終擴張時，我們已做好充分準備，為首次購屋者提供支援。整體抵押貸款保險市場仍健康，承保規範，定價穩定。

Now turning to investments, where strong earnings and cash flow grew investable assets to $46.7 billion this quarter, with net investment income of $408 million, a quarterly record for Arch. We continue to position the portfolio to remain conservative in the current environment with an eye towards generating reliable and sustainable earnings and cash flows for the group.

現在來看看投資方面，強勁的獲利和現金流使本季可投資資產成長至 467 億美元，淨投資收益為 4.08 億美元，創下 Arch 的季度紀錄。在當前環境下，我們持續調整投資組合，保持保守策略，著眼於為集團創造可靠、可持續的收益和現金流。

To conclude my opening remarks, I want to emphasize that we manage Arch with a long-term lens. That was true in the past. It is true today, and it will be true tomorrow. Market cycles span years, not quarters. And in a transitioning environment, our focus remains on producing superior returns and profitable growth.

最後，我想強調，我們以長遠的眼光來管理 Arch。過去的確如此。今天如此，明天也如此。市場週期以年為單位，而非以季度為單位。在不斷變化的環境中，我們仍然專注於創造卓越的回報和獲利成長。

Our ability to remain successful is rooted in our differentiated customer experience, superior risk-based pricing, and the creativity of our underwriting teams, which are empowered and incentivized to generate profitable business aligned with shareholder value. Today, we are well positioned to outperform in an increasingly competitive market. Our strong capital position gives us the flexibility to invest in the most attractive risk-adjusted opportunities, whether in the business or by returning capital to shareholders. This transitioning market is a moment to lean into our strengths with confidence and clarity.

我們能夠保持成功，是因為我們擁有差異化的客戶體驗、卓越的基於風險的定價機制，以及我們承保團隊的創造力。這些團隊被賦予權力並受到激勵，以創造與股東價值一致的獲利業務。如今，我們已做好充分準備，在競爭日益激烈的市場中脫穎而出。我們雄厚的資本實力使我們能夠靈活地投資於最具吸引力的風險調整後機會，無論是投資企業本身還是向股東返還資本。目前市場正處於轉型期，我們應該充滿信心、思路清晰地發揮自身優勢。

I now turn the call over to Francois before returning to answer your questions.

現在我將把電話轉給弗朗索瓦，稍後再回來回答您的問題。

Thank you, Nicolas, and good morning to all. Last night, we reported our third-quarter results with after-tax operating income of $2.77 per share and an annualized net income return on average common equity of 23.8%. Book value per share grew by 5.3% in the quarter. Similar to last quarter, our three business segments delivered excellent underlying results, with an overall ex-cat accident year combined ratio of 80.5%, down 40 basis points from last quarter.

謝謝你，尼可拉斯，大家早安。昨晚，我們公佈了第三季業績，稅後每股營業收入為 2.77 美元，普通股年化淨收益回報率為 23.8%。本季每股帳面價值成長了5.3%。與上季類似，我們的三大業務部門都取得了優異的基礎業績，除巨災事故外，年度綜合比率為 80.5%，比上季下降了 40 個基點。

Our underwriting income included $103 million of favorable prior year development on a pre-tax basis in the third quarter or 2.4 points on the overall combined ratio. We recognized favorable development across all three of our segments and in many of our lines of business. The most significant improvements were, once again, seen in our short-tail lines in our P&C segments and in Mortgage due to strong cure activity.

第三季度，我們的承保收入包括稅前上年同期有利發展帶來的 1.03 億美元收益，或使整體綜合比率下降 2.4 個百分點。我們發現，我們所有三個業務部門和許多業務線都取得了良好的發展。由於強有力的補救措施，我們的財產險和抵押貸款保險的短期險種再次取得了最顯著的改善。

Current year catastrophe losses were low at $72 million net of reinsurance and reinstatement premiums in what is typically our most active quarter for catastrophes. The Insurance segment's net premiums written grew by 7.3% compared to the same quarter one year ago, mostly due to the contribution of the MidCorp and entertainment unit for a full three months this quarter compared to only two months from the same quarter one year ago.

本年度巨災損失較低，扣除再保險和恢復保險費後淨額為 7,200 萬美元，而本季通常是我們巨災最活躍的季度。與去年同期相比，保險業務的淨保費收入增長了 7.3%，這主要是由於本季度中型企業和娛樂部門貢獻了整整三個月的收入，而去年同期只有兩個月的收入。

The ex-cat accident-year loss ratio improved by 10 basis points to 57.5% compared to the same quarter one year ago. And the 220 basis point increase in the acquisition expense ratio is primarily due to the benefit we observed in the third quarter of 2024 from the write-off of deferred acquisition costs for the acquired business at closing under purchase GAAP.

與去年同期相比，剔除巨災事故後的年度損失率改善了10個基點，達到57.5%。收購費用率上升 220 個基點，主要是由於我們在 2024 年第三季觀察到的收益，即根據購買 GAAP 在交易完成時沖銷了被收購業務的遞延收購成本。

Profit commissions paid for prior accident years also explain some of the increase from the same quarter one year ago by approximately 40 basis points. The Reinsurance segment produced its best quarter ever in terms of pre-tax underwriting income at $482 million, a direct reflection of the strong underlying profitability of the business written over the last few quarters and the absence of significant catastrophe activity in the quarter.

先前事故年度支付的利潤佣金也解釋了與去年同期相比成長約 40 個基點的部分原因。再保險業務部門的稅前承保收入達到 4.82 億美元，創歷史新高，這直接反映了過去幾個季度業務強勁的潛在盈利能力以及本季度沒有發生重大災害事件。

Overall, net written premium was down by approximately 10.7% from the same quarter one year ago. Of note, approximately 75% of the overall reduction is the result of two large transactions from the third quarter in 2024 in our specialty line of business that did not renew this quarter. The absence of reinstatement premiums also negatively impacted our top line this quarter.

總體而言，淨保費收入比去年同期下降了約 10.7%。值得注意的是，整體減少額的約 75% 是由於我們專業業務線中 2024 年第三季的兩筆大額交易在本季度未能續約所致。本季複效保費的缺失也對我們的營收產生了負面影響。

Our ex-cat accident year combined ratio remains very strong at 76.8%, reflecting the robust level of underwriting margins in our book of business. Once again, our Mortgage segment delivered another very strong quarter with underwriting income of $260 million. The improvement from last quarter was primarily due to a lower level of ceded premiums as a result of the tender offers we executed in the second quarter for two Bellemeade Re securities. There was also a slight benefit due to a higher level of cancellations on CRT transactions.

我們的非巨災事故年度綜合比率仍然非常強勁，為 76.8%，反映出我們業務組合中承保利潤率的穩健水準。我們的抵押貸款業務再次取得了非常強勁的季度業績，承銷收入達到 2.6 億美元。與上一季相比，業績的改善主要歸功於我們在第二季對兩份 Bellemeade Re 證券執行的要約收購，從而降低了已轉讓保費的水平。由於 CRT 交易的取消率較高，也帶來了一些好處。

The delinquency rate of our USMI business increased to 2.04%, in line with our expectations due to seasonality in the business. On the investment front, we earned a combined $542 million from net investment income and income from funds accounted using the equity method or $1.44 per share pre-tax. Net investment income remains an important source of income for us, and with the help of strong positive cash flow from operations, $2.2 billion in the quarter, it should continue to grow in line with the size of our investment portfolio. The allocation of our portfolio remain neutral relative to our targeted benchmark.

由於業務的季節性因素，我們的美國、密西根州和印度（USMI）業務的違約率上升至 2.04%，符合我們的預期。在投資方面，我們透過淨投資收益和採用權益法核算的基金收益，共獲得 5.42 億美元的收入，即稅前每股 1.44 美元。淨投資收益仍然是我們重要的收入來源，並且得益於本季強勁的正向經營現金流（22億美元），它應該會繼續隨著我們投資組合規模的擴大而成長。我們的投資組合配置相對於目標基準保持中立。

Income from operating affiliates was strong at $62 million due especially to a very good quarter at Somers Re. Our operating effective tax rate on a year-to-date basis stands at 14.7% and reflects the mix of income by tax jurisdiction. It is slightly below the 16% to 18% previously guided range, mostly due to a 1.7% benefit from discrete items. As of October 1, our peak zone, natural cat, probable maximum loss for a single event, 1-in-200 year of return level, on a net basis, remained flat at $1.9 billion and now stands at 8.4% of tangible shareholders' equity. Our PML remains well below our internal limit.

由於 Somers Re 的一個季度業績非常出色，來自營運附屬公司的收入強勁，達到 6,200 萬美元。今年迄今為止，我們的實際營業稅率為 14.7%，反映了按稅收管轄區劃分的收入組成。略低於先前指導的 16% 至 18% 的範圍，主要是由於個別項目帶來的 1.7% 的收益。截至 10 月 1 日，我們的高峰區域、自然災害、單次事件可能的最大損失、200 年一遇的回報水準（淨值）保持不變，為 19 億美元，目前佔有形股東權益的 8.4%。我們的PML值仍然遠低於內部限制。

On the capital management front, we repurchased 732 million of our shares in the quarter and added $250 million to this number so far in October. On a year-to-date basis, we have repurchased 15.1 million shares, representing 4% of the outstanding number of common shares at the start of the year. As Nicholas mentioned, our balance sheet is stronger than it's ever been, and it remains a significant asset for us as we focus on executing our playbook and leveraging the value of the Arch brand as we move forward in this dynamic market.

在資本管理方面，我們本季回購了 7.32 億股股票，10 月至今又增加了 2.5 億美元。今年迄今為止，我們已回購了 1,510 萬股股票，佔年初已發行普通股總數的 4%。正如尼古拉斯所提到的，我們的資產負債表比以往任何時候都更加強勁，在我們專注於執行我們的戰略計劃並利用 Arch 品牌的價值在這個充滿活力的市場中前進的過程中，它仍然是我們的一項重要資產。

With these introductory comments, we are now prepared to take your questions.

以上是開場白，現在我們準備回答各位的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Elyse Greenspan, Wells Fargo.

（操作員說明）伊莉絲‧格林斯潘，富國銀行。

My first question is just on capital. The level of buyback went up in the quarter, so I guess, my question is maybe two-pronged. Just how do we think about the level of buybacks going forward, just given the strong earnings this year? And then I know, last year, you guys had gone the route of a pretty substantial special dividend, so is this year the route more of buyback versus a special in terms of capital return?

我的第一個問題是關於資本的。本季股票回購水準上升，所以我想我的問題可能有兩個面向。鑑於今年強勁的獲利表現，我們該如何看待未來的股票回購規模？我知道，去年你們採取了派發數額相當大的特別股息的方式，那麼今年在資本回報方面，你們是更傾向於股票回購而不是派發特別股息呢？

Yeah. The last one, I think it's -- for us, we think of those as two options, but most likely not going to do both at the same time. So in this current environment where, yes, we certainly see our earnings profile being very strong and we think there's, as we've seen, right, limited opportunities for us to grow aggressively in the business. So capital return to shareholders will remain a focus, and given the stock price, I think share buybacks will be our preferred method going forward, at least for the short term. We'll see how things play out moving forward, but that's obviously something we talk with our Board on a regular basis.

是的。最後一個，我認為——對我們來說，我們認為這是兩個選擇，但很可能不會同時進行。因此，在當前的環境下，是的，我們當然看到我們的獲利狀況非常強勁，而且正如我們所看到的，我們認為，在業務上實現激進成長的機會有限。因此，向股東返還資本仍將是我們的關注點，鑑於目前的股價，我認為股票回購將是我們未來至少在短期內首選的方法。接下來事態將如何發展，我們拭目以待，但這顯然是我們與董事會定期討論的問題。

So I'd say that's kind of where we're at. And again, balance sheet remains very strong. So is there room for us to do more buybacks as we move forward? And I think the answer is definitely yes and something we'll keep evaluating as we move forward.

所以我覺得我們目前的狀況大概就是這樣。此外，資產負債表依然非常穩健。那麼，隨著公司的發展，我們還有機會進行更多股票回購嗎？我認為答案肯定是肯定的，我們會隨著工作的進展不斷評估這個問題。

And then my second question is just on the insurance premium growth. So we've annualized the MidCorp deal, but there is going to be some impact from non-renewals there and obviously, just the overall market, which is softening in spots. So how do we think -- as you guys think about pricing, the combination of the non-renewals on MidCorp, how do you guys see the premium growth outlook for your Insurance book from here?

我的第二個問題是關於保險費成長的。所以我們把 MidCorp 的交易按年結算，但是不續約肯定會產生一些影響，而且顯然，整體市場在某些方面也在走軟。那麼，當你們考慮定價時，考慮到 MidCorp 的不續保情況，你們如何看待保險業務的保費成長前景？

Yes, good morning, Elyse. Yes, on the Insurance side, I think we're still very much bullish about the business. I think we like the market we trade in, and we would like to grow. And we talk about profitable growth. That's what we're really focusing on. And you have to divide the market in three broad categories, first one being areas where we still see some rate increase. Casualty will be the main one, and the middle market business, where we think with the rate increase, and I think we have the propensity to grow. Then the second segment, which is the one that had witnessed headwinds in the past, which is mostly professional lines, whether it's D&O or cyber. The good news there, I think, the rate decrease really moderated on the D&O, pretty flat. And on cyber, there are signs that they are moderating, so that should be less of a headwinds going forward. And third, it's really the property, whether it's the large account property and the E&S property. The good news for us is that we don't write much of the shared and layer property business, and we have a relatively small footprint on the E&S side, which is really under a lot of pressure today. So I think overall, if I look at the outlook for us and our positioning in the London market as well, if I look at the outlook, I would expect us to have the ability on the Insurance to grow better than the market we play in.

是的，早安，伊莉絲。是的，就保險業務而言，我認為我們仍然非常看好這個行業。我認為我們喜歡我們所處的市場，並且我們希望發展壯大。我們談論的是獲利性成長。這才是我們真正關注的重點。你必須將市場分為三大類，第一類是我們仍然看到利率上漲的地區。意外險將是主要業務，中端市場業務也將如此，我們認為隨著費率上漲，我們有成長的潛力。其次是第二部分，也就是過去曾遭遇逆風的部分，主要是專業責任險，無論是董事及高階主管責任險或網路安全險。我認為好消息是，董事及高階主管責任險的費率下降幅度確實放緩了，基本上持平。在網路方面，有跡象表明他們正在進行管控，因此未來這方面的阻力應該會減少。第三，關鍵在於資產本身，無論是大客戶資產或 E&S 資產。對我們來說，好消息是我們並不怎麼涉及共享和分層屬性業務，而且我們在環境和社會方面的業務規模相對較小，而環境和社會方面目前確實面臨著很大的壓力。所以總的來說，我認為，如果我審視一下我們的前景以及我們在倫敦市場的定位，如果我展望前景，我預計我們在保險領域的成長能力將優於我們所處的市場。

That's helpful. And then just one last one. There's a hurricane out there right now with the potential to impact the Caribbean. I don't think there is a lot of Insurance or even Reinsurance exposure there, but do you guys just have some high-level thoughts there just on potential exposure?

那很有幫助。最後還有一個。目前有一股颶風正在形成，有可能影響加勒比海地區。我認為那裡並沒有太多的保險或再保險風險敞口，但你們對潛在的風險敞口有什麼高層次的看法嗎？

I think it's just too early to tell. I think, for sure, it's going to be -- looks like a big event potentially for Jamaica. And whether it's big enough to have repercussion that goes affecting the Caribbean, overall, too early to tell.

我覺得現在下結論還太早。我認為，這肯定會是——看起來對牙買加來說可能會是一件大事。至於它是否大到足以對整個加勒比地區產生影響，現在判斷還為時過早。

Okay, thank you.

好的，謝謝。

Just quickly, I mean, obviously, depending where it hits, like some of the resorts might be the insured values that might be more -- that we might participate on, just not knowing at this point where -- again, where things may land. But I think that's -- in terms of where the exposures are and what could be impacted, that would be the focus area, I would say.

簡單來說，我的意思是，很明顯，這取決於它落在哪裡，例如一些度假村的保險價值可能會更高——我們可能會參與其中，只是目前還不知道——再說一遍，事情最終會落在哪裡。但我認為，就風險暴露的領域和可能受到影響的方面而言，這才是重點。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Andrew Kligerman, TD Cowen.

Andrew Kligerman，TD Cowen。

Maybe starting with, you just touched on growth in Insurance with Elyse, maybe shifting over to Reinsurance. You kind of kicked off, I remember in the first quarter, you thought that -- I think you did adjusted net written premium growth of 6 or 7%. You kind of repeated that in Reinsurance in the second quarter. And then this quarter, you talked about the two deals and the reinstatement premium is kind of creating a bit of noise. So part A of it is, what would the normalized growth have been in the absence of those items? And the part B is, how are you thinking about growth going forward in that segment?

或許可以從你剛才和 Elyse 談的保險業成長開始，然後轉向再保險業。我記得在第一季度，你們算是取得了開門紅，你們當時認為——我認為你們的調整後淨保費收入增長了 6% 或 7%。你在第二季的再保險業務中也重複了類似的觀點。然後，本季度，您談到了這兩項交易，而復效溢價引起了一些爭議。所以問題的第一部分是，如果沒有這些項目，正常成長率會是多少？第二部分是，您如何看待該領域未來的成長？

Well, I'll take the first part. I mean, maybe Nicolas can chime in on the second. I mean, the normalized growth absent, call it, these kind of one-offs are, again -- and they happen, right? We've talked about it in the past, Reinsurance can be lumpy. There's deals that happen. They don't happen. The timing of it is not always predictable.

那我來回答第一部分。我的意思是，或許尼可拉斯就第二個問題發表一下看法。我的意思是，如果沒有正常的成長，或者說，如果沒有這些一次性事件，那麼——而且這些事件確實會發生，對吧？我們以前也討論過，再保險可能會波動。有些交易確實會發生。這種事不會發生。發生的時間並不總是可以預測的。

But yeah, the fact that with a little bit of the headwinds that we're seeing, again, coming from a very high bar on the property, property cat, 7/1 renewals, I'd say our growth in the quarter might have been around, like, call it, a decrease of 3% to 4%, not the 10% that we -- that is was reported in the quarter.

但是，鑑於我們目前面臨的一些不利因素，例如物業、物業大災變、7月1日續約等，我認為我們本季的成長可能下降了3%到4%，而不是我們本季報告的10%。

Yeah. Thank you, Francois. And on the outlook for growth on the Reinsurance side, so I think of Reinsurance pretty much the same outlook as Insurance. I think you have rate pressure on the short-tail lines. But I think you're seeing a rate increase in dislocation on the casualty lines that could provide opportunity. So I think, I would say, similar pictures, but for -- I think a big headwind is like a lot of our ceding company like the business like we do. We like the Insurance business.

是的。謝謝你，弗朗索瓦。至於再保險方面的成長前景，我認為再保險的前景與保險的前景基本上相同。我認為短線運輸面臨利率壓力。但我認為，傷亡人員流失率的上升可能會帶來機會。所以我覺得，情況類似，但是──我覺得很大的逆風就像我們很多讓步的公司一樣，就像我們做生意一樣。我們喜歡保險業。

So after a few years, there's less fear in the marketplace. People feel better about their balance sheets. So what we're seeing is companies retaining more, which creates significant headwinds for the Reinsurance group. I mean, by doing so, they either retain the business or move -- very often, you move more to an excess of loss position that present additional opportunities for us. And I would say that the margin on the excess of loss is usually better than the margin on the quota share. So I think we may see a different makeup of the margin going forward.

所以幾年之後，市場上的恐懼情緒就減少了。人們對自己的資產負債表感覺更好了。因此，我們看到的是企業保留更多資產，這對再保險集團帶來了巨大的不利影響。我的意思是，這樣做，他們要么會留住業務，要么會轉向——通常情況下，你會轉向虧損過多的局面，這會給我們帶來更多的機會。而且我認為，超額損失的利潤率通常優於按份額支付的利潤率。所以我認為未來利潤率的組成可能會有所不同。

I see, I see. Thank you for that. And then maybe shifting back to Insurance, as a specialty writer and especially with pressure in E&S property these days, just more from the industry perspective, and you touched on your view of how Arch is going to do, but maybe again a little bit, but how do you see E&S premium for the industry playing out over the next few years? I mean, not only have we -- we've seen such tremendous growth over the last few years, but is it possible that E&S premium as an industry starts to decline over the next few years? And so outlook and then just Arch in E&S over the near intermediate term as well.

我明白了，我明白了。謝謝。然後，也許可以回到保險領域，作為一名專業撰稿人，尤其是在如今 E&S 財產險領域面臨壓力的情況下，從行業角度來看，您也談到了您對 Arch 未來發展的看法，但也許可以再稍微談談，您認為未來幾年 E&S 保險費在行業中會如何發展？我的意思是，我們不僅在過去幾年看到瞭如此巨大的成長，但是未來幾年，E&S 保險業的保費是否有可能開始下降？因此，展望未來，以及近期中期內E&S的Arch的情況也是如此。

So I think -- the outlook of the industry, I think, it's a tale of two stories. I think on the casualty side, I think because of what's happening in the market and because of the issues people are having with the prior years and I think my view is that the trend of more of the business moving to the excess and surplus side where you have freedom of rate and forms and where you can add the exclusion that take a much longer time to be able to do on the admitted side, that will continue.

所以我認為——就產業前景而言，我認為，情況呈現出兩種截然不同的局面。我認為，就意外險而言，由於市場現狀以及人們對前幾年遇到的問題，我認為越來越多的業務會轉向超額和剩餘險領域，因為在這些領域，費率和表格方面擁有更大的自由度，並且可以添加在承保領域需要更長時間才能完成的除外責任，這種趨勢將會持續下去。

On the short-tail line, we could see some of the shared and layer business and your cat exposed business going back to the admitted market as we've done historically. So I think -- how to predict, but I think the fundamental shift, which has been driven by casualty, that I expect to continue.

從短期來看，我們可能會看到一些共享和分層業務以及你的貓暴露業務像我們過去所做的那樣回歸到已承認的市場。所以我認為──雖然難以預測，但我認為傷亡事件引發的根本性轉變將會持續下去。

I see. And then Arch, how do you see yourselves? Do you see gaining share on the short tail and the casualty, respectively?

我懂了。那麼，Arch，你們如何看待自己？您認為短期市場和意外損失市場分別會獲得市佔率嗎？

The short tail will be a challenge based on what we see in terms of the pricing. I think we are more optimistic on the casualty side, where we've been underweight in the difficult years. And I think we're I think our loss pick has been holding pretty well. So that gives us confidence in how we price the business forward

根據我們目前看到的定價情況來看，短尾市場將是一個挑戰。我認為我們對傷亡的情況更加樂觀，因為在過去幾年裡，我們一直低估了傷亡方面的情況。而且我認為我們選擇的虧損對象表現得相當不錯。這讓我們對未來的業務定價充滿信心。

So I think that -- as rates continues to improve, I think that gives us an opportunity certainly to do more at a time maybe where our competitors are still kind of caught up into looking at the right things they did in the earlier years.

所以我認為——隨著利率的持續改善，這無疑給了我們一個機會，讓我們能夠做得更多，而我們的競爭對手可能仍然沉浸在回顧他們早年所做正確事情的階段。

Okay. Thank you for the insight.

好的。感謝您的見解。

Josh Shanker, Bank of America.

喬許‧尚克爾，美國銀行。

Yeah. I don't want to pigeonhole you too much, but obviously, you did a lot of buybacks in 3Q. Some companies don't do buybacks in 3Q because they're worried about the outcome of the hurricane season. But then trying to gauge your appetite for 4Q and maybe 1Q, when did you start buying back and how much -- were you buying the whole quarter or really were you able to do $732 million within about a month ending up a quarter?

是的。我不想給你貼標籤，但很明顯，你在第三季進行了很多股票回購。有些公司在第三季不進行股票回購，因為他們擔心颶風季的結果。但為了評估您對第四季甚至第一季的需求，您是什麼時候開始回購的，回購了多少？您是整個季度都回購了，還是真的在一個月左右的時間裡回購了 7.32 億美元，最終算一個季度？

Yeah, I mean, it was pretty consistent throughout the quarter. I think there was a little bit more in September, and that's kind of, as I mentioned, I think we've been active in October as well. I think -- again, I think I touched on it on the last call. I think no question that some years ago, we would have said we would not buy during the hurricane season. I think Arch is different today than it was back then. I think Arch is much more diversified, much stronger, less exposed on our percentage of equity from a massive or a cat PML, even at the 1 and 250 or below.

是的，我的意思是，整個季度情況都相當穩定。我認為九月份的活動稍微多一些，而且正如我之前提到的，我認為我們在十月也很活躍。我想——再說一遍，我想我在上次通話中已經提到過這一點了。毫無疑問，幾年前我們會說我們不會選擇在颶風季節買房。我認為現在的Arch和以前不一樣了。我認為 Arch 的多元化程度更高，實力更強，即使在 1 和 250 或更低的情況下，我們股權受到的巨大風險或巨災 PML 的影響也更小。

So for all these reasons, we do feel and felt a lot more comfortable buying back during the wind season. And I think -- as I said earlier, I think we're going to keep pursuing that opportunity as we move forward.

基於以上種種原因，我們確實覺得在風季回購商品安心許多。而且我認為——正如我之前所說，我認為我們將繼續努力抓住這個機會。

And you're not worried, in the past, you said part of the reason to do a special dividend was because you just don't think you can return as much capital as you desire to through the buyback of the limitations as you look out into the end of this quarter and beyond? Do you think you can satisfy every bit of capital return you need through repurchases?

而且你並不擔心，你過去曾說過，派發特別股息的部分原因是，你認為展望本季度末及以後，你無法透過回購受限股份來返還你想要的那麼多資本？你認為透過回購就能滿足你所有的資本回報需求嗎？

It's a daily thing we look at daily. I certainly think we can do more capital return. We don't set a target for ourselves. I think it's an ongoing process. But there's a lot of liquidity in the stock right now, and we're able to buy back stock, we think we perceive to be a very attractive price. And we'll do as much as we can, how much we think is right. And then we'll see where we're at.

這是我們每天都要關注的事情。我當然認為我們可以獲得更高的資本回報。我們不給自己設定目標。我認為這是一個持續的過程。但目前該股票流動性很強，我們可以回購股票，我們認為價格非常有吸引力。我們會盡我們所能，做到我們認為正確的程度。然後我們再看看情況如何。

All right. Thank you very much.

好的。非常感謝。

Tracy Benguigui, Wolfe Research.

Tracy Benguigui，Wolfe Research。

This is a bit belated that it's been a while since I've been on your call. Congrats on your S&P upgrade back in June. Since capital is so topical, my question is, while it's great that you have a AA- rating as a new category, you now have to hold AAA capital. Back when you were rated A+, you only had to hold AA capital. And I realize a lot of that was just model methodology driven. But my question is, how important is it to you to stay in this new rating category when you're thinking about your ability to deploy capital?

雖然有點晚了，但我已經有一段時間沒跟你通話了。恭喜貴公司在六月獲得標普評級上調。由於資本是一個非常熱門的話題，我的問題是，雖然你們獲得了 AA- 評級這一新類別非常好，但你們現在必須持有 AAA 級資本。以前你的信用評級是 A+ 的時候，你只需要持有 AA 級資本。我意識到，很多時候這只是模型方法論的驅動。但我的問題是，在考慮如何部署資本時，保持在這個新的評級類別對你來說有多重要？

I mean, is it critical? I mean, it's not, but it's certainly an advantage, and we've seen the benefits of that already in some places, particularly in Europe. So no question that the new higher rating, I think, has been well-received, and we're able to benefit from that.

我的意思是，這很關鍵嗎？我的意思是，雖然不是絕對的，但這肯定是一個優勢，而且我們已經在一些地方，尤其是在歐洲，看到了這種優勢帶來的好處。毫無疑問，新的更高評級受到了好評，我們也從中受益匪淺。

But you're right. I mean, it comes at a certain cost. I'd say, though, that the S&P capital model is only one of the things we look at. We have our own internal view of capital. We have our -- I mean, there's other rating agencies that we look at as well. So all in, I think our capital position remains very strong. It was always strong. And again, we try to optimize within all those constraints from all the rating agencies and regulators that look at us.

但你說得對。我的意思是，這樣做是要付出一定代價的。不過，我認為，標普資本模型只是我們關注的因素之一。我們對資本有自己獨特的看法。我們也有自己的——我的意思是，我們也會參考其他評級機構。綜上所述，我認為我們的資本狀況依然非常強勁。它一直都很強大。我們再次強調，我們會在所有評級機構和監管機構的約束下，努力做到最好。

But the AAA level of capital that you mentioned is really not something that's not really new to us because we were, I'd say, already at that level. So that's kind of -- yeah, it wasn't an additional kind of burden or initial step we had to meet.

但你提到的 AAA 級資本對我們來說其實並不陌生，因為可以說，我們早就達到那個水準了。所以，這算是——是的，這並不是我們必須承擔的額外負擔或必須踏出的第一步。

Yeah. I think we don't only manage one point. I mean, usually we look at AA, AAA. And for a while, I think we were a little bit on the penalty box because of the MI. So I think -- now, I think it's more -- I think it changed completely our capital structure. And also, I think it's been helpful on some of the MI, CRT, and SRT, where the buyer are extremely sensitive to the rating of those layers. And they actually pay a differentiated price for better ratings.

是的。我認為我們不只是控制住了一個點。我的意思是，通常我們看的是AA、AAA級。有一段時間，我覺得我們因為MI隊而有點被罰下場。所以我覺得──現在，我覺得更像是──我覺得它徹底改變了我們的資本結構。而且，我認為這對一些 MI、CRT 和 SRT 顯示器也很有幫助，因為買家對這些層的評級非常敏感。而且，他們實際上會為更高的評分支付不同的價格。

And as Francois said, I think in Europe, as we lean to, especially on the Reinsurance side, but also on the Insurance side, our strength is really casualty, professional lines, and as we lean into those markets, I think having a AA- rating is an advantage.

正如弗朗索瓦所說，我認為在歐洲，尤其是在再保險方面，以及保險方面，我們的優勢在於意外險和職業險，隨著我們向這些市場靠攏，我認為擁有 AA- 評級是一個優勢。

Okay. So do you do it just opportunistically? Or could you see a scenario where you could reduce capital and live with -- back to the A+ rating?

好的。所以你只是出於機會主義才這麼做嗎？或者，您能否設想這樣一種情況：減少資本投入，並最終恢復到 A+ 評級？

(inaudible) I mean, it is a trade-off we all -- we constantly look at, right? I mean, how much capital do we need to hold on the margin to get the incremental rating? Right now, we already have the capital. We're not -- we're in a very strong capital position. But down the road, if conditions change, the question you ask is something that we've asked ourselves many times in the past, like how much capital do we -- is it really worth it to us to hold that incremental level of capital? But right now, given our capital position and again, given the strength of our earnings, the earnings profile where we generate internally the capital on a regular basis, I think we're in a very, very good position.

（聽不清楚）我的意思是，這是我們所有人都要權衡的——我們一直在考慮的，對吧？我的意思是，我們需要在保證金方面持有多少資本才能獲得增量評級？目前我們已經有了資金。我們並非如此——我們的資本實力非常雄厚。但從長遠來看，如果情況發生變化，你提出的這個問題，也是我們過去多次問過自己的問題，例如我們有多少資本——持有這種增量資本對我們來說真的值得嗎？但就目前而言，鑑於我們的資本狀況，以及我們強勁的獲利能力（我們能夠定期在內部產生資本），我認為我們處於非常非常好的境地。

Okay. My next question is, you said you like Insurance, and you're bullish on business, and you mentioned casualty rate increases. Casualty can mean a lot of things. So once I strip out some of the casualty lines, like you mentioned professional lines, what is really left -- what you're left with in terms of attractive pricing in GL, commercial auto, and excess liability, which includes auto? So I'm wondering where you're seeing the opportunities. Is it more auto-orientated? Or if you could just let me know the different casualty lines that are attractive.

好的。我的下一個問題是，您說您喜歡保險業，看好商業前景，並且提到了意外傷害保險費率上漲。傷亡可以有很多種含義。所以，一旦我剔除一些意外險項目，例如你提到的職業責任險，那麼真正剩下的是什麼——在一般責任險、商業汽車險和超額責任險（包括汽車險）方面，哪些項目的價格比較有吸引力？所以我想知道你認為機會在哪裡。它更偏向自動化嗎？或者，您能否告訴我哪些傷亡險種比較吸引人？

Yes. I think one of the opportunities on the E&S casualty side, which would be excess, excess liability, so that would include some auto, but usually, we don't focus on the auto on the E&S side. And then we have other franchise, like rate sensitive business like national accounts or construction, which are casualty-lead lines with heavy components of workers' comp, general liability, and a lesser amount of auto. So those are the places where we think we have the ability to grow.

是的。我認為 E&S 意外險方面的一個機會是超額責任險，其中可能包括一些汽車險，但通常情況下，我們不會把重點放在 E&S 的汽車險上。此外，我們還有其他特許經營業務，例如對費率敏感的全國性客戶或建築業，這些業務以意外傷害為主，其中工傷賠償、一般責任險佔很大比例，汽車保險佔較小比例。所以，我們認為在這些領域我們有能力發展壯大。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Ryan Tunis, Cantor.

Ryan Tunis，坎托爾。

I just wanted to go back. I thought it was an interesting comment that on the Reinsurance side, you're seeing cedents proactively retain more. And I guess, I'm curious, when I look at the facultative property decline of 17% this quarter, how much of that is -- I don't know, you guys proactively walking away, or decline in exposure as opposed to rate? Because I was thinking it was kind of more rate-driven, but that comment made me think it might be more volume-based.

我只想回去。我認為這個評論很有意思，即在再保險方面，原保險人越來越積極地保留更多權益。我很好奇，當我看到本季自願性房地產投資下降了 17% 時，其中有多少是——我不知道，是你們主動放棄投資，還是風險敞口下降而不是利率下降？因為我之前以為它更偏向費率驅動，但那句話讓我覺得它可能更偏向交易量驅動。

No, I don't think we are cutting back. I think at this stage, I think we -- on the other property, which I think we should clarify other property line of business. I think the main factors there is a couple of our clients on the E&S side of the business and on the -- retaining more of the business at this stage. So that's really -- we would like to do more.

不，我不認為我們正在削減開支。我認為在現階段，我認為我們——關於另一處房產，我認為我們應該澄清一下另一處房產的業務範圍。我認為主要因素在於我們在環境和社會業務方面的一些客戶，以及——在這個階段保留更多業務。所以，我們真的——我們想做更多。

And also, I think, let's not forget, the rates are also going down. So some of our cedents are also revising some of their ceded premium to the downside. And so those are the two components, their ability to wanting to retain more of the business, and also, they're re-forecasting their growth downwards, which impacts our Insurance volume. (multiple speakers)

而且，我認為，我們也不要忘記，利率也在下降。因此，我們的一些轉讓方也在下調部分轉讓保費。因此，這兩個因素分別是：他們希望保留更多業務的能力，以及他們正在下調成長預期，這影響了我們的保險業務量。（多位發言者）

Just to confirm, it's no question that the rate environment is down in property. There's also a drop in exposure, but just to be clear, that drop in exposure is typically not our decision, right? It's the cedents' decision. There are some situations where, again, they decide to keep it net or they use a different structure. But we still like the product. We still like the line. In most of what we do, we like a lot. And any reduction in exposure that you see that we experience is generally, at this time, more because the cedents choose to do something different, not because we decide to walk away.

再次確認一下，毫無疑問，房地產市場的利率環境正在走低。接觸量也有所下降，但需要明確的是，接觸量的下降通常不是我們決定的，對吧？這是讓渡人的決定。有些情況下，他們會決定保留網狀結構，或採用不同的結構。但我們仍然喜歡這款產品。我們依然喜歡這句台詞。我們所做的大部分事情，我們都非常喜歡。目前我們所看到的任何風險降低，通常更多是因為受害者選擇採取不同的做法，而不是因為我們決定退出。

Got it. And then just to follow up, you guys talking about the transitioning market. I think a lot of times we just want to focus on pricing, but I'm curious if what type of lines are -- it might be in primary because there's business going back to admitted and just some of the more bad stuff stays E&S or facultative, I guess, it could be a cedent just choosing to -- I guess, just continue to cede the stuff where they feel like there's an arbitrage. But like are there pockets you'd point out that are kind of particularly challenging to underwrite in this type of market where you really got to kind of cross your T's and dot your I's?

知道了。然後，我想補充一點，你們剛才談到了市場轉型。我覺得很多時候我們只想專注於定價，但我很好奇哪些類型的線路——可能是因為有業務要追溯到已確認的業務，而一些更糟糕的業務則保留在 E&S 或選擇性業務中，我想，也可能是轉讓方選擇——我想，只是繼續轉讓他們認為存在套利機會的業務。但是，在這種類型的市場中，有沒有一些領域特別難以承保，需要你仔細檢查每一個細節？

I think it's a competitive market. I would say a lot of the market today, you get a lot of anti-selections. We develop a lot of data analytics tools to really segment our portfolios and provide underwriters some really granular information which price for which risk, which limit for which risk. So I think underwriting the market, we are bullish because we have those tools. I think if you don't have the tools, I would be a lot less bullish about our ability to write profitable business going forward.

我認為這是一個競爭激烈的市場。我認為，如今的市場上有許多反向選擇。我們開發了許多數據分析工具，以便真正對我們的投資組合進行細分，並為承銷商提供一些非常細緻的信息，例如哪種風險對應哪種價格，哪種風險對應哪種限額。所以我認為，就承保市場而言，我們看好市場，因為我們有這些工具。我認為，如果沒有必要的工具，我對我們未來實現獲利業務的能力就不會那麼樂觀了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Did you have further questions, Ryan?

瑞恩，你還有其他問題嗎？

I'm good. Thanks, guys. Appreciate it.

我很好。謝謝各位。謝謝。

Mike Zaremski, BMO.

Mike Zaremski，BMO。

Pivoting to the Mortgage side of the business, I feel like when we were to quiz most people and ask them what the historical five, six, seven-year loss ratio was, most people wouldn't guess it was 0. And obviously, there was unique circumstances in the past five-ish years. But just curious -- and we know it's a feast or famine business, but curious if your views on a normalized loss ratio is different compared to the past, if we think about the current cycle and the next cycle coming.

轉向抵押貸款業務方面，我覺得如果我們去詢問大多數人，問他們過去五、六、七年的損失率是多少，大多數人都不會猜到是 0。顯然，在過去五年左右的時間裡出現了一些特殊情況。只是好奇——我們知道這是一個時好時壞的行業，但好奇的是，如果我們考慮當前的周期和即將到來的下一個週期，您對正常損失率的看法是否與過去有所不同。

Well, not knowing what the next cycle will look like, I think we'd be speculating. I think we have talked about a normalized loss ratio in the 20% range across the cycle. I think we have said, and we believe strongly that home prices are the key driver of what the performance will look like for the Mortgage book. And so far, home prices have remained very strong. There's been some pockets. There's been some home prices decline, some home price declines in a few areas, but across the nation, across the US, you can see that home prices remain very strong. So that, I think, explains in large part, I'd say, the outperformance of the Mortgage business relative to what we would have thought over an extended period.

由於我們無法預知下一個週期會是什麼樣子，我認為我們只能進行猜測。我認為我們已經討論過，整個週期內的正常損失率在 20% 左右。我認為我們已經說過，而且我們堅信，房價是決定抵押貸款業務表現的關鍵因素。目前來看，房價依然堅挺。有些地方出現過這種情況。雖然部分地區的房價有所下降，但全國範圍內，整個美國的房價仍然非常堅挺。所以，我認為這在很大程度上解釋了抵押貸款業務在較長一段時間內的表現為何超出了我們的預期。

Does that remain the same going forward? Again, there's a lot of macro factors that will come into play on that, but as long as -- and we do have strong beliefs that based on lack of inventory and the lack of housing in the US, I think we'll support home prices for the foreseeable future. And on that basis, we'd like to think that the performance will remain strong. Now, does it inch up a little bit over time? Maybe a little, because it feels like it's been really, really good for a long, long time. But for the time being, again, we've said it, and we still are very, very, very bullish about the Mortgage business, because it's been truly a terrific business for us.

這種情況以後還會繼續嗎？當然，有很多宏觀因素會影響到這一點，但是只要——而且我們堅信，基於美國住房庫存不足和住房短缺的現狀，我認為在可預見的未來，我們將支撐房價。基於此，我們認為其表現將保持強勁。那麼，隨著時間的推移，它會稍微上升一點嗎？或許有一點點吧，因為感覺它已經一直都很好了。但就目前而言，我們已經說過，而且我們仍然非常、非常、非常看好抵押貸款業務，因為它對我們來說確實是一項非常棒的業務。

Got it, understood.

明白了。

And the underwriting remains excellent. I think if you look at the FICO distribution, I think they're getting better. So that will drive better outcome.

核保情況依然非常出色。我認為，如果你看一下 FICO 分數分佈情況，你會發現情況正在好轉。這樣就能帶來更好的結果。

Got it. Moving to capital management. Clearly, you signaled buybacks are high on the list. Maybe you can just give us an update. Has anything changed quarter on quarter on maybe inorganic opportunities? Is US small commercial still something that's on the -- retail small commercial still high up on the wish list? Thanks.

知道了。轉向資本管理。顯然，你暗示回購是首要任務。或許您可以為我們報告一下最新情況。季度環比來看，在非有機成長機會方面是否有任何變化？美國小型商業零售業是否仍是人們希望重點發展的項目？謝謝。

Yeah, the wish list is long. I mean, we -- but by the same token, we have a lot that we are working on and can work on. Middle market is obviously a big focus for us. We've talked about other areas that we'd like to grow in. But as you know, these M&A opportunities, they don't happen that often. They take a while to materialize. So we're not going to hold a ton of excess capital just in the -- on the potential that we might do an M&A transaction. I mean, our leverage ratio is it's maybe the lowest it's ever been. So we've got a lot of flexibility. The balance sheet is strong. We got some excess capital.

是的，願望清單很長。我的意思是，我們——但同樣地，我們有很多事情正在做，也有很多事情可以做。中端市場顯然是我們重點關注的對象。我們也討論過我們希望拓展的其他領域。但如你所知，這種併購機會並不常有。它們需要一段時間才能顯現出來。因此，我們不會僅僅因為可能進行併購交易而持有大量過剩資本。我的意思是，我們的槓桿率可能是歷史最低。所以我們有很大的靈活性。資產負債表穩健。我們獲得了一些多餘的資金。

So we got a lot of flexibility in our ability to execute on that, I think, is really good. So if there's other things that we can get our hands on that would make us better, we'll be happy to do that. But in the meantime, there's a lot that we already have that are -- that is -- we can generate good earnings on as well.

因此，我們在執行方面擁有很大的靈活性，我認為這非常好。所以，如果還有其他能讓我們變得更好的東西，我們很樂意去做。但同時，我們已經擁有許多可以帶來良好收益的資源。

Got it. And maybe just taking one last one in since you guys provide excellent market commentary. And Nicolas, you provided a good view of how to think about the E&S marketplace going forward. Do you all have a view on what has also been the kind of exponential growth of the MGA marketplace and kind of how it's been impacting Arch or maybe the industry? And do you view the MGA's marketplace growth to continue to grow much faster than the rest of the market? Thanks.

知道了。鑑於你們的市場評論非常精彩，或許我應該再補充一點。尼可拉斯，你為我們提供了一個很好的視角，讓我們思考未來環境和社會市場的發展方向。各位對MGA市場的指數級增長以及這種增長對Arch或整個行業的影響有什麼看法？您是否認為MGA的市場成長速度將繼續遠超其他市場？謝謝。

Interesting subject. I'm personally bearish on the MGA. I think, historically, strong growth in the MGA except for a few exceptions didn't turn out to be good. I think the lack of incentive alignment, the delay in the information to the insurance carrier or the reinsurers, I'm not bullish on that model. So I think it's been the flavor of the month and the last few years, and I'm still a little bit questioning what the outcome is going to be.

很有意思的話題。我個人看空MGA。我認為，從歷史角度來看，除少數例外情況外，MGA（管理型博彩代理商）的強勁成長最終都不是好事。我認為，由於缺乏激勵機制，以及保險公司或再保險公司無法及時獲得信息，我對這種模式並不看好。所以我覺得這只是近幾年的流行趨勢，我仍然有點懷疑最終結果會是如何。

Thank you.

謝謝。

David Motemaden, Evercore ISI.

大衛·莫特馬登，Evercore ISI。

Just had a question. Obviously, still very good reserve releases. Just focusing in on Insurance and Reinsurance specifically, could you talk about the movement between long-tail and short-tail lines between those two? Any sort of things to point out on that front?

我有個問題。顯然，這些儲備發行版依然非常出色。具體來說，就保險和再保險而言，您能否談談這兩者之間的長尾線和短尾線之間的變化？這方面有什麼需要指出的嗎？

I'd say nothing unusual, very similar to prior quarters. There is a little bit of the adverse on casualty. I mean, nothing that stands out. It's a couple of -- could be one accident year within one business unit, the one line of business. So small adverse on casualty, which I don't think is surprising, at least to us.

我認為一切正常，與前幾季非常相似。傷亡方面略有不利影響。我的意思是，沒什麼特別突出的。可能是同一業務部門、同一業務線每年發生的一起事故。傷亡人數如此之少，我認為這並不令人意外，至少對我們來說是這樣。

But when we look at the overall picture around kind of where -- how the reserves are performing or quarterly actual versus expected, which is still showing favorable, meaning lower than expected, I think gives us a lot of comfort there. So we're reacting to the data. And in some places, there's no question. There's trends that are showing up that we're addressing. But big picture, the short-tail stuff did extremely well as it has for quite some time, and we'll keep evaluating it every quarter.

但當我們從整體上看情況，例如儲備金的表現，或季度實際值與預期值之間的對比（目前仍處於有利水平，低於預期），我認為這給了我們很大的安慰。所以我們正在根據數據做出反應。在某些地方，這根本不需要質疑。我們正在應對一些正在顯現的趨勢。但從整體來看，短尾數據表現非常出色，而且這種情況已經持續了相當長一段時間，我們將繼續每季對其進行評估。

Got it. Thanks for that. And then just taking a step back, the mix shift to casualty lines in both Insurance and Reinsurance, at least if I look at it on an earned basis, that definitely is up a bit year over year, hasn't really increased much, I guess, over the past few quarters. Is that having any bit of an impact at all on the underlying loss ratios in either segment? And how should we think about that going forward?

知道了。謝謝。然後，退一步來看，無論是保險還是再保險，財產險業務的佔比都在下降，至少從已賺額來看，同比確實有所增長，但在過去幾個季度裡，並沒有真正增長太多。這是否對這兩個板塊的根本損失率產生了任何影響？那麼，我們接下來該如何看待這個問題呢？

So I mean, at some point you will, but because I think the loss pick on the casualty line is a bit higher than the loss pick on the short-tail lines. But I think the shift -- the mix hasn't really changed fundamentally at this stage, I think. So I think down the road, I think it might.

所以我的意思是，總有一天你會的，但因為我認為傷亡線的損失風險比短尾線的損失風險要高一些。但我認為，這種轉變──或者說，這種組合在現階段並沒有根本性的改變。所以我覺得從長遠來看，這或許有可能。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。

Rob Cox, Goldman Sachs.

羅布·考克斯，高盛。

Yeah, just curious, as you start to renew the MCE book, anything interesting you're seeing either on the delegated or the non-delegated side? And how far are we through the non-renewals on the programs book?

是的，我只是好奇，當你開始更新 MCE 書籍時，無論是在委託方面還是非委託方面，你有沒有發現什麼有趣的事情？目前進展如何進行專案計劃的續約？

So I think what we've seen so far, and I think we've renewed -- the entire book has been transferred to Arch. I think we -- I'm personally very pleased with what we've seen so far, and I think the stickiness of the business, the ability to provide additional lines of business or distribution partners to be more relevant to them, the property expertise that in the admitted property business that we really didn't have, that we acquired, all those assumptions that we had made at the time of the purchase turned out to be true

所以我覺得到目前為止我們看到的，而且我認為我們已經更新了——整本書都已經轉移到 Arch。我認為——我個人對目前為止的成果非常滿意，我認為業務的穩定性、提供更多業務線或分銷合作夥伴以更好地滿足他們需求的能力、以及我們在房地產業務領域原本缺乏的專業知識（我們收購了這些知識），所有這些我們在收購時所做的假設最終都得到了證實。

So I'm actually very pleased with the strategic decision we made to go for the acquisition. On the delegated side, the MGA, I think we knew -- we didn't do the deal because of the MGA portfolio that was coming with the acquisition. So I think we started the remediation, and there, I think it's pretty much what we expected. And I think it takes more time than you think because all these MGAs have notice periods. So I think we will see the impact really in 2026 of the non-renewal -- of the notice period that we send a number of those MGAs this year.

所以，我對我們當初決定進行收購的策略決策感到非常滿意。在委託代理方面，MGA，我想我們知道——我們沒有達成這筆交易是因為收購會帶來 MGA 業務組合。所以我覺得我們已經開始了補救工作，而且，我覺得結果基本上符合我們的預期。我認為這比你想像的要花更多時間，因為所有這些管理代理商都有通知期。所以我認為，我們將在 2026 年真正看到不續約的影響——也就是我們今年向許多 MGA 發出的通知期的影響。

Got it. Thank you. And then just wanted to follow up on credit. I mean, just given the Mortgage book and the investment in Coface and I think a relatively larger private credit book that you guys have, any thoughts on the credit environment and anywhere you're leaning into or out of, just given some of the noise in private credit?

知道了。謝謝。然後我只是想跟進一下信用狀況。我的意思是，考慮到你們的抵押貸款業務、對科法斯的投資，以及我認為你們相對較大的私人信貸業務，你們對當前的信貸環境有什麼看法？鑑於私人信貸領域的一些波動，你們在哪些方面會專注於或迴避？

Yeah. I think you've got to be careful, I'd say, in what we're looking at. No question that certainly maybe the headlines around subprime auto loans not performing well, I think that's a totally different type of customer than what our borrowers would be on the USMI front. So I think that -- and we're not seeing any of the same kind of results and that I guess the proof is what we reported this quarter.

是的。我認為，在看待我們所看到的事情時，我們必須謹慎一些。毫無疑問，次級汽車貸款表現不佳的新聞可能會引起關注，但我認為這與我們在美國抵押貸款保險 (USMI) 領域所面對的借款人完全是兩種類型的客戶。所以我認為——而且我們並沒有看到任何類似的結果，我想這就能證明我們本季的業績報告。

So again, very specific around kind of the type of borrowers in the US, the trade credit world, no question that there's been a couple of insolvencies that have made the headlines that we -- Coface, we don't know, but may be exposed, and that's for them to work on. But there's no question that when these types of events happen, people will start to think a bit harder about dependencies in the credit and lines of credit they extend, et cetera. But that's not unusual.

所以，再次強調，具體來說，美國貿易信貸領域的借款人類型非常特殊，毫無疑問，已經出現了一些破產事件，這些事件上了新聞頭條——我們——科法斯，我們不知道，但可能受到了影響，這是他們需要處理的問題。但毫無疑問，當這類事件發生時，人們會開始更認真地思考他們提供的信貸和信貸額度等方面的依賴關係。但這並不罕見。

So at this point, we're very, very comfortable with the exposure we have. We understand it well. And obviously, we look and monitor all the external data and the trends that are happening. But so far, there's nothing really that stands out that we think we have to adjust our thinking or strategy.

所以目前我們對所獲得的曝光度非常非常滿意。我們非常了解這一點。當然，我們也會關注和監測所有外部數據和正在發生的趨勢。但到目前為止，還沒有出現任何真正突出的問題，讓我們認為需要調整我們的想法或策略。

And more specifically on Coface, I think this is short-term credit. The game here of the underwriting is really -- as you are aware of the weaker credit, is really to over time cut your line to that particular credit name so that when the inevitable happens, your exposure is much less. I think they played that game really, really well. And I don't know about the latest insolvencies, but historically, they've been very good at that.

具體來說，就科法斯而言，我認為這是短期信貸。承保的真正目的在於——正如您所知，對於信用較弱的信用，實際上是隨著時間的推移，逐步減少您對特定信用名稱的信貸額度，這樣，當不可避免的事情發生時，您的風險敞口就會小得多。我覺得他們那場比賽打得非常好。我不太了解最近的破產案例，但從歷史數據來看，他們在這方面一直做得非常出色。

Thanks for all the color.

感謝你們帶來的繽紛色彩。

Alex Scott, Barclays.

亞歷克斯·斯科特，巴克萊銀行。

First one I had was just circling back on Rob's question on the remediation. Could you frame for us at all, like how much impact that could have on the Insurance segment. I just thinking through trying to dial in premium growth estimates and knowing how much some of us missed our Reinsurance growth this quarter from not knowing about the transaction. I just want to make sure I'm layering in enough for this lagged remediation impact.

我遇到的第一個問題只是再次提及羅布關於補救措施的問題。您能否為我們分析一下，這會對保險業產生多大的影響？我只是在思考如何調整保費成長預測，並意識到由於不了解這筆交易，我們中的一些人在本季度錯過了多少再保險成長預期。我只是想確保我採取的措施足以應對這種滯後的補救措施的影響。

Yeah. So specifically on the programs we acquired, the premium that we've identified and has been -- will be nonrenewed is roughly $200 million. And again, Nicolas said, the notices went out, and then there's a notice period, and then MGA has three to six months to find another carrier. And some are more -- I mean, some are more successful in getting a replacement sooner. So some of that may actually start happening in the fourth quarter. I don't have the precise like projections on when it's going to hit the top line in each of the next few quarters.

是的。具體來說，在我們收購的項目中，我們已經確定並且將不再續約的溢價約為 2 億美元。尼古拉斯再次表示，通知已經發出，然後會有一個通知期，之後 MGA 有三到六個月的時間來尋找另一家承運商。有些人——我的意思是，有些人——更容易更快找到替代品。所以其中一些情況可能實際上會在第四季開始發生。我無法準確預測未來幾季何時能達到營收目標。

But just at least give you an idea, like, call it, $200 million part of $1.5 billion to $1.6 billion book is -- which was the overall MCE premium volume that's kind of the impact that we expect to see, the flip of that, though, is the middle market business that we really was attractive to us was really what we were trying to get has done very, very well. So the rate environment both on casualty and property in that business has been very good. And we just came back from a couple of industry conferences where the business partners are very supportive, and they are very happy to do business with Arch. So we'd like to think that some of that kind of headwind in terms of giving up or nonrenewing some of those programs, we can make up some of that, at least in the middle market side.

但至少可以給你一個概念，比如說，2億美元是15億至16億美元圖書總額的一部分——這是整體MCE溢價圖書的銷售額，這就是我們預期會看到的影響。然而，另一方面，我們真正感興趣的、我們真正想要獲得的中端市場業務表現得非常好。因此，該行業的意外險和財產險的費率環境都非常好。我們剛參加完幾個行業會議回來，商業夥伴們都非常支持我們，他們也很高興能與 Arch 合作。因此，我們希望能夠彌補一些因放棄或不再續簽某些項目而造成的損失，至少在中端市場方面可以彌補一部分。

Got it. Helpful. Second question I had is on the Reinsurance business in casualty specifically. The repricing efforts, I guess, a lot of it's on the quota share, the actual underlying primary taking rate. Can you characterize what you're seeing there? I mean, are the underlying primaries taking enough rate where it's in excess of loss cost and it's actually building improving margin in there. Is that why you're speaking more optimistically about it? Or is it still pretty obviously, high loss cost environment. So I'm just trying to get a feel of whether that's actually improving or not.

知道了。很有幫助。我的第二個問題是關於意外傷害再保險業務的。我認為，重新定價的努力很大程度上取決於配額份額，也就是實際的基礎一級市場承銷率。你能描述一下你在那裡看到的景象嗎？我的意思是，基礎性主要保險的收益率是否足夠高，以至於超過了損失成本，並且實際上正在建立和提高利潤率。這就是你對此事態度更加樂觀的原因嗎？或者說，這顯然仍然是一個高損失成本的環境。所以我只是想了解一下情況是否真的有改善。

So I think you got it right. I think we believe in casualty in general, we're getting more rate than the last cost, and it's an elevated loss cost. So I think that's what -- if you back on the Reinsurance side, if you back the right specialty underwriters, people that manage their limits well, avoid some of the heavy auto or other difficult class of business, I think you would want to do more business with them. And I think over time, we expect to be able to write more of that business.

所以我覺得你說得對。我認為我們相信意外險，我們目前的費率高於上次的成本，而且損失成本也更高。所以我覺得，如果你在再保險方面進行投資，如果你支持合適的專業承保人，那些能夠很好地管理自身限額、避免承保一些高風險汽車險或其他高風險業務的人，我認為你會希望與他們開展更多業務。而且我認為隨著時間的推移，我們希望能夠撰寫更多此類業務內容。

Okay. Thanks.

好的。謝謝。

Andrew Andersen, Jefferies.

Andrew Andersen，傑富瑞集團。

Maybe you could just expand a bit on how you're thinking about 1/1 prop cat renewals. Do you still see returns of kind of 20% here on this line? And how are you thinking about ILS impacting kind of return levels and industry capital?

或許您可以再詳細說說您對 1/1 螺旋槳雙體船續保的看法。你覺得這條生產線還能維持20%左右的報酬率嗎？您認為ILS會對收益水準和產業資本產生怎樣的影響？

Yes. On the cat side, we remain bullish. The outlook is bullish. We like the margin and maybe a couple of data points. The market really peaked in July 2024. So a little bit over a year ago.

是的。我們依然看好貓咪。前景看漲。我們喜歡這個利潤率，或許還可以加上幾個數據點。市場真正達到高峰是在2024年7月。大概一年多以前。

And I think in 2025, market -- the price went down between 5% and 10%. So we are into our second round of rate decrease. And depending on the region, the increase that we witnessed from 2021 to 2024, some of those rate doubled. So I think we are in a good place. It depends on the region.

我認為到 2025 年，市場價格將下降 5% 到 10%。所以我們現在進入了第二輪降息階段。根據地區不同，我們在 2021 年至 2024 年期間目睹了成長，其中一些地區的成長率甚至翻了一番。所以我覺得我們目前處境不錯。這取決於地區。

But generally, we remain optimistic that the business is attractive. There's more demand. We had more demand last year. We expect more demand to come to the market in the US on an international basis. So overall, we think despite pressure -- expected pressure on the rates, we will remain -- we think the margins are still very attractive.

但總的來說，我們仍然樂觀地認為這項業務很有吸引力。需求更大了。去年需求量更大。我們預計，從國際市場來看，美國市場的需求將會增加。所以總的來說，我們認為儘管面臨壓力——預期利率將面臨壓力——我們仍然認為利潤率非常有吸引力。

Thanks. I'll leave it there. Thank you.

謝謝。我就說到這兒吧。謝謝。

Meyer Shields, KBW.

Meyer Shields，KBW。

Just in the past, you've talked about ramping up some spending associated with MidCorp. I was hoping we could get an update of timing and maybe amounts of increased spending.

就在不久前，您曾談到要增加與 MidCorp 相關的一些支出。我希望能夠獲得有關支出增加的時間表和金額的最新資訊。

Well, increased spending, I think, was more -- the focus -- question that we got, I don't want to call it a bare bones organization, but the people that transferred back in August of 2024 was, call it primarily underwriters and claims people, right? So that was the bulk of the staff, the transferred and what we talked about at that time was that, yes, we would need to hire to reinforce our capabilities in terms of actuarial, data analytics, and a few support functions here and there. So that, we knew it would take some time. It's a competitive job market. We've been able to address some of that, too.

我認為，增加支出才是我們得到的更多關注。我不想稱其為精簡的組織，但2024年8月調回來的人員主要是承保人和理賠人員，對吧？所以大部分員工都調走了，當時我們討論的是，是的，我們需要招募人員來加強我們在精算、數據分析以及一些其他支援職能方面的能力。所以，我們知道這需要一些時間。這是一個競爭激烈的就業市場。我們也已經著手解決其中的一些問題。

But I think ultimately, it's still -- I want to say on the expense ratio on the OpEx side, I mean, we're -- we can run the incremental MidCorp business at a more efficient or lower expense ratio than we had pre the acquisition, given the synergies and kind of some of the infrastructure costs that we can spread to a bigger base. So I think we still have a few, I'd say, openings that we're trying both on the underwriting side and on the kind of support functions that we're trying to fill. But we've done -- a lot of the work has been done in the last year, and it's showing, right? The business is doing well and we're able to execute on the strategy and try to grow in some specific areas. So we're -- again, a little bit of work to do, but we're in a good spot.

但我認為最終，就營運支出方面的費用比率而言，我的意思是，考慮到協同效應以及我們可以分攤到更大基數的一些基礎設施成本，我們可以以比收購前更有效率或更低的費用比率來經營新增的中型企業業務。所以我覺得我們還有一些職缺，我們正在努力填補承保方面和我們正在努力填補的支援職能方面的空缺。但我們已經做了很多工作——過去一年我們做了很多工作，而且成果也顯現出來了，對吧？公司業務發展良好，我們能夠執行策略，並嘗試在一些特定領域實現成長。所以，我們——雖然還有一些工作要做，但我們目前處境不錯。

Okay, perfect. Thank you so much.

好的，完美。太感謝了。

Brian Meredith, UBS.

Brian Meredith，瑞銀集團。

Two quick ones here. Just going back to the whole MCE MidCorp in the program business runoff, the underlying loss ratio improvement in Insurance, is that a direct result of some of the actions being taken there? Or is that something else? And therefore, as we start to see this run off, should we start to see underlying loss ratios continue to improve in Insurance?

這裡有兩個簡短的問題。回到整個 MCE MidCorp 專案業務清算中，保險業的賠付率改善，這是否是那裡採取的一些措施的直接結果？還是另有隱情？因此，隨著這種損失率下降的趨勢開始顯現，我們是否應該看到保險業的基本損失率繼續改善？

It's more the latter. The impact of the non-renewals has not really come into play into our -- on an earned basis. So the improvement, again, somewhat not huge on this quarter, but I think the -- hopefully, there should be some benefit as this business runs off, and we'll see some improvement or at least some stable loss ratios.

更傾向於後者。不續約的影響並沒有真正體現在我們——依實際表現而言。所以，雖然本季有所改善，但幅度並不大。不過，我希望隨著這項業務的逐步結束，情況會有所好轉，我們會看到一些改善，或至少損失率會趨於穩定。

Great, thanks. And then first of all, I wonder if you could talk a little bit about the substance base tax credits that Bermuda came out with, I think it was the end of September, what that impact could potentially be for you all?

太好了，謝謝。首先，我想請您談談百慕達在九月底推出的實質稅收抵免政策，這項政策可能會對你們產生什麼影響？

A bit early to tell. No question, yes, the consultation paper is out. Comments have been submitted. We have had meetings with obviously the insurance community with the government expressing our views. The biggest, can I say, remaining item that we don't have clarity on is on the transition credits. I mean, at what pace will these kind of credits be allowed to be reflected starting in 2025. So that is still to be determined. There's work being done on that right now.

現在下結論還為時過早。毫無疑問，諮詢文件已經發布。已有評論提交。我們已經與保險界和政府舉行了會議，表達了我們的觀點。可以說，目前我們尚不清楚的最大問題是過渡期的演職人員名單。我的意思是，從 2025 年開始，這類信用額度將以怎樣的速度反映出來？所以這還有待確定。目前正在進行這方面的工作。

We expect to have clarity in the, call it, first half of December, clarity slash almost finality, because it has to be enacted before the end of the year for us to be able to reflect it in our financials. But to your question, Brian, I think it will be substantial, we hope. And when we have like the law, I mean, we'll be very quick to share that with you all and give you a bit more color on what that might mean for us.

我們預計在 12 月上半月就能明朗起來，或者說幾乎是最終確定下來，因為必須在年底前實施，我們才能將其反映在我們的財務報表中。但對於你的問題，布萊恩，我認為結果會相當可觀，我們希望如此。一旦有了相關法律，我們會盡快與大家分享，並詳細說明這對我們可能意味著什麼。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。

At this time, I'm not showing any further questions. I would like to turn the conference back over to Nicolas Papadopoulo for closing remarks.

目前，我不再提出任何其他問題。我謹將會議交還給尼可拉斯‧帕帕多普洛，請他作閉幕致詞。

Yes. Thank you for spending time with us this morning, and we're looking forward to talking to you next quarter. Thank you.

是的。感謝您今天上午抽出時間與我們交流，我們期待下個季度與您再次會面。謝謝。

Thank you, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, again, thank you for participating in today's conference. This concludes the program. You may all disconnect your lines.

謝謝您，先生。女士們、先生們，再次感謝各位參加今天的會議。節目到此結束。你們可以斷開線路了。