Arch Capital Group Ltd (ACGLN) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the first quarter 2025 Arch Capital earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded.

女士們、先生們，大家好，歡迎參加 2025 年第一季 Arch Capital 收益電話會議。（操作員指示）提醒一下，本次電話會議正在錄音。

Before the company gets started with its update, management wants to first remind everyone that certain statements in yesterday's press release and discussed on this call may constitute forward-looking statements under the federal securities laws. These statements are based upon management's current assessments and assumptions and are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties.

在公司開始更新之前，管理階層首先要提醒大家，昨天的新聞稿中以及本次電話會議中討論的某些聲明可能構成聯邦證券法下的前瞻性聲明。這些聲明是基於管理層目前的評估和假設，並受到許多風險和不確定性的影響。

Consequently, actual results may materially from those expressed or implied. For more information on the risks and other factors that may affect future performance, investors should review periodic reports that are filed by the company with the SEC from time to time, including our annual report on Form 10-K for the 2024 fiscal year.

因此，實際結果可能與明示或暗示的結果有重大差異。有關可能影響未來業績的風險和其他因素的更多信息，投資者應查看公司不時向美國證券交易委員會提交的定期報告，包括我們 2024 財年的 10-K 表格年度報告。

Additionally, certain statements contained in the call that are not based on historical facts are forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. The company intends the forward-looking statements in the call to be subject to the Safe Harbor created thereby.

此外，電話會議中包含的某些並非基於歷史事實的陳述屬於《1995 年私人證券訴訟改革法案》所定義的前瞻性陳述。該公司希望電話會議中的前瞻性陳述能夠遵循由此創建的安全港原則。

Management also will make reference to certain non-GAAP measures of financial performance. The reconciliations to GAAP for each non-GAAP financial measure can be found in the company's current report on Form 8-K furnished to the SEC yesterday, which contains the company's earnings press release and is available on the company's website at www.archgroup.com and on the SEC's website at www.sec.gov.

管理階層也會參考某些非公認會計準則的財務績效指標。每項非 GAAP 財務指標與 GAAP 的對帳情況均可在公司昨日向美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 提交的 8-K 表最新報告中找到，該報告包含公司的盈利新聞稿，可在公司網站 www.archgroup.com 和美國證券交易委員會網站 www.sec.gov 上查閱。

I would now like to introduce your host for today's conference, Mr. Nicolas Papadopoulo and Mr. François Morin. Sir, you may begin.

現在我想介紹今天會議的主持人 Nicolas Papadopoulo 先生和 François Morin 先生。先生，您可以開始了。

Good morning and welcome to Arch's first quarter earnings call. I'm pleased to report solid results for the quarter with $587 million of after-tax operating income, $1.54 in operating earnings per share, and an annualized operating return on equity of 11.5%.

早上好，歡迎參加 Arch 第一季財報電話會議。我很高興地報告本季的穩健業績，稅後營業收入為 5.87 億美元，每股營業收益為 1.54 美元，年化營業股本回報率為 11.5%。

These results were achieved despite $547 million of catastrophe losses affecting our property and casualty segment, primarily from the California wildfires. The PNC market has become increasingly competitive. However, we remain optimistic about the prospects as we continue to achieve broadly attractive rates across the sectors where we compete.

儘管我們的財產和意外傷害部門遭受了 5.47 億美元的災難損失（主要是加州野火），我們仍然取得了這些業績。PNC市場競爭日益激烈。然而，我們對前景仍然持樂觀態度，因為我們在各個競爭領域繼續實現具有廣泛吸引力的利率。

At Arch, we believe that prioritizing expected profitability of our market share by allocating capital to lines of business with attractive risk adjusted returns gives us the best opportunity to outperform through the cycle. This is what we mean by cycle management, and we stand by the historical results of this approach.

在 Arch，我們相信，透過將資本分配給具有有吸引力的風險調整回報的業務線來優先考慮我們市場份額的預期盈利能力，將為我們在整個週期中提供超越表現的最佳機會。這就是我們所說的周期管理，我們也堅持這種方法的歷史成果。

While the market may be more competitive, ample growth opportunities remain. This is true despite emerging macroeconomic concerns, including the potential impact of tariffs, that increased uncertainty for many of our insureds across the globe and raised inflationary risks for some of our businesses.

儘管市場競爭可能更加激烈，但仍存在充足的成長機會。儘管出現了一些宏觀經濟問題，包括關稅的潛在影響，增加了我們全球許多被保險人的不確定性，並增加了我們一些業務的通膨風險，但情況仍然如此。

During times such as these, risk selection is critical as a growing number of our previously attractive accounts no longer meet our return criteria. We believe the acumen of our underwriting teams, breadth of our platform, investment in data and analytics, and depth of our financial resources have Arch well positioned to navigate the P&C cycle.

在這樣的時期，風險選擇至關重要，因為越來越多以前有吸引力的帳戶不再符合我們的回報標準。我們相信，憑藉承保團隊的敏銳洞察力、平台的廣度、數據和分析方面的投資以及雄厚的財務資源，Arch 完全有能力應對 P&C 週期。

Now we'll turn to our segments, starting with Reinsurance. Reinsurance results were solid despite substantial catastrophic losses in the quarter. A 91.8 combined ratio, inclusive of 18 points of catastrophic losses, demonstrates the strong underlying profitability of our diversified reinsurance portfolio.

現在讓我們來談談我們的細分市場，從再保險開始。儘管本季遭受了巨大的災難性損失，但再保險業績仍然穩健。91.8 的綜合成本率（包括 18 個百分點的災難性損失）顯示我們多元化再保險組合具有強大的潛在獲利能力。

Growth in net premium written in the quarter was modest due to an increased level of competition, more risk retention by ceding companies, and reducing our participation for treaties where margins no longer meet our hurdles.

由於競爭加劇、分保公司風險保留增加以及我們減少參與利潤不再能滿足我們要求的合同，本季度淨保費增長溫和。

In the first quarter, the Reinsurance Group deployed additional capacity into property catastrophe lines where opportunities remain attractive, particularly in loss-impacted accounts. Specialty premium writings declined primarily due to non-renewing a large structural transaction. Weaker margins in Cyber and parts of our International treaty business also led to reduced premium writings. Treaty Casualty lines experienced growth in the quarter as ArchRe recapitalized on a handful of select opportunities. We are hopeful these lines will continue to achieve rate and that treaty casualty market terms and conditions will continue to improve.

第一季度，再保險集團向財產巨災險種部署了額外的承保能力，這些險種的機會仍然具有吸引力，特別是在受損失影響的帳戶中。專業優質保險業務的下滑主要是由於未續簽一項大型結構性交易。網路業務和部分國際條約業務的利潤率下降也導致保費收入減少。由於 ArchRe 對少數精選機會進行了資本重組，本季條約意外險業務實現了成長。我們希望這些險種能夠繼續實現費率目標，並且合約傷亡險市場條款和條件將繼續改善。

As we look towards mid-year renewals, particularly wind coverage in Florida and the Gulf, we expect additional demand from existing and new clients. On the supply side, it is worth noting that for many reinsurers and the ILS funds, these zone represents peak exposure. As a result, significant additional capacity may be harder to come by, even if the market is more competitive on the margins.

當我們展望年中續約時，特別是佛羅裡達州和墨西哥灣的風電覆蓋範圍，我們預計現有和新客戶將有更多需求。在供應方面，值得注意的是，對於許多再保險公司和 ILS 基金而言，這些區域代表著高峰風險敞口。因此，即使市場利潤率競爭更加激烈，獲得大量額外產能也可能變得更加困難。

Moving to our Insurance Segment where the California wildfires led to a small underwriting loss for the quarter due in part to commercial risk from the recently acquired Middle Market Commercial and Entertainment businesses. The additional premium generated from those businesses contributed to the insurance group $1.9 billion of net premium written in the quarter, a 25% increase from the first quarter of 2024. The integration of the middle market business is progressing well, and we remain excited about the increased capabilities this team brings to the Arch Insurance platform.

轉到我們的保險部門，加州野火導致本季承保損失較小，部分原因是最近收購的中型市場商業和娛樂業務的商業風險。這些業務產生的額外保費為保險集團貢獻了本季 19 億美元的淨保費，比 2024 年第一季成長了 25%。中階市場業務的整合進展順利，我們對團隊為 Arch Insurance 平台帶來的增強功能感到興奮。

As we've said before, there isn't one underwriting cycle, but many. In today's market, it's possible to deliver double digit growth in some lines while experiencing similar declines in others. In the first quarter, we generated meaningful growth in casualty-led sectors, including Construction, National Accounts, and International Casualty. At the same time, we experienced premium reductions in other lines of business due to rate decreases and our desire to maintain margins in lines such as E&S Property and professional lines, including Cyber.

正如我們之前所說，承保週期不只有一個，而是有許多個。在當今市場，某些產品線可能實現兩位數成長，而其他產品線則可能出現類似的下滑。第一季度，我們在以傷亡險為主的行業實現了顯著成長，包括建築業、國民帳戶和國際傷亡險。同時，由於費率下降以及我們希望保持 E&S 財產和包括網路在內的專業業務線的利潤率，我們其他業務線的保費也有所下降。

We have seen competition increasing in the London market specialty lines, which has made profitable growth difficult. Looking ahead, we expect continued growth in casualty lines as well as the US Middle Market, where opportunities remain for both rate and premium growth. We are well-positioned across the insurance group because of our market-leading capabilities and relevance with distribution partners that gives us a first look at many opportunities. The mortgage segment continues to provide a steady earning stream, contributing $252 million of underwriting income in the first quarter.

我們看到倫敦市場專業線的競爭日益激烈，這使得獲利成長變得困難。展望未來，我們預計意外險和美國中型市場將持續成長，費率和保費仍有成長機會。由於我們擁有市場領先的能力以及與分銷合作夥伴的密切關係，我們在整個保險集團中處於有利地位，這使我們能夠首先看到許多機會。抵押貸款部門繼續提供穩定的收入來源，第一季貢獻了 2.52 億美元的承保收入。

Economic uncertainty, limited housing supply and high relative mortgage rates continued to create headwinds for new mortgage origination, which resulted in modest new insurance returns in our US and International mortgage businesses.

經濟不確定性、房屋供應有限以及相對較高的抵押貸款利率繼續對新抵押貸款發放造成阻力，導致我們的美國和國際抵押貸款業務的新保險回報不高。

For U.S. MI, high mortgage interest rates and home price appreciation have kept persistency around 82% and insurance in force relatively stable. The delinquency rate of our enforced portfolio remains low, ending the quarter below 2%. Our near-term outlook for the mortgage industry is unlikely to change significantly. Well, recessionary trends resulting from tariffs and other economic policy could create headwinds, we still expect the mortgage segment to continue generating attractive underwriting income given the high credit quality and embedded equity of our in-force portfolio.

對於美國抵押貸款利率而言，高抵押貸款利率和房價上漲使得抵押貸款持續性維持在 82% 左右，有效保險也相對穩定。我們的強制執行投資組合的拖欠率仍然很低，本季末低於 2%。我們對抵押貸款行業的短期前景不太可能發生重大變化。雖然關稅和其他經濟政策導致的經濟衰退趨勢可能會帶來阻力，但鑑於我們現有投資組合的高信用品質和內含權益，我們仍然預期抵押貸款部門將繼續產生有吸引力的承保收入。

Turning to our investment group, where invested assets increased by 4% from year end to $43.1 billion, providing a large, sustainable contributor to group earnings. Investment market volatility increased broadly, leading us to reposition our portfolio to a more market-neutral position.

談到我們的投資集團，其投資資產較年底成長了 4%，達到 431 億美元，為集團獲利提供了巨大且可持續的貢獻。投資市場波動性普遍增加，促使我們將投資組合重新定位到更市場中立的位置。

To manage the cycle, it's important to understand that you cannot control the market, but you can control how your underwriting teams respond to it. At Atch, we manage the different cycles across our many lines with the ability of our underwriters to access, analyze, and ultimately select risk.

為了管理週期，重要的是要明白你無法控制市場，但你可以控制承保團隊對市場的反應。在 Atch，我們利用承保人獲取、分析並最終選擇風險的能力來管理多個險種的不同周期。

Over time our underwriting teams have built strong relationships with our distribution partners, which gives us an access advantage as they look to place risk with fewer, more relevant carriers, including Arch. Risk analysis combines experience, expertise, and deep analytical insight to understand and assess the underlying risk and match it with a technical price that reflects an adequate premium for that risk.

隨著時間的推移，我們的核保團隊與我們的分銷合作夥伴建立了牢固的關係，這為我們提供了准入優勢，因為他們希望將風險轉移給更少、更相關的承運商，包括 Arch。風險分析結合經驗、專業知識和深入的分析洞察力來理解和評估潛在風險，並將其與反映該風險的適當溢價的技術價格相匹配。

Ultimately, reselection is what separates the winners from the losers. If the return doesn't adequately account for the risk, you must be willing to let others take the business. A PNC market in transition is one where Arch can and has previously demonstrated its ability to find success. While premium growth may be more challenging than in recent years, plenty of profitable opportunities remain. For a company with a strong underwriting culture like Arch, this is a market where we can stand out and continue to maximize returns for our shareholders.

最終，重新選擇才是決定勝負的關鍵。如果回報不能充分抵消風險，您必須願意讓其他人接手這項業務。在轉型中的 PNC 市場中，Arch 能夠並且已經證明了其成功的能力。儘管保費增長可能比近年來更具挑戰性，但盈利機會仍然存在。對於像 Arch 這樣具有強大承保文化的公司來說，在這個市場中我們可以脫穎而出並繼續為股東最大化回報。

François?

弗朗索瓦？

Thank you, Nicolas, and good morning to all. Last night, we reported our first quarter results with after-tax operating income of $1.54 per share, resulting in an annualized operating return on average common equity of 11.5% and growth in book value per share of 3.8% for the quarter.

謝謝你，尼可拉斯，大家早安。昨晚，我們報告了第一季業績，稅後營業收入為每股 1.54 美元，本季平均普通股年化營業報酬率為 11.5%，每股帳面價值成長率為 3.8%。

At a high level, our three business segments delivered excellent underlying results, with an overall ex-cat accident year combined ratio of 81%, and importantly, each of our segments showing an improvement for that metric over the same quarter one year ago.

總體而言，我們的三個業務部門都取得了出色的基本業績，除重大事故外，年度綜合賠付率為 81%，而且重要的是，與去年同期相比，我們每個部門的該指標都有所改善。

Our underwriting income included $167 million of favorable prior year development on a pre-tax basis in the quarter, or 4 points on the overall combined ratio. We recognized favorable development across all three of our segments, and in many of our lines of business, but the effect was most notable in short-tail lines in our Reinsurance segment and in Mortgage due to strong cure activity.

我們的核保收入包括本季稅前 1.67 億美元的有利上年發展，或整體綜合成本率上升 4 個百分點。我們認識到，我們的三個部門以及許多業務線都取得了良好的發展，但由於強勁的治癒活動，再保險部門和抵押貸款部門的短尾業務線的效果最為顯著。

The acquisition of the MidCorp and Entertainment insurance businesses continues to roll through our financial metrics within the Insurance segment. This quarter, the net premiums written coming from the acquired businesses was $373 million, contributing 24.2 points to the reported year-over-year premium growth for the segment, and generally consistent with last quarter.

對 MidCorp 和娛樂保險業務的收購持續影響著我們保險部門的財務指標。本季度，來自收購業務的淨保費收入為 3.73 億美元，為該部門報告的同比保費增長貢獻了 24.2 個百分點，與上一季基本持平。

Also, the inclusion of the acquired business in the segment's results lowered the current accident year ex-cat combined ratio by 1.1 points. This can be further broken down to include:

此外，將收購的業務納入該部門的業績後，本事故年度的除巨災因素綜合成本率降低了 1.1 個百分點。這可以再細分為：

the current quarter acquisition expense ratio that was lowered by 0.9 points due to the write-off of deferred acquisition costs for the acquired business at closing under purchase GAAP.

本季度收購費用率下降了 0.9 個百分點，原因是根據收購 GAAP，在交易結束時註銷了被收購業務的遞延收購成本。

the other operating expense ratio that was lowered by 0.9 points and the (inaudible) year ex-cat loss ratio that ended up being 0.7 points higher, reflecting the underlying results of the acquired business.

其他營業費用率降低了 0.9 個百分點，而（聽不清楚）年度除巨災損失率最終上升了 0.7 個百分點，反映了收購業務的基本業績。

The quarter-over-quarter comparison of net premiums written for the Reinsurance segment, showing growth of 2.2%, was also impacted by a few items. Of note, this quarter's net premiums written includes approximately $70 million of reinstatement premiums, mostly related to the California wildfires. Offsetting this benefit was the non-renewal of large structured transactions in the specialty line of business, which reduced our top line by $147 million in the quarter. There were also some timing differences in the recognition of certain treaty renewals, which resulted in lower net premiums written in the quarter of approximately $103 million.

再保險部門淨保費收入較上季成長 2.2%，但也受到一些專案的影響。值得注意的是，本季的淨保費收入包括約 7,000 萬美元的恢復保費，主要與加州野火有關。抵銷這一好處的是專業業務線中大型結構化交易的不再續簽，這導致我們本季的營業收入減少了 1.47 億美元。在確認某些條約續約方面也存在一些時間差異，導致本季淨保費收入減少約 1.03 億美元。

Our Mortgage segment delivered, yet again, another very strong quarter with underwriting income of $252 million. Even though the origination environment remains challenged, the underlying fundamentals of the business are excellent, as exhibited by most of our key metrics, including a very low delinquency rate for our US MI business, which currently stands at 1.96%.

我們的抵押貸款部門再次取得了非常強勁的業績，承銷收入達到 2.52 億美元。儘管發起環境仍然充滿挑戰，但業務的基本面仍然很好，這從我們的大多數關鍵指標中可以看出，包括我們美國 MI 業務的拖欠率非常低，目前為 1.96%。

On the investment front, we earned a combined $431 million pre-tax from net investment income and income from funds accounting using the equity method, or $1.13 per share, pre-tax. The reduction in net investment income relative to last quarter is attributable to a few items, including the impact of paying a $1.9 billion special dividend in December, the timing of incentive compensation expenses, slightly lower interest rates in the quarter and the repositioning of our portfolio to a lower risk posture in light of the current macroeconomic uncertainty.

在投資方面，我們從淨投資收益和使用權益法的基金會計收益中獲得了總計 4.31 億美元的稅前收益，即每股稅前收益 1.13 美元。淨投資收益與上一季相比有所減少，原因有幾個，包括12月份支付19億美元特別股息的影響、激勵性薪酬費用的發放時間、本季度利率略有下降，以及在當前宏觀經濟不確定的背景下，我們將投資組合重新定位至較低風險狀態。

Income from operating affiliates was down this quarter, mostly due to a lower level of affiliate income at Somers Re, in part as a result of California wildfires. Cash flow from operations remained strong. It was approximately $1.5 billion for the quarter.

本季來自營運附屬公司的營收下降，主要是由於 Somers Re 的附屬公司收入下降，而部分原因是加州野火。經營活動現金流依然強勁。本季約為 15 億美元。

Our effective tax rate on pretax operating income was an expense of 11.7% for the quarter, and reflects a one-time discrete benefit of 4.6% related to differences in the expensing of non-cash compensation. Also, it is worth mentioning that we started to amortize this quarter the deferred tax asset we established at the end of 2023 related to the introduction of the Bermuda Corporate Income Tax. This benefit does not impact our operating or our net income effective tax rates in the period, but as we mentioned previously, will flow through our financials as a reduction to taxes paid. As of January 1, our peak zone natural cap Probable Maximum Loss for a single event, 1 in 250 year return level on a net basis, increased slightly and now stands at 9% of tangible shareholders' equity. Our PML remains well-below our internal limits.

本季度，我們的稅前營業收入有效稅率為 11.7%，反映了與非現金薪資費用化差異相關的 4.6% 的一次性單獨收益。另外值得一提的是，我們本季開始攤銷與百慕達企業所得稅的引進相關的於 2023 年底建立的遞延稅務資產。此項福利不會影響我們當期的營業或淨收入有效稅率，但正如我們之前提到的，將作為已繳稅款的減少流入我們的財務。截至 1 月 1 日，我們的高峰區域自然上限單一事件的最大可能損失（淨值為 250 年回報水準中的 1 分之一）略有增加，目前為有形股東權益的 9%。我們的 PML 仍遠低於我們的內部限制。

On the capital management front, we repurchased $196 million worth of our common shares in the first quarter, and an additional $100 million in April, demonstrating our ongoing, disciplined approach to managing our capital to enhance shareholder returns.

在資本管理方面，我們在第一季回購了價值 1.96 億美元的普通股，並在 4 月回購了另外 1 億美元，這表明我們持續、嚴格地管理資本，以提高股東回報。

In closing, our balance sheet remains extremely strong with common shareholders' equity of $20.7 billion, and a debt plus preferred to capital ratio remains low at 14.7%. With these introductory comments, we are now prepared to take your questions.

最後，我們的資產負債表依然非常強勁，普通股股東權益為 207 億美元，負債加優先股資本比率仍維持在 14.7% 的低點。有了這些介紹性的評論，我們現在準備好回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Mike Zaremski, BMO.

（操作員指示）Mike Zaremski，BMO。

Hey, good morning, thanks. I guess, thanks for all the insightful market commentary. On the reinsurance group deploying additional capacity into catastrophe lines, you said that loss impacted costs remain particularly attractive.

嘿，早上好，謝謝。我想，感謝所有富有洞察力的市場評論。關於再保險集團在災難保險中部署額外容量的問題，您說，受損失影響的成本仍然特別有吸引力。

Should we be -- I guess, we'll think through kind of the -- how to change our loss ratio a bit, if you kind of feel like you're going to continue leaning in. Any kind of updates to your cat load guide, I believe it was 7 to 8 points when you updated us last, should we expect that number to move up a bit?

我們是否應該——我想，我們會仔細考慮——如果你覺得你會繼續傾斜的話，如何稍微改變我們的損失率。您的貓負載指南有任何更新嗎？我相信您上次更新時是 7 到 8 點，我們是否應該預期這個數字會上升一點？

I don't think so. I think the number should be relatively stable. I mean full year cat load. Obviously, there's seasonality to it. As we look at market conditions, we certainly have thought that after the California wildfires, there might be a little bit of a I think a more -- some stabilization in that market, which we think will happen, although as we touch on, I think Florida is its own different market, right?

我不這麼認為。我認為這個數字應該是相對穩定的。我指的是全年的貓負荷。顯然，它具有季節性。當我們觀察市場狀況時，我們當然認為，在加州野火之後，市場可能會稍微穩定一些，我們認為這種情況會發生，儘管正如我們所提到的，我認為佛羅裡達州是它自己不同的市場，對吧？

So a little bit early for us to know exactly how kind of quarter is going to ultimately perform what opportunities we're going to see there. But big picture, I think what we saw at the start of the year seems to be holding up pretty well.

因此，對於我們來說，現在還為時過早，無法確切知道本季最終將表現如何，以及我們將看到哪些機會。但從總體來看，我認為我們在年初看到的情況似乎保持得相當好。

I agree. Okay. I think the Florida outlook, as we see it is -- for the reason I described in my comments is pretty flattish. So I think we like the business. I think the -- if our teams -- again, we don't know, but if our teams find opportunities to grow and we expect more demand in the marketplace for several reasons.

我同意。好的。我認為，正如我們所見，佛羅裡達州的前景——出於我在評論中描述的原因——相當平淡。所以我認為我們喜歡這項業務。我認為——如果我們的團隊——再說一次，我們不知道，但如果我們的團隊找到成長的機會，我們預期市場會有更多的需求，原因有幾個。

I think the FHCF is raising the retention by $1.5 billion. And I think they -- we're seeing more cedents wanted to increase their limits, things that they haven't been able to do in the last few years because of the lack of capacity. So we think an opportunity to potentially do more if the rates hold up.

我認為 FHCF 將把保留金提高 15 億美元。我認為他們——我們看到越來越多的債權人希望提高他們的限額，但由於缺乏能力，他們在過去幾年裡一直無法做到這一點。因此，我們認為，如果利率維持不變，就有機會做更多。

Got it. Okay. Switching gears to market competition outside of reinsurance. I think the common theme has been in recent quarters that large account property is well priced, and we're seeing some more meaningful downward pressure. You mentioned in your prepared remarks, the London specialty market as well.

知道了。好的。轉向再保險以外的市場競爭。我認為最近幾季的共同主題是大帳戶資產定價合理，而且我們看到了更有意義的下行壓力。您在準備好的發言中也提到了倫敦專業市場。

Maybe can you kind of unpack what you mean by the London specialty market and maybe kind of help frame which lines in particular are -- the clock isn't where you'd want to grow as much?

也許您能解釋一下您所說的倫敦專業市場是什麼意思，也許能幫助您明確哪些產品線是特別的——時鐘並不是您想要成長的地方？

Yes. I think in London, what's happening, I mean it's twofold. First, I think we've seen after years of good results, more appetite for people to expand in lines like (inaudible) marine and energy. The typical lines of business that are returned historically out of Lloyds. And also, I think what we are seeing is London is kind of the excess and surplus market of the rest of the world.

是的。我認為在倫敦發生的事情是雙重的。首先，我認為，經過多年的良好業績，我們看到人們對在海洋和能源等領域擴張的興趣越來越大。勞合社歷史上回歸的典型業務線。而且，我認為我們看到的是倫敦是世界其他地區的過剩和剩餘市場。

And so we're seeing as companies in their local market become more comfortable with their risk there, their appetite expand. And so there is a little bit less business coming from Australia, from Asia, from jurisdiction that historically relies on Lloyd's as the appetite of their local companies get diminished.

因此，我們看到，隨著當地市場的公司對當地風險的承受能力增強，他們的胃口也隨之擴大。因此，來自澳洲、亞洲以及歷史上依賴勞合社的司法管轄區的業務有所減少，因為當地公司的意願有所減弱。

So that's what we're seeing. We're seeing the combination of the two. I mean, the tailwinds for us and a few other markets is that the market is consolidating around leaders. And I think we will lead in many of our lines of business. So it's difficult to predict. So it's come out, but we feel positive about how we are positioned to continue to take advantage of the market there.

這就是我們所看到的。我們看到了兩者的結合。我的意思是，對我們和其他一些市場而言，順風是市場正在圍繞領導者進行整合。我認為我們將在許多業務領域處於領先地位。所以很難預測。所以它已經出來了，但我們對如何繼續利用那裡的市場感到樂觀。

Thanks for the color.

謝謝你的顏色。

Cave Montazeri, Deutsche Bank.

蒙塔澤里洞，德意志銀行。

Thank you. My first question is going to be on net premium growth in reinsurance. I think it's pretty clear that the days of 30% plus growth in NPW are behind us now as you become more selective. I'm assuming also 2.2% growth, it's also a little bit too low to expect going forward.

謝謝。我的第一個問題是關於再保險淨保費的成長。我認為，隨著我們變得更加挑剔，NPW 成長 30% 以上的日子已經過去了。我還假設成長率為 2.2%，這對於未來的預期來說也有點太低了。

So can you maybe unpack some of the key drivers of the deceleration you saw in the quarter? Maybe give us a bit more details on the impact of the structured yields. Just to give us -- help us understand maybe where -- how we should think about that going forward in terms of premium growth in reinsurance.?

那麼，您能否解釋一下本季經濟減速的一些關鍵驅動因素？也許您可以向我們提供一些有關結構化收益影響的更多細節。只是為了讓我們 - 幫助我們理解也許 - 我們應該如何看待未來再保險保費增長的問題？

Yeah, I mean I touched on it in my comments, right? There's a couple of items. If you adjust for what we mentioned, again, we're not trying to do the that and adjust for everything. But if you adjust for those two things, you still get to a call it, like 6%, 7% growth rate, which may be more consistent with what we see in the near future.

是的，我的意思是我在我的評論中提到了這一點，對嗎？有幾件物品。如果您根據我們提到的內容進行調整，那麼我們不會嘗試這樣做並針對所有內容進行調整。但如果針對這兩點進行調整，仍然可以獲得 6%、7% 的成長率，這可能與我們在不久的將來看到的成長率更一致。

But beyond that, I'd say there's really a separation like there's -- we had good growth in property other than property cat and in casualty where we saw some decreases on the specialty line beyond the structured and the timing of accruals on written premium. And there, I'd say it's a function of some of the lines or some of the smaller specialty lines that we participate in, where there's been more competition.

但除此之外，我想說的是，確實存在著一種分離，就像——除了財產巨災險和意外險之外，我們在財產險方面也取得了良好的增長，在意外險方面，我們看到專業險種在結構化和已承保保費應計時間方面有所下降。我想說，這是我們參與的一些生產線或一些較小的專業生產線的功能，這些生產線的競爭更加激烈。

And cyber is a prime example of that. It's a combination of rates coming down a little and also of some of our seeding companies retaining more of the risk. So that's how I'd say, like midterm, yeah, you're right, the 30% growth is probably behind us, but for the near term at least. But hopefully, these couple of things help you kind of reconcile a little bit like from the 2.2% to a what you may perceive to be a more kind of realistic expected growth in -- for the rest of the year.

網路就是一個典型的例子。這是由於利率略有下降以及我們的一些播種公司承擔了更多風險所造成的。所以我想說，就像中期選舉一樣，是的，你是對的，30% 的成長可能已經過去了，但至少在短期內是如此。但希望這幾件事能幫助您將 2.2% 的成長率與您可能認為的今年剩餘時間內更現實的預期成長率進行協調。

Yeah. I think in the specialty book, you have a mix of lines of business. I mean it goes from credit to a cyber to agriculture and a few others. So in our team are really scouting the world to find opportunities. We had a great opportunity in Brazil last year on the agriculture side. And this year, the (inaudible) is reading more of the business. So I think you have to be opportunistic in those lines of business to make money.

是的。我認為在專業書籍中，有多種業務線。我的意思是它涵蓋了從信貸到網路到農業以及其他一些領域。因此，我們的團隊正在世界各地尋找機會。去年我們在巴西的農業方面獲得了巨大的機會。今年，（聽不清楚）正在閱讀更多的業務。所以我認為你必須在這些業務領域抓住機會才能賺錢。

So yes, if we have a big book, the ups and downs offset each other in the last few years. It grew together because it was what the hard market does. I think we should be prepared to see more ups and down quarter-by-quarter going forward in that particular book. That's what we want them to do.

所以是的，如果我們有一本大書，過去幾年的起伏就會互相抵消。它之所以能共同成長，是因為這是硬市場所做的事情。我認為我們應該做好準備，在未來的季度中看到這本書的更多起伏。這正是我們希望他們做的。

I think that's very helpful color. My second question is on casualty. Last year, a big theme was just the strengthening in the capital to reserves at the industry level. We haven't seen much of that so far in 2025. I think some people are thinking maybe we might be past the point of maximum fear with regard to social inflation.

我認為這是非常有用的顏色。我的第二個問題是關於傷亡的。去年，一個大的主題就是產業層面的資本儲備的加強。到 2025 年為止，我們還沒有看到太多這樣的情況。我認為有些人認為我們可能已經過了對社會通膨的最大恐懼點。

Just wondering like what your thoughts are? Do you agree with that? What do you think we're just in the eye of the storm and there's more pain to come in the second half of 2025?

只是想知道您的想法是什麼？你同意嗎？您認為我們正處於風暴眼中，2025 年下半年還會有更多痛苦嗎？

My prediction is I don't know when the pain will come, but it will come, there's more pain. That would be my -- how people manage the pain and I can't tell, but we think the casualty social inflation story has not fully played out. I think that's our view.

我的預測是，我不知道痛苦何時會到來，但它一定會到來，而且會更加痛苦。那就是我的——人們如何應對痛苦，我無法說，但我們認為傷亡社會通膨的故事還沒有完全上演。我認為這就是我們的觀點。

And we're still getting definitely rate above trend on our casualty line and where we feel comfortable with the exposure, the jurisdiction, the type of the terms and condition that we get, I think we're willing to lean in.

而且，我們的傷亡險費率肯定仍高於趨勢水平，而且，只要我們對風險敞口、管轄權以及獲得的條款和條件類型感到滿意，我想我們願意接受。

But I don't think we are still at the case where it's a market that you can take a share of it and guarantee that you're going to make an adequate return. So I think there's more to come. That would be our general underwriting view.

但我不認為我們現在處於這樣的情況：你可以從中分一杯羹，並保證獲得足夠的回報。所以我認為未來還會有更多。這就是我們的整體核保觀點。

Very clear. Thank you.

非常清楚。謝謝。

Elyse Greenspan, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的伊莉絲‧格林斯潘。

Hi, thanks. Good morning. My first one, I think, is a quick one. François, the 7% adjusted growth in reinsurance that you were talking about, in the quarter. Is that excluding reinstatements and the structured deals? I just want to make sure I understand what you're backing out.

你好，謝謝。早安.我認為我的第一個是一個快速的。弗朗索瓦，您談到本季再保險調整後成長率為 7%。這是否不包括恢復和結構化交易？我只是想確保我明白你退出的原因。

No, I'm just putting back in the two items I mentioned. That's all. So the -- I'm not backing out the reinstatements, I'm just handing back the non-renewed deals and the timing of the accruals on some business.

不，我只是把我提到的兩件物品放回去了。就這樣。所以——我不會撤回恢復協議，我只是將未續約的交易和某些業務的應計時間交還。

Okay. Got it. And then my second question is on the commentary around the midyear. It sounds like you're expecting perhaps some opportunity on the demand side, what about pricing? I guess, are you guys expecting that price is probably down, but that -- there could be some growth opportunities just with demand. Can you help me think through those two pieces?

好的。知道了。我的第二個問題是關於年中評論的。聽起來您可能期待需求方面出現一些機會，那麼定價方面呢？我想，你們是否預期價格可能會下降，但僅憑需求就可能存在一些成長機會。你能幫我思考這兩件事嗎？

So clearly, it is the data point at (inaudible) where single-digit down, most places, maybe a bit more than that in Japan due to, I think, one of the players buying less, which the market's crumble around that. But I think the dynamic in Florida is, as I said in my remarks, is a little different because it's a big zone for both markets.

因此很明顯，數據點在（聽不清楚）處，大多數地方的降幅都呈現個位數，可能比日本的降幅更大一些，我認為這是由於其中一個參與者的購買量減少，導致市場崩潰。但我認為佛羅裡達州的動態，正如我在發言中所說，有點不同，因為它是兩個市場的一個大區域。

And you -- the dynamic is people like the top players, but they're not that many top players and people didn't like the bottom of the program. There's not as much -- and what we've seen in the past, and we're seeing still today is bottom of the programs, which have been impacted by the last year, the hurricane last year, Milton, we'd expect those probably to see some price increase and would that be compensated by price decrease at the top of the market at the top of the problem, I don't know.

而你——動態是人們喜歡頂級球員，但頂級球員並不多，而且人們不喜歡項目中的墊底球員。沒有那麼多——我們過去看到的情況，以及我們今天仍然看到的是項目的底部，這些項目受到了去年颶風米爾頓的影響，我們預計這些項目的價格可能會有所上漲，但這是否會通過市場頂部價格下降來彌補，我不知道。

But I think that's why I think our view is, if things play out the way they should, which they never do. We would exploit something more flattish for Florida. And at that point, we feel that based on our positioning and we should be able at least to keep our share of the programs that are buying more, and therefore, we may have opportunity to deploy more capital.

但我認為這就是為什麼我認為我們的觀點是，如果事情按照應有的方式發展，但實際上卻從未如此。我們將為佛羅裡達州開發一些更平坦的東西。此時，我們認為，基於我們的定位，我們至少應該能夠保住我們在購買更多產品的項目中的份額，因此，我們可能有機會部署更多資本。

Okay. And then one last one. In insurance, if I kind of ex MidCorp, you got, I think, around like a 56.7% underlying loss ratio that was slightly below the Q4. Is that about like run rate is, I guess, on core Arch, right? And then we think about bringing in MidCorp on top? Or anything else we need to think about just with pricing and loss trend and dynamics on the margin as we go through the year.

好的。還有最後一個。在保險領域，如果我不考慮 MidCorp，我認為其潛在損失率約為 56.7%，略低於第四季。我猜，這是否類似於核心 Arch 上的運行率，對嗎？然後我們考慮引進 MidCorp？或我們需要考慮的任何其他事情，包括定價、損失趨勢以及全年的利潤動態。

Yeah. Well, we -- I mean, call it for the legacy Arch book, I mean it's at a high level, we'd say that our margins are holding up in terms of rate above trend kind of being kind of keeping us steady. The one thing, though, that you have to factor in somehow is the mix is changing, right?

是的。好吧，我們 - 我的意思是，稱之為傳統的 Arch 書，我的意思是它處於較高水平，我們會說我們的利潤率保持在高於趨勢的水平，這讓我們保持穩定。不過，你必須考慮到的一件事是，混合物正在發生變化，對嗎？

As we pivot a little bit more into casualty, you might see that underlying loss ratio go up a little bit as we see more competition on the property. And we mentioned it like a lot of our growth was in the casualty led kind of lines of business or profit units for us. So that might be the only thing. But big picture, we still think the loss ratio that we're -- we had this quarter is seeing no reason why it can't hold up at that level.

隨著我們更多地轉向意外險，您可能會看到，隨著財產險領域的競爭加劇，潛在損失率會略有上升。我們提到，我們的成長很大一部分來自於以意外險為主導的業務線或利潤單位。所以這可能是唯一的事情。但從整體來看，我們仍然認為本季的損失率沒有理由不能維持在該水準。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Andrew Kligerman, TD Securities.

道明證券的安德魯‧克里格曼 (Andrew Kligerman)。

Hey, good morning. First question is around the reserving. It looked like you had some nice favorable developments, particularly in reinsurance. But could you call out anything around commercial auto and other liability, net plus or minus in both insurance and reinsurance, how did that perform? And how do you feel about the reserving in those lines going forward?

嘿，早安。第一個問題是關於預訂的。看起來你們取得了一些不錯的進展，特別是在再保險方面。但是，您能否談談商業汽車和其他責任險、保險和再保險的淨正負情況，以及其表現如何？您對今後保留這些路線有何看法？

Great question. We -- our reserves are something we -- again, we mentioned before, we look at it every quarter. The actual versus expected that we monitor very carefully is looking good. But for us, it's a little bit early to call it victory. So we're monitoring everything, plus or minuses, yeah, there's always going to be the finer -- if you slice that down to very fine levels.

好問題。我們的儲備是我們之前提到的，我們每個季度都會查看它。我們仔細監測的實際情況與預期相比看起來不錯。但對我們來說，現在稱之為勝利還為時過早。因此，我們會監控一切，無論好壞，是的，總是會有更精細的 — — 如果你將其細分到非常精細的水平。

There are some pockets where we took a little bit of adverse, which were offset by others where we had some good favorable coming through. But big picture, I'd say we're flattish. I mean everything on the casualty kind of long tail side auto and some of the more difficult lines, as you mentioned, umbrella, et cetera, where we're comfortable with what the reserve -- what the indications are.

在某些方面，我們遭遇了一些不利因素，但在其他方面，我們獲得了一些有利因素，從而抵消了這些不利因素的影響。但從整體來看，我認為我們的表現比較平穩。我指的是傷亡類型的長尾側自動裝置和一些更困難的線路上的一切，正如你所提到的，雨傘等等，我們對儲備的內容感到滿意 - 指示是什麼。

Okay. So that's good to hear. And then maybe shifting this is sort of a two part question. Being clearly the acclaimed cycle manager that you are, could you share a little color on -- and maybe I know Nicolas, you mentioned many different cycles, but maybe very broadly two cycles, casualty and property, maybe we'll even skip professional or you could throw that in, if you want. .

好的。聽到這個消息我很高興。那麼也許改變這一點是一個由兩個部分組成的問題。作為廣受讚譽的週期經理，您能否分享一些細節——也許我知道尼古拉斯，您提到了許多不同的周期，但可能非常廣泛地提到了兩個週期，即傷亡和財產，也許我們甚至會跳過專業週期，或者如果您願意的話，您可以將其加入其中。。

But how do you see those cycles playing out as we sit here today? How much longer will we see property pricing come down? How much longer can casualty pricing hold up? I know it's a really tough question, but be really interested in your response on that.

但是，當我們今天坐在這裡時，您如何看待這些週期的進展？我們還能看到房價下跌多久？傷亡保險定價還能維持多久？我知道這是一個很難的問題，但我真的很想知道你的回答。

And then the second part is just what are you seeing with MGAs today? Are they still proliferating? Are they still very competitive? And I'll stop there. That was a lot of questions. Sorry for that.

那麼第二部分是您今天在 MGA 中看到了什麼？它們還在繁殖嗎？他們的競爭力還強嗎？我就講到這裡。有很多問題。很抱歉。

(multiple speakers) I'll start on the property side and I'll start on the -- I mean on the reinsurance side, I think my view is that the market is more disciplined. So I think we've seen rate decrease. But from a peak of the market, I think the markets remain attractive. We haven't seen any really actors behaving in a totally irrational way. The new guys are coming, but they're small.

（多位發言者）我將從房地產方面開始，我將從再保險方面開始，我認為我的觀點是市場更加規範。所以我認為我們已經看到利率下降。但從市場高峰來看，我認為市場仍然具有吸引力。我們還沒有看到任何演員表現出完全不理性的行為。新人正在到來，但他們個頭很小。

And so I think pretty -- we remain very optimistic about the property cat and the way the industry behaves in general on that aspect. If you move to the cat, the property in general and especially the E&S property and the North American net properties.

因此我認為——我們仍然對房地產行業以及整個行業在這方面的表現非常樂觀。如果您轉向貓，一般的財產，特別是 E&S 財產和北美淨財產。

I think you have -- there, you have a tale of two markets. I think you have the middle market, more, I would say, admitted retail where the convective storm and some of the recent cat element, I would say, will include the wildfire to a certain extent, keep putting pressure on the companies and they have to keep on getting rates to be a sure that they cover the cat load, which has gone up in the last few years.

我想你已經──你講了兩個市場的故事。我認為你們擁有中端市場，我想說，更多的是承認零售，其中對流風暴和最近的一些巨災因素，我想說，將在一定程度上包括野火，繼續給公司帶來壓力，他們必須繼續獲得費率，以確保他們能夠覆蓋巨災負荷，而巨災負荷在過去幾年中已經上升。

And then you have the more the E&S cat, coastal and maybe earthquake driven risk, where that's where the MGAs play a bigger role. So I think the market has responded to my surprise, very quickly giving up double-digit rate increases.

然後，您面臨的 E&S 巨災風險、沿海風險以及地震風險會更大，這時 MGAs 就會發揮更大的作用。所以我認為市場對我的意外做出了反應，很快就放棄了兩位數的升息。

We went through in and everybody was surprised, big limit was really something that people didn't like and took a ton of losses. So I think the market became in 2023, much more disciplined and cut limits, which really pushed when people -- when the capacity withdraw that's where you see rates going up. So we got a huge upswing, re-underwriting, terms and conditions.

我們經歷了這一切，每個人都感到驚訝，大限制確實是人們不喜歡的事情，並且遭受了大量的損失。因此，我認為到 2023 年，市場將變得更加規範，限制也會減少，這確實推動了人們的行動——當運力減少時，你會看到費率上升。因此，我們獲得了巨大的成長、重新承保、條款和條件。

And I think 1 year, 1.5 years later, I think we've seen MGAs, which their capacity has been cartel coming back with much bigger limits. And if you think of a typical risk, it's a $200 million risk where you need it probably 20 markets or more to complete. And let's say, Arch was doing the first 10 or doing the 10x10 and then the MGA come in and they do 40.

我認為一年或一年半之後，我們將會看到 MGAs 的卡特爾行為以更大的限製捲土重來。如果你考慮一個典型的風險，那就是 2 億美元的風險，你可能需要 20 個或更多的市場才能完成。假設 Arch 做了前 10 個或做了 10x10，然後 MGA 進來做了 40 個。

It creates a complete run for the hill in terms of if you say Arch was 10x10 and then MGA at $10 million capacity and then -- and now they have $40 million. So what do we do? We run for the hill and we're trying to reposition our $10 million elsewhere in the program, and that creates the huge pressure on the rates that we've seen. And I think capacity of MGAs have gone up this year. So I think they play a big role in my view, in quickly, the market turned to be much more competitive. That's what I see.

如果你說 Arch 是 10x10，然後 MGA 的容量為 1000 萬美元，那麼它就為山創造了一個完整的運行，現在他們有 4000 萬美元。那我們該怎麼做呢？我們逃之夭夭，試圖將 1000 萬美元重新投入該計劃的其他地方，這對我們所看到的利率造成了巨大的壓力。我認為今年 MGA 的容量有所增加。所以我認為他們發揮了很大的作用，在我看來，市場很快就會變得更有競爭力。這就是我所看到的。

And something on casualty?

還有關於傷亡的事情嗎？

So on casualty, there's less NGs. I think on casualty, I think what you've seen is -- and to go back into property, I think when you see markets like us, increasing capacity, maybe we increased capacity for [10] to [15]. We don't go from [10] to [40].

因此，就傷亡情況而言，意外事故較少。我認為在意外險方面，我認為你所看到的是——回到財產險方面，我認為當你看到像我們這樣的市場在增加承保能力時，也許我們增加了[10]的承保能力[15]。我們不會從[10]到[40]。

I think -- so if you go on the casualty side of the house, now whether it's E&S or -- you've seen the same thing. You've seen response to typical losses is reduction of limit. You want prices to be apply to multiple risk of business to create the diversification and the lower large number works better.

我認為 — — 如果你去災難方面，現在無論是 E&S 還是 — — 你都會看到同樣的事情。您已經看到，對典型損失的反應是降低限額。您希望價格能夠適用於多種業務風險，從而實現多樣化，並且較低的數字效果更好。

So I think -- that's what we've seen and the reduction of the capacity and the usual limit from 50 to 25 and to 15s have created this opportunity, especially on the excess side for rates to go up. I think we haven't seen a ton of people. In fact, we're seeing people still reducing limits. So this tells me that the runway to a more competitive marketplace is going to be longer.

所以我認為——這就是我們所看到的，容量的減少以及通常的限制從 50 到 25 和 15 創造了這個機會，特別是在超額方面，費率上漲。我認為我們沒見過很多人。事實上，我們看到人們仍在降低限制。所以這告訴我，通往更具競爭力的市場的跑道將會更長。

Got it. Thank you.

知道了。謝謝。

David Motemaden, Evercore ISI.

大衛·莫特馬登，Evercore ISI。

Hey, good morning. I had a question on the $147 million of structured deals that were non-renewed. Just so I'm thinking about it correctly. Were there any other chunkier quarters in 2024 that we should think about where like there were chunky structured deals that might not renew as we go through the rest of 2025?

嘿，早安。我對未續簽的 1.47 億美元結構性交易有疑問。只是為了讓我正確地思考這個問題。2024 年是否還有其他較大的季度值得我們考慮，例如在 2025 年剩餘時間內，是否有較大的結構化交易可能不會續約？

There's always some chunky books or deals that we write throughout the year. I mean, what we don't know is both they'll reappear or we'll be -- they may renew at the same thing at the same level, same kind of structure for another year. So hard to know what the impact may or may not be for the rest of the year.

我們全年總會寫一些厚書或做一些交易。我的意思是，我們不知道它們是否會再次出現，或者它們是否會在另一年以同樣的水平、相同的結構再次出現。因此很難知道這會對今年剩餘時間產生什麼影響。

Again, we're just trying to give you a bit of additional information on how the premium is -- why it's going up or down. Sometimes, it works in our favor in the sense that, yes, we write new deals that are significant and improve or increase the growth or the reported growth, but in this case, it was different.

再次強調，我們只是想向您提供一些有關保費如何上漲或下跌的額外資訊。有時，它對我們有利，是的，我們簽訂了重要的新交易，改善或增加了成長或報告的成長，但在這種情況下，情況有所不同。

So these are, I'd say, though, they're on the larger side. I mean it's unusual that we -- we don't have that many deals that are -- that have that much premium associated with them.

所以我想說，它們還是比較大的。我的意思是，這很不尋常，我們沒有那麼多涉及如此多溢價的交易。

Yeah, got it. Okay, thanks, and thanks for that color. And then on the insurance underlying loss ratio, I think last quarter, you spoke about it running at around the 58% level going forward. It obviously came in nicely below that this quarter.

是的，明白了。好的，謝謝，也謝謝你的顏色。關於保險基礎損失率，我想上個季度您談到未來該比率將保持在 58% 左右。本季度，這一數字顯然遠低於這一水平。

I'm wondering was there anything that drove that? It sounded like you split it out between the legacy Arch and MCE? Was there more improvement on the MCE side? Is that something we can expect to continue? So maybe some color around that would be helpful.

我想知道有什麼因素導致了這現象？聽起來你把它分成傳統的 Arch 和 MCE 吧？MCE 還有什麼改進嗎？我們可以期待這種情況會持續下去嗎？所以也許一些顏色會有幫助。

Yeah, hard to say. I think, I'd say, the quarterly numbers are matter, but we don't overly put too much weight on them. I'd say we want to make sure we have a longer term view of what underlying profitability of the book is.

是的，很難說。我想說，季度數據很重要，但我們不會過度重視它們。我想說，我們希望確保我們對這本書的潛在盈利能力有一個更長遠的認識。

So I would not factor in or expect any significant movements up or down, let's say, from -- for either the MCE or the legacy business. And as you know, I mean, last year, we had the Baltimore Bridge, which impacted the loss ratio upward. We didn't have that this quarter.

因此，我不會考慮或預期任何重大的上漲或下跌，無論是 MCE 還是傳統業務。如你所知，去年，我們遭遇了巴爾的摩大橋事故，這導致損失率上升。本季我們沒有出現這種情況。

So there's always going to be the random element of a couple of large clients here and there that may -- that have an impact ultimately on the quarterly loss ratio. So big picture, mail, we call it a fairly stable environment. And we always expect a little bit of volatility from quarter-to-quarter depending on what happens.

因此，總是會存在一些隨機因素，例如一些大客戶，最終可能會對季度損失率產生影響。所以從整體來看，郵件，我們稱之為相當穩定的環境。我們總是預期每個季度都會出現一些波動，具體取決於發生的情況。

Understood. Thank you.

明白了。謝謝。

Alex Scott, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的亞歷克斯·斯科特。

Hi, good morning. I thought I'd see if you could provide a little more commentary on what you're seeing in the property cat reinsurance market. I guess, specifically, what's your view of the impact of ILS? Is the pricing pressure more at the top of the tower. Any commentary on sort of the way it's affecting these towers and where you play in them? Thanks.

嗨，早安。我想看看您是否可以對財產巨災再保險市場的情況提供更多評論。我想，具體來說，您對 ILS 的影響有何看法？塔頂的定價壓力是否更大？您對於它對這些塔的影響方式以及您在其中玩遊戲的方式有何評論？謝謝。

Yeah, so what we've seen and what seems to continue to happen is what you described, more pressure at the top. We've seen the cat bond market being repriced to lower margin. So I think that put pressure also to the layer below the cat bond market.

是的，我們所看到的以及似乎繼續發生的事情正如你所描述的，高層壓力越來越大。我們已經看到巨災債券市場重新定價以降低保證金。所以我認為這也給巨災債券市場以下的層面帶來了壓力。

And obviously, there hasn't been any losses on those layers where at the bottom of the program between the California wildfire on the nationwide account and some of the storms that we've seen, we have a losses. So I think the more, I would say, the place where price decrease seems to be focusing is really at the top of the program.

顯然，在計劃的底層，即全國範圍內的加州野火和我們所見過的一些風暴之間，我們遭受了損失，而這些層面並沒有造成任何損失。因此我認為，價格下降的重點似乎確實在計劃的頂部。

So I think we -- Florida is going to be more complicated because I think, again, there's not that much supply in the marketplace. So I would expect it to maybe not be as strong as maybe in the northeast region where you haven't had a loss in any of the top players or middle to top players for a long time, and people see that.

所以我認為佛羅裡達州的情況會更加複雜，因為我認為市場上的供應量並不多。因此，我預計東北地區的表現可能不會那麼強勁，因為東北地區已經很長時間沒有出現過頂級球員或中頂級球員的失利，這一點大家都看到了。

So I think -- but yeah, I think the -- what you described is we expect it to -- if something is going to happen, my view is that's what's going to happen, it's probably more pressure at the top of the program and maybe less moderate pressure on the bottom.

所以我認為——但是是的，我認為——你所描述的是我們期望它——如果某件事將要發生，我的觀點是，這就是將要發生的事情，它可能會對項目頂部造成更大的壓力，而對底部造成較小的壓力。

Got it. That's helpful. Next one on capital management. I mean, you had very strong capitalization and growth slowing a little bit, just given the environment. How do you think about priorities there? And how quickly do I ramp up capital return if you don't get the opportunity to grow in the midyear.

知道了。這很有幫助。下一個是關於資本管理。我的意思是，你的資本非常雄厚，但考慮到當前的環境，成長速度略有放緩。您如何看待那裡的優先事項？如果年中沒有成長的機會，我能多快提高資本回報？

Yeah, I mean it's something we forecast. It's constantly -- it's part of the same framework. We've always had no question that if the growth moderates, which is it's starting to and we still have solid earnings coming through. We'll probably be in a position where we accumulate a bit more excess capital, and we'll probably be looking to return most of it back to our shareholders. So there could be some small M&A.

是的，我的意思是這是我們預測的事情。它始終是──同一框架的一部分。我們始終堅信，如果經濟成長開始放緩，我們仍然能夠獲得穩健的利潤。我們可能會累積更多的過剩資本，我們可能會尋求將大部分資本回饋給我們的股東。因此可能會有一些小型的併購。

There could be some other things that come our way. But at a high level, you could certainly -- I think it's reasonable for us to think that we'd be returning a significant amount of capital as we move forward. We had a special dividend late last year. We obviously like share buybacks a lot. And given (inaudible) pricing and the metrics work for us, we're happy to do that.

我們可能還會遇到其他一些事情。但從高層次來看，你當然可以——我認為我們有理由認為，隨著我們不斷前進，我們將返還大量資本。我們去年年底派發了特別股息。我們顯然非常喜歡股票回購。而考慮到（聽不清楚）定價和指標對我們有用，我們很樂意這樣做。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Wes Carmichael, Autonomous Research.

韋斯·卡邁克爾，自主研究。

Hey, good morning. In reinsurance, I think you mentioned a couple of times of primary companies retaining more risk. Just hoping you could provide a little more color on what you're seeing from primaries and maybe where that's most pronounced?

嘿，早安。在再保險方面，我想您曾幾次提到主要公司承擔了更多風險。只是希望您能提供更多關於您在初選中所看到的情況以及最明顯的地方的信息？

I think it's most pronounced in the other property where we see it, some of the other line of business, like maybe energy and are results have been good, seeing commissions are good, but companies feel more comfortable with their results.

我認為，這種現像在我們看到的其他行業中表現得最為明顯，其他一些業務線，例如能源，其業績一直很好，佣金也很好，但公司對他們的業績感到更滿意。

So that's a normal trend that you see as the -- as you go through the whole market and you go through the (inaudible) is that people tend to retain more of the risk. They bought the reinsurance because they either wanted the volatility and they were a portion of the business, they were unsure of the performance as they have reunderwritten their book, it's not unusual for people to feel more comfortable. I know insurance, that's what we do.

所以，這是一個正常的趨勢，當你經歷整個市場並經歷（聽不清楚）時，人們傾向於承擔更多的風險。他們購買再保險是因為他們想要波動性並且他們是業務的一部分，他們不確定業績，因為他們已經重新承保了他們的賬簿，人們感到更舒服並不罕見。我了解保險，這就是我們所做的。

And we are more comfortable with the risk. We definitely buy more insurance. So we move the reinsurance that we would buy to an excess of loss, where we retain more of the premium. So I think we haven't seen a ton of quota share going through excessive loss, but we've definitely seen companies as they feel more comfortable with the risk or feel better about their financial situation, retaining more of the risk.

我們對風險也更加放心。我們肯定會購買更多的保險。因此，我們將購買的再保險轉移到超額損失部分，這樣我們就可以保留更多的保費。因此，我認為我們還沒有看到大量的配額份額遭受過度損失，但我們確實看到，由於公司對風險感到更放心或對其財務狀況感覺更好，因此他們保留了更多的風險。

And certainly, on the structure, if you're related to the structure on the structure side, structured deals are usually capital-rated deals. So I think those deals last as long as the company is -- needs the surplus relief. If you go in a situation where they don't need the surplus relief anymore, then the deal goes away, so.

當然，就結構而言，如果您與結構方面的結構相關，那麼結構化交易通常是資本評級交易。所以我認為這些交易會持續到公司需要盈餘減免為止。如果他們不再需要盈餘救濟，那麼這筆交易就會消失。

I think that's helpful. And I think in mortgage, prepared remarks touched on headwinds of origination. Can you maybe just talk about what behavior you're seeing in that business? And are you seeing any potential leading indicators of recessionary activity at this point?

我認為這很有幫助。我認為，在抵押貸款方面，準備好的評論觸及了起源的阻力。您能否談談您在該行業中看到的行為？您現在是否看到了經濟衰退活動的任何潛在領先指標？

Too early. I mean, really too early. I mean we can speculate. We do the work. We certainly have a view that, yeah, I mean, if recession, we have a severe recession, and that impacts unemployment and home prices go down a little bit, that may have an impact on the performance of the book, but we keep going back to the strong fundamentals, the high credit quality of the borrowers.

太早了。我的意思是，真的太早了。我的意思是我們可以推測。我們做這項工作。我們當然有這樣的看法，是的，我的意思是，如果出現經濟衰退，嚴重的經濟衰退，對失業率和房價都會產生影響，這可能會對賬面表現產生影響，但我們會繼續關注強勁的基本面，借款人的高信用質量。

Home prices are -- there's a lot of equity that's been built up by the homeowners and their own. So it's a vastly different situation than what we had back in 2008. So -- or not to say that we don't worry about it because we do, but we're a lot more comfortable with our position. And for a stress scenario to generate or create significant hardship on Arch would take, it would have to be very, very severe. So we're -- at this point, we're -- we think, in a very good place.

房價－有很多資產是由房主和他們自己累積起來的。所以現在的情況與 2008 年的情況大不相同。所以——或者並不是說我們不擔心，因為我們確實擔心，但我們對我們的立場感到更加滿意。而對於壓力情境而言，如果要對 Arch 產生或造成重大困難，那麼它必須非常非常嚴重。因此，就目前情況而言，我們認為我們處於非常好的位置。

Great, thanks so much.

太好了，非常感謝。

Josh Shanker, Bank of America.

美國銀行的喬希·尚克（Josh Shanker）。

Oh, thank you for taking my question. Good morning, everybody. Back in the fourth quarter, you paid a big special dividend, you bought back a little stock. You bought back more stock this quarter. I tend to kind difficult to parse paying special dividends and buy back stock at the same time, either the return on the stock is attractive or you need to give money back to shareholders promptly because it's not so attractive.

哦，謝謝你回答我的問題。大家早安。在第四季度，您支付了一大筆特別股息，並回購了少量股票。本季您回購了更多股票。我傾向於認為同時支付特別股息和回購股票有點難以理解，要么股票回報很有吸引力，要么你需要及時將錢返還給股東，因為它不那麼有吸引力。

A couple of things there. One, can you talk about your philosophy, which is about three year ahead book value. But I've done a little bit of the math. And if the three year head book value rule of thumb applies, the market is very much underestimating your earnings power for the next couple of years. Can you talk about the philosophy of buybacks versus dividends and what that means for this year and what you think about the attractiveness of the stock?

那裡有幾件事。首先，您能談談您的理念嗎，也就是關於未來三年的帳面價值。但我已經做了一些計算。如果採用三年帳面價值經驗法則，市場就會大大低估您未來幾年的獲利能力。您能談談回購與股息的理念以及這對今年意味著什麼以及您如何看待股票的吸引力嗎？

Well, we like the stock. That's for sure. But I mean the biggest obstacle, Josh, is truly the level of the speed at which you can execute share buybacks. We have limits on daily trading volume, et cetera. So the main reason, if you put aside even if the price was right, and you say, well, it's really attractive to buy at a certain level, the advantage of a dividend is you can execute a much bigger return of capital I mean instantly versus over a long period of time.

嗯，我們喜歡這隻股票。這是肯定的。但我的意思是，喬希，最大的障礙實際上是你執行股票回購的速度。我們對每日交易量等等都有限制。因此，主要原因是，如果你把價格放在一邊，即使價格合適，你也會說，嗯，在某個水平買入確實很有吸引力，股息的優勢在於你可以獲得更大的資本回報，我的意思是立即而不是長期。

So for us to buy back, $1.8 billion of stock at the rate at which we can actually do it because of the restrictions we have would take a long time, at which point we'd accumulate more excess capital and you never catch up. So that is, I think, important to realize that there's only so much we can do with share buybacks.

因此，對我們來說，以我們實際能夠做到的速度回購 18 億美元的股票需要很長時間，因為我們所面臨的限制，到那時我們將累積更多的過剩資本，而你永遠也趕不上。因此，我認為，重要的是要認識到，我們在股票回購方面能做的事情是有限的。

When you get into what's the three year payback, yeah, three years is a good metric for us that we follow. Do we have a different view of what the book value might be out in three years out than you do, maybe and we take a hard look at what we know about our business.

當你談到三年的回報時，是的，三年對我們來說是一個很好的指標，我們遵循。我們對三年後的帳面價值的看法是否與您不同？也許吧，我們會認真審視我們對業務的了解。

But we're still within that roughly that three year payback period, and we still think there's a lot of good runway for us to keep growing book value at a good clip for the next little while. So that gives us a lot of comfort that buying back stock at this price has been -- is a good way to return capital to shareholders.

但我們仍處於大約三年的投資回收期內，我們仍然認為，我們有很大的發展空間，可以在未來一段時間內保持帳面價值的良好成長。因此，我們非常放心，以這個價格回購股票是向股東返還資本的好方法。

If you started now, do you think you could execute $2 billion in buybacks before year-end and preclude the need for a special dividend?

如果您現在開始，您是否認為您可以在年底前執行 20 億美元的回購並排除特別股息的需要？

It would be hard. It would be hard. I mean there's ways you can kind of create some programs, but we like to retain the flexibility, we like to have optionality, so locking yourselves in, and that's true in everything we do.

這會很難。這會很難。我的意思是，您可以透過多種方式創建一些程序，但我們希望保留靈活性，我們希望擁有可選性，從而將自己鎖定在內，這在我們所做的每一件事中都是如此。

So to lock yourselves into making it public that we're buying back a certain amount at a certain price is something we try not to do. We like to be opportunistic and it's something that we -- again, it's constantly something we look at and try to optimize as best we can.

因此，我們盡量避免公開宣布我們將以特定價格回購一定數量的股票。我們喜歡抓住機會，這是我們——再說一次，這是我們不斷關注並盡力優化的事情。

Well, thanks for being transparent about the behind the curtain, how this options made.

好吧，感謝您坦誠地告訴我們這些選擇的幕後情況。

Happy to do it.

很開心能做到。

Bye.

再見。

Talk later.

稍後再談。

Andrew Andersen, Jefferies.

安德魯·安德森（Andrew Andersen），傑富瑞集團（Jefferies）。

Hey, good morning. Just on the income from operating affiliates, I think it was $17 million in the quarter. It was down a bit year-over-year. I think that Somers and in Coface. Can you maybe just talk about the moving pieces there and perhaps how you're thinking about full year?

嘿，早安。僅從營運附屬公司的收入來看，我認為本季的收入為 1700 萬美元。與去年同期相比略有下降。我認為 Somers 和 Coface 都是這樣的。您能否談談那裡的動態以及您對全年的看法？

Yeah, Coface has been very, very good. So it's been a great story for us. We're extremely happy with it. There could be some pressure with trade credit going forward, but that's, again, something we're keeping an eye on. We don't have visibility or a ton of clarity on it.

是的，科法斯非常非常好。所以這對我們來說是一個很棒的故事。我們對此非常滿意。未來貿易信貸可能會面臨一些壓力，但這也是我們正在密切關注的事情。我們對此缺乏了解，也不太清楚。

So really, the drop in operating income from operating affiliates was mostly -- almost exclusively due to the summers, and let's remember that summers is effectively a side car to Arch Re. So you have wildfires this quarter, they impact us and they impacted summers as well.

因此，實際上，經營附屬公司的營業收入下降主要是——幾乎完全是由於夏季的影響，而且讓我們記住，夏季實際上是 Arch Re 的副業。因此本季發生了野火，這不僅影響了我們，也影響了夏季。

There's a little bit of a kind of a one-off on the Bermuda tax that was reflected in the Somers' financials Q1 of 2024 that maybe makes the drop more significant than you would think otherwise. But as you look for the run rate, I'd say this quarter is a bit lower than what we would normally think for the operating affiliates in general.

百慕達稅收有一點一次性的影響，這反映在 Somers 2024 年第一季的財務報表中，這可能使降幅比你想像的更大。但當你查看運行率時，我會說這個季度的運作率比我們通常認為的營運附屬公司的整體運作率要低一些。

And I think we're still looking -- when you think about our returns, we think plus or minus like where we're earning well into call it, 10% range on these investments, if not more, and let's just say we have over $1 billion in assets there. So hopefully, you can do the math from there.

我認為我們仍在尋找——當你考慮我們的回報時，我們會考慮加減，例如我們在這些投資上的收益可以達到 10% 左右，甚至更多，假設我們在那裡擁有超過 10 億美元的資產。所以希望您可以從那裡進行計算。

Thanks, that's helpful. And then just insurance expense ratio, and there was improvement in OpEx, but is full year '24 still a good way to think about the rest of the year for the OpEx? Or is there still some head count costs coming on?

謝謝，這很有幫助。然後只是保險費用率，並且營運支出有所改善，但 24 年全年是否仍然是思考今年剩餘時間營運支出的好方法？或者是否還會產生一些人員成本？

I mean, it's a good place. We are no question. I mean as we think about our growth and how we need to manage our expense base, we are being very thoughtful and diligent about do we need to replace people that design, do retirement, et cetera.

我的意思是，這是一個好地方。我們毫無疑問。我的意思是，當我們考慮我們的成長以及如何管理我們的費用基礎時，我們會非常認真和勤奮地考慮是否需要更換設計師、退休人員等等。

So we -- I think we're going to get some benefits from the MCE acquisition, like scale brings a little bit of a bit of leverage, a bit of kind of -- we can scale better. But no question that we're trying to hire still on the MCE side. We want to staff up with data scientists, and we need a few more actuaries, et cetera. But big picture, I think we are watching our expenses, and that's something that will be a focus as we move forward.

所以，我認為我們會從 MCE 收購中獲得一些好處，例如規模會帶來一點槓桿作用，讓我們能夠更好地擴大規模。但毫無疑問，我們仍在嘗試招募 MCE 方面的人才。我們希望招募資料科學家，還需要一些精算師等等。但從總體上看，我認為我們正在關注我們的開支，這將是我們今後關注的重點。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Meyer Shields, KBW.

邁耶希爾茲，KBW。

Great, thanks. I had the same question in two contexts. I think Nicolas started for comments talking about the preference of brokers to work with fewer bigger insurers. And I'm wondering if you could talk about the volume versus profitability implications of that to companies like Arch?

太好了，謝謝。我在兩種情況下都有同樣的疑問。我認為尼古拉斯開始發表評論，談論經紀人傾向於與少數幾家大型保險公司合作。我想知道您是否可以談談這對 Arch 等公司而言在銷售和盈利能力方面的影響？

Yes, I don't think the two are necessarily linked. I think in my view, the best place to talk about this is probably the London market. In the London market, the brokers because the business come to London, the entree brokers control of access to the business we write.

是的，我不認為這兩者有必然關聯。我認為，在我看來，談論這個問題的最佳地點可能是倫敦市場。在倫敦市場，經紀人因為業務來到倫敦，入口經紀人控制我們寫的業務的訪問。

So I think it's more of a supporting them where they need you to be supported and playing the role that you have to play where you can align with their own strategy. And I think if you think of the way they're organizing the market, we're having their own facilities, then they need leaders, we're not leaders, nothing works.

所以我認為這更多的是在他們需要你支持的地方支持他們，並發揮你必須扮演的角色，以符合他們自己的策略。我認為，如果你想想他們組織市場的方式，我們有自己的設施，那麼他們需要領導者，而我們不是領導者，什麼都行不通。

Then they have some follow facilities and then ultimately, they have the open market that remains. I think you need to find place, you can't service just one. I think if you service just one, you'd be -- so you have to be able to figure out your distribution strategy is a key component of our future success. That's what I'm saying.

然後他們有一些後續設施，最終，他們擁有剩餘的開放市場。我認為你需要找個地方，你不能只服務一個地方。我認為，如果你只為一家公司提供服務，那麼你必須能夠弄清楚你的分銷策略是我們未來成功的關鍵因素。這就是我要說的。

And I think we spent a ton of time thinking out how do we align better and where do we bring value to our distributors. And it varies for the bigger distributors it maybe one thing for a smaller distributor, mid-market distributor where they rely better on the expertise of art, it may be something different.

我認為我們花了大量時間思考如何更好地協調以及我們如何為分銷商帶來價值。對於較大的經銷商來說，情況有所不同；對於較小的經銷商、中型市場分銷商來說，情況可能有所不同，因為他們更依賴藝術專業知識。

So I think you have to really to be successful going forward. You really have to question the value you bring in the transaction. You can't just underwrite business. So the two components is that you have to do the underwriting cycle thoughtfully.

所以我認為你必須真正地取得成功。你確實必須質疑你在交易中帶來的價值。你不能只是承保業務。因此，這兩個組成部分就是您必須認真考慮承保週期。

And but you have also to figure out what your place in the food chain and what value you bring. So that's really the -- so we've done a lot of work, and we're still thinking of this in a way that's less -- it's less about Arch, but it's less about ultimately the customers.

但你也必須弄清楚你在食物鏈中的位置以及你帶來什麼價值。所以這確實是——我們已經做了很多工作，但我們仍然在以一種不那麼——不那麼關注 Arch，但最終也不那麼關注客戶的方式來思考這個問題。

Without customers, we don't exist. So we need to provide value to the ultimate customers. That's our -- and that dynamic is maybe is playing out in London, it's playing out in North America. You can't just be sitting at your box in Lloyd and waiting for the business to come to you and underwrite, because you're not even sure that the business you're going to see is the one you want to write. That's the issue.

沒有客戶，我們就不存在。所以我們需要為最終客戶提供價值。這就是我們的──這種動態也許正在倫敦上演，也正在北美上演。你不能只是坐在勞合社的包廂裡，等待業務來找你並承保，因為你甚至不確定你將要看到的業務是否是你想要承保的業務。這就是問題所在。

I think if there is five people in front of you that are picking up the good business, now you're picking up from a part that by definition, is not so good. So I think you have to work hard and size matters and relationship matters and being able you can see the business you're really targeting. And that's where (inaudible) strategy matter.

我認為，如果你面前有五個人正在接手好生意，那麼現在你接手的生意顯然就沒那麼好了。所以我認為你必須努力工作，規模很重要，關係很重要，並且能夠看到你真正針對的業務。這就是（聽不清楚）戰略重要的地方。

Okay, perfect. That's very helpful. The second, on reinsurance, when you have cedents retaining more business, how do you deal with the risk of adverse selection when the cedent kind of decide a more educated season because of the experience decides what they're going to keep and what they're going to reinsure?

好的，完美。這非常有幫助。第二，關於再保險，當出質人保留更多業務時，當出質人根據經驗決定要保留什麼以及要再保險什麼時，您如何處理逆向選擇的風險？

So a lot of the business is about adverse selection. The question is I have insight into the business to understand why people are buying and does it make sense? And do you -- can you -- they have a need you have to -- we spend a lot of time and creating insight to figure out their needs that we are willing to insure or reinsure and there are things that we are unwilling to do because it's this -- I said before, I think we're looking for risk where we have upside that outweigh the downside. So that's the one way to look at it.

因此，許多業務都涉及逆向選擇。問題是我對業務有深入的了解，能夠理解人們為什麼購買以及購買是否合理？而且，您是否可以——他們有需求，您必須——我們花費大量時間並進行洞察，以弄清他們的需求，我們願意承保或再承保，但有些事情我們不願意做，因為——我之前說過，我認為我們正在尋找上行空間大於下行空間的風險。這是看待這個問題的一種方式。

When you have only downside usually don't want to do those risks. And so I think that there is always that risk. On the selection, it's a very dynamic market. And (inaudible) selection is everywhere. So I think you have to factor that in, into your risk selection in my view.

當你只有不利因素時，通常不想承擔這些風險。所以我認為總是存在這種風險。從選擇來看，這是一個非常活躍的市場。並且（聽不清楚）選擇無所不在。因此，我認為你必須將這一點考慮進你的風險選擇中。

So I think it's -- yes, you can't -- if you're on the right risk, a lot of what we get told as an underwriter is more like a fairytale. So even if you like fairytale, you're not going to end up in a very successful underwriting shop.

所以我認為——是的，你不能——如果你承擔了正確的風險，那麼作為承銷商，我們被告知的很多事情更像是一個童話故事。因此，即使你喜歡童話，你也不會最終進入一家非常成功的核保公司。

So I think you have to. That's part of the job. The job is to have the insight to be able to ask the right questions and get to the answer and build a relationship with the clients where they come to you to for legitimate concern that they have and where you can really provide value by either ensuring or insuring them.

所以我認為你必須這麼做。這是工作的一部分。這項工作是要有洞察力，能夠提出正確的問題並得到答案，並與客戶建立關係，當客戶來找你表達他們合理的擔憂時，你可以透過確保或為他們提供保險來真正提供價值。

Okay, understood. Thank you so much.

好的，明白了。太感謝了。

But you can't -- we have both sides of the house. I mean on the insurance side, those people that we try to tell our guys to do the right thing. If the risk is good, try to retain it to have conviction about -- so if you for a while, you're not sure, so you buy reinsurance on a quota share basis.

但你不能──我們擁有房子的兩邊。我的意思是，在保險方面，我們試著告訴我們的人做正確的事。如果風險是好的，請嘗試保留它以確信——因此，如果您有一段時間不確定，那麼您可以按配額份額購買再保險。

And ultimately, you over time, you build conviction that your underwriting guidelines work, your pricing is okay. At that point, you don't need the insurance. So you retain net. And that there's nothing wrong about that. My view is that we should -- that's a role the reinsurance play.

最終，隨著時間的推移，您會確信您的承保準則是有效的，您的定價是可以接受的。那時，您就不需要保險了。所以你保留網路。這沒有什麼錯。我的觀點是我們應該——這是再保險所扮演的角色。

Thank you. I'm not showing any further questions. Would you like to proceed with any further remarks?

謝謝。我沒有提出任何其他問題。您是否想繼續發表任何評論？

No. I think -- thank you. And I think another I think good quarter for us in a little more difficult or more competitive market, but I think we remain bullish about I just said in my remarks to stand out. So I think we'll see you guys in the next quarter.

不。我想——謝謝。我認為，在更加困難或競爭更加激烈的市場中，我們將迎來一個好季度，但我認為我們仍然對脫穎而出持樂觀態度，我剛才在發言中也提到了這一點。所以我想我們會在下個季度見到你們。

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating in today's conference. This concludes the program. You may all disconnect.

女士們、先生們，感謝大家參加今天的會議。本節目到此結束。你們都可以斷開連線。