Arch Capital Group Ltd (ACGLN) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the second-quarter 2025 Arch Capital earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded.

女士們、先生們，大家好，歡迎參加 Arch Capital 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）提醒一下，本次電話會議正在錄音。

Before the company gets started with its update, management wants to first remind everyone that certain statements in yesterday's press release and discussed on this call may constitute forward-looking statements under the federal securities laws. These statements are based upon management's current assessments and assumptions and are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties. Consequently, actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied. For more information on the risks and other factors that may affect future performance, investors should review periodic reports that are filed by the company with the SEC from time to time, including our annual report on Form 10-K for the 2024 fiscal year.

在公司開始更新之前，管理階層首先要提醒大家，昨天的新聞稿中以及本次電話會議中討論的某些聲明可能構成聯邦證券法下的前瞻性聲明。這些聲明是基於管理層目前的評估和假設，並受到許多風險和不確定性的影響。因此，實際結果可能與明示或暗示的結果有重大差異。有關可能影響未來業績的風險和其他因素的更多信息，投資者應查看公司不時向美國證券交易委員會提交的定期報告，包括我們 2024 財年的 10-K 表格年度報告。

Additionally, certain statements contained in the call that are not based on historical facts are forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. The company intends the forward-looking statements in the call to be subject to the Safe Harbor created thereby. Management also will make reference to certain non-GAAP measures of financial performance. The reconciliations to GAAP for each non-GAAP financial measure can be found in the company's current report on Form 8-K furnished to the SEC yesterday, which contains the company's earnings press release and is available on the company's website at www.archgroup.com and on the SEC's website at www.sec.gov.

此外，電話會議中包含的某些並非基於歷史事實的陳述屬於《1995 年私人證券訴訟改革法案》所定義的前瞻性陳述。該公司希望電話會議中的前瞻性陳述能夠遵循由此創建的安全港原則。管理階層也會參考某些非公認會計準則的財務績效指標。每項非 GAAP 財務指標與 GAAP 的對帳情況均可在公司昨日向美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 提交的 8-K 表最新報告中找到，該報告包含公司的盈利新聞稿，可在公司網站 www.archgroup.com 和美國證券交易委員會網站 www.sec.gov 上查閱。

I would now like to introduce your host for today's conference call, Mr. Nicolas Papadopoulo, and Mr. Francois Morin.

現在，我想介紹今天電話會議的主持人 Nicolas Papadopoulo 先生和 Francois Morin 先生。

Good morning, and welcome to Arch's second quarter earnings call. We are pleased to report another solid quarter with after-tax operating income of $979 million, resulting in an operating earnings per share of $2.58. On a year-to-date basis, we have grown book value per share by 11.4%, a strong outcome that reflects our focus on execution and long-term value creation for our shareholders.

早上好，歡迎參加 Arch 第二季財報電話會議。我們欣然宣布，本季業績再創佳績，稅後營業利潤達9.79億美元，每股營業收益達2.58美元。年初至今，每股帳面價值成長11.4%，這一強勁業績體現了我們對執行力的重視以及為股東創造長期價值的決心。

We achieved these results by staying true to our core principle of cycle management, where we actively grow our writings in lines of business that offer attractive returns while selectively reducing exposure in areas where risk-adjusted returns fall short of our targets. This disciplined underwriting approach, paired with proactive capital management, positions us to consistently generate superior returns across market cycles.

我們透過堅持週期管理的核心原則取得了這些成果，即我們積極增加在提供有吸引力的回報的業務領域的業務，同時有選擇地減少在風險調整後的回報未達到我們目標的領域的風險敞口。這種嚴謹的承保方式，加上積極主動的資本管理，使我們能夠在整個市場週期中持續獲得優異的回報。

P&C market conditions were largely consistent with the first quarter. Some sectors are seeing increased price competition, while others continue to achieve rate improvements. In the current environment, much of our growth is because of the strengths of our relationships with distribution partners and insureds. This not only reflects Arch's increased scale, but also the increased relevance of our platform -- one built on a broad and flexible set of capabilities. Our underwriting expertise, supported by our advanced data and analytics capabilities, enables us to deliver valuable insights and innovative solutions that help our customers achieve their ambitions. Ultimately, the strength of our relationships, our commitment to consistently deliver meaningful customer value, and our ability to respond quickly to changing market conditions are significant differentiators in today's environment.

財產險和意外險市場狀況與第一季基本一致。有些行業的價格競爭日益激烈，而其他行業的價格則持續改善。在當前環境下，我們的成長很大程度上得益於我們與分銷合作夥伴和被保險人之間的牢固關係。這不僅反映了 Arch 規模的擴大，也反映了我們平台相關性的提高——該平台建立在廣泛而靈活的功能之上。我們的核保專業知識，加上我們先進的數據和分析能力，使我們能夠提供寶貴的見解和創新的解決方案，幫助我們的客戶實現他們的目標。最終，我們關係的強度、我們始終如一地提供有意義的客戶價值的承諾以及我們對不斷變化的市場條件做出快速反應的能力是當今環境中的重要差異化因素。

As we've discussed on previous calls, there isn't one underwriting cycle but many. This principle was reinforced last month when Paul Ingrey, Arch's former Chairman and one of its founders, spoke to a gathering of our top leaders. It was a unique opportunity for our newer team members to hear directly from someone whose vision continue to influence our culture and operations.

正如我們在之前的電話會議中討論過的，承保週期不止一個，而是有很多個。上個月，Arch 前董事長兼創始人之一 Paul Ingrey 在我們高層領導人的聚會上發表講話時，強調了這一原則。對於我們團隊的新成員來說，這是一個獨特的機會，可以直接聽取那些其願景繼續影響我們的文化和營運的人的意見。

In addition to sharing stories from Arch's early days, Paul reminded us of the enduring value of a diversified platform -- a core part of Arch's original vision. He explained that the insurance market is comprised of a 1,000 points of light, each representing a potential opportunity. While the intensity and location of some of those light may have shifted in today's underwriting environment, many continue to shine. Our role, as always, is to find those with the greatest potential. Our message is this: the P&C industry still presents meaningful opportunities for disciplined underwriters to generate attractive risk-adjusted return on capital.

除了分享 Arch 早期的故事之外，保羅還提醒我們多元化平台的持久價值——這是 Arch 最初願景的核心部分。他解釋說，保險市場由 1,000 個光點組成，每個光點都代表一個潛在的機會。儘管在當今的承保環境中，一些光芒的強度和位置可能已經發生了變化，但許多光芒依然閃耀。我們的職責一如既往，就是尋找那些最具潛力的人。我們的資訊是：財產和意外保險業仍然為自律的承保人提供了產生有吸引力的風險調整後資本回報的重要機會。

Now, I will briefly walk through segment performance, starting with our Property and Casualty Insurance Group. Underwriting income for the quarter was $129 million, and net premium returns surpassed $2 billion -- up 30.7% from the second quarter of 2024. This growth was largely driven by acquisition of the US middle market and entertainment businesses, which contributed $451 million in net premium written. Organic growth outside the acquisition was modest. We remain focused on integrating the new unit, with client retention and portfolio optimization progressing in line with expectations. Growing our presence in the small and midsized market is central to our strategy. Elsewhere in North America, rate increases broadly offset loss trends. We saw selective growth in casualty lines -- particularly in Alternative Markets, E&S Casualty, and Large Account Casualty -- where pricing continued to outpace loss trends. However, competitive pressure persists in E&S property, excess D&O, and Cyber. While pricing in excess D&O and Cyber appears to be stabilizing, we are maintaining a cautious stance and prioritizing margin over volume in these lines. Internationally, our Lloyd's and London market business are experiencing increased, but rational, competition. Our long-term investment in establishing a leadership position at Lloyd's continues to yield strong results -- reflected in favorable signings and our ability to attract top tier underwriting talent.

現在，我將簡要介紹各部門的表現，首先從我們的財產和意外保險集團開始。本季承保收入為 1.29 億美元，淨保費回報超過 20 億美元，較 2024 年第二季成長 30.7%。這一成長主要得益於對美國中端市場和娛樂業務的收購，這兩項業務貢獻了 4.51 億美元的淨保費收入。收購之外的有機成長較為溫和。我們將繼續專注於整合新部門，客戶保留和投資組合優化將如預期進行。擴大我們在中小型市場的影響力是我們策略的核心。在北美其他地區，利率上調基本上抵消了虧損趨勢。我們看到意外險業務出現選擇性成長——特別是在另類市場、環境與社會意外險和大額帳戶意外險——這些險種的定價持續超過損失趨勢。然而，在 E&S 財產、超額 D&O 和網絡方面，競爭壓力仍然存在。儘管超額 D&O 和 Cyber 的定價似乎正在穩定下來，但我們仍保持謹慎的立場，優先考慮這些產品的利潤而不是銷售量。在國際上，我們的勞合社和倫敦市場業務正在經歷日益激烈但合理的競爭。我們為在勞合社建立領導地位而進行的長期投資繼續產生強勁的成果——這體現在有利的簽約和我們吸引頂級承保人才的能力上。

The Reinsurance segment delivered strong second quarter results, generating $451 million in underwriting income and on over $2 billion in net premium written. The underlying business is attractive, with gross written premium increasing 8.7% compared to the second quarter of 2024.

再保險部門第二季業績強勁，承保收入達 4.51 億美元，淨保費收入超過 20 億美元。基礎業務具有吸引力，毛承保保費與 2024 年第二季度相比增長了 8.7%。

We grew our Casualty reinsurance premium year-over-year, supported by selective new business and rate improvements. We also expanded our property catastrophe writings, particularly in Florida where we identified attractive risk-adjusted returns and responded to increased client demand for additional limits. Specialty lines remained a strategic focus, and our teams found several new opportunities this quarter. That said, our property portfolio, other than cat excess of loss contracted, as cedants retained more risk and margins on certain portions of the portfolio fell below our targets. We are actively managing our exposure in these areas to maintain underwriting discipline and long-term profitability. We were generally pleased with the state of the midyear catastrophe excess of loss renewals. Pricing was slightly down, but terms and conditions were stable, with primary insurers maintaining high retention. Overall, catastrophe excess of loss margin remain attractive. The broader reinsurance market continues to exhibit discipline. We are growing selectively, focusing on areas where margins are attractive. We are committed to pursuing the brightest opportunities -- those offering the strongest risk-adjusted return.

在選擇性新業務和費率提高的支援下，我們的意外險再保險保費年增。我們還擴大了財產巨災保險業務，特別是在佛羅裡達州，我們在那裡發現了有吸引力的風險調整回報，並回應了客戶對額外限額日益增長的需求。專業產品線仍然是我們的策略重點，我們的團隊在本季發現了幾個新的機會。話雖如此，我們的房地產投資組合（除巨災超額損失外）有所萎縮，因為分出人保留了更多風險，並且投資組合某些部分的利潤率低於我們的目標。我們正在積極管理這些領域的風險敞口，以保持承保紀律和長期盈利能力。整體而言，我們對年中巨災超額損失續保的狀況感到滿意。價格略有下降，但條款和條件穩定，主要保險公司保持較高的保留率。整體而言，巨災超額損失保證金仍具有吸引力。更廣泛的再保險市場繼續表現出紀律性。我們正在進行選擇性成長，重點關注利潤豐厚的領域。我們致力於追求最光明的機會－那些提供最高風險調整報酬的機會。

Our Mortgage segment delivered $238 million of underwriting income in the second quarter. Mortgage originations remained relatively low, reflecting the impact of higher mortgage rates on affordability. Still, the strength of our global in-force portfolio and high persistency allows the Mortgage group to provide steady profitability and valuable earnings diversification, even with lower volumes of new insurance written in recent years.

我們的抵押貸款部門在第二季度實現了 2.38 億美元的承銷收入。抵押貸款發放量仍然相對較低，反映了較高的抵押貸款利率對負擔能力的影響。儘管如此，儘管近年來新簽保單量較低，但我們全球有效保單組合的實力和高持續性使得抵押貸款集團能夠提供穩定的盈利能力和寶貴的收益多元化。

Despite ongoing economic uncertainty and low origination activity, we remain confident in the quality and durability of our in-force portfolio, which is the core driver of our mortgage earnings. Investable assets grew 4.4% in the second quarter, benefiting from our strong premium growth and cash flow. Net investment income was 7% from the first quarter to $405 million, with overall yields remaining elevated.

儘管經濟不確定性持續存在且發起活動低迷，我們仍然對現有投資組合的品質和持久性充滿信心，這是我們抵押貸款收益的核心驅動力。受益於我們強勁的保費成長和現金流，可投資資產在第二季成長了 4.4%。淨投資收益較第一季成長 7%，達到 4.05 億美元，整體收益率仍較高。

Arch's ability to dynamically adapt to multiple underwriting cycle continues to set us apart. This is a function of both our founding principal and a culture that prioritizes and rewards underwriting profit over premium volume. Even in a competitive environment, our global, diversified platform offers many points of light for our underwriting teams to pursue. For a company, we have a strong underwriting culture like Arch, this remains a market where we can deliver differentiated performance and maximize long-term shareholder returns.

Arch 能夠動態適應多個承保週期，這讓我們繼續脫穎而出。這是我們的創始原則和文化的功能，優先考慮和獎勵承保利潤而不是保費量。即使在競爭激烈的環境中，我們全球多元化的平台也為我們的核保團隊提供了許多值得追求的亮點。對於像 Arch 這樣擁有強大核保文化的公司來說，這仍然是一個我們可以提供差異化績效並最大化長期股東回報的市場。

I will now turn the call over to Francois, who will provide more details on the financial results before we open the line for your questions.

現在我將把電話轉給弗朗索瓦，在我們開始回答您的問題之前，他將提供有關財務結果的更多詳細資訊。

Thank you, Nicholas. And good morning to all. Last night, we reported our second quarter results with after-tax operating income of $2.58 per share, resulting in an annualized operating return on average common equity of 18.2%. These operating earnings, combined with a high level of realized gains, solid contributions from our equity method investments, and a noticeable appreciation in our fixed maturities investment portfolio, resulted in our book value per share growing by 7.3% in the quarter.

謝謝你，尼古拉斯。大家早安。昨晚，我們報告了第二季度業績，稅後營業收入為每股 2.58 美元，年化平均普通股營業回報率為 18.2%。這些營業收益，加上高水準的已實現收益、權益法投資的穩健貢獻以及固定期限投資組合的顯著升值，導致我們每股帳面價值在本季度增長了 7.3%。

Similar to last quarter, our three business segments delivered excellent underlying results, with an overall ex-cat accident year combined ratio of 80.9%, down 10 basis points from last quarter. Our underwriting income included $139 million of favorable prior year development on a pre-tax basis in the second quarter, or 3.2 points on the overall combined ratio. We recognized favorable development across all three of our segments, and in many of our lines of business. The most significant improvements were, once again, most seen in short tail lines in our Reinsurance segment and in Mortgage due to strong cure activity.

與上一季類似，我們的三個業務部門都取得了出色的基本業績，除重大事故外，年度綜合成本率為 80.9%，較上一季下降了 10 個基點。我們的核保收入包括第二季稅前 1.39 億美元的有利上年發展，或整體綜合成本率 3.2 個百分點。我們認識到我們的三個部門以及許多業務線都取得了良好的發展。由於強勁的治癒活動，最顯著的改善再次出現在再保險部門和抵押貸款部門的短尾線。

Current year catastrophe losses, at $154 million net of reinsurance and restatement premiums, were slightly below last year's level for the same quarter, and were primarily the result of severe convective storms in the US. This is the fourth -- and last -- quarter where we are separately reporting the contribution of the MidCorp and Entertainment unit to the Insurance segment financial results.

今年巨災損失為 1.54 億美元（扣除再保險和重述保費），略低於去年同期的水平，主要原因是美國發生嚴重對流風暴。這是我們第四個季度，也是最後一個季度，分別報告 MidCorp 和娛樂部門對保險部門財務表現的貢獻。

For the quarter, net premiums written for the acquired businesses were $451 million, contributing 28.9 points to the reported year-over-year premium growth for the segment, and generally consistent with last quarter. The strong premium volume this quarter reflects the seasonality of the business, with the second quarter generally having the most significant renewal activity. We are now on track to write slightly more than $1.5 billion of annualized premium for the first year of owning this business, which is slightly higher than the forecast at the time of the acquisition.

本季度，收購業務的淨保費為 4.51 億美元，為該部門報告的同比保費增長貢獻了 28.9 個百分點，與上一季基本持平。本季強勁的保費收入反映了業務的季節性，第二季通常是續保活動最活躍的季度。目前，我們預計在擁有該業務的第一年實現略高於 15 億美元的年度保費收入，略高於收購時的預測。

The inclusion of the acquired business in the segment's results increased the current accident year ex cat combined ratio by 40 basis points. This can be further broken down to include: the other operating expense ratio that was lower by 40 basis points; the current [quarter] (corrected by speaker after the call) acquisition expense ratio, that was lowered by 20 basis points due to the write-off of deferred acquisition costs for the acquired business at closing under purchase GAAP -- as expected, this benefit has become less significant as policies written before the acquisition date have rolled off -- and the accident year ex cat loss ratio that was 100 basis points higher, reflecting the underlying results of the acquired business.

將收購的業務納入該部門的業績後，本事故年度的除巨災因素外綜合成本率提高了 40 個基點。這可以進一步細分為：其他營運費用率降低了 40 個基點；當前 [季度]（電話會議後發言人進行了更正）收購費用率降低了 20 個基點，原因是根據收購 GAAP 在交易結束時註銷了被收購業務的遞延收購成本——正如預期的那樣，隨著收購日期之前簽訂的政策的取消，這一收益變得不那麼重要了——事故收益

The Reinsurance segment produced its best quarter ever in terms of pre-tax underwriting income, reflecting the underlying profitability of the business written over the last few quarters and the absence of significant catastrophe activity. Of note, the 5.8% growth in net premium written in the quarter was muted due to the timing of certain ceded premium accruals. The effect of this change in timing was to reduce our net premiums written in the property catastrophe line of business by approximately $94 million this quarter. We expect to record an equivalent offsetting benefit in net premiums written next quarter. Overall, this item should not have a significant impact on net premiums earned.

再保險部門在稅前承保收入方面取得了有史以來最好的一個季度，反映了過去幾個季度業務的潛在盈利能力以及沒有發生重大災難活動。值得注意的是，本季淨保費成長 5.8%，但由於某些轉讓保費應計的時間安排而受到抑制。這一時間變化導致我們本季財產巨災業務的淨保費收入減少約 9,400 萬美元。我們預計下個季度的淨保費收入將記錄等量的抵銷收益。整體而言，此項不會對淨保費收入產生重大影響。

Once again, our Mortgage segment delivered another very strong quarter with underwriting income of $238 million. We note that these results reflect the completion of tender offers for two Bellemeade Re securities at a onetime cost of $15 million. We expect that this expense will be recouped through lower levels of ceded premium over time, mostly through the end of 2027, and will ultimately result in a net economic benefit to us. The delinquency rate for our US MI business increased slightly to a very low 1.93%, as new notices of default were more than offset by strong cure activity.

我們的抵押貸款部門再次取得了非常強勁的業績，承銷收入達到 2.38 億美元。我們注意到，這些結果反映了對兩支 Bellemeade Re 證券的要約收購的完成，一次性成本為 1500 萬美元。我們預計，隨著時間的推移，這筆費用將透過降低保費水準來收回，大部分時間到 2027 年底，並最終為我們帶來淨經濟效益。我們的美國 MI 業務的拖欠率略有上升，降至非常低的 1.93%，因為新的違約通知被強勁的補救活動所抵消。

On the investment front, we earned a combined $567 million from net investment income and income from funds accounted using the equity method, for $1.50 per share, pre-tax. Net investment income in the next few quarters should grow in line with the size of our investment portfolio, as our portfolio book yield and new money yields have converged in the last few quarters.

在投資方面，我們從淨投資收益和權益法核算的基金收益中獲得了總計 5.67 億美元的收益，稅前每股收益為 1.50 美元。由於我們的投資組合帳面收益率和新資金收益率在過去幾季已經趨於一致，未來幾季的淨投資收益應該會隨著我們的投資組合規模而增長。

Income from operating affiliates was comparable to the amount in the same quarter last year, with contributions from both Coface and Somers Re. Cash flow from operations remained strong at approximately $1.1 billion for the quarter. As of January 1, our peak zone natural cat PML on a single event one in 250-year return level on a net basis, increased slightly to $1.9 billion and now stands at 8.6% of tangible shareholders' equity. Our PML remains well below our internal limits.

來自經營附屬公司的收入與去年同期相當，其中科法斯 (Coface) 和 Somers Re 均有貢獻。本季經營現金流保持強勁，約 11 億美元。截至 1 月 1 日，我們高峰區域自然巨災 PML 在 250 年一次單一事件上的淨回報水準略有增加，達到 19 億美元，目前佔有形股東權益的 8.6%。我們的 PML 仍遠低於我們的內部限制。

On the capital management front, we repurchased $161 million of our shares in the month of July in addition to the $360 million worth of common shares repurchased this year through the end of the second quarter.

在資本管理方面，除了今年截至第二季末回購的價值 3.6 億美元的普通股外，我們還在 7 月回購了價值 1.61 億美元的股票。

In closing, our strong balance sheet affirmed by a recent credit rating upgrade, and our diversified platform positions us well to deliver superior results in the periods ahead.

最後，我們強勁的資產負債表得到了最近信用評級升級的證實，而我們多元化的平台使我們在未來一段時間內能夠取得優異的業績。

With these introductory comments, we are now prepared to take your questions. Jenny?

有了這些介紹性的評論，我們現在準備好回答您的問題。珍妮？

(Operator Instructions) Elyse Greenspan, Wells Fargo.

（操作員指示）Elyse Greenspan，富國銀行。

My first question is just on the insurance segment. If we back out MCE, right, growth was around 2% in the quarter. It feels like based on commentary; the market was stable. So maybe that's about where you guys are running in the short term. But I know, obviously, there's a lot of business lines that triangulate into that number. So we're just hoping to get kind of a forward view just on premium growth within the insurance segment, unlike the ex MCE piece.

我的第一個問題是關於保險領域的。如果我們退出 MCE，那麼本季的成長率約為 2%。根據評論，感覺市場是穩定的。這可能就是你們短期內的行動方向。但我知道，顯然有很多業務線都會影響這個數字。因此，我們只是希望對保險領域的保費成長有一種前瞻性的看法，這與 MCE 部分不同。

So the story here is that, again, we -- as I described in my opening remarks, we are pivoting where the opportunities are and kind of ending out where we think the business is attractive. So this quarter, I think we like the casualty line, so I think we grew in the casualty line. And I think we grew in the International business. And we have a big book of professional lines.

所以這裡的故事是，正如我在開場白中所描述的那樣，我們正轉向機會所在的地方，並最終在我們認為業務有吸引力的地方結束。因此本季度，我認為我們喜歡傷亡險線，所以我認為我們的傷亡險線有所增長。我認為我們的國際業務有所成長。我們還有一本厚厚的專業台詞集。

So as those market conditions were more competitive and more difficult to trade that had a negative headwind on the premium for the quarter. But the good news there is that it looks like the rate decreases on both excess D&O and cyber are leveling off. So I think we -- as we look to the future, I think I don't have a crystal ball, but we think the favorable wind on the casualty should support additional growth, and that's what I can say.

因此，由於市場條件更加競爭激烈、交易更加困難，對本季的溢價產生了負面影響。但好消息是，超額董事責任險和網路責任險的費率下降似乎正在趨於平穩。因此我認為，當我們展望未來時，雖然我沒有水晶球，但我們認為對傷亡的有利影響應該會支持額外的成長，這就是我能說的。

And then my second question was just on capital. It sounds like, right, Francois, capital return, like share repurchase picked up in July. Just kind of looking for current thoughts just around excess capital levels and just willingness, I guess, to lean in to buy back as we go through the third quarter and get into the peak of one season?

我的第二個問題是關於資本的。聽起來，對的，弗朗索瓦，資本回報，例如 7 月的股票回購有所回升。只是想了解一下當前對過剩資本水平的想法，以及在我們進入第三季度並進入一個季度的高峰時是否願意回購？

Sure. Yes. I mean, as you've seen terrific results in the second quarter. So our capital position remains very strong. I think no question that we're still working hard, trying to deploy that capital in the business. That's always our top priority.

當然。是的。我的意思是，正如您在第二季度看到的那樣，取得了出色的成績。因此我們的資本狀況仍然非常強勁。我認為毫無疑問我們仍在努力工作，試圖將資本投入業務。這始終是我們的首要任務。

We still think there's opportunities to do that, but maybe not to the full extent of which the capital generation we've been able to achieve. So no question that capital return is a focus area for us, something we no different now than it's ever been. We look at it on a regular basis with management and the Board for sure.

我們仍然認為有機會做到這一點，但也許還達不到我們所能實現的資本創造的全部程度。因此，毫無疑問，資本回報是我們關注的重點領域，現在與以往沒有什麼不同。我們肯定會定期與管理層和董事會一起審查這個問題。

And question that capital return in the second half of the year, I mean, we think we'll be there, not knowing, again, what opportunities might be in front of us. But we look at both share buybacks and potentially dividend if we need to, those will be very much part of that. And historically, we've kind of slowed down a little bit.

並且質疑下半年的資本回報，我的意思是，我們認為我們會在那裡，但不知道我們面前會有什麼樣的機會。但如果有必要，我們會考慮股票回購和潛在的股息，這些將是其中非常重要的一部分。從歷史上看，我們的速度已經稍微放慢了一點。

During the wind season, I don't think we necessarily -- we're a different company, I'd say, right now. So we're going to keep looking at the opportunities in front of us. But certainly, at current price levels, we find stock to be attractive and would be more than happy to buy back as we move forward.

在風季，我不認為我們一定——我想說，我們現在是一家不同的公司。因此，我們將繼續專注於眼前的機會。但可以肯定的是，在當前價格水平下，我們發現股票很有吸引力，並且非常樂意在未來買回。

And then just my last one, was there any adverse development in the quarter from the UK, Russia aviation ruling? And if it was even small, if you could just let us know the number.

然後我的最後一個問題，本季度英國、俄羅斯航空裁決是否有任何不利發展？如果數字很小，請告訴我們具體數字。

Well, we don't -- I mean, no question that we have some adverse in the sense that, yes, we increased our IBNR for both on the insurance and the reinsurance side. The reality is these -- again, we're not big players in that space, but the claims have all been -- that was basically absorbed within our IBNR through short-tail lines.

嗯，我們沒有——我的意思是，毫無疑問我們在某種意義上有一些不利因素，是的，我們增加了保險和再保險方面的 IBNR。事實是，這些 — — 再次強調，我們並不是該領域的大玩家，但所有索賠基本上都透過短尾險種被我們的 IBNR 吸收了。

So what you're seeing, and we'll disclose more of in our 10-Q is no adverse in total. We still have favorable in total. But yes, we reflected some changes, some new developments in the Ukraine Russia conflict.

因此，您所看到的以及我們將在 10-Q 中披露更多資訊總體上沒有不利影響。整體來說我們還是比較有利的。但是的，我們反映了烏克蘭俄羅斯衝突的一些變化和一些新發展。

Mike Zaremski, BMO.

麥克·扎雷姆斯基，BMO。

On the prepared remarks, you made comments about expanding the prop cat writings, I believe, in Florida, particularly. Just maybe -- just macro levels, I feel like you all have been excellent underwriters and continue to be in prop cat especially.

在準備好的發言中，您談到了擴大道具貓寫作範圍，我相信，特別是在佛羅裡達州。也許——只是宏觀層面，我覺得你們都是優秀的承銷商，並且繼續在 prop cat 領域表現出色。

Would you say that expected ROEs or I don't know if you're willing to kind of put a corridor around them in the 20s, down from the 30s? Or just -- I guess, we get asked a lot about can prop cat reinsurance pricing continue to decline off excellent levels, so like the consensus is yes. But just curious, given the rate of decrease over the past year, how do ROEs kind of look in terms of risk reward.

您是否認為預期 ROE 會下降，或者我不知道您是否願意在 ROE 周圍設置一個區間，從 30 多下降到 20 多？或者只是——我想，我們經常被問到關於自營巨災再保險定價是否會繼續從優秀水平下降的問題，所以共識是肯定的。但只是好奇，考慮到過去一年的下降率，ROE 在風險回報方面看起來如何。

Yes, our belief is that ROEs are still very attractive. And just to qualify, I think the price decrease in my view is not always possible. I think, for instance, in Florida, what we've seen is most of the competition is really on the [higher layer]. And at this renewal, I think like I shared, you move up the attachment point. So there was a need for capacity below the FHCF and -- the size of the FHCF. So I think we -- actually, we are able to write more below and the size because we are able to write across the board.

是的，我們相信 ROE 仍然非常有吸引力。只是為了說明一下，我認為價格下降並不總是可能的。我認為，例如在佛羅裡達州，我們看到的大多數競爭實際上都集中在[更高層]。在這個更新中，我想就像我分享的那樣，你會提升附著點。因此需要低於 FHCF 的容量和 FHCF 的大小。所以我認為我們——實際上，我們可以在下面寫更多內容和大小，因為我們可以全面地寫。

So I think in below the FHCF, I think the price decrease were pretty flat, I think. So I think it's -- I think we -- if you look at where we come from, probably a year ago for the price where we had gone through 100% rate increase. I think we've seen some rate decrease, but the business remain really attractive as we see it.

因此我認為，在 FHCF 以下，價格下降幅度相當穩定。所以我認為——我認為我們——如果你看看我們的起點，大概一年前我們的價格已經上漲了 100%。我認為我們已經看到了一些利率的下降，但正如我們所看到的，這項業務仍然非常有吸引力。

Okay. Got it. That's helpful. Maybe pivoting to the strategy about growing your presence in the SME marketplace. I know you've been doing that strategically, inorganically and organically. But I'm just curious, maybe you'd be willing to elaborate. Is there kind of a specific pocket that's really high up on the wish list, like US retail, traditional main market? Or is it kind of a broad appetite to just go -- continue going kind of down market more broadly?

好的。知道了。這很有幫助。也許可以轉向擴大您在中小企業市場中的影響力的策略。我知道你一直在有策略地、無機地和有機地做這件事。但我只是好奇，也許你願意詳細說明。是否存在一個在願望清單上排名很高的特定市場，例如美國零售業、傳統主要市場？或者這只是一種廣泛的胃口——繼續更廣泛地進入低端市場？

I think for us, I think we really start in the mid-market, as you've seen with the acquisition, we made on the Allianz portfolio in that. That's our sweet spot. We come from the larger accounts. So I think we had strategic aspiration to grow in the upper middle market. I think that's why the acquisition fits strategically well. And I think the strategy take this behind it. I think it's even more compelling today than it was when we did the deal.

我認為對我們來說，我們確實是從中端市場開始的，正如你所看到的，我們對安聯投資組合進行了收購。這是我們的最佳位置。我們來自較大的帳戶。所以我認為我們有在中高端市場發展的戰略意願。我認為這就是為什麼這次收購具有戰略意義。我認為該戰略已經實現了這一點。我認為今天它比我們達成交易時更有吸引力。

Yes. And I'd add to that, that while -- I mean, truly small business is not an immediate action. I mean, down the road, who knows where things go, but it's a different animal. I think the technology, the systems, the distribution. So let us focus on the middle market acquisition. There's a lot we need to do with it, we want to do with it. Things are going well, but I mean it's still early days. So I think there's a lot we can -- a lot of value we can generate from that asset, and that will be the focus for the short term.

是的。我想補充一點，雖然——我的意思是，真正的小企業並不是立即採取行動。我的意思是，以後誰知道事情會如何發展，但那是另一回事。我認為是技術、系統和分佈。因此，讓我們專注於中端市場收購。我們需要用它做很多事情，我們也想用它做很多事情。事情進展順利，但我的意思是現在還為時過早。因此我認為我們可以從該資產中創造很多價值，這將是短期內的重點。

Okay. And maybe I'll sneak one last one in. Maybe just, I'm going to stick, I guess, high level. Mortgage insurance continues just to be a gift that keeps giving. There's -- we're seeing some data points on your data too, but maybe less so, but delinquency rates going a bit higher, but we're still seeing good -- still some levels of HPA.

好的。也許我會偷偷地再做最後一個。也許只是，我想，我會堅持高水準。抵押貸款保險仍然是一份持續給予的禮物。我們也看到了您的數據中的一些數據點，但可能較少，但拖欠率會略高一些，但我們仍然看到良好的 - 仍然有一些 HPA 水平。

I guess just more broadly, has anything changed over the last couple of quarters in terms of the mortgage outlook other than I think we clearly know the top line in the US is going to continue to be negative. But any macro data points that are kind of changing Arch's kind of viewpoint on a medium-term basis?

我想，從更廣泛的角度來看，在過去幾個季度裡，抵押貸款前景有什麼變化嗎？我認為我們清楚地知道，美國的最高收入將繼續為負值。但是，是否有任何宏觀數據點會在中期改變 Arch 的觀點呢？

I wouldn't say anything's changed our viewpoint. Certainly, the housing market data has itself evolved a little bit, which is maybe in line with how we thought about home prices moving forward. For example, we have shied away, or we've been, I think, underweight in certain geographical areas that seem to be currently under pressure in terms of [home] prices, maybe even coming down in some of those places.

我不會說任何事情改變了我們的觀點。當然，房地產市場數據本身也發生了一些變化，這可能與我們對未來房價的看法一致。例如，我們避開了某些地理區域的投資，或者說，我認為，我們減持了這些區域的股票，因為這些區域的房價目前似乎面臨壓力，甚至可能有些地方的房價正在下降。

So that's been part of our, I'd say, approach is to manage our production or manage our new insurance written strategically with having a focus on where we thought home prices would be more sustainable and less risky, I'd say. So that's maybe one data point.

所以我想說，這是我們方法的一部分，即管理我們的生產或管理我們策略性地制定的新保險，並專注於我們認為房價更可持續、風險更低的地方。這可能是一個數據點。

Again, I mean what's happening, what seems to happen, and data seems to be in line with how we approach the business going in. But bottom line is we -- our portfolio has been constructed to be a little bit kind of, again, staying away from the high-risk areas, high risk, not only geographical areas but types of loans. So high LTV, high DTI. So that's been kind of a little bit how we constructed the portfolio, and so far, that seems to be paying off well for us.

再說一次，我的意思是正在發生的事情、似乎發生的事情以及數據似乎與我們開展業務的方式一致。但重點是，我們的投資組合在建造時有點遠離高風險地區，高風險不僅是地理區域，還有貸款類型。因此 LTV 高，DTI 高。這就是我們建立投資組合的方式，到目前為止，這似乎為我們帶來了豐厚的回報。

Cave Montazeri, Deutsche Bank.

蒙塔澤里洞，德意志銀行。

My first question is on the Florida market. Can you give us a bit more color? Is it mainly like the tort reform from two years ago that are feeding through that's making the market a bit more attractive now? Can you like me break down a bit more what's making Florida a lot more attractive now?

我的第一個問題是關於佛羅裡達市場。您能給我們多講一點嗎？這是否主要像兩年前的侵權法改革一樣，使得市場現在更具吸引力？您能否像我一樣進一步解釋一下是什麼讓佛羅裡達州現在更具吸引力？

So I think the tort reform had an impact, I think, on the [assigned] benefit. So we've seen the local companies' attritional loss ratio dropping from the 50 plus to now in the 20. So the nice thing for us, I think we mostly write excess of loss in Florida.

所以我認為侵權法改革對[指定]福利產生了影響。因此，我們看到本地公司的流失率從 50 多下降到現在的 20。所以對我們來說好事是，我認為我們主要在佛羅裡達州寫下超額損失。

The nice thing for us is it affords them the money to buy the reinsurance they need to protect the capital investors have put in those companies. So that. And pay a price that if you buy a limited amount of capacity, you pay one price. But as they are looking to buy closer to the [100 or 200 year return], they have to spend more money. So I think that is what has made the -- and the storm, number of storms that have hit Florida made the market attractive on an excess of loss basis.

對我們來說，好處是它能讓他們有錢購買所需的再保險，以保護投資者在這些公司投入的資本。以便。並且支付的價格是，如果您購買有限數量的容量，則只需支付一個價格。但由於他們希望購買更接近 [100 年或 200 年回報] 的產品，因此他們必須花費更多的錢。所以我認為這就是造成佛羅裡達州遭受風暴襲擊的原因，因為風暴的數量使得市場在超額損失的基礎上具有吸引力。

Helpful. And my follow-up, sticking with reinsurance. The 5.8% growth, you said had a bit of negative impact from the timing point of view of some business that you said it was $94 million negative impact. So does that mean that your premium growth in reinsurance in the quarter would have been double digit this quarter adjusting for that? And if so, what are the pockets of growth that you were involved to just lean on for reinsurance. I mean Florida is one of them. Was there anything else that you want to flag?

很有幫助。我的後續行動是堅持再保險。您說，從時間角度來看，5.8% 的成長對一些業務產生了一些負面影響，您說這是 9,400 萬美元的負面影響。那麼，這是否意味著經過調整後，本季再保險保費成長率將達到兩位數？如果是的話，您所依賴的再保險成長點有哪些？我的意思是佛羅裡達就是其中之一。您還有什麼想指出的嗎？

Yes, You're right. I mean again, it's a timing issue. So it's really something that typically would happen in the Q3, it happened in Q2 in terms of -- see the premium, if you adjust for the $94 million, correct, the net written premium growth for the segment would have been double digits, slightly higher than the gross written premium growth of 8% or so, right? So in my mind, and we bought a little bit less reinsurance in some pockets.

是的，你說得對。我的意思是，這又是一個時間問題。所以這確實是通常會在第三季度發生的事情，就第二季度而言——看看保費，如果調整到 9400 萬美元，那麼該部門的淨承保保費增長率將是兩位數，略高於 8% 左右的毛承保保費增長率，對嗎？所以在我看來，我們在某些方面購買的再保險要少一些。

So I mean that's part of the strategy along the way. So I think those two numbers in terms of written premium are aligned and if you convert more specifically the growth to property cat, you see property cat premium growth call it higher than the segment, right? So 20% range. And that was really the story, I'd say, this quarter. I think we saw some attractive opportunities in the property cat. And the rest, as you know, there's offsetting another property and other specialty, but a good part of the story would have been in prop cat.

所以我的意思是，這是我們整個策略的一部分。因此，我認為就承保保費而言，這兩個數字是一致的，如果你更具體地將增長轉換為財產保險保費增長，你會看到財產保險保費增長高於該細分市場，對嗎？所以範圍是 20%。我想說，這就是本季的真實情況。我認為我們在房地產領域看到了一些有吸引力的機會。其餘部分，如您所知，可以抵消另一種財產和其他特長，但故事的很大一部分應該在道具貓中。

There was more demand in the marketplace. So I think we were able to secure at what we thought was attractive pricing. So it's not only gaining market share. It's mostly being able to go along with the need or support the needs of our major clients as they buy more limits. So that's really a big reason for the growth.

市場需求增加。所以我認為我們能夠確保獲得我們認為有吸引力的價格。因此，它不僅僅是獲得市場份額。它主要是為了滿足我們主要客戶購買更多限額的需求或支持他們的需求。所以這確實是成長的一個重要原因。

Andrew Kligerman, TD Cowen.

安德魯·克里格曼（Andrew Kligerman），TD Cowen。

So in reinsurance, you mentioned that you're growing in casualty. And I'm kind of curious on a lot of the calls that we've heard so far, casualty rates in general, I'll pinpoint them in around 10%. But I'm hearing reinsurance pricing in the casualty area has come down a bit. So I'm wondering if you could give a little more color on what you're seeing on the primary level in various casualty lines and what's happening in reinsurance, particularly for Arch?

因此，在再保險方面，您提到您在意外險方面的業務正在成長。我對我們目前聽到的許多電話感到很好奇，整體傷亡率我認為在 10% 左右。但我聽說意外險領域的再保險價格已經下降。所以我想知道您是否可以更詳細地介紹一下您在各種傷亡險種的主要層面上看到的情況以及再保險領域發生的情況，特別是對於 Arch 來說？

Yes. So the story, the casualty business, I think it's mostly quota share. So I think the story on the primary side and the reinsurance side, as far as the underlying business is very similar. And there, I think we've seen rates, as you said, following the -- exceeding trends. I think it makes it, and we are selectively growing both on the insurance and trying to grow on the reinsurance. I think where you see the difference in market behavior is I think there is a lot of supply on the reinsurance side.

是的。因此，我認為傷亡險業務主要是配額份額。因此，我認為就基礎業務而言，主要業務和再保險業務的情況非常相似。正如您所說，我認為我們已經看到利率遵循了超出趨勢的趨勢。我認為它成功了，我們正在選擇性地發展保險業務，並試圖發展再保險業務。我認為，市場行為的差異在於再保險方面的供應量很大。

And it's difficult for many of the market to expand their writing because there's a lot of the competition is also looking to expand. So that translates in terms and conditions and ceding commissions not changing because if you looked at the experience of those portfolios and based on the prior year development, you would want probably some of those treaties to have lower ceding commissions.

對許多市場而言，擴大其寫作範圍十分困難，因為許多競爭對手也尋求擴大規模。因此，這意味著條款和條件以及轉讓佣金不會改變，因為如果您查看這些投資組合的經驗並根據前一年的發展情況，您可能會希望其中一些條約具有較低的轉讓佣金。

I see. And then just shifting over to MidCorp. Could you give an update on where you are in the process of incorporating data and analytics? Is the performance -- the underwriting performance where you've is it where you expected it? And when do you think MidCorp could kind of pivot to growth?

我懂了。然後轉移到 MidCorp。能否介紹一下資料和分析整合過程的最新進展？承保業績是否符合您的預期？您認為 MidCorp 何時能夠成長？

Yes. So I would say that it's a process. It's a long process. So the integration is actually pretty much on track. I think we've almost totally rolled over the book over to Arch. And so that's almost done.

是的。所以我想說這是一個過程。這是一個漫長的過程。因此，整合其實進展順利。我認為我們幾乎已經將這本書完全移交給了 Arch。這就差不多完成了。

I think I want to remind you that we're still a year away from the full separation with Allianz. So that's hanging there. But we feel good about the rollover of the book. We feel good about the team and the underlying business that we've acquired. I mean -- and again, as I said earlier, the strategic basis, I think, is even more compelling in our views.

我想提醒你，我們距離與安聯完全分開還有一年的時間。所以它就掛在那裡。但我們對於這本書的續訂感到很高興。我們對所收購的團隊和基礎業務感到滿意。我的意思是——正如我之前所說，我認為，戰略基礎在我們看來更具說服力。

And I add to that, middle market book part of the overall acquisition, I think, has -- the pricing environment is good, is attractive. So that's, I'd say, exciting for us. I think that's an opportunity for us as we move forward in a -- gives us another opportunity set to get into and kind of pursue aggressively.

我還要補充一點，我認為，中端市場圖書部分在整體收購中的定價環境良好，很有吸引力。所以我想說，這對我們來說是令人興奮的。我認為這對我們來說是一個機會，因為我們不斷前進——這為我們提供了另一個機會，讓我們可以積極地去追求。

So I'd say we're -- we're excited about that. I mean the platform is there. The distribution is there and the team and then the rate environment, we think will support it. So that's a positive sign.

所以我想說我們——我們對此感到興奮。我的意思是平台就在那裡。我們認為，分銷、團隊和利率環境都會支持它。這是一個正面的信號。

Josh Shanker, Bank of America.

美國銀行的喬希·尚克（Josh Shanker）。

So looking at your commentary about Florida and the general traction of the property cat market, you can't help but look at the underwriting and see how they've declined. There were some one-off transactions in 2Q '24. Can you square how much of the business a year ago was just a few unique things that really boosted the numbers and what a normalized year-over-year growth rate might be for the property cat line and the property other line reinsurance?

因此，看看您對佛羅裡達州和財產險市場總體走勢的評論，您不禁會看看承保情況，看看它們是如何下降的。2024 年第二季有一些一次性交易。您能否明確指出，一年前的業務中有多少只是一些真正推動了數位成長的獨特業務，以及財產巨災險和財產其他險種再保險的正常化同比增長率是多少？

Yes. I think the question is it other property? I just want to make sure I answer the --

是的。我認為問題是其他財產嗎？我只是想確保我回答了--

Both. I mean, the premium volumes are down fairly dramatically from where they were a year ago, but you're leaning in and you like the lines, there's a disconnect there, so I'm trying to bridge that.

兩個都。我的意思是，與一年前相比，保費銷量大幅下降，但你正在努力，你喜歡這些線路，那裡有一個脫節，所以我正在努力彌合這一差距。

On the cat side, I mean, I'll let Francois explain because I think we talked about it earlier. So we can go there. On the other property, I think the comment we'd like to make is that it's really -- you have to understand, it's really a mixed bag of lines of business, so a bit of homeowner, a bit of commercial, it's geographically diverse, US, Canada, international, [they have] fracking treaties.

關於貓方面，我的意思是，我會讓弗朗索瓦解釋，因為我認為我們之前討論過這個問題。所以我們可以去那裡。關於其他資產，我想我們想說的是，你必須明白，這實際上是一個混合的業務線，有一點房主業務，有一點商業業務，它在地理上是多樣化的，有美國、加拿大、國際，[他們有]水力壓裂條約。

So I think the reduction in other property this quarter is really driven by, as I said, in my prepared remarks. I mean some cedents deciding not to buy some revision in certain of the subsegment of the book based on the companies not meeting their targets because, for instance, in E&S, we've seen some drastic rate reduction and also a couple of decisions that our team made and one of them is a big deal not to renew a contract.

因此，我認為本季其他財產的減少實際上是由我在準備好的發言中所說的原因造成的。我的意思是，一些分保人決定不購買書中某些子部分的修訂版，因為這些公司沒有達到他們的目標，例如，在 E&S，我們看到利率大幅下降，而且我們的團隊還做出了一些決定，其中之一就是不再續約。

So I think overall, I think the business remains very attractive, but it has to be managed. So I think this -- and I would contrast the experience of the other property with a similar experience we have in specialty, where there it's also a mixed bag of lines of business. And there, I think headwinds have been cyber, but this quarter, on the international side, we were able to land a few large transactions. And so we are up significantly there.

因此我認為整體而言，這項業務仍然非常有吸引力，但必須加以管理。所以我認為——我會將其他物業的經驗與我們在專業領域的類似經驗進行對比，那裡的業務線也是混合的。我認為網路方面存在一些不利因素，但本季度，在國際方面，我們完成了幾筆大筆交易。因此，我們在這方面取得了顯著進步。

So I think you have to, in reinsurance as we deploy, we do large deals, I think you have to be able to accept the volatility quarter-over-quarter. Some of it going up, you love when it goes up, but sometimes it goes the other way. I think that's what happened in other property this quarter.

因此，我認為，當我們部署再保險時，我們會進行大額交易，我認為您必須能夠接受季度環比的波動。有些是上漲的，當它上漲時你會感到高興，但有時它會朝相反的方向發展。我認為本季其他房地產市場也出現了同樣的情況。

Yes. And just to finish up, again, on property cat, I mean, Josh, once you adjust for this timing issue on the retro prop cat, again, up, call it, 20% year-over-year in the quarter. So that's -- I think that's a reflection, big picture, again, we like both prop cat and property -- other than property cat still very attractive business.

是的。最後，再次強調一下，關於財產險，我的意思是，喬希，一旦你調整了復古道具險的時間問題，那麼本季的財產險同比將再次上漲 20%。所以，我認為這反映了總體情況，我們再次喜歡自營貓和財產——除了財產貓之外，這仍然是非常有吸引力的業務。

But to Nicolas' point, specifically, there's -- the reality is there's some transactions that don't always kind of come back or change in their form or their substance and [the cedents buy less] et cetera. So that's been -- that's truly what happened this quarter. And unfortunately, I can't help you on how the third and fourth quarters are going to look like, but we think there's -- it's still a very attractive market.

但就尼古拉斯的觀點而言，具體來說，現實情況是，有些交易並不總是會再次發生，或者在形式或實質上發生變化，[出讓人購買的較少]等等。這就是本季真正發生的事情。不幸的是，我無法幫助您預測第三季和第四季的情況，但我們認為——這仍然是一個非常有吸引力的市場。

And just in terms of the impact on acquisition cost ratios, did that cause a onetime unusual item that we should feature and think about going forward for normalization?

就對收購成本比率的影響而言，這是否導致了一次性異常項目，我們應該關注並考慮將其正常化？

Not in a big way, acquisition for reinsurance, where you see the variability sometimes is more on the profit commission. So I mean the underlying performance of the book will end up having maybe a more -- a bigger impact. So the fact that these nonrenewal and/or growth, I think, generally speaking, should not have a in and of itself a significant event.

再保險的收購規模並不大，有時你會發現其變動更多的是在利潤佣金上。所以我的意思是，這本書的潛在表現最終可能會產生更大的影響。因此，我認為，一般來說，這些不更新和/或成長的事實本身不應該成為重大事件。

David Motemaden, Evercore ISI.

大衛·莫特馬登，Evercore ISI。

Sticking with the reinsurance segment. The press release had called out some attritional losses, higher attritional losses within the underlying loss ratio there. I'm wondering if you could just elaborate on the nature of those, what lines? Or was it just kind of things swing one way or the other, any given quarter, just sort of normal volatility.

堅持再保險領域。新聞稿指出了一些損耗損失，在基礎損失率中損耗損失較高。我想知道您是否可以詳細說明一下這些的性質，是什麼線？或者這只是某種事物在任何季度中都會出現的正常波動。

Yes. I mean there's no question that when we compare year-over-year last year was maybe one of our best quarters ever. There's literally not much that went on in the, call it, large attritional space. This quarter, we had, I mean, a little bit of the hit with the Air India crash. We had a couple of refineries that exploded. I mean those make the news, and we don't -- we're not here to -- I'm not going to get into all the details of each one of them, but that explains a little bit of the volatility. I mean that's the business work, right?

是的。我的意思是，毫無疑問，當我們與去年同期進行比較時，去年可能是我們有史以來最好的季度之一。實際上，在所謂的大型消耗戰空間中，並沒有發生太多事情。本季度，我們受到了印度航空墜機事件的一點打擊。我們有幾家煉油廠發生爆炸。我的意思是，這些都是新聞，而我們不會——我們不會在這裡——我不會深入討論每一個細節，但這解釋了一點波動性。我的意思是這就是商業工作，對嗎？

So I think the takeaway is that there's nothing alarming. It's part of the normal volatility in the book, again, we go back to our preferred way of looking at it on a trailing 12-month basis to, I mean, at least temper some of these kind of shocks or kind of events that may or may not happen in any given quarter. But that's really the story. So a couple of large claims that just happened to take place this quarter, and we didn't have those a year ago.

所以我認為重點是沒有什麼值得擔憂的。這是書中正常波動的一部分，再次，我們回到我們喜歡的以過去 12 個月為基礎來觀察的方式，我的意思是，至少可以緩和某些可能發生或可能不會在任何特定季度發生的此類衝擊或事件。但事實確實如此。因此，本季恰好發生了幾起大型索賠，而一年前我們還沒有遇到這樣的情況。

Got it. Makes sense. And then also just sticking with the reinsurance business. So I think you called out specialty lines there remaining a strategic focus and that there were some new opportunities that were bound in this quarter. Wondering if your outlook has changed at all in terms of the growth outlook there, how the pipeline is looking? And if you see the sort of growth being sustained?

知道了。有道理。然後也堅持再保險業務。所以我認為您提到專業線路仍然是戰略重點，並且本季度必將出現一些新的機會。想知道您對那裡的成長前景的看法是否有所改變，管道狀況如何？您是否認為這種成長能夠持續下去？

So on specialty, I think the headwinds have been really cyber. We have a decent size book of cyber. So that has been on the pricing pressure. So I think that probably as we had not allocated as much capital to the line than we did probably a year ago. But I think again, it's a mixed bag of lines of business and a lot of those lines of business we would like to grow.

因此，就專業領域而言，我認為最大的阻力來自於網路。我們有一本相當厚的網路書。所以一直有定價壓力。所以我認為，可能是因為我們為該生產線分配的資金沒有像一年前那麼多。但我再次認為，這是一個混合業務線，其中許多業務線我們都希望成長。

So the question is our teams doing the work they need to do to generate those opportunities. So it ended a couple this quarter, I think we want to do more. I mean, in a competitive market, it's sometime hard to find new opportunities, new business you have. So I think a positive on the outlook, but whether we find those opportunities are not -- we can't tell.

所以問題是我們的團隊是否做好他們需要做的工作來創造這些機會。所以本季已經結束了一些事情，我想我們想做更多。我的意思是，在競爭激烈的市場中，有時很難找到新的機會、新的業務。所以我認為前景是正面的，但我們是否能找到這些機會還不能說。

Alex Scott, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的亞歷克斯·斯科特。

I wanted to ask about the insurance segment. And I guess I just wanted to see if you could provide an update on sort of how far you are through some of the MidCorp remediation. And just maybe high-level comments on how we should think about some of the benefits from that, which would help margins and any potential offsets from just thinking through like pricing versus loss cost trend spread and whether there's deterioration?

我想問一下有關保險部分的問題。我想我只是想看看您是否可以提供一些關於 MidCorp 補救措施進展的最新資訊。也許高層評論我們應該如何看待其中的一些好處，這將有助於利潤率和任何潛在的抵消，只需考慮定價與損失成本趨勢擴散以及是否存在惡化？

I think we're going -- as I explained earlier, we're going through the integration. I think we feel good about where we are today. I think the only area I think that I would highlight in terms of performance is probably on the program side. I think we've taken some action, some underwriting action on the program side that should lead to some performance improvements right over the next 12 to 18 months.

我認為我們正在進行中——正如我之前解釋的那樣，我們正在進行整合。我認為我們對目前的狀況感到滿意。我認為在性能方面我唯一要強調的領域可能是程序方面。我認為我們已經採取了一些行動，在專案方面採取了一些承保行動，這應該會在未來 12 到 18 個月內帶來一些性能上的改善。

So that's -- that's the only thing that I think you'll be able to see. But we're doing a lot of work, but that work will be it -- it will take time. But the actions of the program on the next 28 months, you'll be able to see some of the impact of that.

所以——我認為這是你唯一能看到的東西。但我們正在做很多工作，但這些工作將是——需要時間。但在接下來的 28 個月內，您將能夠看到該計劃的行動所帶來的一些影響。

On the loss ratio, on the expense ratio, I'd say the operating expense benefit that we're getting in terms of scale, I think, are sustainable, right? So there's no question that adding, call it, $1.5 billion of premium to the Insurance segment, with not necessarily a corresponding amount of operating expense in terms of IP and management, et cetera. So that's the benefit that we think is here to stay.

就損失率、費用率而言，我認為我們在規模方面獲得的營運費用收益是可持續的，對嗎？因此，毫無疑問，向保險部門增加 15 億美元的保費，但在智慧財產權和管理等方面的營運費用不一定有相應的金額。所以我們認為這種好處將會持續下去。

That all makes sense. A follow-up I have, so on insurance. Are you seeing any changes in just the dynamics with admitted versus E&S and in terms of volume? I mean, if I kind of go back to the, I guess, part of the rationale to buy MidCorp, you guys sort of bought this entity.

這一切都是有道理的。我有一個後續問題，關於保險。您是否看到錄取人數與 E&S 人數以及數量方面的動態變化？我的意思是，如果我回顧一下，我想，收購 MidCorp 的部分理由，你們就收購了這個實體。

And at some point, having more of a presence in admitted may be very helpful if volume and appetite kind of returns to admitted it in a way you could seize that growth opportunity. I mean, is that -- are we closer to that? Are you seeing any of that kind of opportunities to take some of what was going into the E&S market?

在某種程度上，如果數量和胃口恢復到承認狀態，那麼在承認方面擁有更多的存在可能會非常有幫助，這樣你就可以抓住這個成長機會。我的意思是，我們是否更接近這個目標了？您是否看到了任何此類機會，可以將一些產品帶入 E&S 市場？

I think the MidCorp business, I think, is very different from the E&S business. We write today -- E&S business we write today, I think it's very distressed. I think the MidCorp business is mostly property led, low severity. So that business doesn't lend itself to be in the E&S market.

我認為 MidCorp 業務與 E&S 業務非常不同。我們今天寫的——我們今天寫的E&S業務，我覺得很苦惱。我認為 MidCorp 的業務主要是由房地產主導的，嚴重程度較低。因此該業務不適合進入 E&S 市場。

And I think the attractiveness of the MidCorp business is it's difficult to access, it's limited access. I think we had to buy a platform to become a player in the space. So I think we've been trying to be a bigger player in that space for probably the last five or six years, but scale matters and ability to have decent size property limits, the hundreds of millions to solve the problem of the agency network, I think, is key.

我認為 MidCorp 業務的吸引力在於其難以進入，而且進入管道有限。我認為我們必須購買一個平台才能成為該領域的參與者。所以我認為，在過去的五、六年裡，我們一直在努力成為該領域更大的參與者，但規模很重要，而且有能力擁有相當規模的財產限制，數億美元來解決代理網絡的問題，我認為，這是關鍵。

So I think those are two different business and the attractiveness of the MidCorp business is really that it's less subject to cycle, and it's more -- you have a higher value proposition, the thing you do for the reason it more with the agent and the insurer because you provide multiline and there is one agent. So I think it's -- my view it's a different business.

所以我認為這是兩種不同的業務，而 MidCorp 業務的吸引力實際上在於它不太受週期影響，而且 - 您擁有更高的價值主張，您做的事情更多是與代理商和保險公司合作，因為您提供多線服務並且只有一名代理商。所以我認為——在我看來，這是一項不同的業務。

Well, I mean, a little bit related to that, Alex, I think there's still -- we still see business flowing into the E&S market. I mean slightly different again than what would be middle market to us at least. But yes, E&S markets are growing, maybe not as fast as they were in the last few years. There's some maybe moderation in how much of the business is shipping over because., again, as you know, like in middle markets, you need to get rates approved, et cetera, so that takes time, and some of that work has taken place. So admitted carriers are maybe in a slightly better position in some areas to retain that business. But E&S market, there's still big picture doing well.

嗯，我的意思是，與此有點相關，亞歷克斯，我認為仍然 - 我們仍然看到業務流入 E＆S 市場。我的意思是，至少對我們來說，這和中階市場略有不同。但是，E&S 市場確實在成長，但速度可能不如過去幾年那麼快。運輸業務量可能存在一定程度的節制，因為，正如你所知，在中端市場，你需要獲得費率批准等等，所以這需要時間，而其中一些工作已經完成。因此，在某些領域，獲得許可的航空公司可能在保留業務方面處於更有利的地位。但 E&S 市場總體上仍然表現良好。

Yes. I think one comment on the E&S side. I think we see -- as long as we have this issue with social inflation, and I think we see more of the casualty business flowing into the E&S market because you can write it at your price with your flexible set of exclusion that is not always available in the [IP] market. So I think that trend will continue.

是的。我認為 E&S 方面有一條評論。我認為我們看到——只要我們有社會通膨問題，我們就會看到更多的意外險業務流入 E&S 市場，因為你可以根據自己的價格，使用靈活的排除條款來承保，而這在 [IP] 市場上並不總是可用的。所以我認為這種趨勢將會持續下去。

Andrew Andersen, Jefferies.

安德魯·安德森（Andrew Andersen），傑富瑞集團（Jefferies）。

You had mentioned some casualty pricing above loss trend. And I think in the past, your view of loss trend was maybe 2 to 2.5 points above CPI and for excess layers, perhaps even higher. Can you just provide us what your latest view on loss trends?

您曾提到一些高於損失趨勢的傷亡定價。我認為，過去，您對損失趨勢的看法可能比 CPI 高出 2 到 2.5 個百分點，對於超額層級，甚至可能更高。您能否向我們提供您對損失趨勢的最新看法？

Yes. So it would be unchanged, I think, I would say mid-single digit on the primary and in the double digits on the excess. I think that's what we used. And I would say unchanged compared to a year ago.

是的。所以我認為它不會改變，我會說初級部分的個位數中間值和超額部分的兩位數。我認為這就是我們所用的。我想說的是，與一年前相比沒有改變。

And then just on the mortgage segment. I think some mortgage associations are talking about originations picking up in '26. Are you kind of thinking about that as we turn to next year? Or are you still envisioning more of a softer market there?

然後就抵押貸款部分而言。我認為一些抵押貸款協會正在談論 26 年貸款發放的回升。當我們展望明年時，您是否考慮過這個問題？或者您仍然認為那裡的市場會更加疲軟？

Great question. I think as you know, the economic forecasts are going to get updated we still see at least for the next little while mortgage rates kind of staying where they're at. That's certainly -- that's not ideal in the sense of creating housing -- more housing demand. But we'll see -- I mean, into '26, maybe things will change a little bit maybe interest rates come down at that point and mortgage rates follow. But yes, I mean, that's something we look at very carefully. But for the -- I mean, too early to really have a clear view of that at this time.

好問題。我認為，正如你所知，經濟預測將會更新，我們仍然看到至少在接下來的一段時間內抵押貸款利率將保持在原位。從創造住房的意義上來說，這當然不是理想的，因為這會增加住房需求。但我們會看到——我的意思是，到 26 年，情況可能會發生一些變化，也許利率會在那時下降，抵押貸款利率也會隨之下降。但是的，我的意思是，這是我們非常仔細研究的事情。但是對於——我的意思是，現在對此有清晰的認識還為時過早。

Brian Meredith, UBS.

瑞銀的 Brian Meredith。

Just two quick ones here. The first one, just following back up on the MCE program business, can you scale how much business is that? And did it just start non-renewing? I was surprised you said it's another 12 to 18 months before we're going to see the benefits there, given I thought you started to get notifications when you close the deal?

這裡僅簡單介紹兩個。第一個問題，繼續討論 MCE 計劃業務，您能否估算一下該業務的規模？它是不是剛開始不續訂？我很驚訝您說我們還需要 12 到 18 個月才能看到好處，因為我以為您在完成交易時就會開始收到通知？

Yes, I think of the total, it's probably a third, I would say, a third was programs. And that's not why we bought -- I want to be clear, so we bought the portfolio for the other two-thirds. So that we've been able to scrutinize. And as you know, Brian, it takes time. It takes time. You have to wait to the end so I think we -- we've mostly taken underwriting actions and looked at the list of programs, we could non-renew when the time comes and talking to the MGAs to give them enough notice. So I think that's where we are. So I think expect most of the effect to start in 2026.

是的，我認為總數大概是三分之一，我想說，三分之一是程序。這不是我們購買的原因——我想說清楚，所以我們買了另外三分之二的投資組合。這樣我們就可以仔細檢查。正如你所知，布萊恩，這需要時間。這需要時間。你必須等到最後，所以我認為我們——我們主要採取了承保行動，並查看了計劃清單，我們可以在時間到來時不續約，並與 MGAs 交談以給予他們足夠的通知。所以我認為這就是我們現在的狀況。因此我認為大部分影響將在 2026 年開始顯現。

And Brian, on that, just to be clear, on an earned basis, right, so on a written basis, some of the actions were taken late last year, early this year, so that on a written basis, you will start to see some reductions or some changes in the second half of '25. But the full 12 to 18 months on an earned basis is really why has the -- the earnings kind of take a bit longer to come through.

布萊恩，關於這一點，我只是想明確一點，從書面上看，我們在去年年底和今年年初採取了一些行動，因此從書面上看，我們將在 2025 年下半年開始看到一些減少或一些變化。但以盈利為基礎的整整 12 到 18 個月才是真正的原因——盈利需要更長的時間才能實現。

That makes sense. And then the second one, Francois, I'm just curious, could you give maybe an update on where we stand with Bermuda tax credits, not the DTA stuff, but the credits that I know the Bermuda Monetary Authority has been talking about providing?

這很有道理。然後第二個問題，弗朗索瓦，我只是好奇，您能否介紹一下百慕達稅收抵免的最新情況，不是 DTA 內容，而是我所知道的百慕達金融管理局一直在談論提供的抵免？

Unfortunately, no official news. I mean, it's certainly being discussed and worked on. We are hopeful. I mean we were optimistic really that we'll come to a good place with the Bermuda government. It's -- we love Bermuda. I think the Bermuda government -- I know the Bermuda government likes Arch and others being on the island.

遺憾的是，尚無官方消息。我的意思是，這個問題肯定正在被討論和研究。我們充滿希望。我的意思是，我們確實很樂觀，相信我們能與百慕達政府達成良好的合作。是的——我們熱愛百慕達。我認為百慕達政府——我知道百慕達政府喜歡 Arch 和其他人留在島上。

So we're a big part of the community here. And it's -- I mean, it will be -- effectively, it's a negotiation with not only the Bermuda involved parties, but there's the OECD that kind of has a little bit of some oversight there. So we're expecting more development in, call it, the third quarter, kind of the late third quarter and with hopefully some kind of actionable items in the fourth quarter for us. So we'll give you an update next quarter. But right now, I mean, there's nothing official that we know of that we can really share with everybody.

所以我們是這裡社區的重要組成部分。而且，我的意思是，這實際上是一場不僅與百慕達相關方進行的談判，而且還有經合組織在那裡進行一些監督。因此，我們預計在第三季度，也就是第三季末會有更多進展，並希望在第四季度有一些可行的項目。因此我們將在下個季度向您提供最新消息。但目前，我的意思是，我們還沒有了解到任何可以與大家分享的官方消息。

That's helpful. Just quickly too, Francois, on that one. If indeed, these do happen to come through, are they a credit to your taxes? Or do they sit somewhere else in the P&L?

這很有幫助。弗朗索瓦，這個問題也很快解決。如果確實如此，這些確實發生了，它們可以抵免您的稅收嗎？或它們位於損益表中的其他地方？

Well, what's been talked about in big picture is a jobs credit effectively from the Bermuda government, and that would most likely come through as the -- as a reduction to our operating expenses. So the tax rate per se would not be impacted, but it would impact -- I mean, mostly -- well all places where we have operating expenses in Bermuda.

嗯，總體來說，我們所討論的是百慕達政府提供的就業補貼，這很可能會透過減少我們的營運費用來實現。因此，稅率本身不會受到影響，但它會影響——我的意思是，主要是——我們在百慕達有營運費用的所有地方。

So for us, it would be in each of our segments because we have Bermuda-based expenses in each of the three segments. It would also impact a little bit our investment income because we -- our expenses flow through that. We've got our investment professionals here based in Bermuda also would impact our corporate expenses because Nicolas and I and others are based here in Bermuda. So that's where it would hit a couple of different spots on the income statement but would come through again as an offset to operating expenses.

因此對我們來說，它將存在於我們的每個部門中，因為我們在三個部門中都有基於百慕達的支出。這也會對我們的投資收入產生一點影響，因為我們的支出都是透過投資收入來支付。我們在百慕達擁有投資專家，這也會影響我們的公司開支，因為尼古拉斯和我以及其他人都在百慕達。因此，它會在損益表的幾個不同位置出現，但會再次作為營運費用的抵消。

Meyer Shields, KBW.

邁耶希爾茲（Meyer Shields），KBW。

Two quick modeling questions. First, if we add back the 20 basis points of, I guess, acquisition accounting impact for the insurance segments, acquisition expense ratio. Is that a good run rate going forward? Or are the changes in the program business is going to change that as well?

兩個快速建模問題。首先，如果我們加上20個基點，我猜，這是收購會計對保險部門的影響，也就是收購費用率。這是一個良好的未來運作率嗎？或者程序業務的變化也會改變這一點嗎？

I mean I would start there. I mean, again, the benefits or the impact, call it, to the loss ratio as we -- as our underwriting actions on the programs business kind of materialize. We'd like to think that we can get more than that, exactly when that takes place or when that again, shows up in in our underlying performance, it's a little bit -- it's not that clear, right? But we'd like to think that we can do better than that. if not later this year, it will be in 2026.

我的意思是我會從那裡開始。我的意思是，隨著我們對專案業務的承保行動逐漸實現，我們對損失率產生了好處或影響。我們希望我們可以獲得更多，但具體什麼時候發生這種情況，或者什麼時候再次體現在我們的基本表現中，這有點——不是那麼清楚，對吧？但我們認為我們可以做得更好。如果不是今年晚些時候，那也要到 2026 年了。

Okay. All right. That's helpful. And then second, just because MidCorp, I think in the past, you talked about having a significant property exposure and a couple of carriers this earning season have talked about particularly benign weather and low non-cat losses and I was wondering if you signed anything like that in the MidCorp book?

好的。好的。這很有幫助。其次，我認為在過去，您曾談到 MidCorp 有大量的房地產投資，而本財報季有幾家保險公司也談到了特別溫和的天氣和較低的非貓損失，我想知道您是否在 MidCorp 書中籤署了類似的東西？

I think this quarter was a pretty low cat quarter. So I think when we started, we got a little bit unlucky, I think, with some of the hurricanes and then the fire, but I think -- for the first time this quarter, I think we got a low cat quarter. So I agree with sentiment, yes.

我認為本季的貓咪數量相當少。所以我認為，當我們開始的時候，我們有點不走運，遭遇了一些颶風和火災，但我認為——這是本季度第一次，我認為我們遇到了一個低風險季度。是的，我同意你的觀點。

Jimmy Bhullar, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的 Jimmy Bhullar。

So a question just differentiating between pricing movements versus price adequacy. If you look across your business, where is it that you're seeing attractive growth opportunities across reinsurance and insurance versus maybe highlight some of the lines where you might have been active in the past, but do you just feel like the risk/reward is not that compelling.

所以問題只是區分價格變動與價格充分性。如果您縱觀您的業務，您會發現再保險和保險領域有哪些有吸引力的成長機會，或者也許會強調您過去可能活躍的一些業務線，但您是否只是覺得風險/回報並不那麼引人注目。

So I think most of the casualty line, as I said earlier, we see price being greater than the loss trends. So I think that's -- and I think if -- I don't think the entire -- I said this in prior calls, I don't think the entire casualty market is attractive to us. But there is select pockets of that market, especially in the excess and surplus side of the market, the more specialty that both on the insurance and reinsurance, we have a strong appetite to grow.

因此，我認為，正如我之前所說，在大多數傷亡險種中，我們看到的價格高於損失趨勢。所以我認為——我認為如果——我不認為整個——我在之前的電話會議中說過，我認為整個傷亡市場對我們沒有吸引力。但是，該市場中存在一些特定領域，特別是在超額和盈餘市場方面，保險和再保險方面的專業性越強，我們就越有增長的慾望。

And I think on the insurance, our team is very specialized. So I think we have high confidence that they'll be able to find the right opportunity. And I think on the reinsurance, is really backing the right underwriting teams, people that have expertise in driving the liability portion of those risks that are difficult to price. I think we also have, I think, some ability to grow of our retail casualty where we are primary because I think we are in value position -- I mean it's a competitive marketplace. So I think our value proposition resonates well with the big retailers and the mid-market retailers. So I think we like that.

我認為在保險方面，我們的團隊非常專業。因此我認為我們非常有信心他們能夠找到合適的機會。我認為，再保險確實支持了正確的核保團隊，這些團隊擁有專業知識，可以承擔難以定價的風險的責任部分。我認為我們也有能力發展我們主要的零售意外險業務，因為我認為我們處於價值地位——我的意思是這是一個競爭激烈的市場。因此我認為我們的價值主張與大型零售商和中型零售商產生了共鳴。所以我認為我們喜歡這樣。

I think we -- as I said in my prepared remarks, we have built in London, I think, a different franchise and leading capabilities that kind of should -- or should help us continue to grow despite a more competitive marketplace. And I think MidCorp certainly is an area where we think we're still getting double-digit rate increases. And I think as we continue to integrate the platform, I think -- we think we have a decent -- based on the value position that we have, we have the ability to grow, I think.

我認為，正如我在準備好的演講中所說，我們在倫敦建立了不同的特許經營權和領先能力，這應該能夠幫助我們在市場競爭更加激烈的情況下繼續增長。我認為 MidCorp 肯定是我們認為仍將實現兩位數利率成長的領域。我認為，隨著我們繼續整合平台，我認為——我們認為我們擁有不錯的——基於我們所擁有的價值地位，我們有能力成長，我認為。

In terms of the areas that are more challenged, I mentioned them earlier, I think [D&O], cyber, that's not new, E&S. E&S property, I think still a very attractive right level, but I think the competition is fierce. I think. So I think it's areas that we're watching carefully in that.

至於更具挑戰性的領域，我之前提到過，我認為[D&O]、網絡，這並不是什麼新鮮事，還有E&S。我認為 E&S 房地產仍然是一個非常有吸引力的水平，但競爭也很激烈。我認為。所以我認為這是我們正在密切關注的領域。

And then on MI, like, obviously, if rates decline, there would be a pickup in growth. But do you think a decline in rates overall would be a positive for the business or negative given that there's a high likelihood that rates decline a decent amount and persistency suffers and the in-force book, which is producing very high margins might begin to run off a lot faster. So what's sort of an ideal scenario for the MI business from a profitability standpoint? And how do you view declines in interest rates affecting that?

然後就 MI 而言，顯然，如果利率下降，經濟成長就會回升。但是，考慮到利率很有可能大幅下降，持續性受到影響，而產生高利潤的有效帳簿可能會開始更快地減少，您認為利率整體下降對企業來說是利好還是利空？那麼從獲利能力的角度來看，MI 業務的理想情況是什麼樣的呢？您認為利率下降會對此產生什麼影響？

Yes. I think -- I mean, we do all this work, right? I mean, a function of how much rate -- what it would take in terms of rate declines for our in force book to have more propensity to refinance. So if rates drop 50 bps, it's not a big deal for us. I think we see more benefit in terms of homes being more affordable.

是的。我認為——我的意思是，我們做了所有這些工作，對吧？我的意思是，利率的函數——就利率下降而言，我們的有效帳簿需要多少才能更傾向於再融資。因此，如果利率下降 50 個基點，對我們來說不是什麼大問題。我認為，從房價更便宜的角度來看，我們看到了更多好處。

So I think the new production would overtake that kind of negative in terms of refinancing. So -- but if there's a big refinancing boom, then yes, we pick up that share. So it's -- and obviously, we like the in-force book a lot. I think high quality; you've got a lot of home equity built into those mortgages. So we wouldn't mind giving up a little bit of that in exchange for new business. But absent a -- I've said a significant drop in interest, I think the in-force book will stay with us for quite some time.

因此我認為，就再融資而言，新產品將彌補這種負面影響。所以——但是如果出現大規模的再融資熱潮，那麼我們就會獲得該份額。所以——顯然，我們非常喜歡這本有效書。我認為品質很高；這些抵押貸款中包含了大量的房屋淨值。因此，我們不介意放棄一點點，以換取新業務。但如果沒有——我已經說過興趣會大幅下降，我認為有效書籍將會在我們身邊停留相當長一段時間。

Yes, we have some room in that respect.

是的，我們在這方面還有一定的空間。

Wes Carmichael, Autonomous Research.

韋斯·卡邁克爾，自主研究。

I know we're over time, so I'll just keep it to one. But I had a question on reinsurance. From some of our conversations with some industry participants, it sounds like there was a bit of a return of aggregate treaties with midyear. So I was just curious how you think about your exposure to aggregates and if your appetite at all has changed to write that business.

我知道我們已經超時了，所以我只說一個。但我對再保險有疑問。從我們與一些業內人士的對話來看，似乎年中總體條約有所回歸。所以我只是好奇您如何看待您對聚合體的投資，以及您是否有興趣從事這項業務。

I don't think anything that's material. By the way, for the record, we always write aggregate treaties, but we -- it's a very small portion of what we do. And I think, yes, flavor of the day a few years back with aggregate drop down and all other good stuff that you see in software market. We haven't seen a huge comeback, and our team have supported the few that have come to the market.

我不認為有任何物質的東西。順便說一句，根據記錄，我們總是簽訂總體條約，但這只是我們工作的一小部分。是的，我認為幾年前的流行趨勢是，在軟體市場上可以見到聚合下拉選單和所有其他好東西。我們還沒有看到巨大的復甦，我們的團隊只支持少數進入市場的公司。

Elyse Greenspan, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的伊莉絲‧格林斯潘。

I just had a follow-up, I guess, coming back to some of the mid-corp discussion. I guess we were talking about, right, the -- just the programs piece of it, which I know is going to have an impact on the margin. But I know when you guys announced the deal, right, the goal was to get this business right in line with legacy Arch, right? So obviously, the 100-basis point drag on the underlying loss ratio in the quarter.

我想，我只是進行了跟進，回到一些中層討論。我想我們正在談論的是，對的，只是程序部分，我知道這將對利潤產生影響。但我知道當你們宣布這筆交易時，目標是讓這項業務與傳統的 Arch 保持一致，對嗎？因此，很明顯，100 個基點拖累了本季的基本損失率。

Can you just -- and it sounds like, right, the program piece will impact next year. Can you take us through like should we start to see some improvement relative to mid-corp and serving as like a tailwind to that insurance segment underlying loss ratio next year? -- and then it picks up more steam in ['27]. I just want to understand the cadence of kind of the improvement in the mid-corp margin and the trajectory to get in line with legacy Arch.

你能不能——聽起來，對的，該計劃將影響明年。您能否向我們介紹一下，我們是否應該開始看到相對於中型企業的一些改善，並成為明年保險部門潛在損失率的順風？ - 然後它會在['27]。我只是想了解中部公司利潤率的改善節奏以及與傳統 Arch 保持一致的軌跡。

Yes, long term, take this for making the acquisition. And I think the targeted profitability I think is unchanged. I mean the timing, it's hard to predict. We're doing a ton of work around it, preparing again. But I don't have a crystal ball as far as what the market will do around us, but I think the thing we feel good is that the assumptions that we use, I think we'll be able to realize over the time.

是的，從長遠來看，以此來進行收購。我認為目標獲利能力沒有改變。我的意思是時間很難預測。我們正在為此做大量工作，再次做好準備。但對於市場將如何變化，我沒有水晶球，但我認為讓我們感到高興的是，我們所使用的假設，我認為我們將能夠隨著時間的推移而實現。

So I am not showing any further questions. I would now like to turn the conference call over to Mr. Nicolas Papadopoulo for closing remarks.

因此我不再提出任何進一步的問題。現在，我想將電話會議交給尼可拉斯‧帕帕多普洛先生作結語。

Yes. So I want to thank you all for participating in the call and wish everyone a great summer. Definitely, Francois, and I, we need to take a bit of time off. And I want to reiterate one more time that we think the market we trade in is very attractive and the challenge, our challenge and a lot of challenge around this market is really generating new business. I think that's really it. Again, thank you, and enjoy your summer.

是的。因此，我要感謝大家參加這次電話會議，並祝福大家有個愉快的夏天。毫無疑問，弗朗索瓦和我都需要休息一段時間。我想再次重申，我們認為我們所處的市場非常有吸引力，而挑戰，我們的挑戰以及圍繞這個市場的許多挑戰確實在創造新的業務。我認為確實如此。再次感謝您，祝您夏天愉快。

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen, for participating in today's conference. This concludes the program. You may all disconnect your lines.

女士們、先生們，感謝各位參加今天的會議。本節目到此結束。你們都可以斷開自己的線路。