蘋果 (AAPL) 2019 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Apple Inc. First Quarter Fiscal Year 2019 Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is being recorded. At this time, for opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to Nancy Paxton, Senior Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

您好，歡迎來到蘋果公司。2019財年第一季財報電話會議。今天的通話將會被錄音。此時此刻，我謹將電話轉交給投資人關係資深總監南希‧帕克斯頓，請她致開幕詞並作介紹。請繼續。

Thank you. Good afternoon, and thanks to everyone for joining us. Speaking first today is Apple's CEO, Tim Cook; and he'll be followed by CFO, Luca Maestri. And after that, we'll open the call to questions from analysts.

謝謝。下午好，感謝各位的到來。今天首先發言的是蘋果執行長提姆·庫克；隨後是財務長盧卡·馬埃斯特里。之後，我們將開放電話會議，接受分析師的提問。

Please note that some of the information you'll hear during our discussion today will consist of forward-looking statements, including, without limitation, those regarding revenue, gross margin, operating expenses, other income and expense, taxes, capital allocation and future business outlook. Actual results or trends could differ materially from our forecast. For more information, please refer to the risk factors discussed in Apple's most recently filed periodic reports on Form 10-K and Form 10-Q and the Form 8-K filed with the SEC today along with the associated press release. Apple assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements or information, which speak as of their respective dates.

請注意，您今天在討論中聽到的一些資訊將包含前瞻性陳述，包括但不限於有關收入、毛利率、營運費用、其他收入和支出、稅收、資本配置和未來業務展望的陳述。實際結果或趨勢可能與我們的預測有重大差異。有關更多信息，請參閱蘋果公司最近提交的 10-K 表格和 10-Q 表格定期報告以及今天提交給美國證券交易委員會的 8-K 表格中討論的風險因素，以及相關的新聞稿。蘋果公司不承擔更新任何前瞻性聲明或資訊的義務，這些聲明或資訊僅代表其各自發布之日的情況。

I'd now like to turn the call over to Tim for introductory remarks.

現在我把電話交給提姆，請他做開場白。

Thank you, Nancy, and thanks to everyone for joining us today. This isn't the first time you've heard from us regarding the December quarter, so the first thing I want to do is provide some final results and connect those back to the letter we shared at the beginning of the month.

謝謝南希，也謝謝今天所有到場的各位。這並非我們第一次就 12 月的季度業績與您聯繫，因此，我首先想做的是提供一些最終結果，並將這些結果與我們月初分享的信件聯繫起來。

As you know, our December quarter revenue was below our original expectations coming in at $84.3 billion. That's down 5% from a year ago or down 3% adjusting for foreign exchange. We noted 4 factors that would impact our results when we provided guidance in November: different iPhone launch timing from a year ago, FX headwinds, supply constraints on certain products and macroeconomic conditions in emerging markets.

如您所知，我們12月季度的營收低於我們最初的預期，為843億美元。這比一年前下降了 5%，如果按匯率調整，則下降了 3%。我們在 11 月提供業績指引時指出了 4 個會影響我們業績的因素：iPhone 發佈時間與去年不同、匯率不利因素、某些產品的供應限制以及新興市場的宏觀經濟狀況。

One of those factors, weak macro conditions in some emerging markets, was significantly more severe than we originally foresaw, especially in Greater China. As our letter noted, that challenge was compounded by quarterly iPhone upgrades that were lower than we anticipated. We'll return to upgrades in a moment, but I first want to say a bit more about our business in Greater China. Our revenue there was down by $4.8 billion from last year with declines across iPhone, Mac and iPad. Most of the shortfall relative to our original guidance and over 100% of our worldwide year-over-year revenue decline was driven by our performance in Greater China.

其中一個因素是部分新興市場宏觀經濟狀況疲軟，其嚴重程度遠超過我們最初的預期，尤其是在大中華區。正如我們在信中提到的，季度 iPhone 升級換代數量低於預期，加劇了這項挑戰。我們稍後會再討論升級問題，但首先我想再多談談我們在大中華區的業務。我們在該地區的收入比去年減少了 48 億美元，iPhone、Mac 和 iPad 的收入都下滑。與最初的預期相比，大部分缺口以及全球同比收入下降超過 100% 都是由於我們在大中華區的表現所致。

Despite iPhone upgrades being lower than we anticipated, our business grew outside of China, including new records in the Americas, Western Europe, Central and Eastern Europe and our rest of Asia-Pacific segment. We had record performance in large markets, including the United States, Canada, Mexico, Germany, Italy, Spain and Korea.

儘管 iPhone 的升級換代量低於預期，但我們在中國以外的業務實現了成長，包括在美洲、西歐、中歐和東歐以及亞太其他地區的新紀錄。我們在包括美國、加拿大、墨西哥、德國、義大利、西班牙和韓國在內的大型市場取得了創紀錄的業績。

In the letter we shared earlier this month, we said we are proud to participate in the Chinese marketplace and that we believe our business has a bright future there over time. But I think some of that got lost, so I want to share a bit more detail on the positives we see in China.

在本月初我們分享的信中，我們表示，我們很榮幸能夠參與中國市場，我們相信，隨著時間的推移，我們的業務在中國將擁有光明的前景。但我認為其中一些資訊被忽略了，所以我想更詳細地分享我們在中國看到的積極方面。

We generated record December quarter services revenue in Greater China, fueled by an amazing ecosystem with over 2.5 million registered iOS developers. We saw very strong results from our Wearables business there with revenues up over 50%. We also continued to grow our total active installed base by adding new customers. In fact, more than 2/3 of all customers in China who bought a Mac or an iPad during the December quarter were purchasing that product for the first time.

在擁有超過 250 萬名註冊 iOS 開發者的強大生態系統的推動下，我們在大中華區 12 月季度創造了服務收入的歷史新高。我們在當地的穿戴式裝置業務取得了非常強勁的業績，營收成長超過 50%。我們也透過增加新客戶，持續擴大了我們的活躍用戶總數。事實上，在去年12月季度購買Mac或iPad的中國顧客中，超過三分之二的人是首次購買該產品。

Finally, for perspective, despite the challenging December quarter, our revenue from China grew slightly for the full calendar year. Macroeconomic factors will come and go, but we see great upside in continuing to focus on the things that we can control.

最後，從整體來看，儘管 12 月季度充滿挑戰，但我們來自中國的收入在整個日曆年內略有增長。宏觀經濟因素會來來去去，但我們認為繼續專注於我們能夠控制的事情會有很大的發展前景。

Returning to iPhone, I'd like to talk about our results in the context of those lower-than-expected upgrades. iPhone XR, iPhone XS and iPhone XS Max are, by far, the best iPhones we've ever shipped. They share advanced technologies, including the A12 Bionic, the most powerful chip ever in a smartphone with our next-generation Neural Engine capable of 5 trillion operations per second. These are also completely modern iPhones with stunning large full-screen displays and Face ID, the most secure authentication of any kind available in a smartphone.

回到 iPhone 的話題，我想結合低於預期的升級情況來談談我們的結果。迄今為止，iPhone XR、iPhone XS 和 iPhone XS Max 是我們推出的最好的 iPhone。它們共享先進技術，包括 A12 仿生晶片，這是智慧型手機中最強大的晶片，配備我們新一代神經網路引擎，每秒可進行 5 兆次運算。這些也是完全現代化的 iPhone，具有驚人的大尺寸全螢幕顯示器和 Face ID，這是智慧型手機中最安全的身份驗證方式。

And the cameras are simply amazing with portrait mode and depth control to allow users to create studio-quality photos as well as stunning 4K video, opening a whole new era of photography. We couldn't be more proud of our iPhone lineup and our industry-leading customer satisfaction. We wouldn't change our position for anyone.

這些相機擁有人像模式和景深控制功能，讓用戶能夠拍攝出影棚品質的照片以及令人驚豔的 4K 視頻，堪稱驚艷，開啟了攝影的全新時代。我們為我們的 iPhone 產品線和業界領先的客戶滿意度感到無比自豪。我們絕不會為任何人改變立場。

Now our customers are holding on to their older iPhones a bit longer than in the past. When you pair this with the macroeconomic factors, particularly in emerging markets, it resulted in iPhone revenue that was down 15% from last year. Our iPhone results accounted for significantly more than our entire year-over-year revenue decline. In fact, outside of iPhone, our business grew strongly by 19%. So what's behind this?

現在我們的客戶使用舊款 iPhone 的時間比以往要長一些。再加上宏觀經濟因素，特別是新興市場的經濟因素，導致 iPhone 的營收比去年下降了 15%。我們的 iPhone 業績下滑幅度遠遠超過了我們全年營收年減的幅度。事實上，除了 iPhone 之外，我們的業務成長強勁，達到了 19%。這背後究竟隱藏著什麼？

It's important to understand what's going on from the customer perspective at the point of purchase. We believe that it's the sum of several factors: first, foreign exchange. The relative strength of the U.S. dollar has made our products more expensive in many parts of the world. In Turkey, for example, the lira depreciated by 33% over the course of calendar 2018, and in the December quarter, our revenue there was down by almost $700 million from the previous year.

在購買環節，了解顧客的感受非常重要。我們認為這是幾個因素共同作用的結果：首先是外匯。美元相對強勢導致我們的產品在世界許多地區價格上漲。例如，在土耳其，里拉在 2018 年全年貶值了 33%，在 12 月季度，我們在那裡的收入比前一年減少了近 7 億美元。

Second, subsidies. For various reasons, iPhone subsidies are becoming increasingly less common. In Japan, for example, iPhone purchases were traditionally subsidized by carriers and bundled with service contracts. Competitive promotional activity frequently increase the amount of subsidy during key periods. Today, local regulations have significantly restricted those subsidies as well as related competition. As a result, we estimate that less than half of iPhones sold in Japan in Q1 of this year were subsidized compared to about 3/4 a year ago and that the total value of those subsidies had come down as well.

其次，是補貼。由於各種原因，iPhone補貼正變得越來越少見。例如，在日本，iPhone 的購買傳統上是由營運商補貼的，並且與服務合約捆綁銷售。競爭性的促銷活動往往會在關鍵時期增加補貼金額。如今，地方法規已大幅限制了這些補貼以及相關的競爭。因此，我們估計今年第一季在日本售出的 iPhone 中，享有補貼的不到一半，而一年前這一比例約為 3/4，而且這些補貼的總金額也有所下降。

Third, our battery replacement program. For millions of customers, we made it inexpensive and efficient to replace the battery and hold onto their existing iPhones a bit longer. Some people have suggested that we shouldn't have done this because of the potential impact on upgrades, but we strongly believe it was the right thing to do for our customers.

第三，我們的電池更換方案。我們讓數百萬用戶能夠以低廉的價格和高效的方式更換電池，從而延長他們現有 iPhone 的使用壽命。有人認為我們不應該這樣做，因為這可能會對升級造成影響，但我們堅信這對我們的客戶來說是正確的做法。

What's very important, however, is that in spite of these factors, our total active installed base of devices has grown from 1.3 billion at the end of January of 2018 to 1.4 billion by the end of December, reaching a new all-time high for each of the main product categories and for all 5 of our geographic segments. Not only is our large and growing installed base a powerful testament to the satisfaction and loyalty of our customers, but it's also fueling our fast growing Services business. In fact, Services revenue set an all-time record at $10.9 billion in the December quarter, growing 19%.

然而，非常重要的是，儘管存在這些因素，我們的活躍設備總安裝量已從 2018 年 1 月底的 13 億台增長到 12 月底的 14 億台，在每個主要產品類別和我們所有 5 個地理區域都達到了歷史新高。我們龐大且不斷成長的客戶群不僅有力地證明了客戶的滿意度和忠誠度，而且還推動了我們快速成長的服務業務。事實上，服務收入在 12 月季度創下歷史新高，達到 109 億美元，成長了 19%。

We not only generated our highest global Services revenue ever, but we also had all-time records across multiple categories of Services, including the App Store, Apple Pay, cloud services and our App Store Search Ad business, and we had a December quarter record for AppleCare. And I'm very proud to say that nearly 16 years after launching the iTunes Store, we generated our highest quarterly music revenue ever, thanks to the great popularity of Apple Music, now with over 50 million paid subscribers.

我們不僅創造了有史以來最高的全球服務收入，而且在多個服務類別中也創下了歷史新高，包括 App Store、Apple Pay、雲端服務和我們的 App Store 搜尋廣告業務，AppleCare 在 12 月季度也創下了紀錄。我非常自豪地說，在 iTunes Store 上線近 16 年後，我們實現了有史以來最高的季度音樂收入，這要歸功於 Apple Music 的巨大成功，目前 Apple Music 的付費用戶已超過 5000 萬。

The App Store wrapped up its best year ever with record holiday period results propelled by the biggest Christmas Day and Christmas week ever. Customers also spent over $322 million on New Year's Day alone, setting a new single-day record for both the number of customers and purchase volume. It was also a great holiday season for Apple Pay with over 1.8 billion transactions in the quarter, well over twice the volume of the year-ago quarter. Merchant adoption continues to reach new milestones. Customers can now use Apple Pay with iPhone and Apple Watch at nearly 3,000 Speedway locations, while all Target, Taco Bell and Jack in the Box stores will be accepting Apple Pay soon.

App Store 迎來了有史以來最好的一年，假期期間的銷售業績創下歷史新高，這主要得益於有史以來規模最大的聖誕節當天和聖誕節週的銷售增長。光是元旦當天，顧客的消費就超過了 3.22 億美元，創下了單日顧客人數和消費額的新紀錄。對於 Apple Pay 來說，這個假期季節也取得了巨大成功，該季度交易量超過 18 億筆，是去年同期交易量的兩倍多。商家採用率持續攀升，屢創新高。現在，顧客可以在近 3000 家 Speedway 便利商店使用 iPhone 和 Apple Watch 進行 Apple Pay 支付，而所有 Target、Taco Bell 和 Jack in the Box 門市也將很快接受 Apple Pay 支付。

We launched Apple Pay in 3 new countries in the December quarter: Germany, Belgium and Kazakhstan and it's now live in 27 markets around the world. The rollout in Germany has been a huge success with Deutsche Bank reporting more activations for Apple Pay in 1 week than for Android in an entire year. This is yet another example of what's possible when you bring together Apple's world-class hardware, software and ecosystem with our engaged and active user base. Shoppers around the world love Apple Pay, and it has increasingly become an indispensable part of daily life.

我們在去年12月季度在德國、比利時和哈薩克這三個新國家推出了Apple Pay，目前Apple Pay已在全球27個市場上線。Apple Pay 在德國的推廣取得了巨大成功，德意志銀行報告稱，Apple Pay 在一周內的激活量超過了 Android Pay 一整年的激活量。這再次證明了將蘋果世界一流的硬體、軟體和生態系統與我們積極活躍的用戶群結合起來所能取得的成就。世界各地的購物者都喜歡 Apple Pay，它已日益成為日常生活中不可或缺的一部分。

Revenue from cloud services continues to grow rapidly with year-over-year revenue up over 40% in the December quarter. And readership of Apple News set a new record with over 85 million monthly active users in the 3 countries where we've launched: the United States, the U.K. and Australia. Here in the U.S., the latest data from comScore shows that Apple News has the largest audience of all news apps. And the international audience will continue to grow with our first-ever bilingual launch in Canada available to customers later this quarter.

雲端服務收入持續快速成長，12 月季度年增超過 40%。Apple News 的讀者人數創下新紀錄，在我們推出服務的三個國家（美國、英國和澳洲）的月活躍用戶超過 8,500 萬。在美國，comScore 的最新數據顯示，蘋果新聞是所有新聞應用程式中用戶最多的。隨著我們首次在加拿大推出雙語版本，國際用戶群將繼續擴大，該版本將於本季稍後向加拿大客戶提供。

In summary, we're very happy not only with the growth but also the breadth of our Services portfolio. Our revenue from Services has grown from less than $8 billion in calendar 2010 to over $41 billion in calendar 2018. The largest category represents less than 30% of total Services revenue, and the new services we've launched in the last few years are all experiencing tremendous growth.

總而言之，我們不僅為服務組合的成長感到非常滿意，也對其廣度感到非常滿意。我們的服務收入已從 2010 年的不到 80 億美元成長到 2018 年的超過 410 億美元。最大的類別佔服務總收入的不到 30%，而我們在過去幾年推出的新服務都經歷了巨大的成長。

We had our best quarter ever for Mac revenue, which was up 9% fueled by our new MacBook Air and Mac mini introduced in October. The MacBook Air includes a beautiful new Retina display, Touch ID and Force Touch Trackpad, while the new Mac mini provides a powerful, flexible solution for everything from home automation to giant render farms.

我們Mac產品的營收迎來了有史以來最好的一個季度，成長了9%，這主要得益於我們在10月份推出的新款MacBook Air和Mac mini。MacBook Air 配備了精美的全新 Retina 顯示器、觸控 ID 和 Force Touch 觸控板，而新款 Mac mini 則為從家庭自動化到大型渲染農場的各種應用提供了強大而靈活的解決方案。

iPad revenue was up 17%, its highest growth rate in almost 6 years, powered by the new iPad Pro released in November. With its edge-to-edge Liquid Retina display, Face ID and A12X Bionic chip, the new iPad Pro has been described by reviewers as a tablet with no equal and the most powerful mobile device ever made.

受11月發布的新款iPad Pro的推動，iPad收入成長了17%，創下近6年來的最高成長率。憑藉其全面屏 Liquid Retina 顯示器、Face ID 和 A12X 仿生晶片，新款 iPad Pro 被評論家們譽為無與倫比的平板電腦，也是有史以來最強大的行動裝置。

We also had our best quarter ever for Wearables, Home and Accessories with 33% growth in total and almost 50% growth from Wearables, thanks to strong sales of both Apple Watch and AirPods.

穿戴式裝置、家居和配件業務也迎來了有史以來最好的一個季度，總成長率達 33%，其中穿戴式裝置業務成長近 50%，這主要得益於 Apple Watch 和 AirPods 的強勁銷售。

We don't measure our success in 90-day increments. We manage Apple for the long term, and when we consider the keys to our success over time, there are 3 that stand out: our highly satisfied and loyal customers; our large and growing active installed base; and at the heart of it all, our deeply ingrained culture of innovation. Thanks to all this, our ecosystem is stronger than ever before.

我們不會以90天為單位來衡量成功。我們著眼於蘋果公司的長期發展，當我們思考我們長期成功的關鍵時，有三點尤為突出：我們高度滿意和忠誠的客戶；我們龐大且不斷增長的活躍用戶群；以及這一切的核心，我們根深蒂固的創新文化。正因如此，我們的生態系統比以往任何時候都更強大。

We have an amazingly talented team, creating hardware, software and services, optimizing each of them to create an unparalleled user experience. Apple Watch is a powerful example of that. It's humbling to read e-mails from customers around the world telling us how Apple Watch has dramatically changed their lives by motivating them to be more fit and active, by alerting them to potentially serious health conditions such as AFib and by helping them in times of crisis with features like fall detection and emergency SOS. We believe we are just beginning to see the impact we can make to improving health and are deeply inspired by the possibilities.

我們擁有一支才華橫溢的團隊，他們創造硬體、軟體和服務，並不斷優化，以創造無與倫比的用戶體驗。Apple Watch 就是一個強而有力的例子。讀到來自世界各地客戶的電子郵件，講述 Apple Watch 如何透過激勵他們更加健康積極地生活、提醒他們注意潛在的嚴重健康問題（例如房顫）以及在危機時刻通過跌倒檢測和緊急 SOS 等功能幫助他們，從而極大地改變了他們的生活，我們深感榮幸。我們相信，我們才剛開始看到我們能夠為改善健康做出的貢獻，並深受各種可能性的鼓舞。

Another example is the work we're doing with silicon. We've embedded machine learning directly into the silicon with our A12 Bionic chip. Our custom Neural Engine not only provides power efficiency and incredible performance in a very small package, but it also enables processing of data and transactions directly on the device. This means iPhone can recognize patterns, make predictions and learn from experience, and it does all this while keeping personal information private. This is a powerful example of how innovation and privacy can go hand in hand at a time when these issues are increasingly important to our users.

另一個例子是我們正在進行的矽材料研究。我們在 A12 仿生晶片中直接嵌入了機器學習技術。我們客製化的神經網路引擎不僅在非常小的封裝中提供了極高的能源效率和令人難以置信的效能，而且還能夠直接在設備上處理資料和交易。這意味著 iPhone 可以識別模式、進行預測並從經驗中學習，而且這一切都是在保護個人資訊隱私的情況下完成的。這是一個強而有力的例子，說明在這些問題對我們的用戶越來越重要的當下，創新和隱私如何能齊頭並進。

We are undertaking and accelerating a number of initiatives to improve our results. It's not in our DNA to just stand around and wait for macroeconomic conditions to improve. One such initiative is making it simple to trade in an iPhone in our stores and raising awareness of this opportunity. Because of the quality and durability of iPhones, they maintain significant residual value, making trade-ins a great opportunity. It's not only great for the environment. It's great for the customer as their existing phone acts as a subsidy for their new phone, and it's great for developers as the phone that is traded in and redistributed can help grow our active installed base.

我們正在實施並加快推進多項舉措，以改善我們的業績。我們天生就沒有那種袖手旁觀、坐等宏觀經濟狀況好轉的性格。其中一項措施是簡化顧客在我們門市以舊換新的 iPhone 流程，並提高顧客對此機會的認識。由於 iPhone 的品質和耐用性，它們能保持很高的殘值，因此以舊換新是一個絕佳的機會。這不僅對環境有益。這對客戶來說是好事，因為他們現有的手機可以作為新手機的補貼；對開發者來說也是好事，因為以舊換新並重新分配的手機可以幫助我們擴大活躍用戶群。

Beginning last week, we started making it easier for people to pay for their phones over time with installment payments, and we're working on rolling out this program to more geographies as soon as we can. We are as confident as ever in the fundamental strength of our business, and we have a very strong pipeline of products and services with some exciting announcements coming later this year. Apple innovates like no other company on Earth, and we are not taking our foot off the gas. We'll continue to invest through near-term headwinds just as we always have, and we'll emerge stronger as a result.

從上週開始，我們開始讓人們更容易透過分期付款的方式支付手機費用，我們正在努力盡快將這項計劃推廣到更多地區。我們對公司的基本實力一如既往地充滿信心，我們擁有非常強大的產品和服務儲備，今年稍後還將發布一些令人興奮的消息。蘋果公司的創新能力在地球上其他任何公司都無法比擬，我們也不會放鬆這種創新步伐。我們將一如既往地克服短期不利因素繼續投資，並最終變得更強大。

Now for more details on our December quarter results, I'd like to turn the call over to Luca.

現在，為了更詳細地介紹我們 12 月季度的業績，我想把電話交給 Luca。

Thank you, Tim. Good afternoon, everyone. As Tim said, revenue for the December quarter was $84.3 billion. This result was below our expectations, but we were able to set new all-time revenue records in the U.S., Canada, Latin America, Western Europe, Central and Eastern Europe and Korea. Our results were especially strong in the U.S., where revenue was up by more than $1.5 billion compared to a year ago and in several markets where revenue grew by double digits, including, among others, Germany, Spain, Poland, Mexico, Malaysia and Vietnam.

謝謝你，提姆。大家下午好。正如蒂姆所說，12 月季度的收入為 843 億美元。雖然這個結果低於我們的預期，但我們在美國、加拿大、拉丁美洲、西歐、中歐和東歐以及韓國都創下了新的歷史收入紀錄。我們在美國市場的業績尤其強勁，營收比去年同期成長超過 15 億美元；在德國、西班牙、波蘭、墨西哥、馬來西亞和越南等多個市場，營收也實現了兩位數的成長。

Looking at product categories. iPhone revenue declined 15% from a year ago, while revenue from the rest of our business grew 19% to an all-time record, including our best results ever for Services, for Wearables and for Mac. Company gross margin was 38%. This quarter, for the first time, we're making an important new disclosure to our investors as we believe it will foster a better understanding of our business. We're now reporting, on a quarterly basis, gross margin for products in aggregate and for services in aggregate. Products gross margin was 34.3%, and services gross margin was 62.8%.

查看產品類別。iPhone 營收比去年同期下降了 15%，而我們其他業務的營收成長了 19%，創歷史新高，其中包括我們在服務、穿戴式裝置和 Mac 方面取得的最佳業績。公司毛利率為38%。本季度，我們將首次向投資者披露一項重要的新訊息，因為我們相信這將有助於投資者更好地了解我們的業務。我們現在按季度報告產品總毛利率和服務總毛利率。產品毛利率為 34.3%，服務毛利率為 62.8%。

On a sequential basis, products gross margin increased 60 basis points due to positive leverage from the holiday quarter partially offset by higher cost structures as we launched several new products and by headwinds from foreign exchange. Services gross margin also increased 170 basis points sequentially due to favorable mix and leverage partially offset by foreign exchange. While both products and services gross margins improved sequentially, total company gross margin was down 30 basis points due to a different mix between products and services.

與上一季相比，產品毛利率成長了 60 個基點，這主要得益於假日季的正面影響，但部分被我們推出幾款新產品而導致的成本結構上升以及外匯匯率的不利因素所抵消。服務業毛利率較上季成長 170 個基點，這主要得益於有利的產品組合和槓桿作用，但部分被外匯匯率波動所抵銷。儘管產品和服務的毛利率較上月均有所提高，但由於產品和服務組合的變化，該公司整體毛利率下降了 30 個基點。

Net income was $20 billion, about flat to last year; and diluted earnings per share were an all-time record at $4.18, an increase of 7.5% over last year. Operating cash flow was also very strong at $26.7 billion.

淨利潤為 200 億美元，與去年基本持平；稀釋後每股收益創歷史新高，達 4.18 美元，比去年增長 7.5%。經營現金流也非常強勁，達到 267 億美元。

Let me provide more color for the various products categories. iPhone revenue was $52 billion. On a geographic basis, most of the decline from last year came from Greater China and other emerging markets, where difficult macro and foreign exchange conditions affected our results. We also believe that the reduction of carrier subsidies and our battery replacement program had an impact in a number of countries around the world. And as Tim mentioned, we had a lower number of upgrades than we had anticipated at the beginning of the quarter.

讓我為各個產品類別提供更多細節介紹。iPhone 的營收為 520 億美元。從地理來看，去年業績下滑主要來自大中華區和其他新興市場，這些地區宏觀經濟和外匯環境的困難影響了我們的業績。我們也認為，減少營運商補貼和我們的電池更換計畫對世界許多國家都產生了影響。正如蒂姆所提到的那樣，我們的升級數量比季度初的預期要少。

However, our global active installed base of iPhones continues to grow and has reached an all-time high at the end of December. We are disclosing that number now for the first time. And it has surpassed 900 million devices, up year-over-year in each of our 5 geographic segments and growing almost 75 million in the last 12 months alone. We plan to provide information on the iPhone installed base as well as total installed base on a periodic basis.

然而，我們的全球 iPhone 活躍裝置容量持續成長，並在 12 月底達到了歷史最高水準。我們現在首次公佈這個數字。設備數量已超過 9 億台，在我們 5 個地理區域中均實現了同比增長，僅在過去 12 個月就增長了近 7500 萬台。我們計劃定期提供有關 iPhone 安裝量以及總安裝量的資訊。

Customer satisfaction and loyalty for iPhone continue to be outstanding and are the highest in the industry. The latest survey of U.S. consumers from 451 Research indicates customer satisfaction of 99% for iPhone XR, XS and XS Max combined. And among business buyers who plan to purchase smartphones in the March quarter, 81% plan to purchase iPhones. Based on the latest information from Kantar, iPhone experienced a 90% customer loyalty rating for iPhone customers in the U.S., 23 points above the next highest brand measured.

iPhone 的顧客滿意度和忠誠度持續保持優異，在業界名列前茅。451 Research 最新對美國消費者的調查顯示，iPhone XR、XS 和 XS Max 的綜合客戶滿意度為 99%。在計劃於三月季度購買智慧型手機的企業買家中，81% 的人計劃購買 iPhone。根據 Kantar 的最新數據，iPhone 在美國的客戶忠誠度高達 90%，比第二名的品牌高出 23 個百分點。

Turning to Services. It was our best quarter ever with revenue of $10.9 billion, up 19% year-over-year with new December quarter records in all 5 of our geographic segments. Many Services categories set new all-time revenue records, and we are on track to achieve our goal of doubling our fiscal 2016 Services revenue by 2020. To be clear and as we've already explained 90 days ago, our 2020 goal remains unchanged, and it excludes the impact of the revenue reclassification between products and services we recorded in connection with ASC 606, the new revenue recognition accounting standard that we adopted at the beginning of fiscal '19.

轉到服務部分。這是我們有史以來業績最好的一個季度，營收達 109 億美元，年增 19%，我們在所有 5 個地理區域都創下了 12 月季度的新紀錄。許多服務類別創下了新的歷史收入記錄，我們預計在 2020 年實現 2016 財年服務收入翻倍的目標。需要明確的是，正如我們在 90 天前已經解釋的那樣，我們的 2020 年目標保持不變，並且不包括我們根據 ASC 606（我們在 2019 財年初採用的新收入確認會計準則）記錄的產品和服務之間的收入重新分類的影響。

The level of engagement of our customers in our ecosystem continues to grow. The number of transacting accounts on our digital stores reached a new all-time high during the quarter with the number of paid accounts growing by strong double digits over last year. And we now have over 360 million paid subscriptions across our Services portfolio, an increase of 120 million versus a year ago. Given the continued strength and momentum in this part of the business, we now expect the number of paid subscriptions to surpass 0.5 billion during 2020.

我們客戶對我們生態系統的參與度持續提高。本季度，我們數位商店的交易帳戶數量創歷史新高，付費帳戶數量較去年同期實現了強勁的兩位數成長。目前，我們的服務組合中付費訂閱用戶已超過 3.6 億，比一年前增加了 1.2 億。鑑於該業務部分持續強勁的成長勢頭，我們現在預計 2020 年付費訂閱用戶數量將超過 5 億。

Our subscription business has become very large and diversified, covering many different categories from entertainment to health and fitness to lifestyle. In fact, more than 30,000 third-party subscription apps are available today on the App Store, and the largest of them accounts for only 0.3% of our total Services revenue.

我們的訂閱業務規模龐大且多元化，涵蓋從娛樂到健康健身再到生活方式等眾多不同類別。事實上，目前 App Store 上有超過 30,000 個第三方訂閱應用，其中最大的應用程式僅占我們服務總收入的 0.3%。

Next, I'd like to talk about the Mac. We saw great response to the new MacBook Air and Mac mini that we introduced in October, which helped drive a 9% increase in Mac revenue over last year to a new all-time record. Mac revenue was up in the vast majority of countries we track with double-digit growth in many large markets such as the U.S., Western Europe, Central and Eastern Europe, Japan, Korea and South Asia. Our active installed base of Macs reached a new all-time high, and half of all the customers purchasing Macs in the December quarter were new to Mac.

接下來，我想談談Mac電腦。我們在 10 月推出的新款 MacBook Air 和 Mac mini 獲得了巨大的市場反響，這使得 Mac 的收入比去年增長了 9%，創下了歷史新高。在我們追蹤的大多數國家，Mac 的營收都有所成長，在美國、西歐、中歐和東歐、日本、韓國和南亞等許多大型市場，Mac 的營收更是實現了兩位數的成長。我們的 Mac 活躍裝置裝機量達到了歷史新高，12 月購買 Mac 的客戶中有一半是 Mac 新用戶。

We also had great results for iPad with revenue up 17% from a year ago. And strong performance of both iPad and iPad Pro had generated double-digit growth in 4 of our 5 geographic segments. Similar to the Mac, our installed base of iPads reached a new all-time high, and among customers purchasing iPad during the quarter, half were new to iPad.

iPad 也取得了非常好的業績，營收比去年同期成長了 17%。iPad 和 iPad Pro 的強勁表​​現，在我們 5 個地理區域中的 4 個區域實現了兩位數的成長。與 Mac 類似，我們的 iPad 安裝量達到了歷史新高，在本季購買 iPad 的客戶中，有一半是 iPad 新用戶。

The most recent consumer survey from 451 Research measured a 94% customer satisfaction rating for iPad overall with iPad Pro models scoring as high as 100%. Among business customers who plan to purchase tablets in the March quarter, 68% plan to purchase iPads.

451 Research 最新消費者調查顯示，iPad 的整體客戶滿意度為 94%，其中 iPad Pro 機型的得分高達 100%。在計劃於三月季度購買平板電腦的企業客戶中，68% 計劃購買 iPad。

Wearables, Home and Accessories revenue grew 33% to a new all-time record in each of our geographic segments. Revenue from this category was up over $1.8 billion compared to a year ago, thanks to the amazing popularity of Apple Watch and AirPods, both of which were supply constrained as we exited the quarter. Based on revenue over the past 4 quarters, our Wearables business is approaching the size of a Fortune 200 company.

穿戴式裝置、家居用品和配件的收入成長了 33%，在我們各個地理區域都創下了歷史新高。由於 Apple Watch 和 AirPods 的驚人受歡迎程度，該類別的收入比去年同期增長了 18 億美元以上，而這兩款產品在本季末都出現了供應短缺。根據過去四個季度的收入，我們的穿戴式裝置業務規模已接近財富 200 強公司。

Our retail and online stores generated strong results from Mac and iPad and all-time record performance from Services and from Wearables. Following the launch of the new iPhone trade-in campaign, our stores more than doubled the volume of iPhones traded in compared to last year, reaching an all-time high in Q1. We added Thailand to our footprint with a beautiful store in Bangkok, and we opened a stunning new store on Champs-Élysées in Paris, exiting the quarter with 506 physical stores in 22 countries.

我們的零售和線上商店在 Mac 和 iPad 方面取得了強勁的業績，在服務和穿戴式裝置方面也創下了歷史新高。自從推出新的 iPhone 以舊換新活動以來，我們的門市 iPhone 以舊換新數量比去年翻了一番還多，並在第一季達到了歷史最高水平。我們在曼谷開設了一家漂亮的門市，將業務版圖擴展到了泰國；同時，我們在巴黎香榭麗舍大道開設了一家令人驚豔的新店，離開該區域時，我們在 22 個國家擁有 506 家實體店。

In enterprise, across multiple industries, our technology continues to enable businesses to do their best work. In health care, iPhones and iOS apps continue to streamline and support clinical workflows, communications and care delivery across leading health systems, including Johns Hopkins Medicine, Massachusetts General Hospital, Stanford Health Care and St. Jude Children's Research Hospital.

在企業領域，在多個產業中，我們的技術不斷幫助企業做到最好。在醫療保健領域，iPhone 和 iOS 應用程式繼續簡化和支援領先的醫療系統的臨床工作流程、溝通和護理服務，包括約翰霍普金斯醫學中心、麻省總醫院、史丹佛醫療保健中心和聖路易斯大學醫院。聖裘德兒童研究醫院。

In manufacturing, SKF, the world's largest producers of bearings and seals, have transformed their manufacturing processes on iOS and iPhone with incredible success. With custom iOS apps available to production operators across their worldwide locations, SKF has reduced production errors from 20% to 0 while saving 70% in system-related time. Apple technology has made possible a simplified user experience integrating the SAP Cloud Platform, yielding better accuracy, efficiency and employee experiences across the board.

在製造業領域，全球最大的軸承和密封件生產商 SKF 已成功地在 iOS 和 iPhone 上改造了其製造流程。透過向全球各地的生產操作員提供客製化的 iOS 應用程序，SKF 將生產錯誤率從 20% 降低到 0%，同時節省了 70% 的系統相關時間。蘋果的技術實現了簡化的使用者體驗，整合了 SAP 雲端平台，從而全面提高了準確性、效率和員工體驗。

We're also seeing great innovation in the construction industry with iPad and new third-party apps made for iOS. For instance, Procore Technologies has introduced an app to help decrease building errors on the job site. By using Metal and Split View with the iPad camera, construction workers can compare building plans and 3D models to what is actually being built in realtime. This new iOS app reduces wasted raw materials and helps keep building projects on time and on budget.

我們也看到建築業借助 iPad 和專為 iOS 開發的第三方應用程式實現了巨大的創新。例如，Procore Technologies 推出了一款應用程序，旨在幫助減少施工現場的建築錯誤。透過將 Metal 和 Split View 與 iPad 攝影機搭配使用，建築工人可以將建築平面圖和 3D 模型與實際即時建造的內容進行比較。這款全新的 iOS 應用可以減少原材料浪費，並有助於確保建築專案按時按預算完成。

Let me now turn to our cash position. We ended the quarter with $245 billion in cash plus marketable securities. We also had $102.8 billion in term debt and $12 billion in commercial paper outstanding for a net cash position of $130 billion. As we explained in the past, it is our plan to reach a net cash neutral position over time.

現在讓我來看看我們的現金狀況。本季末，我們持有現金及有價證券共2450億美元。我們還有 1,028 億美元的定期債務和 120 億美元的未償商業票據，淨現金部位為 1,300 億美元。正如我們之前解釋過的，我們的計劃是隨著時間的推移實現淨現金中性。

As part of this plan, we returned over $13 billion to our investors during the December quarter. We repurchased 38 million Apple shares for $8.2 billion through open market transactions, and we paid $3.6 billion in dividends and equivalents. Consistent with our historical cadence, we plan to provide an update on our overall capital return program when we report our March quarter results.

作為該計劃的一部分，我們在12月季度向投資者返還了超過130億美元。我們透過公開市場交易回購了 3,800 萬股蘋果股票，價值 82 億美元，並支付了 36 億美元的股息及等價物。按照我們以往的慣例，我們計劃在公佈三月季度業績時，同時提供有關我們整體資本回報計劃的最新資訊。

As we move ahead into the March quarter, I'd like to review our outlook, which includes the types of forward-looking information that Nancy referred to at the beginning of the call. We expect revenue to be between $55 billion and $59 billion. This range reflects a negative year-over-year impact of $1.3 billion from foreign exchange, which represents about 210 basis points of last year's revenue and a more uncertain macroeconomic environment than a year ago, especially in emerging markets.

隨著我們進入三月的季度，我想回顧一下我們的展望，其中包括南希在電話會議開始時提到的那些前瞻性資訊。我們預計營收將在550億美元至590億美元之間。這一區間反映了外匯匯率對年比13億美元的負面影響，相當於去年收入的約210個基點，並且宏觀經濟環境比一年前更加不確定，尤其是在新興市場。

We expect gross margin to be between 37% and 38%. On a sequential basis, this range reflects seasonal loss of leverage and a 60 basis point unfavorable impact from foreign exchange, partially offset by commodity cost savings.

我們預計毛利率將在 37% 至 38% 之間。從環比來看，這一區間反映了季節性槓桿損失和外匯匯率 60 個基點的不利影響，部分被商品成本節約所抵銷。

We expect OpEx to be between $8.5 billion and $8.6 billion. We expect OI&E to be about $300 million, and we expect the tax rate to be about 17%. Also, today, our Board of Directors has declared a cash dividend of $0.73 per share of common stock payable on February 14, 2019, to shareholders of record as of February 11, 2019.

我們預計營運支出將在 85 億美元至 86 億美元之間。我們預計營運收入和支出約為 3 億美元，稅率約為 17%。此外，今天，我們的董事會宣布派發每股普通股0.73美元的現金股息，將於2019年2月14日支付給截至2019年2月11日登記在冊的股東。

With that, I'd like to open the call to questions.

接下來，我想接受大家的提問。

Thank you, Luca. (Operator Instructions)

謝謝你，盧卡。（操作說明）

Our first question will come from Katy Huberty with Morgan Stanley.

我們的第一個問題來自摩根士丹利的凱蒂·休伯蒂。

Services growth did decelerate from the growth rates in recent quarters. So can you talk about the factors that played into that slower growth? And then appreciate the new disclosure around paid subscribers. But if you compare what you added in 2018 versus what you expect to add over the next 2 years, that implies a slowdown in annual net new subscribers. So should we be thinking about Services as a lower growth segment than what you experienced in 2018? And then I have a follow-up.

服務業成長較前幾季放緩。那麼，您能否談談導致成長放緩的因素？然後，請欣賞關於付費訂閱用戶的新披露資訊。但如果你比較一下 2018 年新增用戶數與未來 2 年預計新增用戶數，你會發現這意味著年度淨新增用戶數成長放緩。那麼，我們是否應該將服務業視為一個成長速度低於 2018 年水準的產業呢？然後我還有一個後續問題。

Yes, Katy, let me take that one. First of all, when we talk about the Services business, it's very important to start from the momentum that we have. As you know, we have set an ambitious target for ourselves to double the size of our business from fiscal '16 to 2020, which implied, at the time, a 19% CAGR. So far, we've been able to grow about 20%. In fiscal '18, we grew 22%, so we are on track to achieve our objective. And it's important to understand what is driving the growth of the business. First of all, it's our installed base. As we just told you, the installed base continues to grow very nicely. It has reached 1.4 billion active devices at the end of December, and really, very little of our Services revenue is driven by what we sell in the last 90 days. The second factor for the growth of the Services business is that, within this installed base, the percentage of users who are paying for at least 1 service is growing very strongly. This is due to several factors. First of all, we're offering more and more services. During the last few years, as you know, we launched Apple Music, Apple Pay and advertising service for our developers on the App Store. All these businesses are growing very strongly. Second, we are making it easier for our customers to transact on our digital stores. We accept many more payment methods today, which are very common in certain countries around the world. We've also increased the distribution coverage for many of these services. We're bringing AppleCare to more points of sale around the world. We are launching Apple Pay in more and more markets and so on. Thirdly, as you mentioned, our subscriptions are becoming a very large portion of our business, and they're growing very well above Services average. And the fact that we are saying that we will surpass 0.5 billion during 2020, we're not putting a specific date during 2020, but I think you've seen over recent quarters that we've been adding about 120 million on a year-over-year basis for a number of quarters now. And this is an incredible staggering number, right, when you think about it. We're also broadening the scope of many of these services. You should take Apple Pay as an example. It started off as the most convenient, most private and most secure way to make a payment in a store or in an app. Then, we took Apple Pay to Safari. Then, we started a peer-to-peer service, and we're launching it in new markets across the world every quarter. So we are broadening that scope. And of course, similar to what we've done in the past in the last 3 years we launched several new services, we're also looking to launch new services going forward that we believe will provide great value to our users. And we're really very excited about the opportunities that we see in front of us. I think you're referring to the deceleration in the growth rate that we've seen in the December quarter, and I think you're referring back to the growth that we reported in September. I think an important point I need to make and I think it's helpful that you asked the question is that a portion of this deceleration is truly just a reclassification of the amortization of free services that we've made in connection with the adoption of the new revenue recognition standard. And as we explained 90 days ago, this amortization of free services in the past was reported under products and now gets reported under services. The reclassification is actually dilutive to our growth rate because the amortization of free services is a relatively stable number, which gets applied to our growing base. So this reclassification reduces our growth rate versus the previous classification. This factor, by itself, represents roughly 1/3 of the deceleration that you've seen. We talked about 27% growth in the September quarter. With the reclassification, that growth rate was about 24.5%. So that explains about 1/3 of that deceleration. There are, I would say, 3 factors that explain this difference between the 24.5% to the 19%. The first one is that foreign exchange plays a role. Roughly 60% of our Services business is outside the United States; and as you know, the U.S. dollar has appreciated in recent months. And in general, we tend not to reprice our services for foreign exchange on a very frequent basis. The second factor is a well-known issue around the App Store in China. The App Store in China is a large business for us. We believe this issue around the approval of new game titles is temporary in nature but clearly is affecting our business right now. And then thirdly, we are seeing some level of deceleration in AppleCare, which has had very, very strong growth during fiscal '18, where we're starting to lap some of the increase in distribution coverage that we put in place recently and the channel fill of Apple components that happened when we increased the distribution coverage. But in general, we are very, very pleased with 19% growth, and we think that the business will continue to grow nicely going forward.

好的，凱蒂，讓我來吧。首先，當我們談到服務業務時，從我們現有的發展勢頭出發非常重要。如您所知，我們為自己設定了一個雄心勃勃的目標，從 2016 財年到 2020 財年將業務規模擴大一倍，這意味著當時的複合年增長率為 19%。到目前為止，我們已經實現了約 20% 的成長。2018財年，我們實現了22%的成長，因此我們正朝著目標穩步前進。了解企業成長的驅動因素至關重要。首先，這是我們的用戶基數。正如我們剛才所說，用戶基數持續穩定成長。截至 12 月底，我們的活躍設備數量已達到 14 億台，而實際上，我們的服務收入很少是由過去 90 天的銷售額帶來的。服務業務成長的第二個因素是，在現有用戶群中，至少付費使用一項服務的用戶比例正在強勁成長。這主要歸因於幾個因素。首先，我們提供的服務越來越多。如您所知，在過去幾年裡，我們在 App Store 上推出了 Apple Music、Apple Pay 和開發者導向的廣告服務。這些企業都在強勁成長。其次，我們正在讓客戶更容易在我們的數位商店進行交易。如今我們接受更多種類的支付方式，這些支付方式在世界某些國家非常普遍。我們也擴大了其中許多服務的覆蓋範圍。我們將把 AppleCare 服務推廣到世界各地更多的銷售點。我們將在越來越多的市場推出 Apple Pay，等等。第三，正如您所提到的，我們的訂閱業務正在成為我們業務中非常大的一部分，而且其成長速度遠高於服務業務的平均水平。我們說我們將在 2020 年突破 5 億，雖然我們沒有給出 2020 年的具體日期，但我認為你們已經看到，在最近幾個季度，我們每年新增約 1.2 億人口。仔細想想，這的確是一個令人難以置信的驚人數字，對吧。我們也在擴大其中許多服務的範圍。以Apple Pay為例。它最初是商店或應用程式中最便捷、最私密、最安全的付款方式。然後，我們將 Apple Pay 移植到了 Safari 瀏覽器。然後，我們推出了點對點服務，並且每季都會在全球各地的新市場推出這項服務。所以我們正在擴大範圍。當然，就像我們過去三年推出的幾項新服務一樣，我們也期待在未來推出我們認為將為用戶帶來巨大價值的新服務。我們對擺在我們面前的機會感到非常興奮。我想你指的是我們在12月季度看到的成長率放緩，而我想你指的是我們9月報告的成長。我認為我需要強調的一點很重要，而且我認為你提出這個問題很有幫助，那就是這種減速的一部分實際上只是對我們因採用新的收入確認準則而進行的免費服務攤銷的重新分類。正如我們在 90 天前解釋的那樣，過去免費服務的攤銷是在產品項下報告的，現在則在服務項下報告。重新分類實際上會稀釋我們的成長率，因為免費服務的攤銷是一個相對穩定的數字，它會應用到我們不斷成長的客戶群。因此，與先前的分類相比，這次重新分類降低了我們的成長率。僅此因素就約佔你所看到的減速的 1/3。我們談到了九月季度27%的成長。重新分類後，成長率約為 24.5%。這樣就解釋了大約三分之一的減速。我認為，造成 24.5% 和 19% 之間差異的原因有 3 個。首先，外匯匯率發揮了作用。我們約 60% 的服務業務都在美國以外；而且如您所知，近幾個月來美元一直在升值。一般來說，我們不會因為外匯波動而經常調整服務價格。第二個因素是中國 App Store 中一個眾所周知的問題。中國App Store對我們來說是一項龐大的業務。我們認為新遊戲審批問題是暫時的，但顯然目前對我們的業務造成了影響。第三，我們看到 AppleCare 的成長速度有所放緩。 AppleCare 在 2018 財年實現了非常強勁的成長，但我們最近實施的分銷覆蓋範圍擴大以及在擴大分銷覆蓋範圍後 Apple 組件渠道的補充，已經開始跟不上 AppleCare 的增長速度了。但總的來說，我們對 19% 的成長非常非常滿意，我們認為公司業務未來將繼續保持良好的成長勢頭。

Just a quick follow-up, Luca. Share repurchases in the December quarter were well below the run rate from the June and September quarters. How much did the weaker quarter play into your ability to carry out the buyback at the same level? And what should we think about as the right run rate going forward?

盧卡，還有一個後續問題。12 月季度的股票回購量遠低於 6 月和 9 月季度的水平。業績疲軟的季度對您維持原有規模的股票回購計畫產生了多大影響？那麼，我們應該認為未來合適的運行率是多少呢？

Well, Katy, we've always said that we're very committed to executing our program. We have done almost $250 billion of repurchases from the beginning of the program. But we've also said that we want to execute the program in an efficient, effective, I will say, disciplined manner. And that takes into account also overall market conditions. So that's what we did during the course of the December quarter. We -- our fundamental view remains the same. We are optimistic about our future, and we think there is great value in our stock. And so we will continue to execute the program. We will continue to report at the end of every quarter. And by the way, when we report our March quarter results, we will also talk about the next step in our capital return program, which is something that we do traditionally in the spring.

凱蒂，我們一直都說，我們會全力以赴地執行我們的計劃。自從該計劃啟動以來，我們已經完成了近2500億美元的股票回購。但我們也說過，我們希望以高效、有效、甚至可以說是嚴謹的方式執行該計劃。而且這其中也考慮到了整體市場狀況。所以，這就是我們在十二月期間所做的工作。我們——我們的基本觀點仍然不變。我們對未來充滿信心，並認為我們的股票具有巨大的價值。因此，我們將繼續執行該計劃。我們將繼續在每個季度末發布報告。順便一提，當我們公佈三月季度業績時，我們還會談到資本回報計劃的下一步，這是我們通常在春季進行的工作。

The next question will come from Steve Milunovich with Wolfe Research.

下一個問題將來自 Wolfe Research 的 Steve Milunovich。

Some have the perception that you priced the new products, the new iPhones too high. What have you learned about price elasticity? And do you feel that perhaps you pushed the envelope a little bit too far and might have to bring that down in the future?

有些人認為你們把新產品，特別是新款 iPhone 的價格定得太高了。你對價格彈性有什麼了解？你是否覺得你做得有點過頭了，將來可能需要有所收斂？

Steve, it's Tim. If you look at what we did this past year, we priced the iPhone XS in the U.S. the same as we priced the iPhone X the year ago. The iPhone XS Max, which was new, was $100 more than the XS. And then we priced the XR right in the middle of where the entry iPhone 8 and entry iPhone 8 Plus have been priced. So it's actually a pretty small difference in the United States compared to last year. However, the foreign exchange issue that Luca spoke of in the call and -- made that difference or amplified that difference in international markets, in particular, the emerging markets, which tended to move much more significantly versus the dollar. And so what we have done in January and in some locations and some products is essentially absorb part or all of the foreign currency move as compared to last year and therefore, get close or perhaps right on the local price from a year ago. So yes, I do think that price is a factor. I think part of it is that, the FX piece. And then secondly, in some markets as I had talked about in my prepared remarks, the subsidy is probably the bigger of the issues in the developed markets. I had mentioned Japan; but also even in this country, even though the subsidy has gone away for a period of time, if you're a customer that your last purchase was a 6s or 6 or in some cases, even a 7, you may have paid $199 for it -- and now in an unbundled world, it's obviously much more than that. And so we are working through those, and we've got a number of actions to address that, including the trade-in and the installment payments, which I had mentioned as well.

史蒂夫，我是提姆。回顧我們去年的做法，我們在美國對 iPhone XS 的定價與一年前對 iPhone X 的定價相同。新款 iPhone XS Max 比 XS 貴 100 美元。然後，我們將 XR 的定價定在了入門級 iPhone 8 和入門級 iPhone 8 Plus 定價的中間位置。所以實際上，與去年相比，美國的差異非常小。然而，盧卡在電話會議中提到的外匯問題，確實造成了國際市場，特別是新興市場（這些市場相對於美元的波動幅度往往更大）的這種差異，或者說加劇了這種差異。因此，我們在 1 月份對某些地區和某些產品所做的，基本上是吸收了與去年相比的部分或全部外匯波動，從而使價格接近甚至可能正好與一年前的當地價格持平。所以，是的，我認為價格是一個因素。我認為部分原因在於特效部分。其次，正如我在事先準備好的演講稿中所提到的，在某些市場，補貼可能是已開發市場中更大的問題。我之前提到過日本；但即使在這個國家，儘管補貼已經取消了一段時間，如果你上次購買的是 iPhone 6s 或 6，或者在某些情況下甚至是 iPhone 7，你可能為此支付了 199 美元——而現在在一個不再捆綁銷售的世界裡，它的價格顯然要高得多。所以我們正在努力解決這些問題，並採取了一系列措施來應對這些問題，包括以舊換新和分期付款，我之前也提到過這些。

I know that you're not giving units going forward, but you said you might make qualitative comments. I was wondering if you have a comment particularly on the ASP on a year-over-year basis.

我知道你以後不會給出具體數值，但你說過你可能會發表一些定性評論。我想問一下您對平均售價（ASP）年比數據有什麼看法。

Well, Steve, we did mention on the call last quarter that the different timing of our phone launches would affect the year-over-year compares. If you remember, our top models, the XS and XS Max shipped during the September quarter, which plays the channel fill and the initial sales in that quarter. While last year, the iPhone X shipped in Q1 in the December quarter but is in the channel fill and the initial sales in the December quarter. So we knew that this would create a difficult compare for Q1 of '19, and this is essentially what happened. It was pretty much in line with our expectations. To give you more color, I would say that the XR is our most popular model, and it's followed by XS Max and then the XS.

史蒂夫，我們在上個季度的電話會議上確實提到過，我們手機發佈時間的差異會影響年比數據。如果你還記得的話，我們的頂級機型 XS 和 XS Max 是在 9 月季度發貨的，這影響了該季度的通路填充率和初始銷售額。去年，iPhone X 在第一季（12 月季度）出貨，但通路供貨和初期銷售都在 12 月季度進行。所以我們知道這將導致 2019 年第一季業績難以與去年同期相比，而實際情況也基本上是如此。這基本上符合我們的預期。為了讓您更清楚地了解情況，我會說 XR 是我們最受歡迎的型號，其次是 XS Max，然後是 XS。

The next question will come from Toni Sacconaghi with Bernstein.

下一個問題將由托尼·薩科納吉和伯恩斯坦提出。

I have one for Luca and one for Tim. Luca, looks like the midpoint of your Q2 revenue guidance implies the steepest Q1 to Q2 sequential decline in iPhone revenues in history. It also implies a year-over-year deceleration in iPhone revenues. And I'm wondering if you can comment about whether that's conservatism, whether you're entering the quarter with a high level of channel inventory, and maybe you can comment explicitly on that, or whether you actually think the macroeconomic conditions are getting worse.

我為盧卡準備了一本，為提姆準備了一本。Luca，看來你第二季營收預期的中點意味著 iPhone 營收將出現史上最大的季度到季度環比下滑。這也意味著 iPhone 收入年增速放緩。我想知道您能否就此發表一下看法，這是否屬於保守主義，您是否以較高的渠道庫存水平進入本季度，或許您可以就此發表一些明確的評論，或者您是否真的認為宏觀經濟狀況正在惡化。

Yes. I mean, 3 questions there. The first one is a question around conservatism. As we always do, when we provide a range, it's a range that we believe we're going to fall within. We've done pretty well with that up until the December quarter, right? I mean, we've been -- we didn't miss in years and years. So that's the idea. It's -- there is that specific level of conservatism. We believe that this is the range where we're going to fall within. On channel inventory, as you know, our historical pattern for iPhone channel inventory is that, typically, we increase inventory in Q1 and we decrease in Q2. And we think this year will be similar, and we've exited the December quarter with levels of inventory that we are comfortable with. So that leaves us with the reality that our iPhone performance in Q1, from a revenue standpoint, was minus 15%. And we expect that the key factors that Tim mentioned during the call affecting iPhone performance in Q1 will also have an effect on Q2 starting with the strong U.S. dollar environment. On a year-over-year basis, the negative impact from currency is going to be about $1.3 billion, so that's about -- a bit more than 2 points versus last year's revenue. And so that obviously plays a role. And the macroeconomic environment, particularly in emerging markets, will continue to be there. On the positive side, we expect that we will continue to grow revenue nicely from the rest of the business, which is not iPhone.

是的。我的意思是，這裡有三個問題。第一個問題與保守主義有關。和以往一樣，當我們給出一個範圍時，我們相信我們最終會落入這個範圍之內。直到去年12月季度，我們在這方面做得都相當不錯，對吧？我的意思是，我們——我們多年來從未失手。這就是我的想法。確實存在某種程度的保守主義。我們認為，我們的價格將落在這個範圍內。如您所知，關於通路庫存，我們以往的 iPhone 通路庫存模式通常是，我們在第一季增加庫存，在第二季減少庫存。我們認為今年情況類似，而且我們在12月季度末的庫存水準也讓我們感到滿意。因此，從營收角度來看，我們第一季的 iPhone 業績為 -15%。我們預計，蒂姆在電話會議中提到的影響 iPhone 第一季業績的關鍵因素，也將對第二季產生影響，首先是美元走強的環境。與去年同期相比，匯率帶來的負面影響約為 13 億美元，比去年的收入高出 2 個百分點多一點。所以這顯然起到了一定的作用。宏觀經濟環境，特別是新興市場的宏觀經濟環境，將持續存在。從積極的方面來看，我們預計 iPhone 以外的其他業務的收入將繼續保持良好成長。

Tim, at your September event, Lisa Jackson, an Apple VP, stated the company needed to "design products to last as long as possible." And Apple's clearly doing that by helping with the battery replacement program, iOS working on an older range of products, et cetera. But I guess, the question is why doesn't that mean that replacement or upgrade cycles for iPhones should continue to extend going forward, in part, because that's almost one of your objectives. And maybe to that end, maybe you can help us understand what iPhone's average replacement cycle might be today and how that may have changed over the last 3 to 5 years. And again, why wouldn't you expect it to elongate over time given some of the aforementioned things?

提姆，在你九月的活動上，蘋果副總裁麗莎傑克森表示，公司需要「設計出盡可能耐用的產品」。而蘋果顯然正在透過電池更換計畫、iOS 系統適配舊款產品等方式來實現這一點。但我想，問題在於，這不就代表 iPhone 的更換或升級週期應該繼續延長嗎？部分原因在於，這幾乎是你們的目標之一。或許，為了達到這個目的，您或許可以幫助我們了解目前 iPhone 的平均更換週期是多少，以及在過去 3 到 5 年裡發生了哪些變化。再說一遍，考慮到前面提到的一些因素，為什麼不期望它會隨著時間的推移而變長呢？

We do design our products to last as long as possible. Some people hold onto those for the life of the product, and some people trade them in. And then that phone is then redistributed to someone else. And so it doesn't necessarily follow that one leads to the other. The cycles -- the average cycle has extended. There's no doubt about that. We've said several times, I think, on this call and before that the upgrades for the quarter were less than we anticipated due to the -- all the reasons that we had mentioned. So where it goes in the future, I don't know, but I'm convinced that making a great product that is high quality, that is the best thing for the customer and we work for the user. And so that's the way that we look at it.

我們設計產品時力求盡可能經久耐用。有些人會一直保留這些物品直到產品報廢，而有些人則會將它們以舊換新。然後，這部手機又被轉交給了其他人。因此，並不一定意味著一個因素會導致另一個因素。週期－平均週期延長了。這點毋庸置疑。我認為，我們在這次電話會議以及之前的電話會議上已經多次說過，由於我們之前提到的所有原因，本季的升級幅度低於我們的預期。所以未來會如何發展，我不知道，但我堅信，打造高品質的優秀產品，對客戶來說才是最好的，我們為用戶服務。所以，我們就是這樣看待這個問題的。

Next question will come from Shannon Cross with Cross Research.

下一個問題將由 Cross Research 的 Shannon Cross 提出。

I wanted to ask about the trajectory of Services gross margin, up about 500 basis points, it appears, year-over-year. You talked a little bit about sequential. But what's driving the improvement? Or will it be volatile as we go through the year depending on quarters and mix? Just whatever color you can give us as we start to forecast this.

我想詢問一下服務業務毛利率的走勢，看起來比去年同期上升了約 500 個基點。你剛才稍微談到了順序。但是是什麼因素推動了這種改善？或者，隨著時間的推移，它會像今年早些時候一樣，因季度和產品組合的不同而出現波動嗎？請您提供任何您能想到的顏色，以便我們開始預測。

Yes, Shannon. I think you've seen that Services gross margins increased on a year-over-year basis by a significant amount. Let me start with sequential because I think it's probably most relevant for us. Sequentially, we increased 170 basis points. It's a business that is growing nicely, so we get good support from our scale. Some of these services are scaling quickly, and so we tend to expand gross margins there. And also, we had favorable mix. As you probably know, we have a very broad portfolio of services. Some of them tend to be accretive to the average gross margin for Services also because of the way we account for them. For example, you know that on the App Store, we book revenue on a net basis, and therefore, the gross margins tend to be accretive. But we also have services that are very successful that are below the average for the Services business. And so depending on how these separate businesses do in the marketplace, we're going to be seeing some level of movement going forward on Services margins. But you've seen that, for the last 12 months, they've gone up nicely, 450 basis points, and sequentially, they've gone up 170 basis points. But I wouldn't draw necessarily a conclusion on how this Services gross margin is going to move over time. We will report, of course, at the end of every quarter. But important to keep in mind, it's a broad portfolio with very different gross margin profiles within the portfolio. It is important for us to grow gross margin dollars. And if at times we grow services that are at a level of gross margins, which is below average, as long as this is good for the customer and as long as we generate gross margin dollars, we're going to be very pleased.

是的，香農。我想您已經注意到，服務業務的毛利率比去年同期大幅成長。讓我先從順序講起，因為我認為這對我們來說可能是最相關的。隨後，我們增加了 170 個基點。這是一個發展勢頭良好的業務，因此我們的規模優勢也為我們提供了良好的支援。有些服務發展迅速，因此我們傾向於提高這些服務的毛利率。而且，我們的產品組合也很有利。您可能已經知道，我們提供的服務範圍非常廣泛。由於我們的會計處理方式，其中一些項目往往會提高服務業務的平均毛利率。例如，您知道在 App Store 上，我們以淨額確認收入，因此毛利率往往是增加的。但我們也有一些服務非常成功，儘管它們在服務業中處於平均水平以下。因此，根據這些獨立業務在市場上的表現，我們將看到服務利潤率在未來出現一定程度的波動。但你已經看到，在過去的 12 個月裡，它們上漲了 450 個基點，環比上漲了 170 個基點。但我不會就服務業務毛利率隨時間推移的走勢妄下結論。當然，我們會在每季末提交報告。但要注意的是，這是一個涵蓋範圍很廣的產品組合，其中各個產品的毛利率水準差異很大。對我們來說，提高毛利率非常重要。如果有時我們發展出的服務的毛利率低於平均水平，只要這對客戶有利，只要我們能產生毛利率，我們就會非常高興。

And then, Tim, can you talk a bit about video? You've signed a myriad of deals. There was announcement about their TV app directly on Samsung. So perhaps when this comes out, you'll be multiplatform. I'm just curious how you view the opportunity in video. And I guess, assuming you can just leverage the costs that you've made already, it should be accretive to margin, I would think.

那麼，提姆，你能談談影片方面的內容嗎？你已經簽署了無數份協議。三星官方直接發布了關於其電視應用程式的公告。所以，或許等它發布的時候，它就會支援多個平台了。我只是好奇您如何看待影片中的這個機會。我想，假設你能利用已經產生的成本，這應該會提高利潤率。

Yes. Shannon, we see huge changes in customer behavior taking place now, and we think that it will accelerate as the year goes by to sort of the breakdown of the cable bundle that's been talked about for years. And I think that it'll likely take place at a much faster pace this year. And so we're going to participate in that in a variety of ways. One of those is through Apple TV, and you're well familiar with that product. The second way is the -- is AirPlay 2, which we have -- as you just pointed out, we have support on a number of different third-party TVs. And we're excited about that. It makes the experience in the living room with people using our products even better. We think that people are really going to like that. Another way is, of course, the -- all the third-party video subscriptions that are on the store. We're participating in this today. And I would guess that, that's going to accelerate into the future as the bundle breaks down and people begin to buy likely multiple services in place of their current cable bundle. And then finally, original content, where -- we will participate in the original content world. We have signed a multiyear partnership with Oprah. But today, I'm not really ready to extend that conversation beyond that point. We've hired some great people that I have a super amount of confidence in, and they're working really hard. And we'll have something to say more on that later.

是的。香農，我們看到消費者的行為正在發生巨大的變化，我們認為隨著時間的推移，這種變化將會加速，最終導致多年來人們一直在談論的有線電視套餐的瓦解。而且我認為今年發生的速度可能會更快。因此，我們將以多種方式參與其中。其中一個方法是透過 Apple TV，而你對這款產品應該非常熟悉。第二種方法是 AirPlay 2，正如您剛才指出的，我們支援許多不同的第三方電視。我們對此感到興奮。它讓人們在客廳使用我們產品的體驗更加美好。我們認為人們一定會非常喜歡它。當然，還有一種方法，那就是——商店裡所有第三方影片訂閱服務。我們今天也參與其中。我猜測，隨著捆綁套餐的拆分，人們開始購買多種服務來取代目前的有線電視套餐，這種情況未來將會加速發展。最後，我們將參與原創內容領域，也就是原創內容領域。我們已與歐普拉簽署了一份多年合作協議。但今天，我還沒準備好將這個主題繼續深入探討。我們聘請了一些非常優秀的人才，我對他們充滿信心，他們工作也非常努力。稍後我們會就此再做更多說明。

The next question will come from Walter Piecyk with BTIG.

下一個問題將來自 BTIG 的 Walter Piecyk。

I just have a question on the free services. Can you just describe how the math works on that? Is it that the free services are noncash revenue that's getting booked in the services revenue with no cost and the costs come out of products? Can you just run us through what the current state is versus how you were accounting for that before?

我有一個關於免費服務的問題。能簡單解釋一下其中的數學原理嗎？是不是說，免費服務屬於非現金收入，計入服務收入而沒有成本，成本則從產品中扣除？能否簡單介紹一下目前的情況與之前的處理方法有何不同？

Yes. In essence, when we sell a product at a certain price, we make an assumption. We estimate the value that can be associated to providing free service. In our case, it's providing Maps services, providing Siri and providing free iCloud to all the customers that purchase our product. And so we calculate an estimated value. That value gets deferred and gets amortized over the estimated period of time that we deliver the free services. In the past, that deferral and the subsequent amortization was reported under products. Now in connection with the new revenue recognition standard, we are reclassifying essentially that amortization from products revenue to services revenue. So total revenue has not changed. We just report that estimated value under the services category. We also reclassify the cost that we need to incur to provide those services. So the gross margin rate of each services is clearly significantly dilutive to the overall Services margin. I hope I've answered that.

是的。從本質上講，當我們以某個價格出售產品時，我們正在做出某種假設。我們評估了提供免費服務所能帶來的價值。就我們而言，這意味著提供地圖服務、Siri 服務，以及為所有購買我們產品的客戶提供免費的 iCloud 服務。因此，我們計算出一個估計值。該價值將被遞延，並在我們提供免費服務的預計時間內攤提。過去，該遞延和隨後的攤銷是在產品項下報告的。現在，根據新的收入確認準則，我們將把這筆攤銷從產品收入重新分類為服務收入。因此，總收入沒有變動。我們只需將該估值報告在服務類別下即可。我們也對提供這些服務所需產生的成本進行了重新分類。因此，每項服務的毛利率顯然會對整體服務利潤率產生顯著的稀釋效果。希望我的回答能幫助你。

Yes, you're right. So it's in mixed services gross margin. Got it. And then my other -- my second question is just when you think about growth in Services, you have selling more to existing paid subscription customers or it's the 300 million going to 0.5 billion. If you can just talk, at a high level, as far as when you look at growth going forward, is it about -- what is the mix in terms of selling more to existing users, getting new users or -- and maybe some of the individual services that you see the biggest growth opportunity?

是的，你說得對。所以它屬於混合服務毛利率。知道了。我的第二個問題是，當您考慮服務領域的成長時，您是指向現有付費訂閱客戶銷售更多服務，還是指從 3 億成長到 5 億。如果可以的話，請您從宏觀層面談談，展望未來的成長，您認為成長的重點是——向現有用戶銷售更多產品，獲取新用戶，還是——以及您認為哪些特定服務具有最大的成長機會？

Yes. I mean, as I said, I mean, essentially, what -- the services -- I said services too is our installed base. So the first driver is growing the installed base. Installed base has grown nicely over the last several years. We've added 100 million in the last 12 months alone. So that's the first step. Then within that installed base, of course, we want to make sure that there are more people that are so interested in our services that, in addition to transacting on those services on a free basis, they also are interested in paying for those services. And I mentioned that the percentage of paid accounts has increased strong double digits. So we want to continue to do that. We want to make it easier for our customers to actually use our services, and so we are accepting more and more payment methods around the world. And clearly, as you said, the idea of adding new services is very important to us. During the last 3 years, we've added Apple Pay, which has been incredibly successful and is a wonderful customer experience. We've added Apple Music, where we now have more than 50 million paid subscribers and continues to grow very nicely. And we've added a very useful service to our developers. We provide an advertising service for developers on the App Store. The way we've added these services in the past, obviously, we're also very interested in adding new services that can provide great value to our customers in the future. And we don't want to get into product announcements here, but obviously, that is part of our strategy.

是的。我的意思是，正如我所說，本質上，服務——我說過服務也是我們的安裝基礎。因此，首要驅動因素是擴大用戶基數。過去幾年，用戶基數成長良好。光是過去12個月裡，我們就新增了1億。這是第一步。當然，在現有用戶群中，我們希望確保有更多的人對我們的服務感興趣，除了免費使用這些服務之外，他們也願意為這些服務付費。我還提到，付費帳戶的比例實現了兩位數的強勁成長。所以我們希望繼續這樣做。我們希望讓客戶更容易使用我們的服務，因此我們正在接受世界各地越來越多的支付方式。正如您所說，增加新服務對我們來說非常重要。在過去三年裡，我們增加了 Apple Pay，它取得了巨大的成功，並帶來了絕佳的客戶體驗。我們新增了 Apple Music，目前擁有超過 5,000 萬付費用戶，且用戶數量仍在持續穩定成長。我們還為開發人員增加了一項非常有用的服務。我們為App Store上的開發者提供廣告服務。顯然，就像我們過去添加這些服務的方式一樣，我們也對未來添加能夠為客戶帶來巨大價值的新服務非常感興趣。我們不想在這裡透露產品訊息，但很顯然，這是我們策略的一部分。

Thank you all. A replay of today's call will be available for 2 weeks on Apple Podcasts, as a webcast on apple.com/investor and via telephone. And the numbers for the telephone replay are (888) 203-1112 or (719) 457-0820. Please enter confirmation code 2358120. These replays will be available by approximately 5 p.m. Pacific Time today.

謝謝大家。今天的電話會議錄音將在 Apple Podcasts 上提供兩週的回放，也可以透過 apple.com/investor 上的網路直播和電話收聽。電話重播號碼為 (888) 203-1112 或 (719) 457-0820。請輸入確認碼 2358120。這些回放影片大約會在下午5點前提供。今天太平洋時間。

Members of the press with additional questions can contact Kristin Huguet at (408) 974-2414. Financial analysts can contact Matt Blake or me with additional questions. Matt is at (408) 974-7406, and I'm at (408) 974-5420. And thanks again for joining us.

媒體會員如有其他疑問，可致電 (408) 974-2414 聯絡 Kristin Huguet。金融分析師如有其他疑問，可以聯絡 Matt Blake 或我。Matt 的電話號碼是 (408) 974-7406，我的電話號碼是 (408) 974-5420。再次感謝您的參與。

That does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for your participation.

今天的會議就到此結束。感謝您的參與。