蘋果 (AAPL) 2018 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Apple Inc. Fourth Quarter Fiscal Year 2018 Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is being recorded. At this time, for opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to Nancy Paxton, Senior Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

您好，歡迎來到蘋果公司。2018財年第四季財報電話會議。今天的通話將會被錄音。此時此刻，我謹將電話轉交給投資人關係資深總監南希‧帕克斯頓，請她致開幕詞並作介紹。請繼續。

Thank you. Good afternoon, and thanks to everyone for joining us. Speaking first today is Apple's CEO, Tim Cook; and he'll be followed by CFO, Luca Maestri. After that, we'll open the call to questions from analysts.

謝謝。下午好，感謝各位的到來。今天首先發言的是蘋果執行長提姆·庫克；隨後是財務長盧卡·馬埃斯特里。之後，我們將開放電話會議，接受分析師的提問。

Please note that some of the information you'll hear during our discussion today will consist of forward-looking statements, including, without limitation, those regarding revenue, gross margin, operating expenses, other income and expense, taxes, capital allocation and future business outlook. Actual results or trends could differ materially from our forecast.

請注意，您今天在討論中聽到的一些資訊將包含前瞻性陳述，包括但不限於有關收入、毛利率、營運費用、其他收入和支出、稅收、資本配置和未來業務展望的陳述。實際結果或趨勢可能與我們的預測有重大差異。

For more information, please refer to the risk factors discussed in Apple's most recently filed periodic reports on Form 10-K and Form 10-Q and the Form 8-K filed with the SEC today, along with the associated press release. Apple assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements or information which speak as of their respective dates.

有關更多信息，請參閱蘋果公司最近提交的 10-K 表格和 10-Q 表格定期報告以及今天提交給美國證券交易委員會的 8-K 表格中討論的風險因素，以及相關的新聞稿。蘋果公司不承擔更新任何前瞻性聲明或資訊的義務，這些聲明或資訊僅代表其各自發布之日的情況。

I'd now like to turn the call over to Tim for introductory remarks.

現在我把電話交給提姆，請他做開場白。

Thank you, Nancy. Good afternoon, everyone, and thanks for joining us. I just got back from Brooklyn, where we marked our fourth major launch at the end of the year. In addition to being a great time, it put an exclamation point at the end of a remarkable fiscal 2018.

謝謝你，南希。各位下午好，感謝各位的參與。我剛從布魯克林回來，我們在那裡舉行了年底的第四次重大發布會。除了帶來美好的時光，它也為精彩的 2018 財年畫下了圓滿的句點。

This year, we shipped our 2 billionth iOS device, celebrated the 10th anniversary of the App Store and achieved the strongest revenue and earnings in Apple's history. In fiscal year '18, our revenue grew by $36.4 billion. That's the equivalent of a Fortune 100 company in a single year. And we're capping all that off with our best September quarter ever.

今年，我們出貨了第 20 億台 iOS 設備，慶祝了 App Store 成立 10 週年，並實現了蘋果公司歷史上最高的收入和利潤。2018 財年，我們的營收成長了 364 億美元。這相當於一家財富 100 強公司一年的業績。最後，我們以有史以來最好的九月季度業績為這一切畫上了圓滿的句號。

Revenue was $62.9 billion, ahead of our expectations. That's an increase of 20% over last year and our highest growth rate in 3 years. We also generated record Q4 earnings with 41% year-over-year growth in EPS. Record results from iPhone, Services and Wearables drove our momentum, and we produced strong double-digit revenue growth in all of our geographic segments.

營收達629億美元，超乎預期。這比去年增長了 20%，也是我們 3 年來最高的成長率。我們第四季也創下了獲利紀錄，每股收益年增 41%。iPhone、服務和穿戴式裝置業務的創紀錄業績推動了我們的發展勢頭，我們在所有地區業務板塊都實現了強勁的兩位數收入成長。

It was a big year and a big quarter for iPhone. Q4 revenue was up 29% over last year, an increase of over $8 billion to a new September quarter record, fueled by continued momentum for iPhone 8, 8 Plus and X and the very successful launch of iPhone Xs and iPhone Xs Max. These latest devices are our most advanced iPhones ever with the industry's first 7-nanometer A12 Bionic chip with an Apple-designed 8-core Neural Engine capable of executing an astounding 5 trillion operations per second.

對iPhone來說，這是意義重大的一年，也是一個重要的季度。第四季營收比去年同期成長 29%，增加超過 80 億美元，創下 9 月季度新紀錄，這主要得益於 iPhone 8、8 Plus 和 X 的持續成長勢頭，以及 iPhone Xs 和 iPhone Xs Max 的成功上市。這些最新設備是我們迄今為止最先進的 iPhone，搭載了業界首款 7 奈米 A12 仿生晶片，配備蘋果設計的 8 核神經網路引擎，每秒可執行驚人的 5 兆次運算。

The A12 Bionic is many years in the making and a huge technological leap forward. It sets the iPhone experience far apart from the competition using real-time machine learning to transform the way we experience photo, gaming, augmented reality and more. It makes full use of the dual-camera system that shoots portrait mode photos with Smart HDR and dynamic depth of field, and Face ID is even faster.

A12仿生晶片歷經多年研發，是科技的一大躍進。它利用即時機器學習技術，徹底改變了我們體驗照片、遊戲、擴增實境等的方式，使 iPhone 的體驗與競爭對手截然不同。它充分利用了雙鏡頭系統，可以拍攝具有智慧 HDR 和動態景深的人像模式照片，而且人臉辨識速度更快。

The response has been powerful. As one reviewer put it, "iPhone Xs and Xs Max are the perfect blend of design and craftsmanship as well as seamlessly intuitive user experience." We're not done yet. Just last week, we began shipping iPhone XR, bringing the latest iPhone breakthroughs to even more users. With an all-screen glass and aluminum design and the most advanced LCD in a smartphone, the product reviews had been overwhelmingly positive.

反應非常強烈。正如一位評測者所說，「iPhone Xs 和 Xs Max 完美融合了設計、工藝以及流暢直觀的用戶體驗。」我們還沒說完。就在上週，我們開始販售 iPhone XR，讓更多用戶體驗 iPhone 的最新突破。這款手機採用全屏玻璃和鋁合金設計，並搭載智慧型手機中最先進的液晶顯示屏，產品評價幾乎全是好評。

iOS 12 has gotten off to an incredible start. It's been installed on more systems in its first month than any version of iOS ever. iOS 12 is delivering system-wide performance enhancements, Siri Shortcuts and new tools to help people reduce interruption and manage screen time for themselves and their kids.

iOS 12 的開局非常精彩。在發布後的第一個月，它的安裝量就超過了以往任何版本的 iOS。iOS 12 帶來了系統級的效能提升、Siri 快捷指令和新工具，幫助人們減少干擾，並管理自己和孩子的螢幕使用時間。

Siri Shortcuts, in particular, is already deeply integrated with some of the most popular apps out there. Whether you're tracking your workouts or rushing to catch a flight, you can be sure all of your most relevant apps are working together with Siri in the driver seat.

特別是 Siri Shortcuts，它已經與一些最受歡迎的應用程式深度整合。無論您是在追蹤鍛鍊情況還是趕著去搭乘飛機，您都可以放心，所有最相關的應用程式都會在 Siri 的引導下協同工作。

iOS 12 also features ARKit 2, a major upgrade to our augmented reality engine. ARKit 2 makes possible simultaneous multi-user experiences and real-world object incorporation. Our developer community is really running with this technology. From gaming to shopping, we're seeing great new use cases emerge. iOS devices deliver the best AR experiences of any products in the market today, and with the announcement of our new iPad Pro this week, we've made that gap even wider.

iOS 12 也採用了 ARKit 2，這是我們擴增實境引擎的重大升級。ARKit 2 實現了多人同時體驗和現實世界物件融合。我們的開發者社群正在大力推廣這項技術。從遊戲到購物，我們看到了許多很棒的新應用場景。iOS 裝置提供了目前市場上所有產品中最好的 AR 體驗，而隨著本週我們發布新款 iPad Pro，我們進一步拉大了這一差距。

More powerful than the vast majority of PC laptops, the new iPad Pro is unrivaled in its versatility and performance. And paired with the beautifully refined Apple Pencil and a new streamlined full-size smart keyboard, iPad Pro will extend its lead as the ultimate creativity and productivity device. And finally, just this week, we delivered the hotly anticipated group FaceTime functionality to all FaceTime-enabled devices.

新款 iPad Pro 的效能比絕大多數 PC 筆記型電腦都要強大，其多功能性和效能無與倫比。搭配設計精美的 Apple Pencil 和全新流線型全尺寸智慧鍵盤，iPad Pro 將進一步鞏固其作為終極創意和生產力設備的領先地位。最後，就在本週，我們向所有支援 FaceTime 的裝置推出了備受期待的 FaceTime 群組功能。

For Services, it was our best quarter ever with revenue at $10 billion. Excluding the impact of a favorable onetime accounting adjustment of $640 million a year ago, our Services growth was 27%.

服務業務方面，這是我們有史以來最好的季度，收入達到 100 億美元。剔除一年前一次性有利的 6.4 億美元會計調整的影響，我們的服務業務成長了 27%。

We set new Q4 records in all of our geographic segments and new all-time revenue records for the App Store, cloud services, AppleCare, Apple Music and Apple Pay. We also continued to see strong growth in paid subscriptions, reaching over 330 million in our ecosystem.

我們在所有地理區域都創下了第四季新紀錄，App Store、雲端服務、AppleCare、Apple Music 和 Apple Pay 的營收也創下了歷史新高。付費訂閱用戶也持續強勁成長，在我們的生態系統中已超過 3.3 億。

I want to spotlight the exceptional performance of Apple Pay, which is, by far, the #1 mobile contactless payment service worldwide. Transaction volume tripled year-over-year, and to put that into perspective, Apple Pay generated significantly more transactions than even PayPal mobile with over 4x the growth rate.

我想重點介紹 Apple Pay 的卓越表現，它迄今為止是全球排名第一的行動非接觸式支付服務。交易量比去年同期成長了兩倍，為了更直觀地說明這一點，Apple Pay 的交易量甚至超過了 PayPal 行動支付，成長率更是超過其 4 倍。

As a testament to accelerating U.S. growth, Costco completed the rollout of Apple Pay to over 500 U.S. warehouses last quarter, while Neiman Marcus is now accepting Apple Pay at over 40 stores across the country. With these additions, 71 of the top 100 merchants and 60% of all U.S. retail locations support Apple Pay.

為了證明美國經濟成長的加速，Costco 上個季度完成了在美國 500 多家門市推廣 Apple Pay 的工作，而 Neiman Marcus 目前在全國 40 多家門市接受 Apple Pay 付款。加上這些新增商戶，前 100 名的商家有 71 家以及美國所有零售店的 60% 都支援 Apple Pay。

We continue to invest in our strategy to replace the wallet with the recent launch of student ID passes at several major U.S. universities. And 10 months following its launch, Apple Pay Cash is the highest-rated mobile peer-to-peer service by Consumer Reports based on exceptional payment authentication and data privacy.

我們持續投資我們的策略，以取代錢包，最近美國幾所主要大學推出了學生證。在推出 10 個月後，Apple Pay Cash 憑藉其卓越的支付認證和資料隱私保護，被《消費者報告》評為評分最高的行動點對點服務。

We set an all-time quarterly record for Mac revenue, thanks to strong performance in MacBook Pro and the impact of the back-to-school season. In September, we delivered macOS Mojave, bringing powerful new features to Mac like dark mode, stack and a completely redesigned Mac App Store. Considered alongside the release of iOS 12, watchOS 5 and a new tvOS, macOS Mojave tells a powerful story of the seamless integration of world-class hardware, software and services that define the Apple ecosystem.

由於 MacBook Pro 的強勁表​​現以及返校季的影響，我們創下了 Mac 產品季度收入的歷史新高。9 月，我們發布了 macOS Mojave，為 Mac 帶來了強大的新功能，例如深色模式、堆疊功能以及完全重新設計的 Mac App Store。與 iOS 12、watchOS 5 和新的 tvOS 的發布一起來看，macOS Mojave 講述了一個強有力的故事，即世界一流的硬體、軟體和服務如何無縫集成，從而定義了 Apple 生態系統。

As I mentioned at the beginning of the call, earlier this week, we announced exciting updates to the Mac lineup. The all-new MacBook Air brings a stunning Retina display, Touch ID, the latest processors and an even more portable design to the world's most beloved notebook. We also unveiled the biggest update ever to Mac mini, the small yet muscular desktop that powers everything from the music and sound effects of Broadway shows to the developers who build some of the most popular apps in the App Store. The new Mac mini boasts an amazing 5x faster performance than before.

正如我在電話會議開始時提到的，本週早些時候，我們宣布了 Mac 產品線的令人興奮的更新。全新 MacBook Air 為這款全球最受歡迎的筆記型電腦帶來了驚人的 Retina 顯示器、觸控 ID、最新處理器以及更便攜的設計。我們還發布了 Mac mini 有史以來最大的更新，這款小巧而強大的桌上型電腦為從百老匯演出的音樂和音效到 App Store 中一些最受歡迎應用程式的開發者提供動力。新款 Mac mini 的效能比以往快了驚人的 5 倍。

With revenue growth over 50%, it was another record quarter for Wearables, which includes Apple Watch, AirPods and Beats products. With the highest customer satisfaction in the industry, Apple Watch has become an essential part of people's lives. The customer response to the Apple Watch Series 4 has been overwhelmingly positive, driven by its all-new design, larger display, faster performance, fall detection, enhanced cellular reception and electrical heart sensor.

穿戴式裝置（包括 Apple Watch、AirPods 和 Beats 產品）的營收成長超過 50%，又創下了一個創紀錄的季度。憑藉著業界最高的客戶滿意度，Apple Watch 已成為人們生活中不可或缺的一部分。Apple Watch Series 4 獲得了顧客的一致好評，這主要得益於其全新的設計、更大的顯示器、更快的效能、跌倒偵測、增強的蜂窩網路接收和電極式心率感測器。

Later this year, the ECG app will be available to Apple Watch Series 4 customers in the U.S., giving them the ability to take an electrocardiogram anytime right from their wrists. And for U.S. customers with Apple Watch Series 1 and later, watchOS will soon enable periodic checks for irregular heart rhythms that may be suggestive of AFib. These are unprecedented and potentially life changing features, showing how Apple Watch is not only an indispensable communication and fitness companion but also an intelligent guardian for your health. More broadly, we see this as just one further example of the kind of contribution we can make in the health space, and we look forward to making more in the future.

今年晚些時候，美國地區的 Apple Watch Series 4 用戶將可以使用心電圖應用程序，讓他們可以隨時從手腕上進行心電圖檢查。對於擁有 Apple Watch Series 1 及更新機型的美國用戶，watchOS 很快就會啟用定期檢查功能，以檢測可能提示心房顫動的心律不整。這些都是前所未有的、可能改變人生的功能，顯示 Apple Watch 不僅是不可或缺的通訊和健身伴侶，也是您健康的智慧守護者。更廣泛地說，我們認為這只是我們在醫療健康領域能夠做出貢獻的另一個例子，我們期待未來能做出更多貢獻。

We are proud to bring HomePod to new customers. I was in Spain last week as HomePod became available there and in Mexico. HomePod delivers the highest fidelity audio quality, working together with an Apple Music subscription to stream over 50 million songs into any room in your home.

我們很榮幸能將HomePod帶給更多新用戶。上週我去了西班牙，因為HomePod在西班牙和墨西哥上市了。HomePod 可提供最高保真度的音訊質量，配合 Apple Music 訂閱服務，可將超過 5000 萬首歌曲流式傳輸到您家中的任何房間。

Our retail team posted record Q4 results to conclude their biggest year ever. They are transforming our stores into places where customers come to connect, learn and be inspired together with people from their community. Our Today at Apple sessions are a terrific example of what that looks like in practice. We hosted over 250,000 Today at Apple sessions this quarter, connecting aspiring creators with local photographers, illustrators and other experts who can help them get the most out of their devices. Apple Stores also hosted 74,000 kids at Apple Camp.

我們的零售團隊在第四季業績創歷史新高，為他們有史以來業績最好的一年畫上了圓滿的句號。他們正在將我們的門市改造成顧客可以與社區成員交流、學習和獲得啟發的地方。我們的「Today at Apple」系列課程就是這方面實踐的絕佳例證。本季我們舉辦了超過 25 萬場 Today at Apple 活動，將有抱負的創作者與當地的攝影師、插畫家和其他專家聯繫起來，幫助他們充分利用設備。蘋果商店還舉辦了蘋果夏令營，共有 74,000 名兒童參加。

The relationship Apple has with our customers is about more than just making a purchase. With the recent addition of beautiful new stores in Italy, Japan, China and in just a few weeks, Thailand, we will have 506 stores where we can further those relationships, almost half of which are outside United States.

蘋果與顧客的關係遠不止於購物。隨著最近在義大利、日本、中國以及幾週後即將開業的泰國新增了多家漂亮的門市，我們將擁有 506 家門市，可以進一步加強這些關係，其中近一半位於美國以外。

Before I turn the call over to Luca, I'd like to touch on 2 items that may not show up in our financial statement but are just as integral to Apple's mission and our commitment to making the world a better place.

在將電話交給盧卡之前，我想談談兩件事，這兩件事可能不會出現在我們的財務報表中，但對於蘋果的使命以及我們致力於讓世界變得更美好的承諾來說，它們同樣至關重要。

First, education. More than 5,000 schools, community colleges and technical colleges worldwide are now using Everyone Can Code, our free coding curriculum. Ideas, creativity and passion for technology's potential aren't limited by ZIP code or country, and we don't think opportunity should be either. We're also excited that educators in more than 350 schools around the world have started working with Everyone Can Create, the free collection of tools and project guides we introduced this spring designed to help unleash kids' creativity throughout their school day with the help of iPad.

首先是教育。目前全球已有超過 5000 所學校、社區學院和技術學院正在使用我們的免費程式設計課程「人人都能編程」。創意、創造力和對科技潛力的熱情不受郵遞區號或國家的限制，我們認為機會也不應該受到限制。我們也很高興地看到，全球超過 350 所學校的教育工作者已經開始使用「人人皆可創造」（Everyone Can Create）——我們今年春天推出的免費工具和專案指南合集，旨在藉助 iPad 幫助孩子們在整個上學日釋放創造力。

Next is the environment. This was a milestone year for Apple's commitment to our planet. In April, we announced that 100% of our global operations are powered by renewable energy. We also made progress in doing the same in our supply chain. And just this week, we announced that the enclosures of new products like MacBook Air and iPad Pro will be made from 100% recycled aluminum, a strong, durable and beautiful new alloy designed by Apple.

其次是環境。對蘋果而言，今年是其致力於保護地球的里程碑之年。今年四月，我們宣布我們全球營運100%使用再生能源。我們在供應鏈方面也取得了同樣的進展。就在本週，我們宣布 MacBook Air 和 iPad Pro 等新產品的外殼將採用 100% 回收鋁製成，這是一種由蘋果設計的堅固、耐用且美觀的新型合金。

This is a great example of how a commitment to do right on the issues that matter can drive once unimaginable innovation, new ways of approaching old problems and beautiful solutions that set us apart. I'd like to thank all of our employees, customers, developers and business partners for helping us deliver outstanding results across our fiscal 2018. We are headed into the holidays with our strongest product lineup ever, and we could not be more bullish about Apple's future.

這正是對重要問題做出正確承諾如何推動曾經難以想像的創新、解決舊問題的新方法以及使我們脫穎而出的出色解決方案的絕佳例證。我要感謝我們所有的員工、客戶、開發人員和業務合作夥伴，感謝他們幫助我們在 2018 財年取得了卓越的成績。我們即將迎來假期季節，並擁有史上最強大的產品陣容，我們對蘋果的未來充滿信心。

And now Luca has more details to share with you on the September quarter. Luca?

現在，盧卡將與大家分享更多關於九月份季度的詳細資訊。盧卡？

Thank you, Tim. Good afternoon, everyone. We are extremely pleased to report record results for our September quarter, which capped a tremendously successful fiscal 2018, a year in which we saw double-digit revenue growth in every geographic segment and established new revenue and earnings records in every single quarter.

謝謝你，提姆。大家下午好。我們非常高興地宣布，我們在 9 月的季度業績創下歷史新高，這為極其成功的 2018 財年畫上了圓滿的句號。在這一年中，我們在每個地區都實現了兩位數的收入成長，並且在每個季度都創造了新的收入和獲利記錄。

Revenue in the fourth quarter was $62.9 billion, up 20% and more than $10 billion over last year with strong double-digit growth in each of our geographic segments and record Q4 revenue in the Americas, in Europe, Japan and rest of Asia Pacific. In fact, we set new revenue records in almost every market we track with especially strong growth in Germany, Italy, Sweden, Switzerland, Japan and Korea, all major markets where revenue growth was 25% or higher. We also set new fourth quarter revenue records for iPhone and Wearables and new all-time records for Services and Mac.

第四季營收達 629 億美元，年增 20%，比去年同期成長超過 100 億美元，各地區業務均實現強勁的兩位數成長，美洲、歐洲、日本和亞太其他地區第四季營收均創歷史新高。事實上，我們在幾乎所有追蹤的市場都創下了新的收入記錄，尤其是在德國、義大利、瑞典、瑞士、日本和韓國等主要市場實現了強勁成長，這些市場的營收成長率均達到 25% 或更高。我們也創下了 iPhone 和穿戴式裝置第四季營收的新紀錄，以及服務和 Mac 的歷史新紀錄。

Gross margin was 38.3%, flat sequentially in line with our expectations as leverage from higher revenue offset seasonal transition costs. We set new September quarter records for net income, EPS and cash flow from operations. Net income was $14.1 billion, up $3.4 billion or 32% over last year. Diluted earnings per share were $2.91, up 41%. Cash flow from operations was $19.5 billion, up $3.8 billion from a year ago.

毛利率為 38.3%，與上一季持平，符合我們的預期，因為收入成長帶來的槓桿效應抵消了季節性過渡成本。我們9月季度的淨利、每股盈餘和經營活動現金流均創下新紀錄。淨利為141億美元，比去年增加34億美元，增幅達32%。稀釋後每股收益為 2.91 美元，成長 41%。經營活動產生的現金流量為 195 億美元，比去年同期增加 38 億美元。

iPhone revenue grew 29% with growth of more than 20% in every geographic segment. iPhone ASP was $793 compared to $618 a year ago, driven by strong performance of iPhone X, 8 and 8 Plus as well as the successful launch of iPhone Xs and Xs Max in the September quarter this year, while we launched iPhone X in the December quarter last year.

iPhone 營收成長了 29%，其中各個地區市場的成長率均超過 20%。iPhone 的平均售價為 793 美元，而一年前為 618 美元，這主要得益於 iPhone X、8 和 8 Plus 的強勁表​​現，以及今年 9 月季度 iPhone Xs 和 Xs Max 的成功發布（去年 12 月季度我們發布了 iPhone X）。

We sold 46.9 million iPhones during the quarter with growth of 20% or more in several markets, including Japan, Australia, New Zealand, Sweden, Norway, Chile and Vietnam. Customer satisfaction with iPhone continues to be outstanding and is the highest in the industry. The latest survey of U.S. consumers from 451 Research indicates customer satisfaction of 98% for iPhone X, 8 and 8 Plus combined. And among business buyers who plan to purchase smartphones in the December quarter, 80% plan to purchase iPhones.

本季我們售出了 4,690 萬部 iPhone，其中日本、澳洲、紐西蘭、瑞典、挪威、智利和越南等多個市場的銷量成長了 20% 或更多。iPhone 的用戶滿意度持續保持優異，位居業界最高水準。451 Research 最新對美國消費者的調查顯示，iPhone X、8 和 8 Plus 的綜合客戶滿意度為 98%。在計劃於 12 月季度購買智慧型手機的企業買家中，80% 的人計劃購買 iPhone。

Turning to Services. It was our best quarter ever in total and virtually in every market around the world with revenue of $10 billion. A year ago, we had a onetime $640 million favorable impact to Services revenue due to an accounting adjustment, and taking that into account, our Services growth in Q4 this year was 27%. As Tim mentioned, we reached new all-time quarterly revenue records for many Services categories, and we are well on our way to achieve our goal to double our fiscal 2016 Services revenue by 2020.

轉到服務部分。這是該公司有史以來業績最好的一個季度，在全球幾乎所有市場都取得了不錯的成績，收入達到 100 億美元。一年前，由於會計調整，我們的服務收入獲得了一次性 6.4 億美元的有利影響，考慮到這一點，我們今年第四季的服務收入增加了 27%。正如蒂姆所提到的，我們在許多服務類別中都創下了新的季度收入記錄，我們正朝著實現目標穩步前進，力爭在 2020 年將 2016 財年服務收入翻一番。

We now have over 330 million paid subscriptions on our platform, an increase of over 50% versus a year ago. We are very pleased not only with the growth but also with the breadth of our subscription business. In fact, 30,000 third-party subscription apps are available in the App Store today, and the largest of them all represents less than 0.3% of our total Services revenue.

我們平台上的付費訂閱用戶目前已超過 3.3 億，比一年前成長了 50% 以上。我們不僅對訂閱業務的成長感到非常滿意，而且對訂閱業務的覆蓋範圍也感到非常滿意。事實上，目前 App Store 中有 30,000 個第三方訂閱應用，其中規模最大的應用程式僅占我們服務總收入的不到 0.3%。

Next, I'd like to talk about the Mac. We saw great response to our new MacBook Pro models that we launched in July with strong double-digit revenue growth driving an all-time quarterly record for Mac revenue. We were especially pleased with Mac momentum in emerging markets with strong growth in Latin America, in India, the Middle East and Africa and Central and Eastern Europe. At over 100 million units, our active installed base of Macs is at an all-time high, and the majority of customer purchasing Macs in the September quarter were new to Mac.

接下來，我想談談Mac電腦。我們在 7 月推出的新款 MacBook Pro 機型獲得了巨大的市場反響，實現了強勁的兩位數收入增長，創下了 Mac 季度收入的歷史新高。我們尤其對Mac在新興市場的發展勢頭感到滿意，尤其是在拉丁美洲、印度、中東和非洲以及中歐和東歐等地區實現了強勁成長。我們的 Mac 活躍裝置裝置已超過 1 億台，達到歷史最高水平，而且在 9 月購買 Mac 的客戶中，大多數都是 Mac 的新用戶。

We sold 9.7 million iPads during the quarter, gaining share in nearly every market we track based on the latest estimates from IDC. We generated iPad growth in a number of key regions around the world, including Latin America, Europe, Japan, India and South Asia. Among customers around the world purchasing iPads during the quarter, nearly half were new to iPad, and our active installed base of iPads reached a new all-time high.

本季我們售出了 970 萬台 iPad，根據 IDC 的最新估計，在我們追蹤的幾乎所有市場中都獲得了市場份額。我們在包括拉丁美洲、歐洲、日本、印度和南亞在內的全球多個關鍵地區實現了 iPad 的成長。本季全球購買 iPad 的客戶中，近一半是 iPad 新用戶，我們的 iPad 活躍裝置量也達到了歷史新高。

NPD indicates that iPad had 58% share of the U.S. tablet market in the September quarter, up from 54% share a year ago. And the most recent consumer survey from 451 Research measured iPad customer satisfaction ratings of 96% for both iPad and iPad Pro. And among business customers who plan to purchase tablets in the December quarter, 74% plan to purchase iPads.

NPD數據顯示，iPad在9月季度佔據了美國平板電腦市場58%的份額，高於去年同期的54%。451 Research 的最新消費者調查顯示，iPad 和 iPad Pro 的使用者滿意度均為 96%。在計劃於 12 月季度購買平板電腦的企業客戶中，74% 的人計劃購買 iPad。

Other products revenue grew 31% to a new September quarter record with an increase of over $1 billion compared to a year ago, thanks to Wearables growth of over 50% and the strong performance of Apple TV in addition to the introduction of HomePod earlier this year.

其他產品營收成長 31%，創下 9 月季度新紀錄，比去年同期成長超過 10 億美元，這得益於穿戴式裝置超過 50% 的成長、Apple TV 的強勁表​​現以及今年稍早推出的 HomePod。

As we look back across fiscal 2018, we have made great progress in the enterprise market, where iOS is transforming how business gets done across multiple industries. In fact, over 450 airlines and 47 of the top 50 around the world have adopted iOS to help pilots fly safer, more efficient flights. And many airlines are also using iOS to support better customer experiences and improve maintenance operations.

回顧 2018 財年，我們在企業市場取得了巨大進展，iOS 正在改變多個產業的業務運作方式。事實上，全球已有超過 450 家航空公司和排名前 50 的航空公司中的 47 家採用 iOS 系統來幫助飛行員更安全、更有效率地飛行。許多航空公司也正在使用 iOS 來提升客戶體驗並改善維護營運。

We're also making great strides in the retail sector, where 9 of the top 10 global retailers use iOS devices to transform their customer and employee experiences. We are seeing industry-wide adoption of iOS at thousands of retailers from neighborhood boutiques to many of the best-known retailers in the world. Deployment of iOS devices is growing steadily as retailers replace their traditional point-of-sale systems and use custom iOS apps on iPhones and iPads to provide highly personalized shopping experiences.

我們在零售領域也取得了長足進步，全球排名前 10 的零售商中有 9 家使用 iOS 裝置來改變其客戶和員工體驗。我們看到，從社區精品店到許多世界知名零售商，成千上萬的零售商都在全行業範圍內採用 iOS 系統。隨著零售商以客製化的 iOS 應用程式取代傳統的銷售點系統，在 iPhone 和 iPad 上提供高度個人化的購物體驗，iOS 裝置的部署正在穩步增長。

Our success in enterprise is supported by our key partnerships. Since launching our first strategic partnership with IBM, 240 large customers have signed MobileFirst for iOS deals. Additionally, earlier in the year, we introduced 2 new technology offerings: IBM Watson services for Core ML and the IBM Cloud Developer Console for Apple that are enabling businesses to combine machine learning and cloud for a new generation of dynamic smart apps made for iOS. Over 60 new signings across numerous industries have been added since launching these new tools.

我們在企業領域的成功離不開關鍵合作關係的支持。自從我們與 IBM 建立首個策略合作夥伴關係以來，已有 240 家大型客戶簽署了 MobileFirst for iOS 協議。此外，今年早些時候，我們推出了兩項新技術產品：IBM Watson Core ML 服務和 IBM Cloud Developer Console for Apple，使企業能夠將機器學習和雲端技術相結合，為 iOS 打造新一代動態智慧應用程式。自推出這些新工具以來，已在多個行業新增了 60 多個簽約客戶。

In our new partnership with Salesforce, we're excited to bring together the #1 customer relationship management platform and iOS. Together with Apple, Salesforce is redesigning its apps to embrace the native mobile platform with exclusive new features on iOS. The company can also provide tools and resources for millions of Salesforce developers to build their own native apps with a new Salesforce Mobile SDK for iOS.

我們很高興與 Salesforce 建立新的合作關係，將排名第一的客戶關係管理平台與 iOS 系統結合。Salesforce 與蘋果公司合作，正在重新設計其應用程序，以適應原生行動平台，並在 iOS 上推出獨家新功能。該公司還可以為數百萬 Salesforce 開發人員提供工具和資源，以便他們可以使用新的 Salesforce Mobile SDK for iOS 建立自己的原生應用程式。

And finally, we recently announced Apple business manager, a new way for IT teams to deploy Apple devices at scale. The response from companies around the world has been tremendous with over 40,000 companies currently enrolled.

最後，我們最近發布了 Apple Business Manager，這是一種 IT 團隊大規模部署 Apple 裝置的新方法。全球各公司的反應非常熱烈，目前已有超過 4 萬家公司報名參加。

Let me now turn to our cash position. We ended the quarter with $237.1 billion in cash plus marketable securities. We also had $102.5 billion in term debt and $12 billion in commercial paper outstanding for a net cash position of $122.6 billion. As explained earlier this year, it is our plan to reach a net cash neutral position over time. As part of this plan, we returned over $23 billion to investors during the quarter. We repurchased 92.5 million Apple shares for $19.4 billion through open market transactions, and we paid $3.5 billion in dividends and equivalents.

現在讓我來看看我們的現金狀況。本季末，我們持有現金及有價證券共2,371億美元。我們還有 1,025 億美元的定期債務和 120 億美元的未償商業票據，淨現金部位為 1,226 億美元。正如今年早些時候所解釋的那樣，我們的計劃是逐步實現淨現金中性。作為該計劃的一部分，我們在本季向投資者返還了超過 230 億美元。我們透過公開市場交易回購了 9,250 萬股蘋果股票，價值 194 億美元，並支付了 35 億美元的股息及等價物。

For our fiscal year 2018, revenue grew over $36 billion to $265.6 billion, an all-time record. Every geographic segment grew double digits with new records in the Americas, Europe, Japan and rest of Asia Pacific. We also set new all-time records for net income, up 23% versus last year and EPS, up 29%. And we returned a total of almost $90 billion to our investors during the year, including almost $14 billion in dividends and equivalents and over $73 billion in share repurchases.

2018 財年，我們的營收成長超過 360 億美元，達到 2,656 億美元，創歷史新高。所有地理區域均實現了兩位數的成長，美洲、歐洲、日本和亞太其他地區均創下新紀錄。我們也創下了淨收入和每股盈餘的新紀錄，分別比去年增長了 23% 和 29%。這一年，我們總共向投資者返還了近 900 億美元，其中包括近 140 億美元的股息及等價物，以及超過 730 億美元的股票回購。

Before we discuss our December quarter outlook, I'd like to describe a number of changes in our financial reporting that we're implementing as we enter our new fiscal year. First, given the increasing importance of our Services business and in order to provide additional transparency to our financial results, we will start reporting revenue as well as cost of sales for both total products and total services beginning this December quarter.

在討論我們對 12 月季度的展望之前，我想先介紹一下我們在進入新財年之際正在實施的一些財務報告方面的變更。首先，鑑於我們的服務業務日益重要，為了提高財務業績的透明度，我們將從今年 12 月季度開始報告全部產品和服務的收入以及銷售成本。

Second, also beginning this December quarter, we're adopting the FASB's new standard for revenue recognition. This will not result in any change to our total revenue, but it will impact the way we report the classification of revenue between products and services. In particular, the revenue corresponding to the amortization of the deferred value of bundled services such as Maps, Siri and free iCloud services was previously reported in product revenue. After adopting the new standards, this revenue will now be reported in Services revenue.

其次，從今年 12 月季度開始，我們將採用 FASB 的新收入確認標準。這不會對我們的總收入造成任何影響，但會影響我們對產品和服務收入分類的報告方式。具體而言，與地圖、Siri 和免費 iCloud 服務等捆綁服務的遞延價值攤銷相對應的收入，此前已計入產品收入。採用新標準後，這​​部分收入將計入服務收入。

The change in classification between products and services will also apply to the costs that are associated with the delivery of such bundled services. After we file our 10-K, we will post a schedule to our Investor Relations website showing the reclassification of fiscal 2018 revenue from products to services in connection with the adoption of the new standard.

產品和服務分類的變更也將適用於與提供此類捆綁服務相關的成本。提交 10-K 表格後，我們將在投資者關係網站上發布一份附表，說明 2018 財年收入如何根據新準則從產品重新分類為服務。

The size of this reclassification amounts to less than 1% of total company revenues. And for clarity, this reclassification was not contemplated in our previously stated goal of doubling our fiscal '16 Services revenue by 2020. That goal remains unchanged and excludes the revenue that is now shifting from products to services over that time frame.

此次重新分類的規模不到公司總收入的1%。需要澄清的是，這種重新分類並不在我們先前提出的 2020 年將 2016 財年服務收入翻倍的目標之內。此目標保持不變，且不包括在此期間從產品轉向服務所產生的收入。

Third, starting with the December quarter, we will no longer be providing unit sales data for iPhone, iPad and Mac. As we have stated many times, our objective is to make great products and services that enrich people's lives and to provide an unparalleled customer experience so that our users are highly satisfied, loyal and engaged. As we accomplish these objectives, strong financial results follow.

第三，從 12 月季度開始，我們將不再提供 iPhone、iPad 和 Mac 的銷售數據。正如我們多次聲明的那樣，我們的目標是打造能夠豐富人們生活的優質產品和服務，並提供無與倫比的客戶體驗，從而使我們的用戶高度滿意、忠誠和積極參與。隨著這些目標的實現，強勁的財務表現也將隨之而來。

As demonstrated by our financial performance in recent years, the number of units sold in any 90-day period is not necessarily representative of the underlying strength of our business. Furthermore, our unit of sale is less relevant for us today than it was in the past given the breadth of our portfolio and the wider sales price dispersion within any given product line.

從我們近年的財務表現可以看出，任何 90 天期間的銷售並不一定能代表我們業務的潛在實力。此外，鑑於我們產品組合的廣泛性和任何給定產品線內銷售價格的更大差異，我們的銷售單位對我們來說，如今的重要性不如過去了。

Fourth, starting with the December quarter, we will be renaming the other products category to wearables, home and accessories to provide a more accurate description of the items that are included in this product category.

第四，從 12 月季度開始，我們將把其他產品類別更名為穿戴用品、家居用品和配飾，以便更準確地描述該產品類別中包含的商品。

As we move ahead to the December quarter, I'd like to review our outlook, which includes the types of forward-looking information that Nancy referred to at the beginning of the call. We have the strongest lineup ever as we enter the holiday season, and we expect revenue to be between $89 billion and $93 billion, a new all-time record. This range reflects a number of factors to be considered: First, we consider the effect on Q4 and Q1 of the launch timing of our new iPhones this year versus last year; Second, we expect almost $2 billion of foreign exchange headwinds; Third, we had an unprecedented number of products ramping, and while our ramps are going fairly well, we have uncertainty around supply and demand balance; and fourth, we also face some macroeconomic uncertainty, particularly in emerging markets.

隨著我們進入 12 月季度，我想回顧一下我們的展望，其中包括 Nancy 在電話會議開始時提到的那些前瞻性資訊。我們擁有史上最強大的假日產品陣容，預計營收將在 890 億美元至 930 億美元之間，創歷史新高。這一區間反映了需要考慮的諸多因素：首先，我們考慮了今年新款 iPhone 發佈時間與去年相比對第四季度和第一季度的影響；其次，我們預計將面臨近 20 億美元的外匯不利影響；第三，我們有前所未有的產品量產，雖然量產進展相當順利，但供需平衡方面仍存在不確定性；第三，我們有前所未有的產品量產，雖然量產進展相當順利，但供需平衡方面仍存在不確定性；

We expect gross margin to be between 38% and 38.5%. We expect OpEx to be between $8.7 billion and $8.8 billion. We expect OI&E to be about $300 million. And we expect the tax rate to be about 16.5% before discrete items. Also, today, our Board of Directors has declared a cash dividend of $0.73 per share of common stock payable on November 15, 2018, to shareholders of record as of November 12, 2018.

我們預計毛利率將在 38% 至 38.5% 之間。我們預計營運支出將在 87 億美元至 88 億美元之間。我們預計營運、投資和支出約為 3 億美元。我們預計不計特殊項目稅率約為 16.5%。此外，今天，我們的董事會宣布派發每股普通股0.73美元的現金股息，將於2018年11月15日支付給截至2018年11月12日登記在冊的股東。

With that, I'd like to open the call to questions.

接下來，我想接受大家的提問。

Thank you, Luca. (Operator Instructions)

謝謝你，盧卡。（操作說明）

Our first question will come from Wamsi Mohan with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

我們的第一個問題將來自美國銀行美林證券的 Wamsi Mohan。

Tim, there has been some real deceleration in some of these emerging markets, partly driven by some concerns around some of the rules the administration is contemplating and partly driven by things that are more specific to China, for instance, like some of the regulations around gaming. So can you talk about how you see the trajectory there for the business and what you think of the initiatives of some companies like Netflix and Fortnite trying to bypass the App Store around subscriptions? And I have a follow-up.

提姆，一些新興市場確實出現了一些真正的放緩，部分原因是人們對政府正在考慮的一些規則感到擔憂，部分原因是一些更具體到中國的事情，例如一些關於博彩業的監管規定。那麼，您能否談談您如何看待該行業的未來發展軌跡，以及您如何看待像 Netflix 和 Fortnite 這樣的公司試圖繞過 App Store 進行訂閱的舉措？我還有一個後續問題。

Sure. Great question. Starting with emerging markets. The emerging markets that we're seeing pressure in are markets like Turkey, India, Brazil, Russia, these are markets where currencies have weakened over the recent period. In some cases, that resulted in us raising prices, and those markets are not growing the way we would like to see. To give you a perspective in -- at some detail, our business at India in Q4 was flat. Obviously, we would like to see that be a huge growth. Brazil was down somewhat compared to the previous year. And so I think -- or at least the way that I see these is each one of the emerging markets has a bit of a different story. And I don't see it as some sort of issue that is common between those for the most part. In relation to China specifically, I would not put China in that category. Our business in China was very strong last quarter. We grew 16%, which we're very happy with. iPhone, in particular, was very strong double-digit growth there. Our other products category was also stronger, in fact, a bit stronger than even the company -- overall company number. The App Store in China, we have seen a slowdown or a moratorium to be more accurate on new game approvals. There is a new regulatory setup in China, and there's -- things are not moving the way they were moving previously. We did see a few games approved recently, but it's very far below the historic pace. And as you're probably seeing, some of the larger companies there that are public have talked about this as they've announced their earnings as well. We don't know exactly when this will -- the approvals will sort of return to a normal pace. So I would not want to predict that. I do not view, just to try -- for avoidance of doubt here, I don't view that, that issue has anything to do with the trade-related discussions between the countries. I think that is strictly a domestic issue in China. In terms of larger developers, if you sort of step back and look at the value proposition for people from the App Store, there are 2 key constituencies in that equation. There's the user, and there's the developer. If you start with the user, what the App Store provides people is sort of the best and safest place for users to get apps. And we put a -- we have a tremendous process and infrastructure around achieving that. And where it is not perfect, we wind up reviewing 100,000 -- over 100,000 apps a week between new apps and updates for existing apps and then work with developers quickly to fix the issues. And we also provide the user a one-payment model for purchasing apps and subscriptions and in-app purchases, et cetera, so that they are not in a position that they have to share their private information across many companies. And so that's sort of the proposition for the user. For the developer, we obviously provide developers a tremendous amount of developer tools, programs, compilers, languages, of course, the operating system APIs, SDKs and have a huge developer relations team. And we do a tremendous amount of marketing for developers, including the new Today editorial that we just started in the past few months, personal recommendations search, tools and so on and so forth. And so if -- there will be -- there's no doubt, in my mind, there have already been some large developers that concluded that they could do something on their own. We're fine with that. I think Luca mentioned in his comments that the largest -- if I look at the largest developer, they make up less than 0.3% of the Services revenue. So it's probably good to think about that in that context, and there are millions of apps on the store obviously and 30,000 or so subscription apps. And so the subscription business itself is nearly as broad as the App Store itself is. And so that's the value proposition, I think, that the vast majority of people are very happy with it and including the most important people of all, which is the user.

當然。問得好。首先從新興市場入手。我們看到土耳其、印度、巴西、俄羅斯等新興市場面臨壓力，這些市場的貨幣在近期內都出現了貶值。在某些情況下，這導致我們提高了價格，而這些市場的成長方式也不符合我們的預期。詳細來說，我們第四季在印度的業務表現平平。顯然，我們希望看到巨大的成長。與前一年相比，巴西的排名有所下降。所以我認為——或至少在我看來——每個新興市場都有一些不同的故事。而且我也不認為這是他們之間普遍存在的某種問題。就中國而言，我不會把中國歸入這一類。上個季度我們在中國的業務表現非常強勁。我們成長了16%，對此我們非常滿意。尤其是iPhone，在那裡實現了非常強勁的兩位數成長。我們的其他產品類別表現也更強勁，實際上甚至比公司整體表現還要強勁一些。在中國，App Store 的新遊戲審核速度已經放緩，或者更準確地說，是暫停了。中國出現了新的監管體系，事情的發展方式也與以前不同了。我們最近確實看到一些遊戲獲得批准，但這遠低於以往的速度。正如你可能已經看到的，一些規模較大的上市企業在公佈收益時也談到了這一點。我們不知道這種情況何時會恢復正常──審批速度會逐漸恢復正常。所以我不想對此做出預測。我不認為——為了避免任何誤解，我不認為這個問題與兩國之間的貿易相關討論有任何關係。我認為這完全是中國國內問題。對於大型開發商而言，如果你退後一步，從 App Store 用戶的角度審視其價值主張，你會發現其中有兩個關鍵群體。這裡既有用戶，也有開發者。如果從用戶的角度來看，App Store 為用戶提供的可以說是獲取應用程式的最佳、最安全的地方。我們為此制定了一套完善的流程和基礎架構。如果應用程式不夠完美，我們每週要審查超過 10 萬個應用程序，包括新應用程式和現有應用程式的更新，然後與開發人員快速合作解決問題。我們還為用戶提供一次性付款模式，用於購買應用程式、訂閱和應用程式內購買等，這樣他們就不必在多家公司之間共享他們的私人資訊。所以，這就是我們為用戶提供的方案。對於開發者而言，我們顯然為開發者提供了大量的開發者工具、程式、編譯器、語言，當然還有作業系統 API、SDK，我們擁有龐大的開發者關係團隊。我們為開發者做了大量的市場推廣工作，包括我們最近幾個月推出的全新 Today 編輯內容、個人化推薦搜尋、工具等等。所以，如果——肯定會有——毫無疑問，在我看來，已經有一些大型開發商得出結論，他們可以自己做一些事情。我們沒意見。我認為盧卡在他的評論中提到，最大的開發商——如果我看一下最大的開發商，他們只佔服務收入的不到 0.3%。所以，在這個背景下思考這個問題可能是有益的，而且應用程式商店裡顯然有數百萬個應用，還有大約 3 萬個訂閱應用程式。因此，訂閱業務本身的規模幾乎與 App Store 本身一樣龐大。所以，我認為，這就是它的價值主張，絕大多數人對此都非常滿意，其中也包括最重要的使用者。

Appreciate that response. If I could just ask you really quick on Apple's role in health care. It's been growing significantly since the early introduction on the Watch and then the various kits for developers, including HealthKit, CareKit, et cetera. And when you combine that with your very staunch advocacy for privacy, I see Apple could become a really large disintermediating force in all the friction in the health care industry today in the way medical information is shared and distributed. Is this the way that you see the future for Apple in health care? And do you see a means to also grow your Services business through the health care offerings that could become subscriptions to your customers?

感謝您的回覆。我能否快速問一下關於蘋果公司在醫療保健領域扮演的角色？自 Apple Watch 早期引入以來，以及隨後面向開發者的各種工具包（包括 HealthKit、CareKit 等）的推出，Apple Kit 的發展速度顯著加快。再加上你對隱私的堅定擁護，我認為蘋果可能會成為當今醫療保健行業在醫療資訊共享和分發方面所有摩擦的真正強大的去中介力量。這就是您眼中蘋果在醫療保健領域的未來發展方向嗎？您是否認為可以透過向客戶推出訂閱式醫療保健服務來拓展您的服務業務？

I think Apple has a huge opportunity in the -- in health. And you can see from the -- our past several years that we have an intense interest in the space and are adding products and services, non-monetized services so far to that. And I don't want to talk about the future because I don't want to give away what we're doing. But this is an area of major interest to us.

我認為蘋果在醫療健康領域擁有巨大的機會。從我們過去幾年的發展歷程可以看出，我們對這個領域有著濃厚的興趣，並且不斷增加產品和服務，目前為止，我們提供的都是非貨幣化服務。我不想談論未來，因為我不想洩漏我們正在做的事情。但這是我們非常感興趣的領域。

Shannon Cross from Cross Research has the next question.

來自 Cross Research 的 Shannon Cross 提出了下一個問題。

Given the $4 billion range in revenue that you're giving for the quarter and all of the -- all the things that are going on in the world right now, can you maybe give a little detail about the variables that you took into account when you were coming up with this, geopolitical trade, macro component costs, I don't know, if you can just give it some ideas as -- on what the puts and takes were?

鑑於您預測本季營收將達到 40 億美元，以及目前世界上正在發生的一切，您能否詳細說明一下您在做出這一預測時考慮的變量，例如地緣政治貿易、宏觀經濟組成部分成本等等，您能否就一些因素給出一些思路，比如哪些因素在起作用？

Yes. Shannon, I'll take this one. And at the revenue level, we started from the fact that we are very, very excited about the lineup of products and services that we have getting into the holiday season. It's the strongest lineup that we've ever had. And our guidance range, by the way, represents a new all-time quarterly revenue record, right? As I explained in my prepared remarks, there are a number of things that need to be considered as part of this guidance range, right? The first one is the fact that the launch timing of the new iPhones this year is essentially in reverse order versus last year. And that has had an effect on Q1 -- on Q4 and will have an effect on Q1. Last year, we launched the top end of our iPhone lineup, which was iPhone X during Q1, and placed the entirety of the channel fill for iPhone X in Q1. This year, we launched the top end of the lineup, which is the Xs and the Xs Max during Q4. Obviously, this resulted in a more pronounced ASP growth in Q4 of '18 and obviously a tougher compare for Q1. So I think it's important to keep that in mind as you look at the revenue guidance that we provided. The second point that needs to be kept in mind, it is a fact of life and we've dealt with it for a number of years now, is the fact that when I look at currencies around the world, virtually every foreign currency has depreciated against the U.S. dollar in the last 12 months. And when we look at the impact of foreign exchange on our revenue for the December quarter, we're looking at 200 basis points of headwinds, which translate, given our -- the size of our business, to almost $2 billion of headwind to our revenue. The third point that I think is important to keep in mind, and Tim has talked about this, we are launching -- in the last 6 weeks, we've launched an unprecedented number of new products. They're all ramping right now. The ramps are going fairly well, but obviously, we have some uncertainty around supply-demand balance for some of these products. And then finally, the last point that we've taken into account is what Tim's talked about in terms of some level of uncertainty at the macroeconomic level in some emerging markets, where, clearly, consumer confidence is not as high as it was 12 months ago. So take that into account, and that's how we got to the range.

是的。香農，我來做這個。在營收方面，我們首先要說的是，我們對即將到來的假期季節的產品和服務陣容感到非常非常興奮。這是我們有史以來最強的陣容。順便一提，我們的業績指引範圍也創下了季度營收新紀錄，對吧？正如我在準備好的演講稿中所解釋的那樣，作為這一指導範圍的一部分，有很多事情需要考慮，對吧？首先，今年新款 iPhone 的發佈時間與去年基本相反。這已經對第一季和第四季產生了影響，並且還會對第一季產生影響。去年，我們推出了 iPhone 產品線的高階產品 iPhone X，並在第一季完成了 iPhone X 的所有通路填充工作。今年第四季度，我們推出了產品線中的高階產品，即 Xs 和 Xs Max。顯然，這導致 2018 年第四季的平均售價成長更為明顯，而第一季的年比數據則明顯更高。所以我認為，在看待我們提供的收入預期時，牢記這一點非常重要。需要記住的第二點是，這是一個現實，我們已經面對這個問題好幾年了，那就是，當我觀察世界各地的貨幣時，幾乎所有外幣在過去 12 個月中都對美元貶值了。當我們審視外匯對我們 12 月季度收入的影響時，我們發現存在 200 個基點的不利因素，考慮到我們業務的規模，這相當於對我們的收入造成了近 20 億美元的不利影響。我認為需要記住的第三點是，蒂姆也談到了這一點，那就是——在過去的 6 周里，我們推出了前所未有的新產品數量。他們現在都在加緊生產。產能提升進展相當順利，但顯然，其中一些產品的供需平衡存在一些不確定性。最後，我們考慮的最後一點是提姆談到的一些新興市場宏觀經濟層面的不確定性，顯然，這些市場的消費者信心不如 12 個月前那麼高。所以把這一點考慮進去，這就是我們得出這個範圍的方法。

Okay. And then I just want to talk a little bit about the pullback in terms of guidance from a unit perspective. I understand you don't want to give guidance because 90 days is a short period of time and can be -- fluctuate. But what kind of qualitative commentary do you think you'll be able to provide? Because it's -- obviously, investors have spent the last however many years going P times Q. So how should we think about what we can expect? And sort of how are you going to manage this process as we go through? I know it's all our job to forecast but...

好的。然後，我想從部門的角度稍微談談業績指引方面的回檔。我理解你不想給予指導意見，因為 90 天時間很短，而且可能會有波動。但你認為你能提供什麼樣的質性評論呢？因為很明顯，過去幾年投資者一直在追求P乘以Q。那我們該如何看待未來的預期呢？那麼，在整個過程中，你們打算如何管理這個過程呢？我知道預測是我們每個人的工作，但…

Yes, let me walk you through the rationale that we've used, and then I'll talk about this qualitative commentary that you were mentioning. As I said, right, our objective is to make great products, provide the best customer experience and get our customers satisfied, engaged and loyal to our ecosystem. When you look at our financial performance in recent years, take the last 3 years, for example, the number of units sold during any quarter has not been necessarily representative of the underlying strength of our business. If you look at our revenue during the last 3 years, if you look at our net income during the last 3 years, if you look at our spot price during the last 3 years, there's no correlation to the units sold in any given period. As you know very well, in addition, our product ranges for all the major product categories have become wider over time, and therefore, a unit of sale is less relevant for us at this point compared to the past because we got this much wider sales price dispersion. So unit of sale per se becomes less relevant. As I know you're aware, by the way, our top competitors in smartphones, in tablets, in computers do not provide quarterly unit sales information either. But of course, we understand that this is something of interest. And when we believe that providing qualitative commentary on unit sales offers additional relevant information to investors, we will do so.

好的，讓我先向您解釋一下我們所採用的理由，然後再談談您提到的定性評論。正如我所說，我們的目標是打造優秀的產品，提供最佳的客戶體驗，讓我們的客戶滿意、積極參與並忠於我們的生態系統。從我們近年的財務表現來看，例如過去 3 年，任何一個季度的銷售都不一定能代表我們業務的潛在實力。如果你看一下我們過去 3 年的收入，如果你看一下我們過去 3 年的淨利潤，如果你看一下我們過去 3 年的現貨價格，你會發現它們與任何特定時期內的銷量都沒有相關性。如您所知，隨著時間的推移，我們所有主要產品類別的產品範圍都擴大了，因此，與過去相比，銷售單位對我們來說現在的重要性降低了，因為我們的銷售價格分佈範圍更廣了。因此，銷售單位本身的重要性就降低了。順便一提，我知道您也知道，我們在智慧型手機、平板電腦和電腦領域的主要競爭對手也不提供季度銷售資訊。當然，我們明白這是大家感興趣的話題。當我們認為提供有關單位銷售的定性評論能夠為投資者提供更多相關資訊時，我們就會這樣做。

Let me make one additional point there just for clarity, is that, Shannon, our intention is to continue to give revenue guidance at the company level and gross margin guidance in the other categories that we've been providing. And so the -- our guidance isn't changing. It's the actual report that changes.

為了更清楚地說明問題，我還要補充一點，香農，我們打算繼續提供公司層面的收入指引以及我們一直在提供的其他類別的毛利率指引。所以——我們的指導方針不會改變。真正改變的是報告的內容。

Our next question comes from Mike Olson with Piper Jaffray.

下一個問題來自Piper Jaffray公司的Mike Olson。

With the staggered iPhone launch, were you able to discern any impact on the Xs and Xs Max from buyers potentially waiting for the XR? And what, if anything, can we take away from the December quarter guidance related to what you're seeing for early demand on the XR? And then I have a follow-up.

由於 iPhone 採取了分階段發布的方式，您是否能夠看出這是否對那些可能正在等待 XR 的買家造成了任何影響？那麼，從您發布的 12 月季度業績指引中，我們能了解到哪些關於 XR 早期需求的資訊呢？然後我還有一個後續問題。

Mike, it's Tim. The Xs and Xs Max got off to a really great start, and we've only been selling for a few weeks. The XR, we've only got out there for, I guess, 5 -- 5 days or so at this point and so that it's -- we have very, very little data there. Usually, there is some amount of wait until a product shows -- another product shows up in look, but in -- that -- in looking at the data, on the sales data for Xs and Xs Max, there's not obvious evidence of that in the data as I see it.

麥克，我是提姆。Xs 和 Xs Max 的開局非常成功，而我們只銷售了幾個星期。XR，我們目前只部署了大約 5 天，所以——我們在這方面的數據非常非常少。通常情況下，產品出現之前需要等待一段時間——另一個產品在外觀上出現，但在——那——查看數據，查看 Xs 和 Xs Max 的銷售數據時，在我看來，數據中並沒有明顯的證據表明這一點。

Got it. And you mentioned record levels for various components of the Services business. As we look forward, if growth of Services is to maintain something close to the recent pace, what are the components of Services that you're particularly excited about that could drive that and be the strongest drivers? And maybe an offshoot to that, it seems like the news flow around augmented reality slowed a little bit in recent months. Is that potentially materially contributor to services in the near future?

知道了。您也提到服務業務的各個組成部分都創下了歷史新高。展望未來，如果服務業務的成長要保持近期的速度，您認為服務業務的哪些組成部分最能推動成長，成為最強勁的驅動力？或許由此衍生出的現像是，近幾個月來，有關擴增實境的新聞報導似乎有所減少。這是否有可能在不久的將來對服務產生實質影響？

Like as we said, during the September quarter, we set new records for many, many Services categories, right, from Apple Music to cloud services to the App Store to AppleCare and Apple Pay really has an exponential trajectory right now. When we look at our Services business, we think about the fact that we have a very large and growing installed base. The installed base of all our major product categories is at an all-time high and has been growing over the last several quarters. So the opportunity for us to monetize our Services business continues to grow over time. Of course, we are also improving the quality of the services that we provide, and if you look back during the last 3 years, we've added new services to our portfolio. We added Apple Pay. We added Apple Music. We added this advertising business on our App Store. And clearly, we will want to continue to offer new services over time. So there are a number of vectors that allow us to continue to grow the business over time. We have stated that we want to double the size of the Services business from the level that we had in fiscal '16 by 2020. We are well on pace to achieve that, and we feel very, very confident about the future of -- and the opportunities that we have in the Services space.

正如我們所說，在 9 月的季度中，我們在許多服務類別中都創下了新紀錄，對吧？從 Apple Music 到雲端服務，再到 App Store 和 AppleCare，Apple Pay 目前的發展動能非常迅速。當我們審視我們的服務業務時，我們會想到我們擁有非常龐大且不斷成長的客戶群。我們所有主要產品類別的裝機量均達到歷史最高水平，並且在過去幾季中一直保持成長。因此，隨著時間的推移，我們透過服務業務實現盈利的機會也在不斷增長。當然，我們也不斷提高服務品質。回顧過去三年，我們已經為我們的服務組合增加了新的服務。我們新增了Apple Pay。我們添加了 Apple Music。我們在應用程式商店中新增了這項廣告業務。顯然，隨著時間的推移，我們將繼續提供新的服務。因此，有很多途徑可以讓我們隨著時間的推移繼續發展業務。我們曾表示，我們希望在 2020 年將服務業務的規模在 2016 財年的基礎上翻倍。我們正按計劃穩步實現這一目標，並且我們對服務領域的未來以及我們所擁有的機會感到非常非常有信心。

Mike, in terms of your question on AR, I have a different view than you do on this one. We -- just a year ago -- practically, a year ago, we came out with ARKit 1. 6 months or so after that, we came out with 1.5. We then recently came out with ARKit 2. The number of things that you can do are growing significantly. The number of developers that either have done something or even more the case that are working on things that I've seen are growing tremendously. There's a lot of interest out there. And the number of categories that I'm seeing from gaming to shopping to -- I was in China a few weeks ago and saw AR in the -- in an art sense, an art exhibit. I was in Berlin last week and saw it being used in a historical educational kind of sense. I'm seeing it sort of everywhere I go now. And so I think we are in the early days, and it'll keep getting better and better. But I'm really happy with where things are at the moment.

麥克，關於你提出的擴增實境（AR）問題，我的看法和你不同。就在一年前，我們推出了 ARKit 1。大約 6 個月後，我們推出了 1.5。最近我們推出了 ARKit 2。它能實現的功能數量正在顯著增加。我看到，已經有所成就的開發者數量，以及正在從事相關工作的開發者數量，都在大幅增加。外界對此很感興趣。我看到的應用類別越來越多，從遊戲到購物，再到——幾週前我在中國的時候，在藝術領域，例如藝術展覽中，我看到了擴增實境技術。我上週在柏林，看到它被用於歷史教育領域。我現在幾乎走到哪裡都能看到它。所以我覺得我們現在還處於早期階段，情況會越來越好。但我對目前的情況非常滿意。

Next, we'll go to Katy Huberty with Morgan Stanley.

接下來，我們將連線摩根士丹利的凱蒂·休伯蒂。

Tim, given the current trade negotiations and broader geopolitical risk, do you have any plans to consider diversifying the supply chain? And if you were to do that, either on your own or sort of forced, do you think it would have significant impact on the business or profitability?

提姆，鑑於目前的貿易談判和更廣泛的地緣政治風險，你是否有任何計劃考慮供應鏈多元化？如果這樣做，無論是出於自願還是被迫，你認為這會對業務或獲利能力產生重大影響嗎？

Katy, if you look at the products that we've created and are manufacturing, they're really manufactured everywhere. We have significant content from the U.S. market. We have content from Japan to Korea to many countries, and we have great content from China as well. And so there are many hands in the products. The vast majority or almost all of the R&D is in the United States as well as a lot of the support organization. And I -- so as -- I think that, that basic model where you look around the world and find the best in different areas, I don't expect that model to go out of style so to speak. I think there's a reason why things have developed in that way, and I think it's great for all countries and citizens of countries that are involved in that. And I'm still of the mindset that I feel very optimistic and positive that the discussions that are going will be fruitful. The -- these relationships, these trade relationships are big and complex, and they clearly do need a level of focus and a level of updating and modernization. And so I'm optimistic of -- that the countries, the U.S. and China and the U.S. and Europe and so forth can work these things out and work for the benefit of everyone.

凱蒂，如果你看看我們已經創造和正在生產的產品，你會發現它們實際上是在世界各地生產的。我們擁有大量來自美國市場的內容。我們擁有來自日本、韓國等許多國家的內容，也擁有來自中國的優質內容。因此，產品背後有許多環節。絕大多數或幾乎全部的研發工作以及許多支援機構都位於美國。所以，我認為，這種放眼全球、尋找各領域最佳人才的基本模式，我認為這種模式不會過時。我認為事情發展成這樣是有原因的，我認為這對所有參與其中的國家和公民來說都是一件好事。我仍然非常樂觀地認為，正在進行的討論將會取得成果。這些關係，這些貿易關係，規模龐大且錯綜複雜，顯然需要一定程度的關注、更新和現代化。因此，我樂觀地認為，美國和中國、美國和歐洲等等國家能夠解決這些問題，並為所有人的利益而努力。

That's helpful color. And Luca, as a follow-up, NAND prices fell significantly during the September quarter. Why aren't we seeing that flow through to margin expansion to the overall company?

這是個很有幫助的顏色。盧卡，作為後續報道，NAND 快閃記憶體價格在 9 月季度大幅下跌。為什麼我們沒有看到這種成長轉化為公司整體利潤率的提升？

You're referring to the guidance that we provided for Q1, I imagine. And let me give you the puts and takes, Katy. You're correct, we are going to be getting some benefits from commodities in general and memory in particular. Memory, on a sequential basis, it's about 30 basis points favorable for us going into the December quarter. And obviously, we're going to be benefiting from the leverage, which is typical of our seasonality in the December quarter. On the other hand, as I mentioned before, currencies have weakened against the U.S. dollar. And the impact that we expect at the gross margin level from foreign exchange is a 90 basis points headwind sequentially. And of course, at this point in the cycle, we also have higher cost structures because, as I said, we've launched so many new products in the last 6 weeks. So those are the puts and takes, leverage and commodity savings on one side and FX and the new products on the other side.

我想您指的是我們為第一季提供的指導意見。讓我來告訴你其中的利弊，凱蒂。你說得對，我們將從大宗商品（尤其是記憶體）中獲得一些好處。從季度環比來看，記憶體方面，我們比去年12月季有利約30個基點。顯然，我們將受益於槓桿效應，這是我們12月季度的典型季節性特徵。另一方面，正如我之前提到的，貨幣對美元已經走弱。我們預期外匯匯率對毛利率的影響將較上季下降 90 個基點。當然，在這個週期階段，我們的成本結構也更高，因為正如我所說，我們在過去 6 週內推出了許多新產品。所以，一方面是期權和交易、槓桿和商品節省，另一方面是外匯和新產品。

Next, we'll go to Jim Suva with Citigroup.

接下來，我們將連線花旗集團的吉姆·蘇瓦。

A question for Tim and a question for Luca, and I'll ask them at the same time, so you can decide to answer the first or second. But operationally, Tim, I think your company is at a disadvantage relative to others in India giving where items are produced versus shipped versus taxed versus installed as well as ability to own stores. So can you help us address that? Is India going to potentially be a big area as I think you've got about only 1% market share, but it sounded like things may be softened there? And then for Luca, there'd probably be a lot of pushback about not giving iPhone unit data. It sounds like you're still going to give revenue data if I heard that correctly. But some people may fear that this now means that the iPhone units are going to start going negative year-over-year because it's easy to talk about great things and not show the details of things that aren't so great.

我問提姆一個問題，問盧卡一個問題，我會同時問他們，這樣你們就可以決定回答第一個問題還是第二個問題。但從營運角度來看，提姆，我認為你的公司相對於印度的其他公司處於劣勢，因為商品的生產地、運輸地、稅收地、安裝地以及擁有門市的能力都存在差異。那麼，您能幫我們解決這個問題嗎？印度市場是否有可能成為一個很大的市場呢？因為我記得你們在那裡的市佔率只有1%左右，但聽起來那裡的情況可能會有所緩和？而對 Luca 來說，不提供 iPhone 銷售數據可能會遭到許多反對。聽起來你們還是會公佈營收數據，沒聽錯的話。但有些人可能擔心，這意味著 iPhone 的銷量將開始同比下降，因為人們很容易談論美好的事情，而不去展示那些不太好的事情的細節。

Okay. I'll start with India. We've had really great productive discussions with the Indian government, and I fully expect that, at some point, they will agree to allow us to bring our stores into the country. We've been in discussions with them, and the discussions are going quite well. There is -- as you point out, there are import duties in some or most of the product categories that we're in. In some cases, they compound. And this is an area that we're giving lots of feedback on. We do manufacture some of the entry iPhones in India, and that project has gone well. I am a big believer in India. I am very bullish on the country and the people and our ability to do well there. The currency weakness has been part of our challenge there as you can tell from just looking at the currency trend. But I sort of view these as speed bumps along a very long journey, though, in that the long term is -- I think is very, very strong there. There's a huge number of people that will move into the middle class. The government has really focused on reform in a major way and made some very bold moves, and I applaud them for doing that and sort of can't wait for the future there.

好的。我先從印度說起。我們與印度政府進行了非常有成效的討論，我完全相信，在某個時候，他們會同意允許我們將門市引入該國。我們一直在與他們進行討論，而且討論進展順利。正如你所指出的，我們所處的某些或大多數產品類別都有進口關稅。在某些情況下，它們會復合。而這正是我們正在積極回饋的領域。我們在印度生產了一些入門級 iPhone，而且這個專案進展順利。我非常看好印度。我對這個國家、這個人民以及我們在那裡成功的能力都非常看好。從貨幣走勢就能看出，貨幣疲軟一直是我們面臨的挑戰之一。但我認為這些只是漫長旅途中的一些小障礙，因為從長遠來看——我認為它非常非常強大。將會有大量的人躋身中產階級。政府確實非常重視改革，並採取了一些非常大膽的舉措，我對此表示讚賞，並且非常期待那裡的未來發展。

And Jim, let me take the question on units. First of all, as Tim said, our approach to guidance -- providing guidance doesn't change at all, and we continue to provide the same metrics that we were providing before. In terms of reporting results, one of the things that we are doing, and it's new and it's an addition to the information that we provide to investors because we've heard some significant level of interest around this, is starting with the December quarter, for the first time, we're going to be providing information on revenue and cost of sales and therefore, gross margins for both products and services. And this will be the first time that we're going to provide gross margin information for our Services business, which we believe it is an important metric for our investors to follow. Given the rationale on why we do not believe that providing unit sales is particularly relevant for our company at this point, I can reassure you that it is our objective to grow unit sales for every product category that we have. But as I said earlier, a unit of sale is less relevant today than it was in the past. To give you an example, the unit sales of iPhone at the top end of the line have been very strong during the September quarter. And that's very important because we are attracting customers to the most recent technologies and features and innovation that we bring into the lineup, but you don't necessarily see that in the number that is reported. And so therefore, we will -- as I said, we'll provide the qualitative commentary when it is important and relevant, but at the end of the day, we make our decisions to -- from a financial standpoint, to try and optimize our revenue and our gross margin dollars. And that, we think, is the focus that is in the best interest of our investors.

吉姆，讓我來回答關於單位的問題。首先，正如蒂姆所說，我們提供指導的方式——提供指導——完全沒有改變，我們將繼續提供與之前相同的指標。在業績報告方面，我們正在做的一件事，也是我們向投資者提供的資訊的補充，因為我們聽到了一些對此的濃厚興趣，那就是從 12 月季度開始，我們將首次提供有關收入和銷售成本的信息，因此，也將提供有關產品和服務的毛利率的信息。這將是我們首次提供服務業務的毛利率訊息，我們認為這是投資者應該關注的重要指標。鑑於我們認為目前提供銷售​​數據對公司而言並不特別重要，我可以向您保證，我們的目標是提高我們所有產品類別的銷售量。但正如我之前所說，如今銷售單位的重要性已不如過去。舉例來說，iPhone高階機型在9月季度的銷售量非常強勁。這一點非常重要，因為我們吸引顧客購買的是我們產品線中引入的最新技術、功能和創新，但你可能不會在公佈的數據中看到這一點。因此，正如我所說，我們會在重要和相關的時候提供定性評論，但歸根結底，我們所做的決定是從財務角度出發，力求優化我們的收入和毛利率。我們認為，這才是最符合我們投資者利益的關注。

Jim, let me just add a couple things to that for color. Our installed base is growing at double digit, and so there's no -- and that's probably a much more significant metric for us from an ecosystem point of view and customer loyalty, et cetera. The second thing is this is a little bit like if you go to the market and you push your cart up to the cashier and she says or he says, "How many units you have in there?", it sort of -- it doesn't matter a lot how many units there are in there in terms of the overall value of what's in the cart.

吉姆，我再補充幾點，增添一些色彩。我們的安裝基礎正以兩位數的速度成長，因此沒有——從生態系統和客戶忠誠度等方面來看，這可能是對我們來說更重要的指標。第二點是，這有點像你去超市，把購物車推到收銀台前，收銀員問你：“你裡面有多少件商品？”，其實——購物車裡有多少件商品並不重要，重要的是購物車裡商品的總價值。

A replay of today's call will be available for 2 weeks on Apple Podcasts, as a webcast on apple.com/investor and via telephone. And the numbers for the telephone replay are (888) 203-1112 or (719) 457-0820, and please enter confirmation code 3699080. These replays will be available by approximately 5 p.m. Pacific Time today.

今天的電話會議錄音將在 Apple Podcasts 上提供兩週的回放，也可以透過 apple.com/investor 上的網路直播和電話收聽。電話重播號碼為 (888) 203-1112 或 (719) 457-0820，請輸入確認碼 3699080。這些回放影片大約會在下午5點前提供。今天是太平洋時間。

Members of the press with additional questions can contact Kristin Huguet at (408) 974-2414, and financial analysts can contact Matt Blake or me with additional questions. Matt is at (408) 974-7406, and I'm at (408) 974-5420. Thanks again for joining us.

媒體會員如有其他疑問，可致電 (408) 974-2414 聯絡 Kristin Huguet；金融分析師如有其他疑問，可致電 Matt Blake 或聯絡我。Matt 的電話號碼是 (408) 974-7406，我的電話號碼是 (408) 974-5420。再次感謝您的參與。

That does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for your participation.

今天的會議就到此結束。感謝您的參與。