(ZUMZ) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the Zumiez Inc. third-quarter fiscal-2023 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions)

女士們、先生們，午安。歡迎參加 Zumiez Inc. 2023 財年第三季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）

Before we begin, I'd like to remind everyone in the company's Safe Harbor language. Today's conference call includes comments concerning Zumiez Inc. business outlook and contains forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements and all other statements that may be made on this call that are not based on historical facts are subject to risks and uncertainties.

在開始之前，我想用公司的安全港語言提醒大家。今天的電話會議包括有關 Zumiez Inc. 業務前景的評論並包含前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述以及本次電話會議中可能做出的所有其他並非基於歷史事實的陳述均面臨風險和不確定性。

Actual results may differ materially. Additional information concerning a number of factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the information that will be discussed today is available in Zumiez filing in the SEC.

實際結果可能存在重大差異。有關可能導致實際結果與今天討論的信息存在重大差異的許多因素的更多信息，請參閱 Zumiez 向 SEC 提交的文件。

At this time, I'd like to turn the call over to Rick Brooks, Chief Executive Officer. Mr. Brooks.

現在，我想將電話轉給執行長 Rick Brooks。布魯克斯先生。

Hello, everyone, and thanks for joining us on the call. With me today is Chris Work, our Chief Financial Officer. I'll begin today's call with a few remarks about the third quarter and the start to the holiday season, before handing the call over to Chris, who will take you through the financials and some thoughts on the rest of the year. After that, we'll open the call to your questions.

大家好，感謝您加入我們的通話。今天和我在一起的是我們的財務長克里斯沃克 (Chris Work)。我將在今天的電話會議開始時對第三季度和假期季節的開始進行一些評論，然後將電話交給克里斯，他將向您介紹財務狀況以及對今年剩餘時間的一些想法。之後，我們將打開電話回答您的問題。

Our performance in the third quarter came in slightly ahead of our expectations as the year-over-year sales trends continued to improve compared with the first and second quarters. Given that the operating environment remained challenging, particularly in the US, causing our customers to be more selective about when and where they spend their money, we are encouraged by our results during the key weeks of the back-to-school selling season.

我們第三季的業績略高於我們的預期，與第一季和第二季相比，年比銷售趨勢持續改善。鑑於經營環境仍然充滿挑戰，尤其是在美國，導致我們的客戶對花錢的時間和地點更加挑剔，我們對返校銷售季關鍵幾週的業績感到鼓舞。

At the same time, we were not surprised that our sales trends pulled back somewhat during the second half of Q3, as we move beyond the peak back-to-school season. The industry has been volatile all year, marked by muted peaks and deeper valleys as inflationary impacts continued to weigh on discretionary spending combined with increased competition for wallet share from spending on services and experiences. Higher promotional activity to clear elevated inventory levels across our retail sector has added to the headwinds pressuring our full price selling model.

同時，隨著返校高峰期的過去，我們的銷售趨勢在第三季下半年有所回落，我們對此並不感到驚訝。該行業全年波動較大，由於通膨影響持續影響可自由支配支出，加上服務和體驗支出對錢包份額的競爭加劇，其特點是波峰溫和、波谷加深。為了清除整個零售部門高庫存水準而進行的更多促銷活動給我們的全價銷售模式帶來了壓力。

In response to this backdrop, we've continued to adjust our merchandise mix and brand assortments to bring newness to our offering as well as more value through private label brands to support our diverse customer base. These adjustments speak to the strength of our model and our ability to adjust both across departments and from branded to private label products to meet customer demand, all while ensuring we are providing our customer with a world-class service and differentiated shopping experience to expect when visiting Zumiez.

為了應對這一背景，我們繼續調整我們的商品組合和品牌分類，為我們的產品帶來新穎性，並透過自有品牌品牌提供更多價值，以支持我們多元化的客戶群。這些調整說明了我們模式的優勢，以及我們跨部門、從品牌產品到自有品牌產品進行調整以滿足客戶需求的能力，同時確保我們為客戶提供世界一流的服務和差異化的購物體驗。拜訪祖米茲。

To recap our improving trend line, sales were down 17% in Q1, down 12% in Q2, down 9% in Q3, and our recovery has picked up pace thus far in Q4. Through this past Tuesday, fourth quarter-to-date sales are down 4.6% to the prior year. The sales of the Black Friday, Cyber Monday period down 1.4% against the same period last year.

回顧我們不斷改善的趨勢線，第一季銷售額下降了 17%，第二季下降了 12%，第三季下降了 9%，而第四季迄今為止我們的復甦步伐加快了。截至上週二，第四季迄今的銷售額比去年同期下降了 4.6%。黑色星期五、網路星期一期間的銷售額較去年同期下降1.4%。

We're encouraged by the sequential improvement we continue to see in the business. While we are not where we want to be from a results perspective, our current momentum gives us confidence in delivering continued improvement in the fourth quarter and positioning ourselves for growth in 2024.

我們對業務中持續看到的連續改善感到鼓舞。雖然從業績角度來看，我們還沒有達到我們想要的目標，但我們目前的勢頭讓我們有信心在第四季度實現持續改進，並為 2024 年的成長做好準備。

With consistent expense discipline and our lean integrated operating structure, the business can generate leverage and meaningful operating margin expansion even on modest top-line growth. This will allow us to drive enhanced profitability and continue investing in the strategic priorities that we believe will create significant long-term benefit for our customers, our business, and our shareholders.

憑藉一致的費用紀律和精益的綜合營運結構，即使在營收適度增長的情況下，該業務也可以產生槓桿作用和有意義的營業利潤率擴張。這將使我們能夠提高獲利能力，並繼續投資於我們相信將為我們的客戶、我們的業務和股東創造重大長期利益的策略重點。

We've discussed some of these key strategic priorities on our previous calls, including continued investment in our people through best-in-class training and mentoring, optimize our performance by trade area, working with our brands to increase speed, flexibility, and margins, as well as continuing our international expansion driving sales and earnings growth, while better serving our brands and customers as trends emerge locally and grow globally.

我們在先前的電話會議中討論了其中一些關鍵策略優先事項，包括透過一流的培訓和指導對我們的員工進行持續投資，按貿易領域優化我們的績效，與我們的品牌合作以提高速度、靈活性和利潤以及繼續我們的國際擴張，推動銷售和獲利成長，同時隨著本地趨勢的出現和全球的成長，更好地為我們的品牌和客戶提供服務。

We also understand that in difficult times like these is important to balance investments with the tactical adjustments necessary to drive our recovery, including identifying and amplifying emerging brands and trends to build sales, driving promotions where necessary, strong inventory management, and maintaining our strong balance sheet position. It is in these times that we lean heavily into the strong brand and culture that have been critical to Zumiez success from the beginning. We live that culture every day through the outstanding people that are part of our company.

我們也明白，在這樣的困難時期，平衡投資與推動復甦所需的戰術調整非常重要，包括識別和擴大新興品牌和趨勢以建立銷售、在必要時推動促銷、強有力的庫存管理以及保持我們的強大平衡片材位置。正是在這些時期，我們大力依賴強大的品牌和文化，這從一開始就對 Zumiez 的成功至關重要。我們每天都透過公司的傑出人才實踐這種文化。

Now, I'd like to thank everyone in our organization for continued hard work and dedication, especially during the busy holiday season. The foundation of our unique culture and your efforts and commitment to our customers is what set Zumiez apart from the competition for over 45 years.

現在，我要感謝我們組織中的每個人持續的辛勤工作和奉獻精神，特別是在繁忙的假期期間。我們獨特文化的基礎以及您對客戶的努力和承諾是 Zumiez 在超過 45 年的競爭中脫穎而出的原因。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Chris to discuss the financials.

這樣，我會將電話轉給克里斯，討論財務問題。

Thanks, Rick, and good afternoon, everyone.

謝謝瑞克，大家下午好。

I'm going to start with a review of our third quarter results. I'll then provide an update on our fourth quarter-to-date sales trends before providing some perspective on how we're thinking about the full year.

我將首先回顧我們第三季的業績。然後，我將提供有關我們第四季度迄今為止的銷售趨勢的最新信息，然後提供有關我們如何看待全年的一些觀點。

Third quarter net sales were $216.3 million, down 8.9% from $237.6 million in the third quarter of 2022. Comparable sales were down 9.2% for the quarter. The decrease in sales was primarily driven by North America and Australia business, offset by more favorable results in Europe. During the quarter, we continued to see softer sales, primarily driven by ongoing inflationary pressures on the consumer, a shift in spending to travel and experiences, and softer demand for full price key styles and trends in North America.

第三季淨銷售額為 2.163 億美元，較 2022 年第三季的 2.376 億美元下降 8.9%。本季可比銷售額下降 9.2%。銷售額下降主要由北美和澳洲業務推動，但被歐洲更有利的業績所抵銷。本季度，我們繼續看到銷售疲軟，這主要是由於消費者持續的通膨壓力、支出轉向旅行和體驗以及北美對全價關鍵款式和趨勢的需求疲軟。

From a regional perspective, North America net sales were $181.6 million, a decrease of 12% from 2022. Other international net sales which consist of Europe and Australia were $34.8 million, up 11.1% from last year.

從區域角度來看，北美淨銷售額為 1.816 億美元，較 2022 年下降 12%。包括歐洲和澳洲在內的其他國際淨銷售額為 3,480 萬美元，較去年增長 11.1%。

Excluding the impact of foreign currency translation, North America net sales decreased 11.9% and other international net sales increased 5.2% compared with 2022. Comparable sales for North America were down 10.7%. Comparable sales for other international were down 0.3% for the quarter.

排除外幣換算的影響，與 2022 年相比，北美淨銷售額下降 11.9%，其他國際淨銷售額成長 5.2%。北美可比銷售額下降 10.7%。其他國際市場的可比銷售額本季下降了 0.3%。

From a category perspective, all categories were down in comparable sales from the prior year during the quarter, with footwear being our most negative, followed by women's, accessories, hardgoods, and our best-performing category, men's. The men's category was down only low-single digits in comparable sales during the quarter, reflecting the continued positive brand and fashion trends we talked about on our Q2 call as we were heading into the back-to-school season. We are excited to see some of the newer brands resonating with customers, and we'll look to build on these trends in the holiday season.

從品類角度來看，本季所有品類的可比銷售額均較上年同期下降，其中鞋類是最負面的，其次是女裝、配件、耐久財，以及表現最好的男裝品類。本季男裝類別的可比銷售額僅下降了低個位數，反映出我們在進入返校季節時在第二季度電話會議上討論的持續積極的品牌和時尚趨勢。我們很高興看到一些新品牌與客戶產生共鳴，我們將在假期季節繼續發展這些趨勢。

Net sales include a decrease in transactions and an increase in dollars per transaction. Dollars per transaction were up for the quarter, driven by an increase in average unit retail and an increase in units per transaction.

淨銷售額包括交易數量的減少和每筆交易美元的增加。由於平均零售單位數增加和每筆交易單位數增加，本季每筆交易金額有所上升。

Third quarter gross profit was $73.2 million compared to $82 million in the third quarter of last year. Gross profit as a percentage of sales was 33.8% for the quarter compared with 34.5% in the third quarter of 2022. The 70-basis-point decrease in gross margin was primarily driven by lower sales in the quarter, causing deleverage on our fixed costs.

第三季毛利為 7,320 萬美元，去年第三季毛利為 8,200 萬美元。本季毛利佔銷售額的百分比為 33.8%，而 2022 年第三季為 34.5%。毛利率下降 70 個基點主要是由於本季銷售額下降，導致我們的固定成本去槓桿化。

The key areas driving the change were as follows: Store occupancy costs deleveraged by 120 basis points on lower sales volumes, product margins decreased by 50 basis points, 20-basis-points decrease related to web fulfillment costs and a 10-basis-point decrease related to deleverage in our buying group. These negative impacts to gross margin were partially offset by a benefit of 70 basis points in web shipping costs, 50-basis-points improvement in distribution center costs, and a 20-basis-point reduction in ambulatory shrinkage.

推動這項變化的關鍵領域如下：由於銷售下降，商店佔用成本降低了 120 個基點，產品利潤率降低了 50 個基點，與網路履行成本相關的降低了 20 個基點，並降低了 10 個基點與我們採購團隊的去槓桿化有關。這些對毛利率的負面影響被網路運輸成本提高 70 個基點、配送中心成本改善 50 個基點以及流動損耗減少 20 個基點的好處部分抵消。

SG&A expense was $73.4 million or 33.9% of net sales in the third quarter compared to $71.5 million or 30.1% of net sales a year ago. The 380-basis-point increase in SG&A expenses as a percent of net sales was driven by the following: 160-basis-point increase due to both deleverage of store wages on lower sales as well as increases in wage rates that could not be offset by hours reductions, 110 basis points of deleverage in non-store wages, 80 basis points of deleverage in nonwage store operating costs, and 30 basis points of deleverage in our other corporate costs.

第三季銷售、管理及行政費用為 7,340 萬美元，佔淨銷售額的 33.9%，去年同期為 7,150 萬美元，佔淨銷售額的 30.1%。 SG&A 費用佔淨銷售額的百分比增加了 380 個基點，原因如下： 成長 160 個基點，原因是銷售額下降導致商店工資去槓桿化以及無法抵消的工資率上漲按工時減少計算，非商店工資去槓桿化110個基點，非工資商店營運成本去槓桿化80個基點，其他企業成本去槓桿化30個基點。

Operating loss in the third quarter of 2023 was $0.2 million or 0.1% of net sales compared with operating profit of $10.4 million or 4.4% of net sales last year. Net loss in the third quarter was $2.2 million or $0.12 per diluted share. This compares to net income of $6.9 million or $0.36 per diluted share for the third quarter of 2022.

2023 年第三季的營運虧損為 20 萬美元，佔淨銷售額的 0.1%，而去年的營運利潤為 1,040 萬美元，佔淨銷售額的 4.4%。第三季淨虧損為 220 萬美元，即稀釋後每股虧損 0.12 美元。相比之下，2022 年第三季的淨利潤為 690 萬美元，即稀釋後每股收益 0.36 美元。

We will have a modest tax expense in the quarter despite our pretax operating loss due to the distribution of pretax income across our different tax jurisdictions. This compares to a more normalized effective tax rate of 27.9% in the third quarter last year.

儘管由於稅前收入在不同稅務管轄區的分配而導致稅前營業虧損，但我們本季的稅收支出將不大。相比之下，去年第三季更正常化的有效稅率為 27.9%。

Turning to the balance sheet. The business ended the quarter in a strong financial position. We had cash and current marketable securities of $135.8 million as of October 28, 2023, compared to $141.1 million as of October 29, 2022. The $5.3 million decrease in cash and current marketable securities over the trailing 12 months was driven primarily by capital expenditures, partially offset by cash flow from operations.

轉向資產負債表。該業務在本季結束時財務狀況良好。截至2023 年10 月28 日，我們的現金和流動有價證券為1.358 億美元，而截至2022 年10 月29 日為1.411 億美元。過去12 個月現金和流動有價證券減少530 萬美元，主要是由於資本支出，部分被經營現金流抵銷。

As of October 28, 2023, we have no debt on the balance sheet. We ended the quarter with $175.9 million in inventory, down 0.7% compared with $177.2 million last year. On a constant currency basis, our inventory levels were down 2.3% from last year. This includes high single-digit inventory declines in the North America business, our most challenged market.

截至2023年10月28日，我們的資產負債表上沒有債務。本季末，我們的庫存為 1.759 億美元，比去年的 1.772 億美元下降了 0.7%。以固定匯率計算，我們的庫存水準比去年下降了 2.3%。這包括北美業務（我們面臨的挑戰最大的市場）的高個位數庫存下降。

Now, to our fourth quarter-to-date results. Total sales for the 31-day period ended November 28, 2023, decreased 4.6% compared to the same 31-day period in the prior year ended November 29, 2022. Comparable sales for the 31-day period ended November 28, 2023, were down 6% from the comparable period in the prior year.

現在，我們來看看第四季迄今的業績。截至2023年11月28日止31天期間的總銷售額與截至2022年11月29日止的上一年同期31天期間下降4.6%。截至2023年11月28日止31天期間的可比銷售額為較上年同期下降6%。

From a regional perspective, net sales for our North America business for the 31-day period ended November 28, 2023, decreased 7.3% over the same period last year, with comparable sales over the prior -- over the period, down 6.8%. Meanwhile, our other international business increased 6.2% versus last year, with comparable sales over the same period, decreasing 3.2%. Excluding the impact of foreign currency translation, North America net sales decreased 7.2%, and other international net sales increased 1.5% compared with 2022.

從地區角度來看，截至 2023 年 11 月 28 日的 31 天期間，我們北美業務的淨銷售額比去年同期下降了 7.3%，而同期可比銷售額則下降了 6.8%。同時，我們的其他國際業務較去年增長 6.2%，而同期可比銷售額下降 3.2%。剔除外幣換算的影響，與2022年相比，北美淨銷售額下降7.2%，其他國際淨銷售額成長1.5%。

From a category perspective, the men's category had positive comparable sales fourth quarter to date, while all other categories were down in comparable sales from the prior year. Hardgoods was our most negative category, followed by women's, accessories, and footwear. We are excited about the trends that are emerging in both the men's and footwear categories. Men's was positive low-single-digits quarter to date, while footwear was down low-single digits after being our most negative category during the third quarter.

從品類角度來看，迄今為止，男裝品類第四季度的可比銷售額為正，而所有其他品類的可比銷售額均較上年同期下降。耐用品是我們最負面的類別，其次是女裝、配件和鞋類。我們對男裝和鞋類領域出現的趨勢感到興奮。迄今為止，男裝季度呈現低個位數成長，而鞋類在第三季成為我們最負面的類別後，出現低個位數下降。

The quarter-to-date comparable sales decline was driven by a decrease in transactions, partially offset by an increase in dollars per transaction. Dollars per transaction were up, driven by an increase in units per transaction, partially offset by a modest decrease in average unit retail.

本季度迄今為止的可比銷售額下降是由交易量減少造成的，但每筆交易金額的增加部分抵消了這一影響。由於每筆交易數量的增加，每筆交易的美元有所上升，但部分被平均零售量的小幅下降所抵消。

With respect to our outlook, I want to remind everyone that formulating our guidance involves some inherent uncertainty and complexity in estimating sales, product margin, and earnings growth given the variety of internal and external factors that impact our performance. Our fourth quarter-to-date results have continued to show incremental progress through the trends experienced in the first three quarters of the year. But are still trending below prior-year levels as consumer demand remains under pressure from the continued impact of high inflation on discretionary spending.

關於我們的前景，我想提醒大家，考慮到影響我們業績的各種內部和外部因素，制定我們的指導意見在估計銷售額、產品利潤率和盈利增長方面涉及一些固有的不確定性和複雜性。我們第四季迄今的業績繼續顯示出今年前三個季度經歷的趨勢的逐步進展。但由於高通膨對可自由支配支出的持續影響，消費者需求仍面臨壓力，因此仍低於去年水準。

With that in mind, we are planning total sales for the fourth quarter to be between $275 million and $281 million, including the 53rd week. We expect that our fourth-quarter 2023 product margins will be down roughly 110 basis points from the fourth quarter of fiscal 2022, due to both geographic sales mix across our businesses as well as promotional cadence to move through inventory.

考慮到這一點，我們計劃第四季的總銷售額在 2.75 億美元至 2.81 億美元之間，包括第 53 週。我們預計，由於我們業務的地理銷售組合以及庫存轉移的促銷節奏，我們 2023 年第四季的產品利潤率將比 2022 財年第四季下降約 110 個基點。

Consolidated operating profit as a percent of sales for the fourth quarter is expected to be between 1.5% and 2.5%, resulted in diluted earnings per share of roughly $0.24 to $0.34 for the quarter. As a reminder, our guidance is inclusive of the 53rd week, which is a benefit to sales and earnings in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2023, and a detriment to sales and earnings growth rates in fiscal 2024.

第四季合併營業利潤佔銷售額的百分比預計在 1.5% 至 2.5% 之間，導致該季度攤薄後每股收益約為 0.24 美元至 0.34 美元。提醒一下，我們的指導包括第 53 週，這有利於 2023 財年第四季的銷售和收益，但不利於 2024 財年的銷售和收益成長率。

Now, I want to give you a few updated thoughts on how fourth-quarter guidance rolls into our full-year fiscal-2023 results. Inclusive of our fourth-quarter guidance, we anticipate that total sales will be down in the 8.7% to 9.3% range in fiscal 2023 compared to 2022.

現在，我想就第四季度指引如何納入我們 2023 財年全年業績中提供一些最新想法。考慮到我們第四季的指引，我們預計 2023 財年的總銷售額將比 2022 年下降 8.7% 至 9.3%。

Product margins were down 50 basis points in fiscal 2022 after six consecutive years of growth. Through the first nine months of 2023, product margins were down 60 basis points from the prior year. A portion of this year-to-date decrease has been driven by our international businesses, which have lower product margins increasing as a percentage of total sales. Inclusive of our fourth quarter guidance, we now expect annual product margins to be down approximately 85 basis points due to both the geographic sales mix across our businesses as well as promotional cadence to move through inventory.

在連續六年成長後，2022 財年產品利潤率下降了 50 個基點。 2023 年頭 9 個月，產品利潤率較前一年下降 60 個基點。今年迄今的下降部分是由我們的國際業務推動的，這些業務的產品利潤率較低，佔總銷售額的百分比卻在增加。考慮到我們第四季度的指導，由於我們業務的地理銷售組合以及庫存的促銷節奏，我們現在預計年度產品利潤率將下降約 85 個基點。

Our model is sensitive to sales fluctuations. We have seen deleverage in sales declines across fiscal 2022 and into 2023, while the opposite was true in 2021, when we experienced record sales and operating margin driven by meaningful leverage. We continue to diligently manage expenses as we navigate the current environment, and are positioned to take advantage when conditions improve.

我們的模型對銷售波動很敏感。我們看到 2022 財年和 2023 財年的去槓桿化銷售下降，而 2021 年情況恰恰相反，當時我們在有意義的槓桿作用下實現了創紀錄的銷售和營業利潤率。在應對當前環境的過程中，我們將繼續努力管理費用，並準備在情況改善時利用這一優勢。

For fiscal 2023, we currently anticipate that operating margin will be between negative 2.9% and negative 3.2%, and our loss per share will be roughly $1.16 to $1.26. We currently expect that our pretax earnings for the year will be negative, and that we will have modest tax expense due to the distribution of earnings across our different tax jurisdictions.

對於 2023 財年，我們目前預計營業利潤率將在負 2.9% 至負 3.2% 之間，每股虧損約為 1.16 美元至 1.26 美元。我們目前預計今年的稅前收益將為負，並且由於收益在不同稅務管轄區的分配，我們的稅收支出將適度。

It is important to note that the income levels -- with income levels down at our current guidance levels, changes in the jurisdictional income mix can cause our effective tax rate to fluctuate significantly. We are planning to open 19 new stores during the year, including five stores in North America, 10 stores in Europe, and four stores in Australia.

值得注意的是，收入水平——隨著收入水平下降到我們目前的指導水平，管轄區收入結構的變化可能會導致我們的有效稅率大幅波動。我們計畫年內開設19家新店，其中北美5家、歐洲10家、澳洲4家。

We expect capital expenditures for the full-2023 fiscal year to be between $20 million and $21 million, compared to $26 million in 2022. We expect that depreciation and amortization, excluding non-cash lease expense will be approximately $22 million. We are currently projecting our share count for the full year to be approximately 19.3 million shares.

我們預計 2023 年全年的資本支出將在 2,000 萬至 2,100 萬美元之間，而 2022 年為 2,600 萬美元。我們預計，不包括非現金租賃費用的折舊和攤提將約為 2,200 萬美元。我們目前預計全年的股票數量約為 1,930 萬股。

And with that, operator, we'd like to open the call for your questions.

接線員，我們希望開始電話詢問您的問題。

Thank you. (Operator Instructions) Mitch Kummetz, Seaport.

謝謝。 （操作員指示）Mitch Kummetz，海港。

Hi. Yes, thanks for taking my questions. Chris, you mentioned footwear, some positive inflection there in terms of the trend worse category in 3Q, and it's gotten a lot better in early 4Q. Can you elaborate on that?

你好。是的，感謝您回答我的問題。克里斯，你提到了鞋類，在第三季度趨勢較差的類別方面出現了一些積極的變化，並且在第四季度初已經好很多了。能詳細說明一下嗎？

And I noticed online, you got some promos going called footwear frenzy with some pretty big markdowns. So I'm curious, is the sequential comp improvement, is that markdown driven? Or is it better trend in footwear, better inventory availability in footwear? What can you say about the positive inflection there?

我在網路上註意到，有一些名為「鞋類狂熱」的促銷活動，其中有一些相當大的降價。所以我很好奇，連續的比較改進是降價驅動的嗎？還是鞋類的趨勢更好，鞋類的庫存供應更好？您對那裡的積極變化有何看法？

Sure, Mitch. Yeah, I'll take the question, and then, Rick can add anything he'd like to add. From a footwear perspective, we are happy with the trend line that we've seen in the fourth quarter. We talked about footwear a lot as we move through the year. In fact, even in our first and second quarter calls, highlighting that it was one of the more challenged areas from an inventory perspective.

當然，米奇。是的，我會回答這個問題，然後里克可以添加他想添加的任何內容。從鞋類的角度來看，我們對第四季的趨勢線感到滿意。在這一年裡，我們談了很多關於鞋類的話題。事實上，即使在我們第一季和第二季的電話會議中，也強調從庫存角度來看，這是面臨更大挑戰的領域之一。

We have -- with the downturn in our sales trends, we've taken the management of inventory pretty seriously, and really try to manage inventory carefully, especially so we don't have future markdowns. Footwear has been one of the areas that that's been most challenging, and probably, one of the areas that we've carried a little more inventory than we'd like with the sales downturn throughout 2023.

隨著銷售趨勢的下滑，我們非常認真地對待庫存管理，並努力謹慎管理庫存，特別是這樣我們就不會出現未來的降價。鞋類一直是最具挑戰性的領域之一，由於 2023 年銷售低迷，我們的庫存可能比預期的要多一些。

What I'm happy to report with the fourth quarter is that a large part of that improvement in the trend line is actually driven by new product and full-price product that we're pretty excited about, right? We've been testing a lot of things in footwear, and we've seen some things work as we've transitioned into November in way of we're able to receive some of our new receipts. That being said, there is a portion two of that trend line that is tied to the continued movement to try to move old age.

我很高興在第四季度報告的是，趨勢線的改善很大一部分實際上是由我們非常興奮的新產品和全價產品推動的，對吧？我們一直在鞋類方面測試很多東西，隨著進入 11 月，我們看到了一些東西的效果，我們能夠收到一些新的收據。話雖如此，該趨勢線的第二部分與試圖延緩老化的持續運動有關。

And so, it's a combination of both, but a fair amount driven by full price selling, which again is really our strategy when we look at how to navigate through the cycle we're in. Is that we want to be not just in footwear, but across all our categories and departments full price, full margin, and that's what we're really trying to push.

因此，這是兩者的結合，但相當一部分是由全價銷售驅動的，當我們考慮如何度過我們所處的周期時，這又是我們真正的策略。我們是否希望不僅僅涉足鞋類領域，但在我們所有的類別和部門中，全價、全利潤，這才是我們真正想要推動的。

And I would just add, Mitch, to Chris' comments that we hope that we are finding bottom on some of what have been a multi-year trend on some of our brands being negative and our footwear brands. And as Chris said, too, I think we're also hoping that on our markdown cadence over the next few weeks, we can find the bottom in that cycle too. And then, it is really exciting. I think they're both a brand and some trends that are driving footwear up.

米奇，我想補充一下克里斯的評論，我們希望我們的一些品牌和我們的鞋類品牌多年來的負面趨勢已經見底。正如克里斯所說，我認為我們也希望在接下來幾週的降價節奏中，我們也能找到該週期的底部。然後，這真的很令人興奮。我認為它們既是一個品牌，也是一些推動鞋類發展的趨勢。

And the last thing I would -- that as Chris said, new and full-margin business, and the last thing I'd say that I think we can get encouraged about is footwear cycles in general are experiences that tend to be longer cycles than some. So if we can get moving to the right direction, find the bottom with the brands that have been holding us back a bit, have some good trends and brands going the other direction that I think we may have a longer -- have a good run with the footwear cycle in front of us.

我想說的最後一件事——正如克里斯所說，新的、利潤豐厚的業務，我認為我們可以得到鼓勵的最後一件事是鞋類週期一般來說是比周期更長的體驗一些。因此，如果我們能夠朝著正確的方向前進，找到那些一直阻礙我們的品牌的底部，有一些好的趨勢，而品牌則朝著另一個方向發展，我認為我們可能會有更長的時間——有一個良好的運行鞋類循環就擺在我們面前。

All right. Appreciate that color. And then, I guess my follow-up question. On Europe, can you speak a little bit to what you're seeing from a macro standpoint there and remind us what your exposure is to snow in Blue Tomato and how you see that shaping up early in the season? I know it was two difficult -- or two pretty bad snow seasons the last couple of years, so I don't know what an easy comparison means for that business.

好的。欣賞那個顏色。然後，我想我的後續問題。關於歐洲，您能否從宏觀角度談談您所看到的情況，並提醒我們您在藍番茄中的降雪情況以及您如何看待該季節初期的情況？我知道過去幾年有兩個困難的或兩個相當糟糕的雪季，​​所以我不知道簡單的比較對這項業務意味著什麼。

Yeah. I'll start with the macro, then let Chris address this snow question, Mitch. And Europe, from an inflation perspective, it still has been a little bit more challenged than the US. We've seen more progress with declining rates here, although just -- I think they just announced today, we're seeing some inflation deceleration in Europe. But there are still some challenges there undoubtedly.

是的。我將從宏觀開始，然後讓克里斯解決這個雪問題，米奇。而歐洲，從通貨膨脹的角度來看，它仍然比美國面臨更大的挑戰。我們在利率下降方面看到了更多進展，儘管我認為他們今天剛剛宣布，我們看到歐洲通膨有所放緩。但毫無疑問仍存在一些挑戰。

We also know that there's some lagging with the way statutory pay rates take place in Europe, so we have to work our way through that. But we're hoping that with the statutory rates that get mostly updated at the beginning of the year with declining rates, we'll see more disposable income in consumers' pockets than this last year. We're working in the opposite direction, so -- but it is a very competitive market.

我們也知道，歐洲的法定工資率存在一些滯後，因此我們必須努力解決這個問題。但我們希望，隨著法定利率在年初大部分更新且利率不斷下降，我們將看到消費者口袋裡的可支配收入比去年更多。我們正在朝相反的方向努力，所以——但這是一個競爭非常激烈的市場。

I guess that's the other thing I'd say, is we're seeing just as much price-driven promotion over there as we do here in the US, so it's a very competitive marketplace. And I think our performance on a relative basis shows that we're actually gaining share in the market.

我想這是我要說的另一件事，我們在那裡看到的價格驅動的促銷活動與我們在美國所做的一樣多，所以這是一個競爭非常激烈的市場。我認為我們的相對錶現表明我們實際上正在獲得市場份額。

So -- and then lastly, from a macro perspective, of course, we still -- there's still the uncertainty of the war in Ukraine, which has may have faded to some people's background. But I'll tell you, it's definitely more in the front of the Europeans thinking than it probably is in other parts of the world at this point. So I think we are hopeful that we'll find some benefit on the macro perspective.

因此，最後，從宏觀角度來看，當然，我們仍然存在烏克蘭戰爭的不確定性，這可能已經淡化到一些人的背景中。但我要告訴你的是，目前歐洲人的想法肯定比世界其他地區更重要。所以我認為我們希望能夠從宏觀角度找到一些好處。

I think it may be unique to us. There's a lot of the bigger players that are struggling running losses in Europe. So I'm hopeful that as we move into next year, we -- the combination of statutory rates and declining inflation may be a net positive for us. Chris.

我想這對我們來說可能是獨一無二的。歐洲有很多規模較大的企業都在虧損中苦苦掙扎。因此，我希望，當我們進入明年時，法定利率和通膨下降的結合可能對我們產生淨正面影響。克里斯。

Yeah, and just from a numbers perspective on snow and maybe more important on the business overall, Europe's been one of the stronger parts of our business here, moving across the first nine months of the year. They were up 12% with a strong mid-single-digit comp here within that 12%. So it's not just new units, it's seeing strong comp.

是的，僅從雪的數位角度來看，也許對整體業務更重要，歐洲一直是我們業務中實力最強的部分之一，在今年前九個月都是如此。他們上漲了 12%，在這 12% 的漲幅內，股價處於強勁的中個位數。因此，這不僅僅是新單位，而且是強大的競爭。

We have transitioned obviously, into the fourth quarter and in our November results to date, we did talk about Europe being much softer than what that nine-month trend line is. And a lot of it comes to your question. We have not seen a strong start to snow, and so, that, at this point in the year, doesn't mean that the whole season shut, we certainly have a lot of probably the peak weeks of buying still ahead of us across December and into January.

我們已經明顯過渡到第四季度，在迄今為止的 11 月業績中，我們確實談到歐洲比九個月趨勢線要軟得多。很多都牽涉到你的問題。我們還沒有看到大雪的開始，所以，在今年的這個時候，並不意味著整個季節都關閉了，我們肯定在 12 月份仍然有很多可能的購買高峰週。並進入一月。

And I would also mention, well, I'm not going to release our snow numbers or snow plan to date, we'll recap more of that here in March. This is an area of the business that we're excited about because we're core and it's key to what we're doing.

我還要提到，好吧，我不會發布迄今為止的降雪數字或降雪計劃，我們將在三月在這裡回顧更多內容。這是我們感到興奮的業務領域，因為我們是核心，也是我們所做工作的關鍵。

The other piece of it is how much we've diversified across Europe. So as we have moved into areas like Northern Germany and other markets, we have less of a dependency on snow. So that's a big push of ours and something we work through.

另一個問題是我們在歐洲的多元化程度。因此，當我們進入德國北部等地區和其他市場時，我們對雪的依賴就會減少。所以這是我們的一大推動力，也是我們正在努力解決的問題。

As far as Europe, with the snow mix, it over indexes in October. It over indexes in January because of that dependency on snow. But the rest of the months generally, is in line because of our peaks here we have around holidays.

就歐洲而言，由於降雪的影響，10 月的指數超過了該指數。由於對雪的依賴，一月份的指數超過了指數。但剩下的幾個月總體上是一致的，因為我們在假期前後出現了高峰。

So we're obviously hopeful for cold weather. I think we're well positioned to take advantage of it if it comes, but that has been part of our slower results here in November.

所以我們顯然對寒冷的天氣抱有希望。我認為，如果它到來的話，我們已經做好了充分利用它的準備，但這也是我們 11 月業績放緩的一部分。

All right, thanks again and good luck for holiday.

好的，再次感謝，假期愉快。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Jeff Sinderen, B. Riley.

傑夫辛德倫，B.萊利。

Hello. This is Richard Magnusen in for Jeff Van Sinderen. Thank you for taking our call. Can you speak more about how you are positioned with inventory versus holiday last year, and also, touch on planned promotional cadence this year versus last year? And then, maybe, what trends you are seeing in the digital business since Black Friday weekend?

你好。我是理查德·馬格努森，替補傑夫·範·辛德倫。感謝您接聽我們的電話。您能否多談談與去年假期相比，您在庫存方面的定位，以及今年與去年相比計劃的促銷節奏？然後，也許，自黑色星期五週末以來，您在數位業務中看到了哪些趨勢？

Sure. Okay. Let me take a crack at it here. I mean, from an overall inventory perspective, as we said on the call, inventories were down 0.7%, down 2.3% on a constant currency basis. So if we just step into that, I think we feel pretty good about where overall inventories are.

當然。好的。讓我在這裡嘗試一下。我的意思是，從整體庫存角度來看，正如我們在電話會議上所說，庫存下降了 0.7%，以固定匯率計算下降了 2.3%。因此，如果我們介入這一點，我認為我們對整體庫存狀況感覺很好。

Breaking that down a little bit further, you would find the North America inventory, which is really our toughest market, has been down in the high single-digit area. So we feel really good about how that's lining up in relation to where sales are.

進一步細分，你會發現北美庫存（這確實是我們最艱難的市場）已經下降到高個位數區域。因此，我們對這與銷售額的關係感到非常滿意。

So a lot of our inventory growth is international based, which, again, is more tied to units, and to a lesser extent, some of the landing of products. So I think from an overall inventory perspective, we feel good about where we're at.

因此，我們的許多庫存成長都是基於國際的，這又與單位有關，並且在較小程度上與某些產品的登陸有關。因此，我認為從整體庫存的角度來看，我們對目前的狀況感覺良好。

From a promotional perspective, we did, obviously, foreshadow in our guidance that we were expecting to be more promotional than we were a year ago, which I think is a factor of a couple of things. One, the markets incredibly promotional, and we know that that consumer, our consumer is squeezed, right? With the inflation and some of the things, the more macro environmental things that are happening to them. And so, we are trying to move and be in a spot to work with that customer.

從促銷的角度來看，顯然，我們確實在指導中預示了我們預計會比一年前進行更多的促銷，我認為這是幾個因素的一個因素。第一，市場上的促銷活動令人難以置信，我們知道消費者，我們的消費者受到了擠壓，對吧？隨著通貨膨脹和一些事情，更宏觀的環境問題正在發生在他們身上。因此，我們正在努力轉移並找到與該客戶合作的地點。

That does not mean to us 30% off the entire store, where we're definitely very passionate about how -- what our brands mean to us and how we work with our brands to really push through a full price, full margin. What it means is we have to find areas of value, and ways that we work with that value consumer in this type of market.

這對我們來說並不意味著整個商店的 30% 折扣，我們絕對非常熱衷於我們的品牌對我們意味著什麼，以及我們如何與我們的品牌合作，真正推動全價、全額利潤。這意味著我們必須找到價值領域，以及在此類市場中與價值消費者合作的方式。

So we do have a promotional cadence, as you would expect, that we've planned coming into the holiday, which is a factor both of how do we reach the customer and how do we look at areas of old age. Because our goal, like it is for all of our quarters and holiday seasons particularly, is to end the year in a pretty good inventory position. So we're focused on that from a promotional cadence. I think you see some of that in -- I think Mitch mentioned earlier, the footwear frenzy, but we've got some different promotions out there that we're working through.

因此，正如您所期望的那樣，我們確實有一個促銷節奏，我們計劃在假期到來時進行促銷，這既是我們如何吸引客戶的因素，也是我們如何看待老年領域的因素。因為我們的目標，就像我們所有季度和假期季節的目標一樣，是在年底保持相當好的庫存狀況。因此，我們從促銷節奏開始關注這一點。我想你會在米奇之前提到的鞋類狂熱中看到其中的一些，但我們正在進行一些不同的促銷活動。

And then, lastly, from a digital perspective, what I would say is we are continuing to see a strong demand of our customer to be in stores. We're seeing a good mix of our customer coming to stores, the digital business overall for the third quarter was basically just a little bit better than our overall result, but we continue to see really strong store results.

最後，從數位角度來看，我想說的是，我們繼續看到客戶對商店的強烈需求。我們看到來到商店的客戶組合良好，第三季的數位業務整體基本上只比我們的整體結果好一點，但我們仍然看到非常強勁的商店業績。

Our Black Friday was a really great day for us. It's positive in stores. We know that our customer wants that physical experience. And our web has been a little bit softer than the trend line.

黑色星期五對我們來說真是美好的一天。商店裡的情況是正面的。我們知道我們的客戶想要這種實際體驗。我們的網路比趨勢線稍微軟一點。

So I think we'll roll it all up and talk about that more on the quarter. I think the other piece that's unique to us, and you see this, I believe, when you're on our website, is we're really trying to drive the customer to store. So you'll see it even that digital customer, we're showing them what's available in our store. We're encouraging them to come pick it up in store, driving them to that availability.

因此，我認為我們將把所有內容匯總起來，並在本季度更多地討論這一點。我認為我們獨特的另一件事是，我相信，當您訪問我們的網站時，您會看到這一點，那就是我們確實在努力吸引顧客到商店購物。因此，即使是數位客戶，您也會看到，我們正在向他們展示我們商店中提供的商品。我們鼓勵他們到商店取貨，促使他們到店取貨。

Because we believe over the long term, it's great to get them in front of our sales teams. It's great to get them in our store environment where they can experience everything we have and not just what they're seeing on the pages.

因為我們相信，從長遠來看，讓他們出現在我們的銷售團隊面前是一件很棒的事。很高興讓他們進入我們的商店環境，在那裡他們可以體驗我們擁有的一切，而不僅僅是他們在頁面上看到的內容。

All right. Thank you. Can you update us to what extent you can on plans for store count in FY24? And maybe speak to what terms you're seeing on lease renewals in any new store locations?

好的。謝謝。您能否向我們通報 2024 財年門市數量計畫的最新情況？也許可以談談您在任何新店地點續租時看到的條款是什麼？

Sure. I'm not going to give exact numbers for 2024. That's normally part of our March call. What I would tell you is we're trying to be really smart with our store growth.

當然。我不會給出 2024 年的確切數字。這通常是我們 3 月電話會議的一部分。我要告訴你的是，我們正在努力明智地發展我們的商店。

Last year, we opened 32 stores, which I think are -- we feel really good about the locations and the economics of the deal. Obviously, our sales have been down over that timeframe. So we continue to believe long term, these will be good locations for us. They have not opened as strong as we would have hoped, but I think that's probably more of a macro thing. This year, we reduced that from 32 to 19 stores, I think we feel very similar.

去年，我們開設了 32 家商店，我認為我們對交易的地點和經濟效益感到非常滿意。顯然，我們的銷售額在這段時間內一直在下降。因此，我們仍然相信，從長遠來看，這些將是我們的好地點。它們的開盤並沒有我們希望的那麼強勁，但我認為這可能更多是一個宏觀問題。今年，我們從32家減少到19家，我覺得我們感覺很像。

I think from a lease rate perspective, we are seeing a more optimal lease expense. We just have to be able to drive that top line. I think we'll take those learnings and factor them into 2024. The other piece of this type of environment, this type of market, like a lot of retailers, we're looking at the overall store population for some potential closures. As we all know, there are certain malls and locations across the country that are more challenged than others. And so, that's something that we're spending some time looking through.

我認為從租賃率的角度來看，我們看到了更優化的租賃費用。我們只需要能夠推動營收成長。我認為我們將吸取這些教訓並將其納入 2024 年的考慮中。這種環境的另一部分，這種類型的市場，就像許多零售商一樣，我們正在研究總體商店人口是否有可能關閉。眾所周知，全國各地的某些購物中心和地點比其他購物中心和地點面臨更大的挑戰。因此，我們正在花一些時間研究這一點。

Again, I'm not going speak the exact numbers because we have some work to do. But what I can tell you is we've got a detailed process to look at store closures. We really focus on the four-wall economics of the location, its impact on trade area, it's impact on digital, and then, what's happening in that current environment.

再說一次，我不會說出確切的數字，因為我們還有一些工作要做。但我可以告訴你的是，我們有一個詳細的流程來處理商店關閉問題。我們真正關注的是該地區的四牆經濟學、它對貿易區的影響、它對數位化的影響，以及當前環境中發生的情況。

Is the mall long for the trade area? Are there other malls that might - we might see the volume transitioning to? Or is this a permanent decline or a temporary decline? So we're asking ourselves a lot of those questions. Right now, within our plan, we have about 15 store closures within our current modeling.

商場距離貿易區長嗎？是否還有其他購物中心 - 我們可能會看到銷售轉變？還是這是永久性的下降還是暫時的下降？所以我們問自己很多這樣的問題。目前，根據我們的計劃，我們目前的模型中大約有 15 家商店關閉。

I will tell you that's a number that could increase or decrease depending on how we move through the year and how we're able to work through our teams and with our landlord partners. And so, we're focused on really trying to bring the best Zumiez forward and being in the right locations. And I think as we factor in that into our 2024 store openings and potentially some closures, we'll think about those factors.

我會告訴你，這個數字可能會增加或減少，這取決於我們這一年的進展以及我們如何透過我們的團隊以及與房東合作夥伴合作。因此，我們專注於真正努力讓最好的祖米茲前進並出現在正確的位置。我認為，當我們將 2024 年開店和可能關閉的一些商店考慮在內時，我們會考慮這些因素。

All right, thank you very much. That helps. I'll get back in the queue.

好的，非常感謝。這有幫助。我會回到隊列中。

Okay.

好的。

(Operator Instructions) Mantero Moreno-Cheek, Jefferies.

（操作員說明）Mantero Moreno-Cheek，Jefferies。

Hello. Thanks for taking my call today. I just wanted to know if you could provide more color about what trends are working for men's and how are they differing internationally versus the US? And then, any early reads on holiday trends that were very strong during the Black Friday season? Thank you.

你好。感謝您今天接聽我的電話。我只是想知道您是否可以提供更多關於男裝流行趨勢的信息，以及它們在國際上與美國有何不同？那麼，有沒有關於黑色星期五期間非常強勁的假日趨勢的早期解讀？謝謝。

All right. Let me start. And we again, we're not going to typically talk about brands in particular or specific trends for a lot of reasons, competitive things. I think we have some things that are clearly to our advantage. But I think what I'd like to just comment a bit on is the -- and why -- and particularly, your question why men's is so much better.

好的。讓我開始吧。再說一次，我們通常不會談論特定的品牌或特定的趨勢，原因有很多，例如競爭性的事情。我認為我們有一些明顯對我們有利的事情。但我想我想簡單評論一下的是——以及為什麼——特別是你的問題，為什麼男裝要好得多。

I think what you're really seeing is a reflective strength of our core consumer. And we are disproportionately, a men's retailer. And I think through these challenging times when people are stressed with high inflation, have less discretionary income or wallet share shifting towards services and experiences, it makes our business really tough.

我認為您真正看到的是我們核心消費者的反思力量。而且我們是一家男士零售商。我認為，在這些充滿挑戰的時期，人們承受著高通膨的壓力，可支配收入減少，或錢包份額轉向服務和體驗，這使得我們的業務變得非常艱難。

And one of the things I think that we think a lot about is our core consumer intact. And I have to tell you, I think we -- a lot of our sales loss over the last two years is tied to trend consumers and to declining brands that reach broadly into the trend market and outside of our core market. So when we look at our core consumer, which is predominantly male, this is why the men's business is better.

我認為我們經常思考的一件事是我們的核心消費者完好無損。我必須告訴你，我認為過去兩年我們的大部分銷售損失都與潮流消費者以及廣泛進入潮流市場和核心市場之外的衰落品牌有關。因此，當我們看看我們的核心消費者（主要是男性）時，這就是為什麼男性業務更好的原因。

And we can see this in a number of different ways in the business. One is the strength of our business in the emerging brands launched in '22 and '23. We're seeing really good -- we're seeing those brands work well, resonate with these consumers on the men's side. And it's encouraging for us, I think to see that, and they're running ahead of pace for where we think they would be in a normal brand maturation cycle for these classes of emerging brands. So that also reflects what our core customer wants, that uniqueness, newness in the marketplace that you can only get at Zumiez.

我們可以在業務中透過多種不同的方式看到這一點。一是我們在 22 年和 23 年推出的新興品牌中的業務實力。我們看到了非常好的結果——我們看到這些品牌運作良好，並與男裝消費者產生了共鳴。我認為看到這一點對我們來說是令人鼓舞的，而且他們正在領先於我們認為這些新興品牌處於正常品牌成熟週期的步伐。因此，這也反映了我們的核心客戶想要什麼，即市場上的獨特性、新穎性，而這些只有在 Zumiez 才能獲得。

The other thing I'd tell you that shows again, being a predominantly male consumer that our core consumer is intact and why our men's business is doing better is, again, our dollars per trans are at all-time highs. And it's not just because AUR is higher, it's because UPTs are driving it too. So for me, this is another sign that the core consumer, that young male is really engaged with us in our business.

我要告訴你的另一件事再次表明，作為一個以男性消費者為主的消費者，我們的核心消費者完好無損，以及為什麼我們的男性業務做得更好，再次是，我們的每跨性別者的美元處於歷史最高水準。這不僅是因為 AUR 更高，還因為 UPT 也在推動它。所以對我來說，這是核心消費者，也就是年輕男性真正參與我們業務的另一個跡象。

And they're looking for those -- again, looking for the unique brands, they're also looking for us leading on trends. And I think we are definitely doing this in a lot in the men's area, both -- and this is where our private label brands are really doing well outperforming well. I might ask Chris to comment on that in a moment.

他們正在尋找那些 - 再次，尋找獨特的品牌，他們也在尋找引領潮流的我們。我認為我們肯定在男裝領域做了很多這樣的事情——這也是我們的自有品牌真正表現出色的地方。我可能會請克里斯稍後對此發表評論。

And again, we are not massively discounting, we -- much for these trend-driven categories in men's, we're higher priced than a lot of competitors on these trend categories. So it reflects the strength of our core consumer value and what we do for valuing the spin we bring to these trends and be willing to pay the value that we're offering in these areas. So all these things for me drive up why is our men's business is better, it's because that's where the majority of our core consumers are. And what we're doing is really starting to resonate with them.

再說一遍，我們並沒有大幅打折，對於這些趨勢驅動的男裝類別，我們的價格比這些趨勢類別的許多競爭對手要高。因此，它反映了我們核心消費者價值的強度，以及我們為重視我們為這些趨勢帶來的旋轉所做的努力，並願意為我們在這些領域提供的價值付出代價。所以對我來說，所有這些事情都推動了為什麼我們的男裝業務更好，因為那是我們大多數核心消費者所在的地方。我們正在做的事情確實開始引起他們的共鳴。

Chris, do you want to talk a little bit about private label?

克里斯，你想談談自有品牌嗎？

Yeah. I'll talk a little bit about private label, and then, just catch on the holiday trend part of your question. I mean, from an overall private label perspective, as Rick mentioned, that value message has been extremely positive. We have seen our private label increase about 500 basis points as a percent of sales, looking at this year, year to date through nine months as compared to nine months last year.

是的。我將談論一些有關自有品牌的內容，然後，請注意您問題中的假日趨勢部分。我的意思是，從整體自有品牌的角度來看，正如里克所提到的，這種價值訊息是非常正面的。從今年至今的九個月來看，我們的自有品牌佔銷售額的百分比比去年的九個月成長了約 500 個基點。

So really seeing that business do well. And I think it resonates with what the consumer wants. And it's one of the interesting pieces, as Rick mentioned, just between how brands and private label have moved across the years here.

所以確實看到這項業務做得很好。我認為它與消費者的需求產生了共鳴。正如里克所提到的，這是品牌和自有品牌多年來如何變化的有趣作品之一。

I mean we've seen private label reach into the 20% before in the middle part of the last decade. We saw a drop as low as about 11% or 12% at the end of the decade, and we're back in that 20% range. So it's really interesting to see how it's moved, but been pretty popular with our consumer thus far.

我的意思是，在過去十年的中期，我們已經看到自有品牌達到 20%。到 20 世紀末，我們看到下降幅度約為 11% 或 12%，現在又回到了 20% 的範圍。所以看看它是如何移動的真的很有趣，而且到目前為止很受我們消費者的歡迎。

From an overall holiday trends perspective, what's interesting about November and what we continue to see in the business is it's very similar to what we saw on back to school, where we saw the real strength of the business around the peaks. And we were not alone, I think other retailers were talking about how it got a little slower after back to school. So we saw that as we move past and out of the back-to-school season.

從整體假期趨勢的角度來看，11 月的有趣之處以及我們在業務中繼續看到的情況與我們回到學校時看到的非常相似，在學校中我們看到了業務在高峰期的真正實力。而且我們並不孤單，我認為其他零售商也在談論回到學校後它是如何變慢的。因此，當我們度過返校季節時，我們看到了這一點。

And then, as we moved into this quarter, weeks one and two of November were our tougher week. We definitely saw softer volumes there, getting a little bit better moving into the Thanksgiving week, and then, that week four of November was our strongest week. We were roughly flat in total sales.

然後，當我們進入本季度時，11 月的第一周和第二周是我們最艱難的一周。我們確實看到了成交量的疲軟，進入感恩節那週情況有所好轉，然後，11 月的第四週是我們最強勁的一周。我們的總銷售額大致持平。

So I think that's a good sign in regards to what we should expect over the next few weeks as you would imagine, as we lay this out by week, and maybe more importantly, by day. Those days and week, that week ahead of Christmas will be very strong with Christmas hitting on a Monday.

因此，我認為這對我們在接下來的幾週內應該期待的事情來說是一個好兆頭，正如您所想像的那樣，因為我們按週，也許更重要的是按天進行安排。聖誕節前的那幾天和那一周將會非常強勁，聖誕節將在星期一到來。

So our forecast, our guidance is obviously pretty in line with what our trend rate is if you exclude the 53rd week, and we would expect that week before Christmas, and even a week after Christmas to be the strongest weeks of the remaining weeks left for us.

因此，如果排除第 53 週，我們的預測、指導顯然與我們的趨勢率相當一致，我們預計聖誕節前一周，甚至聖誕節後一周將是剩餘幾周中表現最強勁的一周。我們。

Thank you. And best of luck with the holiday season.

謝謝。祝您假期好運。

Appreciate it. Thanks.

欣賞它。謝謝。

Mitch Kummetz, Seaport.

米奇·庫梅茨，海港。

Yeah, thanks for taking our follow up. Rick, I just wanted to ask you about skate hardgoods, maybe a philosophical question, I don't know. But when I reflect on that business over the last 10-plus years, most recently, we had COVID that drove a lot of demand. Before that, it was maybe penny boards. Before that, it was long boards.

是的，感謝您接受我們的跟進。里克，我只是想問你有關滑板耐用品的問題，也許是一個哲學問題，我不知道。但當我回顧過去十多年的業務時，最近的新冠疫情推動了大量需求。在此之前，它可能是便士板。在此之前，它是長木板。

At this point, it looks like that business is probably going to be at its lowest level of penetration in a long time, if not the last 20 years. Have we gotten down to just the core kids that skate that are buying components? And is that a pretty consistent business? Is that where you think skate is right now? And if that's the case, does that mean we could be getting close to a bottom there?

目前看來，該業務的滲透率可能將處於很長一段時間內（即使不是過去 20 年來）的最低水平。我們是否只關注那些購買組件的核心滑板孩子？這是一項非常穩定的業務嗎？你認為現在滑板是這樣嗎？如果是這樣的話，這是否意味著我們可能已經接近底部了？

I appreciate the question, Mitch. And it's a good question. Skate is -- while it's not anywhere closest to our biggest department, it's an important department for the essence of what we're about. And it's also, I think, the young skate kid continues to lead that young person, both male and female, who like the lead on trend. And so, that's particularly why I think that customer is so important to us.

我很欣賞這個問題，米奇。這是一個好問題。滑板雖然不是我們最大的部門，但它是我們業務本質的重要部門。我認為，年輕的滑板小子也將繼續引領那些喜歡引領潮流的年輕人，無論是男性或女性。因此，這就是為什麼我認為客戶對我們如此重要。

And so, I get -- I'll add a little bit more color to your -- to what you said. Because as you know well, right, we had a huge state run up in the first part of the 2010s running all the way up there. We had the big-long-board trend that got boomed up there, and then, it all collapsed in '15 and '16. And then, we had some fallow years. And then, literally in February '19, the skate cycle took off everywhere for us around the globe.

所以，我明白──我會為你的──你所說的增添一點色彩。因為正如你所知道的，在 2010 年代初期，我們的州政府一路高歌猛進。我們有大長板趨勢，在那裡蓬勃發展，然後，它在 15 年和 16 年全部崩潰。然後，我們度過了一些休閒時光。然後，就在 19 年 2 月，滑板自行車在全球各地開始流行。

And we couldn't even actually pin down what it was. We had a huge year in skate hardgoods in 2019. We're up about close to 50% over 2018 and 2019. And then, with the pandemic, much like with bikes, I think we move demand for skate hardgoods forward.

我們甚至無法真正確定它是什麼。 2019 年，我們在滑板耐用品領域度過了豐收的一年。我們比2018 年和2019 年增長了近50%。然後，隨著疫情的蔓延，就像自行車一樣，我認為我們推動了對滑板耐用品的需求。

And I think this did accelerate the women's participation in skateboarding. But I think a lot of demand got moved forward, and we ran up close to another 50% gain in 2020.

我認為這確實加速了女性對滑板運動的參與。但我認為很多需求都在向前推進，2020 年我們的增幅接近 50%。

Then, even with the stimulus spending in 2021, which, as we all know, was gigantic for our business, and we ran up 20% plus in 2021, skate hardgoods declined. And that reflects the nature of, I think, what you're talking about, Mitch, the impact of the pandemic on skate hardgoods.

然後，儘管 2021 年的刺激支出（眾所周知，這對我們的業務來說是巨大的），而且我們在 2021 年增長了 20% 以上，但滑板耐用品卻出現了下滑。我認為，這反映了米奇，你所談論的本質，即疫情對滑板耐用品的影響。

And you layer all of that over the fact that I think we own more share than ever in the skate hardgoods world in the specialty retail world of skate hardgoods. I think we own the biggest share that there is out there today. And we peaked at our highest share, I think it was in 2020, Chris?

所有這一切都基於這樣一個事實：我認為我們在滑板耐用品專業零售世界中擁有比以往更多的份額。我認為我們擁有當今最大的份額。我們的份額達到了最高點，我想那是在 2020 年，克里斯？

Yeah. At 19%.

是的。為 19%。

19% of sales. That, we never got close to that, but that speaks again to the demand pull forward that happened during the pandemic.

銷售額的19%。我們從未接近過這一點，但這再次說明了疫情期間發生的需求拉動。

Now, today, and I think we're going to forecast this year, I won't give you the exact percentage, but I do think that as we forecast the decline with the happened decline in '21; despite stimulus, decline in '22; and '23, which have been significant, and I think even outsized for our sales declines. I think we're very close to as you're suggesting, Mitch, the lowest penetration may be an all-time low in skate hardgoods as penetration of our mix.

現在，今天，我認為我們將預測今年，我不會給你確切的百分比，但我確實認為，正如我們預測的那樣，隨著 21 年發生的下降；儘管有刺激措施，22 年仍出現下降；和'23，這非常重要，我認為甚至比我們的銷售額下降還要嚴重。我認為我們非常接近你所建議的，米奇，最低的滲透率可能是滑板耐用品中我們混合物的滲透率的歷史最低水平。

Now, that said, finding the bottom will be really good here because we don't have to drag, right, of the big declines we've taken over the last three years. So finding the bottom, it just flat a benefit in that. But our experience is that we'll probably bounce along the bottom for a couple of years before we see it next -- for 12, 18, 24 months before we see the next upcycle would be what our experience in skate hardgoods would tell us.

話雖如此，現在找到底部確實很好，因為我們不必拖累過去三年來的大幅下跌。所以找到底部，這只是一個好處。但我們的經驗是，我們可能會在底部反彈幾年，然後才能看到下一次——12、18、24個月，然後我們才能看到下一個升級週期，這就是我們在滑板耐用品方面的經驗告訴我們的。

All right. Thanks again.

好的。再次感謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you. I'm showing no further questions at this time. I'd like to turn the call back over to Rick Brooks for any closing remarks.

謝謝。我目前沒有提出任何進一步的問題。我想將電話轉回給里克·布魯克斯，讓其結束語。

All right. As always, we always appreciate your interest in what's happening here in our business. So we thank you all, and we wish you the best for a great holiday season. We'll talk to you in March. Thank you, everybody.

好的。一如既往，我們始終感謝您對我們業務中發生的事情感興趣。因此，我們感謝大家，並祝福你們有個愉快的假期。我們將在三月與您交談。謝謝大家。

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's conference. Thank you all for participating, and have a great day. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。女士們、先生們，今天的會議到此結束。感謝大家的參與，祝您有美好的一天。您現在可以斷開連線。