使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Operator
Greetings and welcome to the Zions Bancorp Q1 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.
問候並歡迎參加 Zions Bancorp 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。(操作員指示)提醒一下,本次會議正在錄音。
It is now my pleasure to introduce Shannon Drage. Thank you, Shannon. You may begin.
現在我很高興介紹 Shannon Drage。謝謝你,香農。你可以開始了。
Shannon Drage - Senior Vice President, Director of Financial Planning and Analysis and Acting Director of Investor Relations
Shannon Drage - Senior Vice President, Director of Financial Planning and Analysis and Acting Director of Investor Relations
Thank you, Julian, and good evening, everyone. Welcome to our conference call to discuss the first-quarter earnings for 2025. My name is Shannon Drage, Senior Director of Investor Relations.
謝謝你,朱利安,大家晚上好。歡迎參加我們的電話會議,討論 2025 年第一季的收益。我叫 Shannon Drage,是投資者關係資深總監。
I would like to remind you that during this call, we will be making forward-looking statements. Please note that actual results may differ materially. We encourage you to review the disclaimer in the press release or slide 2 of the presentation dealing with forward-looking information and the presentation of non-GAAP measures, which applies equally to statements made during this call. A copy of the earnings release as well as the presentation are available on zionsbancorporation.com.
我想提醒您,在本次電話會議中,我們將做出前瞻性陳述。請注意,實際結果可能會有重大差異。我們鼓勵您查看新聞稿或簡報第 2 張投影片中有關前瞻性資訊和非公認會計準則指標陳述的免責聲明,這些免責聲明同樣適用於本次電話會議期間的聲明。收益報告和簡報的副本可在 zionsbancorporation.com 上取得。
For our agenda today, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Harris Simmons will provide opening remarks. Following Harris's comments, Ryan Richards, our Chief Financial Officer, will review our financial results. Also with us today are Scott McLean, President and Chief Operating Officer; Derek Stewart, Chief Cre Officer; and Chris Kyriakakis, Chief Risk Officer.
在我們今天的議程中,董事長兼執行長哈里斯·西蒙斯將致開幕詞。根據哈里斯的評論,我們的財務長瑞安理查茲 (Ryan Richards) 將審查我們的財務結果。今天與我們一起出席的還有總裁兼營運長 Scott McLean、首席創意長 Derek Stewart 和首席風險長 Chris Kyriakakis。
After our prepared remarks, we will hold a question-and-answer session. This call is scheduled for one hour. I will now turn the time over to Harris Simmons.
在我們準備好的發言之後,我們將舉行問答環節。此次通話預計可持續一小時。現在我將時間交給哈里斯·西蒙斯。
Harris Simmons - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Harris Simmons - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Thanks very much, Shannon, and good evening, everyone. We're generally pleased with our fundamental performance and the financial results for the first quarter, which reflects meaningful year-over-year improvement.
非常感謝,香農,大家晚上好。我們對我們的基本表現和第一季的財務表現總體上感到滿意,這反映出同比有顯著的改善。
Our ratio of non-performing assets to loans, leases, and other real estate owned remains stabled last quarter, though up somewhat from last year. That loan charge-offs remained low. And our allowance for credit losses is well aligned with the current economic outlook. We feel well positioned for what could be a period of increased economic uncertainty.
上個季度,我們的不良資產與貸款、租賃和其他自有房地產的比率保持穩定,但比去年同期略有上升。貸款沖銷額仍然很低。我們的信貸損失準備金與當前的經濟前景相符。我們感覺自己已經做好了充分準備,可以應對可能出現的經濟不確定性加劇的時期。
I suspect that we'd all agree that prognostication about loan growth, unemployment, the path of interest rates, and other drivers of performance seems especially challenging at the present moment. Consistent with our determination to build an AI-enabled culture, I asked ChatGPT for help in explaining the world we're now living in. I got this.
我想我們都同意,目前對貸款成長、失業率、利率走勢和其他業績驅動因素的預測似乎特別具有挑戰性。秉持著我們建構人工智慧文化的決心,我請求 ChatGPT 幫忙解釋我們現在所處的世界。我明白了。
Trump's tariffs have caused quite a fuss with markets unsure who to trust. Will prices ascend? Will trade wars extend? Or will growth just stall in the dust? That actually seemed to explain the times that we're in pretty well, I thought.
川普的關稅引起了不小的騷動,市場不知道該相信誰。價格會漲嗎?貿易戰會延續嗎?或者成長將只是停滯不前?我認為這實際上似乎很好地解釋了我們所處的時代。
In our presentation materials and the remarks that Ryan will make, we're providing an outlook for the first quarter of 2026. Well, the outlook guidance always comes with disclaimers about the limitations of forward-looking statements. It's worth emphasizing the particular difficulty right now for us and everybody else in this industry in forecasting results a year from now.
在我們的演示材料和 Ryan 的發言中,我們提供了對 2026 年第一季的展望。嗯,展望指引總是附帶有關前瞻性陳述局限性的免責聲明。值得強調的是,對於我們以及這個行業的其他所有人來說,預測一年後的業績目前都面臨著特殊的困難。
While this heightened uncertainty has led to notable market volatility, the reality is that managing risk and uncertainty is a core part of what we do, and it doesn't distract from our commitment to serving our customers and improving customers' experiences with us.
雖然這種高度的不確定性導致了明顯的市場波動,但事實是,管理風險和不確定性是我們工作的核心部分,它不會分散我們服務客戶和改善客戶體驗的承諾。
On that note, we are pleased to once again be recognized by Coalition Greenwich as one of the top 10 banks in the industry and garnering Best Bank Awards in a variety of categories, including being ranked third nationally and serving middle market clients. All is measured by the results of approximately 25,000 surveys conducted across the country.
就此而言,我們很高興再次被聯盟格林威治評為業內十大銀行之一,並在多個類別中獲得最佳銀行獎,包括全國排名第三和服務中端市場客戶。所有這些都是根據在全國範圍內進行的約 25,000 份調查的結果來衡量的。
During a time of increased uncertainty for businesses and consumers, we'll be paying particular attention to staying close to clients and understanding their challenges and helping them in every way we prudently can in the months ahead.
在企業和消費者面臨不確定性增加的時期,我們將特別注意與客戶保持密切聯繫,了解他們面臨的挑戰,並在未來幾個月盡我們所能,謹慎地幫助他們。
We were pleased to welcome new customers to our California Bank and Trust affiliate following the acquisition of four branches in the Coachella Valley of California from First Bank of Denver, Colorado in late March. This acquisition added approximately $630 million of deposits and $420 million in loans, which when added to our own existing business in that market, gives us a meaningful share of what is really a very attractive market in Southern California.
繼三月底從科羅拉多州丹佛第一銀行收購加州科切拉谷的四家分行後,我們很高興歡迎新客戶加入我們的加州銀行和信託分行。此次收購增加了約 6.3 億美元的存款和 4.2 億美元的貸款,加上我們在該市場的現有業務,使我們在南加州這個非常有吸引力的市場中佔有相當大的份額。
As pleased as we are with the new customers we're serving there, we're equally pleased with the quality of the employees who joined our team as a result of this acquisition. They're absolutely first rate, and we welcome them to our team.
我們對在那裡服務的新客戶感到高興,同時我們對透過此次收購加入團隊的員工的素質也同樣感到滿意。他們絕對是一流的,我們歡迎他們加入我們的團隊。
Shifting now to financial results for the quarter, key metrics for the quarter are presented on slide 3. Net earnings for the quarter were $169 million, or $1.13 per share, representing an 18% improvement compared to the same period last year. Compared to the prior quarter, earnings declined due to the seasonality and share-based compensation and payroll taxes, reduced day counts, a decrease in non-interest income at a higher effective tax rate, which I'll discuss in a moment.
現在轉到本季的財務業績,本季的關鍵指標在投影片 3 上顯示。本季淨利為 1.69 億美元,即每股 1.13 美元,較去年同期成長 18%。與上一季相比,收益下降是由於季節性因素、股權激勵和工資稅、工作天數減少、有效稅率提高導致非利息收入減少,我稍後會討論這些。
This was somewhat offset by reduced provision of expense and reduced preferred dividend costs. The net interest margin increased for the fifth consecutive quarter to 3.10% compared to 3.05% in the previous quarter. Improvement during the quarter reflects the downward repricing of a significant portion of both customer and brokered term deposits and continued discipline and repricing across the other deposit categories, particularly in the highest cost products.
這在一定程度上被費用撥備減少和優先股股息成本減少所抵消。淨利差連續第五個季度上升至3.10%,而上一季為3.05%。本季的改善反映了很大一部分客戶和經紀定期存款的向下重新定價,以及其他存款類別(特別是成本最高的產品)的持續紀律和重新定價。
The average cost of interest-bearing deposits decreased by 26 basis points compared to the previous quarter and by 55 basis points versus the year-ago period. First-quarter adjusted pre-provision net revenue, or PPNR, was $267 million, an increase of 10% from the $242 million achieved a year ago. The efficiency ratio was seasonally higher though improved over last year's period.
計息存款平均成本較上一季下降26個基點,較去年同期下降55個基點。第一季調整後的撥備前淨收入(PPNR)為 2.67 億美元,較去年同期的 2.42 億美元成長 10%。儘管與去年同期相比效率比有所提高,但季節性較高。
Deposits decreased both on an ending and average basis in the first quarter, including the impact of Coachella-related deposits added in late March. Non-interest bearing deposits remained relatively stable at 33% of total deposits. Average loans experience modest growth of 0.5% on a linked quarter basis.
第一季存款期末和平均數均有所下降,其中包括 3 月底增加的與科切拉音樂節相關的存款的影響。無利息存款維持相對穩定,佔總存款的33%。平均貸款季增 0.5%。
Net loan losses for the quarter were $16 million, or 11 basis points annualized, and included an $8 million charge-off of a single commercial and industrial loan. There were no charge-offs in the CRE portfolio, and the non-accrual ratio of CRE loans remained low at 43 basis points.
本季淨貸款損失為 1,600 萬美元,折合年率為 11 個基點,其中包括一筆 800 萬美元的商業和工業貸款沖銷。商業不動產投資組合中沒有沖銷,商業不動產貸款的非應計比率仍維持在43個基點的低點。
Incidentally, over the past five years during which there have been CRE-related concerns about the Amazon effect on retail properties, the impact of increased work from home on office properties and somewhat weaker performance in the multi-family segment of the industry, annual net charge offs in our $13.6 billion CRE portfolio have averaged a mere 1 basis point, which by most any measure is really outstanding performance over a five-year period.
順便說一句,在過去五年中,人們一直擔心與 CRE 相關的亞馬遜對零售物業的影響、在家辦公增加對辦公物業的影響以及該行業多戶型住宅領域的表現略弱,但我們 136 億美元的 CRE 投資組合的年度淨沖銷平均僅為 1 個基點,以任何標準衡量,這在五年期間都是非常出色的表現。
Moving to slide 4. Diluted earnings per share, again, was $1.13 compared to $1.34 in the prior period and $0.96 in the year-ago period. This quarter's results include an 11% per share charge to income tax expense related to a required revaluation of our deferred tax assets associated with accumulated other comprehensive income, all resulting from a beneficial Utah tax law change on securities portfolio income. This one-time revaluation will largely accrete back in income over the life of the related securities.
移至幻燈片 4。每股攤薄收益再次為 1.13 美元,而上一季為 1.34 美元,去年同期為 0.96 美元。本季度的業績包括每股 11% 的所得稅費用,這與我們累計其他綜合收入相關的遞延稅項資產的必要重估有關,所有這些都是由於猶他州稅法對證券投資組合收入有利的變化造成的。這項一次性重估將在相關證券的有效期限內大幅增加收入。
The law change is beneficial because apart from the timing difference of the deferred tax asset accounting treatment, the legislative change will serve to reduce the tax on investment income in future periods.
法律變更是有益的,因為除了遞延所得稅資產會計處理的時間性差異之外,立法變更將有助於減少未來期間的投資所得稅。
Slide 5 provides a five-quarter view of pre-provision net revenue. As previously noted on an adjusted basis of first-quarter results of $267 million, reflect an improvement of 10% over the prior-year period.
投影片 5 提供了撥備前淨收入的五個季度視圖。如前所述,第一季調整後的業績為 2.67 億美元,比去年同期成長了 10%。
With that high-level overview, I'll turn the time over to our Chief Financial Officer, Ryan Richards, for additional details related to our performance. Ryan?
在介紹完這一高層概述後,我將把時間交給我們的財務長瑞安·理查茲 (Ryan Richards),以了解有關我們業績的更多詳細資訊。瑞安?
R. Ryan Richards - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
R. Ryan Richards - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Thank you, Harris, and good evening, everyone. Building on Harris' remarks, I will begin by deconstructing the components and drivers of pre-provision net revenue.
謝謝你,哈里斯,大家晚上好。基於哈里斯的言論,我將首先解構撥備前淨收入的組成部分和驅動因素。
Beginning on slide 6, you will see the five-quarter trend for net interest income and net interest margin. As Harris noted, the net interest margin increased for the fifth consecutive quarter. Net interest income increased by $38 million relative to the first quarter of 2024 and declined by $3 million relative to the prior quarter, with the decrease driven by two fewer days.
從第 6 張投影片開始,您將看到淨利息收入和淨利息收益率的五個季度趨勢。正如哈里斯所指出的,淨利差連續第五個季度上升。淨利息收入較 2024 年第一季增加了 3,800 萬美元,較上一季減少了 300 萬美元,原因是減少了兩天。
Slide 7 presents additional details on changes in the net interest margin. The linked-quarter waterfall chart on the left outlines the changes in both rate and volume for key components of the net interest margin. The net interest margin expanded by 5 basis points sequentially due primarily to lower cost of deposits.
幻燈片 7 展示了淨利差變化的更多細節。左側的季度瀑布圖概述了淨利差主要組成部分的利率和數量的變化。淨利差較上季擴大 5 個基點,主要因為存款成本下降。
Against the year-ago quarter, the right-hand chart on this slide presents the 16-basis-point improvement in the margin, which also benefited from the improved cost of deposits as well as improved borrowing costs, reflecting both lower rates paid and a $570 million decrease in average borrow funds year over year.
與去年同期相比,此投影片右側的圖表顯示利潤率提高了 16 個基點,這也受益於存款成本的改善以及借貸成本的改善,反映了支付的利率降低以及平均借款資金同比減少 5.7 億美元。
Moving to non-interest income and revenue on slide 8. Customer-related income was $158 million for the quarter, a decrease of 10% on a linked-quarter basis and 4% increase versus the year-ago quarter. A reduction in capital market fees versus the prior quarter's record performance was the primary driver for the sequential decline in customer-related fee income.
轉到第 8 張投影片上的非利息收入和收益。本季客戶相關營收為 1.58 億美元,季減 10%,年增 4%。與上一季的創紀錄表現相比,資本市場費用的減少是導致客戶相關費用收入連續下降的主要原因。
While down from the prior quarter, the first quarter marked the third best quarter for capital markets in our history. As indicated on page 3 of the earnings release, effective this quarter, the capital markets fees income statement line item includes the fair value and non-hedged derivative income also referred to as credit valuation adjustment, or CVA income. This income has historically been presented in non-customer related fees.
儘管較上一季有所下降,但第一季仍是我們歷史上資本市場表現最好的第三季。如收益報告第 3 頁所示,從本季度開始,資本市場費用損益表項目包括公允價值和非對沖衍生品收入,也稱為信用估值調整或 CVA 收入。這項收入歷來以非客戶相關費用的形式呈現。
Prior periods have been reclassed for comparability and CVA income or loss continues to be excluded from adjusted revenues used in PDNR and the efficiency ratio calculation.
為便於比較,前期數據已被重新分類,且 CVA 收入或損失繼續被排除在 PDNR 和效率比率計算中使用的調整後收入之外。
The chart on the right side of this page presents both total revenue and adjusted revenue for the most recent five quarters, which were impacted by the factors previously noted for net interest income and customer-related fee income. Our outlook for customer-related fee income for the first quarter of 2026 is slightly to moderately increasing relative to the first quarter of 2025 and contemplates lower capital markets growth than anticipated in the prior quarter given current economic uncertainty.
本頁右側的圖表顯示了最近五個季度的總收入和調整後收入,這些收入受到先前提到的淨利息收入和客戶相關費用收入因素的影響。我們對 2026 年第一季客戶相關費用收入的預期相對於 2025 年第一季略有增加,並且考慮到當前經濟的不確定性,我們預計資本市場成長將低於上一季的預期。
Slide 9 presents adjusted non-interest expense in the lighter blue bars. Adjusted expenses increased by $24 million versus the prior quarter to $533 million. This is largely attributable to first-quarter seasonality related to share-based compensation and payroll taxes. Deposit insurance and regulatory expense also increased $5 million during the quarter, due in large part to increase assessment and view of classified asset balances in the recent periods as well as activity in the fourth quarter of 2024.
投影片 9 以淺藍色長條顯示調整後的非利息支出。調整後支出較上一季增加 2,400 萬美元,達到 5.33 億美元。這在很大程度上歸因於第一季與股權激勵和工資稅相關的季節性因素。本季存款保險和監管費用也增加了 500 萬美元,這在很大程度上是由於近期對分類資產餘額的評估和查看增加以及 2024 年第四季的活動。
Reported GAAP expenses at $538 million increased by $29 million compared to the prior quarter. Our outlook for adjusted non-interest expense for the quarter -- for the first quarter of 2026 is slightly to moderately increasing relative to the first quarter of 2025.
報告的 GAAP 費用為 5.38 億美元,與上一季相比增加了 2,900 萬美元。我們對 2026 年第一季調整後非利息支出的預期相對於 2025 年第一季將略有至中度成長。
Slide 10 presents five-quarter trends in our average loans and deposits. Average loans increased 0.5% over the previous quarter and 3% over the year-ago period. Total loans declined by 8 basis points sequentially -- to lower yield, I should say, declined by 8 basis points sequentially.
投影片 10 展示了我們平均貸款和存款的五個季度趨勢。平均貸款比上一季增加 0.5%,比去年同期增加 3%。總貸款環比下降 8 個基點 - 收益率較低,應該說,環比下降 8 個基點。
Our outlook for period-end loan balances for the first quarter of 2026 is stable to slightly increasing relative to the first quarter of 2025 and assumes growth will be slower in the near term as customers await clarity on tariff impacts. Growth is expected to be led by commercial loans offset somewhat by managed declines in mortgages and commercial real estate exposures as payoffs are expected to outpace new originations.
我們對 2026 年第一季期末貸款餘額的展望是穩定,相對於 2025 年第一季度略有增加,並假設由於客戶等待關稅影響的明確性,短期內增長將會放緩。預計成長將由商業貸款帶動,但由於預計還款速度將超過新發放貸款速度,抵押貸款和商業房地產風險敞口的下降將在一定程度上抵消這一增長。
Average deposit balances are presented on the right side of the slide. Relative to the prior quarter, total average deposits declined 1.9% due to seasonal outflows in early January. This decline was only slightly offset by the $78 million impact of full-quarter average deposit balances from the Coachella Valley branch acquisitions in late March that Harris alluded to earlier.
平均存款餘額顯示在投影片的右側。與上一季相比,由於 1 月初的季節性資金流出,總平均存款下降了 1.9%。這一下降僅被哈里斯先前提到的 3 月底科切拉谷分行收購帶來的 7,800 萬美元全季平均存款餘額的影響稍微抵消。
Average non-interest-bearing deposits declined approximately $600 million, or 2.4% compared to the prior quarter. The cost of deposits declined by 17 basis points to 1.76%. On average, the rate on interest-bearing deposits was 2.61% for the quarter compared to 2.87% in the prior period. The interest-bearing deposit spot rate at large month end was 2.54%, and the total deposit spot rate was 1.7%.
平均無息存款與上一季相比減少約 6 億美元,降幅為 2.4%。存款成本下降17個基點至1.76%。平均而言,本季計息存款利率為 2.61%,上一季為 2.87%。大月末計息存款即期利率為2.54%,總存款即期利率為1.7%。
Slide 11 provides additional details on funding sources and total funding cost trends. Presented on the left are ending deposit balances, which decreased by $531 million versus the prior quarter. including a [$319 million] decrease in interest-bearing deposits that was partially offset by an $88 million increase in noninterest-bearing demand deposits.
投影片 11 提供了有關資金來源和總融資成本趨勢的更多詳細資訊。左側顯示的是期末存款餘額,與上一季相比減少了 5.31 億美元,其中包括計息存款減少 [3.19 億美元],但部分被無息活期存款增加 8800 萬美元所抵消。
As noted by Harris, the four acquired Coachella Valley branches added approximately $630 million in period-end deposits.
哈里斯指出,被收購的四家科切拉谷分行增加了約 6.3 億美元的期末存款。
On the right side, average balances for our key funding categories are shown along with the total funding cost. As seen on this chart, our total funding costs declined by 11 basis points during the quarter and include a full-quarter impact of a fourth-quarter subordinated note issuance of last year, which increased quarterly debt expense but was more than offset in earnings by the reduction in preferred dividends.
右側顯示了我們主要融資類別的平均餘額以及總融資成本。從該圖可以看出,本季度我們的總融資成本下降了 11 個基點,其中包括去年第四季度發行次級票據對整個季度的影響,這增加了季度債務支出,但優先股股息的減少在收益上抵消了這一影響。
Moving to slide 12. Our investment portfolio exists primarily to be a storehouse of funds to absorb customer-driven balance sheet changes, allowing for deep liquidity through the repo market. Here, we present our securities and money market investment portfolios over the last five quarters.
移至投影片 12。我們的投資組合主要作為資金倉庫,吸收客戶驅動的資產負債表變化,從而透過回購市場實現深度流動性。這裡,我們展示了過去五個季度的證券和貨幣市場投資組合。
Maturities, principal amortization, and prepayment-related cash flows of our securities portfolio were $743 million in the quarter, or $265 million when considered net of reinvestment. The paydown and reinvestment of lower-yielding security continues to contribute to the favorable remix of our earning assets as well as a means to manage down our wholesale funding costs. The duration of our investment securities portfolio, which is a measure of price sensitivity to changes in interest rates, is estimated at four years.
本季度,我們證券投資組合的到期、本金攤銷和預付款相關現金流為 7.43 億美元,扣除再投資後為 2.65 億美元。低收益證券的償還和再投資繼續促進了我們的獲利資產的良好組合,同時也成為降低批發融資成本的一種手段。我們的投資證券組合的久期(衡量價格對利率變化的敏感度)估計為四年。
While we have provided standard parallel interest rate shock sensitivity measures on slide 28 in the appendix of this presentation, we present on slide 13 our view of net interest income sensitivity, assuming rates follow the implied path as of March 31, which assumes the Fed funds target reaches 3.75% by the first quarter of 2026.
雖然我們在本簡報附錄的第 28 張投影片中提供了標準平行利率衝擊敏感度指標,但我們在第 13 張投影片中介紹了我們對淨利息收入敏感度的看法,假設利率遵循截至 3 月 31 日的隱含路徑,即假設聯邦基金目標在 2026 年第一季達到 3.75%。
As expectations on the rate path continue to evolve, we have brought back our more dynamic view of latent and emerging interest rate sensitivity. As a reminder, this slide presents a model view of rate sensitivity based on static balance sheet assumptions, while allowing for some additional migration of non-interest-bearing deposits into higher cost time deposits. This view does not include expected balance sheet changes, pricing strategies, and other strategic opportunities that will be included in the net interest income guidance.
隨著對利率走勢的預期不斷演變,我們重新對潛在和新興的利率敏感度有了更動態的看法。提醒一下,本投影片展示了基於靜態資產負債表假設的利率敏感性模型視圖,同時允許將一些無息存款額外遷移到成本更高的定期存款。此觀點不包括預期的資產負債表變化、定價策略以及將納入淨利息收入指引的其他策略機會。
With those assumptions in mind, the latent sensitivity is estimated to be 8.9%, which assumes no future rate cuts, but reflects the net interest income path based on past rate movements that have not yet been fully realized in revenues. When combined with the emergent sensitivity, which includes the incremental impact of the future rate changes included in the forward curve, the implied net interest income in the first quarter of 2026 is modeled to be 2.6% -- excuse me, 4.6% higher when compared to the first quarter of 2025. We also provide 100-basis-point shocks to the rates applied by the four path, which suggests a sensitivity arrangement between 2.1% and 6.6%.
考慮到這些假設,潛在敏感度估計為 8.9%,假設未來不會降息,但反映了基於過去利率變動的淨利息收入路徑,這些路徑尚未完全實現在收入中。結合新興敏感性(包括遠期曲線中包含的未來利率變化的增量影響),2026 年第一季的隱含淨利息收入預計為 2.6%——抱歉,與 2025 年第一季相比高出 4.6%。我們也對四條路徑所應用的利率提供了 100 個基點的衝擊,這表明敏感度安排在 2.1% 到 6.6% 之間。
Our outlook for net interest income for the first quarter of 2026 is slightly to moderately increasing, relative to the first quarter of 2025. The sensitivity associated with this guidance includes risks and opportunities, including realized loan growth, competition for deposits and depositor behavior, the path of interest rates across the yield curve, and the unknown future impacts of the imposition of tariffs and resulting market volatility.
相較於 2025 年第一季度,我們對 2026 年第一季淨利息收入的預期是小幅至中度成長。與本指南相關的敏感度包括風險和機遇,包括已實現的貸款成長、存款競爭和儲戶行為、殖利率曲線上的利率走勢,以及徵收關稅和由此產生的市場波動對未來的未知影響。
We begin our discussion of credit quality on slide 14. We Realized losses in the portfolio continue to be very manageable at $16 million this quarter, or 11 basis points annualized. We continue to benefit from significant borrower equity, strong sponsor support, and continued operating cash flows.
我們從第 14 張投影片開始討論信用品質。我們實現的投資組合損失本季仍然非常可控,為 1,600 萬美元,或年化損失 11 個基點。我們持續受益於大量借款人權益、強大的贊助商支持以及持續的經營現金流。
Non-performing assets and classified loan balances increased quarter over quarter by $9 million and $21 million, respectively. The allowance for credit losses was relatively stable versus prior quarters at 1.24%, and the loan loss allowance coverage with respect to non-accrual loans was 229%. We are well reserved for our portfolio and our ACL reflects our expectation of tariffs and their effects as of quarter end.
不良資產和分類貸款餘額分別比上一季增加了 900 萬美元和 2,100 萬美元。信貸損失準備金與前幾季相比相對穩定,為 1.24%,非應計貸款的貸款損失準備金覆蓋率為 229%。我們對我們的投資組合進行了充分的保留,我們的 ACL 反映了我們對關稅及其在季度末的影響的預期。
Slide 15 provides an overview of the $13.6 billion CRE portfolio, which represents 23% of total loan balances. Notably, this portfolio continues to be at low levels of non-accruals and delinquencies. The portfolio is granular and well diversified by property type and location, with this growth carefully managed for over a decade through disciplined concentration limits.
投影片 15 概述了 136 億美元的 CRE 投資組合,佔總貸款餘額的 23%。值得注意的是,該投資組合的不計提和拖欠率仍處於較低水準。該投資組合按資產類型和位置細分且多樣化,十多年來透過嚴格的集中限制精心管理其成長。
Slide 16 provides a detail view of the problem loans in our CRE portfolio. The chart on the right-hand side provides a breakout of which sub-portfolios drove changes and criticized and classified assets during the quarter. Of the $21 million increase in total classified loans, $26 million was driven by commercial real estate, primarily industrial and office credits, offset by improvement in multi-family classified balances as a result of full repayments on several credits.
投影片 16 詳細展示了我們的 CRE 投資組合中的問題貸款。右側的圖表提供了本季度哪些子投資組合推動了變化以及哪些資產受到了批評和分類。在分類貸款總額增加的 2,100 萬美元中,有 2,600 萬美元是由商業房地產(主要是工業和辦公信貸)推動的,但由於多筆信貸全部償還,多戶型分類貸款餘額有所改善,從而抵消了這一增長。
The chart on the bottom left-hand side of the slide reflects the LTV distribution of classified CRE loans, with more than two-thirds of those classified loans having LTVs less than 60% when examined by either recent appraisal or index adjusted values. Overall, we continue to expect the CRE portfolio to perform well, with limited losses based on the current economic outlook, the type of problems being experienced by borrowers, relatively low loan-to-value ratios, and continued sponsor support.
投影片左下方的圖表反映了分類 CRE 貸款的 LTV 分佈,其中超過三分之二的分類貸款在通過最近的評估或指數調整值檢查時 LTV 低於 60%。總體而言,我們繼續預期 CRE 投資組合將表現良好,基於當前的經濟前景、借款人遇到的問題類型、相對較低的貸款價值比以及持續的贊助商支持,損失將有限。
Our loss-absorbing capital is shown on slide 17. Common equity Tier 1 ratio this quarter was 10.8%. This, when combined with the allowance for credit losses, compares well to our risk profile as reflected in top-quartile performance and loan losses. We expect our common equity from both the regulatory and GAAP perspective to increase organically through earnings and that AOCI improvement will continue through unrealized loss accretion in the securities portfolio at individual securities pay down to mature, as shown on slide 22 of the appendix.
我們的損失吸收資本如第 17 頁投影片所示。本季普通股一級資本適足率為10.8%。這與信貸損失準備金相結合,與我們的風險狀況(反映在上四分位業績和貸款損失中)相比效果良好。我們預計,從監管和 GAAP 的角度來看,我們的普通股將透過收益有機增長,並且 AOCI 的改善將透過證券投資組合中單一證券支付至到期時的未實現損失累積而繼續進行,如附錄第 22 頁幻燈片所示。
Slide 18 summarizes our financial outlook for the first quarter of 2026 as compared to the first quarter of 2025. As Harris mentioned in his opening remarks, while there is always a degree of imprecision in our outlook, there is more than the usual level of uncertainty as we, along with all of you, away clarity around trade balance sheet and tariff outcomes with attendance impacts on the economy. Our outlook includes somewhat wider ranges as a result and represent our best estimate of financial performance based on current information. We continue to expect positive operating leverage and improved efficiency as revenue growth outpaces expense pressures.
投影片 18 總結了我們對 2026 年第一季與 2025 年第一季相比的財務展望。正如哈里斯在開場白中提到的那樣,雖然我們的展望總是存在一定程度的不準確性,但隨著我們與大家一起對貿易平衡表和關稅結果及其對經濟的影響保持清晰認識,不確定性的程度也超過了通常水平。因此,我們的展望涵蓋了更廣泛的範圍,並代表了我們根據當前資訊對財務表現的最佳估計。隨著收入成長超過支出壓力,我們繼續預期積極的經營槓桿和提高的效率。
Shannon Drage - Senior Vice President, Director of Financial Planning and Analysis and Acting Director of Investor Relations
Shannon Drage - Senior Vice President, Director of Financial Planning and Analysis and Acting Director of Investor Relations
This concludes our prepared remarks. As we move to the question-and-answer section of the call, we request that you limit your questions to one primary and one follow-up question to enable other participants to ask questions. Julian, will you please open the line for questions?
我們的準備好的演講到此結束。當我們進入電話會議的問答環節時,我們要求您將問題限制為一個主要問題和一個後續問題,以便其他參與者可以提問。朱利安,請您開通熱線來回答問題好嗎?
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Manan Gosalia, Morgan Stanley.
(操作員指令)Manan Gosalia,摩根士丹利。
Manan Gosalia - Analyst
Manan Gosalia - Analyst
Hi, good afternoon. Harris, I totally hear you on the opening limerick. It is fairly difficult to prognosticate here. But I was hoping you could give us some more color on what you're hearing on the ground from clients. What are you seeing from middle market and small business customers over the past few weeks in terms of sentiments?
嗨,下午好。哈里斯,我完全聽懂了你的開場打油詩。在這裡做出預測相當困難。但我希望您能向我們詳細介紹一下您從客戶那裡聽到的實際情況。就過去幾週而言,您從中型市場和小型企業客戶的情緒方面看到了什麼?
Harris Simmons - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Harris Simmons - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, thanks. I think it's still -- I think we've got a lot of businesses in this country that are kind of trying to grapple with really what this is going to mean whether it's a brand kind of negotiation, I think, that the administration is trying to conduct. And a question as to how far they'll actually allow the economy to get into the ditch before they start to perhaps pull back.
是的,謝謝。我認為,這仍然是——我認為我們國家有很多企業正在努力理解這到底意味著什麼,我認為這是否是政府試圖進行的一種品牌談判。問題是,在他們開始撤退之前,他們實際上會讓經濟陷入多大的困境。
I was talking to one owner of a business recently. I noted that most -- all of their manufacturing is done in China and Vietnam, said the only silver lining is all of my competitors are in the same boat. And so I think it's really hard to gauge how long, how deep the impact could be. But if this goes on for a prolonged period, I personally think it's going to be -- has the potential to be reasonably impactful and really tough for a lot of businesses, small business, large businesses.
我最近和一位企業主進行了交談。我注意到,他們的大部分製造業務都在中國和越南完成,唯一的好消息是,我所有的競爭對手都面臨同樣的處境。因此我認為很難判斷其影響會持續多久、有多深。但如果這種情況持續很長一段時間,我個人認為,這可能會對許多企業,無論是小企業還是大企業,造成相當大的影響,甚至帶來嚴峻的考驗。
I don't think it's going to distinguish between the size of the business. It's really all about where their inputs are coming from. And we've moved so much of our manufacturing base to other places, in particular Asia in the last 20 or 30 years that the idea that you can bring that back quickly is kind of far fetched in the mind.
我認為這不會區分業務規模。這實際上完全取決於他們的輸入來自哪裡。在過去的二三十年裡,我們已經將大量的製造基地轉移到了其他地方,特別是亞洲,因此,想要快速將這些基地遷回來的想法似乎有些遙不可及。
So I think it's still early to know. I think the equity markets are certainly reflecting a lot of concern about it. And that would extend to smaller businesses as well. I think it's going to have an impact on their willingness to build inventories to not knowing kind of what the price point is that consumers are going to be willing to buy a product that -- where the costs are increasing pretty significantly and where you could see increased unemployment is a byproduct of all of this.
所以我認為現在下結論還太早。我認為股票市場確實反映出對此的極大擔憂。這也將擴展到小型企業。我認為這會影響他們建立庫存的意願,因為他們不知道消費者願意購買的產品的價格點是多少——成本正在大幅上漲,而你可以看到失業率上升是所有這一切的副產品。
So anyway, I think we're signaling in every way possible, but I just don't feel that anybody can credibly say that they understand what the impact is going to be. We haven't really been here before. Some people like this to the Smoot-Hawley Tariffs in 1930. My belief is it's really poor analogy because the world was much less interconnected in 1930 as it is today. And so I don't think we have any history that gives us much of a guide personally. So that's my own take on it.
所以無論如何,我認為我們正在以一切可能的方式發出信號,但我只是覺得沒有人能夠可信地說他們了解其將會產生什麼影響。我們以前確實沒有來過這裡。有些人將此與 1930 年的斯姆特霍利關稅法案相提並論。我認為這是一個非常糟糕的類比,因為 1930 年的世界與今天的聯繫遠不及現在緊密。因此,我認為我們沒有任何歷史可以為我們提供個人指導。這就是我自己的看法。
Manan Gosalia - Analyst
Manan Gosalia - Analyst
I appreciate that. Maybe as a follow-up to that, in terms of your net interest income guide is slightly to moderately increasing. How much of that risk is baked in? And can you frame the risk around that NII guide? And how much is already locked in and how much do you need loan growth to pick up in order to achieve that?
我很感激。也許作為後續行動,就您的淨利息收入指南而言,它將略微或適度增加。其中有多少風險是可以承受的?您能根據 NII 指南來描述風險嗎?那麼已經鎖定了多少?需要貸款成長多少才能實現這一目標?
Harris Simmons - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Harris Simmons - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Yeah. I mean that's where we provide a slide there, and Ryan spoke to this late and an emergent kind of rate sensitivity. So we think a reasonable amount of it is baked in and reflected in the yield curve. And so our outlook is largely predicated on that.
是的。我的意思是,這就是我們提供的幻燈片,Ryan 談到了這種新近出現的利率敏感度。因此,我們認為其中相當一部分已被納入並反映在殖利率曲線中。因此,我們的展望很大程度上是基於此的。
And on loan growth, there may be likely to be kind of tepid this year. I think if you'd asked us three months ago, we just said we thought it was going to be a pretty good year in terms of loan growth. And we're all talking about animal spirits, everything else. A lot of those animals are going in the cases kind of hibernating, waiting to see what happens with trade policy, I think.
就貸款成長而言,今年可能會有些不溫不火。我想,如果你三個月前問我們,我們只會說,我們認為從貸款成長的角度來看,今年會是相當不錯的一年。我們都在談論動物精神以及其他一切。我認為,很多動物都處於冬眠狀態,等待貿易政策的推出。
I just think it's a tough time for business to be making long-term decisions, investment decisions about the businesses in the absence of understanding kind of where all this policy is going to take us.
我只是認為,如果不了解這些政策將為我們帶來什麼後果,企業就很難做出長期決策和投資決策。
Operator
Operator
John Pancari, Evercore ISI.
約翰·潘卡里(John Pancari),Evercore ISI。
John Pancari - Analyst
John Pancari - Analyst
Good afternoon. I wanted to see if you can give us a little bit more color on loan growth, what you're seeing in terms of demand. Are you seeing any weakening in the pipeline, any erosion in the pipeline just given the uncertainty that you discussed? Are you seeing any areas of strength at all? And I know you kind of just alluded to it, but what do you think brings back some of the appetite to draw down here?
午安.我想看看您是否可以提供更多有關貸款成長以及您所看到的需求方面的情況。考慮到您所討論的不確定性,您是否看到管道有任何減弱或侵蝕的情況?您是否看到了任何優勢領域?我知道您剛才提到了這一點,但您認為什麼能重新激發人們的胃口呢?
Harris Simmons - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Harris Simmons - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
I'm going to ask our Chief Credit Officer, Derek Steward, to also maybe -- yeah, why don't you offer a couple of thoughts. And I'll --
我要請我們的首席信貸官德里克·斯圖爾特 (Derek Steward) 也提出一些想法。我會--
Derek Steward - Executive Vice President, Chief Credit Officer
Derek Steward - Executive Vice President, Chief Credit Officer
Okay. Well, as Harris indicated, I think the borrowers just basically with the uncertainty that's occurring on the C&I side, certainly it's been slower as they're looking for just which way things are going to go for the year. I think there's a lot of people that are willing to invest and want to grow.
好的。嗯,正如哈里斯指出的那樣,我認為借款人基本上只是因為商業和工業方面出現的不確定性,他們肯定會放慢速度,因為他們正在尋找今年事情將如何發展。我認為有很多人願意投資並希望實現發展。
On the CRE side, we're actually seeing increased activity. That's an area that actually is coming back. Interest rates certainly will play a bearing there over the year. But that's what we're seeing so far.
在 CRE 方面,我們實際上看到活動增加。這是一個實際上正在復甦的領域。利率肯定會在未來一年產生影響。但這就是我們目前所看到的情況。
John Pancari - Analyst
John Pancari - Analyst
Okay. All right, thank you. And then separately, actually, on credit, it's good to see stability in the classified assets after the increase for a few quarters in a row there. But we did see the 30 to 89 day pass-throughs increase pretty sharply.
好的。好的,謝謝。然後,實際上,就信貸而言,在連續幾季成長之後,很高興看到分類資產保持穩定。但我們確實看到 30 至 89 天的流通量急劇增加。
Can you give us just a little bit of an update what drove that? And what are you seeing on the credit front? Any signs of incremental weakening in C&I credit to take note in? And maybe discuss your confidence in the adequacy of the reserve here? Thanks.
您能否向我們簡單介紹一下導致這現象的原因?您在信貸方面看到了什麼?有任何跡象顯示工商業信用逐漸減弱,值得注意嗎?也許可以討論一下您對這裡的儲備充足性的信心?謝謝。
Derek Steward - Executive Vice President, Chief Credit Officer
Derek Steward - Executive Vice President, Chief Credit Officer
Well, let me start with the reserve. We're very -- this is Derek, by the way. We're very comfortable with the reserve and where we have established that. And correct, we're happy to see the stabilization in the CRE classifieds and hope that assuming the economy holds that, that will continue to improve throughout the year.
好吧,讓我先從儲備開始。我們非常——順便說一下,這是德瑞克。我們對保護區以及建立保護區的地方非常滿意。沒錯,我們很高興看到 CRE 分類廣告的穩定,並希望在經濟保持這種狀態的前提下,全年繼續改善。
As far as C&I, it's holding up. It's stable. We've seen a little migration here and there more into criticized than classified. It's something certainly that we're watching for over the coming months. But nothing has jumped out there regarding an industry or trends that we've identified delinquency within C&I book.
就 C&I 而言,它正在堅持下去。很穩定。我們看到,有些地方出現了一些遷移,更多的是受到批評而不是被分類。這無疑是我們未來幾個月關注的事情。但是,我們在 C&I 書中沒有發現任何與行業或趨勢相關的違法行為。
Harris Simmons - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Harris Simmons - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
I might just add, on the 30 to 89 days pass-through, I mean, it's increased to $57 million or $105 million. It's bounced around as $114 million back in June. So you can have kind of a single deal that might create that kind of change.
我還要補充一點,在 30 至 89 天的直通期內,它已增加到 5700 萬美元或 1.05 億美元。6 月該數字已回升至 1.14 億美元左右。因此,您可以透過某種單一交易來創造這種變化。
I think the most -- I'll just tell you how I think about. We've had a run-up in classifieds. That's fundamentally due -- in a large part due to projects, particularly commercial real estate, which is roughly two-thirds of the total classified number which haven't performed according to their original projections but which have a lot of underlying strength in terms of the equity, the sponsorship, et cetera.
我認為最多——我只會告訴你我的想法。我們的分類廣告業務量已大幅增加。這在很大程度上是由於項目,特別是商業房地產項目,這些項目約佔分類項目總數的三分之二,其表現未達到最初的預測,但在股權、贊助等方面具有很大的潛在實力。
And if you look at the non-accrual number for commercial real estate, it's $57.5 million, which is about 3% of the classified number of close to $1.7 billion. And the non-accrual number is -- I mean, that is a very small handful of deals where we actually think we've probably got some loss that could be experienced. By definition, if we stop accruing interest, if we think we're not going to get our net principal back.
如果你看一下商業房地產的非應計數字,它是 5,750 萬美元,約佔接近 17 億美元的分類數字的 3%。而非應計數字是——我的意思是,我們實際上認為可能會遭受一些損失的交易非常少。根據定義,如果我們停止累積利息,如果我們認為我們不會收回我們的淨本金。
So I would -- when I think about how well I sleep, I focus a lot more on the non-accrual number than I do from a classified number. I think it's become much less meaningful as some of the guidance policy, the regulatory policy has changed around that metric. But that's why you see discontinued really strong performance. No charge-offs this quarter. Like I said, single basis point on average over the last five years.
所以當我考慮我的睡眠品質時,我會更專注於非累積數字,而不是分類數字。我認為它變得不再那麼有意義了,因為一些指導政策、監管政策已經圍繞著這個指標發生了變化。但這就是為什麼你會看到停產後業績表現如此強勁。本季沒有沖銷。就像我說的,過去五年平均只有一個基點。
And so we think that that portfolio is very strong. I think, Derek, you'd probably agree that if we have concerns, it's probably more around C&I and particularly given the impacts of trade policy.
因此我們認為該投資組合非常強大。德里克,我想你可能會同意,如果我們有擔憂,那可能更多的是圍繞 C&I,特別是考慮到貿易政策的影響。
Derek Steward - Executive Vice President, Chief Credit Officer
Derek Steward - Executive Vice President, Chief Credit Officer
Exactly, yeah. The C&I portfolio is what I would be concerned with versus the CRE portfolio. CRE portfolio really, you see also in the change in the classifieds, the multifamily is actually performing and starting to reduce. I would expect that to continue to reduce with the lease-up that's occurring. So a little increase in industrial and office just as leasing in the industrial book is taking a little longer, pretty much the same story as multifamily over the last several quarters. I would expect over time that those will get leased up and start reducing as well.
確實如此。與 CRE 投資組合相比,我更關注的是 C&I 投資組合。CRE 投資組合確實如此,您還可以從分類廣告的變化中看到,多戶型住宅實際上表現良好並開始減少。我預計,隨著租賃的增加,這一數字將繼續下降。因此,工業和辦公大樓租賃的小幅增長需要更長的時間,就像過去幾季的多戶住宅租賃情況一樣。我預計隨著時間的推移,這些房屋的租賃量將會上升,並且租賃量也會開始減少。
Operator
Operator
Bernard Von-Gizycki, Deutsche Bank.
伯納德‧馮‧吉茲茨基,德意志銀行。
Bernard Von-Gizycki - Analyst
Bernard Von-Gizycki - Analyst
Yeah. Hi, good afternoon. Just wanted to follow up. If the revenue environment comes in weaker than expected, are there any expenses that can be pulled back or investment slowed kind of rightsize the expense base to maintain that positive OpEx outlook?
是的。嗨,下午好。只是想跟進一下。如果收入環境弱於預期,是否有任何費用可以減少或投資放緩,以適當調整費用基礎來維持積極的營運支出前景?
Harris Simmons - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Harris Simmons - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Well, absolutely, we'll be working at that. I mean we've been pulling a lot of leverage. Our headcount is down about -- it's down roughly 3% or something like that from last year. And so that's something we're always working at. So the answer is yes, it will be a real focus if revenues drift down.
嗯,當然,我們會努力的。我的意思是我們已經發揮了很多影響力。我們的員工人數比去年減少了大約 3% 左右。這是我們一直努力的方向。所以答案是肯定的,如果收入下降,這將成為真正的焦點。
But at the same time, I think we're pretty determined to run this place for the long run. We want to be careful that we're not cutting in places that actually create further problems in terms of growth as we recover from this uncertainty, et cetera. We've noted, for example, we said in prior quarters that we expect to ramp up some marketing spend.
但同時,我認為我們決心長期經營這個地方。我們要小心,不要在我們從這種不確定性中復甦的過程中,在那些實際上會為成長帶來進一步問題的地方削減開支。例如,我們注意到,我們在前幾個季度曾表示,我們預計將增加一些行銷支出。
I think that becomes -- actually, times like these are some of the best times to actually bring new business on. I mean when there's uncertainty, we're going to have a real focus on keeping our people close to customers through all of this. And I think that's going to help protect the downside in terms of growth, but also, it's just an opportunity as others tighten.
我認為——實際上,現在是開展新業務的最佳時機。我的意思是,當存在不確定性時,我們將真正專注於讓我們的員工在整個過程中與客戶保持密切聯繫。我認為這將有助於防止經濟成長的下行風險,但同時也是其他政策收緊下的一個機會。
I think we've had the benefit of really good credit quality. And my hope and expectation is that will place us in a really good place to be able to bring business on that others might be trying to back out of. We're not going to do it foolishly. We're not going to take -- only take on problems, but we are going to stay focused on continuing to build the business through all of this.
我認為我們已經受益於非常好的信用品質。我的希望和期望是,這將使我們處於一個真正有利的位置,能夠開展其他人可能試圖退出的業務。我們不會做傻事。我們不會只解決難題,而是專注於透過所有這些來繼續發展業務。
Scott Mclean - President, Chief Operating Officer, Director
Scott Mclean - President, Chief Operating Officer, Director
I would just add to that. This is Scott. I'm playing that -- as we've said for years, rarely has there been one or two key expense initiatives. There's just this portfolio of opportunities that exist in a company our size and particularly a company that is still pretty much evolved from our legacy highly customized approach to processes in each of our seven affiliates. We've come a long way there.
我只想補充一點。這是斯科特。我正在這樣做——正如我們多年來所說的那樣,很少有一兩個關鍵的支出計劃。在我們這樣規模的公司中,存在著這樣一系列的機會,特別是我們七家附屬公司中的每一家都仍然在從傳統的高度客製化流程方法發展而來。我們已經走了很長的路了。
But there's still a good bit of ways to go in every part of the bank. And so, again, without calling at a process or a program, at any point in time, we've got a couple of dozen to 30 active expense opportunities that we're pursuing, none of which by themselves cause loan to just go out. But collectively, it allows us to dampen the expense growth.
但銀行的各部門還有很長的路要走。因此,再說一次,在任何時候,無需調用流程或程序,我們就會擁有幾十到三十個正在追求的活躍支出機會,而這些機會本身都不會導致貸款的發放。但總的來說,它使我們能夠抑制費用成長。
Bernard Von-Gizycki - Analyst
Bernard Von-Gizycki - Analyst
I appreciate that. Maybe just a follow-up on the customer-related fee income. Obviously, the cap market seems to be the biggest swing on the outlook given the recent uncertainty versus last quarter. It seems to be maybe a kind of an outsized contributor.
我很感激。可能只是與客戶相關的費用收入的跟進。顯然,考慮到近期與上一季相比的不確定性,資本市場似乎是前景中最大的波動。它似乎可能是一個超大的貢獻者。
Just maybe on the other parts in customer fee income, can you just walk us through any expectations there? Anything to be mindful of, whether it's a little bit lower or better?
也許關於客戶費用收入的其他部分,您能否向我們介紹一下這方面的預期?有什麼需要注意的嗎,是低一點還是好一點?
Scott Mclean - President, Chief Operating Officer, Director
Scott Mclean - President, Chief Operating Officer, Director
Yeah, certainly. This is Scott. So our customer fees were about $160 million in the first quarter. And yes, that was down from $171 million. But if you look at the four or five quarters leading up to that, we had been sort of in the $150 million -- $155 million range.
是的,當然。這是斯科特。因此,第一季我們的客戶費用約為 1.6 億美元。是的,這個數字比 1.71 億美元有所下降。但如果你看看之前的四、五個季度,我們的收入大約在 1.5 億美元到 1.55 億美元的範圍內。
So $160 million compared to the last five quarters or so prior to that fourth quarter, $160 million is a good number. And I think that the capital markets run rate consistently is probably more in the range of what we did for the first quarter this year. And we certainly hope we have some nice positive spikes. So at $160 million, it's a good solid number.
因此,與第四季之前的五個季度相比,1.6 億美元是一個不錯的數字。我認為資本市場的運作率可能持續處於今年第一季的水平。我們當然希望能夠取得一些正面的進展。所以 1.6 億美元是一個不錯的數字。
The other major components capital markets is about $120 million -- it's $110 million, $120 million-ish of our total customer fees of $135 million -- sorry, $635 million. Treasury management is the largest contributor to -- that's the basic operating services we provide to companies. That is the largest contributor at about $190 million. So it's a workhorse for us.
資本市場的其他主要組成部分約為 1.2 億美元 - 也就是 1.1 億美元,占我們總客戶費用 1.35 億美元中的 1.2 億美元 - 抱歉,是 6.35 億美元。財務管理是最大的貢獻者——這是我們為公司提供的基本營運服務。這是最大的捐款者,捐款額約為 1.9 億美元。所以它對我們來說是一台主力機。
And we're actually seeing some stabilization in our retail and business service charges as well as card. Card is about a $100 million revenue business for us. And we think the first quarter didn't show a lot of growth in our mortgage-related fees, but the way we've transitioned that business to more of a held-for-sale business, it will be more fee-oriented and less loans that we keep on our balance sheet. And so we think we didn't fully see the growth in that we expect to see going forward.
事實上,我們看到零售和商業服務費用以及信用卡費用有所穩定。信用卡業務對我們來說大約是一筆 1 億美元的收入。我們認為,第一季我們的抵押貸款相關費用並沒有出現很大的增長,但隨著我們將該業務轉變為持有待售業務,它將更多地以費用為導向,並且我們資產負債表上保留的貸款將減少。因此,我們認為我們並沒有完全看到我們預期的未來成長。
And then our Wealth business, we've talked about a good bid. It's definitely a growth business for us. It's about a $60 million revenue business a year. And we think we're in a really nice inflection point there. So those are some of the relative sizes. But most of our fee income groups to see mid-single-digit growth would not be inconsistent with what we've done for the last 10 or 12 years, and with kind of a special opportunity with capital markets well and maybe on the mortgage fee side in the coming months.
然後是我們的財富業務,我們已經討論了一個好的出價。對我們來說這絕對是一個成長型業務。這是一項年收入約 6,000 萬美元的業務。我們認為我們正處於一個非常好的轉折點。這些是一些相對尺寸。但是,我們的大多數費用收入群體都看到了中等個位數的成長,這與我們過去 10 年或 12 年的做法並不矛盾,而且在未來幾個月,資本市場可能會出現一種特殊的機會,也許在抵押貸款費用方面也會出現這種機會。
R. Ryan Richards - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
R. Ryan Richards - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
And keeping an eye on the performance of the financial markets and what bearing that has on our Wealth business for this year is another area that we're watching.
關注金融市場的表現及其對我們今年的財富業務的影響是我們關注的另一個領域。
Operator
Operator
Peter Winter, D.A. Davidson.
彼得溫特、D.A.戴維森。
Peter Winter - Analyst
Peter Winter - Analyst
Good afternoon. You guys in February, announced a $40 million share repurchase for the year. But I was just wondering, given the pressure in the stock prices, is there any thought of upsizing that buyback? And aside focus on organic growth, kind of what is the binding constraint not to be more aggressive with buybacks? Is the CET1 inclusive of AOCI?
午安.你們在二月宣布了今年 4000 萬美元的股票回購計畫。但我只是想知道,考慮到股價的壓力,是否有考慮增加回購規模?除了關注有機成長之外,還有什麼約束條件限制我們不進行更積極的回購?CET1 是否包含 AOCI?
R. Ryan Richards - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
R. Ryan Richards - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yeah. Thank you, Peter. I think you said that right. We've now had a pattern here, at least coming into this year falling from last year of trying to sort of normalize for the share-based compensation payments that tend to go out in the first quarter of the year and try to neutralize that in terms of its impact.
是的。謝謝你,彼得。我認為你說得對。我們現在已經形成了一種模式,至少今年的情況比去年有所下降,我們試圖使通常在每年第一季支付的股權激勵費用正常化,並試圖消除其影響。
But in terms of how we think about capital more broadly, not knowing exactly what comes from here on the regulatory side, but I think understanding more acutely how the market sort of views banks, it tends to be more on an ex-AOCI perspective. And so when we adjust our CET1 ratio with that ex-AOCI, we still think there's room to build to kind of get back to where we want to be around pure median or better.
但就我們如何更廣泛地思考資本而言,我們不知道監管方面的具體情況,但我認為更敏銳地了解市場如何看待銀行,這往往更多是從 AOCI 以外的角度來看。因此,當我們根據前 AOCI 調整我們的 CET1 比率時,我們仍然認為還有發展空間,可以回到我們想要的純中位數或更好的水平。
Peter Winter - Analyst
Peter Winter - Analyst
Okay. Thanks, Ryan. And then if I just ask also just with regards to the rolling 12-month guidance, not to get nitpicky, but can you just remind us what the percentage ranges would be in terms of slightly increasing, moderately increasing, et cetera, just fully realizing there's a lot of uncertainty, but just what those nuances you are?
好的。謝謝,瑞安。然後,如果我也只是問一下關於滾動的 12 個月指導,不是吹毛求疵,但您能否提醒我們百分比範圍是多少,例如略微增加、適度增加等等,只是充分意識到有很多不確定性,但這些細微差別究竟是什麼?
Harris Simmons - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Harris Simmons - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
We would if we knew. Truly, we don't have actually internally a hard fast rule for the definitions for those terms. I think it reflect kind of qualitatively how we're thinking about things.
如果我們知道的話我們就會這麼做。確實,我們內部實際上並沒有對這些術語的定義制定嚴格的規定。我認為它從某種程度上反映了我們對事物的看法。
R. Ryan Richards - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
R. Ryan Richards - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
I think that's right. I think some of the expressions we might use for slightly would be like low single digits, moderately being mid-single digits. But the balance of that, Harris, you're right, it depends on the amount of uncertainty that's in the environment at the time [and why those balance came].
我認為那是對的。我認為我們可能用來表示「略微」的表達方式是低個位數,中等則是中等個位數。但哈里斯,你說得對,平衡取決於當時環境中的不確定性程度[以及為什麼會出現這些平衡]
Operator
Operator
Ben Gerlinger, Citi.
花旗銀行的本‧格林格 (Ben Gerlinger)。
Ben Gerlinger - Analyst
Ben Gerlinger - Analyst
Hey, guys. I appreciate your time. I apologize if this is a duplicate because I lost connection in there for a minute. But when you think about deposit pricing, overall, 4Q going into 1Q deposit pricing trends have been pretty strong or in your favor, I guess, you would say. Just curious if you can shed any more color on either March margin or any large pricing itself? Just trying to think about how we should think about 2Q starting off point?
嘿,大家好。感謝您抽出時間。如果這是重複的,我深感抱歉,因為我在那裡失去了連接一分鐘。但是當您考慮存款定價時,總體而言,我想您會說,第四季度進入第一季的存款定價趨勢相當強勁或對您有利。我只是好奇您是否可以透露更多關於三月利潤或任何大宗定價的資訊?只是想想我們應該如何看待第二季的起點?
R. Ryan Richards - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
R. Ryan Richards - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yeah. Listen, thank you for the observation. And I think so far through the cycle, we've seen the kind of response to deposit pricing, but I think we would have signaled and hoped for I shared in my prepared remarks, a spot rate for the end of March. And that's probably about as far as we've gone in terms of what we've offered up for a point in time kind of how we're doing out of our broader one-year forward guidance. But that spot rate was 1.7% if you didn't catch in my prepared remarks.
是的。聽著,謝謝你的觀察。我認為到目前為止,我們已經看到了對存款定價的反應,但我認為我們會發出信號並希望我在準備好的發言中分享三月底的現貨匯率。就我們目前對某一時間點的預期而言,這大概就是我們根據更廣泛的一年期前瞻性指引所採取的行動。但如果你沒注意到我準備好的發言,那個現貨匯率是 1.7%。
Ben Gerlinger - Analyst
Ben Gerlinger - Analyst
Got you. Okay. That's helpful. And then from looking at deposit pricing trends in general, do you think you could lower further from here without cuts? Let's say the Fed is entirely on hold. Or is it more so dependent on the kind of action of the Fed itself?
明白了。好的。這很有幫助。然後從整體來看存款定價趨勢,您認為在不降息的情況下還能進一步降低利率嗎?假設聯準會完全暫停升息。或者它是否更多地依賴美聯儲本身的行動?
R. Ryan Richards - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
R. Ryan Richards - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yeah. No, that's another excellent question. We do believe that there's a bit more room there because of the latency and the pricing down of turn deposits that hasn't played all the way through. So even with that additional rate cuts, we believe that there's still a little bit of room for maneuver.
是的。不,這又是一個很好的問題。我們確實相信,由於延遲和尚未完全發揮作用的周轉存款的定價下降,那裡還有更多的空間。因此,即使進一步降息,我們認為仍有一些迴旋餘地。
But there is a practical limit of course, as you know, that we want to maximize the experience for our clients outside of rate paid and make sure that we meet them wherever they need us to be and that we're competitive on the rate paid. And historically, we've done really well on that front.
但當然存在一個實際限制,正如您所知,我們希望在支付費率之外最大限度地提高客戶的體驗,並確保我們在他們需要的任何地方滿足他們的要求,並確保我們在支付費率上具有競爭力。從歷史上看,我們在這方面做得非常好。
Operator
Operator
Ken Usdin, Autonomous Research.
肯‧烏斯丁(Ken Usdin),自主研究。
Ken Usdin - Analyst
Ken Usdin - Analyst
Hey, thanks a lot guys. One follow-up on the liability side. You still have a bunch of FHLBs and it looks like -- I think you still have some brokered inside time and in the other borrowings. How much leeway and leverage do you still have also to reduce funding on the lower right side of the balance sheet, especially if loan growth doesn't pan out as hoped?
嘿,非常感謝大家。關於責任方面的後續事宜。您仍然擁有大量 FHLB,而且看起來——我認為您仍然有一些內部經紀時間和其它藉款。您還有多少餘地和槓桿來減少資產負債表右下角的資金,特別是如果貸款成長不如預期?
R. Ryan Richards - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
R. Ryan Richards - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yeah. Thanks, Ken. I mean we sort of think of that short-term borrowing and the brokered as all kind of one big unit, hopefully not too big. We'd like to have that shrinking over time. And as you know, it's just so beholden to what we see in the deposit reaction and the price function and how successful we are in growing that base.
是的。謝謝,肯。我的意思是,我們將短期借貸和經紀視為一個大單位,希望不要太大。我們希望隨著時間的推移,這一差距能夠逐漸縮小。如你所知,這完全取決於我們在存款反應和價格功能中看到的情況,以及我們在擴大這一基礎方面取得的成功。
So we haven't spent -- it's really, really hard to predict, so we haven't spent a lot of time getting guidance on that dimension. But we sort of roll it all up into our overall NII outcome. And while allowing for that $1.7 billion of migration from non-experient to time deposits but not knowing exactly what that looks like and how we can defray those short-term borrowings together with Berber CDs.
所以我們沒有花費——這真的很難預測,所以我們沒有花很多時間來獲得這方面的指導。但我們將其全部納入到我們的整體 NII 結果中。雖然允許將 17 億美元的非經驗存款轉移到定期存款,但不知道這究竟是什麼樣子,以及我們如何才能用柏柏爾存單償還這些短期借款。
And also, with the pattern that we have in the pay down of our investment securities portfolio, having about one-half of that or more that rolls out based on those gross cash flows that are not reinvested. So there's a lot of puts and takes in that that makes it really, really hard to kind of predict the future on that one element.
此外,根據我們在投資證券組合償還過程中所採用的模式,大約有一半或更多的償還金額是基於那些未被再投資的總現金流。因此,這其中涉及許多因素,因此很難預測該因素的未來。
But as you saw, we've had some success here recently in bringing down those broker CDs a little bit. And there's been some work done by our treasury team are trying to change the pattern. There's been a little bit of lumpiness in maturities that we've been trying to stage out and make it more ratable through the course of the quarter. So as we continue to work that down and with deposit growth, we expect to have better outcomes there.
但正如您所見,我們最近在降低經紀人 CD 方面取得了一些成功。我們的財務團隊已經做了一些工作,試圖改變這種模式。到期日存在一些不均勻現象,我們一直在努力解決這個問題,並在本季度使其更具可評級性。因此,隨著我們繼續努力並隨著存款的增長,我們預計會取得更好的結果。
Ken Usdin - Analyst
Ken Usdin - Analyst
Okay. And follow-up on -- you talked about the managed declines in CRE and mortgage and the loan balance outlook. But I've noticed that those two categories have actually continued to grow. So can you just kind of walk us through what's going to change and when in terms of like, is it a retention thing? Or is it going to slow originations and those two (technical difficulty)
好的。並且後續——您談到了商業房地產和抵押貸款的管理性下降以及貸款餘額前景。但我注意到,這兩個類別實際上一直在成長。那麼,您能否向我們簡單介紹一下將會發生哪些變化,以及何時會發生變化,這是否與保留有關?或者說這會減緩起源和那兩個(技術難度)
R. Ryan Richards - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
R. Ryan Richards - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yeah, it kind of cut off. Let me just start on the 1-4 family, one of the reasons that's continued to grow its construction loans funding up into term loans under a program, we call it the one-time close program that we've had with customers. That's kind of approaching a point where we would expect that that starts to not play the kind of role it's played in the past. I think CRE -- maybe speak to the CRE piece.
是的,它有點切斷了。讓我先從 1-4 系列開始說起,這是其繼續將其建築貸款資金增加為定期貸款的原因之一,我們稱之為與客戶實施的一次性結算計劃。這有點接近我們預期的那種程度,它不再像過去那樣發揮作用。我認為 CRE——也許可以談談 CRE 部分。
Derek Steward - Executive Vice President, Chief Credit Officer
Derek Steward - Executive Vice President, Chief Credit Officer
Exactly. On the CRE, I mean, as we continue to work with our customers on some of the classifieds depending on where the interest rates go, one avenue is refinance. So we do expect some to refinance out some to sell properties as well.
確切地。關於 CRE,我的意思是,當我們繼續與客戶合作進行一些分類廣告時,根據利率的走向,其中一個途徑就是再融資。因此,我們確實預期有些人會再融資,有些人也會出售房產。
A lot of the CRE actually started as construction loans. And that's why you see it growing. These are construction loans funding up that would reduce new originations. I wouldn't expect to backfill all of that. And so you'll just see -- depending on where rates go, you may see some decline in the real estate -- commercial real estate.
很多商業房地產其實是從建築貸款開始的。這就是你看到它不斷增長的原因。這些是建築貸款融資,將減少新貸款的發放。我不指望能填補所有這些空缺。所以你會看到——根據利率的走勢,你可能會看到房地產——商業房地產——出現一些下滑。
R. Ryan Richards - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
R. Ryan Richards - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
And for what it's worth of the loan growth that Harris noted in his remarks were attributable to the First Bank acquisition, the majority of those loans that we acquired were 1-4 family resi. So that was happening in the most recent period that was probably driving some of that.
哈里斯在演講中指出,貸款成長歸功於對第一銀行的收購,而我們所收購的貸款大部分是 1-4 家庭住宅貸款。所以最近發生的事情可能推動了其中的一些事情。
Operator
Operator
Anthony Elian, JPMorgan.
摩根大通的安東尼·埃利安。
Anthony Elian - Analyst
Anthony Elian - Analyst
Hi, everyone. One on loan growth. Was any growth in the quarter you saw due to pull forward late in 1Q, particularly I noticed that period on balances were a few million -- a few hundred million dollars higher than the average number?
大家好。一個是關於貸款增長。由於第一季末的提前,您是否看到本季度有所增長,特別是我注意到當期餘額比平均數高出幾百萬到幾億美元?
R. Ryan Richards - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
R. Ryan Richards - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yeah, I think what you're seeing there is at the very end of March or towards the very end of March is when we executed officially closed on the Coachella four branch acquisitions, which brought up our spot for period end that would not -- there wasn't pretty much in the average for the quarter. I think that's what you're seeing in the numbers.
是的,我認為您在 3 月底或接近 3 月底看到的是我們正式完成了 Coachella 四家分店的收購,這使得我們的期末業績與本季度的平均業績相比沒有太大差異。我想這就是你在數字中看到的情況。
Anthony Elian - Analyst
Anthony Elian - Analyst
Okay. And then my follow-up on credit quality. Could you talk more about any loan portfolios or specific borrowers you're watching now that may have outsized exposure to tariffs, supply chain? And maybe if you can size them up for us. Thank you.
好的。然後我會跟進信用品質。您能否詳細談談您目前關注的可能受到關稅、供應鏈過度影響的貸款組合或特定借款人?也許您可以為我們測量它們的尺寸。謝謝。
Derek Steward - Executive Vice President, Chief Credit Officer
Derek Steward - Executive Vice President, Chief Credit Officer
We're flashing that ones that you would be concerned with tariffs, things manufacturing, machinery and equipment, trucking and transportation, consumer products and retail, sizing all that up. I'm not sure the exact amount of all of those components.
我們正在關注您所關心的關稅、製造業、機械設備、卡車運輸、消費品和零售,並對所有這些進行評估。我不確定所有這些成分的確切數量。
I think the one that we're watching closest is trucking and transportation. Trucking book would be less than $500 million. But it's an area that we're watching. And those are the segments that we're focused on primarily today.
我認為我們最關注的是卡車運輸和交通運輸。卡車運輸帳面價值將低於 5 億美元。但這是我們正在關注的領域。這些就是我們今天主要關注的部分。
Operator
Operator
Chris McGratty, KBW.
克里斯·麥格拉蒂,KBW。
Chris McGratty - Analyst
Chris McGratty - Analyst
Great, thanks. Harris, your comments about the animal spirits reversing. I'm interested in your thoughts, is the damage done for the year, meaning the sentiment has turned so negative that businesses are kind of penciled down for the remainder? Or can this -- if we're having this conversation in three months, could this be significantly a better tone in terms of optimism?
太好了,謝謝。哈里斯,你對動物精神逆轉的評論。我對您的想法很感興趣,今年的損失是否意味著市場情緒已經變得非常消極,以至於企業在剩餘時間內陷入困境?或者說——如果我們在三個月後進行這次對話,從樂觀的角度來看,這會是更好的基調?
Harris Simmons - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Harris Simmons - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
I think things can change. Listen, just my own opinion. Your question is kind of how -- to what extent you have an administration that spend itself into a corner is what they're trying to do with trade policy. Part of my thesis is that you're actually going to see a lot of pressure from the Congress, from Republicans in the Congress who have to be thinking about the midterm and what this all looks like, the impact of what's happening today on what the world looks like for them a year from now.
我認為事情會改變。聽著,這只是我自己的看法。您的問題是——您的政府在多大程度上將自己逼入絕境,而他們又試圖透過貿易政策來做什麼。我的部分論點是,你實際上會看到來自國會、來自國會共和黨人的巨大壓力,他們必須考慮中期選舉以及這一切將會是什麼樣子,以及今天發生的事情對一年後的世界將會造成什麼影響。
And so I was at lunch today with member called who was a Republican who was clearly very, very front center, and at least his mind, I think that's probably true of a whole bunch of them. And so how this plays out, I think it's going to be fascinating.
因此,今天我和一位共和黨議員共進午餐,他顯然處於一個非常中心的位置,至少在他看來,我想他們中的許多人都是這樣的。至於事情會如何發展,我認為這將會非常有趣。
I don't know how it's going to play out, but I don't think it's too late to -- the one thing that Donald Trump pretty good at is pivoting and is -- so I'd like to think it could change. And as they get more feedback in the markets from constituents of members of Congress, et cetera, I wouldn't think this is necessarily a foregone conclusion. That's why one of the reasons I think that it's so hard to predict what happens a year from now.
我不知道事情會如何發展,但我認為現在還不算太晚——唐納德·川普非常擅長轉變——所以我認為情況可能會改變。隨著他們從國會議員等選民那裡獲得更多市場回饋,我認為這不一定是必然的結論。這就是我認為很難預測一年後會發生什麼的原因之一。
Chris McGratty - Analyst
Chris McGratty - Analyst
Okay. Thank you. And then I guess my follow-up is just more of a clarification on the operating leverage -- full-year operating leverage. I guess was there a recommitment to full-year operating leverage that I heard in your prepared remarks regardless of the revenue environment?
好的。謝謝。然後我想我的後續工作只是對營運槓桿——全年經營槓桿進行更多的澄清。我想,我在您準備好的演講中聽到的是否是無論收入環境如何,都對全年營運槓桿做出重新承諾?
R. Ryan Richards - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
R. Ryan Richards - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yeah, thank you for that. Sorry if I wasn't clear. Yeah, in terms of how we talk about, of course, I think folks here are familiar with our approach of going one year's quarter forward, and on that basis, yeah, I did affirm right now that our expectation is positive operating leverage. We expect it to be somewhere in the 1% to 2% range based upon what we're seeing right now.
是的,謝謝你。抱歉,如果我沒有說清楚。是的,就我們如何談論而言,當然,我認為這裡的人們熟悉我們向前推進一年一個季度的方法,在此基礎上,是的,我現在確實確認我們的預期是正的經營槓桿。根據我們目前看到的情況,我們預計將在 1% 到 2% 的範圍內。
Operator
Operator
John Arfstrom, RBC Capital Markets.
加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的約翰‧阿夫斯特羅姆 (John Arfstrom)。
Jon Arfstrom - Analyst
Jon Arfstrom - Analyst
Thanks. Good afternoon, everyone. Just back on loans. We've talked about it a lot during the call, but do you expect to grow loans in the second quarter? Or is the evidence piling up to the point where you expect to pull back in balances?
謝謝。大家下午好。剛剛還清貸款。我們在電話會議中已經討論了很多,但您預計第二季貸款會增加嗎?或者證據是否已經累積到您期望恢復平衡的程度?
R. Ryan Richards - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
R. Ryan Richards - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yeah, I think we expect to see some loan growth in the second quarter. And again, we haven't seen -- it's not like we've seen kind of a quick flash pullback just at least the kind of deals I see coming through the pipeline looks like things are still -- there's still a lot of business being done.
是的,我認為我們預計第二季貸款會有所成長。再說一次,我們還沒有看到——這並不是說我們看到了某種快速的閃光回調,至少我看到的正在通過渠道達成的交易看起來仍然——仍然有很多業務正在進行。
Derek Steward - Executive Vice President, Chief Credit Officer
Derek Steward - Executive Vice President, Chief Credit Officer
Yeah. This is Derek here. I would expect that we'll continue to grow loans even through this --
是的。我是德里克。我預計,即使這樣,我們的貸款仍將繼續成長--
Jon Arfstrom - Analyst
Jon Arfstrom - Analyst
Yeah, okay. That's quite helpful.
嗯,好的。這很有幫助。
Derek Steward - Executive Vice President, Chief Credit Officer
Derek Steward - Executive Vice President, Chief Credit Officer
Even with the discussion that I had on CRE, potentially reducing depending on where rates go, I think some of that can be offset as we continue new originations.
即使我已經討論過 CRE,根據利率的走向,CRE 可能會有所降低,但我認為,隨著我們繼續開展新的業務,其中一些影響可以被抵消。
Scott Mclean - President, Chief Operating Officer, Director
Scott Mclean - President, Chief Operating Officer, Director
And I think we've -- if you just look back over the last four or five quarters, and we've been growing at about the same kind of year-over-year growth rate in the same kind of linked-quarter growth rate and it's not robust growth, but it's growth. So I think what we're saying is, yeah, we probably can continue that kind of moderate growth that's sort of going on. It's very different than the five or six quarters preceded all that, where we had some of the largest quarters of loan growth in our history.
我認為,如果回顧過去四、五個季度,我們的年成長率和環比成長率大致相同,雖然不是強勁的成長,但仍然是成長。所以我認為我們要說的是,是的,我們可能可以繼續這種正在發生的適度增長。這與之前的五、六個季度截然不同,在那五、六個季度中,我們經歷了歷史上貸款成長最快的幾個季度。
Jon Arfstrom - Analyst
Jon Arfstrom - Analyst
Okay. Yeah, that's helpful. We're just kind of myopically focused on the negative. And I just wanted to clarify that.
好的。是的,這很有幫助。我們只是目光短淺地專注於負面的一面。我只是想澄清這一點。
Harris, have you seen anything in terms of the regulatory outlook or maybe changes sort of happen already that would benefit Zions? I'm thinking about category 4, maybe that could be eased. Just curious where your head is at on in terms of the regulatory outlook and what may have happened already.
哈里斯,就監管前景而言,您是否看到任何變化,或者可能已經發生了有利於錫安的變化?我正在考慮第 4 類,也許可以放寬一些。我只是好奇您對監管前景的看法以及可能已經發生的事情。
Harris Simmons - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Harris Simmons - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Yeah. I mean I'd start by saying, as we said previously, the whole $100 billion threshold category 4 kind of thing really has not been keeping us awake at night. We built so much of the machinery for that back post-Dodd-Frank before the 2018 legislation that we've maintained it, still use it, et cetera. And I think we're in reasonably good shape whatever happens.
是的。我的意思是,首先要說的是,正如我們之前所說的那樣,整個 1000 億美元門檻的第四類事情確實並沒有讓我們徹夜難眠。在 2018 年立法之前,我們為後多德-弗蘭克法案建立了大量的機制,我們一直在維護它們,仍在使用它們等等。我認為無論發生什麼,我們的狀況都相當好。
But I do think that -- I mean, I'm quite encouraged by what I'm seeing in terms of this administration's selection so far to run these agencies. And if you read what Miki Bowman said, I'll set a lot of the tone for it. I mean, clearly, they're going to focus on kind of tapering. If you go talk to French Hill, the Chair of the House Financial Service Committee, he's very focused on making sure that we just -- we don't suffocate this industry.
但我確實認為——我的意思是,就本屆政府迄今為止對這些機構的管理人選而言,我感到非常鼓舞。如果你讀過米基鮑曼 (Miki Bowman) 所說的話,你就會知道我對此定下了很多基調。我的意思是,顯然,他們會把重點放在縮減上。如果你去和眾議院金融服務委員會主席弗倫奇·希爾交談,你會發現他非常注重確保我們不會扼殺這個行業。
And then Scott mentioned -- has indicated he's going to take -- play a stronger role in policy making for the financial sector, and he's clearly concerned that we don't suffocate the banking industry. I think he's concerned about how much has gone into private credit. He would say that doesn't think that's a problem per se, except that it probably is indicative of the fact that we've tightened screws on banking in a way that's maybe gone beyond the point of being productive.
然後斯科特提到——表示他將在金融領域的政策制定中發揮更大的作用,他顯然擔心我們不會扼殺銀行業。我認為他關心的是有多少資金流向了私人信貸。他會說,他不認為這本身是個問題,只是這可能表明我們對銀行業的控制力度可能已經超出了生產範圍。
And so I think it's going to be a much more sort of thoughtful -- let's make sure to focus on basics, less focus on things politically correct or not. I'd say, I mean, all the focus that was being shown climate change, we just don't see it in our portfolio. We've been through some kind of severe events in our history, hurricane Harvey and droughts and wildfires, and it doesn't show up in loan losses.
因此我認為這將是一種更深思熟慮的做法——讓我們確保專注於基本問題,而不是政治是否正確。我想說的是,我們所有的焦點都集中在氣候變遷上,但我們在我們的投資組合中卻沒有看到它。我們在歷史上經歷過一些嚴重事件,如颶風哈維、乾旱和野火,但這並沒有反映在貸款損失上。
And so let's not spend a lot of energy on stuff that just doesn't matter. And let's get better at the things that do. I think that's the kind of regulation we're going to see out of this administration. And I think that that's a welcome thing.
所以我們不要在不重要的事情上花太多精力。讓我們做得更好。我認為這就是我們將要看到的本屆政府所推出的監管規定。我認為這是一件值得高興的事。
I don't think anybody in this industry is looking for weak regulation. We're looking for sensible regulation. Let's focused on real risk. And that's where I think they'll be, and that's where we'd be comfortable having.
我認為這個行業中沒有人希望看到監管薄弱。我們正在尋求合理的監管。讓我們專注於真正的風險。我認為他們會在那裡,我們也願意在那裡。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. And with that, there are no further questions at this time. I would like to turn the floor back to Shannon Drage for closing remarks.
謝謝。至此,目前沒有其他問題了。我想請 Shannon Drage 做最後一次演講。
Shannon Drage - Senior Vice President, Director of Financial Planning and Analysis and Acting Director of Investor Relations
Shannon Drage - Senior Vice President, Director of Financial Planning and Analysis and Acting Director of Investor Relations
Thank you, Julian, and thank you all for joining us today. We appreciate your interest in Zions Bancorporation. If you have additional questions, please contact us at the e-mail or phone number listed on our website. We look forward to connecting with you throughout the coming months. This concludes our call.
謝謝你,朱利安,也謝謝大家今天加入我們。感謝您對 Zions Bancorporation 的關注。如果您還有其他問題,請透過我們網站上列出的電子郵件或電話號碼與我們聯絡。我們期待在接下來的幾個月與您保持聯繫。我們的通話到此結束。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. This does conclude today's teleconference. We thank you for your participation. You may disconnect your lines at this time.
謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。我們感謝您的參與。現在您可以斷開線路。