Zions Bancorporation NA (ZION) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Zions Bancorp Q1 Earnings Conference Call.

您好，歡迎參加 Zions Bancorp 第一季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce Shannon Drage, Director of Investor Relations. Thank you, Shannon. You may begin.

提醒一下，本次會議正在錄製中。現在我很高興向大家介紹投資者關係總監 Shannon Drage。謝謝你，香農。你可以開始了。

Thank you, Darryl, and good morning. We welcome you to this conference call to discuss our 2024 first quarter earnings. I would like to remind you that during this call, we will be making forward-looking statements, although actual results may differ materially. We encourage you to review the disclaimer in the press release or Slide 2 of the presentation dealing with forward-looking information and the presentation of non-GAAP measures, which applies equally to statements made during this call.

謝謝你，達裡爾，早安。我們歡迎您參加本次電話會議，討論我們 2024 年第一季的收益。我想提醒您，在這次電話會議中，我們將做出前瞻性陳述，儘管實際結果可能存在重大差異。我們鼓勵您查看新聞稿或簡報投影片 2 中涉及前瞻性資訊和非公認會計原則措施簡報的免責聲明，這同樣適用於本次電話會議期間所做的聲明。

A copy of the earnings release as well as the presentation are available on our website, zionsbancorporation.com. For our agenda today, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Harris Simmons, will provide opening remarks.

您可以在我們的網站 zionsbancorporation.com 上取得收益報告和簡報的副本。對於我們今天的議程，董事長兼首席執行官哈里斯·西蒙斯 (Harris Simmons) 將致開幕詞。

Following Harris' comments, Ryan Richards, our Chief Financial Officer, will review our financial results. Also with us today are Scott McLean, President and Chief Operating Officer; Chris Kyriakakis, Chief Risk Officer; and Derek Steward, Chief Credit Officer.

在哈里斯發表評論後，我們的財務長瑞安理查茲將審查我們的財務表現。今天與我們在一起的還有總裁兼營運長 Scott McLean； Chris Kyriakakis，首席風險長；和首席信貸官德里克·斯圖爾特（Derek Steward）。

After our prepared remarks, we will hold a question-and-answer session. This call is scheduled for one hour. I will now turn the time over to Harris Simmons.

在我們準備好的發言之後，我們將舉行問答環節。這次通話預計持續一小時。現在我將把時間交給哈里斯·西蒙斯。

Thanks very much, Shannon, and we welcome all of you to our call this morning. As Shannon mentioned, Ryan Richards is joining our call today as our new Chief Financial Officer. Ryan was formerly our Corporate Controller and has been promoted to Chief Financial Officer as our former CFO, Paul Burdiss, is now serving as the CEO of our largest affiliate bank, Zions Bank. These changes along with other leadership changes, I think, reflect the depth of the talent that we have in our organization and our intentional efforts to develop a well-rounded group of leaders with broad experience.

非常感謝，香農，我們歡迎大家今天早上參加我們的電話會議。正如 Shannon 所提到的，瑞安理查茲 (Ryan Richards) 今天作為我們的新任財務長加入我們的電話會議。 Ryan 曾擔任我們的公司財務總監，並已晉升為首席財務官，因為我們的前首席財務官 Paul Burdiss 現在擔任我們最大的附屬銀行 Zions Bank 的首席執行官。我認為，這些變化以及其他領導層變化反映了我們組織中人才的深度，以及我們為培養一支具有廣泛經驗的全面發展的領導團隊所做的努力。

While we in the industry continue to navigate complex and uncertain economic and regulatory conditions, we have not lost focus on bringing value to our customers and shareholders over the long term. We've just successfully completed the second of three migrations to our new core deposit system, which happened for Nevada State Bank and Amegy Bank of Texas customers 2 weeks ago. We anticipate completing migration of substantially all remaining accounts in late summer.

儘管我們這個行業繼續應對複雜且不確定的經濟和監管條件，但我們並沒有失去長期為客戶和股東帶來價值的重點。我們剛剛成功完成了向新核心存款系統的三個遷移中的第二項，兩週前為內華達州立銀行和德克薩斯州 Amegy 銀行的客戶進行了遷移。我們預計在夏末完成幾乎所有剩餘帳戶的遷移。

This core system is delivering the benefits we are anticipating, including 1 intuitive easy-to-use system for virtually all deposit and loan accounts, which improves the ability to view and manage client relationships, provides greater access to data, and consistency of data, resulting in fewer calls to the back office, optimized teller transaction processing, the shortening of new account opening, and customer maintenance times, and real-time processing, allowing for improved fraud detection and mistake resolution.

這個核心系統正在提供我們預期的好處，包括一個適用於幾乎所有存款和貸款帳戶的直觀易用的系統，它提高了查看和管理客戶關係的能力，提供了對數據的更大訪問權限和數據的一致性，從而減少對後台的呼叫，優化櫃員交易處理，縮短新帳戶開立和客戶維護時間以及即時處理，從而改善詐欺偵測和錯誤解決。

The completion of this major transformation is accompanied by other enhancements to digital capabilities for our customers, all of which we believe put us ahead of the pack in terms of our resiliency, our product offerings and ability to serve our customers. This advantage, combined with our local approach to relationship banking, the strength of our footprint and our ability to manage risk positions us well for continued advancements in digital banking.

這項重大轉型的完成伴隨著我們客戶數位化能力的其他增強，我們相信所有這些都使我們在彈性、產品供應和服務客戶的能力方面處於領先地位。這項優勢，再加上我們本地的關係銀行業務方法、我們的足跡優勢以及我們管理風險的能力，使我們能夠在數位銀行領域不斷取得進步。

We're also pleased that our efforts to serve and create value for our customers continue to be recognized, including through the 2023 Greenwich Associates market tracking program. Zions was awarded 20 overall National Excellence awards ranking third among all U.S. banks and securing our position as 1 of only 3 U.S. banks to average 16 or more wins since the inception of the brand awards in 2009.

我們也很高興我們為客戶服務和創造價值的努力繼續得到認可，包括透過 2023 年 Greenwich Associates 市場追蹤計劃。 Zions 榮獲 20 項國家卓越獎，在所有美國銀行中排名第三，並成為自 2009 年品牌獎設立以來僅有的 3 家平均獲得 16 項或更多獎項的美國銀行之一。

We continue to score well across a number of measured dimensions for both small business and middle market categories, where we lead the way for bank you can trust, values long-term relationships and ease of doing business. By the way, we tip our hat to our friends at Cullen/Frost and Pinnacle Financial who were the #1 and 2 this year and for their continued and consistent recognition by Greenwich Associates over the years, we're proud to be in such a good company and associated with other leading regional banks who demonstrate excellence in meeting the needs of small and middle market businesses. In the current environment, revenue growth continues to be our biggest challenge with adjusted revenue in the quarter down 11% compared to the year ago period.

我們在小型企業和中型市場類別的多個衡量維度上繼續取得良好的成績，在這些方面，我們引領銀行走向值得信賴、重視長期合作關係和輕鬆開展業務的方向。順便說一句，我們向今年排名第一和第二的 Cullen/Frost 和 Pinnacle Financial 的朋友們致敬，感謝他們多年來一直受到 Greenwich Associates 的持續認可，我們很自豪能夠躋身這樣的行列良好的公司，並與其他領先的區域銀行合作，在滿足中小型市場企業的需求方面表現出卓越的表現。在當前環境下，營收成長仍然是我們面臨的最大挑戰，本季調整後營收較去年同期下降 11%。

Over time, relative net interest margin will improve through customer deposit growth and pricing discipline in addition to the management of interest rate risk through our hedging strategy. We also expect that with the continued passage of time from the events of last spring, our relative cost of deposits will continue to improve.

隨著時間的推移，除了透過我們的對沖策略管理利率風險外，相對淨利差還將透過客戶存款成長和定價紀律得到改善。我們也預計，隨著去年春季事件的持續推移，我們的相對存款成本將繼續改善。

Loan demand seems to have turned a corner of sorts this quarter with pipelines recovering somewhat from low levels late last year and improving customer sentiment. Our true success will depend on our ability to grow our customer base, and we continue to place an emphasis on granular growth of small business customers.

本季貸款需求似乎已經出現轉折點，貸款管道從去年年底的低點有所回升，客戶情緒也有所改善。我們真正的成功將取決於我們擴大客戶群的能力，並且我們將繼續重視小型企業客戶的精細成長。

Recently, we've been particularly successful with a streamlined SBA program aimed at serving smaller businesses in our communities. It's a program that seems to fill a unique product need for our customers, and while it doesn't immediately contribute meaningfully to loan balance growth is the kind of business that builds real franchise value and it's bringing in a meaningful number of new to the bank customers, and our cross-selling efforts are also bearing fruit.

最近，我們在簡化的 SBA 計劃方面取得了特別成功，該計劃旨在為我們社區的小型企業提供服務。該計劃似乎滿足了我們客戶的獨特產品需求，雖然它不會立即對貸款餘額增長做出有意義的貢獻，但它是一種能夠建立真正的特許經營價值的業務，並為銀行帶來了大量新業務客戶，我們的交叉銷售努力也取得了成果。

We also remain confident in our ability to grow fee income to a larger percentage of total revenue. Capital markets fees represent a key opportunity, and these fees are growing as our product set expands and more of our bankers are marketing these capabilities to clients.

我們也對將費用收入佔總收入的比例提高的能力充滿信心。資本市場費用是一個關鍵機會，隨著我們產品集的擴大以及更多銀行家向客戶推銷這些功能，這些費用也不斷增加。

These combined efforts to improve revenue will be paired with well-managed expenses. Adjusted expenses in the current period were up a mere $2 million compared to the first quarter of 2023, and we continue to focus on ways that we can control costs while continuing to invest in the business. Net charge-offs continue to be benign at just 4 basis points annualized as a percentage of average loans for the quarter. This contrasts to an increase in classified loan balances of $141 million, driven largely by the C&I portfolio.

這些提高收入的綜合努力將與管理良好的支出結合。與 2023 年第一季相比，本期調整後費用僅增加了 200 萬美元，我們將繼續專注於在繼續投資業務的同時控製成本的方法。淨沖銷持續保持良性，佔本季平均貸款的年化百分比僅 4 個基點。與此形成鮮明對比的是，主要由 C&I 投資組合推動的分類貸款餘額增加了 1.41 億美元。

We believe realized losses over the next few quarters will continue to be quite manageable, and our current expectations are fully reflected in our allowance, which increased 1 basis point as a percentage of loans, and which Ryan will speak about in more detail later in the presentation.

我們相信，未來幾季的已實現損失將繼續處於可控範圍內，我們目前的預期已充分反映在我們的準備金中，準備金佔貸款的百分比增加了1 個基點，瑞安將在稍後的章節中更詳細地討論這一點。

With the continued improvement we expect in our net interest margin, coupled with better than peer credit performance, we anticipate a positive trajectory for relative performance and our ability to improve shareholder returns going forward.

隨著我們預期淨利差的持續改善，加上優於同業的信用表現，我們預期相對績效和未來提高股東回報的能力將呈現正面的軌跡。

Starting on Slide 3, we've included key financial performance highlights. We reported net earnings -- reported net earnings of $143 million for the quarter. Our period-end loan balance increased just under 1%, while average balances increased 1.3% for the quarter.

從幻燈片 3 開始，我們列出了主要的財務績效亮點。我們報告了淨利潤——該季度淨利潤為 1.43 億美元。我們的期末貸款餘額增加了不到 1%，而本季平均餘額增加了 1.3%。

Customer deposit balances declined approximately 1% in the quarter due primarily to a small number of seasonal outflows early in the year. Our loan-to-deposit ratio was 78%. Net charge-offs as a percent of loans were just 4 basis points as noted, down from 6 basis points reported in the prior quarter.

本季客戶存款餘額下降約 1%，主要是因為年初出現少量季節性資金外流。我們的貸存比率為78%。如前所述，淨沖銷佔貸款的百分比僅為 4 個基點，低於上一季報告的 6 個基點。

Our common equity Tier 1 ratio was 10.4% compared to 10.3% in the fourth quarter and 9.9% a year ago.

我們的普通股一級資本比率為 10.4%，而第四季為 10.3%，一年前為 9.9%。

Moving to Slide 4. Diluted earnings per share of $0.96 was up $0.18 from the prior quarter. Current quarter results reflect a $0.07 negative impact from the FDIC's updated estimate of expected losses from the closures of the Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, which compares to the 46% negative impact from the initial assessment reflected in the fourth quarter.

轉到投影片 4。當前季度業績反映了 FDIC 對矽谷銀行和 Signature 銀行關閉造成的預期損失的最新估計帶來了 0.07 美元的負面影響，而第四季度初步評估的負面影響為 46%。

Turning to Slide 5. Our first quarter adjusted preprovision net revenue was $242 million, down from $262 million in the fourth quarter. The linked quarter decline was attributable primarily to seasonally higher noninterest expense. Versus the year ago quarter, PPNR was down 29% as the increase in the cost of deposits exceeded the increase in earning asset yields.

轉向投影片 5。相關季度的下降主要歸因於季節性非利息支出的增加。與去年同期相比，PPNR 下降了 29%，因為存款成本的成長超過了生息資產收益率的成長。

With that high-level overview, I'm going to ask Ryan Richards, our Chief Financial Officer, to provide additional detail related to our financial performance. Ryan?

有了這個高層次的概述，我將請我們的財務長 Ryan Richards 提供與我們的財務表現相關的更多詳細資訊。瑞安？

Thank you, Harris, and good morning, everyone. I will begin with a discussion of the components of pre-provision net revenue. Nearly 80% of our revenue is from the balance sheet through net interest income. Slide 6 includes our overview of net interest income and the net interest margin. The chart shows the recent 5-quarter trend for both. Net interest income on the bars and net interest margin in the white boxes improved slightly from the prior quarter as the repricing of earning assets outpaced rising funding costs. Additional detail on changes in the net interest margin is included on Slide 7.

謝謝哈里斯，大家早安。我將首先討論撥備前淨收入的組成部分。我們近 80% 的收入來自資產負債表中的淨利息收入。投影片 6 包括我們對淨利息收入和淨利差的概述。這張圖表顯示了兩者最近 5 季的趨勢。由於獲利資產的重新定價超過了融資成本的上升，金條的淨利息收入和白箱的淨利差較上一季略有改善。有關淨利差變化的更多詳細資訊包含在幻燈片 7 中。

On the left-hand side of the page, we provide a linked quarter waterfall outlining the changes in key components of the net interest margin. The 22 basis adverse impact associated with borrowings, encompassing both the rate and volume was offset by the positive impact of loan repricing and the impact of lower average interest-bearing deposit volumes. Noninterest-bearing deposit volumes -- volume declines resulted in a slight reduction in the contribution of these funds to balance sheet profitability.

在頁面左側，我們提供了一個連結的季度瀑布，概述了淨利差關鍵組成部分的變化。與借款相關的 22 基差不利影響（包括利率和數量）被貸款重新定價的正面影響和平均計息存款量下降的影響所抵消。無息存款量－數量下降導致這些資金對資產負債表獲利能力的貢獻略有下降。

The right-hand side of this chart shows the net interest margin comparison to the prior year quarter. Higher rates were reflected in loan yields, which contributed an additional 77 basis points to the net interest margin. The value of noninterest-bearing deposits and lower borrowing levels contributed another 93 basis points to the margin. These positive contributions, which were more than offset by increased deposit costs, which adversely impacted net interest margin by 208 basis points.

這張圖表的右側顯示了與去年同期相比的淨利差。較高的利率反映在貸款收益率上，為淨利差額外貢獻了 77 個基點。無利息存款的價值和較低的借貸水準又為利潤率貢獻了 93 個基點。這些正面貢獻被存款成本增加所抵消，存款成本對淨利差產生了 208 個基點的不利影響。

Overall, the net interest margin declined by 39 basis points versus the prior year quarter.

整體而言，淨利差較去年同期下降了 39 個基點。

Moving to noninterest income and revenue on Slide 8. Customer-related noninterest income was $151 million compared to $150 million in the prior quarter, with higher capital market fees offset by smaller declines in other categories. Our outlook for customer-related noninterest income for the first quarter of 2025 is moderately increasing relative to the first quarter of 2024.

轉到幻燈片 8 上的非利息收入和收入。我們對 2025 年第一季客戶相關非利息收入的預期相對 2024 年第一季適度增長。

The chart on the right side of the page includes adjusted revenue, which is the revenue included in the adjusted pre-provision net revenue and is used in our efficiency ratio calculation. Adjusted revenue decreased 11% from the prior year and was stable versus the fourth quarter due to the factors noted previously.

頁面右側的圖表包括調整後的收入，即調整後的撥備前淨收入中包含的收入，用於我們的效率比率計算。由於前述因素，調整後收入較上年同期下降 11%，與第四季相比保持穩定。

Adjusted noninterest expense shown in the lighter blue bars on Slide 9, increased $22 million to $511 million, attributable largely to seasonal increases in compensation. Reported expenses at $526 million decreased $55 million. As a reminder, the fourth quarter included $90 million in FDIC special assessment costs, while another $13 million was recognized in the first quarter this year.

第 9 張淺藍色條中顯示的調整後非利息支出增加了 2,200 萬美元，達到 5.11 億美元，這主要歸因於薪酬的季節性增長。報告費用為 5.26 億美元，減少了 5,500 萬美元。提醒一下，第四季包括 9,000 萬美元的 FDIC 特別評估成本，而今年第一季又確認了 1,300 萬美元。

Our outlook for adjusted noninterest expense for the first quarter of 2025 is slightly increasing relative to the first quarter of 2024. Risks and opportunities associated with this outlook include our ability to manage technology, supply chain, and employment costs.

我們對 2025 年第一季調整後非利息支出的展望相對 2024 年第一季略有上升。

Slide 10 highlights trends in our average loans and deposits over the year. On the left side, you can see that average loans increased 1% in the current quarter. Loan demand and customer sentiment improved somewhat during the quarter, and our expectation is that loans will be stable to slightly increasing in the first quarter of 2025 relative to the first quarter of 2024.

幻燈片 10 重點介紹了我們一年來的平均貸款和存款的趨勢。在左側，您可以看到本季平均貸款增加了 1%。本季貸款需求和客戶情緒有所改善，我們預計 2025 年第一季貸款相對 2024 年第一季將穩定至小幅成長。

Now turning to deposits on the right side of this page. Average deposits for the first quarter decreased slightly as average noninterest-bearing and broker deposits declined. The cost of total deposits shown in white boxes stayed flat at 206 basis points. As measured against the fourth quarter of 2021, the repricing beta on total deposits, including brokered deposits and based on average deposit rates in the first quarter, remained 39%, and the repricing beta for interest-bearing deposits was 60%.

現在轉向本頁右側的存款。由於平均無息存款和經紀人存款下降，第一季平均存款略有下降。白框中顯示的總存款成本維持在 206 個基點不變。與2021年第四季相比，包括經紀存款在內的總存款以第一季平均存款利率為基礎的重定價貝塔值仍為39%，計息存款的重定價貝塔值為60%。

Slide 11 includes a more comprehensive view of funding sources and total funding cost trends. The left-hand side chart includes ending balance trends. Short-term borrowings have decreased $8 billion since the first quarter of 2023 as customer deposits have grown and earning assets have declined.

投影片 11 更全面地展示了資金來源和總資金成本趨勢。左側圖表包括期末餘額趨勢。自 2023 年第一季以來，由於客戶存款增加和獲利資產下降，短期借款減少了 80 億美元。

On the right side, average balances for our key funding categories are shown along with the total cost of funding. As seen on this chart, the rate of increase in total funding costs at 9 basis points in the current quarter has continued to decline compared to the prior 3 quarters.

右側顯示了我們主要資金類別的平均餘額以及資金總成本。從該圖可以看出，本季總融資成本成長率為 9 個基點，與前 3 個季度相比持續下降。

Moving to Slide 12. Our investment portfolio exists primarily to be a ready storehouse of funds to absorb customer-driven balance sheet changes. On this slide, we show our securities and money market investments over the last 5 quarters. The investment portfolio continues to behave as expected. Maturities, principal amortization and prepayment-related cash flows were $700 million in the first quarter.

轉向投影片 12。在這張投影片上，我們展示了過去 5 個季度的證券和貨幣市場投資。投資組合的表現持續符合預期。第一季的到期、本金攤銷和預付款相關現金流量為 7 億美元。

With this somewhat predictable portfolio of cash flow, we anticipate the money market and investment security balances combined will continue to decline over the near term, which will be a source of funds for the balance sheet.

有了這種某種程度上可預測的現金流量組合，我們預期貨幣市場和投資證券餘額在短期內將繼續下降，這將成為資產負債表的資金來源。

The duration of the investment portfolio, which is a measure of price sensitivity to changes in interest rates, is slightly shorter compared to the prior year period estimated at 3.6% currently versus 4.1% one year ago.

投資組合的久期（衡量價格對利率變化的敏感性的指標）與去年同期相比略有縮短，目前預計為 3.6%，而一年前為 4.1%。

This duration helps to manage the inherent interest rate mismatch between loans and deposits. With the larger deposit portfolio assumed to have a longer duration than our loan portfolio, fixed rate term investments are required to balance asset and liability durations.

這一期限有助於管理貸款和存款之間固有的利率錯配。由於假設較大的存款組合的久期比貸款組合的久期更長，因此需要固定利率定期投資來平衡資產和負債久期。

Slide 13 provides information about our interest rate sensitivity. While we provided standard parallel interest rate shock sensitivity measures in the appendix of this presentation, we believe a more dynamic view of interest rate sensitivity is most relevant in the current environment.

幻燈片 13 提供了有關我們的利率敏感性的資訊。雖然我們在本簡報的附錄中提供了標準的平行利率衝擊敏感度衡量指標，但我們認為，在當前環境下，對利率敏感度採取更動態的看法最為相關。

As noted in the bar chart on the far right side of the page, modeled net interest income in first quarter 2025 is 1.8% higher when compared to the first quarter of 2024, using the implied forward path of rates at March 31 and assuming a static balance sheet. 100 basis point parallel up and down shocks of this implied forward outcome suggests about 1% and 2.3% sensitivity around that figure, respectively.

如同頁面最右側的長條圖所示，使用 3 月 31 日的隱含利率遠期路徑並假設靜態，2025 年第一季的模擬淨利息收入比 2024 年第一季高出 1.8%資產負債表。這一隱含的前瞻性結果的 100 個基點平行向上和向下衝擊表明該數字的敏感度分別約為 1% 和 2.3%。

If no changes in rates were to occur, modeled net interest income is 80 basis points higher. This model analysis reveals that our balance sheet while asset-sensitive using traditional measures is positioned for net interest income growth if short-term rates fall faster than long-term rates.

如果利率沒有變化，則模擬的淨利息收入將高出 80 個基點。此模型分析表明，如果短期利率下降速度快於長期利率，我們的資產負債表雖然使用傳統措施對資產敏感，但仍會實現淨利息收入成長。

Utilizing this modeled outcome and overlaying management expectations for balance sheet changes in deposit pricing, we believe that net interest income in first quarter 2025 will be stable to slightly increasing when compared to the first quarter of 2024. Risks and opportunities associated with this outlook includes realized loan growth, competition for deposits and the path of interest rate changes across the yield curve.

利用此建模結果並疊加管理層對存款定價中資產負債表變化的預期，我們認為，與2024 年第一季相比，2025 年第一季的淨利息收入將穩定至小幅成長。一前景相關的風險和機會包括貸款成長、存款競爭以及利率在殖利率曲線上的變化路徑。

Moving to Slide 14. Credit quality and particularly net charge-offs remained strong. Net charge-offs were 4 basis points of loans in the quarter. The allowance for credit losses is 1.27% of loans, a 1 basis point increase over the prior quarter due to incremental reserves in the commercial real estate portfolio, partially offset by a modest improvement in our economic scenario. Notwithstanding strong net charge-off performance, we observed some indicators of modest credit deterioration in our credit portfolio. Nonperforming assets increased $26 million and classified and criticized loan balances increased by $104 million and $297 million, respectively.

轉到投影片 14。本季貸款淨沖銷額為 4 個基點。信貸損失準備金佔貸款的 1.27%，比上一季增加 1 個基點，因為商業房地產投資組合準備金增加，但部分被經濟狀況的溫和改善所抵消。儘管淨沖銷表現強勁，但我們在信貸投資組合中觀察到一些信貸適度惡化的跡象。不良資產增加​​2,600萬美元，分類和批評貸款餘額分別增加1.04億美元和2.97億美元。

As Harris noted, we continue to expect the ultimate realized loan losses will be very manageable over the remainder of the year. As we know it is a topic of interest we have included information regarding the commercial real estate portfolio with additional detail included in the appendix to this presentation.

正如哈里斯所指出的那樣，我們仍然預計今年剩餘時間內最終實現的貸款損失將非常可控。據我們所知，這是一個令人感興趣的話題，我們在本簡報的附錄中提供了有關商業房地產投資組合的資訊以及其他詳細資訊。

Slide 15 provides an overview of the CRE portfolio. CRE represents 23% of our total loan portfolio with office representing 14% of total CRE or 3% of total loan balances. Credit quality measures for the total CRE portfolio remain relatively strong, though criticized and classified levels increased during the quarter. Overall, we expect the CRE portfolio to perform reasonably well with limited losses based on the current economic outlook.

投影片 15 概述了商業房地產投資組合。 CRE 占我們總貸款組合的 23%，其中辦公大樓佔 CRE 總額的 14% 或總貸款餘額的 3%。儘管本季批評和分類水準有所增加，但整個商業房地產投資組合的信貸品質指標仍然相對較強。整體而言，根據當前的經濟前景，我們預期商業房地產投資組合將表現相當良好，損失有限。

Our loss-absorbing capital is shown on Slide 16. The CET ratio continued to grow in the first quarter to 10.4%. This, when combined with the allowance for credit losses, compares well to our risk profile as reflected in the low level of ongoing loan net charge-offs.

我們的損失吸收資本如投影片 16 所示。這與信貸損失準備金相結合，與我們的風險狀況相比較，正如持續貸款淨沖銷的低水平所反映的那樣。

We expect our common equity from both a regulatory and GAAP perspective to increase organically through earnings and that the AOCI improvement will continue through accretion of the securities portfolio regardless of rate path outcomes.

我們預計，從監管和公認會計原則的角度來看，我們的普通股將透過收益有機成長，並且無論利率路徑結果如何，AOCI 的改善將透過證券投資組合的增加而持續。

Slide 22 summarizes the financial outlook provided over the course of this presentation. As a reminder, this outlook represents our best current estimate for the financial performance for the first quarter of 2025 as compared to the first quarter of 2024.

投影片 22 總結了本簡報過程中提供的財務前景。提醒一下，這項展望代表了我們對 2025 年第一季與 2024 年第一季財務業績相比的最佳當前估計。

And with that, I'll turn the time back to Shannon.

說到這裡，我會把時間轉回香農身上。

This concludes our prepared remarks.

我們準備好的演講到此結束。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Darryl, please open the line for questions.

達裡爾，請撥打電話提問。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Our first question is coming from the line of Manan Gosalia with Morgan Stanley.

我們的第一個問題來自摩根士丹利的馬南·戈薩利亞（Manan Gosalia）。

Ryan, welcome, and congrats on the new role. I was wondering, can you dig into the NII guide and the assumption there in terms of the number of rate cuts? I'm assuming you're using the forward curve here? And also if you could talk about the assumptions on NIB outflow and deposit repricing and what sensitivity there is if we don't get any rate cuts this year?

瑞安，歡迎並祝賀擔任新角色。我想知道，您能否深入研究 NII 指南以及其中關於降息次數的假設？我假設您在這裡使用遠期曲線？另外，您是否可以談談關於 NIB 流出和存款重新定價的假設，以及如果我們今年沒有降息，會有什麼敏感度？

Thanks so much. And yes, when you look at some of the materials there and really -- we emphasize in my remarks, sort of the forward curve as of the end of the quarter. And embedded in that forward curve outlook in the fourth quarter of the year was a Fed funds rate of 4.75%, so implying 3 rate cuts. So that's kind of our base expectation, but I think as we open our inboxes each and every morning, seeing some indicators that would suggest perhaps fewer rate cuts for the year. We really see the advantage then of sharing some of our additional supplementary measures around latent and emergent sensitivity. And particularly, as we think about the like -- the possibility of having fewer rate cuts for the year, becomes more important as we think about that latent sort of view of interest rate sensitivity that we model at 0.8%.

非常感謝。是的，當你查看那裡的一些資料時，我們確實在我的演講中強調了截至本季末的遠期曲線。今年第四季的遠期曲線展望中包含了 4.75% 的聯邦基金利率，因此意味著 3 次降息。這是我們的基本預期，但我認為，當我們每天早上打開收件匣時，都會看到一些指標，表明今年可能會減少降息。我們確實看到了圍繞潛在和緊急敏感性分享一些額外補充措施的優勢。特別是，當我們考慮類似問題時，當我們考慮我們以 0.8% 為模型建模的利率敏感度的潛在觀點時，今年降息次數較少的可能性就變得更加重要。

So we feel good about our ability to be positioned well for different rate pivots and changes. So much of that performance, as you note, will be dependent upon how our deposit pricing behaves moving forward. We were pleased to see some stabilization of that during the quarter, and we'll continue to keep a watch on that moving forward as deposit competition continues to be pretty stiff. Were there any other parts of that question that I missed?

因此，我們對自己能夠針對不同的利率樞軸和變化做好定位的能力感到滿意。正如您所指出的，這種表現在很大程度上將取決於我們的存款定價未來的表現。我們很高興看到本季的情況有所穩定，我們將繼續關注這一情況，因為存款競爭仍然相當激烈。我錯過了該問題的其他部分嗎？

I think you got them. I wanted to follow up on just the deposit costs and balances. I know NIB outflows accelerated maybe a little bit this quarter, but at the same time, the overall cost of deposits was relatively flat. So maybe if you can talk about the trajectory through the quarter of both the NIB balances as well as the cost of deposits. Is there any seasonality there that we need to be considering? And what are you hearing from clients? Are you seeing them take a fresh look at their cash levels in a higher for longer rate environment or the positive trends continuing through the quarter?

我想你明白了。我只想跟進存款成本和餘額。我知道本季度NIB 的流出可能有所加速，但與此同時，存款的總體成本相對持平。那麼也許您可以談談 NIB 餘額和存款成本的整個季度的軌跡。我們需要考慮其中的季節性嗎？您從客戶那裡聽到了什麼？您是否看到他們在長期利率較高的環境中重新審視自己的現金水平，或者在本季持續的正面趨勢中？

Yes. No, thank you for that. So yes, so we did see early in the quarter some seasonality from some of our large commercial deposits that ran off. But most of what you're seeing there in terms of the change in the DDA balance in the quarter was a migration to interest-bearing that we saw in modest ways, certainly with a small -- smaller relationship balances, but also with our larger relationship balances. We've seen a very nice stabilization in the NIM going back for fourth quarters. And we saw, I think, even through the end of the period, where some of that migration was tempered somewhat.

是的。不，謝謝你。所以，是的，我們確實在本季初看到了一些大型商業存款流失的季節性。但是，就本季DDA 餘額的變化而言，您看到的大部分內容是我們以適度的方式看到了向計息的轉變，當然是在較小的關係餘額中，但也與我們較大的關係餘額有關。我們看到第四季的淨利差表現非常穩定。我認為，即使在這段時期的末期，我們也看到一些移民活動有所緩和。

We have not rolled out and we have allowed for continued migration that is embedded within our guidance that you'll see in our materials that would allow for our total deposit beta to scale up from this current level. So there is some room for maneuver in terms of that migration and still allowing us to hit our guidance as we peer forward in one year's time to stable to slightly increasing NII.

我們還沒有推出，我們已經允許繼續遷移，這嵌入在我們的指南中，您將在我們的材料中看到，這將使我們的總存款貝塔值從當前水平擴大。因此，在遷移方面存在一定的迴旋餘地，並且當我們展望一年後的NII穩定到略有增加時，仍然允許我們達到我們的指導。

Our next questions come from the line of John Pancari with Evercore.

我們的下一個問題來自 John Pancari 和 Evercore 的對話。

On the credit front -- on commercial real estate, you added a bit to the reserves. You brought the commercial real estate reserve up to about 4%, could you maybe discuss your confidence in the adequacy of the loan loss reserve. I mean I know losses are certainly limited. But comparatively, I know your peer regionals are in the 8% to 10% range around their reserving for commercial real estate. So can you maybe walk through your confidence in the adequacy here given the trends that you're seeing and the pressure on in the industry?

在信貸方面——在商業房地產方面，你們增加了一些準備金。您把商業不動產準備金提高到4%左右，能否談談您對貸款損失準備金充足性的信心？我的意思是我知道損失肯定是有限的。但相較之下，我知道你們的同業地區商業地產的預留比例在 8% 到 10% 之間。那麼，考慮到您所看到的趨勢和行業面臨的壓力，您能否談談您對這裡的充分性的信心？

Thanks, John. This is Derek. We're very confident in the level of reserves that we have. What you can see from -- in the credit portfolio is actually some migration into criticized, that's what's the largest driver of the deterioration in the CRE portfolio. A lot of that is from multifamily, which we're very comfortable with. We're comfortable just because of the loan to values that we've underwritten, the conservative underwriting that we've done over the years as well as the slower periods of growth that we've had compared to peers over the years. It's just with our loss -- the losses that we've had at 4 basis points and $6 million for the quarter, it continues to be very manageable. We'll see some challenges probably in the office portfolio over time, but we continue to believe that we're very well reserved for what we think are our manageable losses in the future.

謝謝，約翰。這是德里克。我們對我們擁有的儲備水準非常有信心。你可以從信貸投資組合中看到，實際上有些受到批評，這是商業房地產投資組合惡化的最大推動因素。其中很多來自多戶家庭，我們對此感到非常滿意。我們之所以感到舒適，只是因為我們承保的貸款價值、多年來我們所做的保守承保以及多年來與同行相比我們的增長較慢。只是考慮到我們的損失——本季度我們的損失為 4 個基點和 600 萬美元，它仍然是非常可控的。隨著時間的推移，我們可能會在辦公室投資組合中看到一些挑戰，但我們仍然相信，我們已經做好了應對未來可控損失的準備。

John, this is Scott. I would just add to that, that something which I think almost everybody knows about us, our CRE growth coming into this was about half of the regional buying average and depending on what size regional banks you're looking at. So as you know, since the Great Recession, our CRE book has been growing about 3% to 5% a year, which is significantly less than peers. I think the fact that it's 80% of the portfolio is term says that we have demonstrated cash flow related to a large portion of the book. And then you just look at the low average and median average loan size it sort of tells you that the odds of us having guarantor support that can actually make a difference is real.

約翰，這是史考特。我想補充一點，我想幾乎每個人都知道我們的情況，我們的商業房地產增長大約是區域購買平均值的一半，具體取決於您所關注的區域銀行的規模。如您所知，自大衰退以來，我們的 CRE 帳簿每年增長約 3% 至 5%，明顯低於同行。我認為它佔投資組合的 80% 這一事實表明我們已經證明了與本書大部分內容相關的現金流。然後你只要看看平均貸款規模的低值和中位數，它就可以告訴你，我們獲得擔保人支持實際上可以產生影響的可能性是真實的。

And then finally, and I think compared to some of our peers, we've been very disciplined about hold levels. And concentration management, particularly as it relates to hold levels is really important going into a time like this.

最後，我認為與我們的一些同行相比，我們對保留水準非常嚴格。集中管理，特別是與持有水準相關的集中管理，在這樣的時期非常重要。

Great. I appreciate it. And then separately, on the expense side, expense trends are coming a little bit better than expected. I think the outlook was a little bit better. Can you maybe remind us on some of the efforts on the expense front, if you see some incremental gains as you look through the franchise? And then separately, do you see -- can you remind us of the expense dynamics tied to the completion of the core system conversion. I believe, in year 1, you might actually get a bump up in those costs before you see efficiencies. So if you can maybe walk through that with us as well.

偉大的。我很感激。另外，在費用方面，費用趨勢比預期好一些。我認為前景好一點。如果您在查看特許經營權時看到一些增量收益，您能否提醒我們在費用方面所做的一些努力？然後，您能否提醒我們與完成核心系統轉換相關的費用動態。我相信，在第一年，在看到效率之前，您實際上可能會增加這些成本。所以如果你也可以和我們一起經歷這個過程。

Yes. Let me start with highlighting, I think, as was noted, the year-over-year performance, it was about a year ago this time where a commitment was made to bend the expense curve in the backdrop of the revenue environment that we're in, and we feel pleased with where we came out on an adjusted basis relative to that last year mark, having a very modest 0.4% increase in adjusted expenses.

是的。讓我先強調一下，我認為，正如所指出的，同比表現，大約在一年前的這個時候，我們承諾在收入環境的背景下彎曲費用曲線。滿意，調整後費用僅增加了0.4%。

So I feel like we kept commitments there, and we're really operating in this period of continuous improvement. That wasn't a won and done. We continue to inventory opportunities moving forward to make sure that we manage those responsibly, and we see opportunities, as you know, as we think about the very good success that Harris highlighted in his remarks on our core financial transformation work and how that's progressing.

所以我覺得我們信守了承諾，而且我們確實在這個持續改善的時期運作。這並不是一個成功的事。我們繼續盤點前進的機會，以確保我們負責任地管理這些機會，正如你所知，當我們想到哈里斯在我們的核心財務轉型工作及其進展情況的演講中強調的非常好的成功時，我們看到了機會。

We do see some opportunity in terms of direct implementation expense associated with that going into next year. We have been spending a lot of time internally focusing on where we can bring automation improvements. We've been mobilizing a lot of our people internally to drive out manual labor hours out of our work.

我們確實看到了與明年相關的直接實施費用方面的一些機會。我們在內部花費了大量時間專注於可以在哪些方面進行自動化改進。我們一直在內部動員大量員工，以減少工作中的體力勞動時間。

We see opportunities associated with kind of our facilities. And we've shown that we've had an ability to realize some economies there with some of the projects we've worked on in recent years. And our compensation structure will continue to match the revenue environment and how we trend across that dimension. So I don't know, Scott, if there's anything you'd want to add.

我們看到了與我們的設施相關的機會。我們已經證明，我們有能力透過近年來開展的一些專案來實現一些經濟成長。我們的薪酬結構將繼續與收入環境以及我們在該維度的趨勢相符。所以我不知道，史考特，你是否還有什麼要補充的。

No, Ryan, that was awesome, that all of those comments speak to the rigorous discipline we've had this quarter last year, as Ryan noted, we were sitting on about 8% to 10% and year-over-year expense growth when we called that we would be flat to the first quarter of this year. So it wasn't by accident. There was a lot of rigorous discipline that Ryan noted and that we think will be beneficial going forward.

不，Ryan，那太棒了，所有這些評論都說明了我們去年本季度的嚴格紀律，正如 Ryan 指出的那樣，當我們的費用同比增長約 8% 到 10% 時，我們稱今年第一季度的業績將持平。所以這並非偶然。瑞安指出，有許多嚴格的紀律，我們認為這將有益於未來的發展。

Related to our future core projects, specifically, we've noted that there will be next year in '25, about a $12 million to $15 million decrease in amortization costs. There will also be -- we'll see some benefit from reduced what we would call bubble staffing that exists in many areas of the bank to help with the conversions.

具體來說，與我們未來的核心項目相關，我們注意到明年 25 年攤銷成本將減少約 1,200 萬至 1,500 萬美元。我們也會看到一些好處，即減少銀行許多領域存在的泡沫人員配置，以幫助實現轉型。

And then I think we, as Harris noted, we've seen some real process time improvements at the teller line and on our new accounts platforms where we see higher levels of turnover anyway, where we may see some efficiency from that as well.

然後我認為，正如哈里斯指出的那樣，我們在櫃員熱線和新帳戶平台上看到了一些真正的流程時間改進，無論如何我們都看到了更高的營業額，我們也可能從中看到一些效率。

Our next questions come from the line of Steven Alexopoulos with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Steven Alexopoulos。

First, by the way, thanks for the 9:30 a.m. call. This is a great time slot. Hopefully, you keep it. For my question, yes, I won't ask a question on that. But in terms of the net interest income guidance, this comment in here that there's upside if short-term rates decline, most banks are indicating that if short-term rates come down because of the lag on the deposit side, they would think that would pressure NII in the short run, but it seems like you're saying the opposite here. Could you expand on that?

首先，順便感謝您上午 9:30 的來電。這是一個很好的時間段。希望你能保留它。對於我的問題，是的，我不會問這個問題。但就淨利息收入指引而言，這裡的評論是，如果短期利率下降，就會有上行空間，大多數銀行都表示，如果由於存款方面的滯後而導致短期利率下降，他們會認為，短期內會給NII帶來壓力，但你在這裡說的似乎相反。你能詳細談談？

Yes. I would emphasize the near-term nature of that. But what we're seeing there is if you think -- look across our basically our interest-bearing deposits, you size that around $50 billion. You think about 1/3 of those being priced pretty near wholesale prices, 4.75% above. We sort of said, as we've kind of been making the rounds that we expect to have a good bit of pricing sensitivity on those deposits that can be advantageous to us on the way down, and that would be the near-term headwinds if only short-term rates were to move down, not a parallel shift that we think that we could realize.

是的。我想強調這一點的近期性質。但我們看到的是，如果你想一想——看看我們基本上的生息存款，你的規模約為 500 億美元。你認為其中 1/3 的價格非常接近批發價，比批發價高出 4.75%。我們說過，正如我們一直在進行的那樣，我們預計對這些存款有一定的定價敏感性，這可能對我們在下跌過程中有利，如果出現這種情況，這將是近期的阻力只有短期利率會下降，而不是我們認為可以實現的平行轉變。

Got it. Okay. That's helpful. And then for my follow-up, maybe for you, Harris. It was interesting to hear you say that loan demand seemed to turn a corner. Because if you look at the consumer side, sentiment is still pretty negative, mostly tied to inflation, but it seems like you're inciting business customers, maybe sentiment is improving a bit. Can you talk about that? And do we need cuts to see improved pipelines turning to actual improved loans?

知道了。好的。這很有幫助。然後是我的後續行動，也許是為了你，哈里斯。聽到你說貸款需求似乎出現了好轉，這很有趣。因為如果你看消費者方面，情緒仍然相當消極，主要與通貨膨脹有關，但看起來你正在煽動商業客戶，也許情緒正在改善。你能談談嗎？我們是否需要削減開支才能看到改善的管道轉化為實際改善的貸款？

Well, I think what we're seeing is -- I mean, it's just -- this is coming from our kind of frontline lenders were expressing that they're seeing a little more optimism probably from borrowers. I don't know that you need cuts that this really hinges on a quarter a point, that's what's doing it so much. It's just probably a general belief that maybe the economy is not headed into recession that the things are a little more resilient than might have been kind of the sentiment 6 or 9 months ago. So I suspect that's it. But our comment about maybe improving loan demand coming at us is simply a reflection of what we're hearing from our lenders. So it's a little hard to quantify, but that's what we're seeing internally.

嗯，我認為我們看到的是——我的意思是，這只是——這來自我們的一線貸款人，他們表示他們看到借款人可能更加樂觀了。我不知道你是否需要削減，這實際上取決於四分之一的點，這就是這樣做的原因。人們可能普遍認為，經濟可能不會陷入衰退，情況比 6 或 9 個月前的情緒更有彈性。所以我懷疑就是這樣。但我們關於可能會改善貸款需求的評論只是反映了我們從貸方那裡聽到的情況。所以這有點難以量化，但這就是我們內部看到的。

In the past, when you saw an improvement in the pipeline, how long would that typically take to filter through actual loan growth improving?

過去，當您看到通路有所改善時，通常需要多長時間才能反映實際貸款成長的改善？

6 months.

6個月。

Our next question comes from the line of Bernard Von Gizycki with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Bernard Von Gizycki。

You've been making investments in your capital markets and Wealth Management segments to help drive a more sustainable revenue base. Capital Markets revenues had a nice uptick in the quarter driven by the real estate and securities underwriting you mentioned. Do you expect improvement to be driven from these areas? Or any color you can provide on where the expected improvement will come from?

您一直在資本市場和財富管理領域進行投資，以幫助推動更永續的收入基礎。在您提到的房地產和證券承銷的推動下，本季資本市場收入出現了良好的成長。您預計這些方面會帶來改善嗎？或者您可以提供任何顏色來說明預期改進的來源嗎？

I might just say that we have a very intentional calling effort. We've got a lot of anchors engaged in it. And I generally expect it's going to be sort of across the board. And we have some ambitious internal targets and people committed to it. So I don't think it's going to be any single category. I think you're going to see it sort of across the board in capital markets.

我可能只是說，我們有一個非常有意的呼籲努力。我們有很多主播參與其中。我通常預計這將是全面的。我們有一些雄心勃勃的內部目標和致力於實現這些目標的人員。所以我認為這不會是任何單一類別。我認為你會在資本市場上全面看到這一點。

And then maybe on the funding side. I know on Slide 11 of your presentation, you having the $4 billion in brokered deposits and $5 billion in borrowings. And you've done a nice job of bringing these down over the last several quarters. What are your expectations on further bringing down wholesale borrowings for this year?

然後也許是資金方面。我在您簡報的第 11 張投影片上知道，您擁有 40 億美元的經紀存款和 50 億美元的借款。在過去的幾個季度裡，你們在降低這些問題方面做得很好。您對今年進一步降低批發借貸有何期望？

I can't speak to that one. We got Matt Tyler, appreciate you might have a thought about it.

我不能和那個人說話。我們請來了馬特泰勒，感謝您考慮一下。

This is Matt Tyler. I'm the Corporate Treasurer. I mean it's really -- we've seen deposits kind of stabilizing from where after last year and actually, we saw this growth after last year, which is why we brought down those broker deposits. Going forward, it's going to really be a function of what happens with our deposits, what happens with our loan growth. We expect those numbers to continue to come down somewhat. But that depends on how the rest of the balance sheet behaves, whether loan growth is super heap, comes in very strong, then we probably need to keep more of that wholesale borrowing.

這是馬特泰勒。我是公司財務主管。我的意思是，我們確實看到存款從去年之後開始趨於穩定，實際上，我們在去年之後看到了這種增長，這就是我們減少經紀商存款的原因。展望未來，這實際上將取決於我們的存款和貸款成長的情況。我們預計這些數字將繼續下降。但這取決於資產負債表其他部分的表現，貸款成長是否超級強勁，是否非常強勁，那麼我們可能需要保留更多的批發借款。

I would just add to that, that customer deposits down a little bit in the first quarter, which as Ryan says, somewhat seasonal. We still got -- we still have about $6 billion in client deposits that are off balance sheet. And so it's a pretty conscious decision. We could certainly have shown $1 billion, $2 billion of customer deposit growth. Borrowings would have come down, overnight borrowings would have come down. And it's something we don't -- we just try to make very natural decisions, not try to bend the borrowings number or hit a customer deposit growth number just simply through rate mechanics, we try to make the best decision we can about what customers really need and what we're looking for at any point in time.

我想補充一點，第一季客戶存款略有下降，正如瑞安所說，這有點季節性。我們仍然有大約 60 億美元的客戶存款在資產負債表外。所以這是一個非常有意識的決定。我們當然可以顯示 10 億美元、20 億美元的客戶存款成長。借款將會下降，隔夜借款也會下降。這是我們不做的事情——我們只是嘗試做出非常自然的決定，而不是試圖僅僅通過利率機制來降低借款數量或達到客戶存款增長數字，我們嘗試就客戶的需求做出最佳決定任何時候我們真正需要的東西以及我們正在尋找的東西。

Our next questions come from the line of Ken Usdin with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自肯·烏斯丁 (Ken Usdin) 和傑弗里斯 (Jefferies) 的電話。

Can I just ask you a little bit more about the mix of earning assets. You mentioned that cash and securities would be keep coming down. What are you going to be looking to do within that in terms of securities portfolio rollovers and versus the overall mix of the cash and securities.

可以再問你一些關於獲利資產組合的問題嗎？您提到現金和證券將持續下降。在證券投資組合展期以及現金和證券的整體組合方面，您將尋求做什麼。

Yes. Thanks for that, Ken. You've noticed the trend that we've allowed our investment securities portfolio to have some attrition. We can see that continuing for a time longer. And that's helping us in terms of that yield coming off and the reinvestments we've been seeing in loans and the remix of the balance sheet has been a nice trend through the course of the past year, and we certainly saw that this past quarter. So I don't know that we have a specific number in line. It kind of goes back to what Matt said is, let's see where the loan growth shows up and how our deposit base behaves, but that's what we've been seeing.

是的。謝謝你，肯。您已經注意到我們允許投資證券投資組合出現一定損耗的趨勢了。我們可以看到這種情況會持續更長的時間。這對我們的收益率下降以及我們在貸款和資產負債表重組中看到的再投資方面有所幫助，這是過去一年中的一個很好的趨勢，我們在過去的季度中當然看到了這一點。所以我不知道我們排隊的具體數字。這有點回到馬特所說的，讓我們看看貸款成長出現在哪裡以及我們的存款基礎如何表現，但這就是我們一直看到的。

Okay. And then separately, I know you're at $87 billion, far away from that next 100 threshold. I'm just wondering if you could talk us through how not having the holding company structure, it changes how you guys think about approaching that and think about getting the company ready especially given your history where you work a Category 5 bank originally and have some of that infrastructure. Can you just kind of help us think about like what needs to happen as you move forward and what we would be realizing along the way there?

好的。另外，我知道您的收入為 870 億美元，距離下一個 100 的門檻還很遠。我只是想知道您是否可以告訴我們如何沒有控股公司結構，它會改變您對解決這一問題的看法，並考慮讓公司做好準備，特別是考慮到您最初在第5 類銀行工作的歷史，並且有一些該基礎設施的。您能否幫助我們思考一下在您前進的過程中需要發生什麼以及我們在過程中將實現什麼？

I'll take a step at that, Ken, it's Harris. I mean the first thing I'd note is just picking up on something that Ryan said about continued run down in the securities portfolio. We have enough liquidity kind of inherently here that it probably gives us, I don't know if it's another year or just kind of what, but it is going to help us kind of push that data out, which helps with the AOCI runoff, and in kind of normalizing getting that drag down in advance of crossing 100.

我會採取行動，肯，我是哈里斯。我的意思是，我要注意的第一件事是瑞安所說的關於證券投資組合持續下跌的事情。我們固有地擁有足夠的流動性，這可能會給我們帶來，我不知道是另一年還是什麼，但它將幫助我們推出這些數據，這有助於 AOCI 徑流，並在突破100 之前將阻力降低到正常化水平。

In terms of the kind of requirements, I think we believe we're in pretty good shape because we continue -- we're still doing stress testing. We think there -- we'll probably have to be a little more rigorous in terms of kind of the documentation that we would supply to regulators, et cetera. But all the mechanics, we continue to refresh models. We will need to get back into the resolution plan business. But our structure, I think, makes that actually much easier.

就需求類型而言，我認為我們相信我們的狀態非常好，因為我們仍在繼續進行壓力測試。我們認為，我們可能必須在向監管機構等提供的文件類型方面更加嚴格。但所有的機制，我們都在不斷刷新模型。我們需要重新開始決議計劃業務。但我認為，我們的結構實際上使這變得容易得多。

I mean it's a pretty bare bones structure that we have that I think makes resolution planning all the much easier. The lack of a holding company, probably the main impact is there's no supervisory stress test. It's really only internal. And so until we get to, I think, $250,000. So fundamentally, I don't think that we're going to see kind of a major event when we get there. probably the major event really is depending on how Basel III endgame gets revised, as we would expect, and what if anything happens with a long-term debt rule. I mean I think that, if I have a concern, it's probably more around the long-term debt rule. I think that needs to get revisited. It's sort of anti-tailored for $100 billion regional bank. And so my hope is that we'll see some attention paid to that as well. But beyond that, I think we're going to be in pretty good shape.

我的意思是，這是我們擁有的一個非常簡單的結構，我認為它使分辨率規劃變得更加容易。缺乏控股公司，主要影響可能是沒有監管壓力測試。這確實只是內部的。我想，直到我們達到 25 萬美元。所以從根本上來說，我認為當我們到達那裡時我們不會看到重大事件。也許重大事件實際上取決於巴塞爾協議 III 的最終結果如何修改，正如我們所期望的，以及如果長期債務規則發生任何情況會怎樣。我的意思是，我認為，如果我有擔憂的話，那可能更多的是圍繞長期債務規則。我認為這需要重新檢視。這有點反為 1000 億美元的地區銀行量身定制。所以我希望我們也會看到對此給予一些關注。但除此之外，我認為我們的狀態將會非常好。

Our next questions come from the line of Brandon King with Truist Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Brandon King。

So I wanted to talk about earning asset yields, saw a nice increase in the quarter. Could you just lay out what your expectations are for that pace of increase over the next several quarters?

所以我想談談獲利資產收益率，本季看到了不錯的成長。您能否列出您對未來幾季成長速度的預期？

Thank you for that, as we've sort of been talking along the way, we did have a nice pickup this quarter in earning asset yields. We've sort of been guiding to 0 to 5 basis points. And I think if you look over a couple of quarters, we've been able to chin that bar. So some good repricing activity, which was really borne out in that latent sensitivity that we showed in the slide that if nothing else happens with the rate curve, we stand to gain here.

謝謝您，正如我們一直在談論的那樣，本季我們的資產收益率確實有了不錯的回升。我們一直在引導 0 到 5 個基點。我認為，如果你看看過去幾個季度，我們已經能夠超越這個標準了。因此，一些良好的重新定價活動確實在我們在幻燈片中顯示的潛在敏感性中得到了證實，如果利率曲線沒有發生其他變化，我們將在這裡受益。

Okay. And do you think you can still go above that, I guess, 0 to 5? Is that a fair assumption? Or is that still the kind of the range?

好的。我想，你認為你還能超越這個數字，0 到 5 嗎？這是一個公平的假設嗎？或者說這仍然是這個範圍嗎？

I wouldn't rule it out, but that's kind of where we've been talking for the market and not wanting to get ahead of ourselves.

我不排除這種可能性，但這就是我們一直在為市場說話而不是想超越自己的地方。

Okay. And then lastly, in office CRE, there was a meaningful step down in that portfolio. Also in criticized classified nonaccruals. So could you just talk about how you're managing that portfolio? What are you seeing and how you're actively managing internal metrics?

好的。最後，在辦公室 CRE 中，該投資組合出現了有意義的下降。也受到批評的分類非應計費用。那麼您能談談您是如何管理該投資組合的嗎？您看到了什麼以及您如何積極管理內部指標？

Yes. Thanks, Brandon. This is Derek. The decline in office criticized and classifieds is actually one positive resolution that we had. We were paid in full on a non-accrual loan where we'd actually previously had a charge-off last year. So that -- we just continue to work through the office portfolio. You'll see that we've actually reduced that portfolio over time. And we'll still have some office challenges, I'm sure, for the next little while. But so far, we've actually had positive resolutions there.

是的。謝謝，布蘭登。這是德里克。辦公室批評和分類廣告的減少實際上是我們的積極解決方案。我們收到了一筆非應計貸款的全額付款，而我們去年實際上已經沖銷了這筆貸款。因此，我們只是繼續處理辦公室投資組合。您會發現，隨著時間的推移，我們實際上已經減少了該投資組合。我確信，在接下來的一段時間內，我們仍然會面臨一些辦公室挑戰。但到目前為止，我們實際上已經有了積極的解決方案。

Our next questions come from the line of Peter Winter with D.A. Davidson.

我們的下一個問題來自 Peter Winter 和 D.A.戴維森。

Can you provide some color on the increase in the C&I classified loans?

您能否提供一些有關 C&I 分類貸款成長的資訊？

Yes. Thank you. This is Derek again. The increase in the classifieds this quarter, there was actually one assisted living facility as Harris related, just was experiencing slower lease-up and some higher expenses that migrated to classified. And then there were a number of other C&I credits. It's just nothing large trends to point out or specific industries, but just they were C&I credits that migrated into classifieds.

是的。謝謝。這又是德瑞克。本季度分類廣告的增加，實際上有一個輔助生活設施，正如哈里斯所說，只是租賃速度較慢，並且一些較高的費用轉移到了分類廣告。還有一些其他 C&I 學分。這並不是什麼需要指出的大趨勢或特定行業，而只是遷移到分類廣告中的 C&I 信用。

Okay. And separately, just when I look at the interest-bearing deposit cost, it's pretty impressive, it decreased 3 basis points because you're seeing most peers have an increase of roughly 8 to 15 basis points this quarter. What's the outlook for deposit costs going forward if there's no Fed cuts this year?

好的。另外，當我查看計息存款成本時，它非常令人印象深刻，它下降了 3 個基點，因為你看到大多數同行本季增加了大約 8 到 15 個基點。如果聯準會今年不降息，未來存款成本的前景如何？

Yes. Listen, I'm happy to say a few words there. Listen, as we look at our trending, we still really like our overall total cost of deposits, and we stack up pretty favorably on that basis. It's fair to say as we play this game of catch-up we got a little bit behind pricing that we ran up on the interest-bearing yields appropriately for the time. And -- but we've kind of now have gotten out of the pattern of where we've really been historically relative to peers. And so we have observed that, and we've been looking for ways to manage appropriately working with our clients to meet their needs, but also relative to other funding sources, making sure that we're not extending ourselves too much on the rate paid. And so we did see some success with that, and we plan to continue working on that. I don't know Harris if there is anything you want to add.

是的。聽著，我很高興在那裡說幾句話。聽著，當我們觀察我們的趨勢時，我們仍然非常喜歡我們的整體存款成本，並且在此基礎上我們的表現相當不錯。公平地說，當我們玩這個追趕遊戲時，我們的定價有點落後，我們當時適當地提高了有息收益率。而且——但我們現在已經擺脫了我們歷史上與同行相對的模式。因此，我們觀察到了這一點，我們一直在尋找適當的方法來管理與客戶的合作，以滿足他們的需求，而且相對於其他資金來源，確保我們不會在支付的利率上過度擴張。所以我們確實看到了一些成功，我們計劃繼續努力。不知道哈里斯你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Nothing, I think that captured it really well, it's good.

沒什麼，我認為捕捉得很好，很好。

Our next questions come from the line of Chris McGratty with KBW.

我們的下一個問題來自 KBW 的 Chris McGratty。

Harris, any big picture changes in use of capital for the next maybe year or 2, rebuilding capital with OCI, but just more broadly, uses of capital?

哈里斯，未來一年或兩年的資本使用是否會發生重大變化，與 OCI 重建資本，但更廣泛地說，資本的使用？

No. I mean, look, I think as we think about capital over the next couple of years, we're clearly going to be focused on the $100 billion kind of thresholds and what that means. And thinking about what our ratios are going to look like, crossing that mark. And beyond that, we are very focused internally to try and invest in things that generate higher returns, so fee income businesses like capital markets, wealth, we're highly focused on small business lending. Sentiment there has been kind of tough in that market over the last 3 or 4 years, I think with pandemic, but I think that's probably -- we're seeing maybe some change there and noted that kind of SBA lending is turning into a bright spot for us. And we really like that business not only because the -- you get a little better spread, but it really -- it brings the kinds of deposits that I think really build a sustainable franchise, create a lot of franchise value.

不。並思考我們的比率將會是什麼樣子，超過這個標準。除此之外，我們在內部非常注重嘗試投資於能夠產生更高回報的事物，因此資本市場、財富等費用收入業務，我們高度關注小型企業貸款。我認為在過去的3 或4 年裡，由於大流行，該市場的情緒有些艱難，但我認為這可能是——我們可能看到那裡發生了一些變化，並注意到這種SBA 貸款正在變成一種光明的選擇。我們真的很喜歡這項業務，不僅因為——你會得到更好的傳播，而且它真的——它帶來了我認為真正建立可持續特許經營權的存款，創造了很多特許經營價值。

They're smaller operating -- operating accounts, they're insured, they're sticky. And so there are a lot of things we can do for small and middle market kinds of customers. that add value. And so that's just -- that's a real primary focus. We're trying to do more incrementally on the consumer front. That's not been a major kind of driver for us in recent years, but we think there's some opportunity there.

它們是規模較小的營運帳戶，有保險，有黏性。因此，我們可以為中小型市場的客戶做很多事情。增加價值。所以這才是真正的主要焦點。我們正在努力在消費者方面逐步進行更多工作。近年來，這並不是我們的主要推動力，但我們認為其中存在一些機會。

Again, largely with a view to creating a more fully insured deposit base. I mean, I think that's just an editorial comment. I mean I think the -- if there's a crying need out there, it's for a look at the deposit insurance system. I think it's fundamentally broken. And it should be a source of concern about it for anybody who's trying to think about the longer-term sustainability of a diversified banking system. In the absence of that, we need to be really focused on building at a more granular deposit base.

同樣，主要是為了建立一個更充分保險的存款基礎。我的意思是，我認為這只是一個社論評論。我的意思是，我認為——如果有迫切的需要，那就是檢查存款保險制度。我認為它從根本上被打破了。對於任何試圖思考多元化銀行體系長期可持續性的人來說，這都應該引起關注。如果沒有這一點，我們需要真正專注於建立更細緻的存款基礎。

And so that's a real focus of ours. It will be, I think, in years to come. So anyway, those are -- that's not all about capital, but it's -- but those are kind of some of the activities we're focused on.

所以這是我們真正關注的焦點。我想，在未來的幾年裡將會如此。所以無論如何，這些並不是全部都與資本有關，但它們是我們關注的一些活動。

That's great. And just my follow-up would be in terms of the tax rate, is the first quarter a good run rate for the rest of the year.

那太棒了。我的後續行動是稅率方面，第一季的運行率對於今年剩餘時間是否良好。

Yes. I don't have any different guidance to give you at this point in time.

是的。目前我沒有任何不同的指導可以給你。

Our next questions come from the line of Ben Gerlinger with Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗集團的本傑林格 (Ben Gerlinger)。

Just had a quick question on the multifamily uptick. You guys lay out the geographic presence by state in terms of just percentages. Is it a fair assumption to think that the uptick is kind of uniform across that? Or is there a certain stage of areas in the United States are starting to see a little bit more kind of indigestion amongst multifamily?

剛剛有一個關於多戶住宅成長的快速問題。你們只用百分比來列出各州的地理分佈。認為整個上漲趨勢是均勻的，這是合理的假設嗎？或者說，美國某些地區是否在某個階段開始出現多戶家庭消化不良的情況？

Thanks for the question. This is Derek again. It's a good question. It's actually -- we're not seeing it in a specific market. I mean real estate is very local. It depends on what street corner you're on. And so it depends on the markets and what we're seeing on the multifamily side is really 3 primary issues: one is, in some cases, there's a higher cost to complete the projects and so -- and delays on the projects. And so we see some issues there on the construction side, maybe a smaller percentage. And then the larger issues are really just slower lease-up, maybe some rent concessions early on during the lease-up period combined with interest rates increasing. And what we're seeing is it's taking longer to get to stabilization than what we originally projected for a number of these projects. But they continue to -- the sponsors continue to support them. They're bringing equity in to continue to support them as they get to stabilization.

謝謝你的提問。這又是德瑞克。這是一個好問題。事實上，我們並沒有在特定市場上看到它。我的意思是房地產非常本地化。這取決於你在哪個街角。因此，這取決於市場，我們在多戶住宅方面看到的實際上是三個主要問題：一是在某些情況下，完成專案的成本更高，等等——以及專案的延誤。因此，我們在施工方面看到了一些問題，也許比例較小。然後，更大的問題實際上只是租賃速度變慢，也許在租賃期間早期會出現一些租金優惠，再加上利率上升。我們看到的是，其中一些項目達到穩定所需的時間比我們最初預計的要長。但他們繼續——贊助商繼續支持他們。他們正在引入股權，以繼續支持他們走向穩定。

We've seen this exact same process play out in previous cycles and in previous geographies. And you'll see some great migration to criticized and classified -- but because of the post -- Great Recession underwriting, which was about twice as much equity, no secondary or tertiary land, covenant packages that require very specific remedies as opposed to just coming to the table.

我們已經在先前的周期和之前的地區看到了完全相同的過程。你會看到一些重大的遷移到批評和分類——但因為大衰退後的承保，大約是股本的兩倍，沒有二級或三級土地，需要非常具體的補救措施的契約包，而不是僅僅來到談判桌前。

One of the nice things about multifamily is you might hit periods of rent concessions and slower lease-up. But generally, this cash flow -- and with the doubling of equity, it's why we think we'll see a path through the multifamily softness.

多戶型住宅的好處之一是，您可能會遇到租金優惠和租賃緩慢的時期。但總的來說，這種現金流以及隨著股本翻倍，這就是為什麼我們認為我們將看到一條克服多戶住宅疲軟的道路。

Got you. That's helpful color. And then when you just think about just kind of commercial real estate as a whole. I know you talked about some kind of looming problems to work through within office. Is office kind of, I hate to use the phrase, the next shoe to drop, but is that where you're likely to see the next incremental increase in criticized classified. I know this does have a charge-off, but -- or do you think it's a little bit more uniform across all CRE?

明白你了。這是有用的顏色。然後當你只考慮整個商業房地產。我知道您談到了辦公室內需要解決的一些迫在眉睫的問題。我討厭用「下一隻鞋子掉下來」這個詞，但在辦公室裡你可能會看到批評分類的下一個增量增加。我知道這確實有沖銷，但是——或者您認為所有 CRE 的情況更加統一嗎？

Well, it's probably all CRE has been impacted by the increase in interest rates. And then some slowdown in the multifamily leasing office certainly has been challenge for some time coming out of the pandemic. And so we're -- on the office side, we have $1.9 billion. We've actually reduced that intentionally over the last 4, 5 years. So we were kind of ahead of it even before the pandemic. And the other thing that we have is we're just -- we were never in the large CBD downtown trophy office properties that say, New York City. It's just not our markets. It's not what we do. And so I think the office will continue to have some challenges from what we do have, but I think it will be manageable over the next -- the near term.

嗯，可能所有商業房地產都受到了利率上升的影響。疫情過後一段時間以來，多戶型租賃辦公室的放緩無疑是個挑戰。因此，在辦公室方面，我們有 19 億美元。事實上，在過去的四五年裡，我們有意減少了這個數量。因此，即使在大流行之前，我們就已經走在了前面。我們擁有的另一件事是，我們從來沒有在紐約市的大型中央商務區市中心獎盃辦公室物業。這不是我們的市場。這不是我們做的。因此，我認為該辦公室將繼續面臨我們現有的一些挑戰，但我認為在接下來的短期內，這些挑戰將是可控的。

Our next questions come from the line of Brian Foran with Autonomous.

我們的下一個問題來自 Autonomous 的 Brian Foran。

Harris, I wonder if I could just follow up on the deposit insurance broken comment. Is it the level the $250,000 or is it the lack of a separate system for operating accounts? Or maybe you could just give that next level of detail of what the key change you would like to see is?

哈里斯，我想知道我是否可以跟進存款保險問題的評論。是25萬美元的水平還是缺乏單獨的帳戶作業系統？或者，也許您可以更詳細地說明您希望看到的關鍵變化是什麼？

Well, yes, I mean I'd start with the fact that the $250,000, which was last established -- it was last changed in, I think, 2011. It's not indexed for inflation. And so it's lost about close to 1/3 of its purchasing power, if you will, since it was last changed. So the real deposit insurance has come down by nearly 1/3 since the last change.

嗯，是的，我的意思是，我首先要考慮的事實是，最後一次確定的 25 萬美元——我認為最後一次更改是在 2011 年。因此，自上次更改以來，如果您願意的話，它已經損失了近 1/3 的購買力。所以實際存款保險自上次變動以來已經下降了近1/3。

You have a world in which -- I mean Dodd-Frank was largely intended to solve the Too Big to Fail Problem. We saw with SVB episode, that Too Big to Fail was still there. Not only is it there, it was basically given the example of approval by treasury department and others during a crisis, you saw the flow of funds going from smaller banks to the very -- to a very, very small handful of very large banks. And it's not because it wasn't because of capital, credit quality, et cetera, et cetera, it's because they're de facto insured. And so you have a very large portion of the nation's deposits that are de facto insured.

我的意思是，多德弗蘭克法案主要是為了解決「太大而不能倒」的問題。我們在 SVB 劇集中看到，「太大而不能倒」仍然存在。不僅如此，它基本上是在危機期間得到財政部和其他部門批准的例子，你看到資金從較小的銀行流向非常非常小的幾家非常大的銀行。這並不是因為資本、信用品質等等原因，而是因為他們事實上受到了保險。因此，國家存款中有很大一部分實際上受到了保險。

You have among those who are not Too Big to Fail, you probably got, call it, half of those deposits are fully insured. And so it leaves kind of this sliver, 20%, 25% of deposits out there that are not insured, but that's where all the instability is coming from.

在那些不是「太大而不能倒」的人中，你可能會說，這些存款的一半是完全保險的。因此，留下了一小部分，20%、25% 的存款沒有保險，但這就是所有不穩定的根源。

And I'm not to suggest here during this call what the solution ought to be, but I'm a little disheartened that there hasn't been more focus on it by policymakers who are going to wait until the next crisis for it to rear its head again. And I simply think it ought to be something that everybody is focused on. But in the absence of that, it's important that we remain focused on developing the insured portion of that deposit base. It just becomes fundamentally important. It's really why SVB is no longer here today is because they didn't have an insured deposit base.

我並不是在這次電話會議中提出解決方案應該是什麼，但令我有點沮喪的是，政策制定者並沒有更多地關注這個問題，他們將等到下一次危機爆發時再關注它。它的頭。我只是認為這應該成為每個人都關注的事情。但在缺乏這一點的情況下，重要的是我們繼續專注於發展存款基礎的保險部分。它變得非常重要。 SVB 今天不再存在的真正原因是他們沒有受保險的存款基礎。

That's very helpful. And then maybe just on the capital discussion rounding that out, you were clear, common equity will increase and you gave the AOCI burndown projection. The CET1 kind of in the 10.5% range, is that kind of a good landing spot? Or do you see that increasing as well over the next year?

這非常有幫助。然後，也許就在資本討論中，您很清楚，普通股將會增加，並且您給出了 AOCI 燃盡預測。 CET1大概在10.5%的範圍內，這是一個很好的著陸點嗎？或者您認為明年這一數字還會增加嗎？

Well, look, I don't think we'll be doing -- other than probably covering the cost of employee stock grants, that kind of thing, I don't think we're going to be in the stock buyback mode here for a while until we can see greater clarity and really understand that we're going to be in solid shape, crossing 100. I don't know quite where that ratio is, it's really going to depend on what loan growth looks like this year. But we're focused on increasing the tangible common equity ratio, getting AOCI behind us, and we want to have strong capital here.

好吧，聽著，我認為我們不會做——除了可能支付員工股票授予的成本之外，諸如此類的事情，我認為我們不會在這裡處於股票回購模式還需要一段時間，直到我們能夠更加清楚地看到並真正理解我們將處於穩定狀態，突破100。但我們專注於提高有形普通股比率，讓 AOCI 為我們提供支持，我們希望在這裡擁有雄厚的資本。

Thank you. We have reached the end of our question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn the floor back over to Shannon Drage for closing remarks.

謝謝。我們的問答環節已經結束。現在我想請 Shannon Drage 致閉幕詞。

Thank you, Darryl, and thank you to all for joining us today. If you have additional questions, please contact us at the e-mail or phone number listed on our website. We look forward to connecting with you throughout the coming months. Thank you for your interest in Zions Bancorporation. This concludes our call.

謝謝你，達裡爾，也謝謝大家今天加入我們。如果您還有其他問題，請透過我們網站上列出的電子郵件或電話號碼與我們聯絡。我們期待在未來幾個月與您聯繫。感謝您對錫安銀行的關注。我們的通話到此結束。

Thank you. This does conclude today's teleconference. You may disconnect at this time. Thank you for your participation. Enjoy the rest of your day.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開連線。感謝您的參與。享受你一天剩下的時間。