Zillow Group Inc (ZG) 2021 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon. My name is Jordan, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Zillow Group Fourth Quarter 2021 Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded.

午安.我叫喬丹，今天我將擔任你們的會議操作員。在此，我歡迎大家參加 Zillow 集團 2021 年第四季電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，正在記錄此事件。

Thank you. I would now like to turn the conference over to Brad Berning, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

謝謝。現在我想將會議交給投資人關係副總裁布拉德‧伯寧 (Brad Berning)。請繼續。

Thank you, Jordan. Good afternoon, and welcome to Zillow Group's Fourth Quarter 2021 Conference Call. Joining me today to discuss our results are Zillow Group's Co-Founder and CEO, Rich Barton; and CFO, Allen Parker. In addition to our typical materials, today, we also published an investor presentation, which is available on the Investor Relations website. This deck will provide additional color to much of what we are talking about today.

謝謝你，喬丹。下午好，歡迎參加 Zillow Group 2021 年第四季電話會議。今天與我一起討論我們成果的是 Zillow Group 共同創辦人兼執行長 Rich Barton；和財務長艾倫·帕克。除了我們的典型資料外，今天我們還發布了一份投資者演示文稿，可在投資者關係網站上取得。這套牌將為我們今天討論的大部分內容提供額外的色彩。

During today's call, we'll be making forward-looking statements about our future performance and operating plans based on current expectations and assumptions. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, and we encourage you to consider the risk factors described in our SEC filings for additional information. We undertake no obligation to update these statements as a result of new information or future events, except as required by law. This call is being broadcast on the Internet and is accessible on our Investor Relations website.

在今天的電話會議中，我們將根據當前的預期和假設對未來業績和營運計劃做出前瞻性陳述。這些陳述存在風險和不確定性，我們鼓勵您考慮我們向 SEC 提交的文件中所述的風險因素以獲取更多資訊。我們不承擔因新資訊或未來事件而更新這些聲明的義務，除非法律要求。這次電話會議正在網路上播出，並且可以在我們的投資者關係網站上存取。

During the call, we will discuss GAAP and non-GAAP measures, including adjusted EBITDA, which we refer to as EBITDA. We encourage you to read our shareholder letter and our earnings release, which can be found on our Investor Relations website as they contain important information about our GAAP and non-GAAP results, including reconciliations of historical non-GAAP financial measures. In addition, please note, we will refer to our Internet, Media & Telecom -- Technology segment as our IMT segment. We will now open the call with remarks followed by live Q&A.

在電話會議期間，我們將討論 GAAP 和非 GAAP 指標，包括調整後的 EBITDA，我們稱之為 EBITDA。我們鼓勵您閱讀我們的股東信和收益報告，這些內容可以在我們的投資者關係網站上找到，因為它們包含有關我們的 GAAP 和非 GAAP 業績的重要信息，包括歷史非 GAAP 財務指標的調節表。此外，請注意，我們將把我們的互聯網、媒體和電信技術部門稱為我們的 IMT 部門。我們現在將首先發表講話，然後進行現場問答。

And with that, I will turn the call over to Rich.

然後，我會將電話轉給 Rich。

Thank you, Brad. Hello, everyone. I hope you and your families are safe and healthy. Despite volatility, stubborn COVID variants, mixed macro signals in the geopolitical environment, I'm feeling grounded and excited by what's happening at Zillow and the opportunity in front of us. Today, we're going to walk through the next steps for Zillow as we grow our core business, innovate to make it easier for people to move and provide a progress report on the wind-down of our Zillow-owned homes inventory.

謝謝你，布拉德。大家好。我希望您和您的家人安全健康。儘管地緣政治環境存在波動、新冠病毒頑固變異、宏觀信號混雜，但我對 Zillow 發生的事情以及我們面前的機會感到踏實和興奮。今天，我們將逐步介紹 Zillow 的後續步驟，以發展我們的核心業務，進行創新，讓人們更輕鬆地出行，並提供有關 Zillow 擁有的房屋庫存逐步減少的進度報告。

First, on the inventory wind-down. We are selling homes faster than we anticipated at better pricing levels than we projected. We have now sold or entered into agreements to sell or dispose of more than 85% of our inventory, which Allen will speak about more. The wind-down process is running smoothly, efficiently, and we expect it to generate positive cash flow. We felt confident in November and we feel even more confident today that exiting iBuying and eliminating housing market balance sheet risk to our company and our shareholders was a great decision while giving full respect to the affected employees.

首先，關於去庫存。我們出售房屋的速度比我們預期的要快，價格水平也比我們預期的要好。我們現在已經出售或簽署了出售或處置 85% 以上庫存的協議，艾倫將對此進行更多討論。關閉過程正在順利、有效率地進行，我們預計它將產生正現金流。我們在 11 月充滿信心，今天更加充滿信心，退出 iBuying 並消除我們公司和股東的房地產市場資產負債表風險是一個偉大的決定，同時充分尊重受影響的員工。

Moving forward, we know our customers better than we ever have before because we've been in the trenches with them, buying and selling thousands of homes. We developed valuable software services and support that persist. And we've been freed up to turn our formidable R&D capabilities and capacity toward innovating for a much broader set of mover customers than the narrow focus that iBuying allowed. As we look to the future, we have the building blocks in place, and now it's about stacking them in new, impactful ways to solve more problems for more customers and partners.

展望未來，我們比以往任何時候都更了解我們的客戶，因為我們一直與他們並肩作戰，買賣了數千套房屋。我們開發了有價值的軟體服務和持續支援。我們可以自由地利用我們強大的研發能力和能力，為更廣泛的搬家客戶群進行創新，而不僅僅是 iBuying 所允許的狹隘焦點。展望未來，我們已經具備了建構模組，現在需要以新的、有影響力的方式將它們堆疊起來，為更多客戶和合作夥伴解決更多問題。

I'd like to emphasize that the problem we are solving is not new to us. Throughout these past 16 years, our mission has been to give people power, power to the people, to unlock life's next chapter and to move. So even now, the real estate industry continues to be archaic, primarily off-line and fragmented.

我想強調的是，我們正在解決的問題對我們來說並不新鮮。在過去的 16 年裡，我們的使命一直是賦予人們權力，賦予人民權力，開啟生命的新篇章並繼續前進。因此，即使是現在，房地產行業仍然陳舊，主要是離線且分散的。

Throughout Zillow's history, beginning with Zestimate, Zillow has turned on the lights with data and information and empowered customers in a way that began to transform the industry. But it wasn't happening fast enough. So 3 years ago, we shifted strategic focus from a purely ad-based business model to one that expanded our focus down-funnel to the transaction itself. This marked our transition from Zillow 1.0 to 2.0.

縱觀 Zillow 的歷史，從 Zestimate 開始，Zillow 用數據和資訊點亮了燈光，並以開始改變行業的方式為客戶提供支援。但它發生得不夠快。因此，三年前，我們將策略重點從純粹基於廣告的商業模式轉移到將我們的重點向下漏斗擴展到交易本身的模式。這標誌著我們從 Zillow 1.0 到 2.0 的過渡。

Over the past 3 years, we have focused on helping customers navigate the real estate transaction in an easier, simpler way with our suite of tech-enabled solutions and an ever-improving partner network. We all know that moving is complicated, time-consuming and full of loops and hoops to jump through in a disjointed and opaque process. Anyone who has been through a move knows how challenging it can be to research, shop, select, finance, appraise, close and have to connect all these separate vendors and spend time taking down information and managing the process yourself. Sometimes you do all of this and still end up losing out on your dream home, especially in this competitive market.

在過去的三年裡，我們致力於透過我們的技術解決方案套件和不斷完善的合作夥伴網絡，幫助客戶以更輕鬆、更簡單的方式進行房地產交易。我們都知道，搬家是複雜、耗時的，而且是一個脫節且不透明的過程，充滿了循環和障礙。任何經歷過搬家的人都知道，研究、購買、選擇、融資、評估、關閉是多麼具有挑戰性，而且必須連接所有這些單獨的供應商，並花時間記錄資訊並親自管理流程。有時，您做了所有這些，但最終仍然會失去您的夢想之家，尤其是在這個競爭激烈的市場中。

On top of the time and energy we expended on this taxing process, all of these pieces add up to between $26,000 and $40,000 of extra expense on an average priced home. Moving is exhausting and expensive. And to us, it's painfully clear that customers deserve and demand more control.

除了我們在這個徵稅過程中花費的時間和精力之外，所有這些費用加起來對於平均價格的房屋來說是 26,000 到 40,000 美元的額外費用。搬家既費力又昂貴。對我們來說，很明顯客戶應該並要求更多的控制權。

Our opportunity is to create the housing super app, an integrated digital experience in which Zillow connects all of the fragmented pieces of the moving process and brings them together on one transaction platform, empowering customers with data, a suite of Zillow-owned solutions at their fingertips and a network of best-in-class partners to make it easier for them to move, start to finish. Our customers will be able to do everything within the Zillow ecosystem. That's the dream we're building towards.

我們的機會是創建住房超級應用程序，這是一種整合的數位體驗，Zillow 將移動過程中的所有碎片連接起來，並將它們匯集到一個交易平台上，為客戶提供數據，這是Zillow 擁有的一套解決方案。指尖和一流的合作夥伴網路使他們能夠更輕鬆地從開始到完成。我們的客戶將能夠在 Zillow 生態系統中做所有事情。這就是我們正在努力實現的夢想。

Accompanying this dream is a significant addressable market. Housing-related transaction fees were roughly a $300 billion industry in 2021. This includes residential real estate, rentals, mortgage, title and escrow. It does not include more speculative future potential in adjacent services, like renovations, home insurance, moving services and appraisals. The TAM is large and currently, we are a very small part of it despite our outsized audience and trusted brand. We are well positioned to capitalize though, but doing so requires relentless innovation in both product and business model.

伴隨這個夢想的是一個重要的潛在市場。 2021 年，與住房相關的交易費用約為 3000 億美元。這包括住宅房地產、租金、抵押貸款、產權和託管。它不包括鄰近服務的更多投機性未來潛力，例如裝修、家庭保險、搬家服務和評估。 TAM 規模很大，但目前，儘管我們擁有龐大的受眾和值得信賴的品牌，但我們只是其中很小的一部分。我們已經做好了充分利用資本的準備，但這樣做需要在產品和商業模式上不斷創新。

So why do I feel so good about this? Well, we have an unbelievably solid foundation from which to innovate and a great track record of growth in our core business. No company in our category has a stronger claim to hearts and minds at the top of the funnel, with nearly 200 million unique users flocking to our sites and apps every month. The strength of our brand is unmatched with Zillow searched more on Google than the term for real estate.

那麼為什麼我對此感覺如此好呢？嗯，我們擁有令人難以置信的堅實創新基礎，並且在核心業務方面擁有良好的成長記錄。在我們的類別中，沒有任何一家公司比我們更能佔據通路頂端的人心，每月有近 2 億的獨立用戶湧入我們的網站和應用程式。我們品牌的實力是無與倫比的，Zillow 在 Google 上的搜尋次數比房地產一詞還要多。

Similarly, no other company has our track record of technology innovation in the housing industry. Over the past 15-plus years, we have steadily grown the size and quality of our team of engineers, designers, product managers, data scientists and analysts and many more that make up a formidable investment in R&D, reflecting our belief in the opportunity ahead. In 2021, we 4x-ed our software releases into production versus our releases in 2015, and we are investing in our ability to further accelerate our pace of innovation for customers and for partners.

同樣，沒有其他公司擁有我們在住宅行業技術創新方面的記錄。在過去15 年多的時間裡，我們的工程師、設計師、產品經理、資料科學家和分析師等團隊的規模和品質穩步提高，在研發方面投入了巨大的資金，這反映了我們對未來機會的信念。與 2015 年的版本相比，2021 年我們投入生產的軟體版本增加了 4 倍，我們正在投資我們的能力，以進一步加快我們為客戶和合作夥伴創新的步伐。

We have also done well using acquisition as an accelerant. Late last year, we closed our purchase of ShowingTime, the industry's leading for-sale home touring reservation system. ShowingTime receives tens of millions of touring requests a year, and last year, it facilitated 63 million home tours. We acquired ShowingTime because we recognize how critically important tours are to the shopping experience.

我們利用收購作為促進劑也做得很好。去年年底，我們完成了對 ShowingTime 的收購，ShowingTime 是業界領先的待售房屋旅遊預訂系統。 ShowingTime 每年收到數千萬次巡演請求，去年，它促成了 6,300 萬次家庭巡演。我們收購了 ShowingTime，因為我們認識到旅遊對於購物體驗的重要性。

People come to Zillow to look at homes, and the next logical step in the moving process is to tour them. Tours are where much of the magic happens. It's the point-of-sale moment for agents, and it's a powerful mechanism for identifying high-intent movers and helping them get to the next step of their moving journey. Our opportunity is to transform a manual, phone call-based reservation system into a digital one, with software making touring more integrated and simpler for all agents and customers in the industry. We believe in and are investing in software that underpins an increasingly digital industry as a whole, with the firm belief that a rising tide lifts all boats, including our own.

人們來到 Zillow 是為了看房，搬家過程中的下一個合乎邏輯的步驟就是參觀它們。遊覽是很多神奇事情發生的地方。這是代理商的銷售點時刻，也是識別高意願搬家者並幫助他們進入搬家旅程下一步的強大機制。我們的機會是將基於電話的手動預訂系統轉變為數位系統，並使用軟體使旅遊對於業內所有代理商和客戶來說更加整合和簡單。我們相信並正在投資軟體來支撐整個日益數位化的行業，並堅信水漲船高，包括我們自己的船。

ShowingTime's platform will help convert more shoppers into transactors. In fact, our internal data shows us that the transaction conversion rate of a customer who requests a tour on Zillow is 3x higher than any other connection point our customers have with our partner agents.

ShowingTime 的平台將幫助更多的購物者轉變為交易者。事實上，我們的內部數據顯示，在 Zillow 上請求參觀的客戶的交易轉換率比我們的客戶與我們的合作夥伴代理的任何其他連接點高出 3 倍。

So buyers who request a tour with a Premier Agent partner are more likely to buy a home with that partner. We assume this conversion boost from a tour is similar for the industry as a whole, much of which uses ShowingTime, as I said. Yet, we see so much opportunity to increase both the quality and quantity of tours that are facilitated throughout the industry. As a proxy, today, we are fulfilling less than 1/3 of tours requested on Zillow. The combination of ShowingTime and new product releases should drive better touring experiences and higher conversion rates across the industry and for Zillow moving forward.

因此，要求與高級代理商合作夥伴一起參觀的買家更有可能透過該合作夥伴購買房屋。我們假設巡迴帶來的轉換率提升對於整個產業來說是相似的，正如我所說，其中大部分都使用 ShowingTime。然而，我們看到了許多提高整個行業促進的旅遊品質和數量的機會。作為代理，今天我們只完成了 Zillow 上不到 1/3 的旅行請求。 ShowingTime 和新產品發布的結合應該會推動整個行業更好的巡迴體驗和更高的轉換率，並推動 Zillow 向前發展。

We have big ambitions across our business, which I'll take you through next. But before I do so, I want to highlight how strong our business is today. We reported positive fourth quarter results, which Allen will speak more about. In our IMT segment, from 2018 to 2021, revenue increased 57%, and adjusted EBITDA increased from $240 million to $853 million, about 3.5x growth. Our strong gross profit generation in IMT, coupled with our healthy cash position of $3.1 billion, gives us the flexibility to invest in R&D and innovation, accelerate business development and drive growth moving forward.

我們對整個業務抱有遠大的抱負，接下來我將向您介紹這項抱負。但在此之前，我想先強調一下我們今天的業務有多強大。我們報告了積極的第四季度業績，艾倫將對此進行更多討論。在我們的IMT領域，從2018年到2021年，營收成長了57%，調整後的EBITDA從2.4億美元成長到8.53億美元，成長約3.5倍。我們在 IMT 領域產生的強勁毛利，加上 31 億美元的健康現金狀況，使我們能夠靈活地投資於研發和創新、加速業務發展並推動成長。

Since our iBuying wind-down announcement, a consistent question we've gotten asked has been, where does growth come from now? Brad mentioned that we posted an updated investor deck on our website, which I encourage you to peruse when you have time. But while I have your attention, I want to outline where I expect growth to come from moving forward.

自從我們宣布關閉 iBuying 以來，我們不斷被問到的一個問題是，現在的成長來自哪裡？布拉德提到，我們在網站上發布了更新的投資者資料，我鼓勵您有時間時仔細閱讀。不過，雖然我吸引了你們的注意，但我想概述我預計未來的成長來自哪裡。

First, let's ground ourselves in the U.S. housing market. In 2021, 6.1 million existing homes exchanged hands in the country. For every home exchanged, there are 2 customer transactions: 1 on the buy side and 1 on the sell side, which results in 12.2 million customer transaction TAM. Buy-side shopping, much like the house tour, is where consumers are super engaged and energetic. Moving is about life's next chapter, and the next home is the aspiration. Helping movers dream and shop is our historical power alley and the wellspring of our massive audience and engagement. Of the 6.1 million buy-side customer transactions that occurred last year, we estimate that 4.1 million of those actual buyers were on our sites and apps, which accounts for 2/3 of all buyers in the U.S.

首先，讓我們立足於美國房地產市場。 2021年，該國已有610萬套現房易手。每交換一間房屋，就會有 2 筆客戶交易：1 筆買方交易，1 筆賣方交易，進而產生 1,220 萬筆客戶交易 TAM。買方購物就像看房子一樣，是消費者高度參與和精力充沛的地方。搬家是人生的下一個篇章，下一個家是憧憬。幫助搬家工人實現夢想和購物是我們歷史悠久的力量之路，也是我們大量觀眾和參與的來源。在去年發生的 610 萬筆買方客戶交易中，我們估計其中 410 萬實際買家在我們的網站和應用程式上，占美國所有買家的 2/3。

This seems remarkable but shouldn't surprise us, given how it tracks the unique user and app tracking data we all look at across the category. What may surprise you all is that roughly 1.4 million actual homebuyers asked to connect with a Zillow Premier Agent last year. Wow. That means about 1/4 of all buyers in the U.S. last year clicked a button to connect to a Zillow Premier Agent. This tells us that we are the preeminent place for high-intent movers to find their next home.

這看起來很了不起，但考慮到它如何追蹤我們在整個類別中查看的獨特用戶和應用程式追蹤數據，我們不應感到驚訝。令大家驚訝的是，去年大約有 140 萬實際購屋者要求與 Zillow Premier Agent 聯繫。哇。這意味著去年大約 1/4 的美國買家點擊了按鈕連接到 Zillow Premier Agent。這告訴我們，我們是高意願搬家者尋找下一個家的絕佳場所。

Of those 1.4 million high-intent movers, we estimate that about 360,000 customers ended up transacting with us. That number is primarily buyers, but we do have some customers today who connect with a Premier Agent and end up selling their existing home with our partner as well.

在這 140 萬高意願搬家者中，我們估計約有 36 萬名客戶最終與我們進行了交易。這個數字主要是買家，但今天我們確實有一些客戶與高級經紀人聯繫，最終也與我們的合作夥伴一起出售他們現有的房屋。

Overall, we estimate that our buy-side market share today is roughly 5%, and our overall customer transaction share is roughly 3%. We worked hard over 15-plus years to achieve this 3% transaction penetration. We are proud of what we've accomplished today. But oh my, do I see an opportunity to increase our share of customer transactions from 3% to 6% in 2025, and meaningfully higher than that longer term by vastly improving our customer experience and funnel.

總體而言，我們估計目前買方市場佔有率約為 5%，整體客戶交易份額約為 3%。我們經過 15 年多的努力才實現了 3% 的交易滲透率。我們為今天所取得的成就感到自豪。但是，天哪，我是否看到了到 2025 年將我們的客戶交易份額從 3% 增加到 6% 的機會，並且透過大幅改善我們的客戶體驗和漏斗，顯著高於長期目標。

Let's take each of these critical numbers and break down what we are doing to improve the fidelity of our funnel and customer experience from beginning to end. First, we are going to grow engagement with the roughly 4.1 million homebuyers who use our product. We will do this by leveraging our tech and product innovation and investment to deliver personalized, immersive content and curated experience like -- experiences like 3D tours integrated with interactive floor plans and intuitive tools to understand affordability early in the customer journey. At the same time, we will continue to improve our core experience in Zestimate, search and find and other expanded services.

讓我們逐一分析這些關鍵數字，並從頭到尾分解我們為提高通路保真度和客戶體驗所做的工作。首先，我們將加強與使用我們產品的約 410 萬購屋者的互動。為此，我們將利用我們的技術和產品創新和投資來提供個人化、身臨其境的內容和精心策劃的體驗，例如3D 旅遊體驗，與互動式平面圖和直覺工具相結合，以便在客戶旅程的早期了解可承受性。同時，我們將持續完善Zestimate、搜尋尋找等拓展服務的核心體驗。

Next, we plan to grow both the roughly 1.4 million actual homebuyers who raised their hands to connect with us last year and the roughly 360,000 home buyers and sellers who transacted with us. We expect to do this in 3 ways: One, we'll be leveling up that critical touring experience with ShowingTime to make it easier for movers to tour homes and connect with our partners. Two will be an increased focus on preparing these customers to be transaction-ready through intuitive and digitized financing offerings.

接下來，我們計劃增加去年舉手與我們聯繫的約 140 萬實際購房者以及與我們進行交易的約 36 萬購房者和賣家。我們希望透過 3 種方式做到這一點：第一，我們將透過 ShowingTime 提升關鍵的巡視體驗，讓搬家工人能夠更輕鬆地參觀房屋並與我們的合作夥伴聯繫。二是更重視透過直覺和數位化的融資產品讓這些客戶做好交易準備。

And three, we will develop seller solutions by leveraging learnings from our iBuying experience to stand up new, more asset-light services. As we take all of the energy potential from buyers on Zillow and open up broader seller solutions and financing opportunities, we expect to increase the number of people who raise their hand to transact with Zillow and open up access to the 6.1 million sell-side customer transactions that mirror the 6.1 million buy-side transactions that we've been focused on to date.

第三，我們將利用 iBuying 經驗中的經驗來開發賣家解決方案，以推出新的、更輕資產的服務。隨著我們充分利用 Zillow 買家的所有潛力，並開闢更廣泛的賣家解決方案和融資機會，我們預計會增加與 Zillow 進行交易的人數，並為 610 萬賣方客戶提供接觸機會這些交易反映了我們迄今為止關注的610 萬筆買方交易。

We will couple these product improvements with an enhanced partner agent network and how we interact with, support and improve the experience for our partners as well as our mutual customers. Here, we will continue to focus on working with high-performing agents who have demonstrated stellar customer service, a proven ability to close and an appetite to grow with us as partners as we expand.

我們將把這些產品改進與增強的合作夥伴代理網路以及我們如何與合作夥伴以及共同客戶互動、支援和改善體驗結合起來。在這裡，我們將繼續專注於與表現出色的代理商合作，他們表現出一流的客戶服務、久經考驗的成交能力以及隨著我們的擴張而願意作為合作夥伴與我們一起成長的意願。

One of the great benefits of these product and service improvements is they have an eye towards integration, which is a win for the customer, a win for our partners and a win for Zillow, because it will drive more transactions and more revenue per transaction. One prominent way to do this will be integrating Zillow Home Loans into the shopping experience to better serve our customers. Today, nearly 90% of all homebuyers finance for their mortgage, and many of them want to get prequalified before finding an agent.

這些產品和服務改進的一大好處是他們著眼於集成，這對客戶、我們的合作夥伴和 Zillow 來說都是雙贏，因為它將帶來更多交易和每筆交易的更多收入。實現這一目標的一個重要方法是將 Zillow Home Loans 整合到購物體驗中，以便更好地為我們的客戶服務。如今，近 90% 的購屋者都為抵押貸款融資，其中許多人希望在尋找代理商之前獲得資格預審。

By offering intuitive and reliable pre-approval and prequalification services earlier in a shopper's journey, we hope to keep customers engaged in our funnel and improve their overall experience. Getting prequalified with financing is a strong signal of a mover's serious intent to buy a home, and referring a customer that already has financing is more valuable and efficient for our Premier Agent partners as well. We see expanded seller services and closing services as key to the integration we expect to provide and are hard at work cooking up what's next based on our learnings from having now bought and sold thousands of homes.

透過在購物者旅程的早期提供直覺、可靠的預審批和資格預審服務，我們希望讓客戶參與我們的管道並改善他們的整體體驗。獲得融資資格預審是搬家者購買房屋的強烈意願的強烈信號，並且推薦已經獲得融資的客戶對於我們的高級代理合作夥伴來說也更有價值和更有效率。我們認為擴大賣家服務和成交服務是我們期望提供的整合的關鍵，並且根據我們現在購買和出售數千套房屋的經驗教訓，正在努力製定下一步計劃。

When we put all of these ingredients into the pot, we see an opportunity to meaningfully increase the number of customers who raise their hands to work with us and the number of customers who ultimately transact with us. We know that the size of the prize is large when we become the central integrator, connecting pieces of the fragmented process and turning dreamers into transactors within the Zillow housing super app ecosystem. We expect all of these efforts to translate into $5 billion in annual revenue by the end of 2025, with strong gross profits that will allow us to invest in the opportunities we'll have in front of us while also translating into healthy 45% EBITDA margins for our shareholders.

當我們將所有這些成分放入鍋中時，我們看到了一個機會，可以有意義地增加舉手與我們合作的客戶數量以及最終與我們進行交易的客戶數量。我們知道，當我們成為中央整合商、連接零散流程的各個部分並將夢想家變成 Zillow 住房超級應用生態系統中的交易者時，獎勵的規模是巨大的。我們預計所有這些努力到 2025 年底將轉化為 50 億美元的年收入，強勁的毛利將使我們能夠投資於我們面前的機會，同時也轉化為 45% 的健康 EBITDA 利潤率為了我們的股東。

Before I hand it over to Allen, I want to acknowledge that the past few months have been challenging for us all, Zillow employees and investors alike. Innovation is a bumpy road. I'm really proud of our history of innovation, and I have 100% confidence in our ability to accelerate innovation in the months and years ahead.

在將其交給 Allen 之前，我想承認過去幾個月對我們所有人（Zillow 員工和投資者）來說都是充滿挑戰的。創新之路是坎坷的。我對我們的創新歷史感到非常自豪，我對我們在未來幾個月乃至數年加速創新的能力充滿信心。

Our company was built on big swings, and we're going to continue taking them. We take big swings on products, on technologies, on business models and even on the future of how our employees work. Big swings are as core to Zillow as is Zestimate, and they are part of what makes our company so special.

我們的公司是建立在巨大的波動之上的，我們將繼續經歷這些波動。我們在產品、技術、商業模式，甚至員工未來的工作方式都做出了重大調整。大波動與 Zestimate 一樣是 Zillow 的核心，也是我們公司如此特別的一部分。

Finally, a really wild and wonderful characteristic of being Zillow is that we throw a much longer shadow than we are tall. In the last year, we have experienced the upside and the downside of capturing the hearts and minds of so many. People care about our brand and their homes deeply. There is something particularly gratifying and motivating, knowing that we are solving a problem that is so near and dear to people, so meaningful. And because of that, everyone is watching. Within all of that meaningfulness is a massive business opportunity to help people move using our housing super app to help them unlock life's next chapter and to help our partners grow their businesses.

最後，Zillow 的一個非常狂野而美妙的特徵是，我們投下的影子比我們的身高還要長。去年，我們經歷了贏得如此多人心的好處和壞處。人們非常關心我們的品牌和他們的家。當我們知道我們正在解決一個與人們息息相關、意義重大的問題時，有一種特別令人欣慰和激勵的感覺。正因為如此，每個人都在關注。所有這些意義背後都有一個巨大的商機，可以幫助人們使用我們的住房超級應用程式搬家，幫助他們開啟生活的新篇章，並幫助我們的合作夥伴發展他們的業務。

As I said earlier, our foundation and positioning are strong, and we are so much smarter, more experienced and more battle-hardened now than we were a year ago. As many of you know, I'm the largest individual shareholder and co-founder of Zillow in addition to being CEO. For the past 16 years, I thought about Zillow every day. I care about the long-term meaning of the Zillow brand and the value of our company in a way that couldn't be more personal. And I'm continuously awed by the sheer size of the opportunity and the relative immaturity of technologies advanced into residential real estate, such a large, incredibly important and endlessly entertaining industry.

正如我剛才所說，我們的基礎和定位非常牢固，而且比一年前更聰明、更有經驗、更身經百戰。正如你們許多人所知，除了執行長之外，我還是 Zillow 最大的個人股東和共同創辦人。在過去的 16 年裡，我每天都在想著 Zillow。我以一種非常個人化的方式關心 Zillow 品牌的長期意義和我們公司的價值。我一直對住宅房地產這個龐大、​​極其重要且娛樂性無窮的行業所蘊含的巨大機會和相對不成熟的技術感到驚訝。

Thank you for your continued support. I enjoy being on the journey with you. I'll now pass the line over to Allen.

感謝您一如既往的支持。我很享受和你一起旅行。我現在將把電話轉給艾倫。

Thank you, Rich, and hello, everyone. I'm going to take a brief moment to provide an update on the progress of winding down our iBuying operations. I'll then discuss our quarterly results and Q1 outlook and will conclude with comments on our newly announced 2025 targets.

謝謝你，里奇，大家好。我將花一點時間提供有關結束 iBuying 業務的最新進展。然後，我將討論我們的季度業績和第一季前景，最後將對我們新宣布的 2025 年目標發表評論。

As previously discussed, we expected a wide range of potential results for the Home segment this quarter, as we work to free up operational and renovation capacity and pursue retail strategies in order to protect the value of our assets and optimize the speed of the wind-down, all while respectively managing our people. This quarter, we reported Home segment revenue of $3.3 billion, well exceeding our updated outlook range of $2.3 billion to $2.9 billion provided in early December. The revenue outperformance benefited from a combination of better renovation capacity that allowed us to accelerate listings in Q4 as well as better retail velocity.

如同前面所討論的，我們預計本季家居領域將出現廣泛的潛在業績，因為我們致力於釋放營運和改造能力並推行零售策略，以保護我們的資產價值並優化風力發電的速度。下來，同時分別管理我們的人員。本季度，我們報告家庭部門收入為 33 億美元，遠遠超出我們 12 月初提供的 23 億美元至 29 億美元的最新展望範圍。收入的優異表現得益於更好的裝修能力以及更好的零售速度，這使我們能夠在第四季度加快上市速度。

With the better-than-expected resale and better prices, we had $93 million of write-down in the quarter compared to previously expected additional losses of $240 million to $265 million in Q4. This brings our total write-down to $405 million for Q3 and Q4, an improvement of $160 million compared to the midpoint of our initial estimated range.

憑藉好於預期的轉售和更好的價格，我們本季的減記額為 9,300 萬美元，而此前預計第四季度的額外虧損為 2.4 億至 2.65 億美元。這使得我們第三季和第四季的總減記達到 4.05 億美元，比我們最初估計範圍的中位數增加了 1.6 億美元。

The better-than-expected write-down resulted in Q4 EBITDA loss of $206 million, $141 million better than our outlook range for a loss of $347 million at the midpoint. We continue to make good progress on winding down this business and have now sold or entered into agreements to sell or dispose more than 85% of the homes in the Home segment that we expected to resell during the entire wind-down process.

優於預期的減記導致第四季 EBITDA 損失 2.06 億美元，比我們的預期範圍中位數損失 3.47 億美元高出 1.41 億美元。我們在結束這項業務方面繼續取得良好進展，現已出售或簽訂協議，出售或處置家居領域超過 85% 的房屋，我們預計在整個結束過程中將轉售這些房屋。

In January, we finished acquiring all the homes that we plan to buy. We continue to expect to sell most of our remaining homes inventory by the end of Q2 2022, with a small number of homes remaining thereafter. We have updated our expected iBuying wind-down restructuring costs to $175 million to $205 million in aggregate compared to the $175 million to $230 million we previously expected. $71 million was recognized in Q4 and the remainder we expect to be realized in 2022.

一月份，我們完成了所有計劃購買的房屋的收購。我們仍預計在 2022 年第二季末之前出售大部分剩餘房屋庫存，此後剩餘少量房屋。我們將 iBuying 逐步削減重組成本的預期調整為 1.75 億美元至 2.05 億美元，而我們先前的預期為 1.75 億美元至 2.3 億美元。第四季確認了 7,100 萬美元，我們預計其餘部分將在 2022 年實現。

We expect the approximately $800 million of cash equity that was in the inventory at end of Q3 will more than cover the realized losses on inventory, operating cost and the cash portion of restructuring cost of the wind-down. As a result, we now expect the net effect of the wind-down of iBuying operations to be cash flow positive in aggregate, slightly better than our prior outlook of at least cash flow neutral at the end of Q3. I would like to sincerely thank our dedicated employees who have been executing the wind-down process.

我們預計，第三季末庫存中約 8 億美元的現金權益將超過已實現的庫存損失、營運成本和停業重組成本的現金部分。因此，我們現在預計 iBuying 業務結束的淨效應總體上將產生正現金流，略好於我們先前對第三季末至少現金流為中性的預期。我衷心感謝一直在執行結束流程的敬業員工。

Moving to the core business results. We'll start with IMT revenue, which was $483 million, growing 14% year-over-year and 51% on a 2-year stack basis, which accelerated compared to the 43% 2-year growth in Q3. Our IMT segment revenue came in slightly above the $481 million midpoint of our guidance, driven primarily by Premier Agent revenue at the low end of our outlook range and better-than-expected results in our rentals business.

轉向核心業務成果。我們先從 IMT 營收開始，營收為 4.83 億美元，年成長 14%，以 2 年堆疊計算成長 51%，與第三季 43% 的 2 年成長相比有所加速。我們的 IMT 部門收入略高於我們指引的 4.81 億美元中點，這主要是由我們展望範圍下限的高級代理收入以及我們的租賃業務好於預期的業績推動的。

PA revenue grew 13% year-over-year, which outperformed industry growth of 4% and posted accelerating 2-year stack growth of 52% compared to 49% 2-year growth in Q3. The Omicron variant and severe cold weather resulted in lower new for-sale listings in late Q4, which had a slight impact on our results but remain within our expected seasonal range and outlook.

PA 營收年增 13%，跑贏產業 4% 的成長，並實現 52% 的兩年堆疊加速成長，而第三季的兩年成長率為 49%。 Omicron 變體和嚴寒天氣導致第四季度末新待售房源數量減少，這對我們的業績產生了輕微影響，但仍處於我們預期的季節性範圍和前景之內。

Rentals revenue was flat year-over-year but better than we anticipated despite continued pressures from high occupancy rates, which dampens demand for rentals advertising. We saw stronger-than-expected customer interest in applications and success in renters leasing properties. Rentals also faced a difficult second half comp due to strong 2020 results following the initial impact from COVID-related volatility a year ago.

儘管高入住率持續帶來壓力，抑制了租賃廣告的需求，但租賃收入比去年同期持平，但好於我們的預期。我們看到客戶對應用程式的興趣強於預期，並且租戶租賃房產取得了成功。由於一年前新冠肺炎相關波動的初步影響，2020 年業績強勁，下半年租金也面臨困難。

IMT segment EBITDA and margin were $220 million and 46% for Q4, respectively, exceeding our outlook of $200 million and 42% at the midpoint. The outperformance was driven by increased operating efficiency as well as lower-than-anticipated advertising and marketing spend. For 2021, IMT segment adjusted EBITDA was $853 million or 45% of IMT segment revenue, representing more than 2,100 basis points of margin expansion over 2019.

第四季 IMT 部門 EBITDA 和利潤率分別為 2.2 億美元和 46%，超出了我們預期的 2 億美元和 42% 的中位數。業績優異的原因是營運效率提高以及廣告和行銷支出低於預期。 2021 年，IMT 部門調整後 EBITDA 為 8.53 億美元，佔 IMT 部門營收的 45%，比 2019 年利潤率擴張超過 2,100 個基點。

We have continuously driven operating efficiencies by prioritizing and streamlining internal processes and recognizing the efficiency of marketing. I would also like to call out that our high gross margins enabled us to invest in innovating on behalf of our customers, partners and our platform customers to drive future growth while delivering industry-leading EBITDA within online real estate.

我們透過優先考慮和簡化內部流程並認識到行銷效率，不斷提高營運效率。我還想指出，我們的高毛利率使我們能夠代表我們的客戶、合作夥伴和平台客戶進行創新投資，以推動未來成長，同時在線上房地產領域提供業界領先的 EBITDA。

Mortgages segment revenue of $51 million came in at the high end of our Q4 outlook range as refinancing loan originations did not slow as much as expected, while gain on sale margins compressed within our expectations. Segment adjusted EBITDA was a loss of $14 million, near the midpoint of our outlook, as we expected lower profitability due to lower purchase volume from unwinding our iBuying operations.

抵押貸款部門收入為 5,100 萬美元，處於我們第四季度展望範圍的高端，因為再融資貸款發放速度並未像預期那樣放緩，而銷售利潤率收益則在我們的預期範圍內壓縮。部門調整後的 EBITDA 虧損 1400 萬美元，接近我們預期的中點，因為我們預計由於取消 iBuying 業務而導致採購量下降，盈利能力會下降。

I would like to reiterate that Zillow's financial position remains strong and flexible. We ended the quarter with $3.1 billion in cash and investments, slightly less than $3.2 billion at the end of Q3 after the impact of our $302 million in share repurchases in December, largely offset by earnings from our IMT segment. The wind-down leaves us in a strong position to invest in more scalable customer solutions that are less capital-intensive as we execute on our vision and make strategic long-term investments. Our expectation is that we will continue to be a positive earnings and positive cash flow company with our revised product strategy.

我想重申，Zillow 的財務狀況仍然強勁且靈活。本季結束時，我們的現金和投資為31 億美元，略低於第三季末的32 億美元，因為我們在12 月進行了3.02 億美元的股票回購，這在很大程度上被我們的IMT 部門的收益所抵銷。隨著我們執行我們的願景並進行策略性長期投資，此縮減使我們能夠投資於更具可擴展性的客戶解決方案，這些解決方案的資本密集程度較低。我們的期望是，透過修訂產品策略，我們將繼續成為一家正獲利和正現金流的公司。

Turning to our outlook. For the first quarter, in our IMT segment, we expect 9% year-over-year revenue growth in Q1 at the midpoint, within an outlook range of 7% to 11% and 47% 2-year growth. Within the IMT segment, we expect Premier Agent revenue to be between $358 million to $368 million, up 9% year-over-year and up 50% over Q1 2020 at the midpoint of our outlook.

轉向我們的展望。對於第一季度，在我們的 IMT 領域，我們預計第一季營收將年增 9%，中點，展望範圍為 7% 至 11%，兩年成長為 47%。在 IMT 領域，我們預計 Premier Agent 營收將在 3.58 億美元至 3.68 億美元之間，年增 9%，比我們預測的 2020 年第一季中位數成長 50%。

Our wider-than-normal IMT and PA Q1 outlook revenue ranges are informed by the following: We saw slower housing activity late in Q4 and have also seen a slow start to new for-sale inventory listings in Q1. Despite that, our customer and agent activity levels indicate strong customer demand, which is consistent with The Conference Board's December consumer survey indicating plans to buy a home during the next 6 months were at record levels and recovered sharply from lower levels at the end of September.

我們比正常情況更寬的第一季 IMT 和 PA 前景收入範圍是由以下因素決定的：我們看到第四季末的房地產活動放緩，並且第一季新的待售庫存清單開始緩慢。儘管如此，我們的客戶和代理商活動水平表明客戶需求強勁，這與世界大型企業聯合會12 月份的消費者調查結果一致，該調查表明未來6 個月內的購房計劃處於創紀錄水平，並從9 月底的較低水準大幅恢復。

In other IMT, we continue to expect headwinds in rentals from the continued low industry vacancy rates and in new construction because of builders' low inventory levels. We expect Q1 IMT EBITDA margin to be 41%, at the midpoint of our outlook. This margin reflects the investment level we believe is necessary to drive innovation and execution towards our 2025 targets.

在其他 IMT 領域，我們繼續預期行業空置率持續走低將導致租金面臨阻力，而建築商庫存水準較低也會導致新建築面臨阻力。我們預計第一季 IMT EBITDA 利潤率為 41%，處於我們預期的中點。這一利潤率反映了我們認為推動創新和執行實現 2025 年目標所需的投資水準。

We expect our Mortgages segment revenue to be between $44 million to $49 million in Q1, which is down sequentially from Q4. Our Q1 outlook reflects slower industry refinance activity from the recent move in interest rates, consistent gain on sale spreads and slower growth in purchase originations impacted by the wind-down of our iBuying operations.

我們預計第一季抵押貸款部門的營收將在 4,400 萬美元至 4,900 萬美元之間，比第四季連續下降。我們對第一季的展望反映了近期利率變動導致的產業再融資活動放緩、銷售利差持續上漲以及受 iBuying 業務縮減影響的購買來源成長放緩。

As a result of lower sequential revenue and continued investments to grow mortgage originations, we expect the Mortgages segment EBITDA to be between a loss of $17 million and a loss of $12 million. As we focus on preparing customers to be transaction-ready through intuitive and digitized mortgage offerings, we are working to integrate mortgages across our platform with a focus on purchase originations. We expect these efforts to make progress over the course of this year. In Q1, we expect our Home segment revenue to be $2.75 billion and adjusted EBITDA to be a loss of $37.5 million at the midpoint of our outlook range.

由於連續收入下降以及為增加抵押貸款發放而持續投資，我們預計抵押貸款部門 EBITDA 將虧損 1,700 萬美元至 1,200 萬美元。當我們專注於透過直覺和數位化的抵押貸款產品讓客戶為交易做好準備時，我們正在努力將抵押貸款整合到我們的平台上，並專注於購買來源。我們預計這些努力將在今年取得進展。在第一季度，我們預計家庭部門營收為 27.5 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 為虧損 3,750 萬美元，處於我們展望範圍的中點。

Given the wind-down of our iBuying operations and the path forward we see, we think it is prudent to initiate new financial targets for year-end 2025. Before doing so, we want to remind you of where we stand on our February 2019 3- to 5-year targets. We have just completed the third year of the original targets and are expecting to soon be run rating the $2 billion IMT segment revenue targets. And we are already well above our original IMT segment EBITDA targets of $600 million or 30% margin. As we wind down iBuying operations, the original Home segment and related Zillow Home Loans attached related targets are no longer relevant.

鑑於我們 iBuying 業務的逐步結束以及我們所看到的未來​​道路，我們認為為 2025 年底啟動新的財務目標是謹慎的做法。在此之前，我們想提醒您我們在 2019 年 2 月的立場 3 - 5年目標。我們剛完成了原定目標的第三年，預計很快就會實現 20 億美元 IMT 部門收入目標。我們已經遠高於最初的 IMT 部門 EBITDA 目標 6 億美元或 30% 的利潤率。隨著我們逐步結束 iBuying 業務，原來的 Home 細分市場和相關的 Zillow Home Loans 附加相關目標不再相關。

With that, I'll take a moment to walk through the 2025 financial model that we've included in the investor deck published on the IR website today. Our long-term growth model shows how we plan to deliver Zillow's new 2025 financial targets. The model is quite simple: industry customer transactions times transaction share times average revenue per customer transaction for our PA, ZHL and ZCS services, added to other services and marketplaces revenue, that include rentals, new construction, mortgage marketplace and real estate industry services.

接下來，我將花點時間介紹我們今天在 IR 網站上發布的投資者資料中包含的 2025 年財務模型。我們的長期成長模型展示了我們計劃如何實現 Zillow 的新 2025 年財務目標。模型非常簡單：行業客戶交易乘以交易份額乘以我們的PA、ZHL 和ZCS 服務的每筆客戶交易平均收入，加上其他服務和市場收入，包括租賃、新建、抵押貸款市場和房地產行業服務。

It's important to note that we are assuming no growth in overall existing home sales from 2021 levels and only 3% annual home price appreciation for the industry. This is not a macro call we are making on our outlook. It is merely the approach we took to look at how we can drive strong secular growth. Simply put, we expect to grow our share of customer transactions from 3% to 6%, which should drive over 700,000 customer transactions annually. We have a good understanding of our customers' key pain points and are focused on executing better connections, touring, mortgage approvals and expanding seller services.

值得注意的是，我們假設現房整體銷售量較 2021 年水準不會成長，且該產業的年度房價僅上漲 3%。這不是我們對前景做出的宏觀預測。這只是我們研究如何推動強勁的長期成長所採取的方法。簡而言之，我們預計客戶交易份額從 3% 增加到 6%，每年將帶動超過 70 萬筆客戶交易。我們非常了解客戶的關鍵痛點，並專注於執行更好的聯繫、巡迴、抵押貸款審批和擴大賣家服務。

By better meeting their needs, we expect our customers to remain engaged deeper into our funnel, which should double our market share and also drive higher revenue per transaction via the expanded services. This model implies 24% revenue CAGR, yielding our 2025 targets of $5 billion in annual revenue and $2.25 billion in EBITDA, which equates to 45% EBITDA margin. We expect margins to scale with our revenue while we continue to invest prudently where we see opportunities to drive growth.

透過更好地滿足他們的需求，我們希望客戶能夠更深入地參與我們的管道，這將使我們的市場份額翻一番，並透過擴展的服務提高每筆交易的收入。該模型意味著 24% 的收入複合年增長率，從而實現我們 2025 年年收入 50 億美元和 EBITDA 22.5 億美元的目標，相當於 45% 的 EBITDA 利潤率。我們預計利潤率將隨著收入的成長而成長，同時我們將繼續在看到推動成長機會的領域進行謹慎投資。

As we look forward, our priorities remain focused on innovating and executing on behalf of our customers and partners. We plan to: grow our customer engagement through a compelling dreaming-and-shop experience; deliver a more integrated customer transactional experience to drive customers to choose to transact with us and our partners; invest in sustainable top line growth opportunities across the company, including new integrated services that are more scalable, less subject to earnings volatility and more capital efficient; and lastly, manage our cost structure and improve productivity to drive a profitable, scalable and positive cash flow company.

展望未來，我們的首要任務仍然是代表客戶和合作夥伴進行創新和執行。我們計劃： 透過令人信服的夢想和購物體驗來提高客戶參與度；提供更全面的客戶交易體驗，促使客戶選擇與我們和我們的合作夥伴進行交易；投資整個公司的可持續營收成長機會，包括更具可擴展性、更少受獲利波動影響且更高資本效率的新綜合服務；最後，管理我們的成本結構並提高生產力，以推動一家盈利、可擴展和正現金流的公司。

And with that, operator, we'll open the line for questions.

接線員，接下來我們將開通提問專線。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Brian Nowak of Morgan Stanley.

（操作員指示）我們的第一個問題來自摩根士丹利的布萊恩·諾瓦克（Brian Nowak）。

I have a couple about the multiyear targets. The first one, so the 24% annualized growth on the new $5 billion target, pretty healthy growth. I guess, Rich, I'd be curious to hear, first of all, how you think about some of the keys to execution in the next couple of years to sort of realize that type of growth? And how should we think about the slope to the next couple of years' growth relative to the, call it, the next 4?

我有幾個關於多年目標的問題。第一個，新的 50 億美元目標的年化成長率為 24%，相當健康的成長。我想，里奇，我很想聽聽，首先，您如何看待未來幾年實現這種成長的執行關鍵？我們該如何考慮未來幾年相對於未來四年的成長斜率？

And then the second one is, if I do some math around the transactions, it looks like you already have a decent amount of seller-side transactions on the platform. Can you just talk to us again, remind us about where are you on monetizing seller leads? And how big of a part is that in the long-term targets?

第二個是，如果我對交易進行一些數學計算，看起來平台上已經有相當數量的賣方交易。您能否再次與我們聯繫，提醒我們您在透過賣家線索獲利方面進展如何？這在長期目標中佔多大比例？

Okay, Brian. Thanks. Well, maybe I'll set the table and then, Allen, you can serve the real food on this one. We did drop a whole bunch of new stuff on you all this quarter. I tell you, we had a lot of fun putting together these 2025 long-term targets as well as putting together this, I think it's a pretty tight deck that maybe many of you are looking at right now that really gets to answering, Brian, exactly what you're talking about.

好吧，布萊恩。謝謝。好吧，也許我會擺好桌子，然後艾倫，你就可以在這張桌子上提供真正的食物了。這個季度我們確實為你們帶來了一大堆新東西。我告訴你，我們很高興將這些2025 年長期目標放在一起，並將其放在一起，我認為這是一個非常緊湊的甲板，也許你們中的許多人現在正在看，真正可以回答，布萊恩，正是你所說的。

But from a table-setting perspective, it's really important to the new stuff we've said is we've made it a little crisper just what we mean by such a huge, engaged audience, okay? We have always talked about the 200 million-or-so unique users. We put a little bit finer point on that by focusing on the app by saying we get about 4 million daily app users, which is 3x the size of our nearest competitor. And the key to growth really is nothing more complicated than converting more of those 4 million daily app users into transacting customers, okay?

但從餐桌佈置的角度來看，對於我們所說的新東西來說，真正重要的是我們讓它變得更加清晰，這正是我們所說的如此龐大的、參與其中的觀眾的意思，好嗎？我們一直在談論大約 2 億左右的獨立用戶。我們透過專注於應用程式來更詳細地闡述這一點，我們說我們每天有大約 400 萬應用程式用戶，這是我們最接近的競爭對手的 3 倍。成長的關鍵其實就是將這 400 萬日常應用程式用戶中的更多人轉化為交易客戶，好嗎？

Another kind of really interesting and eye-opening data point that I talked about in my script was that we actually have 1.4 million of the actual homebuyers last year raised their hand to connect with us, all right? And yet, we've only ended up with 3% customer transaction share. We said 360,000 transactions.

我在劇本中談到的另一個非常有趣且令人大開眼界的數據點是，去年我們實際上有 140 萬實際購房者舉手與我們聯繫，好嗎？然而，我們最終只獲得了 3% 的客戶交易份額。我們說的是 36 萬筆交易。

So the big long lever is converting users into transactions, into customer transactions. We're better at it. We're going to be better at -- we have a history of driving that transaction penetration, no question. And innovation in both product and business model has been what that's about. But we have a lot more experience now because we have been in the guts of the business, buying and selling thousands of homes. We've built a bunch of stuff to support that, and that puts us in a terrific position to now build what we're calling this housing super app, which will act as the integration and dashboard of bringing these disparate components of the process altogether in one place in a really interesting way.

因此，長槓桿正在將用戶轉化為交易，轉化為客戶交易。我們更擅長。毫無疑問，我們有推動交易滲透的歷史，我們會做得更好。產品和商業模式的創新就是這樣的。但我們現在擁有更多的經驗，因為我們一直在業務的核心，買賣數千套房屋。我們已經構建了很多東西來支持這一點，這使我們現在處於一個非常好的位置，可以構建我們所說的這個住房超級應用程序，它將充當集成和儀表板，將流程中的這些不同組件整合在一起以一種非常有趣的方式在一個地方。

I'll pass it over to Allen by saying the -- highlighting that the 2025 targets assume that we take that 3% transaction share to 6% transaction share. And given all the stuff we're doing, especially, say, in the closer term, in terms of touring and financing with mortgages, we think that is achievable and exciting.

我將把這個問題轉交給艾倫，強調 2025 年的目標假設我們將 3% 的交易份額提高到 6% 的交易份額。考慮到我們正在做的所有事情，特別是在短期內，在巡迴和抵押貸款融資方面，我們認為這是可以實現的並且令人興奮。

Yes. Thanks, Rich. And thanks for asking the question, Brian. So I guess I'll start with, the 2025 financial targets was an opportunity for us to add some more transparency about the opportunity that's ahead of us that we're excited about as well as clarify the strong position we currently are in. And so as we think about that path to $5 billion and 45% EBITDA, as we've talked about, it's driven by this expectation that broader integrated offerings are going to drive both more transactions and higher revenue per transaction than where we are today.

是的。謝謝，里奇。感謝您提出這個問題，布萊恩。所以我想我首先要說的是，2025 年的財務目標對我們來說是一個機會，可以讓我們更加透明地了解我們面前的機會，我們對此感到興奮，並闡明我們目前所處的強勢地位。當我們思考通往50 億美元和45% EBITDA 的道路時，正如我們所討論的，這是由這樣的預期驅動的：更廣泛的集成產品將比我們現在的水平帶來更多的交易和更高的每筆交易收入。

And from a modeling perspective, and starting with the 12.2 million customer TAM, both the buy side and sell side, we talked about the 360,000 transactions we participate in today and just growing that share of 3% to 6%. In addition to that, it's taking the revenue per transaction we get today of around $4,100 and growing that to $5,200 a transaction. And we think that comes from having more customers using more of our services in an integrated way.

從建模的角度來看，從 1,220 萬客戶 TAM（包括買方和賣方）開始，我們討論了今天參與的 36 萬筆交易，並且該份額僅增長了 3% 至 6%。除此之外，我們目前每筆交易的收入約為 4,100 美元，並增加到每筆交易 5,200 美元。我們認為這來自於讓更多的客戶以整合的方式使用更多我們的服務。

In addition, I'll just call out that those 2025 targets include our other marketplace and industry software solutions businesses growing from $609 million in 2021 to $1.2 billion in 2025. As we think about this slope, we provided guidance for Q1. We think that this model is driven off of our ability to control and drive secular growth by serving the customer and integrating better with our partners. And I think there are some more near-term things and some longer-term things as we innovate.

此外，我只想指出，這些2025 年目標包括我們的其他市場和產業軟體解決方案業務，從2021 年的6.09 億美元成長到2025 年的12 億美元。當我們考慮這個斜率時，我們為第一季度提供了指引。我們認為，這種模式源自於我們透過服務客戶並與合作夥伴更好地整合來控制和推動長期成長的能力。我認為，隨著我們的創新，還有一些近期的事情和一些長期的事情。

That's kind of the innovation path. And we'll continue to share as we can how that slope may play out. But right now, I think what we'd say is we feel really comfortable based on the position we're in today with our brand, our audience, our partner network, our current standing with the number of -- the 1.4 million buyers who utilize our site today, and the financial position we are in, and the business model that can generate positive cash flow to execute well on the 2025 targets.

這就是一種創新之路。我們將繼續盡我們所能分享這個斜率將如何發揮作用。但現在，我認為我們要說的是，基於我們今天在品牌、受眾、合作夥伴網絡以及目前 140 萬買家中的地位，我們感到非常放心。利用我們今天的網站、我們所處的財務狀況以及可以產生正現金流的商業模式，以良好地執行2025 年目標。

I guess I served some of the dinner in there and we overlapped, but there were 2 other things in there. You were talking about the slope, Allen, in Brian's question. And that is -- kind of implicit in it is kind of where are we in the S curve of penetration? Where are we in the S curve of market share? And is the path from here to 2025 convex, linear, concave, what is it?

我想我在那裡提供了一些晚餐，我們重疊了，但那裡還有其他兩件事。艾倫，你在布萊恩的問題中談論的是斜坡。那就是——其中隱含的是我們在滲透的 S 曲線中處於什麼位置？我們處於市佔率 S 曲線的哪個位置？從這裡到2025年的路徑是凸的、線性的、凹的，那是什麼？

Here, my expectations are that once we get to the 6%, given this giant gap between the 6% and our usage and engagement numbers, which are 2/3 of the industry of actual buyers are using the site, I would expect -- it is my expectation that we will be continuing to invest for growth in a prudent way at that point. And so I expect continued growth. I don't know what that means about the implications of the curve, but I hope it's linear or better.

在這裡，我的期望是，一旦我們達到 6%，考慮到 6% 與我們的使用量和參與度之間存在巨大差距，即實際買家使用該網站的行業的 2/3，我預計——我期望屆時我們將繼續以審慎的方式投資促進成長。所以我預計會持續成長。我不知道曲線的含義是什麼，但我希望它是線性的或更好。

And then on the sell-side transaction question, yes, I think you can kind of connect dots based on what we shared and get at what our estimated sell-side transactions that we're getting -- that we are monetizing today is. It is a nontrivial chunk of our 360,000 customer transactions that we estimate.

然後關於賣方交易問題，是的，我認為您可以根據我們分享的內容將點連接起來，並了解我們估計的賣方交易，即我們今天正在貨幣化的交易。這是我們估計的 36 萬筆客戶交易中的一個重要部分。

And mainly, that is because people who are coming to buy homes with Zillow and with our partners, at least half of them are also selling their home, and a whole bunch of them do end up selling with our Premier Agent partners. And so we already access the sell side of the market. Now we want to enhance that and drive share there with more products and the super app, but we already have a terrific foothold today. All right. That was a long answer, Brian, I'm sorry, but thanks for the question.

這主要是因為那些透過 Zillow 和我們的合作夥伴購買房屋的人中，至少有一半人也在出售自己的房屋，而且其中許多人最終還是透過我們的高級代理商合作夥伴出售了房屋。因此，我們已經進入了市場的賣方市場。現在我們希望加強這一點，並透過更多產品和超級應用程式推動市場份額，但今天我們已經站穩了腳跟。好的。布萊恩，這是一個很長的答案，我很抱歉，但謝謝你的提問。

Our next question comes from Brad Erickson of RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的布拉德·埃里克森。

Just have a couple there. So you mentioned now a few times that you're engaging with this quarter of all buy stat last year versus market share at about 5%, I guess. Can you just give a little more color on how either MBP or Flex may be contributing there as you look to reduce that leakage? And any sense of the mix between the 2 models?

那裡只有一對。所以你現在幾次提到你正在參與去年這個季度的所有購買統計數據，而我猜市場佔有率約為 5%。當您希望減少洩漏時，您能否進一步說明 MBP 或 Flex 可能如何做出貢獻？這兩種模型之間的混合有什麼意義嗎？

And second, I guess a little related to the first. On the seller leads that you're looking to drive, you mentioned some that -- you've talked about before some of the calls to action that you're looking to implement on the site. Just curious to hear maybe a bit more about how you might serve to sort of tease out that signal of potential sellers. And any maybe early proof points as to how that's going?

第二，我想與第一個有點相關。關於您希望推動的賣家線索，您提到了一些您希望在網站上實施的號召性用語之前已經討論過的內容。只是好奇想聽聽更多有關您如何梳理出潛在賣家信號的信息。任何可能的早期證據表明這是如何進行的？

Do you want me to start with the MBP, Flex transaction, Rich? Thanks, Brad, I'll take the first part of the question.

Rich，你想讓我從 MBP、Flex 交易開始嗎？謝謝布拉德，我將回答問題的第一部分。

Sorry, I was on mute, yes.

抱歉，我當時處於靜音狀態，是的。

That's okay. So I guess how I would describe it, Brad, is that we feel like we have a very strong Premier Agent partner network, both across our MBP and our Flex models. Flex, in and of itself, is not a driver for transactions, but it is a driver for better alignment between ourselves, our customers and our partners we feel. And so we will continue to innovate and iterate on ways to align our partners with our products and services and our customers in ways to generate more transactions, higher conversion and more revenue per transaction.

沒關係。因此，Brad，我想我會如何描述它，我們感覺我們擁有一個非常強大的高級代理商合作夥伴網絡，無論是在我們的 MBP 還是我們的 Flex 模型中。 Flex 本身並不是交易的驅動力，但它是我們自己、我們的客戶和我們認為的合作夥伴之間更好協調的驅動力。因此，我們將繼續創新和迭代，使我們的合作夥伴與我們的產品和服務以及我們的客戶保持一致，從而產生更多交易、更高的轉換率和每筆交易的更多收入。

So we're very pleased with where we are, both on the MBP and Flex model. And I wouldn't call one or the other out as the biggest driver of the journey to the 2025 targets. But I think the key is alignment, and as Rich mentioned, the more integrated transaction with tools that serve our customers well and also sort of our partner network well.

因此，我們對 MBP 和 Flex 模型的現狀非常滿意。我不會將其中一個稱為實現 2025 年目標的最大推動力。但我認為關鍵是協調一致，正如里奇所提到的，更一體化的交易與工具可以很好地服務我們的客戶，也可以很好地服務我們的合作夥伴網絡。

And on your second part, Brad, look, what we have come to fully realize is something that, I guess, we should all intuitively understand. And that is -- I don't know how to put it -- like, Ford, for the Super Bowl ads that they have coming up, is not going to make an advertisement that says, sell your current car, okay? What they're do -- what their marketing on the Super Bowl ad is the dream of the new car with the red bow on it in your driveway.

布拉德，在你的第二部分，你看，我們已經完全意識到，我想我們都應該直觀地理解。那就是——我不知道該怎麼說——就像，福特，他們即將推出的超級盃廣告，不會製作一個廣告說，賣掉你現在的車，好嗎？他們所做的事——他們在超級盃廣告上的行銷是夢想在你的車道上擁有一輛帶有紅色蝴蝶結的新車。

The housing equivalent of that, it holds. People -- the inspiration and aspiration of the move is the new place. The greatest seller lead opportunity we have is in helping people dream about the new house, okay? And we have a really fantastic position in that, that we're already converting into some sell-side business today.

住房相當於這一點，它成立。人——搬遷的靈感和願望是新的地方。我們擁有的最大的賣家引導機會是幫助人們夢想新房子，好嗎？我們在這方面擁有非常出色的地位，今天我們已經轉變為一些賣方業務。

Now we also understand that solving this kind of painful but necessary part of the super app, part of the moving process of selling your house is a big deal. And having good solves for that with creative new solutions is an important area of innovation, and we are fully embracing that.

現在我們也明白，解決超級應用程式中這種痛苦但必要的部分，即出售房屋的搬家過程的一部分是一件大事。透過創造性的新解決方案來解決這個問題是創新的一個重要領域，我們完全接受這一點。

As you well know, we ran a big, giant experiment with iBuying so we know a whole lot more about that now. So we'll pitch a big tent over that and are innovating and working with partners to make sure we have compelling offerings to solve that particular problem.

如您所知，我們對 iBuying 進行了一次大型實驗，因此我們現在對此有了更多了解。因此，我們將在此基礎上搭建一個大帳篷，不斷創新並與合作夥伴合作，以確保我們擁有引人注目的產品來解決該特定問題。

Our next question comes from John Colantuoni of Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 John Colantuoni。

Wanted to start with the housing market. Maybe you could just walk us through what you're seeing today from a macro perspective. And how your outlook for the housing market over the next 3 years ties into your 2025 targets?

想從房地產市場著手。也許您可以從宏觀角度向我們介紹一下您今天所看到的情況。您對未來 3 年房地產市場的展望與您的 2025 年目標有何關聯？

And second, you outlined plans to increase the 1.4 million homebuyers who tried to connect on Zillow last year, which is already an impressive figure. One of the initiatives you mentioned is developing asset-light seller solutions by leveraging your learnings from iBuying. Given the seller side has been more elusive for Zillow in the past, can you provide any specifics around the products that you're planning to roll out that will help bolster seller connections?

其次，您概述了增加去年嘗試在 Zillow 上連接的 140 萬購房者的計劃，這已經是一個令人印象深刻的數字。您提到的舉措之一是利用您從 iBuying 學到的知識來開發輕資產賣家解決方案。鑑於過去 Zillow 的賣家方面更加難以捉摸，您能否提供有關您計劃推出的有助於加強賣家聯繫的產品的任何細節？

Okay. Hey, John. You want me to -- Allen, I'll start with the macro stuff and maybe, Brad, jump in if I get it -- if and when I get it wrong. I realize that we're in a particularly interesting macro environment, given the high level of uncertainty, okay? We are well aware that it's more uncertain than usual. But our economists forecast strong macro and strong housing market this year, following up a very strong market in 2021. In fact, I think highest trends, that number of transactions since 2006, Brad, am I right? Am I getting a nod?

好的。嘿，約翰。你希望我——艾倫，我會從宏觀的東西開始，也許，布拉德，如果我明白了——如果我弄錯了，就介入。我意識到，鑑於高度的不確定性，我們正處於一個特別有趣的宏觀環境中，好嗎？我們很清楚，情況比平常更不確定。但我們的經濟學家預測，繼 2021 年非常強勁的市場之後，今年宏觀經濟和房地產市場將強勁。事實上，我認為最高趨勢是自 2006 年以來的交易數量，布拉德，我對嗎？我得到點頭了嗎？

Correct, yes.

正確，是的。

All right, correct. Thank you. I don't want to get that wrong. It didn't certainly feel like that last year, did it, because inventory was so low and inventory continues to be low. But that doesn't mean there can't be a lot of transactions. And while our economists are forecasting that, we are taking -- Allen and his team are certainly taking the more uncertain than usual into account.

好吧，正確。謝謝。我不想弄錯。去年的感覺肯定不是這樣，是嗎，因為庫存非常低，而且庫存仍然很低。但這並不意味著不能有大量交易。雖然我們的經濟學家正在預測這一點，但我們正在考慮——艾倫和他的團隊肯定會考慮比平常更不確定的因素。

What's driving the strength is this kind of millennial tide that's rising. They are really -- this demographic tide is rising on the industry. And that, coupled with supply that's not rising as fast is making this, we think, continuing to be a strong market. Did I say that okay, Allen, Brad?

推動力量的是這股正在興起的千禧年浪潮。他們確實是──這個產業的人口浪潮正在興起。我們認為，再加上供應成長速度不快，這將繼續成為一個強勁的市場。我說過了嗎，艾倫，布萊德？

Yes. And I'll just add on top of that, that as you mentioned, Rich, our Q1 guide reflects some of that macro uncertainty that Rich talked about in the short term. The lower new sale listings, high occupancy rates in rentals and lower builder inventory are all reflective in and informed our Q1 guide. But we continue to see strong demand signals on our site and strong interest from our partners with very low churn.

是的。除此之外，我還要補充一點，正如您所提到的，里奇，我們的第一季指南反映了里奇在短期內談到的一些宏觀不確定性。新銷售清單的減少、租賃的高入住率和建築商庫存的減少都反映在我們的第一季指南中並為我們提供了資訊。但我們繼續在我們的網站上看到強烈的需求訊號，以及我們的合作夥伴的濃厚興趣，而且客戶流失率非常低。

And so the opportunity, we feel well positioned as we look at this opportunity and this path to the 2025 targets to focus on the customer, improving our partner network and providing them tools. And that we believe that the 2025 targets are appropriately aggressive but achievable through a lot of the things that we just talked about.

因此，當我們看到這個機會和通往 2025 年目標的道路時，我們感覺自己處於有利位置，以客戶為中心，改善我們的合作夥伴網絡並為他們提供工具。我們相信 2025 年的目標是適當激進的，但可以透過我們剛才談到的許多事情來實現。

Just to get on the macro and how it affects our '25 targets, I just want to reiterate that our 2025 financial targets are based on flat industry transaction assumptions, so no increase in industry transactions, and low single-digit HPA assumptions. So our model and the KPIs that we built really are based on our opportunity to innovate and integrate our services and drive secular growth based on the strong foundation that we have.

為了了解宏觀情況以及它如何影響我們的 25 年目標，我只想重申，我們的 2025 年財務目標是基於行業交易持平的假設，因此行業交易沒有增加，並且 HPA 假設處於低個位數。因此，我們建立的模型和關鍵績效指標實際上是基於我們創新和整合服務的機會，並在我們擁有的堅實基礎上推動長期成長。

Okay. But what Allen said about low single-digit 3% HPA home price appreciation and flat transactions, that's not a macro call we're making. We're just -- that's just for modeling purposes. That's what we've done. So that's not our macro call. I mean that 3% compares to, what, 9% CAGR since 1971. Or is that total industry?

好的。但艾倫所說的低個位數 3% 的 HPA 房價升值和交易持平，這並不是我們做出的宏觀預測。我們只是——這只是為了建模的目的。這就是我們所做的。所以這不是我們的巨集調用。我的意思是，3% 與自 1971 年以來的 9% 複合年增長率相比。或者說這就是整個產業？

Anyway, one more thing, sorry. I'd be remiss if I didn't say amidst all this macro conversation, which I understand is important for a read-through to all of our businesses in the economy, I get it. But really the big shift that we are on the leading edge of is the shift in a giant industry, the largest perhaps in the U.S., of moving from the off-line, non-digital way of doing things to the online digital way of doing things, with us as the leader in that. And that actually is really the most important lever and shift from a macro perspective to our long-term results.

無論如何，還有一件事，抱歉。如果我在所有這些宏觀對話中不說的話，那就是我的失職了，我知道這對於通讀我們經濟中的所有企業都很重要，我明白了。但實際上，我們處於領先地位的重大轉變是一個巨大行業（可能是美國最大的行業）的轉變，即從離線、非數字的做事方式轉向在線數字的做事方式事情，我們是這方面的領導者。這其實是最重要的槓桿，也是從宏觀角度到我們長期結果的轉變。

Our next question comes from Mark Mahaney with Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Mark Mahaney。

Okay. I'll go back to that 2025 outlook, and I love the idea of swinging for the fences, Rich and Allen, and laying out these long-term markers. I look at the assumptions that are in there, and the one that strikes me as most aggressive is that 6% share of transactions. I know it's up 3%, but that's a doubling of the share from what you had in '21. So maybe just double-click on that a little bit. The other assumptions don't seem as aggressive. That one does seem aggressive.

好的。我將回顧 2025 年的展望，我喜歡里奇和艾倫的圍欄想法，並製定這些長期標記。我查看了其中的假設，令我印象最激進的是 6% 的交易份額。我知道成長了 3%，但這比 21 年的份額翻了一番。所以也許只需雙擊一下即可。其他假設似乎沒那麼激進。那個人看起來確實很有侵略性。

Maybe we need some context as to where that -- if it was 3% in '21, where it was before. Or if you look at all of the different things you could do to increase that going from 3% to 6%, what do you think are the easiest things to do? And what would be the hardest things to do? Just on that particular metric because I think that's pretty key to this $5 billion outlook.

也許我們需要一些背景資訊來了解這一比例——如果 21 年是 3%，那麼之前的比例是多少。或者，如果您考慮一下可以採取的所有不同措施來將這一比例從 3% 提高到 6%，您認為最容易做的事情是什麼？最難做的事情是什麼？就這個特定指標而言，因為我認為這對 50 億美元的前景非常關鍵。

Maybe I'll start and, Allen, you guys jump in. When you break it down into the components, it doesn't feel -- it feels doable to me, Mark, and I'm a big believer in BHAGs. I don't even know if I'd call this BHAG, big hairy audacious goal. It is, no doubt, not timid, okay? But these goals end up being self-fulfilling because of the creativity they tend to release internally with all the smart people we have. And given the resources we have, I'm confident.

也許我會開始，艾倫，你們也加入進來。當你把它分解成各個組成部分時，我感覺這並不可行，馬克，而且我是 BHAG 的堅定信徒。我什至不知道我是否可以稱這個為“BHAG”，一個毛茸茸的大膽目標。毫無疑問，它並不膽怯，好嗎？但這些目標最終會自我實現，因為它們往往會與我們所有的聰明人一起在內部釋放創造力。考慮到我們擁有的資源，我有信心。

But 2 rather low bits of hanging fruit we've talked about a bit on conversion here is getting on top of and really taking advantage of our position with home touring and building a digital home tour reservation system. Right now, it's super complicated to schedule a home tour. And so a good deal of home tour request demand goes unfulfilled. I don't know what the data point on that is that, Brad, we might actually got...

但是，我們在這裡討論過的關於轉換的兩個相當低的懸而未決的事情是，充分利用我們在家庭旅遊方面的地位，並建立一個數位家庭旅遊預訂系統。現在，安排一次家庭旅行非常複雜。因此，大量的家庭旅遊請求需求未能滿足。我不知道這方面的數據點是什麼，布拉德，我們實際上可能得到...

Yes, it's 23% of our tours only that we're fulfilling today. We have meaningful opportunities to upside those. And the other point just to throw in for -- to hit here is we get about double the conversion rate on a tour of our other leads. And so growing the mix of touring is pretty significant to help drive conversion rate.

是的，我們今天只完成了 23% 的旅行。我們有有意義的機會來改善這些。另一點是，我們在其他線索的巡迴演出中獲得了大約兩倍的轉換率。因此，增加巡迴組合對於提高轉換率非常重要。

I think in my script, I said 3x the conversion, Brad. I'm not sure, but...

我想在我的腳本中，我說過 3 倍的轉換，布拉德。我不確定，但是...

I'm sorry, correct. You're correct, Rich.

對不起，正確。你是對的，里奇。

Yes, okay. So 3x the conversion when we actually connect a partner with a customer on a tour. And so that -- it doesn't take too much imagination to see how us wiring up that into the Zillow super app experience could drive increased conversion rate to transaction.

是的，好的。因此，當我們在旅行中實際將合作夥伴與客戶聯繫起來時，轉換率會提高 3 倍。因此，無需太多想像力，我們就能將其連接到 Zillow 超級應用程式體驗中，從而提高交易轉換率。

Another one is financing. I did Mortgages. I talked already quite a bit about that. But we had our guns in Mortgages all trained towards iBuying. So all the work we've really been doing for the last couple of years with Zillow Home Loans and building our own mortgage operation was in service to iBuying. And a lot of it was actually pretty interesting.

另一個是融資。我做過抵押貸款。我已經談過很多了。但我們在抵押貸款領域的槍口全部瞄準了 iBuying。因此，過去幾年我們在 Zillow Home Loans 上所做的所有工作以及建立我們自己的抵押貸款業務都是為 iBuying 服務的。其中很多實際上非常有趣。

And we have this factor. We had not been focused on the bigger lever, on the bigger opportunity, which is basically distributing a mortgage product directly to our customers and via our Premier Agent partners. In this time period, we are confident that we will be able to develop our fantastic partner network into a distribution network for our mortgage. That will then be just integrated into the super app in a way that puts the mortgage in its proper place, which really is kind of a painful but important support stepping stone along the way to the new house. We just want it to be integrated right into the super app. I don't know if that -- I mean, there is a lot more to driving to that 6%, but those are 2 of the big ones.

我們有這個因素。我們沒有專注於更大的槓桿，更大的機會，這基本上是透過我們的高級代理商合作夥伴直接向我們的客戶分發抵押貸款產品。在此期間，我們有信心將我們出色的合作夥伴網絡發展成為抵押貸款的分銷網絡。然後，它將以一種將抵押貸款放在適當位置的方式整合到超級應用程式中，這確實是通往新房子的路上痛苦但重要的支援墊腳石。我們只是希望它能夠直接整合到超級應用程式中。我不知道這是否——我的意思是，要達到這 6%，還有很多事情要做，但這是其中兩個重要的事情。

Yes. And the only thing that I'd just, I guess, reiterate, you talked about some of the features and services that we think are going to improve conversion. But starting with this 25% of homebuyers already asking to speak to an agent, and so those being customers that have raised their hand, is a great starting point. And that's only, being 1 in 4 right now, gives us confidence that these services and improved features and integration should give us quite a bit of leverage as we go through and grow this transaction count.

是的。我想，我想重申的唯一一件事是，您談到了我們認為將提高轉換率的一些功能和服務。但從這 25% 的購屋者已經要求與經紀人交談開始，因此那些舉手的客戶是一個很好的起點。目前這一比例僅為四分之一，這讓我們相信，這些服務以及改進的功能和整合應該在我們處理和增加交易數量時為我們提供相當大的影響力。

Our final question comes from Ryan McKeveny of Zelman & Associates.

我們的最後一個問題來自 Zelman & Associates 的 Ryan McKeveny。

I appreciate all the detail, all the new stuff. And Rich, I agree with you. Shout-out to the designers and marketing folks and data folks. The content of the deck is very good, so I appreciate that. But back to my question. So I've got 2 on the long-term opportunity. First one, somewhat similar to others, so focusing on this movement from 3% market share to 6% market share.

我欣賞所有的細節，所有的新東西。里奇，我同意你的觀點。向設計師、行銷人員和數據人員致敬。該套牌的內容非常好，所以我很欣賞。但回到我的問題。所以我有 2 個長期機會。第一個，與其他有點類似，因此重點關注從 3% 市場份額到 6% 市場份額的這種變化。

Maybe I'll ask a bit more in terms of how we can look at the past to possibly help think about the future. So Slide 7, you show 360,000 transactions in 2021 on 1.4 million connections, so about a 25% conversion rate. Can you share any insight on how that conversion rate from connection to consumer or to customer compares to maybe the last 2, 3, 4, 5 years? I'd imagine both the number of connections as well as the conversion rate has improved over time. But maybe seeing a bit of a trend line there on how things have trended will help us bridge to what to expect in the future.

也許我會問更多關於我們如何回顧過去以幫助思考未來的問題。因此，幻燈片 7 顯示了 2021 年 140 萬個連接上的 36 萬筆交易，因此轉換率約為 25%。您能否分享一下與過去 2、3、4、5 年相比，從連接到消費者或客戶的轉換率如何？我想隨著時間的推移，連線數量和轉換率都會有所提高。但也許看到一些關於事物發展趨勢的趨勢線將有助於我們了解未來的預期。

Allen, do you want to take a stab at that?

艾倫，你想嘗試嗎？

Yes, yes. I guess what I'd say is that we made the decision in 2018 to go deeper into the transaction. We -- that was the start of us taking a harder look at how can we drive transactions and success for our customers through the transaction. And maybe the proxy I'll use is connections. But since 2019, we've seen our ability to drive connections and conversion through our partner agent base grow.

是的是的。我想我想說的是，我們在 2018 年就做出了進一步深入交易的決定。我們從那時起開始更仔細地研究如何透過交易推動交易並為客戶帶來成功。也許我會使用的代理是連線。但自 2019 年以來，我們看到我們透過合作夥伴代理基礎推動聯繫和轉化的能力不斷增強。

I don't have the, I guess, the analog to -- or the compare to the 1.4 million, 360,000, but we have seen growth as we started to focus on ensuring our customers were connected with an agent or served well. And I think you heard about us talk about connections, high-intent customers and the things we've done to drive that and close transactions versus the more ad-based or lead-based gen that we had been prior to '19. I don't know, Brad or Rich, would you add anything to that? I just don't have the data.

我想，我沒有與 140 萬、36 萬進行類比，但隨著我們開始專注於確保我們的客戶與代理商聯繫或得到良好的服務，我們已經看到了成長。我想你聽說過我們談論聯繫、高意向客戶以及我們為推動這一點並完成交易所做的事情，而不是我們在 19 年之前更多基於廣告或基於潛在客戶的一代。我不知道，布拉德或里奇，你能補充什麼嗎？我只是沒有數據。

Well, it's taken a lot. I guess what I'd say, Ryan, is it like strategically, you've been hearing us talk about Zillow 2.0 and the move towards the transaction for a few years, right? And we -- it's taken us this long to get to a point where we could even find the transactions account, given the diversity of our business model. And so a big reason we don't have a good historical comp for you on that is that we don't have historical comps. We have worked really hard to come up with this estimate so that we can -- to communicate to you all for sure. But this is how we want to manage our business and our strategy internally, all right? So this is super important for us to get right internally.

嗯，已經花了很多了。我想我想說的是，Ryan，從戰略上講，您已經聽我們談論 Zillow 2.0 以及轉向交易已有幾年了，對嗎？考慮到我們業務模式的多樣性，我們花了這麼長時間才找到交易帳戶。因此，我們沒有為您提供良好的歷史比較的一個重要原因是我們沒有歷史比較。我們非常努力地得出這個估計，以便我們能夠與大家進行明確的溝通。但這就是我們想要在內部管理我們的業務和策略的方式，好嗎？因此，這對於我們內部的正確處理非常重要。

But as Allen pointed out, the history of the company is about slowly but surely driving conversion rates from user into customer. And now we have, what we think it should be, a pretty good denominator for that.

但正如艾倫指出的那樣，該公司的歷史就是緩慢但堅定地推動從用戶到客戶的轉換率。現在我們有了一個非常好的分母，我們認為它應該是這樣的。

That makes sense. A quick second question. Rich, a big picture one for you. So after the ZO wind-down, you're left with a significant amount of cash. You can focus on growth. You can repurchase stock, as you have been; invest in R&D. I guess to focus a bit more on the M&A side of things, I guess I wonder how do you think about the opportunity or the possibility to be more active with proptech investments, either directly investing in early-stage proptech startups or outright acquiring companies.

這就說得通了。快速的第二個問題。 Rich，給你一張大圖。因此，ZO 結束後，您將擁有大量現金。您可以專注於成長。您可以像以前一樣回購股票；投資研發。我想更專注於事物的併購方面，我想我想知道您如何看待更積極地進行房地產科技投資的機會或可能性，無論是直接投資於早期房地產科技新創公司還是直接收購公司。

I'm just -- I'm almost thinking, is there an opportunity to be somewhat of an incubator. I'm sure you see a lot of interesting tech early in the days as things get started and just wonder how you think big picture about that opportunity or just the M&A opportunity to tack some good tech on over time.

我只是——我幾乎在想，是否有機會成為一個孵化器。我相信，當事情開始的時候，你會在早期看到很多有趣的技術，只是想知道你如何看待這個機會或只是隨著時間的推移增加一些好的技術的併購機會。

Yes. I mean, it's an opportunity. I would call -- looking at Zillow, our history is that a consistent but opportunistic acquirer, okay? When we see opportunities to really accelerate what we're trying to do strategically, we will take advantage of that. And the ShowingTime acquisition last year is a good example of that. A couple of years ago when we acquired Mortgage Lenders of America, to get a -- not have a cold start on our Mortgage operation, that was another one.

是的。我的意思是，這是一個機會。我想說——看看 Zillow，我們的歷史是一個始終如一但機會主義的收購者，好嗎？當我們看到真正加速我們的策略目標的機會時，我們將充分利用它。去年收購 ShowingTime 就是一個很好的例子。幾年前，當我們收購美國抵押貸款公司時，為了讓我們的抵押貸款業務不冷啟動，那是另一回事。

Jeremy Hofmann, who runs our corp dev group in addition to strategy and IR, is probably the most popular guy in proptech. So we talk with, we run tests with, partner with all of these companies in the space. We don't have an explicit incubation, venture capital, kind of corporate venture capital endeavor. We do have a lot of opportunity in that regard. We don't necessarily think we need to invest because when things want to trade, everything kind of lands on our doorstep first anyway. And I don't want to sound too opportunistic that way. We have really good relationships with these companies, and we think there's a lot of cool innovation happening.

傑里米霍夫曼 (Jeremy Hofmann) 負責管理我們的公司開發團隊以及策略和投資者關係，他可能是房地產科技領域最受歡迎的人。因此，我們與該領域的所有這些公司進行交談、進行測試、合作。我們沒有明確的孵化、創投、企業創投活動。在這方面我們確實有很多機會。我們不一定認為我們需要投資，因為當東西想要交易時，無論如何，所有東西都會先落在我們家門口。我不想這樣聽起來太機會主義了。我們與這些公司有著非常良好的關係，我們認為正在發生許多很酷的創新。

This completes the allotted time. I'll now turn the call back to Rich Barton.

這樣就完成了分配的時間。現在我將把電話轉回給里奇·巴頓。

All right. Hey, thank you all for showing up. It is -- as I said at the end of my prepared remarks, it's a really, really fun and entertaining, endlessly interesting industry, real estate is. Maybe not quite as entertaining as Netflix, but not too far off. We're really psyched to be on the journey with you, and we'll talk to you soon. Thanks.

好的。嘿，謝謝大家的出現。正如我在準備好的演講結尾處所說，房地產是一個非常非常有趣、無窮無盡的行業。也許不如 Netflix 那麼有趣，但也相差不遠。我們非常高興能與您一起踏上旅程，我們很快就會與您聯繫。謝謝。

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。