Zillow Group Inc (ZG) 2019 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon.

午安.

And welcome to the Zillow Group Fourth Quarter 2019 Earnings Conference Call.

歡迎參加 Zillow Group 2019 年第四季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded.

（操作員說明）請注意，正在記錄此事件。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Brad Berning, Vice President, Investor Relations.

我現在想將會議交給投資者關係副總裁 Brad Berning。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Thank you, Sarah.

謝謝你，莎拉。

Good afternoon, and welcome to Zillow Group's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2019 Conference Call.

下午好，歡迎參加 Zillow Group 2019 年第四季和全年電話會議。

For those on the call that I haven't met yet, I'd like to look forward to doing so soon.

對於那些我還沒有見過的電話會議的人，我希望盡快見到他們。

Joining me today to discuss our Q4 and full year results are Zillow Group's Co-Founder and CEO, Rich Barton; and CFO, Allen Parker.

今天與我一起討論我們第四季和全年業績的是 Zillow Group 聯合創始人兼執行長 Rich Barton；和財務長艾倫·帕克。

During the call, we'll make forward-looking statements about our future performance and operating plans based on current expectations and assumptions.

在電話會議期間，我們將根據當前的預期和假設對未來業績和營運計劃做出前瞻性陳述。

These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, and we encourage you to consider the risk factors described in our SEC filings for additional information.

這些陳述存在風險和不確定性，我們鼓勵您考慮我們向 SEC 提交的文件中所述的風險因素以獲取更多資訊。

We undertake no obligation to update these statements as a result of new information or future events, except as required by law.

我們不承擔因新資訊或未來事件而更新這些聲明的義務，除非法律要求。

This call is being broadcast on the Internet and is accessible on our Investor Relations website.

這次電話會議正在網路上播出，並且可以在我們的投資者關係網站上存取。

A recording of the call will be available later today.

今天稍後將提供通話錄音。

During the call, we will discuss GAAP and non-GAAP measures, including adjusted EBITDA, which we refer to as EBITDA.

在電話會議期間，我們將討論 GAAP 和非 GAAP 指標，包括調整後的 EBITDA，我們稱之為 EBITDA。

We encourage you to read our shareholder letter and earnings release, which can be found on our Investor Relations website, as they contain important information about our GAAP and non-GAAP results, including reconciliations of historical non-GAAP financial measures.

我們鼓勵您閱讀我們的股東信函和收益發布，這些內容可以在我們的投資者關係網站上找到，因為它們包含有關我們的 GAAP 和非 GAAP 業績的重要信息，包括歷史非 GAAP 財務指標的調節表。

In addition, please note, we refer to our Internet, Media & Technology segment as our IMT segment.

此外，請注意，我們將互聯網、媒體和技術部門稱為 IMT 部門。

We will open the call with brief remarks, followed by live Q&A.

我們將以簡短的演講開始電話會議，然後進行現場問答。

And with that, I will turn the call over to Rich.

然後，我會將電話轉給 Rich。

Thank you, Brad.

謝謝你，布拉德。

I'd like to start by officially welcoming you to our team.

首先我想正式歡迎您加入我們的團隊。

Many of you know Brad from his work on the other side of this phone, most recently as a sell-side analyst covering Zillow and other companies.

你們中的許多人都透過 Brad 在手機另一端的工作認識了他，他最近擔任 Zillow 和其他公司的賣方分析師。

He has decades of experience with deep expertise in housing and financial services.

他擁有數十年的經驗，在住房和金融服務領域擁有深厚的專業知識。

We are delighted to have him on our team, and we expect the call to take half as long now that he's not asking his usual multipart questions.

我們很高興他加入我們的團隊，我們預計通話時間會縮短一半，因為他不再問通常的多部分問題。

Wink, wink.

眨眼眨眼。

Seriously, Brad's already making a significant contribution, and we look forward to introducing him on the road in the weeks and months ahead.

說真的，布拉德已經做出了重大貢獻，我們期待在未來幾週和幾個月內把他介紹給我們。

Okay.

好的。

It's been exactly 363 days since Allen and I joined you for our first quarterly conference call.

自從我和 Allen 參加我們的第一次季度電話會議以來，已經過去 363 天了。

As we sit here a year later, our 2019 results clearly demonstrate we're making progress against our plan to replatform real estate and move down funnel to deliver our customers a seamless and integrated transaction experience.

一年後，當我們坐在這裡時，我們 2019 年的業績清楚地表明，我們在重新構建房地產平台和向下推進漏斗以向客戶提供無縫集成交易體驗的計劃方面正在取得進展。

I'm pleased with our team's strong execution, which delivered Q4 and full year results that beat our outlook.

我對我們團隊的強大執行力感到滿意，第四季和全年的業績超出了我們的預期。

This multiyear expedition has us on course to not only streamline the moving experience but also to dramatically expand our market opportunity and profit potential.

這次多年的考察不僅使我們簡化了搬家體驗，而且還大大擴大了我們的市場機會和利潤潛力。

I'd like to start by calling out just a few of our 2019 accomplishments.

首先，我想簡單介紹一下我們 2019 年所取得的一些成就。

First, we stabilized, then reaccelerated growth in our core Premier Agent business, growth that we expect to carry on in 2020.

首先，我們穩定了核心高階代理業務的成長，然後又重新加速了成長，我們預計這一成長將在 2020 年繼續下去。

We continue to be methodical, innovating and optimizing monetization of our lead flow and are optimistic about the future of Premier Agent.

我們將繼續有條不紊地創新和優化潛在客戶流的貨幣化，並對 Premier Agent 的未來持樂觀態度。

Second, we grew our new Zillow Offers business in the Homes segment to $1.4 billion in revenue in 2019, up from a mere $52 million the year before and ending the year on a $2.4 billion annual revenue run rate.

其次，我們在住宅領域的新 Zillow Offers 業務在 2019 年將營收成長至 14 億美元，而前年僅為 5,200 萬美元，截至年底，年收入運行率為 24 億美元。

We did this while opening 17 new markets and executing within the unit profit guardrails we laid out for our launch phase.

我們在這樣做的同時開闢了 17 個新市場，並在我們為啟動階段製定的單位利潤護欄內執行。

This was extraordinary execution against a rich vein of consumer demand for a novel consumer service.

針對消費者對新穎消費者服務的豐富需求，這是非凡的執行力。

Third, the addition of transaction-oriented businesses has necessitated a leveling up in how we operate, infusing cost discipline and operational rigor into every business and corporate function.

第三，交易導向業務的增加需要提升我們的營運方式，將成本紀律和營運嚴謹性融入每項業務和公司職能。

Internally, we call this getting fit with a sharp focus on scaling efficiently.

在內部，我們稱之為“適應”，重點關注高效擴展。

Much more disciplined and accountable planning and review processes have been critical here.

更嚴格和負責任的規劃和審查流程在這裡至關重要。

Fitness is essential for the expedition.

體能對於這次探險至關重要。

It's foundational for profit leverage and demanding a perpetual focus and improvement.

它是利潤槓桿的基礎，需要永久的關注和改進。

Next, we strengthened our balance sheet and then ended 2019 with $2.4 billion in cash and investments.

接下來，我們加強了資產負債表，並在 2019 年結束時擁有 24 億美元的現金和投資。

Our strong balance sheet with increasingly diversified funding sources provides us with the flexibility to pursue our growth opportunities in a disciplined way.

我們強大的資產負債表和日益多元化的資金來源使我們能夠靈活地以嚴格的方式追求成長機會。

Next, we filled out our management bench with seasoned operators in mortgage, title and escrow, corporate relations, marketing, finance, operations and more.

接下來，我們在抵押、所有權和託管、企業關係、行銷、財務、營運等方面經驗豐富的營運商填補了我們的管理陣容。

All the while, we continue to attract outstanding tech industry talent and are consistently recognized as a great place to work and build a career.

一直以來，我們不斷吸引優秀的科技業人才，並且始終被認為是工作和職業生涯的理想場所。

Our team is strong, and we continue to add and up-level key positions as we grow.

我們的團隊很強大，隨著我們的成長，我們不斷增加和提升關鍵職位。

And finally, we are in the process of galvanizing our employees around a new mission statement that animates our transition to Zillow 2.0.

最後，我們正在圍繞新的使命宣言激勵我們的員工，推動我們向 Zillow 2.0 的過渡。

At Zillow, our mission is to give the people the power to unlock life's next chapter.

在 Zillow，我們的使命是賦予人們開啟人生新篇章的力量。

I got to do it again.

我必須再做一次。

At Zillow, our mission is to give people the power to unlock life's next chapter.

在 Zillow，我們的使命是賦予人們開啟人生新篇章的力量。

It was meant to be more dramatic.

這本來是為了更戲劇性。

Our homes represent distinct chapters of our lives, and we are building our technology, services and operations to make it easier to, as Bob Seger says, turn the page.

我們的家代表著我們生活的不同篇章，我們正在建立我們的技術、服務和運營，以便像鮑勃·西格 (Bob Seger) 所說的那樣，更輕鬆地翻過新的一頁。

In our quarterly shareholder letter, you will find a link to a short video you might enjoy watching about our new mission.

在我們的季度股東信中，您會找到一個您可能喜歡觀看的有關我們新使命的短影片的連結。

It never fails to bring a tear to my eye.

它總是讓我熱淚盈眶。

Okay.

好的。

To wrap my brief year-end review introduction, I'll reiterate that I'm extremely proud of what our team has accomplished over the past year, especially in light of how much business and cultural change I have asked for.

在結束我簡短的年終回顧介紹時，我要重申，我對我們團隊在過去一年所取得的成就感到非常自豪，特別是考慮到我所要求的業務和文化變革。

Allen will take you through the Q4 and full year results and 2020 outlook.

艾倫將帶您了解第四季和全年業績以及 2020 年展望。

But first, I want to spend a couple of minutes on our Premier Agent and Homes businesses and share our areas of focus for 2020.

但首先，我想花幾分鐘介紹我們的高級代理商和房屋業務，並分享我們 2020 年的重點領域。

Starting with Premier Agent.

從高級代理開始。

While we entered 2019 with significantly heightened partner churn versus the prior year, we have started 2020 with some of the best retention rates we've seen in recent history.

雖然進入 2019 年時，合作夥伴流失率比前一年顯著增加，但 2020 年伊始，我們的合作夥伴保留率達到了近年來的最高水準。

Our connection rates are on the rise.

我們的連接率正在上升。

And through our work to partner with the best agents, we saw customer satisfaction continue to increase during the quarter.

透過與最好的代理商合作，我們看到客戶滿意度在本季持續提高。

This has been driven primarily by solid execution as our team has heightened its focus on making connections between our customers and our best partners, which contributed to strong Premier Agent revenue growth.

這主要是由紮實的執行力推動的，因為我們的團隊更加重視在客戶和最佳合作夥伴之間建立聯繫，這促成了高階代理商收入的強勁成長。

I want to commend Susan Daimler, who leads our Premier Agent business, and her entire extended team for, first, stabilizing this core business and then leading a reacceleration of it.

我要讚揚領導我們高級代理商業務的蘇珊·戴姆勒 (Susan Daimler) 以及她的整個擴展團隊，他們首先穩定了這一核心業務，然後領導其重新加速發展。

As you can see in the Premier Agent same-store sales chart in our shareholder letter, when we back out the impact of our 2019 Flex tests, we ended December with 12% year-over-year same-store sales growth in monthly recurring revenue, up from 5% at the end of September.

正如您在股東信函中的 Premier Agent 同店銷售圖表中看到的那樣，當我們取消 2019 年 Flex 測試的影響時，截至 12 月，我們的月度經常性收入同比同店銷售增長了 12% ，高於9月底的5%。

Looking down on our Premier Agent business from 50,000 feet, our goal is to, a, increase our big C conversion rate from visitor to transactor; and b, increase our revenue and profit yield per lead.

從 50,000 英尺的高空俯視我們的高級代理商業務，我們的目標是： a、提高從訪客到交易者的大 C 轉換率； b、增加我們每條銷售線索的收入和利潤率。

We believe there's room for growth in both of these metrics.

我們相信這兩個指標都有成長空間。

Our whole history with Premier Agent has been about continual business model innovation and testing in service of long-term growth maximization and customer satisfaction.

我們與 Premier Agent 合作的整個歷史就是不斷進行業務模式創新和測試，以實現長期成長最大化和客戶滿意度。

Since introducing the Best of Zillow program and focusing Premier Agent on connection rates, service quality and most importantly transaction conversion, we've seen significant improvements in our business fundamentals.

自從推出 Best of Zillow 計劃並將 Premier Agent 重點關注連接率、服務品質以及最重要的交易轉換率以來，我們已經看到我們的業務基礎有了顯著改善。

Specifically, we've had to dig in on the capabilities and the productivity of our Premier Agent partners who are best at converting leads into transactions.

具體來說，我們必須深入研究最擅長將潛在客戶轉化為交易的高級代理商合作夥伴的能力和生產力。

And this is why we are expanding our Flex tests with high-performing partners in select markets.

這就是為什麼我們與選定市場中的高績效合作夥伴擴大 Flex 測試的原因。

We're learning that conversion is a key driver of performance, regardless of whether the monetization model is Flex or our larger market-based pricing model.

我們了解到，無論獲利模式是 Flex 還是我們更大的基於市場的定價模式，轉換率都是績效的關鍵驅動因素。

So as we continue to test and grow Premier Agent, I ultimately think of Premier Agent business models we will deploy as an optimization problem and opportunity.

因此，當我們繼續測試和發展 Premier Agent 時，我最終認為我們將部署的 Premier Agent 業務模型是一個最佳化問題和機會。

We continue to be methodical in our tests, and we are making progress.

我們繼續有條不紊地進行測試，並且正在取得進展。

The improving performance of Premier Agent has provided a strong foundation of cash flows for the rapid expansion and growth we've seen in our Homes segment.

Premier Agent 不斷改善的表現為我們在住宅領域的快速擴張和成長提供了堅實的現金流基礎。

We delivered more than $603 million in revenue in Q4 from Zillow Offers, up from just $41 million in Q4 of 2018.

第四季度，我們透過 Zillow Offers 實現了超過 6.03 億美元的收入，而 2018 年第四季僅為 4,100 萬美元。

Our outperformance in Homes was driven by strong consumer demand as well as applying learnings to inform our resale strategies.

我們在住宅領域的優異表現是由強勁的消費者需求以及應用經驗教訓來指導我們的轉售策略所推動的。

We also experienced less impact from seasonality than we anticipated.

我們受到的季節性影響也比我們預期的要小。

In Q4, we sold over 1,900 homes and purchased nearly 1,790 homes.

第四季度，我們售出了 1,900 多套房屋，購買了近 1,790 套房屋。

And we ended the quarter with 2,707 Homes in inventory.

本季結束時，我們的庫存房屋數量為 2,707 套。

Since the inception of Zillow Offers, we purchased approximately 7,200 homes and sold 4,500 homes.

自 Zillow Offers 推出以來，我們購買了約 7,200 套房屋並出售了 4,500 套房屋。

It's still early days, but we are learning as we grow, and consumer signals are strong.

現在還處於早期階段，但我們正在成長中學習，而且消費者訊號很強烈。

In all, we launched a remarkable 17 new markets in 2019, most of which came online in the back half of the year and all on or ahead of schedule, bringing total ZO markets at the end of January to 23.

總的來說，我們在 2019 年推出了 17 個令人矚目的新市場，其中大部分在下半年上線，並且全部按計劃或提前上線，使 1 月底 ZO 市場總數達到 23 個。

Additionally, we remain on track to be in at least 26 markets by midyear, approximating a national footprint.

此外，我們仍有望在年中之前進入至少 26 個市場，覆蓋全國。

For 2020, we expect continued strong growth in the ZO business will be driven primarily by servicing high demand in young existing markets and less so on opening new markets.

2020 年，我們預計 ZO 業務的持續強勁成長將主要透過滿足年輕的現有市場的高需求來推動，而不是透過開拓新市場來推動。

Zillow Offers is the first time we've owned the transaction, which we know is a hub from which multiple other adjacent transaction services hinge.

Zillow Offers 是我們第一次擁有這筆交易，我們知道它是多個其他相鄰交易服務的樞紐。

And we're gaining traction in building out those adjacent services as well.

我們在建構這些相鄰服務方面也取得了進展。

We are progressing with Zillow Home Loans and have confidence that our new mortgages management along with 2019 and 2020 investments will set the stage for future growth acceleration.

我們正在 Zillow Home Loans 方面取得進展，並相信我們新的抵押貸款管理以及 2019 年和 2020 年的投資將為未來的加速成長奠定基礎。

And as another important adjacency, in 2019, we stood up a new title and escrow business, Zillow Closing Services, to further support Zillow Offers expansion and deliver an integrated transaction experience for our customers.

作為另一個重要的鄰接，我們在 2019 年推出了新的產權和託管業務 Zillow Closing Services，以進一步支援 Zillow Offers 擴展並為我們的客戶提供整合的交易體驗。

A recent Zillow Offers success story is Cathy and Robert Bowen of Atlanta, who wanted a larger home that could accommodate their growing family of 7 and someday their parents as they age.

最近 Zillow Offers 的一個成功案例是來自亞特蘭大的 Cathy 和 Robert Bowen，他們想要一個更大的房子，既能容納他們不斷成長的 7 口之家，也能容納他們年老的父母。

A Premier Agent helped them find a big yellow house with hardwood floors that they love, but it was at the top of their budget range.

一位高級經紀人幫助他們找到了一棟他們喜歡的黃色大房子，鋪著硬木地板，但這超出了他們的預算範圍。

They couldn't make the down payment without selling their current home, and a traditional sale wasn't feasible with 2 full time jobs, 5 kids and a dog.

如果不賣掉現在的房子，他們就無法支付首付，而傳統的出售方式對於擁有 2 份全職工作、5 個孩子和一隻狗的人來說是不可行的。

They turned to Zillow Offers and were able to time the 2 transactions on the same day, allowing them to move with confidence and convenience.

他們求助於 Zillow Offers，並能夠在同一天完成兩筆交易，讓他們充滿信心和便利地進行交易。

It fit together just like a jigsaw puzzle Cathy said.

它就像凱西說的拼圖遊戲一樣拼在一起。

Their successful trade in is a story that's now playing out for thousands of families around the country.

他們的成功交易現在正在為全國成千上萬的家庭上演。

This is fundamentally why we are here, and these success stories prove to me and our team that people are ready for a better way.

這就是我們在這裡的根本原因，這些成功故事向我和我們的團隊證明，人們已經準備好迎接更好的方式。

I don't say this here but -- it doesn't say it on here, but there's a link from the shareholder letter to that video as well.

我不會在這裡說這個，但是 - 它不會在這裡說，但是股東信中也有一個到該視頻的連結。

And if you're only going to watch one video, watch this one.

如果您只想觀看一個視頻，請觀看此視頻。

It's a great story.

這是一個很棒的故事。

Okay.

好的。

For 2020, we expect to continue to grow and gain leverage on our core IMT segment operations and use those EBITDA profits to fund our promising high-growth transaction-oriented businesses of Zillow Offers, Zillow Home Loans and Zillow Closing Services.

2020 年，我們預計將繼續成長並獲得對核心 IMT 部門業務的影響力，並利用這些 EBITDA 利潤為我們前景光明的高成長交易導向型 Zillow Offers、Zillow Home Loans 和 Zillow Closing Services 業務提供資金。

Our team is focused on 4 key growth strategies: one, grow Premier Agent while maximizing revenue and profit yield per lead; two, scale Zillow Offers and increase transactions while gaining operating leverage; three, increase company-wide operational efficiency and improve profitability; and four, continue to invest in adjacent services to deliver a seamless integrated customer experience and expand our total addressable market.

我們的團隊專注於 4 個關鍵成長策略：一是發展高階代理，同時最大限度地提高每條銷售線索的收入和利潤率；第二，擴大 Zillow Offers 規模並增加交易，同時獲得營運槓桿；三、提高全公司營運效率，提高獲利能力；第四，繼續投資相鄰服務，以提供無縫整合的客戶體驗並擴大我們的整體目標市場。

In all, I'd characterize 2019 as tumultuously remarkable.

總而言之，我認為 2019 年是非凡的一年。

Personally, it was one of the most challenging years of my career.

就我個人而言，這是我職業生涯中最具挑戰性的幾年之一。

And we've been working to -- as we've been working to simultaneously evolve the hearts and minds of our employees, our industry partners and our investor base while reinvigorating our core businesses and dramatically expanding new ones.

我們一直在努力——就像我們一直在努力同時發展我們的員工、我們的行業合作夥伴和我們的投資者基礎的心靈和思想一樣，同時重振我們的核心業務並大幅擴展新業務。

While we have miles to go before we sleep and the way will surely be lumpy, the great progress we've made in a short period of time gives me confidence that Zillow Group is in the pull position in the race to replatform the largest industry.

雖然我們在睡覺前還有很長的路要走，而且道路肯定會崎嶇不平，但我們在短時間內取得的巨大進展讓我相信 Zillow Group 在重塑最大行業平台的競賽中處於領先地位。

Our talented team here is making it happen.

我們才華橫溢的團隊正在讓這一切成為現實。

But I also want to thank you, our investors, who have given me and the team the space and support to turn the page and to move to the next exciting chapter in the story of Zillow.

但我還要感謝我們的投資者，他們為我和團隊提供了空間和支持，讓我翻開新的一頁，進入 Zillow 故事的下一個令人興奮的篇章。

Before I turn the call over to Allen to take you through our numbers and outlook, I want to acknowledge his leadership and impact on defining the more rigorous, planful and accountable operating culture of Zillow 2.0.

在我將電話轉給 Allen 向您介紹我們的數據和前景之前，我要感謝他在定義 Zillow 2.0 更嚴格、有計劃和負責任的營運文化方面的領導力和影響。

It's great to be sitting next to you, Allen.

很高興坐在你旁邊，艾倫。

Thank you, Rich.

謝謝你，里奇。

It's great to be here.

很高興來到這裡。

I'm going to quickly summarize a few key financial results, starting with the fourth quarter and then moving to our full year results.

我將快速總結一些關鍵的財務業績，從第四季度開始，然後轉向我們的全年業績。

Overall, we're pleased with our Q4 and full year 2019 results as we exceeded the high end of our expectations for our revenue and EBITDA outlook on both the consolidated basis and across all of our segments.

總體而言，我們對 2019 年第四季度和全年業績感到滿意，因為我們在合併基礎上和所有部門的收入和 EBITDA 前景都超出了我們的預期上限。

We reported Q4 consolidated revenue of $944 million, up $579 million or 158% year-over-year.

我們報告第四季合併收入為 9.44 億美元，年增 5.79 億美元，即 158%。

The outperformance in revenue was due primarily to strong demand in our Homes segment as we applied learnings to inform our retail strategies and as we saw less seasonal impact than expected on home sales.

收入的優異表現主要是由於我們的住宅領域的強勁需求，因為我們應用所學到的知識來為我們的零售策略提供信息，並且我們發現季節性對房屋銷售的影響小於預期。

Consolidated Q4 EBITDA outperformed our expectations at a loss of $3.2 million and was driven by not only the health of our IMT business but also the operational rigor across the organization as all 3 of our segments delivered better-than-expected EBITDA.

第四季綜合EBITDA 超出了我們的預期，虧損320 萬美元，這不僅是由我們IMT 業務的健康狀況推動的，也是由整個組織的運營嚴謹性推動的，因為我們所有3 個部門的EBITDA 都很好於預期。

IMT segment revenue grew 6% year-over-year in Q4 to $320 million, exceeding our outlook.

第四季 IMT 部門營收年增 6%，達到 3.2 億美元，超出了我們的預期。

Premier Agent revenue accelerated more than we expected in the quarter to $234 million, up 6% year-over-year from 3% growth year-over-year in Q3 and what was essentially flat growth in Q2.

本季 Premier Agent 營收成長超過我們的預期，達到 2.34 億美元，年成長 6%，第三季年增 3%，第二季基本持平。

Our decision to partner more closely with the best agent partners is not surprisingly yielding strong results with connections, customer satisfaction and agent retention all on a clear upward trajectory.

我們決定與最好的代理商合作夥伴進行更密切的合作，這毫不奇怪地產生了強勁的成果，聯繫、客戶滿意度和代理商保留率均呈現明顯上升趨勢。

These inputs are key drivers on why MBP same-store sales, monthly recurring revenue growth accelerated at the end of December to 12%.

這些投入是 MBP 同店銷售、每月經常性收入成長在 12 月底加速至 12% 的關鍵驅動因素。

As we did last quarter, we provided same-store sales for monthly recurring revenue for our non-Flex markets, which we estimate represented approximately 95% of our Premier Agent monthly recurring revenue at the end of 2019.

正如我們上季度所做的那樣，我們為非 Flex 市場提供了每月經常性收入的同店銷售，我們估計這佔 2019 年底我們的 Premier Agent 每月經常性收入的約 95%。

IMT segment EBITDA margins expanded over 800 basis points in Q4 year-over-year to 27.4% and exceeded the high end of our expectations.

第四季度，IMT 部門 EBITDA 利潤率年增超過 800 個基點，達到 27.4%，超出了我們預期的上限。

Our focus on cost discipline and operational rigor across the company is yielding tangible results.

我們對整個公司的成本紀律和營運嚴謹性的關注正在產生實際的成果。

Total IMT segment operating expenses declined nearly $10 million year-over-year in Q4, excluding the impact of certain onetime items we recorded in Q4 2018 as we continue to focus on delivering operating leverage.

第四季度，IMT 部門營運支出總額年減近 1000 萬美元，不包括我們在 2018 年第四季記錄的某些一次性項目的影響，因為我們繼續專注於提供營運槓桿。

Moving to full year 2019.

轉至 2019 年全年。

In the full year 2019, consolidated revenue grew to $2.7 billion, which more than doubled from $1.3 billion in 2018, primarily as a result of the rapid expansion of our Homes segment.

2019 年全年，綜合收入成長至 27 億美元，比 2018 年的 13 億美元成長了一倍多，這主要得益於我們住宅業務的快速擴張。

Consolidated EBITDA for the year was $39 million as we invested our IMT segment profits into our Homes and Mortgages business.

由於我們將 IMT 部門的利潤投資於我們的房屋和抵押貸款業務，因此本年度的綜合 EBITDA 為 3,900 萬美元。

2019 IMT segment revenue was $1.3 billion, and IMT segment EBITDA was $304 million.

2019年IMT部門營收為13億美元，IMT部門EBITDA為3.04億美元。

Put that in context, we grew revenue by 6% year-over-year while growing EBITDA 27%, expanding margins by 381 basis points.

綜合來看，我們的營收年增了 6%，EBITDA 成長了 27%，利潤率擴大了 381 個基點。

Premier Agent revenue grew 3% during 2019 to $924 million.

2019 年，Premier Agent 營收成長 3%，達到 9.24 億美元。

We were pleased with the progress to stabilize the Premier Agent business in the first half of the year and the reacceleration in the second half of the year.

我們對上半年高級代理業務的穩定進展和下半年的重新加速感到高興。

Homes segment revenue was $1.4 billion for full year 2019, up from just $52 million a year ago.

2019 年全年住宅業務收入為 14 億美元，而一年前僅為 5,200 萬美元。

As I've stated on previous earnings calls, during this transformational time at Zillow Group, my focus as CFO continues to be on establishing processes and mechanisms in support of 3 key priorities, scaling our new businesses, executing within our IMT segment in order to fund investments into the new segments along with additional growth opportunities and implementing focused cost discipline and operational rigor across the company as we scale.

正如我在先前的財報電話會議上所說，在Zillow Group 的轉型時期，我作為財務長的重點仍然是建立支援3 個關鍵優先事項的流程和機制、擴展我們的新業務、在我們的IMT部門內執行，以便隨著我們規模的擴大，為新細分市場的投資以及額外的成長機會提供資金，並在整個公司範圍內實施集中的成本控制和嚴格的營運。

I am pleased with how we executed on these priorities in 2019 and believe these efforts have positioned us for even stronger IMT segment EBITDA performance in 2020 to fund our investments in new businesses.

我對 2019 年我們在這些優先事項上的執行情況感到滿意，並相信這些努力使我們能夠在 2020 年實現更強勁的 IMT 部門 EBITDA 業績，為我們對新業務的投資提供資金。

Before moving to your questions, I'd like to provide some select thoughts around our Q1 and full year 2020 outlook in comparison to 2019.

在回答大家的問題之前，我想就 2020 年第一季和全年展望（與 2019 年相比）提供一些精選想法。

Due to the recovery and strong trends we are seeing in our Premier Agent business, we expect Premier Agent revenue growth to accelerate further in Q1.

由於我們在高級代理業務中看到的復甦和強勁趨勢，我們預計第一季高級代理收入成長將進一步加速。

We expect Q1 Premier Agent revenue to be between $238 million to $243 million, an increase of 10% year-over-year at the midpoint of the outlook range compared to 6% growth in Q4 and 2% growth in Q1 2019.

我們預計第一季高級代理收入將在2.38 億美元至2.43 億美元之間，以展望範圍的中位數計算，年增10%，而2019 年第四季的成長為6%，第一季的成長為2%。

This accelerating revenue growth is our first quarter outlook -- in our first quarter outlook includes the net impact of delayed revenue from Flex tests.

這種加速的營收成長是我們第一季的展望——我們第一季的展望包括 Flex 測試延遲收入的淨影響。

Without the impact of Flex tests, we estimate Q1 year-over-year Premier Agent revenue growth would be approximately 14% at the midpoint of our outlook range.

如果沒有 Flex 測試的影響，我們預計第一季 Premier Agent 營收將年增約 14%（處於我們展望範圍的中點）。

Turning to IMT margins.

轉向 IMT 利潤。

In Q1, we are forecasting IMT EBITDA margins to expand 90 to 120 basis points to between 21.6% to 22.7% despite a couple of onetime items that benefit -- benefited Q1 prior year margins by 290 basis points.

在第一季度，我們預計IMT EBITDA 利潤率將擴大90 至120 個基點，達到21.6% 至22.7%，儘管有幾個一次性項目受益——使上一年第一季的利潤率提高了290 個基點。

In the Homes segment, we expect another year of strong growth in 2020 as we apply learnings, grow into the 23 markets we've opened in the last 20 months and launch a handful of additional markets.

在住宅領域，我們預計 2020 年將再次強勁成長，因為我們將應用所學知識，拓展到過去 20 個月內開闢的 23 個市場，並推出一些其他市場。

Given how new this business is and our continuous testing and learning, we will continue to provide a quarterly outlook for Homes segment in 2020.

鑑於這項業務的新穎性以及我們不斷的測試和學習，我們將繼續提供 2020 年住宅細分市場的季度展望。

In Q1, we expect Homes segment revenue to be between $675 million and $700 million.

我們預計第一季住宅業務收入將在 6.75 億美元至 7 億美元之間。

Homes segment EBITDA in Q1 is expected to be between a loss of $95 million to a loss of $85 million.

第一季住宅業務 EBITDA 預計將虧損 9,500 萬美元至 8,500 萬美元。

We expect to maintain the current unit economic guardrails of plus or minus 200 basis points on average return on homes sold before interest expense as we continue to test and innovate.

隨著我們繼續測試和創新，我們預計將目前的單位經濟護欄維持在利息費用前銷售房屋平均回報率正負 200 個基點的水平。

With regard to our Mortgages segment, the new management team is in place and is making progress to develop our technology platform and expand operations of -- expand the operations of Zillow Home Loans.

關於我們的抵押貸款部門，新的管理團隊已經就位，並正在開發我們的技術平台和擴大 Zillow Home Loans 的業務方面取得進展。

As we work through this transition, we are moving the Mortgages segment to quarterly guidance, consistent with our approach to the Homes segment.

在我們完成這項轉變的過程中，我們正在將抵押貸款部門調整為季度指導，這與我們對房屋部門的做法一致。

As Rich mentioned, in our Flex markets, we are seeing positive signals that our most productive agents convert transactions better than the average.

正如 Rich 所提到的，在我們的 Flex 市場中，我們看到了積極的信號，即我們最高效的代理商能夠比平均水平更好地完成交易。

Because of this, we will begin to expand our Flex test methodically with high-performing partners in select markets in the second quarter of 2020.

因此，我們將於 2020 年第二季開始與選定市場的高績效合作夥伴一起有條不紊地擴展我們的 Flex 測試。

Our full year outlook includes the potential for additional testing in the second half of the year if we decide to expand Flex further.

如果我們決定進一步擴展 Flex，我們的全年展望包括下半年進行額外測試的可能性。

For full year 2020, we expect Premier Agent revenue to be between $980 million to $1.005 billion, up 7% over 2019 at the midpoint of our outlook range.

對於 2020 年全年，我們預計 Premier Agent 營收將在 9.8 億美元至 10.05 億美元之間，比 2019 年成長 7%，處於我們展望範圍的中位數。

This outlook range includes the net impact of delayed revenue from the Flex test I just discussed.

這個展望範圍包括我剛才討論的 Flex 測試延遲收入的淨影響。

Without this impact, we estimate the 2020 year-over-year Premier Agent revenue growth would be approximately 10% at the midpoint of our guidance range.

如果沒有這種影響，我們估計 2020 年高級代理收入年增約 10%（在我們指導範圍的中點）。

We expect IMT segment EBITDA margins to expand an additional 300 to 400 basis points in 2020 to between 26.7% to 27.9% for the full year and IMT EBITDA to grow 24% for the full year at the midpoint of our outlook range.

我們預計 IMT 部門 EBITDA 利潤率將在 2020 年額外擴大 300 至 400 個基點，全年達到 26.7% 至 27.9% 之間，IMT EBITDA 全年將成長 24%，處於我們展望範圍的中點。

Please note that the pace of investment is in our control to execute our key growth strategies as Rich discussed previously.

請注意，正如 Rich 之前討論的那樣，投資的節奏由我們控制，以執行我們的關鍵成長策略。

While we are not providing outlook on consolidated 2020 revenue or EBITDA, philosophically, we are managing towards a breakeven range as we use the contributions from our IMT segment to help fund the expansion and growth of our Homes and segment -- Homes and Mortgages segments.

雖然我們沒有提供2020 年綜合收入或EBITDA 的前景，但從理論上講，我們正在努力實現盈虧平衡，因為我們利用IMT 部門的貢獻來幫助為我們的房屋和房屋和抵押貸款部門的擴張和增長提供資金。

Furthermore, our balance sheet remains strong and provides a significant flexibility to take advantage of market opportunities to gain scale and operating leverage in our new businesses.

此外，我們的資產負債表仍然強勁，並提供了巨大的靈活性，可以利用市場機會來擴大新業務的規模和營運槓桿。

We ended the year with $2.4 billion in cash and investments along with $900 million in undrawn credit facilities and lines of credit to further support the growth of Zillow Offers and Zillow Home Loans.

截至年底，我們擁有 24 億美元的現金和投資，以及 9 億美元的未提取信貸額度和信貸額度，以進一步支持 Zillow Offers 和 Zillow Home Loans 的成長。

We remain mindful of our cost of capital, and we invest in these -- as we invest in these opportunities and will continue to prudently manage expenses.

我們仍然關注我們的資本成本，我們投資於這些機會，就像我們投資這些機會一樣，並將繼續審慎管理開支。

In all, we are very pleased with our Q4 and full year 2019 performance, the momentum we're carrying into 2020 and the progress we're making towards streamlining real estate transactions to better help our customers unlock the next chapter of their lives.

總而言之，我們對 2019 年第四季和全年的業績、我們進入 2020 年的勢頭以及我們在簡化房地產交易以更好地幫助我們的客戶開啟生活的下一個篇章方面取得的進展感到非常滿意。

With that, operator, we'll open the line for questions.

接線員，我們將開通提問熱線。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Ron Josey with JMP Securities.

（操作員指令）我們的第一個問題來自 JMP 證券的 Ron Josey。

Lots to talk about here for sure.

這裡肯定有很多話要說。

But maybe, Rich and Allen, I wanted to focus a little bit on the just Premier Agent business at first with guidance calling for revenue growth accelerating -- the acceleration to continue and I think 7.5% growth at the midpoint.

但也許，里奇和艾倫，我想先稍微關註一下高級代理業務，並提出收入加速增長的指導——這種加速將持續下去，我認為中點將增長 7.5%。

I hear you on agent retention rates and improving CSAT scores.

我聽到您談論座席保留率和提高 CSAT 分數。

But with the unknowns around Flex and just rolling out to new markets in 2Q and maybe even more markets in the back half of the year, just -- can you just talk a little bit more about the confidence in that accelerating growth in Premier Agents, which clearly is the bread and butter at least, what underlines the investments going forward.

但是，鑑於 Flex 的未知數，以及在第二季度向新市場推出，甚至可能在下半年向更多市場推出，您能否多談談對 Premier Agents 加速增長的信心，這顯然至少是麵包和黃油，也是未來投資的重點。

And if I could sneak just a follow-up on Flex.

如果我能偷偷地跟進一下 Flex 的話。

Rich, you mentioned in the letter high-performing agents are just converting leads at a higher rate.

Rich，您在信中提到，高績效代理商只是以更高的速度轉換潛在客戶。

Just any additional insights there would be helpful.

只要有任何額外的見解都會有幫助。

Okay.

好的。

Ron, this is Rich.

榮恩，這是里奇。

Let me let Allen start out on that one, and then I'll jump in.

讓我讓艾倫先講這個，然後我再介入。

Yes.

是的。

Thanks for the question.

謝謝你的提問。

So yes, I'll reiterate.

所以是的，我會重申。

I know you mentioned it, but our confidence really does come from the improvements we've seen in some of the underlying inputs over the past 6 months.

我知道您提到過這一點，但我們的信心確實來自於我們在過去 6 個月中看到的一些基礎投入的改進。

Both connections and CSAT metrics are up substantially, and our retention has been trending near the highest levels ever.

連結數和 CSAT 指標都大幅上升，我們的留存率一直接近歷史最高水準。

So while -- what I would say is as we look to and what's incorporated in the guidance, it's still early on Flex.

因此，儘管我想說的是，正如我們所期待的以及指南中所包含的內容，Flex 還處於早期階段。

We thought it was appropriate to include some flexibility to increase our testing in Flex.

我們認為包含一些彈性以增加 Flex 中的測試是合適的。

We control the Flex testing.

我們控制 Flex 測試。

And some of the early signs are leading us to feel confident that our higher-performing partners can provide returns and be accretive earlier than a full market flip.

一些早期跡象讓我們充滿信心，我們的業績較高的合作夥伴能夠在市場全面翻轉之前提供回報並實現增值。

But again, given just the basic inputs of our core business, which is still the majority of the revenue that we report from PA, these trends along with continuing product innovations, investments we're making in connections and operational improvements are driving strong forward indicators.

但同樣，考慮到我們核心業務的基本投入（這仍然是我們從 PA 報告的收入的大部分），這些趨勢以及持續的產品創新、我們在連接方面的投資和營運改進正在推動強勁的前瞻性指標。

So we feel very comfortable.

所以我們覺得很舒服。

The guidance range we provided gives us the ability to continue to test a variety of monetization models, including Flex, while still supporting this core MBP business.

我們提供的指導範圍使我們能夠繼續測試包括 Flex 在內的各種貨幣化模型，同時仍支援這項核心 MBP 業務。

And yes, I mean, the inputs are -- all the inputs are improving.

是的，我的意思是，所有的投入都在改善。

On the high-performing partners question and providing more clarity, it's really what it is.

關於高績效合作夥伴的問題並提供更多的清晰度，這確實是事實。

It's unsurprisingly when we find partners who use our software, understand our system, we explain our system well, and they -- and give good customer service and convert those customers into buyers, transactors of homes, those are the partners we're looking for.

當我們找到使用我們的軟體、了解我們的系統、我們很好地解釋我們的系統的合作夥伴，並且他們提供良好的客戶服務並將這些客戶轉化為房屋的買家、交易者時，這並不奇怪，這些就是我們正在尋找的合作夥伴。

And we are testing and learning different things in different markets.

我們正在不同的市場測試和學習不同的東西。

It's too early to make any broad generalizations to characterize what those partners look like, but we're finding them.

現在做出任何廣泛的概括來描述這些合作夥伴的特徵還為時過早，但我們正在尋找他們。

We're finding enough of them.

我們已經找到足夠多的人了。

We're seeing enough good results to continue to methodically expand our Flex tests.

我們看到了足夠好的結果，可以繼續有條不紊地擴展我們的 Flex 測試。

I would say we're looking for high-performance partners across the universe of PA, too.

我想說，我們也在整個 PA 領域尋找高效能合作夥伴。

Flex is a very small part of the overall Premier Agent business.

Flex 只佔整個 Premier Agent 業務的一小部分。

And the whole -- the company's new focus on the transaction itself and what it takes to get a customer into a new home has actually brought goodness to the whole of the Premier Agent business as well and taught us how to focus on what customers really want.

整體而言，公司對交易本身以及如何讓客戶入住新家的新關注實際上也為整個高級代理業務帶來了好處，並教導我們如何專注於客戶真正想要的東西。

So...

所以...

Our next question comes from Mark Mahaney with RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部的馬克‧馬哈尼 (Mark Mahaney)。

I had 2 questions on the Homes business.

我有兩個關於房屋業務的問題。

But Rich, thanks for quoting Bob Seger.

但是 Rich，感謝您引用鮑勃·西格的話。

On the Homes business, the one thing that looks a lot is that there was a sequential decline in homes inventory.

在房屋業務方面，最引人注目的一件事是房屋庫存持續下降。

So could you not find enough homes that you wanted to purchase?

那麼您是否找不到足夠的您想要購買的房屋？

Is it harder for you?

對你來說更難嗎？

Is there some reason?

有什麼原因嗎？

Is that a more competitive market?

這是一個競爭更激烈的市場嗎？

Just explain why this is the first time in which you -- that kind of that -- those 2 numbers have flipped, homes sold and homes purchased.

只要解釋為什麼這是你第一次——類似的——這兩個數字發生翻轉，即房屋出售和房屋購買。

And then secondly, in the homes, thanks for the business economics, that kind of drill down is really valuable.

其次，在家庭中，感謝商業經濟學，這種深入研究確實很有價值。

And I know it's a small part of the cost equation here.

我知道這只是成本方程式的一小部分。

You've got this nice leverage in home acquisition cost, but you've got this deleverage and renovation costs.

你在購屋成本上有很好的槓桿作用，但你也有去槓桿化和裝修成本。

And I don't know why that would be, but that's kind of offsetting everything and kind of driving you.

我不知道為什麼會這樣，但這有點抵消一切並推動你。

I know it's within your guardrails, but it did turn your return on homes sold negative before interest expense.

我知道這在你的護欄之內，但它確實使你的房屋出售回報率（扣除利息費用）為負。

Just explain what's happening with the renovation costs.

只需解釋一下裝修費用的情況即可。

Yes.

是的。

Okay.

好的。

Okay.

好的。

Great.

偉大的。

Maybe I'll turn the second one, Mark, over to Allen on that.

馬克，也許我會把第二個問題交給艾倫。

But on the first part of your question, I guess I'd deflect first and say we had remarkable growth in selling our Zillow-owned homes, right?

但關於你問題的第一部分，我想我會先轉移話題，說我們在出售 Zillow 擁有的房屋方面取得了顯著的增長，對吧？

It's $603 million in revenue.

收入為 6.03 億美元。

That was up, I don't know, almost 15x from the year before.

我不知道，這個數字幾乎是前一年的 15 倍。

So it's turned into a really big number, and that's pretty remarkable.

所以它變成了一個非常大的數字，這是非常了不起的。

On the purchase deceleration or decline that you asked about, we actually planned for purchases to be down sequentially going into Q4 due to seasonality.

關於您提到的採購減速或下降，我們實際上計劃由於季節性原因，進入第四季度採購量會依次下降。

Q4 is a slow -- historically a slow selling season.

第四季是一個緩慢的銷售季節——歷史上是一個銷售緩慢的季節。

And so we were appropriately cautious heading into the quarter, and we fulfilled against our plan to do that.

因此，我們在進入本季度時採取了適當的謹慎態度，並且我們實現了我們的計劃。

So that was not a surprise.

所以這並不奇怪。

What did surprise us a bit was how good our resale volume was.

讓我們有點驚訝的是我們的轉售量有多好。

It was much higher than expected.

這比預期要高得多。

It made us a bigger net seller than we actually expected.

這使我們成為比我們實際預期更大的淨賣家。

And I would say this is a credit to applying all these learnings we're gaining.

我想說，這是應用我們所獲得的所有這些知識的功勞。

The unit numbers in this business are starting to build.

該行業的單位數量正在開始增加。

They're still small but they're starting to build.

它們仍然很小，但已經開始建造。

And each new unit that we transact, it pumps data and learning into the machine and people.

我們處理的每個新單元都會將資料和學習注入機器和人員。

And we're getting better at pricing homes.

我們在為房屋定價方面做得越來越好。

We're getting better at price drop strategy.

我們在降價策略方面做得越來越好。

We're getting better at all the stuff that is required to price and sell the home.

我們在定價和出售房屋所需的所有方面都做得越來越好。

And so we were able to move a lot more homes than we anticipated.

因此，我們能夠搬遷的房屋比我們預期的要多得多。

I guess I'd say looking forward, because we still are in the early days, most of our markets are really young, we expect it to be -- it won't be a nice, clean -- it will be a lumpy path.

我想我會說展望未來，因為我們仍處於早期階段，我們的大多數市場都非常年輕，我們預計它不會是一條美好、乾淨的道路，這將是一條崎嶇不平的道路。

It won't be a nice, clean, linear thing, which is one of the reasons we're only guiding one quarter out.

這不會是一件美好、乾淨、線性的事情，這也是我們只指導四分之一的原因之一。

Now on the renovation deleverage, I'll turn it over to Allen.

現在關於改造去槓桿，我將把它交給艾倫。

Yes.

是的。

Mark, it's Allen Parker.

馬克，我是艾倫‧帕克。

Yes.

是的。

So as you called out, renovations as a percentage of average revenue was 4.69% in Q4 versus 4.02%, a negative -- basically an increase of 67 basis points quarter-over-quarter.

因此，正如您所指出的，第四季度裝修佔平均收入的百分比為 4.69%，而第四季度為 4.02%，為負數，基本上比上一季增加了 67 個基點。

I'll call out that we believe there's opportunity across all 4 lines.

我要指出的是，我們相信所有 4 條線都存在機會。

We did get 21 basis points improvement in home acquisition costs.

我們的購屋成本確實降低了 21 個基點。

I wouldn't read too much of anything in the quarter-over-quarter trends right now as we're testing and iterating across all of these markets.

由於我們正在所有這些市場上進行測試和迭代，因此我現在不會閱讀太多有關季度環比趨勢的內容。

What I will say is we have a team that's very focused on what's the right amount to spend on renovation to make the home great for our customer but without overdoing it and spending money on things we don't need to.

我要說的是，我們有一個團隊非常注重在裝修上花費多少資金，以使房屋適合我們的客戶，但又不會過度裝修，也不會把錢花在我們不需要的東西上。

So we've got an opportunity.

所以我們有機會。

We obviously -- in total, we were 48 basis points negative as a percentage of revenue and well within our, as you mentioned, our plus or minus 200 basis points.

顯然，我們總共佔收入百分比為負 48 個基點，正如您所提到的，我們的正負 200 個基點完全在我們的範圍內。

I wouldn't read too much into changes, but that's definitely an area we're focused on, in renovation, although we're focused across all 4 expense lines as well.

我不會過度解讀變化，但這絕對是我們在翻新過程中關注的一個領域，儘管我們也關注所有 4 個支出項目。

Next question comes from Justin Patterson with Raymond James.

下一個問題來自賈斯汀·帕特森和雷蒙德·詹姆斯。

Great.

偉大的。

A couple on Flex.

Flex 上的一對。

Could you talk about your learnings in 2019, the markets you're expanding to in 2020 and on the puts and takes around further expansion?

您能否談談您在 2019 年的經驗教訓、您在 2020 年要拓展的市場以及圍繞進一步擴張的看跌期權和看跌期權？

And then finally, I wanted to go back to Flex partners and extensibility.

最後，我想回到 Flex 合作夥伴和可擴展性。

Is there anything you can do to help nudge that general agent population toward becoming higher performers in Flex?

您可以做些什麼來幫助推動一般座席群體成為 Flex 中表現更好的人嗎？

Or do you think it's a little more binary?

還是你認為它比較二元化？

It simply works for some but not everyone.

它僅適用於某些人，但不適用於所有人。

Okay.

好的。

Yes.

是的。

I mean I think our big learnings for PA overall, but Flex included, for 2019 is how, regardless of business model, we are looking to, like any other funnel transaction business, increase conversion and increase take rate, increase yield, okay?

我的意思是，我認為我們在2019 年從PA 整體（包括Flex）學到的重要經驗是，無論業務模式如何，我們都希望像任何其他漏斗交易業務一樣，提高轉換率、提高採用率、提高產量，好嗎？

And we have had an intuition that there's upside in those 2 big levers for quite some time, and we're starting to actually -- we're starting to actually see that.

很長一段時間以來，我們一直有一種直覺，認為這兩個大槓桿有上行空間，而且我們開始真正看到這一點。

And we feel that both have room to grow.

我們認為兩者都有成長的空間。

The history of our Premier Agent business is a history of innovating on the business model, trying to drive those 2 levers.

我們的高階代理商業務的歷史就是一部創新商業模式、試圖推動這兩個槓桿的歷史。

And Flex is simply the latest instance of that innovation.

Flex 只是該創新的最新實例。

Now we had to start talking about it more specifically because of revenue recognition stuff, but it's really just an instance of that business model innovation.

現在，由於收入確認的問題，我們必須開始更具體地討論它，但這實際上只是商業模式創新的一個例子。

And we're pretty early.

而且我們還很早。

The first big Flex markets were really Phoenix and Atlanta, which we launched in Q4.

第一個大型 Flex 市場實際上是鳳凰城和亞特蘭大，我們在第四季度推出了這兩個市場。

So we're still really in the early learning phases of this.

所以我們仍然處於早期學習階段。

But we've seen interesting stuff on these interesting results with these high-performing -- high-performance partners to give us the confidence to expand the test.

但我們在這些高性能合作夥伴的這些有趣結果中看到了有趣的東西，這讓我們有信心擴大測試。

So we've seen that data.

我們已經看到了這些數據。

We're expanding methodically.

我們正在有條不紊地擴張。

Allen has taken you through what we think the impact will be going forward in 2020.

Allen 向您介紹了我們認為 2020 年將會產生的影響。

But we like what we're seeing.

但我們喜歡我們所看到的。

And I guess the customer-oriented person in me also really likes that with Flex, we drive a better conversion percentage, a better conversion rate, and that is the single greatest driver towards customer satisfaction.

我想我這個以客戶為導向的人也非常喜歡 Flex，我們可以提高轉換率，提高轉換率，這是實現客戶滿意度的最大動力。

And so we have happier customers as well.

因此，我們也擁有更滿意的客戶。

And so all of that is a long-winded way of me kind of saying we kind of look at this as an optimization problem now, and we're continuing to innovate on these models.

因此，所有這一切都是我的一種冗長的說法，我們現在將其視為一個最佳化問題，並且我們正在繼續對這些模型進行創新。

Yes.

是的。

And I'll just add, Rich, that in terms of the launch plan, our market plan, it's still very fluid.

Rich，我想補充一點，就發布計劃、我們的市場計劃而言，它仍然非常不穩定。

As Rich said, it's early.

正如里奇所說，現在還早。

We just felt that including the flexibility to have to expand testing as needed and calling out the impact of that in our 2020 outlook provided you guys with a little bit of stabilization on Flex' impact and gives us some of the flexibility to look at testing.

我們只是覺得，包括根據需要擴大測試的靈活性，並在我們的 2020 年展望中指出其影響，為你們提供了一點對 Flex 影響的穩定性，並為我們提供了一些考慮測試的靈活性。

I think initially, it's going to be a very small test that starts in Q2.

我認為最初這將是一個非常小的測試，從第二季開始。

But if we find that there are some benefits there and that we become accretive sooner, we've given ourselves some flexibility to expand those tests in Q3 and Q4, without having to come back with the guidance change, if that makes sense.

但是，如果我們發現那裡有一些好處並且我們更快地增加，我們就會給自己一些靈活性來在第三季度和第四季度擴大這些測試，而不必在指導改變時回來（如果這是有意義的）。

And Justin, I think your last part of the question was about nudge and binary.

賈斯汀，我認為你問題的最後一部分是關於推動和二進制的。

Is there something we can do to nudge?

我們可以做些什麼來推動嗎？

We think we have a ton of upside in mechanizing and professionalizing and applying software and modern technology to this nurture funnel, to the sales funnel.

我們認為，在機械化和專業化以及將軟體和現代技術應用於這個培育漏斗和銷售漏斗方面，我們有很大的優勢。

And there has been a woeful, an embarrassing lack of tech investment in the real estate industry for pretty much its history.

房地產行業在其歷史上幾乎一直缺乏科技投資，令人遺憾、令人尷尬。

And so we're waiting into -- a gnarly problem, yes.

所以我們正在等待——是的，這是一個棘手的問題。

But it's a really fertile field.

但這確實是一片沃土。

There's a long pent-up desire to kind of mechanize and professionalize through software this industry.

透過軟體使這個行業實現機械化和專業化，這是一個長期被壓抑的願望。

So we have a lot -- we see opportunity everywhere we look.

所以我們有很多——我們到處都看到機會。

Right.

正確的。

And it's fair to say that, that opportunity can be spread across our MBP business, the learnings.

公平地說，這個機會可以傳播到我們的 MBP 業務和學習中。

No question, yes.

毫無疑問，是的。

Which is a great lever.

這是一個很好的槓桿。

It's not just in Flex.

不僅僅是在 Flex 中。

Yes.

是的。

And honestly, like a lot of the learnings we're gaining are coming from our Zillow Offers business as well because we're actually the primary with our Zillow-owned homes and Zillow Offers.

老實說，我們獲得的許多經驗也來自我們的 Zillow Offers 業務，因為我們實際上是 Zillow 自有房屋和 Zillow Offers 的主要供應商。

And that has a way of focusing the mind and the development docket to when we're actually buying and selling homes, and we need to do it more efficiently, and we want to do it more efficiently.

當我們實際購買和出售房屋時，這可以讓我們的思想和開發工作集中在我們需要更有效地進行，並且我們希望更有效地進行。

We're actually utilizing some of those processes.

我們實際上正在利用其中一些流程。

We're learning from ZO for our PA business as well.

我們的 PA 業務也向 ZO 學習。

Our next question comes from Tom White with D.A. Davidson.

我們的下一個問題來自 Tom White 和 D.A.戴維森。

A very nice quarter.

一個非常美好的季度。

A couple on the guidance, if I may.

如果可以的話，請提供一些指導。

I guess what stood out most to me was the big ramp in implied EBITDA margins for the IMT segment.

我想對我來說最突出的是 IMT 細分市場隱含 EBITDA 利潤率的大幅上升。

I think the midpoint was like 27%, and the high end was something like 28%.

我認為中點大約是 27%，高階大約是 28%。

Can you just talk a bit more about the specific drivers of that leverage?

能否多談談該槓桿的具體驅動因素？

And then on the PA outlook for 2020, I think it sounds like back to double digits kind of ex Flex.

然後關於 2020 年 PA 前景，我認為這聽起來像是前 Flex 回到兩位數。

Maybe -- it sounds like you're leaning into these kind of top-performing agents.

也許——聽起來你正在傾向於這些表現最好的經紀人。

I'm trying to reconcile that with the comments about retention at peak levels.

我試圖將這一點與有關峰值保留率的評論相協調。

Just kind of curious about how some of the other not peak performing agents are behaving or reacting to the fact that they're presumably getting fewer leads or fewer connections.

只是有點好奇其他一些表現不佳的代理的行為或反應，因為他們可能獲得的線索或連接較少。

Okay.

好的。

Maybe, Allen, the first part?

艾倫，也許是第一部分？

Yes.

是的。

Yes.

是的。

Tom, thanks for the question.

湯姆，謝謝你的提問。

So before I get to 2020, I'm just going to step back to the performance we saw on margin expansion in 2019.

因此，在進入 2020 年之前，我將回顧我們在 2019 年看到的利潤率擴張的表現。

So again, in 2019, we were able to expand IMT margins by 381% -- 381 basis points, sorry, 381 basis points.

因此，2019 年，我們再次將 IMT 利潤率擴大了 381%——381 個基點，抱歉，381 個基點。

And that expansion is coming from and kind of reflects the fundamental health of our business.

這種擴張來自並反映了我們業務的基本健康狀況。

We have improved connections with our customers, which is leading to better retention rates with our agents and has driven accelerating revenues.

我們改善了與客戶的聯繫，從而提高了代理商的保留率，並推動了收入的成長。

And at the same time, our cost management is driving operational leverage.

同時，我們的成本管理正在推動營運槓桿。

So it's kind of a best of both worlds.

所以這是兩全其美的。

Our teams have been focused on prudent resource allocation and cost controls and has led to efficiencies in our operations and overhead.

我們的團隊一直專注於審慎的資源分配和成本控制，並提高了我們的營運和管理費用效率。

We are investing.

我們正在投資。

We're investing in connections.

我們正在投資人脈關係。

We're investing in products, but we've been able to fund those investments through prioritization and kind of a lot of discipline around discretionary spending.

我們正在投資產品，但我們已經能夠透過優先順序和圍繞可自由支配支出的大量紀律來為這些投資提供資金。

So with that 381 basis points of expansion, looking into accelerating growth and our outlook for 2020, we feel like we can continue those trends, continue to invest to grow the business but also yield 300 to 400 basis points of leverage in margin.

因此，透過 381 個基點的擴張，考慮到加速成長和我們對 2020 年的展望，我們覺得我們可以繼續這些趨勢，繼續投資以發展業務，同時也能產生 300 到 400 個基點的利潤率槓桿。

And you're right, at the midpoint, it's about 350 basis points of margin improvement and about 27.3% margin rate.

你是對的，在中點，利潤率提高了約 350 個基點，利潤率約為 27.3%。

So again, we made a lot of traction this year.

今年我們再次取得了巨大的進展。

And as we grow, and we can grow with investments but funding those internally and taking a hard look at discretionary spend, leverage efficiency, we feel really good about our opportunity to grow next year and to grow EBITDA at a rate of 2.5 to 3x our top line.

隨著我們的成長，我們可以透過投資來成長，但在內部為這些投資提供資金，並認真審視可自由支配支出、槓桿效率，我們對明年的成長機會感到非常滿意，並且EBITDA 的成長速度是我們的2.5 至3 倍。頂線。

And that's really one of the big themes of the year, Tom, is this operating leverage mindset and this prioritization mindset and this mindset where teams don't go into budgeting thinking, oh, what is my add to what I already have, how many more heads am I going to add.

湯姆，這確實是今年的大主題之一，就是這種營運槓桿心態和這種優先級心態，以及這種團隊不進行預算思考的心態，哦，我在已有的基礎上添加了什麼，有多少我要添加更多的頭。

It's actually having crisp priorities, OKRs against those priorities and having us all together make trade-offs all the way throughout the organization about what the priorities are.

實際上，它有明確的優先事項，針對這些優先事項的 OKR，並讓我們所有人一起在整個組織中就優先事項進行權衡。

It's really bearing fruit.

確實是結出碩果了。

And I sense there's more leverage, but I don't know.

我感覺還有更多的槓桿作用，但我不知道。

I think Allen would agree with that.

我想艾倫會同意這一點。

Anyway, on your last bit, I mean I think we should probably kind of let -- it was about retention and how agents are feeling about the move to Flex in some markets and ZO move, which is unsettling to a lot of agents and what that's doing to retention.

無論如何，關於你的最後一點，我的意思是我認為我們可能應該讓- 這是關於保留以及代理商對在某些市場中轉向Flex 和ZO 遷移的感受，這讓很多代理商感到不安，以及什麼這對保留率產生了影響。

I think the numbers kind of can speak for themselves like -- although I guess we didn't share specifics, but we have said that we're seeing some of the highest retention rates in our MBP PA.

我認為這些數字可以說明一切——雖然我想我們沒有分享具體細節，但我們已經說過，我們的 MBP PA 中的保留率最高。

So the core traditional business, the big business that -- the one that you're worried about, we were seeing the highest -- some of the highest retention rates we've ever seen.

因此，核心傳統業務，即您所擔心的大業務，我們看到了最高的保留率，是我們所見過的最高的保留率。

And so despite the fact that we are doing all of these, making all of these -- some might characterize as aggressive moves but really just innovative moves in the space with Zillow Offers and with Flex, we are doing well with our traditional partners.

因此，儘管我們正在做所有這些事情——有些可能被認為是激進舉措，但實際上只是 Zillow Offers 和 Flex 領域的創新舉措，但我們與傳統合作夥伴合作得很好。

They sense real opportunity here.

他們在這裡感受到了真正的機會。

They also know that we get 173 million unique users a month that come to our sites and that our brand, Zillow, the word Zillow is searched more in Google than the term real estate.

他們也知道，我們網站每月有 1.73 億獨立用戶，而且我們的品牌 Zillow（Zillow 一詞）在 Google 中的搜尋量比「房地產」一詞的搜尋量還要多。

They know that.

他們知道這一點。

And so good news flows from that great relationship we have with all these customers.

我們與所有這些客戶的良好關係帶來了好消息。

Our next question comes from Lloyd Walmsley with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的勞埃德·沃爾姆斯利。

I have 2, if I can.

如果可以的話我有2個

First, can you give us any sense for how monetization of Flex looks on a per lead basis versus the kind of traditional Premier Agent business?

首先，您能否告訴我們，與傳統的 Premier Agent 業務相比，Flex 在每個潛在客戶基礎上的貨幣化效果如何？

What are you seeing in terms of the ultimate rev per lead accretion?

您對每位潛在客戶的最終轉速成長有何看法？

And what kind of rev rec lag should we be thinking about in terms of timing?

我們應該在時間方面考慮什麼樣的轉速滯後？

And I guess second one would just be can you walk us through the impact of adding the request a tour, the impact of that on the conversion to leads and kind of the timing of that rollout across the footprint.

我想第二個問題是，您能否向我們介紹一下添加遊覽請求的影響、其對潛在客戶轉換的影響以及在整個足跡中推出的時間表。

Anything you can help us with there would be great.

如果您能為我們提供任何幫助，那就太好了。

Okay.

好的。

Allen, maybe you can take the first part, yes.

艾倫，也許你可以參加第一部分，是的。

I'll take the first one.

我就拿第一個。

So to answer, it's still really early in our testing as Rich mentioned.

所以要回答，正如 Rich 所提到的，我們的測驗還處於早期階段。

We just launched Phoenix and Atlanta in Q4, so we don't have enough data points yet to extrapolate a curve on what we think that multiplier impact will be.

我們剛剛在第四季度推出了菲尼克斯和亞特蘭大，因此我們還沒有足夠的數據點來推斷我們認為乘數影響的曲線。

But as Rich mentioned, the goal of the program is to improve our revenue per lead.

但正如 Rich 所提到的，該計劃的目標是提高我們的每個銷售線索收入。

So we needed to be accretive for it to work.

因此，我們需要不斷累積才能使其發揮作用。

We control the testing here.

我們在這裡控制測試。

As we get further along, I think we will be able to have more information, and we'll share that as we feel good about what that extrapolation curve looks like.

隨著我們的進一步進展，我認為我們將能夠獲得更多信息，並且當我們對外推曲線的外觀感到滿意時，我們將分享這些信息。

So what we have done right now is try to give you, like I said, just a guardrail of what we think the impact will be on our top line growth rate for the Flex programs.

因此，正如我所說，我們現在所做的就是嘗試為您提供一個護欄，說明我們認為 Flex 計劃的營收成長率將受到哪些影響。

You can kind of have a with and without as you think about your growth curves.

當你考慮你的生長曲線時，你可以有一個有和沒有。

Same thing...

一樣...

You're talking about the 300 basis points?

你說的是300個基點嗎？

300 basis points for the year, 400 basis points for Q1.

全年300個基點，第一季400個基點。

And then with respect to the rev recognition, we continue to assess that.

然後關於轉速認可，我們繼續評估。

We've made a lot of progress in improving and putting the structure in place to ensure that we understand when transactions occur and get paid for that.

我們在改進和落實結構方面取得了很大進展，以確保我們了解交易何時發生並因此獲得報酬。

But the N is still fairly small just given when we started in Q4.

但我們在第四季開始時給出的 N 仍然相當小。

So we don't have a good curve for cash, cash collection curve at the full cohort of, say, a month of lead.

因此，我們沒有良好的現金曲線，即整個隊列的現金收集曲線，例如一個月的領先曲線。

So we'll keep you posted on that.

所以我們會及時通知您。

On the impact of tours on lead conversion, do you want to get that?

關於旅遊對潛在客戶轉換的影響，您想了解嗎？

Yes, sure.

是的，當然。

Okay.

好的。

So if you think about the conversion funnel, I'm waving my arms, drawing a picture in the air here.

因此，如果你考慮轉換漏斗，我正在揮舞著手臂，在空中畫了一幅圖畫。

At the very top of the funnel, we have visits.

在漏斗的最頂端，我們進行了訪問。

And at the bottom, we have somebody moving into their new home.

在底部，我們有人搬進了他們的新家。

Lots of steps in that conversion funnel, lots of levers and decision points all along the way to improve conversion.

轉換漏斗中的許多步驟、許多槓桿和決策點都在提高轉換率的過程中。

For example, a visitor turning into a submit, a submit into a meeting, a meeting into a house tour or straight from submit to house tour, from house tour to offer, et cetera, et cetera.

例如，訪客變成提交，提交變成會議，會議變成房屋參觀，或直接從提交變成房屋參觀，從房屋參觀變成報價，等等。

Every one of these levers, we have the opportunity to pull, we believe, twist and improve.

我們相信，我們有機會拉動、扭轉和改進每一個槓桿。

And we can address a lot of these with better training but also with software, which is great.

我們可以透過更好的培訓以及軟體來解決其中的許多問題，這很棒。

The tour lever is just one of them, and it's an interesting one.

旅行桿只是其中之一，而且是一個有趣的桿。

As you might imagine, a lot of buyers are on Zillow and Trulia and StreetEasy, and what they really want to do is go see the place.

正如您可能想像的那樣，很多買家都在 Zillow、Trulia 和 StreetEasy 上，他們真正想做的是去看看這個地方。

And so we have done some great feature work in the last quarter to improve the coverage of Tour It Now for our customers.

因此，我們在上個季度做了一些出色的功能工作，以擴大 Tour It Now 為我們的客戶提供的覆蓋範圍。

And that is just one of a patchwork or a collection of features and products that we're working on to improve that conversion.

這只是我們正在努力提高轉換率的功能和產品的拼湊或集合之一。

Our next question comes from Brian Nowak with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的布萊恩·諾瓦克。

Bob Seger and Robert Frost, same prepared remarks, tough act to follow, Rich.

鮑勃·西格和羅伯特·弗羅斯特，同樣準備好的言論，很難遵循，里奇。

I have 2. So I know it's early in Flex with only 2 markets with Atlanta and Phoenix, but just maybe could you talk to us a little bit about 1 or 2 of the friction points or areas that you've really improved on in those 2 markets, whether it's measurement, tying things through, getting the right agents?

我有 2 個。所以我知道 Flex 還處於早期階段，只有亞特蘭大和菲尼克斯這兩個市場，但也許您能和我們談談您在這些方面真正改進的 1 或 2 個摩擦點或領域嗎？2 市場，是否是衡量、捆綁、尋找合適的代理商？

Just talk us through some of the blocking and tackling that's improved that you think will make Flex go smoother going forward.

請告訴我們一些您認為將使 Flex 前進得更順暢的攔網和搶斷方面的改進。

And then on Homes, maybe talk to us how you're thinking about sort of the profitability of your oldest markets throughout 2020 once you sort of have less upfront costs and start to get more potential leverage, et cetera?

然後在房屋方面，也許可以告訴我們，一旦您的前期成本減少並開始獲得更多的潛在槓桿等，您如何看待最古老市場在整個 2020 年的盈利能力？

Thanks for recognizing that, Brian.

感謝您認識到這一點，布萊恩。

I don't know if I had any other embedded references in there.

我不知道其中是否有其他嵌入的參考資料。

On the kind of Flex friction points and what's working and what's not, I mean we are really early, but we are discovering, as I said before, kind of a woeful lack of kind of application of software to better nurture the transaction experience in this industry.

關於 Flex 的摩擦點以及什麼有效、什麼無效，我的意思是我們確實還很早，但正如我之前所說，我們正在發現，可悲的是缺乏某種軟體應用程式來更好地培養交易體驗。行業。

Traditional brokerages do not have and have not had big tech and dev budgets.

傳統經紀公司現在沒有、也沒有大量的技術和開發預算。

They have really -- they just haven't invested in technology.

他們確實——他們只是沒有投資於科技。

And that hasn't really necessarily been their primary concern anyway because their business models have been a little different.

無論如何，這不一定是他們最關心的問題，因為他們的商業模式有點不同。

So we're seeing a tremendous amount of opportunity all along the nurture funnel of a customer.

因此，我們在客戶培育漏斗中看到了大量的機會。

And as we find things, we're automating it.

當我們發現東西時，我們正在將其自動化。

We're finding the right partners who can -- who are better at converting these things.

我們正在尋找合適的合作夥伴，他們能夠——更擅長改變這些事情。

I mean even basic things like drip marketing and e-mail communication and when is the right time to call and when is the right time to send an e-mail and don't overwhelm consumers and bombard them with e-mails because they'll get turned off and they'll go away, these kinds of -- some basic stuff that we have been in the tech business for a long time kind of take for granted.

我的意思是，即使是基本的事情，例如點滴行銷和電子郵件通信，什麼時候是打電話的正確時間，什麼時候是發送電子郵件的正確時間，不要讓消費者不知所措，用電子郵件轟炸他們，因為他們會關掉它們，它們就會消失，這些——一些我們在科技業工作了很長一段時間的基本東西，被認為是理所當然的。

But we're bringing those fresh skills to this industry, and we see a lot of opportunity.

但我們正在將這些新鮮技能引入這個行業，我們看到了許多機會。

On the Homes, the second part of Brian's question, Allen, do you want to try to do some Homes -- the Homes question?

關於“家園”，布賴恩問題的第二部分，艾倫，你想嘗試做一些“家園”——“家園”問題嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Yes.

是的。

So I think the question was how are we looking at profits in our oldest home markets in 2020.

所以我認為問題是我們如何看待 2020 年我們最古老的本土市場的利潤。

So again, with respect to Homes in all markets, actually, we're continuing to measure and look at ways to ensure we're improving year-over-year.

因此，實際上，對於所有市場的房屋，我們正在繼續衡量並尋找方法以確保我們逐年改善。

But at the same time, even in our oldest markets, they're still not that old, and we are testing and iterating on resell and acquisition and a variety of other measures that could impact profitability quarter-over-quarter just given what that test is and what its outcome is.

但與此同時，即使在我們最古老的市場，它們仍然沒有那麼老，我們正在測試和迭代轉售和收購以及各種其他措施，這些措施可能會影響逐季度的盈利能力，只要考慮到測試的內容是什麼以及它的結果是什麼。

So right now, what we're looking at Homes on is we expect to improve overall margin percentage on Homes on an annual basis.

因此，現在，我們關注的是房屋，我們預計房屋的整體利潤率將逐年提高。

It may not always be sequentially quarterly.

它可能並不總是按季度順序進行。

We are holding Homes accountable for improving efficiencies and processes and all of the automation things that are required for us to scale.

我們要求 Homes 負責提高效率和流程以及我們擴展所需的所有自動化事物。

So we have OKRs, as Rich mentioned, to ensure we're getting more productive and efficient.

因此，正如 Rich 所提到的，我們有 OKR，以確保我們提高生產力和效率。

But at the same time, we are still very much iterating and learning around the sale -- acquire and resell process that could affect profits from time to time.

但同時，我們仍在圍繞銷售、收購和轉售流程進行大量迭代和學習，這可能會不時影響利潤。

So I guess what I'd say is that we'll continue to look for that Homes profitability to improve annually as a percentage of revenue, but I don't think there's a bifurcation between what we'll call old home markets and new home markets today.

因此，我想我想說的是，我們將繼續尋求房屋盈利能力佔收入的百分比逐年提高，但我不認為我們所說的舊房市場和新房市場之間存在分歧今天的市場。

Our next question comes from Naved Khan with SunTrust.

我們的下一個問題來自 SunTrust 的 Naved Khan。

Yes.

是的。

Maybe you can give us some sense around the expansion of Flex traditional markets.

也許您可以給我們一些有關 Flex 傳統市場擴張的資訊。

Is it going to be ZIP Codes?

是郵遞區號嗎？

Or are these going to be entire markets you're thinking about maybe in second quarter or the back half?

或者這些是您在第二季或下半年考慮的整個市場？

Can this 5% coverage that you have for Flex, can it go to 10% by year-end?

Flex 的 5% 覆蓋率到年底可以達到 10% 嗎？

So we're learning really rapidly on the expansion of Flex.

因此，我們正在快速了解 Flex 的擴充。

We've tried a bunch of different things in different markets.

我們在不同的市場嘗試了很多不同的事情。

And hanging our strategy on a particular geography or ZIP Code is kind of not the way we're doing it.

將我們的策略掛在特定的地理位置或郵遞區號上並不是我們的做法。

We're looking at high-performing partners, getting it working and then landing and expanding from there.

我們正在尋找高績效的合作夥伴，使其發揮作用，然後從那裡落地並擴展。

And so that will take a different shape for maybe how we've talked about it in the past.

因此，這可能會與我們過去談論它的方式有所不同。

We can see Flex running simultaneously in markets right alongside MBP and us optimizing between the 2 as we grow and learn.

我們可以看到 Flex 與 MBP 同時在市場上運行，並且隨著我們的成長和學習，我們在兩者之間進行最佳化。

On the 5% question, I think what we're trying to do in our 2020 guidance, maybe I'll let Allen repeat it, we're trying to simply build some room to test Flex and expand Flex methodically right into our guidance.

關於 5% 的問題，我認為我們在 2020 年指南中試圖做的事情，也許我會讓 Allen 重複一遍，我們只是試著建立一些空間來測試 Flex，並將 Flex 有條不紊地擴展到我們的指南中。

Yes.

是的。

And the way I would describe it is that a percentage of MRR can have a varying effect depending on what period of time throughout the year you do it.

我的描述方式是，MRR 的百分比可能會產生不同的影響，這取決於您在一年中的哪個時間段進行此操作。

So we think the most appropriate metric to share with you guys to give you a feel for with and without Flex is what our expected impact of -- net impact of Flex is for the year, which is a 300 basis points of revenue growth that we called out in my prepared statements.

因此，我們認為與大家分享的最合適的衡量標準是我們對 Flex 的預期影響，即今年 Flex 的淨影響，即收入增長 300 個基點，讓您了解使用和不使用 Flex 的情況。在我準備好的發言中大聲喊道。

The midpoint of the guide on 2020 is Premier Agent growing...

2020 年指南的中點是 Premier Agent 成長…

7%.

7%。

7%?

7%？

Correct.

正確的。

And plus 300 basis points to 7.4%.

再加上 300 個基點至 7.4%。

No, 300 basis points to 10%.

不，300 個基點至 10%。

Sorry, 300 basis points to 10%.

抱歉，10% 為 300 個基點。

Got it.

知道了。

Just adding it to the 7.4%.

只需將其添加到 7.4% 即可。

Exactly.

確切地。

I just want to be clear.

我只想說清楚。

Yes.

是的。

And again, it is really fluid.

再說一次，它真的很流暢。

I think the only thing we kind of know we're going to do is start some very small testing with high-performing partners in various markets, but that will be a small test in Q2.

我認為我們唯一知道要做的就是與各個市場的高績效合作夥伴開始一些非常小的測試，但這將是第二季的小測試。

And then we'll have better learnings from our tests we launched last year as well as early reads on those to determine whether we do anything in the second half.

然後我們將從去年啟動的測試中獲得更好的經驗教訓，並提前閱讀這些內容，以確定我們是否在下半年採取任何行動。

We just wanted to give ourselves the flexibility to provide you with those guardrails, so we weren't surprising.

我們只是想讓自己能夠靈活地為您提供這些護欄，所以我們並不感到驚訝。

But as we learn stuff that -- around a lot of the questions that have been asked today, we'll continue to communicate where appropriate.

但當我們了解到圍繞今天提出的許多問題的內容時，我們將繼續在適當的情況下進行溝通。

Overall, in PA, we really like the growth we're seeing.

總的來說，在賓州，我們非常喜歡我們所看到的成長。

We're impressed with the growth we're seeing.

我們對所看到的成長印象深刻。

The growth of EBITDA is -- the growth rate of EBITDA is far exceeding the growth of revenue as well, which is nice.

EBITDA 的成長是－ EBITDA 的成長速度也遠遠超過了營收的成長，這是很好的。

So we're showing leverage.

所以我們正在展示槓桿作用。

This is a healthy business that we're optimistic about.

這是一項我們樂觀的健康事業。

Our next question comes from John Campbell with Stephens Inc.

我們的下一個問題來自史蒂芬斯公司的約翰坎貝爾。

Great job getting Premier Agent back on a firm footing.

幹得好，讓首席經紀人重新站穩了腳步。

I'm sure you guys saw this with your Seattle rev in Redfin.

我相信你們西雅圖的 Redfin 牧師都看過這個。

They announced the pricing change.

他們宣布了價格變化。

We were kind of viewing that as maybe serving as potential to increase the stickiness or drive some desired behavior around the home sellers, also using them on the buy side on the next home.

我們認為這可能有可能增加黏性或推動房屋賣家的一些期望行為，也可以在下一套房屋的買方中使用它們。

I don't know.

我不知道。

That was pretty interesting.

那很有趣。

But I don't know what you guys can do, but I'm curious, is there something that you can do to drive better adoption across the ancillary businesses or maybe help steer more customers to Flex conversions?

但我不知道你們能做什麼，但我很好奇，你們能做些什麼來推動輔助業務更好地採用，或者幫助引導更多客戶轉向 Flex 轉換？

I don't know if you can offer up lower closing costs or if there's some type of rebate that you can provide from the commission fees from Flex.

我不知道您是否可以提供較低的成交成本，或者您是否可以從 Flex 的佣金中提供某種類型的回扣。

We will test all kinds of things, and in fact, are testing all kinds of things.

我們會測試各種各樣的東西，事實上，正在測試各種各樣的東西。

Some of you actually noticed us testing some things.

你們中的一些人實際上註意到我們測試了一些東西。

Don't over extrapolate those things onto the whole business.

不要將這些事情過度推斷到整個業務。

I guess what I'd say, at least with respect to Zillow Offers in that is -- and adjacencies is that we're really focused on getting the hub of the wheel of transaction of TAM solid and rolling.

我想我想說的是，至少就 Zillow Offers 而言，我們真正專注於讓 TAM 交易的輪子變得穩固和滾動。

We want to get the wheel rolling and getting the Zillow Offers transaction to a place where it's solid, predictable and showing leverage first is our #1 priority.

我們希望繼續前進，讓 Zillow Offers 交易達到穩定、可預測的水平，並首先顯示槓桿作用是我們的第一要務。

And then we have all these ancillary adjacent transaction that hang off of and are dependent upon or tied to that transaction, including title and escrow and mortgage and others in the future perhaps.

然後，我們擁有所有這些附屬的相鄰交易，這些交易與該交易無關，依賴或與該交易相關，包括所有權、託管和抵押貸款以及未來可能的其他交易。

We're working on those, and we have planted some good stakes in the ground, and they're showing good promise.

我們正在努力解決這些問題，我們已經在地上種下了一些好的木樁，它們正在展現出良好的前景。

But the overall numbers of Zillow Offers home transactions are actually still pretty small.

但 Zillow Offers 房屋交易的總數實際上仍然很小。

So we're not going to see a lot of -- we're not going to see a lot of action in that for a little while.

因此，在一段時間內我們不會看到太多的行動。

We do feel like the whole wheel of transactions though provides us with a large amount of opportunity.

我們確實覺得交易的整個輪子為我們提供了大量的機會。

And we believe that once they're integrated, we can offer a highly differentiated customer experience because they are all connected.

我們相信，一旦它們整合在一起，我們就可以提供高度差異化的客戶體驗，因為它們都是相互連結的。

And so that -- a customer can approach on more one click like transaction.

這樣，客戶就可以進行更多一鍵式的交易。

We're not really seeing that yet in real estate, but we're seeing it in car transactions at Tesla.

我們在房地產領域還沒有真正看到這一點，但我們在特斯拉的汽車交易中看到了這一點。

We're seeing it in a lot of other major transactions that people wouldn't necessarily have thought of as e-commerce transactions.

我們在許多其他人們不一定認為是電子商務交易的主要交易中看到了它。

And we're going to see that in real estate, too.

我們也將在房地產領域看到這一點。

These transactions are going to get much more streamlined, efficient and integrated.

這些交易將變得更加簡化、高效和整合。

Right.

正確的。

And I think our partner agents are going to play a role in those innovative transactions as well.

我認為我們的合作代理也將在這些創新交易中發揮作用。

And that is what we're testing.

這就是我們正在測試的。

Yes, no question.

是的，毫無疑問。

In fact, the Bowen -- the example I used -- watch the video.

事實上，鮑文——我使用的例子——觀看了影片。

I'm serious.

我是認真的。

It's really good.

真的很棒。

That -- the Bowen transaction, the Atlanta couple -- the Atlanta family has started with a Premier Agent and it ended up incorporating Zillow Offers into that and enabling not a one click but a one step, like a same-weekend type transaction.

亞特蘭大夫婦的 Bowen 交易——亞特蘭大家族從高級經紀人開始，最終將 Zillow Offers 納入其中，並實現了不是一鍵點擊而是一步操作，就像同一週末類型的交易一樣。

And that's cool.

這很酷。

And speaking of not extrapolating, I feel like I have to ask you this.

說到不推斷，我覺得我必須問你這個。

But with the brokerage license you guys recently got in New York, I'm guessing that's because of Flex.

但根據你們最近在紐約獲得的經紀執照，我猜這是因為偉創力。

But can you talk to why you need that and whether we should expect you to maybe continue picking that up on a state-by-state basis as you expand Flex?

但您能否談談為什麼您需要它，以及我們是否應該期望您在擴展 Flex 時繼續逐州使用它？

Yes.

是的。

Look, most people don't know this, but we've been brokers for a long time in most places.

你看，大多數人不知道這一點，但我們在大多數地方已經做了很長時間的經紀人。

We're going around cleaning stuff up and doing that.

我們正在到處清理東西並這樣做。

Now we've done that in an abundance of caution, kind of belt and suspenders stuff because the amount of regulation in these industries we operate is quite high.

現在我們已經非常謹慎地做到了這一點，例如腰帶和吊帶之類的東西，因為我們經營的這些行業的監管量相當高。

And so long ago, we got our brokerage licenses.

很久以前，我們就拿到經紀牌照了。

This happens to break into the surface and get into the open air in New York and attract a little attention.

這恰好闖入地表並進入紐約的露天並引起了一些注意。

But really, there's no new news there.

但實際上，沒有新消息。

This concludes our question-and-answer session.

我們的問答環節到此結束。

I would like to turn the conference back over to Rich Barton for any closing remarks.

我想將會議轉回給里奇·巴頓（Rich Barton）發表閉幕詞。

Okay.

好的。

Thanks for your time today, guys.

謝謝你們今天抽出時間，夥伴們。

We are really pleased with our progress to replatform the real estate industry.

我們對房地產產業平台重建的進展感到非常高興。

And we're, as you can tell, excited about what's yet to come.

正如您所知，我們對即將發生的事情感到興奮。

Today's on demand, always on consumers who're eager for a better way to move and we're the best positioned company with our audience size, our technical expertise, our great partners, our platform, our team.

今天的點播始終面向那些渴望更好的出行方式的消費者，憑藉我們的受眾規模、我們的技術專長、我們優秀的合作夥伴、我們的平台和我們的團隊，我們是處於最佳位置的公司。

We're in the best position to lead this revolution.

我們處於領導這場革命的最佳位置。

Our investments are enabling Zillow to begin to participate directly in market making, dramatically expanding our TAM that we believe will drive top and bottom line results for us and for shareholder return over time.

我們的投資使 Zillow 能夠開始直接參與做市，大大擴大我們的 TAM，我們相信這將隨著時間的推移為我們和股東回報帶來頂線和底線業績。

We really appreciate your support, your counsel and your feedback as partners in this journey.

我們非常感謝您作為這趟旅程中的合作夥伴的支持、建議和回饋。

Thanks a lot.

多謝。

We'll talk to you soon.

我們很快就會和你談談。

The conference has now concluded.

會議現已結束。

Thank you for attending today's presentation, you may now disconnect.

感謝您參加今天的演示，您現在可以斷開連接。