斑馬技術公司 (ZBRA) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Zebra Technologies' Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Please note, this event is being recorded. I'd now like to turn the conference over to Mike Steele, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

美好的一天，歡迎參加 Zebra Technologies 2023 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）今天的演示結束後，將有機會提問。請注意，此事件正在被記錄。我現在想將會議交給投資者關係副總裁 Mike Steele。請繼續。

Good morning, and welcome to Zebra's fourth quarter conference call. This presentation is being simulcast on our website at investors.zebra.com and will be archived there for at least 1 year. Our forward-looking statements are based on current expectations and assumptions and are subject to risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ materially, and we refer you to the factors discussed in our SEC filings. During this call, we will reference non-GAAP financial measures as we describe our business performance. You can find reconciliations at the end of this slide presentation and in today's earnings press release. Throughout this presentation, unless otherwise indicated, our references to sales performance are year-over-year on a constant currency basis and exclude results from acquired businesses for the 12 months following the acquisition.

早上好，歡迎參加 Zebra 第四季電話會議。本簡報將在我們的網站 Investors.zebra.com 上同步播出，並將在那裡存檔至少 1 年。我們的前瞻性陳述是基於目前的預期和假設，並受到風險和不確定性的影響。實際結果可能有重大差異，我們建議您參考我們在 SEC 文件中討論的因素。在本次電話會議中，我們在描述我們的業務績效時將參考非公認會計準則財務指標。您可以在本投影片簡報的結尾和今天的收益新聞稿中找到調節表。在本簡報中，除非另有說明，否則我們所提及的銷售業績均以固定匯率計算，且不包括收購後 12 個月內所收購業務的業績。

This presentation will include prepared remarks from Bill Burns, our Chief Executive Officer; and Nathan Winters, our Chief Financial Officer. Bill will begin with our fourth quarter results and actions we are taking. Nathan will then provide additional detail on the financials and discuss our 2024 outlook. Bill will conclude with progress we are making on advancing our Enterprise Asset Intelligence vision. Following the prepared remarks, Bill and Nathan will take your questions. Now let's turn to Slide 4 as I hand it over to Bill.

本演講將包括我們的執行長 Bill Burns 準備好的講話；以及我們的財務長內森溫特斯 (Nathan Winters)。比爾將從我們第四季的業績和我們正在採取的行動開始。然後，內森將提供有關財務狀況的更多詳細資訊並討論我們的 2024 年前景。比爾最後將介紹我們在推動企業資產智慧願景方面所取得的進展。在準備好的發言之後，比爾和內森將回答您的問題。現在讓我們轉向幻燈片 4，我將其交給 Bill。

Thank you, Mike. Good morning, and thank you for joining us. Today, we will discuss our results, the demand environment and progress and actions we are taking to optimize our cost structure and drive sales as demand recovers. As expected, our fourth quarter performance was impacted by continued broad-based softness across our end markets and regions, which resulted in a significant decline in sales and profitability. For the quarter, we realized sales of $1 billion, a 33% decline from the prior year, and adjusted EBITDA margin of 15.4%, a 7-point decrease and non-GAAP diluted earnings per share of $1.71 a 64% decrease from the prior year. Although we experienced declines across all product categories, services and software were a bright spot in the quarter.

謝謝你，麥克。早安，感謝您加入我們。今天，我們將討論我們的業績、需求環境以及我們為優化成本結構並在需求復甦時推動銷售而採取的進展和行動。正如預期的那樣，我們第四季的業績受到終端市場和地區持續普遍疲軟的影響，導致銷售額和獲利能力大幅下降。本季度，我們實現銷售額 10 億美元，比上年下降 33%，調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 15.4%，下降 7 個百分點，非 GAAP 攤薄每股收益為 1.71 美元，比上年下降 64%年。儘管所有產品類別均出現下滑，但服務和軟體是本季的亮點。

From a sequential perspective, we realized Q4 sales growth from Q3 as demand trends stabilize. Overall profitability was primarily impacted by expense deleveraging on lower sales volumes, in a charge to renegotiate a supplier contract. However, as a result of our cost restructuring actions and inventory management initiatives, we realized a significant sequential improvement in profitability and free cash flow.

從環比來看，隨著需求趨勢穩定，我們實現了第四季銷售較第三季成長。整體獲利能力主要受到銷售下降導致費用去槓桿化的影響，這是為了重新談判供應商合約。然而，由於我們的成本重組行動和庫存管理舉措，我們實現了獲利能力和自由現金流的顯著連續改善。

Turning to Slide 5. I'd like to update you on our actions to address and mitigate the impacts of the current demand environment and position ourselves for long-term growth. As referenced in our earnings release, we have expanded the scope of our previously announced cost reduction plan and now expect $120 million of net annualized operating savings, an increase of $20 million from our last update which we expect to implement by mid-2024. Our previously announced actions were substantially completed in the fourth quarter enabled us to realize approximately $50 million of savings in 2023. On the supply front, we continue to work with our contract manufacturers to draw down component inventories, and we are substantially complete with renegotiations of long-term supply commitments.

轉向投影片 5。我想向您介紹我們為解決和減輕當前需求環境的影響以及為長期成長做好準備而採取的行動的最新情況。正如我們在財報中提到的，我們擴大了先前宣布的成本削減計劃的範圍，現在預計年化營運淨節省額將達到1.2 億美元，比我們預計在2024 年中期實施的上次更新增加了2000萬美元。我們先前宣布的行動已在第四季度基本完成，使我們能夠在 2023 年實現約 5000 萬美元的節省。在供應方面，我們繼續與合約製造商合作以減少零件庫存，並且我們已基本完成了長期供應承諾。

In Q4, we renegotiated 2021 agreement with a key electronic component supplier, incurring a $10 million expense. The revised agreement cancels a portion of the multiyear volume commitment and increases purchasing flexibility. We have also reallocated resources to accelerate growth in underpenetrated markets, including Japan, along with government and manufacturing sectors and to address new automation use cases with RFID and machine vision. We expect our actions to improve profitability and drive sales growth as our end markets recover. We saw double-digit declines across each of our end markets for both Q4 and full year as many customers navigate a challenging environment and absorb capacity they built out during the pandemic to address the spike in e-commerce activity.

第四季度，我們與一家主要電子元件供應商重新談判了 2021 年協議，產生了 1,000 萬美元的費用。修訂後的協議取消了部分多年銷售承諾，並提高了採購靈活性。我們也重新分配資源，以加速包括日本在內的滲透不足市場以及政府和製造業的成長，並透過 RFID 和機器視覺解決新的自動化用例。我們預計，隨著終端市場的復甦，我們的行動將提高獲利能力並推動銷售成長。我們看到第四季度和全年每個終端市場都出現了兩位數的下降，因為許多客戶面臨著充滿挑戰的環境，並吸收了他們在大流行期間為應對電子商務活動激增而建立的產能。

On Slide 6, we highlight secular trends that we expect to drive long-term growth including labor and resource constraints, real-time supply chain visibility, track and trace mandates and increased consumer expectations. These are all focused areas in my conversations with our customers. Entering 2024, distributor inventories are aligned with current demand. Although we are seeing some improvement in order activity, we are not yet seeing any signs of a broad market recovery and remain cautious in our planning. Consequently, we continue to take an agile approach to navigating this uncertain environment and remain disciplined with respect to our cost structure and capital allocation. I will now turn the call over to Nathan to review our Q4 financial results and discuss our 2024 outlook.

在投影片 6 中，我們強調了我們預計將推動長期成長的長期趨勢，包括勞動力和資源限制、即時供應鏈可見性、追蹤和追溯要求以及消費者期望的提高。這些都是我與客戶對話的重點領域。進入 2024 年，經銷商庫存將與當前需求保持一致。儘管我們看到訂單活動有所改善，但我們尚未看到任何市場廣泛復甦的跡象，因此我們的計劃仍保持謹慎。因此，我們繼續採取靈活的方法來應對這種不確定的環境，並在成本結構和資本分配方面保持紀律。我現在將電話轉給 Nathan，回顧我們第四季的財務表現並討論我們 2024 年的前景。

Thank you, Bill. Let's start with the P&L on Slide 8. In Q4, sales decreased 33% with distributor destocking accounting for more than 1/4 of the decline. We saw double-digit sales declines across our regions, major product categories and customers of all sizes. Our Asset Intelligence and Tracking segment declined 33.6%, primarily driven by printing. Enterprise Visibility & Mobility segment sales declined 32.7% led by data capture and mobile computing. On a positive note, we drove services growth with strong attach and renewal rates. From a sequential perspective, total Q4 sales were $53 million higher than Q3, despite a similar magnitude of distributor inventory destocking due to modest improvement in demand. Adjusted gross margin decreased 100 basis points to 44.6% and primarily due to expense deleveraging from lower sales volumes and the $10 million charge mentioned earlier associated with the renegotiation of a supplier agreement, all of which were partially offset by higher services and software margin and cycling premium supply chain costs in the prior year.

謝謝你，比爾。讓我們從幻燈片 8 上的損益表開始。第四季度，銷售額下降了 33%，其中經銷商去庫存佔降幅的 1/4 以上。我們發現各個地區、主要產品類別和各種規模的客戶的銷售額均出現兩位數下降。我們的資產智慧和追蹤部門下降了 33.6%，主要是由印刷推動的。企業可視性和行動性部門的銷售額下降了 32.7%，其中資料擷取和行動運算為主導。從積極的方面來看，我們以強勁的附加率和續訂率推動了服務成長。從環比來看，第四季的總銷售額比第三季高出 5,300 萬美元，儘管由於需求適度改善而進行了類似程度的庫存去化。調整後毛利率下降100 個基點至44.6%，主要是由於銷售下降導致費用去槓桿化，以及前面提到的與供應商協議重新談判相關的1,000 萬美元費用，所有這些都被較高的服務和軟體利潤率和周期所部分抵銷上一年的溢價供應鏈成本。

Adjusted operating expenses delevered 670 basis points as a percent of sales. The impact was mitigated by more than $20 million of net savings in the quarter from our restructuring actions. This resulted in fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA margin of 15.4%, a 710 basis point decrease. Non-GAAP diluted earnings per share was $1.71, a 64% year-over-year decrease. Increased interest expense contributed to the decline offset by a lower tax rate from executing on a global tax strategy.

調整後的營運費用佔銷售額的比例降低了 670 個基點。本季我們的重組行動淨節省了超過 2000 萬美元，減輕了影響。這導致第四季度調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 15.4%，下降 710 個基點。非 GAAP 攤薄每股收益為 1.71 美元，較去年同期下降 64%。利息支出的增加導致了下降，但被執行全球稅收策略帶來的較低稅率所抵消。

Turning now to the balance sheet and cash flow on Slide 9. We ended the quarter at a 2.5x net debt to adjusted EBITDA leverage ratio which is at the top end of our target range. We generated $102 million of free cash flow in Q4 and had approximately $1.1 billion of capacity on our revolving credit facility as of year-end, providing ample flexibility. For the full year 2023, negative free cash flow of $91 million was unfavorable to the prior year, primarily due to lower operating profit, higher interest and tax payments restructuring actions and previously announced settlement payments, all of which were partially offset by lower incentive compensation payments.

現在轉向幻燈片 9 上的資產負債表和現金流。本季末，我們的淨負債與調整後 EBITDA 槓桿比率為 2.5 倍，處於我們目標範圍的上限。我們在第四季度產生了 1.02 億美元的自由現金流，截至年底我們的循環信貸額度約為 11 億美元，提供了充足的靈活性。 2023年全年，自由現金流為負9,100萬美元，與前一年相比不利，主要是由於營業利潤下降、利息和稅款支付重組行動以及先前宣布的和解付款增加，所有這些都被較低的激勵薪酬部分抵消付款。

Let's now turn to our outlook. We entered 2024 with distributor inventory levels aligned with recent demand trends and improved backlog driven by modest year-end budget spending into January from certain retailers. For Q1, we expect a sales decrease between 17% and 20% compared to the prior year. This outlook assumes continued declines across our major product categories, particularly printing and a 50 basis point favorable impact from FX. We anticipate Q1 adjusted EBITDA margin to be approximately 18%, driven by expense deleveraging from lower sales volume, partially offset by lower premium supply chain costs. Non-GAAP diluted earnings per share are expected to be in the range of $2.30 to $2.60. Q1 sales and profitability are expected to sequentially increase from Q4 as distributor inventories and end market demand has stabilized, and we have realized incremental benefits from cost actions. For the full year 2024, we expect sales to be in the range of a 1% decline and 3% growth. Although we are beginning to see signs of improvement in order activity, we are not yet seeing signs of a broad market recovery.

現在讓我們來談談我們的展望。進入 2024 年，經銷商庫存水準與近期需求趨勢一致，某些零售商 1 月年底預算支出適度，導致積壓情況有所改善。對於第一季度，我們預計銷售額將比去年同期下降 17% 至 20%。這一前景假設我們的主要產品類別（特別是印刷）持續下滑，並且受到外匯 50 個基點的有利影響。我們預計第一季調整後 EBITDA 利潤率約為 18%，這是由於銷售下降帶來的費用去槓桿化推動的，但高端供應鏈成本的下降部分抵消了這一影響。非 GAAP 攤薄每股收益預計在 2.30 美元至 2.60 美元之間。隨著經銷商庫存和終端市場需求趨於穩定，並且我們已經從成本行動中實現了增量效益，預計第一季的銷售額和盈利能力將比第四季度連續增長。對於 2024 年全年，我們預計銷售額將在下降 1% 和成長 3% 的範圍內。儘管我們開始看到訂單活動有所改善的跡象，但我們尚未看到市場廣泛復甦的跡象。

Consequently, we are taking a cautious approach to our guide until we have increased visibility to a sustained recovery in demand. Adjusted EBITDA for the full year 2024 is expected to be approximately 19%. We expect our restructuring actions and other profitability initiatives to drive improvement through the year delivering EBITDA margin of 20% in the second half. We remain cautious in our spending and continue to take an agile approach to navigating the environment. We expect our free cash flow in 2024 and to be at least $550 million, including the impact of our final $45 million settlement payment in Q1. We remain focused on rightsizing inventory on our balance sheet, driving 100% cash conversion over a cycle and prioritizing debt paydown in the near term. Please reference additional modeling assumptions shown on Slide 10. With that, I will turn the call to Bill to discuss how we are advancing our Enterprise Asset Intelligence vision.

因此，我們對指南採取謹慎態度，直到我們更清楚地看到需求持續復甦。 2024 年全年調整後 EBITDA 預計約 19%。我們預計我們的重組行動和其他獲利措施將推動全年業績的改善，下半年 EBITDA 利潤率將達到 20%。我們對支出保持謹慎，並繼續採取靈活的方法來應對環境。我們預計 2024 年的自由現金流將至少為 5.5 億美元，其中包括第一季最終 4,500 萬美元和解付款的影響。我們仍然專注於調整資產負債表上的庫存規模，在一個週期內推動 100% 的現金轉換，並優先考慮短期內償還債務。請參考投影片 10 中顯示的其他建模假設。之後，我將致電 Bill，討論我們如何推進企業資產智慧願景。

Thank you, Nathan. As you look towards the long-term opportunity for Zebra, our future is bright. Our solutions remain essential to our customers' operations, and we are well positioned to benefit from secular trends to digitize and automate workflows. We are focused on advancing our Enterprise Asset Intelligence vision by elevating Zebra as a premier solutions provider through a comprehensive portfolio of innovative solutions that demonstrate our industry leadership. We empower workers to execute tasks more effectively by navigating constant change in real-time, utilizing insights driven by advanced software capabilities such as intelligent automation, artificial intelligence, machine learning and prescriptive analytics. By transforming workflows with our proven solutions, enterprises can improve the experience of frontline workers and customers.

謝謝你，內森。當您展望斑馬技術的長期機會時，我們的未來是光明的。我們的解決方案對於客戶的營運仍然至關重要，我們處於有利地位，可以從工作流程數位化和自動化的長期趨勢中受益。我們致力於透過展示我們行業領先地位的全面創新解決方案組合將 Zebra 提升為一流解決方案提供商，從而推進我們的企業資產智慧願景。我們利用智慧自動化、人工智慧、機器學習和規範分析等先進軟體功能驅動的洞察力，即時應對不斷變化，使員工能夠更有效地執行任務。透過使用我們經過驗證的解決方案來改變工作流程，企業可以改善第一線員工和客戶的體驗。

As you can see on Slide 13, customers leverage our technology to optimize workflows for the on-demand economy. Our solutions empower enterprises to increase collaboration and productivity and better serve their customers, shoppers and patients. I would like to highlight some recent wins by our team. A leading North American retailer selected 30,000 Zebra mobile computers and our device tracker solution for customer order fulfillment in fresh food inventory tracking. This competitive win was secured by our ability to deliver higher productivity along with superior data capture performance and network connectivity. A North American retailer refreshed 60,000 mobile printers and related accessories to enable frequent product pricing updates across various locations. This retailer has a long history with Zebra across our broad portfolio, demonstrating the value they see in our hardware and software solutions coupled with our exceptional post-sale support.

正如您在投影片 13 中看到的，客戶利用我們的技術來優化按需經濟的工作流程。我們的解決方案使企業能夠提高協作和生產力，並更好地為客戶、購物者和患者提供服務。我想強調一下我們團隊最近取得的一些勝利。一家領先的北美零售商選擇了 30,000 台 Zebra 行動數據終端和我們的設備追蹤器解決方案，用於生鮮食品庫存追蹤中的客戶訂單履行。我們能夠提供更高的生產力以及卓越的數據捕獲性能和網路連接，從而確保了這一競爭勝利。一家北美零售商更新了 60,000 台行動印表機和相關配件，以便能夠在不同地點頻繁更新產品價格。該零售商在我們廣泛的產品組合中與 Zebra 有著悠久的合作歷史，展示了他們在我們的硬體和軟體解決方案以及我們卓越的售後支援中看到的價值。

A European postal service purchased more than 10,000 Zebra mobile computers to facilitate proof of delivery and package tracking. This organization's decision to replace a competitor was driven by superior product performance and enhanced cybersecurity features. A European field service organization, providing public housing repairs selected Zebra for both mobile computers and tablets to replace consumer devices that had been in place for 3 product generations. Zebra secured the win by demonstrating a customer-first strategy by addressing their unique facial recognition and authentication challenges. And finally, a large retailer in our Asia Pacific region selected Zebra scheduling software to be utilized on Zebra mobile computers. Zebra solution was selected over our competitors based on the capabilities of our software and our trusted partnership.

歐洲郵政服務購買了 10,000 多台 Zebra 行動數據終端，以方便遞送證明和包裹追蹤。該組織決定更換競爭對手是由於卓越的產品性能和增強的網路安全功能。一家提供公共住宅維修的歐洲現場服務組織選擇 Zebra 作為行動數據終端和平板電腦來取代已經使用了 3 代產品的消費性設備。 Zebra 透過解決其獨特的臉部辨識和身分驗證挑戰，展現了客戶至上的策略，從而贏得了勝利。最後，亞太地區的一家大型零售商選擇在 Zebra 行動數據終端上使用 Zebra 調度軟體。基於我們軟體的功能和值得信賴的合作夥伴關係，我們選擇了 Zebra 解決方案而不是我們的競爭對手。

Slide 14 highlights Zebra's value proposition for retailers which was showcased at the National Retail Federation trade show in January. Alongside our partners, we demonstrated how our innovative solutions help retailers solve their most pressing challenges and drive increased performance by optimizing inventory, engaging associates and elevating the customer experience. As retailers address e-commerce growth, the expansion of anywhere fulfillment and consumers' demand for hyper convenience Zebra solutions provide a performance edge for retail associates. Our demonstrations included next-generation checkout solutions with machine vision, loss detection with RFID, a mobile computing, AI assistant along with other innovative solutions. In our booth, Office Depot shared how our solutions address their workflow challenges. This includes Zebra's workforce optimization software boosting operational efficiency of associates and delivering faster buy online, pick up in store, order fulfillment. The combination of Zebra software and mobile computers is driving associate productivity and engagement along with improved customer satisfaction.

幻燈片 14 重點介紹了 Zebra 對零售商的價值主張，該主張已在一月份的全國零售聯合會貿易展上展示。我們與合作夥伴一起展示了我們的創新解決方案如何幫助零售商解決最緊迫的挑戰，並透過優化庫存、吸引員工和提升客戶體驗來提高績效。隨著零售商應對電子商務的成長、隨時隨地履行的擴展以及消費者對超級便利的 Zebra 解決方案的需求，為零售員工提供了績效優勢。我們的演示包括下一代機器視覺結帳解決方案、RFID 遺失偵測、行動運算、人工智慧助理以及其他創新解決方案。在我們的展位上，Office Depot 分享了我們的解決方案如何應對其工作流程挑戰。這包括 Zebra 的勞動力優化軟體，可提高員工的營運效率，並提供更快的線上購買、店內取貨和訂單履行。 Zebra 軟體和行動數據終端的結合正在提高員工的工作效率和參與度，同時提高客戶滿意度。

In closing, our long-term conviction and our strong business fundamentals remain unchanged, and we are well positioned to benefit from trends to digitize and automate workflows. We are elevating our position with customers through our innovative portfolio of solutions, while our cost and go-to-market actions are positioning us well for profitable growth as our end markets recover. I will now hand it back to Mike.

最後，我們的長期信念和強大的業務基礎保持不變，我們處於有利位置，可以從工作流程數位化和自動化的趨勢中受益。我們正在透過創新的解決方案組合來提升我們在客戶中的地位，而我們的成本和進入市場行動使我們能夠在終端市場復甦時實現盈利增長。我現在將其交還給邁克。

Thanks, Bill. We'll now open the call to Q&A. (Operator Instructions)

謝謝，比爾。我們現在將開始問答電話。 （操作員說明）

(Operator Instructions) And today's first question comes from Tommy Moll with Stephens.

（操作員說明）今天的第一個問題來自湯米·莫爾和史蒂芬斯。

I believe it was Bill who made the comment about the need to absorb some excess capacity in the e-commerce landscape and I'm curious, based on your discussions with end users in that ecosystem. Do you have any visibility into when most of that capacity will be absorbed? Is there any assumption in your 2024 outlook about a return to more normal levels of spending there?

我相信是比爾發表了關於需要吸收電子商務領域的一些過剩產能的評論，根據您與該生態系統中的最終用戶的討論，我很好奇。您是否知道大部分產能何時會被吸收？您對 2024 年的展望中是否有關於該地區支出恢復到更正常水準的假設？

Yes, Tommy, I think that we've clearly seen that retail IT budgets have been under pressure. And the retailers overall certainly sweating assets, but also this idea of customers absorbing capacity, not just in e-commerce but also in Transportation and Logistics as well. And they built out significant capacity during the pandemic, believing that ultimately the growth trajectory would continue off those rates. And now we've seen kind of a reset in both, e-commerce continuing to grow, obviously, but of -- and parcel delivery both kind of resetting to pre-pandemic levels and growing from there. So we've seen some positive signs in the e-commerce side where some of that capacity has been used off and that we're beginning to see orders for from those e-commerce providers that need and have continued demand now.

是的，Tommy，我認為我們已經清楚地看到零售 IT 預算一直面臨壓力。零售商總體上肯定會消耗資產，但也有這種客戶吸收能力的想法，不僅在電子商務領域，而且在運輸和物流領域也是如此。他們在大流行期間建立了巨大的產能，並相信最終的成長軌跡將繼續保持這些速度。現在我們看到了電子商務的重新設定，顯然，電子商務繼續增長，但包裹遞送都重新設定到大流行前的水平，並從那裡開始增長。因此，我們在電子商務方面看到了一些積極的跡象，其中一些產能已經被使用，我們開始看到那些需要並且現在有持續需求的電子商務提供者的訂單。

So we're seeing that coming to an end on some of the e-commerce providers. We're seeing across transportation logistics, still a challenge in volumes of parcel delivery. And we're seeing the T&L providers really taking this as an opportunity to kind of restructure their businesses and think about how to be more effective and more efficient in their delivery mechanisms. We saw the same in e-commerce over the last year plus, but I think we're coming through it in e-commerce. Still P&L challenge there is we're continuing to see is the results in the -- around parcels being still remain challenged. So I would say, coming to an e-commerce but still challenging in the build-out across e-commerce -- around, sorry, Transportation and Logistics.

因此，我們看到一些電子商務提供者的這種情況即將結束。我們看到整個運輸物流領域，包裹投遞量仍然是一個挑戰。我們看到運輸和物流提供者確實以此為契機來重組其業務，並思考如何提高其交付機制的有效性和效率。去年我們在電子商務領域也看到了同樣的情況，但我認為我們正在電子商務領域度過難關。我們繼續看到的損益挑戰仍然是圍繞包裹的結果仍然面臨挑戰。所以我想說，進入電子商務領域，但在整個電子商務領域的建設仍然面臨挑戰——抱歉，圍繞著運輸和物流。

Yes. And 1 point I wanted to clarify, Nathan, I think in your comments, you talked to an improving backlog in January and that there were certain retail-related orders that drove that. But could you correct the record there, if I got it wrong and just give us any more detail there?

是的。我想澄清一點，內森，我認為在您的評論中，您談到了 1 月份積壓情況的改善，以及某些與零售相關的訂單推動了這一情況。但是，如果我弄錯了，您能否更正那裡的記錄，並為我們提供更多詳細資訊嗎？

Yes. No, Tommy, I think if you look, we did in the quarter, I'd say, back at pre-pandemic levels entering the quarter from a backlog perspective, where it was a little bit more depressed as we went into Q3 and Q4. And that was primarily driven by some of the uptick we saw in year-end spend that we were able to ship here in the early part of Q1, driving some of the sequential improvement from Q4 to Q1. So I think again, not to the backlog levels we were at a few years ago, during maybe peak of the supply chain challenges, but definitely a sequential improvement with some of the incremental volume as well as getting our inventory in the channel rightsized. So again, we feel good about the backlog we have entering the first quarter relative to the guide.

是的。不，湯米，我想如果你看一下，我們在本季度的表現，我想說的是，從積壓的角度來看，回到了大流行前的水平，進入第三季度和第四季度時，情況有點沮喪。這主要是由於我們在第一季初期能夠在年終支出中看到的一些上升所推動的，從而推動了從第四季度到第一季的一些連續改善。因此，我再次認為，不是達到我們幾年前（可能是供應鏈挑戰高峰期間）的積壓水平，而是肯定會通過一些增量以及調整渠道中的庫存來實現連續改進。因此，我們對進入第一季相對於指南的積壓情況感到滿意。

And our next question comes from Brad Hewitt with Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自沃爾夫研究中心的布拉德·休伊特。

So the Q1 guidance midpoint looks to imply a slight uptick sequentially on the top line, excluding the Q4 destock headwind. But then your full year guide seems to imply revenue remains relatively flat sequentially as we progress throughout the year. So just curious if you could talk about how you see underlying demand progressing through the year? And do you see the potential for orders in the pipeline conversion rate to improve as we exit '24 and into 2025.

因此，第一季指導中點似乎意味著頂線將略有上升，排除第四季度去庫存的不利因素。但是，您的全年指南似乎意味著，隨著我們全年的進展，收入仍然相對持平。那麼，您是否能談談您對今年潛在需求進展的看法？隨著我們退出 24 年並進入 2025 年，您是否認為管道中的訂單轉換率有可能提高。

Yes. Maybe I'll start with just kind of the framework for the guidance. So yes, you're right. If you look at our Q1 guide, down 17% to 20% sequentially, that does improve from Q4 as we are not assuming any additional distributor destocking. So that drives the vast majority of the sequential improvement, again, along with the some uptick in demand that we saw particularly around year-end spend. And then if you look at the full year guide of 1% at the midpoint as you noted, if you look we expect Q2 to look similar to Q1 with the modest sequential improvement as we move through the second half. And as we talked about in the prepared remarks, I think we're cautious given the lack of visibility and the commitment to the pipeline in the second half. So if you look kind of again at the balance of the year, as you noted, really the growth is entirely driven by the 2023 destocking with the market flat, maybe down a little bit in Q2, up a little bit in the second half. And we think that's appropriate given the visibility we have around the demand environment.

是的。也許我會從指導框架開始。所以是的，你是對的。如果你看一下我們的第一季指南，環比下降 17% 到 20%，這確實比第四季度有所改善，因為我們不假設經銷商會進行任何額外的去庫存。因此，這再次推動了絕大多數連續改善，同時我們看到特別是在年底支出期間需求上升。然後，如果你看一下全年中點1% 的指導，正如你所指出的，如果你看一下，我們預計第二季度看起來與第一季相似，隨著下半年的進展，會有適度的連續改善。正如我們在準備好的發言中談到的那樣，我認為考慮到下半年缺乏可見性和對管道的承諾，我們持謹慎態度。因此，如果您再次審視今年的餘額，正如您所指出的，實際上增長完全是由 2023 年去庫存推動的，市場持平，可能在第二季度略有下降，在下半年略有上升。考慮到我們對需求環境的了解，我們認為這是適當的。

Okay. That's helpful. And then you've talked in the past about how you typically tend to gain share coming out of downturns. Could you talk about how you see the opportunity for share gains as we turn the page to 2024 and kind of where you see the lowest hanging fruit in terms of potential share gains going forward?

好的。這很有幫助。然後您過去曾談到您通常如何在經濟低迷時期獲得份額。當我們翻過這一頁到 2024 年時，您能否談談您如何看待股票收益的機會，以及您認為在未來潛在股票收益方面最容易實現的目標是什麼？

I would say that overall, talking to our customers and spending a lot of time with our customers and partners through NRF that clearly, our customers see that there's tremendous value in what we do for them each and every day to make their businesses more effective and more efficient and to literally run their businesses. So we see the opportunities across each 1 of our vertical markets as we see really retail likely returning first is we're continuing to work with them as they've been holding off and sweating assets within their environments and our engagements with NRF, certainly, we've seen optimism by our retail customers in the second half of the year. We marry our mobile devices there with our software solutions. And what we talk about is really resonating with them around our modern store initiative. We see that in Transportation and Logistics, our value proposition remains really to help our customers with things like labor constraints and additional supply chain visibility across their businesses and we're excited about opportunities there within opportunities in technologies such as RFID as they look to get more to productivity across their businesses.

我想說的是，總的來說，透過NRF 與我們的客戶交談並花費大量時間與我們的客戶和合作夥伴相處，我們的客戶顯然​​看到我們每天為他們所做的事情具有巨大的價值，可以使他們的業務更加高效，更有效率並真正經營他們的業務。因此，我們看到了每個垂直市場的機會，因為我們看到真正的零售業可能首先回歸的是我們繼續與他們合作，因為他們一直在他們的環境中拖延和消耗資產，當然，我們與NRF 的合作，今年下半年，我們看到了零售客戶的樂觀態度。我們將行動裝置與我們的軟體解決方案結合。我們所談論的內容確實與我們的現代商店計劃引起了他們的共鳴。我們看到，在運輸和物流領域，我們的價值主張仍然是真正幫助我們的客戶解決勞動力限制和整個業務中額外的供應鏈可見性等問題，我們對RFID 等技術機會中的機會感到興奮，因為他們希望獲得更多地提高整個企業的生產力。

We've got the MODEX trade show coming up and Transportation and Logistics Expo coming up next month here. And we will showcase our solutions to -- across transportation logistics. We've talked about manufacturing has really been an opportunity for us is that we're less penetrated in that market, and we've got new solutions around machine vision and robotic automation and our demand planning software offering inside manufacturing. So we see that as an opportunity for us. And then lastly, Healthcare, as we continue to see ways to automate workflows and digitally connect assets and patients and staff within the healthcare environment. We see home health care and telehealth being an opportunity. So there's lots of opportunities across each one of the vertical markets. We'd probably say that retail is a place that we've seen some of the positive year-end spending first. And then I think the other vertical markets will follow.

下個月我們將舉辦 MODEX 貿易展以及運輸和物流博覽會。我們將展示我們的解決方案—跨運輸物流。我們已經談到，製造業對我們來說確實是一個機會，因為我們在該市場的滲透率較低，而且我們圍繞機器視覺和機器人自動化以及我們在製造業內部提供的需求規劃軟體提供了新的解決方案。所以我們認為這對我們來說是一個機會。最後是醫療保健，我們不斷尋找自動化工作流程以及以數位方式連接醫療保健環境中的資產、患者和員工的方法。我們認為家庭醫療保健和遠距醫療是一個機會。因此，每個垂直市場都有許多機會。我們可能會說，零售業是我們首先看到一些積極的年終支出的領域。然後我認為其他垂直市場也會隨之而來。

And our next question today comes from Meta Marshall with Morgan Stanley.

今天我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的梅塔馬歇爾。

Great. Maybe first question. Just -- you noted that the headwind from destocking was about the same in Q4 as in Q3. I think we had expected it to be slightly smaller understanding that's largely behind us. But just was that amount of destocking kind of greater than expected in Q4? And then maybe as a second question, obviously, the interest rate environment is maybe a little bit friendlier now your balance sheet, your interest rate is relatively heavy on your interest expense. Just wondering if you've looked at any opportunities to refinance that at more attractive rates.

偉大的。也許是第一個問題。只是 - 您注意到第四季和第三季去庫存帶來的阻力大致相同。我認為我們原本預計它的理解會稍微小一些，但這在很大程度上已經過去了。但第四季的去庫存量是否超出預期？然後也許作為第二個問題，顯然，現在您的資產負債表上的利率環境可能會更友好一些，您的利率對您的利息支出來說相對較重。只是想知道您是否考慮過以更具吸引力的利率進行再融資的機會。

Yes, Meta. So on the first question, you're right. So it was about $20 million, $25 million more of incremental destocking versus the original guide and the balance of that was offset by higher demand to come in above our guidance midpoint for Q4. So I think we thought that is a -- I'll get a positive trend that again, we would take a little bit more out of the channel to set us up here as we moved into 2024. Now as it relates to interest rates, I think the -- I think we feel good about actually our position. what you'll see in the cost of borrowing, that includes all of our crediting and banking fees. But if you look at the overall cost of borrowing and where we trade at I think we feel good about the position, but we're always looking at opportunities given the environment to whether it makes sense to refinance and take advantage of the market. So that's something we're actively looking at. But today, we don't feel like we're at a disadvantage relative to the debt cost position.

是的，梅塔。所以對於第一個問題，你是對的。因此，與最初的指導相比，增量去庫存增加了約 2000 萬美元，增加了 2500 萬美元，而其餘部分被高於我們第四季度指導中點的更高需求所抵消。所以我認為我們認為這是一個積極的趨勢，當我們進入 2024 年時，我們將再次從管道中採取更多措施來建立我們的體系。現在，由於它與利率有關，我認為——我認為我們實際上對我們的立場感覺良好。您將在藉貸成本中看到什麼，其中包括我們所有的貸記費用和銀行費用。但如果你看看借貸的總體成本和我們的交易地點，我認為我們對這個職位感覺良好，但我們總是在考慮到再融資和利用市場是否有意義的環境下尋找機會。這就是我們正在積極研究的事情。但今天，我們並不覺得自己相對於債務成本狀況處於劣勢。

And our next question today comes from Joe Giordano with TD Cowen.

今天我們的下一個問題來自 Joe Giordano 和 TD Cowen。

I just wanted to -- last year, when we initially started to see the real weakness and you guys had to adjust your guide, there was clearly like a change in methodology, and it was very stripped down. It was kind of discounting things that weren't burden hand kind of orders and a change in how you were building up from the sales force commentary. So I'm just curious now as you look into '24 and you give that kind of qualitative guide. How would you compare your buildup methodology to how you were a full year ago versus how you were like 6 months ago when it got much more conservative.

我只是想——去年，當我們最初開始看到真正的弱點時，你們必須調整你們的指南，顯然方法論發生了變化，而且非常精簡。這是對那些不是負擔手訂單的東西的折扣，以及你從銷售人員評論中建立起來的方式的改變。所以我現在很好奇，當你研究 '24 時，你會給出那種定性的指導。您如何將您的累積方法與一整年前的情況與 6 個月前變得更加保守時的情況進行比較。

Yes, Joe, I'd say that probably if you look back to January, we literally have met with thousands of our customers and partners across our Channel Partner Summit in Asia Pacific and than in Europe and then North America, Latin America and then with the National Retail Federation show. And it's clear that our solutions are essential to what our customers are doing in their business every day and they're grateful to have quite honestly, Zebra is a strong partner along with them. And they're excited about the innovation that we're bringing to market and they're optimistic. So our partners and our customers are optimistic. They're happy to put 2023 behind them, quite honestly. And there's optimism for 2024, especially in second half year.

是的，喬，我想說的是，如果你回顧一月份，我們確實在亞太地區、歐洲、北美、拉丁美洲和拉丁美洲的通路合作夥伴峰會上會見了數千名客戶和合作夥伴。全國零售聯合會展會。很明顯，我們的解決方案對於我們的客戶每天的業務活動至關重要，他們很高興能坦白地說，Zebra 是他們強大的合作夥伴。他們對我們向市場推出的創新感到興奮並且持樂觀態度。所以我們的合作夥伴和客戶都很樂觀。老實說，他們很高興將 2023 年拋在腦後。 2024 年，尤其是下半年，人們持樂觀態度。

However, I would say that from our perspective, and it's prudent to remain cautious and that we haven't seen a broader recovery. We've really seen some kind of green shoots here in the year-end of year-end spending across retail, mostly in North America. And we'd rather -- we'd like to see first some orders, projects, deployments really move forward before we get ahead of ourselves kind of for the full year. So I think optimism, happy to put '23 behind us. I think we feel good about modest increases through the year as demand progresses throughout the year, but we'd like to get a little more confidence by having more orders, more projects, more deployments across our end customers move forward. And we think it's prudent and reflect in our guide to be a bit conservative at the moment.

然而，我想說，從我們的角度來看，保持謹慎是明智的做法，而且我們還沒有看到更廣泛的復甦。我們確實在年底看到了零售業（主要是北美）年終支出的某種萌芽。我們寧願——我們希望首先看到一些訂單、項目和部署真正取得進展，然後我們才能在全年中超越自己。所以我認為樂觀，很高興將 23 年拋在身後。我認為，隨著全年需求的增長，我們對全年的適度增長感到滿意，但我們希望透過最終客戶的更多訂單、更多項目和更多部署來獲得更多信心。我們認為目前採取的保守態度是謹慎的，並反映在我們的指南中。

Yes, and I think if you look back historically at this point in the year, we would have always assumed we'd have several of those large mega deployments in the second half, even though we may not have identified exactly which customer, but we would -- that was something we always had. And I think that's where we've pulled back on that assumption, given the experience we've had over the last several quarters. And the fact, as Bill said, there's not a firm commitment. So until we start to see some of those firm commitments, we didn't think it was appropriate to lean in and just assume that some of those will start to come back in the second half.

是的，我認為，如果你回顧今年此時的歷史，我們總是假設我們會在下半年進行一些大型部署，儘管我們可能沒有確切地確定是哪個客戶，但我們會——這是我們一直擁有的東西。我認為，鑑於我們過去幾個季度的經驗，我們已經放棄了這個假設。事實上，正如比爾所說，並沒有堅定的承諾。因此，在我們開始看到其中一些堅定的承諾之前，我們認為不應該繼續努力並假設其中一些承諾將在下半年開始回歸。

Okay. That's fair. And then if I look at the margin guidance for the year, the EBITDA at 19%, maybe I thought maybe a little higher at that level of revenue, particularly given an extra $20 million in costs. So can you just maybe talk through the gross margin if you're seeing any pressures anywhere? And then if you could just touch on the working capital this year, just the free cash flow. How normalize is that going to look exiting the year?

好的。這還算公平。然後，如果我看今年的利潤指引，即 EBITDA 為 19%，也許我認為在這個收入水平上可能會更高一些，特別是考慮到額外的 2000 萬美元成本。那麼，如果您在任何地方看到任何壓力，您能否談談毛利率？然後，如果你能談談今年的營運資金，那就是自由現金流。今年的情況會如何正常化？

Yes. So again, if you look at our full year guide of 19% that does have us at 20% in the second half and as we head into 2025. We thought that was important for us to work through as we went through the cost actions and if you look sequentially, it's about year-on-year, I should say, about 1 point higher than '23, really around gross margin due to favorable pricing, some lower premium supply chain costs and a bit of volume leverage. If you think about the restructuring benefits, it's about $60 million of benefit improvement from 2024, but that's offset by incentive compensation. So getting back to fully loaded on our incentive compensation plans for the year. So those 2 negate each other for the full year.

是的。再說一次，如果你看一下我們 19% 的全年指導，我們在下半年和進入 2025 年時確實會達到 20%。我們認為這對我們在採取成本行動和如果你按順序看，我應該說，與去年同期相比，大約比23 年高出約1 個百分點，由於有利的定價、較低的溢價供應鏈成本和一點銷售槓桿，毛利率確實在毛利率左右。如果考慮重組收益，從 2024 年開始，收益改善約為 6,000 萬美元，但這被激勵性薪酬所抵消。因此，回到滿載我們今年的激勵薪酬計畫。因此，這兩者在全年中都相互抵消。

Again, if you look at our full year guide for free cash flow, one important milestone was getting back to positive free cash flow, which we did in the fourth quarter. Our guidance of at least $550 million has us above 100% free cash flow conversion, excluding the -- our final Honeywell payment here in the first quarter, and our expectation is for modest decreases in inventory and working capital throughout the year. And there could be some opportunity to exceed if we get back to our optimized inventory levels, but we did not include that in our guidance, just given some of the uncertainty around demand and the mix of that demand.

同樣，如果您查看我們的全年自由現金流指南，您會發現一個重要的里程碑是恢復正自由現金流，我們在第四季度做到了這一點。我們對至少5.5 億美元的指導使我們的自由現金流轉換率超過100%，不包括我們在第一季度向霍尼韋爾支付的最後一筆款項，我們的預期是全年庫存和營運資金將適度減少。如果我們回到優化的庫存水平，可能會有一些超越的機會，但我們沒有將其納入我們的指導中，只是考慮到需求和需求組​​合的一些不確定性。

And our next question today comes from Damian Karas with UBS.

今天我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的達米安卡拉斯。

Thanks for all the color on kind of the demand and what you guys are seeing on the project front. Maybe just a question on these long-term supply commitments that you've been renegotiating. Could you just maybe talk a little bit more about what's happening there? You highlighted 1 particular contract, a $10 million expense impacting gross margin. Is that -- could you just clarify, is that a onetime hit? Or is that going to kind of be a headwind for the next 3 quarters, a little bit of a structural change in your cost structure?

感謝您對需求的所有顏色以及您在項目方面所看到的內容。也許只是關於您一直在重新談判的長期供應承諾的問題。您能多談談那裡發生的事情嗎？您突出顯示了一份特定合同，該合約的費用為 1000 萬美元，影響了毛利率。那是——你能澄清一下，這是一次性的打擊嗎？或者這會成為未來三個季度的逆風，對您的成本結構造成一點結構性變化嗎？

Yes. So just as it relates to the 1 -- that was a onetime charge that's behind us in the fourth quarter with no change in our structural costs or that we did anticipate having moving forward. And we feel like we're, at this point, substantially complete, working with our suppliers around a lot of those longer-term supply agreements, and particularly the ones that we had to entered into in 2021 when we had kind of both a combination of peak demand as well as some of the extended lead times across the supply chain. And you'll actually see that if you look at we have also a 75% decrease in some of our long-term purchase commitments that we have in our 10-K. So again, a lot of great progress by the team working through that throughout the year. And our focus really here this year is around components that we still have at our Tier 1 manufacturers.

是的。因此，正如它與 1 相關的那樣，這是一項一次性費用，我們在第四季度就已經結束了，我們的結構成本沒有變化，或者我們確實預計會向前推進。我們覺得，在這一點上，我們基本上已經完成了與供應商圍繞許多長期供應協議的合作，特別是我們必須在 2021 年簽訂的協議，當時我們有兩種協議的組合高峰需求以及整個供應鏈的有些交貨時間延長。實際上，如果您查看一下，您會發現我們 10-K 中的一些長期購買承諾也減少了 75%。再說一次，團隊在這一年的努力取得了很大的進步。今年我們真正的重點是我們的一級製造商仍然擁有的組件。

So that's a lot around just demand timing, working through that as well as a lot of the great work by the team to redesign those components into existing or new products as well as working with our manufacturing partners just around the safety stock that they hold. So I think we see a lot of progress there. And again, the charge we had in the fourth quarter was really associated with 1 supplier and 1 contract we signed back in 2021. And that was a combination of canceling as well as deferring some of the purchase commitments we had here in 2024 to mitigate some of the working capital pressure as well as it gives us a lot more flexibility around the mix of the components and again, the timing of when we expect to receive those or take -- or accept those components on our balance sheet. So again, we thought it was the right thing to do to kind of get that past us and move forward here as we move into '24.

因此，這很大程度上圍繞著需求時機、團隊的大量工作以及將這些組件重新設計到現有或新產品中的大量工作，以及與我們的製造合作夥伴圍繞他們持有的安全庫存進行合作。所以我認為我們在那裡看到了很多進展。再說一次，我們在第四季度的費用實際上與我們在2021 年簽署的1 家供應商和1 份合約有關。這是取消和推遲我們在2024 年做出的一些採購承諾的組合，以減輕一些影響營運資金壓力的影響，以及它使我們在各個組成部分的組合方面以及我們期望收到或接受這些組成部分的時間安排上具有更大的靈活性。所以，我們再次認為，當我們進入 24 世紀時，我們應該克服這一點並繼續前進。

Got it. And could you just comment on any impacts you're seeing owing to some of the overseas shipping issues like what's happening in the Red Sea and to what extent that might be factored into your guidance?

知道了。您能否評論一下由於一些海外航運問題（例如紅海發生的情況）而看到的任何影響，以及在多大程度上可能會納入您的指導？

Yes, obviously, there's new concerns that we're monitoring with the risk of the escalating tensions in the Red Sea. So we're monitoring the situation, working with our partners Today, we have mitigation plans, again, pending any further escalation of the situation. I think what's important for context is this really primarily impacts our printing business into EMEA. That's where we ship via ocean through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. So again, the vast majority of our products are still air shipped or ocean shipped from the Asia into the West Coast of the U.S. So we think it's -- as of today, it's a modest impact on extended lead times, which we've communicated to our partners, particularly in the EMEA region and a negligible impact expected on margin here in the first quarter.

是的，顯然，我們正在監測紅海緊張局勢升級風險的新擔憂。因此，我們正在與合作夥伴合作，監控局勢。今天，我們再次製定了緩解計劃，以待局勢進一步升級。我認為重要的是，這確實主要影響我們在歐洲、中東和非洲地區的印刷業務。這就是我們透過紅海和蘇伊士運河進行海運的地方。再說一次，我們的絕大多數產品仍然是從亞洲空運或海運到美國西海岸。所以我們認為，截至今天，這對延長交貨時間的影響不大，我們已經傳達了這一點我們的合作夥伴，特別是歐洲、中東和非洲地區的合作夥伴，預計對第一季利潤率的影響可以忽略不計。

And our next question comes from Keith Housum with Northcoast Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Northcoast Research 的 Keith Housum。

Bill and Nathan, is there any reason to believe there's a change to your long-term guidance or an annual growth rate of 5% to 7% over cycle?

Bill 和 Nathan，有什麼理由相信你們的長期指導會發生變化，或者整個週期的年增長率會達到 5% 到 7%？

No, Keith, I think that we would see that the current sales declines are due to a cyclical bottom, really accentuated by the pandemic overall and that our long-term conviction and the strong business fundamentals really remain unchanged. And we think we're well positioned to be -- continue to be the market leader and continue to take share as our markets recover overall. The secular trends really to digitize and automate environments within our customer operations really remain unchanged. They were intact before the pandemic, and they remain intact today. And I think that our strong competitive position we have in the marketplace, especially in our core, the exciting opportunities we have in our adjacent and expansion areas. And quite honestly, we're excited about the future. So despite the near-term headwinds, we don't see that changing. We see the 5% to 7% through cycle what we're committed to and remains intact.

不，基思，我認為我們會看到當前的銷售下降是由於週期性底部，整體大流行確實加劇了這種情況，而我們的長期信念和強勁的業務基本面確實保持不變。我們認為，隨著市場整體復甦，我們有能力繼續成為市場領導者並繼續佔據市場份額。我們客戶營運中環境數位化和自動化的長期趨勢確實保持不變。它們在大流行之前完好無損，今天也完好無損。我認為我們在市場上擁有強大的競爭地位，特別是在我們的核心領域，我們在鄰近和擴展領域擁有令人興奮的機會。老實說，我們對未來感到興奮。因此，儘管近期存在阻力，但我們認為這種情況不會改變。我們看到了我們所承諾的 5% 到 7% 的整個週期，並且保持不變。

Okay. I appreciate that. Just as a quick follow-up. In terms of the software and services, obviously, it's been really resilient for you guys. As you think about that growth or that -- what it does for 2024, can you unpack, I guess, your expectations there as we separate that from the rest of the hardware business?

好的。我很感激。就像快速跟進。顯然，就軟體和服務而言，它對你們來說真的很有彈性。當您思考這種成長或 2024 年會發生什麼時，我想，當我們將其與其他硬體業務分開時，您能解開您的期望嗎？

Yes. I think that we'd say software and service is clearly recurring revenue, right? Similar -- you saw a similar comment we had on supplies, right, which we've talked about as being semi-recurring, right? It's like a recurring business. So clearly, services and software outperformed our broader product portfolio overall. But I say that customers today continuing to strong attach rates on our mobile devices. Also, we're seeing -- this is the negative side of some of the services growth is really people extending service contracts at higher prices, right, that ultimately, we're working closely with them to get their refreshes done within their environment. So that's a target for us starting in kind of second half of '23 and into '24 is really working closely with those customers that are looking to extend service agreements and sweat assets is to get them to move ahead with new technologies and new advantages of our hardware, but that's helping software a bit -- I'm sorry, services a bit in the short term.

是的。我認為我們會說軟體和服務顯然是經常性收入，對吧？類似 - 你看到了我們對供應的類似評論，對吧，我們已經討論過這是半重複的，對吧？這就像是一項經常性的業務。顯然，服務和軟體的整體表現優於我們更廣泛的產品組合。但我想說的是，今天的客戶在我們的行動裝置上的附加率仍然很高。此外，我們還看到，一些服務成長的負面影響是人們以更高的價格延長服務合同，最終，我們將與他們密切合作，在他們的環境中完成更新。因此，我們的目標是從 23 年下半年開始到 24 年，與那些希望延長服務協議和汗水資產的客戶密切合作，讓他們利用新技術和新優勢繼續前進。我們的硬件，但這對軟體有一點幫助－對不起，短期內對服務有一點幫助。

From a software perspective, we're seeing really a compelling value proposition to our customers around what we really brought together is our work cloud software, which is bringing the multiple organic and acquisition assets together to really address the needs that a retail associate. And we talk about that of this modern store framework as an engaged associate. So think of it as communication collaboration, think of it as task management workforce management, demand planning, so marrying that all together into a single application or instance for our customers and be able to really enhance the productivity of the retail worker and that's resonating well with our customers. We had our trade show on our internal event with our user group of our software customers in the second half of the year and rolled out really what we're doing around word cloud and the future of that and they're pretty excited about it. I know, Nate, do you want to add -- I mean the other thing we're focused on is really profitability around those areas and not growing top line, but also profitability in our software business as we bring those together.

從軟體的角度來看，我們真正看到了一個對客戶有吸引力的價值主張，圍繞著我們真正整合的工作雲軟體，它將多種有機資產和收購資產整合在一起，以真正滿足零售員工的需求。我們以一名敬業的員工的身份談論這個現代商店框架。因此，可以將其視為通訊協作，將其視為任務管理、勞動力管理、需求規劃，因此將所有這些結合到我們客戶的單一應用程式或實例中，並且能夠真正提高零售員工的生產力，這引起了很好的共鳴與我們的客戶。今年下半年，我們與軟體客戶的用戶群在內部活動中舉辦了貿易展，並推出了我們圍繞詞雲所做的事情及其未來，他們對此感到非常興奮。我知道，內特，你想補充嗎？我的意思是，我們關注的另一件事是這些領域的真正盈利能力，而不是收入的增長，而是當我們將這些領域整合在一起時，我們軟體業務的獲利能力。

That's right. I think the other -- yes, the bright spot on the service and software is the improved margins. So a lot of great work by the team focus on the cost structure for both of those pieces of the business. So that was a nice improvement as we move to the second half, and it will be a tailwind as we move here into 2024, along with the expectation that those businesses will continue to grow.

這是正確的。我認為另一個——是的，服務和軟體的亮點是利潤率的提高。因此，團隊的許多出色工作都集中在這兩個業務部分的成本結構上。因此，當我們進入下半年時，這是一個很好的進步，當我們進入 2024 年時，這將是一個順風車，同時我們也期望這些業務將繼續成長。

And our next question comes from Brian Drab with William Blair.

我們的下一個問題來自布萊恩·德拉布和威廉·布萊爾。

I just wanted to clarify first on the cost savings. Exactly what is the incremental benefit that we'll see in terms of cost savings, OpEx savings in '24 versus '23 now that we've got these incremental savings coming on in the year, I guess?

我只是想先澄清一下節省成本的問題。我想，既然我們今年已經實現了這些增量節約，那麼我們在 24 年與 23 年相比，在成本節約、營運支出節約方面將看到的增量收益到底是什麼？

Yes. So if you look at our the expanded cost reduction plan at $120 million of net annualized savings, $20 million higher than our prior guide with the additional actions expected to be completed here middle part -- by the middle part of the year, so we realized $50 million of savings in the second half of '23. So we're expecting $60 million of incremental benefit into '24 and then the balance as we head into 2025.

是的。因此，如果你看看我們擴大的成本削減計劃，年化淨節省額為 1.2 億美元，比我們之前的指南高出 2000 萬美元，並且預計將在今年中期完成額外的行動，所以我們意識到2023年下半年省了5000 萬美元。因此，我們預計 24 年將增加 6,000 萬美元的收益，然後在 2025 年實現平衡。

Yes. Perfect, okay.

是的。完美，好吧。

And what we had in the past, they're pretty broad-based across functions. So I'd say a similar with the declines, the incremental amount was similar structure as we had with the first pass in terms of fairly broad-based.

我們過去擁有的，它們的跨職能基礎相當廣泛。因此，我想說，與下降類似，增量的結構與我們在第一次通過時的結構相似，基礎相當廣泛。

Okay. Got it. And that's all in OpEx and won't affect gross margin, I guess. And my next question was just going to be on gross margin. I guess the best assumption here for gross margin as we track through the year would be modest increases in sequential increases in gross margin as we move through the quarters on leverage and anything that you would correct me on there or add to that?

好的。知道了。我猜這一切都在營運支出中，不會影響毛利率。我的下一個問題就是毛利率。我想，當我們追蹤這一年的情況時，對毛利率的最佳假設將是，隨著我們在槓桿方面度過各個季度，毛利率會出現連續增長，您是否會糾正我或補充這一點？

Yes. So I think 1 thing I'd say on the $120 million. There's a small piece of that is in gross margin. So I'd say the vast majority is OpEx. So there's a piece in gross margin just based on some of the actions the supply chain team is taking within our cost structure. So a bit of that is in the $120 million in gross margin. But I'd say for modeling purposes, I'd assume the vast majority is in OpEx. But you're absolutely right. In terms of the sequential improvement in gross margin, our EBITDA rate throughout the year is primarily going to be driven by gross margin, both as some of the actions we've taken around pricing, the lower prime supply chain cost, which is, I guess, really here in the first quarter, but also a little bit of volume leverage, project timing as we move through the year. So yes, there's a that's what we'd expect through the year as a kind of modest improvement as we go through the year to get us to where we have as an exit point in the fourth quarter.

是的。所以我想就 1.2 億美元說一件事。其中一小部分是毛利率。所以我想說絕大多數是營運支出。因此，毛利率中有一部分只是基於供應鏈團隊在我們的成本結構內採取的一些行動。其中一部分是 1.2 億美元的毛利率。但我想說，出於建模目的，我假設絕大多數都在營運支出中。但你是絕對正確的。就毛利率的連續改善而言，我們全年的 EBITDA 率主要由毛利率驅動，這既是我們圍繞定價採取的一些行動，也是降低主要供應鏈成本，即，我我猜，確實是在第一季度，但也有一點數量槓桿，隨著我們全年的發展，專案時間也有所增加。所以，是的，這就是我們預計今年會出現的一種適度的改善，讓我們在第四季度達到退出點。

And our next question comes from Rob Mason with Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自 Rob Mason 和 Baird。

I wanted to circle back, Bill. You mentioned several times customers willing to sweat their assets more right now, which, again, we've seen that in the past during these downturn periods. It sounds like you're trying to address that some with service strategies. I'm curious if you're testing any other strategies around trying to stimulate new product demand, whether your customers might be more amenable to as service or subscription or, say, leasing type arrangements in this period of time? And then maybe relatedly, is there anything as you look into, say, the 2018-2019 devices that were put into the installed base -- anything on the horizon that would more catalyze their replacement, just where they can't be upgraded any further anything of that nature?

我想繞回來，比爾。您多次提到客戶現在願意更多地投入他們的資產，我們在過去的經濟低迷時期也看到過這一點。聽起來您正在嘗試透過服務策略來解決某些問題。我很好奇您是否正在測試任何其他旨在刺激新產品需求的策略，您的客戶在這段時間內是否更願意接受服務或訂閱，或租賃類型的安排？然後，也許相關的是，當你研究2018-2019年安裝的設備時，有沒有什麼東西——即將出現的任何東西會更能促進它們的更換，只是在它們無法進一步升級的地方有那種性質的東西嗎？

Rob. So a couple of things kind of weaved into that. I would say, first, that our sales teams are working and our partners closely with those customers that we have identified that are -- have the devices in there, in use longer than normal and working closely with them to understand how we can convince them to move forward with upgrades and lots of different ways to go do that. And -- but the driver really would be a couple of areas. One would be technology transitions. So I think 4G to 5G and wireless think of faster WiFi speeds like WiFi 6, OS upgrade. So as the devices become older, then there's Android releases aren't available. And then along with that, we extend the security with that OS so long, but eventually, the security patches aren't available. So from a security perspective, that's a driver as well.

搶。所以有幾件事交織在一起。我想說，首先，我們的銷售團隊和我們的合作夥伴正在與我們確定的客戶密切合作，這些客戶擁有設備，使用時間比正常情況要長，並與他們密切合作，以了解我們如何說服他們推進升級以及許多不同的方法來做到這一點。而且——但驅動因素確實是幾個面向。其中之一就是技術轉型。所以我認為 4G 到 5G 和無線會想到更快的 WiFi 速度，像是 WiFi 6、作業系統升級。因此，隨著設備變舊，Android 版本將不再可用。同時，我們將該作業系統的安全性延長了很長時間，但最終，安全修補程式不可用。因此，從安全角度來看，這也是一個驅動程式。

The other place is really around use case expansion, right? So that adding more functionality of the devices, things like authentication of facial recognition, think of Zebra Pay integrated RFID on those devices we're going to release here shortly. Over time, we'll be releasing. We showed this at the National Retail Federation Show generative AI large language models on the actual devices and an assistant. So we want this to really be about productivity and wanting more features and functionality within their environment versus just around security, right? And we're seeing that.

另一個地方確實是圍繞著用例擴展，對吧？因此，要為裝置添加更多功能，例如臉部辨識身份驗證，請考慮在我們即將在此發布的裝置上整合 Zebra Pay 的 RFID。隨著時間的推移，我們將發布。我們在全國零售聯合會展示了實際設備和助手上的生成式人工智慧大語言模型。因此，我們希望這能真正與生產力有關，並希望在其環境中提供更多特性和功能，而不是僅僅圍繞安全性，對吧？我們也看到了這一點。

I would say that in the area of leasing, what we're looking at is opportunities to marry our software with hardware, and we demonstrated some of this at the National Retail show as well is that Think of a wearable device that has our task management software, communication collaboration on that wearable device in retail, which would be sold as a service kind of offering to our customers. So not quite a lease. In most cases, our customers say, "Hey, I can -- I'd rather spend the capital than lease." But in this case, it would be an OpEx recurring revenue stream around software and hardware combined together. So sales teams have a lot of different plays they're running to try to move those customers forward with upgrades.

我想說，在租賃領域，我們正在尋找將我們的軟體與硬體結合的機會，我們也在全國零售展上展示了其中的一些內容，想想具有我們的任務管理功能的可穿戴設備軟體，零售中穿戴式裝置上的通訊協作，這將作為一種服務出售給我們的客戶。所以不完全是租約。在大多數情況下，我們的客戶會說：“嘿，我可以——我寧願花這筆錢也不願租賃。”但在這種情況下，這將是圍繞軟體和硬體結合在一起的營運支出經常性收入流。因此，銷售團隊採取了許多不同的策略來嘗試推動這些客戶進行升級。

That's helpful. Just as a follow-up, could you just comment on what you're seeing in some of these underpenetrated markets where perhaps you do have more runway, and I'm thinking Japan and government specifically just what the current tone of business is there.

這很有幫助。作為後續行動，您能否評論一下您在一些滲透不足的市場中所看到的情況，這些市場也許確實有更多的發展空間，我正在考慮日本和政府，特別是當前的商業基調。

Yes, Rob, I'd say that there are opportunities for us as we look around the globe, and we have different market shares those are 2 good examples of really significantly lower share than we have in other places. But as we look at each vertical market, as we look at each geography, we see places where we can continue to take share as a business. Japan is a great opportunity for us, as we've talked about for a while, second largest market in Asia, we won the largest postal carrier there. We've won the largest retailer, we now have the attention of some of the largest integrators -- system integrators and cellular carriers in Japan to work in some new opportunities there beyond retail and postal. So those have gotten some more attention and we've changed our channel strategy there a bit to large work with larger SIs.

是的，羅布，我想說，當我們放眼全球時，我們有機會，而且我們擁有不同的市場份額，這是我們的份額明顯低於其他地方的兩個很好的例子。但當我們審視每個垂直市場、審視每個地區時，我們看到了我們可以繼續作為一項業務獲得份額的地方。日本對我們來說是一個很好的機會，正如我們已經談論了一段時間的那樣，它是亞洲第二大市場，我們贏得了那裡最大的郵政運營商。我們已經贏得了最大的零售商，現在我們吸引了一些最大的整合商——日本的系統整合商和行動電信商的注意，以便在零售和郵政之外的一些新機會中開展工作。因此，這些已經得到了更多的關注，我們已經改變了我們的通路策略，以與更大的 SI 進行大規模合作。

We've just hired a new sales leader. If we look at government in the U.S., a new sales leader there is the refocus on government and building our partner community and expanding our reach inside government opportunities that includes public safety. So we're excited about these markets because we have low share, and we know there's opportunities for our portfolio within those underserved markets.

我們剛聘請了一位新的銷售主管。如果我們看看美國的政府，新的銷售領導者會重新關注政府和建立我們的合作夥伴社區，並擴大我們在包括公共安全在內的政府機會中的影響力。因此，我們對這些市場感到興奮，因為我們的份額較低，而且我們知道我們的投資組合在那些服務不足的市場中存在機會。

And our next question today comes from Jim Ricchiuti with Needham & Company.

今天我們的下一個問題來自 Needham & Company 的 Jim Ricchiuti。

This is Chris Grenga on for Jim. Maybe just 1 for me. You had mentioned the trend of new automation use cases in RFID and machine vision could you talk about what you expect from these technologies in 2024? And what use cases are you having the most productive conversations with customers currently?

我是克里斯·格倫加 (Chris Grenga) 替吉姆 (Jim) 發言。也許對我來說只有 1。您提到了 RFID 和機器視覺領域新自動化用例的趨勢，您能談談您對 2024 年這些技術的期望嗎？目前您與客戶進行最富有成效的對話的用例是什麼？

Chris, maybe start with RFID. We're continuing to see strong interest across many customers and verticals. We've seen the opportunity to expand beyond retail apparel really into track and trace, supply chains, parcel tracking, baggage tracking tools, work in progress in manufacturing, health care opportunities, all with RFID. Certainly, Walmart and what UPS is doing inside smart package into their environment has caused others to continue to look at the -- their interest in RFID. The cost of the tags coming down in the -- has created opportunity because today, we have the broadest and deepest set of RFID solutions in the market. And that includes fixed readers, handheld readers, industrial and mobile printers, software and the label to go along with that. So we've seen strong double-digit growth over the past few years in RFID, including in 2023. And we are excited about the opportunity across everything we do in RFID.

克里斯，也許可以從 RFID 開始。我們繼續看到許多客戶和垂直行業的濃厚興趣。我們已經看到了超越零售服裝的機會，真正擴展到追蹤和追蹤、供應鏈、包裹追蹤、行李追蹤工具、製造過程中的工作、醫療保健機會，所有這些都可以使用 RFID。當然，沃爾瑪和 UPS 在其環境中引入智慧包裹的做法已經引起其他人繼續關注他們對 RFID 的興趣。標籤成本的下降創造了機會，因為今天我們擁有市場上最廣泛、最深入的 RFID 解決方案。其中包括固定閱讀器、手持閱讀器、工業和行動印表機、軟體以及與之配套的標籤。因此，過去幾年，包括 2023 年在內，我們看到 RFID 領域實現了兩位數的強勁增長。我們對 RFID 領域所做的一切工作中的機會感到興奮。

I would say in machine vision really focused in 2 areas: manufacturing and transportation logistics. From a manufacturing perspective, automotive, food and beverage, inside logistics, it's really about warehouse and distribution. We combined our organic investment really with a few acquisitions of Matrox and Adaptive Vision. That's really given us a broad differentiated offering across those markets and creates opportunities for us to win and what we see as a fragmented multibillion-dollar market opportunity for us. our value proposition really is around marrying software and hardware together and giving a unified software platform to our customers and easy to set up, easy to upgrade really to drive simplicity, speed, efficiency within our customers' organizations that allow them to automate in an easier way and upgrade that automation from things like fixed industrial scanning to machine vision. So we're excited about both these opportunities. We are the leaders in RFID reading today. We're a challenger in the machine vision market, and we see both being a tremendous opportunity for Zebra.

我想說，機器視覺真正關注兩個領域：製造和運輸物流。從製造業的角度來看，汽車、食品和飲料、內部物流，其實都是關於倉庫和分銷的。我們將我們的有機投資與 Matrox 和 Adaptive Vision 的一些收購真正結合起來。這確實為我們在這些市場提供了廣泛的差異化產品，並為我們創造了獲勝的機會，並為我們創造了一個分散的數十億美元的市場機會。我們的價值主張實際上是將軟體和硬體結合在一起，為我們的客戶提供一個統一的軟體平台，並且易於設定、易於升級，真正推動我們客戶組織的簡單性、速度和效率，使他們能夠更輕鬆地實現自動化方式並將自動化從固定工業掃描等升級到機器視覺。因此，我們對這兩個機會感到興奮。我們是當今 RFID 讀取領域的領導者。我們是機器視覺市場的挑戰者，我們認為這對 Zebra 來說都是一個巨大的機會。

And our next question today comes from Ken Newman at KeyBanc Capital Markets.

今天我們的下一個問題來自 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Ken Newman。

First question here. Just looking at R&D expense, I know it -- saw that it took a sequential step down this quarter for 3Q. Just as I think about this first quarter guide in the full year, how should we think about the cadence of R&D dollars as we move through the year? And is there maybe more room to take out there as we progress after the first quarter?

第一個問題在這裡。只要看看研發費用，我就知道了——看到第三季它連續下降。正如我思考全年第一季指南一樣，我們該如何思考全年研發資金的節奏？隨著第一季的進展，我們是否還有更多的空間可以利用？

Yes. So I think a couple of things. Just some of the sequential decline from Q3 to Q4 was related to the cost actions that we took and just the timing of those rolling into the P&L, which is, again, what we had expected coming into the quarter. You'll see it increase a bit here as we go through '24 just as we reset comp plans and things like that around incentive compensation. And typically, the first half is a little more front-end loaded just with the timing of projects and deployments. And then Q4 is always a little light just with holidays and whatnot from a project execution. So I think I would think of similar trajectory from a sequential perspective as we move through the year, but maybe a bit of an uptick just as we kind of again reset all of our comp plans and whatnot for the year.

是的。所以我想有幾件事。從第三季到第四季的連續下降，部分與我們採取的成本行動以及這些行動計入損益表的時間有關，這也是我們對本季的預期。當我們進入 24 世紀時，您會看到它有所增加，就像我們重置補償計劃以及圍繞激勵薪酬之類的事情一樣。通常，前半部會載入更多的前端內容，僅包含專案和部署的時間表。然後第四季總是有點輕鬆，只是因為假期和專案執行之類的事情。因此，我認為，當我們度過這一年時，我會從連續的角度考慮類似的軌跡，但也許會有所上升，就像我們再次重置今年所有的補償計劃等一樣。

Got it. That's helpful. And then for my follow-up, with free cash flow improving this year and you being at the top and a leverage target range, what is the midpoint of guidance like here for where you think net leverage ends up relative to debt paydown? And am I right in assuming that the priority for capital deployment will be towards the debt side? Or is there other portions or avenues that you see a better return for that capital?

知道了。這很有幫助。然後，對於我的後續行動，隨著今年自由現金流的改善，並且您處於最高水平且槓桿目標範圍，您認為淨槓桿相對於債務償還的最終指導中點是多少？我關於資本配置優先考慮債務的假設是否正確？或者您認為該資本是否有其他部分或途徑可以獲得更好的回報？

Yes. So as you mentioned, we ended the quarter at 2.5x debt leverage, which is at the high end of our target range. We are prioritizing debt paydown of our variable rate debt here in the short term. And we would expect the debt leverage to increase a bit here through the first and second quarter really just as we lap on the profitability side, not so much debt will come down, but the ratio will increase, but then will decline through the second half as we kind of lap Q3 and Q4's lower profitability. And so that is really the priority here starting out the year as debt pay down but as always, we're going to reassess overall capital deployment and opportunities we have, whether that's share buyback or M&A as the year progresses.

是的。正如您所提到的，本季末我們的債務槓桿為 2.5 倍，這是我們目標範圍的高端。我們在短期內優先考慮償還可變利率債務。我們預計第一季和第二季的債務槓桿率會略有增加，就像我們關注盈利能力一樣，債務不會下降太多，但比率會增加，但下半年會下降因為我們有點經歷了第三季度和第四季較低的獲利能力。因此，隨著債務償還，這確實是今年開始的首要任務，但與往常一樣，我們將重新評估整體資本部署和我們擁有的機會，無論是股票回購還是隨著時間的推移進行併購。

And ladies and gentlemen, this concludes our question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Burns for any closing remarks.

女士們、先生們，我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉回給伯恩斯先生做總結發言。

Thank you. As we look towards the long term, the opportunity for Zebra is bright. I'd just like to thank our customers, our partners and employees for their support. We look forward to returning to growth in 2024. Have a good day, everyone.

謝謝。從長遠來看，斑馬技術的機會是光明的。我只想感謝我們的客戶、合作夥伴和員工的支持。我們期待 2024 年恢復成長。祝大家有美好的一天。

Thank you, sir. This concludes today's conference call. We thank you all for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect your lines, and have a wonderful day.

謝謝你，先生。今天的電話會議到此結束。我們感謝大家參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開線路，度過美好的一天。