Block, Inc. (XYZ) 2026 Q3 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

  1. 摘要
    • Q3 營收與獲利全面超越指引,毛利年增 22% 至 32.4 億美元,調整後營業利益年增 92% 至 9.23 億美元,調整後 EPS 年增 109% 至 1.13 美元,均創下新高。
    • 上修 2026 年指引:毛利、調整後營業利益與調整後 EPS 全面調升,2026 年毛利年增 22%、營業利益率 28%,2027 年預期毛利續增 15%、營業利益率 32%。
    • 市場反應未於逐字稿揭露。
  2. 成長動能 & 風險
    • 成長動能:
      • Square 事業群 GPV 年增 14%,美國與國際市場、餐飲與中型市場等重點垂直領域均有 20% 以上成長。
      • Cash App 毛利年增 27%,月活躍用戶(MAU)達 6000 萬,Neighborhoods、家庭用戶、產品創新(如 Tags)與行銷投資帶動用戶與參與度提升。
      • Cash App 消費者貸款放款量年增 40% 至 190 億美元,Afterpay 相關產品放款量年增與季增均超過三倍,且變動利潤率維持高檔。
      • AI 能力(Buzz、Builderlab、Dessa 等)開始對內外部商業化,預計 Q4 首度產生 AI 收入,長線看好成為新成長引擎。
      • Neighborhoods 年化 GPV 六至九月成長近五倍,帶動 Cash App 新增活躍用戶,且用戶黏著度高。
    • 風險:
      • 貸款產品組合調整(如四週轉六週)短期壓抑放款量增速,且風險損失率因產品組合變化有所波動。
      • 新產品(如 Neighborhoods、Builderlab、Squaremates)仍處早期階段,未來成效具不確定性。
      • 競爭環境激烈,AI 代理人與新型態金融科技公司持續搶占市場,需持續創新與差異化。
  3. 核心 KPI / 事業群
    • 毛利:Q3 年增 22% 至 32.4 億美元,創新高。
    • 調整後營業利益:Q3 年增 92% 至 9.23 億美元,營業利益率 29%。
    • 調整後 EPS:Q3 年增 109% 至 1.13 美元。
    • Square GPV:Q3 年增 14%,為 2023 Q1 以來最高增速。
    • Square 毛利:Q3 年增 14%,與 GPV 增速一致。
    • Cash App 毛利:Q3 年增 27%。
    • Cash App MAU:9 月達 6000 萬,年增 4%。
    • Neighborhoods 年化 GPV:6 月至 9 月成長近 5 倍。
    • Cash App 消費者貸款放款量:Q3 年增 40% 至 190 億美元。
    • Afterpay 放款量:後置型與預置型產品年增與季增均超過三倍。
  4. 財務預測
    • 2026 年毛利預估 126.26 億美元,年增 22%。
    • 2026 年調整後營業利益預估 35.19 億美元,營業利益率 28%。
    • 2026 年調整後 EPS 預估 4.15 美元,年增 75%。
    • 2027 年預期毛利續增至少 15%,營業利益率 32%,營業利益年增 30%。
    • CapEx 未於逐字稿揭露。
  5. 法人 Q&A
    • Q: Builderlab 的願景、產品策略、目標客群與營收模式為何?
      A: Builderlab 將 Block 內部所有 AI 工具整合成一個強大易用的平台,內部將取代多數第三方工具,也將對外開放給各規模企業使用。Buzz 1.0 是核心介面,預計 Q4 開始有 AI 工具營收,會彈性測試多種收費模式,持續收集市場回饋。
    • Q: 2027 年毛利與營業利益率提升的主要動能?Square 與 Cash App 各自貢獻為何?
      A: Square 透過多元通路(自助註冊、ISO、直銷)、產品創新(如 Kiosk、Squaremates)與 SaaS/銀行產品附加率提升,預期 GPV 連三年加速。Cash App 以 Neighborhoods、家庭用戶、產品創新與消費金融推動用戶與毛利成長。2027 年成長預期主要來自現有產品與已啟動新計畫,尚未納入 nascent 新事業貢獻。
    • Q: Square 業務加速的投資重點與未來規劃?
      A: 美國與國際市場、餐飲與中型市場等重點垂直領域均有 20% 以上成長。自助註冊新量創十年新高,ISO 通路新賣家季增 90%,一年內從 0 成長到 400 個合作夥伴,仍有很大成長空間。直銷與企業客戶持續拓展,軟體附加率僅 16%,未來提升空間大。
    • Q: Cash App 貸款產品調整(四週轉六週)對放款量與利潤的影響?未來成長動能?
      A: 六週產品毛利率更高、用戶留存更佳,雖短期壓抑放款量(每用戶放款次數季減 7%),但長期有助於利潤與用戶價值提升。未來成長動能包括提高貸款額度、Afterpay 產品放量、用戶基礎擴大,以及 Cash App Score 外部授權。
    • Q: Neighborhoods 對用戶成長與 GPV 穿透率的貢獻?投資規劃為何?
      A: Neighborhoods 已帶動 50 萬活躍用戶,約半數為新增用戶,年化 GPV 六至九月成長近五倍。未來將擴大賣家覆蓋、深化與 Square 其他產品整合,並逐步開放給所有 Cash App 用戶。現階段由 Block 補貼獎勵,行銷成本效率高,未來可望由賣家共同分擔。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 AI 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Matthew Ross - Head of Investor Relations

    Matthew Ross - Head of Investor Relations

  • Thank you all for joining today's call. We have Jack and Amrita with us today, along with Owen Jennings, our business lead; and Juan Hernandez, Head of Credit and Underwriting.

    感謝各位參加今天的電話會議。今天與會的有 Jack 和 Amrita,以及我們的業務負責人 Owen Jennings,還有信貸與核保主管 Juan Hernandez。

  • Today's discussion includes forward-looking statements regarding our strategy, guidance, and long-term goals. Actual results may differ materially due to risks and uncertainties described in materials filed and furnished with the SEC and should not be considered an indication of future performance. These statements speak only as of today, and we undertake no obligation to update them, except as required by law.

    今天的討論包含有關我們策略、指引與長期目標的前瞻性陳述。由於向 SEC 提交與提供之資料中所述的風險與不確定性,實際結果可能出現重大差異,且不應被視為未來表現的指標。這些陳述僅截至今日為止有效,除法律要求外,我們不承擔更新義務。

  • Reconciliations of any non-GAAP financial measures that we discuss to the most directly comparable GAAP measures are available in our shareholder letter. Further, any discussion of our lending and banking products refer to products offered through Square Financial Services or our bank partners.

    我們所討論之任何非 GAAP 財務衡量指標與最直接可比之 GAAP 指標的調節表,已載於我們的股東信中。此外,任何關於我們放款與銀行產品的討論,均指透過 Square Financial Services 或我們的銀行合作夥伴所提供的產品。

  • As we did last quarter, throughout the call, I will ask questions based on topics our shareholders ask us to explore. With that, over to you, Jack.

    如同上季一樣,在整場電話會議中,我將根據股東希望我們深入探討的主題提出問題。接下來交給你,Jack。

  • Jack Dorsey - Chairperson of the Board, Principal Executive Officer, Block Head

    Jack Dorsey - Chairperson of the Board, Principal Executive Officer, Block Head

  • Thank you all for joining us. We had a strong third quarter, exceeding our guidance and raising our outlook for the year. We had a strong quarter in Cash App, and we continue to accelerate in Square with US GPV growth more than doubling over the past two years as we've expanded distribution and accelerated product velocity. In my letter this quarter, I focused on the intelligence capabilities we're building for our customers across Square Kiosk, Squaremates and Moneybot.

    感謝各位加入我們。我們第三季表現強勁,超越指引並上調全年展望。Cash App 本季表現亮眼;同時我們在 Square 也持續加速,隨著我們擴大通路並加快產品推出速度,美國 GPV 成長在過去兩年多於倍增。我在本季的信中,聚焦於我們正為客戶打造的智慧能力,涵蓋 Square Kiosk、Squaremates 與 Moneybot。

  • I also shared more about the path we're going down to make our company an intelligence and how we plan to enable others to do the same. Buzz is an environment for building and collaborating that brings all of our ideas together in one surface. We're now beginning to bring Buzz and the related tools we built for Block to other companies through Builderlab, our new ecosystem.

    我也分享了我們正走在一條路上,將公司打造為一個「智慧體」,以及我們計畫如何讓其他人也能做到同樣的事。Buzz 是一個用於建置與協作的環境,能把我們所有想法匯聚在同一個介面上。我們現在開始透過 Builderlab(我們新的生態系),把 Buzz 以及我們為 Block 打造的相關工具帶給其他公司。

  • We're excited to share more about Builderlab at our November 10th event, and I hope you'll tune in. We're also building new ways for people to interact with intelligence. We believe voice is the most natural interface to interact with intelligence. And a few weeks ago, we shared Dessa, our full-duplex speech model. It captures the emotion, nuance, and natural cadence of conversation.

    我們很期待在 11 月 10 日的活動上分享更多 Builderlab 的內容,也希望各位收看。我們也在打造人們與智慧互動的新方式。我們相信語音是與智慧互動最自然的介面。而在幾週前,我們發布了 Dessa——我們的全雙工語音模型。它能捕捉對話中的情緒、細微差異與自然語調節奏。

  • I encourage you all to listen to the samples we shared two weeks ago. We're transforming our company from one that creates traditional financial products into one that streams intelligence as people need it.

    我鼓勵各位去聆聽我們兩週前分享的示範音檔。我們正把公司從打造傳統金融產品,轉型為在人們需要時即時輸送智慧的公司。

  • Thank you for your support along the way, and thank you for investing in our future. And with that, I'll turn it over to Amrita.

    感謝各位一路以來的支持,也感謝各位投資我們的未來。接下來我把時間交給 Amrita。

  • Amrita Ahuja - Foundational Lead, Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer and People Lead

    Amrita Ahuja - Foundational Lead, Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer and People Lead

  • Thanks, Jack. We delivered another strong quarter, outperforming all our guided metrics. A few of the highlights. Gross profit grew 22% year-over-year to $3.24 billion. Adjusted operating income grew 92% year-over-year to $923 million or a record 29% margin.

    謝謝你,Jack。我們再度交出強勁的一季,所有指引指標皆優於預期。以下是幾項重點。毛利年增 22% 至 32.4 億美元。調整後營業利益年增 92% 至 9.23 億美元,或創紀錄的 29% 利潤率。

  • And adjusted EPS more than doubled, growing 109% year-over-year to $1.13, also a quarterly record for us. Square GPV growth accelerated to 14% year-over-year in the third quarter, our strongest growth rate since the first quarter of 2023. Our go-to-market strategies are working. And through September, we've launched new products and features at a faster pace than we have in the past two years combined.

    調整後 EPS 也超過倍增,年增 109% 至 1.13 美元,同樣創下我們的單季紀錄。Square 的 GPV 成長在第三季加速至年增 14%,為自 2023 年第一季以來的最高成長率。我們的上市推廣(go-to-market)策略正在奏效。截至 9 月,我們推出新產品與功能的速度,已快於過去兩年合計。

  • We have also ramped investments across each distribution channel this year. Year-to-date through August, self-onboarding new volume added grew at its fastest rate in over a decade. Field sales won upmarket sellers in the US and internationally, and we have more than 400 ISO partners, expanding the number of sellers we can reach. Square gross profit grew 14% year-over-year, in line with GPV growth, driven by volume growth, increased software adoption and Square Loans growth.

    今年我們也在各個通路加大投資。截至 8 月的年初至今,自助上線(self-onboarding)新增交易量的成長,達到十多年來最快速度。外勤銷售在美國與國際市場贏得更多中大型(upmarket)商戶;同時我們擁有超過 400 家 ISO 合作夥伴,擴大我們可觸及的商戶數。Square 毛利年增 14%,與 GPV 成長一致,主要由交易量成長、軟體採用率提升以及 Square Loans 成長所帶動。

  • We expect gross profit to grow roughly in line with GPV in the fourth quarter. Cash App gross profit grew 27% year-over-year in the third quarter. Monthly transacting actives grew 4% year-over-year to 60 million in September with Neighborhoods a key contributor.

    我們預期第四季毛利成長將大致與 GPV 同步。Cash App 毛利在第三季年增 27%。9 月的月度交易活躍用戶(monthly transacting actives)年增 4% 至 6,000 萬,其中 Neighborhoods 是主要貢獻因素。

  • We have conviction in our actives growth strategies and expect to grow actives by at least low single digits in 2027 with Neighborhoods, Cash App families, product innovation like Tags and go-to-market investments all contributing to our growth expectations.

    我們對活躍用戶成長策略深具信心,並預期到 2027 年,在 Neighborhoods、Cash App families、如 Tags 等產品創新,以及上市推廣投資的共同帶動下,活躍用戶至少可達低個位數成長。

  • We continue to be focused on deepening engagement as we grow actives. Cash App Commerce Enablement gross profit grew 27% year-over-year, driven by higher buy now, pay later adoption on Cash App Card. Financial Solutions gross profit grew 36% year-over-year on borrower origination growth and strong returns.

    在擴大活躍用戶的同時,我們仍專注於深化用戶參與度。Cash App Commerce Enablement 毛利年增 27%,主要由 Cash App Card 上「先買後付」採用率提升所帶動。Financial Solutions 毛利年增 36%,受惠於借款人放款發放(origination)成長與強勁報酬。

  • Cash App consumer lending origination volume grew 40% year-over-year to $19 billion, with Afterpay post-purchase origination volume more than tripling year-over-year and prepurchase origination volume more than tripling quarter-over-quarter.

    Cash App 消費者放款的發放量年增 40% 至 190 億美元,其中 Afterpay 的購後(post-purchase)發放量年增逾三倍,而購前(prepurchase)發放量季增亦逾三倍。

  • Returns on our lending products continue to be strong in the third quarter. Variable profit margins were consistent with the prior year period, even on a much larger base. In our investor slides this quarter, we shared monthly cohorted returns for mature borrow customers. This is an important metric we use to evaluate our performance. And as you can see, we observed consistent strong returns as we've dramatically grown originations.

    我們放款產品在第三季的報酬表現持續強勁。即使在更大的基礎上,變動利潤率仍與去年同期一致。在本季投資人簡報中,我們分享了成熟借款客群按月分群(monthly cohorted)的報酬。這是我們用來評估表現的重要指標。如各位所見,隨著我們大幅提升放款發放量,我們仍觀察到一致且強勁的報酬。

  • We also shared target unit economics for Cash App's consumer lending products. While changes to our product mix have driven shifts in aggregate risk loss rates, what we optimize for is variable profit returns and product unit economics. And the products that are scaling originations the fastest and therefore, growing in our mix have the strongest targeted variable profit margins and returns.

    我們也分享了 Cash App 消費者放款產品的目標單位經濟(unit economics)。雖然產品組合的變化帶動整體風險損失率的變動,但我們優化的重點是變動利潤報酬與產品單位經濟。而目前發放量擴張最快、因此在組合中占比提升的產品,具備最強的目標變動利潤率與報酬。

  • We delivered record adjusted operating income this quarter while continuing to invest in the long-term growth of our business. Margins expanded more than 10-percentage-points year-over-year, and we grew adjusted operating income 92%, even as we leaned into investments across go-to-market, Neighborhoods and AI. Our core go-to-market motions continue to deliver strong ROI across Cash App and Square as we scale investments, and we're excited to keep investing to sustain long-term growth.

    本季我們在持續投資業務長期成長的同時,創下調整後營業利益新高。利潤率年增擴張超過 10 個百分點;即便我們加大在上市推廣、Neighborhoods 與 AI 的投資,調整後營業利益仍成長 92%。我們核心的上市推廣動能在 Cash App 與 Square 皆持續帶來強勁的投資報酬率(ROI);隨著我們擴大投資,我們也很期待持續投入以支撐長期成長。

  • Annualized GPV of sellers on Neighborhoods increased nearly 5 times from June to September, and we expect to continue to grow Neighborhoods further. We're also leaning into investments in AI and expect to generate our first AI revenue in the fourth quarter as we begin to externalize Block's AI capabilities and interfaces across Builderlab and Buzz.

    Neighborhoods 上商戶的年化 GPV 自 6 月至 9 月增加近 5 倍,我們預期將持續推動 Neighborhoods 進一步成長。我們也加大對 AI 的投資,並預期在第四季開始將 Block 的 AI 能力與介面透過 Builderlab 與 Buzz 對外提供之際,產生我們的第一筆 AI 營收。

  • We're raising our 2026 guidance across gross profit, adjusted operating income and adjusted diluted EPS, flowing through Q3 outperformance and raising our expectations for the fourth quarter. For the full year, we now expect gross profit of $12.626 billion, up 22% year-over-year, adjusted operating income of $3.519 billion or a 28% margin. We also expect adjusted diluted EPS of $4.15, up 75% year-over-year. For the fourth quarter, we expect year-over-year gross profit growth of over 15%, adjusted operating income margin of 30% and year-over-year adjusted diluted EPS growth of 77%.

    我們上調 2026 年在毛利、調整後營業利益與調整後稀釋 EPS 的指引,反映第三季優於預期的表現,並提高對第四季的預期。就全年而言,我們目前預期毛利為 126.26 億美元,年增 22%;調整後營業利益為 35.19 億美元,或 28% 利潤率。我們也預期調整後稀釋 EPS 為 4.15 美元,年增 75%。就第四季而言,我們預期毛利年增超過 15%,調整後營業利益率為 30%,以及調整後稀釋 EPS 年增 77%。

  • In past years, we've given some early visibility into our preliminary expectations for the following year on our third quarter earnings call. This year, we wanted to provide deeper insight into our growth and margin expectations for next year. A year ago, we initially guided to achieving Rule of 40 in 2026 with 17% gross profit growth and 23% adjusted operating income margin.

    過去幾年,我們通常會在第三季財報電話會議上,提前分享對下一年度初步預期的一些能見度。今年,我們希望更深入說明我們對明年成長與利潤率的預期。一年前,我們最初指引為在 2026 年達成「40 法則」,其中毛利成長 17%,調整後營業利益率為 23%。

  • Our updated guidance reflects meaningful outperformance compared to those initial expectations, implying Rule of 50 with 22% gross profit growth and 28% adjusted operating income margin. In 2027, we expect to sustain the momentum we've observed in 2026 with at least 15% year-over-year gross profit growth and adjusted operating income margins of 32% or 30% year-over-year adjusted operating income growth.

    我們更新後的指引顯示,相較於上述初始預期有顯著超越,意味著可達成「50 法則」,其中毛利成長 22%,調整後營業利益率為 28%。在 2027 年,我們預期可延續 2026 年所觀察到的動能,毛利至少年增 15%,且調整後營業利益率為 32%,或調整後營業利益年增 30%。

  • This growth and margin expansion is a strong demonstration of our commitment to delivering durable, profitable growth at scale. As always, we strive to outperform our preliminary growth expectations. In 2026 and 2027, gross profit outlook is 5% ahead of our Investor Day expectations. And our 2026 and 2027 adjusted operating income outlook are both one year ahead of schedule compared to our Investor Day expectations.

    這樣的成長與利潤率擴張,強而有力地展現我們致力於以規模化方式交付可持續、具獲利性的成長。一如既往,我們力求超越我們的初步成長預期。在 2026 與 2027 年,毛利展望較我們投資人日(Investor Day)的預期高出 5%。而我們 2026 與 2027 年的調整後營業利益展望,相較投資人日的預期也都提前一年達成。

  • Given the strong incremental margins and high-return investment opportunities we see, we plan to reinvest profit upside in long-term strategic growth initiatives like Neighborhoods and Builderlab, where we -- which we believe will shape Block for the next decade.

    鑑於我們所看到的強勁增量利潤率與高報酬投資機會,我們計畫將超出預期的利潤再投入於長期策略性成長計畫,例如 Neighborhoods 與 Builderlab;我們相信這些將在未來十年形塑 Block。

  • We'll seek fast feedback loops and scale these new growth vectors with the same discipline and rigor we apply to our core growth investments. We'll share more about our financial expectations for 2027 on our Q4 earnings call in February. Our path forward is clear. We're moving faster, delivering more for our customers, and connecting our ecosystems while delivering margin expansion and profitable growth.

    我們將尋求快速回饋迴圈,並以我們對核心成長投資一貫的紀律與嚴謹,擴大這些新的成長動能。我們將在 2 月的第四季財報電話會議上,分享更多關於 2027 年的財務預期。我們前進的路徑很清楚。我們正加速前進,為客戶交付更多價值,並在連結我們的生態系統的同時,實現利潤率擴張與獲利性成長。

  • With that, I'd like to open up the call to Q&A.

    接下來,我想開放進入問答環節。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Tien-Tsin Huang, JPMorgan.

    (接線員指示) 摩根大通(JPMorgan)的 Tien-Tsin Huang。

  • Tien-Tsin Huang - Analyst

    Tien-Tsin Huang - Analyst

  • Thanks for the preliminary '27 look and some of the new disclosures, Slide 13 is great. So thanks for that. Jack, I wanted to ask you about Builderlab, if you don't mind, just as that new ecosystem, as you called out, sounds really intriguing. Tell us, how should investors think about the size of that opportunity over time? I assume what we see now in terms of what you're externalizing is just a small sample of what's to come. So can you tell us a little bit more about the vision, the product strategy, the target clients, revenue model? Anything else you can share would be great.

    感謝你們對 2027 年的初步展望以及一些新的揭露內容,投影片 13 很棒。所以謝謝你們。Jack,如果你不介意,我想問一下 Builderlab。你提到它是一個新的生態系統,聽起來非常吸引人。投資人應該如何看待這個機會隨時間推進的規模?我猜我們現在看到你們對外釋出的內容,只是未來更多內容的一小部分樣本。所以你能否多談一些願景、產品策略、目標客戶、營收模式?任何你能分享的其他資訊都很棒。

  • Jack Dorsey - Chairperson of the Board, Principal Executive Officer, Block Head

    Jack Dorsey - Chairperson of the Board, Principal Executive Officer, Block Head

  • Yes. We gave a preview of what this is going to be like at AGNTCon, and I would definitely encourage folks to watch Brad's keynote on Buzz, but we have a full event on November 10 to talk about everything Builderlab. And this is a way for us to collect everything that we're doing in the AI tool space into one narrative, one event that we will talk about how everything fits together.

    好的。我們在 AGNTCon 上先行預告了這會是什麼樣子;我也非常鼓勵大家去看 Brad 在 Buzz 的主題演講。不過,我們會在 11 月 10 日舉辦一場完整活動,專門談 Builderlab 的一切。這也是我們把在 AI 工具領域所做的所有事情,整合成一個敘事、一場活動的方式;我們會說明各個部分如何彼此契合。

  • But most importantly, to introduce people to Buzz 1.0. And this is a surface that brings everything we've been working on for the past two years in the AI tooling space together into one really easy to understand and super powerful interface that we intend to use internally to replace a bunch of third-party vendors.

    但最重要的是,向大家介紹 Buzz 1.0。這是一個介面層,將我們過去兩年在 AI 工具領域所投入的一切整合在一起,形成一個非常容易理解、且極其強大的介面;我們打算在內部使用它來取代一堆第三方供應商。

  • And we also believe it enables other companies of our size, larger than us and also much, much smaller than us to do very similar things. One of the things that's been interesting as I talk with more and more sellers out there is how many of them use WhatsApp or iMessage or e-mail or something that they hate to communicate with their staff.

    我們也相信,它能讓其他公司——無論規模與我們相當、比我們更大,或是比我們小得多——做到非常類似的事情。有趣的是,當我和越來越多的商家交流時,我發現很多人仍用 WhatsApp、iMessage、電子郵件或其他他們其實不喜歡的工具,來和員工溝通。

  • And we've introduced them to some early views of Buzz and how it might integrate with Squaremates, which I talked about in the letter. And they love it because it allows them to communicate and organize and collaborate with their team, but also enables them to build with agents with them as well and build with AI. And you would assume that like a lot of sellers, especially smaller sellers aren't up on this technology, but they all are.

    我們向他們展示了 Buzz 的一些早期樣貌,以及它可能如何與我在信中提到的 Squaremates 整合。他們很喜歡,因為它讓他們能與團隊溝通、組織與協作,同時也讓他們能與代理(agents)一起建置、用 AI 來建置。你可能會以為很多商家,尤其是小型商家,對這項技術不熟,但其實他們都很熟。

  • They want something that's really easy to use, and they want something that's immediately accessible and Square can deliver that. So what this foundation enables us to do is go from the very smallest of sellers, the smallest of businesses, all the way up to our size and beyond. And we are experimenting with a number of monetization paths, but we do expect to have our first monetization of our AI tools in Q4 of this year.

    他們想要的是非常容易使用、且能立即上手的產品,而 Square 能提供這一點。因此,這個基礎讓我們能服務從最小型的商家、最小型的企業,一路到與我們同等規模甚至更大的客群。我們正在嘗試多種變現路徑,但我們確實預期會在今年第四季,對我們的 AI 工具進行首次變現。

  • We want to make sure that we're being flexible with how we're putting these things out in the world and how we charge for them because we want to learn on what works. But there's a number that you can imagine that you've seen others, including the labs utilize that we can take on and push out as well.

    我們希望在把這些產品推向市場以及如何收費方面保持彈性,因為我們想學習什麼方式有效。但你可以想像,有多種模式——你也看過其他人(包括 labs)採用——我們也可以採取並推向市場。

  • But we're just going to make sure that we're getting all the feedback and learning from it and then locking it in.

    不過我們會先確保收集所有回饋、從中學習,然後再把模式定下來。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Darrin Peller, Wolfe Research.

    Wolfe Research 的 Darrin Peller。

  • Darrin Peller - Equity Analyst

    Darrin Peller - Equity Analyst

  • It's great to see the outlook for '27 with 15% year-over-year gross profit growth even on a tougher comp against a tougher comp year. So maybe, Amrita, if you could just help us with the building blocks there a bit, maybe breaking down as much as you're willing to right now on Cash App versus Square. And then even the margin going up, I think it looks like 400 basis points year-over-year. Help us just understand a little bit more around where the operating leverage is primarily coming from and what parts of the business and the investments, you're looking to make as well to offset.

    很高興看到你們對 2027 年的展望:即使在更艱難的比較基期之上,毛利仍可年增 15%。所以也許 Amrita,你能否幫我們拆解一下其中的組成要素,例如在你目前願意分享的範圍內,分別談談 Cash App 與 Square。另外利潤率上升,我想看起來大約是年增 400 個基點。請幫我們更了解一下,營運槓桿主要來自哪些地方、哪些業務環節,以及你們也打算進行哪些投資來抵銷(成本)?

  • Amrita Ahuja - Foundational Lead, Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer and People Lead

    Amrita Ahuja - Foundational Lead, Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer and People Lead

  • Darrin, yes, happy to unpack our preliminary look of '27 here. And obviously, we'll have a lot more to say as we get into the year next year. First, just taking a step back, what I would say is that we feel a tremendous amount of momentum, as you can see in our results in the back half of this year carrying us into '27. We're outperforming our outlook on a Rule of 40 basis by 10 points. We expect to outperform by about 10 points, 5 points on growth and 5 points on margin in 2026, and exiting the year in that 15% plus range from a gross profit perspective.

    Darrin,好的,我很樂意說明我們對 2027 年的初步展望。當然,隨著明年逐步展開,我們還會有更多內容可以分享。首先先退一步看,我想說的是,我們感受到非常強勁的動能;你也可以從我們今年下半年的結果看到,這股動能將延續到 2027 年。以「40 法則」衡量,我們的表現比展望高出 10 個百分點。我們預期在 2026 年也將超越約 10 個百分點,其中成長貢獻 5 個百分點、利潤率貢獻 5 個百分點,並在年末以毛利角度落在 15% 以上的區間。

  • So as we look to '27, delivering on the growth rates that we set out at Investor Day for 2027 with 15% growth on gross profit, 30% on AOI is a tall order because we're coming off a much larger base in 2026. Along with, as you noted, 3.5 points of margin expansion relative to 2026, a year where we've vastly outperformed our expectations with respect to margin.

    因此,當我們展望 2027 年時,要達成我們在投資人日為 2027 年所設定的成長率——毛利成長 15%、調整後營業利益(AOI)成長 30%——是一項艱鉅任務,因為我們在 2026 年的基期將大幅變大。此外,如你所提到的,相較 2026 年還要再擴張 3.5 個百分點的利潤率;而 2026 年本身就是我們在利潤率方面大幅超越預期的一年。

  • A lot of this comes down to what we're seeing across our business. First, when we think about gross profit, I'll share with you a little bit about our process. We first estimate our run rates across the core book of business that we have today, our existing products and features.

    這在很大程度上取決於我們在整體業務中所看到的情況。首先,談到毛利,我先和你分享一下我們的流程。我們會先估算目前核心業務組合的運行率,也就是我們現有的產品與功能。

  • We then layer on top of that the building blocks of growth, which include a probability weighted set or portfolio of new initiatives. And so as we look across each of Square and Cash App, we see a number of things, whether they're newer initiatives that are already out there and beginning to compound and ramp or newer initiatives that we think could continue to drive growth into the future.

    接著,我們在此之上疊加成長的基礎構件,其中包括一組以機率加權的新計畫集合或投資組合。因此,當我們檢視 Square 與 Cash App 的各個面向時,我們看到許多事項——不論是已經推出、開始累積效應並加速成長的較新計畫,或是我們認為能在未來持續推動成長的較新計畫。

  • When you look at Square, we have investments across a number of different distribution channels that are really just beginning to compound. We have product velocity growth, 180 features so far released this year, more than in all of '24 and '25 combined.

    就 Square 而言,我們在多個不同的分銷通路上都有投資,而這些投資才剛開始產生複利效應。我們的產品迭代速度也在提升:今年迄今已發布 180 項功能,超過 '24 與 '25 兩年合計的發布數量。

  • And then some of our more recent launches like Kiosk and Squaremates, which we believe can drive growth in our priority verticals and really across all sellers into the future. That's part of what gives us the confidence to believe that we're going to accelerate our GPV growth for Square for the third consecutive year in 2027.

    此外,我們近期的一些新產品推出,例如 Kiosk 與 Squaremates,我們相信能在我們的優先垂直領域推動成長,並在未來真正擴及所有賣家。這也是我們有信心相信,Square 的 GPV 成長將在 2027 年連續第三年加速的原因之一。

  • We're also focused from a gross profit perspective as we look at Square is driving higher attach rates into our SaaS and banking products where we think we still have a lot of room to run.

    從毛利角度來看,我們在檢視 Square 時也聚焦於提高我們 SaaS 與銀行產品的附加率(attach rates),我們認為在這方面仍有很大的成長空間。

  • From a Cash App perspective, as we noted earlier, we expect at least low single-digit actives growth. Some of this coming from our Neighborhoods contributions, which we're pretty excited about as we ramp that to thousands of more sellers in the back half of this year and also strong growth in attach across our top verticals within Cash App, commerce enablement, and financial solutions.

    從 Cash App 的角度來看,如同我們先前提到的,我們預期活躍用戶至少會有低個位數的成長。其中一部分來自我們 Neighborhoods 的貢獻;我們對此相當興奮,因為我們將在今年下半年把它擴展到更多數千名賣家;同時,在 Cash App 的幾個主要垂直領域——商務賦能(commerce enablement)與金融解決方案——我們也看到附加率的強勁成長。

  • As you saw in our investor slides, we're scaling consumer lending across high targeted returns and have the ability to continue to do that into 2027, along with ramping newer initiatives that are just getting out there now and like Cash App tags or our upmarket strategy, our strategy to go deeper with modern earners that we believe we can do so much more on in 2027.

    如同你在我們的投資人簡報中看到的,我們正在以高目標報酬擴大消費者放款規模,並且有能力一路持續到 2027 年;同時也在加速一些剛開始推出的新計畫,例如 Cash App tags 或我們的高端市場(upmarket)策略——也就是我們深入服務現代收入族群(modern earners)的策略——我們相信在 2027 年我們能在這方面做得更多。

  • So each of these different pieces going into that sort of probability weighted portfolio of new initiatives that layer on to our existing run rates to believably drive profitable growth into the future. And that's part of what's flowing through to the bottom line, as you noted, with an AOI outlook for '27 that's 30% higher or over $1 billion higher on an absolute basis than our implied Investor Day guide from last year.

    因此,這些不同的組成部分共同構成一個以機率加權的新計畫投資組合,疊加在我們既有的運行基準之上,以可信地在未來推動獲利性成長。而如你所指出的,這也部分反映在最終損益上:我們對 '27 的 AOI 展望,比去年投資人日所隱含的指引高出 30%,或以絕對金額計算高出超過 10 億美元。

  • I think it's maybe notable finally, just to say, as you've heard from us, there are a lot of ramping very nascent initiatives in our portfolio from Cash App Score and being able to externalize it to Builderlab to Squaremates, each of those investments that we'll be leaning into, but our 2027 growth guidance does not rely on those initiatives. We're excited about them and encouraged about the early signs that we see, but -- and we'll be investing into them, but our growth outlook for next year does not rely on those initiatives.

    最後我想特別指出的是:如同你們聽我們提過的,我們的投資組合中有許多正在爬坡、仍非常早期的新計畫,從 Cash App Score 以及將其對外部化,到 Builderlab,再到 Squaremates——這些投資我們都會加大投入。我們對它們感到興奮,也對目前看到的早期跡象感到鼓舞;但——我們會持續投資——我們對 2027 年的成長指引並不依賴這些計畫。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Dave Koning, Baird.

    Dave Koning,Baird。

  • David Koning - Analyst

    David Koning - Analyst

  • Nice job. I wanted to talk a little bit or ask about the Square business acceleration and just what you're investing in with new sales reps, ISO relationships. We hear more in the field about you gaining a lot of momentum. Maybe just describe the investments there, if you're going to make more and how that should drive the future.

    做得很好。我想稍微談一下,或請教 Square 業務加速的情況,以及你們在新增業務代表、ISO 合作關係等方面正在投資什麼。我們在第一線聽到更多你們正在獲得很大動能的消息。能否請你描述一下這些投資、是否會加碼,以及這將如何推動未來表現?

  • Amrita Ahuja - Foundational Lead, Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer and People Lead

    Amrita Ahuja - Foundational Lead, Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer and People Lead

  • Sure. Dave. Look, I think '26 has obviously been strong so far. And what's really great to see is the strategy is working across our priority verticals. Each of food and beverage, mid-market and international growing at rates at 20% or higher in terms of the volumes that we see in the third quarter.

    當然,Dave。你看,'26 年到目前為止顯然表現強勁。而真正令人欣慰的是,我們的策略在優先垂直領域都奏效。以第三季我們看到的交易量來看,餐飲(food and beverage)、中型市場(mid-market)以及國際業務的成長率都達到 20% 或更高。

  • I think a lot of that, if you unpack it, is a combination of, as you've noted, our go-to-market channels, as well as the product innovation where we're really seeing that, that's resonating with our sellers is taking on more jobs to be done as we roll out more and more features.

    我認為如果你拆解其中原因,很大一部分是你提到的市場進入(go-to-market)通路,以及產品創新兩者的結合;我們確實看到,隨著我們推出越來越多功能、承接更多待完成的工作(jobs to be done),這些創新正在引起賣家的共鳴。

  • From a go-to-market perspective, what I'd say is we're pretty excited about the traction that we have year-to-date through August, self-onboard, which has always been a core motion for Square, has seen some of the highest rates of growth that we've seen over the past decade in terms of new volume added. And that's as we're ramping newer channels like the ISO channel, where new sellers joining through our ISO partners grew 90% quarter-over-quarter. This is a channel that's gone from 0 to 400 partners in the past year. And it's still early. It's still a relatively small basis in contribution to the overall pie for Square.

    從市場進入角度來說,我會說我們對今年迄今到 8 月的進展感到相當振奮:自助上線(self-onboard)一直是 Square 的核心動能,而在新增交易量方面,其成長率達到我們過去十年所見的最高水準之一。同時,我們也在擴張較新的通路,例如 ISO 通路;透過我們 ISO 夥伴加入的新賣家數量,季對季成長 90%。這個通路在過去一年從 0 成長到 400 個合作夥伴。而且仍在早期階段。就對 Square 整體版圖的貢獻而言,目前仍是相對小的基礎。

  • And so we think we have more opportunities, particularly to grow that, not only in the US, but in markets outside the US. And meanwhile, our first-party field sales and enterprise motion continue to drive new customer acquisition in the US and internationally. We have some big name sellers like Tommy's Tavern + Tap and Public House Group in London that we're excited to attract and be a steward that brings in other sellers as well. So continuing to expand that both field sales feet on the street as well as enterprise motion is a core focus for us.

    因此我們認為仍有更多機會,特別是在擴大該通路方面,不僅在美國,也包括美國以外的市場。同時,我們自營的一線外勤銷售(first-party field sales)與企業端推進(enterprise motion)也持續在美國及國際市場帶動新客戶取得。我們也很高興能吸引一些知名賣家,例如 Tommy's Tavern + Tap,以及倫敦的 Public House Group;我們期待成為值得信賴的夥伴,進而帶動更多賣家加入。因此,持續擴大外勤銷售的「街頭戰力」以及企業端推進,都是我們的核心重點。

  • Those are some of the key things that I think are driving the acceleration of growth that we saw in the third quarter for both GPV as well as gross profit. That's particularly aided by not only the volume growth, but the higher software adoption that we're seeing and the simplified pricing and packaging motion that we introduced over this past year.

    我認為以上是推動我們在第三季看到 GPV 與毛利雙雙加速成長的一些關鍵因素。這尤其得益於不僅是交易量成長,還包括我們看到更高的軟體採用率,以及我們在過去一年推出的簡化定價與方案組合(pricing and packaging)推進。

  • Again, early days on some of that. We think there's a lot more room to run. Only 16% of U.S. sellers use monetized software on our platform as of September, a lot more opportunity for us to continue to drive product attach there as we think about gross profit growth into '27.

    同樣地,其中一些仍在早期階段。我們認為仍有很大的成長空間。截至 9 月,美國賣家中只有 16% 使用我們平台上的付費軟體(monetized software);當我們思考到 '27 的毛利成長時,仍有更多機會持續推動產品附加(product attach)。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Will Nance, Goldman Sachs.

    Will Nance,Goldman Sachs。

  • Will Nance - Analyst

    Will Nance - Analyst

  • You talked around the overall philosophy centered around returns and variable profit margins on the lending side. Can you talk specifically about how that philosophy informed the change in the duration profile in Cash App Borrow, and we can see from the slides, the six-week loans are higher, and I know there's a slight negative impact on volume. So when you pull way up, how does that philosophy inform the changes made and how you think about the impact that these changes are having on the outlook for variable profit dollars and originations over the next year?

    你談到放款業務端以報酬與可變毛利率為核心的整體理念。能否具體談談,這個理念如何影響 Cash App Borrow 的期限結構(duration profile)調整?我們從投影片看到,六週期貸款占比更高;我也知道這對交易量有些微負面影響。因此從更宏觀的角度來看,這個理念如何指導你們所做的變更,以及你們如何看待這些變更對未來一年可變利潤金額(variable profit dollars)與放款發放量(originations)展望的影響?

  • Juan Hernandez - Head of Credit & Underwriting

    Juan Hernandez - Head of Credit & Underwriting

  • Will, yes, thanks for the question. Happy to share some thoughts. So the shift that we're seeing, we saw like a large growth in originations and also a large growth in risk loss, these shifts come from deliberate economic decisions, obviously. And I think it's worth talking about it. So we saw a 40% origination growth, and that included this intentional mix shift into higher margin, higher loss products, as you called out.

    Will,是的,謝謝你的提問。很樂意分享一些想法。我們看到的轉變是:放款發放量大幅成長,同時風險損失也大幅上升;這些轉變顯然源自我們有意識的經濟性決策。我認為值得談一談。我們看到放款發放量成長 40%,其中包含你所提到的、刻意將組合轉向高毛利但也高損失的產品。

  • So borrow moved from primarily being four weeks with a 5% fee to six weeks with a 7.5% fee. We also have been scaling other six-week products that have a 7.5% fee on Cash App. And so that just gives us a lot more margin to work with.

    因此,Borrow 從原本以四週期、收取 5% 費用為主,轉為以六週期、收取 7.5% 費用為主。我們也在 Cash App 上擴大其他同樣為六週期、收取 7.5% 費用的產品規模。這讓我們有更大的利潤空間可以運用。

  • And so to get into the philosophy of like how we think about this, if we have that margin to work with, we have to make like the right risk loss decision. And so you can imagine on one side, we could hold losses constant. We could have made this shift to six weeks and held losses constant, or you can think alternatively faced with this set of options, how do you grow long-term customer value and maximize responsible credit access. Obviously, we're aiming to do the latter. And there's a lot that goes into how we think about this.

    因此,談到我們如何看待這件事的理念:如果我們有那個可運用的利差空間,就必須做出正確的風險與損失取捨決策。你可以想像,一種做法是在一端把損失維持不變。我們本可以把期限調整到六週,同時讓損失維持不變;或者,面對這一組選項,你也可以換個角度思考:如何提升長期客戶價值,並在負責任的前提下最大化信貸可得性。顯然,我們的目標是後者。而我們在思考這件事時,牽涉到很多面向。

  • So here, maybe talk a little bit about like what is our technical sophistication that goes into this and a little bit of the unique culture, I think, that we have at Block. So first off, I don't think that we have like the typical credit team. I think we have like a really special credit team built around machine learning engineering as a discipline. Machine learning is also my background. I tend to think -- I can't help but think of the business itself as like a learning algorithm where we have an objective function that we're trying to maximize value according to like a definition.

    所以在這裡,也許可以談談我們在這方面的技術成熟度,以及我認為 Block 所具備的一些獨特文化。首先,我不認為我們是一個典型的信貸團隊。我認為我們有一個非常特別的信貸團隊,是以機器學習工程作為一門專業學科來打造的。機器學習也是我的背景。我往往會這樣想——我忍不住把整個業務本身看作是一個學習演算法:我們有一個目標函數,試圖依照某種定義來最大化價值。

  • I'll get into that in a second. But one of the things that's unique about Block and especially in our credit teams is that our ML engineers are not purely just focused on training models, lobbying them over the fence, et cetera. We're very deeply embedded in the business. We work directly with the product teams. We also work directly with the finance teams in terms of trying to determine, as Amrita was sharing, like what is our optimal definition of value for the business and how do we maximize it.

    我等一下會談到這點。但 Block 的獨特之處之一,尤其是在我們的信貸團隊,是我們的 ML 工程師並不只是專注於訓練模型、把模型丟過牆交給別人之類的。我們非常深度地嵌入業務之中。我們直接與產品團隊合作。我們也直接與財務團隊合作,試圖釐清——正如 Amrita 分享的——對公司而言價值的最佳定義是什麼,以及我們要如何把它最大化。

  • So we're trying to build something that maximizes credit access responsibly for our customers and then also maximizes variable profit returns. And so our ML teams working with our finance and product teams, we do a lot of experimentation.

    因此,我們要打造的是:在負責任的前提下,最大化客戶的信貸可得性,同時也最大化可變動利潤回報。所以我們的 ML 團隊與財務與產品團隊一起,做了大量的實驗。

  • We have very tight feedback loops. We have a great set of proprietary data. We use all of that to run experiments constantly to try to identify what is the efficient frontier, the optimal way that we can trade-off between risk loss and growth/credit access.

    我們有非常緊密的回饋迴路。我們擁有一套很強的專有資料。我們運用這些資源持續不斷地做實驗,試圖找出效率前緣——也就是在風險損失與成長/信貸可得性之間,最優的取捨方式。

  • So all these experiments and feedback loops, they really go beyond just developing these models, and they're informing us in real time as we launch each new product and as we think through things like even duration. The goal that we have behind all of this science is can we move the efficient frontier upwards over time. And I think that we've been doing that.

    因此,所有這些實驗與回饋迴路,確實不只是用來開發模型;它們在我們推出每一個新產品、以及我們思考像是期限(duration)這類問題時,都能即時提供資訊。我們做這一切科學工作的目標,是看能否隨時間把效率前緣往上推升。我認為我們一直在做到這點。

  • So getting back to the economics, we've upgraded our target variable profit margin on borrow from 2% to 2.8%. And I think we have -- as far as I know, our return on capital of 37% target, that's the best that I can think of, of any fintech lender out there. And all the while, we're growing at a really impressive rate where consumer originations grew 45% compound annual growth over the last year with variable profit growing nearly as fast.

    回到經濟性(economics),我們已將 Borrow 的目標可變動利潤率從 2% 上調至 2.8%。而且據我所知,我們 37% 的資本報酬率(return on capital)目標,是我能想到在所有金融科技放款機構中最好的之一。同時,我們仍以非常亮眼的速度成長:過去一年消費者放款發放量(originations)以 45% 的年複合成長率成長,而可變動利潤的成長速度也幾乎同樣快。

  • So I think we have -- it's kind of like a core part of our DNA at Block. And we have a track record of -- we've been doing this for over a decade on the Square Loans side, where over the 10 years -- over the prior 10 years plus, Square Loans have been growing at 27% compound annual growth and each year, still beating its 4% loss target. So we've definitely like kind of built a really strong system around this.

    所以我認為這有點像是 Block DNA 的核心部分。而且我們也有一個可追溯的紀錄——在 Square Loans 這一端,我們已經做了十多年;在過去 10 年以上的期間,Square Loans 以 27% 的年複合成長率成長,而且每一年仍然都能達成其 4% 的損失目標。因此,我們確實圍繞這件事建立了一套非常強健的系統。

  • Not only that, but like external partners they're interested in applying the same models that we're using, the same data as we've been sharing about Cash Apps for. And I think that this is just creating like a lot of validation that I'm very bullish on it. I am so convinced in the way that we approach risk and underwriting that we're actively trying to build a new credit system in new rails that we want to externalize outside of our company. And we're seeing a lot of great feedback from partners there.

    不僅如此,外部合作夥伴也有興趣採用我們正在使用的同一套模型、以及我們一直分享的 Cash App 相關同一套資料。我認為這正在帶來大量的驗證,因此我對此非常看多。我對我們處理風險與承作審核(underwriting)的方式非常有信心,以至於我們正積極嘗試在新的基礎設施(rails)上打造一套新的信貸系統,並希望把它對外輸出到公司之外。而我們也從合作夥伴那裡看到很多很好的回饋。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Dan Dolev, Mizuho.

    Dan Dolev,瑞穗(Mizuho)。

  • Dan Dolev - Analyst

    Dan Dolev - Analyst

  • Congrats on a really, really nice quarter. So I wanted to ask you about the very strong improvement in Cash App MAUs. I mean, very nice to see that. I wanted to know, I mean, you highlighted a little bit in the shareholder letter on the drivers, but maybe can we unpack a little bit more what's going on there and what's driving that, obviously, Neighborhoods and congrats again on really strong results.

    恭喜你們交出一個非常、非常出色的季度。我想問的是 Cash App MAU 的顯著改善。我是說,看到這點真的很好。我想了解的是,你們在股東信中稍微提到了一些驅動因素,但我們是否可以再更深入拆解一下那裡到底發生了什麼、以及是什麼在推動它?當然也包括 Neighborhoods。再次恭喜你們有非常強勁的成果。

  • Owen Jennings - Business Lead

    Owen Jennings - Business Lead

  • Thanks for the question, Dan. I appreciate it. Yes, we're quite pleased with actives growth in Q3. We hit 60 million MAUs in September. That was up about 4% year-over-year. This is roughly the fastest pace that we've seen in year-over-year growth since the middle of 2024, and it was slightly above our internal targets for September.

    謝謝你的提問,Dan。我很感謝。是的,我們對第三季活躍用戶(actives)的成長相當滿意。9 月我們達到 6,000 萬 MAU。年增約 4%。這大致是自 2024 年年中以來,我們看到的年增成長最快的節奏,而且也略高於我們對 9 月的內部目標。

  • I think the key contributors for September were really Neighborhoods and teens and families in terms of the incremental impact on growth. And now we feel really good about the trajectory going forward. So I think we mentioned we now expect at least low single-digit growth in actives as we head into Q4 and 2027. And of course, we're always striving to do better.

    我認為 9 月的主要貢獻者確實是 Neighborhoods,以及青少年與家庭族群,對成長帶來的增量影響。而且我們現在對未來的走勢感覺非常好。所以我想我們提到過,隨著我們進入第四季並展望 2027 年,我們現在預期活躍用戶至少會有低個位數的成長。當然,我們也一直努力做得更好。

  • I'm always striving to do better. The key drivers as we look ahead are kind of four key areas, I think. One is just ongoing investments in peer-to-peer network enhancements and our go-to-market motion. We've talked about this quite a bit over the past few quarters, and I see this as just an always-on motion for the development teams and the go-to-market teams. I think Neighborhoods is going to be a really meaningful driver and a really meaningful tailwind for us as we continue to scale to more and more sellers.

    我一直都在努力做得更好。展望未來,我認為關鍵驅動因素大概有四個重點領域。第一是持續投資於點對點(peer-to-peer)網路的強化,以及我們的上市推進(go-to-market)打法。過去幾個季度我們談了很多,我把這視為開發團隊與 go-to-market 團隊一個持續運作、永遠在線的推進機制。我認為 Neighborhoods 會是非常重要的驅動因素,也會在我們持續擴展到越來越多商家(sellers)時,成為非常有意義的順風。

  • We rolled out Neighborhoods to a cohort of about 30,000 sellers in late August, and that contributed meaningfully to September MAUs. But of course, we serve millions of sellers. So we see a huge opportunity here to continue to scale.

    我們在 8 月下旬把 Neighborhoods 推出給約 30,000 名商家的某個群組(cohort),這對 9 月的 MAU 有顯著貢獻。但當然,我們服務的是數百萬名商家。因此,我們看到這裡有巨大的機會可以持續擴大規模。

  • And then on the family side, we're continuing with product improvements, go-to-market partnerships and then also leaning into Tags. I think you can actually start to see the impact of the active acceleration playing out in inflows per active, where inflows per active grew at about 6% year-over-year on the quarter. But then if you strip out some of these cohorts that are teens and family-specific or neighborhood specific, inflows per active actually would have run about 2 points faster.

    接著在家庭端,我們持續進行產品改進、go-to-market 合作夥伴關係,並且也加大在 Tags 上的投入。我認為你其實已經可以在「每位活躍用戶的流入金額(inflows per active)」上看到活躍加速的影響:本季 inflows per active 年增約 6%。但如果把其中一些青少年與家庭特定、或 Neighborhoods 特定的 cohort 排除掉,inflows per active 實際上會快大約 2 個百分點。

  • And so now from this perspective, I think it's more about an engagement story from my perspective. So for instance, when we look at PBAs, it's pretty clear that PBAs and our focus on primary banking actives is working. Inflows from primary banking actives were up about 23% year-over-year and inflows per active for the PBA cohort was up 8% year-over-year.

    因此從這個角度看,我認為更像是一個互動參與(engagement)的故事。例如,當我們看 PBAs 時,很清楚 PBAs 以及我們對主要銀行活躍用戶(primary banking actives)的聚焦正在奏效。主要銀行活躍用戶帶來的流入金額年增約 23%,而 PBA 這個 cohort 的每位活躍用戶流入金額年增 8%。

  • I have confidence that the strategy and the focus is working, but I also think that we can do more here. So it's both about driving more incremental actives to Cash App overall, but then also converting a higher share of those actives into primary banking actives, and we do continue to be focused there.

    我有信心這個策略與聚焦方向正在奏效,但我也認為我們在這裡還能做得更多。所以這既是要為 Cash App 整體帶來更多增量活躍用戶,同時也要把其中更高比例的活躍用戶轉化為主要銀行業務活躍用戶(PBA),而我們也會持續把重點放在這裡。

  • I expect to grow PBAs sequentially in the last month of Q4, and we continue to see a huge opportunity where we're at a place now where we have 60 million monthly actives. We have about 28 million card actives on a monthly basis. And we're both increasing the top of the funnel and the customers coming to Cash App in the first place, but then also driving Cash Card attach and also driving more folks into that primary banking actives category.

    我預期在第四季最後一個月,PBA 會按季成長,而我們也持續看到巨大的機會——我們目前已經有 6,000 萬月活躍用戶。我們每月約有 2,800 萬張卡的活躍用戶。我們一方面在提升漏斗頂端、讓客戶一開始就來到 Cash App;另一方面也在推動 Cash Card 的綁定率,並推動更多人進入主要銀行業務活躍用戶這個類別。

  • Matthew Ross - Head of Investor Relations

    Matthew Ross - Head of Investor Relations

  • Okay. We'll take our next question directly from a shareholder. This one is for you, Jack. How do you see the competitive environment evolving for Cash App and Square with the proliferation of personal AI agents that are looking to monetize through commerce. How do you think about positioning Cash App and Square to remain differentiated as more companies focus on agentic commerce?

    好的。我們接下來直接接受一位股東的提問。這題是給你的,Jack。隨著個人 AI 代理大量出現,並希望透過商務變現,你如何看待 Cash App 與 Square 的競爭環境將如何演變?當更多公司聚焦於代理式商務(agentic commerce)時,你如何思考 Cash App 與 Square 的定位,以維持差異化?

  • Jack Dorsey - Chairperson of the Board, Principal Executive Officer, Block Head

    Jack Dorsey - Chairperson of the Board, Principal Executive Officer, Block Head

  • Yes. I think we want to make sure we're meeting our customers where they are consistently. That's always been one of our principles. And there's certainly a lot of folks out there going after the wallet side. I think what Cash App and Square represent is more of all the banking services. For you and if you want to utilize an agent to manage your money or purchase things, you can do so.

    是的。我認為我們要確保能持續在客戶所在之處與他們相遇。這一直是我們的原則之一。而且外面確實有很多人正在搶攻「錢包」這一端。我認為 Cash App 與 Square 所代表的,更像是完整的一整套銀行服務。對你而言,如果你想使用代理來管理你的資金或購買商品,你都可以這麼做。

  • It's also really important that we recognize use cases that people are doing today and the ones that we think will compound greatly. The one that is really interesting that we can see agents taking a lot of attention on is on the vendor side for Square merchants, being able to handle a bunch of the mundane task of just ordering inventory and ordering the ingredients that you need to run your business, doing it automatically being tied into the inventory system such that they can ask you whether to do it or not and it just handles everything is very real and takes a lot of friction away from our sellers.

    同樣非常重要的是,我們要辨識人們今天正在做的使用情境,以及我們認為未來會大幅複利成長的情境。其中一個非常有趣、我們看到代理可能會吸引大量注意力的,是在 Square 商家的供應商端:能夠處理一堆瑣碎工作,例如訂購庫存、訂購經營所需的原料;自動化地完成,並與庫存系統串接,讓它可以詢問你要不要下單,然後把所有事情都處理好——這非常可行,也能為我們的賣家大幅降低摩擦。

  • So certainly, we're very interested in that. But we do think there's opportunity on the consumer side as well. It's still pretty early, but we want to make sure that we have all the primitives and the platform ready. But I think the biggest differentiator is we're not just a wallet; we're the entire bank.

    所以當然,我們對此非常有興趣。但我們也認為在消費者端同樣有機會。現在仍然相當早期,但我們希望確保所有基礎元件(primitives)與平台都已準備就緒。不過我認為最大的差異化在於:我們不只是錢包;我們是整家銀行。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Tim Chiodo, UBS.

    Tim Chiodo,瑞銀(UBS)。

  • Timothy Chiodo - Analyst

    Timothy Chiodo - Analyst

  • I want to talk about the consumer lending origination volumes metric, and I have a question around the growth looking forward. So currently, it's pretty clear that the growth is being a little bit suppressed given the four to six-week transition. It's hiding a little bit of the underlying growth. It appears that there's at least five factors that we can think about for unlocking that growth in 2027. The first is literally the unlock of getting past the four to six-week transition for borrow.

    我想談談消費者放款的放款發起量(origination volumes)這個指標,並就未來的成長提出一個問題。目前很明顯,因為 4 到 6 週的轉換期,成長被稍微壓抑了。這在某種程度上掩蓋了底層的成長動能。看起來至少有五個因素,我們可以用來思考在 2027 年解鎖這個成長。第一個就是:實際上跨過 Borrow 的 4 到 6 週轉換期所帶來的解鎖。

  • The second is the pending resumption of increasing the loan size limits across borrow. The third is the ramping of post-purchase BNPL. The fourth is prepurchase BNPL and then the fifth is, of course, just underlying user growth in general to attach any of these products. I was hoping you could expand upon those, maybe add to the list, or elaborate.

    第二個是:即將恢復在 Borrow 產品中提高貸款額度上限。第三個是:購後 BNPL 的加速成長。第四個是:購前 BNPL;第五個當然是:整體用戶的底層成長,以便能夠綁定上述任何產品。我希望你能就這些點多做延伸,或許補充清單,或再更詳細說明。

  • Juan Hernandez - Head of Credit & Underwriting

    Juan Hernandez - Head of Credit & Underwriting

  • Tim, yes, thanks for the question. Great enumeration there. I think this touches also on some of the comments from Will earlier. So yes, the six-week move, again, like we started that because customers were asking for more time and payment flexibility.

    Tim,是的,謝謝你的提問。你列得很完整。我想這也呼應了 Will 先前的一些評論。所以是的,這個 6 週的調整——我們之所以開始做,是因為客戶希望有更長的時間與更彈性的還款方式。

  • And then we found through experimentation like this is a great fit with what our customers are looking for. The margin profile is a lot better. We're also seeing higher customer retention from the six-week construct. So it's like an important factor there to think about as we talk about growth long term.

    接著我們透過實驗發現,這非常符合客戶的需求。其利潤結構(margin profile)也好很多。我們也看到 6 週架構帶來更高的客戶留存。因此,當我們談長期成長時,這是一個重要的考量因素。

  • I think you got the right call-outs on originations, which is as we moved from four weeks to six weeks, we made the decision to keep the credit limits the same. And I guess like you could probably figure it out easily, which is that if you keep the credit limits the same, you extend the duration, customers are going to borrow less frequently.

    我認為你對發起量(originations)的重點抓得很準:當我們從 4 週改為 6 週時,我們決定維持相同的信用額度上限。而我想你也很容易推導出來:如果信用額度不變、期限拉長,客戶借款的頻率就會降低。

  • So we saw actually a 7% quarter-over-quarter decline in originations per customer during the rollout. This was as expected, knowing that we made the decision to keep the limits the same. Again, like this is coming with stronger margins that are supporting the stronger gross profit and variable profit growth.

    所以在上線推行期間,我們確實看到每位客戶的發起量按季下降 7%。這在預期之內,因為我們知道自己做了維持額度不變的決策。同樣地,這也伴隨著更強的利潤率,進而支撐更強的毛利與變動利潤成長。

  • The other thing to call out is just like we're facing really tough year-over-year comps if you look over the past years, just like big, big levers that we've pulled. Q3, we're facing a comparison against shipping the SFS migration of Borrow of last year. And then coming up in Q4 and Q1, we're comparing against the launch of Cash App Green.

    另外一點要提的是:如果回看過去幾年,我們正面臨非常艱難的年對年比較基期,因為我們曾經拉動過非常、非常大的槓桿。在第三季,我們面臨的是去年 Borrow 的 SFS 遷移上線所形成的比較基期。而接下來在第四季與第一季,我們則是對比 Cash App Green 的推出。

  • So to get to your list, yes, I think that you're pretty much on point with a lot of those. That's how I'm thinking about growth. First off, on my mind, yes, we're on the other side of migrating borrow from four weeks to six weeks. We've already done experiments of like what are some other ways that we can do this to try to optimize for more growth. We're excited to be experimenting with the higher limits.

    回到你的清單,是的,我認為你對多數要點的判斷都很到位。這也是我思考成長的方式。首先,我最關注的是:是的,我們已經走過把 Borrow 從 4 週遷移到 6 週的階段。我們也已經做過一些實驗,例如還有哪些方式可以優化,以追求更高的成長。我們很期待能在更高額度上持續做實驗。

  • We think that that's definitely like a very strong possible path to go down. Just to give you context, the maximum limit for Borrow right now is only $1,500. In contrast, BNPL, and that's all of our six-week BNPL products, which have the same duration, same target customers, those have a maximum limit of $3,000. So we're actually launching experiments right now to see how much of that growth can we attain on the Borrow side. And so we're excited to push forward with that.

    我們認為那絕對是一條非常有力、值得探索的路徑。給你一些背景:目前 Borrow 的最高額度上限只有 1,500 美元。相較之下,BNPL——也就是我們所有 6 週期的 BNPL 產品(期限相同、目標客群相同)——最高額度上限是 3,000 美元。因此我們現在正啟動實驗,看看在 Borrow 端我們能取得多少這樣的成長。所以我們很期待推進這項工作。

  • The other thing is, as you said, we're not just talking about borrow. We've been launching other Afterpay products within Cash App. So post-purchase BNPL and Afterpay on Cash App Card are both growing at really, really impressive rates. I think Amrita already shared like the year-over-year and the quarter-over-quarter growth rates. But the other thing to think about is that I think about all the time is like how are we learning as a business like you ship one product.

    另外,如你所說,我們談的不只是 Borrow。我們一直在 Cash App 內推出其他 Afterpay 產品。因此,購後 BNPL 以及 Cash App Card 上的 Afterpay 都以非常、非常亮眼的速度成長。我想 Amrita 已經分享過年對年與季對季的成長率。但另一個值得思考的是——我一直在想——作為一家公司,我們如何從中學習:你推出一個產品。

  • It's very, very hard to ship a consumer lending product. And then shipping a new product, I'm always trying to like beat our record and kind of have like this funny name that is like, hey, look how fast we got to this growth checkpoint. And so here's the checkpoints that I'm looking at today.

    推出一個消費者放款產品是非常、非常困難的。而當推出新產品時,我總是想要打破我們自己的紀錄,並且會用一個有點好笑的名稱來形容:嘿,看看我們多快就達到這個成長檢核點。所以,以下是我今天正在關注的檢核點。

  • For post purchase, it's currently operating at 3 times the origination volume that borrow was at the same stage of development. And then Afterpay on Cash App Card, which we just launched for the first time to consumers just this year, not too long ago, it's operating at more than 20 times as much origination volume as borrow at the same stage of development.

    就「購後」而言,目前其放款起始量(origination volume)是在相同發展階段的 Borrow 的 3 倍。另外,Cash App Card 上的 Afterpay,我們今年才首次向消費者推出、距今也不久,目前其放款起始量已超過 Borrow 在相同發展階段的 20 倍。

  • So like we're definitely moving up that learning curve. I think a big part of that is also just like the reinvigoration in the last couple of years from like AI just really driving a lot more acceleration, but a lot of it is just expertise of knowing like how are we going to ship this next product. Both of these also, we haven't even started like SFS migration for these products.

    所以我們確實正在快速爬升這條學習曲線。我認為其中很大一部分也來自於過去幾年 AI 的再度活化,確實帶來更快的加速,但更多的是我們累積的專業能力——知道下一個產品要怎麼推出。而且這兩個產品,我們甚至都還沒開始進行 SFS 遷移。

  • So we're looking forward to additional expansion that's going to drive a lot of growth on these products. So the other thing is, I think like as we build new products, like we know that we haven't solved for all of our customer needs.

    因此我們也期待後續的進一步擴張,這將為這些產品帶來大量成長。另外一點是,我認為當我們打造新產品時,我們也知道自己尚未滿足客戶的所有需求。

  • People are going to need to borrow in different form factors. There's different segments of customers. We think that the velocity that we're building here is really just going to continue as we launch new products to solve new things.

    人們會需要以不同的形式來借款。客戶也有不同的分群。我們認為,我們在這裡建立的速度(velocity)會在我們推出新產品、解決新需求時持續延伸。

  • And then I think the other thing to think about is in addition to like all the points that you've made and that I've made also is like this new orthogonal growth vector, as I like to think about it, which is the Cash App score. Like this is like a big shift in how we're thinking about the products where it's not just about, hey, let's launch the next like lending product, but it's like how do we actually ship and monetize the technology layer that underpins all of our lending products.

    然後我覺得另一個值得思考的是,除了你提到的所有點以及我也提到的之外,還有一個我稱之為新的「正交式」成長向量(orthogonal growth vector),也就是 Cash App 分數(Cash App score)。這代表我們對產品的思考方式出現重大轉變:不再只是「嘿,我們來推出下一個放貸產品」,而是「我們要如何真正交付並變現支撐所有放貸產品的技術層」。

  • So again, like the Cash App score is our way of extending underwriting as a form of intelligence like to our partners. Just earlier this year, we announced a distribution partnership with Nova Credit, which we're super excited about. We also have a lot of very interested direct partners that are evaluating the Cash App Score through data studies.

    所以再說一次,Cash App 分數是我們把核貸(underwriting)作為一種智慧能力延伸給合作夥伴的方式。就在今年稍早,我們宣布與 Nova Credit 的分銷合作夥伴關係,對此我們非常興奮。我們也有許多非常感興趣的直接合作夥伴,正在透過資料研究評估 Cash App 分數。

  • Like again, like I can't speak more highly about like how I think about the data that we're using versus like the status quo. One of the things that we found by experimenting with our data and looking at historical comparators is that we showed like a potential for up to 30% higher approval for auto loans at a constant loss target compared to like the status quo. So I think there's like tremendous upside.

    同樣地,我對我們所使用的資料相較於現狀(status quo)的優勢,真的怎麼稱讚都不為過。我們透過實驗自有資料並與歷史可比對象比較後發現:在維持相同損失目標(constant loss target)的前提下,相較於現狀,汽車貸款的核准率有機會提高最多達 30%。所以我認為上行空間非常可觀。

  • And I think it goes without saying that for customers and what this means for like the Cash App ecosystem, there's also a lot of upside because I think that when customers are able to see that like everyday money movement is going to create more credit opportunities than traditional methods. We think that it's going to drive even more engagement with Cash App. So we're really excited about what's coming in the future.

    而且我想不言而喻,對客戶以及對 Cash App 生態系而言,這也有很大的上行空間;因為我認為當客戶能看到「日常資金流動」比傳統方法能創造更多信用機會時,我們相信這會帶動 Cash App 更高的互動度。因此我們對未來將推出的內容感到非常興奮。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Bryan Bergin, TD Cowen.

    Bryan Bergin,TD Cowen。

  • Bryan Bergin - Analyst

    Bryan Bergin - Analyst

  • I was hoping to circle back with a broader question on Neighborhoods. So can you just give us a sense of your early learnings on conversion and retention? As you're thinking ahead to '27, how you may see Neighborhoods contribution to active growth and GPV penetration, curious if you see a kind of a steady build or a sharper ramp forming. And then related to that, just comment on the investment needs to promote Neighborhoods.

    我想回到一個更宏觀的問題,關於 Neighborhoods。你能否分享一下你們在轉換(conversion)與留存(retention)方面的早期學習?展望到 2027 年,你們如何看待 Neighborhoods 對活躍用戶成長與 GPV 滲透率的貢獻?我想了解你們是否看到穩定累積,或是更陡峭的加速爬坡。另外也請談談推廣 Neighborhoods 所需的投資需求。

  • Owen Jennings - Business Lead

    Owen Jennings - Business Lead

  • Sure. Thanks much, Bryan. I'll set the stage first a little bit on Neighborhoods and then get into some of the specifics. I think overall, I'm incredibly excited about where we are with Neighborhoods. So last quarter, I think I said we believe we found product market fit with Neighborhoods and now it's all about scaling.

    當然。非常感謝,Bryan。我先簡單鋪陳一下 Neighborhoods 的背景,再進入一些細節。整體而言,我對我們在 Neighborhoods 的進展感到非常振奮。所以上一季我想我提到過,我們相信 Neighborhoods 已找到產品市場契合(product market fit),現在重點就是擴張規模。

  • And that's exactly what we did in Q3. I think we also said we expected the first major business metric or KPI that Neighborhoods would hit was going to be Cash App actives, and that's exactly what we saw in September.

    而這正是我們在第三季所做的。我們也曾說過,我們預期 Neighborhoods 首個達成的主要商業指標或 KPI 會是 Cash App 活躍用戶,而我們在 9 月確實看到了這一點。

  • So in terms of where we are right now, we auto-enabled a cohort of about 30,000 sellers in late August. And we've now scaled to the point where sellers on the platform represent about $5 billion in annualized GPV. I think Amrita mentioned that was up about 5x relative to June.

    就目前進度而言,我們在 8 月下旬自動啟用了一個約 30,000 名賣家的群組(cohort)。而我們現在已擴張到一個程度:平台上的賣家代表約 50 億美元的年化 GPV。我想 Amrita 提到過,相較於 6 月大約成長了 5 倍。

  • And then we've also seen consistent metrics in the funnel on the seller side, where for folks who have been on the Neighborhoods platform for more than a year, they're averaging more than 1,000 followers and about 10% of their overall GPV is coming through the Neighborhoods channel.

    此外,我們也在賣家端漏斗(funnel)看到一致的指標:對於加入 Neighborhoods 平台超過一年的賣家,他們平均擁有超過 1,000 名追蹤者,且其整體 GPV 約有 10% 來自 Neighborhoods 渠道。

  • Specifically to your question in terms of driving actives, we saw more than 500,000 Neighborhoods actives in September and roughly half of those were incremental, meaning they didn't otherwise transact in Cash App. And that rate of roughly 50% has been consistent for the past year or really like since the inception of the program.

    針對你關於帶動活躍用戶的問題,我們在 9 月看到超過 50 萬名 Neighborhoods 活躍用戶,其中約一半是增量(incremental),也就是他們原本並不會在 Cash App 進行交易。而這個約 50% 的比例在過去一年、或更精確地說自計畫啟動以來,一直都很一致。

  • In terms of where we're going from here, I think it's still incredibly early. we think that basically every American is shopping at a Square seller in a given year. And so Neighborhoods is still quite small relative to the millions of sellers that we're serving.

    至於接下來的方向,我認為現在仍非常早期。我們認為基本上每位美國人每年都會在某個 Square 賣家那裡購物。因此相較於我們服務的數百萬賣家,Neighborhoods 的規模仍然相當小。

  • I think in terms of product development in the coming months and quarters, we're focused on connecting Neighborhoods more deeply to Square Loyalty and Square Online, making sure it's working great across all hardware form factors and also all verticals. I think in Q4, you should expect even more sellers coming on to the platform.

    就未來幾個月與幾季的產品開發而言,我們聚焦於讓 Neighborhoods 與 Square Loyalty 以及 Square Online 更深度連結,確保它在所有硬體形態(hardware form factors)以及所有垂直領域(verticals)都能順暢運作。我認為在第四季,你應該會看到更多賣家加入平台。

  • Early in '27, it's probably even more sellers coming on, but then also turning on the Neighborhoods tab or the Neighborhoods map to all Cash App actives within Cash App because we'll kind of have reached the saturation point in terms of Neighborhoods being truly useful across like almost any geo. To get a little bit more specific about impact because I think you're asking about like what's the gross profit impact potential for 2027.

    到了 2027 年初,可能會有更多賣家加入;同時也會把 Neighborhoods 分頁或 Neighborhoods 地圖在 Cash App 內開放給所有 Cash App 活躍用戶,因為屆時我們在 Neighborhoods 的覆蓋上將達到飽和點,使其在幾乎任何地理區域(geo)都真正有用。再更具體談影響,因為我理解你在問的是 2027 年的毛利影響潛力。

  • It is still early, but I do expect that to the extent we're seeing direct flow-through, it's going to be more on the buyer side than on the seller side in the next couple of quarters. We're still in the process of scaling to more and more sellers, which is then correlated to incremental actives coming into Cash App.

    目前仍屬早期,但我確實預期:就我們看到的直接傳導效應(direct flow-through)而言,接下來幾季會更多體現在買家端,而非賣家端。我們仍在把規模擴展到越來越多賣家的過程中,而這也與更多增量活躍用戶進入 Cash App 呈正相關。

  • I think once you then build that base and you have more and more consumers who are using Neighborhoods, then I think you start getting into the flow-through to things like seller retention or seller win rates for our sales teams or even incremental GPV.

    我認為一旦你建立起這個基礎,並且有越來越多消費者使用 Neighborhoods,接著就會開始看到它對賣家留存、我們銷售團隊的賣家贏單率(win rates),甚至增量 GPV 等方面的傳導效應。

  • In terms of what we're seeing right now, I think it's really clear that Neighborhoods is and will continue to drive outsized growth in terms of actives. And then I think the primary motion that we're focused on is cross-sell, upsell and driving that attach rate.

    就我們目前看到的情況而言,非常清楚的是,Neighborhoods 正在、且將持續在活躍用戶成長方面帶來超常(outsized)的成長。接著我認為我們聚焦的主要動作是交叉銷售(cross-sell)、向上銷售(upsell),以及提升附加率(attach rate)。

  • We haven't even started to scratch the surface of what does it look like if you try to introduce Cash App Card and drive card attach, how does that work with the rest of the system? I think there's a pretty clear cross-sell opportunity for some of our additional commerce tools. And that's the whole -- that's been the whole playbook for Cash App since inception, which is you have a proprietary distribution channel, you bring actives in and then you're driving cross-sell, upsell into more valuable, more useful products and you have an ability to monetize there.

    我們甚至還沒真正開始探索:如果嘗試導入 Cash App Card 並推動卡片綁定(card attach),會是什麼樣子?它又會如何與整個系統的其他部分協同運作?我認為對我們一些額外的商務工具而言,存在相當明確的交叉銷售機會。而這一直——這一直都是 Cash App 自創立以來的打法:你擁有自有的分發渠道,把活躍用戶帶進來,然後推動交叉銷售、向上銷售到更有價值、更有用的產品,並且具備在那裡變現的能力。

  • I think just the last point I would make on funding costs or how we're thinking about the investment. First, I think it's a pretty incredible place to be in where we control all the levers. So we're funding these rewards right now. We control what the reward rate is for the sign-up bonus for the ongoing rewards, and we can kind of make changes based on what we think is going to be the most effective.

    我想就資金成本或我們如何看待這項投資,最後再補充一點。首先,我認為我們能掌控所有槓桿,這是一個相當不可思議的狀態。所以目前這些獎勵是由我們出資。我們掌控註冊獎金與持續性獎勵的回饋率,也可以依據我們認為最有效的方式來做調整。

  • I do -- I will talk about the potential for sellers to be funding this. But even just right now, even if you just think about block funding these rewards, it's actually an incredibly efficient distribution and acquisition channel for us.

    我會——我會談到由賣家來出資的可能性。但即便只看現在,就算你只把這些獎勵視為由 Block 出資,對我們而言這其實也是一個極其高效率的分發與獲客通路。

  • I think similar to the early days of peer-to-peer, where the referrals program was doing a lot of the heavy lifting, and that's still true to this day where we have really, really low CACs. There's a world where it could make sense either for part of the program or the entire program just to continue running this in perpetuity.

    我認為這有點像點對點(peer-to-peer)早期的情況,當時推薦計畫扛起了很大一部分的成長動能;而直到今天仍然如此,我們的獲客成本(CAC)非常、非常低。在某些情境下,無論是讓計畫的一部分或整個計畫長期、永久地持續運行,都可能是合理的。

  • That said, I do think that as you get more and more density on the consumer side, there's more and more followers. Sellers are recognizing the value of this program, and they have the ability to have a proprietary marketing channel to their followers. I think that it's pretty clear that the willingness to pay is there. I think evidence of the tens of thousands of sellers who are paying for Square loyalty right now, which is a roughly similar product. is evidence of that.

    話雖如此,我確實認為,隨著消費者端的密度越來越高、追蹤者越來越多,賣家正在認知到這個計畫的價值,而且他們也有能力把它作為面向其追蹤者的專屬行銷通路。我認為很明顯,付費意願是存在的。目前有數以萬計的賣家正在為 Square Loyalty 付費(這是一個大致相似的產品),這就是證據。

  • But we feel like we have maximum flexibility. It's early. And also, we're seeing pretty significant impacts in September. So just really, really excited about the quarters to come and what we're going to continue to invest here meaningfully.

    但我們覺得我們擁有最大的彈性。現在還在早期。而且我們在 9 月看到了相當顯著的影響。所以我們對接下來幾個季度非常、非常興奮,也會持續在這裡進行有意義的投資。

  • Matthew Ross - Head of Investor Relations

    Matthew Ross - Head of Investor Relations

  • All right. Thanks, Owen. We'll take another question from one of our shareholders directly. Jack, you touched on this a little bit in some prior answers, but it would be great to dive more into our plans to integrate Buzz into the Square ecosystem and talk more broadly about Squaremate's capabilities and what we're building there.

    好的。謝謝你,Owen。我們再從一位股東那裡直接接下一個問題。Jack,你在前面的一些回答中稍微提到過,但如果能更深入談談我們把 Buzz 整合進 Square 生態系的計畫,並更廣泛地談談 Squaremates 的能力以及我們在那裡打造的內容,會很棒。

  • Jack Dorsey - Chairperson of the Board, Principal Executive Officer, Block Head

    Jack Dorsey - Chairperson of the Board, Principal Executive Officer, Block Head

  • Yes. I mean -- so as we've looked at how we work; it mirrors very closely with how our small sellers work as well. We see a lot of similar patterns as they communicate with their teams. We see similar patterns as they want to introduce AI tools into their flow. They start simply just by asking queries of their data and building charts and asking questions and then get more and more sophisticated with agents taking on actions for them and helping them and their teammates utilize these new technologies.

    是的。我的意思是——當我們觀察我們自己的工作方式時;它與我們的小型賣家如何運作非常相似。我們看到他們在與團隊溝通時有很多相似的模式。我們也看到他們想把 AI 工具導入工作流程時的相似模式。他們一開始很簡單,只是對資料提出查詢、建立圖表、提問,然後逐步變得更成熟,讓代理(agents)替他們採取行動,並協助他們與同事運用這些新技術。

  • Talk to a number of sellers who have a desperate want and need to share these AI tools with their staff, but just don't have an easy way to do that. And that's what Buzz represents for them. So we do intend to build it as a foundation for Squaremates, and that's what we were calling Managerbot in the recent past.

    我和不少賣家聊過,他們非常迫切地想、也需要把這些 AI 工具分享給員工,但就是沒有一個簡單的方法可以做到。而 Buzz 對他們而言就代表了這件事。因此,我們確實打算把它打造為 Squaremates 的基礎,而這就是我們不久前稱為 Managerbot 的東西。

  • We'll have a lot more to say on that next week at the Builderlab's event and also an upcoming announcement and reintroduction to Managerbot aka Squaremates in the coming weeks as well. So super excited for you all to see that and really excited to get more and more of this out to our sellers.

    下週在 Builderlab 的活動上我們會分享更多內容,另外在接下來幾週也會有一個即將發布的公告,並重新介紹 Managerbot(也就是 Squaremates)。所以非常期待大家看到,也很期待把更多這些功能帶給我們的賣家。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Andrew Schmidt, KeyBanc.

    KeyBanc 的 Andrew Schmidt。

  • Andrew Schmidt - Equity Analyst

    Andrew Schmidt - Equity Analyst

  • I was wondering if you could talk a little bit about AOI growth and how you're thinking about the reinvestment framework. Specifically, I think the 2027 outlook implies mid-50s incremental margins even as you ramp investment in things like Neighborhoods and external AI. Just any color on how you balance upside flow-through against reinvestment or just in general on the investment return framework would be helpful here.

    我想請你談談 AOI 的成長,以及你們如何看待再投資框架。具體來說,我認為 2027 年展望暗示即使你們加大在 Neighborhoods 與外部 AI 等方面的投資,增量利潤率仍可達到 50% 中段。想請你補充一下,你們如何在利潤上行的流入(flow-through)與再投資之間取得平衡,或更一般地談談投資報酬框架,這會很有幫助。

  • Amrita Ahuja - Foundational Lead, Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer and People Lead

    Amrita Ahuja - Foundational Lead, Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer and People Lead

  • Sure, Andrew. So I think similar to what we said last quarter, there's a set of initiatives that we're investing in that we believe will help us sustain long-term profitable growth. I think of them across five different categories, and maybe I'll speak to each one just briefly in terms of the recent progress we've made and the returns that we're seeing in each of them. First, obviously, go-to-market. I think we've proven some strong ROIs here, not just frankly, in the Square business, but also the Cash App business.

    當然,Andrew。我想和我們上季所說的類似,我們正在投資一系列我們相信能幫助我們維持長期、具獲利性的成長的計畫。我把它們分成五個不同類別;我會就每一類簡要談談近期進展,以及我們在各類別看到的回報。第一,當然是 go-to-market(市場進入/商業化)。我認為我們在這裡已經證明了很強的投資報酬(ROI),不只是 Square 業務,坦白說 Cash App 業務也是如此。

  • We talked earlier about the self-onboard sales and ISO motion within Square. We're seeing five-quarter paybacks here, and we're hitting or exceeding the thresholds that we've set across each of these channels from an ROI perspective.

    我們先前談到 Square 內的自助上線銷售(self-onboard sales)與 ISO 推進模式。我們在這裡看到五個季度的回收期(payback),而且從 ROI 的角度來看,我們在各通路上都達到或超過了我們設定的門檻。

  • From a Cash App perspective, from a distribution perspective, we're seeing a three-quarter payback for marketing and referrals. So these are motions that across sales and marketing that we'll continue to invest in so long as we see those strong returns.

    就 Cash App 而言,從分發/通路的角度,我們看到行銷與推薦的回收期是三個季度。因此,只要我們持續看到這些強勁回報,這些橫跨銷售與行銷的推進方式就是我們會持續投資的方向。

  • Second, I would say our product motion within Square noted a couple of times already on the call that our product innovation momentum is a core part of taking on more jobs to be done for our sellers. And I think some of the more recent examples, as you heard from Jack on Squaremates or more recently, our launch of Kiosk are some very strong examples there that we'll be investing into and making sure we can get them into sellers' hands into the next year.

    第二,我會說是 Square 內的產品推進。我們在這通話中已經提到幾次:產品創新的動能是我們為賣家承接更多待完成工作(jobs to be done)的核心。我認為一些較近期的例子——如你從 Jack 那裡聽到的 Squaremates,或更近期我們推出 Kiosk——都是非常強的例子;我們會持續投資,並確保在明年把它們交到賣家手上。

  • Third, Cash App product evolutions. We've talked about tags and the importance around our commerce initiatives and upmarket and families strategies that product brings, reaching more customers through Cash App en Espanol, the very strong returns that we're seeing for our lending products in Cash App, investing into risk loss, you've heard from Juan on this call, really helps us drive the strong variable profit growth that we've seen and broader ecosystem benefits, too, that those lending products provide us as a lot of those customers get more deeply engaged across the full set of products that we have as we invest in them through our lending products.

    第三,Cash App 的產品演進。我們談過 tags,以及它在我們的商務計畫、向上市場(upmarket)與家庭策略中所扮演的重要性;這個產品也能透過 Cash App en Espanol 觸及更多客戶;我們也看到 Cash App 放貸產品帶來非常強的回報;同時在風險損失(risk loss)上的投資——你也在這通話中聽到 Juan 的說明——確實幫助我們推動我們所看到的強勁變動利潤成長,以及更廣泛的生態系效益。這些放貸產品也讓許多客戶在我們投資放貸產品的同時,更深度地參與我們完整的產品組合。

  • Fourth, I'd say, Neighborhoods. You just heard a bunch from Owen on that as well. We're seeing strong product market fit. We'll lean in to be able to scale this sort of distribution differentiated network faster. You'll see that through Cash App actives first, and we want to be able to demonstrate value to sellers or prospective sellers into the future as well.

    第四,我會說是 Neighborhoods。你也剛從 Owen 那裡聽到不少。我們看到很強的產品市場契合(product-market fit)。我們會加大投入,以更快擴大這種具差異化分發能力的網路。你會先在 Cash App 活躍用戶上看到這點,我們也希望未來能向賣家或潛在賣家證明其價值。

  • And then finally, our AI infrastructure, including our newest ecosystem with Builderlab and with Buzz, which we're just now starting to externalize, which at the very least drive velocity gains internally for us, but potentially externally for other customers, too.

    最後,是我們的 AI 基礎設施,包括我們最新的生態系:Builderlab 與 Buzz。我們現在才剛開始把它們對外部化;至少它們能為我們內部帶來速度提升,但也可能對外部其他客戶帶來價值。

  • As we see continued traction against the milestones that we set for those five investment areas, we would look to redeploy profit upside to drive long-term growth in those areas. A lot of how we can do that is by continuing to seek efficiency opportunities across our fixed cost base and through driving strong incremental margins.

    隨著我們在這五個投資領域持續達成我們設定的里程碑並看到更多動能,我們會考慮把利潤上行重新部署,用於推動這些領域的長期成長。我們能做到這點的一大部分方式,是持續在固定成本基礎上尋找效率機會,並推動強勁的增量利潤率。

  • A couple of the proof points that we've seen on that with G&A down 21% on a non-GAAP basis. in our more recent quarter is helping us to drive those fixed cost efficiencies. I believe that there are more to be had across our business as we look into next year.

    我們看到的一些佐證包括:在最近一季,非 GAAP 口徑下的 G&A(一般及行政費用)下降了 21%,這有助於我們推動固定成本效率。我相信,當我們展望明年時,我們的業務中還有更多效率可以挖掘。

  • And then as you noted, strong incremental margins. We had said at Investor Day, 50% plus by 2028. We'd expect to exceed that in both '26 and '27 in terms of the incremental margins that we've driven as we've reset our cost base.

    然後如你所指出的,強勁的增量利潤率。我們在投資者日曾表示,到 2028 年要達到 50% 以上。我們預期在 '26 與 '27 兩年都會超過這個水準,就我們在重置成本基礎後所帶動的增量利潤率而言。

  • So all of that ladders up, Andrew, to the preliminary '27 profit -- gross profit and profit guidance that we put forward of the at least 15% growth in the 3 to 4 points or so of margin expansion as AOI grows by 30% next year. We're focused on really balancing efficiency while continuing to invest in these strong return areas.

    所以,Andrew,以上所有因素匯總起來,就形成了我們提出的 '27 年初步獲利——毛利與利潤指引:在明年 AOI 成長 30% 的情況下,至少 15% 的成長,以及約 3 到 4 個百分點左右的利潤率擴張。我們專注於在持續投資於這些高回報領域的同時,真正平衡效率。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Bryan Keane, Citi.

    Bryan Keane,花旗。

  • Bryan Keane - Analyst

    Bryan Keane - Analyst

  • Congrats on the execution. Owen, I wanted to ask you on Cash App gross profit growth going into next year, thinking about the building blocks, it looks like it will be over 15% looking at the guide, but just trying to think about commerce enablement versus financial solutions, the volumes in each and monetization rate maybe for Commerce Enablement.

    恭喜執行成果。Owen,我想請教你關於 Cash App 明年毛利成長的問題,從組成要素來看,依照指引推算似乎會超過 15%,但我想更進一步理解商務賦能(Commerce Enablement)相對於金融解決方案(Financial Solutions)的貢獻、各自的交易量,以及商務賦能的變現率可能會如何。

  • Owen Jennings - Business Lead

    Owen Jennings - Business Lead

  • Sure. Thanks, Bryan. Appreciate it. So I'll take us back to Investor Day to start, we guided to mid- to high teens gross profit growth for Cash App. And the basic kind of growth algorithm that I set out was essentially what we're trying to do is find differentiated ways to reach customers and then just keep on delivering them more and more value.

    當然。謝謝你,Bryan。感謝。我先回到投資者日的內容:我們當時對 Cash App 的毛利成長指引是中到高十幾%的區間。我所提出的基本成長算法,本質上就是:我們要找到差異化的方式觸達客戶,然後持續為他們提供越來越多的價值。

  • I think tactically, what that looks like is scaling actives, driving deeper engagement. And then as you do that, you're introducing more opportunities for monetization. This has been the basic growth algorithm that we've had on cash since 2013, 2014, and I think it has -- and I think it will continue to create just a diverse range of opportunities for us.

    我認為在戰術層面,這看起來就是擴大活躍用戶規模、推動更深度的使用參與。而當你做到這些,就會引入更多變現機會。這一直是我們自 2013、2014 年以來在 Cash 上採用的基本成長算法;我認為它已經——而且我認為它將持續——為我們創造非常多元的機會。

  • It's the same approach that let us scale from something like $20 million in gross profit in 2016 to where we are now at like an $8 billion gross profit run rate, I think. That said, I think it's always the case that we are focused on certain parts of the growth algorithm differently and/or like some areas are performing better than others.

    這也是讓我們能從 2016 年大約 2,000 萬美元的毛利,擴張到現在我認為約 80 億美元毛利年化運行率的同一套方法。話雖如此,我認為我們一向都會在成長算法的不同部分投入不同的關注,或者說某些領域的表現會比其他領域更好。

  • If I think about a couple of years ago, I think a lot of the incremental growth was coming from engagement, but we are seeing a decel in actives growth. much different from where we are today. So I'll just talk about the different kind of pieces and where we are today.

    如果回想幾年前,我認為很多增量成長來自於使用參與度,但我們也看到活躍用戶成長在放緩。這與我們今天所處的狀況非常不同。所以我就談談不同的組成部分,以及我們目前的狀態。

  • On the active side, I feel really, really good about both where we are and then also the shape of the actives curve as we look ahead. We have Neighborhoods, which I don't need to go back into teens and families, a lot of opportunities on the peer-to-peer network side. And then eventually, medium, and long term, looking towards geographic expansion and taking cash global.

    在活躍用戶方面,我對我們目前的狀況以及往前看的活躍曲線形態都感到非常、非常有信心。我們有 Neighborhoods(我不需要再回到青少年與家庭那一段),在點對點網路那一側有很多機會。然後最終在中長期,我們會朝向地理擴張,讓 Cash 走向全球。

  • On the monetization side, also feeling really, really good about where we are and what the shape looks like. The credit products that Juan has been talking about, Cash App Card, Cash attach, things like tags, App Tags, Afterpay on the Cash App Card, feeling really good about our ability to monetize.

    在變現方面,我也對我們目前的位置以及未來的形態感到非常、非常有信心。Juan 一直在談的信貸產品、Cash App Card、Cash attach,以及像是 tags、App Tags、在 Cash App Card 上整合 Afterpay 等等,我們對自身的變現能力感到非常有信心。

  • And then on the engagement side, I would say some areas are great. And then some areas, honestly, like I think that we can do a better job, and I'm kind of always focused on these areas where I think we can do a better job, and I'm digging in here myself.

    至於使用參與度方面,我會說有些領域表現很棒。但也有些領域,坦白說,我認為我們可以做得更好;而我總是把注意力放在那些我覺得可以做得更好的地方,我也正在親自深入研究。

  • So on the Commerce Enablement side, I think it looks really good. We have a 10% attached to buy now, pay later, which is both like quite meaningful, but it's pretty clear we're just getting started here. Similarly, I feel really good about the four-week to six-week cutover on the borrow side that Juan touched on.

    所以在商務賦能(Commerce Enablement)方面,我認為看起來非常好。我們有 10% 的「附帶」採用先買後付(buy now, pay later),這既相當有意義,但也很明顯我們才剛起步。同樣地,對於 Juan 提到的借款(borrow)端四到六週的切換期,我也感到非常有信心。

  • In terms of where I want to focus and where I think we can do better, it's really on the primary banking actives side. Growth moderated a touch Q2 to Q3. I'm confident we can do better, and we have a bunch of work right now that I expect to flow through in the coming quarters. But also, we just want to call out that there's nothing that you need to believe or rely on in terms of like a reacceleration on the engagement side when you think about our 2027 preliminary guidance.

    就我想聚焦、以及我認為我們可以做得更好的地方而言,主要是在主力銀行(primary banking)活躍用戶這一側。從 Q2 到 Q3 成長稍微趨緩了一點。我有信心我們可以做得更好,而且我們目前正在進行一系列工作,我預期會在接下來幾季逐步反映出來。但同時我們也想強調:當你看我們 2027 年的初步指引時,你不需要去相信或依賴使用參與度會重新加速這件事。

  • So I guess, if I put all of that together, I'd say what we're going to do is, one, just keep on focusing on executing for our core customer base. There's still just massive opportunity there. Second, I think we're increasingly moving upmarket. Neighborhoods is pulling us upmarket.

    所以我想,如果把這些都整合起來,我會說我們要做的是:第一,持續專注於為核心客群把執行做到位。那裡仍然有巨大的機會。第二,我認為我們正愈來愈往中高端市場(upmarket)移動。Neighborhoods 正在把我們往中高端市場拉升。

  • The incremental actives that Neighborhoods is contributing to Cash App skew more upmarket from an average household income perspective versus our core base. And so now we have an opportunity to build in that space. And then eventually, we're going to take Cash App global.

    從平均家庭收入的角度來看,Neighborhoods 為 Cash App 帶來的新增活躍用戶,相較於我們的核心用戶基礎,更偏向中高端市場。因此我們現在有機會在那個區間建立布局。然後最終,我們會讓 Cash App 走向全球。

  • I see my role in this as, one, what are we doing to drive more actives and really focusing on those differentiated distribution channels? And then two, do we have the right set of capabilities that we can then compose into Cash App so that more customers can do more stuff with Cash? And this whole thing is just going to result in more value for more customers. And then naturally, that's leading to compounding growth and thus value for shareholders. So that's how I think about the equation.

    我認為我在這件事上的角色是:第一,我們要做什麼來推動更多活躍用戶,並真正聚焦在那些差異化的分發/獲客渠道?第二,我們是否具備正確的一組能力,能夠組合進 Cash App,讓更多客戶能用 Cash 做更多事情?而整體將會為更多客戶帶來更多價值。然後自然而然地,這會帶來複利式成長,進而為股東創造價值。這就是我看待這個等式的方式。

  • That's how I think about where we are, and that's why I'm confident that we'll be able to execute and sustain really healthy growth into '27 and beyond.

    這就是我對我們現況的看法,也因此我有信心我們能夠執行到位,並在 '27 年及之後維持非常健康的成長。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you for participating in today's call. You may now disconnect.

    感謝您參與今天的電話會議。您現在可以掛線。