XPO, Inc. (XPO) 2026 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the XPO Q1 2026 earnings conference call and webcast. My name is Kevin, and I'll be your operator for today's call. (Operator Instructions) Please note that this conference is being recorded. Before the call begins, let me read a brief statement on behalf of the company regarding forward-looking statements and the use of non-GAAP financial measures.

歡迎收聽 XPO 2026 年第一季財報電話會議與網路直播。我是 Kevin，將擔任今天會議的接線員。（接線員指示）請注意，本次會議將被錄音。在會議開始前，讓我代表公司宣讀一段簡短聲明，內容關於前瞻性陳述以及非 GAAP 財務衡量指標的使用。

During this call, the company will be making certain forward-looking statements within the meaning of applicable securities laws, which, by their nature, involve a number of risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements.

在本次電話會議中，公司將在適用證券法規的意義下作出若干前瞻性陳述；此類陳述本質上涉及多項風險、不確定性及其他因素，可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中所預期的結果出現重大差異。

A discussion of factors that could cause actual results to differ materially is contained in the company's SEC filings as well as its earnings release. The forward-looking statements in the company's earnings release are made on this call are made only as of today, and the company has no obligation to update any of these forward-looking statements, except to the extent required by law.

可能導致實際結果與預期結果出現重大差異之因素的討論，載於公司向 SEC 提交的文件以及其財報新聞稿中。公司財報新聞稿中的前瞻性陳述以及在本次電話會議中所作之陳述，僅以今日為準；除法律要求外，公司無義務更新任何此等前瞻性陳述。

During the call, the company also may refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures as defined under applicable SEC rules. Reconciliations of such non-GAAP financial measures to the most comparable GAAP measures are contained in the company's earnings release and the related financial tables or on its website. You can find a copy of the company's earnings release, which contains additional information, important information regarding forward-looking statements and non-GAAP financial measures in the Investors Section of the company's website.

在本次電話會議中，公司亦可能提及依適用 SEC 規則所定義的若干非 GAAP 財務衡量指標。此等非 GAAP 財務衡量指標與最可比 GAAP 指標之調節表，載於公司財報新聞稿及相關財務表格或公司網站上。您可於公司網站的投資人專區取得公司財報新聞稿副本，其中包含額外資訊、關於前瞻性陳述的重要資訊，以及非 GAAP 財務衡量指標的相關資訊。

I will now turn the call over to XPO's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Mario Harik. Mr. Harik, you may begin.

現在我將把電話會議交給 XPO 董事長兼執行長 Mario Harik。Harik 先生，請開始。

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. I'm here with Kyle Wismans, our Chief Financial Officer; and Ali Faghri, our Chief Strategy Officer. This morning, we reported record first quarter earnings with strong momentum across the business. Company-wide, we delivered adjusted EBITDA of $319 million, up 15% year-over-year, and our adjusted diluted EPS was $1.01, up 38%. In North American LTL, we increased adjusted operating income by 20%, and we delivered an adjusted operating ratio of 83.9%, that's an improvement of 200 basis points year-over-year, which is also well ahead of normal seasonality.

各位早安，感謝各位加入我們。今天與我一同出席的有我們的財務長 Kyle Wismans，以及策略長 Ali Faghri。今天早上，我們公布了創紀錄的第一季獲利，整體業務動能強勁。以全公司來看，我們的調整後 EBITDA 為 3.19 億美元，年增 15%；調整後稀釋每股盈餘為 1.01 美元，年增 38%。在北美 LTL 業務方面，我們的調整後營業利益成長 20%，並達成 83.9% 的調整後營業比率，較去年同期改善 200 個基點，也明顯優於正常季節性表現。

These results mark a clear acceleration of outperformance driven by the disciplined execution of our strategy. It starts with customer service where we continue to make significant progress. In the first quarter, we reduced our damage claims ratio below 0.2% with damages at a record low. This is the service metric that matters most LTL customers. We've developed new AI-driven technology that addresses damages by improving how we load our trailers.

這些成果清楚顯示，在我們嚴謹執行策略的帶動下，超越同業的表現正在加速。首先是客戶服務，我們持續取得顯著進展。第一季，我們將貨損理賠比率降至 0.2% 以下，貨損降至歷史新低。這是對 LTL 客戶而言最重要的服務指標。我們開發了新的 AI 驅動技術，透過改善拖車裝載方式來降低貨損。

These tools evaluate load quality in real time and helps us protect our customers' freight. We're also running one of the fastest networks in the industry with the largest number of standard one-day and two-day. Our mix of speed, coverage and safe handling combined with reliable on-time performance is delivering a superior experience for our customers. And this is translating into better commercial outcomes, including stronger pricing and ongoing market share gains. We've also built our network to support growth by investing ahead of demand across our workforce, fleet and service centers.

這些工具可即時評估裝載品質，並協助我們保護客戶的貨物。我們也營運業界速度最快的網路之一，並擁有最多的標準一日與二日送達服務。我們在速度、覆蓋範圍與安全裝卸的組合，加上可靠的準時表現，為客戶帶來更優質的體驗。這也轉化為更佳的商業成果，包括更強的定價能力與持續的市占率提升。我們也透過在人力、車隊與服務中心等方面超前需求投資，打造可支援成長的網路。

These are the three main components of capacity to move freight for our customers. On the real estate side, we've added density in growth markets, and we continue to operate with more than 30% excess store capacity. This allows us to run our network efficiency today and respond quickly as volumes recover. Another area where we invest to gain a competitive edge is in our rolling stock of tractors and trailers. We have one of the youngest fleets in the industry with an average tractor age of 3.9 years.

這些是我們為客戶運送貨物之運能的三大主要構成要素。在不動產方面，我們在成長市場提升了網點密度，且目前仍維持超過 30% 的閒置服務中心產能。這使我們能在當下有效率地運行網路，並在貨量回升時快速因應。我們投資以取得競爭優勢的另一個領域，是牽引車與拖車等車輛資產。我們擁有業界最年輕的車隊之一，牽引車平均車齡為 3.9 年。

This gives us an advantage with reliability, safety and lower maintenance costs. Trailers are just as critical to capacity because they enable more efficient freight flows across our network. We've manufactured more than 20,000 trailers since the start of the trade down cycle. And from a labor standpoint, we have a proprietary workforce planning model that uses technology to flexed labor hours as demand changes. This allows us to improve productivity while maintaining high service levels.

這讓我們在可靠性、安全性以及較低維修成本方面具備優勢。拖車對運能同樣關鍵，因為它們能讓貨物流在我們的網路中更有效率地流動。自景氣下行循環開始以來，我們已製造超過 20,000 輛拖車。在人力方面，我們擁有專有的人力規劃模型，運用科技在需求變動時彈性調整工時。這使我們在維持高服務水準的同時提升生產力。

Taken together, our investments in capacity are creating strong operating leverage that will enhance our bottom line as the cycle turns. Another strategic lever is pricing, where we saw continued momentum in the quarter, with underlying trends that improve each month. As demand recovers, customers place more value on carriers that can rely on for both capacity and consistent service and that translates into stronger pricing and continued share gains for us.

綜合而言，我們在運能上的投資正在創造強勁的營運槓桿，將在景氣循環回升時提升我們的獲利表現。另一個策略槓桿是定價；本季我們持續看到動能，且每個月的基本趨勢都在改善。隨著需求回升，客戶會更重視能同時提供運能與一致服務的承運商，這將轉化為更強的定價能力以及我們持續的市占率提升。

One area where we're continuing to earn market share is with local customers. In the first quarter, we grew shipments in this high-margin channel by mid- to high single digits, an acceleration from the prior quarter. We're also continuing to shift towards higher-quality freight, including shipments that did our premium services. The demand for our rollout offering was a key driver of our margin improvement in the first quarter. And we're seeing increased adoption in verticals like grocery and health care, where we fill a definite need as customers in these segments have service-sensitive freight.

我們持續取得市占的其中一個領域，是本地客戶。第一季，我們在這個高毛利通路的出貨量以中到高個位數成長，較前一季加速。我們也持續將貨物組合轉向更高品質的貨源，包括使用我們高端服務的貨運。對我們 rollout 產品的需求，是第一季毛利率改善的關鍵推動因素。我們也看到在雜貨與醫療保健等垂直領域的採用增加；在這些領域中，客戶的貨物對服務敏感，而我們能滿足其明確需求。

In short, we have multiple levers we can execute and a long runway to build on our momentum with a double-digit pricing opportunity over the years to come. And lastly, another important driver of our outperformance is cost efficiency. In the first quarter, our productivity improvement of 4% was well above our long-term target of 1.5%. We achieved this by ramping our technology to ensure that the benefits are both durable and scalable. Specifically, we're leveraging proprietary tools that use AI to improve planning, optimize trade flows and enhance day-to-day that with execution.

總而言之，我們有多項可執行的槓桿，並有很長的跑道可在既有動能上持續發揮；未來數年也存在雙位數的定價機會。最後，推動我們超越同業表現的另一個重要因素是成本效率。第一季，我們的生產力提升 4%，明顯高於我們 1.5% 的長期目標。我們透過加速導入科技來達成，確保效益既具持久性也可擴展。具體而言，我們正運用以 AI 為核心的專有工具，改善規劃、最佳化貨物流向，並強化日常執行。

This is especially valuable in linehaul and pickup and delivery operations where the savings can be significant. For example, we've rolled out our pickup and delivery tools for route optimization to about half the network, and we're seeing tangible efficiencies, including fewer miles and more stops per hour. We expect to have this fully implemented by the end of the year. And to bring down our purchase transportation costs, we've reduced outsourced miles to some of the lowest levels in our history. This has given us a more flexible cost structure that mitigates our exposure to rises and truckload rates.

這在幹線運輸以及取貨與配送作業中特別有價值，因為節省幅度可能相當可觀。例如，我們已將取貨與配送的路線最佳化工具推廣至約半數網路，並看到具體效率提升，包括行駛里程更少、每小時停靠點更多。我們預期在今年年底前全面導入。為了降低外購運輸成本，我們已將外包里程降至歷史低檔水準之一。這使我們的成本結構更具彈性，降低我們對燃油價格上升與整車運價上漲的曝險。

Importantly, these initiatives are driving structural improvements that will scale as volumes recover, creating further opportunities for margin expansion. In closing, our strong start of the year reflects the strength of our model and the consistency of our execution. We have a clear line of sight to achieving an LTL operating ratio in the 70s driven by ongoing service improvements, profitable share gains, above-market yield growth and robust cost efficiency across our network. Increasingly, all four of these drivers will be propelled by our proprietary technology and AI. We also see a significant opportunity to further compound earnings as we expect to generate billions of dollars of cumulative free cash flow in the coming years, accelerating share repurchases and debt reduction.

重要的是，這些措施正在推動結構性改善，並將在貨量回升時同步放大，為毛利率擴張創造更多機會。最後，我們今年強勁的開局反映了我們商業模式的實力以及執行的一致性。我們清楚可見達成 LTL 營業比率降至 70% 區間的路徑，動能來自持續的服務改善、具獲利性的市占提升、優於市場的單位收益成長，以及全網路強健的成本效率。而這四項驅動因素將愈來愈多地由我們的專有技術與 AI 所推動。我們也看到進一步複利化獲利的重大機會；我們預期未來數年將產生累計數十億美元的自由現金流，加速股票回購與降低負債。

This is how we're building our path to long-term value creation for our shareholders. With that, I'll turn it over to Kyle to walk through the financials. Kyle, over to you.

這就是我們如何為股東打造通往長期價值創造的道路。接下來，我把時間交給 Kyle，請他帶大家回顧財務表現。Kyle，交給你。

Thank you, Mario, and good morning, everyone. I'll take you through our key financial results, balance sheet and capital allocation. For the first quarter, total company revenue was $2.1 billion, an increase of 7% year-over-year. Revenue in our LTL segment grew 5% to $1.2 billion, primarily driven by higher yield and fuel surcharge revenue. On the cost side in LTL, we continue to operate more efficiently and with less reliance on purchase transportation.

謝謝你，Mario，各位早安。我將帶各位回顧我們的主要財務結果、資產負債表以及資本配置。第一季，公司總營收為 21 億美元，年增 7%。我們的 LTL（零擔）部門營收成長 5% 至 12 億美元，主要由較高的收益率與燃油附加費收入所帶動。在 LTL 的成本面，我們持續以更高效率營運，並降低對外購運輸（purchase transportation）的依賴。

Our productivity gains in the quarter helped mitigate the impact of wage inflation, linehaul insourcing and volume growth. Our salary wage and benefit expense increased year-over-year by 4% or $27 million. On purchase transportation, we enhanced our structural cost improvement by further reducing our use of third-party carriers. This will help us control linehaul costs as the cycle recovers and truckload rates rise. Depreciation expense increased by $8 million or 10% year-over-year, reflecting our continued investment in the network to support long-term growth.

本季的生產力提升有助於抵消薪資通膨、幹線運輸內製（linehaul insourcing）以及運量成長的影響。我們的薪資、工資與福利費用年增 4%，或增加 2,700 萬美元。在外購運輸方面，我們透過進一步降低第三方承運商的使用，強化了結構性成本改善。這將有助於我們在景氣循環復甦、整車（truckload）運價上升時，控制幹線運輸成本。折舊費用年增 800 萬美元或 10%，反映我們持續投資於網路以支持長期成長。

Turning to profitability. We increased adjusted EBITDA company-wide by 15% to $319 million. Our adjusted EBITDA margin was 15.2%, an improvement of 100 basis points from the first quarter of the prior year. In our LTL segment, we grew adjusted operating income by 20% to $198 million and adjusted EBITDA by 16% to $290 million. Our LTL adjusted EBITDA margin improved by 230 basis points to 23.6%.

接著談獲利能力。我們全公司調整後 EBITDA 提升 15% 至 3.19 億美元。調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 15.2%，較去年第一季改善 100 個基點。在 LTL 部門，我們調整後營業利益成長 20% 至 1.98 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 成長 16% 至 2.90 億美元。LTL 調整後 EBITDA 利潤率提升 230 個基點至 23.6%。

In our European transportation segment, adjusted EBITDA was $33 million. And in our Corporate segment, adjusted EBITDA was a $4 million loss. Returning to the company as a whole, we reported operating income of $174 million for the quarter, up 15% year-over-year, and we grew net income by 46% to $101 million, representing diluted earnings per share of $0.85. On an adjusted basis, diluted EPS was $1.01, an increase of 38% year-over-year. Moving to cash flow and CapEx.

在歐洲運輸部門，調整後 EBITDA 為 3,300 萬美元。在公司（Corporate）部門，調整後 EBITDA 為虧損 400 萬美元。回到公司整體，我們本季營業利益為 1.74 億美元，年增 15%；淨利成長 46% 至 1.01 億美元，稀釋後每股盈餘為 0.85 美元。以調整後口徑計算，稀釋後 EPS 為 1.01 美元，年增 38%。接著談現金流與資本支出（CapEx）。

We generated $183 million of cash flow from operating activities in the quarter and deployed $104 million of net capital expenditures. We ended the quarter with $237 million of cash on hand after repurchasing $30 million of common stock and paying down $30 million on our term loan facility. Combined with available capacity under our committed borrowing facility, our total liquidity at quarter end was $837 million. Our net leverage ratio was 2.3 times trailing 12 months adjusted EBITDA, down from 2.4 times at year-end 2015, continuing the trend over the last two years. We expect a meaningful step-up in free cash flow generation this year with momentum building over the next few years.

本季我們由營運活動產生 1.83 億美元現金流，並投入 1.04 億美元的淨資本支出。在回購 3,000 萬美元普通股並償還定期貸款融資（term loan facility）3,000 萬美元後，本季期末現金餘額為 2.37 億美元。加上我們已承諾借款融資（committed borrowing facility）的可用額度，季末總流動性為 8.37 億美元。我們的淨槓桿比率為過去 12 個月調整後 EBITDA 的 2.3 倍，低於 2015 年底的 2.4 倍，延續過去兩年的下降趨勢。我們預期今年自由現金流的產生將顯著提升，並在未來幾年持續累積動能。

This should accelerate the pace of share repurchases and deleveraging. Before I wrap up, I want to highlight an update to our full year 2026 planning assumptions. We now expect our adjusted effective tax rate to be in the range of 23% to 24%. This is reflected in the latest investor presentation. Our other planning assumptions for the year remain unchanged.

這將加快股票回購與去槓桿（deleveraging）的步伐。在我結束之前，我想重點說明我們對 2026 全年規劃假設的一項更新。我們目前預期調整後有效稅率將落在 23% 至 24% 的區間。這已反映在最新的投資人簡報中。我們今年其他規劃假設維持不變。

With that, I'll hand it over to Ali to walk through our operating results.

接下來，我把時間交給 Ali，請他帶大家回顧營運結果。

Thank you, Kyle. I'll start with our LTL performance where we delivered another quarter of strong execution and outsized margin expansion. Shipments per day increased 3% year-over-year, while weight per shipment decreased 2.8%, resulting in tonnage per day turning positive by 0.1%. We're continuing to drive profitable growth in the business by increasing the number of shipments, improving network density and prioritizing both freight quality and mix to support yields and margins. Our mix has managed to specific objectives, including share gains with local customers and market penetration with our premium offerings, and we're showing that we can achieve these objectives in any environment.

謝謝你，Kyle。我先從 LTL 表現談起；我們又交出一季強勁的執行成果與超預期的利潤率擴張。每日出貨量年增 3%，而每票重量下降 2.8%，使得每日噸數轉為小幅正成長 0.1%。我們持續透過增加出貨票數、提升網路密度，並優先管理貨物品質與組合，以支撐收益率與利潤率，來推動業務的獲利性成長。我們的組合管理聚焦於明確目標，包括在本地客戶的市占提升，以及以高端產品（premium offerings）提高市場滲透率；我們也證明在任何環境下都能達成這些目標。

Looking at the first quarter trend year-over-year by month, January tonnage was flat. February was up 0.1%, and March was down 0.4%. Notably, shipments per day trended up each month. January was up 1.2%. February was up 3% and March was up 3.8%.

以月份來看第一季年對年趨勢，1 月噸數持平。2 月成長 0.1%，3 月下降 0.4%。值得注意的是，每日出貨量每個月都呈上升趨勢。1 月成長 1.2%。2 月成長 3%，3 月成長 3.8%。

For April, we estimate that tonnage will be down about 1 point compared with last year outpacing typical seasonality and that weight per shipment will improve sequentially and on a year-over-year basis versus March, also trending better than seasonality. Turning to pricing. We delivered another quarter of above-market performance with yield up 4% year-over-year, excluding fuel. Importantly, our strong pricing trajectory is continuing to trend up. We expect both yield and revenue per shipment, excluding fuel, to accelerate on a year-over-year basis and improve sequentially through the balance of the year.

就 4 月而言，我們估計噸數將較去年下降約 1 個百分點，降幅超過典型季節性；同時，每票重量將較 3 月呈現環比改善，且年對年也會改善，整體走勢同樣優於季節性。接著談定價。我們再度交出一季優於市場的表現：在排除燃油因素後，收益率年增 4%。重要的是，我們強勁的定價軌跡仍在持續上行。我們預期在排除燃油後，收益率與每票收入將在年對年比較上加速成長，並在今年剩餘期間持續環比改善。

We're driving this internally through continuous improvement in service and externally with our local customer base and premium offerings. These channels are both gaining traction with customers. Looking at first quarter profitability in LTL, we reported a 200 basis point improvement in our adjusted operating ratio year-over-year. We also improved margins sequentially, outperforming normal seasonality by 100 basis points. This reflects our momentum with pricing as well as the application of our technology, which excels at productivity and cost control.

我們在內部透過持續改善服務來推動，並在外部透過本地客戶基礎與高端產品來推進。這兩個通路都正在獲得客戶的採用與動能。觀察 LTL 第一季獲利能力，我們的調整後營業比率（adjusted operating ratio）年對年改善 200 個基點。我們也在環比上改善利潤率，較正常季節性表現優出 100 個基點。這反映了我們在定價上的動能，以及我們技術的應用；該技術在提升生產力與成本控管方面表現出色。

Most recently, our AI tools are enabling precision planning and execution in driving operating efficiencies consistently across the network. Turning to Europe. We continue to generate strong results. First quarter revenue increased 11% year-over-year. This was our ninth consecutive quarter of growth on a constant currency basis and we delivered another quarter of adjusted EBITDA growth that was better than seasonality relative to the fourth quarter.

最近，我們的 AI 工具正透過精準規劃與執行，讓整個網路的營運效率得以持續且一致地提升。接著談歐洲。我們持續創造強勁成果。第一季營收年增 11%。以固定匯率（constant currency）計算，這是我們連續第九季成長；相較第四季，我們也再度交出一季優於季節性的調整後 EBITDA 成長。

Before we move to Q&A, I'd like to summarize the key drivers of our momentum in LTL. First is above-market pricing growth, which we support by ensuring our customers receive strong service. This dovetails with our focus on mix and freight quality. And as I mentioned, we expect our pricing trajectory to accelerate as we move through 2026. At the same time, we're creating structural cost advantages in our network through productivity gains, capacity investments and the ramping of our technology. Each of these levers has a sustainable impact on our best-in-class margin expansion and each represents significant upside as the cycle inflects.

在進入問答之前，我想總結 LTL 動能的關鍵驅動因素。第一是優於市場的定價成長，我們透過確保客戶獲得優質服務來支撐這一點。這也與我們對組合與貨物品質的聚焦相輔相成。如我所提，我們預期在 2026 年推進的過程中，定價軌跡將加速。同時，我們正透過生產力提升、產能投資以及技術的加速導入，在網路中建立結構性成本優勢。上述每一項槓桿都能對我們同級最佳的利潤率擴張帶來可持續的影響，且當景氣循環出現拐點時，每一項都代表顯著的上行空間。

With that, we'll take your questions. Operator, please open the line for Q&A.

接下來，我們將開始回答各位的提問。接線員，請開放問答線路。

(Operator Instructions)

(接線員指示)

Ken Hoexter, Bank of America.

Ken Hoexter，美國銀行。

Congrats on strong performance here as we see some rebound. But Ali, maybe just -- or Mario, talk about contract renewals. You talked about strong pricing. Should we see a deceleration in core pricing, given the acceleration of fuel? Maybe just talk about the mix there?

恭喜你們在我們看到一些反彈之際，仍交出強勁表現。不過 Ali，也許——或 Mario——談談合約續約的情況。你們提到定價很強。在燃油加速上漲的情況下，我們是否會看到核心定價放緩？也請談談其中的組合變化？

And then, Ali, just given the impact on that, your thoughts on sequential operating ratio. If we're outperforming seasonality by a sizable amount here in the first quarter and you're getting that pricing, does that accelerate and continue to outperform seasonality as we look into the next quarter or two?

另外，Ali，考量其影響，你對於營業比率（OR）的季比走勢有何看法。如果我們在第一季大幅優於季節性表現，且你們也取得那樣的定價，當我們展望接下來一到兩季時，是否會加速並持續優於季節性？

Yes, you got it, Ken. This is Mario. So our contract renewals in the first quarter accelerated from where we had in the fourth quarter. they went up in the mid- to high single digits in Q1 of this year. Now we also expect from a yield perspective, an acceleration, as Ali mentioned earlier, both from a yield ex fuel perspective and revenue per shipment perspective on year-on-year and sequentially in Q2 and through the rest of the year.

是的，Ken，你說得沒錯。我是 Mario。我們第一季的合約續約相較第四季有所加速；今年第一季續約價格上調幅度達到中到高個位數百分比。此外，從收益率角度來看，正如 Ali 先前提到的，我們也預期會加速成長，無論是扣除燃油的收益率（yield ex fuel）或每票收入（revenue per shipment），在第二季以及今年其餘期間，年比與季比都將加速。

In terms of an outlook, based on what we have seen so far here and what we delivered in Q1, we do expect another strong quarter of margin performance in the second quarter. If you look at seasonal trends over the long term, we typically see our OR improve 250 to 300 basis points sequentially from Q1 into Q2 and we expect to comfortably outperform the high end of that seasonal range in the second quarter.

就展望而言，基於我們目前所見以及第一季的交付成果，我們預期第二季的利潤率表現仍將強勁。若看長期季節性趨勢，我們的 OR 通常會從第一季到第二季季比改善 250 到 300 個基點，而我們預期第二季將可明顯優於該季節性區間的上緣。

This would also mean that on a year-on-year basis, we expect to improve OR in the second quarter more than we did in the first quarter. That's even a fast for us to get to a with an OR handle. I mean, obviously, we'll see how the rest of the quarter here would roll out. And this will be overall a strong outcome, given that we're still in the early innings of what could be a recovery year.

這也意味著，以年比來看，我們預期第二季 OR 的改善幅度將大於第一季。這甚至對我們而言也是很快就能把 OR 拉到一個可控的水準。當然，我們還要看本季接下來的進展會如何。整體而言，考量我們仍處於可能是復甦年度的早期階段，這將是一個強勁的成果。

Richa Harnain, Deutsche Bank.

Richa Harnain，德意志銀行。

I guess I just want to better understand what's happening on the pricing and weight per shipment side. I believe revenue per shipment was expected to come in mid-single digit range for the year. Rate per shipment to be roughly flattish. We're starting the year below target on both. Also revenue per hundred it was not as strong as I would have expected, despite the lower weight per shipment.

我想更清楚了解每票定價與每票重量方面到底發生了什麼。我記得全年每票收入原本預期落在中個位數百分比區間。每票費率（rate per shipment）則大致持平。但我們今年開局在這兩項指標上都低於目標。此外，每百磅收入（revenue per hundredweight）也沒有我預期的那麼強，儘管每票重量較低。

So just trying to understand, obviously, Mario, you said you saw continued momentum in the quarter, are pricing should accelerate. I just want to make sure that those are still targets for the year, appropriate targets. And then obviously, comps are a factor. But just generally, what's going to get us back to the acceleration phase.

所以我想了解的是，顯然 Mario 你說本季動能持續、定價應該會加速。我只是想確認，這些仍是今年的目標、而且是合適的目標。當然，同期比較也是因素之一。但更一般地說，什麼會讓我們回到加速成長的階段？

Yes, Richa, it's Kyle. So just I want to highlight a little bit on yield. So as we talked about for the first quarter, we had another strong quarter of pricing performance. I think as Mario mentioned, a lot of the strong pricing translated to our OR outperformance in the quarter. So for Q1, we were 100 basis points better than normal seasonality and on a year-over-year basis, we improved more than 200 basis points.

是的，Richa，我是 Kyle。我想先補充說明一下收益率（yield）。如同我們談到的，第一季我們又交出一個定價表現強勁的季度。我想如 Mario 所提，許多強勁的定價表現轉化為本季 OR 的超預期表現。因此在第一季，我們比正常季節性好 100 個基點，且以年比來看，我們改善超過 200 個基點。

And based on the price improvement we're seeing here in March and April, we would expect both yield and rev per shipment ex fuel to accelerate on a year-over-year basis in Q2 and through the rest of the year. I think what's important is reflecting an increasingly constructive price environment as well as about our internal initiatives help drive price further in the future.

而根據我們在 3 月與 4 月看到的價格改善，我們預期第二季以及今年其餘期間，扣除燃油的收益率（yield ex fuel）與扣除燃油的每票收入（rev per shipment ex fuel）在年比基礎上都將加速。我認為重要的是，這反映出定價環境愈發建設性，同時也反映我們內部的各項措施將在未來進一步推動價格。

And then, Richa, on the weight per shipment side, specifically. So if you look at Q1, our weight per shipment was down 2.8% on a year-over-year basis. That was up about 2 points sequentially versus the fourth quarter, and that's very consistent with the typical step-up that we see as we move from Q4 into Q1. Now weight per shipment for us can bounce around from month to month.

另外，Richa，針對每票重量的部分。若看第一季，我們的每票重量年比下降 2.8%。相較第四季季比約上升 2 個百分點，這與我們從第四季進入第一季時通常看到的階梯式回升非常一致。不過對我們而言，每票重量可能會在各月份之間上下波動。

Specifically, if you look at Q1 for us, we did ramp out the rollout of some of our premium services throughout the quarter. We're also taking a lot of share with local customers. And both of those channels do come with a lower weight per shipment profile However, they are very accretive to our margins. And ultimately, that's what drove that meaningful OR outperformance in the first quarter.

具體來看第一季，我們在整個季度逐步擴大部分高端服務（premium services）的推廣。我們也在本地客戶（local customers）方面取得大量市占。而這兩個渠道的每票重量輪廓確實較低；但它們對我們的利潤率非常有增益。最終，這正是推動第一季 OR 顯著優於預期的原因。

Now I think more recently, what's more encouraging is that weight per shipment trends have started to improve. So here in the month of April, per shipment was down about 1 point on a year-over-year basis. That was about 2 points better than typical seasonality. Usually, we see weight per shipment decline sequentially from March into April, and we actually saw an increase sequentially. And ultimately, that's what gives us confidence in that week for shipment trend improving as we move through the balance of the year.

我認為近期更令人鼓舞的是，每票重量的趨勢已開始改善。因此在 4 月，每票重量年比約下降 1 個百分點。這比典型季節性好約 2 個百分點。通常我們會看到每票重量從 3 月到 4 月季比下滑，但我們實際上看到季比上升。而這也讓我們對於今年剩餘期間每票重量趨勢持續改善更有信心。

Scott Group, Wolfe Research.

Scott Group，Wolfe Research。

With the tonnage update is helpful, but I feel like comps get a little easier as the quarter goes on. Obviously, we've got big tailwinds coming from fuel. Any sort of directional thoughts on how you guys are thinking about sort of like total rev per day trends for the quarter? And then just given Q1 and the Q2 guide, like it feels like there should be good upside to the full year OR guidance of 100 to 150 basis points. Any sort of updated thoughts on how the full year OR could now look?

噸位更新很有幫助，但我覺得隨著季度推進，同期比較會變得稍微容易一些。顯然，我們有來自燃油的巨大順風。你們對本季每日總收入（total rev per day）趨勢的方向性看法是什麼？另外，考量第一季以及第二季指引，我感覺全年 OR 指引改善 100 到 150 個基點應該有不錯的上行空間。對於全年 OR 現在可能的走勢，你們有沒有更新的看法？

So Scott, I'll start with the second quarter in terms of the moving pieces and then pass it to Mario on the full year. In terms of Q2, from a tonnage standpoint, if you just roll forward normal seasonality from here and keep in mind, we do have slightly tougher comps in the months of April and May, and then June gets much easier on a year-over-year basis. We would expect tonnage to improve in each month of the quarter, and that would put full quarter tonnage flattish on a year-over-year basis.

Scott，我先從第二季的各項變動因素談起，然後再交給 Mario 談全年。就第二季而言，從噸位角度，如果你把正常季節性往前推進，同時記得 4 月與 5 月的同期比較稍微更具挑戰，而 6 月在年比基礎上會容易得多。我們預期本季每個月份的噸位都會改善，這將使得整季噸位在年比上大致持平。

From a pricing standpoint, as Kyle noted, we do expect our yield ex fuel and revenue per shipment ex fuel to accelerate on a year-over-year basis. here in the second quarter, we'd expect our yield to be comfortable in that mid-single-digit range here in the second quarter. So that should give you kind of some of the moving pieces in terms of the top line outlook.

從定價角度，如 Kyle 所指出，我們確實預期第二季扣除燃油的收益率（yield ex fuel）與扣除燃油的每票收入（revenue per shipment ex fuel）在年比基礎上加速。在第二季，我們預期收益率可穩健落在中個位數百分比區間。

And Scott, for the full year OR, I mean, as you mentioned, we delivered here in Q1, better-than-expected OR outlook than when we started the year. And we do expect Q2 to also be better than what we expected from the beginning of the year. As I mentioned earlier, we do expect to constantly outperform the seasonal trend into Q2 from Q1 and improve on a year-on-year basis, more than we did here in the first quarter. So it's fair to say that we had a high degree of confidence in potentially outperforming our outlook of 100 to 150 basis points of margin improvement this year. Now there are also more things that can go well.

Scott，就全年 OR 而言，我是說，如你所提到的，我們在第一季的表現，交出了比年初預期更好的 OR 展望。我們也預期第二季同樣會優於年初的預期。如我先前提到的，我們預期從第一季到第二季將持續跑贏季節性趨勢，並且在年對年基礎上改善幅度會大於第一季。因此，可以說我們對於今年可能超越我們所給出的 100 到 150 個基點的利潤率改善展望，具有高度信心。當然，也還有更多事情可能進展得更好。

I mean, from a volume perspective, so far, volume has tracked in line with our expectations, Q1 through April, but we are hearing more possibility from our customers. So if we start seeing volume inflect as we head into the back half of the year, where underlying demand continues to pick up steam, then obviously, all of that would be upside to our forecast. If you look on the pricing side, as Ali mentioned, we expect an acceleration in Q2 for both yield and rest of ship, and we expect that to continue through the balance of the year as well.

我的意思是，從量的角度來看，截至目前，從第一季到四月，量的走勢與我們的預期一致，但我們也從客戶那裡聽到更多可能性。因此，如果我們開始看到量在進入下半年時出現拐點、而且基本需求持續增溫，那麼顯然這些都會成為我們預測的上行因素。若看定價面，如 Ali 所提到的，我們預期第二季在單價（yield）以及其餘出貨（rest of ship）兩方面都會加速，並且也預期這種趨勢會延續到今年剩餘期間。

When you look at the cost side, our execution has been excellent. I'm very proud of the team in terms of having typically if you wanted a volatile quarter, but you couple that with fantastic AI and technology tools we launched, we've already so far launched our P&D optimization AI tool for half our network, and we haven't even done the large locations yet.

從成本面來看，我們的執行非常出色。我為團隊感到非常自豪；通常如果你想要一個波動的季度，但同時我們也推出了很棒的 AI 與科技工具——到目前為止，我們已在半數網路上推出了取送（P&D）最佳化 AI 工具，而且我們甚至還沒在大型據點部署。

And if you look at our outperformance in the first quarter, we improved productivity by 4 points. If that continues to compound through the rest of the year, all of that could be upside as well. So again, we started the year with a lot of momentum in terms of Q1 and Q2. And we -- it's still early in the year, though, obviously, as we make progress here, we'll update on the full year as we continue to deliver those kind of numbers.

如果你看我們在第一季的超預期表現，我們的生產力提升了 4 個百分點。如果這種改善在今年剩餘期間持續累積，那也都可能成為上行因素。所以再說一次，我們在第一季與第二季的動能上，是以很強的勢頭開局。而且——當然現在仍是年初階段，但隨著我們持續推進、交出這類數字，我們也會就全年表現持續更新。

Fadi Chamoun, BMO Capital Markets.

Fadi Chamoun，BMO Capital Markets。

I think you touched on this a little bit, I'm not clear. I understand the revenue per shipment year-on-year and quarter-over-quarter, I think was the weakest performance that we have seen since 2023. And you talked about mix and a few other things. I just want to make sure I understand why you've seen this deceleration in Q1? And obviously, you're talking about an acceleration going forward, I suppose that's driven by the yield.

我想你稍微提到了一點，但我還是不太清楚。我理解每件出貨收入（revenue per shipment）的年對年與季對季表現，我認為是自 2023 年以來我們看到的最弱表現。你提到了組合（mix）以及其他一些因素。我只是想確認我理解正確：為什麼你們在第一季會看到這樣的放緩？而且顯然你們談到未來會加速，我想那是由單價（yield）所驅動。

But my main question really, I'll start with this clarification is, can you talk a little bit about what you're seeing from the customers' conversation in terms of what the demand outlook looks like weight per shipment seem to kind of be moving a little bit in other direction? Are we seeing more pallets? Or are you seeing -- like what are you seeing on the kind of core organic demand environment with your customers?

但我主要的問題，先從這個釐清開始：你能否多談談你們在與客戶對話中看到的需求展望？每件出貨重量（weight per shipment）似乎有點往相反方向走。我們是否看到更多棧板（pallets）？或者你們看到的是——在與客戶相關的核心有機需求環境方面，你們到底看到了什麼？

Sure, Fadi. This is Ali. I'll start with the revenue per shipment trend and then pass it to Mario to speak about the customer demand outlook. From a revenue per shipment standpoint, as I noted, that can bounce around from quarter-to-quarter. And specifically for Q1 for us, we did see a lot of progress with some of our mix initiatives around local growth, around premium services which, again, those do come at a slightly lower weight per shipment profile but very accretive to our margins.

當然可以，Fadi。我是 Ali。我先談每件出貨收入的趨勢，然後再交給 Mario 說明客戶需求展望。就每件出貨收入而言，如我所提到的，它可能會在不同季度之間上下波動。而就我們第一季的情況來看，我們在一些組合策略上取得了很大進展，包括本地成長、以及高端服務；同樣地，這些服務的每件出貨重量略低，但對我們的利潤率具有很強的增益效果。

And that's what drove that strong margin outperformance we had here in the first quarter. Now I think what's been encouraging for us is we've started to see that pricing trend accelerate as we move through the first quarter, and that acceleration continued here into the second quarter from an underlying yield standpoint. At the same time, we're also seeing that weight per shipment trend normalize as well on a year-over-year basis. So that acceleration that we're seeing in yield combined with that normalization on a year-over-year basis and weight per shipment ultimately, that's what's driving that positive outlook on revenue per shipment accelerating here into the second quarter, and that's consistent with what we've seen here in the month of April as well.

而這正是我們在第一季實現強勁利潤率超預期的原因。我認為令人鼓舞的是，隨著第一季推進，我們開始看到定價趨勢加速，而從基本單價（yield）的角度來看，這種加速也延續到了第二季。同時，我們也看到每件出貨重量的趨勢在年對年基礎上逐步正常化。因此，我們看到的單價加速，再加上年對年基礎上每件出貨重量的正常化，最終共同推動了每件出貨收入在第二季加速的正面展望，而這也與我們在四月份看到的情況一致。

And Fadi, when you look at the overall the demand outlook, we are hearing more optimism from customers. As you know, every quarter, we do a survey with our top customers, and we ask them what are you expecting for the back half of the year, not so beyond at the end of the -- or beginning of the second quarter here? And we are hearing more optimism where double the number of respondents that expect -- that now we expect an acceleration into the back half of the year relative to where they were in the first half of the year, and there were nearly no customers that expect a deceleration in the back half of the year.

Fadi，談到整體需求展望，我們從客戶那裡聽到更多樂觀情緒。如你所知，每一季我們都會對我們的主要客戶做調查，詢問他們對下半年的預期是什麼——也就是在這裡第二季初的時間點往後看。我們聽到更多樂觀的聲音：預期下半年會加速的受訪者數量，是相較於他們對上半年的看法的兩倍；而且幾乎沒有客戶預期下半年會放緩。

We haven't seen those kind of survey results going back to 2021, which is very encouraging when we see what we're hearing from the customers. Now if I break it down, retail has been positive and consistently, you would see good demand on the retail side. On the industrial side, we're hearing a lot of the optimism, but we haven't seen it yet materialized in big swings. As you know, Fadi, if you go back since we've in an industrial recession now for three years and a freight recession in three years, volumes in the industrial economy are down in the mid-teens plus.

我們回溯到 2021 年以來，還沒看過這樣的調查結果；因此，從客戶回饋來看非常令人鼓舞。如果我再拆開來看，零售端一直是正向且穩定的，你會在零售端看到不錯的需求。在工業端，我們聽到很多樂觀情緒，但目前還沒有看到它以大幅波動的方式具體反映出來。如你所知，Fadi，若回顧過去，我們已經處於工業衰退三年、貨運衰退三年；工業經濟的量在十幾個百分點以上的幅度下滑。

And what we're seeing now with ISM being over 50 for three months to kick off the year is very encouraging. In terms of subsectors of the industrial economy, electrical continues to be good. Equipment for ag is doing well. Chemicals is doing well. And just recently here in the month of April, we are seeing also showing some legs as well.

而我們現在看到 ISM 在年初連續三個月高於 50，這非常令人鼓舞。就工業經濟的次產業而言，電氣相關仍然表現良好。農業設備表現不錯。化工表現良好。而就在最近的四月份，我們也看到（某些領域）開始顯現延續性。

So as we continue to see that ISM, which definitely takes, call it, three to six months in the trial license high volumes, if that materializes as we have to do into the back half, with the customer expectations, this could be a great setup in terms of seeing more of that demand coming down from the industrial side of the economy as well. So again, early innings, but we're hearing much more optimism than we did a quarter or two ago.

因此，隨著我們持續看到 ISM 的表現——而這通常需要大約三到六個月才會傳導到貨運量——如果它如我們所預期在下半年具體實現，再結合客戶的預期，這可能會形成非常好的局面：我們也可能看到更多來自工業端的需求回升。所以再說一次，現在還在早期階段，但我們聽到的樂觀程度，明顯高於一季或兩季之前。

Jonathan Chappell, Evercore ISI.

Jonathan Chappell，Evercore ISI。

Mario, I want to touch on the productivity comment again and one of your previous answers about the potential for that to compound. 4% is obviously significantly greater than your long-term target. So can you help us understand how you did so much better in 1Q from a productivity perspective? And is there a bit of, I don't know, front-loading, so to speak, that compounding at such a level may be just too high of a bar at least for the remainder of '26 as we think about the margin progression from here?

Mario，我想再回到你對生產力的評論，以及你先前一個回答中提到其可能持續累積的部分。4% 顯然大幅高於你們的長期目標。所以你能否幫我們理解，為什麼你們在第一季在生產力方面能做得這麼好？以及是否存在某種程度的、我不知道、所謂「前置」效應——也就是說，至少就 2026 年剩餘期間而言，若要以這樣的水準持續累積，門檻可能過高；當我們從這裡思考利潤率的後續進展時，是否應該這樣看？

Well, overall, in the quarter, Jon, we did launch our new AI tool for P&D and optimization and it's now rolled out to have our network. And we're seeing measurable results out of the new AI solution with fewer miles, more stops per hour in our P&D environment. Now we already have implemented a number of solutions for line haul if you recall, middle of last year, end of Q2 heading into Q3 as well. And we are still seeing the wraparound effect of these improvements.

嗯，整體而言，在本季度，Jon，我們確實推出了用於P&D與最佳化的新AI工具，現在已在我們整個網路中全面部署。而且我們在P&D作業環境中看到這套新AI解決方案帶來可量化的成果：行駛里程更少、每小時停靠點更多。另外，如你所記得的，我們在幹線運輸（line haul）方面也已經實施了多項解決方案，大約是在去年年中、第二季末進入第三季時。而我們仍持續看到這些改善所帶來的延伸效應。

We've also launched updated models for our dock efficiency and we'll continue to compel those as we launch more and more changes to it. Now as you know, though, technology, Jonathan, is not -- it's not linear path. I mean there's always you launch something, you get a lot of feedback from the field of how to make it better and then you keep on improving those. And if you look at AI learns from the actual outcome. So for every AI algorithm that we have, we typically compete the standard better of how the outputs are comparing to what the ideal output would look like, and we keep on refining them over time, over time as well.

我們也推出了更新的碼頭效率模型，並且會在推出越來越多變更的同時，持續推動與強化這些模型。不過如你所知，Jonathan，科技——它不是一條線性的路徑。我的意思是，你總會先推出某個東西，然後從現場得到大量回饋，了解如何把它做得更好，接著就持續改進。而如果你看AI，它會從實際結果中學習。因此，對於我們的每一個AI演算法，我們通常都會拿一個標準去比較其輸出與理想輸出之間的差距，並且隨著時間不斷、持續地精煉它們。

Now all of these tools had very strong execution in the field by our operators has contributed to that 4% productivity pick up in the first quarter. But we'll see how the year progresses from here. I mean we do expect to be above our target of 1.5% for the full year. And what you see here in the first quarter supports pretty strong compounding as well. But we're taking the conservative view on this, and we will see kind of where this goes from here. But AI is getting smarter.

現在，所有這些工具在現場由我們的營運團隊強力執行，促成了第一季生產力提升4%。但我們會觀察今年接下來的進展。我的意思是，我們確實預期全年會高於1.5%的目標。而你在第一季看到的表現，也支持相當強的複利式累積效果。但我們對此採取保守看法，接下來會看看它會如何發展。不過AI正變得更聰明。

Jordan Alliger, Goldman Sachs.

Jordan Alliger，高盛。

Just sort of curious, can you given sort of some of your comments and the hopefully improved trend on the tonnage, can you talk to your excess terminal capacity, have you seen changes in that? I think previously you were somewhere in the 30% range. Has that started to move lower? And then sort of tied into that, in terms of thinking about a sub-80% operating ratio over time, what would be required in terms of excess terminal capacity to sort of get below that level?

我有點好奇，基於你的一些評論以及（希望）噸位趨勢的改善，你能談談你們的終端場站（terminal）閒置產能嗎？你們有看到這方面的變化嗎？我記得先前你們大概在30%左右。那這個比例是否已開始下降？另外，與此相關的是，若從長期角度思考要把營運比率降到80%以下，需要在終端場站閒置產能方面達到什麼條件，才能把它降到那個水準以下？

Yes, you got it, Jordan. If you look at -- by the end of the first quarter, first starting with our network capacity, we had more than 30% excess door capacity, which is a sweet spot to be in the LTL carrier in a softer freight environment and expecting demand to inflect at some point and accelerate from here. So we feel great about where we are on that. And keep in mind, over the last three years, we added 15% more door capacity, but not all capacity is created equal because if you look at a sort of market where you were tight versus another market where you have a lot of capacity, that site market could cause a bottleneck in your network.

是的，你說得對，Jordan。如果你看——截至第一季末，先從我們的網路產能來看，我們有超過30%的閒置月台門（door）產能；在貨運較疲弱的環境下，對LTL承運商而言，這是一個很理想的區間，因為我們預期需求在某個時間點會出現拐點並從此加速。所以我們對目前的位置感到非常好。另外請記住，過去三年我們增加了15%的月台門產能，但並非所有產能都一樣，因為如果你看某個市場原本很吃緊、另一個市場卻有很多產能，那個吃緊的市場就可能在你的網路中造成瓶頸。

So when we've added this capacity with all in markets where historically, we were capacity constrained, think of in Atlanta, Georgia, I think in Texas, think Kansas, think Columbus, Ohio Gianapolis, Minneapolis, all of these are markets, Nashville. All of these are markets where historically, we did have a lot of capacity, and now we have fantastic, large breakbulk locations that will enable us to support our customers when that up cycle comes.

因此，我們新增的產能主要都放在歷史上產能受限的市場；例如喬治亞州亞特蘭大、德州、堪薩斯、俄亥俄州哥倫布、Gianapolis、明尼阿波利斯，還有納許維爾。這些都是我們過去確實受產能限制的市場，而現在我們擁有非常出色、規模很大的分撥中心（breakbulk）據點，當景氣上行週期到來時，將能讓我們支援客戶。

In terms of other forms of capacity, one is around the trailer side, trailers or the currency by which we move freight on our network. And as I mentioned earlier, we've added more than 20,000 new regular trailers to our fleet over the last three years. So all these investments have had an impact on our depreciation expense being up. And despite that, we have been improving more automatically over that period of time. but all of these would enable us to support our customers what that demand kind of comes there.

就其他形式的產能而言，其中一項是拖車端；拖車是我們在網路上移動貨物的「通貨」。如我先前提到的，過去三年我們在車隊中新增了超過20,000台新的標準拖車。因此，所有這些投資都使我們的折舊費用上升。儘管如此，在那段期間我們仍持續改善（更自動化）運作；而這些投入都將使我們在需求回升時能夠支援客戶。

In terms of getting to an operating -- full year operating ratio into the 70s, all of the things that we are doing with enable us to get there. But the biggest contributor is about yield and yield performance. Today, we have a double-digit pricing opportunity for us to catch up with our best in class tier, and that comes through the three levers that Carl mentioned earlier on, where the first one is that continuous improvement in service. But if you look at this quarter, our claims ratio was sub 0.2%, and it's going to take us a bit of time for us to eventually become number one. That's the goal.

至於要把全年營運比率降到70多（進入70區間），我們正在做的所有事情都能幫助我們達成。但最大的貢獻來源在於收益率（yield）與收益率表現。目前，我們仍有雙位數的定價機會，讓我們追上同業中最佳等級的水準；這會透過Carl先前提到的三個槓桿來實現，其中第一個是服務的持續改善。不過如果你看本季，我們的理賠比率低於0.2%，而要最終成為第一名還需要一些時間。那是目標。

But overall, it's going to enable us to get more price and more premium freight from our customers. The second lever is around premium services. We have launched a dozen or so incremental services that we are offering our customers. And today, when we started our plan, 9% to 10% of our revenue came from accessorial revenue. We're up to 12% to 13%, and our goal is to get to 15% as we continue to compound those.

但整體而言，這將使我們能從客戶那裡取得更高的價格與更多高端貨量（premium freight）。第二個槓桿是高附加價值服務（premium services）。我們已推出約十多項增量服務提供給客戶。而在我們啟動計畫時，9%到10%的營收來自附加費收入（accessorial revenue）。目前已提升到12%到13%，而我們的目標是在持續累積之下達到15%。

And the third component is growing business with that small- to medium-sized customers. So that alone gives us a massive runway even without a macro recovery for us to get into the 70s from an OR perspective. Now you start seeing demand in flat and we have the capacity to handle it and be able to support our customers. I mean, we see very strong incremental margins that come through that. Here in the first quarter, our incremental margins were 58%.

第三個組成部分是擴大與中小型客戶的業務。因此，單就這一點，即使沒有宏觀復甦，我們在營運比率（OR）的角度也有很長的跑道，能從目前水準進入70多。當你開始看到需求走平或回升，而我們也有能力承接並支援客戶時，我的意思是，我們會看到非常強的增量利潤率隨之而來。在第一季，我們的增量利潤率是58%。

Stephanie Moore, Jefferies.

Stephanie Moore，Jefferies。

Mario, I think in the past, you've talked about total volume declines in this freight down cycle to the tune of maybe 15%, 20%. You can correct me on that. But as you think about what you view as XPO's ability to recover, if not the majority or even more so of that volume compression that we've seen over the course of the last several years. And then at the same point, can you talk about labor capacity? I think we talked a lot about door capacity, but where your labor capacity stands today? And then what would be required as you start to look at bridging that volume gap for the last couple of years?

Mario，我想過去你曾談到在這一輪貨運下行週期中，總量下滑大概是15%、20%左右。你可以糾正我。但當你思考你所認為XPO的復甦能力——是否能收復我們在過去幾年看到的那段貨量壓縮中的大部分，甚至更多——同時，你能談談勞動力產能嗎？我想我們談了很多月台門產能，但你們目前的勞動力產能狀況如何？以及當你開始思考如何彌補過去幾年的貨量缺口時，需要做哪些事情？

Thanks, Stephanie. If you look at industry volumes, as you said, based on the cyclical factors we've seen here with the ISM sub-50 through end of last year for the better part of three years or we call it three-year freight recession, we have seen the industry volumes be down in that mid-teens plus, somewhere in the 16 or so points over that period of time. Now keep in mind, two-thirds of our customers are industrial customers. So they have been impacted meaningfully by that freight slowdown over the last three years. Now as we mentioned earlier, we've seen that pickup in overall industrial demand.

謝謝，Stephanie。如果你看產業貨量，如你所說，基於我們在此看到的週期性因素——ISM在50以下一直到去年底，持續了將近三年，或我們稱之為「三年貨運衰退」——我們看到產業貨量在那段期間下滑到十幾個百分點以上，大約下滑了16個點左右。另外請記住，我們有三分之二的客戶是工業客戶。因此，他們在過去三年這段貨運放緩中受到顯著影響。而如我們先前提到的，我們已看到整體工業需求出現回升。

So this could be the early innings of an industrial recovery here. Now in terms of our ability to handle incremental volume, the current excess door capacity we have will comfortably get us into that plus 15% more freight into our network to be able to handle that inflection point and potentially more given that we have added a lot of that incremental capacity in markets where historically we were capacity constrained.

因此，這可能是工業復甦的早期階段。就我們處理增量貨量的能力而言，目前我們擁有的多餘裝卸門產能，將可讓我們從容應對進入我們網路的貨運量再增加15%，以便處理那個拐點，甚至可能更多，因為我們在過去歷來產能受限的市場中，已新增了大量的增量產能。

Now looking at the labor side, usually, we want to make sure that our headcount is commensurate with what we are seeing in the volume environment and have enough buffers because in LTL, you can imagine if you have, on average, each one of your drivers or dock workers are working 40 hours a week, and they work now 45 hours a week. That alone is giving you double-digit more labor capacity in terms of hours and shifts that you can deploy. But if we continue to see that sustained demand environment lead to higher volumes and a full eventual full recovery, we would need to add headcount, and we can leverage our driver training schools where today, we can operate these in 130 terminals.

再看勞動力方面，通常我們希望確保人力編制與我們在貨量環境中所看到的情況相匹配，並保留足夠的緩衝，因為在LTL（零擔）業務中，你可以想像，如果平均而言，你的每位司機或碼頭作業員每週工作40小時，而現在改為每週45小時。僅此一項，就能在可部署的工時與班次方面，帶來兩位數百分比的額外勞動力產能。但如果我們持續看到這種持續的需求環境帶動更高的貨量，並最終全面復甦，我們就需要增加人手；而我們可以運用司機培訓學校的資源，目前我們可在130個場站營運這些培訓計畫。

And Stephanie, it's a great program where we get some of our dock leads or dock workers who are doing a fantastic job, and we invest in them where we train them to get their CDL license, then join our ranks and then have great careers with us over the years to come as they become a professional driver.

而且，Stephanie，這是一個很棒的計畫：我們會挑選一些表現非常出色的碼頭領班或碼頭作業員，對他們進行投資，培訓他們取得CDL商業駕照，之後加入我們的行列，並在未來多年與我們一起擁有很好的職涯發展，成為專業司機。

We also, if you look over the last few years, we have had a meaningful decline in turnover rate of drivers and dock workers. I mean the whole leadership team has spent a lot of time in the field and listening to our employees and making sure that we are taking action on their feedback, and that has led over time with lower turnover as well of both drivers and dock workers. So first, you've got to hire or replenish your turnover and then hire for growth. And we feel great about our ability to do that given where we are today.

另外，如果你回顧過去幾年，我們的司機與碼頭作業員離職率已顯著下降。我的意思是，整個管理團隊花了很多時間在第一線，傾聽員工的聲音，並確保我們會針對他們的回饋採取行動；隨著時間推進，這也帶來了司機與碼頭作業員離職率的降低。所以首先，你必須先招募或補足因離職而流失的人力，接著再為成長而招募。以我們目前的狀況而言，我們對自身做到這一點的能力非常有信心。

Chris Wetherbee, Wells Fargo.

Chris Wetherbee，富國銀行。

I guess a couple of questions here. So as we think about the outlook for the back half of the year, you noted the customer sentiment improvement. And I guess I wanted to think about what productivity might look like in the context of improving volumes. So you guys have done a wonderful job through what's been a pretty challenging freight environment. But we start to see tonnage grow and shipments grow more consistently, what do you think the productivity opportunity is relative to that 1.5 sort of longer-term target? Can it be sort of that 4% sustainable? Just want to get a sense of maybe how that plays out.

我想這裡有幾個問題。當我們思考下半年展望時，你提到客戶情緒有所改善。我想從貨量改善的脈絡來看，想了解生產力可能會是什麼樣子。你們在相當具挑戰的貨運環境中做得非常出色。但如果我們開始看到噸位與出貨量更持續地成長，你認為相對於1.5（點）這個較長期目標，生產力的機會會是什麼？它能否達到大約4%且可持續？只是想了解一下這可能會如何演變。

Sure, Chris. This is Ali. So from a productivity standpoint, as volumes start to improve, we would expect productivity to only accelerate. Historically, when we've been in periods where we've been in a volume growth environment. So for example, if you go back to the four quarters after Yellow went bankrupt, we were growing volumes in that, call it, low to mid-single-digit range for a period of four quarters after that.

當然，Chris。我是Ali。就生產力而言，隨著貨量開始改善，我們預期生產力只會加速提升。從歷史來看，當我們處於貨量成長的環境時就是如此。例如，如果你回到Yellow破產之後的四個季度，我們在那段期間的貨量成長大約是低到中個位數百分比，持續了四個季度。

We were improving productivity in that mid-single-digit range on a consistent basis through that period. So ultimately, as volumes start to improve, we do think there's more upside to that 1.5 points of productivity. Now as Mario noted, here in the first quarter, we were able to drive 4 points of productivity in a flat volume environment. So clearly, we have a lot of opportunity to drive upside just through our own initiatives even without a volume improving. But I do think the volume upside here gives us more confidence in delivering upside to that 1.5 points of productivity that's in our outlook for the year.

在那段期間，我們的生產力也以中個位數百分比的幅度持續改善。因此，最終來看，隨著貨量開始改善，我們確實認為相較於1.5點的生產力提升，還有更多上行空間。如Mario所提到，在第一季，即使貨量持平，我們仍能推動4點的生產力提升。所以很明顯，即便貨量沒有改善，僅透過我們自身的各項措施，也有很大的上行機會。但我確實認為，貨量的上行讓我們更有信心，能夠實現我們今年展望中所包含的那1.5點生產力提升的上行空間。

And just a quick clarification. As you guys think about a point of productivity, we're still thinking about somewhere in that like $20 million, $25 million range, that's roughly the way to be thinking about it on a gross basis?

再快速釐清一下。當你們談到1點生產力時，我們仍然可以把它理解為大約2,000萬到2,500萬美元的區間，這大致是以毛額口徑來看嗎？

Each point of productivity, Chris, is somewhere in that $25 million to $30 million of incremental EBITDA.

Chris，每1點生產力大約相當於2,500萬到3,000萬美元的增量EBITDA。

Tom Wadewitz, UBS.

Tom Wadewitz，瑞銀。

So I wanted to ask you a little bit more about the kind of what's in your assumptions for 2Q and what your customer feedback points to. It seems like things aren't off to the races, but they're improving. And I think that's -- I think you talked about industrial, that's true. So in terms of what you bake into your commentary on 2Q, is that just essentially normal seasonality in your kind of tonnage and shipments per day comments? And then does the customer feedback maybe lead you to think that there's a good chance that later in 2Q or second half, you actually see the market do better than normal seasonality and show some acceleration?

我想再多問一點關於你們對第二季（2Q）的假設內容，以及客戶回饋所指向的方向。看起來情況還沒有全面起飛，但正在改善。而我認為這——我想你提到工業端，確實如此。所以就你們在第二季評論中所納入的假設而言，那基本上只是你們在「噸位」與「每日出貨量」評論中所反映的正常季節性嗎？另外，客戶回饋是否讓你們認為，在第二季後段或下半年，市場其實有很大機會表現優於正常季節性，並出現一些加速？

So in terms of the tonnage outlook, we are just rolling forward normal seasonality. So if you roll forward what we saw here in April into May and June, that would put full quarter tonnage flattish on a year-over-year basis. Now as you noted, as the demand environment starts to improve and we see this continuation of above seasonal volume performance, there certainly could be upside to that outlook. But I think we think the more appropriate way to think about it is just rolling forward normal seasonality through the rest of the quarter here. Our expectation also is, as Mario noted, not only is that OR improvement is going to accelerate here on a year-over-year basis in Q2 versus Q1, but that we'll also see earnings growth or EPS growth accelerate on a year-over-year basis in Q2 versus Q1 as well.

就噸位展望而言，我們只是把正常季節性往前推進。因此，如果把我們在4月看到的情況延伸到5月與6月，那麼整個季度的噸位在年對年基礎上大致持平。如你所提到的，隨著需求環境開始改善，且我們看到高於季節性的貨量表現延續，該展望當然可能有上行空間。但我認為，更合適的思考方式是：在本季度剩餘時間內，先按正常季節性往前推進。另外，我們的預期是，如Mario所說，不僅營運比率（OR）的改善在第二季相較第一季將在年對年基礎上加速，我們也將看到獲利成長或每股盈餘（EPS）成長在第二季相較第一季同樣在年對年基礎上加速。

Okay. But -- so we should look at that as upside. And I guess, Mario's comments on the survey given the kind of best results in terms of second half look you've seen in a number of years, that would be kind of upside to the way you're looking at things.

好的。但是——所以我們應該把那視為上行空間。我想，Mario對調查的評論提到，就下半年的展望而言，這是你們多年來看到的最佳結果之一；那將會是你們目前看法的上行因素。

I think that's a fair way of thinking about it.

我認為這樣理解是合理的。

Brian Ossenbeck, JPMorgan.

Brian Ossenbeck，摩根大通。

I wanted to see, Mario, maybe if you can talk about the context around the accelerating price and yields. You mentioned the gap to core pricing, but obviously rolling out some of the better mix in accessorials and new markets. So is there any way to maybe put some context around the relative change or at least the rate of change? And what's driving that from each of those different buckets? And then I guess relatedly, you talked a little bit about fuel impact in the press release and a big topic for LTL, and it's hard to narrow down.

Mario，我想請你談談價格與收益率加速上升的背景脈絡。你提到與核心定價之間的差距，但顯然也在逐步反映更好的附加費（accessorials）組合以及新市場的貢獻。所以，有沒有辦法提供一些關於相對變化、或至少變化速度的背景說明？以及在這些不同的構成項目中，各自是由什麼在驅動？另外我想相關地，你在新聞稿中也稍微談到燃油影響，這是LTL的一個重要議題，而且很難精準拆解。

But it looks like there was a bit of a net benefit this quarter. Just wanted to see how you're thinking about that and how we should be modeling that into second quarter as well given what we know now with energy prices?

但看起來本季有一些淨受益。想請教你們如何看待這點，以及考量我們目前對能源價格的了解，我們在建立第二季模型時也應如何納入？

You got it right. So first, I'll start with the high-level levers for pricing that I mentioned earlier on. So if you look at the size of the opportunity for us over the years to come, it's a double-digit runway for us to catch up with our best in last year on the pricing dynamic. Now if you break it down in terms of where that falls through, the lion's share of that, about two-thirds comes from an improving service product, where we are able to get more premium freight from our customers and higher quality freight. And we expect that to cause us to outperform typical yield trends in the industry by about 1 point per year on top of what we're seeing in the industry.

你說得沒錯。首先，我先從我先前提到的定價高層槓桿談起。如果你看我們未來幾年的機會規模，從定價動能來看，我們有一段雙位數的成長跑道，可以追上我們去年最佳表現。若進一步拆解其來源，其中最大宗、約三分之二，來自服務產品的改善，使我們能從客戶那裡取得更多高價位貨運（premium freight）以及更高品質的貨量。我們預期這將使我們在產業典型的收益率（yield）趨勢之上，每年額外領先約1個百分點。

The second lever, the cadence is still unchanged for us, which is on the premium services side. We do expect the growth in these segments of business. We have another, call it, 3 points of opportunity ahead of us just in that category alone. And we also expect to be at roughly a run rate of 1 point per year on incremental above-market pricing, driven by us growing our market share in those three services. And Brian, just to kind of give you an example, a lot of them, if you think of the must arrive by date or a retail sold rollout or many of these services today we are under plus in terms of our market share of the overall industry versus how much market share we have in each one of those premium services.

第二個槓桿是高價值服務（premium services）端，我們的推進節奏仍維持不變。我們確實預期這些業務區隔會成長。僅在這一類別中，我們前方還有大約3個百分點的機會空間。此外，我們也預期在這三項服務的市占率提升帶動下，每年可維持約1個百分點的增量「高於市場」定價（above-market pricing）水準。Brian，舉例來說，很多服務如果你想到「必須在某日期前送達」或零售上架（rollout）等，今天我們在整體產業的市占率，相較於我們在各項高價值服務中的市占率，其實仍偏低。

Anywhere, it's been the low to mid-single-digit type market share contributions in those and we expect that to at least get to our overall market share of the industry, which is about 10% and kind of continue to grow from there, given the improvements in our service product. And then finally, on the local account side, we are roughly halfway through when we started our plan, we were at 20% of total were local accounts and our goal to get to 30.

在這些服務中，我們的市占貢獻一直大約是低到中個位數百分比，我們預期至少會提升到我們在整體產業的市占率水準（約10%），並在服務產品改善的帶動下，從那裡持續成長。最後，在本地帳戶（local account）方面，我們大約已走完計畫的一半；當初啟動計畫時，本地帳戶占總量約20%，我們的目標是提升到30%。

And our local sales team has been doing a phenomenal chaining with customers locally and onboarding more of that business. Just to give you an example, in the first quarter alone, we onboarded more than 2,600 new customers in that channel, which was an acceleration from where we were in the last year on a quarterly cadence basis as well. And that's roughly around 0.5 point of yield per year we expect to get.

我們的本地銷售團隊在與在地客戶的連結與拓展、以及導入更多此類業務方面表現非常出色。舉例來說，僅第一季我們就在該通路導入超過2,600位新客戶，這也比去年以季度節奏來看有所加速。我們預期這大約可帶來每年0.5個百分點的收益率（yield）提升。

So the best way to think about it is if you look at a multiyear runway where if the market -- as you know, in LTL, if the market is soft, industry yield could be up low single digits, and we expect to outperform that by 2 to 3 points. If the market is normalized, it would be -- our industry pricing will be in that mid-single-digit range, and we expect to outperform that to all the dynamics I mentioned by 2 to 3 points.

因此，最好的理解方式是：從多年期跑道來看——如你所知，在LTL（零擔）市場若偏疲弱，產業收益率可能僅小幅上升（低個位數），而我們預期可比產業多出2到3個百分點。若市場回到常態，產業定價大概會落在中個位數區間，而基於我提到的各項動能，我們也預期能再領先2到3個百分點。

And ultimately, if we start seeing an inflection in the macro, where capacity is down and you start seeing the demand come up, then obviously, industry pricing will be in the mid- to high single digits, and we expect to outperform that. So that's how we think about it from a cadence perspective. And we're seeing these dynamics here in the near term, as you would see what we deliver in Q2, Q3 and Q4.

最終，如果我們開始看到總體環境出現拐點、運能下降且需求回升，那麼產業定價顯然會落在中到高個位數，而我們預期仍能跑贏。這就是我們從節奏角度的看法。而在近期，你也會從我們在Q2、Q3與Q4的交付表現中看到這些動能。

And I'll turn it over to Ali to discuss the fuel side.

接下來我把時間交給Ali，請他談燃油面。

And Brian, on fuel specifically, obviously, there's been a lot of volatility in oil prices here more recently. So ultimately, we're going to see how diesel prices trend through the rest of the quarter. We would expect our fuel revenue here to be up on a year-over-year basis in the second quarter. Just one thing I'd point out is naturally as fuel prices go up, our revenue increases, but so does our cost to procure that fuel as well. I think ultimately, if you zoom out, customers see our prices inclusive of fuel, all LTL carriers have very similar fuel surcharge structures in place.

Brian，針對燃油部分，顯然近期油價波動很大。因此，最終我們會觀察柴油價格在本季剩餘時間的走勢。我們預期第二季的燃油相關營收將較去年同期成長。我想指出的一點是，燃油價格上升時，我們的營收自然會增加，但我們採購燃油的成本也會同步上升。從更宏觀的角度看，客戶看到的是包含燃油在內的總價格，而所有LTL承運商的燃油附加費（fuel surcharge）架構其實都非常相近。

And when you're thinking about our second quarter outlook specifically, and our ability to outperform seasonality, ultimately, that's being driven by our strong operational execution, it is being driven by that above-market pricing growth we're delivering, our profitable market share gains as well as some of the ramping momentum that we're seeing on the productivity side as well.

而在思考我們第二季展望、以及我們超越季節性的能力時，最終驅動因素來自我們強勁的營運執行力、我們正在交付的高於市場的定價成長、我們具獲利性的市占率提升，以及我們在生產力端所看到的一些加速爬坡動能。

Jason Seidl, TD Cowen.

TD Cowen 的 Jason Seidl。

Mario team, nice quarter. There's been a big spike in truckload spot and contract renewal rates. Wanted to maybe walk through any potential upside this may provide to both your tonnage and also your pricing outlook as we move throughout the rest of 2Q and the rest of '26?

Mario 團隊，本季表現不錯。整車（truckload）即期與合約續約費率大幅上升。想請你們說明一下，這可能為你們的貨量（tonnage）以及定價展望帶來哪些潛在上行空間，特別是接下來2Q剩餘時間以及2026年其餘期間？

Well, Jason, when you look at truckload versus NPL, as we've said in the past, we expect that with the lower truckload rates through the trough of the truckload cycle, we have seen roughly around 2 to 3 points, call it, in that low to mid-single digit industry, LTL tonnage has moved from LTL to truckload. And we believe that kind of falls in two categories. One would be heavy shipments where when the truckload rates came down to the $2 mark with fuel, what you have seen is effectively the breakeven point of an LTL shipment to move over to truckload come down to about 15,000 pounds or so.

Jason，當你看整車（truckload）相對於NPL（非資產型物流）時，如同我們過去所說，在整車景氣循環谷底期間、整車費率較低的情況下，我們看到在產業低到中個位數的背景中，大約有2到3個百分點的LTL貨量從LTL轉移到整車。我們認為這大致可分為兩類。第一類是重貨出貨：當整車費率（含燃油）降到每英里約2美元左右時，你會看到LTL貨件轉為整車的損益兩平點下移到約15,000磅左右。

And we estimate that to be somewhat in the 0.5 point to 1 point worth of industry volume that had gravitated or went over to the truckload industry. The second category is usually large customers have PMS systems that can optimize based on multiple LTL shipments, if the rate of truckload is now more desirable where the shipments can still make service, and that's very important, then they would convert that over to truckload as well.

我們估計這大約相當於產業量的0.5到1個百分點，已經偏向或轉移到整車市場。第二類通常是大型客戶會有PMS系統，能基於多筆LTL貨件進行最佳化；如果此時整車費率更具吸引力，且貨件仍能符合服務水準（這點非常重要），他們也會把這些貨件轉成整車。

And we estimate that on a combined basis both of these to be again 2 to 3 points. Now as you point out, with the truckload capacity that has gone out of the market and with both spot rates going up, although contractual rates are starting to go up, but they haven't seen that mega increase here. But as this continues to go up, you're going to see more of that conversion of those truckload shipments come back to LTL. Now if we see that inflection happen accelerate in the back half of the year, obviously, you will see that follow 3 points come back to the LTL sector. faster than that, but we'll see how that kind of materialize.

我們估計這兩類合計仍約為2到3個百分點。如你所指出，隨著整車運能退出市場、即期費率上升，雖然合約費率也開始上升，但尚未出現非常劇烈的上漲。但若這種上升趨勢持續，你會看到更多原本轉去整車的貨件回流到LTL。如果下半年這個拐點加速發生，顯然你會看到那約3個百分點更快回到LTL領域；是否會更快，我們還要看實際如何發展。

And one key point there, Jason, as well is that we have, with the in-sourcing of third-party linehaul, and keep in mind, we've been doing this for now more than three years, we have been able to reduce our exposure to truckload rates meaningfully. And what that means is those truckload rates go up, our cost structure will stay in check because we are using our own drivers and equipment to move that freight in the line haul network. So that's something we're excited about here in the next up cycle because that's going to give us much higher incremental margins by keeping that cost category check.

另外一個關鍵點，Jason，是我們透過將第三方幹線運輸（linehaul）內製化——請記得，我們已經做了超過三年——已能大幅降低對整車費率的曝險。這代表當整車費率上升時，我們的成本結構仍能受到控制，因為我們在幹線網路中使用自有司機與設備來運送貨物。因此，我們對下一個上行循環感到很振奮，因為透過把這項成本類別控制住，將能帶來更高的增量利潤率。

Yes, you guys have clearly been putting yourself in a better position for the TL up cycle. But just so I'm clear that any move of those, call it, 2 to 3 points back towards the LTL sector is upside to the guidance that you're giving us?

是的，你們顯然一直在讓自己處於更有利的位置，以迎接 TL 上行週期。但我想確認一下：如果那些（姑且稱之為）2 到 3 個點回流到 LTL 領域，這會是你們目前給我們的指引的上行空間嗎？

That's correct. So if we see those -- that's going to come back to NPL, obviously us and all the carriers will benefit from that type of movement. It's going to put more pressure on the overall NPL capacity, industry capacity as well, which over time will lead to higher industry pricing, too.

沒錯。所以如果我們看到那些——那顯然會回到 NPL，我們以及所有承運商都會從這種轉移中受益。這也會對整體 NPL 產能、以及行業產能帶來更大壓力，而隨著時間推移，也會導致行業定價走高。

Ari Rosa, Citigroup.

Ari Rosa，花旗集團。

So Mario, I wanted to ask to get your thoughts on competitive dynamics across the industry. To what extent do you think competitors are also sitting on available capacity? And does that impede t's ability to take share, just kind of speak to the level of share gain that you expect to take especially as the cycle accelerates? And also to what extent maybe there's a tension between winning share and pushing yield, if you're seeing that or how you're thinking about kind of elasticity there?

所以 Mario，我想請教你對全行業競爭動態的看法。你認為競爭對手在多大程度上也握有可用產能？這是否會妨礙你們取得市占、也就是談談你們預期能取得的市占提升幅度，尤其是在週期加速之際？另外，在搶市占與推升收益率之間是否存在拉扯——如果你有看到的話，或你如何看待其中的彈性？

Yes. So Ari, first, if you look at overall industry capacity. If you look at three pandemics, if you look at 2019, or pre Yellow bankruptcy, when you look at where we are now on industry terminal counts, that is down roughly around, call it, in the high single-digit, low double-digit range in terms of service center count. And then if you look from a door's perspective, overall door count is roughly down about mid-single digits over that same period of time. So today, you have less capacity than you had either prepandemic or, call it, post-pandemic but pre Yellow bankrupt.

是的。所以 Ari，首先，如果你看整體行業產能。如果你看疫情前、看 2019 年，或看 Yellow 破產前，當你看我們現在的行業場站（terminal）數量，相較之下大約下降了——大概在高個位數到低雙位數的服務中心數量降幅。再從「門位（door）」的角度看，整體門位數在同一期間大約下降了中個位數。所以今天，你的產能比疫情前、或（可說是）疫情後但 Yellow 破產前都更少。

Now it's natural whenever demand has gone down over the last three years. With the industrial economy being slow, demand is down 15 points. So today, we have more than enough capacity to be as an industry to be able to handle 15% less volume. But as that starts to inflect what Jason asked earlier on about the blockload conversion back into LTM, coupled with the industrial economy at some point in this country that ISM continues to show those strong size of life, then obviously, you're going to start seeing demand go up and that you would have carriers that will have enough capacity compared to those volume increases.

現在，過去三年需求下滑，這是很自然的。工業經濟疲弱，需求下滑了 15 個點。所以今天，從行業角度來看，我們的產能綽綽有餘，足以處理少 15% 的貨量。但當這開始出現拐點——就像 Jason 先前問到的，整車（blockload）轉回 LTM 的轉換，再加上某個時間點美國工業經濟回升、ISM 持續顯示那些強勁的生命跡象——那麼顯然你會開始看到需求上升，而承運商相對於這些貨量增加，將會有足夠的產能。

Now we see we're in a great position because we have been planning for that for the last three to four years, adding door capacity, adding equipment and making sure that we are very well positioned to capitalize on that.

我們認為自己處於非常有利的位置，因為過去三到四年我們一直在為此規劃：增加門位產能、增加設備，並確保我們具備非常好的條件來把握這個機會。

And importantly, service our customers in the right way. That's what it's all about. They can get of the customer. So that's how we think about it. In terms of pricing versus volume, we don't think about it in those terms.

而且很重要的是，以正確的方式服務我們的客戶。這才是重點。他們可以獲得客戶的——所以我們是這樣思考的。至於定價與貨量，我們不會用那樣的框架來思考。

We think about it more that we have an opportunity to improve overall our yield performance given those three levers I mentioned earlier on. And this has multiple years of runway. But if you see the demand go up, you would see overall industry pricing go up. And we expect to outperform that by 2 to 3 points per year over the years to come as we continue to execute on our strategy and plan.

我們更多是認為，基於我先前提到的三個槓桿，我們有機會提升整體收益率表現。而且這有多年的成長跑道。但如果你看到需求上升，你會看到整體行業定價上升。我們預期，隨著我們持續執行策略與計畫，未來幾年我們每年都能比行業表現高出 2 到 3 個點。

Scott Schneeberger, Oppenheimer.

Scott Schneeberger，Oppenheimer。

It's Daniel on for Scott. Could you please discuss how you think about the top line outlook for Europe? How you anticipate performing versus the market? And secondly, how do you think about opportunities to improve the margin for that business?

我是代 Scott 提問的 Daniel。能否請你談談你如何看待歐洲的營收（top line）展望？你預期相對於市場的表現如何？第二，你如何看待提升該業務利潤率的機會？

Scott, it's Kyle. So the European business continues to perform really well in what's been a pretty soft macro for some time now. If you look at the first quarter, we grew organic revenue for the ninth consecutive quarter, and the team delivered another quarter of strong EBITDA growth in the outperforming seasonality. To your second question about thinking longer term on margins, we have a strong plan to improve profitability in Europe, both this year and next year. And we're really following a similar playbook that we've done in the US.

Scott，我是 Kyle。所以歐洲業務在宏觀環境相當疲弱、且已持續一段時間的情況下，仍然表現得非常好。如果你看第一季，我們有機營收連續第九個季度成長，團隊也在季節性表現優於預期的情況下，再交出一季強勁的 EBITDA 成長。針對你第二個關於長期利潤率的問題，我們有一個強而有力的計畫來提升歐洲的獲利能力，今年與明年都會推進。而我們基本上是在沿用我們在美國採用過的類似作戰手冊。

So we're going to take meaningful cost out there, and we're executing on that now and we'll continue through the rest of this year. We're also expanding the sales force, driving more premium services and growing in new verticals, some of what we see here. That includes growing in aerospace, luxury goods and thinking more about our warehouse offering. And I think lastly, as one of our bigger levers here in the US has been pricing, they're also looking at pricing, too, and they have a great service product. They want to make sure they get commentated for that service product. So we can really good about Europe and where the head in the future.

所以我們會在那邊實質性地降低成本，我們現在正在執行，並會持續到今年剩餘時間。我們也在擴大銷售團隊、推動更多高端服務，並在新的垂直領域成長，這些有些是我們在這裡看到的。這包括在航太、奢侈品領域成長，以及更多思考我們的倉儲產品。最後，我認為在美國我們較大的槓桿之一是定價，他們也同樣在看定價，而且他們有很好的服務產品。他們希望確保這個服務產品能獲得相稱的報酬。所以我們對歐洲以及未來的發展方向感到非常樂觀。

Ravi Shanker, Morgan Stanley.

Ravi Shanker，摩根士丹利。

Two, maybe the first one just on the cycle itself. There's a first up cycle that you guys are going in with a much lower reliance on PT. So how do you think about driver inflation, especially as the TL market kind of tightens up and maybe that pressure going to spill over to LTL as well? And maybe a bit of the off-the-wall kind of big picture question for you, Mario. I know XPO today is a product of the bigger XPO breakup, but do you feel the need to have a logistics operation within the company just given the traction some of the brokers are having and maybe the direction the industry is going down?

兩個問題，第一個可能是關於週期本身。這是你們進入的第一個上行週期，而你們對 PT 的依賴度低得多。那麼你們如何看待司機薪資通膨，尤其是當 TL 市場開始收緊、而那種壓力可能也會外溢到 LTL？另外一個有點跳脫框架、偏宏觀的大問題給你，Mario。我知道今天的 XPO 是由更大的 XPO 拆分而來，但考量到一些經紀商（brokers）取得的動能，以及行業可能前進的方向，你是否覺得公司內部需要有一個物流（logistics）營運？

I'll talk with the second half of the question. I mean, overall, with an LTL carrier, and we're focused on being in a LTL carrier. So we don't see a logistics offering adding value, the runway we have in terms of margin expansion and EBIT and op income growth over the next four, five, six years, there is tremendous ahead of us, Ravi. So we don't see a need to -- a combination of both top line growth as well as meaningful margin expansion is what will enable us to grow earnings meaningfully over the years to come. And there's another dynamic associated with that which is accelerating free cash flow generation.

我先回答問題的後半段。我的意思是，整體而言，作為一家 LTL 承運商，我們專注於成為一家 LTL 承運商。所以我們不認為提供物流服務能增加價值；就我們未來四、五、六年在利潤率擴張、EBIT 與營業利益成長方面的跑道而言，Ravi，我們前方有非常巨大的空間。因此我們不認為有需要——同時兼具營收成長與顯著的利潤率擴張，將使我們在未來幾年能夠大幅提升獲利。此外還有另一個相關動態，就是加速自由現金流的產生。

As I mentioned earlier, we expect to generate cumulative billions of dollars of free cash flow over the years to come, which will further compound that earnings growth, a combination of paying down debt and buying back shares is going to enable us to return the capital back to shareholders after we back on the business. So we see this as being the levers for long-term value creation for us here. We also do intend to, at some point, sell our European business. It's a question of not a matter of if and when we do that, it's going to be an acceleration of our capital allocation story. In terms of the lower reliance on PT, for drivers capacity that you mentioned.

如我先前提到的，我們預期未來幾年將累計產生數十億美元的自由現金流，這將進一步複利化那個獲利成長；透過償還債務與回購股票的組合，在我們對業務再投資之後，將使我們能把資本回饋給股東。所以我們認為，這些是我們長期價值創造的槓桿。我們也確實打算在某個時間點出售我們的歐洲業務。這不是會不會的問題，而是何時；當我們這麼做時，將會加速我們的資本配置故事。至於你提到對 PT 的依賴度較低、以及司機產能方面。

So typically, in LTL, obviously, our turnover of drivers is meaningfully lower than what you see in the truckload industry, and it has also improved a lot over years, given our focus on our front line working and listening to them and feedback loops and adding new trucks and taking care of the customers from a service perspective. So we have seen the turnover of our drivers and dock workers come down meaningfully and we -- as I mentioned earlier on, we have an ability to hire our -- train our own drivers in our driver schools. So in an up cycle, we would lean on that where we have the capacity to graduate up to 2,000 drivers per year where we actually paid their wages and we actually invested them and eventually they become a professional driver with us. So that's how we think about driver capacity and that upside of being able to add to it.

因此一般來說，在LTL（零擔）業務中，很明顯地，我們的司機流動率顯著低於你在整車運輸（truckload）產業看到的水準；而且多年來也改善了很多，這得益於我們專注於第一線同仁的工作、傾聽他們、建立回饋循環、添購新卡車，以及從服務角度照顧客戶。因此我們看到司機與碼頭作業人員的流動率明顯下降；並且——如我先前提到的——我們有能力在自有駕駛學校招募並培訓自己的司機。所以在景氣上行週期，我們會倚重這一點：我們每年最多可培訓畢業多達2,000名司機，我們會支付他們的薪資、投入資源培育他們，最終他們會成為我們的專業司機。這就是我們看待司機運能，以及能夠增加運能所帶來上行空間的方式。

Eric Morgan, Barclays.

Eric Morgan，Barclays（巴克萊）。

I wanted to follow up again on the 2Q OR comments in LTL. Mario, I think you mentioned a seven handle. It could be a possibility this quarter. So just wondering if you could expand a bit on what gets you there? Are you saying that if volume accelerates over the next couple of months, that's a possibility? Or can you do that with the flattish tonnage number you noted for the full quarter? And also just maybe how fuel plays in there. Does it become less likely if diesel prices come down a bit from here?

我想再追問一下關於LTL第二季OR（營運比率）的評論。Mario，我想你提到有機會看到「7字頭」。這一季可能有機會。所以想請你多談一點，什麼因素會讓你們達到那個水準？你的意思是，如果接下來幾個月的量加速成長，就有可能？還是說，即使如你提到的整季噸位數大致持平，也能做到？另外也想問燃油在其中扮演的角色。如果柴油價格從這裡開始回落一些，達成的可能性會不會變低？

Yes, you got it. So Eric, if you look at the quarter as a whole, as Ali mentioned earlier on, if you think about our tonnage for the quarter, and April for us was slightly better than seasonal trends when you compare it to March with also a pickup in weight per shipment as well. If you roll forward seasonality of April through the rest of the quarter, that implies that tonnage would be called it flattish for the quarter. So if we see that tonnage do better, then obviously, there's more upside here.

是的，你說得沒錯。Eric，如果你看整個季度，如Ali先前提到的，若以本季噸位來看，對我們而言4月相較3月略優於季節性趨勢，同時每票貨重也有所回升。如果把4月的季節性一路推算到本季剩餘時間，意味著本季噸位大致可說是持平。所以如果我們看到噸位表現更好，那很明顯就會有更多上行空間。

Now if you look at the first quarter, though, our first quarter was in line with our expectation on tonnage, yet we still outperformed on margin improvement and earnings growth in the quarter. So that is a path for us to get there even if tonnage stays flat through the quarter. Now going back to the other levers. One level is around yield, we are seeing a yield acceleration, as Kyle mentioned, here in the month of April, higher cost factor yields in the first quarter, our premium services continue to compound, our additions of new small to medium-sized customers continue to accelerate, so if we see yields accelerate beyond our expectations, that could be incremental to our margin improvement. And then when you look at it from a cost perspective, we are not expecting the same level of productivity improvement at Q1, although we are launching our solutions to more terminals.

不過如果你看第一季，我們第一季的噸位符合我們的預期，但我們在該季的利潤率改善與獲利成長仍然超出預期。因此，即使本季噸位一路持平，這仍是我們達成目標的一條路徑。再回到其他槓桿。其中一個層面是收益率（yield）：如Kyle提到的，我們在4月看到收益率加速；第一季較高成本因素的收益率、我們的高端服務持續累積成長、我們新增中小型客戶的速度持續加快，因此若收益率加速超出我們的預期，將可為利潤率改善帶來額外增量。再從成本角度來看，我們不預期會有與第一季同等幅度的生產力改善，儘管我們正在把解決方案推廣到更多營運站點（terminals）。

So in theory, we could get more. So we'll see how that kind of plays out through the rest of the quarter here. But we are just one month and then we have two more months to go. But no matter how you look at it, we do expect to outperform comfortably outperform the high end of the seasonal range of sequential improvement from Q1 to Q2. And generate a very strong margin improvement here in the second quarter with that path to the seven handle, but we'll see what the other has in store for us here for the next two months.

所以理論上，我們可能還能做得更多。因此我們會觀察接下來本季其餘時間的發展。但目前才過了一個月，還有兩個月要走。不過無論怎麼看，我們確實預期會明顯、且相當有把握地超越從第一季到第二季按季改善的季節性區間上緣。並在第二季帶來非常強勁的利潤率改善，朝向「7字頭」的OR邁進；但接下來兩個月還會發生什麼，我們就拭目以待。

We reached the end of our question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the floor back over to Chairman and CEO, Mario Harik. Please go ahead.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想把時間交回給董事長兼執行長Mario Harik。請開始。

Well, thank you, operator, and thank you, everyone, for joining us today. We're off to a great start of the year with accelerating momentum, and we expect another year of strong margin improvement and earnings growth. We look forward to updating you on our performance next quarter. With that, operator, end the call.

好的，謝謝主持人，也謝謝各位今天加入我們。今年我們開局非常好，動能持續加速，我們預期今年仍將是利潤率大幅改善與獲利成長強勁的一年。我們期待在下個季度向各位更新我們的表現。主持人，請結束電話會議。

Thank you. That does conclude today's teleconference and webcast. You may disconnect your line at this time, and have a wonderful day. We thank you for your participation today.

謝謝。今天的電話會議與網路直播到此結束。您現在可以掛斷電話，祝您有美好的一天。感謝您今天的參與。