XPO Inc (XPO) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Welcome to the XPO second quarter 2025 earnings conference call and Webcast. My name is Melissa, and I'll be your operator for today's call. (Operator Instructions)

    歡迎參加 XPO 2025 年第二季財報電話會議及網路廣播。我叫梅麗莎,今天我將擔任您的電話接線生。(操作員指示)

  • Please note that this conference is being recorded. Before the call begins, let me read a brief statement on behalf of the company regarding forward-looking statements and the use of non-GAAP financial measures. During this call, the company will be making certain forward-looking statements within the meaning of applicable securities laws, which, by their nature, involve a number of risks uncertainties and other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements.

    請注意,本次會議正在錄製。在電話會議開始之前,請允許我代表公司宣讀一份關於前瞻性陳述和非公認會計準則財務指標使用的簡短聲明。在本次電話會議中,本公司將根據適用證券法做出某些前瞻性陳述,這些陳述本質上涉及一些風險、不確定性和其他因素,可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中的預測有重大差異。

  • A discussion of factors that could cause actual results to differ materially is contained in the company's SEC filings as well as in its earnings release. The forward-looking statements in the company's earnings release or made on this call are made only as of today, and the company has no obligation to update any of these forward-looking statements, except by the extent required by law.

    該公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件以及收益報告中討論了可能導致實際結果出現重大差異的因素。公司收益報告或本次電話會議中所做的前瞻性陳述僅截至今天為止,本公司沒有義務更新任何這些前瞻性陳述,除非法律要求。

  • During the call, the company will also refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures as defined under applicable SEC rules. Reconciliations of such non-GAAP financial measures to the most comparable GAAP measures are contained in the company's earnings release and in the related financial tables are on its website.

    在電話會議中,本公司也會參考適用的美國證券交易委員會規則所定義的某些非公認會計準則財務指標。此類非 GAAP 財務指標與最可比較 GAAP 指標的對帳表包含在公司的收益報告和公司網站上的相關財務表中。

  • You can find a copy of the company's earnings release, which contains additional important information regarding forward-looking statements and non-GAAP financial measures in the Investors section on the company's website. I'll now turn the call over to XPO's Chief Executive Officer, Mario Harik. Mr. Harik, you may begin.

    您可以在公司網站的「投資者」部分找到公司收益報告的副本,其中包含有關前瞻性陳述和非 GAAP 財務指標的其他重要資訊。現在我將把電話轉給 XPO 的執行長 Mario Harik。哈里克先生,您可以開始。

  • Mario Harik - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Mario Harik - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our call. I'm here with Kyle Wismans, our Chief Financial Officer, and Ali Faghri, our Chief Strategy Officer. Earlier today, we reported strong second quarter results. We generated $2.1 billion of revenue and adjusted EBITDA of $340 million.

    大家早安,感謝你們參加我們的電話會議。我和我們的財務長 Kyle Wismans 以及我們的首席策略長 Ali Faghri 一起來到這裡。今天早些時候,我們公佈了強勁的第二季業績。我們創造了 21 億美元的收入,調整後 EBITDA 為 3.4 億美元。

  • Our adjusted EPS of $1.05 exceeded expectations. And our North American LTL business continues to outperform the industry, building on our momentum across the network. Over the past two years, we've improved our adjusted operating ratio by 470 basis points in a soft rate environment, underscoring the strength of our operating model. And in the second quarter, we outpaced both the industry and normal seasonality on margin expansion.

    我們的調整後每股收益為 1.05 美元,超出預期。我們的北美 LTL 業務繼續超越行業表現,並藉助整個網路的強勁勢頭。在過去兩年中,我們在軟利率環境下將調整後的營業比率提高了 470 個基點,凸顯了我們營運模式的優勢。在第二季度,我們的利潤率成長速度超過了行業和正常的季節性。

  • This was underpinned by above-market yield growth, ongoing cost efficiencies and most important, the superior service that supports our customers. Additional highlights of the quarter include our strategic investments in the network and the technology that differentiates our value proposition. I'll speak to our recent progress, starting with customer service.

    這是由高於市場的收益成長、持續的成本效率以及最重要的,為我們的客戶提供的優質服務所支撐的。本季的其他亮點包括我們對網路和差異化價值主張的技術的策略性投資。我將談談我們最近的進展,首先從客戶服務開始。

  • In the second quarter, we achieved year over year improvement in damage frequency and a damage claims ratio of 0.3%. This reflects the discipline we bring to our service culture. We also continue to raise the bar with on-time performance with our 13 straight quarter of year over year improvement.

    第二季度,我們的損害頻率較去年同期有所改善,損害賠償率下降了 0.3%。這體現了我們服務文化的紀律性。我們也持續提高準時履行的標準,並連續 13 個季度實現同比增長。

  • Our network speed and reliability are key differentiators for our customers. We're continuing to elevate our world-class service levels with a customer loving mindset across our organization. A significant network expansion and technology-driven operating excellence. The ongoing investments we're making in the network support both long-term growth and efficiency. Since launching our LTL growth plan in 2021, we've added nearly 6,000 tractors and more than 17,000 traders to our fleet.

    我們的網路速度和可靠性是我們客戶的關鍵差異化因素。我們將繼續以客戶至上的理念在整個組織內提升我們世界一流的服務水準。網路顯著擴張,技術驅動卓越營運。我們對網路的持續投資支持了長期成長和效率。自 2021 年啟動 LTL 成長計畫以來,我們已為車隊增加了近 6,000 輛拖拉機和超過 17,000 名貿易商。

  • Our average tractor age is now less than four years, which improves reliability and reduces maintenance costs. On the real estate side, we're seeing strong contributions from the growth of our footprint. In recent quarters, we've opened some of the largest LTL service centers in North America, including two additional break bulk locations in Carlile, Pennsylvania and Greensboro, North Carolina.

    我們的拖拉機平均使用年限現在不到四年,這提高了可靠性並降低了維護成本。在房地產方面,我們的足跡成長帶來了巨大貢獻。最近幾個季度,我們在北美開設了一些最大的零擔運輸服務中心,包括位於賓州卡萊爾和北卡羅來納州格林斯博羅的兩個散貨運輸中心。

  • These facilities sit in key freight corridors and are ramping up fast helping us move more direct loads by building density in the network. Our customer shipments are flowing more efficiently end-to-end, and we're reducing both three handles and miles while also enhancing our pickup and delivery operations.

    這些設施位於主要的貨運走廊,並且正在快速增加,透過提高網路密度來幫助我們運輸更多的直接貨物。我們的客戶貨物端到端流動更加高效,我們減少了三次搬運和里程,同時也增強了我們的提貨和送貨業務。

  • Almost all of the acquired facilities are now open, and we've met our target of 30% excess door capacity. This positions us to capture profitable share in the freight market rebound and unlock more operating leverage. Now let's turn to pricing, which continues to be a key driver of our outperformance.

    目前,幾乎所有收購的設施都已開放,我們已經實現了 30% 超額門容量的目標。這使我們能夠在貨運市場反彈中獲得獲利份額並釋放更多的經營槓桿。現在讓我們來談談定價,它仍然是我們業績優異的關鍵驅動因素。

  • Our strong service levels are enabling us to earn above-market yield growth and with new business. In the second quarter, we increased yield, excluding fuel by 6.1% year over year with sequential growth from the first quarter. And we see a long runway to further align our pricing as we enhance our value to customers. We're also seeing a benefit to mix from local accounts and premium services which now represent a larger share of our revenue and carry higher margins.

    我們強大的服務水準使我們能夠獲得高於市場的收益成長和新業務。在第二季度,我們的收益(不包括燃料)年增 6.1%,與第一季相比有所增長。隨著我們不斷提升對客戶的價值,我們看到進一步調整定價的長期前景。我們也看到了本地帳戶和優質服務組合帶來的好處,這些服務現在佔據了我們收入的更大份額,並帶來了更高的利潤率。

  • Demand continues to grow for our premium offerings, including our gross city consolidation service, which we expect toramp in the coming months. It's an attractive end market with significant growth potential, and our differentiated service offering uniquely positions us to gain share in this vertical.

    我們的優質服務(包括我們的全城整合服務)的需求持續成長,我們預計該服務將在未來幾個月內迅速成長。這是一個極具吸引力的終端市場,具有巨大的成長潛力,我們提供的差異化服務使我們在這個垂直領域佔據了獨特的優勢。

  • Cost efficiency is another area of the business where we made meaningful progress in the quarter, most notably with labor productivity and line haul. Our proprietary labor planning platform gives our managers visibility into volume flows with the ability to adjust staffing to demand in real time. We're seeing significant benefits, including a second quarter improvement in labor hours per shipment versus the prior year.

    成本效率是我們在本季取得重大進展的另一個業務領域,最顯著的是勞動生產力和乾線運輸。我們專有的勞動力規劃平台使我們的管理人員能夠了解流量,並能夠根據需求即時調整人員配置。我們看到了顯著的收益,包括第二季每批貨物的工時與去年同期相比有所改善。

  • This is just one example of how our best-in-class technology helps us improve margins even when demand is down. It's a competitive advantage that will compound as industry volumes recover. On the linehaul side, we reduced outsourced miles to just 6.8% of total miles, which brought down our purchase transportation expense by 53% year over year.

    這只是一個例子,說明我們一流的技術如何幫助我們在需求下降時提高利潤率。隨著產業規模的恢復,這種競爭優勢將會不斷增強。在幹線運輸方面,我們將外包里程減少到總里程的 6.8%,這使我們的採購運輸費用比去年同期下降了 53%。

  • That's more than 900 basis points lower than last year and the best level in our history with ward opportunity ahead. And our new AI-powered linehaul models are driving additional savings reducing normalized linehaul miles by 3% and miles by over 10% and freight diversions by more than 80%.

    這比去年低了 900 多個基點,是我們歷史上最好的水平,未來還有更多的機會。我們新的人工智慧幹線運輸模型正在帶來額外的節省,將標準幹線運輸里程減少 3%,里程減少 10% 以上,貨運改道減少 80% 以上。

  • Recently, we started piloting AI-driven functionality for trailer and route assignments and pickup and delivery operations. The early results are encouraging with positive trends in stops per hour and trailer utilization. We're excited about what AI can mean for our operations and our customers, and we expect it to become increasingly important to our strategy over the long term.

    最近,我們開始試行人工智慧驅動的拖車和路線分配以及取貨和送貨作業功能。早期結果令人鼓舞,每小時停車次數和拖車利用率呈現正面趨勢。我們對人工智慧對我們的營運和客戶的意義感到興奮,並且我們預計它對我們的長期策略將變得越來越重要。

  • In closing, we reported another quarter of outperformance that showcase the operating momentum we've built across every part of the business. We delivered strong yield growth, realized cost savings throughout the network, and deepen our competitive edge through world-class service and technology.

    最後,我們報告了另一個季度的優異表現,展現了我們在業務各個部分建立的營運勢頭。我們實現了強勁的收益成長,實現了整個網路的成本節約,並透過世界一流的服務和技術增強了我們的競爭優勢。

  • Our AI initiatives are already generating measurable returns and our investments in the network are unlocking new levels of efficiency and flexibility. We're operating from a position of strength with a clear plan to deliver sustained margin expansion and long-term value creation. With that, I'll turn it over to Kyle to walk through the financials. Kyle, over to you.

    我們的人工智慧計畫已經產生了可衡量的回報,我們在網路方面的投資正在釋放新的效率和靈活性水平。我們憑藉著雄厚的實力和明確的計劃來持續擴大利潤並創造長期價值。說完這些,我會把問題交給凱爾來介紹財務狀況。凱爾,交給你了。

  • Kyle Wismans - Chief Financial Officer

    Kyle Wismans - Chief Financial Officer

  • Thank you, Mario, and good morning, everyone. I'll cover the company's financial performance along with our balance sheet and liquidity position. Total company revenue was $2.1 billion, in line with last year and up 6% sequentially from the first quarter. In our LTL segment, revenue declined 3% on a year over year basis, largely due to a reduction in fuel surcharge revenue tied to the price of diesel. Excluding fuel, LTL revenue was down 1%.

    謝謝你,馬裡奧,大家早安。我將介紹公司的財務表現以及我們的資產負債表和流動性狀況。公司總營收為 21 億美元,與去年持平,比第一季環比成長 6%。在我們的零擔運輸部門,收入比去年同期下降了 3%,主要是由於與柴油價格掛鉤的燃油附加費收入減少。不包括燃料,零擔運輸收入下降了 1%。

  • On a sequential basis, LTL revenue increased 6%. On the cost side in LTL, we continue to make meaningful progress in reducing our purchase transportation expense. Our third-party carrier expense declined 53% year over year as we in-source more linehaul miles. This resulted in $36 million in savings for the quarter.

    與上一季相比,零擔運輸收入成長了 6%。在零擔運輸成本方面,我們在降低採購運輸費用方面繼續取得有意義的進展。由於我們增加了乾線運輸里程,我們的第三方承運人費用比去年同期下降了 53%。這使得本季度節省了 3600 萬美元。

  • With labor, we held our cost of salary wages and benefits, roughly flat year over year by improving productivity, which offset inflationary pressures. Our technology has been the key to realizing steady productivity gains across our network. In terms of equipment, our maintenance cost per mile improved 6%, supported by the addition of newer tractors to our fleet. LTL depreciation expense increased 13% or $10 million, consistent with our strategy investing in the network, including our rolling stock.

    對於勞動力,我們透過提高生產力,將工資和福利成本維持在與去年同期基本持平的水平,從而抵消了通膨壓力。我們的技術是實現整個網路生產力穩定提升的關鍵。在設備方面,由於我們的車隊增加了新的拖拉機,因此我們的每英里維護成本提高了 6%。LTL 折舊費用增加了 13% 或 1000 萬美元,這與我們投資網絡(包括我們的機車車輛)的策略一致。

  • Next, let's turn to adjusted EBITDA. Company-wide, we generated $340 million of adjusted EBITDA, down 1% from a year ago. In our LTL segment, we grew adjusted EBITDA by 1% to $300 million and expanded this margin by 90 basis points to 24.2%. These results speak to the strength of our operating model.

    接下來,讓我們來談談調整後的 EBITDA。全公司範圍內,我們的調整後 EBITDA 為 3.4 億美元,比去年同期下降 1%。在我們的 LTL 部門,我們的調整後 EBITDA 成長了 1%,達到 3 億美元,利潤率提高了 90 個基點,達到 24.2%。這些結果證明了我們的營運模式的優勢。

  • We have the ability to deliver strong yield growth and cost discipline in a soft environment, as we did in the second quarter. This helped offset headwinds from lower fuel surcharge revenue, tonnage, and pension income. For our European Transportation segment, we reported adjusted EBITDA of $44 million while the corporate segment had a $4 million loss.

    正如我們在第二季所做的那樣,我們有能力在疲軟的環境下實現強勁的收益成長和成本控制。這有助於抵消燃油附加費收入、噸位和退休金收入下降的不利影響。對於我們的歐洲運輸部門,我們報告的調整後 EBITDA 為 4,400 萬美元,而企業部門虧損 400 萬美元。

  • For the total company, second quarter operating income was $198 million, which is a 1% increase from the prior year. Net income was $106 million, which equates to $0.89 of diluted earnings per share. And on an adjusted basis, EPS was $1.05 compared with $1.12 a year ago. Lastly, we generated $247 million of cash flow from operating activities in the quarter and deployed $191 million of net CapEx.

    就整個公司而言,第二季的營業收入為 1.98 億美元,比上年成長 1%。淨收入為 1.06 億美元,相當於每股攤薄收益 0.89 美元。經調整後,每股收益為 1.05 美元,去年同期為 1.12 美元。最後,我們在本季從營運活動中產生了 2.47 億美元的現金流,並部署了 1.91 億美元的淨資本支出。

  • Moving to the balance sheet. We ended the quarter with $225 million of cash on hand. Combined with available capacity under our committed borrowing facility, this gave us $824 million of liquidity at quarter end. And our net debt leverage ratio improved to 2.5 times trailing 12 months adjusted EBITDA compared with 2.7 times a year ago. Looking ahead, while we remain committed to investing in initiatives to support long-term growth.

    轉到資產負債表。本季結束時,我們的現金餘額為 2.25 億美元。加上我們承諾的借款額度下的可用容量,這使我們在季度末擁有 8.24 億美元的流動資金。我們的淨債務槓桿率改善至過去 12 個月調整後 EBITDA 的 2.5 倍,而去年同期為 2.7 倍。展望未來,我們將持續致力於投資支持長期成長的措施。

  • We expect our CapEx to moderate and our free cash flow conversion to increase going forward. This positions us with greater flexibility to return capital to shareholders over time and pay down debt. Regarding share buybacks, we initiated a program with $10 million of common stock repurchased in the second quarter, and we plan to scale our buyback activity as free cash flow increases. This reflects our confidence in the long-term value of our shares. With that, I'll hand it over to Ali to walk through our operating results.

    我們預計未來我們的資本支出將會適度,而我們的自由現金流轉換將會增加。這使我們能夠更靈活地隨著時間的推移向股東返還資本並償還債務。關於股票回購,我們在第二季啟動了一項計劃,回購了 1000 萬美元的普通股,我們計劃隨著自由現金流的增加擴大回購活動。這反映了我們對股票長期價值的信心。說完這些,我就把我們的經營績效交給阿里來報告。

  • Ali Faghri - Chief Strategy Officer

    Ali Faghri - Chief Strategy Officer

  • Thank you, Kyle. I'll begin with a review of our operating results for the LTL segment, where we continue to execute well despite a soft rate environment. Total shipments per day declined 5.1% compared with the prior year. We drove meaningful growth in our local channel with shipments up by high single digits, which is an acceleration from the prior quarter.

    謝謝你,凱爾。我將首先回顧我們的零擔運輸 (LTL) 部門的經營業績,儘管利率環境疲軟,但我們仍然表現良好。每日總出貨量與前一年相比下降了5.1%。我們在本地通路實現了有意義的成長,出貨量成長了高個位數,比上一季有所加速。

  • We're capturing share in this high-margin segment through targeted outreach and a value proposition that clearly resonates with our customers, with weight per shipment down 1.6%, tonnage per day declined 6.7% and largely in line with normal seasonal trends.

    我們透過有針對性的推廣和與客戶產生明顯共鳴的價值主張來佔領這一高利潤領域的份額,每批貨物的重量下降了 1.6%,每天的噸位下降了 6.7%,基本上符合正常的季節性趨勢。

  • Importantly, we improved both tonnage and shipments per day on a year over year basis from the first quarter, a positive trend we anticipate will continue in the second half. Looking at the monthly numbers compared with the prior year for tonnage, April was down 5.5%, May was down 5.7%, and June was down 8.9%.

    重要的是,與第一季相比,我們的日貨運量和貨運量均有所提高,我們預計這一積極趨勢將在下半年持續下去。與去年同期相比,4月噸位下降了5.5%,5月下降了5.7%,6月下降了8.9%。

  • For shipments per day, April was down 4.1%, May was down 5% and June was down 6.2%. For July, we estimate that tonnage will be down in the 8% range, which is slightly better than normal seasonality compared to June. Turning to pricing. We delivered another quarter of strong yield performance yields, excluding fuel, was up 6.1% year over year and revenue per shipment increased 5.6%.

    就每日出貨量而言,4 月下降 4.1%,5 月下降 5%,6 月下降 6.2%。我們預計 7 月的噸位將下降 8% 左右,與 6 月相比,略好於正常季節性。談到定價。我們又一個季度實現了強勁的收益表現,不包括燃料的收益同比增長 6.1%,每批貨物的收入增長 5.6%。

  • Both underlying metrics also improved from the first quarter marking our tenth consecutive quarter of sequential increase in revenue per shipment. We expect our sequential pricing gains to continue through the rest of the year, supported by our high service levels, premium offering, and growth in the local channel.

    這兩項基本指標也較第一季有所改善,標誌著我們每批貨物的收入連續第十個季度成長。我們預計,由於我們高水準的服務、優質的產品和本地通路的成長,我們的價格將在今年剩餘時間內持續上漲。

  • Our approach to pricing is highly disciplined and managed with our proprietary technology to ensure a fair price for the value we deliver. This is a key driver of our margin improvement. Moving to profitability. We improved our adjusted operating ratio by 300 basis points sequentially to 82.9% in the second quarter, outperforming normal seasonality and delivering on our outlook.

    我們的定價方法非常嚴格,並採用專有技術進行管理,以確保我們所提供的價值具有公平的價格。這是我們利潤率提高的關鍵驅動力。轉向盈利。我們第二季的調整後營業比率環比提高了 300 個基點,達到 82.9%,超過了正常的季節性,並實現了我們的預期。

  • On a year over year basis, this is an improvement of 30 basis points, making us the only public LTL carrier to expand margins. We achieved these strong results through a combination of disciplined yield management cost efficiencies and productivity gains, all enhanced by our technology.

    與去年同期相比,這項利潤率提高了 30 個基點,使我們成為唯一一家擴大利潤率的公共零擔運輸公司。我們透過嚴謹的收益管理、成本效率和生產力的提高取得了這些強勁的業績,而這一切都得益於我們的技術。

  • Looking at our European transportation business, we made solid progress despite the tough macro backdrop. We increased revenue 4% year over year and delivered a 38% sequential increase in adjusted EBITDA, ahead of seasonal expectations. We also grew adjusted EBITDA year over year in several key markets including the UK and Central Europe. This demonstrates the strength of our execution and customer relationships.

    縱觀我們的歐洲運輸業務,儘管宏觀環境嚴峻,我們還是取得了穩定進展。我們的營收年增 4%,調整後 EBITDA 較上季成長 38%,超出季節性預期。在英國和中歐等幾個主要市場,我們的調整後 EBITDA 也實現了同比增長。這體現了我們的執行力和客戶關係的實力。

  • Another encouraging sign is the value of prospective business in our sales pipeline, which is trending higher than the prior year. We're seeing increased demand across Europe as customers respond to the quality and range of our service offerings.

    另一個令人鼓舞的跡像是,我們的銷售管道中潛在業務的價值呈現高於前一年的趨勢。隨著客戶對我們服務的品質和範圍的回應,我們看到整個歐洲的需求不斷增加。

  • To wrap up, I'd like to highlight the levers that are driving our industry-leading margin expansion in LTL. First, we're consistently delivering above-market yield growth, and we expect to sustain that going forward as our pricing initiatives continue to gain traction. We're also making further improvements to our cost structure realizing significant savings from in-sourcing linehaul miles and becoming more productive across our network.

    最後,我想強調一下推動我們在 LTL 領域實現業界領先利潤擴張的槓桿。首先,我們持續提供高於市場的收益成長,隨著我們的定價措施繼續獲得支持,我們預計這種成長將持續下去。我們也進一步改善了我們的成本結構,透過內部採購幹線運輸里程實現了大幅節省,並提高了整個網路的生產力。

  • Our proprietary technology is a key factor in these games as it helps us extract more value from every shipment. The structural advantages underlying our strategy enable us to drive margin expansion even as industry volumes are down. We're uniquely positioned to outperform in any part of the cycle and deliver long-term earnings growth.

    我們的專有技術是這些遊戲的關鍵因素,因為它可以幫助我們從每批貨物中獲得更多價值。我們策略背後的結構性優勢使我們能夠在產業規模下降的情況下推動利潤率的擴大。我們擁有獨特的優勢,能夠在周期的任何階段表現出色,並實現長期獲利成長。

  • Now we'll take your questions. Operator, please open the line for Q&A.

    現在我們來回答大家的提問。接線員,請開通問答專線。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Scott Group, Wolfe Research.

    (操作員指示) Scott Group、Wolfe Research。

  • Scott Group - Analyst

    Scott Group - Analyst

  • Maybe you can just give us a little bit of color on the OR for the third quarter. And I know you talked about 100 basis points of improvement for the year. How we're thinking about that? And then maybe just big picture, the grocery stuff sounds new. Maybe Mario, just talk a little bit about what the opportunity of that is and why that's an attractive market?

    也許您可以為我們稍微介紹一下第三季的 OR。我知道您談到了今年 100 個基點的改善。我們對此有何看法?然後也許只是總體情況,雜貨聽起來很新鮮。也許馬裡奧,可以稍微談談這個市場有什麼機會,以及為什麼這是一個有吸引力的市場嗎?

  • Mario Harik - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Mario Harik - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • You got, it's Scott. So we're starting with the third quarter or our outlook. We do expect another strong quarter for margin performance. And now typically, normal seasonality for us on OR sequentially it increases by 200 to 250 basis points from Q2 to Q3. But given what we're seeing so far, we expect our Q3 or to be at a similar level to Q2, so call it smartish on a quarter-over-quarter basis, which represents both a very strong year on year improvement and a significant outperformance to seasonality on a sequential basis.

    你懂的,他是史考特。因此,我們從第三季或我們的展望開始。我們確實預期利潤率將再創強勁表現。現在通常情況下,OR 的正常季節性會從第二季到第三季連續增加 200 到 250 個基點。但根據目前的情況,我們預計第三季的業績或將與第二季持平,因此可以稱其為季度環比增長,這既代表著同比強勁增長,也代表著環比季節性顯著改善。

  • And that's going to be driven by our continued strength in yield and our effective cost management as well. . And when you look at the full year OR, given how volume trended in the first half of the year and what we expect in the third quarter, we expect full year (technical difficulty) should be down in that mid-single-digit range.

    這將得益於我們持續強勁的收益和有效的成本管理。。當您查看全年 OR 時,考慮到上半年的交易量趨勢以及我們對第三季度的預期,我們預計全年(技術難度)應該會下降到中等個位數範圍內。

  • And obviously, nobody can predict the macro, so we'll see how the year plays out. as we have said last quarter, this would be supportive of 100 basis points of year on year improvement then which is a very strong outcome in a soft train environment and will be the only LTL carrier improving margins again year-on-year after improving them by 260 basis points last year.

    顯然,沒有人能夠預測宏觀經濟,所以我們將拭目以待今年的趨勢。正如我們上個季度所說的那樣,這將支持同比增長 100 個基點,這在疲軟的火車環境中是一個非常強勁的結果,並將成為唯一一家在去年利潤率提高 260 個基點之後再次實現利潤率同比提高的 LTL 承運商。

  • In terms of the new offering on the grocer reconsolidation side, it's a great business. This is a business where you would have a grocer that test suppliers shipping product into that (technical difficulty). And then we help them effectively consolidate that freight in our terminals and then be able to get all of that freight all at once at a grocer. It's the attractive market. We estimated to these costs of $1 billion in market size, and it comes with a very good margin.

    就雜貨商重組方面的新產品而言,這是一項很棒的業務。這是一個讓你的雜貨商測試供應商將產品運送到那裡的業務(技術難度)。然後我們幫助他們在我們的終端有效地整合貨物,然後能夠一次性將所有貨物運送到雜貨店。這是一個有吸引力的市場。我們估計這些成本的市場規模為 10 億美元,而且利潤率非常高。

  • And we -- today, we are underrepresented in that segment of business. We are in that low single-digit range, and we expect to grow in it over time. Our service product has never been better, so we can support our customers there on those services. And we've had early success here in the second quarter on boarding a few customers, and we expect that to happen in the back half of the year as well.

    而我們—今天,我們在該業務領域的代表性不足。我們目前處於較低的個位數範圍內,我們預計隨著時間的推移,這一數字還會增長。我們的服務產品從未如此出色,因此我們可以透過這些服務為客戶提供支援。我們在第二季度已經成功地吸引了一些客戶,我們預計今年下半年也會取得同樣的成功。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ken Hoexter, Bank of America.

    美國銀行的肯‧霍克斯特 (Ken Hoexter)。

  • Ken Hoexter - Analyst

    Ken Hoexter - Analyst

  • I guess I'm going to jump over to aside that we don't talk about much, but Europe really posted some pretty stronger-than-expected results. Maybe talk a little bit more about what was the surprise drivers there? What we can expect as we move into the rest of the year? And then on the core side, just how low purchased transportation, are we testing the limits of what you want to do? And I guess, Mario, what's the next leg of operational improvement to continue to drive you toward the upper 70s?

    我想我要跳到我們不常談論的話題,但歐洲確實公佈了一些比預期更強勁的業績。也許可以再多談談那裡令人驚訝的驅動因素是什麼?進入今年餘下的時間,我們可以期待什麼?然後在核心方面,購買的運輸成本到底有多低,我們是否在測試您想要做的事情的極限?我想,馬裡奧,下一步的營運改進是什麼,可以讓你繼續達到 70 年代後期的水平?

  • Mario Harik - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Mario Harik - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes, you got it. I can. I'll start on the linehaul side and the cost levers for or improvement, and I'll turn it over to Ali to discuss Europe. But when you look at the -- starting with the linehaul in-sourcing, so we were down to a new record, 6.8% here in the second quarter. And we expect to continue to bring that down in that mid-single-digit range through the course of the back half of the year.

    是的,你明白了。我可以。我將從幹線運輸方面和成本槓桿或改進開始,然後我將把它交給阿里來討論歐洲。但是,當你從幹線運輸內部採購開始看,我們在第二季的降幅創下了新高,為 6.8%。我們預計今年下半年這數字將持續下降至個位數中段。

  • Now let's say that will be a lever for us, if you think of 2026 because our entry point in 2025 was higher than the exit point. We're still going to get a comp dynamic of a good cost guy in 2026. Now keep in mind, though for us, the biggest improvement in that cost category is around making sure that we are immune to truckload rates coming up.

    現在假設這對我們來說是一個槓桿,如果你想到 2026 年,因為我們 2025 年的切入點高於退出點。到 2026 年,我們仍將獲得一位優秀成本經理的薪酬動態。現在請記住,對於我們來說,該成本類別中最大的改進是確保我們不受即將上漲的卡車裝載費率的影響。

  • So in the next up cycle, when volume is up, when yield is even higher than what it is today, we would be able to get less of a headwind from truckload rates going up, and that's going to be a meaningful improvement compared to prior up cycles.

    因此,在下一個上升週期中,當運輸量上升,收益率甚至高於現在的水平時,我們將能夠減少卡車運輸費率上漲帶來的阻力,與之前的上升週期相比,這將是一個有意義的改善。

  • The other two levers of cost that we're very excited about moving forward. The first one is around AI capabilities and technology. We have launched many capabilities here in the second quarter, and we're going to continue to launch these in the back half of the year going into 2026. And if you think about it, again, even at the trough of the cycle, we are improving productivity across our network. And when you see that cycle turn, we expect to meaningfully improve productivity as well.

    我們對另外兩個成本槓桿的進展感到非常興奮。第一個是關於人工智慧能力和技術。我們在第二季度推出了許多功能,我們將在 2026 年下半年繼續推出這些功能。如果你再想想,即使是在周期的低谷,我們也在提高整個網路的生產力。當你看到這個週期轉變時,我們也期望顯著提高生產力。

  • Here in the second quarter, we launched AI enhancements to our linehaul models that enabled us to reduce the total linehaul miles were driving for the same amount of volume in that low to mid-single-digit range, which is a great, great benefit for us. And we're also piloting now PND incremental capabilities in AI that will make our P&D cost even lower.

    在第二季度,我們推出了乾線運輸模型的人工智慧增強功能,使我們能夠將相同運輸量的干線運輸總里程減少到低到中等個位數的範圍內,這對我們來說是一個巨大的好處。我們現在也正在試行人工智慧中的 PND 增量功能,這將進一步降低我們的 P&D 成本。

  • So we're excited about the outlook of these technologies we're launching across the network. And the other lever is around the new breakout location that we have been launching here for the course of the last year typically in LTL, the service center, the more efficient you are. And when you think about it hit in the first half, we launched two of the largest service centers in trucking in North America and Greensboro North Carolina and in Carlisle, Pennsylvania.

    因此,我們對在網路上推出的這些技術的前景感到非常興奮。另一個槓桿是圍繞我們去年在這裡推出的新突破點,通常是在 LTL 服務中心,效率越高。想想上半年的成績,我們在北美推出了兩個最大的卡車運輸服務中心,分別位於北卡羅來納州格林斯博羅和賓州卡萊爾。

  • And this allows us to build density in our linehaul network, reduce the handles and be able to get effectively a much more efficient network and how we operate them, given improved service quality as well. So these are all the cost levers we expect to compound over time here beyond 2025, going to '26, '27, '28, as we launch those capabilities.

    這使我們能夠提高幹線運輸網路的密度,減少處理量,並能夠有效地獲得更有效率的網路和運作方式,同時提高服務品質。因此,隨著我們推出這些功能,這些都是我們預計在 2025 年以後、2026 年、2027 年、2028 年將逐漸增加的成本槓桿。

  • Unidentified Company Representative

    Unidentified Company Representative

  • And then, Ken, on the Europe side, you're right. The second quarter was a strong quarter for us and what was a challenging environment. We grew year over year organic revenue for the sixth consecutive quarter. And then if you look at adjusted EBITDA sequentially was up nearly 40%, and that was much better than normal seasonality. I think in particular, we saw strength in the UK and Central Europe.

    然後,肯,從歐洲方面來說,你是對的。第二季度對我們來說是一個強勁的季度,同時也是一個充滿挑戰的環境。我們的有機收入連續第六個季度年增。然後,如果你看一下調整後的 EBITDA,它環比增長了近 40%,這比正常的季節性要好得多。我認為,我們尤其看到了英國和中歐的實力。

  • On the EBITDA side, both markets for us were up in that low to mid-single-digit range on a year over year basis you think about EBITDA growth. As you think about the second half of the year and the third quarter, in particular, typically, EBITDA in our European segment steps down sequentially Q2 to Q3 by call it, mid-single-digit million dollars sequentially.

    在 EBITDA 方面,對我們來說,兩個市場的 EBITDA 成長率與去年同期相比都處於低至中等個位數範圍內。當您考慮下半年和第三季時,特別是,通常情況下,我們歐洲部門的 EBITDA 會從第二季到第三季連續下降,也就是連續下降幾千萬美元。

  • But we would expect to outperform that as we move from us into the third quarter from a seasonality perspective.

    但從季節性角度來看,隨著進入第三季度,我們預計表現會更好。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Fadi Chamoun, BMO Capital Markets.

    蒙特利爾銀行資本市場的 Fadi Chamoun。

  • Fadi Chamoun - Analyst

    Fadi Chamoun - Analyst

  • Mario and team. So kind of big picture question. So you've highlighted some of the cost and especially focusing on the revenue levers that you're that you're executing on to drive this revenue per shipment performance. My question is, can -- in the third year of this kind of muted freight market right now, if we have another year of this kind of performance kind of end market being muted being costs. Are you experiencing like a change in the conversation with your customer?

    馬裡奧和團隊。這是一個宏觀問題。因此,您強調了一些成本,並特別關注了您正在執行的收入槓桿,以推動每批貨物的收入表現。我的問題是,目前貨運市場已經處於低迷狀態,如果再過一年,終端市場的表現和成本都會處於低迷狀態,這種情況會是如何?您是否感受到與客戶的對話改變了?

  • Does it get harder to achieve the type of leverage from the initiatives that you're doing on the service side, the initiatives that you're doing on penetrating local channel? Does it get harder as you go into another year potentially a weak end market demand? I'm just wondering how should we think about kind of going into 2026 about this momentum that is very self-help driven here on that revenue per shipment if we have another year of muted backdrop for freight demand.

    您在服務方面採取的措施、您在滲透本地管道方面採取的措施是否越來越難以發揮影響力?隨著進入新的一年,終端市場需求可能變得疲軟,情況是否會變得更加困難?我只是想知道,如果貨運需求再經歷一年低迷,我們應該如何看待 2026 年這種由自助驅動的每批貨物收入的成長勢頭。

  • Mario Harik - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Mario Harik - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Well, Fadi, if you look at it, if you take a step back, we've been delivering yield performance that is meaningfully above market now for a number of years. But a lot of that, if you take a step back when we started our plan the yield differential between us and the best-in-class carrier normalized for weight per shipment, length of haul was about 15 points.

    好吧,法迪,如果你回顧一下,你會發現我們多年來一直提供的收益率表現遠高於市場水平。但是,如果你回顧一下我們開始製定計劃時的情況,我們與一流承運商之間的收益差異(按每批貨物的重量和運輸距離標準化)約為 15 個點。

  • And through the course of the last few years, we were able to take that gap from probably 15 points down to the low double digit, low teens. And we have another here double-digit percentage to go above market over the next, call it five years for us to bridge the gap with the best-in-class carrier.

    在過去的幾年裡,我們成功地將差距從大約 15 個百分點縮小到了兩位數或十幾個百分點。而在接下來的五年內,我們仍將以兩位數的百分比超越市場,縮小與一流航空公司的差距。

  • So we have a massive runway ahead of us in terms of these improvements. And high level, if you break down that delta when we started our plan, about half of it was driven by a better service product that lets that carry you to have better pricing over time.

    因此,就這些改進而言,我們還有很長的路要走。從高層次來看,如果你分解我們開始計劃時的增量,你會發現大約一半的增量是由更好的服務產品推動的,這種產品可以讓你隨著時間的推移獲得更好的定價。

  • About 500 basis points were these premium services that were a gap for us, we didn't have them in our portfolio of offering for customers and about 2.5 points of yield differential were driven by our local channel, which represented 20% of our book of business as opposed to 30% is what the target would be.

    大約 500 個基點是這些優質服務造成的差距,我們沒有將它們納入為客戶提供的產品組合中,而大約 2.5 個基點的收益率差異是由我們的本地管道造成的,這占我們業務量的 20%,而目標是 30%。

  • And by going from 20% of the book being small to medium-sized businesses to 30% equivalent to about 2.5 points of yield. Now our goal for the first category on service leading to better pricing is to bridge that gap a point a year incremental to what the market is doing. And this is what effectively we've been doing here over the last few years. If you look at serial revenue, we launched a half a dozen or so premium services last year. And these are resonating very well with our customers especially when you couple them with a great service product.

    並將中小型企業的比例從 20% 提高到 30%,相當於收益率約 2.5 個百分點。現在,我們針對第一類服務制定更優惠價格的目標是,每年根據市場狀況逐步縮小這一差距。這正是我們過去幾年來一直在做的事情。如果你看一下連續收入,你會發現我們去年推出了六種左右的優質服務。這些都與我們的客戶產生了很好的共鳴,特別是當你將它們與優質的服務產品結合時。

  • So more and more customers are signing up for these services. When we started our plan, our assessorial as a percent of revenue were 9% to 10% and we can go up to 15% is what the target is. And we're currently call it a couple of points better than where we saw it, and we still have another runway for three years of outperformance.

    因此,越來越多的客戶註冊這些服務。當我們開始製定計劃時,我們的稅收佔收入的百分比是 9% 到 10%,而我們的目標是上升到 15%。我們目前稱其比我們看到的要好幾個點,並且我們仍然有另一條跑道可以實現三年的優異表現。

  • And then same thing on the local channel growth when we started we were at 20% as a percent of total, we're now in the low to mid-20% range. Here, this last quarter, Fad, we grew the local segment, the small to medium-sized businesses, high single digit on a tonnage basis, which is an acceleration from the first quarter as well. So when you look at it, I would go (technical difficulty) to bridge that gap, 0.5 point a year, and we're two years into a five-year runway for that aspect.

    同樣,當我們剛開始時,本地通路的成長佔總量的 20%,現在則在 20% 的低點到中位數範圍內。在上個季度,Fad,我們的本地業務、中小型企業的噸位成長了高個位數,這也是從第一季開始加速的。所以當你看到它時,我會去(技術難度)來彌補這個差距,每年 0.5 個百分點,而我們在這方面的五年跑道已經過去了兩年。

  • So when you think of our yield initiatives, all of them have a very long runway, years ahead of us. And here in what is the trough of the cycle, I mean, the ISN has been sub-seasonal now for the better half or three years and then the better part of three years. And yes, we are delivering impeccable yield across the board, and we expect that to continue over the quarters and years to come and even get better in an up cycle.

    因此,當您想到我們的收益計劃時,您會發現它們都還有很長的路要走,未來幾年都會如此。這裡是週期的低谷,我的意思是,ISN 現在已經連續大半年或三年處於亞季節性狀態,然後是三年的大部分時間。是的,我們在各個方面都實現了無可挑剔的收益,我們預計這種收益將在未來幾季和幾年內持續下去,甚至在上升週期中會變得更好。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jonathan Chappell, Evercore ISI.

    喬納森·查佩爾(Jonathan Chappell),Evercore ISI。

  • Jonathan Chappell - Analyst

    Jonathan Chappell - Analyst

  • Ali, you gave a message on monthly tonnage that was kind of similar to some of your peers, you reported earlier in June, kind of much weaker than expected, pretty big deceleration than July, still weak but slightly better than normal seasonality. As we think about what Mario had said about a flat or 2Q to 3Q, with comps getting easier on tonnage in August and September, do you expect that 8% to kind of whittle its way down to a mid-single-digit decline?

    阿里,您發布的月度噸位數據與您的一些同行有些相似,您在 6 月初報告稱,月度噸位比預期要弱得多,比 7 月份大幅減速,但仍然疲軟,但略好於正常季節性。當我們思考馬裡奧所說的第二季度至第三季度持平,並且 8 月份和 9 月份噸位比較容易比較時,您是否預計 8% 的降幅會逐漸縮小至中等個位數的降幅?

  • Or are we starting from such a low point in June that even better than normal seasonality would relate to kind of a high single-digit tonnage decline in the third quarter?

    或者,我們是從 6 月的低點開始的,即使比正常季節性更好,也與第三季高個位數的噸位下降有關?

  • Ali Faghri - Chief Strategy Officer

    Ali Faghri - Chief Strategy Officer

  • Sure, John. So you're right, July was down somewhere in that 8% range, and that was slightly better than what we saw in June on a year over year basis and also better than normal seasonality relative to June. Now when you think about Q3 as a whole, comps do get easier as we move through the quarter.

    當然,約翰。所以您說得對,7 月份的銷售額下降了 8% 左右,與去年同期相比,這比 6 月份的銷售額略有好轉,也比 6 月份的正常季節性銷售額要好。現在,當你考慮整個第三季度時,隨著我們進入這個季度,比較確實會變得更容易。

  • If you recall, John, back in August of last year, industry demand has softened as a whole, and that continued into the month of September. So we would expect those year over year tonnage decline to moderate as we move through the third quarter and for the full quarter tonnage to be down less on a year over year basis than what you saw in the month of July.

    約翰,如果你還記得的話,去年 8 月,產業需求整體疲軟,這種情況一直持續到 9 月。因此,我們預計,隨著第三季的到來,年比噸位下降趨勢將會緩和,並且整個季度的噸位同比下降幅度將小於 7 月的水平。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jordan Alliger, Goldman Sachs.

    喬丹·阿利格,高盛。

  • Jordan Alliger - Analyst

    Jordan Alliger - Analyst

  • Yes, sort of taking things in a different direction. Let's just say that we finally get some manufacturing expansion whenever that is next year or what have you. And the negative tonnage in flex to positive, can you maybe talk through how -- with all the stuff that you've done in the last two or three years, what sort of incremental margins do you think you could produce over the course of the start of the next up cycle and through it?

    是的,從某種程度上來說,事情朝著不同的方向發展。我們只能說,無論何時,我們最終都會實現一些製造業擴張,也就是明年或以後。並且從負噸位到正噸位的轉變,您能否談談——透過您在過去兩三年中所做的所有工作,您認為在下一個上升週期開始和期間您可以產生什麼樣的增量利潤?

  • Mario Harik - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Mario Harik - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes, you got it, Jordan, first of all, we're incredibly excited about the up cycle when it comes. I mean, obviously, here, even in a freight soft market in the down cycle, we're delivering margin improvement two years in a row is the expectation. And obviously, in the up cycle, we're going to -- it's -- we're off to the races. But I'll walk you through a couple of items.

    是的,喬丹,你明白了,首先,我們對上升週期的到來感到無比興奮。我的意思是,顯然,即使在下行週期的貨運市場疲軟的情況下,我們也有望連續兩年實現利潤率的提高。顯然,在上升週期中,我們將——我們將——開始比賽。但我會向你介紹幾項內容。

  • In terms of incremental margins, we do expect to be comfortably over 40% of incrementals. If you go back to late last year in the fourth quarter, the last quarter of revenue growth before the soft first half of the year, our incrementals within the 70% change our EBIT incrementals. Obviously, we'd love it to be 70% in the up cycle, but we would say we don't want to get too big of an expectation. So we're cool in that 40% range. Now what are the drivers?

    就增量利潤率而言,我們確實預計增量將輕鬆超過 40%。如果回顧去年第四季度,即上半年業績疲軟之前的最後一個營收成長季度,我們的增量在 70% 以內,改變了我們的息稅前利潤增量。顯然,我們希望它處於上升週期的 70%,但我們不想抱太大的期望。所以我們對 40% 的範圍很滿意。那麼驅動因素是什麼呢?

  • I just mentioned earlier on our yield initiatives driving above market yield growth. Now it's notable in enough cycle to see LTL yield across the industry go up meaningfully. So if the industry is doing it to high single digit or high single digits, we expect to outperform that by a few points in terms of overall yield performance.

    我剛才提到,我們的收益計畫推動了高於市場的收益成長。現在,在足夠的周期內,可以看到整個行業的零擔收益大幅上升。因此,如果該行業的收益率達到高個位數或高個位數,我們預計整體收益率表現將比該行業高出幾個百分點。

  • And if you break it down, all the levers that we have in terms of growing with the small- to medium-sized business I mean so far year-to-date, we've onboarded more than 5,000 new local customers. So just kind of give you an example on the momentum that we've built in an up cycle with these type of customers.

    如果你把它分解開來,我們擁有的所有幫助中小型企業成長的槓桿,我的意思是,今年到目前為止,我們已經吸收了超過 5,000 名新的本地客戶。因此,我只能舉一個例子來說明我們在與這類客戶合作的上升週期中建立的勢頭。

  • Similarly, when you think about the premium services, all of these are launched and gaining steam. We're building pipelines on each one of them and in an up cycle carriers that don't have the capacity might have service issues.

    同樣,當您考慮優質服務時,所有這些服務都已推出並獲得發展。我們正在每條管道上建造管道,在上升週期中,沒有足夠容量的運輸船可能會出現服務問題。

  • And in that particular case, we'll be able to onboard more of these premium services and grow them at a higher clip. When you look at the cost side, historically, we used to have a bigger headwind from purchase transportation where when the up cycle comes typically truckload rates go up. In that particular case, our exposure now is a much, much lower exposure, which means higher incremental margins.

    在這種特殊情況下,我們將能夠提供更多優質服務,並以更高的速度發展它們。從成本方面來看,從歷史上看,我們在採購運輸方面面臨更大的阻力,而當上升週期到來時,卡車運輸費用通常會上漲。在這種特殊情況下,我們現在的風險敞口要低得多,這意味著更高的增量利潤。

  • Similarly, on the productivity side, when you look at it post yellow bankruptcy when tonnage was up, we improved productivity, the two quarters after the tip operation by 7% in one quarter to 4% in the following quarter. Currently in the trough of the cycle with improving productivity by about one point a quarter.

    同樣,在生產力方面,當你看到黃色破產後噸位上升時,我們提高了生產力,在垃圾處理運營後的兩個季度中,一個季度的生產力提高了 7%,而下一個季度的生產力提高了 4%。目前正處於週期低谷,生產力每季提高約一個百分點。

  • So when you fast that forward with the compounding effect of the AI initiatives, our technology, you can imagine productivity is going to be at a much, much higher clip as well. And ultimately, we have now larger locations, 30% excess capacity. A fleet agent is in a fantastic place, service quality that is in a fantastic place. And I'll tell you -- I can tell you how excited we are when that up cycle comes, it will be a meaningful expansion and meaningful incremental margins there as well.

    因此,當你利用人工智慧計畫和技術的複合效應來加速這一進程時,你可以想像生產力也將以更高的速度提高。最終,我們現在擁有更大的生產基地,產能過剩 30%。車隊代理處於一個非常棒的位置,服務品質也處於一個非常棒的位置。我會告訴你——我可以告訴你,當上升週期到來時我們有多興奮,這將是一次有意義的擴張,也將帶來有意義的增量利潤。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ariel Rosa, Citi.

    花旗銀行的 Ariel Rosa。

  • Ariel Rosa - Analyst

    Ariel Rosa - Analyst

  • Congrats on some of the improvement here in a tough freight market. Mario, I was curious to get your thoughts. Just obviously, there's an industry disruption event happening next year with the separation of the largest player from its parent. I'm curious if you're seeing any impact on the market or the competitive dynamics from that? And just if you could talk about the overall competitive environment and the extent to which you're seeing maybe people being a little bit more aggressive on pricing than what we've seen in the past.

    恭喜我們在艱難的貨運市場中取得了一些進展。馬裡奧,我很好奇你的想法。顯然,隨著最大的參與者與其母公司分離,明年將發生一場產業顛覆事件。我很好奇,您是否看到這對市場或競爭動態有任何影響?如果你能談談整體競爭環境,以及你所看到的人們在定價方面可能比過去更激進的程度。

  • Mario Harik - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Mario Harik - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes, it's a little bit off for the FedEx spending the Freight business. I think it would be good for the industry overall because it will continue to ensure that focus on price discipline and margin expansion. And as a standalone entity, as an TL carrier, one of the biggest drivers for profit growth over time is liked by margin expansion. And every LTL operator knows that the number one lever to improve margins is around pricing.

    是的,聯邦快遞在貨運業務上的支出有點少。我認為這對整個行業有利,因為它將繼續確保對價格紀律和利潤率擴大的關注。作為一個獨立實體,作為一家 TL 營運商,利潤成長的最大驅動力之一就是利潤率的擴大。每個零擔運輸業者都知道,提高利潤率的首要槓桿是定價。

  • So we believe that's going to help overall the industry as a whole. But otherwise, I mean they're a great company. They're a great competitor today, and they will be a great competitor tomorrow. I don't see that changing if they were on a stand-alone basis or part of the bigger FedEx.

    因此我們相信這將對整個行業有所幫助。但除此之外,我認為他們是一家很棒的公司。他們今天是偉大的競爭對手,明天仍將是偉大的競爭對手。無論他們是獨立營運還是隸屬於更大的聯邦快遞,我都不認為這種情況會改變。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Stephanie Moore, Jefferies.

    史蒂芬妮摩爾,傑富瑞集團。

  • Joe Hoffman - Analyst

    Joe Hoffman - Analyst

  • This is Joe Hoffman on for Stephanie Moore. Congrats on the good results. I guess my question is on how we should think about pricing into the back half. You've talked about consistent above market yield, but in terms of the sequential improvement in yield we've seen, can we expect to see that kind of pace continue into the second half?

    喬·霍夫曼 (Joe Hoffman) 代替斯蒂芬妮·摩爾 (Stephanie Moore) 發言。恭喜你取得好成績。我想我的問題是關於我們應該如何考慮後半部分的定價。您談到了持續高於市場的收益率,但就我們所看到的收益率的連續改善而言,我們是否可以預期這種速度會持續到下半年?

  • And then just obviously, the growth in local channel is a big driver of that. So can you sustain kind of that high single-digit clip growth in the local channel?

    顯然,本地通路的成長是推動此趨勢的重要因素。那麼,您能在本地通路維持這種高個位數成長嗎?

  • Kyle Wismans - Chief Financial Officer

    Kyle Wismans - Chief Financial Officer

  • Sure, this is Kyle. So when you think about Q3 yield ex fuel, we would expect to continue to improve sequentially from Q2. And now that improvement would continue into Q4 as well. So if you think on a year over year basis, we'd expect Q3 yield ex fuel to grow at or above the level we saw in Q2.

    當然,這是凱爾。因此,當您考慮第三季燃料收益時,我們預計該收益將從第二季開始繼續環比提高。現在,這種改善也將持續到第四季。因此,如果以同比計算,我們預計第三季(不含燃料)的收益率將達到或超過第二季的水平。

  • Now if you think pricing in terms of revenue per shipment, we'd also expect revenue per shipment to increase sequentially in both Q3 and Q4 this year. And to put that in context, that's building on 10 consecutive quarters of sequential improvement we delivered. So we feel really good about a lot of the initiatives we have on the pricing front. Speaking specifically to local channel. When you think about local, as Mario mentioned, the start of this initiative, we're about 20% share.

    現在,如果您根據每批貨物的收入來考慮定價,我們也預計今年第三季和第四季每批貨物的收入將連續增加。具體來說,這是基於我們連續 10 個季度的持續改進。因此,我們對在定價方面採取的許多措施感到非常滿意。具體來說,是針對當地頻道。當你考慮本地時,正如馬裡奧提到的,在這項計劃開始時,我們的份額約為 20%。

  • We're now in the low to mid-20s, but the goal is to get to 30%. So you think about the ability to have that help us continue to grow yield in the back half, it should help us in the back half as well as years to come.

    我們現在處於 20% 左右,但目標是達到 30%。因此,您認為這種能力可以幫助我們在下半年繼續提高產量,它應該會在下半年以及未來幾年幫助我們。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Chris Wetherbee, Wells Fargo.

    富國銀行的克里斯‧韋瑟比。

  • Christian Wetherbee - Equity Analyst

    Christian Wetherbee - Equity Analyst

  • I wanted to ask about labor productivity and get a sense of maybe how you think that plays out in the back half of the year? Obviously, you're guiding to better than normal seasonality on the operating ratio. So potentially this plays into that.

    我想問一下勞動生產力的問題,並了解您認為今年下半年勞動生產力將如何發展?顯然,您指導的營運比率季節性優於正常水平。因此這有可能起到一定作用。

  • But I guess, as you think about the improvement maybe in labor cost per shipment or how you think about that growth, do you need to see better volume environment to make further progress on that? Or are there levers you can pull in the near term even in a down volume environment.

    但我想,當您考慮每批貨物的勞動力成本的改善或您如何看待這種增長時,您是否需要看到更好的產量環境才能取得進一步的進展?或者,即使在交易量下降的環境下,您是否可以在短期內利用一些槓桿。

  • Unidentified Company Representative

    Unidentified Company Representative

  • Well, if you think about the ability -- our ability to drive labor productivity in the quarter even with tonnage being challenged, we're able to grow improved productivity 1%. If you think about it on a labor cost per shipment basis. So we continue to expect to improve that. When you think about a lot of our initiatives, we have there tech-enabled. We like to see further improvements both on the dock when you think about when it was per hour if you think about pickup and delivery, our ability to do that.

    好吧,如果你考慮一下我們的能力——即使在噸位受到挑戰的情況下,我們在本季度提高勞動生產力的能力,我們也能夠將生產力提高 1%。如果您根據每批貨物的勞動成本來考慮。因此我們繼續期望改善這一點。當你想到我們的許多舉措時,你會發現我們都是依靠科技支援的。我們希望看到碼頭的進一步改進,如果您考慮每小時的取貨和送貨,我們就能做到這一點。

  • And I think Mario mentioned this too, but if you think about linehaul cost and the ability to really integrate some of those larger service centers, that's going to help us drive further labor productivity when you think about those breaks coming up to speed. So we feel very good about our ability to drive momentum on the labor front.

    我認為馬裡奧也提到了這一點,但如果你考慮幹線運輸成本和真正整合一些大型服務中心的能力,當你考慮到這些中斷的速度時,這將有助於我們進一步提高勞動生產力。因此,我們對自己推動勞動力發展的能力感到非常滿意。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Richard Harman, Deutsche Bank.

    理查德‧哈曼,德意志銀行。

  • Richard Harman - Analyst

    Richard Harman - Analyst

  • So I wanted to ask a little bit more about the revenue environment and what exactly happened in June. So you're the second LTL carrier now that's talked about a pretty steep deceleration that happened in June. And then very pleased to see a snapback sort of in July but maybe talk through the dynamics of what happened there. And then as we think about the full year, I appreciate that comps do get easier but just risks to the guide and how you intend to offset that if the tonnage environment continues to be shaky.

    所以我想多問一些有關收入環境以及六月具體發生的情況。因此,您是第二家談論 6 月大幅減速的零擔運輸承運商。然後很高興看到 7 月出現了反彈,但也許可以談談那裡發生的動態。然後,當我們考慮全年時,我很欣賞比較確實變得更容易,但這只是對指南的風險,以及如果噸位環境繼續不穩定,你打算如何抵消這種風險。

  • Ali Faghri - Chief Strategy Officer

    Ali Faghri - Chief Strategy Officer

  • Sure. This is Ali. So when you think about our shipment trends throughout the second quarter, they were very consistent and also in line with seasonality now. We did see softer weight per shipment in the month of June, and there was really two dynamics that were driving this. First, macro and tariff uncertainty did have a greater impact on weight per shipment for some of our small to medium-sized customers. We do think this impact is transitory.

    當然。這是阿里。因此,當您考慮整個第二季的出貨量趨勢時,它們非常一致且也符合現在的季節性。我們確實看到六月每批貨物的重量有所下降,而這實際上有兩個因素導致了這一現象。首先,宏觀和關稅的不確定性確實對我們的一些中小型客戶的每批貨物重量產生了較大的影響。我們確實認為這種影響是暫時的。

  • This is a channel where we're seeing very strong growth and is OR accretive for us. And we also did have a tougher comp in the month of June as well on a weight per shipment standpoint. So if you look at it on a two-year stack basis, that does help normalize for some of that dynamic. Now as you go into the third quarter, we have seen some of that weight for shipment decline on a year over year basis, continue into early July. However, more recently, we've seen some normalization in that trend versus seasonality.

    這是一個我們看到非常強勁成長並且對我們具有增值的管道。從每批貨物的重量來看,六月我們的競爭也更加激烈。因此,如果你以兩年為基礎來看待它,這確實有助於使某些動態正常化。現在進入第三季度,我們發現出貨量年減,而且這種下降趨勢一直持續到 7 月初。然而,最近,我們看到這種趨勢相對於季節性有所正常化。

  • So we would expect that trend on weight per shipment to improve on a year over year basis as we move through the third quarter. And then overall, as you think about our ability to deliver on our OR outlook, obviously, we're not immune to the macro.

    因此,我們預計,隨著第三季的到來,每批貨物的重量趨勢將比去年同期有所改善。總的來說,當您考慮我們實現 OR 前景的能力時,顯然,我們並沒有免受宏觀影響。

  • However, as we've demonstrated we do have multiple levers to pull on both the yield and the cost side to mitigate the impact of lower volumes. You saw that here in the first half of the year and in Q2, in particular, decremental margins were 9% in the quarter. And what's going to allow us to deliver on that sort of performance comes back to the yield out performance, our ability to continue to grow yield above market.

    然而,正如我們已經證明的那樣,我們確實有多種槓桿來在產量和成本方面發揮作用,以減輕產量下降的影響。您可以看到,在今年上半年,尤其是第二季度,利潤率下降了 9%。而讓我們能夠實現這種業績的因素則取決於收益率表現,也就是我們持續將收益率提高到高於市場水準的能力。

  • And then also on the cost side, when you think about our cost structure being about two-third variable, we have the ability to manage labor to align our labor cost to the volume we're seeing in the network and our technology plays a big part in that as well.

    然後,在成本方面,當您考慮到我們的成本結構約有三分之二是變數時,我們有能力管理勞動力,使我們的勞動力成本與我們在網路中看到的數量保持一致,並且我們的技術也在其中發揮著重要作用。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Tom Wadewitz, UBS.

    瑞銀的湯姆·韋德維茨(Tom Wadewitz)。

  • Thomas Wadewitz - Equity Analyst

    Thomas Wadewitz - Equity Analyst

  • So wanted to ask you a little bit about the grocery again. I know you had a question on that, I talked about that a bit. But is that something that is a couple of players are big in that and it's kind of specialized and you'll probably take some share from a few players like that's kind of unusual for big LTL to be in that area? And then just thinking about that kind of competitive dynamic there. And then how many areas are there left in the pipeline like that just things that are LTL, you have a large number of customers, a variety of customers.

    所以想再次向您詢問一些有關雜貨的問題。我知道你對此有疑問,我稍微談了一下。但是,是不是有幾個玩家在該領域很強大,而且有點專業化,你可能會從幾個玩家那裡獲得一些份額,就像大型 LTL 出現在該領域有點不尋常一樣?然後就思考一下那裡的競爭動態。那麼,管道中還剩下多少個區域,就像 LTL 一樣,您有大量的客戶,各種各樣的客戶。

  • So we don't necessarily know what the next area is you might look at, but how many other things are there in the pipeline in '26, '27 that are like, hey, this is an interesting part of the market that we don't compete in actively today, and we can add that on

    因此,我們不一定知道您接下來會關注哪些領域,但 26、27 年還有多少其他項目正在籌備中,例如,嘿,這是一個有趣的市場部分,我們目前還沒有積極參與其中,我們可以補充這一點。

  • Unidentified Company Representative

    Unidentified Company Representative

  • Thanks, Tom. So when you look at the grocery business, it is a more consolidated business in the LTL segment. And the reason why is that a great service is a prerequisite to be able to deliver on those expectations for the customers. And what we -- with our service improvements, I mentioned earlier and on that our on time has improved for the 13 consecutive quarter here for us. And similarly, on the claims side, we have one of the best claims ratios in the industry as well and that's resonating with customers.

    謝謝,湯姆。因此,當您觀察雜貨業務時,您會發現它是零擔運輸領域中更整合的業務。原因在於,優質的服務是滿足顧客期望的先決條件。正如我之前提到的,透過改善我們的服務,我們的準時性已經連續 13 個季度提高。同樣,在索賠方面,我們的索賠率也是業內最好的之一,這引起了客戶的共鳴。

  • So we're seeing actually some of these customers come to us and ask us to get onboarded and be able to kind of get to service them in that line of business as well. So it is more consolidated today, and we expect to grow it at here over the quarters and years to come.

    因此,我們實際上看到一些客戶來找我們,要求我們加入並能夠在該業務領域為他們提供服務。因此,今天它更加鞏固了,我們預計在未來幾季和幾年內它將繼續成長。

  • Now if you recall last year, we have launched a number of these premium services all the way from most arrived by date, for example, where you have to get to a customer within a certain time window and then services acetal so rollout like expanding our trade show offerings.

    現在,如果您還記得去年,我們已經推出了許多優質服務,例如,從大多數按日期到達的服務,您必須在一定的時間窗口內到達客戶,然後提供縮醛服務,以便擴大我們的貿易展產品範圍。

  • So all of these come at a higher yield because typically, the customer pays an extra fee for the incremental service that they're asking for. Now in terms of what's left out of these services, the first thing time I'd say for each one of those, once you launch them, it's in your sales force on how to sell them and then you build the pipeline for these opportunities and that pipeline grows over time.

    因此,所有這些都會帶來更高的收益,因為通常情況下,客戶會為他們要求的增量服務支付額外的費用。現在,關於這些服務還剩下什麼,我首先要說的是,對於每一項服務,一旦你推出了它們,就由你的銷售人員來決定如何銷售它們,然後你為這些機會建立渠道,並且這個渠道會隨著時間的推移而增長。

  • So that's going to be the gift that keeps on giving here over the quarters and years to come. With grocery specifically, we're now building the pipeline. We're going to start converting a number of these accounts here in the back half of the year and going into 2026.

    因此,這將是未來幾季和幾年內持續給予的禮物。具體來說,對於食品雜貨,我們現在正在建立通路。我們將在今年下半年開始轉換一些此類帳戶,預計到 2026 年。

  • Other services include, for example, expedite service is something we don't offer today, although we have one of the fastest networks in the industry in terms of trends at times. But offering that incremental expedited service for the customer is something we're contemplating, things like security, the divers and our trailers are things we're contemplating.

    其他服務包括,例如,加急服務是我們目前不提供的,儘管就趨勢而言,我們擁有業內最快的網路之一。但我們正在考慮為客戶提供漸進式加急服務,諸如安全、潛水員和拖車等都是我們正在考慮的事情。

  • But we're looking -- there is another of the three, four or so incremental premium services we're looking at here for the next year or two.

    但我們正在考慮──未來一兩年內,我們還將推出另外三、四項增量優質服務。

  • Thomas Wadewitz - Equity Analyst

    Thomas Wadewitz - Equity Analyst

  • So if you think about it kind of how far through those you are and the impact are you halfway through 30% through just in terms of the actual volume or revenue contribution from the broader book of new services. Just where are you at broadly on that?

    因此,如果你想想你已經完成了多少,以及僅從實際數量或更廣泛的新服務的收入貢獻來看,你完成了 30% 的一半的影響。您對此有何看法?

  • Mario Harik - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Mario Harik - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • So we're early innings. I mean I'd say we're the third of the way of where we want to be by call of 2027, 2028. We are -- if you -- it goes back to the incremental revenue we get from assessorial services, as I mentioned earlier, Tom, we do not -- when we thought in our plan, we were to 1% of our revenue was driven by accessories, and now we're up a couple of points from that number. And we still have it on way here for the next three years to get to, call it, 15% as a percent of revenue.

    因此我們剛開始比賽。我的意思是,我想說,到 2027 年、2028 年,我們已經完成了我們想要達到的目標的三分之一。我們 - 如果你 - 這可以追溯到我們從配件服務中獲得的增量收入,正如我之前提到的,湯姆,我們不會 - 當我們在計劃中思考時,我們的 1% 的收入是由配件驅動的,現在我們已經從這個數字上升了幾個點。我們仍將在未來三年內努力將其收入比例提高到 15%。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Brian Ossenbeck, JPMorgan.

    摩根大通的 Brian Ossenbeck。

  • Brian Ossenbeck - Analyst

    Brian Ossenbeck - Analyst

  • First, just a quick follow-up on Ari's question about FedEx. Is there -- we saw the announcement earlier about the MMSE delay in terms of and then pushing it out to December, where I think everybody else has gone forward with that new structure. So I wanted to hear if that was an opportunity or basically it sounds like a challenge for them. So how does that affect? And then maybe just some broader comments on cash flow and capital deployment.

    首先,我來快速回答 Ari 關於聯邦快遞的問題。我們之前看到了關於 MMSE 延期的公告,然後將其推遲到 12 月,我認為屆時其他所有人都已經採用了這種新結構。所以我想聽聽這對他們來說是否是一個機會,或者基本上是一個挑戰。那麼這會產生什麼影響?然後也許只是對現金流和資本配置的一些更廣泛的評論。

  • Commenting if you can give us a little bit of sense in terms of where you think CapEx is going to head into 2016 and beyond, what are the sort of leverage targets we should think about in terms of deleveraging? And then ultimately, what sort of buyback deployment should we be thinking about here?

    評論一下,您能否告訴我們,您認為 2016 年及以後資本支出的走向如何?在去槓桿方面,我們應該考慮什麼樣的槓桿目標?那麼最終,我們應該考慮什麼樣的回購部署?

  • Kyle Wismans - Chief Financial Officer

    Kyle Wismans - Chief Financial Officer

  • Sure, Brian. So let's start with the MFC changes. So FDA implemented changes on how freight is classified. And if you think about it, really the main change was subcategories of existing classification of products and now class can be determined by density of that product. So we don't really think it's going to materially impact any way pricing is done.

    當然,布萊恩。那麼就讓我們從 MFC 的變化開始。因此 FDA 對貨物分類方式進行了更改。如果你仔細想想,你會發現主要的變化實際上是現有產品分類的子類別,現在可以透過產品的密度來確定類別。所以我們並不認為這會對定價方式產生實質影響。

  • I mean for us, we're really thinking about how to proactively communicate with our customers to make sure that they understand how their freight is properly classified and rated. I think to your question, different carriers implement it differently. It's tough to tell why they made a delay. For us, we dimensioned over 90% of our freight. So we collect the info needed to really drive this a multitude of ways, and we want to make sure our customers understand the impact.

    我的意思是,對我們來說,我們確實在考慮如何主動與客戶溝通,以確保他們了解如何正確分類和評級他們的貨物。我認為對於您的問題,不同的運營商實現的方式不同。很難說清楚他們為何拖延。對於我們來說,超過 90% 的貨物都進行了尺寸測量。因此,我們透過多種方式收集真正推動這一目標所需的信息,並希望確保我們的客戶了解其影響。

  • But I think thus far from the implementation on July 19, we really haven't seen any changes. And then if you move into free cash flow and how we think about capital. I think one comment to make is that you're asking about leverage and some of the buyback piece. I think what's important too, if you step back and think about our overall ability to generate cash, when you think about the business moving forward, we think a couple of dynamics are going to take place. So one, we think CapEx is going to moderate. So if you think about last year, we spent almost 15% of revenue on CapEx in the LTL space.

    但我認為,自 7 月 19 日實施以來,我們確實沒有看到任何變化。然後,如果您轉向自由現金流以及我們如何看待資本。我認為您要問的是槓桿和一些回購部分。我認為同樣重要的是,如果你退一步思考我們整體創造現金的能力,當你考慮業務的未來發展時,我們認為將會發生一些動態變化。因此,我們認為資本支出將會放緩。如果你回想去年,我們在 LTL 領域的資本支出上花了近 15% 的收入。

  • That's going to come down a couple of points this year. We talked about no longer having the level of need in terms of bringing those facilities off-line, that will mitigate, same thing with the fleet. We're sub-7% from an outsourced line haul miles. That will help us reduce that CapEx need. And then in addition to that, we're going to see less cash taxes in the back half of this year and next year, and then we're going to continue to grow EBITDA.

    今年這數字將會下降幾個百分點。我們談到不再需要讓這些設施下線,這將減輕影響,車隊也面臨同樣的情況。我們的外包幹線運輸里程不到 7%。這將有助於我們減少資本支出需求。除此之外,我們將看到今年下半年和明年的現金稅減少,然後我們的 EBITDA 將繼續成長。

  • So from a cash flow standpoint, we think we're going to generate a lot of cash, both this year and then into next year. Now when you think about capital allocation, how do we prioritize that, I think first and foremost, we want to fund CapEx needed by the business, and we'll continue to do that. And I think second to that, as you asked about leverage, we're still going to drive towards our long-term leverage target of one to two times.

    因此,從現金流的角度來看,我們認為今年和明年我們都將產生大量現金。現在,當您考慮資本配置時,我們如何確定優先順序,我認為首先,我們希望為業務所需的資本支出提供資金,並且我們將繼續這樣做。其次,正如您所問到的槓桿率,我認為我們仍將努力實現一到兩倍的長期槓桿率目標。

  • And in fact, this month, we paid down $50 million of our term loan B to continue to start that process. Now as cash continues to build, we'll have more excess cash, that's going to give us more flexibility to redeploy that. And we'll look at accelerating that share buyback, both in the back half of this year and into next year. I mean what we're going to do is really what drives the highest return of capital for our shareholders.

    事實上,本月,我們償還了 5000 萬美元的定期貸款 B,以繼續啟動這項流程。現在,隨著現金不斷增加,我們將擁有更多的剩餘現金,這將為我們提供更大的靈活性來重新部署現金。我們將考慮在今年下半年和明年加速股票回購。我的意思是,我們要做的真正是為股東帶來最高的資本回報。

  • Brian Ossenbeck - Analyst

    Brian Ossenbeck - Analyst

  • And then, Kyle, just the impact from bonus depreciation this year and into next year.

    然後,凱爾,這只是今年和明年獎金貶值的影響。

  • Kyle Wismans - Chief Financial Officer

    Kyle Wismans - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes. So when it comes to the tax ligation passed, I think from our standpoint, there's going to be a few impacts on that side. So obviously, the 100% Boeing deprecation will be a help for us in the back half of this year and into next year in terms of the cash tax. But I think there's a couple of other pieces there, Brian, that's going to help us as well, both the interest expense deduction as well as the deduction for R&D investment.

    是的。因此,當談到稅收訴訟通過時,我認為從我們的角度來看,這將產生一些影響。因此,顯然,波音 100% 的折舊將對我們今年下半年和明年的現金稅有所幫助。但我認為還有其他幾點也會對我們有幫助,布萊恩,包括利息費用扣除和研發投資扣除。

  • So I'd expect a material impact from a cash standpoint in the back half of this year and next year on cash taxes.

    因此,我預計從現金角度來看,今年下半年和明年的現金稅將產生重大影響。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Bascome Majors, Susquehanna International Group.

    巴斯科姆梅傑斯公司、薩斯奎漢納國際集團。

  • Bascome Majors - Analyst

    Bascome Majors - Analyst

  • Just a follow-up on an earlier question. Can you talk philosophically about how you're thinking about the buyback? You're only $10 million in, but I'd be curious. Is this more opportunistic? Is it excess cash how value sensitive are you? Just some of the thoughts about how we can potentially size that up as a driver of your growth going forward?

    這只是對先前問題的後續回答。您能否從哲學角度談談您對回購的看法?你只投入了 1000 萬美元,但我很好奇。這是否更具機會主義色彩?這是多餘的現金嗎?您對價值有多敏感?您是否有一些想法可以考慮如何將其作為未來成長的驅動力?

  • Ali Faghri - Chief Strategy Officer

    Ali Faghri - Chief Strategy Officer

  • You got it Bascome. Well, as Kyle just said, when you think of capital allocation, one of our biggest goal is to create shareholder value. And that comes -- and if you look at the back half of this year, we're going to generate a meaningful out of free cash flow. And going into next year, with capital stepping down, earnings growing we do a better tax profile as well. We do expect also a meaningful cash increase as we head into next year.

    你明白了,巴斯科姆。嗯,正如凱爾剛才所說,當你考慮資本配置時,我們最大的目標之一就是創造股東價值。如果你看一下今年下半年,你會發現我們將從自由現金流中產生有意義的收益。進入明年,隨著資本減少、收益成長,我們的稅收狀況也會更好。我們確實預計,進入明年,現金也將大幅增加。

  • After we fund the business, there's obviously the way we think about it is that we're going to be both paying down debt and buying back shares and that's going to compound over time and the ratio will depend on what we're seeing from an overall value perspective of the stock and valuation. And kind of how we are accelerating also our takeout of the debt stack as well. But that's going to be a -- it's an underappreciated part of our shareholder value creation over the years to come.

    在我們為企業提供資金後,我們顯然會考慮既要償還債務,又要回購股票,而且隨著時間的推移,這一比例將取決於我們從股票和估值的整體價值角度所看到的情況。我們也正在加速清除債務。但這將是未來幾年我們為股東創造價值中被低估的一部分。

  • So second, when you think about it with that free cash flow growing over time, both the debt paydown and the buybacks will compound that would enable us to have another lever of value creation and earnings growth.

    其次,當你考慮到自由現金流隨著時間的推移而增長時,債務償還和回購都會增加,這將使我們能夠擁有另一個價值創造和獲利成長的槓桿。

  • Bascome Majors - Analyst

    Bascome Majors - Analyst

  • If we look at the restructuring and transaction costs added together here, the add-backs were $100 million a couple of years ago down to $80 million last year, they're run rating it may be 50 or so in the first half of this year. That's encouraging to see. Do you think that the earnings quality and will continue to improve going forward and what's the cash flow impact of that?

    如果我們看這裡的重組和交易成本加在一起,幾年前的加回金額為 1 億美元,去年則降至 8000 萬美元,他們的運行評級在今年上半年可能為 50 左右。看到這一點令人鼓舞。您認為未來的獲利品質會繼續改善嗎?這對現金流有何影響?

  • Mario Harik - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Mario Harik - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • So Bascom, if you look at those lines, I mean, I think we were significantly lower than the second quarter. And most of these expenses related to restructuring, and this is some of the cost takeout we've mentioned earlier. This was focused really on that salary and some of the functional support teams.

    所以巴斯科姆,如果你看一下這些線條,我的意思是,我認為我們明顯低於第二季。這些費用大部分與重組有關,這也是我們之前提到的部分成本支出。這其實主要集中在薪水和一些職能支援團隊。

  • So that's going to help us contribute to really earnings growth moving forward, certainly will help us from an or outperformance in the back half of this year. And again, as Mario said, because this is a structural, this not only helps in the back half of this year but also into next year.

    因此,這將有助於我們真正實現未來的獲利成長,也肯定會幫助我們在今年下半年取得優異表現。正如馬裡奧所說,因為這是一個結構性因素,這不僅對今年下半年有幫助,而且對明年也有幫助。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jason Seidl, JD Cowen.

    傑森·塞德爾、JD·考恩。

  • Jason Seidl - Analyst

    Jason Seidl - Analyst

  • I wanted to go back to the side. I mean you guys have done a really great job of in-sourcing line haul, it seems you're well on your way to your sort of 2% goal for '27. Between now and then, can you put a dollar amount on getting to that 2% sort of what would it mean for the bottom line and cost? And then also, you referenced utilizing AI and had some early successes there. So how should we think about the opportunity to save costs with AI over the next, say, three years?

    我想回到那邊。我的意思是,你們在內包幹線運輸方面做得非常出色,看來你們已經順利實現了 27 年 2% 的目標。從現在到那時,您能否估算出達到 2% 的金額,這對底線和成本意味著什麼?另外,您提到了利用人工智慧並取得了一些早期的成功。那麼,我們該如何看待未來三年利用人工智慧節省成本的機會呢?

  • Mario Harik - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Mario Harik - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • So first starting with the third-party linehaul in-sourcing. So keep in mind that today, whenever we in-source third-party linehaul miles, we are in-sourcing that to our own equipment and our own drivers. And even in the depressed truckload rate environment, we say roughly around 5% per mile on a cost-saving perspective using our own equipment.

    因此,首先從第三方幹線運輸內部採購開始。因此請記住,今天,每當我們外包第三方幹線運輸里程時,我們都會將其外包給我們自己的設備和我們自己的司機。即使在卡車運輸成本低迷的環境下,使用我們自己的設備,從成本節約的角度來看,每英里的運費大約可以節省 5% 左右。

  • And this is just a mile-for-mile comparison. Now on top of that, we are getting a higher load average and higher efficiency running our own equipment because usually, in LTL, we run two pubs to move the freight or two short traders, 28 trailers to move the phrase.

    這只是一個英里與英里之間的比較。現在最重要的是,我們在運行自己的設備時獲得了更高的平均負載和更高的效率,因為通常在 LTL 中,我們會運行兩個酒吧來運輸貨物或兩個短途貿易商,即 28 輛拖車來運輸貨物。

  • While third part -- and which is 36 feet worth of space, while we usually get only 53 feet worth of space with a third-party carrier. So you're getting this incremental, call it, 6% more space, which also adds more density and higher efficiency as well. We also get the service benefit whenever our drivers here if you look at last quarter were on time, maybe at 100%. When you look at third-party carriers, they typically operate in that 90% to 95% on time.

    第三部分有 36 英尺的空間,而我們透過第三方承運人通常只能獲得 53 英尺的空間。因此,您可以獲得這個增量,即 6% 的更多空間,這也會增加密度和更高的效率。如果你看一下上個季度的情況,只要我們的司機準時到達,可能達到 100%,我們也能獲得服務效益。當您查看第三方承運商時,他們通常的準時率在 90% 到 95% 之間。

  • And we also get in our equipment safe stack bars separate the freight. We can secure the freight more effectively, which leads to a better service product. So you have a cost benefit in the near term that is about 5% per mile straight up and then higher efficiency which adds on top of that. Now if you think about -- does the up cycle, when truckload rates are up 20% our internal miles will go up 20% in cost. So from that perspective, we isolate our P&L from a big headwind if you were still at 25% outsourced miles in the network.

    我們還在我們的設備中安裝了安全堆放桿來分隔貨物。我們可以更有效地確保貨物安全,從而提供更好的服務產品。因此,短期內您將獲得每英里約 5% 的成本效益,此外還能獲得更高的效率。現在,如果您考慮一下——上升週期,當卡車裝載率上漲 20% 時,我們的內部里程成本將上漲 20%。因此從這個角度來看,如果網路中仍有 25% 的里程外包,我們就可以把損益與巨大的逆風隔離開來。

  • Now when you look at overall the implementation of tech and AI, we kind of be more excited about it. If you take a step back, I mean, I mentioned earlier on, we launched new AI capabilities and outline haul environment here in the second quarter, we did use on a normalized basis by the end of the quarter, our linehaul miles by low to mid-single digits. I mentioned earlier on, the meaningful outperformance we expect in the third quarter in terms of or and margin improvement and a meaningful improvement on a year on year basis.

    現在,當你全面審視科技和人工智慧的實施時,我們對此感到更加興奮。如果你退一步來看,我的意思是,我之前提到過,我們在第二季度推出了新的人工智慧功能和概要運輸環境,到本季末,我們確實在正常基礎上使用了乾線運輸里程,增加了低到中等個位數。我之前提到過,我們預計第三季的業績和利潤率將顯著提高,年比也將顯著改善。

  • A portion of that is driven by these capabilities we have launched because when your biggest cost category is going down in low to mid-single digit, that obviously is going to help you improve your margins over time. And then we're also applying AI. We're currently in pilot in a pickup and delivery and can deliver applications where we have seen were piloted currently in four terminals. And we have seen a very good improvement in stops per hour and every P&D KPI as well. It will take us a bit of time to roll it out across the network, but we see that as being a meaningful lever there for improvement.

    其中一部分是由我們推出的這些功能推動的,因為當您最大的成本類別下降到低到中等個位數時,這顯然會幫助您隨著時間的推移提高利潤率。然後我們也應用人工智慧。我們目前正在試行提貨和送貨服務,並且可以在四個終端交付我們已經試行的應用程式。我們也看到每小時停車次數和每個 P&D KPI 都有了非常好的改善。我們需要一些時間才能將其推廣到整個網絡,但我們認為這是一個有意義的改進手段。

  • And then finally, on the doc side, we've included our demand forecasting algorithms and how -- so the system that you've seen them, Jason, what it tells you how many -- how much people you need for next month for 60 days or 90 days, with real-time productivity monitoring, and this is enabling us to also improve productivity even in the trough of the cycle. So we see that as being a big lever for us over the years to come.

    最後,在文件方面,我們納入了需求預測演算法以及如何 — — 傑森,你所看到的系統會告訴你下個月 60 天或 90 天內需要多少人 — — 以及即時生產力監控,這使我們能夠在周期低谷時也提高生產力。因此,我們認為這將成為我們未來幾年的一大槓桿。

  • And again, with improving productivity in the trough of the market. And let me tell you, when the demand environment starts improving, productivity is going to go through the roof.

    並且,在市場低谷時期,生產力再次提高。我告訴你,當需求環境開始改善時,生產力就會急遽上升。

  • Jason Seidl - Analyst

    Jason Seidl - Analyst

  • No, that makes a lot of sense. But there's no way to put a dollar amount on that for, let's say, over the next three years?

    不,這很有道理。但是,沒有辦法確定未來三年的具體金額嗎?

  • Mario Harik - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Mario Harik - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • And in the near term, we are expecting in that low single digit of productivity improvements for the year, but this is against a declining volume at dare. We haven't yet put targets for it. But when you take a step back, and again, you look in an up cycle like post-allo we have been seeing mid-single-digit productivity improvement. So we're not putting targets about it yet, but you can see what that would look like over the years to come.

    而在短期內,我們預期今年的生產力將出現低個位數的提高,但這是在產量下降的情況下實現的。我們尚未為其設定目標。但是,當你退一步再看時,你會發現在後allo時期的上升週期中,我們已經看到了中等個位數的生產力提高。因此,我們還沒有為此設定目標,但你可以看到未來幾年的情況。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Daniel Imbro, Stephens Inc.

    丹尼爾·伊姆布羅(Daniel Imbro),史蒂芬斯公司

  • Daniel Imbro - Analyst

    Daniel Imbro - Analyst

  • Kyle or Ali, maybe one on the pricing side. You mentioned you expect yields to step up sequentially in the back half. When we think about maybe the driver of that. Can you quantify how much of that an acceleration to maybe core pricing you're seeing? Is it higher accessorial attachment?

    凱爾 (Kyle) 或阿里 (Ali),也許是定價方面的一個。您提到,預計下半年收益率將逐步上升。當我們思考也許造成這種情況的因素時。您能否量化一下這對核心定價的加速程度?是更高一級的附屬品嗎?

  • Is it just easier comparisons? And then expanding on the easier comparisons, I guess helping frame up the second half should we still expect the two year stack increase to decelerate through the back half of the year just as we think about what happens with comparison to the back half on yields.

    這只是更容易的比較嗎?然後擴大更容易的比較,我想這有助於建立下半年的情況,我們是否仍然預計兩年期堆疊的成長將在下半年減速,就像我們思考與下半年收益率相比會發生什麼一樣。

  • Kyle Wismans - Chief Financial Officer

    Kyle Wismans - Chief Financial Officer

  • So Daniel, when you think about core pricing, I think about our contract renewals and renewals have been very strong. The second quarter was in a similar range to what we've seen in the last several quarters. that gives a lot of confidence in our ability to deliver strong above-market renewals moving forward, and we'd expect Q3 renewals to be stronger than we saw in Q2.

    所以丹尼爾,當你考慮核心定價時,我會想到我們的合約續簽,而且續簽情況一直非常強勁。第二季的情況與過去幾季的情況相似。這讓我們對我們未來提供高於市場的強勁續約能力充滿信心,我們預計第三季的續約情況將比第二季更強勁。

  • Now when you think about a lot of the initial that are helping us drive it. And as I said before, we would expect, on a year over year basis, our Q3 yield ex fuel to be at or above levels in Q2. A lot of the efforts are going to continue to compound and help us drive up yields in the back part of the year.

    現在,當您想到許多最初幫助我們推動它的事物時。正如我之前所說,我們預計,與去年同期相比,第三季的燃料收益將達到或超過第二季的水平。許多努力將會繼續發揮作用,並幫助我們在今年下半年提高收益率。

  • Mario talked about the accessorial moves. So again, the goal on SR is to get to 15% of revenue, we're now in the low double-digit range. So that will continue to improve, and that will help us in the back half of the year. If you think about growing our local channels.

    馬裡奧談到了輔助動作。因此,SR 的目標是達到營收的 15%,目前我們處於兩位數的低點範圍。因此,情況將會繼續改善,並有助於我們在今年下半年取得進展。如果您想擴大我們的本地通路。

  • So again, local channel. We want to get to 30%. That's still right now in the low to mid-20s, and we're going to continue to move that up. And I think that, coupled with strong renewals is really our confidence to move forward. And then I think when you think about renewals, and all those efforts, the important point is not just getting a high renewal or yield, but it's seen a flow though.

    再次強調,這是本地頻道。我們想要達到 30%。目前這一數字仍在 20 多歲左右,我們將繼續提高這一數字。我認為,強勁的更新加上這些確實增強了我們前進的信心。然後我認為,當你考慮續約和所有這些努力時,重要的一點不僅僅是獲得高續約或收益,而是看到流量。

  • I think in the second quarter, really strong proof points. So our yield is up 6.1% year on year. Rev per ship was up 5.6% and seeing those flow through is a good indication that when we're having it with customers, we're retaining that freight within the network. So those renewals are really flowing through. So we feel very good about the back half of the year, continue to improve sequentially.

    我認為第二季確實有強而有力的證明點。因此我們的收益率年增了6.1%。每艘船的轉速上升了 5.6%,看到這些流量是一個很好的跡象,表明當我們與客戶合作時,我們會將貨物保留在網路內。因此這些更新確實正在順利進行中。因此,我們對下半年的表現非常滿意,並將繼續持續改善。

  • And then I said the Q3 number is going to be up on a year over year basis. higher than Q2 number.

    然後我說第三季的數字將比去年同期有所上升,高於第二季的數字。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ravi Shanker, Morgan Stanley.

    摩根士丹利的拉維·尚克(Ravi Shanker)。

  • Ravi Shanker - Equity Analyst

    Ravi Shanker - Equity Analyst

  • Just a couple here. Mario, I think you said in your prepared remarks that you see measurable gains from -- Can you potentially quantify what those returns are. And also, this may be a stupid question, but how transferable are your initiatives in both deck and ops between the US and the European operation.

    這裡只有一對夫婦。馬裡奧,我想你在準備好的發言中說過,你看到了可衡量的收益——你能否量化這些回報。而且,這可能是一個愚蠢的問題,但是你在美國和歐洲行動之間的甲板和行動中的主動性有多大可轉移性。

  • Mario Harik - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Mario Harik - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. So when you look at the AI is, as I just mentioned to Jason, so what we are seeing in the near term, so with the new AI capabilities we launched in line haul, we saw a reduction in normalized linehaul miles in the low to mid-single-digit range. So for the same amount of volume, we're driving low to mid-single digit less miles to move that freight.

    是的。因此,當您查看人工智慧時,正如我剛才向傑森提到的那樣,我們在短期內看到的是,隨著我們在幹線運輸中推出的新人工智慧功能,我們看到標準化幹線運輸里程減少了低到中等個位數的範圍。因此,對於相同數量的貨物,我們運輸貨物所需的行駛里程將減少幾英里到幾英里。

  • We saw a double-digit reduction in empty miles and we saw an 80% reduction in diversions, which helps service. So it's been a tremendous impact here in the second quarter just for the line haul capabilities we launched. In terms of the capabilities in terms of labor efficiency, whether it's in PND or dog, we're currently setting again, use expectations of improving low single-digit productivity in the trough of the cycle.

    我們發現空載里程減少了兩位數,繞行次數減少了 80%,有助於改善服務。因此,我們在第二季推出的幹線運輸能力已經產生了巨大的影響。就勞動效率方面的能力而言,無論是在PND還是狗方面,我們目前再次設定了在周期低谷時提高低個位數生產力的預期。

  • And as you know, Ravi, in an LTL network, when you too is down is much harder to improve productivity, but we're improving productivity even against that backdrop, and we expect that to accelerate in the context of an up cycle, and that will be driven by those AI initiatives, both on the pickup and delivery side. where we are improving, for example, how we do out optimization.

    如你所知,拉維,在 LTL 網路中,當你處於低迷狀態時,提高生產力會變得更加困難,但即使在這樣的背景下,我們也在提高生產力,我們預計在上升週期中生產力會加速,這將由提貨和送貨方面的人工智慧計畫推動。例如,我們正在改進的地方,我們如何進行最佳化。

  • Today, in our business, we know what all the deliveries are at any point in time because you're getting them into through your network, but your pickups come through today. So the AI can predict where these pickups will come from and be able to optimize that out more effectively as an example. Other examples are in how we organize our docs.

    今天,在我們的業務中,我們知道任何時間點的所有交付情況,因為您是透過網路接收它們的,但您的取貨是今天送達的。因此,人工智慧可以預測這些皮卡將從何而來,並能夠更有效地進行最佳化。其他範例是我們如何組織我們的文件。

  • So today, our supervisors have to manually adjust their dock door plan. Technology helps them to do it, but they still have to many will do it. And in a future version, it's got to be all AI-driven. So as a supervisor, you hit one button for AI to give you the right answers, and that would minimize the amount of travel you have on your dog, improving bulk efficiency as well. So these are the examples of things that we are launching.

    所以今天,我們的主管必須手動調整他們的碼頭門計畫。科技幫助他們做到了這一點,但仍然需要很多人來做這件事。在未來的版本中,它將完全由人工智慧驅動。因此,作為主管,您只需按下一個按鈕,人工智慧就會為您提供正確的答案,這將最大限度地減少您帶著狗出行的次數,同時提高批量效率。這些就是我們正在推出的產品的例子。

  • And again, when you compound these towards the future, we're seeing very meaningful impact in the near term, and we expect more upside in the future. In terms of how these things are plans favorable to Europe, some of it is transferable. So if you think about the cost side, if you think about route optimization, -- these are fairly transferable. If you think about labor productivity, that's fairly preferable.

    再說一次,當你將這些因素綜合到未來時,我們會在短期內看到非常有意義的影響,而我們預計未來還會有更多的上漲空間。就這些計劃如何有利於歐洲而言,其中一些是可以轉讓的。因此,如果您考慮成本方面,如果您考慮路線優化,這些都是相當可轉移的。如果你考慮勞動生產力,那是相當可取的。

  • Now when you look at areas like linehaul, not very transferable because the network LTL networks in Europe are smaller in size naturally. So you have less line haul optimization that you need to do in the environment. And similarly on pricing, typically, there -- the pricing in vitamin prices the freight by pallet as opposed to the way we do it hemin the US by class and by weight breaks which is different than how we do it in Europe. So some of these capabilities that would not be transferable over to Europe.

    現在,當您查看乾線運輸等領域時,您會發現其轉移性不強,因為歐洲的 LTL 網路規模自然較小。因此,您需要在環境中進行的干線運輸優化較少。同樣,在定價方面,通常情況下,維生素的定價是按托盤計算運費的,而我們在美國則按等級和重量計算,這與我們在歐洲的做法不同。因此,其中一些能力無法轉移到歐洲。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Scott Schneeberger, Oppenheimer & Company.

    史考特‧施尼伯格,奧本海默公司。

  • Daniel Hultberg - Analyst

    Daniel Hultberg - Analyst

  • This is Daniel on for Scott. I just want to ask on maintenance cost per mile. I mean, the fleet age come down nicely. Is there a meaningful opportunity to reduce maintenance costs going forward?

    這是丹尼爾代替斯科特。我只是想問一下每英里的維護成本。我的意思是,艦隊年齡大大下降。未來是否還有降低維修成本的有效機會?

  • Ali Faghri - Chief Strategy Officer

    Ali Faghri - Chief Strategy Officer

  • Sure, Daniel. This is Ali. So you're right. We've made a lot of progress as we've been investing in our fleet over the last several years in terms of driving down the average age of our fleet. And here in the second (technical difficulty) it was sub four years old.

    當然,丹尼爾。這是阿里。所以你是對的。過去幾年來,我們不斷投資於我們的船隊,在降低船隊平均使用年限方面取得了很大進展。而在第二次(技術困難)中,它已經不到四歲了。

  • And so we have one of the youngest fleets in the LTL industry, and that's driving a reduction in our maintenance cost per mile, which were down in that low to mid-single-digit range here in the second quarter. And as we move forward, we would expect to continue to drive our maintenance cost per mile lower into the second half of the year and into 2026.

    因此,我們擁有零擔貨運行業最年輕的車隊之一,這推動了我們每英里維護成本的降低,第二季度我們的每英里維護成本下降到了低到中等個位數的範圍內。隨著我們不斷前進,我們預計到今年下半年和 2026 年,每英里的維護成本將繼續降低。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes our time allowed for questions. I'll turn the floor back to Mr. Harik for any final comments.

    女士們、先生們,我們的提問時間到此結束。我將把發言權交還給哈里克先生,請他發表最後的評論。

  • Mario Harik - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Mario Harik - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you, Vanessa. Thanks, everyone, for joining us today. As you saw from our results, despite a soft environment when executing on the levers we can control and expanding margins even at the trough of the cycle. We're excited about the freight market recovery as we expect to accelerate our operating margin improvement. We look forward to updating you next quarter. Operator, you can now end the call. Thank you.

    謝謝你,凡妮莎。感謝大家今天加入我們。正如您從我們的結果中看到的那樣,儘管在執行槓桿時環境較弱,但即使在週期的低谷,我們仍可以控制並擴大利潤率。我們對貨運市場的復甦感到興奮,因為我們預計這將加速我們的營業利潤率的提高。我們期待下個季度向您更新最新情況。接線員,您現在可以結束通話了。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

    謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。現在您可以斷開線路。感謝您的參與。