XPO Inc (XPO) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the XPO first-quarter 2025 earnings conference call and webcast. My name is Paul, and I will be your operator for today's call. (Operator Instructions) Please note that this conference is being recorded.

歡迎參加 XPO 2025 年第一季財報電話會議及網路廣播。我叫保羅，今天我將擔任您的電話接線生。（操作員指示）請注意，本次會議正在錄音。

Before the call begins, let me read a brief statement on behalf of the company regarding forward-looking statements and the use of non-GAAP financial measures. During this call, the company will be making certain forward-looking statements within the meaning of applicable securities laws, which, by their nature, involve a number of risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements.

在電話會議開始之前，請允許我代表公司宣讀一份關於前瞻性陳述和非公認會計準則財務指標使用的簡短聲明。在本次電話會議中，本公司將根據適用證券法做出某些前瞻性陳述，這些陳述本質上涉及許多風險、不確定性和其他因素，可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中的預測有重大差異。

A discussion of factors that could cause actual results to differ materially is contained in the company's SEC filings as well as in its earnings release. The forward-looking statements in the company's earnings release or made on this call are made only as of today, and the company has no obligation to update any of these forward-looking statements, except to the extent required by law.

該公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件以及收益報告中討論了可能導致實際結果出現重大差異的因素。公司收益報告或本次電話會議中所做的前瞻性陳述僅截至今天為止，本公司沒有義務更新任何這些前瞻性陳述，除非法律要求。

During this call, the company also may refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures as defined under applicable SEC rules. Reconciliations of such non-GAAP financial measures to the most comparable GAAP measures are contained in the company's earnings release and the related financial tables or on its website. You can find a copy of the company's earnings release, which contains additional information regarding forward-looking statements and non-GAAP financial measures, in the Investors section of the company website.

在本次電話會議中，本公司也可能參考適用的美國證券交易委員會規則所定義的某些非公認會計準則財務指標。此類非 GAAP 財務指標與最可比較 GAAP 指標的對帳表包含在公司的收益報告和相關財務表格或其網站上。您可以在公司網站的「投資者」部分找到公司收益報告的副本，其中包含有關前瞻性陳述和非 GAAP 財務指標的更多資訊。

I will now turn the call over to XPO's Chief Executive Officer, Mario Harik. Mr. Harik, you may begin.

現在我將把電話轉給 XPO 的執行長 Mario Harik。哈里克先生，您可以開始。

Good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining our call. I'm here with Kyle Wismans, our Chief Financial Officer; and Ali Faghri, our Chief Strategy Officer. This morning, we reported financial results that delivered on our outlook in a challenging freight market. Company-wide, we report the first quarter revenue of $2 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $278 million, and our adjusted diluted EPS was $0.73 exceeding expectations.

大家早安。感謝您加入我們的電話會議。我和我們的財務長 Kyle Wismans 一起在場；以及我們的首席策略長 Ali Faghri。今天上午，我們報告了財務業績，這反映了我們在充滿挑戰的貨運市場中的展望。就全公司而言，我們報告第一季營收為 20 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 為 2.78 億美元，調整後稀釋每股收益為 0.73 美元，超出預期。

Importantly, our LTL segment maintained the momentum we carried through year-end and outperformed the industry. The highlight of the quarter was a sequential LTL margin improvement that was better than normal seasonality. We've now improved our adjusted operating ratio by a [cumulative] 370 basis points over two years, keeping us on the industry's best trajectory for operating efficiency and profitability.

重要的是，我們的零擔運輸部門保持了年底的勢頭，並且表現優於行業。本季度的亮點是零擔運輸利潤率連續改善，且優於正常季節性。兩年來，我們已將調整後的營業比率提高了 [累計] 370 個基點，使我們的營運效率和盈利能力保持在行業最佳水平。

In addition to strong margin performance, we accelerated yield growth, operated more cost efficiently with linehaul and labor, and enhance service quality. At the same time, we continue to invest in our network to strengthen our competitive position and sustain high returns over time. I'll walk you through the levers driving our momentum in LTL, starting with customer service.

除了強勁的利潤率表現外，我們還加快了收益成長，提高了幹線運輸和勞動力的成本效率，並提高了服務品質。同時，我們繼續投資我們的網絡，以加強我們的競爭地位並長期保持高回報。我將向您介紹推動我們在 LTL 領域發展勢頭的槓桿，首先是客戶服務。

In the first quarter, we delivered a damage claims ratio of 0.3%. Notably, we brought damages down to a record low in the quarter, which is a testament to the discipline built into our service culture. We also continue to raise the bar with on-par performance marking our 12th straight quarter of year-over-year improvement. The service centers we've opened over the past year are playing a critical role in improving service by reducing rehandles and transit miles, this helps ensure consistent outcomes for our customers. And for our company, it supports both margin expansion and the scalability of our network.

第一季度，我們的損害賠償率為 0.3%。值得注意的是，我們在本季將損失降至歷史最低水平，這證明了我們服務文化中固有的紀律性。我們也持續提高標準，實現了連續第 12 季的年成長。我們在過去一年中開設的服務中心在透過減少重新處理和運輸里程來改善服務方面發揮關鍵作用，這有助於確保為客戶提供一致的結果。對我們公司來說，它既支持利潤擴張，也支持我們網路的可擴展性。

Our larger footprint is also driving tangible gains and efficiency across dock operations, linehaul, and pickup and delivery. We've now opened almost all of the service centers we acquired and we're seeing the benefit across our network.

我們的更大足跡也為碼頭運營、幹線運輸以及提貨和送貨帶來了實際的收益和效率。我們現在已經開放了幾乎所有收購的服務中心，並且我們看到了整個網路帶來的好處。

We've also met our goal of 30% excess lower capacity in the current environment. This excess capacity positions us to capture market share in a freight upturn and unlock more operating leverage. In addition to real estate, we're committed to investing in our fleet with both tractors and trailers.

在當前環境下，我們也實現了降低 30% 過剩產能的目標。這種過剩的運力使我們能夠在貨運量上升時佔領市場份額並釋放更多的經營槓桿。除了房地產，我們也致力於投資我們的拖拉機和拖車車隊。

Since launching our LTL growth plan in 2021, we've added more than 5,000 tractors and 16,000 trailers to our network. This supports continued in-sourcing of linehaul and is helping us operate with greater flexibility for customers. The average age of our tractors is now down to four years at the low end of our targeted range. This benefits both reliability and safety, and it also reduces the cost of operating our fleet.

自 2021 年啟動 LTL 成長計畫以來，我們的網路已增加了 5,000 多輛拖拉機和 16,000 多輛拖車。這支持了乾線運輸的持續內部採購，並幫助我們為客戶提供更靈活的營運。我們的拖拉機的平均使用年限現已降至四年，處於我們目標範圍的低端。這既有利於可靠性和安全性，也降低了我們車隊的營運成本。

Turning to pricing. This remains a cornerstone of our plan, and we're seeing the impact of our pricing initiatives on yield growth. In the first quarter, we grew yield excluding fuel by 6.9% year over year, marking an acceleration from the prior quarter. This reflects the strength of our commercial strategy and the value we bring to customers. Our high-quality service is earning pricing gains that outpaced the market through contract renewals and new business.

談到定價。這仍然是我們計劃的基石，我們正在看到定價舉措對收益成長的影響。第一季度，不包括燃料在內的收益年增 6.9%，較上一季加快。這體現了我們商業策略的實力以及我們為客戶帶來的價值。我們的優質服務透過續約合約和新業務獲得了超越市場的價格收益。

In addition, local customers and our premium services are becoming more meaningful parts of our revenue mix, and both channels carry a higher margin. We have a growing pipeline of customer demand for our premium offerings, including retail store rollouts and trade show transport. We expect these initiatives to continue driving above-market yield growth well into the future.

此外，本地客戶和我們的優質服務正成為我們收入組合中更重要的部分，這兩個管道都帶來了更高的利潤率。客戶對我們的優質產品的需求日益增長，包括零售店推廣和貿易展運輸。我們預期這些舉措將在未來持續推動高於市場的殖利率成長。

Cost efficiency is another core part of our plan and an area where we made major progress this quarter particularly with linehaul and labor productivity. We lowered our purchase transportation costs by 53% year over year and reduce our outsourced linehaul miles to just 8.8% of total miles, the best level in the company's history. This is a reduction of more than 900 basis points demonstrating that we're executing well ahead of plan.

成本效率是我們計劃的另一個核心部分，也是我們本季取得重大進展的領域，特別是在幹線運輸和勞動生產力方面。我們的採購運輸成本年減了 53%，外包幹線運輸里程減少到總里程的 8.8%，這是公司歷史上的最佳水準。這一降幅超過 900 個基點，表示我們的執行情況遠遠超出計劃。

By year end, we expect to reduce outsourced miles even further into the mid-single digits, enhancing efficiency and customer service. And when demand returns, the insourcing we're doing now will protect our cost structure as truckload rates rises, enabling us to generate stronger incremental margins versus prior up cycles.

到年底，我們預計外包里程將進一步減少至中等個位數，從而提高效率和客戶服務。當需求回升時，隨著卡車裝載率的上升，我們現在進行的內部採購將保護我們的成本結構，使我們能夠產生比之前的上升週期更強勁的增量利潤。

We also continue to improve labor productivity in the quarter with our proprietary technology. Our software anticipates volume shifts before they happen, allowing our managers to flex labor hours in real time and making our network more resilient. This technology is unique to XPO and is helping us outperform on margins and profitability in the current freight downturn. It will become an even greater advantage for us in the future.

我們也持續本季利用我們的專有技術來提高勞動生產力。我們的軟體可以預測到交易量的變化，讓我們的管理人員能夠即時調整工作時間，讓我們的網路更具彈性。這項技術是 XPO 獨有的，它幫助我們在當前貨運低迷時期實現利潤率和獲利能力的提升。這將成為我們未來更大的優勢。

Before I close, I want to spend a minute on artificial intelligence. We've been investing in proprietary AI technology to realize its full potential across our business. We've already identified a number of high-impact applications initially with linehaul optimization, labor planning and pickup and delivery. These are areas where intelligent automation and better decision-making can directly enhance profitability.

在結束之前，我想花一點時間討論一下人工智慧。我們一直在投資專有人工智慧技術，以充分發揮其在我們業務中的潛力。我們已經確定了一些具有高影響力的應用，包括幹線運輸優化、勞動力規劃以及提貨和送貨。在這些領域，智慧自動化和更好的決策可以直接提高獲利能力。

Recently, we deployed new AI-driven linehaul models, designed to improve freight flows across our network. These filers are already delivering higher load averages and transit efficiencies. And our pickup and delivery operations will beta testing AI to optimize trader and route assignments at the shipment level. These tools factor in appointment windows and other logistics to enhance on-time performance.

最近，我們部署了新的人工智慧驅動的幹線運輸模型，旨在改善我們網路的貨運流量。這些文件已經提供了更高的平均負載和運輸效率。我們的取貨和送貨業務將對人工智慧進行 Beta 測試，以優化貨運層面的交易商和路線分配。這些工具考慮了預約時間和其他物流，以提高準時效能。

We see AI playing a major role in how we operate, compete, and create value over the long term. In summary, our first-quarter results reflected strong execution across the business. We delivered above-market yield growth, improved cost efficiency and raise the bar on service quality, all of which strengthened our competitive position. And our investments in capacity and technology are making our networks smarter and more agile while leveraging our scale. We built XPO to drive results in any environment, and we intend to keep outperforming the industry with sustained long-term margin expansion.

我們看到人工智慧在我們的長期營運、競爭和創造價值的方式中發揮著重要作用。總而言之，我們的第一季業績反映了整個業務的強勁執行力。我們實現了高於市場的收益成長、提高了成本效率並提升了服務品質標準，所有這些都增強了我們的競爭地位。我們對容量和技術的投資使我們的網路更加智慧、更加靈活，同時充分利用了我們的規模。我們建立 XPO 是為了在任何環境下推動業績，並且我們打算透過持續的長期利潤率擴張繼續超越行業。

Now I'm going to hand the call over to Kyle to discuss the financial results. Kyle, over to you.

現在我要把電話交給凱爾來討論財務結果。凱爾，交給你了。

Thank you, Mario, and good morning, everyone. I'll take you through our key financial results, balance sheet, and liquidity. Revenue for the total company was $2 million, down 3% year over year but up 2% sequentially from the fourth quarter.

謝謝你，馬裡奧，大家早安。我將向您介紹我們的主要財務表現、資產負債表和流動性。公司總營收為 200 萬美元，年減 3%，但季減 2%。

In our LTL segment, revenue was down 4% year over year and up 1% sequentially. The majority of the decline was related to lower fuel surcharge revenue tied to the price of diesel. Excluding fuel, LTL revenue was down 2% year over year and up 1% sequentially.

在我們的 LTL 部門，營收年減 4%，季增 1%。下降的主要原因是與柴油價格掛鉤的燃油附加費收入下降。不包括燃料，零擔貨運收入年減 2%，季減 1%。

On the cost side in LTL, we drove another significant reduction in purchased transportation expense. Our expense for third-party carriers decreased by 53% compared with the prior year as we in-source more of our linehaul runs. This equated to a reduction of $41 million in the quarter.

在零擔運輸成本方面，我們再次大幅降低了購買運輸費用。由於我們將更多的幹線運輸業務轉入內部承運，我們用於第三方承運商的費用與前一年相比減少了 53%。這相當於本季減少了 4,100 萬美元。

We also utilized our labor more productively, resulting in a 1% improvement in hours per shipment in the quarter. Notably, we're able to hold our total costs, salary, wages, and benefits at a similar level to last year's first quarter despite inflation. To do this, we've been utilizing the productivity tools in our proprietary technology. These capabilities are unique to XPO and will be increasingly valuable as our network grows.

我們也更有效率地利用了勞動力，使得本季每批貨物的運輸時間提高了 1%。值得注意的是，儘管存在通貨膨脹，我們仍能夠將總成本、薪資、薪資和福利維持在與去年第一季相似的水平。為了實現這一目標，我們一直在利用我們的專有技術中的生產力工具。這些功能是 XPO 獨有的，並且隨著我們網路的發展將變得越來越有價值。

On the equipment side, we achieved a 5% reduction in maintenance cost per mile, primarily due to our purchase of new tractors for our fleet. We expect this cost to track lower in the future as older units are retired. LTL depreciation expense increased by 10% or $7 million, reflecting the priority we placed on making ongoing investments in our network.

在設備方面，我們實現了每英里維護成本降低 5%，這主要歸功於我們為車隊購買了新拖拉機。我們預計，隨著老舊設備的退役，未來這成本將會降低。LTL 折舊費用增加了 10% 或 700 萬美元，這反映了我們對持續投資網絡的重視。

Next, I'll cover adjusted EBITDA, starting with the company as a whole. We generated adjusted EBITDA of $278 million in the quarter, down 3% year over year. Within that number, adjusted EBITDA for the LTL segment was $250 million, down 2%. Our strong yield growth and cost efficiencies in the quarter were mitigated by the operating environment in the form of lower fuel surcharge revenue, tonnage, and pension income. But even with these constraints, the underlying trends in the business continued to gain momentum.

接下來，我將介紹調整後的 EBITDA，先從整個公司開始。本季我們的調整後 EBITDA 為 2.78 億美元，年減 3%。其中，LTL 部門的調整後 EBITDA 為 2.5 億美元，下降 2%。本季我們強勁的收益成長和成本效率因燃油附加費收入、噸位和退休金收入下降等經營環境而受到抑制。但即使有這些限制，業務的潛在趨勢仍持續保持成長動能。

In our European Transportation segment, adjusted EBITDA was $32 million for the quarter, and adjusted EBITDA for the Corporate segment was a loss of $4 million. Returning to the company as a whole, we reported first-quarter operating income of $151 million, up 9% year over year. And we grew net income by 3% to $69 million, representing diluted EPS of $0.58.

在我們的歐洲運輸部門，本季調整後的 EBITDA 為 3,200 萬美元，而企業部門調整後的 EBITDA 虧損 400 萬美元。回顧整個公司，我們報告第一季營業收入為 1.51 億美元，年增 9%。我們的淨收入成長了 3%，達到 6,900 萬美元，攤薄每股收益為 0.58 美元。

On an adjusted basis, our EPS for the quarter was $0.73 compared with $0.81 a year ago. And lastly, we generated $142 million of cash flow from operating activities in the quarter and deployed $191 million of net CapEx.

經調整後，本季我們的每股收益為 0.73 美元，而去年同期為 0.81 美元。最後，我們在本季從營運活動中產生了 1.42 億美元的現金流，並部署了 1.91 億美元的淨資本支出。

Moving to the balance sheet. We ended the quarter with $212 million of cash on hand. Combined with available capacity under our committed borrowing facility, this gave us $811 million of liquidity, and our net debt leverage ratio at quarter end was 2.5 times trailing 12 months of adjusted EBITDA. This was an improvement from 2.9 times in the first quarter of 2024.

轉到資產負債表。本季結束時，我們的現金餘額為 2.12 億美元。加上我們承諾的借款額度下的可用容量，這為我們提供了 8.11 億美元的流動資金，並且我們季度末的淨債務槓桿率為過去 12 個月調整後 EBITDA 的 2.5 倍。這比 2024 年第一季的 2.9 倍有所改善。

In February, we successfully repriced our $1.1 billion term loans and refinanced our ABL revolver into a new secured cash flow facility. This extended the maturity of our revolver to 2030 and stabilized our liquidity with a constant $600 million of availability, while providing long-term capital structure flexibility.

2 月份，我們成功地重新定價了 11 億美元的定期貸款，並將 ABL 循環信貸再融資為新的擔保現金流工具。這將我們的循環信貸期限延長至 2030 年，並透過持續 6 億美元的可用資金來穩定我們的流動性，同時提供長期資本結構靈活性。

While we remain committed to investing in initiatives that support earnings growth, we expect our lower CapEx profile to generate a higher level of free cash flow this year. This dynamic over time, should provide us with greater flexibility to return capital to shareholders.

雖然我們仍然致力於投資支持獲利成長的計劃，但我們預計今年較低的資本支出狀況將產生更高水準的自由現金流。隨著時間的推移，這種動態應該為我們提供更大的靈活性來向股東返還資本。

Recently, we announced an authorization by our Board of Directors for the repurchase of up to $750 million of our common stock. We expect to begin opportunistically repurchasing shares this year with our excess cash.

最近，我們宣布董事會授權回購價值高達 7.5 億美元的普通股。我們預計今年將開始利用多餘的現金適時回購股票。

Now, I'll turn it over to Ali, who will cover our operating results.

現在，我將把時間交給阿里，他將介紹我們的經營績效。

Thank you, Kyle. I'll start with a review of the first-quarter operating results for our LTL segment, where we executed well in a soft freight market. Our total shipments per day were down 5.8% in the quarter compared with the year ago but was an important underlying trend.

謝謝你，凱爾。我將首先回顧我們的零擔運輸部門第一季的經營業績，在疲軟的貨運市場中，我們的表現良好。本季我們的每日總出貨量與去年同期相比下降了 5.8%，但這是一個重要的潛在趨勢。

We generated volume growth in the mid- to high-single digits in our local channel which is a key area of focus for us. We're accelerating our market share gains with these high-margin customers through targeted sales initiatives and the strong value proposition.

我們在本地通路實現了中高個位數的銷售成長，這是我們關注的重點領域。我們正透過有針對性的銷售措施和強大的價值主張來加速這些高利潤客戶的市佔率成長。

With weight per shipment down 1.8% in the quarter, our tonnage per day was down 7.5%, which largely tracked the seasonality. This outperformed the industry as a whole. On a monthly basis, year over year, our January tonnage per day was down 8.5%, February was down 8.1%, and March was down 6%.

本季每批貨物的重量下降了 1.8%，每天的噸位下降了 7.5%，這在很大程度上與季節性有關。這超過了整個行業的表現。按月計算，與去年同期相比，1 月日均運輸量下降 8.5%，2 月下降 8.1%，3 月下降 6%。

Looking just at shipments per day, January was down 6%, February was down 6.1%, and March was down 5.4%. For April, we estimate that tonnage will be down 5.7% from the prior year. Our pricing was robust in the quarter, and again, we delivered above-market yield growth.

僅從每日出貨量來看，1月下降了6%，2月下降了6.1%，3月下降了5.4%。我們預計 4 月份噸位將比去年同期下降 5.7%。本季我們的定價穩健，並且再次實現了高於市場的收益成長。

On a year-over-year basis, we grew yield ex-fuel by 6.9% and revenue per shipment by 5.2%. Importantly, we accelerated our year-over-year yield growth from the fourth quarter as well as on a two-year stack basis. Our revenue per shipment has improved sequentially for nine consecutive quarters, and we expect both revenue per shipment and yield to improve sequentially through the rest of this year with ongoing pricing momentum, driven by our service quality and premium offerings.

與去年同期相比，我們的燃料收益成長了 6.9%，每批貨物的收入成長了 5.2%。重要的是，我們從第四季度開始加速了同比收益率的成長，並以兩年期為基礎。我們的每批貨物收入已連續九個季度環比提高，我們預計，在今年剩餘時間內，隨著我們服務品質和優質產品的推動，價格將持續上漲，每批貨物收入和收益率也將環比提高。

These are all key drivers of our margin expansion opportunity, and we're steadily enhancing them as part of our LTL growth plan. In the first quarter, we sequentially improved our adjusted operating ratio by 30 basis points to 85.9%, which outperformed normal seasonal trends. We outperformed on margin through a mix of yield growth, cost efficiencies, and productivity gains and by leveraging our proprietary technology to enhance the contribution from each of these levers.

這些都是我們利潤擴張機會的關鍵驅動因素，而我們正在作為 LTL 成長計劃的一部分穩步增強它們。第一季度，我們的調整後營業比率連續提高 30 個基點至 85.9%，表現優於正常的季節性趨勢。我們透過提高產量、提高成本效率和生產力，並利用我們的專有技術來增強每個槓桿的貢獻，從而實現了利潤率的優異表現。

Turning to our European business. We delivered solid progress despite a challenging macro environment. We increased revenue by 2% year over year on a constant currency basis for the fifth consecutive quarter of growth. We also grew adjusted EBITDA by 19% sequentially from the fourth quarter, outpacing seasonality, and in some key geographies like the UK, we increased adjusted EBITDA by double digits versus the prior year, showing continued strength.

轉向我們的歐洲業務。儘管宏觀環境充滿挑戰，我們還是取得了穩定進展。以固定匯率計算，我們的營收年增 2%，連續第五個季度實現成長。我們的調整後 EBITDA 較第四季度環比增長 19%，增幅超過季節性因素，在英國等一些主要地區，我們的調整後 EBITDA 較上年同期增長了兩位數，顯示出持續的強勁勢頭。

Another positive indicator is our sales pipeline in Europe, which grew by high-single digits in the quarter. Customers are increasingly responding to our offerings, putting us in a strong position to continue outperforming the market in any macro environment.

另一個積極的指標是我們在歐洲的銷售管道，本季實現了高個位數的成長。客戶對我們產品的回應日益增強，使我們在任何宏觀環境下都能夠繼續超越市場。

Before we go to Q&A, I'd like to summarize the major initiative that powered our first-quarter performance and the ongoing momentum in our LTL business. First, we're continuing to deliver above-market pricing growth underpinned by strong service quality. Our premium service offerings and our success with the local channel are also key to our results, and these initiatives are in the early stages of their potential.

在進入問答環節之前，我想總結一下推動我們第一季業績和 LTL 業務持續發展勢頭的主要舉措。首先，我們將繼續以強大的服務品質支撐高於市場的定價成長。我們的優質服務和我們在本地通路的成功也是我們取得成果的關鍵，這些措施正處於潛力的早期階段。

At the same time, we're optimizing our cost structure by reducing third-party linehaul costs and enhancing productivity. We see a long runway for further efficiency gains across our network. Together, these drivers have created a large margin expansion opportunity, and our execution gives us the ability to capture that opportunity regardless of market conditions.

同時，我們正在透過降低第三方幹線運輸成本和提高生產力來優化我們的成本結構。我們認為，進一步提高整個網路的效率還有很長的路要走。這些驅動因素共同創造了巨大的利潤擴張機會，而我們的執行力使我們能夠無論市場狀況如何都能抓住這個機會。

Now, we'll take your questions. Operator, please open the line for Q&A.

現在，我們來回答大家的提問。接線員，請開通問答專線。

(Operator Instructions) Jon Chappell, Evercore ISI.

（操作員指示）Jon Chappell，Evercore ISI。

Ali, just kind of the obvious first question. In early February, you gave a full-year guide of flat tonnage and 150 basis points of margin improvement. Things have changed quite a bit since then. So if you can just provide an update there? If you're willing.

阿里，這只是一個顯而易見的第一個問題。2月初，你們給了全年預期，即噸位持平，利潤率提高150個基點。從那時起，情況發生了很大變化。那麼您是否可以提供一下更新資訊呢？如果你願意的話。

And as part of that, second quarter, I think typical seasonality somewhere around 250 to 300 basis points of OR improvement, with the April tonnage down 5.7%. What are you kind of anticipating for that sequential move this year?

作為其中的一部分，我認為第二季度典型的季節性因素大約為 OR 改善 250 至 300 個基點，4 月份噸位下降了 5.7%。您對今年的後續舉措有何期待？

Jon, this is Mario. So when you look first at full year, this is a fluid environment and it's tough to predict what the macro is going to do and what the demand environment will do in the back half of the year. But based on our performance year to date, we do expect to deliver 150 basis points of year-on-year margin improvement. And this is even with full-year tonnage being negative on a year-on-year basis, relative to our initial assumption that volumes would be flattish this year. And there's a few reasons for that.

喬恩，這是馬裡奧。因此，當你首先看全年時，這是一個不穩定的環境，很難預測宏觀經濟將會發生什麼以及下半年需求環境將會發生什麼。但根據我們今年迄今的業績，我們確實預期利潤率將年增 150 個基點。儘管我們最初假設今年的貨運量將持平，但全年貨運量與去年同期相比仍為負值。造成這種情況的原因有幾個。

One, is yield performance has been excellent. our pricing initiatives are gaining momentum, they're starting to get ahead of expectations. We talk about the Q2 yield outlook here. We're also managing costs very effectively. I mean when you look at the linehaul in-sourcing, we have accelerated that.

一是收益率表現優異。我們的定價舉措正在獲得發展動力，並開始超越預期。我們在此討論第二季的收益率前景。我們也非常有效地管理成本。我的意思是，當你查看幹線運輸內部採購時，我們已經加速了這一進程。

We're down to 8.8% in the first quarter, a 53% reduction in PT costs, and we expect that to further be reduced in the back half of the year as we continue to drive that initiative. And we're managing our labor very effectively. I'm very proud of how the operating team executed in the first quarter and a soft backdrop where tonnage was down. We were able to improve productivity on a year-on-year basis by 1%.

第一季度，我們的 PT 成本已降至 8.8%，減少了 53%，我們預計，隨著我們繼續推動這項舉措，下半年這一成本將進一步降低。我們正在非常有效地管理我們的勞動力。我對營運團隊在第一季的表現以及噸位下降的疲軟背景感到非常自豪。我們的生產效率年增了 1%。

Now let's say, the macro gets more negative from here and things do soften. And let's say the year is down mid-single digits on tonnage for the full year. We still expect to improve OR by about 100 basis points for the full year. And overall, that would be a really strong year for margin improvement because keep in mind that we have the toughest comp in the industry, we're the only carrier improving operating margins in 2024 as well.

現在假設宏觀經濟從現在開始變得更加負面，情況確實變得軟化。假設全年噸位下降了中個位數。我們仍預計全年 OR 將提高約 100 個基點。總體而言，這將是利潤率大幅提升的一年，因為請記住，我們擁有業內最強勁的競爭對手，我們也是唯一一家在 2024 年提高營業利潤率的營運商。

Now, when you look at the second quarter, we also expect another strong quarter for margin performance. In Q2, a typical seasonality for us is a sequential improvement of 250 to 300 basis points of OR improvement sequentially Q1 to Q2. And again, it's a dynamic environment. So -- but based on what we have seen so far in April and our execution, we do expect to be at or above the high end of that range, outperforming seasonality and that's also driven by our continued strength in yield and effective cost management as well.

現在，當您看第二季時，我們也預期利潤率表現將再創強勁。在第二季度，對我們來說，典型的季節性是 OR 比第一季至第二季連續提高 250 至 300 個基點。再次強調，這是一個動態的環境。所以 - 但根據我們四月份迄今為止看到的情況和我們的執行情況，我們確實預計會達到或超過該範圍的高端，超越季節性，這也是由我們持續強勁的收益和有效的成本管理所推動的。

Great. That's super helpful, Mario. Just a super quick follow up. You mentioned the 30% excess store capacity giving you the leverage to gain share in an upturn. In that scenario that you laid out where maybe tonnage is down mid-single digits, obviously, things get worse. Are there other variable or semi-variable cost levers you can pull to manage that? Would capacity remains at that type of excess level?

偉大的。這非常有幫助，馬裡奧。只是一個超級快速的跟進。您提到 30% 的過剩門市容量讓您在經濟好轉時有能力獲得市場份額。在您所列出的情景中，噸位可能會下降個位數左右，顯然情況會變得更糟。您是否可以利用其他可變或半變動成本槓桿來管理此問題？產能還會維持在這種過剩水準嗎？

Yes. So high level, when you look at real estate capacity in our network, it does come at a low cost. So real estate is usually one of the lowest cost categories in LTL. It's in the low -- let's say, actually low- to mid-single-digit type percentage of revenue is what that cost structure would look like.

是的。因此，從高層次來看，當您查看我們網路中的房地產容量時，它的成本確實很低。因此，房地產通常是 LTL 中成本最低的類別之一。它處於低位——比方說，實際上成本結構佔收入的低到中等個位數百分比。

So our goal is not necessarily to just go fill terminals with freight if they don't operate at a good OR, our goal is to make sure we are onboarding profitable freight based on high quality of service based on new offerings, we're offering customers and being very disciplined in what we are getting into our network.

因此，如果貨運量不佳，我們的目標不一定是僅用貨物填滿貨運站，我們的目標是確保我們能夠基於新產品的高品質服務來運送有利可圖的貨物，我們為客戶提供服務，並對我們進入網路的貨物進行嚴格的管控。

So the way we think about it, even with -- and again, this is if the macro softens from here and demand does deteriorates keep in mind that two-thirds of our costs are variable costs, and then we would manage that like we've done over the last year plus we're going to flex labor, we're going to use our proprietary technology to execute and make sure that we are using a number of hours in the field commensurate with what we're seeing in the volume environment.

因此，我們的想法是，即使——再說一次，如果宏觀經濟從現在開始走弱，需求確實惡化，請記住，我們三分之二的成本是可變成本，然後我們會像去年一樣管理這一點，再加上我們將靈活使用勞動力，我們將使用我們的專有技術來執行，並確保我們在現場使用的時間與我們在批量環境中看到的相稱。

And similarly, on the linehaul side, as we in-source more linehaul, we are actually become more efficient and it's costing us less, even with truckload that is being depressed, when we move freight with our road flex operation, we're paying less per mile than we would with a third-party carrier. We get about 5%, 6% more physical space because we're moving two 28-feet pups as opposed to a 53-feet pup.

同樣，在幹線運輸方面，隨著我們內部採購更多的干線運輸，我們實際上變得更加高效，成本也更低，即使卡車運輸量下降，當我們通過公路彈性運營運輸貨物時，我們每英里支付的費用也比第三方承運商要低。由於我們運送的是兩隻 28 英尺長的小狗，而不是一隻 53 英尺長的小狗，因此我們獲得了大約 5% 到 6% 的額外物理空間。

So that's going to be also further accretive here as we head into the back half of the year. So we're controlling what we can control, and we're doing it very effectively, and we expect to do that regardless of what the environment throws our way.

因此，當我們進入下半年時，這也將進一步增值。因此，我們正在控制我們能夠控制的事情，我們正在非常有效地做到這一點，無論環境如何變化，我們都希望做到這一點。

Fadi Chamoun, BMO Capital Markets.

蒙特利爾銀行資本市場的 Fadi Chamoun。

Just one clarification. Is the 100-basis point improvement in OR this year based on 5% decline in volume? I didn't catch the exact number, if you can repeat. And my question though is I wanted to get your perspective on the volume story for kind of the LTL. There's an estimate that we're down somewhere around mid-teens and volume versus where we were at the peak of cycle. Has this all been a result of the underlying demand weakness from your customer base? Or have you seen significant share losses to other modes, specifically truckload?

只需澄清一點。今年 OR 的 100 個基點改善是基於交易量 5% 的下降嗎？我沒有記清楚確切的數字，請您重複。我的問題是，我想聽聽您對 LTL 數量情況的看法。據估計，與週期高峰期相比，我們的產量和數量已經下降了大約百分之十幾。這一切是否都是因為您的客戶群潛在需求疲軟所造成的？或者您是否看到其他運輸方式（特別是卡車運輸）的市場份額大幅下降？

Fadi, this is Ali. I'll take the first part about the full year margin outlook, and then I'll pass it to Mario to talk about some of the industry volume dynamics. As it relates to the full-year margin outlook, we would expect to deliver 150 basis points of OR improvement this year with volumes down on a year-over-year basis, to the extent that the macro worsens and volumes are sub-seasonal to a greater degree as we move through the year and are down somewhere in that mid-single-digit range for the full year.

法迪，這是阿里。我將首先介紹全年利潤率前景，然後交給馬裡奧來談談一些行業銷售動態。就全年利潤率前景而言，我們預計今年的 OR 將提高 150 個基點，而交易量將同比下降，因為隨著全年宏觀經濟形勢惡化，交易量季節性變化程度加大，全年交易量將下降至中等個位數左右。

As Mario noted, we would still expect to improve OR in that scenario by about 100 basis points for the full year.

正如馬裡奧指出的那樣，我們仍然預計在這種情況下全年的 OR 將提高約 100 個基點。

And Fadi, when you look at the overall industry volume, so if you look at both public and private carriers and you look at where volumes were at pre-COVID to where they are now. They have declined in, call it, in that mid-teens range. We estimate it to be in the 15% to 16% range of decline in demand. And if you look post-COVID actually 2021 was the peak after that, and 2021 was slightly lower than 2018, 2019, right before COVID.

法迪，當你觀察整個產業的運輸量時，如果你同時觀察公共和私人承運人，並觀察疫情之前和現在的運輸量。他們已經下降到，可以這麼說，在十幾歲的範圍內。我們估計需求下降幅度在 15% 至 16% 之間。如果你看一下新冠疫情之後的情況，實際上 2021 年是此後的峰值，而 2021 年的水平略低於新冠疫情之前的 2018 年和 2019 年。

Now, if you look at the trend from 2021 through 2024, there were a lot of supply chain changes and disruptions that happened over that period of time. If you recall, after the peak of COVID, there was a shortage of chips at industrial companies to ship less goods. After that, there was a lot of inventory with retailers where they have to work their way down through it. And after that, there was a decline in industrial demand.

現在，如果你看 2021 年至 2024 年的趨勢，你會發現在此期間發生了許多供應鏈變化和中斷。如果你還記得的話，在新冠疫情高峰之後，工業企業出現了晶片短缺，導致貨物運輸量減少。此後，零售商積壓了大量庫存，他們必須設法將其處理掉。此後，工業需求開始下降。

I mean if you think about it, the ISM manufacturing index has been in the contraction type space below 50 for almost 2.5, 3 years now, and which is commensurate with what we have seen with the freight recession so far. Now a lot of that decline has been driven by underlying demand in software, specifically in the industrial sector here in the US.

我的意思是，如果你仔細想想，ISM 製造業指數已經處於 50 以下的收縮型空間近 2.5 到 3 年了，這與我們迄今為止看到的貨運衰退情況相稱。現在，這種下降很大程度上是由軟體的潛在需求所驅動，特別是美國工業領域的需求。

Now if you look at where workings go from here or the other modes of transportation, on the truckload side, we don't see a lot of direct conversion from LTL to truckload. I always give the example of if you look at how much we -- how much the rates for truckload are about $2 a mile, give or take. Our average length of haul is approximately 850 miles. So a corresponding truckload shipment is about $1,700 to move that shipment.

現在，如果你看這裡的工作進度或其他運輸方式，在卡車運輸方面，我們看不到很多從零擔運輸到卡車運輸的直接轉換。我總是舉這樣的例子：如果你看看我們——卡車的運費大約是每英里 2 美元左右。我們的平均運輸距離約為 850 英里。因此，相應的卡車運輸費用約為 1,700 美元。

When you look at our average revenue per bill last quarter, it was $385. You're talking 4x, above that number, 4x, 5x above that number is where the truckload rates are at, even in the depressed environment they are in.

如果你看一下我們上個季度每張帳單的平均收入，你會發現它是 385 美元。你說的是 4 倍，高於這個數字，4 倍，5 倍，這就是卡車裝載率的水平，即使在他們所處的低迷環境中也是如此。

Now sometimes I get the question, well, Mario if you look at heavy LTL, what's the conversion point? To give you an example, in our network because usually, when you go up on the weight scale, your rate per 100 weight comes down, it's about 15,700 pounds, and that's less than 0.5% of our shipments, it's 20 or 30 basis points of our total shipment count. So there is a conversion, but it's a very small number. And whenever truckload rates recover, you will see that coming back through.

現在有時我會問這樣一個問題，好吧，馬裡奧，如果你看重型 LTL，轉換點是什麼？舉個例子，在我們的網路中，通常情況下，當你的重量增加時，每 100 磅的費率就會下降，大約是 15,700 磅，這還不到我們發貨量的 0.5%，而是我們總發貨量的 20 或 30 個基點。因此存在轉換，但數量非常少。每當卡車裝載率恢復時，你就會看到這種情況再次出現。

Now also sometimes I hear the question but what about truckload consolidation, that has always happened. I mean, companies have used TMSs for decades now. And what TMSs do is that they look at, if you don't have a service requirement and you can combine things into a truckload, you will (inaudible). And with truckload rates being lower, there might be more combinations into truckload happening.

現在我有時也會聽到這樣的問題，但是卡車整合怎麼辦呢？這種情況總是會發生。我的意思是，公司已經使用 TMS 幾十年了。TMS 的角色是，如果你沒有服務需求，你可以把貨物組合成一卡車，那麼你（聽不清楚）。隨著卡車裝載率的降低，可能會出現更多的卡車裝載組合。

But that's, again, when truckload rates goes up, it's going to come back to LTL as well. So we don't see any structural changes in how LTL freight is being moved across the country.

但是，當整車運輸費率上漲時，零擔運輸費率也會恢復。因此，我們沒有看到全國範圍內零擔貨運的運輸方式發生任何結構性變化。

Okay. This is great. And so basically, because that 15%, 16% seem to have underperformed like industrial production quite a bit over that time frame. But you don't think this is a share -- like significant share loss? So at the moment, this is an opportunity potentially for the industry to see that volume come back when things turn the corner from an industrial production perspective.

好的。這太棒了。所以基本上，因為那 15%、16% 似乎在那個時間範圍內表現得比工業生產差很多。但您不認為這是一次重大的股票損失嗎？因此，目前，從工業生產的角度來看，當情況好轉時，這對產業來說是一個潛在的機會，可以看到產量回升。

Yeah. And I tell you Fadi, we're really excited about this outlook because if you think about it, this industry has been capacity constrained for the long time, and you haven't had any meaningful amount of capacity being added even when you look at us and other carriers adding capacity, we are just recycling the capacity from Yellow that used to be in operation a short two years ago.

是的。我告訴你，法迪，我們對這個前景感到非常興奮，因為如果你仔細想想，這個行業長期以來一直受到運力限制，而且即使你看到我們和其他承運商增加了運力，你也沒有任何有意義的運力增加，我們只是在回收兩年前還在運營的 Yellow 的運力。

So whenever the cycle starts turning, and you start seeing more freight going into LTL and truckload in every mode. You see truckload rates going higher, you're going to be the cycle of all cycles in terms of increases in volume, and we don't have enough industry capacity to handle that. So that's a piece that gets us excited in the future.

因此，每當週期開始轉變時，您就會開始看到更多的貨物以各種方式進入零擔和整車運輸。你會看到卡車裝載率不斷上升，就運輸量增加而言，你將會進入一個週期，而我們的產業能力不足以應付這種情況。所以這是一個讓我們對未來感到興奮的作品。

Now keep in mind, we're delivering the kind of numbers we are in a very soft freight market. Now imagine what's going to happen in the context of a cycle where you have 30% excess store capacity. You have an excellent service product. We have a team that is executing really well out there, and you couple that with customers who are happier and happier with the work that we are doing, we get really excited about the next up cycle. Although it's tough see now with all the tariff noise that we're seeing.

請記住，我們提供的數據是處於非常疲軟的貨運市場中。現在想像一下，在商店容量過剩 30% 的周期中會發生什麼。你們的服務產品非常優秀。我們擁有一支執行力非常出色的團隊，再加上客戶對我們所做的工作越來越滿意，我們對下一個上升週期感到非常興奮。儘管我們現在看到的所有關稅噪音都很難看清情況。

Ken Hoexter, Bank of America.

美國銀行的肯‧霍克斯特 (Ken Hoexter)。

Mario, I want to hit on the pricing side, right? Just -- the market doesn't occur in a vacuum, and you've done well. But we're hearing from others that have reported some pretty aggressive kind of pricing story in the market. Can you talk a little bit about what's going on, particularly in the local SMB side?

馬裡奧，我想談談定價方面的問題，對嗎？只是——市場不是憑空產生的，而你已經做得很好了。但我們聽到其他人報道說市場上存在一些相當激進的定價情況。您能否稍微談談目前的情況，特別是當地中小企業方面的情況？

And then, Ali, just to clarify, I'm getting a lot of questions. Just if you're down 7.5% in tonnage in first quarter, trending down, call it, mid-single digits in 2Q. I think just it would be helpful to clarify that comment because does that mean you need just flat performance for the back half of the year to be better than mid-single digits? Does it have to be up to get to -- I just want to understand your comment on getting to the 100 basis points of improvement versus the 150 you were reiterating?

然後，阿里，只是為了澄清一下，我收到了很多問題。如果第一季噸位下降了 7.5%，呈下降趨勢，那麼第二季的噸位降幅可以達到個位數中段。我認為澄清該評論會很有幫助，因為這是否意味著你只需要下半年表現平穩就能好於中等個位數？是否必須達到——我只是想了解您關於達到 100 個基點的改善而不是您重申的 150 個基點的評論？

Again, I'll first start on the overall industry pricing side, and then I'll turn it over to Ali to talk about the volume expectations here and what we're seeing, what we saw in April and beyond. But if you look at the pricing side, we continue to see a very constructive pricing environment for LTLs.

再次，我將首先從整個行業定價方面開始，然後我將交給阿里來談談這裡的銷售預期以及我們所看到的情況，以及我們在四月及以後看到的情況。但如果從定價方面來看，我們仍然會看到 LTL 的定價環境非常有利。

Now for us, specifically, we -- if you look at where we -- our starting point, if you compare our pricing structure to best-in-class, we were approximately when we started our plan a few years ago, about 15 points lower on price. And what we have that delta was driven by their better service product for a longer period of time. And the other half was made out of two-thirds or 5% where accessorial revenue our premium services and then about 2.5 points out of the 15, where from a mix dynamic of small- to medium-sized businesses having a more accretive margin.

現在對我們來說，具體來說，如果你看看我們的起點，如果你將我們的定價結構與一流的定價結構進行比較，我們大約在幾年前開始我們的計劃時，價格低了大約 15 個百分點。我們所看到的這種差異是由他們在較長時期內提供更好的服務產品所推動的。另一半由三分之二或 5% 的附加收入組成，這些收入來自我們的優質服務，而 15 個中的約 2.5 個來自具有更高增值利潤率的中小型企業的混合動態。

So if you think about it over the last few years, we have been able to outperform the market by approximately, call it, 2 to 3 points on price. Now 1 point of that is catching up on the 78-point differential on service driving better price, and we have an eight-year runway to get there. So if you think about it over the last year, this year as well, where pricing, call it, 1 point above what we typically would price at, and we're getting that because of the enhancements of the service product.

因此，如果你回想一下過去幾年，我們就能發現我們的價格已經比市場高出約 2 到 3 個百分點。現在，其中的 1 點正在趕上透過服務推動更優惠價格而實現的 78 點差異，我們還有 8 年的時間來實現這一目標。因此，如果您回顧去年和今年的情況，我們會發現我們的定價比通常定價高出 1 個百分點，而這得益於服務產品的增強。

The second category is around these accessorial. When we started our plan 9% to 10% of revenue were assessorial revenue. Our goal is to get 15 points. And now as of this last quarter, we were at 11 points as a percent of total. So we've got 1 incremental point in pricing, driven by up on-boarding higher-value services that our customers are asking for. These are things like trade shows and retail sold rollouts and (inaudible). So these are all incremental services that the customer asks for and obviously, we build them for it.

第二類是圍繞這些附件的。當我們開始規劃時，9%到10%的收入是附加稅收入。我們的目標是獲得15分。截至上一季度，我們的得分佔總得分的 11%。因此，我們的定價增加了 1 個增量點，這是由客戶要求的更高價值服務的增加所推動的。這些包括貿易展覽和零售銷售推廣等（聽不清楚）。因此，這些都是客戶要求的增量服務，顯然，我們為此建構了這些服務。

And the third component is growing in the small- to medium-sized business segment. In that segment, I'll tell you again -- it's easier said than done. I mean, to grow in that segment, you need excellent service because these are smaller businesses. They might be shipping 5 shipments a week, 10 shipments a week. The shipments represents their brand. They want it to be picked up on time, delivered on time, deliver damage-free every single time.

第三個組成部分是中小型企業領域。在那部分中，我會再告訴你──說起來容易做起來難。我的意思是，為了在這個領域發展，你需要優質的服務，因為這些都是規模較小的企業。他們可能每週運送 5 批貨物，或 10 批貨物。這些貨物代表了他們的品牌。他們希望每次都能準時取貨、準時送達、且完好無損。

And with the improvement in service we've had, we've had a tremendous amount of success in that channel. The second component as well is that we -- if you take a step back, we've added 25% more local sellers to our team over the last few years, and it takes after you hire a local seller, it takes you another full year to get them fully ranked to productivity as well. So this has been obviously in the words for us for a number of years. And our local sales force is truly doing tremendous job out there.

隨著我們服務的改進，我們在該管道取得了巨大的成功。第二個組成部分是，如果你回顧一下，我們在過去幾年中為團隊增加了 25% 的本地賣家，並且在你僱用本地賣家之後，還需要整整一年的時間才能讓他們完全達到生產力水平。顯然，這已經是我們多年來一直說的話了。我們的本地銷售團隊確實做出了巨大的貢獻。

Just to give you an example, in the first quarter, we grew that channel in the mid- to high-single digits from a tonnage perspective, and we accelerated that to double digit here in the month of April. So we're seeing tremendous progress in that segment of business. And we expect that to be the case for the years to come for us to get to the 30% as a percent of total being local accounts.

舉個例子，在第一季度，從噸位角度來看，我們將該通路的成長速度提升到了中高個位數，而在四月份，這一增長速度更是加速到了兩位數。因此，我們看到該業務領域取得了巨大進步。我們預計，未來幾年，本地帳戶佔總帳戶的比例將達到 30%。

And then, Ken, when you think about the volume outlook for the year, if you just look at the first quarter specifically, tonnage was down 7.5 points on a year-over-year basis. However, we did see the trend improve as we move through the quarter. January was down 8.5 points year-over-year. And then March and April were down closer to that 5% to 6% range.

然後，肯，當您考慮今年的銷售前景時，如果您只具體看第一季度，噸位同比下降了 7.5 個百分點。然而，隨著本季的推進，我們確實看到趨勢有所改善。1月年減8.5點。而三月和四月則下降至接近 5% 至 6% 的區間。

Now if you look to the second half of the year, Ken, we do have easier comps versus the first half of the year. So volume should gradually improve as we move through the year given that comp dynamic and also following normal seasonality.

現在，肯，如果你展望今年下半年，你會發現與上半年相比，我們的業績確實更容易比較。因此，考慮到公司動態以及正常的季節性，隨著時間的推移，交易量應該會逐漸改善。

Now to the extent that we see the macro soften in the back half of the year and volumes remain down mid-single digits in the back half, even against those easier comps, that would be more reflective of a sub-seasonal demand environment in the back half of the year. We would still expect to deliver 100 basis points of OR improvement in that scenario.

現在，我們看到下半年宏觀經濟走軟，即使與那些更容易比較的企業相比，下半年的銷量仍下降了中等個位數，這更反映了下半年的需求環境低於季節性。在這種情況下，我們仍然希望實現 100 個基點的 OR 改進。

So regardless of how we look at it, we're going to deliver a very strong year of margin improvement this year on top of being the only LTL carrier to improve margins in 2024 as well.

因此，無論我們如何看待它，我們今年的利潤率都將大幅提升，並且我們將成為唯一一家在 2024 年提高利潤率的零擔貨運承運商。

Helpful clarification. And then just for a follow up, real quick one on service Mario. Claims went up a touch, I guess, 0.2% to 0.3%. Is there anything, I guess, on since you're mentioning service is so important. Is there anything on that or led to that. And Ali in that volume outlook, is that including the tariff kind of impact in that return to normality? Or do you see any kind of air pocket coming from that?

有幫助的澄清。然後只是為了跟進，關於服務馬裡奧的真正快速的跟進。我估計索賠金額略有上升，0.2% 至 0.3%。既然您提到服務如此重要，我想還有什麼好說的嗎？有什麼與此有關或導致此情況的嗎？阿里在銷售展望中，是否包括關稅對恢復正常的影響？或者您是否看過從那裡冒出的氣穴？

Again, on the damage claims ratio, so it's been relatively consistent with where we've been. We were in the 0.2% range for the quarter, but we just cobbed around up to the 0.3%. Now when you look at the underlying damages in the quarter, so that's the KPI when we deliver a pallet to a customer, they can take an exception of a damage. So it's a real-time KPI of how our damages are doing, and they have been the best of any other quarter in the company's history in the first quarter.

再次，就損害索賠率而言，它與我們目前的狀況相對一致。本季我們的成長率處於 0.2% 的範圍內，但我們剛剛上升到 0.3%。現在，當您查看本季度的潛在損害時，這就是當我們將托盤交付給客戶時的 KPI，他們可以對損害進行例外處理。因此，這是我們損失情況的即時關鍵績效指標 (KPI)，第一季的損失情況是公司歷史上最好的。

As you know, we've made tremendous progress in improving our quality of service. And it's not going to be linear. It took best-in-class 10 years ago from a 0.7% to 8.1% claims ratio and took us a few years ago from a higher number to where we are now. And our goal is to get to having no claims in our network. That's the ultimate goal, and we're making tremendous progress on that front.

如您所知，我們在提高服務品質方面取得了巨大進步。而且它不會是線性的。10 年前，我們的索賠率從 0.7% 上升到了 8.1%，而幾年前，我們的索賠率又從更高的水平上升到了現在的水平。我們的目標是實現網路中零索賠。這是最終目標，我們在這方面取得了巨大進展。

And Ken, on the volume outlook for the second half. Obviously, there's a lot of uncertainty. And so it's difficult to predict the impact of the tariffs. But generally, the way you should think about it is the 150 reflects what we've been seeing through the first four months of the year. To the extent, again, the macro gets softer, tariffs start to have an impact on the broader economy, trends are more sub-seasonal for us from a volume perspective.

肯，談談下半年的銷售展望。顯然，存在著許多不確定性。因此很難預測關稅的影響。但一般來說，你應該這樣想：150 反映了我們今年前四個月所看到的情況。在某種程度上，宏觀經濟再次變得疲軟，關稅開始對整體經濟產生影響，從數量角度來看，趨勢對我們來說更加不具季節性。

Again, that would be more supportive of the volumes being down in that mid-single digit for the range for the year and closer to about 100 basis points from a margin improvement perspective.

再次，這將更有利於全年交易量下降至中等個位數，從利潤率提高的角度來看，交易量下降幅度接近 100 個基點。

Scott Group, Wolfe Research.

斯科特集團、沃爾夫研究公司。

Mario, I think you just said you want to get local to 30% of the revenue. Where is it today? And is there any way to just think about like what the margin is on -- the margin premium on local versus national? And how -- is that gap widening or shrinking today?

馬裡奧，我想你剛才說過你想讓本地收入佔 30%。今天它在哪裡？有什麼方法可以考慮一下利潤率是多少——本地利潤率與全國利潤率的溢價是多少？那麼，如今這一差距是擴大了還是縮小了呢？

Yeah. So we are today when we started our plans, Scott, we were at about 20% of total was the revenue of local. We're now up to the low- to mid-20% range. And our goal, obviously, to keep on making meaningful progress. As I mentioned earlier, we've added about 2,500 new local customers in the first quarter, just to kind of give you an idea on the cadence.

是的。所以，斯科特，當我們今天開始我們的計劃時，我們的總收入中大約有 20% 是來自當地的。現在我們已經達到了 20% 的低點到中位數範圍。我們的目標顯然是繼續取得有意義的進展。正如我之前提到的，我們在第一季增加了大約 2,500 名新的本地客戶，這只是讓您大致了解節奏。

And again, we accelerated the tonnage growth in April in that channel to double digit compared to mid- to high-single digit in the first quarter. Now if you look at pricing differential, the margin differential between that channel and the larger accounts have been fairly consistent through the year.

與第一季的中高個位數成長相比，我們四月份該通路的噸位成長再次加速至兩位數。現在，如果您查看價格差異，該管道和較大帳戶之間的利潤差異全年都相當穩定。

Typically, we price that channel based on an annual price that goes through a normal GRI process, so say once a year typically. And the margin spread has been relatively consistent.

通常，我們會根據經過正常 GRI 流程的年度價格對該通路進行定價，通常每年一次。且利潤率差距一直比較穩定。

And then maybe just a quick one, Ali. The tonnage down 5.7% in April. How is that just on a season like versus seasonality? And then if there's any way you could say I think you said 300 basis points of sequential improvement in margin for the quarter. What's the volume assumption for the quarter assumed in there?

然後也許只是一個快速的問題，阿里。4月噸位下降5.7%。這與季節和季節性有什麼關係？然後，如果您能說的話，我想您說過本季利潤率連續提高了 300 個基點。其中假設的季度銷售量是多少？

Sure, Scott. So again, April was down 5.7% on a year-over-year basis. And that was largely in line with normal seasonality relative to the month of March. And as I noted, we did see volume trends improve throughout Q1 on a year-over-year basis. And that momentum carried into the month of April.

當然，斯科特。因此，4 月年減 5.7%。這與三月的正常季節性基本一致。正如我所指出的，我們確實看到第一季的銷售趨勢較去年同期有所改善。這種勢頭一直延續到四月。

Now, when you think about Q2 as a whole, obviously, a tough environment to predict. But if you look at how tonnage has historically played out throughout the second quarter and apply those trends through the rest of Q2. That would imply full quarter tonnage being down a similar range to the month of April on a year-over-year basis.

現在，當你考慮整個第二季時，顯然這是一個難以預測的環境。但如果你觀察第二季噸位的歷史變化，並將這些趨勢應用到第二季的剩餘時間。這意味著本季的貨運量與去年同期相比將出現與 4 月類似的下降幅度。

Chris Wetherbee, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的克里斯‧韋瑟比。

So maybe just a follow up on that. I know it's difficult, but as you sort of look in talk to the customers in the portfolio to get a sense of maybe what the tariff impact could be, I guess, relative to what that normal seasonality is for 2Q. Have you picked up anything meaningful that sort of tells you that you can perform close to that level? Or maybe there's going to be sort of expected underperformance in the month of May potentially with the bounce back in June.

所以也許只是對此進行跟進。我知道這很困難，但是當你與投資組合中的客戶交談時，你可能會了解到關稅的影響可能是什麼，我想，這是相對於第二季度的正常季節性而言的。您是否獲得任何有意義的資訊來告訴您，您的表現可以接近該水平？或者可能 5 月的表現會低於預期，但 6 月可能會出現反彈。

If there's any kind of color or clarity you've gotten from customers, it would be great to hear.

如果您從客戶那裡得到了任何關於顏色或清晰度的回饋，我們將非常高興。

Yeah, you got it, Chris. Well, if you look at it, it's tough to tell because these are unprecedented times, and it's tough to tell what those tariffs will have in terms of impact on what domestic trade moves would look like. Obviously, as an LTL carrier, we're more exposed to internal moves within the country and not external through to internal imports as a whole.

是的，你明白了，克里斯。嗯，如果你看一下，你會發現這很難說，因為這是前所未有的時期，很難說這些關稅會對國內貿易走勢產生什麼影響。顯然，作為一家零擔運輸承運商，我們更關注的是國內運輸，而不是整個國內進口的外部運輸。

Now that said, we do a survey with our customers every quarter to get their feedback on what they are hearing. And we just finished the end of Q1 survey. And what we heard at the -- towards call it the end of April is that customers are not expecting -- the majority of customers are expecting to see a flattish demand in the back half as opposed to what they were one quarter ago where the majority were expecting an acceleration of demand in the back half.

話雖如此，我們每季都會對客戶進行調查，以獲得他們對所聽到內容的回饋。我們剛剛完成了第一季的調查。我們在四月底聽到的消息是，大多數客戶預計下半年需求將持平，而一個季度前的情況則不同，當時大多數客戶預計下半年需求將加速成長。

So we're getting a more cautious tone from the customers. We did see both in Q1 and in April the industrials slightly outperformed the retail segment. And keep in mind, that's more than two-thirds of our freight is industrial freight and that outperformed slightly the retail sector there as well.

因此，我們從客戶那裡聽到了更謹慎的聲音。我們確實看到，第一季和四月工業板塊的表現略優於零售板塊。請記住，我們的貨運中有超過三分之二是工業貨運，而且其表現也略優於零售業。

Now looking forward, it's very tough to predict what's going to happen. And I'll give you just some perspective. We haven't heard a lot of pull forwards. So we haven't seen that in meaningful ways from customers. But customers generally are falling in three camps.

現在展望未來，很難預測會發生什麼。我僅給你一些觀點。我們還沒有聽到太多關於前進的消息。所以我們還沒有從客戶身上看到這一點。但顧客整體分為三類。

Some customers are in a wait-and-see type pattern. Some customers are still importing goods as they always have. Some customers that pull-forward. And then some customers are re-designing their supply chain to get more product sourced or built locally.

有些顧客處於觀望狀態。一些客戶仍在像往常一樣進口貨物。一些向前拉的顧客。然後，一些客戶正在重新設計他們的供應鏈，以獲得更多本地採購或生產的產品。

I mean just to give you an example, I recently met with a large customer, an industrial company, that produces product in the US and Mexico and Canada. And now they are moving more of the manufacturing here to Texas in the US. And we used to only handle the outbound freight out of that distribution facility, now we're handling both inbound and outbound freight where the inbounds are for parts and raw materials and then the outbound for the finished product all the way to the customer.

舉個例子，我最近會見了一位大客戶，一家工業公司，該公司在美國、墨西哥和加拿大生產產品。現在他們正在將更多的製造業轉移到美國德克薩斯州。我們以前只處理從配送中心發出來的貨物，現在我們同時處理入站和出站的貨物，入站的是零件和原材料，出站的是成品，一直到客戶手中。

But -- so we're seeing a wide variety of behaviors from customers. And it's tough to predict what the next few months will do or what the back half will do based on these dynamics.

但是——我們看到客戶的行為多種多樣。基於這些動態，很難預測未來幾個月或下半年會發生什麼。

Now if you look at the month of April, as Ali said, that was in line with seasonality for us, January was down 8.4%, February was down about 8%, March was down about 6%, April here is down 5.7%. And our comps do get easier as we head into the back half of the year. So we'll see what the market has in store, but we're working with our customers closely and our goal is to provide solutions for them whenever they need them.

現在，如果你看一下四月份，正如阿里所說，這對我們來說是符合季節性的，一月份下降了 8.4%，二月份下降了約 8%，三月下降了約 6%，四月份下降了 5.7%。隨著我們進入下半年，我們的業績確實變得更加容易。因此，我們會觀察市場狀況，但我們正在與客戶密切合作，我們的目標是隨時為他們提供解決方案。

Okay. That's helpful. I appreciate the color there. And a quick follow up, you mentioned in the prepared remarks the buyback. Obviously, you guys have been focused, I think, also on deleveraging over time, but maybe with where the stock is, become a bit more attractive. Can you talk a bit about what the opportunity you might see kind of capital available for buybacks as we go through 2025?

好的。這很有幫助。我很欣賞那裡的色彩。再快速跟進一下，您在準備好的評論中提到了回購。顯然，我認為你們也一直致力於隨著時間的推移去槓桿，但也許隨著股票的現狀，會變得更有吸引力。您能否談談，到 2025 年，您可能會看到哪些類型的資本可用於回購？

Yeah, Chris, when you think about the buybacks, so we had the observation come out at the end of the first quarter. We had a $750 million authorization. And when you think about capital allocation for us, we're looking in three ways, right? Our focus is going to be continuing to invest organically and that's CapEx for the business.

是的，克里斯，當你考慮回購時，我們在第一季末就得出了觀察結果。我們獲得了7.5億美元的授權。當您考慮我們的資本配置時，我們會從三個方面考慮，對嗎？我們的重點是繼續進行有機投資，這就是業務的資本支出。

Then we're going to look to continue to delever and get to our long-term goal of 1 times to 2 times. And then when you think about excess cash, that authorization gives us the flexibility to seek the highest return on capital for our shareholders. And that's really what we're looking at. So there's no specific time frame on that repurchase and nor a specific amount, but we'll be opportunistic with what the market affords us.

然後，我們將尋求繼續去槓桿，實現 1 倍到 2 倍的長期目標。然後，當您考慮過剩現金時，該授權使我們能夠靈活地為股東尋求最高的資本回報。這確實就是我們所關注的。因此，回購沒有具體的時間框架，也沒有特定的金額，但我們會根據市場情況靈活應對。

(technical difficulty) Jason, is your line on mute?

（技術難題）傑森，你的線路靜音了嗎？

No. I am here. Wanted to ask two quick questions. One, going back to the pricing side, if we remove the push into local and premium services, how would the contractual renewals look on a sequential basis?

不。我在這裡。想問兩個簡單的問題。首先，回到定價方面，如果我們取消對本地和優質服務的推動，合約續約的順序將會如何？

And the second question. We've heard a bunch about Amazon maybe pushing back a little bit into the LTL space going back in their fulfillment centers. UPS has announced they're getting back in the ground with rate. How much of a threat to the industry going forward is that? Or is this just around the edges?

第二個問題。我們聽到很多關於亞馬遜可能會稍微向 LTL 領域挺進並返回其配送中心的消息。UPS 宣布將恢復原價。這對於該產業未來的發展有多大的威脅？或者這只是邊緣問題？

Yes. It's Kyle. I'll start and then I'll hand back to Mario. So I think to directly address your question, when you think about renewals for us, renewals were up mid- to high-single-digit range for the quarter. And that was an acceleration.

是的。是凱爾。我先開始，然後交還給馬裡奧。因此，我想直接回答您的問題，當您考慮我們的續約時，本季的續約量增加了中高個位數。這是一種加速。

And it reflects the confidence we have in delivering above market yield performance through the year. And when you think about renewals, you really have to look at the flow through from those renewals. And in the first quarter, yield was up 6.9%, again reflecting the strong renewals and rev per ship was up 5.2% with the delta being weight per shipment. So a very strong showing for us there.

這也反映了我們對全年實現高於市場收益表現的信心。當您考慮續約時，您確實必須考慮這些續約所帶來的流程。第一季度，收益率上漲了 6.9%，再次反映了強勁的續約，每艘船的周轉率上漲了 5.2%，其中增量為每批貨物的重量。因此，我們在那裡表現得非常出色。

And when you think about how those renewals will impact us here in the quarter, we think for Q2, yield ex-fuel is going to improve sequentially from the first quarter. and we expect to see it through the rest of the year. So on a year-over-year basis, we expect Q2 yield ex-fuel to be up in a similar range year-over-year basis to Q1, and that assumes a similar weight per shipment dynamic on a year-over-year basis in Q2 versus Q1.

當您考慮這些續約將如何影響我們本季時，我們認為第二季的燃料收益將比第一季較去年同期增加。我們期望它能在今年餘下的時間裡繼續存在。因此，與去年同期相比，我們預計第二季度燃料油產量將與第一季同比上漲相似，並假設第二季度與第一季相比每批貨物的重量同比變化相似。

And on the threats Jason, for potential threats with UPS and Amazon. We don't see them as being material threats. And for a few reasons, one starting with UPS, and as you know, they are targeting very lightweight shipments with the service, typically a few hundred pounds, compared that to our average weight per shipment is about 1,350 pounds. They also are much more -- it's more parcel-like it's going into residences and inside deliveries, which are typically things we don't do a lot of in traditional LTL. And they also -- it's not a new offering for them.

傑森，關於 UPS 和亞馬遜的潛在威脅。我們並不認為它們構成實質威脅。原因有幾個，首先是 UPS，如你所知，他們服務的目標是運送重量非常輕的貨物，通常只有幾百磅，而我們每批貨物的平均重量約為 1,350 磅。它們也更像包裹，可以進入住宅並進行室內配送，而這些通常是我們在傳統 LTL 中不經常做的事情。而且這對他們來說也不是什麼新產品。

I mean they used to offer that for a long time. And usually, when you start getting into this heavy parcel type shipping, it's a non-conveyable product, so it doesn't operate well in a parcel sortation facility. So it's much harder for them to execute on it.

我的意思是他們很久以前就提供過這種服務。通常，當您開始進行這種重型包裹類型的運輸時，它是一種不可傳送的產品，因此在包裹分類設施中無法很好地運作。因此，他們執行起來就困難得多。

And I'll tell you the last thing is that they exited the LTL business a few years ago. So I can see that as being a meaningful impact on our industry in any way. For the large retailer you mentioned, it's similar kind of feedback there. I mean today, they have a lower exposure to LTL than other modes of transportation. They move much more parcel, they move much more truckload and that could be if they were in-sourcing that could be a threat to these industries.

我要告訴你的最後一件事是，他們幾年前就退出了零擔業務。因此我認為這無論如何都會對我們的行業產生有意義的影響。對於您提到的大型零售商，那裡也有類似的回饋。我的意思是，今天他們對零擔運輸的接觸比對其他運輸方式的接觸要低。他們運送更多的包裹，運送更多的卡車，如果他們進行內部採購，可能會對這些行業構成威脅。

But in LTL, they are approximately 2% of the overall LTL industry spend. For us specifically, they're less than 0.5 point of our overall volume and shipments. We don't do a lot of business there. And you're seeing something similar from them, that you saw from large retailers whenever they have excess capacity between moves going between large distribution facilities, they're going to try to put more partial truckload type freight moving into that.

但在零擔運輸方面，它們約佔零擔運輸業整體支出的 2%。具體來說，對我們來說，它們占我們整體銷售量和出貨量的不到 0.5 個百分點。我們在那裡的生意不多。你也可以從他們身上看到類似的東西，大型零售商也一樣，每當他們在大型配送設施之間運輸時擁有過剩的運力時，他們就會嘗試將更多的部分整車類型的貨物運送到那裡。

So again, we don't expect it currently, based on what we're seeing, we don't expect them to be a threat either, but we're closely obviously monitoring as well.

所以，根據我們所看到的情況，我們目前並不認為它們會構成威脅，但我們顯然也在密切監視。

That makes sense. I appreciate the time and color as always.

這很有道理。我一如既往地欣賞時間和色彩。

Operator, can we take the next question?

接線員，我們可以回答下一個問題嗎？

Jordan Alliger, Goldman Sachs.

喬丹·阿利格，高盛。

More of a curiosity question sort of following on, it seems like pricing has been the main -- or one of the main topics of conversation these past few weeks and months and I guess my question is in light of what you said about contractual renewals, mid- to high single digits. Why would a shipper agree to price increases like that in the environment we're in?

這更像是一個好奇的問題，似乎定價是過去幾週和幾個月來討論的主要話題之一，我想我的問題是根據你所說的合約續簽，中高個位數。在我們所處的環境下，托運人為何會同意這樣的價格上漲？

Well, a lot of it, Jordan, goes back to the quality of service that we are offering because keep in mind with where our service is at, we are still -- and when we started, currently we're about call it 1 points or so lower on overall yield when you normalize for weight per shipment and length of haul to best-in-class. So we don't have a big differential there. But it's a combination of a few things.

嗯，喬丹，這在很大程度上要歸結於我們提供的服務質量，因為請記住我們的服務水平，我們仍然 - 當我們開始時，如果將每批貨物的重量和運輸距離標準化為最佳水平，那麼我們的總收益率大約會低 1 個百分點左右。所以我們在這方面沒有太大的差異。但它是多種因素的結合。

One, is when you deliver better service, you obviously can get a higher -- the customers do understand that we are investing in our network, and it is an inflationary business where you have higher wages, you have more expense for equipment, we're investing in service centers. And that obviously leads to -- we need to price that in a capacity-constrained industry, where for us to provide that level of service they understand that these investments need to be made.

一是，當你提供更好的服務時，你顯然可以獲得更高的收益——客戶確實明白我們正在投資我們的網絡，這是一個通貨膨脹的行業，你需要更高的工資，你需要更多的設備費用，我們正在投資服務中心。這顯然導致——我們需要在產能受限的行業中對此進行定價，為了提供這種水準的服務，他們明白需要進行這些投資。

The second component of that is also a component of mix. So when you go back to it, I mean every customer has freight that has to move on time, has to move the damage-free every single time, and they're willing to pay more for that freight to move.

其中的第二個組成部分也是混合的組成部分。所以當你回過頭來看這個問題時，我的意思是每個客戶的貨物都必須按時運輸，每次都必須無損壞地運輸，而且他們願意為運輸這些貨物支付更多的費用。

And we're seeing higher success in being able to onboard that type of freight. Then you couple that with the local business that we are on-boarding -- we're very service sensitive to these customers and effectively we're able to provide a great service product for them as well. So a lot of it ties back to that kind of dynamic.

我們看到，裝載此類貨物的成功率越來越高。然後將其與我們正在進行的本地業務結合起來——我們對這些客戶的服務非常敏感，並且我們能夠有效地為他們提供優質的服務產品。所以很多事情都與這種動態有關。

And we do have a network that covers obviously, the entire country. And we have one of the fastest networks in the industry. I believe the only faster network is FedEx Premium compared to (technical difficulty) And customers also want (inaudible), they want capacity, they want speed, and we can provide all of these things for them.

我們確實有一個覆蓋整個國家的網路。我們的網路是業界最快的網路之一。我相信與（技術難度）相比，唯一更快的網路是 FedEx Premium，而且客戶還想要（聽不清楚），他們想要容量，他們想要速度，我們可以為他們提供所有這些東西。

Okay. Thanks.

好的。謝謝。

Brian Ossenbeck, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的 Brian Ossenbeck。

So just coming back to the pricing environment, Kyle you gave a little bit of color on the second quarter, but maybe if you can wind that out to the scenarios you've been talking about in the back half of the year. What do you expect yield ex-fuel or even premium revenue per shipment in the back half in the 150 and 100 basis point scenario since you already gave the view on there for tonnage?

回到定價環境，凱爾，你對第二季的情況做了一些描述，但也許你可以把它延伸到你在下半年談到的情景。既然您已經就噸位給出了看法，那麼您預計在 150 和 100 個基點情境下，下半年每批貨物的燃料收益或保費收入會是多少？

So when you think about the broader yield, I mean, I think as we talk about, we're seeing strong contract renewals as we talked about mid-, high-single-digit range. And our Q2 outlook being in line with Q1 up on a year-over-year basis. When you think about the rest of the year, we're seeing some of these favorable trends so far this year. We expect these to continue.

因此，當您考慮更廣泛的收益率時，我的意思是，我認為正如我們所談論的，我們看到了強勁的合約續約，正如我們所談論的中高個位數範圍。我們對第二季的展望與第一季持平，且較去年同期有所上升。當你考慮今年剩餘的時間時，我們今年到目前為止看到了一些有利的趨勢。我們預計這種情況將會持續下去。

You got to keep in mind, too, a fair amount of capacity has exited the market. compared to where we were a few years ago. And for the broader industry, we typically see pricing 100 to 200 basis points above cost inflation, and our expectation is to outperform the rest of industry, driven by a lot of the levers Mario talked about, whether it's growing small medium businesses, or increasing our accessorial.

你還必須記住，相當一部分產能已經退出市場了。與幾年前相比。對於更廣泛的行業而言，我們通常看到定價高出成本通膨 100 到 200 個基點，我們期望在 Mario 談到的許多槓桿的推動下超越其他行業，無論是發展中小型企業，還是增加我們的附件。

So we expect a strong pricing environment for the industry, and we think we can deliver above-market yield growth for our business.

因此，我們預計該行業將擁有強勁的定價環境，並且我們認為我們可以為我們的業務實現高於市場的收益成長。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Stephanie Moore, Jefferies.

史蒂芬妮摩爾，傑富瑞集團。

Maybe we could -- if you wanted to provide an update on some of the recently opened or very recent in the last year or so of the new facilities that you've opened. How those are progressing? Maybe from a volume standpoint, OR standpoint, any metrics you're willing to provide?

也許我們可以—如果您想提供有關最近開業或去年左右開業的一些新設施的最新資訊。進展如何？也許從數量的角度，或者從角度來看，您願意提供任何指標嗎？

Stephanie, this is Ali. So the sites are all performing very well. And as we noted, they were accretive to OR in 2024. And we would expect them to be accretive this year as well, and that's going to contribute to the strong year of margin improvement that we expect to deliver.

史蒂芬妮，這是阿里。所以這些網站的表現都非常好。正如我們所指出的，它們將在 2024 年為 OR 帶來增值。我們預計今年的利潤率也會有所成長，這將有助於我們預期今年利潤率的強勁提升。

Just to put it in perspective, if you think about all of the sites that we've opened up over the last 12 months, we -- actually at less than 200 that head count additions across all of those sites as most of these locations are in markets where we already have a strong presence in the markets where we have brought new locations online, we've seen meaningful improvements from a cost efficiency perspective across both pickup and delivery as well as linehaul density.

為了更清楚地說明這一點，如果你想想我們在過去 12 個月內開設的所有站點，實際上我們在所有這些站點上增加的員工人數不到 200 人，因為這些站點中的大多數都位於我們已經在市場上佔有重要地位的市場中，在我們開設新站點的市場中，我們從提貨和送貨以及乾線運輸密度的成本改善角度看到了有意義的成本。

And so all of the openings are either meeting or exceeding our expectations. And everything we've seen so far confirms our confidence in the significant accretion potential we're going to see from these sites, both near term and medium to long term.

所以所有的開幕式都達到或超出了我們的預期。到目前為止，我們所看到的一切都證實了我們的信心，即我們將在這些地點看到巨大的吸積潛力，無論是短期還是中長期。

And I guess just a follow up on that. In terms of the revenue that's being generated from those sites and kind of the customers you're pulling from, is it a good mix of existing customers that have just kind of shifted to these new sites? Or have you been able to kind of bring in new customers as well?

我想這只是對此的一個跟進。就這些網站產生的收入和您所吸引的客戶而言，這些收入是否是剛轉移到這些新網站的現有客戶的良好組合？或者您也能夠吸引新客戶？

So certainly, for us and the new sites, as Ali said, because they operate in existing markets where we already had a presence except for a handful of them. We -- it's predominantly existing customers that are moving through those sites. And -- but what we're seeing is we're seeing a lower cost to serve and higher efficiency. And we're also seeing better service.

所以對於我們和新網站來說當然如此，正如阿里所說，因為它們在現有市場中運營，除了少數市場外，我們已經在這些市場佔有一席之地。我們－主要是現有客戶正在透過這些網站進行存取。而且——但我們看到的是服務成本降低，效率提高。我們也看到了更好的服務。

I mean to give you an example, and I know we spoke about it in prior calls. But if you look at a market like Nashville, where we used to service north of Nashville and Goodlettsville, from our site southeast of Nashville. We start to dispatch drivers in our North to get to our customer pickup and deliveries then to be able to come back in our south to get to the terminal. Now we have a terminal in Goodlettsville, where some of our drivers are driving 5, 10 minutes to get to the customer as opposed to the alternative.

我想給你舉個例子，我知道我們在之前的通話中討論過這個。但是如果你看看像納許維爾這樣的市場，我們曾經在納許維爾和古德利茨維爾北部提供服務，而我們的站點位於納許維爾東南部。我們開始派遣司機前往北部地區為客戶提貨和送貨，然後再返回南部地區到達終點站。現在我們在古德利茨維爾有一個終點站，與其他地點不同，我們的一些司機只需開車 5 到 10 分鐘就能到達客戶那裡。

If you at a market like Brooklyn, New York, where you have a small service centers. So part of Brooklyn, were being serviced from Long Island and now be having one of the largest -- actually the largest service center in the Brooklyn market. Now we can service all the zip codes that are close to the service center, from the service center, improving pickup and delivery efficiency across the board.

如果你在紐約布魯克林這樣的市場，那裡有一個小型服務中心。布魯克林的部分地區由長島提供服務，現在我們擁有布魯克林市場最大的服務中心之一——實際上是最大的服務中心。現在我們可以從服務中心為所有靠近服務中心的郵遞區號提供服務，從而全面提高取貨和送貨效率。

So what we have seen is predominantly existing to begin with, and then we have onboard with new customers that are now closer to our service center in some cases. But in all of that, we're very disciplined in what we on board. The way we think about it, ultimately, there's a fixed amount of capacity.

因此，我們所看到的主要是現有的客戶，然後我們在某些​​情況下吸收了現在距離我們服務中心更近的新客戶。但在所有這些事情中，我們對所做的事情都非常嚴謹。我們認為，最終容量是固定的。

In LTL, if you want to improve margin, you want to improve profits, you've got to onboard profitable freight. You've got to make sure that you are pricing the freight appropriately and working with your customers because they also customers they know that when the market turns, there won't be enough capacity. They want to have good relationships.

在零擔運輸中，如果您想提高利潤率，您想提高利潤，您必須加入有利可圖的貨運。您必須確保對運費進行合理定價並與客戶合作，因為他們也是客戶，他們知道當市場轉變時，運能將不夠。他們希望擁有良好的關係。

They want to a great service. They want to make sure that you have coverage and want to make sure that you have capacity. And we can provide all of these things. So existing markets are having a similar dynamic that we see in -- or in the new service centers are having a similar dynamic than what we see in existing markets and with the incremental benefit of higher efficiency.

他們想要優質的服務。他們想確保你有保障，並希望確保你有能力。我們可以提供所有這些東西。因此，現有市場具有與我們在現有市場中看到的類似的動態 - 或者在新服務中心具有與我們在現有市場中看到的類似的動態，並且具有更高效率的增量效益。

Ravi Shanker, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的拉維·尚克（Ravi Shanker）。

(inaudible) One is kind of noted on your comments on CapEx, but you are seeing some of your peers kind of pull down their CapEx plans and pulled back a little bit, is that an opportunity or a risk for you guys? Kind of what are your thoughts on that?

（聽不清楚）有人注意到您對資本支出的評論，但您看到一些同行降低了他們的資本支出計劃並稍微縮減了一點，這對您來說是機會還是風險？您對此有何看法？

And second, Mario, I think you said you have a software that tells you what volumes are going to do before it happens, which sounds like the closest thing to a crystal ball to me. So can you just explain to us how exactly your crystal ball works, how much advanced notice you have, et cetera? And just a little more detail there just would be helpful.

其次，馬裡奧，我想你說過你有一個軟體，可以在事情發生之前告訴你交易量會是多少，這對我來說聽起來就像是最接近水晶球的東西。那麼，您能否向我們解釋一下您的水晶球究竟是如何運作的，您有多少提前通知權等等？只要再多一點細節就會很有幫助。

Ravi, I'll start with CapEx. So when you think about CapEx for 2025, we do expect LTL CapEx as a percent of revenue to moderate a couple of points when we saw in 2024. And that's contemplated in our overall guide for the year. So if you think about last year, we were 14.6% of revenue in 2024 but that contemplated a couple of significant one time in nature expenditure.

拉維，我將從資本支出開始。因此，當您考慮 2025 年的資本支出時，我們確實預期 LTL 資本支出佔收入的百分比將比 2024 年下降幾個點。這是我們今年總體指南中考慮到的。因此，如果你回想去年，我們 2024 年的收入為 14.6%，但其中考慮到了幾項重大的一次性自然支出。

So obviously, there's a fair amount of investments tied to bring in the new service centers online. That was really a one-time spend. And if you think about last year, we also had a significant amount of spend, relative to the (inaudible) and then obviously aided in the in-sourcing of our linehaul effort, you can see the fleet age is down to four years now.

顯然，需要投入大量資金來建立新的服務中心。這確實是一次性支出。如果你回想去年，我們也花費了大量資金，相對於（聽不清楚），這顯然有助於我們進行幹線運輸工作的內部採購，你可以看到車隊的年齡現在已經下降到四年了。

But if you look to this year and beyond, our expectation is for LTL cash as a percent of revenue to moderate. So this year, you're probably going to moderate 1 point or 2 from the 2024 levels. and that's contemplated in our current guide. And if you think beyond this year, that CapEx is going to further moderate.

但如果展望今年及以後，我們預計 LTL 現金佔收入的百分比將會放緩。因此，今年，您可能會從 2024 年的水平下降 1 點或 2 點。這已在我們的當前指南中進行了考慮。如果你考慮今年以後，資本支出將進一步放緩。

So our long-term guidance range is in the 8% to 12% range, we're probably somewhere in the midpoint of that. And look, if there is a severe contraction in the market, we can always adjust and cut back in certain areas. But we will look at CapEx as a long-term investment (inaudible). When we're buying a [track], we're buying a 10-year asset. I mean, look at the structural (inaudible) long-term investments for us.

因此，我們的長期指導範圍是在 8% 到 12% 之間，我們可能處於這個範圍的中間點。而且，如果市場出現嚴重萎縮，我們總是可以在某些領域進行調整和削減。但我們將資本支出視為長期投資（聽不清楚）。當我們購買一條[賽道]時，我們購買的是一份 10 年期資產。我的意思是，看看我們的結構性（聽不清楚）長期投資。

Ravi, on the crystal ball. I'll tell you with the tariffs, nobody has the crystal ball, that can tell you what the effect of the tariffs are. But what our crystal ball does is effectively -- and our tools where we manage headcount, we have a demand forecasting model that looks at both current volumes, looks at seasonal trends and look at what we have coming in from a sales pipeline perspective, with the probability of conversion. And that leads into a demand forecast that looks not only for the current week and the current month. but it also looks three months out, 90 days out.

拉維，在水晶球上。我會告訴你關稅，沒有人擁有水晶球，可以告訴你關稅的影響是什麼。但我們的水晶球是有效的——我們管理員工數量的工具，我們有一個需求預測模型，可以查看當前數量，查看季節性趨勢，並從銷售管道的角度查看我們的收入，以及轉換的可能性。這就引出了不僅關注本週和本月的需求預測。但看起來也還需要三個月或九十天的時間。

And we use AI in that demand forecasting model to be able to help us guide what we believe tonnage is going to be at the service center level and at the shift level. And then the tools to do something similar, would then they tell our service center managers or the supervisors, how many drivers do you need, how many dock workers do you need? Are you overstaffed, are you understaffed?

我們在需求預測模型中使用人工智慧來幫助我們指導我們認為服務中心級別和輪班級別的噸位。然後，做類似事情的工具會告訴我們的服務中心經理或主管，你們需要多少名司機、多少名碼頭工人？你們人手太多嗎？你們人手不足嗎？

So this way, our folks in the field can have better decision-making tools to know where to guide their labor and land the plane on labor hours. And take the point, if you look at last summer when we saw a sub-seasonal drop in volume, if you recall, in the month of August, we were still able to improve margins. We were still able to improve efficiency. We look at the first quarter, tonnage was down 7.5 points. We still improve labor productivity by a point in that environment as well.

這樣，我們第一線工作人員就可以擁有更好的決策工具，知道如何引導他們的勞動力，並確保飛機按時降落。舉個例子，如果你回顧去年夏天，當時我們的銷量出現了季節性下降，如果你還記得的話，在八月份，我們仍然能夠提高利潤率。我們仍然能夠提高效率。我們看第一季度，噸位下降了7.5個百分點。在那種環境下，我們仍將勞動生產力提高一定程度。

So a combination of demand forecasting and labor planning is what is enabling us to do this. And we're only launching new capabilities and enhancements to those models, to make it easier for our folks for our operators in the field to be able to use that data to drive to the right outcomes on the cost side.

因此，需求預測和勞動力規劃的結合使我們能夠做到這一點。我們只是為這些模型推出了新功能和增強功能，以便我們的現場操作員能夠更輕鬆地使用這些數據來在成本方面取得正確的結果。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。

Scott Schneeberger, Oppenheimer & Company.

史考特‧施尼伯格，奧本海默公司。

I wanted to follow up on the operating metric and margin question in a different way. The -- I guess, I'm not looking for guidance necessary, but Kyle, have you done the stress testing on a draconian measure where we heard Ali mention probably mid-single digit down tonnage for the year and we have the OR guide from that. But what if we were down, say, a double-digit, is OR still capable of being positive in -- as you stress test on the downside or not positive, but an improvement year-over-year?

我想以不同的方式跟進營運指標和利潤率問題。我想，我並不是在尋求必要的指導，但是凱爾，你是否對一項嚴厲措施進行了壓力測試，我們聽到阿里提到今年的噸位可能會下降個位數，並且我們有 OR 指南。但是，如果我們下降了，比如說，兩位數，OR 是否仍然能夠為正值 - 當你對下行趨勢進行壓力測試時，或者不是正值，但同比有所改善？

Yeah. We absolutely looked at multiple scenarios from a volume standpoint and thinking about what we can control. I think a lot of what we focus on is being disciplined in managing levers that we can control, certainly in a lower volume environment. And I think on the yield side, we've demonstrated even with lower tonnage on a year-over-year basis, last several quarters, above market yield performance. And we'd expect that to continue.

是的。我們絕對從數量的角度考慮了多種情況，並思考我們能夠控制什麼。我認為，我們所關注的內容很多是嚴格管理我們能夠控制的槓桿，尤其是在低容量環境中。我認為，從收益率來看，儘管過去幾季的噸位同比有所下降，但我們的殖利率表現仍然高於市場。我們預計這種情況將會持續下去。

And on the cost side, when you think about a down cycle, we're going to focus on the metric control. So two-thirds of our costs are variable. Much of that is labor, and we're going to work to continue to manage labor to the best of our ability. That means when you think about dock, we're going to be looking at productivity measures, looking at motor moves per hour when you think about pickup and delivery, ensuring our stocks per hour is at the right place, and then we'll continue to look at our linehaul sourcing.

在成本方面，當你考慮下行週期時，我們將專注於指標控制。因此，我們的三分之二的成本都是可變的。其中大部分是勞動力，我們將盡最大努力繼續管理勞動力。這意味著，當您考慮碼頭時，我們將考慮生產力指標，當您考慮提貨和交貨時，我們將考慮每小時的機動移動量，確保我們每小時的庫存處於正確的位置，然後我們將繼續考慮我們的幹線運輸採購。

We got to 8.8% in the quarter, as Mario mentioned, there's still more runway there to continue to improve. So we have looked at a lot of these down volume cases, and we think we can still perform well even with tonnage down.

正如馬裡奧所提到的，本季我們的成長率達到了 8.8%，我們還有很大的提升空間。因此，我們研究了許多此類產量下降的情況，我們認為即使噸位下降，我們仍然可以表現良好。

I mean, if you look at some broader benchmarks and think about decremental margins and down cycles, even going back to the global financial crisis, when revenues were down double digits, decremental margins in the industry were in the 25% range, and we think we could do better than that based on the many levers we have at our disposal.

我的意思是，如果你看一些更廣泛的基準，並考慮遞減的利潤率和下降週期，甚至回到全球金融危機，當收入下降兩位數時，行業遞減的利潤率在 25％ 左右，我們認為基於我們掌握的眾多槓桿，我們可以做得更好。

Okay. Appreciate that. And just a quick follow up. Just an update on your -- Ali you mentioned sales pipeline up really nicely over there. But just kind of curious in the development of the recent months. Are you thinking about the geography any different here to the end of the year?

好的。非常感謝。並進行快速跟進。只是關於您的最新消息——阿里，您提到那邊的銷售管道進展非常順利。但只是對最近幾個月的發展有點好奇。您是否想過，到年底這裡的地理狀況會有什麼不同？

Sure, Scott. So our business in Europe continues to perform well and outperform in a soft macro environment. We grew organic revenue for the fifth consecutive quarter. If you just think about adjusted EBITDA sequentially versus Q4 was up nearly 20% and that was much better than normal seasonality. And overall, the business is very well positioned for an eventual improvement in the demand backdrop.

當然，斯科特。因此，我們在歐洲的業務繼續表現良好，並且在疲軟的宏觀環境下表現出色。我們的有機收入連續第五個季度成長。如果您只考慮調整後的 EBITDA，與第四季度相比，其環比增長了近 20%，這比正常的季節性要好得多。總體而言，該業務已為最終改善需求環境做好了充分準備。

You noted our sales pipeline was up high-single digits on a year-over-year basis. And we've also done an excellent job of rightsizing the cost structure to support stronger operating leverage over time. So as we think about the outlook for our European business, our expectation is we'll continue to outperform seasonality and outperform the market as a whole.

您注意到我們的銷售管道與去年同期相比成長了高個位數。而且，我們也出色地完成了成本結構調整工作，以便隨著時間的推移支援更強的營運槓桿。因此，當我們考慮歐洲業務的前景時，我們預計我們的表現將繼續超越季節性並超越整個市場。

Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. I'd like to hand the floor back over to Mario Harik for any closing comments.

謝謝。目前沒有其他問題。我想將發言權交還給馬裡奧·哈里克 (Mario Harik)，請他發表最後評論。

Thank you, operator, and thanks, everyone, for joining us today. First of all, there is uncertainty in the macro environment, we are executing on the levers that we can control and delivering on our outlook with the results that are outpacing the industry. We have a long runway for margin improvement over the years to come, and we look forward to updating you on our next call.

謝謝接線生，也謝謝大家今天加入我們。首先，宏觀環境存在不確定性，我們正在利用我們能夠控制的槓桿來實現我們的願景，其結果正在超越產業。未來幾年，我們的利潤率還有很長的提升空間，我們期待在下次電話會議上向您通報最新情況。

Operator, you can now end the call. Thank you.

接線員，您現在可以結束通話了。謝謝。

This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

今天的會議到此結束。現在您可以斷開線路。感謝您的參與。