埃克森美孚 (XOM) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Exxon Mobil's third-quarter 2025 earnings call. I'm Jim Chapman, Vice President, Treasurer, and Investor Relations.

各位早安。歡迎參加埃克森美孚2025年第三季財報電話會議。我是吉姆·查普曼，副總裁、財務主管兼投資者關係負責人。

This quarter's presentation and pre-recorded remarks are available on the Investors section of our website. They are meant to accompany the third-quarter earnings press release, which is posted in the same location.

本季度的簡報和預先錄製的講話可在我們網站的投資者關係版塊查看。它們旨在與第三季收益新聞稿一同發布，該新聞稿也發佈在同一位置。

During today's presentation, we'll make forward-looking remarks, including comments on our long-term plans, which are subject to risks and uncertainties. Please read our cautionary statement on slide 2. You can find more information on the risks and uncertainties that apply to any forward-looking statements in our SEC filings on our website. We also provide supplemental information at the end of our earnings slides, which are also posted on our website.

在今天的演講中，我們將發表一些前瞻性言論，包括對我們的長期計劃的評論，但這些計劃存在風險和不確定性。請閱讀第二頁投影片上的警示聲明。您可以在我們網站上的美國證券交易委員會文件中找到有關任何前瞻性聲明的風險和不確定性的更多資訊。我們也在收益報告幻燈片的末尾提供補充信息，這些幻燈片也會發佈在我們的網站上。

Our business is designed to grow value and to provide exceptional stability across the commodity cycles. Our focus remains unchanged: executing on our plans and leveraging our competitive advantages to create value for our shareholders.

我們的業務旨在創造價值，並在大宗商品週期中提供卓越的穩定性。我們的目標始終不變：執行我們的計劃，利用我們的競爭優勢為股東創造價值。

Our unmatched investment portfolio, proprietary technology, execution excellence, integrated business, scale, cost discipline, and strong balance sheet are all unmatched in our industry. And the people of Exxon Mobil use these competitive advantages to drive superior results, delivering third-quarter adjusted earnings of $8.1 billion or $1.88 per share.

我們在業界擁有無與倫比的投資組合、專有技術、卓越的執行力、一體化的業務、規模、成本控制和強大的資產負債表。埃克森美孚的員工利用這些競爭優勢取得了優異的業績，第三季調整後收益為 81 億美元，即每股 1.88 美元。

We did this while completing multiple large, complex new projects. So far this year, 8 of our 10 key projects for 2025 have successfully commenced operations, most recently at Yellowtail in Guyana and Bacalhau in Brazil.

我們在完成多個大型、複雜的新專案的同時做到了這一點。今年到目前為止，我們 2025 年的 10 個重點項目中已有 8 個成功投產，最近投產的項目包括圭亞那的 Yellowtail 和巴西的 Bacalhau。

Beyond our key 2025 startups, we announced our eighth carbon capture and storage contract -- this time, our first bioenergy agreement -- with AtmosClear to transport and permanently store biogenic CO2 from Its greenfield biopower plant project located in Louisiana. This brings our total CO2 under contract for CCS with third-party customers to more than 10 MTA, far more than any other company to date.

除了我們重點關注的 2025 年初創企業之外，我們還宣布了第八份碳捕獲和儲存合約——這一次，也是我們的第一份生物能源協議——與 AtmosClear 簽訂，以運輸和永久儲存其位於路易斯安那州的新建生物質發電廠項目中的生物質二氧化碳。這使得我們與第三方客戶簽訂的碳捕獲與封存 (CCS) 合約的二氧化碳總量超過 10 萬噸/年，遠超過迄今為止任何其他公司。

And we continue to advance our long-term technology-led growth ambitions. In addition to smaller inorganic investment activity during the quarter, we capitalize on exciting and material growth opportunities in both our Product Solutions and our Upstream businesses.

我們將繼續推進以技術驅動的長期成長目標。除了本季較小的非內生性投資活動外，我們還充分利用了產品解決方案和上游業務中令人振奮且意義重大的成長機會。

First, in Product Solutions, we announced the acquisition of key assets from Superior Graphite, a leader in graphite and carbon materials, accelerating our entry into the battery anode materials market. This acquisition is a strong strategic fit, bringing together Superior Graphite's differentiated furnace technology and know-how with our own core process capabilities, our proprietary technology, and our advantaged feedstock in a way that uniquely positions us to deliver breakthrough solutions that can change the game for the energy storage and auto sectors.

首先，在產品解決方案方面，我們宣布收購了石墨和碳材料領域的領導者 Superior Graphite 的關鍵資產，加速了我們進入電池負極材料市場的步伐。此次收購具有很強的策略契合度，將Superior Graphite差異化的爐技術和專業知識與我們自身的核心製程能力、專有技術和優勢原料相結合，使我們擁有獨特的優勢，能夠提供突破性的解決方案，從而改變儲能和汽車行業的格局。

And in Upstream, we acquired more than 80,000 net acres in the Permian Basin from Sinochem Petroleum. This acreage expands the opportunities to leverage our technology advantages, like lightweight proppant and next-generation cube design. We know our competitive advantages and know the value they bring, especially in the Permian Basin. By applying our superior technology, our execution excellence and scale, we can unlock value for our shareholders in a way that is very much aligned with the one-plus-one-must-equal-three-or-more approach to acquisitions we have been describing for some time.

在上游領域，我們從中國化工石油公司收購了二疊紀盆地超過 80,000 英畝的淨面積。這片土地擴大了我們利用技術優勢的機會，例如輕質支撐劑和下一代立方體設計。我們了解自身的競爭優勢，也知道這些優勢帶來的價值，尤其是在二疊紀盆地。透過運用我們卓越的技術、出色的執行力和規模，我們可以為股東創造價值，這與我們一段時間以來一直描述的「一加一必須等於三或更多」的收購方法非常契合。

We are constantly investing in new technologies. Our newest supercomputer, named Discovery 6, one of the top 20 most powerful supercomputers in the world, was brought online this quarter here on our Houston campus in partnership with Hewlett Packard Enterprise and NVIDIA. Among other uses, this new supercomputer materially accelerates our ability to review and act on exploration data.

我們一直在投資新技術。我們最新的超級電腦 Discovery 6 是全球最強大的 20 台超級電腦之一，本季在我們休士頓園區與惠普企業和英偉達合作投入使用。除其他用途外，這台新型超級電腦大大加快了我們審查和利用勘探數據的能力。

The deployment of our cutting-edge 4D seismic technology using this high-performance computing will revolutionize reservoir management, enabling enhanced real-time visualization of the subsurface, better well placement, and increased resource recovery with less capital. With these technologies, we can now do in a week what used to take months to increase resource recovery and potentially open up new exploration opportunities.

利用這種高效能運算部署我們最先進的 4D 地震技術，將徹底改變油藏管理，實現更清晰的地下即時視覺化、更合理的井位佈置，並以更少的資本提高資源回收率。借助這些技術，我們現在可以在一周內完成過去需要數月才能完成的工作，從而提高資源回收率並有可能開闢新的勘探機會。

This past quarter, we returned $9.4 billion to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks. That's nearly $28 billion so far this year. We consistently and reliably return capital to our shareholders while continuing to invest in our differentiated opportunity set and maintaining an industry-leading balance sheet.

上個季度，我們透過分紅和股票回購向股東返還了 94 億美元。今年迄今為止，這一數字已接近280億美元。我們持續可靠地向股東返還資本，同時繼續投資於我們差異化的發展機遇，並維持業界領先的資產負債表。

In December of last year, we laid out our plans to 2030, growing more profitable barrels, more high-value products, and lower costs. By leveraging our full suite of technologies and by maintaining operational excellence, we're accelerating delivery of those plans in 2025.

去年 12 月，我們制定了到 2030 年的計劃，目標是增加利潤更高的桶裝原油產量、生產更多高價值產品並降低成本。透過充分利用我們的全部技術並維持卓越的運營，我們正在加速實現這些計劃，目標是在 2025 年實現。

In the Upstream, our advantaged assets in the Permian, Guyana, and LNG made up more than 50% of our production to start the year. Year to date, we've continued to increase this percentage, well on our way to our plan of more than 60% by 2030. These improvements have been a key driver for our industry-leading improvement in unit earnings since 2019. We continue to build on that momentum, with unit earnings year to date of over $11 per barrel on a constant price basis.

在上游業務方面，我們在二疊紀盆地、圭亞那和液化天然氣領域的優勢資產占我們年初產量的 50% 以上。今年以來，我們持續提高這一比例，朝著 2030 年達到 60% 以上的目標穩步邁進。自 2019 年以來，這些改進一直是推動我們單位收益在產業內取得領先成長的關鍵因素。我們繼續保持這一勢頭，今年迄今為止，以固定價格計算，單位收益已超過每桶 11 美元。

In the third quarter, Yellowtail and Guyana started up, our fourth and largest-to-date offshore oil development in the country. With Yellowtail now online, we delivered record Guyana production during the quarter. We also took the final investment decision on our seventh project on the Stabroek Block, Hammerhead, which is expected to bring online 150,000 barrels per day in 2029. By the end of 2030, we expect to have total production capacity of 1.7 million oil equivalent barrels per day from eight developments in Guyana.

第三季度，黃尾油田和圭亞那油田投產，這是我們在該國的第四個也是迄今為止最大的海上石油開發項目。隨著 Yellowtail 魚苗魚苗的投產，我們本季在圭亞那的產量創下了歷史新高。我們也對位於斯塔布魯克區塊的第七個項目「鎚頭鯊」做出了最終投資決定，該項目預計將於 2029 年投產，日產量為 15 萬桶。到 2030 年底，我們預計圭亞那的八個油田開發項目的總產能將達到每天 170 萬桶石油當量。

In Product Solutions, we're improving earnings by growing high-value products through advantaged projects. This year, we've laid the groundwork for future earnings growth by bringing projects like the Singapore Resid Upgrade Unit and the Fawley hydrofiner online. By 2030, we expect additional projects, like our recently FID'd major reconfiguration project in Baytown, to continue driving profitable growth and increasing Product Solutions earnings. By 2030, we expect high-value products to drive more than 40% of our Product Solutions earnings potential.

在產品解決方案領域，我們透過優勢項目開發高價值產品，進而提高獲利能力。今年，我們透過啟動新加坡殘渣升級裝置和福雷加氫精製裝置等項目，為未來的獲利成長奠定了基礎。到 2030 年，我們預計其他項目，例如我們最近在 Baytown 完成最終投資決策的重大改造項目，將繼續推動獲利成長並提高產品解決方案的收益。到 2030 年，我們預計高價值產品將貢獻我們產品解決方案獲利潛力的 40% 以上。

We are delivering on these growth projects while also reducing costs. Last December, we set a plan for an additional $6 billion of savings between 2024 and 2030. We've already added an additional $2.2 billion of structural cost savings, over a third of the way to our post-2024 plans in just nine months.

我們在推動這些成長項目的同時，也正在降低成本。去年12月，我們制定了一項計劃，目標是在2024年至2030年間額外節省60億美元。短短九個月內，我們已經額外節省了 22 億美元的結構性成本，完成了 2024 年後計畫的三分之一以上。

Our track record is clear. The cumulative savings in this area equate to roughly one-third of our current earnings per share. Our teams continue to optimize the business and bring value to our shareholders. Our commitment to increasing profitability, executing with excellence, and controlling costs will drive value for our shareholders well into the future and in any price environment.

我們的業績有目共睹。該領域累計節省的金額約占我們目前每股收益的三分之一。我們的團隊不斷優化業務，為股東創造價值。我們致力於提高獲利能力、追求卓越執行和控製成本，這將為我們的股東在未來很長一段時間內以及在任何價格環境下創造價值。

In a capital-intensive business like ours, delivering major projects at industry-leading investment costs on time and on budget, or better still, ahead of schedule and under budget, is essential to driving leading shareholder returns. This is a great example of what we mean by execution excellence. And since we created our centralized Global Projects organization in 2019, consolidating decades of project management expertise, our performance in this area, completing large and complex projects at an advantage versus industry, has continued to improve.

在我們這樣的資本密集型行業中，以行業領先的投資成本按時按預算交付重大項目，或者更好的是，提前完成並低於預算，對於推動股東獲得領先的回報至關重要。這就是我們所謂的卓越執行力的絕佳例證。自 2019 年我們創建了集中式全球專案組織，整合了數十年的專案管理專業知識以來，我們在這一領域的表現，即在完成大型複雜專案方面比行業更具優勢，持續得到提升。

This year, we completed more strategic projects than ever before. Our ability to execute multiple large complex projects simultaneously to the highest standard is a unique competitive advantage that will continue to keep Exxon Mobil in a league of its own to 2030 and well beyond.

今年，我們完成的戰略項目比以往任何時候都多。我們能夠同時以最高標準執行多個大型複雜項目，這是我們獨特的競爭優勢，這將使埃克森美孚在 2030 年及以後繼續保持領先地位。

To get a sense of our scale, we are delivering about three times as many mega projects, defined as those with capital costs in excess of $5 billion, as our nearest IOC competitor. Scale and deep proficiency enable project costs 10% to 20% lower and project delivery dates 20% faster than the industry average. Since its formation, Global Projects have been a cornerstone of our success globally.

為了讓您了解我們的規模，我們正在交付的巨型專案（定義為資本成本超過 50 億美元的專案）數量大約是我們最接近的國際石油公司競爭對手的三倍。規模和深厚的專業技能使專案成本比行業平均降低 10% 至 20%，專案交付日期比行業平均快 20%。自成立以來，全球專案一直是我們在全球範圍內取得成功的基石。

In Guyana, we've now delivered four major deepwater developments, with Yellowtail started this year, and have three additional FPSOs in fabrication. We expanded our advantaged Chemical Products' global footprint with two world-scale newbuild steam crackers on the US Gulf Coast and in China. We started up an integrated complex with new-to-the-world technology to high-grade our refined products in Singapore. And we are advancing several major investments in LNG, in deepwater, and new markets for the coming years.

在圭亞那，我們目前已交付四個大型深水開發項目，其中 Yellowtail 項目於今年啟動，另有三艘 FPSO 正在建造中。我們透過在美國墨西哥灣沿岸和中國建造兩座世界級的新建蒸汽裂解裝置，擴大了我們具有優勢的化學產品業務的全球影響力。我們在新加坡建立了一個採用世界首創技術的綜合工廠，以提升我們精煉產品的品質。未來幾年，我們將在液化天然氣、深水領域和新市場推進幾項重大投資。

Just to highlight some of the broad range of work being performed by this organization, none of our competitors are developing as many mega projects or delivering at an industry-leading cost and schedule as we are. Since its formation, the Global Projects organization has realized tremendous capital cost savings which, by 2030, should total $10 billion. This organization epitomizes the core strength of Exxon Mobil, leveraging execution excellence, technology, integration, scale, and, of course, our talented people.

為了突顯本組織所進行工作的廣泛性，我們的競爭對手中沒有誰能像我們一樣開發如此多的巨型項目，也沒有誰能像我們一樣以業界領先的成本和進度交付項目。自成立以來，全球專案組織已實現了巨大的資本成本節約，到 2030 年，節約總額應達到 100 億美元。該組織體現了埃克森美孚的核心優勢，充分利用了卓越的執行力、技術、整合能力、規模優勢，當然還有我們優秀的人才。

Turning to our third-quarter results, we delivered another strong quarter of both earnings and cash flow. We reported earnings of $7.5 billion, or $8.1 billion excluding identified items. Cash flow from operations was $14.8 billion underpinned by record production in both Permian and Guyana. Since 2019, we've delivered over $14 billion in structural cost savings, well on our way to achieving our 2030 plan.

再來看我們第三季的業績，我們在獲利和現金流方面都再次取得了強勁的成長。我們公佈的收益為 75 億美元，若不計入特定項目，則為 81 億美元。受二疊紀盆地和圭亞那盆地創紀錄的產量支撐，公司經營活動產生的現金流為 148 億美元。自 2019 年以來，我們已實現了超過 140 億美元的結構性成本節約，正朝著實現 2030 年計畫穩步邁進。

Our cash CapEx was $8.6 billion for the quarter, which included approximately $2.4 billion for cash-funded growth acquisitions. Excluding this M&A activity, we expect our full-year cash CapEx to be slightly below the lower end of our prior guidance of $27 billion to $29 billion for the year. And our balance sheet remained the strongest of the IOCs, with a net debt to capital ratio of just 9.5%.

本季我們的現金資本支出為 86 億美元，其中包括約 24 億美元用於現金融資的成長收購。不計入此次併購活動，我們預計全年現金資本支出將略低於先前預期的 270 億美元至 290 億美元區間的下限。我們的資產負債表仍然是國際石油公司中最強勁的，淨債務資本比率僅為 9.5%。

Our shareholder distributions remain consistent and predictable. We distributed $9.4 billion to shareholders this quarter, bringing our year-to-date total to nearly $28 billion. We remain on track for $20 billion of share repurchases this year, in line with our previous guidance. We've also announced an increase to our quarterly dividend of $0.04 to $1.03 per share. This year now marks our 43rd consecutive year of growing annual dividend per share payments, a longer track record than 95% of the companies in the S&P 500.

我們的股東分紅保持穩定且可預測。本季我們向股東分紅 94 億美元，讓今年迄今的分紅總額接近 280 億美元。我們仍將按計劃在今年回購 200 億美元的股票，與我們先前的預期一致。我們也宣布將季度股息從每股 0.04 美元提高到每股 1.03 美元。今年是我們連續第 43 年提高每股年度股息支付，這項記錄比標準普爾 500 指數中 95% 的公司都要長。

Our integrated model is a valuable, competitive advantage that ensures portfolio strength and stability across commodity cycles. Looking at the industry more broadly, third-quarter prices and refining margins were within the 10-year band. Crude prices were up slightly for the quarter due to strong demand, despite news of increased OPEC+ supply.

我們的一體化模式是一項寶貴的競爭優勢，確保投資組合在商品週期中保持實力和穩定。從更廣泛的角度來看，第三季的價格和煉油利潤率都在 10 年來的正常範圍內。儘管有消息指出歐佩克+增產，但由於需求強勁，原油價格本季仍小幅上漲。

Robust demand kept natural gas prices at the top of the 10-year range. Refining margins improved due to continued high demand and diesel supply disruptions in Russia and in the Middle East. Chemical margins remain at the bottom of cycle as oversupply persists.

強勁的需求使天然氣價格維持在 10 年來的最高水準。由於俄羅斯和中東地區持續高需求和柴油供應中斷，煉油利潤率有所提高。由於供應過剩持續存在，化學工業的利潤率仍處於週期底部。

Looking at our earnings year to date, we continue to deliver strong results and drive value for our shareholders. Our year-to-date GAAP earnings are $22.3 billion. Earnings excluding identified items are $22.9 billion, down $3.2 billion versus last year, primarily driven by lower market prices. This is partially offset by advantaged volume growth and structural cost reductions, contributing $3.4 billion. These two categories highlight the value of our focus on profitable barrels, higher-value products, and cost discipline. Lastly, expenses are up $1.2 billion, driven by higher Tengiz depreciation costs and startup costs from new projects.

從今年迄今的獲利情況來看，我們持續取得強勁的業績，並為股東創造價值。我們今年迄今的GAAP收益為223億美元。不計特定項目，獲利 229 億美元，比去年減少 32 億美元，主要原因是市場價格走低。銷售成長和結構性成本降低在一定程度上抵消了這一損失，貢獻了 34 億美元。這兩個類別凸顯了我們專注於獲利桶、高價值產品和成本控制的價值。最後，支出增加了 12 億美元，主要原因是騰吉茲折舊成本增加以及新專案的啟動成本增加。

Looking at the sequential quarterly results, we had third-quarter GAAP earnings of $7.5 billion. Earnings excluding identified items were $8.1 billion, up $1 billion from the second quarter. This was the result of higher prices and margins, along with growth in advantaged production and disciplined cost management.

從季度環比業績來看，我們第三季的GAAP收益為75億美元。不計特定項目，收益為 81 億美元，比第二季增加 10 億美元。這是價格和利潤率提高，以及優勢生產和嚴格的成本管理共同作用的結果。

Now, let's look at cash flow. We generated $14.8 billion in cash flow in the third quarter, as our businesses continued to deliver strong results. Distributions to shareholders were $9.4 billion this quarter, including over $4.2 billion in dividends and just over $5 billion in share repurchases. We continue to reward our shareholders with strong and reliable distributions.

現在，我們來看看現金流。第三季度，我們創造了 148 億美元的現金流，因為我們的業務持續取得強勁的業績。本季向股東分配的金額為 94 億美元，其中包括超過 42 億美元的股息和略超過 50 億美元的股票回購。我們將繼續以強勁可靠的分紅回報股東。

Our cash CapEx for the third quarter was $8.6 billion, including $2.4 billion for the cash-funded growth M&A I described earlier. Our industry-leading balance sheet enables the consistency and reliability you've come to expect from Exxon Mobil.

第三季我們的現金資本支出為 86 億美元，其中包括我先前提到的現金融資成長併購的 24 億美元。我們業界領先的資產負債表確保了埃克森美孚一貫的穩定性和可靠性。

Looking to the fourth quarter, in the Upstream, we had about $400 million of net favorable tax and asset management items in the third quarter that we do not expect to repeat in the fourth quarter. Our full-year Permian production outlook is now 1.6 million oil equivalent barrels per day. Our total production guidance remains unchanged at 4.7 million oil equivalent barrels per day.

展望第四季度，在上游業務方面，我們在第三季度有約 4 億美元的淨有利稅收和資產管理項目，我們預計第四季度不會重現這些項目。我們對二疊紀盆地全年產量的預期是每天160萬桶油當量。我們的總產量預期保持不變，仍為每天 470 萬桶油當量。

In Product Solutions, the China Chemical Complex and Singapore Resid Upgrade projects will continue to ramp up through year-end. We expect fourth-quarter corporate and financing expenses to be $600 million to $800 million. Excluding the cash-funded acquisitions which I described, we expect to be slightly below the lower end of our full-year cash CapEx guidance.

在產品解決方案方面，中國化工綜合體和新加坡殘渣升級專案將繼續在年底前加速推進。我們預計第四季公司及融資費用為 6 億至 8 億美元。除去我之前提到的現金收購項目，我們預計全年現金資本支出將略低於我們全年現金資本支出指引的下限。

I'd also note that we typically see seasonally higher operating expenses across our businesses in the fourth quarter. For details on that, you can see prior year quarterly operating expense trends in our modeling toolkit located in the Investors section of our website.

我還想指出，我們通常在第四季會看到各業務的營運費用出現季節性成長。有關詳情，您可以在我們網站「投資者」部分的建模工具包中查看上一年季度營運費用趨勢。

In summary, we've built a company that is designed to lead through commodity cycles, one that is built on cost discipline, execution excellence, technology advancements, long-term growth, and delivering shareholder returns. We continue to reliably deliver, proving year in and year out that we are truly in a league of our own.

總而言之，我們打造了一家旨在引領大宗商品週期的公司，一家以成本控制、卓越執行、技術進步、長期成長和為股東帶來回報為基石的公司。我們始終保持可靠的交付能力，年復一年地證明我們確實獨樹一幟。

We look forward to connecting with you on December 9 for our corporate plan update, where we will spend more time discussing our exciting plans for the future.

我們期待在 12 月 9 日與您聯繫，進行公司計劃更新，屆時我們將花更多時間討論我們令人興奮的未來計劃。