Essential Utilities Inc (WTRG) 2008 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Aqua America second quarter 2008 earnings conference call.

Today's conference is being recorded.

Now at this time I would like to turn the conference over to Brian Dingerdissen, Director of Investor Relations.

Please go ahead.

Thank you Duane.

Good morning everyone.

Thank you for joining us for Aqua America's second quarter 2008 earnings conference call.

If you did not receive a copy of the press release you can find it by visiting the investor relations section of our website at AquaAmerica.com or you can call [Will Meade] at 610-520-6309.

They will also be webcast of this event available at our site.

At this time I would also like to clarify the issue with the press release this morning.

The first press release that went out had an incorrect date for the December 1 dividend for the record date.

It should have said November 17.

A corrected release has since gone out.

Yesterday's dividend release was correct that the record date for the dividend for December 1 was November 17.

Presenting today is Nick DeBenedictis, Chairman and President of Aqua America; along with Dave Smeltzer, the Company's Chief Financial Officer.

As a reminder some of the matters discussed during this call may include forward-looking statements that involve risk, uncertainties and other factors that may cause the actual results to be materially different from any future results expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements.

Please refer to our most recent 10-K, 10-Q and other SEC filings for description of such risks and uncertainties.

During the course of this call, reference may be made to certain non-GAAP financial measures.

Reconciliation of these non-GAAP to GAAP financial measures are posted in the investor relations section of the Company's website.

At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Nick for his formal remarks after which we will open up the call for questions.

Nick?

Thank you Brian and good morning everyone.

This morning Aqua announced its earnings of $22.6 million for the quarter or $0.17 meeting first call but down $0.01 from last year.

Also yesterday we released after our Board meeting -- the Board reviews in our strategic session in August reviews our annual business plan and future potentials and yesterday a vote of confidence in our long-term growth business model by raising the dividend from $0.50 to $0.54 with the increase to go into effect in our December payment and that is what Brian was just referring to, the record date of November 17.

That's an 8% increase and I think it rewards our shareholders from a standpoint of this is the tenth consecutive year where we are been able to raise our dividend above our stated 5% target and it's our eighteenth increase in dividend in 17 years.

That is a track record that very few companies have been able to achieve and we're very proud that.

The biggest factor in our quarter is really flat revenues.

Revenues were only up one-tenth of 1%.

Obviously it's hard to grow earnings if you can't grow revenues and I want to address that, what happened and what we're doing and what we see as the future potential over the next two quarters.

We were negatively affected by consumption generally which basically was because of some we weather in the Midwest and the drought declaration in North Carolina with limited sales.

And it was moderate weather, one good month, one bad month in the Mid-Atlantic which of course is our largest area.

That was offset however almost equally by the increases in surcharges in rates and pricing.

So, the consumption in the rates really offset each other and then the other offsetting factor is usually we have growth that helps us increase revenues and we did have growth this quarter between three-quarters (inaudible).

On the other hand we disposed of two properties, Henrico in the fourth quarter of last year and Fort Wayne in the first quarter this year.

And that entailed a loss of revenues about the same as our new growth; so a reason for it being flat.

So obviously, what is the solution going forward?

We are praying a lot for warm weather this summer and no rain.

But that is something out of our control.

That will improve the consumption part.

On the other hand, two things we can control at least partially.

One is to try and achieve a fair return for all of the investments we've made over the past couple of years, fixing up the system and improving the infrastructure in our 13 states, what we call regulatory lag.

And that is (inaudible) you get through our rate case litigation and then the final rate decisions.

I will go into a lot more detail later in the call as to the status of the $70 million in rates that are in progress.

The other part is growth which obviously the national economy has a lot to do with.

But our pace in the first half year year-over-year is still growing and that is good news at about 1% to 1.5%.

So even with the much publicized national economic slowdown in housing and so on, it hasn't affected our states at least as much as you would tend to think when you hear the news reports.

And recently we announced a couple of acquisitions of reasonable size that we're very happy with.

We're going to be working with the Borough of Sharpsville in Pennsylvania, 7000 people in the borough, to supply their water needs and we have just announced I think it was yesterday or the day before, a community in Northwestern Indiana, South Haven serving 12,000 people wastewater services.

And I will go into much more of our growth pipeline later in the call.

So we're holding up reasonably well, not the pace that we're used but still a considerable add to our topline growth potential (inaudible).

We are maintaining our strong capital program which I think is very important.

We're not slowing down because of the economy or anything of the sort.

We're still looking at about $1.3 billion spend over the next five years, $250 million or so a year.

And the subtle shift as we have been putting a lot of money in our Southern operations and we had to mainly because we inherited a lot of problems that needed major fix-ups, we're down to a handful to complete there and the run rate in the South will be lower mainly because we're still going to spend more than depreciation and maintain the system excellently and do everything that has to be done but not at the pace of 2.5 to 3 times depreciation that we inherited to get the system in shape in '04, '05 and '06.

So '07 was down slightly, '08 will be down slightly again.

Then '09 and '10 will be more into a compliance mode, a little more than depreciation.

Meanwhile, infrastructure replacement in the older areas will continue mainly in the Mid-Atlantic and northern states.

And that is the states that have the surcharges that allow you to do infrastructure and not build up regulatory lag.

So I think we have a nice predictable capital program going forward and this year we should spend in probably the 280 range mainly because we have added about $30 million mostly in pipe work because of the bonus depreciation of the new Economic Stimulus Act which allows it will not build rates because it is in the rate structure.

It's really to help the rate payers but also to put a lot of needed pipe in the ground.

And that is about worth $30 million both in cash coming in from the bonus depreciation and then we're going to spend that in capital to improve our systems.

Now the good news I think looking forward in the capital program as we ramped up over the past couple of years especially with the major expenditures in the South, the depreciation factors and the interest factors year-over-year really taxed the P&L.

(inaudible) example, in '07 we were up about 19% first six months, 17% for the year in depreciation year-over-year and interest about 14%; huge hits to the P&L but needed because we had to fund and do the work that was needed.

A stark comparison in '08.

First three months -- the first six months is usually lower because of the fact that you ramp up your spending in the summer and that comes into Q3 and Q4, depreciation and amortization were only up 3% and we anticipate in the 7 to 8% range for the year because of the increase in the next two quarters but overall, less than half of what it was last year.

Going forward, I think you can anticipate '09, '10 high single digits.

In the interest category, last year we borrowed a lot of money and we also had to use a lot of short-term debt at LIBOR rates that were interestingly enough about 200 basis points higher than they are today.

To give you an idea, last year we borrowed over $200 million.

This year we are looking at maybe 60 to 70 and the same for next year.

So much lower borrow rate because we're generating more cash to support this $250 million program to improve the environmental and infrastructure of our assets.

And our use of the revolver has been lessened from probably -- last year at this peak in the third quarter of '07 we had $150 million in our revolver.

This year it looks like we will be between -- right now we're about 80, so about half of that pace.

It doesn't look we will get much more than between 80 and $100 million run rate for the rest of the year and probably can be able to hold that tight range over the next two.

So as long as interest rates stay down, that obviously helps us because we're borrowing the revolver at LIBOR.

But even if interest rates start rising, the impact going forward because we're going to have less at risk will be minimized.

I think that's what people look at in a secure, safe investment that they see a water utility being.

Of course part of this is helped by our excellent S&P rating.

Our Pennsylvania subsidiary was just reaffirmed at an A+ rating which is -- and a number two in a range of one to ten, one being the most safe investment to ten being the least most risky.

We are number two which puts us at one of the highest utility ratings I believe in the country.

And the Aqua Pennsylvania rating does consider Aqua America's credit quality so it sort of blends the parent and the major subsidiary of the Company.

This quarter we also closed out the forward equity which I tried to explain many times to many people.

It was very unique transaction but it's now closed down so it won't be in our Q's anymore after this quarter.

But it turned out to be very good for our rate payers and our shareholders.

It closed out in the second quarter.

We actually issued one million shares in the second quarter so you'll see a little dilution this year.

On the other hand we were able to because of the closing of the other shares, we were able to bring in $33 million in cash that will be used to pay down short-term debt and used for capital project, it's new equity.

So if you want to look at it in a very simplistic non-account term, we ended up with $33 a share for those one million shares which is obviously -- was a good transaction for the Company.

It allowed our book value to jump about 3% this quarter and we anticipate -- and that's with two quarters that were flat with the hope for better quarters coming in the future.

(inaudible) look at 5 to 6% growth in the book value this year which gets us back on track there.

The dilution factor because of this million shares, we don't anticipate any new offerings in the near future.

So if you want to look at another long-term factor, we were because we had to issue a lot of equity to keep our standards up, our S&P rating up and the fact that our expansion plans were requiring that and we weren't generating as much internal cash to support it, we were growing at a three plus dilution factor over the last five year CAGR.

In '08, you can anticipate well below 2%, between 1.5 and 2% and then '09 and on forward we look at our long-term plan possibly being less than 1% and going further with the only stock we need being the DRIP, the dividend reinvestment program which many of our shareholders participate in.

Rather than taking cash dividends, they take stock.

I would like to also address the -- so the capital program is basically pretty stable, intact, addressing all the needs of the regulators.

And without the previous year's heavy increases and depreciation in interest that affects the P&L.

Much more stable look and with the S&P rating solid and our need for new equity, it really is a good situation to be in from a capital risk standpoint, meaning dollar capital risk.

The other big issue is we've gotten our [O&M] which was growing at 10, 15% in past years mainly because of acquisitions stabilized -- you'll see this quarter it's about 3% growth and we think we can hold that 3 to 4% range going forward.

Now why is it?

What's happened?

First of all, I told you in the first quarter we were very negatively affected by bad debt and fuel cost.

Those are both trending better.

As we mentioned in the release we have cut a lot of mileage driven down changing out trucks as we speak to smaller trucks just like everybody in America is doing today.

And fuel prices actually are starting to come down a little bit which is good news.

Diesel has not yet, so that's one of our big -- we drive big trucks so that hasn't hit yet.

Hopefully that will be coming down too.

The other is bad debt.

We had a better quarter in the second quarter than we had in the first.

We expect that trend to continue as all our -- we're working out all the kinks in the new customer service system which prevented us from mailing out bills early on last year (inaudible) this would be six months ago timely.

Now they're back on track.

Meters are being read on track and the collection which is the last issue to hit because you can't be asking people to pay back bills if the bill isn't in their hands.

So now everything is working out and it's coming down.

And even in its worst case it was just slightly above 1% of revenue which most utilities think is good.

We don't.

We like to get it well below 1% which is our goal.

We are approaching that level now in the second quarter, expect to get there in third quarter.

So the two variables I threw out in the first quarter conference call seem to be coming back in line.

The biggest driver of [O&M] of course is labor and benefits and that is well under control as you can see from the [O&M] both complement and control and in benefits and labor.

And all of our union contracts in the North have been signed now, all done this year.

We have two more contracts next year.

But all of those were in the 3% range total package.

So I think you can see there's no cost plus issue in our [O&M] coming up.

Looking forward, there were -- although they affect the [O&M] column, wanted to make sure that these were clear.

In our fourth quarter of this year in '07, in comparison, you'll see that there were a couple of onetime items that I wanted to remind you of because that could affect the [O&M] column.

And one was the sale of the Henrico system which occurred in the fourth quarter and the way the accounting standards are you have to use a deduction in [O&M] versus gain on sale or whatever.

And the other was -- Bobby, you have to help me.

The investment Basin.

Sure, that one did show up on the gain on other sale.

We had an investment in the startup company that we undertook a couple of years ago and we decided to exit that investment last year or sometime in November I think it was.

And we booked a pretty sizable gain as a result of that investment.

It was called Basin Water and between the add on the gain of the sale which we don't have any more Basin Water this year and the idea that Henrico was sold and we booked a gain on that but really is a reduction in [O&M].

That's why I bring it up at this point in the call.

That was about $0.02 in the fourth quarter.

So for your predicting on your forecasting, you have to look at that fourth quarter earnings last year being 40.02 of nonrecurring.

Now going back to where we think we can be growing revenues therefore growing earnings, first is of course in the acquisition area and in the customer growth area.

The two ways you grow is unit growth or price growth.

In the unit growth area as I mentioned earlier, we are still seeing about a 1 to 1.5% organic growth.

It was in the 1.5 to 2% range not long ago.

It started falling rapidly in the third and fourth quarter of last year so the comparisons going forward won't be as tough as they were in the first two quarters.

But organic growth has held up pretty well.

I mean we were down but not excessively in new units being put on our system.

And that includes the South and the North.

So we're hopeful that things have stabilized now and hopefully start moving up again sometime in '09.

Regarding acquisitions, we've just announced two acquisitions recently and they will add maybe 1% to the system and we have another dozen or so; some small, some medium-size in the pipeline that we have letters of intent or letters of agreement on that we're working to close.

They may all close by the end of the year, they may not.

And as you realize new ones are coming in, we're starting to see a lot of activity of smaller systems maybe looking at exiting the system.

So we've made a management change in our corporate development group.

Christopher Luning, he's been with us five years, in our legal department is now taking over, former real estate lawyer.

He is enjoying it.

He's doing a nice job and we're starting to see -- he told me the other day we're starting to see a lot more interest in people wanting our stock versus just cash.

So I take that as a positive.

I take that as a complement but we will see.

So I am modestly optimistic about growth even in today's national economic times.

It's your guess as good as mine when the housing turn goes to the better.

Regarding rates which is more under our control, at least filing the rates are under our control, is we have -- last call I told you we had about $70 million of cases in various processes of the litigative process of filing rates.

I can happily report that $49 million of that $70 million has already been decided, and the bulk being New Jersey and Pennsylvania which in the last three weeks made final orders.

We have another $11 million or so in very close to final stages where we are in final negotiations.

And I would anticipate the rest of this quarter and early in the fourth quarter we should be able to see those recognized and therefore for the annualized basis they would start and help ;08 but also '09.

So looking at about $60 million completed by the end of the year.

If you want to put that on a trailing 12-month revenue basis, that's almost 9 to 10%.

So you can see a lot of the lag in regulatory action is now coming home and some of this should have been probably over the last year.

But now it's all coming in over this year and next year and actually the next two quarters and the first two quarters and third quarter of next year.

We're also looking -- we already have filed $21 million in cases which I don't anticipate will be final this year.

And we expect another $50 million probably to be filed during '09.

So you can see the regulatory lag is being addressed very aggressively by the Company.

I think that really gives you a full rundown on the financials of the Company and what our plans are.

And maybe I would open it up for questions now.

We're very pleased with the dividend because I think it shows where we think the Company is going.

We also have optimism with our national economy although I can't say it's growing right now but I think we're seeing some stabilization.

Open it up for questions.

(OPERATOR INSTRUCTIONS) [Tim Winter], (inaudible).

I have got a number of questions.

One, just housecleaning real quick.

What was the actual number of shares that you issued and what was the price issued at?

New shares, one million.

Exactly one million?

Exactly one million.

So that's what will show on the outstanding shares.

But because of the cover of the shares that were -- I don't know what you call them -- basically covering shorts is really what it was.

I don't know if that's the correct term.

We issued one million and we covered about 1.7 million in shorts.

And when you combine the full revenue we got $33 million and said you only issued one million shares, I very simplistically say we got $33 a share.

The million that we closed I guess you could call it, we got 22 something.

The rest was the transaction that we didn't actually need the shares because our cash generation was more than we had anticipated three years ago when we did this or two years ago when we did it.

You remember we did it because we thought American was going to becoming out with their offering back in late '06.

And we wanted to get into the market and get the number of shares we needed over the next two years out of the way.

That's why we did it.

It turned out we didn't need all those shares.

Worked out pretty well.

As far as Pennsylvania the rate case, I know that was a significant case.

Can you give me a little more detail?

I understand the allowed ROE was 11% which I think is the highest it has been in some time.

I think two things -- first of all it was fully litigated.

Usually we settle in Pennsylvania so it's hard to tell what the ROE is when you settle.

Pennsylvania as you know from a standpoint of water companies is very progressive.

They want infrastructure (technical difficulty) as a matter the legislature passed a bill, the biggest bill in the country as far as I know, of $1 billion -- I think it was $1.2 billion of new money going into infrastructure.

They really feel that the water and wastewater systems have to be repaired in the state.

So it's a trend I think more than just the commission and the entire legislature and Governor feel that way too.

It's a positive obviously.

We won most of the case that litigated issues that the consumer advocate has brought up very fairly.

Basically they had an opinion, we had an opinion and the judge sided with us on most of those which helped the final award.

And the ROE, we did get what we call bonus points for buying small companies, fixing them up.

The legislation allows if you'll take that risk and you're successful, that the commission can award you bonus points which is apparently what happened in this proceeding.

So obviously we think we were treated fairly by the Pennsylvania Commission.

So is there an official allowed ROE authorized?

Yes, 11.

Okay.

But that included the bonus points.

(inaudible) wanted to make sure you understood that.

Okay great and then the --

Another standpoint on an analysis, you can assume 11% ROE on the rate base in Pennsylvania.

Okay and then the Florida cases, is that -- how will that proceed?

Are there going to be a number of different districts deciding at different times or is it going to be somewhat of a uniform case with one decision?

And when would you expect that?

How much did you file and when would you expect the decision?

That's what we're hopeful for but obviously that is up to the Commission.

Florida has (technical difficulty) process they call interim rates while you wait for the final rates.

There's only two states that -- I think it's only two of our 13 states that do it that way but many states do it in New England and so on so it's not unique to Florida.

So there was an interim issue -- now there have been hearings held and our state President and our South President has been to every hearing and they're working on any issues that come up to try and fix them at those hearings.

Itis been a very constructive process.

And the commissioners actually attend all the hearings which is very rare for commissioners because it's a public hearing.

So we're hopeful that shows the interest of Florida in trying to get a good company that picks up some of the problems and these were problem cases that we inherited that had not been in for rates since early '90s.

A lot of then needed fix-ups and meters were old and we're changing all the meters, all that type of thing.

The process the way I understand it is that the interim rates are subject to bond and the case isn't decided until it's decided and that's probably -- what is it?

11 months?

I don't know what the litigated range is in Florida but they hold to a set range when they agree on the case.

The way we have asked for the decision is to be -- look at it as we look at it in most of our other states which is as one unit.

But right now they're all individual units that have to be merged into the one unit.

Does that answer your question?

Yes.

Well, do you have a number of what the total number of annualized revenues you filed for all of the (technical difficulty)

I'll have to give you that -- I'll tell you what.

If you don't mind after the call I'll get you the exact number.

Okay, that would be fine.

Thanks.

And we can tell you what we got in the interim.

I just don't know.

(OPERATOR INSTRUCTIONS) Heike Doerr, Janney Montgomery Scott LLC.

I'm hoping we can do a little more big picture topics.

So as we look at what the Company's strategy had been, historically we had used these four numbers -- four, seven, ten five.

I know we're shying away from this 4% customer growth and the dividend has been higher than 5% now for ten years.

Can you maybe re-frame how should we be looking at long-term growth strategies for the Company?

And as you try to fund more of your CapEx internally, does it make sense to be growing the dividend higher than this 5% level?

You sound like my Board members.

I would be happy to take a seat.

Right, that's annually reviewed and it's always debated.

You're exactly right.

With the fact that we really don't have to sell stock, the fact that our yield is now very high compared to what it has been traditionally, but not overly excessive compared to most utilities.

I think the yield of all the water companies now are in the 3 to 3.5 range.

And I think electrics are probably in that range or maybe even a little higher.

But we used all be in the 2 range so the stock price driving down and (inaudible) continuing to raise dividends, it's giving it a fair yield.

I think those are realistic things to look at.

But the bottom line is we want to build shareholder value.

And one way of building shareholder value is returning the profits in some reasonable way through either buybacks of stock which doesn't make sense if you're issuing stock at the time or through dividends.

So that's why we relayed the dividend policy.

We also have a number of long-term individual shareholders and sometimes the demographic is the people who have already retired and are looking at dividends for their income.

So we want to be careful not to abandon long-term shareholders who bought the stock with an intent in mind.

So we wouldn't do anything drastic but clearly it gets reviewed every year.

And I'll be glad to talk to you more in depth.

And you know we talk a little bit -- I know you mentioned it in the press release about the fuel costs coming down and the growth strategy of the Company.

When you look at states that you acquired from [Aquasource] where you don't have a large presence, has divesting more systems -- I'm thinking South Carolina and Missouri in particular -- is that something that is up for consideration to consider to kind of slim down states where it doesn't make sense?

The answer is everything in a portfolio is always under review.

It's almost like a mutual fund.

On the other hand, there is no way we would want to do anything in this position until we make sure it's operating properly and fixed because our reputation is at stake and that's why we put so much money -- we've not been making money in Missouri as you know.

But we are still doing all the fix-ups that -- I think it's called the DCQ or something but the EPA there wants and we have gotten the customer service billings -- they're all up to the standards of the Commission.

So I think our reputation as a Company nationally is at stake if we don't fix things before we decide if we are going to keep them or not.

That's helpful and one last housekeeping item.

Perhaps this is a question for Dave.

I know you guys had mentioned some of the charges that you took in the fourth quarter.

The charges that were associated with the Florida Keys being tabled, that was a third-quarter event.

Can you refresh us what kind of charges there were as you refunded customers and I think wrote down some charges?

It was about $0.01 but let me check.

Yes, you're absolutely right.

The third quarter is when Florida -- just for the people on the call, last (inaudible) we had entered a case, had received interim rate relief and I think it was like in an April timeframe, had been collecting the interim rates and then decided to withdraw the case in August so that we could re-file it in a way that we thought more in line with what the Commission and their staff and the OPC expected from a company of our stature which we've done.

That caused us to write off legal expenses, rate case expenses and refund all the interim rates which had been booked because when we got them, we thought they were good dollars.

So, Dave, I don't know what the total was and whether if we can give them (inaudible) that later.

About $2.5 million.

So there was a $0.01 charge in the third quarter and there were $0.02 of gains that you don't think will be repeated in the fourth quarter?

I think that's fair.

Right Bob?

That's helpful, thank you.

(OPERATOR INSTRUCTIONS) There are no further questions at this time.

I would like to turn the conference back to the speakers for closing comments.

That's it, thank you everyone for listening.

Again, this does conclude today's conference call.

And I would like to thank everyone again for participating.