Watsco Inc (WSO) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day and welcome to the Watsco third quarter 2024 earnings conference call.

美好的一天，歡迎參加 Watsco 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。

Please note that today's event is being recorded and all participants will be in a listen-only mode.

請注意，今天的活動正在錄製中，所有參與者都將處於僅聽模式。

(Operator Instructions).

（操作員說明）。

Also, please be aware that today's call is being recorded.

另請注意，今天的通話正在錄音。

I would now like to turn the call over to Albert Nahmad, CEO of Watsco.

我現在想將電話轉給 Watsco 執行長 Albert Nahmad。

Please go ahead sir.

請先生繼續。

Good morning.

早安.

Welcome to our third quarter earnings call and this is Albert Nahmad, Chairman and CEO and with me is A.J Nahmad, President; Paul Johnston, Barry Logan and Rick Gomez.

歡迎參加我們的第三季財報電話會議，我是董事長兼執行長 Albert Nahmad，與我一起的是總裁 A.J Nahmad；保羅·約翰斯頓、巴里·洛根和里克·戈麥斯。

Before we start, our usual cautionary statement.

在我們開始之前，先發表我們通常的警告聲明。

This conference call has forward-looking statements as defined by SEC laws and regulations that are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of these various laws.

本次電話會議包含 SEC 法律和法規所定義的前瞻性聲明，這些聲明是根據這些不同法律的安全港條款制定的。

Ultimate results may differ materially from the forward-looking statements.

最終結果可能與前瞻性陳述有重大差異。

Watsco produced record sales and net income for the quarter.

Watsco 本季的銷售額和淨利潤創歷史新高。

Our markets have shown signs of stability and the fourth quarter is off to a good start with October sales up mid-single digits driven by meaningful unit growth.

我們的市場已顯示出穩定的跡象，第四季度取得了良好的開局，在銷量大幅增長的推動下，10 月份的銷量增長了中個位數。

Let me say that again.

讓我再說一次。

October sales are up mid-single digits and driven by meaningful unit growth.

十月份的銷售量在單位數量大幅增長的推動下實現了中個位數的增長。

We also believe we have gained share based on industry data and shipment trends.

我們也相信，根據行業數據和出貨趨勢，我們已經獲得了份額。

We have also generated record cash flow this year and our balance sheet remains in pristine condition to enable investments in growth.

今年我們也創造了創紀錄的現金流，我們的資產負債表保持原始狀態，以實現成長投資。

As communicated in our press release, we are in recovery mode with one of our primary OEMs, a fairly large supplier of equipment to us.

正如我們在新聞稿中所傳達的那樣，我們的主要原始設備製造商之一（我們的相當大的設備供應商）正處於恢復模式。

We are collaborating with them and co-investing to make the needed investments to regain business and add new customers.

我們正在與他們合作並共同投資，以進行必要的投資以重新獲得業務並增加新客戶。

Moving on, we continue to make investments in the industry's most innovative technology platforms for HVAC contractors.

接下來，我們將繼續為暖通空調承包商投資業界最具創新性的技術平台。

Greater adoption and use of our platforms by a growing number of contractors has helped produce market share gains.

越來越多的承包商更多地採用和使用我們的平台，有助於提高市場份額。

Annualized E-Commerce sales now exceed $2.5 billion and our active users continue to grow faster than non-users.

電子商務年銷售額現已超過 25 億美元，我們的活躍用戶成長速度持續快於非用戶。

OnCall Air, which is Watsco's digital sales platform, continue to expand and generate growth for contractor customers.

OnCall Air 是 Watsco 的數位銷售平台，不斷擴展並為承包商客戶帶來成長。

Thus far in 2024, OnCall Air Contractors presented close to approximately 258,000 households, a 17% increase and generated $1.2 billion of sales for our contractors.

2024 年迄今為止，OnCall Air Contractors 服務了近 258,000 個家庭，成長了 17%，為我們的承包商創造了 12 億美元的銷售額。

That's a 22% increase over last year.

比去年增加了 22%。

We are also leveraging our technology platforms to optimize the launch of the new federally mandated A2L systems beginning in 2025.

我們也利用我們的技術平台來優化從 2025 年開始推出的新聯邦強制 A2L 系統。

Historically, regulatory change has been good for our industry and good for our business.

從歷史上看，監管變革對我們的行業和我們的業務都有好處。

In 2023, energy efficiency mandates went into effect, providing contractors the ability to upgrade older systems with higher efficiency systems.

2023 年，能源效率指令生效，承包商能夠將舊系統升級為更有效率的系統。

The trend to electrification of fossil fuel heating has driven increased sales of heat pump systems which are both sold at higher average unit prices than conventional alternative systems.

化石燃料供暖的電氣化趨勢推動了熱泵系統銷售的增加，這些系統的平均單價均高於傳統替代系統。

The growing penetration of ductless HDA systems is also made a catalyst for growth as they provide homeowners and businesses a more energy efficient alternative to conventional assistance.

無管道 HDA 系統的日益普及也成為成長的催化劑，因為它們為房主和企業提供了比傳統援助更節能的替代方案。

And now the A2L transition is upon us and we look forward to the opportunity.

現在，A2L 轉型即將到來，我們期待著這個機會。

Turning to our balance sheet, we have a strong cash position, no debt to support, and that supports most of our investment we choose to make.

談到我們的資產負債表，我們擁有強大的現金狀況，沒有債務可以支持，這支持了我們選擇進行的大部分投資。

Although we have produced record cash flow this year, we are still not satisfied with our inventory turns.

儘管我們今年創造了創紀錄的現金流，但我們對庫存週轉率仍然不滿意。

We are working with our OEM community and continuously improving our methodology to improve our inventory turns.

我們正在與 OEM 社群合作，不斷改進我們的方法以提高庫存週轉率。

We have also made progress improving operating efficiency across our network as evidenced by the modest change in SG&A year-over-year.

我們在提高整個網路的營運效率方面也取得了進展，SG&A 同比的小幅變化就證明了這一點。

But there is more to do.

但還有更多工作要做。

In summary, we operate in a great industry and in attractive geographical markets.

總之，我們在一個偉大的產業和有吸引力的地理市場中運作。

We have a proven entrepreneurial culture that empowers local leaders.

我們擁有久經考驗的創業文化，可以賦予當地領導人權力。

We possess the industry's most innovative technology platforms for HVAC contractors.

我們為暖通空調承包商提供業界最具創新性的技術平台。

We have leading scale and product diversity, particularly in high growth market.

我們擁有領先的規模和產品多樣性，特別是在高成長市場。

And finally, our balance sheet and access to capital enables future investments in our highly fragmented industry.

最後，我們的資產負債表和獲得資本的管道使未來能夠對我們高度分散的行業進行投資。

As always, if you have an interested in learning more, please visit Miami and see us.

一如既往，如果您有興趣了解更多信息，請訪問邁阿密並與我們見面。

We are transforming an industry and we enjoy telling you about it.

我們正在改變一個行業，我們很高興向您介紹這一點。

With that, let's now go on to Q&A.

那麼，現在讓我們繼續問答。

(Operator instructions)

（操作員說明）

David Manthey, Baird.

大衛曼蒂，貝爾德。

Morning, Dave.

早上好，戴夫。

Hey.

嘿。

Good morning everyone.

大家早安。

First question I have to ask is about the hurricanes, particularly Helene, which hit us pretty hard here in Tampa.

我要問的第一個問題是關於颶風，特別是海倫，它對坦帕的我們造成了嚴重的打擊。

Could you talk about the negatives and potential unwinding positives you might see from Helene and or Milton?

您能談談您可能從海倫和/或米爾頓身上看到的負面因素和潛在的放鬆積極因素嗎？

Well, let's see if we can get one of us to tell you at least what he thinks.

好吧，讓我們看看是否能讓我們中的一個人至少告訴你他的想法。

You want to take that, Paul?

你想接受這個嗎，保羅？

Sure, I can get it started and then somebody else can pick up.

當然，我可以開始，然後其他人可以接手。

But yeah, we had our branches shut down for a couple days for Helene and then we also had them shut down for another couple days with Milton.

但是，是的，我們為海倫關閉了我們的分支機構幾天，然後我們也為米爾頓關閉了幾天。

Most everything is back to normal now and obviously we're seeing an initial rush at least of repair components that are going out the door in October.

現在大多數情況都已恢復正常，顯然我們至少看到了維修零件的最初熱潮，這些零件將於 10 月出廠。

Milton came through so quickly.

米爾頓很快就過來了。

It really didn't impact us as severely as the other storm.

它確實沒有像其他風暴那樣對我們造成嚴重影響。

However, when you get up into the North Carolina, Georgia area, a lot more severe damage was done and we've.

然而，當你進入北卡羅來納州、喬治亞州地區時，我們發現了更嚴重的損害。

Yeah, it slowed us down, but it didn't really impact our sales that dramatically, more or less.

是的，它減慢了我們的速度，但它並沒有對我們的銷售產生多大的影響，或多或少。

Just to add to that, I've said for many years growing up in Florida and being in Watsco for 32 years that hurricanes typically disrupt local markets and may not have an impact on the whole market.

補充一點，我在佛羅裡達長大並在沃特斯科生活了 32 年，多年來一直說過，颶風通常會擾亂當地市場，但可能不會對整個市場產生影響。

And the reverse is true.

反之亦然。

If there's business opportunity, it's good for those markets and not necessarily material for the national scale.

如果存在商機，對這些市場來說是好事，但對全國範圍來說不一定重要。

I think the most obvious question and thought is that, when they talk about $10 billion, $20 billion, $30 billion of insurance investment that follows these things.

我認為最明顯的問題和想法是，當他們談論這些事情之後的100億美元、200億美元、300億美元的保險投資。

A portion of that always is our industry, be it equipment or non-equipment.

其中一部分始終是我們的行業，無論是設備還是非設備。

The materiality of that needs to play out sometime this year or next year obviously, but and that's how I've characterized it, at least over time.

顯然，這一點的重要性需要在今年或明年的某個時候發揮出來，但這就是我對它的描述，至少隨著時間的推移。

Okay, so.

好吧，就這樣吧。

But even though Florida is clearly your biggest market and Helene in particular ripped up the whole coast, you're saying it's fairly immaterial and we shouldn't view the mid-single digit growing up growth in October as just a temporary snapback from storm activity is what you're saying?

但即使佛羅裡達州顯然是你們最大的市場，尤其是海倫摧毀了整個海岸，你們說這相當無關緊要，我們不應該將 10 月份中個位數的增長視為風暴活動的暫時回升你是這麼說的嗎？

Absolutely not.

絕對不是。

No, it's a -- nothing is that material relative to helium and either disruption in the last week of the quarter or to a benefit for the first part of October, as very indicated, when the insurance kick.

不，與氦氣相比，沒有什麼比該季度最後一周的中斷或 10 月上半月的福利更重要的了，正如非常表明的那樣，當保險生效時。

The insurance is going to kick in within the next, let's say 30 to 90 days.

保險將在接下來的 30 到 90 天內生效。

So we really don't see equipment sold.

所以我們確實沒有看到設備出售。

What we see is the motors sold, the compressors, that type of.

我們看到的是出售的馬達、壓縮機等類型。

To start with.

首先。

Got it.

知道了。

Okay, thanks.

好的，謝謝。

Great.

偉大的。

Yeah, thanks for that.

是的，謝謝你。

And then on the gross margin came in a little bit light.

毛利率也出現了一些變化。

I know you had a reason for that here that you discussed with one of your major OEMs, but just medium term you still feel good about 27%.

我知道您這樣做是有原因的，您與一家主要 OEM 廠商討論過，但從中期來看，您仍然對 27% 感覺良好。

This is A.J. I'll jump in.

這是 A.J.我會跳進去。

The answer is yeah in the short term and the ambition is much higher than that.

答案是在短期內是肯定的，而且野心遠高於此。

I think we've talked about publicly.

我想我們已經公開討論過了。

One day we'd like to achieve 30%.

有一天我們希望達到 30%。

So our engines are revved up and we very much have a focus on gross margins and we're investing there and have high expectations.

因此，我們的引擎已經加速運轉，我們非常關注毛利率，我們正在這方面進行投資，並且抱持著很高的期望。

I think in the analysis, Dave, there's obviously the magic words are price and mix and price overall was pretty consistent this quarter.

我認為，戴夫，在分析中，顯然有一個神奇的詞是價格和組合，而且本季的整體價格相當一致。

So that's not really a discussion item.

所以這不是一個真正的討論項目。

Mix is where the variations are so far this year and for this quarter.

混合是今年迄今和本季的變化所在。

And the word mix is a broad term really.

混合這個詞確實是一個廣泛的術語。

There's customer mix, there's geographic mix, there's product mix, there's end market mix, there's brand mix, so a little bit of weight in those factors.

有顧客組合，有地理組合，有產品組合，有終端市場組合，有品牌組合，所以這些因素有一點權重。

If I spent 20 minutes explaining to you what I just said, a little bit of weight on margin this quarter.

如果我花了 20 分鐘向你解釋我剛才所說的話，那麼本季的利潤率會增加。

But those are short term conversations.

但這些都是短期對話。

And I think if you consider the A2L transition in front of us, if I look forward, it's really an opportunity to basically re-price and go to market with what will essentially be 60% new products over the next 12 months.

我認為，如果你考慮我們面前的 A2L 轉型，如果我展望未來，這確實是一個基本上重新定價並在未來 12 個月內將 60% 的新產品推向市場的機會。

So our OEMs who listen to this call, along with all of you, this is a very critical stage where we're making tremendous investments.

因此，聆聽這項呼籲的原始設備製造商以及你們所有人，這是一個非常關鍵的階段，我們將在其中進行大量投資。

Inventory is going to completely cycle a year over the next 12 months.

庫存將在接下來的 12 個月內完成一年的循環。

And pricing, marketing features and benefits mix, overall mix, is going to be critical over the next 12 months to drive margin.

定價、行銷功能和福利組合以及整體組合對於未來 12 個月提高利潤率至關重要。

I think one of the messages we tried to convey in the press release and I'll convey now is, and somebody will ask this question is where are we in terms of unit volumes and stability and things like that?

我認為我們試圖在新聞稿中傳達的訊息之一，我現在要傳達的是，有人會問這個問題，我們在單位數量和穩定性等方面處於什麼位置？

And year to date, unit volumes are positive in the quarter, they're overall positive for our selling season.

今年迄今為止，該季度的單位銷售量為正，這對我們的銷售季節總體來說是積極的。

Overall positive and positive.

整體積極向上。

To the extent that it's kind of conventional growth rates in units, I look at a longer term average.

就單位的常規成長率而言，我著眼於長期平均。

So if I try to consider stability as well as the opportunity in front of us, that's where we have some optimism in what we're doing.

因此，如果我嘗試考慮穩定性以及我們面前的機會，那就是我們對我們正在做的事情持樂觀態度的地方。

Tommy Moll, Stephens.

湯米·莫爾，史蒂芬斯。

Good morning.

早安.

Yes, sir.

是的，先生。

And thank you for taking my questions.

感謝您回答我的問題。

I wanted to start on some of the co-investment you described in the press release this morning alongside one of your OEM partners.

我想與您的 OEM 合作夥伴之一開始您在今天早上的新聞稿中描述的一些共同投資。

And it's a two part question here.

這是一個由兩部分組成的問題。

First part is where you did call it out this morning with substantial detail.

第一部分是您今天早上確實詳細闡述的內容。

Did something change since last quarter that prompted the enhanced discussion on this item?

自上季以來是否發生了一些變化，促使對此專案進行了深入的討論？

And then as you look forward, is there anything you can do to calibrate our expectations about how this ought to progress and ultimately fade?

然後，當你展望未來時，你能做些什麼來調整我們對這種情況如何發展和最終消退的期望嗎？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Terrific question.

很棒的問題。

Who wants to answer?

誰想回答？

Paul, Barry, A.J., Rick.

保羅、巴里、A.J.、瑞克。

Didn't mean to leave you out, Rick.

並不是故意把你排除在外，瑞克。

Yeah, I think, I mean, I'll go first and just add to it because it's an important point and in our collaborative spirit you'll get Insight into how we look at These discussions internally, I wouldn't say anything critically changed in the third quarter as an isolated event.

是的，我想，我的意思是，我會先添加它，因為這是重要的一點，本著我們的協作精神，您將深入了解我們如何看待這些內部討論，我不會說有任何重大改變第三季作為一個孤立事件。

We felt it's needed to kind of reconcile where we are year to date.

我們認為有必要對我們今年迄今為止的情況進行協調。

A year ago we talked about disruptions and whatever the range of revenue was, $150 million, $200 million of revenue at the time, you have to go back and look at the disclosures.

一年前，我們討論了顛覆，無論收入範圍是多少，當時的收入是 1.5 億美元、2 億美元，你都必須回去看看披露的資訊。

But a year later, the idea of recovering that business, growing volume, growing market share, re-establishing market share.

但一年後，恢復業務的想法，增加銷量，增加市場份額，重新建立市場份額。

These are markets like Florida, Texas, California that are huge markets, Carolinas as well.

佛羅裡達州、德克薩斯州、加利福尼亞州都是巨大的市場，卡羅來納州也是如此。

And there is a collaboration, there is a co investment.

有合作，有共同投資。

We use that term intentionally in the press release where we work with our OEM partner and try to figure this out.

我們在與 OEM 合作夥伴合作並試圖解決這個問題的新聞稿中有意使用該術語。

And this is the scorecard year to date, business and unit growth has outpaced overall growth rates for sure for that particular product group it better.

這是今年迄今為止的記分卡，業務和單位成長已經超過了整體成長率，對於特定產品組來說肯定更好。

And when we talk about pricing, there's more to it than just the price on the product.

當我們談論定價時，不僅僅是產品的價格。

There's again the mix of those products.

再次出現這些產品的混合。

And I'm not going to give too much competitive detail in this discussion in answering you.

在回答您的問題時，我不會在本次討論中提供太多競爭細節。

And the other is incentives that we chose to put on the street to not just get somebody back buying more from us, but getting new customers at the same time.

另一個是我們選擇在街上推出的激勵措施，不僅是為了讓人們再次從我們這裡購買更多產品，同時也吸引新客戶。

In other words, play offense with this opportunity.

換句話說，就是趁這個機會進攻。

And that is a shared cost and a shared experience with our OEM.

這是與我們的 OEM 共同承擔的成本和共同的經驗。

But we thought it was important to go ahead and kind of reconcile that scorecard year to date.

但我們認為，繼續推進今年迄今的計分卡是很重要的。

And that's what we've done.

這就是我們所做的。

Now as far as extent, as far as lingering impact, which is the second part of your question, there's some lingering impact, needless to say, in the fourth quarter and that dissipates, I would believe more so next year when again all the new ATL products will come in.

現在就程度而言，就揮之不去的影響而言，這是你問題的第二部分，不用說，在第四季度會產生一些揮之不去的影響，並且這種影響會消散，我相信明年會更是如此，屆時所有新的影響都會再次出現。

And we are kind of truly working on today a complete set of economics for those new products with all of our OEMs.

今天，我們正在與所有原始設備製造商真正致力於為這些新產品製定一整套經濟學方案。

And it's a chance to kind of recalibrate those economics looking forward.

這是一個重新調整未來經濟的機會。

Yeah, I'll just stress that our OEM partner here is truly a partner.

是的，我只是強調，我們的 OEM 合作夥伴是真正的合作夥伴。

They're a long time relationship.

他們是長期關係。

I think it's a successful partnership now.

我認為現在這是一次成功的合作。

It has been, it will be.

過去是，將來也是。

This is absolutely a collaboration with them and it's nice to have such a wonderful partner.

這絕對是與他們的合作，很高興有這樣一個出色的合作夥伴。

Anyone else before we move on here?

在我們繼續這裡之前還有其他人嗎？

All right.

好的。

I also wanted to ask about inventory and any pre buy dynamics we may be seeing.

我還想詢問庫存以及我們可能看到的任何預購動態。

Al, you talked about hoping to improve inventory turns and I did note that inventory dollars were up versus the second quarter, which is atypical.

艾爾，您談到希望改善庫存週轉率，我確實注意到庫存美元與第二季度相比有所上升，這是不典型的。

But is some of that just the 410A pre buy that we're seeing.

但其中一些只是我們看到的 410A 預購。

And what's the view there at this point?

目前的觀點是什麼？

Yeah, it is.

是的，確實如此。

Yep, go ahead.

是的，繼續吧。

Yeah, it is, it is the inventory pre buy on the 410 as each one of the OEMs has come up with a program to at least fill in for the 410 that they have to be able to manufacture and be completed by the end of the year and so some of them have asked if they could move the inventory quickly into our inventory so that we can be ready for at least the first quarter selling the 410A that should taper down at the same time that's tapering down.

是的，是的，這是 410 的預購庫存，因為每個 OEM 都制定了一項計劃，至少要填補 410 的空缺，他們必須能夠在 2018 年底之前製造並完成該計劃。有些人詢問是否可以快速將庫存轉移到我們的庫存中，以便我們至少可以為第一季銷售410A 做好準備，而410A 應該在逐漸減少的同時逐漸減少。

We're going to be bringing in the A2L inventory.

我們將引入 A2L 庫存。

So I don't see much of a fluctuation in the next quarter with our inventory.

因此，我認為下一季我們的庫存不會出現太大波動。

Yeah, Tommy, I would just add to that when we most OEMs have had their last call and those products are starting to get received.

是的，湯米，當我們大多數原始設備製造商接到最後一次電話並且開始收到這些產品時，我想補充一點。

And so I think as you look forward to Paul's point about, the next quarter or two, the seasonality around inventory probably looks different over the next quarter or two as we go through this transition.

因此，我認為，當您期待保羅關於未來一兩個季度的觀點時，隨著我們經歷這一轉變，庫存的季節性在未來一兩個季度可能會有所不同。

And then it probably picks up its normal seasonal cadence sometime middle of next year once 410 diminishes as a percentage of shipments and sell through.

然後，一旦 410 佔出貨量和銷售量的百分比下降，它可能會在明年年中的某個時候恢復正常的季節性節奏。

Really.

真的。

And a 2L becomes just a greater proportion of sales in our balance sheet as well.

2L 也成為我們資產負債表中銷售額的更大比例。

Makes sense and I appreciate the insight.

有道理，我很欣賞這種洞察力。

Thanks all.

謝謝大家。

Ryan Merkle, William Blair.

瑞安·默克爾、威廉·布萊爾。

Hey everyone.

嘿大家。

Good morning.

早安.

Just wanted to ask, on October to start, you said meaningful unit growth improvement and then mid-single digit growth.

只是想問一下，從 10 月開始，您說單位成長有意義，然後是中個位數成長。

Can you just clarify, what pricing is?

您能否澄清一下，定價是多少？

Because my assumption was pricing is still kind of running up maybe three, four.

因為我的假設是定價仍在上漲，可能是三、四。

So how do we bridge the mid-single digits if volumes are popping back positive?

那麼，如果成交量回升為正值，我們該如何彌補中間個位數的差距呢？

Yeah, I'll cover that.

是的，我會介紹這一點。

So let's be careful.

所以我們要小心。

Let's be careful.

我們要小心一點。

I'll give it to you in a spoon fed way because this is like critical data.

我會用湯匙餵的方式給你，因為這就像關鍵數據。

I'm not going to comment as much on specifics for October other than to say what we've said which is it's, meaningful unit growth.

除了說我們所說的有意義的單位增長之外，我不會對 10 月的具體情況發表太多評論。

But let's just be analytical about it and then we can talk the business side of it.

但我們先分析一下，然後再討論它的業務面。

So for the quarter overall units were up 4% and that includes both ducted products which actually declined 1% and ductless products which were up double-digits.

因此，本季整體單位成長了 4%，其中包括實際上下降 1% 的管道式產品和成長了兩位數的無管道式產品。

So it's a year to date trend.

所以這是今年迄今的趨勢。

It's probably an 18 month trend where our investments in ductless is paying off very well.

這可能是 18 個月的趨勢，我們在無管方面的投資得到了很好的回報。

Mitsubishi and Gree & Carriers brands and.

三菱和格力&開利品牌和。

And other brands that we sell in ductless have been doing very well, both domestic and international.

我們銷售的其他無管道品牌在國內和國際上都表現得很好。

So there's a bit of a story inside of that number.

所以這個數字裡面有一些故事。

That's our investment, our business units doing well with ductless products.

這是我們的投資，我們的業務部門在無管產品方面表現出色。

If I stick to what is more curious, maybe for the group is the ducted product, and we're interested in all of it.

如果我堅持更好奇的事情，也許對於該團隊來說是管道產品，我們對所有這些都感興趣。

But deducted product volumes were down 1% and price was down 1% in ducted products.

但管道產品的扣除產品數量下降了 1%，價格下降了 1%。

And again, that has nothing to do with deflation or average selling prices.

再說一遍，這與通貨緊縮或平均售價無關。

In terms of, price risk, that is mix.

就價格風險而言，這是混合風險。

That's what I'm alluding to earlier in the call, where if I look at brand mix, customer mix, and market mix, there's a little bit of a weight in price this quarter.

這就是我在電話會議早些時候提到的，如果我看看品牌組合、客戶組合和市場組合，我會發現本季的價格有一點權重。

For the year, for year to date, units are up 5% and unitary pricing is up 1%.

今年以來，單位價格上漲了 5%，統一定價上漲了 1%。

Induction pricing is up 1%.

感應定價上漲 1%。

And that's kind of like makes sense to me because the OEMs launched pricing earlier in the year.

這對我來說是有道理的，因為原始設備製造商在今年稍早推出了定價。

I think they've all kind of said about the same thing about it.

我認為他們都說了同樣的話。

And this is a year where price has not contributed really anything to the equation.

今年價格並沒有對這個方程式產生任何真正的貢獻。

And honestly, I'm quite glad our gross margins kind of look the way they look in the absence of any price.

老實說，我很高興我們的毛利率看起來像沒有任何價格的情況下的樣子。

And we know that's going to change.

我們知道這種情況將會改變。

We know that's going to evolve from here.

我們知道這將從這裡開始發展。

And I welcome anybody else's color.

我歡迎其他人的顏色。

Okay, well, yeah, that's helpful.

好的，嗯，是的，這很有幫助。

That explains it then.

那麼這就解釋了。

And then just back to gross margins.

然後回到毛利率。

Can we bridge 3Q back to 27%?

我們能否將第三季的成長率拉回 27%？

It sounds like parts and supplies were down, so there's a mix element that's occurring.

聽起來零件和供應品都減少了，所以出現了混合元素。

And then you also, you didn't quantify for the quarter, but this co investment.

然後，您也沒有量化本季的情況，而是量化了這項共同投資。

So just can we get back to 27% or what are the pieces?

那我們能回到 27% 嗎？

Go ahead, Rick.

來吧，瑞克。

Yeah, Ryan, I think you heard AJ say the answer is yes, and I think there's an upward bias to that over time.

是的，Ryan，我想你聽到 AJ 說答案是肯定的，而且我認為隨著時間的推移，這個答案會出現向上的偏差。

But let me try and start with.

但讓我試著開始吧。

I think the most important layer of margin, which we haven't talked about and has been consistent is our transactional margin, our invoice margin, which is the most basic form of margin that any distributor can have before you get to mix.

我認為最重要的保證金層，我們沒有討論過並且一直是我們的交易保證金，我們的發票保證金，這是任何分銷商在混合之前可以擁有的最基本的保證金形式。

And to Barry's point earlier, that transactional margin is constant versus last year in a year where there's been relatively no contribution to price at all in our gross margin.

對於巴里早些時候的觀點，交易利潤率與去年相比保持不變，而今年我們的毛利率對價格幾乎沒有任何貢獻。

That is a testament to some of the pricing technology that's been deployed and It's a testament to the work that our field leaders are doing on this subject.

這證明了已經部署的一些定價技術，也證明了我們的現場領導者在這個主題上所做的工作。

So then, so what do we bridge if transactional margin is constant and consistent with last year?

那麼，如果交易保證金保持不變並與去年一致，我們該怎麼辦？

And it's those four basic elements of mix that we've talked about.

這就是我們所討論的混合的四個基本要素。

It's firstly, a difference in growth rates between equipment and non-equipment that will always weigh on your overall margin to some extent.

首先，設備和非設備之間的成長率差異總是會在一定程度上影響您的整體利潤率。

Secondly, within equipment it is a difference in growth rates between residential and commercial.

其次，在設備內部，住宅和商業之間的成長率存在差異。

Residential has been in that low single mid, single-digit type environment and commercial has been higher.

住宅區一直處於低中位數、個位數類型的環境中，而商業區則處於較高水平。

We like that because we have profit dollars to account for that higher growth rate.

我們喜歡這樣，因為我們有利潤來應對更高的成長率。

But it does weigh and influence your overall mix.

但它確實會影響並影響你的整體組合。

Thirdly, and particularly in the third quarter, in a seasonal period, you tend to have a little bit more residential new construction than you have add on replacement, right.

第三，特別是在第三季度，在季節性時期，新建住宅的數量往往會多於新增的替換住宅，對吧。

It's a time where the builder channel gets a lot of things done and that tends to weigh a little bit.

在這個時期，建構者管道會完成很多事情，但往往會顯得有些沉重。

And it has been true that for the last year or two the residential new construction end market has been outpacing add on replacement.

確實，在過去的一兩年裡，住宅新建建築終端市場的成長速度已經超過了加建換市場。

You can look at the, the housing completion data to tell you that.

你可以看看房屋竣工數據就可以告訴你。

And then lastly is this element of customer mix which is, the hardest one to untangle in some ways.

最後是客戶組合這個要素，從某些方面來說，這是最難釐清的要素。

But if you just simply segment your customer base, you do see differences in growth rates.

但如果你只是簡單地細分你的客戶群，你確實會看到成長率的差異。

And what we see in our data is that larger, more progressive, more tech enabled customer is growing faster than his or her counterpart that is smaller and less sophisticated.

我們在數據中看到的是，規模更大、更進步、技術支援程度更高的客戶比規模更小、複雜度較低的客戶成長得更快。

So not to write a whole paragraph about it, but those are the three or four elements of mix that explain and help contextualize a year date margin profile that looks different.

因此，不要寫一整段關於它的內容，但這些是混合的三到四個元素，可以解釋並幫助背景化看起來不同的年份日期邊距概況。

I go back to where I started, which is the key point in all of this, is that transactional margin, same customer, same product, is very consistent with last year.

我回到開始的地方，這是所有這一切的關鍵點，即交易利潤、相同的客戶、相同的產品與去年非常一致。

Jeff Hammond, Keybank Capital Markets.

傑夫‧哈蒙德 (Jeff Hammond)，Keybank 資本市場部。

Hey, good morning, everyone.

嘿，大家早安。

Just on the A2L, new product introductions, just what kind of pricing are you seeing relative to kind of this, 10% to 15%.

就 A2L 而言，新產品推出，您看到的定價是多少，相對於此，10% 到 15%。

And as you talk with your major OEM partners, just address kind of their readiness, so there's no kind of hiccups as you transition.

當您與主要 OEM 合作夥伴交談時，只需說明他們的準備情況，這樣您在過渡時就不會出現任何問題。

Yeah, I can, cover part of that.

是的，我可以涵蓋其中的一部分。

And that is, among all of the OEMs that we talk to, everybody is ready.

也就是說，在我們接觸過的所有原始設備製造商中，每個人都已經準備好了。

As a matter of fact, one OEM has started their launch in the fourth quarter and we've actually taken equipment in and started selling a 2L.

事實上，一家 OEM 已在第四季度開始推出產品，我們實際上已經購買了設備並開始銷售 2L 的產品。

When it comes to the pricing, the pricing has been consistently, in the double-digit, low double-digit range, it's been around, 8% to 10%, some pricing a little bit higher.

在定價方面，定價一直在兩位數、低兩位數範圍內，大約在 8% 到 10% 左右，有些定價稍高一些。

But we're going to have to wait until probably the second quarter for that to be adjusted to find out exactly where that price settles.

但我們可能要等到第二季才能進行調整，才能確定價格的確切位置。

It's an unusual situation for each of the OEMs because it's a total new product line that's going to be offered.

對於每個原始設備製造商來說，這是一個不尋常的情況，因為它將提供一個全新的產品線。

And it's an unusual situation also that the consumer is going to have to buy a system now as opposed to in the past when we've sold the 410 product, they could just install the outdoor unit.

這是一個不尋常的情況，消費者現在必須購買一個系統，而不是過去我們出售 410 產品時，他們可以只安裝室外機。

And now you're not going to be able to do that.

現在你將無法做到這一點。

Technically, you're supposed to replace the indoor and the outdoor unit both.

從技術上講，您應該同時更換室內機和室外機。

So it's not just the raising of the price.

所以這不僅僅是價格的上漲。

It's also the idea that we're going to be selling more systems and less single unit replacements once the A2L becomes firmly lodged.

我們的想法是，一旦 A2L 牢固固定，我們將銷售更多的系統並減少單一單位的更換。

And that's going to be spread out over all 120 million units that are installed out there right now will at some point have to be replaced, all at various times.

這將分佈在目前安裝的所有 1.2 億個單元中，並且在某個時候必須在不同的時間進行更換。

But it seems to us that it's a wonderful opportunity not only for the price increase, but also for the system.

但在我們看來，這不僅是價格上漲的絕佳機會，也是系統的絕佳機會。

Okay, and then just a quick follow on that.

好的，然後快速跟進。

Can you just remind us that the multiplier effect, as you do the matched versus the standard, and then just maybe just touch on M&A environment.

您能否提醒我們乘數效應，當您進行配對與標準的比較時，然後可能只是觸及併購環境。

It seems like, the PE has gotten more crowded in this space.

看起來，PE 在這個領域變得更加擁擠。

And just what you're seeing in general

和你所看到的一般情況一樣

I can tackle the M&A piece here.

我可以在這裡解決併購問題。

I mean, it's.

我的意思是，是的。

Look, Jeff, there's always more M&A to do.

聽著，傑夫，總是有更多的併購要做。

There's no way to predict it or to think about a cadence of it.

沒有辦法預測它或考慮它的節奏。

And I would say that, private equity was a lot more prevalent in the space the last two years.

我想說，過去兩年，私募股權在該領域更加普遍。

That has subdued a little bit of late.

最近這種情況減弱。

And this is still bigger picture and longer term, a very fragmented industry.

從更大的角度來看，這仍然是一個非常分散的行業。

And I think what a lot of you all from the outside don't see as it relates to M&A is two things.

我認為，很多外部人士沒有看到與併購相關的兩件事。

One is that we're very focused on partnering with the right entrepreneurs.

一是我們非常注重與合適的企業家合作。

And that's different from consolidating an industry.

這與整合一個產業不同。

That cultural element of M&A is very, very important.

併購的文化元素非常非常重要。

We want the right entrepreneurs who will embrace our technology, embrace our growth spirit and our equity culture to help transform their business.

我們希望合適的創業家能夠接受我們的技術、我們的成長精神和我們的股權文化，幫助他們實現業務轉型。

So it's very much a cultural discussion oftentimes more so than a financial discussion.

因此，這更多的是一場文化討論，而不是金融討論。

And then the second thing that I would point to that, I hope leads to incremental opportunity going forward is today, our technology platform and our M&A discussions are essentially one and the same.

然後我要指出的第二件事是，我希望能帶來更多的未來機會，今天，我們的技術平台和我們的併購討論本質上是一樣的。

You know, we've always had access to capital, we've always had scale, we've always had great vendor relationships, we've always had an equity culture.

你知道，我們一直能夠獲得資本，我們一直擁有規模，我們一直擁有良好的供應商關係，我們一直擁有股權文化。

Those things have been constant for 35 years since we've been in distribution.

自從我們開始分銷以來，這些事情已經持續了 35 年。

What's different today and what has been different over the last five years is we've invested in this technology platform that I think now is well better understood, if not well understood out in the market.

今天和過去五年的不同之處在於，我們投資了這個技術平台，我認為即使市場上還沒有很好地理解它，但現在已經得到了更好的理解。

And it's leading to more and more discussions with long term prospects.

這引發了越來越多的關於長期前景的討論。

So my job is to help lead some of that.

所以我的工作就是幫助領導其中的一些工作。

And so I can speak to it with some pride.

所以我可以自豪地談論它。

And we want more of it.

我們想要更多。

Absolutely.

絕對地。

But I will also point out that as a $7.5 billion company now, we have a whole lot of internal levers at our disposal too, to grow.

但我還要指出，作為一家現在價值 75 億美元的公司，我們也擁有大量內部槓桿可供使用，以實現成長。

And we're not dependent on M&A to grow profitably in the future.

我們未來的獲利成長並不依賴併購。

Rick, this is A.J. I think what you said about these being cultural discussions more than financial discussions is so true.

瑞克，這是 A.J.我認為你所說的關於這些是文化討論而不是金融討論是非常正確的。

And it runs both ways where it really has to be a good fit for these are often multifamily, I'm sorry, multigenerational family businesses that we're saying, come be part of our multi generational family business and you be you guys with your leadership team and your branding and your customers and your teams, but do it under our umbrella and use all of our resources.

它是雙向運作的，它確實必須非常適合這些通常是多家庭的企業，對不起，我們所說的多代家族企業，請成為我們多代家族企業的一部分，你們就是你們的伙伴領導團隊、您的品牌、您的客戶和您的團隊，但要在我們的保護下進行，並使用我們所有的資源。

And those resources are capital.

這些資源就是資本。

It's equity to recruit and retain great people and these technologies which are all about helping you grow and helping your customers grow, because that's what we are all about, a long term sustainable growth for the business.

招募和留住優秀人才和這些技術是公平的，這些技術都是為了幫助您成長和幫助您的客戶成長，因為這就是我們的宗旨，即業務的長期可持續增長。

And those families and the leaders of those families that have joined our business over the last five, 10 years are really going back forever.

那些在過去五年、十年加入我們企業的家族和家族領袖真的會永遠回歸。

They are thriving in that environment, they are happy, they are still running the business, they are motivated and they're growing in many cases faster than our, if you would call legacy businesses, if you will.

他們在這種環境中蓬勃發展，他們很高興，他們仍在經營業務，他們充滿動力，並且在很多情況下他們的增長速度比我們的（如果你願意的話）稱為傳統企業。

So it has to be a fit.

所以它必須是合適的。

And when it is a fit, they seem to be home runs, which is what we're going for.

當合適的時候，他們似乎會打出全壘打，這就是我們想要的。

(Operator instructions)

（操作員說明）

Patrick Baumann, JP Morgan.

派崔克鮑曼，摩根大通。

Good morning, Al.

早安，艾爾。

Yeah, it's actually warmer up here than it is usually for this time of year.

是的，這裡實際上比一年中的這個時候要溫暖。

Just wanted to maybe quickly go back to something Barry said on units.

只是想快速回到巴里關於單位所說的話。

I think he said year to date up 5%.

我想他說的是今年迄今上漲了 5%。

Was that a total unit comment or was that.

這是一個完整的單位評論還是那個。

I assume duct did is not up that much, right.

我認為管道沒有上升那麼多，對吧。

Just maybe clarify that if you could?

如果可以的話，也許可以澄清一下？

Yeah, yeah, I should clarify that.

是的，是的，我應該澄清這一點。

So duct did is flat in units year to date and overall is up 5%.

因此，今年迄今為止，管道的單位數量持平，整體增加了 5%。

Which would suggest that this is up double-digits.

這表明這一數字上漲了兩位數。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

And then just to be like, even more refined, we mentioned this in the press release.

然後，為了更加完善，我們在新聞稿中提到了這一點。

If I look at our selling season, so I'm really looking at joint performance of our seasonal business, let's join together second third quarter.

如果我看看我們的銷售季節，那麼我真的很關注我們季節性業務的聯合表現，讓我們一起看看第二季和第三季。

So there's no push and pull, aspect to it, to the analysis.

因此，對於它的分析來說，沒有推力和拉力。

So for the season, second, third quarter combined ducted units are up 3% and overall up 5%.

因此，就本季而言，第二、第三季管道式機組合計上漲 3%，整體上漲 5%。

So when we talk about stability, that's the frame of mind.

所以當我們談論穩定時，這就是心態。

Okay, helpful.

好的，有幫助。

And then are you -- have you guys been.

然後你們──你們去過嗎？

I think we talked about inventory earlier.

我想我們之前討論過庫存。

You expect it to be stable through the end of the year, is your view.

您認為，您預計到年底它將保持穩定。

That is the channel restocking currently in terms of inventory?

那就是目前通路補貨的庫存量是多少？

Yeah, the channel right now is picking up 410 equipment which they'll pick up in November, December and January.

是的，該頻道現在正在領取 410 台設備，他們將在 11 月、12 月和 1 月領取。

And so yes, that it's not restocking.

是的，它不會重新進貨。

It's.

它是。

It's kind of a pull forward, if you will, into, it's first quarter sales, fourth quarter shipments.

如果你願意的話，這有點像是第一季的銷售額和第四季的出貨量。

It'll turn into first quarter, second quarter sales.

它將轉化為第一季、第二季的銷售額。

Right, right.

對，對。

Yeah, that I think the industry and included are bringing into our barns for the large part.

是的，我認為該行業和包括在內的大部分都進入了我們的穀倉。

Bringing into our Barns what we'll sell 410A products will sell through the first quarter.

將我們將要銷售的 410A 產品引入我們的穀倉，將在第一季銷售。

And as that is being sold through, we can't replenish them with the 410A unit.

由於該產品已售完，我們無法以 410A 裝置補充。

So we'll replenish them with the A2L units.

因此我們將用 A2L 裝置來補充它們。

Helpful.

有幫助。

And then one for you on margin, on the gross margin side, normally there's like a lift, I think from seasonality in the fourth quarter because the mix, which I guess hurt you in the third quarter typically improves somewhat.

然後是關於利潤率的，在毛利率方面，我認為從第四季度的季節性來看，通常會有所提升，因為我認為第三季對你造成傷害的混合通常會有所改善。

Is that reasonable to assume this year or are there factors like that, OEM investment collaboration that holds that back in the year end?

今年的假設是否合理，或者是否存在諸如 OEM 投資合作之類的因素在年底阻礙這一趨勢？

I think we should see some lift with the mix.

我認為我們應該看到這種混合帶來的一些提升。

As we get into the colder season, we start seeing more furnaces, more heat pumps, which have obviously higher margins to them and higher volumes.

隨著進入寒冷季節，我們開始看到更多的熔爐、更多的熱泵，它們的利潤率和產量明顯更高。

So without knowing what the weather is going to be in the fourth quarter I would say yes.

因此，在不知道第四季天氣如何的情況下，我會說是的。

Nigel Coe, Wolfe Research.

奈傑爾·科，沃爾夫研究中心。

Good morning, guys.

早安，夥計們。

Thanks for the time.

謝謝你的時間。

I think this is meant to be a cold winter according to the pharmaceutical.

我認為根據製藥公司的說法，這將是一個寒冷的冬天。

So if that's true, then it should be a little bit of help for you guys.

如果這是真的，那麼這對你們應該有一點幫助。

I know you cut a lot of ground.

我知道你砍了很多地方。

I don't want to retread ground we've already taken.

我不想重蹈覆轍。

Just on the gross margin, seems like there was a bit of lapping of price from earlier this year and you talked about mix and, and some OEM support.

就毛利率而言，今年早些時候的價格似乎有所上漲，您談到了混合和一些 OEM 支援。

Is there more discounting going on, especially at the higher tier levels?

是否有更多折扣，尤其是在較高等級的折扣？

Is that a factor at all in some of the gross margin pension?

這是退休金毛利率的因素嗎？

I think if you listen to Rick's comments, as a composite, we look at the most important metric, which is does the transactional margin have any material change to it?

我想如果你聽聽里克的評論，作為一個綜合指標，我們會關注最重要的指標，即交易保證金是否有任何重大變化？

The answer was no.

答案是否定的。

So I don't think, I'm not saying neutral is exactly what we want, but it means there's not been a risk factor relative to deflation, let's say at really any level of product group.

所以我不認為，我並不是說中性正是我們想要的，但這意味著不存在與通貨緊縮相關的風險因素，可以說在產品組的任何層面。

So I think it's more subtle and the mix of it.

所以我認為它更加微妙並且是混合的。

And I think again, Paul, you have a good insight into this.

我再次認為，保羅，你對此有很好的洞察力。

But the higher tier systems, the 16, 18, 20 plus year systems, really only came into existence in our inventory sometime late last year and has not really been a factor, if you will, in the sales process this year.

但更高層的系統，即16 年、18 年、20 年以上的系統，實際上只是在去年年底的某個時候出現在我們的庫存中，如果你願意的話，在今年的銷售過程中並沒有真正成為一個因素。

I think the movement of energy efficiency mandates that happened in last year kind of condensed, the base layer into a much more broad part of our business now.

我認為去年發生的能源效率指令的發展有點濃縮，現在已經從基礎層變成了我們業務的更廣泛的部分。

And Paul, maybe you have some perspective.

保羅，也許你有一些觀點。

Yeah, it happens every time we've gone through a change in standards with the federal government and that is there's a compression where a greater percentage of the industry moves towards standard efficiency.

是的，每次我們與聯邦政府一起改變標準時，都會發生這種情況，那就是行業中更大比例的公司轉向標準效率時會出現壓縮。

And with this last energy efficiency change, they basically increase the efficiency to roughly 15 seers from 14 seer.

透過最後一次能源效率的改變，他們基本上將效率從 14 個觀察者提高到大約 15 個觀察者。

And so when they did that, we definitely saw a compression where the high efficiency equipment shrunk as far as a meaningful size in the marketplace.

因此，當他們這樣做時，我們確實看到了壓縮，高效設備縮小到市場上有意義的尺寸。

Okay, that's helpful.

好的，這很有幫助。

Thanks guys.

謝謝你們。

And then just a couple of quick ones here.

然後這裡只是一些快速的。

Just on the A2L transition, obviously you've been through many of these transitions before.

就 A2L 過渡而言，顯然您之前已經經歷過許多此類過渡。

When you compare this to the 10 seer, 13 seer, 22 to 14, do you think the contractors, the end customers, are ready for this transition?

當您將此與 10 個預言者、13 個預言者、22 到 14 個預言者進行比較時，您認為承包商、最終客戶是否已準備好迎接這一轉變？

And obviously you're very close to those guys.

顯然你和那些人非常親近。

You provide a lot of training, support, etc. Are they ready for this?

你們提供了大量的訓練、支援等。他們準備好了嗎？

I think the consumer is probably not ready for this.

我認為消費者可能還沒準備好。

They don't really understand what's going to be coming at them.

他們並不真正明白將會發生什麼。

As you indicated earlier, it's going to be a system change out, not just an outdoor change out.

正如您之前指出的，這將是一次系統更改，而不僅僅是室外更改。

And that's going to be a bit of a sticker shock, I think, for some of the consumers once they see what the pricing is going to look like.

我認為，對於某些消費者來說，一旦看到定價後，他們會感到有點震驚。

So it's more than just the 10% price increase.

所以這不僅僅是10%的價格上漲。

It's also the entire system.

這也是整個系統。

The contractors themselves, I think they're going to pretty easily go through the transition.

我認為承包商本身會很容易完成過渡。

The only real change in the units is going to be on the inside.

單位中唯一真正的變化是在內部。

You're going to have a detector that's going to detect any sort of leak in the refrigerant into the home.

您將擁有一個探測器來檢測冷媒是否有任何形式洩漏到家中。

And then if it detects that there is a leak, it's going to turn the blower motor off.

然後，如果它檢測到有洩漏，它將關閉鼓風機馬達。

So it's not going to contaminate all the indoor air.

所以它不會污染所有的室內空氣。

That's the biggest change.

這是最大的改變。

Outside of that, the refrigerant itself is going to have a different component in it than the old refrigerant did, but it's still the base component in both refrigerants.

除此之外，冷媒本身的成分與舊冷媒不同，但它仍然是兩種冷媒的基本成分。

The 454 as well as the 32A is still 32A.

454和32A仍然是32A。

So it's going to be the same.

所以它會是一樣的。

The same refrigerant that we've had with 410A, basically.

基本上與我們使用的 410A 相同的冷媒。

Okay.

好的。

It sounds like it's not going to be a big deal?

聽起來好像沒什麼大不了的？

Yes.

是的。

I'll just add that it's our job to help them get ready from a technology perspective, product perspective, from a business and selling perspective from.

我只想補充一點，我們的工作是幫助他們從技術角度、產品角度、業務和銷售角度做好準備。

And then support them with helping them figure out what product they need and getting technical support and et cetera, et cetera.

然後支持他們，幫助他們弄清楚他們需要什麼產品並獲得技術支援等等。

And we do that at a scale and with a technology background that I think is unparalleled in the space and sets us apart.

我認為，我們的規模和技術背景在該領域是無與倫比的，使我們與眾不同。

And I think there's a big reason why customers or contractors choose to do business with a lot of companies.

我認為客戶或承包商選擇與許多公司開展業務有一個重要原因。

Okay.

好的。

Okay.

好的。

And then just a quick one, as I may.

然後我就快速講一下。

Obviously great news about October up mid-singles, and I know you said no more details on that, but I've got to say I'm a little bit surprised with the hurricane's impact in Florida and the southeast.

顯然，關於十月中單打的好消息，我知道你沒有透露更多細節，但我不得不說，我對颶風對佛羅裡達州和東南部的影響感到有點驚訝。

I know you've got some extra days selling in October, so is there some benefit from selling days in October offset and some of the hurricane impact, or am I off base there?

我知道你們在 10 月份還有一些額外的銷售天數，那麼 10 月份的銷售天數抵消了一些颶風的影響是否有一些好處，或者我是否偏離了基地？

Yeah, again, Nigel, it's something we track down to dollars and cents in terms of hurricane impact.

是的，奈傑爾，我們根據颶風影響來追蹤美元和美分。

And we had like the last two or three days of the quarter, and we had, three or four days for Milton this quarter.

我們度過了本季的最後兩三天，而米爾頓本季也度過了三、四天。

So I think if we have any pickup, it's been offset by disruption with Milton.

所以我認為，如果我們有任何回升，它都會被米爾頓的干擾所抵消。

And again, in relative terms, not that material of an event.

再說一遍，相對而言，這並不是一個事件的材料。

I think with the destruction that is obvious in these markets, there's a business opportunity that will flow once insurance money flows.

我認為，隨著這些市場明顯受到破壞，一旦保險資金流動，就會出現商機。

Nothing is immediate, but the word destruction I'm using purposely because that's what has gone on in those markets, there will be that opportunity once dollars flow.

沒有什麼是立竿見影的，但我故意使用「破壞」這個詞，因為這就是那些市場上正在發生的事情，一旦美元流動，就會有機會。

I also just want to report quickly just an important point.

我也只是想快速報告一個重要的觀點。

We have a lot of employees that we're in the path of these storms and very happy to say that everybody is safe and accounted for and those who have destruction in their homes or problems that we could help with, we are helping to the best of our ability.

我們有很多員工正處於這些風暴的路徑中，我們很高興地說每個人都很安全並且得到照顧，對於那些房屋遭到破壞或我們可以幫助解決問題的人，我們正在盡力提供幫助我們的能力。

We care very much about our team members and we're very thankful everybody came out on skate, relatively speaking.

我們非常關心我們的團隊成員，相對而言，我們非常感謝每個人都參加滑冰活動。

Steve Tusa, JP Morgan.

史蒂夫圖薩，摩根大通。

Hey, good morning.

嘿，早安。

Sorry, just to follow up to Pat's question, got a little bit late on the call here.

抱歉，只是為了跟進帕特的問題，打電話有點晚了。

Do you have complete visibility into, all the OEMs pricing for a 2L product at this stage?

您是否完全了解現階段 2L 產品的所有 OEM 定價？

Is there anybody that's, playing a little more close to the vest than others?

有沒有人比其他人保守一點？

Not just your suppliers, but kind of across the industry?

不僅僅是您的供應商，而是整個產業？

Yeah, we have visibility into every manufacturer's pricing.

是的，我們可以了解每個製造商的定價。

There's only one or two that right now have not really fully released their pricing.

目前只有一兩家尚未真正完全公佈其定價。

I think it's not that they're trying to be coy or sly about how they release their pricing.

我認為這並不是說他們試圖在如何發布定價方面含糊其辭或狡猾。

I just think that their timing is probably just a little bit off.

我只是認為他們的時機可能有點晚了。

But for the most part, we've got most of the pricing in.

但在大多數情況下，我們已經掌握了大部分定價。

And Steve, is that pricing going to hold throughout this entire transition?

史蒂夫，這個定價會在整個過渡過程中保持不變嗎？

That's the question we ask.

這就是我們要問的問題。

Do you think customers are looking at it as a bit of similar to a list price increase?

您認為客戶認為這與標價上漲有點相似嗎？

I think Most of the OEMs are pitching it as cost push, which is just inevitable versus hey, here's the new price, and then let the negotiations begin.

我認為大多數原始設備製造商都將其宣傳為成本推動，這是不可避免的，而不是嘿，這是新價格，然後開始談判。

Or how are most of them looking at it?

或者他們中的大多數人如何看待它？

I think most of them are very serious about this price, because they are adding costs or adding two new components to the system itself.

我認為他們中的大多數人都非常重視這個價格，因為他們增加了成本或為系統本身添加了兩個新組件。

So due to that, I think that, I think the pricing will probably be closer to the, the 8% to 10% range than the 15, but I think it's going to hold around 10%.

因此，我認為定價可能會比 15 更接近 8% 到 10% 的範圍，但我認為它會保持在 10% 左右。

That's why it's.

這就是原因。

Yeah.

是的。

So the 8% to 10% is kind of a bit of a discount to what they had previously said.

所以 8% 到 10% 比他們之前所說的有點折扣。

I think a little bit, but not that much.

我想了一點，但也沒有那麼多。

We'll have to wait and see and find out.

我們必須拭目以待並找出答案。

Yeah, All I got is opinion right now, you know.

是的，我現在得到的只是意見，你知道。

Yeah.

是的。

I want to remind you, I mean, maybe that maybe you're asking that question from an OEM perspective, but from our perspective, if we buy, say, $25 million of one SKU from an OEM, and the price is, quoted to us, we're reselling that $25 million at maybe 1,000 different prices depending on the customer, the market, the end market.

我想提醒您，我的意思是，也許您是從 OEM 角度問這個問題，但從我們的角度來看，如果我們從 OEM 購買 2500 萬美元的一個 SKU，並且報價為我們將根據客戶、市場和最終市場的不同，以大約1,000 種不同的價格轉售這2500 萬美元。

You know, there's variations, obviously on our selling price and more ironically, there's variations on our buy price depending on the intended, again, customer or end market.

您知道，顯然我們的銷售價格存在差異，更諷刺的是，我們的購買價格也存在差異，具體取決於預期的客戶或最終市場。

So this is an art form, more so than just strict analysis.

所以這是一種藝術形式，不僅僅是嚴格的分析。

And when we allude to technology that's helping us do that and raising margin over the last four or five years, that's where technology has played its role, is in that snowflake management, if you will.

當我們提到過去四到五年來幫助我們做到這一點並提高利潤的技術時，這就是技術發揮作用的地方，如果你願意的話，就是在雪花管理中。

We have a much more gifted capability than we had three or four years ago.

與三、四年前相比，我們擁有更有天賦的能力。

And in this transition, it's another chance to accomplish the same thing.

在這個轉變中，這是完成同樣事情的另一個機會。

And if we need to react to a market condition, we have our OEMs react to our cost.

如果我們需要對市場狀況做出反應，我們會讓我們的原始設備製造商對我們的成本做出反應。

So that fluidity is why this is hard to predict.

因此，流動性就是難以預測的原因。

But I can tell you why it's benefited us in the last three or four years.

但我可以告訴你為什麼它在過去三、四年裡使我們受益。

Right.

正確的。

And I guess your point is that, like, to take 10% or whatever and like, stick it into a model and a spreadsheet, like, it's a lot more complicated than that.

我想你的觀點是，例如，將 10% 或其他類似的東西放入模型和電子表格中，例如，它比這複雜得多。

A lot more complicated than that.

比那複雜得多。

As Barry alluded to all the variable price, I wish it was as simple as that, but it's not as simple as that because you do have the different market segments and you got originality to the pricing.

正如巴里提到的所有可變價格，我希望事情就這麼簡單，但事實並非如此簡單，因為你確實擁有不同的細分市場，並且你的定價具有獨創性。

Got it.

知道了。

One last one for you.

最後一張送給你。

Just on the light commercial side, everybody's had a pretty good 3Q.

僅就輕商業方面而言，每個人都擁有相當不錯的第三季業績。

One of your peers said it's a little bit slower in the fourth quarter.

你的一位同業說第四季的速度有點慢。

Any signs of weakening there on the back of fundamentals in the next year for, like, commercial?

明年商業等基本面有任何減弱的跡象嗎？

I think as the availability of the commercial product improved, I think we saw some reduction in some of the pricing.

我認為隨著商業產品可用性的提高，我們看到一些定價有所下降。

But as far as the demand has remained fairly strong.

但就需求而言仍然相當強勁。

We're still up double digit.

我們的漲幅仍然是兩位數。

And this concludes our question and answer session.

我們的問答環節到此結束。

I'd like to turn the conference back over to Albert Naumann for any closing remarks.

我想將會議轉回給阿爾伯特·瑙曼（Albert Naumann）發表閉幕詞。

Once again, it's always good to communicate to all of you.

再說一次，與大家溝通總是好的。

And we hope you'll be here for the next quarter numbers and performance.

我們希望您能在這裡了解下個季度的數位和業績。

So thank you for your interest in our company.

感謝您對我們公司的興趣。

And as we said earlier, it's winter.

正如我們之前所說，現在是冬天。

Why don't you come down to Miami and see us for yourself?

為什麼不來邁阿密親自來看看我們呢？

Bye-Bye.

再見。

The conference has now concluded.

會議現已結束。

Thank you for attending today's presentation.

感謝您參加今天的演講。

You may now disconnect your lines.

現在您可以斷開線路。