Watsco Inc (WSO) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

(multiple speakers) Hello. Good day and welcome to the Watsco, Incorporated third-quarter conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please note this event is being recorded.

（多人發言）你好。大家好，歡迎參加Watsco公司第三季電話會議。（操作說明）請注意，本次活動正在錄影。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Albert Nahmad, Chairman and CEO. Please go ahead.

現在我謹將會議交給董事長兼執行長阿爾伯特·納赫邁德先生。請繼續。

Good morning, everyone. Welcome to our third-quarter earnings call. And this is Al Nahmad, Chairman and CEO; and with me is A.J., President of Watsco; Paul Johnston; Barry Logan; and Rick Gomez.

各位早安。歡迎參加我們的第三季財報電話會議。這位是董事長兼執行長 Al Nahmad；和我在一起的是 Watsco 總裁 A.J.；Paul Johnston；Barry Logan；以及 Rick Gomez。

Before we start our normal cautionary statement, this conference call has forward-looking statements as defined by SEC laws and regulations, and are made pursuant to the Safe Harbor provisions of these various laws. Ultimate results may differ materially in the forward-looking statements.

在我們開始通常的警示聲明之前，本次電話會議包含美國證券交易委員會法律法規定義的前瞻性陳述，並且是根據這些法律法規中的安全港條款作出的。最終結果可能與前瞻性陳述有重大差異。

I'm pleased to report that Watsco generated healthy earnings and record cash flow despite a very challenging market environment. As you all know, 2025, a year of significant transition to next-generation equipment containing A2L refrigerants. The transition affected roughly 55% of products sold and influenced most every aspect of our business.

我很高興地報告，儘管市場環境充滿挑戰，Watsco 仍實現了健康的盈利和創紀錄的現金流。眾所周知，2025 年是向採用 A2L 冷媒的下一代設備進行重大過渡的一年。此次轉型影響了約 55% 的銷售產品，並對我們業務的幾乎所有方面都產生了影響。

Regulatory changes have historically been good for our business, and good for our customers. In the long term, we expect this transition to be no different. The transition is substantially complete, and we look forward to operating a far simpler business in 2026.

從歷史上看，監管政策的變化對我們的業務和客戶都是有利的。從長遠來看，我們預期這種轉變也不會有什麼不同。過渡工作已基本完成，我們期待在 2026 年開展一個更簡化的業務。

Throughout all of the volatility, we are satisfied that our earnings are largely intact. Our balance sheet remains strong, and our technology advantages remain immense. We certainly expect the volatility is temporary and will ease as the transition concludes. We operate in a great industry with strong long-term fundamentals and how the industry's most accomplished leadership team, all with long-term focus to keep building on our success.

儘管市場波動劇烈，但我們對收益基本上保持不變感到滿意。我們的資產負債表依然穩健，我們的技術優勢依然龐大。我們當然預期這種波動是暫時的，隨著過渡期的結束，波動將會緩解。我們身處一個擁有強勁長期基本面的優秀行業，並擁有業內最傑出的領導團隊，所有人都著眼於長遠發展，以不斷鞏固我們的成功。

Turning now to our third-quarter results, sales declined 4% in total and 3% in the US. While unit volumes remain subdued, we achieved double-digit pricing gains on the new products with growth in sales for both non-equipment and commercial refrigeration products. We again improved gross margins, which expanded 130 basis points to 27.5%. As we have expressed before, we have several ongoing initiatives to enhance gross margins long-term goals of exceeding 30%.

現在來看我們第三季的業績，總銷售額下降了 4%，其中美國銷售額下降了 3%。雖然銷售量依然低迷，但我們的新產品價格實現了兩位數的成長，非設備和商用冷凍產品的銷售額均有所成長。我們再次提高了毛利率，毛利率提高了 130 個基點，達到 27.5%。正如我們之前所表達的，我們正在採取多項措施來提高毛利率，長期目標是超過 30%。

Operating expenses increased 5%, reflecting a measure of ongoing inefficiency tied to the product transition, as well as new and acquired locations. With the product transition largely behind us, we expect SG&A performance to improve from here. We continue to fortify our balance sheet, reducing inventories and overall working capital.

營運費用成長了 5%，反映出與產品轉型以及新收購地點相關的持續效率低下問題。隨著產品轉型基本完成，我們預期銷售、一般及行政費用表現將從此改善。我們持續強化資產負債表，減少庫存和整體營運資金。

We generated record third quarter cash flow of $355 million, incremental opportunity in the fourth quarter as we close out the year. We remain fundamentally positive and optimistic about our position in the industry and our ability to generate growth. Our balance sheet has a healthy cash position and no debt, providing us with opportunity to invest in most any size growth opportunity. This includes the capacity to co-invest with our OEM partners as well as heading to 2020 -- as we head into 2026.

我們第三季創造了創紀錄的現金流 3.55 億美元，隨著年底臨近，第四季還有進一步成長的機會。我們對自身在行業中的地位以及實現成長的能力仍然保持積極樂觀的態度。我們的資產負債表現金狀況良好，沒有債務，這使我們能夠投資於幾乎任何規模的成長機會。這包括與我們的 OEM 合作夥伴共同投資的能力，以及展望 2020 年——展望 2026 年。

We also continue to invest in innovation and technology that separates us from our competitors. We have made long-term progress in driving adoption, I should say, we have made terrific progress in driving adoption. For example, e-commerce penetration continues to grow and accounts for 34% of our sales and up to 60% to 70% in certain US markets. Let me say it again, e-commerce penetration continues to grow and accounts for 30%, 34% of our sales, and up to 60% to 70% in certain US market.

我們也將持續投資於創新和技術，這使我們從競爭對手中脫穎而出。我們應該說，我們在推動產品普及方面取得了長期進展，並且取得了巨大的進展。例如，電子商務滲透率持續成長，占我們銷售額的 34%，在美國某些市場甚至高達 60% 至 70%。我再說一遍，電子商務滲透率持續成長，占我們銷售額的 30% 到 34%，在美國某些市場甚至高達 60% 到 70%。

The number of contractors and technologies -- the number of contractors at technicians engaged with our mobile app now stand at 72,000 users and grew an impressive 18%. That means it's 72% -- I should say, 72,000 of our customers are using our technology. The annual run rate of sales to OnCall Air, our digital selling platform for contractors saw a 19% increase in the gross merchandise value.

承包商和技術數量——目前使用我們行動應用程式的承包商和技術人員數量已達 72,000 名用戶，成長了驚人的 18%。這意味著有 72%——或者應該說，72,000 名客戶正在使用我們的技術。我們針對承包商的數位銷售平台 OnCall Air 的年度銷售額成長了 19%。

Products sold to the platform and reaching $1.7 billion over the last 12 months. We are also making next-generation investments to enhance our competitive position. For example, we are developing new technology aimed at capturing more sales from the institutional customer. We are accelerating the use of pricing optimization tools to make progress toward 30% plus gross margin target. We have launched a new initiative to peak and grow sales in the highly fragmented equipment, non-equipment, I should say, non-equipment market, which today is roughly 30% of our sales.

過去 12 個月，透過該平台銷售的產品總額達到 17 億美元。我們也在進行下一代投資，以增強我們的競爭地位。例如，我們正在開發新技術，旨在從機構客戶那裡獲得更多銷售。我們正在加快使用定價優化工具，以期實現 30% 以上的毛利率目標。我們推出了一項新計劃，旨在提升和擴大高度分散的設備、非設備（應該說是非設備）市場的銷售額，目前約占我們銷售額的 30%。

And we have begun to harness the artificial intelligence, both internally and externally offering potential to further transition our customer experience, improve operating efficiency and create new data-driven growth strategy. Our technology investments are making a big difference, and we believe the impact was only -- is only -- excuse me -- clear my throat -- will only grow in time. We look forward to sharing more during our upcoming investor meeting in Miami in December. I can't wait to see and meet you all this December. These investments, along with our scale, entrepreneurship culture and capacity to invest are unmatched in our answer.

我們已開始在內部和外部利用人工智慧，這為進一步轉變我們的客戶體驗、提高營運效率和創建新的數據驅動成長策略提供了可能。我們的技術投資正在產生巨大的影響，我們相信這種影響只會——現在只會——不好意思——清清喉嚨——隨著時間的推移只會越來越大。我們期待在12月於邁阿密舉行的投資者會議上與大家分享更多資訊。我迫不及待地想在今年十二月見到大家。這些投資，加上我們的規模、創業文化和投資能力，使我們的解決方案無可匹敵。

With that, let's turn to Q&A.

接下來，我們進入問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) Tommy Moll, Stephens.

（操作說明）湯米·莫爾，史蒂芬斯。

I want to start with a question on the repair versus replace dynamic. It's been a couple of quarters in a row now where your non-equipment business trends have been well ahead of the equipment trends. You've obviously been very disciplined on pricing for the new equipment. And so I'm curious is the simplest explanation here just that we're seeing some price elasticity among homeowners? Or is there something else you might call out?

我想先問一個關於維修與更換孰優孰劣的問題。你們的非設備業務趨勢已經連續幾季遠遠領先設備業務趨勢。顯然，你們在新設備的定價方面非常謹慎。所以我很好奇，最簡單的解釋是不是我們看到房主對價格有一定的彈性？或者您還有其他想指出的地方嗎？

I'm going to let Paul Johnston respond to that.

我將讓保羅·約翰斯頓來回應這個問題。

Yes. It's not a repair versus replace. It's a repair and replace. I think we said that on the last call. What we've seen is the larger dealers that have salespeople generally don't sell compressors and motors, they generally sell the equipment side.

是的。這不是維修還是更換的問題。需要維修和更換。我想我們在上次通話中已經說過這​​件事了。我們發現，規模較大的經銷商通常不銷售壓縮機和電機，他們通常銷售的是整套設備。

And what we see with the people that don't have an in-home salesperson is, they will repair the unit. So we see a dichotomy there amongst our customers.

我們看到，那些沒有上門銷售人員的人，他們會自己修理設備。因此，我們看到客戶之間存在著一種二元對立。

Also, there's a geographic spread where if you're in Illinois or Pennsylvania and you've got an 11-year-old unit in your house, you're generally going to repair it and not replace it. It's got a 20-year life. In Florida, Texas, where you've got a shorter life, I think, generally, you're going to replace it with a piece of equipment. So it's -- it's really difficult to put your finger exactly on where and who is creating a repair versus replace market.

此外，地理分佈也有差異，如果你在伊利諾州或賓州，而你家裡的冷氣機組已經花了 11 年，你通常會選擇維修而不是更換。它的使用壽命為20年。在佛羅裡達州、德克薩斯州等壽命較短的地方，我認為，一般來說，人們會用新的設備來取代舊設備。所以，真的很難準確地指出是誰以及在哪裡創造了維修而非更換市場。

And just some data behind that. When we say non-equipment, there are really two things that are not equipment parts and supplies. That's maybe be a more direct way of calling that category something parts and supplies. So parts basically is 8% of Watsco's revenues, parts. And supply is everything else is over 20% of Watsco's revenues.

以下是一些相關數據。當我們說非設備時，實際上有兩樣東西既不是設備零件，也不是耗材。或許更直接的說法是，把這個類別稱為零件和耗材。所以零件業務基本上佔 Watsco 收入的 8%。而其他所有業務的供應佔 Watsco 收入的 20% 以上。

So just in the scope of the bandwidth of that discussion, parts is -- we'll never substitute what's happening in the replacement market in that discussion. The data just doesn't -- isn't there to support that. So at the end of the day, it's the consumer that's spending $8,000, $10,000, $12,000 on a pair of new machines for their home. As Paul suggesting where we see in the Sunbelt, that's a more frequent purchase and a more ordinary purchase and a more necessity purchase, and we do see some differences as we go north of the Sunbelt.

所以，就目前討論的範圍而言，零件——我們永遠不會用替換市場的情況來代替討論。數據根本無法——或者說根本沒有數據可以支持這一點。所以歸根結底，是消費者花費 8000 美元、10000 美元、12000 美元為家裡添置兩台新機器。正如保羅所指出的，在陽光地帶，人們購買商品的頻率更高，購買的商品也更普通，購買的商品也更出於必需。而當我們往陽光地帶以北走時，就會發現一些差異。

So we do like it that Watsco's 75% of the Sunbelt in that respect. But it's really, I think, more of the crux of the answer is built on what are consumers spending on their homes right now. And that's probably the bigger orientation to this than whether we're selling more compressors or not versus the replacement market.

所以我們很高興看到沃茨科公司在這方面佔據了陽光地帶 75% 的市場。但我認為，答案的關鍵在於消費者目前在住房上的支出狀況。這可能才是比我們銷售更多壓縮機（而非更多用於替換市場）更重要的考量。

As a follow-up, maybe we'll address the elephant in the room here, maybe just take it on directly. Yesterday, Carrier mentioned that their October distributor movement was down 30% and that they expect something like down mid-20s for November and December? Does all that sound reasonable enough in terms of what you have seen or expect to see for your equipment business this quarter? And should we think of that in terms of volumes or sales?

作為後續，或許我們可以直面這個顯而易見卻又難以啟齒的問題，或許就直接解決它吧。昨天，開利公司提到，他們10月的經銷商銷售量下降了30%，預計11月和12月的銷售量將下降20%左右？就您本季設備業務的實際狀況或預期情況而言，以上描述是否足夠合理？我們應該從銷量還是銷售額的角度來考慮這個問題呢？

Well, that's a very good question. And I don't think we're out of the woods yet. So there's some merit to that. Who wants to add more to that? Is it you, Paul? A.J.?

嗯，這是一個很好的問題。我覺得我們還沒脫離險境。所以這種說法有一定的道理。誰還想補充什麼？是你嗎，保羅？A.J.？

I think it's pretty much in line. You got to remember that the shipment data that you're seeing was up last year as a lot of the OEMs were shipping all that 410 in. So the shipment data coming out of HRI really isn't going to be indicative of what's going on in the market. But when you look at the actual unit sales without the price increase, I think they're pretty much in line with what the market is showing. Now that's going to vary from region to region.

我覺得基本上符合預期。你要記住，你看到的出貨量數據是去年上升的，因為很多原始設備製造商都在出貨410。因此，HRI發布的貨運數據並不能真正反映市場現況。但是，如果不考慮價格上漲，實際銷量我認為與市場表現基本一致。這會因地區而異。

Once again, we're -- we're seeing some real strength in certain parts of the country, and we're seeing definite weaknesses in others. And so it's not across the board.

我們再次看到，該國某些地區表現出真正的實力，而另一些地區則表現出明顯的弱點。所以這種情況並非普遍存在。

But in aggregate, we are not seeing increase in demand. in the fourth quarter. And it's still below this time last year. Now this time last year, it was an extraordinary quarter. But nevertheless, we're seeing that, and we're dealing with, we're getting more productive in our operations and more efficient given the lower volumes temporary or lower. And we are adjusting to the circumstances.

但整體而言，我們並未看到第四季需求成長。而且目前仍低於去年同期水準。去年這個時候，那是一個非同尋常的季度。但儘管如此，我們看到，並且正在應對，儘管銷售暫時或較低，我們的營運效率卻在不斷提高，生產效率也在不斷提高。我們正在適應環境。

And just to clarify one -- Tommy, just to clarify one aspect of that is that the 20% to 30% is unit volumes, not sales dollars. I want to be clear about that.

還有一點要澄清——湯米，需要澄清一點，這 20% 到 30% 指的是銷量，而不是銷售額。我想把這一點說清楚。

Read my mind.

讀懂我的心思。

I mean, I mean just now a little bit of therapy about it, just to be, again, very direct about it. So we're clear a year ago, fourth quarter unit volume -- unit volumes for Watsco were up almost 20%, right, between 15% and 20%. And a year later, the variance is going to be exposed to that comparable, right?

我的意思是，我的意思是現在需要就此事進行一些心理治療，再次直截了當地說一下。所以我們很清楚，一年前，第四季的銷售量——Watsco 的銷售量成長了近 20%，對吧，在 15% 到 20% 之間。一年後，這種差異就會暴露在可比較數據面前，對吧？

And then after the fourth quarter is when things started to become, I would say, less extreme in that regard. So I think the fourth quarter a year ago is still in the context of the transition started. The 410A availability was at its peak, be contractors, builders, national accounts. Remember, it was drawing on distribution for 410A because they could get it. And it's really the last of the cyclical things in this discussion, I think, about the transition is the fourth quarter.

然後，從第四季度開始，情況在這方面開始變得不那麼極端了。所以我認為一年前的第四季仍然處於轉型期的背景下。410A 的可用性達到了頂峰，承包商、建築商、全國性客戶都使用了它。記住，410A 的分配是因為他們能夠獲得分配。我認為，關於過渡的討論中最後一個週期性事件是第四季。

Now, it's the smallest quarter of the year. It's off season and it will be -- there obviously is noise in the fourth quarter this year, but it really doesn't bear resemblance as we go forward into next year as a consequential trend, I would say. It's more about the comp a year ago than whether the market has changed any at all in the last 20 days.

現在，這是一年中最小的一個季度。現在是休賽期，而且——顯然今年第四季會有一些噪音，但就明年而言，這真的不會成為一個重要的趨勢，我想說。比起過去 20 天市場是否發生了任何變化，更重要的是與一年前的比較情況。

Sure. I think that last one summarizes the barrier, our pacing and the industry pacing is roughly the same, the comp changes in Q4.

當然。我認為最後一點概括了障礙，我們的進度和行業進度大致相同，第四季度比較變化。

Thank you all for the insight. I'll turn it back.

感謝大家的真知灼見。我會把它轉回去。

Rick, is there something you want to have in the work you've done?

里克，你希望在你所做的工作中達到什麼目標？

Yes. I think -- I mean it's -- obviously, it's been a a fluid market and one of the noisiest year -- years in our industry and just on memory. And by the way, with all that noise, our earnings are largely intact and I think that says a lot about the resiliency of our business model and of distribution in general. But if we step back, let's -- and examine kind of the big macro factors. We don't have influence over interest rates.

是的。我認為——我的意思是——很明顯，這是一個瞬息萬變的市場，也是我們行業多年來最嘈雜的一年，僅憑記憶就是如此。順便說一句，儘管外界有很多雜音，但我們的收益基本上保持不變，我認為這充分說明了我們商業模式和分銷管道的韌性。但如果我們退後一步，讓我們來檢視一下宏觀因素。我們無法左右利率。

We can't influence consumer sentiment or new housing completions or existing home sales. These are all things that impact the unit movement numbers that everyone is focused on. But we have control and we have influence over many other things.

我們無法影響消費者情緒、新房完工量或現有房屋銷售。這些都是影響大家關注的單位調動數據的因素。但我們對許多其他事情擁有控制權和影響力。

We have control over how many customers we serve, and that's been growing steadily over time. We have influence over our margins, and that too has steadily improved with more upside to go, we think. We have control over our expenses, and we're taking steps to improve efficiencies with the product transition now largely behind us. We control our inventory. And as you can see, we made great progress to improve working capital and cash flow in the quarter.

我們可以控制服務客戶的數量，而且隨著時間的推移，客戶數量一直在穩定成長。我們對利潤率有控制權，利潤率也穩定提高，我們認為還有更大的成長空間。我們能夠控制支出，並且隨著產品過渡工作基本上完成，我們正在採取措施提高效率。我們掌控著庫存。正如你所看到的，本季我們在改善營運資金和現金流方面取得了巨大進展。

We have influence on how we partner with OEMs, and we're right now developing aggressive growth strategies with our key partners for next year.

我們能夠影響與 OEM 廠商的合作方式，目前我們正在與主要合作夥伴制定明年的積極成長策略。

We control our balance sheet. It's -- and of course, it's never been stronger. And we control our technology, which is, I think, the most important competitive advantage we have and with more innovation being introduced right now in real time to help future growth. So even as we navigate this admittedly fluid industry dynamic, I think we've done a great job of acting on the things within our control, and we will continue to do so.

我們掌控自己的資產負債表。而且，當然，它從未像現在這樣強大。我們掌控著自己的技術，我認為這是我們最重要的競爭優勢，而我們現在正在即時引入更多創新，以幫助未來的成長。因此，即使我們正在應對這個瞬息萬變的行業動態，我認為我們在可控範圍內已經做得非常出色，我們將繼續這樣做。

Ryan Merkel, William Blair.

瑞安·默克爾，威廉·布萊爾。

I want to follow up on the fourth quarter. Could you just comment on what you've seen quarter-to-date in terms of total sales?

我想跟進一下第四季的情況。能否請您就本季迄今的總銷售額情況做個評價？

It's soft.

它很柔軟。

Okay. Got you. So yes, it sounds like your biggest supplier is talking about units down 30%, it sounds like we don't we disagree with that?

好的。抓到你了。所以，聽起來你們最大的供應商說銷售量下降了30%，我們對此表示異議，對嗎？

No, no. We're not in that arena of softness on any decline. It's a single digit probably mid-single digit so far in revenue.

不，不。我們目前的情況還遠遠未達到那種下滑時的疲軟程度。目前來看，營收可能只有個位數，大概在個位數中段。

Okay. That's helpful. Okay. So mid-single-digit decline. And then --

好的。那很有幫助。好的。所以是中等個位數的跌幅。進而--

in the single digit now and maybe a little bit higher in the start of the quarter. I would say, more accurately, is Barry, what is it 5%, 10% in that area?

目前是中位數，季度初可能會略高一些。更準確地說，巴里在那個地區的佔比是 5% 還是 10%？

Yes. I would give that a range in October. It's not the rest of the year. But in that 5% to 10% range decline in dollars is how I'd characterize it.

是的。我會在十月給出一個大概的範圍。一年中的其他時間可不一樣。但我會將其描述為美元下跌 5% 到 10%。

Okay. All right. That's not too different than I think most of us were expecting. And then I'm curious, if you talk about the third quarter, the shape of the quarter, it sounded like July started off kind of flat, right, year-over-year. And then from what I heard, August was really rough September was also tough.

好的。好的。這和我們大多數人的預期差不多。然後我很好奇，如果你談到第三季度，這個季度的走勢，聽起來7月份的開局有點平淡，對吧，與去年同期相比。我聽說，八月情況非常糟糕，九月也很艱難。

So two-part question. Is that what you saw? And then what do you think the reason is that the unit volume just fell off so much in August and September?

所以這個問題分成兩個部分。你看到的就是這些嗎？那麼，你認為8月和9月銷量大幅下滑的原因是什麼？

Paul, do you want to deal with that?

保羅，你想處理這件事嗎？

I don't know, Barry, do you want to grab that one?

巴里，我不知道，你想拿下那個嗎？

Because contractors installed fewer systems.

因為承包商安裝的系統數量較少。

Yes. Yes. I mean, again, if we consider the number of units that did decline, put it in a unit number and then ask the question, what makes up -- what makes up the -- what are the components of the unit decline. New construction is the largest component of that discussion. We can see our customers, we can see the special pricing we give.

是的。是的。我的意思是，再說一遍，如果我們考慮一下下降的單位數量，把它轉換成一個單位數字，然後問這個問題，是什麼構成了——是什麼構成了——單位下降的組成部分是什麼。新建項目是該討論中佔比最大的部分。我們可以看到我們的客戶，也可以看到我們提供的特價優惠。

We can count the number of units we sell into new construction, and it was down -- as a percentage down the most in that overall discussion.

我們可以統計一下我們在新房屋中銷售的單位數量，結果顯示，這個數字下降了——在所有討論中，這個數字的降幅最大。

And I don't know offhand if that got worse in August and September, that's a little granular for my brain this morning, right? But that's the largest component of the discussion. So if interest rates or homebuilding activity or existing home sales get generated in the forward period over the next 12 months, that's an opportunity because that is the largest component of both the quarter and the year-to-date decline in units.

我一時想不起來八月和九月情況是否惡化，今天早上我的腦子有點兒記不住這些細節，對吧？但這是討論中最重要的一部分。因此，如果未來 12 個月的利率、房屋建造活動或現有房屋銷售出現增長，那將是一個機會，因為這是本季度和今年迄今為止房屋數量下降的最大組成部分。

And the -- in terms of the replacement market and everything else, there's always a measure of consumer discretion always when a contractor walks in and says, this thing will cost you $10,000, $12,000. And to the extent the consumer is either tighter or worried or credit crunched or more paralyzed in some way about spending $10,000, $12,000 or more on something, it's going to affect -- did that get worse in August and September? It looks like it. Is it permanent or temporary? Is it long term or short term?

就更換市場和其他所有方面而言，當承包商走進來來說，這東西要花你 10,000 美元、12,000 美元時，消費者總會有一定的自由裁量權。如果消費者因為擔心、信貸緊縮或在某些方面對花費 10,000 美元、12,000 美元或更多購買某件商品而感到更加猶豫不決，那麼這將會產生影響——這種情況在 8 月和 9 月是否變得更糟了？看起來是這樣。是永久性的還是暫時的？是長期的還是短期的？

We'll see. At least in our industry's history, it's never long term. It's always a short-term dynamic. And -- but anyway, just some big picture thoughts on that.

我們拭目以待。至少在我們行業的歷史上，這種情況從來都不是長期的。這始終是一種短期動態。不過，總之，我對這件事有一些宏觀的想法。

Okay. I appreciate it. I know that's kind of a hard question to answer, so I appreciate you entertaining it. I'll pass it on.

好的。謝謝。我知道這個問題有點難回答，所以很感謝你願意思考這個問題。我會轉達的。

David Manthey, Baird.

David Manthey，Baird。

I feel like I'm in a parallel universe here in 25 years covering Watsco. This is the closest kind of come to guidance. It's pretty amazing. But -- as long as we're talking about it, the minus 5% to 10% revenue declines in the fourth quarter. We're talking about equipment only there, correct?

感覺就像身處平行宇宙，25年後我在這裡報道Watsco。這是最接近指導的方式。真是太神奇了。但是——既然說到這裡了，就不得不提一下第四季營收下降了 5% 到 10%。我們這裡只討論設備，對吧？

We did not give guidance. We did not give guidance. We gave a percentage of what we see thus far in the quarter in October.

我們沒有提供指導。我們沒有提供指導。我們在10月份公佈了本季迄今的業績百分比。

But in equipment, Barry, right?

但是裝備方面，巴里，對吧？

No, that's overall. Yes.

不，那是總體情況。是的。

Overall. Okay. Fair. Fair. Okay.

全面的。好的。公平的。公平的。好的。

All right. And then if you believe in this -- the normalization theme here, you have a lot of cash, no debt, a healthy dividend. You've always invested organically as needed. The stock seems to be on sale here. Is there a thought about allocating some of your cash forward to more aggressive share repurchase at these levels?

好的。如果你相信這一點——這裡的正常化主題——你就會擁有大量現金、沒有債務、以及可觀的股息。你一直以來都根據需要進行穩健的投資。這裡似乎正在打折銷售這支股票。您是否考慮過將部分現金用於在當前價位更積極地回購股票？

That's an excellent question, and I thought about it. We thought about it. But on the other hand, the softness in the industry creates perhaps opportunities for us to do more acquisitions, because, I would say, when we compare our financial strength to others, we're at the top of the heap. And there may be some distributors that finally want to venture with us, either a joint venture or sell to us altogether. We don't know, but we have to remain open to the possibility that we may be able to step up our acquisition activity.

這是一個很好的問題，我仔細考慮過了。我們考慮過了。但另一方面，產業的疲軟或許為我們創造了更多收購的機會，因為，我想說，當我們把我們的財務實力與其他公司進行比較時，我們處於領先地位。或許會有一些經銷商最終願意與我們合作，無論是成立合資企業還是直接向我們供貨。我們不知道，但我們必須保持開放態度，不排除我們能夠加強收購力度的可能性。

I don't know that it's going to happen, but we have to be ready to do that. And we will use our capital to acquire more distributors that we have that opportunity.

我不知道這件事是否會發生，但我們必須做好應對準備。我們將利用我們的資金，在有機會的時候收購更多的經銷商。

Yes. I appreciate that, Al.

是的。謝謝你，艾爾。

Jeffrey Sprague, Vertical Research Partners.

Jeffrey Sprague，Vertical Research Partners。

I just want to come back to inventories. It was nice to see that sequential step down in Q3. Just want to think about where we end the year. Obviously, a lot of that depends on things so you said you can't control like end demand in the consumer and all those sorts of things. But what is your view at this point in time of sort of how you end the year, how close to normal inventories you might be as you obviously then start to pivot to focus into 2026?

我只想回到庫存管理部分。很高興看到第三季業績逐步下滑。只想想想我們今年會走到哪一步。顯然，很多因素取決於你所說的你無法控制的因素，例如消費者的最終需求等等。但就目前而言，您如何看待今年的收官？您的庫存水準與正常水準的差距有多大？顯然，您之後將開始把重心轉移到 2026 年。

Well, I would say that maybe in general reply as a incremental specific fourth quarter, we want to increase our inventory turns. And that effort will continue into the fourth quarter and in the future. So we're going to get better at inventory turns. And that's our goal. So I think I've answered your question.

嗯，我想說的是，總體而言，作為第四季度的一個具體改進措施，我們希望提高庫存週轉率。這項工作將持續到第四季及以後。所以我們要提高庫存週轉率。這就是我們的目標。我想我已經回答你的問題了。

That is a focus, and we certainly have the capability with our technology and do something about it. And we're doing it, as you can tell, the inventory is coming down, and it's coming down again in the fourth quarter. And the turns are slightly increasing, more cash for us. So we like that.

這是我們的重點，而且憑藉我們的技術，我們完全有能力解決這個問題。正如你所看到的，我們正在努力做到這一點，庫存正在下降，而且在第四季還會繼續下降。轉手次數略有增加，我們可以賺更多錢。我們很喜歡這一點。

And like more cash too.

而且也喜歡更多的現金。

There's really two curiosities and the one you're asking about is will our distribution channel at Watsco be in a more conventional position, right? That's your -- and that's really almost an OEM orientation that then asked the question, has the inventory been reset in line with some kind of -- so you understand what I'm saying. So -- and so yes, there's a lot of progress in the third quarter, more progress in the fourth. You could look analytically where are we today versus history and answer the question, and I can help you with that. But what Al was saying is how does inventory affect us looking forward.

實際上有兩個疑問，你問的那個疑問是，我們在Watsco的分銷管道是否會處於更傳統的位置，對嗎？這就是你的——這實際上幾乎是OEM導向，然後提出了一個問題，庫存是否已根據某種——所以你明白我的意思。所以——是的，第三季取得了很大進展，第四季將取得更多進展。你可以分析我們今天與歷史的對比，從而回答這個問題，我可以在這方面幫助你。但艾爾想表達的是，庫存會如何影響我們未來的發展。

What if we had five inventory turns instead of four? What would that do to our return on invested capital? What would that do to our real estate? What would that do to our cash flow? What would it do to the overall handling and load that we carry in our stores if we had less inventory and better turns?

如果我們把庫存週轉次數從四次增加到五次呢？那會對我們的投資報酬率產生什麼影響？那會對我們的房地產市場造成什麼影響？那會對我們的現金流造成什麼影響？如果我們減少庫存並提高庫存週轉率，這對我們門市的整體搬運和貨物運輸會產生什麼影響？

What if we had better technology with our OEMs to replenish our stock every day? Those are the bigger -- those are the things we are focused on, while trying to reduce inventory by the end of the year. And you can understand that it's a longer-term perspective from our point of view.

如果我們能與原始設備製造商 (OEM) 合作，採用更先進的技術來每天補充庫存，那該有多好？這些才是更重要的事——這些是我們關注的重點，同時我們也要努力在年底前減少庫存。您可以理解，這是我們從長遠角度出發的考量。

And while we're just trying to get the year-end inventory in line to have a, frankly, a strong hand, a strong capital base to flow into next year. And so I think we said last quarter, we were targeting $500 million of reductions by year-end. And second quarter -- or third quarter was $350 million of that. I think we can improve on the $500 million target. It's a slower time of year to say that, but by the end of the year, I think inventories will be near historical levels versus the size of our company.

坦白說，我們只是想讓年底庫存恢復正常，以便為明年打下堅實的基礎，擁有強大的資金實力。所以我覺得我們上個季度說過，我們的目標是在年底前削減 5 億美元的開支。第二季（或第三季）佔了其中的 3.5 億美元。我認為我們可以超越5億美元的目標。現在說這話可能有點晚了，但到年底，我認為相對於我們公司的規模而言，庫存將接近歷史水平。

Let me say, again, yes, when we say inventory turns, we are presently at about 3.6, 3.7. We want to be a lot better than that, very user numbers, but you were just throwing members out there. I'm giving you more specific numbers. So we have an opportunity to significantly improve inventory turns, which also significantly increases our cash flow, and becomes a more productive part of our business with higher inventory turns.

我再說一遍，是的，我們說的庫存週轉率目前大約是 3.6 到 3.7。我們希望做得更好，這是基於用戶數據，但你剛才只是隨便舉了幾個例子。我給你更具體的數字。因此，我們有機會大幅提高庫存週轉率，從而大幅增加現金流，更高的庫存週轉率也使庫存成為我們業務中更有效率的部分。

And we have the ability to get our contract manufacturers to participate in that because generally, we're the largest customer, and we have the largest impact on the unmet market. And that's what we're doing with them and with our own technology to do better with what we have to achieve the high returns. But I like it. I like high returns, and I like higher cash flow. I mean we're at $600 million in cash flow right now in the bank.

而且我們有能力讓我們的合約製造商參與其中，因為一般來說，我們是最大的客戶，我們對未滿足的市場有著最大的影響。這就是我們利用現有資源和自身技術來更好地利用現有資源以實現高回報的方式。但我喜歡它。我喜歡高回報，也喜歡更高的現金流。我的意思是，我們目前銀行帳戶裡有 6 億美元的現金流。

I'd like to see that number get larger because I'd like to have the ability to do almost any transaction that comes our way. And I don't like going into debt for it. I'd like to have the capacity to do what we need to do with the cash we have.

我希望這個數字能夠持續成長，因為我希望能夠處理幾乎所有遇到的交易。我不喜歡為此背負債務。我希望我們有能力利用現有資金做我們需要做的事情。

Great. Well, thank you for that thorough answer. I'll pass the baton and give somebody else an opportunity. Appreciate it. See you in December.

偉大的。非常感謝您的詳細解答。我會把接力棒傳下去，給其他人一個機會。謝謝。十二月見。

Good. I'm glad your comment.

好的。很高興收到你的評論。

Chris Snyder, Morgan Stanley.

克里斯‧史奈德，摩根士丹利。

I wanted to follow up on some of that inventory conversation. It seems like you guys believe you'll be at like a roughly more normalized level to exit the year. But I guess my question is, should we expect the normal kind of typical ramp in inventories from year-end into Q2 that we've seen you guys do historically? Or could that be more muted just kind of given the inventory backdrop?

我想就庫存方面的一些討論做個後續跟進。看來你們認為到年底時，你們的水準會大致恢復到正常水準。但我的問題是，我們是否應該預期你們會像以往一樣，從年底到第二季出現正常的庫存成長？或者考慮到庫存的背景，這種效果可以更柔和一些？

Well, that's an interesting question, and I can only say that we're trying to get better in the management of our inventory. So history is not -- is that depend what we're going to do as we go forward this year. I think whatever we're doing cash, we'll do better. Go ahead, Paul.

嗯，這是一個很好的問題，我只能說我們正在努力改進庫存管理。所以歷史並非如此——這取決於我們今年接下來要做什麼。我認為，如果我們用現金交易，情況會更好。請繼續，保羅。

Yes. Think about the last five, six years in our industry. We've had -- we had the change in industry standards on efficiency than we had the change in refrigerant come at us. Then we had the pandemic. It hasn't been normal on a lead time basis with our OEMs for the last four, five, six years.

是的。想想我們行業過去五、六年的發展。我們經歷了──我們經歷了能源效率產業標準的改變，然後又經歷了冷媒的改變。然後我們就經歷了新冠疫情。在過去四、五、六年裡，我們與原始設備製造商 (OEM) 的交貨週期一直不正常。

So for us to get back to normal again, as Barry was talking about, means that we order something and we get it within four to six weeks. And we don't have lead times that extend out beyond that and that the manufacturers can go ahead and supply us in a timely manner, and that's how you adapt your inventory to get to a five turn.

所以，正如巴里所說，要恢復正常，就意味著我們訂購東西，然後在四到六週內收到。而且我們的交貨週期不會超過這個期限，製造商可以及時向我們供貨，這就是你調整庫存以實現五週轉率的方法。

And we're trying to get cooperation in the manufacturer to do better in deliveries. Whatever they have to do to deliver much quicker with less lead time. And that's part of the effort. And because of who we are in our size, they listen to us. I hope -- I'm hoping, but I think they will.

我們正在努力爭取製造商的配合，以改善交貨情況。他們會不惜一切代價，以更短的交貨週期更快地交付產品。這也是努力的一部分。正因為我們身材矮小，他們才會聽我們的。我希望——我真的希望如此，而且我認為他們會的。

I appreciate that. Maybe to follow up on price. The OEMs that have reported so far talked about an expectation of incremental price in '26. Maybe a bit of a surprise, given what seems like affordability challenges and just overall headwinds facing the consumer, I guess what is your thoughts on that? And do you feel like just given the balance sheet and maybe the absorption headwinds that they're facing, do you feel like that gives you guys better ability to push back or negotiate than years past?

我很感激。或許是為了跟進價格。到目前為止，已發布報告的原始設備製造商都談到了對 2026 年價格上漲的預期。考慮到消費者面臨的購買力挑戰和整體不利因素，這或許有點出人意料，您對此有何看法？鑑於目前的資產負債表以及可能面臨的吸收困難，您是否覺得這讓您比往年更有能力進行反擊或談判？

Well, I can answer that question --

嗯，我可以回答這個問題。--

That's a tough question.

這是一個棘手的問題。

We're a good customer of our manufacturers and I like to think that we can -- we're listening and we will listen to them, and we'd like to get along with our manufacturers and I don't know, I don't answer that any better than that.

我們是製造商的好客戶，我喜歡認為我們可以——我們正在傾聽，並且會繼續傾聽他們的意見，我們希望與製造商相處融洽，我不知道，我對此沒有更好的回答了。

Yes. Bottom line, though, when you look at the average transaction out there, our value content to the contractor is generally about 30% to 40%. So if it's a $12,000 installation, the amount of product that we're selling is going to be in the, let's say, $3,000 to $4,000 range. So a price increase at that point is going to increase, let's say, they go up pick a number. If they go up $100, it's not going to be a major transaction halt to the consumer. So I really don't know what we're facing from the OEMs yet. And until we do, we can't react to it.

是的。但總的來說，如果你看一下平均交易情況，我們為承包商創造的價值通常約為 30% 到 40%。所以，如果安裝費用是 12,000 美元，那麼我們銷售的產品價值大概在 3,000 到 4,000 美元之間。所以，那時價格上漲的幅度，比如說，會上升，我們隨便選一個數字。即使漲價 100 美元，也不會對消費者造成重大的交易中斷。所以，我真的還不清楚我們會面臨來自原始設備製造商（OEM）的什麼要求。在我們採取行動之前，我們無法對此做出反應。

Mitch Moore, KeyBanc Capital Markets.

米奇·摩爾，KeyBanc Capital Markets。

I know most of the industry is already in those entry-level baseline SEER products. But just wondering if you could talk about mix in the quarter. Just maybe if you could flesh out if you're seeing consumers trade down to lower tier products?

我知道業內大部分企業已經在使用入門級的基本型 SEER 產品了。不過，我想問您能否談談本季的投資組合情況。或許您能詳細說明一下，您是否觀察到消費者正在轉向購買低階產品？

Yes, that's been occurring all year long. Any time you have a change in product. Everything always has migrated to the base model. The base model today is 15.3 SEER in the South. That's a very efficient thesis of equipment that I wouldn't call base anymore.

是的，這種情況一整年都在發生。產品發生任何變化的時候。所有內容最終都會遷移到基礎模型。目前南部地區的基本模型能源效率比為 15.3 SEER。這是一種非常有效率的裝備概念，我不會再稱之為基地裝備了。

I'd call it almost high efficiency. So it's been pretty steady. The data we have only covers two quarters on the industry. So first and second quarter, we're fairly flat as far as the SEER ratings. It's always higher on heat pumps than it is on straight cool.

我覺得它的效率幾乎是很高的。所以一直都很穩定。我們掌握的數據僅涵蓋該產業兩季的情況。所以第一季和第二季度，SEER 評級基本上持平。熱泵的能耗總是比單純冷凍的能耗高。

The exception and an exciting thing going on in our business is that we can help our customers sell up particularly through OnCall Air. I think we're approaching -- not I think. We are approaching close to $2 billion of our customer sales going through that tool and the most amazing statistic is that over 70% of the sales that occur are more -- or higher than the minimum efficiency standard. So where the rest of the industry is selling 80%, 85% minimum standard on OnCall Air, it's over 70% above the minimum standard. And more of that we can do, the better for everybody in the channel.

我們業務中一個例外，也是令人興奮的事情是，我們可以幫助客戶提升銷售額，特別是透過 OnCall Air。我認為我們正在接近——不是我認為。我們透過該工具實現的客戶銷售額已接近 20 億美元，最令人驚訝的是，超過 70% 的銷售額都超過了最低效率標準。因此，當業內其他公司銷售的 OnCall Air 最低標準為 80%、85% 時，OnCall Air 的最低標準比 80%、85% 高出 70% 以上。我們越能做到這一點，對頻道裡的每個人就越有利。

.

。

Well, so, can you explain OnCall Air? There may be some new people on this call.

那麼，你能解釋一下 OnCall Air 嗎？這次通話中可能會有一些新面孔。

Sure. OnCall Air is a technology initiative. It's actually a business we created in our Watsco venture subsidiary and has created APS software that's really a sales engine for our contractors or our customers. So a customer like AJ heating and cooling OnCall Air customer and use our software to sell in the kitchen house. And it's loaded up with all of our data about all the products we sell, our customers' pricing, our inventory everything you could ever want in terms of creating a world-class professional sophisticated proposal or proposals for homeowners as a contractor or building owners of contractors attempt to sell their wares.

當然。OnCall Air 是一項技術計劃。實際上，這是我們在 Watsco 創投子公司創建的一項業務，它開發了 APS 軟體，該軟體實際上是我們承包商或客戶的銷售引擎。因此，像 AJ Heating and Cooling OnCall Air 這樣的客戶會使用我們的軟體在廚房住宅中進行銷售。它包含了我們所有產品的數據、客戶定價、庫存等所有信息，以及作為承包商或建築業主向房主推銷產品時，創建世界一流專業複雜提案所需的一切信息。

Our customers that use it are winning more jobs, they're higher-ticket jobs, they're higher-margin jobs. And like I just said, they're more often than not selling higher efficiency systems than the base tier as well. So it's growing, it's growing fast, and it's just a win-win-win for everybody in the channel.

使用我們服務的客戶贏得了更多項目，這些項目金額更高，利潤更高。而且就像我剛才說的，他們通常也會銷售比基本款更有效率的系統。所以它正在發展，而且發展迅速，這對頻道裡的每個人來說都是三贏的局面。

Great. That's super helpful. And then obviously, record gross margins here in the third quarter. Just wondering if you could unpack the moving pieces within that. Maybe just how much was mix benefits from the other HVAC products versus some carryover OEM pricing?

偉大的。這太有幫助了。很顯然，第三季的毛利率也創下了歷史新高。我只是想知道您是否可以把裡面的活動部件拆開。或許，其他暖通空調產品帶來的混合效益佔比，與沿用原廠定價相比，究竟佔比有多大？

This is Rick. I can -- yes, this is Rick. I can help you with that answer a little bit. There's two or three contributors there that help and that feel good and sustainable. The first is we had growth in non-equipment, and as a category as a basket, that non-equipment business has higher gross margins.

這是里克。我可以——是的，我是里克。我可以稍微幫你解答這個問題。那裡有兩三個捐助者，他們提供幫助，讓人感覺良好且可持續。首先，非設備業務實現了成長，而且作為一個類別，非設備業務的毛利率更高。

So that is a mix benefit in our gross margin. There was some carryover benefit from springtime OEM pricing actions.

所以這是我們毛利率的一個綜合優勢。春季廠商定價策略帶來了一些延續性效益。

And then the third most structural most interesting aspect of it is that, we've talked about the pricing optimization tools that are maturing and getting better every day in the field. AI is making that even better today and transactional margins were very resilient in a down market and actually slightly up. So we take some comfort in that and feeling and being somewhat -- or to us feel somewhat permanent and structural whatever word you want to use. And those are the large contributors to the margin expansion.

第三個最有趣的結構性方面是，我們已經討論過定價優化工具，這些工具在實際應用中日益成熟和完善。如今，人工智慧讓這一切變得更好了，即使在市場低迷時期，交易利潤率也表現出很強的韌性，實際上還略有上升。所以我們從中得到了一些安慰，感覺自己在某種程度上——或者對我們來說，感覺在某種程度上是永久的、結構性的，不管你想用什麼詞。這些是利潤率擴張的主要貢獻因素。

And then just by the way --

順便提一下--

Let me just say this. We don't want to provide information to our competitors that can use for. So be careful with how much detail we answer these things. Go ahead, A.J.

我只想說一句。我們不想向競爭對手提供他們可以利用的資訊。所以，我們在回答這些問題時要謹慎控制細節的詳略程度。請繼續，A.J.

I was just going to say, the way you said that, Rick, and what you said earlier about controlling what we can control, it's important to reiterate that we're a long-term company. I mean I know this is the third quarter call. But our job is to invest and to steer the business for the long-term health and continuous improvement of this business. You heard us talk about that in our inventory, right? We talked a little bit about what it means in this quarter and next quarter, but really, we're talking about how do we get to 5 turns.

我正想說，瑞克，你剛才那樣說，還有你之前說的要控制我們能控制的事情，重要的是要重申，我們是一家著眼長遠的公司。我知道這是第三季財報電話會議。但我們的職責是投資並引導業務發展，以實現業務的長期健康發展和持續改進。你們在庫存盤點時都聽到我們提到過這一點，對吧？我們稍微討論了一下這在本季度和下個季度意味著什麼，但實際上，我們正​​在討論的是如何達到 5 次轉彎。

What does that mean for our business in the medium and long term.

這對我們的中長期業務意味著什麼？

There's pricing, there's noise, there's there's OEM changes and so forth, but what are we doing to improve our paradigm as a selling organization to structurally increase our margins over the long term. It's true of our technology initiatives, helping our customers digitize their businesses so they can be more efficient as well as we can be more efficient and we can all move the efficient frontier out into the right. So I understand these questions are very much focused on this quarter and next quarter, but our business is focused on the long term as well as the short term.

有定價問題，有噪音問題，有 OEM 變化等等，但是作為銷售組織，我們正在採取什麼措施來改進我們的模式，從而從長遠角度結構性地提高我們的利潤率？我們的技術措施也是如此，幫助客戶實現業務數位化，從而提高他們的效率，同時也提高我們的效率，最終將效率的前沿向右推進。我知道這些問題主要集中在本季和下個季度，但我們的業務既專注於短期，也專注於長期。

Steve Tusa, JPMorgan.

史蒂夫圖薩，摩根大通。

As I say, Miami commerce staff.

正如我所說，邁阿密商務部工作人員。

(inaudible) I don't know. I was in Italy the summer. So just --

（聽不清楚）我不知道。我夏天去了義大利。所以就--

I could tell. I could tell.

我看得出來。我看得出來。

Yes. Never real language guy, unfortunately.

是的。可惜，我始終不是個精通語言的人。

You did.

你做到了。

But I do talk HVAC. I talk the HVAC language. So I'm just curious, when you survey your contractors, what are they saying about like what their volumes are down? Or are they -- I mean I would assume they're down if this is what kind of like what you guys are seeing, but like what is the actual like I don't know what you call it, like activity for the contractors like at the ground level?

但我確實會談暖通空調。我懂暖通空調方面的術語。所以我很好奇，當你調查你的承包商時，他們是如何描述他們的業務量下降的？或者他們——我的意思是，如果你們看到的是這種情況，我估計他們已經停工了，但是，承包商在地面上的實際活動情況如何？我不知道該怎麼稱呼它？

I'm not sure I understand your question.

我不太明白你的問題。

Well, are your contractor customer sales down? Or are they -- like, is it -- because Lennox mentioned something about contractors having inventory think carrier kind of reinforced that yesterday. So there's this kind of narrative that there were some inventory sitting at contractors? Or should we assume that your sales are kind of in line with what they're seeing on the ground level?

你們的承包商客戶銷售下降了嗎？或者他們是——比如，是不是——因為倫諾克斯提到了承包商有庫存的事情，而承運商昨天似乎也印證了這一點。所以有一種說法是，一些庫存商品存放在承包商那裡？或者我們應該假設你們的銷售情況與他們實際觀察到的情況基本一致？

I think some contractors may have inventory, but that's going to be a very large contractor. It's got a warehouse. We sell to almost 100,000 different contractors across the country. So it's -- if you're talking to large contractors, yes, they could have inventory, but I don't think it's ever going to be a meaningful amount of inventory.

我認為有些承包商可能有庫存，但這肯定得是規模非常大的承包商才行。它有一個倉庫。我們的產品銷往全國各地近 10 萬家不同的承包商。所以——如果你和大型承包商交談，是的，他們可能有庫存，但我認為庫存量永遠不會很大。

I mean, I've talked to contractors in the Northeast that are of size and they're doing great. I've talked to small ones in Texas that are closing up shop. I mean it is all over the map, which as you imagine, since like Paul said, we're at such scale with 100,000 customers across the company. It's not -- there's not one story. There's thousands.

我的意思是，我跟東北地區一些較大的承包商聊過，他們做得都很好。我跟德州一些即將關門的小店聊過。我的意思是，情況非常複雜，正如你所想，因為正如保羅所說，我們公司規模龐大，擁有 10 萬名客戶。並非如此——這並非一個單一的故事。有成千上萬個。

And as far as --

至於--

The industry overall is down.

整個產業都在下滑。

As far as this institutional channel, which is, I think, the large contractors, how big is that now as a percentage of the market, if like housing and homebuilders are like 20%-ish, like is that institutional channel? How big is that now the consolidators on the contractor side?

至於這個機構通路，我認為指的是大型承包商，它現在佔市場份額的百分比有多大？如果房屋和房屋建築商佔 20% 左右，那麼這個機構管道就屬於什麼範圍呢？現在承包商方面的整合商規模有多大？

It would be guess on our part. Yes.

這只是我們的猜測。是的。

Barry, what do you have there? I think you estimated that for me --

巴里，你那裡有什麼？我想你已經幫我估算過了。--

There's two separate conversations, Steve. There's the contractors that do work for the builder community and that is not necessarily a consolidator or some kind of what we're targeting as institutional. And if housing is 10%, 15% of the market, I believe those contractors are 10%, 15% of the market.

史蒂夫，這是兩段獨立的對話。還有一些承包商為建築商群體提供服務，但這並不一定意味著他們是整合者，或者說，他們並不是我們所針對的那種機構。如果住房佔市場份額的 10% 到 15%，那麼我認為這些承包商也佔市場份額的 10% 到 15%。

But the focus of what we're talking about is mega contractors that are primarily replacement driven that have a multitude of locations throughout the US and their fragmentation of who they buy from is extreme. So we're trying to develop the thought of how to bring productivity and scale to that relationship. And I certainly think that segment is under 10% of the market, but it is growing, and this isn't just cooked up in a lab. This is customers coming to us and asking if we can help them with this.

但我們討論的重點是那些主要以更換設備為導向的大型承包商，他們在全美各地擁有眾多分支機構，而且他們的採購來源非常分散。因此，我們正在努力思考如何提高這種關係的效率和規模。我當然認為這個細分市場佔比不到 10%，但它正在成長，而且這並非憑空捏造出來的。這是客戶主動聯絡我們，詢問我們是否能幫他們解決這個問題。

I think you said that right, Barry. It's under 10%, but it's an important growing segment. They are buying -- their buying is fragmented, including amongst the Watsco companies fragmented. So what we're developing is a single solution for them to buy all their needs from all of our businesses that's under development now and we'll come to market early next year. But the conversations we have with those institutional-type contractors, and the consolidators of what the prospect of this thing is it's very exciting to them and therefore, very exciting to us.

我覺得你說得對，巴瑞。雖然佔比不到 10%，但這卻是重要的成長領域。他們正在收購——他們的收購是分散的，包括在Watsco公司內部的收購也是分散的。所以，我們正在開發一個單一的解決方案，讓他們能夠從我們所有業務部門購買他們所需的一切。該方案目前正在開發中，我們將於明年初推向市場。但是，我們與那些機構型承包商和整合商進行的對話，讓他們對這件事的前景感到非常興奮，因此，這對我們來說也非常興奮。

Got it. And then just one last one for you on pricing. Anything on the in the environment that you're seeing, where maybe there's an OEM that's trying to get rid of inventory or something, any kind of like late season rebate activity that -- or discounting activity you're seeing on a like-for-like basis price-wise?

知道了。最後，關於價格方面，我還有一個問題。在您觀察到的環境中，是否有任何類似OEM廠商試圖清理庫存之類的現象，或者是否有任何季末折扣活動，或者您是否看到過類似價格的折扣活動？

Whatever we're seeing is not material.

我們所看到的並非物質。

Nigel Coe, Wolfe Research.

Nigel Coe，Wolfe Research。

Please don't check my language skills. I don't as is very good. By the way, I think this is the first time you guys have done a formal investor event. So this is one we can't miss. So look forward to that guys.

請不要考我的語言能力。我不這麼認為，因為這非常好。順便說一句，我想這應該是你們第一次舉辦正式的投資人活動吧。所以這是我們絕對不能錯過的。所以大家敬請期待吧。

Where are you coming from, Nigel?

奈傑爾，你從哪裡來？

New York. Yes. So don't be about accents. It's a --

紐約。是的。所以不要太在意口音。這是一個--

You had -- you did have -- I'm going to -- I was going to guess Ireland.

你曾經——你確實——我要——我本來想猜愛爾蘭。

Ireland. Well, yes, I'm actually Wash, but close enough. So I want to go back -- I really love to get your perspective on the customer behavior and why it changed so dramatically. And it seems to be a coincidence, so maybe not coincidence that it's happening at the time that we've seen this A2L transition. And I'm just wondering if the kind of the cost of a full replacement system versus a partial is a factor that contractors are highlighted to you.

愛爾蘭。嗯，其實我叫Wash，不過也差不多了。所以我想再去了解一下——我真的很想聽聽您對客戶行為的看法，以及為什麼客戶行為發生瞭如此巨大的變化。這似乎是一個巧合，但也許並非巧合，它恰好發生在我們看到 A2L 過渡的這段時間。我只是想知道，整套系統更換與部分更換的成本差異，是否是承包商會向您重點提及的因素。

And within that question, I'm just wondering if you're seeing the same sort of trends for the R-32 products, Ductless or Goodman. Are those kind of sell-through dynamics better than what we're seeing for R-454B?

在這個問題中，我只是想知道您是否也觀察到 R-32 產品（無論是無管道空調還是 Goodman 空調）存在相同的趨勢。這種銷售動態是否比 R-454B 的情況更好？

Yes, this is Paul. Yes, you are seeing a difference as far as performance. The A2L product, you've got to replace the coil inside as well as the outdoor unit. You can't just replace the outdoor unit because you have to have the sniffing device to be able to tell if there's a leak and then you have to have the switch to turn on the blower fan. So that brought the price up, but it also increases the cost of the consumer to replace an entire system.

是的，這是保羅。是的，性能方面確實有所提升。對於 A2L 產品，您需要更換內部線圈以及室外機。你不能只更換室外機，因為你需要一個嗅探裝置來判斷是否有洩漏，然後你還需要一個開關來打開鼓風機。因此，這推高了價格，但也增加了消費者更換整個系統的成本。

When you look at Ductless products, Ductless products continue to grow. There's some new products out there that are side discharge. And they have a tendency to get into the higher efficiency levels with the coil inside and they're ducted. So yes, we've seen some changes in the duct free market, which have enhanced our sales area.

從無管道產品的角度來看，無管道產品仍在持續成長。市面上有一些採用側向排氣的新產品。而且，由於內部裝有盤管並採用管道連接，它們的效率往往更高。是的，我們看到無管道市場發生了一些變化，這擴大了我們的銷售範圍。

But, Nigel, I guess, the price of the A2L machines or equipment or solutions are higher, but I don't believe that's the full reason that there's a slowdown in the industry, I think that's much more about the all record or, I believe, close to record lows and consumer confidence, record lows in the trading of homes and building of new homes, the tariffs creating I would say, uncertainty for many homeowners of what their cost of living is going to be.

但是，奈傑爾，我想，A2L 的機器、設備或解決方案的價格確實更高，但我不認為這是行業放緩的全部原因。我認為，這更多的是因為消費者信心跌至歷史新低，或者接近歷史新低，房屋交易和新房建設也跌至歷史新低，關稅給許多房主帶來了不確定性，讓他們不知道自己的生活成本會是多少。

So I just think there's less activity in terms of people investing in their homes, HVAC included, especially coming off a period where they invested a lot in their homes, when they were living in holiday long they're in COVID times. So while yes, it's true that there is more price than machines. I just don't believe it's that clear of elasticity conversation, I think, much more macro influences or having an impact.

所以我覺得人們在房屋投資方面（包括暖通空調系統）的活動減少了，尤其是在經歷了假期期間大量投資房屋之後，現在又進入了新冠疫情時期。所以，沒錯，價格因素確實比機器本身更重要。我不認為這是關於彈性問題的清晰討論，我認為，更多的是宏觀因素或影響。

Okay. Okay. That's great color.

好的。好的。顏色真好看。

I just want to add something for everyone's sake in this because I think part of this discussion is where is the contractor in this and how are their businesses doing? Someone asked, is there a correlation between what a contractor would feel and what we're feeling and so on. And I said this many quarters through my career, no one ever asks about credit. We give contractors $800 million in accounts receivable, and we know the credit quality every second of the day.

為了大家的利益，我想補充一點，因為我認為這場討論的一部分是承包商在這件事中扮演什麼角色，以及他們的業務狀況如何？有人問，承包商的感受和我們的感受之間是否有某種關聯等等。我職業生涯中很多季度都說過，從來沒有人問過我的信用狀況。我們提供承包商 8 億美元的應收帳款，而且我們每時每刻都知道他們的信用狀況。

In the recession, for example, we had 10% of that portfolio over 90 days past due. Today, it's 1.2%. Last year, at this time, it was 1.2%. Credit quality has not changed at all. It's not -- that 1.2% is as low as any year in the last 10 years. So if I look at the pure credit quality of our customer as maybe a leading indicator of some kind, the quality is very high.

例如，在經濟衰退期間，我們有 10% 的投資組合逾期超過 90 天。今天，這個數字是1.2%。去年同期，這一數字為 1.2%。信用品質絲毫沒有變化。並非如此——1.2%是近10年來最低的年份。所以，如果我把客戶的純信用品質當作某種領先指標來看，那麼信用品質非常高。

Okay. That's great color. And then my follow-up, and I know we're running out of time here. But my follow-up is everyone tracks the hard data intra-quarter. And it just seems very disconnected from -- well, it doesn't seem it is very disconnected from what we're seeing from you and obviously, your OEM partners. Any perspective on that would be helpful.

好的。顏色真好看。接下來我要補充一點，我知道我們時間不多了。但我的後續問題是，每個人都會追蹤季度內的具體數據。這似乎與——嗯，這似乎與我們從你和你的OEM合作夥伴那裡看到的情況並沒有太大的脫節。任何見解都將不勝感激。

Yes. I think there's a great deal of difference there. One, if you take a look at the OEMs themselves who don't report to Hardy, you've got, what, 50% of train sales goes through their company-owned stores, 70% of Lennox, 70% of Goodman. Carrier pushes, what, over 40%, 45% of their sales through Watsco, we don't report to that. So it's a different reporting group.

是的。我認為這裡存在著很大的差異。第一，如果你看看那些不向哈迪報告的原始設備製造商，你會發現，50% 的火車銷售額是透過他們公司自營商店實現的，倫諾克斯是 70%，古德曼是 70%。Carrier 透過 Watsco 銷售了超過 40% 到 45% 的產品，但我們並沒有對此進行報告。所以這是另一個報道小組。

I think it's going to be a little bit more commercial refrigeration. I think it's going to be a little bit more on the repair side, perhaps. And it tends to be generally more of a northern-based report than the south.

我認為它會更偏向商業冷凍領域。我覺得可能更多的是維修方面的問題。而且，這份報告通常更多來自北方，而不是南方。

So geographically, I don't know how it's -- and I don't know if they have a consistency every month or quarter as far as who is reporting to it. So on the index that weekly can use is the HRI data.

所以從地理位置來看，我不知道情況如何——我也不知道他們每個月或每季向其報告的人員是否保持一致。因此，每周可以使用的指數是 HRI 數據。

Paul, why don't you comment also, which we generally do not comment but the weather this season.

保羅，你為什麼不也發表一下看法呢？我們通常不評論這個季節的天氣。

Yes, the other question -- it was -- it was hot in Florida like it always is. It was hot in Texas, like it generally is. But we had the recooling days that were not really on target for the entire year, especially the peak part of the year, which is May and June when people are thinking about putting in a new air conditioner. But if the weather doesn't get hot, they don't. So it's been just an odd year.

是的，另一個問題——確實——佛羅裡達州一如既往地炎熱。德克薩斯州很熱，一如既往。但是，我們全年的冷凍恢復日並沒有真正達到預期目標，尤其是在一年中的高峰期，也就是五月和六月，那時人們都在考慮安裝新的空調。但如果天氣不熱，它們就不會。所以，今年真是個奇怪的年份。

I just wish I could put both arms around it and explain it better, but it's a very difficult situation to explain.

我真希望我能用雙臂環抱住它，更好地解釋清楚，但這確實是一個很難解釋的情況。

Barry said on last quarter's call. We look forward to getting back to some harmony hopefully, in 2026.

巴里在上個季度的電話會議上說。我們期待在2026年能夠恢復某種和諧局面。

And the word was Serenity, by the way.

順便一提，那個字是「寧靜」。

Serenity, yes. They got better.

是的，寧靜。他們的情況好轉了。

But in the meantime, we're getting stronger. Our balance sheet is getting stronger, technology capabilities are getting better. We're not feeling sorry for ourselves that the industry has slowed down. We're doing something about it. We're getting stronger.

但同時，我們正在變得更強大。我們的資產負債表越來越穩健，技術能力也越來越強。我們並不為產業發展放緩而感到惋惜。我們正在採取措施解決這個問題。我們變得更強大了。

Steve Tusa, JPMorgan.

史蒂夫圖薩，摩根大通。

We're very proud.

我們感到非常自豪。

I believe the term is Serenity now and Serenity later. I believe that they say -- sorry, on that point about this year being an unusual year. So as you kind of stand today, I know the crystal ball is pretty clouded, but like do you view this as kind of like abnormally low? And then next year, you bounce from a sell-through perspective? Or there's not enough visibility to kind of call that as you move into next year?

我認為應該說的是當下的寧靜和未來的寧靜。我相信他們會說——抱歉，關於今年是不同尋常的一年這一點。所以，就你目前所處的位置而言，我知道現在預測還很困難，但你認為這個數字是否異常低呢？那麼明年，從銷售角度來看，你會反彈嗎？或者說，隨著明年的到來，目前還沒有足夠的資訊來預測這種情況？

Do we think this year has been unusual, Yes. Demand is unusual. Do we think we'll get normal next year? I would like to think so, but who might have predicted what the weather is going to do with the other circumstances that create demand. So that's an unknown.

我們認為今年很不尋常嗎？是的。需求異常。我們認為明年情況會恢復正常嗎？我希望如此，但誰能預料到天氣會如何影響其他造成需求的因素呢？所以，這還是個未知數。

But are we stronger now? And will we be stronger next year? Yes. All I can do is control what we do. We're going to get stronger and better no matter what's going on with demand, because that's who we are.

但我們現在更強大了嗎？我們明年會更強大嗎？是的。我只能控制我們的行為。無論市場需求如何變化，我們都會變得更強大、更好，因為這就是我們。

We're going to get -- we're going to build up our capabilities to do much more things that our competitors can do, innovating in technology and building our cash position to perhaps do more M&A. I'd like to do more M&A. So whenever it comes, comes, we'll be ready for you.

我們將提升自身能力，去做更多競爭對手無法做到的事情，在技術上進行創新，並累積現金儲備，以便進行更多併購。我想做更多併購活動。所以無論何時到來，我們都會準備好迎接你。

Yes, control the control.

是的，控制控制。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Albert Nahmad for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我謹將會議交還給阿爾伯特·納赫邁德，請他作總結發言。

Well, let's just fine today. I enjoyed it. We have a great team here in Watsco in Miami, and I certainly hope as many of you can come to Miami in December, please do. We'll welcome you with open arms. And any of it, thanks to your interest in Watsco.

今天一切都好。我很喜歡。我們在邁阿密的Watsco公司擁有一支優秀的團隊，我真心希望你們中的許多人能在12月來邁阿密，請務必來。我們將張開雙臂歡迎你。這一切都要感謝您對Watsco的關注。

Bye-bye now.

再見。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議已經結束。感謝各位參加今天的報告會。您現在可以斷開連線了。