Watsco Inc (WSO) 2018 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Watsco, Inc. First Quarter 2018 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded.

I would now like to turn the conference over to Albert Nahmad, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. Please go ahead, sir.

This is Al Nahmad, Chairman and CEO. With me today is A.J. Nahmad, President; Paul Johnston, Executive Vice President; and Barry Logan, Senior Vice President.

As we normally do, before we start, the usual cautionary statement. This conference call has forward-looking statements defined by SEC laws and regulations that are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of these various laws. Ultimate results may differ materially from the forward-looking statements.

Now on to the performance. I'm pleased to report that Watsco delivered another record quarter. It's a good start to what we believe will be another record year.

Sales, operating income, net income and earnings per share reached record levels. Our performance includes continued investment in Watsco industry-leading technology platforms, as well as 140 additional customer-facing employees to expand sales and customer service capabilities.

Once again, we raised our annual dividend to $5.80 per share effective this quarter. 2018 marks the 44th consecutive year we have paid dividends.

Interesting to note that we often mention our 19.3% 25-year compounded annual growth rate for total shareholder return, which is among the highest for all public companies. It should also be noted that our 25-year compounded annual growth rate for just dividends is also 19%, which we consider to be highly attractive as well.

Future increase in dividends will be considered in light of investment opportunities, cash flow and financial conditions and business conditions.

Now our balance sheet remains conservative with a debt-to-cap ratio of 6%, and we are positioned to take advantage of most any sized investment opportunity that may come along.

Now the detailed first quarter results. Revenues grew 6%, driven by an 8% increase in HVAC equipment sales. Operating income increased 11%. Operating margins expanded 20 basis points to 5.8%. EPS increased 25% to a record $0.89 on net income of $34 million, which includes lower taxes or a lower tax rate. Year-over-year, we have reduced debt by $191 million.

Now regarding our technology. The theme of our customer-obsessed technology strategy is simple: when our customers win, we win. So our focus is to help customers be more efficient and more profitable and make it so good to do business with Watsco that only they -- that with Watsco -- that they only want to do business with Watsco. That was a mouthful, but I think you get the idea.

Time is money for our customers, so our mobile apps deliver mobile-enabled information and solutions on any device anywhere. The run rate for e-commerce sales stands now at close to 30%, and we're very focused on increasing that.

Customers do not have business hours, so our apps and e-commerce platforms provide information and order processing at any time, day or night. For example, over 25% of our e-commerce orders are outside conventional business hours, an indication of their value throughout the entire day.

Customer require products in minutes, not hours and certainly not in days. We have built and are deploying technology that improves order fill rates with speed and accuracy.

More locations have adopted our proprietary software, and we expect our entire network will be live by the end of the year. Customers also require technical assistance throughout the day. We have developed the industry's largest amount of digitized product information and have mastered over 650,000 SKUs from well over 1,000 suppliers. Now that's taken us several years to do, and we'll continue to add to that 650,000.

Our technology is a long-term mission. It will take time to scale across the 563 locations that we operate, the 250,000 contractors and technicians that we serve and 7 million transactions that we process and fill each year.

On May 18, Baird and Watsco are hosting a technology summit for its institution investors to update our progress and provide more insight into our long-term thinking. It will be a fun and informative day.

Now A.J., Paul and Barry and I are happy to answer your questions.

(Operator Instructions) The first question comes from Ryan Merkel of William Blair.

Congrats on the strong top line.

Thank you.

So I want to start with gross margins being down a little bit year-over-year. I think a few of us were expecting something a little bit higher just given the strong price backdrop. What were the puts and takes this quarter?

Barry?

Well, first, again, we had nice growth rate in our equipment business, which just algebraically has a lower margin than the nonequipment business. So there's some algebra there in the numbers. And also, there certainly was price this quarter. It is reflected in the equipment growth rate. And overall, though, the real baseline of your question is the mix between the equipment and nonequipment side of the business.

And then just the follow-up was price cost a positive? I think possibly, you could have bought ahead of some of the price increases and had a little boost there.

Yes. Price cost was positive for the quarter.

Okay. All right. And then, my second question, I'm just hearing that some of the OEMs have announced a midyear price increase. And I'm wondering what you're seeing from some of your important OEMs. And then could you speak to the amount of the increase and possibly the timing?

Paul?

Yes. We have been seeing price increase announcements coming from most of the major OEMs. They're -- they range -- it's pretty much up to 6%, 7%, 8%, but obviously, they're not going to realize that full amount. They're much smaller on the -- when you get into the real nitty-gritty of what we actually sell.

Okay. And just maybe lastly, just historically, have mid-season price increases generally been pretty well? Is that the history there?

I think this is going to be a trial balloon. I've been in the industry many, many years, and it's unusual for us to have a mid-season price increase. I can't remember the last one, so I have no basis to say whether it will hold or not. I hope it does.

The next question comes from Rob Barry of Susquehanna.

This is Mike Yang on for Rob. So I was just wondering, can you comment on how growth is tracking so far in 2Q?

No. We're not going to do that because first quarter is unusually, as it is every year, not a telltale about what's going to happen in the rest of the year. So we're not going to do that.

Sure. No problem. And just to follow up, to what extent did hurricane rebuild activity help the quarter?

Well, it's not a big impact because our distribution is so large that any single area that requires a lot of attention during hurricane or other -- or other nature's disasters doesn't really affect the overall. It helps a little bit locally, but it doesn't -- it's not big enough to impact the overall business.

The next question comes from Matt Duncan of Stephens Inc.

So obviously, very, very nice HVAC equipment sales growth in the quarter. I think that does in part, anyway, explain what's going on with gross margin. On the equipment growth rate, can you tell us how much was price, how much was volume? And then kind of as a follow-up to that last question, was there any noticeable difference in growth rates geographically that you maybe see things grow faster in Florida as you might be getting some benefit, which I would think is going to last a while, if you are coming from a hurricane [recovery]?

Well, generally, we don't like to give territorial information because we don't want to invite our competitors, but let's see if we can answer your first question. Barry?

Matt, no, it's again pretty healthy unit growth and price and mix. All 3 were positive; and to get to the 8% growth rate for equipment domestically, a slightly higher growth rate than that. So in each case, there was a healthy amount of all 3 in this case. Again, we need to remind ourselves it is the first quarter and impeding something like that conversation for the rest of the year is -- we need to be conservative about that, but it's a good start to the year for sure.

Yes. And along that vein, I mean, so to follow up on the question about the second quarter, the weather in April has been cooler in a lot of places in the country. And so I assume it's possible that, that is having a little bit of an effect. I just want to make sure that we get ourselves level set correctly for what type of revenue growth rate you believe is reasonable in the business. Obviously, this was a very good quarter from that perspective. But to be clear, it sounds like I'm hearing we shouldn't extrapolate that forward to be safe.

Well, those are your own conclusions. You shouldn't do either one. You should just understand that we don't want to project anything because we're coming off one of the -- traditionally, the seasonal quarter. The first quarter doesn't indicate what's going to happen during the rest of the year. We're not asking you to conclude anything.

Sure. And then last thing, just on SG&A cost. You guys had talked about adding heads this year. We saw that in the first quarter. Can you update us on sort of how far along you are in the headcount additions and what's planned going forward?

Barry?

Sure, Matt. Well, first, over the last 12 months, we had talked about 140 people being added. I think that number is beginning to mature in terms of year-over-year comparison. So I wouldn't expect there to be incremental impacts from this point forward, at least not anything material. This is all built on certain of our business units and their leadership, adding people to better serve markets, customers, also some opportunistic chances to actually get some competitive employment going in certain markets that they felt was important. And our job is to support them and then to watch what develops. So that's been a span of about a year now. Two of our business units, in particular, that are making those investments. And as the season plays out, we look for the growth that was the purpose of those investments.

Our next question comes from David Manthey of Baird.

Back to the manufacturer price increases, we've seen a lot of those come through but haven't seen anything out of Carrier. Maybe I just missed that or UTX. But have you had any discussions with them? Do you expect the Carrier brand to follow the mid-single-digit price increases that everyone else has put through?

Well, I think they have announced a price increase, and I'll let Paul answer that.

Yes. They've announced a price increase on both Carrier, Bryant and ICP, and it's going to be mid-single digit.

It is, certainly. It's not going to be -- it is, yes.

Great. Okay. And then, Barry, when you talked about the price/mix, I'm not sure that you gave us a number. Could you give us a number? Is it 1%, 2% quantitatively?

David, I very purposely didn't give you a number, just so you know. Well, I'm point blank about it. Now again, we don't want to get into too much competitive information and just know that there's a nice dose of each in the growth rate for the quarter. I want to say this, too, just to reflect on what I said, probably every April for the last 20 years that we've had this call, we've said that the weather is not something to sit here and make predictions on. We are -- but in our case, we are deep in the Sunbelt, weather shows up, it's going to be a hot summer in our big markets. And to get into a short-term kind of ping-pong match on what's the weather like in April just really has never been a very relevant conversation.

Well said.

Yes. I totally agree with that. Then second, we've heard that the Payne and Bryant brands have been showing up in more large quotes recently and winning them. Are you gaining more traction in the construction market do you feel today than maybe the past couple of years? And I understand that only represents 10% to 15% of your sales. But -- and secondarily, is that also part of the reason why the other HVAC products has been growing faster the past 2 quarters?

I don't know. We don't want to describe what particular brands that we're marketing, what they're doing or not doing. Again, it's competitive information. Paul, can you shed some color one way or the other?

Yes. Obviously, we've got, what, 16 brands that we sell at Watsco. We're multi-branded. We've got different strategies for each one as we change them. I really would not like to get into specifics as far as what our strategies are with 2 particular brands.

The next question comes from Jeff Hammond of KeyBanc Capital Markets.

This is actually Brad filling in for Jeff. Just on -- going back to nonequipment, nice growth in the quarter. Is that a reflection now of just kind of improved productivity with some of the headcount additions last year? Is that more fundamental strength? Or can you pinpoint that?

Who wants that one? Paul? Barry?

Yes, I'll take it. It's really a reflection of just the -- one, we've got to focus on parts and supply business among all of our people, which we've -- which we're yielding fruit from. Second thing, a lot of it, I think, ties into our technology, where we've got with our apps, with the bill of materials that are reflected on our apps. I think it's easier and more successful for the contractor to source his product from us than other competitors of ours. So I just think it's a lot of good things coming together for us.

And just on that tech, now that you've had this place -- these tools in place for a longer period of time, when you kind of look at the year-over-year trends, can you provide any update in terms of adoption or (inaudible) by what you're seeing in terms of adoption from the Russell JV?

From the Russell what? I'm sorry.

The Sigler JV.

The Sigler? No, we're not -- we don't have that information. We're only a minority owner there.

Okay. I just didn't know if you saw any -- if they're more open to the -- bringing the tech onboard or not.

Can't answer that.

The next question comes from Robert McCarthy of Stifel.

Do you prefer this call or the dentist, Al? So I don't know.

I think I prefer the call. Yes. It's great news. The company is once again reaching record levels. I mean...

Well, but I mean, wouldn't -- I mean, obviously, a cynic would say if April was good results, you'd probably disclose them, right?

No. I don't know. We don't think that way. You can say all you want, but we mean what we say. We're not trying to distract anybody. We don't believe, we've done it in the past, that we should comment on second quarter because we've learned in the past that second quarter does not necessarily reflect first quarter. It's a much bigger quarter, and we don't want to mislead people. So give us credit for being conscious that we don't want to mislead people. Maybe you feel this indeed, but we're just being frank.

No. Well, listen, I'm stepping up to the call unlike Mr. Hammond who decided to send his second in this time so he can get his head cut off. In any event...

Well, sometimes you guys deserve to be told that you're not listening carefully, and that was what I did with Hammond.

I see. Well, don't worry, I think Mr. Tusa is on cleanup. So in any event...

What does all that mean?

Well, I think he's the next one in the queue.

I don't know.

Okay. All right. One more question if you'll indulge me. What do you expect in terms of kind of the key messages to come out of your kind of branded Baird event next May in terms of the tech spend and what leverage we could get there not only from growth, but perhaps working capital improvement? Is there anything you can kind of preview in terms of the key messages?

A.J.?

We're going to showcase and highlight what we're up to and the impact it's having. We're going to have some customers there to give you first hand look at how it's impacting their businesses, which is the whole point. So you have to come join us.

(Operator Instructions) The next question comes from Chris Dankert of Longbow Research.

I guess, this one is more directed at A.J. here. I guess, you did highlight that e-commerce now about 30% of sales here. Also, the app is seeing some nice adoption. Is there anything else tied to that number besides the app at this point?

As far as e-commerce adoption?

Yes. Yes.

Yes. The e-commerce is not just on the app. It is on any device, so web domains included. And it is getting close to 30% and customers -- which means that customers are not only using it but enjoy using it and find value in it, and we're seeing that in the numbers as well. It helps our productivity. And the customers that are using the tool and using it effectively, they are very sticky with us. The attrition rate is lower and the growth rate is higher for customers that are using the technologies.

Got you. Are you able to remind us kind of what e-commerce as a percent looked like this time last year?

Much less. I think it's growing at...

[Yes. About 50% less].

Yes. 40%, 50% higher this year.

Oh, okay. Okay. And I guess, just any comment on M&A here? Obviously, we've said the market looks good, but we've got tax reform in the rearview now. Just any update on what's out there right now?

We can't tell you what's out there because these acquisitions, as you know, is -- you can't disclose until they're done or at least until you're pretty sure you're going to get it done. So we're not going to do that.

No. I meant more on a relative basis of number of targets, anything along those lines.

No. No. It's the same thing. We're always on the search. We do grow by acquisitions. I think we've done over 60 of them, and I think we're going to continue. The nice thing about our balance sheet is that we think we can do almost any size that comes along. That's the benefit of scaling. Now we've scaled so that we can do that. That's a positive.

The next question comes from Walter Liptak of Seaport Global.

This is Steve Friedberg on for Walt. I think you guys talked a little bit about the app, kind of its -- the percentage of individuals who are on it. But did I catch that right about the entire network's going to be online with all the stores by the end of '18?

Sure. That probably can be better explained. A.J., do you want to explain that?

Yes. That was in reference to propriety software that we're deploying in the warehouses for the pick, pack and ship process. The picking -- so our warehouse guys can pick more accurately, quicker and get contractors in and out of our branches or stores faster and get back on the job site faster. And that's in about 300-plus stores today and should be in all of them by the end of the year.

Yes. I mean, the concept there, just to develop that is that the idea of having a front-end great customer-obsessed order process, information source and so on is great. How we fulfill that, those orders, 7 million times a year becomes the next treatment in customer enhancement. So that second stage A.J. is talking about is not only just the order processing on the front end, but how do we deploy those orders once they're received. And that's the world-class process is to see that all the way through to the customer and when they drive away with our products.

Okay. Perfect. And then going back to the headcount addition question asked earlier. I think on the last call, you guys alluded to new branches and new territories. Is there any update or any color on that?

Barry?

Yes. I'm not sure what we alluded to, perhaps what we said is that we -- opening up new branches is typically something we've done within our current footprint within territories to bring density and simply greater local service. And we've done some of that this quarter. There's more of that planned this year. Outside of our territories tends to be where we focus our acquisition efforts and focused on companies that have built businesses that dominate markets outside of our territory. And that's always been our principal focus is not greenfielding everywhere, but focusing on some of the large targets and being patient about it.

The next question comes from Steve Tusa of JPMorgan.

I guess, Rob got ahead of me here, but just a question on price increase. You talked about, I think, or at least we've seen Carrier go through with this kind of midyear. Have you seen anything from Goodman yet? There's -- we haven't picked up anything on that front.

Yes. It's a good question. I don't think we have. Paul, have you?

No. We have not seen anything from Goodman yet.

Is that typical for them? Do they kind of wait and see and then strike where they can? Or what historically -- I know 10, 15 years ago, they were -- they had a very -- a cost approach, a value approach, which served them well. Is this kind of normal behavior for them? Or what do you think?

Well, Steve, you know that they've had a new owner now in recent years. They're owned by a very large Japanese company called Daikin. So there's no reference to the years back there because these are different people and they have different goals, and we happen to be one of their largest customers. But I don't think there's a pattern, Paul, but maybe you could answer that.

I don't think there's a pattern. Like I said earlier, Steve, it's just -- we're in unfamiliar grounds right now due to all the tariff talk and buzz as far as OEMs actually addressing and some of them coming to the plate on mid-season price increases. Generally, we would be all through with this in December. So I don't know if there's a lot of precedents anywhere on this particular price increase.

Any fulfillment issues from any of your suppliers whether it's because supply chain and tariffs or the new factory they're ramping up? Anything going on fulfillment-wise?

Paul?

Yes. I just knocked on wood. No. Right now, I think everybody is in good shape. I don't think the tariffs, at least from the conversation we've had with our various suppliers, the tariff doesn't appear to have an impact on our availability. The products will be available to us. It's not going to impede anybody in that regard. It's just the pricing that's going to be unique.

Okay. Got it. And then one last one. Carrier -- actually, UTX mentioned on their call that there was a -- there may have been a little bit of a prebuy on these price increases. Did you guys take advantage of the pricing today to kind of get ahead of what may come midyear yourselves? Did you take on a little bit more inventory than you would have in a normal year?

Paul, you want to answer that?

Yes. Yes. I think we generally -- we do prebuys in -- selectively, wherever we have an opportunity.

The answer is we did.

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Albert Nahmad for any closing remarks.

Thanks again for your interest in our company. We look forward to communicating results in the next quarter. Bye now.

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.