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Operator
Operator
Good morning, and welcome to the WesBanco Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to John Iannone, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
早上好,歡迎參加 WesBanco 2023 年第二季度收益電話會議。 (操作員說明)請注意,正在記錄此事件。現在我想將會議交給投資者關係高級副總裁約翰·伊安諾 (John Iannone)。請繼續。
John H. Iannone - SVP of Investor & Public Relations
John H. Iannone - SVP of Investor & Public Relations
Thank you. Good morning, and welcome to WesBanco, Inc.'s Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. Leading the call today are Todd Clossin, President and Chief Executive Officer; Jeff Jackson, Senior Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer; and Dan Weiss, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.
謝謝。早上好,歡迎參加 WesBanco, Inc. 的 2023 年第二季度收益電話會議。今天主持會議的是總裁兼首席執行官托德·克洛辛 (Todd Closin);傑夫·傑克遜,高級執行副總裁兼首席運營官;執行副總裁兼首席財務官 Dan Weiss。
Today's call, an archive of which will be available on our website for one year, contains forward-looking information. Cautionary statements about this information and reconciliations of non-GAAP measures are included in our earnings related materials issued yesterday afternoon. As well as our other SEC filings and investor materials. These materials are available on the Investor Relations section of our website, wesbanco.com. All statements speak only as of July 26, 2023, and WesBanco undertakes no obligation to update them.
今天的電話會議包含前瞻性信息,其檔案將在我們的網站上提供一年。有關此信息的警告性聲明以及非公認會計原則措施的調節包含在我們昨天下午發布的收益相關材料中。以及我們的其他 SEC 文件和投資者材料。這些材料可在我們網站 wesbanco.com 的投資者關係部分獲取。所有聲明僅截至 2023 年 7 月 26 日,WesBanco 不承擔更新這些聲明的義務。
I would now like to turn the call over to Todd. Todd?
我現在想把電話轉給托德。托德?
Todd F. Clossin - President, CEO & Vice Chairman
Todd F. Clossin - President, CEO & Vice Chairman
Thank you, John, and good morning, everyone. Today is a bittersweet moment for me, it marks my last quarterly earnings call. I'm grateful to have worked closely with so many of our hard-working and dedicated employees during the past 10 years to help us become an evolving regional financial services institution. I've also appreciated interacting with all of you as you have supported our transformation and growth. .
謝謝約翰,大家早上好。今天對我來說是一個苦樂參半的時刻,這是我最後一次季度財報電話會議。我很感激在過去十年中與我們眾多勤奮敬業的員工密切合作,幫助我們成為不斷發展的區域金融服務機構。我也很高興與你們所有人互動,因為你們支持我們的轉型和成長。 。
As I close my tenure as CEO, WesBanco is well positioned for ongoing success with strong market positions, diversified revenue generation capabilities and distinct long-term advantages. I'm confident these will be the foundation for further growth and expansion through our incoming CEO, Jeff Jackson's strategic vision and leadership. WesBanco is in very good hands with Jeff and the leadership team, and I know you'll enjoy working with him as much as I have over this past year. Jeff?
在我擔任首席執行官的任期即將結束之際,WesBanco 憑藉強大的市場地位、多元化的創收能力和獨特的長期優勢,已做好了持續成功的準備。我相信,通過我們即將上任的首席執行官傑夫傑克遜的戰略願景和領導力,這些將成為進一步增長和擴張的基礎。傑夫和領導團隊對 WesBanco 的管理非常好,我知道您會像我在過去一年中一樣喜歡與他合作。傑夫?
Jeffrey H. Jackson - Senior EVP & COO
Jeffrey H. Jackson - Senior EVP & COO
Thanks, Todd, and good morning. On behalf of WesBanco, I would like to thank you for your leadership, support and dedication. Your positive impact on this company cannot be emphasized enough, as you and the team have laid a strong foundation for our long-term success. As I assume the CEO role on August 1, I'll look forward to building on this impressive foundation to deliver continued growth and success for our customers, communities, shareholders and employees as well as working with you in your new role as Vice Chairman of our Board of Directors.
謝謝托德,早上好。我謹代表 WesBanco 感謝您的領導、支持和奉獻。您對公司的積極影響怎麼強調都不為過,因為您和團隊為我們的長期成功奠定了堅實的基礎。當我於 8 月 1 日就任首席執行官時,我將期待在這個令人印象深刻的基礎上再接再厲,為我們的客戶、社區、股東和員工帶來持續增長和成功,並在您擔任副董事長的新職位上與您合作。我們的董事會。
On today's call, we will review our results for the second quarter of 2023 and provide an update of our operations and current 2023 outlook. Key takeaways from the call today are: solid financial performance demonstrated by earnings and loan growth and stable deposits; maintained strong capital levels and key credit quality measures, which have remained at low levels and favorable to our peer bank averages. We remain focused on disciplined expense management, while making appropriate investments that ensure a safe and sound financial institution with attractive long-term growth prospects.
在今天的電話會議上,我們將回顧 2023 年第二季度的業績,並提供最新的運營情況和當前的 2023 年展望。今天電話會議的主要要點是:盈利和貸款增長以及穩定的存款證明了穩健的財務業績;保持強勁的資本水平和關鍵信貸質量指標,這些指標仍處於較低水平,有利於我們同業銀行的平均水平。我們仍然專注於嚴格的費用管理,同時進行適當的投資,以確保金融機構安全穩健,並具有有吸引力的長期增長前景。
We are pleased with our performance during the second quarter of 2023 as our results demonstrated the strength of our franchise and successful execution of our strategic initiatives. We delivered solid earnings and loan growth and focused on maintaining our net interest margin and deposits. Earnings growth was supported by our strategic investments and associated year-to-date annualized loan growth of 8%. For the quarter ending June 30, 2023, we reported pretax pre-provision income growth of 9.2% year-over-year, and net income available to common shareholders increased 5.3% to $42.4 million with diluted earnings per share of $0.71 when excluding after-tax merger and restructuring charges.
我們對 2023 年第二季度的業績感到滿意,因為我們的業績證明了我們特許經營的實力以及我們戰略舉措的成功執行。我們實現了穩健的盈利和貸款增長,並專注於維持淨息差和存款。盈利增長得益於我們的戰略投資和相關的年初至今 8% 的年化貸款增長。截至 2023 年 6 月 30 日的季度,我們報告稅前撥備前收入同比增長 9.2%,普通股股東可獲得的淨收入增長 5.3% 至 4,240 萬美元,排除後每股攤薄收益為 0.71 美元。稅收合併和重組費用。
On a similar basis, the strength of our financial performance in this past quarter was also exhibited by a return on average tangible equity of 13%. And our capital position continues to provide financial and operational flexibility as demonstrated by our CET1 ratio of 11%. We reported total loan growth of 9% both year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter annualized, which was across all markets and loan categories. Further, this growth was underpinned by our strategic loan production office and lender hiring initiatives.
同樣,我們上一季度財務業績的強勁表現也體現在平均有形股本回報率 13% 上。我們的資本狀況繼續提供財務和運營靈活性,我們 11% 的 CET1 比率就證明了這一點。我們報告稱,所有市場和貸款類別的總貸款年增長率和環比增長率均為 9%。此外,這種增長得益於我們的戰略貸款生產辦公室和貸款人招聘計劃。
It is important to highlight that we are achieving loan growth while maintaining our high credit standards, which ensure a strong and sustainable institution. Our key credit quality measures continue to remain at relatively low levels and favorable to all banks within assets between $10 billion and $25 billion.
需要強調的是,我們在保持高信貸標準的同時實現了貸款增長,這確保了機構的強大和可持續發展。我們的主要信貸質量指標繼續保持在相對較低的水平,對資產在 100 億至 250 億美元之間的所有銀行有利。
Total loans past due as a percent of total loans were 21 basis points, down nearly 50% from last year. Nonperforming assets as a percentage of total assets declined to 19 basis points, and criticized and classified loans as a percent of total loans were 1.68%. Total commercial loan growth for the second quarter increased 6% year-over-year and 7% sequentially annualized. Furthermore, commercial and industrial loans of $1.6 billion as of June 30 increased 10.2% annualized quarter-over-quarter, which begins to reflect the benefits of our strategic initiatives.
逾期貸款總額佔貸款總額的百分比為21個基點,比去年下降近50%。不良資產佔總資產的比重下降至19個基點,批評分類貸款佔貸款總額的比重為1.68%。第二季度商業貸款總額同比增長 6%,年化環比增長 7%。此外,截至 6 月 30 日,商業和工業貸款為 16 億美元,年化季度環比增長 10.2%,這開始反映出我們戰略舉措的好處。
As we have discussed previously, we implemented a hiring strategy the last couple of years to add top-tier talent primarily C&I lenders across our robust and diverse markets. During late June, we had the opportunity to perform a lift out of a seasoned team of 5 C&I lenders in Chattanooga. This is an appealing next step in our strategic growth in Tennessee, thanks to Chattanooga's diverse and growing business landscape. We are excited about this team, and they are already contributing to our commercial pipeline.
正如我們之前所討論的,我們在過去幾年實施了一項招聘策略,以在我們強大而多元化的市場中增加頂級人才,主要是工商業貸款機構。六月下旬,我們有機會從查塔努加的 5 家 C&I 貸款機構組成的經驗豐富的團隊中進行提拔。由於查塔努加多元化且不斷發展的商業環境,這是我們在田納西州戰略增長的一個有吸引力的下一步。我們對這個團隊感到很興奮,他們已經為我們的商業渠道做出了貢獻。
Our commercial loan pipeline as of July 17 was approximately $810 million. An 11% increase from the level at June 30, and our teams continue to find business opportunities to replenish that pipeline, which drove our second quarter loan growth. Reflecting their continued maturation, our Cleveland, Indianapolis and National LPOs combined with our new team in Chattanooga are contributing approximately 17% to the commercial pipeline. The growth opportunities of our loan production office and lender hiring initiatives will continue to improve as they gain additional traction. In addition to our various liquidity sources, our loan-to-deposit ratio of 85.4% also provides us with ample lending capacity to support our customers as they grow.
截至 7 月 17 日,我們的商業貸款渠道約為 8.1 億美元。與 6 月 30 日的水平相比增加了 11%,我們的團隊繼續尋找商機來補充渠道,這推動了我們第二季度的貸款增長。我們的克利夫蘭、印第安納波利斯和國家 LPO 與我們在查塔努加的新團隊相結合,為商業管道貢獻了約 17%,這反映了它們的不斷成熟。我們的貸款生產辦公室和貸方招聘計劃的增長機會將繼續改善,因為它們獲得了更多的關注。除了我們的各種流動性來源之外,我們85.4%的存貸比也為我們提供了充足的貸款能力來支持客戶的成長。
As we mentioned last quarter, we implemented several initiatives to help drive additional organic deposit growth, albeit at potentially lower cost than peers located in major metro markets to ensure a strong and stable funding base. Both our commercial and retail teams have and continue to make concerted efforts to help us maintain our current deposit levels. Their strong efforts are demonstrated by June 30 deposit levels remaining flat to March 31, despite industry headwinds with minimal change to the percentage composition mix of our deposits.
正如我們上季度提到的,我們實施了多項舉措來幫助推動額外的有機存款增長,儘管成本可能低於主要都市市場的同行,以確保強大而穩定的資金基礎。我們的商業和零售團隊已經並將繼續共同努力,幫助我們維持當前的存款水平。儘管存在行業逆風,我們存款的百分比構成組合變化很小,但 6 月 30 日的存款水平截至 3 月 31 日仍持平,證明了他們的強大努力。
Furthermore, our commercial lenders are finding additional avenues besides deposits to deepen the banking relationship with our business customers, including our new treasury management services and commercial loan swaps. We have seen exceptional year-over-year growth of more than 300% in new commercial loan swap fees of $4.3 million through the first 6 months of 2023, which is roughly the same amount we earned for all of 2022. I expect continued strong performance during the second half of this year.
此外,我們的商業貸款人正在尋找除存款之外的其他途徑,以加深與我們的商業客戶的銀行關係,包括我們新的資金管理服務和商業貸款互換。到 2023 年前 6 個月,我們的新商業貸款互換費用同比增長超過 300%,達到 430 萬美元,這與我們 2022 年全年的收入大致相同。我預計業績將持續強勁今年下半年。
We have distinct growth strategies with unique long-term advantages, balanced distribution across economically diverse major markets and a strong customer service culture, combined with a robust digital services. We remain well capitalized with solid liquidity and a strong balance sheet with capacity to fund loan growth and focused on strengthening our diversified earnings streams for long-term success with new capabilities and strategies.
我們擁有獨特的增長戰略,具有獨特的長期優勢、在經濟多元化的主要市場上的均衡分佈、強大的客戶服務文化以及強大的數字服務。我們的資本充足,流動性充足,資產負債表強勁,有能力為貸款增長提供資金,並專注於加強多元化的盈利來源,通過新的能力和戰略實現長期成功。
I would now like to turn the call over to Dan Weiss, our CFO, for an update on our second quarter financial results and the current outlook for 2023. Dan?
我現在想將電話轉給我們的首席財務官丹·韋斯 (Dan Weiss),了解我們第二季度財務業績的最新情況以及 2023 年的當前展望。丹?
Daniel K. Weiss - Executive VP & CFO
Daniel K. Weiss - Executive VP & CFO
Thanks, Jeff, and good morning. Our second quarter results demonstrated the strength of our franchise and successful execution of our strategic initiatives as we reported solid earnings and loan growth, strong capital levels and maintain stable deposits.
謝謝,傑夫,早上好。我們第二季度的業績證明了我們的特許經營實力和戰略舉措的成功執行,因為我們報告了穩健的收益和貸款增長、強勁的資本水平並保持穩定的存款。
As presented in yesterday's earnings release, during the second quarter, we reported improved GAAP net income available to common shareholders of $42.3 million and earnings per diluted share of $0.71 and $82.8 million and $1.38 per share, respectively, year-to-date. Net income available to common shareholders, excluding after-tax restructuring and merger-related expenses for the 6 months ended June 30, 2023, was $84.7 million or $1.43 per share as compared to $83.1 million or $1.36 per share in the prior year period. Total assets of $17.4 billion at the end of the quarter included total portfolio loans of $11.1 billion and securities of $3.6 billion.
正如昨天的收益報告中所介紹的,在第二季度,我們報告今年迄今為止,普通股股東可獲得的 GAAP 淨利潤為 4230 萬美元,每股攤薄收益分別為 0.71 美元、8280 萬美元和 1.38 美元。截至 2023 年 6 月 30 日止 6 個月,普通股股東可獲得的淨利潤為 8470 萬美元,即每股 1.43 美元,而上一年同期為 8310 萬美元,即每股 1.36 美元。本季度末總資產為 174 億美元,其中投資組合貸款總額為 111 億美元,證券總額為 36 億美元。
Total portfolio loans grew 8% year-to-date annualized, reflecting the strength of our markets and lending teams, combined with our strategic lending initiatives. We were able to achieve this growth despite continuing to increase spreads, resulting in commercial loan yields in the mid-7% range. While we expect CRE loan payoffs to eventually return to more historical $90 million range, they continued to moderate during the second quarter, totaling approximately $35 million. C&I loan utilization at the end of the quarter declined 500 basis points year-over-year to 32%, which equates to roughly $50 million and lower line utilization compared to the prior year.
今年迄今為止,投資組合貸款總額年化增長了 8%,反映了我們的市場和貸款團隊的實力以及我們的戰略貸款計劃。儘管利差持續增加,我們仍能實現這一增長,導致商業貸款收益率達到 7% 左右。雖然我們預計 CRE 貸款償還最終將回到歷史上 9000 萬美元的範圍,但在第二季度繼續放緩,總額約為 3500 萬美元。本季度末的工商業貸款利用率同比下降 500 個基點至 32%,相當於約 5000 萬美元,貸款利用率低於上年。
Residential mortgage originations, which were down 37% year-over-year, totaled approximately $208 million for the second quarter, with roughly 50% of the originations sold into the secondary market. As can be seen on Slide 6 of the earnings presentation, our deposit levels reflect the granularity and relative stability of our deposit base as our average deposit size was approximately $27,000.
第二季度住宅抵押貸款發放總額約為 2.08 億美元,同比下降 37%,其中約 50% 的發放額出售給二級市場。從收益演示文稿的幻燈片 6 中可以看出,我們的存款水平反映了我們存款基礎的粒度和相對穩定性,因為我們的平均存款規模約為 27,000 美元。
Total deposits, which declined year-over-year continue to be impacted by interest rate and inflationary pressures and rising costs across the economy, combined with the Federal Reserve, tightening actions to control inflation, which has resulted in industry-wide deposit contraction. However, due to the strong efforts across our organization to improve deposit gathering and retention, combined with the addition of $60 million in new broker deposits, total deposits at June 30 were consistent with our March 31 levels.
存款總額同比下降,繼續受到利率和通脹壓力以及整個經濟成本上升的影響,加上美聯儲收緊控制通脹的行動,導致全行業存款收縮。然而,由於我們整個組織為改善存款收集和保留做出了巨大努力,再加上新經紀商存款增加了 6000 萬美元,6 月 30 日的存款總額與 3 月 31 日的水平一致。
There continues to be some shift in the mix of our deposits with noninterest-bearing demand deposits down 4.3% linked quarter. However, the percentage composition of our total demand deposits for the second quarter of '23 is relatively consistent with the mix reported during the first quarter of '23 as well as the prior year period. Total demand deposits continue to represent 59% of total deposits with noninterest-bearing component representing 33%, down slightly this quarter, but consistent with the percentage range since the beginning of 2020 between 28% and 36% of total deposits.
我們的存款與無息活期存款的結構繼續發生一些變化,環比下降 4.3%。然而,我們23年第二季度活期存款總額的百分比構成與23年第一季度以及去年同期報告的結構相對一致。活期存款總額繼續佔存款總額的 59%,無息存款佔 33%,本季度略有下降,但與 2020 年初以來佔存款總額 28% 至 36% 之間的百分比範圍一致。
The net interest margin in the second quarter of 3.18% decreased [18] basis points from the first quarter of '23, primarily due to increasing deposit cost, deposit remix and higher cost wholesale borrowings.
第二季度的淨息差為 3.18%,較 2023 年第一季度下降 [18] 個基點,主要是由於存款成本增加、存款重組和批發借款成本上升。
Total deposit funding costs, including noninterest-bearing deposits for the second quarter of '23, increased 94 basis points year-over-year and 38 basis points quarter-over-quarter to 103 basis points on a year-over-year basis. Our total deposit beta was 27% as compared to a 350 basis point increase in the federal funds rate from July of '22 through May of '23, reflecting our ability to lag peers as it relates to deposit funding cost increase. Our recent CD campaign has been successful in retaining more rate-sensitive customers, increasing $76 million quarter-over-quarter with about half of the growth related to nonmaturity deposits, migrating into the product, 1/3 from existing CD rollovers as the remainder, new growth from new customers.
2023年第二季度的總存款融資成本(包括無息存款)同比增加94個基點,環比增加38個基點,同比增加103個基點。我們的總存款貝塔值為 27%,而聯邦基金利率從 22 年 7 月到 23 年 5 月增加了 350 個基點,這反映出我們在存款融資成本增加方面落後於同行的能力。我們最近的定期存款活動成功地留住了更多對利率敏感的客戶,季度環比增加了 7600 萬美元,其中大約一半的增長與非到期存款相關,遷移到該產品中,其餘的 1/3 來自現有定期存款展期,新增長源自新客戶。
For the second quarter of '23, noninterest income of $31.8 million was up $4.9 million year-over-year, primarily due to higher commercial swap fees as well as net gains on other assets and net securities gains, both of which reported losses in the prior year period. Bank and Life Insurance increased $800,000 year-over-year due to higher debt benefits received during this quarter and mortgage banking income decreased $700,000 due to lower production volume. As Jeff mentioned, the key story within noninterest income is our renewed focus on commercial loan swaps, which are recorded in other income.
2023 年第二季度,非利息收入為 3180 萬美元,同比增長 490 萬美元,主要是由於商業掉期費用增加以及其他資產淨收益和證券淨收益,兩者均報告了虧損上一年期間。由於本季度收到的債務收益增加,銀行和人壽保險業務收入同比增加 80 萬美元,而抵押貸款銀行業務收入由於產量下降而減少 70 萬美元。正如傑夫提到的,非利息收入中的關鍵故事是我們重新關注商業貸款互換,這記錄在其他收入中。
New swap fees totaled $2.4 million, an increase of $1.6 million from the prior year period, while associated fair market value adjustments totaled $0.2 million during the second quarter as compared to $1.1 million in the prior year period. Through the first half of 2023, we've already collected more swap fee income than we did for the entire year in 2022. We continue to exhibit disciplined expense management while making appropriate long-term growth investments, especially our strategic loan production office and lender hiring initiatives. Excluding restructuring and merger-related expenses, noninterest expense for the 3 months ended June 30, 2023, totaled $96.4 million, within our previously disclosed quarterly run rate expectations.
新掉期費用總計 240 萬美元,比去年同期增加 160 萬美元,而第二季度相關的公平市場價值調整總計 20 萬美元,而去年同期為 110 萬美元。到 2023 年上半年,我們獲得的掉期費用收入已經比 2022 年全年還要多。我們繼續表現出嚴格的費用管理,同時進行適當的長期增長投資,特別是我們的戰略貸款生產辦公室和貸方招聘舉措。不包括重組和合併相關費用,截至 2023 年 6 月 30 日止 3 個月的非利息費用總計 9,640 萬美元,符合我們之前披露的季度運行率預期。
Noninterest expenses increased due to inflation, larger staffing levels and associated costs, higher FDIC insurance from an increase in the minimum rate for all banks and higher equipment and software expense from our ATM fleet upgrade and general inflationary cost increases for existing service agreements. Our capital position has remained solid, as demonstrated by regulatory ratios that are above the applicable well-capitalized standards. Our tangible common equity intangible assets as of June 30, 2023, was 7.35% and or if including held-to-maturity securities unrealized losses, 6.68%, as shown on Slide 7 of the earnings presentation.
由於通貨膨脹、人員配置水平和相關成本的增加、所有銀行最低利率提高而導致的 FDIC 保險增加、ATM 機群升級導致的設備和軟件費用增加以及現有服務協議的總體通貨膨脹成本增加,非利息支出有所增加。我們的資本狀況依然穩固,監管比率高於適用的資本充足標準就證明了這一點。截至 2023 年 6 月 30 日,我們的有形普通股無形資產為 7.35%,如果包括持有至到期證券的未實現損失,則為 6.68%,如收益演示幻燈片 7 所示。
Regarding liquidity, we actively manage our liquidity risk to ensure adequate funds to meet changes in loan demand unexpected outflows in deposits and other borrowings as well as take advantage of market opportunities as they arise. And as such, we continue to believe we're well positioned for any operating environment. Regarding our current outlook for the second half of 2023, we are now modeling Fed funds to peak at 5.75% with a 25 basis point increase expected to be announced this afternoon, along with a similar increase in September. We continue to anticipate our deposit betas to be lower than peers and generally lag the industry due to the benefit of our legacy deposit base but were not immune to industry-wide interest rate pressures.
在流動性方面,我們積極管理流動性風險,確保有足夠的資金來滿足貸款需求變化、存款和其他借款的意外外流,並抓住出現的市場機會。因此,我們仍然相信我們在任何運營環境中都處於有利位置。關於我們目前對 2023 年下半年的展望,我們目前正在建模聯邦基金利率將達到 5.75% 的峰值,預計今天下午將宣布上調 25 個基點,9 月份也會有類似的漲幅。我們繼續預計我們的存款貝塔值將低於同行,並且由於我們傳統存款基礎的好處而普遍落後於行業,但也不能免受全行業利率壓力的影響。
We also anticipate slightly higher wholesale borrowings to supplement the funding of loan growth as deposit levels are expected to be relatively flat compared to the second quarter. Reflecting the current operating environment with higher funding costs and some deposit mix shift into higher-yielding deposit products, we are modeling continued margin contraction during the third quarter at a similar pace to the second quarter's 18 basis points of contraction with margins flat to slightly down in the fourth quarter compared to the third quarter.
我們還預計批發借款將略有增加,以補充貸款增長的資金,因為存款水平預計與第二季度相比相對持平。考慮到當前融資成本較高以及部分存款組合轉向高收益存款產品的經營環境,我們對第三季度利潤率持續收縮的模型進行了建模,其收縮速度與第二季度 18 個基點的收縮速度相似,利潤率持平或略有下降第四季度與第三季度相比。
Residential mortgage originations should remain positive relative to industry trends due to our new loan production offices and hiring initiatives, but will also depend on home price and interest rate stabilization as well as available housing inventory. Our current pipeline is approximately $120 million down sequentially, but consistent with the prior year period sequential change. Trust fees and securities brokerage revenue should continue to benefit modestly from organic growth and will be impacted by equity and fixed income market trends. Electronic banking fees and service charges on deposits should remain in a similar range in the last few quarters as they are subject to overall consumer spending behaviors. And we are on pace through the first half of the year to double new commercial swap fee income over 2022.
由於我們新的貸款生產辦公室和招聘計劃,住宅抵押貸款發放相對於行業趨勢應保持積極,但也取決於房價和利率穩定以及可用住房庫存。我們目前的管道比上一季度減少了約 1.2 億美元,但與去年同期的連續變化一致。信託費用和證券經紀收入應繼續從有機增長中小幅受益,並將受到股票和固定收益市場趨勢的影響。電子銀行費用和存款服務費在過去幾個季度應保持在相似的範圍內,因為它們受到整體消費者支出行為的影響。我們正計劃在今年上半年將新的商業掉期費收入在 2022 年基礎上翻一番。
While remaining diligent on discretionary cost and delivering positive operating leverage, we will continue to make the appropriate growth-oriented investments in support of long-term sustainable revenue growth and shareholder return. Our loan production office initiative and efforts to attract and retain employees remain strategic priorities as demonstrated by our hiring of the C&I lending team in Chattanooga. Our plan is to fund the majority of the hiring with internal efforts, including the adjustment of existing staffing levels, reallocation of resources to more profitable business lines and efforts to improve efficiency. These all should help keep salaries and wages in check while recognizing midyear merit increases will impact this line item during the third quarter, similar to past years.
在繼續努力控制可自由支配成本並提供積極的運營槓桿的同時,我們將繼續進行適當的增長型投資,以支持長期可持續的收入增長和股東回報。我們的貸款生產辦公室計劃以及吸引和留住員工的努力仍然是戰略重點,我們在查塔努加聘用的 C&I 貸款團隊就證明了這一點。我們的計劃是通過內部努力為大部分招聘提供資金,包括調整現有人員配置水平、將資源重新分配到利潤更高的業務線以及努力提高效率。這些都應該有助於控制薪水和工資,同時認識到年中績效增長將在第三季度影響這一項目,與過去幾年類似。
Most other expenses should remain in similar ranges to the second quarter. Therefore, based on what we know today, we believe our quarterly expense run rate will continue to be in the mid-$90 million range. The provision for credit losses under CECL will be dependent upon changes to macroeconomic and qualitative factors as well as various critical metrics, including potential charge-offs, criticized and classified loan balances, delinquencies, changes in prepayment fees and future loan growth, And lastly, we currently anticipate our full year effective tax rate to be around 18%, subject to changes in tax regulations and taxable income levels.
大多數其他費用應保持在與第二季度類似的範圍內。因此,根據我們今天所知,我們相信我們的季度費用運行率將繼續在 9000 萬美元左右。 CECL 下的信貸損失撥備將取決於宏觀經濟和定性因素以及各種關鍵指標的變化,包括潛在的沖銷、批評和分類貸款餘額、拖欠、預付款費用的變化和未來貸款增長,最後,目前,我們預計全年有效稅率約為 18%,具體取決於稅收法規和應稅收入水平的變化。
Operator, we are now ready to take questions. Would you please review the instructions?
接線員,我們現在準備好回答問題。請您查看一下說明好嗎?
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Our first question is from Russell Gunther with Stephens.
(操作員說明)我們的第一個問題來自 Russell Gunther 和 Stephens。
Russell Elliott Teasdale Gunther - MD & Analyst
Russell Elliott Teasdale Gunther - MD & Analyst
I wanted to kick things off with a loan growth question, please. I hear you on the new hires and the contributions there. Just trying to think about the order of magnitude for the back half of the year as they bring over their books, but also your expectation for potentially some mix shift. So just sort of a general thought on loan growth volumes going forward.
我想先問一個貸款增長問題。我聽到你談論新員工和那裡的貢獻。只是想一下今年下半年他們帶來書籍的數量級,以及您對潛在的一些混合轉變的期望。這只是對未來貸款增長量的總體思考。
Jeffrey H. Jackson - Senior EVP & COO
Jeffrey H. Jackson - Senior EVP & COO
Sure, Russell. I think in a normal environment, we always look at mid- to upper single-digit growth. We have seen a tremendous pickup in our pipeline from the new hires. Our pipeline continues to remain strong. It's around $810 million with the LPOs, almost 20% of that pipeline I think the other piece of that is the mix shift you're talking about is we've hired a lot of C&I lenders to really focus on bringing full relationships that also bring in deposits and other treasury fees. So I do see -- expect to see an uptick in that type of business going forward, while we still have a very strong CRE pipeline as well, especially in our Maryland and Ohio markets.
當然,拉塞爾。我認為在正常環境下,我們總是關注中上個位數的增長。我們看到新員工的招聘數量大幅增加。我們的管道繼續保持強勁。 LPO 約為 8.1 億美元,幾乎佔該渠道的 20%,我認為另一部分是你所說的混合轉變,我們已經聘請了很多 C&I 貸款機構,真正專注於建立全面的關係,這些關係也帶來存款和其他財務費用。所以我確實看到——預計未來此類業務將會有所增長,同時我們仍然擁有非常強大的商業地產管道,特別是在我們的馬里蘭州和俄亥俄州市場。
Russell Elliott Teasdale Gunther - MD & Analyst
Russell Elliott Teasdale Gunther - MD & Analyst
Okay. Great. That's very helpful. And then, Jeff, as you think about growth opportunities going forward, are there markets you are not in that you would consider extending this strategy to even later this year in 2024?
好的。偉大的。這非常有幫助。然後,Jeff,當您考慮未來的增長機會時,您是否會考慮將這一戰略延伸到今年晚些時候(即 2024 年)?
Jeffrey H. Jackson - Senior EVP & COO
Jeffrey H. Jackson - Senior EVP & COO
Yes, we're always looking at opportunities. To me, the key factor is finding the right talent. So when I was obviously a banker and a market president in Chattanooga many years ago, I knew this group. And I always competed against this group. And so that was one of the reasons why we were able to hire them as I knew they were some of the best talent in Chattanooga from a commercial banking C&I perspective. And so we would also look to do that in other markets where we find the right talent. We're filling in our current footprint.
是的,我們一直在尋找機會。對我來說,關鍵因素是找到合適的人才。因此,當我多年前在查塔努加擔任銀行家和市場總裁時,我就認識這個群體。我總是和這個小組競爭。這就是我們能夠僱用他們的原因之一,因為我知道從商業銀行 C&I 的角度來看,他們是查塔努加最優秀的人才。因此,我們也希望在其他市場找到合適的人才來做到這一點。我們正在填補我們目前的足跡。
Russell Elliott Teasdale Gunther - MD & Analyst
Russell Elliott Teasdale Gunther - MD & Analyst
Okay. Great. And then just switching gears briefly on to the margin discussion. Appreciate the updated outlook there. Just curious if you could share some of the assumptions there as it relates to deposit mix. You mentioned the 28 to 36 non-IB contribution over the past few years. What is that updated guide kind of imply for where you think you may end the year there?
好的。偉大的。然後簡單地轉向利潤率討論。欣賞那裡更新的前景。只是好奇您是否可以分享一些與存款組合相關的假設。您提到過去幾年有 28 至 36 個非 IB 貢獻。更新後的指南對您認為今年可能會在哪裡結束意味著什麼?
Jeffrey H. Jackson - Senior EVP & COO
Jeffrey H. Jackson - Senior EVP & COO
Yes. We're looking at 2 interest rate hikes in our modeling. And if we put that in the model, we're expecting third quarter to be in kind of a similar range from a NIM compression that we had in the second quarter and then flattening out in the fourth quarter. When we look at our basically shift from noninterest-bearing to interest-bearing deposits, we feel good about where our percentage of noninterest-bearing deposits sit today at 33%. That's within the range of our pre-pandemic noninterest-bearing deposit range. So we feel pretty good about that. But once again, it depends on what the Fed does, but that's kind of some color for our NIM going forward.
是的。我們在模型中考慮了兩次加息。如果我們將其放入模型中,我們預計第三季度的淨息差壓縮程度與第二季度的淨息差壓縮程度相似,然後在第四季度趨於平緩。當我們看到我們從無息存款到有息存款的基本轉變時,我們對目前無息存款的比例達到 33% 感到滿意。這在我們大流行前的無息存款範圍內。所以我們對此感覺很好。但這又取決於美聯儲的行動,但這對我們未來的淨息差來說是一種色彩。
Daniel K. Weiss - Executive VP & CFO
Daniel K. Weiss - Executive VP & CFO
Yes. And I would just add that we saw in the second quarter that about $200 million or so in noninterest-bearing migrating to interest-bearing products. And as I mentioned in the prepared commentary, we're kind of anticipating that rate to continue for each of the next 2 quarters. So when you think about noninterest-bearing deposits as a percentage of total deposits we're 35% at the end of the first quarter, 33% here in the second quarter. And for modeling purposes, at least, we're modeling those to represent about 30% by the end of the year.
是的。我想補充一點,我們在第二季度看到大約 2 億美元左右的無息產品轉向有息產品。正如我在準備好的評論中提到的,我們預計未來兩個季度的每個季度都會繼續保持這一速度。因此,當你考慮無息存款佔總存款的百分比時,第一季度末為 35%,第二季度為 33%。至少出於建模目的,我們對這些數據進行建模,預計到今年年底將占到 30% 左右。
Russell Elliott Teasdale Gunther - MD & Analyst
Russell Elliott Teasdale Gunther - MD & Analyst
Okay. Great. And then I guess just the last follow-up, please, on the loan deposit ratio targets. You guys mentioned increased use of borrowings in the short term. Is there a bogey you think about wanting to keep that loan-to-deposit ratio at as you bring on that kind of mid- to high single-digit growth?
好的。偉大的。然後我想這只是關於貸存比目標的最後一個後續行動。你們提到短期內借款的使用增加。在實現中高個位數增長的同時,您是否想過要保持貸存比不變?
Jeffrey H. Jackson - Senior EVP & COO
Jeffrey H. Jackson - Senior EVP & COO
We target low 90s as kind of an optimal level. We also have about $100 million in cash flow coming off our securities every quarter, which could also help fund loan growth. But for us, sitting at 85%, we have plenty of powder to continue to push for loan growth and once again targeting low 90s, but are not afraid to go higher if we get the right deals at the right level of profitability.
我們的目標是 90 歲以下作為最佳水平。每個季度我們的證券還產生約 1 億美元的現金流,這也有助於為貸款增長提供資金。但對於我們來說,目前的利率為 85%,我們有足夠的動力繼續推動貸款增長,並再次瞄準 90 多歲的低水平,但如果我們在適當的盈利水平上獲得正確的交易,我們也不害怕走得更高。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) The next question is from Daniel Tamayo with Raymond James. It appears Mr. Tamayo has disconnected. The next question is from Dave Bishop with Hovde Group.
(操作員說明)下一個問題是 Daniel Tamayo 和 Raymond James 提出的。塔馬約先生似乎已斷開連接。下一個問題來自 Hovde Group 的 Dave Bishop。
David Jason Bishop - Director
David Jason Bishop - Director
I want to follow up on Russell's question regarding loan growth. I think you mentioned you're seeing some opportunities on the commercial real estate side, I think particularly in Ohio, Maryland. Just curious what pricing you're seeing there and maybe what types of projects are you able to maybe grow that are standing out within those markets, what types of property types?
我想跟進拉塞爾關於貸款增長的問題。我想你提到你在商業房地產方面看到了一些機會,我認為特別是在俄亥俄州和馬里蘭州。只是好奇您在那裡看到的定價是什麼,也許您能夠發展哪些類型的項目,這些項目在這些市場中脫穎而出,哪些類型的房地產類型?
Jeffrey H. Jackson - Senior EVP & COO
Jeffrey H. Jackson - Senior EVP & COO
Sure. We're seeing retail and also some multifamily coming through. Pricing has been pretty good. We shoot for a 300 spread. I'm not saying we get that all the time, but that's kind of our targeted spread right now is 300, but really seeing some good opportunities with some great guarantors and keeping with our conservative credit nature. We feel we're really good about the types of deals we're bringing on our books.
當然。我們看到零售業和一些多戶住宅的興起。定價已經相當不錯了。我們的目標是 300 點差。我並不是說我們一直都這樣,但我們現在的目標利差是 300,但確實看到了一些好的機會,有一些優秀的擔保人,並保持了我們保守的信貸性質。我們覺得我們非常擅長在書籍上帶來的交易類型。
David Jason Bishop - Director
David Jason Bishop - Director
Got it. And the level of swap fees obviously up nicely here. Did I hear during the preamble that you expect a similar amount of swap fees in the second half of the year? Or did I misinterpret that guidance?
知道了。這裡的掉期費用水平顯然很高。我在序言中是否聽說您預計下半年會有類似金額的掉期費用?或者我誤解了該指導?
Jeffrey H. Jackson - Senior EVP & COO
Jeffrey H. Jackson - Senior EVP & COO
Yes, you did. We made a big push at the end of last year to retrain all our commercial lenders on swaps and adjusted our incentives. And so we are targeting doubling what we did last year, which was around $4 million.
是的,你做到了。去年年底,我們大力推動對所有商業貸款機構進行掉期再培訓,並調整了我們的激勵措施。因此,我們的目標是比去年增加一倍,即 400 萬美元左右。
David Jason Bishop - Director
David Jason Bishop - Director
$4 million, okay, great. And then the entrance and the team live down to Chattanooga. Just curious, any other markets in Tennessee that you might have circle for entrants in the near term?
400萬美元,好吧,太棒了。然後入口和團隊住到查塔努加。只是好奇,田納西州還有其他市場可以在短期內吸引進入者嗎?
Jeffrey H. Jackson - Senior EVP & COO
Jeffrey H. Jackson - Senior EVP & COO
We're still looking at filling out our Nashville team. We opened the LPO about a year ago, and we've got some opportunities there. But I would say we're always looking at different markets and opportunities in Tennessee and other states. Once again, it's really based on where we find great talent that fits in with our credit culture and likes to do the type of business that we've always done over the last 153 years.
我們仍在考慮充實我們的納什維爾團隊。我們大約一年前開設了 LPO,我們在那裡得到了一些機會。但我想說,我們一直在田納西州和其他州尋找不同的市場和機會。再說一遍,這實際上取決於我們在哪裡找到符合我們信用文化並喜歡從事我們過去 153 年來一直從事的業務類型的優秀人才。
Operator
Operator
The next question is from Daniel Tamayo with Raymond James.
下一個問題是丹尼爾·塔馬約和雷蒙德·詹姆斯提出的。
Daniel Tamayo - Research Analyst
Daniel Tamayo - Research Analyst
So I apologize if I missed this, while I was off, but just wanted to kind of put a point on the expense guidance, the mid-90s. Are you trying to say that there is a bit of a decline expected or kind of similar to what you did in the second quarter with the 96.5%?
因此,如果我在休息期間錯過了這一點,我深表歉意,但我只是想強調一下 90 年代中期的費用指導。您是想說預期會出現一些下降,還是與第二季度 96.5% 的情況類似?
Jeffrey H. Jackson - Senior EVP & COO
Jeffrey H. Jackson - Senior EVP & COO
We have some cost saves that we're working on for the back half of the year. And once again, our new hires, we've kind of done some performance management to help make them cost neutral as well. So I would say, we're working on some cost saves that will probably keep us in the mid-90s for the rest of the year. Dan, any comments?
我們正在努力在今年下半年節省一些成本。再一次,我們對新員工進行了一些績效管理,以幫助他們實現成本中性。所以我想說,我們正在努力節省一些成本,這可能會讓我們在今年剩下的時間裡保持在 90 年代中期。丹,有什麼意見嗎?
Daniel K. Weiss - Executive VP & CFO
Daniel K. Weiss - Executive VP & CFO
I agree. I think certainly, the headwinds heading into the back half of the year would be the year merit increases. So if you think about the salary folks are received their, increases in June, hourly in August. So we'll see the full run rate for the salary and most of the hourly hit in the third quarter. But to the point that Jeff made there, we certainly do have some cost savings initiatives that we've taken -- that some of those actions have already been taken. And hopefully, we expect to see the rewards there in the back half of the year.
我同意。我認為,下半年的逆風當然將是績效增加的一年。因此,如果你考慮一下人們收到的工資,六月份會增加,八月份每小時會增加。因此,我們將在第三季度看到工資和大部分小時工資的全部運行率。但就傑夫所說的而言,我們確實已經採取了一些成本節約舉措——其中一些行動已經採取了。希望我們能夠在今年下半年看到回報。
Daniel Tamayo - Research Analyst
Daniel Tamayo - Research Analyst
Okay. And then we've talked a lot about the swap fees. I think you said everything else pretty stable. So it feels like the overall run rate I guess, absent maybe some unusual activity in BOLI feels relatively good around that $31.5 million, maybe closer to $31 million range on a quarterly basis.
好的。然後我們討論了很多關於掉期費用的問題。我認為你說的其他一切都很穩定。因此,我猜想,如果沒有 BOLI 的一些不尋常活動,總體運行率感覺相對較好,約為 3150 萬美元,也許更接近季度 3100 萬美元的範圍。
Daniel K. Weiss - Executive VP & CFO
Daniel K. Weiss - Executive VP & CFO
Yes. I think that's a good jumping off point for third quarter. It's, for the most part, expect the trends in the second quarter to continue into the third.
是的。我認為這是第三季度的一個很好的起點。在大多數情況下,預計第二季度的趨勢將持續到第三季度。
Operator
Operator
The next question is from Karl Shepard with RBC Capital Markets.
下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的卡爾·謝潑德 (Karl Shepard)。
Karl Robert Shepard - Assistant VP
Karl Robert Shepard - Assistant VP
Todd, congrats on the run. You've left the bank in a good place for Jeff. I guess just for my first question, Dan, I wanted to drill down on the margin guidance a little bit more. Does the September hike have much of an impact on your outlook for the fourth quarter? Or just now with the pacing of hikes kind of spaced out? It seems like things will be pretty manageable with or without beyond next quarter.
托德,恭喜你成功逃脫。你已經把銀行留給了傑夫一個好地方。丹,我想對於我的第一個問題,我想進一步深入了解保證金指導。 9月份的加息對您對第四季度的展望有很大影響嗎?或者現在徒步旅行的節奏有點分散?無論是否在下個季度之後,事情似乎都將變得相當容易管理。
Daniel K. Weiss - Executive VP & CFO
Daniel K. Weiss - Executive VP & CFO
Yes. I would say it's -- the September hike is less impactful than the hike that we're expecting this afternoon to certainly the 2023 earnings. If you think about our commercial loans about 70% of them are variable rate and about 54% of that or about $3 billion reprices every 3 months. So that 25 basis point hike if it occurs today, would certainly benefit about $3 billion in those variable rate loans mostly in the fourth quarter, not so much probably in the third quarter. So we'll see that benefit there. On the flip side, on the funding side, of course, the wholesale borrowings we have about $1.3 billion. Those also, for the most part, are pretty closely tied to the rate hikes as well, pretty short term in nature. A lot of -- mostly 1-month advances, a little bit or some terms out, but -- so we'll see some cost increase as well on that side as well. But yes, that's about where we are. Don't expect the September hike to really impact '23 results much more than maybe a little bit of a boost in December.
是的。我想說的是,9 月加息的影響小於我們今天下午預計的 2023 年收益加息的影響。如果您考慮一下我們的商業貸款,其中大約 70% 是可變利率,其中大約 54% 或大約 30 億美元每 3 個月重新定價一次。因此,如果今天加息 25 個基點,那麼這些可變利率貸款肯定會受益約 30 億美元,主要是在第四季度,而不是在第三季度。所以我們會看到那裡的好處。另一方面,當然,在資金方面,我們擁有約 13 億美元的批發借款。在很大程度上,這些也與加息密切相關,本質上是相當短期的。很多——主要是 1 個月的預付款,一點點或一些條款已經到期,但是——所以我們也會看到這方面的成本增加。但是,是的,這就是我們現在的處境。不要指望 9 月份的加息對 23 年業績的真正影響會比 12 月份的一點點提振更大。
Karl Robert Shepard - Assistant VP
Karl Robert Shepard - Assistant VP
Okay. That's helpful. And then jumping back to the deposit topic. It sounds like CDs have kind of been the main driver of some of the initiatives. But any other trends to call out in terms of incentives for your team and things like that is also helping support the more stable balances?
好的。這很有幫助。然後跳回到存款主題。聽起來 CD 似乎是某些舉措的主要推動力。但是,在激勵您的團隊以及類似的事情方面還有其他趨勢也有助於支持更穩定的平衡嗎?
Jeffrey H. Jackson - Senior EVP & COO
Jeffrey H. Jackson - Senior EVP & COO
Well, we did for the first time this year include deposits into the commercial incentives. And so we are seeing a nice pipeline build there, and we actually got several nice wins over the last couple of weeks. So I think you're going to see our deposit gathering activities really pick up in the back half of the year.
嗯,我們今年第一次將存款納入商業激勵措施中。因此,我們看到那裡建立了一個很好的管道,並且在過去幾週內我們實際上取得了一些不錯的勝利。所以我認為你會看到我們的存款收集活動在今年下半年真正回升。
Karl Robert Shepard - Assistant VP
Karl Robert Shepard - Assistant VP
Okay. Great. And then just one last quick one for me. I know we've talked a lot about the swap income for this year. As you look out, we see a more stable rate environment. Should we expect that to be a headwind to swap income? Or do you think this is maybe a more sustainable run with some of the changes you made expecting that can be a little episodic?
好的。偉大的。然後是我的最後一個快速的。我知道我們已經就今年的掉期收入討論了很多。正如您所看到的,我們看到了更加穩定的利率環境。我們是否應該預期這會成為交換收入的阻力?或者你認為這可能是一個更可持續的運行,你預計會做出一些偶發性的改變?
Jeffrey H. Jackson - Senior EVP & COO
Jeffrey H. Jackson - Senior EVP & COO
Yes. I think it always depends on the economic conditions, but I believe it's going to be more stable. I feel like we had a great opportunity at the end of last year where we only -- we produced $4 million in swap income, but that was only driven by 14 commercial lenders. So once we have trained up are -- essentially 100 commercial lenders, we have a lot of upside if we can just get each commercial lender to do one swap. There's a great long sustainable upside to that product for us.
是的。我認為這總是取決於經濟狀況,但我相信它會更加穩定。我覺得去年年底我們有一個很好的機會,我們只產生了 400 萬美元的掉期收入,但這只是由 14 家商業貸款機構推動的。因此,一旦我們培訓了基本上 100 個商業貸款人,如果我們能讓每個商業貸款人進行一次互換,我們就有很大的優勢。該產品對我們來說具有巨大的長期可持續優勢。
Operator
Operator
The next question is from Casey Whitman with Piper Sandler.
下一個問題是凱西·惠特曼和派珀·桑德勒提出的。
Casey Cassiday Orr Whitman - MD & Senior Research Analyst
Casey Cassiday Orr Whitman - MD & Senior Research Analyst
So it sounds like your margin is hopefully going to bottom at around 3% over the next few quarters. I know we've talked a lot about what's the outlook is over the next couple of quarters. Can you maybe address how you're thinking about the margin for next year? Whether there's a Fed pause or maybe even cuts are there opportunities for expansion you think off of that 3% range? Or what sort of environment would you need for that?
因此,聽起來您的利潤率有望在接下來的幾個季度內降至 3% 左右。我知道我們已經就未來幾個季度的前景進行了很多討論。您能否談談您對明年利潤率的看法?無論美聯儲是否暫停加息,甚至可能降息,您認為在 3% 的範圍之外是否還有擴張的機會?或者說你需要什麼樣的環境?
Daniel K. Weiss - Executive VP & CFO
Daniel K. Weiss - Executive VP & CFO
Yes, that's a great question and one that's pretty difficult to answer, given your expectations or my expectations of when the Fed, how long that Fed pause is and when they start cutting rates. I would tell you that at least today, we're projecting a Fed cut in the second quarter and a number of cuts thereafter leading through 2024. But today, our margin would be relatively -- at least what we model would be relatively flat compared to the fourth quarter through that first rate hike. And then I think we begin to see a little bit of maybe lift in the back half of '24. There are a ton of assumptions going into that, so I would qualify that with -- don't quote me in the second quarter of '24 on there.
是的,這是一個很好的問題,考慮到你或我對美聯儲何時、暫停多久以及何時開始降息的預期,這是一個很難回答的問題。我想告訴你,至少在今天,我們預計美聯儲將在第二季度降息,並在此後進行多次降息,直至 2024 年。但今天,我們的利潤率將相對較低——至少我們的模型與 2024 年相比將相對持平。到第四季度首次加息。然後我認為我們可能會在 24 年後半段看到一些提振。這裡面有很多假設,所以我會用——不要在 24 年第二季度引用我的話來限定這一點。
Casey Cassiday Orr Whitman - MD & Senior Research Analyst
Casey Cassiday Orr Whitman - MD & Senior Research Analyst
Understood. Understood. And then switching gears, we saw an M&A deal get announced yesterday in Virginia. So just maybe remind us sort of how you guys are thinking about M&A here and other capital uses?
明白了。明白了。然後,我們看到昨天在弗吉尼亞州宣布了一項併購交易。那麼也許提醒我們一下你們是如何考慮這裡的併購和其他資本用途的?
Jeffrey H. Jackson - Senior EVP & COO
Jeffrey H. Jackson - Senior EVP & COO
Sure. I'll start with basically our capital strategy. We put dividends first, loan growth second, then M&A and buybacks kind of third and fourth. For us, we're always opportunistic. If the right deal came along, we would be open to doing a deal in our existing footprint or contiguous states. I think our bank has always proven that some of our strategy is to build out loan production offices, test the markets and then potentially look for an acquisition. But I would -- with the deal being announced yesterday, I think that basically breaking the seal on the first deal we've kind of seen since the banking crisis earlier this year, we'll be opportunistic where it makes sense.
當然。我將從我們的資本戰略開始。我們把股息放在第一位,貸款增長第二,然後是併購和回購第三和第四。對於我們來說,我們總是機會主義的。如果達成正確的協議,我們將願意在我們現有的足跡或鄰近的州達成協議。我認為我們的銀行一直證明我們的一些策略是建立貸款生產辦公室,測試市場,然後可能尋求收購。但我會——隨著昨天宣布的交易,我認為基本上打破了自今年早些時候銀行業危機以來我們看到的第一筆交易的密封,我們將在有意義的地方採取機會主義。
Casey Cassiday Orr Whitman - MD & Senior Research Analyst
Casey Cassiday Orr Whitman - MD & Senior Research Analyst
All right. Great. Todd wishing you well on your retirement. You'll be missed, but you've left us in good hands, so thank you.
好的。偉大的。托德祝您退休後一切順利。我們會想念你的,但你讓我們得到了很好的照顧,所以謝謝你。
Operator
Operator
Next question is from Catherine Mealor with KBW.
下一個問題來自 KBW 的 Catherine Mealor。
Catherine Fitzhugh Summerson Mealor - MD & SVP
Catherine Fitzhugh Summerson Mealor - MD & SVP
Most of my questions were answered. I thought I just circle back one last thing on the margin. Just thinking about CD repricing. You haven't seen a big change in your CD growth a little bit up this quarter, but still remains really low as a percentage of your overall deposit mix. And so kind of 2 things. As we think -- as we look at where your CD rates are today, I'm assuming as those are maturing and repricing that coming up a lot. And so just kind of trying to think about maybe what that pace looks like and where the CD rates are repricing too? And then also how you think about that as a percentage of the composition of overall deposits as we move through next year?
我的大部分問題都得到了解答。我想我只是在邊緣迴旋了最後一件事。只是在考慮 CD 重新定價。本季度您的定期存款增長並未出現大的變化,但在整體存款組合中所佔的百分比仍然很低。等等兩件事。正如我們所想,當我們查看今天的 CD 利率時,我假設隨著 CD 利率的成熟和重新定價,CD 利率將會大幅上升。因此,我們想一下這個速度是什麼樣的,以及 CD 利率也在哪裡重新定價?然後,當我們進入明年時,您如何看待它佔總存款構成的百分比?
Daniel K. Weiss - Executive VP & CFO
Daniel K. Weiss - Executive VP & CFO
Yes. So I would say we certainly saw the $76 million increase in CDs here in the second quarter. That's probably the largest increase in CDs we've seen in a decade or more since we've been running down that portfolio for quite a while. CDs reprice. So if we think about for a second, that $76 million of growth, about half of that would be related to non-maturity deposit customers migrating over to basically, we have a 7-month CD special at 4.5%. And then about 1/3 of that would be the CD rollover that you're referring to and then, call it, the last 15% is just new money.
是的。所以我想說,我們確實看到第二季度 CD 增加了 7600 萬美元。這可能是自我們長期縮減該投資組合以來十年或更長時間以來 CD 的最大增幅。 CD 重新定價。因此,如果我們想一想,7600 萬美元的增長,其中大約一半將與非到期存款客戶遷移到基本上有關,我們有 7 個月定期存款特價,利率為 4.5%。然後其中大約 1/3 就是您所指的 CD 展期,最後 15% 只是新資金。
So we're talking about a remix from -- in some cases, it could be noninterest-bearing or lower interest-bearing moving up to 4.5%. And the rollover today, it's about 50 -- I think about on an average about 50 basis points repricing up to about 4.5 or 450 basis points.
因此,我們正在討論的重組——在某些情況下,它可能是無息或較低的息息,最高可達 4.5%。今天的展期約為 50 個基點——我認為平均約為 50 個基點,重新定價可達約 4.5 或 450 個基點。
Catherine Fitzhugh Summerson Mealor - MD & SVP
Catherine Fitzhugh Summerson Mealor - MD & SVP
Okay. Right. Great. And would you expect that -- I mean you're right, we haven't seen an increase in the CD book and so long. And would you expect to see that to continue as we move through the year?
好的。正確的。偉大的。你會想到嗎——我的意思是你是對的,我們已經很久沒有看到 CD 書的增加了。您是否希望看到這種情況在今年繼續下去?
Daniel K. Weiss - Executive VP & CFO
Daniel K. Weiss - Executive VP & CFO
Yes. So we're modeling that to continue, again, kind of a similar pace to what we saw here in the second quarter. So yes, I want to make sure that we're taking care of those customers that are more rate sensitive that want to -- are okay with locking their money up for some period of time. And so yes, we would expect that pace to continue at least through the end of the year.
是的。因此,我們正在對其進行建模,以繼續以與我們在第二季度看到的類似的速度進行。所以,是的,我想確保我們照顧到那些對利率更敏感、願意將資金鎖定一段時間的客戶。所以,是的,我們預計這種速度至少會持續到今年年底。
Catherine Fitzhugh Summerson Mealor - MD & SVP
Catherine Fitzhugh Summerson Mealor - MD & SVP
Okay. That makes sense. That's great. And then maybe one other thing on the loan side. I think you mentioned new loans were coming in, in the [mid-7], I think, that's what you said earlier in the call. Just kind of thinking about how your -- within your margin guidance, where you're thinking about loan yields moving to?
好的。這就說得通了。那太棒了。然後也許是貸款方面的另一件事。我想你提到新貸款將在[7月中旬]到來,我想這就是你在電話會議早些時候所說的。只是想一下,在您的保證金指導範圍內,您考慮的貸款收益率將如何變化?
Jeffrey H. Jackson - Senior EVP & COO
Jeffrey H. Jackson - Senior EVP & COO
I would think that if the Fed increases rates, obviously, our own yields would follow that to some degree. So I would -- if we get 2 more increases, then you're probably looking at 8 handle on the rates. I'm not saying all of them would be there, but we're looking around the average. I mean, we have to continue to raise like everybody else does, to following the Fed.
我認為,如果美聯儲加息,顯然,我們自己的收益率也會在某種程度上跟隨加息。所以我會——如果我們再增加 2 倍,那麼您可能會看到 8 倍的利率。我並不是說所有人都會在那裡,但我們正在關注平均水平。我的意思是,我們必須像其他人一樣繼續加息,跟隨美聯儲的腳步。
Daniel K. Weiss - Executive VP & CFO
Daniel K. Weiss - Executive VP & CFO
Yes. Agreed.
是的。同意。
Catherine Fitzhugh Summerson Mealor - MD & SVP
Catherine Fitzhugh Summerson Mealor - MD & SVP
All right. Everything else was (inaudible). It's a great quarter. And congrats, Todd, we will miss you.
好的。其他一切都是(聽不清)。這是一個很棒的季度。恭喜托德,我們會想念你的。
Operator
Operator
The next question is from Manuel Navas with D.A. Davidson.
下一個問題是曼努埃爾·納瓦斯 (Manuel Navas) 和 D.A. 提出的。戴維森。
Manuel Antonio Navas - VP & Research Analyst
Manuel Antonio Navas - VP & Research Analyst
How are you guys kind of -- a lot of my questions have been answered, but I just wanted to catch up on how are you thinking about borrowings versus wholesale borrowings versus kind of brokered deposits?
你們怎麼樣——我的很多問題都得到了解答,但我只是想了解你們如何看待借款、批發借款和經紀存款?
Daniel K. Weiss - Executive VP & CFO
Daniel K. Weiss - Executive VP & CFO
Yes. So today, we've got $200 million in broker deposits, and that's at Fed funds plus about 40 basis points. We've kind of taken the strategy or thought that it's nice to kind of dive into both sides to provide plenty of opportunity to borrow both from the Federal Home Loan Bank as well as on the brokerage side. Certainly, FHLB borrowings are much easier and simpler and give a call within hours, half the cash. So I would say we're not -- if we did any additional broker, it might be -- it would be dependent obviously on loan growth and deposit flows and things like that. But for the most part, we would be mostly relying on Federal Home Loan Bank borrowings. And quite frankly, the rates are pretty consistent. It's just a matter of timing and how quickly and how easy it is to gather those.
是的。所以今天,我們有 2 億美元的經紀人存款,這是聯邦基金加上大約 40 個基點。我們已經採取了這種策略,或者認為,深入雙方的業務以提供大量從聯邦住房貸款銀行和經紀方面借款的機會是件好事。當然,FHLB 的借貸更加容易和簡單,幾個小時內就可以打電話,現金費用減半。所以我想說,我們不會——如果我們增加任何經紀人,它可能會——這顯然取決於貸款增長和存款流量以及類似的因素。但在大多數情況下,我們將主要依賴聯邦住房貸款銀行的借款。坦率地說,利率相當一致。這只是一個時間問題,以及收集這些信息的速度和容易程度。
Manuel Antonio Navas - VP & Research Analyst
Manuel Antonio Navas - VP & Research Analyst
And with the NIM commentary, I guess it seems like it includes cash staying a little bit elevated for at least the back half of this year. It's earning pretty well, too.
從 NIM 的評論來看,我猜現金似乎至少在今年下半年保持在一定水平。收入也還不錯啊
Daniel K. Weiss - Executive VP & CFO
Daniel K. Weiss - Executive VP & CFO
It does. So if you think -- if you look back to the end of the year, we were running cash around 2.5% of total assets. Through kind of that period, the last, I'll call it, 4 months, we've been running holding cash -- holding a little more cash for obvious reasons and just like really the rest of the industry. But yes, we plan to bring that back down to right around 3%. I would say, total assets. That's where we're modeling for the remainder of the year, which is a healthy range. But at the same time, and to the point that you just made to the extent you're borrowing from the Federal Home Loan Bank at Fed funds plus 15 or 25 basis points, you're earning Fed funds on the cash. So there's really only about 25 -- 15 to 25 basis points of cost to hold a little extra cash. And we feel over the last 4 months, certainly, it was well worth it.
確實如此。因此,如果您回顧一下今年年底,您會發現我們的現金約佔總資產的 2.5%。在那個時期,我稱之為最後四個月,我們一直持有現金——出於明顯的原因持有更多現金,就像行業中的其他公司一樣。但是,是的,我們計劃將其降至 3% 左右。我想說的是總資產。這就是我們為今年剩餘時間建模的情況,這是一個健康的範圍。但與此同時,如果您以聯邦住房貸款銀行的利率加 15 或 25 個基點向聯邦住房貸款銀行借款,那麼您就可以從現金中賺取聯邦基金。因此,持有少量現金實際上只需要大約 25 - 15 到 25 個基點的成本。當然,我們覺得在過去的四個月裡,這是非常值得的。
Operator
Operator
This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Jeff Jackson for any closing remarks.
我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉回傑夫·傑克遜發表閉幕詞。
Jeffrey H. Jackson - Senior EVP & COO
Jeffrey H. Jackson - Senior EVP & COO
Thank you for joining us today. During the second quarter, we generated solid earnings and loan growth, maintained strong capital levels and held deposits stable. Further, we remain focused on disciplined expense management while making appropriate investments that ensure a safe and sound financial institution with attractive long-term growth prospects. We look forward to speaking with you in the near future at one of our upcoming investor events, and have a great day.
感謝您今天加入我們。第二季度,我們實現了穩健的盈利和貸款增長,保持了強勁的資本水平並保持了穩定的存款。此外,我們仍然專注於嚴格的費用管理,同時進行適當的投資,以確保金融機構安全穩健,並具有有吸引力的長期增長前景。我們期待在不久的將來在我們即將舉行的投資者活動之一中與您交談,並祝您度過愉快的一天。
Operator
Operator
The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.
會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連接。