Wabash National Corp (WNC) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Standing by, and welcome to the Wabash Fourth Quarter 2023 earnings.

敬請期待 Wabash 2023 年第四季財報。

I would now like to welcome Ryan of Investor Relations to begin the call. Brian, over to you.

現在我歡迎投資者關係部的 Ryan 開始通話。布萊恩，交給你了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us on this call. With me today are Brent EOG, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Mike Pettit, Chief Financial Officer.

大家早安，感謝您參加我們的這次電話會議。今天與我在一起的有總裁兼執行長 Brent EOG 和財務長 Mike Pettit。

A couple of items before we get started.

在我們開始之前有幾個項目。

First, please note this call is being recorded. I'd also like to point out that our earnings release, a slide presentation supplementing today's call and any non-GAAP reconciliations are available at IR.one Wabash.com.

首先，請注意此通話正在錄音。我還想指出，我們的收益發布、補充今天電話會議的幻燈片演示以及任何非 GAAP 調節表均可在 IR.one Wabash.com 上獲取。

Please refer to Slide 2 in our earnings deck for the company's safe harbor disclosure. Addressing forward-looking statements. I'll hand it off now to Brent.

請參閱我們損益表中的投影片 2，以了解該公司的安全港揭露資訊。處理前瞻性陳述。我現在就把它交給布倫特。

Thanks, Ryan, and good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us today. 2023 has been a year in which we've substantially exceeded the financial performance in any year of the Company's history. I'd like to congratulate the Wabash team on the significant achievements beyond our financial accomplishments. I'm even more excited about the strategic progress we have made during 2023 and how it positions us to generate even stronger performance going forward for our employees, our customers and our other stakeholders and thinking about our strategic accomplishments in 2023, I'd like to emphasize the theme of connections, relationships and networks. Our journey began with enhancing the core of our business through greater connection with our customers. The transformation to be a more customer-centric organization has been a pivotal change. We created more points of connection with our customers with enhanced driving capacity, greater focus on parts and services as well as innovative offerings like trailers out of service style, Wabash to add recurring longer term value beyond our initial transaction, these advancements have not only deepened our customer engagement, but have also enriched our collaborations with suppliers and technology partners by gaining a more profound understanding of our customer problems and their opportunities. We are now able to share valuable insights with our suppliers. Our technology partners and other parties that can contribute to customer success. The power of bringing our ecosystem together for our customers enhances our collective ability to elevate performance through the cycle. We have solidified specific partnerships with HDI. and the frontline group, which is enabling Wabash to grow recurring revenue within the transportation, logistics and distribution ecosystem. Our Wabash parts joint venture with HTI. rapidly establish significant distribution capabilities that allow our dealer network efficient access to our comprehensive portfolio of aftermarket parts. Certainly group is now playing a crucial role in advancing our digital capabilities, which aim to revolutionize the online experience for our dealers, traditional and nontraditional suppliers of both parts and services and a broad set of customers spanning across the vast transportation and logistics landscape. We've also made a commitment to deepening our relationship with our employees. We appreciate the strong employee engagement enable superior financial performance. Our focus is on cultivating and work environment and a culture that keeps respect for our employees front and center by empowering them to constantly bring their best selves to work and an atmosphere that drives an openness for change and innovative spirit. This commitment to a high-performance culture is not just about achieving corporate goals. It's about fostering a sense of unity of purpose for every individual feels respected and valued and part of something bigger with every day that goes by Wabash its margin, its role as a visionary leader with the capability to address the opportunities with an increasingly complex transportation, logistics and distribution ecosystem. Our strategy very much intends to harness our expanding ecosystem to create enhanced value for all Engage parties as we contemplated the strategic positioning we've attained in most recent years. Emerging set of capabilities will continue to scale over time to ensure we accelerate effectively, we have made the decision to shift our organizations, enhance our focus on bringing our longer term strategy plans to life in December, Dustin Smith transition from Chief Strategy Officer to Chief Operating Officer, and Christine Lazar, the Chief Administrative Officer. Dustin has been instrumental in our strategy refresh and will now lead our operations through this vital phase. His role will focus on the deployment of operational manufacturing capabilities required to foster growth in our business, Chris, that has led our Legal and People support functions over the past few years as Chief Administrative Officer to ensure we possess the required capabilities and business processes to act on our business in a manner that drives respect for people to the highest achievable levels, a culture that embraces change and the capacity to scale our business to new levels of performance. Our team is excited about these changes, and I'd like to extend my congratulations to Dustin and Christine on their new roles.

謝謝瑞安，大家早安，謝謝您今天加入我們。 2023 年是我們財務表現大幅超過公司歷史上任何一年的一年。我要祝賀 Wabash 團隊在財務成就之外的重大成就。我對 2023 年我們取得的策略進展以及它如何使我們能夠為我們的員工、客戶和其他利害關係人創造更強勁的業績感到更加興奮，並思考我們在 2023 年的策略成就，我想強調聯繫、關係和網絡的主題。我們的旅程始於透過加強與客戶的聯繫來增強我們業務的核心。轉變為更以客戶為中心的組織是一個關鍵的改變。我們與客戶建立了更多的聯繫點，增強了駕駛能力，更加關注零件和服務，以及創新產品，例如停止使用的拖車，Wabash，以在我們的初始交易之外增加經常性的長期價值，這些進步不僅加深了我們的客戶參與，但也透過更深入地了解我們的客戶問題及其機會，豐富了我們與供應商和技術合作夥伴的合作。我們現在能夠與供應商分享寶貴的見解。我們的技術合作夥伴和其他可以為客戶成功做出貢獻的各方。將我們的生態系統為客戶整合在一起的力量增強了我們在整個週期中提升績效的集體能力。我們與 HDI 鞏固了具體的合作關係。一線集團幫助 Wabash 在運輸、物流和分銷生態系統中增加經常性收入。我們的 Wabash 零件與 HTI 合資。快速建立重要的分銷能力，使我們的經銷商網路能夠有效地獲得我們全面的售後零件組合。當然，集團現在在推進我們的數位化能力方面發揮著至關重要的作用，其目標是徹底改變我們的經銷商、傳統和非傳統零件和服務供應商以及跨越廣闊運輸和物流領域的廣闊客戶的線上體驗。我們也承諾加深與員工的關係。我們讚賞強大的員工敬業度能帶來卓越的財務表現。我們的重點是培養員工的工作環境和文化，使他們能夠不斷地在工作中展現出最好的自己，從而保持對員工的尊重，以及推動開放變革和創新精神的氛圍。這種對高績效文化的承諾不僅僅是為了實現企業目標。這是為了培養一種統一的目標感，讓每個人都感到受到尊重和重視，並成為每天更大的事情的一部分，Wabash 的優勢在於，它是一個有遠見的領導者，有能力抓住日益複雜的交通帶來的機遇，物流和分銷生態系統。我們的策略非常希望利用我們不斷擴大的生態系統為所有參與者創造更大的價值，因為我們考慮了近年來所獲得的策略定位。隨著時間的推移，一系列新興能力將繼續擴大，以確保我們有效加速，我們已決定轉變我們的組織，加強我們對12 月實施長期戰略計劃的關注，達斯汀·史密斯(Dustin Smith) 從首席策略長過渡到首席策略長營運長和首席行政官 Christine Lazar。達斯汀在我們的策略更新中發揮了重要作用，現在將領導我們的營運度過這一重要階段。他的職責將側重於部署促進我們業務成長所需的營運製造能力，克里斯在過去幾年中作為首席行政官領導了我們的法律和人員支援職能，以確保我們擁有所需的能力和業務流程在我們的業務中，我們將尊重他人的方式提升到可實現的最高水平，形成一種擁抱變革的文化，並有能力將我們的業務擴展到新的績效水平。我們的團隊對這些變化感到興奮，我謹向達斯汀和克里斯汀表示祝賀，祝賀他們的新角色。

Moving on to our financial performance during the fourth quarter of 2023, we achieved earnings per share of $1.7. This brings our full year earnings to $4.81 per share, surpassing our 2025 EPS goal set in 2022 by 39%. While favorable market conditions supported this achievement, we firmly believe in the sustainability of our execution as well as the repeatability of this level of financial performance. We are showing higher levels of financial performance through all phases of the cycle, and we are confident that when the market conditions strengthen for our customers, we will achieve financial performance that exceeds 2023.

再來看 2023 年第四季的財務業績，我們實現了每股收益 1.7 美元。這使我們的全年收益達到每股 4.81 美元，比我們在 2022 年設定的 2025 年每股收益目標高出 39%。雖然有利的市場條件支持了這一成就，但我們堅信我們執行的可持續性以及這種財務表現水平的可重複性。我們在整個週期的各個階段都展現出更高水準的財務業績，我們有信心，當我們的客戶市場狀況轉好時，我們將實現超過 2023 年的財務業績。

Turning our attention to market conditions and backlog. New order activity during the fourth quarter allowed our 12-month backlog to increase sequentially to $1.6 billion during more normalized mid-cycle environment is typical to see new order activity stretch into the first quarter of the year as we expect to see in 2024 with freight rates having contracted for now 24 months, we're watching capacity exit the transportation space. Moreover, as macro destocking activity, a base business historically alleviated pressure that we've seen on the manufacturing sector. In addition to these corrective factors, the combination of a relatively strong labor market, sustained consumer spending and cooling inflation supports the likelihood of an economic soft landing, particularly considering potential interest rate cuts on the horizon, it seems clear that the transportation space has already experienced a lengthy recession and although industry participants likely be shy about making bold predictions about timing of a rebound. Freight downcycle seems unlikely the last of the entirety of 2024 Wabash is well prepared to accelerate as the winds of the market shift to our back and drive us forward.

將我們的注意力轉向市場狀況和積壓情況。第四季的新訂單活動使我們的12 個月積壓訂單在更正常化的中期環境下連續增加至16 億美元，通常會看到新訂單活動延續到今年第一季度，正如我們預計2024 年貨運業將看到的費率已經收縮了 24 個月，我們正在觀察運力退出運輸領域。此外，作為宏觀去庫存活動，基礎業務歷史上緩解了我們在製造業看到的壓力。除了這些修正因素之外，相對強勁的勞動力市場、持續的消費者支出和降溫的通膨相結合，支持了經濟軟著陸的可能性，特別是考慮到即將到來的潛在降息，運輸空間似乎已經明顯經歷了漫長的衰退，儘管行業參與者可能不願意對反彈的時間做出大膽的預測。貨運下行週期似乎不太可能是 2024 年的最後一個時期，隨著市場的風向轉向我們並推動我們前進，Wabash 已做好加速的準備。

Moving on to our financial outlook, we're initiating 2024 guidance with revenue in the range of $2.2 billion to $2.4 billion with EPS of $2 to $2.50. While this outlook is a moderation from our 2023 performance, it's important to note that the midpoint of our 2024 EPS guidance is in line with our results from 2022 and will be tied to the second-best annual financial performance in the Company's history, which was easily the best results achieved during a period of declining revenue. At no time in Wabash its history have we had the balance sheet strength, the strategic vision and the collective will to decisively continue our programmatic march through the headwinds of a difficult market.

談到我們的財務前景，我們啟動了 2024 年營收指引，營收範圍為 22 億美元至 24 億美元，每股收益為 2 美元至 2.50 美元。雖然這一前景較我們2023 年的業績有所放緩，但值得注意的是，我們2024 年每股收益指引的中點與我們2022 年的業績一致，並將與公司歷史上第二好的年度財務績效掛鉤。在收入下降期間輕鬆取得最佳成果。在瓦巴什歷史上，我們從未有過這樣的資產負債表實力、戰略願景和集體意願，能夠在困難的市場逆風中果斷地繼續我們的計劃前進。

In closing, 2023 has been a year of both record financial achievements and strategic advancements for Wabash. And this progress has readied us to deploy enhanced operational and manufacturing capabilities to support organic growth generated by the multitude of connections Wabash can make through our ecosystem, most immediately leveraging digital transformation to connect the footprint of 78 dealer locations to create greater ease of customer access across the network to equipment, parts and services in the more immediate term, we expect to leverage our steady backlog to demonstrate our ability to post record downturn financial performance as the freight market downturn transitions into an upswing. We are well prepared to capitalize on the potential market improvements anticipated in 2025 and beyond.

最後，2023 年對 Wabash 來說是創紀錄的財務成就和策略進步的一年。這項進展使我們做好了部署增強的營運和製造能力的準備，以支持Wabash 透過我們的生態系統建立的眾多連接所產生的有機增長，最直接地利用數位轉型來連接78 個經銷商地點的足跡，從而更方便地訪問客戶從更短期的角度來看，我們希望利用我們穩定的積壓訂單來證明我們有能力在貨運市場低迷轉為好轉時實現創紀錄的低迷財務業績。我們已做好充分準備，利用 2025 年及以後預期的潛在市場改善。

With that, I'll hand it over to Mike for his comments.

這樣，我將把它交給麥克徵求他的意見。

Thanks, Brent, for Gary. With a review of our quarterly financial results in the fourth quarter, consolidated revenue was $596 million. During the quarter, we shipped approximately 10,075 new trailers and 4,075 truck base. Gross margin was 18.2% of sales during the quarter, while operating margin came in at 10.3%. This represents year-over-year improvement of 380 and 150 basis points respectively.

謝謝布倫特，謝謝加里。回顧我們第四季的季度財務業績，綜合收入為 5.96 億美元。本季度，我們運送了約 10,075 輛新拖車和 4,075 輛卡車基地。該季度毛利率佔銷售額的 18.2%，營業利潤率為 10.3%。這意味著同比分別提高了 380 和 150 個基點。

Operating EBITDA for the fourth quarter was $76.8 million or 12.9% of sales, which was a 230-basis point improvement versus the fourth quarter of the prior year. Finally, for the quarter, net income was $50.4 million or $1.7 per diluted share.

第四季營運 EBITDA 為 7,680 萬美元，佔銷售額的 12.9%，比去年第四季提高了 230 個基點。最後，本季淨利潤為 5,040 萬美元，即稀釋後每股收益 1.7 美元。

From a segment perspective, Transportation Solutions generated revenue of $547 million and operating income of $74.6 million or 13.6% of sales. Parts and Services generated revenue of $55.2 million and operating income of $10.1 million or 18.4% of sales year to date, operating cash flow was $319 million, reflecting our strong financial performance for the fourth quarter, $115 million of operating cash flow compared to $30 million of CapEx and $2 million of expenditures for revenue generating assets resulting in free cash flow generation of $100 million during the quarter.

從細分市場來看，運輸解決方案的收入為 5.47 億美元，營業收入為 7,460 萬美元，佔銷售額的 13.6%。零件和服務收入為5,520 萬美元，營運收入為1,010 萬美元，佔年初至今銷售額的18.4%，營運現金流為3.19 億美元，反映了我們第四季度強勁的財務業績，營運現金流為1.15億美元，而營運現金流為3,000 萬美元的資本支出和 200 萬美元的創收資產支出，導致本季產生 1 億美元的自由現金流。

I'd also like to call out that full year free cash flow generation amounted to $216 million, even in a year when we invested a record of over $100 million of capital in our business. Net leverage on trailing 12-month operating EBITDA was 0.6 times. And during the fourth quarter, our credit rating was upgraded by Moody's, which followed another upgrade by S&P earlier in the year.

我還想指出，全年自由現金流產生量達到 2.16 億美元，即使在我們在業務中投資創紀錄的超過 1 億美元資本的一年也是如此。過去 12 個月營運 EBITDA 的淨槓桿率為 0.6 倍。第四季度，穆迪上調了我們的信用評級，標準普爾在今年稍早再次上調了我們的信用評級。

Turning to capital allocation, during the fourth quarter, we utilized $20 million to repurchase shares, invested $13 million in capital expenditures and $2 million of expenditures for revenue-generating assets and paid our quarterly dividend of $4 million. For the full year, we invested $98 million in capital expenditures, $6 million in expenditures for revenue generating assets and allocated $67 million to repurchase shares while returning $60 million to shareholders via our dividend.

說到資本配置，第四季度，我們利用2000萬美元回購股票，投資1300萬美元用於資本支出，200萬美元用於創收資產支出，並支付了400萬美元的季度股息。全年，我們投資了 9,800 萬美元的資本支出，600 萬美元的創收資產支出，並撥款 6,700 萬美元用於回購股票，同時透過股息向股東返還 6,000 萬美元。

Stepping back on share repurchases, specifically, I'd like to call out that we've reduced our share count by approximately $25 million shares from the high-water mark on share count in 2014. This equates to reduction of about 35% of our share count since 2014. Looking over the last five-year period, we've repurchased $8.5 million shares or about 50% of shares over that time period. Our capital allocation focus continues to prioritize capital expenditures above our annual maintenance CapEx spend of $20 million to $25 million.

具體來說，我想指出的是，我們已經將股票數量從 2014 年股票數量的高水位線減少了約 2500 萬美元。這相當於自 2014 年以來我們的股份數量減少了約 35%。縱觀過去五年，我們回購了價值 850 萬美元的股票，約佔該時期股票的 50%。我們的資本分配重點繼續將資本支出優先於 2,000 萬至 2,500 萬美元的年度維護資本支出。

In order to support our organic growth initiatives, we are committed to maintaining our dividend. And then we anticipate continuing to evaluate opportunities for share repurchases as we have demonstrated the past five years and M&A.

為了支持我們的有機成長計劃，我們致力於維持股息。然後，我們預計將繼續評估股票回購的機會，正如我們在過去五年和併購中所展示的那樣。

Moving our outlook for 2024, we expect revenue of $2.2 billion to $2.4 billion with a midpoint of $2.3 billion. This outlook is supported by a meaningful 12-month backlog, has continued to see new order activity in January, we continue to expect truck body tank trailers and parts and services to serve as stabilizing forces in 2024 as market conditions remained stronger in those businesses relative to dry vans. Additionally, these businesses have and will continue to benefit from organizational focus and execution and trailers and truck bodies have both experienced improved volumes as we add on the business through our Wabash Management System. Additionally, parts and services is receiving considerable organizational strategic focus as we seek to grow the segment's revenue by 20% in 2024 to continue building eight broader base of recurring revenue and, of course, pull through the accretive margins that come with it.

展望 2024 年，我們預計營收為 22 億美元至 24 億美元，中位數為 23 億美元。這一前景得到了12 個月有意義的積壓的支持，1 月份繼續看到新訂單活動，我們繼續預計卡車車身罐式拖車以及零部件和服務將在2024 年發揮穩定力量，因為這些業務的市場狀況相對強勁乾燥貨車。此外，這些業務已經並將繼續受益於組織重點和執行力，隨著我們透過 Wabash 管理系統增加業務，拖車和卡車車身的銷售量都提高了。此外，零件和服務正在受到相當大的組織策略重點關注，因為我們尋求在2024 年將該部門的收入增長20%，以繼續建立八個更廣泛的經常性收入基礎，當然，還要拉動隨之而來的利潤成長。

From an operating income perspective, we expect to generate $163 million at the midpoint or approximately 7%. This resulted in an EPS outlook of $2 to $2.50 per share with a midpoint of $2.25 per share. I'd like to mention that in 2024, we expect to see about $6.5 million of expenses for our Wabash marketplace joint venture run below operating income since we announced the JV with burn rate group on our Q3 call, we had named sensor R&D as Managing Director of the Wabash marketplace. It comes with a diverse leadership background, scaling tech within large businesses. And we're thrilled to have him lead an entity charged with rapid growth and digitally enabled recurring revenue.

從營業收入的角度來看，我們預計中位數將產生 1.63 億美元，即 7% 左右。這導致 EPS 前景為每股 2 美元至 2.50 美元，中間值為每股 2.25 美元。我想提一下，自從我們在第三季電話會議上宣布與燒錢率小組建立合資企業以來，我們預計我們的Wabash 市場合資企業的費用將在2024 年達到約650 萬美元，低於營業收入，我們已將感測器研發部門命名為管理部門Wabash 市場總監。它具有多元化的領導背景，可在大型企業內擴展技術。我們很高興讓他領導一個負責快速成長和數位經常性收入的實體。

Moving on to capital deployment expectations for 2024. We anticipate traditional capital investment to be between $70 million and $80 million in 2024 as a result of planned expenditures to support our strategic growth initiatives. We also expect to invest in CapEx that will be immediately revenue-generating through our trailers as a service program. As a reminder, we do breakout investment and test separately, and we'll continue to give visibility to our capital allocation to that program as it grows at this point, we expect our investment in that program to grow year over year and we'll give more specific guidance as you anticipate a full year figure comes into focus. As a reminder, it's typical for Q1 to be our lowest quarter in terms of revenue and EPS generation. Our expectation is for first quarter revenue to come in between $500 million and $550 million dollars and for EPS to be between $0.45 and $0.5 a share.

接下來是 2024 年的資本部署預期。由於支持我們策略性成長計畫的計畫支出，我們預計 2024 年傳統資本投資將在 7,000 萬至 8,000 萬美元之間。我們也希望投資資本支出，透過我們的預告片即服務計畫立即產生收入。提醒一下，我們將分別進行突破性投資和測試，隨著該計劃目前的增長，我們將繼續提供對該計劃的資本分配的可見性，我們預計對該計劃的投資將逐年增長，我們將當您預計全年數據成為焦點時，提供更具體的指導。提醒一下，第一季通常是我們營收和每股盈餘最低的季度。我們預計第一季營收將在 5 億美元至 5.5 億美元之間，每股收益將在 0.45 美元至 0.5 美元之間。

In summary, I'm extremely proud of our Wabash team for generating 2023 results that exceeded our 2025 financial plan.

總而言之，我對我們的 Wabash 團隊在 2023 年取得的業績超出了我們 2025 年的財務計畫感到非常自豪。

Two years ahead of schedule.

比原計劃提前了兩年。

This achievement is a testament to our team's dedication and strategic execution.

這項成就證明了我們團隊的奉獻精神和策略執行力。

Looking ahead, we expect to maintain this momentum with improved financial performance at all phases of the cycle as we focus on our strategic growth initiatives to provide more sticky revenue in verticals that reinforce and complement our core equipment business as we enter 2024, which we expect to be a year of transition. We're pleased to demonstrate our resilience through less robust market conditions and continue pushing forward with strategic growth to position the Company to surpass 2020 three's financial performance as the freight market inevitably recovers.

展望未來，我們預計將保持這一勢頭，在周期的各個階段改善財務業績，因為我們專注於戰略增長計劃，以在垂直領域提供更多粘性收入，從而在進入2024 年時加強和補充我們的核心設備業務，我們預計是過渡的一年。我們很高興在市場環境不那麼強勁的情況下展現出我們的韌性，並繼續推進戰略增長，隨著貨運市場不可避免的複蘇，使公司的財務業績超越 2020 年的三年。

I'll now turn the call back to the operator, and we'll open it up for Q&A.

我現在將把電話轉回給接線員，然後我們將打開它進行問答。

(Operator Instructions) We'll now take a moment to compile our roster.

（操作員說明）我們現在需要一些時間來編制我們的名單。

Michael Shlisky, DA. Davidson.

邁克爾·什利斯基，DA。戴維森。

Good morning. Guys, and thanks for taking my questions on.

早安.夥計們，感謝您回答我的問題。

Can you talk a little bit about some of the to the other for trailers for 2024 being meaningfully down the cost cutting. I know I am surprised then you also you have mentioned there could be a recovery in the works. If you look at some industry forecasters are saying that in 2025 trailers could be almost a opposed, not back to where it was back in back into 2023, just one year away here. I'm curious if you could tell us if you agree with that statement, could it be a complete snapback in 2025? And can you comment on, you know, as long as rates or other metrics kind of get better by the summer, whether you can confidently said that's going to happen? Or do you need to see other things happen like interest rates, et cetera?

您能否談談 2024 年預告片的一些內容，即有意義地降低成本。我知道我很驚訝你也提到工作中可能會出現復甦。如果你看看一些行業預測人士的說法，到 2025 年，預告片可能幾乎會出現相反的情況，而不會回到 2023 年的情況，距離這裡只有一年的時間。我很好奇您能否告訴我們您是否同意這一說法，2025 年是否會出現徹底的反彈？您能否評論一下，只要利率或其他指標到夏天有所改善，您是否可以自信地說這將會發生？或者您需要看到其他事情發生，例如利率等？

I kind of probably becoming fully confident that we'll have a big increase here and next year.

我可能完全有信心我們今年和明年會有大幅成長。

Yes, Michael, great question. And obviously no one has a complete crystal ball into what 2025 will be, but I'll attempt to unpack it from our point of view, I think absolutely there are initial signs within the market that it is beginning to heal and correct itself, and those should become much more measurable. And I would say Verge on materiality in the results of our customers, probably by mid-summer. Now that clearly is that that is that hinges on continuation of the prevailing thought that we'll see interest rates actually the reduce in, I will say after March, based on the most recent feedback from the Fed. I think we want obviously, that means that the current status quo from a geopolitical standpoint doesn't materially change in that time period. But I think the things that the US economy is acting on sets us up for a much better 2025. Now I think the definition of a snapback is still needs to be unpacked and can we see and should we see a material a significant demand difference in 2025? I believe that to be the case or is it a step function change moving in to necessarily those first few months of 2025.

是的，邁克爾，好問題。顯然，沒有人對 2025 年的情況有一個完整的水晶球，但我會嘗試從我們的角度來解讀它，我認為市場上絕對有初步跡象表明它正在開始自我修復和糾正，並且這些應該變得更加可衡量。我想說的是，我們客戶的結果可能會在仲夏之前達到實質程度。現在很明顯，這取決於普遍的想法的延續，即我們將看到利率實際上會下降，我會說，根據美聯儲的最新反饋，我會在三月之後。我認為我們顯然希望，這意味著從地緣政治角度來看，目前的現狀在這段時間內不會發生實質變化。但我認為美國經濟正在採取的行動將為我們創造一個更好的 2025 年。現在我認為快速回彈的定義仍然需要重新解讀，我們是否可以看到，我們是否應該看到 2025 年材料的需求有顯著差異？我認為情況確實如此，或者這是否是 2025 年頭幾個月必然發生的階梯功能變化。

I would I would probably pull back a little bit on that.

我可能會在這一點上稍微退一步。

But I think what you will see is a signal I think we had we were sitting in a position to have a different perspective on the market going into '25. I think you'll see that robustness built throughout 2025. I think it can be material and we are planning our business based off of that being the most probable outcome at this moment.

但我認為你會看到一個訊號，我認為我們對進入 25 年的市場有不同的看法。我認為您會在 2025 年看到這種穩健性。我認為這可能很重要，我們正在根據目前最可能的結果來規劃我們的業務。

Thanks so much going for that color on.

非常感謝你選擇了這個顏色。

Maybe I can follow-up with a question for Mike.

也許我可以向麥克提出一個問題。

Then.

然後。

I mean, on the free cash outlook for '24, you've kind of Novartis to giving us a lot of the pieces here already, but I'd be curious about working capital. If you're if you're fairly confident that the company that come to see some increases in '25 versus '24 on Newfield on like just trying to keep a pretty high level of working capital to end the year it to kind of end the year here yet.

我的意思是，關於 24 年的自由現金前景，諾華已經為我們提供了很多信息，但我對營運資金感到好奇。如果你相當有信心，公司在紐菲爾德的 25 年與 24 年相比會出現一些增長，就像只是試圖保持相當高的營運資金水平來結束今年一樣，以結束這種情況今年還在這裡。

There will obviously depend on the seasonality you would see in the demand profile of what happens working capital at year end. But we would expect, obviously, with a little bit of a of a revenue step back from '23 to '24, we'd expect to see that we are the same or slightly less working capital in 2024. So it should be an enabler to free cash flow, we tend to see that. So we would expect another strong year of free cash flow in 2024, dependent on what we need to do to ramp up in the '25, but we would not expect to see an increase in working capital of '25 snapback really early in the year yet.

顯然，這取決於您在年底營運資金的需求概況中看到的季節性。但顯然，我們預計，隨著收入從 23 年到 24 年略有回落，我們預計 2024 年的營運資本將保持不變或略有減少。因此，它應該成為自由現金流的推動者，我們傾向於看到這一點。因此，我們預計 2024 年將是自由現金流強勁的一年，具體取決於我們需要採取哪些措施才能在 25 年實現增長，但我們預計今年早些時候不會真正看到 25 年營運資本的增加然而。

And I think it's a mix of factors. There is the the reduction in working capital going into 24. There will be some relative increase to prepare for '25, but at the same time, you have to integrate in their supply chains are getting better. We're moving away and more and more from the increased safety stock draws. So there's a lot to integrate there. So I echo, Mike, there's a lot of factors that go in that says it really shouldn't be a big deal moving into '25.

我認為這是多種因素共同作用的結果。營運資金減少到24。會有一些相對的增長來為'25做準備，但同時，你必須融入他們的供應鏈變得越來越好。我們正在越來越多地擺脫增加安全庫存的情況。所以有很多東西需要整合。所以我同意，麥克，有很多因素表明進入 25 年後確實不是什麼大問題。

Great. And maybe one last one for me. About reefers in '24 and '25. I didn't hear much about that in your prepared comments. I know you've got the new launch in Minnesota going and other new products launching. Can you maybe update us if that's what you think because it will be a material driver to help stabilize business in '24 and a real growth driver for '25, just us you've kind of got time, I guess how that how that stuff might rollout.

偉大的。也許對我來說是最後一件事。關於'24和'25的冷藏箱。在您準備好的評論中我沒有聽到太多相關內容。我知道你們已經在明尼蘇達州推出了新產品，並推出了其他新產品。如果您是這麼想的話，您能否告訴我們最新情況，因為這將是幫助穩定24 年業務的物質驅動力，也是25 年真正的成長驅動力，只有我們，您有時間，我想那是怎麼回事可能會推出。

I think every aspect of our strategic product portfolio will be a driver in 2025. As we do that. I don't think it's just on the reefer side. It will continue to be a growing part of our overall portfolio as well as we'll see it from dry vans. We will see platform pick up significantly from where it will be in 2024 truck bodies are going to be coming off of a very stable environment with a growing demand profile and '25 with parts and services just complementing at all. So I feel pretty good about all those different product lines and service capabilities in '25, PSI gratifying to have it.

我認為我們策略性產品組合的各個面向都將成為 2025 年的驅動力。當我們這樣做時。我不認為這只是在冷藏室一側。它將繼續成為我們整體產品組合中不斷增長的一部分，我們將從乾貨車中看到它。我們將看到平台在 2024 年的基礎上顯著回升，卡車車身將擺脫一個非常穩定的環境，需求不斷增長，而 25 年的零件和服務將完全補充。因此，我對 25 年所有這些不同的產品線和服務能力感到非常滿意，PSI 很高興擁有它。

There's two pieces that are important and Brett head on. And then just to reiterate the growth we'll see in '25, but there's also a stabilizing effect we're seeing in '24, which reefers definitely it checked. That box was the solar done Minnesota into the truck body parts. It takes it really has helped provide stabilization in their earnings profile.

有兩件事情很重要，布雷特迎面而來。然後重申我們將在 25 年看到的成長，但我們在 24 年也看到了穩定效應，冷藏箱肯定已經檢查過了。那個盒子是明尼蘇達州太陽能製成的卡車車身部件。這確實有助於穩定他們的獲利狀況。

Yes, great.

對，很好。

I appreciate the color, and I'll pass along.

我很欣賞這個顏色，我會繼續下去。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thanks, Mike.

謝謝，麥克。

Justin Long, Stephens.

賈斯汀朗，史蒂芬斯。

Thanks and good morning. Maybe the start with the question on the guidance. You provided the outlook for the first quarter. Mike, obviously a pretty big step down from an earnings perspective versus what we just saw in the fourth quarter? I know there's some seasonality, but I was just curious if you could speak to kind of any other drivers sequentially that are causing that pressure in earnings? And as you think about the quarterly cadence of EPS over the remainder of the year, is 2Q to 4Q, do you think that cadence will third quarters are pretty similar or is this a ramp over the course of the year? Is there any more color you can give us on that front capture I'll start with that first.

謝謝，早安。也許從關於指導的問題開始。您提供了第一季的前景。麥克，從獲利角度來看，與我們剛剛在第四季度看到的情況相比，顯然有相當大的下降？我知道存在一些季節性，但我只是好奇您是否可以依次與其他造成收入壓力的驅動因素交談？當您考慮今年剩餘時間內每股收益的季度節奏時，即第二季度到第四季度，您認為第三季度的節奏是否非常相似，或者這是全年的斜坡？您是否可以在前面的捕捉中為我們提供更多顏色，我將首先從它開始。

The U.S. Q1 is typically the lowest quarter of the year and the normal seasonality for us. And so we're going to see that you obviously see a step up in the other three.

美國第一季通常是一年中最低的季度，也是我們的正常季節性。因此，我們將看到您顯然會看到其他三個方面的進步。

And right now with the caveat we want to see one 25 is going to really start to pull.

現在，我們希望看到 25 號真正開始發揮作用。

But for now, we believe the calendarization of earnings in Q2 to Q4 will be relatively flat, maybe a little higher and and in Q2, but for the most part, I think is going to relatively flat in the last three quarters of the year and then the step down from Q4 to Q2 Q1, again, not uncommon. We see that a lot. It can be it can be a low time for Seasonale seasonal time for demand. There's going to be a little bit of little bit of year-over-year pricing in their Q4 to Q1 of volume. Seasonality is the biggest driver.

但就目前而言，我們認為第二季至第四季的收益日曆將相對持平，可能會更高一點，但在大多數情況下，我認為今年最後三個季度將相對持平，然後從Q4 降級到Q2 Q1，這也不罕見。我們經常看到這樣的情況。這可能是季節性需求的低谷期。第 4 季到第 1 季的銷售量將出現一些年比定價。季節性是最大的驅動因素。

Okay.

好的。

That's helpful. And I guess kind of building on that question. One thing that you've talked about strategically and I think, Brent, you mentioned this on the last call is that your plan is to maintain headcount in this environment and despite trailer production moderating and doing so that puts you in a better position to respond to the next upturn. So is there a way to think about that financial implications of that and what kind of cost or earnings headwind is this year and the near term paying you might be taking for the longer-term gain?

這很有幫助。我想這是建立在這個問題的基礎上的。你策略性地談論過一件事，我認為，布倫特，你在上次通話中提到了這一點，即你的計劃是在這種環境下維持員工人數，儘管預告片生產放緩，這樣做可以讓你處於更好的位置來應對下一次好轉。那麼，有沒有一種方法可以考慮這種情況的財務影響，以及今年和近期為長期收益可能帶來的成本或收益逆風是什麼樣的？

Yes. So we've driven it this way. When we think about headcount across the business, it is not one answer across the board. We have some aspects of the business, such as with truck bodies that will be adding headcount and versus trailers, are we looking at holding head count and we're holding head count in a manner which it is now is underutilized or not utilized labor. We've been able to secure sales and a backlog and are filling in order to utilize that labor in a standard efficiency way. And so right now, there would be little to no what I would call detrimental impact from a labor cost standpoint within our margins. Most of the rightsizing of Drive and capacity has been through shifting volume to the added capacity that we brought online and then taking out yield as our third, our third shaft leveling the plant on a two-shift operation and then what workforce we have shed has been on the temporary side, again, leaving our full-time workforce in.

是的。所以我們就這樣驅動它。當我們考慮整個企業的員工人數時，這並不是一個一刀切的答案。我們在業務的某些方面，例如卡車車身將增加人員數量，與拖車相比，我們是否正在考慮保持人員數量，我們以目前未充分利用或未利用勞動力的方式保持人員數量。我們已經能夠確保銷售和積壓訂單，並且正在填補訂單，以便以標準效率的方式利用這些勞動力。因此，現在從勞動成本的角度來看，我們的利潤率幾乎不會產生我所說的有害影響。驅動器和產能的大部分調整是透過將產量轉移到我們上線的新增產能，然後將產量作為我們的第三個，我們的第三個軸以兩班制操作平整工廠，然後我們裁減的勞動力再次處於臨時狀態，留下了我們的全職員工。

Yes.

是的。

The only thing I'd add to that is if you think about it as we believe this is more of a short-term thing.

我唯一要補充的是，如果你考慮一下，因為我們認為這更多的是短期的事情。

There's there's some downtime in the plant as opposed to mass layoffs and plant. So that's we're taking will normalize in that cost, as Brent mentioned, by taking some temporary downtime because we believe it's going to come back or trying to maintain that. That's how we handle that without having a significant cost change.

工廠有一些停機時間，而不是大規模裁員和工廠。正如布倫特所提到的，我們正在採取的措施是透過暫時停機來使成本正常化，因為我們相信它會回來或試圖維持這種狀態。這就是我們在不發生重大成本變化的情況下處理這個問題的方法。

And then there's the added upside of how we manage the workforce today. And then throughout 2024, as we bring more, we'll get more efficient, higher throughput manufacturing capability for dry vans at scale with added demand and prepare for 25. And I really want to say allows us to utilize the headcount that we have in a really efficient way and not have to take on as much of the headcount inefficiency as we move into and throughout 2025, right? So it's really not about accepting added cost right now, it's about building capability to defer and prevent inefficiency in outer call periods and years.

此外，我們今天管理員工隊伍的方式還有一個額外的好處。然後到 2024 年，隨著需求的增加，我們將獲得更有效率、更高吞吐量的乾貨車大規模製造能力，並為 25 輛做好準備。我真的想說的是，這讓我們能夠以真正有效的方式利用我們現有的員工人數，而不必在 2025 年和整個 2025 年期間承擔那麼多低效率的員工人數，對嗎？因此，現在不是要接受額外的成本，而是要建立能力來推遲和防止外部呼叫期間和年份的低效率。

Okay. That's really helpful. And I guess lastly for me, I think the act forecasts have maybe been tweaked a little bit for 2024 on trailer production, but just based on the order season that you've seen thus far, I'm curious if you still feel those act forecasts are again, best guess at this point.

好的。這真的很有幫助。我想最後對我來說，我認為 2024 年預告片製作的表演預測可能有所調整，但僅根據您迄今為止看到的訂單季節，我很好奇您是否仍然感受到這些表演預測再次是目前最好的猜測。

And then just real quickly on the guidance, Mike, curious if that includes any impact from buybacks now the guidance does not include the impact of buybacks, but that is part of that forecast.

然後很快就指導，麥克，好奇這是否包括回購的影響，現在指導不包括回購的影響，但這是預測的一部分。

I think we feel like that's generally in the ballpark.

我認為我們感覺這基本上是在大致範圍內。

Yes, the customer behavior, customer sentiment, forward-looking views that they provide us are really right in line with where they were even at the quarter call and are reflective of the general market. I think ACT has is as right as they can be based on the market.

是的，他們為我們提供的客戶行為、客戶情緒和前瞻性觀點確實與他們在季度電話會議上的情況相符，並且反映了整體市場。我認為ACT的做法是基於市場的，是正確的。

No.

不。

Okay. Great. Thank you so much for the time.

好的。偉大的。非常感謝您抽出時間。

Thanks, Jeff.

謝謝，傑夫。

Jeff Kauffman, Vertical Research. Partners.

傑夫考夫曼，垂直研究。夥伴。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Hey, good morning, everybody, and congratulations on a lights-out 2023. I guess I want to follow up on the last question a little bit first and then maybe talk about some of these these other new businesses or new focuses.

嘿，大家早安，祝賀 2023 年熄燈。我想我想先跟進最後一個問題，然後也許談談其中的一些其他新業務或新焦點。

So in terms of looking at the guide, I know we got to set the bar somewhere and so the ACT Research forecast has trailers come in down about 20% for the year. Now you had 44,000 trailers give or take this year on, but I would argue your production probably shouldn't come down in line with the industry because you were out about 10,000 trailers were at the capacity and dry and you were also out I don't know, 25 hundred trailers in capacity and reefer is you were switching that to the other facility. So in theory, as that capacity starts to come back, your production should not be down as much as the industry. So when I look at the implicit 2.2 to 2.4 billion in revenue that you are putting out there, I can do my own math, but it implies to me that you've got trailers coming down about 10% on the transportation solutions business. Is that a fair way to think about it? Or am I thinking about something wrong? And then how do you look at 24 and think about?

因此，就查看指南而言，我知道我們必須在某個地方設定標準，因此 ACT Research 預測今年預告片的收入將下降約 20%。現在今年你有 44,000 輛拖車，但我認為你的產量可能不應該與行業保持一致，因為你已經淘汰了大約 10,000 輛拖車，而且你也已經淘汰了，我不知道。不知道，2500 輛拖車的容量和冷藏箱是你將其轉移到其他設施。因此從理論上講，隨著產能開始恢復，您的產量不應像行業那樣下降那麼多。因此，當我看到你們公佈的 2.2 至 24 億隱含收入時，我可以自己算算，但這對我來說意味著運輸解決方案業務的拖車收入下降了約 10%。這是一個公平的思考方式嗎？還是我在想一些錯誤的事情？那你如何看待和思考24？

Okay.

好的。

Well, I got 10,000 trailer capacity units, a newly made that I'm going to bring back and they've got reefers are going to bring back. And how do you think about bringing that capacity back to the market?

好吧，我有 10,000 個拖車容量單位，是新製造的，我要帶回來，他們有冷藏箱要帶回來。您如何看待將這種產能帶回市場？

So yes, Jeff, I would say your I'd say the thesis you're presenting is we'll call it in the ballpark of correctness, but we absolutely are growing market share as we sit here today in 2024 as we keep our relative trailer production in line with our existing headquarters. And so we're able to do that, maintaining a price leading position in the market, which is a very nice place to be at the same time, bringing on we'll call it 10,000 units of thought capacity gain in the dry van business. And so we are doing the work today to build a backlog and a set of customer relationships that you can think about across the entire drive and manufacturing system, the ability of and taking that demand and we think the demand itself will allow will be there without being real strain on the pricing environment and 25, which is a big deal, right? So we're leading price we think there's going to be a market that allows that prices sustain maybe even grow a little bit and able to do it in an efficient way in 25 and so we see that cap capacity being able to be utilized very efficiently. And we want our manufacturing strategy here is not to run the business at 105 hundred and 15% on a straight time capacity. We want to run it at a much more efficient place going forward while maintaining a pricing environment that is most advantageous and meeting the strategic needs of those core customers that call Wabash home. So there's a lot of things going together there, but it sets up for 2020 sets up well for 2025 and beyond.

所以，是的，傑夫，我想說的是，你提出的論文我們將稱之為正確性，但當我們今天坐在這裡時，2024 年我們的市場份額絕對在增長，因為我們保持了我們的相對拖車生產與我們現有的總部一致。因此，我們能夠做到這一點，在市場上保持價格領先地位，這是一個非常好的地方，同時，在乾貨車業務中帶來我們稱之為 10,000 單位的思想能力增益。因此，我們今天正在做的工作是建立積壓訂單和一組客戶關係，您可以在整個驅動和製造系統中考慮這些關係，以及滿足該需求的能力，我們認為需求本身將允許存在，而無需定價環境面臨真正的壓力，25，這是一件大事，對嗎？因此，我們領先的價格，我們認為將會有一個市場，允許價格維持甚至可能增長一點，並且能夠在 25 年內以有效的方式做到這一點，因此我們看到上限產能能夠非常有效地利用。我們希望我們的製造策略不是以 10500零 15% 的連續產能運作業務。我們希望未來能夠以更有效率的方式運作它，同時維持最有利的定價環境，並滿足那些以 Wabash 為家的核心客戶的策略需求。因此，這裡有很多事情要一起進行，但它為 2020 年做好了準備，為 2025 年及以後做好了準備。

Okay.

好的。

And when do you think we start to see that push on the refrigerated on the trailer side with the new product?

您認為我們什麼時候開始看到新產品對拖車側冷藏的推動？

Great question.

很好的問題。

I think it's still materializing over the next 24 to 36 months. We are again adding additional capacity and that capacity seems to be being utilized Well, based off of the backlog, we see in 2024, which is going to pressure us to add additional capacity. But that capacity is we require some new manufacturing technology that's in the process of being developed so those two things have to go inside, but we are absolutely establishing more and more every day the value proposition for the pricing that we believe that that product deserves as long as that continues to go down.

我認為它仍將在未來 24 到 36 個月內實現。我們再次增加額外產能，而該產能似乎正在被利用，基於我們在 2024 年看到的積壓情況，這將迫使我們增加額外產能。但這種能力是我們需要一些正在開發的新製造技術，因此這兩件事必須納入內部，但我們絕對每天都在建立越來越多的定價價值主張，我們認為該產品值得作為只要這個數字繼續下降。

That path again will be pressure to add capacity and outgoing years industry reminders that just trailers seeing and truck bodies.

這條道路將再次面臨增加產能的壓力，而未來幾年產業提醒人們，只有拖車和卡車車身。

And we're seeing some growth in the truck body space. And we think there's other segments of truck body that e-commerce will play well and hope to bring to market soon.

我們看到卡車車身空間有所成長。我們認為電子商務將在卡車車身的其他領域發揮良好作用，並希望盡快推向市場。

And I know and I'm glad Mike said that because I'm going to ask about even looking internally at what we want to frame it as and it's really about cold chain technology scaling. It's not really about reefer vans per se. And to Mike's point, we're seeing opportunities that compete for capacity now in terms of total return to the business that makes for interesting capacity allocation discussions right. Okay.

我知道，我很高興麥克這麼說，因為我甚至會問，甚至在內部看看我們想要將其框架化，這實際上與冷鏈技術擴展有關。這與冷藏車本身無關。對於麥克來說，我們現在看到了在業務總回報方面爭奪容量的機會，這使得我們可以進行有趣的容量分配討論。好的。

And then one last one, if I can. So separate from the manufacturing business, you have the parts and service business, you brought on some partners to help push growth in that area, is that a business that you think should grow in a industry environment that may be taking a respite in 24 before it moves forward in 25?+ 26? Or is this more of a investment year in parts and service capability before we go back to higher industry volumes?

如果可以的話，然後是最後一張。因此，與製造業務分開，您擁有零件和服務業務，您引入了一些合作夥伴來幫助推動該領域的成長，您認為該業務應該在 24 年前可能會喘息的行業環境中成長。它在25 ?+ 26?內向前推進或者，在我們回到更高的產業產量之前，今年更像是對零件和服務能力的投資年？

Yes, not. We believe we can continue to grow with your staffing services.

是的，不是。我們相信，我們可以透過您的人力資源服務繼續成長。

And we we remain very confident in our Investor Day target of $300 million revenue by 2025 and that business. So we just finished it to 2021 to 2023. So that glide path to 300 or require us to grow in 2014 and grow again in 25. But we believe we've got it quite a bit of runway just to capture some market that really what is Wabash is rightful place to play in the industrial aftermarket space, and we're bringing that to bear in 2020 for which we believe we can why ways we can grow in an otherwise softer demand environment.

我們對 2025 年投資者日收入 3 億美元的目標以及該業務仍然充滿信心。所以我們剛完成了 2021 年到 2023 年的工作。因此，要下滑到 300 名，或要求我們在 2014 年實現成長，並在 25 年再次成長。但我們相信，我們已經擁有相當多的跑道，只是為了佔領一些市場，Wabash 確實在工業售後市場領域發揮著應有的作用，我們將在 2020 年實現這一點，我們相信我們可以做到這一點為什麼我們可以在需求疲軟的環境中實現成長。

It is just, I guess, Paramount to understand, Jeff, as we continue to grow in parts and services, we're not we're not doing it in the same old blocking and tackling way, right competing, I would say, to cope with equal capability. The way that we're attacking the market is really going after it the unserved areas quite underserved way, which allows us some some blue ocean capabilities to grow.

我想，最重要的是要理解，傑夫，隨著我們在零件和服務方面的不斷增長，我們不是以同樣的舊的阻止和解決方式來做這件事，我想說的是，正確的競爭應對同等能力。我們攻擊市場的方式實際上是在以服務水平相當低的方式追逐未服務的領域，這使我們能夠發展一些藍海能力。

And that's all on purpose and you need to jump into the pool of everyone else.

這都是故意的，你需要跳進其他人的池子裡。

We define a new floor.

我們定義一個新樓層。

So I will thank you for your insights and congratulations on a fantastic year.

因此，我要感謝您的見解，並祝賀您度過了美好的一年。

Thanks, Jeff.

謝謝，傑夫。

There are no further questions at this.

這沒有其他問題了。

Hi.

你好。

Well with our earlier.

和我們之前的一樣好。

Thanks, everybody, for joining us today.

謝謝大家今天加入我們。

Look forward to following up with you during the quarter.

期待在本季與您聯繫。

Concludes today's call. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。