Wabash National Corp (WNC) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day. My name is Rob, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Wabash Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Ryan Reed, Senior Director of Investor Relations and Corporate Development, you may begin your conference.

再會。我叫羅布，今天我將擔任你們的會議操作員。此時，我歡迎大家參加 Wabash 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。 （操作員指示） Ryan Reed，投資者關係和企業發展高級總監，您可以開始會議了。

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. We appreciate you joining us on this call. With me today are Brent Yeagy, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Mike Pettit, Chief Financial Officer. Before we get started, please note that this call is being recorded. I'd also like to point out that our earnings release, the slide presentation supplementing today's call, and any non-GAAP reconciliations are available at ir.onewabash.com. Please refer to our Slide 2 in our earnings deck for the company's safe harbor disclosure addressing forward-looking statements.

謝謝大家，大家早安。我們感謝您參加本次電話會議。今天與我在一起的有總裁兼執行長布倫特·耶吉 (Brent Yeagy)；和首席財務官邁克·佩蒂特。在我們開始之前，請注意此通話正在錄音。我還想指出，我們的收益發布、補充今天電話會議的幻燈片演示以及任何非 GAAP 調節表均可在 ir.onewabash.com 上獲取。請參閱我們損益表中的投影片 2，以了解該公司針對前瞻性聲明的安全港揭露。

I'll hand it off now to Brent.

我現在就把它交給布倫特。

Thank you, Ryan. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us today. I'm pleased to announce another quarter of strong financial results, which continue to demonstrate successful execution against our strategic vision. With the industry broad portfolio of First to Final Mile product solutions, and a growing parts and services offering that complements our transportation equipment group, we remain dedicated to elevating our value proposition even further for our partners.

謝謝你，瑞安。大家早安，感謝您今天加入我們。我很高興地宣布又一個季度的強勁財務業績，這繼續證明我們的戰略願景得到了成功執行。憑藉行業廣泛的從第一英里到最後一英里的產品解決方案組合，以及不斷增長的零件和服務產品來補充我們的運輸設備集團，我們將繼續致力於為我們的合作夥伴進一步提升我們的價值主張。

In addition to securing 2 pivotal agreements with strategic customers, we have also focused on adding value across our partner ecosystem by executing relational agreements with key suppliers like Hydro, Ryerson, and most recently, Rockland Flooring. Rockland is a long-standing supplier of wood flooring for trailers and their supply commitment will bolster Wabash's strategic positioning as we look to enhance demand planning within our dynamic industry.

除了與策略客戶達成 2 項關鍵協議外，我們還致力於透過與 Hydro、Ryerson 以及最近的 Rockland Flooring 等主要供應商簽署關係協議，在我們的合作夥伴生態系統中增加價值。 Rockland 是拖車木地板的長期供應商，他們的供應承諾將鞏固 Wabash 的策略定位，因為我們希望在充滿活力的行業中加強需求規劃。

Just as we continue in our pursuit of enhanced value creation within our Transportation Solutions business by redefining relationships with our evolving set of direct customers and key suppliers, we have similar strategic focus on amplifying our parts and services offering by working collaboratively with our best-in-class dealer network to provide differentiated offerings to make customers more efficient by leveraging our parts distribution capabilities as well as embracing the power of digital transformation.

正如我們透過重新定義與不斷發展的直接客戶和主要供應商的關係，繼續在運輸解決方案業務中追求更高的價值創造一樣，我們也有類似的戰略重點，即透過與我們最優秀的公司合作來擴大我們的零件和服務供應。一流的經銷商網絡，透過利用我們的零件分銷能力以及擁抱數位轉型的力量，提供差異化的產品，使客戶更加高效。

I'm excited to announce a significant expansion of our Wabash Parts Network and Trailers as a Service capabilities through a new joint venture with Fernweh Group. The collaboration is strategically aimed to enhancing our e-commerce and partner ecosystem.

我很高興地宣布，透過與 Fernweh 集團成立新的合資企業，我們的 Wabash 零件網路和拖車即服務能力將顯著擴展。此次合作的策略目的是增強我們的電子商務和合作夥伴生態系統。

Fernweh boasts a distinguished track record in scaling industrial tech, and we anticipated this JV will significantly accelerate our development and growth of an end-to-end digital platform that provides an industry-leading experience to our dealers, traditional and nontraditional suppliers of both parts and services, and a broad set of customers spanning the transportation, logistics and distribution landscape.

Fernweh 在擴展工業技術方面擁有卓越的記錄，我們預計該合資企業將顯著加速我們端到端數位平台的開發和成長，為我們的經銷商、傳統和非傳統零件供應商提供業界領先的體驗和服務，以及涵蓋運輸、物流和分銷領域的廣泛客戶。

Wabash is positioned as a central figure with an increasingly complex ecosystem of industry participants or innovation endeavors to address challenges within transportation, and we look forward to using our unique positioning to work closely with Fernweh to scale transformative projects that will help to enhance efficiency of logistics networks.

Wabash 被定位為一個由行業參與者組成的日益複雜的生態系統或解決運輸領域挑戰的創新努力的核心人物，我們期待利用我們獨特的定位與Fernweh 密切合作，擴大有助於提高物流效率的變革性項目網絡。

I'd also like to take a moment to thank our Board of Directors, whose active engagement and dose at oversight throughout the process of forming the strategic joint venture has been instrumental. As always, their collective experience, guidance and support has been pivotal to a long path of reinvigorated organic growth. If this joint venture appears to be a departure from a well-worn path for Wabash, I would respectfully encourage you to take a closer look at our most recent journey.

我還要花一點時間感謝我們的董事會，他們在整個策略合資企業組建過程中的積極參與和監督發揮了重要作用。一如既往，他們的集體經驗、指導和支持對於重振有機成長的漫長道路至關重要。如果這個合資企業似乎偏離了 Wabash 的老路，我會誠摯地鼓勵您仔細看看我們最近的旅程。

Over the past few years, our company has undergone a profound transformation. We've restructured, resegmented, rebranded, refinanced our debt and recapitalized our manufacturing operations. These sweeping changes have yielded substantial financial accomplishments that have come ahead of schedule. At our 2022 investor meeting, we unveiled a new set of long-term financial targets, which included an EPS goal of $3.50 per share by 2025, which at the time was viewed as an ambitious target.

在過去的幾年裡，我們公司發生了深刻的變化。我們對我們的債務進行了重組、重新劃分、品牌重塑、再融資並對我們的製造業務進行了資本重組。這些徹底的變革提前取得了巨大的財務成就。在 2022 年投資者會議上，我們公佈了一套新的長期財務目標，其中包括到 2025 年實現每股 3.50 美元的每股收益目標，這在當時被視為一個雄心勃勃的目標。

For those keeping score home, we have achieved $3.74 of EPS through the first 3 quarters of 2023, are in the process of setting a new bar for what peak earnings can look like for this company. And just as importantly, as demand conditions within van soften in 2024, we fully expect to put in our best trough performance as the power of our portfolio shines through with truck bodies, tank trailers and parts and services, all expected to continue posting strong financial performance.

對於那些堅持不懈的人來說，我們在 2023 年前 3 季實現了 3.74 美元的每股收益，正在為該公司的峰值收益設定新的標準。同樣重要的是，隨著2024 年廂型車的需求狀況疲軟，我們完全期望能夠實現最佳的低谷表現，因為我們的產品組合的力量在卡車車身、罐式拖車以及零部件和服務上大放異彩異彩，所有這些都預計將繼續保持強勁的財務狀況表現。

While I called this out in the past, I'd like to reiterate that the record earnings figure we will achieve in 2023 is being done so on unit volume that resides meaningfully below full factory utilization. Additionally, by the time we make our way back to the next market peak, we would expect our parts and service business to be in a margin-accretive piece of the portfolio.

雖然我過去曾指出過這一點，但我想重申，我們將在 2023 年實現創紀錄的獲利數字，而單位產量遠低於工廠的全部利用率。此外，當我們回到下一個市場高峰時，我們預計我們的零件和服務業務將成為投資組合中利潤成長的一部分。

Turning our attention to market conditions and backlog, shipment activity continued to outpace new orders in the third quarter, which is not surprising given the softening of demand conditions as freight rates pump along [the specific bottom]. Considering the challenging transportation market conditions that our customers have been contending with, it's also not surprising to see order activity shifting towards the later stages of the typical seasonality time frame.

將我們的注意力轉向市場狀況和積壓訂單，第三季的發貨活動繼續超過新訂單，考慮到隨著運費沿著[具體底部]上漲而導致需求狀況疲軟，這並不奇怪。考慮到我們的客戶一直在應對的運輸市場條件充滿挑戰，訂單活動轉向典型季節性時間框架的後期也就不足為奇了。

Ending Q3, our total backlog stood at $1.9 billion, while our 12-month backlog was $1.4 billion, and we do expect to achieve an uptick in order flow through Q4 with order season now underway. As industry participants have noted, every additional month that the freight market continues to languish, the stronger and more durable we expect the inevitable recovery to be. Over the long term, we maintain our belief that our core markets are benefiting from secular trends such as power-only, persistent driver shortages and resurgence of reshoring activity within North America.

截至第三季末，我們的總積壓金額為 19 億美元，而我們 12 個月的積壓金額為 14 億美元，隨著訂單季節的到來，我們確實預計第四季度的訂單流將有所增加。正如行業參與者所指出的那樣，貨運市場每持續低迷一個月，我們預計不可避免的復甦就會更加強勁和持久。從長遠來看，我們仍然相信我們的核心市場正受益於長期趨勢，例如純電力、持續的司機短缺以及北美地區回流活動的復甦。

Moving on to our financial outlook. With the first 3 quarters of EPS in 2023 outstripping meaningful year in the company's history, we again are pleased to raise the midpoint of our full year 2023 EPS guidance to $4.65 from $4.45.

繼續我們的財務前景。由於 2023 年前 3 季的每股盈餘超過了公司歷史上有意義的一年，我們很高興再次將 2023 年全年每股收益指引的中位數從 4.45 美元上調至 4.65 美元。

In closing, we are well prepared to execute in 2024. Wabash is as strong as it's ever been at this point in the freight cycle, with minimal leverage and the ability to continue our focused execution on our unique organic growth projects outlined on our strategic road map. We expect to navigate a reduction in dry van industry demand next year, but we will do so with recently proven capabilities and with the performance of other major facets of the business remaining strong in the coming year, that will allow us to accelerate as demand rebounds within the van segment during 2025.

最後，我們為 2024 年的執行做好了充分準備。Wabash 在貨運週期的這一點上一如既往地強大，槓桿率極低，並且有能力繼續專注於我們戰略道路上概述的獨特有機增長項目地圖。我們預計明年將應對乾貨車行業需求的減少，但我們將憑藉最近經過驗證的能力以及來年業務其他主要方面的表現保持強勁來做到這一點，這將使我們能夠隨著需求反彈而加速2025 年將進入廂型車細分市場。

We see 2024 as a point in time where we will expand and deepen relationships with our dealers, suppliers, and customers as well as interesting new players within the transportation, logistics, and distribution landscape. Yes, certain markets may pull back in 2024, but nothing is happening that will derail us from our purpose and our strategic mission. We are executing to the plan that improves our financial performance at all points in the cycle and facilitates opportunities for Wabash to continue to grow our level of value creation for all stakeholders.

我們認為 2024 年是一個時間點，我們將擴大和深化與經銷商、供應商和客戶以及運輸、物流和分銷領域有趣的新參與者的關係。是的，某些市場可能會在 2024 年回落，但任何事情都不會影響我們的目標和策略使命。我們正在執行的計劃旨在改善我們在周期中各個階段的財務業績，並為 Wabash 提供繼續提高為所有利益相關者創造價值的水平的機會。

With that, I'll hand it over to Mike for his comments.

這樣，我將把它交給麥克徵求他的意見。

Thanks, Brent. Beginning with a review of our quarterly financial results. In the third quarter, our consolidated revenue was $633 million. During the quarter, we shipped approximately 10,765 new trailers and 4,160 truck bodies. Given what we see in the market environment for vans, we made the decision to take some targeted downtime at our main reward facility. This accounted for new trailer shipments coming in slightly below what we might have expected 1 quarter ago. In doing this, we have maintained the vast majority of our full-time production employees in order to preserve our flexibility to respond to near-term demand changes.

謝謝，布倫特。首先回顧我們的季度財務表現。第三季度，我們的綜合收入為 6.33 億美元。本季度，我們運送了約 10,765 輛新拖車和 4,160 輛卡車車身。鑑於我們對貨車市場環境的觀察，我們決定對我們的主要獎勵設施進行一些有針對性的停機。這導致新拖車出貨量略低於我們第一季前的預期。在這個過程中，我們保留了絕大多數全職生產員工，以保持我們應對近期需求變化的靈活性。

Gross margin was 19.4% of sales during the quarter, while operating margin came in at 12.3%. These figures remain strong due to a combination of favorable factors, including material costs and mix benefits as truck bodies, tank trailers and parts and services remain bright spots in our portfolio. In the third quarter, we achieved strong operating EBITDA of $93 million or 14.8% of sales. Finally, for the quarter, net income attributable to common stockholders was $55.3 million or $1.16 per diluted share.

該季度毛利率佔銷售額的 19.4%，營業利潤率為 12.3%。由於有利因素的綜合作用，這些數字仍然強勁，包括材料成本和混合效益，因為卡車車身、罐式拖車以及零件和服務仍然是我們產品組合中的亮點。第三季度，我們實現了 9,300 萬美元的強勁營運 EBITDA，佔銷售額的 14.8%。最後，本季歸屬於普通股股東的淨利為 5,530 萬美元，即稀釋後每股收益 1.16 美元。

From a segment perspective, Transportation Solutions generated revenue of $583 million and operating income of $89 million. Parts and Services generated revenue of $56 million and operating income of $12.4 million. Our Parts & Service segment grew again in excess of 20% during the quarter, and our partnership with Fernweh Group increases our confidence in the future revenue potential for this business. Looking forward to next year, we expect parts and services to continue growing at a 20% clip.

從細分市場來看，運輸解決方案的收入為 5.83 億美元，營業收入為 8,900 萬美元。零件和服務產生了 5,600 萬美元的收入和 1,240 萬美元的營業收入。我們的零件和服務部門在本季再次成長超過 20%，我們與 Fernweh Group 的合作增強了我們對該業務未來收入潛力的信心。展望明年，我們預計零件和服務將繼續以 20% 的速度成長。

Year-to-date operating cash flow was $205 million, reflecting our strong financial performance. Even in the context of significant growth investment via capital expenditure of $30 million, the company generated $28 million of free cash flow during the quarter. Concerning our balance sheet, our liquidity, which comprises both cash and available borrowings, was $447 million as of September 30. We finished Q3 with a net debt leverage ratio of 0.8x. This is our lowest leverage ratio since 2017. And I'd also like to note that Wabash's debt rating was upgraded during the third quarter by S&P.

年初至今的營運現金流為 2.05 億美元，反映出我們強勁的財務表現。即使在透過 3,000 萬美元資本支出進行大幅成長投資的情況下，該公司在本季仍產生了 2,800 萬美元的自由現金流。就我們的資產負債表而言，截至 9 月 30 日，我們的流動性（包括現金和可用借款）為 4.47 億美元。第三季末，我們的淨債務槓桿率為 0.8 倍。這是我們自 2017 年以來的最低槓桿率。我還想指出的是，標準普爾在第三季上調了 Wabash 的債務評級。

Given the current interest rate environment, we are very pleased with our debt structure, which is simple, consisting of 1 issuance of $400 million in principal value and also cheap in today's environment with a rate of 4.5%. These notes mature in late 2028, and we currently see no reason for debt repayment to be part of our capital allocation priorities. On the topic of capital allocation, during the third quarter, we invested $29 million in capital projects and $1 million in revenue-generating assets for our Trailers as a Service platform. We utilized $18 million to repurchase shares and pay quarterly dividends of $3.8 million.

考慮到當前的利率環境，我們對我們的債務結構非常滿意，該結構很簡單，包括一次本金價值 4 億美元的發行，而且在當今環境下也很便宜，利率為 4.5%。這些票據將於 2028 年底到期，目前我們認為沒有理由將債務償還作為我們資本配置優先事項的一部分。在資本配置方面，第三季度，我們為拖車即服務平台投資了 2,900 萬美元的資本項目和 100 萬美元的創收資產。我們利用 1800 萬美元回購股票並支付 380 萬美元的季度股息。

Our capital allocation focus continues to prioritize capital expenditure above and beyond our annual CapEx maintenance spend of $20 million to $25 million in order to support our organic growth initiatives. We are committed to maintaining our dividend and then we anticipate continuing to evaluate opportunities for share repurchase alongside a bolt-on M&A.

我們的資本分配重點繼續優先考慮高於我們每年 2000 萬至 2500 萬美元資本支出維護支出的資本支出，以支持我們的有機增長計劃。我們致力於維持股息，然後我們預計將繼續評估股票回購和補強併購的機會。

Moving on to our outlook for 2023. Our financial outlook now contemplates revenue of approximately $2.6 billion, and we are increasing our outlook for EPS by $0.20 per share at the midpoint to $4.65 per share with a range of $4.60 to $4.70 per share. This compares to the previous EPS outlook midpoint of $4.45 per share.

接下來是我們對2023 年的展望。我們的財務展望目前預計收入約為26 億美元，我們將每股收益預期上調0.20 美元，中位數至每股4.65 美元，區間為每股4.60 美元至4.70 美元。相比之下，先前的 EPS 展望中位數為每股 4.45 美元。

We continue to expect $150 million of free cash flow during 2023 in a year where we have meaningfully recapitalized the manufacturing of our flagship dry van product line as well as providing additional capacity for future growth. We have also invested in important growth initiatives such as cold chain and recurring revenue. In our financial outlook, we expect fourth quarter earnings per year in the range of $0.86 per share to $0.96 per share. While we're still in the process of gathering all the necessary inputs to provide precise 2024 guidance, I'd like to share some insights that I hope are helpful in thinking about the outlook for next year.

我們繼續預計 2023 年的自由現金流將達到 1.5 億美元，這一年我們對旗艦乾貨車產品線的製造進行了有意義的資本重組，並為未來的成長提供了額外的產能。我們也投資了冷鏈和經常性收入等重要的成長措施。在我們的財務展望中，我們預計第四季度每股收益將在 0.86 美元至 0.96 美元之間。雖然我們仍在收集所有必要的資訊以提供準確的 2024 年指導，但我想分享一些見解，希望這些見解有助於思考明年的前景。

First, as Brent mentioned, the cadence of order season for vans this year is much more similar to the calendarization of many pre-COVID years. We were fortunate in 2020, 2021 and 2022 that demand conditions were exceedingly strong though as a further season forward in those years.

首先，正如布倫特所提到的，今年貨車訂單季節的節奏與新冠疫情之前的許多年的日曆更加相似。我們很幸運，在 2020 年、2021 年和 2022 年，需求狀況非常強勁，儘管這些年的季節又向前推進了一些。

2023 resemble something more usual from a historical perspective. Our negotiations with customers have been promoted, and we expect to actively close orders for 2024 during the fourth quarter. What we've seen so far aligns with industry forecasters and that demand seems poised for a modest pullback to a level that mostly consider mid-cycle territory. Now that commentary is specific to Vans.

從歷史角度來看，2023 年是較常見的一年。我們與客戶的談判已經推進，預計第四季將積極關閉2024年的訂單。到目前為止，我們所看到的情況與產業預測一致，需求似乎準備小幅回落至主要考慮週期中期區域的水平。現在這個評論是針對 Vans 的。

With regard to our other businesses, we expect to see continued strength within areas like truck bodies, tank trailers and parts and services. Together, these segments are poised to contribute significantly with the potential to generate around $200 million of gross profit in 2024. To be clear, that figure excludes the contribution from dry vans, and it alone surpasses our consolidated gross profit performance in years like 2020 and 2021, reflecting the robust potential within truck bodies, tank trailers and parts and services.

至於我們的其他業務，我們預計卡車車身、罐拖車以及零件和服務等領域將繼續保持強勁勢頭。這些細分市場將共同做出重大貢獻，有可能在2024 年產生約2 億美元的毛利。需要明確的是，這個數字不包括乾貨車的貢獻，僅此一項就超過了我們在2020 年和 2020 年等年份的綜合毛利表現。2021 年，反映了卡車車身、罐式拖車以及零件和服務的強勁潛力。

In conclusion, I'm thrilled to check off a meaningful long-term financial target, more than 2 years ahead of schedule. I'm also pleased to be able to raise our full year guidance again this year, but even more excited about what our 2023 financial performance signals for years to come.

總之，我很高興能夠比原計劃提前兩年多完成一項有意義的長期財務目標。我也很高興今年能夠再次提高我們的全年指引，但更令我興奮的是我們 2023 年的財務表現預示著未來幾年。

We have a very strong able team that has generated our record 2023 performance, and we believe we're still in the early innings of realizing the full capability of our remade company. Perhaps surprisingly, I'm also enthusiastic about our prospects for 2024.

我們擁有一支非常強大、能幹的團隊，創造了我們創紀錄的 2023 年業績，而且我們相信，我們仍處於實現重組公司全部能力的早期階段。也許令人驚訝的是，我對 2024 年的前景也充滿熱情。

For over 3 years, we've been exploring the potential of our First to Final Mile One Wabash plan, designed to transform the company's cyclicality. As we look ahead to 2024, we're poised to showcase the continued progress we've achieved in stabilizing Wabash's historical earnings volatility. Wabash occupies a competent position as an industry leader in transportation equipment, and is positioned at the epicenter of an increasingly complex ecosystem of participants within transportation, logistics and distribution.

三年多來，我們一直在探索「從第一英里到最後一英里 Wabash 計劃」的潛力，該計劃旨在改變公司的周期性。展望 2024 年，我們準備展示我們在穩定 Wabash 歷史獲利波動方面所取得的持續進展。 Wabash 作為運輸設備領域的行業領導者佔據主導地位，並處於運輸、物流和配送領域日益複雜的參與者生態系統的中心。

We are actively collaborating with Fernweh to bring value to this ecosystem by crafting a digital marketplace capability diverse stakeholders to address industry challenges. We firmly believe that this initiative will define the next chapter in our journey to change how the world reaches you. It's an exciting time, and we're eager to continue shaping the future of the industry alongside our partners and stakeholders.

我們正在與 Fernweh 積極合作，透過打造一個數位市場，讓不同的利害關係人能夠應對產業挑戰，從而為這個生態系統帶來價值。我們堅信，這項舉措將定義我們改變世界聯繫您的方式的旅程的下一個篇章。這是一個令人興奮的時刻，我們渴望與合作夥伴和利害關係人一起繼續塑造產業的未來。

I'll now turn the call back to the operator, who will open it up for questions.

現在我將把電話轉回給接線員，接線員將打開電話詢問問題。

(Operator Instructions) And your first question comes from the line of Justin Long from Stephens.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自史蒂芬斯的賈斯汀朗（Justin Long）。

So maybe to start, I was wondering if you could help us understand the positive impact you saw from material margin in the third quarter? And then as we move into fourth quarter and early next year, how you see that progressing?

因此，也許首先，我想知道您是否可以幫助我們了解您從第三季的物質利潤率中看到的正面影響？然後，當我們進入第四季和明年初時，您認為進展如何？

Yes. We did see some positive sourcing-related material cost impact in Q3, call it, non-commodity-related that some of that will continue into Q4, some will not. And that was a partial driver to our fee versus our original guide. So I would expect a little bit of a step down into Q4 in our material margin, which is embedded in our guidance, but not by a ton. So we would expect to maintain some of that were seeing benefits of the gap, you will see a little bit of a step down from the share margin perspective.

是的。我們確實在第三季度看到了一些與採購相關的材料成本的正面影響，稱之為非大宗商品相關的影響，其中一些將持續到第四季度，有些不會。與我們原來的指南相比，這是我們費用的部分驅動因素。因此，我預計我們的材料利潤率將在第四季度有所下降，這已包含在我們的指導中，但不會大幅下降。因此，我們預計會維持其中一些，因為看到了差距帶來的好處，從份額利潤率的角度來看，你會看到一點點下降。

Okay. And would you expect that to normalize in the first and second quarter next year? Or at what point will we get to kind of a more normalized manufacturing margin level?

好的。您預計這種情況會在明年第一季和第二季正常化嗎？或者我們什麼時候才能達到更標準化的製造利潤水準？

Yes, Q4 will be a, I would say, much closer to what we'd expect to see in 2024 from margin perspective. But we obviously still have a lot of work to do from a backlog so perspective before we can give any official guidance. So we didn't give guidance for 2024 yet. So I can't say that will be the exact margin profile, but Q4 will be closer to what we'd expect to see in a run rate level.

是的，我想說，從利潤率角度來看，第四季將更接近我們 2024 年的預期。但從積壓的角度來看，我們顯然還有很多工作要做，然後才能提供任何官方指導。所以我們還沒有給 2024 年的指導。因此，我不能說這將是確切的利潤狀況，但第四季度將更接近我們預期的運行率水平。

Okay. Understood. And maybe following up on what you just said, you gave some helpful puts and takes for 2024 and totally under, I appreciate that the macro environment makes forecasting challenging, but how are you thinking about the range of potential outcomes for the business in 2024? And maybe you could speak to how you're managing resources based on that range? I heard you say at 1 point, you took some targeted downtime at one of your facilities in the third quarter. But just curious if you could comment on the range for 2024, if you have any thoughts there and how you manage resources to that range?

好的。明白了。也許按照您剛才所說的，您對 2024 年提出了一些有用的觀點和觀點，我理解宏觀環境使預測具有挑戰性，但您如何看待 2024 年業務的潛在結果範圍？也許您可以談談您如何根據該範圍管理資源？我聽到您曾說過，您在第三季的其中一個設施進行了一些有針對性的停機。但只是好奇您是否可以對 2024 年的範圍發表評論，您對此有何想法以及如何管理該範圍的資源？

Yes. Absolutely. I'll start and then I'll let Brent maybe take the resource part of the other question. But we clearly believe that we're going to see some nice order inflow in Q4, which is not income that we -- in some of the prepared remarks, we mentioned that if you go to the pre-COVID days, seeing the majority of their backlog still going into year-end, and Q4 was not a normal thing. And we're getting back to that calendarization of order fill. We feel pretty good about what we can deliver in Q4 and going into in 2024.

是的。絕對地。我將開始，然後我會讓布倫特也許回答另一個問題的資源部分。但我們顯然相信，我們將在第四季度看到一些不錯的訂單流入，這不是我們的收入——在一些準備好的評論中，我們提到，如果你去到新冠疫情之前的日子，你會看到大多數他們的積壓工作仍在持續到年底，而第四季並不是一件正常的事情。我們又回到了訂單執行的日曆化。我們對第四季和 2024 年能夠交付的成果感到非常滿意。

And also, that's very much a driving specific comment. As I mentioned, we have a lot of other revenue streams that we feel are filling will provide a lot of support in 2024, and those are the parts in tank trailer and truck bodies we talked about. So it's a wide range, which is why we didn't give a formal guidance, but we would expect to see any reduction that happens from the trailer orders that you're seeing from ACT FTR, we would expect -- we would not see that big of a drop in revenue, for sure, based on some of the support we have in our other value streams, and we'll have a lot more color and context around what we'll see from dry vans at the year-end goal.

而且，這在很大程度上是一個具有推動力的具體評論。正如我所提到的，我們還有很多其他收入來源，我們認為這些收入來源將在 2024 年提供大量支持，這些就是我們談到的罐式拖車和卡車車身的零件。所以範圍很廣，這就是為什麼我們沒有給出正式指導，但我們預計會看到 ACT FTR 上的拖車訂單出現任何減少，我們預計 - 我們不會看到當然，基於我們在其他價值流中獲得的一些支持，收入將大幅下降，而且我們將在年底從乾貨車中看到更多的色彩和背景目標。

So Justin, when you think about it from just a -- I think you're primarily talking about hourly headcount, shift structure and so on. I think the way that we see it is that we got to look at Q3 and Q4 of 2023 to bridge the entire story.

所以賈斯汀，當你從一個角度思考時，我認為你主要是在談論每小時的人數、輪班結構等等。我認為我們的看法是，我們必須著眼於 2023 年第三季和第四季來銜接整個故事。

We specifically are managing this current period of time to position our overall headcount to support how we see the first half of 2024 playing out and making sure that we're in a great position to react to an increase in demand as we go into the tail end of '24 and absolutely into 2025.

我們正在具體管理當前這段時間，以調整我們的總體人員數量，以支持我們對 2024 年上半年的預期，並確保我們處於有利位置，能夠在進入尾聲時對需求的增長做出反應24 年底，絕對到2025 年。

So what does that actually mean? What that means is specifically for our dry van operation, we believe we can stay solidly on 2-shift operation throughout the year with the ability of using overtime to flex with this opportunistic changes in demand in the early part of the year and give us a nice solid baseline that we can grow and prepare for 2025 and the second half of the year. We think the market has the potential to be able to do that even sitting with the clarity issues we have today.

那麼這實際上意味著什麼呢？這對我們的乾貨車運營來說尤其意味著，我們相信我們可以全年堅定地保持兩班制運營，並能夠利用加班來應對今年年初需求的機會性變化，並為我們帶來我們可以為2025年和下半年做好成長和準備的良好堅實基線。我們認為，即使我們今天面臨的清晰度問題，市場也有潛力做到這一點。

To Mike's point on the rest of the business, specifically tanks, truck bodies and parts, we're actually in a position where we are maintaining, if not growing headcount in those aspects of the business in 2024 to meet the known market drivers and demand that we have on the table today. So we are still, what I would say, net-net, in a great position in terms of how do we think about having an active and robust resource management outlook going into 2024.

對於麥克關於其他業務的觀點，特別是坦克、卡車車身和零件，我們實際上處於這樣的位置：到2024 年，我們將維持這些業務方面的員工人數（如果不是增加的話），以滿足已知的市場驅動因素和需求這是我們今天討論的內容。因此，我想說的是，就我們如何考慮到 2024 年擁有積極且穩健的資源管理前景而言，我們仍然處於有利地位。

Your next question comes from the line of Mike Shlisky from D.A. Davidson.

你的下一個問題來自 D.A. 的 Mike Shlisky。戴維森。

Can we start off -- there's 1 topic you didn't mention for '24 and that was the reefer business. I know that it's a bit a transition at the moment. Can you update us on the transition to Minnesota for that business and how that might ramp up next year and/or 2025?

我們可以開始了嗎？您在 24 年有一個主題沒有提到，那就是冷藏業務。我知道現在有點過渡。您能否向我們介紹一下該業務向明尼蘇達州過渡的最新情況以及明年和/或 2025 年該業務將如何發展？

Yes. So when we think about our cold chain product lineup, we want to make sure we talk about it in the total lineup, not just on reefer vans. We're going to be in a nice place in 2024, where we think we can actually be additive in the total amount of cold chain revenue and overall product output in 2024. That's a combination of a relative amount of maintaining if not slightly growing on our EcoNex reefer van, but also pulling through additional parts and service revenue and we are now seeing an opportunity with EcoNex medium-duty truck bodies that we've been able to establish a foothold in, in 2023. That's an area of potential expansion for us in 2024.

是的。因此，當我們考慮我們的冷鏈產品陣容時，我們希望確保我們在整個陣容中談論它，而不僅僅是冷藏車。到 2024 年，我們將處於一個不錯的位置，我們認為我們實際上可以增加 2024 年冷鏈收入總量和整體產品產量。這是相對維持量（如果不是略有增長）的組合。我們的EcoNex 冷藏車，同時也帶來了額外的零件和服務收入，我們現在看到了EcoNex 中型卡車車身的機會，我們已經能夠在2023 年立足。這是一個潛在擴張的領域2024 年的我們。

Got it. And then just taking a step back on 2024. It sounds like you're already calling that trough. And I guess I'd like to know your confidence that, that '24 will, in fact, just be a single year downturn, a similar year trough. Is there anything about '25 should be thinking out about the regulations or just where you think of currently that makes you feel like it will just be a similar year?

知道了。然後退後一步，到 2024 年。聽起來你已經在說那個低谷了。我想我想知道您是否相信，24 年實際上只是一年的低迷，類似的一年低谷。關於 25 年，是否有什麼值得考慮的法規，或者您目前想到的哪些地方讓您覺得這會是相似的一年？

Yes. I think when you look -- I mean, first off, Mike, you know as well as I do, we saw yet to unfold what will happen in the world around us, both globally and domestically. So I can't speculate on what might happen. But what I will say is that if we can keep to; one, worst case; two, Fed rate changes. I think we're in a decent place for us to anticipate that overall freight has the ability of recovering to a degree that allows the strongest players in the industry to move forward with their growth we'll call aspirations and strategic direction in 2025. Those happen to be the customers we tend to do business with based on the backlog/customer portfolio, we create. We're in conversations with those customers to understand how they view 2025.

是的。我想當你看時——我的意思是，首先，麥克，你和我一樣清楚，我們還沒有看到我們周圍的世界將發生什麼，無論是全球還是國內。所以我無法推測可能會發生什麼。但我要說的是，如果我們能夠堅持下去；一、最壞的情況；二、聯準會利率變動。我認為我們現在處於一個不錯的位置，可以預期整體貨運有能力恢復到一定程度，從而使行業中最強大的參與者能夠繼續發展，我們將其稱為 2025 年的願望和戰略方向。碰巧是我們根據積壓/客戶組合創建的傾向於與之開展業務的客戶。我們正在與這些客戶進行對話，以了解他們如何看待 2025 年。

That's more important, less about how we view, it's more about how they view it. They view it as a 2025, I would say, definitely the tail end of 2024 should start to deal with give them the confidence to lean into 2025 as they look to gain market share, while everyone else is somewhat still really trough that we're in right now.

這更重要，不是我們如何看待，而是他們如何看待。我想說的是，他們將2025 年視為2025 年，絕對應該開始應對2024 年的尾聲，讓他們有信心進入2025 年，因為他們希望獲得市場份額，而其他人在某種程度上仍然處於低谷，我們正在現在。

So that's why Wabash is so pointed in preparing itself to be ready at the, call it, earliest notice to respond to that demand signal when it comes. We think that will actually come a little bit ahead of what the overall market will be signaling based off the customers that we do business with.

因此，這就是為什麼 Wabash 如此明確地準備好在最早的通知中做好準備，以便在需求訊號到來時對其做出回應。我們認為，這實際上會比整個市場根據與我們開展業務的客戶發出的信號提前一些。

Outstanding. Can I just squeeze 1 last one in here. Can you update us on the impact of the UAW strike on orders of your business. I guess, on the truck body side, has there been chassis supply issues they've been exacerbated over the last couple of weeks? And on the trailer side, are you getting a sense that some of the fleets are holding off on ordering because they're not sure if there will be excess capacity if there's no order of parts or components and orders themselves being shipped around the country?

傑出的。我可以把最後一個擠在這裡嗎？您能否向我們介紹 UAW 罷工對您企業訂單的影響？我想，在卡車車身方面，底盤供應問題是否在過去幾週加劇了？在拖車方面，您是否感覺到一些車隊正在推遲訂購，因為他們不確定如果沒有零件訂單以及訂單本身在全國範圍內運輸，是否會出現產能過剩？

Yes. I'll take the last part of the question first. I don't really believe yet. We are seeing a significant impact in any type of 2024 order behavior based off of what's going on with the current state of the UAW strike. I'm not -- quote them all, but I think there's a series of metrics out there, at least that I've been exposed to, to say that we haven't really even seen hitting the truly material impacts of the UAW strike in terms of real freight impact. We also know that it's not a what I'd call full strike yet. It's more of an iterative process that they're going through. .

是的。我先回答問題的最後一部分。我還不太相信。根據 UAW 罷工的現狀，我們發現 2024 年任何類型的訂單行為都會受到重大影響。我不是——全部引用，但我認為有一系列指標，至少我接觸過的指標，表明我們還沒有真正看到 UAW 罷工的真正實質影響就實際貨運影響而言。我們也知道，這還不是我所說的全面罷工。他們正在經歷的更多的是一個迭代過程。 。

So I don't think it's material yet in any decision-making. And I don't think it would be until we get into something into the first quarter or to last that long. And even then, it might be somewhat limited to the carriers at which it really does impact, okay. It's not a high item on that front from a risk management standpoint for Wabash's demand profile.

所以我認為這對任何決策來說都不重要。我認為直到我們進入第一季或持續那麼長時間之前才會發生這種情況。即便如此，它可能在某種程度上僅限於它真正影響的運營商，好吧。從風險管理的角度來看，對於 Wabash 的需求狀況來說，這並不是一個重要的專案。

When we think about it from a truck body standpoint, we've had a limited impact, and we probably will see what I would call limited incremental, is not the right word, sporadic impact in 2023. And that we're able to maneuver around then it's a nuisance, but I wouldn't call it a headache. If this were to get into 2024, so this is again a first quarter protracted were full, we'll see a larger amount of impact. But we've got enough lead time that good or bad because of the way they've done this with the incremental nature of how they're rolling this out, not taking them all to their needs right at the moment.

當我們從卡車車身的角度考慮時，我們所受到的影響是有限的，而且我們可能會在 2023 年看到我所說的有限增量（這個詞並不恰當）的零星影響。到那時，這會很麻煩，但我不會稱之為頭痛。如果進入 2024 年，那麼這又是一個漫長的第一季度，我們將看到更大的影響。但無論好壞，我們都有足夠的準備時間，因為他們的做法是漸進式的，而不是立即滿足他們的全部需求。

We have plenty of time to adjust in how we demand plan to fill the first half of the year to move away from the chassis pool, Big Three supply, call it, line of businesses, there's enough other out there, specifically during the first half of the year, but we're able to maneuver accordingly. So while it may operationally change how we do demand management. At this point, I would not see it being a material impact on the actual output of Wabash.

我們有足夠的時間來調整我們的需求計劃，以填補上半年的空缺，以擺脫底盤池、三巨頭供應，稱之為業務線，還有足夠的其他供應，特別是在上半年今年，但我們能夠採取相應的行動。因此，雖然它可能會在操作上改變我們進行需求管理的方式。目前，我認為這不會對 Wabash 的實際產出產生實質影響。

Yes. I think just to add, Brent mentioned in there, but just to double click on it. We do have a pretty significant percentage of our truck body build is medium duty and not dependent on the Detroit Three. So there's a lot of our mix that isn't impacted at all.

是的。我想只是添加，布倫特在那裡提到，但只需雙擊它。我們的卡車車身製造中確實有相當大比例是中型卡車，不依賴底特律三巨頭。所以我們的許多組合根本沒有受到影響。

Your next question comes from the line of Jeff Kauffman from Vertical Research Partners. .

您的下一個問題來自 Vertical Research Partners 的 Jeff Kauffman。 。

Congratulations. So I hear your message, which is respite in '24, you're seeing the numbers already. We're going to use that respite to make our business stronger. We're going to have a better bottom. You talked about the big announcement today in parts and service as well, and that will be bigger piece of the pie. So 2 questions here. Number one, you've ceded a little share over the last year because you took the factory down to do the transition for the dry vans, you move reefer up to Minnesota. So you're on track to do about 45,000 trailers this year, give or take. .

恭喜。所以我聽到了你的信息，這是 24 年的喘息，你已經看到了數字。我們將利用這一喘息機會使我們的業務更加強大。我們將會有一個更好的底部。您還談到了今天在零件和服務方面的重大公告，這將是更大的一塊蛋糕。所以這裡有兩個問題。第一，去年你放棄了一點份額，因為你拆除了工廠來進行乾貨車的過渡，你把冷藏車搬到了明尼蘇達州。所以今年你預計會製作大約 45,000 部預告片，不管怎樣。 。

So based on what you're saying, is it possible that even if the total trailer industry is down 15% or so next year, I don't know what the real number is going to be, that you could potentially still be making about 45,000 trailers as you ramp up reefer and you ramp up this new capacity and dry given some of your market opportunity? Or am I thinking about that wrong?

因此，根據你所說的，即使明年拖車行業總量下降 15% 左右，我也不知道真實的數字是多少，你可能仍然會做出這樣的預測。45,000 輛拖車，當你增加冷藏箱時，考慮到您的一些市場機會，您會增加這個新的容量和乾燥嗎？還是我想錯了？

Well, Jeff, as always, you ask very astute questions. What I would tell you is that I'm going to correct one thing now, the ramping up of our dry van manufacturing and the transition of reefers really has had no real impact on what I would call our literal market share as we think about '22, '23, what I would call any gross material way, that affects '24 at all, right? I know there's some math in between, but it really doesn't.

嗯，傑夫，一如既往，你提出了非常敏銳的問題。我要告訴你的是，我現在要糾正一件事，我們的乾貨車製造的增加和冷藏箱的轉型確實對我所說的我們的字面市場份額沒有產生真正的影響，因為我們認為“ 22、 '23，我稱之為任何影響'24的粗俗物質方式​​，對嗎？我知道兩者之間有一些數學問題，但事實並非如此。

When we think about market share in 2023, this is much more about a deliberate management decision to drive pricing to maintain pricing in the second half of the year based off of a level of demand in security that's been caused by the overall freight conditions. We felt as an organization, as the premium supplier into the market that maintaining pricing was paramount as we move into the order season for 2024. It also just happens to match the level of capacity smoothing that we needed to do to prepare for '24, and so there'd be no reason to chase pricing in order to run up against a hard stock and an inefficiency hit going into 2024. That would not be the smartest business is on the plan.

當我們考慮 2023 年的市場份額時，這更多的是一個深思熟慮的管理決策，根據整體貨運狀況引起的安全需求水平，推動定價以維持下半年的定價。我們認為，作為一個組織，作為市場上的優質供應商，隨著我們進入 2024 年的訂單季節，維持定價至關重要。它也恰好符合我們為 24 世紀做好準備所需的產能平滑水平，因此，沒有理由為了應對庫存困難和2024 年低效率的打擊而追逐定價。這並不是計劃中最明智的業務。

So when we think about market share in 2024, I think you're absolutely in the ballpark of the market share is inherently available for us as we adjust our pricing to still be premium in the market, still be at a much higher level than what we've seen over past cycles will be in a nice place that we can maintain plus or minus, probably in that range that you're alluding to with the capacity that we'll have on the ground starting 2024.

因此，當我們考慮 2024 年的市場份額時，我認為您絕對處於市場份額的大致範圍內，因為我們調整定價以使其在市場上仍然處於溢價，仍然處於比現有水平高得多的水平我們在過去的周期中看到，我們將處於一個可以維持正負的好位置，可能在您提到的從2024 年開始我們將擁有的產能範圍內。

Okay. And then just following up on that. And I want to follow Mike's question on, is '24 just a single backward year. And of course, none of us know. But I'm thinking about this big EPA mandate out there for the fleets in '27, which means you probably get a tractor pre-buy of some kind in '26, it may even start in '25, and we all know that unfortunately, in that situation, even if truck P&L is better, you may get a crowding out of capital for trailers maybe, maybe not, right, who knows.

好的。然後繼續跟進。我想跟進麥克的問題，「24 年只是倒退了一年」。當然，我們誰也不知道。但我正在考慮 27 年對車隊的這項重大 EPA 授權，這意味著您可能會在 26 年預購某種拖拉機，甚至可能在 25 年開始，我們都知道不幸的是，在這種情況下，即使卡車損益更好，你也可能會擠出拖車的資金，也許，也許不是，對吧，誰知道呢。

But I'm just thinking about the shape of industry demand for the next few years, '24, we're going to get a respite, '25, we probably still see a little bit of a respite in the early part of the year, then it starts to get better. But then we start running into this tractor buying requirement that a lot of customers are going to have. How do you think the shape of trailers -- I know it's anybody's guess, but I'm just curious, your point of view.

但我只是在考慮未來幾年的行業需求形狀，'24，我們將得到喘息的機會，'25，我們可能仍然會在今年年初看到一點喘息的機會，然後情況開始好轉。但隨後我們開始遇到許多客戶都會有的拖拉機購買要求。你如何看待拖車的形狀——我知道這是任何人的猜測，但我只是好奇你的觀點。

Yes. I think it's a more complicated question than what is the one generic shape of how the market will play out based on the factors that you've thrown out there. There's a potential for some level of prebuying marginally? Yes. Does it affect every fleet in the same way? No, it does not. Those customers, we say definitely. Those carriers and users of tractors and trailers about how much capital they can deploy may very well to fall into the category of what do I buy?

是的。我認為這是一個比市場將如何根據你所拋出的因素發揮作用的通用形狀更為複雜的問題。是否有可能進行一定程度的預購？是的。它是否以同樣的方式影響每個艦隊？不，不是的。我們一定會說那些客戶。那些關於他們可以部署多少資金的拖拉機和拖車的承運商和用戶很可能屬於我該買什麼的類別？

Wabash specifically doesn't market or sell to those customers that are in a capital position that have to actually make that level of, we'll call it, specific choice. We tend to sell to those customers that will have ample capital to be able to maintain a more balanced asset base.

Wabash 特別不會向那些擁有資本地位的客戶進行行銷或銷售，這些客戶必須真正做出我們稱之為特定選擇的水平。我們傾向於向那些擁有充足資本以維持更平衡的資產基礎的客戶出售產品。

And reminding everyone that we never -- the 300,000-plus trailers all said and done that were not bought from 2020 all the way through to 2023, and we called into that somewhat, but that's still going to be out there. Fleets are not going to be those that are well capitalized, well managed with a keen eye on operational costs are not going to want to get further behind on their trailers even with a pre-buy hanging out there. So when we syndicate to those customers, we're going to be, I think, somewhat buffered from any fact. And so when I think about the curve, I think that curve will be different based off of different segment in parts of the overall buying community.

並提醒大家，我們從來沒有——從 2020 年一直到 2023 年，我們都沒有購買過 30 萬多輛預告片，我們對此有所呼籲，但仍然會存在。車隊不會是那些資本充足、管理良好、對營運成本有敏銳關注的車隊，即使有預購，也不會希望拖車進度進一步落後。因此，當我們向這些客戶提供聯合服務時，我認為我們將在一定程度上免受任何事實的影響。因此，當我考慮這條曲線時，我認為曲線會根據整個購買社區的不同部分而有所不同。

One last question, if I can, this one for Mike. Mike, you mentioned that capital spending this year is going to be about $70 million or $80 million higher than what would be maintenance CapEx because some of these growth opportunities, which I think is great. It's great that you have that growth. So given your current slate of growth projects, how should we be thinking about the right amount of CapEx as I look out to '24 and '25 and just some of the projects that you have that you're spending on right now?

最後一個問題，如果可以的話，這個問題是問麥克的。麥克，您提到今年的資本支出將比維護資本支出高出約 7000 萬美元或 8000 萬美元，因為其中一些成長機會，我認為這是很好的。你有這樣的成長真是太好了。因此，考慮到您目前的成長項目清單，當我展望「24」和「25」以及您現在正在支出的一些項目時，我們應該如何考慮適當的資本支出金額？

Yes. It's difficult to say exactly what '24 will be because, as you know, we are doing a lot right now and kind of depending on some of the year-end spend that can change the '24 number somewhat. But I would expect to see '24 to be down 10% to 20% from what we saw in '23. '23 will be the high point of CapEx for the foreseeable future. But we have growth projects, highly accretive growth projects that we will have in '24 and '25 that will exceed what you may have seen historically from Wabash, but it won't be to the '23 levels.

是的。很難確切地說「24」會是什麼，因為如您所知，我們現在正在做很多事情，並且有點取決於一些年終支出，這些支出可能會在一定程度上改變「24」的數字。但我預計 24 年的銷量將比 23 年下降 10% 到 20%。在可預見的未來，23 年將是資本支出的最高點。但我們有成長項目，我們將在 24 年和 25 年擁有高度增值的成長項目，這些項目將超過您在 Wabash 歷史上看到的水平，但不會達到 23 年的水平。

Yes, growth is a good thing. I'm just curious how to think about the next 2 to 3 years of modeling since you do have these growth projects to spend on. That's helpful Congratulations, guys.

是的，成長是一件好事。我只是好奇如何思考未來 2 到 3 年的建模，因為你確實有這些成長項目需要花費。這很有幫助，恭喜你們。

And there are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back over to Ryan Reed for some closing remarks.

目前沒有其他問題。現在，我將把電話轉回給瑞安·里德（Ryan Reed），讓其發表一些結束語。

Thanks, Rob, and thanks, everyone, for joining us today. We look forward to following up during the quarter. Have a great day.

謝謝羅布，也謝謝大家今天加入我們。我們期待在本季度進行跟進。祝你有美好的一天。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。