美國廢棄物管理公司 (WM) 2019 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Waste Management Fourth Quarter Full Year 2019 Earnings Release Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

女士們，先生們，感謝您的支持，歡迎來到廢物管理公司 2019 年第四季度全年收益發布電話會議。（操作員說明）請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。（操作員說明）

It is now my pleasure to turn today's program over to Mr. Ed Egl, Director of Investor Relations. Sir, please go ahead.

現在我很高興將今天的節目轉交給投資者關係總監 Ed Egl 先生。先生，請繼續。

Thank you, Jay. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us for our fourth quarter 2019 earnings conference call. With me this morning are Jim Fish, President and Chief Executive Officer; John Morris, Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer; and Devina Rankin, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. You'll hear prepared comments from each of them today. Jim will cover high-level financials and provide a strategic update, John will cover an operating overview and Devina will cover the details of the financials.

謝謝你，傑伊。大家早上好，感謝您加入我們的 2019 年第四季度收益電話會議。今天早上和我在一起的是總裁兼首席執行官 Jim Fish；執行副總裁兼首席運營官 John Morris； Devina Rankin，高級副總裁兼首席財務官。您今天會聽到他們每個人準備好的評論。Jim 將介紹高級財務狀況並提供戰略更新，John 將介紹運營概覽，Devina 將介紹財務細節。

Before we get started, please note that we have filed a Form 8-K this morning that includes the earnings press release and is available on our website at www.wm.com. The Form 8-K, the press release and the schedules of the press release can include important information.

在我們開始之前，請注意我們今天早上已經提交了一份包含收益新聞稿的 8-K 表格，可以在我們的網站 www.wm.com 上找到。8-K 表格、新聞稿和新聞稿的時間表可以包含重要信息。

During the call, you will hear forward-looking statements, which are based on current expectations, projections or opinions about future periods. We'll also be providing our outlook for 2020. This outlook does not include the impact of our planned acquisition of Advanced Disposal Services, Inc., which we may also refer to as ADS. Once we complete this acquisition, we plan to provide an updated outlook.

在電話會議期間，您將聽到基於當前預期、預測或對未來時期的意見的前瞻性陳述。我們還將提供 2020 年的展望。此展望不包括我們計劃收購 Advanced Disposal Services, Inc. 的影響，我們也可以將其稱為 ADS。一旦我們完成此次收購，我們計劃提供更新的展望。

All such statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. Some of these risks and uncertainties are discussed in today's press release and in our filings with the SEC, including our most recent Form 10-K.

所有此類陳述均受風險和不確定因素的影響，這些風險和不確定因素可能導致實際結果出現重大差異。其中一些風險和不確定性在今天的新聞稿和我們提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中進行了討論，包括我們最近的 10-K 表格。

Jim and John will discuss our results in areas of yield and volume, which, unless otherwise stated, are more specifically references to internal revenue growth, or IRG, from yield or volume.

吉姆和約翰將討論我們在收益率和數量方面的結果，除非另有說明，否則更具體地指的是來自收益率或數量的內部收入增長或 IRG。

In addition, beginning in the fourth quarter of 2019, we updated our calculation of core price. With advancements in technology, we collect additional transactional customer-level data, which provides us improved clarity of the impact of our pricing activities. While this does not change the year-over-year core price performance results, the new measure reflects a more precise calculation in evaluation of our revenue change. Please refer to the press release tables where we have provided 2 years of quarterly core price data using the new methodology.

此外，從 2019 年第四季度開始，我們更新了核心價格的計算。隨著技術的進步，我們收集了額外的交易客戶級數據，這使我們更加清楚地了解定價活動的影響。雖然這不會改變同比核心價格表現結果，但新措施反映了對我們收入變化評估的更精確計算。請參閱我們使用新方法提供的 2 年季度核心價格數據的新聞稿表格。

During the call, Jim and Devina will discuss our earnings per diluted share, which they may refer to as EPS or earnings per share, and they'll also address operating EBITDA, which is income from operations before depreciation and amortization. Any comparisons, unless otherwise stated, will be with the fourth quarter of 2018. Net income, EPS, operating EBITDA margin, operating expense and SG&A expense results have been adjusted and projected 2020 measures are anticipated to be adjusted to enhance comparability by excluding certain items that management believes do not reflect our fundamental business performance or results of operations, including costs incurred in connection with the pending acquisition of ADS.

在電話會議中，Jim 和 Devina 將討論我們的攤薄後每股收益，他們可能將其稱為 EPS 或每股收益，他們還將討論運營 EBITDA，即折舊和攤銷前的運營收入。除非另有說明，否則任何比較都將與 2018 年第四季度進行。淨收入、每股收益、營業 EBITDA 利潤率、營業費用和 SG&A 費用結果已經調整，預計 2020 年的措施預計將進行調整，以通過排除管理層認為不能反映我們基本業務績效或經營結果的某些項目來增強可比性，包括與即將收購的 ADS 相關的費用。

In prior quarters, the adjustment for ADS included the reduction of common stock repurchases from planned levels. We are no longer adjusting for this. These adjusted measures, in addition to free cash flow, are non-GAAP measures. Please refer to the earnings press release and tables, which can be found on the company's website at www.wm.com for reconciliations to the most comparable GAAP measures and additional information about our use of non-GAAP measures and non-GAAP projections.

在前幾個季度，ADS 的調整包括從計划水平減少普通股回購。我們不再為此進行調整。這些調整後的措施，除了自由現金流之外，都是非 GAAP 措施。請參閱收益新聞稿和表格，它們可以在公司網站 www.wm.com 上找到，以了解與最具可比性的 GAAP 衡量指標的對賬以及有關我們使用非 GAAP 衡量指標和非 GAAP 預測的其他信息。

This call is being recorded and will be available 24 hours a day beginning approximately 1 p.m. Eastern Time today until 5 p.m. Eastern Time on February 27. To hear a replay of the call over the Internet, access the Waste Management website at www.wm.com. To hear a telephonic replay of the call, dial (855) 859-2056 and enter reservation code 9977058.

此通話正在錄音中，從下午 1 點左右開始每天 24 小時可用。東部時間今天至下午 5 點。東部時間 2 月 27 日。要通過互聯網收聽通話重播，請訪問 Waste Management 網站 www.wm.com。要收聽電話重播，請撥打 (855) 859-2056 並輸入預訂代碼 9977058。

Time-sensitive information provided during today's call, which is occurring on February 13, 2020, may no longer be accurate at the time of a replay. Any redistribution, retransmission or rebroadcast of this call in any form without the express written consent of Waste Management is prohibited.

今天的電話會議發生在 2020 年 2 月 13 日，其中提供的時間敏感信息在重播時可能不再準確。未經 Waste Management 明確書面同意，禁止以任何形式重新分發、轉發或轉播此電話。

Now I'll turn the call over to Waste Management's President and CEO, Jim Fish.

現在，我將把電話轉給 Waste Management 的總裁兼首席執行官 Jim Fish。

Thanks, Ed, and thank you all for joining us this morning.

謝謝，埃德，感謝大家今天早上加入我們。

We're proud of how Waste Management performed in 2019. We continued our focus on optimizing our traditional solid waste business, developing our people and investing in technology to better serve our customers, and we're confident these are the right focus points to deliver long-term growth for the company.

我們為 Waste Management 在 2019 年的表現感到自豪。我們繼續專注於優化我們的傳統固體廢物業務，培養我們的員工並投資於技術以更好地為我們的客戶服務，我們相信這些是為公司實現長期增長的正確重點。

The results are evident in our full year top line growth, which was 3.6%, despite a negative $318 million drag from commodity prices in our recycling line of business and a negative $23 million swing from the sale of renewable energy credits. Landfill pricing was one of the bright spots in 2019 and is also a great example of what the Waste Management organization can achieve when we have a shared focus. Together, the team achieved our best ever full year landfill MSW pricing in 2019 as we exceeded 3% MSW yield in every quarter, with each quarter surpassing the previous one, culminating in fourth quarter MSW yield of 4.5%. We expect to continue to drive improved MSW pricing for the foreseeable future as our price increases keep pace with the increasing costs at our landfills.

結果在我們的全年收入增長中顯而易見，為 3.6%，儘管我們回收業務的商品價格帶來了 3.18 億美元的負拖累，可再生能源信貸的銷售帶來了 2300 萬美元的負波動。垃圾填埋場定價是 2019 年的亮點之一，也是廢物管理組織在我們共同關注時可以實現的一個很好的例子。團隊一起在 2019 年實現了我們有史以來最好的全年垃圾填埋場 MSW 定價，因為我們每個季度的 MSW 產量都超過 3%，每個季度都超過前一個季度，最終第四季度的 MSW 產量達到 4.5%。我們希望在可預見的未來繼續推動改進 MSW 定價，因為我們的價格上漲與垃圾填埋場成本的上漲保持同步。

But we won't just focus on MSW pricing. We're pricing all our lines of business to ensure that we generate appropriate returns on invested capital, including our recycling and residential lines of business. John will share more about our 2020 plans for those 2 areas.

但我們不會只關注 MSW 定價。我們正在為我們所有的業務線定價，以確保我們的投資資本產生適當的回報，包括我們的回收和住宅業務線。約翰將分享更多關於我們在這兩個領域的 2020 年計劃。

The strong revenue growth that we generated in 2019 translated into robust operating EBITDA. Our collection and disposal business saw operating EBITDA grow by 8.5% and operating EBITDA margin expand by 70 basis points, both of which were better than we expected when we gave guidance at the beginning of the year.

我們在 2019 年產生的強勁收入增長轉化為強勁的運營 EBITDA。我們的收集和處置業務的營業 EBITDA 增長了 8.5%，營業 EBITDA 利潤率擴大了 70 個基點，這兩項都好於我們在年初給出指引時的預期。

In 2019, our overall operating EBITDA grew by 4% despite lower-than-expected market prices for recycled commodities and renewed -- renewable energy credits. We also produced $4.40 of EPS in 2019. We're forecasting another record year in operating EBITDA in 2020, with growth of 5.2% at the midpoint of our guidance range. We expect to achieve this growth from continued strong performance in our collection and disposal business through a combination of price, volume and cost controls.

2019 年，儘管回收商品和更新的可再生能源信貸的市場價格低於預期，但我們的整體運營 EBITDA 增長了 4%。我們還在 2019 年產生了 4.40 美元的每股收益。我們預測 2020 年的運營 EBITDA 將再創新高，增長 5.2%，處於我們指導範圍的中點。我們希望通過價格、數量和成本控制相結合，從我們的收集和處置業務的持續強勁表現中實現這一增長。

Last quarter, I spoke of the lack of visibility in our special waste pipeline as we were seeing hesitation from some industrial customers in committing to event work. I'm pleased to report that we're seeing more companies commit to event work so far in the first quarter, and concerns of a recession around the industrial economy have mostly abated.

上個季度，我談到了我們的特殊廢物管道缺乏可見性，因為我們看到一些工業客戶在承諾活動工作方面猶豫不決。我很高興地報告，第一季度到目前為止，我們看到更多的公司致力於活動工作，並且對工業經濟衰退的擔憂已基本減弱。

We've been awarded a large coal combustion residual remediation project starting this spring. With our well-positioned asset network and expertise, we have developed a strong reputation in managing all aspects of these clean closure projects. We expect that our differentiated service offerings will result in additional jobs throughout this year.

從今年春天開始，我們獲得了一項大型燃煤殘留物修復項目。憑藉我們定位良好的資產網絡和專業知識，我們在管理這些清潔關閉項目的各個方面建立了良好的聲譽。我們預計，我們提供的差異化服務將在今年全年帶來更多就業機會。

Turning to free cash flow. We've said operating EBITDA is the best reflection of the health of our business and provides the foundation for generating free cash flow. 2019 was no exception as our robust operating EBITDA once again translated into exceptional free cash flow. We allocated more than $1.1 billion of that free cash flow to shareholder returns, growing our dividend for the 16th consecutive year. We also spent $527 million on acquisitions, an indicator of the active M&A environment we're in and in our ability to complete transactions at targeted returns. Devina will discuss capital allocation in the year ahead, but suffice it to say, that we expect to continue to reward our shareholders in 2020 by allocating a substantial portion of our free cash flow back to shareholders.

轉向自由現金流。我們說過，經營 EBITDA 是我們業務健康狀況的最佳反映，並為產生自由現金流提供了基礎。2019 年也不例外，因為我們強勁的運營 EBITDA 再次轉化為出色的自由現金流。我們將超過 11 億美元的自由現金流分配給股東回報，連續第 16 年增加股息。我們還在收購上花費了 5.27 億美元，這表明我們所處的併購環境活躍，也表明我們有能力以目標回報完成交易。Devina 將討論來年的資本分配，但我只想說，我們預計將在 2020 年繼續通過將大部分自由現金流分配給股東來回報我們的股東。

On the M&A front, obviously, closing the Advanced Disposal acquisition is expected to be the highlight for the year. We are expected -- we are excited as we near the close of this transaction, and we have great confidence in the potential of the combined organization. We anticipate that we will obtain antitrust regulatory approval by the end of March and close soon thereafter.

在併購方面，顯然，完成 Advanced Disposal 收購預計將成為今年的亮點。我們被期待 - 我們在接近交易結束時感到興奮，我們對合併後組織的潛力充滿信心。我們預計我們將在 3 月底之前獲得反壟斷監管機構的批准，並在此後不久關閉。

We've received a high level of interest from other companies in acquiring any potential businesses we might be required to divest, and we expect to complete the sale of any required divestitures shortly after the closure of our purchase of ADS. Our integration team has been working hard preparing for this close, and the team is positioned to move quickly to integrate ADS operations and to achieve our targeted synergies.

我們已經收到其他公司對收購我們可能需要剝離的任何潛在業務的濃厚興趣，我們希望在我們購買 ADS 後不久完成任何所需剝離的出售。我們的整合團隊一直在努力為此次關閉做準備，該團隊已準備好迅速採取行動整合 ADS 運營並實現我們的目標協同效應。

Overall, the lead story at Waste Management and within the industry as a whole is one of consistency and predictability of earnings and cash flows, resulting in excellent returns to shareholders. Devina will go through our guidance in detail, but we expect that consistency to continue into 2020 where we see a highly efficient customer and employee-centric core engine driving a continuation of what we've seen for the past 3 to 4 years.

總體而言，Waste Management 和整個行業的主要故事之一是收益和現金流的一致性和可預測性，從而為股東帶來豐厚的回報。Devina 將詳細閱讀我們的指南，但我們預計這種一致性將持續到 2020 年，屆時我們將看到高效的以客戶和員工為中心的核心引擎推動我們在過去 3 到 4 年中看到的延續。

When you look at our annual financial results from 2017 to 2019 and now through our guidance for 2020, you'll see revenue growth in the 3% to 4% range, EBITDA growth in the 4% to 5.25% range and cash from operations less CapEx in the 5% to 12% range, all within the bands that we've communicated over the past 3 years.

當您查看我們 2017 年至 2019 年的年度財務業績以及現在通過我們對 2020 年的指導時，您會看到收入增長在 3% 到 4% 之間，EBITDA 增長在 4% 到 5.25% 之間，運營現金減少資本支出在 5% 到 12% 的範圍內，都在我們過去 3 年溝通的範圍內。

The amazing part about our results is that we have had some challenges in parts of our business like recycling and renewable energy sales, yet the core business continues to churn out earnings and cash at a strong pace. This industry and this company, in particular, have been a model of strong predictable results. With a very strong consumer segment of the economy and what appears to be a recovering industrial segment so far in the new year, we are confident that this rock-solid trend will continue.

我們業績的驚人之處在於，我們在回收和可再生能源銷售等部分業務中遇到了一些挑戰，但核心業務繼續以強勁的速度產生收益和現金。這個行業，尤其是這家公司，一直是可預測結果的典範。憑藉非常強勁的經濟消費領域和新的一年迄今為止似乎正在復甦的工業領域，我們相信這種堅如磐石的趨勢將繼續下去。

Lastly, I want to thank all of our hard-working team members who continue to make Waste Management both a great place to work and a fantastic long-term investment for our shareholders.

最後，我要感謝我們所有辛勤工作的團隊成員，他們繼續使 Waste Management 成為一個理想的工作場所，並為我們的股東提供了一項極好的長期投資。

With that, I'll turn the call over to John and Devina to discuss our results and our 2020 guidance in more detail.

有了這個，我將把電話轉給約翰和德維納，更詳細地討論我們的結果和我們的 2020 年指導。

Thanks, Jim, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝，吉姆，大家早上好。

We had a strong finish to 2019 and are pleased with our full year performance. Our disciplined pricing programs are delivering great results, which is best demonstrated by our 2019 MSW yield of 3.8%, which is 160 basis point improvement over 2018. We will continue to price our well-positioned landfills to generate an appropriate return on invested capital in a rising cost environment.

我們在 2019 年取得了不錯的成績，並對我們全年的表現感到滿意。我們嚴格的定價計劃正在取得巨大成果，我們 2019 年城市固體廢棄物收益率為 3.8% 就是最好的證明，比 2018 年提高了 160 個基點。我們將繼續為我們位置優越的垃圾填埋場定價，以在成本上升的環境中產生適當的投資資本回報。

More broadly, in the collection and disposal business, we've achieved 2019 yield of 2.8%, the highest yield that we've seen in a decade. As we look ahead to 2020, you will see our continued focus on pricing to overcome cost headwinds and to keep generating appropriate returns on invested capital.

更廣泛地說，在收集和處置業務中，我們在 2019 年實現了 2.8% 的收益率，這是我們十年來的最高收益率。展望 2020 年，您將看到我們將繼續關注定價，以克服成本逆風並繼續產生適當的投資資本回報。

What's impressive about these pricing results is that we were able to achieve this without compromising our volume results. We achieved 2.3% volume growth in 2019, which outpaced growth in the broader economy. However, as we expected, some, but not all volume growth, moderated in the fourth quarter both as a result of difficult comparisons to the fourth quarter of 2018 and the timing of special waste jobs.

這些定價結果令人印象深刻的是，我們能夠在不影響銷量結果的情況下實現這一目標。我們在 2019 年實現了 2.3% 的銷量增長，超過了整體經濟的增長速度。然而，正如我們預期的那樣，由於與 2018 年第四季度的困難比較以及特殊廢物工作的時機，第四季度部分（但不是全部）銷量增長放緩。

The good news in 2020 is shaping up to be another solid year for volume. As Jim mentioned, coal combustion residuals should be a benefit for us in 2020 as we've already been awarded a job to start in April and there are additional jobs in the pipeline. The strong consumer economy and special waste pipeline, combined with the positive trend in service increases exceeding service decreases, gives us confidence that we'll have another good volume year in 2020.

2020 年的好消息將成為銷量強勁的又一年。正如 Jim 提到的那樣，煤炭燃燒殘留物在 2020 年應該會給我們帶來好處，因為我們已經獲得了一份將於 4 月開始的工作，並且還有其他工作正在籌備中。強勁的消費經濟和特殊廢物管道，加上服務增長超過服務減少的積極趨勢，讓我們相信 2020 年我們將迎來又一個豐收年。

We plan to build upon our success in 2019, continuing to execute on our focused differentiation and continuous improvement strategies in the year ahead. The team is focused on opportunities to continue to improve and optimize our collection and disposal businesses. We plan to improve ROIC in our residential line of business and improve our overall operating costs with M100 focused on labor, technology helping you improve routing and maintenance service delivery optimization focused on repair and maintenance costs.

我們計劃在 2019 年取得成功的基礎上再接再厲，在來年繼續執行我們的重點差異化和持續改進戰略。該團隊專注於繼續改進和優化我們的收集和處置業務的機會。我們計劃通過專注於勞動力和技術的 M100 改善我們住宅業務的 ROIC 並改善我們的整體運營成本，幫助您改善路由和維護服務交付優化，重點關注維修和維護成本。

In our residential line of business, we have several initiatives underway aimed at improving profitability. This begins with the way we bid on municipal contracts. Waste Management has led the industry on return on invested capital, and we're bringing an even greater attention to this metric in 2020. We're taking a hard look at each residential contract as it comes up for renewal and making sure that our bid prices and terms of service are keeping pace with cost inflation over time and changing recycling dynamics. We're also leveraging the data we continue to aggregate via our onboard technology to improve routing and the efficiency of our drivers, which results in improved service and reduce costs. We expect to see similar results in the residential business that we achieved in the commercial line of business with these tools.

在我們的住宅業務中，我們正在進行多項旨在提高盈利能力的舉措。這始於我們投標市政合同的方式。廢物管理在投資資本回報率方面處於行業領先地位，我們將在 2020 年更加關注這一指標。我們正在認真審查每份住宅合同，因為它需要續簽，並確保我們的投標價格和服務條款與隨著時間的推移成本膨脹和不斷變化的回收動態保持同步。我們還利用我們通過車載技術不斷收集的數據來改善路線和司機的效率，從而改善服務並降低成本。我們希望在住宅業務中看到我們使用這些工具在商業業務領域取得的類似結果。

More broadly, in the collection business, we're improving efficiency and capturing savings through several efforts. First, M100 or managing 100% of our drivers' day, allows us visibility into our drivers' routes in real-time to coach for improved efficiency and an enhanced view of customer profitability. At our Investor Day last year, we said that a 1% increase in collection labor efficiency yields $25 million in savings and that we expect $75 million of total savings from M100 by 2021. We expect to capture the next $25 million of savings from M100 in 2020.

更廣泛地說，在收集業務中，我們正在通過多項努力提高效率並節省開支。首先，M100 或管理我們司機一天的 100%，使我們能夠實時了解我們的司機路線以進行指導，以提高效率並增強對客戶盈利能力的了解。在去年的投資者日，我們曾表示，收款勞動效率提高 1% 可節省 2500 萬美元，我們預計到 2021 年 M100 將節省 7500 萬美元。我們預計在 2020 年從 M100 中再節省 2500 萬美元。

The other effort that will benefit our collection line of business is our maintenance service delivery optimization or MSDO. We expect to continue to lower maintenance cost as we did in the second half of 2019. This leads to improved operational performance by bringing increased standardization to our fleet as well as improved maintenance processes. These are just a few examples of the great work underway to further optimize our collection operations with the help of technology.

另一項有利於我們收集業務的工作是我們的維護服務交付優化或 MSDO。我們預計將像 2019 年下半年那樣繼續降低維護成本。這通過為我們的機隊帶來更高的標準化以及改進的維護流程來提高運營績效。這些只是在技術的幫助下進一步優化我們的收集操作的偉大工作的幾個例子。

Turning to recycling. Our recycling business performed well in light of further fourth quarter erosion in recycled commodity prices. Despite a 43% year-over-year decline in our blended average commodity price to about $37, our fourth quarter EPS contribution from recycling was only lower by $0.02. For the full year, recycling commodity revenue declined $318 million, yet the business generated operating EBITDA comparable to 2018 as we were able to offset virtually all of the impact of commodity decline with an increase in fees. Our recycling performance demonstrates the success we are having in restructuring and recycling contracts to a fee-for-service model. We will also continue to make strides on improving our business through the use of technology. At our Chicago MRF of the Future, we expect to be fully operational by the second quarter. This plan is designed to be capable of generating high-quality material with technology through positive and intelligent sorting to generate the end product our customers require.

轉向回收。鑑於第四季度回收商品價格進一步下跌，我們的回收業務表現良好。儘管我們的混合平均商品價格同比下降 43% 至約 37 美元，但我們第四季度來自回收的 EPS 貢獻僅降低了 0.02 美元。全年，回收商品收入下降了 3.18 億美元，但該業務產生的運營 EBITDA 與 2018 年相當，因為我們能夠通過增加費用來抵消商品下降的幾乎所有影響。我們的回收績效證明了我們在重組和回收合同到按服務收費模式方面取得的成功。我們還將繼續通過使用技術在改善我們的業務方面取得長足進步。在我們未來的芝加哥 MRF，我們預計將在第二季度全面投入運營。該計劃旨在通過積極和智能的分類，通過技術產生高質量的材料，以產生我們客戶需要的最終產品。

Looking towards 2020, given the expected lower commodity price levels in the current environment, we expect a minimal impact on overall results from recycling, with headwinds in the first half of the year.

展望 2020 年，鑑於當前環境下大宗商品價格水平預計會走低，我們預計回收對整體業績的影響微乎其微，但上半年會遇到不利因素。

And finally, I want to give an update on all the work we're doing to prepare for the integration of Advanced Disposal. As Jim mentioned, we are approaching the close of the transaction and the start of the integration. We have developed detailed plans and are prepared to start integration as soon as we close. With the additional work that we have done since the third quarter, we are confident that we will be able to achieve synergies in excess of the $100 million we laid out when we announced the acquisition. We look forward to officially welcome the ADS team into the WM family.

最後，我想介紹一下我們為整合 Advanced Disposal 所做的所有工作的最新情況。正如吉姆所提到的，我們正在接近交易的結束和整合的開始。我們已經制定了詳細的計劃，並準備在我們關閉後立即開始整合。憑藉我們自第三季度以來所做的額外工作，我們相信我們將能夠實現超過我們在宣布收購時計劃的 1 億美元的協同效應。我們期待著正式歡迎 ADS 團隊加入 WM 大家庭。

And with that, I'll turn the call over to Devina to further discuss our financial results and 2020 outlook.

有了這個，我會把電話轉給 Devina 進一步討論我們的財務業績和 2020 年展望。

Thanks, John, and good morning.

謝謝，約翰，早上好。

Our 2019 performance showcased the strong conversion of operating EBITDA from our collection and disposal businesses to cash and also our disciplined execution on managing working capital. In the fourth quarter, our cash flow from operations exceeded $1 billion and grew more than 12%, and full year cash flow from operations was almost $3.9 billion, representing growth of almost 9%. As I mentioned earlier in 2019, with our robust collection and disposal volume growth, we plan to increase capital expenditures for the year above our initial guidance of $1.75 billion. With cash flow from operations growth that also exceeded our plan, we knew we were well positioned to proactively increase our capital expenditures and still deliver on our free cash flow objective.

我們 2019 年的業績展示了運營 EBITDA 從我們的收集和處置業務到現金的強勁轉換，以及我們在管理營運資金方面的嚴格執行。第四季度，我們的運營現金流超過 10 億美元，增長超過 12%，全年運營現金流接近 39 億美元，增長近 9%。正如我在 2019 年早些時候提到的那樣，隨著我們強勁的收集和處置量增長，我們計劃將今年的資本支出增加到 17.5 億美元的初始指導值之上。由於運營增長產生的現金流量也超出了我們的計劃，我們知道我們有能力主動增加資本支出並仍然實現我們的自由現金流量目標。

During the fourth quarter, we spent $286 million on capital expenditures; and for the full year, we spent $1.818 billion. Free cash flow in the fourth quarter was $756 million, and full year free cash flow was $2.105 billion. In 2019, the most significant contributor to our free cash flow growth was strong operating EBITDA. So we also realized benefits from working capital that we expect to reverse in 2020 and lower-than-expected cash taxes.

第四季度，我們在資本支出上花費了 2.86 億美元；全年，我們花費了 18.18 億美元。第四季度自由現金流為7.56億美元，全年自由現金流為21.05億美元。2019 年，我們自由現金流增長的最重要貢獻者是強勁的運營 EBITDA。因此，我們還意識到我們預計 2020 年將逆轉的營運資本和低於預期的現金稅帶來的好處。

In the fourth quarter, we used our free cash flow to pay $218 million in dividends. For the full year, we returned $1.12 billion to shareholders comprised of $876 million in dividends and $248 million in share repurchases. In 2019, our acquisitions totaled $527 million.

第四季度，我們使用自由現金流支付了 2.18 億美元的股息。全年，我們向股東返還了 11.2 億美元，其中包括 8.76 億美元的股息和 2.48 億美元的股票回購。2019 年，我們的收購總額為 5.27 億美元。

Our SG&A costs as a percentage of revenue were 10.3% for the full year, which was about 25 basis points higher than what we planned. This difference is largely due to litigation and incentive compensation costs that were higher than expected. We remain committed to a long-term target of SG&A as a percentage of revenue of about 10%. In 2019, we were effective in managing our baseline costs while very intentionally investing in technology and our people. The investments we made in 2019 and will continue to make in 2020 support our customer and growth objectives as well as a number of the operational improvements that John discussed.

我們全年的 SG&A 成本佔收入的百分比為 10.3%，比我們的計劃高出約 25 個基點。這種差異主要是由於訴訟和激勵補償成本高於預期。我們仍然致力於實現 SG&A 佔收入 10% 左右的長期目標。2019 年，我們有效地管理了我們的基準成本，同時非常有意識地投資於技術和我們的人員。我們在 2019 年進行的投資並將在 2020 年繼續進行，以支持我們的客戶和增長目標以及約翰討論的一些運營改進。

Late in 2019, we determined it was prudent to make an investment in our foundational finance and human resources systems. These systems serve as a platform for almost everything we do, and we have not upgraded this platform in almost 20 years. In the fourth quarter, our team started this multiyear effort. You will notice that we adjusted for these costs in our press release, and we will continue to adjust for the costs associated with this investment in the year ahead.

2019 年底，我們確定對我們的基礎財務和人力資源系統進行投資是謹慎的做法。這些系統作為我們所做的幾乎所有事情的平台，我們已經將近 20 年沒有升級這個平台了。在第四季度，我們的團隊開始了這項多年的努力。您會注意到我們在新聞稿中針對這些成本進行了調整，我們將在來年繼續針對與此投資相關的成本進行調整。

Our adjusted effective tax rate was 16.3% for the fourth quarter of 2019 and 20.2% for the full year. Our effective tax rate was lower in 2019 than we expected because we realized value from the fuel tax credits, we made an incremental investment in low income housing and we recognized some favorable adjustments when we finalized our tax returns for the prior year.

我們調整後的有效稅率在 2019 年第四季度為 16.3%，全年為 20.2%。我們 2019 年的有效稅率低於我們的預期，因為我們從燃油稅抵免中實現了價值，我們對低收入住房進行了增量投資，並且在我們完成上一年的納稅申報表時確認了一些有利的調整。

Our debt-to-EBITDA ratio measured based on our bank covenants was about 3.1x at the end of the year. While this measure is trending higher as we approach the ADS closing, it is within our targeted levels and positions us well to continue to execute upon our long-term capital allocation priorities of growing the business and returning cash to our shareholders.

我們根據銀行契約衡量的債務與 EBITDA 比率在年底約為 3.1 倍。雖然隨著我們接近美國存託憑證的關閉，這一指標呈上升趨勢，但它在我們的目標水平之內，並使我們能夠很好地繼續執行我們的長期資本分配優先事項，即發展業務和向股東返還現金。

Moving to our 2020 outlook. As a reminder, our revenue, earnings and cash flow guidance does not include the anticipated impacts of acquiring ADS. However, it is important to note that our free cash flow guidance does include an initial estimate of the incremental interest costs we will incur for the debt raised to fund the transaction. We plan to update the remaining components of our outlook, including taxes and EPS, following the close of the acquisition.

轉向我們的 2020 年展望。提醒一下，我們的收入、收益和現金流量指南不包括收購 ADS 的預期影響。但是，需要注意的是，我們的自由現金流量指南確實包括對我們為為交易提供資金而籌集的債務所產生的增量利息成本的初步估計。我們計劃在收購結束後更新我們展望的其餘部分，包括稅收和每股收益。

On a stand-alone basis, we expect 2020 operating EBITDA to increase to $4.56 billion to $4.66 billion, growing by 5.2% at the midpoint, fueled by continued strong organic revenue growth. To that end, we expect core price of 4% or greater, yields of about 2.5% in collection and disposal, and total company volume growth of approximately 1.5%. We expect our strong earnings growth to drive free cash flow of between $2.15 billion and $2.25 billion.

在獨立的基礎上，我們預計 2020 年運營 EBITDA 將增加到 45.6 億美元至 46.6 億美元，在持續強勁的有機收入增長的推動下，中點增長 5.2%。為此，我們預計核心價格為 4% 或更高，收集和處置的收益率約為 2.5%，公司總銷量增長約為 1.5%。我們預計強勁的盈利增長將推動自由現金流達到 21.5 億美元至 22.5 億美元。

We project capital expenditures to be between $1.7 billion and $1.8 billion in the year ahead, which is a decrease in total spending from 2019, so at or above our long-term capital spend as a percentage of revenue target. We have seen our capital investments pay off, and so we plan to continue to invest above our long-term average in 2020 with our focuses in the year ahead on landfills where volume growth is expected to remain strong and facility upgrades.

我們預計來年的資本支出將在 17 億美元至 18 億美元之間，這比 2019 年的總支出有所減少，因此達到或高於我們的長期資本支出佔收入目標的百分比。我們已經看到我們的資本投資得到回報，因此我們計劃在 2020 年繼續進行高於長期平均水平的投資，並在未來一年重點關注垃圾填埋場，預計垃圾填埋場的產量增長將保持強勁，並進行設施升級。

We remain committed to a capital allocation plan that maximizes long-term value and total shareholder return by prioritizing organic and acquisition-related growth, dividends and share repurchases. Given our focus on the integration of ADS, we expect tuck-in acquisition spending in 2020 to be lower than what we have seen in the last few years and more in line with our historical target of $100 million to $200 million annually.

我們仍然致力於通過優先考慮有機和收購相關增長、股息和股票回購來實現長期價值和股東總回報最大化的資本配置計劃。鑑於我們專注於 ADS 的整合，我們預計 2020 年的收購支出將低於過去幾年的水平，更符合我們每年 1 億至 2 億美元的歷史目標。

We are pleased to be increasing our planned quarterly dividend rate for the 17th consecutive year, as announced in December, and expect our dividend payments to be about $920 million in 2020. Given this, we currently project that excess free cash flow will be at least $1 billion in 2020.

正如去年 12 月宣布的那樣，我們很高興連續第 17 年提高計劃的季度股息率，並預計到 2020 年我們的股息支付額約為 9.2 億美元。鑑於此，我們目前預計到 2020 年超額自由現金流將至少達到 10 億美元。

We have prudently slowed our share repurchase activity in anticipation of the Advanced Disposal acquisition. With those steps and our robust growth, our balance sheet is strong, and we are well positioned to restart our share buyback program.

我們已謹慎地放慢了我們的股票回購活動，以期提前處置收購。憑藉這些步驟和我們強勁的增長，我們的資產負債表穩健，我們有能力重啟我們的股票回購計劃。

We plan to begin repurchasing shares in the first quarter and expect to allocate at least $1 billion to repurchasing our stock over the course of the year.

我們計劃在第一季度開始回購股票，並預計在這一年中分配至少 10 億美元用於回購我們的股票。

In summary, 2019 was a successful year for Waste Management, and we can't thank the Waste Management team enough for all their hard work. 2020 is set up to be an outstanding year as we focus on execution, both on the fundamental strength and growth of our business and on the ADS integration.

總而言之，2019 年是 Waste Management 成功的一年，我們對 Waste Management 團隊的辛勤工作感激不盡。2020 年將是傑出的一年，因為我們專注於執行，既關注我們業務的基本實力和增長，也關注 ADS 整合。

With that, Jay, let's open the line for questions.

有了這個，Jay，讓我們打開問題熱線。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Brian Maguire of Goldman Sachs.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自高盛的 Brian Maguire。

First question just on the -- just some updated color on the ADS transaction. And initially, there was some enthusiasm it might be done a little bit sooner, seems like it's maybe taking just a little bit longer. Just wondering if you could comment on how the conversations are going and the remedy package or divestment package, what kind of reception you're getting in the market for that. And whether you think that might go to one person or maybe now we're in a situation where we're going to be talking about multiple buyers for that?

第一個問題只是關於 ADS 交易的一些更新顏色。最初，有一些熱情可能會更快地完成，看起來可能只需要更長的時間。只是想知道您是否可以評論對話的進展情況以及補救方案或撤資方案，您在市場上獲得了什麼樣的接待。您是否認為這可能會針對一個人，或者現在我們是否處於我們要為此談論多個買家的情況？

So Brian, what I would tell you is, is that we announced the deal on April 14. So we're just come -- we're not even at a year mark yet. And as Jim mentioned in his prepared comments, we're on a trajectory, we think, to get clearance from DOJ right towards the end of the quarter. And obviously, we're going to move to close quickly after that.

所以布賴恩，我要告訴你的是，我們在 4 月 14 日宣布了這筆交易。所以我們才剛剛到來——我們甚至還不到一年的時間。正如吉姆在他準備好的評論中提到的那樣，我們認為，我們正處於軌道上，以便在本季度末獲得美國司法部的許可。顯然，我們將在那之後迅速關閉。

In terms of the divestiture package, what I can tell you is, is that we've had a really robust lineup of suitors, kind of I said it's kind of like a line around the block of folks who are interested in these assets. So as we progressed with our conversations with the Justice Department, we've obviously continued to move that process along at the same pace.

就剝離方案而言，我可以告訴你的是，我們有一個非常強大的追求者陣容，我說這有點像對這些資產感興趣的人群周圍的一條線。因此，隨著我們與司法部的對話取得進展，我們顯然繼續以同樣的速度推進這一進程。

Okay. And I just wanted to ask about your comments on the residential line of business. Jim and John, I think you guys both talked about how that's a focus area for 2020. As some of these larger, longer-term contracts come up for renewal, I guess, the volumes have been a little bit light in that part of the business. I'm wondering if you could just kind of comment on where you see margins in that business today versus where they've been historically and what actions you're thinking about taking in 2020 to try and improve those margins.

好的。我只是想問一下您對住宅業務的看法。吉姆和約翰，我想你們都談到了這是 2020 年的重點領域。我想，由於其中一些更大、更長期的合同需要續簽，這部分業務的數量有點少。我想知道你是否可以評論一下你今天在該業務中看到的利潤率與歷史上的利潤率，以及你正在考慮在 2020 年採取哪些行動來嘗試提高這些利潤率。

Sure, Brian. I think first and foremost, obviously, the recycling business has had a kind of knock-on effect on residential. And in my comments, you heard me talk about that, making sure that our pricing models keep up with what the cost inflation we're seeing in the residential line of business, that we're getting the appropriate returns for the capital that we're deploying there. And I would tell you that it's obviously the lowest of the 3 collection lines. So when we look at where we're going to direct our investments, we're going to look to move those margins up here over the next handful of years.

當然，布賴恩。我認為首先，顯然，回收業務對住宅產生了連鎖反應。在我的評論中，你聽到我談到了這一點，確保我們的定價模型跟上我們在住宅業務中看到的成本通脹，我們正在為我們的資本獲得適當的回報。在那裡重新部署。我會告訴你，它顯然是 3 個系列中最低的。因此，當我們審視我們將在哪裡進行投資時，我們將在未來幾年內將這些利潤率提高到這裡。

Okay. And just last one for me. I apologize if I missed it, but did you guys quantify the impact to EBITDA either from the CNG or the fuel tax credit in 4Q and kind of what's embedded in the 2020 guidance for EBITDA?

好的。最後一個給我。如果我錯過了，我深表歉意，但是你們是否量化了第四季度 CNG 或燃油稅抵免對 EBITDA 的影響以及 2020 年 EBITDA 指南中嵌入的內容？

Sure. I'll cover both the EBITDA impact and the cash flow impact. So the fuel tax credit, which was recognized as a reduction to operating expenses, was about $70 million in the year, and we project that it'll be a little below $40 million in the year ahead. From a cash flow perspective, there were no cash flow benefits associated with that. That's one of the working capital headwinds that we -- that I mentioned for 2020 are actually -- it created a headwind in working capital for us this year because we recognize the earnings, and we'll recognize the free cash flow benefits in the year ahead. Those free cash flow benefits for both what we recognized in the P&L this year and expect to recognize in the P&L next year are a total of about $90 million.

當然。我將涵蓋 EBITDA 影響和現金流影響。因此，被認為是減少運營費用的燃油稅抵免額在這一年約為 7000 萬美元，我們預計明年將略低於 4000 萬美元。從現金流的角度來看，沒有與之相關的現金流收益。這是我們——我提到的 2020 年實際上是——的營運資本逆風之一——它今年給我們帶來了營運資本的逆風，因為我們認識到收益，我們將認識到當年的自由現金流收益先。我們今年在損益表中確認的以及預計明年在損益表中確認的自由現金流收益總計約為 9000 萬美元。

Okay. And just to be clear, this -- the $70 million that was all in 4Q, right, because it just occurred late in the year, right?

好的。需要明確的是，這 7000 萬美元都在第四季度，對吧，因為它剛剛發生在今年年底，對吧？

That's right.

這是正確的。

Yes.

是的。

Yes. So Brian, Jim here. Just to level-set on EBITDA a little bit here for Q4 and for 2019. We had quite a few puts and takes in Q4 that rolled into the final number. And by the way, that's not that uncommon for the fourth quarter. But some of those puts and takes would have been in your estimates, and several would not have been. So obviously, the fuel tax credits that you just talked about, on the positive side, the RINs pricing, recycling, all of that would have been in your numbers, we've talked about a lot of that.

是的。布萊恩，吉姆在這兒。只是為了對第四季度和 2019 年的 EBITDA 進行一些調整。我們在第四季度進行了相當多的投入和投入，最終得出了結果。順便說一句，這在第四季度並不少見。但是其中一些賣出和賣出會在你的估計中，而有一些則不會。很明顯，你剛才談到的燃油稅抵免，從積極的方面來說，RINs 定價、回收，所有這些都會在你的數字中，我們已經談了很多。

But we also had a material true-up of our 2021 LTI plan from stronger-than-expected total shareholder return on free cash flow, and we had somewhat of a clearing of the decks of legal settlements. And the total of those 2 was almost $40 million for the quarter, and that would not have been in your estimates. You wouldn't have known about that. It was included in our adjusted EBITDA. So we included those. So just wanted to level set that there are some things in Q4, moving parts that we tend to have in many Q4s, but some of them were not in -- would not have been in your estimates, you wouldn't have known about those, and that amount was approaching $40 million.

但我們也對 2021 年 LTI 計劃進行了實質性調整，因為自由現金流的股東總回報率強於預期，並且我們在某種程度上清理了法律和解的障礙。這 2 個季度的總額接近 4000 萬美元，這不在您的估計之內。你不會知道的。它包含在我們調整後的 EBITDA 中。所以我們包括了那些。所以只是想確定第 4 季度有一些東西，我們在許多第 4 季度中往往會有的移動部件，但其中一些不在 - 不會在你的估計中，你不會知道那些，這一數額接近 4000 萬美元。

So the good news, though, is that, really, the underlying business, which I talked about in my remarks, the underlying business is super solid. It didn't waver. It was strong last year, and it's going to be strong in 2020.

因此，好消息是，我在發言中談到的基礎業務真的非常穩固。它沒有動搖。去年很強勁，2020年也會很強勁。

Next question comes from the line of Kyle White from Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Kyle White。

Just focusing in on volumes, down 40 basis points this quarter. It was a little bit lighter than I expected, considering you guys are trending well above 2% for the year. Just curious what kind of caused this inflection this quarter and if there's anything notable. And then how it performed relative to your expectations going into the quarter?

只關註銷量，本季度下降了 40 個基點。考慮到你們今年的趨勢遠高於 2%，這比我預期的要輕一些。只是好奇是什麼導致了本季度的這種變化，以及是否有任何值得注意的地方。然後它相對於您進入本季度的預期表現如何？

Sure, Kyle. Let me give you a little bit of color on Q4 and then some insight into volumes for early Q1 and for 2020 as a whole. First of all, in Q4, our volume figure was indicative of a couple of things. First, we knew we had the tough comps year-over-year due to the fire in Northern California, and that will continue through the first half of 2020. Secondly there, we had a onetime settlement with the city of Los Angeles contract in our numbers in Q4 of '18, and that impacted volume or at least it impacted the comparability on a year-over-year basis. Without that, in 2018, commercial would have been 2.1% positive instead of 1.5%. And then the third thing for Q4 that's worth mentioning is that we saw a $22 million decline in our renewable energy and Energy Services businesses, and that hits the volume line. So that gives you some insight into Q4.

當然，凱爾。讓我給你一些關於第四季度的顏色，然後對第一季度初和整個 2020 年的銷量進行一些深入的了解。首先，在第 4 季度，我們的交易量數字表明了幾件事。首先，我們知道由於北加州的大火，我們的收入逐年下降，而且這種情況將持續到 2020 年上半年。其次，我們在 18 年第四季度的數據中與洛杉磯市的合同達成了一次性和解，這影響了數量，或者至少影響了同比可比性。否則，在 2018 年，商業廣告的增長率將為 2.1%，而不是 1.5%。然後，第四季度值得一提的第三件事是，我們的可再生能源和能源服務業務減少了 2200 萬美元，這達到了銷量線。所以這讓你對第四季度有了一些了解。

Here's the positive on January 1. January has come out of the gates nicely. So even with tough comps largely from the anniversary of the New York City contract, commercial volume was a healthy 3.6%, roll off was positive 2.8%, resi was down 1.3%. John's talked about that. I mean he and the ops teams are looking to fix the margins in that business. So it's not surprising that it's down a little bit. And then landfill and transfers -- tons were up 1% and 4.7%, respectively. So that's January.

這是 1 月 1 日的積極因素。1 月已經很好地走出了大門。因此，即使在很大程度上來自紐約市合同周年紀念日的艱難補償下，商業量仍保持健康的 3.6%，下降為正 2.8%，resi 下降 1.3%。約翰談到了這一點。我的意思是他和運營團隊正在尋求修復該業務的利潤率。因此，它有所下降也就不足為奇了。然後是垃圾填埋場和轉運——噸數分別增長了 1% 和 4.7%。那是一月份。

And then looking past January as we will -- we talked about it, but we've got that large coal combustion residual remediation project and we have a big national account, both of those will start in early Q2. So even with the tough comps from the Northern California fires and New York City contract in the first half of the year, we're very comfortable with the 1.5% volume growth for 2020 with some organic growth, and by the way, with the backdrop of what appears to be a pretty darn resilient overall economy.

然後我們將回顧 1 月份——我們談到了它，但我們有那個大型燃煤殘餘物修復項目，我們有一個龐大的國民賬戶，這兩個項目都將在第二季度初開始。因此，即使今年上半年北加州大火和紐約市合同的艱難補償，我們對 2020 年 1.5% 的銷量增長以及一些有機增長感到非常滿意，順便說一下，在背景下似乎是一個非常有彈性的整體經濟。

Got it. That's very helpful. Next question's just really on the guidance in terms of what assumptions are you making in terms of pricing and values for recycled commodity values and then also the RINs for the full year?

知道了。這很有幫助。下一個問題實際上是關於您在定價和回收商品價值以及全年 RIN 方面做出的假設的指導？

Yes. Kyle, for recycling, listen, there's -- we finished the fourth quarter right around the $37 per ton number on average, and I think it was about $44 for the full year. There's been some talk of a little bit of uptick in the early part of the year on OCC. But frankly, we don't have anything baked in, in terms of commodity uplift.

是的。凱爾，關於回收，聽著，我們第四季度的平均價格約為每噸 37 美元，我認為全年約為 44 美元。今年年初，OCC 有一些關於上漲的討論。但坦率地說，就商品提振而言，我們沒有任何內在因素。

What I will tell you, though, is what -- in my prepared remarks, what's more important is that even though the total revenue impact was over $300 million for the organization for the full year, we're essentially flat. I think we're down about $2 million in EBITDA. So what we're really focused on is the commodity price is going to do what it's going to do, but we're still working to make sure we continue to evolve the model to a fee-for-service model where we can generate the right returns on margins, and we're moving in that direction.

不過，我要告訴你的是——在我準備好的發言中，更重要的是，儘管全年對組織的總收入影響超過 3 億美元，但我們基本上持平。我認為我們的 EBITDA 減少了大約 200 萬美元。因此，我們真正關注的是商品價格將如何變化，但我們仍在努力確保我們繼續將模型發展為按服務收費的模型，我們可以在其中生成正確的利潤率回報，我們正朝著這個方向前進。

And on the RINs side, we were effectively kind of flat to where we finished the back half of 2019 in terms of setting our guidance for 2020. We did not take into account the significant upswing that we saw in January, but we do have our eye on that and think that there's some potential value that can be created there.

在 RIN 方面，我們在設定 2020 年的指導方面實際上與我們在 2019 年下半年完成的情況持平。我們沒有考慮到我們在 1 月份看到的顯著上升，但我們確實注意到了這一點，並認為那裡可以創造一些潛在的價值。

On the recycling front, I do think it's important to talk about the fee-for-service model. And while commodity prices, as John mentioned, we projected to be flat, we do expect to continue to move forward with executing on that fee-for-service model and see some incremental revenue from that plan in the year ahead.

在回收方面，我確實認為討論按服務收費的模式很重要。正如約翰提到的，雖然商品價格預計將持平，但我們確實希望繼續推進按服務收費模式的執行，並在未來一年看到該計劃帶來的一些增量收入。

Just to quickly follow-up. If we assume RINs pricing at the January levels that sort of a increase, what kind of benefit do you think this would have to EBITDA on an annualized basis?

只是為了快速跟進。如果我們假設 RIN 的定價在 1 月份水平有所增加，您認為這對按年化計算的 EBITDA 有什麼樣的好處？

So Kyle, we've looked at -- I mean in the fourth quarter, we saw about an $0.86 per unit number. And right now, in 2020, we think it could be in the $1.10 to $1.20 range. But as you folks know, that number has been all over the board, and it's been a bit of a political football. But if it stays where -- in that $1.10 to $1.20 range, we are going to open our fourth RNG plant this year. There could be probably $10 million to $15 million of upside if those RINs hang in that range for the full year.

所以 Kyle，我們已經看過——我的意思是在第四季度，我們看到每個單位數量約為 0.86 美元。現在，到 2020 年，我們認為它可能在 1.10 美元到 1.20 美元之間。但正如你們所知，這個數字已經無處不在，而且有點像政治足球。但如果它保持在 1.10 美元到 1.20 美元的範圍內，我們將在今年開設我們的第四家 RNG 工廠。如果這些 RIN 全年都保持在該範圍內，可能會有 1000 萬至 1500 萬美元的上漲空間。

Next question comes from the line of Sean Eastman of KeyBanc.

下一個問題來自 KeyBanc 的 Sean Eastman。

I guess just from a high level, I just wanted to kind of go back to the 5% to 7% EBITDA growth target you guys outlined at the Analyst Day last year. Obviously, 2020 guidance came out toward the low end of that, and I assume maybe part of that is maybe the tough comp on the California wildfire, high-margin revenues. But just hoping to get some comments on how you're thinking about that longer-term target and just kind of why we're at the lower end in 2020.

我想從較高的層面來看，我只是想回到你們去年在分析師日上概述的 5% 到 7% 的 EBITDA 增長目標。顯然，2020 年的指導意見偏低，我認為其中一部分可能是對加州野火的艱難應對，高利潤收入。但只是希望就您如何考慮該長期目標以及為什麼我們在 2020 年處於低端的原因發表一些評論。

Yes. I think you've nailed it. I mean I think it is -- we do have tougher comps there with those wildfires. And those pretty much turned off last year at the very end of July. So we've got 7 months of tough comps there. Obviously, you can't predict whether there's something else that comes up throughout the year. If something else did happen, whether it's a natural disaster or a big project that we don't anticipate, then that would help to offset that. But for now, we felt like 5.2% was a reasonable number, within the previously communicated range of 5% to 7%, as you say, at the lower end of that, but we still feel confident that we'll get there. And I think that's -- we do feel like we've got an economy that provides a pretty good support for hitting within that 5% to 7% range.

是的。我想你已經搞定了。我的意思是我認為它是——我們確實有更強硬的應對那些野火。去年 7 月底，那些幾乎關閉了。所以我們在那裡有 7 個月的艱難比賽。顯然，您無法預測全年是否會出現其他情況。如果確實發生了其他事情，無論是自然災害還是我們沒有預料到的大型項目，那麼這將有助於抵消這一影響。但就目前而言，我們覺得 5.2% 是一個合理的數字，在之前傳達的 5% 到 7% 的範圍內，正如你所說，在該範圍的下限，但我們仍然有信心我們會實現這一目標。我認為那是——我們確實覺得我們的經濟為達到 5% 到 7% 的範圍提供了很好的支持。

I think when you see us get up towards 7% is when you'll start to see a couple of these headwinds that we've talked about for probably 2 years now really starting to kind of recover fully, and that means recycling, that means some consistency in RIN pricing, then you'll see us in the 7%, possibly even exceeding 7%. But with just solid waste, you're talking about a 5-plus percent number that's probably double the overall economy. It shows you how strong solid waste is.

我認為當你看到我們達到 7% 時，你就會開始看到我們已經討論了大約 2 年的一些不利因素現在真正開始完全恢復，這意味著回收，這意味著RIN 定價的一些一致性，然後你會看到我們在 7%，甚至可能超過 7%。但如果只考慮固體廢棄物，你說的是 5% 以上的數字，這可能是整體經濟的兩倍。它告訴你固體廢物有多強。

Yes. That's helpful. I guess the other interesting thing for me is that, that 5% to 7% target, kind of built a 2% by 2% price-volume backdrop. And as we look at the 2020 outlook, now it's a 2.5% price, 1.5% volume, which seems inherently more valuable to me. And I just wondered if that 2.5%, 1.5% is more accurate in terms of what we should be seeing for WM over that targeted time frame, that 3-year time frame.

是的。這很有幫助。我想對我來說另一件有趣的事情是，5% 到 7% 的目標，有點建立了 2% x 2% 的價量背景。當我們審視 2020 年的前景時，現在價格為 2.5%，數量為 1.5%，這對我來說似乎更有價值。我只是想知道 2.5%、1.5% 是否更準確，我們應該在目標時間範圍內看到 WM，即 3 年時間範圍。

I think the 2.5% is probably a bit more reflective of what you might expect going forward. The 1.5%, as we said earlier in your question here, reflects the tough comps. So all things being equal, in other words, the economy not being a big headwind of any kind, then I would expect that normally, we'd be closer to that 2% number that we've historically given. But this year, we have, as we said, the tough comp with the fires.

我認為 2.5% 可能更能反映您對未來的預期。正如我們之前在您的問題中所說的那樣，1.5% 反映了艱難的競爭。因此，在所有條件相同的情況下，換句話說，經濟不會成為任何形式的大逆風，那麼我預計通常情況下，我們會更接近歷史上給出的 2% 的數字。但今年，正如我們所說，我們與大火進行了艱難的較量。

There's also a tough comp with the New York City contract. And so the fires in the New York City contract together are about that 50 basis point differential. And so it's important to know that we've not backed off of the 2% long-term volume outlook. It's the 1.5% that's reflective of that tough comparison.

紐約市的合同也很艱難。因此，紐約市合約的火災加起來大約是 50 個基點的差異。因此，重要的是要知道我們沒有放棄 2% 的長期銷量前景。正是 1.5% 反映了這種艱難的比較。

Yes. It shouldn't be surprising to you that we're -- that we want to be a little bit conservative when we issue our guidance. I mean it's probably better to under-promise and over-deliver than the opposite. So I think we've got what we believe is very achievable guidance set for 2020.

是的。當我們發布指導意見時，我們希望稍微保守一點，這對您來說並不奇怪。我的意思是，低估承諾和超額兌現可能比相反更好。因此，我認為我們已經為 2020 年制定了我們認為非常可實現的指導方針。

And I guess, just a key takeaway here is that we're running at 2.5%, whereas you guys had a longer-term outlook of 2% on the price, which I think is probably pretty notable. Last question for me, just trying to understand the SG&A line. I think you have this 10% SG&A margin target. I just wondered if that's a number we hit in 2020. And whether there's more opportunity to continue to move that down just around these technology investments starting to be more than offset by the savings and benefits from those investments.

我想，這裡的一個關鍵要點是我們的運行率為 2.5%，而你們的長期價格前景為 2%，我認為這可能非常值得注意。我的最後一個問題，只是想了解 SG&A 行。我認為您有 10% 的 SG&A 利潤率目標。我只是想知道這是否是我們在 2020 年達到的數字。以及是否有更多機會繼續降低這些技術投資開始被這些投資的節省和收益所抵消。

I think when you look at 2019, Jim's mentioned earlier about those 2 items that were not planned for and certainly are not items that we expect to recur. Those 2 items, if we adjust for those, we would have delivered SG&A as a percentage of revenue of 10% in the year. And so we remain committed to that target over the long term. And what you see in addition to those 2 items are the impact of the ADS integration planning work that we're doing, we did adjust for those, and we'll continue to adjust for those in the year ahead. And then my mention of our enterprise resource planning efforts that we started in the fourth quarter. So those 2 items will elevate the level of recorded SG&A above 10%.

我想當你回顧 2019 年時，Jim 之前提到過這 2 個項目沒有計劃，當然也不是我們期望再次出現的項目。如果我們對這兩項進行調整，我們將交付 SG&A 佔當年收入 10% 的百分比。因此，我們將長期致力於實現該目標。除了這兩個項目之外，您看到的是我們正在進行的 ADS 集成規劃工作的影響，我們確實針對這些進行了調整，我們將在未來一年繼續針對這些進行調整。然後我提到了我們在第四季度開始的企業資源規劃工作。因此，這兩項將使記錄的 SG&A 水平提高 10% 以上。

But when we call those out and really focus on the fundamental investment in the organization, from a technology perspective, you're absolutely right, things like investments in our call center technology where we should be able to serve our customer online rather than having them call into our call center to get information about their accounts or their service will drive a reduction in SG&A over the long term. But right now, what we see is the incremental investment of that dollar into technology and our people is going to position us to want to continue to maintain SG&A as a percent of revenue at 10% rather than allow it to tick down because we think that those investments are worthwhile and create incremental value for the long term.

但是，當我們提出這些問題並真正關注組織的基本投資時，從技術的角度來看，你是絕對正確的，比如投資我們的呼叫中心技術，我們應該能夠在線服務我們的客戶而不是讓他們致電我們的呼叫中心以獲取有關他們帳戶的信息，或者他們的服務將在長期內推動 SG&A 的減少。但現在，我們看到的是美元對技術的增量投資，我們的員工將使我們希望繼續將 SG&A 佔收入的百分比維持在 10%，而不是讓它下降，因為我們認為這些投資是值得的，可以創造長期的增量價值。

Next question comes from the line of Tyler Brown of Raymond James.

下一個問題來自 Raymond James 的 Tyler Brown。

Jim or John, big picture question, but I want to come back to that 4.5% MSW yield print this quarter, the 3.8% for the year, which I felt like was, if not the biggest, one of the biggest stories of 2019. But it feels that there is real post-collection pricing momentum. And if we believe that pricing at the curb emanates from the landfill, why wouldn't we expect this new, call it, paradigm of landfill pricing really to set a stage for a prolonged positive pricing outlook on the collection side? I would presume that over the long run, core collection and core post-collection pricing really should equal out.

吉姆或約翰，大局問題，但我想回到本季度 4.5% 的 MSW 產量打印，全年 3.8%，我覺得即使不是最大的，也是 2019 年最大的故事之一。但感覺確實有收藏後的定價勢頭。如果我們相信路邊的定價來自垃圾填埋場，為什麼我們不期望這種新的，稱之為垃圾填埋場定價的範例真的為收集方面的長期積極定價前景奠定基礎？我認為從長遠來看，核心收藏和核心收藏後定價真的應該相等。

Well, look, Tyler, I think one does kind of beget the other. But as we've talked about landfill pricing for probably a decade, we've never really been able to establish any consistency there. And that's -- I think you're absolutely right. I think you've pinpointed it, and that is that it's one of the big stories for 2019 for us that we were able to, as I said in my remarks, get a strong MSW price number that is starting to approximate that cost structure that we've also talked about every quarter for the last 2 years. I mean we keep talking about how our cost structure is going up by 5% and MSW is going up by 1%, and we're finally getting to a point where we're starting to close the gap there.

好吧，泰勒，我認為一個人確實會生另一個人。但是，正如我們談論垃圾填埋場定價可能已有十年之久，我們從未真正能夠在那裡建立任何一致性。那就是——我認為你是絕對正確的。我想你已經指出了這一點，這就是我們能夠做到的 2019 年的重大事件之一，正如我在發言中所說的那樣，獲得了一個強大的 MSW 價格數字，該數字開始接近該成本結構我們還討論了過去兩年的每個季度。我的意思是，我們一直在談論我們的成本結構如何上升 5%，MSW 上升 1%，我們終於到了開始縮小差距的地步。

And so that's a big deal for us. And we're starting to do it on a consistent basis. I think our customers understand that things like leachate costs, which have been a topic of discussion for 2 years here, that leachate costs are going up, and they're going up really on a permanent basis, that labor costs continue to go up. So this is a -- it's a very big story. It's a story that we've ultimately talked about for a long time but never really been able to nail down. And now we're finally able to say we feel like landfill pricing is really here to stay.

所以這對我們來說很重要。我們開始在一致的基礎上這樣做。我認為我們的客戶了解像滲濾液成本這樣的事情，這已經在這裡討論了 2 年，滲濾液成本正在上升，而且它們確實在永久性地上升，勞動力成本繼續上升。所以這是一個 - 這是一個非常大的故事。這是一個我們最終討論了很長時間但從未真正確定下來的故事。現在我們終於可以說我們覺得垃圾填埋場定價真的會繼續存在。

Tyler, I would add to that. We are equally as focused on the transfer station pricing as well as part of the post-collection network. You've heard us talk about pressure on subcontracting costs and whatnot. So when you look at it -- I, in particular, the team are looking hard at what we're doing on the transfer side. We talked about residential. I mean if you look at our residential core price and yield, it's going up. It's progressing. And we talked about volume, there could be some volume pressure there. But I think if we're delivering better margins and better returns when you look all the way through the network, I think we're comfortable with that.

泰勒，我要補充一點。我們同樣關注中轉站定價以及後收集網絡的一部分。你聽說過我們談論分包成本的壓力等等。所以當你看它時——我，特別是，團隊正在認真研究我們在轉會方面所做的事情。我們談到了住宅。我的意思是，如果你看看我們的住宅核心價格和收益率，它就會上漲。它在進步。我們談到了成交量，那裡可能存在一定的成交量壓力。但我認為，如果我們在整個網絡中尋找更高的利潤和更好的回報，我認為我們對此感到滿意。

Well, I think one last thing here, Tyler. When we talk about -- it's a little bit of an add-on to what John said there. But when you talk about margin improvement, you might say, "Well, gosh, I mean, you're not even covering your cost increase there with your landfill. What are you so excited about?" Well, look, I mean, I would tell you that 4.5% is better than 1%. So while we may not be covering that cost increase, which is kind of approaching 5% of the landfills, it still is going to add to our margins, similarly, on the resi line of business, which is really the one collection line of business that's seen margin degradation over a period of 5 to 10 years, falling, I don't know, John, almost in half over a period of 10 years, that, that line of business will also start to affect overall margins, even though we will not get back to where we were 10 years ago for quite some time. So while we're -- while a lot of this is really just cost recovery, it's cost recovery that we weren't doing in the past. So -- and we've got to get there now. And I think consistently, we're starting to show that.

好吧，我想最後一件事，泰勒。當我們談論 - 這是約翰在那裡所說的內容的一點補充。但是當你談到提高利潤率時，你可能會說，“好吧，天哪，我的意思是，你甚至沒有用你的垃圾填埋場來彌補你在那裡的成本增加。你為什麼這麼興奮？”好吧，聽著，我的意思是，我會告訴你 4.5% 比 1% 好。因此，雖然我們可能無法彌補成本增加（接近垃圾填埋場的 5%），但它仍然會增加我們的利潤，同樣地，在 resi 業務線，這實際上是一個收集業務線在 5 到 10 年的時間裡，利潤率下降了，約翰，我不知道，在 10 年的時間裡幾乎下降了一半，即使我們在相當長的一段時間內都不會回到 10 年前的狀態。因此，雖然我們 - 雖然其中很多實際上只是成本回收，但這是我們過去沒有做過的成本回收。所以 - 我們現在必須到達那裡。我一直認為，我們開始證明這一點。

So I hate to maybe nitpick just a touch. But in '19, you posted collection and disposal yield of 2.8%. Again, we talked about accelerating post collection. So why are you guys looking for a deceleration of collection and disposal yield in 2020? Is that just conservatism?

所以我討厭挑剔一點。但在 19 年，您公佈的收集和處置收益率為 2.8%。再次，我們談到了加速郵政收集。那麼你們為什麼要在 2020 年降低收集和處理產量呢？這只是保守主義嗎？

Yes. I mean I think a little bit of that is conservatism. I mean it's -- we've said all along that we would be 2% price, 2% volume. 2% was kind of the baseline. So I would tell you that 2.5% is -- if you want to think about it, the way I just said it on the previous question, it's kind of almost a new baseline for yield, which is -- and instead of 2%, maybe we call it 2.5%. We're not ready to call it 2.8% yet.

是的。我的意思是我認為其中有一點是保守主義。我的意思是——我們一直都說我們的價格是 2%，數量是 2%。2% 是一種基準。所以我會告訴你 2.5% 是 - 如果你想考慮一下，就像我剛才在上一個問題中所說的那樣，它幾乎是收益率的新基準，而不是 2%，也許我們稱之為 2.5%。我們還沒有準備好稱之為 2.8%。

Okay. Okay. And then, Devina, just a little bit, I think implied in your guidance, you're looking for maybe a 40 basis point improvement in EBITDA margins in 2020, if my math is correct. But I was hoping that you could maybe parse out some of the drivers there. So I mean wouldn't recycling and RINs, the CNG tax credit be margin dilutive? So are you maybe implying that kind of the core margin expansion is actually maybe more, say, 60 to 80 basis points? Or is my math all messed up?

好的。好的。然後，Devina，我認為在你的指導中暗示了一點點，如果我的數學是正確的，你正在尋找 2020 年 EBITDA 利潤率可能提高 40 個基點。但我希望你能解析出那裡的一些驅動程序。所以我的意思是，回收和 RIN，CNG 稅收抵免不會稀釋利潤嗎？那麼你是不是在暗示這種核心利潤率擴張實際上可能更多，比如 60 到 80 個基點？還是我的數學全搞砸了？

No, I think your math is good. On those items that you mentioned, certainly, we do think that there's some dilution to margin. Although at some point, that kind of flattens out from a margin perspective because we're not projecting any meaningful growth in recycling or RINs in the year ahead. So the impact to margin should be relatively flat. But your point on fuel tax credit, that definitely will be dilutive to margin in the year ahead.

不，我認為你的數學很好。當然，在您提到的那些項目上，我們確實認為利潤率有所稀釋。儘管在某些時候，從利潤率的角度來看，這種情況會趨於平緩，因為我們預計未來一年回收或 RIN 不會有任何有意義的增長。因此對保證金的影響應該相對平坦。但是你關於燃油稅抵免的觀點肯定會稀釋來年的利潤率。

The outlook for collection and disposal continues to be that 50 to 100 basis points. So your 60 to 80 that you mentioned is right in that range. Jim -- John's mention of M100, the focus on MSDO for repair and maintenance. And then one of the items that we've not mentioned yet today, but I think really is driving some productivity from a margin perspective is our turnover. Our turnover improved about 150 basis points during the year, and we think that we can continue to march forward on those goals and objectives with the focus on people first at Waste Management.

收集和處置的前景仍然是 50 到 100 個基點。所以你提到的 60 到 80 正好在這個範圍內。Jim -- John 提到 M100，重點是 MSDO 進行維修和保養。然後我們今天還沒有提到的項目之一，但我認為從利潤率的角度來看真正推動了一些生產力是我們的營業額。我們的營業額在這一年裡提高了大約 150 個基點，我們認為我們可以繼續朝著這些目標前進，並在 Waste Management 以人為本為重點。

Okay. And then super quick modeling questions. Was the LTI true-up in legal and SG&A?

好的。然後是超級快速的建模問題。LTI 在法律和 SG&A 方面是否符合要求？

That was in SG&A, yes, and it was about $40 million.

那是在 SG&A 中，是的，大約是 4000 萬美元。

Okay. Right. Okay. And then I think there's some movement going on in cash taxes. What would you expect that cash tax as a percentage of book this 2020?

好的。正確的。好的。然後我認為現金稅正在發生一些變化。您預計 2020 年現金稅佔圖書的百分比是多少？

Yes. So our cash tax payment this year was lower. We made that decision because of the fuel tax credit. While it doesn't show up on the same line, we knew from a cash perspective, it was something that we would see a benefit of in 2020. So we normalized that by reducing our Q4 cash tax payment on our federal return. And so our cash taxes were about 67.5% of book in 2019. We're projecting that goes up to about 70% in the year ahead.

是的。所以我們今年的現金納稅額較低。由於燃油稅抵免，我們做出了該決定。雖然它沒有出現在同一條線上，但我們從現金的角度知道，這是我們將在 2020 年看到的好處。因此，我們通過減少聯邦申報表的第四季度現金稅款來規範化這一點。因此，我們的現金稅在 2019 年約為賬面稅的 67.5%。我們預計明年這一比例將上升至 70% 左右。

Next question comes from the line of Michael Hoffman of Stifel.

下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Michael Hoffman。

A couple of housekeeping. Can we follow just a directional trend on the volumes so we are thinking about this correctly. Negative in 1Q, flat or slightly positive in 2, incrementally positive in 3, incrementally positive in 4, and that's how you get to the 1.5%?

幾個家政服務。我們能否僅遵循交易量的方向趨勢，以便我們正確地考慮這一點。第 1 季度為負，第 2 季度持平或略為正，第 3 季度逐漸增加，第 4 季度逐漸增加，這就是你如何達到 1.5% 的？

Yes. I'm not sure I've been -- based on January, I'm not sure I'd say negative in Q1. I mean I went through the numbers for January that we've seen to date, and they were pretty encouraging. So I think you could end up with slightly positive in Q1. We'll see based on what happens in February and March, obviously. But the volume, particularly as we look at the commercial line of business, has been strong for probably 3 years, and it continues to be strong. I think that is probably the best representation of the strength of the consumer economy. We talked about that at the end of Q3.

是的。我不確定我是否已經——基於 1 月份，我不確定我會在第一季度說負面。我的意思是，我查看了迄今為止我們所看到的 1 月份的數據，它們非常令人鼓舞。所以我認為你最終可能會在第一季度略有積極。顯然，我們將根據 2 月和 3 月發生的情況來看。但銷量，尤其是當我們看商業業務線時，可能已經強勁了 3 年，而且會繼續強勁。我認為這可能是消費經濟實力的最好體現。我們在第三季度末談到了這一點。

So I would tell you, I think commercial is certainly carrying today, and landfill has been reasonably strong as well. Landfill has those tough comps.

所以我會告訴你，我認為今天的商業活動肯定在進行，垃圾填埋場也相當強勁。垃圾填埋場有那些艱難的補償。

Q2 and Q3 are your toughest comps on the fire volume. So Q1 necessarily -- doesn't necessarily have as a heavy burden from that regard. And so I think that's why Jim's comment earlier about the strength that we've seen in January, we don't expect Q1 to have as significant a hill to climb with regard to that year-over-year comparison as Q2 will.

Q2 和 Q3 是你在火力方面最艱難的組合。因此，從這方面來看，Q1 不一定是一個沉重的負擔。因此，我認為這就是為什麼吉姆早些時候對我們在 1 月份看到的實力發表評論的原因，我們預計第一季度在同比比較方面不會像第二季度那樣重要。

I think, Michael, there was a little bit of a kind of a gap between fires last year because you had Southern California that really impacted Q4 of '18, so we had tough comps in Q4 of '19. Then there was a little bit of a lull there, and then you had the big Northern California fires, and that really started coming to us more, I think, in February. So January really wasn't impacted much at all by fire volume. But the fires -- the volume coming into our sites in Northern California pretty much turned off completely at the very end of July.

我認為，邁克爾，去年的火災之間存在一點差距，因為南加州確實影響了 18 年的第四季度，所以我們在 19 年的第四季度遇到了困難。然後那裡有一點平靜，然後你有北加州的大火，我認為在 2 月份，這真的開始更多地向我們襲來。所以一月份真的沒有受到火災量的太大影響。但是大火——進入我們在北加州的站點的火力在 7 月底幾乎完全熄滅了。

All right. So what I'm hearing is maybe a zig-zag of a 0 or positive 1Q, slightly negative, flattish in 2Q, a little bit better in 3, and then better in 4, and that's how you get to the 1.5%?

好的。所以我聽到的可能是 0 或正 1Q 的鋸齒形，在 2Q 略微負，持平，在 3 好一點，然後在 4 好一點，這就是你如何達到 1.5%？

I think that's probably right.

我想這可能是對的。

Okay. All right. It just helps the modeling, so there's no noise when things are reported. Jim, I listened carefully to your opening remarks, and you make a point of saying, I think an important metric is operating EBITDA. So operating EBITDA is different than adjusted EBITDA. I'm presuming that's -- I'm hearing that correctly?

好的。好的。它只是幫助建模，所以在報告事情時沒有噪音。吉姆，我仔細聽了你的開場白，你特意說，我認為一個重要的指標是運營 EBITDA。因此，運營 EBITDA 不同於調整後的 EBITDA。我假設那是——我沒聽錯吧？

No. I mean, I'm talk -- I just -- it's just the way we -- I call it out, but it's -- it is adjusted EBITDA. That's what I'm talking about.

不。我的意思是，我在說 - 我只是 - 這就是我們 - 我稱之為的方式，但它是 - 它是調整後的 EBITDA。我就是這個意思。

It's the adjusted number. Okay. So can you help us with then, Devina, what's the approximate dollar amount of adjustments you're assuming in the 2020 number versus what you actually produced in 2019?

這是調整後的數字。好的。那麼，德維納，你能幫我們解決一下嗎，你在 2020 年的數字中假設的調整金額與你在 2019 年實際生產的金額相比大約是多少？

We don't specifically predict what we think our adjustments will be in the year ahead. Though one item that we do know about, that I mentioned during my prepared remarks, is the ERP system upgrade, and we think that, that adjustment could be up to $40 million in the year.

我們沒有具體預測我們認為我們將在未來一年進行的調整。雖然我們確實知道的一個項目是 ERP 系統升級，但我在準備好的發言中提到過，我們認為，這一調整在這一年可能高達 4000 萬美元。

Okay. So that was a question. ERPs typically tend to be long planning things. So this feels abrupt. Is it?

好的。所以這是一個問題。ERP 通常傾向於長期規劃。所以這感覺很突然。是嗎？

It's certainly not abrupt. It's something that we've been talking about for some time. There was a bit of a fork in the road decision for us to make, whether or not we wanted to do a technical, more kind of maintenance-oriented upgrade to the systems that we had or we wanted to make a more transformational change. And with Tamla's partnership, she and I viewed it as the right time for us to make a transformational investment in our finance and HR systems. And so that's the path that we're starting to work down. As you can appreciate, this is a process that takes a lot of time and energy and support from all levels of the organization, including our Board of Directors. And we worked through those processes and made a final determination about midyear and started to launch our process in the fourth quarter.

這當然不是突然的。這是我們已經討論了一段時間的事情。我們在做出決定時遇到了一個岔路口，無論我們是想對我們擁有的系統進行技術性的、更面向維護的升級，還是我們想做出更具變革性的改變。在 Tamla 的合作下，她和我認為現在是對我們的財務和人力資源系統進行轉型投資的合適時機。這就是我們開始努力的方向。正如您所理解的那樣，這是一個需要大量時間和精力以及來自組織各個級別（包括我們的董事會）的支持的過程。我們完成了這些流程，並在年中做出了最終決定，並在第四季度開始啟動我們的流程。

Yes, Michael, I just want to add to that. It might appear abrupt from a reporting standpoint. It's certainly not abrupt from a planning standpoint. I mean we've spent at least a year, probably more like 1.5 years, planning for this, as she said, going through an RFP process. We've dedicated people within the organization to really oversee this and run it.

是的，邁克爾，我只想補充一點。從報告的角度來看，這可能顯得突兀。從計劃的角度來看，這當然不是突然的。我的意思是我們至少花了一年時間，可能更像是 1.5 年，正如她所說，為此進行規劃，通過 RFP 流程。我們在組織內專門派人來真正監督和運行它。

So -- and then when it comes to the reporting aspects, this is really the first time we've kind of called that out, but we went through a diligence process where we looked at what other companies have done to see what the treatment has been and a little bit of both, but probably more on the exclusion side, which is why we opted for that approach.

所以 - 然後談到報告方面，這確實是我們第一次提出這一點，但我們經歷了一個盡職調查過程，我們研究了其他公司所做的事情以了解治療方法曾經和兩者兼而有之，但可能更多的是在排除方面，這就是我們選擇這種方法的原因。

And that makes me feel better that it's not abrupt, the planning is good. Free cash, just so I'm clear, do I take $90 million for CNG credit out of the midpoint of the guidance? Is that what I'm supposed to do? Is that what you're saying? Is that what I heard you say? I'm not sure I understood what you're saying about the 2020.

這讓我感覺更好，因為它並不突然，計劃很好。自由現金，我很清楚，我是否從指導的中點中提取了 9000 萬美元的 CNG 信貸？那是我應該做的嗎？你是這麼說的嗎？那是我聽到你說的嗎？我不確定我是否理解您所說的 2020 年。

So our 2020 guide of $215 million to $225 million includes $90 million from the fuel tax credits. At the midpoint, we expect EBITDA growth to be about $225 million. Interest, as I mentioned, is going to be a headwind from a free cash flow perspective in the year ahead because we've taken out $4.5 billion of incremental debt. And so that's a headwind of about $100 million in the year ahead. Cash taxes, we think, will be another $115 million on a year-over-year basis. And then we have a working capital headwind that is about $75 million that will round out the guidance. But still really drawing you back to the operating EBITDA strength and honing in on an expectation for $225 million of growth from operating EBITDA.

因此，我們 2020 年的 2.15 億美元至 2.25 億美元指南包括來自燃油稅抵免的 9000 萬美元。在中點，我們預計 EBITDA 增長約為 2.25 億美元。正如我所提到的，從未來一年的自由現金流角度來看，利息將成為不利因素，因為我們已經承擔了 45 億美元的增量債務。因此，這將在未來一年帶來約 1 億美元的逆風。我們認為，現金稅將同比增加 1.15 億美元。然後我們有大約 7500 萬美元的營運資金逆風，這將完善指導。但仍然真正吸引你回到運營 EBITDA 實力，並磨練對運營 EBITDA 增長 2.25 億美元的預期。

Thanks for reading my mind on the next question, which was the bridge, so I appreciate that. Help us understand what's structural and what can change over time between a core of 4% and a reported of 2.5%, how that gap closes? And I'm hopeful that 2.5% isn't permanent, that you get to improve that. But can you talk about that?

感謝您閱讀我對下一個問題的想法，這是橋樑，所以我很感激。幫助我們了解什麼是結構性的，什麼會隨著時間的推移在核心 4% 和報告的 2.5% 之間發生變化，這種差距如何縮小？我希望 2.5% 不是永久性的，你可以改進它。但是你能談談嗎？

Yes. The fundamental difference between core price of 4% and yield of 2.5% is really related to churn. And our churn was essentially flat in 2019, but we do see continued opportunity with regard to reducing churn as we drive a differentiated service offering with technology and improve our customer service. Both things, we think, we're advancing in really positive ways.

是的。4% 的核心價格和 2.5% 的收益率之間的根本差異確實與客戶流失有關。我們的客戶流失率在 2019 年基本持平，但隨著我們利用技術推動差異化服務產品並改善客戶服務，我們確實看到了減少客戶流失率的持續機會。我們認為，這兩件事都在以非常積極的方式推進。

So as we can reduce our churn, and we think there's probably 150 basis points of room in that figure, we can close the gap between the 4% and the 2.5%.

因此，由於我們可以減少客戶流失，而且我們認為該數字可能還有 150 個基點的空間，因此我們可以縮小 4% 和 2.5% 之間的差距。

I would say, Mike, sorry, I would also say that we spoke either in Q2 or 3 about some -- a little bit of friction with some national accounts that we shed last year. The good news is, is that we are actually adding a couple of large national accounts here in the first half of the year. And the reason I bring that up is churn aside, what we're really trying to focus on and making sure that the first day isn't our best day with that business. We've got the right margins going in, and we've got the right rate setting mechanism built into those revenue books. And so we're pleased with that. I will tell you, we looked at churn and also our net C&I customer base, and that -- the net C&I number was up a pretty good bit at the end of the year.

我會說，邁克，對不起，我還要說我們在第二季度或第三季度談到了一些——與我們去年放棄的一些國民賬戶有一點摩擦。好消息是，我們實際上在今年上半年在這裡增加了幾個大型國民賬戶。我提出這一點的原因是撇開客戶流失，我們真正想要關注的是什麼，並確保第一天不是我們在該業務上最好的一天。我們有正確的利潤率，我們在這些收入賬簿中建立了正確的費率設定機制。所以我們對此感到滿意。我會告訴你，我們研究了客戶流失率以及我們的淨 C&I 客戶群，並且在年底時淨 C&I 數量增加了很多。

Yes, Michael. And last thing, in reference to your kind of pricing baseline question about 2.5%. As I said to Tyler, I mean, we -- our baseline was 2%, and I think it's starting to give us some confidence that we can move that baseline up. Doesn't mean we can't exceed it. I mean we obviously exceeded 2% in 2019, but we feel like we're able to -- particularly as we think about the pricing at landfills and in residential where we've been lagging for so many years, the ability to hit -- to move that baseline up by 50 basis points is, we think, certainly achievable.

是的，邁克爾。最後一件事，參考你關於 2.5% 的定價基準問題。正如我對泰勒所說，我的意思是，我們的基線是 2%，我認為這開始讓我們有信心可以提高基線。並不意味著我們不能超過它。我的意思是我們在 2019 年顯然超過了 2%，但我們覺得我們能夠——特別是當我們考慮垃圾填埋場和住宅的定價時，我們已經落後了這麼多年，有能力達到——我們認為，將該基線提高 50 個基點當然是可以實現的。

Okay. That's what I thought, but I just wanted to draw it out. And then back to Advanced Disposal quickly. You closed it. You've had this 12 months to plan. I'm assuming you've -- and I'm calling them green and yellow teams. But can you talk about some of what that planning looks like? And what we can expect to see some -- what are tangible milestones that would come out that are a result of your planning?

好的。我就是這麼想的，但我只是想把它畫出來。然後快速返回 Advanced Disposal。你關閉了它。你有這 12 個月的時間來計劃。我假設你已經 - 我稱他們為綠色和黃色團隊。但是你能談談這個計劃是什麼樣子的嗎？我們可以期待看到一些 - 什麼是您計劃的結果會出現的有形里程碑？

So I would tell you, Michael, that our group on our side of the fence has been hard at work really since probably June building out the plans for integration. Keep in mind, Advanced is still a separate company until we close. So our planning activities have really been on our side of the fence. And I will tell you that I think the first year, I will -- I've said publicly, privately that our goal day 1 and really through probably day 30 or 60 is really just making sure we take care of the employees and we hang on to our customers and provide them the right service. So this is a long game for us. We're going to move as quickly as we can to achieve synergies, but we're going to do it with people and customers in -- as a priority.

所以我要告訴你，邁克爾，我們這邊的小組從六月份開始就一直在努力工作，制定整合計劃。請記住，在我們關閉之前，Advanced 仍然是一家獨立的公司。所以我們的規劃活動確實站在了我們這邊。我會告訴你，我認為第一年，我會——我已經公開、私下說過，我們的目標第一天，實際上可能是第 30 天或第 60 天，實際上只是確保我們照顧好員工，然後我們就掛了到我們的客戶，並為他們提供正確的服務。所以這對我們來說是一場漫長的比賽。我們將盡快採取行動以實現協同效應，但我們將優先考慮人員和客戶。

But it is why, and Devina talked about it in her script, it is why we've -- we're going to be pretty strict about M&A this year within that $100 million to $200 million range because it's -- that is not -- lowering down to that range is not indicative of the lack of a robust market or whatever. I think that's still there. But what I don't want to do is distract folks who are going to be working hard on ADS integration, to John's point, and get them somehow, even if just mildly distracted, by another acquisition. So we're going to -- we really are going to be in that $100 million to $200 million for the year.

但這就是為什麼，德維娜在她的劇本中談到了這一點，這就是為什麼我們 - 我們今年將在 1 億至 2 億美元的範圍內對併購非常嚴格，因為它 - 那不是 - - 降至該範圍並不表示缺乏強勁的市場或其他原因。我認為那仍然存在。但我不想做的是分散那些將要在 ADS 集成上努力工作的人的注意力，以約翰的觀點，並以某種方式讓他們分心，即使只是輕微的分心，另一次收購。所以我們要 - 我們今年真的要投入 1 億到 2 億美元。

Now the only caveat to that would be, let's say, we get -- we really have accelerated the integration work and the synergy work, and we get to Q4, and we feel like, wow, most of that is done and something pops up on our radar that just -- we can't pass up. Okay. We'll talk about it at that point. But for now, we're setting an expectation that we're going to be -- it's just going to be small tuck-ins throughout the year, and we will focus our attention on the integration work with ADS.

現在唯一需要注意的是，比方說，我們得到了——我們確實加速了整合工作和協同工作，我們到了第四季度，我們覺得，哇，大部分工作都完成了，突然出現了一些東西在我們的雷達上，我們不能放棄。好的。到時候我們再談。但就目前而言，我們正在設定一個我們將要成為的期望——全年只會有小規模的投入，我們將把注意力集中在與 ADS 的集成工作上。

Well, you're doing 5 years of tuck-ins in 1 year with ADS anyway.

好吧，無論如何，您在 1 年內使用 ADS 進行了 5 年的訓練。

Exactly.

確切地。

So I mean, by all -- so I -- none of that freaks me out other than is there an accelerated level of deals just because everybody wakes up and decides there might be a socialist elected to presidency and taxes are going up, and they pull it all into 2020, you don't want to miss some of that. But I get why you ought to focus on...

所以我的意思是，總的來說 - 所以我 - 除了因為每個人都醒來並決定可能會有一位社會主義者當選總統並且稅收增加而他們正在加速交易之外，沒有任何事情讓我感到害怕，而且他們把這一切都拉到 2020 年，你不想錯過其中的一些。但我明白為什麼你應該關注...

I won't say anything -- I won't comment on the politics now. But hopefully, nothing freaks you out.

我不會說什麼——我現在不會評論政治。但希望沒有什麼會嚇到你。

Well, just -- I mean, sellers have to figure out what their after-tax proceeds are going to be. And if they think they've got a changing tax environment coming into '21, they move -- they're buy -- they're selling into '20.

嗯，只是——我的意思是，賣家必須弄清楚他們的稅後收益是多少。如果他們認為進入 21 世紀的稅收環境正在發生變化，他們就會移動——他們正在購買——他們正在出售到 20 世紀。

Yes.

是的。

Next question comes from the line of Hamzah Mazari of Jefferies.

下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Hamzah Mazari。

My first question is just on ADSW. Any thoughts as to the time line to achieve the $100 million plus in synergy and sort of costs to achieve those synergies? Any framework to think about for us?

我的第一個問題只是關於 ADSW。關於實現 1 億美元以上協同效應的時間表以及實現這些協同效應所需的成本，您有什麼想法嗎？有什麼框架可以為我們考慮嗎？

Well, Hamzah, I would tell you that I think we've been pretty clear that we think for the balance of 2020, between integration and costs to achieve, not a ton of benefit in 2020. We expect that through the course of 2021, we're going to make up a good bit of ground, and you'll start to see a lot of the net benefit for the organization.

好吧，Hamzah，我想告訴你，我認為我們已經非常清楚地考慮到 2020 年的平衡，即整合和實現成本之間的平衡，而不是 2020 年的大量收益。我們預計，到 2021 年，我們將打好基礎，您將開始看到該組織的大量淨收益。

And from a cost to achieve perspective, we're planning for cost to achieve to equal 1 year's worth of full synergy realization. That is exclusive of some of the transaction costs that are customary like payments to banks and things like that.

從實現成本的角度來看，我們計劃實現的成本等於 1 年的完全協同實現的價值。這不包括一些常見的交易成本，例如向銀行付款等。

Got it. Very helpful. And then aside from solid waste and recycling, could you frame for us how big other businesses are for you today, haz waste, med waste? And is that a focus of growth post ADSW integration?

知道了。很有幫助。然後除了固體廢物和回收之外，您能否為我們描述一下今天其他業務對您來說有多大，haz 廢物，med 廢物？這是 ADSW 整合後的增長重點嗎？

Yes. We could probably -- I'll take a shot at it quickly. And then -- med waste is quite small for us, really. I think we have a couple of locations maybe in Nevada and maybe in -- on the West Coast. So med waste is small for us. The Energy Services business has been -- was a focal point for us in 2019 with the acquisition of Petro Waste. So that business essentially doubled. That had been, at its very, very peak back in 2014, had been $250 million-ish in revenue, and it has fallen back to somewhere in the neighborhood of maybe $100 million in revenue. And then, of course, when we bought Petro Waste, that's kind of doubled the size of it, basically. But it still is relatively small in comparison to the overall solid waste big business that we have. And then what was the other -- oh, haz waste.

是的。我們可能——我會很快嘗試一下。然後——醫療廢物對我們來說真的很小。我認為我們在內華達州和西海岸有幾個地點。所以醫療廢物對我們來說很小。能源服務業務一直是我們在 2019 年收購 Petro Waste 的焦點。因此，該業務基本上翻了一番。早在 2014 年，它的收入就達到了 2.5 億美元左右，現在已經回落到大約 1 億美元左右。然後，當然，當我們購買 Petro Waste 時，它的規模基本上翻了一番。但與我們擁有的整體固體廢物大企業相比，它仍然相對較小。然後是另一個——哦，危險廢物。

I would tell you, Hamzah, we've seen good growth really along the M&I corridor in our hazardous waste business. We continue to make strategic investments in our facilities, both around the Gulf Coast, the Pacific Northwest, et cetera. So it's an important part of our business, I would say, if you were trying to look at it in terms of scale to $16-plus billion revenue line, I wouldn't call that necessarily material, but it is an important part of our business. It's part of our differentiated services for our M&I customer base, and we've got a great team of folks who continue to run that business very well for us.

我會告訴你，Hamzah，我們在危險廢物業務的 M&I 走廊上確實看到了良好的增長。我們繼續對墨西哥灣沿岸、太平洋西北地區等地的設施進行戰略投資。所以這是我們業務的重要組成部分，我想說，如果你試圖從規模到 16 億美元以上的收入線來看待它，我不會說這一定是重要的，但它是我們的重要組成部分商業。這是我們為 M&I 客戶群提供差異化服務的一部分，我們擁有一支優秀的團隊，他們繼續為我們很好地經營這項業務。

Yes, but I think that -- I think if you look at the growth engines there, I mean, they all have growth potential, certainly, but I would probably highlight Energy Services, it's down. I mean -- and -- but I think that ends up being a growth business for us. Whether it is kind of traditional drill cuttings or whether it's waters or what have you, that has the potential to be a growth business for us. And then I think, as John said, the M&I business, for sure, with coal combustion residuals, I mentioned the big contract that -- the remediation contract that we won. We think we have a couple of others that we could win in 2020. So the pipeline looks strong there, and we feel like we've got -- there's really a small group, if not one company, that can really do what we do on handling the full solution for coal combustion residuals. So that's certainly a growth opportunity for us.

是的，但我認為 - 我認為如果你看看那裡的增長引擎，我的意思是，它們都有增長潛力，當然，但我可能會強調能源服務，它正在下降。我的意思是——而且——但我認為這最終會成為我們的增長業務。無論是傳統的鑽屑，還是水域，或者你有什麼，這對我們來說都有可能成為一項增長業務。然後我認為，正如約翰所說，M&I 業務，當然，還有煤燃燒殘留物，我提到了大合同——我們贏得的修復合同。我們認為我們還有其他幾個可以在 2020 年贏得的。因此，那裡的管道看起來很強大，而且我們覺得我們已經有了 - 真的有一小部分，如果不是一家公司，真的可以做我們在處理煤燃燒殘留物的完整解決方案方面所做的事情。所以這對我們來說無疑是一個增長機會。

Great. And just a last question. On landfill pricing, you talked about sort of cost inflation. We've obviously seen landfill pricing step up the last few quarters, but it's been pretty low for a long time aside from the last few quarters. Why can't you raise it a lot more? Does it take a long time to roll through your system? You had referenced sort of cost inflation of 5%. So just give us a sense of is this sort of a gradual uplift for a reason, or can you just push through higher price to cover the cost structure?

偉大的。最後一個問題。關於垃圾填埋場定價，您談到了某種成本通脹。我們顯然已經看到垃圾填埋場的定價在過去幾個季度有所上漲，但除了過去幾個季度之外，很長一段時間以來它一直很低。你為什麼不能把它提高很多？滾動瀏覽您的系統需要很長時間嗎？你提到了 5% 的成本通脹。因此，讓我們了解這種逐漸提升是出於某種原因，還是您可以通過提高價格來彌補成本結構？

I don't know. I mean when I looked at historical MSW pricing at 1%, and then the Q4 at 4.5%, somewhat of a quadrupling there felt pretty good to me. So could it go higher? Look, if our cost structure is 5%, at a minimum, I sure would like to get to 5%. But I'm happy with the progress we're making on it. It's not to say that we can't get up to, obviously, fully cover that cost structure. But I wanted to -- first and foremost, I wanted to make sure that we could consistently do this. We've never had any consistency in it. And now with 2019 and a bit of 2018 starting to really show consistency in landfill pricing, I'm happy with that so far, and then we'll address the number going forward.

我不知道。我的意思是，當我查看 1% 的歷史 MSW 定價，然後是 4.5% 的第四季度時，我覺得翻了兩番，感覺相當不錯。那麼它能漲得更高嗎？看，如果我們的成本結構是 5%，至少，我當然想達到 5%。但我對我們在這方面取得的進展感到高興。顯然，這並不是說我們無法完全覆蓋該成本結構。但我想——首先，我想確保我們能夠始終如一地做到這一點。我們從來沒有任何一致性。現在，隨著 2019 年和 2018 年開始真正顯示垃圾填埋場定價的一致性，到目前為止我對此感到滿意，然後我們將解決未來的數字。

Next question comes from the line of Mark Neville of Scotiabank.

下一個問題來自豐業銀行的馬克內維爾。

Maybe just first on the Advanced transaction. Just so I'm clear, just on the divestiture package of the program. So the deal closes, and then you'll have -- just so I'm clear, a finite sort of period of time to divest of, whatever you need to sell? Or does it need to be sold before it closes?

也許只是首先在高級事務上。我很清楚，只是關於該計劃的資產剝離包。所以交易結束，然後你將有——我很清楚，一段有限的時間來剝離，無論你需要出售什麼？還是需要在打烊前賣掉？

Well, I mean, some of those details are still being worked out, Mark, with the regulators. But historically, the industry has been allowed to a period of time post-closing to be able to narrow down the divestiture package and obviously the suitors for those assets.

嗯，我的意思是，馬克，其中一些細節仍在與監管機構一起制定。但從歷史上看，該行業被允許在交易結束後的一段時間內縮小資產剝離範圍，並顯然縮小這些資產的競購者範圍。

Okay. And it sounds like there's enough interest there that you're sort of not a disadvantaged seller? Meaning that you don't have to sell (inaudible).

好的。聽起來那裡有足夠的興趣，你不是一個處於不利地位的賣家？這意味著您不必出售（聽不清）。

I mean, listen, I mean, I think everybody knows the history of Advanced and how they grew to where they are. And the assets that are on the list right now are obviously, though, in very high demand that we think from -- as evidenced by the number of folks who've lined up to chat with us about it.

我的意思是，聽著，我的意思是，我想每個人都知道 Advanced 的歷史以及他們如何成長到現在的位置。不過，目前清單上的資產顯然需求量很大，我們認為這是從排隊與我們討論它的人數證明的。

Well, I think there are assets, John, that had it not been for this acquisition, would never have seen the light of day.

好吧，我認為約翰，如果不是這次收購，有些資產永遠不會重見天日。

Yes. I agree.

是的。我同意。

Fair. Okay. Maybe just a follow-up, I guess, on the landfill pricing. Again, I presume that there is, again, the incremental -- the margin on the volume is -- the incremental margin is pretty high. So there is, I guess, some sort of upper limit to how much you can raise pricing if there is, again, an alternative sort of place to dispose. And again, if you're doing 4.5%, you're not quite at the 5%, but it feels like it could be a lot higher. But I got -- I assume there is sort of risk to losing some volume, right?

公平的。好的。我想，也許只是關於垃圾填埋場定價的後續行動。再次，我假設再次存在增量 - 數量的利潤率是 - 增量利潤率非常高。因此，我想，如果再次有另一種可供處置的地方，那麼你可以提高多少價格是有某種上限的。再說一次，如果你做的是 4.5%，你就不是 5%，但感覺它可能會高得多。但我得到了 - 我認為失去一些音量有某種風險，對吧？

Certainly, there's always risk to losing volume. I will tell you, Mark, what I've been particularly happy with is that what our revenue management team is doing to align with the operating side and using some of the data and analytical tools we have, I think we're making much, much better decisions. And our field folks have a higher degree of confidence in terms of how our assets are positioned, what do all their alternatives look like, how do we make sure we're recovering costs, covering transportation pressure, et cetera. And I think that's part of what you're seeing is, is a higher degree of confidence our team has in the analytics and the tools that we're using to make those decisions.

當然，總是存在丟失音量的風險。我會告訴你，馬克，我特別高興的是，我們的收入管理團隊正在做的事情與運營方面保持一致，並使用我們擁有的一些數據和分析工具，我認為我們正在做很多，更好的決定。我們的現場人員對我們的資產定位方式、他們所有的替代方案是什麼樣的、我們如何確保收回成本、應對運輸壓力等方面更有信心。我認為這是你所看到的一部分，是我們的團隊對我們用來做出這些決定的分析和工具更有信心。

Yes. That well-placed asset network, I think, helps ease the conversation because understanding the next best alternative for the customer is one of the fundamental inputs to this insight and our ability to execute.

是的。我認為，這個位置合適的資產網絡有助於簡化對話，因為了解對客戶來說下一個最佳選擇是這種洞察力和我們執行能力的基本輸入之一。

That's right. I mean your question is really about price elasticity, and Devina is exactly right. It's something we talked about at Investor Day when you talk about having that really, really well-positioned landfill network that's close to the city center, that really provides some protection against price elasticity.

這是正確的。我的意思是你的問題實際上是關於價格彈性的，德維娜是完全正確的。這是我們在投資者日談到的事情，當你談論擁有靠近市中心的真正、非常好的垃圾填埋場網絡時，它確實提供了一些防止價格彈性的保護。

Right. So again, maybe there is no reason why you couldn't be doing, I guess, north of 5% then, based on that. But okay. That's helpful. Maybe just one last one then. Just on the ERP upgrade, again, I kind of -- these typically are -- again, can be pretty big undertakings. So I'm just curious, is sort of a time line around that, and the $40 million, I think, that you quoted, is that a 2020 number? Or is that sort of life of project number?

正確的。所以，再一次，也許沒有理由你不能做，我猜，基於此，然後超過 5%。不過沒關係。這很有幫助。也許只是最後一個。就 ERP 升級而言，我有點——這些通常是——再次，可能是相當大的任務。所以我很好奇，這是一個圍繞它的時間表，我認為你引用的 4000 萬美元是 2020 年的數字嗎？還是項目號的那種生活？

Sure. So you're exactly right, they are significant undertakings, and that's why we haven't taken this lightly. We've planned for it well and ensured that the HR and finance teams are very well coordinated in our execution of the path forward. In terms of the $40 million specifically, that's our 2020 estimate, and we do expect this project to go into 2022 based on our current projections of the time to standardize business processes and definitions in a way that it positions us to implement the new software.

當然。所以你完全正確，它們是重要的事業，這就是為什麼我們沒有掉以輕心。我們已經為此做好了計劃，並確保人力資源和財務團隊在我們執行前進道路時得到很好的協調。就 4000 萬美元而言，這是我們對 2020 年的估計，我們確實希望根據我們目前對時間的預測，該項目將進入 2022 年，以標準化業務流程和定義，使我們能夠實施新軟件。

Okay. And then maybe if I can ask a last one then. Just on the RIN and the commodity price. I get there's tough comps. I think you mentioned the upside from the fee-for-service model. The RIN pricing has done a little better year-to-date. I'm just -- again, in the guide, is the assumption that there's still sort of a headwind for 2020? Or is it sort of a net neutral sort of 0 to EBITDA year-over-year?

好的。然後也許我可以問最後一個。就在 RIN 和商品價格上。我知道那裡有艱難的比賽。我想你提到了按服務收費模式的好處。今年迄今，RIN 定價略好一些。我只是 - 再一次，在指南中，是否假設 2020 年仍然存在逆風？或者它是一種淨中性類型的 0 到 EBITDA 同比？

Yes. Mark, I would tell you net neutral. I think you heard in my prepared remarks, that there's been a little fluctuation in commodity pricing. Q4 was obviously the softest quarter. We feel confident we can make that up, and that'll be kind of net neutral. It could be a bit of a tailwind, but we're kind of staying neutral there. And on the RIN pricing, same thing. I mean, those rates today are a little bit elevated from where they closed the year out, but we're not banking on that because that obviously has demonstrated its ability to change overnight.

是的。馬克，我會告訴你網絡中立。我想你在我準備好的發言中聽到了，商品價格出現了一些波動。第四季度顯然是最疲軟的季度。我們相信我們可以彌補這一點，這將是一種網絡中立的。這可能有點順風，但我們在那裡保持中立。在 RIN 定價上，同樣如此。我的意思是，今天的利率比去年年底的利率略高，但我們並不指望這一點，因為這顯然已經證明了它有能力在一夜之間改變。

Thank you for your questions. I'll be turning the call back to our speakers for closing remarks.

謝謝你的問題。我將把電話轉回給我們的發言人以作結束語。

All right. Thank you. So really just in closing, I want to repeat something that I've said many times, and that is that at this company, and honestly, in the industry as a whole, we truly are blessed to have the hard-working people that we have doing their jobs day in and day out to make this all possible. We're really here just reporting the great numbers that they produce every day. And so I just want to say thank you again to them. We're extremely grateful. Thank you all for joining us, and enjoy the rest of your week.

好的。謝謝。所以最後，我想重複我說過很多次的話，那就是在這家公司，老實說，在整個行業，我們真的很幸運能擁有我們勤奮工作的員工日復一日地完成他們的工作，使這一切成為可能。我們真的在這裡只是報告他們每天產生的大量數據。所以我只想再次感謝他們。我們萬分感激。感謝大家加入我們，祝您度過餘下的一周。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect. Have a great day.

女士們，先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。祝你有美好的一天。