John Wiley & Sons Inc (WLY) 2014 Q3 法說會逐字稿

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Good day, ladies and gentlemen.

And welcome to the John Wiley & Sons' third-quarter earnings conference call.

Just a reminder: today's conference is being recorded.

For opening remarks and introductions, I will turn the call over to Wiley's Director of Investor Relations, Mr. Brian Campbell.

Please go ahead, sir.

Thank you.

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for participating in our call today.

Before introducing Steve Smith, President and Chief Executive Officer, I would like to remind you that this call is being recorded and may include forward-looking statements.

You should not rely on such statements, as actual results may differ materially and are subject to factors that are discussed in detail in the Company's 10-K and 10-Q filings with the SEC.

The Company does not undertake any obligation to update or revise forward-looking statements to reflect subsequent events or circumstances.

For those who prefer to listen to the call over the phone, but would still like to view the slides, we recommend clicking on the gears icon, located on the lower portion of the left-hand side window, and selecting Live Phone.

This will eliminate any details -- delays you may experience in viewing the slide transitions, as well as remove any potential background noise should you ask a question on the call.

A copy of this presentation will be available on our Investor Relations page at the conclusion of this call.

Thank you.

I'd now like to turn the call over to Steve.

Good morning.

In addition to Brian, I'm joined by John Kritzmacher, Wiley's Chief Financial Officer.

Our results for the quarter are in line with expectations.

Modest revenue growth was driven by steady improvement in journals and strong growth in professional education solutions, while the transition from print books to alternatives continued.

Adjusted earnings per share was roughly evening with prior-year, with adjusted revenue and margin growth, restructuring and other savings, and lower income taxes offset by higher incentive compensation accruals, a 4% increase in technology expense, and a lower property tax incentive.

The property tax incentive is related to our corporate headquarters in Hoboken, New Jersey.

Our restructuring program continued to progress as expected.

Through the nine months of the year, we have developed and approved plans to achieve $75 million of the $80 million in expected run rate savings, starting in May.

To date, we have recorded $52 million in restructuring charges.

From this point forward, unless otherwise noted, I will exclude the impact of foreign exchange and the divested consumer business when commenting on all revenue variances in order to give a clear measure of operational performance.

Also, note that the adjusted contribution to profit, adjusted operating income, and adjusted EPS metrics exclude all restructuring charges, asset impairment charges, gains on the sale of and operating results from the divested consumer publishing program, and deferred tax benefits arising from the significant rate changes in the UK.

Third-quarter adjusted revenue of $458 million was up 1%.

Research journals, including both subscription business and author-funded open access, continued to show steady growth.

Other contributors to growth included online books in Research, digital books and online training and assessment in Professional Development, and WileyPLUS and online program management in Education.

The first nine months, Wiley adjusted revenue was up 4%.

Adjusted operating income fell 3% in the quarter to $78 million.

Contributions from revenue growth in restructuring and other cost savings were offset by higher incentive accruals, an increase in technology expense, and a lower property tax incentive.

Adjusted operating income through the first nine months of the year was roughly even with prior-year period.

Adjusted EPS for the quarter was even with prior-year at $0.93, but up 4% for the nine months.

Research revenue was up 3% in the quarter, to $249 million, and also up 3% year-to-date.

Journal subscription revenue grew 7% in the quarter and 4% for the nine months.

Note that some of the third-quarter performance was due to favorable production timing, growth in journal subscriptions was accompanied by rapid complementary growth in author-funded open access, which tripled over prior to $4 million for the quarter.

We are encouraged by 2014 calendar year journal subscription billings, which are up 4% as of January 31, with 81% of targeted full-year business closed.

Subscription growth rates for the full calendar year are expected to be in the low single digits, similar to the growth rates reported over the last two years.

In our research books business, the transition from print books to alternatives continued with a 16% decline in print and a 12% increase in digital.

For the year, print books are down 11%, while digital books are up 25%.

We signed two new society partners in the quarter, with combined annual revenue of $2 million.

We also renewed 50 society agreements, which are expected to generate $19 million per year.

Eight society agreements were lost, worth $5 million annually.

Nearly all of that was from one -- from the expiration of one large society partnership.

For the year, however, our society business experienced a net revenue gain, with new business signed worth $11 million annually and expired partnerships worth $7 million.

In January, Wiley announced a partnership with technology company Knode to provide customized portals to learned societies another academic organizations worldwide.

Wiley's cloud-based portal is populated with more than 20 million documents and millions of expert profiles.

The alliance will allow researchers to find experts, identify and connect with collaborators, and promote their expertise to the world.

Adjusted contribution to profit after shared services allocations improved 2% to $69 million, with revenue growth and restructuring savings partially offset by higher society journal costs and accrued incentives.

Year-to-date contribution to profit was up 5%.

Adjusted professional development revenue fell 5% to $94 million and is down 1% for the nine months.

Print books were down 9% due to softness in the technology category; the result of market weakness related to a decline in commercial software launches and the discontinuation of low-margin, non-divested consumer titles.

Also contributing to performance was a $2 million favorable impact in the prior year, related to hurricane Sandy shipment delays.

Online training and assessment continued to show strong growth, driven by test preparation and workforce assessment.

In January, Wiley acquired the assets of Elan Guides, a certified financial analyst test preparation company.

The acquisition will allow us to extend our test preparation platform currently marketed to CPA candidates to the certified financial analyst community, driving significant future growth opportunities.

Finally, the recent portfolio changes and new product developments are resulting in improvements in profitability.

Adjusted contribution to profit for the quarter after shared service expense allocations grew 21% to $12 million and is up 48% year to date.

Performance was driven by restructuring savings and higher-margin digital revenue.

Education revenue was roughly flat with prior-year at $115 million, but is up by 12% year-to-date.

Print textbook decline reflects the continuing transition to alternatives, which was further compounded by timing impacts, including prior-year Sandy-related shipment delays which shifted $2 million of second-quarter revenue in 2013 into the third quarter, as well as earlier ordering patterns from Australia put advanced revenue from this quarter into our second quarter.

Strong revenue growth in key areas, including the WileyPLUS course management platform and online program management from Deltak, offset a decline in both print and digital textbooks.

The WileyPLUS integrated learning solution, with revenue growth of 20%, is showing terrific momentum and now represents around 16% of total Education revenue.

Deltak added two partners in the quarter, for a total of 36 partners.

Total programs have now grown to 165, 120 of which are revenue generating and 45 are in development.

Deltak's revenue growth this quarter was impacted by an unfavorable comparison to prior year.

Third-quarter 2013 results for Deltak included an extra week, due to the closing of the acquisition just prior to the end of the second quarter in 2013.

Excluding this extra week, Deltak grew 20% over the prior year for the quarter.

The decline in digital textbooks for education can be attributed to the weakened enrollment at for-profit institutions.

Note that less than 6% of our total educational revenue comes from for-profit institutions, down from over 10% in FY12.

Year-to-date, print textbook alternatives including WileyPLUS, digital books, and binder and custom products are offsetting the print textbook decline on a revenue performance basis.

[Global] education adjusted contribution to profit, after shared services allocations fell 9% in the quarter to $31 million, reflecting changes in revenue mix, including the investment in online program management and hiring accrued incentive costs, which offset restructuring savings.

Year-to-date adjusted contribution to profit was up 2%.

Technology expense increased 4% over prior year, as we continued to invest in new technology-enabled services and systems.

Investment in technology is expected to be up slightly more than 10% for the full year.

Distribution expense declined again in the quarter as a result of lower print volumes and restructuring savings, while finance and other administration costs were up, due to higher accrued incentives and the reduction of the property tax incentive related to our New Jersey headquarters.

Turning now to our balance sheet -- net debt fell by $131 million compared to the prior-year period.

Our balance sheet continues to be strong and offers significant flexibility to invest in our transformation.

Our trailing 12-month net debt to EBITDA ratio was 0.8 at the end of the third quarter.

Free cash flow in the nine months is essentially even with prior-year, at $85 million.

Lower cash collections and higher payments related to restructuring program offset lower German tax appeal deposits versus prior year.

As a reminder, Wiley is appealing a German tax decision but was required to make deposits before filing the appeal.

We made $30 million in deposits in FY13, compared to $10 million this current year.

We have made all required deposits to date.

Also, we believe the outcome will be a positive one.

Total capital expenditures are down $8 million year-to-date.

CapEx includes composition costs related to the development of manuscripts and PP&E, which includes technology development.

Finally, for the quarter, Wiley bought back 375,000 shares in the quarter at an average price of $53.30 per share.

At quarter end, there were approximately 3.7 million authorized shares remaining in the program.

Our broad-based cost restructuring is nearing its completion.

As a reminder, we expect to achieve $80 million of run rate savings starting in FY15.

More than 50% of the $80 million will fall to the bottom line.

The rest will be invested back into the business to fund high-growth opportunities.

As of January 31, we had developed, approved, and initiated plans to achieve approximately $75 million of the $80 million.

We have taken nearly $52 million in charges since the program began in January and expect another $10 million in the fourth quarter.

The charges cover severance, consulting fees, and facility relocation.

For the first nine months, we realized restructuring savings of approximately $23 million.

And other initiatives, including improvements in our procurement practices, contributed an additional $8 million in savings.

Our favorable speed in executing the restructuring program will contribute to a solid finish to the fiscal year.

In summary, we continue to be pleased with performance for the nine months of the year, particularly with the steady growth in journals, the solutions business in Professional Development and Education, and digital books across all three segments.

Both revenue and EPS are tracking well against our guidance.

Given our nine-month results and what we see in the fourth quarter, we are reaffirming our fiscal 2014 revenue guidance of low single-digit adjusted revenue growth.

In addition, based upon the favorable pace of our restructuring initiative, we are confident that our EPS performance will track to the high end of our $2.85 to $2.95 EPS guidance range.

With that as background, we welcome your comments and questions.

(Operator Instructions)

Daniel Moore, CJS Securities.

Good morning.

Print book sales fell sharply in the quarter.

But still, obviously, in line with expectations.

But a very solid quarter.

Have we now reached the point where swings in text sales are much more manageable?

And you can grow through them -- grow through those declines, given strength in the other segments of the business?

Dan, I may have missed a word.

Did you say tech or text sales?

Text.

Text.

So in the education sector in particular.

Yes.

We believe that we're seeing a very strong pick-up, particularly, of the alternative formats in digital for the quarter.

And we reported that decline in digital books.

We think that's an anomaly for the quarter.

And you should look at the full-year results in order to look at the performance of digital books overall.

But with the strength of WileyPLUS and the strength of custom publishing, we're seeing those alternative models reaching a point where they can certainly compensate for the rate of decline in traditional, print textbook sales.

That's helpful.

The Deltak, you said, would be diluted by about $0.10 this year.

What are your expectations as we start to look out to FY15 for earnings contribution?

[For that] -- I'll let John get that.

We're going to fight with each other to answer the question.

(Laughter)

So, we'll leave expectations for 2015 until we get to the end of the year and start talking about our guidance overall.

And then we can give you a bit more about our expectations, specific to Deltak, at that time.

I would say though, we had anticipated that Deltak would be diluted upon the order of $0.10 per share in our FY14.

But we are tracking slightly favorable to that.

So, I would flag that.

And we'll provide more about our expectations for 2015 when we get to the end of the year.

Okay.

I'm going to try one more on that front, and we'll see how we do.

You said over half of the $80 million cost savings is expected to improve earnings in FY15.

This is a point worth clarifying, because I think there's a lot of confusion of there.

If we conservatively assume $40 million is earmarked for earnings enhancements, how much of that $40 million is already in the numbers in 2014?

In other words, if we hold all else equal, should we assume $40 million uplift in pretax income next year, or is it much more conservative than that?

Well, I think the uplift for next year is a factor of how we end up concluding this year.

So, I'd -- we'll wait, again, until we get to the end of the year.

But I would note -- to be specific around our progress on restructuring -- we have said that the speed at which we are executing our restructuring plans is somewhat favorable.

And so, whereas we had previously said that we would realize savings of approximately one third of the $80 million run rate, inside of our FY14, we've already gotten to about $23 million cumulatively.

And the third of $80 million would've been about $27 million.

So we're clearly tracking a bit ahead of that.

And, therefore, delivering more savings inside of the year.

But again, I want to point out while we are on a faster track to realize savings, our destination for 2015 continues to be the same; $80 million run rate savings with at least half of that falling through to the bottom line.

That's helpful.

I'll jump back in queue.

Thank you.

Ian Whittaker, Liberum.

Thanks very much.

Two broad questions.

One, just on journals.

You've had a good quarter and a good nine months.

Would it be fair to say that there's not really been any change in the overall market?

That the structural concerns that people had about open access haven't really come through?

That you've still got moderate price inflation in the US, and you've got good growth in the US, and you've got good growth in the [faster grow] markets?

Second of all, on Education.

It's quite interesting to hear your comments.

That you now -- pretty much -- suspect that the worst is over and [addition of other services can offset] print declines.

It certainly seems, perhaps, a more reassuring message than what we've heard, for example, a few weeks back, that was suggesting that 2014 is going to be a very difficult year.

Is there anything in the mix of your businesses that insulates you, perhaps, from some of the issues that they're facing?

Your first question, on journals.

I think, it's certainly true to say that our journal business remains stable and robust.

And although we saw some challenges, particularly in Europe, related mostly to budgeted concerns rather than structural issues relating to open access, particularly after the last economic downturn, the demand remains really strong for the content.

The demand for the publishing service remains very strong.

We continue to invest to add value to that content, to make it more valuable to researchers, as well as to authors.

And so, that business is holding up very well.

And, we believe, will continue to hold up well for as long as library budgets continue to grow, even at modest levels.

And there are further opportunities to invest in the relationships and the content around our research journals to generate new revenue streams, such as author-funded open access, which today is actually contributing to the overall growth of our journals business.

It feels rough to us, notwithstanding that the continuing debate around access and the best way to widen access, that the world recognizes the value of what research journal publishers bring to the table.

On Education, I don't know.

I'm not going to comment on [Pearson's own] projections around this.

We have invested heavily in digitizing our content in that -- in the Education business.

In particular, we've put a lot of effort behind developing really high-value integrated learning solutions around WileyPLUS.

And that's something which I think is now beginning to pay dividends, as those products and that format really resonates with the marketplace.

There is still, I think, some confusion in the market for print books around blurring of channels, particularly with the development of rental.

But I do feel that we've seen much of the disruption that we're going to get from rental.

It's still a challenging marketplace in 2014.

We certainly know, from looking at market data, that Wiley continues to win market share in the US.

Our aim is to continue to do that by offering products and services that [delight] our customers and that help teachers teach and students learn.

Okay.

That's very clear.

Oh, actually, one follow-up on the rentals.

[Shack] was saying, in their conference call, that they expect price deflation in the textbook market to accelerate in 2014.

I just wondered if you've got any thoughts on that

Well, we've talked about the rapid decline in traditional textbook -- traditional print textbook sales being offset by growth in sales of other formats, including WileyPLUS, digital books, custom, et cetera.

There's no doubt that the first purchase by student, for those alternative formats, is at a much lower price point than the traditional textbook.

Because we're able to offer students more value for their purchase, because those books, or those formats, are not going to find their way back into the used book market.

So, the high price of a traditional print textbook was really a phenomenon in the industry designed to offset the fact that you get to sell those once, but they turn two or three times more in the used book market or through the rental market in following years.

So, there is price deflation, in terms of what the student pays.

But our thesis is that, by offering more value to students, we can sell something to every student every semester and not see the heavy attrition that comes after the first year for a traditional print textbook model.

Okay.

That's great.

Thank you very much.

David Pang, Stifel.

(Technical difficulty) Implied guidance -- is that the fourth quarter is going to be down slightly.

Can you discuss the puts and takes for the fourth quarter?

And secondly, when you look at your portfolio of assets, is there anything that you feel you need to add?

Thanks.

David, your line is not altogether clear.

I think the first question, you were asking about the fourth quarter.

With a question whether our guidance implied that the fourth quarter will be a down quarter.

And I didn't catch the --

Yes.

Can you hear me a little better?

Yes, that's better.

So -- go ahead.

So David, it's John.

With regard to your question about our guidance for the quarter to go and whether that implies the fourth quarter is down.

The trends in year over year that we see for the fourth quarter are very similar to what we've described during the course of this year and including the third quarter results.

In particular, we will continue to see building restructuring savings that are offset by -- are largely offset by increased comp accrual and investment in the business.

And you recall, in the year ago period, we had a very low comp accrual.

So, similar to this quarter, we'll expect the comp accrual versus the prior year to be up $8 million or so on a year-over-year basis.

And then, the improvements that we will see through low single-digit revenue growth may be offset by some other costs, including, I would note, that in the year ago period, we had a lower effective tax rate due to some true ups in terms of sources of our income over the course of the year.

So, there's mitigating factors, but it's a similar story around savings from restructuring being offset by the comp accrual and reinvestment in the business and then some other puts and takes around the margin growth and other changes.

In this case, you should anticipate there's a different effective tax rate for the quarter.

Okay.

[What was your other question?]

On the acquisitions?

On the acquisition pipeline, when you review your portfolio of assets, is there anything that you guys feel you need?

In our investor conference back in September, if you recall, David, we made an [aspirational] statement that we'd like to drive the Company towards 25% of total revenues coming from solutions and services business by FY17.

In recognition that those businesses in areas like talent management, career services, educational solutions, certification and test preparation.

Those businesses have, in their very nature, a higher potential revenue growth than some of the still very attractive and profitable businesses that form our base business.

So, we've made some, I think, strong indicative acquisitions and investments, in those spaces over the last couple of years, that give a good signal of where we think this Company needs to head.

And if we can find additional opportunities -- and we expect and hope that we will -- that have sound economics that fit with our strategy of growing our solutions-based businesses, in areas that appeal to our existing customer base in Research, Education, and Professional Practice, then we'll certainly use the power of our balance sheet to go ahead and make further acquisitions.

Okay.

Thank you.

Mark Braley, Deutsche Bank.

Good afternoon.

Just a couple of questions, both on Deltak.

Can you give us a feel for what are the pricing trends in that business in terms of your share of the tuition fees?

I think, you've previously talked about 40% to 60%.

[Pearson,] when they talk about (Inaudible), talk about a 50% figure.

I'm wondering whether -- do you expect that to move lower over time, as the universities get a bit smarter about this?

And as -- a few years down the line, business comes up for [renewal], are they going to effectively try and take some of the value back in?

The other question is, you said that you were tracking slightly favorably against the $0.10 dilution guidance [re-Deltak].

Could you give us a feel for why that is?

Is it that your original $0.10 guidance was deliberately a bit conservative, or have you actually grown in that business a bit slower than you anticipated when you outlined the $0.10?

Or is it something else?

So -- I'm sorry.

Is it Mark, or Mike?

Mark.

Mark, we don't disclose our pricing strategies.

I don't think it would be appropriate for me to comment, other than to say that the 40% to 60% that we talked about previously still remains largely true.

This is a complex business.

There are different relationships, with different partners, who have different criteria.

And we look at each relationship in the round.

So we look at the power of the brand of the institution, the level and value of services that each member of the partnership offers, because we don't -- they are not always exactly the same in terms of what's offered.

And come up with a competitive offer that drives an attractive return for Wiley and Deltak, but that also serves the partners needs, in terms of really helping them expand their reach and create new revenue-generating programs.

The $0.10 dilution guidance, I'll let John talk, briefly, to that.

You know, I would say we were probably somewhat conservative around our expectations, in terms of profit impact for the year.

As we made our way to year, though, I would say that our progress, in terms of investing and growing the business, has been in line with our expectation.

As Steve commented earlier, we're now up to 36 partners.

So, we've done an excellent job of adding partners to the business.

And we're up to 165 programs.

I think, when we acquired Deltak a little over a year ago, we were at 107 programs.

So 107, now up to 165.

So our progress around attracting partners in programs has gone quite well.

So, I would say we're tracking in line with what we expected to do, at this point.

Just one follow-up, in the quarter, you did have quite a big step up in the number of Deltak programs base generating revenue and [implicit the] total number.

So you've maintained your backlog there.

Did -- is there a single university that you -- or partner -- that you can call out there?

That was relevant in that good move during the quarter?

I'm sorry.

There isn't anything that we can disclose in the quarter, on an individual partner basis.

Okay.

I understand.

Thank you.

Thank you.

(Operator Instructions)

Daniel Moore, CJS Securities.

Thank you again.

Just curious -- looking at the individual sectors, what's happening in engineering and computer science?

Is there any increased competition, or is print text simply falling off a little bit more significantly or quickly in that segment?

So Dan, I may not be able to put my finger on an immediate answer to that question.

The performance of individual categories can sometimes be driven from year to year by the new title output.

And particularly, when we have big franchise products, they can swing the overall category performance.

So that's certainly true in our accounting program year on year.

Engineering and computer science, for Wiley, is an area where we publish mostly at the upper end of the undergraduate curriculum.

It's also the area where we've had the highest penetration of our sales into markets in Asia and the developing world.

So some of that category performance could be driven by changes in the performance of those programs in Asia, related to the [Kirtsaeng] judgment last year.

But I wouldn't want to -- and I am speculating a little bit about that, although I suspect that's probably got something to do with it.

I wouldn't really want to go any further than that at this point.

But if you'd like us to find you the answer, we can certainly -- Brian can provide you that in the next few days.

Okay, thank you.

Just one more -- balance sheet, obviously, continues to get better.

Leverage is declining.

Talk about, maybe, the landscape for acquisitions in the pipeline.

You've been very successful over the last few years.

Are sellers for the types of opportunities you're looking for rational?

You know, if I could -- just a little bit of a sense of the pipeline of opportunities of the next year or so.

Some of them are rational.

So we are focusing our attention on those with whom we believe we can come to a deal.

The pipeline remains strong.

Things move in and out of the pipeline.

We're still very focused on securing assets and capabilities that can really help Wiley achieve its longer-term strategic goals.

And to find businesses that can raise the performance of Wiley in total, by tapping into customer segments, content areas, where we already have the penetration and adding additional value to the content and relationships we have today.

There's nothing to -- there's nothing specific to say about that today.

But it's an area where we still believe there are opportunities.

And we expect to be able to report on some progress there at some point in the coming quarter.

Very good.

Thank you.

With no other questions in queue, Mr. Smith, I will turn it back to you for closing remarks.

Well, we thank you for joining us on the call today.

And we look forward to updating you on our fourth-quarter and full-year results in June.

Thank you.

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's conference.

We thank you for your participation.