惠而浦 (WHR) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to Whirlpool Corporation's third quarter 2024 earnings call.

早安，歡迎參加惠而浦公司 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。

Today's call is being recorded.

今天的通話正在錄音。

Joining me today are Marc Bitzer, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Jim Peters, our Chief Financial and Administrative Officer.

今天加入我的還有我們的董事長兼執行長 Marc Bitzer；以及我們的財務和行政官 Jim Peters。

Our remarks today track with the presentation available on the Investors section of our website at whirlpoolcorp.com.

我們今天的言論與我們網站 Whirlpoolcorp.com 投資者部分的簡報一致。

Before we begin, I want to remind you that as we conduct this call, we will be making forward-looking statements to assist you in better understanding Whirlpool Corporation's future expectations.

在開始之前，我想提醒您，在我們進行本次電話會議時，我們將做出前瞻性陳述，以幫助您更好地了解惠而浦公司的未來期望。

Our actual results could differ materially from these statements due to many factors discussed in our latest 10-K, 10-Q and other periodic reports.

由於我們最新的 10-K、10-Q 和其他定期報告中討論的許多因素，我們的實際結果可能與這些陳述有重大差異。

We also want to remind you that today's presentation includes the non-GAAP measures outlined in further detail at the beginning of our earnings presentation.

我們也想提醒您，今天的演示包括我們在收益演示開始時進一步詳細概述的非公認會計準則衡量標準。

We believe these measures are important indicators of our operations as they exclude items that may not be indicative of our results from ongoing business operations.

我們相信這些指標是我們營運的重要指標，因為它們排除了可能無法表明我們持續業務營運結果的項目。

We also think the adjusted measures will provide you with a better baseline for analyzing trends in our ongoing business operations.

我們也認為調整後的措施將為您提供更好的基準來分析我們正在進行的業務營運的趨勢。

Listeners are directed to the supplemental information package posted on the Investor Relations section of our website for the reconciliation of non-GAAP items to the most directly comparable GAAP measures.

聽眾可閱讀我們網站投資者關係部分發布的補充資訊包，以將非公認會計準則項目與最直接可比較的公認會計準則衡量指標進行核對。

(Event Instructions) With that, I'll turn the call over to Marc.

（活動說明）這樣，我會將電話轉給 Marc。

Thanks, Scott, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝斯科特，大家早安。

In the third quarter, we again delivered global sequential EBIT margin expansion, largely in line with our expectations.

第三季度，我們再次實現了全球息稅前利潤率環比擴張，基本上符合我們的預期。

I'm pleased with our team's execution of our operational priorities, delivering 50 basis points of sequential global margin expansion.

我對我們的團隊執行我們的營運優先事項感到滿意，實現了全球利潤率連續成長 50 個基點。

Our North American business even achieved 100 basis points of sequential margin expansion led by our previously announced pricing actions.

在我們先前宣布的定價行動的帶動下，我們的北美業務甚至實現了 100 個基點的連續利潤率擴張。

Before I expand further into the results, I want to acknowledge what has been and will, at least in the near term, remain a challenging macro environment in the US Consumer confidence remains low and is impacted by the uncertainty ahead of the upcoming elections.

在進一步闡述結果之前，我想承認，至少在短期內，美國的宏觀環境仍然充滿挑戰，消費者信心仍然較低，並受到即將舉行的選舉之前的不確定性的影響。

Despite the recent interest rate cut by the Fed, the US housing market is still constrained by elevated mortgage rates.

儘管聯準會近期降息，但美國房地產市場仍受到抵押貸款利率上升的限制。

As a result of this environment, demand in the US has shifted significantly toward lower-margin replacement-driven purchases.

由於這種環境，美國的需求已顯著轉向利潤率較低的替代驅動型購買。

And the higher-margin discretionary demand continues to be weak due to historically low existing home sales.

由於現房銷售處於歷史低位，利潤率較高的可自由支配需求持續疲軟。

Although the timing of the US housing recovery is still uncertain, we are confident that the industry will have a multiyear recovery with the underlying housing fundamentals remaining strong.

儘管美國房地產復甦的時間仍不確定，但我們相信，隨著住房基本面依然強勁，該行業將實現多年復甦。

We're well positioned to benefit from this eventual housing rebound.

我們處於有利地位，可以從最終的房地產反彈中受益。

While we await an anticipated multiyear US housing recovery, we are focused on executing our operational priorities.

在我們等待預期的多年美國房地產復甦的同時，我們專注於執行我們的營運優先事項。

We delivered ongoing EPS of $3.43 supported by our pricing actions, cost takeout and a more favorable adjusted effective tax rate.

在我們的定價行動、成本削減和更優惠的調整後有效稅率的支持下，我們持續實現了 3.43 美元的每股盈餘。

Our strong working capital management improved inventory, generating approximately $130 million of cash in the third quarter.

我們強大的營運資金管理改善了庫存，在第三季產生了約 1.3 億美元的現金。

We expect to deliver approximately $500 million free cash flow in 2024.

我們預計 2024 年將實現約 5 億美元的自由現金流。

As a reminder, year-to-date free cash flow was negatively impacted by nonrecurring cash outflows associated with the Europe transaction of $250 million to $300 million.

需要提醒的是，年初至今的自由現金流受到與歐洲交易相關的 2.5 億至 3 億美元非經常性現金流出的負面影響。

These cash outflows were onetime in nature and will no longer impact our results in 2025, structurally strengthening our free cash flow delivery going forward.

這些現金流出本質上是一次性的，將不再影響我們 2025 年的業績，從結構上加強我們未來的自由現金流交付。

Our capital allocation priorities are unchanged, and our free cash flow delivery enables us to further reduce our debt levels and continue to return cash to shareholders.

我們的資本配置優先順序保持不變，我們的自由現金流交付使我們能夠進一步降低債務水準並繼續向股東返還現金。

We paid dividends of $1.75 per share in the third quarter and declared $1.75 per share in the fourth quarter, returning approximately $400 million to shareholders this year.

我們在第三季支付了每股 1.75 美元的股息，並在第四季度宣布了每股 1.75 美元的股息，今年向股東返還了約 4 億美元。

Turning to slide 6.

轉到投影片 6。

I will review the third quarter ongoing EBIT margin drivers.

我將回顧第三季持續的息稅前利潤率驅動因素。

Sequentially, price/mix delivered 75 basis points margin expansion, driven by the pricing actions in North America.

隨後，在北美定價行動的推動下，價格/組合帶來了 75 個基點的利潤率擴張。

Year-over-year, price/mix still impacted margin unfavorably by 125 basis points.

與去年同期相比，價格/組合仍對利潤率產生 125 個基點的不利影響。

We saw the balance of sales shift out of cooking and dish, which tend to be our strongest MDA margin categories into replacement-focused laundry and refrigeration categories.

我們看到銷售平衡從烹飪和菜餚（這往往是我們 MDA 利潤率最高的類別）轉向以更換為重點的洗衣和冷藏類別。

The heavy replacement market in the US unfavorably impacted product mix in the third quarter.

美國市場的大量換機對第三季的產品結構產生了不利影響。

Our cost takeout actions delivered 25 basis points of sequential margin expansion and 50 basis points year-over-year.

我們的成本削減行動使利潤率較上季成長 25 個基點，較去年同期成長 50 個基點。

This was led by our fully implemented organization simplification while raw materials, as expected, were essentially unchanged.

這是由於我們全面實施了組織簡化，而原材料正如預期的那樣基本上沒有變化。

Currency negatively impacted margins sequentially and year-over-year as the Brazilian real and Mexican peso experienced some weakening relative to US dollar.

由於巴西雷亞爾和墨西哥比索相對於美元有所走弱，貨幣對利潤率連續和同比產生了負面影響。

The European transaction impacted the third quarter negatively by 25 basis points due to the equity and affiliates impact from Beko Europe BV.

由於 Beko Europe BV 的股權和附屬公司影響，歐洲交易對第三季產生了 25 個基點的負面影響。

This negative impact was driven by the weak macro environment in Europe and by integration-related efforts.

這種負面影響是由歐洲疲弱的宏觀環境和一體化相關努力所造成的。

Ultimately, we are pleased to have delivered 50 basis points sequential margin expansion.

最終，我們很高興實現了 50 個基點的連續利潤率擴張。

And now, I will turn it over to Jim to review our segment results and full year guidance.

現在，我將把它交給吉姆來審查我們的部門業績和全年指導。

Thanks, Marc.

謝謝，馬克。

Good morning, everyone.

大家早安。

Turning to slide 7, I'll review third quarter results for our MDA North America business.

轉向幻燈片 7，我將回顧我們的 MDA 北美業務第三季的業績。

Net sales were down 4% year-over-year, driven by unfavorable price mix as a result of the strong replacement environment and weak discretionary demand.

由於強勁的替代環境和疲軟的可自由支配需求導致不利的價格組合，導致淨銷售額年減 4%。

We are seeing further deterioration in the underlying discretionary demand than what we experienced in the first half of 2024.

我們發現潛在的可自由支配需求比 2024 年上半年進一步惡化。

However, price/mix improved significantly compared to last quarter due to our pricing actions.

然而，由於我們的定價行動，價格/組合與上季相比顯著改善。

We delivered margin improvement with our pricing actions and our cost takeout program, which is expected to deliver approximately $300 million globally for the full year.

我們透過定價行動和成本削減計劃實現了利潤率的提高，預計全年將在全球實現約 3 億美元的收入。

Our actions delivered 100 basis points of sequential EBIT margin expansion.

我們的行動使息稅前利潤率比上季擴大了 100 個基點。

Overall, the segment delivered 7.3% EBIT margin for the quarter.

總體而言，該部門本季的息稅前利潤率為 7.3%。

And we are very pleased with the margin expansion of approximately 170 basis points delivered since the first quarter.

自第一季以來，我們對利潤率擴大約 170 個基點感到非常滿意。

We continue to focus on margin expansion as we head into the fourth quarter and expect cost takeout opportunities to support further margin progress.

進入第四季度，我們將繼續關注利潤率擴張，並預計成本削減機會將支持利潤率進一步提高。

Turning to slide 8.

轉到投影片 8。

I'm excited to take a moment to showcase a few of our new product launches.

我很高興能花點時間展示我們推出的一些新產品。

Product innovation is critical to enable our future growth and margin expansion expectations.

產品創新對於實現我們未來的成長和利潤擴張預期至關重要。

In MDA North America, we had two notable product launches in our laundry category.

在 MDA 北美，我們在洗衣類別中推出了兩款引人注目的產品。

Our newest Whirlpool brand laundry pair fights common cause of front-load odor with the FreshFlow Vent System.

我們最新的惠而浦品牌洗衣套裝透過 FreshFlow 通風系統消除了前置式異味的常見原因。

The innovative new FreshFlow Vent System is the first fan-powered system designed to help keep your clothes and washer fresh.

創新的 FreshFlow 通風系統是第一個風扇驅動的系統，旨在幫助您的衣服和洗衣機保持新鮮。

With the successful launch of Maytag Pet Pro top load laundry in 2023, we've brought the winning and innovative Pet Pro filter to the front load.

隨著 Maytag Pet Pro 頂部裝載式洗衣房於 2023 年成功推出，我們將屢獲殊榮的創新 Pet Pro 過濾器引入了前裝載式洗衣機。

The Pet Pro Option utilizes the Pet Pro Filter lifting and removing pet hair from clothes for a clean you can see.

Pet Pro 選項利用 Pet Pro 濾鏡去除衣服上的寵物毛髮，以實現可見的清潔。

Recently, KitchenAid launched the brand's first four-door refrigerator.

最近，KitchenAid推出了該品牌的首款四門冰箱。

The KitchenAid refrigerator has a modern esthetic with sections to keep fresh and frozen ingredients organized and easy to locate.

KitchenAid 冰箱具有現代美感，其分區可讓新鮮和冷凍食材井然有序且易於找到。

The four-door design, combined with the storage flexibility, lets consumers customize the refrigerator to their needs.

四門設計與儲存靈活性相結合，讓消費者可以根據自己的需求定製冰箱。

These innovative new products demonstrate our commitment to being the best kitchen and laundry company, improving life at home for our consumers, strengthening our leading position in North America.

這些創新的新產品體現了我們致力於成為最好的廚房和洗衣公司、改善消費者的家庭生活、鞏固我們在北美的領先地位的承諾。

As we look forward to 2025, we have an even stronger lineup of new product introductions that we expect will positively impact price mix and share.

展望 2025 年，我們將推出更強大的新產品陣容，預計將對價格組合和份額產生積極影響。

Turning to slide 9.

轉到投影片 9。

I'll review the very strong results for our MDA Latin America business.

我將回顧我們 MDA 拉丁美洲業務的強勁業績。

This segment continued to demonstrate strong net sales growth of 9% year-over-year, excluding currency, driven by industry in both Brazil and Mexico.

在巴西和墨西哥工業的推動下，該細分市場的淨銷售額持續強勁成長，年增 9%（不計貨幣因素）。

We delivered a solid EBIT margin of 6.9% in the quarter, with 110 basis points of sequential margin expansion from improved price mix.

本季我們實現了 6.9% 的穩定息稅前利潤率，由於價格組合的改善，利潤率環比擴大了 110 個基點。

We expect sustained solid EBIT margins for the full year as we focus on continued growth and price mix improvement.

由於我們專注於持續成長和價格組合改善，我們預計全年息稅前利潤率將保持穩定。

Turning to slide 10, I'll review the results of our MDA Asia business.

轉向幻燈片 10，我將回顧我們 MDA 亞洲業務的結果。

We saw another quarter of double-digit net sales growth of 10% year-over-year, excluding currency.

我們看到另一個季度淨銷售額年增 10%（不包括貨幣因素）兩位數。

Sequentially, sales contracted due to the seasonal decline as we exited the summer period.

隨後，隨著夏季的結束，銷售量因季節性下降而收縮。

Our continued share gains delivered volume growth, and we are pleased with the progress made in the segment.

我們持續的份額成長帶來了銷售的成長，我們對該領域的進展感到滿意。

We delivered 2.9% EBIT margin from improved price/mix and fixed cost leverage.

由於價格/組合的改善和固定成本槓桿，我們實現了 2.9% 的息稅前利潤率。

Turning to slide 11, I'll review the results for our SDA Global business.

轉向幻燈片 11，我將回顧我們 SDA Global 業務的成果。

Net sales decreased 3% year-over-year, impacted by industry declines in the US Strength in our direct-to-consumer business and new product launches were more than offset by a softer industry with weak consumer sentiment.

受美國產業下滑的影響，淨銷售額年減 3%。

We delivered EBIT margin of 14.2% with the quarter impacted by continued marketing investments in our new products.

受新產品持續行銷投資的影響，本季我們的息稅前利潤率為 14.2%。

Our SDA business is well positioned for the holiday season, and we expect sustained strong EBIT margins.

我們的 SDA 業務在假期期間處於有利位置，我們預計息稅前利潤率將持續強勁。

Despite industry softness seen year-to-date, we are confident in delivering the guided net sales growth of approximately 7.5% supported by our new product pipeline.

儘管今年迄今行業疲軟，但我們有信心在新產品線的支持下實現約 7.5% 的指導淨銷售額增長。

Turning to slide 12.

轉到投影片 12。

I'm pleased to review our exciting new line up of KitchenAid small appliances.

我很高興回顧我們令人興奮的 KitchenAid 小家電新系列。

Our iconic KitchenAid stand mixer launched the unique evergreen design, which has been a hit with enthusiast everywhere.

我們標誌性的 KitchenAid 立式攪拌機推出了獨特的常青設計，受到了各地愛好者的歡迎。

We launched new additions to the KitchenAid Go Cordless System, a removable and interchangeable battery powers all KitchenAid Go appliances, providing you with the power you need for every creation, no cord needed.

我們推出了 KitchenAid Go 無線系統的新產品，可拆卸、可互換的電池為所有 KitchenAid Go 電器供電，為您提供每次創作所需的電源，無需電線。

The new top-down chopper, citrus juicer and hand blender with accessories unlock even more possibilities, both inside and out of the kitchen.

新型自上而下切碎機、柑橘榨汁機和手持式攪拌機及其配件可在廚房內外釋放更多可能性。

These new product launches will continue to fuel our growth expectations.

這些新產品的推出將繼續推動我們的成長預期。

On slide 13, let me review our reaffirmed full year guidance.

在投影片 13 上，讓我回顧我們重申的全年指引。

Our net sales guidance of approximately $16.9 billion, alongside approximately 6% full year ongoing EBIT margins are unchanged.

我們的淨銷售額指引約為 169 億美元，全年持續息稅前利潤率約為 6% 不變。

Additionally, we are reaffirming our ongoing earnings per share of approximately $12 and free cash flow guidance of approximately $500 million.

此外，我們重申我們持續的每股盈餘約為 12 美元，自由現金流指引約為 5 億美元。

Our guidance includes updated expectations for our adjusted effective tax rate.

我們的指導包括對調整後的有效稅率的最新預期。

We now expect an adjusted effective full year tax rate of approximately negative 18% to 22%.

我們現在預計調整後的全年有效稅率約為負 18% 至 22%。

We have further refined the estimated benefits of our tax planning strategies since closing the Europe transaction.

自完成歐洲交易以來，我們進一步完善了稅務規劃策略的預期收益。

With the unique tax impacts of the significant legal entity restructuring we were able to execute with the European transaction behind us, we expect our adjusted effective tax rate to be approximately 20% to 25% starting in 2025.

由於我們能夠在歐洲交易的支持下執行重大法人實體重組的獨特稅收影響，我們預計從 2025 年開始，調整後的有效稅率約為 20% 至 25%。

However, our cash tax rate will be significantly lower.

但是，我們的現金稅率將大幅降低。

We are confident that we have the right actions in place and are reaffirming our full year guidance.

我們相信我們已採取正確的行動，並重申我們的全年指導。

Turning to slide 14.

轉到投影片 14。

Let me recap our commitments to our capital allocation priorities.

讓我回顧一下我們對資本配置優先事項的承諾。

We've completed actions to strengthen our balance sheet in 2024.

我們已完成 2024 年強化資產負債表的行動。

In the first quarter, we completed the sale of 24% of Whirlpool of India's outstanding shares, while retaining a majority interest.

第一季度，我們完成了印度惠而浦24%流通股的出售，同時保留了多數股權。

Additionally, the planned divestiture of our Brastemp brand water filtration business in Brazil closed on July 1.

此外，我們計劃剝離巴西 Brastemp 品牌水過濾業務的計畫已於 7 月 1 日結束。

Combined, these two actions generated more than $500 million of cash.

這兩項行動總共產生了超過 5 億美元的現金。

Coupled with our beginning cash on hand of $1.6 billion and free cash flow generation of approximately $500 million, we are well positioned to continue our debt reduction initiatives and pay dividends of approximately $400 million in 2024.

加上我們的期初手頭現金為 16 億美元，自由現金流量約為 5 億美元，我們完全有能力繼續我們的債務削減計劃，並在 2024 年支付約 4 億美元的股息。

With the $500 million of term loan repayment in April, we have made significant debt reduction progress since the acquisition of InSinkErator with approximately $1 billion debt paid down.

隨著 4 月償還了 5 億美元的定期貸款，自收購愛適易以來，我們在債務削減方面取得了重大進展，已償還了約 10 億美元的債務。

Inclusive of the term loan, we have a total of $1.8 billion of current maturities in 2025 with a weighted average interest rate of approximately 6%.

包括定期貸款在內，我們目前在 2025 年到期的貸款總額為 18 億美元，加權平均利率約為 6%。

We expect to pay down a portion of our current maturities and refinance a portion at a lower interest rate in 2025.

我們預計將在 2025 年償還部分當前到期債務，並以較低的利率為一部分進行再融資。

As we look ahead, we have ample space in our flexible debt ladder to optimize our refinancing plans.

展望未來，我們靈活的債務階梯有足夠的空間來優化我們的再融資計劃。

We are fully on track to deliver our 2024 capital allocation priorities and position Whirlpool well to strengthen our balance sheet.

我們完全有望實現 2024 年資本配置優先事項，並使惠而浦處於有利地位，以加強我們的資產負債表。

Now I will turn the call over to Marc.

現在我將把電話轉給馬克。

Thanks, Jim.

謝謝，吉姆。

Turning to slide 15, let me review what you heard today.

轉到投影片 15，讓我回顧一下您今天聽到的內容。

We had a solid quarter and are reiterating our full year guidance.

我們度過了一個穩定的季度，並重申了我們的全年指導。

We are pleased to have delivered sequential margin expansion globally and most importantly, in North America.

我們很高興在全球範圍內實現利潤率連續成長，最重要的是在北美。

We feel good about our pricing actions and cost plans, both of which are on track.

我們對我們的定價行動和成本計劃感到滿意，兩者都步入正軌。

While we continue to navigate a challenging macro environment, we see the housing market clearly positioned for an eventual rebound.

在我們繼續應對充滿挑戰的宏觀環境的同時，我們看到房地產市場顯然已經做好了最終反彈的準備。

US housing market is structurally undersupplied by 3 million to 4 million units.

美國房屋市場結構性供應不足，有300萬至400萬套。

High interest rates are causing a low turnover with existing home sales at multi-decade lows.

高利率導致成交量低，現有房屋銷售處於數十年來的低點。

Home equity values are near all-time highs, meaning homeowners should have confidence in investing in their homes as rates become more favorable.

房屋淨值價值接近歷史最高點，這意味著隨著利率變得更加有利，房主應該對投資房屋充滿信心。

With lower interest rates, this pressure will ease.

隨著利率降低，這種壓力將會減輕。

Our strong position with eight of the top 10 US homebuilders and an exciting new lineup of products positions us well to benefit from housing recovery and improving discretionary demand.

我們在美國十大住宅建築商中的八家中擁有強大的地位，並且擁有令人興奮的新產品系列，使我們能夠從住房復甦和可自由支配需求的改善中受益。

Our teams are executing well, and we are confident in our strategy, which enables us to capitalize on the US housing market recovery that we expect will drive significant benefit for our MDA North America business.

我們的團隊執行良好，我們對我們的策略充滿信心，這使我們能夠利用美國房地產市場的復甦，我們預計這將為我們的 MDA 北美業務帶來顯著的效益。

In the meantime, we're focused on what is within our control.

同時，我們專注於我們控制範圍內的事情。

We have demonstrated the ability to take out costs with $500 million of fixed costs removed from our operating structures since 2019 and remain on track with our expectation for approximately $300 million cost takeout this year.

自 2019 年以來，我們已經展示了削減成本的能力，從我們的營運結構中削減了 5 億美元的固定成本，並繼續按照我們今年削減約 3 億美元成本的預期前進。

We continue to see significant opportunities to optimize costs across our products through input costs, design, manufacturing and supply chain.

我們繼續看到透過投入成本、設計、製造和供應鏈來優化我們產品成本的重大機會。

Overall, we have the right strategy and operational priorities to navigate the challenging environment in our North America business.

總體而言，我們擁有正確的策略和營運優先事項來應對北美業務充滿挑戰的環境。

SDA and the international businesses have a long runway for growth and continue to be very important to our overall portfolio.

SDA 和國際業務有很長的成長空間，對我們的整體投資組合仍然非常重要。

We are focused on reducing our debt levels while returning cash to shareholders.

我們致力於降低債務水平，同時向股東返還現金。

We're confident in our strategy and the steps we're taking both short and long term to deliver value for shareholders.

我們對我們的策略以及為股東創造價值所採取的短期和長期步驟充滿信心。

And that concludes our formal remarks, and we will now open it up for questions.

我們的正式發言到此結束，現在我們將開始提問。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of David MacGregor from Longbow Research.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自 Longbow Research 的 David MacGregor。

I guess first question is just on the consolidated EBIT margin progression, excuse me.

我想第一個問題只是關於綜合息稅前利潤率的進展，請原諒。

You had put a chart in your deck last quarter indicating that the -- your 6% ongoing EBIT margin goal for the year included a 6.3% performance in 3Q.

上個季度，您在圖表中放置了一張圖表，顯示您今年 6% 的持續息稅前利潤率目標包括第三季度 6.3% 的業績。

Your actual turned out to be about 5.8% with a 50 basis points variance, representing approximately about $20 million, if my math is correct.

如果我的數學正確的話，你的實際利率約為 5.8%，有 50 個基點的差異，大約相當於 2000 萬美元。

So is that $20 million from the equity method investment loss offsetting what would have otherwise been a nontarget quarter?

那麼，權益法投資損失中的 2,000 萬美元是否可以抵銷本應屬於非目標季度的損失？

But I think more importantly, you've left the full year guide at 6%.

但我認為更重要的是，全年指導值維持在 6%。

So if my math is correct, it implies an 8% fourth quarter margin performance and an exit run rate that would exceed your previous guidance of 8%.

因此，如果我的數學正確，這意味著第四季度的利潤率為 8%，退出運行率將超過您之前 8% 的指導。

So is this a correct takeaway?

那麼這是正確的結論嗎？

And if so, what would be driving the better-than-expected fourth quarter margins?

如果是這樣，是什麼推動了第四季利潤率好於預期？

Yes, David, this is Jim, and I'll kind of start, and then Marc can chime in here.

是的，大衛，這是吉姆，我先開始，然後馬克插話。

I would say you're correct on your first assumption is that, yes, the difference in Q3 is almost purely what we saw from the results with our 25% stake in EMEA.

我想說，你的第一個假設是正確的，是的，第三季的差異幾乎純粹是我們從我們在 EMEA 25% 股份的結果中看到的。

Now as you look towards the full year in Q4, to begin with, as we've said, is it's going to be approximately 6% or around 6%.

現在，當你展望第四季全年時，首先，正如我們所說，它將約為 6% 或 6% 左右。

But as we go into the fourth quarter, what we do expect is, we do expect to continue to, one, see margin expansion, as we've talked about within North America, especially due to the pricing.

但當我們進入第四季度時，我們確實期望的是，我們確實期望繼續看到利潤率擴張，正如我們在北美討論過的那樣，特別是由於定價。

But two, a lot of our cost actions that we have driven, we also expect those to continue to accelerate.

但第二，我們推動的許多成本行動，我們也預期這些行動將持續加速。

And then three, we don't expect to have the same level of impact, a much less level of impact from the EMEA stake that we have.

第三，我們預計不會產生同樣程度的影響，我們所擁有的歐洲、中東和非洲股份所產生的影響要小得多。

So those are the big drivers as we look from Q3 to Q4.

從第三季度到第四季度，這些是主要的驅動因素。

I think the other thing you've got to remember as a company in Q3, we took out -- we talked about we reduced our inventory levels down significantly.

我認為作為一家公司在第三季度你必須記住的另一件事是，我們談到了我們顯著降低了庫存水準。

And so as we go into Q4, we'll have a much more normalized production environment, which also helps us from a cost perspective and gives us better cost absorption leverage within the quarter.

因此，當我們進入第四季度時，我們將擁有更標準化的生產環境，這從成本角度來看也對我們有所幫助，並使我們在本季度內具有更好的成本吸收槓桿。

David, it's Marc.

大衛，是馬克。

Maybe just adding to Jim's points.

也許只是補充吉姆的觀點。

First of all, on the Europe one and just zooming out a little bit, obviously, we all know Europe was a very significant transaction in the year and impacts our full year numbers in many different ways.

首先，就歐洲而言，顯然，我們都知道歐洲是今年非常重要的交易，並以多種不同方式影響我們全年的數據。

And we indicated also all along, it's a negative on the cash flow, and we carry about the $250 million negative cash flow with us.

我們也一直表示，這對現金流是負的，我們攜帶著約 2.5 億美元的負現金流。

It hurts us right now a little bit on this EBIT line, which I want to emphasize is noncash relevant because it's just equity affiliates.

現在，我們在息稅前利潤方面受到了一點傷害，我想強調的是，它與現金無關，因為它只是股權附屬公司。

It's a positive on the tax rate.

這對稅率有正面作用。

So there's a lot of moving parts out of the Europe one that will be in '25, all normalized, but this year's numbers are impacted in many different ways.

因此，25 世紀歐洲的許多變化都已標準化，但今年的數字受到許多不同方面的影響。

And I would say, in particular, with the European losses were associated with the integration efforts, not entirely surprising.

我想說，特別是歐洲的損失與一體化努力有關，這並不完全令人驚訝。

Again we're not cash relevant.

再說一遍，我們與現金無關。

The important thing is if you take all the noise around the margin, I think it all comes down to the underlying North America margin progression.

重要的是，如果你考慮到利潤率周圍的所有噪音，我認為這一切都歸結為北美利潤率的潛在進展。

And just to -- and you all know it, but it's just -- in Q1, we had 5.6% margin in North America.

眾所周知，第一季我們在北美的利潤率為 5.6%。

In Q2, 6.3%.

第二季為 6.3%。

Now in Q3, 7.3%.

現在第三季為 7.3%。

And in Q4, as you heard before, we're guiding 8% to 9%.

正如您之前所聽到的，在第四季度，我們的指導值為 8% 到 9%。

That is, by any definition, a very impressive margin progression.

從任何定義來看，這都是一個非常令人印象深刻的利潤成長。

We all know it's not the destination.

我們都知道這不是目的地。

There's no debate about this one.

關於這一點沒有爭議。

But given what is still a very challenging environment, particularly in the US, I think that is just evidence that our actions, which we put in place, really have a traction.

但考慮到仍然充滿挑戰的環境，特別是在美國，我認為這只是證明我們採取的行動確實具有吸引力。

I guess just as a follow-up, I wanted to ask about the SDA segment.

我想作為後續行動，我想詢問 SDA 部分。

Third quarter sales were down 3%, but margins were down about 400 basis points.

第三季銷售額下降 3%，但利潤率下降約 400 個基點。

You noted the need to support the new product launches with marketing investments.

您指出需要透過行銷投資來支持新產品的發布。

So that makes sense.

所以這是有道理的。

I guess does this imply a stronger fourth quarter seasonal pattern for this business?

我想這是否意味著該業務第四季的季節性模式更強？

And just given the amount of support that you're spending now in 3Q.

考慮到您現在在第三季花費的支援金額。

And I guess given that might be driven by new products, should we expect a stronger than normal incremental margin in that segment in 4Q?

我想，考慮到這可能是由新產品推動的，我們是否應該預期第四季度該領域的增量利潤率會高於正常水平？

Yes, David, it's overall, I would say, we're exactly on track towards our full year guidance on KitchenAid SDA.

是的，大衛，我想說的是，總的來說，我們完全朝著 KitchenAid SDA 的全年指導方向前進。

As you know, we guide slightly north of 7% revenue growth and around 15% or 15%-plus margin.

如您所知，我們的目標是營收成長略高於 7%，利潤率約為 15% 或 15% 以上。

And right now, we feel very good about that number for full year.

現在，我們對全年的這個數字感到非常滿意。

It is just -- and you know that very well, it's the seasonality in the small domestic appliances is heavily, heavily skewed towards September, October, November, particularly October, November.

只是──你很清楚，小家電的季節性嚴重偏向九月、十月、十一月，特別是十月、十一月。

So one or two days of shipping to a trade partner in the quarter makes a massive difference plus minus.

因此，本季向貿易夥伴運送一兩天會產生巨大的正負差異。

But you take the two quarters combined of the entire year, we feel very good about where we are.

但如果把全年的兩個季度加起來，我們對自己的處境感覺非常好。

And yes, you're correct, we significantly increased our marketing investments to support the new product launches, and we see a very good response, both consumers and trade, with flooring and star ratings.

是的，您是對的，我們顯著增加了行銷投資以支持新產品的發布，我們看到消費者和貿易界在地板和星級評定方面都取得了非常好的反響。

So we feel very good about Q4.

所以我們對第四季感覺非常好。

I wouldn't expect a usually disproportionate lift.

我不會期望通常不成比例的提升。

It will be -- Q4 will be in line for full year guidance.

第四季將符合全年指引。

Our next question comes from the line of Susan Maklari from Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Susan Maklari。

My first question is, just digging a bit deeper into the North American MDA margin, can you talk a bit more about that price mix dynamic that you saw?

我的第一個問題是，更深入了解北美 MDA 利潤率，可以多談談您看到的價格組合動態嗎？

You mentioned coming out of the second quarter, you were seeing that 1 points to 2 points of pricing given the program that you launched earlier this year.

您提到，從第二季度開始，鑑於您今年早些時候推出的計劃，您看到定價提高了 1 到 2 個點。

Are you on track with that?

你在這方面走上正軌嗎？

And then how should we think about it relative to the mix component in there and other factors to that margin as well?

那麼我們應該如何相對於其中的混合成分以及與該利潤相關的其他因素來考慮它呢？

Yes.

是的。

Susan, in general terms, the picture is very similar to what we indicated in the last earnings call.

蘇珊，總的來說，情況與我們在上次財報電話會議中指出的非常相似。

We have two drivers in the price/mix in North America, which work in the opposite direction.

在北美，我們的價格/組合有兩個驅動因素，它們的作用方向相反。

The positive is the changes which we had on our promotional pricing, that lift, which we indicated is fully in place, and we see that fully in our numbers.

積極的一面是我們對促銷價格進行了調整，我們表示這些調整已經完全到位，並且我們在數據中充分看到了這一點。

That's a positive.

這是積極的。

On the negative side, you still have continued mixed weakness.

從消極的方面來看，您仍然繼續混合疲軟。

That is largely coming from a very -- I mean, against historic comparison, a very high share of replacement demand, in particular, on more of a margin weaker product categories and also SKUs.

這主要來自於——我的意思是，與歷史比較相比，替換需求的比例非常高，特別是在利潤率較弱的產品類別和 SKU 上。

So we have a negative mix.

所以我們有負面的組合。

The totality of that is a positive sequential pricing.

總體而言，這是一個正序貫定價。

But right now, we -- again, that's what we saw in Q3, that's what we saw in Q2, and I would expect a similar picture in Q4 also.

但現在，我們再次強調，這就是我們在第三季看到的情況，這就是我們在第二季看到的情況，我預期第四季也會出現類似的情況。

Okay.

好的。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

And then you mentioned in your commentary that you did see that discretionary demand slow further in the quarter relative to what you've seen in the first half.

然後您在評論中提到，與上半年相比，您確實看到本季的可自由支配需求進一步放緩。

Can you just talk a bit more about that?

能再多談一下嗎？

What do you think is driving that, the health of the consumer?

您認為是什麼推動了消費者的健康？

And any of the broader factors that are maybe going on in the US that are coming through?

美國可能正在發生的任何更廣泛的因素？

Yes.

是的。

And Susan, again, it's Marc.

蘇珊，又是馬克。

Again, this is particularly related to North America.

同樣，這與北美尤其相關。

I would say the health of the consumer and the sentiment of the consumer across the world actually is in pretty good shape.

我想說，全球消費者的健康狀況和消費者情緒其實都處於良好狀態。

It's North America and US in particular.

尤其是北美，尤其是美國。

And obviously, that's a combination.

顯然，這是一個組合。

But general housing market, I mean, as evidenced yesterday with existing home sales, is still in a very soft spot.

但我的意思是，正如昨天的現有房屋銷售所證明的那樣，整體房地產市場仍然處於非常疲軟的狀態。

And that's -- we all know, is ultimately driven by mortgage rates.

眾所周知，這最終是由抵押貸款利率驅動的。

So that's one part.

這就是一部分。

But then the pre-election consumer sentiment is just not good.

但大選前的消費者信心並不好。

And that is not entirely surprised.

這並不完全令人驚訝。

We've seen a similar pattern in the last election, the election before.

我們在上次選舉和之前的選舉中都看到了類似的模式。

And that's just as a -- anybody living in the US, you're exposed to negative news every day and negative messages every day.

就像任何生活在美國的人一樣，你每天都會接觸到負面新聞和負面訊息。

And that does not lift consumer sentiment.

這並沒有提振消費者信心。

Now the good news is -- or hopefully, the good news is in prior elections, we saw pretty quick recovery of consumer sentiment once the elections were over, irrespective of outcome, but it was -- so that's kind of consumer sentiment being low.

現在的好消息是——或者希望在之前的選舉中，我們看到選舉結束後消費者信心很快恢復，無論結果如何，但事實確實如此——所以消費者信心較低。

We've seen that in September, we've seen that in October and probably until the election is over, that's what we're going to continue to see.

我們在 9 月和 10 月都看到了這一點，可能直到選舉結束，我們都會繼續看到這一點。

Susan, I'd just add to what Marc said is that we still believe strongly in the long-term housing demand dynamics for the US And again, as we've pointed out that a lot of this is right now, as Marc pointed out, I mean, existing home sales, again yesterday came in on a multi-decade type of low.

蘇珊，我想補充一下馬克所說的，我們仍然堅信美國的長期住房需求動態，正如我們已經指出的那樣，其中很多都是現在的，正如馬克指出的那樣我的意思是，昨天的成屋銷售再次創下了數十年來的低點。

So we are in a trough right now.

所以我們現在正處於低谷。

But if you really look at this on a much longer-term spectrum, housing is still undersupplied.

但如果你真正從更長遠的角度來看待這個問題，你會發現住房供應仍然不足。

We do believe the dynamics of the market, especially the interest rates begin to come down, will become much more positive, but it's not going to be an overnight process.

我們確實相信市場的動態，特別是利率開始下降，將變得更加積極，但這不會是一夜之間的過程。

Your next question comes from the line of Mike Dahl from RBC Capital Markets.

您的下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部的 Mike Dahl。

I just wanted to, I guess, Marc, you're saying on North America, 8% to 9%.

我只是想，馬克，你說的是北美，8% 到 9%。

Either Jim or Marc, I think what we're kind of missing in the bridge is you clearly have a tax benefit for the full year that's contributing to EPS, but you're holding your EPS guide.

無論是吉姆還是馬克，我認為我們在橋樑中缺少的是，您顯然擁有全年的稅收優惠，這對每股收益有貢獻，但您持有每股收益指南。

You're holding your EBIT guide, but you're improving your tax rate.

您保留了息稅前利潤指南，但您正在提高稅率。

So is there just -- is it kind of rounding in some of the EBIT numbers?

那麼，某些息稅前利潤數字是否存在四捨五入的情況？

Or can you just help us bridge to help us make that math a little bit better?

或者你能幫助我們建立橋樑，幫助我們把數學做得更好一點嗎？

Yes, Mike, this is Jim.

是的，麥克，這是吉姆。

And I would say, yes, to a certain extent, kind of like in the first question I answered earlier, some of it is a bit of rounding because we said we expect the EBIT margin to be approximately 6%.

我想說，是的，在某種程度上，有點像我之前回答的第一個問題，其中有些是四捨五入，因為我們說我們預計息稅前利潤率約為 6%。

As we talked about, we did have an unexpected impact within the quarter due to our EMEA stake.

正如我們所說，由於我們在歐洲、中東和非洲的股份，我們確實在本季產生了意想不到的影響。

So that wasn't really in what we originally thought of.

所以這並不是我們最初的想法。

And that's a noncash item, and we do expect that to improve over time.

這是一個非現金項目，我們確實希望隨著時間的推移，情況會有所改善。

I think if you look at North America and you look at what we expect to drive significant -- continued improvement in the fourth quarter here, as I talked about earlier, is one, we continue to expect costs to be a positive.

我認為，如果你看看北美，看看我們預計將在第四季度推動顯著的推動，正如我之前談到的，這裡的持續改善就是其中之一，我們仍然預計成本將是積極的。

We'll have the continued benefits of pricing.

我們將繼續享受定價帶來的好處。

We expect cost to continue to be a positive there.

我們預計那裡的成本將繼續呈正值。

But also, I talked about the inventory reduction that we did, and we will get benefit from just the cost absorption and leverage that we get from running our production at more normalized levels or closer to where demand is.

而且，我還談到了我們所做的庫存減少，我們將從以更規範的水平或更接近需求的水平運行生產所獲得的成本吸收和槓桿中受益。

So those are -- I think you are correct in saying that some of it is rounding and some of it is what we didn't expect from EMEA.

所以，我認為你說的有些是四捨五入的，有些是我們對歐洲、中東和非洲地區沒有期望的，這是正確的。

But also, we do expect certain things to improve, the North America margins in Q4.

而且，我們確實預期某些事情會有所改善，例如第四季度北美的利潤率。

Okay.

好的。

Got it.

知道了。

And then Jim, can I shift to balance sheet question.

然後吉姆，我可以轉向資產負債表問題嗎？

I think if we look at the cash balance last quarter of the $1.2 billion roughly in cash, I think the disclosure in the Q was that about $750 million of that was a combination of your stake in Whirlpool India and then what's being held in Brazil, which you may or may not have free access to on an ongoing basis.

我認為，如果我們看一下上季度 12 億美元的現金餘額，我認為 Q 中披露的資訊是，其中約 7.5 億美元是您在惠而浦印度公司的股份以及在巴西持有的股份的總和，您可能會也可能不會持續免費訪問。

Can you give us an update on -- of the $1.1 billion on 3Q cash?

您能否向我們介紹第三季 11 億美元現金的最新情況？

How much is actually in the US?

美國實際上有多少？

And how should we be thinking about the non-US cash and your ability to access that or repatriate that in a tax-efficient way?

我們應該如何考慮非美國現金以及您以節稅方式取得或匯回這些現金的能力？

Yes.

是的。

So -- and to your point, when you look at where our cash is at the end of Q3 versus Q2, it's relatively similar because most of the time, whatever cash we have in the US, we do use to bring down our commercial paper borrowings, which is on our line -- our notes payable line.

因此，就您的觀點而言，當您查看我們在第三季末與第二季末的現金情況時，會發現它相對相似，因為大多數時候，無論我們在美國擁有多少現金，我們確實都會用來降低我們的商業票據借款，這是我們的行—我們的應付票據行。

So we're at very similar levels of cash in terms of geographic locations.

因此，就地理位置而言，我們的現金水準非常相似。

Our ability to access the cash around the world is driven by a lot of different things, legal entity structures and other stuff.

我們在世界各地獲取現金的能力是由許多不同的因素、法律實體結構和其他因素所驅動的。

On a longer-term basis, we are able to access a lot of this cash through various things as we can repatriate earnings or do other things with it.

從長遠來看，我們能夠透過各種方式獲得大量現金，因為我們可以匯回收入或用它來做其他事情。

But in certain parts of the world, such as India and places like that where we have a more significant minority ownership, a lot of that cash does stay there.

但在世界某些地區，例如印度和類似的地方，我們擁有更重要的少數股權，很多現金確實留在那裡。

Now on the other hand, you have to look at what we're doing with some of that cash that's in places like India.

另一方面，你必須看看我們在印度等地如何使用這些現金。

We've talked about we've continued to invest and take a larger stake in Elica India.

我們已經談到我們將繼續投資並持有 Elica India 的更多股份。

We continue to invest more in that business.

我們繼續加大對該業務的投資。

So we're putting that cash to work in places like that to grow those businesses and continue to invest there because, as I said, it is a little bit more difficult to repatriate, but it's also in a part of the world where we really do want to grow.

因此，我們將這些現金投入到這樣的地方，以發展這些業務並繼續在那裡投資，因為正如我所說，匯回國內有點困難，但它也是在世界上我們真正可以投資的地方。成長。

So there's no significant difference from where we were at the end of the last quarter.

因此，與上季末的情況沒有顯著差異。

Now as we look at Q4, a big portion of that cash we generate in Q4 will be within the US and is generated both by our KitchenAid business, which has a very strong fourth quarter, as well as by our US North America majors business that also tends to generate significant cash within the fourth quarter.

現在，當我們看第四季度時，我們在第四季度產生的現金的很大一部分將來自美國，並且是由我們的KitchenAid 業務（第四季度表現非常強勁）以及我們的美國北美主要業務產生的。

Michael, it's Marc.

邁克爾，是馬克。

Just maybe adding to Jim's point.

也許只是補充一下吉姆的觀點。

Of course, then by definition, also the cash balance follows our cash flow in the quarter.

當然，根據定義，現金餘額也遵循我們本季的現金流。

So the Q4 cash balance, of course, by definition, will look very different than Q3, driven by what Jim was just saying.

因此，當然，根據吉姆剛才所說的內容，第四季度的現金餘額看起來將與第三季度有很大不同。

It's just how our working capital flows through our business.

這就是我們的營運資金在我們的業務中流動的方式。

In particular, in North America, you basically -- you produce the inventory, which is kind of absorbing cash and then you start selling and you collect the receivables, which typically turns in the Q4.

特別是在北美，你基本上——你生產庫存，這在某種程度上吸收了現金，然後你開始銷售並收取應收賬款，這通常在第四季度週轉。

That's every year the same, but then particularly with our SDA business, but also seasonality of North America business, that cash cycle particularly impacts North America and therefore, also a cash balance in the US.

每年都是一樣的，但特別是我們的 SDA 業務，還有北美業務的季節性，現金週期特別影響北美，因此也影響美國的現金餘額。

Your next question comes from the line of Laura Champine from Loop Capital.

您的下一個問題來自 Loop Capital 的 Laura Champine。

It's on top line for small appliances.

它是小家電的頂級產品。

I think you guys called out that it's an industry problem that led to the decline on a year-on-year basis.

我想你們已經指出這是一個行業問題導致了同比下降。

Can you confirm that you held market share and give us a little more color on what's going on with the industry that would cause that to weaken in the quarter?

您能否確認您佔據了市場份額，並為我們提供更多有關該行業正在發生的情況（導致本季市場疲軟的情況）的資訊？

Laura, it's Marc.

蘿拉，我是馬克。

I mean, very similar to what I said before, our full year guidance on kitchen is more domestic, we feel very comfortable with that revenue guide of north of 7%.

我的意思是，與我之前所說的非常相似，我們對廚房的全年指導更多是國內的，我們對 7% 以上的收入指導感到非常滿意。

So I wouldn't read too much in Q3 because there's so much about the sell-in shipments in terms of what happens in the last one or two weeks of September versus first one or two weeks of October.

因此，我不會在第三季度閱讀太多內容，因為關於 9 月最後一兩週與 10 月前一兩週發生的情況，有很多關於銷售出貨量的資訊。

We invested a lot in the new products, and the new products are really finding good traction, except for strong consumer ratings.

我們在新產品上投入了大量資金，除了強勁的消費者評級外，新產品確實獲得了良好的吸引力。

So it's -- as Jim pointed out, it's fully automatic, semi-automatic espresso makers with evergreen stand mixer.

正如吉姆所指出的，它是全自動、半自動濃縮咖啡機，配有常青立式攪拌機。

If you haven't seen it, look it up, the rice and grain cookers.

如果你還沒看過，那就查一下，電鍋和五穀飯鍋。

So there's a really whole set of new products that we feel very, very good about and that's why we have no concerns about the fundamental revenue growth.

因此，我們對一整套新產品感覺非常非常好，這就是為什麼我們不擔心基本收入成長。

So don't read too much into the Q3 ins and outs.

因此，不要過多地了解第三季度的細節。

Understood.

明白了。

On the North American majors side, why not lower bar for revenues there for this year, just given you just called out some of the macro numbers are making new rather historic lows on existing home, et cetera?

在北美主要方面，為什麼不降低今年的收入標準，因為您剛剛指出一些宏觀數據正在使現有房屋創下歷史新低等等？

Yes.

是的。

So Laura, we are -- again, for North America, we're particularly focused on the margin expansion.

勞拉，我們再次強調，對於北美地區，我們特別關注利潤率的擴張。

That's the theme, which we had for the entire year.

這就是我們全年的主題。

And frankly, we basically -- in that environment, we don't want to lose market share, and we basically want to keep a stable top line.

坦白說，我們基本上 - 在這種環境下，我們不想失去市場份額，我們基本上希望保持穩定的收入。

So yes, there's, of course, some ins and outs on the Q4 revenue line driven by what we said earlier about the consumer strength and the consumer discretionary demand in Q4.

所以，是的，當然，第四季的營收線有一些細節，這是由我們之前所說的第四季消費者實力和消費者非必需品需求所推動的。

But right now, primary focus is on getting the margin expansion to a healthy level, which I think we're on track.

但目前，主要關注點是將利潤率擴張至健康水平，我認為我們正在走上正軌。

And right now, particularly on the market share and then subsequently, the revenue side, we -- in particular the last kind of couple of months, we feel better and better.

現在，特別是在市場份額方面，然後是收入方面，我們——特別是最後幾個月，我們感覺越來越好。

So we -- as we all know, after our pricing promotional changes in April, we lost a little bit of share, probably less than we expected initially, and ever since we've been recovering.

因此，眾所周知，在四月份的定價促銷調整之後，我們失去了一點份額，可能比我們最初預期的要少，但此後我們一直在恢復。

So I would say our revenue in Q4 and what we saw in Q3 is pretty much in line with where we expect market to be.

因此，我想說我們第四季的營收和第三季的營收與我們預期的市場狀況非常一致。

And Laura, as we said, within Q4 here in the US with the election cycle going on, we do just expect an unusual pattern of demand that will be a little bit slower and then should pick up significantly like we've seen historically.

勞拉，正如我們所說，在美國第四季度，隨著選舉週期的進行，我們確實預計需求會出現一種不尋常的模式，這種模式會稍微放緩一點，然後應該會像我們歷史上看到的那樣顯著回升。

So again, that's why it makes this an unusual Q4.

再說一遍，這就是為什麼第四季會變得不尋常。

But to Marc's point, in aggregate across the whole quarter, we do expect it to be relatively in line with what our previous expectations have been.

但就馬克而言，從整個季度的總體來看，我們確實預計它與我們先前的預期相對一致。

Your next question comes from the line of Rafe Jadrosich from Bank of America.

您的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Rafe Jadrosich。

First, so steel prices have come down quite a bit here.

首先，這裡的鋼材價格已經下降了不少。

Can you just remind us of the potential tailwind that you would see, how you lock in and when?

您能否提醒我們您將看到的潛在順風車、如何鎖定以及何時鎖定？

And then how much of that could potentially be competed away?

那麼其中有多少可能會被競爭掉呢？

So let me zoom out a little bit more on the broader raw material side.

因此，讓我稍微關註一下更廣泛的原材料方面。

As you know, kind of the different raw materials have different kind of -- we have different opportunities to lock in "certain prices."

如您所知，不同的原材料有不同的種類——我們有不同的機會鎖定「特定價格」。

By a long-shot, biggest material item is steel, where we tend to have annual or in some cases, even longer contracts, in particular North America.

從長遠來看，最大的材料項目是鋼鐵，我們傾向於簽訂年度合同，在某些情況下甚至是更長的合同，特別是在北美。

In South America and Asia, we're a little bit shorter term.

在南美洲和亞洲，我們的期限有點短。

But that's by long shot.

但這是長遠的事。

And as we -- as you probably know from the past, typically around Q3, Q4 is when we try to lock in these longer-term contracts.

正如您可能從過去知道的那樣，通常是在第三季度和第四季度，我們試圖鎖定這些長期合約。

Oil is particularly, of course, impacting plastic, which is our number 1 supply.

當然，石油對塑膠的影響尤其大，塑膠是我們的第一大供應品。

Typically, we're a quarter out.

通常情況下，我們會落後四分之一。

So the ability to hedge longer is just very limited.

因此，對沖更長時間的能力非常有限。

So we're typically a quarter out.

所以我們通常會落後四分之一。

And right now, I would say, on a full year basis, as we indicated, and right now, in the short term, it's probably moving sideways, i.e., not usually up or down.

現在，我想說，正如我們所指出的，從全年來看，現在，短期內，它可能會橫向移動，即通常不會上漲或下跌。

Fuel is a much smaller piece in our overall cost equation, and we hedge it out a little bit longer.

燃料在我們的整體成本方程式中所佔的比例要小得多，我們對沖它的時間要長一些。

So that's yes, coming down a little bit on the spot helps a little bit, but again, we're kind of hedged on the fuel to some extent.

所以，是的，當場降低一點點會有所幫助，但同樣，我們在某種程度上對燃料進行了對沖。

So put it all together, because there's a lot of moving parts also in zinc and copper, et cetera, for the full year, raw materials are exactly where we had in mind, i.e., basically largely neutral, and that's the trend which we also see right now in Q4.

因此，總而言之，因為鋅和銅等也有很多變化，全年原材料正是我們想要的，即基本上是中性的，這也是我們所關注的趨勢現在請參見第四季度。

Got it.

知道了。

And there's no -- I mean, just anything on '25 where you -- just where steel prices are now?

我的意思是，沒有任何關於 25 年鋼鐵價格的資訊？

Or is it too early?

還是現在還太早？

Well, Rafe, I'm first of all surprised it took us already half-an-hour to get into a question of '25.

好吧，Rafe，我首先感到驚訝的是我們已經花了半個小時才進入“25”的問題。

But part of -- first of all, we give the guidance in January '25, and then we give you all with the details.

但首先，我們會在 25 年 1 月提供指導，然後向大家提供詳細資訊。

But on a full year base '24, we did not expect major moves in raw material.

但以 24 年全年為基準，我們預期原料不會有重大變動。

Is there some small favorability of some raw materials, which we're trying to lock in?

我們試圖鎖定的某些原料是否有一些小的優勢？

Yes, but I wouldn't overstate it at this point.

是的，但我現在不會誇大這一點。

But there's -- let's put it this, there's positive elements, which we're trying to capture in our contracts, but they're not yet of a massive magnitude.

但是，我們試圖在合約中體現一些積極的因素，但它們的規模還不是很大。

I think the other thing, and as Marc called out, the reason we really do wait until January is to kind of give a more comprehensive picture.

我認為另一件事，正如馬克所說，我們真正等到一月份的原因是為了提供更全面的情況。

And to start piecemealing some of the factors really doesn't give that comprehensive picture because there are a lot of moving parts as Marc highlighted.

開始零碎地分析一些因素實際上並不能給出全面的圖景，因為正如馬克所強調的那樣，有很多變化的部分。

Some of the materials as we get closer to the year and even within the year, there's still a degree of variability to them.

隨著我們接近年份，甚至在年內，一些材料仍然存在一定程度的變化。

And that's why we really wait until January to give you that more holistic picture.

這就是為什麼我們要等到一月份才能為您提供更全面的情況。

Our next question comes from the line of Sam Darkatsh from Raymond James.

我們的下一個問題來自 Raymond James 的 Sam Darkatsh。

This is Josh, filling in for Sam.

這是喬什，接替山姆。

First, I'd like to make sure we're understanding the 4Q guidance correctly for like-for-like sales.

首先，我想確保我們正確理解第四季度的同類銷售指引。

It looks like it's about up 6%.

看起來上漲了6%左右。

Fairly meaningful inflection.

相當有意義的變形。

Is that entirely volume-driven?

這完全是數量驅動的嗎？

Or is there a mix or other components in that plus 6%?

還是其中有混合物或其他成分加上 6%？

I think the biggest part of it, if you think about, one, on a global basis, you do have strong industry demand outside the US, and we talked about that.

我認為其中最重要的部分是，如果你考慮一下，第一，在全球範圍內，美國以外的行業確實有強勁的需求，我們談到了這一點。

Two, as you look at -- we talked a little bit about the small domestic appliance business before.

第二，正如你所看到的——我們之前討論過一些小家電業務。

And that, in aggregate, we expect the back half of the year to be in line while Q3 was a little bit less.

總的來說，我們預計今年下半年的情況將保持一致，而第三季的情況將稍微少一些。

So it means Q4 will be a little bit stronger.

所以這意味著第四季會更強一些。

So you've got a mix and then you've got just some just natural seasonality in there.

所以你得到了一種混合，然後你就得到了一些自然的季節性。

But I'd say those are probably the big components that drive what we expect the improvement in revenue to be in Q4.

但我想說，這些可能是推動我們預期第四季營收改善的重要組成部分。

And then in terms of the productivity and cost savings ramping higher in 4Q, can you just provide more detail on exactly why that's improving so much sequentially, especially maybe if you're working down inventory and selling off higher cost units?

然後，就第四季度的生產率和成本節省而言，您能否提供更多詳細信息，說明為何連續改善如此之多，特別是如果您正在減少庫存並出售更高成本的單位？

Well, I'd say when you look at it on a sequential basis, the biggest drivers that we see in cost, and I'll kind of go back to is our organizational simplification efforts that we've rolled out.

好吧，我想說，當你按順序查看時，我們在成本方面看到的最大驅動因素，我會回顧一下我們已經推出的組織簡化工作。

Again, we started in Q2, we continue to execute that in Q3, and you have a full benefit now coming in Q4.

同樣，我們從第二季度開始，我們在第三季度繼續執行，現在您將在第四季度獲得全部收益。

So that's one of the biggest pieces that you have is a lot of the actions we've taken this year, get to a point of where we're getting the full benefit within our fourth quarter.

因此，這是我們今年採取的許多行動中最重要的部分之一，我們將在第四季內獲得全部收益。

I'd say the other thing when I talked about, again, the inventory reduction, and you're looking at this sequentially, we just will have higher production levels, which allows us to get better leverage within our factories, means we'll absorb more cost in Q4 because now that we've got our inventory levels to the right point for year-end, we can bring our production levels back to normal.

當我再次談到庫存減少時，我想說另一件事，你會按順序查看這一點，我們只會有更高的生產水平，這使我們能夠在工廠內獲得更好的槓桿作用，這意味著我們將第四季度吸收更多成本，因為現在我們的庫存水準已達到年底的正確水平，我們可以使生產水準恢復正常。

So those are the two big sequential drivers from a cost perspective.

因此，從成本角度來看，這是兩個重要的連續驅動因素。

Maybe just adding to Jim's point about the inventory, what is this year different in Q3 when compared to other years.

也許只是補充吉姆關於庫存的觀點，今年第三季與其他年份相比有何不同。

Again, in most simplistic terms, as you know, production or if you produce, it drives productivity.

同樣，用最簡單的術語來說，如您所知，生產或如果您生產，它就會提高生產力。

So depending on when you reduce or increase inventory has a pretty big impact on the measured productivity.

因此，取決於您何時減少或增加庫存，對測量的生產力有相當大的影響。

In usual normal years, we typically take the inventory, start reducing production in Q4.

在通常的正常年份，我們通常會在第四季開始清庫存、減產。

This year, because of all the uncertainty, we took down the inventory and the production a little bit early in the year.

今年，由於存在各種不確定性，我們提前一點減少了庫存和產量。

As a result, our September inventory levels are more in line with what we typically would get in October kind of mid-November.

因此，我們 9 月份的庫存水準更符合我們通常在 10 月或 11 月中旬獲得的庫存水準。

And what it all translates into that our Q4 production levels actually will be reasonably healthy.

這一切意味著我們第四季度的生產水準實際上將相當健康。

So that has an impact on the cost productivity.

這會影響成本生產力。

But this year changed a little bit just because we've been a little bit more cautious on the inventory.

但今年發生了一些變化，只是因為我們對庫存更加謹慎了。

(Operator Instructions) Your next question comes from the line of Eric Bosshard from Cleveland Research.

（操作員說明）您的下一個問題來自克利夫蘭研究中心的 Eric Bosshard。

Just wonder if you can help connect the dots a little bit better.

只是想知道您是否可以幫助更好地連接這些點。

I understand the benefits of higher production levels in 4Q.

我了解第四季更高生產水準的好處。

I guess what I'm trying to get a better sense of is, from a market share perspective and then from promotions, Marc, I think you were pretty clear of prioritizing margin, but also feel good about market share.

我想我想要更好地理解的是，從市場份額的角度，然後從促銷的角度來看，馬克，我認為你非常清楚優先考慮利潤，但也對市場份額感覺良好。

As you're running the business in 4Q, is there a different mindset?

當您在第四季度經營業務時，有什麼不同的心態嗎？

Or I'm just trying to figure out how you think about those 3 things together.

或者我只是想弄清楚你如何看待這三件事。

Yes, Eric.

是的，埃里克。

So first of all, again, all parts of our global world are a little bit different.

首先，我們全球世界的各個部分都略有不同。

So our market share is very strong in Latin America.

所以我們在拉丁美洲的市佔率非常強大。

India is very strong, we picked up, and we feel very good of market share in particularly premium small domestic appliances.

印度非常強大，我們有所回升，我們對特別是高端小型家用電器的市場份額感到非常滿意。

In the US, as I mentioned before, after we did the pricing promotional changes in April, May, we took a little bit of dip in market share and have been recovering ever since, and we feel good about the trend where we are.

在美國，正如我之前提到的，在我們四月、五月進行價格促銷調整後，我們的市場份額略有下降，此後一直在恢復，我們對目前的趨勢感到滿意。

In terms of particularly as we think about Q4, it comes back to everything, which we said before, is this Q4 is a little bit unusual because in the US, it is an election year.

特別是當我們想到第四季時，它又回到了我們之前說過的一切，第四季有點不尋常，因為在美國，這是一個選舉年。

So it's comparable to previous election years, but it's not the same as in '23 and '22.

所以它與之前的選舉年相當，但與 23 和 22 不同。

As such, we are kind of lift, which you might get out of promotions in the current period are just less than usual because the consumer sentiment is just not there.

因此，我們是一種提升，你可能會從當前時期的促銷活動中得到的好處只是比平常少，因為消費者情緒不存在。

And therefore, we kind of continue what we said in Q2 and Q3.

因此，我們繼續我們在第二季和第三季所說的內容。

We participate in promotion where we think we create value, i.e., when we get lift.

我們在認為自己創造價值的地方（即當我們獲得提升時）參與促銷活動。

In the current environment, that is just very limited.

在目前的環境下，這非常有限。

Our focus is on margin expansion.

我們的重點是利潤率擴張。

And there are no further questions.

沒有其他問題了。

I will now turn it back over to our CEO for closing remarks.

現在我將把它轉回給我們的執行長做總結發言。

All right.

好的。

Well, thank you, first of all, all for joining us today.

好的，首先感謝大家今天加入我們。

I mean, you heard us talking today before quite a bit.

我的意思是，你今天已經聽過我們談話很久了。

We feel good about the margin expansion, which we had sequentially both on a global and North America level, and particularly in North America, which is, given the challenging environment, particularly North America, is not an easy one, not a given one, but I feel very good about how our organization executed the actions which we put in place.

我們對全球和北美層面的利潤率擴張感到滿意，特別是在北美，考慮到充滿挑戰的環境，特別是北美，這不是一件容易的事情，不是一個既定的事情，但我對我們的組織如何執行我們所採取的行動感到非常滿意。

And I think they give us good momentum into Q4 and next year.

我認為它們為我們進入第四季和明年提供了良好的動力。

And we all know that is in an environment where housing recovery will come.

我們都知道，在這樣的環境下，房屋市場將會復甦。

We all wish it come sooner than later, but it will come, and we're very, very well set up for housing recovery.

我們都希望它早點到來，但它終究會到來，而且我們已經為住房復甦做好了充分準備。

And I would repeat what I said before, there's no company like Whirlpool, which benefits more from housing recovery in US.

我要重複我之前說過的話，沒有一家公司像惠而浦一樣，從美國房地產復甦中受益更多。

So with that in mind, I appreciate you all joining and talk to you sometime soon.

因此，考慮到這一點，我感謝大家加入並很快與你們交談。

Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's conference call.

女士們先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連線。