惠而浦 (WHR) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to Whirlpool Corporation's Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Release Call. Today's call is being recorded. For opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to Senior Director of Investor Relations, Korey Thomas.

早上好，歡迎來到惠而浦公司 2022 年第三季度收益發布電話會議。今天的通話正在錄音中。關於開場白和介紹，我想將電話轉給投資者關係高級總監 Korey Thomas。

Thank you, and welcome to our fourth quarter and full year 2022 conference call. Joining me today are Marc Bitzer, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, and Jim Peters, our Chief Financial Officer. Our remarks today track with a presentation available on the Investors section of our website at wolffilcorp.com. Before we begin, I want to remind you that as we conduct this call, we'll be making forward-looking statements to assist you in better understanding Whirlpool Corporation's future expectations. Our actual results could differ materially from these statements due to many factors discussed in our latest 10-K, 10-Q and other periodic reports. We also want to remind you that today's presentation includes non-GAAP measures. We believe these measures are important indicators of our operations as they exclude items that may not be indicative of results from our ongoing business operations. We also think the adjusted measures will provide you with a better baseline for analyzing trends in our ongoing business operations. Listeners are directed to the presentation and supplemental information package posted on the Investor Relations section of our website for the reconciliation of non-GAAP items to the most directly comparable GAAP measures. (Operator Instructions) With that, I'll turn the call over to Marc.

謝謝，歡迎來到我們的第四季度和 2022 年全年電話會議。今天加入我的是我們的董事長兼首席執行官 Marc Bitzer 和我們的首席財務官 Jim Peters。我們今天的評論與我們網站 wolffilcorp.com 投資者部分的演示文稿相吻合。在我們開始之前，我想提醒您，在我們進行此次電話會議時，我們將做出前瞻性陳述，以幫助您更好地了解惠而浦公司的未來預期。由於我們最新的 10-K、10-Q 和其他定期報告中討論的許多因素，我們的實際結果可能與這些陳述存在重大差異。我們還想提醒您，今天的介紹包括非 GAAP 措施。我們認為這些措施是我們運營的重要指標，因為它們排除了可能無法表明我們正在進行的業務運營結果的項目。我們還認為調整後的措施將為您提供更好的基線來分析我們正在進行的業務運營的趨勢。聽眾被引導到我們網站投資者關係部分發布的演示文稿和補充信息包，以將非 GAAP 項目與最直接可比的 GAAP 措施進行核對。 （操作員說明）有了這個，我會把電話轉給馬克。

Thanks, Korey, and good morning, everyone. Turning to our agenda on Slide 4. I will preview what we will discuss today. Two weeks ago, we announced the conclusion of a strategic review of EMEA alongside preliminary 2022 results and a preview of our '23 expectations. This morning, we will provide additional context on each, starting with our '22 results. And during the second half of 2022, we were in the midst of an unfavorable macro cycle. A short-term consumer sentiment and demand continued to reflect recessionary concerns. At the same time, inflationary pressures remained stubbornly high. While the combination of demand down, cost up is historically rather unusual for it, best temporary it did impact our results negatively during Q4. In addition, our supply chain execution was not where we expected it to be in the fourth quarter. This was due to a one-off supply issue that has since been resolved, but negatively impacted a number of our North American factories. Jim will provide more information on 2022 later in the call.

謝謝，Korey，大家早上好。轉到幻燈片 4 上的議程。我將預覽我們今天要討論的內容。兩週前，我們宣布結束對 EMEA 的戰略審查以及 2022 年的初步結果和我們 23 年預期的預覽。今天早上，我們將從我們的 22 年結果開始，提供每項內容的更多背景信息。而在 2022 年下半年，我們正處於一個不利的宏觀週期之中。短期消費者情緒和需求繼續反映出對經濟衰退的擔憂。與此同時，通脹壓力居高不下。雖然需求下降和成本上升的組合從歷史上看是不尋常的，但最好是暫時的，它確實對我們在第四季度的業績產生了負面影響。此外，我們的供應鏈執行情況未達到我們預期的第四季度水平。這是由於一次性供應問題已經解決，但對我們的許多北美工廠產生了負面影響。吉姆將在稍後的電話會議中提供有關 2022 年的更多信息。

Looking ahead into 2023, we do expect the tail end of this negative macro cycle to be felt during the first few months of the year. We foresee macro headwinds to slowly turn into tailwinds as the year progresses. Needless to say that it is difficult to predict the exact timing of the shift in the macro cycle, but we would expect this to happen towards late Q2 or early Q3.

展望 2023 年，我們確實預計今年頭幾個月會感受到這一宏觀負週期的尾聲。我們預計，隨著時間的推移，宏觀逆風將慢慢轉變為順風。不用說，很難預測宏觀週期轉變的確切時間，但我們預計這將發生在第二季度末或第三季度初。

Given this volatility, we remain relentlessly focused on the business levers, which we can control. And we are fully confident that the medium-term demand drivers of our business remain intact. Our operational priorities in 2023 will be flawless execution of our supply chain and the delivery of very significant cost targets. After 2 years of inflationary cost increases, we will deliver $800 million to $900 million of total cost takeout. We have a high degree of confidence in delivering this target.

鑑於這種波動性，我們仍然堅持不懈地專注於我們可以控制的業務槓桿。我們完全有信心我們業務的中期需求驅動力保持不變。我們在 2023 年的運營重點將是完美執行我們的供應鍊和實現非常重要的成本目標。經過 2 年的通貨膨脹成本增加，我們將交付 8 億至 9 億美元的總成本支出。我們對實現這一目標充滿信心。

Looking back on our history, Whirlpool has a strong record of successfully managing for challenging cycles and delivering substantial cost reductions. In 2007, we expected $400 million of raw material inflation as we entered the year. We responded to this high level of cost inflation with early and decisive actions delivering record results.

回顧我們的歷史，惠而浦在成功應對具有挑戰性的周期並大幅降低成本方面有著良好的記錄。 2007 年，我們預計在進入這一年時會出現 4 億美元的原材料膨脹。我們通過早期和果斷的行動來應對這種高水平的成本通脹，取得了創紀錄的成果。

In 2011 and 2012, we reduced our fixed cost in North America by more than $400 million. More importantly, we're not just starting this new cost initiative in January 2023. As mentioned in our prior earnings calls, we have initiated this during the second half of 2022. As a result, the maturity of the underlying actions has advanced significantly, thus giving us a high degree of confidence in the delivery of cost targets.

2011 年和 2012 年，我們在北美的固定成本減少了超過 4 億美元。更重要的是，我們不僅在 2023 年 1 月才開始這項新的成本計劃。正如我們之前的財報電話會議中提到的，我們已在 2022 年下半年啟動了這項計劃。因此，基礎行動的成熟度顯著提高，從而使我們對實現成本目標充滿信心。

Now turning to Slide 5. I will provide an update on our strategic review of EMEA and our portfolio transformation. I am very happy with the EMEA transaction, its value creation and how it fits into the broader context of Whirlpool's portfolio transformation that we have been discussing. In April of 2022, we outlined how we would continue our multiyear journey of transforming Whirlpool into a high-growth, high-margin business.

現在轉到幻燈片 5。我將提供有關我們對 EMEA 的戰略審查和我們的投資組合轉型的最新信息。我對 EMEA 交易、它的價值創造以及它如何適應我們一直在討論的惠而浦投資組合轉型的更廣泛背景感到非常滿意。 2022 年 4 月，我們概述了我們將如何繼續將 Whirlpool 轉變為高增長、高利潤業務的多年旅程。

Let me first remind you why we are transforming our portfolio. As we sit here today, we are operating in a very different world than we were just 10 or 20 years ago. It is a less global world. Global scale was significant in the past, but we're now experiencing diminishing advantages of that. The benefits from regional and local scale have become even more apparent and compelling. At the same time, Whirlpool has raised the bar for long-term value creation.

首先讓我提醒您我們為什麼要轉變我們的投資組合。當我們今天坐在這裡時，我們所處的世界與 10 或 20 年前截然不同。這是一個不太全球化的世界。全球規模在過去非常重要，但我們現在正經歷著這種優勢的減弱。區域和地方規模的好處變得更加明顯和引人注目。與此同時，惠而浦提高了長期價值創造的標準。

It is with this mindset that we critically assess ourselves, and we are focused on transforming our portfolio into a high-margin, high-growth business. Recent actions include adding Insinkerater to our already strong brand portfolio, and agreeing to contribute our European major domestic appliance business into a newly formed entity with Arcelik.

正是本著這種心態，我們批判性地評估自己，我們專注於將我們的投資組合轉變為高利潤、高增長的業務。最近的行動包括將 Insinkerater 添加到我們已經強大的品牌組合中，並同意將我們的歐洲主要家用電器業務貢獻給與 Arcelik 新成立的實體。

As you can see, the portfolio transformation is ongoing, and we have made significant progress. I'm confident these actions have us well positioned to delivering growing shareholder value over time. As a reminder, as a result of our transactions we executed in 2022, we will see an increase in free cash flow of approximately $350 million in 2024.

如您所見，投資組合轉型正在進行中，我們取得了重大進展。我相信這些行動使我們有能力隨著時間的推移實現不斷增長的股東價值。提醒一下，由於我們在 2022 年執行的交易，我們將在 2024 年看到自由現金流增加約 3.5 億美元。

Now turning to Slide 6, I will share more about the strategic review of our EMEA business. We assessed a range of options with a goal of maximizing value for our shareholders, employees and consumers. We are pleased with the outcome of an agreement to contribute our European major domestic appliance business to a newly formed European appliance entity with Arcelik.

現在轉到幻燈片 6，我將分享更多關於我們 EMEA 業務的戰略審查。我們評估了一系列選擇，目標是為我們的股東、員工和消費者實現價值最大化。我們很高興與 Arcelik 達成協議，將我們的歐洲主要家用電器業務貢獻給新成立的歐洲電器實體。

Arcelik is a company where we know well, having executed a number of transactions with them. Our consumers will benefit from broad product and service offerings as we bring together the best of the best innovation, attractive brands and sustainable manufacturing. We will own approximately 25% of a new company, and we expect the transaction to close during the second half of 2023, subject to regulatory approvals.

Arcelik 是我們熟知的一家公司，與他們進行過多項交易。我們的消費者將從廣泛的產品和服務中受益，因為我們匯集了最好的創新、有吸引力的品牌和可持續製造。我們將擁有一家新公司約 25% 的股份，我們預計該交易將在 2023 年下半年完成，但需獲得監管部門的批准。

The new company is expected to have over EUR 6 billion of annual sales with over EUR 200 million of cost, synergies. It is important to note that we are retaining our ownership of our EMEA KitchenAid business. Our global KitchenAid Small Appliance business is one of the three strong pillars of our value-creating business model with a structurally attractive margin profile.

新公司預計年銷售額將超過 60 億歐元，成本和協同效應將超過 2 億歐元。重要的是要注意，我們保留對 EMEA KitchenAid 業務的所有權。我們的全球 KitchenAid 小家電業務是我們創造價值的業務模式的三大支柱之一，其利潤率結構具有吸引力。

Turning to Slide 7, I will discuss our value creation expectations from the actions we have taken in the EMEA region. We expect to participate in the significant efficiency the new company will generate, including sustained productivity building upon already established purchasing capabilities and continued commitment to product design, innovation and sustainability. We have a potential to unlock long-term value creation for our ability to monetize our minority interest at an estimated net present value of $500 million.

轉到幻燈片 7，我將討論我們在 EMEA 地區採取的行動對價值創造的期望。我們期望參與新公司將產生的顯著效率，包括在已經建立的採購能力和對產品設計、創新和可持續性的持續承諾的基礎上持續提高生產力。我們有潛力釋放長期價值創造，因為我們有能力以 5 億美元的估計淨現值將我們的少數股權貨幣化。

Even though we envision a long-term profitable relationship with Arcelik, a shareholder agreement includes a number of exit options at predetermined parameters after 5 years. Our 40-year Whirlpool brand licensing agreement will generate predictable cash flows of more than $20 million per year. Overall, we expect $750 million net present value of future cash flows.

儘管我們設想與 Arcelik 建立長期有利可圖的關係，但股東協議包括許多 5 年後預定參數的退出選項。我們為期 40 年的 Whirlpool 品牌許可協議每年將產生超過 2000 萬美元的可預測現金流。總體而言，我們預計未來現金流的淨現值為 7.5 億美元。

Separately, through the previously executed divestiture of our Russia business, we continue to expect up to $260 million of deferred payments. Now I'll turn it over to Jim to review our fourth quarter results.

另外，通過之前執行的俄羅斯業務剝離，我們繼續預計高達 2.6 億美元的延期付款。現在我將把它交給吉姆來審查我們的第四季度業績。

Thanks, Marc, and good morning, everyone. Turning to Slide 9. Our fourth quarter performance was impacted by a one-off supply chain disruption in North America and elevated cost inflation. Despite this, I want to highlight that our previously initiated cost actions remain on track. Additionally, raw material costs remain elevated, but we are beginning to see improvement.

謝謝，馬克，大家早上好。轉到幻燈片 9。我們第四季度的業績受到北美一次性供應鏈中斷和成本通脹上升的影響。儘管如此，我想強調的是，我們之前啟動的成本行動仍在進行中。此外，原材料成本仍然居高不下，但我們開始看到改善。

In the fourth quarter, we delivered ongoing EPS of $3.89 and ongoing margins of 3.5%, as results benefited from a full year adjusted effective tax rate of 4%. Turning to Slide 10. I'll review results for our North America region. As expected, the inflationary environment and increasing interest rates continue to weigh on demand and cost-based pricing actions partially offset elevated cost inflation.

在第四季度，我們實現了 3.89 美元的持續每股收益和 3.5% 的持續利潤率，這得益於全年調整後的有效稅率為 4%。轉到幻燈片 10。我將回顧我們北美地區的結果。正如預期的那樣，通貨膨脹環境和不斷上升的利率繼續對需求造成壓力，而基於成本的定價行動部分抵消了成本上漲的影響。

Our production volumes were impacted by approximately 5% due to a one-off supply chain disruption as mentioned before. This disruption involves one critical supplier providing a common platform of parts for multiple manufacturing locations and products and was resolved in mid-January. This disruption also negatively impacted price mix as we had previously committed investments in anticipation of value-creating holiday promotions. Given the confidential nature of the ongoing discussions with the supplier we will not share any additional information about this situation.

如前所述，由於一次性供應鏈中斷，我們的產量受到了大約 5% 的影響。這種中斷涉及一個關鍵供應商為多個製造地點和產品提供一個通用的零件平台，並於 1 月中旬得到解決。這種中斷也對價格組合產生了負面影響，因為我們之前承諾投資於預期創造價值的假期促銷活動。鑑於與供應商正在進行的討論的機密性，我們不會分享有關這種情況的任何其他信息。

Even with the supply challenges faced in the quarter, we successfully maintained our recent sequential quarterly share gains. We are confident that the actions we put in place have us positioned to win, and we remain confident in the structural strength of our North America business.

即使本季度面臨供應挑戰，我們仍成功保持了最近連續的季度份額增長。我們相信，我們採取的行動使我們有能力取勝，並且我們對北美業務的結構實力仍然充滿信心。

Turning to Slide 11. I'll review our results for our Europe, Middle East and Africa region. Excluding the impact of foreign currency and the divested Whirlpool Russia business, fourth quarter revenue was down approximately 9%. The region delivered breakeven EBIT margins during the quarter as cost-based pricing actions offset lower volumes and cost inflation. And as Marc mentioned, we completed our strategic review of EMEA. Until the close of the transaction, EMEA's performance will continue to be included in our ongoing results.

轉到幻燈片 11。我將回顧我們在歐洲、中東和非洲地區的結果。排除外彙和剝離的惠而浦俄羅斯業務的影響，第四季度收入下降約 9%。由於基於成本的定價行動抵消了較低的銷量和成本通脹，該地區在本季度實現了盈虧平衡的息稅前利潤率。正如馬克所說，我們完成了對 EMEA 的戰略審查。在交易結束之前，EMEA 的業績將繼續包含在我們的持續業績中。

Turning to Slide 12. I'll review results for our Latin America region. The region saw demand declines that were moderate compared to the steep declines experienced during the third quarter. The region's cost-based pricing and strong cost actions resulted in flat revenue and solid EBIT margins for the quarter.

轉到幻燈片 12。我將回顧我們拉丁美洲地區的結果。與第三季度經歷的急劇下降相比，該地區的需求下降幅度較小。該地區基於成本的定價和強有力的成本行動導致本季度收入持平，息稅前利潤率穩固。

Turning to Slide 13. I'll review results for our Asia region. On a full year basis, excluding the China business and the impact of foreign currency, revenue grew by approximately 5%. Cost-based pricing actions were more than offset by weaker demand and continued cost inflation resulting in an EBIT margin of 2.7%. Now I'll turn it over to Marc to discuss our perspective on 2023.

轉到幻燈片 13。我將回顧我們亞洲地區的結果。按全年計算，排除中國業務和外匯影響，收入增長約 5%。基於成本的定價行動被需求疲軟和持續的成本通脹所抵消，導致息稅前利潤率為 2.7%。現在我將把它交給馬克來討論我們對 2023 年的看法。

Thanks, Jim. Turning to Slide 15. I will share how we expect the current operating environment marked by softer demand and still elevated but easing costs to impact 2023. As we enter the new year, we continue to expect consumer sentiment to negatively impact demand. This is expected to be more pronounced at the beginning of the year, the first half demand to be down by 5% to 10%. And we expect demand will improve each quarter and to exit 2023 with flat industry volumes.

謝謝，吉姆。轉到幻燈片 15。我將分享我們對當前以需求疲軟為特徵的運營環境的預期，儘管成本仍然高企但成本下降將影響 2023 年。隨著我們進入新的一年，我們繼續預計消費者信心會對需求產生負面影響。預計這在年初會更加明顯，上半年需求將下降 5% 至 10%。我們預計需求每個季度都會有所改善，並在 2023 年結束時行業銷量持平。

We strongly believe in the favorable mid- and long-term demand tailwinds in particular in North America. The undersupplied aging housing stock is the oldest it has ever been, and we expect this will drive new construction demand in the mid- to long term. In the short term, the sharp increase in mortgage rates has suppressed existing home sales, but consumer equity remains very strong. As a result, we do expect a sustained high level of remodeling activities in the home and the kitchen in particular. Putting it differently, in the short term, consumers may be reluctant to buy a new house, but they will use the strong balance sheet to remodel their home.

我們堅信有利的中長期需求順風，尤其是在北美。供應不足的老舊住房存量是有史以來最舊的，我們預計這將在中長期推動新建築需求。短期內，抵押貸款利率的急劇上升抑制了現房銷售，但消費者資產仍然非常強勁。因此，我們確實希望在家庭，特別是廚房中進行持續高水平的改造活動。換句話說，在短期內，消費者可能不願意購買新房，但他們會利用強勁的資產負債表來改造他們的家。

From a go-to-market perspective, we expect 2023 promotional activity to be at similar levels as the second half of 2022. Also looking to the second half of 2023, we continue to expect the promotional environment to remain below pre-pandemic levels. From a raw materials perspective, we see raw material costs easing throughout the year. Steel spot rates have come down significantly, and we have started seeing the benefits of this in our annual contracts.

從上市的角度來看，我們預計 2023 年的促銷活動將與 2022 年下半年的水平相似。同樣展望 2023 年下半年，我們繼續預計促銷環境將保持在大流行前的水平以下。從原材料的角度來看，我們看到全年原材料成本都在下降。鋼鐵現貨價格大幅下降，我們已經開始在年度合同中看到這一點的好處。

We also see improvements in resins and ocean freight. At the same time, there are still a number of commodities such as nickel and strategic components where we are faced with persistent high-cost levels.

我們還看到樹脂和海運方面的改善。與此同時，我們仍然面臨著持續高成本水平的一些大宗商品，例如鎳和戰略零部件。

Turning to Slide 16. Our 2023 operational priorities are clear. First, we aim for flawless execution of our supply chain. And let me start out by stating a flawless execution is easier said than done. Our supply chain model has served us very well over many decades, but it is a cost efficiency driven supply chain model characterized by long transportation lanes from low-cost countries, a high degree of parts complexity and high percentage of single sourcing.

轉到幻燈片 16。我們 2023 年的運營重點很明確。首先，我們的目標是完美執行我們的供應鏈。讓我首先說明完美的執行說起來容易做起來難。幾十年來，我們的供應鏈模式為我們提供了很好的服務，但它是一種成本效率驅動的供應鏈模式，其特點是來自低成本國家的運輸路線長、零部件高度複雜和單一採購比例高。

This historic supply chain model is cost efficient, but has not been resilient enough to cope with the unprecedented COVID-related volatility and disruptions. Over the past 2 years, we have reduced our parts complexity from well over 110,000 active parts to slightly more than 70,000 active parts.

這種歷史悠久的供應鏈模式具有成本效益，但還沒有足夠的彈性來應對與 COVID 相關的前所未有的波動和中斷。在過去 2 年中，我們已將零件的複雜性從 110,000 多個活動零件減少到略多於 70,000 個活動零件。

In the midterm, we do see a path to drive this number to well below 50,000 parts. At the same time, we significantly expanded our dual sourcing from single sourcing. We put our priority on high-value strategic parts and components and have come a long way in derisking this part of our supply chain but we still have a tail end of lower-value parts that are single source. This will be our focus in the coming months and years.

在中期，我們確實看到了將這一數字推至遠低於 50,000 件的途徑。同時，我們從單一採購顯著擴展了雙重採購。我們將重點放在高價值的戰略零部件上，並在降低供應鏈這一部分的風險方面取得了很大進展，但我們仍然有單一來源的低價值零部件的尾端。這將是我們未來幾個月和幾年的重點。

As mentioned before, our second operational priority is a cost reduction of $800 million to $900 million. We expect to deliver $500 million in net cost takeout actions by removing over $250 million of premium costs and inefficiencies from our supply chain operations, and continuing to be disciplined in our discretionary spending and headcount management. Compared to the summer of 2022, our current global salaried workforce is already down by 4% and we will remain very disciplined throughout 2023.

如前所述，我們的第二個運營重點是將成本降低 8 億至 9 億美元。我們希望通過從我們的供應鏈運營中消除超過 2.5 億美元的溢價成本和低效率，並繼續在我們的可自由支配支出和人員管理方面保持紀律，從而實現 5 億美元的淨成本削減行動。與 2022 年夏季相比，我們目前的全球受薪勞動力已經下降了 4%，我們將在整個 2023 年保持紀律嚴明。

In addition to these net cost takeout actions, we do expect $300 million to $400 million in raw material cost reductions adding up to $800 million to $900 million total cost target. As you look at the seasonality of this cost reduction, you will note that it is more skewed towards the second half of 2023.

除了這些淨成本削減行動外，我們確實預計原材料成本將減少 3 億至 4 億美元，總成本目標將達到 8 億至 9 億美元。當您查看這種成本降低的季節性時，您會注意到它更傾向於 2023 年下半年。

There are three factors explaining the seasonality, which specifically impacts Q1. First, it's important to remember where we have higher cost inventory as we enter 2023, creating a lagging effect of easing raw materials. Putting it differently, even though costs are coming down because of inventory, it normally takes about 2 months to see this fully reflected in our P&L.

解釋季節性的三個因素，特別影響第一季度。首先，重要的是要記住，隨著我們進入 2023 年，我們的庫存成本會更高，從而產生寬鬆原材料的滯後效應。換句話說，即使成本因庫存而下降，通常也需要大約 2 個月的時間才能完全反映在我們的損益表中。

Second, we're lapping periods of lower year-over-year inflation as cost increases peaked in the third quarter of 2022. Third, as you may recall, we have a variety of material contract lanes with quarterly and annual durations, which creates somewhat of a lack. Now with many of our annual contract negotiations now complete, we have line of sight to deliver $300 million to $400 million of raw material cost benefit in 2023. Now I'll turn it over to Jim to discuss our full year 2023 guidance on Slide 17.

其次，隨著成本增長在 2022 年第三季度達到頂峰，我們正在經歷通脹同比下降的時期。第三，您可能還記得，我們有各種期限為季度和年度的重大合同通道，這在一定程度上創造了的缺乏。現在，我們的許多年度合同談判現已完成，我們有望在 2023 年實現 3 億至 4 億美元的原材料成本效益。現在我將把它交給吉姆，討論我們在幻燈片 17 上的 2023 年全年指導意見.

Thanks, Marc. I'll review our full year 2023 guidance. In 2023, we expect a revenue decline of 1% to 2%, given softer consumer demand and sentiment, most notably in North America and EMEA, especially as the first half of 2023 continues to reflect the current macro cycles. As we reset our cost structure, we expect to expand ongoing EBIT margins to approximately 7.5% and deliver approximately $800 million in free cash flow.

謝謝，馬克。我將回顧我們的 2023 年全年指南。鑑於消費者需求和情緒疲軟，尤其是在北美和歐洲、中東和非洲地區，我們預計 2023 年收入將下降 1% 至 2%，尤其是在 2023 年上半年繼續反映當前宏觀週期的情況下。隨著我們重新調整成本結構，我們預計將持續的息稅前利潤率擴大至約 7.5%，並提供約 8 億美元的自由現金流。

Our free cash flow delivery could be significantly impacted by the timing of the close of the EMEA transaction alongside the seasonality of cash generation from the region. We expect our ongoing tax rate to be 14% to 16% and our interest cost to be approximately $325 million, which reflects the incremental debt from the Insinkerater acquisition. This represents a full year ongoing EPS range of $16 to $18.

我們的自由現金流交付可能會受到 EMEA 交易結束時間以及該地區現金產生的季節性的重大影響。我們預計我們的持續稅率為 14% 至 16%，我們的利息成本約為 3.25 億美元，這反映了 Insinkerater 收購帶來的增量債務。這代表全年每股收益在 16 美元至 18 美元之間。

Turning to Slide 18. We show the drivers of our full year ongoing EBIT margin guidance. We expect price/mix to be negatively impacted by 225 basis points. As our availability improves, we expect to participate in value-creating promotions partially offset by positive mix driven by a strong lineup of new product introductions.

轉到幻燈片 18。我們展示了我們全年持續的 EBIT 利潤率指導的驅動因素。我們預計價格/組合將受到 225 個基點的負面影響。隨著我們可用性的提高，我們希望參與創造價值的促銷活動，部分抵消了由強大的新產品推出陣容驅動的積極組合。

Next, as we execute $500 million of strong cost takeout actions throughout the year, alongside raw material benefits, we expect a positive 425 basis point impact to margins. Continued investments in marketing and technology alongside currency headwinds are expected to negatively impact margins by 125 basis points.

接下來，隨著我們全年執行 5 億美元的強有力的成本削減行動，以及原材料收益，我們預計對利潤率產生 425 個基點的積極影響。市場營銷和技術的持續投資以及貨幣逆風預計將對利潤率產生 125 個基點的負面影響。

As we navigate temporary demand declines, an easing inflationary environment and execute our decisive cost takeout actions, we expect to deliver approximately 35% to 40% of our earnings in the first half of the year. We are confident that we have the right actions in place to navigate this macro environment and deliver approximately 7.5% EBIT margins.

隨著我們應對暫時的需求下降、通貨膨脹環境緩和並執行我們果斷的成本削減行動，我們預計今年上半年將實現約 35% 至 40% 的收益。我們相信，我們已採取正確的行動來駕馭這種宏觀環境，並實現約 7.5% 的息稅前利潤率。

Turning to Slide 19, we show our regional guidance for the year. Starting with industry demand, we expect most of our regions to continue to be impacted by a subdued demand environment, particularly during the first part of the year as consumer sentiment is still impacted by the macro environment.

轉到幻燈片 19，我們展示了我們今年的區域指導。從行業需求開始，我們預計我們的大部分地區將繼續受到需求環境低迷的影響，尤其是在今年上半年，因為消費者情緒仍受到宏觀環境的影響。

In North America and EMEA, we expect a contraction of 4% to 6%. And in Latin America, we expect a contraction of 1% to 3%. In Asia, we expect industry to accelerate by 2% to 4%. Despite the expected declines, we expect industry volumes, particularly in North America, to be approximately 6% above 2019 levels. We expect EBIT margin expansion across all regions, driven by our strong cost takeout actions as well as raw material inflation tailwinds.

在北美和歐洲、中東和非洲，我們預計收縮 4% 至 6%。在拉丁美洲，我們預計收縮 1% 至 3%。在亞洲，我們預計工業將加速 2% 至 4%。儘管預計會下降，但我們預計行業銷量，尤其是北美的銷量，將比 2019 年的水平高出約 6%。我們預計在我們強有力的成本削減行動以及原材料通脹順風的推動下，所有地區的息稅前利潤率都會擴大。

In North America, we expect to deliver full year margins of approximately 12%, with the region exiting the year with margins of approximately 14%. We expect EMEA to deliver approximately 2.5% margins. In Latin America, we expect to deliver EBIT margins of approximately 7% as cost takeout actions are partially offset by continued macroeconomic and geopolitical volatility impacting demand. Lastly, we expect EBIT margins of approximately 5.5% in Asia, driven by top line growth and strong cost takeout actions.

在北美，我們預計全年利潤率約為 12%，而該地區年底的利潤率約為 14%。我們預計歐洲、中東和非洲地區的利潤率約為 2.5%。在拉丁美洲，我們預計息稅前利潤率約為 7%，因為成本削減行動部分被影響需求的持續宏觀經濟和地緣政治波動所抵消。最後，我們預計亞洲的息稅前利潤率約為 5.5%，這得益於收入增長和強有力的成本削減行動。

Now turning to Slide 20. I'll discuss our capital allocation priorities which remain unchanged. We have invested over $5 billion in capital expenditures and research and development over the last 5 years, reflecting our commitment to deliver a high-growth, high-margin business. During that same time period, we have returned over $5 billion cash to shareholders, including $900 million of buybacks in 2022 and a 25% increase in our quarterly dividend, representing the tenth straight year of dividend increases and nearly the 70th consecutive year of paying dividends.

現在轉到幻燈片 20。我將討論我們保持不變的資本分配優先事項。過去 5 年，我們在資本支出和研發方面的投資超過 50 億美元，反映了我們致力於提供高增長、高利潤業務的承諾。在同一時期，我們向股東返還了超過 50 億美元的現金，包括 2022 年的 9 億美元回購和季度股息增加 25%，這是連續第十年增加股息和接近連續第 70 年支付股息.

The continued strength of our balance sheet with $2 billion of cash at the end of the year, has given us the flexibility and optionality to pursue value-creating opportunities like the acquisition of Insinkerater in 2022. In 2023, we are prioritizing debt repayment driving an optimal capital structure and maintaining our strong investment-grade credit rating. Now I'll turn the call over to Marc.

我們的資產負債表在年底擁有 20 億美元的現金，這使我們擁有靈活性和選擇性來尋求創造價值的機會，例如在 2022 年收購 Insinkerater。在 2023 年，我們將優先償還債務，推動優化資本結構並維持我們強大的投資級信用評級。現在我會把電話轉給馬克。

Thanks, Jim. Turning to Slide 21. Let me close with a few remarks. In our 111-year history, we have built a proven track record of successfully operating through challenging macro cycles, and we're confident in our ability to deliver margin expansion in 2023. We will flawlessly execute on our supply chain initiatives, while our reset cost structure is expected to deliver $800 million to $900 million of benefit. In addition to these actions, the ongoing portfolio transformation will unlock value and enhance our financial profile.

謝謝，吉姆。轉到幻燈片 21。讓我以幾點說明結束。在我們 111 年的歷史中，我們已經建立了在充滿挑戰的宏觀週期中成功運營的良好記錄，我們有信心在 2023 年實現利潤率擴張。我們將完美地執行我們的供應鏈計劃，同時我們的重置成本結構預計將帶來 8 億至 9 億美元的收益。除了這些行動之外，正在進行的投資組合轉型將釋放價值並改善我們的財務狀況。

With the addition of incinerator and the MEA divestiture, we expect to deliver approximately $350 million of incremental free cash flow in 2024. The MEA transaction alone is expected to deliver a 200-basis point improvement to return on invested capital. along at a 150-basis point improvement in ongoing EBIT margin. These improvements, coupled with a healthy balance sheet of a foundation of our firm commitment to returning cash to shareholders.

隨著焚化爐的增加和 MEA 資產的剝離，我們預計 2024 年將提供約 3.5 億美元的增量自由現金流。僅 MEA 交易就有望使投資資本回報率提高 200 個基點。持續的息稅前利潤率提高了 150 個基點。這些改進，加上健康的資產負債表，是我們堅定承諾向股東返還現金的基礎。

Let me remind you 2022 represents our tenth consecutive year of dividend increases with a 25% increase to our quarterly dividend. Additionally, we repurchased $900 million in shares, returning a total of $1.3 billion in cash to our shareholders. Also, in the future, we will continue to maintain a solid balance sheet while providing attractive returns to our shareholders. We are well positioned competitively, seeing favorable market share trends and will continue to benefit from long-term demand tailwinds to our industry. Now we will end our formal remarks and open it up for questions.

讓我提醒您，2022 年是我們連續第十年增加股息，季度股息增加 25%。此外，我們回購了 9 億美元的股票，向股東返還了總計 13 億美元的現金。此外，在未來，我們將繼續保持穩健的資產負債表，同時為股東提供有吸引力的回報。我們在競爭中處於有利地位，看到有利的市場份額趨勢，並將繼續受益於我們行業的長期需求順風。現在我們將結束我們的正式發言並開始提問。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of David MacGregor from Longbow Research.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自 Longbow Research 的 David MacGregor。

I guess sort of a 2-part question. On Slide 21, you talk about setting yourself after 2024. I'm just wondering, are you kind of providing kind of a high-level view that by 2024, you think you can get to 11% to 12% ongoing EBIT margins? And -- or is that just you feel like you can make progress towards that goal? Second part, really I just want you to comment on what happened in the fourth quarter promotionally. There are a lot of programs there. You've said in the past, you don't expect promotional activity to revert to pre-pandemic levels. You still feel this to be true? And if so, what are you seeing that gives you confidence in that view in your second half price/mix expectations?

我想這是一個由兩部分組成的問題。在幻燈片 21 上，您談到了在 2024 年之後設定自己。我只是想知道，您是否提供了一種高級觀點，即到 2024 年，您認為您可以達到 11% 到 12% 的持續息稅前利潤率？而且——或者只是你覺得你可以朝著這個目標取得進展？第二部分，我真的只是想讓你評論一下第四季度促銷活動中發生的事情。那裡有很多節目。您過去曾說過，您不希望促銷活動恢復到大流行前的水平。你還覺得這是真的嗎？如果是這樣，您看到什麼讓您對下半價/混合預期的觀點充滿信心？

So David, let me first address the first question. Obviously, we're just giving guidance for '23. So it's a little bit too early to give a guidance for '24. Having said that, I think you're correct in the read that there's a lot of positive elements which will come through in '24. First of all, as you heard from my prepared remarks, there's a lot of reason to believe that consumer demand and particularly U.S. housing as it exits will head into much stronger years because, as you know, there's fundamentally structurally undersupplied housing market in North America, but not only in North America, which at one point will materialize. So that's on the demand side. Also on the cost side, with a heavy lifting, which we're doing now on the cost reduction, we will reset our cost base, which will set us up very well for '24. In addition, we have other elements. You have the full contribution of integrator on the margins and cash flow. And assuming that we can close the European transaction, that on its own will give an additional lift on cash flow and by definition, on margins as you look at the total company. So with all of that in mind, yes, in '24, I would say, we're much more confident where we're heading towards these long-term shareholder value creation targets, which we set out. So -- and I think '24 from that perspective will be a critical proof point and at this point, we're pretty confident towards that.

大衛，讓我先回答第一個問題。顯然，我們只是為 23 年提供指導。因此，現在為 24 年提供指導還為時過早。話雖如此，我認為你的解讀是正確的，即 24 年將出現很多積極因素。首先，正如你從我準備好的發言中聽到的那樣，有很多理由相信消費者需求，尤其是美國房地產退出後將進入更強勁的年份，因為正如你所知，北美的房地產市場從根本上來說存在結構性供應不足，但不僅在北美，這在某一時刻將會實現。所以這是在需求方面。同樣在成本方面，通過我們現在正在降低成本方面所做的繁重工作，我們將重置我們的成本基礎，這將使我們為 24 年做好準備。此外，我們還有其他元素。您擁有集成商對利潤和現金流的全部貢獻。並假設我們可以完成歐洲交易，這本身將進一步提升現金流，並且根據定義，當您查看整個公司時，會增加利潤率。因此，考慮到所有這些，是的，在 24 年，我會說，我們更有信心朝著我們設定的這些長期股東價值創造目標邁進。所以 - 我認為從這個角度來看，'24 將是一個關鍵的證明點，在這一點上，我們對此非常有信心。

And your second question related to promotion, I would say, David, as we absorbed the entire back half of '22, it was by and large pretty much as we anticipated, i.e., we expected and we always expected a higher level of promotion to essentially a previous period where which was completely absent promotion. But it's still important to note that even what we saw in the back half of '22, it was quite a bit less than pre-COVID. So I would call it right now, we were faced with a moderate promotional environment. And from what you heard from my prepared remarks, we expect a similar environment also as we look in '23.

你的第二個問題與晉升有關，我想說，大衛，當我們吸收了 22 年的整個後半部分時，它基本上與我們預期的差不多，即我們期望並且我們一直期望更高級別的晉升到基本上是完全沒有促銷的前一個時期。但仍然需要注意的是，即使我們在 22 年下半年看到的情況，也比 COVID 之前少很多。所以我現在就稱之為，我們面臨著適度的促銷環境。從你從我準備好的發言中聽到的內容來看，我們期望在 23 年看到類似的環境。

Your next question comes from the line of Sam Darkatsh from Raymond James.

你的下一個問題來自 Raymond James 的 Sam Darkatsh。

Two, I guess, themes to my questions. First would be around EMEA. I think normally, EMEA is much more profitable seasonally in the second half than it is the first half. I'm assuming that's going to occur in '23 also. And I think it looks like you're including EMEA throughout the entirety of the year. So what's the likelihood or what's the general quantification if the transaction does close as you expect for incremental dilution to EPS guidance from the absence of a profitable EMEA in the back half? And then Marc, if you could also talk about the terms of the options that Arcelik has after 5 years. I didn't see it in the filings. Just trying to get a sense to ascertain the likelihood of an $800 million transaction or a $500 million PV?

我想，我的問題有兩個主題。首先是圍繞 EMEA。我認為通常情況下，EMEA 在下半年的季節性盈利要比上半年高得多。我假設這也將發生在 23 年。而且我認為看起來你全年都在包括 EMEA。那麼，如果交易確實如您預期的那樣結束，由於後半部分缺乏盈利的 EMEA，對 EPS 指導的增量稀釋，那麼可能性或一般量化是什麼？然後是 Marc，如果你也可以談談 Arcelik 在 5 年後擁有的期權條款。我沒有在文件中看到它。只是想了解一下確定 8 億美元交易或 5 億美元 PV 的可能性？

Let me first address the first one on what is in the guidance and how the guidance might be impacted by the closure of the transaction. First of all, on a high level to keep it simple. The timing of the transaction will probably impact the EPS to a much less extent on the cash flow. There is more moving parts, and that's just driven by more historically, we never show regional cash flows, but European cash flow throughout the year is much more volatility than the other regions, i.e., pretty big cash drain and then cash build towards the back half. So depending on when we close it, that has more of an impact on cash flow and a much less impact on EPS. On the principal profit seasonality also keep here in mind, yes, Europe is a little bit more skewed towards Q3 and Q4. And but that is largely driven by the very profitable KitchenAid small domestic appliance business, which similar to North America has a heavy share of Q3 and Q4 sales. So if a transaction closes, keep in mind that part of the business stays with us, that should not impact the EPS that much. So -- and that's probably also by depending on where you potentially close it Q3 or whatever, I don't expect a major impact on EPS from everything which we see today.

首先讓我談談第一個關於指南中的內容以及交易結束可能如何影響指南的問題。首先，在高層次上保持簡單。交易的時間對每股收益的影響可能對現金流的影響要小得多。有更多的變動部分，這只是受更多歷史驅動，我們從不顯示區域現金流量，但歐洲全年的現金流量比其他地區波動性大得多，即相當大的現金流失，然後現金積累到後面一半。因此，取決於我們何時關閉它，這對現金流的影響更大，對每股收益的影響要小得多。在主要利潤季節性方面也請記住，是的，歐洲更傾向於第三季度和第四季度。但這在很大程度上是由利潤豐厚的 KitchenAid 小型家用電器業務推動的，該業務與北美類似，在第三季度和第四季度的銷售額中佔有很大份額。因此，如果交易結束，請記住，部分業務仍在我們手中，這不會對每股收益產生太大影響。所以——這也可能取決於你可能在哪里關閉它第三季度或其他什麼，我預計我們今天看到的一切不會對 EPS 產生重大影響。

To your second question as it relates to the terms of the transaction, particular shareholder agreement, I think you will understand what we will not reveal all the details of the transaction, but let me assure you, as we discussed after 5 years, where multiple exit opportunities defined in the shareholder agreement, the terms, including a potential EBITDA multiple are defined. So it's pretty clear in terms of what the valuation could be. At the same time, and that's why what you see behind this 500-millimeter by way is a discounted value up the 5-year. But I also want to underline what I said in the earnings or in my prepared remarks is -- we have a long-term potential profitable relationship in mines. But of course, as you would expect us, there are various terms of a potential exit predefined and predetermined. So there is no negotiation down the road.

關於你的第二個問題，因為它涉及交易條款，特別是股東協議，我想你會明白我們不會透露交易的所有細節，但讓我向你保證，正如我們在 5 年後討論的那樣，其中多個股東協議中定義的退出機會，條款，包括潛在的 EBITDA 倍數。因此，就估值可能是多少而言，這一點非常清楚。同時，這就是為什麼您在這 500 毫米的背後看到的是 5 年的貼現值。但我也想強調我在財報或準備好的發言中所說的——我們在礦山方面擁有長期潛在的盈利關係。但是，當然，正如您所期望的那樣，有各種預定義和預定的潛在退出條款。所以沒有談判在路上。

If I could sneak another question as it relates to the raws, the $300 million to $400 million tailwind that you've identified. Typically, the biggest variable intrayear is oil and resins, and I'm sure that's another variable this year. But are there other variables such as steel that could play a role into the $300 million to $400 million being above or below that, i.e., are you having more of your steel off contracts and on contracts plus something along those lines?

如果我能偷偷提出另一個問題，因為它與原材料有關，你已經確定了 3 億到 4 億美元的順風。通常，年內最大的變量是石油和樹脂，我相信這是今年的另一個變量。但是是否還有其他變量，例如鋼鐵，可以在 3 億至 4 億美元的價格之上或之下發揮作用，即，您是否有更多的鋼鐵非合同和合同以及類似的東西？

Sam successfully sneaked in a third question. But anyhow, let me try to address it. At this point of view, you always have a certain amount of uncertainty or volatility in your forecast. Having said that, and you know that very well. Our biggest procured item is steel. Steel are on big regions on annual contracts. And today, as we're sitting here January 31, we pretty much have closed all contracts. Now there's one contract which technically expires in Q1, which has a little bit of a lag effect. So for contractual terms, which, as you know, this is not a hedging contract, but they are 1-year contract, well defined, and that gives us a very high confidence that on the steel side, we shouldn't see major surprises. You always have a little bit a lagging item and the spot rates move. But again, that's a very smooth element in terms of a smooth impact on our overall P&L. Resins, as you rightly pointed out, is our typical quarterly contracts, annual contracts, which ultimately is, I would say, loosely correlated with the oil price. So there's a little bit more moving parts on the resin side. But frankly, already, we saw largely some benefits. We see it also in Q1, some benefits that right now looks pretty stable. Having said that, there's -- as you also know, there is a number of commodities out there, which still are subject to wide variation. I mean, right now, it's trying to buy glass. Glass is impacted by lithium, et cetera, which has a higher spot price a couple of smaller items, which impact us in total, not that much, but they're still moving elements, and that always drives a certain amount of uncertainty. If you completely zoom out, Sam, and you've observed us for many years, of a total $800 million to $900 million, given where we are in the year, I would say we have right now a 70% to 80% fill rate of our actions, which is actually pretty high compared to other years. So we feel, as we sit here today, with a high degree of confidence we will hit this $800 million to $900 million.

山姆成功地偷偷提出了第三個問題。但無論如何，讓我嘗試解決它。從這個角度來看，您的預測總是有一定的不確定性或波動性。話雖如此，你很清楚這一點。我們最大的採購項目是鋼鐵。鋼鐵在大區域的年度合同上。今天，當我們 1 月 31 日坐在這裡時，我們幾乎已經完成了所有合同。現在有一份合同在技術上在第一季度到期，這有一點滯後效應。所以對於合同條款，如你所知，這不是對沖合同，但它們是 1 年期合同，定義明確，這讓我們非常有信心在鋼鐵方面，我們不應該看到重大意外.你總是有一點滯後的項目和即期匯率移動。但同樣，就對我們整體損益的平穩影響而言，這是一個非常平穩的因素。正如您正確指出的那樣，樹脂是我們典型的季度合約、年度合約，我想說，它最終與油價鬆散相關。所以在樹脂方面有更多的活動部件。但坦率地說，我們已經在很大程度上看到了一些好處。我們也在第一季度看到了它，現在看起來相當穩定的一些好處。話雖如此，正如你所知，有許多商品仍然存在很大差異。我的意思是，現在，它正試圖購買玻璃。玻璃受到鋰等因素的影響，鋰和其他一些較小的物品的現貨價格較高，這對我們的影響總體上並不大，但它們仍然是移動的元素，並且總是帶來一定程度的不確定性。如果你完全縮小，Sam，你已經觀察了我們很多年，總計 8 億到 9 億美元，考慮到我們當年的情況，我想說我們現在有 70% 到 80% 的填充率我們的行動，與其他年份相比實際上是相當高的。因此，當我們今天坐在這裡時，我們感到非常有信心我們將達到這 8 億至 9 億美元。

Yes. Sam, maybe just to add a little bit to what Marc says is some of that confidence comes from many of these are due to actions we executed during 2022. And so we're already beginning to see that in our exit run rate. And then additionally, if you look at the material environment and as Marc said, this is our best estimate right now, but over the last couple of years in a volatile environment, we've been pretty good at putting an estimate around what we think materials will do for the year. So we feel good about all of those numbers.

是的。山姆，也許只是對馬克所說的補充一點，其中許多信心來自於我們在 2022 年期間執行的行動。因此我們已經開始在我們的退出運行率中看到這一點。此外，如果你看看物質環境，正如 Marc 所說，這是我們目前最好的估計，但在過去幾年中，在動蕩的環境中，我們一直非常擅長圍繞我們的想法進行估計一年的材料就夠用了。所以我們對所有這些數字都感覺良好。

Your next question comes from the line of Mike Rehaut from JPMorgan.

你的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Mike Rehaut。

First, I'd love to dive in a little bit to the assumptions you're making in 2023 for Insinkerater. I know that for sometimes in prior acquisitions, divestitures here, sometimes have been a little more hesitant to break out the impact of acquisitions. But given the $3 billion purchase price, I think it would be really helpful for investors to understand what the contribution is expected in 2023 on sales and margins and on a quarterly basis in the upcoming year to kind of give us a sense of how the acquisition is doing, I think, would be very, very helpful.

首先，我想深入探討一下您在 2023 年為 Insinkerater 所做的假設。我知道，有時在之前的收購中，在這裡剝離，有時對打破收購的影響有點猶豫。但考慮到 30 億美元的收購價格，我認為這對投資者了解 2023 年對銷售額和利潤率的預期貢獻以及來年每個季度的貢獻將非常有幫助，讓我們了解收購的方式我認為，這樣做會非常非常有幫助。

Mike, this is Jim. And maybe I'd start with when we acquired Insinkerater, we talked about it having revenues above $600 million, and we expect it to continue in that range and continue to grow it. We've said that the margins are above our average and very strong margins, and we expect that. On a total basis, we think net of interest and everything, but with the tax benefits, it gives us about $1 of additional EPS as we go into 2023. But it also gives us $100 million plus of free cash flow, and that's the good thing about this business. And part of the reason why we bought it is a very consistent performer, but also a very consistent generator of cash. And so that's what we expect right now headed into 2023 based on what we've seen in our first 2 months of ownership.

邁克，這是吉姆。也許我會從我們收購 Insinkerater 開始，我們談到它的收入超過 6 億美元，我們預計它會繼續保持在這個範圍內並繼續增長。我們已經說過，利潤率高於我們的平均水平，而且利潤率非常高，我們預計會這樣。總的來說，我們認為扣除利息和一切，但加上稅收優惠，到 2023 年，它給我們帶來了大約 1 美元的額外每股收益。但它也給了我們 1 億美元以上的自由現金流，這是好的關於這項業務的事情。我們購買它的部分原因是它的表現非常穩定，同時也是非常穩定的現金來源。因此，根據我們在擁有所有權的頭兩個月中所看到的情況，這就是我們現在進入 2023 年的預期。

And Michael, it's Marc. Just to add to this one. It's now 2 or 3 months where we have ownership of this one. I would say, first of all, from an environment, it's Insinkerater plays in the same kitchen as we have our major appliances. So the same external environment, which we described earlier also applies to that segment. So the demand environment for the first half will be soft, and we expect some pickup in the back half. Having said all that, the most important thing, the -- this is a high-margin business, and we saw very impressive stability and sustainability of the margins, both in the first 2 months -- or last 2 months of '22 and the first month of '23. So March looked very good. And then more from an operational perspective, there is a major and is segment, you don't have product innovations every year, but there's a major generation of product innovation coming in April, May. And honestly, from outside, I never thought you could be excited about garbage disposal, but I did. So that is a very, very exciting product, which comes out in April, May. It brings us not only high consumer benefits, but also a further cost reduction this month. So we feel very strong about this business from a structural run rate from a product pipeline and particularly once the housing picks up, which it will do at one point, we will really like this business.

邁克爾，是馬克。只是為了添加到這個。現在我們擁有這一個的所有權是 2 或 3 個月。我會說，首先，從環境上來說，Insinkerater 在我們擁有主要電器的同一個廚房裡玩耍。因此，我們之前描述的相同外部環境也適用於該細分市場。因此上半年的需求環境將會疲軟，我們預計下半年會有所回升。話雖如此，最重要的是——這是一項高利潤業務，我們看到利潤率的穩定性和可持續性非常令人印象深刻，無論是在前兩個月——還是在 22 世紀的最後兩個月和23 年的第一個月。所以三月看起來非常好。然後更多地從運營的角度來看，有一個主要的細分市場，你不會每年都有產品創新，但在 4 月、5 月會有一代產品創新。老實說，從外面看，我從沒想過你會對垃圾處理感到興奮，但我做到了。所以這是一個非常非常令人興奮的產品，它會在四月、五月問世。給我們帶來的不僅是高消費效益，還有本月成本的進一步降低。因此，從產品管道的結構性運行率來看，我們對這項業務感到非常強烈，特別是一旦住房回升，它會在某一時刻完成，我們將非常喜歡這項業務。

Okay. I appreciate it. I guess, secondly, you gave out guidance, I believe, saying that 35% to 40% of your earnings would be in the first half. When I look at Slide 16 and I see that you're not going to have the benefits really start until in 2Q in terms of the cost takeout and raw material benefits. But you do have first quarter being kind of flattish year-over-year. How should I think about first quarter EBIT or margins versus fourth quarter, if you're not having any incremental headwinds, should we expect to see any type of significant improvement on a margin basis sequentially? And then I think also, lastly, I just want to make sure I heard right. You talked about North America being at 14% by the end of the year. I'm just not sure if you're intending to say that all else equal, that could be a starting point for 2024. I know you're not talking about 2024 yet, but just making sure I understand that 14% comment correctly.

好的。我很感激。我想，其次，我相信你給出了指導，說你的收入的 35% 到 40% 將在上半年。當我查看幻燈片 16 時，我發現在成本支出和原材料收益方面，您要到第二季度才能真正開始受益。但是你確實有第一季度同比持平。我應該如何考慮第一季度的息稅前利潤或利潤率與第四季度相比，如果你沒有任何增量逆風，我們是否應該期望在利潤率基礎上看到任何類型的顯著改善？然後我想，最後，我只是想確保我沒聽錯。你談到北美到今年年底將達到 14%。我只是不確定你是否打算說其他條件相同，這可能是 2024 年的起點。我知道你還沒有談論 2024 年，但只是確保我正確理解 14% 的評論。

Yes, Michael, this is Jim, and I'll get started, then I'll let Marc kind of add to it. But if you look at the seasonality and what you're referencing on Slide 16, what you have to remember in the first quarter of the year is, one, we have a higher cost layer of inventory right now. That's just in if you think about when we have close to 2 months of inventory on hand, that will work through our system through the first quarter and then we begin to realize the benefit of the lower material cost as you exit Q1 and into Q2. So your question on sequential margin improvement, yes, we expect to see that. Second is, as I mentioned, many of our cost reduction programs were put in place in 2022, but we continue to put more in place in early 2023. So you'll see a ramp-up of the additional cost savings beyond materials that will help the margin. So again, as we looked at it and said, we think about 35% to 40% of the earnings comes in the first half of the year. And then those are the big drivers that take it out later in the year. We also expect the demand environment to be a little bit more negative year-over-year in the first half of the year and then more stable on a year-over-year basis in the second half of the year. To your question on the NAR margins, too, if you think about the different things we've talked about, whether it's the material, that does have a significant impact on NAR, so we do expect those margins to ramp up throughout the year. Additionally, in the first quarter, you have a small tail of just dealing with some of the issues we had in Q4 that we now say are behind us, but they were resolved in January. So that also will have an impact on the NAR margins in Q1. but then it began to improve throughout the year.

是的，Michael，我是 Jim，我先開始，然後讓 Marc 補充一下。但是如果你看看季節性和你在幻燈片 16 上引用的內容，你在今年第一季度必須記住的是，我們現在有更高的庫存成本層。如果你考慮一下當我們手頭有近 2 個月的庫存時，這將在第一季度通過我們的系統運作，然後我們開始意識到當你退出第一季度並進入第二季度時較低材料成本的好處。所以你關於連續利潤率改善的問題，是的，我們希望看到這一點。其次，正如我提到的，我們的許多成本削減計劃已在 2022 年實施，但我們將在 2023 年初繼續實施更多成本。因此，除了材料之外，您會看到額外成本節約的增加，這將幫助保證金。因此，正如我們所說，我們認為今年上半年約有 35% 至 40% 的收益來自。然後那些是在今年晚些時候將其淘汰的主要驅動因素。我們還預計，今年上半年的需求環境將比去年同期略微消極，然後在下半年同比更加穩定。對於你關於 NAR 利潤率的問題，如果你考慮我們討論過的不同事情，無論是材料，這確實對 NAR 產生重大影響，所以我們確實預計這些利潤率全年都會上升。此外，在第一季度，你有一小部分只是處理我們在第四季度遇到的一些問題，我們現在說這些問題已經過去了，但它們在 1 月份得到了解決。因此，這也會對第一季度的 NAR 利潤率產生影響。但隨後全年開始好轉。

So Michael, let me just specifically add on the North America margins. And of course, the North America margins may drive the company margins. As you rightfully pointed out, on a full year basis, last year, we had 11.5% margin in North America, and we now guide towards 12%. So on a full year base, it doesn't look like a big move. But given the volatility we all experienced for the last couple of years, right now, it's probably more of a sequential view, which makes sense as opposed to year-over-year. So on a sequential basis, we had in Q4, 5.8%, which we always said are not representative of our structural run rate. The important thing is what Jim alluded to, we had two specific elements in our Q4 margin. One was still the tail end of a production reduction, which we explained in the last earnings call. And two, was this one-off supply issue. Put a number behind these ones, that's roughly about $100 million profit impact. So by definition, you should have the absence of this one in Q1. So add this to the margin which we had in Q4, and then you probably get to a margin of 8-plus percent. To be clear, this is not a guidance, but that's what you should expect, and that's what we would expect from our internal run rate. So you will see sequentially a significant margin expansion in Q1 and then throughout the year as the raw material benefits start kicking in, as we explained on Page 16, every quarter, we would see a sequential margin improvement with exit run rate, which has been getting much closer again to our long-term value creation targets.

所以邁克爾，讓我特別補充一下北美的利潤率。當然，北美的利潤率可能會推動公司的利潤率。正如您正確指出的那樣，在全年的基礎上，去年我們在北美的利潤率為 11.5%，現在我們的目標是 12%。因此，從全年來看，這看起來並不是什麼大動作。但考慮到我們在過去幾年都經歷過的波動，現在，這可能更像是一個連續的觀點，這與同比相比是有意義的。因此，在連續的基礎上，我們在第四季度有 5.8%，我們一直說這不代表我們的結構運行率。重要的是吉姆提到的，我們在第四季度的利潤中有兩個特定的元素。一個仍然是減產的尾聲，我們在上次財報電話會議上對此進行了解釋。第二，這是一次性的供應問題。在這些數字後面加上一個數字，這大約是 1 億美元的利潤影響。所以根據定義，你應該在第一季度沒有這個。所以把這個加到我們在第四季度的利潤率上，然後你可能會得到 8% 以上的利潤率。需要明確的是，這不是指導，但這是你應該期望的，也是我們對內部運行率的期望。因此，正如我們在第 16 頁上解釋的那樣，隨著原材料優勢開始發揮作用，您將在第一季度和全年看到連續的利潤率顯著增長，每個季度，我們都會看到退出運行率的連續利潤率提高，這一直是再次接近我們的長期價值創造目標。

Your next question comes from the line of Liz Suzuki from Bank of America.

你的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Liz Suzuki。

I'm just curious what your relationships with your retail customers look like today just given the disruption in the fourth quarter and has world lost shelf space to other brands? And then how do you get that back? Are there built -- is there a built-in backlog? Like were there contracts with retailers that you can now fulfill those orders? Or how should we think about the market share regain in 2023 in your assumptions?

我很好奇，鑑於第四季度的中斷以及世界上其他品牌失去了貨架空間，您今天與零售客戶的關係如何？然後你怎麼把它拿回來？是否有內置 - 是否有內置積壓？比如是否與零售商簽訂了合同，您現在可以履行這些訂單？或者我們應該如何看待您假設中的2023年市場份額重新獲得？

So Liz, let me particle I guess this question relates particularly to North America, U.S., so let me respond in particular in the U.S. In Q4, we had a market share which was pretty much identical to the Q3 market share. As a reminder, in Q3, we picked up sequential market share, so we made a little bit of progress, but we did not further expand by products in Q4, but basically how it's stable. Honestly, internally, we expected share gain. And again, we're coming back to the supply constraint, which we had in Q4. So we do expect in Q1, I mean all subsequently, margin sequential, not only margin but also market share gains, and that's what we kind of right now plan. And what we see right now is happening in January, particularly to the relationship with retail, first of all, for particular U.S., you always got differentiate between builder and traditional retail. The builder side, as you -- as we probably explained over the last years, not just last year, we made tremendous progress on expanding our market share, and we're now well above 50% in that segment. By definition, that segment is right now suppressed because we have the kind of housing issues and the housing constraints in Q3 and Q4. But at one point, that will fully benefit us. On the traditional retail side, as of today, we have not lost floor space, but it's also clear. We've got to provide our retailers with the products which we can sell. We have a lot of fantastic innovations launched and in the pipeline, be it the Mate PET program, the [2-in-1] top load of a dishwasher, which is a brand-new architecture. So we know we can sell more. We know it's floored, and we will fulfill that supply need.

所以 Liz，讓我說一下，我猜這個問題特別與北美、美國有關，所以讓我特別回答一下美國。在第四季度，我們的市場份額與第三季度的市場份額幾乎相同。提醒一下，在第三季度，我們獲得了連續的市場份額，所以我們取得了一點進展，但我們在第四季度沒有進一步擴大產品，但基本上是穩定的。老實說，在內部，我們期望份額增加。再一次，我們又回到了第四季度的供應限制。因此，我們確實希望在第一季度，我的意思是所有隨後的利潤率順序，不僅是利潤率，還有市場份額的增長，這就是我們現在的計劃。我們現在看到的是 1 月份發生的事情，特別是與零售的關係，首先，對於特定的美國，您總是會區分建築商和傳統零售。建築商方面，正如你 - 正如我們在過去幾年中可能解釋的那樣，不僅僅是去年，我們在擴大市場份額方面取得了巨大進展，我們現在在該領域的份額遠高於 50%。根據定義，該部分現在受到抑制，因為我們在第三季度和第四季度遇到了住房問題和住房限制。但在某一時刻，這將使我們完全受益。在傳統零售方面，到今天為止，我們並沒有損失建築面積，但也很明顯。我們必須向我們的零售商提供我們可以銷售的產品。我們已經推出和準備了許多奇妙的創新，無論是 Mate PET 程序，還是洗碗機的 [2 合 1] 頂部負載，這是一種全新的架構。所以我們知道我們可以賣得更多。我們知道它已經鋪平了，我們將滿足這一供應需求。

Your next question comes from the line of Mike Dahl from RBC Capital Markets.

你的下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Mike Dahl。

Marc, Jim, I appreciate all the color so far. If we look back at the last 6 months, I think it's thought everyone that visibility can be challenging. It's a quickly changing environment. When we look out at the housing landscape today, a single-family permit 40% year-on-year. Home sales are down in the mid-30s still home prices have started to soften these are all leading indicators, right? And so I guess I'm wondering, I understand your long-term views on housing. But I guess the question is why the conviction that all these headwinds will be behind you by the end of the first half of this year.

馬克，吉姆，到目前為止，我很欣賞所有的顏色。如果我們回顧過去 6 個月，我認為每個人都認為知名度可能具有挑戰性。這是一個快速變化的環境。當我們審視今天的住房景觀時，單戶住宅允許同比增長 40%。房屋銷售在 30 年代中期下降，但房價已經開始走軟，這些都是領先指標，對吧？所以我想我想知道，我理解你對住房的長期看法。但我想問題是，為什麼到今年上半年年底，所有這些逆風都會過去。

Yes. So Michael, I can probably address in particular the U.S. housing sites. As we said before, U.S. housing, we don't expect a major uplift in the first 6 months of this year. However, the long term and even kind of probably post summer, I do expect and see some recovery. First of all, you've got to differentiate two elements. The existing home sales and the new home construction. The existing home sales, just if you look at the numbers the last couple of months kind of fell from a run rate of more than 6 million to now slightly below 4 million. That's slightly below 4 million. I mean, you've got to go back several decades to see such a low level, and which is below any sustainable run rate. And it's probably the effect of ultimately mortgage rate shocks coupled with high home prices. So what you earlier said as a leading indicator, home price starting coming down, that is actually the long-term good news for existing home sales because at one point, it will improve home price affordability. Also, if you look at the mortgage rate, for those people who observed for over a longer time. Last year, we had the high spread between mortgage rates and 30-year treasury bonds. That is unusually high and most people would expect that spread to come down. So even though the Fed rates may not come down, there's reason to believe that the mortgage rates will stabilize and get back to long-term historic spreads. So we do expect that home housing affordability will improve as the year progresses, and that will ultimately trigger existing home sales. On the new home construction, many for same factors apply. But the most important thing, I mean, right now, you can talk to multiple industry sources. If you look at the last 10, 15 years, most people would agree, there's about a 3-million-unit undersupply of new homes. That is about a 2-year supply at normal run rate. So at one point, that supply will be triggered, okay? Will it all happen '23? No, and it also will not happen entirely in '24. But -- it's been -- if you go back from history, probably ever since housing market has been reported, which is probably the longest stretch of undersupply this market has experienced and will not last forever.

是的。所以邁克爾，我可能可以特別談談美國的住房地點。正如我們之前所說，美國住房，我們預計今年前 6 個月不會出現大幅上漲。然而，從長遠來看，甚至可能在夏季過後，我確實期待並看到一些復甦。首先，你必須區分兩個元素。現有房屋銷售和新房建設。現有房屋的銷售，如果你看看過去幾個月的數字，就會從超過 600 萬套的運行率下降到現在略低於 400 萬套。這略低於 400 萬。我的意思是，你必須倒退幾十年才能看到如此低的水平，而且低於任何可持續的運行率。這可能是最終抵押貸款利率衝擊加上高房價的影響。所以你之前所說的領先指標，房價開始下降，這實際上是現房銷售的長期好消息，因為在某一時刻，它會提高房價的承受能力。此外，如果您查看抵押貸款利率，對於那些觀察時間較長的人來說。去年，抵押貸款利率和 30 年期國債之間的利差很高。這是異常高的，大多數人都希望價差會下降。因此，即使美聯儲利率可能不會下降，我們也有理由相信抵押貸款利率將趨於穩定並回到長期歷史利差。因此，我們確實預計，隨著時間的推移，住房負擔能力將會提高，這最終將引發現有房屋的銷售。在新房建設上，許多相同的因素適用。但最重要的是，我的意思是，現在，你可以與多個行業消息來源交談。如果你回顧過去 10 年、15 年，大多數人都會同意，大約有 300 萬套新房供不應求。這大約是正常運行速度下 2 年的供應量。所以在某一時刻，供應將被觸發，好嗎？這一切都會發生在 23 年嗎？不，它也不會完全發生在 24 年。但是 - 它已經 - 如果你回顧歷史，可能自從報告房地產市場以來，這可能是該市場經歷的最長的供應不足時期並且不會永遠持續下去。

Michael, I'd say the other thing to add in there is you have to remember that our industry is a large replacement industry, and about 55% of our business is replacement. And if you go back to the industry in 2011 was declining in 2012, it was pretty much flat. But in 2013, you started to see some significant growth as it rebounded. And so when you look back 10 years, we're really now entering that period where you could have a very favorable replacement trends that are underlying. Additionally, if you look at what consumers are doing today, as many consumers may not be moving do they want to stay in their homes with their existing low mortgage rates, it does lead to more remodels. And many other times, the kitchen is one of the things they remodel. So there are other trends out there that we do see that can be and will be positive for us.

邁克爾，我要說的另一件事是你必須記住我們的行業是一個大型替代行業，我們大約 55% 的業務是替代品。如果你回顧一下 2011 年的行業在 2012 年下降，它幾乎持平。但在 2013 年，隨著它的反彈，你開始看到一些顯著的增長。因此，當你回顧 10 年時，我們現在真的進入了那個時期，你可能會有一個非常有利的潛在替代趨勢。此外，如果你看看今天消費者的行為，許多消費者可能不會搬家，因為他們想留在現有的低抵押貸款利率的房屋中，這確實會導致更多的改造。很多時候，廚房是他們改造的地方之一。因此，我們確實看到了其他趨勢，它們可以而且將會對我們產生積極影響。

Got it. Okay. And again, I appreciate that. I think some of those things are probably debates rather than absolutes, and timing still seems like a question from our standpoint. So the follow-up I think from my side would be it seems like by the second half of the year, you're assuming that industry volumes get closer to things like for your own volume assumptions, there's an assumption for a share gain, so potentially a little volume growth that will help drive some of the year-on-year capability in margin as the year progresses. So if the demand side doesn't come through as expected in the second half, how should we think about margin impacts or decrementals, given there's obviously a lot of moving pieces around the cost side as well. So if we're trying to isolate kind of the volume side and how that plays into it, how should we be thinking about that?

知道了。好的。再一次，我很感激。我認為其中一些事情可能是爭論而不是絕對的，從我們的角度來看，時機似乎仍然是一個問題。所以我認為從我這邊的後續行動似乎是到今年下半年，你假設行業銷量接近你自己的銷量假設，有一個份額收益的假設，所以隨著時間的推移，可能會有少量的銷量增長，這將有助於推動利潤率的一些同比增長。因此，如果下半年需求方面沒有達到預期，我們應該如何考慮利潤率影響或遞減，因為成本方面顯然也有很多變動因素。因此，如果我們試圖隔離音量方面的種類以及它如何發揮作用，我們應該如何考慮呢？

So Michael, maybe it's just -- and again, we only talk about North America right now. We -- in -- on this Page 19 in our presentation, we guide -- or our assumption for our market is minus 6% to minus 4% on North America on a full year base. Keep in mind that comes on top of a 6.5% down in '22. So to Jim's earlier point, at one point, you just reach a floor of what is replacement market. Replacement markets are now already 55%. So the pieces which can move, i.e., the discretionary purchase. At one point, you're at such a low level that a further downside risk is realistically fairly small. I would say from today's perspective, if at all, I would more see upside risk, I wouldn't probably call it risk, but right now is there's a lot of arguments to be made by it will start recovering. To your earlier point about, yes, we can all argue about the timing of a slow consumer recovery. It doesn't change the fact that the mid- and long-term fundamentals are strong ones. And just people want to bet against the U.S. housing market. So be it, we do believe that the long-term U.S. housing market is a very strong one and will fully recover.

所以邁克爾，也許它只是 - 再一次，我們現在只談論北美。我們 - 在 - 在我們的演示文稿的第 19 頁上，我們指導 - 或者我們對北美市場的全年假設為負 6% 至負 4%。請記住，這是在 22 年下降 6.5% 之後出現的。因此，對於 Jim 之前的觀點，在某一時刻，您只是到達了更換市場的底部。替代市場現在已經達到 55%。所以可以移動的部分，即酌情購買。有一次，你處於如此低的水平，以至於進一步下行的風險實際上相當小。我想說，從今天的角度來看，如果有的話，我會更多地看到上行風險，我可能不會稱之為風險，但現在有很多論據表明它會開始復蘇。關於你之前的觀點，是的，我們都可以爭論消費者復蘇緩慢的時機。這不會改變中長期基本面強勁的事實。只是人們想做空美國房地產市場。就這樣吧，我們確實相信美國的長期房地產市場非常強勁，並將完全復甦。

Our next question comes from the line of Susan Maklari from Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Susan Maklari。

My first question is, given your background and experience operationally, with the business in various regions that have faced different challenges over time. How do you think about the North American operations today, the opportunities there and the opportunity to hit some of those initiatives that you outlined in your comments?

我的第一個問題是，鑑於您的背景和運營經驗，不同地區的業務隨著時間的推移面臨著不同的挑戰。您如何看待今天的北美業務、那裡的機會以及實現您在評論中概述的一些舉措的機會？

Susan, I think that's obviously a very macro question with a pretty big-time horizon. But I would actually come back all way to our decisions and what we plan with our portfolio transformation I am a firm believer in the long-term fundamentals of North and South America, coupled with an exceptionally strong market position, which we have in both parts of the world. So will the North America market go for some cycles, which are largely driven because we're still living a post cohort world in the interest rate shock, yes, it doesn't change my fundamental perspective about the long-term health of this market. The long-term health of our position in the market and our ability to deliver very strong margins in the market. And we will deliver it and we will demonstrate it. But again, it's -- I've been observing I was responsible for North America ever since 2008 or 2009. So I've seen the ups and downs of the housing market. I think I have pretty good access to one or two of the numbers of the housing market. You can't ignore the market that has been undersupplied for 15 years, but at one point, it will recover. Because one thing interest rates don't impact our demographics, okay? And the demographics in North America and household formation is solid and there's quite a bit of pent-up demand. So I know I'm repeating myself and met optimism, but -- so that explains why I'm fundamentally bullish on the mid- and long-term prospects of North America.

蘇珊，我認為這顯然是一個非常宏觀的問題，具有相當大的時間範圍。但實際上我會一直回到我們的決定以及我們對投資組合轉型的計劃 我堅信北美和南美的長期基本面，以及我們在這兩個地區都擁有的異常強大的市場地位世界的。北美市場也會經歷一些週期，這主要是因為我們仍然生活在利率衝擊中的後世代世界，是的，這不會改變我對這個市場長期健康的基本看法.我們在市場中的地位的長期健康以及我們在市場上提供非常可觀的利潤的能力。我們將交付它並展示它。但同樣，自 2008 年或 2009 年以來，我一直在觀察我負責北美的情況。所以我看到了房地產市場的起起落落。我認為我可以很好地了解房地產市場的一兩個數字。你不能忽視這個供應不足 15 年的市場，但總有一天，它會復蘇。因為一件事利率不會影響我們的人口統計數據，好嗎？北美的人口結構和家庭形成情況穩定，而且有相當多的被壓抑的需求。所以我知道我在重複自己並遇到樂觀情緒，但是 - 這解釋了為什麼我從根本上看好北美的中長期前景。

Yes. Okay. I appreciate that. And then one of the things that we've seen in some of the other product categories that are promotionally driven or can be exposed to more promotions is that the demand dynamics over the last 2 years, they're just not necessarily having the same effect on the consumer as they did pre-COVID. Would you say that you're seeing something similar in your industry? And is that impacting how you think of the level and the range of promotions and incentives we could see this year relative to the pre-COVID norms?

是的。好的。我很感激。然後我們在其他一些受促銷驅動或可以接觸更多促銷的產品類別中看到的一件事是，過去 2 年的需求動態，它們不一定具有相同的效果像他們在 COVID 之前所做的那樣對消費者。你會說你在你的行業中看到了類似的東西嗎？這是否會影響您對我們今年可能看到的相對於 COVID 前規範的促銷和激勵措施的水平和範圍的看法？

I think, Susan, you're raising a very good question or observation. And I'd just comment on the hindsight because as always, we don't comment too much on I mean, promotion plans or whatever going forward. But on hindsight, so kind of in particular as you look at '22, I think the traditional way how we would have looked at responsiveness to promotion or price elasticity has somewhat changed through COVID and also in this post-COVID world and in particular, in an environment where replacement market has such a big share. Because of the fact that discretionary part is much smaller, by definition, what you can tap into with promotions is smaller. Replacement market in its own historically is not very by definition, not very responsive to promotion because people replace the product and it needs to be replaced. So that probably explains what you described where traditional responsiveness in the market to promotions may be less than it was in a pre-COVID environment. And again, in our case, that's largely driven by a much higher share of replacement market.

我認為，蘇珊，你提出了一個很好的問題或觀察。我只是事後評論，因為一如既往，我們不會對我的意思、促銷計劃或任何未來的事情發表過多評論。但事後看來，特別是當你看 22 年時，我認為我們看待促銷或價格彈性的反應的傳統方式已經通過 COVID 以及在這個後 COVID 世界中發生了一些變化，特別是，在更換市場佔有如此大份額的環境中。由於可自由支配的部分要小得多，因此根據定義，您可以通過促銷獲得的收益更小。從歷史上看，更換市場本身並不是很明確，對促銷也不是很敏感，因為人們更換了產品，它需要更換。因此，這可能解釋了您所描述的市場對促銷的傳統響應可能低於 COVID 之前的環境。同樣，在我們的案例中，這在很大程度上是由更高的替代市場份額推動的。

Your next question comes from the line of Eric Bosshard from Cleveland Research.

你的下一個問題來自 Cleveland Research 的 Eric Bosshard。

Two things. First of all, on the price mix, you talked about the second half of '22, the promotions were as expected. There was a step down pretty meaningfully in price mix from what you targeted in the second half. And so what I'm curious about, I see you've guided it down 200-some basis points in '23. I'm curious, within that, we're seeing retailers who accepted cost base price increases on the way up now asking for a return of that as costs come down. I know you're also assuming a favorable mix, but it seems like there's some trade down going on with a bit more cautious consumer. And so the question is, with that context as you look at that negative 200 or so basis point price mix in '23, what are the moving pieces? And is there more upside or more downside to that with less some perspective on that?

兩件事情。首先，關於價格組合，您談到了 22 年下半年，促銷活動符合預期。與您下半年的目標相比，價格組合大幅下降。所以我很好奇的是，我看到你在 23 年將它引導了 200 多個基點。我很好奇，在這種情況下，我們看到零售商在成本上漲的過程中接受成本基礎價格上漲，現在要求隨著成本下降而退貨。我知道你也在假設一個有利的組合，但似乎有一些交易正在發生，消費者更加謹慎。所以問題是，在這種情況下，當您查看 23 年負 200 左右基點的價格組合時，移動的部分是什麼？如果對它的看法較少，那麼它有更多的好處還是更多的壞處？

So Eric, first of all, as we look in '23, you've got to keep in mind that you're lapping now against 3 rounds of price increases. So by definition, at one point, the positive price mix will, by definition, just go down to zero because you're comparing against prior year significant increases. What we have factored in is kind of promotional levels, which are similar to the levels which we see in the back of '22, so that's fully incorporated. At the same time, we do strongly believe we in particular, have mixed opportunities. Also if you look at our Q4 and you guys know from your operational perspective, when our business is the lack of supply, which we had in Q4 didn't help us on the mix side. Because products which we particularly couldn't deliver where we nonpromoted items and the high value mix items. So we do expect, in particular, as you come from Q4 into Q1, Q2, sequential improvement of mix, and that's our opportunity to protect pricing also as we look in '22 -- '23 while, of course, taking into account that there will be a promotional environment similar to the back half of '22. So again, there are several factors playing into road. This is a highly competitive environment, and I think we took the reasonable assumption in this.

所以埃里克，首先，正如我們在 23 年看到的那樣，你必須記住，你現在正在應對 3 輪價格上漲。因此，根據定義，在某一時刻，根據定義，正價格組合將下降至零，因為您正在與前一年的顯著增長進行比較。我們考慮的是一種促銷級別，類似於我們在 22 世紀末看到的級別，因此已完全納入。與此同時，我們堅信我們尤其擁有混合機會。另外，如果你看看我們的第四季度，你們從運營的角度知道，當我們的業務供應不足時，我們在第四季度的供應並沒有幫助我們在混合方面。因為我們特別無法交付非促銷商品和高價值混合商品的產品。因此，我們確實期望，特別是當您從第四季度進入第一季度、第二季度時，組合的連續改進，這也是我們保護定價的機會，正如我們在 22 年 - 23 年看到的那樣，當然，考慮到將會有類似於 22 年後半的促銷環境。同樣，有幾個因素影響了道路。這是一個競爭激烈的環境，我認為我們對此做出了合理的假設。

And then a second question for Jim. On Slide 7, pretty compelling from a value creation, the divestitures and the portfolio changes that add up to, I think, about $1 billion, which is the present value of future cash flows. I'm curious what the math on that slide would be if you look at the current level of performance of the business is not the future anticipated improvement. What does that look like that we took a snapshot of it today?

然後是 Jim 的第二個問題。在幻燈片 7 上，價值創造、資產剝離和投資組合變化非常引人注目，我認為總計約 10 億美元，這是未來現金流的現值。我很好奇如果您查看當前的業務績效水平不是未來預期的改進，那張幻燈片上的數學會是什麼。我們今天給它拍的快照是什麼樣子的？

Yes. I mean, if you took a snapshot of it today, and maybe if I kind of roll back and say, as we went through this process, we looked at multiple alternatives and cases. And we looked at from if we keep the business and the improvements we would make and what investments that would require we had different types of potential buyers, and then we looked at the strategic partnership. And what I would say is this had the highest return of any of those options that we had out there. And as I said, the reason for that, even on an internal type of option, is that would have required a significant amount of upfront cash investment from us. And while it would have allowed us to improve the margins that upfront cash investment would still give it a lower net present value. Now the other thing is by keeping a 25% stake in this business, it allows us to participate in that upside, which we do believe can be significantly more than we could have generated on our own. And so that's really where when you look at this transaction, the value creation comes from. And Marc talked about this earlier in some of his remarks, is the opportunity that we have to participate and then potentially at some point in time, realize or monetize that part of the business. But we do believe in the long-term health of that business in this partnership.

是的。我的意思是，如果你今天拍了一張快照，也許我可以回過頭來說，在我們完成這個過程的過程中，我們研究了多個備選方案和案例。我們研究瞭如果我們保留業務和我們將做出的改進以及需要什麼樣的投資我們有不同類型的潛在買家，然後我們研究了戰略合作夥伴關係。我要說的是，這是我們所有選擇中回報最高的。正如我所說，這樣做的原因，即使是內部類型的期權，也需要我們進行大量的前期現金投資。雖然它可以讓我們提高利潤率，但前期現金投資仍然會降低淨現值。現在，另一件事是通過持有該業務 25% 的股份，它使我們能夠參與其中，我們相信這可能比我們自己產生的收益要多得多。因此，當您查看此交易時，這確實是價值創造的來源。馬克早些時候在他的一些言論中談到了這一點，這是我們必須參與的機會，然後可能在某個時間點，實現或貨幣化這部分業務。但我們確實相信這種夥伴關係中該業務的長期健康發展。

So given -- I think this was the last question, which we covered today. So let me just close up and wrap up here. First of all, thanks for joining us here today. Obviously, there is a lot of moving parts, but I still want to remind of two critical items. One is what you just alluded to is the transaction in Europe. We -- April last year, we said we will do a strategic review in Europe. I think as you heard from Jim, we looked at all the options. We strongly believe this is the most value-creating option of all, which we looked at and our creative strongest business going forward. So we feel very good that we set we will be doing. And now we kind of signed a significant step, obviously, that still needs to be closed, which we expect some time around Q3. On the underlying operating business outside Europe, you also heard before that in the particular second half of '22, yes, we had an unfavorable environment because it's very historically somewhat unusual to have demand down and cost up. Typically, these kind of situations don't last very long. And as you heard from us, we don't expect that to last for the entire '23. There still will be some carryover into Q1, but when we do expect improvement. But beyond hoping or betting on an extra environment, you saw we're taking strong actions. The $800 million to $900 million cost target is the one which you need to hold us accountable for because that is ultimately the [fuel] of a driver behind our guidance, which we've given for '23. So with that, looking forward to talk to you at the next earnings call or in respective conferences in between. So thanks again for joining us.

所以鑑於 - 我認為這是我們今天討論的最後一個問題。所以讓我在這裡結束並結束。首先，感謝您今天加入我們。顯然，有很多活動部件，但我還是要提醒兩個關鍵項目。一是你剛才提到的歐洲的交易。我們 - 去年四月，我們說我們將在歐洲進行戰略審查。我想正如你從吉姆那裡聽到的那樣，我們研究了所有的選擇。我們堅信這是所有選項中最能創造價值的選項，我們對此進行了審視，並認為這是我們未來最具創造力的業務。所以我們感覺很好，我們設定了我們將要做的事情。現在我們簽署了一個重要的步驟，顯然，它仍然需要關閉，我們預計在第三季度左右的某個時間。關於歐洲以外的基礎運營業務，您之前也聽說過，在 22 世紀下半年，是的，我們的環境不利，因為從歷史上看，需求下降和成本上昇在某種程度上是不尋常的。通常，這種情況不會持續很長時間。正如您從我們那裡聽到的那樣，我們預計這種情況不會持續整個 23 年。第一季度仍然會有一些結轉，但我們確實預計會有所改善。但除了希望或押注額外的環境之外，您還看到我們正在採取強有力的行動。 8 億至 9 億美元的成本目標是您需要讓我們負責的目標，因為這最終是我們為 23 年給出的指導背後的驅動力的[燃料]。因此，期待在下一次財報電話會議或兩者之間的相應會議上與您交談。再次感謝您加入我們。

Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes our fourth quarter 2022 Whirlpool Corporation Earnings Conference Call. You may now disconnect.

女士們，先生們，惠而浦公司 2022 年第四季度收益電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連接。