惠而浦 (WHR) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to Whirlpool Corporation's Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Release Call. Today's call is being recorded.

早上好，歡迎參加惠而浦公司 2022 年第三季度收益發布電話會議。今天的電話正在錄音。

For opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to Senior Director of Investor Relations, Korey Thomas.

對於開場白和介紹，我想將電話轉給投資者關係高級總監 Korey Thomas。

Thank you, and welcome to our Third Quarter Conference Call. Joining me today are Marc Bitzer, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Jim Peters, our Chief Financial Officer; and Joe Liotine, our Chief Operating Officer. Our remarks today track with a presentation available on the Investors section of our website at whirlpoolcorp.com.

謝謝，歡迎參加我們的第三季度電話會議。今天加入我的是我們的董事長兼首席執行官 Marc Bitzer；我們的首席財務官 Jim Peters；和我們的首席運營官 Joe Liotine。我們今天的評論與我們網站 whirlpoolcorp.com 的投資者部分的演示文稿相一致。

Before we begin, I want to remind you that as we conduct this call, we'll be making forward-looking statements to assist you in better understanding Whirlpool Corporation's future expectations. Our actual results could differ materially from these statements due to many factors discussed in our latest 10-K, 10-Q and other periodic reports.

在開始之前，我想提醒您，在我們進行本次電話會議時，我們將做出前瞻性陳述，以幫助您更好地了解惠而浦公司的未來預期。由於我們最新的 10-K、10-Q 和其他定期報告中討論的許多因素，我們的實際結果可能與這些陳述存在重大差異。

We also want to remind you that today's presentation includes non-GAAP measures. We believe these measures are important indicators of our operations as they exclude items that may not be indicative of results from our ongoing business operations. We also think the adjusted measures will provide you with a better baseline for analyzing trends in our ongoing business operations. Listeners are directed to the supplemental information package posted on the Investor Relations section of our website for the reconciliation of non-GAAP items to the most directly comparable GAAP measures.

我們還想提醒您，今天的演示文稿包括非公認會計原則措施。我們認為這些措施是我們運營的重要指標，因為它們排除了可能不代表我們正在進行的業務運營結果的項目。我們還認為，調整後的措施將為您分析我們正在進行的業務運營趨勢提供更好的基準。聽眾將被引導至我們網站投資者關係部分發布的補充信息包，以將非 GAAP 項目與最直接可比的 GAAP 措施進行對賬。

We have also provided additional information related to inventory, demand and fixed costs that will not be regularly provided or updated in future quarterly earnings materials.

我們還提供了與庫存、需求和固定成本相關的額外信息，這些信息不會在未來的季度收益材料中定期提供或更新。

(Operator Instructions) And with that, I'll turn the call over to Marc.

（操作員說明）然後，我將把電話轉給 Marc。

Thanks, Korey, and welcome, everyone, to our Third Quarter Earnings call. As you can see from our agenda on Slide 4, we plan to discuss today more than just our third quarter results. We are operating in unprecedented times, and we do feel it is necessary and helpful for investors to broaden the time horizon of today's a called beyond Q3, and take a step back to reinforce our long-term strategy as well as our perspective on favorable mix and long-term consumer demand trends.

謝謝 Korey，歡迎大家參加我們的第三季度收益電話會議。正如您從幻燈片 4 的議程中看到的那樣，我們今天計劃討論的不僅僅是我們的第三季度業績。我們在前所未有的時代運營，我們確實認為有必要和有助於投資者拓寬今天第三季度之後的時間範圍，並退後一步加強我們的長期戰略以及我們對有利組合的看法和長期的消費需求趨勢。

In the first agenda item, we will discuss the Q3 results in detail. You will see that short-term consumer sentiment and consumer demand are clearly reflective of a recessionary environment; while at the same time, input costs, which you would expect to come down in a recessionary environment, are still elevated. Needless to say that this combination impacted our Q3 negatively.

在第一個議程項目中，我們將詳細討論第三季度的結果。您會看到短期消費者情緒和消費者需求明顯反映了經濟衰退的環境；與此同時，在經濟衰退的環境下，您預計會下降的投入成本仍然很高。不用說，這種組合對我們的第三季度產生了負面影響。

In the second agenda item, we will show you that Whirlpool has a strong track record of successfully managing through cycles. We're laser-focused on ensuring we have the strongest business irrespective of rapid changes in the macro environment. We have, and we will continue to take action early and decisively, and we have done so again this quarter.

在第二個議程項目中，我們將向您展示惠而浦在成功管理週期方面有著良好的記錄。無論宏觀環境如何迅速變化，我們都專注於確保我們擁有最強大的業務。我們已經，而且我們將繼續及早果斷地採取行動，本季度我們再次這樣做了。

Beyond the current recessionary challenges, we strongly believe in the favorable mid- and long-term demand tailwinds in particular in North America. And our business is very well positioned to win in this attractive post-recession setup. We will cover this in the third agenda item.

除了當前的衰退挑戰之外，我們堅信有利的中長期需求順風，尤其是在北美。我們的業務非常有能力在這種有吸引力的經濟衰退後環境中獲勝。我們將在第三個議程項目中討論這個問題。

And finally, in the fourth agenda item, I will provide an update on our portfolio transformation, which is well underway as we continue to move towards a high-growth, high-margin business.

最後，在第四個議程項目中，我將介紹我們的投資組合轉型的最新情況，隨著我們繼續朝著高增長、高利潤的業務邁進，這一轉型正在順利進行。

But first, I'll turn it over to Joe to review our third quarter results in more detail.

但首先，我將把它交給喬更詳細地審查我們的第三季度業績。

Thanks, Marc. Turning to Slide 5. Our performance this quarter was impacted by significant industry declines and elevated cost inflation that is now leveling off. In key countries across the globe, we saw double-digit demand declines. In response, we aggressively reduced our inventories by $300 million compared to the second quarter with a 35% reduction in global production. Needless to say that this volume deleveraging impacted our Q3 results negatively. We do consider our inventories to now be very well balanced.

謝謝，馬克。轉到幻燈片 5。我們本季度的業績受到行業大幅下滑和成本通脹上升的影響，而成本通脹目前正在趨於平穩。在全球主要國家，我們看到了兩位數的需求下降。作為回應，我們與第二季度相比大幅減少了 3 億美元的庫存，全球產量減少了 35%。不用說，這種去槓桿化對我們的第三季度業績產生了負面影響。我們確實認為我們的庫存現在非常平衡。

We delivered ongoing EPS of $4.49 and ongoing EBIT margin of 5.5%, with approximately 10% EBIT margins in North America. While these results are below our expectations, we remain confident that we have the right strategy and actions in place and are well positioned to deliver strong performance and shareholder returns.

我們實現了 4.49 美元的持續每股收益和 5.5% 的持續息稅前利潤率，北美的息稅前利潤率約為 10%。雖然這些結果低於我們的預期，但我們仍然相信我們制定了正確的戰略和行動，並有能力提供強勁的業績和股東回報。

Now turning to Slide 6. I will give more context on the magnitude of the industry decline by country. Across our key marketplaces, we faced market contractions of 10% to 25% during the quarter and expect similar declines in most countries as we move through the fourth quarter. In the U.S. and throughout the world, consumer sentiment has been impacted by inflation and increasing interest rates. And the ongoing war in Ukraine and weakening currencies have further weighed on demand.

現在轉到幻燈片 6。我將按國家/地區提供有關行業衰退幅度的更多背景信息。在我們的主要市場中，我們在本季度面臨 10% 至 25% 的市場收縮，預計隨著我們進入第四季度，大多數國家/地區的市場也會出現類似的下滑。在美國和世界各地，消費者信心受到通貨膨脹和利率上升的影響。烏克蘭持續的戰爭和貨幣疲軟進一步打壓了需求。

Turning to Slide 7. You will see the impact of proactive steps taken to reduce inventories. We lowered our inventory by $300 million from Q2 levels despite the significantly reduced shipment volumes within the quarter.

轉到幻燈片 7。您將看到為減少庫存而採取的主動措施的影響。儘管本季度的出貨量顯著減少，但我們將庫存從第二季度的水平降低了 3 億美元。

In total, we reduced production volumes 35% in the quarter. To put this in context, this is pretty much the same level of production as Q2 2020 when we were faced with global COVID shutdowns. Even though painful within the quarter, we are now much better positioned to manage near-term demand fluctuations.

總的來說，我們在本季度將產量減少了 35%。將這一點放在上下文中，這與我們面臨全球 COVID 關閉時的 2020 年第二季度的生產水平幾乎相同。儘管本季度很痛苦，但我們現在能夠更好地管理近期的需求波動。

Turning to Slide 8. In addition to managing our inventories in response to industry decline, we are also experiencing elevated and persistent levels of inflation. Over the last 2 years, we've absorbed $2.7 billion of inflation across our entire value chain, thus increasing our cost of goods sold by well over 10%. We experienced increases in raw materials; freight and logistics costs; and more recently, energy costs. Aligning inventories with softer market demand was also a factor contributing to our performance.

轉到幻燈片 8。除了管理我們的庫存以應對行業衰退之外，我們還經歷了持續升高的通貨膨脹水平。在過去 2 年中，我們在整個價值鏈中吸收了 27 億美元的通貨膨脹，從而使我們的商品銷售成本增加了 10% 以上。我們經歷了原材料的增加；運費和物流成本；最近，能源成本。使庫存與疲軟的市場需求保持一致也是促成我們業績的一個因素。

As expected, inflation peaked in the quarter and will remain elevated. We do expect cost inflation to persist throughout the first half of 2023 and costs moderating in the second half of 2023. Despite historically high inflation and market headwinds across the globe, Whirlpool remains well positioned to capitalize when the macroeconomic environment normalizes.

正如預期的那樣，通脹在本季度達到頂峰，並將繼續保持高位。我們確實預計成本通脹將在 2023 年上半年持續存在，並在 2023 年下半年放緩。儘管全球通脹處於歷史高位且市場逆風，但惠而浦仍處於有利地位，可以在宏觀經濟環境正常化時獲利。

Turning to Slide 9. We show the drivers of our third quarter EBIT margin. We continue to deliver strong price/mix of 550 basis points with previously announced cost-based price increases and slightly increased promotional activities that will continue into the fourth quarter. We responded to accelerated industry declines, and we are prepared for the upcoming holiday season.

轉到幻燈片 9。我們展示了第三季度息稅前利潤率的驅動因素。我們繼續提供 550 個基點的強勁價格/組合，之前宣布的基於成本的價格上漲和將持續到第四季度的促銷活動略有增加。我們應對行業加速下滑，並為即將到來的假期做好準備。

While we successfully reduced inventory, the associated volume deleveraging, alongside continued elevated logistics and energy costs, drove a 325 basis point impact in net cost. Raw material inflation was as expected and negatively impacted margins by 750 basis points. And we began to see cost actions gaining traction with reduced marketing and technology spending, which was more than offset by the impact of foreign currency as the U.S. dollar strengthened during the quarter. Overall, we delivered an ongoing EBIT margin of 5.5%.

雖然我們成功地減少了庫存，但相關的去槓桿化以及物流和能源成本的持續上升，推動了淨成本 325 個基點的影響。原材料通脹符合預期，對利潤率造成了 750 個基點的負面影響。我們開始看到成本行動隨著營銷和技術支出的減少而受到關注，這被本季度美元走強所帶來的外匯影響所抵消。總體而言，我們實現了 5.5% 的持續息稅前利潤率。

Turning to Slide 10. I'll review results for our North American region. As we continue to optimize our supply network, improving availability, we saw slight sequential share gains in the quarter. However, our revenues were down 8%, driven by weaker demand. We did aggressively reduce production levels to rebalance our inventory levels. This temporary volume deleveraging and related operating inefficiencies, in addition to continued inflationary pressures, negatively impacted our margins for the quarter. Even with these challenges, the region delivered approximately 10% margins.

轉到幻燈片 10。我將回顧我們北美地區的結果。隨著我們繼續優化我們的供應網絡，提高可用性，我們在本季度看到了輕微的連續份額增長。然而，由於需求疲軟，我們的收入下降了 8%。我們確實積極降低生產水平以重新平衡我們的庫存水平。除了持續的通脹壓力外，這種暫時的去槓桿化和相關的運營效率低下，對我們本季度的利潤率產生了負面影響。即使面臨這些挑戰，該地區仍實現了約 10% 的利潤率。

Looking forward, we are excited about the unique opportunity to add in InSinkErator to our portfolio of leading brands and expect the transaction to close on October 31. And this acquisition is a clear accelerator of our ongoing portfolio transformation and delivering on our commitment of investing in high-growth, high-margin businesses. We continue to remain confident in the strength of our North American business.

展望未來，我們很高興有機會將愛適易加入我們的領先品牌組合，並預計交易將於 10 月 31 日完成。此次收購明顯加速了我們正在進行的投資組合轉型，並兌現了我們投資於高增長、高利潤的業務。我們繼續對我們北美業務的實力充滿信心。

Turning to Slide 11. I'll review results for our Europe, Middle East and Africa region. As part of our portfolio transformation, we completed the sale of our Whirlpool Russia business on August 31. Revenue was negatively impacted by 11 points of foreign currency. Excluding Russia and the impact of foreign currency, revenue was down approximately 8%.

轉到幻燈片 11。我將回顧我們歐洲、中東和非洲地區的結果。作為我們投資組合轉型的一部分，我們於 8 月 31 日完成了惠而浦俄羅斯業務的出售。收入受到 11 個外匯點的負面影響。剔除俄羅斯和外彙的影響，收入下降了約 8%。

The region's cost-based pricing actions were more than offset by lower volumes and cost inflation as consumer sentiment continues to be impacted by the war in Ukraine and inflation, resulting in a negative EBIT margin of 3.1%. Marc will provide an update on the strategic review of our EMEA business later in the call.

由於消費者情緒繼續受到烏克蘭戰爭和通貨膨脹的影響，該地區基於成本的定價行動被較低的銷量和成本通脹所抵消，導致息稅前利潤率為負 3.1%。 Marc 將在電話會議稍後提供有關我們 EMEA 業務戰略審查的最新信息。

Turning to Slide 12, I'll review results for our Latin America region. The region saw significant demand declines and continued inflation more than offsetting our cost-based pricing and cost actions. Despite these negative impacts, the region delivered more than 5% EBIT.

轉到幻燈片 12，我將回顧我們拉丁美洲地區的結果。該地區的需求顯著下降和持續的通貨膨脹抵消了我們基於成本的定價和成本行動。儘管存在這些負面影響，該地區的息稅前利潤仍超過 5%。

Turning to Slide 13, I'll review results for our Asia region. Excluding the impact of currency, revenue declined 1%, and cost-based pricing actions were more than offset by inflation, ultimately leading to an EBIT margin of slightly below 5%.

轉到幻燈片 13，我將回顧我們亞洲地區的結果。排除貨幣影響，收入下降 1%，基於成本的定價行動被通貨膨脹所抵消，最終導致息稅前利潤率略低於 5%。

Now I'll turn it over to Jim to discuss our full year 2022 guidance.

現在我將把它交給吉姆討論我們的 2022 年全年指導。

Thanks, Joe. Now turning to Slide 14, I'll review our updated guidance for 2022. We expect to deliver fourth quarter EBIT similar to Q3. As a result, we have revised our full year ongoing EPS guidance to approximately $19. We have reduced industry expectations for all regions except Asia, reflecting the continuation of trends we experienced during the quarter.

謝謝，喬。現在轉到幻燈片 14，我將回顧我們對 2022 年的更新指導。我們預計第四季度的息稅前利潤將與第三季度相似。因此，我們將全年持續每股收益指引修訂為約 19 美元。我們降低了對除亞洲以外的所有地區的行業預期，反映了我們在本季度經歷的趨勢的延續。

We now expect a revenue contraction of approximately 9% and ongoing EBIT margin of approximately 7.25% for the year, with North America margins of 12% plus for the full year. And we expect to generate free cash flow of approximately $950 million or around 4.75% of net sales.

我們現在預計今年收入將收縮約 9%，息稅前利潤率持續約為 7.25%，而北美全年利潤率將增加 12% 以上。我們預計將產生約 9.5 億美元的自由現金流，約占淨銷售額的 4.75%。

While we have revised our guidance to reflect the current macro environment and expect many of these trends to continue through mid-2023, we remain committed to our long-term goals to drive profitable growth of 5% to 6%, ongoing EBIT margin expansion of 11% to 12% and cash conversion of 7% to 8% free cash flow.

雖然我們已經修訂了我們的指導以反映當前的宏觀環境，並預計其中許多趨勢將持續到 2023 年年中，但我們仍然致力於實現我們的長期目標，即推動盈利增長 5% 至 6%，息稅前利潤率持續增長11% 到 12% 和 7% 到 8% 的自由現金流的現金轉換。

Turning to Slide 15, we will discuss the drivers of our 2022 free cash flow. We now expect to generate free cash flow of approximately $950 million compared to our previous guidance of $1.25 billion. With cash earnings of approximately $1.6 billion, we expect to continue to invest in our products and fund organic growth by unlocking capacity constraints and launching innovative products. These investments are in line with our target for capital expenditures of approximately 3% of net sales.

轉到幻燈片 15，我們將討論 2022 年自由現金流的驅動因素。我們現在預計將產生約 9.5 億美元的自由現金流，而我們之前的指導為 12.5 億美元。憑藉約 16 億美元的現金收益，我們預計將繼續投資於我們的產品並通過解除產能限制和推出創新產品來為有機增長提供資金。這些投資符合我們將資本支出占淨銷售額約 3% 的目標。

Additionally, we lowered our working capital expectations, reflecting the previously discussed inventory reduction actions. Lastly, our expectation remains unchanged as we anticipate minimal cash outlays related to restructuring as these actions have been largely completed.

此外，我們降低了我們的營運資金預期，反映了之前討論的庫存減少行動。最後，我們的預期保持不變，因為我們預計與重組相關的現金支出很少，因為這些行動已基本完成。

Now I'll turn it over to Marc to provide our perspective beyond 2022.

現在，我將把它交給 Marc，以提供我們對 2022 年以後的看法。

Thanks, Jim. I want to spend a bit of time to demonstrate our strong track record of successfully operating through various economic cycles. Turning to Slide 17. You see that, when faced with inflation across the board, from materials to logistics and energy, we have responded early and decisively with cost-based pricing actions.

謝謝，吉姆。我想花一點時間來展示我們在各種經濟周期中成功運營的良好記錄。轉到幻燈片 17。您會看到，當面臨從材料到物流和能源的全面通脹時，我們已及早果斷地採取了基於成本的定價行動。

Our strong execution of 7 cost-based pricing actions and smart value-creating promotional activity has driven positive price/mix in nearly every quarter since 2019. With broad-based cost-based pricing actions across the globe in nearly every product category and channel, we have delivered a cumulative price/mix impact of 13%.

自 2019 年以來，我們強有力地執行了 7 項基於成本的定價行動和智能的價值創造促銷活動，幾乎在每個季度都推動了積極的價格/組合。通過在全球幾乎每個產品類別和渠道中進行廣泛的基於成本的定價行動，我們已經實現了 13% 的累積價格/組合影響。

Turning to Slide 18, I will discuss our significantly reduced fixed cost base. This chart shows the total of our SG&A, factory and logistic costs over the past 6 years. Despite the inflation which we also experienced in parts of our fixed costs, such as logistics or salaries, we've been able to reduce the fixed cost by approximately $700 million or around 3% net reduction every year.

轉到幻燈片 18，我將討論我們顯著降低的固定成本基礎。這張圖表顯示了過去 6 年我們的 SG&A、工廠和物流成本的總和。儘管我們的部分固定成本（例如物流或工資）也經歷了通貨膨脹，但我們已經能夠將固定成本減少約 7 億美元，即每年淨減少約 3%。

In response to the current macroeconomic challenges, we have initiated another $500 million cost takeout program that will further reduce our fixed and variable costs in 2023. As a result of these actions, we have drastically reduced our breakeven point, which will benefit us once industry volumes recover from current temporary weakness. This is an important step in structurally improving our long-term margins.

為應對當前的宏觀經濟挑戰，我們啟動了另一個 5 億美元的成本削減計劃，這將在 2023 年進一步降低我們的固定和可變成本。由於這些行動，我們大幅降低了盈虧平衡點，這將使我們一旦行業受益成交量從目前的暫時疲軟中恢復。這是從結構上提高我們的長期利潤率的重要一步。

As mentioned before, Whirlpool has a history of proactively responding to challenges we are facing, in particular during these past years. And we've been hugely successful in managing through the headwinds over the past years, as evidenced by the financial results as shown on Slide 19.

如前所述，惠而浦一直積極應對我們面臨的挑戰，尤其是在過去幾年中。在過去幾年中，我們在克服逆風方面取得了巨大成功，如幻燈片 19 所示的財務業績所證明的那樣。

Our multiyear financial performance shows our structurally improved business, with expanding EBIT margins, significant EPS growth and strong ROIC. Our ongoing EBIT margin has improved, with a compound annual growth rate over 4%, and our ongoing earnings per share with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 13%, alongside strong returns on invested capital with a 6-point improvement since 2010.

我們多年的財務業績表明我們的業務結構得到改善，息稅前利潤率不斷擴大，每股收益顯著增長，投資回報率強勁。我們持續的息稅前利潤率有所改善，複合年增長率超過 4%，我們的持續每股收益複合年增長率約為 13%，同時投資資本回報率自 2010 年以來提高了 6 個百分點。

Now turning to Slide 21, I want to address how we are well positioned to benefit from long-term demand tailwinds. While we are experiencing short-term demand softness, we're at the same time very optimistic about the mid- and long-term demand trends, in particular in North America.

現在轉向幻燈片 21，我想談談我們如何能夠從長期需求順風中受益。雖然我們正在經歷短期需求疲軟，但我們同時對中長期需求趨勢非常樂觀，尤其是在北美。

Let me start by giving you a more detailed perspective on the U.S. appliance demand. As discussed in previous earnings calls, it has 2 fundamental components: Replacement demand, which currently represents 55% of our total market; and the discretionary demand.

讓我首先讓您更詳細地了解美國家電需求。正如之前的財報電話會議所討論的，它有兩個基本組成部分：替換需求，目前占我們總市場的 55%；和可自由支配的需求。

With the trough of a 2008 to 2011 replacement cycle now behind us, replacement demand has been very stable and even growing. And we do expect further momentum on the replacement side of the demand due to a significantly increased appliance usage over past years, as evidenced in the data which we see from our connected appliances.

隨著 2008 年至 2011 年更換週期的低谷已經過去，更換需求一直非常穩定，甚至還在增長。我們確實預計，由於過去幾年電器使用量顯著增加，需求更換方面的勢頭會進一步增強，正如我們從連接電器中看到的數據所證明的那樣。

What has still not fully recovered from the great recession in 2008 is the discretionary demand side which ultimately is driven by the housing market. Moving to Slide 22, you can clearly see a strong connection between existing home sales and overall appliance demand. Existing home sales were slowly recovering from the great recession, but still haven't reached prerecession levels. At the same time, overall appliance demand is also slowly recovering to essentially prerecession levels.

從 2008 年的大衰退中仍未完全恢復的是可自由支配的需求端，最終由房地產市場驅動。轉到幻燈片 22，您可以清楚地看到現有房屋銷售與整體家電需求之間的緊密聯繫。成屋銷售正從大衰退中緩慢復甦，但仍未達到衰退前的水平。與此同時，整體家電需求也在緩慢恢復到基本衰退前的水平。

Turning to Slide 23, we show the same data in a bit of a more granular view, as well as our prediction over the next 2 years. Obviously, existing home sales declined sharply in 2022, reflecting the mortgage rate shock keeping both new buyers away from the market as well as keeping prospective sellers from selling due to existing fixed mortgage rates which are significantly lower than current mortgage rates.

轉到幻燈片 23，我們以更細化的視角展示了相同的數據，以及我們對未來 2 年的預測。顯然，現房銷售在 2022 年急劇下降，這反映了抵押貸款利率的衝擊使新買家遠離市場，以及由於現有的固定抵押貸款利率遠低於當前的抵押貸款利率，使潛在賣家無法出售。

However, that doesn't change the fact that there's compounded pent-up demand for millennials as they reach prime homebuying years. We do expect home price appreciation to slow down and housing inventory to slowly improve to more historic levels. And ultimately, existing home sales will turn back to historical averages of above 6 million units per year.

然而，這並沒有改變這樣一個事實，即隨著千禧一代進入黃金購房年齡，他們被壓抑的需求越來越大。我們確實預計房價升值將放緩，住房庫存將緩慢改善至歷史水平。最終，現房銷售量將回到每年 600 萬套以上的歷史平均水平。

Now turning to Slide 24. I will share my perspective on new housing in the U.S. and its impact on Whirlpool. New housing contributes approximately 15% of appliance demand in the U.S. New housing construction has significantly lagged historical averages for more than a decade.

現在轉到幻燈片 24。我將分享我對美國新住房及其對惠而浦的影響的看法。新房約占美國家電需求的 15%。十多年來，新房建設明顯落後於歷史平均水平。

For perspective, consider this. From 1968 to 2008, a 40-year span, there was only 1 year in which fewer than 1.2 million new housing units were built. But much of [the years] between 2010 and 2017 was below this level, leading to the oldest U.S. housing stock in the country's history. In total, we estimate an undersupply of housing of approximately 3 million to 4 million units. While we do not expect new housing to reach what we call steady-state supply of 1.7 million to 1.9 million units in 2022 or 2023, we do expect 2024 to show meaningful progress towards this level.

為了透視，考慮一下。從1968年到2008年，40年的時間裡，僅1年的時間新建了不到120萬套住房。但 2010 年至 2017 年的大部分時間都低於這個水平，導緻美國歷史上最古老的住房存量。總體而言，我們估計住房供應不足約 300 萬至 400 萬套。雖然我們預計新住房在 2022 年或 2023 年不會達到我們所說的 170 萬至 190 萬套的穩定供應量，但我們確實預計 2024 年將在這一水平上取得有意義的進展。

Turning to Slide 25, I will share some perspective of our major appliance business outside of the U.S. We expect to win the Americas and accelerate our growth in India. India in particular has a very long runway for growth due to favorable demographics and a still very low client penetration rate. We also fully expect to capture replacement demand with our strong share positions in Canada, Brazil and Mexico.

轉到幻燈片 25，我將分享我們對美國以外主要家電業務的一些看法。我們希望贏得美洲並加速我們在印度的增長。由於有利的人口結構和仍然非常低的客戶滲透率，印度的增長之路尤其漫長。我們還完全期望通過我們在加拿大、巴西和墨西哥的強大份額來捕捉替代需求。

And in India, we recently expanded our offering with a majority stake in Elica of India in '21, and we just started the production of front-load washers in India. And we want to continue to invest in this business. Combined with the best portfolio of brands, including Consul and Brastemp, each generating $1 billion in sales in Brazil, we are well positioned outside the U.S.

在印度，我們最近在 21 年以印度 Elica 的多數股權擴大了我們的產品範圍，我們剛剛開始在印度生產前置式洗衣機。我們希望繼續投資這項業務。結合最好的品牌組合，包括 Consul 和 Brastemp，每個品牌在巴西的銷售額都達到 10 億美元，我們在美國以外的市場處於有利地位。

Let me now move on to our last agenda item and discuss our progress on our portfolio transformation towards a higher-margin and higher-growth business. As you can see on Slide 27, these efforts have been underway for some time. Since 2018, we have executed multiple steps to streamline and optimize our portfolio, and are excited to add the InSinkErator business to the portfolio.

現在讓我繼續我們的最後一個議程項目，並討論我們在向更高利潤和更高增長的業務轉型方面取得的進展。正如您在幻燈片 27 中看到的那樣，這些努力已經進行了一段時間。自 2018 年以來，我們已經執行了多個步驟來簡化和優化我們的產品組合，並且很高興將愛適易業務添加到產品組合中。

On Slide 28, I will remind you of the 3 strong pillars that will accelerate our portfolio transformation towards a higher-margin and higher-growth business.

在幻燈片 28 上，我將提醒您 3 個強大的支柱，它們將加速我們的投資組合向更高利潤和更高增長的業務轉型。

Our global small appliance business our commercial appliance business both delivered strong margins, over 15%. And with the addition of InSinkErator, we have taken yet another significant step to strengthen our major appliance business, specifically in North America. Bringing an iconic brand to Whirlpool, one that is the largest manufacturer of food waste disposals and instant hot water dispensers with more than 70% of the U.S. industry, adding approximately $1.25 EPS accretion in '23.

我們的全球小家電業務我們的商用家電業務均實現了強勁的利潤率，超過 15%。隨著愛適易的加入，我們又邁出了重要的一步，以加強我們的主要家電業務，特別是在北美。為 Whirlpool 帶來一個標誌性品牌，Whirlpool 是最大的食品垃圾處理和即時熱水分配器製造商，占美國工業的 70% 以上，23 年每股收益增加約 1.25 美元。

As Joe mentioned, we expect the acquisition to close on October 31. We expect to continue to invest in building Whirlpool as a higher-growth and higher-margin business as we continue to deliver significant shareholder returns.

正如喬所說，我們預計此次收購將於 10 月 31 日完成。隨著我們繼續為股東帶來可觀的回報，我們預計將繼續投資將惠而浦打造成一個更高增長和更高利潤的業務。

Now turning to Slide 29. I will provide an update on the strategic review of our EMEA business. We have been assessing a number of options for our business to a goal of maximizing long-term value. We have 2 guiding principles as we navigate this review: One, what creates the most value for Whirlpool Corporation; two, what is required for future success in Europe.

現在轉到幻燈片 29。我將提供有關我們 EMEA 業務戰略審查的最新信息。我們一直在為我們的業務評估多種選擇，以實現長期價值最大化的目標。在我們瀏覽本次審查時，我們有 2 條指導原則：第一，為 Whirlpool Corporation 創造最大價值的東西；第二，未來在歐洲取得成功需要什麼。

We received significant interest from a number of parties and narrowed the discussions to the final negotiations with 2 strategic investors. Given the confidential nature of these discussions, we are unable to share further details but will provide an update no later than on our fourth quarter earnings call. Again, our focus is to ensure we have the strongest business for our shareholders and employees, further supporting our portfolio transformation towards a high-growth and high-margin business.

我們收到了多方的濃厚興趣，並將討論範圍縮小到與 2 個戰略投資者的最終談判。鑑於這些討論的機密性，我們無法分享更多細節，但將在不遲於第四季度財報電話會議上提供更新。同樣，我們的重點是確保我們為股東和員工提供最強大的業務，進一步支持我們的投資組合向高增長和高利潤業務的轉型。

In parallel with reviewing external options, we also revisited our internal continuation plan. We have completed a pressure test of all our business segments and evaluated strategic alternatives. Additionally, we have worked diligently to develop a sustainable and attractive business case for the region. Ultimately, this will serve as a comparison and alternative path to any external option.

在審查外部選項的同時，我們還重新審視了我們的內部延續計劃。我們已經完成了對所有業務部門的壓力測試並評估了戰略選擇。此外，我們一直在努力為該地區開發可持續且有吸引力的商業案例。最終，這將作為任何外部選項的比較和替代途徑。

Now let me close with a few remarks and turn to Slide 30. We have a proven track record of successfully operating through cycles. And despite the significant industry headwinds we're facing, we still expect 2022 to be the second-best year in our 111-year history.

現在讓我用幾句話作為結束，然後轉到幻燈片 30。我們擁有成功通過週期運行的良好記錄。儘管我們面臨著重大的行業逆風，但我們仍然預計 2022 年將是我們 111 年曆史上第二好的一年。

We have the right strategy and actions in place to navigate the current environment. We've largely offset raw material inflation with decisive pricing actions, we have initiated cost actions which will deliver $500 million of benefit in 2023 and adjusted inventories to reflect the current demand.

我們制定了正確的策略和行動來應對當前環境。我們通過果斷的定價行動在很大程度上抵消了原材料通脹，我們已經啟動了成本行動，將在 2023 年帶來 5 億美元的收益，並調整庫存以反映當前的需求。

We are reiterating our long-term growth outlook, and based on the initiatives we are taking, we believe that Whirlpool will exit the current and temporary industry lull in high operating margin. At the same time, we continue to advance our portfolio transformation, leaving us well positioned to continue to deliver strong shareholder value.

我們正在重申我們的長期增長前景，並且基於我們正在採取的舉措，我們相信惠而浦將在高營業利潤率下擺脫當前和暫時的行業平靜。與此同時，我們繼續推進我們的投資組合轉型，使我們能夠繼續為股東創造強大的價值。

Now we will end our formal remarks and open it up for questions.

現在我們將結束我們的正式發言並提出問題。

(Operator Instructions) And your first question comes from the line of Sam Darkatsh from Raymond James.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自 Raymond James 的 Sam Darkatsh。

A couple of questions. The first around raws and the second around production. I mean, I guess the -- I was originally going to ask you why the spread of possible raw material inflation in the fourth quarter was so wide. But I'm guessing that's mostly a function of you're not entirely sure yet what demand and production might look like.

幾個問題。第一個圍繞原材料，第二個圍繞生產。我的意思是，我猜——我最初是要問你為什麼第四季度可能的原材料通脹的傳播範圍如此之大。但我猜這主要是因為你還不完全確定需求和生產可能是什麼樣子。

And so I'm really more interested in your '23 thoughts. I think in your prepared remarks, you mentioned that the first half of '23, you might see raw material inflate year-on-year. And I'm confused as to why that might be given the steel contract resets and what have you. So could you give some more quantification or clarification in terms of what you're expecting for raws next year?

所以我真的對你 23 歲的想法更感興趣。我認為在您準備好的講話中，您提到 23 年上半年，您可能會看到原材料同比上漲。我很困惑為什麼鋼鐵合同會重置，你有什麼。那麼，您能否就明年對原料的預期給出更多量化或澄清？

So Sam, it's Marc. Let me maybe first talk about the raw materials, and then I would have Joe commenting on production, reduction and how we feel about the inventories.

山姆，是馬克。讓我先談談原材料，然後讓喬評論生產、減少以及我們對庫存的看法。

So first of all, on raw material, you obviously saw that was still quite a bit of an element in Q3, of 7.5% impact on the EBIT margin. Obviously, [on cost] and more. And that has, as we indicated, we expect that, that is pretty much peaked in Q3, however, Q4 not being materially better.

因此，首先，在原材料方面，您顯然在第三季度看到這仍然是一個相當大的因素，對息稅前利潤率有 7.5% 的影響。顯然，[成本]等等。正如我們所指出的那樣，我們預計這在第三季度幾乎達到頂峰，但是，第四季度並沒有實質性好轉。

So let me first talk about Q4. Part of the reason is -- and there's 2 reasons why it's not materially better. One is spot prices have not come down a whole lot yet. But I emphasize yet. The second part is keep in mind, big parts of our raw materials are under hedging contracts or similar contracts, in particular, steel and plastics. So even though when the spot prices start moving in the right direction, the impact you see on contractual terms are not yet fully visible, but they will at one point.

所以讓我先談談Q4。部分原因是 - 有兩個原因表明它在物質上並沒有更好。一是現貨價格還沒有大幅下跌。但我強調一下。第二部分請記住，我們的大部分原材料都處於對沖合約或類似合約之下，尤其是鋼鐵和塑料。因此，即使當現貨價格開始朝著正確的方向移動時，您看到的對合同條款的影響還沒有完全顯現出來，但它們會在某一時刻顯現出來。

So to really clarify, and I'm glad you're raising it. On the first half, we're not saying it's increasing. We say it starts to ease. So we do expect raw materials to come down and starting coming down throughout the first half. But I don't think you will see a dramatic change kind of year-over-year, and I think you see much more favorable comparisons to back half. But we do absolutely see an easing of raw material in the first half, and we will give you much more detail then in our January earnings call around raw materials.

所以要真正澄清一下，我很高興你提出來。在上半年，我們並不是說它在增加。我們說它開始緩解。因此，我們確實預計原材料會下降，並在整個上半年開始下降。但我認為你不會看到同比發生巨大變化，而且我認為你會看到與後半部分更有利的比較。但我們確實看到上半年原材料價格有所放緩，我們將在 1 月份關於原材料的財報電話會議上為您提供更多細節。

Joe, on the production?

喬，在製作上？

Yes. Thanks, Marc. This is Joe. Related to production, we did see the industry a little bit softer than we anticipated. So we made very decisive actions to rightsize our production, and ultimately our inventory, to ensure we were in sync with where we saw the market developing. We expect that kind of continuing into Q4.

是的。謝謝，馬克。這是喬。與生產相關，我們確實看到該行業比我們預期的要疲軟一些。因此，我們採取了非常果斷的行動來調整我們的生產規模，並最終調整我們的庫存，以確保我們與我們看到的市場發展同步。我們預計這種情況會持續到第四季度。

And so we took those actions in a sharp manner to make sure that we were rightsized and then ready for upcoming Q4 holiday promotions and the demand that we saw ahead of us. Those actions were very pronounced, 35% reduction in production globally.

因此，我們採取了嚴厲的措施，以確保我們的規模得到適當調整，然後為即將到來的第四季度假日促銷和我們看到的需求做好準備。這些行動非常明顯，全球產量減少了 35%。

So as indicated in the prepared remarks, that's a level that we not seen historically. The other parallel would be early on in COVID, we took a similar amount of production out just given all the things happening. So very pronounced, very decisive. But it got us to a nice balanced position, that we think, going forward. But it responds to where we're going to be with the market.

因此，正如準備好的評論中所指出的，這是我們歷史上從未見過的水平。另一個相似之處是在 COVID 的早期，考慮到所有正在發生的事情，我們進行了類似數量的生產。非常明顯，非常果斷。但它讓我們處於一個很好的平衡位置，我們認為，繼續前進。但它回應了我們將要面對的市場。

Joe, why would you ramp production back up in the fourth quarter, at least I think that's what you're anticipating, based on demand still being weak and the need to retain as much price as you can in '23 once raws come off. I'm confused as to why you just took one big bite out of the apple as opposed to keeping production really modest until you start to see stabilizing trends.

喬，你為什麼要在第四季度重新增加產量，至少我認為這是你所預期的，因為需求仍然疲軟，並且一旦原料脫落，需要在 23 年保持盡可能多的價格。我很困惑為什麼你只是從蘋果中咬了一口，而不是在你開始看到穩定趨勢之前保持產量非常低。

Yes. Maybe that wasn't clear, Sam. But the intent was we rightsized in the quarter given the environment we're in, which is slightly worse than we anticipated from an industry standpoint. That got us to the right level. So from here on out, we'll essentially be more in sync and managing production with output as is more typical. And so there isn't an assumption of a big ramp down or a big ramp up. That wasn't the implication. It was more about adjusting and synchronizing in Q3. And then now it's in sync with our expectations for Q4.

是的。山姆，也許這不是很清楚。但考慮到我們所處的環境，我們的意圖是在本季度調整規模，這比我們從行業角度預期的要差一些。這使我們達到了正確的水平。因此，從現在開始，我們基本上將更加同步，並以更典型的方式管理生產與輸出。因此，不存在大幅下降或大幅上升的假設。那不是暗示。更多的是關於第三季度的調整和同步。然後現在它與我們對第四季度的預期同步。

Or Sam, put it different. It's Marc. In Q3, we produced significantly less than we sold. And in Q4, that these numbers will be much more aligned. In North America, we'll pretty much sell what we produce, and produce what we sell. So now in absolute terms, that may be, in North America, slightly higher than Q3. But we will be very careful about not getting ahead of ourselves in production.

或者山姆，換一種說法。是馬克。在第三季度，我們的產量大大低於我們的銷售額。在第四季度，這些數字將更加一致。在北美，我們幾乎會銷售我們生產的產品，並生產我們銷售的產品。所以現在從絕對值來看，在北美，這可能略高於第三季度。但我們會非常小心，不要在生產中超越自己。

So frankly, the other reason why we decided to take a big step in Q3, and I'm glad it's behind us, even e more P&L impacts are not fully behind us. But if we're convinced that the peak cost inflation was in Q3, we just thought, why would you want to produce full volumes when you think it's the highest cost base? So we want to take the step now, and it's behind us. So from an operational perspective, and that puts us in a very good position to deal with the next couple of quarters.

坦率地說，我們決定在第三季度邁出一大步的另一個原因，我很高興它已經過去了，甚至更多的損益影響還沒有完全過去。但是，如果我們確信成本通脹的峰值出現在第三季度，我們只是想，當您認為這是最高成本基礎時，為什麼還要全量生產呢？所以我們現在想邁出這一步，它已經在我們身後。因此，從運營的角度來看，這使我們處於應對接下來幾個季度的非常有利的位置。

I do want to add, Marc. That's true also globally. So that phenomenon, though the characteristics are slightly different, those themes are true globally, which is important given all the things that we've experienced.

我確實想補充一點，馬克。在全球範圍內也是如此。所以這種現象，雖然特徵略有不同，但這些主題在全球範圍內都是真實的，考慮到我們所經歷的所有事情，這一點很重要。

Your next question comes from the line of Eric Bosshard from Cleveland Research.

您的下一個問題來自 Cleveland Research 的 Eric Bosshard。

Two things, if I could. First of all, the price/mix realization in the quarter was, I think, 200 basis points different than you expected 90 days ago. What changed to influence that different result?

兩件事，如果可以的話。首先，我認為本季度的價格/組合實現與您 90 天前的預期相差 200 個基點。是什麼改變影響了不同的結果？

This is Joe. Really, the price/mix -- I mean, we did get a better availability position. And as a consequence, we were able to go to market in ways that we thought were productive. Now that go-to-market action was slightly more intensive or elevated than we anticipated originally, and that was a function of a couple of things: Us being in a better position from an availability standpoint and us seeing opportunities in the market. As a consequence, those were productive. And in North America, specifically, we were able to gain shares slightly from Q2 to Q3 as a consequence of both availability and our go-to-market approach.

這是喬。真的，價格/組合——我的意思是，我們確實獲得了更好的可用性位置。因此，我們能夠以我們認為富有成效的方式進入市場。現在，進入市場的行動比我們最初預期的更加密集或升級，這是由於幾件事的作用：從可用性的角度來看，我們處於更好的位置，並且我們看到了市場中的機會。結果，這些都是富有成效的。特別是在北美，由於可用性和我們的上市方法，我們能夠從第二季度到第三季度略微獲得份額。

Okay. That make sense. I understand the availability. Can you just -- can you expand on the go-to-market approach? And I guess specifically, what I'm trying to figure out, is this participating more in promotions? Is this you being less aggressive on price increases? Is this retailers pushing back on price increases? Is it consumers buying down in mix? Like something is different. I appreciate that the go-to-market availability was better. But can you just expand on that a little bit, please?

好的。有道理。我了解可用性。你能不能——你能擴展進入市場的方法嗎？我想具體來說，我想弄清楚的是，這是否更多地參與了促銷活動？這是您對價格上漲的積極態度嗎？零售商是否在抵制漲價？是消費者混合購買嗎？好像有什麼不同。我很欣賞進入市場的可用性更好。但是，請您稍微擴展一下，好嗎？

Yes. I mean, there's obviously varied components in there, so there isn't just one answer for all things. But what I would say is there was some promotion involvement that we thought was accretive. So we participated there. There was also some launches. We had a new dishwasher launch that came out. And so there were some investments behind some new innovations as well. But by and large, those were slightly different than when we were in a constrained environment where we didn't have either of those 2 assets available to us.

是的。我的意思是，那裡顯然有各種各樣的組件，所以對所有事情都沒有一個答案。但我要說的是，我們認為有一些促銷參與是可以增加的。所以我們參加了那裡。也有一些發射。我們推出了一款新的洗碗機。因此，一些新的創新背後也有一些投資。但總的來說，這與我們在沒有這兩種資產的受限環境中的情況略有不同。

Eric, maybe just adding to this one. First of all, again, that's why we also included the slides about the past price increases. We have now in North America, but globally, 7 price increase behind us in a very short time period. So we certainly haven't been shy of passing on costs to the marketplace.

埃里克，也許只是添加到這個。首先，這就是為什麼我們還包括過去價格上漲的幻燈片。我們現在在北美，但在全球範圍內，在很短的時間內就出現了 7 次價格上漲。因此，我們當然不會害怕將成本轉嫁給市場。

What happened in Q3, and more specifically to your questions, yes, the market is slightly more promotional than, for example, 1 year ago or 0.5 years ago. I also want to point out it's not comparable to pre-COVID periods. So it is more promotional, more promotion, elevated. And that's what we probably expect to see also go-forward. But it's -- you can't compare it to pre-COVID time. So it's somewhere in between, and that's what we're just dealing right now with. And to Joe's point, the good news is you start seeing sequential share gains for our North America business, and that's good.

第三季度發生的事情，更具體地說，對於您的問題，是的，市場比例如 1 年前或 0.5 年前稍微更具促銷性。我還想指出，這與 COVID 之前的時期無法相提並論。所以它是更多的促銷，更多的促銷，提升。這就是我們可能期望看到的未來。但它 - 你無法將它與 COVID 之前的時間進行比較。所以它介於兩者之間，這就是我們現在正在處理的問題。就喬而言，好消息是您開始看到我們北美業務的份額連續增長，這很好。

Your next question comes from the line of Susan Maklari from Goldman Sachs.

您的下一個問題來自高盛的 Susan Maklari。

My first question is can you talk a little bit about the channel inventories? Appreciating that you took drastic steps to align your businesses. But what are you seeing out in the channels?

我的第一個問題是你能談談渠道庫存嗎？感謝您採取了激烈的措施來調整您的業務。但是您在頻道中看到了什麼？

By and large -- this is Joe again. By and large, what we've seen is a fairly balanced perspective across all of our channels. We don't believe that we're undersupplied or oversupplied. And a lot of that has to do with the adjustments we've made throughout [2022], I would say. A few quarters back, we were still in constrained positions where we were undersupplied. That's no longer the case. We feel like we're right where we need to be holistically across the channels, and frankly, well positioned given we exited Q3 with all the adjustments that we made. So I think that feels like a really good spot to be in and where we wanted to end.

總的來說——這又是喬。總的來說，我們所看到的是我們所有渠道的相當平衡的觀點。我們不認為我們供應不足或供應過剩。我想說，這在很大程度上與我們在整個 [2022] 年所做的調整有關。幾個季度前，我們仍然處於供應不足的受限位置。情況不再如此。我們覺得我們需要在各個渠道整體上處於正確的位置，坦率地說，鑑於我們在第三季度進行了所有調整，因此處於有利地位。所以我認為這是一個非常好的地方，也是我們想要結束的地方。

Okay. And then perhaps taking a bit of a longer-term approach. Can you talk a little bit about how we think of the North American margin being at that 10% this quarter, relative to that longer-term target that you've set for us in the mid-teens range? What are the steps that we'll need to see in order to get back there? And is that still the right range as you think about where the consumer and where the business is?

好的。然後也許會採取一些長期的方法。您能否談談我們如何看待本季度北美利潤率為 10% 的情況，相對於您為我們設定的長期目標在 10 歲左右？為了回到那裡，我們需要看到哪些步驟？當您考慮消費者和企業在哪裡時，這仍然是正確的範圍嗎？

Susan, it's Marc. So maybe I can give a perspective. So nothing has changed in our perspective about what would be long-term structural margins in North America.

蘇珊，我是馬克。所以也許我可以給出一個觀點。因此，我們對北美長期結構性利潤率的看法沒有任何改變。

And to be a little bit more specific. When we had the North America business on 17%, 18% margin, we -- I mean, we felt that it's probably a little bit higher than we see the long-term structural margin. But by the same token, we think -- feel right now the 10% are also not reflective of structural margins, for 2 reasons.

並且更具體一點。當我們的北美業務利潤率為 17% 和 18% 時，我們——我的意思是，我們覺得這可能比我們看到的長期結構利潤率高一點。但出於同樣的原因，我們認為——現在感覺 10% 也不能反映結構性利潤率，原因有兩個。

One is just if you -- in the most simple way to explain it is kind of, you have 2 major macro cycles are out of sync right now, i.e., demand is down and cost is up. That is a -- typically, cost follows demand. Now if you look back the last 20 years, that happened a few times, but it typically doesn't last very long. So to have these macro cycles out of sync to that extreme is highly unusual and will not last very long.

一個是如果你——用最簡單的方式來解釋它，你現在有兩個主要的宏觀週期不同步，即需求下降而成本上升。那是 - 通常，成本跟隨需求。現在，如果您回顧過去的 20 年，這種情況發生了幾次，但通常不會持續很長時間。因此，讓這些宏觀週期與極端不同步是非常不尋常的，並且不會持續很長時間。

And two, as Joe alluded to, the 35% production cut was also true for North America. So we have a significant impact of -- where you have a massive fixed cost business basically taking out that kind of volume, that of course is -- you feel it.

第二，正如喬所暗示的那樣，35% 的減產也適用於北美。所以我們有一個重大的影響——你有一個巨大的固定成本業務，基本上可以消除這種數量，當然是——你感覺到了。

So if you take these factors out of the equation, we're still coming back to -- these are the structural run rate margins which we communicated in the past, and we still absolutely feel they're achievable.

因此，如果您將這些因素排除在等式之外，我們仍然會回到 - 這些是我們過去傳達的結構性運行率利潤率，我們仍然絕對認為它們是可以實現的。

Now to your question about what needs to happen. The biggest step that should happen is the combination of external raw material costs coming down and us taking additional steps on our own cost takeout. These are the biggest, I would say, 0 to 12 months levers which we have to pull and which we're committed to pull.

現在回答你關於需要發生什麼的問題。應該發生的最大一步是外部原材料成本下降和我們在自己的成本支出上採取額外措施的結合。我想說，這些是我們必須拉動並且我們承諾拉動的最大的 0 到 12 個月的槓桿。

Your next question comes from the line of Mike Dahl from RBC Capital Markets.

您的下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Mike Dahl。

Marc, it's good to hear that InSinkErator's scheduled to close here just in the next couple of weeks. So I was wondering if you could give us any insight on how is that business performing against this recent environment that you've seen in your core business? And how should we be thinking about the financial impacts that are embedded in guidance for the fourth quarter related to InSinkErator?

Marc，很高興聽到 InSinkErator 計劃在接下來的幾週內關閉這裡。因此，我想知道您能否就您在核心業務中看到的最近環境中的業務表現如何向我們提供任何見解？我們應該如何考慮第四季度與愛適易相關的財務影響？

So Mike, let me maybe try to give you first answer, then I would ask Jim to more -- give you a little bit more financial perspectives.

所以邁克，讓我試著給你第一個答案，然後我會問吉姆更多——給你更多的財務觀點。

So first of all, we have not yet closed the transaction. That is expected to happen on October 31. Now obviously, we're very, very, very confident it will happen on that date and everything is on track. And as such, we have -- we're not yet controlling that business, and as such, we kind of cannot really fully communicate with them.

所以首先，我們還沒有關閉交易。這預計將在 10 月 31 日發生。現在顯然，我們非常、非常、非常有信心它會在那個日期發生，並且一切都在進行中。因此，我們 - 我們還沒有控制該業務，因此，我們有點無法真正與他們完全溝通。

What we hear is the margins are intact, which is good. But we also see similar demand or discretionary demand slightly coming down. The nature of that business has a little bit longer order pipeline, et cetera. So I would say, similar trends, similar actions. But the encouraging thing is the margins are very strong, keep on very strong, and the market share is very strong.

我們聽到的是邊距完好無損，這很好。但我們也看到類似的需求或可自由支配的需求略有下降。該業務的性質具有更長的訂單管道，等等。所以我想說，類似的趨勢，類似的行動。但令人鼓舞的是利潤率非常高，保持非常強勁，市場份額非常強勁。

So where everybody experiences the same elements in housing, and InSinkErator is not immune to that. But we strong believe this is an extremely healthy, strong and sustainable business. And we're happy that we are, hopefully -- or well, not hopefully. But we're going to be closing this transaction 10 days from now.

因此，每個人在住房中都體驗到相同的元素，而愛適易也不能倖免。但我們堅信這是一項極其健康、強大和可持續的業務。我們很高興我們有希望 - 或者好吧，沒有希望。但我們將在 10 天后結束這筆交易。

Jim, if you want to make, comment a little bit what people should expect for Q4 and going forward.

吉姆，如果你想做的話，請評論一下人們對第四季度和未來的期望。

Yes. Mike, this is Jim. I think last call, we disclosed that we see, for 2023, the impact of the InSinkErator business being about $1.25 per share. And so if you think about that, the 2 months that we will then be consolidating within the fourth quarter here would imply right around $0.20. But then also you do -- will have some effects that are related to just some of the -- how you account for an acquisition at the very beginning and a few things that you may have to adjust for. So that's probably the maximum amount you'd see. So it's going to be a pretty immaterial impact to the fourth quarter. And the bigger impact will be next year on a full year consolidated basis.

是的。邁克，這是吉姆。我認為在上次電話會議上，我們披露我們看到，到 2023 年，愛適易業務的影響約為每股 1.25 美元。因此，如果您考慮一下，我們將在第四季度合併的 2 個月將意味著大約 0.20 美元。但是你也會這樣做 - 會產生一些影響，這些影響與你在開始時如何解釋收購以及你可能需要調整的一些事情有關。所以這可能是你看到的最大數量。因此，這對第四季度的影響非常微不足道。更大的影響將是明年在全年綜合基礎上。

Got it. That's helpful. And then my follow-up. It's somewhat related, but just given the pressures you're seeing, you've taken down your free cash flow guidance. You have -- you are increasing your leverage to take on InSinkErator. Now you've got a lower free cash flow guide. It sounds like, at least through the first half of next year, you're still expecting some market pressures, some inflation pressures, so perhaps some further headwinds to free cash.

知道了。這很有幫助。然後是我的跟進。這有點相關，但考慮到您所看到的壓力，您已經取消了自由現金流指導。你有——你正在增加你的槓桿來應對愛適易。現在你有一個較低的自由現金流指南。聽起來，至少到明年上半年，你仍然期待一些市場壓力，一些通脹壓力，所以可能會有一些進一步的阻力來釋放現金。

How should we think about the implications vis-a-vis plans for deleveraging? How much net leverage you can kind of pay down post closing of the deal? And then what that means for your buyback? I know it's on pause, but just any thoughts around kind of timing of how you're thinking about that.

我們應該如何看待去槓桿化計劃的影響？交易結束後，您可以支付多少淨槓桿？那麼這對你的回購意味著什麼？我知道它處於暫停狀態，但只是關於你如何思考這個時間的任何想法。

Yes, Mike, this is Jim again. And I think if you remember when we talked about -- as we look at how we'll finance the transaction, is we'll use approximately $500 million of the existing cash on hand. And then through multiple term loans, we will finance another $2.5 billion. Which will put us about, next year, let's just say on a gross debt to leverage perspective, around in the neighborhood of 3.5.

是的，邁克，這又是吉姆。我想如果你還記得我們討論過的——當我們研究如何為交易融資時，我們將使用大約 5 億美元的現有現金。然後通過多筆定期貸款，我們將再融資 25 億美元。這將讓我們知道，明年，我們只說債務總額以槓桿作用的角度來看，大約在 3.5 左右。

As you mentioned, right now, we have suspended our buybacks. And we will be holding off on that until we begin to reduce our debt levels down, obviously, and that's what we said is going to be a focus go-forward.

正如你所提到的，現在，我們已經暫停了我們的回購。我們將推遲這一點，直到我們開始降低債務水平，顯然，這就是我們所說的將成為未來的重點。

But when we look at the structural cash flows of our business, which, as Marc alluded to before, haven't changed, and are just being impacted right now by a lower level of demand. But as that begins to come back, we expect our cash flows to come back to the levels we've seen in recent years, that we're above $1 billion per year, which will give us the ability to finance all of our different capital allocation priorities.

但是，當我們查看我們業務的結構性現金流時，正如 Marc 之前提到的那樣，它並沒有改變，只是現在受到較低需求水平的影響。但隨著這種情況開始恢復，我們預計我們的現金流將恢復到我們近年來看到的水平，我們每年超過 10 億美元，這將使我們有能力為我們所有不同的資本融資分配優先級。

So obviously, continue to fund our business, pay our dividend and bring our debt levels down. And then at some point in the future, once we get back to our targeted leverage areas, then obviously, share buyback will become a priority that we will focus more on then.

顯然，繼續為我們的業務提供資金，支付我們的股息並降低我們的債務水平。然後在未來的某個時候，一旦我們回到我們的目標槓桿區域，那麼顯然，股票回購將成為我們屆時將更加關注的優先事項。

I have to remind folks that if you look at the last 2 years leading up to this, our return to shareholders was over $2.5 billion when you look at share buybacks and dividends. So it's obviously been a focus of ours. We will continue to have that as a focus in the future.

我必須提醒人們，如果你看看這之前的過去 2 年，當你查看股票回購和股息時，我們對股東的回報超過 25 億美元。所以這顯然是我們的重點。我們將繼續將其作為未來的重點。

Mike, maybe just adding to this one. We pride ourselves -- we have a very strong balance sheet, and we'll have a very strong balance sheet after the InSinkErator acquisition. And that strong balance sheet gives us optionalities. Just to give you 2 more additional comments.

邁克，也許只是添加到這個。我們為自己感到自豪——我們擁有非常強大的資產負債表，在收購愛適易後，我們將擁有非常強大的資產負債表。強大的資產負債表為我們提供了選擇權。只是給你2個額外的評論。

First of all, when we're referring to leverage, keep in mind, we're referring to gross debt leverage, which is from -- by year-end, expect to be somewhere north of 3. Keep in mind that excludes the almost $2 billion cash which we have right now. So that's a gross debt leverage.

首先，當我們提到槓桿時，請記住，我們指的是總債務槓桿，它來自 - 到年底，預計會在 3 以北的某個地方。請記住，這不包括幾乎我們現在擁有的 20 億美元現金。所以這是一個總債務槓桿。

And the other way to look at our financial structure and debt structure, we basically had, over the last couple of years, a long-term debt level of about $5 billion. That is unchanged. What has changed is a little bit how we, over the last 5 years, refinanced and did the debt ladder. So the debt ladder is very good, very long. The average cost -- interest cost of these $5 billion is 2.9%. So extremely attractive in today's terms.

從另一個角度來看我們的財務結構和債務結構，在過去幾年中，我們基本上擁有大約 50 億美元的長期債務水平。那是不變的。改變的是我們在過去 5 年裡如何再融資和債務階梯。所以債務階梯非常好，非常長。這50億美元的平均成本——利息成本為2.9%。在今天的條件下非常有吸引力。

What Jim was referring to is how we, in the short term, finance the InSinkErator acquisition. Where we made the decision we "will only use $500 million of our cash and have on the rest in short-term loan or term loan." And we intend to pay that down pretty fast. And that meant, at the same time, maybe not entirely sequential, maybe to some extent, parallel, will then potentially open the space again for share buybacks.

Jim 指的是我們如何在短期內為收購 InSinkErator 提供資金。在我們做出決定的地方，我們“將僅使用 5 億美元的現金，其餘的將用於短期貸款或定期貸款。”我們打算很快償還。這意味著，與此同時，也許不是完全連續的，也許在某種程度上是平行的，然後可能會再次為股票回購打開空間。

Your next question comes from the line of Mike Rehaut from JPMorgan.

您的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Mike Rehaut。

First question. Just wanted to get a little clarity on 3Q and 4Q and some of the puts and takes. Obviously, you highlighted the 35% reduction in global production. And I was wondering, how much that specifically impacted your margins? And if you have the absence of that headwind in 4Q, why would you have kind of similar margins? I don't know if there's a further moderation in price/mix. You kind of mentioned promotions starting to kick up again. Any clarity around the impact of, again, inventory reductions in 3Q? And why wouldn't it be a little better in 4Q?

第一個問題。只是想了解一下 3Q 和 4Q 以及一些看跌期權。顯然，您強調了全球產量減少了 35%。我想知道，這對您的利潤率有多大影響？如果第四季度沒有逆風，為什麼會有類似的利潤率？我不知道價格/組合是否會進一步放緩。你有點提到促銷活動又開始了。第三季度庫存減少的影響是否清晰？為什麼第四季度不會好一點？

Michael, this is Jim. And let me kind of start with that. And so if you look at the 35% reduction we did in our production in the quarter, that cost us over $100 million. When you just think about the leverage you get within your factories and as Marc and Joe talked about, the level of fixed costs we have there. That cost actually does get spread across Q3 and Q4 because some of that does get hung up in inventory during this time period, and so it flows out throughout both quarters.

邁克爾，這是吉姆。讓我從那開始。因此，如果你看看我們在本季度的產量減少了 35%，那我們的成本超過了 1 億美元。當你想想你在工廠中獲得的影響力時，正如 Marc 和 Joe 所說，我們在那裡的固定成本水平。該成本實際上確實分佈在第三季度和第四季度，因為其中一些確實在這段時間內被掛在庫存中，因此它在兩個季度都流出。

Additionally, when you think about -- we talked about earlier, the peak of raw materials coming around Q3, which means -- and Marc mentioned this earlier. While we did reduce our inventory levels, and that still, the inventory that we have on hand right now is probably at a peak cost. So as that begins to flow out, you think about how that flows out in Q4, that also has an impact on the margin in Q3 and Q4. And that's why as we look at the rest of the year, we do believe we'll will be relatively flat. We aren't expecting a significant change in demand through those 2 quarters.

此外，當你想到——我們之前談到過，原材料的高峰期在第三季度左右，這意味著——馬克早些時候提到了這一點。雖然我們確實降低了庫存水平，但我們現在手頭的庫存可能處於最高成本。因此，當它開始流出時，你會考慮它在第四季度是如何流出的，這也會對第三季度和第四季度的利潤率產生影響。這就是為什麼當我們展望今年餘下的時間時，我們確實相信我們會相對平穩。我們預計這兩個季度的需求不會發生重大變化。

And then the last piece is just naturally in the seasonality of our business and how the promotional environment works, even when it's reduced, Q4 is your strongest or your highest amount of promotional spend within a year, no matter what the absolute amount is for the year. So that's also why you've got that seasonality effect in Q4.

然後最後一點自然是我們業務的季節性以及促銷環境如何運作，即使它減少了，Q4 是您一年內最強或最高的促銷支出，無論絕對金額是多少年。所以這也是你在第四季度得到季節性影響的原因。

Okay. No, no, that's a helpful rundown. I appreciate that. Secondly, I think there's been -- you kind of highlighted some key variables to think about for next year, and there's been a couple of questions. Just want to try and clarify a little bit across cost takeout, which is obviously can be a big margin benefit, but also raw materials and price/mix.

好的。不，不，這是一個有用的綱要。我很感激。其次，我認為有 - 你有點強調了明年要考慮的一些關鍵變量，並且有幾個問題。只是想嘗試澄清一下成本外賣，這顯然可以帶來很大的利潤收益，但原材料和價格/組合也是如此。

You kind of talking about, obviously, the headwinds that you expect in the first half, but then it should turn to tailwinds in the second half, at least in terms of raw materials. I was hoping to get some of your early expectations at this point. On a full year net basis, would you expect raw materials to be a headwind or a tailwind, based on current prices in the market today in -- or in steel and resins, et cetera?

顯然，您在談論您期望在上半年遇到的逆風，但在下半年應該會轉向順風，至少在原材料方面。我希望在這一點上得到你的一些早期期望。在全年淨額基礎上，根據當今市場或鋼鐵和樹脂等的當前價格，您認為原材料是逆風還是順風？

And with the cost takeout program, should we be thinking that perhaps you're going to give some of that back to the consumer amid a still softer demand environment? And what does that mean in terms of price/mix being even potentially negative?

通過成本扣除計劃，我們是否應該考慮在需求環境仍然疲軟的情況下，您可能會將其中的一部分返還給消費者？就價格/組合而言，這意味著什麼甚至可能是負面的？

So Michael, it's Marc. So let me try to answer your question. First of all, I would say upfront. Even in normal times, in the October call, we would be hesitant to give you a lot of perspective on '23. And I think we would all agree, we're not exactly in a normal time. So any forecast for '23, obviously, you need to take it with a grain of salt. So let me just run it down for the items where we don't want to or can't give you today's specific answers, and where you can get a little bit more color and perspective.

所以邁克爾，是馬克。所以讓我試著回答你的問題。首先，我要先說。即使在正常情況下，在 10 月的電話會議中，我們也會猶豫是否要給你很多關於 23 年的觀點。我想我們都會同意，我們不完全處於正常時期。因此，顯然，對於 23 年的任何預測，您都需要持保留態度。因此，讓我對我們不想或無法為您提供今天的具體答案以及您可以獲得更多色彩和視角的項目進行分析。

So the first one, going through P&L. Demand, and I would say -- and pricing, is right now too uncertain to forecast. The global demand, or some elements driven in terms of consumer sentiments, and ultimately also relating to what happens to mortgage rates, what happens to be war in Ukraine. So there's a lot of macro factors which, if we like it or not, will weigh on short-term demand.

所以第一個，通過損益表。需求，我想說 - 和定價，現在太不確定了，無法預測。全球需求，或一些由消費者情緒驅動的因素，最終也與抵押貸款利率的變化、烏克蘭的戰爭有關。所以有很多宏觀因素，不管我們喜歡與否，都會對短期需求造成壓力。

Doesn't change our long-term demand or midterm demand outlook. But of course, there needs to be some macro concerns being reduced or eliminated before we see a significant pickup of consumer confidence. So that's probably the demand and correlated then, or related to this on pricing, is the biggest uncertainty. And we will give you our perspective in January.

不會改變我們的長期需求或中期需求前景。但當然，在我們看到消費者信心顯著回升之前，需要減少或消除一些宏觀擔憂。所以這可能是需求和相關的，或者與定價相關的，是最大的不確定性。我們將在一月份給你我們的觀點。

If you want to get my personal perspective for Q3, Q4 and probably Q1, I think we would still see a depressed and volatile demand environment. And afterwards, we got to see.

如果您想了解我對第三季度、第四季度甚至第一季度的個人看法，我認為我們仍然會看到一個低迷且動蕩的需求環境。之後，我們必須看到。

Then on the cost side, the $500 million net cost reduction I was referred to earlier, we can confirm that. And if you want to say so, you can include that in your spreadsheet because that's what you will also hear in January. The raw materials side, we have not quantified. But obviously, as you could see here from our comments, we do expect gradual easing of raw material side. And yes, on a full year base, we absolutely do expect this to become a positive factor, i.e., no more increase but rather a decrease of raw material. The magnitude of which, we will clarify and quantify in January. But we do expect a reduction of raw material cost.

然後在成本方面，我之前提到的 5 億美元的淨成本降低，我們可以證實這一點。如果您想說，您可以將其包含在您的電子表格中，因為這也是您在一月份會聽到的內容。原材料方面，我們沒有量化。但顯然，正如您從我們的評論中看到的那樣，我們確實預計原材料方面會逐漸放鬆。是的，在全年的基礎上，我們絕對預計這將成為一個積極因素，即原材料不再增加而是減少。其中的幅度，我們將在一月份進行澄清和量化。但我們確實預計原材料成本會降低。

Your next question comes from the line of Ken Zener from KeyBanc Capital Markets.

您的下一個問題來自 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Ken Zener。

Jim, I wonder if you could go back to this curtailment, just I think I'm getting confused a little bit. The -- obviously, what are you -- generally, what do you talk about in terms of unit leverage within your business? I always thought it was kind of in that 15%, 20% range. And I think you just mentioned there was $100 million of dollar headwind in third quarter associated with the curtailment in North America. Was that right? so that's about 3...

吉姆，我想知道你是否可以回到這種縮減，只是我想我有點困惑。 - 顯然，你是什麼 - 一般來說，你在你的業務中談論的單位槓桿是什麼？我一直認為它在 15%、20% 的範圍內。我想你剛剛提到第三季度與北美的削減有關的逆風有 1 億美元。對嗎？所以大約是3...

Well, not in North America. But I said there was, Ken, within -- we see, due to the reduction we did, approximately a little bit more than $100 million due to the -- that will come through in Q3 and Q4 through our P&L.

好吧，不是在北美。但我說，Ken，在我們看到，由於我們所做的減少，大約超過 1 億美元，因為這將在第三季度和第四季度通過我們的損益表實現。

Q3 and Q4. Okay. Then -- and I think, Joe, you talked about, in various words, gaining some share sequentially, productive share gains, i.e., higher volume associated with promotions. And Marc, you said nothing like pre-COVID, but still a kind of drag.

第三季度和第四季度。好的。然後 - 我認為，喬，你談到了，用不同的話來說，依次獲得一些份額，生產性份額增加，即與促銷相關的更高銷量。馬克，你沒有說什麼像新冠病毒之前那樣，但仍然是一種拖累。

And I think it's obviously -- it's understandable, everyone's trying to narrow in on the cost basis or where you are in terms of volume in the business, if we were to be, let's say, flat next year, if the margins would get us back to that longer-term guidance, just because this year is exiting at such a lower rate, right, bifurcated second half, first half. And I'm not sure if any of us know exactly where the existing homes are going to go next year given where rates are right now.

而且我認為這很明顯 - 這是可以理解的，每個人都試圖縮小成本基礎或您在業務量方面的位置，如果我們明年保持不變，比如說，如果利潤率能讓我們回到那個長期指導，僅僅因為今年的退出速度如此之低，對，下半年和上半年分叉。而且我不確定我們中是否有人確切知道明年現有房屋的去向，因為目前的利率是多少。

So is there a way that you could kind of talk about, isolate, those margin drags associated with the production and the promotion level? Because that promotion obviously helped increase your volume versus a more stable run rate. Does that make sense at all, gentlemen? It's such a big cut in the margins as we exit the year, is my question.

那麼有沒有一種方法可以讓您談論、隔離與生產和促銷水平相關的利潤拖累？因為與更穩定的運行速度相比，該促銷顯然有助於增加您的銷量。先生們，這有意義嗎？我的問題是，當我們退出這一年時，利潤率大幅下降。

Here. And maybe, Ken, let me kind of start on a few of the points there, and then I'll ask Joe and Marc to -- I think if you start to think about next year and the opportunities for cost reduction that will come, possibly with at least a demand headwind, as Marc mentioned, in the first quarter or early in the year.

這裡。也許，肯，讓我從那裡的幾個要點開始，然後我會請喬和馬克 - 我想如果你開始考慮明年以及即將到來的降低成本的機會，正如馬克所說，在第一季度或年初，可能至少會遇到需求逆風。

As we come out of this year, what -- we'll start with a healthy level of inventory, which then allows us to run our factories in a very efficient way. And allows us to, hopefully, as we look at the demand environment and stay in check with it, and Joe used the word synchronization earlier, that we synchronize our production with the demand environment, it takes that volatility out, which has a cost and has an inefficiency to it.

當我們今年結束時，我們將從健康的庫存水平開始，然後使我們能夠以非常有效的方式運營我們的工廠。希望讓我們能夠，當我們查看需求環境並保持檢查時，喬之前使用了同步這個詞，我們將生產與需求環境同步，它消除了這種波動，這需要成本和效率低下。

So as we look forward, I think what you saw was such a big reduction here that we talked about because the market and the demand did move very quickly. We've now adjusted to that level, and we believe we can keep our production at that level. And then as demand would increase, ramp it up appropriately.

因此，正如我們展望的那樣，我認為您在這裡看到的是我們談到的如此大幅度的減少，因為市場和需求確實變化得非常快。我們現在已經調整到那個水平，我們相信我們可以將我們的生產保持在那個水平。然後隨著需求的增加，適當增加。

So I think as you think about next year, you do get efficiencies and cost savings that are part of that broader $500 million that Marc talked about. But that's just one of many components that would be in there.

因此，我認為當您考慮明年時，您確實會獲得效率和成本節約，這是 Marc 談到的更廣泛的 5 億美元的一部分。但這只是其中的許多組件之一。

Thank you, Jim. I think this was the last question which we have on the call. So let me maybe just quickly wrap up here. So as you heard throughout the prepared remarks and also in the Q&A, we are dealing with the headwinds of what you've seen in recessionary demand environment, and we're dealing with that proactively and decisively. We've done so and we will continue to do so.

謝謝你，吉姆。我認為這是我們在電話會議上提出的最後一個問題。所以讓我也許只是快速結束這裡。因此，正如您在準備好的講話和問答中所聽到的那樣，我們正在應對您在衰退需求環境中看到的逆風，我們正在積極果斷地應對。我們已經這樣做了，我們將繼續這樣做。

At the same time, we are not yet experiencing the tailwinds which comes in a recession in the form of cost reduction. We will at one point. And we have also announced that we'll take, on top of the additional cost actions internally and how we will bring down fixed and variable costs.

與此同時，我們還沒有經歷經濟衰退中以降低成本的形式出現的順風。我們會在某一時刻。我們還宣布，我們將在內部採取額外的成本行動以及我們將如何降低固定和可變成本。

Beyond the short-term recessionary environment, the tricky question is how we're positioned to post-recession environment. And on that note, as you hopefully heard, is we continue to be very upbeat about the mid- and long-term demand trends, which shows significant opportunity for us, with everything which we've done on reducing and lowering breakeven points, with everything we've done on product innovation, branding, I think we're very well positioned for a post-recessionary environment, which at one point, will come.

除了短期衰退環境之外，棘手的問題是我們如何應對衰退後的環境。在這方面，正如您希望聽到的那樣，我們是否繼續對中長期需求趨勢非常樂觀，這為我們提供了巨大的機會，我們在減少和降低盈虧平衡點方面所做的一切，我們在產品創新、品牌推廣方面所做的一切，我認為我們已經為後經濟衰退的環境做好了準備，在某一時刻，這種環境將會到來。

So with that in mind, I thank you all for joining us today and wish you a wonderful Friday. Thank you.

因此，考慮到這一點，我感謝大家今天加入我們，並祝你們週五愉快。謝謝你。

Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

女士們，先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連接。