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Operator
Greetings and welcome to the Winnebago Industries first quarter 2011 earnings conference call.
At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode.
A brief question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation.
(Operator Instructions).
As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.
It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Ms.
Sheila Davis, Public Relations and Investor Relations Manager for Winnebago Industries.Thank you.
Ms.
Davis, you may begin.
- PR and IR Manager
Thank you.
Good morning.
Welcome to Winnebago Industries conference call to review the Company's results for the first quarter and fiscal year 2011 ended November 27, 2010.
Conducting the call today are Bob Olson, Winnebago Industries' Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer and President, and Sarah Nielsen, Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.
I trust each of you have received a copy of the news release with our earnings results this morning.
This call is being broadcast live on our website at winnebagoind.com.
A replay of the call will be available on our website at approximately 12 PM noon today Central time.
If you have any questions about accessing any of this information, please call our Investor Relations department at 641-585-6803 following the conference call.
Before we start, it's my duty to inform you this presentation may contain certain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.
Investors are cautioned that forward-looking statements are inherently uncertain.
A number of factors could cause actual results to differ materially from these statements.
These factors are identified in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission over the last 12 months, copies of which are available from the SEC or from the Company upon request.
I'll now turn the call over to Bob Olson.
Bob?
- Chairman, CEO and President
Thank you, Sheila.
Good morning and welcome to Winnebago Industries first quarter conference call.
Profitability has been our main goal throughout this recession and I am very happy to report we achieved operational profitability for the third consecutive quarter.
Every single member of our Winnebago Industries team has helped us achieve this goal and I first want to thank them for their hard work and fortitude.
Sarah will go through the financial details in a moment but these results are primarily a result of higher motor home deliveries throughout the quarter.
We are pleased with the acceptance of our new 2011 Class A and Class C products particularly redesigned Winnebago Tour and Ellipse motor homes at the recent National RV Trade Show in Louisville, Kentucky.
The Tour and Ellipse have very eye-catching new exterior designs as well as four floor plans very unique within the RV industry which creates separate distinct living areas within the coach.
One of the favorites of these new floor plans in the Tour and Ellipse product line for 2011 includes the new 42QD tag-axle floorplan with a bath and half design, and Winnebago Industries exclusive, extendable, exceptional sofa.
We also introduced the new 2012 Class A motor home.
We also introduced our new 2012 ERA Class B motor home at the show.
We took a brief hiatus in order to design the new ERA using the new 2010 emission chassis from Mercedes.
The new 2012 ERA will be produced next spring and features increased GVWR of 11,030 pounds versus the 8,550 pound chassis available previously.
This allows us to increase storage and amenities within the motor home.
We are excited to get back into this market and judging from the response received from our dealers in Louisville, they are also excited to have the product offering in 2012 as well.
We continue to be an industry leader in retail sales.
We are very encouraged by the fact that our retail activity during the first quarter of fiscal 2010 was up over the prior year.
According to the statistical surveys, our combined Class A and Class C retail market share for US was 18.6% for the first ten months of calendar 2010.
We are particularly pleased with the progress we have made in the Class A diesel market segment with 14.7% market share year-to-date through October compared to 11.2% for the same period last year.
We are disappointed with our Class C market share with calendar year-to-date share of 17.7% which has been negatively impacted by a greater volume of rental orders this year as well as more compatibly-priced products within the industry.
In spite of our rental business doubling this year compared to last, we did not capture our normal share of this increased market.
Even though we are disappointed that we have lost share, we felt it more important to make the conscious decision not to sacrifice quality or profit margins in the C-body market segment.
Although encouraged by the 19.4 % C-body market share we were able to achieve in October we will however continue to review all areas of this product in an effort to improve going forward.
In Canada, Winnebago Industries Class A and Class C combined market share has shown significant growth with 17.1% market share for the first nine months of calendar 2010 compared to 9.4% for the same period of calendar year 2009.
Even though our dealer inventories are higher than they were last year, we believe that they are reasonable in relation to current retail demand.
More importantly, we have seen important -- our significant improvement in the aging of our product on our dealers' lots compared to last year at this time.
And as a result, we have provided less retail promotional incentives during the quarter.
As noted in our earnings release, we have a tough comp in regards to sales order backlog year-over-year as dealer restocking didn't occur until our second fiscal quarter of 2010.
In addition to that dynamic, our backlog this year was also impacted by the timing of certain rental orders.
There were orders from some key accounts included in last year's first quarter backlog which were not yet finalized this year at our first quarter end.
We met with a couple of large lending institutions during the recent Louisville RV Show and they indicated they are loosening their financing requirements.
That should help drive additional business which is extremely good news going forward.
In spite of the fact that we are entering what is traditionally the slowest quarter for motor home sales, I am optimistic consumer confidence will continue to rise albeit slowly throughout calendar 2011 and we will continue to see improvement in the recreation vehicle market.
As we announced earlier this year, we did sign a letter of intent with SunnyBrook Manufacturing in an effort to bring them into the Winnebago Industries' family and allow us to diversify into the total portion of our industry.
We are excited about the possibilities of such an arrangement and we continue to work with SunnyBrook management in an effort to complete this transaction and hope to have an announcement shortly.
But at this time, we have nothing to report.
With that, I will now to the call over to Sarah for the financial review .
- VP and CFO
Thank you Bob.
I will now review the financial performance of the Company's first quarter of fiscal 2011.
Revenues for the first quarter were $123.7 million of 52.7% increase from the first quarter of fiscal 2010.
This was primarily a result of an increase in our motor home deliveries of 321 units or 40.4%.
Our average selling price increased 9.1% for the first quarter as compared to last year.
This increase was primarily a function of a shift in our sales mix to more higher priced products and to a lesser extent due to reduction of product discounts offered at the wholesale level.
We saw continued improvement from our retail promotional standpoint as well similar to the trend we experienced in the past quarters, as a retail allowances decreased 2.6% of the percentage of net revenues when compared to last year.
As a result of these positive factors, our gross profit margin for the quarter was 9.1% compared to 0.6% in the same quarter of last year.
We ended our quarter with dealer inventory of 2,066 units which has continued to remain at a consistent level since February of 2010.
As for the past three quarters, our dealers had retailed the same volume of units that we have shipped.
Our operating expenses were $227,000 less than last year.
This primarily due to an offsetting gain of $644,000 from the sale of our Charles City manufacturing facility that occurred during the quarter.
We recorded a tax expense of $1.3 million in our first quarter which resulted in an effective tax rate of 25.4%.
This effective tax rate considers the benefit from a tax loss on the sale of Charles City as our tax basis on the property was much higher than our book basis.
We ended the first quarter of fiscal 211 with $81.2 million in cash, significant inflows of cash during the first quarter consisted of net income of $3.8 million, net proceeds from the sales of Charles City of $3.7 million and auction rate security redemptions at par of $1.2 million.
Additionally, $5.1 million -- excuse me, $5.3 million of auction rate security redemptions at par have occurred subsequent to quarter end and also presented as short-term investments on the balance sheet as of November 27, 2010.
I will now turn the call over to the operator for the question and answer portion of our call.
Operator
Thank you.
(Operator Instructions) Thank you.
Our first question comes from the line of Kathryn Thompson with Thompson Research Group.
Please proceed with your question.
- Analyst
Hi.
Thanks for taking my question today.
To start off, what is current capacity utilization versus what was in the first quarter?
- Chairman, CEO and President
Kathryn, I think -- I don't know if I got last year's at this time.
I think -- this year I can tell you it was 45%.
Last -- was that last year?
- VP and CFO
Sequentially it is very similar to where we were in the fourth quarter.
However, significantly up where we were a year ago at this time because in October we migrated on our assembly production to operating all three lines and that did not happen until mid-October.
- Analyst
Okay.
Would you say you're operating at a similar level right now?
- VP and CFO
We are operating at a consistent level.
Yes, as we have been in our first quarter and fourth quarter.
- Chairman, CEO and President
If I remember, Kathryn, we can get the numbers back to you.
I just don't have it handy here but if I remember right we were somewhere in that 35% range capacity a year ago at this time.
- Analyst
Okay, great.
Focusing on the Louisville shift, how is the order flow out of Louisville this year versus last year?
- Chairman, CEO and President
We don't really spend a lot of time on the number of orders that we get.
Because, if we are looking at Louisville Show as our main area that we get orders.
I've got to ask my sales guys, what we are doing the rest of the year.
Overall, we were pretty pleased with what we came out of the Louisville.
Primarily, I was ecstatic over the traffic that we saw in our display, especially the first day.
From the time that we opened until the time we closed, it was a steady stream of traffic.
We heard a lot of good reports on how our product looked.
As I mentioned, in the prepared remarks, the interest that we had in our ERA product, our Class B that (inaudible) we took our hiatus for 2011.
To bring that back on a heavier chassis that allows us more cargo carrying capacity weight, a few more amenities, a totally redesigned exterior to the product.
We heard a lot of positive out of that from our dealers and so we are pretty excited about how the overall product stacked up in total.
That is coming off probably in 2010 where we had redesigned or refurbished about 65% of our product line and followed up in 2011 with about 45%.
Our products stood tall at the Louisville show.
- Analyst
Tell us about commodity prices going forward.
It seems some increases in certain key raw materials, copper being a good example.
Steel, another.
How are you -- how are commodity prices right now?
How are you managing going forward with the potential increase and how does it compare to last year?
- VP and CFO
When you look at our metals spend which is where we -- definitely you can see some volatility.
20%, approximately of our materials spend you can contribute to aluminum, steel and copper.
So, the volatility there is always a challenge.
You can see in recent months, up and down activity and on that front, especially in regards to steel.
This is a dynamic that we always are considering when we are looking at our pricing in regards to the next model year or, if -- we need to do anything in the middle of a model year.
At this point, we are just --this is something that you have to closely monitor and understand the impact.
It is manageable where we are at it today.
- Analyst
And just assuming mid-quarter, there was a sharp increase -- is that something that you would immediately have a price increase to pass on the burden of the increased cost?
- VP and CFO
It had model year -- mid-model year price increased in the past.
We have not had one this current model year.
But, it is something that we have done.
We have to really look at everything in total.
But, at this point we have not having a mid-year model price increase.
- Analyst
Also in terms of days off.
How many days off do you anticipate taking in the season slowdown at the end of December and early January and how does this compare to last year?
- Chairman, CEO and President
Last year wasn't as bad.
We took -- we had some down days scheduled but we took them out of schedule as we've ramped up.
This year, fortunately it is basically about the same.
We are looking at the four days of the Christmas week.
We'll be down that week which is real normal.
Other than that, we've got production scheduled.
I think there is one other -- when we come back from the New Year's week, that first week back in January, that will be a four-day week.
That is a very typical normal holiday shutdown period for us.
- VP and CFO
And we also perform a physical observation at the end of January which is typical for us at our second quarter.
- Chairman, CEO and President
Other than those, which are planned for and typically planned for every year.
There is no other downtime that is scheduled right now.
- Analyst
You are not taking more downtime off this year versus last year because last year you had tremendous demand?
- Chairman, CEO and President
Exactly.
- Analyst
Okay.
I will get back in the queue.
Thank you very much.
- Chairman, CEO and President
Thanks Kathryn.
Operator
Thank you ladies and gentlemen.
Our next question comes from the line of Craig Kennison with Robert W.
Baird.
Please proceed with your question.
- Analyst
Good morning and thanks for taking my questions.
- VP and CFO
Morning.
- Analyst
Good morning.
Bob, you mentioned using your credit.
Can you just elaborate on how that has manifested itself, whether a wholesale or retail side?
How it actually you will see that on the retail side and whether that is a lower rates or different loan to value ratio, et cetera?
- Chairman, CEO and President
Yes.
We met with several of the lending institutions down in Louisville.
We have seen all along, probably for the last quarter that the lending criteria has loosened somewhat.
They validated that.
We have seen FICO scores not being quite so high.
On the retail side, there are going to be some down payments but that is going to be the new norm.
I think that's the other side of the equation I think has helped.
I think as we have come out of the recession, I think the retail customers have understood that there is a new set of criteria that has to be lived by now.
They include down payments, the amount that they can loan against the value of product is going to be limited.
They are going to have to prove that what they say they make, that is what they really do make.
So, which is a novel idea because that is basically what we did before got into this mess in 2004.
As I think as long as we continue to do that or the lending institutions continue to do that I think it is going to be healthier for this industry long-term.
As we met -- we are seeing some positives out of that.
I know that our retail, Company-wide, is up from last year at this time which I think part of that is due to the fact that the lending has eased slightly.
But I think even more encouraging, when we met with these lenders down in Louisville.
Without fail, every one of them told us that they were going to open up some of the lending requirements and see more of an ease.
I think going forward, it appears there is going to be more competitive environment in the lending part of the business.
I think that is going to be healthy and beneficial to both dealers and manufacturers alike.
- Analyst
That's quite helpful.
A follow-up question on that trade-in market, do you have a sense for what percentage of your new sales at the dealer level are based or financed in part with a trade-in?
- VP and CFO
No.
We pull our consumers that purchase and we know that about two-thirds of our customers have owned another product before.
Either motor home or (inaudible) so that's a large percentage of the transactions that we have data on but it doesn't go into the details on the financing side more specifically.
This is a little bit of an old stat too, but the industry had done a study on the RV industry back in 2005 and at that point, there were four used transactions for every one new.
So it was a much more sizable amount of volume flowing on that front.
On just specifically saying how many of our consumers are trading in, it is hard to give that exact number.
- Analyst
As a related question, do you have any sense for how used values are today relative to maybe at the bottom of the market?
- Chairman, CEO and President
We are hearing from the lending companies that the used values are starting to go up.
Much better than what they were when there was so much depressed product out in the marketplace.
We've heard that from our dealers as well that the used book values are up.
I don't know if I want to call them normal but they are up considerably over the worst of times we have seen over the last three years.
- Analyst
That's helpful.
Sarah, on the tax rate I'm not sure if I heard you call out your expectations for taxes going forward but it was I think 25% this quarter.
What should we look for going forward?
- VP and CFO
Based on our best information today and that is what we are looking at our annual rate to be.
- Analyst
Great, that's helpful.
I will get back into the queue.
Thank you.
- Chairman, CEO and President
Thanks.
Operator
Thank you ladies and gentlemen.
Our next question comes from the line of Greg Badishkanian with Citi.
Please proceed with your question.
- Analyst
Great, thanks.
The first question just on promotions.
What are you seeing out there on the motor home, A and the C?
Is it getting a little bit less promotional and how would you expect that to play out in the next quarter or two?
- Chairman, CEO and President
I think overall we have seen pretty substantial decline in promotional activities.
Although, I will say, I think it might be more case specific.
We have heard examples out in the industry that some of our competitors are discounting a little bit more than others.
But I think overall, the general statement can say, from the worst of times, especially, discounting is down considerably.
- Analyst
Great.
Good, do you have a more updated breakeven assumptions in terms of what you think that level is?
- VP and CFO
We have a consistent track record now of -- a shipment delivery in the range of that 1,100 to 1,200 units and generating gross profits.
Our breakeven definitely has migrated underneath that 1,000 units.
But trying to pin a number on that range, the dangers of that is there is one million variables to incorporate in there.
So, I don't have a more specific number to provide.
- Analyst
Yes.
Absolutely.
It is good that you're profitable now so it's not really even much of an issue.
In terms of backlogs, how do you see that playing out as we get into the spring, here, the next quarter or the following quarter?
Just give a comparison of last year and what you are seeing right now at retail?
- Chairman, CEO and President
I think as we stated both in the financial release and the prepared remarks, we think that going forward, dealer inventories are in really pretty good shape right now.
I think it's -- future growth is going to hinge on what retail activity does.
We feel good where we are at right now.
We think that the dealer inventories are at the proper levels given the retail activity that is out there.
We -- I think are more encouraged by the fact that the aging of the products in the dealers' lots are improved over what it was last year.
They've got fresh product on their lots.
I think right now, it's going to be -- any time you are in December, you're competing with the holiday season.
Historically, we all know that this is the toughest time of the season.
But I think that once we get by the holiday season and get into the show seasons of the early spring and head closer to the normal spring selling season, I am pretty optimistic that if we get a few more improvements in the general US economy, I think the outlook for 2011 is going to be pretty good.
- Analyst
Great.
Thank you.
- VP and CFO
Thank you.
Operator
Thank you ladies and gentlemen.
Our next question comes from the line of Bret Jordan with Avondale Partners.
Please proceed with your question.
- Analyst
Good morning.
Just one quick question is to clear up on the capacity utilization of 45% you said you are running.
Is that labor or plank capacity or a hybrid of both?
- Chairman, CEO and President
It is a hybrid of both but I think right now our biggest constraint will be staffing.
We are not having problems right now but again, we are only at 45%.
We said this for our many, many years going back in the past, if we have one constraint, it is probably the availability of labor.
So, we are keeping a very close eye on that and right now it is not an issue.
But the industry continues to grow, that is probably going to be one of the things that we have to address going forward.
- Analyst
Okay.
As far as (inaudible) input and chassis availability with the problems there?
- VP and CFO
Excuse me, you cut out there.
I did not quite hear that.
- Analyst
Chassis availability?
- VP and CFO
We don't have any issues with chassis availability at this time.
- Analyst
Great and then just one last question on pricing.
Is the differential (inaudible) in volumes might have been delayed or is it increasing competition for the rental orders this year?
- VP and CFO
I think 2010, from a rental standpoint was a pretty unusual year when you look at almost no rental products having been sold in the prior year.
I think we had a little bit of unusual dynamic in 2010 associated with that.
There is a pricing ladder within the C categories just like there is in A that goes from low prices up to some higher price points.
There is still a wide range of offerings there.
- Analyst
Okay.
One last question.
Are you seeing more competition on the trailer side?
One of your competitors reported as we had talked about price competition and some discounting that you are saying it is relatively comparable discounting.
Is there less competitive pricing on motor homes than there is in trailers in this environment?
- Chairman, CEO and President
I think I can't substantiate this with facts.
It's just what I hear around the industry.
Is that there seems are seems to be more discounting right now with (inaudible) than it does with motorized.
I think there might have been some over-building going on in the late fall.
And, I think there's some efforts to try to get the inventories back in line.
So, but, we are not seeing that in the motorized segment.
- Analyst
Okay, great.
Thank you.
Operator
Thank you ladies and gentlemen.
Our next question comes from the line of Scott Stember from Sidoti & Co.
Please proceed with your question.
- Analyst
Good morning.
- VP and CFO
Good morning.
- Analyst
Sarah, do you have the ASP information for this year and last year?
- VP and CFO
Yes.
Class A gas, $89,630 compared to $90.158 last year.
Class A diesel was $170,362 as compared to $149, 660 last year.
Our combined Class A was $122,703 versus $115,966.
From a Class C standpoint, this year, $75, 916 versus $73, 520.
All combined A and C was $103,593 versus $97,584.
- Analyst
Got you.
Could we just talk about what you are hearing from dealers as we head into the slower months now?
Obviously, it is a slower time of year and dealers have been more cautious with their inventory that they're taking in.
What you are hearing?
What you are seeing?
And how does that really work out for the second quarter?
- Chairman, CEO and President
Well, I think just coming back from the Louisville show, we had a good cross-section of dealers down there.
I think, I would say, cautiously optimistic.
I think they saw some uptick in businesses last year.
I think most of them are cautiously optimistic that we will see continued growth in 2011.
And, with what we have heard on extending the Bush tax legislation, I think that's a positive.
And, I don't think there is anyone in the industry that is turning cartwheels yet saying, we are back to normal times.
I think we all realize that -- we are just now starting to claw out of this what is arguably one of the toughest recessions that this industry has seen.
Like we have always said, we think that this is going to be a longer, slower road to recovery.
I think the dealers have that same perspective.
The one thing that coming out of this, I think between manufacturers that has survived and dealers that have survived, and the they have done a much better job of running their business, taking the excess costs out of it and I think just as we are reporting this quarter.
The profits are starting to show because of all of that hard work and effort.
The dealers are no different.
I think they have done the same thing.
I think that overall coming out of Louisville environment, I think everybody is pretty upbeat about 2011 but not getting carried away with it.
- Analyst
Great.
On a sequential basis from a production standpoint.
How would you characterize what you expect the second quarter versus the first quarter?
- VP and CFO
We don't provide forward-looking guidance on what the second quarter will hold.
So, I don't know if we can really answer that question for you, Scott.
- Analyst
Got you.
All right.
That's all I have.
Thank you.
- VP and CFO
Thank you.
Operator
Thank you ladies and gentlemen.
Our next question comes from the line of David Whiston with Morningstar.
Please proceed with your question.
- Analyst
Good morning everyone.
- Chairman, CEO and President
Good morning.
- Analyst
Just two questions, one for Sarah and one for Bob.
On the balance sheet, what are the securities that make up the short-term investment balance?
- VP and CFO
Auction rate securities that were redeemed, subsequent to quarter-end here in December.
So, that has already been now included within cash and cash equivalents, since that point in time and they were redeemed at par.
- Analyst
Okay, great.
For bob, once sunnybrook gets off your radar screen, strategically, long-term here, what is the plan on acquisitions.
Are you looking to be a more acquisitive company going forward because traditionally you are not.
- Chairman, CEO and President
We have been pretty conservative on that.
I think coming out of this recession, I think we have learned that -- we need to look at spreading our wings a little bit.
And have -- not have all of our eggs in one basket.
Our Board has directed us that they want us to look more at this whether that be taking advantage of what we have for capabilities within our very vertically integrated corporation in Forest City.
Or the possibility of acquisition and that is why we have started working on this SunnyBrook project.
We named Randy Potts as Senior Vice President of Strategic Planning about one year ago.
As a result of this, the SunnyBrook proposition came out of it.
There are other things that we are looking at but it is way, way too early even to discuss those.
But we are going to continue to look at different things as it does make sense, for what Winnebago and its shareholders, we will dig into them.
- Analyst
Okay, and finally, what is the priority between making more acquisitions and resuming the dividend?
- Chairman, CEO and President
Right now I would say that we would like to grow.
That is probably a little higher priority right now than dividends.
We would like to grow Winnebago Industries and make it a stronger force going forward.
So, it is a little early to tell yet.
Like I said, we are now into our third quarterly profit -- third consecutive quarterly profit, but fair question.
But, right now I would give the edge to growth.
- Analyst
Okay, thank you.
That's all I had.
Operator
Thank you.
Ladies and gentlemen, our next question comes from the line out Barry Vogel with Barry Vogel & Associates.
Please proceed with your question.
- Analyst
Good morning ladies and gentlemen.
- Chairman, CEO and President
Good morning Barry.
- Analyst
Sarah I have a couple of questions first.
Can you tell me if the lending -- does the floorplan lenders are tightening up on curtailments versus historically?
That is the first question.
- VP and CFO
They have been for two years now.
They have been very disciplined in terms of curtailment and really made that migration in early part of 2009.
It was not probably feasible for all of the dealers to immediately comply with the cash flow situation they were at, at that juncture.
But as they became healthier, that discipline has been remained in place.
So, the dynamics definitely changed but it is not recent.
It has been a part of the last two years.
- Analyst
Okay, so would you say that the cost of that migration towards enforcing curtailments, or making them tighter, that if conditions were improving on a relative basis like in the past, you probably would have seen additional orders going into the winter and that other environment of the past -- a couple of years ago.
Do you think that's a correct statement?
- VP and CFO
I think that's fair.
I think our dealers are very cautious and more conservative today, more concentrated on turning inventory rather than having too much inventory that they are paying curtailments and interest on.
- Analyst
Okay, as far as your capital expenditures for the year.
I know you had -- you were using a couple of million dollars is that still the case?
- VP and CFO
Yes we are looking at annual spend in that $3 million range.
- Analyst
Okay.
And D&A $5.5 million?
- VP and CFO
Yes, that is very fair.
- Analyst
I have a question about inventories.
Your inventories hardly budged at the end of fourth quarter to the end of the first quarter and I know that sales were very similar in terms of the unit shipments.
Do you feel that you are handling inventory turns better than maybe in the past and that even if business improves as the year progressed, you would not have too much of an increase in inventory when the year was said and done?
- VP and CFO
Well, inventories have been a significant focus for us especially as we were going through the worst of the recession because we were able to convert a lot of the inventories into cash.
The business starts to grow beyond we are at this juncture.
I would expect inventories to grow.
I still look at some of the seasonality elements of our quarters and there's points in time where inventories are higher because of that dynamic.
But, we do plan to continue to maintain lower amounts of inventory than probably some of the best of our years in the past history with what we just have experienced.
There is probably a more of a disciplined approach on that front than four years ago, five years ago.
- Analyst
If business continues to improve seasonally but modestly as all indicated, your expectations, would you say a $20 million increase of inventory at year-end is a good estimate or do you think that is too pessimistic?
- VP and CFO
I think that is a high number.
- Analyst
So you think you can do better than that?
- VP and CFO
That is our plan.
- Analyst
Plan, so maybe what, $15 million?
- VP and CFO
Barry, I cannot comment on any further clarity on that statement.
- Analyst
Bob, I've a question for you.
I know you announced a letter of intent for potential acquisition, October 18.
I thought that was a little unusual announcement.
Based on other acquisitions that usually when there is an acquisition brewing, companies announce a deal.
So, I am wondering how did that came about, number one.
Why is it taking so long?
It's about two months from that announcement, to come to a conclusion on that acquisition?
- Chairman, CEO and President
First of all, letter of intent, which is highly unusual, I will agree with that.
One of the things we wanted to do was make it public that we are looking at not only for shareholders but for both employees at Winnebago and employees of SunnyBrook.
The rumors would have gotten out there anyway if we would've had Winnebago people in SunnyBrook and we wanted to be open and honest with all of the shareholders, employees alike.
That is why we took a very unusual approach at this.
As far as the time is taking, we said all along even when we sent off the letter of intent, news release, that we were hoping to have something able to announce at the first of the year.
We are still on track with that.
It may be taking longer than normally would, but, I think for a couple of reasons.
One is, we want to make sure that we are going into something that we can be successful at.
Number two, we are -- this is something new for us as well so we're going to walk before we run.
But it may be longer than what some people think but it is right on target to where we said we were going to be.
- Analyst
Thanks very much.
Keep up the great work.
- Chairman, CEO and President
Thank you Barry.
Operator
Thank you ladies and gentlemen.
Or next question comes from the line of David Cohen with Midwood Capital.
- Analyst
I just have one housekeeping question which is what were retail registrations in the quarter?
- VP and CFO
Well, statistical survey just released October yesterday, so, from an industry standpoint there's only two months of our fiscal quarter available.
But, as we mentioned in our pre-remarks, or retail is up in our first quarter as compared to last year.
If you are interested in our market share, we can definitely walk through where we broke out.
But, our quarter is a little bit ahead of where stat survey was released.
- Analyst
Right.
You guys have tended to provide that data point in your Q, right?
- VP and CFO
We will be releasing our Q next week.
- Analyst
Okay.
All right, thanks.
- VP and CFO
Thank you.
Operator
Thank you ladies and gentlemen.
Our next question comes the line of Scott Stember from Sidoti & Co.
Please proceed with your question.
- Analyst
I just have a follow-up question actually on the metal extrusion business.
Could you just talk about absolute dollars and what that was versus a year ago?
- VP and CFO
We don't break out that individually.
I can share that from a non-motor home revenue perspective which encompasses a couple of different categories and includes our extrusion business.
It was up about 6% as compared to the prior year same quarter.
- Analyst
Got you.
Thank you.
- VP and CFO
You're welcome.
Operator
Thank you ladies and gentlemen.
We have no further questions at this time and I would like to turn the floor over to management for any further closing remarks.
- Chairman, CEO and President
Thank you for joining us today on our call.
Again, we are extremely pleased with our results for the first quarter of fiscal 2011.
Our results to date speak volumes for the hard work of all of our employees.
We continue to emphasize that while these results were very positive, additional retail sales growth will be needed to drive growth going forward.
Long-term outlook for our industry remains very positive.
The RV lifestyle continues to be a lifestyle that is embraced by many Americans.
Campgrounds continue to be full.
And the RV lifestyle is a very attractive and viable alternative for consumers as they contemplate their other vacation and retirement choices.
We believe the economy will continue to improve and we are prepared to capitalize on the market growth through continued new product development.
I would like to thank everyone for joining Winnebago Industries conference call today and I look forward to talking with you again in March when we report our results for the second quarter of fiscal 2011.
Sarah, Sheila, and myself wish you the very best over the holiday season so thank you.
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's teleconference.
You may disconnect your lines at this time.
Thank you for your participation.