富國銀行 (WFC) 2026 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Welcome, and thank you for joining the Wells Fargo third-quarter 2026 earnings conference call.

歡迎各位，感謝您參加富國銀行 2026 年第三季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

(接線員指示)

Please note that today's call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. John Campbell, Director of Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin the conference.

請注意，今天的電話會議將被錄音。現在我想將電話交給投資人關係總監 John Campbell 先生。先生，您可以開始會議。

Good morning. Thank you for joining our call today by our CEO, Charlie Scharf and our CFO, Mike Santomassimo, will discuss third quarter results and answer your questions. This call is being recorded. Before we get started, I would like to remind you that our third quarter earnings materials, including the release, financial supplement and presentation deck are available on our website at wellsfargo.com.

各位早安。感謝您參加我們今天的電話會議；我們的執行長 Charlie Scharf 與財務長 Mike Santomassimo 將討論第三季業績並回答各位的問題。本次電話會議將被錄音。在開始之前，我想提醒各位，我們第三季財報相關資料（包括新聞稿、財務補充資料與簡報）已公布於我們的網站 wellsfargo.com。

I'd also like to caution you that we may make forward-looking statements during today's call that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from expectations are detailed in our SEC filings, including the Form 8-K filed today containing our earnings materials. Information about any non-GAAP financial measures referenced, including a reconciliation of those measures to GAAP measures, can also be found in our SEC filings and the earnings materials available on our website.

我也要提醒各位，我們在今天的電話會議中可能會發表前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受到風險與不確定性影響。可能導致實際結果與預期有重大差異的因素，已在我們向 SEC 提交的文件中詳細說明，包括今天提交的 Form 8-K（其中包含我們的財報資料）。關於所提及的任何非 GAAP 財務衡量指標之資訊（包括該等指標與 GAAP 指標的調節表），亦可在我們的 SEC 申報文件及網站上的財報資料中查閱。

I will now turn the call over to Charlie.

現在我把電話交給 Charlie。

Thanks, John. I'm going to provide some comments about our results and the momentum we see across all our businesses. I'll then turn the call over to Mike to review third quarter results in more detail before we take your questions.

謝謝你，John。我將先就我們的業績以及我們在各項業務中看到的動能發表一些評論。接著我會把電話交給 Mike，在我們進入問答之前，更詳細地回顧第三季業績。

Let me start with slide 2 of the presentation deck. Our third quarter results reflected broad-based growth, higher earnings and stronger returns. Earnings per share grew to $1.87 in the third quarter, up 13% from a year ago. Our ROTCE increased from 14.7% during the first nine months of 2025 to 16.2% during the same period this year and 16.3% this quarter. Revenue grew 2% versus the prior year, with growth across all our operating segments, partially offset by lower revenue from our venture capital investments as expected and lower lease income following the sale of our railcar leasing business in the first quarter.

我先從簡報第 2 頁開始。我們第三季的業績反映出廣泛的成長、更高的獲利以及更強的報酬率。第三季每股盈餘成長至 1.87 美元，較去年同期增加 13%。我們的 ROTCE（有形普通股權益報酬率）從 2025 年前九個月的 14.7% 提升至今年同期的 16.2%，本季為 16.3%。營收較去年成長 2%，所有營運部門均有成長；部分被我們創投投資的營收如預期下降，以及第一季出售鐵路車輛租賃業務後租賃收入降低所抵銷。

Wealth and Investment Management revenues grew 12%, Commercial Banking grew 6%, Consumer Banking and Lending grew 5%, and Corporate and Investment Banking grew 3% with 8% growth in banking, partially offset by modest declines in commercial real estate and markets. Markets was trending towards achieving higher revenue growth that was impacted by a slowdown in the last several weeks of the quarter. However, we still had strong results in equities with revenue increasing 21% from a year ago. Within banking, key areas of investments for us continued to see strong results. M&A revenues grew 30% and both equity capital markets and investment-grade underwriting fees grew 33% from a year ago.

財富與投資管理營收成長 12%，商業銀行成長 6%，消費金融與放款成長 5%，企業與投資銀行成長 3%；其中銀行業務成長 8%，但部分被商用不動產與市場業務的小幅下滑所抵銷。市場業務原本呈現朝向更高營收成長的趨勢，但在本季最後幾週因放緩而受到影響。然而，我們在股票業務仍有強勁表現，營收較去年同期增加 21%。在銀行業務方面，我們持續投入的關鍵領域仍呈現強勁成果。併購（M&A）營收成長 30%，而股票資本市場與投資級承銷費用均較去年同期成長 33%。

Expenses declined modestly from a year ago. As we have seen in other quarters, higher revenue-related expenses, up 15% were more than offset by a 4% decline in non-revenue-related expenses as we continue to invest while increasing efficiency. Headcount continued to decline, down 2% in the quarter, 8% year-over-year and down 30% from its second quarter 2020 peak and has decreased every quarter for the past six years. We generated strong growth in loans and deposits throughout 2026 with third quarter average loans and average deposits both up 11% from a year ago. This growth was broad-based with higher loan and deposit balances in both our commercial and consumer businesses.

費用較去年同期小幅下降。如同其他季度所見，與營收相關的費用增加 15%，但被非營收相關費用下降 4% 以上所抵銷；我們在持續投資的同時也提升效率。員工人數持續下降，本季減少 2%，年減 8%，較 2020 年第二季高峰下降 30%，且過去六年每一季都在下降。我們在 2026 年全年度的放款與存款均呈現強勁成長，第三季平均放款與平均存款皆較去年同期增加 11%。此成長相當廣泛，商業與消費業務的放款與存款餘額均有所提高。

Turning to slide 3. We're seeing good performance across each of our businesses. Let me start with Consumer Banking and lending. Growing consumer primary checking accounts is a key indicator of our progress, and this quarter, we continued to see momentum. We achieved our 14th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth as stronger branch and digital activity, improved product offerings and continued investments in marketing have helped drive increased account openings. Our segmented approach to serving affluent customers is also producing strong results.

接著看第 3 頁。我們看到各項業務均有良好表現。我先從消費金融與放款開始。提升消費者主要支票帳戶的成長是衡量我們進展的關鍵指標，而本季我們持續看到動能。我們已連續第 14 個季度達成年增，較強的分行與數位活動、更佳的產品供給，以及持續投入行銷，均有助於帶動開戶數增加。我們以分眾方式服務高資產客群的策略也帶來強勁成果。

Premier Client assets were up 10% from a year ago. We continue to invest in talent with double-digit growth in Premier bankers and financial advisers year-over-year. We've been investing in business banking, including adding over 130 business bankers over the past year. We are seeing the initial benefits in our results, including checking count openings up 9% and credit cards opening 61% from a year ago. Importantly, we remain disciplined on credit with growth focused primarily on customers with deep existing relationships.

Premier Client 客戶資產較去年同期增加 10%。我們持續投資人才，Premier 銀行家與理財顧問人數年增均達雙位數。我們也持續投入小型企業銀行業務，包括過去一年新增超過 130 位企業銀行家。我們已在業績中看到初步效益，包括支票帳戶開戶數年增 9%，信用卡開卡數較去年同期增加 61%。重要的是，我們在信用風險上仍維持紀律，成長主要聚焦於與我們已有深厚往來關係的客戶。

Credit card revenue increased from both a year ago and the second quarter with growth in balances and purchase volume. We opened more than 660,000 new accounts in the third quarter. We again saw strong account openings in our branch channel, which has allowed us to reduce our reliance on third-party channels.

信用卡營收較去年同期與第二季均有所增加，主要來自餘額與刷卡消費金額成長。第三季我們新開立超過 66 萬個帳戶。我們在分行通路再次看到強勁的開戶表現，使我們得以降低對第三方通路的依賴。

Auto originations grew 15% from a year ago and average balances were up 31%. While we're growing our lending businesses and our customer base is still strong, our underwriting criteria recognize that at some point, consumer credit conditions will weaken. To be clear, we do not see signs of this yet, but we know that cycles are inevitable. Turning to Wealth and Investment Management. Wealth and Investment Management client assets grew 11% from a year ago to $2.5 trillion. Average loan balances increased 16% from a year ago. We identified this as a significant opportunity several years ago and have since enhanced our products and processes to better serve clients and scale the portfolio.

汽車貸款承作量較去年同期成長 15%，平均餘額增加 31%。雖然我們的放款業務與客戶基礎仍在成長且表現穩健，但我們的授信標準也認知到，在某個時間點消費者信用環境將會轉弱。需要說明的是，我們目前尚未看到這方面的跡象，但我們知道景氣循環無可避免。接著談財富與投資管理。財富與投資管理客戶資產較去年同期成長 11%，達 2.5 兆美元。平均放款餘額較去年同期增加 16%。我們在數年前即將此視為重大機會，並自此強化產品與流程，以更好地服務客戶並擴大投資組合規模。

We have made significant investments in our technology platforms and expanded investment capabilities to provide advisers with a stronger platform to serve clients. These investments include a new portfolio analysis and client proposal tools for advisers leveraging Aladdin Wealth technology from BlackRock. We have also increased the number of alternative product offerings in our platform by over 30% this year. In addition, we just launched an AI-powered tool for our financial advisers that streamlines routine work and helps them access the information they need to better serve clients. This is the first of several capabilities planned as part of our broader AI strategy in Wealth and Investment Management.

我們已在科技平台進行重大投資，並擴充投資能力，為理財顧問提供更強大的平台以服務客戶。這些投資包括導入新的投資組合分析與客戶提案工具，供理財顧問運用貝萊德（BlackRock）的 Aladdin Wealth 技術。今年我們也將平台上的另類投資產品供給數量提高了 30% 以上。此外，我們剛為理財顧問推出一項 AI 驅動工具，可簡化例行工作並協助他們取得所需資訊，以更好地服務客戶。這是我們在財富與投資管理更廣泛 AI 策略中規劃的多項能力之一。

Turning to Corporate Investment Banking. In our banking business, revenue grew 8% from a year ago and year-to-date increased 13%. The hiring we've done in investment banking has strengthened our client coverage model and improved our ability to compete, which you can see from our improved market share, including equity capital market share increasing 84 basis points to 3.9% and increasing our rank in announced US M&A volume to number 6, up from 9 a year ago.

接著談企業與投資銀行。在我們的銀行業務中，營收較去年同期成長 8%，年初至今增加 13%。我們在投資銀行所進行的招募強化了客戶覆蓋模式並提升競爭能力，從我們改善的市占率即可看出，包括股票資本市場市占率增加 84 個基點至 3.9%，以及我們在已公告的美國併購（M&A）交易量排名提升至第 6 名，較一年前的第 9 名上升。

It is important to note that while we're building our investment banking business, and it benefits from strong market environments, its size is still relatively small in the context of the rest of the company. We don't expect it to drive outsized returns in any one period, but it has contributed and should continue to contribute to higher returns over time. Markets revenue was down modestly from a year ago. Market conditions were more difficult than prior quarters, but we continue to see the benefits of our strategic investments.

需要強調的是，雖然我們正在打造投資銀行業務，且其受惠於強勁的市場環境，但相較於公司其他業務，其規模仍相對較小。我們不預期它在任何單一期間帶來過度突出的報酬，但它已經有所貢獻，並應在時間推移下持續推動更高的報酬。市場業務營收較去年同期小幅下降。市場環境較前幾季更具挑戰，但我們仍持續看到策略性投資所帶來的效益。

Year-to-date, markets revenues increased 14% versus last year. Finally, let me highlight Commercial Banking, where our client acquisition strategy helped to drive strong balance sheet growth. Average loans increased 10% from a year ago, reflecting our continued success in attracting new clients and deepening existing relationships supported by our investment in additional bankers.

年初至今，市場業務收入較去年增加14%。最後，我想強調商業銀行業務，我們的客戶獲取策略有助於推動資產負債表的強勁成長。平均貸款較一年前增加10%，反映出我們在吸引新客戶並深化既有關係方面持續取得成功，這也得益於我們對增聘銀行家所做的投資。

Average deposits increased 16% from a year ago, reflecting our deposit gathering initiatives, which have attracted deposits from both new and existing clients even as we've maintained our pricing discipline. We also continue to capture a larger share of our commercial banking clients investment banking and markets activities with gross fees 25% higher than a year ago.

平均存款較一年前增加16%，反映出我們的存款募集計畫；即使我們維持定價紀律，這些計畫仍吸引了新舊客戶的存款。我們也持續在商業銀行客戶的投資銀行與市場活動中取得更高的市占率，總費用較一年前高出25%。

These results highlight the benefits of the investments we've made in our Commercial Banking franchise, which is driving client growth and increasing the diversity of our revenue base. More broadly, we are accelerating our investments in both traditional digital payments and traditional and digital payment solutions for consumers and businesses. We believe tokenized deposits can deliver important benefits for the businesses we serve. Last month, we launched tokenized deposits and our proprietary blockchain platform, providing corporate and commercial clients with a new way to move money more efficiently.

這些結果凸顯了我們對商業銀行特許經營所做投資的效益，該業務正推動客戶成長並提升我們收入基礎的多元性。更廣泛而言，我們正在加速投資於傳統與數位支付，以及面向消費者與企業的傳統與數位支付解決方案。我們相信代幣化存款能為我們服務的企業帶來重要效益。上個月，我們推出了代幣化存款以及自有的區塊鏈平台，為企業與商業客戶提供一種更高效率的資金移轉新方式。

As we expand the platform, clients will be able to move funds 24 hours a day, 7 days a week across accounts and borders without changing how they bank with us. Use cases in the US for stable coins remain unclear but we're building solutions to be prepared as opportunities potentially unfold.

隨著我們擴展該平台，客戶將能在不改變其與我們往來方式的情況下，全天候（每週7天、每天24小時）跨帳戶與跨境移轉資金。在美國，穩定幣的使用情境仍不明朗，但我們正在建置解決方案，以便在潛在機會展開時做好準備。

We, along with 20 other international financial institutions, are establishing a new company to issue stable coins beginning in the first half of 2027. The product will support wholesale, institutional and retail use cases, providing clients with a trusted form of digital money that can improve cross-border payments and facilitate digital asset settlements. We're devoting significant management time and resources to building AI capabilities and drive value. The work here is multi-dimensioned. Internally, we're using it to write code faster.

我們與另外20家國際金融機構正共同成立一家新公司，計畫自2027年上半年開始發行穩定幣。該產品將支援批發、機構與零售等使用情境，為客戶提供可信賴的數位貨幣形式，以改善跨境支付並促進數位資產結算。我們正投入大量管理時間與資源來建置AI能力並創造價值。這項工作是多面向的。在內部，我們用它來更快地撰寫程式碼。

Over the past year, this has gone from being a tool to assist programmers to now being able to use autonomous agents when appropriate. To increase capacity and revenue from our branches, to launch marketing campaigns faster to help identify as well as write in test code to close previously unknown cyber vulnerabilities and to improve and simplify risk management processes.

在過去一年中，它已從協助程式設計師的工具，發展到在適當情況下可使用自主代理（autonomous agents）。以提升分行的產能與收入、更快推出行銷活動、協助識別並撰寫測試程式碼以修補先前未知的資安弱點，以及改善並簡化風險管理流程。

Externally, we're using it to improve the customer experience, including helping customers complete common banking tasks such as making payments, replacing cards and getting insights into spending and to accelerate response times, for underwriting decisions and customer complaints. We will also evaluate how third-party models and agents can provide value-added capabilities to our clients while at the same time considering the potential risk these tools can introduce for both our clients and Wells Fargo.

在外部，我們用它來改善客戶體驗，包括協助客戶完成常見的銀行作業，例如付款、補發卡片、取得消費洞察，並加速回應時間，用於核保決策與客訴處理。我們也將評估第三方模型與代理如何為客戶提供加值能力，同時也會考量這些工具可能為客戶與富國銀行帶來的潛在風險。

Our focus was recently recognized in the evident AI index for banks, which independently tracks AI maturity across the world's leading banks. We increased our ranking to #5 globally, and ranked #3 in the US based upon their evaluation of 4 core pillars, including talent, innovation, leadership and transparency. We're excited by the opportunities AI presents for our clients at our company, and we're taking a disciplined approach to managing risk.

我們的聚焦近期也在Evident AI銀行指數中獲得肯定；該指數獨立追蹤全球領先銀行的AI成熟度。依其對四大核心支柱（包括人才、創新、領導力與透明度）的評估，我們的全球排名提升至第5名，並在美國排名第3名。我們對AI為客戶與公司帶來的機會感到振奮，同時也以嚴謹的方式管理風險。

Looking externally, US economic growth continues to be strong. While uncertainty persists due to sticky inflation, the conflict in the Middle East, persistent fiscal deficits and volatile energy markets, strong labor markets and wage growth, business investment, productivity investments, infrastructure spending and a historic wave of technology-related capital expenditures have proven more powerful than many predicted.

從外部環境來看，美國經濟成長仍然強勁。儘管黏性通膨、中東衝突、持續的財政赤字以及波動的能源市場帶來不確定性，但強勁的勞動市場與薪資成長、企業投資、生產力投資、基礎建設支出，以及一波歷史性的科技相關資本支出，已證明其力量超過許多人的預期。

As a result, real GDP growth continues to track well with the third quarter shaping up to be strong. The consumer remains one of the economy's most important sources of resilience though higher prices continue to weigh on consumer sentiment. Let me highlight our customer trends. Consumer spending remains strong. Debit card spending increased 8% from a year ago, with broad-based growth across categories, accelerating from the 5% growth rate we saw in the third quarter last year.

因此，實質GDP成長仍維持良好走勢，第三季看來將表現強勁。消費者仍是經濟韌性最重要的來源之一，儘管較高的價格仍持續壓抑消費者信心。我想強調我們的客戶趨勢。消費支出仍然強勁。簽帳金融卡支出較一年前增加8%，各類別皆呈現廣泛成長，且較去年第三季我們看到的5%成長率進一步加速。

Credit card spending was up 12% from a year ago. Our growth has been amongst the highest in the industry, driven by strong new account growth. At the same time, consumer credit remains strong with our charge-off ratio down from both the second quarter and a year ago, and early-stage delinquencies at historically low levels.

信用卡支出較一年前增加12%。我們的成長率位居業界前段，主要由強勁的新開戶成長所帶動。同時，消費者信用狀況仍然穩健；我們的核銷比率較第二季及一年前皆下降，且早期逾期率處於歷史低位。

High income households continue to benefit from strong asset prices, substantial home equity and stable labor income. And while lower income households remain more sensitive to financing costs, inflation and higher living and fuel expenses, they appear to be stable. Corporate America also continues to demonstrate strength. Our corporate and commercial customers remain in good shape. Loan demand continues and credit remains strong with only 18 basis points of losses in the third quarter and non-accrual loans down from both the second quarter and a year ago.

高收入家庭持續受惠於強勁的資產價格、可觀的房屋淨值以及穩定的勞動收入。而低收入家庭雖然對融資成本、通膨以及較高的生活與燃料支出更為敏感，但看起來仍保持穩定。美國企業界也持續展現韌性。我們的企業與商業客戶狀況仍然良好。貸款需求持續，信用表現仍然穩健；第三季損失僅18個基點，且不計息貸款較第二季及一年前皆下降。

While our data is strong, we are conscious of the risks. Inflation and higher interest rates continue to be headwinds and the longer they persist, the more pressure they can place on both consumers and commercial clients. While markets have been strong and unexpected or significant movement could filter through the broader economy. And the AI investment cycle has become a complicated macroeconomic force in its own right. Demand for semiconductors, networking equipment, power generation, data center infrastructure, cooling systems, storage, cybersecurity and advanced manufacturing equipment continued to surge.

儘管我們的數據表現強勁，我們仍留意相關風險。通膨與較高利率仍是逆風，且持續時間越久，對消費者與商業客戶造成的壓力就可能越大。雖然市場表現強勁，但任何意外或顯著的波動都可能傳導至更廣泛的經濟。此外，AI投資循環本身也已成為一股複雜的總體經濟力量。對半導體、網路設備、發電、資料中心基礎設施、冷卻系統、儲存、資安以及先進製造設備的需求持續激增。

The scale of investment here increasingly resembles prior infrastructure booms, creating both significant opportunities, but also risks given the significant leverage used to finance the build-out and the upward pressure on prices in selected industries and supply chains.

此處投資規模愈來愈像過去的基礎建設榮景，帶來重大機會，但也伴隨風險，原因在於用於支應建置的槓桿相當可觀，並對特定產業與供應鏈的價格造成上行壓力。

Having said this, the strength of the economy and the positive forces from these investments have thus far outweighed the potential downside. Before I conclude, I want to thank Derek Flowers, our Chief Risk Officer, for his leadership in strengthening our risk and control framework and culture to position Wells Fargo for continued growth.

話雖如此，迄今為止，經濟的強勁表現以及這些投資帶來的正向力量，仍然大於潛在下行風險。在我結束之前，我要感謝我們的首席風險長Derek Flowers，在強化我們的風險與控制框架及文化方面展現的領導力，使富國銀行得以為持續成長做好定位。

As we announced last month, Derek plans to retire early next year, and he will work closely with Scott Powell, our Chief Operating Officer, to support a smooth transition when Scott assumes the Chief Risk Officer role.

如同我們上月宣布的，Derek計畫於明年初提前退休；在Scott Powell（我們的營運長）接任首席風險長職務時，Derek將與Scott密切合作，以支持順利交接。

As I close, I'll leave you with a few final thoughts. Our progress towards building a growing, high returning company continues. Our ROTCE continues to increase and is getting closer to our 17% to 18% target. Though timing is influenced by markets and the credit environment. We are confident this trajectory can continue, and ultimately, our targets should be higher. Like all management teams, we are balancing many things. growth, risk, changing interest rate expectations, inflation and AI opportunities, just to name a few.

在我結語時，我想留下幾點最後的想法。我們在打造一家成長且高回報公司的進展仍在持續。我們的ROTCE持續提升，並逐步接近我們17%至18%的目標。不過，達成時點會受到市場與信用環境影響。我們有信心這一軌跡能持續，且最終我們的目標應該更高。如同所有管理團隊，我們需要在多項因素間取得平衡。成長、風險、利率預期變化、通膨與AI機會等，僅舉幾例。

However, our North Star remains the same: invest in our people, products, technology and marketing for the long term, but show consistent progress in growing revenue and returns in the short term, without taking outsized risks or growing in ways that is not consistent with our long-term vision for Wells Fargo.

然而，我們的北極星始終不變：長期投資於我們的人才、產品、科技與行銷，同時在短期內展現收入與回報成長的持續進展，不承擔過度風險，也不以不符合富國銀行長期願景的方式成長。

I'll now turn the call over to Mike.

我現在把電話會議交給Mike。

Thank you, Charlie, and good morning, everyone. Since Charlie already covered the key drivers behind our financial performance and the business highlights, I'll begin my remarks on slide 4. Our third quarter results demonstrated the progress we've made in strengthening the company's financial performance strong balance sheet growth, continued revenue growth, disciplined expense management and solid credit performance drove another quarter of double-digit EPS growth and continued improvement in returns year-over-year.

謝謝你，Charlie，各位早安。由於Charlie已經說明了我們財務表現背後的關鍵驅動因素以及業務亮點，我將從第4頁投影片開始我的發言。我們第三季的結果展現了我們在強化公司財務表現方面所取得的進展：強勁的資產負債表成長、持續的營收成長、嚴謹的費用管理以及穩健的信用表現，推動每股盈餘（EPS）再度實現雙位數成長，並使回報率相較去年同期持續改善。

Turning to slide 6. Net interest income increased $567 million or 5% from a year ago and increased 2% from the second quarter. The growth in the second quarter was driven by higher loan and investment securities balances, one additional day in the quarter fixed rate asset repricing as well as the impact of higher rates on floating rate assets. The net interest margin was stable from the second quarter as the benefits of loan growth and higher yields in almost all categories of interest-earning assets, including the impact of fixed asset repricing were offset by continued growth in interest-bearing deposits.

接著看第 6 張投影片。淨利息收入較去年同期增加 5%，增加 5.67 億美元，並較第二季增加 2%。第二季的成長主要由較高的貸款與投資證券餘額、該季多出一天、固定利率資產的重定價，以及較高利率對浮動利率資產的影響所帶動。淨利息收益率較第二季持平，因為貸款成長與幾乎所有類別的生息資產（包含固定資產重定價的影響）收益率上升的效益，被付息存款持續成長所帶來的影響所抵銷。

This was a better result than we expected at the beginning of the quarter due to slightly higher cash and securities balances, slightly lower funding costs and additional efficiency and deployment of the market's balance sheet. As we continue to grow the markets balance sheet on a gross basis, we are becoming increasingly more efficient in how we deploy it, and we made more progress this quarter than we originally anticipated.

由於現金與證券餘額略高、資金成本略低，以及市場業務資產負債表的效率提升與配置增加，本季結果優於我們在季初的預期。隨著我們持續以總額口徑擴大市場業務資產負債表，我們在配置運用上愈來愈有效率，而本季的進展也超出我們原先的預估。

As our equity finance business expands, we are realizing greater netting benefits. And on the fixed income side, we are implementing more efficient funding structures, including sponsored repo and other balance sheet optimization solutions. I will update you on our expectations for full year net interest income later on the call.

隨著我們的股票融資業務擴張，我們正實現更大的淨額抵銷效益。在固定收益方面，我們正在導入更有效率的融資結構，包括贊助式回購（sponsored repo）及其他資產負債表最佳化解決方案。我會在稍後的電話會議中更新我們對全年淨利息收入的預期。

Moving to slide 7. Average loans increased $105 billion or 11% from a year ago, driven by growth in commercial and industrial loans, where demand remains healthy. Commitment levels have continued to increase across both Commercial Banking and the Corporate Investment Bank, while utilization rates have remained relatively stable. On the consumer side, auto securities-based lending and credit card continued to be the primary growth drivers.

接著看第 7 張投影片。平均貸款較去年同期增加 1,050 億美元，增幅 11%，主要由商業與工業貸款成長帶動，該領域需求仍然健康。商業銀行與企業投資銀行兩大部門的承諾額度水準持續上升，而動用率則維持相對穩定。在消費端，汽車、證券擔保貸款以及信用卡仍是主要成長動能。

Turning to deposits. Average deposits increased $143 billion or 11% from a year ago and were up 1% from the second quarter. We continue to have strong commercial interest-bearing deposit growth, reflecting continued client demand for higher-yielding products as well as our targeted growth initiatives. Consumer balances increased from a year ago and with a modest decline in balances from the second quarter, reflecting seasonal outflows.

接著談存款。平均存款較去年同期增加 1,430 億美元，增幅 11%，並較第二季上升 1%。我們的商業付息存款持續強勁成長，反映客戶對較高收益產品的持續需求，以及我們的重點成長策略。消費者存款餘額較去年同期增加，但較第二季小幅下降，反映季節性資金流出。

Turning to slide 8. Non-interest income declined 1% from a year ago. We had growth across several categories, including investment advisory, deposit-related fees, investment banking and card fees reflecting continued momentum in businesses where we've been investing. However, this growth was more than offset by lower trading gains, although revenue in our markets business was down only slightly versus a year ago. Lower lease income following the sale of our railcar leasing business in the first quarter as well as lower gains from the equity securities also contributed to the decline. We had only modest net gains from equity securities in the third quarter, and we currently expect them to remain low in the fourth quarter.

接著看第 8 張投影片。非利息收入較去年同期下降 1%。我們在多個類別實現成長，包括投資顧問、存款相關費用、投資銀行以及卡片手續費，反映我們持續投入的業務動能延續。然而，該成長被較低的交易收益所抵銷，儘管我們市場業務的收入相較去年僅小幅下滑。此外，第一季出售鐵路車輛租賃業務後租賃收入下降，以及股票證券收益較低，也促成了下滑。第三季我們來自股票證券的淨收益僅屬溫和，我們目前預期第四季仍將維持低檔。

As we have highlighted in the past, results from our venture capital investments can be volatile from quarter-to-quarter, but we continue to expect strong returns over time. It's important to note that we generated more than $1 billion of equity gains during the first half of the year which is in line with our historical full year average. As a result, even with minimal gains in the second half of the year, we would still be on track for a solid full year results.

如同我們過去所強調的，我們創投投資的結果可能在各季之間波動，但我們仍預期長期可取得強勁報酬。值得注意的是，我們在上半年產生超過 10 億美元的股票收益，與我們歷史上的全年平均水準一致。因此，即使下半年收益極少，我們仍可望達成穩健的全年表現。

Turning to expenses on slide 9. Non-interest expense declined $103 million from a year ago, and our efficiency ratio improved to 63%, down 2 percentage points year-over-year. Personnel expense declined driven by lower severance costs, which were $296 million a year ago. Higher revenue-related compensation expense was largely offset by the benefits of our efficiency initiatives. Non-personnel expense increased from a year ago driven by higher tech and technology and equipment expense.

接著看第 9 張投影片的費用。非利息費用較去年同期減少 1.03 億美元，我們的效率比率改善至 63%，年減 2 個百分點。人員費用下降，主要因資遣費用較低；去年同期資遣費用為 2.96 億美元。較高的與營收相關之薪酬費用，大致被我們效率提升措施的效益所抵銷。非人員費用較去年同期增加，主要由較高的科技（tech）以及技術與設備費用所帶動。

Turning to credit quality on slide 10. Our credit performance in the third quarter remained strong with a net loan charge-off ratio of 38 basis points of average loans, down from a year ago. Commercial net loan charge-offs were stable from a year ago and increased 8 basis points from the second quarter to 18 basis points. We continue to monitor a range of macroeconomic and industry-specific risks including higher interest rates, inflation, geopolitical uncertainty and AI-related disruption. But as of now, we do not see signs of broad-based credit deterioration.

接著看第 10 張投影片的資產品質。我們第三季的信用品質表現仍然強勁，淨貸款核銷比率為平均貸款的 38 個基點，較去年同期下降。商業淨貸款核銷較去年同期持平，並較第二季上升 8 個基點至 18 個基點。我們持續監控多項總體經濟與產業特定風險，包括較高利率、通膨、地緣政治不確定性以及 AI 相關的顛覆。但截至目前，我們未看到廣泛性的信用品質惡化跡象。

Losses continue to be idiosyncratic and driven by borrower-specific situations. Consumer credit performance was strong with good performance across all portfolios and consumer net loan charge-offs declined to 70 basis points. Our allowance coverage ratio for total loans was relatively stable compared with the second quarter. Growth in commercial and industrial and auto loan balances drove a modest increase in the allowance, which was largely offset by a lower allowance for commercial real estate office loans.

損失仍屬個別事件（idiosyncratic），並由借款人特定情況所驅動。消費者信用品質表現強勁，各投資組合表現良好，消費者淨貸款核銷下降至 70 個基點。我們對總貸款的備抵覆蓋率相較第二季大致持平。商業與工業以及汽車貸款餘額成長帶動備抵小幅增加，但多數被商用不動產辦公室貸款備抵下降所抵銷。

Turning to capital and liquidity on slide 11. Our capital levels remained strong with our CET1 ratio at 10%, well above our CET1 regulatory minimum plus buffers of 8.5%. The decline from the second quarter included a decrease in accumulated other comprehensive income driven by the impact of higher interest rates. We plan to continue to manage our CET1 ratio to be within our target range of 10% to 10.5%. During the third quarter, we increased our common stock dividend of $0.50 per share and repurchased $2.5 billion of common stock.

接著看第 11 張投影片的資本與流動性。我們的資本水準仍然強勁，普通股權一級資本（CET1）比率為 10%，明顯高於我們的 CET1 監理最低要求加上緩衝的 8.5%。相較第二季的下降，包含因利率上升影響而導致的累積其他綜合損益（AOCI）減少。我們計畫持續將 CET1 比率管理在 10% 至 10.5% 的目標區間內。第三季期間，我們將普通股股利提高至每股 0.50 美元，並回購 25 億美元普通股。

Looking ahead, we will continue to consider the interest rate environment and the impact on accumulated other comprehensive income in determining how much stock we repurchase. And as a reminder, we expect the Federal Reserve to finalize Basel III capital rules and based on the proposal, we have estimated that our risk-weighted assets could decrease by approximately 7%, which all else being equal, would increase our CET1 ratio.

展望未來，我們將在決定回購規模時，持續考量利率環境及其對累積其他綜合損益（AOCI）的影響。另外提醒一下，我們預期聯準會將定案巴塞爾協定三（Basel III）資本規則；依據提案內容，我們估計在其他條件不變下，我們的風險加權資產可能下降約 7%，這將提高我們的 CET1 比率。

We provide an update on our operating segments on slides 12 through 15. Charlie has already covered the key drivers of revenue growth across the businesses. So I'll keep my comments brief and just highlight a few additional points. Let me start with Consumer Banking and Lending. We generated solid revenue growth while reducing expenses and return on allocated capital increased to over 32% in the third quarter.

我們在第 12 至第 15 張投影片提供各營運部門的最新情況。Charlie 已經說明各業務營收成長的關鍵驅動因素。因此我會簡要說明，只補充幾點。先從消費金融與放款（Consumer Banking and Lending）開始。我們在降低費用的同時，仍實現穩健的營收成長，第三季分配資本報酬率提升至 32% 以上。

Commercial Banking had good revenue growth and combined with disciplined expense management, their efficiency ratio improved to 43% in the third quarter from 48% a year ago.

商業銀行（Commercial Banking）營收成長良好，並在嚴謹的費用管理下，其效率比率於第三季改善至 43%，較去年同期的 48% 下降。

Turning to Corporate and Investment Banking. Banking revenue was up 8% from a year ago, including a 10% increase in investment banking. I'd like to focus for a moment on our markets business, where results can vary with market conditions, while equities revenue was up 21% from a year ago, total markets revenue was relatively stable from a year ago, and revenue in the third quarter was not as strong as during the first two quarters of the year. At an industry conference last month, I indicated that we expected third quarter markets revenue to be up mid-single digits year-over-year.

接著看企業與投資銀行（Corporate and Investment Banking）。銀行業務收入較去年同期成長 8%，其中投資銀行收入增加 10%。我想花點時間聚焦在我們的市場業務；其結果會隨市場狀況而波動。雖然股票業務收入較去年同期成長 21%，但整體市場業務收入相較去年同期大致持平，且第三季收入不如今年前兩季強勁。在上個月的一場產業會議上，我曾表示我們預期第三季市場業務收入年增為中個位數。

Our actual results reflected a more challenging market environment late in the quarter than we had anticipated. During the final weeks of September, interest rates moved sharply and these moves pressured fixed income valuations and significantly reduced client activity, particularly in strategic transactions, hedging activity in the primary issuance market. At the same time, equity market volatility stayed low, creating a less favorable environment for our equities derivative franchise.

我們的實際結果反映出季末市場環境比我們預期更具挑戰。在 9 月最後幾週，利率大幅波動，這些變動壓抑固定收益估值，並顯著降低客戶活動，尤其是在策略性交易、避險活動以及初級發行市場。同時，股票市場波動率維持低檔，使我們的股票衍生性商品業務面臨較不利的環境。

Finally, turning to Wealth and Investment Management, which generated strong results. I'd like to remind you that the majority of WIM advisory assets are priced at the beginning of the quarter. So fourth quarter results will reflect October 1 market valuations, which were above both July 1 and year ago levels.

最後，談到財富與投資管理（WIM），該業務表現強勁。我想提醒各位，WIM 顧問資產的大多數是在季度初定價。因此，第四季的結果將反映 10 月 1 日的市場估值，而該估值高於 7 月 1 日以及去年同期的水準。

Turning to our 2026 outlook on slide 17. Starting with net interest income, we still expect net interest income for full year 2026 to be $50 billion, plus or minus. Fourth quarter net interest income is expected to be approximately $13 billion and the net interest margin is expected to be stable from the third quarter. We expect the pace of net interest income growth to increase in the fourth quarter versus the prior two quarters due to a few factors. We expect continued benefit from loan growth as well as deposit growth. We also expect continued benefits from fixed rate asset repricing and higher investment security balances.

接著看投影片 17，我們對 2026 年的展望。先從淨利息收入（NII）開始，我們仍預期 2026 全年淨利息收入約為 500 億美元，上下浮動一些。第四季淨利息收入預期約為 130 億美元，淨利息收益率（NIM）預期將較第三季維持穩定。由於幾項因素，我們預期第四季淨利息收入的成長速度將較前兩季加快。我們預期將持續受惠於放款成長以及存款成長。我們也預期將持續受惠於固定利率資產的重新定價，以及投資證券餘額提高。

Given we are modestly asset sensitive, we expect fourth quarter net interest income, excluding markets to benefit from the higher interest rate environment. However, in markets, which is liability sensitive, some of these benefits would be offset since markets net interest income is negatively impacted by higher rates. However, this would largely be offset by markets non-interest income.

鑑於我們對資產利率變動的敏感度略偏正向，我們預期第四季（不含市場業務）的淨利息收入將受惠於較高的利率環境。然而，在市場業務方面，由於其對負債利率變動較為敏感，部分效益將被抵銷，因為市場業務的淨利息收入會受到升息的不利影響。不過，這在很大程度上將由市場業務的非利息收入所抵銷。

Turning to expenses. We continue to expect 2026 non-interest expense to be approximately $55.7 billion, while full year revenue-related expenses are expected to be approximately $400 million above our original expectations, driven by strong business growth in equity markets. Our ongoing focus on improving efficiency is driving more savings across the company, allowing us to offset the higher revenue-related expense. Our third quarter results demonstrate the strength of the franchise and the ongoing successful execution of our strategy, we continued to grow earnings, increase returns and invest in the business while maintaining strong credit performance and approach expenses.

接著談費用。我們仍預期 2026 年非利息費用約為 557 億美元；同時，全年與營收相關的費用預期將較我們原先預期高出約 4 億美元，主要由於股票市場業務的強勁成長所致。我們持續聚焦提升效率，正推動全公司取得更多節省，使我們得以抵銷較高的營收相關費用。我們第三季的結果展現了特許經營體質的強韌，以及我們策略持續成功的執行；我們在維持強勁的信用表現並妥善控管費用的同時，持續提升獲利、提高報酬並投資於業務。

Our stronger performance during the first three quarters of the year highlights the continued incremental progress we are making towards our goal of higher growth and returns. We will now take your questions.

今年前三季較強的表現，凸顯我們正持續朝向更高成長與更高報酬的目標取得逐步進展。接下來我們將回答各位的提問。

(Operator Instructions)

(接線員指示)

John McDonald, Truist Securities.

John McDonald，Truist Securities。

Thank you. Good morning. Mike, I was hoping you could start off, maybe just repeat a little bit of the comments about the drivers of the net interest income growth you expect in the fourth quarter? And then maybe just clarify, what you're saying about the market NII versus non-markets maybe in the context of, I think for the full year, you originally were hoping for 48 in 2 to get to the 50. Is that still the same? And maybe just clarify what you're saying about the fourth quarter split maybe between markets and total NII.

謝謝。早安。Mike，我希望你可以先開始，或許再重述一下你們預期第四季淨利息收入成長的驅動因素？另外也想請你釐清一下，你提到市場業務 NII 與非市場業務之間的差異；我記得就全年而言，你們原本希望 48 加 2 來達到 50。現在仍是同樣的看法嗎？也請釐清一下你對第四季市場業務與整體 NII 之間拆分的說法。

Yeah. Hey, John, thanks for the question. And so let me just start a little bit on Q3, and then I'll quickly bridge into Q4. So what we saw in Q3 is the NIM stabilized. The aggregate NIM stabilized. But when you look beneath that a little bit, what was happening is the NIM ex markets increased slightly. So we saw a little bit of expansion there. And that's part of what you're going to see as you go into Q4 as well. And then we also got the benefit of a lot of the efficiency work we've been doing and how we deploy the balance sheet in the markets business, and that sort of helps like bring good stability, I think, overall to the NIM.

好的。嗨，John，謝謝你的問題。我先從第三季稍微談起，然後很快銜接到第四季。第三季我們看到 NIM 穩定下來。整體 NIM 穩定。但如果再往下看一些，實際上是「不含市場業務」的 NIM 略有上升。所以我們看到那裡有些微擴張。而這也是你進入第四季時會看到的一部分。此外，我們也受惠於我們在市場業務中所做的大量效率提升工作，以及我們如何配置資產負債表；我認為這有助於讓整體 NIM 保持良好的穩定性。

And so we still expect that to be flat in Q4 relative to Q3. And just to double-click on that 1 second. So when you look at what we did in markets is -- and I think fixed income financing is a good illustration of it. The gross financing balances, they grew about 18% from the second quarter, but the net balances were down.

因此，我們仍預期第四季相較第三季將持平。再更深入一點說明一下。你看我們在市場業務做的事情——我認為固定收益融資是一個很好的例子。融資總餘額相較第二季成長約 18%，但淨餘額卻下降。

And that was a lot of the optimization that we have been doing, moving more clients to sponsored repo and other things. But -- and so we've got really good confidence that we've got more ability to continue to do that, and that will be pretty stable. So that sort of underpins sort of the NIM being pretty stable as we go into Q4.

這主要是我們一直在做的最佳化，例如把更多客戶轉到 sponsored repo（贊助式回購）以及其他安排。而且——我們對於仍有能力持續推進這些措施、並使其相當穩定，具有很高信心。因此，這也支撐了我們在進入第四季時，NIM 能夠維持相當穩定。

What's happening in Q4 then is you start to get the benefits of a lot of what you started seeing in Q3. So you look at loan balances, the step off into Q4 is bigger than obviously, the average balances you saw in the quarter. I think we were up the end of period is up $15 billion or so going into the fourth quarter. You have to look through a little bit of that because there's a little bit of seasonality at the end of the quarter in the commercial bank, but nonetheless, the step-up is bigger. And so you're getting the benefit of that in the fourth quarter.

那麼第四季發生的情況是，你開始享受到第三季已開始出現的許多效益。以放款餘額來看，進入第四季的起跳幅度，顯然大於你在該季度看到的平均餘額。我想期末餘額在進入第四季時增加了約 150 億美元左右。其中有一部分需要稍微看穿，因為商業銀行在季末有一些季節性因素，但即便如此，增幅仍然更大。因此，你會在第四季受惠於此。

We continue to grow deposits. And so you'll see more of that contribute into the quarter as well. You get the benefit of rates and sort of yield and repricing sort of coming through on the balance sheet. So almost every category outside of the markets business of earning assets saw a little bit of benefit in Q3 from higher yields, and you're going to see more of that in Q4. And that's going to lead to a little bit more of an expansion of the NIM ex markets as well as you go into the quarter. And then there are a few other factors that sort of drive it, but those are sort of the big ones that sort of lead to the step-up that we're going to see going into Q4.

我們也持續增加存款。因此，你也會看到更多存款成長在本季帶來貢獻。你也會看到利率、收益率以及重新定價在資產負債表上逐步反映所帶來的效益。因此，幾乎所有市場業務以外的生息資產類別，在第三季都因收益率提高而獲得一些好處，而你在第四季會看到更多。這也將帶動「不含市場業務」的 NIM 在本季進一步擴張。另外還有一些其他因素也會推動，但上述是我們看到進入第四季會出現起跳的主要原因。

And what I was saying on market NII is, as you go into this rising rate environment, we're asset sensitive on the banking book. You're going to see that NIM expand. You're going to see sort of the impact of rates come through. And since market is liability sensitive, you're going to see some impact on markets NII going into the fourth quarter, but that will be offsetting fees. And then when you look at the mix of the $50 billion, our best guess is on the market's NII that it will be slightly below $2 billion, call it, $1.8 billion-ish and then you'll make up for some of it to get in the non-market NII to sort of get back to the full year of $50 billion.

至於我對市場業務 NII 的說法是：在這個升息環境下，我們在銀行帳簿（banking book）上對資產利率變動較為敏感。你會看到 NIM 擴張。你會看到利率影響逐步反映出來。而由於市場業務對負債利率變動較為敏感，你會在進入第四季時看到市場業務 NII 受到一些影響，但這會由手續費收入所抵銷。再看 500 億美元的組成，我們的最佳估計是市場業務 NII 會略低於 20 億美元，大概可說是約 18 億美元左右；其餘部分則由非市場業務 NII 補足，以回到全年 500 億美元的水準。

Okay, thanks. That's very helpful. And I know it's too early for guidance on 2027 NII. But any early thoughts in terms of kind of just the drivers next year's NII relative to where you think you'll jump off on the fourth quarter, things we should keep in mind, good guys, bad guys as you go through your planning?

好的，謝謝。這非常有幫助。我知道現在談 2027 年 NII 的指引還太早。但就初步想法而言，關於明年 NII 的驅動因素、相對於你們認為第四季的起跳點，有沒有什麼我們應該記住的重點？在你們做規劃時，有哪些正面因素、哪些負面因素？

Yeah. I mean, look, certainly, when you look at the step-off point coming out of Q4, that's a net positive sort of where we are. Rates appear to be either increasing or certainly staying higher for longer than we contemplated not that long ago. So that's a net positive. We're still seeing good growth across the loan portfolio.

是的。我的意思是，你看，當然，從第四季出來的起跳點來看，我們目前的位置整體是淨正向。利率看起來不是在上升，就是至少會在更長時間內維持在較高水準，這比我們不久前所設想的還要久。所以這是淨正向。我們仍看到整體放款組合有不錯的成長。

We expect to continue to see good growth in the card business, auto business as well as on the commercial side. So those will all be positive. And then we've been pretty successful at growing deposits, particularly the interest-bearing deposits.

我們預期信用卡業務、汽車業務以及商業端都將持續呈現良好成長。因此這些都會是正向因素。另外，我們在存款成長方面也相當成功，特別是計息存款。

And so I think all of those things should sort of continue as we go into next year with all the right caveats around sort of the macro environment sort of being pretty constructive despite some of the noise you have there. But we enter the year. And I think if you -- the $13 billion is, what, close to $700 million over last year, and so you sort of enter the year in a better place.

所以我認為，隨著我們進入明年，在宏觀環境方面加上所有適當的但書——儘管有一些雜音，但整體仍相當具建設性——上述這些因素應該都會延續。但我們進入新的一年。而且我認為，如果你看——130億美元相較去年大概多了接近7億美元，所以你算是以更好的狀態進入新的一年。

Okay, got it. Thank you.

好的，了解。謝謝。

Scott Siefers, TD Cowen.

Scott Siefers，TD Cowen。

Morning, guys. Thanks for taking the questions. Mike or Charlie, I was hoping you could maybe just sort of touch on -- just sort of your thoughts for how a period of sustained higher rates kind of changes your sense for both customer health and resilience. And then maybe also touch on sort of your sense for how commercial demand might change portions of the consumer book where you've had good growth, how that might change, et cetera. So basically, impact on sort of resilience and growth dynamics.

早安，各位。謝謝讓我提問。Mike 或 Charlie，我希望你們能談談——你們如何看待在利率長期維持較高水準的情況下，對客戶健康狀況與韌性（resilience）的影響。另外也請談談你們對商業端需求可能如何改變——例如在你們成長良好的部分消費者業務組合中，可能會如何變化等等。基本上，就是對韌性與成長動能的影響。

Hey, Scott, it's Mike. I'll take a shot and welcome back, I think, to the call, to the new seat. So look, I think we've been living in this environment now for a while where inflation has been higher. Rates have been pretty high, although have moved a little bit higher more recently. You've seen the -- and the cumulative impact of that has been flowing through the economy.

嗨，Scott，我是 Mike。我先回答，也歡迎你回到這通電話會議——我想是換了新位置。你看，我認為我們在通膨較高的環境中已經生活一段時間了。利率一直相當高，雖然最近又再略微上升。你也看到——其累積影響已逐步傳導到整體經濟。

But what we're seeing sort of offset some of what would be kind of the negatives is wages and employment continues to be really strong. And wages are largely keeping up with inflation even at all of the different cohorts of clients we have, when you look at the income levels, wealth levels, the data would say on a cumulative basis over the last number of years, wages have sort of kept up which is sort of supporting the activity levels that we're seeing.

但我們看到能抵銷部分負面因素的是，薪資與就業仍然非常強勁。而且在我們各個客群中，薪資大致上都跟得上通膨；不論從收入水準、財富水準來看，數據顯示在過去數年累積下來，薪資基本上有跟上，這也支撐了我們目前看到的活動水準。

We're seeing -- we're not seeing any like deterioration in the credit profile of the consumer -- so I think as long as the employment picture stays pretty strong, like we should be able to keep seeing sort of the strong activity levels and strong performance across the consumer base. And even when you start looking at energy and gas prices, it is meaningful for sure, but it ends up being 3% to 6% of spend, depending on your wealth level or income level. So it's still manageable and people were able to offset that -- offset that with savings in other categories of spend. So overall, we're seeing a pretty strong picture there.

我們看到——我們沒有看到消費者的信用概況有任何惡化——所以我認為只要就業情勢仍相當強勁，我們就應該能持續看到消費者基礎上強勁的活動水準與良好表現。即便你開始看能源與汽油價格，確實有影響，但最終它占支出的比重約為3%到6%，取決於你的財富或收入水準。所以仍在可控範圍內，人們也能透過在其他支出類別節省來抵銷——抵銷那部分。因此整體而言，我們看到的圖像相當強勁。

And as long as the economy continues to grow and employment stays strong, that should continue. And we're just not seeing signs of that changing at this point, either from the way our -- the sentiment across our commercial client base or just in the actual metrics that we're seeing on the consumer side. On the commercial side, rates -- higher rates definitely matter. But in many of our commercial banking type clients, people have been pretty prudent now for a while, for years, in terms of how much leverage they're putting on.

只要經濟持續成長、就業維持強勁，這樣的情況就應該會延續。而目前我們並未看到有改變的跡象，不論是從我們——商業客戶群的情緒面，或是我們在消費端實際看到的各項指標。在商業端，利率——較高利率確實重要。但在我們許多商業銀行類型的客戶中，大家在槓桿使用上一直相當審慎，已經維持好幾年了。

So they're still being thoughtful about inventory levels or levels of investment despite sort of the AI and CapEx cycle that Charlie sort of talked about a little bit. So they come into this environment in pretty good shape. Now the higher rates are definitely going to impact valuations in places like commercial real estate. But that will take some time to really kind of play through those asset classes. So as we sit here today, things look pretty good. And despite sort of what you're seeing in terms of rates or just sort of overall sentiment that you're about.

因此，即便如 Charlie 稍早提到的 AI 與資本支出（CapEx）循環，他們在庫存水位或投資水準上仍然很謹慎。所以他們在進入這個環境時，整體狀況相當不錯。當然，較高利率確實會影響像商用不動產這類領域的估值。但要真正完全反映到那些資產類別上，還需要一些時間。所以以我們今天所處的位置來看，情況相當不錯。儘管你看到利率的變化，或你所提到的整體情緒。

Okay. Perfect. Thank you very much. And then maybe switch gears a second. A whole host of AI-related questions sort of floating around investor cite these, these days. But maybe I was hoping you could touch on just this idea that AI agents eventually make it just a lot easier to kind of identify and move around idle cash toward higher-yielding alternatives. Just maybe you at a top level how you're thinking about the possibility that technology improves, just sort of reduces deposit inertia over time and kind of what it means for value behavior for large low-cost deposit bases like yours and others in the industry?

好的。非常好。非常感謝。那我稍微換個話題。最近投資人之間有一大堆與 AI 相關的問題在流傳。但我希望你們能談談這個想法：AI 代理（agents）最終可能會讓辨識並把閒置現金移往更高收益替代方案變得容易很多。想請你們從高層次談談，你們如何看待科技進步可能會隨時間降低存款黏著度（deposit inertia），以及這對像你們和同業這種擁有大量低成本存款基礎的機構，其價值與行為面意味著什麼？

Yeah, hi. It's Charlie. I'll take that. Mike, you can chime in. Listen, I think I think we'd say like many other people have said, which is high-rate alternatives exist today. They have existed for a long time. If you want to move to a high rate, you can just go online and do it yourself in no time. And so that's not something new. The idea that consumers are going to give the power to an agent to act on their behalf unilaterally and move money around institutions that they don't know. They don't understand what they don't understand the terms of the accounts, they're moving it to and all those types of things. I think it's a long ways away.

好的，嗨。我是 Charlie。我來回答。Mike，你也可以補充。聽著，我想我們會說，跟很多人說過的一樣：高利率的替代選項今天就存在。而且已經存在很久了。如果你想轉到高利率產品，你現在上網自己操作，很快就能完成。所以這不是新鮮事。至於消費者會把權力交給一個代理，讓它代表自己單方面行事，並在他們不熟悉的機構之間搬移資金——他們不了解、也不理解要轉入的帳戶條款，以及諸如此類的事情——我認為距離那一天還很遠。

There's no question that agents will become a part of the way people interact. We have them -- we're building them ourselves. But the idea that, that's going to contribute to mass movement to higher-rate alternatives, I think, is completely overdone especially for the time period we can see.

毫無疑問，代理將會成為人們互動方式的一部分。我們也有——我們自己正在打造。但認為這會促成大規模資金移往更高利率替代方案，我覺得這種說法被嚴重誇大了，尤其就我們可見的時間範圍而言。

And just a reminder, people keep money with us for a lot of reasons beyond just maximizing that last value they get in terms of savings. They keep money because of the -- we're the primary payments account. They've got money coming in and going out all the time. We have wholesale customers that understand every last basis point and they want to pay us for certain services. And so clearly, these agents will become tools, but the idea that they're going to contribute to some mass movement anytime in the near future.

另外提醒一下，人們把錢放在我們這裡的原因很多，不只是為了把存款利息的最後一點點價值最大化。他們留存資金，是因為——我們是主要的支付帳戶。他們的資金一直在流入與流出。我們也有批發客戶，他們了解每一個基點，並且願意為某些服務付費給我們。所以很明顯，這些代理會成為工具，但認為它們會在短期內促成某種大規模資金移動——

I just think it's completely overdone. And the opportunity for us is to use agents to better serve our customers and let them get access to the things that we can do for them.

我認為那完全被誇大了。而我們的機會在於運用代理更好地服務客戶，讓他們能取得我們可以為他們提供的各種服務。

Perfect. No, that all sounds great. So I definitely appreciate all the color. Thanks again.

很好。不，那聽起來都很棒。所以我非常感謝你們提供的所有補充說明。再次感謝。

Ken Usdin, Autonomous Research.

Ken Usdin，Autonomous Research。

Thanks, good morning, guys. I wanted to ask a question just about capital and balance sheet utility. Noted that, obviously, AOCI was up, CET1 was down a little bit as was TCE. You didn't grow RWAs as much as you had in the prior couple of quarters. So I just wanted to know like are you thinking any differently about like what you're thinking about growing, what you're putting on the balance sheet and how does that build into your expectations for where you want to keep capital and capital return within that. Thanks.

謝謝，早安，各位。我想問一個關於資本與資產負債表運用效率（balance sheet utility）的问题。注意到很明顯地，AOCI 上升、CET1 小幅下降，TCE 也下降了一點。你們的 RWA 成長也不像前幾季那麼多。所以我想了解的是：你們是否在思考上有任何不同——例如你們打算成長哪些項目、把哪些資產放到資產負債表上；以及這如何納入你們對資本水位與資本回饋（capital return）目標的預期之中。謝謝。

Yeah. Hey, Ken, it's Mike. Really no different in terms of how we're thinking about growth. But again, we can continue to optimize as we deploy the balance sheet. And even in some of the optimization work that we're doing in markets, it's the same client activity with a lower footprint. And so you end up having less RWA associated with some of it as well. And so when you think about where we've been growing now for a while, it's all the same places that we expect to see some growth going forward.

是的。嗨，Ken，我是Mike。就我們對成長的思考方式而言，真的沒有什麼不同。但再說一次，隨著我們運用資產負債表，我們仍可持續優化。而且即便是在我們於各市場進行的一些優化工作中，也是相同的客戶活動、但以較低的資源占用來完成。因此，其中一部分最終也會對應到較少的RWA（風險加權資產）。所以當你思考我們已經成長了一段時間的領域時，未來我們預期仍會在同樣的地方看到一些成長。

On the consumer side, we continue to expect the card and the auto portfolios to grow. I think you won't see much growth in home lending. And then on the commercial side, we're seeing good loan growth. Again, you can see that in the commercial bank as well as pockets in the corporate investment bank. And that will flow on in any given quarter based on just sort of what's happening and the opportunity set that's there.

在消費金融方面，我們仍預期信用卡與汽車貸款投資組合會成長。我認為房貸業務不會有太多成長。而在商業端，我們看到不錯的放款成長。同樣地，你可以在商業銀行以及企業投資銀行的部分領域看到這點。而這會在任何一個季度中反映出來，取決於當時的情況以及可得的機會集合。

And then in the markets business, we're as excited as ever in terms of being able to continue to scale that business and seeing really good receptivity across a lot of clients that were either deepening relationships with or adding on to the platform. And so I think we continue to see really good opportunity there, all in the context of continuing to increase the return profile of the whole company as we go as well.

接著在市場業務方面，我們一如既往地感到非常振奮，因為我們能夠持續擴大該業務規模，並且看到許多客戶的回應非常正面——不論是我們正在深化關係的客戶，或是新增到平台上的客戶。因此我認為我們仍持續看到非常好的機會，同時也會在此背景下，隨著推進持續提升整家公司整體的報酬結構。

And I would just add on that. I think we feel like we've got a lot of flexibility when it comes to our ability to manage our overall capital. As Mike said, we're growing, but we're very conscious of and have the ability to manage the risk-weighted assets in that we earn at $6 billion a quarter in terms of earnings power, less dividends. That adds just when we show up 30 basis points or so to our CET1 ratio for the quarter. And then we've got just variability of rates and rates are back down from where they were. So we've got flexibility to both grow and manage capital and over a period of time, continue to return capital to shareholders as we've been doing.

我再補充一下。我認為在管理整體資本能力方面，我們覺得自己有很大的彈性。如Mike所說，我們在成長，但我們也非常有意識地、並且有能力去管理風險加權資產；就獲利能力而言，我們每季約有60億美元的獲利能力，扣除股利後，這大致會讓我們當季的CET1比率增加約30個基點左右。此外，利率也存在波動性，而利率已從先前的水準回落。因此我們同時具備成長與管理資本的彈性，並且在一段時間內，持續如同我們一直以來所做的，將資本回饋給股東。

Got it. And just a quick one on deposit betas. Given that you've been changing what's been growing since the asset cap came off. And obviously, we've seen the commercial deposits growing. Do a view at all on how in this up cycle for rates, how deposit betas might be different than the prior rising rate cycle. Thanks.

了解。再快速問一個關於存款beta的問題。鑑於資產上限解除後，你們成長的內容一直在變化。而且顯然我們看到商業存款在成長。在這一輪利率上行週期中，你們對存款beta相較於上一輪升息週期是否會有所不同，有沒有任何看法？謝謝。

Yeah. Look, at this point, it's -- we don't think they're going to be that different versus what we saw last go around. And I think what we saw so far from the hike in September, I think, is a good example of that. In the Corporate Investment Bank, those are going to be the highest betas by far, but it's right on top of what our playbook is for the rate increase, maybe slightly -- the beta was slightly lower than at least so far in terms of what we expected to see. In the commercial bank, the betas are much lower than the corporate investment bank. And again, right on top of what we would have expected to see.

是的。你看，就目前而言——我們不認為它們會和上一次看到的有太大不同。而且我認為，到目前為止，9月那次升息所呈現的情況，就是一個很好的例子。在企業投資銀行（CIB）方面，beta無疑會是最高的，但它完全符合我們針對升息的既定操作手冊；甚至到目前為止，beta還略低於我們原先預期會看到的水準。在商業銀行方面，beta遠低於企業投資銀行。同樣地，也完全符合我們原本預期會看到的情況。

And then in the consumer space, it really is about sort of how you manage sort of CD rates and high-yield savings promos that we've launched through the branches. The rest of the book is actually quite stable and not moving from a rate perspective. So overall, so far, exactly what we would have expected to see and don't think at this point, it's going to be that different than what we've seen at all last time.

然後在消費金融領域，主要取決於你如何管理定存（CD）利率，以及我們透過分行推出的高收益儲蓄促銷活動。其餘的存款組合其實相當穩定，從利率角度來看並沒有變動。所以整體而言，到目前為止完全符合我們的預期，也不認為在此時點它會與上一次看到的情況有任何顯著不同。

Thanks a lot.

非常感謝。

Ebrahim Poonawala, Bank of America.

Ebrahim Poonawala，美國銀行。

Hey, good morning. I guess first question, just around -- I think, Charlie, you laid out all the areas that Wells has been investing in Business Banking, Wealth [Exec] payments. As we think about -- and that's been going on for a few years, as you think about where that monetization is showing up already versus where it's on the come, looking out over the next 12 to 24 months? Like could you just break it down for us how we should think about where we could see building momentum as we think about next year assuming the macro holds up and where you've already been able to monetize some of those investments more noticeably in -- over the last few quarters?

嗨，早安。我想第一個問題是關於——我認為Charlie，你已經概述了富國銀行在商業銀行、財富管理、[Exec]支付等領域的所有投資方向。當我們思考——而這已經進行了幾年——在未來12到24個月展望下，你如何看待這些投資的變現（monetization）已經在哪些地方開始顯現、以及哪些地方仍在醞釀中？你能否幫我們拆解一下：假設總體環境維持穩健，當我們看明年時，哪些地方可能會看到動能逐步建立；以及在過去幾個季度中，你們已經在哪些投資上更明顯地實現了變現？

Sure, Ebrahim. It's interesting. When we look at our results, we talk about the statistics, whether it's growth in check accounts, growth in credit card accounts growth in loans in the commercial bank, growth in our lending products, growth in assets under our total client assets in wealth and I tried to lay out and across the entire franchise, we see all the businesses with the exception of mortgage growing those statistics.

當然可以，Ebrahim。這很有意思。當我們看我們的業績時，我們會談到一些統計指標，不論是支票帳戶成長、信用卡帳戶成長、商業銀行放款成長、我們放款產品的成長、財富管理中我們的客戶總資產（total client assets）項下資產成長；而我也試著說明，在整個特許經營體系（franchise）中，除了房貸以外，我們看到所有業務的這些統計指標都在成長。

When we look at our revenue growth, I went through this in my prepared remarks, our [win] revenues were up 12%. Our commercial banking revenues are up 6%. Consumer Banking and lending revenues up 5%, commercial -- corporate investment bank revenues up 3%, with areas of focus like M&A of 30%, ECM up 33%, investment grade up 33%. And so as we think about what we've been investing in versus what we're getting for it, we see that very clear payoff.

當我們看營收成長時，我在事先準備的發言中提過，我們的[win]營收年增12%。我們的商業銀行營收年增6%。消費金融與放款營收年增5%，企業——企業投資銀行營收年增3%；其中重點領域如併購（M&A）成長30%、股權資本市場（ECM）成長33%、投資級業務成長33%。因此，當我們思考我們投入了什麼、以及我們從中獲得了什麼回報時，我們看到非常清楚的成果。

In terms of our revenue growth for the quarter this quarter, we had a very big quarter in our equity gains last quarter from our private equity investments. I didn't have that this quarter. We said those will be -- you need to look at them over a long period of time. So what we see is that these investments that we've been making are paying off, and we would expect that to continue.

就本季的營收成長而言，上季我們來自私募股權投資的股權收益非常大。本季則沒有出現同樣的情況。我們也說過，這些需要以較長的時間跨度來觀察。因此我們看到的是：我們一直在做的這些投資正在帶來回報，而我們預期這種情況會持續。

When we think about where we are on the investment versus the payoff cycle, we're probably much earlier in the consumer bank because we -- because of the things that we had to fix over a period of time. And we compete with people who have been investing for a decade to two decades and we've been investing now for two years in that. And so even though we see growth in that part of the business, we would hope to see more acceleration in our core consumer and small business franchise.

當我們思考目前處於「投資」相對於「回報」的週期位置時，我們在消費銀行端可能還早得多，因為——因為我們在一段時間內必須先把一些事情修復到位。而我們的競爭對手已經投資了10到20年，而我們在這方面投資至今大約只有兩年。因此，即便我們在這部分業務看到成長，我們仍希望在核心消費者與小型企業的特許經營體系中看到更快的加速。

We would expect to see more of the same in our card business, more of the same in our auto business, more of the same in the commercial bank. And I would say in our -- in the corporate investment bank, more of the same in some areas, but potentially broader growth with even markets. So overall, when we think about what we've been able to produce EPS growth of 13% ROTCE marching upwards, north of 16% now kind of continuous progression upwards with this kind of broad-based growth, and we see it continuing. And so we feel really good about being able to deliver that as time goes on.

我們預期在信用卡業務會看到更多同樣的表現，在汽車貸款業務也會看到更多同樣的表現，在商業銀行也是如此。而我會說，在——企業投資銀行方面，某些領域會是更多同樣的表現，但也可能在更廣泛的範圍內成長，甚至包括市場業務。所以整體而言，當我們看到我們已能實現每股盈餘（EPS）成長13%、ROTCE持續上行、目前已超過16%，在這種廣泛且均衡的成長帶動下呈現持續向上的進展，我們也看到這會延續下去。因此，隨著時間推進，我們對能夠交付這些成果感到非常有信心。

That's helpful. And I guess, just out of curiosity, I realize it's not needle moving but you chose to talk about tokenization and take deposits in your prepared remarks. Just to put it in context, like do you see significant adoption happening either in the markets or the commercial payments business? And does it does that create a meaningful opportunity for Wells as you think about investing, growing client wallet share. Just if you can size that for us to whichever way you can. Thank you.

這很有幫助。另外，出於好奇，我知道這不是會大幅影響整體的因素，但你在事先準備的發言中選擇談到代幣化（tokenization）以及吸收存款。為了把它放在脈絡中，你是否看到在市場業務或商業支付業務中出現顯著的採用（adoption）？而這是否會在你們思考投資、提升客戶錢包份額（wallet share）時，為富國銀行帶來具意義的機會？如果可以的話，請用你能提供的方式幫我們量化一下。謝謝。

Yeah, Ebrahim, it's Mike. So I'd say what we're doing in tokenized deposit payments, really starts with how do you do a better job servicing cross-border payment needs of our customers. And I think the existing -- there's lots of discussion around some of the negatives of the existing payment rails when it comes to cross-border payments, takes too long transparency et cetera, et cetera. And I think what this allows us to do is completely change that experience.

是的，Ebrahim，我是 Mike。所以我會說，我們在代幣化存款支付（tokenized deposit payments）上所做的事情，真正的出發點是：如何更好地滿足客戶的跨境支付需求。我認為，現有的——關於現有支付軌道在跨境支付方面的一些缺點，大家有很多討論，例如耗時太久、透明度不足等等。而我認為，這項技術讓我們能夠徹底改變那種體驗。

And so it goes from what could be a day or two to sort of get your payment to where it's going to this is in production, by the way. And it's small volume so far. But like the payments that we're doing are getting from initiation to beneficiary count in 2 minutes or less. And I think -- so it completely starts to change sort of the experience that you can provide to the customers.

因此，它把原本可能需要一兩天才能讓你的付款到達目的地的流程——順帶一提，這已經在正式生產環境中運行了。目前量還不大。但我們正在做的付款，從發起到入帳到受款人帳戶，能在 2 分鐘以內完成。我認為——這就完全開始改變你能提供給客戶的體驗。

And then for us, more broadly, we don't have the same international branch network that other big global players have. And so this technology allows us to go after an addressable market in the cross-border space in a completely different way and provide a solution that is as good or better than a lot of the peers can provide.

然後對我們而言，更廣泛地說，我們不像其他大型全球同業那樣擁有同等規模的國際分行網絡。因此，這項技術讓我們能以完全不同的方式切入跨境領域的可服務市場，並提供一個不輸、甚至優於許多同業所能提供的解決方案。

And so it does, over time, increase our addressable market that we can go after without having to make significant investments of putting people locally in a bunch of different places around the world. And then just more broadly, it gives us the blockchain technology to do a whole bunch of other stuff if the use cases start to materialize around other tokenization of real-world assets, tokenization securities, whether it's crypto trading in our wealth business or a whole bunch of other different places.

因此，隨著時間推進，它確實能在不需要投入大量成本、在全球許多不同地點配置在地人員的情況下，提升我們可攻佔的可服務市場規模。此外，更廣泛地說，它也讓我們擁有區塊鏈技術，若未來其他使用情境開始成形——例如其他現實世界資產的代幣化、證券代幣化，或是在我們的財富管理業務中進行加密貨幣交易，以及其他許多不同領域——我們就能做一大堆事情。

So it does give us some real-world benefits today. It increases the addressable market in payments. And then just much more -- it gives us a lot of optionality over a whole bunch of different use cases if and when they develop and become more meaningful.

所以它今天確實帶來一些現實世界的效益。它擴大了我們在支付領域的可服務市場。而且更重要的是——如果、以及當這些使用情境發展並變得更有意義時，它也讓我們在許多不同用例上擁有很大的選擇權（optionalitiy）。

That's helpful. Thank you, both.

這很有幫助。謝謝你們兩位。

Manan Gosalia, Morgan Stanley.

Manan Gosalia，摩根士丹利。

Hey, good morning. I wanted to ask on the deposit mix. I know you've previously spoken about interest-bearing commercial deposits leading the growth initially and then lower cost operating balances coming through over time. Can you help us think through when we should see that mix start to improve consistently and are we getting close to an inflection in those non-interest-bearing deposit balances as well?

嗨，早安。我想問一下存款結構（deposit mix）。我知道你們之前提過，成長一開始主要由計息的商業存款帶動，之後隨著時間推進，較低成本的營運性餘額會逐步進來。你能否協助我們理解，何時我們應該會看到這個結構開始持續改善？另外，在無息存款餘額方面，我們是否也接近一個拐點（inflection point）？

Yeah. I think I would -- you probably need to focus a little bit less on mix and a little bit more on dollars of deposits growing because like we still think there's a lot of opportunity to grow on the interest-bearing side. And as I said on the call and just in other forums, these are great returning long-term balances that come with other fees associated with them and on the payment side. And so I think they're very valuable over a long period of time.

是的。我想我會——你可能需要少一點關注結構、多一點關注存款金額（dollars of deposits）的成長，因為我們仍然認為在計息端還有很大的成長機會。而且正如我在電話會議以及其他場合所說，這些都是很好的、會回流的長期餘額，並且伴隨其他相關費用，以及支付端的收入。所以我認為，從長期來看它們非常有價值。

The non-interest-bearing or low interest-bearing deposits come as we grow more on the consumer side. You see momentum building, as Charlie sort of talked about in his remarks on the consumer side, those will bring either non-interest-bearing or sort of low interest-bearing deposits with them.

無息或低息存款，會隨著我們在消費者端的成長而增加。你會看到動能正在累積，正如 Charlie 在他對消費者端的評論中提到的，那些業務會帶來無息或偏低息的存款。

And then as we continue to grow our treasury management and payments business on the commercial side, those also bring non-interest-bearing deposits with them because for clients to support all of the payment needs that they have with us. And so those things just take a little bit longer to sort of materialize and grow in a more meaningful way. And so I think you'll see interest-bearing still grow at a faster clip for a while as we continue to deepen with many of our clients.

然後，隨著我們在商業端持續擴大財資管理與支付業務，那些也會帶來無息存款，因為客戶要在我們這裡支援他們所有的支付需求，就需要相應的存款餘額。因此，這些事情只是需要更長一點時間，才會逐步顯現並以更有意義的方式成長。所以我認為，在我們持續加深與許多客戶的合作之際，計息存款在一段時間內仍會以更快的速度成長。

Got it. And then maybe pivoting to expenses. The full year guide implies about $14 billion or so of expenses in the fourth quarter. So it's a little bit of a step-up from this quarter. How much of that is just a timing of investments and other spend that you're making? And is that a good jumping off point as we think about next year?

了解。那接著可能轉到費用。全年指引意味著第四季費用大約是 140 億美元左右。所以相較本季會有一點上升。其中有多少只是投資與其他支出在時間點上的差異？而且當我們思考明年時，這是否是一個好的起跳點（jumping off point）？

Yeah. Well, in the third to fourth quarter, there's always -- if you go back and look at it over time, there's always a little bit of an increase from the third to fourth. So there's nothing special embedded within that. And I think we're trending well to sort of hit the full year guide and potentially it could be a little bit better, but like we are trending well there.

是的。嗯，從第三季到第四季，一直都會——如果你回頭看長期趨勢，第三季到第四季總是會有些微增加。所以那裡面沒有什麼特別的因素。而且我認為我們目前的走勢良好，能夠達成全年指引，甚至可能會稍微更好一些；但總之，我們在那方面的趨勢是好的。

I think as you sort of think about next year, without giving anything -- without giving specific numbers, the fourth quarter is not a good jumping-off point because it doesn't take into account all the work we continue to do on the efficiency side, which again, as we've said over and over, we still think there's a lot of meaningful opportunity to drive that. So as we enter sort of our budget conversations going into next year. We come at it in the same way we've been doing it for years now, which is like we expect every part of the company to drive meaningful efficiency we've got to continue to make the investments that we've got -- we want to make. You got to deal with inflation on salaries and other things. And that will net down to a number.

我認為，當你思考明年時，在不提供任何——不提供具體數字的前提下，第四季不是一個好的起跳點，因為它沒有把我們在效率面持續推進的所有工作納入考量；而且一如我們一再強調的，我們仍然認為在推動效率方面有很大、很有意義的空間。所以當我們進入明年的預算討論時，我們會用過去多年一貫的方式來做，也就是：我們期待公司每個部分都要推動有意義的效率提升；同時我們也必須持續進行我們想做、也必須做的投資。你還得面對薪資與其他項目的通膨。最後這些會相互抵銷，形成一個數字。

And so I think we still expect we still expect to see sort of meaningful efficiencies as we go into next year to help offset some of that.

因此，我認為我們仍然預期——我們仍然預期在進入明年時，會看到有意義的效率提升，以幫助抵銷其中一部分。

And maybe I can just add a couple of things to that. First of all, when we think about we as a company and what we're focused on, I think we're very focused on growing the business in a smart methodical way. We've talked about that a whole bunch in terms of where we're seeing that. In terms of like the expenses and what we've done and the way we think about it. We've been very consistent since we've been here about focusing on efficiencies, reinvesting.

我也許可以再補充幾點。首先，當我們思考公司以及我們的重點時，我認為我們非常專注於以聰明、循序且有方法的方式來成長業務。我們已經在很多地方談過我們在哪些方面看到這種趨勢。就費用以及我們已做的事情、以及我們看待費用的方式而言，自從我們在這裡以來，我們一直非常一致地聚焦在效率、以及再投資。

And even this quarter, the fact that our expenses were like somewhat flat to down when our revenue-related expenses, which are mostly commissions, which are formulaic or up, says a lot about levers that we're able to pull we're very focused on building a company which has higher embedded returns, which is more efficient.

甚至在本季，我們的費用大致持平到略降，而與收入相關的費用——主要是佣金，屬於公式化計算——卻是上升的，這很能說明我們能夠運用的槓桿。我們非常專注於打造一家具有更高內嵌報酬（embedded returns）、更有效率的公司。

And when we get lots -- and we get questions about AI and people talk about agents and all these other things, I personally think there's like this under-appreciation for the benefits that those with scale have when it comes to AI. And I think there are huge benefits when it comes to how we can serve customers and our ability to build tools for customers and deploy them broadly. But the same thing is true on the expense side.

而當我們收到很多——大家問到 AI，並談到代理（agents）以及其他各種事情時，我個人認為，市場對於「具備規模者在 AI 上的優勢」其實有點被低估了。我認為在我們如何服務客戶、以及我們打造工具並廣泛部署給客戶的能力方面，會有巨大的好處。但同樣的道理也適用在費用端。

We can go build an agent that can do the work in our call centers or in our sites, and we can spend the same amount of money as someone else but deploy it over a very large part of the company here. And so this idea of scale matters in AI world is even more so. And that's probably not very good English, but I hope you understand what I'm saying. Again, I think we feel that way, both on the how we serve customers and ultimately what it means for revenue over a period of time. But certainly, when it comes to our ability to continue to become more efficient, which will allow us to either control expenses and reinvest in other things at the same time.

我們可以去打造一個代理，讓它在我們的客服中心或各據點完成工作；我們花的錢可能跟別人一樣，但可以把它部署到公司內非常大的一部分。所以「規模在 AI 世界很重要」這個概念，在這裡更是如此。這句英文可能不太好，但我希望你能理解我的意思。再說一次，我認為我們在兩個面向都有這種感受：一是我們如何服務客戶，以及長期而言這對營收的意義；但當然，在我們持續提升效率的能力上也是如此，這將使我們能夠在同時控制費用的情況下，還能再投資到其他事情上。

It's just -- that's just kind of something that's kind of appeared with the advent of these models that we're incredibly bullish about.

只是——這算是隨著這些模型的出現而浮現的一件事，而我們對此極度看多。

That's great color. Thanks, Charlie. Thanks, Mike.

這些補充說明很有幫助。謝謝你，Charlie。謝謝你，Mike。

Erika Najarian, UBS.

Erika Najarian，瑞銀（UBS）。

Thank you and good morning. Just a few follow-up questions for me. First on capital, when Moody's affirmed your ratings on October 5, they did say something about estimating that your RWA benefit from Basel III endgame would be RWA down 7%, but they would view operating at the low end of your CET1 ratio target of 10% to 10.5% as credit negative. I know that they said it in context of Basel III end game, but I'm just wondering with the current CET1 at 10% and some of the growth opportunities that you've mentioned so far in this call. how investors should think about the buyback as a priority and absolute buyback levels relative to your CET1 today and that comment from Moody's, if that comment at all is impactful to how you're thinking about capital?

謝謝，早安。我這邊有幾個追問。首先談資本：穆迪在10月5日確認你們的評等時，確實提到他們估計你們會因巴塞爾III終局（Basel III endgame）而獲得RWA效益，RWA下降7%，但他們會將你們把CET1比率維持在目標區間10%到10.5%的低端視為信用面偏負面。我知道他們是在巴塞爾III終局的脈絡下說的，但我想問的是，在目前CET1為10%，以及你們在這通電話中提到的一些成長機會之下，投資人應該如何看待回購作為優先事項，以及相對於你們目前的CET1與穆迪那段評論，回購的絕對規模？如果那段評論對你們思考資本的方式有任何影響的話？

Yeah, Erika, it's Mike. I'll take a shot. Look, I think it's -- I think you're overreading the comment. I think, obviously, it is -- I think their comment was in the context of if RWAs go down by bunch and you manage below 10%, that would imply -- in their analysis, would imply, I think, they said a $13 billion decline in capital and so I think you just got to take that in context, like less capital from a rating agency perspective is worse than more capital. And so and there's a lot to play out between sort of now and then.

是的，Erika，我是Mike。我先回答看看。我認為——我覺得你有點過度解讀那段評論。我想很明顯，他們的評論是在這樣的情境下：如果RWA大幅下降，而你們把資本管理在10%以下，那在他們的分析中，將意味著——我記得他們說的是資本會下降130億美元，所以你必須把它放在脈絡裡看：從評等機構的角度，資本較少比資本較多更糟。而且從現在到那時之間，還有很多事情會發生。

So I wouldn't overthink that too much. I think as you look at like our capital priorities and the way we're going to manage capital, I think we said it in our remarks, again, we plan to manage capital between 10% and 10.5%, depending on sort of what we think the growth opportunity looks like and all the risks that are out there in the quarter. We'll use buybacks as sort of that lever after we go through that assessment.

所以我不會對此想太多。我認為，當你看我們的資本優先順序以及我們管理資本的方式時，我們在談話中也說過：我們計畫把資本管理在10%到10.5%之間，取決於我們認為的成長機會長什麼樣，以及當季外部存在的各種風險。在完成那個評估之後，我們會把回購作為一個槓桿來運用。

And that's kind of what -- the way we've approached it now for a number of years. And I think as Charlie, I think, said earlier, I think we've -- we certainly feel like we're going to have capacity over time to buy back plenty of stock. And I think we've done a lot since -- over the last number of years. But I think in any given quarter, it's going to be a function of like what we think the growth opportunity looks like and what risks are there and then buybacks end up being that last piece.

這基本上就是——我們多年來一直採取的做法。而且我想Charlie先前也提到，我們確實認為，隨著時間推進，我們會有足夠的能力回購相當多的股票。而且過去幾年我們也做了很多。但我認為在任何單一季度，回購規模都會取決於我們認為的成長機會，以及有哪些風險存在，然後回購就會成為最後那一塊。

Let me just kind of put a fine point on what Mike said is we -- obviously, we care a lot about our ratings. We care a lot about what rating agencies think. We look at where we are today and believe we continue to still have a significant amount of flexibility to deploy capital and not be in a position to harm anything relative to our ratings. As Mike said, we are comfortable with the range of managing capital that we've said. We do have the change in RWA coming hopefully from Basel III endgame, which should be tailwinds for us.

我再把Mike說的重點講得更明確一點：我們——顯然非常重視我們的評等。我們也非常在意評等機構怎麼看。我們看目前的位置，並相信我們仍然有相當大的彈性可以部署資本，而不至於在評等相關的任何面向造成傷害。如Mike所說，我們對我們所說的資本管理區間感到安心。我們也有希望因巴塞爾III終局而帶來的RWA變化，這應該會成為我們的順風。

We earn a lot of money in the quarter. And so when we look at all of that, that gives us the opportunity to use the balance sheet to serve customers as well as return stock. So we don't view that comment as limiting to anything we otherwise would be contemplating doing.

我們單季賺很多錢。因此，綜合來看，這讓我們有機會運用資產負債表來服務客戶，同時也回饋股東（回購股票）。所以我們不認為那段評論會限制我們原本會考慮做的任何事情。

Thank you for that complete answer. And as my second question, as a follow-up to John's line of questioning on net interest income. The exit rate for NII in the fourth quarter implies a 4% to 5% growth rate. And obviously, that's coming off of a 2.60% net interest margin in 4Q '25. Is that 4% to 5% the right sort of ballpark as we think about 2027?

謝謝你這麼完整的回答。第二個問題，延續John剛才對淨利息收入（NII）的提問。第四季NII的期末水準（exit rate）意味著4%到5%的成長率。而且很明顯，這是建立在2025年第四季2.60%的淨利差（NIM）之上。當我們思考2027年時，4%到5%是否是合理的大致區間？

And sorry for the compound question, Mike. But just wanted to clarify, we're calculating your beta in the last cycle, 4Q '21, 2Q '24 to be about 46% versus 55% at JPMorgan and 52% of BofA. And I just wanted to like make sure that you meant that you will continue to outperform your peers in terms of deposit beta. When you responded to the question that your beta should be the same this time around as it was in the last hiking cycle.

也抱歉這是個複合式問題，Mike。但我想再確認一下：我們計算你們在上一輪週期（2021年第四季到2024年第二季）的存款beta大約是46%，相較之下摩根大通是55%、美銀是52%。我只是想確認，你的意思是你們在存款beta方面會持續優於同業。因為你在回答時提到，這次的beta應該會和上一輪升息循環一樣。

Okay. If I miss a piece of that, Erika, you got to remind me, but I'll try to capture all of that. Maybe on the beta first. like I think when you look at the -- you have to look at each of the components of our deposit base separately. The mix is changing a little bit, right?

好的。如果我漏掉其中一部分，Erika，你得提醒我，但我會盡量把全部都涵蓋到。先談beta。我認為當你看——你必須把我們存款基礎的各個組成部分分開來看。組合正在有些微變化，對吧？

But when you look at each component of the deposit base, we don't expect the betas to be any different than they were the last cycle. We will have -- if you're comparing it to that time frame, we had more a bigger percentage of our deposit base was in the consumer side, so you're going to have a lower beta. Now that we're growing on the commercial side, in aggregate, you'll have a slightly higher beta, but that's a good thing as you, sort of, see the growth overall come through.

但當你看存款基礎的每個組成部分時，我們不預期beta會和上一輪週期有任何不同。如果你拿那段期間來比較，當時我們存款基礎中消費金融端占比更高，所以beta會比較低。現在我們在商業端成長，因此整體而言beta會稍微高一些，但這是好事，因為你會看到整體成長逐步反映出來。

Exactly how that will compare to, sort of, the peer set as a function of like the mix of deposits and how much of it is consumer versus commercial. And so I think you do need to normalize through that, but we do not expect each component to be really any different than what we saw in the last go around. I think in terms of the way to think about the jumping off point into 2027, I think we'll give more guidance like we normally do in January. But certainly, having a strong fourth quarter sets us up well as we go into next year.

至於這會如何與同業組合相比，取決於存款結構，以及其中消費端與商業端各占多少。所以我認為你確實需要把這些因素標準化來看，但我們不預期每個組成部分會與上一輪看到的情況有實質差異。至於如何看待進入2027年的起點，我想我們會像往常一樣在1月提供更多指引。但可以確定的是，第四季表現強勁，讓我們在進入明年時有很好的基礎。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Chris McGratty, KBW.

Chris McGratty，KBW。

Great. Good morning. Hey, Mike, in your prepared remarks or Charlie, you talked about markets in banking, not being a huge ROTCE P&L driver today. I guess my question is that the desired outcome when we think about your 17% to 18% ROE target over time? Or might that consider greater allocation to those businesses? Thanks.

很好。早安。Mike，在你的事先準備發言中，或是Charlie，你們提到市場業務與投行業務目前不是推動ROTCE損益表的主要動能。我想問的是，當我們思考你們長期17%到18%的ROE目標時，這是否就是你們想要的結果？或者你們是否會考慮對這些業務配置更多資源？謝謝。

Yeah. Let me just clarify what I meant to say. What I meant to say, so those businesses are very important drivers for our high ROTCE and improving ROTCE. And as we grow these businesses, we do expect those to be additive to the returns to the company. What I was just trying to say was that when you look at our company, we have like $80 billion in revenues.

是的。我先澄清一下我想表達的意思。我的意思是，這些業務對我們維持高ROTCE以及提升ROTCE而言，是非常重要的驅動因素。而且隨著我們擴張這些業務，我們確實預期它們會對公司的報酬率帶來增量貢獻。我只是想說，當你看我們公司時，我們大概有800億美元的營收。

When we look at the types of fees, whether it's like M&A, it's a relatively small portion of the revenues. So if there are significant market events or significant transactions, it's not going to move the needle as much for us because it's a smaller portion in any one quarter. So we compete with people that participate in super big underwritings and get very, very big fees or the market environment is very favorable, and they've got very favorable trading results. We participate in that, but just not to the same degree because the mix of those businesses is smaller. So I don't want to confuse this.

當我們看費用的類型時，無論是像併購（M&A）這類費用，在營收中都只占相對較小的一部分。因此，即便出現重大的市場事件或重大的交易，對我們的影響也不會那麼大，因為在任何單一季度中它都只是較小的一部分。所以我們會與那些參與超大型承銷、取得非常非常高費用的同業競爭，或者在市場環境非常有利時，他們也會有非常有利的交易結果。我們也會參與其中，但程度不如他們，因為這些業務在我們的組合占比較小。所以我不想讓大家混淆這點。

It is an important part of both the returns today and the improvement, we just don't expect it to be outsized in any individual quarter relative to what other companies might see.

這確實是當前報酬以及改善的重要組成部分，只是我們不預期它在任何單一季度會相對於其他公司所看到的表現而顯得特別突出。

Okay. That's helpful. Thank you for that. (inaudible) to the capital I just wanted to try to fully understand the message. It seems like be it's coincidence that intangible common equity ratio for some of your peers plan fixed (inaudible)

好的。這很有幫助。謝謝你的說明。（聽不清）關於資本，我只是想把訊息完全理解清楚。看起來好像是巧合，你們某些同業的無形普通股權比率計畫固定（聽不清）

You are breaking up.

你的聲音斷斷續續。

Operator, maybe we can come back. Maybe we can take the next call and see if he rejoins.

接線員，我們也許可以稍後再回來。也許我們先接下一通電話，看看他是否會重新加入。

Matt O'Connor, Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行（Deutsche Bank）的 Matt O'Connor。

Good morning. I just want to drill into a couple of the consumer businesses. I guess, first, in credit card, how far along are we into the seasoning of some of the kind of promos that you've done, looks like the yields are relatively stable. But you're getting good revenue growth overall. But just how do we think about what ending of the seasoning of some of these new accounts that were on promotion?

早安。我想深入問幾個消費金融業務的問題。我想先問信用卡：你們先前做的一些促銷方案，目前帳戶「熟成」（seasoning）的進度到哪裡了？看起來收益率相對穩定。但整體營收成長不錯。不過，對於這些在促銷期的新帳戶，當熟成期結束時，我們應該如何看待其影響？

Yeah. I'll try to give a little color there. So when you look at the progression that we've seen, we've launched the first new product back in the summer of 2021, our active cash card. And what you've seen over the last few years is progressively the vintages have gotten bigger. And in particular, over the last 2 years, those have been the biggest vintages by far.

好的。我試著補充一些背景。當你看我們看到的進展時，我們在 2021 年夏天推出第一個新產品，也就是我們的 Active Cash 卡。而你在過去幾年看到的是，各期別（vintage）的規模逐步變大。特別是過去兩年，這些期別迄今為止是規模最大的。

So the earliest vintages are maturing and performing right on top of where we would have thought they'd be, but the most recent vintages are bigger. And so you don't see the full impact of those coming through in terms of the profitability.

因此，最早的期別正在成熟，表現也正如我們原先預期；但最近的期別規模更大。所以你還看不到它們在獲利能力方面完全反映出來的影響。

I think as we look forward from here, I don't expect like big step-ups in terms of originations to continue to happen. I do expect we'll sort of operate in this 600,000 to 700,000 cards a quarter, somewhere in that range for a little bit. And I think as those vintages as the most recent vintages start to mature more, you'll start to see the profitability come into the P&L in a much more -- in a much bigger way. And I think that will start happening as we go into next year and then in a bigger way in the year after.

我認為往前看，我不預期放款承作量（originations）會再持續出現很大的跳升。我確實預期我們會在每季約 60 萬到 70 萬張卡的區間運作一段時間，大概在這個範圍。而我認為，隨著最近期別開始更成熟，你會看到獲利以更明顯、幅度更大的方式反映到損益表（P&L）上。我認為這會在我們進入明年時開始發生，並在後一年以更大的幅度呈現。

And just to be really like direct, that means that adds to earnings, that adds to return. So when we talk about continued progress that we expect to expect to see. We've been talking about this one for a while. And now that we're -- our originations are leveling out and those vintages are maturing, we should start to see more of an impact in the overall company, which is terrific.

而且更直接地說，這代表它會增加盈餘、提升報酬。所以當我們談到我們預期會持續看到的進展時——我們談這件事已經談了一段時間。現在我們的承作量正在趨於平穩、而這些期別也在成熟，我們應該會開始看到它對整體公司帶來更大的影響，這非常好。

Okay. That's helpful. And then maybe on the other side, in the auto business, you guys have continued to grow pretty aggressively over the last few quarters here, and you've seen some -- more of the smaller peers pull back and just wondering how you're able to kind of maintain reasonable returns there, spreads in light of some others pulling back your climbing spreads have gotten too tight for them. Thank you.

好的。這很有幫助。那另一邊，汽車金融業務方面，你們在過去幾季持續相當積極地成長，也看到一些較小的同業開始收縮。我想問的是，在其他人收縮、他們覺得利差被壓得太緊的情況下，你們如何仍能維持合理的報酬與利差？謝謝。

Yeah. No, it's a good question that we spend a lot of time talking about. And I think there's a few factors that are help where we are. One, we've got the relationship we put on about it, I guess, a little over a year ago now, maybe 15 months ago with Volkswagen and Audi. So that continues to add to the originations.

是的。這是個好問題，我們也花很多時間在討論。我認為有幾個因素有助於我們目前的狀況。第一，我們大約在一年多前、可能 15 個月前，與 Volkswagen 和 Audi 建立的合作關係，持續為我們帶來新增承作量。

And those returns are sort of right on top of where we would have expected at this point and decent. I think we've got other relationships with other OEMs where we've got some good flow that comes through there. And I think those are contributing to the core sort of returns. And then I think just more broadly, like we've been talking about becoming a slightly more full spectrum lender. And so we used to focus mainly on sort of the upper end of the prime spectrum.

而那些報酬大致符合我們在此時點的預期，表現也不錯。我認為我們也與其他 OEM（原始設備製造商）有其他合作關係，帶來不錯的業務流量。我認為這些都在支撐核心的報酬表現。另外更廣泛地說，我們一直在談要成為更偏向「全光譜」的放款機構。因此，我們過去主要聚焦在優質客群（prime）區間的上端。

Now we sort of are a little bit closer to near prime. And so you see good returns coming out of some of those originations as well. Just we're doing more near prime than we did before. And it ends up, if you look at sort of that lower end originations, it's only about 5% of the originations, but that also contributes to the returns we're getting. But it's a constant -- if rates stay high from here, that may compress returns more. And so we sort of -- we look at it quarter-to-quarter to see how we feel about it. But so far, we've been comfortable with what we put on year-to-date.

現在我們的定位稍微更接近「次優質」（near prime）。因此，你也會看到部分承作帶來不錯的報酬。只是相較以前，我們做了更多 near prime。而如果你看較低端的承作，它只占總承作量大約 5%，但也確實對我們取得的報酬有所貢獻。不過這是一個持續的——如果利率從這裡開始維持高檔，報酬可能會進一步被壓縮。因此我們會按季檢視，看看我們對此的看法。但到目前為止，我們對今年迄今所承作的業務仍感到滿意。

Okay. Thank you.

好的，謝謝。

John Pancari, Evercore ISI.

Evercore ISI 的 John Pancari。

Morning. Mike, just on the trading and IB revs, I know trading revs came in a bit lighter this quarter, and you noted FICC revs and then IB revs also a bit pressured. Could you maybe give us a little more color on underlying trends and how we -- maybe your thoughts on how we should think about IB revs here just given the pipeline, if you can update us on that and maybe similar thoughts on how we should think about trading just given the potential volatility amid the rate environment?

早安。Mike，關於交易與投行（IB）營收，我知道本季交易營收略低一些，你也提到 FICC 營收，以及投行營收也有些壓力。你能否再多提供一些底層趨勢的說明？以及我們應該如何看待投行營收——考量到案源管線（pipeline），如果你能更新一下；另外，在利率環境可能帶來波動的情況下，也請談談我們應該如何看待交易業務？

Sure. On the IB side, look, I mean, we're in the -- we were just under, I think, just under $900 million for the quarter, which is not a bad result given sort of where we've come from over the last couple of years. In there, you saw M&A up 30%. You saw equity capital markets up a bunch. And what you didn't see is sort of that led in leverage finance and sort of investment grade be as big a driver as you might have in other quarters. But overall, we continue to take a little bit of share like over time as we go, and that's kind of what we expected from all the investments that we've made over the last few years.

當然。先談投行（IB）這邊：我們本季略低於 9 億美元，我想大概是略低於 9 億美元；以過去幾年的基期來看，這不是個差的結果。其中你看到併購（M&A）成長 30%。你看到股票資本市場（ECM）也大幅上升。而你沒有看到的是，槓桿融資（leverage finance）以及投資級（investment grade）在本季不像其他季度那樣成為主要驅動因素。但整體而言，隨著時間推進，我們仍持續小幅提升市占，這也符合我們過去幾年所做各項投資的預期。

What happens in any given quarter is going to be a function of like individual deals closing, but we feel like the opportunity to continue to grow the IB, fee line is big. And I think we're continuing to make investments across a bunch of different coverage -- subsectors within the coverage group, whether it's in tech or in the health care space, in particular -- as well as some of the industrial subsectors. So we think there's a lot of opportunity to continue to grow that. And what we're also very pleased with is that we're really starting to see the efforts that to cover our commercial banking clients really work well. The fees for the commercial banking clients are up 25% and they're up a lot relative to where we started this journey three or four years ago.

任何一個特定季度會發生什麼，取決於個別交易的結案情況，但我們認為持續擴大投行（IB）費用收入線的機會很大。而且我認為我們正持續在多個不同的覆蓋領域——覆蓋團隊內的次產業——進行投資，不論是科技或醫療保健領域（尤其如此），以及部分工業次產業。因此我們認為仍有很多機會可以持續成長。另外我們也非常高興的是，我們確實開始看到針對商業銀行客戶的覆蓋努力運作得非常好。商業銀行客戶的費用收入年增25%，而且相較於我們在三、四年前開始這段旅程時，增幅也大很多。

so we continue to see meaningful opportunity in that space. In the markets, if you break it apart, the NII is going to be -- it's a liability-sensitive business. And so rates go up, NII is going to go down and you're going to see this geography shift back to fees.

所以我們持續看到該領域存在顯著機會。在市場業務方面，如果拆開來看，淨利息收入（NII）將會——這是一個對負債敏感的業務。因此利率上升，NII 會下降，你會看到這種地域性的結構轉回到費用收入。

So you really have to look at overall markets revenue to sort of judge the overall business. And that was effectively kind of flat year-on-year despite -- including some of the slowdown that we saw in September. But over a period of time, the opportunity there business and grow total revenues is still as meaningful as we've been saying and we think it as and we thought it was for a while. So it's just methodically chipping away, it's sort of continuing to get more efficient at the point in the balance sheet, onboarding clients, continuing to deepen relationships across the financing side and parlaying that into doing more on the trading side. So we still think there's a lot of upside to come in the overall revenue in markets.

所以你真的必須看整體市場業務收入，才能評估整體業務表現。而該收入基本上年對年持平，儘管——也包含我們在9月看到的一些放緩。但從較長時間來看，那裡的業務機會、以及成長總收入的機會，仍然如同我們一直所說的那樣重要；我們也認為它一直以來都是如此。所以就是有條不紊地逐步推進：在資產負債表的運用上持續提升效率、導入客戶、在融資端持續深化關係，並將其轉化為交易端做得更多。因此我們仍認為市場業務的整體收入還有很大的上行空間。

Okay. Good. Thanks for that. And then on the credit side, it's good to hear that consumer and commercial health is mostly intact. You did cite that high rates could impact CRE valuations. Are you observing any incremental stress at this point as rates have spiked on the commercial real estate front. And we're fielding a number of questions around multifamily implications potentially. Are you seeing anything on that broader front?

好的。很好。謝謝你的說明。接著在信用面，聽到消費與商業端的健康狀況大致仍然完好，這很好。你確實提到高利率可能會影響商用不動產（CRE）估值。隨著利率在商用不動產端大幅上升，你們目前是否觀察到任何額外的壓力？我們也收到不少關於多戶住宅（multifamily）可能影響的問題。在更廣泛的層面上，你們有看到什麼嗎？

Well, John, I mean, as you know, it's just math, right? So like rates go up, valuations got to go down, right, all else equal. And so I think -- but it's too early to kind of see real stress come through. It's not -- it will be very much specific to individual properties and whether the net operating income will be able to offset any increase in rate as they go through a refinancing. And so again, in some properties, I think it will be just fine, and you're going to see some of that get a little bit more stressed, but that will take some time to kind of play out over a longer period of time. But at this point, it's not causing like an acute issue in the first few weeks.

嗯，John，我的意思是，如你所知，這就是數學，對吧？所以利率上升，估值就得下降，對吧？在其他條件不變的情況下。因此我認為——但現在要看到真正的壓力顯現還太早。這不——它會非常取決於個別物件，以及在再融資時，淨營運收入是否能抵消利率上升帶來的影響。所以再說一次，有些物件我認為會完全沒問題；也會看到有些變得更有壓力，但這需要一些時間，會在較長期間內逐步發酵。但就目前而言，在最初這幾週並未造成急性問題。

The only thing I would just add is I think just when we look at the -- our ACL that we feel very good about what we have for CRE.

我唯一想補充的是，當我們看——我們的 ACL（信用損失準備）時，我們對於目前針對 CRE 的準備水準感到非常有信心。

Okay, great. Thank you for that.

好的，很棒。謝謝你的說明。

David Chiaverini, Jefferies.

David Chiaverini，Jefferies。

Hi. Thanks for taking the questions. Maybe a follow-up on the loan side. How should we think about loan growth from here in coming quarters relative to the guide of the mid-single-digit pace. And you spoke about this earlier, but maybe talk about your appetite to provide financing for AI infrastructure.

嗨，謝謝讓我提問。我想在貸款方面追問一下。相較於你們指引的中個位數增速，接下來幾季的貸款成長我們應該如何看待？你先前也提到過，但也請談談你們對於提供 AI 基礎設施融資的意願。

Yeah, David, I think when you look at the -- what we've seen in actual loan growth and where we likely will end of the year, it's going to be higher than the guide we gave in the beginning of the year, but we've been sort of talking about that over the last couple of quarters. and so that's definitely going to be the case. And I think how that progresses after this quarter, I think we'll -- we'll see as we get to the end of the year and provide our assumptions as we think for our guidance next year.

是的，David，我認為當你看——我們實際看到的貸款成長，以及我們今年年底可能的落點，會高於我們年初給的指引，但過去幾季我們也一直在談這件事。所以那肯定會是如此。至於在本季之後會如何發展，我想我們——我們會在接近年底時再看，並在提供明年指引時給出我們的假設。

But overall, we're still seeing good demand for loans across a lot of the different parts of the business. I think when it comes to the AI trade, I think we are very, very cognizant of all the different kinds of layered risks that sort of are embedded in the in those investments, whether it's the data center construction and all the permitting and power issues that are well sort of trotted or sort of the financing related to chips and other things that go inside the data centers, and we're very focused on ensuring we understand sort of who the lessees are, where the guarantees are, all the different sort of layered risks that could potentially come into play there.

但整體而言，我們仍在業務的許多不同部分看到良好的貸款需求。至於 AI 這個主題，我認為我們非常、非常清楚這類投資中所內含的各種分層風險：不論是資料中心建設、各種許可與電力問題（大家都很熟悉），或是與晶片及其他放入資料中心的設備相關的融資；我們也非常專注於確保我們了解承租方是誰、擔保在哪裡，以及所有可能在其中發揮作用的各種分層風險。

And we have very hard limits in terms of what we're willing to do and what we're not willing to do and are sticking to that. And it's a conversation that we're very focused on from the top down across all the different business businesses that are impacted by it.

而且我們對於願意做什麼、不願意做什麼都有非常嚴格的限制，並且會堅守這些限制。這也是我們自上而下、在所有受其影響的不同業務之間都非常聚焦的一個議題。

Great. Thanks for that. And then a follow-up on the net interest margin. Does the stable NIM guide for the fourth quarter assume a reduction in balances in the markets business or should we expect continued solid growth in the markets business? And is the netting of sponsored repos fully baked in at this point?

很好。謝謝你的說明。接著追問淨利差（NIM）。第四季 NIM 穩定的指引，是否假設市場業務的餘額會下降？還是我們應該預期市場業務會持續穩健成長？另外，贊助式回購（sponsored repos）的淨額處理目前是否已完全反映？

It's not fully baked in, and we do expect to see more activity growth in the business. And exactly what that nets into from the -- on a net balance sheet perspective, I think I won't -- I'm not going to, sort of, guide there, but I think we still have opportunity to --

目前還沒有完全反映，而且我們確實預期業務活動會有更多成長。至於從——以資產負債表淨額角度來看，最終會淨化成什麼樣子，我想我不——我不打算在這裡給指引，但我認為我們仍有機會——

We're not reducing market. We're not to hit a NIM number at all. Just the opposite. We're continuing to grow the business.

我們沒有在縮減市場業務。我們完全不是為了達到某個 NIM 數字而這麼做。恰恰相反。我們正在持續擴大業務。

Yeah. And like I said earlier, our fixed income finance and gross balances were up 18% versus the second quarter, and that balance sheet was down. So the activity levels are increasing, and I expect that to continue into the fourth quarter, exactly where the net balance sheet ends up, we'll see, but the activity is quite robust.

是的。而且如我先前所說，我們的固定收益融資與總餘額相較第二季成長了18%，而資產負債表規模卻是下降的。所以活動水準正在上升，我預期第四季會持續如此；至於資產負債表淨額最終落在哪裡，我們再看，但活動相當強勁。

Very helpful. Thank you.

非常有幫助。謝謝。

Okay. Thanks for the questions. We'll talk to you next time. Thank you.

好的。謝謝各位的提問。我們下次再聊。謝謝。