Werner Enterprises Inc (WERN) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, and welcome to the Werner Enterprises Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Chris Neil, Werner's Senior Vice President of Pricing and Strategic Planning. Please go ahead.

下午好，歡迎來到 Werner Enterprises 2022 年第三季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意正在記錄此事件。我現在想把電話轉給 Werner 的定價和戰略規劃高級副總裁 Chris Neil。請繼續。

Earlier this afternoon, we issued our earnings release with our third quarter results. The release, along with a slide presentation are available in the Investors section of our website at werner.com. Today's webcast is being recorded and will be available for replay beginning later this evening. Before we begin, please direct your attention to the disclosure statement on Slide 2 of the presentation as well as the disclaimers in our earnings release related to forward-looking statements. Today's remarks contain forward-looking statements that may involve risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially. Additionally, the company reports results using non-GAAP measures, which we believe provide additional information for investors to help facilitate the comparison of past and present performance. A reconciliation of the most directly comparable GAAP measures is included in the tables attached to the earnings release and in the appendix of the slide presentation. Now I will turn the conference over to Derek Leathers, our Chairman, President and CEO.

今天下午早些時候，我們發布了第三季度業績報告。該新聞稿連同幻燈片演示可在我們網站 werner.com 的投資者部分獲取。今天的網絡廣播正在錄製中，將從今晚晚些時候開始重播。在我們開始之前，請注意演示文稿幻燈片 2 中的披露聲明以及我們的收益發布中與前瞻性聲明相關的免責聲明。今天的評論包含前瞻性陳述，可能涉及風險、不確定性和其他可能導致實際結果大不相同的因素。此外，公司使用非 GAAP 指標報告業績，我們認為這為投資者提供了額外信息，有助於促進過去和現在業績的比較。最直接可比的 GAAP 指標的對賬包含在收益發布所附的表格和幻燈片演示的附錄中。現在我將把會議交給我們的董事長、總裁兼首席執行官 Derek Leathers。

Thank you, Chris, and good afternoon. Despite rising macroeconomic headwinds, I'm pleased to report that we achieved year-over-year growth in our quarterly adjusted earnings per share for the ninth consecutive quarter. Our large and resilient dedicated fleet performed very well. While we experienced moderating performance in One-way Truckload Logistics and our driving school network given more challenging operating conditions, third quarter produced the third highest ever adjusted earnings per share in a quarter in our history. I'd like to sincerely thank our talented Werner team for their meaningful contributions to our performance and also welcome the elite driving and nondriving professionals of the Baylor Trucking team to our Werner family. As a reminder, we acquired Baylor on October 1.

謝謝你，克里斯，下午好。儘管宏觀經濟逆風加劇，但我很高興地報告，我們連續第九個季度實現了季度調整後每股收益的同比增長。我們龐大而有彈性的專用機隊表現非常出色。考慮到更具挑戰性的運營條件，我們在單程卡車物流和駕校網絡方面的表現有所放緩，但第三季度的調整後每股收益創歷史第三高。我要衷心感謝我們才華橫溢的 Werner 團隊為我們的業績做出的有意義的貢獻，並歡迎 Baylor Trucking 團隊的精英駕駛和非駕駛專業人士加入我們的 Werner 大家庭。提醒一下，我們在 10 月 1 日收購了 Baylor。

Now let's move to Slide 4. During the quarter, we added 180 trucks in TTS with most of the increase in Dedicated. Just after quarter end, we added 200 high-performing Baylor trucks and professional drivers in our One-Way Truckload fleet. In light of the softening freight market and including the acquired trucks, we expect our fleet count to be up 100 to 200 trucks in fourth quarter. Peak season freight opportunities in One-Way Truckload and Logistics are more subdued this fourth quarter compared to a record freight market during peak in the fourth quarter a year ago. While inflationary cost pressures continue to be challenging, particularly for labor, equipment maintenance and insurance, we have begun to see some easing in the competitive driver recruiting and retention markets.

現在讓我們轉到幻燈片 4。在本季度，我們在 TTS 中增加了 180 輛卡車，其中大部分增加的是專用卡車。就在季度結束後，我們在單程卡車車隊中增加了 200 輛高性能 Baylor 卡車和專業司機。鑑於貨運市場疲軟，包括收購的卡車，我們預計第四季度我們的車隊數量將增加 100 至 200 輛。與一年前第四季度貨運市場高峰期創紀錄的貨運市場相比，第四季度單程卡車和物流的旺季貨運機會更加低迷。雖然通脹成本壓力仍然具有挑戰性，尤其是在勞動力、設備維護和保險方面，但我們已經開始看到競爭激烈的司機招聘和保留市場有所緩和。

In addition, within the consumer staples vertical, shoppers are increasingly trading down for value. By design, nearly 3/4 of our revenues are in necessity-based retail and food and beverage, with our freight weighted to winning customers that ship recurring and repeatable consumer staples.

此外，在必需消費品垂直領域，購物者越來越多地以低價購買商品。根據設計，我們近 3/4 的收入來自必需品零售和食品和飲料，我們的運費加權給贏得客戶，這些客戶運送經常性和可重複的消費必需品。

Let's move to Slide 5 for a summary of our financial highlights. For third quarter, revenues increased 18% to $828 million. Adjusted operating income increased 8% to $79.5 million and adjusted EPS increased 14% to $0.90 per share, Dedicated into the quarter with 5,430 trucks, adding 110 during the quarter and 310 year-over-year. Dedicated continues to experience strong demand from the majority of our long-term customers, and the pipeline of new opportunities remain strong. At quarter end, One-way Truckload had 3,150 trucks plus 70% for the quarter and up 50% year-over-year.

讓我們轉到幻燈片 5，了解我們的財務亮點摘要。第三季度，收入增長 18% 至 8.28 億美元。調整後營業收入增長 8% 至 7,950 萬美元，調整後每股收益增長 14% 至每股 0.90 美元，本季度投入使用卡車 5,430 輛，本季度增加 110 輛，同比增加 310 輛。 Dedicated 繼續受到我們大多數長期客戶的強烈需求，並且新機會的渠道依然強勁。在本季度末，One-way Truckload 擁有 3,150 輛卡車，本季度增長 70%，同比增長 50%。

A year ago, a bottleneck supply chain and 3 rounds of stimulus checks produced peak season shipping that started earlier than normal in August of 2021. In the current freight market, there are far fewer project and surge freight opportunities in One-Way Truckload and Logistics. Werner Logistics achieved lower operating income in third quarter compared to a very strong performance in the second quarter due to fewer premium pop-up freight opportunities, intermodal customer and market challenges and softening demand and startup cost in Final Mile. While it remains difficult to obtain new trucks and trailers, our deliveries of new trucks continued to show improvement during third quarter.

一年前，瓶頸供應鍊和 3 輪刺激檢查導致旺季運輸在 2021 年 8 月比正常情況下更早開始。在當前的貨運市場中，單程卡車和物流的項目和激增貨運機會要少得多.與第二季度非常強勁的表現相比，Werner Logistics 第三季度的營業收入有所下降，原因是優質快閃貨運機會減少、多式聯運客戶和市場挑戰以及 Final Mile 的需求和啟動成本疲軟。雖然仍然很難獲得新卡車和拖車，但我們的新卡車交付量在第三季度繼續顯示出改善。

Finally, much lower spot freight rates, record cost inflation and rapidly rising interest rates are quickly eroding small carrier cash flow. Very strong used truck pricing softened in the third quarter due to the severe challenges facing small carriers. Our equipment gains in third quarter were comparable to second quarter as we sold more trucks at a lower average gain per truck, and we sold a similar number of trailers. Now I'd like to turn the call over to John to discuss our financial results in more detail. John?

最後，低得多的即期運費、創紀錄的成本通脹和快速上升的利率正在迅速侵蝕小型承運人的現金流。由於小型承運商面臨嚴峻挑戰，非常強勁的二手卡車定價在第三季度走軟。我們在第三季度的設備收益與第二季度相當，因為我們以較低的每輛卡車平均收益銷售了更多卡車，並且我們銷售了類似數量的拖車。現在我想把電話轉給約翰來更詳細地討論我們的財務結果。約翰？

Thank you, Derek. Beginning on Slide 7. Third quarter revenues increased $125 million year-over-year and declined by $9 million sequentially. Revenues grew 18%, driven by 4% more trucks, 5% higher revenue per truck, a $50 million increase in fuel surcharges and $29 million of logistics revenue growth. Adjusted operating income increased 8% or $5.6 million. For adjusted operating income by segment, TTS grew $11 million, Logistics declined $2 million; and Corporate and other, which includes our driving schools declined $3.8 million. The year-over-year decrease was due to substantial growth in our driver training school locations and temporary issues affecting 2 school locations this quarter.

謝謝你，德里克。從幻燈片 7 開始。第三季度收入同比增長 1.25 億美元，環比下降 900 萬美元。收入增長 18%，這得益於卡車數量增加 4%、每輛卡車收入增加 5%、燃油附加費增加 5000 萬美元以及物流收入增長 2900 萬美元。調整後營業收入增長 8% 或 560 萬美元。對於按部門劃分的調整後營業收入，TTS 增長了 1100 萬美元，物流下降了 200 萬美元；公司和其他，包括我們的駕駛學校減少了 380 萬美元。同比下降是由於我們的駕駛員培訓學校地點大幅增加以及本季度影響 2 個學校地點的臨時問題。

Here on Slide 8 are the results for TTS. TTS revenues increased 18% due to 4% more trucks, 8% higher rates, higher fuel surcharges, partially offset by 3% lower miles per truck due to a 3% shorter loaded length of haul and a softer freight market. The TTS adjusted operating ratio net of fuel was 85.1%, a 90 basis point improvement year-over-year and 150 basis point improvement sequentially.

幻燈片 8 上是 TTS 的結果。由於卡車數量增加 4%、費率提高 8%、燃油附加費增加，TTS 收入增長了 18%，但部分抵消了每輛卡車減少 3% 的英里數，原因是裝載距離縮短了 3%，貨運市場疲軟。扣除燃料後的 TTS 調整後運營率為 85.1%，同比提高 90 個基點，環比提高 150 個基點。

Now let's move ahead to TTS fleet metrics for Dedicated and One-Way Truckload on Slide 9. Dedicated revenues net of fuel increased 16%, average trucks increased 6%. Revenue per truck per week increased 9.2%. One-way Truckload revenues net of fuel declined slightly as average trucks increased 1%, rate per mile increased nearly 3% and miles per truck declined 4%. The year-over-year increase in driver pay per company mile for the TTS fleet increased 8%, consistent with the 8% increase in TTS revenues per total mile. The average fleet age of our truck fleet held flat sequentially and increased [2/10] of a year compared to third quarter a year ago. Operating a slightly older fleet than we would like in an inflationary market, increases our supplies and maintenance costs, which were up 19% year-over-year.

現在讓我們繼續討論幻燈片 9 上專用和單程卡車負載的 TTS 車隊指標。扣除燃料的專用收入增加了 16%，平均卡車增加了 6%。每輛卡車每週的收入增長了 9.2%。扣除燃料後的單程卡車收入略有下降，因為平均卡車增加了 1%，每英里費率增加了近 3%，每輛卡車的英里數下降了 4%。 TTS 車隊每公司英里的司機薪酬同比增長 8%，與每總英里 TTS 收入增長 8% 一致。與去年第三季度相比，我們卡車車隊的平均車隊年齡環比持平並增加了 [2/10]。在通貨膨脹的市場中，運營比我們希望的稍舊的機隊會增加我們的供應和維護成本，同比增長 19%。

On Slide 10, let me provide an update on our durable and resilient Dedicated fleet. In Dedicated, we provide trucks, trailers and drivers exclusively for specific customers typically for a retail distribution center or a manufacturing plant. Werner is one of the 4 largest Dedicated fleets in the U.S. Werner Dedicated serves customers with extremely high service and safety requirements typically executing shorter length of haul shipments in local and regional markets. The superior consistency and reliability of our dedicated on-time service provides our customers with high predictability for their inventory to help them avoid out-of-stock surprises for their customers. Our dedicated fleet has steadily grown over the last 10 years with a customer retention rate of over 95%. 4 of our 5 largest customers have been in our top 5 for the last 10 years, highlighting the long-term relationship nature of Werner Dedicated. Nearly 2/3 of our Dedicated business is in retail, and 2/3 of that business is with discount and dollar store retailers.

在幻燈片 10 上，讓我提供有關我們耐用且有彈性的專用機隊的最新信息。在 Dedicated 中，我們專門為零售配送中心或製造工廠的特定客戶提供卡車、拖車和司機。 Werner 是美國 4 大 Dedicated 車隊之一。Werner Dedicated 為具有極高服務和安全要求的客戶提供服務，通常在本地和區域市場執行較短距離的運輸。我們專注的準時服務的卓越一致性和可靠性為我們的客戶提供了高度可預測的庫存，幫助他們避免給客戶帶來的缺貨意外。我們的專用車隊在過去 10 年中穩步增長，客戶保留率超過 95%。在過去 10 年中，我們 5 個最大的客戶中有 4 個一直在我們的前 5 名之列，這凸顯了 Werner Dedicated 的長期合作關係。我們近 2/3 的 Dedicated 業務是零售業務，其中 2/3 是折扣店和一元店零售商。

Historically, these discount retail customers performed much better than their retail competitors in slower-growth economies when shoppers have less discretionary income to spend and as they look to trade down for value to get the most for their money. Another 1/6 of our Dedicated revenues are with food and beverage companies that ship consumable staples with high on-time service requirements. Historically, food, soft drinks and alcohol products are much more recession-proof than discretionary products.

從歷史上看，這些折扣零售客戶在增長較慢的經濟體中的表現要好於他們的零售競爭對手，當時購物者的可支配收入較少，並且他們希望通過降價交易來獲得最大的價值。我們專用收入的另外 1/6 來自食品和飲料公司，這些公司運送具有高準時服務要求的消費品。從歷史上看，食品、軟飲料和酒類產品比非必需品更能抵禦衰退。

Our Dedicated business is more stable and predictable because of the high service requirements and relatively consistent freight volumes, dedicated revenue per truck has less variability and this metric has increased 7 of the last 8 years. As a result of these factors, Werner Dedicated operates with more attractive and less variable operating margins in good and bad economies. During the last trucking freight recession in 2019 compared to 2018, our dedicated revenue per truck per week growth remained positive. Regardless of where the freight market goes from here, the size, strength and customer base of our Dedicated fleet is durable and resilient and places us in a strong competitive position.

由於高服務要求和相對穩定的貨運量，我們的專用業務更加穩定和可預測，每輛卡車的專用收入變化較小，並且該指標在過去 8 年中增加了 7 年。由於這些因素，Werner Dedicated 在好的和壞的經濟中都以更具吸引力和更少可變的營業利潤率運營。與 2018 年相比，在 2019 年上一次卡車貨運衰退期間，我們每週每輛卡車的專用收入增長仍然為正。無論貨運市場從何而來，我們專用車隊的規模、實力和客戶群都是持久且有彈性的，使我們處於強大的競爭地位。

Moving to Werner Logistics on Slide 11. In third quarter, Logistics revenues grew 18% and compared to 44% growth in second quarter. Truckload Logistics revenues increased 4%, driven by a 6% increase in shipments, partially offset by a 3% decrease in revenues per shipment. As a result of the softening freight market, premium priced pop-up loads declined 50% year-over-year and 37% sequentially. At the same time, our domestic power-only solution continues to gain traction and achieved revenue growth of 118% year-over-year and 13% sequentially. Contract loads increased 21% year-over-year and 17% sequentially. Year-over-year, transactional loads were up 5%, while revenue per load declined 8%, due principally to the reduction in pop-up transactional volume. The decline in pop-up business is expected to have a larger impact on logistics revenues and operating income in fourth quarter compared to third quarter.

轉到幻燈片 11 上的 Werner Logistics。第三季度，物流收入增長了 18%，而第二季度增長了 44%。貨車物流收入增長 4%，出貨量增長 6%，部分被每次出貨收入下降 3% 所抵消。由於貨運市場疲軟，溢價快閃貨量同比下降 50%，環比下降 37%。與此同時，我們的國內純電源解決方案繼續受到關注，收入同比增長 118%，環比增長 13%。合同負荷同比增長 21%，環比增長 17%。與去年同期相比，交易負載增長了 5%，而每負載收入下降了 8%，這主要是由於彈出窗口交易量的減少。與第三季度相比，快閃店業務的下滑預計將對第四季度的物流收入和營業收入產生更大的影響。

Intermodal revenues grew 10%, supported by a 37% increase in revenues per shipment, offset by a 23% decline in shipments. Declines at customer awarded business and lower volumes with existing customers caused the decrease. Final Mile revenues increased $21 million, slowing demand for discretionary products and start-up costs for new business implementation weighed on our Final Mile operating income sequentially. Logistics produced adjusted operating income of $5.6 million, down $2 million year-over-year and $7.4 million sequentially.

多式聯運收入增長 10%，這得益於每批貨物收入增長 37%，但被出貨量下降 23% 所抵消。客戶授予業務的下降和現有客戶的銷量下降導致了下降。 Final Mile 收入增加了 2100 萬美元，對可自由支配產品的需求放緩以及新業務實施的啟動成本連續拖累了我們的 Final Mile 營業收入。物流產生調整後營業收入 560 萬美元，同比下降 200 萬美元，環比下降 740 萬美元。

On Slide 12 is a summary of our cash flow from operations, net capital expenditures and free cash flow over the past 5 years, expanded operating margins and less variable net CapEx resulted in higher free cash flow over the last 5 years compared to the previous 5 years. Year-to-date, net CapEx is $254 million.

幻燈片 12 總結了我們過去 5 年的運營現金流、淨資本支出和自由現金流，擴大的營業利潤率和更少的可變淨資本支出導致過去 5 年的自由現金流高於前 5 年年。年初至今，淨資本支出為 2.54 億美元。

On Slide 13 is our capital allocation update. Our first priority for capital continues to be reinvesting in our fleet. During third quarter, we purchased 215,000 shares for $8.3 million. We remain committed to maintaining a strong and flexible financial position and ended the quarter with a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 0.7x, and we continue to evaluate acquisitions in North America truckload and logistics that are both additive to our business and accretive to our earnings. That concludes my remarks, and now I'll turn it back over to Derek to talk more about our acquisitions.

幻燈片 13 是我們的資本配置更新。我們的首要資本繼續是對我們的機隊進行再投資。第三季度，我們以 830 萬美元的價格購買了 215,000 股股票。我們仍然致力於保持強大而靈活的財務狀況，本季度末淨債務與 EBITDA 之比為 0.7 倍，我們繼續評估北美卡車和物流的收購，這些收購既增加了我們的業務，又增加了我們的收入。我的發言到此結束，現在我將把它轉回 Derek 來談談我們的收購。

Thank you, John. Moving to Slide 15. Over the last 16 months, we carefully researched, analyzed, negotiated and executed 3 strategic acquisitions within our core business units. We have stringent criteria for what we are looking for in acquisition candidates. It must be additive to our business and therefore, must be complementary to our existing portfolio, either in geography or services. It needs to have superior service and a safety culture similar to our own and it must be accretive to our earnings. We are remaining disciplined and we are searching for companies with strong management teams that we expect to retain with a company culture that has demonstrated a high focus for valuing its professional drivers, carriers, associates and customers.

謝謝你，約翰。轉到幻燈片 15。在過去的 16 個月裡，我們仔細研究、分析、談判並執行了核心業務部門內的 3 項戰略收購。我們對收購候選人的要求有嚴格的標準。它必須對我們的業務有所補充，因此必須與我們現有的產品組合相輔相成，無論是在地理上還是在服務上。它需要有優質的服務和類似於我們自己的安全文化，並且它必須增加我們的收入。我們保持紀律嚴明，我們正在尋找擁有強大管理團隊的公司，我們希望這些公司保留一種公司文化，這種文化已經表現出高度重視其專業司機、承運人、員工和客戶的價值。

Turning to recent transactions, we are pleased to share that both the ECM regional truckload acquisition and the NEHDS Final Mile acquisition that we acquired last year have exceeded our expectations. ECM is very profitable, serving the challenging and densely populated Northeast freight markets with a superior driver base. NEHDS is integrated seamlessly with our existing Final Mile network to produce a compelling home delivery model that is resonating with our customers. We are beginning to grow with new dedicated Final Mile business with both existing customers and new customers alike. And we are extremely proud and excited to bring the 76th year history of impeccable service and safety of Baylor Trucking to Werner. Baylor met all our strategic touch points. Great service, outstanding drivers and associates, similar company cultures and an experienced leadership team that we wanted to retain.

談到最近的交易，我們很高興地分享我們去年收購的 ECM 區域卡車收購和 NEHDS Final Mile 收購都超出了我們的預期。 ECM 利潤豐厚，以卓越的司機基礎服務於充滿挑戰且人口稠密的東北貨運市場。 NEHDS 與我們現有的 Final Mile 網絡無縫集成，產生了一種引人注目的送貨上門模式，引起了我們客戶的共鳴。我們開始與現有客戶和新客戶開展新的專用 Final Mile 業務發展。我們非常自豪和興奮地將 Baylor Trucking 擁有 76 年無可挑剔的服務和安全性的歷史帶給 Werner。貝勒滿足了我們所有的戰略接觸點。優質的服務、出色的司機和員工、相似的公司文化以及我們希望保留的經驗豐富的領導團隊。

Baylor brings additional freight diversity with its many years of experience in customer base in the specialized markets of pharmaceuticals and expedited deliveries. One month in, we are already identifying and implementing opportunities to make Werner and Baylor better together. We have strengthened and further refined our acquisition process from qualifying and researching acquisition candidates to quickly integrating the company with Werner to realize synergies. We will continue to carefully search and remain disciplined to identify additive acquisitions in truckload and logistics that make us better and are accretive to earnings.

Baylor 憑藉其在藥品專業市場和快速交付方面多年的客戶群經驗，帶來了額外的貨運多樣性。一個月後，我們已經確定並實施了讓維爾納和貝勒更好地合作的機會。我們加強並進一步完善了我們的收購流程，從確定和研究收購候選人到快速將公司與 Werner 整合以實現協同效應。我們將繼續仔細搜索並保持紀律，以確定卡車和物流領域的附加收購，這些收購可以使我們變得更好並增加收益。

Now on Slide 16, I wanted to spend some time on our ESG developments. In September, we issued our CSR update report to show our progress for our ESG goals and initiatives. The report is available at werner.com in the Investors section under ESG. We announced the pilot project with Kodiak Robotics to test their autonomous truck technology. We signed a letter of intent to purchase up to 500 Cummins’ 15-liter hydrogen engines when they become commercially available. During the quarter, we finalized an agreement with Remora to install and test the decarbonization cell on a Werner truck. And to strengthen and better formalized our ESG data and reporting, we subscribed to a Salesforce/Workiva tech solution.

現在在幻燈片 16 上，我想花一些時間在我們的 ESG 發展上。 9 月，我們發布了 CSR 更新報告，以展示我們在 ESG 目標和舉措方面取得的進展。該報告可在 werner.com 的 ESG 下的投資者部分獲取。我們宣布了與 Kodiak Robotics 的試點項目，以測試他們的自動駕駛卡車技術。我們簽署了購買多達 500 台康明斯 15 升氫發動機的意向書，當它們上市時。本季度，我們與 Remora 達成協議，在 Werner 卡車上安裝和測試脫碳單元。為了加強和更好地規範我們的 ESG 數據和報告，我們訂閱了 Salesforce/Workiva 技術解決方案。

Now let's move ahead to Slide 17 and a review of our performance compared to our 2022 guidance. Year-to-date, our TTS truck fleet increased 3%, primarily in Dedicated. With the Baylor acquisition of 200 trucks on October 1, this raised our year-to-date truck growth to 5%. Including the acquired trucks, we expect our end-of-year truck count to be 100 to 200 trucks higher than the 8,580 at the end of third quarter. Therefore, we anticipate our full year Trump growth will be in the range of 3% to 5%. Net capital expenditures for the first 9 months were $254 million. We narrowed our guidance range for full year net CapEx to a range of $300 million to $325 million. Dedicated revenue per truck per week increased 8.6% year-to-date resulting from higher customer rates to offset inflationary pressures.

現在讓我們繼續看幻燈片 17，並回顧一下我們與 2022 年指南相比的表現。年初至今，我們的 TTS 卡車車隊增加了 3%，主要是專用卡車。隨著 Baylor 在 10 月 1 日收購了 200 輛卡車，這將我們年初至今的卡車增長率提高到 5%。包括收購的卡車在內，我們預計年末卡車數量將比第三季度末的 8,580 輛多 100 至 200 輛。因此，我們預計全年特朗普增長率將在 3% 至 5% 之間。前 9 個月的淨資本支出為 2.54 億美元。我們將全年淨資本支出的指導範圍縮小至 3 億至 3.25 億美元。年初至今，每輛卡車每週的專用收入增長了 8.6%，這是由於提高客戶利率以抵消通脹壓力。

For fourth quarter, we expect this metric will grow in the range of 6% to 8%, noting we have more difficult comps in the fourth quarter. One-Way Truckload revenue per total mile for third quarter increased 2.5% as we lapped the ECM acquisition in July last year. For fourth quarter, we expect our One-Way Truckload revenues per total mile to be in a range of negative 3% to flat compared to fourth quarter a year ago. This expected range is due to moderating One-Way freight market and difficult comps with much fewer premium pricing opportunities in the fourth quarter this year compared to the same period a year ago. Our income tax rate in the third quarter and year-to-date was 24.3%. For the full year, we expect to be in the range of 24% to 24.5%. During fourth quarter, we expect the average age of our truck and trailer fleet at year-end to be 2.3 years and 5 years, respectively. One-way Truckload freight demand moderated further from second quarter to third quarter, and this trend has continued into October. Over the last few months, concern about the direction of the economy and the truckload freight market has increased.

對於第四季度，我們預計該指標將增長 6% 至 8%，並指出我們在第四季度的競爭更加困難。由於我們在去年 7 月完成了對 ECM 的收購，第三季度單程卡車每總英里的收入增長了 2.5%。對於第四季度，我們預計我們的單程卡車每總英里收入與去年第四季度相比將下降 3% 至持平。這一預期範圍是由於單程貨運市場放緩以及今年第四季度溢價定價機會比去年同期少得多的困難。我們第三季度和年初至今的所得稅率為 24.3%。對於全年，我們預計將在 24% 至 24.5% 的範圍內。在第四季度，我們預計年底卡車和拖車車隊的平均車齡分別為 2.3 年和 5 年。從第二季度到第三季度，單程卡車貨運需求進一步放緩，這一趨勢一直持續到 10 月份。在過去的幾個月裡，人們對經濟發展方向和整車貨運市場的擔憂有所增加。

Our current market view for the remainder of the year is as follows: we are expecting a subdued peak season in fourth quarter compared to a very strong peak season in fourth quarter a year ago. This means that project surge and premium transactional pricing opportunities are much more limited this peak season. We expect that industry truckload freight demand continues to moderate, more for discretionary goods and less for consumer staples. Pressure on small truckload carriers continues to intensify with lower spot rates, inflationary cost increases with older equipment, high fuel prices and rising interest rates. Pricing for industry used trucks continues to ease resulting in lower gains per truck.

我們目前對今年剩餘時間的市場看法如下：與去年第四季度非常強勁的旺季相比，我們預計第四季度的旺季將有所減弱。這意味著在這個旺季，項目激增和溢價交易定價機會更加有限。我們預計行業卡車貨運需求將繼續放緩，更多的是對非必需品的需求，對消費必需品的需求減少。小型卡車承運商的壓力繼續加劇，即期利率較低、設備陳舊導致通貨膨脹成本增加、燃油價格高企以及利率上升。工業用卡車的定價繼續放寬，導致每輛卡車的收益降低。

Inflationary cost pressures for labor, equipment and maintenance are likely to continue. Truckload capacity remains constrained as new truck build challenges continue and the driver market remains under control. And FMCSA carrier registration and deactivation data has shown net deactivations for 19 of the last 24 weeks. Lastly, I wanted to provide an update on our CFO transition plan that we discussed during our second quarter call. John remains fully engaged with his responsibilities. Our search process is progressing well. We have several strong candidates we are considering, and we will provide an update when appropriate. We are confident in our positioning with the stability of our Dedicated and One-Way Truckload freight base and our logistics segment. The proven resilience of our durable business model, our strong driver and nondriver associate team and the superior value we provide to our customers. With that, I would now like to turn the call over to our operator to begin the Q&A.

勞動力、設備和維護的通脹成本壓力可能會持續。隨著新卡車製造挑戰的持續和司機市場的控制，卡車裝載能力仍然受到限制。 FMCSA 運營商註冊和停用數據顯示，過去 24 周中有 19 週出現淨停用。最後，我想提供我們在第二季度電話會議中討論的 CFO 過渡計劃的最新情況。 John 仍然全心全意地履行職責。我們的搜索過程進展順利。我們正在考慮幾個強有力的候選人，我們將在適當的時候提供更新。我們對我們的定位充滿信心，我們的專用和單程卡車貨運基地和我們的物流部門的穩定性。我們持久的商業模式、我們強大的司機和非司機助理團隊以及我們為客戶提供的卓越價值的證明彈性。有了這個，我現在想把電話轉給我們的接線員開始問答。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question is from Bert Subin with Stifel.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Bert Subin。

Derek, maybe first question for you. We've heard a lot this earnings season about smaller carriers and the inevitable exits, but we haven't really seen spot rates rebound yet, which I think would indicate those exits are probably not happening fast enough. How do you think the next 6 months play out? And what's your viewpoint on whether or not new order activity will ultimately resume and start helping freight despite some of the concerns on the inventory side?

德里克，也許是你的第一個問題。我們在本財報季聽到了很多關於小型航空公司和不可避免的退出的消息，但我們還沒有真正看到即期運價反彈，我認為這表明這些退出的速度可能不夠快。您如何看待接下來的 6 個月？儘管存在庫存方面的一些擔憂，您對新訂單活動最終是否會恢復並開始幫助貨運有何看法？

Yes. So great question. First off, I'll point you back to some of the comments in the opening remarks. But 19 out of the last 24 weeks, we've seen net deactivations, meaning more companies turning in their DOT number versus new registrants coming on board. We've -- more importantly, I'd say, over the last 4 weeks, we've seen a very sudden and noticeable increase in the quantity of those deactivations, especially at the truck count level. So you're seeing 3,500 to 4,000 trucks a week kind of net coming in and out of the market. And so we think that, that is really starting to gain momentum. There's also 2 primary months in the year where every year, there's always a big uptick in it, and one is June and one is December. And so as we look into fourth quarter and you think about the nearly unanimous commentary on a muted peak season with the backdrop of high fuel, high insurance, high labor and rising interest rates, I think you're going to see an increase that will kind of accelerate the process that's already underway.

是的。這麼好的問題。首先，我將向您指出開場白中的一些評論。但是在過去的 24 周中有 19 週，我們看到了淨停用，這意味著更多的公司上交了他們的 DOT 編號，而不是新註冊者加入。我們 - 更重要的是，我想說，在過去的 4 周里，我們看到停用的數量突然和明顯增加，特別是在卡車數量層面。所以你看到每周有 3,500 到 4,000 輛卡車進出市場。所以我們認為，這真的開始獲得動力。一年中還有 2 個主要月份，每年都會有很大的上漲，一個是 6 月，一個是 12 月。因此，當我們展望第四季度時，你會想到在高燃料、高保險、高勞動力和利率上升的背景下對旺季幾乎無聲的評論，我認為你會看到增長某種程度上加速了已經在進行的過程。

It's hard to exactly predict when we think that, that reaches equilibrium. But if you look back over the last several cycles in a row, we look back 4 or 5 cycles, and you see kind of a trend line that spot from peak to trough is, call it, 15 to 17 months, and we're kind of at that time now as it relates to what we're seeing in the market. So I think we're close to bottom, if not at bottom currently. And that's only going to exacerbate the problem because it's clearly below many people's operating costs. And the last comment, I guess, I would make is in conversations I've had across fuel networks in America. They're certainly seeing a rise in delinquencies. And when it starts showing up at the fuel pump level, which is something obviously you have to run that next load, it's real. And I think that is only going to grow as we go forward as well.

很難準確預測我們認為什麼時候達到平衡。但是如果你連續回顧過去的幾個週期，我們回顧 4 或 5 個週期，你會看到一條趨勢線，從高峰到低谷，稱之為 15 到 17 個月，我們是有點像現在，因為它與我們在市場上看到的有關。所以我認為我們已經接近底部，如果目前還沒有底部的話。這只會加劇問題，因為它顯然低於許多人的運營成本。最後的評論，我想，我會在我在美國的燃料網絡中進行的對話中發表。他們肯定會看到拖欠率上升。當它開始出現在燃油泵水平時，這顯然是你必須運行下一個負載的東西，它是真實的。而且我認為這只會隨著我們的前進而增長。

Super helpful commentary, Derek. And maybe just a follow-up, more sort of relevant to your business. Dedicated seems to be holding up really well despite all of this commentary around softening of freight. What do you think is the Baylor case for Dedicated, do you see sort of revenue per truck per week trend more in the flattish instead of growing and then volumes soften. I know that's not what you're guiding to. I'm just curious what you think sort of if things went poorly, how would Dedicated hold up?

超級有用的評論，德里克。也許只是跟進，與您的業務更相關。儘管所有這些評論都圍繞運費走軟，但 Dedicated 的表現似乎非常好。您如何看待 Baylor 的 Dedicated 案例，您是否看到每輛卡車每週的收入趨於平穩而不是增長，然後銷量疲軟。我知道那不是你要指導的。我只是想知道如果事情進展不順利，你會怎麼想，Dedicated 會怎樣？

Yes. I mean, again, looking back at a couple of prior cycles and really looking at the last 8 years, I mean, Dedicated, based on the type of business we do, how difficult it is to accomplish, how defensible it is because of its complexity, we've seen an environment where the type of customers we work with, that are winning in their space is continuing to grow even during recessionary times, they need those fleets. And so -- they've been supportive of the inflationary pressures that are out there. I'm not guiding that we're going to see major increases to use your question or to frame it in the terms of your question, Baylor case, I think we slow the growth in Dedicated and we become more prudent and more picky on what we -- what gets through. And you don't see the momentum perhaps on truck growth that you've seen in recent years. But I think from a overall profile and how it runs, the ability and dedicated to have those one-on-one relationships with long-term customers with 4 out of the top 5 being with us for greater than 10 years, we've been through some cycles together.

是的。我的意思是，再次回顧之前的幾個週期，真正回顧過去 8 年，我的意思是，專注，基於我們所做的業務類型，完成它的難度，它的防禦性，因為它複雜性，我們已經看到了這樣一種環境，在這種環境中，與我們合作的客戶類型在他們的領域中獲勝，即使在經濟衰退時期也在持續增長，他們需要這些車隊。因此——他們一直支持現有的通脹壓力。我並沒有指導我們會看到使用你的問題或根據你的問題來構建它的重大增長，Baylor 案例，我認為我們減緩了 Dedicated 的增長，我們變得更加謹慎和挑剔我們 - 通過什麼。而且你可能看不到近年來卡車增長的勢頭。但我認為，從整體概況及其運作方式、與長期客戶建立一對一關係的能力和專注度來看，前 5 名中有 4 名與我們合作超過 10 年，我們一直一起經歷一些循環。

And there's history there on trust, and we'll work with them diligently to continue to deliver the high service expectations they have. And as you started the question, I'll just reiterate you're right, Dedicated has performed very well and continues to perform very well. Our expectation is that it will continue to be the core of this portfolio as we go forward, and we think that positions us well during this turn.

那裡有信任的歷史，我們將努力與他們合作，繼續提供他們對服務的高期望。當你開始這個問題時，我會重申你是對的，Dedicated 表現非常好並且會繼續表現得很好。我們的期望是，在我們前進的過程中，它將繼續成為該產品組合的核心，並且我們認為這將使我們在這一轉變中處於有利地位。

The next question is from Brian Ossenbeck with JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Brian Ossenbeck。

Maybe a strategic one for you, Derek, just as we get into more bid season and that sort of cycle coming up. I think a couple of quarters ago, you mentioned about these partnerships you're looking to do longer-term, maybe the third tier between One-Way and Dedicated. Can you give us an update on that in terms of how those are progressing, if any this year? And what your expectations are for next year as well?

也許對你來說是一個戰略性的，德里克，就像我們進入更多的投標季節和那種週期即將到來一樣。我想幾個季度前，你提到了你希望建立長期合作夥伴關係，也許是單向和專用之間的第三層。如果今年有進展，您能否向我們介紹一下進展情況？您對明年的期望是什麼？

Yes. So we've been working on this for several years. It wasn't just a couple of quarter initiative. You're right, we brought it up recently. And I would tell you it's progressing nicely. If you look at our Dedicated business, by and large, in its entirety, it's kind of a multiyear longer-term relationship with stickier characteristics, et cetera. On the One-Way side, we're up to approximately 1/4 of our one-way business is now tied up into kind of LTAs or long-term agreements with a variety of different mechanisms and guardrails put in place around those. Those are again our alignment with strategic customers that we're -- believe we have long-term futures with and they believe the same. We will continue to fulfill our end of those bargains, we'll expect that they do the same and have conversations if there's variances. But I'm pretty excited, to be frank, going into what is clearly a slowing economy because we haven't been set up like that previously. We haven't had this percentage of our fleet of 63% now in Dedicated in prior turns.

是的。所以我們多年來一直致力於此。這不僅僅是幾個季度的倡議。你說得對，我們最近提出來了。我會告訴你它進展順利。如果你看一下我們的 Dedicated 業務，總的來說，它是一種多年的長期關係，具有更粘性的特徵，等等。在單向方面，我們大約有 1/4 的單向業務現在與 LTA 或長期協議相關聯，並圍繞這些協議設置了各種不同的機制和護欄。這些再次是我們與我們的戰略客戶的一致——相信我們有長期的未來，他們也相信。我們將繼續履行我們對這些交易的承諾，我們希望他們也這樣做，並在出現分歧時進行對話。但坦率地說，我很興奮進入明顯放緩的經濟，因為我們以前沒有像那樣建立過。在之前的回合中，我們的艦隊中 63% 的比例現在還沒有達到專用模式。

We haven't had the amount of our One-Way fleet is engineered as it is today, and we certainly haven't had key agreements with key customers winning in their verticals that add up to kind of 25% roughly of that entire One-Way network. So it's still going to be a tougher time as we look forward. We know the economy is slowing and there's some pressure out there on inventory levels and other items. But I like our positioning to get through this and come out the other end even stronger for it.

我們的單向機隊數量沒有像今天這樣設計，而且我們當然還沒有與關鍵客戶達成關鍵協議，這些客戶在他們的垂直領域贏得了大約整個單向機隊的 25%-路網。因此，正如我們所期待的那樣，這仍將是一段艱難的時期。我們知道經濟正在放緩，庫存水平和其他項目存在一些壓力。但我喜歡我們的定位來度過難關，並在另一端變得更加強大。

Great. John, maybe a quick follow-up. As you look at the fourth quarter typically seasonally stronger, obviously, not the case this year for all the comments that you mentioned. I wanted to see if you can give us some context on how to think about this quarterly progression relative to seasonality? And if you expect any sort of gains in there as well or if that's going to tail off because it looks like expectations might be a little bit too high, given all what you said here today.

偉大的。約翰，也許可以快速跟進。當你看到第四季度通常季節性更強時，顯然，對於你提到的所有評論，今年情況並非如此。我想看看您是否可以給我們一些背景信息，說明如何考慮相對於季節性的季度進展？如果你期望那裡也有任何收益，或者如果它會減少，因為看起來期望可能有點過高，考慮到你今天在這裡所說的一切。

Yes, Brian. Typically, third to fourth quarter, there is an improvement in earnings that occurs. Last year, there was a very sizable increase, it was up 43% from third to fourth quarter because we had a significant number of projects, surge and special pricing opportunities that occurred during the quarter last year. And it's a very subdued, more muted peak season this year. We expect some peak season opportunities, but not nearly at the level that we saw last year. We expect premium pricing opportunities to be down 60% to 70% in fourth quarter compared to where they were a year ago. So as a result, we're not expecting a significant improvement from third to fourth quarter because of that environment, but the strength of our Dedicated business should help us there. We -- it's too difficult to predict from a guidance standpoint on how it will trend, but we don't expect a typical increase from third to fourth quarter.

是的，布萊恩。通常，在第三至第四季度，收益會有所改善。去年，增長非常可觀，從第三季度到第四季度增長了 43%，因為我們在去年第四季度有大量項目、激增和特殊定價機會。今年是一個非常低調、更加柔和的旺季。我們預計會有一些旺季機會，但不會接近去年的水平。我們預計第四季度保費定價機會將比去年同期下降 60% 至 70%。因此，由於這種環境，我們預計第三季度到第四季度不會有顯著改善，但我們專用業務的實力應該會幫助我們實現這一目標。我們 - 從指導的角度預測它的趨勢太難了，但我們預計第三季度到第四季度不會出現典型增長。

Next question is from Jack Atkins with Stephens.

下一個問題來自 Jack Atkins 和 Stephens。

Okay. Great. So I guess, Derek, going back to your earlier comments around the longer-term sort of nature of a lot of your business, whether it's Dedicated or some of these longer-term commitments, how do you think about being able to get inflationary sort of cost increases through with that? Do you have mechanisms in those contracts to be able to do that? Because I would imagine over the next several quarters, it's going to be pretty tough from a cost perspective.

好的。偉大的。所以我想，Derek，回到你之前關於你的很多業務的長期性質的評論，無論是 Dedicated 還是其中一些長期承諾，你如何看待能夠獲得通貨膨脹類型成本增加了嗎？你在這些合同中有能夠做到這一點的機制嗎？因為我可以想像在接下來的幾個季度裡，從成本的角度來看，這將非常艱難。

Yes. Clearly, Jack, it's going to be -- there will be cost pressures as we go through the next several quarters, we know that inflation is kind of something that every company in America is dealing with up and down the P&L. We won't be sheltered from some of those pressures. Our goal is to work with our customers, which we are already doing and Dedicated have seen good responsiveness from them around the reality that in order to deliver the kind of service we do, and at the levels that we delivered at that we need their support. They've signed up for that through prior trends. We expect it to have similar consistency through this one and be able to offset those pressures on One-Way. It's a little different, but there is some tailwinds mixed in with all of this other news, Mexico, we are seeing some resilience out of Mexico right now and some growth in that Mexico cross-border business. That's more productive longer length of haul, opportunities that allow us to gain back some things that maybe doesn't always come through rate.

是的。很明顯，傑克，未來幾個季度將會出現成本壓力，我們知道通貨膨脹是美國每家公司都在處理損益表的問題。我們不會免受其中一些壓力的影響。我們的目標是與我們的客戶合作，我們已經在這樣做了，Dedicated 已經看到他們對現實的良好響應，即為了提供我們所做的服務，以及我們提供的水平，我們需要他們的支持.他們已經通過先前的趨勢註冊了。我們希望它通過這個具有類似的一致性，並能夠抵消單向的那些壓力。有點不同，但有一些順風與所有其他消息混合在一起，墨西哥，我們現在看到墨西哥的一些彈性和墨西哥跨境業務的一些增長。更長的運輸時間更有成效，機會使我們能夠重新獲得一些可能並不總是通過費率獲得的東西。

We are increasing the percentage of our fleet that's operating in a team environment. We always do that this time of year going into peak, but we're doing that and looking to hold that as it relates to an offset to production. We're going to continue to work with our customers, and we're seeing some decongestion as they get more normalized in their operation that we hope to be able to leverage into some help on the P&L from a production standpoint as well. So there's going to be puts and takes. It's going to be difficult. We are very confident that we'll be well within the ranges we've been guiding to relative to overall margins. Certainly, One-Way, we'll have more pressure on it than Dedicated.

我們正在增加在團隊環境中運營的車隊的百分比。我們總是在每年的這個時候達到峰值，但我們正在這樣做並希望保持它，因為它與生產的抵消有關。我們將繼續與我們的客戶合作，隨著他們的運營更加規範化，我們看到了一些緩解，我們希望能夠從生產的角度對損益表提供一些幫助。所以會有放和需要。這會很困難。我們非常有信心，我們將完全處於我們一直指導的相對於整體利潤率的範圍內。當然，One-Way，我們對它的壓力會比 Dedicated 更大。

And it's going to be something we just kind of labor through customer by customer, agreement by agreement. And we're going to be prudent and rational about the size of the fleet. I mean, I should point that out as well. We know with the market that we're going into that it's not a time that you're going to see us leaning in heavy on truck growth. And instead, we're going to be very prudent on that we do business with and under what terms.

這將是我們逐個客戶、逐個協議地進行勞動的事情。我們將對機隊的規模保持謹慎和理性。我的意思是，我也應該指出這一點。我們知道我們正在進入的市場，現在不是你會看到我們嚴重依賴卡車增長的時候。相反，我們將非常謹慎地處理我們的業務往來以及在何種條件下開展業務。

Okay. Okay. Got it. And then I guess maybe, John, a question for you on the issues you guys had with the driver schools in the third quarter. Are those issues behind you? Can you maybe give a little bit more color on what exactly was sort of the challenge there. And I would just kind of appreciate some additional color there.

好的。好的。知道了。然後我想也許，約翰，關於你們在第三季度與駕駛學校的問題的問題。這些問題在你身後嗎？你能不能更詳細地說明那裡的挑戰到底是什麼？我只是有點欣賞那裡的一些額外顏色。

Okay. Thanks, Jack. Yes. On previous calls, we've talked about the investments that we've made in facilities and personnel and equipment at the driving schools. If you remember back to the end of 2020, we had 13 schools. And by the time we get to the end of first quarter '22, we were up to 22 schools. We felt like we needed to vertically integrate our school network to help with a very, very difficult driver market and so we accomplished that. Our driver training school team did a really great job establishing the new schools to produce high-quality driver training in markets that are targeted to expand our capacity, so the right geography.

好的。謝謝，傑克。是的。在之前的電話中，我們談到了我們在駕校的設施、人員和設備方面的投資。如果您還記得 2020 年底，我們有 13 所學校。到 22 年第一季度末時，我們的學校多達 22 所。我們覺得我們需要垂直整合我們的學校網絡，以幫助應對非常非常困難的司機市場，因此我們實現了這一目標。我們的駕駛員培訓學校團隊在建立新學校方面做得非常出色，可以在市場上提供高質量的駕駛員培訓，旨在擴大我們的能力，從而擴大我們的地理位置。

Our school network is really one of the crown jewels at Werner. We're really proud of what they've achieved. During the first typically 12 to 18 months of developing a new school location, they're typically not profitable and they gradually improved their financial results over time. And lastly, I'd say we had a couple of school locations this quarter that had some temporary issues that we're working through about $0.01 a share impact. Those are nonrecurring and don't expect we'll -- will occur going forward.

我們的學校網絡確實是 Werner 皇冠上的明珠之一。我們為他們所取得的成就感到非常自豪。在開發新校址的最初 12 到 18 個月內，他們通常沒有盈利，但隨著時間的推移，他們的財務業績逐漸改善。最後，我想說本季度我們有幾個學校地點存在一些臨時問題，我們正在努力解決每股約 0.01 美元的影響。這些是非經常性的，不要指望我們會 - 會在未來發生。

The only thing I'd add to that, it's to a much lesser extent, but we did have, in total, 5 schools impacted for days, not weeks. So it's not a major issue, but nonetheless, impacted in the quarter as it related to Hurricane Ian.

我唯一要補充的是，它的影響程度要小得多，但我們總共有 5 所學校受到了幾天而不是幾週的影響。所以這不是一個主要問題，但儘管如此，它在本季度受到了影響，因為它與颶風伊恩有關。

Okay. Okay. That makes sense as well, Derek and John.

好的。好的。這也有道理，德里克和約翰。

The next question is from Scott Group with Wolfe Research.

下一個問題來自 Scott Group 和 Wolfe Research。

Just want to clarify, any commentary around gains for Q4? And then Derek, your comments about capacity exiting the market. Any numbers you can share on the brokerage side about we had x number of carriers in the broker network in Q2 and now it's down to x number in Q3 or anything like that?

只是想澄清一下，關於第四季度收益的任何評論？然後是 Derek，你對產能退出市場的評論。您可以在經紀方面分享關於我們在第二季度的經紀網絡中有 x 數量的運營商的任何數字，現在它在第三季度下降到 x 數量或類似的東西？

Yes. So I mean, I'll start on the gains side, gains are clearly moderating, but at the same time, OEM deliveries are starting to arrive with a little more consistency. So we're not giving a gain guidance for Q4. But I think directionally, what you'll see is the opportunity for us to perhaps have slightly higher volume with slightly lower gains that may approximate about the run rate we've been at, and that would probably be best case. The OEM thing is way too much to bet on just at this point. I can't commit that we're going to see all of those trucks arrive and so therefore, I can't commit to a gain number still. But I can tell you that the process is still functioning well.

是的。所以我的意思是，我將從收益方面開始，收益明顯放緩，但與此同時，OEM 交付開始以更加一致的方式到達。所以我們沒有為第四季度提供增益指導。但我認為方向性的是，你會看到我們有機會獲得略高的成交量和略低的收益，這可能接近我們一直以來的運行率，這可能是最好的情況。在這一點上，OEM 的事情太多了，不能下注。我不能保證我們會看到所有這些卡車都到達，因此，我仍然不能保證收益數字。但我可以告訴你，這個過程仍然運作良好。

We're still moving equipment as we receive, and we still have buyers that are interested and available. The other reality is we get this new equipment in as it gives us an opportunity on the maintenance line to start to get the fleet operating both from an uptime perspective but also just overall maintenance costs by getting the fleet over the next several quarters refreshed. So that would be my thoughts on gains. Scott, I apologize, the second part of the question.

我們仍在移動收到的設備，我們仍然有感興趣且有空的買家。另一個現實是我們獲得了這種新設備，因為它讓我們有機會在維護線上開始讓車隊從正常運行時間的角度開始運營，而且通過在接下來的幾個季度更新車隊來降低整體維護成本。這就是我對收益的看法。斯科特，我很抱歉，問題的第二部分。

Yes. You were just talking about capacity.

是的。你只是在談論容量。

Yes, I remember. Yes. So on the brokerage count, I mean, it's a tough -- that's a tough metric to crack for us because the combination of the growth we're seeing in power only as well as the overall the strategy that we're taking within our carrier network, we're adding carriers all the time. And so yes, we can see carriers that perhaps were in the network that now are not, but aggregate numbers are still growing because of the level of recruitment that we're putting into setting ourselves up for long-term. I mean I do believe that regardless of where we are at with the subdued fourth quarter, it's my belief this cycle is shorter in duration and less severe than what we've seen in others. And so we want to be prepared and ready coming out the other end with to hit the ground running.

是的，我記得。是的。因此，在經紀業務方面，我的意思是，這很難——這對我們來說是一個很難破解的指標，因為我們看到的增長與我們在運營商內部採取的整體戰略相結合網絡，我們一直在添加運營商。所以是的，我們可以看到現在可能不在網絡中的承運人，但由於我們為長期發展而投入的招聘水平，總數仍在增長。我的意思是，我確實相信，無論我們在第四季度的表現如何，我相信這個週期的持續時間更短，也沒有我們在其他地方看到的那麼嚴重。因此，我們要做好準備，準備好從另一端開始行動。

Okay. And then just one big picture question. In a typical downturn in trucking, we don't see much cost inflation. It feels like we will see cost -- continued cost inflation into next year. So is there just a risk that from a -- if costs are up and rates are down, it's just -- it ends up being just more of a severe correction in margin than we typically see? Or is that just too negative of an outcome?

好的。然後只是一個大問題。在卡車運輸的典型低迷時期，我們看不到太多的成本膨脹。感覺我們會看到成本——明年成本持續上漲。那麼，是否存在這樣一種風險——如果成本上升而利率下降，那麼它最終會比我們通常看到的更嚴重的利潤率調整？還是結果太消極了？

Well, I think it's a matter of perspective, right? So from my perspective, especially at the small carrier level, you've got a larger swap than normal who purchased equipment at higher cost than any time in history, who are faced with rising interest rates at a more rapid rate than any recent history for sure. And a volatile fuel environment as a backdrop with a spot market that is 37% of its peak. So for that population of folks, it's not a great time to be a trucker. And I think that's where I have some confidence that this correction happens more rapidly.

好吧，我認為這是一個視角問題，對吧？因此，從我的角度來看，尤其是在小型運營商層面，你有比正常人更大的掉期，他們以比歷史上任何時候都高的成本購買設備，他們面臨著比最近歷史上任何時候都更快的利率上升當然。以現貨市場為峰值的 37% 為背景的不穩定燃料環境。所以對於那群人來說，現在不是當卡車司機的好時機。我認為這就是我有信心認為這種修正會更快發生的地方。

Now on a large carrier level, we'll still have inflationary pressures, and we're still going to try to manage cost out of the system to help offset them as well as work with our customers, especially in these longer-term relationships, which is the bulk of our asset portfolio. And I think the outcome of all of that on a net basis is we come out the other end looking better, stronger and with the potential deeper entrenched relationship with our customers and within our network. So I'm not trying to make lemonades out of lemons, but I am trying to express that this turn is an opportunity for high-performing fleets to really distance themselves further, and that is certainly my expectation here.

現在在大型運營商層面，我們仍然會面臨通貨膨脹壓力，我們仍將嘗試管理系統之外的成本以幫助抵消它們並與我們的客戶合作，特別是在這些長期關係中，這是我們資產組合的大部分。而且我認為所有這些的結果在淨基礎上是我們在另一端看起來更好，更強大並且與我們的客戶和我們的網絡內的潛在更深的根深蒂固的關係。所以我不是想用檸檬做檸檬水，但我想表達的是，這一轉變是高性能艦隊真正進一步拉開距離的機會，這當然是我在這裡的期望。

Next question is from Todd Fowler with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Todd Fowler。

Derek, maybe if you could talk philosophically how you plan to address contract renewals and One-Way truckload I don't know if you want to share a range because there's many constituents on the call, but in this environment where it feels like spot rates have come down significantly, contract pricing has held in the same context where spot rates may start to strengthen later in '23, just how do you think about the bid season? Or what are some of the things you can share with us about the approach to bids as they come up in One-Way truckload?

德里克，也許你可以從哲學上談談你打算如何解決合同續籤和單程卡車運輸問題我不知道你是否想分享一個範圍，因為電話會議上有很多成員，但在這種感覺像是即期匯率的環境中已經顯著下降，合同定價在 23 世紀後期現貨價格可能開始走強的情況下保持不變，您如何看待投標季節？或者您可以與我們分享關於單程卡車運輸中出現的投標方法的一些事情？

Sure. I mean the first word that comes to mind is discipline. We're going to be very disciplined as we go through this process. We have a strong and robust dedicated pipeline, and I've already intimated that it is not my goal for us to be leaning into fleet growth. So with a strong pipeline of dedicated opportunities, and not looking to grow the core fleet, at least until we have better line of sight of how the cycle is shaping up. What it naturally means is the opportunity to move trucks through the bid process from One-way to dedicated as appropriate. Now every time we have those conversations with our One-way customers who we want to stand by and stay committed to if the opportunity isn't afforded to us to do that at a rate that's reasonable, we have choices.

當然。我的意思是第一個想到的詞是紀律。在我們完成這個過程時，我們將非常有紀律。我們擁有強大而穩健的專用管道，而且我已經暗示，我們的目標不是依靠機隊增長。因此，有了強大的專用機會管道，而不是尋求發展核心機隊，至少在我們對周期如何形成有更好的認識之前是這樣。這自然意味著有機會通過投標過程將卡車從單向移動到專用。現在，每次我們與單向客戶進行這些對話時，如果我們沒有機會以合理的速度做到這一點，我們就想站在一邊並保持承諾，我們有選擇。

And so it's all about keeping discipline through the bid process and then having the backdrop of 25% of that business tied up in a long-term agreement gives us further resilience that perhaps others wouldn't have. So we're -- I feel like we're set up as well as we can be in this environment to perform well and continue to execute, and that's certainly the expectation I have as we move forward into the bid season in late Q4 and into early Q1.

因此，這一切都是為了在投標過程中保持紀律，然後將 25% 的業務捆綁在一項長期協議中，這為我們提供了其他人可能沒有的更大的彈性。所以我們——我覺得我們已經做好了準備，我們可以在這種環境中表現良好並繼續執行，這當然是我對第四季度末進入競標季的期望進入第一季度初。

Yes. Okay. That's helpful context. And just for my follow-up, on the Logistics operating margins here in the third quarter, I certainly understand the nuances with less transactional opportunities. But I was a little bit surprised at kind of the negative operating leverage that we saw and John, I think you had some comments around trends into the fourth quarter. Can you maybe just help us think about a normalized range for logistics margins and any ability to kind of correct the margins here in the third quarter either into early '23, if not sooner?

是的。好的。這是有用的上下文。就我的後續行動而言，關於第三季度這裡的物流營業利潤率，我當然理解交易機會較少的細微差別。但我對我們看到的負經營槓桿感到有點驚訝，約翰，我認為你對第四季度的趨勢有一些評論。你能不能幫我們考慮一下物流利潤率的正常範圍，以及在第三季度到 23 年初（如果不是更早的話）糾正這裡利潤率的任何能力？

Sure, I'll take that. We -- let's start with this. So Q2 was sort of an outsized quarter for us in logistics. We had a tremendous amount of project pop-up type freight going on within logistics, specifically in our power only unit. That was some -- that is -- those opportunities are difficult to do, but can also be more lucrative from a margin perspective. As we got into Q3 and continuing into Q4, there's a far lesser degree of that type of work. So really -- so that's a big piece of it. The next piece is the mix of transactional to contractual, although transactional I'm sorry, contractual business as a percent of total has continued to grow even sequentially from Q2 to Q3. It's still not yet at the percentage we'd like to see. And so we're at 44% today, contractual, we'd like that number to be 50% or north of that. We're on our way and have made several percentage points of gains in just one quarter, but that plays into it as well.

當然，我會接受的。我們——讓我們從這個開始。所以第二季度對我們的物流來說是一個超大的季度。我們在物流中進行了大量項目彈出式貨運，特別是在我們的純動力單元中。那是一些——也就是說——那些機會很難做到，但從利潤的角度來看也可能更有利可圖。當我們進入第三季度並繼續進入第四季度時，這類工作的程度要低得多。所以真的 - 所以這是很大一部分。下一部分是交易與合同的混合，雖然交易業務我很抱歉，合同業務佔總數的百分比從第二季度到第三季度甚至連續增長。它仍然沒有達到我們希望看到的百分比。所以我們今天是 44%，合同，我們希望這個數字是 50% 或以上。我們正在前進，僅在一個季度內就取得了幾個百分點的收益，但這也起到了作用。

And then the last piece that's mixed in there is honestly, good news that in the short-term doesn't look so great, and that's about $1 million of start-up costs in Final Mile because of the success of that dedicated Final Mile product that we have and the number of implementations that we endured in the third quarter that don't start -- that start to reap benefit in Q4 and then certainly going forward. So there's a little bit of a lot of things that make up the answer. But globally, yes, we have line of sight to stabilizing that logistics unit. The comp in Q4, I must point out is also tough because of the peak and project opportunities that existed in Q4 a year ago, that logistics played a major part in. Those will be much more subdued this year. But sequentially, I feel better about our opportunity to make improvements Q3 to Q4 in logistics, but the comp year-over-year is -- is probably a hill too high based on the lack of project opportunities.

老實說，最後一個混入其中的好消息在短期內看起來並不那麼好，由於 Final Mile 專用產品的成功，Final Mile 的啟動成本約為 100 萬美元我們擁有的以及我們在第三季度忍受的實施數量沒有開始 - 在第四季度開始獲得收益，然後肯定會繼續前進。所以有很多東西構成了答案。但在全球範圍內，是的，我們有穩定該物流部門的視線。我必須指出，第四季度的競爭也很艱難，因為一年前第四季度存在的高峰期和項目機會，物流在其中發揮了重要作用。今年這些將更加低迷。但依次地，我對我們在第三季度到第四季度在物流方面進行改進的機會感覺更好，但由於缺乏項目機會，同比增長可能是一座太高的山。

The next question is from Jon Chappell with Evercore ISI.

下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Jon Chappell。

Derek, on the question around capacity leaving the market and the owner operators who are struggling under insurance and fuel and buying equipment for incredibly higher prices. I think everyone just expects that some of the older capacity is in the market. But I have to expect that some bought relatively modern equipment at elevated prices as well, and there may be some discounts to be had. I know you're not leaning into fleet growth, but as you think of opportunities, is there newer equipment that may be in the hands of owners that are struggling a lot worse than some of the bigger players, and that's an opportunity for you to get relative bargains. Or do you just stick with your OEMs and wait in a queue for that?

德里克 (Derek)，關於容量離開市場的問題，以及在保險和燃料下苦苦掙扎並以高得離譜的價格購買設備的業主運營商。我認為每個人都只是希望市場上有一些較舊的產能。但我不得不預料到，有些人也會以高價購買相對現代的設備，而且可能會有一些折扣。我知道你不傾向於船隊增長，但當你想到機會時，是否有更新的設備可能掌握在那些比一些更大的玩家掙扎得多的所有者手中，這對你來說是一個機會獲得相對的便宜貨。或者您只是堅持使用您的原始設備製造商並排隊等候？

Yes. Our model has always been based on buying new under our spec, with our setup, the way our drivers expect and like it to be delivered, the benefits of the extended warranties and the way we operate our trucks. To be frank, I hope what you just outlined isn't something that presents itself as an opportunity because it puts pressure on our own used truck sales. We do expect to use trucks to moderate, but still the opportunity for gains is there, and the market is actually relatively stabilized as of late. How long that holds up, it is yet to be determined. But there's -- it really comes down to the question that all of us want to have better clarity on, which is how quickly this capacity cleanse takes place. It's my belief for the reasons previously stated, it's going to happen a little more rapidly than people expect.

是的。我們的模式始終基於根據我們的規格購買新車、我們的設置、我們的司機期望和喜歡的交付方式、延長保修的好處以及我們操作卡車的方式。坦率地說，我希望您剛才概述的內容不會成為機會，因為它會給我們自己的二手卡車銷售帶來壓力。我們確實希望用卡車來緩和，但仍然存在上漲的機會，而且最近市場實際上相對穩定。這能持續多久，還有待確定。但是，這真的歸結為我們所有人都希望更清楚地了解的問題，即這種容量清理髮生的速度有多快。出於前面所述的原因，我相信它的發生速度會比人們預期的要快一些。

Okay. My follow-up might be a bit off the reservation a bit, but you've done some transactions, you leaned into Final Mile, obviously, in the Dedicated. Now where does intermodal fit with your portfolio? Is there a lot of cross-selling opportunities? Is there a scale to be had there? It seems like there's been some transactions in intermodal where maybe there's some decent prices, does that fit your portfolio longer-term? Or is that an opportunity to maybe really focus on where you do at scale?

好的。我的後續行動可能有點偏離保留，但你已經完成了一些交易，你顯然在 Dedicated 中進入了 Final Mile。現在多式聯運在哪裡適合您的投資組合？交叉銷售機會多嗎？那裡有秤嗎？似乎有一些聯運交易，其中可能有一些不錯的價格，這是否適合您的長期投資組合？還是這是一個真正專注於大規模工作的機會？

Yes. We're committed to intermodal as we go forward, and we're astute in the reality that, that is one path by which we might be able to make up some ground. Our intermodal product today is -- it does perform well from a customer perspective, it has performed well from a growth and margin perspective, but it is a more difficult space right now. The rails have had more than their share of disruptions and service interruptions and being a smaller player out of the larger field, which is where we are today, does put us at certain competitive disadvantages. So we're in the process right now of working through a longer-term intermodal strategy. I think it's fair to say that we've got to get -- we've got to gain share and relevancy in order to shore up some of the issues that we face as well as continue to grow or increase our operational efficiencies.

是的。在我們前進的過程中，我們致力於多式聯運，我們在現實中很敏銳，這是我們可以彌補一些基礎的一條途徑。我們今天的多式聯運產品是——從客戶的角度來看，它確實表現良好，從增長和利潤的角度來看，它表現良好，但現在這是一個更困難的領域。鐵路遭受的中斷和服務中斷的次數超過了它們的份額，並且作為我們今天所處的更大領域中的較小參與者，確實使我們處於某些競爭劣勢。所以我們現在正在製定一項長期的多式聯運戰略。我認為可以公平地說，我們必須獲得——我們必須獲得份額和相關性，以解決我們面臨的一些問題，並繼續發展或提高我們的運營效率。

We're growing our grade fleet and our percent of grade continues to increase, which helps our ability to deliver more efficiently. But that is a challenged space, not just for us, for everybody right now from a service perspective. If you think about our portfolio and how retail-oriented it is and how service-oriented it is, intermodal and the challenges that exist within that delivery mode and have existed now for way too long, is incongruent at times with the kind of customer portfolio and the kind of mix that we have. But where it fits and where we can cross-sell, we certainly do.

我們正在擴大我們的等級車隊，我們的等級百分比繼續增加，這有助於我們提高交付效率的能力。但這是一個充滿挑戰的空間，不僅對我們而言，從服務的角度來看，對現在的每個人來說都是如此。如果您考慮我們的產品組合以及它是如何以零售為導向的以及它是如何以服務為導向的，多式聯運以及該交付模式中存在的挑戰以及現在已經存在太久的挑戰有時與客戶組合的類型不一致以及我們擁有的那種組合。但在適合的地方和我們可以交叉銷售的地方，我們當然會這樣做。

The next question is from Ken Hoexter with Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Ken Hoexter。

John, best of luck whenever that date does come soon. In the past downturn, Derek, I know you were talking about this on inflation, driver inflation, but I think in the past, we've seen driver rates come down when rates came down. Is that just -- I mean, deflation in spot rates? Is that ever a reality given what's in the backdrop now or no chance. And then John, you talked a bit about the earnings on a sequential basis. Maybe can you throw out your thoughts on operating ratio, typically you have an improvement of about 200 basis points over the last couple of years. Given the backdrop you talked about, is it possible to be flattish? Or do you see continued improvement? I guess, maybe if you can give us your high load thoughts on the OR.

約翰，祝你好運，只要那個日期很快就會到來。在過去的經濟低迷時期，德里克，我知道你在談論通貨膨脹，司機通貨膨脹，但我認為在過去，當利率下降時，我們已經看到司機利率下降。那隻是——我的意思是，即期匯率的通貨緊縮？考慮到現在的背景或沒有機會，這是否會成為現實。然後約翰，你談到了一些連續的收益。也許你可以拋出你對運營比率的想法，通常你在過去幾年中有大約 200 個基點的改進。鑑於你所說的背景，是否可以平淡？還是您看到了持續的改進？我想，也許你可以告訴我們你對 OR 的高負荷想法。

Yes, I'll start on the driver question. Look, taking wages down in a market with unemployment as low as it is and inflationary pressures at the household level, what they are is going to be very difficult, if not impossible. It's certainly not part of our plans at this time. There are opportunities as we continue to create better lifestyle jobs. Often there is a compensation trade-off that goes along with that as you get people home more often and more consistently and especially if you can find engineered opportunities to get people home daily. But I think a better way to think about driver wages is the inflationary environment and the upward slope that we've seen for so many quarters in a row have really started to moderate. And we think the opportunity to hold the line or toe the line there for a bit is in front of us.

是的，我將從驅動程序問題開始。看，在失業率如此低且家庭層面存在通脹壓力的市場中降低工資，即使不是不可能，也將非常困難。目前這當然不在我們的計劃中。隨著我們繼續創造更好的生活方式工作，機會就來了。當你讓人們更頻繁、更一致地回家時，尤其是如果你能找到每天讓人們回家的工程機會時，通常會有一種補償權衡。但我認為考慮司機工資的更好方法是通貨膨脹環境和我們連續多個季度看到的上升趨勢確實開始放緩。我們認為，在我們面前有機會堅持或服從。

So we're going to continue to focus more heavily on the lifestyle side of the equation, the equipment side of the equation, our fleet is aged far less than many other fleets across the country, including many major trucking companies. And so the desirability factor is there. We've turned the corner on some turnover issues within the fleet. And as we create these better jobs, the driving experiences are more sticky and they tend to stay. So we think there's -- the better way to think about it is that the worst is behind us. We think it moderates from here and the opportunity as it relates to driver applications is certainly up for the very reasons we've been talking about with capacity exiting. Now within that opportunity, we have to be very selective and very careful about who we left through the door, and we're going to continue to have our standards stay high. And so it's just a matter of picking to a larger pile of applications that is.

因此，我們將繼續更加關注方程式的生活方式方面，方程式的設備方面，我們的車隊老化程度遠低於全國許多其他車隊，包括許多主要卡車運輸公司。因此，吸引力因素就在那裡。我們已經解決了機隊內部的一些營業額問題。當我們創造這些更好的工作時，駕駛體驗會更粘，而且它們往往會留下來。所以我們認為 - 更好的思考方式是最壞的情況已經過去。我們認為它從這裡緩和，並且由於我們一直在談論容量退出的原因，與驅動程序應用程序相關的機會肯定會增加。現在，在這個機會中，我們必須非常有選擇性地、非常小心地選擇讓誰進門，我們將繼續保持高標準。因此，這只是選擇更多應用程序的問題。

Okay. And Ken, on the operating margin, we did an 85.1% in TTS net of fuel in third quarter. Last year, we did an 81.8% in fourth quarter net of fuel, I don't think that's very likely. That was a stellar performance a year ago with all the project and surge and premium pricing opportunities we had last year. My expectation is that an 85.1%, it's achievable to match that or slightly improve that from third to fourth quarter. But on the logistics side, the level of income we saw last year was pretty strong in fourth quarter. And I would think we'll probably be closer to the level that we're at currently, maybe slightly better in fourth quarter for logistics operating income than third, but I wouldn't probably approach what we achieved last year.

好的。肯，在營業利潤率方面，我們在第三季度的 TTS 淨燃料利潤率為 85.1%。去年，我們在第四季度取得了 81.8% 的淨燃料收益，我認為這不太可能。一年前的表現非常出色，去年我們擁有所有項目、激增和溢價機會。我的期望是 85.1%，從第三季度到第四季度可以達到或略微提高。但在物流方面，去年第四季度的收入水平相當強勁。而且我認為我們可能會更接近我們目前的水平，第四季度的物流營業收入可能略高於第三季度，但我可能不會接近我們去年取得的成就。

That's real helpful. Yes, I was specifically talking to TTS. So that's real helpful. And your thoughts there. And Derek, just on the 3% run rate decline or 3% down to flat. Do you think that's more stable than the market given your mix of business on the Dedicated and your end-user customers? You talked about more is it's not as bad in the staples. So I guess, is there more stability there?

這真的很有幫助。是的，我是專門和 TTS 說話的。所以這真的很有幫助。還有你的想法。而德里克，運行率僅下降 3% 或下降 3% 至持平。考慮到您在專用和最終用戶客戶上的業務組合，您認為這比市場更穩定嗎？你談到的更多是它在主食中沒有那麼糟糕。所以我想，那裡有更多的穩定性嗎？

I think the biggest way to think about it is the lack of project in peak. It's less to do with rate renewals at all. As a matter of fact, it's almost completely nothing to do with rate renewals and even and it's immaterial relative to spot. It's literally the comp issue year-over-year relative to the subdued peak this year. Our core customers and our core agreements are holding up extremely well at this point. We're going to continue to hold up and stand by them from a service perspective. And so it's just the lack of opportunity to put some framework around it, it's our expectation that our peak opportunity this year is somewhere in the neighborhood of about 60% less than what it was a year ago.

我認為最大的思考方式是高峰時期缺乏項目。這根本與利率更新無關。事實上，它幾乎完全與利率續訂無關，甚至與現貨相比也無關緊要。相對於今年的低迷高峰，這實際上是同比問題。我們的核心客戶和我們的核心協議在這一點上表現得非常好。我們將繼續從服務的角度支持他們。因此，只是缺乏圍繞它建立一些框架的機會，我們預計今年我們的高峰機會比一年前少了大約 60%。

So that portion of that rate per mile that was specifically attributable to peak in project is about 60% lower Q4 this year versus Q4 a year ago. The other thing I'd point you to is that we do expect dedicated revenue per truck per week year-over-year to still, despite all of this backdrop we've been talking about, the largest portion of our fleet, it's still our expectation will be up 6% to 8% fourth quarter this year versus a year ago.

因此，與一年前的第四季度相比，今年第四季度特別歸因於項目高峰的每英里速度部分減少了約 60%。我要指出的另一件事是，儘管我們一直在談論所有這些背景，但我們確實預計每輛卡車每週的專用收入與去年同期相比仍然是我們車隊中最大的一部分，它仍然是我們的預計今年第四季度將比去年同期增長 6% 至 8%。

The next question is from Ariel Rosa with Credit Suisse.

下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Ariel Rosa。

So I kind of want to stay on that theme. So you had mentioned you think from a cost inflation standpoint, the worst of the conditions are kind of behind you. And you just mentioned dedicated pricing up 6% to 8%, which I think is still pretty robust, maybe lags inflation a little bit, but still pretty robust. Typically, in a down cycle, we do see earnings turn negative. Here, you're still posting double-digit adjusted earnings growth. Do we have to go through a period, do you think where we see earnings turn negative, maybe even meaningfully negative before we start to see that pick up? And if so, kind of what's the mechanism by which that happens? Is it higher cost, continued cost pressure or do rates come down or kind of -- what's your view on kind of the puts and takes there of how that plays out?

所以我有點想留在那個主題上。所以你提到你認為從成本通脹的角度來看，最糟糕的情況已經過去了。你剛剛提到專用定價上漲 6% 至 8%，我認為這仍然非常強勁，可能略微滯後於通脹，但仍然相當強勁。通常，在下行週期中，我們確實會看到收益轉為負值。在這裡，您仍然發布了兩位數的調整後收益增長。在我們開始看到收益回升之前，我們是否必須經歷一段時期，你認為我們看到收益轉為負值，甚至可能是有意義的負值？如果是這樣，發生這種情況的機制是什麼？是更高的成本、持續的成本壓力，還是利率下降，或者——你對看跌期權的類型有何看法，以及如何發揮作用？

Yes. I mean -- so first, I'll start with this, like it's the industry, right, that's going to be more relevant on when this thing turns, not just one company. And I think the industry is certainly going to see some negative earnings turns, especially the more exposed they are to One-Way and furthermore the more that they're exposed to spot. And so that's already happening where 90% of this industry is made up of carriers of 20 trucks or less and they were negative as we speak and not just year-over-year, but just flat negative in many cases. So as that washout continues, I think our job is to hold the line and continue to allow Dedicated to perform the way it does and continue to embrace what we have in that portion of our portfolio and hold the line in one way and guard against that big negative turn that you're talking about.

是的。我的意思是 - 首先，我將從這個開始，就像它是這個行業，對，這將在這件事發生時變得更加相關，而不僅僅是一家公司。而且我認為該行業肯定會出現一些負收益轉變，尤其是他們對單向的敞口越大，而且他們對現貨的敞口越大。所以這已經發生了，這個行業的 90% 是由 20 輛或更少卡車的承運人組成的，在我們說話時，它們是負面的，不僅僅是同比，但在許多情況下只是持平。因此，隨著沖刷的繼續，我認為我們的工作是堅守陣地，繼續讓 Dedicated 以它的方式執行，並繼續擁抱我們在這部分投資組合中擁有的東西，並以一種方式守住陣線並防範這種情況你正在談論的大的負面轉變。

If you go back to '18 to '19, we were up 1% year-over-year at a time that most everybody was down. If you go back further than that, it was a case where our portfolio was just fundamentally different. I'm not guiding that there won't be an EPS decline in '22 or '23 versus '22, what I am saying is that the traditional decline, if you were to look back over 4 or 5 cycles is absolutely not in the cards this time around, at least from our perspective. Our portfolio is different, our defensibility is stronger. Our long-term agreements are more robust and Dedicated is simply a much larger portion of the pie. So we will continue to chip away at it. We're not going to guide to '23, specially not on a Q3 call. But at this point, there's just too much uncertainty to know -- to be able to give you much more color than that.

如果你回到 18 年到 19 年，我們在大多數人都感到沮喪的時候同比增長了 1%。如果你追溯得更遠，那就是我們的投資組合根本不同的情況。我並不是說 22 年或 23 年的 EPS 與 22 年相比不會下降，我的意思是傳統的下降，如果你回顧 4 或 5 個週期，絕對不會出現這一次，至少從我們的角度來看。我們的組合不同，我們的防禦力更強。我們的長期協議更加穩健，Dedicated 所佔的份額要大得多。所以我們將繼續努力。我們不會引導到 23 年，特別是不會在第三季度的電話會議上。但在這一點上，有太多的不確定性需要知道——能夠給你比這更多的顏色。

No, no. That's terrific color. And certainly impressed with the results so far, especially the resiliency of dedicated. It's just been impressive to watch. Just for a quick follow-up. On the M&A point, you mentioned intermodal. Is there anything outside of intermodal? We've seen some of your truckload peers looking at LTL, looking at maybe expanding in Logistics and other areas or do you think it's mostly asset base that you guys are really thinking about as kind of an M&A opportunity?

不，不。那是很棒的顏色。到目前為止，肯定對結果印象深刻，尤其是專注的彈性。令人印象深刻。只是為了快速跟進。在併購方面，您提到了多式聯運。除了多式聯運之外還有什麼嗎？我們已經看到你們的一些卡車同行正在關注零擔運輸，考慮在物流和其他領域進行擴張，或者你們認為你們真正考慮的主要是資產基礎作為一種併購機會？

Yes. I would start by saying there's -- it's not mostly anything, and that's important to note. We are -- we really believe, I really believe that to do M&A appropriately, at least within our network and our business, we've got to be eyes wide open to all opportunities. So if you look at the 3 we've done so far on paper, they look very different, but they all fit a piece of the puzzle that mattered and was important to us. The ECM acquisition really solidified the Northeast region for us in a way that was uniquely capable of being done through acquisition. NEHDS was a dedicated Final Mile, not just Final Mile, but dedicated Final Mile provider that really fits hand in glove with our current dedicated offerings and our philosophical bend toward Dedicated and longer-term, tougher to do type of freight.

是的。我首先要說的是 - 它主要不是任何東西，這一點很重要。我們 - 我們真的相信，我真的相信要適當地進行併購，至少在我們的網絡和我們的業務中，我們必須睜大眼睛接受所有機會。所以如果你看看我們到目前為止在紙上完成的 3 個，它們看起來非常不同，但它們都符合對我們來說很重要並且很重要的拼圖。 ECM 的收購確實以一種獨特的方式為我們鞏固了東北地區。 NEHDS 是一個專門的 Final Mile，不僅僅是 Final Mile，而是專門的 Final Mile 提供商，它真正與我們目前的專用產品以及我們對專用和長期、更難做的貨運類型的哲學傾向密切相關。

And then Baylor is a pharmaceutical expedited sort of expert in their field and although it isn't a large acquisition by any means, it still brings a skill set and a management team, a leadership philosophy into this building that I think makes us better. As we look forward, we're going to have that kind of same broad net as we think about things I didn't bring up intermodal. I answered a question about intermodal. So I don't want anybody to believe that, that's some heavy focus or any kind of narrow band that we're looking at as it relates to acquisitions. Logistics is certainly in play as it relates to that and as are other opportunities. And lastly, I just want to remind everyone that our first and foremost objective is to grow this thing organically, to invest in ourselves, invest in the quality, in men and women across Werner Enterprises because I believe that's where our best return will be found. But when we find the right opportunity that we think makes us better, we're not going to be so proud as to pass up on it.

然後 Baylor 是他們領域的製藥專家，雖然這不是一個大的收購，但它仍然帶來了一套技能和一個管理團隊，一種我認為讓我們變得更好的大樓的領導理念。展望未來，我們將擁有那種廣泛的網絡，因為我們會考慮我沒有提出多式聯運的事情。我回答了一個關於多式聯運的問題。所以我不想讓任何人相信，這是我們正在關注的與收購相關的一些重點或任何類型的窄帶。物流肯定會發揮作用，因為它與此相關，其他機會也是如此。最後，我只想提醒大家，我們的首要目標是有機地發展這件事，投資於我們自己，投資於質量，投資於 Werner Enterprises 的員工，因為我相信這是我們獲得最佳回報的地方.但是，當我們找到我們認為能讓我們變得更好的合適機會時，我們不會驕傲到放棄它。

And the last question will be from Amit Mehrotra with Deutsche Bank.

最後一個問題將來自德意志銀行的 Amit Mehrotra。

Derek, John, I wanted to ask on the One-Way side if you've seen any shipper inflections in terms of bid compliance or the amount of volume they're tendering relative to the contracts? I'm just trying to snip out if there's anything going on either because of lower demand or the spot market opportunities maybe move. Anything to note there on that front?

德里克，約翰，我想問一下單程方面，您是否看到托運人在投標合規性或他們相對於合同的投標量方面有任何變化？我只是想排除是否因為需求下降或現貨市場機會可能移動而發生任何事情。在這方面有什麼需要注意的嗎？

Yes. Sure, Amit. I mean First off, we have really sophisticated tools to manage customer commitments and customer compliance. And it's difficult, it's easy to measure, it's harder to understand the why. And so I say that because clearly, there is an economic backdrop that is causing shippers volumes to decrease the combined impact of, in some cases, excess inventory and in other cases, just simply consumer sentiment. But what we try to manage is when it's clearly greater than the impact of those 2 items. And so when that happens, we have mechanisms to address it. We bring it to their attention. We have dialogues about it, and the response has been pretty positive. I would tell you that the majority of the folks we work with -- we've chosen to work with over a long history because of their commitment, integrity and approach to how they manage their business. And occasionally, somewhere in people's networks, somebody might run a little astray of that. And when that happens, we have to have those conversations.

是的。當然，阿米特。我的意思是，首先，我們擁有非常先進的工具來管理客戶承諾和客戶合規性。這很難，但很容易衡量，更難理解為什麼。所以我這麼說是因為很明顯，有一種經濟背景導致托運人數量減少，在某些情況下是庫存過剩，而在其他情況下，僅僅是消費者情緒的綜合影響。但我們試圖管理的是當它明顯大於這兩個項目的影響時。所以當這種情況發生時，我們有機制來解決它。我們提請他們注意。我們就此進行了對話，反應非常積極。我會告訴你，與我們合作的大多數人——我們之所以選擇與他們合作已有很長的歷史，因為他們的承諾、誠信和管理業務的方法。偶爾，在人們網絡的某個地方，有人可能會有點誤入歧途。當這種情況發生時，我們必須進行這些對話。

So we'll continue to manage it. I feel good about our ability to catch it if it's happening. I'm very comfortable with our ability to have that conversation when it needs to be had, and our team will continue to address and resolve them as we see them. I think you're going to see that going forward. That's always part of the process. It's always part of the cycle turn. And our job is to out manage it relative to others and make sure our customers understand just like we stood by them during COVID, and our spot market at its peak and One-Way was still low, low double digits, which is virtually no exposure -- showing our commitment to them. I will have very -- I have every confidence that we will voice and converse on that with any customer that we feel is behaving differently than that now that the market may have loosened some.

所以我們會繼續管理它。如果它正在發生，我對我們抓住它的能力感到滿意。我對我們在需要時進行對話的能力感到非常滿意，我們的團隊將繼續在我們看到它們時處理和解決它們。我認為你會看到這一點。這始終是流程的一部分。它始終是循環轉彎的一部分。我們的工作是相對於其他人更好地管理它，並確保我們的客戶理解，就像我們在 COVID 期間支持他們一樣，我們的現貨市場處於頂峰，單向市場仍然很低，低兩位數，這幾乎沒有風險——表明我們對他們的承諾。我將非常——我完全有信心，我們將與任何我們認為行為與現在市場可能已經放鬆的客戶不同的客戶就此發表意見和交談。

Okay. And then just for my follow-up, you guys put out this book-ended range for margins in TTS. I think you even raised the bottom end of it last year. I forget what it was, was 13% to 17% or 14% to 17%, I forget what it was. Maybe you can remind us. But as we think about 2023, the environment, it sounds like you still feel very comfortable that you're going to operate within that range next year in a potential downturn. I'm just wondering with the freight selection opportunities, maybe you guys were at the high end last year of that range, even exceeded, I think, in the quarter or so. Do you think kind of the low end of that range makes more sense, not necessarily due to price, but just the freight selection and surge opportunities.

好的。然後只是為了我的後續行動，你們在 TTS 中推出了這本書結束的邊距範圍。我認為你去年甚至提高了它的底端。我忘了它是什麼，是 13% 到 17% 還是 14% 到 17%，我忘了它是什麼了。也許你可以提醒我們。但是當我們考慮到 2023 年的環境時，聽起來您仍然對明年在潛在的低迷時期在該範圍內運營感到非常自在。我只是想知道貨運選擇機會，也許你們去年處於該範圍的高端，我認為甚至超過了大約一個季度。您認為該範圍的低端是否更有意義，不一定是因為價格，而只是運費選擇和激增機會。

So our range is 12% to 17%. We stress tested that range in many ways and even against economic backdrops, far worse than the one we're in right now, and we are comfortable sticking with that range and comfortable with our ability to perform within that range. It would not be my expectation to find us at the low end of that range in the ensuing quarters. But certainly for the year, it's my belief that by the middle of next year, this thing is corrected, and we've started to enter in a period of equilibrium if not tightening. And that sets itself up well for the back half of '23 and so for a yearly range, the low end would not be something that I would be expecting or accepting is probably a better word. Q1, depending on how Q4 plays out, obviously, could be tougher.

所以我們的範圍是 12% 到 17%。我們以多種方式甚至在經濟背景下對這個範圍進行了壓力測試，這比我們現在所處的情況要糟糕得多，我們很樂意堅持這個範圍，並對我們在這個範圍內的表現能力感到滿意。在接下來的幾個季度中，我不會期望我們處於該範圍的低端。但肯定是今年，我相信到明年年中，這件事會得到糾正，我們已經開始進入一個平衡期，如果不是收緊的話。這為 23 年的後半段做好了準備，因此對於年度範圍，低端不會是我所期望的，或者接受可能是一個更好的詞。第一季度，取決於第四季度的表現，顯然，可能會更艱難。

But even in that scenario, it's our belief, especially, again, I know I sound like a broken record, but I have to point you back to the strong execution, long-term history and the longevity of the relationships in Dedicated and the defensibility of what that freight looks like. That will only increase in its importance and increase probably in its scale as we go through bid season. because of the combination of a strong pipeline and Dedicated with a market going through its normal cycle change on One-Way, lends itself to rather than growing, simply migrating and I think you can expect more migration from One-Way to Dedicated depending on how this bid season goes.

但即使在那種情況下，這也是我們的信念，尤其是，再次，我知道我聽起來像是一個破紀錄，但我必須向你指出強大的執行力、長期的歷史以及 Dedicated 中關係的持久性和防禦性貨物的樣子。隨著我們進入投標季節，這只會增加其重要性，並可能增加其規模。由於強大的管道和 Dedicated 與市場在 One-Way 上經歷其正常週期變化相結合，它本身有助於而不是增長，只是簡單地遷移，我認為你可以期待更多從 One-Way 到 Dedicated 的遷移，具體取決於如何這個投標季節過去了。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I'll now turn the call over to Mr. Derek Leathers, who will provide closing comments. Please go ahead.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我現在將電話轉給 Derek Leathers 先生，他將提供結束評論。請繼續。

Yes. I just want to thank everybody for joining our call today. And although we're entering the time of increasing uncertainty relative to the direction of the overall economy, our business model and our customer mix is designed to execute well. At the macro level, the industry dealt with a shifting logistics landscape, and we face cost challenges with our investments in schools, while at the same time, our steady and durable dedicated business continued to perform as advertised. We added to our portfolio in other pieces of the puzzle this quarter with the acquisition of the high-performance team at Baylor. And despite its relatively small size, I'm super excited about the capabilities and industry verticals that allows us to further develop.

是的。我只想感謝大家今天加入我們的電話會議。儘管我們正進入與整體經濟方向相關的不確定性增加的時期，但我們的商業模式和客戶組合旨在執行良好。在宏觀層面，該行業面臨著不斷變化的物流格局，我們在學校投資方面面臨成本挑戰，與此同時，我們穩定而持久的專業業務繼續如宣傳的那樣表現。本季度，我們收購了 Baylor 的高性能團隊，為我們的投資組合增添了其他拼圖。儘管它的規模相對較小，但我對允許我們進一步發展的能力和垂直行業感到非常興奮。

Our dedicated pipeline remains strong, and our less asset-intensive power-only offering continues to show promise as we go forward. Deactivations of carriers are on the rise and capacity constraints remain, lending confidence to our view that cycle duration will be shortened and less severe. And while peak season this year is underwhelming thus far, it will only hasten the capacity correction that is already underway. I remain confident in this team's ability to execute as we work through this correction and come out even stronger on the other side. And finally, and perhaps most importantly, I just want to thank the entire Werner team for their tireless dedication and commitment to excellence that makes me proud to be part of this team every day. Thank you for listening and thank you for spending your time with us today.

我們的專用管道仍然很強大，我們的資產密集度較低的純電力產品在我們前進的過程中繼續顯示出希望。運營商的停用正在增加，運力限制仍然存在，這使我們相信週期持續時間將縮短且不那麼嚴重的觀點。儘管今年的旺季到目前為止表現平平，但這只會加速已經在進行中的運力調整。我對這支球隊的執行能力充滿信心，因為我們正在努力完成這次調整，並在另一邊變得更加強大。最後，也許是最重要的，我只想感謝整個 Werner 團隊的不懈奉獻和對卓越的承諾，這讓我每天都為成為這個團隊的一員而感到自豪。感謝您的收聽，感謝您今天與我們共度時光。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連接。