Wendy's Co (WEN) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good morning. Welcome to the Wendy's Company Earnings Results Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

    早上好。歡迎來到 Wendy's 公司收益結果電話會議。 (操作員說明)

  • Kelsey Freed, Director of Investor Relations, you may begin your conference.

    投資者關係總監 Kelsey Freed,你可以開始你的會議了。

  • Kelsey Freed

    Kelsey Freed

  • Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Today's conference call and webcast includes a PowerPoint presentation, which is available on our Investor Relations website, irwendys.com.

    謝謝大家,早上好。今天的電話會議和網絡廣播包括一個 PowerPoint 演示文稿,可在我們的投資者關係網站 irwendys.com 上獲取。

  • Before we begin, please take note of the safe harbor statement that appears at the end of our earnings release. This disclosure reminds investors that certain information we may discuss today is forward-looking. Various factors could affect our results and cause those results to differ materially from the projections set forth in our forward-looking statements. Also, some of today's comments will reference non-GAAP financial measures. Investors should refer to our reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measure at the end of this presentation or in our earnings release.

    在我們開始之前,請注意出現在我們收益發布末尾的安全港聲明。此披露提醒投資者,我們今天可能討論的某些信息是前瞻性的。各種因素可能會影響我們的結果,並導致這些結果與我們前瞻性陳述中提出的預測存在重大差異。此外,今天的一些評論將參考非 GAAP 財務指標。投資者應在本演示文稿末尾或我們的收益發布中參考我們對非 GAAP 財務指標與最直接可比的 GAAP 指標的調節。

  • On our conference call today, our President and Chief Executive Officer, Todd Penegor, will give a business update and provide details on our plans to deliver accelerated growth behind our strategic initiatives; and our Chief Financial Officer, Gunther Plosch, will review our 2022 fourth quarter and full year results as well as our 2023 and long-term outlook. From there, we will open up the line for questions.

    在我們今天的電話會議上,我們的總裁兼首席執行官 Todd Penegor 將介紹業務更新,並詳細介紹我們在戰略舉措背後實現加速增長的計劃;我們的首席財務官 Gunther Plosch 將回顧我們 2022 年第四季度和全年的業績以及我們的 2023 年和長期展望。從那裡,我們將打開問題熱線。

  • With that, I will hand things over to Todd.

    有了這個,我會把事情交給托德。

  • Todd Allan Penegor - President, CEO & Director

    Todd Allan Penegor - President, CEO & Director

  • Thanks, Kelsey, and good morning, everyone.

    謝謝,凱爾西,大家早上好。

  • I'm excited to speak to you all again this quarter to share more detail on our strong close to 2022 and how we expect our continued momentum will drive accelerated growth in 2023 and beyond. As we shared in January, we are incredibly proud that last year marked our 12th consecutive year of global same-restaurant sales growth. We continue to drive momentum in our U.S. breakfast business, which grew versus the third quarter and peaked at over $3,000 per restaurant per week in Q4. This growth was driven by the continued success of our first major breakfast menu innovation, French Toast Sticks and our traffic-driving $3 croissant promotion.

    我很高興在本季度再次與大家交談,分享更多關於我們接近 2022 年的強勁表現的細節,以及我們預計我們的持續勢頭將如何推動 2023 年及以後的加速增長。正如我們在 1 月份分享的那樣,去年是我們全球同店銷售額連續第 12 年增長,我們為此感到無比自豪。我們繼續推動美國早餐業務的發展勢頭,與第三季度相比有所增長,並在第四季度達到每家餐廳每週超過 3,000 美元的峰值。這一增長是由我們的第一個主要早餐菜單創新、法式吐司棒和我們吸引流量的 3 美元羊角麵包促銷活動的持續成功推動的。

  • Our global digital business averaged over 10% sales mix in the fourth quarter and now represents over $1.3 billion business. In the U.S., our strong digital results were driven by growth across both delivery and mobile order channels. Our U.S. loyalty program continued to grow, reaching over 29 million total members at year-end, an almost 40% increase versus year-end 2021. Internationally, Q4 digital momentum accelerated to approximately 17% of sales due in part to our recent loyalty launch in Canada, which is exceeding our expectations and driving a sharp uptick in mobile order transactions.

    我們的全球數字業務在第四季度平均超過 10% 的銷售組合,現在代表超過 13 億美元的業務。在美國,我們強勁的數字業績是由交付和移動訂單渠道的增長推動的。我們的美國忠誠度計劃繼續增長,到年底達到超過 2900 萬會員,比 2021 年底增長近 40%。在國際上,第四季度數字勢頭加速到銷售額的約 17%,部分原因是我們最近推出的忠誠度計劃在加拿大,這超出了我們的預期並推動了移動訂單交易的急劇上升。

  • And on the development front, we are pleased to have opened over 275 restaurants last year, growing net units by 2.1%. The growth we delivered throughout the year contributed to a step-up in company-operated restaurant margin which expanded by almost 300 basis points over the course of 2022. Our successes and the great relationships we have with our franchisees, led to us recently being named a top 50 enterprise franchise by Franchise Business Review.

    在發展方面,我們很高興去年開設了超過 275 家餐廳,淨單位增長了 2.1%。我們全年實現的增長促進了公司經營的餐廳利潤率的提高,該利潤率在 2022 年期間增長了近 300 個基點。我們的成功以及我們與特許經營商的良好關係使我們最近被命名為Franchise Business Review 評選的 50 強企業特許經營權。

  • As we turn to 2023, we remain focused on driving efficient accelerated growth. We continue to believe that QSR is the place to be and that our mix of convenience, affordability and speed put us in a position to win with our customers and drive further expansion. The momentum we have built and our focus on execution are evident in the step-up in our financial outlook that GP will talk through later.

    展望 2023 年,我們仍然專注於推動高效加速增長。我們仍然相信,QSR 是必去之地,我們的便利性、可負擔性和速度相結合,使我們能夠贏得客戶的青睞,並推動進一步擴張。我們建立的勢頭和我們對執行的關注在我們的財務前景的升級中顯而易見,GP 將在稍後討論。

  • 2022 marks our second consecutive year of double-digit global same-restaurant sales growth on a 2-year basis. As we shared previously, this growth was driven by widespread strength across our U.S., international segments. In the U.S., we have now grown or maintained dollar and traffic share of the QSR burger category every quarter for the last 7 and 5 years, respectively. This momentum was driven by our strong and balanced marketing calendar and supported by strategic pricing actions. And in Canada, our largest international market, we grew both dollar and traffic share in the fourth quarter and the last 3 years faster than all QSR burger competitors. This outstanding performance was driven by our compelling marketing calendar, our focus on accelerating digital and our breakfast launch.

    2022 年是我們連續第二年實現全球同店銷售額連續兩年兩位數增長。正如我們之前分享的那樣,這種增長是由我們美國和國際部門的廣泛實力推動的。在美國,我們現在分別在過去 7 年和 5 年中每個季度都增加或保持了 QSR 漢堡類別的美元和流量份額。這種勢頭是由我們強大而平衡的營銷日曆推動的,並得到戰略定價行動的支持。在我們最大的國際市場加拿大,我們在第四季度和過去 3 年的收入和流量份額增長速度超過所有 QSR 漢堡競爭對手。這一出色的表現得益於我們引人注目的營銷日曆、我們對加速數字化的關注以及我們的早餐發布。

  • Before sharing our plans for 2023 and beyond, I'll hand things over to GP to talk through our fourth quarter and full year financial results.

    在分享我們 2023 年及以後的計劃之前,我將把事情交給 GP 來討論我們的第四季度和全年財務業績。

  • Gunther Plosch - CFO

    Gunther Plosch - CFO

  • Thanks, Todd. We are very proud of our fourth quarter and full year results, which highlight the strength and resiliency of the Wendy's brand.

    謝謝,托德。我們對我們的第四季度和全年業績感到非常自豪,這凸顯了 Wendy's 品牌的實力和彈性。

  • In the fourth quarter, our global systemwide sales grew over 8%, supported by double-digit 2-year same-restaurant sales growth across both our U.S. and international segments and continued global net unit growth. Our global company restaurant margin held flat year-over-year, primarily due to the benefit of a high average check driven by cumulative pricing of almost 10%. This was offset by persistent commodity and labor inflation of approximately 9% and 5%, respectively, customer count declines and ongoing investments to support our U.K. expansion.

    第四季度,我們的全球系統銷售額增長超過 8%,這得益於我們美國和國際部門 2 年兩位數的同店銷售額增長以及全球淨單位的持續增長。我們的全球公司餐廳利潤率同比持平,這主要是由於近 10% 的累計定價推動了高平均支票的好處。這被分別約 9% 和 5% 的持續商品和勞動力通脹、客戶數量下降和支持我們在英國擴張的持續投資所抵消。

  • We are very pleased that in the U.S., company restaurant margin reached 15.1% in the fourth quarter, bringing us closer to our goal of returning to pre-COVID margins in 2023. The increase in G&A was primarily driven by higher salaries and benefits as a result of investments in resources to support our development and digital organizations, technology costs primarily related to our ERP implementation and increased travel expenses. These increases were partially offset by a lower compensation accrual as a result of our overdelivery versus plan in the prior year.

    我們很高興在美國,第四季度公司餐廳利潤率達到 15.1%,這使我們更接近我們在 2023 年恢復到 COVID 前利潤率的目標。G&A 的增長主要是由更高的工資和福利推動的,因為由於投資資源以支持我們的發展和數字組織,技術成本主要與我們的 ERP 實施和增加的差旅費用有關。由於我們比上一年的計劃超額交付,因此應計薪酬較低,部分抵消了這些增長。

  • Adjusted EBITDA increased over 20% to approximately $124 million, primarily driven by higher franchise royalty revenue and the favorable impact of our acquisition of 93 restaurants in Florida in the prior year. These increases were partially offset by higher G&A expense. The over 35% increase in adjusted earnings per share was driven by an increase in adjusted EBITDA, higher interest income and fewer shares outstanding from our share repurchase program. This was partially offset by higher interest expense as a result of our debt raise transaction in the first quarter of 2022 and a higher tax rate.

    調整後的 EBITDA 增長了 20% 以上,達到約 1.24 億美元,這主要是由於特許經營權使用費收入增加以及我們去年收購佛羅里達州 93 家餐廳的有利影響。這些增長部分被較高的 G&A 費用所抵消。調整後每股收益增長超過 35% 的原因是調整後 EBITDA 增加、利息收入增加以及我們的股票回購計劃中流通在外的股票減少。這部分被我們在 2022 年第一季度的債務融資交易和更高的稅率導致的更高利息支出所抵消。

  • As we shared in January, we were able to deliver compelling sales and profit growth across 2022. For the full year, our global systemwide sales grew 6.8%, supported by strong same-restaurant sales growth and continued net unit development. Company restaurant margin expanded almost 300 basis points over the course of 2022 averaging 13.8% globally and 14.3% in the U.S. for the full year. Adjusted EBITDA increased 6.6% to approximately $498 million, which supported an almost 5% increase in adjusted earnings per share to $0.86. Finally, we delivered free cash flow of $213 million as our core earnings growth was more than offset by incentive compensation payments for the 2021 fiscal year paid in 2022, cash paid for our ERP implementation and higher CapEx.

    正如我們在 1 月份分享的那樣,我們能夠在 2022 年實現令人矚目的銷售額和利潤增長。全年,我們的全球全系統銷售額增長 6.8%,這得益於強勁的同店銷售額增長和持續的淨單位發展。公司餐廳利潤率在 2022 年期間增長了近 300 個基點,全年全球平均增長 13.8%,美國平均增長 14.3%。調整後 EBITDA 增長 6.6% 至約 4.98 億美元,這支持調整後每股收益增長近 5% 至 0.86 美元。最後,我們交付了 2.13 億美元的自由現金流,因為我們的核心收入增長被 2022 年支付的 2021 財年激勵補償金、為實施 ERP 支付的現金和更高的資本支出所抵消。

  • With that, I will pass things back over to Todd to talk about our plans to deliver a new gear of growth.

    有了這個,我會把事情交還給托德,談談我們實現新增長的計劃。

  • Todd Allan Penegor - President, CEO & Director

    Todd Allan Penegor - President, CEO & Director

  • Thanks, GP. Everything we do could not be possible without our incredible employees, franchisees, restaurant crew members and supply partners. Before diving into our growth plans, I want to take a moment to highlight the global leadership team that will drive our growth strategies forward. I feel so fortunate to be surrounded by one of the best senior leadership teams in the business as we charge onward into the next phase of the Wendy's brand. This is a team with diverse backgrounds and perspectives and has an incredibly strong track record of delivering results across the business, their passion and commitment, together with the structure we have designed to support a truly global focus give me confidence that we will meaningfully accelerate our results for years to come.

    謝謝,全科醫生。如果沒有我們優秀的員工、特許經營商、餐廳工作人員和供應合作夥伴,我們所做的一切都是不可能的。在深入探討我們的增長計劃之前,我想花點時間強調一下將推動我們的增長戰略向前發展的全球領導團隊。在我們向 Wendy's 品牌的下一階段衝刺時,我感到很幸運能被業內最好的高級領導團隊之一包圍。這是一個具有不同背景和觀點的團隊,在整個企業取得成果方面有著令人難以置信的良好記錄,他們的熱情和承諾,以及我們為支持真正的全球關注而設計的結構,讓我相信我們將有意義地加速我們的未來幾年的結果。

  • As we turn to 2023, our plans are deeply rooted in the foundation of the restaurant economic model, and we remain focused on delivering accelerated global growth behind the most impactful drivers of our business. Two of these growth pillars are unchanged. We plan to continue driving digital acceleration and delivering meaningful expansion of our global restaurant footprint over the next several years.

    當我們轉向 2023 年時,我們的計劃深深紮根於餐廳經濟模式的基礎,我們仍然專注於在我們業務最具影響力的驅動因素背後實現加速的全球增長。其中兩個增長支柱沒有改變。我們計劃在未來幾年繼續推動數字化加速,並在全球範圍內實現餐廳足蹟的有意義擴張。

  • As we move into our next phase of growth, we are broadening the focus of our remaining growth pillar to driving strong global same-restaurant sales momentum across all dayparts through our ownable core products, exciting menu innovation, compelling value offerings and improvements in speed and consistency in our restaurants. We are extremely proud of the profitable sales layer our U.S. breakfast business has become over the last 3 years. Continue to grow our breakfast daypart will remain an area of focus for us as we move forward and will be one of the many levers we will utilize to deliver global growth.

    隨著我們進入下一增長階段,我們正在擴大我們剩餘增長支柱的重點,通過我們可擁有的核心產品、令人興奮的菜單創新、引人注目的價值提供以及速度和速度的改進,在所有時段推動強勁的全球同店銷售勢頭。我們餐廳的一致性。我們對過去 3 年美國早餐業務的盈利銷售層感到非常自豪。隨著我們前進,繼續增加早餐時段仍將是我們關注的領域,並將成為我們實現全球增長的眾多槓桿之一。

  • The organizational redesign that we have embarked on is all in service of better supporting our long-term growth pillars while holding G&A relatively flat over the next 2 years. It is our goal to operate as a truly global brand which will maximize organizational efficiency and streamline decision-making. We plan to take a global approach across marketing and digital in order to more seamlessly share best practices and successful programs and provide even more support to our growing international business. We also plan to align resources to further support development acceleration across the U.S. and international segments. We believe these changes position us to deliver a new year of efficient, accelerated global growth.

    我們著手進行的組織重新設計都是為了更好地支持我們的長期增長支柱,同時在未來兩年內保持 G&A 相對平穩。我們的目標是作為一個真正的全球品牌運營,最大限度地提高組織效率並簡化決策。我們計劃在營銷和數字領域採取全球性方法,以便更無縫地分享最佳實踐和成功的項目,並為我們不斷發展的國際業務提供更多支持。我們還計劃調整資源,以進一步支持美國和國際部門的發展加速。我們相信,這些變化使我們能夠在新的一年實現高效、加速的全球增長。

  • We have an incredibly strong track record of delivering same-restaurant sales growth and believe that we have the plans in place to continue our momentum. This will be supported in part by our commitment to delivering craveable products across a variety of price points and occasions. We will remain true to our barbell approach, promoting both check-building premium products through our ownable Made to Crave platform and traffic-driving value options that appeal to our customers while still supporting the restaurant economic model. We'll also continue to showcase our great brand on some of the biggest stages like the upcoming March Madness tournament.

    我們在實現同店銷售增長方面有著令人難以置信的強勁記錄,並且相信我們已經制定了繼續保持增長勢頭的計劃。我們致力於在各種價位和場合提供令人垂涎的產品,這在一定程度上得到了支持。我們將繼續堅持我們的槓鈴方法,通過我們自己的 Made to Crave 平台和交通驅動價值選項推廣支票建設優質產品,這些產品吸引我們的客戶,同時仍然支持餐廳經濟模式。我們還將繼續在一些最大的舞台上展示我們偉大的品牌,例如即將到來的 March Madness 錦標賽。

  • At the breakfast daypart, we are leaning into our playbook to drive awareness, trial and repeat through compelling price promotions alongside strategic menu innovation in both the U.S. and Canada. We are excited to hit the 1-year anniversary of our Canadian breakfast launch in May and will continue to support the market with an approximately $2 million company investment in breakfast advertising this year. We expect continued growth at this daypart in both the U.S. and Canada over the next several years as we work to ultimately capture our fair share.

    在早餐時段,我們正致力於通過引人注目的價格促銷以及美國和加拿大的戰略菜單創新來提高知名度、嘗試和重複。我們很高興在 5 月份迎來我們推出加拿大早餐 1 週年紀念日,並將繼續支持市場,公司今年將投資約 200 萬美元用於早餐廣告。隨著我們努力最終獲得我們的公平份額,我們預計未來幾年美國和加拿大在這一天的持續增長。

  • Finally, we believe that we can unlock even more sales growth by diligently working to improve our speed of service and accuracy for every order, every day at our restaurants. We made great progress in these areas in 2022 and expect further improvements will drive continued tailwinds to the business. We expect these initiatives will ladder up to mid-single-digit global same-restaurant sales growth in 2023 and low single-digit growth annually in 2024 and 2025.

    最後,我們相信,通過努力提高餐廳每天為每個訂單提供服務的速度和準確性,我們可以釋放更多的銷售增長。 2022 年,我們在這些領域取得了長足進步,預計進一步的改進將為業務帶來持續的順風。我們預計這些舉措將在 2023 年實現中等個位數的全球同店銷售額增長,並在 2024 年和 2025 年實現低個位數的年度增長。

  • As I shared earlier, our global digital business has a ton of momentum as we head into 2023 and we expect meaningful growth in our digital channels over the next several years. We are laser focused on partnering with world-class technology companies to enhance the entire customer, crew and delivery driver journey. This includes building digital into the DNA of what we do every day at our restaurants through our Global Next Gen design and continuing to build our one-to-one marketing capabilities to drive truly personalized relationships with our loyalty members. We are also leaning in by testing emerging technologies like voice and vision AI to reduce friction throughout the ordering experience.

    正如我之前分享的那樣,我們的全球數字業務在進入 2023 年時勢頭強勁,我們預計未來幾年我們的數字渠道將實現有意義的增長。我們非常專注於與世界一流的技術公司合作,以提升整個客戶、船員和送貨司機的旅程。這包括通過我們的 Global Next Gen 設計將數字化融入我們餐廳日常工作的 DNA 中,並繼續建立我們的一對一營銷能力,以推動與忠誠會員建立真正個性化的關係。我們還通過測試語音和視覺 AI 等新興技術來減少整個訂購體驗中的摩擦。

  • We expect our momentum will continue with high single-digit global digital sales growth reaching approximately $1.5 billion of digital sales in 2023. As we continue to further refine our tools and customer and crew experiences, we expect our digital business to grow to over $2 billion in 2025, representing global digital sales mix in the mid-teens. We expect this growth will have compounding effects on the restaurant economic model as increased digital sales will drive efficiency in the restaurant and lower labor costs over time adding another layer of profitability to support our footprint expansion.

    我們預計我們的勢頭將繼續保持高個位數的全球數字銷售額增長,到 2023 年數字銷售額將達到約 15 億美元。隨著我們繼續進一步完善我們的工具以及客戶和船員體驗,我們預計我們的數字業務將增長到超過 20 億美元到 2025 年,代表全球數字銷售組合中的十幾歲。我們預計這種增長將對餐廳經濟模式產生復合影響,因為增加的數字銷售將提高餐廳的效率,並隨著時間的推移降低勞動力成本,從而增加另一層盈利能力以支持我們的足跡擴張。

  • We firmly believe that global unit expansion is the key unlock for accelerating our growth. As we turn towards the future, we'll have a disciplined approach on driving traditional restaurant growth across the U.S. and our key established international markets alongside continued expansion in the U.K. and broader Europe. We have tested and learned across several nontraditional formats and locations. And while we continue to be very successful with many of these formats, we do not envision that delivery kitchens will be a large element of our growth trajectory moving forward. We believe our efforts are better spent driving more access to the Wendy's brand through our Global Next Gen design.

    我們堅信,全球單位擴張是加速我們增長的關鍵。當我們面向未來時,我們將採用一種有紀律的方法來推動傳統餐廳在美國和我們主要的成熟國際市場的增長,同時在英國和更廣泛的歐洲繼續擴張。我們已經在多種非傳統格式和地點進行了測試和學習。雖然我們在其中許多形式上繼續取得非常成功,但我們並不認為外賣廚房將成為我們未來增長軌蹟的重要組成部分。我們相信,通過我們的 Global Next Gen 設計,我們的努力最好花在推動 Wendy's 品牌的更多訪問上。

  • We already have a strong foundation due in part to the strategic investments we've made over the last few years. Coming into 2023, we have a significant portion of our development pipeline locked in under our groundbreaker development incentive, over 300 potential franchise candidates in our recruiting pipeline, strong interest in our Build-to-Suit program with an increase in activity expected to begin in 2024, compelling development incentive programs across our international regions and a new global design standard that we expect will support high AUVs, reduce build costs and improve operating efficiency, all while building a digital-first mindset into everything we do in our restaurants.

    我們已經有了堅實的基礎,部分原因是我們在過去幾年進行的戰略投資。進入 2023 年,我們的開發管道中有很大一部分被鎖定在我們的開創性開發激勵下,我們的招聘管道中有超過 300 名潛在的特許經營候選人,對我們的 Build-to-Suit 計劃有濃厚的興趣,預計將於 2023 年開始增加活動到 2024 年,在我們的國際區域實施引人注目的開發激勵計劃,我們預計新的全球設計標準將支持高 AUV、降低建造成本並提高運營效率,同時將數字優先的理念融入我們在餐廳所做的一切。

  • This year, we are building upon this foundation with the launch of our new Pacesetter development incentive program in the U.S. and Canada. Pacesetter will approximately double the incentive offered in our previous program while increasing the royalty rate for new restaurants built under these development agreements to 5%. All in, we expect the incentive will cut the average levered payback for a new build by 35% versus our previous program to just over 2 years.

    今年,我們在此基礎上再接再厲,在美國和加拿大推出了新的 Pacesetter 發展激勵計劃。 Pacesetter 將把我們之前計劃中提供的獎勵增加一倍左右,同時將根據這些開發協議建造的新餐廳的特許權使用費率提高到 5%。總而言之,我們預計該激勵措施將使新建築的平均槓桿投資回報率比我們之前的計劃降低 35%,僅為 2 年多一點。

  • We believe that these strategies alongside continued strengthening of the restaurant economic model through strong same-restaurant sales momentum and digital acceleration will drive increased interest in the investment opportunity of the brand and ladder up to significant increase and net new unit growth over the next several years.

    我們相信,這些戰略以及通過強勁的同店銷售勢頭和數字化加速持續加強餐廳經濟模式,將推動人們對該品牌投資機會的興趣增加,並在未來幾年實現顯著增長和淨新單位增長.

  • We expect an initial step-up in 2023 and 2024 with an anticipated annual net unit growth rate of 2% to 3%, ramping towards the high end of the range in 2024. We expect growth will increase even further over the longer term as we bring in even more growth-minded franchisees into the system and are anticipating annual net unit growth of 3% to 4% in 2025. We expect this growth will be spread across the globe with international markets driving about 70% of the net unit growth over the next 3 years and the remaining 30% driven by the U.S.

    我們預計在 2023 年和 2024 年將出現初步增長,預計年淨單位增長率為 2% 至 3%,並在 2024 年達到該範圍的高端。我們預計增長將在較長時期內進一步增長,因為我們將更多具有增長意識的特許經營商引入系統,並預計 2025 年的年淨單位增長率為 3% 至 4%。我們預計這種增長將遍布全球,國際市場將推動約 70% 的淨單位增長未來 3 年,其餘 30% 由美國驅動

  • In the U.S., we continue to be underpenetrated with thousands of potential trade areas that sit untapped and without a Wendy's. We know this leaves a ton of white space for us and our franchisees to provide even more access to the brand over the short term and the long term.

    在美國,我們繼續被數以千計的未開發且沒有 Wendy's 的潛在貿易區滲透。我們知道這為我們和我們的特許經營商留下了大量的空白空間,可以在短期和長期內為品牌提供更多的渠道。

  • In Canada, we are laser-focused on bringing growth-minded franchisees into the Wendy's family to further accelerate our leadership position in the region. This work is well underway with 10 new franchisees approved in 2022 and plans to begin a substantial expansion in Quebec beginning in 2024.

    在加拿大,我們專注於將具有成長意識的加盟商引入 Wendy's 大家庭,以進一步鞏固我們在該地區的領導地位。這項工作進展順利,2022 年批准了 10 家新加盟商,併計劃從 2024 年開始在魁北克進行大規模擴張。

  • In the U.K. and Europe, we intend to lean in on our strong start in the region by continuing to grow the U.K. market alongside traditional franchisees and entering Ireland and Spain with experienced master franchisees beginning in 2024.

    在英國和歐洲,我們打算依靠我們在該地區的良好開端,與傳統特許經營商一起繼續發展英國市場,並從 2024 年開始與經驗豐富的主要特許經營商一起進入愛爾蘭和西班牙。

  • Our results have never been stronger across many markets in our Latin American region, and we plan to leverage this momentum to accelerate unit development over the coming years. We are particularly focused on growing our footprint in Mexico, where we have a strong track record of sales growth and an outstanding brand reputation for quality.

    我們在拉丁美洲地區的許多市場取得的業績從未像現在這樣強勁,我們計劃利用這一勢頭在未來幾年加速單位發展。我們特別專注於擴大我們在墨西哥的足跡,我們在墨西哥擁有良好的銷售增長記錄和出色的質量品牌聲譽。

  • Finally, in our APMEA region, we have large development agreements that will drive meaningful unit growth over the next several years. This includes a commitment for 200 restaurants in the Philippines and a commitment for approximately 400 restaurants in India with Rebel Foods, our recently named master franchisee in the country. Additionally, we have begun the franchise recruiting process in Australia, which we plan to enter and expand through a franchise-only model in the coming years.

    最後,在我們的 APMEA 地區,我們簽訂了大型開發協議,這些協議將在未來幾年推動有意義的單位增長。這包括承諾在菲律賓開設 200 家餐廳,並承諾與我們最近在該國指定的主要特許經營商 Rebel Foods 合作在印度開設約 400 家餐廳。此外,我們已經開始在澳大利亞開展特許經營招募流程,我們計劃在未來幾年通過僅特許經營模式進入並擴展該地區。

  • We know that the world deserves more Wendy's and the plans, structure and focus we have in place to support this growth pillar, give me confidence that we will deliver record-setting unit growth and delight even more customers around the globe.

    我們知道世界值得擁有更多 Wendy's,而我們為支持這一增長支柱而製定的計劃、結構和重點讓我相信我們將實現創紀錄的單位增長並取悅全球更多客戶。

  • Everything we do at Wendy's is focused on bringing to life our vision of becoming the world's most striving and beloved restaurant brand. I am confident that the significant momentum in our business and the sound execution of our key priorities laid out today, will deliver a new year of efficient, accelerated growth.

    我們在 Wendy's 所做的一切都專注於實現我們成為世界上最有活力和最受歡迎的餐廳品牌的願景。我相信,我們業務的強勁勢頭和我們今天制定的關鍵優先事項的良好執行,將為新的一年帶來高效、加速的增長。

  • I'll now turn it over to GP to share our 2023 financial outlook and our long-term financial algorithm.

    我現在將其轉交給 GP 來分享我們的 2023 年財務展望和我們的長期財務算法。

  • Gunther Plosch - CFO

    Gunther Plosch - CFO

  • Thanks, Todd. Our financial outlook reflects our continued sales momentum and compelling profit growth, supported by the foundational strength fortified in 2022 and the plans we have in place for 2023 and beyond.

    謝謝,托德。在 2022 年鞏固的基礎實力和我們為 2023 年及以後製定的計劃的支持下,我們的財務前景反映了我們持續的銷售勢頭和引人注目的利潤增長。

  • Now let's take a deeper look into our key financial metrics, starting with global systemwide sales. We expect to deliver significant sales growth of 6% to 8% this year, driven by mid-single-digit global same-restaurant sales and our sequentially increasing global net unit growth of 2% to 3%. We expect mid-single-digit annual systemwide sales growth in 2024 and 2025. We anticipate a slight acceleration in 2025 as unit growth picks up to 3% to 4% and global same-restaurant sales continue to grow in the low single digits.

    現在讓我們更深入地了解我們的關鍵財務指標,從全球系統銷售額開始。我們預計今年的銷售額將實現 6% 至 8% 的顯著增長,這得益於全球同店銷售額中等個位數以及我們連續增長 2% 至 3% 的全球淨單位增長。我們預計 2024 年和 2025 年全系統年銷售額將實現中等個位數增長。我們預計 2025 年將略有加速,因為單位增長率將回升至 3% 至 4%,全球同店銷售額將繼續以較低的個位數增長。

  • Now on to adjusted EBITDA, which we expect to grow to approximately $530 million to $540 million this year. We expect our strong top line to be our biggest driver of growth, benefiting both royalties and our company-operated restaurant EBITDA. We are expecting U.S. company-operated restaurant margin will return to pre-COVID levels, averaging approximately 15% to 16%, as we anticipate that the benefit of our sales growth, including cumulative pricing of approximately 6%, as well as easing commodity and labor inflation in the mid-single digits will drive year-over-year margin expansion.

    現在調整後的 EBITDA,我們預計今年將增長到大約 5.3 億至 5.4 億美元。我們預計我們強勁的收入將成為我們增長的最大動力,使特許權使用費和我們公司經營的餐廳的 EBITDA 受益。我們預計美國公司經營的餐廳利潤率將恢復到 COVID 之前的水平,平均約為 15% 至 16%,因為我們預計我們的銷售增長帶來的好處,包括約 6% 的累計定價,以及寬鬆的商品和中個位數的勞動力通脹將推動利潤率同比增長。

  • Please note that on a global basis, we continue to expect that our start-up investment and ongoing inflationary pressures in the U.K. market will represent a headwind slightly north of 50 basis points to global company-operated restaurant margin. We also expect a tailwind as our incremental investment in breakfast advertising will step down to approximately $2 million this year as our investment in the U.S. breakfast business has ended as planned. We anticipate that these increases will be partially offset by slightly lower net franchise fees and net rental income in addition to lower other operating income as we lap a gain from insurance recoveries.

    請注意,在全球範圍內,我們繼續預計我們在英國市場的啟動投資和持續的通脹壓力將對全球公司經營的餐廳利潤率造成略高於 50 個基點的逆風。我們還預計,隨著我們對美國早餐業務的投資已按計劃結束,今年我們對早餐廣告的增量投資將減少至約 200 萬美元。我們預計這些增長將被略微降低的淨特許經營費和淨租金收入以及較低的其他營業收入所抵消,因為我們從保險回收中獲得收益。

  • We expect free cash flow to grow to approximately $265 million to $275 million this year, primarily driven by an increase in our core earnings. We also expect to benefit from lower CapEx of approximately $75 million to $85 million as we'll have the initial ramp-up in the rollout of new DSGs in our company-operated restaurants and expect fewer company new builds, partially offset by technology investments to support digital acceleration in our company-operated restaurants. Additionally, we expect lower cloud computing arrangement cash outlays as we completed the first phase of our ERP implementation in 2022.

    我們預計今年自由現金流將增長至約 2.65 億美元至 2.75 億美元,這主要是受我們核心收益增長的推動。我們還預計將受益於大約 7500 萬美元至 8500 萬美元的資本支出降低,因為我們將在公司經營的餐廳中首次推出新的 DSG,並預計公司新建的建築將減少,部分被技術投資所抵消支持我們公司經營的餐廳的數字加速。此外,隨著我們在 2022 年完成 ERP 實施的第一階段,我們預計雲計算安排的現金支出會減少。

  • Finally, our free cash flow will benefit from lapping an increase in payments for incentive compensation for the 2021 fiscal year, paid in 2022. We anticipate that these increases will be partially offset by higher cash taxes as a result of our expected increased earnings and timing impact and approximately $6 million in reorganization and realignment costs related to the organizational redesign we are undertaking.

    最後,我們的自由現金流將受益於 2022 年支付的 2021 財年激勵薪酬支付的增加。我們預計,由於我們預期的收入和時間安排增加,這些增加將部分被更高的現金稅所抵消影響以及與我們正在進行的組織重新設計相關的大約 600 萬美元的重組和調整費用。

  • Turning to the long term. We expect high single-digit to low double-digit annual free cash flow growth in 2024 and 2025, driven by increased systemwide sales, continued company-operated restaurant margin expansion, efficient G&A and the step-down in cash outlays related to cloud computing arrangements as our ERP implementation is completed in 2023.

    轉向長期。我們預計 2024 年和 2025 年的年度自由現金流量將實現高個位數到低兩位數的增長,這得益於全系統銷售額的增加、公司經營的餐廳利潤率的持續擴張、高效的 G&A 以及與雲計算安排相關的現金支出的減少因為我們的 ERP 實施將於 2023 年完成。

  • To close out our outlook discussion, we expect an increase in our adjusted EPS in 2023 to $0.95 to $1, primarily driven by the anticipated increase in our adjusted EBITDA. We also expect to benefit from higher interest income as a result of a higher cash balance. We expect these increases will be partially offset by higher amortization of cloud computing arrangement costs, a higher tax rate and an increase in interest expense.

    為了結束我們的前景討論,我們預計 2023 年調整後的每股收益將增加至 0.95 美元至 1 美元,這主要是由於我們調整後的 EBITDA 的預期增長。由於現金餘額增加,我們還預計將受益於更高的利息收入。我們預計這些增長將部分被雲計算安排成本的更高攤銷、更高的稅率和利息支出的增加所抵消。

  • Our accelerated financial outlook over the short and long term represents the new gear of growth. Our disciplined focus and sound execution against our strategic priorities can deliver.

    我們加速的短期和長期財務前景代表了新的增長方式。我們對戰略重點的嚴格關注和良好執行可以實現。

  • Finally, as we shared in January, our capital allocation policy is unchanged. And our first priority remains investing in the business for growth which we will continue to do while remaining true to our asset-light model. Second, we are committed to maintaining an attractive dividend. As previously announced, we are doubling our quarterly dividend to $0.25 per share beginning in the first quarter and expect a full year dividend of $1 per share in 2023, representing an over 100% dividend payout ratio. We expect to maintain similarly strong dividends per share moving forward as supported by our anticipated strong free cash flow growth and other factors, subject to the discretion of our Board of Directors.

    最後,正如我們在 1 月份分享的那樣,我們的資本配置政策沒有改變。我們的首要任務仍然是投資業務以實現增長,我們將繼續這樣做,同時忠於我們的輕資產模式。其次,我們致力於保持有吸引力的股息。正如之前宣布的那樣,我們將從第一季度開始將季度股息翻一番,達到每股 0.25 美元,並預計 2023 年的全年股息為每股 1 美元,這意味著超過 100% 的股息支付率。在我們預期強勁的自由現金流增長和其他因素的支持下,我們預計未來將保持同樣強勁的每股股息,具體取決於我們董事會的酌情決定權。

  • Lastly, we will utilize excess cash to repurchase shares and reduce debt. We have resumed share repurchases under our previously announced $500 million authorization expiring in February of 2027. Our Board of Directors also approved an additional opportunistic debt repurchase authorization of $50 million expiring in February of 2024, resulting in total expected debt repurchases of up to $75 million this year.

    最後,我們將利用多餘的現金回購股票並減少債務。根據我們之前宣布的將於 2027 年 2 月到期的 5 億美元授權,我們已恢復股票回購。我們的董事會還批准了一項額外的 5000 萬美元機會主義債務回購授權,將於 2024 年 2 月到期,導致預計總債務回購高達 7500 萬美元今年。

  • Our balance sheet is strong and flexible with an elevated cash balance and a securitized debt structure with fixed rates and no need to refinance until 2026. We have positioned ourselves to weather any macroeconomic headwinds that may arise while driving continued growth.

    我們的資產負債表強勁而靈活,現金餘額增加,固定利率的證券化債務結構,在 2026 年之前無需再融資。我們已做好準備,以應對在推動持續增長的同時可能出現的任何宏觀經濟逆風。

  • We are fully committed to continue delivering our simple, yet powerful formula. We're an accelerated, efficient growth company that is investing in our growth pillars and driving strong systemwide sales growth on the backdrop of positive same-restaurant sales and expanding our global footprint. This is translating into significant free cash flows which supports meaningful return of cash to shareholders through an attractive dividend and share repurchases.

    我們完全致力於繼續提供我們簡單而強大的配方。我們是一家加速、高效增長的公司,在積極的同店銷售和擴大我們的全球足蹟的背景下,投資於我們的增長支柱並推動強勁的全系統銷售增長。這轉化為可觀的自由現金流,支持通過有吸引力的股息和股票回購向股東返還有意義的現金。

  • With that, I will hand things over to Kelsey to walk through our upcoming IR calendar.

    有了這個,我將把事情交給 Kelsey 來完成我們即將推出的 IR 日曆。

  • Kelsey Freed

    Kelsey Freed

  • Thanks, GP. To start things off, we have an NDR in Boston with Credit Suisse on March 8, followed by a virtual NDR focused on the West Coast with Morgan Stanley on March 13. On March 15, we will attend the UBS conference in New York, followed by the Citi Conference in Miami on March 16. If you are interested in joining us at any of these events, please contact the respective sell-side analyst or equity sales contact at the host firm. Lastly, we plan to report our first quarter earnings and host a conference call that same day on May 10.

    謝謝,全科醫生。首先,我們於 3 月 8 日在波士頓與瑞士信貸舉行了 NDR,然後是 3 月 13 日與摩根士丹利在西海岸舉行的虛擬 NDR。3 月 15 日,我們將參加在紐約舉行的瑞銀會議,隨後花旗會議於 3 月 16 日在邁阿密舉行。如果您有興趣參加我們的任何這些活動,請聯繫相應的賣方分析師或主辦公司的股票銷售聯繫人。最後,我們計劃在 5 月 10 日當天報告第一季度收益並召開電話會議。

  • As we transition into our Q&A section, I wanted to remind everyone that due to the high number of covering analysts, we will be limiting everyone to one question only. With that, we are ready to take your questions.

    當我們過渡到問答部分時,我想提醒大家,由於涵蓋的分析師人數眾多,我們將限制每個人只回答一個問題。這樣,我們就可以回答您的問題了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) The first question comes from the line of Dennis Geiger of UBS.

    (操作員說明)第一個問題來自瑞銀(UBS)的丹尼斯蓋格(Dennis Geiger)。

  • Dennis Geiger - Director and Equity Research Analyst of Restaurants

    Dennis Geiger - Director and Equity Research Analyst of Restaurants

  • Great. And Todd, thanks for all the color on the unit growth commentary, extremely helpful. I was wondering if you could talk a little bit more though about the development outlook, maybe specific to franchisee demand in the current environment as it relates to some of the macro headwinds, but then offset by a lot of the brand-specific drivers that you mentioned. And just as you answer that, is there any additional commentary on the U.S. pipeline, you mentioned 300 potential candidates. Any way to kind of frame that up relative to history would be helpful.

    偉大的。托德,感謝單位增長評論中的所有顏色,非常有幫助。我想知道你是否可以多談談發展前景,也許是針對當前環境中的加盟商需求,因為它與一些宏觀逆風有關,但隨後被許多品牌特定的驅動因素所抵消提及。就在您回答這個問題時,是否還有關於美國管道的其他評論,您提到了 300 名潛在候選人。任何一種將其與歷史聯繫起來的方式都會有所幫助。

  • Todd Allan Penegor - President, CEO & Director

    Todd Allan Penegor - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes, Dennis, thanks for the question. We are in constant contact with the franchise community and really look and partner with them to understand the financial demands that they're under with a lot of the investment choices that they need to make. We've got continued work to do on reimaging. Got a lot of work that we want to do on new unit builds. We've got some investments that we want to continue to make in technology as well as the new DSG 2.0. And we're partnering with the system to make sure that they continue to see strong economic returns for new investments into new builds.

    是的,丹尼斯,謝謝你的提問。我們一直與特許經營社區保持聯繫,真正關注他們並與他們合作,以了解他們所面臨的財務需求以及他們需要做出的許多投資選擇。我們在重新映像方面需要繼續努力。有很多我們想在新單位建造上做的工作。我們已經進行了一些投資,我們希望繼續在技術以及新的 DSG 2.0 方面進行投資。我們正在與該系統合作,以確保他們繼續看到新投資對新建築的強勁經濟回報。

  • And -- as we mentioned today in the prepared remarks, we just announced another incentive program, the new Pacesetter program, which basically doubles the incentive, a full suite of tools that we now have. We got base incentives in our business. We've got the groundbreaker program. We've got the Pacesetter program, and we've got the Build-to-Suit program. And those are all tools that can help large franchisees, can help small franchisees really customized to their balance sheet, the investments that they need to make to continue to grow our business.

    而且 - 正如我們今天在準備好的評論中提到的那樣,我們剛剛宣布了另一個激勵計劃,即新的 Pacesetter 計劃,它基本上使激勵翻了一番,這是我們現在擁有的一整套工具。我們在業務中獲得了基本激勵。我們有開創性計劃。我們有 Pacesetter 計劃,我們有 Build-to-Suit 計劃。這些都是可以幫助大型加盟商的工具,可以幫助小型加盟商真正根據他們的資產負債表進行定制,他們需要進行投資以繼續發展我們的業務。

  • And as you think about the momentum that we had during the course of last year, the improvements that GP talked about in the prepared remarks on margins throughout the year, we've got a couple of quarters that were a little more challenged over -- at the beginning of last year that will start to drop off from a franchise-health perspective as they look at their debt covenants and their outlook which will put them in an even better position to continue to invest in growth moving forward.

    當你想到我們去年的勢頭,GP 在準備好的全年利潤率評論中談到的改進時,我們有幾個季度面臨更多挑戰——去年年初,當他們審視自己的債務契約和前景時,從特許經營健康的角度來看,這將開始下降,這將使他們處於一個更好的位置,可以繼續投資於未來的增長。

  • So we feel good that the pipeline is in place. We've got programs in place to deliver that 2% to 3% net unit growth this year, should be a step-up from the net 2.1% that we had in 2022, and we'll continue to work with them to work through all the challenges on the construction delays that they've continued to see the last couple of years to make sure that we get those open this year.

    所以我們對管道到位感到很好。我們已經制定了今年實現 2% 到 3% 單位淨增長的計劃,這應該比我們 2022 年的 2.1% 淨增長有所提高,我們將繼續與他們合作,通過在過去的幾年裡,他們繼續看到施工延誤的所有挑戰,以確保我們今年能夠開放這些項目。

  • As we said in the prepared remarks, groundbreaker in the U.S. is a big proportion. We've got a significant portion of our outlook lined up under groundbreaker. We know the commitments that folks have made for 2023, and we're on track with all of those commitments. So we feel good about that outlook.

    正如我們在準備好的發言中所說,美國的開創者佔很大比例。我們的前景中有很大一部分是在開創性的情況下排列的。我們知道人們為 2023 年做出的承諾,並且我們正在按計劃履行所有這些承諾。所以我們對這種前景感覺良好。

  • The new franchisees coming on board, 40 new ones last year. They're now in a position to start building that pipeline. We start to see that take place into 2024, into 2025 with the step up. And then we're really trying to fill the funnel with this new Pacesetter incentive to start to get some more commitments into late '25, '26, '27, so we can continue the acceleration on growth moving forward.

    新加盟商加入,去年有 40 家新加盟商。他們現在可以開始建設該管道。我們開始看到這種情況發生到 2024 年,隨著升級到 2025 年。然後我們真的在嘗試用這個新的 Pacesetter 激勵措施來填補漏斗,以開始在 25 年末、26 年、27 年末做出更多承諾,這樣我們就可以繼續加速向前發展。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Brian Bittner of Oppenheimer.

    下一個問題來自 Oppenheimer 的 Brian Bittner。

  • Brian John Bittner - MD & Senior Analyst

    Brian John Bittner - MD & Senior Analyst

  • Thank you. Todd and GP, and yes, thanks for all the color this morning. In your long-term outlook, when you look past 2023, you now expect to generate high single to low double-digit free cash flow growth, which represents very strong conversion from the systemwide sales outlook of mid-single digits. So -- the question is just generally speaking, should we think about EBITDA growth tracking similarly to free cash flow in the long-term model? Or should we be thinking about EBITDA growth differently? I know that there's cash computing outlays that end in 2023. So perhaps that's helping free cash flow growth a little bit. But if you could [unpack] that dynamic, that would be helpful.

    謝謝。 Todd 和 GP,是的,感謝今天早上所有的顏色。在您的長期展望中,當您展望 2023 年之後,您現在預計將產生高個位數到低兩位數的自由現金流增長,這代表了從中等個位數的全系統銷售前景的非常強勁的轉換。所以——這個問題只是一般來說,我們是否應該考慮在長期模型中類似於自由現金流的 EBITDA 增長跟踪?或者我們應該以不同的方式考慮 EBITDA 增長嗎?我知道現金計算支出將在 2023 年結束。所以這或許有助於自由現金流的增長。但如果你能[解壓]那種動態,那將會很有幫助。

  • Gunther Plosch - CFO

    Gunther Plosch - CFO

  • Brian. Yes, we are very confident with our high single to low double-digit free cash flow growth for the outlook period. Really a key driver is the high confidence of mid-single-digit revenue growth that translates into profit and it's further helped by continued margin expansion in our company restaurant footprint. We do think that, that provides further cash, definitely efficient G&A. We are saying we are staying relatively flat in '23 and '24, for '25 as a percent of global system sales is about in line with 2024.

    布萊恩。是的,我們對展望期內高個位數到低兩位數的自由現金流增長非常有信心。真正的一個關鍵驅動因素是對中等個位數收入增長的高度信心,這種增長轉化為利潤,而且我們公司餐廳足蹟的利潤率持續擴張進一步幫助了這一點。我們確實認為,這提供了更多的現金,絕對有效的 G&A。我們說我們在 23 年和 24 年保持相對平穩,因為 25 年佔全球系統銷售額的百分比與 2024 年大致持平。

  • And then what we have is -- we definitely have a step down in cloud computing arrangements to about $10 million. So that's a pretty big tailwind. Remember, cloud computing cost in 2022 were about $30 million, stepping down to about $25 million in 2023. And then once we are finished with all our ERP stuff in 2023, that steps down further to about $10 million.

    然後我們所擁有的是 - 我們肯定會將雲計算安排減少到大約 1000 萬美元。所以這是一個很大的順風。請記住,2022 年的雲計算成本約為 3000 萬美元,到 2023 年將降至約 2500 萬美元。然後,一旦我們在 2023 年完成所有 ERP 工作,成本將進一步降至約 1000 萬美元。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from David Palmer of Evercore.

    下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 David Palmer。

  • David Sterling Palmer - Senior MD & Fundamental Research Analyst

    David Sterling Palmer - Senior MD & Fundamental Research Analyst

  • I wanted to circle back on the unit growth. You mentioned some interesting statistics, the 300 newly approved franchisees in the pipeline. And with those incentives that you mentioned, the 2-year payback. Those are pretty compelling statistics. I mean if you were to have 300 franchisees each open one unit, that would mean 5% unit growth in the U.S. or 4% globally. So I'm wondering how does that pipeline play into unit growth? And do they get onboarded and do they start opening up right away? Or is that something you imagine over many years?

    我想回到單位增長上。你提到了一些有趣的統計數據,300 家新批准的特許經營商正在籌備中。有了你提到的那些激勵措施,2 年的回報。這些是非常引人注目的統計數據。我的意思是,如果您有 300 個特許經營商,每家開設一個單位,那將意味著美國單位增長 5% 或全球增長 4%。所以我想知道這條管道如何影響單位增長?他們是否入職並立即開始開放?或者這是你多年以來的想像?

  • And then I just -- also, we get a lot of questions about just the nature or the reasons for the management structure reorganization. If you could just give a bit of color as to why that happened and what it means? That would be helpful.

    然後我只是——而且,我們收到了很多關於管理結構重組的性質或原因的問題。您是否可以就發生這種情況的原因及其含義給出一些顏色?那會很有幫助。

  • Todd Allan Penegor - President, CEO & Director

    Todd Allan Penegor - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes, David, when you think about the development pipeline, bringing in and improving new franchisees, getting them trained, getting them set up to be ready to be great operators in the systems takes a little bit of time. And then getting those new restaurants set takes a bit of time. When you think about total process, you've probably got a couple of years from the time you think about trying to build a restaurant to the time you get a restaurant open. The construction fees, which is in the middle of all of that, is about 6 months.

    是的,大衛,當你考慮開發管道、引進和改進新的特許經營商、培訓他們、讓他們做好準備成為系統中的優秀運營商時,需要一點時間。然後設置這些新餐廳需要一些時間。當您考慮整個過程時,從您考慮嘗試建立一家餐廳到您開一家餐廳,您可能有幾年的時間。中間的建築費大約是 6 個月。

  • So this is a pipeline, as we onboard these folks, that continues to build, and that's why you see the 2% to 3% this year, which is a step-up from last. You see the 2% to 3% net unit growth that we're talking about next year, airing towards the high end. So we start to build some momentum and then even more growth into 2025 with the 3% to 4% growth.

    所以這是一條管道,當我們加入這些人時,它會繼續建設,這就是為什麼你今年看到 2% 到 3%,這是去年的一個提升。你會看到我們明年談論的 2% 到 3% 的淨單位增長,向高端傳播。因此,我們開始建立一些勢頭,然後在 2025 年實現 3% 至 4% 的增長。

  • The tools are out there. So we got a full suite. And it really is what does the franchise need to support growth, right? You got the Build-to-Suit program with less capital outlay upfront, but a 6% royalty over time. You got the strong build -- the groundbreaker program that's in place today that allows you to have a 4% royalty on an ongoing basis after you have the abatements upfront. And the Pacesetter, which is even stronger with more abatements for longer upfront, then ultimately gets a 5% royalty long term. So you've got choices and that all leads into our confidence in that building pipeline into the future.

    工具就在那裡。所以我們得到了一個完整的套件。這真的是特許經營需要什麼來支持增長,對吧?您獲得了 Build-to-Suit 計劃,前期資本支出較少,但隨著時間的推移會收取 6% 的特許權使用費。你得到了強大的構建 - 今天實施的開創性計劃允許你在預先減少費用後持續獲得 4% 的特許權使用費。 Pacesetter 更強大,前期更長時間的減排更多,最終獲得 5% 的長期特許權使用費。所以你有選擇,所有這些都會讓我們對未來的建設管道充滿信心。

  • On the organizational redesign, it really came down to a couple of things, right? We had to think a lot more globally. We had to make sure that we're supporting our international business. We got to share best practices across marketing and digital even more to support not just the U.S. business, but our international business. And we needed to streamline decision-making and organizational efficiency to go faster every step of the way on the decisions.

    關於組織重新設計,它真的歸結為幾件事,對嗎?我們必須在全球範圍內進行更多思考。我們必須確保我們支持我們的國際業務。我們必須更多地分享營銷和數字領域的最佳實踐,以不僅支持美國業務,還支持我們的國際業務。我們需要簡化決策制定和組織效率,以加快決策過程中的每一步。

  • We did make a lot of investments over the last couple of years. When you think about investments in the tech team, investments in the development team. And our G&A increased from about $200 million to about $255 million. And what we're saying is now we're going to hold that relatively flattish. We're going to make sure that reprioritizing the time and effort of our teams, trying to make sure that we got the focus against our strategic growth pillars, driving digital, getting new restaurants open ultimately driving our same restaurant sales growth and the moves that we made in the organizational structure support that, and we're very much focused on making sure we can bring that to life in an even bigger way moving forward.

    在過去的幾年裡,我們確實進行了大量投資。當您考慮對技術團隊的投資時,對開發團隊的投資。我們的 G&A 從大約 2 億美元增加到大約 2.55 億美元。我們現在要說的是,我們將保持相對平穩。我們將確保重新安排我們團隊的時間和精力,努力確保我們將重點放在我們的戰略增長支柱上,推動數字化,開設新餐廳最終推動我們相同的餐廳銷售增長和舉措我們在組織結構中做出了支持,並且我們非常專注於確保我們能夠以更大的方式將其付諸實踐。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Brian Harbour of Morgan Stanley.

    下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的布賴恩港。

  • Brian James Harbour - Research Associate

    Brian James Harbour - Research Associate

  • Yes. Maybe just on some of the comments you made on your same-store sales outlook. Can you talk directionally about kind of the different drivers of that? I think there was a 6% pricing comment. I didn't know if that was for the full year '23 or if that was just to start the year? And do you expect -- how do you expect traffic to trend within that? How do you expect kind of mix to trend? Do you think that breakfast will still be more of the traffic driver versus other dayparts? Wondering if you can just provide some more detail about that.

    是的。也許只是你對同店銷售前景的一些評論。您能否定向談談其中的不同驅動因素?我認為有 6% 的定價評論。我不知道那是針對 23 年全年還是只是年初?您是否期望 - 您期望其中的流量趨勢如何?您如何看待混合趨勢?與其他時段相比,您是否認為早餐仍將是更多的交通司機?想知道您是否可以提供更多相關細節。

  • Gunther Plosch - CFO

    Gunther Plosch - CFO

  • Brian. Yes, so a little bit more color commentary on the 2023 outlook, right? As we said, global systemwide sales growth is 6% to 8%. And we are expecting single-digit global same-restaurant sales. A little bit more color. We do expect clearly in the first quarter, mid-single digits to high single-digit growth since we are lapping some of the Omicron weakness and bad weather in the first quarter and then we expect for the rest of the year, mid-single-digit growth forward.

    布萊恩。是的,對 2023 年的前景有更多的色彩評論,對吧?正如我們所說,全球全系統銷售額增長率為 6% 至 8%。我們預計全球同一家餐廳的銷售額將達到個位數。多一點顏色。我們確實預計第一季度會出現中個位數到高個位數的增長,因為我們在第一季度克服了 Omicron 的一些疲軟和惡劣天氣,然後我們預計今年剩餘時間,中個位數-數字增長向前。

  • In terms of kind of customer count, definitely, our assessment continues to be that the customer is under pressure. We would expect that our customer counts are about going to be flat or slightly down, which is actually a very strong sequential improvement versus prior year.

    就客戶數量而言,當然,我們的評估仍然是客戶面臨壓力。我們預計我們的客戶數量將持平或略有下降,這實際上與上一年相比是一個非常強勁的連續改善。

  • Just to comment a little bit on pricing. So the 6% pricing that we talked about in the prepared remarks, was related to our company restaurants. And it's basically about 5% carryover pricing. Remember, we took several price increases through the last year that are annualizing and we have only a small price increase in -- during the year to make our P&L work. And that's the positive thing about all of that. We're expecting mid-single-digit labor and commodity inflation and we can get away with a very small new price increase to get us actually into pre-COVID margin levels for the U.S., in the 15% to 16% range.

    只是對定價發表一些評論。因此,我們在準備好的評論中談到的 6% 定價與我們公司的餐廳有關。它基本上是大約 5% 的結轉定價。請記住,我們在去年進行了幾次價格上漲,這些價格是年度化的,而且我們在這一年中只有小幅價格上漲,以使我們的損益表發揮作用。這就是所有這一切的積極之處。我們預計勞動力和大宗商品的通脹率將達到中個位數,我們可以通過非常小的新價格上漲來擺脫困境,使我們實際上達到 COVID 之前美國的利潤率水平,在 15% 到 16% 的範圍內。

  • That's all I had. Any more color from you Todd?

    這就是我的全部。托德,你還有什麼顏色嗎?

  • Todd Allan Penegor - President, CEO & Director

    Todd Allan Penegor - President, CEO & Director

  • Just a few comments as you think about how we're managing the calendar during the year, right? A real focus on our ownable core products. You'll see us to continue to talk about the messaging of our unique differences around fresh and what fresh, never-frozen beef stands for. We've got a lineup of some exciting new innovation throughout the year. We'll continue to make sure we've got compelling value offers so we can play on both sides of the barbell to continue to bring traffic in the door. And we still have opportunities as we start to get staffing in a better position to drive speed and consistency in our restaurants. So those will all be fuel items along the way.

    當您考慮我們如何管理這一年的日曆時,請發表一些評論,對嗎?真正專注於我們自己的核心產品。您會看到我們繼續談論我們在新鮮和新鮮、從未冷凍的牛肉方面的獨特差異所傳達的信息。全年我們都有一系列令人興奮的新創新。我們將繼續確保我們提供有吸引力的價值,這樣我們就可以在槓鈴的兩邊發揮作用,繼續帶來流量。我們仍然有機會,因為我們開始讓員工處於更好的位置,以提高我們餐廳的速度和一致性。所以這些都是一路上的燃料。

  • We'll look at a little more check realization during the course of the year and probably see traffic relatively flat to maybe even slightly down as we know the consumer is still under pressure.

    我們將在這一年中查看更多的支票實現,並且可能會看到流量相對平穩甚至可能略有下降,因為我們知道消費者仍然面臨壓力。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Silberman Lauren of Credit Suisse.

    下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Silberman Lauren。

  • Lauren Danielle Silberman - Senior Analyst

    Lauren Danielle Silberman - Senior Analyst

  • It's Lauren. So just a quick follow-up on the prior question. Can you just talk about how you're thinking about the traffic versus check contribution in the out years beyond '23? And then my actual question is just on value and how you're thinking about the value environment in '23, if you're seeing any changes in terms of the uptick for your value deals amongst consumers?

    是勞倫。所以只是對先前問題的快速跟進。你能談談你是如何考慮 23 年後的流量與支票貢獻的嗎?然後我的實際問題只是關於價值以及你如何看待 23 年的價值環境,如果你看到消費者之間的價值交易上升方面有任何變化?

  • Gunther Plosch - CFO

    Gunther Plosch - CFO

  • Lauren. Yes, beyond 2023, we definitely expect same-restaurant sales to step down a little bit to low single digits. And it's really an expectation that the trading environment will normalize, right? We have enjoyed elevated pricing levels. Those are going to come down. As a result of it, we would also expect that traffic levels will normalize, and that's going to be the focus why we actually can maintain on a long-term basis beyond 2023, a mid-single-digit guidance from a sales point of view is we are expecting the unit growth to go up.

    勞倫。是的,到 2023 年以後,我們絕對預計同店銷售額會略微下降至低個位數。這真的是對貿易環境正常化的期望,對吧?我們享受了更高的定價水平。那些會下降。因此,我們還預計流量水平將正常化,這將成為我們實際上可以在 2023 年以後長期保持的重點,從銷售的角度來看,中個位數的指導我們是否期望單位增長會上升。

  • And as you have probably realized, is a big portion of our unit growth, about 90% is traditional growth. So more sales due to higher AUVs are sticking into our sales numbers, and it drives basically the combined outlook there.

    正如您可能已經意識到的那樣,這是我們單位增長的很大一部分,大約 90% 是傳統增長。因此,由於更高的 AUV 而導致的更多銷售正在進入我們的銷售數字,並且它基本上推動了那裡的綜合前景。

  • From a competitive point of view, I would say the QSR category is definitely always competitive. We are definitely seeing as a late trading down from mid-scale casual into QSR, that helps. I would also say, whilst I'm saying it's competitive, we don't expect the value wars of 2018. And we have our products that we only can own with our 4 for $4, with our Biggie Bag. Sometimes we have time-bound promotions like 2 for $6, and you can absolutely expect us to continue to innovate in this space to stay competitive with all our consumers that love our products.

    從競爭的角度來看,我想說 QSR 類別肯定總是有競爭力的。我們肯定看到從中檔休閒到 QSR 的後期交易,這有幫助。我還要說,雖然我說它具有競爭力,但我們預計 2018 年不會出現價值戰。而且我們的產品只能以 4 美元的價格購買 4 件,還有我們的 Biggie Bag。有時我們會推出限時促銷活動,例如 6 美元 2 件,您絕對可以期待我們在這個領域繼續創新,以與所有喜愛我們產品的消費者保持競爭力。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Jeffrey Bernstein of Barclays.

    下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的杰弗裡伯恩斯坦。

  • Jeffrey Andrew Bernstein - Director & Senior Equity Research Analyst

    Jeffrey Andrew Bernstein - Director & Senior Equity Research Analyst

  • Just looking at the unit growth outlook for the next few years, the 2% to 3% ultimately ramping up to 3% to 4%. I think you mentioned that 70% of that net growth over the next few years is coming from international, which has been an area that I guess has been more challenged to grow in the past. So I'm wondering if you can maybe address maybe what you think the lead markets would be, your confidence and success versus maybe past attempts? And then the AUV and the royalties versus the U.S., just trying to size up the value of an international unit versus a domestic unit? Any kind of incremental color you could provide on the confidence to be able to sustain that level of growth this time around would be great.

    看看未來幾年的單位增長前景,2% 到 3% 最終會上升到 3% 到 4%。我想你提到過未來幾年 70% 的淨增長來自國際,我認為這是一個過去增長面臨更大挑戰的領域。所以我想知道你是否可以解決你認為領先市場的問題,你的信心和成功與過去的嘗試相比?然後是 AUV 和特許權使用費與美國的比較,只是想衡量國際單位與國內單位的價值?您可以提供任何一種增量顏色來增強這次能夠維持這種增長水平的信心,這將是很棒的。

  • Todd Allan Penegor - President, CEO & Director

    Todd Allan Penegor - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. Thanks, Jeff, for the question. And the great news is you look at the last several years on our international business, we've had a lot of momentum around same-restaurant sales and a lot of momentum around profit, which gives folks confidence to continue to grow around the globe.

    是的。謝謝杰夫提出這個問題。好消息是,看看過去幾年我們的國際業務,我們在同店銷售和利潤方面都有很大的動力,這讓人們有信心在全球範圍內繼續發展。

  • There's a couple of areas where we've made some bets. Clearly, going with company restaurants into the U.K. We've -- at the end of 2022, we had 12 company restaurants. We had 29 restaurants in total, which included 16 REEF and one traditional franchisee. We do think by the end of 2023, we'll be 45 restaurants strong across that portfolio. That will give us kind of that home base to continue to drive growth into Spain and into Ireland. We got the supply chain in place. We're working on partners. We've got master franchise arrangements. We're trying to get in place to really accelerate that growth in 2024 and beyond, as we said in the prepared remarks.

    我們在幾個領域下了賭注。顯然,與公司餐廳一起進入英國。到 2022 年底,我們擁有 12 家公司餐廳。我們共有 29 家餐廳,其中包括 16 家 REEF 和 1 家傳統加盟商。我們確實認為到 2023 年底,我們將在該組合中擁有 45 家強大的餐廳。這將為我們提供一個大本營,以繼續推動西班牙和愛爾蘭的增長。我們已經建立了供應鏈。我們正在研究合作夥伴。我們有主要的特許經營安排。正如我們在準備好的發言中所說,我們正努力在 2024 年及以後真正加速增長。

  • We also got some big development agreements in place in the Philippines. We've got a 200-restaurant development commitment by 2030, 60 are already opened. The great news is a lot of success in that market with a focus now on higher AUV drive-thru restaurants. In India, we got a 400-restaurant commitment over the next 10 years with Rebel Foods being our master franchisee. And they got 90 dark kitchens to date. The focus in 2023 is going to be on traditional freestanding restaurants to drive brand presence and really have a great hub-and-spoke design in that market moving forward.

    我們還在菲律賓簽署了一些大型開發協議。到 2030 年,我們已承諾發展 200 家餐廳,其中 60 家已經開業。好消息是在該市場取得了很大的成功,現在的重點是更高的 AUV 得來速餐廳。在印度,我們承諾在未來 10 年內開設 400 家餐廳,Rebel Foods 是我們的主要特許經營商。迄今為止,他們擁有 90 個黑暗廚房。 2023 年的重點將放在傳統的獨立式餐廳上,以推動品牌影響力,並在該市場向前發展時真正擁有出色的軸輻式設計。

  • And then longer term out, we're starting to prospect for Australia right now, and you saw some of that news get popped out there today. In nearer in, we still think there's a lot of growth in the U.S. Canada, we got a lot of momentum in that business, as we talked about in the remarks. We've been growing share and have a really strong and healthy model up there and bringing new franchisees on board. So we think we can continue to build out that market.

    然後從長遠來看,我們現在開始展望澳大利亞,您看到其中一些新聞今天突然出現。在更近的地方,我們仍然認為美國加拿大有很多增長,正如我們在評論中談到的那樣,我們在該業務中獲得了很大的發展勢頭。我們的份額一直在增長,並擁有一個非常強大和健康的模式,並吸引了新的加盟商。所以我們認為我們可以繼續建立這個市場。

  • And then Mexico is the last that I would talk about that we've had a lot of success, a lot of strong growth. And we've got momentum and new partners coming in to help grow out that market. So that gives us the confidence, strong franchise partners and a lot of momentum in the business.

    然後墨西哥是我要談論的最後一個,我們已經取得了很大的成功,實現了強勁的增長。我們有動力和新的合作夥伴進來幫助發展這個市場。因此,這給了我們信心、強大的特許經營合作夥伴和業務的巨大動力。

  • GP do you want to comment a little bit about AUVs and contribution on the international markets?

    GP 你想談談 AUV 和對國際市場的貢獻嗎?

  • Gunther Plosch - CFO

    Gunther Plosch - CFO

  • Yes, I can give a little bit more color, right? As you see from the comments from Todd. Europe, in general, is a higher AUV market. As a result, it's a good focus for us. Same thing in Asia, right, the shift to more traditional restaurants or drive-thru restaurants. Again, we are shifting to higher AUV numbers. Look in Latin America, same thing. Mexico has high AUVs, very profitable for franchisees, guess what? That's why they're focused. Canada, a lot of untapped potential, especially in Quebec. We have a lot of new franchisees signed up and we get going in that market with high AUVs and then last but not least, obviously, our biggest market with the U.S., very high AUVs with lots growth to be had.

    是的,我可以多給一點顏色,對吧?正如您從 Todd 的評論中看到的那樣。總的來說,歐洲是一個更高的AUV市場。因此,這對我們來說是一個很好的重點。亞洲也一樣,對,轉向更傳統的餐廳或得來速餐廳。同樣,我們正在轉向更高的 AUV 數量。看看拉丁美洲,同樣的事情。墨西哥的 AUV 很高,對加盟商來說非常有利可圖,你猜怎麼著?這就是他們專注的原因。加拿大有很多未開發的潛力,尤其是在魁北克。我們有很多新的特許經營商簽約,我們以高 AUV 進入那個市場,最後但並非最不重要的是,顯然,我們在美國最大的市場,非常高的 AUV 有很多增長。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Andrew Charles of TD Cowen.

    下一個問題來自 TD Cowen 的 Andrew Charles。

  • Andrew Michael Charles - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Andrew Michael Charles - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • I had 2 questions on U.S. franchisee profitability. First, can you disclose the level of store-level cash flow in the U.S. in 2022 versus 2021? And then I was wondering if you could talk about the willingness and ability of franchisees to take on more debt in order to execute against development and remodels? I know you guys have obviously done a lot of work to help value engineer the box and obviously help on the incentive side but talking a little bit just more about the access to capital and willingness of franchisees to execute against this.

    我有兩個關於美國加盟商盈利能力的問題。首先,您能否透露 2022 年與 2021 年美國門店層面的現金流水平?然後我想知道您是否可以談談加盟商承擔更多債務以執行開發和改造的意願和能力?我知道你們顯然做了很多工作來幫助價值設計盒子,並且顯然在激勵方面有所幫助,但更多地談論了獲得資金的途徑和特許經營者執行此計劃的意願。

  • Gunther Plosch - CFO

    Gunther Plosch - CFO

  • Andrew. Yes, in terms of franchise profitability and cash per restaurant for 2022, we don't have those numbers yet. As you know, in 2021, our system in the U.S. and Canada posted record profits and record cash flows per restaurant and managed to actually take their leverage ratios down below 2019. You've seen our company restaurants that are definitely a proxy of what happens in the franchise system, would definitely expect that results in '22 went weaker, less profit, less cash flows and higher leverage ratio compared to 2021. We will report it out when we have that data collected.

    安德魯。是的,就 2022 年每家餐廳的特許經營盈利能力和現金而言,我們還沒有這些數字。如您所知,在 2021 年,我們在美國和加拿大的系統公佈了每家餐廳創紀錄的利潤和創紀錄的現金流量,並設法將其槓桿率實際降至 2019 年以下。您已經看到我們公司的餐廳絕對可以代表所發生的事情在特許經營系統中,與 2021 年相比,22 年的結果肯定會更弱,利潤更少,現金流更少,槓桿率更高。我們會在收集到這些數據後報告出來。

  • We are working closely with the lending community. They definitely love lending to the Wendy's brand since they are seeing that we have been on trend for the next -- for the last 12 years. We, as franchise owners, have continuously tried to actually take risk off the table as franchisees build new restaurants, improved financial returns, right? Todd went through a lot of those examples of what we are doing. So we do think as a result of this, our unit outlook of 2% to 3% over the next 2 years and then step up in 2025 to 3% to 4% is, I think, a prudent estimate, a pragmatic estimate that takes into account our current situations from an economic point of view and franchise health.

    我們正在與貸款界密切合作。他們肯定喜歡借給 Wendy's 品牌,因為他們看到我們在接下來的 12 年裡一直處於趨勢之中。我們,作為特許經營權所有者,一直在嘗試在特許經營商建造新餐廳、提高財務回報時實際消除風險,對吧?托德經歷了很多我們正在做的事情的例子。因此,我們確實認為,我們未來兩年的單位前景為 2% 至 3%,然後在 2025 年上升至 3% 至 4%,我認為這是一個審慎的估計,一個務實的估計,需要從經濟角度和特許經營健康的角度考慮我們目前的情況。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Chris Carril of RBC Capital Markets.

    下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Chris Carril。

  • Christopher Emilio Carril - Analyst

    Christopher Emilio Carril - Analyst

  • And appreciate all the detail so far this morning. So I wanted to ask, can you expand a bit more on your capital allocation strategy and priorities. I'm curious if you could expand any more on that significant amount of cash that's currently on your balance sheet, even when you're considering potential greater share repurchases or debt reduction? I mean are there any other additional opportunities you see to utilize the excess cash to support your first priority of investing behind growth?

    並感謝今天早上到目前為止的所有細節。所以我想問,你能否進一步擴展你的資本配置策略和優先事項。我很好奇你是否可以進一步擴大目前資產負債表上的大量現金,即使你正在考慮潛在的更大的股票回購或債務削減?我的意思是,您是否還有其他機會利用多餘的現金來支持您在增長背後的首要投資?

  • Gunther Plosch - CFO

    Gunther Plosch - CFO

  • Chris. Yes, as I said in the prepared remarks, right, capital allocation is unchanged and our #1 priority is investing in growth, and I'll give you 2 examples, right? The one example is clearly the Build-to-Suit program that's going to fund about 80 to 90 restaurants. We have spent about $4 million so far on it, right? So there is $95 million to go. So that will draw our cash balance out.

    克里斯。是的,正如我在準備好的發言中所說,對,資本配置沒有改變,我們的第一要務是投資增長,我給你舉兩個例子,對吧?一個例子顯然是 Build-to-Suit 計劃,該計劃將為大約 80 到 90 家餐廳提供資金。到目前為止,我們已經花費了大約 400 萬美元,對吧?因此,還有 9500 萬美元可供使用。這樣就可以提取我們的現金餘額。

  • A second example, and again, it is unit-growth focused is the Pacesetter program where that is obviously doubling the abatements, is an investment we are making. To be clear, that investment has been contemplated in our guidance, but it obviously has an impact on our effective royalty rate and what have you.

    第二個例子,也是以單位增長為重點的 Pacesetter 計劃,它顯然使減排量翻了一番,這是我們正在進行的一項投資。需要明確的是,我們的指導中已經考慮了這項投資,但它顯然對我們的有效特許權使用費率和你有什麼影響。

  • So you will also see that whilst we made massive investments in G&A to set us up for the future. Remember, between 2019 and 2022, our G&A went up from $200 million to $255 million, we are not disinvesting. We are slowing it down and be very, very focused in terms of where we are putting our G&A resources to further stimulate growth along the lines that Todd has talked about.

    所以你也會看到,雖然我們在 G&A 方面進行了大量投資,以便為未來做好準備。請記住,從 2019 年到 2022 年,我們的 G&A 從 2 億美元增加到 2.55 億美元,我們沒有撤資。我們正在放慢它的速度,並且非常非常關注我們將 G&A 資源放在哪裡,以按照托德所說的方式進一步刺激增長。

  • So that's kind of a couple of examples on how we are going through our cash. I think your observation is right. Our cash balance will stay elevated. We think that's appropriate given the volatility we have in the markets globally.

    這就是我們如何處理現金的幾個例子。我覺得你的觀察是對的。我們的現金餘額將保持在較高水平。鑑於我們在全球市場上的波動,我們認為這是適當的。

  • And thirdly, I think the one small change that we made is we are a little bit more active on the debt front. We have authorization by the Board of an additional $50 million of debt reduction. So if the financial return criteria can be met, well, we are stringent on that to make sure we're maximizing the return for our shareholders, then we will have reduced debt by about $75 million over and above the 1% mandatory amortization that we have in our debt structure.

    第三,我認為我們所做的一個小改變是我們在債務方面更加積極。我們已獲得董事會授權再減免 5000 萬美元的債務。因此,如果能夠滿足財務回報標準,那麼,我們對此非常嚴格,以確保我們為股東帶來最大回報,那麼我們將在 1% 的強制性攤銷之外減少約 7500 萬美元的債務在我們的債務結構中。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Alex Slagle of Jefferies.

    下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Alex Slagle。

  • Alexander Russell Slagle - Equity Analyst

    Alexander Russell Slagle - Equity Analyst

  • Question on breakfast and any evolution in how this is being executed as you look ahead to 2023? And thoughts on expanding the number of SKUs or how you're thinking about service levels or equipment needs or hours or anything different for evolving on that front?

    展望 2023 年,關於早餐的問題以及早餐執行方式的任何演變?以及關於擴大 SKU 數量的想法,或者您如何考慮服務水平或設備需求或時間或任何其他方面的發展?

  • Todd Allan Penegor - President, CEO & Director

    Todd Allan Penegor - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. Thanks, Alex. Hard to believe we're starting year 4 in our breakfast program. I mean, how time flies. There's still a lot of opportunities for us to continue to drive not just awareness, which is at pretty good levels, but repeat to ingrain that morning routine, and we'll continue to work on that. We still only have about 1/3 of our rest of day customers that have tried our breakfast business. So that's an opportunity to really entice the rest of day customers and that strength of business to come back into the breakfast daypart. But we will continue to lean in on this daypart.

    是的。謝謝,亞歷克斯。很難相信我們的早餐計劃是從第 4 年開始的。我的意思是,時間過得真快。我們仍然有很多機會不僅可以繼續提高意識,這是相當好的水平,而且可以重複早上的例行公事,我們將繼續努力。我們仍然只有大約 1/3 的休息日客戶嘗試過我們的早餐業務。因此,這是一個真正吸引白天休息的客戶和業務實力回到早餐時段的機會。但我們將繼續關注這一天。

  • We've talked in the past around beverage credibility and doing some things around coffee, and you'll see some things coming that way during the course of this summer, especially on the cold brew side. We've got some evolution of the products on the core menu with the types of bun carriers that will be out on that product. So you'll see that coming during the course of the year. And importantly, to get that repeat and drive the morning routine, you're going to see some things around every day affordability coming from a promotional perspective.

    我們過去曾討論過飲料的可信度並圍繞咖啡做了一些事情,你會在今年夏天看到一些事情以這種方式發生,尤其是在冷萃咖啡方面。我們已經對核心菜單上的產品進行了一些改進,其中包含將在該產品上推出的麵包架類型。所以你會在這一年中看到它的到來。重要的是,為了重複並推動早上的例行公事,你會從促銷的角度看到一些關於每天負擔能力的事情。

  • So we've got all the tools that continue to drive it. We are very pleased with the French Toast Stick innovation in the fourth quarter that we peaked over $3,000 per week per restaurant, and we expect to continue to build on that momentum this year and into the future.

    因此,我們擁有繼續推動它發展的所有工具。我們對第四季度的 French Toast Stick 創新感到非常滿意,我們的每家餐廳每週收入超過 3,000 美元,我們預計今年和未來將繼續保持這種勢頭。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Jeff Farmer of Gordon Haskett.

    下一個問題來自 Gordon Haskett 的 Jeff Farmer。

  • Jeffrey Daniel Farmer - MD & Senior Analyst of Restaurants

    Jeffrey Daniel Farmer - MD & Senior Analyst of Restaurants

  • On the -- on the Q3 call, you noted that Wendy's was gaining share, I believe, in the under $75,000 income consumer cohort. I think you said that you are potentially losing share with the over $75,000 cohorts. So I'm just curious what the trends were as you moved into Q4 and into early 2023 with these 2 cohorts?

    在 - 在第三季度電話會議上,你注意到 Wendy's 正在獲得份額,我相信,在 75,000 美元以下的消費者群體中。我想你說過你可能會失去超過 75,000 美元的人群的份額。所以我很好奇這兩個隊列進入第四季度和 2023 年初時的趨勢是什麼?

  • Todd Allan Penegor - President, CEO & Director

    Todd Allan Penegor - President, CEO & Director

  • On the income cohorts, as you think about Q4, it actually flipped. So in the over $75,000 income cohort, we started to grow traffic. And in the under $75,000, we decreased on the traffic front. But when you look at in those cohorts where we fit from a share perspective, we held our share on both the over $75,000 and the under $75,000. So that's a little different than the last few quarters where we were -- when we were actually went in with that lower income cohort. Just a testament to how strapped that consumer truly is and the opportunity is really to get them a little healthier to drive frequency back into our business again. But in the over $75,000, we're gaining like the rest of the industry, and that's some of the trade down we're seeing for mid-scale casual into QSR.

    在收入人群中,當你想到第四季度時,它實際上發生了翻轉。因此,在收入超過 75,000 美元的群體中,我們開始增加流量。在低於 75,000 美元的情況下,我們減少了流量方面的費用。但是當你從股票的角度來看我們適合的那些群體時,我們在超過 75,000 美元和低於 75,000 美元的人群中都持有我們的份額。因此,這與我們過去幾個季度的情況略有不同——當時我們實際上是與低收入人群一起進入的。只是證明了消費者真正是多麼的拮据,機會真的是讓他們更健康一點,以再次將頻率重新帶回我們的業務。但在超過 75,000 美元的情況下,我們與業內其他公司一樣獲得了收益,這是我們看到的中檔休閒裝到 QSR 的一些折衷。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Brian Mullan of Deutsche Bank.

    下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Brian Mullan。

  • Brian Hugh Mullan - Research Analyst

    Brian Hugh Mullan - Research Analyst

  • A question on international development. As it pertains to other markets in Europe outside of the U.K. Is there any willingness to continue to use the balance sheet to aid in the entrance of additional markets? I know in the past, this is not something you've spoken about doing, but given that you've taken the time to refresh your unit growth forecast out through '25, it would be helpful to hear your thinking if that strategy could make sense for Wendy's or to be helpful or necessary.

    關於國際發展的問題。由於它與英國以外的歐洲其他市場有關,是否願意繼續使用資產負債表來幫助進入更多市場?我知道在過去,這不是你說過要做的事情,但鑑於你花時間更新了 25 年前的單位增長預測,聽聽你的想法如果該策略可以對 Wendy's 有意義或有幫助或必要。

  • Gunther Plosch - CFO

    Gunther Plosch - CFO

  • Brian. Yes, in terms of Europe, as we said in the prepared remarks, the next targets are Ireland and Spain. We are going to stay asset light. So we are going to build out our company restaurant footprint in the U.K., but probably not on the continent. We are interested on the continent, clearly, for master-franchise agreements, if -- a joint venture where we can put a little bit of equity in can make sense, we would potentially do that.

    布萊恩。是的,就歐洲而言,正如我們在準備好的發言稿中所說,下一個目標是愛爾蘭和西班牙。我們將保持輕資產。所以我們將在英國建立我們公司的餐廳足跡,但可能不會在歐洲大陸。我們對非洲大陸很感興趣,顯然,對於主特許經營協議,如果 - 我們可以投入一點股權的合資企業是有意義的,我們可能會這樣做。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from the line of Andrew Strelzik of BMO.

    下一個問題來自 BMO 的 Andrew Strelzik。

  • Andrew Strelzik - Restaurants Analyst

    Andrew Strelzik - Restaurants Analyst

  • I guess I was a little surprised that you didn't provide any real targets around breakfast moving forward. You have been giving that alongside some of the digital targets and gave the digital piece about the breakfast piece. So I guess I'm curious how you're thinking about the contributions to the comp growth from here? Is that not an outsized contributor in your view anymore going forward? Or are there benchmarks or targets that you're holding yourself to internally that you could share?

    我想我有點驚訝你沒有提供任何關於早餐的真正目標。你一直在給出一些數字目標,並給出了關於早餐的數字部分。所以我想我很好奇你是如何考慮從這裡對補償增長的貢獻的?在您看來,這不再是一個巨大的貢獻者了嗎?或者是否有您可以分享的內部基准或目標?

  • Todd Allan Penegor - President, CEO & Director

    Todd Allan Penegor - President, CEO & Director

  • Andrew, we'd continue to expect breakfast to be a contributor to our same-restaurant sales growth into the future, both with the long-term ingrain now that we have starting year 4 in the U.S. and hitting year 2 in Canada. It's still a big focus item for us and there's still a lot of opportunity for us to get growth and get to our fair share over the next several years. But we don't want that to be the myopic focus on striving same-restaurant sales. I mean we got a lot of opportunities to drive speed of service at lunch and dinner, and we've made some progress on speed of service, and we've got a lot more that we can do moving forward. We got a lot of opportunities at late night and then in the PM snacking category.

    安德魯,我們將繼續期望早餐為我們未來的同店銷售增長做出貢獻,現在我們已經在美國開始第 4 年並在加拿大達到第 2 年,這兩者都是長期根深蒂固的。這對我們來說仍然是一個重要的重點項目,我們在未來幾年仍有很多機會獲得增長並獲得我們的公平份額。但我們不希望這成為爭取同店銷售的短視焦點。我的意思是,我們有很多機會提高午餐和晚餐的服務速度,而且我們在服務速度方面取得了一些進展,而且我們還有很多工作要做。我們在深夜和下午零食類別中獲得了很多機會。

  • So we want to make sure that we're taking a holistic approach to looking at how we're driving same-restaurant sales. Now that we're -- especially in the U.S. starting that year 4. It is just another subset of our overall same-restaurant sales growth algorithm, but an important one.

    因此,我們希望確保我們採用整體方法來研究我們如何推動同一家餐廳的銷售。現在我們 - 特別是在美國從那年開始 4。它只是我們整體同餐廳銷售增長算法的另一個子集,但卻是一個重要的算法。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Gregory Francfort of Guggenheim Securities.

    下一個問題來自古根海姆證券公司的 Gregory Francfort。

  • Gregory Ryan Francfort - Director

    Gregory Ryan Francfort - Director

  • I guess it's for GP, but can you talk a little bit about your expectations on commodity inflation, labor inflation for this year and how maybe it trends kind of first half, second half? Anything on that from what your expectations are?

    我想這是針對 GP 的,但你能談談你對今年商品通脹、勞動力通脹的預期,以及上半年、下半年的趨勢如何嗎?您的期望是什麼?

  • Gunther Plosch - CFO

    Gunther Plosch - CFO

  • Greg, yes, on the fiscal year, we definitely expect mid-single-digit commodity inflation and mid-single-digit labor inflation. From a book-end point of view, I would say, the high inflationary items of rise. Beef is slightly deflationary, and then we have everything else in between. From a pacing point of view, we definitely still are dealing with high single-digit commodity inflation in the first quarter, and it will step down to mid-single digit.

    格雷格,是的,在本財年,我們絕對預計商品通脹將達到中等個位數,勞動力通脹將達到中等個位數。從賬簿的角度來看,我會說,高通脹項目的上升。牛肉略微通貨緊縮,然後我們擁有介於兩者之間的所有其他東西。從節奏的角度來看,我們肯定仍在應對第一季度高個位數的商品通脹,並將回落至中個位數。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Danilo Gargiulo of Bernstein.

    下一個問題來自伯恩斯坦的 Danilo Gargiulo。

  • Danilo Gargiulo - Research Analyst

    Danilo Gargiulo - Research Analyst

  • So can you please help us understand the level of promotional activity that you're seeing today in the burger category? And how does it compare versus the historical promotional and marketing activities?

    那麼,您能否幫助我們了解您今天在漢堡類別中看到的促銷活動水平?它與歷史促銷和營銷活動相比如何?

  • Todd Allan Penegor - President, CEO & Director

    Todd Allan Penegor - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. No. As we look at the promotional market today, it's kind of where we would always expect it to be as you start at the beginning of the year. It's traditionally been more promotional driven as folks come back into the new year. We're seeing that today. Clearly, everybody is fighting for that under $75,000 consumer to drive a little more traffic with the health of the consumer. But we don't expect to see price wars from the past happening during the course of this year. We think folks will be very balanced. Good value proposition to bring traffic in as well as having a message on the core and the premium to help folks trade down from mid-scale casual into the QSR burger category. So we think we're really well positioned not just as a brand but as an industry to compete well in that segment. QSR continues to be the place to be.

    是的。不。當我們審視今天的促銷市場時,我們總是希望它在年初開始時出現。隨著人們回到新的一年,傳統上更多的是促銷活動。我們今天看到了。顯然,每個人都在為 75,000 美元以下的消費者而戰,以便在消費者健康的情況下增加一點流量。但我們預計今年不會再發生過去的價格戰。我們認為人們會非常平衡。良好的價值主張可以帶來流量,並傳達有關核心和溢價的信息,以幫助人們從中檔休閒食品降級為 QSR 漢堡類別。因此,我們認為我們不僅作為一個品牌,而且作為一個行業,在該領域的競爭中都處於有利地位。 QSR 仍然是該去的地方。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Peter Saleh of BTIG.

    下一個問題來自 BTIG 的 Peter Saleh。

  • Peter Mokhlis Saleh - MD & Senior Restaurant Analyst

    Peter Mokhlis Saleh - MD & Senior Restaurant Analyst

  • Great. I wanted to ask about some of the initiatives that you guys are doing within the 4 walls of the restaurants. I think several quarters ago, you were talking about the implementation of double-sided grills. I was hoping you guys could give us an update on that. And then also, Todd, I think you mentioned you're testing voice and vision AI. Any further elaboration or comments on that and what -- where the benefits of that could come within the restaurant?

    偉大的。我想問問你們在餐廳的 4 堵牆內所做的一些舉措。我想幾個季度前,你在談論雙面烤架的實施。我希望你們能給我們提供最新情況。然後,托德,我想你提到過你正在測試語音和視覺人工智能。對此有任何進一步的闡述或評論嗎?在餐廳內,這樣做的好處在哪裡?

  • Todd Allan Penegor - President, CEO & Director

    Todd Allan Penegor - President, CEO & Director

  • Well, on DSG 2.0, we got a little over 1,000 restaurants that now have the DSG 2.0 in them. So we continue to roll that out across the system. It cuts the cook time in half, hotter, juicier hamburgers, which is a great thing. We've done a lot of other work with operations, tablets and handheld POS and we talked about automated dishwashers to really help take some of the tasks in the back of the house and simplify them and make them a little bit more effective and efficient for our operators, so we can be positioned on kind of providing great service and creating great food.

    嗯,在 DSG 2.0 上,我們有超過 1,000 家餐廳現在擁有 DSG 2.0。所以我們繼續在整個系統中推廣它。它將烹飪時間縮短了一半,漢堡包更熱、更多汁,這是一件了不起的事情。我們在操作、平板電腦和手持 POS 方面做了很多其他工作,我們談到了自動洗碗機,它確實有助於在房子後面完成一些任務並簡化它們,使它們更有效和高效我們的運營商,因此我們可以定位於提供優質服務和創造美味食物。

  • Everything we're doing to try to push folks into mobile ordering, the more we can take order and payment out of the restaurant. That's a huge efficiency for us. And with our partnership on Google, we are doing a lot of testing on both voice and vision AI. We got some live testing in a restaurant here in the Columbus Greater area that we're taking a lot of learnings from. And we're very encouraged by the early work that we're seeing on that. So a lot more to come.

    我們所做的一切都是為了推動人們使用移動訂購,我們越能在餐廳外進行訂購和付款。這對我們來說是一個巨大的效率。通過我們與穀歌的合作,我們正在對語音和視覺 AI 進行大量測試。我們在哥倫布大區的一家餐廳進行了一些現場測試,我們從中學到了很多東西。我們對我們在這方面看到的早期工作感到非常鼓舞。所以還有很多。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from John Ivankoe of JPMorgan.

    下一個問題來自摩根大通的 John Ivankoe。

  • John William Ivankoe - Senior Restaurant Analyst

    John William Ivankoe - Senior Restaurant Analyst

  • First, the question on CapEx, $75 million to $85 million, actually a little bit less than what we thought. Were there any projects that were delayed in '23 that might be caught up in '24 is that relatively speaking, a good run rate as we think about the next couple of years is the first question?

    首先,關於資本支出的問題,7500 萬至 8500 萬美元,實際上比我們想像的要少一點。相對而言,是否有任何項目在 23 年被推遲,但可能會在 24 年趕上,我們考慮未來幾年的良好運行率是第一個問題?

  • And secondly, the Florida acquisition was big enough that kind of improvement there relative to the company average, it could potentially be important for you guys. Can you talk about just the state of Florida and how that acquisition has gone over the past year or so?

    其次,佛羅里達州的收購足夠大,相對於公司平均水平的改善,這對你們來說可能很重要。你能談談佛羅里達州以及過去一年左右的收購情況嗎?

  • Gunther Plosch - CFO

    Gunther Plosch - CFO

  • John. Yes, on the capital side, you're right, we are stepping down a little bit in 2022. We spent about $86 million. That steps down to $75 million to $85 million. A big thing for us is we are lapping the initial big investments in DSG 2.0 in our company restaurants. So year-over-year, that is stepping down. We are building a little bit fewer restaurants, so that helps a little bit year-over-year, and that's then partially offset by some higher technology investments in our company restaurants.

    約翰。是的,在資本方面,你是對的,我們在 2022 年稍微下台。我們花了大約 8600 萬美元。這減少到 7500 萬到 8500 萬美元。對我們來說,一件大事是我們正在對公司餐廳進行 DSG 2.0 的初始大筆投資。所以年復一年,這正在下降。我們建造的餐廳數量有所減少,因此同比有所幫助,然後被我們公司餐廳的一些更高技術投資部分抵消。

  • To complete the cash flow picture there, I want to repeat as well that our cloud computing arrangement, that's a cash out in our cash flow statement that steps down from about $30 million to about $25 million.

    為了完成那裡的現金流圖,我還想重複我們的雲計算安排,這是我們現金流量表中的現金支出,從大約 3000 萬美元減少到大約 2500 萬美元。

  • And then you had a second question on JAE and the acquisition in Florida. So we'll be happy with the acquisition. And I would say, as with every acquisition, there's a little bit more work to be done. We have dedicated resources behind it to make sure we are reaching the full potential of that acquisition.

    然後你有第二個問題關於 JAE 和在佛羅里達州的收購。因此,我們對此次收購感到滿意。而且我會說,對於每一次收購,還有更多的工作要做。我們在其背後擁有專門的資源,以確保我們充分發揮該收購的潛力。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Joshua Long of Stephens.

    下一個問題來自 Stephens 的 Joshua Long。

  • Joshua C. Long - MD

    Joshua C. Long - MD

  • I was hopeful we could talk about some of the strategies you've had in place in terms of increasing frequency, whether it's the one more visit, one more dollar. Obviously, the digital sales mix continues to tick higher as well. Just curious what you're seeing there in terms of being able to execute against increasing frequency and what's still a somewhat challenging operating environment.

    我希望我們可以談談您在增加頻率方面採取的一些策略,無論是多一次訪問,還是多花一美元。顯然,數字銷售組合也繼續走高。只是好奇你在那裡看到的是能夠針對增加的頻率執行什麼,以及什麼仍然是一個有點挑戰性的操作環境。

  • Todd Allan Penegor - President, CEO & Director

    Todd Allan Penegor - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. I think there's an ongoing focus on increasing frequency, providing more access to our brand through the breakfast daypart, clearly, is one of those levers, continuing to make sure that we have a compelling calendar, news on the premium front with ongoing news against Made to Crave, continued messaging around our key points of difference on our everyday core menu and really having a healthy value menu with things like 2 for $6 that's out in the market today. 4 for $4, $5 Biggie Bag. And as GP said a little bit earlier, we'll continue to evolve to make sure that we've got the right value propositions that work for the consumer but also work for the restaurant economic model.

    是的。我認為人們一直關注增加頻率,通過早餐時段提供更多訪問我們品牌的機會,顯然,這是其中一個槓桿,繼續確保我們有一個引人注目的日曆,優質前沿的新聞以及針對 Made 的持續新聞渴望,繼續圍繞我們日常核心菜單上的關鍵差異點傳遞信息,並真正擁有一個健康的價值菜單,比如今天市場上的 2 美元 6 美元。 4 美元 4 美元,5 美元 Biggie 包。正如 GP 早些時候所說,我們將繼續發展,以確保我們擁有既適用於消費者又適用於餐廳經濟模式的正確價值主張。

  • So we feel good that we've got that balance. It's in place. The biggest opportunity is for the consumer to get a little healthier. So there's been a lot of wage growth that's out in the market, but real income growth has been a little stagnated with all the commodity inflation that everybody has been facing. As commodity inflation slows and that real disposable income starts to increase, we think we're well positioned to start to capture a lot of that frequency that comes back into the restaurant.

    所以我們感覺很好,我們已經取得了這種平衡。它就位了。最大的機會是讓消費者變得更健康。因此,市場上出現了很多工資增長,但由於每個人都面臨的所有商品通脹,實際收入增長有點停滯不前。隨著商品通脹放緩和實際可支配收入開始增加,我們認為我們已經做好準備開始捕捉大量回到餐廳的頻率。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Sara Senatore of Bank of America.

    下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Sara Senatore。

  • Sara Harkavy Senatore - MD in Global Equity Research & Senior Analyst

    Sara Harkavy Senatore - MD in Global Equity Research & Senior Analyst

  • Just actually 2 quick separate follow-ups. The first is on the incentives. You talked about, I guess, getting from a 3-year to 2-year payback. That 3-year actually strikes me as pretty attractive relative to other options franchise out there. So I guess what's the need to sort of create this incentive since the underlying economics seem pretty good? And I guess, as you think about this sort of accelerated unit growth over time, is there a point at which you think you don't need -- you won't need to offer incentives? Or is this sort of -- the calculation is you will continue to have maybe more upfront incentives, but over time, the higher unit growth pace for that?

    實際上只是 2 個快速的單獨跟進。首先是關於激勵措施。我猜你談到了從 3 年到 2 年的回報期。相對於其他期權特許經營權,這 3 年實際上讓我覺得很有吸引力。所以我想既然基礎經濟學看起來不錯,那麼需要什麼來創造這種激勵?而且我猜,當你考慮這種隨著時間的推移加速的單位增長時,是否有一點你認為你不需要 - 你不需要提供激勵措施?或者是這種 - 計算是您可能會繼續擁有更多的前期激勵措施,但隨著時間的推移,單位增長速度會加快嗎?

  • And then my second follow-up is just on pricing. I think it sounds like maybe your pricing will be a little bit ahead of inflation in 2023 and perhaps is a little bit behind in 2022. Is there -- do you have any thoughts about sort of that relative value proposition? I know you've said a couple of times, no burger wars, but just trying to understand the dynamic vis-a-vis last year.

    然後我的第二個跟進就是定價。我認為聽起來您的定價可能會在 2023 年略高於通貨膨脹率,而在 2022 年可能會略微落後一些。您對這種相對價值主張有什麼想法嗎?我知道你已經說過幾次,沒有漢堡大戰,只是想了解去年的動態。

  • Gunther Plosch - CFO

    Gunther Plosch - CFO

  • Sara. So on the pacemaker (sic) [Pacesetter] incentive, just to make sure we are clear that's a levered return to basically get to a return of payback just over 2 years. So we think it is attractive. And as Todd said, right, it's better than the previous groundbreaker. We have another incentive system out there with Build-to-Suit. And depending on the situation of franchisees in, we do believe that, that makes sense to make sure we can accelerate our unit growth. That's something that is a top priority for us, and we are willing to make the respective growth investment. It creates very good return for franchisees. And to be clear, it also creates good financial returns for us and for our shareholders. So will we be creative on incentives on a go-forward basis, most likely but that's what we are rolling out currently.

    薩拉。因此,在起搏器(原文如此)[Pacesetter] 激勵措施上,只是為了確保我們清楚這是一種槓桿回報,基本上可以在 2 年多一點的時間內獲得回報。所以我們認為它很有吸引力。正如托德所說,對,它比以前的開創者更好。我們還有另一個激勵系統,即 Build-to-Suit。根據特許經營商的情況,我們確實相信,確保我們能夠加速我們的單位增長是有意義的。這是我們的首要任務,我們願意進行相應的增長投資。為加盟商創造了非常好的回報。需要明確的是,它也為我們和我們的股東創造了良好的財務回報。因此,我們很可能會在未來的基礎上對激勵措施進行創新,但這是我們目前正在推出的。

  • Also want to point out lead times. The first restaurants that will be opened under the Pacesetter incentive is probably in 2025, a really meaningful impact on this program is going to happen in 2026 going forward.

    還想指出交貨時間。根據 Pacesetter 激勵計劃開設的第一家餐廳可能會在 2025 年開業,對該計劃真正有意義的影響將在 2026 年發生。

  • Your question on pricing. The way we look at this one is we targeted certain profitability. And I think we have very little new pricing in 2023 in our outlook which we think is positive. If we are wrong, and inflation is becoming a little bit hotter, we think we still have pricing powder left to manage the P&L accordingly. It's kind of the perspective on that. And last but not least, we don't see any pushback, any visible pushback from consumers on the pricing that we have taken so far, evidenced by the fact that we were holding or growing dollar and traffic shares in the category over many, many quarters now and especially, obviously, also as we worked ourselves through 2022, where we take -- took obviously very elevated pricing actions.

    你關於定價的問題。我們看待這個的方式是我們以一定的盈利能力為目標。而且我認為我們在 2023 年的前景中幾乎沒有新定價,我們認為這是積極的。如果我們錯了,並且通貨膨脹變得有點熱,我們認為我們仍然有定價粉末來相應地管理損益。這是一種觀點。最後但並非最不重要的一點是,我們沒有看到任何阻力,消費者對我們迄今為止採取的定價有任何明顯的阻力,事實證明我們持有或增加該類別的美元和流量份額超過很多很多現在是幾個季度,尤其是顯然,在我們努力工作到 2022 年的過程中,我們採取了明顯非常高的定價行動。

  • Todd Allan Penegor - President, CEO & Director

    Todd Allan Penegor - President, CEO & Director

  • The only piece I would add, GP is when you think about QSR and we talk a lot about it being the place to be. Our relative value proposition with the way that continue -- the menu is constructed is quite good relative to a lot of the food-away-from-home choices that are out there today.

    我唯一要補充的一點是,GP 是當你想到 QSR 時,我們談論了很多關於它的地方。我們的相對價值主張以及繼續的方式——菜單的構建相對於今天的許多外出就餐選擇來說是相當不錯的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Jim Sanderson of Northcoast Research.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Northcoast Research 的 Jim Sanderson。

  • James Jon Sanderson - Equity Research Analyst

    James Jon Sanderson - Equity Research Analyst

  • I wanted to follow up on the pricing discussion and earlier questions about the outlook beyond 2023. When I look at the same-store sales component of system sales growth, I keep coming up with continued pricing to offset inflation, low single digits, which would yield slightly negative traffic. Is that the right way to look at that? Is there an expectation that traffic will weaken in mature markets longer term as you continue to take pricing and balance pricing and traffic trend for growth?

    我想跟進定價討論和早期關於 2023 年以後前景的問題。當我查看系統銷售增長的同店銷售部分時,我不斷提出持續定價以抵消通貨膨脹,低個位數,這將產生輕微的負流量。這是看待它的正確方法嗎?隨著您繼續採取定價並平衡定價和流量趨勢以實現增長,是否預計成熟市場的流量會長期減弱?

  • Gunther Plosch - CFO

    Gunther Plosch - CFO

  • Jim. Yes, I think your hypothesis is not wrong, right? We don't know how the inflation picture is going to evolve. But I would say, if we normalize, we would have low single-digit pricing that would definitely result in flattish traffic.

    吉姆。是的,我認為你的假設沒有錯,對吧?我們不知道通脹情況將如何演變。但我想說,如果我們正常化,我們將有低個位數的定價,這肯定會導致流量持平。

  • Todd Allan Penegor - President, CEO & Director

    Todd Allan Penegor - President, CEO & Director

  • And what I would say, Jim, is it's a prudent planning assumption. We'll have to see where the health of the consumer is, where long-term trends go between food at home, food away from home with hybrid work arrangements. So when you think about what we planned for, we want to be realistic, pragmatic. And hopefully, we get some upside from there into the future.

    吉姆,我要說的是,這是一個審慎的計劃假設。我們必須了解消費者的健康狀況,長期趨勢是在家用餐、外出用餐和混合工作安排之間。因此,當您考慮我們的計劃時,我們希望現實、務實。希望我們從那裡獲得一些未來的好處。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And our final question comes from Jake Bartlett of Truist.

    我們的最後一個問題來自 Truist 的 Jake Bartlett。

  • Jake Rowland Bartlett - VP

    Jake Rowland Bartlett - VP

  • Mine was just on the long-term unit growth outlook. And if I do the math and kind of take the midpoint for your annual growth guidance. I get to about 750 stores less than the midpoint of your -- the prior guidance that you talked about. Sounds like maybe there's 100 -- 50 to 100 less REEFs that you're contemplating as you move away from the ghost kitchen. But I just want to understand better what is driving the reduction? Is it more of the focus to the traditional box? Is that kind of what's driving it less of even beyond the ghost-kitchen aspect. But just what's the drivers? It feels like I'm just trying to understand what changed on the development side versus 3 months ago.

    我的只是關於長期單位增長前景。而且,如果我進行數學計算並為您的年度增長指導取中點。我到達的商店數量比你之前提到的中點少了大約 750 家。當您離開幽靈廚房時,您正在考慮的珊瑚礁可能減少了 100-50 到 100 個。但我只是想更好地了解是什麼推動了減少?是不是更注重傳統盒子?是那種驅動它的東西甚至超越了幽靈廚房方面。但驅動因素是什麼?感覺就像我只是想了解開發方面與 3 個月前相比發生了什麼變化。

  • Gunther Plosch - CFO

    Gunther Plosch - CFO

  • Yes, your math is not wrong, right? If you calculate them -- the algorithm out, you're going to find that by 2025, we're going to have between 7,600 and 7,800 restaurants, so it's clearly less than what we have said previously. And it's really less REEF units than we were -- previously contemplated as we reduced our outlook with REEF. And secondly, clearly, the focus on traditional development and fewer -- low EOD items is the other reconciling item that we have.

    是的,你的數學沒有錯,對吧?如果你計算它們——算法出來,你會發現到 2025 年,我們將擁有 7,600 到 7,800 家餐廳,所以它顯然比我們之前所說的要少。而且它的 REEF 單位確實比我們以前少——之前我們降低了對 REEF 的展望。其次,很明顯,關注傳統開發和更少——低 EOD 項目是我們擁有的另一個協調項目。

  • And then really don't forget, right, our starting point how we finished 2022 is much lower than what we had originally contemplated. Remember, our ingoing guidance for 2022 was a 5% to 6% unit growth that was kind of lowered as we then relooked at our pipelines, we feel it's a very pragmatic, very achievable guideline that we have put forward that is, I think, having the right focus and balance between international growth and U.S. growth, international representing about 70% of the growth.

    然後真的不要忘記,對了,我們完成 2022 年的起點比我們最初設想的要低得多。請記住,我們對 2022 年的指導是 5% 到 6% 的單位增長,當我們重新審視我們的管道時,它有點降低,我們認為我們提出的這是一個非常務實、非常可實現的指導方針,我認為,在國際增長和美國增長之間保持正確的重點和平衡,國際增長約佔增長的 70%。

  • Todd Allan Penegor - President, CEO & Director

    Todd Allan Penegor - President, CEO & Director

  • I think, Jake, one last comment. I know GP talked a lot about the refocus on traditional, and that's where we want to focus our resources, higher AUVs, much more predictable, sustainable long-term model. I mean beyond the REEF kitchens, we were testing and learning a lot of things, right, Frosty carts, hamburger stands, snack shops. Those were all in the old growth algorithm. And we have to lean in to test and learn on all of these things to make sure that we continue to move the brand forward and have more access to our brand. And we've learned a lot on all of those. And there's still tools that are out there in our portfolio, but our focus is really shifting to that traditional freestanding restaurant moving forward.

    我想,傑克,最後一個評論。我知道 GP 談了很多關於重新關注傳統的問題,這就是我們想要集中資源、更高的 AUV、更可預測、可持續的長期模型的地方。我的意思是在 REEF 廚房之外,我們正在測試和學習很多東西,對,Frosty 手推車、漢堡包攤、小吃店。這些都在舊的增長算法中。我們必須依靠測試和學習所有這些東西,以確保我們繼續推動品牌向前發展,並有更多的機會接觸我們的品牌。我們在所有這些方面都學到了很多。我們的產品組合中仍然有一些工具,但我們的重點實際上正在轉移到傳統的獨立餐廳。

  • Kelsey Freed

    Kelsey Freed

  • Thanks, Jake. That was our last question of the call. Thank you, Todd and GP, and thank you, everyone, for participating this morning. We look forward to speaking with you again on our first quarter call in May. Have a great day. You may now disconnect.

    謝謝,傑克。這是我們通話的最後一個問題。謝謝 Todd 和 GP,也謝謝大家今天早上的參與。我們期待在 5 月份的第一季度電話會議上再次與您交談。祝你有美好的一天。您現在可以斷開連接。