Welltower Inc (WELL) 2021 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the First Quarter 2021 Welltower Inc. Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) It is now my pleasure to introduce General Counsel, Matt McQueen.

女士們，先生們，感謝你們的支持，歡迎來到 Welltower Inc. 2021 年第一季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）現在我很高興介紹總法律顧問 Matt McQueen。

Thank you, and good morning. As a reminder, certain statements made during this call may be deemed forward-looking statements in the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act. Although Welltower believes any forward-looking statements are based on reasonable assumptions, the company can give no assurances that its projected results will be attained. The factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements are detailed in the company's filings with the SEC.

謝謝，早上好。提醒一下，在本次電話會議中所做的某些陳述可能被視為《私人證券訴訟改革法》意義上的前瞻性陳述。儘管 Welltower 認為任何前瞻性陳述都是基於合理的假設，但該公司無法保證其預期結果將會實現。公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中詳細說明了可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中的結果存在重大差異的因素。

And with that, I'll hand the call over to Shankh for his remarks. Shankh?

有了這個，我會把電話轉給 Shankh 聽取他的評論。尚赫？

Thank you, Matt, and good morning, everyone. I hope that all of you and your families are safe and healthy during these extraordinary times. I'll make some introductory comments on the state of senior housing business, our ongoing alignment efforts with our operating partners, and we will also provide a detailed perspective on our current thoughts related to capital allocation. Tim will then get into detailed operating and financial results.

謝謝你，馬特，大家早上好。我希望你們所有人和你們的家人在這些非常時期都安全健康。我將對高級住房業務的狀況、我們與運營合作夥伴的持續努力進行一些介紹性評論，我們還將詳細介紹我們目前與資本配置相關的想法。然後蒂姆將詳細了解運營和財務結果。

We are cautiously optimistic on the senior housing business, with green shoots emerging in U.S. and U.K. While it is too early to raise an all-clear flag as another COVID resurgence can never be ruled out, we're delighted to report an occupancy increase of 120 bps in U.K. and 90 bps in U.S. over the past 6 weeks. Despite growing optimism in U.S. and U.K., performance in Canada has remained somewhat weak due to an increased COVID cases across many regions. While most residents within our Canadian senior housing properties have been vaccinated, the rollout to the broader population has lagged meaningfully due to lockdown in certain areas within Ontario and Québec, move-ins, tours and visitation have been highly restricted, which has ultimately led to an occupancy loss of 50 basis points since mid-March. This trend has improved in April. Despite the drag from Canada, the move-in activity in March is higher than the last non-COVID impacted month of February of 2020.

我們對老年住房業務持謹慎樂觀態度，美國和英國出現了新的萌芽。雖然現在就完全清除信號還為時過早，因為永遠不能排除另一次 COVID 捲土重來的可能性，但我們很高興地報告入住率增加了過去 6 周英國為 120 個基點，美國為 90 個基點。儘管美國和英國的樂觀情緒越來越高，但由於許多地區的 COVID 病例增加，加拿大的表現仍然有些疲軟。雖然我們加拿大高級住宅物業中的大多數居民都接種了疫苗，但由於安大略省和魁北克省某些地區的封鎖，向更廣泛人群的推廣明顯滯後，入住、旅遊和探視受到嚴格限制，這最終導致自 3 月中旬以來入住率下降了 50 個基點。這一趨勢在 4 月份有所改善。儘管受到加拿大的拖累，但 3 月份的遷入活動仍高於 2020 年 2 月最後一個不受 COVID 影響的月份。

In addition, as I have described in past quarters, rates continue to hold. As adjusted for 2020 leap year, AL rates are up 1.6%, IL rates are up 0.7%, mostly dragged down by the Canadian business. Senior apartments and wellness housing rates are up 6.3%. Our operators across the board are seeing broad momentum that continued to build. Irrespective of product type, geography, activity, this is the most optimistic tone I've heard from our operating partners in a long time. We're even seeing the lifestyle-driven customers are starting to come back, which frankly surprised me in a positive way.

此外，正如我在過去幾個季度所描述的那樣，利率繼續保持不變。根據 2020 年閏年調整後，AL 利率上漲 1.6%，IL 利率上漲 0.7%，主要受加拿大業務拖累。高級公寓和健康住房的利率上漲了 6.3%。我們所有的運營商都看到了持續增強的廣泛勢頭。無論產品類型、地域、活動如何，這是我長期以來從我們的運營合作夥伴那裡聽到的最樂觀的基調。我們甚至看到以生活方式為導向的客戶開始回歸，坦率地說，這以積極的方式讓我感到驚訝。

Fundamental results have exceeded our expectations in Q1, and we're anticipating strong momentum in Q2. While we continue to avoid speculation on what the arc of the recovery may look like, we have provided additional disclosure on the additional LOI and earnings power of our portfolio assuming a return to 2019 level of NOI for our stable portfolio and adding incremental NOI from our filler portfolio. We believe this would result in additional $480 million of NOI. And remember, this assumes a return to 2019 level of occupancy and margin, and it does not assume a return to frictional vacancy or any rate growth since Q4 of 2019.

第一季度的基本業績超出了我們的預期，我們預計第二季度將出現強勁勢頭。雖然我們繼續避免猜測復甦的弧線可能是什麼樣子，但我們已經提供了額外的 LOI 和我們投資組合的盈利能力的額外披露，假設我們穩定的投資組合的 NOI 恢復到 2019 年的水平，並從我們的投資組合中增加增量 NOI填料組合。我們相信這將導致額外的 4.8 億美元 NOI。請記住，這假設入住率和利潤率恢復到 2019 年的水平，並且不假設自 2019 年第四季度以來摩擦空置率或任何利率增長。

We're seeing something similar happening in the private markets. While current cash flow multiples of what we are buying might be high as compared to what we're willing to pay 2 to 3 years ago, this is a moot point. We're paying a much lower multiple and a stabilized cash flow as evidenced by a much lower price per unit. While in most other asset classes this could be a matter of opinion, I believe in real estate it is a simple business where you can obtain a very granular view of price per unit and how this compares to replacement cost. While we can sit here and debate how different assets and portfolio prices compare to prices per unit 2 to 3 years ago, replacement costs are shooting upwards, with a white hot housing market driving construction costs exponentially higher in recent quarters. This phenomena is now spilling into other material costs due to a $2 trillion infrastructure plan announced by the Biden administration. As costs continue to rise, the market clearing rent to achieve minimum acceptable return is also ratcheting up. However, those returns are not going to be easy to achieve today, as much of the senior housing industry effectively remains in lease-up mode, given the impact of COVID on occupancy.

我們在私募市場看到了類似的情況。雖然與 2 到 3 年前我們願意支付的價格相比，我們目前購買的現金流量倍數可能很高，但這是一個有爭議的問題。我們支付的倍數要低得多，現金流穩定，單位價格要低得多就證明了這一點。雖然在大多數其他資產類別中，這可能是一個見仁見智的問題，但我相信在房地產中，這是一項簡單的業務，您可以在其中獲得單位價格的非常精細的視圖，以及它與重置成本的比較情況。雖然我們可以坐在這裡討論不同的資產和投資組合價格與 2 至 3 年前的單位價格相比如何，但重置成本正在飆升，白熱化的房地產市場在最近幾個季度推動建築成本呈指數級增長。由於拜登政府宣布的一項 2 萬億美元的基礎設施計劃，這種現象現在正蔓延到其他材料成本中。隨著成本持續上升，市場出清租金以達到可接受的最低迴報也在逐步上升。然而，鑑於 COVID 對入住率的影響，如今這些回報並不容易實現，因為許多老年住房行業實際上仍處於租賃模式。

If this was not enough, now the interest rate curve is backing up, creating further pressure on developers pro forma. This backdrop clearly is unique to the current cycle, which we believe will result in meaningfully lower new starts in near to medium term. The supply outlook, along with already rising demographic growth in the first half of the decade, gives us confidence that we'll achieve the level of asset performance that we provided. Although I have nothing to add in terms of the timing and/or the trajectory of the recovery, our analysis was done one asset at a time, and I hope you will find this new disclosure useful.

如果這還不夠，那麼現在利率曲線正在倒退，對備考開發商造成進一步壓力。這種背景顯然是當前週期所獨有的，我們認為這將導致近期和中期的新開工量顯著降低。供應前景，加上本世紀前五年已經上升的人口增長，讓我們相信我們將達到我們提供的資產績效水平。儘管就復甦的時間和/或軌跡而言，我沒有什麼可補充的，但我們的分析是一次對一項資產進行的，我希望你會發現這個新的披露有用。

During the first quarter, we continued our effort to create greater alignment of interest with our operating partners by restructuring several relationship constructs. And as we mentioned on our last call, we have made structural changes to several senior housing agreements. I would also like to highlight some recently announced strategic transactions with Genesis and ProMedica, with elements of both deals reflects our approach to value creation for our shareholders. First, Genesis. As we announced last month, after 10 years, we have substantially exited our Genesis real estate relationship through a series of transactions, which meaningfully derisked our cash flow stream going forward. Effectuating this nearly $900 million, the transaction wasn't easy. It involved a skilled nursing operator deeply impacted by COVID-19 pandemic, the transitional access to local and regional operators, working through our outstanding loans to Genesis, at the same time, creating opportunity for Welltower to participate in the post-COVID recovery in post-acute fundamentals.

在第一季度，我們繼續努力通過重組幾個關係結構來與我們的運營合作夥伴建立更大的利益一致性。正如我們在上次電話會議中提到的那樣，我們已經對幾項高級住房協議進行了結構性調整。我還想強調最近宣布的與 Genesis 和 ProMedica 的一些戰略交易，這兩項交易的要素反映了我們為股東創造價值的方法。首先，創世記。正如我們上個月宣布的那樣，10 年後，我們通過一系列交易大幅退出了 Genesis 房地產關係，這大大降低了我們未來現金流的風險。完成這筆近 9 億美元的交易並不容易。它涉及一名深受 COVID-19 大流行影響的熟練護理操作員，通過我們向 Genesis 提供的未償還貸款，向當地和區域操作員提供過渡通道，同時為 Welltower 創造參與 COVID-19 後恢復的機會- 敏銳的基礎知識。

Ultimately, we executed a mutually beneficial transaction for Genesis and Welltower shareholders. For Genesis, the transaction resulted in a meaningful deleveraging of its balance sheet, which will help you to reposition the company post COVID-19. And for Welltower, we were able to execute the transaction at a par bid value of $144,000 and generated an 8.5% unlevered return over the full term of Genesis relationship. And upon the repayment of the outstanding debt, that return will rise to 9%, with even further upside potential from participating preferred and the equity position.

最終，我們為 Genesis 和 Welltower 的股東執行了一項互惠互利的交易。對於 Genesis，該交易導致其資產負債表顯著去槓桿化，這將幫助您在 COVID-19 之後重新定位公司。對於 Welltower，我們能夠以 144,000 美元的標價執行交易，並在 Genesis 關係的整個期限內產生了 8.5% 的無槓桿回報。在償還未償債務後，該回報率將上升至 9%，參與優先股和股權頭寸具有進一步上升的潛力。

We believe that this represents a very favorable outcome for the shareholders, Welltower shareholders, particularly in light of challenging environment that we have faced in the post-acute sector and then COVID-related pandemic-induced downside we have seen. While transactions will result in some near-term earnings dilution for Welltower, we expect to create significant value for our shareholders following the deployment of the $745 million of anticipated proceeds over a range of high-quality opportunity that I'll discuss shortly.

我們認為，這對股東、Welltower 股東來說是一個非常有利的結果，特別是考慮到我們在後急性部門面臨的充滿挑戰的環境，以及我們看到的與 COVID 相關的大流行病引發的不利因素。雖然交易會導致 Welltower 的短期收益稀釋，但我們預計在將 7.45 億美元的預期收益用於我稍後將討論的一系列高質量機會後，將為我們的股東創造巨大的價值。

Since our announcement last month, Genesis has received an infusion of equity capital and named a turnaround specialist in Harry Wilson as CEO. We wish the team of Genesis much success in the future. As we have substantially exited a challenging legacy structure with Genesis, I hope our shareholders appreciate the favorable ultimate outcome. As we have done with several operating relationship over the last few years and discussed on various calls, our team embrace complexity, fix creative solutions, doesn't run away from their problems and situations where the choices may be imperfect, and ultimately works tirelessly to fulfill our commitment to our owners, operating partners and employees.

自我們上個月宣布以來，Genesis 獲得了股權資本的注入，並任命哈里·威爾遜 (Harry Wilson) 的扭虧為盈專家擔任首席執行官。我們祝愿創世紀團隊在未來取得更大的成功。由於我們已經基本上退出了 Genesis 具有挑戰性的遺留結構，我希望我們的股東對有利的最終結果表示讚賞。正如我們在過去幾年處理過幾個運營關係並在各種電話會議上討論過的那樣，我們的團隊擁抱複雜性，解決創造性的解決方案，不會逃避他們的問題和選擇可能不完美的情況，並最終不知疲倦地工作以履行我們對所有者、運營夥伴和員工的承諾。

Second, ProMedica. We announced 2 transactions to strengthen and expand our relationship with ProMedica, which will enhance the quality of our joint venture position and continued growth. The first transaction involved $265 million sale of 25 skilled nursing assets with an average age of 41 years, which will result in an immediate improvement to the quality of the portfolio. At the same time, we also crystallized a 22% unlevered IRR over 2.5 years of ownership of the asset, which is a true reflection of the power of our value-oriented investment philosophy. We at Welltower firmly believe that basis, not yield or cap rates, determines investment success.

第二，ProMedica。我們宣布了兩項交易，以加強和擴大我們與 ProMedica 的關係，這將提高我們合資企業的地位和持續增長的質量。第一筆交易涉及以 2.65 億美元出售 25 項平均年齡為 41 歲的熟練護理資產，這將立即改善投資組合的質量。同時，我們還明確了擁有該資產 2.5 年的 22% 的無槓桿 IRR，這真實反映了我們價值導向投資理念的力量。我們 Welltower 堅信，決定投資成功的是基礎，而不是收益率或資本化率。

Through a separate transaction, we are pleased to maintain an 80% stake in our state-of-the-art PowerBack assets which has been contributed to our 80/20 joint venture with ProMedica. ProMedica has already assumed the operations of these assets, which have been rebranded as ProMedica Senior Care. This successful transaction is yet another example of our focus on improving quality and growth profile of our portfolios while doing so at favorable economic terms to all stakeholders. ProMedica team is making progress in developing new relationships with other health systems as a provider of choice, as Promedica represents the premium not-for-profit provider at the leading edge of health care evolution. We're hopeful that we'll be able to deploy far direct accretive capital with this innovative partner of ours.

通過一項單獨的交易，我們很高興保留我們最先進的 PowerBack 資產 80% 的股份，這些資產已貢獻給我們與 ProMedica 的 80/20 合資企業。 ProMedica 已經承擔了這些資產的運營，這些資產已更名為 ProMedica Senior Care。這項成功的交易是我們專注於提高我們投資組合的質量和增長狀況的又一個例子，同時以對所有利益相關者有利的經濟條件這樣做。 ProMedica 團隊作為首選提供者，在與其他衛生系統建立新關係方面取得了進展，因為 Promedica 代表了處於醫療保健發展前沿的優質非營利提供者。我們希望我們能夠與我們的這個創新合作夥伴一起部署更直接的增值資本。

Speaking of accretive capital deployment, we are pleased to share with you that we have closed in excess of $1.3 billion of acquisitions year-to-date with very attractive unlevered IRR. In particular, extremely happy to announce that we have partnered with a Safanad-led investment group to recapitalize HC-One, the largest and most reputable operator of care homes communities in the U.K. Our investment in excess of $800 million comes in form of first mortgage debt on HC-One's real estate and equity in recapitalization. We also received significant warrants that would further allow us to participate in the post-COVID upside that we are confident that management in process of executing. HC-One will add a value option to our high-end focused U.K. platform. This is significant -- there is significant opportunity to upgrade the asset base, operating platform and people in this portfolio, and we have tremendous confidence in James and David to fulfill their missions to deliver the highest quality care, along with the resident and employee satisfaction.

談到增值資本部署，我們很高興與您分享，我們今年迄今已經完成了超過 13 億美元的收購，並且無槓桿 IRR 非常有吸引力。特別是，我們非常高興地宣布，我們已與 Safanad 領導的投資集團合作，對 HC-One 進行資本重組，HC-One 是英國最大、最負盛名的養老院社區運營商。我們超過 8 億美元的投資以首次抵押貸款的形式進行HC-One 的房地產債務和資本重組中的股權。我們還收到了重要的認股權證，這將進一步使我們能夠參與我們相信管理層正在執行的後 COVID 上漲。 HC-One 將為我們專注於高端的英國平台增加一個價值選項。這很重要——有很大的機會來升級該投資組合中的資產基礎、運營平台和人員，我們對 James 和 David 履行他們的使命以提供最高質量的護理以及居民和員工滿意度充滿信心.

In recent weeks, HC-One has experienced the same positive occupancy momentum as our broader U.K. portfolio, gaining 90 bps of occupancy from the March 2021 trough. Our debt investment represents the last found exposure of just $40,000 per unit, an important statistic given our unrelenting focus on basis. This basis also represents a significant discount to replacement cost. In addition to the upside from equity and warrants, we think this is an extraordinary risk-adjusted return story. We believe we'll be able to generate low to mid-teens unlevered IRR from this transaction, while adding a highly (inaudible) partner to fill a gap that we have in our portfolio in the U.K.

最近幾週，HC-One 經歷了與我們更廣泛的英國投資組合相同的積極入住勢頭，從 2021 年 3 月的低谷以來，入住率增加了 90 個基點。我們的債務投資代表最後發現的風險敞口僅為每單位 40,000 美元，考慮到我們對基差的不懈關注，這是一個重要的統計數據。這一基礎也代表了對重置成本的重大折扣。除了股票和認股權證的好處外，我們認為這是一個非凡的風險調整回報故事。我們相信，我們將能夠從這筆交易中產生低至中等的無槓桿內部收益率，同時增加一個高度（聽不清）的合作夥伴來填補我們在英國投資組合中的空白。

With acquisitions, patience is a virtue and so is occasional boldness. Since we mentioned in our October call the moment of boldness is here, we have closed in excess of $1.8 billion of acquisitions. The initial yield of this whole tranche is 6.8%, but we expect it will stabilize at a significantly higher number. While the environment was very uncertain then and we didn't give into institutional imperative about headline pressures, and we relied on independent thinking and resilience of our team.

對於收購，耐心是一種美德，偶爾的大膽也是一種美德。自從我們在 10 月份的電話會議中提到大膽的時刻到了，我們已經完成了超過 18 億美元的收購。整批的初始收益率為 6.8%，但我們預計它將穩定在一個明顯更高的數字。雖然當時的環境非常不確定，但我們並沒有屈服於頭條新聞的製度要求，而是依靠我們團隊的獨立思考和應變能力。

We remain very bullish on acquisition opportunities and have several attractive deals under contract currently and a highly visible pipeline, which we think we'll be able to execute through year-end. While our focus continues to be on the right asset with the right basis and with the right operator, I'm hopeful that our 2021 class of acquisitions will be immediately accretive to 2022 earnings and will be significantly accretive to 2023 and beyond.

我們仍然非常看好收購機會，目前有幾筆有吸引力的合同和一條非常明顯的管道，我們認為我們將能夠在年底前執行。雖然我們的重點仍然是基於正確基礎和正確運營商的正確資產，但我希望我們 2021 年的收購類別將立即增加 2022 年的收益，並將顯著增加到 2023 年及以後的收益。

Lastly, I will address a very interesting question I have received from an investor post our last call. I was asked why we have such an emphasis on partner selection and whether it would be better off vertically integrating. We think this is an excellent question that deserves some reflecting for a moment. Notwithstanding with the RIDEA law in senior housing, we believe we're better off in this ecosystem of partners and implementing an industrial view of vertical integration. That view is rooted in our belief that the combination of centralized capital allocation and decentralized execution creates the best long-term return. We believe this strategy of decentralized execution relates to entrepreneurial energy and keeps politics and costs at bay. This is especially important in real estate, which is profoundly a local business. However, overall, we are happy with our execution so far in the year to create partial value for our shareholders, but by no means we are satisfied. We are cautiously optimistic about the fundamental environment and excited about our opportunity to acquire assets, create new relationships and attract quality challenges.

最後，我將解決一個非常有趣的問題，我在上次電話會議後從一位投資者那裡收到了這個問題。有人問我為什麼我們如此強調合作夥伴的選擇以及垂直整合是否會更好。我們認為這是一個很好的問題，值得反思一下。儘管在高級住房方面有 RIDEA 法，但我們相信我們在這個合作夥伴生態系統中會更好，並實施垂直整合的行業觀點。這種觀點植根於我們的信念，即集中資本分配和分散執行的結合創造了最佳的長期回報。我們相信這種分散執行的策略與創業能量有關，並且可以控制政治和成本。這在房地產中尤為重要，因為它是當地的一項業務。然而，總的來說，我們對今年迄今為止為股東創造部分價值的執行感到滿意，但我們並不滿意。我們對基本環境持謹慎樂觀態度，並對我們收購資產、建立新關係和吸引質量挑戰的機會感到興奮。

With that, I'll pass it over to Tim. Tim?

有了這個，我會把它傳遞給蒂姆。蒂姆？

Thank you, Shankh. My comments today will focus on our first quarter 2021 results, the performance of our investment segments in the quarter, our capital activity, and finally, a balance sheet and liquidity update, in addition to an outlook for the second quarter.

謝謝你，尚赫。我今天的評論將集中在我們 2021 年第一季度的業績、本季度我們投資部門的表現、我們的資本活動，最後是資產負債表和流動性更新，以及對第二季度的展望。

After a year defined by infection protocols, move in restrictions and incredible operating challenges for our partners, we started 2021 in arguably the most challenging environment yet, with case counts hitting new highs across all 3 of our geographies and operating restrictions moving up in lockstep. Towards the end of February, the vaccine rollout hit its stride and nearly 80% of our facilities had their second vaccine clinic. Case counts across the portfolio dropped precipitously, and we started to see the early signs of stabilization. The effectiveness and rapid deployment of vaccines within our communities are just starting to be felt across our resident population. And while we are encouraged by the last 6 weeks of recovery in the U.S. and U.K., significant uncertainty remains with respect to the prevalence of the virus amongst the general population, the timing of the reopening of the economy, and the timing of further rollbacks of operating restrictions, especially with respect to our Canadian portfolio. The result is a near-term operating environment that, although notably improved, remains highly unpredictable in the short term.

在經歷了一年的感染協議、限制措施和我們的合作夥伴面臨的難以置信的運營挑戰之後，我們在可以說是迄今為止最具挑戰性的環境中開始了 2021 年，我們所有 3 個地區的病例數都創下新高，運營限制也同步上升。到 2 月底，疫苗的推出取得了長足的進步，我們近 80% 的設施都有他們的第二個疫苗診所。整個投資組合的案件數量急劇下降，我們開始看到穩定的早期跡象。我們的居民才剛剛開始感受到疫苗在我們社區內的有效性和快速部署。儘管我們對美國和英國過去 6 週的複蘇感到鼓舞，但在病毒在普通人群中的流行、經濟重新開放的時間以及進一步回滾的時間方面仍然存在重大不確定性。經營限制，特別是關於我們的加拿大投資組合。其結果是短期的經營環境雖然顯著改善，但在短期內仍然高度不可預測。

As a result of this uncertainty, like last quarter, we provided a 1 quarter outlook with our results last night. As we have done over the past 14-plus months, we will continue to disclose and update information on a frequent basis with the intention of providing a more complete outlook as soon as the virus-related variables moderate to a level that allows for more reliable forecasting.

由於這種不確定性，就像上個季度一樣，我們昨晚提供了 1 個季度的業績展望。正如我們在過去 14 個多月所做的那樣，我們將繼續頻繁地披露和更新信息，以便在與病毒相關的變量緩和到允許更可靠的水平時提供更完整的展望預測。

Now turning to the quarter. Welltower reported net income attributable to common stockholders of $0.17 per diluted share and normalized funds from operations of $0.80 per diluted share versus guidance of $0.71 to $0.76 per share. When providing guidance last quarter, we also provided expectations for $31 million of HHS provider relief funds we received in the quarter. We ended up recognizing approximately $34.7 million of HHS funds, along with $2.5 million of out-of-period payments for similar programs in Canada. Removing the impact of these funds, along with the $3.5 million termination fee that was received in one of our senior housing management company investments, which was not contemplating guidance, our normalized FFO moves to $0.70 per share. Therefore, on an apples-to-apples basis, we came out $0.01 above the top end of our HHS-adjusted prior guidance of $0.64 to $0.69 per share.

現在轉向季度。 Welltower 報告歸屬於普通股股東的淨收入為每股攤薄收益 0.17 美元，標準化運營資金為每股攤薄收益 0.80 美元，而指導價為每股 0.71 美元至 0.76 美元。在提供上個季度的指導時，我們還提供了對本季度收到的 3100 萬美元 HHS 提供者救濟資金的預期。我們最終確認了大約 3470 萬美元的 HHS 資金，以及 250 萬美元的加拿大類似項目的期外付款。除去這些資金的影響，以及我們在一項高級住房管理公司投資中收到的 350 萬美元的終止費（未考慮指導），我們的標準化 FFO 升至每股 0.70 美元。因此，在同類基礎上，我們的股價比 HHS 調整後每股 0.64 美元至 0.69 美元的最高指導價高出 0.01 美元。

Now turning to our individual portfolio components. First, our triple-net lease portfolios. As a reminder, our triple-net lease portfolio coverage and occupancy stats reported 1 quarter in arrears. So these statistics reflect the trailing 12 months ending 12/31/2020. Importantly, our collection rate for rent remained high in the first quarter, having collected 96% of triple-net contractual rent due in the period.

現在轉向我們的個人投資組合組成部分。首先，我們的三網租賃組合。提醒一下，我們的三重淨租賃投資組合覆蓋率和入住率統計報告拖欠了 1 個季度。因此，這些統計數據反映了截至 2020 年 12 月 31 日的過去 12 個月。重要的是，我們在第一季度的租金收取率仍然很高，收取了當期到期的三淨合同租金的 96%。

Starting with our senior housing triple-net portfolio. Same-store declined 2% year-over-year as leases that were moved to cash recognition in prior quarters continue to comp against the prior year full contractual rent received. EBITDAR coverage decreased 0.01x on a sequential basis in the portfolio to 1.00. During the quarter, we transitioned the remaining 5 capital senior assets, moving one to triple-net structure under a new operator and the other 4 to a RIDEA structure with CSU until transition. We also completed the transition of 4 properties leased by Hearth Management to StoryPoint under a new lease agreement. These transitions had a net positive impact of 0.02x in total portfolio coverage.

從我們的高級住房三網組合開始。同店同比下降 2%，因為前幾個季度轉為現金確認的租賃繼續與上一年收到的全部合同租金相比較。投資組合中的 EBITDAR 覆蓋率環比下降 0.01 倍至 1.00。在本季度，我們將剩餘的 5 項資本高級資產進行了過渡，將一項轉移到新運營商下的三網結構，將另外 4 項轉移到 CSU 的 RIDEA 結構，直到過渡。根據新的租賃協議，我們還完成了將 Hearth Management 租賃給 StoryPoint 的 4 處房產的過渡。這些轉變對投資組合總覆蓋率產生了 0.02 倍的淨積極影響。

Next, our long-term/post-acute portfolio generated positive 0.2% year-over-year same-store growth and EBITDAR coverage increased 0.37x sequentially to 1.37x as 51 of the 79 Genesis assets began operator transitions. 23 assets have already transitioned as of this call, including 9 former PowerBack properties, which moved to ProMedica Senior Care. Pro forma for the already completed ProMedica JV, Genesis Healthcare represents less than 90 basis points of our total in-place NOI. And long-term post-acute will be reduced to 6% of total NOI.

接下來，我們的長期/後急性投資組合產生了 0.2% 的同比同店增長，EBITDAR 覆蓋率連續增加 0.37 倍至 1.37 倍，因為 79 項 Genesis 資產中有 51 項開始運營商轉型。截至本次電話會議，23 項資產已經轉移，其中包括 9 項原 PowerBack 資產，已轉移至 ProMedica Senior Care。對於已經完成的 ProMedica JV 的備考，Genesis Healthcare 占我們總 NOI 的不到 90 個基點。而長期的後急性會減少到總NOI的6%。

And lastly, health systems, which is comprised by ProMedica Senior care joint venture with the ProMedica Health System. We had same-store NOI growth of positive 2.8% year-over-year and trailing 12 EBITDAR coverage was 1.9x.

最後，健康系統，由 ProMedica 高級護理與 ProMedica 健康系統合資企業組成。我們的同店 NOI 同比增長 2.8%，過去 12 年的 EBITDAR 覆蓋率為 1.9 倍。

Before turning to outpatient medical, I want to highlight a disclosure change we made to our presentation of occupancy in our supplemental disclosure. Historically, we reported occupancy to 100% ownership. But going forward, we will present both at Welltower's pro rata share to better reflect Welltower's ownership economics. This has no impact on NOI, which has always been presented at Welltower share. We have footnoted the occupancy levels if presented at 100% ownership in both the senior housing operating and medical office portion of our supplement.

在轉向門診醫療之前，我想強調一下我們在補充披露中對入住率的陳述所做的披露變更。從歷史上看，我們將入住率報告為 100% 所有權。但展望未來，我們將按 Welltower 的比例份額展示兩者，以更好地反映 Welltower 的所有權經濟學。這對 NOI 沒有影響，NOI 一直呈現在 Welltower share。如果我們補充的高級住房運營和醫療辦公室部分以 100% 的所有權呈現，我們已經在腳註中註明了入住率。

Now turning to our outpatient medical portfolio, which delivered positive 3.1% year-over-year same-store growth, as cash rent growth and higher platform profitability combined to producing acceleration in NOI growth. Tenant retention continued to be strong at 87.7% in the quarter, as we executed renewals on more than 540,000 square feet of space in the quarter, our highest amount ever reported. Additionally, we've also seen the length of term on executed renewals increase as compared to last year. Also in the quarter, we completed our second joint venture with Invesco Real Estate for a portfolio of outpatient medical assets and completed our first with Wafra. Our ability to form joint ventures with best-in-class capital partners over the last 2 years has allowed us to maintain scale, and more importantly, the tenant relationships generated from our in-house asset management platform. At the same time, we diversified our access to capital during a period of significant capital market turbulence. We look forward to growing these relationships further going forward.

現在轉向我們的門診醫療產品組合，由於現金租金增長和更高的平台盈利能力共同導致 NOI 增長加速，該產品組合實現了 3.1% 的同比同店增長。本季度租戶保留率繼續保持強勁，達到 87.7%，因為我們在本季度對超過 540,000 平方英尺的空間進行了續約，這是我們報告的最高數量。此外，與去年相比，我們還看到已執行續訂的期限有所增加。同樣在本季度，我們完成了與 Invesco Real Estate 的第二家合資企業，用於門診醫療資產組合，並完成了與 Wafra 的第一家合資企業。我們在過去兩年中與一流資本合作夥伴組建合資企業的能力使我們能夠保持規模，更重要的是，我們內部資產管理平台產生的租戶關係。同時，在資本市場動盪時期，我們多元化了獲取資本的渠道。我們期待著進一步發展這些關係。

Now turning to our senior housing operating portfolio. Before getting into this quarter's results, I want to point out that we received approximately $35 million from our Department of Health and Human Services CARES Act provider relief fund. As we've done in the past quarters, the funds are recognized on a cash basis, and as such, will flow through financials in the quarter they are received. We're normalizing these HHS funds out of same store metrics, however, along with any other government funds received that are not matched to expenses incurred in the period they were received. In the first quarter, there were approximately $33.8 million of reimbursement normalized out of our same-store senior housing operating results, mainly tied to the HHS program in the U.S.

現在轉向我們的高級住房運營組合。在進入本季度的結果之前，我想指出，我們從衛生與公共服務部 CARES 法案提供者救濟基金中收到了大約 3500 萬美元。正如我們在過去幾個季度所做的那樣，資金以現金為基礎確認，因此，將在收到資金的那個季度流經財務部門。然而，我們正在將這些 HHS 資金從同一商店指標中標準化，以及收到的任何其他與收到期間發生的費用不匹配的政府資金。第一季度，我們的同店高級住房經營業績中約有 3380 萬美元的報銷正常化，主要與美國的 HHS 計劃相關。

Now turning to results for the quarter. Same-store NOI decreased 44% as compared to first quarter 2020 and decreased 15.6% sequentially from the fourth quarter. Sequential same-store revenue was down 3.6% in Q1, driven primarily by a 310 basis point drop in average occupancy versus our guidance midpoint of 325 basis points.

現在轉向本季度的結果。與 2020 年第一季度相比，同店 NOI 下降了 44%，比第四季度下降了 15.6%。第一季度同店收入環比下降 3.6%，主要原因是平均入住率下降 310 個基點，而我們的指導中點為 325 個基點。

Turning to REVPOR in the quarter. SHO portfolio REVPOR was down 1.5% year-over-year, but mix shift and an extra day of rent in the comparable leap year quarter are distorting the true picture of rent growth metrics, as over 40% of our revenue is derived on a per diem basis. When adjusting for the leap year, total portfolio REVPOR growth moves to negative 1%. And breaking out our individual segments, our active adult, independent living and assisted living segments reported year-over-year growth of positive 6.3%, positive 0.7% and positive 1.6%, respectively.

在本季度轉向 REVPOR。 SHO 投資組合 REVPOR 同比下降 1.5%，但混合變化和可比閏年季度的額外租金扭曲了租金增長指標的真實情況，因為我們超過 40% 的收入來自日常基礎。在針對閏年進行調整時，總投資組合 REVPOR 增長率變為負 1%。打破我們的各個細分市場，我們活躍的成年人、獨立生活和輔助生活細分市場分別報告同比增長 6.3%、0.7% 和 1.6%。

As I mentioned in the past few quarters, the combined total portfolio metric is being impacted by considerable change in the composition of occupied units in the year-over-year portfolio. Our lower acuity properties, comprised of independent living and seniors apartments, held up considerably better on the occupancy front since the start of COVID, which has the mathematical impact of having a higher portion of our total portfolio occupied units being lower acuity, and therefore, lower rent paying units. So in conclusion, rental rates are proving resilient, more resilient across our portfolio than would appear in our aggregate reported statistics.

正如我在過去幾個季度提到的那樣，組合總投資組合指標正受到同比投資組合中佔用單位構成發生重大變化的影響。自 COVID 開始以來，我們較低敏銳度的房產（包括獨立生活公寓和老年公寓）在入住率方面表現得相當好，這具有數學影響，即我們總投資組合中較高比例的敏銳度較低，因此，較低的租金支付單位。因此，總而言之，事實證明，租金率在我們的投資組合中具有彈性，比我們報告的總體統計數據中顯示的更具彈性。

Lastly, expenses. Total same-store expenses declined 2.6% year-over-year and decreased 20 basis points sequentially. I'll focus on sequential since the changes are more relevant to trends in the current operating environment. The 20 basis point sequential decline in operating costs was driven mainly by lower COVID cover cost as case counts dropped dramatically in March. The meaningful decline in our top line, combined with these expense pressures, had a significant impact to our operating margins, which declined 280 basis points sequentially to 19.4%. As I noted earlier in the call, we not include government reimbursement that was not tied to parity expenses. And therefore, COVID expenses negatively impacted same-store by $14.8 million. We are not factoring any HHS funds into our second quarter outlook.

最後，費用。同店總支出同比下降 2.6%，環比下降 20 個基點。我將重點關注順序，因為更改與當前操作環境中的趨勢更相關。運營成本連續下降 20 個基點，主要是由於 3 月份病例數大幅下降，COVID 保險成本下降。我們收入的顯著下降，加上這些費用壓力，對我們的營業利潤率產生了重大影響，營業利潤率連續下降 280 個基點至 19.4%。正如我早些時候在電話中指出的那樣，我們不包括與平價費用無關的政府報銷。因此，COVID 費用對同店產生了 1480 萬美元的負面影響。我們沒有將任何 HHS 基金納入我們的第二季度展望。

Looking forward to the second quarter, and starting with the April quarter-to-date data we've already observed, we've experienced a 20-basis-point increase in occupancy through April 23, with the U.S. and U.K. up 40 and 90 basis points, respectively, while Canada is down 20 basis points. While we are encouraged by the recovery in the U.S. and U.K. and are hopeful that the effectiveness of the vaccines has put a floor underneath operating results, we remain cautious on projecting an acceleration in recent trends, given the lack of historical precedents and uncertainty of reopening trend, particularly in Canada. On a spot basis, we are currently projecting a 130 basis point increase in occupancy from March 31 through June 30. We expect monthly REVPOR to be plus 1.2% sequentially, although adjusting for the extra day in 2Q versus 1Q reduced to plus 70 basis points sequentially. Lastly, we expect total expenses to be effectively flat, as increases in operating costs from higher occupancy should be offset by a reduction in COVID-related expenses.

展望第二季度，從我們已經觀察到的 4 月季度至今的數據開始，到 4 月 23 日，我們的入住率增長了 20 個基點，其中美國和英國分別增長了 40 和 90基點，而加拿大則下降了 20 個基點。儘管我們對美國和英國的複蘇感到鼓舞，並希望疫苗的有效性為經營業績奠定基礎，但鑑於缺乏歷史先例和重新開放的不確定性，我們對預測近期趨勢加速持謹慎態度趨勢，尤其是在加拿大。按現貨計算，我們目前預計從 3 月 31 日到 6 月 30 日入住率將增加 130 個基點。我們預計月度 REVPOR 將連續增長 1.2%，儘管第二季度比第一季度多出的一天調整後減少到正 70 個基點順序地。最後，我們預計總費用實際上將持平，因為入住率上升導致的運營成本增加應被 COVID 相關費用的減少所抵消。

Turning to capital market activity. We continue to execute on our strategy of maximizing balance sheet stability. We're maintaining flexibility to position us to take advantage of attractive capital deployment opportunities. In March, we issued $750 million of senior unsecured notes due June 2031 bearing an interest rate of 2.8%, and used these proceeds to redeem all remaining senior unsecured notes due 2023. As a result, we were able to extend all senior unsecured debt maturities to 2024 and beyond, extend our weighted average maturity profile for nearly 8 years. We also extinguished $42 million of secured debt at a blended average interest rate of 7.6% in the quarter.

轉向資本市場活動。我們繼續執行最大化資產負債表穩定性的戰略。我們保持靈活性，使我們能夠利用有吸引力的資本部署機會。 3 月，我們發行了 7.5 億美元的 2031 年 6 月到期的高級無抵押票據，利率為 2.8%，並使用這些收益贖回所有剩餘的 2023 年到期的高級無抵押票據。因此，我們能夠延長所有高級無抵押債務的到期日到 2024 年及以後，將我們的加權平均成熟度曲線延長近 8 年。我們還在本季度以 7.6% 的混合平均利率清償了 4200 萬美元的擔保債務。

In February, we highlighted a robust pipeline of capital deployment opportunities. As these transactions materialize and the pipeline has grown, we've utilized our forward ATM program, selling 3.7 million shares of common stock to date at an initial average weighted price of $73.43 per share. These shares will generate future gross proceeds of approximately $272 million, and along with $1 billion of cash from our balance sheet, will enable us to officially capitalize our highly visible pipeline of capital deployment opportunities.

2 月，我們強調了一系列強大的資本部署機會。隨著這些交易的實現和管道的增長，我們利用了我們的遠期 ATM 計劃，迄今為止以每股 73.43 美元的初始平均加權價格出售了 370 萬股普通股。這些股份將產生約 2.72 億美元的未來總收益，以及我們資產負債表中的 10 億美元現金，將使我們能夠正式利用我們高度可見的資本部署機會管道。

Moving on to leverage. We ended the quarter at 6.59x net debt to adjusted EBITDA, a 31 basis point increase over the previous quarter as underlying cash flows continue to be pressured by the impact of COVID. While transactions closed in the second quarter will result in a slight increase in leverage, after adjusting for expected proceeds from assets held for sale and $272 million in proceeds from the forward sale of common stock, we expect leverage to settle in the high 6s before the ramp in senior housing cash flows begin to naturally drive leverage lower in the coming quarters.

繼續槓桿作用。本季度結束時，淨債務與調整後 EBITDA 之比為 6.59 倍，比上一季度增加 31 個基點，因為基本現金流繼續受到 COVID 影響的壓力。雖然第二季度完成的交易將導致槓桿率略有上升，但在調整持有待售資產的預期收益和普通股遠期銷售收益的 2.72 億美元後，我們預計槓桿率將在老年住房現金流量的增加自然會在未來幾個季度降低杠桿率。

Speaking of recovery, Shankh spoke earlier about the magnitude of potential cash flow growth from just returning to pre-COVID levels of margins and occupancy in our senior housing operating portfolio. This will have a significantly positive impact on cash flow based leverage metrics. And although the duration of this recovery remains highly uncertain, the inflection point this quarter leaves us optimistic that it has begun. And our demonstrated ability to access significant equity proceeds through asset sales, even in the most difficult times, along with our return in the equity market since last quarter, leaves us confident that we'll be able to keep the balance sheet in a position of strength as a natural deleveraging when the senior housing recovery returns us to well within our historical target levels in the not-too-distant future.

談到復蘇，Shankh 早些時候談到了我們的高級住房運營組合的利潤率和入住率剛剛恢復到 COVID 前水平的潛在現金流增長幅度。這將對基於現金流的槓桿指標產生顯著的積極影響。儘管這種複甦的持續時間仍然非常不確定，但本季度的拐點讓我們樂觀地認為它已經開始了。我們展示了通過資產出售獲得大量股權收益的能力，即使在最困難的時期，加上我們自上個季度以來在股票市場的回報，讓我們相信我們能夠將資產負債表保持在當老年住房復甦使我們在不久的將來恢復到我們的歷史目標水平時，作為自然去槓桿的力量。

Lastly, moving to our second quarter outlook. Last night, we provided an outlook for the second quarter of net income attributable to common stockholders per diluted share of $0.31 to $0.36, and normalized FFO per diluted share of $0.72 to $0.77 per share. As I noted earlier, this guidance does not take into consideration any further HHS funds or similar government programs in the U.K. and Canada. So when comparing sequentially to our first quarter normalized FFO per share, it's better to use the $0.70 per share number I mentioned earlier in my comments, which excludes the benefits of these programs as well. On this comparison, the midpoint of our second quarter guidance of $0.745 per share represents a $0.045 sequential increase from 1Q. The $0.045 increase is composed of a $0.02 increase per share increase from our senior housing operating portfolio, driven by an increase in sequential average occupancy and expected reduction in COVID costs; a $0.025 per share increase in net investment activity, as strong post quarter investments is offsetting the initial dilution from loan reductions and operator transitions related to Genesis; a $0.01 increase in NOI from triple-net and outpatient medical segments; and this is offset by the expected $0.01 increase in sequential G&A, driven mainly by new hires.

最後，轉向我們的第二季度展望。昨晚，我們提供了第二季度歸屬於普通股股東的每股攤薄淨收入 0.31 美元至 0.36 美元的展望，以及每股攤薄後每股 0.72 美元至 0.77 美元的標準化 FFO。正如我之前提到的，本指南並未考慮英國和加拿大的任何進一步 HHS 基金或類似政府計劃。因此，當按順序與我們第一季度標準化的每股 FFO 進行比較時，最好使用我之前在評論中提到的每股 0.70 美元的數字，這也排除了這些計劃的好處。在此比較中，我們第二季度每股 0.745 美元的指導意見的中點比第一季度增加了 0.045 美元。 0.045 美元的增長是由我們的高級住房運營組合每股增長 0.02 美元組成的，這是由於連續平均入住率的增加和 COVID 成本的預期下降所推動的；淨投資活動每股增加 0.025 美元，因為強勁的季度後投資抵消了與 Genesis 相關的貸款減少和運營商轉型帶來的初始稀釋；三網和門診醫療部門的 NOI 增加 0.01 美元；這被主要由新員工推動的 G&A 連續 0.01 美元的預期增長所抵消。

And with that, I'll turn the call back over to Shankh.

有了這個，我會把電話轉回 Shankh。

Thank you, Tim. Despite the challenges posed by the pandemic on our business, we have remained resolute in our commitment to ESG initiatives. In fact, our efforts on this front have only grown over the past year, and we are pleased to report significant progress, not just in terms of numerous awards and accolades we have received, but also by our action to strengthen and expand our ESG platform, which we believe will bear fruit in many years to come. We have recently received the Energy Star Partner of the Year award for the third consecutive year and elevated to the level of sustained excellence, the EPA's highest recognition within the Energy Star program. We have also been honored that our social initiatives, we are recognized with the quality score of 1 by IFF, the highest ranking in the social category. And last but not least, we continue to receive an A rating from MSCI, one of the most widely, well-respected global organization for our broader ESG practices and disclosures. I'm extremely proud to be working with our Board of Directors, one of the most diverse in Corporate America, in this commitment to create long-term and sustainable shareholder value per share through our ESG initiatives.

謝謝你，蒂姆。儘管大流行給我們的業務帶來了挑戰，但我們仍然堅定地致力於 ESG 舉措。事實上，我們在這方面的努力僅在過去一年中有所增加，我們很高興地報告取得了重大進展，不僅體現在我們獲得的無數獎項和榮譽方面，還體現在我們加強和擴大 ESG 平台的行動方面，我們相信這將在未來許多年取得成果。我們最近連續第三年獲得年度能源之星合作夥伴獎，並提升到持續卓越的水平，這是 EPA 在能源之星計劃中的最高認可。我們也很榮幸我們的社會倡議，我們被 IFF 認可的質量得分為 1，是社會類別中的最高排名。最後但同樣重要的是，我們繼續獲得 MSCI 的 A 評級，MSCI 是我們更廣泛的 ESG 實踐和披露方面最廣泛、最受尊敬的全球組織之一。我非常自豪能夠與我們的董事會合作，這是美國公司中最多元化的董事會之一，致力於通過我們的 ESG 計劃創造長期和可持續的每股股東價值。

With that, operator, we can open it up for questions.

有了它，接線員，我們就可以打開它提問了。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Rich Anderson with SMBC.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 SMBC 的 Rich Anderson。

I got up at 6:00 this morning to be first in line. So the disclosure on the recovery is great. And I appreciate that you can't comment or know what the trajectory is going to be, but it is question #1 in every one of my conversations because right now, we have to deal with an elevated multiple because of trough earnings. And so people want to know what the snapback is going to look like.

我今天早上 6:00 起床排在第一位。所以關於復甦的披露是偉大的。我很感激你不能評論或知道軌跡會是什麼，但這是我每次談話中的第一個問題，因為現在，由於收入低谷，我們必須處理高倍數。所以人們想知道 snapback 會是什麼樣子。

My estimates are down 30% versus pre COVID because of all this noise. And so I guess the way I would ask the question is, if you can't give trajectory, what would disappoint you in terms of getting back to square one? Would you say, "Boy, if we're not there in 2 years, that would be quite a disappointment."? Can you kind of triangulate at least a range of expectations as opposed to committing to one.

由於所有這些噪音，我的估計比 COVID 之前下降了 30%。所以我想我會問這個問題的方式是，如果你不能給出軌跡，在回到原點方面會讓你失望的是什麼？你會說，“男孩，如果我們在 2 年內不在那裡，那將是非常令人失望的。”？您能否至少對一系列期望進行三角測量，而不是只滿足一個期望。

Yes. Thank you very much, Rich. I hope you don't have to wake up at 6 a.m. to be first in line. But I'll just address the question, is any definitive answer for our end is as much of a guess from us as it is from you, right? So just understand there's no historical precedence to what's going on. We're simply telling you, if we go back asset by asset to where the NOI of these assets were, I think it's an important exercise because we have sold a lot of assets, bought a lot of assets, so it's very hard for you to figure out from our supplement what the number looks like. So we try to answer that question that if we just went back for the stabilized pool of assets to Q4 of '19, what will the NOI look like? And we add the filler portfolio and stabilize that, what does that combined look like?

是的。非常感謝，里奇。我希望你不必早上 6 點起床就可以排在第一位。但我只想解決這個問題，我們最終的任何明確答案是否與我們的猜測一樣多，對嗎？因此，只需了解正在發生的事情沒有歷史先例。我們只是告訴你，如果我們逐個資產回到這些資產的 NOI 所在的位置，我認為這是一個重要的練習，因為我們已經出售了很多資產，購買了很多資產，所以這對你來說非常困難從我們的補充中找出數字的樣子。所以我們試圖回答這個問題，如果我們只是回到 19 年第四季度的穩定資產池，NOI 會是什麼樣子？我們添加填料組合併穩定它，組合起來是什麼樣的？

Now I cannot answer the question, whether it's 2 years or 4 years or -- you've got to really put that in the context and your expectation. However, I will say this, and it's a very important point. It is to a Q4 2019 rent level a.k.a. that if you assume that this will be expanded out, let's just say it will take 4 years from today to get to that stabilized level of NOI. So it's going to stabilize in 2026. You have to assume the rent of the business remains flat to achieve that NOI, right, which we don't think obviously is happening.

現在我無法回答這個問題，無論是 2 年還是 4 年，或者 - 你必須真正把它放在背景和你的期望中。但是，我會說這一點，這是非常重要的一點。這是 2019 年第四季度的租金水平，也就是如果你假設這將擴大，那麼我們就說從今天起需要 4 年才能達到穩定的 NOI 水平。所以它會在 2026 年穩定下來。你必須假設企業的租金保持不變才能實現 NOI，對吧，我們認為這顯然不會發生。

We have continued to say that we expect that rent growth will hold up. Right? So you might get it later, but you will get x number of years of rent growth to get added to that. Obviously, that rent growth has a contribution margin that's very high and it falls to the bottom line. On the other hand, if we say, okay, we're going to get that earlier, you are not going to get as much rent growth. You will only get, just say that you decide that you're going to get there in 2 years, right, I'm making this up. And 2 years up, so you will only get the rent growth from '19 to '23 instead of '19 to '26.

我們繼續表示，我們預計租金增長將保持不變。正確的？所以你可能會晚點得到它，但是你會得到 x 年的租金增長來增加它。顯然，租金增長的邊際收益非常高，而且下降到了底線。另一方面，如果我們說，好吧，我們會更早地實現這一目標，那麼您就不會獲得那麼多的租金增長。你只會得到，只是說你決定要在 2 年內到達那裡，對，我正在彌補。 2 年後，您只會獲得從 19 年到 23 年的租金增長，而不是 19 年到 26 年的租金增長。

So I'm pointing out that there are many levers here that you have to think through. The longer gestation period will bring you ultimately a higher number because of the rent growth aspect that I'm talking about versus the shorter. And that's all I'm willing to say right now. I can guess, but it is a guess. We're underwriting assets in a way that, frankly speaking, we don't need to know. That's why we're so focused on basis. If you look at our stock, it's a real estate company. You can look at what the basis looks like on a price per unit basis, and then go and think about what it takes to build that portfolio. You will see that portfolio trade had a significant discount to what it takes to build it today.

所以我要指出，這裡有許多你必須仔細考慮的槓桿。由於我所說的租金增長方面與較短的妊娠期相比，較長的妊娠期最終會給你帶來更多的數字。這就是我現在想說的。我能猜到，但這是一個猜測。我們以一種方式承銷資產，坦率地說，我們不需要知道。這就是為什麼我們如此關注基礎。如果你看一下我們的股票，它是一家房地產公司。您可以查看以單位價格為基礎的基礎是什麼樣的，然後去思考構建該投資組合需要什麼。您會看到，投資組合交易與今天構建它所需的成本相比有很大的折扣。

Our next question comes from the line of Jordan Sadler with KeyBanc.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jordan Sadler 與 KeyBanc 的對話。

Wanted to hone in on a little bit of a different question, which is really the pacing of move-ins and move-outs. It's something, Tim, that you addressed on the last call. And I couldn't help but notice that indexed move-ins are now above what seemed to be pre-pandemic levels, or at least in March, they were [10 31] on Slide 14 of your deck. And so that's pretty interesting. And I know it's probably -- and you just addressed, Shankh, you don't really want to speak to the potential trajectory of move-ins. So I totally get that. Can you just maybe talk to us about move-outs? They're at [91 1] in March. So the indexes,- they're below. Why would they remain sort of below pre-pandemic levels going forward? How would you be able to keep them? Or how would your operators be able to keep them below pre-pandemic levels for a sustained period that would sort of maintain or improve even this net absorption pace that we've recently seen?

想研究一個不同的問題，這實際上是搬入和搬出的節奏。蒂姆，這是你在上次電話會議上提到的。而且我不禁注意到，索引移動現在高於大流行前的水平，或者至少在 3 月，它們是 [10 31] 在你的幻燈片 14 上。所以這很有趣。我知道這可能是——你剛剛談到，Shankh，你真的不想談論搬入的潛在軌跡。所以我完全明白了。你能和我們談談搬家的事嗎？他們在三月份的 [91 1]。所以索引，-它們在下面。為什麼它們在未來會保持在某種程度上低於大流行前的水平？你怎麼能留住它們？或者，您的運營商如何能夠在一段持續時間內將它們保持在大流行前的水平以下，從而在一定程度上維持或改善我們最近看到的這種淨吸收速度？

Yes. Good question, Jordan. It's mainly due to just lower occupancy in the building. So right now, we're seeing 140 basis points below -- we were 1,400 basis points below where we were pre COVID on occupancy front. So you've just got substantially lower number of residents in the building. So if you run a kind of historical churn levels, it obviously changes occupancy builds and then move outs start to kind of match historical levels. But as historical churn levels, you should be running at around 80% of kind of indexed historical levels of move outs. If that gets elevated a bit, we've talked about this from a higher acuity resident moving in during COVID. That probably moves to mid to upper 80s. But that can stay, I think, pretty consistent through a recovery. It is tough looking at the last kind of 6 months ticking through what has been natural move-outs and what's been really -- certainly a spike we've seen from COVID in the December, January, February period. I think what you're starting to see in March is a return to that kind of 80% level that we would expect, again, giving historical type of churn. But it's certainly something we're watching pretty closely.But from just a level of kind of the comment I made last quarter was from a level of occupancy in the buildings. That move-out percentage, getting back to historical levels of 2019 levels of move-ins, you can drive 80, 90 basis points a month in occupancy by just getting back there because the move-outs are going to be lower, purely mathematically based off the occupancy level.

是的。好問題，喬丹。這主要是由於大樓的入住率較低。所以現在，我們看到低於 140 個基點——我們比 COVID 前的入住率低 1,400 個基點。所以你的大樓裡的居民人數要少得多。因此，如果你運行一種歷史流失水平，它顯然會改變入住率，然後搬出開始與歷史水平相匹配。但作為歷史流失水平，你應該以大約 80% 的索引歷史移動水平運行。如果它稍微升高一點，我們已經從一位在 COVID 期間搬入的視力較高的居民那裡談到了這一點。這可能會移動到 80 年代中上層。但我認為，在整個複蘇過程中，這可以保持相當一致。很難看過去 6 個月的時間，經歷了自然的搬遷和真正的搬遷——當然是我們在 12 月、1 月和 2 月期間從 COVID 中看到的一個峰值。我認為你在 3 月份開始看到的是回到我們預期的那種 80% 的水平，再次給出歷史類型的流失。但這肯定是我們正在密切關注的事情。但是從我上個季度發表的評論的某種程度來看，是來自建築物的入住率。搬出百分比，回到 2019 年搬入水平的歷史水平，你可以通過回到那裡每月推動 80、90 個基點的入住率，因為搬出會更低，純粹基於數學離開入住水平。

And our next question comes from the line of Nick Joseph with Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗的尼克約瑟夫。

I was hoping to get a few more details on the HC-One transaction in terms of the rate on the loan and then the strike price and amount of the warrants? And then what happened to the previous mez investment with them?

我希望獲得有關 HC-One 交易的更多詳細信息，包括貸款利率、行使價和認股權證數量？然後之前跟他們的mez投資怎麼樣了？

Thank you, Nick. The previous mez investments was paid off at par. And we are seeing in Q1, as a 3 part investment, one is a combination of first mortgage, equity and warrant. And we think that combination will generate low to mid-double-digit type IRR. We also give you the basis which we invested a majority of that capital. The equity basis is slightly higher, but it's a substantial discount to replacement cost as well. So to hit those IRRs, you don't really need much of a expansion of multiple. What you need is the EBITDA to come back, which we think the management is already executing. And we've noted that the occupancy is already moving in the right direction. I'm not going to break out the specific part. You know that we do not believe in yields and cap rates determining investment success. We believe basis and IRRs get to the investment success and are consistent with that. And that's what we are willing to provide.

謝謝你，尼克。之前的 mez 投資已按面值還清。我們在第一季度看到，作為三部分投資，一個是第一抵押貸款、股權和認股權證的組合。我們認為這種組合將產生低到中兩位數的內部收益率。我們還為您提供了我們投資大部分資金的基礎。權益基礎略高，但也大大低於重置成本。因此，要達到這些內部收益率，你真的不需要太多的倍數擴展。你需要的是 EBITDA 回來，我們認為管理層已經在執行。我們注意到入住率已經朝著正確的方向發展。具體的部分我就不說了。您知道我們不相信收益率和資本化率決定投資成功。我們相信基礎和內部收益率是投資成功的基礎，並且與此一致。這就是我們願意提供的。

Our next question comes from the line of Vikram Malhotra with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自 Vikram Malhotra 與摩根士丹利的合作。

Shankh and Tim, maybe you can -- if you can describe just the acquisition opportunity set as it's evolved over the last 3 or 4 months since your last call. You talked about potentially a $10 billion opportunity over time. HC-One obviously expands your opportunity set in the U.K. But if you could just talk about the opportunity set in terms of assets, returns? And also just in terms of underwriting. I think you referenced your underwriting, if I'm correct, differently or not to a set time and you don't need it because of the basis. But I just asked that because your math that you described here, obviously, talks about pre-COVID levels. We all know, obviously, before pre-COVID, we still had a 5-year period of occupancy loss because of supply. So theoretically, there's even more upside. But if you can talk about the opportunity set and underwriting from that perspective, it would be helpful.

Shankh 和 Tim，也許你可以——如果你能描述自上次通話以來過去 3 或 4 個月內演變的收購機會集。隨著時間的推移，你談到了潛在的 100 億美元的機會。 HC-One 顯然擴大了您在英國的機會集。但如果您能談談資產、回報方面的機會集？而且也只是在承保方面。我認為你參考了你的承保，如果我是正確的，不同的或不同的設定時間並且你不需要它因為基礎。但我只是問這個問題，因為你在這裡描述的數學顯然是關於 COVID 之前的水平。顯然，我們都知道，在 COVID 之前，由於供應，我們仍有 5 年的入住率損失期。所以從理論上講，還有更多的好處。但如果你能從那個角度談論機會集和承保，那將會很有幫助。

Yes. Okay. Thank you, Vikram. First is the $10 billion number I mentioned, obviously, is a multiyear opportunity, not a 1-year opportunity, right? So I just want to clarify that. But you're right in that expansion with obviously expanding with HC-One, this transaction expands that opportunity. I want you to understand, as I've said in my prepared remarks, that this investment is not just a financial investment, it's a strategic investment.

是的。好的。謝謝你，維克拉姆。首先是我提到的 100 億美元這個數字，顯然是多年的機會，而不是 1 年的機會，對嗎？所以我只想澄清一下。但是你在擴張中是正確的，顯然是通過 HC-One 進行擴張，這次交易擴大了這個機會。我想讓你明白，正如我在準備好的發言中所說，這項投資不僅僅是一項金融投資，它是一項戰略投資。

And we looked at the company, its footprint, its management, and we see an opportunity that fills a big hole in our portfolio. Our portfolio in U.K. is very focused on high end, and we didn't have the value option. And there is a tremendous opportunity to grow in that value option, which we think we'll be able to execute through the HC-One platform. We structured the investment in the 3 tranches that we talked about. We don't go into an investment thinking we'll do debt, we'll do equity, we'll do mez or participating equity or cash. That's not how we think about it. We just look at an opportunity first. Think about what is the first asset opportunity and strategic opportunities, then think about how we get to invest capital so that we can be aligned with our partners. That's a very different approach than it's an asset and we've got to buy it, are we going to lend to it. That's just not how we think.

我們審視了這家公司、它的足跡、它的管理，我們看到了一個填補我們投資組合中一個大漏洞的機會。我們在英國的投資組合非常專注於高端，我們沒有價值選擇。在這個價值選擇中有一個巨大的增長機會，我們認為我們將能夠通過 HC-One 平台執行。我們對我們談到的 3 部分進行了投資結構化。我們不會進行投資，認為我們會做債務，我們會做股權，我們會做 mez 或參與股權或現金。我們不是這麼想的。我們只是先看看機會。想想第一個資產機會和戰略機會是什麼，然後想想我們如何去投入資本，這樣我們才能與我們的合作夥伴保持一致。這是一種與資產非常不同的方法，我們必須購買它，我們是否要藉給它。那不是我們的想法。

And it is the right risk-adjusted return. You look at an asset or a collection of assets or portfolio and you think about what -- where in the capital structure yields the best risk-adjusted return for your investors. Remember, there are different investors in the, obviously, the spectrum of this transaction. There is $235 million of equity on top of us, which obviously Safanad-led investment group, that includes [Fanning] and others, they're obviously bringing in, and they think there's an extraordinary opportunity to create value for their capital, right?

這是正確的風險調整後回報。您查看一項資產或一組資產或投資組合，然後考慮什麼 - 資本結構中的哪個位置可以為您的投資者帶來最佳的風險調整後回報。請記住，顯然，此交易的範圍內有不同的投資者。在我們之上有 2.35 億美元的股權，這顯然是 Safanad 領導的投資集團，其中包括 [Fanning] 和其他人，他們顯然正在引進，他們認為這是為他們的資本創造價值的絕佳機會，對吧？

So that's a very important point. Now going back to the -- sort of the pipeline, the pipeline is primarily today is senior housing, and the pipeline is very much what we talked about. It's significant. It's very robust. It's large. And it reflects a very significant discount to replacement cost. We're not going to sit here and tell you that we believe that every deal we'll do, we'll have this kind of return that we have described in HC-One, but as said before, that we think we can hit high single-digit to low double-digit IRR and that environment is still here. We don't necessarily, given our cost of capital, need to hit that. But we're still seeing many, many, many opportunities that we have under contract today that will get to you to that kind of return, which is in the high single digit, low double-digit type of IRR. Hope that helps.

所以這是非常重要的一點。現在回到——某種管道，今天的管道主要是高級住房，而管道正是我們所談論的。這很重要。它非常堅固。它很大。它反映了重置成本的非常大的折扣。我們不會坐在這裡告訴你我們相信我們將做的每一筆交易，我們都會有我們在 HC-One 中描述的這種回報，但如前所述，我們認為我們可以實現高個位數到低兩位數的內部收益率，這種環境仍然存在。考慮到我們的資本成本，我們不一定需要達到這個目標。但我們仍然看到我們今天根據合同獲得的許多很多機會，這些機會將為您帶來那種回報，即高個位數、低兩位數的 IRR。希望有所幫助。

And our next question is from the line of Derek Johnston with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Derek Johnston。

On leading demand indicators and community details, it's certainly encouraging to see visitation and communal dining almost back to historic levels. One missing component is the current quarantine requirement for new residents. It is still the 2 weeks quarantine or perhaps longer if not vaccinated. Then secondly, the lower level of in-person tours, is that being negatively impacted by restrictions in Canada versus other markets? Any geographic context is welcome.

在領先的需求指標和社區細節方面，看到訪問和公共用餐幾乎回到歷史水平當然令人鼓舞。一個缺失的組成部分是當前對新居民的隔離要求。這仍然是 2 週的隔離期，如果不接種疫苗可能會更長。其次，較低水平的面對面旅遊是否受到加拿大與其他市場限制的負面影響？歡迎任何地理環境。

Yes. Thanks, Derek. So I'll start with the question on quarantining. So this is a state-by-state process. Part of my comments in the -- my opening comments, part of the uncertainty around this is that it's local from a lot of the regulations around scaling back COVID regulations from last year, restrictions from last year. So we're seeing it kind of unfold state to state. But largely, the U.S. now quarantining restrictions are gone if you come in vaccinated. If you don't come in vaccinated, then you do have a quarantining. But you've seen through the success of the vaccination of the over 65 population in the U.S., that largely a majority of move-ins now that we're seeing come in vaccinated and you're eliminating that quarantine period.

是的。謝謝，德里克。所以我將從隔離問題開始。所以這是一個逐個州的過程。我的部分評論——我的開場白，部分不確定性是，它是本地的，因為很多法規都是從去年開始縮減 COVID 法規，從去年開始限制。所以我們看到它是一種展開的狀態。但在很大程度上，如果你來接種疫苗，美國現在的隔離限制就會消失。如果您沒有接種疫苗，那麼您確實需要隔離。但是你已經看到美國 65 歲以上人口接種疫苗的成功，現在我們看到的大部分搬進來的人都接種了疫苗，你正在取消隔離期。

And then the second question on tours, you're correct. Canada is dragging down statistics. So you've seen a vast improvement in the U.K. The U.S. is a little different state to state, but now largely, all states are allowing in-person tours. And Canada is still in a bit more of a restricted state.

然後是關於旅遊的第二個問題，你是對的。加拿大正在拖累統計數據。所以你看到了英國的巨大進步。美國的州與州略有不同，但現在基本上所有州都允許面對面旅遊。加拿大仍處於更受限制的狀態。

And our next question comes from the line of Michael Carroll with RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Michael Carroll。

I wanted to jump on the HC-One transaction. I think, Shankh, you kind of already answered this a little bit. But when you think about that deal, should we think it more of a strategic type investment, an ability for you to continue to grow in the U.K. with that operator? Or was it more of an opportunistic type deal? I mean since this is a debt investment, I guess it's a little confusing on the strategic nature of it.

我想加入 HC-One 交易。我想，Shankh，你已經稍微回答了這個問題。但是當你考慮這筆交易時，我們是否應該將其更多地視為一種戰略性投資，一種讓你與該運營商在英國繼續發展的能力？或者它更像是一種機會主義類型的交易？我的意思是，由於這是一項債務投資，我想它的戰略性質有點令人困惑。

Yes. So Mike, it's a great question. It is not a debt investment. It is a debt, it's structured as a lot of [kind of] capital deployed is debt investment, but it also comes with a very significant equity ownership through a warrant -- or future ownership through a warrant and [kind] ownership through the equity stakes. So that's how we thought about it. This is not an opportunistic investment. This is a strategic investment. If you look at our portfolio, you will see majority of our U.K. portfolio is kind of in that GBP 1,400 -- GBP 1,350, GBP 1,400 per week to GBP 1,600 plus per week kind of. That's our sweet spot. And we think there is a real value option needed in U.K. where on the private pay side, you can -- there's a tremendous amount of business, tremendous depth of need in, let's call it, the GBP 900 to GBP 1,000 per week. So this fills a true strategic hole that we have in our portfolio, which we have been looking for a long time, not just the last 12 months, to fill that hole. And we think this will be our platform. And as we have talked to our partners via Safanad, we have always seen it as a strategic investment. That's what we have talked to James and David, who run HC-One, and we think you will see further capital deployment activity coming through it in that segment.

是的。邁克，這是一個很好的問題。這不是債務投資。它是一種債務，它的結構是因為部署的大量[種類]資本是債務投資，但它還通過認股權證獲得非常重要的股權 - 或者通過認股權證獲得未來所有權和通過股權獲得[種類]所有權賭注。這就是我們的想法。這不是機會主義投資。這是一項戰略投資。如果您查看我們的投資組合，您會發現我們的大部分英國投資組合都在 1,400 英鎊 - 1,350 英鎊，每週 1,400 英鎊到每週 1,600 英鎊以上。那是我們的甜蜜點。我們認為英國需要一個真正有價值的選擇，在私人支付方面，你可以 - 有大量的業務，巨大的需求深度，我們稱之為每週 900 英鎊到 1,000 英鎊。因此，這填補了我們投資組合中的一個真正的戰略漏洞，我們一直在尋找這個漏洞，而不僅僅是過去 12 個月，以填補這個漏洞。我們認為這將是我們的平台。當我們通過 Safanad 與我們的合作夥伴交談時，我們一直將其視為一項戰略投資。這就是我們與運行 HC-One 的 James 和 David 交談過的內容，我們認為您將在該領域看到進一步的資本部署活動。

We're not going to go -- I don't want to speak for the management. I do not believe -- if suddenly they're pivoting the business going from GBP 1,000 a week to GBP 1,600 per week, that's not how the vision of the company is. The vision is to grab that demand in that segment, and there's not a lot of quality and a lot of deep provider in that segment. So that's what we see here.

我們不會去——我不想代表管理層發言。我不相信——如果他們突然將業務從每週 1,000 英鎊增加到每週 1,600 英鎊，那不是公司的願景。我們的願景是抓住該細分市場的需求，並且該細分市場中沒有很多質量和深度供應商。這就是我們在這裡看到的。

Our next question comes from the line of Jonathan Hughes with Raymond James.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jonathan Hughes 和 Raymond James 的台詞。

I understand the potential for your SHO operator, senior housing operating partners to raise rents going forward. But when I look at costs, of which 60% is labor, do your operators have an expectation of increases to staff these properties? Labor costs were up 6% to 7% over the past couple of quarters. And given wage increases across the country, it seems like labor costs could inflate just as fast or even faster than rates. So any color on labor cost expectations and how you incorporated that on Slide 13 would be great.

我了解您的 SHO 運營商、高級住房運營合作夥伴未來提高租金的潛力。但是當我查看成本時，其中 60% 是勞動力，您的運營商是否期望增加這些物業的員工？過去幾個季度，勞動力成本上漲了 6% 至 7%。考慮到全國各地的工資上漲，勞動力成本的上漲速度似乎與利率一樣快，甚至更快。因此，關於勞動力成本預期的任何顏色以及您如何將其納入幻燈片 13 都會很棒。

Yes, Jonathan, there's no question that you will have labor cost inflation. I do not believe that problem will be as acute as you have seen last 5 years when all the -- frankly speaking, all of our portfolios, given where the locations are, regardless of local regulations have sort of moved at or above that $15 type of numbers. So you have seen a very significant increase of labor cost. Will you see labor cost inflation? Absolutely. But I think you will also see margin expansion from, as Tim talked about previously, we believe that you will see the margin expansion going back to the historic margins level. So it's a yin and a yang.

是的，喬納森，毫無疑問，勞動力成本會上漲。我不認為這個問題會像過去 5 年那樣嚴重，坦率地說，我們所有的投資組合，無論當地法規如何，無論當地法規如何，都在 15 美元或以上的水平上移動的數字。所以你看到了勞動力成本的顯著增加。你會看到勞動力成本通脹嗎？絕對地。但我認為你也會看到利潤率擴張，正如蒂姆之前所說的那樣，我們相信你會看到利潤率擴張回到歷史利潤率水平。所以是一陰一陽。

I will tell you one thing, though. I would highly encourage you not to look at 1 quarter or 1 month of labor costs and projecting there. This is a lot of noise and volatility around the fact that a lot of people have received the stimulus check, and that has impacted short term. We do not believe that will be sustained as this sort of -- this dries up. However, you are right that labor cost inflation will remain, but it will not be what you see in other sectors, because what you are seeing in other sectors such as lodging and all the sectors, they have laid off all their employees, the shutdown, right? That was the case. For us, our communities have never shut down. They continue to employ our -- obviously, because to take care of our residents, and that continues. Is it -- is there no issues? Absolutely not, will remain so. I would also encourage you to think about the potential immigration changes that is -- we're hearing about. Obviously, I know it less -- probably less than you do, but that also has an offsetting impact. So it's a long term problem, but just understanding the demand supply of labor as it relates to demand supply of people and also how that impacts people's other choices at home, this will all come into place. We'll talk about it as we go through.

不過，我會告訴你一件事。我強烈建議您不要查看 1 個季度或 1 個月的勞動力成本並在那裡進行預測。很多人都收到了刺激支票這一事實引起了很多噪音和波動，這在短期內產生了影響。我們不相信這種情況會持續下去——這種情況會枯竭。然而，你說得對，勞動力成本通脹將繼續存在，但它不會是你在其他行業看到的，因為你在其他行業，如住宿和所有行業，他們已經解雇了所有員工，停工， 正確的？就是這樣。對我們來說，我們的社區從未關閉。他們繼續僱用我們——顯然，因為要照顧我們的居民，而且這種情況還在繼續。沒有問題嗎？絕對不會，會一直這樣。我還鼓勵您考慮我們正在聽說的潛在移民變化。顯然，我對它的了解較少——可能比你少，但這也有抵消作用。所以這是一個長期的問題，但只要了解勞動力的需求供應，因為它與人們的需求供應相關，以及它如何影響人們在家裡的其他選擇，這一切都會到位。我們會在討論過程中討論它。

And our next question comes from the line of Mike Mueller with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Mike Mueller。

Just wondering, how are the occupancy trends trending at the new development, say, filler properties compared to the more established properties that you have?

只是想知道，與您擁有的更成熟的房產相比，新開發項目的入住率趨勢如何，比如說，填充物房產？

Right now, there's not much of a difference. I'd say we're seeing pretty uniform recovery across the board. So likely, we'll start to see that start to change as you see some of the filler properties accelerate just purely by their current occupancy level. But right now, we're seeing pretty uniform recovery across the board.

現在，沒有太大區別。我想說我們看到全面的複蘇非常均勻。很可能，我們會開始看到這種情況開始發生變化，因為您會看到一些填充物的性能僅通過其當前的入住率水平而加速。但現在，我們看到全面的複蘇非常統一。

Our next question comes from the line of Juan Sanabria with BMO Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 BMO Capital Markets 的 Juan Sanabria。

Just hoping to spend a little time on the triple-net seniors housing business that hasn't had the same amount of focus. But if you could just try to help us understand kind of what has been done to date to rectify some of the low coverage. Presumably some of the 2% decrease in same-store NOI in the first quarter was driven by some restructurings or adjustments. And you had -- I think it looks like some straight-line rent write-offs in the quarter as per some of your supplemental slides. If you could just help us think through what you've done to date and maybe what's left to do, because I think that's a big piece of the recovery once that bottoms about what the portfolio could look like going forward with more clarity on the SHOP side.

只是希望花一點時間在沒有受到同樣關注的三網老年人住房業務上。但是，如果你能試著幫助我們了解迄今為止為糾正一些低覆蓋率所做的工作。據推測，第一季度同店 NOI 下降 2% 的部分原因是一些重組或調整。而且你有 - 我認為根據你的一些補充幻燈片，本季度看起來像是一些直線租金註銷。如果你能幫助我們思考你迄今為止所做的事情以及可能還要做的事情，因為我認為這是複甦的重要組成部分，一旦觸底了解投資組合在 SHOP 上更清晰地向前發展邊。

Yes, Juan. So I think the right way to think about it is, it has been a main focus point for us. And it seems to be for investors as well. But I think within the triple-net senior housing portfolio, around 20% of that in-place rent is now cash. So it pretty much reflects the underlying economics in those buildings. We have been pretty quick to move to cash when we have tenants that are not paying rent. So I think looking at our in-place, looking at our coverage metrics, those are tenants that are current on rent paying us and very much are doing so because of their long-term belief in their business.

是的，胡安。所以我認為正確的思考方式是，它一直是我們的主要關注點。它似乎也適用於投資者。但我認為在三網高級住房投資組合中，現房租金中約有 20% 現在是現金。所以它幾乎反映了這些建築的基本經濟狀況。當我們有不支付租金的租戶時，我們很快就轉向現金。因此，我認為看看我們的就地情況，看看我們的覆蓋率指標，這些租戶目前正在向我們支付租金，而且這樣做是因為他們對自己的業務有長期的信心。

And if anything, I think what we've seen in the first quarter from the start of a recovery, enhances that belief that there will be -- there won't be much impairment here. I think the other key here is, I think, the difference between cash flow and value. And the underlying assets, I think you're seeing this across the board, are holding value. So the impairment to cash flow, I think, is short term. That speaks to the view there's a recovery. And so I don't think about this being a value problem to Welltower, and if anything, kind of a short-term liquidity problem with the operators.

如果有的話，我認為我們在第一季度從復蘇開始時所看到的情況增強了人們的信念，即這裡不會有太大的損害。我認為這裡的另一個關鍵是現金流和價值之間的區別。基礎資產，我認為你已經全面看到了這一點，具有價值。因此，我認為現金流的減值是短期的。這表明存在復甦的觀點。所以我不認為這對 Welltower 來說是一個價值問題，如果有的話，這是運營商的短期流動性問題。

I'll just add, as I've said, probably every call we discuss this. So I'm not sure, Juan, why you think there's not been a focus. A majority of these leases that we have, and it's -- we're seeing -- you should see that in our RIDEA portfolio as well. Usually, the assets are owned and the propco is jointly owned by the operator and us. And those -- the operator's propco interest backs our lease, a.k.a, what you see as just from the rent does not reflect the collateral behind the lease. As you will see these things get restructured, you will notice that value of operators that they own the real estate, their propco interest will really back this rent and will create substantial protection of downside for our shareholders.

正如我所說，我只是補充說，我們討論這個問題的每個電話可能都是如此。所以我不確定，胡安，為什麼你認為沒有重點。我們擁有的這些租約中的大部分——我們正在看到——你也應該在我們的 RIDEA 投資組合中看到這一點。通常，資產和propco 由運營商和我們共同擁有。還有那些——運營商的 propco 利益支持我們的租約，也就是說，你從租金中看到的並不反映租約背後的抵押品。當你看到這些東西得到重組時，你會注意到他們擁有房地產的運營商的價值，他們的 propco 利益將真正支持這筆租金，並將為我們的股東創造實質性的下行保護。

So I don't want to get into too much of details before everything is done. As I've said before, that you will continue to be surprised how much rent we continue to get from this portfolio. Will there be dilution of short-term cash flow? Absolutely will. And you're seeing that flowing through. Do we think there will be diminution of value? Absolutely not. So that's a general average statement. But that's what we continue to believe, and that's what you have seen through a 100-year slide, once in a 100-year slide which is this pandemic, that held up, will continue to hold up.

所以我不想在一切都完成之前進入太多細節。正如我之前所說，你會繼續驚訝於我們繼續從這個投資組合中獲得多少租金。短期現金流會不會被攤薄？絕對會的。你看到它流過。我們認為價值會減少嗎？絕對不。所以這是一個普遍的平均陳述。但這就是我們繼續相信的，這就是你在 100 年的下滑中看到的，在 100 年的下滑中，一次是這種流行病，它持續了下來，將繼續持續下去。

Our next question comes from the line of Connor Siversky with Berenberg.

我們的下一個問題來自 Connor Siversky 與 Berenberg 的對話。

Just to follow up on Juan's question. I'm wondering if this straight-line write-down was at all related to some of the movement we've seen in the top tenants? And if so, could you maybe provide some color on what we're seeing there or what we could expect going forward?

只是為了跟進 Juan 的問題。我想知道這種直線減記是否與我們在頂級租戶中看到的某些運動有關？如果是這樣，您能否提供一些關於我們在那裡看到的內容或我們對未來的期望的顏色？

No, we will not, Connor. It's -- we do not talk about specific operators on this call. And that's not relevant. As I said that this lease that we restructured, you're only seeing one side of that. You haven't seen the other side. And the operator has substantial amount of ownership in the propco. And that ownership backed the rent, and this operator is an extraordinarily highly respected operator, and we think we'll get to a point that works for our shareholders and their ownership and you are only seeing one part of it. Just give us time, and you will see it will result into a mutually beneficial arrangement where we will be able to protect all of our value.

不，我們不會，康納。這是——我們不會在這次電話會議上談論具體的運營商。那是不相關的。正如我所說，我們重組的這份租約，你只看到了其中的一面。你沒有看到另一面。運營商在 propco 中擁有大量所有權。這種所有權支持租金，這家運營商是一位非常受人尊敬的運營商，我們認為我們會達到一個對我們的股東和他們的所有權有用的地步，而你只看到其中的一部分。給我們時間，您會發現這將導致互惠互利的安排，我們將能夠保護我們所有的價值。

Our next question comes from the line of Steven Valiquette with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Steven Valiquette。

So one other debate point to add into the mix on the $480 million of embedded NOI. And that's really the Slide 10 as far as the construction versus inventory. As we look at your NOI margins in your SHO portfolio, it went from 32% to 30%, let's call it, from, I don't know, 2015, 2016 to 2019. A lot of that was that big increase in construction.

因此，另一個爭論點是將 4.8 億美元的嵌入式 NOI 添加到組合中。就建築與庫存而言，這確實是 Slide 10。當我們查看您的 SHO 投資組合中的 NOI 利潤率時，從 2015 年、2016 年到 2019 年，它從 32% 上升到 30%，讓我們稱之為吧。其中很多是建築業的大幅增長。

Now that slide shows that's coming way down, which should alleviate some of the pressure as well. So I wanted to just talk about that on the plus side. And to the extent that you have some visibility, maybe just in your just overall strategic review of the industry, do you think that the number goes lower from here on that chart on the bottom of Slide 10 as far as construction versus [inventory]?

現在這張幻燈片顯示它正在下降，這也應該減輕一些壓力。所以我只想從好的方面談一談。在某種程度上，你有一定的知名度，也許只是在你對行業的整體戰略審查中，你是否認為幻燈片 10 底部圖表上的建築與 [庫存] 相比，這個數字從這裡開始下降？

So Steve, that's an extremely important question. I tried to address that in my prepared remarks. Look, we're all guessing, right? And we have to assume that people will do things that is economically beneficial to them. If you look at how much the costs have changed, let's just say -- let's just talk about cost in the last 3 years. You have places in the coast, costs are probably up 20-plus percent, low 20%. And if you look at some of the locations in, pick Dallas, Charlotte, Nashville, cost is up between 30% and 35%. The housing market is very significantly impacting not just the cost of lumber, which is everybody is talking about, but the cost and availability of labor. Right? So if you -- that's sort of one big impact and a development model is a highly leveraged model, right? So if you thought you're going to make 7% yield on cost and suddenly now looks like 5%, you are in trouble. But on the other hand, if you see what's going on, interest rate is backing up in a highly leveraged model. By definition level, development is a highly-leveraged model, with construction loans, et cetera. What you have is now interest rates backing up. So it's farther eating into your pro forma. And those 2 combinations, assuming people don't develop for fun, they want to develop to make money, that proposition is increasingly becoming very difficult. This is an industry-wide comment. This is not -- I'm not suggesting, see if you can go and develop a building in a given location and can't make money. That's not the point.

所以史蒂夫，這是一個非常重要的問題。我試圖在準備好的發言中解決這個問題。看，我們都在猜測，對吧？我們必須假設人們會做對他們經濟有利的事情。如果你看看成本發生了多少變化，我們就說——讓我們談談過去 3 年的成本。你在海岸有地方，成本可能上漲 20% 以上，低 20%。如果你看一些地方，選擇達拉斯、夏洛特、納什維爾，成本上漲了 30% 到 35%。房地產市場不僅影響著每個人都在談論的木材成本，而且影響著勞動力的成本和可用性。正確的？所以，如果你 - 這是一個很大的影響，開發模型是一個高度槓桿化的模型，對嗎？因此，如果您認為您將獲得 7% 的成本收益率，而現在突然看起來只有 5%，那麼您就有麻煩了。但另一方面，如果你看到正在發生的事情，利率就會在高槓桿模型中回升。根據定義級別，開發是一種高槓桿模式，包括建設貸款等。你現在擁有的是利率支持。所以它會進一步影響你的備考。而這兩種組合，假設人們不是為了娛樂而開發，而是想通過開發來賺錢，那麼這個命題就會變得越來越困難。這是全行業的評論。這不是——我不是建議，看看你是否可以在給定的位置開發一棟建築，但不能賺錢。那不是重點。

As an industry-wide, it is becoming much more difficult. And assuming people who want to develop to make money, that proposition is getting much, much harder. I'm not even talking about availability of debt capital, et cetera. The attractiveness of the model has been meaningfully hit in last, call it, 3 years, particularly last 12 months, as housing has just gone parabolic. So in that context, we think there will be, obviously, a lot less supply than it has been in the, call it, between '15 to '19. Also the '15 to '19, sort of the supply boom was -- frankly, was created by a lot of the players, including our company, was paid $1.20, $1.5 on the dollar on the basis. I do not see those participants in the industry anymore. People are very, very -- people who are involved in buying assets today, they're very focused on the right basis. And a lot of the sort of the take out premium is meaningfully gone from the industry as well. So if we put all of those things together, we think that it is reasonable to expect. You can never accurately forecast what the future will look like. It is reasonable to expect that supply in next 5 years will be a lot less than last 5 years, but it is a guess, nonetheless.

作為一個行業範圍，它變得更加困難。假設人們想通過發展賺錢，那麼這個命題就會變得越來越難。我什至不是在談論債務資本的可用性等等。該模型的吸引力在過去 3 年，尤其是過去 12 個月裡受到了有意義的打擊，因為住房剛剛變成拋物線。因此，在這種情況下，我們認為供應顯然會比 15 到 19 年期間少得多。此外，從 15 年到 19 年，某種供應熱潮是——坦率地說，是由包括我們公司在內的許多參與者創造的，以美元為基礎支付了 1.20 美元、1.5 美元。我再也看不到該行業的那些參與者了。人們非常非常——今天參與購買資產的人，他們非常關注正確的基礎。很多外賣溢價也從這個行業有意義地消失了。因此，如果我們將所有這些放在一起，我們認為這是合理的期望。你永遠無法準確預測未來會是什麼樣子。預計未來 5 年的供應量將比過去 5 年少很多是合理的，但這仍然是一個猜測。

And we do think that will impact the rent growth, which is the point I was trying to make on the $480 million, is that is the beauty of basis. I highly encourage all of you to look at what is the implied per basis value of Welltower. And if you have to make that basis a number, what rent do you need, versus what it takes to build and to make some minimum acceptable return, call it, 7%, whatever you think is the development yield should be and what is the rent. And you will see what it takes to build on our -- today in our company, there's a huge gap between the potential reward -- rent, what's potential to bring new supply versus what you can get. That's not just a Welltower problem. I'm saying existing inventory versus the new inventory, and that will give you much more insight into what the rental may or may not be.

我們確實認為這會影響租金增長，這就是我試圖對 4.8 億美元提出的觀點，那就是基礎之美。我強烈建議大家看看 Welltower 的隱含基礎價值是多少。如果你必須讓這個基礎成為一個數字，你需要多少租金，與建造和獲得最低可接受回報所需的費用相比，稱之為 7%，無論你認為開發收益率應該是多少，以及什麼是租。你會看到在我們的基礎上需要什麼——今天在我們公司，潛在的回報——租金、帶來新供應的潛力與你能得到的之間存在巨大差距。這不僅僅是 Welltower 的問題。我說的是現有庫存與新庫存，這會讓您更深入地了解租金可能是什麼，也可能不是。

Our next question comes from the line of Omotayo Okusanya with Mizuho.

我們的下一個問題來自 Omotayo Okusanya 和 Mizuho 的台詞。

Yes I just wanted to go back to Juan and Connor's question about some of the restructured leases. And Shankh, you made a point that you're working on structures to help you kind of recover some of the kind of initial rent breaks or whatever benefits you've kind of given these lease tenants in the short term. Could you just talk a little bit about what some of those kind of lease terms would be to kind of make sure, again, you kind of get those benefits back in when ultimately this tenant starts to recover?

是的，我只是想回到 Juan 和 Connor 關於一些重組租約的問題。 Shankh，你指出你正在研究結構，以幫助你恢復一些最初的租金減免或你在短期內給予這些租戶的任何好處。您能否談談這些租賃條款中的一些條款，以再次確保您在最終該租戶開始恢復時獲得這些利益？

Yes. That's a very good question, Tayo. So there are many ways you can do this. If you keep the assets under lease, you can give obviously short-term rate and -- but you can create 2 years out, 3 years out, depending on the level of EBITDA. You can do all bells and whistles to recoup that rent as cash flow comes back. And that's the point we were trying to make. Remember this is -- cash flow is now starting to come back, right? So that's sort of if you retain it, obviously, in the lease. Remember, these leases are not -- there's nothing behind the leases. There's a propco interest sits behind the leases. So you have a value protection.

是的。這是一個很好的問題，Tayo。所以有很多方法可以做到這一點。如果您保留資產租賃，您可以提供明顯的短期利率，並且 - 但您可以創建 2 年、3 年，具體取決於 EBITDA 的水平。當現金流回來時，你可以做所有的花里胡哨的事情來收回租金。這就是我們試圖表達的觀點。請記住這是——現金流現在開始回升，對吧？所以很明顯，如果你在租約中保留它，那就是這樣。請記住，這些租約不是——租約背後沒有任何內容。租約背後有 propco 利益。所以你有一個價值保護。

If you go to RIDEA, right, we are not afraid, Tayo, to get -- take a rent stance and if that is what, what is the sustainable level of rent from the sustainable level of production, right? You saw that we bought a new -- we did a -- we bought a bunch of new assets in the quarter -- reported quarter where we did a triple-net lease with a highly respected operator. In that particular case, you would say, why didn't they do a RIDEA? Because if you look at in that portfolio, what we bought, the rent before us was substantially higher, right, 50% higher that you are paying to the previous landlord.

如果你去 RIDEA，對，我們不害怕，Tayo，採取租金立場，如果那是什麼，可持續生產水平的可持續租金水平是多少，對嗎？你看到我們買了一個新的——我們做了一個——我們在這個季度買了一堆新資產——報告的季度我們與一家備受尊敬的運營商進行了三網租賃。在那種情況下，你會說，他們為什麼不做 RIDEA？因為如果你看看那個投資組合，我們買了什麼，擺在我們面前的租金要高得多，對，比你付給前任房東的租金高出 50%。

Our rent is much lower. We set it in our way. But then we have some sort of a catch-up. Our rent goes up, not by 3%, but as the EBITDA comes back significantly, and the EBITDA is already moving in that direction, we have a provision to get some more rent. It is also, for the operator, at some point, they were paying 50% higher rent. And they will end up probably paying from the current rent level, 10% more, 15% more, but they will keep rest of the cash flow, right? So it works out on both sides. Why does it work out on both sides? Because the basis is lower. The issue is not -- a lease is fundamentally a form of a leverage and if you put the basis in the assets so much higher, and then you put a high LTV loan or high LTV credit for the lease, you are kind of creating problems from two ends. In this case, it's a very low basis that helps both parties, the owner as well as the operators, to make money going forward.

我們的租金要低得多。我們以我們的方式設置它。但後來我們有某種追趕。我們的租金上漲了 3%，但隨著 EBITDA 顯著回升，並且 EBITDA 已經朝著這個方向發展，我們有準備獲得更多租金。對於運營商來說，在某些時候，他們支付的租金也高出 50%。他們最終可能會支付當前租金水平，多 10%，多 15%，但他們會保留其餘的現金流，對嗎？所以它對雙方都有好處。為什麼它對雙方都有效？因為基數低。問題不是——租賃從根本上說是一種槓桿形式，如果你將資產的基礎設置得如此之高，然後你為租賃提供高 LTV 貸款或高 LTV 信用，你就會產生問題從兩端。在這種情況下，這是一個非常低的基礎，可以幫助雙方（所有者和運營商）在未來賺錢。

Going back to your specific question, there's a lot of collateral that sits behind these leases from this specific issue that Juan and Connor, and now you're asking about. This particular operator, which is one of the most respected operators in our space, has a substantial amount of propco interest that they have created through a very significant development machine through '90s. And that propco interest sits behind that lease. So let's just say, you can do it from a lease. This is just a general statement, or you can go to a RIDEA, right? If you go to a RIDEA the ownership will change and will reflect the fact that their future liability is lower, a.k.a. we lost an asset. And we have enacted that, backed that lease, and we have an opportunity in that restructuring to own more of the real estate, not the same amount. That's the way to think about it.

回到你的具體問題，Juan 和 Connor 的這個具體問題的這些租約背後有很多抵押品，現在你問的是。這個特定的運營商是我們領域中最受尊敬的運營商之一，他們通過 90 年代非常重要的開發機器創造了大量的 propco 興趣。該 propco 利益位於該租約的後面。所以我們只是說，你可以通過租約來做。這個只是籠統的說法，要不你去個RIDEA也可以吧？如果你去 RIDEA，所有權將會改變，並反映出他們未來的負債較低的事實，也就是我們失去了一項資產。我們已經制定了該協議，支持該租約，並且我們有機會在重組中擁有更多的房地產，而不是相同的數量。這就是思考它的方式。

Our next question comes from the line of Nick Yulico with Scotiabank.

我們的下一個問題來自豐業銀行的 Nick Yulico。

So looking at a couple of different slides you guys have and just trying to put this all together. So you had this slide that's showing the future NOI potential getting back to pre-COVID occupancy. And yet at the same time, you're not providing full year guidance for this year. So on one hand, you're implying a lot of optimism about getting back to an occupancy number which is much higher than where you are right now. Yet you're not really willing to commit to an occupancy range on the year.

因此，請查看你們擁有的幾張不同的幻燈片，然後嘗試將它們放在一起。所以你有這張幻燈片，它顯示了未來 NOI 恢復到 COVID 前入住率的潛力。但與此同時，您沒有提供今年的全年指導。因此，一方面，您暗示對恢復到比現在高得多的入住率持樂觀態度。然而，您並不是真的願意承諾當年的入住率範圍。

And I guess I'm just wondering what is giving you confidence that you're going to get back to a higher occupancy level. I mean the 20 basis points of April occupancy benefit seems like it's a smaller number than what you were talking about with your weekly benefit when you put out a presentation earlier this month. So I'm just trying to -- I'm just wondering if there's something that you can point to. You have a backlog of pent-up demand that you're learning from prospective residents that's going to increase move-ins as you get into the third quarter and beyond. I mean what else can we sort of point to here that you think should give us confidence that you're going to get back to pre-COVID occupancy?

我想我只是想知道是什麼讓你有信心回到更高的入住率水平。我的意思是，4 月份入住收益的 20 個基點似乎比您本月早些時候發表演講時所說的每週收益要小。所以我只是想——我只是想知道是否有什麼可以指出的。你有大量被壓抑的需求，你從潛在居民那裡了解到，隨著你進入第三季度及以後，這些需求將會增加。我的意思是我們還能在這裡指出什麼，你認為應該讓我們相信你會回到 COVID 之前的入住率？

Yes. So nowhere on that slide, if you go back and say -- see that we said we will. We just said, if we do go back to that occupancy, this is what the numbers looks like under this assumption of no rent [cross] and at the margin that it was at that point in time. You will decide whether we will go back or not go back, that's a matter of opinion. What we have stated on that slide is a matter of fact. So that's sort of the number one point. Number 2 point, we are nowhere implying that you will get to that number within a specific time frame. Full year guidance that you have raised, that is a specific time frame. We're not committing to a specific time frame on that $480 million which is on Slide 13 of the presentation because, frankly, we have no clue, right?

是的。所以在幻燈片上沒有任何地方，如果你回過頭來說——看看我們說過我們會的。我們只是說，如果我們確實回到那個入住率，這就是在沒有租金 [交叉] 的假設下以及那個時間點的利潤率下的數字。您將決定我們是否返回或不返回，這是見仁見智的問題。我們在那張幻燈片上所說的是事實。所以這是第一點。第 2 點，我們無處暗示您將在特定時間範圍內達到該數字。您提出的全年指導是一個特定的時間框架。我們沒有承諾演示文稿幻燈片 13 上的 4.8 億美元的具體時間框架，因為坦率地說，我們沒有任何線索，對吧？

Third, I mentioned on my presentation or prepared remarks, that we are -- this is probably the most optimistic I've heard all of our operating partners from an industry momentum perspective. We're yet to see it on sort of in our occupancy. Hopefully, we'll see it. We're not baking. We're not sort of counting on it. We're not giving you an occupancy guidance per se. We're giving you an FFO guidance, and we're simply telling you what underlies that FFO guidance, which is basically straight-lining what we have seen so far. Hopefully, that answers your question.

第三，我在我的演講或準備好的發言中提到，從行業勢頭的角度來看，這可能是我聽到的所有運營合作夥伴中最樂觀的。我們還沒有在入住時看到它。希望我們會看到它。我們不是在烘烤。我們並沒有指望它。我們本身並不是為您提供入住指南。我們正在為您提供 FFO 指南，我們只是告訴您 FFO 指南的基礎是什麼，這基本上是我們目前所見的直線。希望這能回答您的問題。

Our next question comes from the line of Lukas Hartwich with Green Street.

我們的下一個問題來自 Lukas Hartwich 和 Green Street 的台詞。

You said bottom on SHOP occupancy. And it kind of looks steady based on some of the numbers you put in your release, but I'm just hoping you can talk a little bit more about the cadence of the increase in occupancy over the past 6 weeks? Is it steady? Or is it bumpier? Just kind of curious what that looks like.

你說的是 SHOP 佔用率的底部。根據你發布的一些數字，它看起來有點穩定，但我只是希望你能多談談過去 6 週入住率增加的節奏？穩定嗎？還是比較顛簸？只是有點好奇那看起來像什麼。

Six weeks is not a long enough time frame, Lukas, to give you a trend. But if you insist, I can tell you if it is 60 basis points over 6 weeks, the weeks that are closer to us today have seen higher than the 10 and the weeks that are farther from us have seen lower than the 10. But 6 weeks is not a good enough time frame for you to project. At least we don't have confidence to project that. I can tell you the tone of our operating partners is a lot more positive than what you're seeing. I want to see first in the numbers and then talk about it. This is a highly uncertain environment. We're just not going to sit here and try to guess what things -- how things might or might not play out.

盧卡斯，六週的時間不足以給你一個趨勢。但如果你堅持，我可以告訴你，如果它在 6 週內是 60 個基點，今天離我們較近的周比 10 高，離我們遠的周比 10 低。但是 6幾週的時間框架不足以讓您進行預測。至少我們沒有信心進行預測。我可以告訴你，我們的運營合作夥伴的語氣比你所看到的要積極得多。我想先看看數字，然後再談論它。這是一個高度不確定的環境。我們只是不會坐在這裡試圖猜測什麼事情 - 事情可能會或可能不會發生。

Remember, there is a possibility things can get much worse. If we have significant resurgence of COVID, it can get worse, right? So we're just telling you what we are seeing. We're telling you things, obviously, seasonally, we're seeing things improving. But we just were not ready to go out and tell you that things will successively get better every week and we have some sort of a secret sauce to see that. It's just a highly uncertain environment.

請記住，事情有可能變得更糟。如果我們有 COVID 的顯著復甦，它會變得更糟，對嗎？所以我們只是告訴你我們所看到的。我們告訴你一些事情，顯然，季節性的，我們看到事情正在改善。但我們還沒有準備好出去告訴你情況每週都會逐漸好轉，我們有某種秘方可以證明這一點。這只是一個高度不確定的環境。

Our next question comes from the line of Daniel Bernstein with Capital One.

我們的下一個問題來自 Daniel Bernstein 與 Capital One 的對話。

I just wanted to go back to the idea of pricing power within seniors housing. And I haven't fully run the numbers, but my guess is with home prices rising significantly, rent prices rising significantly, seniors housing is probably about as affordable as it's been in the last 20 years. So I don't know if you've had discussions or thought about it with your operators, but maybe how -- does that change the equation of what occupancy levels need to be for the industry to have pricing power? Traditionally, you think about 85% or better occupancy for pricing power, but maybe the equation has changed some. So just try...

我只想回到老年人住房中的定價權的想法。我還沒有完全計算出這些數字，但我的猜測是隨著房價大幅上漲，租金價格大幅上漲，老年人住房可能與過去 20 年一樣負擔得起。所以我不知道你是否與你的運營商討論過或考慮過這個問題，但也許這會如何改變行業擁有定價權所需的入住率水平？傳統上，您會考慮 85% 或更高的入住率來獲得定價權，但也許這個等式已經發生了一些變化。所以只是嘗試...

Very good question. I'm happy to start sort of the -- engage in a guesswork with you. But it is a guesswork nonetheless. I can tell you, historically speaking, HPA or house price appreciation index has a very strong correlation with, obviously, rent growth. But this is a very interesting market, right? It's unprecedented in many, many ways. You haven't seen this kind of housing shortage combined with demand. You haven't seen this kind of escalation of rent -- I mean cost that makes it very, very difficult to build something. Reasonably speaking, I would say, if all of those are together, you should see rent growth. At the same time, you have to acknowledge the fact that entire industry is in lease-up, right?

很好的問題。我很高興開始 - 與您進行猜測。但這仍然是一個猜測。我可以告訴你，從歷史上看，HPA 或房價升值指數顯然與租金增長有很強的相關性。但這是一個非常有趣的市場，對吧？這在很多很多方面都是前所未有的。你還沒有看到這種住房短缺與需求相結合的情況。你還沒有看到這種租金上漲——我的意思是成本使得建造一些東西變得非常非常困難。合理地說，我會說，如果所有這些都加在一起，你應該會看到租金增長。同時，你不得不承認整個行業都處於租賃狀態，對吧？

So I am not comfortable underwriting a lot of rent growth, but I also believe that you will see modest rent growth like you are seeing. Now do I think that 3 years from now, the rent growth will be better than what we are seeing today. That's reasonable to expect. Do I know for sure? No, but I think that's reasonable to expect.

所以我不願意承保大量的租金增長，但我也相信你會看到像你現在看到的那樣適度的租金增長。現在我認為 3 年後，租金增長會比我們今天看到的更好。這是合理的期望。我確定知道嗎？不，但我認為這是合理的期望。

We have a follow-up question from Lukas Hartwich with Green Street.

Green Street 的 Lukas Hartwich 向我們提出了後續問題。

On the HC-One loan, I'm just curious if you could provide the debt service coverage, what that looks like on pre-COVID NOI from that portfolio or that company.

關於 HC-One 貸款，我只是好奇您是否可以提供償債範圍，即該投資組合或公司在 COVID 之前的 NOI 上的情況。

Lukas, can I get back to you on that? I don't have that on top of my mind. It's -- I'll get back to you on that. I can tell you, on an LTV basis, if you ascribe no value to the actual business which backs the loan, not just the real estate, the overall V in that LTV is extremely low. And it's a substantial, substantial discount to replacement cost. But I don't have the service coverage ratio pre-COVID basis in my head. I will call you offline and give you that number.

盧卡斯，我可以就此回复你嗎？我沒有把那個放在首位。它是 - 我會就此回复你。我可以告訴你，在 LTV 的基礎上，如果你不給支持貸款的實際業務賦予任何價值，而不僅僅是房地產，那麼 LTV 中的整體 V 是極低的。而且這是對重置成本的大幅折扣。但我腦子裡沒有 COVID 之前的服務覆蓋率基礎。我會在線下給你打電話，給你那個號碼。

We have a follow-up question from the line of Omotayo Okusanya with Mizuho.

我們有來自 Omotayo Okusanya 與 Mizuho 的後續問題。

Just a quick one for Tim. Tim, I noticed that there was a little bit of equity issuance this quarter, about $270 million. Just talk a little bit about why that decision was made when, again, you guys have so much cash on balance sheet.

對蒂姆來說只是一個快速的。蒂姆，我注意到本季度有一點股票發行，大約 2.7 億美元。只是談談為什麼在你們資產負債表上有這麼多現金的時候做出這個決定。

Yes, Tayo, it's a great question. And it really has to do with confidence in our pipeline. So we've got -- between our development spend and the external opportunities we're seeing, it's got less to do, and that's why you're seeing it done in a forward structure, is it will fund activity when it occurs, but it's a highly visible activity.

是的，Tayo，這是一個很好的問題。這確實與我們對管道的信心有關。所以我們已經 - 在我們的開發支出和我們看到的外部機會之間，它要做的事情更少，這就是為什麼你看到它以遠期結構完成，它是否會在活動發生時提供資金，但是這是一個高度可見的活動。

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating, and you may now disconnect.

謝謝。女士們，先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與，您現在可以斷開連接。