Wayfair Inc (W) 2021 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Rob, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Wayfair Fourth Quarter 2021 Earnings Release and Conference Call. (Operator Instructions). Thank you.

早上好。我的名字是 Rob，今天我將成為您的會議接線員。在這個時候，我想歡迎大家參加 Wayfair 2021 年第四季度收益發布和電話會議。 （操作員說明）。謝謝你。

Landry Ngambia, Director of Investor Relations, you may begin your conference.

Landry Ngambia，投資者關係總監，您可以開始您的會議了。

Good morning, and thank you for joining us. Today, we will review our fourth quarter 2021 results. With me are Niraj Shah, co-Founder, Chief Executive Officer and co-Chairman; Steve Conine, co-Founder and co-Chairman; and Michael Fleisher, Chief Financial Officer. We will all be available for Q&A following today's prepared remarks.

早上好，感謝您加入我們。今天，我們將回顧 2021 年第四季度的業績。與我同行的是聯合創始人、首席執行官兼聯合主席 Niraj Shah； Steve Conine，聯合創始人兼聯合主席；和首席財務官 Michael Fleisher。在今天準備好的評論之後，我們都可以進行問答。

I would like to remind you that during this call, we will make forward-looking statements regarding future events and financial performance, including guidance for the first quarter of 2022. We cannot guarantee that any forward-looking statements will be accurate, although we believe that we've been reasonable in our expectations and assumptions.

我想提醒您，在本次電話會議期間，我們將對未來事件和財務業績做出前瞻性陳述，包括對 2022 年第一季度的指導。我們不能保證任何前瞻性陳述都是準確的，儘管我們相信我們的期望和假設是合理的。

Our 10-K for 2021 and our subsequent 8-K filings identify certain factors that could cause the company's actual results to differ materially from those projected in any forward-looking statements made today. Except as required by law, we undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any of these statements, whether as a result of any new information, future events or otherwise.

我們 2021 年的 10-K 和我們隨後提交的 8-K 文件確定了可能導致公司實際結果與今天做出的任何前瞻性陳述中預測的結果大不相同的某些因素。除法律要求外，我們沒有義務公開更新或修改任何這些聲明，無論是由於任何新信息、未來事件或其他原因。

Also please note that as we review the company's performance during this call, we will discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures, including adjusted EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA margin and free cash flow. These non-GAAP financial measures should not be considered replacements for and should be read together with GAAP results.

另請注意，當我們在本次電話會議期間審查公司業績時，我們將討論某些非公認會計原則財務指標，包括調整後的 EBITDA、調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率和自由現金流。這些非公認會計原則財務指標不應被視為替代，應與公認會計原則結果一起閱讀。

Please refer to the Investor Relations section of our website to obtain a copy of our earnings release and our investor presentation, which contain descriptions of our non-GAAP financial measures and reconciliations of non-GAAP measures to the nearest comparable GAAP measures.

請參閱我們網站的投資者關係部分，以獲取我們的收益發布和投資者演示文稿的副本，其中包含對我們的非 GAAP 財務指標的描述以及非 GAAP 指標與最接近的可比 GAAP 指標的對賬。

This call is being recorded, and a webcast will be available for replay on our Investor Relations website.

本次通話正在錄音中，我們的投資者關係網站將提供網絡直播以供重播。

I would now like to turn the call over to Niraj.

我現在想把電話轉給 Niraj。

Thank you, Landry, and good morning, everyone. It's great to reconnect with you today to share the details of Wayfair's fourth quarter 2021 results.

謝謝你，蘭德里，大家早上好。很高興今天與您重新聯繫，分享 Wayfair 2021 年第四季度業績的詳細信息。

2022 marks the 20th anniversary since Steve and I started the business. In our annual shareholder letter, also published today, we talk about what we're doing to set ourselves up for the next 20 years.

2022 年是史蒂夫和我創業 20 週年。在我們今天發布的年度股東信中，我們談論了我們為未來 20 年所做的工作。

When we launched Wayfair, we used the tagline a Zillion Things Home. Today, we have embraced everything home for a space that's all you. Even as taglines change, one thing has remained consistent for Wayfair throughout, and that is our focus on the customer and building a shopping destination where everyone can find their own unique expression of home.

當我們推出 Wayfair 時，我們使用了 Zillion Things Home 的標語。今天，我們已經擁抱了家中的一切，為您打造了一個屬於您的空間。即使標語發生變化，Wayfair 始終保持一致的一件事，那就是我們關注客戶並建立一個購物目的地，每個人都可以找到自己獨特的家表達方式。

You've heard us talk at length about how we do this through our platform business model, bringing together tens of thousands of the industry suppliers and tens of millions of customers for the widest possible selection and choice. You've heard us talk about the investments we have made across technology and end-to-end logistics to build a unique and purposeful online shopping experience, and offer Wayfair shoppers fast and reliable delivery.

您已經聽我們詳細談論了我們如何通過我們的平台商業模式做到這一點，將數以萬計的行業供應商和數以千萬計的客戶聚集在一起，以提供盡可能廣泛的選擇和選擇。您聽過我們談論我們在技術和端到端物流方面所做的投資，以建立獨特而有目的的在線購物體驗，並為 Wayfair 購物者提供快速可靠的送貨服務。

The customer experience is what continues to drive every decision we make as we work to optimize it for today, 5, 10 and 20 years from now. Wayfair has grown from 2 entrepreneurs who saw a massive market opportunity to a world-class team with more than 16,000 employees globally.

客戶體驗將繼續推動我們做出的每一個決定，因為我們正在努力為今天、5 年、10 年和 20 年進行優化。 Wayfair 已經從 2 位看到巨大市場機會的企業家成長為在全球擁有 16,000 多名員工的世界級團隊。

We all share the same vision and wake up every morning eager to serve our customer and supplier partners. Most humbling is that we recognize that we have only just scratched the surface, taking stock of the more recent past, the last 2 years post unusual challenges for us and the industry as a whole, but meeting those challenges came with opportunity.

我們都有共同的願景，每天早上醒來都渴望為我們的客戶和供應商合作夥伴服務。最令人羞愧的是，我們認識到我們才剛剛觸及表面，對最近的過去進行了評估，過去兩年對我們和整個行業都帶來了不同尋常的挑戰，但迎接這些挑戰伴隨著機遇。

The onset of COVID in 2020 redefined how focused customers are on their homes and shifted how much time they intend to spend there. Never ending to-do lists grew, and online demand surged, which allowed Wayfair to demonstrate the true scalability and structural economics of our platform.

2020 年新冠疫情的爆發重新定義了客戶對家的關注程度，並改變了他們打算在那裡度過的時間。永無止境的待辦事項清單不斷增長，在線需求激增，這讓 Wayfair 展示了我們平台的真正可擴展性和結構經濟性。

2021 began the normalization process, though the world is still working through the ripple effects of the pandemic. As countries around the world reopened at their own pace last year, home category growth remains largely resilient, but the pendulum swung back with outsized strength in physical stores as consumers sought to return to old habits.

2021 年開始了正常化進程，儘管世界仍在努力應對大流行的連鎖反應。隨著世界各國去年以自己的步伐重新開放，家居品類的增長在很大程度上仍然具有彈性，但隨著消費者尋求回歸舊習慣，實體店的鐘擺又出現了巨大的力量。

Supply chain disruptions impacted economies everywhere due in part to repeated factory closures and port log jams around the world. These cascaded into global inventory shortages and widespread inflation.

供應鏈中斷影響了世界各地的經濟，部分原因是世界各地反復關閉工廠和港口原木堵塞。這些導致全球庫存短缺和普遍的通貨膨脹。

Our teams reacted to support the needs of our suppliers and customers as we navigated 2021, and we are now leaning in to capture the benefits of returning inventory normalization in 2022.

我們的團隊在 2021 年做出反應，以支持我們的供應商和客戶的需求，我們現在正努力在 2022 年獲得回歸庫存正常化的好處。

Throughout the pandemic, our core strategy did not waiver. The primary elements for success in our category have not changed. The home is and will remain top of mind, and secular trends favor a durable shift to e-commerce.

在整個大流行期間，我們的核心戰略並未放棄。在我們的類別中取得成功的主要因素沒有改變。家庭現在並將繼續成為首要考慮因素，長期趨勢有利於向電子商務的持久轉變。

Serving our $800 billion plus total addressable market is only possible in the long run through richness of assortment, easy and enjoyable product discovery, and fast, reliable, cost-efficient delivery. We're orienting the business to win across each of these dimensions through a technology-first approach and investing accordingly, making sure that our platform is built to win, irrespective of the ebbs and flows in the macro environment.

從長遠來看，只有通過豐富的分類、輕鬆愉快的產品發現以及快速、可靠、經濟高效的交付，才能為我們 8000 億美元以上的潛在市場提供服務。我們正在通過技術優先的方法和相應的投資來引導業務在這些維度中取勝，確保我們的平台能夠贏得勝利，而不受宏觀環境中的潮起潮落的影響。

Let me take a moment here to walk you through what we are doing across these dimensions. When it comes to assortment, it all starts with our supplier partners. Our ability to offer industry-leading assortment has enabled buyer supplier base. And last year, we onboarded more than 7,000 new suppliers.

讓我在這里花點時間向您介紹我們在這些維度上所做的事情。在分類方面，一切都始於我們的供應商合作夥伴。我們提供行業領先的產品組合的能力使買家成為供應商基礎。去年，我們加入了 7,000 多家新供應商。

Having a wide variety of suppliers on the platform is important, not just in maximizing selection, but also driving the kind of healthy competitive tension that leads to more innovation and even better pricing for our customers.

在平台上擁有各種各樣的供應商很重要，不僅可以最大限度地增加選擇，還可以推動一種健康的競爭壓力，從而為我們的客戶帶來更多創新和更好的定價。

In 2021, we resumed in-person engagement with our suppliers, including through our summit events. Through these interactions, and also through enhanced supplier-facing communications and survey work, we are gathering valuable feedback that we are then putting into action. A core part of this is building user-friendly technology solutions to improve the supplier experience and enable them to succeed as effortlessly as possible on the Wayfair platform.

2021 年，我們恢復了與供應商的面對面接觸，包括通過我們的峰會活動。通過這些互動，以及加強面向供應商的溝通和調查工作，我們正在收集寶貴的反饋意見，然後將其付諸行動。其中一個核心部分是構建用戶友好的技術解決方案，以改善供應商體驗，並使他們能夠在 Wayfair 平台上盡可能輕鬆地取得成功。

Finding success on Wayfair embolden suppliers to lean in with their whole catalogs, including by offering items on Wayfair that are not available on other mass platforms. In 2021, our selection grew by more than 11 million products. Within our flagship house brand portfolio in the U.S., a meaningful share of goods is extended to Wayfair with a degree of exclusivity, and we have strong momentum in following the same playbook in our international markets.

在 Wayfair 上取得成功會鼓勵供應商使用他們的整個目錄，包括在 Wayfair 上提供其他大眾平台上沒有的商品。 2021 年，我們的選擇增加了超過 1100 萬種產品。在我們在美國的旗艦品牌組合中，相當一部分商品以一定程度的排他性擴展到 Wayfair，我們在國際市場上遵循同樣的策略有著強勁的勢頭。

As our assortment grows, finding exactly the right product among millions of items is not a trivial exercise. Our customers look at dozens of items before settling on the perfect choice for their home. Among our most important assets is a deep and growing data-driven understanding of customer behavior. Through data science and machine learning, we are building an increasingly personalized shopping experience for each customer and are starting to develop stronger content to appeal to unique customer profiles.

隨著我們產品種類的增加，在數以百萬計的商品中找到最合適的產品並非易事。我們的客戶在確定他們家的完美選擇之前會查看數十種物品。我們最重要的資產之一是對客戶行為的深入且不斷增長的數據驅動理解。通過數據科學和機器學習，我們正在為每位客戶打造越來越個性化的購物體驗，並開始開發更強大的內容來吸引獨特的客戶資料。

You will also have seen our announcements about upcoming physical store launches in 2022 and beyond across our portfolio of brands. Our specialty retail brand concepts will debut later this year and will be 10,000 to 15,000 square feet in size. While the Wayfair store format will be substantially larger and is slated to first open in 2023, these spaces will allow us to tap into the store-based portion of our TAM and will be valuable avenues for discovery, visualization and marketing, complementing all that we are doing in e-commerce.

您還將看到我們關於 2022 年及以後在我們的品牌組合中即將推出的實體店的公告。我們的專業零售品牌概念將於今年晚些時候首次亮相，面積將達到 10,000 至 15,000 平方英尺。雖然 Wayfair 商店格式將大大擴大，併計劃於 2023 年首次開業，但這些空間將使我們能夠利用我們 TAM 的商店部分，並將成為發現、可視化和營銷的寶貴途徑，補充我們的所有正在做電子商務。

Now that we've talked about assortment and discovery, let's shift gears to delivery and logistics. Just a few minutes ago, I referenced the supply chain disruption our industry has faced for the last 2 years and how our team is planning to continue to tackle it over the course of 2022.

既然我們已經討論了分類和發現，那麼讓我們轉向交付和物流。就在幾分鐘前，我提到了我們行業在過去 2 年中面臨的供應鏈中斷，以及我們的團隊計劃如何在 2022 年繼續解決這個問題。

Though we're not completely immune to global supply challenges, nowhere is it more apparent than in logistics how our philosophy of thinking and investing for the long term can serve us. Four years ago, we recognized that there was an opportunity to drive even more efficiency for our suppliers by becoming a digital freight forwarder. In doing so, we stood up a logistics solution to reliably and cost effectively get products from where they are manufactured to as close to the end customer as possible in North America and Europe, a solution we now call CastleGate Forwarding.

儘管我們並非完全不受全球供應挑戰的影響，但在物流領域，我們的長期思考和投資理念如何為我們服務更明顯。四年前，我們認識到通過成為數字貨運代理可以為我們的供應商提高效率。為此，我們建立了一個物流解決方案，以可靠且經濟高效地將產品從製造地運送到盡可能靠近北美和歐洲的最終客戶，我們現在將這種解決方案稱為 CastleGate Forwarding。

In 2021, as the industry watched ocean container prices spike, CastleGate Forwarding offered a safety net for many of our suppliers and moved more than 80,000 20-foot equivalent containers during the year. This was not a onetime fix, but instead the result of several years of forward thinking into solving an industry problem, albeit one that ended up getting quite acute last year and is likely to remain so in 2022. This year, we expect to roughly double CastleGate Forwarding volume, which makes us a significant player in this industry.

2021 年，隨著行業目睹海運集裝箱價格飆升，CastleGate Forwarding 為我們的許多供應商提供了安全網，並在這一年運送了 80,000 多個 20 英尺當量集裝箱。這不是一次性的解決方案，而是多年來對解決行業問題的前瞻性思考的結果，儘管這一問題在去年變得非常尖銳，並且很可能在 2022 年仍然如此。今年，我們預計大約翻一番CastleGate 轉發量，這使我們成為該行業的重要參與者。

We had started CastleGate Forwarding specifically to solve the problems of 2021 and '22. We did it to create value for our suppliers and our customers. The value of this solution will only grow as our scale increases and as we add services over time, such as our domestic break bulk facilities, which began to come online in the last quarter.

我們專門啟動了 CastleGate Forwarding 來解決 2021 年和 22 年的問題。我們這樣做是為了為我們的供應商和客戶創造價值。這個解決方案的價值只會隨著我們規模的擴大和隨著時間的推移增加服務而增長，例如我們的國內散雜貨設施，該設施於上個季度開始上線。

I want to zoom back in now because aggressive execution is what turns visions into reality, and that's exactly what we're aiming for this year. For almost 2 years now, suppliers have been selling product nearly as fast as it could be produced, and we're justifiably less focused on optimizing inventory positioning.

我現在想放大，因為積極的執行是將願景變為現實的原因，而這正是我們今年的目標。近兩年來，供應商銷售產品的速度幾乎與生產速度一樣快，而且我們不太專注於優化庫存定位是有道理的。

Lead times expanded and speed promises degraded. While shoppers temporarily accepted these circumstances, they did so begrudgingly, and our customer insights continue to show that availability and speed are still very important to them. Now that inventory levels are recovering, we are leaning in with our fulfillment network to once again deliver on those customer speed expectations and to reinforce the inherent benefits of our proprietary logistics infrastructure.

交貨時間延長，速度承諾降低。儘管購物者暫時接受了這些情況，但他們還是不情願地這樣做了，我們的客戶洞察力繼續表明可用性和速度對他們來說仍然非常重要。現在庫存水平正在恢復，我們正依靠我們的履行網絡再次滿足客戶對速度的期望，並加強我們專有物流基礎設施的內在優勢。

For 2022, we've created a tangible set of financial and operational incentives for our suppliers to drive even more product through our CastleGate network, and we expect penetration to return to and then exceed pre-pandemic highs.

到 2022 年，我們為供應商制定了一套切實的財務和運營激勵措施，以通過我們的 CastleGate 網絡推動更多產品，我們預計滲透率將恢復並超過大流行前的高點。

As this plays out, our customers will win through the plethora of choice and the convenience of fast delivery. Participating suppliers will win because the cost and speed advantages translate into lower retail prices and conversion gains. These commercial benefits and cost efficiencies will also accrue to Wayfair, accelerating a self-reinforcing flywheel effect.

隨著這種情況的發展，我們的客戶將通過過多的選擇和快速交付的便利而獲勝。參與的供應商將獲勝，因為成本和速度優勢轉化為較低的零售價格和轉換收益。這些商業利益和成本效益也將歸於 Wayfair，加速自我強化的飛輪效應。

I'm just giving you a flavor of how we're building durable advantages across all aspects of the Wayfair platform by continuing to think and invest longer term. With this mindset and the backing of a solid balance sheet, we're navigating today's challenges, while empowering thousands of Wayfairians to focus on our customer and the future.

我只是讓您了解我們如何通過繼續思考和長期投資來在 Wayfair 平台的各個方面建立持久優勢。憑藉這種心態和穩健的資產負債表，我們正在應對當今的挑戰，同時讓成千上萬的 Wayfairians 能夠專注於我們的客戶和未來。

When we began this journey, Steve and I had some ambitious goals for what Wayfair could be in 2 decades. We had aspired to think about the business in the long term, focused on years and not quarters. Wayfair has accomplished a lot already, and there is so much more opportunity ahead.

當我們開始這段旅程時，史蒂夫和我對 Wayfair 未來 2 年的發展有一些雄心勃勃的目標。我們一直渴望從長遠角度考慮業務，專注於年而不是季度。 Wayfair 已經取得了很多成就，而且還有更多的機會。

Wayfair has matured and reached the point where we can sustainably marry growth, profitability and continuous investment each year. At the same time, we remain comfortable with the quarterly volatility that inevitably results from disruptive thinking. Though there's a lot of macro noise to work through today, this is also how we think about 2022.

Wayfair 已經成熟並達到了我們每年可以可持續地結合增長、盈利能力和持續投資的地步。與此同時，我們仍然對顛覆性思維不可避免地導致的季度波動感到滿意。儘管今天有很多宏觀噪音需要解決，但這也是我們對 2022 年的看法。

Before I hand it over to Steve, I want to touch on our upcoming CTO transition, which we announced last month. As part of the longstanding succession plan, Jim Miller, our Chief Technology Officer, who is also a long-time Board member prior to that, is retiring. And Fiona Tan, our current Global Head of Customer and Supplier Technology, will step into the CTO role.

在我把它交給史蒂夫之前，我想談談我們上個月宣布的即將到來的 CTO 過渡。作為長期繼任計劃的一部分，我們的首席技術官吉姆·米勒（Jim Miller）在此之前也是長期的董事會成員，他將退休。我們現任全球客戶和供應商技術主管 Fiona Tan 將擔任首席技術官一職。

Jim has been an invaluable partner and leader during a highly dynamic time and has helped transform our technology organization for the better. He leaves it in very capable hands, and we have no doubt that Fiona will take a pivotal part of our business to an even higher height. Jim will stay on as an adviser until June, and we thank him for his many contributions and dedication to Wayfair.

在這個充滿活力的時期，Jim 一直是一位寶貴的合作夥伴和領導者，並幫助我們的技術組織變得更好。他把它交給了非常有能力的人，我們毫不懷疑 Fiona 將把我們業務的關鍵部分帶到更高的高度。 Jim 將繼續擔任顧問直到六月，我們感謝他對 Wayfair 的許多貢獻和奉獻。

As we typically do, now let's turn our attention to a specific business area within Wayfair. Steve is going to talk about the latest developments across consumer financing and how that reinforces customer loyalty.

正如我們通常所做的那樣，現在讓我們將注意力轉向 Wayfair 內的特定業務領域。史蒂夫將談論消費者融資的最新發展以及如何增強客戶忠誠度。

Thank you, Niraj, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝你，Niraj，大家早上好。

The world of payments and financing is rapidly evolving, as our customer expectations around how and when they choose to pay when they shop. Our goal in this arena is to make Wayfair financially accessible to as many households as possible, and responsibly cater to their various needs.

支付和融資的世界正在迅速發展，因為我們的客戶期望他們在購物時選擇支付的方式和時間。我們在這個領域的目標是讓盡可能多的家庭在經濟上可以使用 Wayfair，並負責任地滿足他們的各種需求。

To do so, we offer a menu of compelling payment options with competitive underwriting and fee structures for both customers and for Wayfair. We're also incorporating loyalty benefits into our financing solutions to attract new customers, increase spend and increase purchase frequency.

為此，我們為客戶和 Wayfair 提供具有競爭力的承保和費用結構的引人注目的付款選項菜單。我們還將忠誠度福利納入我們的融資解決方案，以吸引新客戶、增加支出並提高購買頻率。

Across our portfolio, we have 4 types of solutions in the financing space, the most recent of which is our offering for professionals. On the consumer side, we have credit cards, our Wayfair Financing platform and buy now, pay later, all of which cover a wide range of customer use cases, profiles and project types.

在我們的投資組合中，我們在融資領域有 4 種類型的解決方案，其中最新的是我們為專業人士提供的產品。在消費者方面，我們有信用卡、Wayfair Financing 平台和先買後付，所有這些都涵蓋了廣泛的客戶用例、配置文件和項目類型。

Each financing solution we offer is different, often coming with its own built-in brand affinity and customer networks that we can leverage. In many cases, we can customize financing options to drive Wayfair specific deals and programming. Let's talk about these in turn.

我們提供的每種融資解決方案都是不同的，通常帶有我們可以利用的內置品牌親和力和客戶網絡。在許多情況下，我們可以定制融資選項來推動 Wayfair 的特定交易和計劃。讓我們依次談談這些。

First, you've heard us talk in the past about our exciting and already sizable B2B business. It continues to enjoy strong momentum, and a big part of the flywheel for professional customers is making sure they too have compelling loyalty and financing options.

首先，您過去曾聽我們談論過我們令人興奮且已經相當規模的 B2B 業務。它繼續保持強勁勢頭，專業客戶的很大一部分飛輪是確保他們也有令人信服的忠誠度和融資選擇。

We're very excited to have partnered with Capital One Trade Credit to begin offering a Wayfair professional credit card with rewards for business shoppers and a Wayfair professional flex account with flexible payment terms, both of which we expect to roll out later this year. Customers will be able to apply with their business credentials to build credit, and we have built out a suite of business-specific features, like tracking spend by customer or project, and provisioning account access for multiple employees. We're taking what used to be a complex multidimensional process and consolidating it into a single partnership with Wayfair.

我們很高興與 Capital One Trade Credit 合作，開始為商業購物者提供帶有獎勵的 Wayfair 專業信用卡和具有靈活付款條件的 Wayfair 專業彈性賬戶，我們預計這兩者都將在今年晚些時候推出。客戶將能夠使用他們的業務憑證來建立信用，我們已經構建了一套特定於業務的功能，例如跟踪客戶或項目的支出，以及為多名員工提供帳戶訪問權限。我們將過去複雜的多維流程整合到與 Wayfair 的單一合作夥伴關係中。

Turning to our B2C side, today, Wayfair shoppers in the U.S. have 2 major credit card options that combine loyalty with financing. These are the co-branded Wayfair Mastercard and a private label Wayfair Credit Card through which we offer the choice of rewarding discounts or financing offers. Card members across both can earn 5% back in Wayfair rewards for purchases on Wayfair sites, and Wayfair Mastercard members can also earn Wayfair rewards on purchases made everywhere else.

談到我們的 B2C 方面，今天，美國的 Wayfair 購物者有兩種主要的信用卡選擇，將忠誠度與融資相結合。這些是聯合品牌的 Wayfair 萬事達卡和自有品牌 Wayfair 信用卡，我們通過它們提供獎勵折扣或融資優惠的選擇。兩者的卡會員都可以在 Wayfair 網站上購買獲得 5% 的 Wayfair 獎勵，Wayfair 萬事達卡會員也可以在其他地方購買獲得 Wayfair 獎勵。

Some of you might recall that we launched these options in the fall of 2020 in partnership with Citi, and that it represented a major improvement in customer benefits. Since the introduction, we have seen a strong response from shoppers, with over 750,000 card members now spending hundreds of millions of dollars on Wayfair per year. We've been adding tens of thousands of new card members every month. And during their first year as a card member and Wayfair, they spend 2.5x more than our average customer.

你們中的一些人可能還記得，我們在 2020 年秋季與花旗合作推出了這些選項，它代表了客戶利益的重大改進。自推出以來，我們看到了購物者的強烈反響，現在有超過 750,000 名卡會員每年在 Wayfair 上花費數億美元。我們每個月都在增加數以萬計的新卡會員。在成為卡會員和 Wayfair 的第一年，他們的花費是我們普通客戶的 2.5 倍。

For our consumers who prefer other ways to pay, we have the Wayfair Financing platform. which provides leasing and financing to meet the needs of each shopper. Customers apply just once in an accessible Wayfair native application, and eligible applicants see a menu of options available to them.

對於喜歡其他支付方式的消費者，我們有 Wayfair Financing 平台。它提供租賃和融資以滿足每個購物者的需求。客戶只需在可訪問的 Wayfair 本地應用程序中申請一次，符合條件的申請人就會看到可供他們使用的選項菜單。

Our model maximizes approved customers and minimizes their costs through a marketplace of providers. Once approved, customers are able to choose from a menu of offerings from more than half a dozen brand-name providers, such as Citizens Pay and Katapult, letting shoppers choose which format fits them best. Once again, this is a good example of how we are using a technology-first solution to introduce smart competitive dynamics to drive the best outcome for our customers.

我們的模型通過供應商市場最大限度地增加獲批客戶並最大限度地降低成本。一旦獲得批准，客戶就可以從 Citizens Pay 和 Katapult 等超過六家品牌提供商的產品菜單中進行選擇，讓購物者選擇最適合他們的格式。這又是一個很好的例子，說明我們如何使用技術優先的解決方案來引入智能競爭動態，從而為我們的客戶帶來最佳結果。

The Wayfair Financing platform is an important new customer gateway for us. This past quarter, more than half of orders that use this platform came from new customers. And over the last year, we've served more than 400,000 shoppers.

Wayfair Financing 平台對我們來說是一個重要的新客戶門戶。上個季度，使用該平台的訂單中有一半以上來自新客戶。在過去一年中，我們為超過 400,000 名購物者提供了服務。

Rounding out the set of payment solutions, eligible customers who want to pay over time without a credit application can leverage multiple buy now pay later options from leaders such as Klarna. Consumers are enthusiastically embracing these programs, and you will see our buy now pay later offerings grow in availability and competitiveness in their success.

完善這組支付解決方案，想要在沒有信用申請的情況下分期付款的合格客戶可以利用 Klarna 等領導者提供的多種“先買後付”選項。消費者熱情地接受這些計劃，您會看到我們的“先買後付”產品的可用性和競爭力在他們的成功中不斷增長。

Across the investments and partnerships we are building, our North Star is creating the most accessible shopping experience for our customers, while providing rewarding benefits. That includes increasingly personalizing their experience, even at checkout through payment solutions and extending loyalty benefits to wherever they prefer to shop, be it online or in future physical retail locations. We want to make sure we reward our customers for their loyalty as they come back again and again.

在我們正在建立的投資和合作夥伴關係中，我們的北極星正在為我們的客戶創造最便捷的購物體驗，同時提供豐厚的福利。這包括越來越個性化他們的體驗，甚至在通過支付解決方案結賬時，並將忠誠度福利擴展到他們喜歡購物的任何地方，無論是在線購物還是未來的實體零售店。我們希望確保我們獎勵客戶的忠誠度，因為他們一次又一次地回來。

Thank you, and I'll now turn the call over to Michael for a review of our financials.

謝謝，我現在將電話轉給邁克爾，以審查我們的財務狀況。

Thank you, Steve, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝你，史蒂夫，大家早上好。

Let's take a look at the financial details for the fourth quarter before discussing the outlook. As you saw in our press release this morning, Q4 total net revenue was $3.3 billion, representing an 11.4% decline year-over-year. Q4 largely played out in line with our quarter-to-date revenue commentary back in November. Even though we did begin the holiday promotional season earlier than normal in order to mitigate potential bottlenecks during the Cyber 5 period, supply chain challenges across the industry continue to persist throughout the quarter.

在討論前景之前，讓我們先看看第四季度的財務細節。正如您在今天上午的新聞稿中看到的那樣，第四季度總淨收入為 33 億美元，同比下降 11.4%。第四季度在很大程度上與我們 11 月份的季度至今收入評論一致。儘管為了緩解 Cyber 5 期間的潛在瓶頸，我們確實提前開始了假日促銷季，但整個行業的供應鏈挑戰在整個季度繼續存在。

On a segment basis, U.S. net revenue declined 8.8% from Q4 last year, while international net revenue declined by 23% year-over-year and 24.4% on a constant currency basis. It's difficult to precisely measure the performance of the online market in real time. However, we do believe our trends largely mirrored broader e-commerce softness in the period.

按部門計算，美國淨收入較去年第四季度下降 8.8%，而國際淨收入同比下降 23%，按固定匯率計算下降 24.4%。很難實時準確地衡量在線市場的表現。然而，我們確實相信我們的趨勢在很大程度上反映了這一時期更廣泛的電子商務疲軟。

As was the case back in Q3, Wayfair.com in the U.S. outperformed the consolidated business for the full quarter, while the specialty retail brands in the U.S. remained a drag. As a reminder, we're in the process of more tightly curating these specialty retail catalogs and are therefore going through a period of large negative year-over-year declines. The international business faced difficult comps in Q4 due in part to more stringent lockdowns that were in place last year.

與第三季度的情況一樣，美國的 Wayfair.com 在整個季度的表現都優於綜合業務，而美國的專業零售品牌仍然是一個拖累。提醒一下，我們正在對這些專業零售目錄進行更嚴格的管理，因此正經歷一段同比大幅下降的時期。國際業務在第四季度面臨艱難的競爭，部分原因是去年實施了更嚴格的封鎖。

Turning to Q4 KPIs at the consolidated level. In the trailing 12 months, we had more than 27 million active customers, 12.5% lower than last year. Order frequency over the last 12 months was 1.89, a slight decline year-over-year. These are continuations of the same trend we've seen over the last couple of quarters given the outsized year ago comparison.

轉向綜合層面的第四季度 KPI。在過去的 12 個月中，我們擁有超過 2700 萬活躍客戶，比去年下降 12.5%。過去 12 個月的訂單頻率為 1.89，同比略有下降。鑑於一年前的超大比較，這些是我們在過去幾個季度中看到的相同趨勢的延續。

LTM net revenue per active customer grew about 11% year-over-year to $501 driven by higher AOV, but somewhat offset by a moderate decline in order frequency. In times like these, when inflation is pervasive in the economy, we work with suppliers to hold down cost increases to the extent possible, and where necessary also pass some of these increases on to retail prices. This is what you're seeing put upward pressure on AOVs.

由於 AOV 較高，LTM 每個活躍客戶的淨收入同比增長約 11% 至 501 美元，但在一定程度上被訂單頻率的適度下降所抵消。在這樣的時期，當通貨膨脹在經濟中普遍存在時，我們與供應商合作，盡可能抑製成本上漲，並在必要時將部分上漲轉嫁到零售價格上。這就是您所看到的對 AOV 施加的上行壓力。

I'll now move further down the P&L. As I do, please note that I'll be referencing the remaining financials on a non-GAAP basis, which includes depreciation and amortization, but excludes stock-based compensation, related taxes and other adjustments. I'll use the same non-GAAP basis when discussing our outlook as well.

我現在將進一步降低損益表。正如我所做的那樣，請注意，我將在非公認會計原則的基礎上參考剩餘的財務數據，其中包括折舊和攤銷，但不包括基於股票的薪酬、相關稅收和其他調整。在討論我們的前景時，我也會使用相同的非公認會計原則基礎。

Q4 gross margin was 27.2%, in line with our guidance of 27% to 28%, and our comment that it would land towards the lower end of the range. Lower volumes year-over-year as well as inflation driven by supply chain bottlenecks and a tight labor market remain pressure points on the gross margin line.

第四季度毛利率為 27.2%，符合我們 27% 至 28% 的指導，我們的評論是它將落在該範圍的下限。同比下降以及供應鏈瓶頸和勞動力市場緊張導致的通貨膨脹仍然是毛利率的壓力點。

Customer service and merchant fees were 4.4% of net revenue in the fourth quarter, just slightly above our guidance due to increased compensation costs.

由於補償成本增加，客戶服務和商家費用佔第四季度淨收入的 4.4%，略高於我們的預期。

Advertising as a percent of net revenue was 10.6%. While digital advertising markets are also seeing some price inflation, we are staying disciplined by adhering to our ROI framework across our various marketing channels. We also continue to innovate with new channels and are being very deliberate around where we invest across the marketing funnel to unlock the best efficiencies.

廣告占淨收入的百分比為 10.6%。雖然數字廣告市場也出現了一些價格上漲，但我們通過在各種營銷渠道中堅持我們的投資回報率框架來保持紀律。我們還繼續通過新渠道進行創新，並且非常謹慎地圍繞我們在營銷渠道中進行投資以釋放最佳效率。

Our selling, operations, technology and G&A or OpEx expenses totaled $481 million, landing just on top of our outlook. As we previewed last quarter, the magnitude of the sequential step-up is a result of compensation adjustments starting to take effect in Q4. Our team also made some progress against our hiring plan, and we continued our transition to the cloud, which essentially moved some of our legacy data center CapEx spend to OpEx.

我們的銷售、運營、技術和 G&A 或 OpEx 費用總計 4.81 億美元，高於我們的預期。正如我們上個季度所預測的那樣，連續上調的幅度是薪酬調整在第四季度開始生效的結果。我們的團隊在招聘計劃方面也取得了一些進展，我們繼續向雲過渡，這基本上將我們的一些遺留數據中心資本支出轉移到了運營支出。

Putting this all together, Q4 adjusted EBITDA was negative $4 million. This was in line with our guidance for a roughly breakeven result. In the U.S., adjusted EBITDA was $65 million or a 2.4% margin, while the International segment booked adjusted EBITDA of negative $69 million.

綜上所述，第四季度調整後的 EBITDA 為負 400 萬美元。這符合我們對大致盈虧平衡結果的指導。在美國，調整後的 EBITDA 為 6500 萬美元，利潤率為 2.4%，而國際部門的調整後 EBITDA 為負 6900 萬美元。

Moving on to the balance sheet and cash flow. We ended the quarter with $2.4 billion of cash and highly liquid investments. In Q4, net cash from operating activities was $89 million, and free cash flow was $15 million after factoring in $74 million of capital expenditures.

轉到資產負債表和現金流。我們以 24 億美元的現金和高流動性投資結束了本季度。第四季度，經營活動產生的淨現金為 8900 萬美元，扣除 7400 萬美元的資本支出後，自由現金流為 1500 萬美元。

Before I turn to the details of our outlook, let me frame for you our latest thinking on the macro and how we're managing the business within that. The macro environment remains dynamic and, candidly, extremely difficult to read. Although household savings remain robust, our customers are seeing widespread inflation impact their lives and pressure their wallets. They also have more choices around where to direct their dollars as pandemic restrictions ease.

在談到我們展望的細節之前，讓我為您介紹我們對宏觀的最新想法以及我們如何在其中管理業務。宏觀環境保持動態，坦率地說，極難閱讀。儘管家庭儲蓄仍然強勁，但我們的客戶正在看到普遍的通貨膨脹影響他們的生活並給他們的錢包帶來壓力。隨著大流行限制的放鬆，他們在將資金投向何處方面也有更多選擇。

Though we are watching the state of the consumer closely, at this point, we believe that interest and demand for our category and for Wayfair remain healthy. We just have to be patient for the pendulum of behavior that Niraj described earlier to reach its equilibrium and for structural e-commerce tailwinds to become more visible again later this year.

儘管我們正在密切關註消費者的狀況，但在這一點上，我們相信對我們類別和 Wayfair 的興趣和需求仍然健康。我們只需要耐心等待 Niraj 之前描述的行為鍾擺以達到平衡，並且結構性電子商務順風在今年晚些時候再次變得更加明顯。

Let's now turn to Q1. On an orders placed basis quarter-to-date, our consolidated gross revenue is down in the low teens year-over-year. Besides the various macro crosswinds, which we are working through today, Q1 also presents a more difficult growth comparison than Q4, with the year ago period bolstered by stimulus early in the quarter and stringent lockdowns internationally.

現在讓我們轉向 Q1。在本季度迄今的訂單基礎上，我們的綜合總收入同比下降了十幾歲。除了我們今天正在經歷的各種宏觀逆風之外，與去年第四季度相比，第一季度的增長也比第四季度更加困難，因為該季度初的刺激措施和國際上的嚴格封鎖為去年同期提供了支持。

Like you, we are tracking the implied CAGRs versus 2019. These are in the positive high teens quarter-to-date and are modestly better than what we saw towards the end of 2021. Anecdotal supplier feedback also suggests stronger relative performance recently for both e-commerce and Wayfair, all of which is encouraging.

與您一樣，我們正在跟踪與 2019 年相比的隱含複合年增長率。這些是本季度至今的正高青少年，並且比我們在 2021 年底看到的要好一些。軼事供應商反饋也表明最近兩者的相對錶現更強-commerce 和 Wayfair，所有這些都令人鼓舞。

As we move forward, we're planning for revenue trends that mirror pre-pandemic seasonal sequential curves, implying greater revenue dollars in Q2 versus Q1, a similar sized Q2 and Q3 and a larger Q4 due to holiday timing. Though it's early, this is what we're seeing play out so far in this quarter.

隨著我們向前發展，我們正在計劃反映大流行前季節性連續曲線的收入趨勢，這意味著第二季度與第一季度相比，第二季度的收入收入更高，第二季度和第三季度的收入規模相似，而由於假期時間，第四季度的收入更大。雖然現在還為時過早，但這就是我們在本季度迄今為止看到的情況。

Turning now to Q1 gross margins. We continue to view 27% to 28% as a sustainable gross margin range for the time being, with clear plans in place to drive expansion above this range over the coming years. For now, however, the low end of this range continues to be most appropriate to target for Q1, particularly in light of the inflationary pressures the whole industry is dealing with.

現在轉向第一季度的毛利率。我們繼續將 27% 至 28% 的毛利率視為暫時的可持續毛利率範圍，並製定了明確的計劃以在未來幾年推動超過該範圍的擴張。然而，就目前而言，這一範圍的低端仍然最適合第一季度的目標，特別是考慮到整個行業正在應對的通脹壓力。

Moving down the P&L. We forecast customer service and merchant fees as a percentage of net revenues at 4.5%, plus or minus. Advertising as a percent of net revenue will move around depending on the opportunities we see in the period and the resulting channel mix. Based on what we're seeing thus far, the top end of our typical 10% to 11% range is reasonable to assume for Q1.

向下移動損益表。我們預測客戶服務和商家費用占淨收入的百分比為 4.5%，上下浮動。廣告占淨收入的百分比將根據我們在此期間看到的機會和由此產生的渠道組合而變化。根據我們目前所看到的情況，我們可以合理地假設第一季度典型的 10% 到 11% 範圍的上限。

SOTG&A or OpEx dollars, excluding stock-based compensation-related taxes, should be approximately $510 million to $520 million in Q1. The main drivers here, both year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter, is compensation primarily for our existing team, but also for new employees as well.

SOTG&A 或 OpEx 美元，不包括基於股票的薪酬相關稅款，在第一季度應約為 5.1 億美元至 5.2 億美元。這裡的主要驅動因素，無論是同比還是環比，主要是對我們現有團隊的薪酬，也對新員工的薪酬。

Net headcount additions in the back half of 2021 were slower than planned due to economy-wide attrition trends, all part of the so-called great resignation. However, we now have good momentum in net hiring and expect a more steady pace from here.

由於整個經濟的減員趨勢，2021 年下半年的淨員工人數增長低於計劃，所有這些都是所謂的大辭職的一部分。然而，我們現在在淨招聘方面有良好的勢頭，並預計從這裡開始會有更穩定的步伐。

Assuming the top line trends we've seen quarter-to-date continue, this would translate to a negative low single-digit adjusted EBITDA margin for the quarter. We are in great shape to handle any quarterly volatility. And provided a normal seasonal revenue cadence to the year that I mentioned above, we expect for the full year to be modestly profitable on an adjusted EBITDA basis.

假設我們本季度迄今看到的頂線趨勢繼續下去，這將轉化為該季度調整後的低個位數 EBITDA 利潤率。我們處於很好的狀態來處理任何季度波動。並且提供了我上面提到的那一年的正常季節性收入節奏，我們預計全年在調整後的 EBITDA 基礎上將適度盈利。

Touching now on a few housekeeping items, please assume the following for Q1: equity-based compensation related tax expense of approximately $112 million to $116 million; depreciation and amortization of approximately $82 million to $87 million; interest expense of approximately $8 million to $9 million; weighted average shares outstanding equal to approximately 106 million shares.

現在談到一些家務項目，請假設第一季度的情況如下：基於股權的薪酬相關稅費約為 1.12 億美元至 1.16 億美元；折舊和攤銷約為 8200 萬至 8700 萬美元；利息費用約為 800 萬至 900 萬美元；加權平均流通股數約為 1.06 億股。

Finally, we forecast CapEx in a $95 million to $105 million range in Q1. We do expect higher CapEx for the full year overall as we build out the new retail store formats and continue to invest in our logistics footprint. Specifically, we expect to have 2 new U.S.-based fulfillment centers opening in 2022.

最後，我們預測第一季度資本支出在 9500 萬美元至 1.05 億美元之間。隨著我們建立新的零售店形式並繼續投資於我們的物流足跡，我們確實預計全年的資本支出會更高。具體來說，我們預計 2022 年將在美國開設 2 個新的履行中心。

All in, Q1 will be a larger cash outflow period for us. This is typical and has to do with the timing of supplier payments post holiday and with net working capital dynamics given Q1 is a seasonally smaller period relative to the holiday enhanced Q4.

總而言之，第一季度對我們來說將是一個更大的現金流出期。這是典型的，並且與假期後供應商付款的時間以及淨營運資金動態有關，因為第一季度相對於假期增強的第四季度而言是一個季節性較小的時期。

Over the last couple of years, we have clearly demonstrated the attractive inherent economics of our business. This should not be in question. even as we consciously choose to accept some quarterly volatility on the bottom line.

在過去的幾年裡，我們清楚地展示了我們業務具有吸引力的內在經濟性。這不應該是個問題。即使我們有意識地選擇接受一些季度波動的底線。

Just to put things in perspective, our full year 2021 net revenue was 50% greater than in 2019. And yet, our headcount is down slightly over that period of time. This is a tremendous achievement that speaks to the resiliency and talent of our organization, not to mention the scalability of the investments we have made over many years in technology, infrastructure and process.

換個角度來看，我們 2021 年全年的淨收入比 2019 年高出 50%。然而，我們的員工人數在此期間略有下降。這是一項巨大的成就，說明了我們組織的彈性和人才，更不用說我們多年來在技術、基礎設施和流程方面所做投資的可擴展性。

From this point, we intend to add people to our team in a more ongoing and normalized way to support both our near-term and long-term growth and profitability initiatives. Our goal is to onboard people at a reasonable pace in order to get them executing efficiently without putting undue stress on the organization.

從這一點開始，我們打算以更加持續和規範化的方式將人員添加到我們的團隊中，以支持我們的近期和長期增長和盈利計劃。我們的目標是以合理的速度讓員工入職，以便讓他們有效地執行而不會給組織帶來過度的壓力。

Put another way, we are deliberately continuing to pursue high ROI initiatives that we know will set us up for success over many years to come. Even as we do so, and if our top line assumptions play out, we expect 2022 to be a modestly profitable year for Wayfair in adjusted EBITDA terms.

換句話說，我們有意繼續追求高投資回報率的舉措，我們知道這些舉措將為我們在未來多年的成功奠定基礎。即使我們這樣做了，並且如果我們的頂線假設發揮作用，我們預計 2022 年對於 Wayfair 來說，在調整後的 EBITDA 條件下將是適度盈利的一年。

This is what Niraj described when he referenced our ability to grow, be profitable and invest at the same time. However, if revenue normalization in the form of a more typical seasonal build quarter-over-quarter is slow to materialize, you should expect us to take a close look at our plans and course correct if we think necessary.

這就是 Niraj 在提到我們同時增長、盈利和投資的能力時所描述的。但是，如果以更典型的季度環比增長形式實現的收入正常化進展緩慢，您應該期望我們仔細研究我們的計劃，並在我們認為有必要時糾正錯誤。

Importantly, we have the benefit of a strong balance sheet to keep us focused on the long term and on striking the right balance for Wayfair, whatever the macro environment may be.

重要的是，無論宏觀環境如何，我們都受益於強大的資產負債表，使我們能夠專注於長期並為 Wayfair 取得適當的平衡。

Thank you all very much. Now Niraj, Steve and I will be happy to take your questions.

非常感謝大家。現在，Niraj、Steve 和我很樂意回答您的問題。

Thank you, everyone, for joining us this morning. We are having a couple of technical difficulties, but I also just want to take a second and say thank you for joining us in what is obviously a very difficult day for the world at large.

謝謝大家，今天早上加入我們。我們遇到了一些技術難題，但我也想花點時間說聲謝謝你們加入我們，這對整個世界來說顯然是非常艱難的一天。

The events in the Ukraine are on our minds and far outweigh what we're here to talk about this morning. But obviously, we're, of course, here and happy to take your questions, so I'll ask the operator to compile the queue and get us to the first question. Thanks.

烏克蘭的事件在我們腦海中浮現，遠遠超過了我們今天早上在這裡談論的內容。但顯然，我們當然在這裡，很樂意回答您的問題，所以我會請接線員整理隊列，讓我們回答第一個問題。謝謝。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Peter Keith from Piper Sandler.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自 Piper Sandler 的 Peter Keith。

I want to just ask about some of the near-term performance. Michael, you guys talked about improving in the quarter-to-date period to a high teens 2-year sales CAGR.

我只想問一些近期的表現。邁克爾，你們談到了從本季度到現在的兩年銷售複合年增長率。

So kind of a 2-part question. Number one, at a high-teens rate, you're running below kind of your longer-term goal to get to over $100 billion by 2030. So a, why do you think you're running below that level here? And then secondarily, you are just seeing some near-term improvement, so could you elaborate on what's maybe driving that sequential acceleration?

這是一個兩部分的問題。第一，以十幾歲的速度，你的長期目標是到 2030 年達到超過 1000 億美元。那麼，為什麼你認為你在這裡的水平低於這個水平？其次，你只是看到了一些近期的改善，那麼你能否詳細說明一下推動這種連續加速的原因是什麼？

Peter, sorry. It's Michael. We're still having some technical difficulties, And so Niraj currently muted, and we're trying to unmute him. So apologies for that. Let me try to answer your question, and then Niraj can jump in after me.

彼得，對不起。是邁克爾。我們仍然遇到一些技術難題，因此 Niraj 目前已靜音，我們正在嘗試取消靜音。所以為此道歉。讓我試著回答你的問題，然後 Niraj 可以在我後面跳進去。

I think there's a couple of things here. First, we are seeing -- as I mentioned before, we're seeing sequential improvement, and we are seeing ourselves on a normal sequential pattern now. I want to be clear, we're in a very murky environment, right? We are seeing that in January and February. We watch this on a weekly basis.

我認為這裡有幾件事。首先，我們看到——正如我之前提到的，我們看到了連續改進，我們現在看到自己處於正常的連續模式。我想澄清一下，我們處於一個非常陰暗的環境中，對吧？我們在一月和二月看到了這一點。我們每週觀看一次。

And so we are seeing coming out of Q4 into Q1 very much to more normal pattern of how the sequential performance is going. And so I would say that's piece #1.

因此，我們看到從第四季度到第一季度的表現非常正常，順序表現如何。所以我會說這是第一部分。

In terms of the sort of the longer term, when I think -- when you think about that sort of like 2030 goal, et cetera, we continue to be in a period between post-COVID inflation and everything else that's going on in the world right now. That just makes it hard to exactly understand how the consumer is going to perform. And so I just think we're trying to be thoughtful and measured there.

就長期而言，當我認為 - 當您考慮類似 2030 年的目標等時，我們將繼續處於 COVID 後通脹和世界上正在發生的所有其他事情之間的時期現在。這只會讓我們很難準確理解消費者的表現。所以我只是認為我們正試圖在那裡深思熟慮和衡量。

I will say, though, that to your point, if we're running in the high teens CAGR on 2019 basis, we're pretty close to where we think -- what you would need to believe in order to get to the long term, and that's in the sort of really murky sort of tough environment. Maybe I'll pass it over to Niraj if we solved the tech problem.

不過，我會說，就你的觀點而言，如果我們在 2019 年的基礎上以青少年復合年增長率運行，我們非常接近我們的想法——為了實現長期目標，你需要相信什麼，那是在那種非常陰暗的艱難環境中。如果我們解決了技術問題，也許我會把它交給 Niraj。

Can you guys hear me now?

你們現在能聽到我的聲音嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Okay. Great. I'm not sure what the issue was it. I think, Peter, one of the things -- and I've missed part of Michael's answer because of these technical problems. But basically, I think the macro is setting a lot of what the current growth rate is in some degree because of what traffic is there and what the channel mix on the traffic is.

好的。偉大的。我不確定是什麼問題。我認為，彼得，其中一件事 - 由於這些技術問題，我錯過了邁克爾的部分答案。但基本上，我認為宏觀在某種程度上決定了當前的增長率，因為那裡的流量和流量的渠道組合是什麼。

When you talk about some of the improvements you're seeing, what I will say is that on one hand, to see continued gains in growth rate when you look at how it's going to play out sequentially, you obviously need the macro to get back to kind of a stable place, which we think is headed there.

當你談到你所看到的一些改進時，我要說的是，一方面，當你看到增長將如何連續發揮作用時，要看到增長率的持續增長，你顯然需要宏觀來恢復到某種穩定的地方，我們認為它會去那裡。

But frankly, there's a lot we are working on as well that are very specific to things we are doing that drive the business forward. One is when you think about suppliers forward positioning goods through the CastleGate network, which drives up the speed badging on the site, it also drives lower retail prices because a lot of the last mile transportation cost comes out, which is the most expensive transportation leg. That's a pretty big driver of conversion. That tips in new customers drives the repeat flywheel.

但坦率地說，我們也在做很多工作，這些工作非常具體到我們正在做的推動業務發展的事情上。一個是當您考慮供應商通過 CastleGate 網絡提前定位貨物時，這會提高網站上的速度標記，它也會降低零售價格，因為很多最後一英里的運輸成本都出來了，這是最昂貴的運輸環節.這是轉換的一個很大的驅動力。新客戶的提示推動了重複飛輪。

We're seeing that will progress nicely this year. And we have kind of a leading indicator on that because as you're aware, on ocean freight, our forwarding business has grown in scale. That ocean year is mid -- runs midyear, so May through April year. And as we talk to suppliers about what capacity they want, what we've seen is that the interest to flow goods in the network is very high. And we have a lot of flow plans that show that, that will be playing out.

我們看到這將在今年取得很好的進展。我們有一個領先的指標，因為正如你所知，在海運方面，我們的貨運業務規模不斷擴大。那個海洋年是年中——年中，所以五月到四月。當我們與供應商討論他們想要什麼容量時，我們看到的是，在網絡中流通貨物的興趣非常高。我們有很多流程計劃表明，這將會發揮作用。

And then there's a lot of other things that we don't always talk about, but we've been investing in new classes. And so as an example, large appliances is a category that is really a small number of players operate it in somewhat of an oligopoly manner, and there's a huge opportunity to do a great job there with storytelling, helping customers find the right products. There's lot of technical complexity, delivery and logistics matters, service matters. And we're having great progress there.

還有很多其他的事情我們並不總是談論，但我們一直在投資新課程。舉個例子，大型電器是一個真正由少數玩家以某種寡頭壟斷方式經營的品類，並且有很大的機會在講故事方面做得很好，幫助客戶找到合適的產品。有很多技術複雜性、交付和物流問題、服務問題。我們在這方面取得了很大進展。

The red carpet merchandising with the flagship brands, those are really progressing very nicely, increasingly exclusive, increasingly taking share in our business.

與旗艦品牌一起進行的紅地毯銷售，確實進展得非常好，越來越獨特，越來越多地在我們的業務中佔有一席之地。

Vertical focus of the B2B business, B2B business is a couple of billion dollar business. Well, as we've grown it, obviously, the account managers, what we've done with customers has worked very well. We've increased the offering. But now the vertical experiences that we're building out is a nice accelerant.

B2B業務的垂直重點，B2B業務是數十億美元的業務。好吧，隨著我們的發展，顯然，客戶經理，我們對客戶所做的工作非常有效。我們增加了產品。但現在我們正在構建的垂直體驗是一個很好的促進劑。

Perigold in the luxury space, we're still a small player there. That's growing quite nicely. There's a huge amount of headway there. The goods that we carry there from the few hundred brands that typically were only available through the designers and the interior design trade channels is really an incredible selection of goods, bringing those direct to customers and making them available online with the customization that's there with the breadth of selection that's there.

Perigold 在奢侈品領域，我們仍然是一個小玩家。這是相當不錯的增長。那裡有很大的進展。我們從幾百個品牌那裡攜帶的商品通常只能通過設計師和室內設計貿易渠道獲得，這些商品確實是一個令人難以置信的商品選擇，將這些商品直接帶給客戶，並通過定制化的方式在線提供那裡有廣泛的選擇。

So I'm going to stop rambling, but there's a lot of things that will continue to drive up the growth rate specific to us outside of the macro and then the macro, we think, will also help.

所以我要停止漫談，但是有很多事情會繼續推動宏觀之外的特定於我們的增長率，然後我們認為宏觀也會有所幫助。

Okay. That's helpful. And maybe I'll just pivot to margin. Specifically, I would ask about CastleGate, which we think has a notable competitive advantage, yet the dollar volume through CastleGate has come down on a 2-year basis.

好的。這很有幫助。也許我會轉向保證金。具體來說，我會詢問 CastleGate，我們認為它具有顯著的競爭優勢，但通過 CastleGate 的美元交易量已連續兩年下降。

Niraj, you talked about providing some financial and operational incentives to suppliers. So in doing so, will that provide some margin dilution in the near term in order to get suppliers to commit more inventory?

Niraj，您談到了向供應商提供一些財務和運營激勵措施。因此，這樣做是否會在短期內提供一些利潤稀釋，以使供應商投入更多庫存？

Here's the way to think about that. So the way we historically approached it with suppliers is it was very clinical and it was very technically correct, but it was complicated, which is by that, what do I mean? Well, the ocean freight cost x the drayage cost, why? The brokerage fee is this, the cargo insurance is that, the induction charge depending on the location is this, the consolidation fees are that.

這是思考的方法。所以我們過去與供應商接觸的方式是非常臨床的，在技術上非常正確，但它很複雜，也就是說，我的意思是什麼？好吧，海運成本 x 拖運成本，為什麼？中介費是這個，貨物保險是那個，誘導費是這個，拼箱費是那個。

So it was very complicated to understand your costing. What we did is we basically simplified it. We said, "Hey, look. Move the goods into CastleGate upstream. Induct them into our consolidation operation. Here's what you're going to pay," and they think of it as covering that ocean freight drayage, that inbound cost that they would have otherwise paid someone else.

所以理解你的成本是非常複雜的。我們所做的是我們基本上簡化了它。我們說：“嘿，看。將貨物移到上游的 CastleGate。將它們引入我們的整合操作。這就是你要支付的費用，”他們認為這包括了海運的拖車費用，他們會支付的入站費用以其他方式支付給他人。

And in today's world, it's even hard to access it, even if you're willing to pay, and the rates that we offer are still pretty compelling. So that's a very easy ask. And what we've done is we bundled in to one kind of price the different fees to make it easy for them to understand what the opportunity is. But what we're doing is we're managing it on a total cost of ownership basis because there's charges that suppliers never pay that we paid, like the outbound shipping.

在當今世界，即使您願意付費，也很難獲得它，而且我們提供的費率仍然非常有吸引力。所以這是一個非常容易的問題。我們所做的是我們將不同的費用捆綁到一種價格中，以使他們更容易理解機會是什麼。但是我們正在做的是我們在總擁有成本的基礎上對其進行管理，因為供應商從未支付過我們支付的費用，例如出境運輸。

And so what we do is we look at the total cost. We manage the complexity. The suppliers are paying us for the logistic services, but in a simple manner. And by bundling it this way, we're actually making it a lot easier for suppliers to lean in, but not in a way that's margin dilutive.

所以我們要做的是查看總成本。我們管理複雜性。供應商向我們支付物流服務費用，但方式很簡單。通過這種方式捆綁，我們實際上讓供應商更容易參與進來，但不會以一種稀釋利潤的方式。

What we're doing is we're basically making sure that the end-to-end benefits and the end-to-end costs are reflected versus what we're getting, and that's suppliers basically paying us, as I mentioned, for the logistics cost. And obviously, we then are taking some of our own costs out. So don't think of it as being margin dilutive more than trying to simplify the offering.

我們正在做的是，我們基本上確保端到端的收益和端到端的成本與我們得到的相比得到反映，正如我提到的，供應商基本上向我們支付了物流成本。顯然，我們隨後會扣除一些我們自己的成本。所以不要認為它比試圖簡化產品更能稀釋利潤。

Your next question comes from the line of Brian Nagel from Oppenheimer & Co.

您的下一個問題來自 Oppenheimer & Co. 的 Brian Nagel。

So a couple of questions, I'm going to merge them together. But in the prepared comments, you talked about just the shifting backdrop. Post COVID, consumers going back. I think there as you may have made the comment going back to their pre-pandemic ways, I mean, to a certain extent, shopping more on physical stores.

所以有幾個問題，我要把它們合併在一起。但在準備好的評論中，你只談到了不斷變化的背景。發布COVID，消費者回去。我認為您可能已經將評論追溯到他們大流行前的方式，我的意思是，在一定程度上，更多地在實體店購物。

So the questions I have, as you look at the Wayfair model and all the tools at your disposal, are there levers you could -- you are pulling or you could pull here in the nearer term, but sort of to say, you drive even better recognition on the part of the consumer as this potential normalization is happening?

因此，當您查看 Wayfair 模型和您可以使用的所有工具時，我的問題是，您是否可以使用槓桿——您正在拉動，或者您可以在短期內拉動這裡，但可以說，您甚至可以駕駛隨著這種潛在的正常化正在發生，消費者是否能更好地識別？

And then second, we talked in time to time about Wayfair testing physical stores. I know that within the context of the Wayfair business model is that still a very, very small item. But is that -- are you looking more at that now? And is there something more underway as you see consumers once again gravitating towards some type of physical presence?

其次，我們不時談論 Wayfair 測試實體店的事情。我知道在 Wayfair 商業模式的背景下，這仍然是一個非常非常小的項目。但那是 - 你現在看更多了嗎？當你看到消費者再次傾向於某種類型的實體存在時，是否還有更多的事情正在進行？

Yes. Sure. Thanks, Brian. So on your first question, when you talk about customers sort of reverting to pre-pandemic behavior and -- we think of it as a pendulum. Beginning of COVID, it swung very, very strongly to online. And on our way out of COVID, it's swinging the other way. We think it's now coming back towards the middle.

是的。當然。謝謝，布賴恩。因此，在您的第一個問題上，當您談論客戶恢復到大流行前的行為時，我們將其視為鍾擺。 COVID 開始時，它非常非常強烈地轉向在線。在我們擺脫 COVID 的路上，它正在向另一個方向發展。我們認為它現在正在回到中間。

I don't know that there are levers we can pull specifically that move it back to the middle any quicker. But I will just remind you, in our business, over 75% of the business is repeat. So we have a very large base of customers. They made 4 billion visits last year. They're very engaged. We have a direct way to communicate with them, whether that's e-mail or through the app. They're very interested in what we're doing. And so we are able to drive our business. Obviously, the pendulum getting back to the middle is very helpful as well.

我不知道我們可以專門拉動哪些槓桿來更快地將其移回中間。但我只想提醒你，在我們的業務中，超過 75% 的業務是重複的。因此，我們擁有非常龐大的客戶群。他們去年進行了 40 億次訪問。他們非常投入。我們有直接的方式與他們溝通，無論是電子郵件還是通過應用程序。他們對我們正在做的事情非常感興趣。因此，我們能夠推動我們的業務。顯然，鐘擺回到中間也很有幫助。

And we have different segments. The B2B business at Perigold, those are growing quite nicely. The Wayfair business is a mass business. It's doing well. It's resilient. It's going to be more affected by this pendulum swing than the high end right now with some of what you're seeing with inflation and the like. But it's doing pretty well. And Wayfair.com is down mid-single digits in Q4. So we're seeing momentum building there.

我們有不同的細分市場。 Perigold 的 B2B 業務發展良好。 Wayfair 業務是一項大眾業務。它做得很好。它有彈性。它會比現在的高端受到這種鐘擺擺動的影響更大，因為你在通貨膨脹等方面看到了一些東西。但它做得很好。 Wayfair.com 在第四季度下降了中個位數。因此，我們看到那裡的勢頭正在增強。

The specialty retail brands, we are moving those to very tightly curated catalogs. We're seeing really nice progress where we've finished that curation. That curation, though, obviously, in a time where availability is low and where, frankly, you're taking out some well-performing SKUs to really get to a tighter assortment that's all specialty quality, the comp is very negative, but that's part of the plan because we're nearing the end of the repositioning where then you'll see really fast growth.

專業零售品牌，我們正在將它們轉移到精心策劃的目錄中。我們在完成策展的地方看到了非常好的進展。但是，顯然，在可用性低的時代，坦率地說，您正在淘汰一些表現良好的 SKU 以真正獲得更緊密的分類，這些產品都是專業品質的，這種策劃是非常負面的，但這是一部分計劃，因為我們即將結束重新定位，屆時您將看到真正快速的增長。

And then the international geographies, that same pendulum swinging. So you have a mixed set of things that are kind of buffering it around. And so I don't know if there are levers we could do to kind of get to the end faster. I would just say we're -- I think we're headed there anyways fairly quickly.

然後是國際地理，同樣的鐘擺擺動。所以你有一組混合的東西可以緩衝它。所以我不知道我們是否可以採取一些措施來更快地到達終點。我只想說我們 - 我認為我們很快就會到達那裡。

And you talked about physical stores. I just want to highlight, on physical stores, this is something we've been working on for years. So the pandemic really does not have a role to play in how we think about that. About 5 years ago, we tested pop-ups for a couple of years. Then we had a 5,000 square foot store in the Natick Mall outside of Boston, and we really saw a very good performance there, and we learned a lot from that.

你談到了實體店。我只想強調，在實體店，這是我們多年來一直在努力的事情。因此，大流行在我們對此的看法方面確實沒有發揮作用。大約 5 年前，我們對彈出窗口進行了幾年的測試。然後我們在波士頓郊外的 Natick Mall 開了一家 5000 平方英尺的商店，我們真的在那裡看到了非常好的表現，我們從中學到了很多東西。

We then decided to embark on an effort to really build what we think were the optimal stores for each of our concepts. And so to that end, we've got some of the stores opening for our specialty retail brands this year. We have a much larger format we're excited about for Wayfair that will open up next year.

然後，我們決定著手真正建立我們認為適合我們每個概念的最佳商店。為此，我們今年為我們的專業零售品牌開設了一些商店。我們對將於明年開放的 Wayfair 感到興奮。

But the work for that started 1.5 years ago, started a long time ago. And so the way to think about that is this is just the next step in creating an omnichannel experience that takes advantage of everything we have.

但這項工作始於 1.5 年前，很久以前就開始了。因此，考慮這一點的方式是，這只是創建利用我們擁有的一切的全渠道體驗的下一步。

We have a distribution network. We have a delivery network that can deliver goods very quickly. We have a great offering. We have the inventory for that sitting in the supply chain. We've got a very large customer list that we can communicate with. So if you think about building a physical stores network, we basically have everything you need other than the stores themselves.

我們有一個分銷網絡。我們有一個交貨網絡，可以非常快速地交貨。我們有很棒的產品。我們有供應鏈中的庫存。我們有一個非常大的客戶名單，我們可以與之交流。因此，如果您考慮建立實體店網絡，除了商店本身之外，我們基本上擁有您需要的一切。

So as we build the stores, it's just another way to engage with our customers. Some of the things we provide, whether it be design services or just customers having a tactile experience with products or some were more complex categories, it's just a great thing to add as another way customers can engage with us.

因此，當我們建立商店時，這只是與客戶互動的另一種方式。我們提供的一些東西，無論是設計服務，還是只是客戶對產品有觸覺體驗，或者一些是更複雜的類別，作為客戶與我們互動的另一種方式，這是一件很棒的事情。

And so we're pretty excited about how it will play out. It's just -- it will be something kind of like our logistics network. It can be a big deal, but it plays out slowly over time because there's time to open them and then optimize them before you really build more. But it's another exciting thing we have underway in addition to lots of other things, as I mentioned earlier. So we're excited about where we're headed.

因此，我們對它將如何發揮作用感到非常興奮。只是——它有點像我們的物流網絡。這可能很重要，但隨著時間的推移它會慢慢發揮作用，因為有時間打開它們，然後在你真正構建更多之前優化它們。但正如我之前提到的，除了許多其他事情之外，這是我們正在進行的另一件令人興奮的事情。因此，我們對前進的方向感到興奮。

Our next question comes from the line of John Blackledge from Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自 Cowen 的 John Blackledge。

Two questions. First, on the competitive environment. Aside from the lingering COVID comps, could you discuss the current competitive landscape? And as we hopefully emerge from the pandemic, do you think that competitors have gained some ground over the past few years on Wayfair?

兩個問題。首先，關於競爭環境。除了揮之不去的新冠疫情之外，您能否討論一下當前的競爭格局？隨著我們有望擺脫大流行，您認為競爭對手在過去幾年中在 Wayfair 上取得了一些進展嗎？

And then second, on the -- on CastleGate, Michael mentioned that Wayfair will add 2 more CastleGate facilities in the U.S. in 2022. Could you just discuss timing of opening and where those facilities are?

其次，在 CastleGate 上，Michael 提到 Wayfair 將在 2022 年在美國再增加 2 個 CastleGate 設施。你能談談開放時間和這些設施在哪裡嗎？

Yes. Sure, John. Thanks for the questions. On the competitive front, what I would say is, I think during the last couple of years, we've been able to even more firmly advance our position as the leader in home. And I think kind of customers have known us for that. We've built a household brand going into the pandemic. We already had it there. But I would say that it's all that's happened during the time period has accelerated it.

是的。當然，約翰。感謝您的提問。在競爭方面，我想說的是，我認為在過去的幾年裡，我們已經能夠更加堅定地推進我們作為國內領先者的地位。我認為有些客戶因此而認識我們。我們已經建立了一個應對大流行的家喻戶曉的品牌。我們已經在那裡了。但我想說的是，這段時間發生的一切都加速了它。

The other thing that I think has happened is it's become very clear the role that logistics plays in providing an optimal e-commerce experience. And what you hear companies talk about advanced logistics, the only companies that you really hear talk about it a lot are Walmart, Target, Home Depot, Amazon and us.

我認為發生的另一件事是，物流在提供最佳電子商務體驗方面的作用變得非常清楚。你聽到的公司談論先進的物流，你真正聽到的談論它的公司只有沃爾瑪、塔吉特、家得寶、亞馬遜和我們。

And I think that, that's kind of a key point because without advanced logistics, it's very hard to provide that optimal experience. And frankly, it's very hard to control one of the major cost inputs.

我認為這是一個關鍵點，因為沒有先進的物流，很難提供最佳體驗。坦率地說，控制主要成本投入之一非常困難。

And so I think when you start talking about customer expectations to kind of one-day delivery, same-day delivery at competitive costs with great reverse logistics and a great experience, convenient scheduled delivery and, in our case, you're talking about a lot of 2-person deliveries and assembly and putting things in the backyard or putting them in a bedroom or what have you, that matters a lot.

因此，我認為當您開始談論客戶對一日交付的期望時，以具有競爭力的成本的當日交付，出色的逆向物流和豐富的體驗，方便的預定交付，在我們的例子中，您談論的是很多 2 人交付和組裝，把東西放在後院或放在臥室或你有的東西里，這很重要。

So I would say competitively, we feel very good about where we are. And we think actually the -- as the results play out, you're going to see that our ability to kind of keep being an outsized winner in the category is going to be very strong.

所以我會說在競爭中，我們對我們所處的位置感覺非常好。而且我們認為實際上 - 隨著結果的出現，你會看到我們在該類別中保持成為超大贏家的能力將會非常強大。

On your CastleGate question about the 2 fulfillment centers, the answer on locations, one is in Baltimore or just outside of these cities, I guess. One is just outside of Baltimore and one is just outside of Chicago. And the one in Baltimore has just recently opened. And the one in Chicago will open later in the year. So I think that was sort of the specific question, John.

關於您關於 2 個履行中心的 CastleGate 問題，關於位置的答案，我猜一個在巴爾的摩或就在這些城市之外。一個就在巴爾的摩郊外，一個就在芝加哥郊外。巴爾的摩的那家最近剛剛開業。芝加哥的那個將在今年晚些時候開放。所以我認為這是一個具體的問題，約翰。

And then the thing you didn't ask, but I just want to comment on this, where we are in the development and evolution of building out the CastleGate fulfillment center footprint is that, at this point, we do not need to build it out for locations. So we're building it out at this point for capacity. So we're -- we have an estimate of how much capacity we need, and we're building them out in order to handle that capacity.

然後你沒有問的事情，但我只是想對此發表評論，我們在建設 CastleGate 履行中心足蹟的發展和演變中是，在這一點上，我們不需要建立它對於位置。所以我們現在正在建設它以提高容量。所以我們 - 我們估計了我們需要多少容量，我們正在建設它們以處理這種容量。

So one of the things that will play out over time is you should see the amount of percentage utilization on our network should actually grow, despite the fact that we're going to open more facilities over time.

因此，隨著時間的推移會發生的一件事是，儘管我們將隨著時間的推移開放更多設施，但您應該看到我們網絡上的百分比利用率實際上應該增長。

Yes. Just let me add on that point, Niraj. The one thing I don't think we've sort of said clearly is we do expect to have increasing penetration of goods flowing through our CastleGate network. So we're opening incremental warehouses because of the volume that is flowing Niraj mentioned.

是的。讓我補充一點，Niraj。我認為我們沒有說清楚的一件事是，我們確實希望通過我們的 CastleGate 網絡流動的商品滲透率越來越高。因此，由於 Niraj 提到的流動量，我們正在開設增量倉庫。

We have forward visibility on that with ocean freight. And so obviously, as we run more -- as CastleGate penetration grows, we run more through that part of what gives us the confidence in our 27% to 28% gross margin targets over time and sort of how we're building the business going forward.

我們對海運有前瞻性的認識。很明顯，隨著我們跑得更多——隨著 CastleGate 滲透率的增長，我們跑得更多，這讓我們對隨著時間的推移對 27% 到 28% 的毛利率目標充滿信心，以及我們如何建立業務向前。

Your next question comes from the line of Steven Forbes from Guggenheim.

您的下一個問題來自古根海姆的 Steven Forbes。

Niraj, you mentioned Wayfair.com, I think, was down mid-single digits in the fourth quarter. So can you provide more specific color on Wayfair.com during, I guess, quarter-to-date in the first quarter and then just provide sort of specifics on when the business will cycle the catalog changes within the specialty banners?

Niraj，你提到 Wayfair.com，我認為，在第四季度下降了中個位數。那麼，您能否在第一季度的季度至今在 Wayfair.com 上提供更具體的顏色，然後僅提供有關業務何時會在專業橫幅中循環目錄更改的詳細信息？

Sure, Steven. Let me try to add a little color. So kind of what I described B2B and Perigold growing nicely, Wayfair.com doing better than the total and then the drags being international and SRBs, those statements are still true in the first quarter. So I don't want to provide exact specific numbers for each of those, but those are -- those statements are all true.

當然，史蒂文。讓我嘗試添加一點顏色。我所描述的 B2B 和 Perigold 發展良好，Wayfair.com 的表現比總體好，然後是國際和 SRB 的拖累，這些陳述在第一季度仍然正確。因此，我不想為每個人提供確切的具體數字，但那些是——這些陳述都是正確的。

And the SRBs, they're a relatively small share of the total business, but because of the repositioning and the changes we're making, they're down substantially. But what will happen is as you get into the back half of this year, you're actually going to see that flip. And then as they grow, you'll see them actually be comping up very possibly.

而 SRB，它們在整個業務中所佔的份額相對較小，但由於重新定位和我們正在進行的改變，它們大幅下降。但將會發生的事情是，當你進入今年下半年時，你實際上會看到這種反轉。然後隨著他們的成長，你會看到他們實際上很有可能在競爭。

That's one of the things that makes comps right now really difficult is actually the shape of the year last year where you have COVID tailwinds in the first half and you have normalization happening in the second half, they make the comps this year look unusual.

這就是現在讓比賽變得非常困難的原因之一，實際上是去年上半年的情況，你在上半年遇到了 COVID 順風，而在下半年發生了正常化，它們使今年的比賽看起來不尋常。

And I think Michael has said, hey, if you roll forward just a normal seasonal pattern, don't even account for all of the things that we're specifically doing that should drive outsized performance, you actually get to a very nice positive comps in the second half of this year.

而且我認為邁克爾說過，嘿，如果你只是向前推進一個正常的季節性模式，甚至不考慮我們專門做的所有應該推動超常表現的事情，你實際上會得到一個非常好的積極組合今年下半年。

And so one of the things that you have when you talk about the first quarter is, you're anniversary-ing these steep COVID comps from last year two rounds of stimulus, et cetera, but we're not that many months away from where that all is behind us.

因此，當您談論第一季度時，您所擁有的一件事是，您正在紀念去年的兩輪刺激措施等這些陡峭的 COVID 組合，但我們離哪裡還有幾個月的時間這一切都在我們身後。

And then just a follow-up. As you think about inflationary pressures and inflation challenges among your customer cohort groups and so forth, any sort of color on how you're sort of thinking about managing and mitigating these inflationary pressures? Are you seeing price elasticity demand coming back into any of the categories? Or how are you sort of planning for the challenges that may come along with inflationary pressures?

然後只是跟進。當您考慮客戶群體中的通貨膨脹壓力和通貨膨脹挑戰等時，您對管理和減輕這些通貨膨脹壓力的看法有什麼不同嗎？您是否看到價格彈性需求重新回到任何類別？或者您如何規劃可能伴隨通脹壓力而來的挑戰？

Yes, that's a great question. So what has happened so far is the inflation has been acute enough. The magnitude large enough that suppliers have passed it on to us, and we in turn have passed it on to customers. You would expect inflation of that magnitude to demand to some degree.

是的，這是一個很好的問題。所以到目前為止發生的事情是通貨膨脹已經足夠嚴重了。規模足夠大，供應商已將其傳遞給我們，而我們又將其傳遞給客戶。你會預期這種程度的通貨膨脹會在一定程度上產生需求。

To be honest, we have not seen that happen. Conversion has held up. And so what do we think is driving that? The only thing we can come up with is, like in America, for example, if you look at it, folks have $2 trillion more in their savings accounts now than they did pre-pandemic. So that's a sheer amount of money, we believe, is causing this amount of inflation to be digestible.

老實說，我們還沒有看到這種情況發生。轉換一直保持。那麼我們認為是什麼推動了這一點？我們唯一能想到的是，例如在美國，如果你看一下，人們現在的儲蓄賬戶比大流行前多出 2 萬億美元。因此，我們認為，這筆巨額資金正在導致這種通貨膨脹是可以消化的。

When we look out in the future, and one of the things we have on our platform is we do have the benefit of having a lot of different suppliers. And so there is a competitive tension between them. So they're not looking to take advantage of the inflation. In fact, they're loaded to pass it through. They don't want to lose their position.

當我們展望未來時，我們在平台上擁有的一件事是我們確實受益於擁有許多不同的供應商。因此，他們之間存在競爭壓力。所以他們不打算利用通貨膨脹。事實上，他們已經加載通過它。他們不想失去自己的位置。

When we start thinking about how this will play out over time, I think we're in an advantaged position relative to some. We've talked a lot about ocean freight and the opportunity there. Not only can we reliably move goods at a competitive cost, but, frankly, we take out a lot of other expense. We talked about that last month, transportation leg. And so that actually drives lower retail.

當我們開始考慮隨著時間的推移這將如何發展時，我認為我們相對於某些人處於優勢地位。我們已經談了很多關於海運和那裡的機會。我們不僅可以以具有競爭力的成本可靠地運送貨物，而且坦率地說，我們還花費了很多其他費用。上個月我們談到了運輸腿。因此，這實際上推動了較低的零售額。

So that's going to be an advantage we're going to be able to pass through to customers. And as we talked about a few times, we expect the CastleGate penetration to ramp nicely through this year. We have some forward visibility on that, and that's going to actually be a nice boon for customers when you talk about fighting inflation. So we think that's pretty exciting.

因此，這將成為我們能夠傳遞給客戶的優勢。正如我們多次談到的那樣，我們預計今年 CastleGate 的滲透率會很好。我們對此有一些前瞻性的認識，當您談論對抗通貨膨脹時，這實際上對客戶來說是一個很好的福音。所以我們認為這非常令人興奮。

And then the last thing I would just say, which is not specific to inflation, but on this call for years, we talked a lot about, and we did this back when our gross margin was in the 24% to 25% range. Those 4 pillars that could unlock a lot of gross margin benefits, and we talked about 1,000-plus basis point runway from that 24% to 25%, and the 4 big pillars, 1 was logistics savings and other was basically wholesale economics as suppliers benefit from volume. The third was merchandising gains that we can make with our red carpet merchandising and the flagship brands. And the fourth was growing our supplier services, which is the logistics services and the advertising, the merchandising services that we sell to suppliers.

然後我要說的最後一件事，不是針對通貨膨脹，但在多年來的電話會議上，我們談了很多，當我們的毛利率在 24% 到 25% 的範圍內時，我們就這樣做了。這 4 大支柱可以釋放大量毛利率收益，我們談到了從 24% 到 25% 的 1000 多個基點跑道，而 4 大支柱，1 是物流節約，其他基本上是批發經濟，因為供應商受益從體積。第三是我們可以通過紅地毯銷售和旗艦品牌獲得的銷售收益。第四是發展我們的供應商服務，即物流服務和廣告，以及我們向供應商銷售的商品服務。

Well, there's still a long runway on those things ahead of us as well. And what we said is, as we unlock those gross margin gains, our plan is to keep some. So you see gross margin rise and give some back. And what gives some back means is that customers would see lower prices or we would offer value-added services included. And so that's the other thing that's going to play out over time, and we're seeing good momentum on that as well.

好吧，在我們面前還有很長的路要走。我們所說的是，當我們釋放這些毛利率收益時，我們的計劃是保留一些。所以你看到毛利率上升並回饋一些。回饋意味著客戶會看到更低的價格，或者我們會提供包括在內的增值服務。因此，隨著時間的推移，另一件事將會發揮作用，我們也看到了良好的勢頭。

Your next question comes from the line of Anna Andreeva from Needham.

您的下一個問題來自 Needham 的 Anna Andreeva。

We have two quick questions. So the number of active customers took a pretty big step down in the fourth quarter. How do you think about new customer growth in '22? And what are you seeing from your 2020 cohorts in terms of retention and buying behavior?

我們有兩個簡單的問題。因此，活躍客戶的數量在第四季度大幅下降。您如何看待 22 年的新客戶增長？您從 2020 年的同類群組中看到的留存率和購買行為如何？

And as a follow-up on gross margins, you mentioned the low end of the 27%, 28% range appropriate for the first quarter. What's implied for gross margin and your guidance for the year for the adjusted EBITDA slightly profitable?

作為毛利率的後續行動，您提到了適合第一季度的 27%、28% 範圍的低端。毛利率意味著什麼？您對調整後 EBITDA 的年度指導是微利的？

Great. Let me start -- Anna, thanks for the question. Let me start with answers and then maybe I'll let Michael jump in with any additional thoughts yet.

偉大的。讓我開始 -- Anna，謝謝你的提問。讓我從答案開始，然後也許我會讓邁克爾加入任何其他想法。

On the active customer count, I just want to clarify that the active customer count would be any customers who have placed an order within the last 12 months. So when we talk about the 4 billion visits, they're coming from a large, large number of customers that's in excess of the active customer number. But if they haven't made a purchase in that period, they drop out of that number. even if they're very engaged.

關於活躍客戶數量，我只想澄清一下，活躍客戶數量是指在過去 12 個月內下訂單的任何客戶。因此，當我們談到 40 億次訪問時，它們來自大量超過活躍客戶數量的客戶。但如果他們在那段時間沒有購買，他們就會退出這個數字。即使他們非常投入。

And so the active customer number, you're still seeing the normalization happening from the peak of COVID. So that 27 million number, what you're noting is it's down from 29 million in the quarter before. I'll just remind you, in Q1 of 2020, as we entered COVID, we had 21 million. So it's up 30%. It's up 6 million from then.

因此，從活躍客戶數量來看，您仍然可以看到從 COVID 高峰期發生的正常化。所以這個 2700 萬的數字，你注意到的是它比上一季度的 2900 萬有所下降。我只想提醒你，在 2020 年第一季度，當我們進入 COVID 時，我們有 2100 萬。所以漲了30%。從那時起它增加了600萬。

And then again, the number that are engaged is a far larger number. That's the number that made the 4 billion visits in total. So we feel pretty good about the trajectory.

再說一次，參與的人數要大得多。這就是總訪問量達到 40 億的數字。所以我們對軌跡感覺很好。

The next thing I would just say is when you talk about growing the active customer count, that customer count, there's far more customers to get than we have already, and we know that. We do survey work regularly to understand their awareness of us and their preference for us.

我要說的下一件事是，當您談到增加活躍客戶數量時，客戶數量比我們已經擁有的要多得多，我們知道這一點。我們定期進行調查工作，以了解他們對我們的認識以及他們對我們的偏好。

And one of the things that the annual shareholder letter, which we just released today as well, if you read that, one of the things I just talked about is the awareness amongst people who purchase from us, and then that resulting in their likelihood to come back is incredibly high. The -- that awareness from those who don't -- have not yet purchased from us is very, very different.

我們今天剛剛發布的年度股東信中的一件事，如果你讀到了，我剛才談到的一件事是從我們這裡購買的人的意識，然後這導致他們有可能回來是難以置信的高。那些沒有從我們這裡購買的人的意識是非常非常不同的。

And so in CPG, people talk a lot about trial. There's a new type of cookie. And so pre-COVID, they have someone on the street corner handing out a little sample packages because they want you to try it. Because if you try it, you might decide you like it. If you like it, you'll then go back and buy it over and over again.

所以在 CPG 中，人們經常談論審判。有一種新型餅乾。所以在 COVID 之前，他們會在街角派人分發一些樣品包，因為他們希望您嘗試一下。因為如果你嘗試它，你可能會決定你喜歡它。如果你喜歡它，你會回去一遍又一遍地購買它。

And this is the opportunity we have where as folks try us, so they visit the site, they find something they like, they buy it, they get that item. That really create -- that's the beginning of that flywheel where then they're coming back over and over again. And there's just so much runway on the repeat side. And as you know, repeats over 3 quarters of the business, it's the reason we grow so quickly.

這是我們擁有的機會，因為人們嘗試我們，所以他們訪問該網站，他們找到他們喜歡的東西，他們購買它，他們得到那個物品。那真的創造了——那是飛輪的開始，然後他們一遍又一遍地回來。重複側的跑道太多了。如您所知，重複超過 3 個季度的業務，這就是我們增長如此之快的原因。

So we think there's just a lot of room with all the enhancements we're making that the conversion will keep rising. And as people are visiting the site, as macro traffic grows, we're just going to keep getting new customers. So we don't think that, that is at all risky. We think that just keeps playing out over time.

因此，我們認為我們正在進行的所有增強功能都有很大的空間，轉換率將繼續上升。隨著人們訪問該網站，隨著宏觀流量的增長，我們將不斷獲得新客戶。所以我們不認為那是有風險的。我們認為這只會隨著時間的推移而持續發揮作用。

The second part, which you asked a quick question on about gross margin and the guide for the first quarter, it was the same range we've had for a while, 27% to 28%. And as I highlighted, that rate will go up over time, and that range is up from the 24% to 25% we were at for quite some time.

第二部分，你問了一個關於毛利率和第一季度指南的快速問題，這是我們一段時間以來的相同範圍，27% 到 28%。正如我強調的那樣，這個比率會隨著時間的推移而上升，而且這個範圍從我們在相當長一段時間內的 24% 上升到 25%。

Your question was what is it for the year. I'm going to let Michael field what is it for the year because we generally don't give a lot of discussion. What I will say is what it is over time is it's going to actually keep rising quite nicely. But where we are right now is what we were highlighting, and that has to do with the fact that even though we pass on inflation, what we don't do is pass on transitory costs that we think will correct. And so in times where we absorb some of that for a short period of time, that can hit that number a little bit, which is why this quarter, we sit at the low end of that range.

你的問題是今年的情況。我打算讓邁克爾說出今年的情況，因為我們通常不會進行太多討論。我要說的是，隨著時間的推移，它實際上會繼續很好地上升。但我們現在所處的位置正是我們所強調的，這與這樣一個事實有關，即即使我們轉嫁通貨膨脹，我們不做的是轉嫁我們認為會糾正的暫時性成本。因此，當我們在短時間內吸收其中的一部分時，可能會稍微達到這個數字，這就是為什麼本季度我們處於該範圍的低端。

But Michael, do you want to chime in on the year?

但是邁克爾，你想插話這一年嗎？

Yes, Niraj, And thanks, Anna, for the question. Just to be clear, we only guide to the current quarter, and that's with the 27% to 28% range and the low end of that range, which I think is appropriate. We've already answered that question.

是的，Niraj，謝謝 Anna 的提問。為了清楚起見，我們僅指導當前季度，即 27% 至 28% 的範圍和該範圍的低端，我認為這是合適的。我們已經回答了這個問題。

In terms of as we think about it throughout the year, what we're trying to do is give people some perspective that we're comfortable with the 27% to 28% range throughout this year. I do think as you -- obviously, it's all revenue dependent, right? It's highly tied to sort of what's going to happen on the top line and we've already described, one, that it's murky; but two, that we've got a lot of confidence based on what we've been seeing.

就我們全年的考慮而言，我們試圖做的是讓人們了解我們對今年全年 27% 到 28% 的範圍感到滿意。我確實像您一樣認為-顯然，這完全取決於收入，對嗎？它與頂線將要發生的事情高度相關，我們已經描述過，第一，它是模糊的；但是第二，根據我們所看到的，我們有很大的信心。

But I do think that if that plays out the way we anticipate, I do think we'll be towards the -- we'll work our way towards the upper end of our 27% to 28% range towards the back half of the year, and that's certainly how we think the year will play out. But we're way far away from sort of giving any specific guidance about the year or the long term or anything of that nature.

但我確實認為，如果這按我們預期的方式發揮作用，我確實認為我們將朝著 - 我們將朝著今年下半年的 27% 至 28% 範圍的上限努力，這當然是我們認為這一年將如何結束的方式。但我們離給出關於這一年或長期或任何類似性質的任何具體指導還很遙遠。

And we have reached the end of our question-and-answer session. I turn the call back over to the Wayfair team for some closing remarks.

我們的問答環節已經結束。我將電話轉回給 Wayfair 團隊，以聽取一些結束語。

Well, I just want to just say thank you to everyone for your interest in Wayfair. And we're excited to continue this journey with you, and there's just such a large opportunity. We're excited to be telling you about everything we're doing to tackle it. Thank you very much.

好吧，我只想對大家對 Wayfair 的興趣表示感謝。我們很高興能與您一起繼續這一旅程，而且機會如此之大。我們很高興能告訴您我們為解決這個問題所做的一切。非常感謝你。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。