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Operator
Operator
Good day, and welcome to the NCR Corporation Fourth Quarter Fiscal Year 2022 Earnings Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded.
大家好,歡迎參加 NCR 公司 2022 財年第四季財報電話會議。今天的會議正在錄製中。
At this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to Mr. Michael Nelson, Treasurer and Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.
現在,我想將會議交給財務主管兼投資者關係部邁克爾·尼爾森先生。先生,請繼續。
Michael Gary Nelson - VP of IR & Treasurer
Michael Gary Nelson - VP of IR & Treasurer
Good afternoon, and thank you for joining our fourth quarter and full year 2022 earnings call. Joining me on the call today are Mike Hayford, CEO; Owen Sullivan, President and COO; and Tim Oliver, CFO.
下午好,感謝您參加我們的 2022 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。今天與我一起參加電話會議的還有執行長 Mike Hayford;總裁兼營運長歐文‧沙利文 (Owen Sullivan);以及財務長 Tim Oliver。
Before we get started, let me remind you that our presentation and discussions will include forward-looking statements. These statements reflect our current expectations and beliefs, but they are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expectations. These risks and uncertainties are described in our earnings release and our periodic filings with the SEC, including our annual report.
在我們開始之前,請允許我提醒您,我們的演示和討論將包括前瞻性陳述。這些聲明反映了我們當前的期望和信念,但它們受風險和不確定性的影響,可能導致實際結果與這些期望有重大差異。這些風險和不確定性在我們的收益報告和向美國證券交易委員會提交的定期文件中有所描述,包括我們的年度報告。
On today's call, we will also be discussing certain non-GAAP financial measures. These non-GAAP measures are described and reconciled to their GAAP counterparts in the presentation materials, the press release dated February 7, 2023, and on the Investor Relations page of our website. A replay of this call will be available later today on our website, ncr.com.
在今天的電話會議上,我們還將討論某些非公認會計準則財務指標。這些非 GAAP 指標在簡報資料、2023 年 2 月 7 日的新聞稿以及我們網站的投資者關係頁面上進行了描述,並與 GAAP 指標進行了協調。本次通話的重播將於今天稍晚在我們的網站 ncr.com 上提供。
With that, I would now like to turn the call over to Mike.
說完這些,我現在想把電話轉給麥克。
Michael Dale Hayford - CEO & Director
Michael Dale Hayford - CEO & Director
Thanks, Michael. I will begin with some of my views on the business, and I will also provide an update on our previously announced intention to separate NCR into 2 public companies. Tim will then review our financial performance and provide an outlook for 2023. And then Owen, Tim and I will take your questions.
謝謝,麥可。我將首先介紹我對業務的一些看法,同時也將介紹我們先前宣布的將 NCR 拆分為兩家上市公司的意圖。然後,提姆將回顧我們的財務表現並對 2023 年做出展望。然後,歐文、提姆和我將回答你們的問題。
Let's begin on Slide 4 with some highlights from this past year. We closed out 2022 with strong demand and positive momentum in the business. Maybe a different way to say this is across all 5 of our business segments, our products are winning in the marketplace. We continue to make significant progress against our strategic initiatives to advance our strategy of becoming a software-led as-a-service company with higher recurring revenue streams.
讓我們從幻燈片 4 開始回顧過去一年的一些亮點。 2022 年結束時,我們業務需求強勁,勢頭良好。也許換一種說法就是,在我們所有的 5 個業務部門中,我們的產品都在市場上獲勝。我們繼續在策略性舉措方面取得重大進展,以推進我們的策略,成為一家擁有更高經常性收入來源的軟體主導的即服務公司。
A key part of our strategy is to run the store, run the restaurant and run self-directed banking. It is contingent on our ability to cross-sell and upsell additional services to our clients. To do so, we have a maniacal focus on customer satisfaction, which we measure as Net Promoter Score, or NPS.
我們策略的關鍵部分是經營商店、經營餐廳和經營自主銀行業務。這取決於我們向客戶交叉銷售和追加銷售附加服務的能力。為了實現這一目標,我們高度重視客戶滿意度,並將其作為淨推薦值(NPS)進行衡量。
When we initiated the strategy in 2018, our NPS was 14, which is not very good. Each year, we continue to improve. We went the following year to an 18 on our NPS score, then to a 36, then to a 48. And in 2022, I'm proud to say we improved to 52. So in 4 years, we improved our Net Promoter Score from 14 to 52. That's quite a significant improvement. We now have happy customers, which is a key to executing our strategy and transforming NCR into a software-led as-a-service company.
當我們在 2018 年啟動該策略時,我們的 NPS 為 14,這不是很好。每年我們都在不斷進步。第二年,我們的 NPS 分數上升到 18,然後是 36,再後來是 48。到了 2022 年,我很自豪地說,我們的得分上升到了 52。所以,在 4 年的時間裡,我們的淨推薦值從 14 提高到了 52。這是一個相當顯著的進步。我們現在擁有滿意的客戶,這是執行我們的策略和將 NCR 轉變為以軟體為主導的即服務公司的關鍵。
In 2022, NCR delivered 13% total revenue growth, recurring revenue growth of 20% and adjusted EBITDA growth of 16%, all on a constant currency basis. These are strong results, particularly given the extraordinary macroeconomic and geopolitical challenges that we navigated throughout the year.
2022 年,NCR 的總收入增長了 13%,經常性收入增長了 20%,調整後 EBITDA 增長了 16%,所有這些均按固定匯率計算。這些都是強勁的成果,特別是考慮到我們全年面臨的巨大宏觀經濟和地緣政治挑戰。
Now moving to Slide 5. I thought it would be helpful to put our strong execution in perspective relative to the external macro headwinds we endured. Keep in mind, the headwinds in 2022 were almost all external uncontrollable impacts. Our revenues on a constant currency basis held up very well and our teams did a great job addressing the cost impacts over the last 3 quarters of 2022.
現在轉到投影片 5。我認為,將我們的強勁執行力與我們所經歷的外部宏觀逆風進行比較會很有幫助。請記住,2022 年的逆風幾乎都是外部無法控制的影響。以固定匯率計算,我們的收入保持良好,我們的團隊在 2022 年最後三個季度出色地解決了成本影響問題。
First, we began the year with continued pandemic, this time the Omicron strain. For example, our NCR office is shut down in January and February of last year. Unfortunately, we were not alone. In countries we operate, most businesses were shut down as well, which impacted our transaction volumes.
首先,今年年初我們遭遇了持續的流行病,這次是 Omicron 株。例如,我們的 NCR 辦公室於去年 1 月和 2 月關閉。不幸的是,我們並不孤單。在我們開展業務的國家,大多數企業也關閉了,這影響了我們的交易量。
Second, a war in the Ukraine impacted our business in the region, and we suspended sales in Russia and exited that country.
其次,烏克蘭戰爭影響了我們在該地區的業務,我們暫停了在俄羅斯的銷售並退出了該國。
Third, supply chain disruptions resulted in significantly higher component and transportation costs, which adversely impacted our margins, particularly in the first quarter of 2022. While the supply chain impacts are easing, costs remain elevated. Nonetheless, our engineering and procurement teams have adjusted by designing alternative components and certifying more sources to reduce the impact.
第三,供應鏈中斷導致零件和運輸成本大幅上升,對我們的利潤率產生了不利影響,尤其是在 2022 年第一季。雖然供應鏈的影響正在緩解,但成本仍居高不下。儘管如此,我們的工程和採購團隊已經做出調整,設計替代組件並認證更多來源以減少影響。
Fourth, inflation reached the highest levels in over 40 years. In addition to higher component and transportation costs, fuel costs increased and wage inflation escalated.
四是通膨達到40多年來的最高水準。除了零件和運輸成本上升之外,燃料成本也上漲,薪資通膨也加劇。
And fifth, interest rates accelerated one of the fastest rates in history.
第五,利率上升速度達到史上最快的水平之一。
Finally, in the second half of 2022, foreign exchange rates represented an incremental headwind. For the full year, the stronger U.S. dollar reduced revenue growth by 300 basis points and adjusted EBITDA by 600 basis points. Despite all these external headwinds, NCR executed very well against our strategic initiatives with strong growth across our KPIs.
最後,在 2022 年下半年,外匯匯率呈現逐漸增強的逆風。就全年而言,美元走強導致營收成長減少 300 個基點,調整後 EBITDA 減少 600 個基點。儘管面臨所有這些外部阻力,NCR 仍然出色地執行了我們的戰略計劃,各項 KPI 均實現了強勁增長。
Although some of the headwinds we faced in 2022 are beginning to abate other headwinds like interest and inflation still persist. Looking into 2023, market expectations suggest at least a moderate recession in the U.S. and abroad. In anticipation of potential global slowdown, NCR has taken additional cost actions in the fourth quarter that we are expected to drive incremental savings in 2023.
儘管我們在 2022 年面臨的一些阻力開始減弱,但利息和通貨膨脹等其他阻力仍然存在。展望2023年,市場預期美國及其他國家至少會出現溫和的經濟衰退。由於預期全球經濟可能放緩,NCR 在第四季度採取了額外的成本措施,預計 2023 年將實現增量節省。
Throughout 2022, we had to take many actions to offset these headwinds. Some of those were temporal in nature. Others are permanent cost savings as we head into 2023. During 2022, we were able to reduce our headcount with attrition. Heading into 2023, we needed to reduce our cost even further. The total impact was to reduce our staffing levels by approximately 7%. Tim will provide some more details in his section later.
在整個 2022 年,我們必須採取許多行動來抵消這些不利因素。其中一些是暫時的。其他則是邁入 2023 年後的永久性成本節約。 2022 年期間,我們以自然減員的方式減少了員工人數。進入 2023 年,我們需要進一步降低成本。整體影響是將我們的員工數量減少約 7%。蒂姆稍後會在他的部分提供更多細節。
Now moving to the business update on Slide 6. We have strong momentum across all 5 of our business segments. In retail, we continue to deliver on our strategy to be the retail platform company of choice.
現在轉到投影片 6 上的業務更新。我們的所有 5 個業務部門都發展勢頭強勁。在零售領域,我們繼續履行我們的策略,成為首選的零售平台公司。
The consulting from RBR named NCR the #1 global point-of-sale software vendor for the fifth year in a row. We were also recognized by RBR as the global leader for self-checkout for the 19th consecutive year.
RBR 的諮詢報告連續第五年將 NCR 評為全球第一大銷售點軟體供應商。我們也連續第 19 年被 RBR 評為自助結帳領域的全球領導者。
During the fourth quarter, Love's Travel Stop and Country stores extended its partnership with NCR and is connecting over 3,000 lanes to the NCR Commerce platform to enhance the omni-channel experience to their customers. We continue to have positive momentum in winning upgrade imperative for retail point-of-sale software.
第四季度,Love's Travel Stop and Country 商店擴大了與 NCR 的合作夥伴關係,並將超過 3,000 個通道連接到 NCR Commerce 平台,以增強客戶的全通路體驗。我們在贏得零售銷售點軟體升級需求方面繼續保持積極勢頭。
Quick Trip, a regional convenience store chain with over 800 stores across the Midwest, turn to NCR support their mobile ordering strategy and enhance the customer experience. In self-checkout, we continue to see strong demand across our grocery and big-box retailers as well as the expansion into new verticals such as convenience and fuel in department and specialty retail. Our customers are embracing self-checkout usage to help them mitigate increased labor costs.
Quick Trip 是一家區域性便利商店連鎖店,在美國中西部擁有 800 多家門市,他們尋求 NCR 支援其行動訂購策略並提升客戶體驗。在自助結帳方面,我們繼續看到雜貨店和大型零售商的強勁需求,以及向百貨和專業零售店的便利商店和燃料等新垂直領域的擴張。我們的客戶正在採用自助結帳來幫助他們減輕增加的勞動成本。
In hospitality, we continue to experience strong demand across our enterprise and SMB customers. Chuck E. Cheese, a 20-year customer of NCR, committed to a new 5-year agreement to partner with NCR to deepen integrations through NCR's platform, which enabled Chuck E. Cheese to enhance its ability to serve their customers through digital channels.
在酒店業,我們持續感受到企業和中小企業客戶的強勁需求。 Chuck E. Cheese 是 NCR 的 20 年客戶,該公司承諾簽訂一份新的 5 年協議,與 NCR 合作透過 NCR 平台深化整合,這使 Chuck E. Cheese 能夠增強其透過數位管道服務客戶的能力。
Hot Valley, a 7-year customer of NCR is revamping their kitchen deploying Aloha integrated tablets alongside Aloha Kitchen to improve operational efficiencies in handling online orders.
Hot Valley 是 NCR 的 7 年客戶,目前正在改造其廚房,在 Aloha Kitchen 的同時部署 Aloha 整合式平板電腦,以提高處理線上訂單的營運效率。
We also continue to gain traction with our integrated payments offering for our hospitality customers. In the fourth quarter, Chicken Salad Chick, a 226 site operator shows NCR as its merchant payment processor for all existing and future locations.
我們也持續為飯店客戶提供全面支付服務。第四季度,擁有 226 個站點的營運商 Chicken Salad Chick 將 NCR 列為其所有現有和未來站點的商家支付處理器。
In digital banking, we continue to have positive momentum. In the fourth quarter, digital banking activity was strong with 40 renewals, which represented 1 of the largest renewal quarters in the company's history. During the fourth quarter, we also had 10 new logo deals, which are all competitive wins.
在數位銀行領域,我們繼續保持積極的勢頭。第四季度,數位銀行業務活動強勁,續約數量達 40 筆,是該公司史上續約量最大的季度之一。第四季度,我們還達成了 10 項新標誌交易,這些交易都是競爭性的勝利。
For the full year 2022, it was a strong year for digital banking as we converted 2 large regional banks, Wintrust Bank and Associated Bank, to our digital banking platform. These 2 conversions added almost 1 million new digital banking accounts.
2022 年全年都是數位銀行業務表現強勁的一年,我們將兩家大型區域銀行 Wintrust Bank 和 Associated Bank 轉移到我們的數位銀行平台。這兩次轉換增加了近100萬個新的數位銀行帳戶。
We also had success with NCR's DFB by our digital-first banking solution for retail banking, where we integrate a financial institution retail channels using our CSP or channel services platform. NCR signed 2 of the top 5 banks in the U.S. on our DFB CSP teller platform during 2022.
我們也透過針對零售銀行的數位優先銀行解決方案成功與 NCR 的 DFB 合作,我們使用 CSP 或通路服務平台整合金融機構零售通路。 2022 年,NCR 在我們的 DFB CSP 櫃員平台上與美國前五大銀行中的兩家簽約。
In Payments and Network, we are making progress against both merchant acquiring and the Allpoint network. We are continuing to have success with our integrated payment offering for our hospitality customers, including roughly 90% of our new SMB clients selecting NCR's payment solution.
在支付和網路方面,我們在商家收單和 Allpoint 網路方面都取得了進展。我們為飯店客戶提供的綜合支付服務不斷取得成功,其中約 90% 的新 SMB 客戶選擇了 NCR 的支付解決方案。
The Allpoint network continued its strong growth by delivering transactions to more financial institutions and cardholders than ever before. In the fourth quarter, NCR expanded a long-term agreement with Walgreens, making NCR the exclusive provider of ATM services across the majority of Walgreens stores.
Allpoint 網路持續保持強勁成長,為更多的金融機構和持卡人提供交易服務。第四季度,NCR 擴大了與 Walgreens 的長期協議,使 NCR 成為大多數 Walgreens 門市 ATM 服務的獨家提供者。
In 2022, P&C Bank partnered with the Allpoint network extending surcharge free ATM access to more than 10 million of their customers. We now have over 70 million cards on the Allpoint network. We also extended our Allpoint network with key merchant partners, most notably Circle K, 1 of the largest convenience store brands in the U.S., which activated NCR's Allpoint network on more than 4,400 Circle K stores across 30 states.
2022 年,P&C 銀行與 Allpoint 網路合作,為超過 1,000 萬名客戶提供免附加費 ATM 服務。目前,Allpoint 網路上有超過 7000 萬張卡片。我們還與主要商家合作夥伴擴展了我們的 Allpoint 網絡,其中最著名的是美國最大的便利商店品牌之一 Circle K,它在美國 30 個州的 4,400 多家 Circle K 商店中激活了 NCR 的 Allpoint 網絡。
In self-service banking, we continue the momentum in our ATM as a Service solution. Interest in our offering is accelerating from both community banks and large FIs globally. In the fourth quarter, we signed 10 ATM as a Service deals, including Santander U.K. Santander extended its longstanding partnership with NCR, selecting NCR ATM as a service to transform, connect and run its self-service banking network of more than 1,700 ATMs across the U.K.
在自助銀行服務方面,我們持續大力推行 ATM 即服務解決方案。全球社區銀行和大型金融機構對我們產品的興趣日益濃厚。第四季度,我們簽署了 10 份 ATM 即服務協議,其中包括桑坦德銀行英國分行。桑坦德銀行擴大了與 NCR 的長期合作夥伴關係,選擇 NCR ATM 即服務來改造、連接和運行其遍布英國的 1,700 多台 ATM 的自助銀行網路。
The bank is shifting the operational management of a self-service channel, including software, transaction processing, cash management, ATM monitoring, help desk and hardware maintenance to NCR. During 2022, we signed 46 ATM as a service deals, including Bank of New Zealand and Bank of Baroda, which is 1 of the India's largest retail banks. NCR's ability to provide the scale and capabilities of a full stack integrated ATM as a Service offering when bundled with the Allpoint network has given us a unique solution in the marketplace.
該銀行正在將自助服務管道的營運管理(包括軟體、交易處理、現金管理、ATM 監控、幫助台和硬體維護)轉移到 NCR。 2022 年,我們簽署了 46 項 ATM 服務協議,其中包括紐西蘭銀行和印度最大的零售銀行之一巴羅達銀行。 NCR 與 Allpoint 網路捆綁在一起,能夠提供全端整合 ATM 即服務產品的規模和功能,這為我們提供了市場上獨一無二的解決方案。
And lastly, we are on track to separate NCR into 2 public companies by the end of 2023. Following Tim's comments on our financial results, I will provide an update on the separation activities.
最後,我們預計在 2023 年底前將 NCR 分拆為兩家上市公司。根據 Tim 對我們的財務表現的評論,我將提供有關分拆活動的最新情況。
With that, let me pass it over to Tim.
說完這些,讓我把它交給提姆。
Timothy C. Oliver - CFO & Senior Executive VP
Timothy C. Oliver - CFO & Senior Executive VP
Thanks, Mike, and thanks to all of you for joining us today. As Mike described, our solid fourth quarter completes a year described by a determined effort to drive sequential quarterly improvement after a very difficult start to the year while confronting a litany of external challenges.
謝謝,麥克,也謝謝大家今天的參與。正如麥克所描述的,我們穩健的第四季度為這一年畫上了圓滿的句號,在經歷了年初非常艱難的時期並面臨一系列外部挑戰之後,我們堅定地努力推動季度連續改善。
Last April, during our first quarter 2022 earnings call, we described unexpected impacts from the Omicron COVID wave to the then new war in Russia, extraordinary supply chain costs due to scarcity and modestly higher interest rates that totaled about $75 million of negative impact on Q1 EBITDA.
去年 4 月,在我們 2022 年第一季的收益電話會議上,我們描述了從 Omicron 新冠疫情到當時俄羅斯爆發的新戰爭的意外影響、由於資源稀缺而導致的巨額供應鏈成本以及略高的利率,這些因素總計對第一季度 EBITDA 造成了約 7500 萬美元的負面影響。
At the time, we forecasted that these issues would have an additional $75 million of impact over the remainder of the year for a total of $150 million. That forecast accurately predicted the eventual full year impact of our exit from Russia and the COVID wave, but could not then anticipate worsening supply chain challenges and component availability, historically rapid interest rate increases, a 40-year high inflation and dramatic strengthening of the U.S. dollar.
當時,我們預測這些問題將在今年剩餘時間內產生額外的 7,500 萬美元影響,總計 1.5 億美元。該預測準確地預測了我們退出俄羅斯和新冠疫情對全年的最終影響,但未能預見到供應鏈挑戰和零件供應的惡化、歷史上快速的利率上升、40 年來的高通膨以及美元的急劇走強。
In aggregate, those extrinsic factors eventually impacted EBITDA by almost $500 million. In response, cost productivity and pricing actions that were launched in March were expanded and enhanced to insulate the P&L against further deterioration in macroeconomic factors. And allowed EBITDA margin rates to expand to 19% in the second half of the year, up 450 basis points from the difficult start in Q1.
總的來說,這些外部因素最終對 EBITDA 產生了近 5 億美元的影響。作為回應,3月推出的成本生產力和定價措施得到了擴大和加強,以防止宏觀經濟因素進一步惡化對損益造成影響。並使得EBITDA利潤率在下半年擴大至19%,較第一季的艱難開局上升了450個基點。
Even more impressive than the success of the tactical grind that preserves the P&L through cost control and incremental productivity with our team's ability to simultaneously drive strategic KPIs above our stretch targets. We exited 2022 with significant momentum across our platform and as-a-service offerings.
更令人印象深刻的是,透過成本控制和增量生產力來維持損益的戰術努力的成功,以及我們團隊同時推動策略 KPI 超越我們的延伸目標的能力。 2022 年伊始,我們的平台和即服務產品均呈現強勁發展動能。
I'll start on Slide 7 with a top level overview of our fourth quarter financial performance. As we guided back in October, the fourth quarter reported results were very similar to those in Q3. Starting on the top left. Revenue was $2 billion, down 1% year-over-year as reported and up 2% on a constant currency basis. Recurring revenue was up 3% year-over-year and up 7% when adjusted for FX.
我將從第 7 張投影片開始,對我們第四季的財務表現進行總體概述。正如我們十月所預測的那樣,第四季的報告結果與第三季非常相似。從左上角開始。營收為 20 億美元,以報告計算年減 1%,以固定匯率計算則成長 2%。經常性收入年增 3%,經外匯調整後成長 7%。
We continue to have success transitioning from onetime perpetual sales into multiyear subscription-based revenue streams. The nature of these contracts shifted roughly $83 million of high profit revenue that would previously have been recognized upfront to recurring revenue. The very strong U.S. dollar had an unfavorable impact of $72 million primarily within our retail and self-service banking segments.
我們繼續成功地從一次性永久銷售轉型為多年基於訂閱的收入流。這些合約的性質將先前預先確認的約 8,300 萬美元高利潤收入轉變為經常性收入。美元走強對我們的零售和自助銀行業務造成了 7,200 萬美元的不利影響。
On the top right, adjusted EBITDA increased $27 million year-over-year to $380 million, up 8% year-over-year as reported and up 14% on a constant currency basis. Foreign currency exchange rates had an unfavorable impact of $20 million. Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 150 basis points from the fourth quarter of 2021 to 18.9%.
右上角顯示,調整後的 EBITDA 年成長 2,700 萬美元,達到 3.8 億美元,報告顯示年增 8%,以固定匯率計算成長 14%。外匯匯率造成了 2000 萬美元的不利影響。調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率較 2021 年第四季擴大 150 個基點,達到 18.9%。
In the bottom left, reported non-GAAP EPS was $0.79, up $0.03 or 4% year-over-year as reported and up 8% on a constant currency basis. The strength of the U.S. dollar reduced EPS by about $0.03. The non-GAAP tax rate was 29.9% versus 26% in the prior year, and that impacted EPS by about $0.05.
左下角報告的非 GAAP EPS 為 0.79 美元,比去年同期增長 0.03 美元或 4%,以固定匯率計算增長 8%。美元走強導致每股收益減少約 0.03 美元。非公認會計準則稅率為 29.9%,而上年度為 26%,對每股盈餘的影響約為 0.05 美元。
And finally, free cash flow was $202 million due to the predicted improvements in working capital, which had up until then been a persistent use of cash for the first 3 quarters of the year. I'll have more on cash flow and leverage later.
最後,由於預計營運資本將有所改善,自由現金流達到 2.02 億美元,而營運資本在此之前一直是今年前三個季度的持續現金使用。稍後我將詳細介紹現金流和槓桿。
Slide 8 shows our financial highlights for the full year. Revenue was $7.8 billion, up 10% year-over-year and up 13% on a constant currency basis, driven by strong progress across our strategic growth platforms. Remember that 2022 benefited from the full year of legacy Cardtronics results, which was acquired in June of 2021. Normalizing for the inclusion of Cardtronics, revenue was up 6% on a constant currency basis.
幻燈片 8 展示了我們全年的財務亮點。營收為 78 億美元,年增 10%,以固定匯率計算成長 13%,這得益於我們策略性成長平台的強勁進步。請記住,2022 年受益於 2021 年 6 月收購的 Cardtronics 全年業績。考慮到 Cardtronics 的納入,以固定匯率計算,營收成長了 6%。
The very strong U.S. dollar had an unfavorable impact of $231 million on reported revenue, primarily within our self-service banking and retail segments. Adjusted for the impact of FX, all 5 of our reported segments contributed to our growth.
美元走強對報告收入產生了 2.31 億美元的不利影響,主要集中在我們的自助銀行和零售部門。經外匯影響調整後,我們報告的所有 5 個部門都為我們的成長做出了貢獻。
Recurring revenue again outpaced total revenue growth, up 16% year-over-year and up 20% when adjusted for FX and now makes up 62% of revenue. For the full year, impact of shift to recurring revenue reduced revenue by $210 million, also primarily in our self-service banking and Retail segments.
經常性收入再次超過總收入成長,年增 16%,經外匯調整後成長 20%,目前佔營收的 62%。就全年而言,轉向經常性收入的影響導致收入減少了 2.1 億美元,這主要發生在我們的自助銀行和零售部門。
In the top right, adjusted EBITDA was $1.4 billion, up 10% year-over-year as reported and up 16% on a constant currency basis. FX had an unfavorable impact of $60 million. Adjusted EBITDA margin rate was 17.5%, remarkably, up slightly year-over-year.
右上顯示,調整後的 EBITDA 為 14 億美元,較去年同期成長 10%,以固定匯率計算則成長 16%。外匯產生了 6,000 萬美元的不利影響。調整後EBITDA利潤率為17.5%,較去年同期略有上升。
On the bottom left, non-GAAP EPS for the full year was $2.62, up 2% year-over-year and up 12% on a constant currency basis from the year ago 2021. Higher interest costs, higher tax rate and a higher share count together caused EPS to grow less quickly than EBITDA.
左下角顯示,全年非 GAAP 每股盈餘為 2.62 美元,較去年同期成長 2%,以固定匯率計算比 2021 年同期成長 12%。更高的利息成本、更高的稅率和更高的股票數量共同導致每股收益的增長速度低於 EBITDA。
And we generated $164 million of free cash flow for the year. More than all of that was generated in the fourth quarter. Supply chain challenges though now abating caused both nonlinear revenue generation and a purposeful investment in working capital to assure availability of parts for both OEM and repairs.
我們今年創造了 1.64 億美元的自由現金流。其中大部分都是在第四季產生的。儘管供應鏈挑戰現在有所減輕,但還是導致了收入的非線性增長和對營運資本的有目的的投資,以確保為 OEM 和維修提供零件。
And the impact of our labor cost reductions and changes in employee benefit programs impacted the P&L before they were evident in cash flow. Both of these effects are timing issues that we've benefited from in Q4 and will continue to harvest in Q1. I'll provide more detail on cash flow on Slide 14.
我們的勞動成本降低和員工福利計畫變化的影響在現金流顯現之前就已經影響了損益表。這兩種效應都是時機問題,我們在第四季已經受益,並將在第一季繼續收穫。我將在第 14 張投影片上提供有關現金流的更多詳細資訊。
Moving to Slide 9, which shows our Retail segment results. Starting in the top left, retail full year revenue was up 5% on a constant currency basis. Fourth quarter revenue was down 5% year-over-year and down slightly adjusted for FX on lower hardware sales.
轉到幻燈片 9,其中展示了我們的零售部門業績。從左上角開始,零售全年收入按固定匯率計算增加了 5%。第四季營收年減 5%,由於硬體銷售額下降,外匯調整後營收略有下降。
Retail full year adjusted EBITDA was down 6% year-over-year and was flat on a constant currency basis. Full year adjusted EBITDA margin rate contracted 140 basis points, 18.4%. The full year EBITDA rate was particularly impacted by component cost inflation on POS devices during the first half of the year. Fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA declined 3% year-over-year and was up 2% adjusted for currency.
零售業全年調整後 EBITDA 年減 6%,以固定匯率計算持平。全年調整後EBITDA利潤率收縮140個基點,至18.4%。全年 EBITDA 率尤其受到上半年 POS 設備零件成本上漲的影響。第四季調整後的 EBITDA 年減 3%,經貨幣調整後上漲 2%。
While the comparisons are difficult because of the slow start in Q1, retail exited the year with margin rates north of 20%, a recovery of almost 800 basis points from Q1 levels. And fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA margin rate expanded 60 basis points over the prior year. We continue to have success transitioning our retail business from onetime perpetual sales into multiyear subscription-based revenue streams.
雖然由於第一季開局緩慢,比較起來比較困難,但零售業在年底的利潤率超過了 20%,較第一季的水準回升了近 800 個基點。第四季調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率較上年同期擴大了 60 個基點。我們繼續成功地將零售業務從一次性永久銷售轉變為多年基於訂閱的收入流。
The strategic deals that Mike mentioned were key wins in 2022. The nature of these contracts shifted roughly $45 million of very high profit revenue that would previously have occurred upfront to recurring revenue that will be recognized over the next 4 to 7 years. Most of this shift occurred in the second half of the year, including $25 million in Q4 alone. The bottom of the slide shows retail segment key strategic performance indicators.
麥克提到的戰略交易是 2022 年的關鍵勝利。這些合約的性質將大約 4500 萬美元的高額利潤收入(以前會預先發生)轉變為將在未來 4 到 7 年內確認的經常性收入。大部分轉變發生在下半年,光是第四季就發生了 2,500 萬美元。幻燈片底部顯示了零售部門關鍵策略績效指標。
On the left, our platform lanes. a KPI that illustrates the success of our strategy to convert our retail customers to our platform-based subscription model. We increased our number of platform lanes by more than 200%. The platform lane increase was driven by rollouts at major convenience of fuel customers. While platform lanes currently only represent less than 4% of our total lanes, we are seeing accelerating momentum for conversion of our traditional lanes have a substantial lane conversion backlog.
左邊是我們的月台通道。這個關鍵績效指標表明,我們將零售客戶轉變為基於平台的訂閱模式的策略取得了成功。我們的月台車道數量增加了200%以上。月台車道的增加主要是為了方便加油站顧客。雖然目前月台車道僅占我們總車道的不到 4%,但我們看到傳統車道轉換的勢頭正在加速,並且有大量車道轉換積壓。
In the center bottom is our self-checkout revenue. Self-checkout revenue for the full year increased 3% year-over-year. And ARR increased 1% year-over-year on higher ARPU generated by those new platform lanes. Similar to the impact on revenue, currency rates did reduce all of our ARR calculations. And in this business by about 5 full points of growth.
底部中央是我們的自助結帳收入。全年自助結帳收入年增3%。由於這些新平台帶來的更高 ARPU,ARR 年增了 1%。與對收入的影響類似,貨幣匯率確實降低了我們所有的 ARR 計算。並且該業務實現了約 5 個百分點的成長。
Slide 10 shows our Hospitality segment results and illustrates momentum across this business. For the full year, hospitality revenue increased $77 million or 10% adjusting for currency. Our enterprise business was up 8%, driven by new store openings, technology refreshes and services growth.
幻燈片 10 展示了我們的酒店業部門業績,並說明了整個業務的發展勢頭。全年來看,酒店收入按匯率調整後增加了 7,700 萬美元,即 10%。我們的企業業務成長了 8%,這得益於新店開業、技術更新和服務成長。
Our SMB business was driven up by 13% by the success of our platform products and payments. Fourth quarter revenue increased $8 million or 3% year-over-year as reported and 5% adjusting for currency.
由於我們的平台產品和支付的成功,我們的中小企業業務成長了 13%。第四季營收年增 800 萬美元,增幅為 3%,根據匯率調整後成長 5%。
Full year adjusted EBITDA was up 22%. Adjusted EBITDA margin rate for the full year expanded 210 basis points to 21%. A richer revenue mix with more payments and platform sales and improving indirect cost absorption drove profitability improvements.
全年調整後的 EBITDA 成長 22%。全年調整後EBITDA利潤率擴大210個基點至21%。更豐富的收入組合、更多的支付和平台銷售以及改善的間接成本吸收推動了獲利能力的提高。
Fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA was up 38% year-over-year. Adjusted EBITDA margin rate expanded 570 basis points to 23%. Better mix of software and services combined with strong cost productivity drove better margin rates. Hospitality's key strategic metrics are on the bottom of this slide and include platform sites, payment sites and ARR.
第四季調整後的 EBITDA 年成長 38%。調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率擴大 570 個基點至 23%。更好的軟體和服務組合加上強大的成本生產力推動了更好的利潤率。飯店業的關鍵策略指標位於此投影片的底部,包括平台站點、支付站點和 ARR。
For the full year, platform sites increased 20%. Payment sites increased 64% and ARR was up 6% year-over-year on the higher ARPU at both new platform and new payment sites. We continue to see strategic momentum in this business as enterprise clients shift to the platform and add services and SMB clients attach payments.
全年平台網站數量增加20%。由於新平台和新支付網站的 ARPU 均有所提高,支付網站數量增加了 64%,ARR 年增 6%。隨著企業客戶轉向該平台並增加服務以及中小企業客戶附加付款,我們繼續看到該業務的戰略勢頭。
Turning to Slide 11, which shows our Digital Banking segment. Full year digital banking revenue increased $30 million or 6% year-over-year, driven by client wins, strong renewal momentum and cross-sell success at Terafina and channel service platform. Fourth quarter revenue increased $6 million or 5% year-over-year. Full year adjusted EBITDA was up 6% year-over-year with an adjusted EBITDA margin rate increasing to 42%. A richer revenue mix and improving indirect cost absorption drove profitability improvements. Fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA was up 4% year-over-year with an adjusted EBITDA margin rate of 39%.
翻到幻燈片 11,它展示了我們的數位銀行部分。全年數位銀行營收年增 3,000 萬美元,增幅 6%,這得益於客戶的成功、強勁的續約勢頭以及 Terafina 和通路服務平台的交叉銷售成功。第四季營收年增 600 萬美元,增幅 5%。全年調整後 EBITDA 較去年同期成長 6%,調整後 EBITDA 利潤率增至 42%。更豐富的收入組合和改善的間接成本吸收推動了獲利能力的提高。第四季調整後 EBITDA 年成長 4%,調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 39%。
Digital Banking's key strategic metrics in the bottom of this slide include registered users, active users and annual recurring revenue. Both registered and active users, which drive about 2/3 of the revenue in this business increased 5% year-over-year, having outgrown 2 consolidation-driven de-conversions that impacted results in midyear 2022, and ARR was up 3% year-over-year.
本投影片底部的數位銀行關鍵策略指標包括註冊用戶、活躍用戶和年度經常性收入。註冊用戶和活躍用戶(佔該業務收入的約 2/3)同比增長 5%,超過了 2022 年中期影響業績的 2 次合併驅動的去轉化,ARR 同比增長 3%。
Let's move to Slide 12. This is our Payments and Network segment. Starting at the top left, Payments and Network revenue for the full year increased $611 million or 91%, and 96% when adjusted for FX rates. Most of the effect of the addition of the full year of legacy Cardtronics results occurred in this segment. Normalizing for the inclusion of Cardtronics, revenue was up 12% on a constant currency basis.
讓我們轉到投影片 12。這是我們的支付和網路部分。從左上角開始,全年支付和網路收入增加了 6.11 億美元,即 91%,根據外匯匯率調整後則增加了 96%。全年原有 Cardtronics 業績的增加大部分影響都發生在這一部門。如果將 Cardtronics 納入正常範圍,以固定匯率計算,營收將成長 12%。
Fourth quarter revenue increased $24 million or 8% year-over-year and 11% adjusted for FX. Full year payments and network adjusted EBITDA increased 70% year-over-year and 76% when adjusted for FX.
第四季營收比去年同期增加 2,400 萬美元,成長 8%,根據外匯調整後成長 11%。全年付款和網路調整後的 EBITDA 年成長 70%,經外匯調整後成長 76%。
While the inclusion of full year Cardtronics results, strong revenue mix and cost productivity all benefited comparative profitability, short-term interest rates that are a primary driver of our cash rental costs significantly impacted 2022 results and will further impact 2023 results.
雖然全年 Cardtronics 業績、強勁的收入組合和成本生產力均有利於比較盈利能力,但作為我們現金租賃成本主要驅動因素的短期利率顯著影響了 2022 年的業績,並將進一步影響 2023 年的業績。
The cost of renting cash in our ATM fleet goes through EBITDA's cost of goods, and would have reduced EBITDA by approximately $50 million in 2022 and an incremental $95 million in 2023. That said, the combination of our hedging program, operational optimization and price protections will result in a net effective interest rates of $40 million in 2022 and another $45 million in 2023.
我們 ATM 機群的現金租賃成本計入 EBITDA 的商品成本,這將導致 2022 年 EBITDA 減少約 5,000 萬美元,2023 年 EBITDA 減少 9,500 萬美元。也就是說,我們的對沖計劃、營運優化和價格保護相結合將導致 2022 年淨有效利率達到 4,000 萬美元,2023 年再達到 4,500 萬美元。
Adjusted EBITDA margin rate was 32% for the full year. Fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA declined 9% year-over-year and 5% when adjusted for FX. Adjusted EBITDA margin rate contracted 550 basis points in the fourth quarter to 30%, down from the prior year, primarily due to those higher cash rental costs. The bottom of this slide shows payments and network key strategic metrics.
全年調整後EBITDA利潤率為32%。第四季調整後的 EBITDA 年減 9%,經匯率調整後下降 5%。第四季調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率收縮 550 個基點至 30%,低於去年同期,主要原因是現金租賃成本增加。此投影片的底部顯示了支付和網路關鍵策略指標。
On the bottom left, endpoints increased 24% year-over-year. These access points to the Allpoint network and merchant acquiring terminals are expanding as we migrate them to our NCR installed base.
左下角,端點年增了 24%。隨著我們將這些 Allpoint 網路存取點和商家收單終端遷移到我們的 NCR 安裝基礎,它們正在不斷擴展。
In the center bottom, our transactions, the KPI that illustrates the payments processed across our Allpoint network, and our merchant acquiring networks. Transactions were up 27% for the full year. Annual recurring revenue in this business increased 8% year-over-year.
在底部中央,我們的交易、KPI 說明了透過我們的 Allpoint 網路和商家收單網路處理的付款。全年交易量成長了27%。該業務的年度經常性收入年增8%。
Slide 13 shows our self-service banking segment results. Self-service banking full year revenue was flat year-over-year as reported and up 4% on a constant currency basis. Fourth quarter revenue was down 2% as reported and up 2% on a constant currency basis. We continue to have success transitioning our self-service banking business from onetime perpetual sales into multiyear subscription-based revenue streams.
幻燈片 13 展示了我們的自助銀行業務部門的表現。自助銀行全年營收與去年同期持平,以固定匯率計算成長 4%。第四季營收按報告計算下降了 2%,以固定匯率計算則增加了 2%。我們繼續成功地將自助銀行業務從一次性永久銷售轉變為多年基於訂閱的收入流。
In the fourth quarter, we shifted roughly $37 million of high profit revenue that would previously have occurred upfront as software licenses to recurring revenue. For the full year, the impact of the shift to recurring revenue for self-service banking was $100 million. We expect this effect to be closer to $150 million in 2023 as our ATM as a Service business accelerates. This future impact will defer less profit per dollar of revenue as the ATM hardware has lower margins than the accompanying software.
在第四季度,我們將約 3,700 萬美元的高利潤收入(這些收入之前會以軟體許可證的形式預先產生)轉為經常性收入。就全年而言,自助銀行轉向經常性收入的影響為 1 億美元。隨著我們的 ATM 即服務業務加速發展,我們預計到 2023 年將接近 1.5 億美元。由於 ATM 硬體的利潤率低於配套軟體,這種未來影響將導致每美元收入的利潤減少。
Full year adjusted EBITDA declined 3% year-over-year and was up 1% on a constant currency basis. Adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter increased 9% year-over-year and was up 13% on an FX consistent basis. Full year adjusted EBITDA margin rate was 22% and the fourth quarter rate was 23%. Very strong cost productivity was able to overcome significant cost pressures, particularly in the first half of the year.
全年調整後的 EBITDA 年減 3%,以固定匯率計算則上漲 1%。第四季調整後 EBITDA 年成長 9%,以外匯一致計算成長 13%。全年調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為 22%,第四季利潤率為 23%。非常強勁的成本生產力能夠克服巨大的成本壓力,尤其是在今年上半年。
The bottom of the slide shows self-service banking segment key strategic metrics. On the left, our software and services revenue mix was similar to last year at 68%. ATM as a Service units increased 226% year-over-year to over 14,000 units. We experienced significant growth in India and incremental growth in the United States. The shift to recurring revenue continues to gain traction with ARR up 4% year-over-year. Slide 14 describes free cash flow, net debt and adjusted EBITDA metrics to facilitate leverage calculations.
幻燈片底部顯示了自助銀行部門的關鍵策略指標。左側,我們的軟體和服務收入組合與去年相似,為 68%。 ATM 即服務單位年增 226%,達到 14,000 多台。我們在印度取得了顯著成長,在美國也實現了漸進式成長。向經常性收入的轉變持續獲得推動,ARR 年成長 4%。投影片 14 描述了自由現金流、淨債務和調整後的 EBITDA 指標,以便於槓桿計算。
As I said earlier, we generated $202 million of free cash flow in the quarter which represented more than all of the cash we generated in 2022. While the quarter results were solid, the full year results were insufficient. Looking forward, the combination of higher profitability further working capital improvements, particularly at inventory and the lapse of the timing issues and compensation and benefits, we expect $400 million to $500 million of free cash flow generation in 2023, with a significant proportion of that cash coming in the first half of the year.
正如我之前所說,我們在本季產生了 2.02 億美元的自由現金流,這超過了我們 2022 年產生的所有現金。雖然本季的業績穩健,但全年業績卻不足。展望未來,獲利能力的提高、營運資本的進一步改善(尤其是庫存、時間問題以及薪資福利的消失)等因素綜合作用,我們預計 2023 年將產生 4 億至 5 億美元的自由現金流,其中很大一部分將出現在上半年。
We have been clear about our intention to reduce total company leverage by at least $500 million, before we complete our contemplated spin transaction later this year. Beyond the operating activities described in the segment discussions, we're looking at other ways to generate cash that can aid in reducing leverage. In Q4, a concentrated effort to repatriate overseas cash was actioned and delivered some early results.
我們已經明確表示,我們將在今年稍後完成預期的分拆交易之前,將公司總槓桿率降低至少 5 億美元。除了分部討論中所描述的經營活動之外,我們還在尋找其他能夠幫助降低槓桿率的現金產生方式。第四季度,集中力量匯回海外現金,並取得了一些初步成效。
We also importantly completed our first nonrecourse financing arrangement for ATM as a service, which is crucial to funding this growth strategy. And finally, we made a $50 million voluntary contribution to the U.S. pension program to address underfunding and push out any mandatory contributions.
重要的是,我們也完成了針對 ATM 服務的首個無追索權融資安排,這對於資助這項成長策略至關重要。最後,我們向美國退休金計畫自願捐款 5,000 萬美元,以解決資金不足問題並推遲任何強制性繳款。
This slide also shows our net debt to adjusted EBITDA metric with a leverage ratio of 3.8x, down from 4.1x in Q4 2021 due to higher profitability. We remain well within our debt covenants and have significant liquidity with over $750 million available under our revolving credit facility. We have a strong balance sheet, ample liquidity and the financial strength to support our growth strategy.
這張投影片也顯示了我們的淨債務與調整後 EBITDA 指標的槓桿率為 3.8 倍,由於獲利能力提高,低於 2021 年第四季的 4.1 倍。我們仍然嚴格遵守債務契約,並擁有充足的流動性,循環信貸額度下有超過 7.5 億美元的可用資金。我們擁有強大的資產負債表、充足的流動性和財務實力來支持我們的成長策略。
On Slide 15, we present our first quarter and full year 2023 guidance. After 3 straight years of multi-varied uncertainty, we have proven that our forecast or guidance are only as good as the macro assumptions that underlie them and that they can become dated very soon after they're issued.
在第 15 張投影片上,我們展示了 2023 年第一季和全年的指導。經過連續三年的多重不確定性,我們已經證明,我們的預測或指導僅與其背後的宏觀假設一樣好,並且它們在發布後很快就會過時。
That said, for this guidance, we have assumed the following: that interest rates are correctly described by the forward curve on January 1; that the currency exchange rates are also accurately described by the forward rates as January 1; that the global economy will experience a modest consumer-led recession that may constrain growth in our nonrecurring revenue streams; and that our ATM as a Service business defers $150 million of ATM revenue at the accompanying hardware margin rates from 2023 into future years.
也就是說,對於本指南,我們假設以下情況:1 月 1 日的遠期曲線正確描述了利率;貨幣匯率也準確地用 1 月 1 日的遠期匯率來描述;全球經濟將經歷由消費者主導的溫和衰退,這可能會限制我們非經常性收入流的增長;並且我們的 ATM 即服務業務將 2023 年的 ATM 1.5 億美元的 1.5 億美元推遲到未來。
These assumptions mean that the pernicious effect of interest rates and currency exchange rates will drive tougher reported comparisons in the first half of the year but should ease in the second half. They also mean that our efforts to reduce cost and drive productivity needed to be extended.
這些假設意味著利率和貨幣匯率的惡劣影響將導致上半年報告的比較更加嚴格,但下半年應該會有所緩解。這也意味著我們需要加強降低成本和提高生產力的努力。
While price and cost actions taken in the first half of 2022 allowed a significant recovery in profitability in that second half, further actions are necessary to offset the wrap effect of 2022's challenges and to preemptively address the dis-synergies that we anticipate from the spin transaction. In the fourth quarter, we initiated additional cost takeout actions that are expected to drive sufficient incremental savings in 2023 to more than offset any dis-synergies resulting from the contemplated spin.
雖然 2022 年上半年採取的價格和成本行動使下半年盈利能力顯著回升,但仍需採取進一步行動來抵消 2022 年挑戰的包裹效應,並先發製人地解決我們預計分拆交易將帶來的不協同效應。在第四季度,我們啟動了額外的成本削減行動,預計這些行動將在 2023 年帶來足夠的增量節省,足以抵消預期分拆所造成的任何不協同效應。
Before I walk you through the guidance page, I want to highlight that we intend to change our calculation of non-GAAP EPS to exclude the impact of stock-based compensation expense. This change will result in better alignment of our calculation with both our post-spin pure-play peers and with our own calculation of adjusted EBITDA that already excludes stock-based compensation.
在向您介紹指導頁面之前,我想強調一下,我們打算改變非公認會計準則每股收益的計算方法,以排除股票薪酬費用的影響。這項變更將使我們的計算結果與分拆後的純業務同業以及我們自己已經排除股票薪酬的調整後 EBITDA 計算結果更加一致。
After reviewing the intended change with our Board, it was determined that the change should be made at the start of the new fiscal year concurrent with annual guidance rather than waiting until the spin transaction occurs. Because many of you have existing models based on our prior convention, I provided guidance both with and without this change. The impact of stock-based compensation was about $0.70 in 2022 and is expected to be about $0.75 in 2023.
在與董事會審查了預期的變更後,我們確定變更應在新財政年度開始時與年度指導同時進行,而不是等到分拆交易發生。因為你們中的許多人都有基於我們之前的慣例的現有模型,所以我提供了有和沒有這種變化的指導。 2022 年股票薪酬的影響約為 0.70 美元,預計 2023 年約為 0.75 美元。
So for the full year 2023, we expect revenue of $7.8 billion to $8 billion after the impact of the ATM as a service shift of $150 million, and on a constant currency basis. While forward rates would suggest only a very modest full year impact from FX, it will be a notable drag in the first half of the year and will impact calendarization. We expect adjusted EBITDA to be $1.45 billion to $1.55 billion. Adjusted EBITDA margins are expected to expand to roughly 19%. I'll provide more detail on EBITDA on the next slide.
因此,對於 2023 年全年而言,我們預計在 ATM 即服務轉變帶來 1.5 億美元影響後,以固定匯率計算,營收將達到 78 億美元至 80 億美元。儘管遠期利率表明外匯對全年的影響非常有限,但它將對上半年產生顯著拖累,並影響日曆化。我們預計調整後的 EBITDA 將達到 14.5 億美元至 15.5 億美元。調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率預計將擴大至約 19%。我將在下一張幻燈片中提供有關 EBITDA 的更多詳細資訊。
Non-GAAP EPS is expected to be $3.30 to $3.50 under our new convention. That range is comparable to $2.55 to $2.75 under our prior methodology. In calculating EPS guidance for 2023, we assumed interest expense of $330 million, an increase of $45 million or $0.29 a share.
根據我們的新慣例,非 GAAP EPS 預計為 3.30 美元至 3.50 美元。根據我們之前的方法,範圍相當於 2.55 美元至 2.75 美元。在計算 2023 年每股盈餘指引時,我們假設利息支出為 3.3 億美元,增加 4,500 萬美元或每股 0.29 美元。
We also assumed a tax rate of 29% versus 28% in 2022 and a share count of 155 million shares versus the 150.4 million shares in 2022. The combination of these 2 impact reported EPS by another $0.11. Obviously, these assumptions have a range of potential outcomes, and we will provide update quarterly as necessary.
我們也假設稅率為 29%,而 2022 年為 28%,股票數量為 1.55 億股,而 2022 年為 1.504 億股。這兩項因素的結合將對報告每股盈餘產生另外 0.11 美元的影響。顯然,這些假設會產生一系列潛在結果,我們將根據需要每季提供更新。
As I discussed earlier, we expect to generate $400 million to $500 million of free cash flow on a more linear basis than 2022. To assure alignment with your quarterly models, I also want to provide some thoughts on Q1 and the calendarization of the full year 2023. For Q1 2023, we expect reported revenue of $1.8 billion to $1.9 billion, up $50 million on a currency-neutral basis from the last Q1. We expect adjusted EBITDA of approximately $300 million. We expect non-GAAP EPS of $0.55 to $0.60 and expect to generate free cash flow between $100 million and $200 million. For the quarter, we have assumed a tax rate of 29%, a share count of 152 million shares and interest expense of $85 million.
正如我之前所討論的,我們預計將產生 4 億至 5 億美元的自由現金流,其線性成長速度比 2022 年更高。為了確保與您的季度模型保持一致,我還想就第一季以及 2023 年全年的日曆化提供一些想法。對於 2023 年第一季度,我們預計報告營收為 18 億至 19 億美元,以貨幣中性計算,比去年第一季增加 5,000 萬美元。我們預計調整後的 EBITDA 約為 3 億美元。我們預計非 GAAP 每股收益為 0.55 美元至 0.60 美元,預計將產生 1 億至 2 億美元之間的自由現金流。對於本季度,我們假設稅率為 29%,股票數量為 1.52 億股,利息支出為 8,500 萬美元。
For the remainder of 2023, we expect relatively linear sequential quarterly improvement across most financial metrics, ultimately aggregating to the results described in our annual guidance.
對於 2023 年剩餘時間,我們預期大多數財務指標將出現相對線性的連續季度改善,最終達到我們年度指引中所描述的結果。
Slide 16 -- finally, Slide 16 provides a high-level illustration of our EBITDA drivers, juxtaposing 2022 realized impacts against our 2023 expectations for the same bucket. I will walk you through the relative impacts for 2022 and our outlook for 2023.
投影片 16—最後,投影片 16 對我們的 EBITDA 驅動因素進行了高階的說明,將 2022 年實現的影響與我們對同一時間段的 2023 年預期進行了對比。我將向您介紹 2022 年的相對影響以及我們對 2023 年的展望。
In the first red bar, we have aggregated the discrete items that we had talked about prior under external impacts, including in order of magnitude, component costs and expedited freight, exchange rate translation, interest expense, war in the Ukraine and finally, the last wave of the pandemic. Taken together, these effects totaled about $200 million in 2022.
在第一個紅色長條圖中,我們匯總了先前在外部影響下討論過的離散項目,包括按數量級排序的零件成本和加急運費、匯率轉換、利息支出、烏克蘭戰爭以及最後一場疫情。總的來說,這些影響在 2022 年總計約 2 億美元。
The next red bar labeled inflation includes both material and labor cost increases across our global cost structure that was nearly 6%. This bucket includes NCR labor, contractor labor, fuel and commodities, planned freight, parts, raws, et cetera. To address these 2 bars together, there were close to $500 million of impact, we launched similarly sized actions in Qs 2 and 3 that reduced our overall spend on improved pricing. In aggregate, our actions totaled about $400 million.
下一個標有通貨膨脹的紅色條包括我們全球成本結構中的材料和勞動力成本的增長,接近 6%。此類別包括 NCR 勞動力、承包商勞動力、燃料和商品、計劃貨運、零件、原材料等。為了同時解決這兩個問題,影響金額接近 5 億美元,我們在第二季和第三季採取了類似規模的行動,減少了我們在改善定價方面的整體支出。總的來說,我們的行動總額約為4億美元。
Most of these actions targeted indirect costs to offset our uncontrollable effects in our direct costs. About 40% of these actions were permanent the remaining 60% were fast but temporal and have since been replaced with more permanent actions that will benefit 2023.
這些措施大多針對間接成本,以抵銷我們無法控制的直接成本影響。其中約 40% 的行動是永久性的,其餘 60% 是快速但暫時的,後來被更永久性的行動所取代,這將使 2023 年受益。
Bringing down the page. In 2023, those same external impacts will be far less impactful. We will have residual wrap effect from interest costs. The other items are either built into the 2022 base like our exit from Russia or have swung to a net positive like premium freight and ship costs. And we expect excess inflation to ease to a more manageable level.
拉下頁面。到 2023 年,同樣的外部影響將遠小於此。我們將獲得利息成本的剩餘包裝效應。其他項目要么已計入 2022 年基數,例如我們退出俄羅斯,要么已轉為淨正值,例如溢價運費和船舶成本。我們預計過度通膨將會降至更可控的水平。
In Q4, we launched another round of cost actions that are more sustainable and anticipate the dis-synergies from the planned spin transaction. These actions were more than sufficient to both replace the 2022 temporal actions and to cover the follow-on impact of last year's shocks. We entered 2023 with almost 7% fewer headcount than we started with in 2022. About half of those reductions were from attrition and the remainder were reductions in force.
在第四季度,我們啟動了另一輪更永續的成本行動,並預計計畫中的分拆交易將產生不協同效應。這些行動足以取代2022年的臨時行動,並彌補去年衝擊的後續影響。與 2022 年初相比,我們進入 2023 年時的員工人數減少了近 7%。其中約一半的裁員來自自然減員,其餘的是強制裁員。
And finally, as you read across the remaining columns, you can see that in both years, the volume growth is muted by an acceleration in our shift to recurring revenue and increased pricing is around $150 million.
最後,當您閱讀剩餘的列時,您會發現在這兩年中,由於我們向經常性收入轉變的加速,銷售增長受到抑制,並且定價增加至約 1.5 億美元。
With that, I'll turn it back to you, Mike.
說完這些,我就把話題轉回給你,麥克。
Michael Dale Hayford - CEO & Director
Michael Dale Hayford - CEO & Director
Thanks, Tim. Moving to Slide 17. Let me provide an update on our thoughts on separating NCR into 2 public companies. We intend to separate NCR's existing payments and network and self-service banking businesses to form a new entity via tax-free spin-off and distribution of shares to existing shareholders.
謝謝,蒂姆。轉到第 17 張投影片。讓我來介紹一下我們對將 NCR 拆分為兩家上市公司的想法。我們打算將 NCR 現有的支付和網路及自助銀行業務分離,透過免稅分拆和向現有股東分配股份的方式組成一個新的實體。
NCR's ATM Co includes NCR's self-service banking. In other words, our traditional ATM hardware, software and services business, and all of our payments and network business, except for the merchant services payment, which is integrated tightly into the retail and hospitality segments of NCR.
NCR 的 ATM Co 包括 NCR 的自助銀行業務。換句話說,我們的傳統 ATM 硬體、軟體和服務業務,以及除商家服務支付之外的所有支付和網路業務,都與 NCR 的零售和飯店部門緊密結合。
NCR will include our retail, hospitality, Digital First Banking and our Merchant Services payment business. NCR will continue its transformation to a software-led as a service growth company. These businesses operate in markets where we expect to see continued spending on technology to run the store, run the restaurant and deliver digital-first banking solutions. We believe NCR continue to be positioned to win the business for those upgrade imperatives.
NCR 將包括我們的零售、酒店、數位第一銀行和商家服務支付業務。 NCR 將繼續轉型成為一家以軟體為主導的服務型成長型公司。我們預計這些企業在市場中運作時將繼續在技術上投入資金,以經營商店、經營餐廳並提供數位優先的銀行解決方案。我們相信 NCR 將繼續佔據贏得這些升級需求業務的優勢地位。
Moving to Slide 18. NCR has made significant strides over the past 5 years to transform our company into a customer-first software-led as a services company. The actions we have taken to align our organization around customers and markets will help us move into 2 organizations.
轉到投影片 18。 NCR 在過去 5 年中取得了重大進展,將公司轉變為以客戶為先、以軟體為主導的服務公司。我們採取的行動使我們的組織圍繞客戶和市場進行調整,這將幫助我們轉變為兩個組織。
We believe we are #1 in the markets we serve. They represent enormous opportunity for us, and our goal is to make sure we continue to take advantage of our market-leading position. Our NCR RemainCo on the left side of Page 18, will be the #1 provider of point-of-sale software in the world and the #1 provider of self-checkout, and NCR will be the leading provider of DFB or digital-first banking solutions. NCR RemainCo is anticipated to be a higher-growth company serving markets that have growing demand for integrated platforms to serve retailers, restaurants and banks and enable them to serve their clients with a differentiated experience.
我們相信,我們在所服務的市場中排名第一。它們對我們來說代表著巨大的機遇,我們的目標是確保我們繼續利用我們的市場領先地位。我們位於第 18 頁左側的 NCR RemainCo 將成為全球第一的銷售點軟體供應商和第一的自助結帳供應商,而 NCR 將成為 DFB 或數位優先銀行解決方案的領先提供者。 NCR RemainCo 預計將成為一家高成長公司,服務於對整合平台日益增長的需求的市場,為零售商、餐廳和銀行提供服務,並使他們能夠為客戶提供差異化的體驗。
NCR ATM Co, which is labeled SpinCo on the right-hand side of Page 18, will continue to be the #1 provider of multi-vendor ATM hardware ATM software applications and ATM middleware in the world and will have the largest surcharge-free network.
NCR ATM Co(在第 18 頁右側標記為 SpinCo)將繼續成為全球第一大多供應商 ATM 硬體、ATM 軟體應用程式和 ATM 中介軟體供應商,並將擁有最大的免附加費網路。
We will continue our shift as a service with our ATM as-a-service offering. We believe that we will have a differentiated offering that will continue to drive growth and expanding margins as we capture more share of wallet for delivering ATM solutions.
我們將繼續透過 ATM 即服務產品實現服務轉型。我們相信,隨著我們在提供 ATM 解決方案方面獲得更多的市場份額,我們將提供差異化的產品,繼續推動成長和擴大利潤率。
NCR ATMCo is expected to be a stable recurring revenue business with solid cash flow generation that can allow us to deliver cash back to shareholders through a dividend payment. We believe that spinning off NCR's ATMCo in a tax-free transaction is the best path to unlock shareholder value. But should alternative options become available in the future that could deliver superior value such as a whole or partial company sale of NCR, the Board remains open to considering alternative scenarios.
NCR ATMCo 預計將成為一家擁有穩定經常性收入的企業,擁有穩健的現金流,使我們能夠透過股息支付向股東返還現金。我們認為,以免稅交易的方式剝離 NCR 的 ATMCo 是釋放股東價值的最佳途徑。但如果未來出現能帶來更高價值的替代方案,例如出售 NCR 的全部或部分公司,董事會仍願意考慮其他方案。
Slide 19 provides an overview of our separation road map. We have put together a separation management office and have defined our business separation plan. Operationally, the majority of our teams are organized by industry under a general manager business unit. These teams are ready for the spin. Additionally, there are areas of shared services functions such as legal, tax, HR, treasury, IT and real estate that we are in the process of preparing for separation.
投影片 19 概述了我們的分離路線圖。我們已經成立了分離管理辦公室,並制定了業務分離計劃。在營運上,我們的大多數團隊都是按行業組織,由總經理業務部門管理。這些隊伍已經做好準備了。此外,我們正在為法律、稅務、人力資源、財務、IT 和房地產等共享服務職能領域的分離做準備。
We are working on submitting our Form 10 registration statement, and then the timing of separation will be largely dependent on SEC approval and the state of the capital markets. We intend to de-lever through the generation of free cash flow between now and separation is expected to occur by the end of 2023. However, we are working to be in a position to execute the spin as early as late third quarter. This, of course, is dependent on receiving approvals from the SEC and a favorable capital markets environment.
我們正在提交 Form 10 註冊聲明,然後分離的時間將在很大程度上取決於美國證券交易委員會的批准和資本市場的狀況。我們打算透過從現在開始產生自由現金流來降低槓桿率,預計分離將在 2023 年底完成。不過,我們正在努力爭取最早在第三季末實施分拆。當然,這取決於獲得美國證券交易委員會的批准和良好的資本市場環境。
In closing, on Slide 20, we are looking forward to our key priorities are clear. First, we have made significant progress executing our strategic growth initiatives. Our strategic KPIs are trending in the right direction, and we will continue to build on the positive momentum in the business. NCR is winning, and we expect to continue to win in the marketplace.
最後,在第 20 張投影片上,我們期待我們的關鍵優先事項明確。首先,我們在執行策略性成長計劃方面取得了重大進展。我們的策略關鍵績效指標 (KPI) 正朝著正確的方向發展,我們將繼續鞏固業務的積極勢頭。 NCR 正在取得成功,我們期望繼續在市場上取得成功。
Second, we will continue to execute our strategy of transforming NCR to a software-led as a service company with higher recurring revenue streams we continue to have momentum in the business.
其次,我們將繼續執行我們的策略,將 NCR 轉變為一家以軟體為主導的服務公司,擁有更高的經常性收入來源,我們將繼續保持業務發展勢頭。
Third, we are focused on improving our cost structure. We have identified efficiencies for cost action to streamline our costs in 2023.
第三,我們致力於改善成本結構。我們已經確定了成本行動的效率,以便在 2023 年精簡我們的成本。
Fourth, these cost takeout actions, along with positive operating leverage should drive margin expansion.
第四,這些成本削減措施以及積極的經營槓桿應該會推動利潤率的擴大。
Fifth, we expect to generate strong cash flow, as Tim had referenced in his section.
第五,我們預計將產生強勁的現金流,正如蒂姆在他的部分中提到的那樣。
And finally, we are focused on separating NCR into 2 public companies. We are working through the legal and organizational structures and expect to execute the separation by the end of 2023 and be in a position to execute the spin earlier if the opportunity arises.
最後,我們致力於將 NCR 拆分為兩家上市公司。我們正在完善法律和組織結構,預計在 2023 年底前完成分離,如果有機會,我們將能夠提前完成分拆。
This concludes our prepared remarks for the day. With that, we will open the call for questions. Operator, please open the line.
今天的準備發言到此結束。接下來,我們將開始提問。接線員,請接通線路。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Our first question will come from Paul Chung with JPMorgan.
(操作員指示)我們的第一個問題來自摩根大通的 Paul Chung。
Paul Chung - VP & IT Hardware Analyst
Paul Chung - VP & IT Hardware Analyst
So just on the free cash flow guide, can you talk about some of the puts and takes there? Where do you expect CapEx levels, expectations for working cap? And I would have thought there would be somewhat a more outsized benefit on working cap after a heavy investment year.
那麼,僅就自由現金流指南而言,您能談談其中的一些優點和缺點嗎?您預期資本支出水準和營運資本的預期是多少?我原本以為,在經歷了一年的大量投資之後,工作上限的收益會更大一些。
And then you guys did a good job of more uniform cash flow over the course of the year back in '20 and '21, 2022 saw a reversion back due to kind of back-end loaded free cash flow. How do we think about cash flow kind of throughout the year this year?
然後,你們在 2020 年和 2021 年期間很好地實現了更加均衡的現金流,2022 年由於後端加載的自由現金流而出現了回歸。我們如何看待今年全年的現金流?
Timothy C. Oliver - CFO & Senior Executive VP
Timothy C. Oliver - CFO & Senior Executive VP
Yes. A lot of questions in there. CapEx, I'd expect it -- we have about $400 million this year. I think it's going to be on $400 million is slightly higher. I do expect the cash flow to be much more linear this year. As we said in the script, there was some -- as we took cost out of the organization, the P&L benefit outstripped the cash flow benefit, and we'll see that benefit come back in the first half of this year from a timing perspective.
是的。這裡面有很多問題。資本支出,我預計——今年我們的資本支出約為 4 億美元。我認為這個數字會略高於 4 億美元。我確實預計今年的現金流會更加線性。正如我們在腳本中所說的那樣,由於我們從組織中剔除了成本,因此損益表收益超過了現金流收益,從時間角度來看,我們將在今年上半年看到該收益的回升。
We harvested some of the investment in working capital in Q4. You can see that in our cash flow performance. And I think that we're going to make more progress on inventory in the first quarter. So I think our cash flow guidance is very consistent with what we described a quarter ago, right, that we're going to have a very good fourth quarter.
我們在第四季收穫了部分營運資金投資。您可以從我們的現金流表現中看到這一點。我認為我們將在第一季在庫存方面取得更多進展。所以我認為我們的現金流指導與我們一個季度前描述的非常一致,對吧,我們將有一個非常好的第四季。
We're going to have a strong first quarter, and then we'll get back on a more linear path after that. So that's the -- it's not perfectly easy to predict to the dollar, but I guess that we're closer to the high end of the range I described on the guidance page for Q1, which will give us a nice head start in the full year.
我們的第一季將會表現強勁,之後我們將回到更線性的軌道上。所以這就是——預測美元的走勢並不容易,但我想我們更接近我在第一季指導頁面上描述的區間的高端,這將使我們在全年有一個良好的開端。
Paul Chung - VP & IT Hardware Analyst
Paul Chung - VP & IT Hardware Analyst
Got you. And then just a follow-up on self-check out. So you had a very strong performance in '21, and then some monitoring pace here in '22. Talk about the expectations for '23 and longer term? And where you're seeing momentum across regions, verticals? And then can you talk about the halo product, too, where you showcasing NRF? How impactful can that solution be kind of near term, long term?
明白了。然後只是進行自我檢查的後續工作。因此,您在 21 年的表現非常出色,然後在 22 年也保持了一些監控速度。談談對 23 年及更長遠的期望?您認為跨地區、跨垂直產業的發展動能如何?然後您能談談展示 NRF 的光環產品嗎?這個解決方案在短期和長期內能產生多大影響?
Timothy C. Oliver - CFO & Senior Executive VP
Timothy C. Oliver - CFO & Senior Executive VP
I'll let Mike take the product questions. The 3% growth in SCO this year was on an as-reported basis. There's actually 3 full points of growth that went to currency. So on a constant currency basis, that 6% growth is very much in line with what we would have expected that mid- to high single-digit growth at SCO. And next year, I'd expect about the same.
我會讓麥克回答產品問題。今年上合組織的3%的成長是按照報告計算的。實際上,貨幣成長了整整 3 個點。因此,以固定匯率計算,6% 的成長率與我們預期的 SCO 中高個位數成長率非常一致。我預計明年的情況也大致如此。
Michael Dale Hayford - CEO & Director
Michael Dale Hayford - CEO & Director
Yes, Paul, on the Halo product, which you saw at NRF, we're pretty excited about it. It kind of does the best of both worlds. It has the vision-based ability to scan items and identify what they are.
是的,保羅,對於您在 NRF 上看到的 Halo 產品,我們感到非常興奮。它確實做到了兩全其美。它具有基於視覺的掃描物品並識別其內容的能力。
But it also has a capability for those that can't scan appropriately, which is one of the challenges that, that technology has. You can still scan the UBC code. So it's easy to use. A lot of the growth we've seen in self-checkout is in convenience stores and fast food restaurants, and it's a perfect fit for that environment.
但對於那些無法正確掃描的人來說,它也具有一定的功能,這是該技術面臨的挑戰之一。您仍然可以掃描 UBC 代碼。所以使用起來很方便。我們看到自助結帳的大部分成長出現在便利商店和快餐店,它非常適合這些環境。
Operator
Operator
And our next question comes from Matt Summerville with D.A. Davidson.
下一個問題來自 D.A. 的 Matt Summerville。戴維森。
Matt J. Summerville - MD & Senior Research Analyst
Matt J. Summerville - MD & Senior Research Analyst
A couple of questions. Obviously, you're baking in, it sounds like some level of moderate recession into your outlook for '23. Can you talk maybe about incoming order rates and what you may be seeing there relative to your guidance framework? Are you seeing things indicative of a slowdown? Are your go forward look at the funnel suggesting some whom perhaps becoming more pronounced in that regard? And then I have a follow-up.
有幾個問題。顯然,你正在考慮,這聽起來像是在對 23 年經濟的展望中出現了某種程度的中度衰退。您能否談談訂單率以及相對於您的指導框架您可能看到的情況?您是否看到了經濟放緩的跡象?您是否透過對漏斗的展望,發現某些人在這方面可能表現得更加突出?然後我有一個後續問題。
Timothy C. Oliver - CFO & Senior Executive VP
Timothy C. Oliver - CFO & Senior Executive VP
No. I think the order book is strong. It's about as strong as we would hope it would be at the beginning of the year. The uptake on our as-a-service efforts have been very strong. So we've not yet seen any rollback of the order book. Let me give you some color on the total growth for the year because I think if you think about a 2% growth rate across the total company as reported.
不,我認為訂單量很強勁。它和我們年初所希望的一樣強勁。我們的即服務措施得到了非常強烈的認同。所以我們還沒有看到訂單簿有任何回滾。讓我給你介紹一下今年的整體成長情況,因為我認為如果你考慮到報告的整個公司 2% 的成長率。
Self-service banking is likely to be down 4% reported. Now that's up 2% if you add back the shift to recurring revenue, but we're accelerating the shift in recurring revenue in that business. And so it's going to be a 4% decline, we think, with really nice margin expansion. I think there's probably 3 to 4 points of margin expansion in that business.
據報道,自助銀行業務可能會下降 4%。如果將經常性收入的轉變加起來,這個數字就會上升 2%,但我們正在加速該業務中經常性收入的轉變。因此,我們認為,降幅將達到 4%,但利潤率將大幅擴大。我認為該業務的利潤率可能會擴大 3 到 4 個百分點。
We've got 2 businesses, payments and network and digital banking that are both going to grow nearly 10%. Both those businesses are going to invest back into growth. And so their margin rates are likely to come down a little bit, maybe a couple of points there as they invest in growth, which then leaves the retail and hospitality businesses that will grow low single digits each hospitality coming off a rip roaring year.
我們有兩個業務,支付和網路及數位銀行,這兩項業務都將成長近 10%。這兩家企業都將重新投資以實現成長。因此,隨著他們投資於成長,他們的利潤率可能會下降一點,也許下降幾個點,而零售和酒店業務在經歷了輝煌的一年後,每年的成長率都將保持在個位數以下。
And retail, really, when we think about building in a consumer-led recession into our model. We took a little bit of -- if you think about where the nonrecurring revenue streams occur, it's in hardware. It's in POS and self-checkout and it's in ATMs. And so we moderate our expectations for our hardware revenue in the year. If we're wrong and there isn't a recession and our customers aren't affected by it or don't adjust for it, there could be upside to this plan.
當我們考慮將消費者主導的經濟衰退納入我們的模型時,零售業確實如此。我們花了一點時間——如果你想想非經常性收入流發生在哪裡,那就是硬體。它存在於 POS 機、自助結帳機和 ATM 機中。因此,我們調整了對今年硬體收入的預期。如果我們錯了,沒有出現經濟衰退,我們的客戶也沒有受到其影響或沒有做出調整,那麼這個計劃可能會有好處。
Michael Dale Hayford - CEO & Director
Michael Dale Hayford - CEO & Director
Yes, Matt, just to add to Tim's comments, so specifically, have we seen a moderation in demand to date. The simple answer is no. And as you look at Tim walking through the numbers, so some of the growth impact is literally the ability for us to execute our strategic plan and to shift our revenue streams to subscription.
是的,馬特,我只是想補充一下蒂姆的評論,具體來說,到目前為止我們是否看到需求有所緩和。答案很簡單:不是。正如蒂姆在介紹這些數字時所說,成長帶來的影響實際上是我們執行策略計劃和將收入來源轉向訂閱的能力。
And so we're -- it's taken off the fastest a little faster than maybe we anticipated. It was ATM as a service in that backlog. The sales success in 2022 was very strong. The backlog continues to be very strong into 2023. And so that will portend for the future to have a very, very strong business there, but we've got get through 2023 since have payments and network, strong business outlook.
因此,我們的起步速度比我們預期的要快一些。在那個積壓工作中,ATM 是一種服務。 2022 年的銷售業績非常強勁。到 2023 年,積壓訂單仍然非常強勁。因此,這將預示著未來在那裡的業務將非常非常強勁,但我們必須度過 2023 年,因為有了支付和網絡,業務前景強勁。
Digital Banking had an extremely strong fourth quarter, a lot of renewals, a lot of new logos continues to have a very strong backlog in terms of potential I say, backlog sales pipeline. And then recon hospitality, the migration to platform lanes and platform sites. So we haven't seen that yet. We look at the outlook for the marketplace probably a little more concerned about banking, just as banks taking advantage of some margin spread, interest margin spread in '22. I think they're all looking at the same risk. And so later on in the year, will they start to slow down in capital spending. But again, to date, we haven't seen that. And I think our outlook for the year is just trying to be cautious based on the economic outlooks that we are reading.
數位銀行在第四季度表現非常強勁,有很多續約,很多新標識,就潛力而言,我所說的積壓銷售管道繼續擁有非常強勁的積壓。然後偵察接待,遷移到月台車道和月台站點。所以我們還沒有看到這一點。我們對市場前景的看法可能更關注銀行業,就像銀行在 2022 年利用一些利差、利息差額一樣。我認為他們都面臨著同樣的風險。那麼今年晚些時候,他們是否會開始放緩資本支出?但到目前為止,我們還沒有看到這種情況。我認為,根據我們正在閱讀的經濟前景,我們對今年的展望只是保持謹慎。
Matt J. Summerville - MD & Senior Research Analyst
Matt J. Summerville - MD & Senior Research Analyst
Got it. And then just as a follow-up, and I only had a quick second to look at this, just given the timing of the call. But in Payments and Network, it looked like on a quarter-over-quarter basis. So it's not in your current slide deck, I had to go back and look at but it looked like endpoints were down a little bit quarter-on-quarter. Transactions appeared to be down a little bit quarter-on-quarter as was ARR. I realize there's an FX dynamic perhaps driving ARR. But if you can just kind of speak to that, that would be helpful.
知道了。然後作為後續行動,考慮到通話時間,我只有一秒鐘的時間來快速查看。但在支付和網路方面,情況看起來是按季度進行的。所以它不在您當前的幻燈片中,我不得不回去看看,但看起來端點數環比略有下降。交易量和 ARR 似乎都比上一季略有下降。我意識到 FX 動態可能正在推動 ARR。但如果你能談談這一點,那將會很有幫助。
Timothy C. Oliver - CFO & Senior Executive VP
Timothy C. Oliver - CFO & Senior Executive VP
Yes. That's a typical seasonality in what we do. You're going to see a nice pickup in Q1 as tax season comes around. So the end points are moving in the right direction annually. I don't know if there's a modest downdraft in Q4, I can't remember. The transaction numbers are higher. They will go higher. There's a seasonality to them. That's why we moved the key -- the transaction numbers to full year because it takes the seasonality out.
是的。這是我們工作中典型的季節性。隨著納稅季節的到來,您將看到第一季的良好回升。因此,終點每年都在朝著正確的方向發展。我不知道第四季是否會出現溫和的下滑趨勢,我不記得了。交易數量較高。他們會走得更高。它們有季節性。這就是為什麼我們將關鍵交易數字移至全年,因為這樣可以消除季節性因素。
But good transaction growth and the fact that we're going to be able to deliver that 9% top line growth in that business is heavily dependent on more endpoints and more transactions.
但良好的交易成長以及我們能夠實現該業務 9% 的營收成長在很大程度上取決於更多的端點和更多的交易。
Operator
Operator
And our next question will come from Charles Nabhan with Stephens.
我們的下一個問題來自史蒂芬斯的查爾斯·納布漢。
Charles Joseph Nabhan - MD & Analyst
Charles Joseph Nabhan - MD & Analyst
Just wanted to drill into the segments a little more. First of all, within payments, if you were to take out LibertyX what would the organic growth rate look like for the fourth quarter? And then secondly, as far as digital banking goes, I know in the past, you referred to it as a double-digit grower. Is it fair to still think of that as a trajectory for that business on the top line?
只是想更深入地了解這些部分。首先,在支付領域,如果您去掉 LibertyX,第四季度的有機成長率會是多少?其次,就數位銀行而言,我知道您過去曾將其稱為兩位數的成長者。是否仍可將其視為該業務的營收軌跡?
Michael Dale Hayford - CEO & Director
Michael Dale Hayford - CEO & Director
Yes. Let me start with Digital Banking. Absolutely. It was a little light in the fourth quarter. We -- again, we had an extremely high renewal quarter, which drove extending our terms with our customers, which may be impacted revenue a little bit in the fourth quarter. But I don't think that there's anything in the trends to cause us concern. I do think, as Tim referenced, high single digit, low double digit in 2023 based on what we're seeing for digital banking. I think the overall -- without LibertyX, what do you get in mind.
是的。讓我先從數位銀行開始。絕對地。第四節比賽稍微輕鬆了一些。我們——再次,我們有一個非常高的續約季度,這推動了我們與客戶的合約期限的延長,這可能會對第四季度的收入產生一定影響。但我並不認為趨勢中有什麼值得我們擔心的。正如提姆所說,根據我們對數位銀行的了解,我確實認為 2023 年的成長速度將達到高個位數,低兩位數。我認為總體而言——如果沒有 LibertyX,你會想到什麼。
Timothy C. Oliver - CFO & Senior Executive VP
Timothy C. Oliver - CFO & Senior Executive VP
LibertyX is about $15 million to $20 million a quarter.
LibertyX 每季的營收約為 1,500 萬至 2,000 萬美元。
Charles Joseph Nabhan - MD & Analyst
Charles Joseph Nabhan - MD & Analyst
Got it. Got it. And then just as a quick follow-up, if I could refer back to some of your guidance from the prior quarter when you talked about $200 million in cost takeouts for $23 and $80 million to $100 million in dis-synergies. Is that still a ballpark range of thinking about $23 million?
知道了。知道了。然後作為一個快速的跟進,如果我可以回顧一下您在上一季的一些指導,當時您談到了 2 億美元的成本支出和 8000 萬到 1 億美元的不協同效應。這仍然是一個大約 2,300 萬美元的大概範圍嗎?
Timothy C. Oliver - CFO & Senior Executive VP
Timothy C. Oliver - CFO & Senior Executive VP
Yes. I think if you get your ruler out and that EBITDA, it's supposed to say causal walk, it says casual block. The calls a walk in the deck on Page 16. I tried to kind of roll all of these different efforts at cost takeout as they played out across this year and next because they don't necessarily calendarize to any 1 fiscal year.
是的。我認為,如果你拿出尺子,看看 EBITDA,它應該顯示因果波動,顯示偶然阻滯。在第 16 頁上宣布了這項決定。我試圖將所有這些不同的努力以成本扣除的方式滾動到今年和明年,因為它們不一定計入任何一個財政年度。
We did see $500 million or so of pressure from both the discrete items we called out, external forces and then inflation in aggregate. And we've got about $400 million of cost actions or permanent actions -- total actions done in 2022. About 60% of those were more temporal in nature. So training and discretionary spending hard not backfilling positions that have been opened, and we need to add back some costs there and about 40% of that cost out was permanent.
我們確實看到了大約 5 億美元的壓力,這些壓力來自我們所指出的個別項目、外部力量以及整體通貨膨脹。我們在 2022 年採取了總計約 4 億美元的成本行動或永久性行動。其中約 60% 的行動更具臨時性。因此,培訓和可自由支配的開支很難填補已經空缺的職位,我們需要在那裡增加一些成本,其中約 40% 的成本是永久性的。
Moving into '23 then, since we expect the external impacts and the inflation to moderate really considerably and in fact, a couple of the items turned around in our net benefits to us this year. We simply need to then cover the $100 million or so of wrap effect from the negative impacts last year and cover those temporal actions.
進入 23 年,我們預計外部影響和通貨膨脹將大幅緩和,事實上,今年我們的淨收益中有幾個項目已經好轉。我們只需要彌補去年負面影響產生的約 1 億美元的影響並彌補那些暫時的行動。
So if you add those together, it looks like in aggregate, about $350 million of permanent actions in 2023, which will then allow us to hit the numbers on this page. If there's -- we have talked about $80 million to $100 million of let's call it, negative synergies, dis-synergies associated with the spin transaction. We've presumed across this model that it will be when we split, it will be $80 million, about $40 million on each side of the NewCo.
因此,如果將這些加在一起,看起來總計約有 3.5 億美元的 2023 年永久行動,這將使我們能夠達到本頁上的數字。如果有——我們已經討論過與分拆交易相關的 8000 萬到 1 億美元的負面協同效應、不協同效應。我們透過這個模型推測,當我們拆分時,它將是 8000 萬美元,新公司雙方各約 4000 萬美元。
We think as we -- as the year plays out, we'll be able to keep that cost down and offset it across the year. So we found several opportunities for efficiency beyond the actions that we've described here to help keep that from being a negative at the time of the launch of the 2 companies.
我們認為,隨著時間的推移,我們將能夠降低成本並在全年抵消它。因此,除了我們在此描述的行動之外,我們還發現了一些提高效率的機會,以幫助避免在兩家公司成立時產生負面影響。
Operator
Operator
And we'll take a question from Erik Woodring with Morgan Stanley.
我們將回答摩根士丹利的艾瑞克‧伍德林 (Erik Woodring) 提出的問題。
Erik William Richard Woodring - Research Associate
Erik William Richard Woodring - Research Associate
You look at 2023, and it looks like you plan to do more with less, I guess. Meaning your revenue guide is flat to up 2%, and we talked through some of the factors there. EBITDA is up much nicer kind of around 9% at the midpoint. Can you maybe just talk us through, Tim, I know you've talked about kind of like high level, but maybe walk us through how you're thinking about gross margins and the puts and takes there in 2023 versus OpEx just to help us maybe where the leverage in the model comes from next year? And then I have a follow-up next.
我想,展望 2023 年,你似乎計劃用更少的資源做更多的事情。這意味著您的收入指南將持平或上漲 2%,我們討論了其中的一些因素。 EBITDA 的中期漲幅更為可觀,約 9%。提姆,您能否向我們簡單介紹一下,我知道您談論的是高水平的問題,但也許您可以向我們介紹一下您如何看待毛利率以及 2023 年與運營支出相比的投入和產出,以便幫助我們了解明年模型中的槓桿作用來自哪裡?接下來我有一個後續問題。
Timothy C. Oliver - CFO & Senior Executive VP
Timothy C. Oliver - CFO & Senior Executive VP
Yes, that's a good question because you'll remember that this year, most of the savings came at OpEx, right? It came from indirect costs because that was more quickly act there. It's going to be nearly entirely gross margin savings this year.
是的,這是個好問題,因為您會記得今年大部分節省都來自營運支出,對嗎?它來自間接成本,因為那裡的行動更快。今年幾乎全部都是毛利率的節省。
The actions that we took to requalify parts and to diversify our supply chain, the efforts we've made to reduce our transportation costs and other direct cost efficiencies are going to help pay back nicely in 2023. So I would expect most of the recovery to be in gross margin rather than OpEx.
我們為重新認證零件和多元化供應鏈所採取的措施,以及為降低運輸成本和其他直接成本效率所做的努力將有助於在 2023 年獲得豐厚回報。因此,我預計大部分復甦將體現在毛利率而非營運支出上。
Erik William Richard Woodring - Research Associate
Erik William Richard Woodring - Research Associate
Okay. Super. That's really helpful. And then as a follow-up, I just want to make sure I get some of these items, right? So I'm obviously guiding to some nice year-over-year improvements in EBITDA and free cash flow. EPS has held back a bit more regardless of the kind of change in disclosures. Is that mostly tax rate, interest rate -- sorry, tax rate, interest expense and share count. Was there anything else that I'm missing? I just want to make sure I kind of understand why that measure maybe as much as the other.
好的。極好的。這真的很有幫助。然後作為後續行動,我只是想確保我得到了其中一些物品,對嗎?因此,我顯然會引導 EBITDA 和自由現金流實現年比良好改善。無論揭露內容發生何種變化,每股盈餘都會有所下降。主要是稅率、利率——抱歉,是稅率、利息費用和股份數。我還遺漏了什麼嗎?我只是想確保我理解為什麼該措施可能與其他措施一樣重要。
Timothy C. Oliver - CFO & Senior Executive VP
Timothy C. Oliver - CFO & Senior Executive VP
You're exactly right. There's $0.29 associated with interest expense and there's a little more than $0.10 associated with both share count and tax rate. That's what that $0.40, $0.40 in aggregate.
你說得完全正確。其中利息支出為 0.29 美元,股份數量和稅率支出略高於 0.10 美元。這就是那 0.40 美元,總計 0.40 美元。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. And that does conclude the question-and-answer session. I'll now turn the call back over to Mr. Mike Hayford for any additional or closing remarks.
謝謝。問答環節到此結束。現在我將把電話轉回給麥克·海福德先生,請他發表任何補充或結束語。
Michael Dale Hayford - CEO & Director
Michael Dale Hayford - CEO & Director
Thank you. Thanks, everybody, for joining us today. I think our team is pretty excited about a strong finish to 2022. Obviously, we had some challenges at the start of the year and is a great big thank you to our whole team for working through the last 3 quarters and delivering a very solid 2022. We look forward to 2023, we expect it to be, again, a modestly challenging environment. This what's going on out there, but we feel very good about our products. We feel very good about our strategic initiatives, and we're looking forward to executing the spin-off later in 2023. Again, thank you for joining us today.
謝謝。感謝大家今天加入我們。我認為我們的團隊對 2022 年的強勁收官感到非常興奮。顯然,我們在年初遇到了一些挑戰,非常感謝我們整個團隊在過去三個季度的努力,並在 2022 年取得了非常紮實的成績。我們期待 2023 年,我們預計它將再次面臨適度挑戰。這就是目前的情況,但我們對我們的產品感覺非常良好。我們對我們的策略性舉措感到非常滿意,並期待在 2023 年稍後執行分拆。再次感謝您今天加入我們。
Operator
Operator
Well, thank you. And that does conclude today's conference. We do thank you for your participation. Have an excellent day.
好的,謝謝你。今天的會議到此結束。我們非常感謝您的參與。祝您有個愉快的一天。