芬塔 (VTR) 2026 Q1 法說會逐字稿

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you for standing by. My name is Bailey, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Ventas first-quarter 2026 earnings call. (Operator Instructions)

    感謝各位耐心等候。我叫 Bailey,今天將擔任本次電話會議的接線員。此刻,我謹代表公司歡迎各位參加 Ventas 2026 年第一季財報電話會議。(接線員指示)

  • I would now like to turn the call over to BJ Grant, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. You may begin.

    現在我想將電話交給投資人關係資深副總裁 BJ Grant。您可以開始了。

  • B J Grant - Investor Relations

    B J Grant - Investor Relations

  • Thank you, Bailey. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the Ventas first-quarter 2026 results conference call. Yesterday, we issued our first-quarter 2026 earnings release, presentation materials, and supplemental information package, which are available on the Ventas website at ir.ventasreit.com.

    謝謝你,Bailey。各位早安,歡迎參加 Ventas 2026 年第一季業績電話會議。昨天,我們已發布 2026 年第一季財報新聞稿、簡報資料以及補充資訊套件,皆可於 Ventas 網站 ir.ventasreit.com 取得。

  • As a reminder, remarks today may include forward-looking statements and other matters. Forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, and a variety of topics may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in such statements. For a more detailed discussion of those factors, please refer to our earnings release for this quarter and to our most recent SEC filings, all of which are available on the Ventas website.

    提醒各位,今天的發言可能包含前瞻性陳述及其他事項。前瞻性陳述受風險與不確定性影響,且多項因素可能導致實際結果與該等陳述所預期者出現重大差異。關於這些因素的更詳細討論,請參閱本季財報新聞稿以及我們最新的 SEC 申報文件,以上資料皆可於 Ventas 網站取得。

  • Certain non-GAAP financial measures will also be discussed on this call, and for a reconciliation of these measures to the most closely comparable GAAP measures, please refer to our supplemental information package posted on the Investor Relations website.

    本次電話會議亦將討論若干非 GAAP 財務衡量指標;如需將這些指標與最可比的 GAAP 指標進行調節(reconciliation),請參閱張貼於投資人關係網站的補充資訊套件。

  • And with that, I'll turn the call over to Debra A. Cafaro, Chairman and CEO of Ventas.

    接下來,我將把電話交給 Ventas 董事長兼執行長 Debra A. Cafaro。

  • Debra Cafaro - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Debra Cafaro - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you, BJ, and good morning to all of our shareholders and other participants. I want to welcome you to the Ventas first quarter 2026 earnings call. Ventas continues to drive growth and outperformance as a leading participant in the longevity economy. We're already into our fifth consecutive year of double-digit annual growth in our senior housing operating portfolio or SHOP. Even more exciting, this year represents a new and positive inflection point when demographic demand jumps and growth remains elevated for over a decade.

    謝謝你,BJ,也向所有股東及其他與會者道早安。歡迎各位參加 Ventas 2026 年第一季財報電話會議。作為長壽經濟(longevity economy)的領先參與者,Ventas 持續推動成長並展現優於同業的表現。我們的高齡住宅營運組合(SHOP)已連續第五年達成年度兩位數成長。更令人振奮的是,今年代表一個新的正向拐點:人口結構帶動的需求將躍升,且成長動能將在未來十多年維持高檔。

  • Our business and team have been built to meet this moment and seize the unprecedented opportunity for multiyear growth and value creation. With SHOP as our engine, Ventas is now a $56 billion, S&P 500 company with a portfolio of over 1,400 properties serving a large and growing aging population. We have developed a unique brand that stands for delivering for stakeholders and winning together. Our excellent first quarter results and improved full year outlook demonstrate our competitive advantages, the impact of our differentiated platform, strong execution of our 1-2-3 strategy and our momentum.

    我們的業務與團隊已為此刻打造完成,將把握這個前所未有的多年期成長與價值創造機會。以 SHOP 作為引擎,Ventas 現已成為市值 560 億美元、納入 S&P 500 的公司,投資組合涵蓋超過 1,400 項物業,服務龐大且持續成長的高齡人口。我們建立了獨特的品牌,代表為利害關係人交付成果並攜手共贏。我們優異的第一季業績與上調的全年展望,展現了我們的競爭優勢、差異化平台的影響力、1-2-3 策略的強勁執行力以及我們的動能。

  • In the quarter, Ventas delivered 9% year-over-year growth in total same-store property NOI and normalized FFO per share. SHOP NOI grew over 15% and US occupancy increased 370 basis points, fueled by broad-based demand and our Ventas OI initiatives. Accretion from senior housing investment activity further contributed to our growth in the quarter, showing our strategy in action. And notably, our liquidity reached record levels, and our financial position continued to strengthen.

    本季,Ventas 的總同店物業 NOI 與標準化每股 FFO 皆年增 9%。SHOP NOI 成長超過 15%,美國入住率提升 370 個基點,受惠於廣泛的需求以及我們的 Ventas OI 計畫。高齡住宅投資活動帶來的增益(accretion)亦進一步推動本季成長,展現我們策略的落地執行。值得一提的是,我們的流動性達到歷史新高,財務狀況持續強化。

  • Based on our first-quarter results and our confidence, we have improved our outlook for the full year, increasing our midpoint guidance for FFO per share by $0.03 to $3.86 per share, led by SHOP same-store growth of 16%. As a result of our strategy and execution, we have already grown senior housing to over 60% of our business, and our communities now serve nearly 100,000 residents. In a large and highly fragmented sector where most operators run 10 or fewer communities, our platform gives us unique advantages to drive outperformance at scale through data and experiential insights. With our collaborative approach, Ventas OI also attracts many experienced operators who want to manage our communities and benefit from Ventas' aligned approach, people and platform, and we're just getting started.

    基於第一季表現與我們的信心,我們上調全年展望,將每股 FFO 指引中位數提高 0.03 美元至每股 3.86 美元,主要由 SHOP 同店 16% 的成長所帶動。受惠於我們的策略與執行,我們的高齡住宅業務占比已提升至超過 60%,社區目前服務近 10 萬名住戶。在一個規模龐大且高度分散的產業中,多數營運商僅經營 10 個或更少社區;我們的平台透過數據與體驗洞察,讓我們能以規模化方式推動優於同業的表現,具備獨特優勢。透過協作式做法,Ventas OI 也吸引許多資深營運商,希望管理我們的社區並受益於 Ventas 一致對齊的做法、人才與平台,而我們才正要開始。

  • In the investment market for SHOP, we have an outstanding private-to-public arbitrage opportunity. We have already closed $1.7 billion of attractive senior housing investments this year and over $6 billion since the beginning of 2024. Our number-one capital allocation priority remains US SHOP communities that meet our strategic framework and can deliver unlevered IRRs in the double digit to mid-teens range at pricing below replacement cost. Interestingly, because there is significant existing and new investor interest in senior housing for all the obvious reasons, we are seeing more owners and potential sellers bringing assets to market and engaging in conversations with us about transacting. This trend is expanding our pipeline significantly.

    在 SHOP 的投資市場中,我們擁有極具吸引力的私有轉公有(private-to-public)套利機會。今年以來我們已完成 17 億美元具吸引力的高齡住宅投資,自 2024 年初以來累計超過 60 億美元。我們的第一資本配置優先事項仍是符合策略框架的美國 SHOP 社區,並能在低於重置成本(replacement cost)的定價下,提供雙位數至中十位數區間的無槓桿 IRR。有趣的是,由於高齡住宅因各種顯而易見的原因而受到既有與新投資人高度關注,我們看到更多業主與潛在賣方將資產推向市場,並與我們洽談交易。此趨勢正顯著擴大我們的案源管線。

  • We are confident in our ability to capture more than our fair share of desirable deals because of our momentum in the market and our competitive moat. We have now increased our 2026 investment volume guidance to $3 billion. We are focused on increasing our SHOP business organically and externally to drive our forward enterprise growth rate and serve the nearly 70 million baby boomers who start turning 80 in 2026. In the next 5 years alone, this group will grow nearly 30%.

    我們有信心憑藉市場動能與競爭護城河,取得超過「應得份額」的優質交易。我們現已將 2026 年投資量指引上調至 30 億美元。我們聚焦透過內生成長與外部擴張來提升 SHOP 業務,以推動未來企業成長率,並服務約 7,000 萬名在 2026 年開始邁入 80 歲的嬰兒潮世代。僅在未來 5 年內,這個族群就將成長近 30%。

  • Yet in the first quarter, senior housing construction starts totaled only about 1,500 new units. And total senior housing communities under construction remained at historic lows. With at least a 3-year start to finish development cycle, these favorable demand supply trends provide our advantaged platform with compelling and durable tailwinds. The Ventas team is unified and enthusiastic about outperforming at scale and the multiyear growth and value creation opportunity ahead. We are excited about our improved outlook for 2026 and the setup for the coming years as we pursue our mission to help people live longer, healthier and happier lives. With our unique brand standing for commitment to each other and our stakeholders, we are in it to win it together.

    然而在第一季,高齡住宅的新開工量合計僅約 1,500 個新單位,而在建中的高齡住宅社區總量仍處於歷史低位。由於開發從開工到完工至少需要 3 年週期,這些有利的供需趨勢為我們具優勢的平台帶來強勁且可持續的順風。Ventas 團隊團結一致、充滿熱情,致力於以規模化方式創造優於同業的表現,並把握未來多年期的成長與價值創造機會。我們對 2026 年上調後的展望以及未來幾年的布局感到振奮,並將持續追求我們的使命:幫助人們活得更長、更健康、更快樂。憑藉我們獨特的品牌所代表的彼此承諾與對利害關係人的承諾,我們將攜手共贏、全力以赴。

  • In closing, I want to recognize our admired colleague, Pete Bulgarelli. Pete is retiring after an extraordinary four decade career in commercial real estate and eight years leading our OM&R business with excellence and integrity. On behalf of all of us at Ventas, I thank Pete and wish him every continued success and happiness.

    最後,我想表彰我們備受敬重的同事 Pete Bulgarelli。Pete 在商用不動產領域擁有非凡的四十年職涯,並以卓越與正直領導我們的 OM&R 業務八年,如今即將退休。我謹代表 Ventas 全體同仁感謝 Pete,並祝福他未來一切順利、幸福美滿。

  • With that, I'm pleased to turn the call over to Justin.

    接下來,我很高興把電話交給 Justin。

  • J. Justin Hutchens - Executive Vice President - Senior Housing, Chief Investment Officer

    J. Justin Hutchens - Executive Vice President - Senior Housing, Chief Investment Officer

  • Thank you, Debbie. I'm pleased to join you today to discuss another strong quarter of execution in senior housing, reflecting continued momentum across both organic performance and external growth in our SHOP portfolio. I'll start with SHOP performance, then provide updates on our active asset management and the full-year outlook and conclude with investments and capital deployment.

    謝謝你,Debbie。我很高興今天與各位一同討論高齡住宅業務又一個執行強勁的季度,反映我們 SHOP 組合在內生表現與外部成長兩方面皆持續具備動能。我將先談 SHOP 的表現,接著更新我們積極的資產管理與全年展望,最後以投資與資本部署作結。

  • Starting with SHOP, the-first quarter results reflect both strong market fundamentals and sharp execution across the portfolio. In the first quarter, SHOP same-store NOI increased over 15% year over year, kicking off our fifth consecutive year of double-digit NOI growth. This is driven by a powerful combination of occupancy growth, pricing strength and operating leverage and increasingly supported by the Ventas OI initiatives we are deploying with our operators.

    先從 SHOP 談起,第一季結果同時反映強勁的市場基本面,以及我們在整體組合中的精準執行。第一季,SHOP 同店 NOI 年增超過 15%,開啟我們連續第五年兩位數 NOI 成長。這主要由入住率提升、定價力道與營運槓桿的強力組合所驅動,並且愈來愈多地受到我們與營運商共同推動的 Ventas OI 計畫所支持。

  • Occupancy continues to be the primary driver of performance. Same-store average occupancy increased 310 basis points year over year, reaching 90.4%. Performance this quarter was particularly broad-based. With so many operators contributing to our success, there are too many to name. The results in the US portfolio were especially strong, where same-store occupancy increased 370 basis points year-over-year and outperformed the NIC top 99 markets by 150 basis points.

    入住率仍是表現的主要驅動因素。同店平均入住率年增 310 個基點,達到 90.4%。本季表現特別呈現廣泛性。由於有太多營運商共同貢獻成功,難以一一點名。美國組合的結果尤其強勁,同店入住率年增 370 個基點,並以 150 個基點的幅度優於 NIC 前 99 大市場。

  • On pricing, RevPOR increased 5% year over year, reflecting strong in-house rate increases that are running at nearly 8% as well as continued improvement in street rates across geographies, operators and product types. Operating expenses increased 5.8% year-over-year, which was largely driven by higher occupancy levels and winter storm-related costs. Net-net, NOI grew over 15% year over year, and we delivered meaningful operating leverage with NOI margins expanding 170 basis points year over year to 30% and incremental margins at 50%. As we continue to deploy our active asset management, we're executing in close partnership with our best-in-class operators. And with a talented and recently expanded Ventas SHOP team that is driving performance at the unit, community and portfolio level.

    在定價方面,RevPOR 年增 5%,反映強勁的內部調價(in-house rate increases)接近 8%,以及各地區、各營運商與各產品類型的市價(street rates)持續改善。營運費用年增 5.8%,主要由較高的入住率水準與冬季風暴相關成本所帶動。整體而言,NOI 年增超過 15%,我們也實現顯著的營運槓桿:NOI 利潤率年增 170 個基點至 30%,增量利潤率(incremental margins)達 50%。隨著我們持續推進積極的資產管理,我們正與一流的營運商緊密合作執行;同時,憑藉一支才華洋溢且近期擴編的 Ventas SHOP 團隊,在單位、社區與組合層級推動績效。

  • Across the portfolio, we're focused on community level execution alongside our operating partners, supported by the continued evolution of Ventas OI. We are deploying targeted initiatives, including refresh CapEx, price volume optimization guidance and a sharp focus on sales culture with the ultimate goal of achieving zero loss revenue days in our highly occupied communities. We're also implementing unit level sales strategies supported by boots on the ground site visits from our team, and we're doing it in collaboration with operators, delivering strong revenue and NOI growth while ensuring the senior living value proposition is realized for residents and families through the care, services and peace of mind provided in our communities.

    在整體組合中,我們聚焦於與營運夥伴共同推進社區層級的執行,並由 Ventas OI 的持續演進提供支援。我們正部署具針對性的措施,包括翻新資本支出(refresh CapEx)、價量最佳化(price volume optimization)指引,以及對銷售文化的高度聚焦,最終目標是在高入住率社區達成零流失營收日(zero loss revenue days)。我們也在推行單位層級的銷售策略,由我們團隊進行實地走訪(boots on the ground site visits)提供支援,並與營運商協作推進,在帶來強勁營收與 NOI 成長的同時,確保住戶與家庭能透過我們社區所提供的照護、服務與安心感,真正體現高齡生活的價值主張。

  • This combination of active asset management and structural demand tailwinds has led us to increase our 2026 SHOP outlook, including same-store NOI growth of 16% at the midpoint, which is up from 15%. This is driven by a higher expectation of occupancy growth of approximately 300 basis points, which is leading to increased revenue growth expectations of approximately 8.75%. As we've discussed previously, the key selling season runs from May through September. While we enter this season in a favorable position because of the first quarter strength, our success during the key selling season will determine the full-year outcome.

    這種主動式資產管理與結構性需求順風的結合,促使我們上調 2026 年 SHOP 展望,其中同店 NOI 成長率在中位數為 16%,高於先前的 15%。這主要來自我們對入住率成長約 300 個基點的更高預期,進而帶動營收成長預期約 8.75%。如同我們先前所討論,關鍵銷售旺季為 5 月至 9 月。雖然我們因第一季的強勁表現而以有利態勢進入旺季,但我們在關鍵銷售季的表現將決定全年結果。

  • Looking ahead, there's real momentum building for us to expand on several key fronts. Over recent years, we've made intentional strategic moves to ensure Ventas stands ready to harness the growing surge in senior housing demand. Because of those efforts, we're confident that we'll continue to drive solid organic growth fueled by ongoing increases in occupancy and the operating leverage we are achieving across the SHOP portfolio. And with our US communities averaging about 87% occupancy, there's still significant runway for us to continue to drive outperformance. Importantly, the strength we're seeing in the SHOP performance gives us confidence to continue leaning into external growth.

    展望未來,我們在多個關鍵面向確實正在累積擴張動能。過去幾年,我們有意識地採取策略性行動,確保 Ventas 已準備就緒,能夠掌握高齡住宅需求日益增長的浪潮。基於這些努力,我們有信心將持續推動穩健的內生成長,動能來自入住率的持續提升,以及我們在 SHOP 投資組合中所實現的營運槓桿效益。此外,我們在美國社區的平均入住率約為 87%,仍有相當大的空間可持續推動超越同業的表現。重要的是,我們在 SHOP 表現上看到的強勁態勢,讓我們更有信心持續加大外部成長布局。

  • Turning to investments,2026 is off to an excellent start as we execute our external growth strategy with focus and intention. Year to date, we have completed $1.7 billion of high-quality senior housing acquisitions in the US, building on the fast start we saw in January. Based on this activity and our outlook for the remainder of the year, we are increasing our senior housing-focused investment guidance from $2.5 billion to $3 billion for 2026.

    談到投資,2026 年在我們專注且有計畫地執行外部成長策略下,開局表現非常出色。今年迄今,我們已在美國完成 17 億美元的高品質高齡住宅收購,延續我們在 1 月所見的快速起步。基於這些活動以及我們對今年剩餘期間的展望,我們將 2026 年以高齡住宅為主的投資指引自 25 億美元上調至 30 億美元。

  • While there is heightened interest in senior housing investments as additional capital flows into the sector, Ventas remains competitively advantaged. Notably, of the $1.7 billion of investments closed year-to-date, more than 90% were relationship-driven. Over 60% were sourced off market and more than 40% were completed with repeat sellers.

    儘管隨著更多資金流入該產業,高齡住宅投資的關注度升高,Ventas 仍具備競爭優勢。值得注意的是,在今年迄今已完成的 17 億美元投資中,超過 90% 來自關係導向的交易。超過 60% 為場外來源(off market),且超過 40% 由重複賣方完成。

  • Since the fourth quarter of 2024, we have now completed over $5.7 billion of senior housing acquisitions, adding more than 17,000 units to the SHOP portfolio. These investments have been carefully selected to closely align with our right market, right asset, right operator framework, and they are performing in line with our underwritten expectations. We are buying communities that enhance portfolio quality, are located in attractive markets with strong demand growth, are insulated from future supply risk and deliver low- to mid-teens unlevered IRRs.

    自 2024 年第四季以來,我們已完成超過 57 億美元的高齡住宅收購,為 SHOP 投資組合新增逾 17,000 個單位。這些投資皆經審慎挑選,以高度符合我們「正確市場、正確資產、正確營運商」的框架,且其表現符合我們承作時的預期。我們收購的社區可提升投資組合品質,位於需求成長強勁的具吸引力市場,能降低未來供給風險,並帶來低至中十位數的無槓桿 IRR。

  • Our investment strategy and team are focused on senior housing investment opportunities with different combinations of growth and yield that can produce attractive risk-adjusted returns. For example, earlier this month, we completed a $540 million acquisition of the Revel portfolio, which represents a value-add lease-up opportunity at scale. This investment consists of newly built luxury independent living communities located in affluent high-growth markets across the Western US.

    我們的投資策略與團隊聚焦於具備不同成長與收益組合的高齡住宅投資機會,以產生具吸引力的風險調整後報酬。舉例而言,本月稍早我們完成以 5.4 億美元收購 Revel 投資組合,這代表一項具規模的增值型(value-add)出租率提升(lease-up)機會。該投資包含新建的豪華獨立生活社區,分布於美國西部多個富裕且高成長市場。

  • With average in-place occupancy in the mid-70% range, the combination of the newer assets, high barrier markets and significant embedded occupancy upside creates a highly attractive growth profile. This portfolio was acquired at a significant discount to replacement cost, even with its quality scale and amenity set. The seller elected to retain a 25% interest in the portfolio to share in the strategic and financial benefits of implementing Ventas OI initiatives across the portfolio to drive unlevered IRRs in the mid-teens. Transactions like this underscore the advantages of scale, relationships, operating expertise and decisiveness in today's market.

    在現有平均入住率約為 70% 中段的情況下,較新的資產、高進入門檻市場,以及顯著的內含入住率上行空間相結合,形成極具吸引力的成長輪廓。即使考量其高品質規模與設施配套,該投資組合的收購價格仍相較重置成本有顯著折價。賣方選擇保留該投資組合 25% 的權益,以共同分享在整體投資組合導入 Ventas OI 計畫所帶來的策略與財務效益,並推動無槓桿 IRR 達到中十位數。此類交易凸顯在當前市場中,規模、關係、營運專業與決策果斷所帶來的優勢。

  • Excluding the Revel transaction, our remaining senior housing investments completed so far in 2026 are expected to generate a 6.9% year-one NOI yield and low- to mid-teens unlevered IRRs. These investments also allow us to expand our operator relationships. Our Ventas platform provides the capabilities to manage multiple operators at scale, enabling us to retain strong in-place operators and support their growth. Looking ahead, we plan to continue to pursue attractive senior housing investments that combine durable in-place cash flow, embedded growth and attractive risk-adjusted returns.

    不含 Revel 交易在內,我們於 2026 年迄今完成的其餘高齡住宅投資,預期可帶來首年 6.9% 的 NOI 收益率,以及低至中十位數的無槓桿 IRR。這些投資也讓我們得以擴展與營運商的合作關係。我們的 Ventas 平台具備以規模管理多家營運商的能力,使我們能保留現有優質營運商並支持其成長。展望未來,我們計畫持續尋求具吸引力的高齡住宅投資,結合穩健的現有現金流、內含成長,以及具吸引力的風險調整後報酬。

  • In closing, we are encouraged by the performance of the SHOP business in the first quarter and excited about the opportunities ahead. We are executing from a position of strength with strong organic growth, compelling external investment opportunities and a long runway for value creation.

    最後,我們對第一季 SHOP 業務的表現感到鼓舞,也對未來機會充滿期待。我們在強勁的內生成長、具吸引力的外部投資機會,以及長期價值創造空間的支撐下,以優勢態勢持續推進。

  • With that, I'll turn it over to Bob.

    接下來我把時間交給 Bob。

  • Robert Probst - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Robert Probst - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Thank you, Justin, and good morning, everyone. I'll cover three areas this morning. First, our financial results for Q1; second, our balance sheet and capital activity; and finally, our updated outlook for 2026. Starting with our overall enterprise performance, we delivered a strong start to the year led by over 15% same-store cash NOI growth in our SHOP portfolio. Normalized FFO for the first quarter was $0.94 per share, up 9% year over year, driven by total company same-store property level growth of nearly 9% and accretive senior housing investments.

    謝謝你,Justin,各位早安。今天早上我將涵蓋三個面向:第一,我們第一季的財務結果;第二,我們的資產負債表與資本活動;最後,我們更新後的 2026 年展望。先從整體企業表現談起,在 SHOP 投資組合帶動下,我們以同店現金 NOI 成長超過 15% 的表現,為今年開出強勁的起步。第一季標準化 FFO 為每股 0.94 美元,年增 9%,主要受惠於全公司同店物業層級成長接近 9%,以及具增益效果(accretive)的高齡住宅投資。

  • Our outpatient medical and research portfolio or OMAR, delivered 2.4% same-store cash NOI growth, led by outpatient medical growing 3.1% year over year. Occupancy in outpatient medical reached almost 91% in the first quarter, a 50basis point increase year-over-year marks the seventh consecutive quarter of occupancy growth. Our triple net segment grew same-store cash NOI by 1.6% in the quarter, benefiting from the 35% Brookdale cash rent escalator, which went into effect January 1, 2026. This triple net result is in line with our expectations and supportive of our confirmed full-year guidance for the segment.

    我們的門診醫療與研究投資組合(OMAR)同店現金 NOI 成長 2.4%,其中門診醫療年增 3.1% 為主要帶動因素。第一季門診醫療入住率接近 91%,較去年同期提升 50 個基點,並創下連續第七季入住率成長。我們的三重淨租(triple net)部門本季同店現金 NOI 成長 1.6%,受惠於 Brookdale 35% 的現金租金調升機制,自 2026 年 1 月 1 日起生效。此三重淨租結果符合我們預期,並支持我們對該部門已確認的全年指引。

  • Turning next to our balance sheet, our balance sheet continues to strengthen as a result of organic SHOP growth and equity funded senior housing investments. Net debt to EBITDA improved to 5 times at quarter end, a 20-basis point sequential improvement with further improvement expected through the balance of the year. Liquidity is strong with $5.5 billion available at the end of the first quarter, providing Ventas with significant financial flexibility.

    接著談資產負債表。受惠於 SHOP 的內生成長以及以股權資金支持的高齡住宅投資,我們的資產負債表持續強化。季末淨負債對 EBITDA 降至 5 倍,較前一季改善 20 個基點,且預期在今年剩餘期間仍將進一步改善。流動性維持強勁,第一季末可用資金達 55 億美元,為 Ventas 提供顯著的財務彈性。

  • Our investment momentum has continued into 2026. To fund this growth, we raised approximately $2.4 billion of equity designated for 2026 investment activity, including $800 million settled during the first quarter, and $1.6 billion currently available through forward equity sales agreements.

    我們的投資動能延續至 2026 年。為支持此成長,我們籌集約 24 億美元、指定用於 2026 年投資活動的股權資金,其中 8 億美元已於第一季完成交割,另有 16 億美元目前可透過遠期股權銷售協議取得。

  • Given our encouraging start to the year, we are improving our outlook for 2026. We now expect normalized FFO per share to range from $3.82 to $3.89 or $3.86 at the midpoint, a $0.03 increase from our prior outlook. Bridging from our prior guidance midpoint: The $0.03 increase is driven by stronger organic property performance led by SHOP and accretive senior housing investment activity, which together contributed $0.04 per share increase. These favorable items are partially offset by $0.01 from the higher forward interest rate curve. We're also increasing our total company same-store cash NOI growth outlook to nearly 10% at the midpoint, resulting from a 100-basis point higher SHOP midpoint of 16%. More fulsome discussion of our guidance assumptions can be found in our Q1 supplemental and earnings presentation posted to our website.

    鑑於今年良好的開局,我們上調 2026 年展望。我們目前預期標準化 FFO 每股將介於 3.82 至 3.89 美元之間,中位數為 3.86 美元,較先前展望上調 0.03 美元。以先前指引中位數銜接:這 0.03 美元的上調,主要由更強勁的內生物業表現(以 SHOP 為主)以及具增益效果的高齡住宅投資活動所帶動,兩者合計貢獻每股增加 0.04 美元。上述利多部分被遠期利率曲線上移所帶來的 0.01 美元影響所抵銷。我們也將全公司同店現金 NOI 成長展望上調至中位數接近 10%,主要來自 SHOP 中位數提高 100 個基點至 16%。關於指引假設的更完整討論,請參閱我們發布於官網的第一季補充資料與法說簡報。

  • To close, we are very pleased with our start to 2026. The first quarter reinforces the strength of our organic performance, the durability of senior housing demand and the embedded growth profile of our portfolio.

    總結來說,我們對 2026 年的開局感到非常滿意。第一季再次印證我們內生表現的強勁、高齡住宅需求的韌性,以及我們投資組合所具備的內含成長特性。

  • With that, I'll turn the call back to the operator.

    接下來我把電話會議交回給主持人。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Julien Blouin, Goldman Sachs.

    (主持人指示)Julien Blouin,高盛。

  • Julien Blouin - Analyst

    Julien Blouin - Analyst

  • I just wanted to touch maybe on the $540 million Revel investment. I guess, in your view, what has sort of driven the underperformance of that portfolio, keeping it in the mid-70% range. And then as we think of how Ventas OI sort of plugs in there, what are sort of the lowest hanging fruit that Ventas can sort of allow you to improve? And what are some of the longer-term gains that the platform gives you?

    我想稍微談一下 5.4 億美元的 Revel 投資。我想請教,依你們的看法,是什麼因素導致該投資組合表現不如預期,使入住率維持在 70% 中段的水準?另外,當我們思考 Ventas OI 如何導入其中時,Ventas 能協助你們改善的「最容易摘取的果實」有哪些?以及從長期來看,這個平台能帶來哪些更長期的效益?

  • J. Justin Hutchens - Executive Vice President - Senior Housing, Chief Investment Officer

    J. Justin Hutchens - Executive Vice President - Senior Housing, Chief Investment Officer

  • It's Justin. Great question. So I'll step back a little bit, answer your question, give you a little history and then some of the attributes of the acquisition and the opportunity ahead. So this is a portfolio that was built by Wolf Company, which is a large multifamily developer with a very long history. They're based in Scottsdale, they entered this senior housing sector with this really exciting development because this is a -- it's a resort-like independent living product that would appeal to a very active senior, highly amenitized, luxury setting. And at the beginning, when they entered the space, they used third-party management. And when they got into it, they realized that they were probably better off setting up their own platform. So they set up Revel, and that was a slow start.

    我是 Justin。問得很好。所以我先稍微退一步,回答你的問題,提供一點背景,然後談談這次收購的一些特點以及未來的機會。這是一個由 Wolf Company 建立的投資組合;Wolf Company 是一家大型多戶住宅開發商,歷史非常悠久。他們總部在史考茲代爾,因為這個非常令人振奮的開發案而進入高齡住宅領域——這是一種度假村式的獨立生活產品,會吸引非常活躍的高齡族群,具備高度完善的設施、豪華的環境。一開始他們進入這個領域時使用第三方管理。但在實際投入後,他們意識到建立自有平台可能更合適。於是他們成立了 Revel,而那一開始進展較慢。

  • Now, they have a team that is very talented, really across the board. One of the -- it's probably obvious that one of the reasons they want to work with Ventas is the Ventas OI platform and the ability also to stay into this joint venture, so they could participate in some of the upside. And what we like about it is the quality of the assets are really high. We're buying at below replacement costs. We see operational upside that's significant, and it's us and the Revel team and our team already been on the ground, and they're -- we're seeing pretty immediate sales upside. We're catching the portfolio at a time where it has pretty good momentum already. We're facing a forward market that has 1,200 basis points of net demand over the next few years. So we're playing into tailwinds as well. And so when you put the whole package together, it's a really exciting high-growth investment opportunity, really high-quality assets, sourced completely off market, and it should generate really good returns for us moving forward.

    現在,他們的團隊非常有才華,幾乎各方面都很強。其中一個——應該很明顯——他們想與 Ventas 合作的原因之一,是 Ventas 的 OI 平台,以及也能繼續留在這個合資架構中,讓他們可以參與部分上行空間。我們喜歡的是資產品質非常高。我們的買入價格低於重置成本。我們看到顯著的營運上行空間,而且我們、Revel 團隊以及我們的團隊都已經在現場——我們看到相當即時的銷售上行。我們是在投資組合已經具備不錯動能的時間點切入。面對未來市場,接下來幾年淨需求將有 1,200 個基點的增長。因此我們也在順風環境中前進。把整個組合放在一起看,這是一個非常令人振奮的高成長投資機會:高品質資產、完全場外取得,並且未來應能為我們帶來非常好的報酬。

  • Julien Blouin - Analyst

    Julien Blouin - Analyst

  • And then I guess, just more generally on the current transaction environment. I mean, how do you describe the current level of competition and capital chasing transactions? Are you seeing a lot more bidders showing up when you are participating in sort of more widely brokered opportunities. And are you starting to see that reflected in some of the cap rates? And have you changed sort of your expectations at all on the cap rate front for the rest of the year?

    接著我想更一般性地問一下目前的交易環境。你會如何形容目前競爭程度以及追逐交易的資金量?當你參與較廣泛由仲介推介的機會時,是否看到更多競標者出現?你是否開始看到這反映在某些資本化率(cap rates)上?另外,你是否在今年剩餘時間對 cap rate 的預期有任何調整?

  • J. Justin Hutchens - Executive Vice President - Senior Housing, Chief Investment Officer

    J. Justin Hutchens - Executive Vice President - Senior Housing, Chief Investment Officer

  • So I'm going to step back again. It's another great question. But just important to frame it. So we just updated our investment guidance from $2.5 billion to $3 billion. We're doing this in a period where there is more interest in the sector. There's clearly new investors. There's a wide variety of PE that's entered the space, both large and small. Owner operators, other REITs, there's institutional capital.

    我再退一步說。這又是個很好的問題,但先把框架講清楚很重要。我們剛把投資指引從 25 億美元上調到 30 億美元。我們是在一個對該產業興趣增加的時期做這件事。顯然有新投資人進來。有各式各樣的私募股權(PE)進入這個領域,無論大型或小型。也有自有營運商、其他 REIT,以及機構資本。

  • And with that in mind, we've updated our investment guidance to the highest we've had in three years with high confidence. And the reason we can do that is because of all the advantages that Ventas has. We have our competitive moat, which includes the Ventas OI platform, the ability to manage operators at scale in a highly fragmented sector. We're up to 44 operators now.

    基於這些背景,我們把投資指引更新到三年來最高,而且信心很高。我們之所以能做到,是因為 Ventas 擁有各種優勢。我們有競爭護城河,其中包括 Ventas 的 OI 平台,以及在高度分散的產業中以規模管理營運商的能力。我們目前已經有 44 家營運商。

  • When we enter deals, we had no financing contingency. The liquidity, obviously, is very high. Our track record of executing on deals has been excellent, and I mentioned in the prepared remarks that 90% are relationship-oriented, 60% off market, 40% repeat sellers. We have a growing pipeline, the broader market has -- is bringing more to the market as well. And we just have a track record of delivering what we say we're going to do.

    當我們進入交易時,我們沒有融資條件(financing contingency)。流動性顯然非常充裕。我們在交易執行上的紀錄一直很出色;我在事先準備的發言中也提到,90% 是關係導向,60% 是場外交易,40% 來自重複賣方。我們的案源管線在成長,整體市場也把更多資產帶到市場上。而我們一直有把我們說要做的事情落實交付的紀錄。

  • I mentioned on the previous call that we had -- there's a drift down in cap rates from the 7s and into the 6s. We printed in our supplemental around 6.5 all-in and that includes the Revel deal. It's 6.9 without. When you look at the rest of the pipeline throughout the year, we're expecting high 6s moving forward and that includes a mix of value-add and high-performing communities with upside moving forward. One thing that's interesting is that even though the cap rates have drifted down a bit, our IRRs have remained solid, and that's because of Revel and some other value-add opportunities we have that's delivering growth for us.

    我在上一通電話會議提到,cap rate 從 7% 區間往下漂移到 6% 區間。我們在補充資料中列示的全包約在 6.5%,其中包含 Revel 這筆交易;若不含 Revel 則是 6.9%。看今年其餘時間的管線,我們預期未來會落在 6% 後段(high 6s),其中包含價值提升(value-add)與高表現社區的組合,並且仍有上行空間。有趣的是,即使 cap rate 略為下滑,我們的 IRR 仍維持穩健,這是因為 Revel 以及我們其他一些 value-add 機會正在為我們帶來成長。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jim Kammert, Evercore.

    Jim Kammert,Evercore。

  • James Kammert - Equity Analyst

    James Kammert - Equity Analyst

  • Justin, I think you mentioned ExPor was 5.8% this quarter, if I'm not mistaken. But just generically, how much of that would you say is a recurring food and labor maybe versus temporal say, sales commissions or weather?

    Justin,我記得你提到本季 ExPor 是 5.8%,如果我沒記錯的話。但更一般地說,你會認為其中有多少是可持續的餐飲與人力成本之類的因素,相對於較短期的因素,例如銷售佣金或天氣?

  • J. Justin Hutchens - Executive Vice President - Senior Housing, Chief Investment Officer

    J. Justin Hutchens - Executive Vice President - Senior Housing, Chief Investment Officer

  • Yes. It's -- actually, it wasn't Por. It was total expense was at 5.8%. And there's -- it was -- a lot of it was weather-related. We had a little bit of volume impact -- and then the full-year guide is 5.5% and that includes the weather-related expense in the first quarter, but also some volume impacts throughout the rest of the year.

    是的。其實——那不是 Por,而是總費用(total expense)是 5.8%。其中——很大一部分與天氣有關。我們也受到一些入住量(volume)的影響——而全年指引是 5.5%,其中包含第一季的天氣相關費用,但也包含今年其餘時間的一些入住量影響。

  • Robert Probst - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Robert Probst - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes, the principal drive (technical difficulty) the OpEx guide from 5% to 5.5% is volume, Jim. It's more opportunity.

    是的,把 OpEx 指引從 5% 拉到 5.5% 的主要驅動因素(技術問題)是入住量,Jim。這代表更多機會。

  • James Kammert - Equity Analyst

    James Kammert - Equity Analyst

  • That's helpful. And do you think -- I mean, who knows, right, with labor costs, et cetera, how does Ventas educate its senior housing residents regarding that sort of expense dynamic vis-a-vis probable price increases? Do you think residents understand that?

    這很有幫助。那你覺得——我是說,誰也說不準,對吧,像人力成本等等——Ventas 如何向其高齡住宅住戶說明這種費用變動的動態,並與可能的價格上調相對應?你覺得住戶能理解嗎?

  • Debra Cafaro - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Debra Cafaro - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Jim, it's Debbie. So one important point to start the conversation is that the labor market has been pretty constructive. And so that's an important point given that we do hire caregivers to take care of the residents.

    Jim,我是 Debbie。要開始這個討論,有一個重要點是:勞動市場一直相當有利。因此這點很重要,因為我們確實需要聘用照護人員來照顧住戶。

  • J. Justin Hutchens - Executive Vice President - Senior Housing, Chief Investment Officer

    J. Justin Hutchens - Executive Vice President - Senior Housing, Chief Investment Officer

  • Yes. And I think the other point on that is really the value proposition that the residents are realizing, and there's a wide variety. I mean they're engaging with us because they're looking for safety, socialization, peace of mind, ease of living, the amenities and the care delivery that they can receive in the assisted living and memory care settings. And if you're delivering services and care the right way and engaging with your residents or families in a way that builds and maintains that trust, the value proposition is well understood, and the price discussion is understood as well. And so there is certainly an active dialogue, particularly between our operators and the residents around the cost of service and care delivery and then the prices that we charge in association with that.

    是的。我想另一個重點其實是住戶正在體驗到的價值主張,而且需求面向很廣。我的意思是,他們選擇與我們互動,是因為他們在尋求安全、社交、安心、生活便利、各項設施,以及在協助式生活與失智照護環境中可獲得的照護服務。如果你以正確方式提供服務與照護,並以能建立與維持信任的方式與住戶或家屬互動,價值主張就會被充分理解,價格的討論也會被理解。因此,確實存在積極的對話,特別是在我們的營運商與住戶之間,針對服務與照護交付的成本,以及我們相應收取的價格。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Seth Bergey, Citi.

    Seth Bergey,Citi。

  • Nick Joseph - Analyst

    Nick Joseph - Analyst

  • It's Nick Joseph here for Seth. Just in terms of your comments on increased competition or more interest in the sector. And in your prepared remarks, you mentioned that supply and construction starts are still very low. So I guess the question is, at what point are you starting to see any of that capital, as returns compress or at least cap rates compress a bit, and you see more and more interest move into development, particularly given your comments on acquisitions versus replacement costs. I know there's still a gap there. But are we getting closer to some of that capital becoming interested in starting new supply?

    我是 Nick Joseph,代 Seth 提問。就你提到競爭加劇或產業關注度提高而言,在你事先準備的發言中,你提到供給與新開工仍然非常低。所以我的問題是:當報酬率被壓縮、或至少 cap rate 稍微被壓縮,而你又看到越來越多的興趣時,什麼時點你會開始看到部分資金轉向開發(development),特別是考量你提到收購價格相對於重置成本。我知道兩者仍有差距,但我們是否正在更接近讓部分資金開始對新增供給有興趣?

  • J. Justin Hutchens - Executive Vice President - Senior Housing, Chief Investment Officer

    J. Justin Hutchens - Executive Vice President - Senior Housing, Chief Investment Officer

  • So that's another really good question. We're still 20% to 40% off in terms of where rents need to be to -- for most developments to pencil. We talked about this before, when developments start to be delivered at some point, when you see starts announced it's most likely going to be a very high price point product, that's so disconnected from the existing market that the underwriting supports disposable high-end market that's available. And -- but if we just look across our markets, we see 20% to 40% higher rents needed to support new supply. Doesn't mean there's not an interest in it from potential capital players and operators and developers out there, given the fundamentals are so strong and the demand outlook is so incredibly strong. It makes sense, and we'll need it at some point, but it still doesn't seem near term.

    這又是一個非常好的問題。就大多數開發案要能算得過來(pencil)而言,我們距離租金需要達到的水準仍差 20% 到 40%。我們之前談過:當某個時間點開始有開發案交付、你看到開工被宣布時,最可能會是非常高價位的產品,與既有市場脫節到一個程度,使得承作模型(underwriting)是以可支配的高端市場為基礎,且該市場確實存在。——但如果我們只看我們各個市場,我們看到需要 20% 到 40% 更高的租金才能支撐新增供給。這不代表潛在資金方、營運商與開發商沒有興趣,因為基本面非常強、需求展望也極其強勁。這樣的興趣是合理的,而且某個時間點我們也會需要新增供給,但看起來短期內仍不太可能。

  • Nick Joseph - Analyst

    Nick Joseph - Analyst

  • And then just maybe in terms of the asset sales, obviously, just given the strength of the transaction market and the interest there, what's the opportunity from the Ventas portfolio side to recycle any of your senior housing assets that maybe you can harvest the value and redeploy into other opportunities?

    另外再問一下資產出售方面:顯然考量到交易市場的強勁以及市場興趣,從 Ventas 投資組合的角度來看,把你們某些高齡住宅資產做資產輪動(recycle)的機會有多大——也就是你們可以收割價值,並把資金再部署到其他機會上?

  • J. Justin Hutchens - Executive Vice President - Senior Housing, Chief Investment Officer

    J. Justin Hutchens - Executive Vice President - Senior Housing, Chief Investment Officer

  • So we've been -- each year, we have a small amount of targeted dispos usually a few hundred million or so, what we targeted. And there's always some and some of it is still senior housing. One of the key parts of our strategy is to make sure that we're in the right markets with the right assets. And if we see anything that we don't think supports the growth profile that we're targeting, then we'll introduce it to the market as a sale. We've been doing that consistently over the past several years, and we'll continue to always look for that bottom part of the portfolio that we can sell.

    所以我們一直以來——每一年都會做少量的定向處分(dispos),通常是幾億美元左右,屬於我們鎖定的標的。而且總是會有一些,其中一部分仍然是高齡住宅。我們策略的關鍵之一,是確保我們在正確的市場、持有正確的資產。如果我們看到任何我們認為不支持我們所鎖定成長輪廓的資產,我們就會把它推向市場作為出售標的。過去幾年我們一直持續這麼做,未來也會持續尋找投資組合底部那一部分可以出售的資產。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Vikram Malhotra, Mizuho.

    Vikram Malhotra,瑞穗(Mizuho)。

  • Vikram Malhotra - Analyst

    Vikram Malhotra - Analyst

  • I guess two for me. One, just going back to the Revel deal. Can you maybe give us a little bit of flavor as to maybe a bit more flavor as to why the occupancy kind of hasn't picked up and kind of the positioning of the portfolio in terms of the product mix? Are there more studios, for example, when people want larger studios? Is it a price point issue or a labor issue in terms of the right people? What could get you trending higher in terms of occupancy over the next year or two?

    我這邊有兩個問題。第一個,回到 Revel 這筆交易。你們能否多分享一些背景,為什麼入住率似乎沒有回升,以及就產品組合而言,該投資組合的定位如何?例如,是否有比較多套房(studio),但市場其實想要更大的套房?是定價點的問題,還是人力(找到合適人員)的問題?未來一到兩年,什麼因素可以讓入住率走勢往上?

  • J. Justin Hutchens - Executive Vice President - Senior Housing, Chief Investment Officer

    J. Justin Hutchens - Executive Vice President - Senior Housing, Chief Investment Officer

  • Yes. So -- good question. So it's -- there's no structural issue. It's not a situation where you have studios in a one better market, for instance. This is an investment that was well built for the type of resident they're trying to serve. There -- the one thing that's interesting when you visit is you don't see many residents hanging around in their apartments. I mean these are very active communities that have a significant focus on health and wellness, fitness, education around those topics. There's a social event with music playing. There's an activity at the bar. We were there in the afternoon. And it's just a great time.

    是的。所以——好問題。這裡——沒有結構性問題。不是那種例如在更適合一房產品的市場卻配置了套房的情況。這是一項為其想服務的住戶類型而打造、建得很好的投資。有一點很有趣:你去參訪時,不太會看到很多住戶待在自己的房間裡。我的意思是,這些社區非常活躍,並且高度聚焦在健康與養生、健身,以及圍繞這些主題的教育活動。有音樂的社交活動、有在吧台的活動。我們是下午去的,氛圍非常好。

  • And so I think they've done a great job of introducing a product that will work and be real popular. And in many of the locations, it's already proven to deliver a stabilized occupancy, but a lot of the newer product is still in lease-up. And so we'll be targeting those communities and work with the team that's in place that has generated some momentum already to try to help improve on really sales delivery, sales execution, also, there's some price sophistication opportunities as well that we can bring through the Ventas OI platform.

    因此我認為他們在推出一個可行、而且會很受歡迎的產品方面做得很好。在許多地點,這個產品已經證明可以達到穩定後的入住率,但不少較新的產品仍在招租爬坡(lease-up)階段。所以我們會鎖定那些社區,並與現有團隊合作——他們已經建立了一些動能——來協助提升,主要是在銷售交付、銷售執行上;另外在定價精細化方面也有一些機會,我們可以透過 Ventas OI 平台導入。

  • Vikram Malhotra - Analyst

    Vikram Malhotra - Analyst

  • Okay. And then just one more. I guess I'm wondering is it time for Ventas to maybe use the fund it already has or create a new fund in the sense monetize certain maybe core higher occupancy senior housing or maybe even some life sciences where you could perhaps get fees, promotes, et cetera, just given where we are in the cycle and the deviation in, say, Lifesci versus senior housing. I'm wondering if there's an opportunity for Ventas in the fund business.

    好的。再一個問題。我在想,Ventas 是否該利用既有的基金,或成立一個新基金,用於某種意義上的變現——例如把某些核心、較高入住率的高齡住宅,甚至一些生命科學資產放進去,藉此可能取得管理費、績效分成(promotes)等等;考量目前所處的景氣循環,以及例如生命科學相對於高齡住宅的偏離程度。我想知道 Ventas 在基金業務上是否有機會。

  • Debra Cafaro - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Debra Cafaro - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Vikram, this is Debbie. Thanks for the question. We do have a Ventas investment management business that includes an open-end fund and some other vehicles. And certainly, with all the interest in senior housing and with Ventas' competitive advantages, and brand, we're well positioned to continue to try to expand our footprint in senior housing in a variety of ways, which could include things like additional vehicles.

    Vikram,我是 Debbie。謝謝你的問題。我們確實有 Ventas 的投資管理業務,其中包含一檔開放式基金(open-end fund)以及其他一些載體(vehicles)。當然,鑑於市場對高齡住宅的高度興趣,以及 Ventas 的競爭優勢與品牌,我們很有條件持續嘗試以多種方式擴大我們在高齡住宅的版圖,其中也可能包括像是新增一些載體。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Austin Wurschmidt, KeyBanc Capital Markets.

    Austin Wurschmidt,KeyBanc Capital Markets。

  • Austin Wurschmidt - Analyst

    Austin Wurschmidt - Analyst

  • Justin, the incremental margin within SHOP segment has remained around the 50% level, which I think you previously assumed in initial guidance. Has anything changed relative to what's assumed in the revised guidance? And I guess given occupancy within the same-store pool is now above 90%, when do you think you could start to see that incremental margin improve into the 60%, 70% range or better?

    Justin,SHOP 部門的增量利潤率一直維持在約 50% 的水準,我記得你們在最初的指引中也是這樣假設的。相較於修正後的指引,假設上有任何改變嗎?另外,既然同店池的入住率現在已經超過 90%,你認為何時可以開始看到增量利潤率提升到 60%、70% 或更高?

  • J. Justin Hutchens - Executive Vice President - Senior Housing, Chief Investment Officer

    J. Justin Hutchens - Executive Vice President - Senior Housing, Chief Investment Officer

  • Yes. Another one of our favorites. So -- the margin has been around -- the incremental margin is around 50%. It's been that way for years in a row now, and that's as we run that journey from the kind of mid-80s to 90% occupancy. And we're -- the guidance really assumes that it's in the 50s this year as we're at this 90% occupancy mark now. We know that in our portfolio that communities that are in that kind of 90% plus range of occupancy that have not had an occupancy change year over year. So they've had a flat occupancy, they deliver a 70% incremental margin. And obviously, we have a group of communities that were still in lease-up across our US portfolio, which is only 87% occupied. So we still have a lot of communities that are delivering occupancy growth, but when you isolate those and that didn't deliver occupancy growth year over year, that rule of thumb we've talked about is certainly achievable. And our goal over time is going to be to get as many communities in that category as possible.

    是的。又一個我們很喜歡的問題。所以——利潤率大約——增量利潤率大約是 50%。這已經連續好幾年都是如此,因為我們一路從大約 80% 中段的入住率走到 90%。而我們——今年的指引基本假設在目前 90% 入住率這個水位時,增量利潤率會落在 50% 多。我們知道,在我們的投資組合中,那些入住率在 90% 以上、且年對年入住率沒有變化的社區——也就是入住率持平——其增量利潤率可達 70%。當然,我們在美國投資組合中仍有一批社區還在招租爬坡,而整體美國目前只有 87% 入住。因此我們仍有很多社區在貢獻入住率成長;但當你把那些社區單獨抽出來、聚焦在年對年沒有入住率成長的社區時,我們一直提到的那個經驗法則確實是可達成的。我們長期的目標,就是讓盡可能多的社區進入那個類別。

  • Austin Wurschmidt - Analyst

    Austin Wurschmidt - Analyst

  • That's helpful. And then you reiterated kind of that the May to September key selling season is really going to determine how the year plays out. But did go ahead and increase occupancy given, I guess, the lack of seasonality you saw in 1Q, how much of that occupancy guidance increase was specific to 1Q versus flowing through, I guess, a better outcome through the balance of the year?

    這很有幫助。接著你們重申,5 月到 9 月的關鍵銷售季將真正決定全年表現。但你們也提高了入住率指引;考量你們在第一季看到的季節性不明顯,這次入住率指引上調有多少是第一季的特定因素, versus 反映到全年其餘期間、也就是更好的結果延伸到下半年?

  • J. Justin Hutchens - Executive Vice President - Senior Housing, Chief Investment Officer

    J. Justin Hutchens - Executive Vice President - Senior Housing, Chief Investment Officer

  • Yes. So it's -- this key selling season hasn't even started yet. And we do have optimism heading into it because of the strong start we had, but I would really think about it as the strong start, really delivering the increase from 270 to 300 on the full year. And knowing that we have a lot of execution left during the most important part of the year, which is the key selling season.

    是的。所以——關鍵銷售季甚至還沒開始。我們因為強勁的開局而對進入銷售季抱持樂觀,但我會把它理解為:正是這個強勁開局,推動我們把全年指引從 270 提高到 300。同時也要知道,在一年中最重要的部分——也就是關鍵銷售季——我們還有很多執行工作要完成。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Michael Carroll, RBC Capital Markets.

    Michael Carroll,RBC Capital Markets。

  • Michael Carroll - Analyst

    Michael Carroll - Analyst

  • With seniors housing occupancy now above 90%, I mean, does it make more sense for operators to push for higher rates as opposed when occupancy was in the low 80% range, I guess, or said another way, does the improved occupancy level allows these operators to be a little bit more aggressive for their operating strategy trying to push for higher rates?

    在高齡住宅入住率現在已經超過 90% 的情況下,我是說,對營運商而言,是否更合理去推動更高的房價/費率,而不是像入住率在 80% 初段時那樣?換句話說,入住率改善是否讓這些營運商在營運策略上可以更積極地提高費率?

  • J. Justin Hutchens - Executive Vice President - Senior Housing, Chief Investment Officer

    J. Justin Hutchens - Executive Vice President - Senior Housing, Chief Investment Officer

  • Well, I would just want to remind you that we're 87% occupied in the US. So we see our opportunity very much is volume driven. We're happy that we're seeing good performance from both occupancy and from rate, and that's delivering that 8.75% revenue guide that we made on the full year. So everything is contributing to the revenue growth and the improved outlook on revenue. However, volume remains the number-one focus that we do know when you have higher occupied communities, that there's better opportunity for price performance, and we see that in our portfolio. But the opportunity really is to continue to drive occupancy in the US.

    嗯,我想先提醒你,我們在美國的入住率是 87%。所以我們看到的機會很大程度上仍由量(volume)驅動。我們很高興看到入住率與費率兩者都有良好表現,這也支撐了我們對全年提出的 8.75% 營收指引。因此所有因素都在貢獻營收成長與營收展望的改善。不過,量仍然是第一優先。我們確實知道,當社區入住率更高時,定價表現的機會會更好,我們也在投資組合中看到這點。但真正的機會,是持續推動美國的入住率提升。

  • Debra Cafaro - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Debra Cafaro - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Right. And that's what sets up the multiyear growth and value creation opportunity from organic growth in SHOP the rate and occupancy working together to deliver outperformance.

    沒錯。而這也奠定了 SHOP 透過內生成長(organic growth)在多年期的成長與價值創造機會:費率與入住率相互配合,共同帶來超額表現。

  • Michael Carroll - Analyst

    Michael Carroll - Analyst

  • Okay. Great. I appreciate that. And then just circling back on potential developments, I mean, have -- there have been interesting development opportunities that cross the Ventas desk that they're willing to pursue, or is it still just mainly focused on acquisitions at this point?

    好的。很好。感謝說明。接著回到潛在開發案,我是說——Ventas 這邊是否有看到一些有趣、值得追求的開發機會送到案頭?還是目前仍主要聚焦在收購?

  • J. Justin Hutchens - Executive Vice President - Senior Housing, Chief Investment Officer

    J. Justin Hutchens - Executive Vice President - Senior Housing, Chief Investment Officer

  • We are certainly focused on acquisitions. This has been -- we're in our third year of a very successful run of acquiring communities that have attractive -- they're accretive year one and have a growth profile that's supporting low to mid-teen unlevered IRRs. And we -- and that pipeline has grown, and we're executing on it. So that's our first priority. Along with, of course, continuing to drive organic performance across the SHOP portfolio and looking for opportunities to improve performance in those communities that we already own. Development opportunities, I'm sure there'll be some in the future, but that's not our focus at the time.

    我們當然聚焦在收購。這已經是——我們連續第三年非常成功地收購社區,這些標的具備吸引力——第一年就具增益(accretive),並且其成長輪廓可支撐低到中十幾%的無槓桿 IRR。我們——而且那條管線已經擴大,我們也正在執行。因此這是我們的第一優先事項。同時,當然也包括持續推動 SHOP 投資組合的內生表現,並尋找機會改善我們既有社區的營運表現。至於開發機會,我相信未來會有一些,但目前不是我們的重點。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Wes Golladay, Baird.

    Wes Golladay,Baird。

  • Wesley Golladay - Analyst

    Wesley Golladay - Analyst

  • I just want to go back to the Revel portfolio. Just looking on the website for a place for mom, looks really highly rated. And so I just want to go back into what the game plan will be. Is it really leaning into this Ventas OI giving the new, I guess, the operator more data, advice on pricing I'm just trying to see how near term -- what the near-term opportunity is, will the portfolio be ready for the key leasing season?

    我想再回到 Revel 投資組合。從「A Place for Mom」網站上看起來,評價非常高。所以我想再深入了解一下你們的作戰計畫會是什麼。是否主要是倚重 Ventas OI,提供新的——我想是指營運商——更多數據、定價建議等?我想了解短期——短期機會是什麼,以及該投資組合是否能趕上關鍵招租季?

  • J. Justin Hutchens - Executive Vice President - Senior Housing, Chief Investment Officer

    J. Justin Hutchens - Executive Vice President - Senior Housing, Chief Investment Officer

  • Yes. Well, I'll start with the last part. It's absolutely ready for the key selling season. These are just really well constructed resort-like communities that will be very competitive. And as we met with Wolf in the early stages, it became very clear quickly that the combination of these great communities, high-demand markets, their newly reinvigorated talented management team and the Ventas OI platform, which includes the benefit of all of our data analytics, but also our boots on the ground approach, which has already started, that we can really create value in this together. That's why the joint venture was a great fit. And we look forward to doing that. Obviously, the biggest opportunity is to continue to drive sales. And also when you're working on sales, price and volume always work together. So we'll bring our expertise in both areas to the platform.

    是的。嗯,我先從最後一部分開始。它絕對已為關鍵銷售旺季做好準備。這些就是建造得非常完善、度假村式的社區,競爭力會非常強。而且當我們在早期階段與 Wolf 會面時,很快就非常清楚:這些優質社區、高需求市場、他們重新振作且才華洋溢的管理團隊,以及 Ventas OI 平台(其中包含我們所有數據分析的優勢,還有我們已經開始推進的在地落地執行方式)結合在一起,我們確實能共同創造價值。這就是為什麼這個合資案非常契合。我們也期待把它做好。顯然,最大的機會是持續推動銷售。而且在做銷售時,價格與銷量總是相互配合。因此,我們會把在這兩個領域的專業帶到這個平台上。

  • Wesley Golladay - Analyst

    Wesley Golladay - Analyst

  • And then when you look at the pipeline, I mean, is this a unique opportunity you have you when you look at the future in are you seeing these were you have the core a little higher yield also have just get into the OI and then you get a nice fit in a few years?

    然後當你看這個管線時,我的意思是,當你看未來時,這是不是你們所擁有的一個獨特機會?你是否看到這些——你們的核心部分收益率也稍微更高一些,同時也能進入 OI,然後在幾年後得到一個很好的契合?

  • J. Justin Hutchens - Executive Vice President - Senior Housing, Chief Investment Officer

    J. Justin Hutchens - Executive Vice President - Senior Housing, Chief Investment Officer

  • Yes. I think what -- you broke up a little bit, but I think what you're asking is, is this a unique opportunity? And are there other value-add opportunities in the portfolio? We've had a number like this already. They've just been smaller, and so this is the first one at scale that we're pretty excited about. We have other value add opportunities in the $3 billion guide. So we're looking forward to delivering accretive investments with growth (multiple speakers).

    是的。我想——你剛剛有點斷訊,但我理解你在問的是:這是不是一個獨特的機會?以及在投資組合中是否還有其他增值機會?我們之前已經做過好幾個類似的案子,只是規模較小,所以這是第一個我們非常興奮、具規模的案例。我們在 30 億美元指引中還有其他增值機會。因此,我們期待交付具增益性的投資並帶來成長(多位發言者)。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Juan Sanabria, BMO Capital.

    Juan Sanabria,BMO Capital。

  • Juan Sanabria - Analyst

    Juan Sanabria - Analyst

  • Just a question on seniors, there's been press articles about given the tight markets about operators being able to charge entrance fees and maybe generate some revenue off of waitlists. So just curious on your approach, and how that may or may not contribute to kind of the 100% occupancy goal or zero days downtime.

    關於高齡住宅我有個問題。媒體有報導說,在市場供給緊俏的情況下,營運商能夠收取入場費,甚至可能透過候補名單(waitlist)產生一些收入。所以我想了解你們的做法,以及這可能如何(或不如何)對你們所說的 100% 入住率目標或零空置天數有所貢獻。

  • Debra Cafaro - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Debra Cafaro - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Well, it starts with the value proposition. I think it's really interesting that this is, as you know, a private pay, consumer-driven business that people are choosing for -- where they want to live for the security it offers them and their families. So that is very encouraging, especially when coupled with the demographic demand that we see accelerating and then remaining elevated for a long period of time. So that's really important to think about. And I'll turn it over to Justin really to talk about the different management of communities as they go up the curve in terms of occupancy, which we see happening and over time will happen more in our portfolio.

    嗯,這要從價值主張開始。我覺得很有意思的是,這如你所知,是一個自費、由消費者驅動的業務,人們是基於——他們想住在哪裡、以及它為他們和家人提供的安全感而做出選擇。因此這非常令人鼓舞,尤其是再加上我們看到的人口結構需求正在加速,並且在很長一段時間內維持在高位。這點非常重要。接下來我會把問題交給 Justin,請他談談不同社區在入住率沿著曲線上升時的管理方式;我們看到這正在發生,並且隨著時間推移,在我們的投資組合中會更常見。

  • J. Justin Hutchens - Executive Vice President - Senior Housing, Chief Investment Officer

    J. Justin Hutchens - Executive Vice President - Senior Housing, Chief Investment Officer

  • Yes. Juan, you mentioned entrance fees. I'm going to reframe it and call it community fees, which is a fee that's been really a fee that's been part of the industry pricing package for many years. In more competitive periods, it would be reduced or waived. In this period, where we have increased demand, it's actually going up. So we are seeing higher community fees in across our portfolio. So that's consistent with what you're reading about. And we're also starting to see wait list form.

    是的,Juan,你提到入場費。我會重新表述,稱之為社區費(community fees),這是一項多年來一直是產業定價方案一部分的費用。在競爭較激烈的時期,這項費用會被降低或免除。而在目前需求增加的時期,它其實正在上升。所以我們確實在整個投資組合中看到更高的社區費。這與你讀到的內容一致。而且我們也開始看到候補名單形成。

  • Now, we've had them for many years already in Canada. That's where our longest wait list exists in Quebec, and we're starting to have some wait lists in the US. And there's certainly deposits that are required for waitlist. And in some cases, you can charge to be on a waitlist. And we're at the front end of that. But there's demand. And as Debbie mentioned, the value proposition is very appealing to those that are interested. So it has supported better pricing.

    其實我們在加拿大已經有很多年了。我們最長的候補名單在魁北克,而我們也開始在美國看到一些候補名單。候補名單通常需要支付訂金。在某些情況下,你也可以對加入候補名單收費。我們目前還在這方面的前端階段。但確實有需求。而且如 Debbie 所提到的,這個價值主張對有興趣的人非常有吸引力。因此它也支撐了更好的定價。

  • Juan Sanabria - Analyst

    Juan Sanabria - Analyst

  • And just going back to development or supply that's come up a couple of times, curious on the appetite to structure something either with maybe a preferred or mez-type components to where you guys could earn a return during the build-out or lease-up. Historically, you guys haven't done US development in senior's housing. So just curious if that is something that would be of interest. I mean, a couple of the leading operators, including Sunrise, have talked about looking at development. So it seems like it's coming near term. So just curious on your appetite maybe not traditional simple and in other structures to where you could earn a return during that initial phase?

    再回到開發或供給這個已經被提到幾次的話題,我想了解你們是否有意願去設計某種結構,例如帶有優先權(preferred)或夾層(mezz)類型的組件,讓你們在建造或出租爬坡(lease-up)期間也能獲得回報。過去你們並沒有在美國做高齡住宅的開發,所以想請教這是否會是你們感興趣的方向。我的意思是,一些領先的營運商(包括 Sunrise)都談到在看開發案,所以看起來短期內可能會出現。想了解你們的意願——也許不是傳統、單純的方式,而是其他結構,讓你們在初期階段就能賺取回報?

  • J. Justin Hutchens - Executive Vice President - Senior Housing, Chief Investment Officer

    J. Justin Hutchens - Executive Vice President - Senior Housing, Chief Investment Officer

  • Well, so there certainly are structures that can -- that we can utilize that makes sense. And when it comes to development, and we can -- with the right opportunity can underwrite returns. And we have a lot of partners that would be qualified to do that with. It's just not a big area of focus for us. We're focused on acquisitions, as described, delivering accretive growth opportunities, but also the unlevered IRRs there in the low to mid-teens. And so I know that's not quite what you're asking. The answer is yes, there's a way to do it. But it's also important to know that that's really not where we're focused on in scale at this point.

    嗯,確實有一些結構——我們可以運用、而且是合理的。談到開發時,在合適的機會下,我們也能承作(underwrite)相應的報酬率。我們也有很多合作夥伴具備資格與我們一起做。只是這並不是我們的主要重點。我們的重點在於如前所述的收購,提供具增益性的成長機會,同時那裡的無槓桿 IRR 大約在低到中十幾%。我知道這不完全是你問的重點。答案是:是的,有方法可以做。但同時也要知道,就目前而言,這並不是我們會以規模化方式聚焦的方向。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Farrell Granath, Bank of America.

    Farrell Granath,美國銀行。

  • Farrell Granath - Analyst

    Farrell Granath - Analyst

  • This is Farrell Granath. I first just wanted to ask about the increase in the cash G&A. I know you had mentioned about adding some staff as well on the SHOP platform. I was curious if there's any other contributing factors, or are there any initiatives that are also going into that figure?

    我是 Farrell Granath。我首先想問一下現金 G&A 增加的原因。我知道你提到在 SHOP 平台也增加了一些人員。我想了解是否還有其他促成因素,或是否有任何計畫也包含在這個數字裡?

  • Robert Probst - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Robert Probst - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • I'll take that one. For cash G&A, we mentioned in February, and you see it in the numbers in the first quarter. We are investing behind the business. We're obviously growing and scaling the platform. And so investing behind that people process technology in order to be able to accelerate that growth is definitely part of the playbook. We continue to believe that growth on cash G&A will be in line with the growth of the enterprise. We continue to stay focused on efficiency and effectiveness, but the first quarter is representative, I think, of the plan.

    我來回答。關於現金 G&A,我們在二月已經提過,你也在第一季的數字中看到了。我們正在對業務加大投入。我們顯然正在擴張並規模化這個平台。因此,為了能加速成長而在人才、流程、技術方面投入,確實是我們策略的一部分。我們仍然相信,現金 G&A 的成長會與企業的成長保持一致。我們也持續聚焦效率與效能,但我認為第一季的表現代表了計畫的執行。

  • Farrell Granath - Analyst

    Farrell Granath - Analyst

  • Great. And (technical difficulty), the rollout of Ventas OI, is that fully integrated with all your operators currently on your SHOP platform, or is there an additional rollout that we could expect?

    很好。還有(技術問題),Ventas OI 的推行是否已經與你們 SHOP 平台上目前所有營運商完全整合?還是我們可以預期還會有進一步的推行?

  • J. Justin Hutchens - Executive Vice President - Senior Housing, Chief Investment Officer

    J. Justin Hutchens - Executive Vice President - Senior Housing, Chief Investment Officer

  • Yes. It's fully integrated. If you're new to us, it takes -- there's a period of time that has to pass before you're fully integrated. We have a number of new operators that have joined us in the recent months. But yes, this is a fully integrated platform across all of our operators across all of our geographies, primarily in the US and combining the advantage of the data analytics platform and the experiential insights that we deliver through a number of avenues, including boots on the ground site visits with our operators.

    是的,已經完全整合。如果你是新加入我們的合作方,會需要——在完全整合之前需要經過一段時間。我們在最近幾個月有一些新的營運商加入。但沒錯,這是一個在我們所有營運商、所有地理區域(主要在美國)全面整合的平台,結合了數據分析平台的優勢,以及我們透過多種方式提供的實務洞察,包括與營運商一起進行的在地實地走訪(boots on the ground)訪視。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Rich Anderson, Cantor Fitzgerald.

    Rich Anderson,Cantor Fitzgerald。

  • Richard Anderson - Analyst

    Richard Anderson - Analyst

  • Great quarter. Question number one is early on, Debbie, you said you're seeing increased engagement to do deals with Ventas. And I guess I'm curious why anyone would be a motivated seller with all everything just sort of starting to happen here. It's not like they're getting five caps on deals to get paid for the opportunity set going forward. So what is the -- I get the Revel deal, but like what is in it for people to be a seller today? And along those lines, do you think there'll be more in the way of JV type of deals that you'll have to accommodate to continue to grow maybe OP unit deals? I'm just curious how that dynamic might be playing into the future from external growth standpoint.

    第一季很棒。第一個問題是,Debbie,你一開始提到你看到與 Ventas 進行交易的互動度提高。我想知道,既然一切才剛開始好轉,為什麼會有人願意成為積極的賣方?這不像是他們能用 5 cap 的價格把交易賣掉,並因此獲得未來機會集的報酬。所以,大家今天賣出的動機是什麼?我理解 Revel 這筆交易,但除此之外,賣方今天賣出到底能得到什麼?另外,沿著這個思路,你是否認為未來會有更多你們必須配合的合資(JV)類型交易,才能持續成長——也許是 OP unit 交易?我想了解從外部成長的角度,這種動態可能如何影響未來。

  • Debra Cafaro - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Debra Cafaro - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • I mean -- a good question. It is true that more and more people are bringing assets to market which is building our pipeline considerably and giving us a great opportunity set. And sellers come in different varieties: private equity sellers, other holders who have limited life vehicles or other holding periods that have been perhaps exceeded because of the last couple of years and who also want to make sure that they can achieve returns and then perhaps recycle capital.

    我的意思是——這是個好問題。確實,越來越多人把資產拿到市場上,這大幅擴充了我們的管線,也給了我們很好的機會集合。賣方有不同類型:私募股權賣方、其他持有人——他們可能有存續期有限的投資載體,或其他持有期間;也可能因為過去幾年而使原本的持有期被拉長、甚至超過預期;同時他們也希望確保能實現報酬,然後可能進行資本再配置。

  • We see a lot of that. We see some debt maturities, and the truth is when the assets get in our hands are likely to perform better. And so we may be having better returns than the seller could have if they hold on to the asset. So it tends to be longer hold periods, different types of sellers, who maybe don't have the advantage platform that we have. This is a very difficult business to run in a just a one-off basis or in small scale. And that's why we're building this platform to be able to outperform at scale. So those are some of the reasons. I don't know if, Justin, you want to add any or did that cover it.

    我們看到很多這種情況。我們也看到一些債務到期。而事實是,當資產到我們手上時,很可能會有更好的表現。因此,我們可能能取得比賣方若繼續持有資產所能取得的更好報酬。通常是持有期較長、不同類型的賣方,他們可能沒有我們所具備的平台優勢。這是一個非常難以用一次性(one-off)或小規模方式經營的業務。這也是為什麼我們要打造這個平台,以便能在規模化下跑贏表現。以上是一些原因。我不知道 Justin 你是否想補充,或這樣是否已涵蓋。

  • J. Justin Hutchens - Executive Vice President - Senior Housing, Chief Investment Officer

    J. Justin Hutchens - Executive Vice President - Senior Housing, Chief Investment Officer

  • Yes. Just -- there's a second part of the question regarding joint ventures. And what I would say is the Revel deal is obviously a joint venture is a strength on strength, joint venture opportunity to go create value. In any investment we make, we're always looking for alignment. And we found it that way, in that case, through a joint venture and most of our senior housing investments we're doing it through aligned management agreements. And so that's helping us to be on the same page with the operators from day 1 when we start a new relationship.

    是的。只是——問題的第二部分是關於合資企業。我想說的是,Revel 這筆交易顯然是一個合資案,是強強聯手的合資機會,用來創造價值。在我們做的任何投資中,我們始終在尋求一致性(alignment)。而在那個案例中,我們透過合資找到了這種一致性;同時,我們大多數的高齡住宅投資則是透過一致的管理協議來進行。因此,當我們從第 1 天開始建立新合作關係時,這有助於我們與營運商站在同一頁上。

  • Debra Cafaro - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Debra Cafaro - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • The rest of our expected investment activity is 100% equity ownership by Ventas.

    我們其餘預期的投資活動將由 Ventas 以 100% 股權持有。

  • Richard Anderson - Analyst

    Richard Anderson - Analyst

  • Okay. Next question is a lot of your a lot of REITs and others, again, to reiterate a recurring theme or sort of going after this opportunity, which you have to do, right? This is a great dynamic supply-demand dynamic going forward for the next several years. But everyone is sort of standing on the same side of the boat. And when that happens, eventually the boat tips.

    好的。下一個問題是,你們——很多 REIT 和其他公司——再次重申一個反覆出現的主題,都在追逐這個機會,而你們也必須這麼做,對吧?未來幾年供需動態非常有利。但大家某種程度上都站在船的同一側。當這種情況發生時,船終究會傾斜。

  • And I'm wondering if do you see an opportunity of people that are buyers today that may be necessary sellers a couple of years from now when you think about development coming back into the fray. 20% below rents needed to justify development. Well, if you start today, three years from now, it might have made a whole lot of sense to start a development today. So I just wonder if you think that there is a second chapter of people that are buyers today will be sellers tomorrow for Ventas.

    我想知道,當你考慮到開發案重新回到市場競爭時,是否會看到一個機會:今天的買家,可能在幾年後變成不得不賣的賣家。租金要比足以支撐開發所需的水準低 20%。嗯,如果你今天開始做,三年後,今天啟動開發可能就會非常合理。所以我只是想問,你是否認為會有第二章:今天的買家,明天會成為 Ventas 的賣家。

  • Debra Cafaro - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Debra Cafaro - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. I mean, I would -- I agree with you, and the reason is more about the expertise and data that are necessary to really do well in this business. I do think some new entrants will find it more challenging, frankly, and they will likely be sellers because you really have to know what you're doing, as Justin does from his decades in the industry, and we've spent five years building this platform, and it's a very effective and differentiated. And if you don't have that, it's much harder to succeed. So I do think that will give us more opportunities as we look in the next couple of years.

    是的。我的意思是——我同意你,而原因更多在於:要在這個業務中真正做得好,需要專業能力與數據。我確實認為一些新進者會發現更具挑戰性,坦白說,他們很可能會成為賣家,因為你真的必須知道自己在做什麼——就像 Justin 憑藉他在產業數十年的經驗一樣;而我們也花了五年打造這個平台,它非常有效且具差異化。如果你沒有這些,要成功就困難得多。所以我確實認為,這會在未來幾年為我們帶來更多機會。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Michael Goldsmith, UBS Financial.

    UBS Financial 的 Michael Goldsmith。

  • Michael Goldsmith - Analyst

    Michael Goldsmith - Analyst

  • It's Michael Goldsmith. I'm here with Justin [Huby.] Maybe sticking with the Revel investment. It sounded like you've done some smaller lease-up or unstabilized acquisitions in the past. This was clearly a bit bigger. So maybe the follow-up question to that is just are you more willing now to be a buyer of these type of properties? And if so, is that driven by the improved backdrop or something else in the environment that makes this more attractive now?

    我是 Michael Goldsmith。我和 Justin [Huby.] 在一起。也許延續 Revel 投資這個話題。聽起來你們過去做過一些較小的、處於出租爬坡期(lease-up)或尚未穩定(unstabilized)的收購。這次顯然規模更大。所以後續問題可能是:你們現在是否更願意成為這類資產的買家?如果是,這是因為市場背景改善,還是環境中其他因素讓它現在更具吸引力?

  • J. Justin Hutchens - Executive Vice President - Senior Housing, Chief Investment Officer

    J. Justin Hutchens - Executive Vice President - Senior Housing, Chief Investment Officer

  • Yes. I mean, we are -- we've been really from the beginning of this investment run we've been on, which started in '24, we've been focused on unlevered IRRs in the low- to mid-teens. We have been delivering on that through a variety of different types of investments in senior housing. And certainly, a value-add opportunity is is great because it will support more growth. And in this particular one, hits the mid-teens unlevered IRRs. And so we like that opportunity. There's other smaller opportunities like that, that we've had. We've had others that are in the pipeline in the $3 billion that we've mentioned that will deliver some more close to the mid-teens as well. And you're really pulling two levers to get there, right? You have the going-in year 1 yield. And then the expected growth profile of the asset over time and those are working together in everything we've been investing in to deliver the IRRs that we're targeting.

    是的。我的意思是,我們——從這一輪投資開始以來(始於 24 年),我們一直專注於低到中十幾%的無槓桿 IRR。我們已透過多種不同類型的高齡住宅投資實現了這一點。而且,增值型(value-add)機會當然很棒,因為它能支撐更多成長。就這一筆而言,無槓桿 IRR 達到中十幾%,所以我們喜歡這個機會。我們也有其他較小的類似機會;在我們提到的 30 億美元管線中,也還有一些正在推進的案子,將帶來更接近中十幾%的回報。要達到那裡,你其實是在拉動兩個槓桿,對吧?一是進場時第 1 年的收益率(yield);二是資產隨時間推進的預期成長曲線。這兩者在我們所有投資中共同作用,以交付我們鎖定的 IRR。

  • Michael Goldsmith - Analyst

    Michael Goldsmith - Analyst

  • Got it. And as a follow-up, maybe can you provide an update on the Brookdale transitions, how those 45 assets are trending? Are you largely in line with your expectation of realizing $50 million of upside on those, and if so what’s the timeline there.

    了解。那作為追問,也許你能更新一下 Brookdale 轉換的進展,那 45 項資產的走勢如何?你們是否大致符合實現 5,000 萬美元上行空間的預期?如果是,時間表是什麼?

  • J. Justin Hutchens - Executive Vice President - Senior Housing, Chief Investment Officer

    J. Justin Hutchens - Executive Vice President - Senior Housing, Chief Investment Officer

  • Yes. So to remind everybody, that 45 communities that we transitioned late last year, earlier this year from our Brookdale lease to our SHOP portfolio, these are large-scale communities that are located in markets with high demand. So tailwinds that we're playing into. They require additional investment to be competitive. We've completed -- will have completed by next month, the majority of those investments in the portfolio. So the CapEx deployment is really on track. All 5 operators are fully integrated now into the communities, and they're getting a handle on the operation and really focused on the key selling season. So that's going as planned. And then like I said before, we really viewed '26 as the year to put all the pieces in place, and then '27 is, and beyond, is really the NOI growth opportunity. And you're right, we did see a double the NOI opportunity because it was around a $50 million run rate back at the end of '24 when we put this deal together, and we're anticipating over the next few years to be able to double that. And we've put all the pieces in place now to get started on that process.

    是的。提醒大家一下:我們在去年底、今年初把那 45 個社區從 Brookdale 的租賃模式轉到我們的 SHOP 組合。這些是大型社區,位於需求旺盛的市場,因此我們正順勢而為。它們需要額外投資以提升競爭力。我們已完成——到下個月將完成——該組合中大部分投資,所以資本支出(CapEx)投放確實按計畫進行。現在 5 家營運商都已完全整合進這些社區,並已掌握營運狀況,且真正聚焦於關鍵的銷售旺季。因此進展如預期。然後如我先前所說,我們確實把 26 年視為把所有拼圖就位的一年,而 27 年及之後才是真正的 NOI 成長機會。你說得沒錯,我們確實看到了 NOI 翻倍的機會,因為在 24 年底我們敲定這筆交易時,NOI 的運行水準(run rate)約為 5,000 萬美元,而我們預期在未來幾年能把它翻倍。我們現在已把所有要素就位,開始推動這個過程。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Michael Stroyeck, Green Street.

    Green Street 的 Michael Stroyeck。

  • Michael Stroyeck - Analyst

    Michael Stroyeck - Analyst

  • With the bidding tents getting more competitive, particularly within high-quality, well-stabilized product, have you seen meaningful declines in your win rates within that subset of the market?

    隨著競標環境變得更具競爭性,特別是在高品質、已穩定的產品上,你們是否看到在該市場子集合中的得標率出現明顯下滑?

  • J. Justin Hutchens - Executive Vice President - Senior Housing, Chief Investment Officer

    J. Justin Hutchens - Executive Vice President - Senior Housing, Chief Investment Officer

  • Interestingly enough, our win rate has been pretty consistent in the pipeline has become bigger. The actual pipeline is a little bigger. And then -- and our win rate is consistent. Therefore, that's why we've raised our investment guidance. And so there's there's exceptional deals here and there that go for some pretty aggressive cap rates. But like I said, we've been able to exploit all the strengths that we have and a great track record and continue to have confidence in our ability to execute within the market.

    有趣的是,我們的得標率一直相當一致,而管線也變得更大——實際的管線確實更大一些。然後——我們的得標率保持一致。因此,這也是我們提高投資指引的原因。確實有一些特別的交易會以相當激進的資本化率(cap rate)成交。但如我所說,我們一直能夠發揮我們所有的優勢與良好的往績,並持續對我們在市場中的執行能力保持信心。

  • Debra Cafaro - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Debra Cafaro - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • And our win rates stayed high, too because a lot of the deals are really off market and bilateral in nature. And so that helps give us an advantage.

    而且我們的得標率也維持在高位,因為很多交易其實是場外(off market)且屬於雙邊(bilateral)性質。因此這有助於給我們帶來優勢。

  • Michael Stroyeck - Analyst

    Michael Stroyeck - Analyst

  • Got it. Makes sense. Maybe a separate question. You've highlighted the growth in operator count over the years. Just philosophically, how does the company think about operator count what are the gives and takes of greater operator diversification? And do you expect your operator count to grow or contract from here?

    了解。很合理。也許一個不同的問題。你們強調多年來營運商數量的成長。從理念上,公司如何看待營運商數量?更高的營運商多元化有哪些取捨?你們預期接下來營運商數量會增加還是減少?

  • J. Justin Hutchens - Executive Vice President - Senior Housing, Chief Investment Officer

    J. Justin Hutchens - Executive Vice President - Senior Housing, Chief Investment Officer

  • So Debbie mentioned in her prepared remarks that the fragmented nature of the sector. Most of the industry’s operators have 10 or fewer assets. So these are small operators. And then the large ones are usually around 100 or less. And so not particularly big. There's a few on the bigger side. So if you're going to invest in the space and you're going to do it at scale, you really need a platform that can accommodate multiple operators.

    Debbie 在事先準備的發言中提到,這個產業非常分散。大多數產業營運商擁有 10 個或更少的資產,所以這些都是小型營運商。而大型營運商通常也大約在 100 個資產或以下,因此也不算特別大。也有少數更大的。因此,如果你要在這個領域投資並且要做出規模,你確實需要一個能夠容納多家營運商的平台。

  • And so we're very focused on doing that right. And it starts with the operating selection criteria to ensure that that the operator has a strong local market focus and reputation. They have expertise in the particular product type that they're operating. The talent is experienced and the management team is a team that we can rely on to create value and deliver great care and services. The culture in senior housing is critical, so ensuring that they're measuring customer satisfaction, they're measuring employee satisfaction. They have initiatives in place to improve on those fronts and have strong engagement with their residents and their families. And then that's -- the managers can deliver growth and are these operators that we can do repeat business with and have more growth moving forward as well. And then will they engage with Ventas OI. And years ago, when we started putting the platform together, that was one of the big questions. It's no longer a question. It's become a competitive advantage and the engagement couldn’t be more collaborative, more positive, more impactful than it is. So we really like our competitive advantage to have more operators. And we have 44 now. Certainly, we continue to plan on growing within senior housing and believe to do that, you have to be able to manage… have a platform that can handle multiple operators.

    因此我們非常專注把這件事做好。它從營運商的遴選標準開始,以確保營運商在當地市場有強大的聚焦與口碑;他們在所營運的特定產品類型上具備專業;人才有經驗;管理團隊是我們可以信賴、能創造價值並提供優質照護與服務的團隊。高齡住宅的文化至關重要,因此要確保他們衡量客戶滿意度、衡量員工滿意度;在這些面向上有改善措施,並與住戶及其家屬保持高度互動。然後——管理者能否帶來成長?這些營運商是否是我們可以重複合作、並在未來帶來更多成長的對象?以及他們是否會與 Ventas OI 互動。多年前我們開始建立這個平台時,這是個重大問題。現在不再是問題了,它已成為競爭優勢,而且這種互動的協作程度、正向程度與影響力都前所未有。因此我們非常喜歡擁有更多營運商所帶來的競爭優勢。我們目前有 44 家。當然,我們仍計畫在高齡住宅領域持續成長,並相信要做到這點,你必須能夠管理……擁有一個能處理多家營運商的平台。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Mike Mueller, JPMorgan.

    JPMorgan 的 Mike Mueller。

  • Michael Mueller - Analyst

    Michael Mueller - Analyst

  • Just one here, for the US portfolio, what are your current thoughts on where your AL and IL occupancy should be able to max out to over time.

    這裡只有一個問題,針對美國投資組合,您目前對於隨著時間推移,AL 與 IL 的入住率各自應該能夠達到的最高水準有何看法?

  • J. Justin Hutchens - Executive Vice President - Senior Housing, Chief Investment Officer

    J. Justin Hutchens - Executive Vice President - Senior Housing, Chief Investment Officer

  • Well, that remains to be seen. We've had outperformance in our IL occupancy growth. And Debbie mentioned the demand kind of profile, and we're really not even to the point (technical difficulty) for our business yet. It's not surprising to see independent living. We've seen better performance in independent living as the baby boomer population start turning 80 this year. Assisted living has really strong demand as well. And we think both will have really strong demand, both will probably surpass previous industry highs and our goal is to outperform. So we'll tell you when we get there, but we would expect both categories to be well into the 90%.

    嗯,這還有待觀察。我們在 IL 入住率成長方面表現優於同業。Debbie 也提到需求的輪廓,而我們的業務其實還沒到那個點(技術問題)。看到獨立生活的表現並不令人意外。隨著嬰兒潮世代今年開始滿 80 歲,我們看到獨立生活有更好的表現。輔助生活的需求也非常強勁。我們認為兩者都會有非常強的需求,兩者可能都會超越過去產業高點,而我們的目標是表現優於同業。所以等我們到達時會告訴你,但我們預期兩個類別都會穩穩進入 90% 以上。

  • Debra Cafaro - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Debra Cafaro - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Justin should be the leader in the zero lost revenue days. So he won't be happy until every room is happily occupied by happy residents.

    Justin 應該會是「零流失營收天數」的領導者。所以在每一個房間都被快樂的住戶快樂地入住之前,他都不會滿意。

  • J. Justin Hutchens - Executive Vice President - Senior Housing, Chief Investment Officer

    J. Justin Hutchens - Executive Vice President - Senior Housing, Chief Investment Officer

  • Yes, keyword is happy because if you're delivering best-in-class care and services, then I think it's a mandate that people should live with us. And so we're going to do our best to deliver on that.

    是的,關鍵字是「快樂」,因為如果你提供同級最佳的照護與服務,那我認為人們就應該選擇住在我們這裡,這是一項使命。因此我們會盡最大努力把這件事做到位。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Nicholas Yulico, Scotiabank.

    Nicholas Yulico,豐業銀行(Scotiabank)。

  • Nicholas Yulico - Analyst

    Nicholas Yulico - Analyst

  • Just going back to Revel. I know you gave the stats on 6 years old on average, mid-70% occupancy on average. Can you just give us a feel, though, in terms of the vacancy? Is it more -- is it concentrated sort of evenly across the portfolio? Is there more in like recent deliveries?

    回到 Revel。我知道你提供了平均屋齡 6 年、平均入住率約 70% 中段的數據。不過能否請你談談空置的情況?是——是否大致平均分布在整個投資組合?還是較多集中在近期交付的物件?

  • J. Justin Hutchens - Executive Vice President - Senior Housing, Chief Investment Officer

    J. Justin Hutchens - Executive Vice President - Senior Housing, Chief Investment Officer

  • Yes, it's a little -- the vacancy is more in the more recent deliveries. We have -- there's a handful there stabilized and then there's the more recent deliveries that have the most upside. And so we were able to look at the track record of some of the early developments and see their lease-up once they got the new management team in place. And anticipate leveraging that approach, combined with the OI platform to deliver more occupancy growth where we have vacancy.

    是的,有一點——空置較多是在較近期交付的物件。我們有——其中有少數已經穩定,然後較近期交付的物件有最大的上行空間。因此我們能夠檢視一些早期開發案的過往紀錄,看看在導入新的管理團隊後其出租爬坡(lease-up)的情況,並預期運用那套方法,結合 OI 平台,在有空置的地方帶來更多入住率成長。

  • Nicholas Yulico - Analyst

    Nicholas Yulico - Analyst

  • Okay. And then my second question is for you, Debbie. We spent, I don't know, the vast majority of this call talking about senior housing. It's where you're having a lot of operating success. You're expanding your portfolio, but it still SHOP as 56% of NOI. So my question is about the rest of the portfolio? And how are you thinking about it? Because when we look at outpatient medical, research, IRF, LTAC, health systems, they're not realizing it's just sort of these are legacy investments when there was diversification within health care REITs. There's a move away from that now. They're kind of not adding to your growth rate or your multiple. So my question is, how are you thinking about that? And is there an opportunity to JV asset, sell them, how are you thinking about that? And what would be the sort of the trigger where you would look to perhaps reduce exposure there?

    好的。那我的第二個問題是給你,Debbie。我們這通電話我不知道——絕大多數時間都在談高齡住宅。這是你們營運成功很多的地方,你們也在擴張投資組合,但 SHOP 仍占 NOI 的 56%。所以我的問題是關於投資組合的其他部分?你們怎麼看待?因為當我們看門診醫療、研究、IRF、LTAC、醫療系統時,市場並不認為——這些比較像是過去醫療 REIT 追求多元化時留下的傳統投資。現在市場正在遠離那種配置。它們似乎沒有為你們的成長率或估值倍數加分。所以我的問題是,你們如何思考這些資產?是否有機會把資產做 JV、出售?你們怎麼看?以及什麼樣的觸發條件會讓你們考慮可能降低那邊的曝險?

  • Debra Cafaro - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Debra Cafaro - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Great. Well, when we developed our 1, 2, 3 strategy in 2023, the focus is on basically growing SHOP organically and externally. That's number 1 and 2. And number 3 is really to drive performance across the portfolio. And we have been successful in executing that strategy because as SHOP is growing fifth-year double-digit NOI growth, and we're adding $6-plus billion of investments in SHOP. We're seeing that become a much larger part of our portfolio, senior housing itself is over 60%. And the -- by definition, the other parts of the portfolio are becoming a smaller portion of the overall enterprise. And that is all part of the strategy. As far as actions, we've shown a willingness over time to take actions, to modify the portfolio when we really think it's going to create long-term value, and we're certainly open to that. But right now, our real focus is on growing SHOP organically and externally in that we're devoting all of our efforts to -- with great effect to that because we think it's creating value for stakeholders.

    很好。當我們在 2023 年制定 1、2、3 策略時,重點基本上是以內生與外延方式成長 SHOP。這是第 1 與第 2。第 3 則是推動整體投資組合的績效。我們在執行該策略上很成功,因為 SHOP 正在實現連續第五年的雙位數 NOI 成長,而且我們在 SHOP 上新增了超過 60 億美元的投資。我們看到它成為投資組合中更大的一部分,高齡住宅本身已超過 60%。而——按定義,投資組合的其他部分在整體企業中的占比正在變小。這都是策略的一部分。至於行動方面,我們長期以來展現出在我們確信能創造長期價值時,願意採取行動、調整投資組合,我們當然也對此保持開放。但目前我們真正的重點是以內生與外延方式成長 SHOP,我們把所有努力都投入在——而且效果很好——這件事上,因為我們認為這正在為利害關係人創造價值。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ronald Kamdem, Morgan Stanley.

    Ronald Kamdem,摩根士丹利。

  • Ronald Kamdem - Analyst

    Ronald Kamdem - Analyst

  • Just two quick ones. Just going back to pricing. I know the RevPAR guide was unchanged. But if you could talk about where the operators put out increases this year maybe versus last year? And maybe talk about how the philosophy about new versus renewal pricing, and where you think you could push?

    兩個很快的問題。回到定價。我知道 RevPAR 指引沒有變,但你能談談營運商今年提出的漲幅大概相較去年如何嗎?以及談談新租與續租的定價理念,以及你認為還能推進到什麼程度?

  • Debra Cafaro - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Debra Cafaro - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • The revenue guide obviously increased to about 8.75%, and Justin will comment on the in-place increases.

    營收指引顯然提高到約 8.75%,Justin 會評論既有合約的調漲幅度。

  • J. Justin Hutchens - Executive Vice President - Senior Housing, Chief Investment Officer

    J. Justin Hutchens - Executive Vice President - Senior Housing, Chief Investment Officer

  • Yes. We've had another good year. It was around 8% all-in in the January, which is where half the increases take place. It was around 7% last year. So we've seen improvement in that category. There's some underlying trends and move-in rents which are very favorable as well. And as we get into a period where demand continues to pick up and occupancies continue to go up, we would expect that to continue and still like all the occupancy upside opportunity though. So it's kind of volume first and then prices (technical difficulty) opportunity with rights down the road.

    是的。我們又有一個不錯的一年。1 月份整體約 8%(因為有一半的調漲發生在 1 月),去年約 7%。所以我們看到這個類別有所改善。入住租金(move-in rents)也有一些非常有利的基本趨勢。隨著我們進入需求持續回升、入住率持續上升的階段,我們預期這種趨勢會延續;同時我們仍然喜歡入住率上行的機會。所以有點像先衝量,然後價格(技術問題)機會在未來會有上行空間。

  • Ronald Kamdem - Analyst

    Ronald Kamdem - Analyst

  • Got it. That's helpful. And I guess just on the acquisition mix, I think a couple of years ago, you were much more focused on sort of the stabilized sort of assets. Obviously, with this Revel deal and maybe other deals upcoming, is this -- is there a sort of more of a shift to maybe taking on a little bit more lease-up risk given the better growth that given sort of your conviction of being to get those portfolios filled? I'm just wondering if is there's sort of a shift down versus what you were doing two or three years ago.

    了解,這很有幫助。我想再問收購組合。幾年前你們更專注於較穩定的資產。顯然有這筆 Revel 交易以及可能即將到來的其他交易,這是否——是否更偏向承擔一些出租爬坡風險,因為你們更有信心能把這些投資組合填滿、帶來更好的成長?我只是想了解,相較你們兩三年前在做的事情,是否有某種轉變。

  • J. Justin Hutchens - Executive Vice President - Senior Housing, Chief Investment Officer

    J. Justin Hutchens - Executive Vice President - Senior Housing, Chief Investment Officer

  • Sure. So the focus has really been to use the market, asset, operator framework to determine where we make investments. And obviously, if you get the market right and you have assets that can be competitive within those markets, you're well positioned. And then from there is finding the right operator, whether we're keeping operators in place or transitioning to new managers. And by the way, we're overwhelmingly keeping the operators. That's been our typical approach. And so once we get that right, then we're looking for the targeted returns, which at this stage are double digit to mid-teens. We've been delivering on low- to mid-teens.

    當然。我們的重點一直是使用「市場、資產、營運商」的框架來決定投資方向。顯然,如果市場選對了,而且資產在該市場具備競爭力,你就處於有利位置。接著就是找到合適的營運商,不論是保留原有營運商或轉換到新的管理團隊。順帶一提,我們絕大多數情況是保留原有營運商,這一直是我們的典型做法。當這些都到位後,我們就尋求目標報酬,在這個階段是雙位數到 10% 中段。我們一直交出 10% 低段到中段的表現。

  • Debra Cafaro - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Debra Cafaro - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Unlevered.

    未加槓桿。

  • J. Justin Hutchens - Executive Vice President - Senior Housing, Chief Investment Officer

    J. Justin Hutchens - Executive Vice President - Senior Housing, Chief Investment Officer

  • Unlevered IRRs over the past few years. We've had a wide variety of different types of senior housing communities deliver on our underwritten expectations so far, and some of those did include value-add opportunities. This one just happens to be a little bit bigger. And so we're able to showcase it as a case study. And we'd anticipate really repeating the playbook moving forward.

    過去幾年我們的未加槓桿 IRR。我們有各式各樣不同類型的高齡住宅社區,迄今都達成我們承銷時的預期,其中一些確實包含增值(value-add)機會。這一筆剛好規模更大一些,因此我們能把它作為案例研究來展示。我們也預期未來會重複這套作法。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And there are no further questions at this time. I will now hand the call back over to Deborah Cafaro, Chairman and CEO of Ventas for closing remarks.

    目前沒有其他問題。我現在把電話交回 Ventas 董事長兼執行長 Deborah Cafaro 作結語。

  • Debra Cafaro - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Debra Cafaro - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thanks, Bailey, and thanks to all of you for joining us today and for your interest in Ventas as we drive forward on this multiyear growth and value creation opportunity. And we look forward to seeing you in person soon.

    謝謝你,Bailey,也謝謝各位今天加入我們,並關注 Ventas,因為我們正推進這個多年期的成長與價值創造機會。我們也期待很快能與各位面對面見面。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

    謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以掛線。