芬塔 (VTR) 2025 Q4 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you for standing by. My name is Genie, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Ventas fourth-quarter 2025 earnings call.

    感謝您的耐心等待。我叫吉妮,今天我將擔任你們的會議接線生。在此,我謹代表 Ventas 公司歡迎各位參加 2025 年第四季財報電話會議。

  • (Operator Instructions) I would now like to turn the call over to BJ Grant, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. You may begin.

    (操作員指示)現在我將把電話交給投資者關係資深副總裁 BJ Grant。你可以開始了。

  • Bill Grant - Senior Vice President of Investor Relations

    Bill Grant - Senior Vice President of Investor Relations

  • Thank you, Genie. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the Ventas fourth-quarter and full year 2025 results conference call. Yesterday, we issued our fourth quarter and full year 2025 earnings release, presentation materials, and supplemental information package which are available on the Ventas website at ir.ventasreit.com. As a reminder, remarks today may include forward-looking statements and other matters. Forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, and a variety of topics may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in such statements.

    謝謝你,吉妮。各位早安,歡迎參加 Ventas 2025 年第四季及全年業績電話會議。昨天,我們發布了2025年第四季及全年財報、簡報資料和補充資訊包,這些文件可在Ventas網站ir.ventasreit.com上查閱。再次提醒,今天的發言可能包含前瞻性陳述及其他事項。前瞻性陳述存在風險和不確定性,多種因素可能導致實際結果與此類陳述中設想的結果有重大差異。

  • For a more detailed discussion of those factors, please refer to our earnings release for this quarter and to our most recent SEC filings, all of which are available on the Ventas website. Certain non-GAAP financial measures will also be discussed on this call and for a reconciliation of these measures to the most closely comparable GAAP measures, please refer to our supplemental information package posted on the Investor Relations website.

    有關這些因素的更詳細討論,請參閱我們本季的收益報告和我們最新的美國證券交易委員會文件,所有這些文件都可以在 Ventas 網站上找到。本次電話會議也將討論某些非GAAP財務指標,有關這些指標與最接近的GAAP指標的調節表,請參閱我們發佈在投資者關係網站上的補充資訊包。

  • And with that, I'll turn the call over to Debra A. Cafaro, Chairman and CEO of Ventas.

    接下來,我將把電話交給 Ventas 董事長兼執行長 Debra A. Cafaro。

  • Debra Cafaro - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Debra Cafaro - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you, BJ. I want to welcome all of our shareholders and other participants to the Ventas fourth quarter and full year 2025 earnings call. 2025 was an outstanding year for Ventas. We delivered strong results from the execution of our 1-2-3 strategy focused on senior housing, as secular demand from a large and growing aging population strengthens and supply remains constrained. We are intent on the significant value creation opportunity ahead.

    謝謝你,BJ。我謹代表Ventas公司歡迎所有股東及其他與會人員參加2025年第四季及全年業績電話會議。 2025年對Ventas來說是輝煌的一年。隨著龐大且不斷增長的老齡人口的長期需求增強,而供應仍然受限,我們執行了以老年住房為重點的 1-2-3 戰略,並取得了強勁的成果。我們決心抓住未來巨大的價值創造機會。

  • We plan to use our advantaged position, proprietary Ventas Operational Insights platform, financial strength, and industry relationships to capture the unprecedented multiyear growth opportunity in senior housing while we also help individuals live longer, healthier, and happier lives. In 2025, we drove growth at scale. Our normalized FFO per share increased by 9% and our same-store SHOP cash net operating income grew 15%, our fourth consecutive year of double-digit SHOP NOI growth. Our enterprise value exceeded $50 billion and our fourth quarter annualized NOI and SHOP NOI reached $2.5 billion and $1.3 billion, respectively. We raised $7 billion of capital from a wide array of sources at attractive prices during the year.

    我們計劃利用我們的優勢地位、專有的 Ventas Operational Insights 平台、財務實力和行業關係,抓住老年住房領域前所未有的多年增長機遇,同時幫助人們過上更長壽、更健康、更幸福的生活。2025年,我們實現了規模化成長。我們的正常化每股 FFO 成長了 9%,同店 SHOP 現金淨營業收入成長了 15%,這是我們連續第四年 SHOP NOI 實現兩位數成長。我們的企業價值超過 500 億美元,第四季年化淨營業收入和門市淨營業收入分別達到 25 億美元和 13 億美元。今年我們以優惠的價格從各種管道籌集了70億美元的資金。

  • Our investment activity also accelerated as we closed $2.5 billion of high-quality senior housing investments that enhance our enterprise growth. By year-end, we owned over 83,000 SHOP units and 53% of our NOI was generated by our SHOP communities. Our investors were rewarded in 2025 as Ventas delivered total shareholder returns of 35%, significantly outperforming our industry benchmarks by wide margins and the S&P 500 in a year when it reached record highs. The Ventas team has been outstanding in its commitment to each other and to excellence as we've worked together to deliver value and performance across our stakeholder base. We are keenly focused on the multiyear NOI growth and value creation opportunities ahead.

    我們的投資活動也隨之加速,我們完成了 25 億美元的高品質養老住房投資,這促進了我們企業的成長。到年底,我們擁有超過 83,000 個 SHOP 單元,53% 的 NOI 來自我們的 SHOP 社區。2025 年,Ventas 為我們的投資者帶來了豐厚的回報,股東總回報率達到 35%,大幅超越了行業基準,並在標普 500 指數創下歷史新高的一年中也取得了優異成績。Ventas 團隊在彼此合作和追求卓越的過程中表現出色,我們共同努力為所有利害關係人創造了價值和績效。我們高度關注未來多年的營業淨收入成長和價值創造機會。

  • Let's start with the durable and powerful demand trends in senior housing. This year marks a historic demographic inflection point when baby boomers start to turn 80. This cohort of nearly 70 million individuals is the wealthiest generation ever. As the baby boomers age, the over-80 population should grow 28% in the next five years and double in two decades. Today, more people than ever are choosing senior housing for the valuable benefits it provides at an affordable cost that is comparable to the cost of staying at home.

    讓我們先來看看老年住房領域持久而強勁的需求趨勢。今年標誌著一個歷史性的人口結構轉捩點,嬰兒潮世代開始步入80歲。這近7000萬人是史上最富有的一代。隨著嬰兒潮世代逐漸老去,未來五年內80歲以上人口預計將增加28%,二十年後將翻倍。如今,越來越多的人選擇入住老年公寓,因為它能以與居家養老相當的經濟實惠的價格提供諸多益處。

  • Senior housing is a consumer-driven, private-pay business that provides important support, socialization, and safety benefits to residents. We were once again reminded of the value of senior housing during the recent winter storms, when care providers across the country kept residents safe, warm, and well cared for in our communities, while many seniors living alone lost power and heat. Meanwhile, the new supply of senior housing continues to hover around all-time lows. To put this in context, there were only about 2,500 new senior housing units started in the fourth quarter of 2025. While we expect over 2 million people to turn 80 in 2026.

    老年住房是由消費者驅動的自費產業,為居民提供重要的支持、社交和安全保障。在最近的冬季風暴中,我們再次體會到了老年住房的價值。當時,全國各地的護理人員確保了居民在社區中的安全、溫暖和良好的照顧,而許多獨居老人卻失去了電力和暖氣。與此同時,老年住房的新增供應量繼續徘徊在歷史低點附近。換個角度來看,2025 年第四季新開工的老年住房單位只有大約 2500 套。我們預計到 2026 年將有超過 200 萬人年滿 80 歲。

  • Both sides of this demand-supply imbalance are weighted strongly in our favor, and Ventas is exceedingly well positioned to capitalize on this unprecedented opportunity. With a long runway ahead, we intend to continue executing our strategic vision of, one, delivering outsized senior housing organic growth; two, making value-creating investments focused on senior housing; and three, driving cash flow throughout our portfolio. We also want to extend our trajectory of enhanced financial strength and flexibility.

    這種供需失衡的局面,雙方都對我們非常有利,Ventas 已經做好充分準備,抓住這前所未有的機會。未來還有很長的路要走,我們打算繼續執行我們的戰略願景,即:一、實現老年住房的超大有機增長;二、進行專注於老年住房的價值創造型投資;三、推動我們整個投資組合的現金流。我們也希望繼續提升財務實力和靈活性。

  • Ventas has built a scale platform to drive outperformance. Our experienced team, proprietary analytics tools, strong balance sheet, data capture, and industry relationships give us a competitive moat in senior housing that continues to expand.

    Ventas 建構了一個規模化平台,以實現卓越績效。我們經驗豐富的團隊、專有的分析工具、強大的資產負債表、數據收集和行業關係,使我們在養老住房領域擁有不斷擴大的競爭優勢。

  • With our vision, strategy, and market positioning in place, I'll close on our 2026 operating guidance, investment activities, and dividend increase. In 2026, we expect to deliver high single-digit growth in normalized FFO per share led by SHOP. We expect SHOP to produce our fifth consecutive year of double-digit same-store cash NOI growth with occupancy, rate, and margin, all showing healthy year-over-year increases. Our total company same-store cash NOI growth should be nearly 10% in 2026. On the investment front, our team and our pipeline are extremely active.

    鑑於我們的願景、策略和市場定位已經到位,我將最後介紹我們 2026 年的營運指導、投資活動和股息成長。預計 2026 年,在 SHOP 的帶動下,每股正常化 FFO 將實現高個位數成長。我們預計 SHOP 將連續第五年實現兩位數的同店現金 NOI 成長,入住率、房價和利潤率均將實現健康的年增長。到 2026 年,我們公司同店現金淨營業收入 (NOI) 總成長率應該接近 10%。在投資方面,我們的團隊和專案儲備都非常活躍。

  • Our number one capital allocation priority remains US senior housing. We've already closed over $800 million in high-quality senior housing acquisitions year-to-date and we are highly confident we can complete $2.5 billion of investments focused on senior housing this year. We intend to remain aggressive in expanding our senior housing business through investment activity that provides attractive risk-adjusted returns and enhances our enterprise growth rate.

    我們首要的資本配置重點仍是美國老年住房市場。今年迄今為止,我們已經完成了超過 8 億美元的高品質老年住房收購,我們非常有信心今年能夠完成 25 億美元的專注於老年住房的投資。我們計劃繼續積極拓展老年住房業務,透過投資活動提供具有吸引力的風險調整後收益,並提高企業成長率。

  • Finally, I'm pleased to share that our Board of Directors has approved an 8% increase in our quarterly dividend on the strength of our performance and positive multiyear outlook. Earnings and dividend growth are important components of the Ventas investment thesis. The whole Ventas team is aligned and focused on continued outperformance at scale, and we're in it to win it.

    最後,我很高興地宣布,鑑於我們良好的業績和積極的多年前景,董事會已批准將季度股息提高 8%。獲利和股息成長是 Ventas 投資理念的重要組成部分。Ventas 的整個團隊目標一致,專注於持續擴大規模並取得優異成績,我們志在必得。

  • With that, I'm happy to turn the call over to Justin.

    這樣,我很高興把電話交給賈斯汀。

  • J. Justin Hutchens - Executive Vice President - Senior Housing, Chief Investment Officer

    J. Justin Hutchens - Executive Vice President - Senior Housing, Chief Investment Officer

  • Thank you, Debbie. I'm pleased to share the results of a successful 2025 with both organic and external growth in our senior housing business. I'll start with SHOP. We had a really strong fourth quarter in our SHOP same-store portfolio. Revenue grew over 8%, led by occupancy growth of 300 basis points year-over-year and 100 basis points sequentially, demonstrating strong demand and sales execution.

    謝謝你,黛比。我很高興與大家分享我們在2025年取得的成功成果,我們的養老住房業務實現了內生成長和外延成長。我先從商店開始。我們的 SHOP 同店銷售組合在第四季表現非常強勁。營收成長超過 8%,主要得益於入住率年增 300 個基點,較上季成長 100 個基點,顯示市場需求強勁,銷售執行力強。

  • The occupancy growth was led by the US at 370 basis points, with a particularly strong contribution from our independent living communities. Furthermore, our communities in the US top 99 markets outperformed NIC by 160 basis points. RevPOR grew 4.7%, even with the mix impact of the outsized occupancy growth in our lower-priced independent living portfolio. NOI grew 15.4% year-over-year in the fourth quarter, led by the US with 18%.

    入住率成長主要由美國引領,成長了 370 個基點,其中獨立生活社區的貢獻尤為強勁。此外,我們在美國前 99 個市場的社群表現比 NIC 高出 160 個基點。即使受到低價獨立生活物業組合入住率大幅增加的影響,RevPOR 仍增加了 4.7%。第四季淨營業收入年增 15.4%,其中美國成長最快,達 18%。

  • Margin grew 180 basis points to over 28% driven by 50% incremental margin. A quick note as I reflect on the full year, I'm particularly proud about the occupancy. We achieved a better-than-expected 280 basis points of average occupancy growth across the portfolio led by the US with 350 basis points. Once again, we saw broad-based contributions to SHOP performance across our operating partners, such as Sunrise, Atria, Discovery, Sinceri, Senior Lifestyles, and Le Groupe Maurice, who continue to deliver exceptional care and services to our senior population and very strong financial results.

    利潤率成長 180 個基點,超過 28%,主要得益於利潤率成長 50%。回顧過去一年,我特別自豪的是入住率。我們實現了比預期更好的平均入住率成長,達到 280 個基點,其中美國市場成長最為顯著,達到 350 個基點。我們再次看到,我們的營運合作夥伴,如 Sunrise、Atria、Discovery、Sinceri、Senior Lifestyles 和 Le Groupe Maurice,為 SHOP 的業績做出了廣泛的貢獻,他們繼續為我們的老年群體提供卓越的護理和服務,並取得了非常強勁的財務業績。

  • Looking ahead, we see significant opportunities for growth across multiple areas. We have spent the past several years taking numerous actions to ensure we are ready to meet this moment of accelerating demand in senior housing. We are positioned for continued organic growth and occupancy rate and operating leverage across the SHOP portfolio. Our US portfolio is well positioned for a long runway of growth at only 86% occupancy.

    展望未來,我們看到多個領域都存在著巨大的成長機會。過去幾年,我們採取了多項措施,以確保我們能夠應對當前老年住房需求加速成長的局面。我們已做好準備,在整個 SHOP 投資組合中實現持續的自然成長、入住率和營運槓桿。我們在美國的業務組合目前入住率僅為 86%,具備長期成長的良好基礎。

  • We expect contributions to growth across the portfolio and particularly growth drivers will include our new high-quality, high-performing acquisitions, the 45 communities that were transitioned from the triple net lease with Brookdale to SHOP, and our evolving Ventas OI execution in collaboration with our operators across the broader portfolio. With this backdrop, I'm pleased to give our 2026 guidance for SHOP. We expect the same-store NOI growth range of 13% to 17%, driven by occupancy growth of 270 basis points year-over-year and RevPAR growth of 5% supported by in-house rent increase assumptions of 8%, which are stronger than the past couple of years.

    我們預計,對整個投資組合成長的貢獻,特別是成長動力,將包括我們新的高品質、高績效收購項目、從與 Brookdale 的三方淨租賃過渡到 SHOP 的 45 個社區,以及我們與整個投資組合中的營運商合作,不斷發展的 Ventas OI 執行。在此背景下,我很高興地向大家介紹我們 2026 年 SHOP 的發展方向。我們預計同店淨營業收入成長範圍為 13% 至 17%,這主要得益於入住率同比增長 270 個基點以及每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 增長 5%,而內部租金增長假設為 8%,這一增長幅度高於過去幾年。

  • Operating expenses are expected to grow 5% again this year as we continue to add occupancy. I'd note that we've included modestly higher expenses in the first quarter, reflecting the recent severe weather across the US. With these components and the positive operating leverage, we expect that margin will continue to expand in 2026.

    隨著入住率的持續提高,預計今年的營運費用將再次成長 5%。需要指出的是,由於近期美國各地遭遇惡劣天氣,我們在第一季計入了略微增加的支出。憑藉這些要素和積極的經營槓桿,我們預計 2026 年利潤率將繼續擴大。

  • Summarizing guidance, we are looking forward to our fifth year in a row of double-digit SHOP NOI growth with 15% at the midpoint. I'll give a quick update regarding the 45 transitions of former Brookdale communities. They have fully converted the SHOP and are now operated by five experienced transition partners whose senior leadership teams are highly engaged. Capital refresh projects are underway with most expected to be completed ahead of the key selling season.

    綜上所述,我們預期連續第五年實現兩位數的 SHOP NOI 成長,中位數為 15%。我將簡要報告前 Brookdale 社區的 45 個過渡情況。他們已對 SHOP 進行了全面改造,現在由五位經驗豐富的過渡合作夥伴運營,他們的高階領導團隊積極參與其中。資本更新項目正在進行中,預計大部分項目將在銷售旺季之前完成。

  • While still early, we anticipate modest NOI growth in 2026 and remain confident in the long-term opportunity to double NOI across this group of communities. At the core of what we do is delivering a high-quality living experience for our residents. Our communities support safety, connection, and independence while providing the amenities, professional care, and services that enhance daily life, creating peace of mind for the families of residents. That experience is delivered at a compelling value proposition. On average, residents can afford to live in our communities almost 7 times longer than the typical length of stay.

    雖然現在下結論還為時過早,但我們預計 2026 年 NOI 將溫和增長,並且仍然對長期實現這組社區 NOI 翻番的機會充滿信心。我們工作的核心是為居民提供高品質的生活體驗。我們的社區致力於保障安全、促進人際關係和保障獨立性,同時提供各種便利設施、專業照護和服務,以提升居民的日常生活,讓居民的家人安心。這種體驗以極具吸引力的價值主張提供。平均而言,居民在我們社區的居住時間幾乎是通常居住時間的 7 倍。

  • The quality of care and services we provide is reflected in strong resident outcomes across our portfolio. For instance, at Atria Senior Living, we've seen a third consecutive year of improvement in Net Promoter Scores, signaling growing advocacy among residents and their families and continued outperformance versus industry benchmarks. Le Groupe Maurice has also been recognized for the sixth consecutive year as the leading senior housing brand in Quebec based on an independent survey evaluating safety, building quality, programming, service levels, and the quality of staff. More than 70% of Sunrise's communities are in the best senior living rating by US News & World Report, further validating their strong customer engagement and ability to deliver a differentiated experience for residents and families. Furthermore, Discovery Senior Living achieved a number one JD Power customer satisfaction ranking, validating their ability to integrate communities, improve performance, and sustain resident experience. It's no wonder there is increasing demand for senior housing.

    我們提供的照護和服務品質體現在我們旗下所有機構的住戶所取得的良好成果。例如,在 Atria Senior Living,我們的淨推薦值連續第三年提高,這表明居民及其家人對我們的支持度不斷提高,並且我們持續優於行業基準。根據一項獨立調查,莫里斯集團連續第六年被評為魁北克省領先的高級住宅品牌,該調查評估了安全性、建築品質、專案安排、服務水準和員工素質。Sunrise 旗下超過 70% 的社區在《美國新聞與世界報道》的高級生活評級中名列前茅,進一步證明了其強大的客戶參與度和為居民及其家人提供差異化體驗的能力。此外,Discovery Senior Living 在 JD Power 客戶滿意度排名中位列第一,證明了其在整合社區、提升績效和維持居民體驗方面的能力。難怪老年住房的需求不斷增長。

  • Today, we partner with 43 operators across our SHOP portfolio, providing meaningful coverage across the senior housing continuum of care, diverse geographies, and a wide range of price points. Importantly, as more operators and communities are integrated into the platform, our data and analytics capabilities become increasingly powerful, reinforcing the network effects that drive performance and widening our competitive moat relative to other owners of senior housing. Our ability to manage senior housing at scale is a core competitive advantage. Our differentiated platform allows us to support a broad range of operators, enabling us to match the right operator with each community in each market and capture incremental growth opportunities.

    今天,我們與 SHOP 旗下 43 家業者合作,為老年住房護理的各個環節、不同的地理和各種價位提供有意義的覆蓋。重要的是,隨著越來越多的營運商和社區融入平台,我們的數據和分析能力變得越來越強大,從而增強了推動業績的網路效應,並擴大了我們相對於其他老年住房所有者的競爭優勢。我們大規模管理養老住房的能力是我們的核心競爭優勢。我們差異化的平台使我們能夠支援各種類型的營運商,從而為每個市場中的每個社群匹配合適的營運商,並抓住增量成長機會。

  • Ventas OI execution is at an all-time high. In 2025, we significantly deepened our collaboration with operators through site visits, senior management meetings, operator summits, and active asset management. This engagement enables us to work shoulder to shoulder with our operators on key priorities such as NOI-driving CapEx, dynamic pricing, sales execution, and rigorous benchmarking across key operating metrics, all in support of our relentless pursuit of creating environments where seniors thrive and investments flourish. We plan to further elevate this engagement as we meaningfully expand the capabilities of our senior housing team and enhance our interdisciplinary approach to supporting and growing our network of high-performing operators. Furthermore, the Ventas OI platform is also technology agnostic, meaning operators can plug into Ventas OI from a wide variety of operating systems contributing to our ability to scale.

    Ventas OI 的執行力達到了歷史最高水準。2025年,我們透過實地考察、高階管理會議、營運商高峰會和積極的資產管理,顯著深化了與營運商的合作。透過此次合作,我們能夠與營運商並肩工作,共同推進關鍵優先事項,例如推動淨營業收入成長的資本支出、動態定價、銷售執行以及對關鍵營運指標的嚴格基準測試,所有這些都是為了支持我們不懈地追求創造讓老年人安居樂業、投資蓬勃發展的環境。我們計劃進一步提升這種參與度,切實增強我們高級住房團隊的能力,並加強我們支持和發展高績效運營商網絡的跨學科方法。此外,Ventas OI 平台也具有技術無關性,這意味著營運商可以從各種作業系統接入 Ventas OI,這有助於我們擴展規模。

  • Now turning to investments. We concluded 2025 with $2.5 billion of senior housing acquisitions. We really like what we've been buying. Our senior housing investments are squarely within our right market, right asset, right operator framework, improved Ventas' overall SHOP portfolio quality, are poised for outperformance due to favorable supply and demand dynamics, and increase the company's enterprise growth rate. In the aggregate, these investments have already created significant value based on the strong operating performance achieved under our ownership that is in line with our expectations.

    現在來說說投資。2025年底,我們完成了25億美元的退休房屋收購。我們非常喜歡我們買的東西。我們的退休住房投資完全符合我們「正確的市場、正確的資產、正確的運營商」的框架,提高了 Ventas 整體 SHOP 投資組合的質量,由於有利的供需動態,有望取得優異的業績,並提高公司的企業增長率。整體而言,這些投資已經創造了巨大的價值,這得益於我們所有權下取得的強勁經營業績,符合我們的預期。

  • 2026 is off to a strong start with over $800 million of wholly owned senior housing investments across seven transactions closed already this year. This brings our cumulative senior housing acquisitions to $4.8 billion in a little over a year.

    2026 年開局強勁,今年已完成七筆交易,全部投資額超過 8 億美元,全部為全資擁有的養老住房項目。這使得我們在一年多一點的時間裡,累積收購老年住房的金額達到了 48 億美元。

  • For the full year of 2026, we're providing guidance of $2.5 billion of investments focused on senior housing and we have high confidence in achieving this amount given the momentum we continue to see in our pipeline.

    2026 年全年,我們預計投資額將達到 25 億美元,重點用於老年住房領域。鑑於我們目前在專案儲備方面持續取得的良好勢頭,我們對實現這一目標充滿信心。

  • While competition for senior housing assets has increased as additional capital flows into the sector, Ventas is uniquely positioned to deploy capital where we have strong conviction and where we can fully leverage our differentiated competitive advantages.

    隨著更多資本流入老年住房行業,老年住房資產的競爭日益激烈,但 Ventas 憑藉其獨特的優勢,能夠將資本部署到我們堅信的領域,並充分發揮我們差異化的競爭優勢。

  • Our scale, relationships, and operating expertise allow us to aggressively pursue opportunities where we believe we are best positioned to create value. We are seeing a broader and more diverse set of potential transactions in the market across a range of investment profiles.

    憑藉我們的規模、人脈和營運專長,我們能夠積極尋求我們認為最能創造價值的機會。我們看到市場上出現了更廣泛、更多樣化的潛在交易,涵蓋了各種投資類型。

  • We seek senior housing investments that combine durable in-place cash flow and growth with the potential to generate attractive risk-adjusted returns consistent with our low double-digit to mid-teens unlevered IRR targets. Our relationship-driven approach to sourcing, structuring, and executing transactions, combined with the continually expanding network of high-quality operator relationships continues to provide Ventas with differentiated access and the ability to win compelling opportunities.

    我們尋求的養老住房投資項目,既要具備持久的現有現金流和增長潛力,又要有潛力產生符合我們兩位數低至十幾的無槓桿內部收益率目標的有吸引力的風險調整後收益。我們以關係為導向的交易搜尋、架構和執行方式,加上不斷擴大的高品質營運商關係網絡,持續為 Ventas 提供差異化的管道和贏得引人注目的機會的能力。

  • Ventas remains a senior housing partner of choice for operators seeking the benefits of Ventas OI and the scale, capital, and operating support of our platform. Since 2024, over 70% of our transactions have been with pre-existing operator relationships. Sellers are equally focused on repeat business, reflecting our consistent execution and reliability of the counterparty, which in turn creates incremental opportunities for follow-on investments. Over the past year, more than 50% of our transactions were with repeat sellers. In closing, we are looking forward to an exciting 2026 as we continue to drive organic and external growth in our senior housing business.

    Ventas 仍然是尋求 Ventas OI 優勢以及我們平台規模、資金和營運支援的高級住房營運商的首選合作夥伴。自 2024 年以來,我們超過 70% 的交易都是與先前已建立合作關係的營運商進行的。賣方同樣注重回頭客業務,這反映了我們一致的執行力和交易對手的可靠性,進而為後續投資創造了更多機會。過去一年中,超過 50% 的交易都是與回頭客進行的。最後,我們期待著令人振奮的 2026 年,我們將繼續推動老年住房業務的內生式和外延式成長。

  • Now I'll hand the call to Bob.

    現在我把電話交給鮑伯。

  • Robert Probst - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Robert Probst - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Thank you, Justin. I'll share highlights of our fourth quarter and full year 2025 performance, our recent capital raising activities, and we'll close with our 2026 outlook. We finished 2025 strong with 10% year over year growth in normalized FFO per share in the fourth quarter. This increase was driven by same-store property growth of 8%, led by SHOP, which increased 15%. Our outpatient medical and research, or OMAR, business grew same-store cash NOI by nearly 4% year-over-year in the fourth quarter. Outpatient medical same-store NOI increased by 4.5%. Occupancy in outpatient medical reached almost 91% in the fourth quarter, the sixth consecutive quarter of year-over-year occupancy growth. Our outpatient medical in-house property management teams have delivered six straight quarters of TTM retention exceeding 85% and very strong tenant satisfaction. Meanwhile, our research portfolio, which represents 8% of total NOI, grew same-store NOI by 30 basis points year-over-year supported by occupancy gains from university tenants.

    謝謝你,賈斯汀。我將分享我們 2025 年第四季和全年業績的亮點、我們最近的融資活動,最後我們將展望 2026 年。2025 年第四季度,我們實現了經調整後的每股 FFO 年成長 10%,業績強勁收官。這一增長主要得益於同店物業增長 8%,其中 SHOP 增長了 15%。我們的門診醫療和研究業務(OMAR)第四季度同店現金淨營業收入年增近 4%。門診醫療同店淨營業收入成長了 4.5%。第四季門診醫療入住率接近 91%,這是連續第六個季度年增。我們的門診醫療機構內部物業管理團隊已連續六個季度保持超過 85% 的 TTM 續租率,並且租戶滿意度非常高。同時,我們的研究投資組合佔總淨營業收入的 8%,在大學租戶入住率提高的支持下,同店淨營業收入同比增長了 30 個基點。

  • Looking at our full year results. We delivered normalized FFO of $3.48 per share, a 9% year-over-year increase and at the high end of our guidance range. This growth was achieved through solid execution of our 1-2-3 strategy, led by SHOP organic NOI growth and $2.5 billion of accretive senior housing investments. Strong organic growth in equity funded investments also worked together to improve our leverage to 5.2 times in the fourth quarter, the best it's been since 2012.

    查看我們全年的業績。我們實現了每股3.48美元的正常化FFO,年成長9%,達到我們預期範圍的高端。這一增長是透過我們 1-2-3 策略的有效執行實現的,其中 SHOP 的有機 NOI 成長和 25 億美元的增值型老年住房投資是主要驅動力。股權投資的強勁內生成長也共同作用,使我們的槓桿率在第四季度降至 5.2 倍,這是自 2012 年以來的最佳水平。

  • Since the beginning of 2025, we demonstrated our advantaged access to multiple pools of capital. We raised over $7 billion since the start of last year, including nearly $4 billion in bank, bonds and mortgage debt and $3.2 billion of equity issuance. We have $1.2 billion of unsettled equity to fund future investments. I'd highlight that our leverage pro forma for the unsettled equity is approaching 5 times, and our growth outlook in 2026 suggests the trend of lower leverage is expected to continue.

    自 2025 年初以來,我們展現了我們在獲取多筆資金方面的優勢。自去年初以來,我們已籌集超過 70 億美元,其中包括近 40 億美元的銀行貸款、債券和抵押貸款,以及 32 億美元的股權發行。我們擁有12億美元的未結算股權,可用於未來的投資。我想強調的是,我們未結算權益的槓桿率預計接近 5 倍,而我們對 2026 年的成長展望表明,槓桿率下降的趨勢預計將會持續。

  • Let's conclude with our full year 2026 growth outlook. For 2026, we expect net income of $0.57 per share at the midpoint. We expect 2026 normalized FFO per share to range from $3.78 to $3.88 or $3.83 at the midpoint. This guidance midpoint represents 8% year-over-year growth on a comparable basis.

    最後,讓我們展望一下2026年全年的成長前景。我們預計 2026 年每股淨收入為 0.57 美元(取中間值)。我們預計 2026 年每股正常化 FFO 將在 3.78 美元至 3.88 美元之間,中間值為 3.83 美元。此預期中位數代表以可比較口徑計算年增 8%。

  • The building blocks of our guidance are similar to 2025 and are driven by our strategy. The 8% growth in normalized FFO per share or $0.27 per share is expected to be led by shop NOI growth and accretive investment activity, netted against offsets, including the expiration of noncash rental income from Brookdale and higher net interest expense from refinancing maturing debt. Our total company same-store cash NOI guidance midpoint increase of nearly 10% year-over-year is led by SHOP at 15%.

    我們的指導原則與 2025 年類似,並以我們的策略為驅動。預計每股正常化FFO成長8%或每股0.27美元,主要得益於門市NOI成長及增值投資活動,但需抵銷Brookdale非現金租金收入到期及到期債務再融資導致的淨利息支出增加等因素。我們公司整體同店現金淨營業收入預期中位數為年增近 10%,其中 SHOP 的增幅最大,達 15%。

  • Our OMAR same-store guidance midpoint of 2.5% is consistent with our growth in 2025 and is led by growth in outpatient medical. Triple-net is expected to grow over 4%, led by cash rent increases in January for Brookdale in our triple-net senior housing business. I'd note that beginning in 2026, and as reflected in guidance, our normalized FFO will exclude noncash stock-based compensation expense, which had $0.08 per share impact in both '25 and '26, as adjusted it has no effect on our year-over-year growth rate. Our guidance also includes equity funded investments of $2.5 billion focused on senior housing. G&A growth in 2026 on a cash basis is generally in line with the growth of our enterprise, or in the low $150 million range in 2026. We are investing in our organization in support of the company's increased asset base and expanding asset management initiatives. A more fulsome discussion of our guidance assumptions can be found in our Q4 supplemental and earnings presentation posted to our website. To close, we are extremely pleased with our 2025 performance. The entire Ventas team is determined to continue to deliver outperformance at scale and superior performance for our shareholders.

    我們對 OMAR 同店銷售成長的預期中位數為 2.5%,這與我們 2025 年的成長預期一致,並將主要由門診醫療業務的成長帶動。預計三淨租賃業務將成長超過 4%,主要得益於 Brookdale 在我們三淨租賃老年住房業務中 1 月份的現金租金上漲。需要指出的是,從 2026 年開始,正如我們的指導意見所反映的那樣,我們調整後的 FFO 將不包括非現金股票期權費用,該費用在 2025 年和 2026 年均對每股造成了 0.08 美元的影響,但經調整後,它對我們的同比增長率沒有影響。我們的投資方向還包括25億美元的股權投資,重點是老年住房領域。2026 年 G&A 現金成長與公司整體成長基本一致,預計 2026 年 G&A 成長額將達到 1.5 億美元左右。我們正在對公司進行投資,以支持公司不斷增長的資產基礎和不斷擴大的資產管理計劃。有關我們業績指引假設的更詳細討論,請參閱我們網站上發布的第四季度補充報告和收益簡報。最後,我們對2025年的表現非常滿意。Ventas 全體團隊決心繼續實現規模化的超額收益,並為我們的股東帶來卓越的績效。

  • With that, I'll turn the call back to the operator.

    這樣,我就把電話轉回接線生了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Jim Kammert, Evercore.

    (操作說明)Jim Kammert,Evercore。

  • James Kammert - Equity Analyst

    James Kammert - Equity Analyst

  • Bob, just finishing up on your comment there. On the Brookdale sort of reset on the triple-net side, obviously, 4% is because of the rent bump -- but prospectively, that's kind of -- it goes back to a 1% to 1.5% kind of business. Is that a reasonable assumption for the triple net as a whole?

    鮑勃,我正在回覆你的評論。就 Brookdale 的三淨租賃業務而言,顯然,4% 的漲幅是因為租金上漲——但從長遠來看,這有點像——它將回到 1% 到 1.5% 的水平。對於整個三方淨資產而言,這是一個合理的假設嗎?

  • Robert Probst - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Robert Probst - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes, Jim, I would say more like 3% on average for escalators. Obviously, the January Brookdale increase is outsized, but that would be a run rate assumption outside of that.

    是的,吉姆,我認為自動扶梯的平均費用應該在 3% 左右。顯然,1 月 Brookdale 的成長幅度過大,但這只是一個脫離實際情況的運行率假設。

  • James Kammert - Equity Analyst

    James Kammert - Equity Analyst

  • Okay. That's great. And then another housekeeping. In the guidance, obviously, you have the quest to continue to gradually deleverage. And with the 503 million or so expected average shares of '26, would it imply for the year-end count sort of like a 27.5 million kind of net incremental shares for the year.

    好的。那太棒了。然後又進行了一次家事。顯然,指導原則是繼續逐步降低槓桿率。預計 2026 年平均股數約為 5.03 億股,這是否意味著年底的淨增量股數約為 2,750 萬股?

  • Is that in the ballpark? Or where will we end the year, I guess, if you're providing that?

    這個數字差不多嗎?或者,如果你要提供這個,那我們今年的結尾會是什麼樣子呢?

  • Robert Probst - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Robert Probst - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • We haven't given a year ending. Maybe we'll do that later in the year. It depends a lot on timing. But what we have assumed is the $2.5 billion of investments are principally funded with equity, $1.2 billion of which is already in the bank. So when you look at the year-over-year increase in shares, it is that. It is a function of the investments equity funded. So 503 is the number for the year.

    我們沒有給出具體的年份。或許我們會在今年晚些時候做這件事。這很大程度上取決於時機。但我們假設這 25 億美元的投資主要由股權融資,其中 12 億美元已經存入銀行。所以,當你查看股票的年增幅時,情況就是這樣。這取決於股權投資的規模。所以,503是這一年的數字。

  • James Kammert - Equity Analyst

    James Kammert - Equity Analyst

  • Fair enough. And so you're not going to try to get like above that, in other words, about 2.5. I got you're saying.

    很公平。所以你不會試圖達到高於這個數值,換句話說,大約 2.5。我明白你的意思了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Seth Bergey, Citigroup.

    Seth Bergey,花旗集團。

  • Seth Bergey - Analyst

    Seth Bergey - Analyst

  • It's Nick Joseph here with Seth. So just on the acquisition guidance of $2.5 billion. Obviously, you're off to a good start. I think you're almost one-third or probably over one-third of the way there already. I think you mentioned high confidence in being able to hit that, but also that competition has increased.

    我是尼克‧約瑟夫,我是塞思。所以僅就25億美元的收購指引而言。顯然,你已經有了一個好的開始。我認為你已經完成了近三分之一,甚至可能超過三分之一了。我認為你提到你對實現目標充滿信心,但也提到競爭加劇了。

  • So just hoping you could kind of talk about what you're seeing in the market today? Is it more portfolios? And what would drive you below that $2.5 billion, just given the pace you're already on?

    所以,您能否談談您目前在市場上觀察到的情況?是更多投資組合嗎?鑑於你們目前的成長速度,是什麼原因導致你們的營收低於 25 億美元?

  • J. Justin Hutchens - Executive Vice President - Senior Housing, Chief Investment Officer

    J. Justin Hutchens - Executive Vice President - Senior Housing, Chief Investment Officer

  • It's Justin. Well, first of all, our pipeline is very active and has been -- we described the investment activity we've had is having momentum. And we've really been pressing our advantages to execute on our pipeline and the opportunities that are a good fit for us. When it comes to the type of deals we do, we do a number of off-market deals. For instance, the $800 million that we've closed already half of that was off market.

    是賈斯汀。首先,我們的專案儲備非常活躍,而且——正如我們之前所說,我們的投資活動正處於上升期。我們一直在充分發揮自身優勢,推進專案進展,抓住適合我們的機會。就我們進行的交易類型而言,我們做了很多場外交易。例如,我們已經完成的 8 億美元交易中,有一半是場外交易。

  • When it comes to marketed deals, there is increased competition. And what we're finding is where we have our advantage is, first of all, the track record of closing, which has caused repeat sellers to… opportunities with us. Our operator relationships that have become really deep and strong and expanding those relationships and adding more operator relationships to the platform. There's plenty of activity as well overall in the US, and we're getting more than our fair share of that and like our opportunity to continue to do that.

    在市場推廣交易方面,競爭日益激烈。我們發現,我們的優勢首先在於成交記錄,這使得回頭客賣家…有機會與我們合作。我們與營運商的關係已經非常深入且牢固,我們正在拓展這些關係,並將更多運營商關係添加到平台中。美國整體上也有很多活動,我們獲得了遠超過我們應得的份額,並且喜歡繼續獲得這樣的機會。

  • Seth Bergey - Analyst

    Seth Bergey - Analyst

  • And then just, I guess, unrelated, obviously, it's been a more disruptive flu season nationally, but it seems like occupancy is holding up well. What are you hearing from, I guess, your facilities or your operators on the flu season? And I guess, how have mitigation efforts changed post COVID?

    另外,雖然這與流感無關,但顯然,今年的流感季在全國造成了更大的破壞,不過入住率似乎保持良好。我想問您,您的工廠或操作人員對流感季的情況有什麼了解?那麼,新冠疫情後,緩解措施又發生了哪些變化呢?

  • J. Justin Hutchens - Executive Vice President - Senior Housing, Chief Investment Officer

    J. Justin Hutchens - Executive Vice President - Senior Housing, Chief Investment Officer

  • Yes. And that's a really good question. There has been national headlines around a flu season that was elevated at a point in time. We're not all the way through the winter season, so we'll see how that plays out. In terms of our portfolio, there are a number of things that have changed that since the pandemic era that have improved infection control.

    是的。這確實是個好問題。流感季一度加劇,成為全國關注的焦點。冬季還沒完全結束,所以我們拭目以待。就我們的投資組合而言,自疫情時代以來,許多方面都發生了變化,從而改善了感染控制。

  • One is simply that we're using more protective equipment such as masks, there's -- we're isolating. The general public is better at just staying away if they have infection, washing their hands. There's a -- so therefore, I'd say it awareness around any kind of infection in our communities and the management of that is much better than it was at one point in time. Having said that, we're also experiencing minimal flu impacts. It's been very mild and very few reports of any kind of outbreak whatsoever at this stage.

    一方面,我們正在使用更多的防護設備,例如口罩;另一方面,我們正在進行隔離。一般民眾如果感染了病毒,最好還是待在家中,並勤洗手。因此,我認為,我們社區對各種感染的認識以及應對措施都比以前好得多。儘管如此,我們受到的流感影響也微乎其微。目前疫情非常輕微,幾乎沒有任何疫情爆發的報告。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Vikram Malhotra, Mizuho.

    Vikram Malhotra,瑞穗銀行。

  • Vikram Malhotra - Analyst

    Vikram Malhotra - Analyst

  • So just maybe on occupancy in the SHOP portfolio, you talked about sort of the weather impacting expense a little bit. Just -- can you walk us through a couple of things like how are you baking seasonality into the first and the fourth quarter? And does weather impact either occupancy or flu impacts, et cetera, what are you baking in as you go through the pay occupancy guide?

    所以,關於 SHOP 投資組合的入住率,您提到了天氣對費用的一些影響。能否請您詳細介紹一下,例如您是如何將季節性因素融入第一季和第四季的?天氣是否會影響入住率,流感等因素是否會影響入住率,您在製定入住率指南時都考慮到了哪些因素?

  • J. Justin Hutchens - Executive Vice President - Senior Housing, Chief Investment Officer

    J. Justin Hutchens - Executive Vice President - Senior Housing, Chief Investment Officer

  • Yes. So in the 270, we've assumed seasonality and that would include just normal seasonal impacts and that could be weather, it could be flu related. That's in the guidance. And I think you know how the seasonality works. Obviously, we'll have more -- usually more move-out activity, a little less move-in activity in the winter season, and that's the end of the year and the beginning of the year.

    是的。所以在 270 中,我們假設了季節性,這包括正常的季節性影響,例如天氣,也可能與流感有關。指南裡有寫。我想你應該知道季節性是如何運作的。顯然,冬季會有更多——通常是更多的搬出活動,更少的搬入活動,而冬季又是年底和年初。

  • And then the key selling season May to September, is where we have outsized move-in activity and generally lower move-out activity. So that's the big opportunity every year. And we look forward to performing well within that and delivering the 270. That's the assumption. The comment I made on the call was really referring to expenses. There is obviously some recent severe weather, and we've incorporated expenses related to that in the first quarter, which is also obviously baked into the full year guidance.

    然後,從五月到九月是關鍵的銷售旺季,這段時間入住量龐大,而搬離量則普遍較低。所以這是每年最大的機會。我們期待在這個範圍內取得好成績,並交付 270 台產品。這是假設。我在電話裡說的其實是指費用問題。最近確實出現了一些惡劣天氣,我們已將與此相關的費用計入第一季度,這顯然也已納入全年業績預期。

  • Vikram Malhotra - Analyst

    Vikram Malhotra - Analyst

  • Okay. Great. And then just -- obviously, the acquisition pipeline is very strong. I wonder talk about dispositions potentially in senior housing, whether it's into your fund or elsewhere, like Canada, for example, now 97% occupancy. In the US, you have another bucket that's sort of underperforming, I guess, their Tier 3 markets. But maybe you can expand upon the future growth opportunities in both those buckets and whether anything there could be disposition candidates?

    好的。偉大的。而且很明顯,收購通路非常強大。我想談談老年住房的潛在處置方案,無論是投入您的基金還是其他地方,例如加拿大,目前入住率高達 97%。在美國,還有另一類市場表現欠佳,我猜是他們的三線市場。但或許您可以詳細說明這兩個領域未來的成長機會,以及是否存在可以進行資產處置的標的物?

  • J. Justin Hutchens - Executive Vice President - Senior Housing, Chief Investment Officer

    J. Justin Hutchens - Executive Vice President - Senior Housing, Chief Investment Officer

  • Yes. So there's a lot in there. I'll mention -- so first of all, we're always going to have some amount of pruning that we'll do within the portfolio, and there's a few hundred million that's assumed -- that would include some senior housing underperforming. We still have -- there's always a bottom part of the portfolio that doesn't have the long-term potential that we like to see it have. So that creates disposition opportunities.

    是的。所以裡面內容很多。首先我要提一下——我們總是會對投資組合進行一定程度的精簡,預計會有幾億美元被削減——其中包括一些表現不佳的老年住房項目。我們仍然會發現——投資組合中總有一部分資產不具備我們希望看到的長期潛力。這樣就創造了資產處置機會。

  • In terms of Canada, one thing that's interesting about that, it's a very high-quality, high-performing portfolio. It doesn't grow as much as the US. It's also much smaller. It was 30% of our SHOP portfolio just a few years ago. It's down to around 16% today, and that's because the US is growing in every way, organically and externally. And so Canada has become in a smaller footprint. You mentioned the other markets and what -- if you look at page 11 of the (inaudible), people have fallen along. In the other markets, we have more of a mid-market product. And that is mostly independent living.

    就加拿大而言,有趣的是,這是一個品質非常高、表現非常出色的投資組合。它的成長速度不如美國。它也小得多。幾年前,它還占我們 SHOP 產品組合的 30%。如今這一比例已降至 16% 左右,這是因為美國在各方面都在成長,包括內部成長和外部成長。因此,加拿大的國土面積縮小了。你提到了其他市場,還有──如果你看看第 11 頁(聽不清楚),人們已經跌落谷底。在其他市場,我們的產品更偏向中端市場。而且這基本上屬於獨立生活。

  • We also have assisted living, and a lot of those communities have benefited from our plans in terms of refresh, putting new operators in place, and offer a growth opportunity. They're in good markets with strong net absorption and a lot of the actions that we've directed towards the portfolio benefited that category, and it has relatively low occupancy. So we'll look forward to growth opportunity there.

    我們還有輔助生活設施,許多這類社區都受益於我們的翻新計劃,引進了新的營運商,並提供了發展機會。這些物業位於市場良好的區域,淨吸收量強勁,我們針對該物業組合採取的許多措施都使該類別受益,而且該類別的入住率相對較低。所以我們將期待在那裡獲得發展機會。

  • Vikram Malhotra - Analyst

    Vikram Malhotra - Analyst

  • Congrats on the strong results.

    恭喜你們取得優異成績。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Julien Blouin, Goldman Sachs.

    Julien Blouin,高盛集團。

  • Julien Blouin - Analyst

    Julien Blouin - Analyst

  • Maybe Justin on the Brookdale transitions. Can you give us a look under the hood sort of what are the lowest sort of easiest hanging fruit that can help drive that immediate growth and improvement in 2026 you mentioned? And then maybe tying that to Ventas OI, how does that platform help your operators improve the performance of the newly transitioned assets?

    或許賈斯汀在布魯克代爾的過渡期。您能否為我們詳細解讀一下,您提到的那些能夠幫助推動2026年立即實現增長和進步的、最容易實現的、最容易摘取的果實是什麼?然後,或許可以將其與 Ventas OI 聯繫起來,該平台如何幫助您的營運商提高新轉移資產的效能?

  • J. Justin Hutchens - Executive Vice President - Senior Housing, Chief Investment Officer

    J. Justin Hutchens - Executive Vice President - Senior Housing, Chief Investment Officer

  • Yes, great question. We had a number of triple net to SHOP conversions last year. The biggest part of that was the former Brookdale communities that were in the lease that moved to SHOP. Those communities are -- have a lot of advantages. They're large scale. They're in markets that have strong net absorption. We have five new operators in place. All of those operators have experience transitioning. We have CapEx planned. Majority of them will have had their refreshes done by the key selling season.

    是的,問得好。去年我們有不少三合一淨租房子改成了商店。其中最大的一部分是租賃合約中的原 Brookdale 社區搬遷到了 SHOP。這些社區有很多優勢。它們規模很大。它們所在的市場淨吸收量很大。我們新增了五名操作員。這些業者都有轉型經驗。我們已經制定了資本支出計劃。大多數產品都會在銷售旺季前完成更新換代。

  • I'd say that's one of the biggest actions we're taking early. And then we expect the performance to be good over time. It's not really a 2026 story per se, it be some modest growth there. But '27 and beyond where we really expect to see ramped up performance and go after that doubling of the NOI that we've talked about.

    我認為這是我們早期採取的最重要行動之一。我們預計隨著時間的推移,其表現會很好。這其實不是一個2026年的故事,屆時只會有一些溫和的成長。但從 2027 年及以後,我們真正期待看到業績大幅提升,並實現我們之前討論過的淨營業收入翻倍的目標。

  • Julien Blouin - Analyst

    Julien Blouin - Analyst

  • Got it. That's really helpful. And then I think in that, you've talked about how the time to turn a unit is very short, given the limited wear and tear in senior housing and in your portfolio. But I was wondering if you had any thoughts about the time it takes to secure a new resident to replace now going on and sort of how that might have changed in the last 12 to 24 months? And sort of how waitlist length sort of play into that? Have they sort of grown over the last 12 to 24 months as supply is subsided?

    知道了。這真的很有幫助。然後,我認為您在其中也談到了,考慮到老年住房和您的投資組合中房屋的磨損有限,房屋週轉時間非常短。但我很想知道,您對目前找到新住戶來替換現有住戶所需的時間有什麼看法,以及在過去的 12 到 24 個月裡,這種情況可能發生了哪些變化?那麼,候補名單的長度又會如何影響這一切呢?在過去 12 到 24 個月裡,隨著供應減少,它們的數量是否有所增加?

  • J. Justin Hutchens - Executive Vice President - Senior Housing, Chief Investment Officer

    J. Justin Hutchens - Executive Vice President - Senior Housing, Chief Investment Officer

  • It's what grown? I didn't hear that last part.

    這是什麼東西長出來了?最後那句話我沒聽到。

  • Julien Blouin - Analyst

    Julien Blouin - Analyst

  • The length of waitlist.

    候補名單的長度。

  • J. Justin Hutchens - Executive Vice President - Senior Housing, Chief Investment Officer

    J. Justin Hutchens - Executive Vice President - Senior Housing, Chief Investment Officer

  • Yes. So the sales cycle tends to be really short in assisted living. We could -- sometimes, we're inside of 60 days of getting a lead, you would expect them to make a choice, whether it's with us or with another option that they're pursuing. Some move much faster than that. Way inside of 30 days, sometimes even just a matter of days in terms of the sales cycle.

    是的。因此,養老行業的銷售週期往往非常短。有時,在獲得潛在客戶後的 60 天內,我們會期望他們做出選擇,無論是選擇我們還是選擇他們正在考慮的其他方案。有些移動速度比這快得多。銷售週期通常不到 30 天,有時甚至只需幾天。

  • Independent living could be much longer. It's more of a discretionary choice. And we are seeing really the big demand driver isn't as much about the sales cycle as it is just the increasing senior population that's accessing our services. And then our sales execution has obviously been excellent because we've been able to outperform our markets for many, many orders and years in a row now.

    獨立生活的時間可能會更長。這更多的是一種個人選擇。我們發現,真正的主要需求驅動因素與其說是銷售週期,不如說是越來越多的老年人口在使用我們的服務。而且,我們的銷售執行力顯然非常出色,因為我們已經連續多年在許多訂單中都超越了市場平均水準。

  • And why is that? Well, it's because of the investment in our portfolio, the operators we selected, the OI platform that we've layered on to ensure that we have good performance and we really like our opportunity probably very obviously moving into this next phase where we have even better demand. We're just really well positioned to continue to drive occupancy.

    為什麼會這樣呢?這要歸功於我們對投資組合的投資、我們選擇的營運商,以及我們建立的 OI 平台,以確保我們擁有良好的業績,我們非常看好我們的機會,很顯然,我們將進入下一個階段,屆時需求會更好。我們擁有非常有利的地位,可以繼續提高入住率。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (inaudible), Deutsche Bank.

    (聽不清楚)德意志銀行。

  • Unidentified Participant

    Unidentified Participant

  • This is Sam on for (inaudible). A lot of my questions have been asked already, so I guess I'll throw this one out there. Do you guys have any -- I guess, can we -- how do you guys -- how should we think about the cadence of deals for the remainder of the year?

    這是 Sam 為您報道(聽不清楚)我的很多問題都已經被問過了,所以我想我還是把這個問題也拋出來吧。你們有什麼建議嗎?我想,我們能不能──你們覺得──我們該如何考慮今年剩餘時間的交易節奏?

  • Robert Probst - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Robert Probst - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • From a modeling perspective, this is Bob. I would assume over the course of the year, sort of ratably would be a good modeling assumption.

    從建模的角度來看,這就是鮑伯。我認為,在一年的時間裡,以相對比例計算應該是一個合理的建模假設。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Michael Goldsmith, UBS.

    瑞銀集團的麥可‧戈德史密斯。

  • Michael Goldsmith - Analyst

    Michael Goldsmith - Analyst

  • On the assets that you're acquiring, I assume they're coming in at the kind of like low 90% occupancy. How much more occupancy upside is possible there? I know you mentioned you have SHOP properties that are 100% occupied. In your underwriting or use, what are you assuming on the occupancy upside?

    我估計你收購的資產入住率大概是 90% 左右。那裡的入住率還有多少提升空間?我知道您提到您的商店出租率達到了100%。在您的承保或使用中,您對入住率上升方面做了哪些假設?

  • J. Justin Hutchens - Executive Vice President - Senior Housing, Chief Investment Officer

    J. Justin Hutchens - Executive Vice President - Senior Housing, Chief Investment Officer

  • Yes. So we -- first of all, we do have a number of different types of kind of senior housing profiles in our pipeline. And that includes some value-add opportunities, really high-quality opportunities that actually have a lower occupancy that we've managed to source. So we'll expect even more occupancy runway if and when we close those investment opportunities in our pipeline.

    是的。所以,首先,我們確實有很多不同類型的養老住房項目正在籌備中。這其中也包括一些增值機會,一些入住率較低但品質很高的機會,我們已經設法找到了這些機會。因此,如果我們能夠完成那些正在規劃中的投資項目,我們預計入住率將會有更大的提升空間。

  • We've had… our favorite has been the kind of the high-performing stabilized. And if you're 90%, you have 10% to go. And when you have markets that are projected to go all the way to 100% occupancy over the next few years, that's a very reasonable expectation. So we're going to focus on -- we have a lot of occupancy upside. We're 86% occupied in the US that's been designed largely by moving our triple-net communities over to SHOP, and then we've been buying these high-quality newer communities as well. So we really like the portfolio positioning and the opportunity to grow occupancy.

    我們一直都很喜歡…我們最喜歡的是那種高性能的穩定型產品。如果你已經完成了90%,那就剩下10%要完成。當市場預計在未來幾年內入住率將達到 100% 時,這是一個非常合理的預期。所以我們將重點放在——我們的入住率還有很大的提升空間。我們在美國的計畫入住率已達 86%,這主要是透過將我們的三淨租賃社群轉移到 SHOP 平台實現的,此外,我們還一直在購買這些高品質的新社群。因此,我們非常看好目前的投資組合定位以及提升入住率的機會。

  • Michael Goldsmith - Analyst

    Michael Goldsmith - Analyst

  • Got it. And we kind of touched on this a little bit, but just maybe ask more discretely. You talked a little bit about competition, the portfolio -- some of the blended cap rates of your acquisitions to start the year were sub-7%. So -- and I know historically, it's kind of been in that 7% to 8%. So like should we expect kind of being -- remaining of the year in that like sub-7% range and that's shifting down, say, 50 basis points, like 6.5% to 7.5% versus 7% to 8%, maybe historically. Just trying to get a sense of where the market has moved.

    知道了。我們之前稍微提到過這一點,但或許可以更委婉地問一下。您談到了一些競爭、投資組合——年初收購的一些項目的綜合資本化率低於 7%。所以——而且我知道從歷史上看,這個比例一直徘徊在 7% 到 8% 之間。所以,我們是否應該預期今年剩餘時間利率會維持在 7% 以下的區間,例如下降 50 個基點,從歷史上的 7% 到 8% 降至 6.5% 到 7.5%?只是想了解市場走向。

  • J. Justin Hutchens - Executive Vice President - Senior Housing, Chief Investment Officer

    J. Justin Hutchens - Executive Vice President - Senior Housing, Chief Investment Officer

  • Well, it's not surprising given the quality of this asset class that there's a lot of interest in it. So there certainly is more competition. Clearly, it hasn't slowed us down at all given how strong we're positioned. There's a drifting down in cap rates. You can see it in our sup. We reported under 7. And I would say, we'll report our expectations as we close deals moving forward.

    鑑於這類資產的質量,人們對它非常感興趣也就不足為奇了。所以競爭確實更加激烈了。顯然,鑑於我們目前強大的實力,這絲毫沒有減緩我們的步伐。資本化率正在逐漸下降。你可以在我們的版本中看到它。我們報告低於 7。我想說的是,我們會隨著交易的完成情況,陸續公佈我們的預期。

  • Debra Cafaro - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Debra Cafaro - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • And as Justin said, we remain -- we are highly competitively advantaged in making acquisitions in senior housing.

    正如賈斯汀所說,我們在老年房屋收購方面仍然具有很強的競爭優勢。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Michael Carroll, RBC Capital Markets.

    Michael Carroll,加拿大皇家銀行資本市場。

  • Michael Carroll - Analyst

    Michael Carroll - Analyst

  • Just wanted to build off of the seniors housing valuation question. I mean, obviously, private market valuations have improved. How difficult is it to buy assets under or at replacement cost today? I mean is there an idea of like how big at the discount it is today versus it was maybe one to two years ago?

    我只是想就老年人住房估值問題展開討論。我的意思是,很顯然,私人市場的估值已經有所改善。如今,以低於或等於重置成本的價格購買資產有多難?我的意思是,有沒有人知道現在的折扣力度和一兩年前的折扣力度相比有多大?

  • J. Justin Hutchens - Executive Vice President - Senior Housing, Chief Investment Officer

    J. Justin Hutchens - Executive Vice President - Senior Housing, Chief Investment Officer

  • It depends on what you're buying. So we've had -- we've been buying consistently under replacement costs. There's been some that have been a little closer to replacement costs, and it's really just a function of the age of the property usually. So we've had some really nice high-quality, newer communities that you're buying closer replacement costs. We have others that are way below still.

    這取決於你買的是什麼。所以我們一直以來都是以低於重置成本的價格來採購。有些房產的估價更接近重置成本,這通常取決於房產的房齡。所以我們現在有一些非常好的、高品質的、較新的社區,購買這些社區的成本更接近重建成本。我們還有一些遠低於這個水平的。

  • So we're looking to try to stay at or below in terms of our investment criteria, and we've been able to do that really consistently.

    因此,我們希望在投資標準方面保持在或低於目標水平,而且我們一直都能做到這一點。

  • Debra Cafaro - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Debra Cafaro - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • And we still have -- rents would still have to grow significantly to justify new construction.

    而且我們仍然需要——租金仍然需要大幅上漲才能證明新建案的合理性。

  • Michael Carroll - Analyst

    Michael Carroll - Analyst

  • Okay. Great. And then just on the pipeline that you have today, I mean, I know that you have a $2.5 billion target for the year. You already completed about $840 million. I also know how conservative Ventas is with putting investments within their guidance ranges.

    好的。偉大的。就目前你們的研發項目而言,我知道你們今年的目標是25億美元。你們已經完成了大約8.4億美元。我也知道 Ventas 在投資方面非常保守,並且始終將投資範圍控制在指導範圍內。

  • So of the $1.7 billion unidentified deals, I mean, should we assume that there's a pretty good horizon or line of sight on completing those specific deals?

    那麼,對於這 17 億美元的未公開交易,我們是否可以認為這些具體交易的完成前景相當樂觀?

  • J. Justin Hutchens - Executive Vice President - Senior Housing, Chief Investment Officer

    J. Justin Hutchens - Executive Vice President - Senior Housing, Chief Investment Officer

  • So we're describing it as high confidence. So you can interpret that. Yes. And the pipeline keeps growing as well.

    因此,我們將其描述為高度可信。所以你可以這樣理解。是的。而且,這條管道還在不斷成長。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • John Kilichowski, Wells Fargo.

    約翰‧基利霍夫斯基,富國銀行。

  • John Kilichowski - Equity Analyst

    John Kilichowski - Equity Analyst

  • My first question is around the balance sheet and G&A really. When I look at what you gave in terms of same-store and the acquisition number, they are both great numbers and maybe the FFO was slightly below where we would have expected. And I think part of that was some higher interest expense and maybe some G&A that we're not thinking about. Could you walk us through the building blocks there and the assumptions, maybe there's some conservatism because you've already pre-funded, I believe, $500 million, but maybe there's more there that we're not considering?

    我的第一個問題主要圍繞在資產負債表和一般及行政費用。從您提供的同店銷售額和收購額來看,這兩個數字都非常出色,或許 FFO 略低於我們的預期。我認為部分原因是利息支出增加,可能還有一些我們沒有考慮到的行政管理費用。您能否為我們介紹其中的基本組成部分和假設?也許其中存在一些保守因素,因為我相信您已經預先投入了 5 億美元,但也許還有我們沒有考慮到的更多因素?

  • Robert Probst - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Robert Probst - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Sure. Let me unpack a little bit. So there are two key drivers as you look at the year-over-year growth of 8% outside of the tremendous growth in SHOP and external growth. And that is, first and foremost, the expiration of the noncash Brookdale amortization, we disclosed that at nauseam. That's $0.04 year over year.

    當然。讓我稍微解釋一下。因此,除了 SHOP 和外部成長的巨大成長之外,還有兩個關鍵因素促成了 8% 的年成長。首先也是最重要的,是布魯克代爾非現金攤銷到期,我們已經反覆披露了這一點。與上年同期相比,成長了0.04美元。

  • And so that's one item to note. The second is refinancing maturing debt. We do have $2.2 billion of debt to mature this year. That's higher than the last couple of years. And obviously, there's a refinancing increase relative to debt on the books. Those two alone explain the difference between 8% to 10%.

    所以,這是需要注意的一點。第二點是為到期債務再融資。我們今年有22億美元的債務到期。這比前兩年都要高。顯然,相對於帳面上的債務而言,再融資有所增加。光是這兩點就能解釋 8% 到 10% 之間的差異。

  • As I mentioned in my prepared remarks, G&A, we are investing in the enterprise as you would expect us to do. We're growing scale in senior housing. We're investing behind the platform. Meanwhile, we are very, very focused on efficiency and effectiveness at the same time. But I believe that we've got the right balance there. But we do have growth in our G&A in the guide as well.

    正如我在準備好的演講稿中提到的,G&A,我們正在對企業進行投資,正如你們所期望的那樣。我們在老年住房領域不斷擴大規模。我們正在對該平台進行投資。同時,我們非常非常注重效率和效益。但我相信我們已經找到了合適的平衡點。但我們的指引也顯示,一般及行政費用有所增加。

  • John Kilichowski - Equity Analyst

    John Kilichowski - Equity Analyst

  • Got it. That's very helpful. And then my next one is on the 15% same-store guide. What does this imply in terms of US growth? And then just overall, how much of this is just you capturing the opportunity in front of you? And how much can you attribute this to like what you talked about in your opening remarks with Ventas OI.

    知道了。那很有幫助。接下來我要講的是同店銷售15%的指南。這對美國經濟成長意味著什麼?總的來說,你究竟有多少是把握住了眼前的機會?您認為這在多大程度上可以歸因於您在開場白中與 Ventas OI 所談到的內容?

  • J. Justin Hutchens - Executive Vice President - Senior Housing, Chief Investment Officer

    J. Justin Hutchens - Executive Vice President - Senior Housing, Chief Investment Officer

  • So we're not really giving US and Canada separate, but clearly, US was 18% in '25. It gives you a feel for the outsized growth potential that we have in the US. We really -- like I said before, we like how the portfolio is positioned. It's well invested. We have the right operators in place. We continually take actions. You mentioned Ventas OI. I'll just give you a flavor for some things we did in '25 as a proxy for the types of actions we've taken.

    所以我們並沒有真正把美國和加拿大分開計算,但很明顯,美國在 2025 年的比例是 18%。它讓你感受到美國蘊藏的巨大成長潛力。就像我之前說的,我們真的很喜歡目前的投資組合配置。這是一筆很划算的投資。我們已經配備了合適的操作人員。我們持續採取行動。您提到了Ventas OI。我舉個例子,說說我們在 2025 年做的一些事情,以此代表我們採取的行動類型。

  • So we added 12 operators last year. And so our platform is designed to onboard operators, bring them into the OI platform, help them to really be able to focus on the day-to-day execution. We had 88 redevs to help to improve our competitive positioning. We had 26 communities that transitioned to new SHOP operators and then we converted 74 from triple net to shop to position ourselves with that lower occupied opportunity and a long runway of growth. And so we're always taking portfolio actions, but on top of that, we're also taking operational type actions.

    所以我們去年增加了12位營運商。因此,我們的平台旨在幫助營運商加入,將他們引入 OI 平台,幫助他們真正專注於日常執行。我們進行了 88 次重新開發,以幫助我們提升競爭地位。我們有 26 個社區過渡到新的 SHOP 營運商,然後我們將 74 個從三淨租賃轉為 SHOP,以便利用入住率較低的機會和長期的成長空間。因此,我們一直在採取投資組合方面的行動,但除此之外,我們還會採取營運方面的行動。

  • And this is where I think the power of the platform really comes into play. And our operators have the responsibility for running the day-to-day business. We have this powerful platform to help really highlight for them opportunities to improve. And that could be anywhere from sales, pricing, and other operational benchmark improvement opportunities. So we'll continue to kind of press that advantage and execute in '26.

    我認為這正是該平台真正發揮作用的地方。我們的營運人員負責日常業務的營運。我們擁有這個強大的平台,可以真正幫助他們發現改進的機會。這可能包括銷售、定價以及其他營運基準改進機會等方面。所以我們會繼續利用這個優勢,並在 2026 年取得成功。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Rich Anderson, Cantor Fitzgerald.

    Rich Anderson,Cantor Fitzgerald。

  • Richard Anderson - Analyst

    Richard Anderson - Analyst

  • So allow me to be a pain in the you know what with my two questions. First, on supply. I guess, Debbie, you said rents need to grow significantly to justify new construction. Well, they are growing significantly, as you guys have pointed out. And I'm wondering how supply doesn't become a relatively near-term concern just around the narrative.

    所以,請容許我再問兩個問題,免得打擾到你們。首先,關於供應。黛比,我想,你說過租金需要大幅上漲才能證明新建房屋的合理性。正如你們所指出的,它們確實在顯著增長。我很好奇,為什麼圍繞著這個敘事,供應問題不會成為近期內需要關注的問題。

  • I mean we've seen it happen in industrial and data centers and multifamily when that was growing at 20%. So to what degree are you sort of preparing for that and because the senior housing was oversupplied before the pandemic as some of us remember. So I'm just curious, I know it's great now, but what's the strategy over the next five years to keep sort of that reality in the line of sight.

    我的意思是,我們已經看到工業、資料中心和多戶住宅在以 20% 的速度成長時出現這種情況。那麼,你們在多大程度上為此做好了準備?因為我們中的一些人還記得,在疫情爆發之前,老年住房供應過剩。所以我很好奇,我知道現在一切都很好,但未來五年要採取什麼策略來維持這種勢頭呢?

  • Debra Cafaro - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Debra Cafaro - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. Thanks, Rich. The multiyear NOI growth opportunity has a really long runway, and it's principally driven by demand because of the absolute explosion of the over 80 population, which is our customer base. And as I mentioned, the starts are literally in the 2000 a quarter level right now. There's over 2 million people turning over 80 in 2026, and that continues to grow as far as the eye can see.

    是的。謝謝你,里奇。多年的淨營業收入成長機會非常長,這主要是由 80 歲以上人口(我們的客戶群)的絕對爆炸性增長所驅動的需求。正如我之前提到的,目前的先發陣容已經達到了每季 2000 場左右。到 2026 年,將有超過 200 萬人年滿 80 歲,而且這個數字還在持續成長,看不到盡頭。

  • And we know that there -- the cost to develop are high labor materials, et cetera. We know there's about a 3-year cycle. And what we project is that even if new development starts that there is a surge, a step function in demand as you look forward in three, four, five years. And so the demand overwhelms or should overwhelm any incremental new supply. So that's how we're looking at it.

    我們知道,那裡的開發成本很高,包括高昂的勞力、材料等等。我們知道大約有一個三年的周期。我們預測,即使新的開發案啟動,未來三、四、五年內,需求也會激增,呈現階躍式成長。因此,需求會壓倒(或應該壓倒)任何新增供應。這就是我們看待這個問題的方式。

  • And you've referred to earlier periods, the senior population growth was very flat to low single digits. We expect it to be 28% over the coming five years. So we think the best is yet to come.

    您也提到過之前的時期,老年人口成長非常平穩,僅為個位數。我們預計未來五年內這一比例將達到 28%。所以我們認為最好的還在後頭。

  • Richard Anderson - Analyst

    Richard Anderson - Analyst

  • Okay. That's perfectly good color. Second question is on the affordability comment. I think somebody said, maybe it was Justin, they can afford to stay 7 times longer than the average length of stay, which is an interesting stat. But in my mind, it's affordable to people who can afford it, if that it sounds silly to say.

    好的。這個顏色很好。第二個問題是關於價格負擔能力方面的。我想有人說過,也許是賈斯汀說的,他們可以負擔得起比平均停留時間長 7 倍的停留時間,這是一個有趣的統計數據。但在我看來,對於負擔得起的人來說,它是可以接受的,如果這麼說聽起來很愚蠢的話。

  • But I would argue the vast majority of seniors cannot afford this product. I don't know what the penetration rates or how you calculate that, but it's got to be at the very low end of the scale. So I'm just curious if you've given any thought to a more affordable product to sort of capture a broader range of seniors as we go through this that can afford it. I know that's being done in some other companies are doing that. I'm just wondering if you're sort of modifying your strategy to some degree to get at what is the majority of the senior population in my opinion, that can’t afford this product.

    但我認為絕大多數老年人買不起這款產品。我不知道滲透率是多少,也不知道你是怎麼計算的,但肯定非常低。所以我很好奇,你們有沒有考慮過推出更經濟實惠的產品,以便在我們經歷這段時期時,能夠吸引更多負擔得起的年長者。我知道其他一些公司也在這樣做。我只是想知道,你們是否在某種程度上調整了策略,以吸引我認為佔老年人口大多數、買不起這款產品的群體。

  • Debra Cafaro - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Debra Cafaro - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Rich, Debbie here. So yes, Justin did quote, and I talked about the fact that our industry provides a very important valuable benefit to seniors and their families and our communities at an affordable cost. And we have a page in the deck that's actually very illuminating on this, page 16. And I also mentioned that baby boomers who are starting to turn 80 are the wealthiest generation ever and they control about half the country's wealth. And what's really important is, as Justin said, our residents can afford senior housing almost 7 times what it actually costs for them to live there.

    Rich,我是Debbie。是的,賈斯汀確實引用了我的話,我談到了我們的行業以可負擔的價格為老年人及其家人和我們的社區提供了非常重要且有價值的好處。牌組中有一頁對此非常有啟發性,即第 16 頁。我還提到,即將年滿 80 歲的嬰兒潮世代是有史以來最富有的一代,他們掌控著全國大約一半的財富。正如賈斯汀所說,真正重要的是,我們的居民能夠負擔得起的養老住房價格幾乎是他們實際居住成本的 7 倍。

  • And more importantly, it's effectively a replacement expense for what seniors are paying to live in their homes alone and get any kind of modicum of in-home care, similar to what's provided in the senior living communities. And on top of that, the seniors aren't alone, they're getting the socialization and safety and support of a communal setting. So we really do believe that the product provides valuable benefits. Anyone who's ever used it in their families is understands that and that it truly is an affordable cost to this generation that will be the resident base and is starting to become the resident base starting in 2026.

    更重要的是,這實際上取代了老年人獨自在家生活並獲得任何形式的最低限度居家護理(類似於老年生活社區提供的護理)所支付的費用。除此之外,老人們並不孤單,他們還能在集體環境中獲得社交、安全感和支持。因此,我們真心相信該產品能帶來實際的好處。凡是在自己家庭中使用過它的人都會明白這一點,而且對於即將成為居民主體的這一代人來說,它的價格確實很實惠,而這一代人從 2026 年開始就將逐漸成為居民主體。

  • Richard Anderson - Analyst

    Richard Anderson - Analyst

  • Can I give you my mother's phone numbers so you can call her and tell that because --

    我可以把媽媽的電話號碼給你嗎?這樣你就可以打電話告訴她這件事了。--

  • Debra Cafaro - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Debra Cafaro - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • We do it all the time. We get calls all the time because it's a very needed benefit that we provide in our business.

    我們經常這樣做。我們經常接到諮詢電話,因為這是我們公司提供的一個非常必要的福利。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (inaudible), Bank of America.

    (聽不清楚)美國銀行。

  • Unidentified Participant

    Unidentified Participant

  • This is (inaudible). My first question is around your pipeline. I know you've added some additional color and a lot of questions about it. But just when thinking about entering to '26, is there a quantifiable difference between what your pipeline is today versus what it was one year ago for '25?

    這是(聽不清楚)我的第一個問題是關於你們的流程。我知道你添加了一些額外的色彩,也提出了很多相關的問題。但展望 2026 年,您目前的業務管道與一年前 2025 年的業務管道相比,是否存在可量化的差異?

  • J. Justin Hutchens - Executive Vice President - Senior Housing, Chief Investment Officer

    J. Justin Hutchens - Executive Vice President - Senior Housing, Chief Investment Officer

  • We disclosed our pipeline in US senior housing, $35 billion. And that -- some of which we closed last year. some of which is still in the pipeline. So this year already and some of it is still in this high confidence group that we described earlier.

    我們揭露了我們在美國老年住房領域的投資項目,金額達 350 億美元。其中一些項目我們去年已經完成,另一些項目仍在進行中。所以今年已經有一些項目仍然屬於我們之前描述的高信心群體。

  • And I would describe the pipeline as is growing. It's certainly becoming larger. We're seeing more midsized deals. We continue to see flow business as well. So yes, there's more opportunities than we had a year ago.

    我會說這條管道正在不斷成長。它的確越來越大了。我們看到更多中等規模的交易。我們也持續看到流動業務的發展。是的,現在的機會比一年前多了許多。

  • Unidentified Participant

    Unidentified Participant

  • Okay. And then also when looking at your same-store SHOP occupancy, you've now reached around that 90% threshold. And your margins are around 28% or mid- I'm just curious about now that you're stepping into a higher RevPOR growth and also layering in Ventas OI, where do we potentially see this margin number move? Are you seeing additional revenue growth and margin expansion from the layering of the Ventas OI?

    好的。此外,從同店店入住率來看,您現在已經達到了 90% 左右的門檻。你們的利潤率在 28% 左右,或者說中等程度。我很好奇,既然你們現在正朝著更高的 RevPOR 成長邁進,也加入了 Ventas OI,我們可能會看到這個利潤率數字朝哪個方向發展?透過 Ventas OI 的分層,您是否看到了額外的收入成長和利潤率擴張?

  • J. Justin Hutchens - Executive Vice President - Senior Housing, Chief Investment Officer

    J. Justin Hutchens - Executive Vice President - Senior Housing, Chief Investment Officer

  • Yes. So just like really in a very focused way, I would say we have 50% incremental margin in the fourth quarter. We expect in our numbers, our guidance number '26 that that will be in the 50s. So more margin expansion opportunity in '26. I mentioned the rent increases in my prepared remarks were 8% this year. There were seven last year. So we're starting to see higher in-house rent. We do have underlying improving trends and moving rents as well. So there's good support for better pricing moving forward, which makes perfect sense given the supply-demand dynamic that Debbie described and then also just having more communities that are becoming higher occupied.

    是的。所以,客觀來說,我認為我們在第四季度實現了 50% 的利潤成長。我們預計,根據我們的預測數字“26”,這一數字將達到50多。因此,2026年將有更多利潤率擴張的機會。我在事先準備好的演講稿中提到,今年的租金上漲了 8%。去年有七個。所以我們開始看到房屋租金上漲。我們確實看到了一些潛在的改善趨勢,租金也在上漲。因此,未來價格上漲的趨勢得到了很好的支持,考慮到黛比所描述的供需動態,以及越來越多的社區入住率不斷提高,這完全合理。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Juan Sanabria, BMO Capital Markets.

    Juan Sanabria,BMO 資本市場。

  • Juan Sanabria - Analyst

    Juan Sanabria - Analyst

  • All right. Justin, you mentioned dynamic pricing in the context of Ventas OI. So just curious if you can give us a sense of where you are in the process and the ultimate goal on how you expect and hope to price these units over time.

    好的。Justin,你在談到 Ventas OI 時提到了動態定價。所以,我只是好奇您能否告訴我們您目前在這個過程中處於什麼階段,以及您最終希望如何為這些單元定價。

  • J. Justin Hutchens - Executive Vice President - Senior Housing, Chief Investment Officer

    J. Justin Hutchens - Executive Vice President - Senior Housing, Chief Investment Officer

  • Yes. I would -- I mean we've been working on dynamic -- everything Ventas OI-related, we've been working on really since 2022. And it's an evolving platform, the capabilities are improving every way. They're being more technically proficient and also, really importantly, way better at executing in the field. And I would say that's one of the areas that really helped in '25, and we look forward to really expanding and pressing upon in '26.

    是的。我的意思是,我們一直在研究動態的東西——所有與 Ventas OI 相關的東西,我們從 2022 年就開始研究了。而且這是一個不斷發展的平台,其各項功能都在不斷提升。他們的技術更加嫻熟,更重要的是,他們在實戰中的表現也好得多。我認為這是 2025 年真正有所幫助的領域之一,我們期待在 2026 年真正擴大規模並加強。

  • And in order to be able to deploy the Ventas OI, you have to have high adoption from our operators. And they are highly engaged with us. So I couldn't be more happy with their willingness to work with us and therefore, execute moving forward. So I would say we're -- I always say we're early stages because it's an evolution and the goal is to get even better at it, whether you're talking about dynamic pricing or just execution across the whole platform. And as Bob said, we're putting more resources behind it. And so we're going to continue to just get even better at it moving forward.

    為了能夠部署 Ventas OI,您必須獲得我們運營商的廣泛認可。他們與我們互動非常積極。因此,我對他們願意與我們合作並因此能夠繼續推進專案感到無比高興。所以我會說我們——我總是說我們還處於早期階段,因為這是一個發展過程,我們的目標是做得更好,無論是動態定價還是整個平台的執行。正如鮑伯所說,我們正在投入更多資源。因此,我們將繼續努力,爭取做得更好。

  • Juan Sanabria - Analyst

    Juan Sanabria - Analyst

  • And then just a quick follow-up to Farrell's question. On the flow-through margins kind of -- can you remind us how those should trend as you get higher and higher occupancy, I think 90% is like a critical number where you don't necessarily have to add really any incremental head count from a labor perspective. So if you could just remind us on how that may or should change as occupancy continues to grow at higher.

    然後,我想快速補充法雷爾的問題。關於利潤率—您能否提醒我們一下,隨著入住率越來越高,這些利潤率該如何變化?我認為 90% 是一個臨界數字,從勞動力角度來看,您不一定需要增加任何額外的人員數量。所以,如果您能提醒我們一下,隨著入住率持續增長,這種情況可能會或應該如何變化,那就太好了。

  • J. Justin Hutchens - Executive Vice President - Senior Housing, Chief Investment Officer

    J. Justin Hutchens - Executive Vice President - Senior Housing, Chief Investment Officer

  • It gets better the higher the occupancy goes because the operating leverage kicks in. Like I said in '26 as we kind of hover around this low 90s percent, we're expecting incremental margin in the 50s. And then we would expect that over time, as we move up the ladder towards 100% higher incremental margin, usually around 70% or so. the higher you get. So we'll have -- that's really one of the most powerful aspects of senior housing is a high operating leverage and we expect to benefit from that over the course of the next few years.

    入住率越高,情況就越好,因為營運槓桿效應會發揮作用。正如我在 2026 年所說,由於我們的利潤率徘徊在 90% 左右,我們預計利潤率將略微提高到 50% 左右。然後我們預計,隨著時間的推移,當我們向上攀升至更高的100%時,增量利潤通常會在70%左右。越高越好。因此,我們將擁有——這確實是老年住房最強大的方面之一——高營運槓桿,我們預計在未來幾年內將從中受益。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Michael Stroyeck, Green Street.

    邁克爾·斯特羅耶克,格林街。

  • Michael Stroyeck - Analyst

    Michael Stroyeck - Analyst

  • One question on the acceleration in RevPAR growth expected in '26. Is this a function of assets that were already seeing good growth, growing even quicker or more properties that were laggards starting to catch up? Any color on where that step up in growth is coming from would be helpful.

    關於 2026 年 RevPAR 成長加速的問題。這是由於原本成長良好的資產成長速度加快,還是因為成長落後的資產開始迎頭趕上?如果能說明這種成長階躍來自何處,那就很有幫助了。

  • J. Justin Hutchens - Executive Vice President - Senior Housing, Chief Investment Officer

    J. Justin Hutchens - Executive Vice President - Senior Housing, Chief Investment Officer

  • It's really -- yes, sure. And it's really just broad-based, and it's primarily driven -- one of the biggest drivers is obviously in-house rent increases and have that be around 8% versus around 7% a year ago is a big boost to RevPOR. And we always like to use (inaudible) oversimplified rule of thumb and that is that RevPOR two-thirds of the in-house rent increase amount. So that puts you just under 5%. But we're also seeing solid underlying trends in terms of move-in rents as well.

    確實——是的,當然。而且這確實是一個廣泛的現象,其主要驅動因素之一顯然是內部租金上漲,而一年前的租金漲幅約為 7%,現在約為 8%,這對 RevPOR 來說是一個巨大的推動。我們總是喜歡使用(聽不清楚)過度簡化的經驗法則,那就是 RevPOR 是內部租金成長額的三分之二。這樣算下來,你的佔比略低於5%。但我們也看到入住租金方面也出現了穩健的潛在趨勢。

  • So honestly, this is another category that just kind of seems like we're at the beginning here. And we're pleased with the results. But as we move ahead into this strong demand environment, we look forward to performing even better on that front.

    說實話,這又是一個感覺我們才剛起步的類別。我們對結果很滿意。但隨著我們繼續進入這種強勁的需求環境,我們期待在這方面取得更好的成績。

  • Michael Stroyeck - Analyst

    Michael Stroyeck - Analyst

  • Got it. That's helpful. And then maybe one on the outpatient research business. The (inaudible) '26 guidance assume any additional occupancy loss within the research portfolio? And do you expect that NOI has troughed in that business?

    知道了。那很有幫助。然後或許還可以寫一篇關於門診研究業務的文章。(聽不清楚)'26 年的指導意見是否假設研究組合中存在任何額外的入住率損失?你認為NOI在該業務領域已經跌至谷底了嗎?

  • Robert Probst - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Robert Probst - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes. This is Bob. I'll take it. So looking at '25 is a perfect analogy, I would say, as we think about '26. So in '25, overall, OMAR delivered same-store 2.5%.

    是的。這是鮑伯。我要買它。所以,我認為,當我們思考 2026 年時,回顧 2025 年是一個完美的類比。因此,2025 年,OMAR 的同店銷售額整體成長了 2.5%。

  • Within that, the MOBs were over 3%. Modest decline in research given the backdrop there. That's a pretty good example of what we think is going to happen to continue on in '26, very, very similar. We kept the midpoint the same. So led by outperformance in outpatient medical and hanging in there on the research business.

    其中,MOB 超過 3%。考慮到當時的社會背景,研究工作略有下降。這很好地說明了我們認為 2026 年將會發生的事情,非常非常相似。我們保持中點不變。因此,在門診醫療業務的優異表現和研發業務的堅持下,公司取得了領先地位。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Mike Mueller, JPMorgan.

    麥克·穆勒,摩根大通。

  • Michael Mueller - Analyst

    Michael Mueller - Analyst

  • Bob, can you give us some more color on the decision to exclude noncash stock comp going forward from FFO? And then what's embedded in the guide for G&A expense this year?

    鮑勃,你能否詳細解釋一下今後將非現金股票補償從FFO中剔除的決定?那麼,今年的管理費用指南中具體包含了哪些內容呢?

  • Robert Probst - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Robert Probst - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Sure. So first and foremost, just to be very crystal clear, it's $0.08 of noncash stock-based compensation expense in both '25 and '26. We want to make sure (inaudible) understands that. We've modeled that in terms of our growth rate on a like-for-like basis. Why are we doing that to your question?

    當然。首先,為了非常清楚說明,2025 年和 2026 年的非現金股票補償費用均為 0.08 美元。我們想確保(聽不清楚)明白這一點。我們已經根據同類比較的成長率建立了模型。我們為什麼要這樣回答你的問題?

  • We think that's getting to where the market is in terms of health care REITs and therefore, making it more comparable for you, the investor, as you look at our earnings. So that's the reason. In terms of G&A, I mentioned in my prepared remarks, we are investing in the platform. We are growing the platform. Low $150 million range on the cash G&A and that's on a growth rate in line with our enterprise growth rate is the expectation.

    我們認為,這正逐漸接近醫療保健 REIT 市場的現狀,因此,當您(投資者)查看我們的收益時,這將使您更具可比性。這就是原因。關於一般及行政費用,我在事先準備好的發言稿中提到過,我們正在對平台進行投資。我們正在發展壯大這個平台。現金一般及行政費用預計在 1.5 億美元左右,且成長率與我們的企業成長率一致,這是我們的預期。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ronald Kamdem, Morgan Stanley.

    羅納德‧卡姆登,摩根士丹利。

  • Ronald Kamdem - Analyst

    Ronald Kamdem - Analyst

  • Just two quick ones. I couldn't help notice the occupancy delta between the IL and AL product I guess, just wondering, is that all acuity-driven? And strategically, do you have a preference? Or is there an optimal mix as you're buying new assets versus IL and AL?

    就兩個簡單的問題。我注意到 IL 和 AL 產品之間的入住率差異,我想知道,這都是由病情嚴重程度決定的嗎?從策略角度來看,您有什麼偏好嗎?或者說,在購買新資產與IL和AL之間是否存在最佳組合?

  • J. Justin Hutchens - Executive Vice President - Senior Housing, Chief Investment Officer

    J. Justin Hutchens - Executive Vice President - Senior Housing, Chief Investment Officer

  • Yes, sure. So we did have some outperformance in our independent living portfolio. We'll expect that to continue to some degree in '26. I mean we're performing really well across both independent living and assisted living. But that's been an area of strength in terms of occupancy growth and we'll continue to press on that.

    當然可以。所以,我們的獨立生活投資組合確實取得了一些超預期表現。我們預計這種情況在 2026 年還會持續出現。我的意思是,我們在獨立生活和輔助生活方面都做得非常好。但就入住率成長而言,這一直是我們的優勢領域,我們將繼續在這方面努力。

  • We're about half and half by unit independent living and assisted living. And when we target acquisitions, we do like a mix. We do like that continuum of care offering not exclusively, but when we see it, we definitely give a higher priority because it offers independent living assisted and memory care together or at least two of those three together, which just going to attract a broader audience in terms of demand and also service offering.

    我們這裡獨立生活單元和輔助生活單元的比例大約各佔一半。當我們進行收購時,我們喜歡多元化的收購策略。我們確實喜歡這種連續性護理服務,但並非只喜歡,但如果我們看到這種服務,我們肯定會給予更高的優先級,因為它同時提供獨立生活輔助和記憶護理,或者至少同時提供這三者中的兩項,這在需求和服務方面都會吸引更廣泛的受眾。

  • Ronald Kamdem - Analyst

    Ronald Kamdem - Analyst

  • Great. And then can you just spend 2 seconds on just labor cost event, maybe the CapEx -- maybe CapEx per unit even because I saw the numbers were up, but presumably there was more units. But just broad these trends on labor costs and CapEx per unit for the product would be great.

    偉大的。然後,您能否花兩秒鐘談談人工成本事件,或許還有資本支出——甚至可以談談單位資本支出,因為我看到數字上升了,但想必是因為產量增加了。但只要能大致了解該產品的勞動成本和單位資本支出趨勢就很好了。

  • Robert Probst - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Robert Probst - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes. I'll take those. So on labor cost, we're assuming effectively just on a per hour basis, kind of normal inflation, nothing unusual there. And we are seeing, of course, significant volume growth when you look at the 5% OpEx guide that is really a function of the volume but that would be a good proxy for per hour on wages specifically. On CapEx, we did give the FAD guide that is up year-on-year from about $300 million to $400 million. You nailed it. It's led by more units, some inflation as well, but that's the driver.

    是的。我收下那些。所以,關於勞動成本,我們假設實際上只是按小時計算,遵循正常的通貨膨脹率,沒有什麼不尋常的。當然,我們看到銷量顯著增長,從 5% 的營運支出指導來看,這實際上是銷量的函數,但這可以很好地代表每小時工資水平。關於資本支出,我們給出了 FAD 指導價,該指導價同比上漲,從約 3 億美元上漲至 4 億美元。你做得太棒了。銷量增加是主要原因,通貨膨脹也是一部分因素,但這才是驅動因素。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Austin Wurschmidt, KeyBanc Capital Markets.

    Austin Wurschmidt,KeyBanc 資本市場。

  • Austin Wurschmidt - Analyst

    Austin Wurschmidt - Analyst

  • Justin, just going back to the 8% in-house rent increase. Have you seen any increase in move-outs as a result of the higher increase this year? And then could you just speak a little more broadly to some of those leading indicators?

    賈斯汀,我還是回到之前提到的8%的內部租金上漲政策。今年漲幅較高,您是否觀察到搬離房屋的人數增加?那麼,您能否更廣泛地談談其中的一些領先指標呢?

  • J. Justin Hutchens - Executive Vice President - Senior Housing, Chief Investment Officer

    J. Justin Hutchens - Executive Vice President - Senior Housing, Chief Investment Officer

  • Yes, sure. So first of all, it all starts with the quality of care and service delivery. That is paramount. And I mentioned in my prepared remarks, is really rewarding to be able to highlight some of the -- just the industry-leading recognition we're getting in our operators that we work with in that regard. That's what's most important and we're delivering really good services. We've established trust with residents and their families.

    當然可以。首先,一切都始於護理和服務品質。這一點至關重要。正如我在準備好的演講稿中提到的,能夠重點介紹我們在這方面與運營商合作所獲得的行業領先認可,真的令人感到欣慰。這才是最重要的,我們正在提供非常好的服務。我們與居民及其家人建立了信任關係。

  • And therefore, the value proposition is recognized by the customer. And therefore, we're not seeing anything unusual in terms of financially driven move-outs.

    因此,這種價值主張得到了顧客的認可。因此,在經濟因素驅動的搬遷方面,我們並沒有看到任何異常情況。

  • Austin Wurschmidt - Analyst

    Austin Wurschmidt - Analyst

  • That's helpful. And then I just wanted to go back with the follow-up to the noncash comp question. And wondering if going forward, should we be expecting any change to the composition of cash versus noncash comp moving forward? Because obviously, there's implications then on the year-on-year comparison for growth.

    那很有幫助。然後,我想就非現金補償問題再補充一點。我想知道,未來現金收入與非現金收入的組成是否會改變?因為很顯然,這會對年比增速產生影響。

  • Robert Probst - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Robert Probst - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • No, in '25 and '26, I mentioned, both are $0.08, and I wouldn't expect going forward there to be anything unusual as it relates to the noncash piece.

    不,我提到過,2025 年和 2026 年都是 0.08 美元,我不認為未來非現金部分會有任何異常情況。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Wes Golladay, Baird.

    韋斯·戈拉迪,貝爾德。

  • Wesley Golladay - Analyst

    Wesley Golladay - Analyst

  • I just have a quick question on development. I guess when do you think it would start to pick up, albeit off of a low level? And then how would Ventas like to participate? Would you like to participate, lend, develop or just wait and buy them afterwards?

    我有一個關於開發的小問題。我想問你覺得它什麼時候會開始回升,即使一開始水平很低?那麼 Ventas 想如何參與呢?您是想參與、出借、開發,還是只是等待之後再購買?

  • J. Justin Hutchens - Executive Vice President - Senior Housing, Chief Investment Officer

    J. Justin Hutchens - Executive Vice President - Senior Housing, Chief Investment Officer

  • Okay. Good question. So we like acquisitions. We like buying durable well-established in-place cash flow that will grow. That's been our priority from an investment standpoint.

    好的。問得好。所以我們喜歡收購。我們喜歡收購那些擁有穩定、可靠的現金流且未來會成長的公司。從投資角度來看,這始終是我們的首要任務。

  • In terms of development, first of all, we think rents need to be 20% to 30% higher and that's even at a relatively modest development yield. There's -- this is a tremendously well-supported business, though in every way, as we described on this earnings call. So it's very reasonable to expect that there will be new supply. We would also expect that the first to come that you would see announced in terms of starts would be ultra-premium products. And that's a product that is so differentiated in terms of price when they enter a market that they don't -- they're well positioned to be the price leader.

    就開發而言,首先,我們認為租金需要上漲 20% 到 30%,即使開發收益率相對較低。正如我們在本次財報電話會議上所描述的那樣,這家公司在各個方面都得到了極大的支持。因此,預期會有新的供應是完全合理的。我們也預計,最先公佈消息的將是超高階產品。而且,當他們進入市場時,他們的產品在價格方面具有如此大的差異化優勢,因此他們——他們完全有能力成為價格領導者。

  • So that would be the kind of the exception that you would see come early. And then -- but it's still going to take some time. Rents need to catch up. And when they do, as Debbie mentioned, you have a 3-year runway. And when that supply opens, you're hitting this tremendous amount of demand.

    所以,這種例外情況會很早就出現。然後——但這仍然需要一些時間。租金需要上漲。正如黛比提到的那樣,當他們真的這麼做時,你有三年的緩衝期。當供應打開時,就會出現巨大的需求。

  • So we really, really like the outlook in that regard.

    所以,我們非常非常看好這方面的前景。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • I will now turn the call back over to Debra Cafaro, Chairman and CEO of Ventas for closing remarks.

    現在我將把電話轉回給 Ventas 董事長兼執行長 Debra Cafaro,請她作總結發言。

  • Debra Cafaro - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Debra Cafaro - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Well, everyone, I do want to say we had a great year at Ventas in 2025, and we look forward to having another one this year. I want to thank you for joining today's call and for your interest in the company. We look forward to seeing you soon.

    各位,我想說的是,我們在 2025 年 Ventas 度過了非常棒的一年,我們期待今年也能再創佳績。感謝您參加今天的電話會議,也感謝您對公司的關注。我們期待很快見到你。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's call. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect.

    女士們、先生們,今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位的參與。您現在可以斷開連線了。