VSE Corp (VSEC) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the VSE Corporation Fourth Quarter Results Conference. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. (Operator Instructions). As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Noel Ryan, Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

早上好，歡迎來到 VSE 公司第四季度業績會議。此時，所有參與者都處於只聽模式。問答環節將在正式介紹之後進行。 （操作員說明）。提醒一下，這次會議正在錄製中。我現在想把會議轉交給你的主持人，投資者關係部的 Noel Ryan。請繼續，先生。

Thank you, and welcome to VSE Corporation's Fourth Quarter 2022 Results Conference Call. Leading the call today are our President and CEO, John Cuomo; and Chief Financial Officer, Stephen Griffin. The presentation we are sharing today is on our website, and we encourage you to follow along accordingly. Today's discussion contains forward-looking statements about future business and financial expectations. Actual results may differ significantly from those projected in today's forward-looking statements due to various risks and uncertainties, including the risks described in our periodic reports filed with the SEC. Except as required by law, we undertake no obligation to update our forward-looking statements. We are using non-GAAP financial measures in our presentation. The appropriate GAAP financial reconciliations are incorporated into our presentation where available, which is posted on our website. All percentages in today's discussion refer to year-over-year progress, except where noted. At the conclusion of our prepared remarks, we will open the line for questions. And with that, I would like to turn the call over to John Cuomo for his prepared remarks.

謝謝，歡迎參加 VSE Corporation 2022 年第四季度業績電話會議。今天主持電話會議的是我們的總裁兼首席執行官 John Cuomo；首席財務官 Stephen Griffin。我們今天分享的演示文稿在我們的網站上，我們鼓勵您相應地關注。今天的討論包含有關未來業務和財務預期的前瞻性陳述。由於各種風險和不確定性，包括我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的定期報告中描述的風險，實際結果可能與今天的前瞻性陳述中預測的結果大不相同。除法律要求外，我們不承擔更新前瞻性陳述的義務。我們在演示文稿中使用非 GAAP 財務指標。適當的 GAAP 財務對賬已納入我們的演示文稿（如有），該演示文稿發佈在我們的網站上。除非另有說明，否則今天討論中的所有百分比均指同比進展。在我們準備好的發言結束時，我們將打開提問熱線。有了這個，我想把電話轉給約翰·庫莫，讓他發表準備好的講話。

Thank you, Noel. Welcome, everyone, and thank you for joining our call today. 2022 was a defining milestone year in VSE company history, one where we delivered record results and one in which we effectively advanced our multiyear business transformation strategy. During the year, we executed new business awards with industry-leading customer service and strong revenue and profit contributions. We were awarded more than $450 million in new program wins. We added to our portfolio with both new market-leading distribution products and new service and MRO capability offerings. We invested in our businesses with new and upgraded facilities and IT systems to support scalability for future growth. Also, in 2022, we proudly celebrated our 40th year as a NASDAQ-listed company. And most importantly, we continue to invest in and upgrade our talent and team to drive our company culture. I'm incredibly proud of the VSE team. In 2022, all of this culminated in significant year-over-year revenue and profit growth and record full-year revenue for both our aviation and fleet segments. 

謝謝你，諾埃爾。歡迎大家，感謝您今天加入我們的電話會議。 2022 年是 VSE 公司歷史上具有里程碑意義的一年，我們取得了創紀錄的成果，也是我們有效推進多年業務轉型戰略的一年。年內，我們憑藉行業領先的客戶服務以及強勁的收入和利潤貢獻獲得了新的業務獎項。我們贏得了超過 4.5 億美元的新計劃。我們為我們的產品組合添加了市場領先的新分銷產品以及新服務和 MRO 功能產品。我們通過新的和升級的設施和 IT 系統對我們的業務進行投資，以支持未來增長的可擴展性。此外，在 2022 年，我們自豪地慶祝了我們在納斯達克上市公司成立 40 週年。最重要的是，我們繼續投資和提升我們的人才和團隊，以推動我們的公司文化。我為 VSE 團隊感到無比自豪。到 2022 年，所有這一切最終導致我們的航空和機隊部門的收入和利潤同比顯著增長，並創下全年收入記錄。

Let's now advance to Slide 3 of our conference call presentation. We delivered the record full-year 2022 results, highlighted by $949 million of revenue or growth of 26% year-over-year, with 27% growth in adjusted EBITDA and 34% growth in adjusted net income. Our Aviation segment posted an outstanding year with record segment revenues of $408 million, or 65% growth over the prior year. Adjusted EBITDA for the segment of $52 million increased 145% versus the prior year. Aviation segment adjusted EBITDA margin increased by 420 basis points year-over-year to 12.8%, given a more favorable mix of higher-margin repair revenue. Aviation segment adjusted EBITDA represented over 50% of the total company 2022 adjusted EBITDA versus 29% in the prior year, supported by balanced growth across both commercial and business and general aviation customers and both distribution and MRO revenue channels. Our Fleet segment also achieved record revenue results in 2022. Segment revenue of $261 million increased 12% compared to 2021, driven by growth within commercial and e-commerce fulfillment customers. Commercial fleet revenue increased 42% on a year-on-year basis and now represents 40% of total fleet segment revenue, a testimony to our successful segment customer diversification strategy. Fleet segment-adjusted EBITDA increased 9% on a year-over-year basis. 

現在讓我們進入電話會議演示的幻燈片 3。我們實現了創紀錄的 2022 年全年業績，突出表現在收入 9.49 億美元或同比增長 26%，其中調整後 EBITDA 增長 27%，調整後淨收入增長 34%。我們的航空部門今年表現出色，部門收入達到創紀錄的 4.08 億美元，比上一年增長 65%。該部門的調整後 EBITDA 為 5200 萬美元，較上年增長 145%。航空部門調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率同比增長 420 個基點至 12.8%，原因是利潤率較高的維修收入組合更為有利。航空部門調整後的 EBITDA 占公司 2022 年調整後 EBITDA 總額的 50% 以上，而上一年為 29%，這得益於商業和商業與通用航空客戶以及分銷和 MRO 收入渠道的平衡增長。我們的機隊部門在 2022 年也取得了創紀錄的收入。在商業和電子商務履行客戶增長的推動下，該部門的收入為 2.61 億美元，比 2021 年增長了 12%。商業機隊收入同比增長 42%，目前佔機隊部門總收入的 40%，這證明了我們成功的部門客戶多元化戰略。機隊細分調整後的 EBITDA 同比增長 9%。

The EBITDA improvement was supported by both commercial fleet growth and contributions from the U.S. Postal Service. Finally, our Federal and Defense segment contributed $280 million of revenue, up 4% over prior year. Our strong performance in Aviation and fleet was partially offset by a decline in Federal and Defence-adjusted EBITDA, due primarily to the continued shift from fixed price to cost plus contracts, along with contract expirations. In summary, new commercial growth and operational excellence drove record revenue and earnings in 2022. Let's turn to Slide 4 for our fourth quarter update on our key strategic priorities of building sustainable revenue, EBITDA growth and optimizing legacy programs. We made steady progress on each in the fourth quarter. First, new business growth and building sustainable revenue. 

EBITDA 的改善得益於商業船隊的增長和美國郵政服務的貢獻。最後，我們的聯邦和國防部門貢獻了 2.8 億美元的收入，比上年增長 4%。我們在航空和機隊方面的強勁表現被聯邦和國防調整後的 EBITDA 的下降部分抵消，這主要是由於從固定價格繼續轉向成本加合同，以及合同到期。總而言之，新的商業增長和卓越運營推動了 2022 年創紀錄的收入和收益。讓我們轉到幻燈片 4，了解我們第四季度關於建立可持續收入、EBITDA 增長和優化遺留項目的關鍵戰略重點的最新情況。我們在第四季度在每個方面都取得了穩步進展。首先，新業務增長和建立可持續收入。

We recently acquired Precision Fuel Components, a leading MRO provider for engine accessories and fuel systems supporting the business in general aviation and rotorcraft markets. This transaction expands VSE Aviation, specialty distribution, and MRO capabilities while positioning us to capitalize on higher-margin technical service opportunities. During the quarter, our fleet segment opened a new e-commerce fulfilment and distribution centre in the Memphis, Tennessee area, to increase the speed and service quality for aftermarket parts delivery. This investment will support the growing present and future demand for our e-commerce fulfilment and commercial fleet customers. This new facility includes a successful implementation of new ERP and warehouse management systems. We have begun to ship products and expect this new facility to contribute more than $50 million in sales for the Fleet segment in 2023. Finally, we are implementing strategies to ensure sustainable long-term growth in our Federal and Defense segments. 

我們最近收購了 Precision Fuel Components，這是一家領先的發動機配件和燃料系統 MRO 供應商，支持通用航空和旋翼飛機市場的業務。該交易擴展了 VSE Aviation、專業分銷和 MRO 能力，同時使我們能夠利用更高利潤的技術服務機會。本季度，我們的車隊部門在田納西州孟菲斯地區開設了一個新的電子商務履行和配送中心，以提高售後零件交付的速度和服務質量。這項投資將支持我們的電子商務履行和商業車隊客戶當前和未來不斷增長的需求。這個新設施包括成功實施新的 ERP 和倉庫管理系統。我們已經開始出貨產品，預計這個新設施將在 2023 年為艦隊部門貢獻超過 5000 萬美元的銷售額。最後，我們正在實施戰略，以確保我們的聯邦和國防部門實現可持續的長期增長。

The efforts of our new leadership and expanded business development teams resulted in an increase of 60% in our new business pipeline to $1.5 billion in total bids submitted and now pending award. Our next strategic priority is growing profit. Our Aviation segment's fourth quarter performance resulted in $15.8 million or an increase of 102% versus the prior year period. Aviation segment adjusted EBITDA represented 69% of total adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter versus 44% in the prior period, supported by both balanced growth across commercial and business and general aviation customers and both distribution and MRO revenue channels. In the fourth quarter, the aviation segment delivered the highest adjusted EBITDA margin in more than 3 years. The Fleet segment also grew adjusted EBITDA in the quarter. The 4% increase was driven by commercial sales growth and stable contributions from the U.S. Postal Service. Our third strategic priority is optimizing legacy programs. During the fourth quarter, our aviation segment commenced deliveries on the previously announced expansion of our Pratt & Whitney Canada 15-year distribution agreement. As part of this expanded agreement, VSE Aviation now provides engine spare parts and exchange support for accessories to business and general aviation engine customers, operators and maintenance providers in the Asia Pacific region. The Fleet segment also experienced solid legacy program performance from our USPS customers, including the continued expansion of product offerings supporting all USPS vehicle types. 

在我們新的領導層和擴大的業務開發團隊的努力下，我們的新業務渠道增加了 60%，已提交且目前待決的標書總額達到 15 億美元。我們的下一個戰略重點是增加利潤。我們的航空部門第四季度業績為 1580 萬美元，比去年同期增長 102%。航空部門調整後的 EBITDA 佔第四季度調整後 EBITDA 總額的 69%，而上一季度為 44%，這得益於商業和公務及通用航空客戶的均衡增長以及分銷和 MRO 收入渠道。第四季度，航空業務實現了 3 年多來最高的調整後 EBITDA 利潤率。機隊部門在本季度也增加了調整後的 EBITDA。 4% 的增長是由商業銷售增長和美國郵政服務的穩定貢獻推動的。我們的第三個戰略重點是優化遺留項目。在第四季度，我們的航空部門開始交付之前宣布的擴大普惠加拿大 15 年分銷協議的產品。作為該擴展協議的一部分，VSE Aviation 現在向亞太地區的公務和通用航空發動機客戶、運營商和維護供應商提供發動機備件和配件交換支持。車隊部門還從我們的 USPS 客戶那裡獲得了可靠的傳統計劃績效，包括支持所有 USPS 車輛類型的產品供應的持續擴展。

Our Federal and Defense segment continues to effectively support the Naval Sea Systems Command, or NAS, with foreign military sales following on technical support, which is a funded backlog in excess of $125 million. Last week, we received a 6-month extension on our existing bridge contract. Looking ahead, we await a second quarter-final award determination related to a 5-year renewal of this agreement. In summary, 3 years ago, we redefined our go-to-market value propositions and business strategies. The record revenue and margin expansion in 2022 validates and supports the opportunities that exist for VSE both today and into the future. I will now turn the call over to Steve for a detailed review of our financial performance.

我們的聯邦和國防部門繼續有效地支持海軍海上系統司令部 (NAS)，在技術支持之後進行對外軍事銷售，這是一項超過 1.25 億美元的積壓資金。上週，我們收到了現有橋樑合同的 6 個月延期。展望未來，我們等待與本協議 5 年續簽相關的第二個四分之一決賽裁決結果。總之，3 年前，我們重新定義了進入市場的價值主張和業務戰略。 2022 年創紀錄的收入和利潤增長證實並支持了 VSE 現在和未來存在的機會。我現在將把電話轉給史蒂夫，讓他詳細審查我們的財務業績。

Thanks, John. I will now turn to Slides 5 and 6 of the conference call materials to provide an overview of our fourth quarter and full-year 2022 performance. The fourth quarter was strong and capped a year of new records for many of our businesses. We recorded $234 million of revenue, an increase of 11% versus the prior year period. Aviation recorded another record quarter driven by organic growth from the execution of new distribution awards, continued recovery of commercial MRO activities, and strength in business and general aviation end markets. Fleet segment growth was supported by commercial fleet and e-commerce fulfilment, together with modestly higher contributions from the U.S. Postal Service. Federal and Defense revenue was lower, driven by the completion of certain U.S. Army contracts, offset partially by growth in U.S. Navy programs, specifically foreign military sales in support of ongoing aftermarket services. 

謝謝，約翰。我現在將轉向電話會議材料的幻燈片 5 和 6，以概述我們第四季度和 2022 年全年的業績。第四季度表現強勁，為我們的許多業務創造了一年的新紀錄。我們錄得 2.34 億美元的收入，比上年同期增長 11%。在執行新的分銷合同、商業 MRO 活動的持續復甦以及公務和通用航空終端市場的強勁推動下，航空業再創歷史新高。機隊部分的增長受到商業機隊和電子商務履行的支持，以及美國郵政總局略高的貢獻。受某些美國陸軍合同的完成推動，聯邦和國防收入較低，部分被美國海軍計劃的增長所抵消，特別是支持正在進行的售後服務的外國軍事銷售。

We generated $22.9 million and $8.7 million of adjusted EBITDA and adjusted net income, respectively, an increase of 29% for both measurements. Fourth quarter interest expense was higher than anticipated, driven by the recent Federal Reserve rate hikes and timing of cash flow in the quarter. We anticipate this higher interest expense to continue throughout 2023. For the full year 2022, we recorded $949 million in revenue, up 26% versus 2021, driven by growth in all business segments but primarily driven by the $160 million of the new aviation business. Total adjusted EBITDA for the year was $92 million, an increase of 27% versus 2021, and adjusted net income was $37 million, an increase of 34% versus 2021. Aviation segment adjusted EBITDA drove over $30 million of growth and helped to offset declines in the Federal and Defense segment. Now turning to Slide 7. We'll cover the Aviation segment results. Revenue increased 29% versus the prior year period to a record $107 million. Both distribution and MRO businesses grew, up 22% and 53%, respectively. Distribution growth was driven by a combination of new business and end-market activity. MRO benefited by higher commercial flight activity as it continues to track towards pre-pandemic levels. Our commercial MRO remains 7% behind pre-pandemic levels, in line with the overall market trends. Aviation adjusted EBITDA increased by 102% in the quarter, while adjusted EBITDA margins increased by 530 basis points to 14.7%, their highest level since 2019. For the full year 2022, Aviation generated record revenue of $408 million, led by organic investments in new distribution programs, contributions from the Global Parts acquisition and increases in MRO activity. Total adjusted EBITDA of $52 million was up 145%. And for the full year, adjusted EBITDA margins were 12.8%, up 420 basis points versus 2021.

我們分別產生了 2290 萬美元和 870 萬美元的調整後 EBITDA 和調整後淨收入，這兩項指標均增長了 29%。第四季度利息支出高於預期，這是受近期美聯儲加息和該季度現金流量時間安排的推動。我們預計這種較高的利息支出將持續到 2023 年。在 2022 年全年，我們錄得 9.49 億美元的收入，比 2021 年增長 26%，這是由所有業務部門的增長推動的，但主要是由 1.6 億美元的新航空業務推動的。全年調整後的 EBITDA 總額為 9200 萬美元，比 2021 年增長 27%，調整後的淨收入為 3700 萬美元，比 2021 年增長 34%。航空部門調整後的 EBITDA 推動了超過 3000 萬美元的增長，並幫助抵消了聯邦和國防部門。現在轉到幻燈片 7。我們將介紹航空部門的結果。收入較上年同期增長 29%，達到創紀錄的 1.07 億美元。分銷和 MRO 業務均有增長，分別增長 22% 和 53%。新業務和終端市場活動共同推動了分銷增長。 MRO 受益於更高的商業飛行活動，因為它繼續追踪大流行前的水平。我們的商業 MRO 仍比大流行前水平低 7%，這與整體市場趨勢一致。本季度航空調整後的 EBITDA 增長了 102%，而調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率增長了 530 個基點，達到 14.7%，為 2019 年以來的最高水平。2022 年全年，航空業務創造了創紀錄的 4.08 億美元收入，這主要得益於對新業務的有機投資分銷計劃、全球零部件收購的貢獻以及 MRO 活動的增加。調整後的 EBITDA 總額為 5200 萬美元，增長了 145%。全年調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為 12.8%，比 2021 年增長 420 個基點。

Within the Aviation segment, we anticipate revenue to grow between 7% and 15% year-over-year, driven by a balance of commercial end market recovery, new program execution and expected stabilization of business and general aviation markets. We do not anticipate material impacts associated with the recent Precision fuel components acquisition announced earlier this year. We anticipate adjusted EBITDA margins between 12% and 14%, driven by the mix of MRO activities and commercial recovery. Now turning to Slide 8. Fleet segment revenue increased 7% versus the prior year period, driven by higher commercial sales and e-commerce fulfilment support. Total commercial revenues were $24.9 million in the fourth quarter, an increase of 19% versus the prior year period. U.S. Postal Service revenues were up 6% versus the fourth quarter last year, which is included within our other government revenue. Segment-adjusted EBITDA of $7.9 million increased 4% versus the fourth quarter of 2021 as fleet continues to scale offerings and solutions for commercial customers. Adjusted EBITDA margins declined 40 basis points in the quarter, primarily as a result of $600,000 of prelaunch expenses for the new Memphis, Tennessee e-commerce Center of Excellence. For the full year 2022, Fleet generated record revenue of $261 million, with over $100 million in commercial revenue for the first time. 

在航空領域，我們預計收入將同比增長 7% 至 15%，這主要受商業終端市場復甦、新項目執行以及公務和通用航空市場預期穩定的平衡推動。我們預計今年早些時候宣布的近期精密燃料組件收購不會產生重大影響。在 MRO 活動和商業復甦的共同推動下，我們預計調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率在 12% 至 14% 之間。現在轉向幻燈片 8。在商業銷售和電子商務履行支持的推動下，機隊部門收入比上年同期增長 7%。第四季度商業總收入為 2490 萬美元，比去年同期增長 19%。美國郵政服務收入與去年第四季度相比增長了 6%，這包括在我們的其他政府收入中。部門調整後的 EBITDA 為 790 萬美元，比 2021 年第四季度增長 4%，因為車隊繼續為商業客戶擴展產品和解決方案。調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率在本季度下降了 40 個基點，這主要是由於田納西州孟菲斯新電子商務卓越中心的 600,000 美元啟動前費用。 2022 年全年，Fleet 創造了創紀錄的 2.61 億美元收入，商業收入首次超過 1 億美元。

Commercial now represents 40% of segment revenue, up from 32% in 2021. Adjusted EBITDA for the full year was $33 million, up 9% and highlights the opportunity to continue to increase total segment profitability while diversifying revenue. Looking to 2023, we anticipate revenue growth of 12% to 20% year-over-year as contributions from the commercial revenues, primarily from the recent Memphis, Tennessee facility launch, offset modestly lower U.S. postal service revenues. We expect an adjusted EBITDA rate between 11% and 13%. We anticipate margins modestly lower than that stated range for the first quarter as we ramp production in the new facility and expect to see stabilization towards the second half of 2023. Now turning to Slide 9. Federal and Defense segment revenue decreased 7% versus the prior year period as growth in U.S. Navy aftermarket services offset declines due to U.S. Army contract completions. Federal and Defence-adjusted EBITDA of $800,000 in the third quarter was down 77% year-over-year. 

商業業務現在佔部門收入的 40%，高於 2021 年的 32%。全年調整後的 EBITDA 為 3300 萬美元，增長 9%，這凸顯了在實現收入多元化的同時繼續提高部門總盈利能力的機會。展望 2023 年，我們預計收入將同比增長 12% 至 20%，因為商業收入的貢獻（主要來自最近田納西州孟菲斯設施的啟動）抵消了美國郵政服務收入的小幅下降。我們預計調整後的 EBITDA 率為 11% 至 13%。我們預計第一季度的利潤率會略低於規定的範圍，因為我們會增加新工廠的產量，並預計到 2023 年下半年會穩定下來。現在轉到幻燈片 9。聯邦和國防部門的收入與之前相比下降了 7%年期間，美國海軍售後服務的增長抵消了美國陸軍合同完成造成的下降。第三季度聯邦和國防調整後的 EBITDA 為 800,000 美元，同比下降 77%。

Adjusted EBITDA margins declined 400 basis points on a year-over-year basis to 1.3%, driven by the mix of cost-plus contracts and the effects of contract completions. In the quarter, we recorded a contract loss of $4.1 million associated with the completion of a specific fixed-price non-DoD contract with a foreign customer that is not considered indicative of ongoing business operations or strategy. There are no continuing obligations associated with this program, and we do not anticipate any further impacts. For the full year, federal and defense revenue increased 4% to $280 million, primarily as a result of our U.S. Navy program, which was up 45% year-over-year as a result of a vessel transfer to the Royal Bahrain Naval Force. Adjusted EBITDA declined 55% to a $10.8 million year-over-year due to the shift to more cost-plus contracts, which represent 50% of total segment revenue, up from 35% in 2021. As a result of the nonrepeating 2022 U.S. Navy vessel transfer, we anticipate between a 5% and 10% revenue decline in 2023 for the Federal and Defense business and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 1% to 3% as we continue to invest in new business development resources and capabilities that will drive incremental growth in 2024 and beyond. 

調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率同比下降 400 個基點至 1.3%，受成本加成合同組合和合同完工影響的推動。本季度，我們記錄了 410 萬美元的合同損失，與完成與外國客戶的特定固定價格非國防部合同相關，該合同不被視為表明正在進行的業務運營或戰略。沒有與此計劃相關的持續義務，我們預計不會產生任何進一步的影響。全年，聯邦和國防收入增長 4% 至 2.8 億美元，這主要是由於我們的美國海軍計劃，由於將船隻轉移到皇家巴林海軍部隊，該計劃同比增長 45%。調整後的 EBITDA 同比下降 55% 至 1,080 萬美元，原因是更多的成本加成合同佔部門總收入的 50%，高於 2021 年的 35%。由於 2022 年美國海軍的非重複性船舶轉運，我們預計 2023 年聯邦和國防業務的收入將下降 5% 至 10%，調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為 1% 至 3%，因為我們將繼續投資於新的業務發展資源和能力，以推動增量增長2024 年及以後。

Turning to Slide 10. At the end of the fourth quarter, we had $160 million in cash and unused commitment availability under our $450 million credit facility. We generated $8.5 million of free cash flow in the quarter, primarily driven by revenue growth and the successful execution of recent aviation distribution awards. For the full year 2022, we used $3.2 million of free cash flow, which includes $10 million of fourth-quarter inventory investments to support the previously announced VSE aviation expansion into the Asia Pacific region for our existing Pratt & Whitney Canada Engine Accessories Program. At the end of the year, we had total net debt outstanding of $286 million and trailing 12 months adjusted EBITDA of $92 million. Net leverage was 3.1x in the fourth quarter, down from 3.4x at the end of the third quarter and down from 3.9x as of year-end 2021. We anticipate 2023 net leverage to end modestly higher than year-end 2022. However, we expect that during the second and third quarter, it will increase closer to 4x as we make the remaining investments in working capital to support both the Fleet Memphis facility and Aviation Pratt & Whitney Asia expansion. We still anticipate the total initial investments for these 2 combined to be $70 million, of which $10 million was spent in the fourth quarter already. We started 2023 strong with a key aviation acquisition and a new fleet facility opening. We are well-positioned to execute on our 2023 operating plan. Operator, we are now ready for the question-and-answer portion of our call.

轉到幻燈片 10。在第四季度末，我們的 4.5 億美元信貸額度下有 1.6 億美元的現金和未使用的可用承諾。我們在本季度產生了 850 萬美元的自由現金流，這主要是由於收入增長和最近航空分銷獎勵的成功執行。在 2022 年全年，我們使用了 320 萬美元的自由現金流，其中包括 1000 萬美元的第四季度庫存投資，以支持之前宣布的 VSE 航空業務向亞太地區擴張，以實現我們現有的普惠加拿大發動機配件計劃。到年底，我們的未償還淨債務總額為 2.86 億美元，過去 12 個月的調整後 EBITDA 為 9200 萬美元。第四季度的淨槓桿率為 3.1 倍，低於第三季度末的 3.4 倍和截至 2021 年底的 3.9 倍。我們預計 2023 年淨槓桿率將略高於 2022 年底。但是，我們預計在第二和第三季度，隨著我們對營運資金進行剩餘投資以支持 Fleet Memphis 設施和普惠航空在亞洲的擴張，這一數字將增長接近 4 倍。我們仍然預計這兩個項目的初始投資總額為 7000 萬美元，其中 1000 萬美元已經在第四季度支出。我們以重要的航空收購和新機隊設施的啟用開啟了 2023 年的強勁局面。我們有能力執行我們的 2023 年運營計劃。接線員，我們現在準備好進行電話的問答部分。

Thank you, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now be conducting a question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions). The first question we have is from Kenneth Herbert from RBC.

謝謝你，先生。女士們先生們，我們現在將進行問答環節。（操作員說明）。第一個問題來自 RBC 的肯尼斯·赫伯特。

This is actually Steve Stratos on for Ken Herbert. Starting with the guidance for this year, where do you see the most conservatism within the guide? And maybe where do you see the most upside with regard to any of the segments?

這實際上是 Steve Stratos 代替 Ken Herbert。從今年的指南開始，您認為指南中最保守的地方在哪裡？也許您認為任何細分市場的最大優勢在哪裡？

I think the guidance we've given is pretty accurate as to what we expect the businesses to do this year. As we look at each one of the 3 business segments, the Aviation business, we've got some new execution of our Pratt Asia contract as well as the continued commercial end market recovery, which will help to drive the top line, which we believe is pretty solid. As we look towards the fleet segment, a lot of the growth that we're expecting to see is in the commercial side of our business, as you would expect, the new most recent Memphis facility launch will drive some really good improvement in terms of total commercial revenues in the business. We expect to see some modestly lower USPS revenue. And as always, that's a business that's difficult for us to predict, but we do expect modestly lower revenue. And then, in the federal business, we mentioned that we expect the total top-line revenue to be down on a year-over-year basis, primarily driven by the large one-time vessel transfer that happened during 2022 as well as some contract completions. But we're very focused on making sure that business has a sustainable growth trajectory headed out into 2024 and beyond. But I'd say across the board, the guidance is in line with what we'd expect to see. Yes. I think where there's a level of conservatism would be at the back end of the year with Aviation and federal. I think our fleet business, we've been very transparent about the contributions from our new warehouse. I think that when we look at the back end Q3, and Q4 for Aviation and federal, we know we will win new business. The question is what will we win and how much of that will contribute in the back end of the year versus 2024. And I would say there's some opportunity for upside there.

我認為我們給出的指導對於我們期望企業今年做什麼是非常準確的。當我們審視航空業務這 3 個業務部門中的每一個時，我們已經獲得了 Pratt Asia 合同的一些新執行以及商業終端市場的持續復甦，這將有助於推動收入增長，我們相信這很結實。當我們著眼於機隊部分時，我們期望看到的很多增長是在我們業務的商業方面，正如您所期望的那樣，最近孟菲斯設施的推出將在以下方面帶來一些非常好的改進業務的總商業收入。我們預計 USPS 收入會略有下降。和往常一樣，這是一項我們難以預測的業務，但我們確實預計收入會略有下降。然後，在聯邦業務中，我們提到我們預計總收入將同比下降，這主要是由於 2022 年發生的大型一次性船舶轉運以及一些合同完成。但我們非常專注於確保企業在 2024 年及以後擁有可持續的增長軌跡。但我要說的是，該指南與我們期望看到的一致。是的。我認為在年底航空和聯邦方面會有一定程度的保守主義。我認為我們的車隊業務，我們對新倉庫的貢獻一直非常透明。我認為，當我們查看航空和聯邦的後端 Q3 和 Q4 時，我們知道我們將贏得新業務。問題是我們將贏得什麼，以及與 2024 年相比，今年年底將有多少貢獻。我想說那裡有一些上漲的機會。

That's great. And then if I could add just one more. Can you provide an update on kind of the Navy Sea defense contract and kind of when you expect to have a long-term contract in place?

那太棒了。然後如果我可以再添加一個。您能否提供有關海軍海防合同種類的最新信息以及您希望何時簽訂長期合同的種類？

Sure. The contract -- the bridge contract expires in early August of this year. Our pricing is valid on the recompete through the end of May of this year. So we do anticipate a notice of an award in the second quarter. And then, post notice, we will share a strategic update on the Federal and Defense segment, and give a little bit more clarity on that business.

當然。合同——過橋合同將於今年8月初到期。我們的定價在今年 5 月底之前的重新競爭中有效。因此，我們確實預計會在第二季度收到獎勵通知。然後，發布通知，我們將分享有關聯邦和國防部門的戰略更新，並對該業務進行更清晰的說明。

The next question we have is from Peter Osterland from Trust Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 Trust Securities 的 Peter Osterland。

I'm Mike Shamoli this morning. First, just wanted to ask on the Aviation segment, just given that your 4Q margins were higher than what you're expecting for 2023. I was just wondering was the product mix in the fourth quarter a bit of an outlier or are there any input cost pressures you'd call out that you're expecting to pressure margins in the coming quarters?

今天早上我是 Mike Shamoli。首先，只想問一下航空領域，因為您的 4Q 利潤率高於您對 2023 年的預期。我只是想知道第四季度的產品組合是否有點異常，或者是否有任何輸入成本壓力是您預計未來幾個季度的利潤率壓力嗎？

Yes. We saw very strong results, as you can see, in the fourth quarter, kind of recurrent returning to that pre-COVID level of mid-teens, as we've explained in the past. When we look to 2023, we continue to see the opportunity for commercial recovery to help the business and a bit more stabilization in the business and general aviation side. So rather than it being more like an input cost dynamic, I think we look at the business in the general aviation side of our total segment as being very robust in the back half of last year. And we expect to see that start to stabilize to some extent as we look into this year, and therefore, a bit more of a guide as you see to the 12% to 14% range. I think the business can vary as we go quarter-to-quarter, but we're very, very pleased with the results in the fourth quarter.

是的。正如您在第四季度看到的那樣，我們看到了非常強勁的結果，就像我們過去解釋過的那樣，有點像我們過去解釋的那樣，經常回到 COVID 前的青少年中期水平。展望 2023 年，我們繼續看到商業復甦的機會，以幫助業務發展，以及公務航空和通用航空方面的穩定。因此，與其說它更像是一種投入成本動態，不如說我們認為我們整個部門的通用航空業務在去年下半年非常強勁。我們希望看到今年開始在某種程度上穩定下來，因此，正如您所看到的 12% 到 14% 的範圍，更多的是一個指導。我認為每個季度的業務可能會有所不同，但我們對第四季度的結果非常非常滿意。

That makes sense. And then, as a follow-up, I just wanted to ask how are you on labor? Do you have any significant headcount that you need to add in the coming year? And are you experiencing any issues with productivity or elevated attrition?

這就說得通了。然後，作為後續行動，我只想問一下你的分娩情況如何？您是否需要在來年增加大量員工？您是否遇到任何有關生產力或人員流失率的問題？

No, I'd say there's a level of stabilization in the markets. Technical labour in aviation is always a challenge, and we continue to manage that challenge. We have a new facility in Memphis that we're standing up for. We've got the ERP systems in a brand new, and they're running very well. We are shipping the product out. We are still staffing that team up as we get ready to scale for that back end of the year, which will generate about $50 million of new revenue. But I wouldn't say there's anything material or out of the norm other than what we've previously communicated.

不，我會說市場有一定程度的穩定。航空技術勞動始終是一項挑戰，我們將繼續應對這一挑戰。我們在孟菲斯有一個我們支持的新設施。我們擁有全新的 ERP 系統，並且運行良好。我們正在運送產品。我們仍在為該團隊配備人員，因為我們準備在年底擴大規模，這將產生約 5000 萬美元的新收入。但我不會說除了我們之前溝通過的內容之外，還有任何實質性或不合常規的內容。

The next question we have is from Michael DiPalma from William Blair & Company.

我們的下一個問題來自 William Blair & Company 的 Michael DiPalma。

Steve, for VSE Aviation, you showed great operating leverage. Should the long-term margin exceed your pre-pandemic level because of all of the scale that you've added with the new partnerships? And just in general, how do you balance the margin in your growth?

史蒂夫，對於 VSE Aviation，你展示了強大的運營槓桿。由於您通過新合作夥伴關係增加的所有規模，長期利潤率是否應該超過大流行前的水平？總的來說，您如何平衡增長的利潤率？

Great question, Louis. I would say, long term, we would say mid-teens is our margin rate expectation for this business. If you go back to pre-COVID, right at about 15% is where they operated. I think if you look at the fourth quarter, you can see that this business is very capable of doing that, even though it's double the size of what it used to be. So all the new business that we've added has been at least the margin rates that we've been at pre-COVID. So we feel that as we look to the long term, that mid-teens margin rate is absolutely the expectation in the long run. And as we continue to scale as we acquire businesses that we think are very complementary, they're at higher margins or provide synergy opportunities. There might be an opportunity to go higher than that. And it all comes down to execution and driving scale on the existing business. So at this point, we're very, very pleased with its performance. And I think we are excited about driving it forward in '23 and '24 and beyond.

很好的問題，路易斯。我會說，從長遠來看，我們會說我們對這項業務的利潤率預期是十幾歲。如果你回到 COVID 之前，大約有 15% 是他們經營的地方。我認為如果你看一下第四季度，你會發現這家公司非常有能力做到這一點，儘管它的規模是過去的兩倍。因此，我們添加的所有新業務至少是我們在 COVID 之前的保證金率。所以我們覺得，從長遠來看，十幾歲的利潤率絕對是長期的預期。隨著我們繼續擴大規模，因為我們收購了我們認為非常互補的業務，它們的利潤率更高或提供了協同機會。可能有機會走得更高。這一切都歸結為現有業務的執行和推動規模。所以在這一點上，我們對它的表現非常非常滿意。我認為我們很高興能在 23 年和 24 年及以後推動它向前發展。

Great. And for John, for the Pratt & Whitney Canada, Asia expansion, is the main revenue contribution expected to be in 2024? Or is that already happening right now?

偉大的。對於 John 來說，對於 Pratt & Whitney 加拿大、亞洲的擴張，主要的收入貢獻預計將在 2024 年出現嗎？或者現在已經發生了？

It's starting to happen now. It will -- it's a slower ramp than we had in the Americas just because of the complexity of -- we're working mostly out of Singapore and Australia. So you'll start to see it ramp more in the second quarter of this year.

它現在開始發生了。它將——這比我們在美洲的增長速度要慢，因為它的複雜性——我們主要在新加坡和澳大利亞開展工作。所以你會開始看到它在今年第二季度出現更多增長。

Great. And also, last October at the NBAA conference, you announced distribution partnerships, or they may have been extensions and modest expansions with Bombardier and MBA. How are those deals progressing?

偉大的。而且，去年 10 月在 NBAA 會議上，您宣布了分銷合作夥伴關係，或者它們可能是與龐巴迪和 MBA 的擴展和適度擴展。這些交易進展如何？

Yes. I mean, the Bombardier program, which is really the cornerstone of our global parts business. So that was a renewal of that existing business. It was a really important part of that business. And we've been able to outperform our internal forecast that we focused on. Steve, do you want to share a little bit about the growth in global, which obviously is very much related to that agreement?

是的。我的意思是，龐巴迪計劃，它確實是我們全球零部件業務的基石。所以這是對現有業務的更新。這是該業務的一個非常重要的部分。而且我們已經能夠超越我們關注的內部預測。史蒂夫，你想分享一點關於全球增長的信息嗎，這顯然與該協議密切相關？

Yes. I mean, the Global Parts acquisition, which came with some of the great relationships with Bombardier, grew over 30% just on a stand-alone basis from '21 to '22. Not all of that was in our numbers, obviously, because '21, they were a separate business. But I think that highlights the execution of the teams and how well they've done in relation to those agreements you're referencing.

是的。我的意思是，與龐巴迪建立了一些良好關係的 Global Parts 收購從 21 年到 22 年僅在獨立基礎上就增長了 30% 以上。顯然，並非所有這些都在我們的數字中，因為 '21，它們是一個獨立的業務。但我認為這突出了團隊的執行力以及他們在您所引用的那些協議方面的表現。

Great. And one last one, the business aviation market has obviously been or was very hot for the past 2 years in terms of bookings for the major OEMs, and it's been a very strong contributor for you. Are you seeing any signs of a slowdown in that segment?

偉大的。最後一個，在過去 2 年中，公務航空市場在主要原始設備製造商的預訂方面顯然已經或非常火爆，這對您來說是一個非常強大的貢獻者。您是否看到該細分市場放緩的跡象？

It's a great question. You read about kind of what's happening in that market, and there's a little bit of mixed data. I'd say what we're seeing is definitely a little more stabilization of the market. So I would not expect -- we had -- most of the market data that we saw was forecasting a high single-digit growth rate in that business for 2023. We shared, I think, on our last call that we were looking at more a mid-single-digit growth rate, so that's a little bit of price and a little bit of volume. So we're definitely seeing the market less aggressive on growth, but we still see 2023 as a growth year for business and General Aviation for our business.

這是一個很好的問題。您了解了該市場正在發生的事情，並且有一些混合數據。我想說的是，我們所看到的肯定是市場更加穩定了。因此，我不希望——我們有——我們看到的大多數市場數據都預測 2023 年該業務的高個位數增長率。我認為，我們在上次電話會議上分享了我們正在尋找更多一個中位數的增長率，所以這是一點點的價格和一點點的數量。因此，我們肯定會看到市場在增長方面不那麼積極，但我們仍然認為 2023 年是我們業務的公務和通用航空業務增長的一年。

The next question we have is from Austin Moeller from Canaccord.

我們的下一個問題來自 Canaccord 的 Austin Moeller。

So my question is just about the airlines. How much pent-up demand do you think there is still with the airlines for repair services, just given that MRO is a higher margin than the parts distribution? And do you think it will remain robust even if there's -- if we go into recession in, like, the second half of the year?

所以我的問題是關於航空公司的。考慮到 MRO 的利潤率高於零件分銷，您認為航空公司對維修服務還有多少被壓抑的需求？你認為它會保持強勁，即使有 - 如果我們在今年下半年陷入衰退？

Yes. I think it's a great question. And I think from our perspective, everyone was expecting -- I'm drawing up with my hand, but everyone was expecting that spike in demand as the recovery from COVID happened. And what we've continued to share is our month-over-month inputs on repair work on the commercial business just continued to increase. We saw that through the end of last year. We are seeing that as we start 2023. We believe that most -- more of our business is domestic than international. And we do believe that regardless of the kind of recessionary impacts that we're going to see is stable growing markets. And if you remember, if you look at most of the major airlines and look at even their summer travel, they are -- they have less airplanes than they want to have. They have less pilots than they want to have. So their capacity is at a premium. And even if there's kind of some slight pullback from our recessionary impact, we're not anticipating seeing a major difference in RPKs in totality. So yes, we're still seeing the month-over-month improvement. And again, it's nice and gradual, which is great because it's allowing us to staff and manage our capacity as well.

是的。我認為這是一個很好的問題。我認為從我們的角度來看，每個人都在期待——我正在用手畫畫，但每個人都在期待隨著 COVID 的複蘇發生而需求激增。我們繼續分享的是，我們對商業業務維修工作的逐月投入持續增加。我們在去年年底看到了這一點。我們在 2023 年開始時就看到了這一點。我們相信，我們的大部分業務都是國內業務，而不是國際業務。而且我們確實相信，無論我們將看到什麼樣的衰退影響，都是穩定增長的市場。如果你還記得的話，如果你看看大多數主要航空公司，甚至看看他們的夏季旅行，他們的飛機數量比他們想要的要少。他們的飛行員比他們想要的少。因此，他們的能力非常寶貴。即使我們的經濟衰退影響略有回落，我們也不會預計整體 RPK 會出現重大差異。所以是的，我們仍然看到月環比的改善。再一次，它很好而且循序漸進，這很棒，因為它也讓我們能夠配備人員和管理我們的能力。

Okay. And then I think you touched on this already in your remarks, but I guess you're confident in the cash balance and the debt needed to support the inventory to ramp Memphis?

好的。然後我認為你已經在你的評論中提到了這一點，但我想你對現金餘額和支持庫存以增加孟菲斯所需的債務有信心？

Yes, we are. As you can see in the fourth quarter, we generated $8 million of free cash flow. We used about $3 million in the year. Most of that was driven by -- we did acquire $10 million of inventory in the fourth quarter as part of our Pratt & Whitney Canada Asia expansion. So we're very pleased with the ability for us to improve the net leverage of the business. Last year at this time, was 3.9x. We ended the year at 3.1x, in line with what we had communicated. Now as we look towards this year, we do expect that net leverage to increase as we bring on the working capital required to launch the 2 facilities. So you should expect to see us use some cash here in the first and the second quarter with back-half improvements, very similar to how we've done in the last year or 2. 

是的我們是。正如您在第四季度看到的那樣，我們產生了 800 萬美元的自由現金流。我們一年用了大約 300 萬美元。其中大部分是由——我們在第四季度確實獲得了 1000 萬美元的庫存，作為我們普惠加拿大亞洲擴張的一部分。因此，我們對提高業務淨槓桿的能力感到非常滿意。去年此時是 3.9 倍。我們以 3.1 倍的價格結束了這一年，這與我們所傳達的一致。現在，當我們展望今年時，我們確實預計淨槓桿率會隨著我們提供啟動這兩個設施所需的營運資金而增加。因此，您應該期望看到我們在第一季度和第二季度在這裡使用一些現金並進行後半部分改進，這與我們在去年或第二年所做的非常相似。

But we feel very comfortable with the current credit facility as well as the opportunities that exist in the demand profile. So we continue to trade in line with what we've communicated in the last quarter, which is that in totality, these businesses will use about $70 million of working capital and CapEx to launch both the Asia Pacific program for Pratt and the new Memphis facility, 10 million already being spent in the fourth quarter. And Austin, remember, once we start to scale the shipments out of Memphis, that inventory will start to turn very quickly. So it's not a long return on that investment. It's by the third and fourth quarter, you're going to see that inventory really start to move, and you're going to see the cash generation happen pretty quickly. So it's really just a blip, both in terms of decline in operating margin for the fleet business because all of that was done organically in the beginning of the year as well as the cash impact. So that business will get right back on track. It's a great growth opportunity for us and a really fast return on the investment that we're putting into that facility, both from an expense perspective and an inventory perspective.

但我們對當前的信貸安排以及需求狀況中存在的機會感到非常滿意。因此，我們繼續按照我們在上個季度傳達的內容進行交易，即總的來說，這些企業將使用大約 7000 萬美元的營運資金和資本支出來啟動 Pratt 的亞太計劃和新的孟菲斯工廠，第四季度已經花費了1000萬。奧斯汀，請記住，一旦我們開始擴大孟菲斯的出貨量，庫存就會開始非常迅速地周轉。因此，這項投資的回報不會很長。到第三和第四季度，你會看到庫存真正開始移動，你會看到現金產生很快。所以這真的只是一個曇花一現，無論是就車隊業務的營業利潤率下降而言，因為所有這些都是在年初有機地完成的，以及現金影響。這樣生意就會重回正軌。這對我們來說是一個巨大的增長機會，並且從費用角度和庫存角度來看，我們投入該設施的投資回報非常快。

Great. I can't wait to see the inventory fly off the shelves.

偉大的。我迫不及待地想看到庫存飛速下架。

Me too. I've seen it come in, and I can't really just see it go out.

我也是。我已經看到它進來了，但我真的不能只看到它出去。

The next question we have is from Jeffrey Van Sinderen B. Riley.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jeffrey Van Sinderen B. Riley。

Just wanted to follow up on the Memphis facility. I realize you just stood that up, but maybe you can touch on what is left to do to optimize efficiency at Memphis. And then also maybe just remind us of the long-term outlook for the benefits from that facility.

只是想跟進孟菲斯設施。我知道你剛剛堅持了下來，但也許你可以談談在孟菲斯優化效率還需要做些什麼。然後也可能只是提醒我們該設施帶來的好處的長期前景。

Yes. I mean, so when we launched our commercial business, I've been with the business for about 4 years now. We really launched the commercial business when I started. If you look back, this business had a tremendous amount of concentration in it. And we said we've got to focus on customer diversification through commercial customers and e-commerce customers. So if you look back at 4 years ago, very, very nominal revenue out of that channel. This year -- well, 2022, we finished at $100 million of revenue in that channel. All of that was done organically. We were at a point where we knew what the demand was, we didn't have the capacity to support it, which is why we set up the Memphis facility. So we know we can generate an additional $50 million of commercial revenue out of that site this year, but we also know that there's further demand and further disruption that we can do in that market to support future growth, and that gives us the capacity to do it, along with standing up the facility, again, to build that scalable growth, which will drive lower SG&A as a percentage of sales over time and also that perfect order coming out of that site. We launched a new ERP system, a new warehouse management system. So it's like a crawl walk run model. We're only taking enough orders that we can be perfect. And that's what we did in January, February. As we kicked off March, each day or each week, we're talking about record number of lines that we're shipping out of that site as we're slowly starting to scale. And we're just taking a methodical approach to scaling it because we want to be perfect to our customers as we ship out of that site. So obviously, with any new ERP system, you find ways to optimize. But I went and picked and pack and order myself out there. It's a great system. You can get trained on the system quickly. A lot of controls in place to drive order accuracy and timeliness of orders as well. And we feel very bullish on that investment.

是的。我的意思是，當我們開展商業業務時，我已經從事這項業務大約 4 年了。當我開始時，我們真正開展了商業業務。如果你回顧過去，你會發現這項業務非常專注。我們說我們必須通過商業客戶和電子商務客戶來關注客戶多樣化。因此，如果您回顧 4 年前，該渠道的收入非常非常名義上。今年——嗯，2022 年，我們在該渠道的收入達到了 1 億美元。所有這些都是有機完成的。我們當時知道需求是什麼，但我們沒有能力支持它，這就是我們建立孟菲斯工廠的原因。所以我們知道今年我們可以從該網站產生額外的 5000 萬美元商業收入，但我們也知道我們可以在該市場做更多的需求和進一步的破壞以支持未來的增長，這使我們有能力這樣做，並再次建立設施，以建立可擴展的增長，這將隨著時間的推移推動較低的 SG&A 佔銷售額的百分比，以及來自該站點的完美訂單。我們推出了新的ERP系統，新的倉庫管理系統。所以它就像一個爬走跑跑模型。我們只接受足夠的訂單，我們可以做到完美。這就是我們在一月、二月所做的。當我們從 3 月開始時，每一天或每週，我們都在談論我們正在慢慢開始擴展時從該站點運送的創紀錄數量的線路。我們只是採取一種有條不紊的方法來擴展它，因為我們希望在我們從該站點發貨時對我們的客戶來說是完美的。很明顯，對於任何新的 ERP 系統，您都可以找到優化方法。但我去那裡挑選、打包和訂購自己。這是一個很棒的系統。您可以快速接受系統培訓。許多控制措施也可以提高訂單的準確性和及時性。我們非常看好這項投資。

Okay. Great to hear. And then I just wanted to touch on the USPS part of the fleet business for a minute, if we could. Just wondering what's based in your guidance for that? I realize it's tough to predict.

好的。很高興聽到。然後，如果可以的話，我只想談一談車隊業務的 USPS 部分。只是想知道您對此的指導是基於什麼？我意識到很難預測。

Yes, we've got an expectation of modest declines in that business. We do anticipate that some of the new next-gen delivery vehicles will begin to be delivered at the end of this year. And as a result, we do expect that the total legacy repair portfolio may go down slightly. That drives sort of our assumption as to the modest declines in the top-line performance for USPS for our business. Now all that said, it's going to be quarter-to-quarter pretty dynamic. So as you see just last quarter in the fourth quarter, it was up 6%. And for the full year last year, it was up 5%. So I mean, had a strong start to the year. Yes. And so it's going to be dynamic quarter-to-quarter, but we do expect those modest declines primarily more in the back half of the year.

是的，我們預計該業務會出現適度下滑。我們確實預計一些新的下一代運載工具將在今年年底開始交付。因此，我們確實預計整個遺留維修組合可能會略有下降。這推動了我們對 USPS 對我們業務的頂線業績適度下降的假設。話雖如此，每個季度都將充滿活力。因此，正如您在第四季度的最後一個季度看到的那樣，它上漲了 6%。去年全年，它上漲了 5%。所以我的意思是，今年開局良好。是的。因此，每個季度都將充滿活力，但我們確實預計這些適度下降主要在今年下半年出現。

Okay. And then, if I could just squeeze in one more. Just wondering kind of the latest you're seeing in terms of acquisitions, wondering if the leverage going up a little bit as we're kind of getting to midyear if that might slow down the pace of acquisitions in Aviation. Maybe just if you could touch on the attractiveness and potential targets, valuation metrics you're seeing -- any comments on your pipeline... The ability of some of the larger deals?

好的。然後，如果我能再擠一個。只是想知道你在收購方面看到的最新情況，想知道槓桿是否會在我們接近年中時有所上升，這是否會減緩航空業的收購步伐。也許只是如果你能觸及你所看到的吸引力和潛在目標、估值指標——對你的管道的任何評論……一些更大的交易的能力？

Yes, we've got -- we manage 2 pipelines. We've got deals that are kind of a sub $5 million of EBITDA, kind of smaller tuck-in deals that are less publicly marketed. And then we've got kind of larger deals for us kind of 5 to 10 or so of EBITDA that are more publicly marketed. We've got a very robust pipeline. We believe when you look at -- let's just talk about kind of core aerospace aftermarket quality assets that are usually publicly marketed, those trade in the mid-teens. I mean, those are high multiple deals. We believe as a publicly traded company, we have the capacity under our current facilities to do deals, and we believe that in this market, we're well positioned because our certainty of closure is stronger than potential sponsors in this market, and that can give us the advantage to get deals done at potentially lower than historic multiples. So we're -- we continue to feel very robust about the pipeline. And we continue to look at made potential non-core assets as well that potential exit to help us fund things as well that it wouldn't only be funded through our current facility. But we've got the capacity in the facility, and you won't see a slowdown in that front.

是的，我們有——我們管理著 2 條管道。我們有一些交易的 EBITDA 不到 500 萬美元，這是一種較少公開營銷的較小的折入交易。然後我們有一些更大的交易，比如 5 到 10 左右的 EBITDA，這些交易更公開。我們有一個非常強大的管道。我們相信，當你看到 - 讓我們談談通常公開銷售的核心航空航天售後市場優質資產，這些資產在十幾歲左右進行交易。我的意思是，這些都是高倍數的交易。我們相信，作為一家上市公司，我們有能力在現有設施下進行交易，我們相信在這個市場上，我們處於有利地位，因為我們關閉的確定性比這個市場上的潛在讚助商更強，而且可以使我們有優勢以可能低於歷史倍數的價格完成交易。所以我們 - 我們繼續對管道感到非常強大。我們繼續研究潛在的非核心資產以及潛在的退出，以幫助我們為事物提供資金，它不僅會通過我們目前的設施提供資金。但我們已經擁有設施的容量，你不會看到這方面的放緩。

The final question we have is from Joshua Sullivan from the Benchmark Company.

我們的最後一個問題來自 Benchmark 公司的 Joshua Sullivan。

On the Memphis facility, looking at that $50 million incremental, can you just provide some insight on the customer composition? How many greater than 10% customers do you think you ultimately have?

在孟菲斯工廠，看看 5000 萬美元的增量，你能提供一些關於客戶構成的見解嗎？您認為您最終擁有多少超過 10% 的客戶？

Pretty much 0. We've got some e-commerce channels that we support. So if you look at partners that we're supporting. So like think of that business goes direct to fleet customers through our own e-commerce system, which is to a long tail of end users or through other people's e-commerce channels to their long tail of end users. So this is the business that's about the tail. That's why it's about optimizing it. We do have some large kind of e-commerce partners who have just a website and their funnel of inventory. But when we look at true end-user demand, this is the tail and you're not going to see concentration at that level.

幾乎為 0。我們有一些我們支持的電子商務渠道。所以如果你看看我們支持的合作夥伴。因此，想一想該業務通過我們自己的電子商務系統直接面向車隊客戶，即最終用戶的長尾或通過其他人的電子商務渠道到達他們的最終用戶的長尾。所以這是關於尾巴的業務。這就是為什麼要優化它。我們確實有一些大型電子商務合作夥伴，他們只有一個網站和他們的庫存渠道。但是，當我們查看真正的最終用戶需求時，這就是尾巴，您不會看到該水平的集中度。

And then just one on the Aviation segment. What's your view of the trajectory of shop visits for general aviation and bizjet over the next 2 to 5 years? I know you're talking about sales growth here in the kind of the immediate term, but what does that longer-term cycle look like?

然後是航空領域的一個。您對未來 2 到 5 年通用航空和公務機的商店訪問軌蹟有何看法？我知道你在這裡談論的是短期內的銷售增長，但長期週期是什麼樣的？

Yes. So it's interesting because if you look back at the cycle, business in general aviation, I've been in the industry for 25 years, was a little bit more boom and bust in the '90s when I started in that market, and it was less of a robust and stable market. The market truly is really stabilized for a number of reasons. Number one, you have major players out there that are running operations with stable bases of customers. Number two, you have a market that is sold out on larger or mid-tier aircraft through 2024, 2025, 2026, depending on the OEM. So in the market, used aircraft is still, relatively speaking, at some of the lowest levels in history. So we look at that a couple together, and we look at it as a pretty stable market. Do I think the market is going to be double-digit growth? No. So I think it will be stable to low single-digit growth, absolutely.

是的。所以這很有趣，因為如果你回顧一下週期，通用航空業務，我已經在這個行業工作了 25 年，在 90 年代我開始進入那個市場時經歷了更多的繁榮和蕭條，而且它是更不是一個強勁和穩定的市場。由於多種原因，市場確實真正穩定下來了。第一，你有主要的參與者在穩定的客戶基礎上運營。第二，到 2024 年、2025 年、2026 年，大型或中型飛機的市場銷售一空，具體取決於 OEM。因此，在市場上，相對而言，二手飛機仍處於歷史最低水平。所以我們一起看這對夫婦，我們將其視為一個相當穩定的市場。我認為市場會實現兩位數增長嗎？不，所以我認為它絕對會穩定到低的個位數增長。

And then just one last one on the distribution side in aviation. What are you seeing as far as supply chain choke points or release at this point?

然後是航空分銷方面的最後一個。就供應鏈瓶頸或此時的釋放而言，您看到了什麼？

They're really mixed. It's interesting. It's really either one OEM or at one factory that has either labor issues or material issues or the like. So we're not seeing -- like I wouldn't say in our world, that we're not seeing a consistency in a trend. So we've seen more improvement in the last 6 months than -- so it's gotten better for us, not worse. The one thing I'd caveat always is that as the OEMs start to pick up new production, it's the same base of manufacturers that are building for both. And that's why sometimes we take a little bit stronger of an inventory position because we want to support our aftermarket customers. But I would say right now, there's not -- it's not materially impacting any of our revenue or any of our customer service.

他們真的很雜。這真有趣。實際上，要么是一家原始設備製造商，要么是一家工廠存在勞工問題或材料問題等。所以我們沒有看到——就像我在我們的世界裡不會說的那樣，我們沒有看到趨勢的一致性。所以我們在過去 6 個月裡看到了更多的改進 - 所以它對我們來說變得更好，而不是更糟。我一直要提醒的一件事是，隨著原始設備製造商開始生產新產品，為兩者建造的製造商基地是相同的。這就是為什麼有時我們會稍微加強庫存，因為我們想支持我們的售後市場客戶。但我現在要說的是，沒有 - 它不會對我們的任何收入或我們的任何客戶服務產生重大影響。

Ladies and gentlemen, we have reached the end of our question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn the call back over to John Cuomo for closing remarks. Please go ahead, sir.

女士們，先生們，我們的問答環節已經結束。我現在想將電話轉回給 John Cuomo 以作結束語。請繼續，先生。

Thanks, everybody, for joining our call today. We're very proud of our 2022 results, and some great records in both our Fleet and our Aviation segment and look forward to continuing to report on both strategic updates as well as strong financial performance in the year ahead. Have a great day.

謝謝大家今天加入我們的電話會議。我們對 2022 年的業績以及機隊和航空部門的一些出色記錄感到非常自豪，並期待在來年繼續報告戰略更新和強勁的財務業績。祝你有美好的一天。

Thank you, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, that then concludes today's conference. Thank you for joining us. You may now disconnect your lines.

謝謝你，先生。女士們，先生們，今天的會議到此結束。感謝您加入我們。您現在可以斷開線路。