Verisk Analytics Inc (VRSK) 2018 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Verisk Fourth Quarter 2018 Earnings Results Conference Call. This call is being recorded. At this time, for opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to Verisk's Head of Investor Relations, Stacey Brodbar. Ms. Brodbar, please go ahead.

大家好，歡迎參加 Verisk 2018 年第四季財報電話會議。本次通話正在錄音。此時此刻，我謹將電話轉交給 Verisk 的投資人關係主管 Stacey Brodbar，由她來致開幕詞和介紹。布羅德巴女士，請繼續。

Thank you, Grace, and good morning, everyone. We appreciate you joining us for a discussion of our fourth quarter and full year 2018 financial results. With me on the call this morning are Scott Stephenson, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer; Mark Anquillare, Chief Operating Officer; and Lee Shavel, Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝你，格蕾絲，大家早安。感謝您參加我們關於 2018 年第四季和全年財務表現的討論會。今天早上和我一起參加電話會議的有：董事長、總裁兼執行長 Scott Stephenson；營運長 Mark Anquillare；以及財務長 Lee Shavel。

Following comments by Scott, Mark and Lee, highlighting some key points about our financial performance, we will open up the call for your questions. The earnings release referenced on this call as well as the associated 10-K can be found in the Investors section of our website, verisk.com. The earnings release has also been attached to an 8-K that we have furnished to the SEC. A replay of this call will be available for 30 days on our website and by dial-in.

在 Scott、Mark 和 Lee 就我們的財務表現發表了一些重要評論之後，我們將開放提問環節。本次電話會議中提到的收益報告以及相關的 10-K 表格可以在我們網站 verisk.com 的投資者關係部分找到。獲利報告也已附在我們提交給美國證券交易委員會的 8-K 表格中。本次通話的錄音將在我們的網站上保留 30 天，也可透過電話撥入收聽。

Finally, as set forth in more detail in today's earnings release, I will remind everyone that today's call may include forward-looking statements about Verisk's future performance. Actual performance could differ materially from what is suggested by our comments today. That information about the factors that could affect future performance is contained in our recent SEC filings.

最後，正如今天發布的收益報告中更詳細闡述的那樣，我要提醒大家，今天的電話會議可能包含有關 Verisk 未來業績的前瞻性陳述。實際表現可能與我們今天所作的評論有重大差異。有關可能影響未來業績的因素的資訊已包含在我們最近提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中。

Now I'll turn the call over to Scott.

現在我把電話交給史考特。

Thank you, Stacey, and good morning, everyone. Apologies for my voice today.

謝謝你，史黛西，大家早安。今天我的嗓子不太好，請見諒。

As we turn the page on 2018, I want to give you my bottom line view of the year just passed. We did well and see opportunity to improve. The single most important reflection of our vitality is our rate of organic revenue growth. And normalizing for the effects of exceptional storm-related revenues and the significant contract signing and financial services in 2017, our organic constant-currency revenue growth was 7.2% ahead of our long-term financial target of 7%.

2018年即將過去，我想和大家分享我對剛剛過去的一年的整體看法。我們做得很好，但也看到了改進的空間。衡量我們活力的最重要指標就是我們的有機收入成長率。考慮到 2017 年與風暴相關的特殊收入以及重大合約簽署和金融服務的影響，我們的有機固定匯率收入增長了 7.2%，比我們 7% 的長期財務目標高出 7.2%。

Moreover, our growth was broadly-based across our Insurance vertical along with Wood Mackenzie in the Energy space and our core consortium data analytics in the Financial Services vertical. The heart of our position in the 3 verticals is sound and forms the basis for cross-selling these solutions in the future.

此外，我們的成長主要來自保險業務，以及能源領域的伍德麥肯錫公司和金融服務領域的核心聯盟資料分析業務。我們在三大垂直領域的核心地位穩固，為未來交叉銷售這些解決方案奠定了基礎。

Looking more deeply into the organic revenue outcomes across the company, I see 8 contributing factors: number one, very high rates of customer retention; two, growth in the number of products consumed by existing customers; three, the introduction and adoption of new innovative solutions; four, positive pricing due to enhanced value in many solutions; five, in those places where we have head-to-head competition, share gains in most categories, including CAD modeling, remote imagery and underwriting decision support; six, effective progress in nondomestic markets, especially the U.K.; seven, a high rate of capture of business with new entrants in the Insurance vertical, including the InsurTech companies; and eight, our position as a partner to our customers who continue to entrust Verisk with their data, enabling us to build new solutions in new categories.

深入分析公司整體的有機收入成長情況，我認為有八個主要因素：第一，極高的客戶留存率；第二，現有客戶使用的產品數量增長；第三，創新解決方案的推出和應用；第四，許多解決方案價值提升，定價策略積極；第五，在存在直接競爭的領域，我們在大多數類別中都取得了市場份額增長，包括CAD建模、遠端圖像和核保決策支援；第六，在海外市場，尤其是英國市場，取得了顯著進展；第七，我們成功地從保險業的新興企業（包括保險科技公司）中獲得了大量業務；第八，我們作為客戶的合作夥伴，客戶持續信任Verisk並委託我們管理他們的數據，這使我們能夠在新的類別中構建新的解決方案。

For example, in Insurance, we are working with our customers to repurpose some contributory policy data already used in our underwriting business to develop innovative claim solutions. One such solution will enable carriers to automate the subrogation process quickly and seamlessly. In Energy and Specialized Markets, Wood Mackenzie is leveraging the consortium model, developed by our insurance colleagues, and bringing it to the energy sector where we believe it is in a nascent stage.

例如，在保險領域，我們正在與客戶合作，重新利用我們承保業務中已經使用的一些保單數據，以開發創新的理賠解決方案。其中一項解決方案將使保險公司能夠快速且無縫地實現代位求償流程的自動化。在能源和專業市場領域，伍德麥肯茲正在利用我們保險業同事開發的聯盟模式，並將其引入我們認為尚處於起步階段的能源領域。

We are currently finalizing an agreement to create an energy data consortium in one of the key U.S. tight oil plays. And in Financial Services, we are working with our card issuer partners in Mexico to launch a fraud consortium to help combat the transaction-based fraud plaguing their system.

我們目前正在敲定一項協議，將在美國一個重要的緻密油產區建立一個能源數據聯盟。在金融服務領域，我們正在與墨西哥的發卡機構合作夥伴共同發起反詐欺聯盟，以幫助打擊困擾其係統的基於交易的詐欺行為。

An important underlying foundation to our growth is the agility of our technical infrastructure, which permits us to bring new solutions to market faster and with greater analytic content. On this front, I was pleased with the following in 2018. Our analytics community has grown substantially through our own program of cultivating data scientists along with industry hiring, and all of this supported by the naming of a new Chief Analytics Officer.

我們發展的重要基礎在於我們技術基礎設施的敏捷性，這使我們能夠更快地將新解決方案推向市場，並提供更豐富的分析內容。在這方面，我對2018年的以下幾點感到滿意。透過我們自己的資料科學家培養計畫以及產業招聘，我們的分析社群已經大幅發展壯大，而這一切都得益於新任首席分析官的任命。

We saw a doubling of our consumption of public cloud capacity in 2018. We have made progress in advancing our data methods to support widespread tokenization, which contributes to our internal security and presents opportunities to access new datasets from equally security-minded data sources.

2018 年，我們對公有雲容量的消耗量翻了一番。我們在推進資料方法以支援廣泛標記化方面取得了進展，這有助於我們的內部安全，並為從同樣注重安全的資料來源獲取新資料集提供了機會。

On the innovation front, we introduced a wide variety of unique and customer-driven solutions across our verticals. In Insurance, we launched programs to address new risk exposure, including cyber and flood. We also successfully introduced a variety of disruptive and award-winning innovations to the market, which Mark will talk to you about in more detail.

在創新方面，我們在各個垂直領域推出了各種獨特且以客戶為中心的解決方案。在保險領域，我們啟動了多項計劃來應對新的風險敞口，包括網路安全和洪水風險。我們也成功地向市場推出了一系列顛覆性創新和屢獲殊榮的創新產品，馬克將更詳細地向您介紹這些產品。

In the Energy and Specialized Markets segment, we launched Lens, a cloud-based data and analytics platform, which allows customers to access, analyze and model data in every major commodity in every market. And in our Financial Services sector, we delivered next-generation merchant analytics to retailers.

在能源和專業市場領域，我們推出了基於雲端的數據和分析平台 Lens，該平台允許客戶存取、分析和建模每個市場中每種主要商品的數據。在金融服務領域，我們為零售商提供了新一代的商家分析服務。

As a complement to our innovation agenda, we are very focused on driving operational efficiency. As we shared with you in detail at our Investor Day in December, we worked diligently to advance our operational excellence initiative through Lean Six Sigma. With 3,100 employees trained and 85 active projects underway, and more soon to be launched, Verisk is driving a culture of continuous improvement by measurably improving processes and meeting the critical customer needs of quality and speed.

作為創新議程的補充，我們非常注重提高營運效率。正如我們在 12 月的投資者日上與您詳細分享的那樣，我們努力透過精益六西格瑪來推進我們的卓越營運計劃。Verisk 擁有 3100 名受過培訓的員工，85 個正在進行的項目，並且即將推出更多項目，透過可衡量地改進流程並滿足客戶對品質和速度的關鍵需求，推動持續改進的文化。

Another leading indicator for me comes from the many conversations I have with the CEOs of our leading customers. Are they thinking of Verisk as a partner or as a vendor? A consistent message across 2018 is that we are engaging our customers around some of their highest priority initiatives for the future and they see Verisk as a distinctive and trusted partner in doing so. The result of many of my CEO visits is a request that their teams be placed in closer proximity to our innovation pipeline.

對我來說，另一個重要的參考指標來自我與我們主要客戶的執行長們進行的多次對話。他們是把 Verisk 看作合作夥伴還是供應商？2018 年我們始終傳遞的訊息是，我們正在與客戶就他們未來一些最重要的計劃進行溝通，而他們也把 Verisk 視為實現這些計劃的獨特且值得信賴的合作夥伴。我多次拜訪執行長的結果是，他們都希望將他們的團隊安排在離我們的創新管道更近的地方。

Our last comment about the year just passed regards the planning cycle we went through at the end of the year. I have never seen a higher volume of fresh ideas for new solutions and approaches for engaging our customers. We have a wonderful problem of needing to choose among a wide variety of opportunities.

我們對剛剛過去的一年的最後評論是關於我們在年底經歷的規劃週期。我從未見過如此之多的關於如何與客戶互動的新解決方案和新方法的新穎想法。我們面臨著一個幸福的煩惱：需要在眾多機會中做出選擇。

Finally, I'm pleased to announce, as you've seen, that our Board of Directors has approved the initiation of a cash dividend to shareholders. This represents an important milestone in what is the 10th year of our history as a public company and demonstrates the confidence we have in our ability to drive sustainable, profitable growth, generate significant free cash flow and create long-term shareholder value through careful capital management.

最後，我很高興地宣布，正如你們所看到的，我們的董事會已經批准向股東派發現金股息。這標誌著我們作為一家上市公司成立 10 週年之際，迎來了一個重要的里程碑，也表明了我們對自身能力的信心，即透過謹慎的資本管理，推動可持續的盈利增長，產生可觀的自由現金流，並為股東創造長期價值。

I'll now turn the call over to Mark to comment specifically on our Insurance business.

現在我將把電話交給馬克，讓他具體談談我們的保險業務。

Thank you, Scott. I'm pleased to share with you that 2018 was a strong year in our Insurance businesses, one marked by solid growth across most of our lines of business, fueled by leading innovation and enhanced customer engagement.

謝謝你，斯科特。我很高興地告訴大家，2018 年是我們的保險業務表現強勁的一年，在領先的創新和增強的客戶互動的推動下，我們的大多數業務線都實現了穩健增長。

Excluding the impact of approximately $16 million of storm-related revenue in 2017, Insurance revenue on an organic constant-currency basis grew 8.3% in 2018. Our customer retention rates remain very high, and the overall portfolio of new and truly innovative solutions is more robust than ever.

剔除 2017 年約 1,600 萬美元與風暴相關的收入的影響，2018 年保險收入按有機固定匯率計算增長了 8.3%。我們的客戶留存率仍然非常高，而且全新的、真正具有創新性的解決方案組合比以往任何時候都更強大。

As Scott mentioned earlier, we have received numerous Innovation of the Year awards for our creative solutions, including, one, LightSpeed Auto, our innovative, data-forward workflow solution that delivers a faster and more efficient experience for underwriting and buying insurance. A fully bindable online auto quote is delivered after providing only 3 pieces of key data. We've extended the LightSpeed technology and platform to address the property and small commercial insurance segments. Several customers have signed contracts and our pipeline of interest for LightSpeed is growing.

正如 Scott 之前提到的，我們憑藉創新解決方案獲得了許多年度創新獎，其中包括 LightSpeed Auto，這是我們創新的、以數據為導向的工作流程解決方案，可為保險承保和購買提供更快、更有效率的體驗。只需提供 3 項關鍵數據，即可獲得完全可綁定的線上汽車報價。我們已將 LightSpeed 技術和平台擴展到財產保險和小型商業保險領域。已有數家客戶簽署了合同，而且對 LightSpeed 感興趣的潛在客戶也在不斷增加。

Two, Verisk Data Exchange, our IoT data consortium that collects connected car data from our GM, Honda and Hyundai partnerships on more than 4.7 million vehicles, covering more than 80 billion miles. Insurance applications range from driving behavioral scores for underwriting to instant notice-of-loss solutions for claims.

第二，Verisk 資料交換，我們的物聯網資料聯盟，從我們與通用汽車、本田和現代汽車的合作關係中收集超過 470 萬輛汽車的連網汽車數據，覆蓋超過 800 億英里。保險應用範圍很廣，從用於承保的駕駛行為評分到用於索賠的即時損失通知解決方案。

And three, EPIX, our energy and power intelligence exchange, our Insurance platform that helps energy insurance professionals research, assess and underwrite complex risks. This solution addresses a critical profitable growth need by combining Verisk's risk scoring and benchmarking insurance expertise with WoodMac's unique energy data.

第三，EPIX，我們的能源和電力情報交流平台，我們的保險平台，可協助能源保險專業人士研究、評估和承保複雜的風險。該解決方案結合了 Verisk 的風險評分和保險基準專業知識與 WoodMac 獨特的能源數據，滿足了關鍵的獲利成長需求。

A steady stream of first-to-market innovation is one of the 4 distinctives of Verisk, and it's also a key driver of our growth. It is also an important force of change within the insurance industry. On that front, InsurTech is gathering lots of mind share and meaningful capital investment, which we think creates future growth opportunities for Verisk.

持續不斷推出市場領先的創新產品是 Verisk 的四大特色之一，也是我們成長的關鍵驅動力。它也是保險業變革的重要力量。在這方面，保險科技正在獲得廣泛的關注和大量的資本投資，我們認為這將為 Verisk 創造未來的成長機會。

In my view, InsurTech has grown in 2 distinct areas. One, startup insurers and managing general agents, or MGAs, who are underwriting and distributing insurance. This type of InsurTech startups are likely to need data analytics to effectively price and sell insurance in the competitive market. We believe these startups have the potential to become Verisk customers. And in fact, in 2018, we engaged with 67 of these startups on 182 opportunities and had 79 product wins.

在我看來，保險科技的發展主要體現在兩個方面。第一類是新創保險公司和管理總代理商（MGA），他們負責承保和分銷保險。這類保險科技新創公司可能需要數據分析才能在競爭激烈的市場中有效地進行保險定價和銷售。我們相信這些新創公司有潛力成為 Verisk 的客戶。事實上，在 2018 年，我們與其中 67 家新創公司就 182 個合作機會進行了接洽，並成功拿下 79 個產品。

Second, other InsurTech startups include service providers who are trying to improve the insurance process. These startups may be competitors of ours, but many recognize the value of our services and continue to solicit our data analytics, distribution channel or even possible investment.

其次，其他保險科技新創公司包括一些試圖改善保險流程的服務提供者。這些新創公司可能是我們的競爭對手，但許多公司都認可我們服務的價值，並不斷尋求我們的數據分析、分銷管道，甚至可能的投資。

The threat from InsurTech players has ignited investment by more traditional insurers who are focused on analytics, digital engagement and automation to compete with InsurTechs and to deliver a better customer experience for their policyholders.

保險科技公司的威脅激發了更多傳統保險公司的投資，這些公司專注於分析、數位互動和自動化，以與保險科技公司競爭，並為他們的保單持有人提供更好的客戶體驗。

This momentum and insurer investment have led to increased opportunities for us. A common description of InsurTech is the use of technology innovations designed to improve the insurance process by squeezing out savings and driving efficiency from the current insurance industry model. With this definition in mind, I view Verisk as the most comprehensive and trusted InsurTech provider.

這種發展勢頭和保險公司的投資為我們帶來了更多機會。保險科技的常見描述是：利用技術創新來改善保險流程，透過從目前的保險業模式中擠出節省成本和提高效率來實現這一目標。基於此定義，我認為 Verisk 是最全面、最值得信賴的保險科技提供者。

As we've communicated to you over the years, international expansion is an important part of our long-term growth strategy, and in 2018, it was a solid contributor to growth. The United Kingdom provides a playbook for success in future international expansion. The global insurance market, specialty -- especially specialty lines, has hubs [around the] world, with London as a key gateway to global markets and an accelerating step on our journey to extend beyond the United States.

多年來，我們一直向大家強調，國際擴張是我們長期成長策略的重要組成部分，並且在 2018 年，它為成長做出了巨大貢獻。英國為未來國際擴張的成功提供了範例。全球保險市場，特別是專業保險（尤其是專業險種），在世界各地都有中心，倫敦是通往全球市場的關鍵門戶，也是我們向美國以外地區擴張的加速步伐。

This vision is becoming a reality in the U.K. Our strategy is to provide a comprehensive suite of solutions across the entire insurance value chain, driving data and automation from broker to underwriter to reinsurer, and from quote to claim settlement.

這個願景正在英國成為現實。我們的策略是提供一套涵蓋整個保險價值鏈的綜合解決方案，推動從經紀人到承保人再到再保險公司，從報價到理賠結算的數據和自動化。

During the quarter, we acquired Rulebook, an industry-leading provider of business intelligence and software solutions for the London insurance market. Rulebook, in combination with Sequel, furthers our goal of providing leading solutions to the global insurance market, including a comprehensive chain of solutions to specialty insurers for mitigating risk and optimizing total cost of operations. Our customers are recognizing the advantages of these integrated solutions, resulting in new contracts and increased sales opportunities.

本季度，我們收購了 Rulebook，該公司是倫敦保險市場領先的商業智慧和軟體解決方案提供商。Rulebook 與 Sequel 結合，進一步推進了我們為全球保險市場提供領先解決方案的目標，包括為專業保險公司提供全面的解決方案鏈，以降低風險並優化總營運成本。我們的客戶認識到這些整合解決方案的優勢，從而帶來了新的合約和更多的銷售機會。

With a successful 2018 behind us, we're focused on 2019 and are actively meeting with employees and customers. To kick-start each year, we hold a series of town hall meetings at our major offices to share Verisk Insurance Solutions' strategic direction.

2018 年取得了成功，我們專注於 2019 年，並積極與員工和客戶會面。每年年初，我們都會在我們主要辦事處舉行一系列全體員工大會，分享 Verisk 保險解決方案的策略方向。

We also held our annual insurance sales meeting in Nashville earlier this month. The first evening of the sales meeting was an awards ceremony and a celebration of a strong 2018. The meeting then serves as a forum for leadership to communicate our goals for 2019 and then for the sales teams to learn about our new innovative solutions. Our 200-person sales team experienced demos from our product experts and we're briefed in our innovation lab under us cutting-edge AI and automation technologies.

本月初，我們還在納許維爾舉行了年度保險銷售會議。銷售會議的第一晚是頒獎典禮，慶祝 2018 年的驕人成績。會議隨後成為領導層溝通 2019 年目標的平台，以及銷售團隊了解我們新的創新解決方案的平台。我們200人的銷售團隊體驗了產品專家的演示，並在我們創新實驗室中聽取了關於尖端人工智慧和自動化技術的簡報。

Several customers joined us and emphasized the importance of our products and thought leadership to their businesses as well as suggested enhancements to our solutions. The teams left our town hall and sales meetings with a sense of accomplishment, energy and momentum from 2018 and motivated for 2019.

幾位客戶與我們一起強調了我們的產品和思想領導對他們業務的重要性，並提出了改進我們解決方案的建議。各團隊帶著2018年的成就感、活力和動力離開了我們的市政廳會議和銷售會議，並為2019年充滿了動力。

With that, let me turn the call over to Lee to cover our financial results.

接下來，我將把電話交給李，讓他來介紹我們的財務表現。

Thanks, Mark. First, I'd like to bring to everyone's attention that we've posted a quarterly earnings presentation that's available on our website. The presentation provides background, data trends and analysis to support our conversation today.

謝謝你，馬克。首先，我想提醒大家，我們已經在網站上發布了季度財報。本次簡報提供了背景資訊、數據趨勢和分析，以支持我們今天的討論。

Moving to the financial results for the quarter. On a consolidated and GAAP basis, revenue grew 7.7% to $614 million. As a result of an income tax benefit of $89 million recorded in the fourth quarter of 2017 related to tax reform, net income decreased 28.5% to $146 million for the quarter. Diluted GAAP earnings per share were $0.87 for the fourth quarter 2018, a decrease of 28.7% compared with the same period in 2017. Equalizing the fourth quarter 2017 effective tax rate to that of the fourth quarter of 2018, adjusted net income and diluted adjusted EPS would have increased 5.6% and 6.1%, respectively.

接下來來看看本季的財務業績。以合併及GAAP準則計算，營收成長7.7%，達6.14億美元。由於 2017 年第四季因稅收改革而獲得 8,900 萬美元的所得稅優惠，該季度淨收入下降 28.5% 至 1.46 億美元。2018 年第四季稀釋後 GAAP 每股收益為 0.87 美元，與 2017 年同期相比下降了 28.7%。如果將 2017 年第四季的實際稅率與 2018 年第四季的實際稅率保持一致，則調整後的淨收入和稀釋後的調整後每股盈餘將分別成長 5.6% 和 6.1%。

Let's focus our quarterly discussion on our normalized organic constant-currency results for all year-over-year growth rates and to eliminate the impact of currency fluctuations, recent acquisitions for which we don't have full year-over-year comparisons, and nonrecurring items, including the impact of the storm-related revenues recorded in the fourth quarter of 2017.

讓我們將季度討論的重點放在所有同比增長率的正常化有機增長（按固定匯率計算）結果上，以消除匯率波動、近期收購（我們沒有完整的同比比較數據）以及非經常性項目（包括 2017 年第四季度記錄的與風暴相關的收入的影響）的影響。

On a normalized organic constant-currency basis, Verisk delivered revenue growth of 6.9% and adjusted EBITDA growth of 7.3% in the fourth quarter of 2018, reflecting strong organic growth across the Insurance and Energy and Specialized Markets segments, offset by weakness in Financial Services.

以正常化有機固定匯率計算，Verisk 在 2018 年第四季度實現了 6.9% 的收入增長和 7.3% 的調整後 EBITDA 增長，這反映了保險和能源以及專業市場部門的強勁有機增長，但被金融服務部門的疲軟所抵消。

Adjusted EBITDA margin for the quarter of 47.8% was up from 47.6% on a normalized basis in the prior year period. Please bear in mind that our reported fourth quarter 2017 margin, not adjusted for the storms, includes the benefit of 100% margin on the $8 million in storm-related revenue.

本季調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 47.8%，高於去年同期的 47.6%（以正常基準計算）。請注意，我們報告的 2017 年第四季利潤率（未根據風暴進行調整）包含了 800 萬美元風暴相關收入的 100% 利潤率收益。

For the full year of 2018, normalized for both storm-related and nonrecurring implementation revenues, we achieved 7.2% organic constant-currency revenue growth and 7.7% organic constant-currency adjusted EBITDA growth. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 48.5% in 2018, up from 48.3% in 2017. We achieved these results while also maintaining substantial investment in our business and sustaining ongoing recovery in our Energy and Specialized Markets and Financial Services sectors.

2018 年全年，剔除與風暴相關的收入和非經常性實施收入的影響後，我們實現了 7.2% 的有機固定匯率收入增長和 7.7% 的有機固定匯率調整 EBITDA 增長。2018 年調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 48.5%，高於 2017 年的 48.3%。我們在取得這些成果的同時，也對我們的業務進行了大量投資，並維持了能源、專業市場和金融服務領域的持續復甦。

Let's now turn to our segment results on a normalized organic constant-currency basis. As you can see in the press release, Insurance segment revenue grew 8.5% and adjusted EBITDA increased 9.9%, reflecting an adjusted EBITDA margin of 53.5%, up from 52.8% in the prior year and inclusive of substantial investments in remote imagery and telematics.

現在讓我們來看看以固定匯率計算的標準化有機成長分部業績。如新聞稿中所見，保險業務收入成長了 8.5%，調整後 EBITDA 成長了 9.9%，調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 53.5%，高於上年的 52.8%，其中包括對遠端影像和遠端資訊處理技術的大量投資。

Within our Underwriting & rating business, we saw solid performance with healthy growth in commercial lines, personal lines and catastrophe modeling services. Within claims, the strong growth was driven by solid performance across most of our claims businesses, partially offset by continued softness in our workers' compensation claim resolution services.

在我們的核保和評級業務中，商業險、個人險和災害建模服務均取得了穩健的業績和健康的成長。在理賠業務方面，強勁成長主要得益於我們大多數理賠業務的穩健表現，但部分被工傷賠償理賠解決服務的持續疲軟所抵消。

Energy and Specialized Markets delivered revenue growth of 5.1% for the quarter as the energy industry continues to recover. We experienced growth in both our core research and consulting solutions as well as strong contribution from our breakout areas, including power and renewables, chemicals and subsurface. We also had positive contributions from environmental health and safety, and weather and climate analytics revenues.

隨著能源產業的持續復甦，能源和專業市場業務本季營收成長了 5.1%。我們在核心研究和諮詢解決方案方面都取得了成長，同時，我們在電力和再生能源、化學和地下等領域的突破性發展也做出了強勁貢獻。環境健康與安全以及天氣和氣候分析收入也為我們做出了積極貢獻。

Adjusted EBITDA increased 4.6%. Adjusted EBITDA margin of 31.3% was slightly down from the prior year period of 31.4% as we continue to invest in WoodMac 2.0, or Lens as it is branded in the market place, and our chemicals, subsurface and power and renewables breakouts. These areas represent opportunities to leverage Wood Mackenzie's data and industry expertise more broadly and to deliver and develop more swiftly and efficiently.

調整後 EBITDA 成長 4.6%。經過調整的 EBITDA 利潤率為 31.3%，略低於去年同期的 31.4%，因為我們繼續投資 WoodMac 2.0（或按其在市場上的品牌名稱 Lens）以及我們的化學、地下、電力和再生能源業務。這些領域代表著更廣泛地利用伍德麥肯茲的數據和行業專業知識，以及更快、更有效率地交付和開發的機會。

Financial Services revenue declined 2.2% in the quarter and adjusted EBITDA decreased by 12.8%. Solid growth in portfolio management solutions and spend-informed analytics were offset by headwinds from tough comparisons with prior year implementation revenues as well as some timing differences.

本季金融服務收入下降了 2.2%，調整後 EBITDA 下降了 12.8%。投資組合管理解決方案和支出資訊分析的穩健成長被與上一年實施收入的艱難比較以及一些時間差異帶來的不利影響所抵消。

As we articulated previously, we continue to make progress on our initiative to reduce the variability of revenues in this segment, particularly around project-based items. As we work through this process, we will continue to see quarterly fluctuations on revenue and growth higher than our other businesses. That said, we are encouraged by the long-term growth potential in our Financial Services segment as we set the business on a stronger foundation for future growth.

正如我們之前所闡述的那樣，我們繼續推進降低該領域收入波動性的舉措，尤其是在專案型專案方面。在這個過程中，我們將繼續看到季度收入波動，並且成長速度高於我們其他業務。儘管如此，我們對金融服務業務的長期成長潛力感到鼓舞，因為我們正在為未來的成長奠定更堅實的基礎。

Reported interest expense was $33 million in the quarter, up 1.6% from the prior year quarter due to the funding of acquisitions over the last 12 months and our share repurchase program. Total reported debt was $2.7 billion at December 31, 2018, down from $3 billion at December 31, 2017. Our leverage at the end of the quarter was 2.3x.

本季度報告的利息支出為 3,300 萬美元，比上年同期增長 1.6%，原因是過去 12 個月的收購資金和我們的股票回購計劃。截至 2018 年 12 月 31 日，公司報告的總債務為 27 億美元，低於 2017 年 12 月 31 日的 30 億美元。本季末我們的槓桿率為 2.3 倍。

We are very pleased to share that on January 30, Standard & Poor's upgraded Verisk's credit rating to BBB flat with a stable outlook from BBB- with a stable outlook and assigned a short-term rating of A2.

我們非常高興地宣布，1月30日，標準普爾將Verisk的信用評級從BBB-（展望穩定）上調至BBB（展望穩定），並授予其A2的短期評級。

Our reported effective tax rate was 18.6% for the quarter. This compares to the negative 14.1% we experienced in the prior year quarter as we recorded a benefit resulting from the revaluation of our net deferred tax liabilities in connection with tax reform.

本季度報告的實際稅率為 18.6%。相較之下，上一季我們經歷了負 14.1% 的業績下滑，原因是由於稅制改革導致淨遞延所得稅負債重估，我們獲得了收益。

For the full year, our effective tax rate was 16.8%, which was lower than our targeted range due to significant exercises of soon-to-expire employee stock options related to our 2009 IPO that produced a favorable tax impact.

全年實際稅率為 16.8%，低於我們的目標範圍，這是因為與 2009 年 IPO 相關的即將到期的員工股票選擇權被大量行使，產生了有利的稅收影響。

For 2019, we expect our tax rate to be between 19% and 21%. Though there will be likely some quarterly variability related to the impact of employee stock option exercises, which depends in part on the Verisk stock price and employee personnel decisions.

我們預計 2019 年的稅率將在 19% 到 21% 之間。儘管員工股票選擇權行使的影響可能會出現一些季度波動，這部分取決於 Verisk 的股價和員工人事決策。

Adjusted net income was $174 million and diluted adjusted EPS was $1.04 for the fourth quarter, down 21.8% from the prior year. This decrease reflects the impact of a prior year $89 million tax benefit related to the 2017 tax reform.

第四季調整後淨收入為 1.74 億美元，稀釋後調整每股收益為 1.04 美元，比去年同期下降 21.8%。這一減少反映了去年與 2017 年稅制改革相關的 8,900 萬美元稅收優惠的影響。

Equalizing the fourth quarter 2017 effective tax rate to that of the fourth quarter of 2018, adjusted net income and diluted adjusted EPS would have increased 5.6% and 6.1%, respectively. Further normalizing for the elevated storm revenue in the quarter, adjusted net income and diluted adjusted EPS would have increased to 10% and 10.6%, respectively, consistent with our long-term objective for double-digit EPS growth.

如果將 2017 年第四季的實際稅率與 2018 年第四季的實際稅率保持一致，則調整後的淨收入和稀釋後的調整後每股盈餘將分別成長 5.6% 和 6.1%。如果進一步將本季風暴帶來的收入增加納入正常水平，調整後的淨收入和稀釋調整後的每股收益將分別增長至 10% 和 10.6%，這與我們實現兩位數每股收益增長的長期目標相符。

Net cash provided by operating activities was $173 million for the quarter, up 14.5% from the prior year period. Capital expenditures were $77 million for the quarter, up 9.8% from the prior year period, reflecting continued investments in future growth opportunities including remote imagery, telematics and Lens, and software development to support and improve new and existing products across the organization.

本季經營活動產生的淨現金流為 1.73 億美元，比上年同期成長 14.5%。本季資本支出為 7,700 萬美元，比去年同期成長 9.8%，反映出對未來成長機會的持續投資，包括遠端影像、遠端資訊處理和 Lens，以及支援和改進整個組織內新產品和現有產品的軟體開發。

Total capital expenditures for 2018 were $231 million and represented 9.6% of total revenue. As we have said previously, we expect capital expenditures to decline as a percentage of revenues in 2018 -- I'm sorry, 2019 and over the long term, and to be within a range of $220 million to $240 million in 2019.

2018 年的總資本支出為 2.31 億美元，佔總收入的 9.6%。正如我們之前所說，我們預計 2018 年（抱歉，是 2019 年）及以後資本支出佔收入的比例將會下降，2019 年的資本支出將達到 2.2 億美元至 2.4 億美元之間。

As that translates to depreciation and amortization, we expect fixed asset depreciation and amortization to be within a range of $175 million to $185 million in comparison to the $165 million for 2018. And we expect intangible amortization to be approximately $135 million in 2019 in comparison to $131 million in 2018. Both depreciation and amortization elements are subject to FX variability and future M&A activity.

就折舊和攤銷而言，我們預計固定資產折舊和攤銷將在 1.75 億美元至 1.85 億美元之間，而 2018 年為 1.65 億美元。我們預計 2019 年無形資產攤銷額約為 1.35 億美元，而 2018 年為 1.31 億美元。折舊和攤銷均受匯率波動和未來併購活動的影響。

Free cash flow was $97 million for the quarter, an increase of 18.6% from the prior year period.

本季自由現金流為 9,700 萬美元，較上年同期成長 18.6%。

This quarter, we returned $156 million in capital to shareholders through the repurchase of approximately 1.3 million shares at a weighted average price of $119.55. At December 31, 2018, we had $428 million remaining under our share repurchase authorization. In addition, we initiated a new $75 million accelerated share repurchase to be executed in the first quarter of 2019.

本季度，我們透過以每股 119.55 美元的加權平均價格回購約 130 萬股股票，向股東返還了 1.56 億美元的資本。截至 2018 年 12 月 31 日，我們的股票回購授權額度還剩 4.28 億美元。此外，我們啟動了一項新的 7,500 萬美元加速股票回購計劃，將於 2019 年第一季執行。

Of course, the big news on the capital front was the initiation of a cash dividend of $0.25 per share this quarter. We are very pleased to reach this milestone in our 10th year as a public company and to deliver another source of value to our investors.

當然，資本方面最大的新聞是本季開始派發每股 0.25 美元的現金股利。我們非常高興在公司上市 10 週年之際達到這一里程碑，並為我們的投資者帶來另一個價值來源。

This dividend underscores the stability of our business, profitability and cash flow, as well as a diversification of our capital return discipline, balancing share repurchases and dividends. We further expect that the dividend will open new groups of potential shareholders to Verisk.

此次分紅凸顯了我們業務的穩定性、獲利能力和現金流，以及我們資本回報策略的多元化，實現了股票回購和分紅之間的平衡。我們也預計，此次分紅將為 Verisk 開拓新的潛在股東群。

It's important to note that the dividend initiation does not reflect any diminution in our growth prospects or the opportunities to invest our capital. We will continue to have sufficient capital to support our long-term growth objectives, which remain unchanged.

值得注意的是，開始派發股息並不反映出我們的成長前景或投資資本的機會有任何減少。我們將繼續擁有充足的資金來支持我們的長期成長目標，這些目標保持不變。

We remain excited about the opportunities to invest in our business and remain focused on long-term profitable growth and solid returns on capital. We remain confident that we have the financial strength and capital structure to support investment for the long term.

我們仍然對投資我們業務的機會感到興奮，並將繼續專注於長期獲利成長和穩健的資本回報。我們仍然相信，我們擁有足夠的財務實力和資本結構來支持長期投資。

We continue to appreciate all the support and interest in Verisk. (Operator Instructions) With that, I'll ask the operator to open the line for questions.

我們衷心感謝大家對 Verisk 的支持與關注。（操作員指示）接下來，我將請操作員開通提問專線。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Toni Kaplan of Morgan Stanley.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自摩根士丹利的東尼卡普蘭。

Scott, you mentioned that you've been meeting with the CEOs of your customers. Could you just call out what seems, maybe, on their minds that might be different from last year? Or just give us a sense of the most important priorities that they're focused on.

史考特，你提到你一直在與客戶的執行長們會面。您能否指出他們可能在想些什麼，這些想法或許與去年不同？或至少讓我們了解他們目前最關注的優先事項。

Yes. Thanks, Toni. Two things immediately come to mind. One is, I would say, almost every insurance company CEO believes and expects that they can find ways to make their company grow faster than their competitors, faster than the industry. I think that's really significant because it means that what they are leaning into is improved methodologies. They're not just trying to sort of hunker down and play a cost game, they are looking to grow their businesses and they realize that the world around them really has changed and continues to change because of technology. So I would say that that's really the first and the most important thing that's going on.

是的。謝謝你，托尼。我立刻想到了兩件事。我認為，幾乎每位保險公司執行長都相信並期望他們能夠找到方法，使公司的發展速度超過競爭對手，超過整個產業。我認為這意義重大，因為這意味著他們正在致力於改進方法。他們並非只是想固守現狀、控製成本，而是希望發展壯大自己的業務，他們意識到，由於科技的發展，周遭的世界已經發生了翻天覆地的變化，而且還在不斷變化。所以我覺得這才是目前最重要、也是最迫切的事。

I would say the second thing that is also, pretty obviously, true. I would say, especially for the mid and larger companies, is they are really persuaded of the importance of accessing partnerships and supply from outside of their own companies. In other words, they realize that there are ways that their businesses can be benefited by tying in with others. And so I see a lot more partnering. I see a lot more venture investing as they try to get closer to technology. And I just see a lot more outreach to a company like ourselves that is recognized as being sort of distinctively able to help across multiple fronts. So these are very constructive meetings. They are partnership meetings.

我想說第二點，這一點也很明顯是正確的。我認為，特別是對於中型和大型公司而言，他們確實認識到從公司外部獲得合作夥伴關係和供應的重要性。換句話說，他們意識到，透過與其他企業合作，他們的企業可以從中受益。因此，我看到更多的合作模式。隨著他們試圖更接近科技領域，我看到越來越多的風險投資。我看到越來越多的人開始關注像我們這樣在多個方面都具有獨特優勢的公司。所以這些會議都非常有建設性。這些是合作會議。

Perfect. And then for my follow-up. I wanted to ask about margins. So in Insurance, I think we've seen investment impacting margins, same with first quarter in Energy last year. I guess, should we view 2019 as maybe a little bit -- a continuation of investing but maybe a little bit less so than '18? Or how should we directionally sort of think about it? And then outside of scale, are there any margin initiatives across the business, like efficiencies, that you're looking to drive this year?

完美的。接下來是我的後續問題。我想問一下利潤率的問題。所以，我認為保險業已經出現投資影響利潤率的情況，去年能源業第一季的情況也是如此。我想，我們是否應該將 2019 年視為投資的延續，但可能比 2018 年的投資力道稍小？或者我們應該如何從方向上思考這個問題？除了擴大規模之外，今年您是否希望在業務範圍內推進任何利潤率提升舉措，例如提高效率？

Sure, thanks, Toni. This is Lee. So I think, it's -- I would start off by saying certainly all of our business, we think, have superb operational -- operating leverage. And so as you know, across organization, our expectation is that each of the businesses will demonstrate improvement in margin. I think it's a fair observation that, in 2018, there was a high level of investment in a variety of initiatives, Geomni, Lens, IoT and telematics, where we chose to make those investments and that those, obviously, had a negative impact on margin. But notwithstanding that, I want to reiterate, as I mentioned in my comments, that both for the fourth quarter and for the year as a whole, when you normalize for the storm activity, we had margin expansion on the year-over-year periods. And so from our perspective, recognizing that, that storm revenue and the implementation revenue for TSYS was 100% margin. And so that certainly skewed that year-over-year comparison. We believe that we delivered margin expansion as well as substantial investment in the businesses for that period.

好的，謝謝你，托尼。這是李。所以我認為，首先我要說的是，我們所有的業務都擁有卓越的營運槓桿。如您所知，我們期望整個公司旗下的每個業務部門都能在利潤率方面有所提高。我認為，2018 年我們在各種專案上投入了大量資金，包括 Geomni、Lens、物聯網和遠端資訊處理，我們選擇在這些領域進行投資，而這些投資顯然對利潤率產生了負面影響，這是一個合理的觀察。儘管如此，我想重申一下，正如我在評論中提到的，無論是第四季度還是全年，如果將風暴活動正常化，我們的利潤率都比去年同期有所提高。因此，從我們的角度來看，認識到這一點，TSYS 的風暴收入和實施收入的利潤率為 100%。因此，這無疑會影響到同比數據的比較結果。我們相信，在此期間，我們實現了利潤率的成長，並對業務進行了大量投資。

In 2019, we won't have that storm comparison and, as Scott indicated, we still see very attractive opportunities to invest. But I think it's fair to say that, probably in 2018, from a scale standpoint, particularly around Geomni, it was a higher level. Consistent with our CapEx guidance, that was an acceleration, we expect to see that absolute level of investment decline as a percentage of revenue. So we feel good about the opportunity to strive towards our goal of margin expansion.

2019 年，我們不會再遇到類似的風暴，正如 Scott 所指出的，我們仍然看到了非常有吸引力的投資機會。但我認為可以公平地說，從規模的角度來看，尤其是在 Geomni 周圍，2018 年的水平更高。與我們的資本支出指引一致，雖然這是一個加速成長的趨勢，但我們預期投資的絕對水準佔收入的百分比將會下降。因此，我們對有機會努力實現利潤率擴張的目標感到欣慰。

Our second question comes from the line of Hamzah Mazari from Macquarie Capital.

我們的第二個問題來自麥格理資本的 Hamzah Mazari。

Just on the Financial Services segment. Maybe you could just touch on how you plan to reduce variability of revenues in that vertical, and maybe just timing of that initiative.

僅就金融服務領域而言。或許您可以簡單談談您計劃如何降低該垂直領域收入的波動性，以及這項舉措的實施時間。

Sure. Hamzah, this is Lee. Thanks for that question. So the process is essentially in recognizing in project-related revenues. I think the tendency in the past had been to recognize more of that revenue upfront. I think as we have the flexibility in structuring those relationships as new business comes on, we are -- and this is not perspective, this is already occurring, we are structuring the relationship so that, that revenue is realized over time so that we don't have these large chunks of revenue that create that variability. So that is part of the objective. That's a structural initiative as we work with clients. But also, I think fundamentally, as we think about developing the growth of the business, our focus is on building a sustainable growth component off of the 4 constituent businesses that we've described before, so that it is more incremental growth across that base. I think both of those will contribute to a more stable, less-variable revenue and profitability over time.

當然。哈姆扎，這位是李。謝謝你的提問。因此，該過程本質上是在確認項目相關收入。我認為過去的趨勢是提前確認更多的收入。我認為，隨著新業務的到來，我們可以靈活地建立這些關係，而且——這不是設想，而是已經發生的事情——我們正在建立這種關係，以便隨著時間的推移實現收入，這樣我們就不會有造成這種波動的大筆收入。所以，這也是目標的一部分。這是我們與客戶合作時採取的結構性措施。但我認為，從根本上講，當我們考慮如何發展業務時，我們的重點是在我們之前描述的 4 個組成業務的基礎上建立可持續的成長結構，從而實現在此基礎上的漸進式成長。我認為這兩點都將有助於隨著時間的推移，實現更穩定、波動更小的收入和盈利能力。

Great. And just for my follow-up question. On the international business, what sort of next milestones should we be looking at in that business? I know you talked about products essentially needing to be more customized locally. So just any color on long-term international insurance strategy.

偉大的。還有一個後續問題。在國際業務方面，我們應該關注哪些方面的下一個里程碑？我知道你之前說過產品本質上需要更多地進行在地化客製化。所以，任何顏色都適用於長期國際保險策略。

Yes, thank you. This is Mark. Just to kind of follow-up on the question. So I think what we've seen it's a bit of a build and buy scenario. So what we are now doing, which has become very powerful for the customers, is we've taken many of our solutions and we've started to integrate them in a more holistic way. So walking into a customer as opposed to buying all these point solutions, there's an attractiveness of knowing that your data is going to flow from the beginning of a process that starts at maybe a quote or an underwriting decision on through the process, so you can see it from a portfolio perspective in some of our catastrophe-modeling solutions. And all of that is information that's embodied in the solution that's Sequel.

是的，謝謝。這是馬克。我只是想就這個問題做個後續補充。所以我覺得我們看到的是一種建設和收購結合的模式。所以，我們現在正在做的，對客戶來說已經變得非常有效，就是我們已經將我們的許多解決方案以更全面的方式整合起來。因此，與購買所有這些零散的解決方案相比，直接與客戶接觸的吸引力在於，您可以知道您的資料將從流程的開始（例如報價或承保決定）一直持續到整個流程結束，這樣您就可以從投資組合的角度來查看我們的一些災害建模解決方案。所有這些資訊都體現在 Sequel 這個解決方案中。

The concept and construct here is I can do it more effectively, I can do it more efficiently, I can do it more accurately. And on top of that backbone, we've added some of, I'll refer to it, the ISO and some of the other analytics that has been so powerful here in the States. So that continues to evolve. I think we'll be able to do more and more with customers as we gain access to more data. And maybe just to take your question one step further, to maybe highlight that I think we see London as being kind of a gateway into the international community, especially with the specialty lines. So as we win these contracts, we're very doing work not just in the U.K., but with companies who are located in the U.K. but are underwriting business throughout the world. So our next step into other geographies is that much easier.

這裡的概念和結構是：我可以更有效率地完成這件事，我可以更有效率地完成這件事，我可以更準確地完成這件事。在此基礎上，我們還添加了一些，我稱之為 ISO 和其他一些在美國非常強大的分析技術。所以它還在不斷發展。我認為，隨著我們獲得更多數據，我們將能夠為客戶做越來越多的事情。或許可以進一步回答你的問題，我想強調的是，我們認為倫敦是通往國際社會的門戶，尤其是在專業領域。因此，隨著我們贏得這些合同，我們不僅在英國開展業務，而且還與位於英國但業務遍及全球的公司合作。因此，我們進軍其他地區的下一步就容易多了。

Our next question comes from the line of David Togut from Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 David Togut。

I'd like to ask about the Financial Services business, which was really weak for the second year in a row. I'm wondering if this business has the same distinctives that really characterize both your Insurance and your Energy and Specialized Markets businesses, especially since competition here seems to be increasing with a number of well-capitalized competitors like MasterCard offering more and more analytics to credit card issuers. So my question really is, does this business really still fit within Verisk, especially given the broader capital allocation framework that you've rolled out today, which seems to focus more on capital return?

我想問一下金融服務業務的情況，該業務連續第二年表現疲軟。我想知道這項業務是否具有貴公司保險業務和能源及專業市場業務的真正特色，尤其是在競爭日益激烈的情況下，像萬事達卡這樣資金雄厚的競爭對手正在向信用卡發行商提供越來越多的分析服務。所以我的問題其實是，這項業務是否仍然適合 Verisk，尤其是在你們今天推出的更廣泛的資本配置框架下，該框架似乎更注重資本回報？

David, Scott here. Yes, the business does fit. The -- I think that many of the folks on the call today are familiar with what we call our 4 distinctives, which we talk about a lot, which, just to remind everybody are: unique data assets, deep domain expertise, first-mover advantage and deep embedment in customer workflows. And what we do in Financial Services has all 4 of those qualities. So as Lee previously talked about some of the things that have sort moved through the business of late, and we talked about the -- sort of the lumpy quality of the way that some of the revenues had been recognized in the past.

大衛，我是史考特。是的，這家公司很適合。我認為今天參加電話會議的許多人都熟悉我們所說的 4 個獨特優勢，我們經常談到這些優勢，為了提醒大家，它們是：獨特的數據資產、深厚的領域專業知識、先發優勢和深度融入客戶工作流程。我們在金融服務領域所做的工作具備這四項特質。正如 Lee 之前談到的，最近在業務中發生的一些事情，我們也談到了過去一些收入確認方式的不穩定性。

But what I would go back to is that the heart of the business is built on consortium data, which is absolutely unique. And unlike the data, which is available to anyone else, including the players you mentioned, on top of which then we have very deep relationships with our customers and, really, a large data platform which is really remarkable for a company of its size. So all of the conditions are there. And then I will also say, again, echoing what Lee said, the strength of portfolio analytics plus the spend analytics that we do are the leading parts of the business, and they're actually healthy. So we expect that as these other effects sort of wash through, you'll get sort of a more clear view of those things built upon the distinctives, which really will power the business going forward.

但我還是要強調，這項業務的核心是建立在聯盟數據之上的，這是絕對獨一無二的。與其他人（包括你提到的那些玩家）都能獲得的數據不同，我們與客戶建立了非常深厚的關係，並且擁有一個龐大的數據平台，這對於一家規模如此之大的公司來說，確實非常了不起。所以所有條件都具備了。然後，我還要再次重申李的觀點，投資組合分析和支出分析的優勢是業務的領先部分，而且它們目前發展良好。因此我們預計，隨著這些其他因素逐漸顯現，您將更清楚地看到那些建立在獨特性之上的東西，這些東西將真正推動業務向前發展。

As a quick follow-up, I'd just like to ask about dividend policy. The math shows that the LTM payout ratio is about 28%. How do you think about the payout ratio that you're using to set the dividend? And do you expect the dividend to grow in line with earnings or faster than earnings growing going forward?

最後，我想快速問一下股利政策。數學計算表明，LTM 派息率約為 28%。您如何看待您用來設定股利的派息率？您預計未來股息成長速度會與獲利成長速度持平，還是會超過獲利成長速度？

Thanks, David. It's Lee, let me take that. So we -- in setting that level, we looked at the payout ratio, really, also what proportion of capital are we allocating to the dividend, and an eye on kind of yield and where yields are out there. We recognize that investors will expect and reward growth in the dividend over time, and we certainly believe that our ongoing earnings growth will provide a very strong consideration for these decisions by our board in the future. We also expect to weigh capital investment and return opportunities in the allocation decisions ahead. So all of those, I think, factor into it. But there clearly is a recognition that there'll be an expectation given our overall growth that the dividend should grow as well. And that's what we will balance looking ahead in advising the board on these decisions.

謝謝你，大衛。是李，讓我來接吧。因此，在設定這個水準時，我們確實考慮了派息率，以及我們分配給股息的資本比例，同時也關注了殖利率以及市場上的殖利率水準。我們認識到，投資者會期望並獎勵股息的成長，我們也堅信，我們持續的獲利成長將為董事會未來的決策提供非常重要的考量。我們也計劃在未來的資產配置決策中權衡資本投資和回報機會。所以我覺得所有這些因素都影響了結果。但很明顯，鑑於我們整體的成長，人們會期望股息也隨之成長。這就是我們在展望未來，就這些決策向董事會提供建議時需要權衡的因素。

Our next question comes from the line of Manav Patnaik from Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的馬納夫·帕特奈克。

Scott, I think at the beginning of the call, you talked about the repurposing of some of the insurance consortium data. And I was wondering if you could just expand on that, maybe taking a step back and letting us know how much of the data do you have access now to play around and innovate with, and if this is a new or ongoing opportunity.

史考特，我想在通話開始時，你談到了重新利用一些保險聯盟數據的問題。我想請您進一步闡述一下，或許可以退一步，告訴我們您現在可以存取多少資料來進行研究和創新，以及這是一個新的還是持續的機會。

Yes, so let me start, and Mark, you may want to amplify some of this. But when we think about data in the Insurance vertical, it's really a combination of looking for opportunities to tease additional meaning out of existing datasets and generating new datasets. So upfront, I mentioned, for example, subrogation. Subrogation is essentially bound up in the claims resolution process, and as I think most folks know, we have a lot of claims data. So finding a way to point that at the subrogation case and to think about affiliated things like clearing payment between counterparts is just interesting, and it's really a process that hasn't really been transformed yet in the insurance industry. So that would be an example of repurposing.

好的，那我就先開始吧。馬克，你可能需要補充一些內容。但當我們思考保險業的數據時，實際上是在尋找機會從現有數據集中挖掘出更多意義，以及產生新的數據集。所以一開始，我提到了，例如，代位求償。代位求償本質上與索賠解決過程密切相關，而且我認為大多數人都知道，我們有很多索賠數據。因此，找到一種方法，將這一點與代位求償案件聯繫起來，並思考諸如交易對手之間清算付款等相關事項，這很有趣，而且這確實是保險業尚未真正變革的一個過程。這就是一個資源再利用的例子。

But, then there are other places where we're trying to generate original datasets. And one thing I would just comment on here is that, on the one hand, we're very alert to opportunities to position data to where it can be repurposed. On the other hand, we're very diligent about the reasons why our customers made the data available to us in the first place. And so we're always going to be striking a balance between what's possible and what our customer contributors would like to see us do, but there's plenty of room in there for innovation. And then there are a variety of new datasets where we're making original calls for data. And actually, even that takes a couple of forms. One is we have existing platforms like PCS, where we've started the call data related to cyber incidents and we didn't used to do that. So that's original data, but around an existing platform. We're always trying to enrich the data that comes into a platform like ClaimSearch and then we're trying to find that get new forms of claims data that we don't receive today, for example, commercial claims histories are not as developed as personal claims histories. Mark, anything you want to add to all that?

但是，在其他一些地方，我們也嘗試產生原創資料集。我在這裡想補充一點，一方面，我們非常關注如何將資料放置在可以重新利用的位置。另一方面，我們非常認真地探究客戶當初為何提供這些數據給我們。因此，我們始終會在現實情況和客戶希望我們做的事情之間尋求平衡，但其中仍有很大的發展空間。此外，還有各種新的資料集，我們正在對這些資料集發出原創資料請求。實際上，即使是這一點，也有幾種不同的形式。一方面，我們有了像 PCS 這樣的現有平台，我們已經開始收集與網路安全事件相關的呼叫數據，而我們以前並沒有這樣做。所以這是原始數據，但基於現有平台。我們一直在努力豐富 ClaimSearch 等平台的數據，並努力尋找目前尚未收到的新形式的索賠數據，例如，商業索賠歷史記錄不如個人索賠歷史記錄完善。馬克，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yes, I think that was well said. I think it goes back to the earlier comments you made about partnerships and conversations with CEOs. In the world of data, obviously, our customers and many people feel their data is valuable. So we need to provide them with valuable use cases back to their businesses in order for them to let us use the data. So having the great partnerships and relationships is very important. We continue to be a trusted intermediary for that data and we feel that's a privileged position.

是的，我覺得說得很好。我認為這可以追溯到你之前關於合作夥伴關係以及與執行長對話的評論。在數據領域，很顯然，我們的客戶和許多人都認為他們的數據很有價值。因此，我們需要向他們提供對其業務有價值的用例，以便他們允許我們使用這些數據。因此，擁有良好的合作夥伴關係非常重要。我們一直是這些數據的可信賴中介，我們認為這是一個特殊的地位。

Got it. And just as a follow-up, Lee, just on the Energy and Specialized side, I think last year, you guys called out -- I think it was a bank and then a merger-related kind of headwind to the business. Have we lapped those comps? And does that mean, next year, the numbers should start looking better?

知道了。李，作為後續問題，就能源和專業領域而言，我認為去年你們曾指出——我認為是一家銀行，然後是與併購相關的某種業務逆風。我們是否已經超越了那些競爭對手？那是否意味著明年的數據會開始好轉？

Thank you, Manav. The -- we will lap that in the first quarter of 2019. So we were still experiencing that headwind in the fourth quarter, but that will go away in the first quarter of 2019.

謝謝你，馬納夫。我們將在 2019 年第一季超越這個數字。因此，我們在第四季仍然面臨這種不利因素，但這種情況將在 2019 年第一季消失。

Our next question comes from the line of Andrew Steinerman from JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Andrew Steinerman。

It's Andrew. I wanted to ask about WoodMac 2.0, Lens. What are some milestone and rollout that we should be looking for? And will WoodMac 2.0 help margins and revenues or just one of them? And particularly, make a comment for 2019.

是安德魯。我想諮詢 WoodMac 2.0 和 Lens。我們應該關注哪些里程碑和推廣計劃？WoodMac 2.0 能否提高利潤率和收入，還是只能提高其中一項？尤其請對 2019 年發表一些看法。

Yes. So let me take it as a general level, Andrew, and maybe, Lee, if you want to add anything. It's constructive on both the revenue and the margin side because part of what Lens is getting after is the very nature of our data aggregation and it becomes more efficient on this platform that we built, but equally, there's more functionality there for customers, and so we think it'll be constructive in both ways. I don't -- I wouldn't point you so much to milestones or at least not those that will be called out in the overall performance of the business. What I'm trying -- and I'm not making a comment about the future profile of the financial performance of the business, I'm simply saying the revenue streams are all sort of -- think of it as a bowl of spaghetti and Lens works its way through things that we already do. In addition to representing modules -- new modules that we can license to customers. But as called out, specifics, basically, it'll be -- we do business with so many companies already, this will really enhance cross-selling into existing relationships. But in terms of visibility to the outside, I'm not -- I wouldn't call out any particular milestone. Just the general progress of the business, really. Lee, anything you want to add to that?

是的。那麼，安德魯，我從整體上談談我的看法，李，如果你想補充什麼的話。從收入和利潤兩方面來看，這都是建設性的，因為 Lens 所追求的部分目標正是我們資料聚合的本質，而我們所建構的這個平台讓資料聚合變得更有效率；同時，它也為客戶提供了更多功能，因此我們認為這在兩方面都是建設性的。我不會－我不會過度強調你里程碑，或至少不會強調那些會在企業整體績效中被重點提及的里程碑。我正在嘗試的是——我不是在評論公司未來的財務業績，我只是想說，收入來源就像——你可以把它想像成一碗意大利麵，Lens 正在處理我們已經做的事情。除了展示模組之外－我們還可以向客戶授權使用新的模組。但正如前面提到的，具體來說，基本上——我們已經與許多公司有業務往來，這將真正加強與現有關係的交叉銷售。但就外界的關注度而言，我不會——我不會指出任何特定的里程碑。其實就是公司整體的進展。李，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

No, I think Scott covered it. I would just make the comment that Lens really represents the platform that enables us to continue the evolution of a very good research and consulting business into increasingly a data analytics business that can serve a broader customer base, can develop and integrate data products more effectively, which is beneficial both from a revenue growth standpoint as well as from a margin perspective and I would just finally add that the team there continues to work on operational efficiencies to improve the margin as well.

不，我覺得斯科特已經解釋過了。我想補充一點，Lens 平台真正代表了我們能夠繼續將一家非常優秀的研究和諮詢公司發展成為一家數據分析公司，從而服務於更廣泛的客戶群體，更有效地開發和整合數據產品。這無論從收入成長或利潤率的角度來看都是有利的。最後，我還想補充一點，Lens 團隊也不斷努力提高營運效率，以提高利潤率。

But Lee, might there be a time, like maybe this year, where you're running 2 infrastructures for WoodMac and it might be a drag to margins?

但李，會不會出現這種情況：例如今年，你為 WoodMac 運行兩套基礎設施，這可能會拖累利潤率？

Well, I mean, yes, but no. So you observe something, yes, but the implication I don't think is right. So yes, we need to be running things in parallel and we have been investing, as Lee has referenced several times, to build the platform. But the actual operation of the platform -- I mean, one of the things that so constructive inside of our business is that we enjoy the gift of Moore's Law every day. And so, actually, the cost of compiling data or even processing data inside of the platform that you have built, the incremental cost is not really all that great. I'm not saying that it's zero. So you're correct about what we will do operationally, but I think the implication you were trying to reach in terms of operating expense going forward is not so accurate.

嗯，我的意思是，是的，但也不是。所以你觀察到了某些現象，沒錯，但我認為其推論並不正確。所以，是的，我們需要並行進行各項工作，而且正如李多次提到的那樣，我們一直在投資建造這個平台。但平台的實際運作——我的意思是，我們業務中最具建設性的事情之一就是我們每天都能享受到摩爾定律帶來的益處。因此，實際上，編譯資料甚至在你所建構的平台內處理資料的成本，增量成本並不算太大。我不是說它是零。所以，你對我們未來營運方式的理解是正確的，但我認為你試圖就未來營運費用得出的結論並不準確。

Yes. And I would go, more broadly, I think that point has some relevance with regard to our transition to cloud where we are making investments and see opportunities to find greater efficiencies, where we still have a legacy costs. I think that is -- would be a valid observation, not so much in this context. So thank you for the question.

是的。更廣泛地說，我認為這一點與我們向雲端轉型有一定的關聯性，我們正在進行投資，並看到了提高效率的機會，但我們仍然存在遺留成本。我認為──這或許是個有效的觀點，但在這個脈絡下卻不太適用。謝謝你的提問。

Our next question comes from the line of Tim McHugh from William Blair & Company.

我們的下一個問題來自威廉布萊爾公司的提姆麥克休。

First, I wanted to ask on the Energy side of the business. In the prepared remarks, you talked about being close to signing a consortium deal. Can you talk more about that and the nature of the data, I guess, and the product, I guess, that would flow out of it?

首先，我想問一下能源方面的業務狀況。在事先準備好的發言稿中，你提到即將簽署一項財團協議。您能否詳細談談這方面的內容，以及數據的性質，以及由此產生的產品？

Yes. So those of you who have followed us know that the majority, in fact, a large majority, of the data that we've had up until today has been mostly about the commercial dimensions of the oil and gas business. So observations about productivity and the cost factors associated with the assets that produce either the raw materials or the refined materials. So those are the datasets that have typically, traditionally, been a part of what we do. The datasets we're adding are what we call the subsurface datasets, and these are the ones that take into account the actual real-time operations, even in the oilfield, in combination with the nature of the rock and the nature of the fluids and the nature of the fields, so that we can complement everything we've already done -- always done with basically much more real-time optimization of the operations of our customers' assets. And this is something that we haven't done as much of, in fact, very little of, up until now. So the datasets relate to that, real-time operational optimization.

是的。所以一直關注我們的各位都知道，事實上，到目前為止，我們掌握的大部分數據都與石油和天然氣業務的商業層面有關。因此，需要觀察與生產原材料或精煉材料的資產相關的生產率和成本因素。所以，這些資料集通常是我們工作的一部分。我們正在添加的數據集是我們稱之為地下數據集的數據集，這些數據集考慮了實際的實時操作，甚至包括油田的實時操作，並結合岩石的性質、流體的性質和油田的性質，以便我們可以補充我們已經完成的一切——始終致力於對客戶資產的運營進行更多實時優化。事實上，到目前為止，我們在這方面做得併不多，甚至很少。所以這些數據集與即時營運優化有關。

Did you say it was for a specific region or subsector of companies you would start with?

您說過您會從特定地區或特定產業的公司著手嗎？

Well, the -- so whenever we talk about a consortium dataset, you're always talking about specific customers and, generally, specific product sets or specific places. So that does apply in what we're doing in building these new datasets, these subsurface datasets. And our focus right now, predominantly, is the Lower 48 in the United States, where the need -- the situation in the United States is different than the situation in most other parts of the world. Because in the United States, what the operators are doing is basically saying, "That particular rig, should I move it 2,000 feet? And I can move it and 4 days later, have a 1,000-foot well that's producing." And so that's the speed with which "Strategy" is being set and operations are being rebalanced in the United States.

嗯，所以每當我們談到聯盟資料集時，我們總是在談論特定的客戶，而且通常是特定的產品集或特定的地點。所以，這確實適用於我們正在建立的這些新資料集，這些地下資料集。而我們目前的重點主要在美國本土48州，因為美國的需求──美國的情況與世界其他大部分地區的情況不同。因為在美國，運營商實際上是在說：“那台鑽機，我應該把它移動 2000 英尺嗎？”我可以把它移過去，4天后，就能有一口1000英尺深的油井開始生產了。 」 這就是美國制定「戰略」和重新調整營運的速度。

Okay. Great. And then can I just -- on the Insurance side, the aerial imagery product set, can you -- I think you mentioned this, one of the growth drivers, I guess. But can you give us a more color on adoption, kind of competition for that product at this point? How it's scaling maybe relative to what the initial plan was 18 months ago or 12 months ago when you kind of made a more aggressive push into the space.

好的。偉大的。然後，關於保險業務方面，特別是空拍圖像產品系列，我想您之前提到過，這應該是增長動力之一。但您能否更詳細地介紹一下該產品目前的市場接受度和競爭情況？它的規模擴張方式可能與 18 個月前或 12 個月前的最初計劃有所不同，當時你們曾經更加積極地進軍這個領域。

Sure. So this is Mark. I think your question is directed at Insurance, and at the same time, let me maybe extend a little beyond that. So first of all, we've been very pleased with the takeaway we've had in the market. Our market share is growing. We've won significant customers, and many of them, that has clearly contributed to some of the organic growth that we've talked about here. Beyond what is -- I'll refer to it as kind of market share, we've also continued to add products. So remember, in the world of what I view as a complete automated solution, if I was to take and use imagery in combination with some of the scoping and what we refer to as Image-to-Scope, which is the Xactimate tool behind or in front of all this imagery, we can really automate and become more accurate and more cost-effective for those claims adjusters. Literally, we think we can double the productivity of the claims adjuster field forces at our customers, saving them hundreds of millions of dollars. So we're seeing that. What I also like to highlight though is that growth is extending beyond what is traditional insurance. If you think about the world of contractors, if you think about the world of -- I'll refer to it as mapping and construction as well as roofing companies, all of those found use cases in some slimmed-down or innovative way we view some of the technology. So that is contributing to the growth across the board, even outside of insurance.

當然。這位是馬克。我認為你的問題是關於保險的，同時，我也想稍微拓展一下我的回答。首先，我們對市場上的銷售情況非常滿意。我們的市場佔有率正在成長。我們贏得了許多重要客戶，其中許多客戶顯然促進了我們在這裡談到的一些自然成長。除了市場份額（我姑且這麼稱呼它）之外，我們還不斷增加產品。所以請記住，在我所認為的完全自動化解決方案的世界裡，如果我將圖像與一些範圍界定以及我們所說的圖像到範圍界定（即所有這些圖像的背後或前面的 Xactimate 工具）結合起來使用，我們就可以真正實現自動化，並為理賠員帶來更高的準確性和成本效益。從字面上講，我們認為我們可以將客戶現場理賠員的工作效率提高一倍，為他們節省數億美元。所以我們看到了這一點。不過，我還想強調的是，這種成長已經超越了傳統保險的範疇。想想承包商的世界，想想地圖繪製和建築的世界，以及屋頂公司的世界，所有這些行業都以某種精簡或創新的方式找到了應用案例，我們看待某些技術的方式也是如此。因此，這促進了各行各業的成長，甚至包括保險業以外的行業。

Our next question comes from the line of Bill Warmington from Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的比爾沃明頓。

So you mentioned the U.K. and model and a gateway for international expansion. So culturally, there's a lot of similarities between the U.S. and the U.K., I guess Winston Churchill would call them 2 nations divided by a common language. But as you go -- as you look to prioritize your other geographies for international expansion, what are the ones where you're going to be focusing first?

所以你提到了英國，以及英國的模式和國際擴張的門戶。所以從文化上看，美國和英國有很多相似之處，我想溫斯頓·邱吉爾會稱它們為被共同語言分隔的兩個國家。但是，隨著你不斷前進——當你考慮優先考慮國際擴張的其他地區時，你會先關注哪些地區？

So Bill, I'm going to assume that is a continuation of the conversation we had on Insurance. We think there's a lot more to do in the U.K. So we'll continue to push there. I think what we have identified is, looking at like markets, looking at places that have a more mature insurance marketplace and a gross premium and a growing gross premium, we have really identified Europe, but more specifically Germany and France is kind of the next couple of places that are of interest. Down the road, I think everyone thinks about kind of emerging markets and emerging insurance markets like China, India. We aren't turning our back on that, we're keeping an eye on it. But we kind of think, to your point, trying to stay close to the markets that are a little more mature in Europe is probably the best next step for us.

比爾，我假設這是我們之前關於保險話題的繼續。我們認為在英國還有很多工作要做，所以我們會繼續在那裡努力。我認為我們已經確定的是，透過觀察類似的市場，觀察那些擁有更成熟的保險市場和不斷增長的毛保費的地方，我們已經確定了歐洲，但更具體地說，德國和法國是我們接下來感興趣的幾個地方。從長遠來看，我認為每個人都會考慮新興市場和新興保險市場，例如中國、印度。我們不會對此置之不理，我們會密切注意。但我們認為，正如您所說，努力與歐洲那些相對成熟的市場保持緊密聯繫，可能是我們下一步最好的選擇。

Got it. And then for my follow-up, your thoughts on FX impact to revenue in 2019?

知道了。那麼，我的後續問題是：您認為匯率波動對2019年營收的影響如何？

Yes. So Bill, I know -- the reason that we try to focus on organic constant-currency numbers is that we can't predict what's going to happen from an FX standpoint. So we're focusing on results, excluding the FX range. I do think, generally, given the very strong U.S. orientation of our business generally, the fact that WoodMac has a mix of U.S. and international revenues, we think, overall, the exposure is relatively low. So I'd say proportionately, we don't think it'll have a big impact. But our focus is always to try to eliminate that factor, which we can't completely control.

是的。所以比爾，我知道——我們之所以努力關注以固定匯率計算的自然成長數據，是因為我們無法預測外匯市場將會發生什麼。因此，我們只關注結果，不考慮外匯市場的影響。我認為，總體而言，鑑於我們業務的美國化程度非常高，而 WoodMac 的收入來源包括美國和國際收入，我們認為，總體而言，風險敞口相對較低。所以我覺得，從比例來看，我們認為它不會產生太大的影響。但我們始終致力於消除我們無法完全控制的那個因素。

We have our next question from Jeff Meuler from Baird.

接下來，我們來聽聽 Baird 公司的 Jeff Meuler 提出的問題。

As you productize the subsurface consortium data as you were just kind of explaining, are you inventing new categories of solutions to sell to customers? I don't mean new relative to Verisk, I mean new relative to the market. Or said another way, do you have to displace solutions from the leading incumbents that have subsurface data already? Or are these, I guess, greenfield opportunities?

正如你剛才解釋的那樣，當你將地下聯盟數據產品化時，你是否在創造新的解決方案類別來銷售給客戶？我指的不是相對於 Verisk 而言的新，而是相對於整個市場而言的新。換句話說，你是否必須取代那些已經擁有地下資料的領導者的解決方案？或者，我猜想，這些是全新的發展機會？

It's a combination of the 2, and it really hinges upon how much analytic content we get into what we do. So there are players today that will provide observations about a number of this sort of individual parameters that apply when you're trying to understand the productivity of real-time operations. So from one place, you can get data as it relates to, for example, the completion strategies that have been taken for the individual well. There are other sources where you can make sure that you have completely identified the leasing -- the lease holding and ownership structure of whatever patch of land you're talking about. And then other places, you can go for the heavy seismology work, and on and on and on like that.

這是兩者的結合，而且這真的取決於我們在工作中融入了多少分析內容。因此，如今有一些玩家會提供關於許多此類個別參數的觀察結果，這些參數適用於您試圖了解即時營運的生產力。因此，從這裡，您可以獲得與例如單個油井所採取的完井策略相關的數據。還有其他途徑可以確保你已經完全確定了你所談論的任何一塊土地的租賃情況——租賃持有和所有權結構。然後，你也可以去其他地方從事繁重的地震學工作，諸如此類，不勝枚舉。

So part of what we will do is to increasingly make those types of -- those kinds of data available to our customers. But then over and above that, what doesn't exist so much in the marketplace today is the -- is really the AI, machine-learned expression of all of that data in quantity across heterogeneous situations. So that in an automated fashion, you can really make predictions and drive decisioning. And there, we expect, because we're Verisk, we will be distinguished. How much those kinds of solutions generate completely original revenue streams versus how much they displace, for example, some of these bespoke datasets, I would say that remains to be seen. The primary point here is there is the opportunity for differentiation.

因此，我們將採取的部分措施是，逐步向我們的客戶提供這些類型的數據。但除此之外，目前市場上真正缺乏的是——人工智慧、機器學習在各種不同情況下對所有這些數據進行大規模表達的能力。這樣一來，你就可以以自動化的方式進行預測並推動決策。我們相信，因為我們是 Verisk，我們將脫穎而出。這些解決方案究竟能在多大程度上創造全新的收入來源，又能多大程度取代某些客製化資料集，我認為這還有待觀察。關鍵在於存在差異化的機會。

That's helpful. And then on the Insurance business, there's been underlying acceleration and there's a couple of years where maybe it was growing below trend a few years ago, and you called out some various moment-in-time factors at that point. But I guess, Scott, as you list out the 8 factors that are driving it, they sound largely sustainable. So just -- how are you thinking about Insurance growth at this point? Like, has bookings growth also accelerated? Is bookings growth outpacing revenue growth?

那很有幫助。保險業方面，一直存在著潛在的加速成長，而幾年前，它的成長可能低於趨勢水平，您當時也指出了一些不同的特定時期的因素。但我想，史考特，你列出的這 8 個驅動因素聽起來大多是可持續的。那麼，您目前如何看待保險業的成長？預訂量的成長是否也加速了？預訂量成長速度是否超過了營收成長速度？

Yes. So yes, you definitely understood what I was saying upfront. All 8 of those trends apply broadly across our company, but specifically in the Insurance vertical. I mean, if you just step back and you say, okay, this environment, this insurance environment, what characterizes it? The customer set is relatively stable. There are occasionally some large merger transactions and there are some segments, like global reinsurance brokers, where there's been some of that. But by and large, the customer demography is steady. Regulation really doesn't change that much. Energy -- or excuse me, technology is a constructive factor as it relates to a company like us because back to the top, every -- virtually every one of our customers believes they can grow faster than their competitors and so everybody is trying to behave innovatively. And so that's just inherently constructive for folks like us. And then if you think about all of the many references that we've made this morning, there are just new things that we're doing and bringing to the market that don't exist. And so it's a constructive environment. I mean, the United States property and casualty insurance industry, our home market, is the granddaddy of large-scale contributory data analytics. I mean, it was invented that way practically. And so we really have this wonderful privilege of being who we are inside of that very constructive environment.

是的。所以，是的，你肯定明白我一開始說的意思。這 8 個趨勢普遍適用於我們公司，尤其是在保險業。我的意思是，如果你退後一步，認真思考一下，好吧，這個環境，這個保險環境，它的特點是什麼？客戶群相對穩定。偶爾會出現一些大型併購交易，在某些領域，例如全球再保險經紀領域，已經發生過一些這樣的交易。但整體而言，客戶群結構保持穩定。監理方面其實變化不大。能源——或者更確切地說，技術——對於像我們這樣的公司來說是一個建設性的因素，因為回到最初的問題，我們幾乎每一位客戶都相信他們可以比競爭對手成長得更快，所以每個人都在努力進行創新。所以這對像我們這樣的人來說，本身就具有建設性意義。再想想我們今天早上提到的所有這些東西，我們正在做的事情，以及我們正在帶給市場上的那些以前不存在的新事物。所以這是一個建設性的環境。我的意思是，美國的財產和意外保險業，也就是我們的本土市場，是大規模貢獻資料分析的始祖。我的意思是，它其實就是這樣發明出來的。因此，我們真的有幸能在這樣一個充滿建設性的環境中做真實的自己。

Our next question comes from the line of George Tong of Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛集團的喬治唐。

I'd like to drill deeper into the Financial Services business. You touched on plans to reduce the variability of revenues through the restructuring of contracts. Can you elaborate on the initiatives you have to improve the overall growth of the segment? Because in the quarter, even after normalizing for the year ago implementation revenues associated with thesis, organic growth would've been pretty muted. Any color there would be helpful.

我想深入了解金融服務業。您提到了透過重組合約來降低收入波動性的計劃。您能否詳細說明您為促進該細分市場整體成長所採取的措施？因為即使在去年同期與該理論相關的實施收入進行調整後，本季的有機成長也會相當平淡。任何顏色都會有所幫助。

Sure. So George, this is Lee, and I'm going to a refer back to the kind of description and the organization that Lisa gave at Investor Day. And so I think it's helpful if you think about it in the 4 components. The foundation of this business is the benchmarking solutions business. And as we indicated, the growth in that part of the business remains very stable. In addition, the spend informed analytics component remains solid. The 2 areas where, in the fourth quarter, and I think represent our opportunity to make progress, is in the enterprise data management component. And that really is an emerging space. It is one where we are finding opportunities to develop new data management solutions for our customers given our scale, given our expertise. And that's something that we certainly think, based upon feedback from clients, is very positive. But that is something that we'll develop over time. We are encouraged by the initial responses. And the other element is the fraud component. And that's an area similarly where we feel very good about the contributions from our acquisition of the LCI and G2. We're in the process of developing some of the infrastructure, some of the product sets around that. And we think that, over time, that area will also be a stronger contributor to the growth overall. So that would the way I would kind of organize thinking around where we see or where we have immediate focus on improving the growth rate for that business.

當然。喬治，我是李，我要回顧麗莎在投資人日上對公司和組織的描述。所以我覺得，如果從這四個面向來考慮這個問題，會很有幫助。這家公司的基礎是標竿管理解決方案業務。正如我們所指出的，該業務部分的成長依然非常穩定。此外，基於支出情況的分析組件依然穩健。在第四季度，我認為代表我們取得進展的兩個領域是企業資料管理元件。這確實是一個新興領域。憑藉我們的規模和專業知識，我們正在尋找機會為客戶開發新的資料管理解決方案。根據客戶的回饋，我們認為這確實是一個非常積極的方面。但這是我們需要逐步發展的。我們對初步回饋感到鼓舞。另一個因素是詐欺。同樣，我們對收購 LCI 和 G2 的貢獻也感到非常滿意。我們正在開發一些基礎設施，以及圍繞這些基礎設施開發一些產品組合。我們認為，隨著時間的推移，該領域也將對整體成長做出更大的貢獻。所以，我會這樣組織思路，圍繞著我們看到或我們目前需要重點關注的領域，來提高該業務的成長率。

Very helpful. As a follow-up, I'd like to switch over to the Energy business. You saw an incremental step-down in organic constant-currency growth there. Can you talk about trends in your nonrecurring revenue streams in Energy and how annualized contract value growth is progressing in light of some of the declines we've seen in oil prices?

很有幫助。作為後續，我想轉到能源產業。您會看到自然成長率（以固定匯率計算）出現逐步下降。您能否談談能源領域非經常性收入流的趨勢，以及在油價下跌的情況下，年度合約價值成長的進展？

Sure. So I think in that, that's principally the consulting component business that was -- it was still growing and growing at a higher rate than our subscription business. But the third quarter was particularly strong and so, I think, that contributed at one level to a slight -- and I would just view it as kind of a slight slowdown relative to the third quarter level. But overall, I think we see progress in the -- continued progress in the subscription component of the business, particularly as it relates to the new breakout initiatives that are generating strong subscription growth within that segment.

當然。所以我認為，主要原因在於諮詢業務——它仍在成長，而且成長速度比我們的訂閱業務更快。但第三季度表現尤為強勁，因此，我認為這在某種程度上導致了輕微的——我只會將其視為相對於第三季度水平的輕微放緩。但總的來說，我認為我們在業務的訂閱部分取得了持續進展，尤其是在與新的突破性舉措相關的方面，這些舉措正在該領域內帶來強勁的訂閱成長。

I would just add that the recent movement in the commodity is within a range that we don't consider material to the performance of our business.

我還要補充一點，近期該商品價格的波動幅度在我們看來不會對我們業務的業績產生實質影響。

Our last question comes from the line of Jeff Silber from BMO Capital Markets.

最後一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的 Jeff Silber。

I'll be quick. Just a couple of quick numbers questions. Lee, what should we be modeling for interest expense this year? And also the tax rate guidance that you gave us for a 2019, is that something we should use longer term?

我會盡快。幾個簡單的數字題。李，我們今年該如何模擬利息支出？另外，您先前給予的 2019 年稅率指導意見，我們是否應該長期沿用？

Yes. So on tax, I think based upon what we see right now, obviously, any changes in the -- in tax legislation, I think that 19% to 21% range is a good basis. On interest expense, it is not something that we give formal guidance. We -- obviously, that's going to flux based upon what happens in the business and our capital allocation decisions. So I think kind of starting with the point of just stability in overall debt levels and looking at the average rates is probably a middle of the way road to go. But I wouldn't give you any specific guidance beyond that because that will adjust based upon our capital allocation decisions over time. I would expect that we remain within this leverage range absent any other material changes.

是的。所以關於稅收，我認為根據我們目前所看到的，顯然，稅收立法的任何變化，我認為 19% 到 21% 的範圍是一個不錯的基準。關於利息支出，我們不提供正式的指導意見。顯然，這種情況會根據業務發展和我們的資本配置決策而有所變化。所以我認為，從穩定整體債務水準和關注平均利率入手，可能是一種折衷的方法。但我不會給你任何更具體的指導，因為這會根據我們隨著時間的推移而進行的資本配置決策而調整。如果沒有其他實質變化，我預計我們將保持在這個槓桿率範圍內。

Okay. Well, thank you all very much for your continued interest in Verisk, and we look forward to following up with a number of you as well as those who are taking a new look at Verisk based upon our new capital policy, including the dividend.

好的。非常感謝大家一直以來對 Verisk 的關注，我們期待著與你們中的一些人以及那些根據我們新的資本政策（包括股息）重新審視 Verisk 的人進行後續溝通。

So look forward to our continuing conversations with you. Thanks. Thanks for this morning, and your attention.

期待與您繼續交流。謝謝。感謝您今天上午的關注。