Verisk Analytics Inc (VRSK) 2021 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Verisk First Quarter 2021 Earnings Results Conference Call. This call is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

各位好，歡迎參加Verisk 2021財年第一季財報電話會議。本次電話會議正在錄音。 （操作員說明）

For opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to Verisk's Head of Investor Relations, Ms. Stacey Brodbar. Ms. Brodbar, please go ahead.

接下來，我將把電話交給Verisk的投資者關係主管Stacey Brodbar女士，請她致開幕詞並進行介紹。 Brodbar女士，請開始吧。

Thank you, Myera, and good day, everyone. We appreciate you joining us today for a discussion of our first quarter 2021 financial results. Today's call will be led by Scott Stephenson, Verisk's Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer, who will provide an overview of our business. Lee Shavel, Chief Financial Officer and Group President, will follow with the financial review. Mark Anquillare, Chief Operating Officer and Group President, will join the team for the Q&A session.

謝謝Myera，大家好。感謝各位今天參加我們2021年第一季財務業績討論會。本次電話會議將由Verisk董事長、總裁兼執行長Scott Stephenson主持，他將概述公司業務。財務長兼集團總裁Lee Shavel將隨後進行財務回顧。營運長兼集團總裁Mark Anquillare將加入問答環節。

The earnings release referenced on this call as well as the associated 10-Q can be found in the Investors section of our website, verisk.com. The earnings release has also been attached to an 8-K that we have furnished to the SEC. A replay of this call will be available for 30 days on our website and by dial in.

本次電話會議中提及的獲利報告以及相關的10-Q表格可在我們網站verisk.com的「投資者關係」欄位中找到。該盈利報告也已附在我們提交給美國證券交易委員會（SEC）的8-K表格中。本次電話會議的錄音回放將在我們網站上保留30天，也可透過電話撥入收聽。

Finally, as set forth in more detail in today's earnings release, I will remind everyone that today's call may include forward-looking statements about Verisk's future performance, including, but not limited to, the potential impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. Actual performance could differ materially from what is suggested by our comments today. Information about the factors that could affect future performance is contained in our recent SEC filings.

最後，正如今天發布的財報中更詳細闡述的那樣，我要提醒各位，今天的電話會議可能包含有關Verisk未來業績的前瞻性陳述，包括但不限於COVID-19疫情的潛在影響。實際業績可能與我們今天所作的陳述有重大差異。有關可能影響未來業績的因素的信息，請參閱我們近期提交給美國證券交易委員會（SEC）的文件。

And now I will turn the call over to Scott.

現在我將把電話交給史考特。

Thanks, Stacey. Hello, everyone, and thank you for joining us for our first quarter 2021 earnings conference call. 2021 is a special year here at Verisk as it marks our 50th anniversary as a company. For 50 years, our mission and purpose has been the same, we work nonstop in partnership with our customers, using data and insights to make a difference by helping protect people, economies, society and our planet. On this journey, we have used our unique data and combined it with advanced technologies in new ways to unlock meaningful insights about risk, becoming a global leader in cutting-edge analytics. And while we are very proud of our accomplishments over the last 50 years, it inspires us to look ahead to all the difference we can make over the next 50 years.

謝謝，Stacey。大家好，感謝各位參加我們2021財年第一季財報電話會議。 2021年對Verisk來說意義非凡，因為這是我們公司成立50週年。 50年來，我們的使命和宗旨始終如一：與客戶攜手並進，不懈努力，運用數據和洞察力，幫助保護人類、經濟、社會和地球，從而創造價值。一路走來，我們不斷創新，將自身獨特的數據與先進技術相結合，以全新的方式挖掘風險方面的深刻洞察，並最終成為全球領先的尖端分析公司。我們為過去50年所取得的成就感到無比自豪，同時也充滿信心地展望未來50年，期待創造更多價值。

I'm pleased to share that this year is off to a solid start, marked by continued growth in our subscription businesses. We delivered solid growth in Insurance, a modest sequential improvement in our Energy segment, yet we had a challenging quarter within Financial Services. While certain of our businesses continue to be impacted by the pandemic, those revenue streams show resilience as the underlying causal factors improve, and we have confidence in this relationship. Lee will provide more detail in his financial review.

我很高興地宣布，今年開局穩健，訂閱業務持續成長。保險業務實現了穩健成長，能源業務較上季略有改善，但金融服務業務在本季度面臨挑戰。儘管部分業務仍受疫情影響，但隨著根本原因的改善，這些收入來源展現韌性，我們對此充滿信心。 Lee 將在財務回顧中提供更多細節。

For 2021, we remain focused on building long-term shareholder value, delivering for our customers through innovation and service, while also protecting the health and well-being of our teammates around the globe. Currently, most of our offices are operating in a phase 1 format, and are available for those employees who have volunteered to work from the office. We do have certain offices that have advanced to phase 2 and even phase 3 as conditions in their local markets allow. And employees are energized to be back in the office.

2021年，我們將繼續專注於創造長期股東價值，透過創新和服務為客戶創造價值，同時保障全球團隊成員的健康和福祉。目前，我們大部分的辦公室都處於第一階段的復工模式，供自願到辦公室辦公的員工使用。部分辦公室已根據當地市場情況進入第二階段甚至第三階段。員工們都非常期待重返辦公室。

Our Global Protection Services team closely monitors directives from local governments and public health officials around the world as well as incorporates learnings from our local market experiences to make real-time decisions to maintain the safety of our people. To that end, our teams are closely monitoring the current situation in India in the face of a severe second wave of COVID. And we are providing relief and assistance to our India colleagues, including vaccination coverage, virtual medical services, emergency relief funds and other essential programs. To date, we have experienced minimal or no disruption to our business or the services we provide.

我們的全球安全保障服務團隊密切關注世界各地地方政府和公共衛生官員的指示，並結合我們在當地市場的經驗，即時做出決策，以確保員工的安全。為此，我們的團隊正密切關注印度當前嚴峻的第二波新冠疫情情勢。我們正在為印度的同事提供援助和支持，包括疫苗接種、遠距醫療服務、緊急救濟資金和其他必要的援助計畫。迄今為止，我們的業務和服務幾乎沒有受到任何影響。

Over the duration of the pandemic, our teams have proven they can transition efficiently into different work modes with minimal interruption in service to our customers. So while there remains some uncertainty around return-to-office timing across our many different markets, I have complete confidence that our 9,000-plus teammates at Verisk will continue to navigate through these times effectively and deliver the highest value to our customers. Throughout the pandemic, I've maintained a high level of engagement with our customers' CEOs across all 3 of our segments. Despite the virtual setting, the frequency of these meetings has increased, and the level of engagement and mutual respect has deepened.

在疫情期間，我們的團隊已經證明，他們能夠有效率地過渡到不同的工作模式，最大限度地減少對客戶服務的干擾。因此，儘管我們眾多市場在重返辦公室的時間安排上仍存在一些不確定性，但我完全相信，Verisk 的 9000 多名團隊成員將繼續高效地應對當前形勢，並為客戶創造最大價值。在整個疫情期間，我與我們三大業務部門的客戶 CEO 都保持著密切的溝通。儘管會議以線上形式進行，但會議頻率增加，溝通互動和相互尊重也更加深入。

In these conversations, we are discussing our customers' highest strategic priorities. In all circumstances, we are receiving feedback that Verisk is a trusted and differentiated partner and that our solutions and innovations play a large and increasing role in our customers' journeys to becoming more digitally engaged, more automated and more efficient. These types of constructive meetings are happening across all levels of our organization, most recently within our underwriting and claims councils, which include representatives from our top 25 customers in the Insurance vertical.

在這些對話中，我們探討了客戶最重要的策略優先事項。無論在何種情況下，我們都收到回饋，認為 Verisk 是值得信賴且獨具特色的合作夥伴，我們的解決方案和創新在客戶邁向數位化、自動化和效率提升的旅程中發揮著越來越重要的作用。這類建設性會議在我們公司各個層級都在進行，最近一次是在我們的承保和理賠委員會，其中包括來自我們保險業前 25 名客戶的代表。

With regard to digital engagement, we continue to see very strong adoption of our virtual claims processing platform, Claim Experience, as insurers continue to find additional use cases for remote claims handling outside the pandemic. Our virtual claims tools enable our customers to conduct business at a time when in-person processes were not possible. But it also has the added benefit of settling claims with greater speed. In fact, virtual claims are paid on average 30% faster than the traditional process.

在數位互動方面，我們看到我們的虛擬理賠處理平台 Claim Experience 持續受到廣泛認可，保險公司在疫情之外也不斷探索更多遠端理賠的應用場景。我們的虛擬理賠工具使客戶能夠在無法進行面對面理賠的情況下開展業務。此外，它還具有更快的理賠速度優勢。事實上，虛擬理賠的平均支付速度比傳統流程快 30%。

We've recently added new features to enhance the solution, including remote measurement, object recognition and an automated damage assessment tool. We also are having success converting customers from transactional usage to long-term contracts with committed volumes as they build comfort with the tool and realize the value their remote claims processing can bring to their organization. One of the strongest signals of the deep and expanding relationships with our customers, in our view, is the fact that they entrust us with their data. I'm pleased to share that in the most recent year, 29 insurers have decided to newly contribute data to our ISO statistical database. This is the highest number of new participants in a single year over the last 10 years, and represents a range of different customers from insurtech start-ups to multistate carriers.

我們近期新增了多項功能以增強解決方案，包括遠端測量、物件辨識和自動化損失評估工具。隨著客戶逐漸熟悉該工具並意識到遠端理賠處理能為其企業帶來的價值，我們也成功地將他們從交易型用戶轉變為簽訂長期合約並承諾一定業務量的用戶。我們認為，客戶信任我們並向我們提供數據，是我們與客戶之間關係日益密切且不斷擴展的最有力標誌之一。我很高興地宣布，在過去一年中，有 29 家保險公司決定向我們的 ISO 統計資料庫新增資料。這是近十年來單年新增用戶數量最多的一次，涵蓋了從保險科技新創公司到跨州保險公司等各類客戶。

On the sales front, we're having great success selling in virtual mode, and remain committed to advancing our techniques with ongoing training across the many new virtual selling tools we employ. Our pipelines of new opportunities are some of the strongest in our history, and they continue to build. Our customers are more engaged with Verisk as a partner as evidenced by increased numbers of meetings, better attendance at our virtual conferences and contract renewals and signings of new deals that are longer in duration.

在銷售方面，我們透過線上模式取得了巨大成功，並將繼續致力於提升銷售技巧，不斷接受培訓，熟練運用各種新型線上銷售工具。我們目前擁有史上最強勁的新商機儲備，並且持續成長。客戶與 Verisk 的合作關係日益密切，這體現在會議數量的增加、線上會議出席率的提高以及合約續約和新合約簽訂（合約期限更長）等方面。

On the innovation front, we continue to make advances with our solutions to drive digital engagement, automate processes and create a seamless interconnected ecosystem. What we at Verisk refer to as platforms analytic environments. While this is a journey we've been on for some time, the pandemic has catalyzed our customers to move forward with greater urgency and speed. These platform's analytic environments offer our customers deep integration into their workflows, and allow a massive amount of information to be rendered so that decisions can be made quickly and accurately. Often, these environments are more software-intensive as we are utilizing the software to gather more data, automate more processes and become even more deeply embedded with our customers. These platforms are also driving healthy and profitable growth for Verisk across our verticals.

在創新方面，我們不斷推進解決方案的改進，以增強數位化互動、實現流程自動化並建立無縫互聯的生態系統。在Verisk，我們稱之為平台分析環境。雖然我們已為此努力了一段時間，但疫情加速了客戶推動這項進程的腳步。這些平台的分析環境能夠與客戶的工作流程深度集成，並呈現大量訊息，從而幫助客戶快速且準確地做出決策。通常，這些環境對軟體的要求更高，因為我們需要利用軟體收集更多數據、自動化更多流程，並與客戶建立更緊密的聯繫。這些平台也為Verisk在各個垂直領域的業務成長帶來了強勁的獲利動力。

Let me give you a few recent examples. Within life insurance, we are driving strong growth and profitability as we bundle the industry-leading module software offerings at FAST, with the data analytics we have developed across Verisk to create a full suite of life insurance solutions in 1 singular platform. We're having great success extending and accelerating the adoption of FAST's solutions across our broad customer base and have a strong pipeline of future deals. In addition, we recently launched new analytics, including EHR Triage Engine and Life Risk Navigator. Electronic health record triage engine uses advanced data analytics and natural language processing to distill thousands of pages of electronic medical records into a short summary. And provides an automated underwriting score, both of which reduce underwriting costs and speed up the process, and that leads to an improved buying experience for the end consumer.

讓我舉幾個近期的例子。在人壽保險領域，我們透過將FAST行業領先的模組化軟體產品與我們在Verisk開發的數據分析技術相結合，打造出一個包含所有壽險解決方案的單一平台，從而實現了強勁的增長和盈利。我們成功地在廣泛的客戶群中推廣和加速了FAST解決方案的應用，並且擁有大量未來交易機會。此外，我們最近也推出了新的分析工具，包括電子病歷分診引擎和人壽風險導航器。電子病歷分診引擎利用先進的數據分析和自然語言處理技術，將數千頁電子病歷提煉成簡短的摘要，並提供自動核保評分。這兩項功能都能降低核保成本、加快流程，進而改善終端消費者的購買體驗。

Life Risk Navigator is a cloud-based modeling platform that offers in-depth portfolio analytics to enhance risk selection, quantify changes in mortality rates and drive overall better decision making. Further, in March, we enhanced our capabilities in life insurance through the acquisition of 4C Solutions, a software advisory firm with expertise in group life insurance. The addition of 4C enables us to extend our expertise into the group life market and help address the needs for group life insurers and institutional annuity providers. While each solution is strong on its own, we believe we deliver even more value for our customers as these solutions are integrated into 1 holistic interconnected ecosystem.

Life Risk Navigator 是一個基於雲端的建模平台，提供深入的投資組合分析，以優化風險選擇、量化死亡率變化並推動整體決策的改進。此外，今年三月，我們透過收購 4C Solutions（一家在團體人壽保險領域擁有豐富經驗的軟體顧問公司）增強了我們在人壽保險領域的實力。 4C 的加入使我們能夠將專業知識拓展到團體人壽保險市場，並更好地滿足團體人壽保險公司和機構年金提供者的需求。雖然每個解決方案本身都功能強大，但我們相信，將這些解決方案整合到整體互聯的生態系統中，能夠為客戶創造更大的價值。

We are also delivering very strong growth at Sequel as we help our customers in the specialty markets digitize and modernize. Sequel solutions create a truly integrated ecosystem across carriers, brokers and managing general agents throughout the specialty market, and we are bringing in new customers and expanding our suite of products across existing customers. We are also beginning to see traction in our global expansion of Sequel with new clients signed in the U.S. and Asia Pacific. To further enhance the value and capability of the Sequel ecosystem, we recently acquired a majority stake in Whitespace Software. The powerful combination of Whitespace's digital placing platform with Sequel's pricing, distribution and policy administration applications, enables a seamless real-time quote-to-buying solution with straight through submissions for our existing and prospective customers.

在幫助專業市場客戶實現數位化和現代化轉型的過程中，Sequel 也取得了強勁的成長。 Sequel 的解決方案在專業市場的各個環節——保險公司、經紀人和總代理商——構建了一個真正一體化的生態系統。我們不斷吸引新客戶，並為現有客戶擴展產品組合。此外，隨著在美國和亞太地區簽約新客戶，Sequel 的全球擴張也開始取得成效。為了進一步提升 Sequel 生態系統的價值和能力，我們近期收購了 Whitespace Software 的多數股權。 Whitespace 的數位化投保平台與 Sequel 的定價、分銷和保單管理應用程式的強大結合，為我們現有和潛在客戶提供了從報價到購買的無縫即時解決方案，並支援直接提交流程。

In our Energy business, we continue to make advances on the development of new modules and sales of new subscriptions for our Lens platform. Despite the softness in the energy end market, customers are recognizing the value and uniqueness of the platform, and this is reflected in new customer subscriptions and constructive pricing for customers that adopt Lens. Additionally, we have lots of interest in future releases for Lens, and already have a group of development partners in place to support Lens Power. Backed by the proprietary data assets of Wood Mackenzie and Genscape, Lens Power enables customers to maximize investment opportunities in clean energy and be on the forefront of the energy transition and further advances our market-leading position in the energy transition. We are well positioned to capitalize on the growing trends of countries and companies around the world, increasing investment toward renewables and green energy, and our solutions will help inform these critical decisions at the highest levels.

在能源業務方面，我們持續推動Lens平台新模組的開發和新訂閱的銷售。儘管能源終端市場疲軟，但客戶認可了該平台的價值和獨特性，這體現在新客戶的訂閱量以及為採用Lens平台的客戶提供的優惠價格上。此外，市場對Lens的未來版本表現出濃厚的興趣，我們已組建了一批開發合作夥伴，為Lens Power提供支援。憑藉伍德麥肯茲和Genscape的專有數據資產，Lens Power能夠幫助客戶最大限度地掌握清潔能源領域的投資機遇，引領能源轉型，並進一步鞏固我們在能源轉型領域的市場領先地位。我們已做好充分準備，把握全球各國和企業加大對再生能源和綠色能源投資的趨勢，我們的解決方案將有助於最高層做出這些關鍵決策。

Lens Power is part of a broader suite of solutions that we have within our Energy segment to help our customers navigate the changing ESG landscape. We are seeing a positive market response to our energy customer solutions for improved management of supply chain risk and ESG priorities like emissions benchmarking and supplier diversity programs. Not only are we helping our customers with their ESG initiatives, we have also moved forward on our own ESG agenda. In early April, we released our annual CSR report, which you can find in the Corporate Social Responsibility section of our website.

Lens Power是我們能源業務板塊一系列解決方案的一部分，旨在幫助客戶應對不斷變化的ESG環境。我們看到，市場對我們為能源客戶提供的解決方案給予了積極的反饋，這些解決方案有助於改善供應鏈風險管理，並支持諸如排放基準測試和供應商多元化計劃等ESG優先事項。我們不僅幫助客戶推進其ESG舉措，也在積極推進自身的ESG議程。 4月初，我們發布了年度企業社會責任報告，您可以在我們網站的「企業社會責任」版塊查閱。

This year's report is notable for 3 reasons. First, the Environmental section features our climate disclosure report, which speaks to the 4 pillars of TCFD: governance, risk and opportunities, risk management and metrics and targets. Our Board and senior management team are very engaged on these subjects, including climate change and climate transition, both on the risks we face, but equally important on the opportunities they present for our business. We've been helping customers understand, measure and manage risk associated with climate and weather for decades, wind storms, wildfire and flood risk, among others. And are building on a base of knowledge, data, predictive models, analytic expertise, industry-leading standards and investments that are already in play and serving our insurance and energy customer scale.

今年的報告有三個顯著特點。首先，環境部分重點介紹了我們的氣候資訊揭露報告，該報告涵蓋了氣候相關財務資訊揭露工作小組（TCFD）的四大支柱：治理、風險與機會、風險管理以及指標與目標。我們的董事會和高階管理團隊非常關注這些議題，包括氣候變遷和氣候轉型，不僅關注我們面臨的風險，也同樣關注它們為我們的業務帶來的機會。幾十年來，我們一直致力於幫助客戶了解、衡量和管理與氣候和天氣相關的風險，例如風暴、野火和洪水風險等。我們依託已有的知識、數據、預測模型、分析專長、業界領先的標準以及已投入使用的各項投資，為我們的保險和能源客戶群提供服務。

Second, we used the CSR report as the vehicle to deliver our first ever disclosure in accordance with SASB's recommendations for professional and commercial services companies. The disclosure includes baseline metrics around workforce composition, diversity, engagement and turnover. We intend to update those metrics in our CSR report each year. And finally, the CSR report calls out Verisk's approach to cybersecurity, a comprehensive document that describes our commitment and investments to strengthen data security and privacy. That commitment doesn't just exist on paper, but is reinforced through the mandatory training we conduct annually for all of our employees. We are very proud of the progress we made throughout 2020. Our Board and senior management team are very much engaged, and our entire organization is committed to continue to move forward our ESG agenda over the coming years.

其次，我們利用企業社會責任報告，首次依照SASB針對專業和商業服務公司的建議揭露了相關資訊。揭露內容包括圍繞員工組成、多元化、敬業度和人員流動率的基準指標。我們計劃每年在企業社會責任報告中更新這些指標。最後，企業社會責任報告重點介紹了Verisk的網路安全策略，這是一份全面的文件，闡述了我們為加強資料安全和隱私保護所做的承諾和投入。這項承諾並非紙上談兵，而是透過我們每年為所有員工進行的強制性培訓來強化。我們對2020年的進展感到非常自豪。我們的董事會和高階管理團隊積極參與，整個公司也致力於在未來幾年繼續推動我們的ESG議程。

I'm confident we have the right strategy and team in place to meet our long-term growth objectives. Our deep domain expertise and relationships with our customers help inform our innovation agenda. And we are treating the year 2021 as one that provides a unique set of signals on the resilience of the different parts of our company, which we are pulling into our always-active capital process to ensure that our capital is deployed into the highest return opportunities.

我相信我們擁有正確的策略和團隊，能夠實現長期成長目標。我們深厚的行業專長和與客戶的良好關係，為我們的創新議程提供了強大支撐。我們將2021年視為展現公司各部門韌性的獨特一年，並將這些訊號納入我們持續活躍的資本運作流程，以確保我們的資金投入到回報最高的投資機會中。

Now I'll turn the call over to Lee to cover our financial results.

現在我將把電話交給李，讓他來介紹我們的財務表現。

Thank you, Scott. First, I would like to bring to everyone's attention that we have posted a quarterly earnings presentation that is available on our website. Additionally, you may notice that we have a slightly new presentation of our financial statements. As Scott mentioned earlier, during the quarter, we closed on a majority investment in Whitespace Software. As a result, we now report net income and earnings per share attributable to Verisk.

謝謝Scott。首先，我想提醒大家，我們已在網站上發布了季度財報。此外，您可能已經注意到，我們的財務報表格式略有調整。正如Scott先前提到的，本季我們完成了對Whitespace Software的多數股權投資。因此，我們現在報告的淨利潤和每股收益均歸屬於Verisk。

Moving to the financial results for the first quarter. On a consolidated and GAAP basis, revenue grew 5.3% to $726 million. Net income attributable to Verisk decreased 1.8% to $169 million, while diluted GAAP earnings per share attributable to Verisk declined 1% to $1.3, reflecting a $19 million gain on dispositions in the prior year that did not reoccur.

接下來來看看第一季的財務表現。以合併報表及美國通用會計準則（GAAP）計算，營收成長5.3%至7.26億美元。歸屬於Verisk的淨利潤下降1.8%至1.69億美元，而歸屬於Verisk的稀釋後GAAP每股收益下降1%至1.3美元，這反映了上年同期出售資產獲得的1900萬美元收益在本季度並未重現。

Moving to our organic constant currency results. Adjusted for nonoperating items, as defined in the non-GAAP financial measures section of our press release, we are very pleased with our operating results, considering the continued impact from COVID-19. In the first quarter, organic constant currency revenue grew 3.4%, led by continued strength in our Insurance segment, and modest sequential improvement in our Energy segment. This quarter's performance fundamentally reflected a year-over-year comparison to a largely pre-pandemic quarter, although we began to see progress in our COVID-sensitive revenues, which improved sequentially.

接下來談談我們以固定匯率計算的有機成長績效。根據新聞稿中「非GAAP財務指標」部分定義的非經營性項目進行調整後，考慮到新冠疫情的持續影響，我們對目前的經營業績非常滿意。第一季度，以固定匯率計算的有機收入成長了3.4%，主要得益於保險業務的持續強勁成長以及能源業務的環比小幅改善。本季業績主要反映了與疫情前同期相比的同比變化，儘管我們開始看到受疫情影響較大的收入有所改善，環比增長。

Our non-COVID-sensitive revenues, as we defined at the start of the pandemic, grew approximately 4.9% on an organic constant currency basis, down from 6.5% rate in the fourth quarter, reflecting a lower level of catastrophe bond securitization activity at AIR and a higher level of impact from consolidation in the Insurance and Energy segments. We did continue to experience, as we have since the onset of the pandemic, a negative impact from COVID-19 on certain of our products and services, largely transactional in nature, which represent the balance or approximately 15% of our revenues. However, we saw an improvement as certain of these products and services returned to growth on a year-over-year basis.

根據我們在疫情初期定義的非新冠疫情敏感收入，以有機成長和固定匯率計算，本季成長約4.9%，低於第四季的6.5%。這反映出AIR的巨災債券證券化業務活動減少，以及保險和能源板塊整合帶來的影響增加。自疫情爆發以來，我們持續感受到新冠疫情對部分產品和服務（主要為交易型產品和服務，約佔總收入的15%）的負面影響。然而，隨著部分產品和服務恢復年增率，我們看到情況有所改善。

COVID-sensitive revenues declined approximately 5.9% on an organic constant currency basis during the first quarter compared to the 12.5% decline in the fourth quarter, primarily as a result of improved consulting activity in our energy sector, but also reflecting a return to growth of several products and services, particularly in the U.S.

受新冠疫情影響，第一季有機收入按固定匯率計算下降約 5.9%，而第四季度下降了 12.5%，這主要是由於能源領域的諮詢活動有所改善，但也反映出一些產品和服務恢復了增長，尤其是在美國。

Despite the impact on revenue in the first quarter, we are pleased to report that we delivered solid EBITDA growth and expanded margins as a result of effective expense management and lower travel expenses. Organic constant currency adjusted EBITDA growth was 5.2% in the first quarter, up from 4.9% growth in the fourth quarter. Total adjusted EBITDA margin for the quarter, which includes both organic and inorganic revenue and adjusted EBITDA, was 47.6% in the quarter, representing leverage across our Insurance and Energy verticals offset in part by weakness in Financial Services. This margin level includes roughly 150 basis points of benefit from lower travel expenses, but also reflects a return to a more normal pace of headcount growth and an increase in the pace of investment in our technological transformation, including our cloud transition costs.

儘管第一季營收受到影響，但我們欣喜地報告，由於有效的費用管理和差旅支出的降低，我們實現了穩健的 EBITDA 成長和利潤率提升。第一季經調整後的有機 EBITDA 成長率（以固定匯率計算）為 5.2%，高於第四季的 4.9%。本季經調整後的 EBITDA 總利潤率（包括有機和非有機營收及經調整後的 EBITDA）為 47.6%，主要得益於我們在保險和能源垂直領域的槓桿作用，但部分被金融服務領域的疲軟所抵消。此利潤率水準包含了差旅支出降低帶來的約 150 個基點的收益，同時也反映了員工人數成長速度恢復正常以及我們在技術轉型（包括雲端遷移成本）方面加大投資力度。

On that note, let's turn to our segment results on an organic constant currency basis. In the first quarter, Insurance segment revenues increased 6%, reflecting healthy growth in our industry standard insurance programs, catastrophe modeling solutions, repair cost estimating solutions and insurance software solutions. We experienced a modest benefit from storm-related revenues as a result of the ice storms in Texas and the Southeast. However, this was more than offset by a lower level of securitization revenues in our catastrophe modeling business as issuance was lower year-over-year. In addition, we experienced declines in certain transactional revenues that were negatively impacted by COVID-19 as we had very minimal COVID impact in the first quarter of 2020. Adjusted EBITDA grew 8.3% in the first quarter while margins expanded 196 basis points, demonstrating strong margin expansion despite certain revenue declines, investment in our breakout areas and increased costs associated with our cloud transition.

接下來，我們來看看以固定匯率計算的各業務板塊業績。第一季度，保險業務部門營收成長6%，主要得益於我們行業標準保險項目、災害建模解決方案、維修成本估算解決方案和保險軟體解決方案的穩健成長。受德州和東南部地區冰暴的影響，我們獲得了一些與風暴相關的收入。然而，由於災害建模業務的證券化發行量較去年同期下降，導致證券化收入減少，抵銷了上述收益。此外，部分交易收入也受到新冠疫情的負面影響，導致部分交易收入下降，而我們在2020年第一季受到的新冠疫情影響微乎其微。第一季調整後EBITDA成長8.3%，利潤率提升196個基點，顯示儘管部分營收下降、對核心業務領域進行了投資以及雲端轉型相關成本增加，利潤率仍實現了強勁成長。

Energy and Specialized Markets revenue decreased 0.6% in the first quarter due to declines in consulting and implementation projects and some modest headwinds related to consolidation in the end market. Growth in core research and environmental health and safety service revenues was offset by declines in transactional and consulting revenues. We attribute our performance to the diversification of our revenue streams into higher growth breakout areas like the energy transition and chemicals, the broad range of end markets that we serve and the strength of our relationships in the industry.

由於諮詢和實施項目減少，以及終端市場整合帶來的一些不利因素，能源和專業市場業務第一季收入下降了0.6%。核心研究和環境健康與安全服務收入的成長被交易和諮詢收入的下降所抵消。我們認為，業績成長得益於收入來源多元化，拓展至能源轉型和化學等高成長領域，以及我們服務的廣泛終端市場和我們在業界建立的穩固關係。

Adjusted EBITDA grew 6.6% in the first quarter, while margins expanded 237 basis points, reflecting continued cost discipline and the benefit of lower travel expenses. As a key partner to our energy customers, we are deeply engaged with them, and part of their most strategic and important decisions. We have a track record of managing through volatile times effectively and believe we are well positioned with our energy transition solutions as well as our Lens platform to continue to outperform the end market and help our customers navigate this broad energy transition.

第一季調整後 EBITDA 成長 6.6%，利潤率提升 237 個基點，反映了我們持續的成本控制以及差旅費用降低的效益。作為能源客戶的重要合作夥伴，我們與他們保持密切的聯繫，並參與他們最重要的策略決策。我們擁有在動盪時期有效管理的豐富經驗，並相信憑藉我們的能源轉型解決方案和 Lens 平台，我們能夠繼續超越終端市場，幫助客戶順利完成這場意義深遠的能源轉型。

Financial Services revenue declined 12.8% in the quarter, reflecting the continued impact of contract transitions that we undertook in 2020, and which will continue for the next 2 quarters as was well lower levels of project spending from our bank customers, stemming from the COVID-19 pandemic and fewer bankruptcies as a result of government support and forbearance programs. Adjusted EBITDA declined 74%, reflecting the negative impact of lower sales and a larger impact of corporate expense allocations on the segment's smaller base. We continue to make progress on our journey to transition Verisk Financial Services to a more sustainable subscription-based business. We are achieving the goals we have set for the business and have taken actions that we believe benefits the business in the long run, but are likely to continue to negatively impact our growth over the next few quarters.

本季金融服務收入下降12.8%，反映了我們在2020年進行的合約過渡工作的持續影響，這種影響將在未來兩個季度持續。此外，受新冠疫情影響，銀行客戶的專案支出水準下降，以及政府支持和延期還款計畫導致破產數量減少，也是造成收入下降的原因之一。調整後EBITDA下降74%，反映了銷售額下降的負面影響，以及企業費用分攤對該業務板塊較小基數的更大影響。我們正持續推進Verisk金融服務轉型為更永續的訂閱制業務。我們正在實現為該業務設定的目標，並已採取我們認為有利於業務長期發展的措施，但這些措施可能會在未來幾季繼續對我們的成長產生負面影響。

To that end, given the continued impacts from COVID-19 and the contract transitions, we expect to see a similar level of revenue and profit performance in the second quarter of 2021. However, as the impact of the contract transitions abate, and our COVID-sensitive revenues improve, we anticipate a stronger back half of the year performance.

鑑於新冠疫情的持續影響和合約過渡，我們預計2021年第二季的營收和利潤表現將與上半年持平。然而，隨著合約過渡的影響減弱，以及受疫情影響較大的收入有所改善，我們預計下半年業績將更加強勁。

Our reported effective tax rate was 22.5% compared to 20.8% in the prior year quarter, mostly owing to lower stock option exercises in the current period. As we have discussed, there will likely continue to be some quarterly variability related to the impact of employee stock option exercises, which depends in part on the Verisk's stock price and employee personal decisions. As a result of a tax law change in the U.K., we now believe that our full year tax rate for 2021 will be between 23% and 25%, up from the 20% to 22% we had previously provided.

本季實際稅率為22.5%，高於去年同期的20.8%，主要原因是本季股票選擇權行使數量減少。正如我們之前討論過的，員工股票選擇權行使的影響可能會持續存在一定的季度波動，這部分取決於Verisk的股價和員工的個人決策。由於英國稅法的變更，我們現在預計2021年全年稅率將在23%至25%之間，高於先前預測的20%至22%。

This U.K. legislation was passed in March and will increase the U.K. corporate tax rate to 25% from 19% previously. This U.K. tax rate increase is likely to create variability in our quarterly rates as we expect we will be subject to a onetime noncash revaluation charge in the third quarter related to a deferred tax liability when the bill is expected to become law. Our best estimate at this time is that our quarterly rate in the third quarter will be in the range of 33% to 35%, but we expect this to be primarily onetime in nature and do not anticipate a material long-term impact from this increase.

英國這項法案已於三月通過，將把英國企業所得稅稅率從先前的19%提高到25%。由於我們預計在法案生效後，第三季將產生一筆與遞延所得稅負債相關的非現金重估費用，因此英國稅率的提高可能會導致我們季度稅率出現波動。我們目前的最佳估計是，第三季稅率將在33%至35%之間，但我們預計這主要是一次性的，預計此稅率提高不會產生重大的長期影響。

Adjusted net income was $203 million and diluted adjusted EPS was $1.23 for the first quarter 2021, up 4.6% and 5.1% from the prior year, respectively. These increases reflect solid top line growth, cost discipline in the business or reduction in travel expenses as a result of COVID-19 and a lower average share count. This was offset in part by a higher effective tax rate.

2021年第一季，經調整淨利為2.03億美元，稀釋後經調整每股收益為1.23美元，分別較上年同期成長4.6%及5.1%。這些成長反映了穩健的營收成長、業務成本控制以及因新冠疫情導致的差旅費用減少和平均流通股數量下降。但部分成長被較高的實際稅率所抵銷。

Net cash provided by operating activities was $449 million for the quarter, up 24% from the prior year period, primarily due to increased customer collections and a reduction in travel payments as a result of COVID-19. Capital expenditures were $59 million for the quarter, up 12%. We continue to believe that CapEx will be in the range of $250 million to $280 million, reflecting our continued investment in our innovation agenda our technological transformation as well as the carryover of certain expenditures that were delayed in 2020 as a result of the pandemic.

本季經營活動產生的淨現金流為4.49億美元，較上年同期成長24%，主要得益於顧客收款增加以及受新冠疫情影響差旅支出減少。本季資本支出為5,900萬美元，成長12%。我們仍預期本季資本支出將在2.5億美元至2.8億美元之間，這反映了我們對創新議程和技術轉型的持續投入，以及部分因疫情在2020年延期的支出結轉。

Related to capital expenditure, we expect fixed asset depreciation and amortization will be within the range of $200 million to $215 million. However, we now forecast intangible amortization to be approximately $180 million, reflecting the impact of recent acquisitions and changes in foreign currency rates. Both depreciation and amortization elements are subject to foreign exchange variability, the timing of purchases and the completion of projects and future M&A activity.

在資本支出方面，我們預期固定資產折舊和攤提將在2億美元至2.15億美元之間。然而，由於近期收購和外匯匯率變動的影響，我們目前預測無形資產攤銷約為1.8億美元。折舊和攤提均受匯率波動、收購時機、工程完工以及未來併購活動的影響。

During the first quarter, we returned $147 million in capital to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends. In addition, in May, we repaid our 5.8% senior notes in the amount of $450 million, through a combination of cash from operations and proceeds from our credit facility. Our strategy to deliver long-term sustainable growth remains unchanged, and we believe the stability and predictability of our subscription revenues will persist. As we approach the anniversary of the onset of the pandemic, we plan to continue to provide updates on our non-COVID and COVID-sensitive revenues to offer transparency on the recovery of our business. We remain confident the COVID impacts do not represent a structural change in our fundamental growth drivers and believe that as the underlying causal factors abate with the rollout of vaccinations and the opening of global economies, we will show strong resilience in recovery.

第一季度，我們透過股票回購和分紅向股東返還了1.47億美元的資本。此外，5月份，我們透過營運現金流和信貸額度償還了4.5億美元的5.8%優先票據。我們實現長期可持續成長的策略保持不變，並相信訂閱收入的穩定性和可預測性將持續存在。隨著疫情爆發週年紀念日的臨近，我們計劃繼續更新非疫情相關收入和受疫情影響的收入數據，以提高業務復甦的透明度。我們仍然相信，新冠疫情的影響不會對我們根本的成長驅動因素造成結構性改變，並相信隨著疫苗接種的推廣和全球經濟的開放，潛在的致病因素逐漸消退，我們將展現出強大的復甦韌性。

We also have confidence in our ability to manage the cost structure effectively to protect profitability, that we would remind you that cost comparisons will be more challenging beginning in the second quarter. Taking this all together, we believe that as the COVID impacts abate, we can return to our long-term growth model of 7% organic constant currency revenue growth with core operating leverage, allowing EBITDA to grow faster than revenue, although it's difficult to predict that timing.

我們對有效管理成本結構以保障獲利能力的能力充滿信心，但同時也提醒各位，從第二季開始，成本比較將更具挑戰性。綜上所述，我們相信隨著新冠疫情影響的減弱，我們可以回歸到長期成長模式，即以核心營運槓桿為基礎，實現7%的有機固定匯率收入增長，從而使EBITDA增長速度超過收入增長速度，儘管具體時間難以預測。

We hope this provides some useful context for you, and we look forward to addressing your questions. We continue to appreciate all the support and interest in Verisk. (Operator Instructions)

希望以上資訊對您有所幫助，我們期待解答您的疑問。我們衷心感謝您對 Verisk 的支持與關注。 （操作員說明）

With that, I'll ask the operator to open the line for questions.

這樣，我就可以請接線生開通提問專線了。

(Operator Instructions) We have our first question comes from the line of Toni Kaplan from Morgan Stanley.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自摩根士丹利的東尼卡普蘭。

I was hoping, Scott, that you could give us an update on the renewables business. I know you touched on it in the prepared remarks. But I guess, how big is it now? What are the fastest-growing areas within it? And what's proprietary within the renewables and energy transition?

史考特，我原本希望你能給我們介紹一下再生能源產業的最新情況。我知道你在事先準備好的演講稿中提到過。但我還是想問一下，這個產業現在規模有多大？其中成長最快的領域是什麼？再生能源和能源轉型領域有哪些專有技術？

Right. So what we do in the renewables area, Toni, is across a very broad front. So it is everything from solar to wind to biomass. What differentiates us is a couple of things. One is we believe that we actually have unique data about really the supply side of those industries. In addition to that, we're able to relate the developments in that part of the energy ecosystem to the rest of the energy ecosystem. And that's really critical because that is what all the players in the energy space want to do, including the traditional hydrocarbon-based players. They are all very, very interested in how they modified who they are in order to move into this future. And then on top of all of that, we believe that we have the best platform to analytic environment going in Lens, which permits us to put all of this wonderful content into our customers' decisioning workflows in a really easy-to-consume, and we believe, a differentiated way.

沒錯。東尼，我們在再生能源領域的工作涵蓋範圍非常廣泛，從太陽能、風能到生質能，無所不包。我們的獨特之處在於兩點。首先，我們相信我們擁有關於這些產業供應端的獨特數據。此外，我們能夠將能源生態系統中這一部分的發展與整個能源生態系統的發展連結起來。這一點至關重要，因為這是能源領域所有參與者，包括傳統的碳氫化合物能源企業，都希望實現的。他們都非常關注如何調整自身以適應未來。除此之外，我們相信我們擁有目前最好的分析平台——Lens，它使我們能夠以非常易於理解且獨具特色的方式，將所有這些寶貴的資訊融入客戶的決策流程中。

Next question comes from the line of Manav Patnaik from Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的馬納夫·帕特奈克。

I was just wondering, as things are opening up here, and you guys get a little bit more visibility, just longer term, I guess I wanted to just understand how you guys think about that 7% growth target for your entire company. I was just curious like if anything has changed, if you need to kind of revisit that target?

我只是想問，隨著情況逐漸好轉，你們也獲得了更多關注，從長遠來看，我想了解一下你們對公司7%的成長目標有什麼看法。我只是好奇，有沒有什麼變化，你們是否需要重新評估這個目標？

Yes. Nothing has changed in our perspective on that, Manav. One of the things that -- and I sort of referenced this in my comments upfront, but we are watching very carefully the results we're producing. In 2021, both the -- what we deemed the COVID-sensitive revenues also the non-COVID-sensitive revenues, and those would relate more to the subscription products that we have. And actually, we see good progress in the performance of those. And actually, they really have been the most steady part of our performance over the last several quarters. And we also referenced our pipelines, both renewals as well as new product -- new sales opportunities.

是的，馬納夫，我們對此的看法沒有任何改變。我之前也提到過，我們正在密切關注業績。 2021年，我們把受疫情影響的收入和不受疫情影響的收入都納入考量，後者主要與我們的訂閱產品相關。事實上，我們看到這些收入的業績進展良好。而且，在過去的幾個季度裡，它們一直是我們業績中最穩定的部分。我們也提到了我們的銷售管道，包括續約和新產品/新銷售機會。

And as I mentioned in my comments upfront, we have some of the strongest pipelines we've ever had. And our focus is so very definitely on subscription-based solution. So the context for my answer to your question is, that's where we're focused. Those are in good shape. They have been in good shape through the pandemic, and we think that they will remain on that track going forward.

正如我之前提到的，我們擁有史上最強勁的銷售管道。而且，我們的重點無疑是訂閱制解決方案。所以，當我回答你的問題時，重點就在這裡。這些業務發展良好，即使在疫情期間也保持良好勢頭，我們相信未來仍會繼續保持這種勢頭。

And Manav, it's Lee. If I could just add on to that. One thing that I think gave us confidence on the resilience of the growth rates was the overall performance of our non-COVID-sensitive revenues through this period, that we maintained stability there. And in a lot of cases, given some of the value of our data and workflow-oriented products in this more remote environment. In some ways, I think as we come out of this, it has accelerated some opportunities for us for the deployment of our data and analytics into these new environments.

我是李，我是馬納夫。我再補充一點。我認為，讓我們對成長率的韌性充滿信心的一個重要因素是，在此期間，我們非疫情敏感型收入的整體表現保持穩定。而且在很多情況下，考慮到我們面向數據和工作流程的產品在這種遠距辦公環境下的價值，我認為，從某種程度上來說，疫情加速了我們將數據和分析技術部署到這些新環境中的機會。

Okay. Understood. And then just on the breakout area investments. Lee, I think you've talked about kind of the ROIC and metrics and so forth, before. But I was just curious from a -- what time parameters do you put when you even make those decisions? Like how much of long term investment, or do you have certain criteria that it has to return within a couple of years, et cetera? I was just curious if you could talk a little bit about that.

好的，明白了。然後是關於突破性領域的投資。李，我想你之前已經談到過投資報酬率（ROIC）之類的指標。但我很好奇——你在做這些決定時會設定哪些時間參數？例如，長期投資的比例是多少？或者你有某些標準，例如必須在幾年內獲得回報等等？我只是想請你談談這方面的問題。

Yes. Lee, that's kind of into our work papers on how we look at the many investment opportunities we've got. So maybe if you want to talk to that.

是的，李，這涉及到我們關於如何評估眾多投資機會的工作文件。所以，如果你想談談這方面的內容，可以聯絡我。

Yes. Manav, thanks for the question. And I think as you can appreciate that we -- when we look at that investment portfolio, we think of it in that regard where we have a wide range of products with different time horizons and different levels of kind of kind of risk associated with them. Some earlier-stage business opportunities, some later stage. We do try to manage those naturally in the -- overall to deliver return clearly in excess of our cost of capital and for higher risk, smaller projects at a level well above that at some premium, reflecting that higher risk.

是的，馬納夫，謝謝你的提問。我想你應該能理解，當我們審視投資組合時，我們會考慮到它涵蓋了各種不同期限和不同風險等級的產品。有些是早期階段的商業機會，有些是後期階段。我們會努力在整體上進行管理，以實現遠高於資本成本的回報；對於風險較高的小型項目，我們會支付一定的溢價，以反映其更高的風險，從而獲得遠高於資本成本的回報。

And I would say that on average, this, of course, is going to vary from project to project. But we're generally looking to achieve those types of returns on a 3- to 4-year time frame in order to get to an acceptable return with upside beyond that. That's the general parameters of the portfolio. And I think we also want to make it clear that, that is not just internal investment, but our external investment in M&A. We are evaluating the utilization of capital against both of those investment opportunities. Certainly, on the internal investment, the opportunities to leverage our existing assets and our position in infrastructure are substantially -- enable us to deliver higher returns we expect, but on lower investments.

當然，平均而言，具體情況會因項目而異。但我們通常希望在3到4年內實現這些回報，從而獲得可接受的收益，並在此基礎上獲得更大的成長空間。這是投資組合的整體參數。此外，我們還要明確指出，這不僅包括內部投資，也包括我們在併購方面的外部投資。我們正在評估資本在這兩類投資機會中的運用。就內部投資而言，利用我們現有的資產和基礎設施優勢，我們能夠以較低的投資金額獲得更高的預期回報。

On the M&A front, they are larger investments from a scale standpoint, but we are clearly focusing on how we are adding value to those. And the success that we've had with the life -- the FAST acquisition, with the Genscape acquisition, with the acquisition in our 3D area, all are evidence of our ability to deliver value, either through reduced costs or improved functionality of those businesses. So hopefully, that gives you some context in how we look at both the internal and the external investment, and some of the benchmarks that we use.

在併購方面，從規模上看，這些投資更大，但我們顯然更關注如何為這些投資創造價值。我們在生命科學領域的成功——例如對FAST、Genscape以及3D領域的收購——都證明了我們有能力創造價值，無論是透過降低成本還是提升業務功能。希望以上內容能幫助您了解我們如何看待內部和外部投資，以及我們使用的一些衡量標準。

Our next question comes from the line of David Togut from Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 David Togut。

Bridging to Manav's question, what are your current capital allocation priorities among acquisitions and share repurchase when you evaluate those 2 at current prices and valuations? And then third would be dividend growth.

回到馬納夫的問題，在當前價格和估值下，您評估收購和股票回購這兩項投資時，目前的資本配置優先順序是什麼？第三個優先順序是股息成長。

Yes. So I'm glad you added that last bit, David, because we have multiple forms for returning capital to shareholders. But even before that, I would really emphasize investment into the business to build these engines of growth. We -- you hear us talking all the time about platforms analytic environments. They are really the source of so many forms of goodness in terms of value for customers. And a result of them is that we have much stickier relationships, which are just that much more recurrent. So if I was to prioritize our use of capital, I would actually start with internal investment, which is a genuine focal point.

是的。所以我很高興你補充了最後一點，大衛，因為我們有多種方式向股東返還資本。但即便在此之前，我還是要強調對業務的投資，以建立這些成長引擎。你常聽到我們談論平台分析環境。它們確實是為客戶創造許多價值的來源。而它們的出現也讓我們與客戶建立了更牢固、更持久的關係。因此，如果讓我優先考慮資本的使用，我會先考慮內部投資，這才是真正的重點。

We're very happy to return capital to shareholders. We have a long track record of doing that, and we feel very good about that. And with respect to M&A, Lee was already talking about kind of how we look at it. I mean it's not as if we've earmarked some number of dollars or percentage of total capital available to go into M&A. It's more a question, with that third leg, of whether or not the opportunity is compelling and meets our return hurdles. And we are definitely emphasizing that which -- in combination with what -- who we already are, the whole becomes greater than the sum of the parts.

我們非常樂意向股東返還資本。我們在這方面有著悠久的記錄，並且對此感到非常滿意。至於併購，Lee 之前已經談到了我們看待併購的方式。我的意思是，我們並沒有專門撥出一定數額的資金或一定比例的可用資本用於併購。更重要的是，在併購的第三個方面，我們需要判斷併購機會是否具有吸引力，是否能夠滿足我們的回報預期。我們強調的是，結合我們自身的優勢，整體效益將大於各部分總和。

And David, it's interesting that the -- and it's not uncommon for folks to make a comparison between share repurchases and M&A. I will tell you that we think of it differently in that. We view M&A as more akin, and evaluate it relative to our internal investment because both of them are capital investments that we're making to generate return for shareholders both of those are subject to our return thresholds that we think are necessary to create value. And then if we are unable to find return opportunities in either of those. And I want to emphasize to Scott's point, we think there -- one of the strengths of Verisk is the breadth and the depth of opportunity for us to invest internally in new products at very high incremental returns across a broad range of client-driven opportunities in our industry sectors.

大衛，很有意思的是──人們常常會把股票回購和併購相提並論。但我要告訴你，我們對此的看法不同。我們認為併購更類似於股票回購，並將其與我們的內部投資進行比較，因為兩者都是我們為了給股東創造回報而進行的資本投資，兩者都受到我們認為創造價值所必需的回報門檻的限制。如果我們無法在股票回購或併購中找到回報機會，那麼…我想強調斯科特的觀點，我們認為——Verisk 的優勢之一在於，我們擁有廣泛而深入的機會，可以在我們各個行業領域中，透過客戶驅動的各種機會，投資於能夠帶來極高增量回報的新產品。

But similarly, we see other opportunities on the M&A front. If we don't see acceptable returns in either of those ventures, then we view share repurchases as with dividends, an opportunity to return capital that we can't create value from in terms of higher returns. And then finally, with regard to dividends, the -- as you have seen, we have established the pattern of increasing that dividend. That becomes -- that remains subject to the Board's view on the dividend increase, but there is a recognition that companies that have demonstrated an ability to deliver consistent growth in the dividend over time, are rewarded for that discipline.

但同樣地，我們在併購方面也看到了其他機會。如果這兩個項目都無法帶來可接受的回報，那麼我們會像派發股息一樣，將股票回購視為一種返還資本的機會，以彌補我們無法從中創造更高回報的資本。最後，關於股息，正如您所看到的，我們已經建立了提高股息的模式。股息成長最終取決於董事會的意見，但我們也意​​識到，那些能夠長期維持股息持續成長的公司，會因其這種自律而獲得回報。

We believe that it has introduced a valuable additional component to our investor base as more yield-oriented investors that are looking for both growth and yield have been very additive to our shareholder base. And so we think that, that is a useful additional component in our capital return strategy.

我們相信，這為我們的投資者基礎引入了一個重要的新組成部分，因為更多追求成長和收益的收益型投資者極大地豐富了我們的股東基礎。因此，我們認為這是我們資本回報策略中一個有益的補充。

We have our next question comes from the line of George Tong from Goldman Sachs line.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛集團的George Tong。

Financial Services revenues are continuing to see the impact of contract transitions, which you note will continue for the next 2 quarters. Is it possible to parse out how much impact is coming from contract transitions? And how much is due to core reduced spending from banks and fewer bankruptcies?

金融服務收入持續受到合約過渡的影響，您提到這種情況將持續兩個季度。能否分析一下其中有多少影響來自合約過渡？又有多少影響來自銀行核心支出減少和破產數量下降？

Yes. George, thanks for the question. We estimate that the impact of the contract transitions in the first quarter was approximately 2/3 of the revenue decline that we saw on a year-over-year basis. And as you know, this is something that will cycle through. We believe that those contract transitions, I would just remind folks represented in part a rebalancing of our relationship with several of those contracts, shifting in our general strategy to move from less upfront revenues to more revenues extended over the relationship. So it reflects that. There is some upside in future periods that balance that impact. But the short answer is, in the quarter, it was about 2/3 of the impact. And as you mentioned, we expect that impact to be -- to follow for the next 2 quarters.

是的，喬治，謝謝你的提問。我們估計，第一季合約變更的影響大約占我們同比收入下降的三分之二。如你所知，這種情況會週期性地過去。我認為，這些合約變更——我還要提醒大家——部分反映了我們與部分合約方關係的重新調整，以及我們整體策略的轉變，即從減少前期收入轉向增加長期收入。所以，這反映了這一點。未來幾季的一些成長潛力可以抵消這種影響。但簡而言之，第一季的影響約佔總影響的三分之二。正如你所提到的，我們預計這種影響將在接下來的兩個季度持續存在。

Got it. Very helpful. And just a follow up. On the cost side, you mentioned that cost comparisons will be tougher in 2Q. How much in expenses do you expect to come back in the coming quarters?

明白了，很有幫助。還有一個後續問題。關於成本方面，您提到第二季的成本比較會比較困難。您預計未來幾季會有多少支出恢復正常？

So George, thanks for the question. I appreciate what you're looking for. It's hard to quantify. I guess I would approach it this way. One way to think of it is, clearly, we had a benefit from T&E, the reduction that the -- elimination of travel. And we have described what the impact is from a margin standpoint of that, for instance, 150 basis points in this quarter. And we would expect that we would continue to see that benefit. And so we will see an increase in T&E expenses, but I think that's going to be a gradual increase over time. The other element is going to be compensation and/or incentive compensation, in particular, where we're going to see a more normalized level.

喬治，謝謝你的提問。我明白你想要了解什麼。這很難量化。我想我會這樣來看待這個問題。一種理解方式是，很明顯，我們從差旅費用中受益，因為差旅的減少——或者說是取消差旅——帶來了收益。我們已經從利潤率的角度描述了這種影響，例如，本季利潤率提高了150個基點。我們預計這種收益會持續下去。因此，差旅費用將會增加，但我認為這是一個漸進的成長過程。另一個因素是薪酬，特別是激勵性薪酬，我們預期這部分薪酬將恢復到更正常的水平。

As we saw in 2020, the responsiveness of our compensation, particularly incentive compensation, flexed down. We are expecting a more normalized return, so we'll see some increase in that, plus we are also beginning to normalize headcount as we see demand from the businesses to support their overall growth. So there are a lot of factors. But as we move through 2021, one way to think about it is in reference to 2020. 2020, we saw the revenue impact, but we saw expenses decline more than the revenue impact, driving EBITDA growth of nearly 10% over that period.

正如我們在2020年所見，我們的薪酬體系，尤其是激勵性薪酬，其反應速度有所下降。我們預計回報將更加正常化，因此薪酬水準會有所回升。此外，隨著業務部門的需求增加，我們也開始逐步調整員工人數，以支持其整體成長。因此，影響因素眾多。展望2021年，我們可以參考2020年的情況來思考這個問題。 2020年，我們看到了收入受到的影響，但支出下降的幅度超過了收入下降的幅度，從而推動了同期EBITDA增長近10%。

In 2021, I think we're going to see a recovery in revenue. But as we look at those comparisons, we will see higher expense growth. We still expect to be able to deliver EBITDA growth, but it will be driven by the pace of expense growth, fortunately which remains within our control. So our hope is that we will be able to manage that expense growth on the T&E, on the compensation front in terms of headcount growth in order to continue to deliver growth, although not naturally at the same level that we were able to achieve in 2020.

我認為2021年營收將會復甦。但從對比來看，支出成長速度也會更快。我們仍然預期能夠實現EBITDA成長，但這將取決於支出成長的速度，幸運的是，這仍然在我們的控制範圍之內。因此，我們希望能夠控制差旅費和薪酬方面的支出成長，並透過控制員工人數成長來維持成長，儘管成長速度自然無法達到2020年的水準。

Another way to think of it is that we do expect that, that dynamic will drive some reduction in margin, but we still are expecting to be able to retain, as we've said in the past, some meaningful level of the efficiencies that we achieved in 2020. I hope that gives you some direction towards your question, George.

換個角度來說，我們預期這種動態變化會導致利潤率下降，但我們仍然期望能夠像之前所說的那樣，保持2020年取得的相當可觀的效率水準。喬治，希望這能對你的問題有幫助。

We have our next question comes from the line of Alex Kramm from UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Alex Kramm。

Maybe just starting on the Energy business. I'm not sure if I missed it, but clearly, trends have gotten better. You sound pretty optimistic about energy transition and pipelines here. Does that basically mean you think the business has bottomed? Or are you still cautious in terms of the next few quarters, maybe the broader cyclical impact could still be negative?

或許我才剛開始關注能源業務。我不確定是不是我錯過了什麼，但很明顯，趨勢已經好轉。你對能源轉型和管道建設聽起來相當樂觀。這是否意味著你認為該業務已經觸底？或者你對未來幾季仍然持謹慎態度，認為更廣泛的周期性影響可能仍然會是負面的？

I'll just go back at something that we've said for a long period of time, which is for our business in the energy sector, in general, to perform, we just need a normal environment. We don't need a roaring commodity price. We just need a normal kind of environment. And our view is that, that's more or less where the system has gotten to.

我只想重申我們長期以來一直強調的一點，那就是，就我們整個能源產業的業務而言，我們只需要一個正常的環境。我們不需要大宗商品價格飆升，我們只需要一個正常的環境。而我們認為，目前的體係或多或少已經達到了這種狀態。

And I would say, Alex, I think we're encouraged by what we are experiencing, both in the sales pipeline and in the consulting pipeline. We're also encouraged by the receptivity of our clients to the Lens platform as they are interacting with it. And as they're using it. They are clearly seeing the value that we are adding to the data and the research products that we've provided before. So clearly, there is a lot of risk ahead as we manage through the pandemic. But we are seeing, we think, very constructive signs based upon the level of engagement we have so far.

我想說，Alex，我認為我們目前在銷售管道和諮詢管道方面都取得了令人鼓舞的進展。客戶對Lens平台的接受度也讓我們倍感振奮，他們在使用過程中展現了良好的互動體驗。他們顯然看到了我們為先前提供的數據和研究產品增添的價值。當然，在應對疫情的過程中，我們仍面臨著許多風險。但就目前為止的客戶參與度而言，我們看到了許多正面的訊號。

Okay. That's fair. And then secondarily, a little bit more holistic question. But Lee, obviously, the Energy and the Financials business started reporting to you, I think it's been now 3 months. Not a long time, but 3 months nonetheless. And I think last quarter, when I asked about the business mix, Scott found it a little bit more open to holistically review the portfolio. So just wondering, Lee and maybe Scott, too, as you've maybe dug deeper into those businesses, any early findings, any areas for improvement or anything where you're saying, hey, this is maybe not as good of a fit than we thought historically. So any updates would be helpful on that front.

好的，這很合理。其次，我想問一個更全面的問題。 Lee，能源和金融業務顯然已經開始向你報告了，我想大概三個月了。時間不算長，但畢竟也三個月了。我記得上個季度，當我問到業務組合時，Scott 覺得他更願意從整體上審視投資組合。所以我想問 Lee，或許 Scott 也是一樣，隨著你們對這些業務的深入了解，是否有任何初步發現，是否有任何需要改進的地方，或者是否有任何情況讓你們覺得，嘿，這可能不如我們之前認為的那樣契合？這方面的任何最新進展都將很有幫助。

Why don't I start with -- Lee, I think the question is kind of directed to you and your oversight. But I'll just say that there is a playbook at Verisk, which when it is in place, works very, very well. And that playbook is really centered on creating what we call platforms analytic environments and analytic objects, which become industry standard analyzed output. And the more that we feature those in the mix of what we do, in any part of Verisk, the business becomes very sticky, very resilient, grows well, represents a lot of value for customers.

不如我先說——李，我覺得這個問題其實是問你和你的職責的。但我只想說，Verisk 有一套行之有效的策略，一旦落實到位，效果就非常好。這套策略的核心在於創建我們稱為平台分析環境和分析物件的系統，這些系統最終會成為業界標準的分析輸出。我們在 Verisk 的任何業務環節中，越是注重這些，業務就越能保持高黏性、高韌性，發展越穩健，也越能為客戶創造巨大價值。

And I'll just say that -- and I'm going to pick Financial Services, in particular. The focus here at the moment is, first of all, make sure that we capture all the COVID-sensitive revenues as the environment changes. Make sure that we capture all those revenues back into the mix, one; and two, is the continued development of the platforms inside of Verisk Financial that will represent that same kind of Verisk ways, the Verisk model really for doing business. And that's really what we're focused on in the near term. And we're expected about both of those things as it relates to the business. So that, with respect to VFS in particular. Lee, I don't know if you want to add anything to that.

我只想說——我特別想談談金融服務領域。目前的重點首先是確保我們能夠隨著環境的變化，將所有受新冠疫情影響的收入收回。確保我們能夠把所有這些收入都重新納入收入組成；其次，是繼續開發Verisk Financial內部的平台，這些平台將體現Verisk一貫的經營方式，也就是Verisk的商業模式。這正是我們近期工作的重點。而且，就業務而言，我們對這兩方面都有很高的期望。所以，就VFS而言，Lee，我不知道你是否還有什麼要補充的。

Yes. I do. Alex, thanks for the question. And I would say just briefly, it is still early. I'm spending a lot of time with both the Financial Services and the Energy business. And really drilling into to complement the kind of the top-down view from a financials, the bottoms-up focus on products, on clients, on people to understand the underlying economics of the business. And one, I think, observation that it's worth pointing out is that, of course, what's happening at those businesses is not wholly represented in what you see within the quarter.

是的，我確實在做這件事。 Alex，謝謝你的提問。我想簡單說一下，現在還處於早期階段。我目前花了很多時間在金融服務和能源業務上，深入研究，以補充財務方面自上而下的視角，並從產品、客戶和員工的角度自下而上地了解業務的根本經濟狀況。我認為值得指出的一點是，這些業務的實際營運情況當然無法完全體現在季度財報中。

We've talked about the contract transitions that, while clearly a negative impact within this quarter, represent very strong progress in the objective that we have. And the management team there has been moving very conservatively towards improving that base. And I continue to work with them to evaluate what that broader opportunity is and what the sustainable growth rate for profitability and value is over the long term, as I do with the Energy business. So we're actively engaged in it. I would just ask for everyone's patience as we work through that and evaluate the business as a whole rather than focusing on the specific quarter's results. But that's what we've been doing.

我們之前討論過合約過渡的問題，雖然這顯然對本季業績造成了負面影響，但卻代表著我們在實現既定目標方面取得了非常顯著的進展。管理團隊一直在非常謹慎地推進基礎的改善。我將繼續與他們合作，評估更廣泛的機遇，以及長期獲利能力和價值的可持續成長率，就像我對待能源業務一樣。所以我們正在積極推動這項工作。我懇請大家耐心等待，我們會努力完成這項工作，並對整個業務進行評估，而不是僅僅關注本季的業績。這就是我們一直在做的事情。

We have our next question comes from the line of Greg Peters from Raymond James.

下一個問題來自 Raymond James 的 Greg Peters。

I was wondering if you could provide some updated views on the changing competitive dynamics in the insurance space, especially when we hear about or hearing more about the success of these software companies like Duck Creek and Guidewire. It seems like these companies are selling competitive -- or competing services. We hear them talking about their claims management platform, their underwriting platforms, their reinsurance capabilities. It seems to be gathering some momentum in the insurance vertical. So maybe you can provide some color around market share for Verisk versus these other companies, or how you're working with these companies?

我想請您就保險領域不斷變化的競爭格局提供一些最新見解，尤其是在我們經常聽到或聽到像 Duck Creek 和 Guidewire 這樣的軟體公司取得成功之後。這些公司似乎都在銷售具有競爭力的服務。我們經常聽到他們談論他們的理賠管理平台、承保平台和再保險功能。這些服務在保險領域似乎正在蓬勃發展。所以，您能否介紹一下 Verisk 與其他公司相比的市場份額，或者您是如何與這些公司合作的？

Well, do you want to take that one?

那你想選那個嗎？

Sure. Well, first of all, thanks for the question. I think what our customers are looking for, these are insurance customers. They are looking for an interconnected ecosystem, a way to pull information, a way to pull and process in a seamless way. So we are very tightly aligned with Duck Creek and Guidewire. As an example, all of our ISO lost cost of rules mean the way we codify bricks is inside of both Dug Creek and Guidewire. We pull -- and customers are able to pull underwriting information from us through those 2 platforms. [ClaimSearch], same thing. We are integrated in a way that we are partners.

當然。首先，感謝您的提問。我認為我們的客戶，也就是保險客戶，他們想要的是一個互聯互通的生態系統，一種能夠無縫獲取和處理資訊的方式。因此，我們與 Duck Creek 和 Guidewire 的合作非常緊密。例如，我們所有的 ISO 損失成本規則都整合在 Duck Creek 和 Guidewire 中。我們透過這兩個平台取得核保訊息，客戶也可以透過這兩個平台取得核保資訊。 [ClaimSearch] 也是如此。我們以合作夥伴的身份與他們緊密合作。

So there is a way that we partner very effectively. But at the same time, the world is heading towards analytics, so Dug Creek, Guidewire, as an example are doing more analytics, probably more focused on the individual insurer information as they process the claim, what it looked like over the last quarter. How the rates looked for that insurer last quarter. Where we tend to focus is we have this aggregated view of the industry. So our analytics is more benchmark, compared to other peers, it's an industry view. Let me also remind you that as we think about software, we're becoming more software intense. So Sequel software has been moving into United States, becoming certainly more a global player beyond the London market. So I think there is some more overlap with the 2, but we continue to work together to satisfy customers.

因此，我們有一種非常有效的合作方式。但與此同時，世界正朝著數據分析的方向發展，例如 Dug Creek 和 Guidewire 等公司都在進行更多的數據分析，可能更側重於單個保險公司在處理理賠時的信息，以及上個季度的情況，例如該保險公司上個季度的費率情況。而我們則更關注整個產業的整體情況。因此，與其他同業相比，我們的分析更具基準性，更著重於產業視角。我也想提醒大家，隨著我們對軟體的關注度不斷提高，我們也越來越依賴軟體。例如，Sequel Software 已進軍美國市場，並逐漸成為倫敦市場以外的全球企業。因此，我認為這兩者之間存在一些重疊，但我們會繼續攜手合作，以滿足客戶的需求。

So hopefully, that's responsive to the software play. And I'll just highlight because of the nature of our industry standard programs, we're integrated with almost every policy, even vendor. We are kind of across the board. So we'll continue to do that to share our content with any insurer or reinsurer that needs it.

所以，希望這能對軟體開發有正面作用。我還要強調一點，由於我們行業標準程序的特性，我們幾乎與所有保單，甚至供應商都實現了整合。我們的覆蓋範圍非常廣泛。因此，我們將繼續這樣做，與任何需要的保險公司或再保險公司分享我們的內容。

Got it. And then my follow-up question would just be pivot back to some comments I think we made earlier regarding just sort of the long-term targets around organic revenue growth and then EBITDA, 7% and then EBITDA growing a little bit faster. I was wondering if you have a similar viewpoint or the Board has a similar viewpoint around free cash flow.

明白了。接下來我想問的是，我們之前討論過一些關於長期目標的問題，例如有機收入成長和 EBITDA（7%），以及 EBITDA 成長速度更快一些。我想知道您或董事會對自由現金流的看法是否類似。

Yes. I don't see, over the long term, a significant gap between the EBITDA, the revenue and EBITDA growth rates and our cash flow. The 2 should be fairly consistent. Obviously, there are a lot of variables that from a timing standpoint, may influence that. But as kind of core growth rates, I don't see a substantial difference there.

是的。從長遠來看，我認為 EBITDA、營收和 EBITDA 成長率以及我們的現金流之間不會存在顯著差距。這兩者應該相當穩定。當然，從時間角度來看，有很多變數可能會影響這一點。但作為核心成長率，我認為它們之間不會有實質差異。

We have our next question comes from the line of Andrew Jeffrey from Truist Securities.

下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Andrew Jeffrey。

As we see the greater digitization of insurance and more life cycle solutions, I wonder if Verisk sees an opportunity in payments as far as supporting disbursements from the carriers to the insured.

隨著保險業數位化程度的提高和生命週期解決方案的增多，我想知道 Verisk 是否看到了支付領域的機遇，例如支持保險公司向被保險人支付款項。

So thank you for the question, and thank you for the -- look forward. We have recently introduced Verisk Pay, and we do believe that in this kind of world of interconnectivity and automation, electronic payments are going to factor into that. The place where we started was places where we thought we can neatly integrate into our solutions. So think of our Xactware solution, which is representative of repair cost estimates and payment of property damage. And also in the world of real estate where we do some similar work, and we feel that those electronic payments could facilitate things for our customers. We're working with a big partner, Fiserv, and we look to extend the use cases beyond claims and into some premium and other places like subrogation, where we think that our insurance customers would benefit.

感謝您的提問，也感謝您的展望。我們最近推出了 Verisk Pay，我們相信，在如今互聯互通和自動化程度越來越高的世界裡，電子支付將成為不可或缺的一部分。我們最初的目標是找到一些能夠完美融入我們現有解決方案的領域。例如，我們的 Xactware 解決方案就專門用於維修成本估算和財產損失賠償。在房地產領域，我們也進行類似的工作，我們認為電子支付能為我們的客戶帶來便利。我們正在與大型合作夥伴 Fiserv 攜手合作，希望將應用場景擴展到理賠之外，例如保費支付以及代位求償等其他領域，我們相信我們的保險客戶將從中受益。

And our next question comes from the line of Jeff Meuler from Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自 Baird 公司的 Jeff Meuler。

I want to ask about Insurance, and I know the growth rate is kind of in the typical pretty tight range, but it decelerated. So I heard a call out on cat bond issuance. I think I also heard something about some end market consolidation. To me, the cat bond issuance is just more naturally variable quarter-to-quarter. The consolidation would be something that would take longer to recover from. So just any help parsing out between those factors?

我想問一下保​​險業的情況。我知道目前的成長率基本上處於相對較低的區間，但成長速度已經放緩。我聽說有人提到巨災債券的發行。我還聽說終端市場可能出現整合。在我看來，巨災債券的發行量本身就具有季度波動性。而整合帶來的衝擊則需要更長時間才能恢復。所以，能否請您幫忙分析這些因素的影響？

And then on the growth driver side, is ISO pricing this calendar year similar to prior calendar years? And I heard you on pipeline, Scott. I guess how is pipeline conversion and bookings, especially for those strategically important platformed analytic environments and analytic objects.

那麼，在成長驅動因素方面，今年的ISO定價是否與往年類似？還有，我聽到了你關於銷售管道的討論，Scott。我想了解一下銷售管道的轉換率和訂單量如何，特別是那些具有策略意義的平台分析環境和分析對象。

Yes. So maybe I can start at the top, but Mark, you should come in real quick on -- especially the first part of Jeff's question. Thanks for the questions, Jeff. Yes. I mean the -- most of the selling effort goes where we have the priority, and the priority is on these -- just as you said, just the platforms analytic environments and the analytic objects. So that is the majority of the pipeline. And so all those comments about contract length, stretching out and the depth of the pipeline that applies fully to that part of the product suite. So there's no real differentiation there.

是的。或許我可以從頭開始，但馬克，你最好快速回答一下——尤其是傑夫問題的第一部分。謝謝你的提問，傑夫。是的。我的意思是——大部分銷售工作都投入到我們優先考慮的領域，而優先考慮的領域正是這些——正如你所說，就是平台、分析環境和分析對象。所以這佔據了銷售管道的大部分。因此，所有關於合約期限、延長銷售週期以及銷售管道深度的評論都完全適用於這部分產品。所以這方面並沒有什麼真正的差別。

When you look quarter -- when you look year-over-year on cat bond issuance, Q1 '20 was a strong quarter. Q1 '21 was a less strong quarter. We pay a lot of attention to that. Cat bond issuance has picked up since the first quarter. So we don't see anything different in the environment. It was just really kind of moment in time.

如果以季或比來看巨災債券發行量，2020 年第一季表現強勁，而 2021 年第一季則略顯疲軟。我們對此非常關注。自第一季以來，巨災債券發行量已回升。因此，我們認為市場環境並沒有變化，這只是當時的個別現象。

Mark, anything you want to add on that?

馬克，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

The only thing I'll go to is some of our traditional ISO information. And that is, again, rock solid with customers. If you were to look at the way we kind of think about it, just remember, we're taking a long-term view. We would prefer to gather new sales from new solutions from customers as opposed to kind of have artificially high price increases. So I think we remain pretty modest and kind of how the way we handle pricing for ISO. And you are correct, we did highlight some industry consolidation, which doesn't necessarily -- 1 plus 1 doesn't equal 1, but sometimes equals like about 1.8 in the way some of our pricing algorithms work. So that was a bit of a headwind for the year. Yes.

我唯一會提到的就是我們傳統的ISO資訊。而且，這些資訊在客戶那裡一直都很可靠。如果你想了解我們的思路，請記住，我們著眼於長遠。我們更傾向於透過向客戶提供新的解決方案來獲得新銷售額，而不是人為地大幅提價。所以我認為，我們在ISO定價方面一直保持著相當穩健的態度。你說得對，我們確實強調了一些行業整合，但這並不意味著——1加1不一定等於1，在我們的一些定價演算法中，有時甚至會等於1.8左右。所以，這確實是今年的一個不利因素。是的。

Yes. And no change to the pricing algorithm itself in 2021.

是的。 2021年定價演算法本身不會有任何變化。

No. No.

不。不。

Got it. And then a question on the expense management approach in Financial Services. It seems like revenue is kind of rebasing lower for a period of time. And I think you said that Q2 profitability should be similar to Q1, which was fairly depressed, I guess, in my eyes. So are you taking expenses out of the business? Or does it need to start growing again to start getting margins back up?

明白了。接下來我想問一個關於金融服務業費用管理方法的問題。看起來收入似乎在一段時間內有所下調。我記得您說過第二季的獲利能力應該和第一季差不多，而第一季在我看來相當低迷。所以您是在削減業務支出嗎？還是說需要先恢復成長才能提高利潤率？

Yes. Thanks, Jeff, and certainly understand the questions. So on the revenue front, we naturally have that impact of the contract in transitions. A part of that are contracts that are not there going forward. But as I indicated, there also is a component where revenue has shifted into future periods. So it's not a -- I wouldn't describe it as a complete rebasing or elimination of that. But the other factor are some of the COVID-sensitive revenues that we have seen the impact. We've talked about bankruptcy. We've talked about spending on the analytics. We're actually seeing some stronger improvement on the spendings on the analytics as things open up. So hopefully, if that continues, we'll see strength in that regard. And of course, we're also watching the bankruptcy very carefully. And then the overall performance of the banks, which are doing well, and hopefully, that translates into greater opportunities on the analytics and the consulting front.

是的，謝謝傑夫，我完全理解你的問題。在收入方面，合約過渡的影響自然不容忽視。一部分合約已經終止。但正如我之前提到的，還有一部分收入轉移到了未來的週期。所以，我不會把它描述為完全的重新調整或消除。另一個因素是一些受新冠疫情影響的收入。我們之前討論過破產問題，也討論過分析方面的支出。隨著經濟的逐步開放，我們看到分析的支出確實有所改善。希望這種勢頭能夠持續下去，我們在這方面能夠看到成長。當然，我們也密切關注破產情況。此外，銀行的整體表現也不錯，希望這能轉化為分析和諮詢領域的更多機會。

On the expense front, yes, in the quarter, we had probably a heavier load of expense than we typically have. And so looking ahead, we would anticipate not as heavy an expense impact. And we are looking at making adjustments from an expense management standpoint that will help us avoid or offset the margin impact that we experienced in the first quarter.

在費用方面，是的，本季我們的費用負擔可能比平常要重一些。因此，展望未來，我們預期費用影響不會像第一季那麼大。我們正在從費用管理的角度進行調整，以幫助我們避免或抵消第一季遇到的利潤率下降問題。

We have our next question comes from the line of Andrew Steinerman from JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的安德魯·斯坦納曼。

Okay. Great. Lee, 2 questions. Beyond the cat bond volatility and industry consolidation that you just recently mentioned, could you list any other drivers of why Verisk's organic revenue growth on its non-COVID business, that's the 85% of revenues, decelerated to 4.9% in the first quarter versus 6.5% in the fourth quarter? And let me just put out my other question, too. It's the question about '21 EBITDA margins. Lee, in the last 2 quarters, you mentioned a comment about '21 EBITDA margins relative to '20 and '19. Just could you update your comments? And is there any year that the margins are likely to be closer to this year?

好的。太好了。李，我有兩個問題。除了您剛才提到的巨災債券波動和行業整合之外，您能否列舉一下其他導致Verisk非新冠業務（佔總收入的85%）有機收入增長放緩至第一季4.9%（而第四季度為6.5%）的原因？另外，我還有個問題，是關於2021年的EBITDA利潤率。李，在過去的兩個季度裡，您都提到2021年的EBITDA利潤率與2020年和2019年相比的情況。能否更新一下您的看法？還有哪些年份的利潤率可能更接近今年的水準？

Yes. And thank you, Andrew. I mean I just want to clarify, you were addressing the question of both at a consolidated level. Is that correct?

是的。謝謝你，安德魯。我只是想確認一下，你剛才是在綜合層面上討論這兩個問題，對嗎？

Yes. Consolidated, yes.

是的，合併了，是的。

Yes. So I think we described the primary impacts, as you've indicated, in terms of the catastrophe bond impact and some of the consolidation impacts. Naturally, you can look at the other -- the performance of the other business units from a revenue standpoint in Financial Services, in particular, with the contract transitions and the COVID sensitive. I think from an Energy and Specialized Markets, it was kind of a relatively flat quarter.

是的。正如您所指出的，我們已經描述了主要的影響，包括巨災債券的影響和一些整合帶來的影響。當然，您也可以從其他方面——特別是金融服務部門的收入表現來看，考慮到合約過渡和受新冠疫情影響的情況。我認為能源和專業市場部門本季表現相對穩定。

So I would probably just point out that Financial Services clearly had a contribution to the overall growth rate in that regard. And as to your question on margin, I'm going to kind of go back to the way I answered the previous question, which was that clearly, we saw the margin benefit in 2020, resulting from our -- the reduction of expenses to a greater degree than the decline in revenues. And looking ahead to 2021, where we will be coming out of this, we are expecting some revenue growth improvement, but that probably will be exceeded by the normalization of expenses.

因此，我只想指出，金融服務業顯然對整體成長率做出了貢獻。至於您關於利潤率的問題，我打算重申我先前對這個問題的回答，那就是，2020年利潤率的提升主要得益於我們大幅削減開支，而這遠大於收入的下降。展望2021年，隨著疫情逐漸消退，我們預期收入成長會有所改善，但支出恢復正常後，收入成長可能會超過收入成長。

However, if you think about the responsiveness or the growth rates of those 2 lines, we are expecting that the rate of recovery from an expense standpoint will be slower, meaning that we will hope to hold on to some of that margin benefit that we experienced in 2020, but not all of it. So that is, I think, the outcome of our expectations at this point. Kind of looking at -- kind of reiterating that we are expecting that our margins still will be above where they were pre-pandemic, but will probably come down as those -- as the expenses normalize.

然而，考慮到這兩條產品線的反應速度和成長率，我們預期從成本角度來看，復甦速度會比較慢，這意味著我們希望能夠保留2020年的部分利潤率優勢，但無法全部保留。所以，我認為這就是我們目前的預期結果。我們預計——或者說重申——我們的利潤率仍將高於疫情前的水平，但隨著成本恢復正常，利潤率可能會有所下降。

We have our next question comes from the line of Hamzah Mazari from Jefferies.

下一個問題來自傑富瑞集團的哈姆札·馬扎里。

My question is around the international business within Insurance. I think a couple of years ago, you guys had flagged that you expected that business -- I guess it was growing high single digits, and you expected it to double organically in 5 years. I think that was a couple of analyst days ago. And maybe I think you guys had flagged U.K., Ireland, Canada, Germany, France, India, Southeast Asia as future growth. So maybe just update us how big is international today as part of the total offering in Insurance? And then which countries are you sort of under versus over penetrated? And where is the opportunity?

我的問題是關於保險業務中的國際業務。我記得幾年前，你們曾表示預計這項業務將保持高個位數成長，並預計五年內實現有機成長翻倍。我記得那是幾天前分析師會議上的內容。你們當時可能還把英國、愛爾蘭、加拿大、德國、法國、印度和東南亞列為未來的成長點。那麼，能否請你們更新一下，目前國際業務在保險整體業務中所佔的比重是多少？哪些國家的市場滲透率較低，哪些國家市場滲透率較高？還有哪些方面存在成長機會？

Thank you for the question. This is Mark. So let me kind of give you a quick summary. So first of all, a good recollection of the overview that we provided. If I was to now grade ourselves on where we are at that, I would say, from a U.K. perspective and Ireland, we are well ahead of that plan. I think we are doing extremely well, and I think we've highlighted some of the benefits of the Sequel acquisition, and just the progress that's been made there. Along with some of the work that we've done on the claims and underwriting front.

感謝您的提問。我是馬克。讓我先簡單總結一下。首先，回顧一下我們之前提供的概述。如果現在讓我評估我們目前的進展，我會說，從英國和愛爾蘭的角度來看，我們遠遠領先於計劃。我認為我們做得非常出色，而且我們已經重點介紹了收購Sequel帶來的益處以及取得的進展。此外，我們也介紹了我們在理賠和承保方面所做的一些工作。

As we think about other regions, we did highlight France and Germany. And I would say there, it's been a tougher sledding. We were looking for a combination of organic access as well as movement into maybe some businesses that provided services there, from an M&A perspective. I think we've done well from a cat bond perspective, cat modeling perspective. So there, strong rate, just probably less progress with some of the other underwriting and claims in that France and Germany field. I think we kind of had talked about Asia Pacific is more long term. I'm not sure I could comment on that, that's probably still on the horizon. So thank you for the question. I think we give ourselves overall strong grades.

當我們考慮其他地區時，我們專注於了法國和德國。我想說，在那裡的發展確實比較艱難。我們一直在尋求有機成長，同時也希望透過併購的方式，進軍一些在當地提供服務的企業。我認為我們在巨災債券和巨災模型方面做得很好。所以，我們在法國和德國的業務表現強勁，只是在其他承保和理賠方面進展可能稍慢。我們之前也討論過亞太地區的業務，這是一個更長期的發展方向。我不確定現在是否能對此發表評論，這可能還在計劃之中。謝謝你的提問。總的來說，我認為我們給自己打分數很高。

Great. Great. And just my follow-up question, and you touched on it, Lee, a little bit on the time frame in evaluating the non-Insurance segment. But do you sort of have any high-level color if that Financial Services business has changed structurally. I know a while back -- and Lee, I know you weren't there at the time, but the healthcare business had structurally changed. And the government had gotten more involved, the business wasn't as global, and there were some other items. As you look at this business with new competition or other stuff, maybe diversifying away from banking customers has been slower. Do you have a sense of timeframe-wise, is that sort of -- you're still looking into that? Or do you guys have a pretty good view there already?

太好了。太好了。我還有一個後續問題，李，你剛才也稍微提到了評估非保險業務的時間框架。你對金融服務業務的結構性變化有什麼大致了解嗎？我知道之前——李，我知道你當時不在——醫療保健業務的結構發生了變化。政府的介入更多了，業務的全球化程度降低了，還有一些其他因素。考慮到新的競爭對手或其他因素，這項業務可能在擺脫對銀行客戶的依賴方面進展緩慢。你對這方面的時間框架有什麼看法？你們還在研究嗎？還是你們已經有比較清楚的認知了？

So Hamzah, I think -- thank you for the question. And I think there are -- there is an external perspective and an internal perspective, if you're asking about the structural -- has the business changed structurally. And I think your primary question is from an external standpoint. And I would say that the presence of other players that serve that banking -- the banking industry, particularly as it relates to cards, it remains -- has remained relatively consistent. The large players, whether they're the credit bureaus or the network companies are there. They serve that industry.

所以，哈姆扎，我想──謝謝你的提問。我認為，如果你問的是結構性問題——即業務結構是否發生了變化——那麼就存在外部視角和內部視角兩個面向。我認為你的主要問題來自外部視角。我想說的是，服務銀行業的其他參與者——特別是與信用卡相關的銀行業——的存在相對穩定。大型機構，無論是信用評等機構或網路公司，都依然存在。它們服務於這個行業。

And the Verisk Financial Services entity, has, for a long time, competed very successfully within that environment, given the very unique nature of the data set and the unique relationships that they have with the industry. And they provide a service by integrating that data set and delivering it in a way that others aren't able to do. And so I don't believe that there has been a material change, but we are mindful of the competitive environment that they operate in. From the other perspective, from a structural change, I can say unequivocally that we have changed and improved the business in shifting it to more of a sustainable focus on growth within the business with the steps that the management team has made. And some of those have had, obviously, a challenging financial impact in the short term, but we believe that the business is better positioned for the long term given those structural changes. So I wanted to address both parts of those questions.

Verisk Financial Services 實體長期以來在該環境中都取得了巨大的成功，這得益於其資料集的獨特性以及與產業建立的獨特關係。他們透過整合該數據集並以其他公司無法做到的方式交付服務，從而提供獨特的優勢。因此，我認為並沒有發生實質的變化，但我們始終關注他們所處的競爭環境。從另一個角度來看，從結構性變化的角度來看，我可以明確地說，透過管理團隊採取的措施，我們已經改變並改進了業務，使其更加重視永續成長。顯然，其中一些措施在短期內對財務狀況產生了挑戰性的影響，但我們相信，鑑於這些結構性變化，公司在長期發展中處於更有利的地位。因此，我想就這兩個問題都作答。

Our next question comes from the line of Gary Bisbee from Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的加里·比斯比。

I just wanted to go back to some earlier commentary on the Energy business. Scott, I think you said you just need sort of a normal market environment, not necessarily a robust one, to deliver to your goals in the business. I guess I wanted to ask what is it you would expect to deliver in a normal environment? In the 5 years you've owned the business, it's grown 7% once, and not grown a couple of those years. And so it's just not clear to me that this business is positioned, particularly given the volatility inherent in the end market, to deliver to the long-term revenue growth targets you've set for the company. And on a number of occasions, actually said this business should outperform those over the long-term or growth faster than some of your other assets. So what is it you're planning for in a normal energy market if we're moving back into that today?

我想回顧一下之前關於能源業務的一些評論。史考特，我記得你說過，你只需要一個相對正常的市場環境，不一定要強勁的市場環境，就能實現你的業務目標。我想問的是，在正常的市場環境下，你期望達成什麼目標？在你擁有這家公司的五年裡，它只有一次成長達到7%，還有幾年沒有成長。因此，我不確定這家公司目前是否具備實現你為公司設定的長期營收成長目標的能力，尤其是在終端市場固有的波動性下。你曾多次表示，這家公司在長期內應該表現優於其他公司，或成長速度超過你旗下的其他一些資​​產。那麼，如果我們現在回到正常的能源市場，你有什麼計畫呢？

Yes. You bet, Gary. Thank you for the question. Yes. When you sit -- and I actually relate it to the way that Lee was responding to that prior question about Financial Services. So if you kind of get to the top of sort of our business and that ecosystem, what you're looking at is global customers that are large, that are facing challenging issues in terms of how they're going to run their businesses in the future, are calling increasingly upon data analytics to try to help them make these very, very important decisions. And have only a few places that they can turn to outside of their own 4 walls in order to find support with respect to the kind of data analytics that they want to make the commercial decisions that they need to make.

是的，沒錯，加里。謝謝你的提問。是的。當你坐下來——我其實把它和李之前回答關於金融服務的問題聯繫起來——如果你深入了解我們業務和生態系統的運作，你會發現，那些規模龐大的全球客戶，在未來如何運營業務方面面臨著諸多挑戰，他們越來越依賴數據分析來幫助他們做出這些至關重要的決策。然而，除了他們本身之外，他們能尋求支持的地方寥寥無幾，無法獲得他們所需的數據分析支持，從而做出必要的商業決策。

And then I would add to that one other point, which is the range of topics in the ecosystem that can be covered. And those have really expanded in light of the energy transition. And there was an earlier question about what do we do with respect to renewables. But I would point out also that in the energy space, there's a great sensitivity to topics of climate change. And so our ability to also observe on things like emissions is an important capability and a distinct capability.

此外，我還想補充一點，那就是生態系中可以涵蓋的主題範圍。鑑於能源轉型，這些主題的範圍確實大大擴展了。之前有人問過我們如何處理再生能源問題。但我還要指出，在能源領域，氣候變遷問題非常敏感。因此，我們監測排放等指標的能力是一項重要且獨特的能力。

And so the summation of all of that for me, Gary, would be that you're right about the track record. I would point out, over the course of the last 5 years, there have been 2 relatively unprecedented shocks to the pricing of the commodity. And I'm not here to predict that there can't be any more of those, but they were pretty unusual, and in a relatively compressed period of time. Against that, I would put a very large global market with increasing appetite for data analytics of the kind that we provide. And so my summary on all of that would be that I look for this business to contribute at or above the targets we have as a company overall. We're going to hold it to that standard. So that's really it.

綜上所述，加里，我的結論是，你對過往業績的判斷是正確的。我想指出的是，在過去五年裡，大宗商品價格經歷了兩次前所未有的衝擊。我並不是說以後不會再出現這種情況，但這兩次衝擊確實非常特殊，而且發生在相對較短的時間內。同時，全球市場對我們提供的這類數據分析服務有著日益增長的需求。因此，我的總結是，我希望這項業務能夠達到或超越我們公司的整體目標。我們將以此標準要求它。就是這樣。

Yes. And then just one quick follow-up for Lee. A couple of years ago, you had -- the company had discussed sort of a glide path lower in capital intensity. Now of course, I think that was in large part on the Geomni business at the time. And since then, you've stepped up technology investment considerably. I guess I'm just wondering if you could level set for us today, how are you thinking about capital intensity over the next few years. As you get through more of the cloud projects, should we -- is the goal still that, that moderates a couple of points lower over time? Or where are you at now?

是的。李先生，我還有一個後續問題。幾年前，你們公司曾討論過逐步降低資本密集度的方案。當然，我認為當時這主要是為了Geomni業務。但從那以後，你們大幅增加了技術投資。我想請您今天為我們明確一下，您是如何看待未來幾年的資本密集度的？隨著雲端專案的推進，我們的目標是否仍是逐步降低幾個百分點？或者說，你們目前的計畫是什麼？

Yes. Thank you, Gary. And so the short answer is yes. And it is a function, as you've described, of our migration to the cloud, which is reducing the level of CapEx that we would have typically spent on hardware and infrastructure. Now offsetting that, but we still think it's not completely offsetting that benefit is an increasing level of internal software development intensity, which is a function of some of the trends that Mark was talking about in terms of utilizing software opportunity as a way to activate and deliver our data sets and provide solutions for our clients.

是的，謝謝你，Gary。所以簡而言之，答案是肯定的。正如你所描述的，這得益於我們向雲端遷移，從而降低了我們通常在硬體和基礎設施上的資本支出。雖然這在一定程度上抵消了硬體和基礎設施成本的降低，但我們仍然認為這並不能完全抵消遷移帶來的好處，那就是我們內部軟體開發強度的不斷提高。這源自於Mark提到的一些趨勢，即利用軟體開發來啟動和交付我們的資料集，並為客戶提供解決方案。

And so that is clearly an element that we think is added to our business. It's generating good returns. We never want the CapEx intensity metric to obscure our fundamental return objectives. So we do expect to see that improvement over time. It has probably been obscured by some of the real estate renovations that we have done recently that are included in that, but we are realizing real benefits in terms of reductions in CapEx and even OpEx expenses related to infrastructure as a result of that. And some of those are being reinvested in some of the software development elements as we develop that component of our -- of the delivery of our data sets.

因此，這顯然是我們認為能夠為公司業務增添價值的一個要素，而且它正在帶來良好的回報。我們絕不希望資本支出強度指標掩蓋我們根本的報酬目標。所以我們預期隨著時間的推移，這項指標會持續改善。雖然近期進行的一些房地產翻新工程可能掩蓋了這種改善，但我們正在實際感受到這些工程帶來的收益，包括降低資本支出，甚至降低與基礎設施相關的營運支出。其中一部分資金正被重新投入到軟體開發中，用於完善我們交付資料集的這部分功能。

And there are no further questions. I'll turn the call over to you, Stacey.

沒有其他問題了。我把電話交給你了，史泰西。

Okay. Well, thank you, everybody, for joining us. I appreciate all the questions and the dialogue, and we will certainly, as always, be following up with many of you following this call. So thank you for the continued interest and support. We'll speak with you soon. Bye for today.

好的。謝謝大家的參與。感謝大家提出的所有問題和積極參與的討論，我們一定會像往常一樣，在通話結束後與大家保持聯繫。感謝大家一直以來的關注與支持。我們很快會再聯絡。今天就到這裡。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you all for participating, and you may now disconnect. Have a great day.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位的參與，現在可以掛斷電話了。祝您今天愉快。