Controladora Vuela Compania de Aviacion SAB de CV (VLRS) 2020 Q1 法說會逐字稿

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  • Operator

  • Good morning, everyone. And thank you for standing by, and welcome to Volaris' First Quarter 2020 Financial Results Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note that this event is being recorded. And at this point, I would now like to turn the call over to Ms. Maria Elena Rodriguez, Volaris' Corporate Finance and Investor Relations Director. Please go ahead, Miss.

  • Maria Elena Rodriguez Asiain - Corporate Financing, Treasury & IR Director

  • Good morning, everyone. And thank you for joining the call. With us today is our President and CEO, Enrique Beltranena; our Airline Executive Vice President, Holger Blankenstein; and our Vice President and CFO, Sonia Jerez. We will be discussing the company's first quarter 2020 results. Afterwards, we will move on to your questions. Please note that this call is for investors and analysts only. Any questions from the media will be taken on an individual basis.

  • Before we begin, please let me remind everyone that this call may include forward-looking statements within the meaning of applicable securities laws. Forward-looking statements are subject to several factors that could cause the company's actual results to differ materially from expectations for reasons described in the company's filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Furthermore, Volaris undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements.

  • It's now my pleasure to turn the call over to Volaris' President and CEO, Mr. Enrique Beltranena.

  • Enrique Javier Beltranena Mejicano - President, CEO & Director

  • Thank you, Maria Elena. Good morning at this challenging time, and thank you for joining us today. Let me begin by sharing my thoughts and best wishes with those whom have been touched by this [disconcerning] virus. And by expressing my empathy, and close support to our investors, our customers, investors, suppliers and our communities during the current unparalleled global environment. We're certain that remaining responsive and united as a society will be better prepared to overcome this human and economic crisis, while we will grow stronger together. As a socially responsible corporation and a provider of essential services in the transportation sector, we have been guided by our 3 pillars since the company was founded. Safety, being the first and foremost. The safety and health of our ambassadors, our customers is our top priority. Thanks God, so far, we can say that we have had some minor number of ambassadors that have been infected and they are all recovering and no casualties to report. During the declared state of emergency, we have been following and implementing protocols and guidelines issued by the International Aviation Transportation Agency and the health organizations. We have been working alongside with the Mexican institute for health and social protection gains. The Mexican Red Cross, the private sector alliance for disaster resilient societies arise in Mexico, the Private Domestic Committee for Humanitarian Aid in national emergencies and disasters, Helena, and some other private organizations in order to support various initiatives and cooperate with the health workers and with others who are in the front lines of combat, facing this virus in Mexico and Central America.

  • We have transported health and medical equipment from Mexico City to more than 50 destinations within the country. Our goal is to keep strengthening this type of alliances with the purpose of delivering some relief to the communities we serve. We are proud of our ambassadors and of their contribution at this moment, in this challenging times.

  • Now I would like to explain how our business has evolved during an unprecedented challenge to the entire global aviation industry in the first quarter. We faced 2 very different scenarios. For the month of January and February, both capacity measured by available shipments and demand measured by revenue passenger miles, increased versus the same period of last year. Unit revenue for January and February also improved compared to the previous year. The positive trend was sustained until the third week of March when the traffic patterns started to decline as a result of the COVID-19 outbreak.

  • On March 24, the company announced a decrease in capacity measured by ASMs for the end of March and April of approximately 50% versus the originally scheduled level. On March 30, the Mexican government declared a health emergency due to force majeure. The result, Volaris announced an additional capacity reduction for the month of April, which resulted in a decrease of 80% versus the originally scheduled capacity.

  • On Tuesday, April 21, just at the beginning of this week, the Mexican government announced the beginning of Phase III of the spread of the COVID-19, the most serious stage, an extended government of restrictions to contain the pandemic until May 30, at least. As a result, Volaris will carry out the further capacity reduction for the month of May of approximately 90% versus the originally scheduled capacity.

  • After a steady trajectory of 7 quarters of continuous improvement, delivering positive results, the company entered the state of emergency in its strongest shape. With an ultra-low cost structure, a solid balance sheet, a robust liquidity position and most importantly, with cohesive team of ambassadors throughout the entire company. I feel very proud about the team that I have and the work that they are doing, and I think we all can do it better through the future.

  • Our cost structure is amongst the lowest in the quarter. The company achieved the CASM ex fuel of or USD 0.0413 for the first quarter of 2020. In terms of liquidity, we closed the third quarter with $463 million in unrestricted cash, which is mainly denominated in U.S. dollars. Our liquidity position has become essential to the company. Under our most stretched project scenario, our current liquidity position should endure a potential program downturn. We have a solid balance sheet with only interest-bearing obligations in the short term. We have developed ability in cash preservation program with a high level of scrutiny on payment terms, and we have canceled or postponed nonoperational expenditures, nonessential CapEx, tooling expenses and instituted other company-wide cost cutting measures.

  • We have had a candid approach to our union and to all of our personnel, who have been supported and have agreed to advance their regulatory and optional training, anticipate vacation days and to accept substantial voluntary leave of absences for periods of up to 90 days. Let me remind you that Volaris' labor contract includes a full flexibility schedule of crew members and a substantial amount of their pay scale, which is based on variable flight hours.

  • On the administrative front, the wages have been reduced amongst the different organizational layers in a range which starts at an 80% at the C-suite level and goes down to 20% in the lower level of our organization structure. I have to say that it has been very painful for me to implement these kind of strategies, but it is, in there, of the essence for the survival of the company.

  • At the Board of Directors level, non-independent members have waved 100% of their annual compensation, while independent members have waved 40% of their annual compensation. We have reached out to most of our suppliers in order to obtain extended payment periods and even haircuts. We have been fortunate in receiving cooperation from most of our resorts, ERCO groups and other main business partners. In this regard, we are grateful to all, who have been supportive of Volaris by successfully completing this comprehensive negotiations, and I will never forget their support.

  • We have carried out a flexible and strategic operating plan to reduce capacity, where we have canceled and consolidated flights in order to defend profitability. We have managed to rapidly adopt our digital platforms and web services in order to satisfy our currently overwhelmed customer service channels. At Volaris, we have come together as a family with our shared culture and values for our spirit of collaboration, connection, resilience, adaptability and apathy have become fundamental.

  • Now I will touch on the company's financial and operating results for the first quarter of 2020. TRASM increased in the first quarter year-over-year, 2%, mainly driven by the total ancillary revenues, which had an increase of 16% year-over-year. ASMs grew by 7% in the first quarter, remained service of growth was healthy capacity generated by better utilization of our existing assets during the first 2 months of the quarter. The number of passengers we carried in the first quarter grew by 6% year-over-year with healthy load factor. The first quarter of the year delivered an operating income of MXN 308 million, an operating margin of 4%, which is 3.5 percentage points higher than first quarter of 2019. Volaris entered the first quarter with positive operating cash flow generation of MXN 2.8 billion for the quarter, and I also already mentioned the balance at the end of the quarter. So while our first quarter demonstrates the strength of success of Volaris' ultra low-cost carrier business model and its organization underpinning this performance, there should be no doubt, just like for every other passenger air carrier in the world, the future environment for the industry and for Volaris is very uncertain and will most likely present a great challenge operationally and financially.

  • Now let me pass it over to our Airline Executive Vice President, Holger Blankenstein, to elaborate further on revenues and on the commercial strategy in the current environment.

  • Holger Blankenstein - EVP of Airline Commercial & Operations

  • Thank you, Enrique. In the first quarter of this year, we achieved the following top line figures: In the domestic market, the load factor was 86.1%. In the international market, the load factor was 81.7%. Domestic ASM growth for the quarter was 7%, while the international ASM growth was 6%. Total ancillary revenue per passenger performed very well, reaching MXN 564 for the quarter, an increase of 9% year-over-year. Total ancillary revenues increased by 16% year-over-year and now account for 38% of total operating revenues.

  • Capacity allocated to Central America represented 3% of total ASMs. In terms of operational reliability, on-time performance was 86.7% for the first quarter, with a scheduled completion of 93.1%, which was mainly driven by the cancellations of the last 2 weeks of March. In the first week of March, we held Volaris' annual anniversary sales promotion, typically the biggest promotion of the year. This year, the promotion surpassed last year's record sales, favoring the company's liquidity position. The big anniversary promotion successfully completed on March 5 and 6 and the 13.

  • As Enrique mentioned, it was not until the third week of March when we started to see a dramatic drop in passenger traffic. First, in the international traffic, followed by domestic. In the last week of March, we closed operations in Central America altogether. In response to the health emergency and in line with the measures established by the authorities of El Salvador, Guatemala and Costa Rica. As of today, we have reduced capacity by 80% versus the originally planned schedule for the same time period. The international markets have had the highest reductions. We have canceled and consolidated flights in a flexible, responsive and measured way, focusing on flight profitability.

  • During these past weeks, we have been monitoring the dynamics of the markets that we serve through demand, forward bookings and cancellation patterns. In this difficult environment, we have found that our main target customer segment, the passengers who are visiting friends and relatives, are more resilient to traveling than the business and leisure segments. This is one of the key reasons we reduced operations at a later stage than some of our Mexican peers. Also remember that Mexico is 5 to 6 weeks behind the U.S. and Europe in this pandemic.

  • For the first quarter of the year, we offered an average of 392 daily flight segments on routes that connect 40 cities in Mexico and 20 cities in the United States and Central America. As of today, Volaris had 131 daily operations in 40 domestic and 7 international rules. We will continue to reduce the schedule in the short term in this period of great uncertainty and given the weak travel demand.

  • Now that we are in Phase III of the pandemic here in Mexico, we plan to do further reductions in May of up to 90% versus the originally published schedule. All in all, for the second quarter, we are expecting an average capacity reduction of 80%, although it is early to make predictions even for a couple of months from now. Load factors are likely to be 10% to 15% lower than our historical levels in the time -- same time period. We expect a capacity reduction from 50% to 60% in the third quarter as well. In terms of maintenance, we have put in place a plan, in order to preserve the aircraft that have been grounded. We currently have 63 aircraft in long-term preservation. During the current environment, we have also been accelerating the digital transformation initiatives. We have adapted our digital platform and web services to satisfy our currently overwhelmed call centers. Some call center operations were also affected by government authorized closings in countries and regions in which they operate.

  • As calls saturated the call center during the pandemic, we rapidly made additional developments on our website. We also launched a big communication effort to direct our customers to the web and guide them through the change process.

  • For flight cancellations initiated by Volaris, we developed an automated platform able to reach flight cancellations in the system, and without human interaction send 3 options to customers to choose from: Number one, a voucher for the total amount of their purchase, plus an additional 25% credit; number two, change their flight for a future date with no change fees; or 3, a refund. For flight changes initiated by the customers, we have also made it easier to change reservations on volaris.com in cases where the flight remains in the schedule, but the passenger chooses to fly on a later date. For example, we are waiting change fees for flight until the end of June. Since March 15, most changes have been done by customers themselves on our digital platforms. We are also finding opportunities during this time of crisis. We have significantly advanced digitalization projects. For example, we upgrade to the latest version of New Skies, the Navitaire reservation platform. We will be among the first 3 airlines to migrate to this version, which offers spot collections, additional functionalities and more flexibility.

  • Clearly, the pandemic will have an impact on growth. Volaris is reducing its 2020 growth expectations from plus 10% year-over-year to a potentially negative growth. Mexico, Central America and the U.S. will be in a recession for 2020. And this will have an effect on demand for air travel. We are managing our fleet deliveries and redeliveries to reflect this lower growth. So far, we are exploring delay of 8 aircraft deliveries within the next 18 months. For the second half of 2021, we expect a bounce back of growth due to our superior ultra low-cost business model. As economic activity returns, the expectation is for ultra low-cost carriers to recover much faster than traditional carriers.

  • Now I'd like to turn over the call to our Vice President and CFO, Sonia Jerez, to discuss our financial performance for the quarter.

  • Sonia Jerez Burdeus - VP & CFO

  • Thank you, Holger, and hello, everyone. Now I will continue with discussion of our results in accordance with the figures filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission and Comisión Nacional Bancaria y de Valores. Total operating revenues for the first quarter reached MXN 7.8 billion, representing an increase of 8.8% versus 2019. During the first quarter, CASM ex fuel levels remained at USD 0.0413. Total U.S. dollar CASM was $0.0624, a decrease of 4.5% versus 2019.

  • Moving on to profitability. EBITDA in the first quarter was MXN 2.1 billion, an EBITDA margin of 27.2%, which is 5.7 points higher than the first quarter of 2019. We reported a net income for the first quarter of negative MXN 1.5 billion with a negative net margin of 19%. It is worth noting that a significant contributor to this net loss is the asset depreciation at the end of the first quarter that leads to a noncash FX net loss of MXN 1.8 billion below the operating line due to our net U.S. dollar monetary liability position.

  • During the first quarter, the net cash flow generated by operating activities was MXN 2.8 billion. The net cash flow used in investment activities reached a negative MXN 37 million, and the net cash flow used in financing activities was negative MXN 1.9 million -- billion. As of March 31, 2020, cash and cash equivalents were MXN 10.7 billion, MXN 2.7 billion above December 2019 and representing 30% of last 12 months of operating revenues.

  • Volaris registered a negative net debt of MXN 4.8 billion, excluding lease liabilities recognized under the IFRS adoption. Volaris' net debt-to-EBITDA ratio close to the quarter closed the quarter at 4x, reflecting a healthy and solid balance sheet. It is important to note that company's long-term debt does not bear any principal amortization for this year. For the first quarter of 2020, U.S. dollar-denominated collection represented 43% of total revenues. Our fuel expense line of the quarter was slightly benefited from the recent drop in jet fuel prices as we only hedge approximately 25% of the expected fuel consumption. Our hedging portfolio has had hedging accounting treatment and the related gain or loss has been embedded in the fuel expense line. For the remainder of the year, we have a hedge position of around 60% of our originally projected consumption as we are likely to reduce capacity further, hedge accounting treatment may no longer be valid reporting criteria, therefore, the related gain or loss of the unhedged portion will be allocated below the line as a finance cost.

  • As Enrique mentioned, we have implemented cost-cutting measures and developed a rigorous cash preservation program, which includes some of the following measures: For the first quarter, the fixed costs were approximately 1/3 of the total costs, out of which approximately 1/2 are related to aircraft rentals. In what is an ongoing process, we have already managed to refer 53% of the rental payments that are due in the second quarter. We have rich agreements with 27 of 29 of our fleet and engine lessors. We expect further improvement in this line.

  • Additionally, paying on deferrals and head cup programs with other main suppliers have been achieved. Far lower cost reductions mostly take care of themselves because of fuel is the most obvious example. All personnel has been really supportive and 82% of the operational personnel has agreed to partially pay leave on absences, which go from 2 to 3 months and will return flying for the rest of the year at a minimal fixed cost payment, which is about 40% below the standard number of hours they typically fly.

  • On the administrative front, Enrique already reported, the reduction on annual wages among the different organizational levels. We have reduced capital expenditures to a minimum and kept nonessential expenses for the rest of the year.

  • For the second quarter, Volaris has been able to negotiate a reduction on the fixed cost in addition to the rental deferrals. We have established a treasury world room where we diligently review each payment and have reduced even further the nonoperational expenses. In the face of the widespread industry disruption, the company is not providing guidance on earnings. We will, however, intensify our already strong effort to preserve cash and to continue finding and implementing additional cost-cutting measures.

  • Now I'll pass it back to Enrique for closing remarks.

  • Enrique Javier Beltranena Mejicano - President, CEO & Director

  • Thank you, Sonia. Before I do my closing remarks, I want to inform you that the shareholders of the company on the General Shareholders meeting, held on April 22, 2020, appointed Brian H. Franke as the new Chairman of the Board of Directors. Mr. Franke has extensive experience in the airline industry. Alfonso Gonzalez Migoya, our former Chairman, will remain serving as an independent member of the Board, and the company is very thankful for his leadership during the past 6 years. The shareholders also appointed to new very experienced board members, Mónica Aspe Bernal, Interim CEO of AT&T Mexico and Guadalupe Phillips Margain, CEO of ICA.

  • With these changes, our Board of Directors has become stronger. And Volaris' management is looking forward to continue working very, very tightly with them.

  • Our business as the airline industry have begun to experience significant adverse impacts due to the COVID. We cannot yet quantify the impact on us. And we cannot offer any assurance that these impacts will not intensify to the extent that the outbreak persists and spreads out to the Mexico. It is not yet possible to determine the extent to which this pandemic will further decrease demand of our aircraft. Our top priority is the safety and health of our ambassadors and our customers, as I mentioned at the beginning of the meeting. We have taken rapid and appropriate actions on the administrative, operational and financial fronts. As Mexico's largest domestic carrier, it is our responsibility to remain united, to maintain our focus, our strengths and to deliver the best version of ourselves in order to overcome this situation. We'll remain guided by our pillars, values and our mission, and hopefully, God will help us and support us through this mission.

  • Thank you for listening. Operator, we are ready to open the call for questions.

  • Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) We'll take our first question from Duane Pfennigwerth with Evercore ISI.

  • Duane Thomas Pfennigwerth - Senior MD

  • Just with respect to the first quarter, your revenue held up a lot better than what we've seen so far in the U.S. Do you think this is just a timing issue that you've seen the COVID impacts a little bit later? And then into the second quarter, I appreciate the commentary about the level of capacity reduction, 80%, 90%. Do you think revenue declines would be similar to those capacity cuts? Or is revenue -- is the trajectory of revenue different than these capacity cuts that you're outlining?

  • Holger Blankenstein - EVP of Airline Commercial & Operations

  • Thanks, Duane. I'll take that question. So on the first quarter, there's 2 effects. Number one, Mexico is about 5 to 6 weeks behind the U.S. and Europe in the pandemic. And number two, the domestic market in Mexico has held up better than the international market. And we have a lower share of international flights than some of our Mexican peers and U.S. carriers as well. And then the third point is that our customer segment, the visiting friends and relatives, are holding up better than the leisure and business customer segments. So we are strong in the DFR, and we've held up a little bit better in the first quarter.

  • For the second quarter, as you point out, we have announced an 80% reduction for April. We are going to cut the schedule 90% for May and then probably around 50% for June as we see ramp up in the market, in the domestic markets. In particular, and the revenue costs that you can see, you can probably observe are going to be in that line as well in accordance with the capacity cost.

  • Duane Thomas Pfennigwerth - Senior MD

  • Okay, great. And then just for my follow-up, given all the aggressive steps that you've taken to respond to this, would you be able to speak to kind of a monthly cash OpEx rate at this point? Like what are your monthly cash operating expense levels after all of these initiatives take hold?

  • Sonia Jerez Burdeus - VP & CFO

  • Yes, for sure, Duane. I'm going to explain what is our cash burn in terms of fixed cost. Because on the variable side, it's going to be dependent on the revenues and capacity, so our current cash burn monthly is about $35 million to $40 million per month.

  • Operator

  • Our next question is from Helane Becker with Cowen.

  • Helane R. Becker - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • Just 2 questions. So as we think about the model and the load factors right now, you said they were down, I think, over 10 or 15 percentage points below where they are normally. If the load factors can't return to normal, whatever that is, say, 85%, 80%, how should we think about your model in that environment?

  • Holger Blankenstein - EVP of Airline Commercial & Operations

  • Well, Helane, we did -- we're seeing a slight reduction in loads to 10% to 15%, as we mentioned. We do have quite a lot of no shows as well, which have been around 25% to 30%. So the onboard loan is actually much lower than the booked load, and we've been able to consolidate flights and increase the booked load factor on many of our flights, and we are managing the profitability on a flight-by-flight level, looking at booked loans.

  • In the medium term, it's really very early to tell how things are going to evolve. We expect a return of some demand in June and into the summer season. But it's really difficult to make a prediction right now because the booking curves are not in line with the historical booking curves. What we can say, however, is that we have the lowest cost position of any competitor in the market. And in the long term, we have the superior business model in the market. So we should be able to return to historical load factors eventually. That's our expectation.

  • Enrique Javier Beltranena Mejicano - President, CEO & Director

  • Let me add to what Holger is saying, Helane. I think one of the beauties of Volaris is we don't have restrictions on cruise, and we can schedule in a very flexible way. Where we are managing things is we have to cover costs when we operate any route. So Holger and his -- and the commercial teams are managing the schedule and are managing the availability of flights based on what -- and on where we can make money, okay? Or where we can at least come out breakeven at least. So I think you will be seeing lots improving while the markets recuperates. But for one thing I can -- one thing I can assure is whatever we'll be operating is going to be at least break even.

  • Helane R. Becker - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • Okay. That's really helpful. And then my other question is, can you say what the take rates are on vouchers versus cash refunds? Like how many people were taking the voucher plus the incentive versus just asking for the third option, the refund?

  • Holger Blankenstein - EVP of Airline Commercial & Operations

  • So I think Helane, the good news is that many customers are taking the voucher option and with a 25% additional electronic credit. During the first 20 days of the implementation of this service, many more customers have selected the voucher option and have done -- have emitted the vouchers in a self-service way without human interaction from the call center -- from our call center, which helps us on the call center cost as well. And they actually choose what is suited to their needs. So I think that's really good for our cash situation as well.

  • Helane R. Becker - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • And I just need one thing clarified. Did you -- I don't know if it was Sonia or Enrique, did you say that CapEx has been cut to zero? What did you say about CapEx?

  • Enrique Javier Beltranena Mejicano - President, CEO & Director

  • No. It's not zero, Helane, because, for example, Holger had said that he's developing this whole thing on Navitaire and that kind of stuff, okay? And those things are fundamental for the company. So you basically cannot cut CapEx to zero. I mean it's nonessential CapEx, tooling expenses and that kind of stuff that we have cut down to zero, okay?

  • Helane R. Becker - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • Okay. Sorry about that. And then, what about aircraft deferrals? Did you -- what did you say about that?

  • Enrique Javier Beltranena Mejicano - President, CEO & Director

  • So we're -- everything is still a piece of work -- in work process, Helane. But I mean, we have like 18 aircraft arriving in the next 18 months. And we -- so far, we have optionalities to reduce 7 to 9 aircrafts, okay?

  • What we have already on the table, let's say, aircraft deliveries that we don't delay. And we will keep on working on it. Okay?

  • Operator

  • So we'll go next to Mike Linenberg with Deutsche Bank.

  • Michael John Linenberg - MD and Senior Company Research Analyst

  • Just a follow-up, though, on CapEx since it sounds like it's not zero. What -- so if we think about non-aircraft CapEx, what is the budget for 2020? And then sort of to add to that, what are the number of airplanes that are coming, not over the next 18 months, but what is currently coming over the next, say, between now and year-end 2020? How many airplanes do you have delivering?

  • Sonia Jerez Burdeus - VP & CFO

  • Yes. So far, we have -- as Enrique mentioned, we have got all non-share projects, and we're just doing the ones in relation mainly with sales. Depends on the recovery situation, we will do more or less in terms of other nonessential CapEx. But so far, these as a minimum.

  • Holger Blankenstein - EVP of Airline Commercial & Operations

  • So what's the strange fact, Michael, that we are focusing ourselves on preserving cash, okay? And the company will preserve cash, I mean, as much as we can. Obviously, I mean, something that generates revenues is something that we cannot stop. So that's what we're doing. And I don't think we are there with something which is not finished. It's very clear. The CapEx is cut, unless it's very necessary, okay? Or unless it's revenue. And I want to be absolutely clear about that. The second thing is deliveries. We'll take whatever deliveries we have to take, okay? Legally, okay? But the company is doing whatever it takes to delay everything. And I want to leave that also very clear. So it's not that it's not finished. It's that we do have contractual things that we need to deal with, working on contractual terms.

  • Michael John Linenberg - MD and Senior Company Research Analyst

  • Okay, okay. And then just maybe, Holger, if we had to split to do a composition of what percentage of your traffic do you believe is DFR, maybe what percentage is leisure? And presumably, maybe 5% or 10% of your traffic, maybe more actually since you have such a good service pattern, is business, or what I would refer to as price-sensitive business? Do you have sort of rough numbers on how those 3 buckets split out?

  • Holger Blankenstein - EVP of Airline Commercial & Operations

  • Yes, it very much depends on the route, obviously, but what we can say is about 50% of our customers are DFR customers, about 30% would be leisure -- 30% to 40% would be leisure and small and medium-sized enterprises, prices to travel. So we don't have a corporate and government traffic.

  • Michael John Linenberg - MD and Senior Company Research Analyst

  • Yes. No, no, that's actually correct. Oh, you really don't have much government traffic?

  • Holger Blankenstein - EVP of Airline Commercial & Operations

  • No.

  • Michael John Linenberg - MD and Senior Company Research Analyst

  • Okay. And then just my last question, and this is to the team, maybe more direct at Enrique. Anything hearing out of the government. I think at Aeromexico, they mentioned that maybe they were going to get some relief with respect to air traffic control, navigation charges, maybe they would get some sort of benefit through being able to not necessarily be compelled to use the government provider of fuel services. I mean they were very small things, but anything that you're hearing or seeing or maybe you could add to that, any sort of government assistance.

  • Enrique Javier Beltranena Mejicano - President, CEO & Director

  • So Volaris is expecting from the government support on extending credit terms of foreign following services. And if possible, I mean, we've been talking to Bank of Mex, to a potential credit line, mainly to support employment continuity, but I want to leave it very clear that I'm not expecting the state to rescue this company. I think it's going to be a minimal support that it's going to be much more through credits and credit terms.

  • Operator

  • We'll go next to Matthew Wisniewski with Barclays.

  • Matthew Aaron Wisniewski - Research Analyst

  • Just wanted to kind of circle back on a couple of other questions that were answered. But it sounds like a lot of passengers are taking the voucher, but I was wondering if you could say whether you're still receiving positive bookings. And so are bookings exceeding, what kind of -- what refunds are (inaudible) passengers potentially?

  • Holger Blankenstein - EVP of Airline Commercial & Operations

  • Well, given the reduction of 80% and 90% in April and May, respectively, clearly, for those months, we don't see net positive bookings. We see more changes in cancellations than new bookings. For future months, we do still see positive net bookings, especially for the fourth quarter and late third quarter.

  • Matthew Aaron Wisniewski - Research Analyst

  • Okay, great. And then just on the assumptions right now for the return of capacity, I think it's 50% in June. One of the assumptions on kind of circling back on what Mike was asking about this passenger segments. So what's the assumption on leisure returning DFR? And then maybe appends potentially business? How is the team thinking about a return in demand in that respect?

  • Holger Blankenstein - EVP of Airline Commercial & Operations

  • So we are expecting a certain ramp up for the month of June. And then obviously, the high season in Mexico is July and August, where we also estimate some return of traffic. And therefore, in June, typically, what we see in our traffic patterns is 1/3 of the DFR market. And that's what we would expect this year as well, obviously, at a much lower scale than in previous years. And then July and August, we estimate some return of the leisure passengers, the price-sensitive leisure passengers.

  • Operator

  • Speakers, it appears we have no further questions. I'll return the floor to you for any closing remarks.

  • Enrique Javier Beltranena Mejicano - President, CEO & Director

  • So thank you very much. I want to finish by thanking our Board of Directors for their exceptional support in these times. Obviously, our ambassadors, as I said, I mean, I would say that probably in my entire life I had never, thanks God, get the opportunity to do what we have done, and I think they have responded with their full commitment. And I'm very thankful to the way they are reacting to the crisis. I want also to say thank you to our business partners for their responsiveness and our investors for the understanding in this unprecedented global human and unimaginable economic scenario. Thank you all for reinforcing our values. Together, we will lead our company to become stronger, and I wish you good health to you, your loved ones. And again, thank you very much for being here despite the conditions that we are in. Thank you very much, ladies and gentlemen. This conference is now concluded.

  • Operator

  • And this does conclude today's program. Thanks for your participation. You may now disconnect. Have a great weekend.