Controladora Vuela Compania de Aviacion SAB de CV (VLRS) 2020 Q4 法說會逐字稿

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  • Operator

  • Good morning, everyone. Thank you for standing by, and welcome to Volaris Fourth Quarter 2020 Financial Results Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note that this event is being recorded.

  • At this point, I would now like to turn the call over to Maria Elena Rodriguez, Volaris Corporate Finance and Investor Relations Director. Please go ahead, Mr. Rodriguez.

  • Maria Elena Rodriguez Asiain - Corporate Financing, Treasury & IR Director

  • Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining the call. With us today is our President and CEO, Enrique Beltranena; our Airline Executive Vice President, Holger Blankenstein; and our Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Jaime Pous. They will be discussing the company's fourth quarter 2020 results. Afterwards, we will move on to your questions. Please note that this call is for investors and analysts only. Any questions from the media will be taken on an individual basis.

  • Before we begin, please let me remind everyone that this call may include forward-looking statements within the meaning of applicable securities laws. Forward-looking statements are subject to several factors that could cause the company's actual results to differ materially from expectations for reasons described in the company's filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the Comisión Nacional Bancaria y de Valores. Furthermore, Volaris undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements.

  • It's now my pleasure to turn the call over to Volaris' President and CEO, Mr. Enrique Beltranena.

  • Enrique Javier Beltranena Mejicano - President, CEO & Director

  • Thank you very much, Maria Elena, and thanks for everybody for being here today. Thanks for joining us. Volaris topest priorities during 2020 were cash preservation, capacity management, cost discipline and increasing total revenues per available seat mile.

  • During the fourth quarter, we returned to profitability, demonstrating the potential of our sound ultra-low-cost business model. Within the current competitive landscape, Volaris has been able to take advantage of market opportunities, cementing its leadership in terms of passenger market share amongst the Mexican carriers.

  • During 2020, Volaris transported more than 14.7 million passengers. Despite the progress in the fourth quarter of 2020, some key challenges remain in the current period with COVID-19 case counts increasing in both Mexico and the U.S., something we will comment upon later in the call. While we enjoyed a great result in the fourth quarter, markets are still dealing with COVID-19, and that will result in a challenging demand environment. We'll continue to capitalize on our low cost position. We will continue to look for opportunities to expand our network, and we will continue to focus on cash preservation as our highest priority, as we navigate the rest of the crisis.

  • First of all, I want to express my sincere gratitude to all of Volaris' ambassadors and our Board of Directors for their passion and commitment. Our prayers go out to those impacted by COVID-19, and we thank all frontline workers, including our flight crews for their great efforts.

  • During 2020, Volaris posted one of the fastest recoveries worldwide. As measured by available seat miles, a result of our ultra-low -- strong ultra-low-cost business model, focused on the visiting friends and relatives and leisure segments in Mexico and the U.S. transborder markets.

  • Let me leave for you very important messages -- 6 very important messages that I would like to leave very clear. The first one, fourth quarter profitable results proved the potential of Volaris ultra-low-cost business model despite the current crisis environment. For the fourth quarter, the company posted an operating margin of 12% and an EBITDA margin of 37%, an EBITDA margin of 37%, an excellent result even in normal conditions. These results reflect that Volaris is truly different from any carrier in the continent and should be benchmarked and valued alongside the best ultra-low-cost airlines in the world.

  • Due to Volaris' strong fundamentals, we believe the company is a long-term winner and our results and metrics show we have an experienced team, cost discipline and a very strong focus on long-term goals.

  • The fourth quarter outcome underline Volaris' ability to deliver profitability, confirming its leadership among the Mexican carriers in both the domestic and international markets, not only from the passenger market share position, but from a profitable business standpoint as well.

  • The second message that I would like to deliver is that Volaris' cost per available seat mile ex fuel by the end of the fourth quarter closed at USD 0.0413, which means we are back to pre-COVID-19 levels. The cash levels for the fourth quarter 2020 prove the power and strength of our ultra-low-cost business model. Volaris' cost structure is its key competitive advantage in the current environment. Volaris closed the fourth quarter 2020 with the referred CASM ex fuel level mainly explained by the following measures: the first one, capacity recovery; the second one, variable cost structure; the third one, flexible labor contracts; and the fourth one, capital expenditure discipline.

  • The third message that I would like to leave very clear is that December ASM's capacity was at 102% versus same period of previous year with healthy load factors. Volaris posted one of the fastest recoveries worldwide as measured by ASMs during the fourth quarter of 2020. Capacity was 95% versus 2019.

  • the fourth message that I want to leave very clear is that we do have a strong balance sheet and that Volaris closed the fourth quarter with $506 million in cash and cash equivalents.

  • During the fourth quarter, the cash burn was 1/3 of that expected as a result of higher sales, further payment deferrals, a lower cash collateralization requirement and financing facilities. Last December, we strengthened our balance sheet through a successful primary follow-on offering with net proceeds of $164 million.

  • There's a fifth message that I want to leave very clear. Volaris current conservative fleet plan has flexibility for opportunistic growth as demand recovers. Volaris already started taking the opportunities left by the reduction of capacity from our competitors. During 2020, we launched 5 new domestic routes and 8 international routes, increasing sustainability -- substantially our market share in Mexico City Airport. Additional aircraft capacity for 2021 is under evaluation depending on the demand outlook.

  • The sixth message is how important our labor forces are for Volaris. Volaris Union this year legitimized as per the amended Mexican labor laws, our bargaining collective agreement at the beginning of this year.

  • As a conclusion, despite 2020 being a very difficult year. Volaris, today, has one of the most competitive fleet plans and engine agreements in the market. We received our concession renewal for a 20-year term. We executed one of the fastest capacity recoveries in the world. We returned to the pre-pandemic and ultra-low-cost unit levels. We capitalized the company and we guaranteed labor continuity with productive and flexible terms and conditions.

  • We are prepared to maintain Volaris as the most important airline in Mexico with strong fundamentals for the future. We want to reiterate, however, historically, our first quarter is more challenging and in pandemic times is even more so. For the first quarter, the company is experiencing demand weakness and compressed booking curves as a result of increased COVID-19 claims and the new U.S. regulations on international travel. As a result, the company's network plans for the first quarter of 2021 will be more conservative, focused on deploying appropriate levels of capacity aligned with a changing demand environment and on preserving liquidity.

  • For the first quarter of 2021, Volaris intends to operate approximately 80% of capacity compared to the same period of last year. And let me remind you that the first quarter for Volaris last year was still on track with the normality period. Even with the challenges we are seeing in the first quarter, this still represents a strong capacity comeback from the pandemic versus the global industry, which is currently operating at approximately 55% of capacity compared to the previous year. It is also -- it also shows the flexibility of our network as we respond to the changing demand environment.

  • Preparation and forward planning have always been the strengths of Volaris. We came into 2021 well prepared with the strongest balance sheet among Mexican airlines and what we believe is the most successful business model. I want to highlight, though, the proven agility and flexibility of this company to ramp up in order to take advantage of opportunities that are presented.

  • Let me pass it over to our Airline Vice President and Executive, Holger Blankenstein, to comment on revenues and on the commercial strategy. Please, Holger.

  • Holger Blankenstein - EVP of Airline Commercial & Operations

  • Thank you, Enrique. Like most countries, Mexico's aviation industry has been heavily impacted by the coronavirus pandemic. Our ultra-low-cost model has enabled Volaris to navigate successfully through this unprecedented crisis. During the fourth quarter, we achieved the following top line figures: In the domestic market, load factor was 83.5%, 6 percentage points below 2019 fourth quarter. In the international market, load factor was 71.9%, 11.6 percentage points below 2019 fourth quarter, mainly explained by the natural ramp-up of our new international destinations and capacity we added back into the schedule and started to operate in the fourth quarter.

  • Due to the decrease in no-shows and the high season of the quarter, the total network load factor was 80.2% for that period. Domestic ASMs for the fourth quarter was 99% of 2019 same period, driven by more capacity in our core markets and the optimization of frequencies and schedule. International ASMs for the fourth quarter were 86% of 2019 in the same period. Volaris operated 84% of 2019 capacity in October, 98% in November. And finally, 102% of 2019 capacity in December.

  • Total ASMs for the fourth quarter were 95% versus the same period of last year, which is the highest in the Mexican market. Volaris has more than 337 daily operations in 43 domestic and 25 international airports. The capacity in load factor represents one of the fastest recoveries of any airline worldwide. And on top of that, we were able to improve TRASM by 34% quarter-over-quarter to close to MXN 1.38 cent. For the full year, TRASM was MXN 1.235, only a decrease of 13% versus the full year 2019 despite the pandemic.

  • Total ancillary revenues per passenger reached a new record high of almost MXN 800 for the quarter, an increase of 43% year-over-year. Non-ticket revenue accounted for 48% of total operating revenues. Driven by resilience in air ancillaries and other initiatives, which I will give more detail on later. This reflects Volaris' unique competitive advantage to its virtuous cycle: lower base fares, stimulate demand, generate volume and ancillaries compensate the lower base fares.

  • In terms of operational reliability, on-time performance was 90% for the fourth quarter and schedule completion was 99.1% for the fourth quarter of 2020. Volaris has experienced an accelerated recovery versus worldwide peers, aided by our ultra-low-cost model and competitor retrenchment in Mexico. During the fourth quarter 2020, we saw that after being under stay-at-home restrictions for 6 months, people were certainly looking to travel to beach destinations and to see friends and family.

  • Volaris is among the first airlines globally to return to 2019 capacity levels materially faster than its peers. Given our focus on short-haul leisure and VFR travel, which represents 70% of our total capacity, we are not beholden to traditional business and international travel recoveries. 100% of Volaris capacity falls under domestic and short-haul international, point-to-point, which are the fastest recovering geographies.

  • Now looking at 2021. The post-holiday spike in COVID cases in both the U.S. and Mexico has led to escalating COVID protocols, travel restrictions and advisories against travel. For example, passengers traveling to the U.S. must present an electronic or printed proof of a negative COVID-19 test performed no more than 3 days before the flight. In response, since January 26, Volaris is offering antigen tests at a preferential price to our customers in coordination with the airports from which we operate to the U.S. Approximately 75% of our customers flying to the U.S. arrive at the airport with their own COVID-19 test results.

  • The marketing efforts are being focused to create a base load factor, emphasizing the ease of travel to the U.S. and our biosecurity protocols. On the sales side, we maintained our promotional activities to push advanced sales. Volaris has actively promoted safe flying through its biosecurity protocol and by going to the market with great promotions and focusing on our bus switching campaign. We are expanding our passenger base by aggressively converting first time flyers through our bus switching campaign.

  • As part of the avenues for growth, Volaris' bus switching marketing campaigns aim to leverage our point-to-point network with focus on VFR and leisure segments, which, again, are showing one of the fastest recoveries. From the 3 billion bus passengers in the Mexican market, about 30% is related to the first luxury and executive classes. We continue to generate more demand through our bus switching strategy.

  • Certainly, consumer travel confidence has taken a hit. This uncertainty has softened the first quarter demand. We are planning to implement a more conservative strategy for the first quarter of 2021. We will be cautious and flexible with capacity deployment, and we will continuously monitor booking curves with the aim of preserving cash.

  • Our strategy has shifted to playing offense. Volaris is already positioned to take off and to look for long-term growth opportunities. We continue to look for ways to stimulate demand and to grow revenue. Peers have tried to follow, but most of them are shrinking in cash mode, struggling with short-term liquidity and looking for ways to keep up with our pace.

  • With their scaling back, Volaris is without question, the airline, which stands to benefit the most. We will continue monitoring capacity reductions from competitors very closely, experimenting with new ancillaries and running targeted promotions to test stimulation potential on selected routes and markets.

  • Now talking about avenues for growth. During the fourth quarter of 2020, we started to operate 2 new routes in the domestic market: Mexico City to Campeche and Cancun to Oaxaca. We also started to operate 7 new routes in the international market, from Mexico City to Dallas; Houston; Fresno, Ontario in California; San Jose in California; and Sacramento; and Morelia to Chicago here. The ramp-up process is going as expected.

  • A core aspect of further growth for Volaris is our strategy in terms of ancillary revenues and how we continue to grow that line, including the execution of full dynamic pricing, achieving the full potential from personalization, the renewing subscription programs. We also have a co-branded credit card with 282,000 members, which gives passengers points that they can redeem on Volaris flights. The new drivers in the last months has been combinations like insurance and medical coverage, which has been strong in COVID-19 times.

  • Ancillary revenues represent 48% of total revenues, and we already belong to the champions league in terms of ancillaries. We have a line of sight to the 50% mark, placing us among the top airlines worldwide. Given the current challenging environment for the first quarter 2021, we will focus on maturing the latest destinations added to our point-to-point network without adding new ones.

  • We have integrated our chat bot into the WhatsApp messaging app, allowing us to offer customer service on the most important messaging platform in Mexico and Central America and the #2 platform in the U.S. This has resulted in cost reductions in our traditional call center while delivering better customer service for our customers. As an example of this, when Hurricane Delta arrived in Cancun last year, last October, we were able to automate services through these channels, offering immediate answers without overloading the call center.

  • Self-check-in in the fourth quarter 2020 was 86%, an increase of 3 percentage points versus the same period last year. Volaris has an ongoing digital transformation strategy looking to improve customer experience. As Enrique mentioned, for the first quarter, the company's plans will be more conservative, focused on deploying healthy capacity that aligns with the demand environment. We intend to operate approximately 80% of capacity as measured by ASMs versus the same period of last year. This still represents a strong capacity comeback from the pandemic, relative to the industry.

  • Now I would like to turn over the call to our Chief Financial Officer, Jaime Pous, to discuss our financial performance for the quarter.

  • Jaime Esteban Pous Fernandez - Interim CFO, Secretary, Senior VP and Chief Legal Officer & Corporate Affairs

  • Thank you, Holger. Now I will continue the discussion of our results in accordance with the figures filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission and Comisión Nacional Bancaria y de Valores.

  • Total operating revenues for the fourth quarter were at MXN 8 billion, and for the full year were MXN 22 billion, representing 83% and 64% of 2019 total revenues reported in each period, respectively.

  • During the fourth quarter, CASM ex fuel decreased by 18% versus the third quarter 2020 level closing at USD 0.0413 achieving pre-pandemic levels.

  • For the full year 2020, U.S. dollar CASM ex fuel closed at USD 0.0478, an increase of 20% versus 2019 as a consequence of the capacity reduction. During the fourth quarter, total U.S. dollar CASM had a decrease of 13% versus the third quarter 2020, closing at USD 0.0584. Despite the pandemic, total U.S. dollar CASM closed at USD 0.066 for the full year 2020, an increase of only 1.9% versus 2019.

  • Volaris is still one of the lowest unit cost operators in the world. This lowest cost structure is the backbone of our sound business model. Our ties to the Indigo group have brought us operational synergies along with a global benchmarking perspective and the purchasing power of a larger group that enhances our negotiating leverage.

  • During 2020, we accomplished joint selection and maintenance contract negotiations for engines, auxiliary power units, avionics and seats for our A320neo family aircraft that were ordered in 2017. The company executed an agreement with Pratt & Whitney for a total of 171 additional GTF engines, along with maintenance service in a long-term viable scheme at competitive economics. These negotiations will improve existing contracts through the life of this aircraft and with an estimated amount in the range of $300 million. This, in addition to the benefits already applying to our current fleet as part of the negotiations with those suppliers. By the end of 2020, on a full year basis, we were able to obtain MXN 4.2 billion in total benefits as a result of our cost contingency plan, of which MXN 993 million were cost savings, MXN 586 million were adjustment in timing mainly on maintenance services and MXN 4 million were payment deferrals. By the end of 2020, we have already repaid MXN 1.4 billion of such deferrals.

  • Moving on the profitability numbers. EBITDA in the fourth quarter was MXN 2 billion, giving an EBITDA margin of 37% in the quarter. EBITDA for the full year was MXN 4.5 billion, leading to an EBITDA margin of 20.5%, notwithstanding the pandemic. EBIT, in the fourth quarter, was MXN 960 million, representing 12% EBIT margin. EBIT for the full year was negative MXN 3.2 billion, representing a negative 15% EBIT margin.

  • Net income for the fourth quarter was MXN 897 million with a net margin of 11%. For the full year 2020, Volaris posted a net loss of MXN 4.3 billion, a negative net margin of 19%. Due to our net U.S. dollar monetary liability position, the exchange rate appreciation at the end of the fourth quarter led to a noncash FX net gain of MXN 1 billion below the operating line.

  • During the fourth quarter of 2020, the net cash flow generated by operating activities was MXN 1.6 billion; the net cash flow generated by investing activities was MXN 77 million; the net cash flow generated by financing activities was MXN 893 million, mainly comprising MXN 3.3 billion of proceeds from the issuance of shares and MXN 2.2 billion of aircraft rental payments.

  • Volaris has the strongest balance sheet profile among the Mexican carriers. At the end of the fourth quarter, the company registered a negative net debt of MXN 4.7 billion, excluding lease liabilities recognized under the IFRS 16 adoption and total equity of [MXN 2.8 billion].

  • Volaris net debt EBITDA ratio closed the fourth quarter at 8.7x, reflecting a healthy balance sheet relative to the industry standard in the current environment. Volaris' financial debt is used solely to invest in the growth of the business. As of December 31, 2020, cash and cash equivalents were MXN 10 billion, MXN 2 billion above 2019 close of the year, representing 46% of the last 12 months operating revenues.

  • As previously mentioned, we closed the year USD 506 million in cash and cash equivalents, mainly denominated in U.S. dollar currency. Average daily cash burn for the fourth quarter was better than expected, only 1/3 of the estimated amount, driven by higher-than-expected total sales, further payment deferral negotiations and lower cash collateralization requirements on financing facilities.

  • As we look into the year ahead, from a seasonal standpoint, the first quarter of the year is historically the most challenging in terms of profitability. We are currently negotiating for additional extended payment periods and discounts with most of our suppliers. For the first quarter 2021, we expect an average daily cash burn of approximately $1.2 million, mainly driven by softer sales, payment related to the previous quarter high season expenses and repayments from 2020, including $70 million related to fuel expense and $19 million related to aircraft rental deferrals.

  • The company expects to be cash flow breakeven or even positive in the fourth quarter of 2021, if everything remains constant. The company will continue to reduce costs, aiming to achieve a CASM ex fuel level similar to 2019 by the second half of 2021. However, given the expected reduction in capacity and aircraft utilization, which will be in addition to typical seasonality, our first quarter CASM level is expected to be higher than the fourth quarter level.

  • Moving on to fleet. During the fourth quarter of 2020, the company returned one A319 aircraft and incorporated 3 new A320neo aircraft, ending the year with 86 net aircraft with an average age of 5.3 years. For the first quarter 2021, we expect to receive 1 A320neo aircraft and redeliver 1 A319, closing the quarter with a percentage of neo fleet at 36%.

  • Considering that the fuel expense line represents approximately 38% of total expenses, our neo aircraft transition plan will keep us driving fuel efficiency towards a lower CASM and support our win initiative commitment. In November 2020, Volaris was selected as a component of the Dow Jones Sustainability MILA Pacific Alliance Index. We remain committed to our ESG initiatives.

  • In December 2020, Volaris concluded an upsized, primary follow-on equity offering, in which the company offered [134.1 million] of its ordinary participation certificates in the form of ADSs at a price to the public of USD 11.25 per ADS in the U.S. and other countries outside of Mexico, pursuant to the company's shelf registration statement filed with the SEC. The offering was 4.4x oversubscribed based offering. We thank these (inaudible) of investors for having confidence in our business. The company currently intends to use the net proceeds of approximately $164.4 million to continue playing an offensive strategy.

  • In the face of this industry disruption, the company is not providing guidance on earnings. We will note that the recent decline in demand will result in difficult revenue environment for the next few months. Our focus today continues to be cash preservation and return to profitability. The mentioned equity issuance has provided a solid balance sheet and will enable Volaris to emerge stronger on the other side of the pandemic.

  • Now I'll pass it over to Enrique for closing remarks.

  • Enrique Javier Beltranena Mejicano - President, CEO & Director

  • Thank you very much, Jaime. The crisis always delivers both risks and opportunities. Volaris has focused on looking for the opportunities that have been created as a result. We have demonstrated over the last 9 months that we know how to manage a crisis well. The fourth quarter shows the strength of Volaris' business model. Volaris will continue to leverage its ultra-low-cost structure to capitalize on growth opportunities.

  • We see 2021 as a story of two halves, the challenging first half for the year -- of the year in terms of demand and the second half with signs of recovery. Broad vaccine availability and continued vaccination progress should drive returning confidence in travel, specifically in the U.S. and therefore, soften or even eliminate recent travel restrictions. Volaris has successfully navigated these challenges arising from the pandemic effects to the outstanding work of our ambassadors. I'm convinced that their passion will continue to get us through these difficult times.

  • I particularly want to express my sincere gratitude to all of them, to our Board of Directors, to our investors, bankers, lessors, suppliers, but most important, to the great team that has been working and the directors of this company that their tireless efforts and commitment in this challenging 2012. The entire Volaris family makes me look forward positively to 2021. Operator, please open the line for questions.

  • Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) And the first question comes from Duane Pfennigwerth with Evercore.

  • Duane Thomas Pfennigwerth - Senior MD

  • I wanted to ask you on your thoughts on seasonality going forward, not necessarily in the first quarter, but really post recovery with potentially a lower level of business or corporate travel. How did you think about the seasonality of the network and the seasonality of earnings going forward?

  • Holger Blankenstein - EVP of Airline Commercial & Operations

  • Well, our business model has been very much focused on the VFR and leisure segment, the price-sensitive segment. We do have a small business component, which is the small and medium-sized enterprise. We don't see any material change in the seasonality pattern that we experienced pre pandemic because we are operating mostly in those niches. We might be adding more capacity to some of the more -- the bigger O&Ds in the market. So we might be even able to smooth out some of the seasonality we saw pre pandemic. But it's going to be mostly the same, Duane.

  • Duane Thomas Pfennigwerth - Senior MD

  • That's helpful. And then just with respect to transborder, can you just remind us how much of that is U.S. point-of-sale or U.S. originating? And have you seen any stabilization in that U.S. originating demand since these policy changes late January?

  • Holger Blankenstein - EVP of Airline Commercial & Operations

  • So regarding point-of-sale, pre pandemic, it was pretty much 50-50 originating in the U.S. and originating in Mexico and Central America. Currently, our U.S. dollar-denominated collections are 44% of total revenues. And we have lately seen some disbalance in the north and southbound legs. We are seeing more demand going northbound and less demand going southbound, which we believe is temporary. And as the vaccination programs roll out in the U.S., that consumer confidence should come back in the second and third quarter, the southbound one.

  • Duane Thomas Pfennigwerth - Senior MD

  • Makes sense. And maybe just to close there. So this policy went into effect late January. Obviously, initially, it was a shock to the system. You've been able to put some testing in place in airports, et cetera. So have you seen those booking patterns stabilize since late January?

  • Holger Blankenstein - EVP of Airline Commercial & Operations

  • Currently, we are still seeing relatively low booking curves and the shortening of the booking window. So currently, in the short term, we're not seeing any stabilization yet. We are closely observing the Easter high season, which should kick in, in March and the first week of April. And we expect to see some stabilization around that time.

  • Operator

  • And the next question comes from Helane Becker with Cowen.

  • Helane Renee Becker-Roukas - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • So I have just 2 questions. One is, if you can comment on how spring break bookings are trending, sort of Holy Week? And I'm kind of wondering if you're seeing strong demand there?

  • Holger Blankenstein - EVP of Airline Commercial & Operations

  • Thanks, Helane. Regarding the spring break, as most of our markets in the U.S. are focused on the VFR segment, we usually don't see a spike in the spring break itself. However, there are some domestic routes that could be benefited by this effect, mainly in the beach destinations.

  • More important for Volaris is the impact of the high season around Easter, just after spring break, which is in the first part this year, touching March, I think, the last weekend, which is the March quarter. And most of it -- of that high -- Easter high season is going to be falling into April, the second quarter this year.

  • For Easter, the booking trends are still below the regular patterns due to the current uncertainty and the shortening of the booking window. But there might be some strong flows in booking volume, if consumer confidence returns, as we expect the COVID infections -- we are seeing that COVID detections are dropping in the U.S. and somewhat in Mexico as well. And the vaccination programs are being rolled out.

  • So both factors will contribute to the return of travel demand and consumer confidence. So we're observing that last-minute booking -- that close-in booking very, very carefully. Too early to say yet, but we are pretty -- we're cautiously optimistic for the Easter high season.

  • Helane Renee Becker-Roukas - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • Got you. And then for my follow-up question, what drove the year-over-year growth in ancillaries? Like could you point to any specific products or services or pricing changes that you made? I mean I know that once you get people on board, your uptake is pretty high, obviously. But can you -- is there anything that specifically drove that?

  • Holger Blankenstein - EVP of Airline Commercial & Operations

  • Yes. I would say there's 3 things: Number one, we did tweak the baggage policy, and we're selling a lot more carry-on-bag and check bags, as in ancillary, which was previously bundled into our fare classes. Number two, we have been optimizing pricing. We've implemented a revenue management system that automatically optimizes pricing depending on customer type, time to departure, seasonality and so on. And then thirdly, we've launched some new combos, like insurance combo, flexibility combo and some of that includes -- obviously, in the COVID times, people are more likely to buy an insurance -- health insurance combo and flexibility combo. So that has really helped us on the ancillary side.

  • Operator

  • And your next question comes from Mike Linenberg with Deutsche Bank.

  • Michael John Linenberg - MD and Senior Company Research Analyst

  • Enrique, Holger, Jaime, I got to tell you a 37% EBITDA margin, that's pretty awesome. So you guys should be proud as an organization.

  • Enrique Javier Beltranena Mejicano - President, CEO & Director

  • Thank you very much.

  • Michael John Linenberg - MD and Senior Company Research Analyst

  • Couple of questions here. Enrique or Holger, I think you may have mentioned that, I think, 75% of your customers show up at the airport for transborder flights with already having proof of the negative COVID tests. Presumably, the remaining 25% are you offering a program where they can get tested? Do they have to get it at the airport? Or is there some portion of people who show up who unfortunately get turned away and don't take the flight because they can't get it fast enough or they're not willing to pay at the airport? I'm just -- I'm curious, the dynamic around that.

  • Holger Blankenstein - EVP of Airline Commercial & Operations

  • Yes. So what we're offering at the airport is an antigen test, which is totally viable for flying into the U.S. and we're offering that in cooperation with a Mexican lab at preferential rates. It's very simple. If you don't have your test, you go in there. I think it costs $20 or $25, and you have your results in 15 minutes. And it's validated by the lab that are operating in all airports -- all the airports that we use to fly to the U.S. So it's a very simple procedure. It's very fast, and we've seen a good uptake of that service.

  • Michael John Linenberg - MD and Senior Company Research Analyst

  • Okay. No, that's great. And Holger. Just one other -- you mentioned earlier about during the pandemic as you were expanding or growing and looking at market opportunities, you were focusing on some of the larger O&Ds maybe to sort of balance out your network. And when I think about larger O&Ds, I look at markets like Mexico City to Dallas, Mexico City to Houston. Those weren't the type of markets that Volaris would have initiated 3 or 4 years ago. I'm curious how the rollout of those markets is working for you versus like a Chicago-Morelia or Chicago-Leon, which are sort of -- I sort of think of traditional Volaris markets? I mean, because these are big markets, and there's a sizable amount of business traffic, there's SMEs. There's also good VFR and there's -- even there's some leisure. How -- what's the competitive response is really what I'm getting to? Because those are highly contested markets.

  • Holger Blankenstein - EVP of Airline Commercial & Operations

  • Right, Michael. So what we look at is where there was capacity gaps left behind by some of the struggling competitors. And we found that mostly in the large market, there would be an opportunity. The good thing about the large market is that it has a combination precisely, as you mentioned, of our traditional VFR, the price-sensitive leisure, but probably also a little bit more of a business component. So we've not only added larger destinations in the U.S. like Dallas and Houston, which has been ramping up nicely. But also with increased frequencies to Mexico-Cancun, Mexico-Monterrey, Mexico-Guadalajara as some examples. So yes, as we become the largest player in Mexico and we are growing in Mexico City, naturally, we will also add some of the larger O&Ds from Mexico cities.

  • Michael John Linenberg - MD and Senior Company Research Analyst

  • Okay. Very good. And just one last quick one for Jaime. What is the -- in your operating expenses, what is that contra expense that operating income that runs through the income statement? Can you just remind us what that is again?

  • Jaime Esteban Pous Fernandez - Interim CFO, Secretary, Senior VP and Chief Legal Officer & Corporate Affairs

  • That's the incorporation of the Q3 A320neos, the sale and leaseback transaction from those 3 aircraft.

  • Michael John Linenberg - MD and Senior Company Research Analyst

  • That's the sale-leaseback. That's the gain. Okay. That makes sense, which is around MXN 160 million.

  • Jaime Esteban Pous Fernandez - Interim CFO, Secretary, Senior VP and Chief Legal Officer & Corporate Affairs

  • That's correct.

  • Enrique Javier Beltranena Mejicano - President, CEO & Director

  • That's correct.

  • Michael John Linenberg - MD and Senior Company Research Analyst

  • Okay. And that will continue because it's amortized over the life of the lease, right? So we'll continue to see something in that?

  • Jaime Esteban Pous Fernandez - Interim CFO, Secretary, Senior VP and Chief Legal Officer & Corporate Affairs

  • That's correct.

  • Operator

  • And your next question comes from Pablo Monsivais with Barclays.

  • Pablo Monsivais Mendoza - Assistant VP & Lead Research Analyst

  • I have 2 quick ones. The first one is regarding your outlook for the first quarter of this year. You mentioned that international demand could remain weak for the first quarter. But can you please shed some light on the domestic side? Should we expect it to be at pre-COVID levels, if not slightly higher?

  • And my second question would be on the international demand. Is the weakness that we're seeing for the first quarter only attributed to the COVID test restrictions from the U.S.? Or are you seeing some demand being weak in some routes? Can you please shed more light there as well?

  • Holger Blankenstein - EVP of Airline Commercial & Operations

  • So let me talk about the international market first. So clearly, with the spike in COVID cases in our large destinations in the U.S., the Bay Area, Los Angeles, Chicago, and even Texas, we've seen a natural decline in travel demand in the first quarter. It basically started in the last week of December going into January in the first quarter. And that was compounded with the new travel free COVID -- sorry, the COVID test requirements that came into effect late January. So I think it's a combination of both things that have dampened travel demand for the first quarter.

  • As I said before, we are cautiously optimistic with the vaccination efforts that are going on in the U.S. and the percentage of population that has been vaccined in the U.S. that confidence -- consumer confidence and travel demand will return shorter rather than later. And that's why we're observing very closely the Easter bookings. So that's for the international side.

  • For the domestic side, demand has been stronger than in the international market, even going into the first quarter, but has been also affected by a spike in COVID cases in Mexico and by stay-at-home orders and the red traffic light that has been put in place by local governments and states in Mexico for example, in Guadalajara, Jalisco and in Mexico City, but also in Quintana Roo, Cancun, for example. So overall, domestic demand is a little bit stronger, but has also been affected.

  • Operator

  • And the next question comes from Rogério Araújo with UBS.

  • Rogério Araújo - Director and Equity Research Analyst

  • Congratulations on these great results. Just a confirmation before I make my questions. So you said about the sale-leaseback transactions, the gain was MXN 760 million, is that correct?

  • Jaime Esteban Pous Fernandez - Interim CFO, Secretary, Senior VP and Chief Legal Officer & Corporate Affairs

  • No, that's with respect to the full year, in which we have certain sale-leasebacks. The number as by Michael works only with respect to the fourth quarter, which corresponds to 3 aircraft.

  • Rogério Araújo - Director and Equity Research Analyst

  • Okay. And how much was that in terms of Mexican pesos?

  • Jaime Esteban Pous Fernandez - Interim CFO, Secretary, Senior VP and Chief Legal Officer & Corporate Affairs

  • It was for the fourth quarter, MXN 162 million and for the full year, MXN 730 million.

  • Rogério Araújo - Director and Equity Research Analyst

  • Okay. Perfect. And so my questions are, first one regarding the international flights. I think U.S. have announced a 7-day quarantine, but they haven't implemented. Do you have any news if this will be implemented at some point? And if so, how this could impact international operations further? That's my first one.

  • Holger Blankenstein - EVP of Airline Commercial & Operations

  • So currently, the only requirement to travel by air to the U.S. is a COVID test. And that can be a PCR test or an antigen test, which is relatively quickly done. That's it.

  • Rogério Araújo - Director and Equity Research Analyst

  • Okay. And so quarantine is out of the table at this moment? Or they are still figuring out a way of implementing that? Do you know? I know it's -- of course, not up to you, but you may be more aware of...

  • Enrique Javier Beltranena Mejicano - President, CEO & Director

  • You need to follow the state and local on the regulations on quarantine of the destinations. And we normally provide information at our web depending on the flight that you are taking, and it changes from route to route.

  • Rogério Araújo - Director and Equity Research Analyst

  • Okay. So your expectation is that this will not be broadly implemented. Is that correct?

  • Enrique Javier Beltranena Mejicano - President, CEO & Director

  • Correct. We believe it won't be implemented, especially after the article that you can read today in Wall Street Journal, which shows that 73% of the cases have dropped.

  • Rogério Araújo - Director and Equity Research Analyst

  • Okay. And my other question is very 2 quick ones. One is on the fuel efficiency, there has been a great improvement. Is this related to the fleet engaging to and the neo deliveries or something else? And also, if you could give us more color on the hedge losses in fourth Q, if it's noncash? And what is it exactly?

  • Jaime Esteban Pous Fernandez - Interim CFO, Secretary, Senior VP and Chief Legal Officer & Corporate Affairs

  • Okay. On the fuel efficiency, a lot of it comes from the reduction in capacity, most of it. And obviously, we incorporated 7 new A320neo family that has 18% lower consumption, which helps also the fuel line, no? And with respect with the hedging, the cash impact for the quarter was almost 0, no?

  • Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) The next question comes from Josh Milberg with Morgan Stanley.

  • Joshua Milberg - Equity Analyst

  • I had a first question on your growth plans, and if you could just talk about how you see the future opportunity breaking down from a geographic standpoint, potentially between Mexico City domestic, other domestic and Mexico-U.S. cross-border and maybe looking a little bit longer term? And then specifically on Mexico City, given that you mentioned this continued focus on VFR, I'm guessing not, but with your move -- your growth in Mexico City, I should say, I wanted to know if you're doing any product adjustments to potentially attract business-oriented or higher-income customers that might have otherwise gravitated to Aeromexico and Interjet in the past.

  • Holger Blankenstein - EVP of Airline Commercial & Operations

  • Thank you, Josh. So we've publicly stated that we are looking at opportunities in the domestic market, mostly in Mexico City because that's where the biggest capacity gap is to pre-COVID levels. If you look at where Interjet and Aeromexico operated, so we are taking advantage of that opportunity. We are also continuing with our point-to-point network expansion in secondary cities in Mexico to our main beach destinations here in Mexico with more frequencies and new routes. And then selective U.S. expansion into the VFR niches and some of the larger urban areas. We've, for example, launched Dallas and Houston for Mexico City in the fourth quarter.

  • On top of that, we are excited to say that Costa Rica has come back to Category 1, as a country, has been upgraded by the FAA to Category 1, which allows us to retake our growth trajectory in Central America. And that's another avenue of growth that we are pursuing in 2021.

  • Enrique Javier Beltranena Mejicano - President, CEO & Director

  • In terms of the mode, we are absolutely no thinking about making any change driven by the disappearance of both Interjet or the rebalancing of capacity of Aeromexico. We think that our strategy and our cost is so important, and we think that it has been so successful that we have really no meaningful reasons to think about doing things the way they were doing it.

  • Joshua Milberg - Equity Analyst

  • Okay. That's great color, Enrique and Holger. Maybe just one more on my side. I know you guys aren't giving much guidance at this stage and that the situation is also pretty fluid. But I was just hoping you could give a little bit of an indication on how your unit revenue performance is trending thus far in the first quarter. And also, to what extent these restrictions on cross-border have meant, needing to give some added incentives, some added pricing concessions to customers on those routes?

  • Enrique Javier Beltranena Mejicano - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes, Josh, look, I think Holger has been absolutely clear about the reduction of traffic. And as a result of that, I mean, we had to reduce prices, again. And our TRASM is going to be affected in the first quarter. And obviously, that means that the company profitability will be impacted in the first quarter. But it is important also to say that on the other side, the lower base fares, as you see in the last quarter, are being kind of compensated by the ancillary revenues, who have been performing tremendously well. I mean what we're seeing is, yes, we needed a reduction in fares in order to incentivate the traffic, and we had to do it again during the first quarter, but the ancillary revenues are sustaining themselves at a very good level.

  • Operator

  • And there are no further questions at this time.

  • Enrique Javier Beltranena Mejicano - President, CEO & Director

  • So thank you very much to everybody. Thank you very much for being here. Again, tremendous work from our directors' team, and in general, the Volaris team. I congratulate them again and I thank them for all the efforts that they've been doing. Working out from home, working out from different places in a very, very difficult environment shows only the resiliency of the team, and I really appreciate everything you have done. Thanks to everybody hearing this presentation this morning. And we wish you that we stay healthy, and we can keep on performing the way we have been in the last quarter.

  • Holger Blankenstein - EVP of Airline Commercial & Operations

  • Thank you very much.

  • Operator

  • Thank you. And this concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.