Vital Farms Inc (VITL) 2026 Q1 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

  1. 摘要
    • Q1 2026 營收為 $187.2M,年增 15.4%;毛利率 28.3%(去年同期 38.5%);本季轉為虧損,淨損 $1.5M(去年同期淨利 $16.9M);EPS -$0.03(去年同期 $0.37)
    • 下修 2026 年指引:營收預估 $775M-$800M(原先更高),調整後 EBITDA 預估 $0-$10M(包含 $32M 供應管理成本);毛利率預計 Q4 回升至 30%,2027 年 EBITDA margin 回到雙位數
    • 市場反應未明確揭露
  2. 成長動能 & 風險
    • 成長動能:
      • 持續擴大分銷,預計 2026 年 TDP 增加 15%-25%,全年 TDP 年增幅創上市以來新高
      • 消費者對 premium outdoor access 蛋品類需求持續成長,2026 年 YTD 該品類量年增 32%
      • 品牌忠誠度高,現有消費者 buy rate 持續提升,Q1 單戶購買量較過去八季均值高 2%
      • 與零售商合作深化,取得多項分銷與品類管理新合約
    • 風險:
      • 價格落差過大導致新戶轉換率顯著下滑,Q1 新戶占比由過去 55% 降至 50%
      • 供應過剩導致需以低價銷售至 breaker channel,壓抑毛利與 EBITDA
      • 行業競爭加劇,commodity 蛋價處於歷史低點,壓力傳導至 premium 品類
      • 成本結構調整需時,2026 年為毛利與 EBITDA 低點,部分成本效益要到 2027 年才顯現
  3. 核心 KPI / 事業群
    • Q1 營收 $187.2M,年增 15.4%,主因為銷量提升 $34.7M,但價格/組合下滑 $9.7M
    • Q1 毛利率 28.3%,去年同期 38.5%,主因 breaker channel 佔比提升及促銷增加
    • Q1 調整後 EBITDA $5M(2.7% margin),去年同期 $27.5M(16.9% margin)
    • Q1 PDPs(分銷點)149.8,Q4 2025 為 144.8,Q1 2025 為 115.8,預計 Q4 2026 達 170-175
    • 現有消費者 buy rate 較過去八季均值高 2%,新戶占比由 55% 降至 50%
  4. 財務預測
    • 2026 年營收預估 $775M-$800M
    • 2026 年毛利率預計 Q4 回升至 30%,2027 年恢復至雙位數 EBITDA margin
    • 2026 年 CapEx 預估 $70M-$75M(原預估高於此,因 Seymour 廠與 accelerator farms 暫緩)
  5. 法人 Q&A
    • Q: 現行競爭環境是否為新常態?長期毛利與 EBITDA 目標是否仍具參考性?
      A: 管理層強調即使價格維持低檔,仍有信心靠自身調整回到健康毛利與 EBITDA 水準,並不假設行業價格回升。
    • Q: 供應過剩管理的具體做法與成本分布?breaker channel 與農戶減產的比重?
      A: 短期以 breaker channel(低價/無收入渠道)為主,較快消化庫存;農戶減產需逐戶協議,較慢但長期有效。Q2 會承擔大部分 $32M 供應管理成本,下半年成本顯著下降。
    • Q: 現金流與債務協議狀況?
      A: 預計今年將動用循環信貸,主要關注 3.5x 淨槓桿與 1.35x 固定費用覆蓋率,已與銀行積極溝通。
    • Q: 退出 butter 事業的考量?有無其他選項?
      A: 評估過多種方案,最終認為專注蛋品最能發揮競爭優勢與資本效益,退出 butter 可釋放現金並提升毛利。
    • Q: 現有消費者與新戶動態?價格調整主要目標?
      A: 現有消費者 buy rate 持續提升,流失率低,主要壓力在新戶轉換,價格調整重點在吸引新戶嘗試。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 AI 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good day, and thank you for standing-by. Welcome to Vital Farms first-quarter 2026 earnings conference call and webcast. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

    大家好,感謝您稍候等候。歡迎收聽 Vital Farms 2026 年第一季財報電話會議與網路直播。(接線員指示) 請注意,今天的會議將被錄音。

  • I would now like to hand it over to your host, Brian Shipman, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

    現在我想把電話交給今天的主持人——投資人關係副總裁 Brian Shipman。請開始。

  • Brian Shipman - Investor Relations

    Brian Shipman - Investor Relations

  • Good morning, and welcome to Vital Farms first-quarter 2026 earnings conference call and webcast. Joining me today are Russell Diez-Canseco, Vital Farms' Executive Chairperson, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Thilo Wrede, the company's Chief Financial Officer.

    各位早安,歡迎參加 Vital Farms 2026 年第一季財報電話會議與網路直播。今天與我一同出席的有 Russell Diez-Canseco,Vital Farms 的執行董事長、總裁兼執行長;以及公司財務長 Thilo Wrede。

  • By now, everyone should have access to the company's first-quarter 2026 earnings press release issued this morning. During today's call, management may make forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. These statements are based on management's current expectations and beliefs and do involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those described in these forward-looking statements.

    截至目前,大家應該都已取得公司今天上午發布的 2026 年第一季財報新聞稿。在今天的電話會議中,管理層可能會在聯邦證券法所定義的範圍內作出前瞻性陳述。這些陳述係基於管理層目前的預期與信念,並涉及可能導致實際結果與這些前瞻性陳述所描述內容出現重大差異的風險與不確定性。

  • Please refer to today's press release, the company's quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the fiscal quarter ended March 29, 2026, that was filed with the SEC today, as well as the company's other SEC filings for a detailed discussion of the risks that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied in any forward-looking statements made today.

    請參閱今日新聞稿、公司截至 2026 年 3 月 29 日止會計季度的 Form 10-Q 季度報告(已於今日向美國證券交易委員會 SEC 提交),以及公司其他 SEC 申報文件,以了解可能導致實際結果與今日所作任何前瞻性陳述明示或暗示內容出現重大差異之風險的詳細討論。

  • Please refer to today's press release and presentation, each available on the Investor Relations section of our website for a reconciliation of the non-GAAP measures referenced in today's call, including adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA margin to their most directly comparable GAAP measures. While the company believes these non-GAAP financial measures provide useful information for investors, the presentation of this information is not intended to be considered in isolation or as a substitute for the financial information presented in accordance with GAAP. (Event Instructions)

    請參閱今日新聞稿與簡報(皆可於本公司網站投資人關係專區取得),以了解今日電話會議所提及之非 GAAP 指標(包括調整後 EBITDA 與調整後 EBITDA 利潤率)與其最直接可比之 GAAP 指標之調節表。雖然公司認為這些非 GAAP 財務衡量指標能為投資人提供有用資訊,但呈現此等資訊並非意在單獨考量,亦不應作為依 GAAP 編製之財務資訊的替代。(活動指示)

  • Now I'll turn the call over to Russell.

    現在我把電話交給 Russell。

  • Russell Diez-Canseco - Executive Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Russell Diez-Canseco - Executive Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you, Brian, and good morning, everyone. I'd like to start, as I always do, by thanking our crew and farmers. I believe they're the best in the business, and it is my privilege to work alongside them in our effort to improve the lives of people, animals and the planet through food.

    謝謝你,Brian,各位早安。我想先從一如往常的致謝開始,感謝我們的團隊與農場夥伴。我相信他們是業界最優秀的,而能與他們並肩努力,透過食物改善人類、動物與地球的生活,是我的榮幸。

  • I want you to take three key messages away today. The results we saw in the first quarter and scanner data so far in the second quarter fall short of our expectations, because price gaps reached levels that our brand could not sustain. We believe we're adapting quickly to this new more pressured environment by reducing price gaps, addressing our cost structure and managing cash. To be clear, we believe our brand will support a price premium, just not as much as we've seen over the past few months.

    我希望各位今天帶走三個關鍵訊息。我們在第一季看到的結果,以及第二季迄今的掃描數據,低於我們的預期,原因在於價差擴大到我們品牌無法維持的水準。我們相信,透過縮小價差、調整成本結構與管理現金,我們正快速適應這個壓力更大的新環境。需要說明的是,我們相信品牌能支撐溢價,只是無法像過去幾個月那樣高。

  • Finally, we see this as a reset of our expectations for 2026, but not a reset of our ambitions. The underlying opportunities that have driven our growth for over 15 years and the strengths that Vital Farms brings to the marketplace remain. We believe we can fulfill our purpose and drive profitable growth in both good and bad markets.

    最後,我們將此視為對 2026 年預期的重設,而非對我們抱負的重設。推動我們 15 年以上成長的根本機會,以及 Vital Farms 在市場上的優勢依然存在。我們相信,無論市場景氣好壞,我們都能實現使命並推動獲利成長。

  • Let me start with setting the stage a bit and remind you how we thought about this year going into it. We entered this year armed with the benefits of our work from 2024 and 2025, expanded consumer awareness and the playbook to convert that awareness into profitable growth through household trial and expanded distribution.

    我先稍微鋪陳一下背景,提醒各位我們在年初是如何看待今年的。我們帶著 2024 與 2025 年工作的成果進入今年,包括更高的消費者認知度,以及將該認知轉化為獲利成長的作戰手冊——透過家庭試用與擴大通路分銷。

  • That work was enabled by our expanded farm network, processing capacity investments at Egg Central Station and the improved workflows and data accessibility from our ERP implementation. We expected commodity egg prices to fall as the industry experienced a much milder avian influenza season and flocks were rebuilt. With that context in place, our strategy going into the first quarter was to increase investments in promotions back to levels appropriate for a market that is well supplied.

    這些工作得以推進,仰賴我們擴大的農場網絡、在 Egg Central Station 的加工產能投資,以及 ERP 導入後改善的工作流程與資料可得性。我們原本預期,隨著產業經歷較溫和的禽流感季節並重建雞群,商品蛋價將下滑。在此背景下,我們第一季的策略是把促銷投資提高到更符合供給充足市場的水準。

  • So what changed? The outdoor access subcategory in which we compete has continued to command a strong price premium at retail. However, it moved down directionally with the broader market. Against this backdrop, our first quarter promotions proved insufficient, because pricing across the category declined much more than fundamentals would have suggested, price gaps reached levels we hadn't seen in the past, and we found the limits of what our brand could sustain. We believe this increase in price gaps has driven the sharp reduction in velocities we have seen in many markets.

    那麼,發生了什麼變化?我們所競爭的「戶外活動(outdoor access)」子品類在零售端仍持續維持強勁的溢價。然而,其走勢方向上仍隨整體市場下行。在此背景下,我們第一季的促銷力度證明不足,因為整個品類的定價下滑幅度遠超基本面所暗示的程度,價差擴大到我們過去未曾見過的水準,我們也觸及了品牌可承受的上限。我們認為,價差擴大導致我們在許多市場看到的銷售速度(velocity)大幅下降。

  • It's important to note that despite these price gaps, our existing base of consumers have remained loyal. However, the rate at which new households are trying us for the first time dropped significantly. In 2024 and 2025, more than 55% of our consumers were households that had not bought us previously. That dropped to just 50% in the first quarter of 2026. This demonstrates our reduced ability to convert growing brand awareness into trial at these price gap levels.

    需要強調的是,儘管存在這些價差,我們既有的消費者基礎仍保持忠誠。然而,首次嘗試我們產品的新家庭戶數比例顯著下降。在 2024 與 2025 年,我們超過 55% 的消費者來自先前未曾購買過我們的家庭。而在 2026 年第一季,該比例降至僅 50%。這顯示在目前的價差水準下,我們將不斷提升的品牌認知轉化為試用的能力有所下降。

  • In contrast, our consumer data also shows that our existing consumers continue to be loyal and have generally resisted trading down to lower priced alternatives. Buy rates are holding up very well with units per retained household 2% higher in the first quarter than the average for the prior eight quarters. In other words, the larger-than-expected price gaps have led to a slowdown in new consumer acquisition, which shows up in market data as a slowdown in velocity. Therefore, our focus now is to reduce price gaps and our data indicates that this will make a difference.

    相較之下,我們的消費者數據也顯示,既有消費者仍持續忠誠,且整體而言抵抗了轉向更低價替代品的行為。購買率維持得非常好;第一季每個留存家庭的購買單位數較前八個季度平均高出 2%。換言之,超出預期的價差擴大導致新客獲取放緩,而在市場數據上表現為銷售速度放緩。因此,我們目前的重點是縮小價差,而我們的數據顯示這將帶來改變。

  • Our data shows that in geographies where price gaps to outdoor access competitors have widened the most, volume growth is negative. And where price gaps have remained more moderate, we continue to see healthy growth without needing to race to the bottom on promotions. That means we need to narrow these price gaps in the marketplace in a targeted way, geography by geography and retailer by retailer. That work is underway, and we believe initial efforts show positive results.

    我們的數據顯示,在與戶外活動競品之價差擴大最明顯的地區,銷量成長為負;而在價差維持較溫和的地區,我們仍持續看到健康成長,且無需在促銷上一路「殺到見底」。這意味著我們需要以更精準的方式在市場上縮小價差——按地區、按零售商逐一推進。這項工作已在進行中,我們相信初步措施已顯示正面成果。

  • For example, we recently addressed price gaps at a top 10 customer, bringing them from about 35% above a group of competing premium branded outdoor access eggs to about 25% and volumes increased by 18% after just two weeks compared to the prior four weeks. Even with price reductions, we believe we still command a meaningful premium to our most direct competitors and can earn an attractive margin.

    例如,我們最近在一位前十大客戶處處理了價差問題,將我們相對於一組競爭的高端品牌戶外活動雞蛋的溢價,從約高出 35% 降至約 25%;與前四週相比,僅兩週後銷量就增加了 18%。即使降價,我們仍相信相對於最直接的競爭對手,我們依然具備有意義的溢價,並能取得具吸引力的利潤率。

  • It will take time to fully align the cost structure with these price levels, but we believe that we can generate the gross margins and EBITDA margins necessary to deliver strong shareholder value. The other aspect of our strategy going into the year, converting a more adequate supply into distribution gains, is playing out as we expected.

    要讓成本結構完全與這些價格水準對齊仍需要時間,但我們相信,我們能產生足以交付強勁股東價值所需的毛利率與 EBITDA 利潤率。至於我們年初策略的另一面——將較充足的供給轉化為通路分銷增長——正如我們所預期地發展。

  • We're seeing strong distribution momentum with additional placements and resets expected to take effect as we move through the middle and back half of the year. Retailers are highly interested in our brand and the productive conversations with our retail partners that we mentioned on the fourth quarter call a few months ago are bearing fruit. We've secured an at least 50% TDP increase with a top three customer, negotiated direct distribution instead of going through a distributor with a top 10 customer and have been assigned the category captain role for eggs with a banner of another top three customer.

    我們看到強勁的通路動能,隨著今年進入年中與下半年,預期將有更多上架與貨架重整(reset)生效。零售商對我們的品牌高度感興趣;我們在幾個月前第四季電話會議中提到與零售夥伴的富有成效的對話,正在開花結果。我們已在一位前三大客戶處取得至少 50% 的 TDP 提升;在一位前十大客戶處談成改採直接配送、而非透過經銷商;並在另一位前三大客戶旗下的一個零售旗幟(banner)中,被指派擔任雞蛋品類的品類隊長(category captain)。

  • This is in addition to several distribution wins with customers across all geographies. All-in, we anticipate that we will add 20 to 30 TDPs or 15% to 25% over the course of 2026, and we expect to produce our single best yearly gain in TDP since going public as measured in Circana MULO+ for Shell eggs.

    此外,我們也在各地區的客戶中取得多項通路勝利。整體而言,我們預期在 2026 年期間將新增 20 到 30 個 TDP,或增加 15% 到 25%;並預期以 Circana MULO+ 的帶殼蛋(Shell eggs)衡量,自上市以來將創下單年度最佳 TDP 增幅。

  • Additionally, looking at the quarterly average, we've already ended the first quarter at 149.8 PDPs compared to a fourth quarter 2025 average of 144.8 and 115.8 in the first quarter of 2025 and expect the quarterly average could be between 170 to 175 in the fourth quarter of 2026, given the visibility we already have to commitments for new placements later in the year.

    此外,從季度平均來看,我們第一季已以 149.8 個 PDPs 作收,對比 2025 年第四季平均 144.8,以及 2025 年第一季的 115.8;並且,鑑於我們對今年稍晚新增上架承諾已有可見度,我們預期 2026 年第四季的季度平均可能介於 170 至 175 之間。

  • We're also adapting quickly to this new more pressured environment by addressing our cost structure and managing cash expenditures. Narrowing price gaps requires a higher level of investment than we anticipated entering the year, reflecting the lower prices we're seeing in the marketplace. This will compress margins more than we initially forecast, at least through the remainder of this year. There is work to do to adapt our cost structure to this environment, and we're pursuing it with rigor.

    我們也正迅速因應這個壓力更大的新環境,著手調整成本結構並管理現金支出。縮小價差所需的投資水準高於我們年初的預期,反映出我們在市場上看到的較低價格。這將使利潤率較我們最初預測的進一步受到擠壓,至少在今年剩餘期間如此。我們仍有工作要做,以使成本結構適應此一環境,而我們正以嚴謹的態度推進。

  • Much of that work across both COGS and SG&A is already underway, but we expect much of the impact will be realized in 2027 and beyond. As a result, we view 2026 as a low watermark for margins in this cycle with our primary focus this year on returning the top line to volume-driven growth. We view 2027 as the year we will bring the underlying economics of the business back to a level that appropriately reflects the value we create through our brand and differentiated supply chain.

    上述工作涵蓋 COGS 與 SG&A 的多個面向,許多已在進行中,但我們預期其大部分影響將在 2027 年及之後才會顯現。因此,我們將 2026 年視為本循環中利潤率的低點,今年的首要重點是讓營收端回到由銷量帶動的成長。我們將 2027 年視為把業務的基礎經濟性恢復到能恰當反映我們透過品牌與差異化供應鏈所創造價值的年度。

  • Actions we're taking to adapt our cost structure and underlying economics include the following: First, we're right-sizing supply. A big impact on our short-term margins is the cost of oversupply relative to our current rate of retail sales. Because we buy eggs from our farmer partners regardless of the retail sales environment, temporary imbalances between supply and demand can create a costly supply overhang.

    我們為了調整成本結構與基礎經濟性所採取的行動包括:第一,我們正在使供給規模更貼近需求。對我們短期利潤率影響很大的一項因素,是相對於目前零售銷售速度的供給過剩成本。由於無論零售銷售環境如何,我們都會向農場合作夥伴採購雞蛋,供需之間的暫時性失衡可能造成昂貴的供給堆積。

  • In the short run, this results in expanded inventories and then increased low revenue sales to the breaker channel. Since we expect the supply-demand mismatch to persist over the coming months, we're working with some of our farmer partners to manage supply through voluntary amendments to their contracts to cease production from existing blocks or delay placement of future blocks.

    短期而言,這會導致庫存增加,接著在 breaker 通路出現更多低營收的銷售。由於我們預期供需不匹配在未來幾個月仍將持續,我們正與部分農場合作夥伴合作,透過自願性合約修訂來管理供給,包括停止既有雞舍區塊的生產,或延後未來區塊的進雞(placement)。

  • In return, we make payments to the farmers to compensate them for the foregone profits, but that still represents meaningful savings versus the full cost of buying eggs we don't need. You will see the impacts of this in our results this year. We expect that these actions taken throughout 2026 will bring supply in line with our projections for the rest of the year.

    作為交換,我們會支付款項給農民,以補償其放棄的利潤,但相較於購買我們不需要的雞蛋所需承擔的全部成本,這仍代表可觀的節省。你們將在我們今年的業績中看到其影響。我們預期在 2026 年期間採取的這些行動,將使供給與我們對今年其餘時間的預測相一致。

  • Second, we're reducing COGS. The first action we're taking to reduce COGS is addressing staffing at ECS. We have adjusted our staffing plan at ECS to better match labor costs with processing volume and anticipate this to eliminate approximately $4 million of costs for the year. We're also working on COGS more broadly with feed costs being a promising target. Last year, feed accounted for roughly $125 million in COGS. Work is underway to lower our expenses, and we expect improvements to flow through our P&L in 2027.

    第二,我們正在降低 COGS(銷貨成本)。我們降低 COGS 的第一項行動,是處理 ECS 的人力配置。我們已調整 ECS 的人力計畫,使勞動成本更貼近加工量,並預期今年可因此減少約 400 萬美元的成本。我們也在更廣泛層面推動 COGS 改善,其中飼料成本是一個很有潛力的目標。去年,飼料約占 COGS 的 1.25 億美元。降低費用的工作正在進行中,我們預期改善將在 2027 年反映至損益表。

  • Third, we are managing SG&A. This week, we eliminated roles representing approximately 10% of our remote or non-ECS headcount. While these actions are never taken lightly, they are appropriate given the business reality and reflect an ability to capture savings from our ERP implementation and other innovations in our ways of working.

    第三,我們正在管理 SG&A(銷售、一般及行政費用)。本週,我們裁撤了約占我們遠端或非 ECS 員工總數約 10% 的職位。雖然這些行動從不輕率做出,但在當前的業務現實下是適當的,也反映出我們能從 ERP 導入以及其他工作方式創新中取得節省。

  • Fourth, we're controlling CapEx. We have slowed our rate of investment in certain growth-related projects to better align them with our current environment. Most critically, we will meaningfully slow the construction of our planned Vital Crossroads facility in Seymour, Indiana, and will reaccelerate only when we have more clarity on the exact timing of the need for incremental capacity.

    第四,我們正在控管 CapEx(資本支出)。我們已放緩對部分成長相關專案的投資速度,以便更好地與當前環境對齊。最關鍵的是,我們將大幅放慢位於印第安納州 Seymour、規劃中的 Vital Crossroads 設施建設,並僅在我們對新增產能需求的確切時點有更清晰的判斷後才會重新加速。

  • As a reminder, we have over $1 billion in revenue capacity from exit ECS. We've also paused the construction of our accelerator farms. We will continue to operate the six farms already built and maximize learnings from them. These two actions allow us to reduce projected 2026 CapEx by approximately $75 million, while also maintaining optionality to add back that additional capacity as early as the second half of 2027.

    提醒一下,僅 ECS 退出後(exit ECS),我們就擁有超過 10 億美元的營收產能。我們也已暫停 accelerator farms(加速器農場)的建設。我們將持續營運已建成的 6 座農場,並最大化從中獲得的學習。這兩項行動使我們得以將 2026 年預估 CapEx 下調約 7,500 萬美元,同時也保留彈性,最早可在 2027 年下半年把這些額外產能再加回來。

  • Fifth, we are exiting butter. We have made the decision to exit our butter business, ending shipments toward the end of the year. We expect that this will free up $25 million in cash this year, reduce sales by an estimated $14 million in 2026 and improve gross margin by 150 to 200 basis points starting in 2027. This was not an easy decision, but we believe it's the right one, both for its near-term impact on our economics and because it refocuses human and financial capital to pursue more productive growth opportunities. The complexity of an international supply chain in a very uncertain global trade backdrop contributed to our conclusion that this was no longer an appealing business for us.

    第五,我們將退出奶油(butter)業務。我們已決定退出奶油業務,並在今年年底前後結束出貨。我們預期此舉將在今年釋放 2,500 萬美元現金、使 2026 年銷售額減少約 1,400 萬美元,並自 2027 年起將毛利率提升 150 至 200 個基點。這不是一個容易的決定,但我們相信這是正確的選擇:一方面能在短期改善我們的經濟性,另一方面也能重新聚焦人力與財務資本,以追求更具生產力的成長機會。在全球貿易背景高度不確定的情況下,國際供應鏈的複雜性也促使我們得出結論:這不再是對我們具有吸引力的業務。

  • All of this means that we need to update our guidance for the year. Our focus now is on restoring strong volume growth. With the need to address pricing in a very strategic fashion in the market, our revenue outlook and our margin expectations have changed. In addition, because especially in the first half of the year, our supply is meaningfully higher than our demand, we are incurring extra costs to reduce our supply. With that, we are reducing our net sales guidance to a range of $775 million to $800 million for 2026 and adjusted EBITDA to $0 to $10 million. This EBITDA guidance includes the negative impact from an estimated $32 million of supply management costs for this year.

    綜上所述,我們需要更新今年的財測指引。我們目前的重點是恢復強勁的銷量成長。由於必須以非常策略性的方式在市場上處理定價,我們的營收展望與利潤率預期已經改變。此外,特別是在上半年,我們的供給明顯高於需求,因此我們正在承擔額外成本以降低供給。因此,我們將 2026 年淨銷售額指引下調至 7.75 億至 8.00 億美元區間,並將調整後 EBITDA 下調至 0 至 1,000 萬美元。此 EBITDA 指引包含今年估計 3,200 萬美元供給管理成本所帶來的負面影響。

  • The slowdown of the work on Seymour and the pause in the build-out of Accelerator Farms allows us to reduce CapEx guidance to a range of $70 million to $75 million. We assume that we will have to maintain the current level of pricing investments through the balance of the year. Even at these levels, we anticipate underlying gross margin to return to 30% by late Q4 and adjusted EBITDA margin to get back to double digits in 2027.

    Seymour 專案施工放緩以及加速器農場建置暫停,使我們得以將 CapEx 指引下調至 7,000 萬至 7,500 萬美元區間。我們假設在今年剩餘期間必須維持目前的定價投資水準。即便在這些水準下,我們仍預期基礎毛利率將在第四季末回到 30%,而調整後 EBITDA 利潤率將在 2027 年回到兩位數。

  • I also want to be very clear that the underlying opportunities that have driven our growth for over 15 years haven't diminished. We continue to have strong confidence in the opportunities presented by the premium outdoor access egg category and our ability to win over the long term, even in a challenged category and macro environment.

    我也想非常清楚地說,驅動我們超過 15 年成長的根本機會並未減弱。即使在品類與總體環境充滿挑戰的情況下,我們仍對高端戶外放養(outdoor access)雞蛋品類所帶來的機會,以及我們長期勝出的能力,保持高度信心。

  • There is a continuing secular shift in consumer preferences for clean label whole foods. Consumers continue to vote with their wallet for both premium branded and private label alternatives to the status quo. In fact, adoption is accelerating. Outdoor access eggs have grown from 8% of category volume in 2023 to 15% so far in 2026, even with commodity eggs at their cheapest in years. In fact, year-to-date alone, outdoor access eggs have grown 32% versus prior year in volume compared to mainstream eggs growing only 4% despite the lowest price in years.

    消費者偏好正持續出現結構性轉變,朝向乾淨標示(clean label)的全食物(whole foods)。消費者持續用錢包投票,選擇高端品牌與自有品牌(private label)作為對現狀的替代方案。事實上,採用速度正在加快。戶外放養雞蛋的品類銷量占比已從 2023 年的 8% 成長至 2026 年迄今的 15%,即便大宗雞蛋價格處於多年來最低水準。實際上,僅今年迄今,戶外放養雞蛋的銷量較去年同期成長 32%,而主流雞蛋儘管價格為多年最低,銷量僅成長 4%。

  • I would like to end by reiterating some of the key strengths by which I believe Vital Farms will continue to win even in a more competitive environment. We have built a brand on transparency and trust, which are rare and increasingly important to consumers. Our network of farmers and differentiated supply chain, including our own packing plant, have demonstrated real resiliency and neither is easy to replicate.

    最後,我想重申幾項我認為能讓 Vital Farms 即使在競爭更激烈的環境中仍持續勝出的關鍵優勢。我們建立了一個以透明與信任為核心的品牌,而這些特質對消費者而言既稀有又日益重要。我們的農民網絡與差異化供應鏈(包括我們自有的包裝廠)已展現出真正的韌性,而且兩者都不容易被複製。

  • We have a winning track record with our retail partners. We're demonstrating the value of that partnership by expanding our distribution and leaning further into joint business planning to drive long-term growth. And underpinning all of this is our crew. We view their capability and commitment to our purpose and values as a genuine competitive advantage.

    我們與零售合作夥伴擁有亮眼的成功紀錄。我們正透過擴大鋪貨範圍,並更深入推動聯合商業規劃,以帶動長期成長,來展現這段合作關係的價值。而支撐這一切的是我們的團隊。我們將他們的能力,以及對我們使命與價值觀的承諾,視為真正的競爭優勢。

  • In summary, the results we saw in the first quarter and that we have seen so far in scanner data in the second quarter fall short of our expectations because price gaps reached levels that our brand could not sustain. We believe we're adapting quickly to this new more pressured environment by reducing price gaps, addressing our cost structure and managing cash. We see this as a reset of our expectations for 2026, but not a reset of our ambitions. The underlying opportunities that have driven our growth for over 15 years and the strength Vital Farms brings to the marketplace remain.

    總結來說,我們在第一季看到的結果,以及第二季迄今在掃描器數據中看到的表現,均低於我們的預期,原因在於價差擴大到我們品牌無法承受的水準。我們相信,透過縮小價差、調整成本結構並管理現金,我們正在快速適應這個壓力更大的新環境。我們將此視為對2026年預期的重設,但不是對我們雄心的重設。推動我們超過15年成長的根本機會,以及Vital Farms在市場上的實力,依然存在。

  • Now let me turn it over to Thilo to walk you through more detail behind what we've shared today.

    接下來我把時間交給Thilo,請他帶各位更深入了解我們今天分享內容背後的細節。

  • Thilo Wrede - Chief Financial Officer

    Thilo Wrede - Chief Financial Officer

  • Thanks, Russell, and hello, everyone. Let me walk you through our first-quarter financial performance, and then I will provide details on our updated outlook for the full year. Net revenue for the first quarter of 2026 was $187.2 million, an increase of 15.4% compared to the prior year period. Revenue growth was driven by volume-related increases of $34.7 million and partially offset by a price/mix decline of $9.7 million. The price/mix decline was primarily driven by a higher-than-anticipated volume contribution from the breaker channel to manage an oversupply of eggs.

    謝謝你,Russell,也向各位問好。我將帶各位回顧我們第一季的財務表現,接著提供我們更新後的全年展望細節。2026年第一季淨營收為1.872億美元,較去年同期成長15.4%。營收成長主要由與銷量相關的增加3,470萬美元所帶動,但部分被價格/組合下滑970萬美元所抵銷。價格/組合下滑主要是因為為了因應雞蛋供給過剩,打蛋(breaker)通路的銷量貢獻高於原先預期。

  • With breaker prices being as low as $0.10 per dozen during the quarter, price/mix turned negative. Gross profit was $53 million or 28.3% of net revenue compared to $62.5 million or 38.5% of net revenue last year. The year-over-year decline in gross margin was mainly due to the unfavorable volume mix shift to breaker sales and elevated costs associated with supply management actions, together with the impact of increased promotional activity. Excessive breaker sales reduced gross profit by approximately $4.9 million. We consider excessive breaker sales to manage our oversupply of eggs any volume above the 2024 and 2025 average contribution of breaker volume to overall egg volume, which was 4.9%.

    由於本季打蛋價格低至每打0.10美元,價格/組合轉為負值。毛利為5,300萬美元,占淨營收28.3%,相較去年為6,250萬美元,占淨營收38.5%。毛利率年對年下滑主要是因為銷量組合不利地轉向打蛋銷售,以及與供給管理行動相關的成本上升,再加上促銷活動增加的影響。過量的打蛋銷售使毛利約減少490萬美元。我們將為管理雞蛋供給過剩而進行的過量打蛋銷售,定義為任何高於2024與2025年打蛋銷量占整體雞蛋銷量平均貢獻(4.9%)的部分。

  • SG&A increased to $44.2 million or 23.6% of net revenue compared with $31.9 million or 19.7% of net revenue last year. The year-over-year growth in SG&A was mainly due to the execution of our planned doubling from a very low base of marketing expenses and the year-over-year increase in headcount and employee-related expenses.

    銷售、一般及行政費用(SG&A)增加至4,420萬美元,占淨營收23.6%,相較去年為3,190萬美元,占淨營收19.7%。SG&A年對年成長主要是因為我們按計畫將行銷費用自非常低的基礎加倍,以及人力編制與員工相關費用的年對年增加。

  • Shipping and distribution expenses increased to $11 million or 5.9% of net revenue compared to $8.8 million or 5.4% of net revenue last year. Net loss for the first quarter of 2026 was $1.5 million compared to net income of $16.9 million in the prior year period. Net loss per diluted share was $0.03 for the first quarter of 2026 compared to net income per diluted share of $0.37 in the prior year period.

    運輸與配送費用增加至1,100萬美元,占淨營收5.9%,相較去年為880萬美元,占淨營收5.4%。2026年第一季淨損為150萬美元,相較去年同期淨利為1,690萬美元。2026年第一季稀釋後每股淨損為0.03美元,相較去年同期稀釋後每股淨利為0.37美元。

  • Adjusted EBITDA for the first quarter of 2026 was $5 million or 2.7% of net revenue compared to $27.5 million or 16.9% of net revenue for the first quarter of 2025. The decrease in adjusted EBITDA was primarily driven by lower gross profit margins and higher operating expenses.

    2026年第一季調整後EBITDA為500萬美元,占淨營收2.7%,相較2025年第一季為2,750萬美元,占淨營收16.9%。調整後EBITDA下降主要由較低的毛利率以及較高的營運費用所致。

  • Turning now to our balance sheet. As of March 29, 2026, we had total cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities of $51.4 million with no debt outstanding. The sequential decline in cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities reflects primarily negative cash flow due to an inventory building, the cost of supply management initiatives and continued CapEx investments for the construction of our planned VXR egg washing and packing facility in Seymour, Indiana and accelerator farms. Furthermore, we repurchased over 1 million shares for $20 million under our share repurchase program. And as of March 29, 2026, $80 million remained authorized under the program.

    接著看資產負債表。截至2026年3月29日,我們的現金、約當現金與有價證券合計為5,140萬美元,且無任何未償債務。現金、約當現金與有價證券的季對季下降,主要反映因存貨增加、供給管理計畫成本,以及持續投入資本支出(CapEx)用於在印第安納州Seymour興建規劃中的VXR洗蛋與包裝設施及加速器農場,而導致的負現金流。此外,我們在股份回購計畫下以2,000萬美元回購超過100萬股。截至2026年3月29日,該計畫仍有8,000萬美元的核准額度可用。

  • As Russell already mentioned, we are updating our full year 2026 guidance. We now expect net revenue of $775 million to $800 million and adjusted EBITDA of $0 million to $10 million. The EBITDA outlook reflects a negative impact of approximately $32 million from cost to manage the current oversupply of eggs via breaker sales and other low or no revenue channels and the voluntary amendment to farmer contracts to cease production from existing flocks or delay placement of future flocks that Russell had already mentioned.

    如Russell先前提到,我們正在更新2026年全年指引。我們目前預期淨營收為7.75億至8.00億美元,調整後EBITDA為0至1,000萬美元。EBITDA展望反映約3,200萬美元的負面影響,主要來自透過打蛋銷售及其他低或無營收通路來管理目前雞蛋供給過剩的成本,以及Russell先前提到的自願修訂農戶合約,以停止既有雞群生產或延後未來雞群進場。

  • The updated guidance also assumes the following: First, that outdoor access egg retail prices and breaker prices through the end of the year have stabilized at current levels. Should outdoor access egg retail prices erode further, and we have to invest more than currently planned to reduce price gaps, we will incur additional costs that will reduce revenue and profit.

    更新後的指引亦假設如下:第一,至年底為止,戶外可接觸(outdoor access)雞蛋的零售價格與打蛋價格已在目前水準趨於穩定。若戶外可接觸雞蛋零售價格進一步下滑,而我們必須投入超過目前規劃的資源以縮小價差,我們將產生額外成本,進而降低營收與獲利。

  • Second, we have high volume to the breaker channel and other low or no revenue outlets to manage our excess supply of eggs in the second quarter. Going forward, I will collectively refer to these as excess breaker sales.

    第二,為管理第二季雞蛋供給過剩,我們將有大量銷量流向打蛋通路及其他低或無營收的去化管道。往後我將把這些統稱為過量打蛋銷售。

  • Third, for volume from revenue-generating channels, we assume negative price/mix for the remainder of the year as we are reducing price counts. As the price actions start to be reflected on shelf, revenue-generating volume growth is expected to turn positive in the third quarter. We assume an acceleration of growth in the fourth quarter as these initiatives fully take hold and we see the full anticipated benefits from distribution gains.

    第三,對於來自可創造營收通路的銷量,我們假設在今年剩餘期間價格/組合為負,因為我們正在降低價格點數。隨著價格措施開始在貨架端反映,可創造營收通路的銷量成長預期將在第三季轉正。我們假設第四季成長將加速,因為這些措施將全面發揮效果,且我們將看到通路擴張所帶來的完整預期效益。

  • And fourth, we estimate a $14 million net sales reduction compared to our previous guidance due to the wind-down of our butter business. For EBITDA specifically, the guidance reflects an estimated $32 million of incremental expenses to manage our current oversupply of eggs this year. We are incurring costs from sales to low or no revenue channels like the breaker market and other measures we are taking to manage supply. All of these costs are recorded in COGS.

    第四,我們估計相較先前指引,因逐步結束奶油業務,淨銷售將減少1,400萬美元。就EBITDA而言,指引反映今年為管理目前雞蛋供給過剩而增加約3,200萬美元的費用。我們因向打蛋市場等低或無營收通路銷售,以及採取其他供給管理措施而產生成本;所有這些成本均記錄於銷貨成本(COGS)中。

  • It also reflects higher than previously anticipated promotional spending and price investments that we expect will lead to a strong shell egg volume growth recovery. And we expect to incur additional costs in association with our butter exit and addressing our SG&A cost structure. The anticipated adjustable onetime costs from these actions are already reflected in the adjusted EBITDA guidance.

    此外,指引亦反映高於先前預期的促銷支出與價格投資,我們預期這將帶動帶殼蛋(shell egg)銷量強勁復甦成長。同時,我們預期將因退出奶油業務以及調整SG&A成本結構而產生額外成本。上述行動預期的可調整一次性成本,已反映在調整後EBITDA指引中。

  • Regarding the expenses to manage the oversupply of eggs, I want to point out that the profit impact of excess breaker sales is recorded in the quarter it is incurred. On the other hand, expenses for the amendments to farmer contracts will flow through the P&L over the next several years. Since they fall under lease accounting, we amortize them over the remaining length of each individual farmers contract.

    關於管理雞蛋供給過剩的費用,我想指出,過量打蛋銷售對獲利的影響會在發生當季入帳。另一方面,農戶合約修訂的費用將在未來數年逐步反映於損益表(P&L)。由於其屬於租賃會計範疇,我們會在各個農戶合約剩餘期間內進行攤銷。

  • The cash impact is happening more quickly as we're paying farmers in equal installments over the duration they are not producing for us. We will provide an update each quarter on the impact from these costs, and we expect that excess breaker sales will likely be concentrated in the second quarter of 2026 and that farmer contract amendments will drive the majority of supply management costs thereafter.

    現金影響發生得更快,因為我們會在農戶未為我們生產的期間內,以等額分期方式支付款項給農戶。我們將在每一季更新這些成本的影響;我們預期過量打蛋銷售很可能集中在2026年第二季,而其後供給管理成本的大部分將由農戶合約修訂所驅動。

  • Regarding our expected cadence for the remainder of 2026, we anticipate an inflection beginning in the third quarter as our pricing actions show effects, our costs related to supply management begins to slow and our distribution gains from retail resets take full effect.

    關於2026年剩餘期間的預期節奏,我們預期第三季起將出現轉折點,因為我們的定價措施開始顯現效果、與供給管理相關的成本開始放緩,以及零售重置帶來的通路擴張效益將全面發揮。

  • Furthermore, we are shifting the intention of our marketing from building brand awareness to driving trial and expect to start seeing results from that by the third quarter as well. We expect the fourth quarter to show sequential improvement from holiday seasonality, driving stronger consumer demand from the full benefit of distribution gains secured throughout the year and from the cost structure adjustments taking hold across the P&L.

    此外,我們正將行銷重點從建立品牌知名度轉向推動消費者試用,並預期也將在第三季開始看到成效。我們預期第四季將因假期季節性而呈現環比改善,並受惠於全年取得的通路擴張所帶來的完整效益,以及損益表(P&L)各項成本結構調整開始發揮作用,進而帶動更強勁的消費者需求。

  • That means that we expect the shape of the year will be back half weighted, reflecting the market dynamics we are navigating, the timing of our actions and the nature of the costs we are absorbing in the first half. We currently anticipate gross margin to return to 30% by late fourth quarter and underlying adjusted EBITDA margin to get back to double-digits in 2027. This assumes no change from the new price levels that we are now targeting with the actions we described today.

    這意味著我們預期今年的走勢將偏向下半年加權,反映我們所面對的市場動態、我們行動的時點,以及我們在上半年所吸收成本的性質。我們目前預期毛利率將在第四季末回升至30%,而經調整EBITDA的基礎利潤率將在2027年回到雙位數。此預期假設我們今日所描述的行動下,目前所鎖定的新價格水準不會再有變動。

  • As more of our cost reduction efforts start to benefit the P&L in 2027, we expect margins would improve from there even at current price levels. And as quarterly supply management costs start to decline, and we are improving scale again, we expect to see a clear path back to the earnings profile implied by our long-term model.

    隨著我們更多的降本措施在2027年開始反映在損益表(P&L)上,我們預期即使在目前的價格水準下,利潤率也將在此基礎上進一步改善。同時,隨著季度供應管理成本開始下降、且我們的規模再次提升,我們預期將清楚看到回到我們長期模型所暗示之獲利輪廓的路徑。

  • Even if pricing in the industry were to temporarily deteriorate further this year, we still view our business model as very appealing with an attractive margin structure. To round out guidance, we are lowering our CapEx guidance to $70 million to $75 million by pausing construction of additional accelerator farms for the time being and slowing the construction of VXR.

    即使今年產業定價短期內進一步惡化,我們仍認為我們的商業模式非常具吸引力,且擁有良好的利潤結構。為了補充指引,我們將資本支出(CapEx)指引下調至7,000萬至7,500萬美元,作法是暫停新增加速器農場的建設,並放緩VXR的施工進度。

  • We are still very much pursuing the idea of accelerator farms to enable R&D that will lead to better outcomes for all of our family farmers. But as we are focused on limiting our cash outflow this year, pausing the build-out of the accelerator farms is a good lever to pull. Given the slower than initially expected growth this year, the slowdown of VXR allows us to more closely align future capacity needs with expected demand that will enable us to avoid adding costs to the P&L prematurely and will help with the recovery of our margin structure.

    我們仍然非常積極推動加速器農場的構想,以支持研發(R&D),進而為我們所有的家族農戶帶來更好的成果。但由於我們今年聚焦於限制現金流出,暫停加速器農場的擴建是一個有效的調節槓桿。鑑於今年成長低於原先預期,放緩VXR可使我們更緊密地將未來產能需求與預期需求對齊,避免過早將成本加入損益表(P&L),並有助於我們利潤結構的修復。

  • With these two changes, we still anticipate negative free cash flow this year due to the cost to manage our oversupply, but we currently anticipate being able to fund this with our existing cash and investment position and by relying on our existing credit facility. To be clear, this is not a change to our long-term capacity strategy or our commitment to VXR. We remain fully committed to this project and the critical role it plays in our long-term growth aspirations. We plan to continue to pace the construction of VXR to match market reality and to manage our balance sheet prudently during this transition year.

    在這兩項調整之下,我們仍預期今年自由現金流為負,原因在於管理供給過剩所需的成本;但我們目前預期可透過現有的現金與投資部位,以及動用既有的信用額度來支應。需要澄清的是,這並非我們長期產能策略或對VXR承諾的改變。我們仍完全致力於此專案,以及其在我們長期成長願景中所扮演的關鍵角色。我們計畫持續依市場現實調整VXR的建設節奏,並在這個轉型年度審慎管理資產負債表。

  • Let me close with reiterating what Russell shared. Our first-quarter results fell short of what we expected to deliver and what we believe this business is capable of achieving. We believe we are addressing the challenges we are facing, and we are confident in our updated commercial plan going forward. We've identified the specific actions that we believe are necessary, and we are moving with urgency to execute against those plans. In addition, we are encouraged by meaningful recent wins, including expanded placement with top-tier customers.

    最後我想重申Russell所分享的內容。我們第一季的結果未達到我們預期能交付的水準,也未達到我們認為這項業務有能力達成的表現。我們相信我們正在處理所面臨的挑戰,並對更新後的商業計畫充滿信心。我們已辨識出我們認為必要的具體行動,並正以緊迫感推動執行這些計畫。此外,我們也受到近期具意義的勝利所鼓舞,包括與一線客戶擴大上架與鋪貨。

  • Thank you for your time and your interest today. We are now opening the call to questions.

    感謝各位今天撥冗與關注。我們現在開放提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Matt Smith, Stifel.

    (接線員指示) Matt Smith,Stifel。

  • Matthew Smith - Analyst

    Matthew Smith - Analyst

  • Russell, you called this reset, a reset of the year, not the ambition. The industry is recovering from a multiyear impact of avian influenza. And as you look at the competitive dynamic today, is this the new normal? And if that's so, is the long-term margin target -- is that still relevant for Vital today?

    Russell,你把這次稱為重置,是對今年的重置,而不是對企圖心的重置。產業正從禽流感多年影響中復甦。就你觀察目前的競爭態勢而言,這是否就是新的常態?如果是,那麼長期的利潤率目標——對Vital而言——是否仍然適用?

  • You talked about exiting this year at near 35% gross margin and double-digit EBITDA, but there's still some action in the background that could be a longer-term drag on the margin structure from pausing farmer contracts and incurring higher costs down the road. I guess what's the confidence in getting back to that double-digit EBITDA margin even if today's environment becomes the new normal?

    你提到今年結束時毛利率接近35%、EBITDA為雙位數,但背景中仍有一些動作可能在長期對利潤結構造成拖累,例如暫停與農戶的合約,並在未來承擔更高成本。我想問的是,即使當前環境成為新的常態,對於回到雙位數EBITDA利潤率的信心來自哪裡?

  • Russell Diez-Canseco - Executive Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Russell Diez-Canseco - Executive Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • As we said in the prepared remarks, we are not assuming or waiting for a pricing recovery in the broader market to support our recovery in gross and EBITDA margins as we head into 2027. We are focused on making sure that we deliver the right economics even at these distressed prices in the market, although historically they have not been enduring.

    如同我們在事先準備的講稿中所說,我們並未假設或等待整體市場的價格回升來支撐我們在邁向2027年時毛利率與EBITDA利潤率的修復。我們專注於確保即使在市場目前這種受壓的價格水準下,也能交付正確的經濟效益,儘管從歷史來看這種情況通常不會持續太久。

  • Matthew Smith - Analyst

    Matthew Smith - Analyst

  • And Thilo, as a follow-up on the oversupply of eggs. You called out a $32 million cost associated with excess breaker market sales. Can you talk about the scope of the oversupply initiatives? When you think about the difference between the anticipated supply this year versus your current outlook, how much of the difference there is weighted between what you're sending to the excess breaker volume market versus working with farmers to pause production? Just trying to understand the scope of those two initiatives in relation to the supply dynamic.

    另外,Thilo,關於雞蛋供給過剩的追問。你提到與超額打蛋(breaker)市場銷售相關的成本為3,200萬美元。你能談談這些處理供給過剩措施的範圍嗎?當你思考今年原先預期的供給與你目前展望之間的差異時,這個差異中有多少是來自把雞蛋送往超額打蛋量市場,多少是來自與農戶合作暫停生產?我只是想了解這兩項措施相對於供給動態的規模。

  • Thilo Wrede - Chief Financial Officer

    Thilo Wrede - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes, great question, Matt. So the excess breaker market -- and to clarify, when we talk about the excess breaker market, we really talk about multiple outlets that are low or no revenue, right? That can be the breaker market, that can be wholesale. We might do donations from time to time. So that market, sending eggs to a market that doesn't really pay us a whole lot for the eggs, that is the fastest, most straightforward way to deal with an oversupply in the moment.

    是的,問題很好,Matt。關於超額打蛋市場——為了釐清,當我們談到超額打蛋市場時,其實是指多個幾乎沒有收入或收入很低的去化管道,對吧?可能是打蛋市場,也可能是批發。我們有時也會進行捐贈。因此,把雞蛋送到一個實際上不會付我們太多錢的市場,是當下處理供給過剩最快、最直接的方法。

  • Getting farmers to not produce for us is a much more enduring way to manage an oversupply. But it takes a bit of time to get that going. It's individual contract amendments that we sign with each farmer who we are asking not to produce for us. So the immediate action, the immediate outlet is this excess breaker market. You saw the impact that we had in Q1, that was $4.9 million.

    讓農戶不為我們生產,是管理供給過剩更具持久性的方式。但啟動需要一些時間。這需要我們與每一位被要求暫停為我們生產的農戶,逐一簽署合約修訂。因此,立即的行動、立即的去化出口就是這個超額打蛋市場。你在第一季看到的影響是490萬美元。

  • We talked about $32 million for the full year. The vast majority of that will hit us in Q2 as we are sending more eggs to the breaker market while we're getting the contract amendments lined up. Once we get through the first half of the year, and we have managed this oversupply that we have in the moment, and we can address it much more thoughtfully with contract amendments for the farmers. The running cost will go down quite a bit from what you will see in the first half.

    我們提到全年為3,200萬美元。其中絕大部分將在第二季反映,因為在我們把合約修訂安排到位的同時,會把更多雞蛋送往打蛋市場。一旦我們度過上半年,並把當下的供給過剩管理好之後,我們就能透過與農戶的合約修訂,以更周全的方式來處理。相較於你在上半年看到的水準,後續的持續性成本將大幅下降。

  • But because of the accounting rules, those are costs that will follow us for several years. But you asked the question about long-term margins before. On a total margin impact for the year perspective, as we get back to volume growth and the scale that comes with that, the impact on margins in the longer term will be very limited.

    但因為會計規則的關係,這些成本會在未來幾年持續影響我們。不過你先前問到長期利潤率。從全年總體利潤率影響的角度來看,當我們回到量的成長以及隨之而來的規模效益時,對長期利潤率的影響將非常有限。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Eric Des Lauriers, Craig-Hallum Capital Group.

    Eric Des Lauriers,Craig-Hallum Capital Group。

  • Eric Des Lauriers - Senior Research Analyst

    Eric Des Lauriers - Senior Research Analyst

  • So I just wondering if you could touch on your source of cash outlook here. So you have $50 million in cash on the balance sheet or so and then plan to spend another $50 million to $55 million in CapEx this year. It looks like you'll likely need to draw down on the debt facility. Could you just remind us what sort of covenants to be aware of here and how discussions with the lenders are going?

    我想請你談談你們這裡的資金來源展望。你們資產負債表上大約有5,000萬美元現金,然後今年計畫再投入5,000萬到5,500萬美元的資本支出(CapEx)。看起來你們很可能需要動用債務融資額度。你能否提醒我們需要注意哪些契約條款(covenants),以及你們與貸方的討論進展如何?

  • Russell Diez-Canseco - Executive Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Russell Diez-Canseco - Executive Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. I think your math is right there, Eric. We will start using the revolver. The two financial covenants that we are watching is a net leverage ratio, which sits at [3.5x] and a fixed charge coverage ratio, which sits at [1.35x]. We have been talking to JPMorgan for several weeks now. The process is ongoing. And once we have an update there, we'll provide that.

    是的。Eric,我認為你的計算在那裡是正確的。我們將開始動用循環信貸額度(revolver)。我們正在關注的兩項財務契約是淨槓桿比率(目前為[3.5x])以及固定費用覆蓋比率(目前為[1.35x])。我們已經與摩根大通(JPMorgan)溝通了好幾週。流程仍在進行中。一旦有更新,我們會提供說明。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Brian Holland, D.A. Davidson.

    Brian Holland,D.A. Davidson。

  • Brian Holland - Analyst

    Brian Holland - Analyst

  • Can you just maybe help -- and you've provided sort of some broad brushstrokes on the balance of the year where you expect to end, et cetera. It sounds like Q2 will be the bottom. Can you get a little bit tighter on where exactly you expect EBITDA to bottom presumably in Q2, just to help understand the rate of inflection your outlook is sort of presuming for the second half?

    你能否協助說明一下——你已經就今年剩餘期間預期的期末狀況等提供了一些概括性的描述。聽起來第二季會是谷底。你能否更精確一些,說明你預期EBITDA大概會在第二季的哪個水準觸底,以便理解你的展望對下半年所假設的回升速度?

  • Thilo Wrede - Chief Financial Officer

    Thilo Wrede - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes, in Q2, we're expecting negative EBITDA. The big impact will be that the majority of the $32 million in supply management costs that we are anticipating -- the big impact will be that the majority of this cost will hit us in Q2. The underlying EBITDA, so if you take out the supply management costs in Q2 will be probably very similar to what we had in Q1. So the shape of Q2 looks similar to Q1, maybe slightly lower revenue because we didn't have the strong performance that we had in January.

    是的,在第二季,我們預期EBITDA會是負值。主要影響在於,我們預估的3,200萬美元供應管理成本中,大部分將在第二季反映。若看基礎EBITDA,也就是把第二季的供應管理成本剔除後,可能會與第一季非常接近。因此第二季的走勢看起來與第一季相似,營收可能略低一些,因為我們沒有像一月那樣的強勁表現。

  • And then you take the EBITDA without the onetime expenses and you subtract, let's call it, 80% or so of the supply management costs for the year, that gets you to an EBITDA number that's mid- to high teens on the negative side. And so Brian, just to be clear, it includes about low 20s of supply management costs, right, low $20 million of supply management cost.

    接著你以不含一次性費用的EBITDA為基礎,再扣除我們姑且稱之為全年約80%左右的供應管理成本,就會得到一個EBITDA數字,大約落在負的中到高十幾(百分比/幅度)區間。所以Brian,為了說清楚,這裡包含大約兩千出頭的供應管理成本,對吧,也就是2,000多萬美元的供應管理成本。

  • Brian Holland - Analyst

    Brian Holland - Analyst

  • Got it. And then maybe just as we think through the balance of the year, obviously, it's been very difficult with industry dynamics to kind of even project your business in the near term. And Russell obviously outlined a number of initiatives that are within your control and particularly on the top line, getting tighter on the price gaps, distribution gains that you seem to have visibility on.

    了解。那麼在思考今年剩餘期間時,顯然在產業動態之下,要在短期內預測你們的業務一直非常困難。而Russell也明確提出了多項你們可控的措施,尤其是在營收端,包括縮小價差、以及你們似乎可見的通路鋪貨/分銷增量。

  • Maybe just from a competitive standpoint, to what extent can you or do you have visibility on what the price and promotion dynamics might look like around you to maybe give you confidence that the initiatives that you are implementing or that which is within your control will be kind of sufficient to support the glide back that you're projecting here?

    也許從競爭角度來看,你們在多大程度上能夠、或是否有能見度了解周遭的價格與促銷動態可能會如何演變,從而讓你們更有信心:你們正在推動、或屬於你們可控範圍內的這些措施,將足以支撐你們在此所預期的逐步回升?

  • Russell Diez-Canseco - Executive Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Russell Diez-Canseco - Executive Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. So we don't have clear visibility into the plans of other players in the marketplace. What we do see is that we've seen historically low pricing for commodity eggs. And to the extent that, that may be impacting the pricing and promotional cadence of other players in the premium egg space, you could imagine that that influence doesn't become much stronger in terms of adding downward pressure. There's not much more room for commodity eggs to go in that regard.

    是的。我們對市場上其他參與者的計畫並沒有清楚的能見度。我們看到的是,商品蛋的價格處於歷史低位。若這正在影響高端雞蛋市場其他業者的定價與促銷節奏,你可以想像,這種影響在增加下行壓力方面不太可能變得更強。就這點而言,商品蛋價格下探的空間已經不大了。

  • And the other thing is that, historically, we've seen that most players in this space respond to an oversupply dynamic in the way that we are, which is to say you're making some investments in price, you're also making some plans to reduce the supply overhang and get your supply back into balance with your demand. So that's historically how this has all played out over the course of a cycle, and we don't have any reason to believe it will be different this time.

    另外,從歷史經驗來看,多數同業在面對像我們目前這樣的供給過剩時,通常會採取類似的應對方式:也就是在價格上做一些投資,同時也規劃降低供給懸置(overhang),讓供給重新與需求達到平衡。因此,從過往週期的演進來看,通常就是這樣發展,我們沒有理由認為這次會有所不同。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Robert Moskow, TD Cowen.

    Robert Moskow,TD Cowen。

  • Robert Moskow - Analyst

    Robert Moskow - Analyst

  • I guess a couple of questions. One is, is the butter business losing money? And what were some of the other options you may have pursued other than just, I guess, just exiting the business? If there's consumers who buy it, is there a licensing arrangements you could have explored? It seems like reducing your presence in the store feels like a bit of a step backward just in terms of brand awareness. So I was just wondering what other options you may have explored.

    我想有幾個問題。第一個是,奶油業務是否在虧損?另外,除了我想你們是直接退出該業務之外,你們是否曾考慮過其他選項?如果仍有消費者購買,是否可以探索授權安排?就品牌知名度而言,減少你們在店內的能見度似乎有點像是倒退一步。所以我想了解你們還評估過哪些其他方案。

  • Russell Diez-Canseco - Executive Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Russell Diez-Canseco - Executive Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. I appreciate that, Rob. As we said in the prepared remarks, this wasn't an easy decision, but it was one that we put a lot of thought into, and we believe it was the right one for the business. We work with our supply chain partners to explore a variety of potential changes to the business to make it sustainable for us and to make it the right area of focus at a time when we have a lot of opportunities for both capital and management focus.

    是的。謝謝你,Rob。如同我們在事先準備的發言中所說,這不是一個容易的決定,但我們投入了大量思考,我們相信這對公司是正確的選擇。我們與供應鏈夥伴合作,探討了多種可能的業務調整,以使其對我們而言可持續,並在我們同時面臨許多資本配置與管理關注重點機會的時點,成為正確的聚焦領域。

  • And we just felt like at this time, the highest and best use of our capital and management capacity was to focus on the opportunities in the egg business. We've got much more of a competitive advantage there. We've got much more of our own differentiated supply chain there. And so that's where we saw the enduring upside potential for now.

    我們只是覺得在此時此刻,我們資本與管理資源的最高且最佳用途,是聚焦在雞蛋業務的機會上。我們在那裡擁有更強的競爭優勢。我們在那裡也擁有更多自身差異化的供應鏈。因此,就目前而言,我們認為那裡才是具備長期上行潛力的方向。

  • Robert Moskow - Analyst

    Robert Moskow - Analyst

  • Okay. And then a follow-up. You've been working very hard to expand your farmer network. It's competitive, getting farmers to join your system. And now you're kind of buying them out to reduce production. Does that impact your relationship with these farmers in any way? Like do they view -- you always take care of your farmer network. So do they feel like they're being taken care of right now? Or is there any kind of backlash from these changes?

    好的。接著追問。你們一直非常努力擴大農戶網絡。要讓農戶加入你們的體系競爭很激烈。但現在你們又透過買斷來降低產量。這會在任何方面影響你們與這些農戶的關係嗎?例如他們怎麼看——你們一向會照顧你們的農戶網絡。所以他們是否覺得目前仍被妥善照顧?或這些變動是否會引發任何反彈?

  • Russell Diez-Canseco - Executive Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Russell Diez-Canseco - Executive Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • I think the way we approach those conversations is in the same spirit as we approach our relationship with our stakeholders. This is voluntary on their part. So it's got to meet the market. They have to feel that what we're offering them is still beneficial to them and consistent with what they expected. And I think that only serves to strengthen our relationship with our farmers, treating them in this way, fulfilling our obligations and making that long-term investment in those relationships, I think, serves us well over the long haul.

    我認為我們進行這些對話的方式,與我們對待利害關係人的精神是一致的。這是他們自願的。因此必須符合市場條件。他們必須覺得我們提供的方案對他們仍然有利,並且符合他們原先的期待。我認為以這種方式對待農戶、履行我們的義務,並對這些關係做長期投資,只會強化我們與農戶的關係;從長遠來看,這對我們很有幫助。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Glenn West, William Blair.

    Glenn West,William Blair。

  • Glenn West - Analyst

    Glenn West - Analyst

  • This is Glenn West on for Jon Andersen this morning. Russell, you kind of noted some category metrics just on the outdoor access category. It's grown to 50% volume share, I think you said and up 32% year-over-year. I guess I just -- maybe you could help lay out the category. Is it like private label that's driving a lot of those share gains, more competition from new [in surgeon] smaller players? Or how is Vital sitting there in terms of share as well?

    我是Glenn West,今天早上代替Jon Andersen提問。Russell,你提到一些關於戶外可接觸(outdoor access)品類的指標。你說它的銷量占比已成長到50%,且年增32%。我想——也許你可以幫忙梳理一下這個品類。是自有品牌(private label)推動了很多份額提升嗎?還是來自新的[in surgeon]較小型業者的更多競爭?或者Vital在其中的份額表現如何?

  • Russell Diez-Canseco - Executive Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Russell Diez-Canseco - Executive Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • I'd start by saying that we have seen for more than a decade that countries like the UK that are much further ahead in general awareness of food choices and food production systems are well above a majority of eggs being produced from outdoor access flocks. I believe the UK is well over 75%, in fact. And so one of the questions we've gotten over the years is, well, how high is that for the US.

    我先說,我們十多年來一直看到,像英國這樣在食品選擇與食品生產系統的整體認知上領先許多的國家,其戶外可接觸雞群所生產的雞蛋占比早已遠高於過半。我相信英國實際上遠超過75%。因此,多年來我們一直被問到的其中一個問題是:那麼美國的上限會到多高。

  • And I think part of what underlies that question is what's the willingness of consumers broadly across the economy to pay up for a better egg in their estimation. And we're seeing growth both in branded and private label. But most importantly, I think against an increasingly challenged macro backdrop, we're actually seeing an acceleration of adoption of outdoor access eggs on a volume share basis. And that shows up in the accompanying exhibits.

    而我認為,這個問題背後的一部分在於:在整體經濟範圍內,消費者願意為他們認為更好的雞蛋支付更高價格的意願有多強。我們看到品牌與自有品牌(private label)都在成長。但最重要的是,我認為在宏觀環境日益充滿挑戰的背景下,我們實際上看到戶外放養(outdoor access)雞蛋在銷量份額(volume share)基礎上採用速度正在加快。這也反映在隨附的圖表中。

  • And so from that perspective, I think the thesis that there's a real opportunity, an enduring opportunity in premium outdoor access eggs is as strong as it ever was. And we're seeing room for brands and for private label and for us in that group.

    因此從這個角度來看,我認為「高端戶外放養雞蛋存在真正機會、且是持久機會」這個論點,依然一如既往地強勁。而且我們看到品牌、自有品牌,以及我們在這個群體中都有發展空間。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Benjamin Mayhew, BMO Capital Markets.

    Benjamin Mayhew,BMO Capital Markets。

  • Benjamin Mayhew - Analyst

    Benjamin Mayhew - Analyst

  • My first question has to do with the Vital Crossroads plant. And just thinking about when the industry might be able to adjust production and how long you're going to be able to slow roll the construction of this plant while still making the return economics make sense. If you could just reconcile kind of how you're thinking about that, that would be great.

    我的第一個問題與 Vital Crossroads 工廠有關。我在想,產業何時可能調整產量,以及在仍能讓投資報酬(return economics)合理的前提下,你們能把這座工廠的建設放慢到什麼程度、放慢多久。如果你能把你們的思考方式做個對照說明,那就太好了。

  • Russell Diez-Canseco - Executive Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Russell Diez-Canseco - Executive Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • So our focus now is returning Vital Farms to volume-led growth and we see a clear path to doing that with the pricing actions we're taking. The approach with Vital Crossroads is to pause construction at the point at which we can turn it back on and complete it in less than a year. And that means that we have a relatively short lead time to add that capacity when we have clear visibility to needing that capacity.

    我們目前的重點是讓 Vital Farms 回到以銷量帶動的成長(volume-led growth),而我們也看到透過正在採取的定價措施可以清楚達成。對於 Vital Crossroads 的做法,是在一個我們可以重新啟動並在不到一年內完成的節點暫停施工。這表示當我們清楚可見需要該產能時,我們新增產能的前置時間相對較短。

  • So we don't see the pause as impacting our medium or long-term growth plans or potential. At the same time, it gives us the ability to pause the investment until we're clear we'll need that capacity. Remember that Egg Central Station has capacity for roughly $1 billion in net revenue even at these new prices that we're investing in this year.

    因此我們不認為這次暫停會影響我們中期或長期的成長計畫或潛力。同時,這也讓我們能在確認確實需要該產能之前,先暫停這筆投資。請記得,即使在今年我們投資的這些新價格水準下,Egg Central Station 仍可支撐約 10 億美元的淨營收產能。

  • Benjamin Mayhew - Analyst

    Benjamin Mayhew - Analyst

  • And then for my second question, just more of a big picture look back over the past year as it pertains to the growth in industry supply. So a year ago today, we were in an environment that was very tight. Margins were good. And clearly, the competition rolled into the space at an aggressive rate over the following year period.

    那我的第二個問題,是更宏觀地回顧過去一年,特別是與產業供給成長相關的部分。一年前的今天,我們處在一個非常吃緊的環境。利潤率不錯。而且很明顯地,在接下來一年期間,競爭對手以相當積極的速度湧入這個領域。

  • And I'm just wondering, like when did it become really apparent that market fundamentals were deteriorating at a rate that was surprising to you and your team? I mean, just if you could just discuss that -- the journey over the last year and kind of where we are now and what the industry might have to face over the next couple of quarters in order to kind of bring back equilibrium?

    我想知道,市場基本面以讓你和團隊感到意外的速度惡化,是從什麼時候開始變得非常明顯的?也就是說,如果你能談談——過去一年的歷程、我們現在所處的位置,以及產業在未來幾個季度可能必須面對什麼,才能讓市場回到某種均衡,那就太好了。

  • Russell Diez-Canseco - Executive Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Russell Diez-Canseco - Executive Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. So it's a very fair question. Certainly, there's been an intensity of competition and competitive offerings in the premium egg space building for several years. I think that there's a real sort of secular trade up to premium eggs. That's not new news.

    是的。這是個很公平的問題。當然,高端雞蛋市場的競爭強度與競品供給已經累積了好幾年。我認為確實存在一個長期性的(secular)消費升級到高端雞蛋的趨勢。這並不是什麼新消息。

  • And we've certainly faced plenty of outdoor access competition. It preceded us. There were free range eggs before there was Vital Farms. And while we pioneered a pasture space, there are certainly plenty of entries in that premium part of the egg category across virtually all of our top customers. So that's not new news. And I think that it was not hard to see that with the lighter avian influenza impact that we saw over the last season that we would see a broad industry recovery in supply.

    而且我們確實面對過大量戶外放養(outdoor access)的競爭。那甚至早於我們。在 Vital Farms 出現之前就有自由放養(free range)雞蛋。雖然我們開創了牧場放養(pasture)這個領域,但在雞蛋品類的高端區隔中,幾乎在我們所有主要客戶那裡,都有相當多的進入者。所以這也不是新消息。而且我認為,隨著上一季我們看到的禽流感影響較輕,要預見整體產業供給會復甦並不困難。

  • Where we saw the impact on our own velocities is when price gaps to other premium branded and private label offerings grew wider than we had experienced historically. We didn't have historical experience at those wider price gaps. And we exceeded a point at which it was -- we were no longer kind of immune to them. We've always been able to command a premium over similarly positioned products.

    我們在自身銷售速度(velocities)上看到的影響,是當我們與其他高端品牌及自有品牌產品之間的價差擴大到超過我們歷史上所經歷的程度時。對於那樣更大的價差,我們沒有歷史經驗可循。而且我們超過了一個臨界點——在那之後,我們不再能對這些價差保持某種「免疫」。我們一直都能相對於定位相近的產品收取溢價。

  • That hasn't changed. What we hadn't done is been able to see with experience price gaps in some markets as extreme as we started to see as other premium branded and private label products started bringing their prices down. So seeing that, reacting to it in scan data, as you've all been able to follow along, we're taking the actions to narrow those gaps to a more sustainable level.

    這點沒有改變。我們過去沒有做過的是:在某些市場中,當其他高端品牌與自有品牌產品開始降價時,我們能透過經驗去觀察到像後來那樣極端的價差。因此看到這一點、並在掃描數據(scan data)中做出反應——正如各位一路以來所看到的——我們正在採取行動,把這些價差縮小到更可持續的水準。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ben Klieve, Benchmark StoneX.

    Ben Klieve,Benchmark StoneX。

  • Benjamin Klieve - Analyst

    Benjamin Klieve - Analyst

  • Only one for me, and that's on this excess egg supply dynamic. I know historically, you guys have been kind of resistant to the liquid and hard boiled market just because of the margin structure relative to shell eggs. But I'm wondering in this environment today, the degree to which you view that outlet as more favorable. And if that's something that you're considering, I'm wondering how quickly the supply chain could respond to that pivot and then how quickly the retail network could take additional volume from either of those two products.

    我只有一個問題,關於這個雞蛋供給過剩的動態。我知道從歷史上看,你們對液蛋與水煮蛋市場一直比較保守,主要是因為相較於帶殼蛋(shell eggs),其利潤結構較不理想。但我想知道在今天這種環境下,你們在多大程度上會把那個去化管道視為更有利。如果你們正在考慮這件事,我也想知道供應鏈要多快才能因應這個轉向,以及零售通路要多快才能從這兩類產品中承接更多的量。

  • Russell Diez-Canseco - Executive Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Russell Diez-Canseco - Executive Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes, I appreciate that, Ben. So we currently do have both hard boiled and liquid products at retail and in foodservice. So that is not a new business for us. I think it's important to balance bringing the right products to market as we build our brand and build the right solutions for both retail and foodservice customers versus the short-term actions we might take to address the supply overhang. Again, we want to make sure that businesses we're in have the right economics and take advantage of our competitive advantages over the long haul.

    是的,謝謝你,Ben。我們目前確實在零售與餐飲服務(foodservice)都有水煮蛋與液蛋產品。所以這對我們來說不是新業務。我認為重要的是要在兩者之間取得平衡:一方面是在我們打造品牌、並為零售與餐飲服務客戶建立合適解決方案的過程中,把正確的產品帶到市場;另一方面是我們可能為了處理供給過剩而採取的短期行動。再說一次,我們希望確保我們所經營的業務具備正確的經濟性(economics),並能長期發揮我們的競爭優勢。

  • And so there is a distinction, I think, between the short-term actions we'll take to right-size supply and make it fit with short-term demand, and the things we would do long term to, for example, expand our product portfolio, which I think is a much more kind of intentional path for us because of the brand we've built and the role we play in the market.

    因此我認為,為了在短期內調整供給規模、使其符合短期需求而採取的行動,與我們長期會做的事情——例如擴充產品組合——之間是有區別的;後者對我們而言是一條更有意識、更有規劃的路徑,因為我們所建立的品牌以及我們在市場中扮演的角色。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Scott Marks, Jefferies.

    Scott Marks,Jefferies。

  • Scott Marks - Equity Analyst

    Scott Marks - Equity Analyst

  • I wanted to touch a bit on some of the retailer negotiations, some of the distribution wins that you've been speaking to. Wondering if you can just help us understand what is the state of negotiations currently? How are retailers thinking about the market? And how are you pushing your product at a time when all of these dynamics are hitting the industry?

    我想稍微談一下你們提到的一些零售商談判,以及一些通路鋪貨(distribution)上的勝利。想請你幫我們理解一下目前談判的狀態如何?零售商如何看待市場?在這些動態同時衝擊產業的時候,你們又是如何推動你們的產品?

  • Russell Diez-Canseco - Executive Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Russell Diez-Canseco - Executive Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • So as we mentioned in the prepared remarks, it was always the plan this year to work with our retail partners to expand distribution, benefiting from the work we did over the last couple of years to expand supply and to be in a position to build confidence that we could keep them in good in-stock conditions as we did so. We continue to enjoy category-leading velocities on shelf. The economics of carrying our products and our brands are still critical, we believe, to overall category performance for our customers. We bring a higher price point. We bring gross margin dollars in a category that, as we've all seen, is broadly seeing major price declines across the board.

    如同我們在事先準備的發言中提到的,今年原本的計畫就是與零售夥伴合作擴大鋪貨,並受益於我們過去幾年擴充供給所做的工作,讓我們有能力建立信心:在擴張的同時,我們仍能維持良好的到貨率(in-stock conditions)。我們在貨架上的銷售速度(velocities)仍持續領先品類。我們相信,販售我們的產品與品牌所帶來的經濟效益,對客戶整體品類表現仍然至關重要。我們帶來較高的價格帶。在一個如大家所見、整體價格普遍大幅下滑的品類中,我們帶來毛利金額(gross margin dollars)。

  • So the appeal of working with Vital Farms, the brand we've built, our connection with consumers, the loyalty we've built there continues unabated. And so those conversations have been really fruitful. Our current slowdown in velocity because of these widened price gaps hasn't done anything to diminish that. So we're really excited about the impact that those additional points of distribution will bring to us as we come out of the second quarter and as we compound that with what we believe will be growing velocities in the coming months.

    因此,與 Vital Farms 合作的吸引力——我們建立的品牌、我們與消費者的連結、以及我們在那裡建立的忠誠度——仍然絲毫未減。所以這些對話非常有成果。由於價差擴大而造成的我們目前銷售速度放緩,並沒有削弱這一點。因此,當我們走出第二季度,並且把這些新增鋪貨點所帶來的影響,與我們相信未來幾個月銷售速度將回升的趨勢相互疊加時,我們對其效果感到非常振奮。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • John Baumgartner, Mizuho Securities.

    John Baumgartner,瑞穗證券。

  • John Baumgartner - Analyst

    John Baumgartner - Analyst

  • Perfect. Great. Russell, I wanted to follow up. You spoke to your price gaps relative to other premium eggs. But I'm wondering, if you cut the drivers differently in terms of the balance of pressure here, to what extent are you seeing pressure on Vital's buy rate where you need these price adjustments to get folks back into your brand relative to responding to maybe a sharper decline in new households coming into the pasture-raised market to begin with. I guess what's the balance of pressure there right now?

    很好。太好了。Russell,我想追問一下。你提到相較於其他高端雞蛋的價差。但我在想,如果你用不同方式切分驅動因素、就此處壓力的平衡來看,你們在 Vital 的購買率上看到多大程度的壓力,以致需要透過這些價格調整把消費者拉回你們品牌;相對於可能是因為一開始進入放牧飼養(pasture-raised)市場的新家庭數量出現更明顯下滑所致。我想問的是,目前這兩種壓力的平衡大概如何?

  • Russell Diez-Canseco - Executive Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Russell Diez-Canseco - Executive Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. So our analysis shows that we're not seeing pressure on our existing consumer base, frankly, at all. We're actually seeing buy rate from existing households slightly increase in Q1. So the real focus here is on bridging that gap to help encourage more households to try us for the first time and to join that brand against the backdrop of heated up promotions and lower price alternatives on the shelf. So we haven't given consumers a reason to trade down so much as we haven't given them enough of a reason to trade up to us.

    是的。我們的分析顯示,坦白說,我們完全沒有看到既有消費者基礎承受壓力。事實上,我們看到既有家庭的購買率在第一季略有上升。因此,這裡真正的重點是縮小那個差距,協助鼓勵更多家庭第一次嘗試我們,並在促銷升溫、貨架上有更低價替代品的背景下加入我們的品牌。所以,我們並不是給了消費者太多降級購買的理由;而是我們沒有給他們足夠的理由升級選擇我們。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Megan Clapp, Morgan Stanley.

    Megan Clapp,摩根士丹利。

  • Megan Alexander - Analyst

    Megan Alexander - Analyst

  • I wanted to ask about price gaps again. And on slide 8 in your presentation, I think it's really helpful for kind of framing the opportunity as you think about closing the price gaps. But I guess even in the tightest gap quartile on the left side, volumes are only growing 7% and presumably, you've got distribution within there. So the velocity is probably more modest.

    我想再問一次關於價差的問題。你們簡報第 8 頁我覺得很有幫助,能用來框定你們在縮小價差時所看到的機會。但我想,即使是在左側價差最緊的那個四分位區間,銷量也只成長 7%,而且推測你們在那裡已有鋪貨覆蓋。所以單店動銷(velocity)可能更為溫和。

  • So as you think about kind of this path to volume growth inflecting in the third quarter and more so in the fourth quarter, how much of it is the pricing reset restoring velocity versus just the new TDPs you've secured driving incremental growth? And how do you think about how long it might take for velocities to fully normalize once you've narrowed those gaps?

    因此,當你們思考第三季銷量成長開始轉強、第四季更明顯的這條路徑時,其中有多少是價格重設帶動動銷恢復, versus 你們已取得的新 TDP 所帶來的增量成長?以及一旦你們縮小那些價差,你們認為動銷要多久才能完全正常化?

  • Russell Diez-Canseco - Executive Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Russell Diez-Canseco - Executive Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes, I appreciate that. So first of all, the early impact of additional distribution across all the markets on that page, I start there. And again, we've got some preview of where we believe TDPs will get by the end of the year. That part is, I think, quite strong and the part that needs to be activated by the increased velocities. So a lot of that distribution starts showing up as we continue through the back half of the year. And I think that's where we'll see the combined impact of both velocities and additional distribution.

    是的,我理解這點。首先,我會先從該頁面上所有市場的新增鋪貨所帶來的早期影響談起。同樣地,我們也有一些預覽,說明我們相信到年底 TDP 會達到的水準。我認為那部分相當強勁,而需要透過更高的動銷來啟動其效益。因此,隨著我們進入下半年,很多鋪貨會逐步反映出來。我認為那時我們會看到動銷與新增鋪貨兩者的綜合影響。

  • Megan Alexander - Analyst

    Megan Alexander - Analyst

  • And then maybe just a follow-up for Thilo, just back to kind of the shape of the year and the EBITDA outlook. So I think based on what you said, if I heard you correctly, and if I'm doing my math correctly, I think you're kind of guiding to a low to mid-single digit type EBITDA margin in the back half of the year. So can you maybe just give us some puts and takes of as we exit the year, kind of what changes as we move into 2027 to get back to double-digits?

    接著可能再追問 Thilo 一題,回到年度走勢與 EBITDA 展望的形狀。所以我想,根據你剛才所說,如果我沒聽錯、而且我算得沒錯,你們等於是在指引下半年 EBITDA 利潤率大約落在低到中個位數。那你能否談談一些利多與利空因素:當我們走到年底、並邁入 2027 年時,哪些地方會改變,讓利潤率回到雙位數?

  • Thilo Wrede - Chief Financial Officer

    Thilo Wrede - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes. I think it's pretty straightforward, Megan. Ultimately, what changes back half of the year and then into 2027 is that some of the benefits from these cost reduction initiatives that Russell had talked about, they will take hold a lot more. Russell had mentioned in the prepared remarks that we're looking at feed costs, for example.

    是的。Megan,我認為這相當直接。最終,下半年以及進入 2027 年會改變的是:Russell 提到的那些成本削減措施所帶來的一些效益,會更明顯地發揮作用。Russell 在事先準備的發言中提到,例如我們正在檢視飼料成本。

  • As you know, feed flows through our P&L with one quarter in arrears. And so anything that we can do on feed by the time we have made changes there, let's say, by the end of Q3, we only start seeing a benefit from it in the P&L by the end of Q4. So there is this lag effect there.

    如你所知,飼料成本會以落後一季的方式反映在我們的損益表(P&L)中。因此,就飼料而言,當我們在那方面做出變更後,假設在第三季末完成調整,我們要到第四季末才會開始在損益表中看到其效益。所以這裡存在一個遞延(lag)效應。

  • The other part then to the improving margin structure is the return to volume-driven growth. With that come scale benefits, we'll get better leverage on SG&A again. And those are the factors that will help us to return back to the margin profile that we had anticipated to begin with.

    另外一個能改善利潤結構的部分,是回到由銷量驅動的成長。隨之而來的是規模效益,我們也會再次在 SG&A 上取得更好的槓桿。這些因素將幫助我們回到一開始所預期的利潤輪廓。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Brian Holland, D.A. Davidson.

    Brian Holland,D.A. Davidson。

  • Brian Holland - Analyst

    Brian Holland - Analyst

  • I know in recent months, there's been some noise on social media sort of hitting at the brand promise for Vital Farms. Obviously, myriad of moving parts here and which you've gone through in exhaustive detail this morning. I'm just curious if and to what extent you believe that has had any impact.

    我知道近幾個月社群媒體上有一些雜音,某種程度上在衝擊 Vital Farms 的品牌承諾。顯然這裡有很多變動因素,而你們今天早上也非常詳盡地說明了。我只是好奇,你們是否認為那件事有造成任何影響?以及影響到什麼程度?

  • Obviously, you talked about the difficulties in drawing in new households relative to recent periods. So I'm curious if you are able at all to isolate the impact of that on the business? And then also kind of what are you doing? What can you do to refute that social media campaign for lack of a better term?

    你們也談到,相較於近期過往,吸引新家庭進來變得更困難。所以我想知道,你們是否能在某種程度上把那件事對業務的影響分離出來?另外,你們正在做什麼?用比較貼切的說法,你們能做什麼來反駁那場社群媒體活動?

  • Russell Diez-Canseco - Executive Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Russell Diez-Canseco - Executive Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Sure. Yes, that was frustrating for us to see happen in January. But our survey work and the fact that our existing households continue to buy us and are even increasing their buy rate without any material attrition suggests that the impact has been quite limited. On the margin, it may be a reason for a new household to look elsewhere, but we're seeing a very limited impact from that.

    當然。是的,我們在一月看到那件事發生時感到很挫折。但我們的調查研究,以及既有家庭持續購買我們、甚至在沒有任何實質流失的情況下提高購買率的事實,都顯示其影響相當有限。在邊際上,它可能會讓某些新家庭轉而看別的品牌,但我們看到的影響非常有限。

  • Our work actually doesn't change a whole lot. Our approach to the way we operate and the way we talk about our brand has always been rooted in transparency and trust building. We are what we say. We do what we say, we say what we do. And the social media controversy actually didn't demonstrate any deviation from that. There were simply some players who pointed out things that we do, choices that we've made and talked about very openly.

    我們的工作其實不需要做太多改變。我們的營運方式以及我們談論品牌的方式,一直以透明與建立信任為根基。我們所言即所是。我們言行一致,我們做我們所說的,我們說我們所做的。而那場社群媒體爭議其實並沒有顯示我們偏離這些原則。只是有一些人指出我們正在做的事情、我們做過的選擇,而這些我們一直都非常公開地談過。

  • So what we're doing from here is just continuing to do that. It's the reason to choose us because we are transparent. We do tell you exactly what we're doing and why we're doing it. So from that perspective, luckily, I think thankfully, the work is pretty straightforward. It doesn't require any new behaviors from us, but simply continuing to behave the way we have historically.

    所以我們接下來要做的,就是持續這麼做。這也是選擇我們的理由,因為我們是透明的。我們確實會告訴你我們在做什麼,以及為什麼這麼做。因此,從這個角度來看,幸運的是、也值得感謝的是,這項工作相當直接。它不需要我們有任何新的行為,只要持續以我們一貫的方式行事即可。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back over to Brian Shipman for closing remarks.

    目前沒有其他問題。我現在把電話會議交回給 Brian Shipman 作結語。

  • Brian Shipman - Investor Relations

    Brian Shipman - Investor Relations

  • Thank you, and thank you all for joining us and for your interest in Vital Farms. We remain focused on the long term and look forward to updating you on our progress next quarter. That's it, and we'll talk to you soon. Thank you.

    謝謝,也謝謝各位加入我們,並對 Vital Farms 感興趣。我們仍然專注於長期,並期待在下個季度向各位更新我們的進展。就到這裡,我們很快再聊。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.

    今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位參與。您現在可以掛線。