(VIST) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to Vista's Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Webcast. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to Vista's Strategic Planning and Investor Relations Officer, Alejandro Cherñacov.

    美好的一天,感謝您的支持。歡迎收看 Vista 2023 年第四季財報網路廣播。 (操作員指示)請注意,今天的會議正在錄製中。我現在想將會議交給 Vista 的策略規劃和投資者關係官員 Alejandro Cherñacov。

  • Alejandro Cherñacov - Co-Founder and Director of Strategic Planning & IR

    Alejandro Cherñacov - Co-Founder and Director of Strategic Planning & IR

  • Thanks. Good morning, everyone. We are happy to welcome you to Vista's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Results Conference Call. I am here with Miguel Galuccio, Vista's Chairman and CEO, Pablo Vera Pinto, Vista's CFO; and Juan Garoby, Vista's COO. Before we begin, I would like to draw your attention to our cautionary statement on Slide 2. Please be advised that our remarks today, including the answers to your questions, may include forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to be materially different from expectations contemplated by these remarks.

    謝謝。大家,早安。我們很高興歡迎您參加 Vista 2023 年第四季和全年業績電話會議。我和 Vista 董事長兼執行長 Miguel Galuccio 以及 Vista 財務長 Pablo Vera Pinto 一起來到這裡。以及 Vista 的營運長 Juan Garoby。在我們開始之前,我想提請您注意我們在投影片 2 上的警告性聲明。請注意,我們今天的言論,包括對您問題的回答,可能包含前瞻性聲明。這些前瞻性陳述存在風險和不確定性,可能導致實際結果與這些言論所設想的預期有重大差異。

  • Our financial figures are stated in U.S. dollars and in accordance with International Financial Reporting Standards, IFRS. However, during this call, we may discuss certain non-IFRS financial measures such as adjusted EBITDA and adjusted net income. Reconciliation of these measures to the closest IFRS measure can be found in the earnings release that we issued yesterday. Please check our website for further information.

    我們的財務數據以美元表示,並符合國際財務報告準則 IFRS。然而,在本次電話會議中,我們可能會討論某些非 IFRS 財務指標,例如調整後的 EBITDA 和調整後的淨利潤。這些指標與最接近的國際財務報告準則指標的調節可以在我們昨天發布的收益報告中找到。請查看我們的網站以獲取更多資訊。

  • Our company, Vista is a sociedad anónima bursátil de capital variable organized under the laws of Mexico, registered in the Bolsa Mexicana de Valores and the New York Stock Exchange. Our ticker is VISTAA in the Bolsa Mexicana de Valores and VIST in the New York Stock Exchange. I will now turn the call over to Miguel.

    我們公司 Vista 是一家根據墨西哥法律組成的資本可變公司,在墨西哥證券交易所和紐約證券交易所註冊。我們在墨西哥證券交易所的股票代號為 VISTAA,在紐約證券交易所的股票代號為 VIST。我現在會把電話轉給米格爾。

  • Miguel Matias Galuccio - Founder, Chairman & CEO

    Miguel Matias Galuccio - Founder, Chairman & CEO

  • Thanks, Ale. Good morning, and welcome to this earnings call. We have an exceptional year in 2023. We have continued to deliver strong operational and financial results with double-digit growth, improved reserves, total production and adjusted EBITDA. We also secured our midstream capacity in key projects, which underpin our updated production target for 2026.

    謝謝,艾爾。早安,歡迎參加本次財報電話會議。 2023 年是我們不平凡的一年。我們繼續實現強勁的營運和財務業績,實現兩位數增長,儲量、總產量和調整後 EBITDA 有所改善。我們也確保了關鍵項目的中游產能,這支撐了我們更新的 2026 年生產目標。

  • Our outstanding performance was reflected by our stock price performance, which doubled during the year. I will now present our Q4 2023 results and then move on to our full year results. During Q4, we continue to focus on drilling and completion activity in Bajada del Palo Oeste. This led to a sequential growth in total production, surpassing our consolidated production level prior to the transfer of the conventional asset in Q1 2023.

    我們的出色業績反映在我們的股價表現上,年內翻了一番。我現在將介紹我們 2023 年第四季的業績,然後介紹我們的全年業績。第四季度,我們繼續關注 Bajada del Palo Oeste 的鑽井和完井活動。這導致總產量持續成長,超過了 2023 年第一季傳統資產轉移之前的綜合產量水準。

  • Total production was 56,400 BOEs per day during the fourth quarter, 14% above sequentially and 16% above interannually on a pro forma basis. Our production was 48,500 barrels of oil per day, 17% above the previous quarter and 18 percentage above the same quarter of last year, also on a pro forma basis. Total revenues during the quarter were $309 million, 2% above the previous quarter. We continue reducing our lifting costs, reaching $4.3 per BOE during the quarter.

    第四季總產量為每天 56,400 個 BOE,比上一季高出 14%,比上一季高出 16%。我們的產量為每天 48,500 桶石油,比上一季高出 17%,比去年同期高出 18%(同樣按預計計算)。該季度總營收為 3.09 億美元,比上一季成長 2%。我們持續降低提升成本,本季達到每桶油當量 4.3 美元。

  • Capital expenditure was $212 million, mainly driven by 11 well drilled and 7 wells completing during the quarter. In Q4 2023, adjusted EBITDA was $288 million, 43% above year-over-year, supported by the stable revenues and other operating income growth, amid lower lifting costs. Adjusted net income was $240 million, implying a quarterly adjusted EPS of $2.50 per share, mainly driven by higher adjusted EBITDA and the positive impact of the reduction in the full year income tax.

    資本支出為 2.12 億美元,主要由本季鑽探的 11 口井和完井的 7 口井推動。 2023 年第四季度,在穩定的收入和其他營業收入成長以及提升成本降低的支撐下,調整後 EBITDA 為 2.88 億美元,年增 43%。調整後淨利潤為 2.4 億美元,意味著季度調整後每股收益為 2.50 美元,這主要是由於調整後 EBITDA 較高以及全年所得稅減少的正面影響。

  • We recorded positive free cash flow of $107 million during the quarter, driven by a strong EBITDA generation and normalization of working capital compared with the previous quarter. Net leverage ratio at the quarter end was a solid 0.46x adjusted EBITDA. I will now deep dive into our main operational and financial metrics of the quarter. Total production during Q4 2023 was 56,400 BOE per day, driven by the tie-in of 11 wells in Bajada del Palo Oeste during the quarter.

    與上一季相比,在強勁的 EBITDA 生成和營運資金正常化的推動下,我們在本季度錄得 1.07 億美元的正自由現金流。季度末的淨槓桿率為調整後 EBITDA 的 0.46 倍。我現在將深入探討本季的主要營運和財務指標。 2023 年第四季的總產量為每天 56,400 桶油當量,主要得益於該季度 Bajada del Palo Oeste 的 11 口井的併網。

  • This led to a sequential increase of 14%. On an annual basis, production increased 3%, reflecting that we have now surpassed the production level prior to the transfer of the conventional asset back in March 2023. On a pro forma basis, adjusting by the production of such asset, our total production growth was 16% year-over-year.

    這導致環比增長 14%。按年計算,產量增加了3%,反映出我們現在已經超過了2023年3月常規資產轉移之前的產量水準。在備考基礎上,根據該資產的產量進行調整,我們的總產量增長同比增長16 %。

  • During the quarter, we recorded an outstanding performance in oil production, which increased by, which increased by 17% on a sequential basis and 18% on an annual pro forma basis. On other hand, gas production decreased 2% quarter-over-quarter, impacting our Q4 total production target and the exit rate.

    本季度,我們的石油產量表現出色,季增 17%,年增 18%。另一方面,天然氣產量較上季下降2%,影響了我們第四季的總產量目標和退出率。

  • This was mainly due to the fact that during the quarter, we tie-in 2 pads in the Northeast of Bajada del Palo Oeste, which has a lower gas to oil ratio than other parts of our acreage. During the fourth quarter of 2023, we continue in full development mode with 100% of the drilling and completion activity in Bajada del Palo Oeste. We tie in 11 wells during the quarter impact Bajada del Palo Oeste '19, '20 and '21.

    這主要是因為本季我們在 Bajada del Palo Oeste 東北部併入了 2 個油田,該地區的氣油比低於我們油田其他地區。 2023 年第四季度,我們將繼續全面開發模式,在 Bajada del Palo Oeste 進行 100% 的鑽井和完井活動。我們在季度影響 Bajada del Palo Oeste '19、'20 和 '21 期間打了 11 口井。

  • The tie-ins boosted production in Q4 and led to an exit rate close to 60,000 BOEs per day. The tie-in of 23 new wells during the second semester of 2023 reflects full utilization of 2 drilling rigs and 1 spudder rig with a run rate of 46 new wells per year, in line with our 2024 plan, which we will discuss later on. During Q4 2023, our revenues were stable year-over-year, as oil production grow offset lower realized oil prices. Total revenues were $309 million, 2% increase compared with previous quarter and 3% decline compared to Q4 2022.

    這些搭售提高了第四季度的產量,導致每天的退出率接近 60,000 個 BOE。 2023年下半年併網23口新井,充分利用了2座鑽機和1座開挖機,每年開工46口新井,符合我們將在稍後討論的2024年計劃。 2023 年第四季度,我們的營收年增穩定,因為石油產量的成長抵消了實際油價的下降。總營收為 3.09 億美元,較上一季成長 2%,較 2022 年第四季下降 3%。

  • This was mainly driven by lower gas production as discussed previously, a 50% decline in gas prices. Sales to export market accounted for 49% of the oil volume and 53% of net oil revenues. We exported 2 million-barrel of oil, composed by 1.6 barrels through the Atlantic and 0.4 million barrels by pipeline to Chile. Realized oil price for the quarter averaged $67.8 per barrel, down 2% year-over-year and flat compared to the previous quarter.

    這主要是由於先前討論的天然氣產量下降以及天然氣價格下降 50% 所致。出口市場銷售佔石油量的49%,佔石油淨收入的53%。我們出口了200萬桶石油,其中1.6桶透過大西洋出口,40萬桶透過管道出口到智利。本季實現油價平均每桶 67.8 美元,年減 2%,與上季持平。

  • The average realized domestic price was $63.7 per barrel, while the realized export price was $74.2 per barrel. We are seeing good recovery in the domestic prices with crude in line with the $65 to $66 range for January and February, which is key to found our growth plan. Lifting cost was $22.3 million for the quarter, a 38% decrease compared to the same quarter of last year.

    國內平均實現價格為每桶 63.7 美元,而出口實現價格為每桶 74.2 美元。我們看到國內原油價格出現良好回升,與 1 月和 2 月的 65 至 66 美元區間一致,這是製定我們成長計畫的關鍵。本季吊運成本為 2,230 萬美元,比去年同期下降 38%。

  • Lifting costs per BOE was $4.30, a decrease of 40% compared to Q4 2022. These results continue to reflect the positive impact of our new operating model, fully focused on our shale oil asset, following the transfer of the conventional assets in the first quarter of the year. On a sequential basis, lifting costs per BOE was down 11%, as the ramp-up of production volumes continue to dilute fixed costs. We expect this trend to continue during 2024. The devaluation of the peso of approximately 130% led to cost savings in the second half of December.

    每桶油當量的提升成本為4.30 美元,與2022 年第四季相比下降了40%。這些結果繼續反映了我們在第一季轉讓常規資產後,完全專注於頁岩油資產的新營運模式的正面影響今年的。從季來看,每桶油當量的提升成本下降了 11%,因為產量的增加繼續稀釋了固定成本。我們預計這一趨勢將在 2024 年持續下去。比索貶值約 130%,導致 12 月下半月節省了成本。

  • We are still closely monitoring the full impact of this event on our lifting cost of Q1 2024. Adjusted EBITDA during Q4 2023 was $288 million, an increase of 43% year-over-year. Adjusted EBITDA performance was supported by production growth and lower lifting costs. It also includes $81 million in gains from repatriation of 27% of export proceed at the blue-chip swap exchange rate. This gain has been accounted for -- in other income. This benefit has been extended and currently allow us to repatriate 20% of our exports at blue-chip swap rate.

    我們仍在密切關注此事件對 2024 年第一季成本提升的全面影響。2023 年第四季調整後 EBITDA 為 2.88 億美元,年成長 43%。調整後的 EBITDA 表現受到產量成長和提升成本降低的支撐。它還包括以藍籌掉期匯率匯回 27% 的出口收益而獲得的 8,100 萬美元收益。這一收益已計入其他收入。這項優惠已擴展,目前允許我們以藍籌掉期利率匯回 20% 的出口產品。

  • We continue to see an expansion of margins. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 73% during the quarter, an interannual increase of 7 percentage points. Note that we have added the other income from the repatriation of export proceed at the blue-chip to our revenues to calculate our adjusted EBITDA margin. This provides a more accurate representation of our margins. For more detail, please see the earnings note released yesterday afternoon.

    我們繼續看到利潤率的擴大。本季調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 73%,較去年同期成長 7 個百分點。請注意,我們已將藍籌股出口收益匯回的其他收入添加到我們的收入中,以計算調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率。這可以更準確地反映我們的利潤。如欲了解更多詳情,請參閱昨天下午發布的收益報告。

  • Netback during the quarter was $55.6 per BOE, a 39% increase year-over-year. During Q4 2023, we have another positive free cash flow quarter. Cash from operating activities was $347 million, reflecting higher adjusted EBITDA generation and normalization of working capital related to sales collections. Cash flow used in investing activities was $240 million, in line with the capital expenditures of $212 million and a $17 million increase in working capital related to CapEx.

    本季淨收益為每桶油當量 55.6 美元,年增 39%。 2023 年第四季,我們又迎來了一個正自由現金流季度。經營活動產生的現金為 3.47 億美元,反映了調整後 EBITDA 產生的增加以及與銷售收款相關的營運資金的正常化。用於投資活動的現金流量為 2.4 億美元,與 2.12 億美元的資本支出以及與資本支出相關的營運資本增加 1,700 萬美元一致。

  • Free cash flow during Q4 2023 was therefore $107 million. Cash used in financing activities was $67 million, driven by the prepayment of local bonds adjusted by peso inflation as well as bond series III in currency. Net leverage ratio stood at 0.46x adjusted EBITDA at quarter end. Cash at the end of the period was $213 million. We now move on to the full year results. During 2023, we made solid progress across our 4 strategic levers. We increased P1 reserves and well inventory, reflecting the growth potential and the quality of our asset base.

    因此,2023 年第四季的自由現金流為 1.07 億美元。融資活動使用的現金為 6,700 萬美元,主要是由於按比索通貨膨脹調整的當地債券以及貨幣債券系列 III 的提前償付。季末淨槓桿率為調整後 EBITDA 的 0.46 倍。期末現金為 2.13 億美元。現在我們來看全年業績。 2023年,我們在四大戰略槓桿上取得了紮實進展。我們增加了 P1 儲量和油井庫存,反映了我們資產基礎的成長潛力和品質。

  • P1 reserves increased 27% year-over-year to 319 million BOEs. While inventory increased 28% year-over-year to 1,150 wells, of which only 99 were on production at the end of 2023. We also delivered solid operational performance maintaining our status as a leading operator in Vaca Muerta. Total production was 51,100 BOEs per day, a 5% interannual increase or 18% on a pro forma basis, adjusted by the transfer of the conventional assets in March 2023. Lifting cost was reduced 33% year-over-year to $5.1 per BOE. Our cost-saving delivery was better than planned reflecting a 7% improvement vis-a-vis our $5.5 per BOE guidance.

    P1儲量年增27%至3.19億桶油當量。雖然庫存年增 28%,達到 1,150 口井,其中到 2023 年底只有 99 口井在生產。我們還提供了穩健的營運業績,維持了我們作為 Vaca Muerta 領先營運商的地位。總產量為每天 51,100 桶油當量,年際增長 5%,預計增長 18%(根據 2023 年 3 月常規資產轉讓進行調整)。提升成本年減 33%,至每桶油桶 5.1 美元。我們的成本節約交付優於計劃,與我們每 BOE 5.5 美元的指導相比提高了 7%。

  • Additionally, we made a strong progress in sustainability. We reduced emission intensity by 13% to 15.6 kilogram of CO2 equivalent, which places our company in the best quartile compared to the comparable upstream player worldwide. I am also very proud of our safety track record. Total recordable incident rate, including employee and contractors, was below 1 every year for the last 4 years, with 0.2 for 2023.

    此外,我們在永續發展方面取得了巨大進展。我們將排放強度降低了 13%,達到 15.6 公斤二氧化碳當量,與全球同類上游企業相比,我們公司躋身最佳四分之一。我也對我們的安全記錄感到非常自豪。過去 4 年,包括員工和承包商在內的總可記錄事故率每年都低於 1 起,2023 年為 0.2 起。

  • Finally, during 2023, we continue to deliver robust total shareholder returns. Adjusted EBITDA was $871 million, up 14% compared to 2022. Our stock price increased 115% from December 31, 2022, up to date. As I mentioned previously, P1 reserves increased 27% compared to 2022 for a total of 318.5 million BOEs estimated at year-end 2023. This implies a total reserve replacement ratio of 458% and 485% for oil.

    最後,2023 年,我們將繼續實現強勁的股東總回報。調整後 EBITDA 為 8.71 億美元,比 2022 年成長 14%。自 2022 年 12 月 31 日至今,我們的股價上漲了 115%。正如我之前提到的,與 2022 年相比,P1 儲量增加了 27%,預計 2023 年底總計為 3.185 億桶油當量。這意味著石油總儲量替代率為 458% 和 485%。

  • Proved reserve life increased by 20% to 17 years. Net additions were 85.5 million BOEs driven by the activity in Bajada del Palo Oeste, where we added 40 new well locations and Bajada del Palo Este, where we added 26 locations. This resulted in a total of 297 booked well locations in our P1 reserves. The certified present value at 10% discount rate attributable to the company interest in P1 reserves is $3.3 billion using a price assumption of $66.5 per barrel for oil according to the SEC guidelines.

    探明儲量壽命增加20%至17年。淨增加量為 8550 萬桶油當量,主要由 Bajada del Palo Oeste 和 Bajada del Palo Este 的活動推動,其中我們增加了 40 個新井位,而 Bajada del Palo Este 則增加了 26 個井位。這導致我們的 P1 儲量中總共預訂了 297 個井位。根據 SEC 指導方針,使用每桶 66.5 美元的石油價格假設,公司 P1 儲備權益以 10% 折現率計算的經認證現值為 33 億美元。

  • During 2023, we also achieved significant operating milestones. We tie-in 31 new wells, 2 above our original guidance. The drilling and completion activity boosted our total production leading to an 18% increase year-over-year on a pro forma basis. Most of our drilling and completion activity in the first semester targeted the derisking of our blocks. Solid productivity result in Agila Mora and Bajada del Palo Este allowed us to expand our inventory by 250 wells.

    2023 年,我們也實現了重要的營運里程碑。我們搭配了 31 口新井,其中 2 口比我們最初的指導水準高。鑽井和完井活動提高了我們的總產量,預計將年增 18%。我們第一學期的大部分鑽探和完井活動都旨在降低區塊的風險。 Agila Mora 和 Bajada del Palo Este 的穩定生產力使我們能夠將庫存增加 250 口井。

  • During the year, we successfully secured that take away capacity to deliver on our 2026 plan. We obtained capacity in 2 key projects, 12,500 barrels of oil per day in the Vaca Muerta Norte pipeline and 31,500 barrels of oil per day in the Oldelval expansion.

    今年,我們成功確保了外送產能,以實現我們的 2026 年計畫。我們在兩個關鍵項目中獲得了產能,瓦卡穆爾塔北管道的產能為每天 12,500 桶石油,奧爾德爾瓦爾擴建項目的產能為每天 31,500 桶石油。

  • The treatment plant in our development hub was expanded to 70,000 barrels of oil per day. We are currently working on another project to increase total treatment capacity to 85,000 barrels of oil per day before year-end. In terms of export volumes, in 2023, we increased oil exports to 52% of total oil sales, up from 44% in 2022. This was boosted by higher production and the start-up of exports to Chile, which reached 4,700 barrels of oil per day in Q4 2023.

    我們開發中心的處理廠已擴大到每天處理 70,000 桶石油。我們目前正在進行另一個項目,以期在年底前將總處理能力提高到每天 85,000 桶石油。就出口量而言,我們將石油出口量從 2022 年的 44% 增加到 2023 年的 52%。這得益於產量增加以及開始向智利出口(達到 4,700 桶石油) 2023 年第四季度每天。

  • During 2023, we also made solid progress in our emissions reduction and nature-based solution projects. Our decarbonization projects included the installation of a new vapor recovery unit, optimization of glycol dehydration process and the addition of renewables to our energy matrix among other projects. Implementation of such projects led to the reduction of Scope 1 and 2 in greenhouse gas emissions by 13% year-over-year. As previously discussed, emission intensity was also reduced by 13% over the same period to 15.6 kilos of CO2 equivalent per BOE.

    2023年,我們的減排和基於自然的解決方案專案也取得了紮實進展。我們的脫碳專案包括安裝新的蒸汽回收裝置、優化乙二醇脫水製程以及在我們的能源矩陣中添加再生能源等項目。此類計畫的實施使範圍一和範圍二的溫室氣體排放量較去年同期減少了13%。如前所述,同期排放強度也降低了 13%,達到每桶油當量 15.6 公斤二氧化碳當量。

  • Regarding nature-based solutions, our subsidiary, Aike achieved significant milestones during the year. We finalized planting our flagship project in Rolón Cue with 2.5 million trees, and initiated soil preparation activities in a neighboring plot of land in Villa Zenaida. We have initiated work in our forest conservation project in (inaudible) and also made good progress in regenerative agriculture and livestock projects. In parallel, we started the process to certify the carbon credit of our projects with Verra. We have consistently delivered strong financial metrics over the last 3 years, resulting in superior total shareholder returns.

    在基於自然的解決方案方面,我們的子公司艾克在這一年中實現了重要的里程碑。我們最終完成了在 Rolón Cue 種植 250 萬棵樹的旗艦項目,並在 Villa Zenaida 的鄰近土地上啟動了整地活動。我們已於(聽不清楚)啟動了森林保護項目,並且在再生農業和畜牧業項目方面也取得了良好進展。同時,我們開始了與 Verra 合作的專案碳信用認證流程。過去三年來,我們始終如一地提供強勁的財務指標,從而實現了卓越的股東總回報。

  • Adjusted EBITDA increased by 14% year-over-year to $871 million, in line with the midpoint of our original guidance. ROACE was 39%, consistently delivering top-tier return on capital in the energy sector. Adjusted EPS per share was $5.2, an increase of 24% compared to 2022, driven by unadjusted net income of $191 million.

    調整後 EBITDA 年成長 14%,達到 8.71 億美元,與我們最初指引的中位數一致。 ROACE 為 39%,始終保持能源產業頂級資本回報率。調整後每股收益為 5.2 美元,較 2022 年增長 24%,主要得益於 1.91 億美元的未調整淨利潤。

  • We maintained healthy financial ratios with gross leverage at 0.71x adjusted EBITDA and net leverage at 0.46x. This outstanding performance across all financial metrics is reflected in the evolution of our share price, which more than doubled since year-end 2022 to this date, outperforming our peers in LatAm after in space. I will now share our 2024 guidance. As discussed during our Investor Day last September, we plan to increase the number of tie-ins to 46 by utilizing our existing drilling and completion capacity in full. The entire drilling campaign will be focused on our development hub with most wells in our flagship development in Bajada del Palo Oeste.

    我們維持健康的財務比率,調整後的 EBITDA 總槓桿率為 0.71 倍,淨槓桿率為 0.46 倍。所有財務指標的出色表現都反映在我們股價的演變中,自 2022 年底至今,股價上漲了一倍多,超越了拉丁美洲的同行(僅次於太空)。我現在將分享我們的 2024 年指導。正如去年 9 月投資者日期間討論的那樣,我們計劃充分利用現有的鑽井和完井能力,將搭配數量增加到 46 個。整個鑽探活動將集中在我們的開發中心,其中大部分井位於我們位於巴哈達德爾帕洛西斯特的旗艦開發項目中。

  • Based on this activity, CapEx is forecast to increase to $900 million in 2024. According to our model, this activity will boost our production to between 68,000 and 70,000 BOEs per day during 2024. We expect lifting costs to continue to decrease and the back end focus on efficiency and the dilution of fixed costs by additional production volumes. We are forecasting $4.5 per BOE in 2024. Adjusted EBITDA is forecast to increase to between $1 billion and $1.15 billion using a realized oil price of $65 to $70 per barrel.

    根據這項活動,資本支出預計將在2024 年增加到9 億美元。根據我們的模型,這項活動將使我們的產量在2024 年提高到每天68,000 至70,000 個BOE。我們預計提升成本將繼續下降,後端重點在於效率以及透過增加產量來稀釋固定成本。我們預計 2024 年每桶油當量為 4.5 美元。以每桶 65 至 70 美元的實際油價計算,調整後 EBITDA 預計將增至 10 億至 11.5 億美元。

  • Finally, we expect to continue reducing our greenhouse gas emissions intensity during 2024 in line with our 2026 reduction targets. I will now summarize the key takeaways of today's presentation. During 2023, we delivered robust operational and financial performance with double-digit growth, improved reserves, total production and adjusted EBITDA. The transfer of our conventional asset converted Vista into a fully focused Vaca Muerta company with lower cost and higher margins.

    最後,我們預計將在 2024 年繼續降低溫室氣體排放強度,以符合 2026 年的減排目標。現在我將總結今天演講的要點。 2023 年,我們實現了強勁的營運和財務業績,實現了兩位數的成長,儲量、總產量和調整後 EBITDA 均有所改善。我們傳統資產的轉讓將 Vista 轉變為完全專注於 Vaca Muerta 的公司,成本更低,利潤率更高。

  • Our robust performance during the year continues to prove our ability to deliver on our superior total shareholder return proposition reflected by our peer-leading share price performance. We issued an updated strategic plan, supported by our large high-quality inventory, our operating credentials, our existing drilling and completion capacity and having secured midstream capacity to deliver on our production targets.

    我們今年的強勁業績繼續證明我們有能力實現卓越的股東總回報主張,這反映在我們同業領先的股價表現上。我們發布了更新的戰略計劃,並得到我們大量的高品質庫存、我們的營運資格、我們現有的鑽井和完井能力以及確保實現我們的生產目標的中游能力的支持。

  • In this respect, we are well on track to double our production to 100,000 BOEs per day by 2026. Our 2024 guidance is the first step in this direction, with production growth of 35% and adjusted EBITDA growth of 23%. We plan to deliver on our 2024 and 2026 targets using our own cash generation.

    在這方面,我們預計在 2026 年之前將產量翻一番,達到每天 100,000 個 BOE。我們的 2024 年指引是朝這個方向邁出的第一步,產量增加 35%,調整後 EBITDA 成長 23%。我們計劃利用自己的現金產生能力實現 2024 年和 2026 年的目標。

  • Before we move to Q&A, I would like to thank our investors for their continued support and the entire team at Vista for their commitment and hard work during 2023. I look forward to an equally successful 2024 and seeing you in our next earnings call. Operator, please open the line for Q&A.

    在我們進行問答之前,我要感謝我們的投資者的持續支持,以及Vista 整個團隊在2023 年的承諾和辛勤工作。我期待2024 年同樣成功,並在我們的下一次財報電話會議上見到您。接線員,請開通問答線。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) First question is from Bruno Montanari with Morgan Stanley.

    (操作員說明)第一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Bruno Montanari。

  • Bruno Montanari - Equity Analyst

    Bruno Montanari - Equity Analyst

  • Miguel, many great achievements in the year with the reserves, the cost evolution and the financial results, which speak for themselves. So I have 2 questions, one about -- actually both about production. But the first question, there was a bit a shortfall in production versus the original targets you had.

    米格爾,這一年取得了許多偉大的成就,包括儲備、成本演變和財務業績,這些都是不言而喻的。所以我有兩個問題,一個是關於——實際上都是關於生產的。但第一個問題,與最初的目標相比,產量有些不足。

  • I understand the gas issue you mentioned, but it seems that for oil, there was also a little bit less production. So if you could add a little bit more color on why that happened and then what the company is doing to overcome that, that would be great.

    我理解你提到的天然氣問題,但石油產量似乎也減少。因此,如果你能補充為什麼會發生這種情況,以及公司正在採取哪些措施來克服這個問題,那就太好了。

  • And then if you could discuss what more can you do in 2024? You mentioned that you're fully utilizing the existing equipment. So is there any optionality to bring more equipment to Argentina? What is the likelihood of that happening? So how should we think about this 68,000 to 70,000 barrels per day or more confident on the -- on reaching 70,000, if there is upside to that number. So any color there would also be super helpful.

    那如果您能討論一下 2024 年還能做些什麼?您提到您正在充分利用現有設備。那麼是否可以選擇將更多設備帶到阿根廷呢?發生這種情況的可能性有多大?那麼,我們應該如何看待每天 68,000 至 70,000 桶,或者對達到 70,000 桶更有信心(如果這個數字有上升空間的話)。所以任何顏色都會非常有幫助。

  • Miguel Matias Galuccio - Founder, Chairman & CEO

    Miguel Matias Galuccio - Founder, Chairman & CEO

  • Bruno, thank you very much for your comment. And regards to production, yes, first of all, as we said -- I mean, we closed -- let me give you a bit of explanation. We closed Q3 2023 at almost 50,000 barrel per day. At that time, we guide on a sequential growth of 20% for Q4. We achieved really not a 20%. We achieved an oil production increase of [17%] quarter-on-quarter, but natural gas production decreased 2%.

    布魯諾,非常感謝您的評論。至於製作,是的,首先,正如我們所說的——我的意思是,我們結束了——讓我給你一些解釋。截至 2023 年第三季度,我們的產量接近每天 50,000 桶。屆時,我們預計第四季將季成長 20%。我們確實取得了不到 20% 的成績。我們實現了石油產量環比增長[17%],但天然氣產量下降了2%。

  • In oil, we've made very good effort to offset the lower production of the Q pilot that we mentioned before. The Q was a pilot, and we were testing to frac once and 8 wells at the same time. And clearly, the intensity of the fracture, even though we are evaluating, it didn't give the results that we were expecting for.

    在石油方面,我們做出了很大的努力來抵消我們之前提到的 Q 試點的較低產量。 Q 是一個試點,我們正在測試一次壓裂並同時進行 8 口井。顯然,即使我們正在評估骨折的強度,它也沒有給出我們預期的結果。

  • At the BOE level, the impact of 2% in quarter-on-quarter decrease in gas production a plain half of the quarter miss. Gas production decreased by 2 factors. One, basically the well that we connected have lower gas oil ratio in the Northeast of Bajada del Palo Oeste. And also, we have higher downtime of the legacy wells -- or the legacy conventional wells that we have in production.

    在京東方層面,天然氣產量較上季下降 2% 的影響明顯達不到季度的一半。天然氣產量減少了 2 個因素。一,基本上我們連接的井在Bajada del Palo Oeste的東北部油氣比較低。此外,我們的舊井或正在生產的舊傳統井的停機時間更長。

  • Regarding our 2024 guidance, we reiterated a target of 20,000 barrels oil per day. You should expect that Q1 2024 is at similar levels compared with Q4 2023. We plan to tie-in this quarter 11 wells. We have 3 of them already tie-in. And as we tie-in the rest towards the end of Q1, you should see the second half of -- the first half of Q2 with a robust production growth for Q2 then. From Q2 onwards, I think you should expect between 10% and 15% growth quarter-on-quarter arriving around in Q4 to an average of 80,000 barrels oil per day.

    關於 2024 年的指導,我們重申了每天 20,000 桶石油的目標。您應該預期 2024 年第一季與 2023 年第四季的水平相似。我們計劃在本季度搭配 11 口井。我們已經搭配了其中 3 個。當我們將第一季末的剩餘時間結合起來時,您應該會看到第二季的下半年和第二季的上半年,第二季的產量將強勁成長。從第二季度開始,我認為您應該預計第四季度石油產量將實現 10% 至 15% 的季度環比增長,達到平均每天 80,000 桶石油。

  • Regards the activity, our current plan is to fully utilize all our contracted rigs. We have 2 working rigs and 1 spudder. We are working on potentially speeding up the tie-in of 1 or 2 parts that are included in 2024 plan, hiring and spot drilling and completion rig and completion capacity. So I think this 1 is -- pretty much is going to happen.

    關於活動,我們目前的計劃是充分利用我們所有的合約鑽孔機。我們有 2 台工作鑽孔機和 1 台挖土機。我們正在努力加快 2024 年計畫中包含的 1 或 2 個部分的配合,包括租賃和現場鑽完井鑽機以及完井能力。所以我認為這 1 幾乎會發生。

  • In parallel, we are looking and we are having discussions with several oil service company providers to see if we can bring more equipment in terms of drilling and completion capacity to the country. So that discussion is ongoing. So you can factor in the fact that we are going to have -- contracting a spot drilling rig and some completion capacity for 1 or 2 pads. The other thing is, as we said, it's under negotiation. We will see if we get the right conditions to really bring more equipment to the country.

    同時,我們正在與幾家石油服務公司供應商進行討論,看看我們是否可以為該國帶來更多的鑽井和完井能力設備。因此,討論仍在繼續。因此,您可以考慮這樣一個事實:我們將擁有—承包一台現場鑽孔機以及 1 或 2 個平台的一定完井能力。另一件事是,正如我們所說,它正在談判中。我們將看看我們是否具備合適的條件,真正為該國帶來更多設備。

  • Bruno Montanari - Equity Analyst

    Bruno Montanari - Equity Analyst

  • Great. Super clear. And just to confirm, these potential addition of new equipment would be upside to the existing drilling plan, right?

    偉大的。超級清晰。只是為了確認一下,這些潛在增加的新設備將對現有的鑽探計劃有好處,對吧?

  • Miguel Matias Galuccio - Founder, Chairman & CEO

    Miguel Matias Galuccio - Founder, Chairman & CEO

  • That's correct, Bruno.

    沒錯,布魯諾。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • It comes from the line of Tasso Vasconcellos with UBS.

    它來自 Tasso Vasconcellos 與 UBS 的產品線。

  • Tasso Sousa Vasconcellos - Associate Analyst

    Tasso Sousa Vasconcellos - Associate Analyst

  • I have 2 questions on my side. The first one, it would be great to hear your thoughts on Middle East government so far. What is going on better or worse than initially expected? And if it changes your company's expectations for the next 1, 2, 3, 4 years at an extent. My second question, looking forward, of course, 1 of the main drivers for the case is production growth, right?

    我有兩個問題。第一個,很高興聽到您迄今為止對中東政府的想法。發生了什麼比最初預期更好或更糟的情況?如果它在某種程度上改變了您公司對未來 1、2、3、4 年的期望。我的第二個問題,展望未來,當然,這種情況的主要驅動力之一是產量成長,對嗎?

  • We already discussed it a bit on what's dependent on the company, the drilling campaigns and so on. But of course, part of this increase in production is dependent on investment in infrastructure. So it would also be great to hear your thoughts on how investment in increasing this outflow capacity throughout Argentina is going on, if they are on track? And if you see any risk potential delays on these investments? Those are my questions.

    我們已經討論過一些關於公司、鑽探活動等的因素。但當然,產量成長部分依賴基礎設施投資。因此,如果您的投資步入正軌,那麼我們很高興聽到您對增加整個阿根廷的流出能力的投資正在進行中的想法?您是否發現這些投資有任何潛在的延遲風險?這些都是我的問題。

  • Miguel Matias Galuccio - Founder, Chairman & CEO

    Miguel Matias Galuccio - Founder, Chairman & CEO

  • So thank you very much for your question, and welcome to this call. I guess it's your first time. So good to have you here. Regarding the first part of your question on how we see the government. So we have a very positive view on some of the proposing changes that the government is making such as no price intervention by the government and freedom of export.

    非常感謝您提出問題,並歡迎您撥打本次電話。我想這是你的第一次。很高興你能來到這裡。關於你問題的第一部分,也就是我們如何看待政府。因此,我們對政府正在提出的一些變革持非常積極的看法,例如政府不干預價格和出口自由。

  • I believe both things are very good to attract investment to Argentina. Argentina have a very unique opportunity in terms of bringing more proceeds to Argentina through export. And clearly, this 2 initiatives will help a lot the country in terms of bringing more investment and of course, exporting more, and Vista is an example of that.

    我相信這兩件事對於阿根廷吸引投資都是非常有利的。阿根廷在透過出口為阿根廷帶來更多收益方面擁有非常獨特的機會。顯然,這兩項舉措將為該國帶來更多投資,當然還有更多出口方面提供很大幫助,Vista 就是一個例子。

  • So we welcome this initiative. We support this initiative. I think the industry also was present at the Congress discussion through the president of a chamber that we have just in companies, the CEPH and basically, she verbalized that support with the President of Congress. So that is pretty good.

    因此,我們歡迎這項倡議。我們支持這項倡議。我認為業界也透過我們公司中的 CEPH 主席出席了國會討論,基本上,她向國會主席表達了這種支持。所以這非常好。

  • Regarding infrastructure and the progress that we have on that, I think we are basically pretty much on track with the Chile connection, and what we call Vaca Muerta Norte, that is in place. And we are exporting the volumes that we thought we will be exporting -- at the time that we thought we will be exporting.

    關於基礎設施和我們在這方面取得的進展,我認為我們與智利的連接基本上已經步入正軌,我們所說的 Vaca Muerta Norte 已經就位。我們正在出口我們認為我們將出口的數量——在我們認為我們將出口的時候。

  • The 1 that is delayed is the project of Oldelval. So we are facing delayed on the Phase I that should be finished -- is supposed to be finished the first quarter of 2024, and now is delayed to October. In Q1 2024, the full project is supposed to deliver 120,000 barrels oil per day. Now we believe it's going to be -- we will be getting 120,000, 150,000 in October. The pipeline was not an issue. We have an issue or they have an issue or speeding delay with the provision of pump, but this issue is resolved.

    延期的第一個項目是 Oldelval 的項目。因此,我們面臨著應該完成的第一階段的延遲——原定於 2024 年第一季完成,現在推遲到 10 月。 2024 年第一季度,整個計畫預計每天輸送 12 萬桶石油。現在我們相信十月我們將獲得 120,000、150,000 個。管道不是問題。我們有問題,或者他們在提供泵方面有問題或超速延遲,但這個問題已經解決。

  • So all the equipment is in hand. So in October, we're supposed to have this 150,000 coming in, in line. The delay does not impact our plan. We have no capacity in Oldelval open access today. We are actually using 44,000 barrels per day, as we speak. And also we have Vaca Muerta Norte, and we have the tracking that give us flexibility. So we don't see any issues in infrastructure for 2024.

    所以所有的裝備都在手上。所以在 10 月份,我們應該有 15 萬人排隊進來。延遲不會影響我們的計劃。我們今天沒有奧爾德爾瓦爾開放獲取的能力。正如我們所說,我們實際上每天使用 44,000 桶。我們還有 Vaca Muerta Norte,我們的追蹤功能為我們提供了靈活性。因此,我們認為 2024 年基礎設施不會有任何問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) It comes from the line of Marina Mertens with Latin Securities.

    (操作員說明)它來自 Marina Mertens 與拉丁證券的線路。

  • Marina F. Mertens - Research Analyst

    Marina F. Mertens - Research Analyst

  • I have 2 questions. First, considering all the changes going on in Argentina's politics and economy, the favorable outcomes of Bajada del Palo and the recent announcement of the increased reserves. What would be the need to accelerate the already ambitious CapEx plan. And thus, the (inaudible) play any role in this decision and the other 1 on domestic prices. We observed a rebound in the price of the local barrel in December, which continued into January. What are you anticipating for the remainder of the year?

    我有 2 個問題。首先,考慮到阿根廷政治和經濟正在發生的所有變化、巴哈達德爾帕洛的有利成果以及最近宣布的增加儲備。加速本已雄心勃勃的資本支出計畫有何必要?因此,(聽不清楚)在這項決定和其他有關國內價格的決定中發揮任何作用。我們觀察到 12 月當地桶裝價格出現反彈,並持續到 1 月。您對今年剩餘時間有何期待?

  • Miguel Matias Galuccio - Founder, Chairman & CEO

    Miguel Matias Galuccio - Founder, Chairman & CEO

  • Marina, thank you very much for your question. I will start with the second part. During basically the quarter, we were requested additional volume by local refineries. The price that we reflect by the earnings reflect basically a mix between domestic sales, part of which we've been providing, as you said, the local price. And the additional volumes that were paid are export parity. Of course, we see as a positive trend that domestic market is willing to validate the export parity.

    瑪麗娜,非常感謝你的問題。我將從第二部分開始。基本上在本季度,當地煉油廠要求我們增加產量。我們透過收益反映的價格基本上反映了國內銷售之間的混合,正如你所說,其中一部分是當地價格。支付的額外數量是出口平價。當然,我們認為國內市場願意驗證出口平價是一個正面的趨勢。

  • And we welcome everything that is moving in that direction. Regarding to additional CapEx, I mean, our plan for 2024, I will say, this is ambitious. The growth that we are aiming for is probably 1 of the highest in the last 5 years is 35%. So therefore, I will say, there's probably a little room to aim a bit higher.

    我們歡迎一切朝這個方向發展的事。關於額外的資本支出,我想說的是,我們 2024 年的計畫是雄心勃勃的。我們的目標成長可能是過去 5 年中最高的成長之一,即 35%。因此,我想說,可能還有一點空間可以把目標定得更高一些。

  • Now if you ask me 1 thing that going forward, we help to continue those level of growth or even to aim higher will be free access to be able to repatriate dividends or proceeds. Anything in terms of freeing the controls that we have today in Argentina, clearly, we resonate with investors with us and with the additional growth.

    現在,如果你問我一件事,那就是我們將幫助繼續保持這種成長水平,甚至設定更高的目標,以便能夠自由地匯回股息或收益。顯然,在放鬆我們今天在阿根廷所擁有的控制方面,我們與投資者以及我們的額外成長產生了共鳴。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • It comes from the line of Daniel Guardiola with BTG Pactual.

    它來自丹尼爾·瓜迪奧拉 (Daniel Guardiola) 和 BTG Pactual 的血統。

  • Daniel Guardiola - Director of Equity Research & Analyst

    Daniel Guardiola - Director of Equity Research & Analyst

  • I have a couple of questions from my end. The first 1 is on the capital structure of the company. I mean clearly, right now, you're running a very under levered balance sheet, which makes sense considering that most of your operations are in Argentina. But bear in mind that the macroeconomic environment may improve towards the second half of the year, you're having a better visibility in terms of pricing dynamics. Would you consider this structure or this low leverage to be suboptimal?

    我最後有幾個問題。第一個是關於公司的資本結構。我的意思顯然是,現在您的資產負債表槓桿率非常低,考慮到您的大部分業務都在阿根廷,這是有道理的。但請記住,宏觀經濟環境可能會在下半年有所改善,您對定價動態會有更好的了解。您是否認為這種結構或這種低槓桿率不是最優的?

  • And can you share with us what will be for you guys an optimal capital structure? So that would be my first question. And my second question is regarding growth. I mean I understand your 2024 plan is already a very ambitious one. By looking beyond 2024, what I'm seeing is -- in Vaca Muerta is a very concentrated basin with a few players with not a lot of opportunities, especially in organic opportunities. And I wanted to know if you were taking a look at the current process that Exxon is running to basically sell their Vaca Muerta assets. That would be my 2 questions.

    您能否與我們分享一下對你們來說最佳的資本結構是什麼?這是我的第一個問題。我的第二個問題是關於成長的。我的意思是,我知道您的 2024 年計劃已經是一個非常雄心勃勃的計劃。展望 2024 年後,我看到的是——瓦卡穆爾塔是一個非常集中的盆地,只有少數玩家,沒有太多機會,尤其是有機機會。我想知道您是否正在查看埃克森美孚目前正在運行的基本上出售瓦卡穆爾塔資產的流程。這是我的兩個問題。

  • Miguel Matias Galuccio - Founder, Chairman & CEO

    Miguel Matias Galuccio - Founder, Chairman & CEO

  • Daniel, Sorry, I was mute. First of all, also welcome you to this call, and thank you very much for your question. As you mentioned, I mean, we feel very comfortable at the current stage with the way that we run the company leverage wise. And also, you correctly mentioned the room for us to have a bit more leverage. But for that, we have to have a reason.

    丹尼爾,對不起,我沉默了。首先也歡迎您打來這通電話,非常感謝您的提問。正如您所提到的,我的意思是,我們對現階段明智地經營公司槓桿的方式感到非常滿意。而且,您正確地提到了我們有更多影響力的空間。但為此,我們必須有一個理由。

  • As you also mentioned, I mean, our growth program is super ambition. And we have the luxury to grow using our own cash flow generation. And I think that has been somehow recognized by the market and is part of the -- part of what you see in the evolution of the stock price of Vista, I believe, is related to the way that we run the company. That doesn't mean, as you said, this is a change -- there's an important change in context that we can basically aim for further growth and have a different leverage ratio going forward.

    正如您也提到的,我的意思是,我們的成長計劃是非常雄心勃勃的。我們可以利用自己的現金流來成長。我認為這已經在某種程度上得到了市場的認可,並且是你在 Vista 股價演變中看到的一部分,我相信這與我們經營公司的方式有關。正如你所說,這並不意味著這是一個變化——環境發生了一個重要的變化,我們基本上可以以進一步成長為目標,並在未來擁有不同的槓桿率。

  • One of the things that could, for example, change the dynamics is that we have an acquisition. And of course, we are always active on that front. We are very, very -- I mean, very active in terms of looking for new opportunities. In the particular case that you mentioned, yes, I mean they have interest assets. And yes, we are looking into that, probably nothing more that I can comment at this stage. Just the fact that, yes, we look every single opportunity that arose in Vaca Muerta that is our turf.

    例如,可能改變動態的事情之一是我們進行了收購。當然,我們在這方面始終積極主動。我們非常非常積極地尋找新機會。在你提到的特定情況下,是的,我的意思是他們有利息資產。是的,我們正在調查這一點,現階段我可能無法發表更多評論。事實上,是的,我們會尋找瓦卡穆爾塔出現的每一個機會,那是我們的地盤。

  • Daniel Guardiola - Director of Equity Research & Analyst

    Daniel Guardiola - Director of Equity Research & Analyst

  • Can I squeeze in an additional question?

    我可以再補充一個問題嗎?

  • Miguel Matias Galuccio - Founder, Chairman & CEO

    Miguel Matias Galuccio - Founder, Chairman & CEO

  • Yes, Daniel, go ahead.

    是的,丹尼爾,繼續吧。

  • Daniel Guardiola - Director of Equity Research & Analyst

    Daniel Guardiola - Director of Equity Research & Analyst

  • Regarding your cost structure, I mean, you have done a terrific job. You're not streamlining your cost structure, not bringing down your lifting cost from, I don't know, 13 or 12.5, 5 years ago to very low levels right now, close to 4.3, 4.4. Do you foresee additional room to streamline your overall cost structure, not only lifting but maybe also the SG&A.

    關於你們的成本結構,我的意思是,你們做得非常好。你沒有精簡你的成本結構,沒有把你的提升成本從 5 年前的 13 或 12.5 降低到現在的非常低的水平,接近 4.3、4.4。您是否預計還有更多空間來簡化您的整體成本結構,不僅會提高,而且可能還會提高 SG&A。

  • Miguel Matias Galuccio - Founder, Chairman & CEO

    Miguel Matias Galuccio - Founder, Chairman & CEO

  • Yes. Yes. Look, Daniel, we come from a long way of reducing, particularly the lifting cost. And I believe we have little room less as the result of the growing production. Most of the lifting costs -- probably 70% of the lifting cost structure is fee cost. So as we grow production, we will be diluting part of that cost, 70% of those. So I think we have a little room going forward. But I will say also that we are achieving the technical limit on things that we can do.

    是的。是的。丹尼爾,你看,我們在降低成本,尤其是提升成本方面還有很長的路要走。我相信,由於產量的成長,我們的空間幾乎沒有減少。大部分提升成本-可能 70% 的提升成本結構是費用成本。因此,隨著產量的成長,我們將稀釋部分成本,即 70%。所以我認為我們還有一點前進的空間。但我還要說,我們正在達到我們能做的事情的技術極限。

  • So the reduction that we see in lifting cost is going to be more (inaudible) number and not big reduction as we experienced at the beginning.

    因此,我們看到的起重成本的減少將是更多(聽不清楚)的數字,而不是像我們一開始經歷的那樣大幅減少。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Our next question is from Paula Greca with TPCG.

    (操作員說明)我們的下一個問題來自 TPCG 的 Paula Greca。

  • Paula Greca - Senior Corporate Research Analyst

    Paula Greca - Senior Corporate Research Analyst

  • I would like to know what the reason why crude oil exports declining in 4Q '23 in terms of volumes sold? Was it because of an increase in real demand from local refineries, so you are limited to export?

    我想知道23年第四季原油出口量銷售下降的原因是什麼?是因為當地煉油廠的實際需求增加,所以限制了出口?

  • Miguel Matias Galuccio - Founder, Chairman & CEO

    Miguel Matias Galuccio - Founder, Chairman & CEO

  • Paula, look, I think there was 2 reasons why that happened. One is a matter of stock at the end of the year in the terminal that basically we experience almost every year. And the second part is related to the fact that, yes, we have more demand on the local market -- a bit of more demand in the local market that as explained before, we sold our export parity. So this is pretty much the reason.

    保拉,聽著,我認為發生這種情況有兩個原因。一是年底碼頭庫存問題,基本上我們每年都會遇到。第二部分與這樣一個事實有關:是的,我們對當地市場有更多的需求——當地市場的需求比之前解釋的要多一些,我們出售了我們的出口平價。所以這幾乎就是原因。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Comes from the line of Andrés Felipe Cardona with Citi.

    來自安德烈斯·費利佩·卡多納 (Andrés Felipe Cardona) 與花旗 (Citi) 的家族。

  • Andres Felipe Cardona Gómez - Research Analyst

    Andres Felipe Cardona Gómez - Research Analyst

  • Solid results. And I have 2 very quick questions and perhaps 1 more detailed. So the first is what is the implied realization price for the local sales or the domestic sales? The second 1 is what is the assumption in terms of export taxes and if the export tax remain -- sorry what is the assumption of volumes exported and if the export tax remained at 8% at the end? And the more detailed question is why to consider M&A and not accelerate on the existing portfolio? I mean, you have close to 1,150 drilling locations, why to pursue M&A at this stage?

    紮實的​​成果。我有兩個非常簡短的問題,也許還有一個更詳細的問題。那麼第一個問題就是本地銷售或國內銷售的隱含變現價格是多少?第二個 1 是出口稅方面的假設是什麼,如果出口稅保持不變 - 抱歉,出口量的假設是什麼,如果出口稅最終保持在 8%?更詳細的問題是為什麼要考慮併購而不是加速現有投資組合?我的意思是,你們有近1,150個鑽井地點,為什麼要在這個階段進行併購?

  • Miguel Matias Galuccio - Founder, Chairman & CEO

    Miguel Matias Galuccio - Founder, Chairman & CEO

  • Andres, this is Miguel. So the line was not so good, but I think I managed to listen so the Q1 local prices that we are seeing so far is 66. So it's quite good. Export tax today is 8%, and I think there was a third question related to...

    安德烈斯,這是米格爾。所以線路不太好,但我想我設法聽了,所以到目前為止我們看到的第一季當地價格是 66。所以這是相當不錯的。今天的出口稅是 8%,我認為還有第三個問題…

  • Andres Felipe Cardona Gómez - Research Analyst

    Andres Felipe Cardona Gómez - Research Analyst

  • Miguel, the question on the local crude sale prices, what is incorporated in the guidance? And the last question was why to consider M&A at this point and not accelerating the existing portfolio you have over 1,100 drilling locations, right?

    Miguel,關於當地原油銷售價格的問題,指導中包含了什麼內容?最後一個問題是,為什麼此時要考慮併購而不是加速現有的投資組合(您擁有超過 1,100 個鑽井地點),對吧?

  • Miguel Matias Galuccio - Founder, Chairman & CEO

    Miguel Matias Galuccio - Founder, Chairman & CEO

  • Yes. Sorry, Andres, the line is not so good. But again, I mean, in terms of pricing, what we run in our plan was between 65 and 70 total. This is realized price. Today, we will look at, as a local price, what the refinery is paying for us, 66. This is Q1, okay? Now our guidance was a plan between $1 billion EBITDA and $1,150 EBITDA looking at the range -- price range of realized price in 65 to 70, realized pricing, local price Q1, 66 today.

    是的。抱歉,安德烈斯,線不太好。但我的意思是,就定價而言,我們計劃中運行的總數量在 65 到 70 之間。這是實現價格。今天,我們將看看煉油廠為我們支付的當地價格是多少,66。這是 Q1,好嗎?現在我們的指引是 10 億美元 EBITDA 到 1,150 美元 EBITDA 之間的計劃,考慮的範圍是已實現價格的價格範圍在 65 至 70,已實現定價,第一季度當地價格,今天為 66。

  • In terms of M&A, I don't think you will see anything that will impact our planning during 2024, okay? And as I mentioned before, we are basically active M&A-wise, as have we been in the past, evaluating opportunities that are today in place that mainly is 1 that was the question, I don't remember from who before.

    在併購方面,我認為您不會看到任何會影響我們 2024 年規劃的事情,好嗎?正如我之前提到的,我們基本上是積極的併購明智的,就像我們過去一樣,評估今天存在的機會,主要是 1 這是問題,我不記得之前是誰提出的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) One moment for our last question, please. It comes from the line of Alejandro Demichelis with Jefferies.

    (操作員說明)請稍等一下我們的最後一個問題。它來自亞歷杭德羅·德米凱利斯 (Alejandro Demichelis) 和傑弗里斯 (Jefferies) 的血統。

  • Alejandro Anibal Demichelis - MD

    Alejandro Anibal Demichelis - MD

  • Just 1 quick question, Miguel. You are talking about accelerating production, if you can or M&A and so on. Can you talk about how you see potentially to bring in partners into your acreage. If that's something that in the current situation of Argentina, improving conditions in Argentina that you could see feasible?

    只是一個簡單的問題,米格爾。你正在談論加速生產(如果可以的話)或併購等。您能談談您如何看待將合作夥伴引入您的領域的潛力嗎?在阿根廷目前的情況下,您認為改善阿根廷的條件是否可行?

  • Miguel Matias Galuccio - Founder, Chairman & CEO

    Miguel Matias Galuccio - Founder, Chairman & CEO

  • Alejandro, yes, thank you for your question. I mean, yes -- I mean when we talk about M&A, we consider everything. As you know, I mean, we have today, our activities concentrating in what we call the development hub. And the development hub is our Bajada del Palo Oeste. And Bajada del Palo Oeste now became part of the development hub. So everything that we have in the North, particularly Aguila Mora is a place that in the future, yes, we could consider to bring a partner to add capital. We are very well -- I mean we are recognized and we are very well positioned, as low cost, low carbon and reputable operator. So yes, when we look at M&A, this is something that we could consider in the future.

    亞歷杭德羅,是的,謝謝你的問題。我的意思是,是的——我的意思是,當我們談論併購時,我們會考慮一切。如您所知,我的意思是,我們今天的活動集中在我們所謂的開發中心。開發中心是我們的 Bajada del Palo Oeste。 Bajada del Palo Oeste 現在成為開發中心的一部分。因此,我們在北方擁有的一切,特別是阿吉拉莫拉,是的,我們將來可以考慮引入合作夥伴來增加資本。我們非常好——我的意思是我們作為低成本、低碳和信譽良好的運營商得到了認可,並且處於非常有利的位置。所以,是的,當我們考慮併購時,這是我們未來可以考慮的事情。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And with that, we conclude the Q&A session. I will turn the call back to Miguel Galuccio for final comments.

    至此,我們結束了問答環節。我會將電話轉回給米格爾·加盧喬(Miguel Galuccio)以徵求最終意見。

  • Miguel Matias Galuccio - Founder, Chairman & CEO

    Miguel Matias Galuccio - Founder, Chairman & CEO

  • Well, guys, thank you very much for participating for your question, for the support and looking forward to see you next quarter.

    好吧,夥計們,非常感謝您參與提問、支持並期待下個季度見到您。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. You may now disconnect.

    謝謝你們,女士們、先生們。您現在可以斷開連線。