The North Face 是 VF Corporation 旗下的一家服裝公司。公司將繼續投資於市場營銷和產品開發。 Explorer Pass 會員在第三季度有所增加,公司的“不僅僅是夾克”營銷活動推動了外套的強勁增長。該公司最近與美國藝術家和設計師汽車以性能為主導的合作實驗室啟動取得了成功。該公司在供應鏈領域面臨一些挑戰,但正在採取積極行動來解決這些問題。
9 月,該公司製定了一項增長戰略,他們認為這是實現目標的堅實基礎。他們將比過去更加關註消費者,並為其包裝業務尋求戰略選擇。包裝業務做得很好,但他們想確保自己是價值最高的所有者。為了增加利潤和利潤,他們將把重點放在節約成本上。他們還將股息削減了約 40%。他們了解穩定股息的價值,但他們認為這是最好的行動方案。
該公司計劃通過股息向股東返還現金,並在下一財年實現盈利和持續增長。它將加強消費者增長戰略,投資於具有財務吸引力的新類別和國家,並恢復強有力的運營紀律。股息仍然是公司全面的股東價值創造計劃的重要組成部分。 Vans 是一家設計和銷售鞋子的美國公司。該公司總部位於美國,但業務遍及全球。由於銷售額下降,該公司現在面臨一些困難。該公司希望降低成本、推動增長並提高盈利能力。公司計劃這樣做的一種方式是出售非核心資產。該公司還預計毛利率和營業利潤率將下降。儘管如此,該公司仍預計運營現金流為 7 億美元。
第三季度,威富公司的收入增長了 3%。然而,調整後的毛利率下降了 140 個基點,調整後的營業利潤率下降了 280 個基點。這導致調整後的每股收益為 1.12 美元,按固定匯率計算下降了 17% 或 10%。
美洲地區在本季度下降了 1%。由於其最大的批發合作夥伴採取的庫存行動的持續影響以及整個價值和工作消費市場的疲軟表現,北美尤其具有挑戰性。
相比之下,歐洲、中東和非洲地區繼續保持增長勢頭,收入增長了 10%。這標誌著連續第七個季度實現兩位數增長,而且基礎廣泛,11 個品牌中有 10 個在增長。
展望下一財年,公司計劃加強執行力,以加強經營業績並提供更有利可圖和穩定的財務業績。預計收入將至少以低個位數增長。調整後的毛利率預計持平至略有下降。調整後的營業利潤率預計將略有下降。調整後的每股收益預計在 2.80 美元至 2.90 美元之間。
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Operator
Operator
Greetings, and welcome to the VF Corporation Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note that this conference is being recorded.
大家好,歡迎來到 VF Corporation 2023 年第三季度財報電話會議。 (操作員說明)請注意,正在錄製此會議。
I will now turn the conference over to our host, Allegra Perry, Vice President, Investor Relations. Thank you. You may begin.
我現在將會議轉交給我們的主持人,投資者關係副總裁 Allegra Perry。謝謝。你可以開始了。
Allegra Perry - VP of IR
Allegra Perry - VP of IR
Good afternoon, and welcome to VF Corporation's Third Quarter Fiscal 2023 Conference Call. Participants on today's call will make forward-looking statements. These statements are based on current expectations and are subject to uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. These uncertainties are detailed in documents filed regularly with the SEC. Unless otherwise noted, amounts referred to on today's call will be on an adjusted constant dollar basis, which we've defined in the press release that was issued this afternoon and which we use as lead numbers in our discussion because we believe they more accurately represent the true operational performance and underlying results of our business.
下午好,歡迎來到威富公司 2023 財年第三季度電話會議。今天電話會議的參與者將發表前瞻性陳述。這些陳述基於當前的預期,並受到可能導致實際結果存在重大差異的不確定性的影響。這些不確定性在定期向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中有詳細說明。除非另有說明,否則今天電話會議中提到的金額將以調整後的不變美元為基礎,我們在今天下午發布的新聞稿中對此進行了定義,我們在討論中將其用作領先數字,因為我們相信它們更準確地代表我們業務的真實運營績效和基本結果。
You may also hear us refer to reported amounts, which are in accordance with U.S. GAAP. Reconciliations of GAAP measures to adjusted amounts can be found in the supplemental financial tables included in the press release, which identify and quantify all excluded items and provide management's view of why this information is useful to investors. Unless otherwise noted, results presented on today's call are based on continuing operations.
您可能還會聽到我們提到報告的金額,這些金額符合美國公認會計原則。 GAAP 措施與調整後金額的對賬可以在新聞稿中的補充財務表中找到,這些表格確定並量化了所有排除的項目,並提供了管理層對為什麼這些信息對投資者有用的看法。除非另有說明,否則今天電話會議上公佈的結果基於持續運營。
Joining me on the call will be VF's Interim President and Chief Executive Officer, Benno Dorer; and EVP and Chief Financial Officer, Matt Puckett. Following our prepared remarks, we'll open the call for questions. I'll now hand over to Benno.
與我一起參加電話會議的還有 VF 的臨時總裁兼首席執行官 Benno Dorer;執行副總裁兼首席財務官 Matt Puckett。在我們準備好的評論之後,我們將開始提問。我現在將交給 Benno。
Benno O. Dorer - Interim President, CEO & Director
Benno O. Dorer - Interim President, CEO & Director
Hello, everyone. Since I stepped into my new interim role about 2 months ago, I have been fully immersed in the business. I have uncovered areas of strength and promise but also gained a deeper understanding of where we must improve. And I have been impressed with our talent at all levels and their leadership and commitment to VF on which our future success is dependent.
大家好。自從我大約 2 個月前擔任新的臨時角色以來,我就完全沉浸在業務中。我發現了優勢和希望的領域,但也更深入地了解了我們必須改進的地方。我對我們各個級別的人才以及他們的領導能力和對 VF 的承諾印象深刻,這是我們未來成功所依賴的。
Many of you know about my career history, which culminated in roles as CEO and Chair of the Clorox Company until my retirement from a full-time corporate career 2 years ago. This gave me the opportunity to lead a global purpose-driven consumer portfolio company towards more profitable, sustained and responsible growth with financial discipline, a fully engaged organization, brands people love, consistently strong product innovation and a differentiated approach to the portfolio to maximize value. You also know that I have served on the Board of VF for the last 6 years, including as leading independent director from July 2021 until December 2022. I believe that my deep insight into VF, my passion for the company, its people and brands, coupled with my prior career experience gives me a solid foundation for the interim CEO role. And I do plan to use my time to make a positive difference to VF's business and organization.
你們中的許多人都知道我的職業經歷,在我 2 年前從全職公司職業生涯退休之前,我曾擔任 Clorox 公司的首席執行官和董事長。這讓我有機會帶領一家以目標為導向的全球消費者投資組合公司通過財務紀律、充分參與的組織、人們喜愛的品牌、持續強大的產品創新和差異化的投資組合方法實現價值最大化,實現更盈利、持續和負責任的增長.您還知道,我在過去 6 年一直在 VF 董事會任職,包括從 2021 年 7 月到 2022 年 12 月擔任首席獨立董事。我相信我對 VF 的深刻洞察力、我對公司、員工和品牌的熱情,再加上我之前的職業經歷,為我擔任臨時首席執行官一職奠定了堅實的基礎。我確實計劃利用我的時間對 VF 的業務和組織產生積極影響。
My overall theme for today is that VF will sharpen its near-term focus on the biggest consumer opportunities within our existing brand portfolio and on enhanced operational performance. Consistent with this objective, we are shifting resource priorities across the company. This will include rightsizing our dividends, exploring the sale of noncore assets and cutting costs in lower-value areas to strengthen our execution and to enable incremental targeted investments in our brands and the consumer.
我今天的總體主題是 VF 將加強其近期關注我們現有品牌組合中最大的消費者機會和提高運營績效。為實現這一目標,我們正在整個公司內調整資源優先級。這將包括調整我們的股息、探索出售非核心資產和削減低價值領域的成本,以加強我們的執行力,並實現對我們品牌和消費者的增量有針對性的投資。
With that, I'm pleased to speak with you today about 4 topics: VF's results in Q3, our near-term priorities to address performance, how we're taking prudent steps to build a stronger company for the future and why I'm even more optimistic than I was 2 months ago about the long-term prospects for VF.
鑑於此,我很高興今天與您討論 4 個主題:VF 在第三季度的業績、我們解決績效的近期優先事項、我們如何採取謹慎措施為未來打造更強大的公司以及我為什麼甚至比我 2 個月前對 VF 的長期前景更加樂觀。
First, we overcame a very challenging environment in Q3, where our performance highlighted examples of success while also clearly showcasing areas to improve. Amidst the difficult geopolitical and economic backdrop, we grew Q3 revenue 3% in constant dollars. And today, we are reaffirming our revenue outlook at the low end of our prior range. And also the midpoint of our EPS outlook for fiscal year '23.
首先,我們在第三季度克服了一個非常具有挑戰性的環境,我們的表現突出了成功的例子,同時也清楚地展示了需要改進的地方。在艱難的地緣政治和經濟背景下,我們第三季度的收入按不變美元計算增長了 3%。今天,我們重申我們的收入前景處於先前範圍的低端。以及我們 23 財年每股收益展望的中點。
Our EMEA business continues to be a bright spot, with Q3 revenue up 10%, our seventh consecutive quarter of double-digit growth driven by broad-based strength, including the North Face of 13% and Vans up 7%. Another strength in Q3 has been our consistent performance of the outdoor brands, led, of course, by the North Face, where revenue was also up 13% globally with growth achieved in each region and channel. We also saw nice growth in Timberland up 6% in the quarter, with solid performance in EMEA and in wholesale globally. And our outdoor emerging brands continue to grow strongly, up 10% highlighted by Ultra.
我們的 EMEA 業務仍然是一個亮點,第三季度收入增長 10%,我們連續第七個季度實現兩位數增長,這得益於廣泛的實力,包括 13% 的 North Face 和增長 7% 的 Vans。第三季度的另一個優勢是我們戶外品牌的一貫表現,當然,由 North Face 領銜,其全球收入也增長了 13%,每個地區和渠道都實現了增長。我們還看到 Timberland 在本季度增長了 6%,在 EMEA 和全球批發方面表現穩健。我們的戶外新興品牌繼續強勁增長,Ultra 突出了 10% 的增長。
Finally, in Asia, we saw a sequential improvement with Q3 revenue up 4%. This was driven by the beginning of what could be a return to stronger momentum in Greater China, which was close to flat at minus 1.
最後,在亞洲,我們看到了連續改善,第三季度收入增長了 4%。這是由大中華區開始恢復強勁勢頭推動的,大中華區接近持平於負 1。
Secondly, we are clear-eyed about VF's performance barriers, which are predominantly operational in nature. And our near-term priority is to put aggressive plans in place to improve our execution. We are not reaching our full potential as a company. The good news, though, is that doing so is largely within our control. We must consistently delight consumers with exciting products, engaging content delivered with effective marketing tools and with great shopping experiences in-store and online.
其次,我們對威富的業績壁壘一清二楚,主要是運營方面的壁壘。我們近期的首要任務是製定積極的計劃來提高我們的執行力。我們沒有充分發揮公司的潛力。不過,好消息是,這樣做很大程度上在我們的控制範圍內。我們必須始終如一地用令人興奮的產品取悅消費者,通過有效的營銷工具提供引人入勝的內容,並在店內和網上提供出色的購物體驗。
Where we do this well, see the North Face and the broader portfolio in EMEA, our brands continue to thrive. Where we are inconsistent with Vans being far the highest impact, but not the only example, we must improve our consumer execution to return to full strength. We must also return to delivering products to our consumers and customers on time and at lower cost to VF. Supply chain has long been a core competitive advantage of VF but our recent performance also requires focus.
在我們做得好的地方,看看 North Face 和 EMEA 更廣泛的產品組合,我們的品牌繼續蓬勃發展。我們與 Vans 不一致的地方是影響最大的,但不是唯一的例子,我們必須提高我們的消費者執行力以恢復全力。我們還必須重新按時向我們的消費者和客戶交付產品,並以更低的成本向 VF 提供產品。供應鍊長期以來一直是 VF 的核心競爭優勢,但我們最近的表現也需要重點關注。
So to improve execution, we have 2 near-term key priorities, which represent significant value creation opportunities. First, turning around our Vans performance through improved consumer execution; and second, returning to supply chain excellence across the company. On Vans, we clearly have been challenged for some time now. This is predominantly a challenge in the Americas, and it is mostly executional in nature. For perspective, Vans Q3 revenue rose by 7% in EMEA, but declined by 13% in the Americas, which is primarily North America and accounted for 90% of the global Vans Q3 revenue decline.
因此,為了提高執行力,我們有 2 個近期的關鍵優先事項,它們代表著重要的價值創造機會。首先,通過提高消費者執行力來扭轉我們 Vans 的業績;其次,恢復整個公司的卓越供應鏈。在 Vans 上,我們顯然已經受到挑戰一段時間了。這在美洲主要是一個挑戰,而且主要是執行性質的。從角度來看,Vans Q3 在 EMEA 的收入增長了 7%,但在美洲下降了 13%,美洲主要是北美,佔全球 Vans Q3 收入下降的 90%。
While there are differences in EMEA compared to the North American market, the relatively stronger performance of Vans in EMEA also reflects the benefits of a clear growth strategy and stronger marketplace execution. We must do better with Vans in its home market, and we will. Our action plan follows the 4 growth drivers laid out in our Investor Day last September. Consumer, products, marketplace and operating model.
雖然 EMEA 與北美市場相比存在差異,但 Vans 在 EMEA 相對強勁的表現也反映了明確的增長戰略和更強的市場執行力的好處。我們必須在 Vans 的本土市場做得更好,我們會的。我們的行動計劃遵循去年 9 月投資者日提出的 4 個增長動力。消費者、產品、市場和運營模式。
Here are a few specific examples of actions. We will sharpen our view of the changing consumer landscape through a new consumer segmentation, which is underway and will inform the business' overall growth strategy and begin to influence our direct-to-consumer plans as of summer this year. We need to delight consumers in ways that are relevant to their specific needs. And to do so, we must be more intimately familiar with them. We will also better turn data and insights into significant consumer opportunities available today.
下面舉幾個具體的動作例子。我們將通過正在進行的新消費者細分來加強我們對不斷變化的消費者格局的看法,該細分將為企業的整體增長戰略提供信息,並從今年夏天開始影響我們直接面向消費者的計劃。我們需要以與消費者特定需求相關的方式取悅消費者。為此,我們必須更加熟悉它們。我們還將更好地將數據和洞察力轉化為當今可用的重要消費者機會。
For example, a strong untapped opportunity exists with our UltraRange product line. Here, awareness is very low at around 10% among all consumers and at below 30% even among Vans loyalists. So we've started to boost awareness, and this is starting to yield results. UltraRange revenue grew 34% in Q3 with much more growth to be had. The MTE and half cap product lines have similar potential. And going forward, we will drive these and other promising platforms longer and more continuously.
例如,我們的 UltraRange 產品線存在巨大的未開發機會。在這裡,所有消費者的認知度非常低,約為 10%,甚至在 Vans 忠誠者中也低於 30%。所以我們已經開始提高意識,並且開始產生效果。 UltraRange 收入在第三季度增長了 34%,而且還有更多增長空間。 MTE 和半帽產品線具有相似的潛力。展望未來,我們將推動這些和其他有前途的平台更長久、更持續地發展。
We will significantly increase our investment in product innovation. Funded by a reduction in costs in lower value areas with actions, including SG&A reduction and improving store profitability. Vans product development investment as a percentage of revenue lags well behind the company average. We will change that starting with fiscal year '24.
我們將大幅增加對產品創新的投入。通過減少低價值區域的成本以及減少 SG&A 和提高商店盈利能力等行動提供資金。 Vans 產品開發投資佔收入的百分比遠遠落後於公司平均水平。我們將從 24 財年開始改變這種狀況。
This will help us aggressively pursue new styles and make our innovation pipeline more consistently strong. We will also eliminate unnecessary SKU complexity to simplify and importantly, amplify the shopping experience. A small test at our Irvine, California store led to a footwear revenue improvement of plus 12 percentage points with 30% fewer SKUs. We will begin to expand this initiative as of fall fiscal year '24. We will move our digital spending principle from budget cap based to flexible and ROI-based to take advantage of available spending opportunities that translate into incremental revenue and profits. It is early days, but we have already seen an improvement in profitable DTC growth rates only a few weeks into this change. We will sharpen our processes.
這將幫助我們積極追求新風格,並使我們的創新管道更加強大。我們還將消除不必要的 SKU 複雜性,以簡化並重要的是,擴大購物體驗。在我們位於加利福尼亞州爾灣的商店進行的一項小型測試使鞋類收入提高了 12 個百分點,SKU 減少了 30%。從 24 財年秋季開始,我們將開始擴大這一舉措。我們將把我們的數字支出原則從基於預算上限轉變為靈活和基於投資回報率,以利用可轉化為增量收入和利潤的可用支出機會。現在還為時過早,但我們已經看到 DTC 盈利增長率在這一變化僅幾週後就有所改善。我們將改進我們的流程。
In fiscal year '24, we will go to market at retail, including wholesale customers with clearly aligned and integrated product calendars. This will lead to better plans that are more centered around the consumer. And to drive Vans forward, we have made tremendous progress putting a world-class Vans leadership team in place. Two critical leaders, our new Chief Product and Merchandising Officer; and our new Chief Digital Officer, have both joined in December, and they're off to a fast start. Vans continues to be a fundamentally strong brand. The number of consumers buying Vans during the last 12 months was up, as was brand advocacy. But many people buy the brand less often. So what we do need to do is to fuel the brand more consistently and give people more reasons to buy more Vans. That is on us, and that's what we will do.
在 24 財年,我們將進入零售市場,包括具有明確對齊和集成產品日曆的批發客戶。這將導致更好的計劃,更以消費者為中心。為了推動 Vans 向前發展,我們已經取得了巨大的進步,組建了世界一流的 Vans 領導團隊。兩位關鍵領導者,我們的新任首席產品和營銷官;和我們的新任首席數字官都已於 12 月加入,他們的開局很快。 Vans 仍然是一個基本面強大的品牌。在過去的 12 個月裡,購買 Vans 的消費者數量有所增加,品牌宣傳也是如此。但很多人購買該品牌的頻率較低。因此,我們確實需要做的是更一致地為品牌加油,讓人們有更多理由購買更多 Vans。那是我們的責任,這就是我們將要做的。
The momentum we continue to generate with the North Face further proves this point. The brand continues to perform strongly, driven by strong consumer engagement and iconic products. And we will keep investing to fuel that momentum. Our Explorer Pass membership continued to grow significantly in Q3, up 2.1 million members to approximately 17 million in total. It's More Than a Jacket marketing campaign, launched the season and drove strong outerwear growth globally with the Nuptse jackets, and the recently relaunched Summit Series premium product line leading the business.
我們繼續在 North Face 上產生的勢頭進一步證明了這一點。在強大的消費者參與度和標誌性產品的推動下,該品牌繼續表現強勁。我們將繼續投資以推動這一勢頭。我們的 Explorer Pass 會員在第三季度繼續顯著增長,會員總數增加了 210 萬,達到約 1700 萬。這不僅僅是一項夾克營銷活動,推出了這一季並通過 Nuptse 夾克以及最近重新推出的引領業務的 Summit 系列高端產品線推動了全球外套的強勁增長。
Our recent first-ever performance-led co-lab launch with American artists and designer cars was highly successful. Net, the brand's momentum is strong and broad-based. The North Face is a solid and transferable execution blueprint for Vans and frankly, the entire VF portfolio in the Americas, where we must grow with consumers more consistently.
我們最近與美國藝術家和設計師汽車首次以性能為主導的合作實驗室推出非常成功。淨,品牌勢頭強勁,基礎廣泛。 The North Face 是 Vans 的堅實且可轉移的執行藍圖,坦率地說,美洲的整個 VF 產品組合,我們必須與消費者更一致地成長。
The second near-term priority at VF is to return to the company's hallmark standard of excellence in the supply chain arena. We are working through a variety of external and internal issues that impacted revenues and profits in a high-volume quarter like Q3. Length manufacturing and freight lead times, larger upfront product buys, unpredicted demand spikes from elevated promotional activity in the quarter, plus higher than normal customer order cancellations add up to unsatisfactory customer service, elevated inventory and significantly higher costs. So we're taking aggressive actions to address these issues. We expect to be able to work excess seasonal inventory down to more normalized levels by the end of Q4 of this fiscal year.
VF 的第二個近期優先事項是恢復公司在供應鏈領域卓越的標誌性標準。我們正在解決各種影響收入和利潤的外部和內部問題,這些問題在第三季度這樣的高銷量季度。較長的製造和貨運交貨時間、較大的前期產品購買量、本季度促銷活動增加導致的意外需求激增,以及高於正常水平的客戶訂單取消,這些都導致客戶服務不盡如人意、庫存增加和成本顯著增加。因此,我們正在採取積極行動來解決這些問題。我們預計到本財年第四季度末能夠將過剩的季節性庫存降至更正常的水平。
Our customer service levels are also improving, albeit still below our own and our customers' expectations. We have a plan in place to get back to target levels by the end of the first half of fiscal year '24. We will also leverage our logistics partnerships to reduce costs by improving ocean and parcel rates for the next fiscal year. And we will see a return to more normalized and predictable promotional patterns and anticipate moderating inflation, which we expect will contribute to lower costs through fiscal year '24. We are committed to serving our customers better and to getting back to strong supply chain performance at improved costs. Again, much of this is within our control.
我們的客戶服務水平也在提高,儘管仍低於我們自己和客戶的期望。我們制定了計劃,要在 24 財年上半年末恢復到目標水平。我們還將利用我們的物流合作夥伴關係,通過提高下一財年的海運和包裹費率來降低成本。我們將看到回歸到更正常化和可預測的促銷模式,並預計通脹將放緩,我們預計這將有助於降低 24 財年的成本。我們致力於更好地為客戶服務,並以降低的成本恢復強勁的供應鏈績效。同樣,其中大部分都在我們的控制範圍內。
My third message is that we're taking prudent steps to strengthen VF's financial position and build a stronger company. VF is committed to strong financial discipline. This all starts with a strong core and growth that is profitable and sustainable. And to reinforce this, we are taking significant actions now. We will focus our near-term growth efforts on our existing portfolio. Smart acquisitions will remain part of the VF playbook. But near term, we believe we are best served to return to strong shareholder value creation by taking advantage of the many opportunities offered by our portfolio of beloved brands, including those acquired in the recent years.
我的第三個信息是,我們正在採取謹慎的步驟來加強 VF 的財務狀況並打造一家更強大的公司。 VF 致力於嚴格的財務紀律。這一切都始於強大的核心業務和盈利且可持續的增長。為了加強這一點,我們現在正在採取重大行動。我們將把近期的增長努力集中在我們現有的投資組合上。智能收購仍將是 VF 劇本的一部分。但在短期內,我們認為,通過利用我們鍾愛的品牌組合(包括近年來收購的品牌)提供的眾多機會,我們最有利於回歸強大的股東價值創造。
Our growth strategy laid out in the company's Investor Day last September, continues to be a solid foundation to achieve this, but we will lean into the consumer even more strongly than in the past. We will also pursue strategic alternatives for our packs business. This business is performing well, but we need to make sure that we are the highest value owner and that we focus our resources against the highest value opportunities within our existing portfolio. To grow margins and profit while supporting strong investments in the business, we will lean into cost savings through a more systematic and ongoing cross-functional approach to eliminate costs that do have lower strategic value and are less consumer oriented. And we're making the tough, but what we believe to be a principled and financially responsible decision to cut our dividend by about 40%.
我們在去年 9 月的公司投資者日制定的增長戰略,仍然是實現這一目標的堅實基礎,但我們將比過去更強烈地向消費者傾斜。我們還將為我們的包裝業務尋求戰略選擇。這項業務表現良好,但我們需要確保我們是最高價值的所有者,並將我們的資源集中在現有投資組合中的最高價值機會上。為了在支持對業務的強大投資的同時增加利潤和利潤,我們將通過更系統和持續的跨職能方法來節省成本,以消除戰略價值較低且不太以消費者為導向的成本。我們正在做出艱難的決定,但我們認為這是一個有原則且對財務負責的決定,將我們的股息削減約 40%。
We do not take this last step lightly and fully understand the value of a solid dividend as part of a comprehensive approach to total shareholder value creation. But we also believe that it is prudent to rightsize the dividend to accelerate the path back to our target dividend payout and debt-to-EBITDA ratios and to rebuild the dividend from there based on solid expected cash flows and a return to sustained earnings growth beginning with fiscal year '24.
我們不會掉以輕心地邁出這最後一步,並充分理解穩定股息的價值,作為創造股東總價值的綜合方法的一部分。但我們也認為,明智的做法是調整股息規模,以加速回到我們的目標股息支付和債務與 EBITDA 比率,並根據穩健的預期現金流和恢復持續的盈利增長開始重建股息與'24財政年度。
Returning cash to shareholders through a strong dividend remains a key capital allocation priority. In a continued difficult environment, we are committed to return to a more profitable and consistent growth next fiscal year. Matt will talk you through these actions and the shape of our initial fiscal year expectations in more depth in a moment.
通過強勁的股息向股東返還現金仍然是資本配置的關鍵優先事項。在持續困難的環境中,我們致力於在下一個財政年度恢復更有利可圖和穩定的增長。馬特稍後將更深入地向您介紹這些行動以及我們最初財政年度預期的形狀。
My last message for you is that I'm even more optimistic today than I was 2 months ago about VF's future and our ability to return to strong long-term shareholder value creation. We have significant potential to unlock value from our unique brand portfolio. While not immune to the challenging macroeconomic environment near term, these brands will benefit from significant long-term category and consumer tailwinds. We will leverage these tailwinds and apply VF's best practices, scale and capabilities. A distinct competitive advantage. We have a clear set of near-term priorities to inject consistency of execution, which will improve performance across the business over time.
我要告訴你的最後一條信息是,我今天比 2 個月前對 VF 的未來以及我們恢復強大的長期股東價值創造的能力更加樂觀。我們有巨大的潛力從我們獨特的品牌組合中釋放價值。雖然短期內不能倖免於充滿挑戰的宏觀經濟環境,但這些品牌將受益於重要的長期品類和消費者順風。我們將利用這些順風並應用 VF 的最佳實踐、規模和能力。具有明顯的競爭優勢。我們有一套明確的近期優先事項來注入執行的一致性,這將隨著時間的推移提高整個企業的績效。
We will sharpen our consumer growth strategies on all our brands and ensure we have the right investments against each of them to realize their full potential funded by cost savings. And we have permission from consumers to broaden our reach by taking many of our brands into new financially attractive categories and countries, and we are putting in place strong future plans to do so. We are committed to returning to strong operational discipline, which will help drive predictability, profit and margin growth and strong and consistent cash flow generation. And we will remain committed to the dividend as part of our comprehensive shareholder value creation plan after today's adjustments.
我們將加強我們所有品牌的消費者增長戰略,並確保我們對每個品牌進行正確的投資,以通過節省成本來實現他們的全部潛力。我們已獲得消費者的許可,可以通過將我們的許多品牌帶入新的具有財務吸引力的類別和國家來擴大我們的影響力,並且我們正在製定強有力的未來計劃來實現這一目標。我們致力於恢復強有力的運營紀律,這將有助於推動可預測性、利潤和利潤率增長以及強勁和一致的現金流產生。在今天的調整之後,我們將繼續致力於派發股息,作為我們全面的股東價值創造計劃的一部分。
Lastly, we have a talented, engaged and passionate workforce. And we continue to nurture our superb internal talent and attract great new outside hires, reinforcing our confidence that VF remains a top destination for exceptional leaders. Thank you.
最後,我們擁有一支才華橫溢、敬業且充滿激情的員工隊伍。我們繼續培養我們優秀的內部人才,並吸引優秀的外部新員工,增強我們的信心,即 VF 仍然是傑出領導者的首選目的地。謝謝。
With that, I'll hand it over to Matt to talk through the financials.
有了這個,我會把它交給馬特來討論財務問題。
Matt H. Puckett - Executive VP & CFO
Matt H. Puckett - Executive VP & CFO
Thank you, Benno, and good afternoon, everyone. As Benno mentioned, our Q3 results amidst the continued difficult macro environment, exhibited areas of continued strength as well as parts of the business with clear opportunity for improvement.
謝謝你,Benno,大家下午好。正如 Benno 所提到的,在持續困難的宏觀環境中,我們第三季度的業績顯示出持續強勁的領域以及部分業務有明顯的改進機會。
During the quarter, revenue was up 3%, with balanced growth across both direct-to-consumer and wholesale. Adjusted gross margin was down 140 basis points. And adjusted operating margins declined by 280 basis points, leading to adjusted EPS of $1.12, down 17% or 10% in constant currency.
本季度,收入增長了 3%,直接面向消費者和批發業務實現了均衡增長。調整後的毛利率下降了 140 個基點。調整後的營業利潤率下降了 280 個基點,導致調整後的每股收益為 1.12 美元,按固定匯率計算下降 17% 或 10%。
Taking a look at our revenue results across geographies, the Americas region was down 1% during the quarter. As Benno alluded to in his remarks, North America was particularly challenging advance and also a Dickies due largely to the continued impact of inventory actions taken by their largest wholesale partner as well as softer performance across the value and work consumer. Momentum continued in the EMEA region, with revenue up 10%, which marked our seventh consecutive quarter of double-digit growth and represented broad-based strength across brands with 10 out of 11 brands in the geography growing during the quarter, including the 5 largest brands.
看看我們在各個地區的收入結果,本季度美洲地區下降了 1%。正如 Benno 在他的評論中提到的那樣,北美的進步尤其具有挑戰性,也是一個 Dickies,這主要是由於他們最大的批發合作夥伴採取的庫存行動的持續影響以及價值和工作消費者的疲軟表現。歐洲、中東和非洲地區的勢頭持續,收入增長 10%,這標誌著我們連續第七個季度實現兩位數增長,代表了各品牌的廣泛實力,該地區 11 個品牌中有 10 個品牌在本季度實現增長,其中包括 5 個最大的品牌品牌。
Looking at the countries, all major markets were growing with 4 of the top 5 by volume, up double digits. Lastly, in our APAC region, we saw further sequential improvement versus half 1 with revenue up 4%, driven by improving performance in Greater China, which was down 1% coupled with strong mid-teens growth in the rest of Asia, where most countries were up double digits.
從國家來看,所有主要市場都在增長,前 5 名中有 4 個增長了兩位數。最後,在我們的亞太地區,與上半年相比,我們看到了進一步的環比改善,收入增長了 4%,這主要得益於大中華區業績的改善(下降了 1%)以及亞洲其他地區(大多數國家/地區)的強勁增長。漲了兩位數。
Moving on to gross margin, which was down 140 basis points during the quarter. As anticipated, we saw mix become a tailwind in Q3 for the first time in several quarters, driven by the strength of our international business and channel mix. However, this was more than offset by rate, which was down 170 basis points at higher discounts and an increased promotional environment, also impacting our direct channels were partially offset by strategic pricing actions and FX transaction benefits.
轉向毛利率,本季度下降了 140 個基點。正如預期的那樣,在我們國際業務和渠道組合實力的推動下,我們看到組合在幾個季度內首次成為第三季度的順風。然而,這被利率所抵消,在更高的折扣和增加的促銷環境下利率下降了 170 個基點,這也影響了我們的直接渠道,但被戰略定價行動和外匯交易利益部分抵消了。
Moving down the P&L. Our adjusted operating margin was down by 280 basis points, reflecting the lower gross margin and 110 basis points of deleverage in SG&A, which grew at a 6% rate in constant dollars in the quarter, as compared to the revenue growth of 3%. The primary driver of deleverage was higher marketing spend, which accounted for about 75% of the increase in the SG&A ratio. In addition, deleveraging distribution and freight spending and some direct-to-consumer costs were mostly offset by spending reductions across SG&A.
向下移動損益表。我們調整後的營業利潤率下降了 280 個基點,反映了較低的毛利率和 SG&A 的去槓桿化 110 個基點,與收入增長 3% 相比,本季度按固定美元計算增長 6%。去槓桿化的主要驅動力是更高的營銷支出,佔 SG&A 比率增長的 75% 左右。此外,去槓桿化的分銷和貨運支出以及一些直接面向消費者的成本大部分被整個 SG&A 支出的減少所抵消。
As it relates to our cash position at the end of Q3, as anticipated, our liquidity increased during the quarter to approximately $1.9 billion, benefiting from the seasonality of earnings and a reduction in working capital. Within the quarter, we paid the Timberland tax deposits of approximately $875 million, funded by the issuance of a $1 billion term loan, which will mature in December 2024.
由於它與我們在第三季度末的現金狀況有關,正如預期的那樣,我們的流動性在本季度增加到約 19 億美元,這得益於收益的季節性和營運資金的減少。在本季度內,我們支付了約 8.75 億美元的 Timberland 稅收存款,資金來源是發行 10 億美元的定期貸款,該貸款將於 2024 年 12 月到期。
As Benno outlined earlier, we are taking clear actions to improve our operating performance while maintaining cost discipline and continuing to support our brands' growth opportunities.
正如 Benno 之前概述的那樣,我們正在採取明確的行動來提高我們的運營績效,同時保持成本控制並繼續支持我們品牌的增長機會。
Turning to the supply chain environment. We continue to see higher lead times across the supply chain during the quarter impact the business. In addition, higher volatility on the distribution and logistics side of things, particularly in the Americas, coupled with the higher volumes of the quarter and event-driven spikes in demand, led to inconsistent on-time delivery performance to our wholesale partners and inefficiencies in support of our direct-to-consumer business in the U.S. during parts of the quarter.
轉向供應鏈環境。我們繼續看到本季度整個供應鏈的交貨時間更長影響了業務。此外,分銷和物流方面的波動性更高,尤其是在美洲,加上本季度銷量增加和事件驅動的需求激增,導致我們批發合作夥伴的準時交貨表現不一致,效率低下在本季度的部分時間支持我們在美國的直接面向消費者的業務。
Looking forward, lead times are improving as anticipated, which will lead to better on-time performance, and we're seeing that with spring deliveries. Importantly, the predictability of ex factory dates or when the product leaves the factory is more reliable and aligned with historical performance. This is an important data point that will better position us to more fully service the business in fall of 2023 and beyond. In addition, we expect to see reduced and more normalized levels of airfreight volumes moving forward, a continued easing of ocean and air rates and generally more modest FOB inflationary impacts expected for fall '23 and spring '24 versus what we have seen over the last few seasons.
展望未來,交貨時間正在如預期的那樣改善,這將導致更好的準時性能,我們在春季交貨中看到了這一點。重要的是,出廠日期或產品出廠時間的可預測性更加可靠,並且與歷史性能保持一致。這是一個重要的數據點,它將使我們在 2023 年秋季及以後更好地為業務提供更全面的服務。此外,我們預計未來空運量將減少且更加正常化,海運和空運費率將持續下降,預計 23 年秋季和 24 年春季的 FOB 通脹影響與我們去年看到的情況相比總體上更為溫和幾個季節。
Let me take a couple of minutes to unpack our elevated inventory position today and the work we are doing to reduce it over the next few quarters. Net inventory levels are up 101% versus last year. With gross inventory, excluding the increase relating to change in eco terms to support the supply chain financing program, up 67% or approximately $850 million. Importantly, from a makeup standpoint, the dollar increase is primarily driven by core and excess replenishment inventory across brands, particularly in the Americas. This is primarily driven by COVID challenges affecting the supply chain with prolonged lead times leading to earlier and less accurate inventory buys, coupled with higher cancellations and lower demand as well as the prior year value comparison having been lower than optimal.
讓我花幾分鐘時間來談談我們今天高漲的庫存狀況,以及我們在未來幾個季度為減少庫存所做的工作。淨庫存水平比去年增長了 101%。總庫存,不包括與支持供應鏈融資計劃的生態條款變化相關的增長,增長 67% 或約 8.5 億美元。重要的是,從化妝的角度來看,美元的增長主要是由各品牌的核心和過剩補貨庫存推動的,尤其是在美洲。這主要是由影響供應鏈的 COVID 挑戰推動的,導致交貨時間延長,導致庫存購買更早且準確性更低,加上取消率更高和需求更低,以及前一年的價值比較低於最佳水平。
We expect to reduce total inventory levels by about $300 million during Q4, but will carry higher levels of core and replenishment inventory into fiscal year '24 across Dickies, the North Face and Vans, which are contemplated in the assortment and buy plans of the next season and which will moderate throughout the back half of calendar 2023.
我們預計第四季度的總庫存水平將減少約 3 億美元,但 Dickies、The North Face 和 Vans 的核心庫存和補貨庫存將在 24 財年保持更高水平,這些庫存將在下一個分類和購買計劃中考慮季節,這將在整個 2023 日曆的後半段緩和。
Moving on to the outlook for this fiscal year. We are affirming our EPS guidance at the midpoint of and our revenue outlook within the previous range. Within our revenue guidance of about 3% constant dollar growth, we now expect the North Face to be up at least 14% as the brand's broad-based momentum has continued through Q3 and into Q4. In fact, year-to-date, the brand is growing 17%.
繼續本財年的展望。我們確認我們的 EPS 指引處於之前範圍的中點,我們的收入前景在之前的範圍內。在我們約 3% 的固定美元增長的收入指導下,我們現在預計 North Face 將至少增長 14%,因為該品牌的廣泛勢頭一直持續到第三季度和第四季度。事實上,今年迄今為止,該品牌增長了 17%。
On the other hand, Vans is now projected to be down high single digits as the performance in the Americas region decelerated in Q3, and we expect Q4 will be impacted by the high inventory levels in the wholesale channel in the U.S. particularly. On a reported basis, we now see about 5 points of impact from the translation of foreign currency, which is slightly less negative than our previous outlook.
另一方面,由於第三季度美洲地區的業績放緩,Vans 現在預計將下降高個位數,我們預計第四季度將受到美國批發渠道高庫存水平的影響。根據報告,我們現在看到外幣換算的影響約為 5 點,這比我們之前的展望略有減少。
As a result of higher promotional and markdown activity and also reflecting higher order cancellations, we expect full year gross margins to be down about 200 basis points. We expect our operating margin to be around 9.5%. Our tax rate is expected to be 13% as we have a greater portion of the mix of regional profit from lower tax regimes, mainly in international markets. These changes lead to a tightened EPS range of $2.05 to $2.15, which sits within our previous outlook of $2 to $2.20.
由於更高的促銷和降價活動以及更高的訂單取消率,我們預計全年毛利率將下降約 200 個基點。我們預計我們的營業利潤率約為 9.5%。我們的稅率預計為 13%,因為我們有更大比例的區域利潤來自較低的稅收制度,主要是在國際市場。這些變化導致 EPS 範圍收緊至 2.05 美元至 2.15 美元,符合我們先前 2 至 2.20 美元的預期。
Our adjusted cash flow from operations, excluding the Timberland tax deposit made during Q3, is expected to be about $700 million as we continue to generate solid cash flows despite near-term setbacks in our operating performance. As we highlighted earlier in the year, we will be disciplined with our approach to spending on nonstrategic areas. And today, we've moderated our projected CapEx for the year to approximately $200 million from $230 million previously as we sharpen our investment focus on value creation opportunities and specifically those things that impact the consumer experience.
我們調整後的運營現金流(不包括第三季度的 Timberland 稅收存款)預計約為 7 億美元,因為儘管我們的經營業績近期遭遇挫折,但我們繼續產生穩健的現金流。正如我們在今年早些時候強調的那樣,我們將嚴格遵守我們在非戰略領域的支出方式。今天,我們將今年的預計資本支出從之前的 2.3 億美元下調至約 2 億美元,因為我們將投資重點放在價值創造機會上,特別是那些影響消費者體驗的事情上。
In summary, despite the challenges impacting our financial results this year, I'm pleased with the great progress and performance we're seeing in several of our businesses and geographies. And at the same time, the clear enterprise focus on improving our results in those areas where we are underperforming.
總而言之,儘管挑戰影響了我們今年的財務業績,但我對我們在多個業務和地區看到的巨大進步和業績感到高興。與此同時,明確的企業專注於改善我們表現不佳的領域的成果。
So let me say a few words about the next fiscal year, particularly our mindset and preliminary financial expectations. First and foremost, with the heightened intensity on planning, we will sharpen our execution in order to strengthen our operating performance and deliver more profitable and consistent financial results in fiscal year '24. We are watching very closely several factors that will have a bearing on our plans. The macroeconomic environment impacting consumer sentiment and spending on discretionary goods, particularly in Europe and the U.S. The recovery trajectory, travel and spending of the Chinese consumer as that market now fully begins to open back up. The inventory rightsizing that is happening across the marketplace. And finally, our own progress in turning around Vans and the timing of an inflection in that business.
因此,讓我談談下一個財政年度,特別是我們的心態和初步的財務預期。首先,隨著計劃強度的提高,我們將加強執行力,以加強我們的經營業績,並在 24 財年實現更有利可圖和一致的財務業績。我們正在密切關注影響我們計劃的幾個因素。影響消費者信心和可自由支配商品支出的宏觀經濟環境,尤其是在歐洲和美國。中國消費者的複蘇軌跡、旅行和支出隨著該市場現在開始全面開放而恢復。整個市場正在發生的庫存調整。最後,我們在扭轉 Vans 方面取得的進展以及該業務出現拐點的時機。
As we focus on driving profit margin expansion during the year, we expect continued broad-based growth across much of the portfolio in all geographies. And as a result, we expect revenue will increase in the range of at least low single digits. As for Vans, you heard Benno reference a number of actions to sequentially advance our plans to reset and reaccelerate, some of which will impact the business more quickly and others which will take longer. In addition, our wholesale partners have adopted a more conservative approach to the Spring/Summer order book impacted both by higher inventory levels in the channel and the ongoing challenging macroeconomic environment.
由於我們在年內專注於推動利潤率擴張,我們預計所有地區的大部分投資組合將持續廣泛增長。因此,我們預計收入將至少以低個位數增長。至於 Vans,你聽說 Benno 提到了一些行動來順序推進我們的重置和重新加速計劃,其中一些會更快地影響業務,而另一些則需要更長的時間。此外,我們的批發合作夥伴對春夏訂單簿採取了更為保守的方法,因為受到渠道中較高庫存水平和持續充滿挑戰的宏觀經濟環境的影響。
As a result, we will continue to see declines in the business, particularly in the Americas through the first half of fiscal year '24. We would expect to generate low double-digit operating earnings growth with an expansion in both gross and operating margin. Our actions to increase earnings will include improving profit margins at Vans while revenue stabilizes, generating cost savings from a more efficient supply chain and continuing to realize the benefits of our ongoing SG&A optimization. We'll also benefit from the efforts to realign inventories over the next few quarters. And coupled with earnings growth, we expect to deliver meaningful increases in both operating and free cash flows in fiscal year '24.
因此,我們將繼續看到業務下滑,尤其是在 24 財年上半年的美洲業務。隨著毛利率和營業利潤率的擴大,我們預計將產生兩位數的低營業利潤增長。我們增加收入的行動將包括在收入穩定的同時提高 Vans 的利潤率,從更高效的供應鏈中節省成本,並繼續實現我們正在進行的 SG&A 優化的好處。我們還將受益於未來幾個季度調整庫存的努力。加上收益增長,我們預計 24 財年的運營現金流和自由現金流都將實現有意義的增長。
In fact, we expect operating cash flow to grow at an accelerated rate relative to earnings. I look forward to updating you with more details when we provide our full outlook and plans in May. Our capital allocation priorities in the near to medium term will be focused on supporting and driving the performance of our current portfolio, reducing leverage and returning capital to shareholders in the form of a dividend. And today, we announced a number of strategic actions to accelerate the path to our target leverage ratios while enhancing our focus on value creation.
事實上,我們預計經營現金流相對於收益將以更快的速度增長。當我們在 5 月份提供完整的展望和計劃時,我期待著為您提供更多詳細信息。我們在中短期內的資本配置重點將集中在支持和推動我們當前投資組合的業績、降低杠桿率以及以股息的形式向股東返還資本。今天,我們宣布了一系列戰略行動,以加速實現我們的目標槓桿率,同時加強我們對價值創造的關注。
First, the Board has declared a dividend of $0.30 per share, or a reduction of approximately 40% relative to the last quarterly payment. An action that demonstrates the company's financial prudence, considering both an uncertain macro environment and recent inconsistent operational performance. As we look to rightsize the dividend to our target payout ratio of about 50% and accelerate the path to our gross leverage target of 2.5x.
首先,董事會宣布派發每股 0.30 美元的股息,或比上一季度派息減少約 40%。考慮到不確定的宏觀環境和近期不一致的經營業績,此舉表明公司在財務上審慎。我們希望將股息調整到我們約 50% 的目標派息率,並加速實現我們 2.5 倍的總槓桿率目標。
In fact, to do a little math for you based on the adjustment to the dividend and the comments today about earnings growth next fiscal year, the payout ratio would be in the mid-50% range in fiscal year '24. We will then increase the dividend in the future, in line with earnings growth. In addition, as part of our ongoing active portfolio management, we are announcing our intention to explore strategic alternatives for our packs business, including the Kipling, Eastpak and JanSport brands, as we take another step in streamlining and focusing our portfolio of brands. As an outcome of this process, we're committed to ensuring these brands are optimally positioned to achieve their full potential while enhancing VF's management focus on our top strategic priorities.
事實上,根據對股息的調整和今天關於下一財年收益增長的評論,為你做一點數學計算,24 財年的派息率將在 50% 的中間範圍內。然後,我們將在未來根據收益增長增加股息。此外,作為我們正在進行的積極投資組合管理的一部分,我們宣布打算為我們的包裝業務探索戰略替代方案,包括 Kipling、Eastpak 和 JanSport 品牌,因為我們在精簡和集中我們的品牌組合方面又邁出了一步。作為這一過程的結果,我們致力於確保這些品牌處於最佳定位以發揮其全部潛力,同時加強 VF 的管理重點,使其專注於我們的首要戰略重點。
Also, we are executing a number of asset sales, which are aligned with our strategic priorities and combined will generate more than $100 million in cash proceeds. We will reduce working capital and align inventories to optimal levels over the next few quarters.
此外,我們正在進行多項資產出售,這些資產符合我們的戰略重點,合併後將產生超過 1 億美元的現金收益。我們將在未來幾個季度減少營運資金並將庫存調整至最佳水平。
And finally, we will increase our efforts to reduce costs in order to point resources toward the company's highest value creation opportunities. This includes several previously announced cost-saving actions, which have been progressively building towards delivering approximately $225 million in annualized savings once completed in fiscal year '24. I'm confident these actions will enable us to strengthen our financial position and sharpen our focus, specifically providing the financial flexibility to enable an accelerated path toward our target leverage metric ensure even if facing ongoing macroeconomic challenges, we'll have continued capacity to fully support our biggest organic value creation opportunities. And finally, to continue returning cash to shareholders through the dividend.
最後,我們將加大降低成本的力度,以便將資源用於公司創造最高價值的機會。這包括之前宣布的幾項成本節約行動,這些行動一直在逐步推進,一旦在 24 財年完成,每年可節省約 2.25 億美元。我相信這些行動將使我們能夠加強我們的財務狀況並加強我們的重點,特別是提供財務靈活性以加快實現我們的目標槓桿指標確保即使面臨持續的宏觀經濟挑戰,我們也將有能力繼續充分支持我們最大的有機價值創造機會。最後,繼續通過股息向股東返還現金。
In summary, VF's brand portfolio is well positioned to deliver long-term sustainable and profitable growth. That hasn't changed. And importantly, in the near term, I'm confident the steps we are taking now will lead to elevated shareholder value creation through improved operating performance and consistent earnings and cash flow growth.
總而言之,VF 的品牌組合完全有能力實現長期可持續的盈利增長。那沒有改變。重要的是,在短期內,我相信我們現在採取的措施將通過改善經營業績以及持續的收益和現金流增長來提高股東價值的創造。
With that, we'll open the line to your questions.
這樣,我們將打開您的問題熱線。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) And our first question comes from Laurent Vasilescu with BNP Paribas.
(操作員說明)我們的第一個問題來自法國巴黎銀行的 Laurent Vasilescu。
Laurent Andre Vasilescu - Research Analyst
Laurent Andre Vasilescu - Research Analyst
Benno, I'd love to ask about Vans. What gives you the confidence that changes you're implementing at the brand are the right strategies and will make a difference in turning this business around? And then I have a follow-up question regarding the dividend.
Benno,我想問問關於 Vans 的事。是什麼讓您相信您在品牌中實施的變革是正確的策略,並將對扭轉該業務產生影響?然後我有一個關於股息的後續問題。
Benno O. Dorer - Interim President, CEO & Director
Benno O. Dorer - Interim President, CEO & Director
Yes. Thanks for the question, Laurent. Several ways of answering your question. The first one is that we have a role model in-house that does exactly what we're trying to do at Vans and that's North Face. And that's performing exceedingly well as results were evident this last quarter. The second thing that gives me confidence really is that it's clear that improving the performance is not some obscure concept, but it's entirely within our control. We know how to do this. And the way to bring Vans back is by consistently executing against consumers with excellence. What that means is great product, great marketing, great shopping experiences and of course, the customer service issues that we talked about.
是的。謝謝你的問題,洛朗。回答你的問題的幾種方法。第一個是我們內部有一個榜樣,它做的正是我們在 Vans 嘗試做的事情,那就是 North Face。這表現得非常好,因為上個季度的結果很明顯。第二件真正讓我充滿信心的事情是,很明顯,提高性能並不是什麼晦澀難懂的概念,而是完全在我們的控制範圍內。我們知道如何做到這一點。而讓 Vans 回歸的方法是始終如一地以卓越的方式對付消費者。這意味著出色的產品、出色的營銷、出色的購物體驗,當然還有我們談到的客戶服務問題。
And then when we think about the specific plan in which we indeed have quite a bit of confidence, there are a number of actions that impact the business now. As I said in my remarks, we're moving to ROI-based digital spending, and we're seeing really strong results behind that. We're boosting awareness of existing product platforms like UltraRange, and we're seeing good results behind that. We have new products expanding now like a low land and our new school shoes and also UltraRange VR 3, those are going out now, and we think that those are attractive new products.
然後當我們考慮我們確實有相當信心的具體計劃時,現在有許多影響業務的行動。正如我在發言中所說,我們正在轉向基於投資回報率的數字支出,我們看到了這背後非常強勁的結果。我們正在提高對 UltraRange 等現有產品平台的認識,我們看到了這背後的良好結果。我們現在有像低地一樣擴展的新產品,還有我們的新校鞋和 UltraRange VR 3,它們現在正在推出,我們認為這些是有吸引力的新產品。
And finally, I have seen the new challenge that we've brought in to complement our leadership team in action and I have high confidence in them. And if you add to that some of the more fundamental changes that we're making, which will begin to impact the business in the second half of next fiscal year, like the new consumer segmentation, like a digital-first operating model and a new go-to-market upgrades, which again, we've already applied in EMEA, in Europe, and that's working well. The SKU reduction for which we have a store test with really strong results. And then to add on top, the increased spending that we're planning to put in place behind product innovation. Those are all very tangible things. Those are things that have worked for Vans in the past. Those are working elsewhere in the portfolio, and those are all on us.
最後,我看到了我們為補充我們領導團隊的行動而帶來的新挑戰,我對他們充滿信心。如果你再加上我們正在做的一些更根本的改變,這些改變將在下個財政年度下半年開始影響業務,比如新的消費者細分,比如數字優先的運營模式和新的進入市場升級,我們已經在歐洲、歐洲、中東和非洲地區進行了應用,而且效果很好。 SKU 減少,我們對其進行了商店測試,結果非常好。然後最重要的是,我們計劃在產品創新背後增加支出。這些都是非常有形的東西。這些都是過去對 Vans 有用的東西。那些在投資組合的其他地方工作,而這些都在我們身上。
And that's really the good news here. The good news, bad news, I should say. The bad news is that we're in this situation but the good news is that addressing the performance opportunity that we have on Vans is entirely within our control, and we're pursuing a plan that is very specific and very credible with a high sense of urgency. That's where my confidence comes from.
這真的是個好消息。好消息,壞消息,我應該說。壞消息是我們處於這種情況,但好消息是解決我們在 Vans 上的表現機會完全在我們的控制範圍內,我們正在追求一個非常具體和非常可信的計劃緊急。這就是我信心的來源。
Laurent Andre Vasilescu - Research Analyst
Laurent Andre Vasilescu - Research Analyst
Very helpful, Benno. And then Matt, on the dividend, what changed since your last update? Is this an indication that capital allocation priorities has shifted? How do we know there isn't a bigger dividend cut coming? And then on the Packs business, I think it's about a $500 million, $600 million revenue business. Can you kind of give us some framework? I think you talked about $100 million cash proceeds from noncore assets. Any kind of benchmark on how we think about potential cash proceeds from the sale of these noncore assets?
非常有幫助,本諾。然後馬特,關於股息,自您上次更新以來發生了什麼變化?這是否表明資本配置的優先順序發生了變化?我們怎麼知道不會有更大的股息削減?然後在 Packs 業務上,我認為這是一項大約 5 億美元、6 億美元的收入業務。你能給我們一些框架嗎?我想你談到了來自非核心資產的 1 億美元現金收益。關於我們如何考慮出售這些非核心資產的潛在現金收益的任何基準?
Benno O. Dorer - Interim President, CEO & Director
Benno O. Dorer - Interim President, CEO & Director
Laurent, I'll get going on a dividend, and I'll let Matt comment on your second question around Packs. So as I also said in my remarks, rightsizing the dividend is not a step we took lightly and -- but we strongly believe it's necessary and prudent. What this does is it strengthens our balance sheet. Our gross debt to EBITDA right now is about 4.5x, and this gets us much closer to our target of 2.5:1. It realigns to our target payout ratio of 50%, and we expect to land close to that in fiscal year '24. Of course, we'll continue to offer strong dividends to our shareholders, which is important.
勞倫特,我將開始分紅,我將讓馬特評論你關於 Packs 的第二個問題。因此,正如我在發言中所說,合理調整股息並不是我們輕率採取的步驟——但我們堅信這是必要和謹慎的。這樣做是為了加強我們的資產負債表。我們目前對 EBITDA 的總債務約為 4.5 倍,這使我們更接近 2.5:1 的目標。它重新調整到我們 50% 的目標派息率,我們預計將在 24 財年接近這一水平。當然,我們將繼續為股東提供豐厚的股息,這很重要。
So to answer your question directly, after this onetime adjustment, we remain very committed to the dividend. This was an important part of comprehensive TSR package for our shareholders, and we expect to grow it in line with earnings from here on out.
所以直接回答你的問題,在這次一次性調整之後,我們仍然非常致力於股息。對於我們的股東來說,這是全面的 TSR 一攬子計劃的重要組成部分,我們預計從現在開始它會隨著收益的增長而增長。
And then what are we going to do with the capital. We have pay down debt, serve the dividends. And then I would say, secondarily, but still importantly, it gives us flexibility to invest in our brands and consumers. And as you've heard, that's the core theme for us today, free up money from within our P&L that we can invest in our brands and consumers. But this would protect us against the potential downside scenario macroeconomically if there's a downturn, we will still be able to execute this plan. But in an ideal scenario, we'll also invest incrementally in the progress against our plan. As you've heard, we have confidence in it, but it's also early. But what we'll do is stay agile to invest and when we think we can get a return, we'll also be confident to increase our investment. And this dividend cut will put us in a position to do so. Matt, do you want to comment on Packs?
然後我們將如何處理首都。我們已經償還債務,提供紅利。然後我想說,其次但仍然重要的是,它使我們能夠靈活地投資於我們的品牌和消費者。正如你所聽到的,這是我們今天的核心主題,從我們的 P&L 中釋放資金,我們可以投資於我們的品牌和消費者。但這將保護我們免受潛在的宏觀經濟下行情景的影響,如果出現衰退,我們仍然能夠執行該計劃。但在理想情況下,我們也會根據我們的計劃逐步投資於進展。正如您所聽到的,我們對此充滿信心,但現在還為時過早。但我們要做的是保持敏捷投資,當我們認為可以得到回報時,我們也會有信心增加投資。而這次股息削減將使我們能夠這樣做。 Matt,你想對 Packs 發表評論嗎?
Matt H. Puckett - Executive VP & CFO
Matt H. Puckett - Executive VP & CFO
Yes, Laurent. Really, both of these announcements, the dividend and Packs, we believe are the prudent actions to take at this time, specific to the Packs, active portfolio management, small, mini core competency and strength of VF and remains a priority of our Board. The evergreen evaluation efforts that are always underway and the process has led us to the determination. We're likely not the best owner of these brands at this time. And we need to ensure the focus of our management team, and the focus of our capital, while at the same time, giving these great brands the best opportunity to reach their full potential.
是的,洛朗。實際上,我們認為這兩個公告、股息和 Packs 都是此時採取的審慎行動,具體針對 Packs、積極的投資組合管理、小型、迷你核心競爭力和 VF 的實力,並且仍然是我們董事會的優先事項。一直在進行的常青評估工作和過程使我們下定決心。我們目前可能不是這些品牌的最佳所有者。我們需要確保我們的管理團隊和資本的專注,同時為這些偉大的品牌提供充分發揮其潛力的最佳機會。
Let me state though, and really to those brand teams as well. These brands are terrific brands and businesses and they're performing well. We've seen strong revenue and margin growth in fiscal year '23 from all these brands. And this is Eastpak, JanSport and Kipling collectively. And they're benefiting from a return to the usage occasions that they really are leaders in, travel gear, school packs, and school gear, other activities. It's a process we've begun. It's going to take some time. We certainly won't rush it. We don't need to do that, but we're very confident we'll determine and find the right and best owner of these brands.
不過,讓我說明一下,對那些品牌團隊也是如此。這些品牌都是很棒的品牌和企業,而且表現良好。我們在所有這些品牌的 23 財年看到了強勁的收入和利潤增長。這是 Eastpak、JanSport 和 Kipling 的統稱。他們受益於回到他們真正領先的使用場合,旅行裝備、學校背包和學校裝備,以及其他活動。這是一個我們已經開始的過程。這需要一些時間。我們當然不會急於求成。我們不需要這樣做,但我們非常有信心我們會確定並找到這些品牌的最佳所有者。
And as it relates to proceeds, it's kind of the same message that we -- that Benno reiterated in terms of the proceeds, in terms of the use of capital, accelerating our path to deleverage, supporting growth and value-creating opportunities in our organic business and we continue to prioritize the return of capital in the form of the dividend. And we'll grow it with earnings moving forward.
就收益而言,這與我們 - Benno 在收益方面重申的信息相同,在資本使用方面,加速我們去槓桿化的道路,支持我們有機業務中的增長和創造價值的機會業務,我們繼續以股息的形式優先考慮資本回報。我們將隨著收益的增長而增長。
And lastly, on the noncore assets that I mentioned in my remarks, $100 million, that's really primarily nonstrategic land and real estate. Also includes the previously announced, at least it's certainly an external known, the sale and leaseback of our headquarter location in Stabio, Switzerland which we thought made infinite economic sense. So that's all inside that $100 million, which will all be finished in cash in the bank, so to speak, by the end of our fiscal year.
最後,關於我在發言中提到的非核心資產,即 1 億美元,這實際上主要是非戰略性土地和房地產。還包括之前宣布的,至少它肯定是外部已知的,我們認為在瑞士斯塔比奧的總部所在地的售後回租具有無限的經濟意義。所以這都在這 1 億美元之內,可以說,到我們的財政年度結束時,這一切都將在銀行以現金形式完成。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from Dana Telsey with Telsey Advisory Group.
我們的下一個問題來自 Telsey Advisory Group 的 Dana Telsey。
Dana Lauren Telsey - CEO & Chief Research Officer
Dana Lauren Telsey - CEO & Chief Research Officer
As you think about the initiatives for enhancing the business in all the brands, frankly, what do you see is the inventory structure going forward, how that changes given the wholesale account base and how they're placing orders go forward?
當您考慮加強所有品牌業務的舉措時,坦率地說,您如何看待未來的庫存結構,鑑於批發賬戶基礎的變化以及他們如何下訂單?
Matt H. Puckett - Executive VP & CFO
Matt H. Puckett - Executive VP & CFO
Dana, thank you. Yes, I mean certainly, inventory has been a challenge. It's been an overhang for us for a couple of quarters and continue to certainly persist. Our inventories kind of nearly doubled on an absolute value, if you just look at the balance sheet, clearly, there's an impact there of the in-transit inventory on the comparison. When you back that out, we're up about 67% on a gross kind of comparable basis year-over-year with most of the increase in the Americas.
丹娜,謝謝你。是的,我的意思是,庫存一直是一個挑戰。幾個季度以來,這一直是我們的懸念,並且肯定會繼續存在。我們的庫存在絕對值上幾乎翻了一番,如果你只看資產負債表,很明顯,在途庫存對比較有影響。當你支持這一點時,我們在可比基礎上同比增長了約 67%,其中大部分增長發生在美洲。
I think as you think about moving forward, we actually think there's opportunity to get more efficient with our inventory as we get closer to market. One of the challenges that we faced this year is the elongated lead times led to earlier buys, which ultimately led to lower forecast accuracy, which created excess inventory that's been exaggerated by the higher level of cancellations through the fall and even the late deliveries at the same time, which also led to higher cancellations. So we've got a lot of inventory today. Fortunately, it's primarily in core carryover replenishment inventory. We'll carry that moving forward into fiscal year '24, even after a pretty substantial reduction in inventory here Q4. And we've got plans in place. It really is contemplated in the next season in terms of merchandising and assortment plans, and we'll work our way through it.
我認為當你考慮前進時,我們實際上認為隨著我們接近市場,有機會提高我們的庫存效率。我們今年面臨的挑戰之一是交貨時間延長導致提前購買,最終導致預測準確性降低,從而造成庫存過剩,而秋季取消的數量增加甚至在同時,這也導致更高的取消率。所以我們今天有很多庫存。幸運的是,它主要存在於核心結轉補貨庫存中。我們將繼續推進到 24 財年,即使在第四季度的庫存大幅減少之後也是如此。我們已經制定了計劃。確實在下一季的商品銷售和分類計劃中考慮到了這一點,我們將努力完成它。
But if you think about where we're moving forward, our direct-to-consumer business becoming a larger percent of the total, we think that's a good thing overall, I mean, from an inventory management standpoint. Certainly, we love the idea that we have a large outlet network to move through excess inventories, and that's always our first avenue. But the work that we're doing to more modernize the supply chain, and Benno talked about some of the things that we need to be doing there, we think will allow us to be more efficient from an inventory utilization moving forward, not less.
但是,如果您考慮我們前進的方向,我們的直接面向消費者的業務佔總業務的比例更大,我們認為從庫存管理的角度來看,這總體上是一件好事。當然,我們喜歡這樣的想法,即我們擁有龐大的銷售網絡來處理過剩庫存,而這始終是我們的首要途徑。但是我們正在做的使供應鏈更加現代化的工作,以及 Benno 談到了我們需要在那裡做的一些事情,我們認為這將使我們能夠從庫存利用中提高效率,而不是更低。
Operator
Operator
And our next question comes from Michael Binetti with Credit Suisse.
我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Michael Binetti。
Michael Charles Binetti - Research Analyst
Michael Charles Binetti - Research Analyst
I guess just the first one, Benno, the company is known over long periods as a best-in-class supply chain operator. You pointed to a medium-sized list there of items that you think it sounds like you think got off track. I'm curious what you think happened in the supply chain, what do you think has changed there?
我想只有第一個,Benno,該公司長期以來被稱為一流的供應鏈運營商。你指著那裡的一個中等大小的列表,其中列出了你認為聽起來像是偏離軌道的項目。我很好奇您認為供應鏈中發生了什麼,您認為那裡發生了什麼變化?
And then maybe this one is for Matt. But I think to get to double-digit EPS growth on the low single-digit revenue growth next year, trying to think about how you're building that. I think you need to pencil out to about 100 basis points of EBIT expansion -- EBIT margin expansion. Maybe just trying to help us think about some of the high-level drivers there. I'm assuming it tilts to the back half of the year, given the comments on Vans revenues in the first half and how to think about the gross margin expanding next year with the inventory up relative to sales in the fourth quarter heading into the year?
然後也許這個是給馬特的。但我認為要在明年的低個位數收入增長的基礎上實現兩位數的每股收益增長,試著思考你是如何建立它的。我認為你需要將息稅前利潤擴張約 100 個基點——息稅前利潤率擴張。也許只是想幫助我們思考那裡的一些高級驅動程序。考慮到上半年 Vans 收入的評論,以及如何考慮明年第四季度庫存相對於銷售額的增長,毛利率將擴大,我假設它會在今年下半年傾斜?
Benno O. Dorer - Interim President, CEO & Director
Benno O. Dorer - Interim President, CEO & Director
Michael, thanks for the question. I'll take the one on supply chain. And I will say coming into this role, clearly, as you say, supply chain is known to be a hallmark strength for VF. And I think in general, and over a prolonged period of time, that's a reputation that's well reserved. But that doesn't mean that we can't be clear eyed about the issues. And some of the issues, certainly, I think we're known before, especially the longer lead times on the manufacturing and freight. But I would say these issues were exacerbated in Q3 given that it's the high-volume quarter, but also because there was so much volatility, high promotions to get rid of inventory. Order cancellations from customers in part because the consumer, of course, is somewhat cautious, but in part also because we haven't been able to meet their expectations and therefore, they cut cancellations in anticipation of perhaps further customer service issues.
邁克爾,謝謝你的提問。我會在供應鏈上拿一個。我會說進入這個角色,正如你所說,供應鏈顯然是 VF 的標誌性優勢。而且我認為總的來說,在很長一段時間內,這是一個很好的保留的聲譽。但這並不意味著我們不能看清問題。當然,有些問題,我想我們以前就知道了,尤其是製造和貨運的交貨時間更長。但我要說的是,這些問題在第三季度更加嚴重,因為這是一個高銷量的季度,而且還因為波動太大,為擺脫庫存而進行的高促銷活動。客戶取消訂單的部分原因當然是消費者有些謹慎,但部分原因還在於我們無法滿足他們的期望,因此他們減少了取消訂單,以防出現進一步的客戶服務問題。
And then you add the strain from longer lead times, that really gives you a confluence of issues that created a perfect storm in this quarter. And I would say that part of it is maybe that my added perspective coming into the business shift is the perspective within our team a little bit and our own role in these issues. But the fact is this quarter had a lot of volatility and pressure on the supply chain. And it did expose some of the internal issues, and we'll talk about them. All fixable, but certainly requiring a lot of focus.
然後你加上更長的交貨時間帶來的壓力,這真的給你帶來了一系列問題,在本季度創造了一場完美的風暴。我想說,部分原因可能是我對業務轉變的額外看法是我們團隊內部的看法以及我們自己在這些問題中的角色。但事實是,本季度供應鏈出現了很大的波動和壓力。而且它確實暴露了一些內部問題,我們將討論這些問題。一切都可以修復,但肯定需要大量關注。
So maybe first, where we are is against the higher manufacturing and shipping lead times, we're seeing improvements. Those have started to come down, and we need to continue to focus on that trajectory. The customer service clearly is unsatisfactory. And we're putting a lot of work in place to be back on track by the end of the first half and fiscal year '24. Matt talked about higher excess seasonal inventory. We're making good progress and assuming that to be more normalized by the end of Q4 of this fiscal year. And our cost to serve clearly are higher, and we'll see improvements throughout fiscal year '24 starting with Q1. So this all is going to stay with us a little bit, but we're expecting improvements from here on out.
因此,也許首先,我們所處的位置是針對更高的製造和運輸交貨時間,我們看到了改進。這些已經開始下降,我們需要繼續關注這一軌跡。客戶服務顯然不能令人滿意。我們正在開展大量工作,以便在上半年和 24 財年結束前重回正軌。馬特談到更高的季節性庫存過剩。我們正在取得良好進展,並假設到本財年第四季度末將更加正常化。而且我們的服務成本顯然更高,從第一季度開始,我們將在整個 24 財年看到改善。所以這一切都會留在我們身邊,但我們期待從現在開始有所改進。
So specifically, what we're going to do about it is, first off, this is a business-by-business action plan. The businesses that are most affected by this are the North Face and Timberland. So those businesses saw growth in Q3, but they could have frankly seen more growth in the quarter had we not held them back somewhat through these issues. So we have a high focus on distribution network optimization. We are working on peak warehousing capacity planning, so we don't have to use as many external facilities, which gives you inflexibility and also gives you higher cost. We need greater agility to react to short-term changes. So the business by business action plan is very detailed. And varies a little bit by business. We're working with our strategic supply chain partners to address the lead times and costs, which will include improving ocean freight costs and we're starting to see positive movement there and expect quite a bit of improvement starting in fiscal year '24.
所以具體來說,我們要做的是,首先,這是一個逐個企業的行動計劃。受此影響最大的企業是 North Face 和 Timberland。所以這些企業在第三季度看到了增長,但坦率地說,如果我們沒有通過這些問題阻礙他們,他們本可以在本季度看到更多的增長。因此,我們高度重視配電網絡優化。我們正在進行峰值倉儲能力規劃,因此我們不必使用那麼多的外部設施,這會給您帶來不靈活性,也會給您帶來更高的成本。我們需要更大的靈活性來應對短期變化。因此,逐個企業的行動計劃非常詳細。並且因業務而異。我們正在與我們的戰略供應鏈合作夥伴合作,以解決交貨時間和成本問題,其中包括改善海運成本,我們開始看到這方面的積極進展,並預計從 24 財年開始會有相當大的改善。
Importantly, we need to return to better sales and operations planning. And again, to your question, what happened, I would say that's an area where the team would suggest that we've lost some focus during the COVID period, and we're now getting back to reestablishing strong routines. Routines that this company knows, that this company is well capable of executing and as a complement, also as an executive team, we're spending a lot of time focusing on this. We have 5 weekly meetings. We are eliminating barriers to getting rid of these problems. And we're helping with agile decision-making, which certainly is going to make a big difference.
重要的是,我們需要恢復更好的銷售和運營規劃。再一次,對於你的問題,發生了什麼,我想說這是一個團隊會建議我們在 COVID 期間失去了一些重點的領域,我們現在正在重新建立強有力的例程。這家公司知道的例程,這家公司有能力很好地執行,作為一個補充,作為一個執行團隊,我們花了很多時間專注於此。我們每周有 5 次會議。我們正在消除消除這些問題的障礙。我們正在幫助敏捷決策,這肯定會產生很大的不同。
So I would say the overall theme here is operating discipline, and that's something that VF been very good at and that's something that we can reinstill in the business. We're taking aggressive actions, we're seeing improvements. And beyond that, we're also advancing the strategic work to transform our supply chain to be more digitally led, more automated, more agile and more consumer centric. That's work that our EVP overseeing the supply chain, Cameron Bailey, outlined in the September Investor Day. And I would say the short-term work that we're doing gets us back from where we are to good. And then this more strategic work gets us back from good to great, and that's certainly our aspiration. And again, that's all within our control.
所以我想說這裡的總體主題是運營紀律,這是 VF 非常擅長的事情,也是我們可以在業務中重新灌輸的事情。我們正在採取積極的行動,我們看到了改進。除此之外,我們還在推進戰略工作,將我們的供應鏈轉變為更加數字化、更加自動化、更加敏捷和更加以消費者為中心。這是我們負責監督供應鏈的執行副總裁 Cameron Bailey 在 9 月投資者日概述的工作。我想說的是,我們正在做的短期工作讓我們回到了良好的狀態。然後這項更具戰略意義的工作讓我們從優秀回到卓越,這當然是我們的願望。再一次,這一切都在我們的控制範圍內。
Matt H. Puckett - Executive VP & CFO
Matt H. Puckett - Executive VP & CFO
Yes, Michael, the second part of your question on the outlook for next year. And I think certainly, we're in the midst of our planning process. So I'm sensitive here in terms of not getting too far ahead of ourselves, but we clearly wanted to provide some expectations and kind of how we're thinking and how we're seeing next year unfold as it relates to top and bottom line. I agree with your kind of sentiment in terms of what it would take.
是的,邁克爾,你的問題的第二部分是關於明年的前景。我認為當然,我們正處於規劃過程中。所以我在這裡很敏感,不要太超前,但我們顯然想提供一些期望和我們的想法,以及我們如何看待明年的發展,因為它與頂線和底線有關.我同意你關於需要什麼的觀點。
My comment today was about double-digit operating earnings growth, I haven't said anything yet about what it means below EBIT in essence. But we do need to see a little bit of margin improvement and how I think about that and kind of what the puts and takes there are from a margin standpoint, it's primarily in gross margin, I would say, in my view. There are tailwinds. We do expect an overall lower promotional environment through the year. We'll come into the year with a bit heavier inventory. But remember, most of that inventory is core carryover replenishment product that won't necessarily need to be marked down or discounted in a significant way next year.
我今天的評論是關於兩位數的營業收入增長,我還沒有說任何低於 EBIT 的本質含義。但我們確實需要看到一點點利潤率的改善,以及我如何看待這一點,以及從利潤率的角度來看,看跌期權和買進是什麼,我認為這主要是毛利率。有順風。我們確實預計全年的促銷環境總體較低。我們將帶著更多的庫存進入這一年。但請記住,大部分庫存是核心結轉補貨產品,明年不一定需要大幅降價或打折。
We're biting the bullet pretty aggressively here in Q4 to move through that seasonal excess which is a bit heavy at the end of December, we're going to be back at the end of March, kind of at a normal level of seasonal excess coming out of our fiscal year, maybe a little elevated, but something pretty manageable. So we think the inventory position, while heavy, will create some cost pressures in the short term, we don't think it's a huge overhang from a promotional standpoint throughout next year.
我們在第 4 季度非常積極地咬緊牙關,以度過 12 月底有點沉重的季節性過剩,我們將在 3 月底回歸,處於季節性過剩的正常水平從我們的財政年度出來,可能有點高,但還是很容易控制的。因此,我們認為庫存狀況雖然沉重,但會在短期內造成一些成本壓力,我們認為從明年的促銷角度來看,這不會是一個巨大的懸而未決的問題。
Freight, we expect to be a bit of a tailwind. That's both -- the mode, we're going to see a lot less usage of air freight. That's already happened. We're not going to see a lot here in Q4, by the way. But as you look throughout the year, we're going to see, we think, some moderating costs on the freight side. We do have some targeted pricing actions, less than we've seen in prior seasons but we have some there. And we think mix will be a slight benefit. It was good to see mix come back and be a benefit here in this most recent quarter. There are headwinds for sure. There will continue to be some FOB cost increase, a little bit more modest than we've seen over the last few seasons. We expect FX given our hedging program to be a little bit of a headwind as well.
貨運,我們預計會有點順風。這就是 - 模式,我們將看到空運的使用量大大減少。那已經發生了。順便說一句,我們在第四季度不會看到太多。但是,從全年來看,我們認為,我們將看到貨運方面的一些節製成本。我們確實有一些有針對性的定價行動,比我們在前幾季看到的要少,但我們有一些。我們認為混合會有一點好處。很高興看到混合回歸併在最近一個季度在這裡受益。肯定有逆風。 FOB 成本將繼續增加,比我們在過去幾個季節看到的要小一些。考慮到我們的對沖計劃,我們預計外匯也會有點不利。
So there's definitely some puts and takes but we would net on the side of our gross margin expansion opportunity, which will flow into operating margin.
所以肯定有一些看跌期權,但我們會在毛利率擴張機會方面淨賺,這將流入營業利潤率。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from Brooke Roach with Goldman Sachs.
我們的下一個問題來自高盛的布魯克羅奇。
Brooke Siler Roach - Research Analyst
Brooke Siler Roach - Research Analyst
My question is on the North Face. As you exit the winter selling season, can you talk a little bit about the channel inventories that you have for that brand? And any initial order books that you're seeing for calendar 2023? Are there any new innovations or product pipelines that we should be focused on? Maybe said another way, how do you comp the comp following a very strong year for the North Face?
我的問題是在北面。隨著冬季銷售旺季的結束,您能否談談該品牌的渠道庫存?您看到 2023 年日曆的任何初始訂單嗎?是否有任何新的創新或產品線是我們應該關注的?或許換句話說,在 North Face 表現強勁的一年之後,你如何進行比較?
Matt H. Puckett - Executive VP & CFO
Matt H. Puckett - Executive VP & CFO
Let me take the first part of that and then maybe Benno will talk a little bit about kind of the innovation pipeline. Actually, inventories at retail with our wholesale partners are in a pretty good place for the North Face. We had a good selling season. We've had good performance in our own channels. Our DTC business grew 18% again in the quarter across the world. And we're seeing a similar kind of sellout results with our wholesale partners.
讓我來談談第一部分,然後也許 Benno 會談談創新渠道。實際上,我們的批發合作夥伴的零售庫存對 North Face 來說是一個非常好的地方。我們有一個很好的銷售季節。我們在自己的渠道中表現良好。我們的 DTC 業務在本季度在全球範圍內再次增長了 18%。我們在批發合作夥伴處看到了類似的售罄結果。
If anything, we would have probably benefited from having more inventory on the shelves. And Benno referenced the challenge that we faced with the higher cancellations in the North Face and Timberland as well, but certainly the North Face. So inventories are really in a pretty good position. Now that said, the wholesale partners are taking a really cautious approach in the near term as we look forward. We're not going to disclose anything about the order. But certainly, contemplated and kind of the underlying expectations for next year is a cautious environment -- a cautious wholesale environment in the U.S. and to some degree in Europe as well.
如果有的話,我們可能會從貨架上有更多庫存中受益。 Benno 提到了我們在 North Face 和 Timberland 中面臨的更高取消率的挑戰,但肯定是 North Face。所以庫存確實處於一個非常好的位置。話雖如此,正如我們期待的那樣,批發合作夥伴在短期內採取了非常謹慎的態度。我們不會透露有關訂單的任何信息。但可以肯定的是,對明年的預期和潛在預期是一個謹慎的環境——美國和歐洲在某種程度上也是謹慎的批發環境。
Benno O. Dorer - Interim President, CEO & Director
Benno O. Dorer - Interim President, CEO & Director
Yes. And then to your good question, Brooke, on what we're doing going forward. So dealing -- first of all, most importantly, I'm a product fanatic, and I think that's the backbone for every ongoing business success, and we feel good about the pipeline. What the North Face does particularly well is to establish platforms, platform innovation that we can drive over multiple years. And the summit here is one of those platforms that has done well for us for an extended period of time, and we'll continue to drive that because there's so much growth left.
是的。然後是你的好問題,布魯克,關於我們正在做的事情。所以交易——首先,最重要的是,我是一個產品狂熱者,我認為這是每一個持續的商業成功的支柱,我們對管道感覺良好。 The North Face 特別擅長的是建立平台,我們可以推動多年的平台創新。這裡的峰會是在很長一段時間內為我們做得很好的平台之一,我們將繼續推動它,因為還有很多增長。
Right now, we're relaunching the platform because there's a lot of extra awareness and trials we have. They're also loyalists that are waiting to buy more products within the platform. And we're giving a new apparel and also new footwear. So you'll see that on our website starting now.
現在,我們正在重新啟動該平台,因為我們有很多額外的意識和試驗。他們也是忠誠者,等待在平台內購買更多產品。我們正在提供新服裝和新鞋類。所以你會從現在開始在我們的網站上看到它。
The business also does a nice job sequencing. So obviously, the Nuptse jacket is very hot right now, but we have the next generation of jackets waiting in the wings. This winter, we started to see the Sierra jacket, and we expect to ramp up our efforts and growth on that jacket next season, hoping that, that can become the next generation of North Face jackets that will excite consumers. And we have successor to the Sierra already waiting in the wing. So this is a strategic and long-term approach to the innovation pipeline that is complemented by more tactical executions that drive excitement and the cause -- co-lab that we executed this last quarter was tremendously successful and is an example of how the brand is able to engage consumers with great products but also great marketing content.
該公司還很好地完成了排序工作。很明顯,Nuptse 夾克現在非常熱門,但我們有下一代夾克在等待著。今年冬天,我們開始看到 Sierra 夾克,我們預計下一季會在這件夾克上加大力度和增長,希望它能成為令消費者興奮的下一代 North Face 夾克。我們已經準備好了 Sierra 的繼任者。因此,這是創新渠道的戰略和長期方法,輔之以更多激發興奮和事業的戰術執行——我們在上個季度執行的合作實驗室取得了巨大成功,並且是該品牌的一個例子能夠以出色的產品和出色的營銷內容吸引消費者。
And in particular, in digital, the North Face is the business that has the strongest digital growth among all of our brands, and that's another area that Vans can learn from, and we're reapplying some of the North Face learning on Vans. Beyond that, what I would say also reflecting that perhaps knowing that hindsight is always 20/20. When we saw the particularly strong growth on Vans, one opportunity we perhaps missed was to invest into it. And what we're doing on the North Face now and what you can expect on the North Face in fiscal year '24, is an increase in our investment towards the consumer. And the money will go towards digital performance marketing, the money will go towards brand building and the money will go towards innovation. We fully realize that we cannot take growth momentum for granted, but that we have to keep earning it. And we will invest into that. And that, coupled with the strong execution and what we know to be strong future plans, give us really a lot of confidence on the North Face long term. We have a lot of momentum, but we'll keep investing in it.
特別是在數字方面,North Face 是我們所有品牌中數字增長最強勁的業務,這是 Vans 可以學習的另一個領域,我們正在將 North Face 的一些學習重新應用到 Vans 上。除此之外,我要說的也反映出也許知道後見之明總是 20/20。當我們看到 Vans 的增長特別強勁時,我們可能錯過了一個投資機會。我們現在在 North Face 所做的以及您在 24 財年對 North Face 的期望是增加我們對消費者的投資。這筆錢將用於數字績效營銷,將用於品牌建設,將用於創新。我們充分認識到,增長勢頭不能想當然,必須不斷爭取。我們將對此進行投資。而且,再加上強大的執行力和我們所知道的強大的未來計劃,讓我們對 North Face 的長期發展充滿信心。我們有很大的動力,但我們會繼續投資。
Operator
Operator
And our final question for today comes from Jay Sole with UBS.
我們今天的最後一個問題來自瑞銀的 Jay Sole。
Jay Daniel Sole - Executive Director and Equity Research Analyst of Softlines & Luxury
Jay Daniel Sole - Executive Director and Equity Research Analyst of Softlines & Luxury
Can you just talk about the business in China? Can you give us an idea of how the business in China has performed since the country started to reopen? And sort of what's embedded in your guidance for next year as you think about that market recovery?
能否簡單談談在中國的業務?您能否介紹一下自中國開始重新開放以來在中國的業務表現如何?當您考慮市場復甦時,您對明年的指導中嵌入了什麼?
Benno O. Dorer - Interim President, CEO & Director
Benno O. Dorer - Interim President, CEO & Director
Yes, perhaps detailed. Too early to talk about the specific guidance for next year. But what I can tell you is what we're seeing. The business has certainly seen sequential improvements in Q3, was about flat at minus 1% in constant currency. And that's been better than in previous quarter. And we've seen that momentum carry forward into January as the country continues to reopen.
是的,也許很詳細。現在談論明年的具體指導還為時過早。但我可以告訴你的是我們所看到的。該業務在第三季度肯定出現了連續改善,按固定匯率計算大致持平於負 1%。這比上一季度要好。隨著該國繼續重新開放,我們已經看到這種勢頭延續到 1 月份。
So we're certainly cautiously optimistic, especially for the back half of fiscal year '24. But it's too early to say when and how much the momentum picks up. There's certainly a possibility that we may see more momentum earlier and we're watching that closely. We should be in a much better place to predict that and give an update in May. But what we do know is, first, that there's a long-term investment case that's quite strong. We have a nascent, but growing outdoor and active markets, and we have leading brands that serve that. It's a great white space for many of our brands. It's a great space to apply our digital capabilities, as we all know, that market is very strongly driven by digital capabilities and that's, of course, an area of focus for us as a company.
因此,我們當然持謹慎樂觀態度,尤其是對於 24 財年的下半年。但現在說勢頭回升的時間和程度還為時過早。我們肯定有可能更早地看到更多勢頭,我們正在密切關注。我們應該能夠更好地預測這一點並在 5 月份提供更新。但我們所知道的是,首先,有一個非常強大的長期投資案例。我們有一個新興但不斷發展的戶外和活躍市場,我們擁有服務於此的領先品牌。對於我們的許多品牌來說,這是一個很好的空白。這是一個應用我們數字能力的巨大空間,眾所周知,這個市場是由數字能力強烈驅動的,當然,這是我們公司關注的一個領域。
And what you should also know is that we're willing to invest in that momentum. So as we continue to see, hopefully, a pickup in consumer offtake, we will invest in an increase in brand penetration, which in many cases is quite a bit lower than here in our home market. We have an opportunity to enter new categories and also enter with new brands and Supreme and Ultra are just 2 examples of brands that have a strong right to win in that market. And we will apply our marketing prowess to drive localized and engaging omnichannel experiences. And the teams did a nice job there that maybe hasn't shown in results just yet, given the state of the country.
你還應該知道的是,我們願意投資於這種勢頭。因此,隨著我們希望繼續看到消費者購買量的回升,我們將投資提高品牌滲透率,在許多情況下,品牌滲透率比我們本土市場低很多。我們有機會進入新類別,也有機會進入新品牌,而 Supreme 和 Ultra 只是在該市場中具有強大獲勝權的品牌的兩個例子。我們將運用我們的營銷實力來推動本地化和引人入勝的全渠道體驗。考慮到國家的狀況,這些團隊在那裡做得很好,可能還沒有在結果中顯示出來。
But we feel bullish about the long-term prospects, and we could be, knock on wood, at an inflection point that could lead to much stronger momentum, certainly, throughout the calendar year of 2023.
但我們對長期前景感到樂觀,敲木頭,我們可能會處於一個拐點,這可能會導致更強勁的勢頭,當然,在整個 2023 年。
Operator
Operator
And with that, I'll hand the floor back to Benno Dorer for closing remarks.
說到這裡,我將把發言權交還給 Benno Dorer,讓他發表閉幕詞。
Benno O. Dorer - Interim President, CEO & Director
Benno O. Dorer - Interim President, CEO & Director
Yes. Thank you all for joining today. As you hopefully will have heard from us today our commitment to our consumers, our people, our shareholders and also VF's purpose in service of the greater good is what's going to continue to guide all of our actions. And the last 2 months in the CEO role for me have reinforced my excitement in the company's potential. And add to that, that we have a clear view of the areas which are critical to help us realize it. And those are world-class leadership, the company's executive leadership team and its broader organization is stable, talented and committed to leading this great company, improved execution near term.
是的。感謝大家今天的加入。正如您希望今天聽到的那樣,我們對我們的消費者、我們的員工、我們的股東的承諾以及 VF 為更大利益服務的宗旨將繼續指導我們的所有行動。在過去的 2 個月裡,我擔任 CEO 的角色讓我對公司的潛力更加興奮。除此之外,我們對幫助我們實現它的關鍵領域有清晰的認識。這些都是世界一流的領導層,公司的執行領導團隊及其更廣泛的組織穩定、有才華並致力於領導這家偉大的公司,提高近期的執行力。
Clearly, we have a clear idea of what must be done to improve performance, and we're starting to implement aggressive actions to do so. And that starts with a much greater focus on the consumer to realize our brand's full potential, a future with sharpened strategies, the right investments, exciting product innovation and excellent marketplace execution. And importantly, financial strength and predictability. The Board and I are committed to strengthening our financial position and also to returning to consistent value creation, emphasizing a unique portfolio of core brands.
顯然,我們清楚地知道必須採取哪些措施來提高性能,並且我們開始採取積極的行動來實現這一目標。而這始於更加關註消費者以實現我們品牌的全部潛力,一個具有敏銳戰略、正確投資、令人興奮的產品創新和出色市場執行力的未來。重要的是,財務實力和可預測性。董事會和我致力於加強我們的財務狀況,並恢復持續的價值創造,強調獨特的核心品牌組合。
So in a nutshell, we're confident we're taking the right steps to improve the strength and consistency of VF's performance to deliver strong shareholder returns over the medium and long term and we look forward to updating you on our progress in May. Thank you all, and have a good rest of the week.
因此,簡而言之,我們相信我們正在採取正確的步驟來提高 VF 業績的實力和一致性,以在中長期內為股東帶來強勁的回報,我們期待在 5 月份向您通報我們的進展情況。謝謝大家,祝您度過愉快的一周。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. This concludes today's conference. All parties may disconnect. Have a great evening.
謝謝。今天的會議到此結束。各方可能會斷開連接。祝你有個愉快的夜晚。