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Operator
Operator
Greetings, and welcome to the V.F. Corporation Fourth Quarter Fiscal 2019 Conference Call.
問候,歡迎來到 V.F.公司 2019 財年第四季度電話會議。
(Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.
(操作員說明)作為提醒,本次會議正在錄製中。
It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Joe Alkire, Vice President, Investor Relations.
現在我很高興向您介紹您的主持人,投資者關係副總裁喬·阿爾基爾(Joe Alkire)。
Please go ahead, sir.
請繼續,先生。
Joe Alkire - VP of Corporate Development, Treasury & IR
Joe Alkire - VP of Corporate Development, Treasury & IR
Good morning, and welcome to V.F. Corporation's Fourth Quarter Fiscal 2019 Earnings Call.
早上好,歡迎來到 V.F.公司 2019 財年第四季度財報電話會議。
Participants on today's call will make forward-looking statements.
今天電話會議的參與者將做出前瞻性陳述。
These statements are based on current expectations and are subject to uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially.
這些陳述基於當前的預期,並受到可能導致實際結果存在重大差異的不確定性的影響。
These uncertainties are detailed in documents filed regularly with the SEC.
這些不確定性在定期提交給 SEC 的文件中有詳細說明。
Unless otherwise noted, amounts referred to on today's call will be on an adjusted constant dollar basis, excluding Kontoor Brands, which we defined in the press release that was issued this morning.
除非另有說明,否則今天電話會議中提及的金額將以調整後的固定美元為基礎,不包括我們在今天上午發布的新聞稿中定義的 Kontoor Brands。
In the context of VF's review of its fiscal 2019 results, excluding Kontoor Brands amounts, exclude the results of VF's Jeans reportable segment, Wrangler RIGGS brand and VF Outlet business.
在 VF 審查其 2019 財年業績的背景下,不包括 Kontoor Brands 金額,不包括 VF 的牛仔褲可報告部門、Wrangler RIGGS 品牌和 VF Outlet 業務的業績。
The results are not indicative of the results of Kontoor Brands as a standalone entity and are not representative of VF's discontinued operations view of consolidated results after the separation of Kontoor Brands is complete.
這些結果並不代表 Kontoor Brands 作為一個獨立實體的結果,也不代表 VF 在 Kontoor Brands 分離完成後對合併結果的終止經營觀點。
In addition, the release provides adjusted fiscal 2020 outlook information reflecting management's best estimates of the impact the separation of Kontoor Brands may have on VF's fiscal 2019 financial information and fiscal 2020 outlook on a discontinued operations basis, along with other adjustments.
此外,該新聞稿還提供了調整後的 2020 財年展望信息,反映了管理層對 Kontoor Brands 的分離可能對 VF 的 2019 財年財務信息和終止運營基礎上的 2020 財年展望產生的影響的最佳估計,以及其他調整。
VF's analysis of the separation of Kontoor Brands has not been completed and is subject to change.
VF 對 Kontoor Brands 分離的分析尚未完成,可能會發生變化。
We use adjusted constant dollar amounts, excluding Kontoor Brands, as lead numbers in our discussion because we believe they more accurately represent the true operational performance and underlying results of our business post the separation of Kontoor Brands.
我們在討論中使用調整後的固定美元金額(不包括 Kontoor Brands)作為領先數字,因為我們相信它們更準確地代表了 Kontoor Brands 分離後我們業務的真實運營績效和基本結果。
You may also hear us refer to reported amounts, which are in accordance with U.S. GAAP.
您可能還會聽到我們提到報告的金額,這些金額符合美國公認會計原則。
Reconciliations of GAAP measures to adjusted amounts can be found in the supplemental financial tables included in the press release, which identify and quantify all excluded items and provide management's view of why this information is useful to investors.
GAAP 措施與調整後金額的對賬可以在新聞稿中包含的補充財務表格中找到,該表格確定並量化了所有排除項目,並提供管理層對這些信息為何對投資者有用的看法。
In connection with the distribution date of May 22, 2019, VF will file its current report on Form 8-K no later than May 29, 2019, which will include supplemental financial information on VF, illustrating Kontoor Brands on a discontinued operations basis under U.S. GAAP for certain historical periods.
就 2019 年 5 月 22 日的分發日期而言,VF 將不遲於 2019 年 5 月 29 日提交其當前的 8-K 表格報告,其中將包括關於 VF 的補充財務信息,說明 Kontoor Brands 在美國終止運營的基礎上。某些歷史時期的公認會計原則。
During the first quarter of fiscal 2019, the company completed the sale of its Nautica brand business.
在 2019 財年第一季度,該公司完成了其 Nautica 品牌業務的出售。
During the first quarter of fiscal 2018, the company completed the sale of its Licensed Sports Group, or LSG business.
在 2018 財年第一季度,該公司完成了其許可體育集團或 LSG 業務的出售。
In conjunction with the LSG divestiture, VF executed its plan to exit the licensing business and completed the sale of the assets of the JanSport brand collegiate business in the fourth quarter of 2017.
在剝離 LSG 的同時,VF 執行了退出許可業務的計劃,並於 2017 年第四季度完成了 JanSport 品牌大學業務資產的出售。
Accordingly, the company has included the operating results of these businesses in discontinued operations through their respective dates of sale.
因此,該公司已將這些業務的經營業績包括在其各自銷售日期的已終止業務中。
Unless otherwise noted, results presented on today's call are based on continuing operations.
除非另有說明,否則今天電話會議上的結果均基於持續運營。
Joining me on today's call will be VF's Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer, Steve Rendle; and Chief Financial Officer, Scott Roe.
與我一起參加今天電話會議的還有 VF 的董事長、總裁兼首席執行官 Steve Rendle;和首席財務官 Scott Roe。
Following our prepared remarks, we'll open the call for questions.
在我們準備好的評論之後,我們將打開提問的電話。
Steve?
史蒂夫?
Steven E. Rendle - Executive Chairman, President & CEO
Steven E. Rendle - Executive Chairman, President & CEO
Thank you, Joe, and good morning, everyone.
謝謝你,喬,大家早上好。
Fiscal 2019 represented one of the most transformative periods in VF's 120-year history, culminating with the tax-free spin-off of Kontoor Brands.
2019 財年是 VF 120 年曆史上最具變革性的時期之一,最終以免稅分拆 Kontoor Brands 為高潮。
The actions we took last year are just further milestones along the path we laid out in Boston 2 years ago.
我們去年採取的行動只是我們兩年前在波士頓規劃的道路上的進一步里程碑。
Since that time, we've boldly reshaped our portfolio, placed significant investments in key capabilities, accelerated growth in our largest brands, delivered sound fundamentals with gross margin expansion and SG&A leverage and returned $3 billion to shareholders, and all through a purpose-driven lens.
從那時起,我們大膽地重塑了我們的投資組合,對關鍵能力進行了大量投資,加快了我們最大品牌的增長,通過毛利率擴張和 SG&A 槓桿提供了良好的基本面,並向股東返還了 30 億美元,所有這一切都是通過目標驅動的鏡片。
It's been a busy 2 years.
忙碌了2年。
We made significant strides this year, and we're steadfast to deliver on our commitment to be a purpose-led, performance-driven and value-creating enterprise.
今年我們取得了長足的進步,我們堅定不移地兌現我們的承諾,成為一家以目標為導向、以績效為導向和創造價值的企業。
And even as our teams have managed an intense workload and a tremendous amount of change, I'm proud to report that we delivered strong financial results and another year of top quartile returns to shareholders.
即使我們的團隊已經處理了繁重的工作量和巨大的變化,我很自豪地報告說,我們提供了強勁的財務業績和又一年為股東帶來了最高四分之一的回報。
Excluding Kontoor Brands, highlights from our fiscal 2019 results include revenue growth of 18% or 11% on an organic basis; growth driven by our 2 largest brands, Vans and The North Face, which grew 26% and 10%, respectively; and on an organic basis, international increased 10% led by 25% growth in China and 8% growth in EMEA; direct-to-consumer increased 13% with 26% growth in digital; and our Work business increased 5% with bounced broad-based growth.
不包括 Kontoor Brands,我們 2019 財年業績的亮點包括收入有機增長 18% 或 11%;由我們的兩個最大品牌 Vans 和 The North Face 推動,分別增長 26% 和 10%;在有機基礎上,國際增長 10%,其中中國增長 25%,歐洲、中東和非洲增長 8%;直接面向消費者增長 13%,數字增長 26%;我們的工作業務增長了 5%,實現了廣泛的反彈。
Our fundamentals remained strong as gross margin, a key driver of our value-creation model, expanded 90 basis points organically, providing us the fuel to continue to invest in the capabilities required to sustain our growth momentum.
我們的基本面保持強勁,因為作為我們價值創造模式的關鍵驅動因素的毛利率有機地擴大了 90 個基點,為我們繼續投資於維持增長勢頭所需的能力提供了動力。
Including Kontoor Brands, EPS increased 22% to $3.78, including $65 million of incremental investment to drive our strategy and accelerate growth.
包括 Kontoor Brands,每股收益增長 22% 至 3.78 美元,其中包括 6500 萬美元的增量投資,以推動我們的戰略和加速增長。
And notably, EPS growth, excluding Kontoor Brands, was even stronger.
值得注意的是,不包括 Kontoor Brands 的每股收益增長更為強勁。
And finally, VF delivered yet another year of top quartile returns to shareholders with 20% TSR in fiscal 2019.
最後,VF 在 2019 財年以 20% 的 TSR 為股東帶來了又一年的最高四分之一回報。
Since launching our 2021 strategy in Boston just over 2 years ago, VF has delivered an annualized TSR of 29% over this period with a strong balance of both earnings growth and cash returns.
自兩年多前在波士頓推出我們的 2021 戰略以來,VF 在此期間實現了 29% 的年化股東總回報率,盈利增長和現金回報保持強勁平衡。
Let me take a moment to address current market conditions as the geopolitical environment has become more uncertain in recent weeks.
讓我花點時間談談當前的市場狀況,因為最近幾週地緣政治環境變得更加不確定。
While current events have the potential to disrupt our business and our consumers around the globe, to date, the impact to our business has been minimal.
雖然時事有可能擾亂我們的業務和全球消費者,但迄今為止,對我們業務的影響微乎其微。
While we're most -- more closely monitoring conditions in certain markets, such as China and the U.K., for our businesses, the overall consumer backdrop remains quite solid.
雖然我們最密切地監控某些市場(例如中國和英國)的業務狀況,但整體消費者背景仍然相當穩固。
As it relates to trade, the impact of tariffs to date has been de minimis.
由於它與貿易有關,迄今為止關稅的影響微乎其微。
We continue to monitor this situation closely and are developing contingency plans for potential outcomes.
我們將繼續密切關注這種情況,並正在為可能的結果制定應急計劃。
For context, post our spin-off of Kontoor Brands, our total cost of goods sold sourced directly from China to the U.S. is 7%, and we will continue to implement mitigating actions to dampen the financial impact of incremental tariffs.
就上下文而言,在我們分拆 Kontoor Brands 之後,我們直接從中國採購到美國的商品總成本為 7%,我們將繼續採取緩解措施以抑制增加關稅的財務影響。
At the beginning of fiscal 2019, I shared 3 key areas where we would focus our attention and investments throughout the year to enable our strategy and fuel growth.
在 2019 財年初,我分享了 3 個關鍵領域,我們將在全年重點關注和投資,以實現我們的戰略並推動增長。
I'm pleased to report that we made substantial progress on each of these areas.
我很高興地報告,我們在這些領域都取得了實質性進展。
First, we committed to reshaping and optimizing our portfolio, while protecting and enabling the explosive growth in Vans, shepherding the positive momentum of The North Face and focusing on reenergizing growth in Timberland North America.
首先,我們致力於重塑和優化我們的產品組合,同時保護和支持 Vans 的爆炸式增長,引領 The North Face 的積極勢頭,並專注於重振 Timberland North America 的增長。
As a result, in August, we announced the separation of our Jeans business, which will become an independent publicly traded company beginning tomorrow morning.
因此,我們在 8 月宣布分離牛仔褲業務,從明天早上開始,該業務將成為一家獨立的上市公司。
In addition to the spin, we took other notable actions to optimize our brand portfolio.
除了旋轉之外,我們還採取了其他值得注意的行動來優化我們的品牌組合。
We continue integrating Williamson-Dickie into VF as well as the Icebreaker and Altra brands, and we completed the sale of the Nautica, Reef and Van Moer businesses.
我們繼續將 Williamson-Dickie 整合到 VF 以及 Icebreaker 和 Altra 品牌中,並完成了 Nautica、Reef 和 Van Moer 業務的出售。
We enabled the explosive growth of Vans with revenue growth -- with revenue growing 26% for the year on top of 27% in fiscal 2018, adding $1.4 billion of incremental growth over a 2-year period.
我們通過收入增長實現了 Vans 的爆炸式增長——在 2018 財年的 27% 的基礎上,今年的收入增長了 26%,在 2 年內增加了 14 億美元的增量增長。
Vans is tracking well ahead of the $5 billion target we laid out last September.
Vans 遠超我們去年 9 月制定的 50 億美元目標。
The North Face brand made significant progress in reclaiming its rightful leadership position as one of the world's largest, most influential outdoor brands and delivered 10% growth with strength across regions and channels, most importantly, with high single-digit growth in North America.
North Face 品牌在恢復其作為世界上最大、最有影響力的戶外品牌之一的正當領導地位方面取得了重大進展,並憑藉跨地區和渠道的實力實現了 10% 的增長,最重要的是,在北美實現了高個位數增長。
And importantly, the Timberland brand in North America increased 5% driven by double-digit growth from non-Classics footwear, mid-single-digit growth in apparel and stabilization in our Classics footwear business, demonstrating the diversification strategy is working.
重要的是,在非經典鞋類的兩位數增長、服裝的中個位數增長以及我們的經典鞋類業務穩定的推動下,北美的 Timberland 品牌增長了 5%,這表明多元化戰略正在發揮作用。
Second, we committed to continue our customer-centric transformation work and to distort resources against our D2C platform and our digital transformation.
其次,我們致力於繼續以客戶為中心的轉型工作,並針對我們的 D2C 平台和我們的數字化轉型扭曲資源。
As a result, on an organic basis, D2C grew by 13%, including 13% comps.
結果,在有機基礎上,D2C 增長了 13%,其中包括 13% 的補償。
Digital increased 26% with 50% growth from Vans and more than 20% growth from both The North Face and Timberland.
Digital 增長 26%,其中 Vans 增長 50%,The North Face 和 Timberland 增長超過 20%。
And we directed the majority of the $65 million incremental investment at capabilities that enable our consumer-centric strategy.
我們將 6500 萬美元的增量投資中的大部分用於支持我們以消費者為中心的戰略的能力。
And finally, we committed to increase our metabolic rate with the goal of operating with greater speed and agility.
最後,我們致力於提高我們的新陳代謝率,目標是提高速度和敏捷性。
We continue to drive a culture of lean operational excellence to unlock investment capacity and fund our strategic growth initiatives.
我們繼續推動精益運營文化,以釋放投資能力並為我們的戰略增長計劃提供資金。
Our management team has remained sharply focused on delivering business results, while also leading our company through a purpose-led transformation journey.
我們的管理團隊一直非常專注於交付業務成果,同時也帶領我們的公司完成以目標為導向的轉型之旅。
The dedication and perseverance that our associates have brought to that task are, in a word, remarkable.
總之,我們的員工為這項任務帶來的奉獻精神和毅力是非凡的。
Equally important as the business results we achieved is how we did it.
與我們取得的業務成果同樣重要的是我們是如何做到的。
VF associates around the world continue to lead by example and demonstrate our relentless focus on operating with the highest ethical standards.
世界各地的 VF 員工繼續以身作則,展示我們對以最高道德標準運營的不懈關注。
During the quarter, we received third-party recognitions, including one of the World's Most Ethical Companies recognized by Ethisphere Institute due to our continued commitment to leading the industry through ethical business standards and practices.
在本季度,我們獲得了第三方的認可,其中包括被 Ethisphere Institute 認可的世界上最具道德的公司之一,這是因為我們繼續致力於通過道德商業標準和實踐來引領行業。
We were also recognized by Fortune magazine as one of the World’s Most Admired Companies for the 24th consecutive year.
我們還連續 24 年被《財富》雜誌評為全球最受尊敬的公司之一。
As we enter fiscal 2020, our priorities remain consistent as we continue to advance our most promising areas of opportunity.
隨著我們進入 2020 財年,我們的優先事項保持一致,因為我們將繼續推進我們最有希望的機會領域。
Our top priorities for the coming year include maximizing value creation and further optimizing our portfolio, continuing to accelerate our consumer-centric transformation and growth work with a particular focus on collaboration between our business' product merchandising, design and development teams in the supply chain, while increasing speed to market; and finally, creating and enabling a purpose-led performance culture across through the activation of our employee value proposition and by defining clear cultural behaviors that are required to deliver on our purpose and business strategy.
我們來年的首要任務包括最大限度地創造價值並進一步優化我們的產品組合,繼續加速我們以消費者為中心的轉型和增長工作,特別關注供應鏈中我們業務的產品營銷、設計和開發團隊之間的協作,同時加快上市速度;最後,通過激活我們的員工價值主張並定義實現我們的目標和業務戰略所需的明確文化行為,創建和實現以目標為導向的績效文化。
At the end of April, our Board of Directors approved the separation of VF's Jeanswear organization or Kontoor Brands.
4 月底,我們的董事會批准了 VF 的 Jeanswear 組織或 Kontoor Brands 的分離。
Tomorrow, we expect Kontoor Brands will begin trading on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol KTB, following distribution after the market closes today.
明天,我們預計 Kontoor Brands 將在今天收市後在紐約證券交易所開始交易,代碼為 KTB。
I would like to thank everyone in our Jeans business for their service to VF and wish them well as they embark on their new journey as Kontoor Brands.
我要感謝我們牛仔褲業務的每個人為 VF 提供的服務,並祝愿他們在 Kontoor Brands 的新旅程中一切順利。
The histories of V.F. Corporation and Kontoor Brands are woven together in the rich denim history of North Carolina.
V.F.的歷史Corporation 和 Kontoor Brands 在北卡羅來納州豐富的牛仔布歷史中交織在一起。
We are grateful for our time together and confident that Kontoor has a bright future ahead as an independent company.
我們很感激我們一起度過的時光,並相信 Kontoor 作為一家獨立公司擁有光明的未來。
Now as we continue our journey as a more agile and focused VF, I could not be more proud of all that we've accomplished over the past year, and I'm very excited about what's to come with our next chapter.
現在,隨著我們作為一個更加敏捷和專注的 VF 繼續我們的旅程,我為我們在過去一年中取得的所有成就感到無比自豪,我對我們下一章即將到來的事情感到非常興奮。
Fiscal 2020 will undoubtedly be another solid year for our enterprise and one that sets a strong and positive tone for the years ahead.
對於我們的企業來說,2020 財年無疑將是又一個堅實的一年,並為未來幾年奠定了強大而積極的基調。
And with that, I'll turn it over to Scott.
有了這個,我會把它交給斯科特。
Scott A. Roe - VP & CFO
Scott A. Roe - VP & CFO
Thanks, Steve, and good morning to everyone.
謝謝,史蒂夫,大家早上好。
Before diving into our 2019 financial results and 2020 outlook, I'd like to take a moment and reflect on a few of the major milestones we achieved over the past year.
在深入探討我們的 2019 年財務業績和 2020 年展望之前,我想花點時間回顧一下我們在過去一年中取得的一些主要里程碑。
First, we have made significant progress integrating Williamson-Dickie, our largest acquisition since Timberland.
首先,我們在整合 Williamson-Dickie 方面取得了重大進展,這是自 Timberland 以來我們最大的收購。
We are ahead of our acquisition plan from a growth, profit and return on capital perspective and even more excited about the growth opportunities that lie ahead for what is now our fourth largest brand post the Kontoor spin.
從增長、利潤和資本回報的角度來看,我們領先於我們的收購計劃,並且對我們現在是 Kontoor 旋轉後的第四大品牌所面臨的增長機會感到更加興奮。
Second, we changed our fiscal year-end and realigned our reportable segments to enhance visibility, reduce volatility and provide greater transparency into the growth and profitability drivers of our portfolio.
其次,我們改變了我們的財政年度結束並重新調整了我們的報告部門,以提高可見性、減少波動性並為我們投資組合的增長和盈利驅動因素提供更大的透明度。
Third, we redesigned and simplified our organization in the North American footprint with the goal of operating with greater agility and speed, accelerating innovation and unlocking greater collaboration across brands and functions.
第三,我們重新設計並簡化了我們在北美地區的組織,目標是以更高的敏捷性和速度運營,加速創新並開啟跨品牌和職能的更大協作。
And finally, we continue to reshape our portfolio.
最後,我們繼續重塑我們的投資組合。
Over the past 18 months, we have acquired Icebreaker and Altra, divested Nautica, Reef and Van Moer and have effectively completed the spin of Kontoor Brands estimated to take place tomorrow.
在過去的 18 個月中,我們收購了 Icebreaker 和 Altra,剝離了 Nautica、Reef 和 Van Moer,並有效地完成了預計將於明天進行的 Kontoor Brands 的拆分。
Fiscal 2019 was indeed one of the most transformational years in VF's history.
2019 財年確實是 VF 歷史上最具變革性的年份之一。
In fact, since the launch of our 2021 plan 2 years ago, we bought and sold 10 businesses with combined annual revenue of more than $5 billion.
事實上,自 2 年前推出 2021 年計劃以來,我們買賣了 10 家企業,年收入合計超過 50 億美元。
I'm incredibly proud of our team and the progress we've made reshaping our portfolio.
我為我們的團隊以及我們在重塑投資組合方面取得的進展感到無比自豪。
And underneath all these exciting changes, our management team remained sharply focused on delivering strong results and value creation through a purpose lens.
在所有這些激動人心的變化背後,我們的管理團隊仍然非常專注於通過目標鏡頭提供強大的成果和價值創造。
It's not only about making profits.
這不僅僅是為了賺取利潤。
It's how we make them that matters.
重要的是我們如何製作它們。
Our growth has accelerated, and the fundamentals of our business are strong.
我們的增長速度加快,業務基礎強勁。
I'm very pleased with the quality and diversity of our growth and momentum we carry into fiscal 2020.
我對我們進入 2020 財年的增長和勢頭的質量和多樣性感到非常滿意。
The investments we continue to make and the capabilities needed to sustain our growth are transitioning into strong tangible results, and we're executing exceptionally well and tracking ahead of our 2021 commitments.
我們繼續進行的投資和維持增長所需的能力正在轉變為強大的有形成果,我們執行得非常好,並提前實現了 2021 年的承諾。
Altogether, VF, post Kontoor, is a stronger version of itself, more focused and better positioned to build on our long track record of delivering top quartile returns to our shareholders.
總而言之,VF,post Kontoor,是一個更強大的版本,更專注和更好地建立在我們為股東提供最高四分之一回報的長期記錄的基礎上。
Turning to our fourth quarter and full year fiscal 2019 results.
談到我們的 2019 財年第四季度和全年業績。
Remember that our reported numbers for fiscal 2019 include Kontoor Brands.
請記住,我們報告的 2019 財年數字包括 Kontoor Brands。
However, I'll focus the majority of my commentary today on the performance of the RemainCo portfolio.
但是,我今天的大部分評論將集中在 RemainCo 投資組合的表現上。
So let's begin with the fourth quarter.
所以讓我們從第四季度開始。
Revenue increased 12% on an organic basis as our core growth engines continue to perform well.
由於我們的核心增長引擎繼續表現良好,收入有機增長了 12%。
Our Big 3 brands grew 13% led by 18% growth at Vans and 11% growth at The North Face.
我們的三大品牌增長了 13%,其中 Vans 增長了 18%,The North Face 增長了 11%。
Direct-to-consumer increased 10%, and digital remained strong with more than 20% growth.
直接面向消費者的業務增長了 10%,數字業務保持強勁增長,增長超過 20%。
By geography, international increased 12% led by 25% growth in China.
按地域劃分,國際增長 12%,中國增長 25%。
Our Europe business increased 10%, despite a somewhat more challenging backdrop across the region.
儘管整個地區的背景更具挑戰性,我們的歐洲業務仍增長了 10%。
This reflects the diversity of growth by brand, geography and channel.
這反映了品牌、地域和渠道增長的多樣性。
And our Americas non-U.
而我們的美洲非美國。
S. business also increased more than 20%.
S.業務也增長了20%以上。
Work grew 6% with broad-based growth across the portfolio, including strong performance from our 2 largest brands, Dickies and Timberland PRO.
工作量增長了 6%,整個產品組合都實現了廣泛的增長,其中包括我們的兩個最大品牌 Dickies 和 Timberland PRO 的強勁表現。
Total VF gross margin expanded 30 basis points to 51.1%.
VF 總毛利率擴大 30 個基點至 51.1%。
Mix in the quarter was negative 20 basis points due mainly to timing of distressed sales.
本季度的組合為負 20 個基點,主要是由於不良銷售的時機。
However, our mix benefit in the second half of 2019 was in line with our full year benefit of 60 basis points.
然而,我們在 2019 年下半年的混合收益與我們 60 個基點的全年收益一致。
Excluding Kontoor Brands, gross margin increased 90 basis points on an organic basis as gross margin expansion continues to be a significant value driver for us, providing the flexibility and opportunity to accelerate investment and the capabilities needed to sustain long-term growth.
不包括 Kontoor Brands,毛利率有機增長 90 個基點,因為毛利率擴張仍然是我們的重要價值驅動因素,提供了加速投資的靈活性和機會以及維持長期增長所需的能力。
Operating profit was about flat, including approximately $65 million of incremental investments.
營業利潤基本持平,包括大約 6500 萬美元的增量投資。
Second-half operating profit increased nearly 30%, and operating margin increased almost 200 basis points driven by both gross margin expansion and SG&A leverage.
下半年營業利潤增長近 30%,在毛利率擴張和 SG&A 槓桿的推動下,營業利潤率增長近 200 個基點。
And that's our model, gross margin expansion, funding investments and capabilities to drive growth, resulting in operating margin expansion.
這就是我們的模式、毛利率擴張、資金投資和推動增長的能力,從而導致營業利潤率擴張。
Moving now to our full year fiscal 2019.
現在進入我們的 2019 財年全年。
Revenue increased 11% on an organic basis with double-digit growth in both the U.S. and internationally and across both our D2C and wholesale channels.
收入有機增長了 11%,在美國和國際以及我們的 D2C 和批發渠道均實現了兩位數的增長。
Our digital wholesale business, a key growth driver and strategic focus for our long-term strategy, increased at a mid-teen rate.
我們的數字批發業務是我們長期戰略的關鍵增長動力和戰略重點,以十幾歲的速度增長。
Our Big 3 brands grew at a combined rate of 14% led by 26% growth at Vans and 10% growth at The North Face.
我們的三大品牌以 14% 的總增長率增長,其中 Vans 增長 26%,The North Face 增長 10%。
D2C increased 13%, including a 13% total comp and a 9% comp in our brick-and-mortar stores.
D2C 增長了 13%,其中包括 13% 的總收入和 9% 的實體店收入。
Digital increased 26%, slightly above our long-term target, a reflection of our strategic focus and investment against our vision to become a more digitally enabled enterprise.
數字化增長了 26%,略高於我們的長期目標,這反映了我們的戰略重點和投資與我們成為數字化企業的願景背道而馳。
By geography, international increased 10% led by 25% growth in China.
按地域劃分,國際增長 10%,中國增長 25%。
Our Europe business increased 8% with broad-based growth across brands, geographies and channels.
我們的歐洲業務增長了 8%,品牌、地域和渠道的廣泛增長。
And our Americas non-U.
而我們的美洲非美國。
S. region increased 16%.
南區增長了 16%。
The performance of our Work portfolio was solid with 5% growth, including diversified growth across all brands in the portfolio as sector fundamentals remained resilient.
我們的工作組合表現穩健,增長 5%,包括組合中所有品牌的多元化增長,因為行業基本面保持彈性。
Gross margin expanded by 40 bps, excluding Kontoor Brands or 90 basis points on an organic basis.
毛利率增長了 40 個基點,不包括 Kontoor Brands 或有機基礎上的 90 個基點。
Operating margin -- operating profit increased more than 30%, and our operating margin expanded by 160 basis points to 13.7%.
營業利潤率——營業利潤增長超過 30%,我們的營業利潤率擴大了 160 個基點,達到 13.7%。
In addition to our gross margin expansion, strong top line growth drove significant leverage of SG&A, despite investments in support of our long-term strategy.
除了我們的毛利率擴張外,強勁的收入增長推動了 SG&A 的顯著槓桿作用,儘管投資支持我們的長期戰略。
Including Kontoor Brands, EPS for fiscal 2019 was $3.78, reflecting 18% growth on an organic basis and including $65 million of incremental investments or $0.13 per share.
包括 Kontoor Brands 在內,2019 財年每股收益為 3.78 美元,有機增長 18%,其中包括 6500 萬美元的增量投資或每股 0.13 美元。
EPS for fiscal 2019 also includes a 9% decline in the operating profit of Kontoor Brands.
2019 財年的每股收益還包括 Kontoor Brands 的營業利潤下降 9%。
So turning to the balance sheet.
所以轉向資產負債表。
Inventory remains tightly controlled, increasing just 4% over the prior year.
庫存仍然受到嚴格控制,僅比上年增長 4%。
We generated adjusted cash flow from ops of nearly $1.8 billion, in line with expectations, and our return on capital was over 22%.
我們從運營中產生了近 18 億美元的調整後現金流,符合預期,我們的資本回報率超過 22%。
We ended fiscal 2019 with a leverage ratio of about 2x, so our balance sheet leverage has essentially returned to pre-acquisition levels.
我們在 2019 財年結束時的槓桿率約為 2 倍,因此我們的資產負債表槓桿率已基本恢復到收購前的水平。
We also returned approximately $900 million to shareholders through share repos and dividends.
我們還通過股票回購和股息向股東返還了大約 9 億美元。
Our diversified business model is delivering exceptional results.
我們多元化的商業模式正在帶來非凡的成果。
And as we enter 2020 with strong momentum across multiple brands, geographies and channels and with a more focused portfolio, we are confident in our ability to deliver yet another year of top quartile value creation.
隨著我們進入 2020 年,在多個品牌、地區和渠道中擁有強勁勢頭,並擁有更加專注的產品組合,我們有信心再創造一年創造最高四分之一的價值。
Let's now turn to fiscal 2020 outlook.
現在讓我們轉向 2020 財年展望。
As a reminder, our outlook excludes Kontoor Brands and includes the following: we expect revenue to be in the range of $11.7 billion to $11.8 billion, representing 5% to 6% growth compared to the prior year and approximately 7% to 8% growth on an organic constant dollar basis.
提醒一下,我們的展望不包括 Kontoor Brands,包括以下內容:我們預計收入將在 117 億美元至 118 億美元之間,與去年相比增長 5% 至 6%,2018 年增長約 7% 至 8%。有機不變的美元基礎。
From a shaping standpoint, FX and the divestitures of Reef and Van Moer will have a bigger impact on both revenue and earnings growth in our first half.
從塑造的角度來看,外匯以及 Reef 和 Van Moer 的剝離將對我們上半年的收入和盈利增長產生更大的影響。
As previewed on our last call, on a constant dollar basis, we expect Vans to grow at a low double-digit rate, surpassing $4 billion in 2020 and tracking well ahead of its plan to reach $5 billion by 2023.
正如我們上次電話會議所預測的那樣,以固定美元計算,我們預計 Vans 將以兩位數的低速度增長,到 2020 年超過 40 億美元,並遠遠超過其到 2023 年達到 50 億美元的計劃。
Note that our outlook for Vans includes the negative impact from business model changes in South America.
請注意,我們對 Vans 的展望包括南美商業模式變化的負面影響。
We expect momentum in The North Face to continue into 2020 and still anticipate high single-digit growth with balanced growth in both the first and second halves.
我們預計 The North Face 的勢頭將持續到 2020 年,並且仍預計上半年和下半年的高個位數增長和均衡增長。
We expect low single-digit growth from Timberland, including the negative impact from business model changes in South America and mid-single-digit growth from Dickies in 2020.
我們預計 Timberland 的低個位數增長,包括南美商業模式變化的負面影響以及 Dickies 2020 年的中個位數增長。
We expect high single-digit growth from our international business, highlighted by mid-teen growth in Asia and 5% to 7% growth in Europe.
我們預計我們的國際業務將實現高個位數增長,其中亞洲的中期增長和歐洲 5% 至 7% 的增長尤為突出。
We anticipate high single-digit growth from our non-U.
我們預計非美國的高個位數增長。
S. Americas business, adjusted for the impact of planned business model changes in South America.
南美洲業務,根據南美洲計劃商業模式變化的影響進行調整。
As previously announced, we're in the process of converting our direct business in the region to a license or distributor model.
正如之前宣布的那樣,我們正在將我們在該地區的直接業務轉變為許可或分銷模式。
While these markets continue to represent growth opportunities for our brands over the long term, we're narrowing the focus of our management teams and, given the volatility in the region, taking the opportunity to simplify and derisk our operating model in CASA.
雖然這些市場在長期內繼續為我們的品牌帶來增長機會,但我們正在縮小管理團隊的關注範圍,並鑑於該地區的波動性,藉此機會簡化並降低我們在 CASA 的運營模式。
Moving on to our channel outlook.
繼續我們的渠道展望。
We expect low double-digit growth in D2C led by approximately 25% growth in digital and mid-single-digit growth in wholesale.
我們預計 D2C 將出現兩位數的低增長,其中數字增長約為 25%,批發業務的增長將達到中個位數。
Gross margin is expected to reach about 54%, representing 60 basis points of expansion driven primarily by our ongoing mix shift towards higher-margin businesses.
毛利率預計將達到約 54%,代表 60 個基點的擴張,主要是由於我們持續向高利潤率業務轉變。
We anticipate operating margin expansion of roughly 60 basis points to 13.7%, despite incremental growth investments as well as dissynergies from the Kontoor separation.
我們預計營業利潤率將增長約 60 個基點至 13.7%,儘管增加了增長投資以及 Kontoor 分離帶來的不協同效應。
EPS is expected to be $3.30 to $3.35, representing 15% to 17% growth compared to the prior year or approximately 17% to 19% on an organic constant dollar basis.
每股收益預計為 3.30 美元至 3.35 美元,與去年相比增長 15% 至 17%,或按有機不變美元計算增長約 17% 至 19%。
Our 2020 outlook assumes share repos offset dilution.
我們的 2020 年展望假設股票回購抵消稀釋。
Now to anticipate a question likely on your mind regarding the $1 billion cash proceeds from Kontoor Brands, we intend to pay off our short-term borrowings, which are about $650 million at the end of fiscal 2019.
現在預計您可能會想到一個關於 Kontoor Brands 的 10 億美元現金收益的問題,我們打算償還我們的短期借款,到 2019 財年末約為 6.5 億美元。
And while we will be opportunistic with respect to repos, M&A remains our top capital allocation priority.
雖然我們將在回購方面投機取巧,但併購仍然是我們的首要資本配置優先事項。
With our leverage ratio back at 2x and the cash from Kontoor Brands, we have significant capacity for M&A, which gives us the opportunity to drive incremental value creation, in addition to the strength of our organic plan.
憑藉我們的槓桿率回到 2 倍和來自 Kontoor Brands 的現金,我們擁有強大的併購能力,這使我們有機會推動增量價值創造,以及我們的有機計劃的實力。
Cash flow from operations is expected to be at least $1.3 billion on an adjusted basis.
經調整的運營現金流預計至少為 13 億美元。
Our cash flow outlook for 2020 excludes Kontoor Brands as well as the impact of timing-related items in connection with our fiscal year-end change.
我們對 2020 年的現金流展望不包括 Kontoor Brands 以及與我們的財年末變化相關的時間相關項目的影響。
On a normalized basis, cash flow from ops is expected to grow roughly in line with earnings.
在正常化的基礎上,來自運營的現金流預計將與收益大致一致。
CapEx is expected to be just under $400 million for 2020 driven primarily by infrastructure investments as a result of our growth.
預計到 2020 年,資本支出將略低於 4 億美元,主要是由於我們的增長而受到基礎設施投資的推動。
We expect our CapEx on a normal run rate basis going forward to be about $250 million.
我們預計我們的資本支出在正常運行率的基礎上未來約為 2.5 億美元。
So in summary, our business performance is strong, and the execution of this world-class management team has been nothing short of amazing.
綜上所述,我們的業務表現強勁,這支世界級管理團隊的執行力令人驚嘆。
Our portfolio is much better positioned as we head into next year.
隨著我們進入明年,我們的投資組合的定位要好得多。
Our investments are creating strong demand across the globe.
我們的投資正在全球範圍內創造強勁的需求。
And while we are pleased with our progress to date, the most exciting part of our story is we're just getting started.
雖然我們對迄今為止的進展感到滿意,但我們故事中最令人興奮的部分是我們才剛剛開始。
With the spin-off of Kontoor expected to be completed today, we're looking forward to the next chapter of value creation for VF.
隨著 Kontoor 的分拆預計將於今天完成,我們期待著 VF 創造價值的新篇章。
I'll now turn it back to the operator, and we'll open the call for your questions.
我現在將其轉回給接線員,我們將打開電話詢問您的問題。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Our first question today is coming from Erinn Murphy from Piper Jaffray.
(操作員說明)我們今天的第一個問題來自 Piper Jaffray 的 Erinn Murphy。
Erinn Elisabeth Murphy - MD and Senior Research Analyst
Erinn Elisabeth Murphy - MD and Senior Research Analyst
I guess my first question is on Vans.
我想我的第一個問題是關於 Vans。
You guys talked it tracking nicely ahead of the $5 billion long-term target.
你們說它遠遠超過了 50 億美元的長期目標。
If we drilled down into the quarter, the dollar growth was lighter than we've seen in the last 6 quarters.
如果我們深入到本季度,美元增長比我們在過去 6 個季度看到的要輕。
Can you just speak to kind of what some of the drivers (inaudible) in Asia was a little bit slower.
你能談談亞洲的一些車手(聽不清)慢一點嗎?
And then just thinking ahead to 2020, what is the dollar impact from the South American business model changes to Vans?
再想想 2020 年,南美商業模式的變化對 Vans 的美元影響是什麼?
Scott A. Roe - VP & CFO
Scott A. Roe - VP & CFO
Yes.
是的。
So Erinn, this is Scott.
艾琳,這是斯科特。
So first of all, in Vans, I guess, the big picture is, remember, we're talking a soft landing and you're seeing that modest deceleration.
所以首先,我想,在 Vans 中,大局是,記住,我們正在談論軟著陸,而你會看到適度的減速。
That's really the big picture, and we don't see anything fundamentally different in that overall trajectory.
這真的是大局,我們在整個軌跡中沒有看到任何根本不同的東西。
So that's number one.
所以這是第一名。
And while the business is moderating off these growth rates, we still see a very strong business as we leave Q4.
雖然業務正在放緩這些增長率,但在我們離開第四季度時,我們仍然看到業務非常強勁。
And the signs are positive as it relates to Vans, whether that's channel checks, the social media, all those factors remain high.
與 Vans 相關的跡像是積極的,無論是渠道檢查、社交媒體,所有這些因素都仍然很高。
There is some wholesale timing.
有一些批發時間。
I think you called out Asia.
我想你叫了亞洲。
If you like -- you might recall, the third quarter was exceptionally strong.
如果你喜歡——你可能還記得,第三季度異常強勁。
You've got some noise quarter to quarter, but there's nothing fundamentally that we see here that changes anything we feel about the trajectory or timing of the business.
你每個季度都會有一些噪音,但我們在這裡看到的根本上沒有任何改變我們對業務軌跡或時間安排的感覺。
Steve, I don't know if you want to add anything from a Vans standpoint.
史蒂夫,我不知道你是否想從 Vans 的角度添加任何內容。
Steven E. Rendle - Executive Chairman, President & CEO
Steven E. Rendle - Executive Chairman, President & CEO
No, no.
不,不。
I think you that hit it.
我認為你擊中了它。
Scott A. Roe - VP & CFO
Scott A. Roe - VP & CFO
And then as it relates to CASA, we -- you asked about the impact.
然後,當它與 CASA 相關時,我們 - 你詢問了影響。
It's about 1 point worth of growth for the Vans business.
對於 Vans 業務來說,這大約是 1 個百分點的增長。
And just to give some shape on that, the business ex Kontoor is less than $150 million in total.
只是為了說明這一點,前 Kontoor 的業務總額不到 1.5 億美元。
But obviously, as you change from a direct model in a few of these countries to either a distributor or a licensee, then that has a top line impact.
但很明顯,當您從其中幾個國家的直接模式轉變為分銷商或被許可方時,就會產生頂線影響。
Although from a bottom line standpoint, we think this will be modestly actually positive over time.
儘管從底線的角度來看,我們認為隨著時間的推移,這將是適度的,實際上是積極的。
Erinn Elisabeth Murphy - MD and Senior Research Analyst
Erinn Elisabeth Murphy - MD and Senior Research Analyst
Got it.
知道了。
That's helpful.
這很有幫助。
And then I guess my second question is just on the ongoing investment this quarter, I think it was another $20 million of incremental investment.
然後我想我的第二個問題只是關於本季度的持續投資,我認為這是另外 2000 萬美元的增量投資。
Can you just unpack what some of those biggest buckets have been?
你能解開那些最大的桶是什麼嗎?
And then Scott, as you talked about the shaping for 2020 and kind of the components of the guide, you did talk about your planning for ongoing investment.
然後斯科特,當你談到 2020 年的塑造和指南的組成部分時,你確實談到了你對持續投資的計劃。
How should we think about 2020 level of investment?
我們應該如何看待2020年的投資水平?
Scott A. Roe - VP & CFO
Scott A. Roe - VP & CFO
Yes, Erinn.
是的,愛琳。
So a couple of things that are, I think, behind your question.
因此,我認為您的問題背後有幾件事。
So first of all, if you look at our implied guidance, it's a modest SG&A leverage, and so I think that's part of your question.
因此,首先,如果您查看我們的隱含指導,這是一個適度的 SG&A 槓桿,所以我認為這是您問題的一部分。
So let me answer that more broadly.
所以讓我更廣泛地回答這個問題。
As we think about our long-term algorithm, it is absolutely still in place.
當我們考慮我們的長期算法時,它絕對仍然存在。
We've talked about high single-digit top line growth, gross margin expansion, both through mix and also some of the -- frankly, some of the moves we've made from a portfolio standpoint.
我們已經談到了高個位數的收入增長,毛利率擴張,無論是通過組合還是一些 - 坦率地說,我們從投資組合的角度採取的一些舉措。
All those things -- and innovation and all the other things we talk about, pricing power, all those driving gross margin and operating margin expansion.
所有這些 - 以及我們談論的創新和所有其他事情,定價能力,所有這些推動毛利率和營業利潤率擴張的因素。
As it relates to our investments, we've said consistently that we're going to continue to opportunistically invest around those key capabilities and strategic priorities that we think are giving us a separation from our competitive set and really driving some of the growth of our brands.
由於它與我們的投資有關,我們一直表示,我們將繼續圍繞我們認為使我們與競爭對手區分開來並真正推動我們的一些增長的關鍵能力和戰略重點進行機會性投資。品牌。
And I would point backwards and say one of the reasons we think we're ahead of our long-range plan is because of some of those capabilities that we've been investing in.
我會向後指出,我們認為我們領先於我們的長期計劃的原因之一是因為我們一直在投資的一些能力。
Some areas -- I mean, we've talked about them, D2C, digital in particular, which, by the way, drives both gross margin and also as an SG&A component that comes with it, insights analytics, advanced manufacturing, demand creation.
一些領域——我的意思是,我們已經討論過它們,特別是 D2C,數字化,順便說一下,這既可以推動毛利率,也可以作為隨之而來的 SG&A 組件、洞察分析、先進製造、需求創造。
It's the same things that we've been talking about, Erinn.
這和我們一直在談論的事情一樣,Erinn。
Now as it -- the other thing I would just point out is, listen, this is the first guidance for the year.
現在,我要指出的另一件事是,聽著,這是今年的第一個指導。
As you can imagine, we're giving you guidance that we have strong confidence in.
您可以想像,我們正在為您提供我們非常有信心的指導。
As we see opportunities from margin expansion, we're going to make sure we're delivering our commitments to The Street.
當我們看到利潤擴張帶來的機會時,我們將確保我們兌現對華爾街的承諾。
Don't forget our earnings are up 17% to 19%.
別忘了我們的收入增長了 17% 到 19%。
I'll say that again, 17% to 19% earnings growth.
我再說一遍,17% 到 19% 的收益增長。
But we believe the investments back into our business are one of the reasons why we're seeing the success that we are, and that is an area, once we fulfilled our commitment to The Street, that we're going to continue to make those investments.
但我們相信,對我們業務的投資是我們看到成功的原因之一,而且這是一個領域,一旦我們履行了對 The Street 的承諾,我們將繼續做出那些投資。
Operator
Operator
Our next question is coming from Bob Drbul from Guggenheim Securities.
我們的下一個問題來自古根海姆證券公司的 Bob Drbul。
Robert Scott Drbul - Senior MD
Robert Scott Drbul - Senior MD
I guess the first question that I have is really, one, are you done with the portfolio or not?
我想我的第一個問題是真的,一個,你完成了投資組合嗎?
Are we going to take a breath from all the model changes and everything because it's a little complicated when you think about where you are right now.
我們是否要從所有模型更改和所有內容中喘口氣,因為當您考慮您現在所處的位置時,這有點複雜。
But I'm serious, are you guys going to take a break from the portfolio changes?
但我是認真的,你們打算從投資組合的變化中休息一下嗎?
Do you think you're where you want to be to try to, like, go through this next chapter?
你認為你是你想去的地方,比如,經歷下一章嗎?
Steven E. Rendle - Executive Chairman, President & CEO
Steven E. Rendle - Executive Chairman, President & CEO
Yes.
是的。
Bob, this is Steve.
鮑勃,這是史蒂夫。
We apologize for the tremendous number of changes you've all had to negotiate.
對於你們必須協商的大量變更,我們深表歉意。
But let me leave you with this.
但是,讓我把這個留給你。
We've been very purposeful over the last 24 months to reshape our portfolio to align with our long-term growth aspirations.
在過去的 24 個月裡,我們非常有針對性地重塑我們的投資組合,以符合我們的長期增長願望。
And I think you've -- what you see today is who we intend to be.
我認為你已經 - 你今天看到的是我們打算成為的人。
Now M&A remains the #1 capital allocation priority that we have.
現在,併購仍然是我們擁有的第一大資本配置優先事項。
We have the means to do that.
我們有辦法做到這一點。
We will be very rigorous, very thoughtful and disciplined.
我們會非常嚴謹、非常周到、有紀律。
But I would tell you, our people would love it as much as you would if we would just let the dust settle, get to our move, execute for a few quarters.
但我會告訴你,如果我們讓塵埃落定,開始行動,執行幾個季度,我們的人民會和你一樣喜歡它。
But we will be very mindful as we continue to look at the M&A opportunities around us.
但是,當我們繼續關注我們周圍的併購機會時,我們會非常小心。
Robert Scott Drbul - Senior MD
Robert Scott Drbul - Senior MD
Got it.
知道了。
Okay.
好的。
And then I guess the other question I have is when you take a step back over the last few months just at retail, including some of the reports recently from your wholesale customers, the environment has definitely gotten a little bit tougher.
然後我想我的另一個問題是,當您在過去幾個月中僅在零售業退後一步時,包括最近來自批發客戶的一些報告,環境肯定變得更加艱難。
And you guys are outperforming.
而且你們表現出色。
But can you just talk about how the order books for your businesses have materialized on a wholesale basis?
但是您能談談您的企業的訂單是如何在批發的基礎上實現的嗎?
And have they strengthened going into fall?
他們在秋季有沒有加強?
Or have there been any pullbacks most recently just by what we've seen for the spring so far?
或者最近是否有任何回調只是我們迄今為止在春季看到的情況?
Scott A. Roe - VP & CFO
Scott A. Roe - VP & CFO
Yes.
是的。
Bob, Scott here.
鮑勃,斯科特在這裡。
The -- I guess the big picture is we've seen -- we see strong order books.
- 我想大局是我們已經看到的 - 我們看到了強勁的訂單。
And at least in our brands and our key partners, the general sentiment has been positive.
至少在我們的品牌和主要合作夥伴中,總體情緒是積極的。
Now part of that too is inventories at retail are pretty good shape.
現在,其中一部分也是零售庫存狀況良好。
I mean not universally.
我的意思不是普遍的。
There's always exceptions out there.
總有例外。
But as a general rule, it's been a good year.
但總的來說,這是一個好年頭。
With -- sell-through has been pretty good, at least in the -- where we play.
隨著 - 銷售一直很好,至少在我們玩的地方。
And we're in pretty good shape.
而且我們的狀態非常好。
So we see confidence.
所以我們看到了信心。
I wouldn't say a big change, frankly.
坦率地說,我不會說有很大的變化。
Better or worse, we see continuation of the support that we've seen coming out of the second half.
無論好壞,我們看到下半年的支持將繼續。
Steven E. Rendle - Executive Chairman, President & CEO
Steven E. Rendle - Executive Chairman, President & CEO
And Bob, I would add, the result of the portfolio moves that we've made over the last 24 months, we have navigated our way away from that middle portion of the marketplace, and where we have wholesale penetration is in the better parts of the market.
鮑勃,我要補充的是,我們在過去 24 個月中所做的投資組合變動的結果,我們已經遠離了市場的中間部分,我們批發滲透的地方是在更好的部分市場。
And I would also say, the focused efforts that we have to be more retail-minded are putting us in a better position to be a better wholesale provider of quality products, supported by really quality stories that we're able to drive collaboratively with our key account partners to get that consumer traffic and strong sell-through.
而且我還要說,我們必須更加註重零售的集中努力使我們處於更好的位置,成為更好的優質產品批發供應商,並得到真正優質的故事的支持,我們能夠與我們的合作推動大客戶合作夥伴獲得消費者流量和強大的銷售量。
Operator
Operator
Our next question is coming from Michael Binetti from Crédit Suisse.
我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Michael Binetti。
Michael Charles Binetti - Research Analyst
Michael Charles Binetti - Research Analyst
I guess, Scott, my first modeling question is -- to get out of the way is when you get back to your desk, could you update that model and reply and send it back to us?
我想,Scott,我的第一個建模問題是——讓開的是當你回到你的辦公桌時,你能更新那個模型並回复並發回給我們嗎?
That would help.
那會有所幫助。
The -- you've added -- I think you added about $75 million of dissynergies to the baseline, right?
- 你已經添加了 - 我認為你在基線上增加了大約 7500 萬美元的不協同效應,對嗎?
Scott A. Roe - VP & CFO
Scott A. Roe - VP & CFO
That's right, yes.
沒錯,是的。
Michael Charles Binetti - Research Analyst
Michael Charles Binetti - Research Analyst
So but I think a lot of that is related to stranded costs you've incurred related to some of the myriad brand dispositions that have gone on over 18 months.
因此,但我認為其中很多與您因過去 18 個月的無數品牌處置而產生的擱淺成本有關。
As you've looked around and taken a look at the costs that you're stuck with, with those revenues going away, how did you think about whether you can start to work away with some of that, whether that's in the guidance for the year as you start with the $3.30 to $3.35 guidance for us this year?
當您環顧四周並查看您所堅持的成本時,隨著這些收入的消失,您如何考慮是否可以開始解決其中的一些問題,這是否在今年你從我們今年的 3.30 美元到 3.35 美元的指導價開始?
Scott A. Roe - VP & CFO
Scott A. Roe - VP & CFO
Sure.
當然。
Yes, so first of all, I'll just give you kudos for teasing all this out.
是的,所以首先,我會為你取笑這一切而表揚你。
Joe sent a decoder ring.
喬送了一個解碼環。
I don't if it's been received yet, but that'll help you get through that.
如果它尚未收到,我不知道,但這會幫助你度過難關。
So I think what you're doing, just for the benefit of the group, I think it's a good time to reset everybody.
所以我認為你在做什麼,只是為了團隊的利益,我認為現在是重置每個人的好時機。
So if you take our 2019 results and you look in the prepared materials we sent, there was a bifurcation between RemainCo and Kontoor as we reported it under VF consolidated.
因此,如果您查看我們 2019 年的結果並查看我們發送的準備好的材料,就會發現 RemainCo 和 Kontoor 之間存在分歧,因為我們在 VF 合併項下報告了它。
But then you take our implied guidance, the $3.30, $3.35, you look at the growth rates, work that backwards, then the implied base is different.
但是,然後您採用我們的隱含指導,即 3.30 美元、3.35 美元,您查看增長率,向後工作,那麼隱含的基數就不同了。
And you're exactly right, Michael.
你是對的,邁克爾。
It's that -- depending on some of the assumptions you make, you're going to be in that $75 million range.
就是這樣——根據你所做的一些假設,你將在 7500 萬美元的範圍內。
And indeed, that is the dissynergy number.
事實上,這就是不協同的數字。
So as you can imagine, we didn't just wake up one day and say we've got dissynergies.
所以你可以想像,我們不是有一天一覺醒來就說我們有不協同效應。
We've been talking to you guys about this transaction for, I guess a year or so.
我們一直在和你們談論這筆交易,我想一年左右。
And we've been talking internally for -- going on 2 years.
我們一直在內部討論 - 持續了 2 年。
So we had great line of sight to what was coming.
所以我們對即將發生的事情有很好的了解。
The majority of these relate to technology and the technology platform, which is largely unique to the Kontoor business.
其中大部分與技術和技術平台有關,這在很大程度上是 Kontoor 業務所獨有的。
So the way this is going to work is the -- for a couple of years, as they stand up their own systems, and they've talked about this publicly, they're on a TSA with us, transition services agreement, they're going -- little more than half of that cost is going to be reimbursed by Kontoor to us, and that helps mitigate those costs for that 2-year period.
因此,這種方式的運作方式是——幾年來,當他們建立自己的系統時,他們已經公開談論過這個問題,他們與我們簽訂了 TSA,過渡服務協議,他們重新開始 - Kontoor 將向我們報銷一半多一點的費用,這有助於減輕那 2 年期間的這些費用。
At the end of that 2-year period, we're already underway, and we've been working on plans to get those costs out of our system.
在這 2 年期結束時,我們已經在進行中,並且我們一直在製定計劃,將這些成本從我們的系統中剔除。
So I've made comments in the past about -- in response to either dissynergies, I've always said, yes, they are not significant or not material to VF.
所以我過去曾評論過——為了回應任何一種不協同效應,我一直說,是的,它們對 VF 來說並不重要或不重要。
And as we look at it on a net basis, they're not going to be that significant on a go-forward basis in the scheme of VF.
當我們在淨基礎上看待它時,它們在 VF 計劃中的前進基礎上不會那麼重要。
And we have line of sight to get out of those costs from a structural standpoint over the next 2 years.
從結構的角度來看,我們可以在未來 2 年內擺脫這些成本。
So hopefully that helps.
所以希望這會有所幫助。
Michael Charles Binetti - Research Analyst
Michael Charles Binetti - Research Analyst
That does.
確實如此。
So the -- I guess, the dissynergy number that we see in the model today is a -- looks a bit overstated in fiscal '20 and we can work through that going forward.
所以 - 我想,我們今天在模型中看到的不協同數字是 - 在 20 財年看起來有點誇大其詞,我們可以繼續努力。
Scott A. Roe - VP & CFO
Scott A. Roe - VP & CFO
Well, I wouldn't stay overstated.
好吧,我不會誇大其詞。
It is what it is.
就是這樣。
And you'll have a similar number.
你會有一個相似的數字。
What I'm saying is against that -- to mitigate that cost, you're going to have an offset from the TSAs coming from the Kontoor business.
我的意思是反對這一點——為了降低成本,你將抵消來自 Kontoor 業務的 TSA。
It is not just technology, but technology comprises the -- by far, the largest piece of that.
它不僅僅是技術,而且技術是迄今為止最大的一部分。
So what that means is year-on-year, you'll have a lesser dissynergy as you look into the 2020 guidance, and that's implied in there.
因此,這意味著與去年同期相比,當您查看 2020 年指導時,您的協同作用會更小,這就是其中所暗示的。
Michael Charles Binetti - Research Analyst
Michael Charles Binetti - Research Analyst
If I can just follow up on the brands then.
如果我可以跟進品牌,那麼。
Timberland has been described for a while as on the same arc of development similar to what we've seen from North Face in the past few years, but the 1% to 3% rev growth you already gave this year doesn't make a much improvement from recent results.
一段時間以來,Timberland 一直被描述為與我們在過去幾年從 North Face 看到的相似的發展弧線,但你今年已經給出的 1% 到 3% 的轉速增長並沒有多大意義最近的結果有所改善。
So we've seen interesting ideas like the pop-up on Fifth Avenue.
所以我們看到了一些有趣的想法,比如第五大道的彈出窗口。
We saw the Champion tie-in over the holiday.
我們在假期裡看到了冠軍的搭配。
We saw the website redesign.
我們看到了網站的重新設計。
Where do you think the disconnect is between expectations for that brand to accelerate and the guidance for this year?
您認為對該品牌加速發展的預期與今年的指導之間的脫節在哪裡?
Scott A. Roe - VP & CFO
Scott A. Roe - VP & CFO
Yes.
是的。
Let me start, Michael.
讓我開始吧,邁克爾。
So first of all, you probably saw the fourth quarter showed some strength, although we would say if you zoom out and click, it really -- the business is showing signs of encouragement.
因此,首先,您可能會看到第四季度顯示出一些實力,儘管我們會說,如果您縮小並單擊,它確實 - 業務正在顯示出令人鼓舞的跡象。
But overall, the trajectory is essentially where we expected it to be as we entered this year.
但總體而言,軌跡基本上是我們今年進入時的預期。
And we would say indications of improvement, modest improvement.
我們會說改善的跡象,適度的改善。
But fundamentally, the businesses is going to modestly improve next year.
但從根本上說,明年業務將適度改善。
Remember, in that 2020 guidance, which appears to be about flat, you've got the CASA impact, which I mentioned before.
請記住,在似乎基本持平的 2020 年指南中,您已經獲得了我之前提到的 CASA 影響。
Also one of the things going on within Timberland is a focus on improving profitability.
Timberland 內部正在發生的事情之一是專注於提高盈利能力。
You see some of that drag in the Outdoor results.
您會在戶外結果中看到一些阻力。
And you'll see that improve as we go next year.
隨著我們明年的發展,你會看到這種改善。
Some of that is at the cost of top line.
其中一些是以頂線為代價的。
For example, some underperforming stores, which, at the end of their lease, are going to be closed.
例如,一些表現不佳的商店在租約結束時將被關閉。
So when you put those 2 factors together, it is about 1 point of growth that is hidden in the implied guidance.
因此,當您將這兩個因素放在一起時,隱含的指導中隱藏著大約 1 個增長點。
So again, zooming out and click, I think you should say modest improvement as we're focusing on these fundamentals.
因此,再次縮小並單擊,我認為您應該說適度的改進,因為我們專注於這些基本面。
That game plan is very similar to The North Face plan over the last -- looking back several years.
該遊戲計劃與過去的 The North Face 計劃非常相似——回顧幾年。
Steven E. Rendle - Executive Chairman, President & CEO
Steven E. Rendle - Executive Chairman, President & CEO
And Michael, I'd pile on a just little bit here.
還有邁克爾,我會在這裡多說一點。
I think we've said the last couple calls, we're in that low single-digit growth place for the Timberland brand.
我想我們已經說過最後幾個電話,我們正處於 Timberland 品牌的低個位數增長位置。
We're a little bit behind where we'd like to be, but the diversification strategy that we've been talking about, it's working.
我們有點落後於我們想要達到的目標,但我們一直在談論的多元化戰略正在發揮作用。
We're seeing double-digit growth across all regions with our non-Classics styles.
我們的非經典款式在所有地區都實現了兩位數的增長。
And as those continue to grow, we will change the waiting and dependence of the Classics business that this brand has had for such a long part of its history.
隨著這些業務的不斷增長,我們將改變這個品牌在其歷史如此長的一段時期內對經典業務的等待和依賴。
We're seeing good growth with our apparel.
我們在服裝方面看到了良好的增長。
You also mentioned how we're elevating the brand, and the trial that we did on the pop-up on Fifth Avenue has informed a new brand prototype that you'll see us to continue to roll out thoughtfully, testing and learning this fall.
您還提到了我們如何提升品牌,我們在第五大道的彈出窗口中進行的試驗已經告知了一個新的品牌原型,您將看到我們在今年秋天繼續深思熟慮地推出、測試和學習。
But the team continues to work on elevating the brand, focusing on taking that brand focus into the design and merchandising aspects of the business.
但該團隊繼續致力於提升品牌,專注於將品牌重點納入業務的設計和銷售方面。
We've talked about the addition of Christopher Raeburn and elevating all elements of design and creativity.
我們已經討論了 Christopher Raeburn 的加入以及提升設計和創造力的所有元素。
We're still a little bit behind where we'd like to be, but we remain very optimistic with where we intend to be at a mid-single-digit growth potential in the out-years.
我們仍然有點落後於我們希望達到的水平,但我們仍然非常樂觀地認為我們打算在未來幾年達到中個位數的增長潛力。
Operator
Operator
Our next question is coming from Jonathan Komp from Baird.
我們的下一個問題來自 Baird 的 Jonathan Komp。
Jonathan Robert Komp - Senior Research Analyst
Jonathan Robert Komp - Senior Research Analyst
I just wanted to follow up on the G&A question and just maybe to tie in the dissynergies as well as the investment piece.
我只是想跟進 G&A 問題,也許是為了解決不協同效應和投資問題。
But I know a couple years ago now, in the '21 plan, you put out a goal for 35.5% on the G&A ratio and just given all the business model changes, which obviously changes the cost structure, I'm wondering where that target stands today.
但我知道幾年前,在 '21 計劃中,你提出了 35.5% 的 G&A 比率目標,並且考慮到所有商業模式的變化,這顯然會改變成本結構,我想知道這個目標在哪裡今天站著。
Scott A. Roe - VP & CFO
Scott A. Roe - VP & CFO
Yes, Jonathan.
是的,喬納森。
So obviously, many of those factors are changed because of the -- exactly what you mentioned, the Kontoor spin, the acquisitions, the dispositions.
很明顯,這些因素中的許多都發生了變化——正是你提到的,Kontoor 旋轉、收購、處置。
So we're -- for example, we're way ahead on gross margin from what we said.
所以我們 - 例如,我們在毛利率方面領先於我們所說的。
And so we bought some businesses with lower operating margins and all those things.
因此,我們收購了一些營業利潤率較低的企業以及所有這些東西。
I guess 2 things I would point you to.
我想有兩件事我會告訴你。
Number one, think of the general algorithm with the gross margin mix driving our ability to invest in the business, and we will continue to see leverage in SG&A and operating margin over time.
第一,想想毛利率組合推動我們投資業務的能力的一般算法,隨著時間的推移,我們將繼續看到 SG&A 和營業利潤率的槓桿作用。
And the other thing I'd say is I'd point you to this fall.
我要說的另一件事是我會告訴你今年秋天。
We recognize the need to reset our long-range plan, and we intend to do that in an Investor Day that we'll host this fall.
我們認識到有必要重新制定我們的長期計劃,我們打算在今年秋天舉辦的投資者日中這樣做。
And given the new shape of the business, we'll reset all those parameters.
鑑於業務的新形態,我們將重置所有這些參數。
But you shouldn't take away from that, that, that's a big change.
但是你不應該放棄那個,那個,那是一個很大的變化。
The basic model is the same that you've been used to in terms of the growth rates and the general way that this is going to function.
基本模型與您在增長率和一般運作方式方面所習慣的模型相同。
For example, I don't see any change in our gross margin trajectory.
例如,我認為我們的毛利率軌跡沒有任何變化。
We're going to continue to see operating margins expand over time.
我們將繼續看到營業利潤率隨著時間的推移而擴大。
We will see gross margin -- or SG&A leverage.
我們將看到毛利率——或 SG&A 槓桿。
We just need to reshape that in light of the new business model that we have, and that's what this fall will be about.
我們只需要根據我們擁有的新商業模式來重塑它,這就是今年秋天的意義所在。
Jonathan Robert Komp - Senior Research Analyst
Jonathan Robert Komp - Senior Research Analyst
Okay.
好的。
Makes sense.
說得通。
And maybe just a follow-up, and this maybe has been touched on a little bit already.
也許只是一個後續行動,這可能已經被觸及了一點。
But if I look at the results for fiscal '19, I know you beat the original earnings target by a pretty significant amount, almost close to 10%, and that's even with the incremental investments.
但是,如果我查看 19 財年的結果,我知道您已經大大超過了最初的收益目標,幾乎接近 10%,即使是在增加投資的情況下也是如此。
I'm just wondering kind of the pace of incremental investment to the extent that you'd show upside, either the sales or the gross margin.
我只是想知道增量投資的速度會在多大程度上顯示出上升空間,無論是銷售額還是毛利率。
Is the rate of strategic reinvestment the same as what it was sitting here a year ago?
戰略再投資率是否與一年前相同?
Or how should we think about that?
或者我們應該怎麼想?
Scott A. Roe - VP & CFO
Scott A. Roe - VP & CFO
Yes.
是的。
That's a hard question to answer because we don't look at it formulaic -- from a formulaic standpoint.
這是一個很難回答的問題,因為我們不認為它是公式化的——從公式化的角度來看。
The first thing I want to reiterate, we're going to expand our margins, we're going to deliver our commitment to shareholders.
我想重申的第一件事是,我們將擴大我們的利潤率,我們將履行對股東的承諾。
And we're -- that is a firm commitment.
我們 - 這是一個堅定的承諾。
Steve and I are rock solid on that.
史蒂夫和我在這方面堅如磐石。
And as we look at investments, incremental investments, it's really about -- we look at these, we rack and stack them, literally.
當我們看投資,增量投資時,它真的是關於——我們看這些,我們把它們架起來,從字面上看。
And we look at what are those opportunities, what do we think the payback is going to be, is this going to create a true meaningful impact in the business or create a point of difference.
我們看看這些機會是什麼,我們認為回報將是什麼,這是否會對業務產生真正有意義的影響或創造一個差異點。
And that's how we make those decisions.
這就是我們做出這些決定的方式。
And I would just say, they're not all perfect.
我只想說,它們並不都是完美的。
We haven't made 100%, but we've done a pretty good job looking back.
我們還沒有做到 100%,但回顧過去,我們做得很好。
And again, I'd just point to the return on capital of 22% over the last year.
再說一次,我只想指出去年 22% 的資本回報率。
We're -- that gives us confidence.
我們 - 這給了我們信心。
And you look at where we're at on our overall growth trajectory, that gives us confidence that, in general, we're making pretty good decisions.
你看看我們在整體增長軌跡上所處的位置,這讓我們相信,總的來說,我們正在做出非常好的決定。
And we'll continue to feed the fires that we think are burning, propelling these brands.
我們將繼續為我們認為正在燃燒的大火提供燃料,推動這些品牌的發展。
I'll give you a couple specific examples that's implied in our 2020 guidance around demand creation.
我將舉幾個具體的例子,這些例子隱含在我們的 2020 年需求創造指南中。
For example, we brought $1.4 billion of growth in the Vans business over the last 2 years.
例如,我們在過去 2 年中為 Vans 業務帶來了 14 億美元的增長。
And on top of that, we're still growing within their long-range growth plans.
最重要的是,我們仍在他們的長期增長計劃中成長。
So consolidating all those new consumers into the franchise around innovation products, like ComfyCush, we think that's a really good idea.
因此,將所有這些新消費者整合到圍繞創新產品的特許經營中,比如 ComfyCush,我們認為這是一個非常好的主意。
And this is a moment in time where we want to really consolidate that growth.
這是我們想要真正鞏固這種增長的時刻。
Think about that 3-year stack just for a minute.
想一想那 3 年的堆棧。
I'm just going to back up.
我只是要備份。
Think about the 3-year cumulative growth rate on that business.
想想該業務的 3 年累積增長率。
That's a pretty high bar.
這是一個相當高的標準。
And on top of that, we continue to grow.
最重要的是,我們還在繼續增長。
So where we see opportunities, where we think we have a meaningful point of difference, like ComfyCush, which is a -- really an innovation that the Vans team brought, we're going to invest in that.
因此,在我們看到機會的地方,我們認為我們有有意義的差異點的地方,比如 ComfyCush,這是 Vans 團隊帶來的真正創新,我們將在這方面進行投資。
I'd give you another example, FUTURELIGHT in the TNF business.
我再舉一個例子,TNF 業務中的 FUTURELIGHT。
We think this is a moment in time and taking advantage of this moment in time.
我們認為這是一個時刻,並利用這一時刻。
We're going to invest around that because we think it's a game changer.
我們將圍繞它進行投資,因為我們認為它會改變遊戲規則。
We think it's disruptive in the industry.
我們認為它在行業中具有顛覆性。
So where we see opportunities like that, we're not going to take those advantages.
因此,當我們看到這樣的機會時,我們不會利用這些優勢。
Now I don't know if that same thing is going to be -- if we should do better this year.
現在我不知道是否會發生同樣的事情——如果我們今年應該做得更好。
I don't know if there'll be that type of investment available or not, so I can't say per se what we would -- whether we would invest or not.
我不知道是否會有這種類型的投資,所以我本身不能說我們會做什麼——我們是否會投資。
It depends on the situation.
這取決於實際情況。
Jonathan Robert Komp - Senior Research Analyst
Jonathan Robert Komp - Senior Research Analyst
Okay.
好的。
Very helpful.
非常有幫助。
And last if I just could, any color in the shaping of margin expansion throughout the year?
最後,如果可以的話,全年利潤率擴張的形成有什麼影響嗎?
I know you gave a couple of pieces around currency and top line, but just any color on the margin expansion.
我知道您在貨幣和收入方面給出了幾篇文章,但只是在利潤率擴張上給出了任何顏色。
Scott A. Roe - VP & CFO
Scott A. Roe - VP & CFO
Sure.
當然。
So we talked about 60 bps next year largely driven by our mix.
因此,我們談到了明年的 60 個基點,主要是由我們的組合推動的。
And as you think about the other components, currency is a tailwind.
當您考慮其他組成部分時,貨幣是順風。
And you'll see that more in the first half than the second half just as those, frankly, as those favorable hedges roll in.
而且你會在上半年看到比下半年更多的情況,坦率地說,隨著那些有利的對沖措施的出現。
Against that, we have some cost pressure.
相反,我們有一些成本壓力。
Cotton, synthetics, polymers, petrochemical related and labor and overhead are the areas.
棉花、合成材料、聚合物、石化相關以及人工和間接費用是這些領域。
So if you see those net to a small net positive and then really the primary driver we see is related to the mix.
因此,如果您將這些淨值視為一個小的淨正值,那麼我們看到的主要驅動因素確實與混合有關。
So you'll see a little more gross margin in the first part of the year based on what we see today.
因此,根據我們今天看到的情況,您會在今年上半年看到更多的毛利率。
Operator
Operator
Our next question today is coming from Laurent Vasilescu from Macquarie.
我們今天的下一個問題來自麥格理的 Laurent Vasilescu。
Laurent Andre Vasilescu - Consumer Analyst
Laurent Andre Vasilescu - Consumer Analyst
You've seen impressive growth in China last year as that market was called out as a key driver for the 2017 Investor Day.
去年中國市場的增長令人印象深刻,因為該市場被稱為 2017 年投資者日的主要推動力。
Can you dimensionalize what kind of growth we should expect for this fiscal year?
您能否確定本財年我們應該期待什麼樣的增長?
And what brands should be driving that growth in that market?
哪些品牌應該推動該市場的增長?
Scott A. Roe - VP & CFO
Scott A. Roe - VP & CFO
Yes, I'll put a number on it.
是的,我會在上面寫一個號碼。
So we're -- in Asia, in general, we're looking at mid-teens.
所以我們 - 在亞洲,一般來說,我們正在尋找青少年。
In China, it would be north of 20%.
在中國,這一比例將超過 20%。
So we see continuing strength in the China business that's implied in the guidance.
因此,我們看到了指引中暗示的中國業務的持續實力。
I don't think we've specific -- we've talked about Asia.
我認為我們沒有具體——我們討論過亞洲。
We didn't specifically talk about China.
我們沒有專門談論中國。
But we see that momentum in China, which has been in that plus 20% range continuing at a similar pace for 2020.
但我們看到,中國的這種勢頭一直保持在 20% 以上的範圍內,到 2020 年將繼續以類似的速度增長。
Steven E. Rendle - Executive Chairman, President & CEO
Steven E. Rendle - Executive Chairman, President & CEO
And look, Laurent, the brands that will be driving that are really the brands that we have present in that marketplace.
看,勞倫特,將推動的品牌實際上是我們在該市場上展示的品牌。
Vans, The North Face, Timberland, carrying the majority of that top line growth.
Vans,The North Face,Timberland,承載了大部分收入增長。
But Kipling, also a good business for us in the Asia market and specifically China.
但 Kipling 在亞洲市場,尤其是中國,對我們來說也是一筆不錯的生意。
Laurent Andre Vasilescu - Consumer Analyst
Laurent Andre Vasilescu - Consumer Analyst
Okay.
好的。
Very helpful.
非常有幫助。
And then I wanted to follow up on Erinn's questions on Vans.
然後我想跟進 Erinn 關於 Vans 的問題。
I think you obviously gave a lot of detail, but I think you guys called out for equal growth at TNF.
我認為你顯然提供了很多細節,但我認為你們呼籲在 TNF 實現平等增長。
How should we think about the growth first half, second half?
我們應該如何看待上半年、下半年的增長?
And then maybe any dimensionalization on growth in wholesale versus retail for Vans overall.
然後可能是對 Vans 整體批發與零售增長的任何維度化。
Scott A. Roe - VP & CFO
Scott A. Roe - VP & CFO
Yes.
是的。
Laurent, I'll take that one.
勞倫特,我要那個。
So in general, the first half will be stronger than the second half in our implied guidance.
因此,總的來說,在我們的隱含指導中,上半年將強於下半年。
Again, we're thinking about a soft landing, and so you'll see that kind of shape estimated to take place over the year.
同樣,我們正在考慮軟著陸,因此您會看到預計將在一年內發生的那種形狀。
And that moderation occurs in both D2C and wholesale, but relatively larger decline in the wholesale business as a percentage.
這種放緩發生在 D2C 和批發業務中,但批發業務的下降幅度相對較大。
So we're thinking about high single digit from a wholesale standpoint, low teen from a D2C standpoint.
所以我們從批發的角度考慮高個位數,從 D2C 的角度考慮低青少年。
And I think that was in the prepared materials as well.
我認為這也在準備好的材料中。
Operator
Operator
Our next question is coming from Alexandra Walvis from Goldman Sachs.
我們的下一個問題來自高盛的亞歷山德拉沃爾維斯。
Alexandra E. Walvis - Research Analyst
Alexandra E. Walvis - Research Analyst
First question is on the Work business.
第一個問題是關於工作業務的。
You're guiding to a 4% to 6% growth in that segment.
您正在指導該細分市場實現 4% 到 6% 的增長。
I just wanted to step back there and ask about the exposure of that segment now to some of the cyclical end markets.
我只是想退後一步,詢問該細分市場現在對一些週期性終端市場的影響。
I know that, that was reduced with the Williamson-Dickie acquisition.
我知道,收購 Williamson-Dickie 後,這減少了。
But I wonder if you could share with us the rough breakdown of that segment to end markets and then perhaps help us to kind of parse through the growth rates of different brands that are embedded in that expectation.
但我想知道您是否可以與我們分享該細分市場到終端市場的粗略細分,然後或許可以幫助我們分析嵌入該預期的不同品牌的增長率。
I know that you talked about the 5% -- sorry, mid-single-digit growth rate expected for the Dickies brand.
我知道你談到了 5%——抱歉,Dickies 品牌預期的中個位數增長率。
I wonder if you could share any color on some of the other big brands there, Bulwark, Red Kap and so forth.
我想知道你是否可以分享其他一些大品牌的顏色,比如 Bulwark、Red Kap 等等。
Scott A. Roe - VP & CFO
Scott A. Roe - VP & CFO
Yes, sure.
是的,當然。
So I think part of the question was around the exposure to the cyclicality.
所以我認為問題的一部分是關於週期性的敞口。
And so we've said about 1/3 of the business, roughly 30% to 40% of the businesses is exposed to the, what we would call the cyclical parts of the market, like oil and gas, et cetera.
所以我們已經說過大約 1/3 的業務,大約 30% 到 40% 的業務暴露於我們稱之為市場的周期性部分,如石油和天然氣等。
And we're seeing real resiliency, I think I said in my prepared remarks in that category.
我們看到了真正的彈性,我想我在準備好的該類別的評論中說過。
Remember, our expectations for the Work segment are mid-single digits.
請記住,我們對工作部分的期望是中個位數。
And we've seen, we're right in that zone, in fact, probably at the upper end of that in Dickies at constant currency, 5% to 7%, really, ahead of our acquisition plan and at the high end of that growth.
而且我們已經看到,我們就在那個區域,事實上,可能處於 Dickies 的高端,以固定匯率計算,5% 到 7%,真的,比我們的收購計劃提前,處於高端生長。
The interesting thing, we believe that the grounding and work is really important for the work inspired.
有趣的是,我們相信基礎和工作對於受啟發的工作非常重要。
But where we see larger opportunity, frankly, is the -- in that maker community, work inspired.
但坦率地說,我們看到更大的機會是——在那個創客社區中,工作受到了啟發。
And Dickies, in particular, is a great example of that where we're seeing outsized growth in the Asia market, really, in that work inspired side, we call it lifestyle, whatever term you like, and we're going north of 20% over the last year.
尤其是 Dickies,是我們看到亞洲市場大幅增長的一個很好的例子,真的,在工作受到啟發的一面,我們稱之為生活方式,無論你喜歡什麼術語,我們將向北邁進 20 % 比上一年。
And we see a similar kind of trajectory as we go forward.
在我們前進的過程中,我們看到了類似的軌跡。
That is particularly exciting to us and, frankly, exceeding our acquisition goals from when we bought the brand.
這對我們來說尤其令人興奮,坦率地說,這超出了我們購買該品牌時的收購目標。
Steven E. Rendle - Executive Chairman, President & CEO
Steven E. Rendle - Executive Chairman, President & CEO
And just real quick, I'll pile on.
真的很快,我會繼續加油的。
Clearly, Williamson-Dickies brand is the -- is really that front and center large consumer property, but Timberland PRO business is growing nicely in that high single-digit rate as well.
顯然,Williamson-Dickies 品牌是——確實是大型消費者財產的前沿和中心,但 Timberland PRO 業務也在以高個位數的速度增長。
It plays very well into the -- those core work segments, but also has opportunity to move beyond in more of that work lifestyle piece.
它在那些核心工作領域發揮得很好,但也有機會超越更多的工作生活方式。
And then Red Kap and Bulwark in their respective sectors, doing extremely well.
然後是 Red Kap 和 Bulwark 在各自的領域,做得非常好。
And we see opportunities in being able to take our Red Kap brand beyond as well following some of that same playbook we see with Williamson-Dickie.
我們看到了能夠超越我們的 Red Kap 品牌的機會,以及遵循我們在威廉姆森-迪基身上看到的一些相同的劇本。
So we remain very optimistic and proud of the portfolio we've assembled and the team that's driving that business.
因此,我們仍然對我們組建的投資組合以及推動該業務的團隊感到非常樂觀和自豪。
Scott A. Roe - VP & CFO
Scott A. Roe - VP & CFO
Yes, sorry, part of your question was around growth rates on specific brands.
是的,抱歉,您的部分問題是關於特定品牌的增長率。
And we haven't said that publicly.
而且我們還沒有公開說過。
I would just say this -- that we see, I think our comment was pretty widespread growth.
我只想說——我們看到,我認為我們的評論是相當廣泛的增長。
And you can assume that if we're saying 5% to 7% overall, that the brands that you mentioned would be in that range from a growth standpoint.
你可以假設,如果我們說總體增長 5% 到 7%,那麼從增長的角度來看,你提到的品牌將在這個範圍內。
Alexandra E. Walvis - Research Analyst
Alexandra E. Walvis - Research Analyst
My second question was on the active division.
我的第二個問題是關於主動部門的。
So you continue to deliver the very strong growth rates in Vans, but the implied growth rates of some of the other brands in that division have been reasonably weak, and I think that's expected going forward.
所以你繼續在 Vans 中實現非常強勁的增長率,但該部門其他一些品牌的隱含增長率相當低,我認為這是預期的未來。
I wonder if you could spend just a moment on some of those brands and the trends that you're seeing there, Eastpak, JanSport.
我想知道您是否可以花一點時間了解其中一些品牌以及您在那裡看到的趨勢,Eastpak,JanSport。
And I think that Napapijri has been a growth spot there.
我認為 Napapijri 一直是那裡的增長點。
So what's really dragging on that division?
那麼,究竟是什麼拖累了這個部門?
Scott A. Roe - VP & CFO
Scott A. Roe - VP & CFO
Yes.
是的。
So one thing that's in the guidance is, remember, we sold Reef and that's not a discontinued operation.
因此,指南中的一件事是,請記住,我們出售了 Reef,這不是停止運營。
It's not material enough.
不夠物質。
So that really is weighing on the impact of the sector, particularly in the first couple of quarters because that business was very spring-oriented, so you're comping the majority of their business.
因此,這確實影響了該行業的影響,尤其是在前幾個季度,因為該業務非常以春季為導向,因此您正在競爭他們的大部分業務。
But if you look, our packs business is in the mid- to high single digit.
但是,如果您看一下,我們的包裝業務處於中高個位數。
A couple call outs, our Eastpak and our Napapijri business, which have really put several years in a row of high single-digit growth, even into the double digit, along with a really nice profitability growth.
有幾個人指出,我們的 Eastpak 和 Napapijri 業務確實連續幾年實現了高個位數增長,甚至達到了兩位數,同時盈利能力也實現了非常好的增長。
And we don't talk much about these brands, but they are real jewels.
我們很少談論這些品牌,但它們是真正的珠寶。
And they continue to do well.
他們繼續做得很好。
They're not that large in the scheme of VF, but they grow and they're profitable.
在 VF 計劃中,它們並沒有那麼大,但它們會增長並且是有利可圖的。
And we think that these are exciting brands that you're going to hear more about in the future.
我們認為這些都是令人興奮的品牌,您將來會聽到更多關於這些的信息。
Steven E. Rendle - Executive Chairman, President & CEO
Steven E. Rendle - Executive Chairman, President & CEO
And to that point, I mean these are brands where we're able to really test and learn many of our new brand building ideas and things that we're doing around creative vision work.
就這一點而言,我的意思是這些品牌我們能夠真正測試和學習我們圍繞創意視覺工作所做的許多新品牌建設理念和事情。
And that growth that Scott mentioned for both Napa and Eastpak are really a result of greater clarity of what these brands stand for, a rationalization of the styles and the elevation of big stories and focusing on a few markets and really driving strong outsized growth.
Scott 提到的 Napa 和 Eastpak 的增長實際上是這些品牌所代表的更清晰、風格合理化和大故事的提升以及專注於少數市場並真正推動強勁的超額增長的結果。
So think of these as certainly smaller but good growth drivers, but they're important parts of our portfolio for our ability to learn, test and scale.
因此,將這些視為肯定較小但良好的增長動力,但它們是我們投資組合的重要組成部分,以提高我們的學習、測試和擴展能力。
And they're certainly receiving the benefit themselves as they do that work.
當他們做這項工作時,他們自己肯定會從中受益。
Operator
Operator
Our next question today is coming from Matthew Boss from JP Morgan.
我們今天的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Matthew Boss。
Matthew Robert Boss - MD and Senior Analyst
Matthew Robert Boss - MD and Senior Analyst
So at The North Face, can you walk through the drivers of the brand's accelerated growth profile over the past year?
那麼在 The North Face,您能否了解過去一年該品牌加速增長的驅動因素?
And aside from potential conservatism or maybe tougher comparisons, anything structural behind the moderation to 7% to 9% constant currency growth next year versus double digits this year?
除了潛在的保守主義或更嚴格的比較之外,明年匯率穩定增長放緩至 7% 至 9% 與今年兩位數相比,還有什麼結構性的因素嗎?
Scott A. Roe - VP & CFO
Scott A. Roe - VP & CFO
I'll just jump in on the numbers.
我只會跳到數字上。
I don't think you should look at this as a deceleration of The North Face.
我認為你不應該將此視為 The North Face 的減速。
Steven E. Rendle - Executive Chairman, President & CEO
Steven E. Rendle - Executive Chairman, President & CEO
You stole my starting point.
你偷了我的起點。
Scott A. Roe - VP & CFO
Scott A. Roe - VP & CFO
Sorry, okay.
對不起,好吧。
Steven E. Rendle - Executive Chairman, President & CEO
Steven E. Rendle - Executive Chairman, President & CEO
No, go ahead.
沒有,繼續。
Yes.
是的。
Yes, I think, is it decelerating?
是的,我想,它在減速嗎?
I'm not sure.
我不確定。
I think this brand has put a lot of work in over the last couple of years, starting first with the management team cleaning up the marketplace.
我認為這個品牌在過去幾年中投入了大量工作,首先是管理團隊清理市場。
And amidst all that, standing up a product to creation team that's innovating some very, very strong products.
在這一切之中,為正在創新一些非常、非常強大的產品的創作團隊提供產品。
And the growth that we're seeing is really broad-based across each region.
我們看到的增長在每個地區都是非常廣泛的。
North America has returned to growth and it's across each one of their elements of the business from their core Mountain business to their Mountain Lifestyle business and the Urban Exploration.
北美已經恢復增長,從他們的核心山地業務到山地生活方式業務和城市探索,它涵蓋了他們業務的每一個要素。
We're really seeing solid growth from each one of those particular consumer expressions of the brand.
我們確實看到該品牌的每一種特定消費者表達方式都實現了穩健的增長。
And as we see this going forward, the innovations that are beginning with FUTURELIGHT, really being able to separate this brand from its peer group.
正如我們看到的那樣,從 FUTURELIGHT 開始的創新,真正能夠將這個品牌與同行群體區分開來。
And we talk a lot about returning to that rightful leadership position not only from a product standpoint, but from the things that this brand is doing from a positioning, brand experience and a purpose-led aspect, we're really confident and proud of where we stand.
我們談論了很多關於重返正確的領導地位的話題,不僅從產品的角度來看,而且從這個品牌在定位、品牌體驗和以目標為導向的方面所做的事情來看,我們真的對在哪裡充滿信心和自豪我們站著。
And high single digit at this time of the year is a strong outlook.
每年這個時候的高個位數是一個強勁的前景。
Matthew Robert Boss - MD and Senior Analyst
Matthew Robert Boss - MD and Senior Analyst
Great.
偉大的。
And then just a -- maybe just a follow-up to put together some of your comments regarding the 5-year targets outlined at the '17 Investor Day.
然後只是一個 - 也許只是一個後續行動,以匯總您對 17 年投資者日概述的 5 年目標的一些評論。
I guess is it fair to say that there's no major changes to the 16% EBIT margin target, despite maybe some different gross margin and SG&A path to get there given the portfolio reshaping?
我想公平地說,16% 的息稅前利潤率目標沒有重大變化,儘管考慮到投資組合的重塑,實現這一目標的毛利率和 SG&A 路徑可能有所不同?
Scott A. Roe - VP & CFO
Scott A. Roe - VP & CFO
Yes.
是的。
I mean I think I would say that our aspiration to 16% is unchanged.
我的意思是我想我會說我們對 16% 的期望沒有改變。
But the fact remains, when you take pieces out and put other pieces in, you reset the base.
但事實仍然存在,當你取出碎片並放入其他碎片時,你重置了基礎。
So that margin expansion is there.
所以邊際擴張是存在的。
I think we're talking about horizon, right.
我想我們在談論地平線,對。
And that's why this Fall Investor Day, I think, is really important just to reset all the pieces.
這就是為什麼這個秋季投資者日,我認為,對於重置所有部分非常重要。
For example, the Kontoor business, higher operating margin, and you take that out, that changes the math and, and, and.
例如,Kontoor 業務,更高的營業利潤率,如果你把它去掉,就會改變數學和、和、和。
So there's many examples like that.
所以有很多這樣的例子。
The most important point I would bring you back to is the basic algorithm is the same with that gross margin expansion and operating margin expansion.
我要帶你回到的最重要的一點是基本算法與毛利率擴張和營業利潤率擴張相同。
So we'll clean that up for you this fall.
所以我們會在今年秋天為你清理。
In the meantime, the takeaway, it's not really -- it's not changed.
與此同時,外賣,它不是真的 - 它沒有改變。
Operator
Operator
Our next question is coming from Jay Sole from UBS.
我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Jay Sole。
Jay Daniel Sole - Executive Director and Equity Research Analyst of Softlines & Luxury
Jay Daniel Sole - Executive Director and Equity Research Analyst of Softlines & Luxury
My first question is on some of the other smaller, less talked about brands and portfolio, like Altra and Icebreaker.
我的第一個問題是關於其他一些較小的、鮮為人知的品牌和產品組合,例如 Altra 和 Icebreaker。
Maybe, Steve, you could just help us understand, like, what's been the development of those brands that you've acquired.
也許,史蒂夫,你可以幫助我們了解你收購的那些品牌的發展情況。
Steven E. Rendle - Executive Chairman, President & CEO
Steven E. Rendle - Executive Chairman, President & CEO
Sure.
當然。
Great.
偉大的。
We don't talk enough about them.
我們對他們談論得不夠多。
Icebreaker, being our first purpose-led acquisition, had a really strong year, amidst being integrated into VF and having to adapt to a lot of our processes and fitting their culture inside ours, delivered a strong low double-digit growth rate last year and continues to innovate with Merino as their core product in that apparel category.
Icebreaker 是我們第一個以目的為導向的收購,在被整合到 VF 並不得不適應我們的許多流程並將他們的文化融入我們的過程中,Icebreaker 的表現非常強勁,去年實現了強勁的低兩位數增長率,並且繼續以美利奴作為他們在該服裝類別中的核心產品進行創新。
And we continue to be very bullish.
我們繼續非常看好。
You'll see some exciting things coming from the brand this year as we look to continue to evolve their retail representation of this brand as a really strong brand-building component.
你會看到今年該品牌帶來了一些令人興奮的事情,因為我們希望繼續發展他們對該品牌的零售代表,作為一個真正強大的品牌建設組成部分。
On Altra, we've -- they've been part of our Denver relocation and we've -- they've come through that extremely well.
在 Altra,我們已經 - 他們是我們丹佛搬遷的一部分,我們已經 - 他們非常順利地度過了難關。
They too have had to endure integration.
他們也不得不忍受整合。
As a small brand, that's not always the easiest thing to do.
作為一個小品牌,這並不總是最容易做到的。
And we have great admiration for our team and being able to work to that with us.
我們非常欽佩我們的團隊,並且能夠與我們一起努力。
They're now solidly in Denver.
他們現在穩固地在丹佛。
We've got a new leader there.
我們那裡有一位新領導人。
And it continues to connect extremely well with that core specialty running, trail running set of retailers and innovating some very interesting new products that will keep them at the forefront of that core running consumer.
它繼續與核心專業跑步、越野跑零售商保持良好的聯繫,並創新一些非常有趣的新產品,使他們始終處於核心跑步消費者的最前沿。
Jay Daniel Sole - Executive Director and Equity Research Analyst of Softlines & Luxury
Jay Daniel Sole - Executive Director and Equity Research Analyst of Softlines & Luxury
Got it.
知道了。
And then maybe, Scott, if I can you ask about that $75 million of dissynergies as you've reabsorbed that overhead from Kontoor.
然後也許,斯科特,如果我能問一下你從 Kontoor 重新吸收了這 7500 萬美元的不協同效應。
As you talk about finding ways to releverage that over the coming years and you've touched on it, can you just give a little bit more detail about how you do it and how much of that $75 million maybe you can eliminate by just becoming more efficient operationally?
當你談到在未來幾年尋找重新利用它的方法並且你已經觸及它時,你能否詳細說明一下你是如何做到的,以及你可以通過變得更多來消除這 7500 萬美元中的多少?運營效率高嗎?
Scott A. Roe - VP & CFO
Scott A. Roe - VP & CFO
Sure.
當然。
Well, when we buy something, I don't take care of it.
好吧,當我們買東西時,我不關心它。
First of all, that's my flip answer.
首先,這是我的翻轉答案。
But the -- as I mentioned, the largest component of that relates to technology.
但是——正如我所提到的,其中最大的組成部分與技術有關。
And without going too deep into it, the technology platform that the Kontoor business operates on is fairly unique to the Kontoor business.
無需深入探討,Kontoor 業務所使用的技術平台對於 Kontoor 業務來說是相當獨特的。
And so effectively, what will happen at the end of this period is all of that cost and the contracts and the maintenance of that system will come out of the -- come out of our company, right, it will come out of our cost center.
如此有效,在此期間結束時將發生的所有成本以及合同和該系統的維護將來自我們公司,對,它將來自我們的成本中心.
So it really -- there is line of sight to eliminate that cost.
所以它真的 - 有視線可以消除該成本。
Of course, we have other initiatives going on all the time in terms of looking at being more lean as an organization.
當然,我們一直在進行其他舉措,以使組織更加精益。
But when you look at the net impact of this and all of the activities that we have and the growth that we have, we grow into this pretty quickly.
但是,當您查看這的淨影響以及我們擁有的所有活動以及我們擁有的增長時,我們會很快成長為這一點。
It's a relatively small number in the size of, overall, the VF model, and we'll grow into it pretty quickly.
總體而言,VF 模型的規模相對較小,我們將很快成長為它。
I'm just going to add on, as I know we're ending to the -- getting to the end of the call.
我只是要補充一下,因為我知道我們即將結束 - 通話結束。
There's some other modeling questions that didn't come up that I want to just get on the record because I think it will help Joe in the follow-up.
還有一些其他的建模問題沒有出現,我只想記錄在案,因為我認為這將有助於 Joe 的後續工作。
So -- if nothing else.
所以——如果沒有別的。
But as our implied guidance, if you go below the operating line and get to the EPS, any other income you'll see there are benefits, and that is really in 2 areas.
但正如我們暗示的指導,如果你低於運營線並達到每股收益,你會看到任何其他收入都有好處,這實際上是在兩個方面。
There's about $70-plus million, call it $75 million of implied benefit there.
大約有 70 多萬美元,稱之為 7500 萬美元的隱含收益。
The biggest chunk of that is going to be from interest.
其中最大的一部分將來自興趣。
As we get the proceeds from Kontoor, we pay down debt, our average debt load, obviously, year-on-year is going to be less, and you're going to see that benefit.
當我們從 Kontoor 獲得收益時,我們償還了債務,我們的平均債務負擔,顯然,同比會減少,你會看到這種好處。
The other is don't forget we froze our pension, so you'll see pension benefits also showing up in that line.
另一個是不要忘記我們凍結了我們的養老金,所以你會看到養老金福利也出現在這條線上。
And that's a piece that we haven't talked about this morning, but you'll need that as you model the guidance that we have.
這是我們今天早上還沒有討論過的部分,但是當您為我們提供的指導建模時,您將需要它。
The other just general comment I would say remember we've been working on this for a couple of years.
我想說的另一條只是一般性評論,請記住我們已經為此工作了幾年。
And a word I would ask you to take away from this call is optionality.
我想請你從這個電話中帶走一個詞是可選性。
We've talked a lot about investments.
我們談了很多關於投資的事情。
We've talked about SG&A.
我們已經討論了SG&A。
We've talked about some of these other initiatives.
我們已經討論了其中一些其他舉措。
We obviously saw this coming.
我們顯然看到了這一點。
We know that we have line of sight to deliver 17% to 19% operating income and have the ability on top of that to invest back in those areas that, we think, have been paying off.
我們知道我們有能力實現 17% 到 19% 的營業收入,並且有能力在我們認為已經獲得回報的領域進行投資。
Remember, 22% return on capital over the last year.
請記住,去年的資本回報率為 22%。
So we could deliver more earnings.
所以我們可以提供更多的收益。
That's absolutely an option from a standpoint -- from an earnings standpoint.
從收益的角度來看,這絕對是一種選擇。
But we believe these investments are key to our reason that we're winning and our brands are winning.
但我們相信,這些投資是我們獲勝和我們的品牌獲勝的關鍵。
And we're going to continue doing that where it makes sense.
我們將在有意義的地方繼續這樣做。
Operator
Operator
That does conclude our question-and-answer session.
這確實結束了我們的問答環節。
I'd like to turn the floor back over to management at this time.
我現在想把發言權交還給管理層。
Steven E. Rendle - Executive Chairman, President & CEO
Steven E. Rendle - Executive Chairman, President & CEO
Great.
偉大的。
I'd just like to thank everybody for joining us on this call.
我只想感謝大家加入我們的電話會議。
We have just finished an exceptional year, a year of significant transformation.
我們剛剛結束了非凡的一年,是重大變革的一年。
Where we find ourselves going into fiscal '20 is in a very strong position.
我們發現自己進入 20 財年處於非常有利的位置。
We're a leaner, more focused version of ourselves.
我們是更精簡、更專注的自己。
And I think what you'll see is just continued strong performance as we focus on our purpose-led, performance-driven, value-creating operating model.
我認為您將看到的只是持續強勁的表現,因為我們專注於以目標為導向、以績效為導向、創造價值的運營模式。
So thank you, and we look forward to catching up with you here in a not too many weeks as we finish up our first quarter.
所以謝謝你,我們期待在我們完成第一季度的幾週內與你見面。
Operator
Operator
That does conclude today's teleconference.
今天的電話會議到此結束。
You may disconnect your lines at this time, and have a wonderful day.
你可以在這個時候斷開你的線路,並度過美好的一天。
We thank you for your participation today.
我們感謝您今天的參與。