Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corp (VAC) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Marriott Vacations Worldwide Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note, this conference is being recorded.

    女士們、先生們,早安,感謝各位的耐心等待。歡迎參加萬豪度假酒店集團2025年第三季財報電話會議。【操作說明】請注意,本次會議正在錄音。

  • I will now turn the conference over to your host, Neal Goldner, Vice President, Investor Relations for Marriott. Thank you. You may begin.

    現在我將把會議交給主持人,萬豪酒店集團投資者關係副總裁尼爾·戈德納先生。謝謝。你可以開始了。

  • Neal Goldner - Vice President of Investor Relations

    Neal Goldner - Vice President of Investor Relations

  • Thank you, and welcome to the Marriott Vacations Worldwide Third Quarter Earnings Call. I am joined today by John Geller, our President and Chief Executive Officer; and Jason Marino, our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

    謝謝,歡迎參加萬豪度假酒店集團第三季​​財報電話會議。今天與我一同出席的有我們的總裁兼執行長約翰·蓋勒,以及我們的執行副總裁兼財務長傑森·馬裡諾。

  • I need to remind everyone that many of our comments today are not historical facts and are considered forward-looking statements under federal securities laws. These statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties, which could cause future results to differ materially from those expressed in or implied by our comments. Forward-looking statements in the press release as well as comments on this call are effective only when made and will not be updated as actual events unfold. Throughout the call, we will make references to non-GAAP financial information. You can find a reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures in the schedules attached to our press release and on our website.

    我需要提醒大家,我們今天發表的許多評論並非歷史事實,而是聯邦證券法意義上的前瞻性陳述。這些聲明存在許多風險和不確定因素,可能導致未來的結果與我們在評論中明示或暗示的結果有重大差異。新聞稿中的前瞻性陳述以及本次電話會議中的評論僅在作出時有效,不會隨著實際事件的發展而更新。在本次電話會議中,我們將多次提及非GAAP財務資訊。您可以在我們的新聞稿附件和網站上找到非GAAP財務指標的調節表。

  • With that, it's now my pleasure to turn the call over to John Geller.

    接下來,我很高興將電話交給約翰蓋勒。

  • John Geller - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Geller - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thanks, Neal. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our third quarter earnings call. As you saw in our release last night, third quarter contract sales declined 4% year-over-year, a couple of points below our expectations. The shortfall relative to our expectations was driven by weakness in Orlando and Maui, 2 of our largest markets. Excluding those 2 markets, system-wide contract sales were approximately flat year-over-year. We're not satisfied with these results and have recently implemented meaningful changes that we believe will drive return to growth.

    謝謝你,尼爾。各位早安,感謝各位參加我們第三季財報電話會議。正如您昨晚在我們發布的新聞稿中看到的那樣,第三季合約銷售額年減了 4%,比我們的預期低了幾個百分點。與預期相比出現偏差,主要是由於奧蘭多和毛伊島這兩個我們最大的市場表現疲軟。除這兩個市場外,系統整體合約銷售額與去年同期基本持平。我們對目前的成果並不滿意,最近也實施了一些意義重大的變革,我們相信這些變革將推動經濟成長重回正軌。

  • First, we've adjusted our sales and marketing incentive plans to better align with our long-term objectives. Second, we're working to curb third-party commercial rental activity by a small subset of owners, which has depressed owner arrivals at some of our most attractive destinations in recent years. By curbing this practice, we expect to make more inventory available for occupancy by our owners, which should drive higher owner satisfaction and incremental arrivals at our most productive sales centers, benefiting tours and VPG.

    首先,我們調整了銷售和行銷激勵計劃,使其更好地與我們的長期目標保持一致。其次,我們正在努力遏制一小部分業主進行的第三方商業租賃活動,這種活動近年來抑制了我們一些最具吸引力目的地的業主入住率。透過遏制這種做法,我們希望能夠為業主提供更多可供入住的房源,這將提高業主滿意度,並增加我們最高效的銷售中心的入住率,從而使旅遊和VPG受益。

  • Third, we have implemented FICO scoring data for marketing purposes, which should result in higher VPGs and improved credit metrics. With respect to our modernization program, we continue to make strong progress towards the $150 million to $200 million in run rate EBITDA benefit by the end of 2026. One of the most impactful steps we've taken thus far occurred in August when we reorganized a portion of our HR and finance and accounting functions and transition work to third-party providers.

    第三,我們已將 FICO 評分數據應用於行銷,這應該會帶來更高的 VPG 和更好的信用指標。就我們的現代化計劃而言,我們正繼續取得強勁進展,力爭在 2026 年底前實現 1.5 億美元至 2 億美元的 EBITDA 年度收益。到目前為止,我們採取的最有影響力的措施之一發生在 8 月份,當時我們重組了部分人力資源、財務和會計職能,並將部分工作轉移給了第三方供應商。

  • This change will save us $20 million in annual costs that will fall to the bottom line going forward. In addition to these 3 operational changes I've already outlined, we're rolling out additional initiatives we expect to improve VPG as part of the modernization program. For example, we implemented initiatives to drive owner arrivals, offering owners Bonvoy points to arrive at select resorts within a 2-month window. This will help us drive incremental owner tours at and above average VPG.

    這項改變每年將為我們節省 2000 萬美元的成本,這些成本將直接計入未來的利潤。除了我前面提到的這 3 項營運變更之外,作為現代化計劃的一部分,我們還將推出其他舉措,我們期望這些舉措能夠改善 VPG。例如,我們實施了促進業主入住的舉措,向業主提供萬豪旅享家積分,讓他們在 2 個月內抵達指定度假村。這將有助於我們提高車主參觀次數,並使其達到或超過平均每加侖車輛的參觀量。

  • Our new owner experience initiative, which helps reduce [ rescissions ] and boost our tour pipeline is creating excitement at the sales table by giving buyers a preplanned vacation to look forward to after their presentation. And with over 270,000 packages in our pipeline at the end of Q3, the impacts of these changes will be realized over the course of the coming year.

    我們全新的業主體驗計劃有助於減少[取消訂單]並促進我們的參觀流程,透過為買家提供預先計劃好的假期,讓他們在演示結束後有所期待,從而在銷售桌上營造興奮感。截至第三季末,我們還有超過 27 萬個包裹在處理中,這些變化的影響將在未來一年內逐步顯現。

  • In the quarter, we also expanded our presence in Asia Pacific with the opening of a new Marriott Vacation Club Resort in [ Kallo ], Thailand. And we have other resorts and sales centers in development that we expect to contribute more than $80 million of annual contract sales within a few years after opening.

    本季度,我們還透過在泰國卡洛開設新的萬豪度假俱樂部度假村,擴大了我們在亞太地區的業務。我們還有其他度假村和銷售中心正在開發中,預計開業幾年後每年將貢獻超過 8000 萬美元的合約銷售額。

  • We have updated our full year expectations based on our third quarter results. October VPGs were down less than they were in Q3, and we expect occupancy to remain strong. Keys on the books for the balance of the year are consistent with the same time a year ago, and we expect to drive tour capture rates for owners as we continue to roll out initiatives to drive future owner arrivals. We also have 270,000 packages in our pipeline, which is a good forward indicator and loan delinquencies are down meaningfully year-over-year.

    我們根據第三季業績更新了全年預期。10 月的每間可售客房數量下降幅度小於第三季度,我們預計入住率將保持強勁。今年剩餘時間的預訂情況與去年同期持平,我們預計隨著我們繼續推出促進未來業主入住的舉措,業主的旅遊入住率將會提高。我們還有 27 萬個待處理項目,這是一個良好的發展趨勢,貸款拖欠率比去年同期顯著下降。

  • In conclusion, despite our disappointing results this year, I still believe in the long-term growth potential of this business. And with the recent operational changes we've made and our continued modernization work, we have tremendous confidence in the future profitability growth. We will be hosting an Investor Day, the morning of December 17 at the New York Stock Exchange, and I hope to see many of you there. It will also be webcast for those who won't be able to make it in person.

    總之,儘管我們今年的業績令人失望,但我仍然相信這家企業具有長期的成長潛力。憑藉我們近期進行的營運調整和持續的現代化工作,我們對未來的獲利成長充滿信心。我們將於 12 月 17 日上午在紐約證券交易所舉辦投資者日活動,希望屆時能見到你們中的許多人。同時,也將進行網路直播,方便無法親臨現場的人觀看。

  • With that, I'll turn the call over to Jason to discuss our results in more detail.

    接下來,我將把電話交給傑森,讓他更詳細地討論我們的結果。

  • Jason Marino - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Jason Marino - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Thanks, John. Today, I'm going to review our third quarter results, our balance sheet and liquidity position and our outlook for the year. Contract sales were down 4% year-over-year in the quarter, driven by 5% lower VPG and a 1% decline in tours. First-time buyer sales decreased 2%, while owner sales declined 5%. Delinquencies declined 100 basis points year-over-year and are now slightly below 2023 levels.

    謝謝你,約翰。今天,我將回顧我們第三季的業績、資產負債表和流動性狀況以及我們對今年的展望。本季合約銷售額年減 4%,主要原因是每千次展示銷售額下降 5% 以及旅遊銷售額下降 1%。首次購屋者銷售量下降 2%,業主購屋者銷售量下降 5%。違約率年減 100 個基點,目前略低於 2023 年的水準。

  • Financing propensity increased 90 basis points from last year, which is good for the long-term growth given the strong margins we get from our lending business. Due to the higher-than-expected financing propensity in the quarter, our sales reserve was 13% of contract sales, and we expect it to be 12.5% to 13% in the fourth quarter.

    融資傾向比去年增長了 90 個基點,考慮到我們從貸款業務中獲得的強勁利潤,這對長期成長來說是件好事。由於本季融資傾向高於預期,我們的銷售準備金佔合約銷售額的 13%,我們預計第四季將達到 12.5% 至 13%。

  • Development profit declined $33 million compared to the prior year, reflecting lower contract sales and higher marketing and sales expense. Total company rental profit declined $17 million to $21 million, primarily driven by higher unsold maintenance fees and getaways at Interval.

    與前一年相比,開發利潤下降了 3,300 萬美元,反映出合約銷售額下降以及行銷和銷售費用增加。公司總租賃利潤下降 1700 萬美元至 2,100 萬美元,主要原因是未售出的維護費和 Interval 度假套餐價格上漲。

  • Our recurring revenue businesses performed well. Management and exchange profit increased 12% to $96 million and financing profit increased 5% to $52 million.

    我們的經常性收入業務表現良好。管理和匯兌利潤成長 12% 至 9,600 萬美元,融資利潤成長 5% 至 5,200 萬美元。

  • Finally, corporate G&A decreased $8 million. As a result, adjusted EBITDA decreased 15% year-over-year to $170 million.

    最後,公司一般及行政費用減少了 800 萬美元。因此,調整後的 EBITDA 年減 15% 至 1.7 億美元。

  • Moving to the balance sheet. During the quarter, we issued $575 million of 6.5% senior notes, which we will use to repay our 0% convertible debt when it matures in January. We ended the quarter with leverage of 4.1x and $1.4 billion in liquidity in anticipation of repaying those notes. We also terminated our delayed draw term loan. After January, our next corporate debt maturity isn't until December 2027, so our balance sheet is in good shape from a maturity perspective.

    接下來查看資產負債表。本季度,我們發行了 5.75 億美元的 6.5% 優先票據,我們將用這些票據在 1 月份償還到期的 0% 可轉換債務。本季末,我們的槓桿率為 4.1 倍,流動資金為 14 億美元,預計能夠償還這些票據。我們也終止了延期提取的定期貸款。1 月之後,我們的下一筆公司債務到期日是 2027 年 12 月,因此從到期日來看,我們的資產負債表狀況良好。

  • Looking forward, we are updating our full year guidance to reflect our results year-to-date and our expectations for the fourth quarter. We now expect contract sales to decline 2% to 3% this year, with tours flat to up slightly and VPG down. We still expect product costs as a percent of contract sales to be in line with last year. We now expect rental profit to decline around $30 million this year, which is slightly lower than our previous guidance due to lower RevPAR expectations.

    展望未來,我們將更新全年業績預期,以反映我們今年迄今的業績以及對第四季度的預期。我們現在預計今年合約銷售額將下降 2% 至 3%,巡迴銷售額將持平或略有成長,而 VPG 將下降。我們仍預期產品成本佔合約銷售額的百分比將與去年持平。我們現在預計今年的租賃利潤將下降約 3,000 萬美元,略低於我們先前的預期,原因是每間可供出租客房收入預期降低。

  • We expect management exchange profit to be in the $380 million range and for financing profit to be around $210 million and corporate G&A to be flat to down slightly this year. We continue to make good progress in our modernization program and still expect to deliver $150 million to $200 million in run rate benefit by the end of next year. For modeling purposes, we still expect to generate an incremental $60 million to $80 million of benefit to flow to the bottom line in 2026, with the full run rate in 2027. As a result, we now expect adjusted EBITDA to be in the $740 million to $755 million range this year.

    我們預計今年管理層匯兌利潤將在 3.8 億美元左右,融資利潤將在 2.1 億美元左右,公司一般及行政費用將持平或略有下降。我們的現代化改造計畫持續取得良好進展,預計到明年年底仍將帶來 1.5 億至 2 億美元的年度收益。出於建模目的,我們仍然預計 2026 年將產生 6,000 萬至 8,000 萬美元的額外收益流入利潤,2027 年將達到完全運行水準。因此,我們現在預計今年的調整後 EBITDA 將在 7.4 億美元至 7.55 億美元之間。

  • Moving to cash flow. We expect our adjusted free cash flow to be $235 million to $270 million this year. This lower guidance is driven by lower adjusted EBITDA, higher 2026 unsold maintenance fees due in Q4 and the timing of tax refunds, which we now expect to receive next year. Our guidance also excludes roughly $100 million of onetime cash costs related to our modernization initiatives, which is consistent with our previous thinking.

    接下來談談現金流。我們預計今年的調整後自由現金流為 2.35 億美元至 2.7 億美元。此次下調業績預期是由於調整後 EBITDA 下降、2026 年第四季度未售出物業維護費增加以及退稅時間(我們現在預計將於明年收到)所致。我們的預期還不包括與現代化計畫相關的約 1 億美元的一次性現金成本,這與我們先前的想法一致。

  • We are making good progress on our noncore asset and excess inventory dispositions and hope to dispose one asset this year and a couple next year. While we don't include proceeds from noncore asset sales in our adjusted free cash flow, any dispositions will provide cash we can use to either reduce debt or buy back shares.

    我們在處置非核心資產和過剩庫存方面取得了良好進展,希望今年處置一項資產,明年處置幾項資產。雖然我們沒有將非核心資產出售所得計入調整後的自由現金流,但任何資產處置都將提供現金,我們可以用這些現金來減少債務或回購股票。

  • We ended the quarter with $1 billion of inventory on the balance sheet. As we discussed last quarter, we plan to restrict our new inventory spending to capital-efficient arrangements where our cash outlay coincides with the start of sales as well as low-cost reacquired inventory. Our long-term goal remains to get close to 1.5 to 2 years of inventory on the balance sheet over the next few years, which will free up cash over time.

    本季末,資產負債表上的庫存為10億美元。正如我們上個季度所討論的,我們計劃將新的庫存支出限制在資本效率高的安排上,即現金支出與銷售開始時間相吻合,以及低成本的重新購入庫存。我們的長期目標仍然是在未來幾年內使資產負債表上的庫存接近 1.5 到 2 年的水平,這將隨著時間的推移釋放現金。

  • With that, we'll be happy to answer your questions. Operator?

    這樣,我們就很樂意回答您的問題了。操作員?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • [Operator Instructions] our first question is from Ben Chaiken, Mizuho Securities.

    【操作員說明】我們的第一個問題來自瑞穗證券的 Ben Chaiken。

  • Ben Chaiken - Analyst

    Ben Chaiken - Analyst

  • Either John or whoever wants to take this, you kind of threw a lot at us right off the bat in the beginning of the call. Maybe you could talk to us about the strategy to reinvigorate the top line, whether that's on VPG or on tours? And then what level levers are at your disposal? Or is this just kind of like a broader deceleration in the business?

    無論是約翰還是其他想接電話的人,你們在通話一開始就丟給我們很多問題。或許您可以和我們談談重振營收的策略,無論是提高VPG還是增加巡迴賽收入?那麼,你可以運用哪些層面的槓桿作用呢?或者這只是整個產業整體成長放緩的表現?

  • John Geller - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Geller - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. No, we're obviously focused on growth. I think as I hit on, 2 of our larger markets, Orlando and Maui, were down significantly year-over-year, about $20 million of contract sales in total. In the case of Orlando, you had owner arrivals down, which we've talked about this year more broadly has been a bit of a headwind, but we've offset a lot of that with higher capture rates on the tour side to kind of offset what we're seeing that.

    是的。不,我們顯然專注於成長。我認為正如我之前提到的,我們兩個較大的市場,奧蘭多和毛伊島,同比大幅下降,合約銷售額總共下降了約 2000 萬美元。以奧蘭多為例,業主到訪量有所下降,我們今年也更廣泛地討論過這個問題,這算是一個不利因素,但我們通過提高旅遊方面的捕獲率來抵消很多不利因素,從而抵消了我們看到的情況。

  • And I think that -- when you think about Orlando, in that market, we've got 2 Sheraton sales centers. So those sales centers average relative to our broader Marriott tend to have a lower income consumer. So we saw some softer VPGs in Orlando. A lot of the changes that I talked about making, as we've looked at, especially in markets like Orlando, what the compensation for sales and marketing execs and bringing those and making sure we're competitive to drive not only retaining our top folks, but also recruiting and getting high performers as well. So we're focused on that.

    我認為——當你想到奧蘭多這個市場時,我們有 2 個喜來登銷售中心。因此,相對於我們整個萬豪酒店集團而言,這些銷售中心的平均消費者收入往往較低。所以我們在奧蘭多看到了一些比較柔和的VPG。正如我們所看到的,我談到的許多變革,尤其是在像奧蘭多這樣的市場,包括銷售和行銷主管的薪酬,以及如何確保我們具有競爭力,不僅是為了留住頂尖人才,也是為了招募和吸引高績效人才。所以我們專注於此。

  • We did see some higher turnover in Orlando on the sales exec side. So when you bring in a new sales exec off the bat, they typically have a lower VPG and it takes a while to ramp that up. So retaining the best and bringing in new good talent is going to be key there.

    我們在奧蘭多確實發現銷售主管方面的人員流動率較高。所以,當你剛招入一位新的銷售主管時,他們的每千次銷售業績通常較低,需要一段時間才能提高業績。因此,留住最優秀的人才並引進新的優秀人才至關重要。

  • We talked about the commercial rental activity, as I talked about, and we talked about this earlier in the year, as we continue to focus on lower owner arrivals, a lot of that -- or some of it, I should say, as we've dug into a lot of the details that we've seen kind of an uptick in commercial rental activity. It's a small subset of the ownership base, but it does impact owners trying to get to where they want to go, and we want to get their satisfaction higher. We've got good owner satisfaction, so it can only help there. And then the flow-through is, more owners at the sites, better VPGs, better tours.

    正如我剛才提到的,我們討論了商業租賃活動,我們在今年早些時候也討論過這個問題,因為我們繼續關注業主入住率下降的問題,很多——或者應該說一部分——在我們深入研究了很多細節之後,我們發現商業租賃活動有所上升。雖然這只是業主群體的一小部分,但它確實會影響業主實現他們的目標,我們希望提高他們的滿意度。業主滿意度很高,這對提升業績有幫助。然後隨之而來的結果是,更多的業主擁有了場地,更好的虛擬遊客數量,更好的旅遊體驗。

  • So that's another big initiative. And we've ramped up sales training across the board at all our sites. We're starting to see some benefits there. In fact, in October, our VPGs were flattish. So that -- that's a good trend to start the fourth quarter, but we still got to do more to continue to drive growth going forward.

    所以這是另一項重大舉措。我們已全面加強了所有分公司的銷售培訓。我們開始看到一些好處了。事實上,10 月我們的 VPG 指標基本上持平。所以,這是第四季開局的一個好趨勢,但我們仍需付出更多努力才能繼續推動未來的成長。

  • Ben Chaiken - Analyst

    Ben Chaiken - Analyst

  • Okay. Okay. And then stepping back, I guess. Just going back to the beginning of the call when you fired off a number of kind of new initiatives. Looking out to '26, because I don't know if we've all digested kind of the moving parts that you guys are laying out here. Are there any curveballs we need to be aware of in any of the segments to stick out to you? I guess rentals comes to mind just because that's a little bit more of a black box for us typically. So again, I don't know if you have any visibility there or any other areas that some of these initiatives might impact.

    好的。好的。然後,我想,就退後一步吧。讓我們回到通話開始時,你提出了一系列新的舉措。展望 2026 年,因為我不知道我們是否都理解了你們在這裡闡述的各種細節。各個環節中是否有任何需要我們注意的突發情況,以便引起您的注意?我之所以會想到租賃業務,是因為對我們來說,這通常是一個比較陌生的領域。所以,我不知道您是否了解這些舉措可能會影響到哪些其他領域。

  • John Geller - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Geller - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. Are you talking rentals next year or just in the fourth quarter?

    是的。您指的是明年的租賃情況,還是僅指第四季?

  • Ben Chaiken - Analyst

    Ben Chaiken - Analyst

  • I'm talking next year. I'm saying that there -- it seems like there's a number of changes you're implementing today to drive top line. And I'm just trying to get ahead and see are there any implications to the P&L in '26 from those changes? And the one that jumps out to me because it's somewhat of a black box for us is rentals.

    我指的是明年。我的意思是,看起來你們今天正在實施一系列變革來提升營收。我只是想提前了解一下,這些變化是否會對 2026 年的損益表產生任何影響?而最讓我感到疑惑的是租賃業務,因為它對我們來說有點像個黑盒子。

  • John Geller - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Geller - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. Yes. Obviously, we're still working on our budget and long-range plan, which we'll provide more detail in December. I think specific to rentals, Jason hit on, we do have some higher unsold maintenance fees. We have more inventory we expect on our books going into '26 than we had this year. And that's inventory that we've taken back as well as [ Waikiki ] and some of the purchases we've made. So we will have higher unsold maintenance costs.

    是的。是的。顯然,我們仍在製定預算和長期計劃,我們將在 12 月提供更多細節。我認為,就出租房產而言,正如傑森所指出的,我們確實有一些未售房產需要支付較高的維護費。預計到 2026 年,我們的庫存將比今年更多。那是我們收回的庫存,還有[威基基]以及我們購買的一些商品。因此,我們將面臨更高的未售出車輛的維護成本。

  • The key is how do we offset that on the rental side and drive RevPAR. And so those are the details we're still working through. But on a baseline, we expect to have some higher costs. And the goal is to try and mitigate that as much as possible on the revenue side.

    關鍵在於我們如何在租賃方面抵消這種影響並提高每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR)。所以,這些細節我們仍在努力解決。但總體而言,我們預期成本會更高一些。而我們的目標是在收入方面盡可能減輕這種影響。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question is from Patrick Scholes, Truist Securities.

    下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Patrick Scholes。

  • Patrick Scholes - Analyst

    Patrick Scholes - Analyst

  • I have 3 questions to start with, and I have some more. I will jump back in the queue later on. First, a very high-level question. When do you consider all strategic alternatives for the company given the consistent underperformance, arguably miss-execution and certainly share price underperformance. Any reason it shouldn't be now?

    我先有三個問題,之後還有一些問題。我稍後會重新排隊。首先,一個非常宏觀的問題。鑑於公司業績持續不佳、執行不力(或稱執行失誤)以及股價表現不佳,您何時會考慮公司的所有策略選擇?現在有什麼理由不應該這樣做嗎?

  • John Geller - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Geller - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Sure. Yes. No, we're constantly looking at all things and work with the Board on that. So we're going to do everything we can to increase shareholder value.

    當然。是的。不,我們一直在關注所有方面,並與董事會就此展開合作。因此,我們將竭盡所能提高股東價值。

  • Patrick Scholes - Analyst

    Patrick Scholes - Analyst

  • Okay. Number two, let's just talk about expectations for 4Q. We saw that guidance was really only reduced by the amount of the 3Q miss. What gives you confidence that the issues in 3Q won't persist into 4Q?

    好的。第二,我們來談談對第四季的預期。我們看到,業績指引的下調幅度其實只相當於第三季業績未達預期的幅度。你有什麼信心認為第三季的問題不會延續到第四季?

  • John Geller - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Geller - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. As I mentioned, at least early trends in October, our VPGs, which were the big headwind in the third quarter are trending more positive. So still early days, but some of the initiatives I've talked about, [ things ] to drive owner arrivals in the near term. And as we look out and what packages and owner keys on the books and things like that. We still got to drive tour flow as well as VPG. But what we've given you in the guidance is kind of based on what we're seeing -- based on what we achieved in October and what we see on the books and the trends for November and December.

    是的。正如我之前提到的,至少從 10 月的早期趨勢來看,我們的 VPG(第三季的主要不利因素)正朝著更積極的方向發展。雖然現在還處於早期階段,但我談到的一些舉措,[旨在]在短期內推動業主入住。我們還要留意一下帳面上的套餐、車主鑰匙等等。我們仍然需要控制巡迴流程以及VPG。但我們在指導意見中給出的內容,某種程度上是基於我們所看到的——基於我們在 10 月份的成就,以及我們從帳面上看到的 11 月和 12 月的趨勢。

  • Patrick Scholes - Analyst

    Patrick Scholes - Analyst

  • Okay. And then third question is about the comment that was included in the earnings release around curbing third-party commercial rental activity to drive higher owner arrivals and satisfaction. Was there an issue with rental bookings that hurt owner arrivals and VPG in 3Q?

    好的。第三個問題是關於獲利報告中提到的限制第三方商業租賃活動以推動業主入住率和滿意度提高的評論。第三季租賃預訂是否有問題,從而影響了業主入住率和VPG?

  • John Geller - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Geller - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. I mean it's a great question. I'm not sure you can quantify it other than we know we've seen some higher owner rentals. And let's be clear, our owners can rent the product. That is an option for the typical owner. What we're seeing is a small group of owners that appear to be running commercial businesses, right? And they're obviously going after the better inventory, the better weeks and a lot of the higher-end markets to try and rent those and make money.

    是的。我的意思是,這是一個很好的問題。我不太確定除了知道我們看到一些更高的業主出租率之外,還能如何量化這一點。需要明確的是,我們的業主可以租用該產品。對於普通業主來說,這是一種選擇。我們看到的是一小群業主似乎在經營商業企業,對吧?顯然,他們的目標是更好的房源、更好的周數以及許多高端市場,試圖出租這些房源並從中獲利。

  • That's the commercial rental activity. So anything we can do to make sure they're adhering to the rules. Our points programs don't allow commercial rental activity, and we've employed some technology to track that, and we're working on how we're going to enforce those rules here going forward. So that will take a little bit of time to ramp up here, but we're focused on that. And if we can get more owners there, the read-through, right, is that should help owner satisfaction. They're getting on more vacations to their top choices. And when owners are happy and they're there, that should help us drive tours and better VPGs.

    那是商業租賃活動。所以,我們要盡一切努力確保他們遵守規則。我們的積分計劃不允許商業租賃活動,我們已經採用了一些技術來追蹤這些活動,並且我們正在研究如何才能更好地執行這些規則。所以這方面還需要一些時間來逐步推進,但我們正在集中精力處理這件事。如果我們能讓更多業主參與進來,那麼從長遠來看,這應該有助於提高業主滿意度。他們會去更多他們最喜歡的度假勝地。當業主滿意並且願意到場時,這應該有助於我們推動旅遊和提高虛擬遊客數量。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question is from Brandt Montour, Barclays.

    下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的布蘭特·蒙圖爾。

  • Brandt Montour - Analyst

    Brandt Montour - Analyst

  • So on that point, John, I'm sorry. So can you just go over that one more time, the commercial third parties. This is something we haven't really heard about at least on these calls. What sort of percentage of your inventory is being used by that? How long has this been a problem? Is it a bigger problem than the past? Maybe give us a little more context.

    約翰,關於這一點,我很抱歉。所以,您能再解釋一次關於商業第三方的問題嗎?至少在這些電話會議中,我們還沒有真正聽到關於這方面的消息。你的庫存中有多少百分比被用於此用途?這個問題存在多久了?這比過去的問題更嚴重嗎?或許可以提供更多背景資訊。

  • John Geller - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Geller - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Sure. Yes. Like I said, Brandt, owners can, in the normal course, rent their [time]. That's not prohibited. What you can't do for our documents with the Points trust and all that is run commercial business, run a rental -- and you see, if you go to [rent week], for example, you see a disproportionate amount of our weeks on there. I'm not saying those are all commercial businesses, but as we really dug into the data over the last year or so, we have seen an increase in what we call our guest of owners.

    當然。是的。就像我說的,布蘭特,業主通常可以出租他們的房產。[時間]。這並不違法。對於我們這些使用積分信託和其他商業運營方式進行租賃業務的文件,您無法進行以下操作——例如,如果您查看[租賃週],您會發現我們租賃週的數量不成比例地多。我並不是說這些都是商業企業,但是,在過去一年左右的時間裡,當我們深入研究數據時,我們發現我們稱之為「業主客人」的數量有所增加。

  • And so as we delve deeper into that, with technology, we're able to kind of see where we've got -- and once again, it's a pretty small subset of the overall ownership group, but the reservations, they're booking [ are ] disproportionate, right, to what you would normally see. So we're going to put all the procedures in place. And if we can reduce that, that makes more inventory available more generally for owners to use to go on vacation.

    因此,隨著我們深入研究,借助技術,我們能夠大致了解我們目前的狀況——而且再次強調,這只是整個業主群體中很小的一部分,但他們的預訂量與通常情況相比是不成比例的,對吧。所以我們將落實所有相關程序。如果我們能減少這種情況,就能讓更多房源可供房東用於度假。

  • Brandt Montour - Analyst

    Brandt Montour - Analyst

  • Okay. All right. And then taking a [indiscernible] step back, but on a similar topic. When we look at some of your peers' reports, it wasn't any sort of surprise that new owner sales has been a bit weaker and repeat has been stronger, which is something that I think kind of happens when you have a bit of a softer leisure macro backdrop.

    好的。好的。然後,我們稍微退後一步,但討論的是類似的話題。當我們查看一些同行的報告時,新業主銷售略顯疲軟而回頭客銷售強勁,這並不令人意外。我認為這是在休閒娛樂宏觀環境較為疲軟的情況下發生的。

  • But I think we're under the impression that the levers that you can pull to sell to owners are sort of there for you. Is it -- are you trying to tell us essentially that you didn't have the inventory available to make that pivot throughout this sort of maybe tougher-than-expected year? And when -- then when you talk about what you can do to change, and you said a few things, how much of those are super short term? How much of those take longer time? I mean you mentioned retaining talent and things like that, where you don't actually get the flexibility and maneuverability until '26.

    但我認為我們都誤以為,你可以用來向業主推銷的那些手段已經為你準備好了。你的意思是——你實際上是想告訴我們,在今年這個可能比預期更艱難的年份裡,你沒有足夠的庫存來進行轉型嗎?那麼,當你談到你可以做些什麼來改變現狀時,你也提到了一些,其中有多少是超短期措施?其中有多少需要更長時間?我的意思是,你提到了留住人才之類的事情,但實際上直到 2026 年你才擁有靈活性和迴旋餘地。

  • John Geller - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Geller - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes, a lot in there. I'm not sure I got all the question you're looking for. Let me try here. Yes, as you know, we run a 90% year-round occupancy at our system-wide resorts. So we run a high occupancy. We talked about the commercial rental activity. That's just a swap out of getting more owners versus renters and getting owners happier there. The near-term levers, which we started to do more in the second quarter, and we really ramped it up in the third quarter, are incentives, the Marriott Bonvoy program points to incent owners for short-term bookings where think places like Orlando or other bigger markets where we do have some near-term availability to get owners to arrive within 2 months.

    是的,裡面有很多東西。我不確定我是否完全理解了您想要的問題。我試試看。是的,如您所知,我們旗下所有度假村的全年入住率都維持在 90% 左右。所以我們入住率很高。我們討論了商業租賃活動。這只是用更多的業主代替租客,讓業主更滿意而已。近期槓桿措施,我們在第二季度開始更多地實施,並在第三季度真正加大了力度,這些措施是激勵措施,萬豪旅享家計劃旨在激勵業主進行短期預訂,例如在奧蘭多或其他較大的市場,我們有一些近期可用的房源,以吸引業主在 2 個月內抵達。

  • And those end up being above-average VPGs for the owners that were able to tour there. So that's one of the near-term initiatives that we've been focused on here to improve. I think when you talk about the commercial rental activity, that will help more over time. That's going to take some time to ramp up here over the next couple of quarters.

    而對於那些能夠前往參觀的車主來說,這些車最終都獲得了高於平均水準的VPG(車輛購買價格)。所以這是我們近期重點改善的措施之一。我認為,從長遠來看,談論商業租賃活動會更有幫助。這需要在接下來的幾個季度逐步推進。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question is from David Katz, Jefferies.

    下一個問題來自傑富瑞集團的戴維·卡茨。

  • David Katz - Analyst

    David Katz - Analyst

  • Pardon for background noise, it is what it is. What I wanted to get at is my -- I think our understanding is that this is a Salesforce driven business, right? That's at the heart of it. Can you just talk about sort of how the Salesforce is sort of being run today? Where was it 6 to 12 months ago? And how should we think about it 6 to 12 months from now? Unless I'm wrong, and I invite you to correct me, that seems to be kind of a critical piece of all of this and where the performance ultimately lands.

    請原諒背景噪音,就是這樣。我想表達的是——我認為我們的理解是,這是一個由 Salesforce 驅動的業務,對嗎?這就是問題的核心。能簡單談談 Salesforce 目前是如何運作的嗎?6到12個月前它在哪裡?那麼,我們該如何看待6到12個月後的情況呢?除非我錯了(歡迎指正),這似乎是這一切的關鍵所在,也是表演最終的方向。

  • John Geller - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Geller - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. Yes. In terms of managing our on-site Salesforce, I think the bigger changes and some of the things we've talked about is we've leaned in on training more recently to train, especially our newer sales folks. Some of the things I mentioned earlier, in certain highly competitive timeshare markets, you do see that seem to have more turnover, people moving around.

    是的。是的。就管理我們公司內部的 Salesforce 系統而言,我認為最大的變化以及我們最近討論的一些事情是,我們更加重視培訓,特別是對我們新入職的銷售人員的培訓。我之前提到的一些情況,在某些競爭非常激烈的分時度假市場中,確實會看到人員流動比較頻繁,人們四處流動。

  • And that's where, as we talked about, adjusting our comp programs to focus on not only retaining but also getting really good new talent. That's been a focus here. And I think I talked about it earlier, when you do have turnover and you bring in maybe a non-experienced timeshare exec, there is a bit of a ramp-up on getting their VPGs up. So everything we can do to retain the best talent and recruit in the best talent, that's the focus. And so there's no wholesale change overall other than really focusing on the talent. But you're right, the Salesforce, you got somebody who can do a $6,000 or $7,000 VPG on average versus $4,000. That's a big difference, as higher VPGs flow through to the bottom line. And as we really focus in on this, this should help drive higher VPGs going forward.

    正如我們之前討論過的,我們需要調整薪酬方案,不僅要專注於留住現有人才,還要專注於吸引真正優秀的新人才。這是我們關注的重點。我想我之前也談過,當人員更迭,引入一位可能缺乏經驗的分時度假高管時,需要一段時間才能提高他們的 VPG(每千次展示價值)水平。因此,我們工作的重點是盡一切努力留住最優秀的人才並招募最優秀的人才。因此,除了真正專注於人才之外,整體上並沒有什麼重大的改變。但你說得對,Salesforce 的某些人平均每分鐘能賺到 6000 或 7000 美元,而其他公司只有 4000 美元。這是一個很大的區別,因為更高的 VPG 值會直接影響利潤。當我們真正專注於此,這應該有助於推動未來更高的 VPG 值。

  • David Katz - Analyst

    David Katz - Analyst

  • So if I may follow that up, and if it was in there and I missed it, I apologize. But have there been some sort of departures in leadership or management within the Salesforce. Over the recent past or any changes worth noting?

    所以,如果可以的話,我想再補充一點,如果之前已經提到但我漏掉了,我深感抱歉。但是 Salesforce 內部的領導階層或管理階層是否出現了一些變動呢?最近一段時間有什麼值得注意的變化嗎?

  • John Geller - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Geller - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Well, not -- there's always normal turnover, David. I think in certain markets, when you get down to the frontline sales execs, the highly competitive markets, like I said, think Orlando, maybe to some extent, Vegas, those types of things. There's a lot of people looking for talent on the sales side. And that's where in a few of the markets, we have seen some higher turnover more recently of our better sales folks.

    不,並非如此──人員流動總是正常的,大衛。我認為在某些市場,當你深入了解一線銷售主管的情況時,你會發現,在競爭非常激烈的市場,就像我剛才說的,想想奧蘭多,或許在某種程度上,拉斯維加斯,諸如此類的地方。很多人都在尋找銷售方面的人才。正因如此,在一些市場,我們最近發現一些優秀銷售人員的離職率上升。

  • Jason Marino - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Jason Marino - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • And David, when you think about the comments that John made in the script about Maui, some of this is sales related. So we are still recovering from the wildfires. And as you think about sales execs that had to move 1.5 hours or 2 hours away because they lost their home and there was no housing, they [ did ] to commute for a while. And then, call it, more recently over the last 6 months or so, have found other opportunities closer to home. It's a tough commute to make that drive every day. And so that did impact us a little bit in Maui. That's not necessarily fixable overnight, but that is something that is related, but specific to Maui.

    大衛,當你回想起約翰在劇本中對毛伊島的評論時,你會發現其中一些與銷售有關。我們仍在從山火中恢復。想想那些因為失去家園而不得不搬到 1.5 小時或 2 小時車程以外的地方工作的銷售主管,他們因為沒有住房而不得不通勤一段時間。然後,更確切地說,在過去的六個月左右,我找到了其他離家更近的機會。每天開車通勤很辛苦。所以,這確實對毛伊島的我們產生了一些影響。這個問題不一定能在一夜之間解決,但這與毛伊島的情況有關,而且是毛伊島特有的問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question is from Shaun Kelley, Bank of America.

    下一個問題來自美國銀行的肖恩凱利。

  • Shaun Kelley - Analyst

    Shaun Kelley - Analyst

  • A lot of ground has been covered, but I did want to go back to the commercial piece that you've been talking about throughout. And I just want to make sure I understand what's happening here. But just to be clear, so are people basically arbitraging the point system to some degree and either kind of rent or rerenting that on third-party websites?

    我們已經討論了很多內容,但我確實想回到你一直在談論的商業方面。我只是想確認一下我是否明白這裡發生了什麼。但為了明確起見,所以人們基本上是在某種程度上利用積分系統進行套利,然後在第三方網站上出租或轉租這些積分嗎?

  • Is that what's really going on? And then what's your ability today as we sit here to kind of track and control that? Like what systems do you use? Or how like familiar are you with this? Because it would seem like you should be pretty aware of this. But again, I think for many of us, this is either the first or maybe second time we've ever heard of this.

    事情的真相就是這樣嗎?那麼,在我們坐在這裡的時候,你今天有能力追蹤和控制這種情況嗎?你都使用哪些系統?或者,你對這方面有多熟悉?因為照理說你應該很清楚這一點。但我想對我們很多人來說,這可能是我們第一次或第二次聽到這件事。

  • John Geller - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Geller - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. No, I think the way you described it, yes. At a lot of our resorts, given the markets they're in, you can rent those weeks for more than, call it, your annual maintenance fees, right? If that's what you're talking about, arbitrage. But yes, you can make money, if you will, just on your annual fees. And as I mentioned, owners in the normal course are allowed to do rental activity. It's really where -- and this is where, yes, we're tracking in the systems. We're identifying unusual high bookings by a smaller number and then doing the work to make sure that this is commercial and shutting those down. So it's a constant -- just because you shut 1 down, then there could be others. So we're going to continue to look at it and do the best we can to make people adhere to the rules and stop the commercial rental activity.

    是的。不,我覺得你這麼描述的話,是的。在我們許多度假村,考慮到它們所處的市場,你可以把那幾週的租金租出去,價格會高於,比如說,你的年度維護費,對吧?如果你說的是這個的話,那就是套利。是的,如果你願意的話,光是每年的會費就可以賺錢。正如我之前提到的,業主在正常情況下是可以進行出租活動的。這正是——是的,這就是我們在系統中追蹤的地方。我們透過少量人員識別出異常高的預訂量,然後開展工作以確保其符合商業慣例,並關閉這些預訂。所以這是一個常態——即使你關閉了一個,也可能還有其他的。因此,我們將繼續關注此事,盡我們所能讓人們遵守規則,並制止商業租賃活動。

  • Shaun Kelley - Analyst

    Shaun Kelley - Analyst

  • Got it. And then just sort of one super high-level question would be going back to the core business, just on the VOI sales. Just big picture, obviously, the trend line is a little different than what we're hearing from other operators in this space. So in your own estimation, how much of this is macro? And how much of this is idiosyncratic to your portfolio, be it some of the just continued headwinds in Maui or the [ Salesforce ] thing. I think we're all still struggling a little bit with trying to kind of balance, what's been a bifurcated consumer environment and that underlying trend line with what's kind of happening in [ VAC's ] business?

    知道了。然後,我想問一個非常高層次的問題,回到核心業務,也就是關於 VOI 銷售的問題。從大局來看,很明顯,目前的趨勢線與我們從該領域其他業者聽到的情況略有不同。那麼,你估計其中有多少是宏觀層面的呢?其中有多少是你的投資組合特有的,無論是毛伊島持續不斷的逆風,還是[Salesforce]相關因素。我認為我們仍然在努力平衡兩極化的消費環境和潛在的趨勢線與[VAC]業務中正在發生的事情?

  • John Geller - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Geller - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. Yes. I think if you want to start at the macro level, like I mentioned a little bit earlier, I do think in Orlando and some of our resorts where the mix of income is trends towards the lower end versus our higher-end resorts, things like that, we've probably seen some impact at that lower end of our household income. So we do see a little bit of that. But I think some of the bigger things that we've talked about, which we talked about earlier in the year, which is owner arrivals that in some of the commercial rental activity is probably a little bit with us. We'll solve that and move that forward.

    是的。是的。我認為,如果你想從宏觀層面入手,就像我之前提到的那樣,我認為在奧蘭多和我們的一些度假村,收入構成傾向於低端市場,而不是高端市場,諸如此類的情況,我們可能已經看到低端家庭收入受到了一些影響。所以我們確實看到了一些這樣的現象。但我認為我們今年早些時候討論過的一些更重要的事情,例如業主入住,在某些商業租賃活動中,可能與我們有些相似。我們會解決這個問題,並推動事情向前發展。

  • Owner arrivals this year versus last year, and we talked about this earlier, last year benefited from more plus points and things that were burning off. So the goal was to continue to drive own arrivals. And to offset that this year, like we talked about, notwithstanding owner arrivals being down. We've done a much better job of what we call capture rate, getting those owners that do show up, touring them at a higher percentage to really drive that, and we've got programs to continue doing that going forward. Yes, Maui, pre-fires was 10% of our contract sales. We're the largest, I think, in West Maui by far.

    今年的業主到訪量與去年相比有所增加,我們之前也討論過這個問題,去年受益於更多的有利因素和正在消退的因素。因此,目標是繼續推動自有航班抵達。為了彌補今年的情況,正如我們之前討論的那樣,儘管船東訪問數量有所下降。我們在所謂的「成交率」方面做得更好了,讓那些到場的業主以更高的比例參觀他們的房產,從而真正推動了銷售,而且我們還有計劃繼續這樣做。是的,毛伊島,火災前占我們合約銷售額的 10%。我認為,我們是西茂宜島規模最大的公司,而且遙遙領先。

  • It's a big part of our business versus our competitors. And the recovery has been choppy over the last couple of years. Jason talked a little bit on the sales exec side. But -- and I think we've talked about this before, we do a lot of packages into Maui. So when the fires hit, we stopped selling packages, right? It just didn't make sense and people weren't going to buy them.

    這是我們相對於競爭對手的一大優勢。過去幾年,經濟復甦之路一直坎坷。傑森簡單談了談銷售主管方面的狀況。但是——我想我們以前也討論過這個問題——我們做了很多運往毛伊島的包裹。所以火災發生後,我們就停止銷售包裹了,對吧?這根本說不通,人們也不會買的。

  • And so that pipeline started to get depleted, people that had packages started to come back over time, and then we started to sell packages again. So we have seen lower package arrivals just because of that, but those are starting to ramp back up. And then owners, they've started to come back to Maui, but they're being respectful as well to the messaging that's come out of Maui over the last couple of years. So that one is probably specific to us.

    於是,這條銷售管道開始枯竭,之前訂購了包裹的人開始陸續回來,然後我們又開始銷售包裹了。因此,我們看到包裹到達量有所下降,但這種情況正在逐漸改善。然後,業主們開始回到毛伊島,但他們也對過去幾年毛伊島發出的信息表示尊重。所以這個問題可能只跟我們有關。

  • And I think high level, as you look at our competitors, too, they're in a different spot, obviously, with acquisitions on the [ HGV ] side and how they're upgrading owners and selling into those products and [ T&Ls ] launch, new brands and new resorts. So they're at a different life cycle a little bit here in the near term. And I think that's offsetting for them any headwinds. They've got some good things that they're selling at the table.

    而且我認為,從高處來看,當你審視我們的競爭對手時,他們顯然處於不同的境地,他們在[HGV]方面進行了收購,併升級了業主,向他們銷售產品,以及[T&Ls]推出了新品牌和新度假村。所以,在短期內,它們處於略有不同的生命週期階段。我認為這可以抵消他們面臨的任何不利因素。他們桌上賣的東西不錯。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question is a follow-up from Patrick Scholes, Truist Securities.

    我們的下一個問題是來自 Truist Securities 的 Patrick Scholes 的後續問題。

  • Patrick Scholes - Analyst

    Patrick Scholes - Analyst

  • I have some questions just specifically for Jason. Jason, any costs or expenses for next year that you'd like to point out [when we're] modeling that we initially should be aware of?

    我有一些問題專門想問傑森。Jason,在進行建模時,你認為明年有哪些成本或費用是我們最初應該注意的嗎?

  • Jason Marino - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Jason Marino - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes. John talked a little bit about unsold maintenance fees in response to one of the earlier questions. I think the other item that we've talked about in the past and just to make sure everyone is on the same page is higher product costs as we go forward. You did see an increase as we expected from Q2 to Q3 due to the mix of inventory, and we think that will go up again next year.

    是的。約翰在回答先前提出的問題時,簡單談到了未售出的物業管理費。我認為我們過去也討論過的另一件事,為了確保每個人都理解一致,就是隨著我們不斷前進,產品成本將會上漲。正如我們預期的那樣,由於庫存組合的變化,第二季到第三季出現了成長,我們認為明年還會繼續成長。

  • We've talked about that in the past. We have the higher product costs coming from [indiscernible] inventory in Asia that we're going to sell through next year as well as the mix of inventory we expect to sell next year domestically. So I would point to really those 2. Obviously, we're working hard on the modernization. We did take some costs out of the organization in August, which are going to -- we are about $20 million in total on an annual run rate basis spread throughout the P&L.

    我們以前討論過這個問題。我們較高的產品成本來自亞洲的[無法辨認的]庫存,這些庫存我們將在明年售出,此外還有我們預計明年在國內銷售的庫存組合。所以我主要想指出的是這兩個人。顯然,我們正在努力推進現代化進程。我們在 8 月削減了組織的一些成本,這些成本按年度運行率計算總計約為 2000 萬美元,將分攤到損益表中。

  • So, some of it will be in G&A, some of it will be in other lines as we [indiscernible] that was done in August. So we'll give more guidance out later, but as we work through everything, but I would -- those would be the ones that I would call out.

    所以,一部分會計入一般及行政費用,一部分會計入其他項目,就像我們在八月做的那樣[聽不清楚]。所以之後我們會給出更多指導,但隨著我們逐步解決所有問題,我會——我會特別指出這些問題。

  • Patrick Scholes - Analyst

    Patrick Scholes - Analyst

  • Okay. And then, Jason, just specifically on the rental business, certainly, we saw the profit down this year. And I think earlier in this call, it was noted, higher costs for next year. Is it the expectation that profit next year for the rental business will grow?

    好的。還有,Jason,就租賃業務而言,我們今年的利潤確實有所下降。而且我認為,在本次電話會議的早些時候,已經提到明年的成本會更高。預計明年租賃業務的利潤將會成長嗎?

  • Jason Marino - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Jason Marino - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes, Patrick, we're still working through that. As we talked about, we have a good sense of the unsold maintenance fees going up. Generally, depending on the markets in which that inventory exists, we don't always cover our unsold maintenance fees. As John talked about, some of the markets where we would, but in markets like Orlando and the [desert] where we do have a significant amount of inventory, the ADRs don't cover that. And that's largely due to the reserves that's common in the timeshare business.

    是的,派崔克,我們還在努力解決這個問題。正如我們之前討論過的,我們大致可以確定未售出房屋的維護費將會上漲。一般來說,根據庫存所在的​​市場情況,我們並不總是會支付未售出庫存的維護費用。正如約翰所說,在某些市場我們會這樣做,但在像奧蘭多和[沙漠]這樣的市場,我們確實有大量的庫存,但平均房價並不能覆蓋這些庫存。這主要是由於分時度假產業普遍存在的儲備金問題。

  • So, there could be some headwinds related to that higher unsold maintenance fees, and that's what we're working through here as we kind of finalize the year in the budget. You did see in Q3, a pretty significant decline in the rental business from Q2. A lot of that is seasonality with lower ADRs in that market. Those markets have continued to struggle a little bit. We do expect that to pick up in Q4, but that would be what I would highlight.

    因此,未售出房屋維護費上漲可能會帶來一些不利影響,而這正是我們在最終確定年度預算時正在努力解決的問題。第三季租賃業務較第二季出現了相當大的下滑。很大程度是季節性因素造成的,該市場的平均房價較低。這些市場持續表現略顯疲軟。我們預計第四季情況會有所好轉,但這正是我要重點強調的。

  • Patrick Scholes - Analyst

    Patrick Scholes - Analyst

  • Okay. I look forward to the Investor Day. And if you'd be so kind, just at the Investor Day to talk a little bit more granularity about that last topic of expectations for rental business.

    好的。我期待投資者日的到來。如果您不介意的話,能否在投資者日上更詳細地談談租賃業務預期這個話題?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, we have reached the end of the question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the call back to John Geller for closing remarks.

    女士們、先生們,問答環節到此結束。我想把電話轉回給約翰蓋勒,請他作總結發言。

  • John Geller - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Geller - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you, everyone, for joining our call today. As I said at the outset, we acknowledge that this has been a challenging year. We believe recent targeted changes address some of the root causes of our sales softness in recent periods, particularly in Orlando.

    感謝各位今天參加我們的電話會議。正如我一開始所說,我們承認今年是充滿挑戰的一年。我們相信,近期有針對性的調整已經解決了近期銷售疲軟的一些根本原因,尤其是在奧蘭多地區。

  • These changes, combined with continued progress on the $150 million to $200 million in adjusted EBITDA benefit through our modernization program by the end of 2026 will position us to return to consistent profitable growth. On behalf of all of our associates, owners, members and guests around the world, I want to thank you for your continued interest in our company and hope to see you on vacation soon. Thank you.

    這些變化,加上我們的現代化計劃在 2026 年底前持續推進,預計可帶來 1.5 億美元至 2 億美元的調整後 EBITDA 收益,這將使我們恢復持續盈利增長。我謹代表我們世界各地的所有員工、業主、會員和賓客,感謝您一直以來對我們公司的關注,並希望很快能在假期見到您。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Operator This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time.

    操作員:今天的會議到此結束。您可以在此時斷開線路。