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Operator
Operator
Greetings, and welcome to Marriott Vacations Worldwide first-quarter 2025 earnings call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.
您好,歡迎參加萬豪全球假日酒店 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。(操作員指示)提醒一下,本次會議正在錄音。
I would now like to turn the call over to your host, Mr. Neal Goldner, Vice President, Investor Relations. Thank you. You may begin.
現在我想將電話轉給主持人、投資人關係副總裁尼爾‧戈德納先生。謝謝。你可以開始了。
Neal Goldner - Vice President, Investor Relations
Neal Goldner - Vice President, Investor Relations
Thank you, Melissa, and welcome to the Marriott Vacations Worldwide first-quarter earnings conference call. I'm joined today by John Geller, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Jason Marino, our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.
謝謝你,梅麗莎,歡迎參加萬豪國際假日酒店集團第一季財報電話會議。今天與我一起出席的還有總裁兼執行長約翰蓋勒 (John Geller);以及我們的執行副總裁兼財務長 Jason Marino。
I need to remind everyone that many of our comments today are not historical facts are considered forward-looking statements under Federal Securities laws. These statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties, which could cause future results to differ materially from those expressed in or implied by our comments. Forward-looking statements in the press release as well as comments on this call are effective only when made and will not be updated as actual events unfold.
我需要提醒大家,我們今天的許多評論都不是歷史事實,根據聯邦證券法,它們被視為前瞻性陳述。這些聲明受到許多風險和不確定性的影響,可能導致未來的結果與我們的評論中表達或暗示的結果有重大差異。新聞稿中的前瞻性陳述以及對本次電話會議的評論僅在作出時有效,並且不會隨著實際事件的展開而更新。
Throughout the call, we will make references to non-GAAP financial information. You could find a reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures in the schedules attached to our press release and on our website.
在整個通話過程中,我們將參考非公認會計準則財務資訊。您可以在我們的新聞稿所附時間表和我們的網站上找到非公認會計準則財務指標的對帳表。
In response to investor feedback, we changed the presentation of revenue and profit on pages A7 and page A8 of the press release this quarter to facilitate easier year-over-year comparisons. Importantly, we have not removed any information that we previously provided. In addition, on page A7, we also added a bridge for profit to adjusted EBITDA.
為了回應投資者的回饋,我們本季更改了新聞稿 A7 頁和 A8 頁上的收入和利潤的呈現方式,以便於進行同比比較。重要的是,我們沒有刪除我們之前提供的任何資訊。此外,在 A7 頁,我們也加入了利潤與調整後 EBITDA 之間的橋樑。
With that, it's now my pleasure to turn the call over to John Geller.
現在我很高興將電話轉給約翰蓋勒。
John Geller - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
John Geller - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thanks, Neal. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our first-quarter earnings call. We had a strong beginning to the year, growing first-time buyer sales and adjusted EBITDA, illustrating the power of our leisure-focused business model. We are also making good progress on our modernization initiative to accelerate revenue growth, reduce costs, and enhance operational efficiencies. We remain on track to deliver $150 million to $200 million in run rate benefits by the end of 2026.
謝謝,尼爾。大家早安,感謝大家參加我們的第一季財報電話會議。我們今年開局表現強勁,首次購屋者銷售額和調整後 EBITDA 均有所增長,彰顯了我們以休閒為中心的商業模式的強大力量。我們的現代化計劃也取得了良好進展,以加速收入成長、降低成本並提高營運效率。我們仍有望在 2026 年底前實現 1.5 億至 2 億美元的運行率效益。
We have some of the best brands in the Vacation Ownership industry and continue to see people prioritizing their vacations, running more than a 90% resort occupancy in the first quarter with forward bookings remaining strong. It's also important to remember that our owners prepay for a lifetime of vacations and typically pay their annual maintenance fees by the beginning of the year. So we know they will be vacationing with us.
我們擁有度假所有權行業中的一些最佳品牌,並且繼續看到人們優先考慮他們的假期,第一季度假村入住率超過 90%,且預訂量依然強勁。還需要記住的是,我們的業主會預付終身假期的費用,並且通常會在年初支付年度維護費。所以我們知道他們會和我們一起度假。
In addition, we offer very attractive value proposition and create our own demand. About a quarter of our annual tours come from customers we target with subsidized packages, and we are leveraging data and analytics to improve the quality of our tours.
此外,我們提供非常有吸引力的價值主張並創造我們自己的需求。我們每年約有四分之一的旅行來自我們透過補貼套餐瞄準的客戶,我們正在利用數據和分析來提高我們的旅行品質。
Timeshare also remains a sole product that we sell face-to-face every day with around 80% of our sales happening on site, which helps our business relative to others when customers have concerns about the broader macro environment, and we have several tools to employ when sales soften. For example, we adjusted our strategies, helping drive 6% higher first-time buyer sales, but with owners having fewer plus points coming into the year, we saw fewer owner arrivals this quarter than last year, which resulted in fewer owner tours.
分時度假仍然是我們每天面對面銷售的唯一產品,大約 80% 的銷售都是在現場進行的,當客戶對更廣泛的宏觀環境感到擔憂時,這有助於我們的業務相對於其他業務,並且當銷售疲軟時我們可以採用多種工具。例如,我們調整了策略,幫助首次購屋者的銷售額提高了 6%,但由於業主今年獲得的優勢較少,本季度到店的業主數量比去年同期有所減少,導致業主參觀次數減少。
Some of our modernization initiatives are focused on driving more owner tours as well as higher VPGs. Most importantly, we are seeing owner arrivals improving as we progress through the year, so we feel confident about our updated contract sales guidance.
我們的一些現代化舉措專注於推動更多車主參觀以及提高 VPG。最重要的是,隨著時間的推移,我們看到業主到達率不斷提高,因此我們對更新後的合約銷售指引充滿信心。
We also continue to take actions to drive our package pipeline. For example, we recently launched a new program on marriott.com that combines a villa rental booking with a tour, and we have expanded our call transfer program with Marriott, which we expect to help drive higher tour package sales. We will also be implementing a new process to leverage data, which we expect will drive profit by increasing qualified tours and driving higher VPGs.
我們也將繼續採取行動推動我們的包裝管道。例如,我們最近在 marriott.com 上推出了一個新項目,將別墅租賃預訂與旅遊結合在一起,並且我們還與萬豪合作擴展了我們的呼叫轉移項目,我們期望這將有助於提高旅遊套餐的銷售額。我們還將實施一個利用數據的新流程,我們預計這將透過增加合格旅遊和提高 VPG 來推動利潤成長。
We are making good progress on our comprehensive digital strategy, focusing on increasing product utilization, expanding e-commerce and travel options, and introducing new digital capabilities as we strive to make digital the channel of choice while lowering costs. For example, our resort operations team is expanding the use of an AI-powered phone agent that provides guests quicker responses, freeing up associate capacity.
我們的全面數位策略正在取得良好進展,重點是提高產品利用率、擴大電子商務和旅行選擇,並引入新的數位功能,努力使數位成為首選管道,同時降低成本。例如,我們的度假村營運團隊正在擴大使用人工智慧電話代理,以便為客人提供更快的回應,從而釋放員工的工作能力。
We are also optimizing room cleaning and scheduling processes to standardize housekeeping operations across sites. Nearly 70% of Marriott Vacations points reservations for stays at our resorts are being booked online, a substantial jump from just a few years ago.
我們還優化了房間清潔和調度流程,以標準化各個站點的客房清潔操作。萬豪假日積分預訂我們度假村住宿的近 70% 都是透過網路預訂的,與幾年前相比有了大幅成長。
We continue to expand our use of virtual voice agents to lower our costs at our call centers. In this summer, we plan to launch the ability for our Marriott branded owners to seamlessly book directly into nearly any of Marriott's 9,000 plus hotels around the world using their Vacation Ownership points. All of these initiatives are helping drive higher owner and guest satisfaction while lowering our costs.
我們繼續擴大虛擬語音代理的使用,以降低呼叫中心的成本。今年夏天,我們計劃為萬豪品牌業主推出這項服務,使他們能夠使用他們的度假積分直接無縫預訂全球幾乎所有的萬豪 9,000 多家酒店。所有這些措施都有助於提高業主和客人的滿意度,同時降低我們的成本。
Our forward-looking to KPIs also gives us comfort in our updated projections. Occupancy remained strong and total keys on the books for the summer remains solid. Tours continue to grow and in-house tour capture rates are higher than a year ago. Package sales have remained healthy, and we ended the quarter with nearly 265,000 packages, 35% of which have already been activated to take a tour this year, slightly higher than the same time last year. And loan and maintenance fee delinquencies are better than last year.
我們對 KPI 的前瞻性也讓我們對更新後的預測感到安心。入住率依然保持強勁,夏季預訂總量保持穩定。旅遊人數持續成長,內部旅遊接待率高於一年前。套餐銷售保持健康,本季結束時我們共售出近 265,000 個套餐,其中 35% 已啟動今年的旅遊計劃,略高於去年同期。貸款和維護費拖欠情況比去年有所改善。
In terms of VPG, we made adjustments in March for first-time buyers, and we saw those VPGs grow 10% in April of last year. And we're making promotional adjustments to enhance the owner value proposition to drive owner VPGs. While this is most volatile economic environment I've seen in a while, our consumer remains strong and our forward-looking KPIs remain healthy. We're also focused on our initiatives to improve our tour flow and VPGs. But given the lower contract sales we experienced the start of the year, we thought it was prudent to update our full-year sales guidance.
就 VPG 而言,我們在 3 月針對首次購屋者進行了調整,我們發現這些 VPG 在去年 4 月成長了 10%。我們正在進行促銷調整,以增強業主價值主張,從而推動業主 VPG。雖然這是我一段時間以來見過的最動盪的經濟環境,但我們的消費者依然強勁,我們的前瞻性關鍵績效指標仍然健康。我們也致力於改善旅遊流程和 VPG 的措施。但考慮到今年年初合約銷售額較低,我們認為更新全年銷售預期是明智之舉。
Looking out longer-term, our business remains on solid footing with strong margins, positive free cash flow, a product that resonates with today's consumer, long-term growth opportunities, and the bulk of the benefits from our modernization program still ahead of us. We generate around 40% of our adjusted EBITDA contribution from very high margin, recurring revenue streams, which makes our results more consistent.
從長遠來看,我們的業務基礎仍然穩固,利潤率高,自由現金流為正,產品能夠引起當今消費者的共鳴,擁有長期的成長機會,而且我們的現代化計劃仍將為我們帶來大量收益。我們調整後的 EBITDA 貢獻的約 40% 來自利潤率極高的經常性收入流,這使我們的業績更加穩定。
Meanwhile, in the short-term, we are focusing on what we can control, including providing our owners and guests great vacation experiences, reducing our costs, executing on our modernization program and continuing to invest for the long-term.
同時,在短期內,我們專注於我們能夠控制的事情,包括為我們的業主和客人提供美好的度假體驗、降低成本、執行我們的現代化計劃以及繼續長期投資。
With that, I'll turn it over to Jason to discuss our results in some more detail.
接下來,我會把主題交給 Jason 來更詳細地討論我們的結果。
Jason Marino - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Jason Marino - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Thanks, John. Today, I'm going to review our first-quarter results, our balance sheet and liquidity position, our cost savings and efficiencies initiatives, and our outlook for the year.
謝謝,約翰。今天,我將回顧我們的第一季業績、資產負債表和流動性狀況、成本節約和效率舉措以及我們對今年的展望。
Total company revenue increased year over year, enabling us to deliver 3% higher adjusted EBITDA. In our development business, tours increased 1.5% and VPG was 4%, with half of the decline due to a higher mix of first-time buyer sales, while owner sales declined year over year, driven by lower arrivals and slightly lower VPG. As a result, total company contract sales declined 2% compared to the prior year.
公司總收入年增,使我們的調整後 EBITDA 成長了 3%。在我們的開發業務中,旅遊量增長了 1.5%,VPG 為 4%,其中一半的下降是由於首次購房者銷售額的增加,而業主銷售額則同比下降,原因是到訪人數減少和 VPG 略有下降。因此,公司合約銷售總額與前一年相比下降了 2%。
First-time buyer sales increased 6% year over year, which is good for the long-term health of the system, though it negatively impacted our reported VPG this quarter.
首次購屋者的銷售額年增 6%,這對系統的長期健康有利,儘管它對我們本季報告的 VPG 產生了負面影響。
Our sales reserve was 12% of contract sales in the quarter, in line with our expectations and prior guidance. As you might expect, we have been very focused on delinquencies given the decline in consumer confidence, but so far, we've not seen any softness in our loan book. In fact, delinquencies at the end of the quarter improved 60 basis points on a year-over-year basis and were lower again in April.
我們的銷售儲備佔本季合約銷售額的 12%,符合我們的預期和先前的指導。正如您所料,由於消費者信心下降,我們一直非常關注拖欠情況,但到目前為止,我們還沒有看到貸款帳簿出現任何疲軟。事實上,本季末的拖欠率比去年同期改善了 60 個基點,並且 4 月再次下降。
Development profit increased 4% compared to the prior year, with development margin increasing 70 basis points. As expected, total company rental profit declined 10% year over year to $46 million, with higher rental occupancy and increased transient revenue offset by higher unsold maintenance fees and other variable costs.
開發利潤比上年成長4%,開發利潤率增加70個基點。正如預期的那樣,公司總租賃利潤年減 10% 至 4,600 萬美元,租賃入住率的提高和臨時收入的增加被未售出的維護費和其他變動成本的增加所抵消。
Management exchange profit increased 4% to $98 million, with increased revenue in our Vacation Ownership segment, partially offset by lower exchange revenue at Interval. Financing profit increased 6%, driven by higher interest income, partially offset by slightly higher consumer financing interest expense. And finally, corporate G&A decreased 3% compared to last year. As a result, total company adjusted EBITDA increased 3% to $192 million and margins remained strong at 23%.
管理交換利潤成長 4% 至 9,800 萬美元,其中度假所有權部門收入增加,但被 Interval 交換收入下降部分抵銷。融資利潤成長 6%,主要由於利息收入增加,但被消費者融資利息支出略微增加所部分抵銷。最後,企業一般及行政開支與去年相比下降了 3%。因此,該公司調整後的 EBITDA 總額成長 3% 至 1.92 億美元,利潤率仍維持在 23% 的強勁水準。
Moving to the balance sheet. We ended the quarter with $865 million in liquidity and no corporate debt maturities until early 2026. Our leverage was 4.1 times at the end of the quarter, which we expect to reduce longer time to organic growth and benefits from our modernization initiative once the upfront investment spending normalizes.
轉到資產負債表。本季末,我們的流動資金為 8.65 億美元,並且直到 2026 年初都沒有公司債務到期。本季末我們的槓桿率為 4.1 倍,我們預計,一旦前期投資支出恢復正常,我們的現代化計畫將縮短實現有機成長所需的時間並帶來好處。
First lien net leverage for covenant purposes was only 1.1 times at the end of the quarter, well below our 3.5 times requirement. We amended our revolving credit facility in March, upsizing it to $800 million and reducing the interest rate by 25 basis points. And with our 0% convertible debt maturing in January next year, we added a $450 million delayed draw term loan facility, enabling us to take advantage of the 0% interest rate for longer while providing us optionality as we look to refinance it later this year.
截至本季末,用於契約目的的第一留置權淨槓桿比率僅為 1.1 倍,遠低於我們的 3.5 倍要求。我們在三月修改了循環信貸額度,將其規模增加到 8 億美元,並將利率降低了 25 個基點。由於我們的 0% 可轉換債務將於明年 1 月到期,我們增加了 4.5 億美元的延期提取定期貸款,這使我們能夠更長時間地享受 0% 利率,同時為我們提供選擇權,以便我們在今年晚些時候進行再融資。
We returned $91 million in cash to shareholders in the first quarter. With our shares being materially undervalued, we increased our share buybacks, buying back 1.4% of our outstanding shares in the quarter. We also paid two dividends for $55 million in total. And this week, we closed on our first securitization of the year, issuing $450 million in ABS debt and a blended rate of 5.16% and a 98% advance rate.
我們在第一季向股東返還了 9,100 萬美元現金。由於我們的股價被嚴重低估,我們增加了股票回購,本季回購了 1.4% 的流通股。我們還支付了兩次股息,總額為 5500 萬美元。本週,我們完成了今年的首次證券化,發行了 4.5 億美元的 ABS 債務,混合利率為 5.16%,預付利率為 98%。
Looking forward, we are updating our full-year contract sales guidance with tours still expected to grow in the low-single digits, consistent with what we've seen this year, but for VPG to decline. And while we feel confident with the midpoint of our updated contract sales range, VPG would have to improve to hit the high end, which our initiatives are designed to do. We continue to expect total company rental profit to decline around $15 million this year and now expect corporate G&A to be flat to down slightly.
展望未來,我們正在更新全年合約銷售指引,預計旅遊收入仍將以低個位數成長,與我們今年看到的情況一致,但 VPG 將會下降。雖然我們對更新後的合約銷售範圍的中間值充滿信心,但 VPG 必須改進才能達到高端,而這正是我們計劃要實現的目標。我們仍預計今年公司總租金利潤將下降約 1,500 萬美元,目前預計公司一般及行政開支將持平或略有下降。
We are making great progress on our modernization. And we are able to accelerate some of our initiatives, increasing this year's savings to $35 million from $15 million to $25 million previously. We've also adjusted our inventory mix and now expect this year's product cost increase to be more modest than we originally planned. We're also actively reducing costs elsewhere.
我們的現代化建設正在取得巨大進步。我們也能夠加快一些舉措,將今年的儲蓄額從先前的 1,500 萬美元到 2,500 萬美元增加到 3,500 萬美元。我們還調整了庫存組合,預計今年的產品成本增幅將比我們最初計劃的要小。我們也在積極降低其他方面的成本。
In total, we now expect these changes to generate an incremental $40 million to $50 million in savings this year. As a result, we reaffirmed our adjusted EBITDA guidance for the year. We still expect to drive $75 million to $100 million of annual run rate cost savings and efficiencies over the next two years from our modernization initiative. These savings will primarily come from updating IT systems, increasing automation, lowering procurement costs, and reducing overhead costs as we continue to optimize our organizational structure.
總的來說,我們預計這些變化將在今年帶來 4,000 萬至 5,000 萬美元的增量節省。因此,我們重申了本年度調整後的 EBITDA 指引。我們仍預計,未來兩年內,我們的現代化計畫將帶來每年 7,500 萬至 1 億美元的年度成本節約和效率提升。這些節省主要來自於更新 IT 系統、提高自動化程度、降低採購成本以及減少管理費用,因為我們會繼續優化組織結構。
We also expect to generate $75 million to $100 million of adjusted EBITDA benefits from revenue initiatives that either improve VPGs, increase tours, increase occupancy, or drive higher ADRs, some of which John already discussed.
我們還希望透過提高 VPG、增加旅遊量、增加入住率或提高 ADR 的收入計劃產生 7500 萬至 1 億美元的調整後 EBITDA 收益,其中一些 John 已經討論過了。
Moving to cash flow, we expect that our adjusted free cash flow to be in the $270 million to $330 million range this year, excluding roughly $100 million of one-time cash costs related to our modernization initiatives. We also have $150 million to $200 million of non-core assets we plan to dispose of over the next few years, including the Sheraton Kaua'i Resort and a retail parcel in Waikiki.
談到現金流,我們預計今年調整後的自由現金流將在 2.7 億美元至 3.3 億美元之間,不包括與我們的現代化計畫相關的約 1 億美元的一次性現金成本。我們還計劃在未來幾年內出售價值 1.5 億至 2 億美元的非核心資產,包括喜來登考艾島度假村和威基基的零售地塊。
So to summarize, we had a strong first quarter despite the challenging operating environment, driving higher year-over-year adjusted EBITDA. Our team also did a great job providing memorable vacations for our owners, members, and other guests. Despite the external noise, our consumer remains strong. We're driving tour growth, occupancy remains high, and rental rates are holding up. We are also implementing a number of the revenue initiatives designed to improve VPG.
總而言之,儘管經營環境充滿挑戰,但我們第一季業績表現強勁,調整後 EBITDA 年成長。我們的團隊也出色地為業主、會員和其他客人提供了難忘的假期。儘管外部噪音不斷,我們的消費者依然強勁。我們正在推動旅遊業的成長,入住率仍然很高,租賃率也保持穩定。我們也正在實施一系列旨在提高 VPG 的收入措施。
It's times like this when I think the Vacation Ownership industry really shines with a substantial portion of our profit and cash flow coming from high-margin recurring revenue sources, as well as more sales coming from existing owners, preview packages, and on-site guests. And our product continues to be a great value, enabling people the ability to lock in a lifetime of family vacations at today's prices. We plan to participate in the Morgan Stanley, Stifel, and Jefferies conferences in June, and we hope to see some of you there. And as always, our IR team is only a phone call or an e-mail away.
正是在這樣的時刻,我認為度假所有權行業才真正閃耀光芒,我們的利潤和現金流很大一部分來自高利潤的經常性收入來源,而更多的銷售額則來自現有業主、預覽套餐和現場客人。我們的產品仍然具有巨大的價值,使人們能夠以今天的價格鎖定一生的家庭度假。我們計劃參加 6 月的摩根士丹利、Stifel 和 Jefferies 會議,希望在那裡見到你們。像往常一樣,只需一個電話或一封電子郵件即可聯繫我們的 IR 團隊。
With that, we'll be happy to answer your questions.
我們將很樂意回答您的問題。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Ben Chaiken, Mizuho Securities.
(操作員指示)瑞穗證券的 Ben Chaiken。
Ben Chaiken - Analyst
Ben Chaiken - Analyst
Can you talk about contract sales in March or April to the extent you have that handy? I guess from the 1Q results, based on how you started the quarter, it looks like contract sales were down around 4% in March. Is that directionally correct? And then what are your assumptions for the remainder of the year?
您能談談三月或四月的合約銷售情況嗎?我想從第一季的結果來看,根據本季的開始情況,3 月的合約銷售額似乎下降了約 4%。這個方向正確嗎?那麼,您對今年剩餘時間的預測是什麼?
John Geller - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
John Geller - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes, that's correct, about 4% in March. And we saw, similar in April, as we talked about with some of the first-time buyer initiatives we've put into place. The good news in April was we saw VPGs and contract sales up for first-time buyers in April.
是的,沒錯,3 月大約是 4%。我們在四月也看到了類似的情況,正如我們談到的,我們已經實施了一些首次購房者計劃。四月份的好消息是,我們看到四月份首次購房者的 VPG 和合約銷售額有所上升。
With owners, yes, VPGs were down a little bit, but very manageable. And it was more tour flow. As I talked about, we had slightly less owner arrivals in April, but we see that ramping up as we go through the year. So that we'll get that tour flow going from a first-time buyer. And owners are buying. And we are going to adjust some of the promotions here on the owner side to offset some of the lower VPGs that we had seen more recently.
對於業主來說,是的,VPG 有所下降,但還是可以控制的。而且旅遊流量也更大了。正如我所說的,四月份抵達的業主數量略有減少,但隨著一年的推進,我們看到這一數字正在上升。這樣我們就可以從首次購買者那裡獲得旅遊流量。業主們正在購買。我們將調整業主方的部分促銷活動,以抵消我們最近看到的一些較低的 VPG。
Ben Chaiken - Analyst
Ben Chaiken - Analyst
Got it. And then obviously you had held EBITDA guide for the full year, and in some of the prepared remarks, you talked about some of the cost saves that you had. I think you said $15 million to $25 million of cost saves in the year that were part of the original plan. I guess then also maybe at a lower assumption for cost of product, maybe we could hit on that. What is driving that?
知道了。然後顯然你已經掌握了全年的 EBITDA 指南,並且在一些準備好的評論中,你談到了你所節省的一些成本。我認為您說過,今年將節省 1500 萬至 2500 萬美元的成本,這是原計劃的一部分。我想也許在產品成本假設較低的情況下,我們也許可以實現這一點。是什麼原因導致的呢?
And then I believe there was a third piece thrown in there, which was another $35 million of efficiencies. If I caught that right, could you maybe dive into that $35 million? Is that also cost-related, is that revenue-related? Thanks.
然後我相信還有第三部分,那就是另外 3500 萬美元的效率。如果我理解正確的話,你也許可以投入這 3500 萬美元嗎?這也與成本有關嗎?與收入有關嗎?謝謝。
John Geller - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
John Geller - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
The $15 million to $25 million in the year savings from the modernization was what we said last time. We think that will now be closer to $35 million of in-year savings. And then to your question, which you kind of answered, product cost is we expect to be better than we originally anticipate.
我們上次說過,透過現代化改造,每年可以節省 1500 萬到 2500 萬美元。我們認為,今年的節省金額將接近 3,500 萬美元。然後回答您的問題,您已經回答過了,我們預計產品成本會比我們最初預期的要好。
I'll have Jason talk a little bit about that.
我會讓傑森稍微談論一下這個。
Jason Marino - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Jason Marino - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yes, Ben, the product cost is really driven by some of the actions we took to adjust the mix of the inventory that we're selling, as well as some of the additional lower cost repurchases that we're doing in the year are flowing through. So that's really how we're able to drive the product cost a little bit lower than our initial expectations this year.
是的,本,產品成本實際上是由我們為調整所銷售庫存組合而採取的一些措施以及我們今年進行的一些額外的低成本回購所驅動的。所以這就是我們今年能夠將產品成本略低於最初預期的原因。
Ben Chaiken - Analyst
Ben Chaiken - Analyst
Got it. And maybe just the third one is (multiple speakers) --
知道了。也許第三個是(多位發言者)——
Jason Marino - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Jason Marino - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
There isn't another $35 million that you called out by (multiple speakers)
你所說的 3500 萬美元(多位發言者)
John Geller - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
John Geller - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
It's the $35 million plus the additional product cost stuff that gets you closer to the $40 million to $50 million.
3,500 萬美元加上額外的產品成本,總價值就接近 4,000 萬到 5,000 萬美元。
Ben Chaiken - Analyst
Ben Chaiken - Analyst
Yeah. Totally understood. Appreciate it. And then on the contract sales side, just revisiting that. Is there anything outside of the consumer getting better that you guys are doing internally that would accelerate revenue? And if so, maybe what are some of the items that would still help in the year?
是的。完全理解。非常感謝。然後在合約銷售方面,我們再重新審視一下。除了改善消費者體驗之外,你們內部還做了哪些可以增加收入的事情?如果是這樣,那麼哪些東西可能在這一年仍然有幫助?
John Geller - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
John Geller - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
No, we're focused on continuing to drive tour flow with different initiatives and incentives there. And then after sales table, continuing to enhance the offer, drive the value proposition from a consumer standpoint. And as we do that, that should help with VPGs as well.
不,我們專注於透過不同的舉措和激勵措施繼續推動旅遊流量。然後是售後服務表,繼續增強報價,從消費者的角度推動價值主張。當我們這樣做時,這也應該對 VPG 有所幫助。
So teams are super focused. Regardless of the broader economic turmoil and things that we're seeing, we've got these different offerings and initiatives were focused on to continue to drive VPG improvement.
所以團隊非常專注。無論我們看到什麼樣的經濟動盪和情況,我們都會提供不同的產品和舉措,並致力於繼續推動 VPG 的改進。
Operator
Operator
Patrick Scholes, Truist Securities.
帕特里克·斯科爾斯(Patrick Scholes),Truist Securities。
Patrick Scholes - Analyst
Patrick Scholes - Analyst
On the prepared remarks, you had noted adjusting inventory mix. Can you explain a little bit of what exactly that means and how you plan to go about that? Thank you.
在準備好的評論中,您已經提到調整庫存組合。您能否稍微解釋一下這到底意味著什麼以及您計劃如何實現這一目標?謝謝。
Jason Marino - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Jason Marino - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
As we just talked about, it's a combination of lower cost repurchases that are coming in this year, as well as some of the inventory that we have. We can modulate to sell different products, whether it's in Asia or the US. Our points products versus some of the newer inventory and things like that. So it's really changing the mix of what we're selling.
正如我們剛才談到的,這是今年低成本回購和我們現有的部分庫存的結合。我們可以調整以銷售不同的產品,無論是在亞洲還是美國。我們的積分產品與一些較新的庫存等產品相比。所以它確實改變了我們銷售的產品組合。
Everyone's got the same usage, right, through the Abound program. So to the customer, it's not really transparent, but we're allowed to -- we modulate that to drive the cost down a little bit since we had cheaper inventory available to sell.
透過 Abound 程序,每個人都有相同的用途,對吧。因此對於客戶來說,這並不是真正透明的,但我們可以進行調整——我們對其進行調整以稍微降低成本,因為我們有更便宜的庫存可供出售。
John Geller - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
John Geller - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
And Patrick, that's something we always do. We're always looking to get the best product costs, right? And so, we're focused on that. We've been focused on that for the last 10 years, right, in terms of driving better product costs.
派崔克,我們一直都是這麼做的。我們總是希望獲得最佳的產品成本,對嗎?因此,我們專注於此。過去 10 年來,我們致力於降低產品成本。
Patrick Scholes - Analyst
Patrick Scholes - Analyst
Understood. Just a couple of follow-up questions here. How do you feel about availability of new inventory at this point? I know if we go back a year or two, I believe it was the Westin brand had been a bit light on inventory. How are you feeling about the availability of product across all of your brands -- new products today? Thank you.
明白了。這裡僅有幾個後續問題。您覺得目前新庫存的供應如何?我知道如果我們回顧一兩年前,我相信威斯汀品牌的庫存有點少。您對於所有品牌的新產品的供應情況感覺如何?謝謝。
John Geller - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
John Geller - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
We're in a good position on inventory. As we talked about a few years ago, we did shift a lot of our sales centers to the Marriott Vacation Points product, right, regardless of brands. But we still have inventory in the other trusts.
我們的庫存狀況良好。正如我們幾年前談到的,我們確實將許多銷售中心轉移到萬豪度假積分產品,無論品牌為何。但我們在其他信託仍有庫存。
And we continue to do upgrades and buybacks and things like that of some of the legacy Westin and Sheraton and resell the MVCD. So there's inventory in all the products, so we're able to still get the owner what they want to buy.
我們繼續對一些傳統的威斯汀和喜來登酒店進行升級和回購等,並轉售 MVCD。所有產品都有庫存,所以我們仍然能夠為業主提供他們想要購買的產品。
Patrick Scholes - Analyst
Patrick Scholes - Analyst
Okay. So you feel comfortable on that. Shifting now to buybacks, but in another variety, that being share repurchase buybacks, looks like you bought back about 1% in the quarter, which is certainly a step up. I know you had been -- the priority had been to get the balance sheet back closer to target.
好的。所以你對此感到很舒服。現在轉向回購,但另一種形式是股票回購,看起來你在本季度回購了約 1%,這無疑是一個進步。我知道你的首要任務是讓資產負債表更接近目標。
How do you think about that for the rest of the year here? Will you continue to see modest, I would call, modest amounts of share repurchases going forward? How should we think about that? What's your expectation in compare and contrasting -- getting back to target leverage as well? Thank you.
您覺得今年剩下的時間會是怎樣?您是否會繼續看到未來適度的(我稱之為適度的)股票回購?我們該如何看待這個問題?您在比較和對比中有何期望——也希望恢復到目標槓桿率?謝謝。
Jason Marino - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Jason Marino - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yes, I think, Patrick, that's right. I mean, obviously, as we saw that the share prices decline here in March and then obviously continue in April, we, as we said in the prepared remarks, we think it's materially undervalued for what we're doing with the business in the long-term prospects of growth as well as cash flow generation. So, obviously, we're comfortable operating in this leverage.
是的,我認為,派崔克,沒錯。我的意思是,顯然,正如我們看到的,股價在三月下跌,然後在四月份繼續下跌,正如我們在準備好的評論中所說的那樣,我們認為,對於我們在長期增長前景和現金流產生方面所做的業務而言,股價被嚴重低估了。因此,顯然,我們樂意在這種槓桿下進行運作。
We've talked about that for a few quarters now up at that 4 times area. Long-term, the goal is still to get that leverage closer to 3 times. But the opportunity here as the shares, in our opinion, are cheap, and so we're going to have to balance all of those capital priorities as we move forward.
我們已經討論了幾個季度了,都是 4 倍的區間。長期來看,目標仍是讓槓桿率接近3倍。但我們認為,這裡的機會是股票價格便宜,因此,在未來的發展中,我們必須平衡所有這些資本優先事項。
Operator
Operator
David Katz, Jefferies.
傑富瑞的戴維·卡茨。
David Katz - Analyst
David Katz - Analyst
So a lot from the remarks I wanted to touch on. You mentioned that you're getting a little better tour flow activation. I'm just curious what you may be doing to drive that or is there something different about the packages?
我想談很多評論內容。您提到您獲得了更好的旅遊流程啟動。我只是好奇你會做什麼來推動這一點,或者這些包裹有什麼不同嗎?
And I would ask the same question. I think Jason mentioned some less expensive acquisitions, I think, was the comment. I'm just curious if you're doing something to drive that or it's just happening more organically.
我也會問同樣的問題。我認為傑森提到了一些較便宜的收購,我認為,這就是他的評論。我只是好奇您是否正在做些什麼來推動這一點,或者它只是更自然地發生。
John Geller - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
John Geller - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
No, it's a lot of the data and analytics work. We continue to leverage targeting the right people that are going to be the best tours, have the highest propensity to buy. And then even evaluating our packages after they're sold to prioritize and how we rank the different packages and likelihood to buy. So that's been an ongoing focus.
不,這需要大量的數據和分析工作。我們將繼續瞄準最合適的人群,為他們提供最好的旅遊服務,讓他們有最高的購買傾向。然後甚至在套餐售出後對其進行評估,以確定優先順序以及如何對不同套餐和購買可能性進行排名。所以這一直是我們關注的焦點。
We can continue to get better at that and we're rolling out some additional data and analytics to continue to improve. Like we've always said, it's making that right offer to the right person at the right time. And that's where having the right data and being able to do that to improve the package pipeline and who we're making those offers to.
我們可以繼續在這方面做得更好,並且我們正在推出一些額外的數據和分析來繼續改進。就像我們一直說的那樣,就是在正確的時間向正確的人提出正確的報價。這就是擁有正確數據並能夠做到這一點以改善包裹管道以及我們向誰提供這些服務的地方。
And then on Jason (multiple speakers) --
然後是傑森(多位發言者)——
Jason Marino - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Jason Marino - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
And then, David, on the inventory side, it's really we've taken a fresh look at some of our repurchase programs that we have from owners and we're changing some of the cost of that as we operate it to the owner. So still giving owners an off-ramp but we're modulating the prices on how we buy some of that inventory back to drive that cost lower.
然後,大衛,在庫存方面,我們確實重新審視了我們從業主那裡獲得的一些回購計劃,並且在向業主實施回購計劃時,我們正在改變其中的一些成本。因此,我們仍然為業主提供出口,但我們正在調整回購部分庫存的價格,以降低成本。
David Katz - Analyst
David Katz - Analyst
Understood. And if I can just ask about the comment about non-core asset sales. I know you've done some of that in the past. This seems to be incremental or new. Would you mind just talking about that process and what's being sold and how we got there?
明白了。我是否可以問一下關於非核心資產出售的評論。我知道你過去做過一些這樣的事。這似乎是漸進的或新的。您介意談談這個過程、銷售的產品以及我們是如何實現這一目標的嗎?
John Geller - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
John Geller - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
We've got a number of assets. The two of the larger ones, which Jason mentioned, is in the ILG acquisition. We got a hotel in Hawaii, beautiful hotel, Sheraton. There are a lot of reasons. We've been -- it's just contractually working through getting that positioned to sell. And so we're going to get that on the market, but that was one that we had always identified as an excess asset, if you will, from that ILG acquisition.
我們擁有大量資產。Jason 提到的兩個較大的公司是 ILG 收購的。我們在夏威夷訂了一家飯店,很漂亮的飯店,喜來登。原因有很多。我們一直在 — — 只是按照合約進行工作,以便將其定位為銷售。因此,我們將把它推向市場,但從 ILG 收購開始,我們就一直認為它是多餘的資產。
And then the other big one is in Waikiki, the resort that we opened last year. First couple of floors were retail. And so we've got the option, there's no reason to own the retail and that's another big disposition that we're focused on right now. And then there's just a handful of other things that we've got in the acquisitions that are smaller that we are positioning and can get those out to the market as well.
另一個大型度假村位於威基基,是我們去年開幕的度假村。前幾層是零售店。因此,我們有選擇,沒有理由擁有零售,這是我們現在關注的另一個重大部署。此外,我們也透過收購獲得了一些規模較小的產品,這些產品我們正在定位,也可以將它們推向市場。
Operator
Operator
Stephen Grambling, Morgan Stanley.
摩根士丹利的史蒂芬‧格蘭布林。
Stephen Grambling - Analyst
Stephen Grambling - Analyst
I may have missed this in the remarks or somewhere in the release. But given all the focus on new owners, any details on where owner growth has been trending? And is there any targets in terms of where you think owner growth should be?
我可能在評論中或發布的某處錯過了這一點。但考慮到所有焦點都集中在新業主身上,有沒有關於業主成長趨勢的詳細資訊?您認為業主成長應該達到什麼目標嗎?
John Geller - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
John Geller - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Just so I understand you, when you say where owner growth should be in terms of -- I just want to make sure I understand (multiple speakers) --
為了讓我能理解你,當你說業主成長應該在哪裡時——我只是想確保我理解(多位發言者)——
Stephen Grambling - Analyst
Stephen Grambling - Analyst
It's the mix of the new versus the existing. How much new do you need to add to basically offset any attrition, natural attrition?
這是新事物與現有事物的混合。您需要增加多少新人員才能從根本上抵消任何損耗、自然損耗?
John Geller - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
John Geller - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes we're continuing, as we said, to drive that mix. We've done it the last couple of quarters. I expect us to continue to do it. Get it above that 35%, 40% would be awesome, right? The more first-time buyers, as we've always talked about for the long-term health of the system, is very important. So we don't have a set number.
是的,正如我們所說的,我們將繼續推動這種組合。過去幾個季度我們已經這樣做了。我希望我們繼續這樣做。如果能超過 35% 或 40% 就太棒了,對吧?正如我們一直所說的,首次購屋者越多,對於系統的長期健康就越重要。所以我們沒有一個固定的數字。
We're going to continue to do the best to drive the mix towards first-time buyers, but also drive our development margin. As you know, VPGs for first-time buyers are less than what they are on owner so it's a higher customer acquisition cost, if you think about it that way. But it's the right thing to do. And we're going to continue to focus in on that.
我們將繼續盡最大努力吸引首次購屋者,同時也提高我們的開發利潤率。如您所知,首次購買者的 VPG 低於車主,因此,如果您這樣想的話,客戶獲取成本更高。但這是正確的做法。我們將繼續關注這一點。
David Katz - Analyst
David Katz - Analyst
And so just to be clear, so as we think about the guidance for the rest of the year, you're still anticipating basically the new owner growth to stay in that higher range, but also accelerate VPGs based on some of the initiatives that you're talking to? That's the balance?
因此,需要明確的是,當我們考慮今年剩餘時間的指導時,您仍然預計新業主成長基本上會保持在較高範圍內,但也會根據您正在談論的一些舉措加速 VPG 的成長?這就是平衡嗎?
John Geller - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
John Geller - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
That's right.
這是正確的。
Jason Marino - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Jason Marino - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
(multiple speakers) even in our prepared remarks, we're not assuming huge VPG growth on a year-over-year basis from here, right? So we did assume VPG was down for the rest of the year at the midpoint. At the higher end, it's probably closer to flat to up a little bit, right?
(多位發言者)即使在我們準備好的發言中,我們也不會假設從現在開始 VPG 會比去年同期大幅增長,對嗎?因此,我們確實假設 VPG 在年中剩餘時間內會下降。在較高端,它可能更接近持平或略微上漲,對嗎?
David Katz - Analyst
David Katz - Analyst
And so just to be clear, would your net of attrition owner growth be flat at that pace, or would it still be slightly down?
因此,需要明確的是,您的淨流失業主成長率會以這種速度持平嗎,還是會略有下降?
John Geller - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
John Geller - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
It should be up, net-net.
它應該已經啟動了,網路。
Operator
Operator
Shaun Kelley, Bank of America.
美國銀行的肖恩凱利 (Shaun Kelley)。
Shaun Kelley - Analyst
Shaun Kelley - Analyst
Just two for me. So first off, just to finish up on Stephen's point, just to level set for contract sales for the year, the change in the contract sales, roughly $100 million at the midpoint, is that just higher first-time buyer mix, lower VPG? Is that the assumption that we should now be using?
對我來說只要兩個。首先,為了完成 Stephen 的觀點,只是為了確定今年的合約銷售額水平,合約銷售額的變化,中間值約為 1 億美元,這是否只是首次購買者組合較高,而 VPG 較低?這是我們現在應該使用的假設嗎?
John Geller - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
John Geller - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
I mean, that's a component of it, right. It's really more also, as we talked about just how we started the year for the first three or four months and being down a little bit. So net-net, to get to the midpoint or to the higher, we're going to drive higher VPGs, increase more owner sales than we did in the first quarter, right?
我的意思是,這是其中的一個組成部分,對吧。正如我們所討論的,今年頭三、四個月我們的表現有些低迷。因此,為了達到中間點或更高水平,我們將推動更高的 VPG,增加比第一季更多的業主銷售額,對嗎?
That's in the mix as well. But the overall mix of first-time buyers to owners, right? I expect that to continue to remain higher as we got a strong package pipeline. We're seeing good VPGs from owners, which is typically where you would see softness. So we're continuing to drive that first-time buyer.
這也是其中之一。但整體來說,首次購屋者和業主的比例是這樣的,對嗎?由於我們擁有強大的一攬子計劃,我預計這一數字將繼續保持在較高水平。我們看到業主的 VPG 表現良好,這通常是您會看到疲軟的地方。因此,我們將繼續推動首次購屋者。
Shaun Kelley - Analyst
Shaun Kelley - Analyst
Great. And then just going back to the inventory point, I just wanted to be crystal clear on it. So what you're doing is are you just paying owners who are -- when you're recycling inventory and buying back, are you just paying them less? And then that is effectively lowering your weighted average product costs?
偉大的。然後回到庫存點,我只是想清楚地了解這一點。那麼,您所做的就是,當您回收庫存併回購時,您是否只是向所有者支付了較少的費用?那麼這是否有效地降低了您的加權平均產品成本?
And I'm just trying to understand, relative to the size of your inventory, how quickly does that flow through? It seems like it would be very fast for you to be able to make a change in a relatively short period of time that would affect all of your weighted average product costs. I just don't quite understand the mechanics.
我只是想了解,相對於您的庫存規模,庫存流動速度有多快?看起來您能夠在相對較短的時間內做出影響所有加權平均產品成本的更改,這似乎非常快。我只是不太明白其中的原理。
Jason Marino - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Jason Marino - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yes, that's like -- that's a component of it. And it's also, as we talked about, shifting the mix of what we're selling as well. And so it's kind of two-fold.
是的,這就像——這是它的一個組成部分。而且,正如我們所談到的,這也改變了我們銷售產品的結構。所以它有雙重意義。
Operator
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes our question-and-answer session. I'll turn the floor back to Mr. Geller for any final comments.
女士們、先生們,我們的問答環節到此結束。我將把發言權交還給蓋勒先生,請他發表最後的評論。
John Geller - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
John Geller - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thank you, everyone, for joining our call today. We have a solid start to the year with adjusted EBITDA exceeding our expectations and first-time buyer contract sales growing 6%. We're also making good progress on our modernization initiative, which we expect to generate $150 million to $200 million of adjusted EBITDA benefit by the end of 2026 on a run-rate basis.
感謝大家今天參加我們的電話會議。我們今年開局良好,調整後的 EBITDA 超出了我們的預期,首次購房者合約銷售額增長了 6%。我們的現代化計劃也取得了良好進展,預計到 2026 年底,該計劃將產生 1.5 億至 2 億美元的調整後 EBITDA 收益(按運行率計算)。
Our business modernization is running ahead of plan, and we have accelerated initiatives to drive more of the savings into the current year. We are also focused on cash flow and optimizing inventory, as well as corporate CapEx spending.
我們的業務現代化進程正在提前進行,我們已經加快了計劃,以便在今年實現更多的節省。我們也關注現金流和優化庫存以及企業資本支出。
And while the current economic environment could stay around for a while, our business and customers remains strong and 40% of our adjusted EBITDA contribution comes from sticky recurring revenue sources, high margins, positive free cash flow, and strong owner satisfaction scores.
儘管當前的經濟環境可能會持續一段時間,但我們的業務和客戶仍然強勁,40% 的調整後 EBITDA 貢獻來自固定的經常性收入來源、高利潤率、正的自由現金流和強大的業主滿意度得分。
On behalf of all of our associates, owners, members, and customers around the world, I thank you for your continued interest in the company, and I hope to see on vacation soon. Thank you.
我代表我們在世界各地的所有同事、業主、會員和客戶,感謝您對公司的持續關注,並希望很快能在假期中與您相見。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.
謝謝。今天的會議到此結束。現在您可以斷開線路。感謝您的參與。