Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corp (VAC) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Marriott Vacations Worldwide First Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Mr. Neal Goldner, Vice President, Investor Relations for Marriott Vacations Worldwide.

大家好，歡迎來到萬豪度假全球 2023 年第一季度財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）提醒一下，正在錄製此會議。我現在想把會議轉交給你的東道主，萬豪假期全球投資者關係副總裁 Neal Goldner 先生。

Thank you. You may begin.

謝謝。你可以開始了。

Thank you, Melissa, and welcome to the Marriott Vacations Worldwide First Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. I am joined today by John Geller, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Tony Terry, our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝你，梅麗莎，歡迎參加萬豪度假全球 2023 年第一季度收益電話會議。今天，總裁兼首席執行官約翰·蓋勒 (John Geller) 加入了我的行列；和我們的執行副總裁兼首席財務官 Tony Terry。

I need to remind everyone that many of our comments today are not historical facts and are considered forward-looking statements under federal securities laws. These statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties as described in our SEC filings, which could cause future results to differ materially from those expressed in or implied by our comments.

我需要提醒大家，我們今天的許多評論都不是歷史事實，根據聯邦證券法被視為前瞻性陳述。這些陳述受到我們提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中所述的眾多風險和不確定性的影響，這可能導致未來的結果與我們的評論中表達或暗示的結果存在重大差異。

Forward-looking statements in the press release that we issued last night as well as our comments on this call are effective only when made and will not be updated as actual events unfold. Throughout the call, we will make references to non-GAAP financial information. You can find a reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures referred to in our remarks in the schedules attached to our press release as well as our Investor Relations page of our website at ir.mbwc.com.

我們昨晚發布的新聞稿中的前瞻性陳述以及我們對此次電話會議的評論僅在做出時有效，不會隨著實際事件的展開而更新。在整個電話會議中，我們將參考非 GAAP 財務信息。您可以在我們的新聞稿所附的時間表以及我們網站 ir.mbwc.com 的投資者關係頁面中找到我們的評論中提到的非 GAAP 財務措施的對賬。

With that, it's now my pleasure to turn the call over to John Geller.

有了這個，現在我很高興把電話轉給約翰蓋勒。

Thanks, Neal, and good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our first quarter earnings call. Looking at our year-to-date results, it's clear that consumers are prioritizing travel, which we saw in our occupancy rates and contract sales growth during the first quarter. Spring break travel made headlines this year with record-breaking numbers in March with beach vacations topping the list of preferred destinations.

謝謝，尼爾，大家早上好，感謝您參加我們的第一季度財報電話會議。從我們年初至今的業績來看，很明顯消費者正在優先考慮旅行，我們在第一季度的入住率和合同銷售增長中看到了這一點。春假旅行成為今年的頭條新聞，3 月份的人數破紀錄，海灘度假位居首選目的地榜首。

In addition, over 45% of Americans earning over $100,000 a year recently surveyed believe now is a good time to spend on leisure travel and intentions to book leisure travel have been on a clear uptrend. Since becoming CEO earlier this year, I've been on the road visiting a number of our resorts and have had the chance to meet with many of our associates who are responsible for delivering unforgettable vacation experiences for our owners, members and guests.

此外，最近接受調查的年收入超過 100,000 美元的美國人中，超過 45% 的人認為現在是休閒旅行的好時機，並且預訂休閒旅行的意願一直呈明顯上升趨勢。自今年早些時候成為首席執行官以來，我一直在路上參觀我們的許多度假村，並有機會與我們的許多員工會面，他們負責為我們的業主、會員和客人提供難忘的假期體驗。

Our unique destinations, trusted brands, excellent service and caring culture are just a few of the reasons we see vacationers coming back to visit us time and time again. Looking forward, despite the uncertainty of the overall economic environment, we expect strong occupancies from our owners, members and guests to continue this year. Consumers want a vacation, and they want to do with brands they trust in spacious, upscale accommodations in highly sought after markets, and we have some of the best brands in the most desirable locations in the industry.

我們獨特的目的地、值得信賴的品牌、優質的服務和關懷文化只是我們看到度假者一次又一次回來拜訪我們的部分原因。展望未來，儘管整體經濟環境存在不確定性，但我們預計今年我們的業主、會員和客人的入住率將繼續保持高位。消費者想要一個假期，他們希望在備受追捧的市場中享受寬敞、高檔住宿的信任品牌，而我們在業內最理想的地點擁有一些最好的品牌。

Now moving on to our results. 2022 was a great year for Marriott Vacations, and we kept the momentum going as we enter 2023. Occupancy was nearly 90% in the first quarter with our ski, beach and golf markets, all in high demand, while Asia Pacific continued its recovery with resort occupancy more than 30 points higher than last year's first quarter. With these strong occupancies, a robust tour package pipeline and the work of our marketing teams, we grew tours by 18% on a year-over-year basis.

現在繼續我們的結果。 2022 年對萬豪假期來說是偉大的一年，我們在進入 2023 年時保持了這一勢頭。第一季度入住率接近 90%，我們的滑雪、海灘和高爾夫市場需求旺盛，而亞太地區繼續復甦度假村入住率比去年第一季度高出 30 多點。憑藉這些強勁的入住率、強大的旅遊套餐管道以及我們營銷團隊的工作，我們的旅遊人數同比增長了 18%。

As expected, VPG declined year-over-year due to the strength of last year's first quarter, but it increased 7% sequentially and remains 30% above pre-pandemic levels. We grew contract sales by 10% in the first quarter compared to the prior year, illustrating the strong demand for our vacation ownership products and first-time buyers represented more than 30% of our contract sales this quarter, up roughly 200 basis points from the prior year. Abound by Marriott Vacations, which we launched last year, continues to resonate with owners and first-time buyers. As a reminder, the Abound program allows the owners of our Marriott, Westin and Sheraton Vacation Club products to have seamless access across these 3 branded resort systems and is helping us drive tour flow.

正如預期的那樣，由於去年第一季度的強勁表現，VPG 同比下降，但環比增長 7%，仍比大流行前水平高出 30%。與去年同期相比，我們第一季度的合同銷售額增長了 10%，這表明對我們的度假所有權產品的強勁需求，首次購買者佔本季度合同銷售額的 30% 以上，比去年同期高出約 200 個基點去年。我們去年推出的 Abound by Marriott Vacations 繼續引起業主和首次購房者的共鳴。提醒一下，Abound 計劃允許我們萬豪、威斯汀和喜來登度假俱樂部產品的所有者無縫訪問這 3 個品牌度假村系統，並幫助我們推動旅遊流量。

In our Hyatt Vacation Ownership business, we continue to make great progress integrating the legacy Welk Resorts. In March, we launched a new owner benefit that provides discounted stays for those able to take advantage of near-term resort availability. Later this year, we will rebrand all of the legacy Welk Resorts as Hyatt Vacation Club. We will also add more vacation options as we launch the BEYOND program, allowing owners to exchange for cruises, tours and hotel stays.

在我們的 Hyatt Vacation Ownership 業務中，我們繼續在整合傳統 Welk Resorts 方面取得重大進展。 3 月，我們推出了一項新的所有者福利，為那些能夠利用近期度假村可用性的人提供折扣住宿。今年晚些時候，我們將把所有傳統的 Welk Resorts 重新命名為 Hyatt Vacation Club。隨著 BEYOND 計劃的推出，我們還將增加更多度假選擇，讓船主可以換取遊輪、旅遊和酒店住宿。

Moving to our Exchange & Third-Party Management segment. Inventory utilization remained very strong, and we are starting to see higher transaction activity from the accounts we added last year. However, with inventory deposits lagging last year, revenue was down year-over-year and profit excluding VRI Americas, which we sold last April, declined $4 million. Finally, while lower inventory availability negatively impacted our first quarter results, we did see inventory improve as the quarter progressed.

轉到我們的交易所和第三方管理部門。庫存利用率仍然非常強勁，我們開始看到去年新增賬戶的交易活動有所增加。然而，由於去年庫存存款滯後，收入同比下降，不包括我們去年 4 月出售的 VRI Americas 的利潤下降了 400 萬美元。最後，雖然較低的庫存可用性對我們第一季度的業績產生了負面影響，但我們確實看到隨著季度的進展庫存有所改善。

In summary, despite concerns about inflation and the broader economy, consumers continue to prioritize vacations, enabling us to grow adjusted EBITDA by 8% on a year-over-year basis and return $134 million to shareholders through a combination of share repurchases and dividends.

總而言之，儘管對通貨膨脹和整體經濟存在擔憂，但消費者繼續優先考慮假期，這使我們能夠將調整後的 EBITDA 同比增長 8%，並通過股票回購和股息相結合的方式向股東返還 1.34 億美元。

Looking forward, I remain excited about the trajectory of our business and the opportunities that lie ahead for us. With that, I'll turn it over to Tony.

展望未來，我仍然對我們的業務發展軌跡和擺在我們面前的機遇感到興奮。有了這個，我會把它交給托尼。

Thanks, John. I'm also happy with the way we started the year. Today, I'm going to review our first quarter results, the strength of our balance sheet and liquidity and our 2023 outlook. Starting with our Vacation Ownership segment. As John mentioned, with consumer demand for leisure travel remaining strong and global resort occupancies running nearly 90%, we grew towards by 18% in the first quarter on a year-over-year basis. Consistent with our previous guidance, VPG declined compared to last year due to a difficult comp but improved sequentially.

謝謝，約翰。我也對我們開始這一年的方式感到滿意。今天，我將回顧我們第一季度的業績、資產負債表和流動性的實力以及我們的 2023 年展望。從我們的度假所有權部分開始。正如約翰所說，隨著消費者對休閒旅遊的需求保持強勁，全球度假村的入住率接近 90%，我們在第一季度同比增長了 18%。與我們之前的指導一致，VPG 與去年相比有所下降，原因是比較困難，但環比有所改善。

The overall result was a 10% increase in year-over-year contract sales, a strong start for the year. We also grew our tour package pipeline ending the first quarter with over 230,000 packages, including a growing pipeline for high vacation ownership and in total, more than 35% of these customers have already booked their vacation for the current year.

總體結果是合同銷售額同比增長 10%，這是今年的一個良好開端。我們還增加了我們的旅遊套餐渠道，截至第一季度結束時有超過 230,000 個套餐，其中包括不斷增長的高假期所有權渠道，總共有超過 35% 的客戶已經預訂了當年的假期。

Adjusted development profit increased 14% year-over-year to $109 million. Adjusted development profit margin increased 90 basis points compared to the prior year to 29%. This was driven by the growth in contract sales and favorable inventory costs. As expected, excluding the Westin Puerto Vallarta hotel that was sold last June, profit in our rental business declined $4 million to $25 million compared to the prior year. Revenue per available key increased 9%, but was more than offset by higher unsold inventory and cleaning costs as well as increased explorer usage. In the stickier parts of our Vacation Ownership business, financing profit increased $2 million as increases in contract sales and financing propensity were partially offset by higher borrowing rates on our newer securitizations.

調整後的開發利潤同比增長 14% 至 1.09 億美元。調整後的開發利潤率比上年增長 90 個基點，達到 29%。這是由合同銷售的增長和有利的庫存成本推動的。正如預期的那樣，不包括去年 6 月出售的威斯汀巴亞爾塔港酒店，我們租賃業務的利潤與上一年相比下降了 400 萬美元至 2500 萬美元。每個可用密鑰的收入增加了 9%，但被更高的未售出庫存和清潔成本以及增加的資源管理器使用量所抵消。在我們的分時度假業務中更具粘性的部分，融資利潤增加了 200 萬美元，因為合同銷售和融資傾向的增加被我們新證券化的更高借款利率部分抵消了。

Profit from our resort management business declined $1 million as higher management fees were offset by the timing of club dues revenue. As a result, adjusted EBITDA in our Vacation Ownership segment increased 15% in the first quarter to $229 million and margin remained very strong at more than 31%. Moving to our exchange and third-party management business. Revenue declined 2%, excluding VRI Americas, primarily as a result of lower gateway revenue related to reduced inventory deposits.

我們度假村管理業務的利潤下降了 100 萬美元，原因是更高的管理費被俱樂部會費收入的時間所抵消。因此，我們分時度假業務的調整後 EBITDA 在第一季度增長了 15% 至 2.29 億美元，利潤率仍然非常強勁，超過 31%。轉到我們的交易所和第三方管理業務。收入下降 2%，不包括 VRI Americas，這主要是由於與庫存押金減少相關的網關收入下降。

Adjusted EBITDA was $37 million, a decrease of $4 million from the prior year due to the lower revenue as well as higher wage and benefit costs and operating margin remained strong at 56% for the quarter.

調整後的 EBITDA 為 3700 萬美元，比上年減少 400 萬美元，原因是收入減少以及工資和福利成本增加，本季度營業利潤率保持在 56% 的強勁水平。

Finally, as expected, corporate G&A expense increased $7 million year-over-year as costs related to implementing our vacation mix program and new product development initiatives were partially offset by lower bonus expense. As a result, total company adjusted EBITDA increased to $203 million, 8% higher than last year's first quarter, and adjusted EBITDA margin was 25% in line with last year, demonstrating the strength of our leisure-focused business model.

最後，正如預期的那樣，公司 G&A 費用同比增加 700 萬美元，因為與實施我們的假期組合計劃和新產品開發計劃相關的成本被較低的獎金費用部分抵消。因此，公司調整後的 EBITDA 總額增至 2.03 億美元，比去年第一季度增長 8%，調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為 25%，與去年持平，顯示了我們以休閒為重點的業務模式的實力。

Moving to the balance sheet. We ended the quarter with approximately $1 billion in liquidity, including $306 million of cash, $120 million of gross notes receivable eligible for securitization and $549 million of available capacity under our revolver. With $3.1 billion of corporate debt outstanding at the end of the quarter, our net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio stood at 3.1x roughly in line with our targeted 2.5x to 3x leverage range with expectations to be within our targeted range by year-end, and we remain well positioned in today's elevated interest rate environment, with 85% of our corporate debt effectively fixed at an average interest rate of 3.2% and no corporate debt maturities until 2025.

轉到資產負債表。本季度結束時，我們擁有約 10 億美元的流動資金，其中包括 3.06 億美元現金、1.2 億美元符合證券化條件的應收票據總額以及 5.49 億美元的循環利用能力。本季度末未償還的公司債務為 31 億美元，我們的淨債務與調整後 EBITDA 的比率為 3.1 倍，大致符合我們 2.5 倍至 3 倍的目標槓桿率範圍，預計到年底將在我們的目標範圍內，我們在當今的高利率環境中仍然處於有利地位，我們 85% 的公司債務實際上固定在 3.2% 的平均利率，並且在 2025 年之前沒有公司債務到期。

We also ended the quarter with $1.9 billion of nonrecourse debt related to our securitized note receivables. In April, we completed our first timeshare receivable securitization of the year issuing $380 million of notes at an overall weighted average interest rate of 5.5%, including the $11 million of Class B notes we retained. The transaction was structured with a 98% gross advance rate and the blended interest rate was more than 100 basis points lower than our last securitization.

本季度末，我們還背負了 19 億美元與我們的證券化應收票據相關的無追索權債務。 4 月，我們完成了本年度首次分時度假應收賬款證券化，發行了 3.8 億美元票據，總加權平均利率為 5.5%，其中包括我們保留的 1100 萬美元 B 類票據。該交易的總預付款率為 98%，混合利率比我們上次證券化低 100 個基點以上。

Finally, sales reserve as a percent of contract sales increased year-over-year, largely due to revenue reportability and higher financing propensity. However, despite concerns about the broader economic environment, our notes receivable portfolio continues to perform well with delinquencies and defaults up only 20 basis points compared to pre-pandemic levels excluding legacy Welk, reflecting the strength of our borrowers.

最後，銷售儲備佔合同銷售額的百分比同比增加，這主要是由於收入的可報告性和更高的融資傾向。然而，儘管對更廣泛的經濟環境感到擔憂，但我們的應收票據組合繼續表現良好，拖欠和違約率僅比大流行前水平（不包括遺留 Welk）高 20 個基點，反映了我們藉款人的實力。

We also returned $134 million to shareholders in the first quarter repurchasing $80 million of common stock and paying $54 million in dividends. Moving on to our 2023 guidance. As you saw in last night's earnings release, we affirmed our $950 million to $1 billion adjusted EBITDA guidance for 2023 and continue to target 5% to 9% contract sales growth this year. Despite having another difficult year-over-year VPG comparison in the second quarter, we still expect full year VPG to only decline a few points compared to last year and for tour growth to remain robust, though not as strong as the 18% growth we saw in the first quarter.

我們還在第一季度向股東返還了 1.34 億美元，回購了 8000 萬美元的普通股並支付了 5400 萬美元的股息。繼續我們的 2023 年指南。正如您在昨晚的財報中看到的那樣，我們確認了 2023 年 9.5 億至 10 億美元的調整後 EBITDA 指引，並繼續將今年的合同銷售額增長目標定為 5% 至 9%。儘管第二季度 VPG 與去年同期相比再次出現困難，但我們仍然預計全年 VPG 與去年相比只會下降幾個百分點，並且旅遊增長將保持強勁，儘管不如我們 18% 的增長那麼強勁第一季看到的。

We continue to optimize our digital technology to drive lower marketing cost per tour and we expect product costs to remain relatively low this year compared to historical levels. As a result, we expect development margin to be around 31% this year. Rental profit in our Vacation Ownership segment is expected to decline year-over-year in the second quarter due to higher preview key usage and increased maintenance fees on our unsold inventory. However, it is still expected to increase more than 10% for the full year due to the timing of explorer costs and an easier second half comparison.

我們繼續優化我們的數字技術以降低每次旅行的營銷成本，我們預計今年的產品成本與歷史水平相比仍將保持在較低水平。因此，我們預計今年的開發利潤率約為 31%。由於預覽密鑰使用量增加和未售出庫存的維護費用增加，預計第二季度分時度假業務的租金利潤將同比下降。然而，由於勘探成本的時間安排和下半年比較容易，預計全年仍將增長 10% 以上。

We expect financing profit to be up slightly for the year, excluding last year's $19 million alignment benefit as increased contract sales and higher financing propensity are expected to more than offset higher borrowing costs. We also expect profit from our Vacation Ownership resort management business to be up roughly 5% for the year. In our exchange and third-party management segment, while inventory deposits at interval have begun to improve, we're still below the levels we were at this time last year.

我們預計今年的融資利潤將略有上升，不包括去年 1900 萬美元的調整收益，因為合同銷售額的增加和更高的融資傾向預計將抵消更高的借貸成本。我們還預計分時度假管理業務的利潤今年將增長約 5%。在我們的交易所和第三方管理部門，雖然間歇性存貨存款開始改善，但我們仍低於去年同期的水平。

Though we continue to experience high utilization of the inventory we receive with less inventory deposited for members to exchange into, we expect lower exchange and getaway transactions this year. As a result, we now expect adjusted EBITDA in our exchange and third-party management segment to be flat to down slightly this year. Moving to cash flow. We ended the quarter with roughly $465 million of excess inventory, which we expect to sell in the coming years. We will also look for opportunities to add new resorts where we can establish a new sales center, and we'll look to do this in a capital-efficient manner.

儘管我們繼續體驗到我們收到的庫存的高利用率，以及存放供會員交換的庫存減少，但我們預計今年的交換和度假交易會減少。因此，我們現在預計今年我們的交易所和第三方管理部門的調整後 EBITDA 將持平或略有下降。轉向現金流。我們在本季度結束時擁有大約 4.65 億美元的過剩庫存，我們預計這些庫存將在未來幾年內出售。我們還將尋找機會增加新的度假村，在那裡我們可以建立一個新的銷售中心，我們將尋求以一種資本效率高的方式來做到這一點。

Our adjusted free cash flow guidance remains unchanged for the year, expecting to generate between $600 million and $670 million. We continue to look to use our free cash flow for organic growth or strategic acquisitions. In the absence of compelling acquisitions, our best use of excess free cash flow remains returning it to shareholders.

我們調整後的自由現金流指引全年保持不變，預計產生 6 億至 6.7 億美元。我們繼續尋求將我們的自由現金流用於有機增長或戰略收購。在沒有引人注目的收購的情況下，我們對多餘自由現金流的最佳利用仍然是將其返還給股東。

In summary, we started the year on a strong note, growing contract sales by 10% in the first quarter and returning $134 million to shareholders. Occupancies were nearly 90%, and we expect them to remain strong throughout the year. Finally, Abound by Marriott Vacations continues to resonate with customers and the integration of the legacy Welk business into Hyatt is progressing well. As always, we appreciate your interest in Marriott Vacations Worldwide.

總而言之，我們今年開局表現強勁，第一季度合同銷售額增長了 10%，並向股東返還了 1.34 億美元。入住率接近 90%，我們預計它們將在全年保持強勁勢頭。最後，Abound by Marriott Vacations 繼續引起客戶的共鳴，而 Welk 傳統業務與凱悅的整合進展順利。一如既往，我們感謝您對萬豪國際度假的關注。

With that, we'll be happy to answer your questions. Melissa?

有了這個，我們很樂意回答您的問題。梅麗莎？

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Patrick Scholes with Truist Security.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Truist Security 的 Patrick Scholes。

Great. Tony, just a question for you. First off, on the quarter here. One thing that I think surprised us all. Year-over-year, despite your sales and vacation ownership products up quite significantly, actually, your cost of vacation ownership products went down. Can you give us some color on that? And then I'll have another question.

偉大的。托尼，只是問你一個問題。首先，在這裡的季度。我認為讓我們所有人感到驚訝的一件事。與去年同期相比，儘管您的銷售額和度假所有權產品顯著增長，但實際上，您的度假所有權產品成本下降了。你能給我們一些顏色嗎？然後我會有另一個問題。

Sure. Yes. The cost of vacation ownership products is going to be driven by the inventory that we load into the trust each year. Right now, especially coming off of COVID, we weren't adding a whole bunch of new inventory to that mix. We did complete the existing obligations that we had and those were sitting on our balance sheet, and that's part of that $465 million worth of excess inventory that we talk about.

當然。是的。度假所有權產品的成本將由我們每年加載到信託中的庫存驅動。現在，尤其是在 COVID 之後，我們並沒有向該組合添加一大堆新庫存。我們確實完成了我們現有的義務，這些義務在我們的資產負債表上，這是我們談論的價值 4.65 億美元的過剩庫存的一部分。

But we did have a pretty significant amount of repurchased inventory, and that comes in at, let's call it, below market cost -- below replacement cost actually. So with a lot of that inventory in some of the more previous loads, it really drives the cost of vacation ownership products down a lot. And so we expect that to stay fairly low over the next couple of years as we get through all the reacquired inventory that we've been taking.

但我們確實有相當數量的回購庫存，我們稱之為低於市場成本——實際上低於重置成本。因此，由於之前的一些負載中有大量庫存，這確實大大降低了度假所有權產品的成本。因此，我們預計在未來幾年內，隨著我們完成所有重新獲得的庫存，這一數字將保持在相當低的水平。

Okay. And then I had another question for you, Tony. And then just one -- final one after that on just sort of high-level (inaudible) question. The volume of share repurchases was down quarter-over-quarter. Anything to read into that and thoughts on that going forward? And then lastly, if you folks would be so kind to just sort of touch on expectations for summer leisure travel versus last summer. Just in general, how you think that's shaping up, how that's trending and (inaudible)?

好的。然後我有另一個問題要問你，托尼。然後只是一個——最後一個關於高級（聽不清）問題的問題。股票回購量環比下降。有什麼可以解讀的以及對未來的想法嗎？最後，如果你們願意談談與去年夏天相比對夏季休閒旅行的期望。總的來說，您認為這是如何形成的，趨勢如何以及（聽不清）？

Yes, I wouldn't read a lot into the volume of share repurchases. Again, we're sticking to our capital allocation strategy that you've heard a million times by now. And anything that we get that's past what we're going to use internally and pass any strategic acquisitions, we do plan to return to shareholders. Last year, we had the benefit of not a lot of cash outflow for inventory or other uses, and we actually generated a decent amount of cash and had some dispositions through some cash at us.

是的，我不會過多解讀股票回購的數量。同樣，我們堅持您現在已經聽過一百萬次的資本配置策略。我們得到的任何超過我們將在內部使用並通過任何戰略收購的東西，我們確實計劃回報給股東。去年，我們受益於存貨或其他用途的現金流出不多，我們實際上產生了可觀數量的現金，並通過一些現金進行了一些處置。

So we actually had a pretty robust adjusted EBITDA to adjusted free cash flow conversion last year that was above 80%. This year, it's going back to, I think, in the mid-60s. So then we said that would normalize back down to the mid-50s in the next few years as (inaudible) obligations come back up. So really, we're just following our capital allocation strategy, returning as much as we can to shareholders in light of those other capital allocation strategies that we look at. So nothing really to read into there. And then you wanted to understand what we're seeing in summer?

因此，去年我們實際上有一個相當強勁的調整後 EBITDA 到調整後的自由現金流轉換，超過 80%。今年，我認為它會回到 60 年代中期。因此，然後我們說隨著（聽不清）義務的恢復，這將在未來幾年內正常化回 50 年代中期。因此，實際上，我們只是在遵循我們的資本配置策略，根據我們所考慮的其他資本配置策略，盡可能多地回報股東。所以沒什麼可讀的。然後您想了解我們在夏天看到的是什麼？

Just sort of give us some high-level thoughts about summer. Certainly, as we look, sort of, at different vacation types of products, it really -- it looks like to be a mixed bag. If we look at sort of traditional domestic resort hotel occupancy for the summer house tracking, it's kind of soft, whereas we look at other types of vacations notably take cruise lines, Royal Caribbean reported this morning extremely strong results and looking good for the rest of the year. How do you see vacation ownership demand for the summer sort of fitting into that travel plans?

只是給我們一些關於夏天的高級想法。當然，正如我們所看到的，在某種程度上，在不同的假期類型的產品中，它真的 - 它看起來像是一個混合包。如果我們看看傳統國內度假酒店的避暑別墅入住率，它有點軟，而我們看看其他類型的假期，特別是乘坐郵輪，皇家加勒比海地區今天早上報告非常強勁的結果並且看起來不錯那一年。您如何看待夏季的度假所有權需求適合該旅行計劃？

Yes, Patrick. All our forward bookings are as strong as they've ever been, right, from a historical basis as we look into the summer. I think where you're seeing some uptick to for us is internationally on Asia Pacific, as we talked about. It's a fairly low number last year in the first quarter in terms of occupancy at our Asia Pacific resorts, but we're up about 30 points in occupancy in the first quarter, and I expect those trends to continue.

是的，帕特里克。我們所有的遠期預訂都和以往一樣強勁，正確的，從我們展望夏季的歷史基礎來看。正如我們所談到的，我認為你看到我們在亞太地區的國際上有所上升。就我們亞太度假村的入住率而言，去年第一季度的數字相當低，但我們在第一季度的入住率上升了約 30 個百分點，我預計這些趨勢將繼續下去。

And I think coming into the U.S., you've got more international travel, Hawaii is recovering a little bit with some of (inaudible), but still has a ways to go to get back to those levels. So we feel good about the summer. I think all the kind of forward-looking channels look very strong for us.

而且我認為進入美國後，你會有更多的國際旅行，夏威夷正在恢復一些（聽不清），但仍然有辦法恢復到那些水平。所以我們對夏天感覺很好。我認為所有這些前瞻性渠道對我們來說都非常強大。

Our next question comes from the line of Chris Woronka with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Chris Woronka。

So I guess the first question would be, have you seen any -- if you drill down into kind of your customer base? And whether we're talking towards or maybe contract sales, whatever the right metric is, any delineation in kind of trends or performance kind of West Coast versus East Coast of the U.S.? And not just specifically asking about the Silicon Valley Bank stuff. But in general, with some of the tech pressure out there. Is there anything you can at all that you see in the data that would indicate a difference in geography?

所以我想第一個問題是，如果你深入了解你的客戶群，你有沒有看到過？我們是否正在談論或可能是合同銷售，無論正確的指標是什麼，美國西海岸與美國東海岸的趨勢或表現類型的任何描述？而不僅僅是專門詢問矽谷銀行的事情。但總的來說，存在一些技術壓力。您在數據中看到的任何東西都可以表明地理差異嗎？

Yes. Chris, for the first quarter, not really, very strong. Some of the things, notwithstanding our growth in contract sales for us where we've underperformed in the first quarter on the sales side, is really the transitions we've been making, whether it's the Marriott Abound program, right, and started, and we've talked about this in the past, we start to transition to sell the new product from, say, the old Westin or Sheraton Flex product. And that transition, right, can be bumpy at times. So we see it more in that. Same thing on the Hyatt and Welk side because you're aligning business models, compensation, leadership, you have to educate the existing owners who are your big buyers, right, on the new product, get them comfortable and all that.

是的。克里斯，在第一季度，並不是非常非常強勁。有些事情，儘管我們在第一季度在銷售方面表現不佳的情況下我們的合同銷售額有所增長，但確實是我們一直在進行的轉型，無論是 Marriott Abound 計劃，對，還是開始，以及我們過去談過這個，我們開始過渡到銷售新產品，比如舊的威斯汀或喜來登 Flex 產品。對，這種轉變有時會很坎坷。所以我們在這方面看到了更多。在 Hyatt 和 Welk 方面也是如此，因為你正在調整商業模式、薪酬、領導力，你必須教育現有的業主，他們是你的大買家，對，關於新產品，讓他們感到舒服等等。

So if we've seen any softness and like I said, with contract sales were up 10%, it's actually around some of those, call them self-inflicted transitions that -- that's opportunity, right? Going forward, we're going to get those back to where they need to be. But as you go through it, as we've always said, you get a little bit of bumpiness. I'd say, as you get -- as we got into April, to your question, not that we can put our finger exactly on it. We did see some softness if you look in the desert out in California. So you talked West, but it wasn't -- it wasn't across all our West, right? Like so the -- there were pockets there, some -- a little bit in Hawaii just in terms of the performance. But nothing pervasive across in the East on a relative basis, yes, continued to perform very well as well as Florida, Caribbean, et cetera. So nothing concerning. But like I said, our bigger things we're working through are things that are within our control, right, not macroeconomic.

因此，如果我們看到任何疲軟，就像我說的那樣，合同銷售額增長了 10%，實際上是圍繞其中一些，稱之為自我造成的轉變——這是機會，對吧？展望未來，我們將讓他們回到他們需要的地方。但是當你經歷它時，就像我們一直說的那樣，你會遇到一些坎坷。我會說，當你得到 - 當我們進入四月時，對於你的問題，我們不能準確地指出它。如果你看看加利福尼亞州的沙漠，我們確實看到了一些柔軟。所以你說的是西部，但它不是——它不是在我們整個西部，對吧？就像這樣 - 那裡有一些口袋，一些 - 就性能而言在夏威夷有點。但在相對基礎上，沒有什麼東西在東部普遍存在，是的，繼續表現得像佛羅里達、加勒比海等地一樣好。所以沒什麼好擔心的。但就像我說的，我們正在努力解決的更大的事情是我們可以控制的事情，對，而不是宏觀經濟。

Yes. Yes. Understood. Thanks for the detail John. And then as a follow-up, you guys talked about higher propensity to finance. And I know that some of that is because, I guess, prices are higher, and you're also getting a higher mix of first-time buyers. But is there anything further to kind of explain it. And maybe the better question would be, if we look at first-time buyers today versus, say, 2019, are they also -- are those first-time buyers more of them opting to finance or finance at higher levels? Just trying to get a little color on what's driving that given that rates are up, and it's a little bit more expensive to finance?

是的。是的。明白了。感謝約翰的詳細信息。然後作為後續行動，你們談到了更高的融資傾向。而且我知道其中一部分是因為，我猜，價格更高，而且你也有更多的首次購買者。但是還有什麼可以進一步解釋的嗎？也許更好的問題是，如果我們看看今天的首次購房者與 2019 年相比，他們是否也 - 那些首次購房者中更多的人選擇融資或更高級別的融資？鑑於利率上升，只是想了解一下驅動因素，而且融資成本更高一點？

Yes. Well, if you think about it, Chris, the way we offer our financing, while our average lending rate, I think if you look at the securitization we just did versus the one we did last year was 30, 40 basis points higher. As we've talked about, the financing we provide is really just to help in terms of ease for the consumer that's buying. So we haven't moved our rates on a relative basis, the same as what you've seen in the broader interest rate market, if you will.

是的。好吧，克里斯，如果你考慮一下，我們提供融資的方式，而我們的平均貸款利率，我想如果你看看我們剛剛進行的證券化與我們去年進行的證券化相比，高了 30、40 個基點。正如我們所討論的，我們提供的融資實際上只是為了幫助正在購買的消費者提供便利。所以我們沒有在相對基礎上調整我們的利率，就像你在更廣泛的利率市場上看到的那樣，如果你願意的話。

So -- but you're right, you're seeing slightly higher propensity and some of that's mix, as we talked about, we did have more first-time buyers, historically first-time buyers because they buy a little bit more than owners that are buying more. And it could just be -- it's obviously coming out of COVID with a lot of excess cash out there. Maybe some of the buyers don't have as much excess cash. So they're opting for the convenience of the financing. But we haven't seen any -- I don't know if Tony has anything to add, but I'm not aware of any different trends. We clearly haven't changed our underwriting standards or done anything that is different in the first quarter than we were doing last year.

所以——但你是對的，你看到的傾向略高，其中一些是混合的，正如我們所說，我們確實有更多的首次購房者，歷史上是首次購房者，因為他們買的比業主多一點購買更多。它可能只是——它顯然是從 COVID 中出來的，那裡有大量多餘的現金。也許一些買家沒有那麼多多餘的現金。所以他們選擇了融資的便利。但我們還沒有看到——我不知道托尼是否有什麼要補充的，但我不知道有什麼不同的趨勢。我們顯然沒有改變我們的承保標準，也沒有在第一季度做任何與去年不同的事情。

Yes, you're absolutely right, John, and Chris. John hit it on the mark when you talked about the cost of our financing, it's not that much more right now. We've probably raised rates maybe 25 basis points. We don't go in lockstep with the broader environment -- economic environment. We didn't take rates down point-for-point when interest rates were dropping, we're not taking them up point for point, while they're going up.

是的，你完全正確，約翰和克里斯。當你談到我們的融資成本時，約翰一語中的，現在並沒有那麼多。我們可能已經將利率提高了 25 個基點。我們沒有與更廣泛的環境——經濟環境步調一致。我們沒有在利率下降時逐點下調利率，我們也沒有在利率上升時逐點上調利率。

I mean we did see higher financing propensity in Q1 than the previous year. We're probably at 54% Q1 this year versus 50% last year. However, we're not back to where we were back in 2019. And if you look pre-COVID, we're in that lower 60s. So we hope to be trending back towards that level.

我的意思是我們確實看到第一季度的融資傾向高於去年。我們今年第一季度的比例可能為 54%，而去年為 50%。然而，我們並沒有回到 2019 年的狀態。如果你看看 COVID 之前的情況，我們正處於 60 年代的下半年。所以我們希望回到那個水平。

Our next question comes from the line of Brandt Montour with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自 Brandt Montour 與巴克萊銀行的合作。

I appreciate all the color. So John, I was hoping maybe you could give us a little bit more color on the cadence of tours this year. Just through the lens of repeat owner tours or a little bit more shorter lead time and you guys have to plan for new owners well in advance and build that pipeline up. So I think you guys have pretty good visibility on how you think new orders are going to layer in throughout the year. And just sort of talk about that setup in relation to how you guys manage for optimal VPGs and optimal margins.

我欣賞所有的顏色。所以約翰，我希望你能給我們更多關於今年巡演節奏的色彩。僅僅通過重複業主之旅的鏡頭或更短的交貨時間，你們就必須提前為新業主做好計劃並建立管道。所以我認為你們對新訂單將如何在全年層出不窮有很好的了解。只是談談與你們如何管理最佳 VPG 和最佳利潤有關的設置。

Yes. I think you hit the key components: one, our package pipeline, which we talked about is at all-time highs, right? So we've got a strong package, people that are prepaid for their vacation that are going to come and take a tour. And as you look out for the balance of the year, we expect those packages to be higher than last year, right? So that's going to continue to drive tours through the balance of the year.

是的。我認為您觸及了關鍵部分：第一，我們談到的我們的包裹管道處於歷史最高水平，對嗎？所以我們有一個強大的套餐，那些預付了假期費用的人會來參觀。當您關註今年的餘額時，我們預計這些套餐會高於去年，對嗎？因此，這將在今年餘下時間繼續推動旅遊。

A lot of it is in terms of getting those packages to where they want to go, that's where there can be some lead time because our occupancies are so high. So we continue to try and get, and build the package pipeline at the same time, but we continue to try and get those customers on vacation and on a tour to drive the sales flow.

很多都是為了將這些包裹送到他們想去的地方，因為我們的入住率很高，所以可能會有一些交貨時間。所以我們繼續嘗試並同時建立包裹管道，但我們繼續嘗試讓這些客戶去度假和旅遊以推動銷售流程。

And then on the owner side, same thing. It's -- to your point, we don't have as much visibility, but we've got a lot of history. And as we talked about earlier, with the Abound program and more so with some of the Hyatt stuff that we're going to be launching later this year, you can usually drive your, what we call, our owner tour penetration much higher, and that's what we saw in the first quarter versus last year because owners want to come in and they want to talk about the new program, understand new vacation options and things that come either with Abound or later this year with the Hyatt BEYOND program.

然後在所有者方面，同樣的事情。這是 - 就您而言，我們沒有那麼多知名度，但我們有很多歷史。正如我們之前談到的，通過 Abound 計劃以及我們將在今年晚些時候推出的一些凱悅酒店，您通常可以提高我們所謂的業主旅遊滲透率，並且這就是我們在第一季度與去年相比看到的情況，因為業主想進來，他們想談論新計劃，了解新的假期選擇以及 Abound 或今年晚些時候 Hyatt BEYOND 計劃帶來的事情。

So we're always trying to maximize tour flow. You saw a great tour flow growth in the first quarter. And the balance on all that, and this is where we continue to drive some of our digital marketing and getting our marketing costs down per tour because as you drive those stores, you are sometimes opening up some of your higher cost channels, right?

所以我們一直在努力最大化旅遊流量。您在第一季度看到了巨大的旅遊流量增長。所有這一切的平衡，這就是我們繼續推動我們的一些數字營銷並降低每次旅行的營銷成本的地方，因為當你開這些商店時，你有時會打開一些成本更高的渠道，對吧？

So the balance, right, is to continue to drive your VPG at the same time, manage our marketing and sales costs. And as Tony talked about, (inaudible) the third component is our product costs, which we continue to expect to be very low going forward. But that is going to get us that 30%, 31% development margin similar to what we got last year, if you will, on VPGs that haven't grown that much, but on significant higher costs in total around tours, right?

因此，正確的平衡是繼續推動您的 VPG，同時管理我們的營銷和銷售成本。正如托尼所說，（聽不清）第三個組成部分是我們的產品成本，我們繼續期望它在未來非常低。但這將使我們獲得與去年類似的 30%、31% 的開發利潤率，如果你願意的話，在沒有增長那麼多的 VPG 上，但在巡迴演出的總成本上顯著增加，對吧？

So the more we can drive revenues and leverage some of our fixed marketing and sales costs and get our variable costs down, that's the goal.

因此，我們越能推動收入並利用我們的一些固定營銷和銷售成本並降低可變成本，這就是目標。

Our next question comes from the line of Shaun Kelley with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Shaun Kelley。

Just specifically, I wanted to ask about the exchange and third-party management business. I think -- you made a comment in the prepared remarks about seeing inventory improve as the quarter progressed. And I was wondering if you could just elaborate on that a little bit. What maybe drove that? And do you expect that to continue either through next quarter or throughout the year?

具體來說，我想問一下交易所和第三方管理業務。我認為 - 你在準備好的評論中發表了關於看到庫存隨著季度進展而改善的評論。我想知道你是否可以詳細說明一下。是什麼驅動了它？您是否希望這種情況會持續到下個季度或全年？

Sure. Yes. A couple of things. There's things we can do in terms of making offers to the Interval members for say cruise exchanges or things to do with their inventory that would hopefully -- people want to go on a cruise. I think Patrick talked earlier about the demand for cruises. So they can exchange their week for a cruise, that gives us inventory. So we run different, call them, promotions to the members, and we've been doing more of that to drive some of it. It's also talking with our developers that put in both deposits.

當然。是的。幾件事。我們可以做一些事情，比如向 Interval 會員提供遊輪交換或與他們的庫存有關的事情，希望人們願意去遊輪。我想帕特里克早些時候談到了對郵輪的需求。所以他們可以用他們的一周換一次遊輪，這給了我們庫存。所以我們運行不同，打電話給他們，向會員促銷，我們一直在做更多的事情來推動其中的一些。它還與我們的開發人員進行了交談，他們投入了這兩種存款。

They -- coming out of COVID, some of the historical trends of timing and owner usage, like we've seen, we've seen higher owner usage, right? When you have higher owner usage, yes, you don't get as many deposits on the exchange side. So we do think that's going to help going forward. There'll be some normalization. People will get back to more exchanges doing other things. So it's really a combination of the 2, some of the member activity, but also trying to promote some of this exchange activity.

他們——來自 COVID，一些時間和所有者使用的歷史趨勢，就像我們看到的，我們已經看到更高的所有者使用，對吧？當你擁有更高的所有者使用率時，是的，你不會在交易所獲得那麼多的存款。所以我們確實認為這將有助於前進。會有一些正常化。人們會回到更多的交易所做其他事情。所以這真的是兩者的結合，一些會員活動，但也試圖促進一些這種交流活動。

And obviously, if we can do that, that provides more inventory, which then provides more exchange or transaction opportunity for us.

顯然，如果我們能做到這一點，就會提供更多的庫存，從而為我們提供更多的交換或交易機會。

Excellent. And then the second kind of follow-up to that would be just are you seeing -- you kind of alluded to this or are you seeing kind of any normalization in that owner utilization piece of the business, right? So are things reverting back to normal from a behavioral perspective at all or are still things just really humming in terms of usage rates just given, I guess, alternative pricing cost out there?

出色的。然後第二種後續行動就是你看到的——你有點提到這一點，或者你在業務的所有者利用部分看到任何正常化，對吧？那麼，從行為的角度來看，事情是否完全恢復正常，或者就剛剛給出的使用率而言，事情仍然在嗡嗡作響，我猜，替代定價成本在那裡？

Yes. No, I think we -- the owner usage still is probably a little bit higher than it was pre-COVID. But it's probably come down a little bit. I would say from kind of what we saw coming right out of COVID, right, with owners getting back going to our resorts. So time will tell. I do think my sense would be that it will continue to normalize back and people maybe after going to their home resort or for the past year or 2, once again try and get out in exchange. I mean, we see it on our vacation ownership business, they're typically about 25% plus or minus exchange into -- on the Marriott side, our Explorer program. And so that means they're taking a vacation outside the system of the vacation ownership resorts, right?

是的。不，我認為我們——所有者的使用率可能仍然比 COVID 之前高一點。但它可能會下降一點點。我想說的是我們從 COVID 中看到的情況，對吧，業主們又回到了我們的度假村。所以時間會證明一切。我確實認為我的感覺是它會繼續恢復正常，人們可能會在去他們的家鄉度假勝地或過去一兩年後再次嘗試出去交換。我的意思是，我們在我們的度假所有權業務中看到了這一點，在萬豪方面，我們的 Explorer 計劃通常會有 25% 左右的交換。所以這意味著他們在分時度假勝地系統之外度假，對吧？

So I think we'll get back to some of that normalization here as we go forward.

所以我認為我們會在前進的過程中恢復一些正常化。

Our next question comes from the line of David Katz with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 David Katz 與 Jefferies 的對話。

Look, a little more of the amount of question having shut through a good portion of earnings season where we've seen mostly very good numbers and pretty good guidance also. But at the same time, still this looming slowdown or recession or however, we'd like to characterize it that has yet to define itself. I'm just curious, how have you thought about that looming whatever it is and what you've talked about and given us today? And -- or are you just staying focused on calling it like you see it so far?

看，更多的問題已經結束了大部分收益季節，我們看到了非常好的數字和非常好的指導。但與此同時，仍然是這種迫在眉睫的放緩或衰退，或者我們想描述它尚未定義的特徵。我只是很好奇，您如何看待即將到來的一切以及您今天所談論和給我們的內容？並且 - 或者你只是專注於像你目前看到的那樣稱呼它？

Yes. David, Yes. I mean this looming recession has kind of been looming. It feels like for 18 months now, right -- years. It keeps getting pushed out. Now where is it going to go? How deep is it going to be? Is it going to be a hard landing, soft landing, all that. So we always look out. We're looking at trends. We're looking at do we need to make adjustments. Not knowing what exactly it's going to be, that is going to be what drives our management decision. So I think you've heard me say before, I think in a normal kind of garden variety, not long, too deep over a recession, I think we grow our business, right? We don't -- probably not going to grow it as fast as we've guided here, but if you look at the different parts of the business, like we've talked about, the exchange side, you go back to the financial crisis even people own their timeshare, they're going on vacation. Resort occupancies on the VO side will continue to remain very high. We're in 90% coming out of the financial crisis.

是的。大衛，是的。我的意思是，這種迫在眉睫的衰退已經迫在眉睫。感覺現在已經過了 18 個月，對吧 - 年。它不斷被推出。現在它要去哪裡？它有多深？會是硬著陸、軟著陸等等。所以我們總是小心翼翼。我們正在關注趨勢。我們正在考慮是否需要進行調整。不知道它到底會是什麼，這將是推動我們管理決策的因素。所以我想你以前聽我說過，我認為在正常的花園品種中，經濟衰退時間不長，太深，我認為我們會發展我們的業務，對嗎？我們不會 - 可能不會像我們在這裡指導的那樣快速增長，但如果你看看業務的不同部分，就像我們談到的那樣，交易方面，你會回到財務方面危機 即使人們擁有自己的分時度假，他們也會去度假。 VO 一側的度假村入住率將繼續保持很高水平。我們已經 90% 走出了金融危機。

So people own, they want to use. And then I think on the sales side, as you think about contract sales on the VO that's like -- as we talked about, we've got -- we have levers, promotions, we can adjust up the offer. We do different things. We've done this in the past, we do it month-to-month at times depending on kind of what we're seeing to drive sales, et cetera. So I think, like I said, if it's not some type of deeper long recession, I think we'll maneuver through it with probably a little bit of softness, but not what -- it feels like the market is expecting. But we've been talking about this next garden-variety recession for I don't know, 13 years now, and we haven't really had it yet. So -- and really don't want a recession, but I feel like we'll be fine working our way through it.

所以人們擁有，他們想要使用。然後我認為在銷售方面，當你考慮 VO 上的合同銷售時，就像我們談到的那樣，我們有槓桿、促銷活動，我們可以調整報價。我們做不同的事情。我們過去曾這樣做過，我們有時會每月這樣做，具體取決於我們所看到的推動銷售的類型，等等。所以我認為，就像我說的那樣，如果這不是某種更深層次的長期衰退，我認為我們可能會以稍微溫和的方式度過難關，但不會像市場預期的那樣。但我們一直在談論下一次普通的衰退，我不知道，13 年了，我們還沒有真正經歷過。所以 - 真的不希望經濟衰退，但我覺得我們會很好地度過它。

And I would add a little to that. Forward bookings are actually looking good. So -- and when you look at our customer, we still have little unemployment. Home prices are still decent. And you look at where our company stands and how well prepared we are, we have decent liquidity. We don't have a lot of cash commitments for inventory purchases right now. We don't have a lot of cash going out the door for debt repayments until 2025. So beyond the levers that John may have mentioned, I think we're pretty decent positioned going forward if some sort of mild recession does happen.

我想補充一點。遠期預訂實際上看起來不錯。所以——當你看看我們的客戶時，我們的失業率仍然很小。房價還是不錯的。你看看我們公司的現狀以及我們的準備情況，我們有不錯的流動性。我們目前沒有大量用於庫存採購的現金承諾。到 2025 年，我們沒有大量現金用於償還債務。因此，除了約翰可能提到的槓桿之外，我認為如果確實發生某種溫和的衰退，我們在未來的發展中處於相當不錯的位置。

Understood. And if I can follow that up, how long is -- would you say the tail is on that booking window, Tony, that you referenced?

明白了。如果我可以跟進，托尼，你提到的那個預訂窗口的尾巴是多長時間？

Probably like the 6 months we take a look at to 12 months. 12 months probably a little bit on the outside of it. But when you start looking at within the next 6 months and through the end of the year, we take a look at where we are right now versus where we were a year ago or even before that and say how many bookings do we have on the books, and we do it by previews. We do it by owner occupancy, renters and all those metrics look pretty decent right now. We've been running great occupancy at our resorts. And as you know, when our resorts are full, we get 85% of our sales from on-site, whether it's previews that we're putting into the inventory, or whether we have owners staying or renters staying, we get great penetration rates into owners. So we having them occupy is not a bad thing for our sales. So we're looking pretty good on all those forward-looking metrics.

可能就像我們看到的 6 個月到 12 個月。 12 個月可能有點超出它。但是當你開始查看未來 6 個月內和今年年底時，我們會查看我們現在的位置與一年前甚至更早的位置，並說明我們有多少預訂書，我們通過預覽來做到這一點。我們通過業主入住率、租戶和所有這些指標現在看起來相當不錯。我們度假村的入住率一直很高。如您所知，當我們的度假村客滿時，我們 85% 的銷售額來自現場，無論是我們放入庫存的預覽，還是我們有業主入住或租戶入住，我們都獲得了很高的滲透率變成業主。所以我們讓他們佔據對我們的銷售來說並不是一件壞事。所以我們在所有這些前瞻性指標上看起來都很好。

Our next question comes from the line of Ben Chaiken with Credit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Ben Chaiken。

Just a quick one, one or two for me. First one on the rentals. 1Q, I think the full year guide is to be setting up 10% if I'm not mistaken. On rentals, 1Q was down, I believe, year-over-year. 2Q, I think Tony mentioned is going to be down, which creates a pretty strong kind of like 2H recovery. I guess my question is, is this more of a comp kind of like not issue, but a comp dynamic? Or is this in the year for the year, kind of moving parts? And I'm asking this question in the context of swinging out to '24, should things be kind of smooth from here? Or how do we think about it?

只是一個快速的，對我來說一兩個。第一個關於租金。 1Q，如果我沒記錯的話，我認為全年指南是設置10%。在租金方面，我認為第一季度同比下降。 2Q，我認為 Tony 提到的會下降，這會產生類似 2H 的強勁復甦。我想我的問題是，這更像是一種補償，而不是問題，而是動態補償？或者這是今年的一年，某種活動部件？我是在轉向 24 年的背景下問這個問題的，從這裡開始事情應該順利嗎？或者我們如何看待它？

Yes. No, it is exactly a comp dynamic. So just last year, in the second half of the year, we were -- that's when our owners had their COVID points, right, that had been extended longer and those were driving higher owner usage in the second half of the year, driving higher exchange and so with all that, yes, it gives us an easier comp here without all that owner COVID point overhang, if you will, from an occupancy perspective to drive rents. And so yes, I would -- I'm thinking about 2024 in your question, yes, it should be a little bit smoother on a '24 basis, but it is really driven by what happened last year with the COVID points overall.

是的。不，這完全是一種競爭動態。所以就在去年，在下半年，我們 - 那是我們的所有者擁有他們的 COVID 點的時候，對，已經延長了更長的時間，並且在下半年推動了更高的所有者使用率，推動更高交換等等，是的，它給了我們一個更容易的補償，沒有所有的所有者 COVID 點懸垂，如果你願意，從入住率的角度來推動租金。所以是的，我會 - 我在考慮你的問題中的 2024 年，是的，它應該在 24 年的基礎上更平滑一些，但這實際上是由去年 COVID 點的整體情況所驅動的。

Understood. That's helpful. And then just -- I'm sorry if I missed this in the VO business. I think, John, you were expecting, I think, last call that VPG would sequentially increase. Is that still your thought process even after the 1Q number, which is pretty strong?

明白了。這很有幫助。然後 - 如果我在 VO 業務中錯過了這個，我很抱歉。我想，約翰，我認為你期待的是 VPG 會依次增加的最後一次電話會議。即使在非常強大的 1Q 數字之後，這仍然是您的思維過程嗎？

Well, for the first quarter, we saw this sequential. For the second, I'm looking, I think it will be more flattish to the first quarter. We're obviously going to be down again in the second quarter versus last year given the tough comp. So -- but then as we get easier comps through the second half of the year, and overall, for the full year, we still feel good we'll be maybe down a couple of points for overall VPG year-over-year. So the full year outlook hasn't changed.

好吧，對於第一季度，我們看到了這個順序。對於第二個季度，我正在尋找，我認為它會比第一季度更加平淡。考慮到艱難的競爭，我們顯然將在第二季度與去年相比再次下滑。所以——但是隨著我們在下半年變得更容易，總的來說，全年，我們仍然感覺很好，我們可能會在整體 VPG 同比下降幾個點。因此全年展望沒有改變。

Yes. You saw a very strong Q1 and Q2 at 4,700 and 4,600 rounded last year. This year, I think it's going to stay in a lot tighter range versus what we saw. And then last year, of course, it went downward, I think, closer to 4,400 and 4,100 in Q3 and Q4. But this year, we came in pretty strong in Q1 sequentially up. And we would expect it to a little bit of seasonality in there to make it go a little bit up and down quarter-to-quarter, but not huge moves.

是的。你在去年看到了非常強勁的 Q1 和 Q2，分別為 4,700 和 4,600。今年，我認為與我們所看到的相比，它將保持在更窄的範圍內。然後去年，當然，它下降了，我認為，在第三季度和第四季度接近 4,400 和 4,100。但今年，我們在第一季度的表現相當強勁。我們預計它會有一點季節性，使其每季度略有上升和下降，但不會有太大的波動。

Got you. And then one last quick one, and this may be tough, but going into, I guess, did 1Q mix surprise in any way? And I'm asking that in the combination of VPG and tours, I know it can be a little bit tough sometimes because they're both just different levers, but VPG was pretty -- meaning did tour volume and VPG levels come in about where you were thinking? Or was one little stronger or a little weaker than expected?

明白了然後是最後一個快速的，這可能很難，但我想，1Q 混合是否以任何方式令人驚訝？我想問的是，在 VPG 和巡演的結合中，我知道有時會有點困難，因為它們只是不同的槓桿，但 VPG 很漂亮——這意味著巡演量和 VPG 水平是從哪裡來的你在想什麼？還是比預想的強一點點，弱一點點？

No. I think they came in pretty close to our expectations. I think coming into the year, we guided that we expect VPG to be down a little bit. That means in order to get the 5% to 9% growth in contract sales, you're going to have to drive it through tours a little more and that's exactly what happened. Now Q1 quarter-over-quarter, year-over-year was an easier comp from that perspective -- from a tour perspective. That's why we mentioned in the comments that, hey, that 18% increase in tourists may not happen every quarter going forward. But that was pretty much in line with what we had expected.

不，我認為他們的表現非常接近我們的預期。我認為進入今年，我們指導我們預計 VPG 會有所下降。這意味著為了獲得 5% 到 9% 的合同銷售額增長，你將不得不通過更多的巡迴演出來推動它，而這正是發生的事情。從旅遊的角度來看，現在第一季度環比、同比是一個更容易的比較。這就是為什麼我們在評論中提到，嘿，未來每個季度可能不會出現 18% 的遊客增長。但這幾乎符合我們的預期。

Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes our question-and-answer session. I'll turn the floor back to Mr. Geller for any final comments.

女士們，先生們，我們的問答環節到此結束。我會把發言權轉回 Geller 先生聽取最後的意見。

Thanks, Melissa, and thank you, everyone, for joining our call today. As we've always said, people want to go on vacation regardless of the environment, and the first quarter was no exception. In our Vacation Ownership segment, we ran nearly 90% occupancy for the quarter, grew contract sales by 10% and held VPG 30% above pre-pandemic levels. First-time (inaudible) represented more than 30% of our contract sales this quarter, up roughly 200 basis points from the prior year, and we grew our tour package pipeline to support future sales.

謝謝梅麗莎，也謝謝大家今天加入我們的電話會議。正如我們常說的，不管環境如何，人們都想去度假，第一季度也不例外。在我們的 Vacation Ownership 部分，我們本季度的入住率接近 90%，合同銷售額增長 10%，VPG 比大流行前水平高出 30%。本季度首次（聽不清）占我們合同銷售額的 30% 以上，比去年同期增長約 200 個基點，我們增加了旅遊套餐渠道以支持未來的銷售。

Our exchange and third-party management segment, despite lower inventory deposits, intervals, utilization and margins remain strong, and we grew adjusted EBITDA by 8% on a year-over-year basis in the quarter compared to the prior year, while returning $134 million to our shareholders. Looking ahead, consumers are prioritizing spending on travel over other categories and booking intentions for both domestic and international travel have remained strong. That's obviously good for our business. On behalf of all of our associates, owners, members and customers around the world, I want to thank you for your continued interest in our company and hope to see you on vacation soon. Thank you.

我們的交易所和第三方管理部門，儘管庫存存款、間隔、利用率和利潤率仍然強勁，我們在本季度與去年同期相比增長了 8% 的調整後 EBITDA，同時返回 134 美元萬給我們的股東。展望未來，消費者將旅遊支出置於其他類別之上，國內和國際旅遊的預訂意願依然強勁。這顯然對我們的業務有利。我代表我們在世界各地的所有員工、所有者、成員和客戶，感謝您對我們公司的持續關注，並希望很快能在假期見到您。謝謝。

Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路。感謝您的參與。